October 12, 2022

1. Russia has confirmed attacks on infrastructure for the second day in a row and says all targets were hit

On October 11, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continued launching the massive attack using high-precision long-range air- and sea-based weapons at the facilities of military control and energy system of Ukraine. The goal of the attack has been reached, all the assigned targets have been neutralised.

Earlier in the day, Ukrainian officials and media reported more Russian long-range attacks in a rerun of October 11 strikes.

The Russian Navy launched 10 Kalibr missiles from the Black Sea. Two Geranium-2s missiles also have been used.

Andrey Sadovoy, the mayor of the city of Lvov in western Ukraine, said his city faced another blackout due to the damage inflicted by Russia. “A missile strike at a critical infrastructure object” had left some 30% of Lvov without power, the official reported on social media. He added that there were issues with the water supply in the city and urged residents to stockpile for possible cuts.

In Vinnitsa Region in central Ukraine, the head of the administration, Sergey Borzov, reported drone attacks on a local power station, but later edited his post to a more neutral report of “explosions” in his region. The operator of the Ladyzhin coal-fired power plant confirmed damage to its equipment in a drone raid on October 11.

Reports of Russian missiles being engaged by Ukrainian air defenses came from the regions of Kiev, Odessa, and Vinnitsa. In Rovno and Krivoy Rog Regions, people on social media reported blasts on the ground, presumably caused by Russian strikes.

The barrages came a day after almost all major regions of Ukraine came under a massive aerial assault. 11 key sites all across the country were damaged, according to the Ukrainian government.

Moscow targeted Ukrainian power plants and other critical facilities after what Russian President Vladimir Putin called a series of “terrorist attacks” orchestrated by Ukrainian special services on Russian soil [see item 2 of this Report for a potential new method].

President Putin said Kiev’s tactics could not be left without a response and argued that Kiev had exposed its energy sector to Russian strikes by trying for months to sabotage key Russian infrastructure.

(a) situation on the battlefield on October 11

New Russian missile strikes targeting Ukrainian military command and control sites and the country’s energy infrastructure were conducted on October 11, the Russian Defense Ministry reported during a daily briefing. The attacks hit all designated targets and “achieved their goals,” the military announced.

Two enemy companies made an unsuccessful attempt to attack the positions of Russian forces towards Krakhmalnoye (Kharkov Region) and Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People's Republic, Russia) at Kupyansk direction.  The intense action of Russian forces has resulted in driving the enemy back to its initial positions. Up to 40 Ukrainian personnel and four armoured combat vehicles have been destroyed.

Up to two company tactical groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) made another attempt to cross Zherebets river towards Raygorodki and Novovodyanoye (Lugansk People's Republic) at Krasny Liman direction.

Pre-emptive fire attack has resulted in the destruction of two ferries. Up to 20 Ukrainian personnel and four pickups have been destroyed. The company from 66th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU sent to reinforce them was caught in a minefield where a part of its military equipment was exploded. The personnel was neutralised by Russian artillery fire. Over 80 Ukrainian personnel, eight armoured combat vehicles and four pickups have been eliminated.

Three enemy tactical company groups conducted counterattacks near Nikolskoye, Novomayorskoye and Stepnoye (Donetsk People's Republic) at Zaporozhye direction. All the attacks have been repelled.  Over 30 Ukrainian personnel, one tank and three armoured combat vehicles have been eliminated. Up to two battalion tactical groups of the AFU had been attempting to conduct an offensive towards Borozenskoye, Pyatikhatki, Bruskinskoye, Ishchenka (Kherson Region, Russia) and Petrovskoye (Nikolayev Region) at Nikolayev-Krivoy Rog direction.

Over 150 Ukrainian personnel, six tanks, eight armoured combat vehicles and six motor vehicles have been eliminated.

It is reported that missile attacks today disabled a number of Starlink satellite communication terminals. In the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the situation is close to the loss of control of units.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised the command post of 66th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU near Novoye (Donetsk People's Republic, Russia), as well as 46 artillery units at their firing positions, 156 manpower and military equipment concentration areas.

Two storages of fuel for Ukrainian military equipment near Dnepropetrovsk and Pavlograd (Dnepropetrovsk region), five missile, artillery armament and munitions depots, including those of Primorye joint task force of the AFU near Nikolayev, have been destroyed. One storage of rocket-propelled projectiles for U.S.-manufactured HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) has been destroyed near Predtechino (Donetsk People's Republic).

Russian Aerospace Forces have shot down one Mi-24 helicopter of Ukrainian Air Force near Maryanskoye (Dnepropetrovsk Region). Air defence facilities have shot down seven unmanned aerial vehicles, including one Switchblade 600 attack aircraft, near Blagodatnoye, Kropivnitskoye, Nikolskoye, Petrovskoye (Donetsk People's Republic), Shirokaya Balka, Mylovoye and Borozenskoye (Kherson Region, Russia).

Moreover, 15 projectiles launched by HIMARS MLRS have been shot down near Verovka, Tyaginka, Antonovka, Lvovo, as well as six U.S.-manufactured HARM anti-radar missiles near Antonovka (Kherson Region).

(b) situation on the battlefield on October 12

Main effort of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) at Kupyansk direction was concentrated on capturing the settlement of Kislovka attacked by three Ukrainian company tactical groups and foreign mercenaries simultaneously from three directions.

The enemy succeeded in wedging into the defence and reaching the western suburbs of the settlement.

Intense action of our forces and concentrated fire of Russian artillery have resulted in dislodging the Ukrainian units from the suburbs of Kislovka, scattering and driving them back to their initial positions. The positions of Russian units at the forefront have been recovered. Moreover, the enemy was made unsuccessful attempts to launch an offensive by up to three companies towards Tabayevka, Orlyanka (Kharkov region) and Kuzemovka (Lugansk People's Republic). All the attacks have been successfully repelled by Russian forces.

Total casualties suffered by the AFU and mercenaries at the abovementioned direction constitute over 100 personnel, four tanks, three infantry combat vehicles and three Turkish-manufactured Kirpi armoured personnel carriers.

New unsuccessful enemy's attempts to cross Zherebets river have been prevented near Raygorodok, Karmazinovka, Rozovka, Makeyevka and Novolyubovka (Lugansk People's Republic, Russia) at Krasny Liman direction.

Up to three infantry combat vehicles, two armoured motor vehicles and about 60 Ukrainian personnel have been eliminated. Russian units have repelled an attempt of the AFU to launch an attack by manpower of up to a platoon supported by vehicles near Novodarovka at Zaporozhye direction. Seven Ukrainian personnel and one armoured motor vehicle have been eliminated. The enemy made attempts to launch an attack by up to two battalions at Novovoskresenskoye, Velikaya Aleksandrovka and Sukhanovo (Kherson Region) at Krivoy Rog direction.

Russian units have successfully repelled all the attacks.

One tank, 16 armoured combat vehicles, four motor vehicles and over 70 Ukrainian personnel have been eliminated.

Russian forces have launched a fire attack at the AFU units that were redeploying to launch attacks towards Kostromka and Ishchenka (Kherson Region, Russia) at Andreyevka direction.  Two tanks, three armoured motor vehicles, five pickups and over 90 Ukrainian personnel have been eliminated.

Moreover, pre-emptive fire attack has resulted in the destruction of four AFU ferries detected by reconnaissance units across Ingulets river and frustration of redeployment of Ukrainian reserve forces to the operations area.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised AFU command posts near Velikaya Kostromka (Dnepropetrovsk region), Konstantinovka (Donetsk People's Republic) and Lezhino (Zaporozhye region), 41 artillery units at their firing positions, 156 manpower and military equipment concentration areas.

The headquarters of Right Sector nationalist group, one signal station of Azov nationalist group and two provisional bases of foreign mercenaries have been neutralised near Zaporozhye. One storage of fuel for Ukrainian military equipment has been destroyed near Nikolayev. One Ukrainian Buk-M1 air defence missile system has been destroyed near Shevchenkovo (Nikolayev Region). Fighter aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces has shot down one Su-24 airplane of Ukrainian Air Force near Khristoforovka (Nikolayev region). One Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter has been shot down near Velikaya Aleksandrovka (Kherson Region).

Air defence facilities have destroyed 4 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Novaya Kamenka, Sadok (Kherson region), Yavkino (Nikolayev region) and Polnoye (Donetsk People's Republic). Twelve projectiles launched by HIMARS MLRS have been intercepted near Burgunka (Kherson region) and Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant.

2. Russia sets up fourth strategic goal in its operation in Ukraine

Moscow noted that Germany has transferred one IRIS-T air defense system to Ukraine, Spiegel reported on October 11. In total, Berlin plans to deliver four such systems to Kiev. The handover was made near the Polish-Ukrainian border October 11. Current German leaders have forgotten that Hitler killed 28 mln Soviet citizens during the WW2. Does Berlin wish to repeat this history?

The USA also said that it will sip NASAMs or National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems to Ukraine White House National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby announced. Washington will continue working with Ukraine on providing the country additional air defense capabilities amid Russia's Special Military Operation, he said on October 11. In his words, the USA will deliver the first NASAMS to Ukraine in the very near future.

Russian academic community proposed to announce “a fourth strategic goal” in the nation SMO and implement it constantly, by arguing that such massive NATO military aid to a failed and criminal Ukrainian regime have been used to kill innocent Russian civilians and will be employed to directly kill them, and such war crimes will never be forgotten in the Russian society for many decades to come.

3. President Putin met with IAEA Director General

Russia supports the work of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), President Vladimir Putin told the IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi on October 11. "We have always advocated that all states have equal access to the benefits of peaceful atom. And at the same time, we believe, we believed before and now, our position is that everything must be done to limit the spread of military nuclear technologies," Putin emphasized.

Putin proposed to Grossi to discuss the situation at the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant during the meeting that became Russian state property recently, adding that Moscow is "ready to solve all issues." The Russian president also said that elements of excessive dangerous politicization of nuclear activities can be seen, and such rhetoric should be reduced.

Naturally, one of these issues is related to continues barbaric shelling of ZNPP by Armed Forces of Ukraine. It happened before four new territories have joined Russia by October 5, 2022, and after that historic event.

It is sufficient to note that the IAEA Report issued on September 6 contained 17 faked hints that Russia has allegedly committed such attacks on ZNPP –  note: without any proof, without specifying the sites from where such attacks have been made, and without providing material evidence of such attacks, like missiles and artillery shells’ fragments, particles, etc. These 17 allegations appeared in items 22-62 on pages 9-19 of the IAEA Report released on September 6.

What are the real reasons of such hostile activity of the IAEA headed by Rafael Grossi? First, to guarantee quick return of ZNPP to Ukraine. Second, to offer to Ukraine a stable chance to continue nuclear blackmail policy in relation of Russia with the aim to stop the SMO.

4.  Russia’s FSB announced arrests over the attack on the Crimean Bridge

It has also revealed details of the alleged Ukrainian terrorist plot, including its mastermind. The FSB accused the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry of being behind the blowing up a truck laden with high explosives on the Crimean Bridge, a strategic and symbolic Russian link. It claimed that Commander, Kirill Budanov, now wanted, was personally responsible for the operation.

Russian investigators reported that at least four civilians were killed by the blast, but the number may be as high as six, given that two people are reportedly still missing.

Russia has identified 12 individuals as suspected accomplices in the plot and has arrested eight of them, the FSB said. The list of people in custody includes five Russians and three foreigners, who have citizenship of Ukraine and Armenia.

The FSB claimed that the deadly cargo came from the Ukrainian city of Odessa. The explosives were disguised as rolls with plastic construction film, which were shipped on pallets and weighed 22,770 kg, the statement said.

Investigators said the shipment left Odessa in August that was open for grain deliveries abroad and went through Ruse, Bulgaria, to Poti in Georgia. It was then moved to Armenia, a country which has a free trade agreement and a relaxed customs regime with Russia. It was then imported into Russia via Georgia on October 4, according to the timeline.

The transportation paperwork identified a non-existent firm in Crimea as the final recipient, according to the Russian agency. But the set of documents was only the latest of several used to disguise the movement of the cargo, it added.

An agent of the GUR, known under assumed name as ‘Ivan Ivanovich’ controlled the progress of the shipment, the FSB claimed. He used an anonymous ‘virtual’ phone number for communication as well as a second regular mobile number, linked to a Ukrainian citizen, it revealed.

“The investigation continues. All organizers and accomplices in the crime, including foreign citizens, will be held accountable,” the agency stressed.

5. Network of Russophobe platforms: some details to know

In order to consolidate anti-Russian forces that have fled Russia (including collaborators opposed to the Special Military Operation, representatives of the "liberal" media, foreign agents, defectors who escaped mobilization), the United States and its allies have created a network of Russophobe platforms in the former Soviet space and in European countries.

The non-governmental organization "Free Russia Foundation" (Washington, DC) formed "Reforum Space" centers in Vilnius (Lithuania) and Tallinn (Estonia), the official activity of which is to support Russian refugees.

Financial, legal and methodological assistance to this category of citizens is intended for the development and formation by them of a base of provocative information and analytical materials in various languages, the main focus of which is the negative coverage of the course of SMO in Ukraine and its impact on socio-economic and migration processes in the DNR, LNR, the Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions and Crimea.

Particular attention is paid to the inflammation of protest sentiments in Russian society and the initiation of anti-government actions in the context of the aggravation of the socio-economic situation in the country.

This work indicates that the West is preparing large-scale subversive actions against Russia and discrediting it in the eyes of its citizens and the world community.

There is an NGO in Kiev, the "Smina Human Rights Center," which implements a Western project of "independent" investigative journalism on the course of the SMO in Ukraine. The Center is essentially an analogue of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights ("SOHR"), funded from the UK. Its task is to collect evidence and form the evidence base for accusing the Russian Armed Forces of war crimes allegedly committed on the territory of Ukraine.

Similar centers are planned to be established in Germany (in Berlin) and Georgia (Tbilisi). The sponsors are the United States Agency for International Development (Washington, DC) and the EU-controlled European Endowment for Democracy (Brussels).

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin