May 30, 2025
Second round of bilateral talks in Istanbul
It is very strange that on the eve of the second round of direct Russian-Ukrainian talks to be held on June 2nd, 2025 in Istanbul a number of NATO nations expressed the desire to force Russia to take part in such discussions. The first round took place on May 16 at the same venue. Ukraine’s foreign minister has also accused Russia of stalling these peace negotiations, and demanded to share a memorandum outlining its peace terms before these talks with Kiev commences.
The fact is that it was Russia who on May 28th initially proposed such direct round of official negotiations to be held on June 2nd and its agenda. On the other hand, Ukraine confirmed its oral intention to take part in the talks only on May 30th.
As to the memorandum in question, Moscow has promised to share its text with the Ukrainian team at the Istanbul meeting. It is normal diplomatic practice if the two parties have agreed about the timing of the exchange of such documents, and noted that both texts should not be disclosed to the general public before the talks. Moscow’s memorandum outlines a path towards a peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian aggression, as well as other proposals. Ukrainian text is not known, except a short statement that it has 22 terms (items).
There are still differences between Kiev and Moscow about the tempo and the overall results of their talks. While Ukraine focuses on a cease-fire first, before moving on to negotiations for a broader peace deal, Russia repeatedly has stressed that it wants to concentrate on solving the “root causes” of the Ukrainian aggression it began in April 2014 against Donbass and later versus Russia.
Before any future political summit involving Russia, Ukraine and the USA the Kremlin first expects to see the specific results from direct “technical negotiations” between Russo-Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul, spokesman Dmitry Peskov has announced recently.
Several serious obstacles erected enroute to the talks
There are several serious obstacles facing the Istanbul negotiations.
Amongst them are massive Ukrainian drone and missile attacks against civilian infrastructure. There is an of the intensification of Ukrainian drone and missiles incursions into Russia over the past week. A total of 1,465 drones had been shot down by Russian air defenses, but nonetheless they led to civilian casualties and deaths, including among children. Vassily Nebenzia, Moscow’s envoy to the UN, has said on May 30th that Russia would go on with its Special Military Operation, if Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) do not stop killing civilians in Russia.
NATO and many EU nations are still supplying UAF with deadly weapons that also kill Russian citizens and destroy civilian infrastructure. Is there any expediency in creating a cease-fire between Kiev and Moscow when the EU and NATO are still sending lethal arms to Ukraine and when ex-president Vladimir Zelensky is continuing a forceful and violent mobilization in Ukraine?
Potential response to Taurus employment against Russia
Russia could authorize strikes on German territory if Ukraine uses German-supplied Taurus cruise missiles to attack Russian targets, a senior Russian lawmaker has warned. Andrey Kartapolov, Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee and a former deputy defense minister, said the long-range missiles require direct German military involvement to operate – making Berlin a potential participant in any such attack. “We are prepared to intercept the Taurus missiles, strike the launch sites, the operators, and, if necessary, the locations from which they are delivered,” he warned.
Kartapolov also emphasized that Ukraine lacks the technical expertise to operate such weapons independently. He claimed that earlier deliveries of long-range systems – including the U.S.-made ATACMS, Britain’s Storm Shadow, and France’s SCALP – have only been deployed with the assistance of Western military specialists.
“Ukrainian troops can press the launch button – that’s not the problem,” the chairman noted. “But they cannot program the targets. That data comes from American and European satellites. If Germany supplies these missiles, German personnel will inevitably be involved [in combat operations] on the ground.”
The Taurus KEPD 350 missile has a range of over 500 kilometers and is capable of reaching targets deep within Russian territory, including Moscow.
Berlin’s approval of Ukrainian strikes deep into Russia could result in Moscow removing its own constraints, Sergey Shoigu, Secretary of the Russian National Security Council and ex-defense minister has warned on May 30th, 2025.
Some Russian military experts are asking the President of Russia to destroy any Taurus production plant – irrespective where it is or will be located: in Germany or in Ukraine
The German Defense Ministry announced recently that it would provide Kiev with an additional €5.2 billion ($5.6 billion) in military aid. Much of the funding, according to the ministry, will support the production of long-range weaponry inside Ukraine. It does not matter where such weapons will be produced. Germany has already involved into a direct war against Russia together with Ukraine.
Though there are clear voices amongst several NATO members not to admit Ukraine into the transatlantic alliance at all. But there is no official commitment to this effect from the whole military bloc so far.
Kiev is accused of systematic torture of Russian POW. Returned Russian GIs have sadistic abuse while in Ukrainian custody. Maksim Grigoriev, who chairs an international Commission investigating Ukrainian government crimes, said his findings were based on extensive testimonies from Russian soldiers released in prisoner exchanges. He presented a report quoting statements from 30 individuals on May 30. The report cites waterboarding, electrocution, and the use of attack dogs against POWs as common Ukrainian methods.
Naturally, these are not all barriers that have been erected across the negotiation table in Istanbul.
Written by Vladimir P. Kozin
