Mr. Kozin's interview given to Ukraine.ru website on August 21, 2023
August 21, 2023
Q: You’re back from the Baltic Sea area. How is the situation there? What is happening in Kaliningrad and what is the status of our military grouping there? How much time is needed to deploy it in the event of a threat?
A: The situation is calm. There are many tourists from all over Russia. In hot weather, the beaches on the Baltic Sea coast in Zelenogradsk, Pionersky Resort and Svetlogorsk resemble the Crimean beaches at the height of the summer season in terms of the Russian folk saying: "there is no place for an apple to fall", with meaning: there are no vacant spaces to find where to sit in to relax.
There is a lot to tell you about this year vacation, but not about the "grouping". You obviously mean the military one. It's a state secret. As is the timeframe for its full deployment. But I assume that it has long been in full combat readiness, as too many military preparations arranged by NATO Armed Forces in the Baltic Region, especially since 2009. But, the traditional Naval parade in Baltiysk [located not far away from the Polish border] at the end of July this year, as well as the visible flights of Russian Air Force combat aircraft in the skies of Russia's westernmost exclave sandwiched between two NATO member states – Lithuania and Poland – leave no doubt: this Russian land is under the reliable and combined Russian Armed Forces’ strong protection.
I am also sure that in case of any emergency situation initiated by the militaristic North Atlantic Treaty military alliance against both the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, the nearest neighbors of the Kaliningrad Region which are members of the Alliance participating in the pathologically aggressive pact, will get the most crushing multi-dimensional blow.
At the same time, I believe that the Russian military contingent in the Kaliningrad Region should also be reinforced with our national tactical nuclear weapons or TNW. After the unilateral withdrawal of the USA from the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Nuclear Missiles known as the INF accord signed back in 1987 and its complete termination in 2019, and taking into account the deployment of American TNW on the territory of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia as part of the 24-hour and year-round NATO Air Force operation "Baltic Air Policing" with dual-capable aircraft fitted with nukes that Poland is also seeking to possess, Russia has every right to deploy them on the Kaliningrad soil. Prior to the signing of the said treaty, TNW was deployed there and later have been taken back to the mainland Russia.
Q: The Ukrainian military is reinforcing its defense line on the northern border of Volyn region, bordering Belarus, despite the fact that the situation is calm and controlled. Why did they announce the reinforcement explicitly if the threat remains hypothetical? Do we need to attach importance to this and deal with it?
A: Such military ‘reinforcements‘ forged by NATO that you speak about, are intended to create a threat to the security of both the Kaliningrad Region and the Republic of Belarus. The second reason for the North Atlantic Pact's military preparations in this part of the European continent by deploying ‘forward-deployed’ combat assets is to deter the possibility of a powerful strike delivered by Russia against Ukraine from the rear, against the country which together with NATO unleashed unprovoked large-scale aggression – initially in 2014 against Donbass and later in 2022 against Russia.
And even in recent years, when Ukraine, together with Poland, began to constantly rattle sabers along the borders with Belarus – the Union State with Russia – the U.S. heavy strategic bombers with nuclear weapons on board have been landing in Poland for a long time, and the U.S. missile defense operating base has become operational in Redzikowo AFB, near Słupsk, capable of loading its 24 launchers with not only defensive but also offensive weapons, including nuclear-capable long-range U.S. cruise missiles. Such a base is located just 180 kilometers from Kaliningrad. From this base it is also possible to strike Moscow (it is located 1,300 kilometers away) and Minsk (it is located 680 kilometers from Redzikovo).
But the Alliance of the ‘transatlantic solidarity’ and Kiev should be firmly aware that Moscow and Minsk already have a guaranteed combined force response to the pumping of NATO weapons in this part of Europe. Moreover, a response that, as they say, will be given "according to the full program" [the meaning is ‘in full scale].
Q: From a military point of view, does it make sense, possible or impossible, for us to carry out an operation - let's say, to occupy Lutsk and Lvov and cut off Ukraine from Western arms supplies through Poland?
A: Carrying out such a force operation is quite possible, with the occupation of Lviv and other major cities and military bases in the northwestern and southwestern parts of Ukraine. It is also possible to continue blocking NATO arms and military equipment supplies with long-range missiles by Russian Air Force air strikes which are already being delivered. There is still some time before the real transfer of American F-16 fighter-bombers to Ukraine, which, by the way, are certified for the delivery of guided nuclear bombs. Before this hour ‘X’ when they are actually delivered it is necessary to destroy all military and civil airfields on Ukrainian territory, so that such planes should never land on Ukrainian airfields of any profile at all.
In this context, I would like to recall the recent statement made by the Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, Nikolai Oleshchuk, who recognized the fact that the said fighter-bombers have already landed on Ukrainian territory. It is probably no coincidence that U.S. presidential nominee Robert Kennedy, Jr. said that the White House-authorized deliveries of F-16s to Ukraine will not change the situation in Kiev’s favor and will not save it from collapse, but such destabilizing aircraft will pose a threat not only to Ukraine itself, but to the entire humanity. Although he did not explain his judgment, it is obvious: American ‘dual-capable’ aircraft will come into combat contact with Russian combat aircraft, which have higher tactical and technical and strike characteristics than American ones. And then what happens if they fight with each other in the sky?
Q: How much of Wagner PMC urban combat experience can be useful in the assault on Kobel?
A: My private opinion: I am against storming cities ‘head-on’, fighting for every house or alley. It would require a lot of manpower reserves. For this purpose, there are other means: complete encirclement of strategically important settlements of the enemy with a subsequent ultimatum on their surrender. No offense to the fighters of the Wagner PMC will be said, but I would still like to note that they took Artemovsk [Bakhmut in Ukrainian] completely in no one week and no one month. Yes, it is true: It took almost ten months to capture it.
Q: Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said at a Moscow Security Conference [held last week] that the possibility of a direct clash with NATO in the future seems very obvious. According to him, intensive military preparations are underway in the West, huge sums of money are being invested in it, and no one in the capitalist world will freeze their assets in weapons and a bloated army for nothing. What is the Belarusian defense minister concern?
A: This is a correct judgment made by the Belarusian Minister of Defense. He also noted that the creation of a three-thousand-strong group of NATO troops of high combat readiness on the Eastern flank of the Alliance is declared for a reason; it will obviously be intended not for defense, but for a surprise attack and to cover the strategic deployment of the main strike forces of this Western military-political bloc.
Numerous facts of military preparations of NATO member states near the borders of Russia and Belarus from the distant past, the current present and its military-strategic plans projected into the future tell us the following: we need to keep our powder dry, to be extremely vigilant and not to let ourselves be fooled by empty promises of the military-political leadership of the Alliance and the criminal Kiev’s regime.
In this context, we cannot discount the aggressive, offensive military-strategic policies of the USA and NATO oriented against Russia and China, as well as against our allies and friends – namely the U.S. national security and defense strategies, nuclear, missile defense and space strategies, as well as cyber doctrines. I came to this conclusion by analyzing six key strategies approved separately by the Trump and Biden administrations. A monograph on this topic is due to be released later this year.
Q: Does NATO have the resources to go to war with Russia and Belarus right now?
A: Yes, it does. To be more precise: partially.
But the practice of direct participation of NATO Armed Forces on the side of Ukraine in its aggression against Russia over the past year and a half shows that the Alliance HQ located in the Evere District of the Belgian capital has already begun to realize that the collective West will never be able to defeat Russia, neither with conventional nor with nuclear weapons. Especially when we have the most advanced and perspective types of non-nuclear and nuclear weapons, which the aggressive community of the Western states does not have. And we should not forget the essential fact that Russia has already practically modernized its entire traditional strategic nuclear triad, while the United States has only just begun such a long process. And the U.S. military-industrial complex has not created operational hypersonic systems yet. But we already have them.
In this regard, I would recommend that the American and Ukrainian military and political leadership memorize the Russian proverb: "Measure [fabric] seven times, cut it once". In the current situation it can be interpreted as follows: before making any strategic military-political decisions with regard to Russia and Belarus, think hard – bearing in mind: what can it lead to, first of all, to yourselves and to your belligerent satellites.
