October 15, 2022

1. The President made new announcements dealt with the third Ukrainian aggression

Putting NATO troops into direct contact with the Russian army would be a foolish step that could lead to “global catastrophe,” Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on October 14, 2022 at a press-conference, following the Central Asia-Russia summit in Astana, Kazakhstan.

“I hope that those who speak about this will have enough intelligence to prevent such a dangerous step from happening,” he added.

At the same time, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has repeatedly claimed that the US-led bloc is “not a party to the conflict” in Ukraine. In contrast, his comments amounted to “an open confirmation of NATO’s participation in the war,” former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev observed on October 12.

Ukraine de facto became a member of the alliance since 2014 because it gets NATO lethal weapons and instructors to operate such weapons, huge bags of money for acquiring such weapons (from February 2022 by now worth of more than $ 17 billion from the USA only), intelligence information, plus moral and political support of a neo-nazi regime entrenched in Kiev with the U.S. direct assistance in 2014.

Last week Zelensky again demanded tens of billions of dollars from the IMF and the World Bank and pleaded with the West for the delivery of more anti-aircraft weapons to continue its aggression against Russia it began in 2014.

Moscow has long warned the West against sending arms to Kiev, saying it will only prolong the fighting and increase the risk of direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.

There is currently no need for additional large-scale missile strikes on Ukrainian targets, Russian President Vladimir Putin underscored, and explained that the Russian military is now pursuing other objectives, as only seven of some 29 targets designated by Russia’s Defense Ministry were left as potential targets in a pin-point bombardment plan started earlier last week. 

It has to be noted that Zelensky ordered to shell and hit not only four new territories that have joined the Russian Federation, but the Russian cities located on the Russian territory proper. Such shellings are continued by Kiev uninterruptedly, each day and night.

On October 12, German Galushchenko, Ukraine’s Energy Minister, revealed that about 30 percent of the country’s energy facilities were damaged in two consecutive days of Russian strikes. Currently, according to information disseminated by Ukrainian independent sources such figure has reached 50 percent.

Vladimir Putin said Moscow does not have the intention of destroying Ukraine as a country, and currently is responding to hostile actions taken by Kiev. He explained that if Ukraine had not blocked the water supply to the nearly two and a half million people living in Crimea, Russian forces would not have had to enter the country to resume such water supply.There are some other factors that have been taken into consideration by Russia before it started defensive military operation on February 24, 2022 – exactly ten days after Zelensky began a massive military drive into Donbass.

Unprovoked Ukrainian aggression against Donbass that intensified since  February 14, 2022  - by this date and in Donbass only -  more than 1,000 civilians have been killed and nearly 4,700 civilians have been wounded, and more that 12,500 houses and social infrastructures have been destroyed or damaged in Donbass alone. On October 15 Armed Forces of Ukraine have shelled again 15 cities and villages in Donbass, by using 208 projectiles of 155 mm. One person was killed and six injured.

Russia sent troops into Ukraine on February 24, citing Kiev’s failure to implement the Minsk agreements, designed to give the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk special status within the Ukrainian state. The protocols, brokered by Germany and France, were first signed in 2014. Former Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko has since admitted that Kiev’s main goal was to use the Minsk ceasefire to buy time and “create powerful Armed Forces.” Kiev has succeeded it that goal.

Asked whether or not he regretted the decision to launch a military offensive against Ukraine, Vladimir Putin stressed that “everything that is happening today is unpleasant, to put it mildly.” Nonetheless, the Russian leader insisted that “all of this would have happened a little later, but only in worse conditions for us,” arguing that Moscow’s actions were timely and correct.

Touching upon the issue of partial mobilization the President announced that out the proposed 300,000 men 222,000 reservists are now in the Army, more precisely, in the formation units where they are undergo combat interoperability; 33,000 of mobilized men are already in the military units, but not involved in combat operations, and 16,000 men are in the units involved in combat missions.

2. Will Putin go to Bali and talk to Biden there?

Responding to a question put at the same press-conference – whether he will make a trip to Ball to attend the G20 Summit in Indonesia in November, and to hold talks with U.S. President Joe Biden – Vladimir Putin replied: “You will have to ask him if he is ready for such talks as well. To be honest, I do not see the need for it. By and large, there is no platform for any kind of negotiations at this point.”

After a number of experts, including American experts, had speculated the day before that Biden was hinting at a willingness to negotiate with Putin, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov responded. He "returned" the analogy of the American president who recently compared the situation in the world to the "Cuban Missile Crisis" and added that "the more America gets involved in supporting the Zelensky regime on the battlefield, the more the US becomes a party to the military confrontation with Russia and risks provoking a direct armed clash between the two nuclear powers." Ryabkov stressed that the U.S. is making a mistake, "expecting to achieve its victory in the geopolitical arena by raising the stakes." According to him, the U.S. side thinks that Moscow will loosen its grip, but this is not true. But Russia still hopes that Washington will realize that it is impossible to control the escalation remotely without harming itself.

Interestingly, Ryabkov's words echoed those of Tulsi Gabbard in places. The day before, the American politician, who left the Democratic Party, appeared on the popular U.S. talk show Joe Rogers on the YouTube hosting site. She stated that the U.S. was waging a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine with the goal of regime change in the Kremlin. Because of this, the world is one step away from nuclear war. Meanwhile, Gabbard disagrees with Biden's thesis that Putin is a rational player and will not use weapons of mass destruction. "We're backing him into a corner," she says. - And he has the mentality of someone who is willing to commit suicide to avoid losing face." In doing so, a member of the U.S. opposition, following Donald Trump, Ilon Musk and Dan Shapiro, demonstrates that Russia is better off negotiating with them than with the current administration.

On the other hand, by his recent Presidential decree Zelensky prohibited to conduct any political talks with Russia.

This was followed by a series of speeches by Western politicians criticizing Emmanuel Macron and Josep Borrel, who the day before had actually disavowed the possibility of a nuclear strike against Russia in case it used WMD in Ukraine, though such attacks have never be planned.

For example, a senior European diplomat told the Wall Street Journal that Josep Borrel had no right to talk about a "powerful military but not nuclear response" by the West in the event of a Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine. "Lacking the proper authority, he spoke of response options for which he is not responsible, with capabilities he does not have. So, we can only be puzzled," the publication wrote.

Meanwhile, in Britain criticized the French President for admitting that Paris does not intend to respond to Russia in case of a nuclear strike on Ukraine. The Telegraph quoted Defense Secretary Ben Wallace as saying, "This reveals President Macron's cards and violates one of the principles of nuclear deterrence - the non-disclosure of one's plans.

However, judging by media reports, the days of the British authorities are numbered roughly the same as those of the White House administration in Washington. According to The Times, the top Conservatives are negotiating to oust Liz Truss. Some 20 to 30 former ministers and influential lawmakers are trying to create a "Council of Elders" to tell her to go. "Talks are in full swing," one former minister confirmed to the newspaper.

3. Lukashenko revealed plans for Russian-Belarusian Allied Forces

Belarus has begun the deployment of a joint military force with Russia on its territory, President Alexander Lukashenko told journalists on October 14, citing “heightened tensions” on its borders, which prompted the nation to issue a major anti-terrorism alert. Earlier it was announced that Ukraine has concentrated nearly 15,000 GIs near the common border with Belarus.

“We have launched the procedures, involving the deployment of the Allied Force grouping,” the president said, adding that its “core” would be formed by Belarusian troops and “supported” by Russian units. “Everything is going according to plan,” the president remarked.

Lukashenko did not reveal where exactly the troops are to be deployed. Neither did he declared the total strength of the “allied force.” Its Belarusian “core” would include “some 70,000 soldiers,” the president said. He added, though, that one should hardly expect a large Russian contingent to be sent to serve on Belarusian soil amid the third Ukrainian aggression against Donbass and later against Russia as a whole.

This figure is much less than some Russian military experts have recently revealed by claiming that it could reach half a million men.

4. Situation on the battlefield

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continued the Special Military Operation that de facto and de jure should be called as “defensive military operation against Ukrainian and NATO aggression against Russia”.

Russian artillery neutralised the firing positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) at distant approaches in order to prevent attacks at Russian positions. The enemy has conducted no offensive operations at Kupyansk direction.

Up to 50 Ukrainian personnel, 2 tanks, 5 armoured combat vehicles, 3 motor vehicles, as well as 1 field munitions depot have been eliminated by artillery fire near Berestovoye. Redeployment of AFU company tactical group across Oskol river has been frustrated near Dvurechnoye (Kharkov Region, Russia).

Attack launched by army aviation and Russian artillery has resulted in the elimination of over 30 Ukrainian personnel, 4 armoured vehicles and 2 pickups. AFU made attempts to conduct reconnaissance by fire near Sergeyevka and Makeyevka (Lugansk People's Republic, Russia), Novosadovoye and Torskoye (Donetsk People's Republic, Russia). The involved units were driven back to their initial positions as a result of a fire attack. Up to 60 Ukrainian personnel, 2 armoured combat vehicles and 7 pickups have been eliminated.

According to updated information, attacks launched by Russian Aerospace Forces' army aviation, missile troops and artillery at the amphibious force located in the bay of Kakhovka Reservoir near Osokorovka (Kherson Region) have resulted in the elimination of over 50 Ukrainian personnel, five fast boats, two barges, five tanks and four infantry combat vehicles. The latest attempt was one of the strongest.

 The IAEA DG Rafael Grossi once again pretended that the ZNPP was again attacked by anybody else, but not by AFU. Actually, by his personally unprofessional behavior and political blindness he personally sanctioned more than 40 missile attacks of the ZNPP by AFU who used U.S-made M142 HIMERS and M777 howitzers.

High-precision attack launched by Russian Aerospace Forces at the provisional base of 2nd Battalion from 65th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU near Zaporozhye has resulted in the elimination of over 160 Ukrainian personnel accomodated in three outquarters. The enemy made unsuccessful attempts to launch an offensive towards Dudchany, Sadok and Ishchenka (Kherson region) at Nikolayev-Krivoy Rog direction.  Intense action of Russian forces have resulted in repelling all the attacks.

About 120 Ukrainian personnel, 17 armoured combat vehicles and 8 motor vehicles have been eliminated. Moreover, Russian artillery has destroyed five ferries constructed by the AFU across Ingulets River.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised 4 AFU command posts, 53 artillery units at their firing positions, 142 manpower and military equipment concentration areas. Five missile, artillery armament and munitions depots have been destroyed near Glushkovka, Kupyansk (Kharkov Region), Konstantinovka and Fyodorovka (Donetsk People's Republic, Russia), as well as Novaya Kaluga (Kherson Region, Russia).

Russian air defence facilities have shot down 1 Su-25 airplane of Ukrainian Air Force near Kiselyovka (Nikolayev Region).

Moreover, 10 unmanned aerial vehicles, including one U.S.-manufactured Switchblade-600, have been intercepted near Poltava (Lugansk People's Republic, Russia), Petrovskoye, Staromayorskoye, Nikolskoye (DPR), Dmitrenko, Tomarino, Chaykino (Kherson Region) and Tavricheskoye (Dnepropetrovsk Region).

In addition, 18 projectiles launched by HIMARS and Olkha MLRS have been destroyed in air near Svobodnoye (DPR) and Novaya Kakhovka (Kherson Region). Two U.S.-manufactured HARM anti-radar missiles have been shot down near Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin