Козин Владимир Петрович

Дата рождения: 

29.05.1948

Козин Владимир Петрович —  член-корреспондент Российской академии естественных наук, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук Российской Федерации.

Кандидат исторических наук, имеет ученое звание «старший научный сотрудник», квалификационный разряд «Государственный советник Российской Федерации 2 класса», дипломатический ранг «советник 1 класса» и звание «Почетный работник МИД Российской Федерации», а также звание «Ветеран труда».

Окончил Московский государственный институт международных отношений МИД СССР (факультет «Международные отношения» в 1972 г.), аспирантуру Дипломатической академии МИД СССР (в 1981 г.) и по направлению МИД России — Королевскую Академию оборонных исследований (Лондон, в 1995 г.).

В 1972-2012 гг. занимал различные должности в МИД СССР и МИД Российской Федерации, в том числе в 2008-2010 гг. работал начальником Отдела анализа и прогнозирования ситуации в АТР Департамента азиатско-тихоокеанского сотрудничества,  в 2010-2012 гг. — заместителем директора Департамента информации и печати, руководителем Информационно-аналитического центра МИД России.

В 2011-2013 годы являлся членом Экспертного совета Межведомственной рабочей группы при Администрации Президента Российской Федерации по взаимодействию с НАТО в сфере ПРО (со времени создания Экспертного совета и до его расформирования в октябре 2013 года).

В 2012-2017 годах занимал должность главного советника директора Российского института стратегических исследований при Администрации Президента Российской Федерации.

С 2017 по 2023гг. — ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО (Университета) МИД России.

Автор ряда монографий, в том числе:

  • The U.S. Space Force: It Key Tasks and Future Capabilities. Moscow: Sabashnikov’s Publishing House. 2022. 512 PP. (на английском).
  • Космические силы США: их ключевые задачи и будущие потенциалы. Москва: Изд-во им. Сабашниковых. 2022. 444 С.
  • U.S. Key Military Strategies: Their National and Global Consequences. Moscow: Sabashnikov’s Publishing House. 2019. 348 PP. (на английском).
  • Ключевые военные стратегии США: их национальные и международные последствия. Москва: Изд-во им. Сабашниковых. 2021. 384 С.
  • Evolution of the U.S. Strategic and Tactical Nuclear Weapons, and Their Employment Specifics in the 21st Century. Moscow: Sabashnikov’s Publishing House. 2020. 1232 PP. (на английском).
  • U.S. Military Space Policy: Key Guidelines and Future Capabilities. Moscow: Sabashnikov’s Publishing House. 2019. 312 PP. (на английском).
  • Эволюция стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений США и особенности их применения в XXI веке. Москва: Изд-во им. Сабашниковых. 2019. 1086 С.
  • Эволюция системы ПРО США и позиция России. 2018. Пекин (КНР). 374 стр. (на китайском).
  • Perspectives of the 1987 INF Treaty (The White Book). Moscow: Sabashnikov’s Publishing House. 2018. 108 PP. (на английском).
  • Перспективы реализации Договора о ликвидации РСМД (Белая книга). Москва: Изд-во им. Сабашниковых. 2017. 108 С.
  • U.S. Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Reduction or Modernization? Moscow. Analytical Agency «Strategic Stability». Sabashnikov’s Publishing House. 2017. 556 PP. (на английском).
  • «Чикагская триада» США и НАТО и ее последствия для России«. Москва: Изд-во им. Сабашниковых. 2016. РИСИ. 210 С.
  • Evolution of the U.S. Missile Defense Beyond 2040 and Russia’s Stance. Moscow: Sabashnikov’s Publishing House. 2016. 446 PP. (на английском).
  • Тактическое ядерное оружие США: сокращения или модернизация?. Москва: РИСИ. 2015.  496 C. (расширенный вариант).
  • Тактическое ядерное оружие США: сокращения или модернизация? Москва: РИСИ. 2015. 352 C.
  • Военная политика и стратегия США в геополитической динамике XXI века. 2014. Москва: Изд-во «Граница». 368 C. (в соавторстве; доля участия 50%).
  • Evolution of the U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense and Russia’s Stance (1945-2013). Moscow: Inforos. 2014. 351 PP. (расширенный вариант).
  • Ядерная доктрина и прогноз военной политики США до 2075 года: критический анализ, практические рекомендации. 2014. Saarbrucken (FRG): LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. 75 С.
  • Эволюция противоракетной системы США и позиция России. 2013. Москва: РИСИ. 384 С.
  • Evolution of the US Ballistic Missile Defense System and Russia’s Stance. Moscow: InfoRos. 2013.142 PP
  • Роль и место ВМС в современной мировой политике. Москва: Издательство Дипломатической Академии МИД СССР. 1991. 46 С
  • Проблема демилитаризации Индийского океана. Москва: Издательство Дипломатической Академии МИД СССР. 1990. 193 С.
  • Масштабы военной деятельности США в космическом пространстве и проблема иммунитета спутников гражданского и небоевого военного назначения (с авторским проектом международного соглашения об иммунитете таких спутников). Москва: Издательство Дипломатической Академии МИД СССР. 1987. 48 С.
  • К вопросу обуздания гонки военно-морских вооружений: соотношение военно-морских вооружений и характер военно-морской деятельности Организации Варшавского договора и НАТО. Москва: Издательство Дипломатической академии МИД СССР. 1986. 38 С.

За монографию «Тактическое ядерное оружие США: сокращения или модернизация?» В.П. Козин удостоен премии имени генерал-полковника В.В. Коробушина (РВСН), присужденной Академией военных наук Российской Федерации (2015 г.), а также стал лауреатом Российской Академии естественных наук (2016 г.).

Имеет также свыше 500 различных публикаций по проблематике контроля над вооружениями в виде статей и отдельных глав в коллективных монографиях.

Награжден медалью «В память 850-летия Москвы», медалью «В ознаменование возвращения Крыма», Почетной грамотой Министра обороны Российской Федерации С.К. Шойгу и Почетной грамотой руководителя Администрации Президента Российской Федерации А. Э. Вайно, Почетной грамотой Начальника Генерального Штаба Вооруженных Сил России – Первого заместителя Министра обороны России В.В. Герасимова, а также большим знаком Совета Безопасности России «Совет Безопасности. Российская Федерация», медалью РИСИ «За заслуги» и нагрудным юбилейным знаком «МИД Российской Федерации. 200 лет», медалью «За заслуги» МГИМО МИД России. Награжден дипломами Международного военно-технического форума Вооруженных Сил России «Армия-2015», «Армия-2016» и «Армия-2018» за лучшие доклады, представленные на этих мероприятиях.

Неоднократно принимал участие в научно-практических конференциях, проведенных в России и ряде зарубежных стран в качестве докладчика.

Владеет английским языком.

 

Building up the U.S. and NATO forward-based nukes in Europe and Ukraine: armageddonish-type goal

 

October 6, 2023

 

In my Report # 291 released on September 3, 2023, I addressed some of the issues related to the U.S. nuclear weapons buildup in Europe and its willingness to deploy them in Ukraine by using U. S. dual-capable aircraft F-16. A number of readers have asked me for more information on this topic. The issue is much wider than dilemma of F-16 deliveries to Ukraine.


The United States intends to expand its nuclear presence on the European continent as a whole, in particular by additional deployment of heavy strategic bombers with nuclear weapons on board; increasing the number of dual-capable aircraft or DCA in NATO's Baltic Air Policing operation; and supplying Ukraine with fighter jets certified to deliver F-16 nuclear weapons


Therefore, the following analysis has three respective parts: deployment of the U.S. strategic nuclear forces in Europe, implementation of NATO’s “Baltic Air Policing” in the Baltic Sea area, and negative consequences of the potential delivery of F-16 DCA to Ukraine. The response will be given to a logical question: “Will all these factors increase the security on European continent and in Ukraine in particular?”

1. The first nuclear strike in Europe: strategic means for delivery

In October 2022 President Joseph Biden released its updated nuclear strategy called National Posture Review or NPR in short. His NPR is not less aggressive than Donald Trump’s similar document, as one U.S. study claimed.


The 2022 U.S. nuclear strategy clearly stated that its nuclear weapons will remain in the U.S. military capability for an indefinite period of time in the future


Its nuclear weapons will constitute an important element of a combined and broader triad than nuclear, which includes three operationally linked components: nuclear missile weapons, missile defense, and conventional forces. This is the so-called ‘Chicago Triad’ approved at the North Atlantic Alliance Summit in Chicago in May 2012. The term is unofficial, this is the term proposed and used by by the author. It is not incorporated in American official documents or research papers. But it makes sense to use it. Especially since this triple mixture of strategic and tactical tools of modern warfare has been repeated by all subsequent summits of that military alliance.

The 2022 U.S. Nuclear Strategy drew attention to the possibility of escalating combat operations conducted without the use of nuclear weapons into military operations that will be conducted with the use of nuclear weapons. It should be recalled that in recent years, the U.S. Armed Forces have arranged large-scale conventional military exercises that usually ended by delivering dummy nuclear strikes, especially very close to the borders of the Russian Federation, to the territory of Russia’s allies and friends.

The U.S. NPR of 2022 recorded a willingness to extend the employment of nuclear weapons, which have not been used in many decades since the U.S. atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. To be fair, after these two tragic dates the United States intended to use its nuclear weapons in three regional conflicts (Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq), as well as in two acute and dramatic crises erupted between the USSR and the United States/NATO (the Cuban nuclear missile crisis and the Berlin military confrontation in the 1960s). So, in total: in five cases.

In words, the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review described the guidance for of reducing the readiness level of U.S. nuclear forces. That sounded positive. But when and at what level? And what is the basis for that viewpoint? What policy initiatives and military-technical measures have been articulated? In deeds, the situation is different. Have a look at this Table borrowed from the SIPRI Yearbook released in 2023:

It shows: the USA has formidable strategic and tactical nuclear arsenal to be used in the first strike.


Three components of the U.S. strategic nuclear triad will gradually be replaced.  The Joseph Biden Administration reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to the modernization of the U.S. nuclear triad and to the modernization programs for each of the components of that force structure


Between 2023 and 2027, the development of the new “Sentinel” U.S. ICBM, previously referred to in U.S. documents as a “ground-based strategic deterrent” or GBSD ICBM, will continue. It will replace the Minuteman-3 ICBMs in their entirety with the aim , that the number of Sentinel’s will remain unchanged – to have exactly 400 missiles as before. They will carry two types of warheads: “W87-0/Mk21” and “W87-0/Mk21A.” The appearance of these ICBMs will disprove the opinion of some Western and Russian experts who claim that the U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces were going to switch over to a “dyad”, meaning that they will completely eliminate ground-based intercontinental-range nuclear missiles from the traditional strategic triad. This is an incorrect judgment. So far, it has never been happened in real terms.

About the Naval component of the U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces: since 2030 “Ohio”-class SSBNs will be replaced by “Columbia”-class nuclear-powered missile submarines. Their total number of them will be brought minimally to 12 vessels. They will retain their former Trident II D5 SLBMs, which will complete the second phase of their service life extension program. The “W88 Alt 370” nuclear warhead replacement program will be implemented. Some SSBNs will keep SLBMs with low-yield warheads “W76-2”. It should be recalled that according to the U.S. political and military leadership’s views, these are warheads with a yield of 5 kilotons and less.

In parallel, the United States will assist the UK in replacing the nuclear warheads on British SSBNs.

The air-based Strategic Nuclear Forces or SNF will be represented by the modernized “B-52H” heavy strategic bomber (HSB) that will remain in service until 2050, as well as the new “B-21 Raider” strategic aircraft that will replace aging “B-2A” strategic bomber. The estimated total number of “B-21” should be at least 100 aircraft. There will be a replacement of the SLCM with an extended-range nuclear missile with a “W 80-4” nuclear warhead to be mounted on such HSBs that will be in ‘stand-off position’ in designated waiting areas in Europe while to be on regular patrol.

It was recorded that the U.S. side would like to reduce the readiness of its adversaries to launch a first nuclear strike or FNS against the United States. But the White House itself has not abandoned the notion to deliver a first nuclear strike. And it does not intend to cancel such FNS formula it in the future. But at the same time, no practical initiatives have been put forward to achieve this goal.


Since 2014, USSTRATCOM has integrated bombers more prominently into EUCOM planning and activated a standing war plan for Europe for first time since the end of the Cold War


Increased deployments in Europe in the form of revival of Cold War-style long-range strike exercises and occasional port call visits by the U.S. SSBNs to the United Kingdom are taking place. In 2019 five-aircraft “B 52H” formation flew over Norway and three-aircraft “B 52H” formation crossed the sky over the Baltic region. Several “B-52” that flew from Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota conducted interoperability training with aircraft from the Baltic Air Policing mission during a long-range strategic Bomber Task Force or BTF mission throughout Europe and the Baltic region. The bombers participated in the Baltic Operations or BALTOPS maritime exercise on June 7-16, 2020. Some long-range Bomber Task Force missions to Europe that time “have sharpened the Air Force’s ability to operate in Europe and will continue”, according to Air Force General Jeff Harrigian, the commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe-Air Forces Africa. 

Two “B-2” bombers from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, two “B-52H” from Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota, and two “B-52H” from Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana together conducted a strategic bomber mission in Europe on May 7, 2020 according to U.S. Strategic Command. The mission, which was designed to highlight the United State “synchronized strategic deterrence,” also included Indo-Pacific Command’s zone of operations.

Additionally, some “B-1” from the 28th Bomb Wing at Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota carried out a Bomber Task Force mission in Europe and the Black Sea region accompanied by Ukrainian “Su-27 Flankers” and “MiG-29” Fulcrums, and Turkish “KC-135”s for the first time ever on May 29, 2020.The coordinated events were conducted from February 3-12, 2020 and included a Bomber Task Force flight of “B-52H”. On February 3, 2020 a USAF “B-52H” bomber from Minot Air Force Base, North Dakota, rendezvoused with a “B-52H” from Anderson Air Force Base, Guam, in the vicinity of Misawa Air Base, Japan, as part of a combined BTF and Continuous Bomber Presence mission. The two bombers also conducted bilateral joint training with 13 Japan Air Self Defense Force or JASDF F-2, four F-4, and 28 F-15, and six U.S. Air Force F-16 in the vicinity of Japan before returning to Andersen AFB.


The 2022 Nuclear Strategy at the same time openly stated the need to improve the reliability of the North Atlantic Alliance’s nuclear capability, as well as to foster closer cooperation between the U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces and the nuclear forces of the United Kingdom and France


The combat readiness of medium-range DCA and the possibility of using the new high-precision guided “B 61-12” air-dropped bombs in forward-deployed areas, i.e., near Russian territory have not been reduced. Moreover, the level of operational readiness of ICBMs, SSBNs, and HSBs has not radically decreased, either. This can be seen from large-scale nuclear exercises of the U.S. and NATO, regular patrols of European and Pacific airspaces by the U.S. heavy strategic bombers near the borders of Russia and China, 24-hour multinational operations of the alliance Air Force with DCA flights close to Russian borders in the framework of the NATO operation Baltic Air Policing in the skies of the three Baltic States and Poland that commenced in March 2004 where NATO DCA are involved.

NATO countries have offered 19 their military airfields to land U.S. HSBs at any time  and without requesting the relevant permission from them. This factor cannot be neglected. All of them, having received their ‘permanent residence’ at military bases in the UK began practicing flights and landings at the Estonian airbase in Amari several years ago. U.S. HSBs like B-1B, B-52H and B-2A strategic bombers got the permission from London to land at the British AFBs any time.

2. NATO Air Force Operation: Baltic Air Policing

NATO’s Air Force Operation called Baltic Air Policing has been implemented during about last 20 years. It has added TNW deployment to four European NATO nations (Belgium, Germany, Italy sand the Netherlands) plus to Asian part of Turkey.


It is an extremely dangerous and destabilizing action from the point of view of Russia's national security interests. It is reminiscent of the October 1962 "Cuban Missile Crisis" initiated by Washington who initially deployed its NW in Turkey and Italy before that


The decision to conduct Baltic Air Policing Operation was made at the North Atlantic Council meeting on March 17, 2004, under the dubious pretext of "protecting the airspace of the Baltic States," as if someone had ever encroached on their airspace.

Almost two weeks later, after this decision was taken, the first NATO medium-range combat aircraft appeared on a rotational basis in the skies of the three Baltic States – Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia – who joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as full-fledged members in 2004. The duration of this operation was determined as year-round, but at first with combat aircraft flying out for a few hours a day. But then their time in the air was brought to round-the-clock. Subsequently, the airspace of Poland, which became a member of the alliance in 1999, was also included in the zone of the operation that covers the airspace of the three named U.S. satellites in the transatlantic alliance and partly the sky over the Baltic Sea.

This operation was managed by the North Atlantic Air Force Joint Operations Center located in Uedem, Germany.

Half of the 31 current Allied nations have contributed fighter and fighter-bomber aircraft of various types, refueling and reconnaissance aircraft to this NATO air operation. Combat aircraft of the Air Forces of Belgium, the UK, Denmark, France, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Turkey, Norway, the Netherlands, Spain, the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany began to take part in it on a rotational basis.

The combat aircraft of the above-mentioned alliance of the “transatlantic solidarity” actively use not only the airspace of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland, but also their air bases located, respectively, in the area of Latvian Lielvarde, Lithuanian Zokniai, Estonian Amari and Polish Lodz (Lask Air Force Base). After Poland and the three Baltic States joined the alliance, all these air bases underwent thorough modernization, after which they became multifunctional. So multifunctional that they can receive all three types of heavy strategic bombers in service with the United States, namely the B-1B, B-52H and B-2A strategic bombers.

As it can be seen from this list of participating countries, all three nuclear powers of the West, i.e. the UK, the USA and France, have allocated their air units for the specific Air Forces’ exercises. They began to steadily use in it their ‘dual-purpose’ fighter-bombers capable of carrying not only conventional weapons, but also nuclear weapons in the form of free-fall bombs, which sometimes exceed the power of nuclear warheads of some United States strategic intercontinental ballistic missiles of the Minuteman-3 type.

As it was noted in a March 2019 NATO press release, U.S. strategic nuclear forces sent six long-range B-52H heavy strategic bombers to the United Kingdom at once – as it has been announced, "to conduct a series of training events over Europe." But what those ‘activities’ were became clear a little later. At the end of last year, one of the heavy strategic bombers of this type carried out a training bombing raid on a Lithuanian firing range 60 kilometers from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad Oblast. U.S. B-52H has landed in the Check Republic in February 2022 before Russia has launched its Special Military Operation to prevent Ukrainian-NATO aggression against Russia.

Commenting on the situation with the appearance of American heavy strategic bombers in the Baltic region, a member of the Latvian Parliament tried to shift the conversation to a slightly different aspect, saying that the Pentagon is not building special storage facilities for nuclear weapons in Latvia. It may be true that it is not building any, but this does not mean that there are no nuclear weapons on board the designated delivery vehicles belonging to the United States and other NATO members. At the same time, it cannot be said that they have them on board, since the Russian Federation has never conducted any military-technical inspections in this regard and still does not arrange them, simply due to the absence of a corresponding agreement with both Washington and the capitals of all three Baltic States.


NATO continues to strengthen the Air Force formation and to expand the combat missions of the Baltic Air Policing Operation


On June 14, 2016, the then Deputy Secretary General of NATO, Alexander Vershbow, met with the defense ministers of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to sign a new agreement on mechanisms for organizing the use of airspace in support of the NATO Air Force's air patrol mission and other airspace activities in the Baltic Sea region.

During the signing ceremony, Alexander Vershbow emphasized that this agreement between the alliance and the three Baltic States will contribute to "enhancing the ability to prepare for operations in the airspace of the Baltic Sea Region." The question arises: to prepare for what actions? The then deputy Secretary General of the transatlantic alliance also added that the signed document sends "a clear signal of the Alliance's shared responsibility and determination to defend the territory and populations of NATO countries." To defend whom?

According to the transatlantic alliance's new Joint Air Power Strategy - in the original: NATO's Joint Air Power Strategy - approved on June 26, 2018, the Air Forces of its member states should be able to operate "in any terrain and under any conditions," including in heavily defended airspace and in areas with intense air traffic. The Baltic region falls under this interpretation of air activity proposed by the bloc's headquarters. Reaffirming the readiness to continue current air operations in various regions of the world, the named document aimed the North Atlantic Alliance states at continuing the development of additional offensive Air Force doctrines and the creation of new capabilities in this area.

Official NATO strategic documents indicated that the round-the-clock defense of the airspace of the Baltic States is based on the fact that they do not have a sufficient number of combat aircraft that could undertake the designated task. However, the peculiarities of such a long operation of the NATO Air Force in the Baltic skies with the practicing of specific tactical and strategic tasks indicate that it pursues offensive combat objectives of a wide spectrum.

As announced at the NATO summit held in Brussels in July 2018, the bloc agreed on a strategy for joint air capabilities that will be a key factor for the Alliance Air Force's peacetime air patrol missions. It also applied to Baltic Air Policing Operation.

Judging by the statements of NATO's top military and political leadership made several times, all these land, sea and air-based groupings can be "reinforced" to an even greater extent if necessary. Naturally, not because of the Coronavirus.

This operation, which some Russian specialists, who are not familiar with its key functional purpose, incorrectly translate its official name from English as "Baltic Air Police Operation", is by no means formed as some kind of "police mission" to control and ensure air traffic safety in this part of the European continent. The named operation in real terms is a forward-looking air combat action with far-reaching goals.

Why is the NATO Air Force's Baltic Air Policing Operation described as extremely dangerous and destabilizing? Obviously, it is not only because its air grouping complements the several forward-deployed multinational land-based combat groupings of the North Atlantic Alliance that have been also established on the territory of the four states of the Eastern and Southern zone of the Baltic Sea mentioned earlier, as well as the naval forces of their alliance permanently stationed in the Baltic Sea.

From the point of view of Russia’s national security, another circumstance is also significant.


It is a clear nuclear factor, which is present in the named airborne operation. Especially since its ‘zone of responsibility’ covers not only the skies over the three Baltic States and Poland, but also the airspace that extends over a part of the Baltic Sea adjacent to the territory of the Kaliningrad and Leningrad Regions


NATO decided to deploy Airborne Warning and Control System or AWACS surveillance planes to Shauliai, Lithuania. The first of two aircraft arrived at the end of September 2023 and will fly missions “to monitor Russian military activity near the Alliance’s borders”, but de facto with the aim to continue Ukrainian-NATO aggression against Russia. NATO has boosted its air presence in the eastern part of the transatlantic alliance using fighter jets, surveillance planes and tankers. In September 2023 the United States deployed four additional F-16 fighter aircraft to Romania to enhance NATO’s Balkan Air Policing mission.

Calling the deployment of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's nuclear-capable aircraft carriers "planned," its spokeswoman Oana Lungescu acknowledged that "it shows that the U.S. nuclear umbrella protects Europe and demonstrates the unique capabilities that the U.S. can deploy to Europe in a crisis situation." So, this is the real nuclear umbrella after all, and not some innocuous routine "Air Forces Patrol"?

Because of this potential nuclear component, such an alliance Air Force operation could well be considered a "Baltic Nuclear Crisis" or "Cuban Missile Crisis No. 3," given the actual "Cuban Missile Crisis No. 1" created by the United States in October 1962 and logically named "Cuban Missile Crisis No. 2." which was initiated by the members of the North Atlantic Alliance in December 1979, when the Alliance gave the "go-ahead" for the deployment of American nuclear ballistic missiles of the Pershing type and land-based Tomahawk cruise missiles in a number of European countries.

It seems that it is for the above-mentioned reasons that the Russian side needs to constantly raise before the United States and the other North Atlantic Treaty Organization States participating in this operation the issue of a complete cessation of the patrolling of the airspace of the Baltic States and the Baltic Sea area by NATO dual-capable combat aircraft and American heavy strategic bombers. Unfortunately, official statements by the Russian side on arms control issues hardly ever criticize this operation. Not everyone is even aware of its existence. Or they do not sufficiently realize its harmful consequences for both the regional situation and the global situation.

Raising the question from the Russian side about its complete cessation should be consistently active in any case. Such a demand should also appear as a response to the insistent statements of the United States and NATO that insist that Russia unilaterally reduce its types of weapons or reduce its military activities on its territory to zero, including in the Baltic area, particularly in the area of the Kaliningrad and Leningrad Regions.

3. Implications of F-16 DCA deliveries to Ukraine

The United States intends not only to expand its nuclear presence on the European continent, in particular by additional deployment of heavy strategic bombers with nuclear weapons on board; increasing the number of dual-capable aircraft in NATO's Baltic Air Policing operation. The USA intends to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets certified to deliver nuclear weapons.

This U.S. decision potentially leads to an escalation of nuclear conflict not only in Ukraine, but also in other Eastern European countries. This is due to the fact that back in 2017 at the U.S. Air Force Base Kertland (New Mexico) it was announced that a modification of the B61 nuclear bomb was tested with an F-16 aircraft. As specified by the press service of the military facility, the test was conducted with a B61-12 warhead (without a nuclear charge), which was dropped down at the Nellis Testing Site in Nevada from an F-16 fighter-bomber. The test was conducted as part of a program to extend the B61's service life by upgrading its nuclear and non-nuclear components while improving its reliability and the robustness of its safety systems. As the base command explained, this was "the first B61-12 test utilizing the F-16".

This announcement by the U.S. Air Force was not unexpected. Moreover, it was expected. Developed in 1974 and put into service in 1978, the F-16 has F-16C, F-16D and F-16 MLO modifications that are capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

Therefore, if any of these modifications are transferred to Ukraine, it will mean that the U.S. will authorize other NATO countries (so far, the Netherlands and Denmark, but there will probably be others) to transfer tactical nuclear weapon carriers – B61-12 and B83 bombs – to Ukraine. The features of the B-61-12 bombs, as the most massively deployed in Europe, are discussed below. Regarding the B83 bombs, one should note the following: the B83 variable-power thermonuclear gravity bomb was developed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in the late 1970s. It entered service in 1983.


With a maximum nuclear warhead yield of 1.2 megatons, the B83 is currently the most powerful U.S. nuclear weapon


This U.S. decision potentially leads to an escalation of nuclear conflict not only in Ukraine, but also in other Eastern European countries.

The combat radius of the F-16 is from 800 to 1700 km (depending on the loaded munition), and operational distance of missiles fixed from under its wing – up to 1900 km. Thus, by giving Ukraine F-16s, which are capable of delivering nuclear warheads anywhere in the European part of Russia, the USA. and NATO are deepening the implementation of the European strategy of nuclear sharing arrangements, which implies access of non-nuclear-weapon states that have F-16s in service to U.S. nuclear arsenals in Europe. With potential Ukraine’s F-16s, no one will be able to tell for sure which munition a particular crew has taken on board.

In this context Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said: "...in the course of combat operations, the Russian military will not examine whether each particular aircraft of the specified type is equipped for the delivery of nuclear weapons or not". Lavrov also noted that by transferring F-16 fighter jets to Kiev the USA and NATO are creating a threat of using nuclear weapons in Europe.

He called this an example of a very dangerous development – the appearance of these airplanes capable of carrying nuclear weapons to the Kiev regime will be seen by Russia as a threat from the West in the nuclear sphere. "We have informed the nuclear powers – the United States, Britain and France – that Russia cannot ignore the ability of these planes to carry nuclear weapons," the minister said, adding that "no assurances will help here." It should also be noted that according to many Russian and foreign experts, the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine may mean that the USA will try to find a reason to transfer tactical nuclear weapons to Ukraine as well.

Thus, the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine almost completely destroys the NPT and, accordingly, the Euro-Atlantic subsystem of global nuclear security. In addition, the increase in the number of F-35 fighter jets on the continent is a very strong indication of irresponsible U.S. activity that risks destroying the global nuclear security system by building up nuclear capabilities in Europe.


In 2021, the F-35A was certified to use the B61-12 guided nuclear bomb, which has an adjustable charge capacity (0.3; 1.5; 10 and 50 kt).


Recall that the U.S. Air Force F-35A fighters were developed in the early 2000s, the first flight took place in December 2006, serial production began in 2011, and the start of operation – in 2012. To date, more than 960 aircraft have been produced, which, in addition to the USA, have been delivered to Europe (the UK, Netherlands, Italy, Norway, Denmark, Poland, Germany), as well as to Australia, Japan, South Korea and Israel. Canada, Finland, Switzerland, Belgium, Singapore and Turkey are planning to purchase F-35s of various modifications (F-35A as ground-based fighter with conventional takeoff and landing for the Air Force; F-35B as short takeoff and vertical landing fighter; F-35C - deck fighter for the Navy). In total, it is planned to build about 3.5 thousand airplanes.

Thus, the F-35 aircraft is becoming the main fighter-bomber of NATO and U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East – that is, virtually all of our eventual adversaries, and we should be aware of the threat this aircraft poses, including for the destruction of the international global nuclear security system.

What are technical specifics of the F-35?

The F-35 aircraft has a speed of up to 1930 km/h (1.6 M), a combat radius of up to 1080 km without fuel tanks and aerial refueling, and is capable of carrying a very wide range of weapons: AIM-9, AIM-132 and AIM-120 air-to-air missiles, as well as Storm Shadow cruise missiles (already supplied to Ukraine by the UK) and AGM-158, JDAM guided bombs weighing up to 910 kg, CBU-103, CBU-104 and CBU-105 cluster bombs, AGM-154 guided aerial bombs and Brimstone anti-tank missiles (reportedly also supplied to Ukraine). Norway and Australia are funding work to adapt the advanced JSM anti-ship missile to the F-35.

According to the manufacturer, the F-35 will be able to launch these missiles and guided bombs from internal compartments at its maximum supersonic speeds.

Specifically for the F-35 fighter-bomber, the four-barrel GAU-22/A aircraft gun of 25 mm caliber was created. On the F-35A modification, the gun is installed inside the aircraft, with 180 rounds of ammunition. For modifications F-35B and F-35C developed a suspended container with a set of 220 shells, mounted under the fuselage. When creating the container used technology to reduce visibility. GAU-22/A cannons are armed with 25×137 mm FAP projectiles manufactured by Rheinmetall (Germany, planning a joint projects with Ukraine), in the U.S. Air Force are labeled PGU-48/B. The projectiles are designed to destroy ground and air targets, including armored ones. It is stated that the PGU-48/B has a tungsten core inside. The GAU-22/A has a rate of fire of up to 55 rounds per second with a muzzle velocity of over 1 km/sec. The weight of the projectile is over 200 grams.


In addition to conventional weapons, the F-35 is capable of carrying two B61 tactical nuclear bombs with a yield of 0.3 to 340 kt on internal suspension.


In the long term, the F-35A will replace the F-16 fighter as NATO's primary tactical nuclear weapons carrier.

In January 2023, a group of eight Dutch-owned F-35 fighter jets arrived in Poland to participate in two different NATO missions. At the same time, four fighters have already started patrolling NATO airspace over Eastern Europe since February 2022, and some others – since March 2023.

It should be noted that the Netherlands, a country that is ready to transfer F-16 fighters to Ukraine in the near future, regularly participates in "joint missions" where the use of nuclear weapons is practiced. This includes aircraft from so-called non-nuclear-weapon states. Aircraft involved in such missions are mandatorily equipped with equipment for the combat use of nuclear bombs. This gives grounds to say that the Dutch F-35s carry such equipment on board and are integrated into the NATO system of nuclear warfare in the European theater of combat operations.

It should be noted that one of the places where American nuclear bombs are stored in Europe is the Dutch Volkel airbase, where F-35 fighter jets are also based. And since carriers of nuclear weapons cannot be far from the stored warheads during the period of aggravation of the military and political situation, it cannot be ruled out that American thermonuclear bombs are also stored at one of the landing airfields in Poland. The most likely one is the Lask Air Force Base. Moreover, a U.S. Air Force detachment has been permanently stationed at Lask AFB since November 2012. Additional units periodically rotate to the base for exercises. These forces are believed to have nuclear capabilities and have joined nuclear exercises with NATO. Thus, F-16C/D fighter jets equipped to carry nuclear bombs have been periodically serviced at the Polish Lask AFB since 2014.

This confirms the high probability of deployed nuclear weapons at this base. It is currently the closest F-35 deployment base to Russia. It should be noted that Poland signed a contract with the United States to purchase 32 F-35A Lightning II fighter jets in January 2020. Manufacturing of the first aircraft for Poland was scheduled for 2022, Warsaw will receive the first aircraft no earlier than 2024. Earlier, a vice president of Lockheed Martin said that the Polish Air Force plans to deploy a squadron of 16 F-35A aircraft in the city of Kielcen, at the 21st Tactical Air Base Swidwin near the Baltic Sea coast. Another squadron of fighter jets will be stationed near the town of Laska in central Poland.

In addition, the F-35 fighters have now been equipped with the Valkyrie squadron, which is based at the Lakenheath AFB in the UK. It has a total of 27 F-35A Lightning II aircraft.

The number of fifth-generation fighters in Europe will increase. In September 2021, Air Force General Todd Walters, commander of the U.S. European Command and supreme commander of NATO's Combined Armed Forces in Europe, announced the plans of the alliance member states to deploy a total of 450 F-35 fighters of the national air force at 12 of their bases.


Thus, the deployment of F-35A Lightning II aircraft in Europe clearly contributes to the destruction of the international security system, including the Euro-Atlantic subsystem of the global nuclear security.


At the same time, this process poses a danger to this subsystem even if F-35A Lightning II aircraft are equipped with non-nuclear weapons, but with armor-piercing projectiles with depleted uranium (DU) rods, which, if used, will inevitably lead to the formation of radioactive contamination centers of various densities in Europe. The source of this contamination, namely DU, persists for tens of thousands of years, is carried by air and water masses, absorbed by animals together with natural fodder, etc., so the long-term consequences of the use of armor-piercing shells with DU ‘arrows’ are difficult to predict. But the risks of destroying the Euro-Atlantic global nuclear subsystem are even more aggravated by the deployment of the latest American B61-12 bombs at the U.S. bases in Europe.

What are basic features of B61-12 nuclear bomb?

The B61-12 is to replace all versions of the currently in service strategic (B61-7 and B61-10) and non-strategic (B61-3 and B61-4) B61 series bombs, except for the B61-11 anti-bunker bombs. Its mass increased to about 375 kg, while its dimensions remained the same. The B61-12 does not have a braking parachute as the previous version, but it has an inertial navigation system and a steerable tail fin in its tail section instead of fixed stabilizers. This makes the bomb steerable (a first in the U.S. nuclear bomb arsenal) and highly accurate. Its circular error probable or CEP from the target in the new bomb has decreased to about 30 meters (the current modifications have this figure is 110-170 meters). That is, the accuracy of hitting the target B61-12 increases up to six times, which is equal to the impact effect of increasing the power of the nuclear yield more than 20 times.

The B61-12 bombs use a modernized nuclear charge of the B61-4 bombs with the same power range (four – from 0.3 to 50 kt). Tests conducted without the nuclear charge showed that the bomb goes completely into the ground when dropped. This makes it suitable for destroying well-protected underground targets. The steerable tail section also offers the B61-12 some ability to glide toward to the target, which the current modifications lack, capable only of falling on a ballistic trajectory. This will allow carrier aircraft to drop the B61-12 at a greater distance from the target, thus reducing the likelihood of hitting them by missile defense.

At Pantex Plant in Texas, existing B61-3/-4/-7 and -10 nuclear bombs are converted into the B61-12 variant. The non-nuclear components of these bombs are repaired or replaced. Plutonium parts for the B61-12 are taken only from the atomic charges of the B61-4 bombs, while the thermonuclear components are to be rebuilt. In other words, it is essentially a matter of extending the life cycle of one modification, the B61-4, using selected non-nuclear components from the other three modifications (B61-3/-7 and -10) and adding a guided tail. A total of 480 old bombs are reportedly being converted into the B61-12.

The new bombs will have a service life extension program of at least 20 years, meaning they will be in service until the mid-2040s.


The B61-12 bomb can be used from the B2 strategic bomber, F-15, F-16, PA-200 Tornado fighter-bombers, as well as F-35, new B-21 Raider, F/A-18F aircraft


Overall, experts note that the B61-12 bomber ensures the combat capability of the air component of the U.S. strategic nuclear triad, as well as a future for bombers and dual-capable aircraft supporting NATO operations.

According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko, the modernization of the B61 bomber transforms it from a deterrent weapon into a weapon that can actually be used on the battlefield, which is a lowering of the nuclear threshold. The U.S. military naturally objects to him. As U.S. Defense Department spokesman Patrick Ryder noted: "We don't want to discuss the details of our nuclear arsenal. We have been modernizing the B61s for several years to replace the old weapons with new B61-12s. This process has nothing to do with Ukraine."

According to foreign military experts, when nuclear-carrying aircraft are relocated and nuclear bombs are delivered (conditionally) to forward-based airfields in Poland, Slovakia and the Baltic States, the entire territory of Belarus and almost the entire European part of Russia are within their range, while the flight time to the targets near the western borders is reduced about 10 times (from 40-50 to 4-7 minutes) The accuracy of bombing, taking into account the power, allows the B61-12 bombs to hit almost any target, including protected ones.

The U.S. and NATO military leadership pays special attention to the implementation of the requirements of the program for the retraining of flight crews and engineering personnel of tactical aviation squadrons of non-nuclear-weapon states of the North Atlantic Alliance (hereinafter referred to as the Retraining Program or RetrPro in order to master the B61-12 aerial bomb and its use in nuclear operations in the European theater of operations.

The goal of the RetrPro

The goal of the RetrPro is to increase the combat potential and operational and strategic capabilities of the non-nuclear-weapon Air Forces of NATO member countries, and its objectives are: increasing the general level of theoretical and practical training of flight and engineering personnel, as well as flight leadership teams formed from the Armed Forces of Poland, Slovakia, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and other non-nuclear-weapon states of the bloc involved in nuclear missions; strengthening the skills of the personnel of the aviation units of the armed forces of the countries that do not possess TNWs to prepare and use B61-12 nuclear bombs independently and as part of a grouping of alliance troops (forces).

The relevant facts have been published in open sources, and one can confidently assert: NATO nuclear weapons have long been placed in Poland with a high degree of probability, which is carefully concealed.

In general, the U.S. deployment of the latest fighter-bombers and nuclear bombs in Europe suggests that the F-35A/B61-12 bundle already present near our borders will significantly increase the combat capabilities of the U.S. nuclear arsenal in the region. The much more accurate guided nuclear bombs, even if less powerful than the B61-3 bombs they will replace, will actually have a more devastating effect. In addition, the low-observable fifth-generation F-35A fighters will greatly increase the likelihood of delivering these precision weapons to their targets.


It is fair to say that B61-12 bombs would increase the threat of nuclear war


A more accurate bomb with a lower yield (and also adjustable over a fairly wide range) lowers the nuclear threshold – it is usable against a wider range of targets, and policymakers and militaries can more easily decide to use it (including in the first nuclear strike) without fear of massive, indiscriminate civilian deaths (collateral damage) from the explosion and subsequent fallout. Therefore, the deployment of a significant number of modernized B61-12 bombs in Europe qualitatively increases the risks of destroying the global nuclear security system, at least its Euro-Atlantic global nuclear security subsystem.

These risks are determined not only by all the above-mentioned circumstances, but also by the fact that Russia, convinced of the futility of its attempts to keep the situation in Europe from sliding into intensified "nuclearization," has taken decisive actions to strengthen its security in recent years.

NATO nuclear storage facilities’ improvement

Realizing this, the U.S. and other NATO countries that host U.S. nuclear weapons are taking enhanced measures to improve their physical security. In particular, they are actively restoring and modernizing their nuclear ammunition storage facilities, which were built during the Cold War and have been mothballed since the late 1990s and early 2000s. At that time, nuclear warheads were stored at storage sites divided into three echelons: storage sites of type "A", "F", "C", "B"; supply sites of type "S"; and storage sites of type "Z";

Storage, supply, and storage sites designed for peacetime storage of nuclear ammunition are stationary complexes of special underground and semi-underground storage facilities, technical buildings, workshops, laboratories, administrative buildings, and other structures.

The area of a nuclear ammunition depot can be up to 12 km2. The storage facilities are buried in the ground up to 5 m, 25-40 m long, 15-20 m wide, and 3-4 m high at the entrance. On the territory of the warehouse the storages are located at a distance of 30-60 m from each other. In front of each storage facility, an earthen protective rampart up to 15 m high is built at a small distance. To protect against lightning strikes, lightning rods are installed on the storages. The walls of the storages are reinforced concrete, up to one m thick. Their two entrances are closed by iron gates with electronic security locks.

The nuclear ammunition depot had a complex and carefully organized system of security and defense.

At 900 to 1,500 meters from the fence of the depot there were external security units located in prepared positions. The nuclear ammunition storage site had several restricted areas (restricted zone, restricted movement zone, and highly restricted zone) to which access was strictly limited. Patrols and fixed posts posted near the facilities and on guard towers were equipped with radios to maintain communication with the main checkpoint. Ground target detection radars and control systems, all kinds of signaling sensors, communication and warning equipment were used as technical means of early warning.

These storage sites seemed to have served their purpose, but according to U.S. defense budget documents, modernization has begun so that they can be used again to store U.S. nuclear weapons after decades of downtime. The Biden administration’s FY 2023 defense budget request included data on infrastructure investments in nuclear weapons storage sites in Belgium, the UK, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. Hundreds of millions of dollars are requested for this, although even now in Europe, B61 bombs are stored in fairly secure underground vaults of the WS3 system (Weapons Storage and Security System, consisting of a weapons storage facility, and electronic monitoring and control systems) under the floor of highly secure aircraft shelters. Each vault can accommodate up to four B61 nuclear bombs directly underneath the carrier aircraft.

However, the already mentioned FY 2023 budget request to the U.S. Congress states that they NATO is "completing a $384 million infrastructure investment program at depots in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Turkey to upgrade security measures, communications systems, and facilities."

The Federation of American Scientists believes that, for example, the UK facility being upgraded is the U.S. airbase at Lakenheath, a hundred kilometers northeast of London. This base had 33 underground vaults that held 110 B61 bombs. The U.S. military withdrew its B61 warheads of earlier design from Lakenheath more than 15 years ago, marking the end of more than half a century of maintaining a U.S. nuclear arsenal in the UK. Since their withdrawal, the storage facilities have been mothballed. At the time of their withdrawal, these gravity bombs were considered militarily obsolete, and the international community had high hopes for further disarmament of the nuclear powers.

However, as already mentioned, as part of the Pentagon's new military preparations, the B61 has been given a new lease on life and requires reliable storage facilities.


Russian and foreign experts believe that the modernization of nuclear warhead storage facilities is a sign that the United States and NATO are preparing for a prolonged and possibly intensified confrontation with Russia


The NATO military has a false sense that the modernized storage facilities will make nuclear warheads invulnerable to Russia, because if they were built to withstand a Soviet nuclear strike with warheads of a few megatons of TNT, they will be able to withstand a modern Russian nuclear attack with warheads of hundreds of kilotons very effectively. However, these are profoundly erroneous notions. As the President of Russia Vladimir Putin noted in his address of February 24, 2022, modern Russia, even after the collapse of the USSR and the loss of a significant part of its potential, today is one of the most powerful nuclear powers in the world and, moreover, has certain advantages in a number of the latest types of weapons. In this regard, no one should have any doubts that a direct attack on Russia would lead to defeat and terrible consequences for any potential aggressor. That is, the placement of nuclear weapons in modernized storage facilities will only provoke Moscow to use the most powerful and advanced weapons against them, which will cause unpredictable consequences.

Thus, the modernization of nuclear weapons storage facilities in the European region will not secure these weapons, but, on the contrary, will cause a prompt and strong reaction from Russia.


Thus, the destructive policy of the United States, NATO and some of their satellites in the field of European security leads to the formation of new threats, inevitably leads to the erosion of strategic stability and increases the likelihood of combat or terrorist use of nuclear weapons, primarily against Russia


All this unambiguously leads to the disruption or even destruction of the Euro-Atlantic subsystem of global nuclear security. However, as a comprehensive analysis shows, this policy is characteristic of the United States not only in Europe, but also in other regions of the world. At the same time, the most dangerous and acute situation with global nuclear security threats and risks is in the Asia-Pacific region, since it is there that another node of tension has formed – between the United States, the PRC, North and South Korea, and others. This also directly affects the state of the Asia-Pacific subsystem of global nuclear security, the risks of destruction of which were presented.

Final brush

“As long as nuclear weapons exist, NATO will remain a nuclear alliance”. It has been once again stated in the Vilnius NATO Summit Communiqué in July 2023 (item 43) “As long as nuclear weapons exist…“? Can someone find any NATO commitments to downsize U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in Europe? No, not yet since mid-50s when the U.S.TNW have been brought to the European continent. However, the reality is that NATO's nuclear burden-sharing arrangements and continues U.S. deployment of NW in Europe have always been in full violation of the NPT and the basic principles of the European security.

The same mood is incorporated in item 44 of the Vilnius Communique: “NATO’s nuclear deterrence posture also relies on the United States’ nuclear weapons forward-deployed in Europe. National contributions, by Allies concerned, of dual-capable aircraft, as well as the provision of conventional forces and military capabilities in support of NATO’s nuclear deterrence mission, remain central to this effort”.

In item 45 NATO confirmed that it will take all necessary steps to ensure the credibility, effectiveness, safety and security of the nuclear deterrent mission. This includes continuing to modernize NATO’s nuclear capability and updating planning to increase flexibility and adaptability of the alliance’s nuclear forces. The alliance reaffirmed the imperative to ensure the broadest possible participation by allies concerned in NATO’s nuclear burden-sharing arrangements to demonstrate Alliance unity and resolve.


To cut a long story short: the USA and NATO as a military block have firm intention to convert Europe and Ukraine into a nuclear powder keg.

Ukrainian factor created by Washington and its allies is additional pretext in reaching such dangerous Armageddonish-type goal.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 208. Open letter to Frau Alice Schwarzer and Frau Sahra Wagenknecht / Antikriegsbewegungen in Europa und die USA. Offener Brief an Frau Alice Schwarzer und Frau Sahra Wagenknecht

Editor's note: you can read German version of the article down the page

 

February 27, 2023

1. Anti-war movements engulfed Europe and the USA. My open letter to Fray Alice Schwarzer and Frau Sahra Wagenknecht

On February 25, 2023 anti-war movements across Europe and the USA arranged many rallies against US/NATO arms deliveries to Ukraine that killed a lot of civilians and  destroyed thousands of houses, hospitals, schools and infrastructure facilities in the areas it wishes finally to give up.

As is known, Alice Schwarzer and Sahra Wagenknecht have drafted “Peace Manifesto” where they have called on the German Chancellor to stop the escalation in arms deliveries to Ukraine, urged to a ceasefire and peaceful settlement. Correctly and bravely.

However, two ladies made a number of inaccuracies in the appeal.

First, they said: “Women were raped, children frightened, an entire people traumatized” without making difference by whom and when. They put on the same table Ukrainian neo-Nazi who unleashed a brutal direct and collective armed aggression together with NATO countries – initially against Donbass in 2014 and later against Russia in 2022.  These two ladies have put Russia on the same table, though Russia only had to resist to such aggression carefully and deliberately incited and engineered by NATO. No one have so far presented any proved facts that Russians have allegedly been spotted to committing such inhuman acts. A Ukrainian ombudswoman was sacked for disseminating such lies about Russians.

Second, two ladies noted: “The Ukrainian population was brutally attacked by Russia and needs our solidarity.”


The reality is that Ukrainian and Russian population in Donbass was brutally attacked by Ukrainian neo-Nazi on April 13, 2014, because the Kiev regime headed by irrelevant persons in Ukraine wanted to deprive them from speaking Russian, educating their kids in Russian, professing Orthodox Christianity, and maintaining their cultural and ethnic traditions freely, without Ukrainian intimidation.


Your “solidarity”, Alice Schwarzer and Sahra Wagenknecht, should be addressed to the victims of combined Ukrainian/NATO aggression. It will be really honest appeal and a just action.


There must not be any solidarity with neo-Nazi and warmongers demonstrated within the anti-war and anti-nuclear movements. Such “solidarity” will compromise and even destroy any public movement


In her address Sahra Wagenknecht reminded the rally in Berlin that German tanks with specific crosses will again kill Russians like during the WWII.

However, she has forgotten to mention that for more than 80 years after the WWII the current citizens of Russia still remember the Nazi aggression against the Soviet Union. She failed to mention that Russians will remember for many decades to come that German tanks and other military hardware will kill many Russians once again.

Alice Schwarzer and Sahra Wagenknecht do not know that during its long recorded history Russia always won and ruined any aggressor and even military unions of aggressors who dared to attack the Russian Empire, the USSR and Russia.


FOOD FOR THOUGHT:

Direct and combined Ukrainian/NATO unprovoked aggression that initially began against Donbass in 2014, and later against Russia in 2022 have resulted in the huge wave of multinational patriotism amongst all 189 nations and all 5 key global religious confessions in the Russian Federation


Including in patriotic songs, e.g. two of them created by a young musician with a nickname “Shaman” (Yaroslav Dronov) born on November 22, 1991 in Russia. His songs have subtitles in English. Dozens of millions viewers in Russia listened to them:

(1) “I am Russian”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAPwIEWzqJE

(2) “Confession”:    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLh9WlHp13U

Can you feel in these songs, Alice Schwarzer and Sahra Wagenknecht, that Russia will prevent again any NATO aggression and against neo-Nazi? It is our fate to terminate Nazism.

If you are not able to understand this notion, please listen to these songs once again.

And look through exact figures as to how many civilians have been killed during such aggression specified in item 2, below.

2. DPR reports 4,449 civilians killed since escalation began

Some 4,449 civilians, including 132 children, were killed by Ukrainian/NATO bombardments of populated localities in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) since AFU began massive attack against Donbass on February 17, 2022, the DPR’s mission to the Joint Center for Control and Coordination of issues related to Ukrainian war crimes (JCCC) reported on February 27.

It also noted that 4,147 people, including 266 children, were wounded, with 93 civilian casualties, including 8 children, from blasts by antipersonnel mines, known as PFM-1 dispersed by AFU, and banned by the Ottawa Convention.

In the 375 days of the escalation, 15,888 shooting attacks were recorded, of which 15,556 were discharged from heavy weapons.


The enemy fired 101,665 rounds of ammunition, including 39 Tochka-U missiles, 239 HIMARS, 18 BM-30 Smerch and 258 BM-27 Uragan rockets, as well as 13,103 projectiles from 122-mm multiple rocket launchers, and 22,839 155-mm NATO shells.


The situation at the Donbass engagement line flared up on February 17, 2022 when AFU started massive drive and bombardment of that region that never attacked Ukraine first and has not crossed the administrative border separating Donbass and Ukraine.

On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a televised address that in response to a request by the heads of the Donbass republics he had made a decision to carry out a special military operation in order to protect people "who have been suffering from abuse and genocide by the Kiev regime for eight years."

During the same period of time 92 civilians, including 21 children, have been killed by using Ukrainian/NATO heavy weapons in LPR. Around 4,000 houses and  450 social infrastructure buildings have been destroyed in that republic.

3. DPR head: Zelensky’s intention to capture Crimea is publicity stunt

Vladimir Zelensky said at a news conference on February 24 that Kiev is preparing to take back Crimea. Denis Pushilin, the interim head of the Donetsk People’s Republic, said Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s statement that Kiev was preparing military efforts to capture Crimea is nothing but a publicity stunt.

"It’s more like a PR stunt. It’s more like an effort to <...> raise the morale of Ukraine’s armed formations. Maybe, [the statement is meant] for the radical portion of society. It’s unlikely to result in any real actions," he said on Rossiya-24 television. In Pushilin’s view, Kiev wouldn’t have the potential to pull off anything like that. "That they are trying to identify some goals, paths is nothing but a publicity stunt. That’s how I see it."

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on February that the return of Crimea to Ukraine was impossible as the peninsula is an integral part of Russia.

After the February 2014 coup in Ukraine, the Crimean authorities held a referendum on reuniting with Russia. Most voters supported the idea (96.7% in Crimea and 95.6% in the city of Sevastopol), with turnout reaching 80%. In March 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty on Crimea’s reunification with Russia on March 18, 2014, which was ratified by the Federal Assembly on March 21, 2014. Despite the convincing outcome of the referendum, Kiev refused to recognize Crimea as part of Russia.

4. US spending more on Ukraine than in Afghanistan

Washington’s military aid to Kiev exceeds its annual outlays to fight America’s longest-ever war, a Statista analysis has shown

President Joe Biden’s administration has shelled out more money on military aid to help Ukraine to fight Russia than the US spent annually to fight its own war in Afghanistan, according to data compiled by German research firm Statista.

US military aid to Ukraine through mid-January, 2023, spanning the first 11 months of the conflict, totaled $46.6 billion, Statista said in a report this week, citing data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. That compared with an average annual military spend of $43.4 billion, in 2022 dollars, during the first ten years of the Afghanistan war.

“When calculating the average annual costs of previous wars in which the United States has been involved in, the true magnitude of the country’s Ukraine aid expenditure can be seen,” Statista data journalist Martin Armstrong said. The Ukraine total doesn’t include an additional $5 billion worth of weapons and equipment that the Pentagon sent to Kiev, he said.

The figures also exclude non-military aid, such as the $4.5 billion that Biden pledged to fund pensions, government salary and other public spending. All told, Washington has allocated $113 billion in Ukraine aid, and multiple administration officials have vowed to keep supporting Kiev “as long as it takes.”

Some Washington lawmakers, such as Representatives Seth Moulton of Massachusetts, a Democrat, and Georgia Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene, have called the Ukraine crisis a “proxy war” that the US and NATO are waging against Russia. Remarkably, even without officially deploying any troops in Ukraine or declaring itself a direct party to the conflict, the US is spending more than it doled out to fund its own war – in fact, the longest war in the nation’s history.


Converted to US dollars (as of 2022), US military spending in Ukraine was far higher than in Vietnam, which averaged $90.9 billion annually from 1965 to 1975; Iraq, total $125.1 billion per year from 2003 to 2010; and Korea, where the annual cost was $138.2 billion from 1950 to 1953.


US Republican lawmakers, who won control of the Lower House in last November’s midterm elections, have called for tougher oversight of Washington's aid to Ukraine. Eleven Republicans introduced a bill earlier this month calling for an immediate halt to the aid program.

Warsaw began supplying munitions to Ukraine even before the start of a Special Military Operation on February 24, 2022, Polish National Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak told Metropolia Warszawska.

5. Less than half of Americans support Ukraine military aid

Nearly one year on from the launch of Russia’s military actions against unprovoked Ukraine aggression, many Americans oppose their government’s policy of providing massive military and economic assistance to Kiev, a new poll revealed on last week.

Less than half of US adults still agree with sending weapons to Ukraine, while only around one in four believes Washington should continue to play a “major role” in the conflict, the Associated Press-NORC poll showed.

The survey, conducted in late January 2023, found that 48% of Americans support continued military aid to Ukraine, down from 60% back in May, while 29% are opposed and 22% are unsure. Likewise, just 26% of poll respondents say the US should have a “major role” in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, down from 32% in May.


Most of that support comes from Democrats. Just 17% of Republicans want Washington to play a big part in the conflict, compared with 40% of Democrats.


Americans also are increasingly reluctant to support continued economic aid to Ukraine, with just 37% approving and 38% opposing, the AP-NORC poll showed.

6. Half of citizens in 9 EU nations want quick end to Ukrainian aggression

Roughly half of the people in nine EU nations favor a swift end to the armed conflict in Ukraine initiated by it, even if it means Kiev would have to relinquish its claims on some of its former territory, a new opinion poll has suggested.

The results of the survey, which was conducted in Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal and Spain, were reported on February 21 by Euroskopia – an alliance of polling agencies.

Some 48% of all respondents said they favored a quick resolution to the conflict, even if it meant Ukraine had to lose lands to achieve that goal. Only 32% opposed the idea of Kiev making sacrifices for peace.

Ukrainian officials pledged to fight until their forces seized control of all the territory the country considers its own, and EU leaders have vowed to help for as long as it takes.

Almost all Hungarians oppose sanctions illegally imposed on Russia.

Skepticism was particularly pronounced in Austria and Germany, where 64% and 60% respectively of those surveyed, favored a shortcut to peace. Euroskopia noted that this perspective clashed with the official stance of the German government, which has been among the most generous supporters in the EU in terms of military aid to Kiev.

Respondents in the Netherlands (27%) and Poland (28%) were the least supportive of making compromises to achieve peace, the poll indicated.

A majority (56%) of people in the nine EU nations want to continue shipping arms to Ukraine, but there was a dissenting minority. In Greece and Italy, 60% and 50% of survey participants opposed the military assistance, while 38% in each country said they approved of it.

7. Putin reveals Moscow’s main issue with US and NATO

The Russian president said his country is opposed to the emergence of a unipolar world that revolves around Washington’s interests

Moscow is striving to create a multipolar world rather than one that is centered around the US, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said. In an interview with Rossiya-1 TV channel on February 26, he argued that Washington was trying to mold the world exclusively to fit its own agenda.

Putin suggested that America’s “satellite states” are also well aware of these “egoistic” intentions. However, for the time being, they have chosen to turn a blind eye to this due to “various reasons connected first and foremost with huge dependence in the economic sphere and defense,” the Russian leader said. Some of Washington’s allies also see confrontation with Russia as a unifying cause, eclipsing any differences between them and the US, he added.


Putin also claimed that Western elites will only be satisfied and prepared to “admit us into the so-called family of civilized nations” if Russia disintegrates into several independent states. In such a scenario, he said, the West would “place [the resulting countries] under its control.” He added that the disintegration of Russia in such circumstances would call into question the existence of the Russian people in its current form.


According to the Russian president, he opted for this course of action in light of a more aggressive NATO, which “has announced as its prime goal” Russia’s strategic defeat.

Putin also cited the US government’s efforts to attract European businesses to American soil, as well as a submarine deal last summer, which saw Canberra abruptly exit a contract with a French manufacturer in favor of a US competitor. That incident was humiliating for Paris, the president said.

Putin emphasized that Moscow “cannot and will not behave like this. ”In the end, such a stance – the fight for a multipolar world, for respect for each and everyone in the international arena, for taking into account everyone’s interests – I don’t have the slightest doubt, will prevail.”

Moscow will create completely different world relied on entirely different principles, based upon justice and equality, free from nuclear weapons, wars and conflicts.

Russia will rely upon the rational majority of nations in the world.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

***

27. Februar 2023

1. Antikriegsbewegungen in Europa und die USA. Offener Brief an Frau Alice Schwarzer und Frau Sahra Wagenknecht

Am 25. Februar 2023 organisierten Antikriegsbewegungen in ganz Europa und den USA viele Kundgebungen gegen US/NATO-Waffenlieferungen an die Ukraine, die vielen Zivilisten töteten und Tausende von Häusern, Krankenhäusern, Schulen und Infrastruktureinrichtungen in den zerstörten Gebieten, die sie letztendlich aufgeben wollen.

Alice Schwarzer und Sahra Wagenknecht haben bekanntlich ein „ Friedensmanifest“ verfasst, in dem sie den deutschen Bundeskanzler auffordern, die Eskalation der Waffenlieferungen an die Ukraine zu stoppen, zu Waffenstillstand und auf eine friedliche Lösung zu drängen. Richtig und mutig.

Die zwei Damen verbreiten jedoch eine Reihe von Ungenauigkeiten in ihrem Manifest.

Zuerst erklären sie: „Frauen wurden vergewaltigt, Kinder verängstigt, ein ganzes Volk traumatisiert“, ohne einen Unterschied zu machen, von wem und wann . Sie haben schreiben über ukrainische Neonazis, die zusammen mit NATO-Staaten eine brutale direkte und kollektive bewaffnete Aggression entfesselt haben – zunächst gegen Donbass im Jahr 2014 und später gegen Russland im Jahr 2022. Diese beiden Damen schreiben in der gleichen Weise über Russland, auch wenn Russland einer solchen vorsätzlichen Aggression nur widerstehen musste, die von der NATO angestiftet und inszeniert wurde. Niemand hat bisher bewiesene Tatsachen vorgelegt, dass Russen angeblich bei der Begehung dieser unmenschlichen Taten gesehen wurden. Eine ukrainische Ombudsfrau wurde sogar entlassen, weil sie solche Lügen über Russen verbreitet hatte.

Zweites stellen die zwei Damen fest: „Die ukrainische Bevölkerung wurde von Russland brutal angegriffen und braucht unsere Solidarität. 


Die Realität ist jedoch, dass die ukrainische und russische Bevölkerung im Donbass am 13. April 2014 von ukrainischen Neonazis brutal angegriffen wurde, weil das Kiewer Regime, angeführt von irrelevanten Personen in der Ukraine, ihnen die Verwendung der russischen Sprache verweigern wollte, das Recht ihre Kinder auf Russisch erziehe, sich zum orthodoxen Christentum zu bekennen und sich zu ihrer kulturellen und ethnischen Traditionen zu bekennen. ohne ukrainische Einschüchterung.


Ihre „Solidarität“, Alice Schwarzer und Sarah Wagenknecht, sollte an die Opfer der kombinierten ukrainisch/NATO-Aggression gerichtet sein. Dann würde es ein wirklich ehrlicher Appell und eine gerechte Handlung sein.


Innerhalb rechter und linker Antikriegs- und Antiatombewegungen darf keinerlei Solidarität mit Neonazis und Kriegshetzern demonstriert werden. Eine solche „Solidarität“ würde jede öffentliche Bewegung zerstören.


In ihrer Ansprache erinnerte Sarah Wagenknecht die Teilnehmer der Kundgebung in Berlin daran, dass deutsche Panzer mit bestimmten Kreuzen wieder gegen Russen kämpfen werden wie im Zweiten Weltkrieg.

Tatsächlich hat Sahra Wagenknecht jedoch vergessen zu erwähnen, dass sich die heutigen Bürger Russlands mehr als 80 Jahre nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg immer noch an die Nazi-Aggression gegen die Sowjetunion erinnern. Sie versäumte es auch zu erwähnen, dass sich die Russen noch viele Jahrzehnte lang daran erinnern werden, dass deutsche Panzer und andere Kampfgeräte wieder viele Russen töten werden.

Alice Schwarzer und Sahra Wagenknecht wissen nicht, dass Russland während seiner langen und dokumentierten Geschichte immer gegen jeden Angreifer und sogar Verbände von Angreifern gewonnen und sie vernichtend geschlagen hat, die es gewagt haben, das Russische Reich, die UdSSR und Russland anzugreifen.


Anregungen zum Nachdenken:

Die direkte und kombinierte unprovozierte Aggression der Ukraine und der NATO, die ursprünglich 2014 gegen Donbass und später 2022 gegen Russland begann, haben zu einer Welle von multinationalen Patriotismus in der Russischen Föderation geführt und zwar unter allen 189 Nationen und allen 5 wichtigsten global-religiösen Bekenntnissen.


Darunter auch in patriotischen Liedern, z.B. in zwei von einem jungen Musiker mit Spitznamen „Schamane“ (Yaroslav Dronov ), geboren am 22. November 1991 in Russland. Seine Lieder haben englische Untertitel und es gibt Dutzende Millionen von Fans in Russland:

(1) „Ich bin Russe“: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAPwIEWzqJE

(2) „Bekenntnis“: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLh9WlHp13U

Spüren Sie in diesen Liedern, Alice Schwarzer und Sarah Wagenknecht, dass Russland wieder jede NATO-Aggression und gegen Neonazi verhindern wird?

Und wenn Sie diesen Gedanken nicht verstehen können, hören Sie sich diese Lieder bitte noch einmal an.

Und sehen Sie sich sich bitte die genauen Zahlen an, wie viele Zivilisten während dieser Aggression getötet wurden, in Punkt 2 wie unten angegeben.

2. Die Volksrepublik Donezk (DVR) berichtet, dass seit Beginn der Eskalation 4.449 Zivilisten getötet wurden.

Etwa 4.449 Zivilisten, darunter 132 Kinder, wurden durch ukrainisch/NATO-Bombardierungen besiedelter Ortschaften in der Volksrepublik Donezk (DVR) getötet, seit das ukrainische Militär am 17. Februar 2022 mit dem massiven Angriff auf Donbass begann, wie die Mission der DVR beim Gemeinsamen Kontroll- und Koordinierungszentrum über Probleme im Zusammenhang mit ukrainischen Kriegsverbrechen (JCCC) am 27. Februar berichtete.

Es stellte darüberhinaus auch fest, dass 4.147 Menschen, darunter 266 Kinder, verwundet wurden, mit 93 zivilen Opfern, darunter 8 Kinder, die durch Explosionen von Antipersonenminen, bekannt als PFM-1, die von dem ukrainischen Militär eingesetzt werden und das obwohl die Ottawa-Konvention ihren Einsatz ausdrücklich verbietet.

In den 375 Tagen der Eskalation wurden 15.888 Schießereien registriert, davon 15.556 mit schweren Waffen.


Der Feind feuerte 101.665 Schuss Munition ab, darunter 39 Tochka-U-Raketen, 239 HIMARS-, 18 BM-30-Smerch- und 258 BM-27-Uragan-Raketen sowie 13.103 Projektile aus 122-mm-Mehrfachraketenwerfern und weitere 22.839 155-mm -NATO-Atilleriegeschosse.


Die Situation an der Donbass-Einsatzlinie flammte am 17. Februar 2022 auf, als das ukrainische Militär mit massiven Vorstößen und Bombardierungen dieser Region begann, die von sich aus Ukraine niemals zuerst angegriffen hat und auch die Verwaltungsgrenze zwischen Donbass und der Ukraine nicht überschritten hat.

Am 24. Februar 2022 sagte der russische Präsident Wladimir Putin in einer Fernsehansprache, dass er als Antwort auf eine Anfrage der Staatsoberhäupter der Donbass-Republiken die Entscheidung getroffen habe, eine spezielle Militäroperation durchzuführen, um diejenigen Menschen zu schützen, „die acht Jahre lang gelitten haben, durch den Missbrauch und durch den Völkermord seitens des Kiewer Regimes“.

Im selben Zeitraum wurden 92 Zivilisten, darunter 21 Kinder, durch den Einsatz schwerer ukrainischer/NATO-Waffen in der Volksrepublik Lugansk (LPR) getötetIn dieser Republik wurden rund 4.000 Häuser und 450 Gebäude der sozialen Infrastruktur zerstört.

3. Der Chef der Volksrepublik Donezk (DVR): Zelenskys Absicht, die Krim zu erobern, ist ein Werbegag

Wladimir Selenskyj erklärte auf einer Pressekonferenz am 24. Februar, Kiew bereite sich darauf vor, die Krim zurückzuerobern. Denis Pushilin , der Interimschef der Volksrepublik Donezk, sagte, die Erklärung des ukrainischen Präsidenten Wladimir Selenskyj, dass Kiew Maßnahmen zur Eroberung der Krim vorbereite, sei nichts als ein Werbegag.

„Es ist eher ein PR-Gag. Es ist eher ein Versuch, <…> die Moral der bewaffneten Formationen der Ukraine zu bestärken. Vielleicht ist [die Aussage] für den radikalen Teil der Gesellschaft gemeint. Es ist unwahrscheinlich, dass es zu echten Aktionen führt“, sagte er im Fernsehsender „Rossija-24“. Kiew hätte nach Ansicht von Puschilin nicht das Potenzial, so etwas durchziehen. „Dass sie versuchen, beliebige Ziele, udn Wege dahin zu identifizieren, ist nichts anderes als ein Werbegag. So sehe ich das.“

Kremlsprecher Dmitri Peskow sagte im Februar, die Rückgabe der Krim an die Ukraine sei unmöglich, da die Halbinsel ein integraler Bestandteil Russlands sei.

Nach dem Putsch im Februar 2014 in der Ukraine hielten die Behörden der Krim ein Referendum über die Wiedervereinigung mit Russland ab. Die meisten Wähler unterstützten die Idee (96,7 % auf der Krim und 95,6 % in der Stadt Sewastopol), wobei die Wahlbeteiligung 80 % erreichte. Im März 2014 unterzeichnete der russische Präsident Wladimir Putin und zwar am 18. März 2014 einen Vertrag über die Wiedervereinigung der Krim mit Russland, der am 21. März 2014 von der Bundesversammlung ratifiziert wurde. Trotz des überzeugenden Ergebnisses des Referendums weigerte sich Kiew, die Krim als Teil von Russland anzuerkennen.

4. Die USA geben mehr für die Ukraine aus als für Afghanistan

Laut einer Analyse von Statista über Washingtons Militärhilfe für Kiew sind die höchsten jährlichen Ausgaben für den längsten US-Krieg aller Zeiten, noch wesentlich mehr als für den Krieg in Afghanistan.

Laut Daten des deutschen Forschungsunternehmens Statista hat die Regierung von US-Präsident Joe Biden mehr Geld für Militärhilfe ausgegeben, um der Ukraine im Kampf gegen Russland zu helfen, als die USA jährlich für ihren eigenen Krieg in Afghanistan ausgegeben haben.

Die US-Militärhilfe für die Ukraine bis Mitte Januar 2023, die sich über die ersten 11 Monate des Konflikts erstreckte, beläuft sich auf insgesamt 46,6 Milliarden US-Dollar , sagte Statista in einem aktuellen Bericht unter Berufung auf Daten des Kieler Instituts für Weltwirtschaft. Dies im Vergleich zu durchschnittlichen jährlichen Militärausgaben von 43,4 Milliarden US-Dollar (in 2022 US-Dollar) während der ersten zehn Jahre des Afghanistan-Krieges.

„Wenn man die durchschnittlichen voraussichtlichen Kosten früherer Kriege berechnet, an denen die Vereinigten Staaten beteiligt waren, zeigt sich das wahre Ausmaß der Hilfsausgaben des Landes für die Ukraine“, sagte Statista-Datenjournalist Martin Armstrong. Die Summe für die Ukraine beinhaltet keine zusätzlichen Waffen und Ausrüstung im Wert von 5 Milliarden Dollar, die das Pentagon nach Kiew geschickt hat, sagte er.

Die Zahlen schließen auch nicht eingesetzte Hilfe ein, wie die 4,5 Milliarden US-Dollar, die US-Präsident Biden zur Finanzierung von Renten, Regierungsgehältern und anderen öffentlichen Ausgaben zugesagt hat. Alles in allem hat Washington 113 Milliarden US-Dollar an Hilfe für die Ukraine bereitgestellt, und mehrere Regierungsbeamte haben geschworen, Kiew „so lange wie nötig“ zu unterstützen.

Einige US-Gesetzgeber, wie der Abgeordnete Seth Moulton aus Massachusetts, ein Demokrat, und die Republikanerin Marjorie Taylor Greene aus Georgia, haben die Ukraine-Krise einen „Stellvertreterkrieg“ genannt, den die USA und die NATO gegen Russland führen. Bemerkenswerterweise geben die USA, selbst ohne offizielle Truppen in der Ukraine zu stationieren oder sich als direkte Konfliktpartei zu erklären, mehr aus, als sie ausgegeben haben, um ihren eigenen Krieg in Afghanistan zu finanzieren – tatsächlich den längsten Krieg in der Geschichte der Nation.


Umgerechnet in US-Dollar (mit Stand 2022) waren die US-Militärausgaben in der Ukraine weitaus höher als in Vietnam, wo sie im Jahresdurchschnitt zwischen 1965 bis 1975 durchschnittlich 90,9 Milliarden Dollar betrugen; Irak, insgesamt 125,1 Milliarden US-Dollar pro Jahr von 2003 bis 2010; und Korea, wo die jährlichen Kosten zwischen 1950 bis 1953 138,2 Milliarden Dollar betrugen.


Die Abgeordneten der US-Republikaner, die bei den Zwischenwahlen im vergangenen November die Kontrolle über das Unterhaus gewonnen hatten, haben eine strengere Überwachung der Ukraine-Hilfen Washingtons gefordert. Elf Republikaner brachten Anfang dieses Monats einen Gesetzentwurf ein, der eine sofortige Einstellung des Hilfsprogramms forderte.

Warschau habe bereits vor dem Beginn einer durchgeführten Spezialoperation am 24. Februar 2022 mit der Lieferung von Munition an die Ukraine begonnen, sagte der polnische Verteidigungsminister Mariusz Blaszczak gegenüber Metropolia Warszawska.

5. Weniger als die Hälfte der US-Amerikaner unterstützen die Militärhilfe für die Ukraine

Fast ein Jahr nach Beginn der russischen Militäraktionen gegen die unprovozierte ukrainische Aggression lehnen viele US-Amerikaner die Politik ihrer Regierung ab. Sie kritisieren die Politik der USA Kiew massiv zu unterstützen und wirtschaftliche Hilfe zu leisten. Dies ergab eine neue Umfrage von letzter Woche..

Weniger als die Hälfte der US-Amerikaner im Alter über 18 Jahre sind immer noch damit einverstanden, Waffen in die Ukraine zu schicken, während etwa nur jeder Vierte glaubt, dass Washington weiterhin eine „wichtige Rolle“ in dem Konflikt spielen sollte, Dies ergab eine aktuelle Umfrage von Associated Press-NORC.

Die Ende Januar 2023 durchgeführte Umfrage ergab, dass 48 % der US-Amerikaner eine Fortsetzung der Militärhilfe für die Ukraine unterstützen, gegenüber 60 % im Mai, während 29 % der US-Amerikaner dagegen sind und 22 % unsicher sind. Ebenso sagen nur 26 % der Umfrageteilnehmer, dass die USA eine „wichtige Rolle“ im Russland-Ukraine-Konflikt spielen sollten, gegenüber 32 % der Befragten im Mai 2022.


Die meiste Unterstützung kommt von den Demokraten. Nur 17 % der Republikaner wollen, dass Washington eine große Rolle in dem Konflikt spielt, im Vergleich zu 40 % der Demokraten.


Die US-Amerikaner zögern auch zunehmend, weitere Wirtschaftshilfe für die Ukraine zu unterstützen, mit nur 37 % Zustimmung und 38 % Ablehnung, wie die AP-NORC-Umfrage zeigte.

6. Die Hälfte der Bürger in 9 EU-Staaten wünscht ein schnelles Ende der ukrainischen Aggression

Rund die Hälfte der Menschen in neun EU-Staaten befürworten ein schnelles Ende des bewaffneten Konflikts in der Ukraine, auch wenn Kiew dafür seine Ansprüche auf Teile seines ehemaligen Territoriums aufgeben müsste, so eine neue Meinungsumfrage.

Die Ergebnisse der Umfrage, die in Österreich, Frankreich, Deutschland, Griechenland, Italien, den Niederlanden, Polen, Portugal und Spanien durchgeführt wurden, wurden am 21. Februar von Euroskopia – einem Zusammenschluss von Meinungsforschungsinstituten verlautbart.

Etwa 48 % aller Befragten geben demnach an, dass sie eine schnelle Lösung des Konflikts befürworten, selbst wenn dies bedeuteten würde, dass die Ukraine Teile ij´hres Territoriums verlieren würde, um dieses Ziel zu erreichen. Nur 32 % sprachen sich gegen die Idee aus, dass Kiew Opfer für den Frieden bringen sollte.

Ukrainische Beamte versprachen, zu kämpfen, bis ihre Streitkräfte die Kontrolle über das gesamte Territorium erlangten, das das Land als sein eigenes betrachtet, und EU-Spitzenpolitiker haben geschworen, so lange wie nötig Hilfe zu leisten

Fast alle Ungarn lehnen die illegal gegen Russland verhängten Sanktionen ab.

Besonders ausgeprägt war die Skepsis in Österreich und Deutschland, wo 64 % bzw. 60 % der Befragten ausdrücklich einen schnellen Weg zum Frieden befürworteten. Euroskopia stellt fest, dass diese Perspektive mit der offiziellen Haltung der deutschen Regierung kollidiert, die in Bezug auf die Militärhilfe für Kiew zu den großzügigsten Unterstützern in der EU gehört.

Die Umfrage ergab, dass die Mehrheit in den Niederlanden (27 %) und Polen (28 %) am wenigsten dafür waren, Kompromisse einzugehen, um Frieden zu erreichen.

Eine Mehrheit (56%) der Menschen in den neun EU-Staaten will weiterhin Waffen in die Ukraine liefern, aber es gab eine abweichende Minderheit. In Griechenland und Italien sprachen sich 60 % bzw. 50 % der Umfrageteilnehmer gegen die Militärhilfe aus, während 38 % in jedem Land sagten, sie befürworteten Militärhilfe.

7. Putin erklärt Moskaus Hauptproblem mit den USA und der NATO

Der russische Präsident sagte, sein Land sei gegen die Entstehung einer unipolaren Welt , die sich um die Interessen Washingtons dreht

Moskau strebe danach, eine multipolare Welt zu schaffen, statt einer, die sich um die USA dreht, sagte der russische Präsident Wladimir Putin. In einem Interview mit dem Fernsehsender Rossiya-1 vom 26. Februar argumentierte er, dass Washington versuche, die Welt ausschließlich nach seiner eigenen Agenda zu formen.

Der russische Präsiden Wladimir Putin deutete an, dass sich auch die „Satellitenstaaten“ der USA dieser „egoistischen“ Absichten bewusst seien. Vorläufig haben sie jedoch beschlossen, die Augen davor zu verschließen, und zwar aus „verschiedenen Gründen, die in erster Linie mit der enormen Abhängigkeit im Wirtschafts- und Verteidigungsbereich verbunden sei“, so der russische Präsident. Einige von Washingtons Verbündeten sehen die Konfrontation mit Russland auch als einen Grund, der alle Differenzen zwischen ihnen und den USA in den Schatten stellt, fügte der russische Präsident hinzu.


Putin behauptete auch, dass die westlichen Eliten nur dann zufrieden und bereit seien, „uns in die sogenannte Familie der zivilisierten Nationen aufzunehmen“, wenn Russland in mehrere unabhängige Staaten zerfällt. In einem solchen Szenario, sagte er, würde der Westen „[die daraus resultierenden Länder] unter seine Kontrolle stellen“. Er fügt hinzu, dass der Zerfall Russlands unter solchen Umständen die Existenz des russischen Volkes in seiner jetzigen Form in Frage stellen würde.


Nach Angaben des russischen Präsidenten habe er sich für seine konkrete Vorgehensweise entschieden, wegen der Politik einer äussert aggressiven NATO, die „als umfangreiches Ziel“ die strategischen Niederlage Russlands angekündigt hat.

Putin verwies auch auf die BeAnstregungen der US-Regierung, europäische Unternehmen in die USA zu locken, sowie auf einen U-Boot-Deal im abgelaufenen Sommer, bei dem Australien abrupt aus einem Vertrag mit einem französischen Hersteller zugunsten eines US-Konkurrenten ausgestiegen sei. Dieser Vorfall sei für Paris äußerst demütigend gewesen, sagte der russische Präsident.

Putin betonte, Moskau „kann und wird sich nicht so verhalten. „Am Ende wird sich eine solche Haltung – der Kampf für eine multipolare Welt, für Respekt für jeden und jeden auf der internationalen Bühne, für die Berücksichtigung der Interessen aller durchsetzen– da habe ich nicht den geringsten Zweifel,“

Moskau wird eine völlig andere Welt schaffen, die sich auf völlig andere Prinzipien stützt, basierend auf Gerechtigkeit und Gleichheit, frei von Atomwaffen, Kriegen und Konflikten.

Russland wird sich dabei auf die rationale Begründung der Mehrheit der Nationen der Welt verlassen.

Geschrieben von Wladimir P. Kosin
 

 

Report # 307. Putin will be running for re-election

December 8, 2023

1.  President Putin will take part in 2024 presidential election

Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that he will seek re-election in 2024. Russia’s presidential election will be held between March 15 and March 17, 2024. The winner will be inaugurated in early May. If Putin wins, it will be his fifth term as the head of state. 

Any candidate for a president in Russia is elected by open and direct voting.

The Russian leader made such remarks at a ceremony held on December 8, 2023 where he awarded Hero of Russia medals to servicemen who had taken part in the Special Military Operation. Hero of the Donetsk People’s Republic Artyom Zhoga asked if Putin would run in 2024 and he replied in the affirmative.

According to a poll that the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM) released on December 7, 2023 about 70% of Russian citizens believe that Putin should run for another term in office, with another 15% saying that the incumbent should leave his current post but take a senior government position. Eight percent believe that the Russian leader should leave the political stage altogether.

2. Russia has made critical remarks on military aid to Kiev

Russia is categorically opposed to arms deliveries to Kiev that first launched unprovoked armed aggression against civilians in Donbas in 2014 and later against Russia, which was forced to fight back militarily only eight years later – on February 24, 2022.


Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov noted that any cargoes that contain weapons for Ukraine would be a legitimate target for Russian Armed Forces.


Russia's MFA said that NATO countries were "playing with fire" by supplying weapons to Ukraine. Lavrov claimed that the USA and NATO are directly involved in the armed aggression against Russia, "including not only by supplying weapons, but also by training personnel ... on the territory of the UK, Germany, Italy, and other countries."

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that the West's pumping of weapons into Ukraine does not contribute to the success of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations and will have a negative effect.

NATO and the EU deadly weapons are widely used against civilians in Donbass, Novorossiya and Russia proper.


Since February 17, 2022 till November 27, 2023 the collective West destroyed in the Donetsk People’s Republic only: 12,940 houses; 3,137 social infrastructure buildings, including, 638 educational centers and 185 hospitals; 1,940 various vehicles. 2,314 critically important facilities have been razed to the ground.


The city of Schebekino in Donbass where there are no military facilities at all has been shelled by AFU 870 times killing and injuring many civilians, including kids.

Russia has never deliberately practiced shelling civilian targets in Ukraine.

President Putin has never said that he would order to conquer the Western Europe and the USA.

There are no such provisions in the Russian Military strategy.

Have Joe Biden’s advisers explained him such facts?

3. The West is decreasing military aid to Ukraine


The West is tired of the war in Ukraine, and the amount of promised Western aid to Kiev has decreased by 87 percent year-on-year from August to October 2023 –   from 16 billion Euros to two billion Euros, RND reported on December 7, citing data released by the Institute for World Economics in Kiel (IfW).


As Pentagon Chief Lloyd Austin said in last November, the contact group on Ukraine has already allocated more than 80 billion dollars in aid to Kiev since the beginning of the conflict.

The IfW notes that the trend of decreasing aid to Ukraine began months before the reporting period, with the decline in support affecting all areas - humanitarian, financial and military, DW reports.

"We see the strongest decline in military aid," IfW expert Pietro Bomprezzi clarified.

He explained the current situation by the absence of new military aid packages from the United States, which has so far supplied Ukraine with more weapons than all other countries. Due to the internal political struggle in the USA, the allocation of new large aid packages to Kiev has been blocked. Of the 42 countries supporting Ukraine, only less than half have promised new aid packages to Kiev in recent months.

The shortage of shells is particularly severe on the front. Ukraine has resumed its own ammunition production, but it is unable to produce the necessary quantities on its own. "Five to eight thousand shells are consumed every day, a volume no other country is able to produce," Gustav Gressel, a military expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told RND.


Ukrainian soldiers report that Russia is using 20-30 times more shells every day on the hottest section of the front in Avdiivka (or Avdeevka in Russian).


Another military expert, Niklas Mazur, does not rule out that Russia will be able to seize the initiative in the next phase of the war in 2024. Both experts are skeptical of calls for a ceasefire. Zelensky has still not revoked his own presidential decree that prohibits all Ukrainian citizens from holding any official talks on a political settlement with Moscow, including himself.

According to IfW, European countries and European institutions have collectively promised Ukraine more aid than the U.S. since the beginning of the war, but these are mostly long-term guarantees of financial assistance. Germany, Norway, Denmark and the United Kingdom, among others, have provided such guarantees, but many other NATO members have not followed suit.

Is rationality prevailing over miscalculation?

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 60. "Biden's Bill" on lend-lease: the declaration of total war on Russia

May 11, 2022

 

On May 9, the U.S. President Joseph Biden signed a lend-lease bill designed to simplify and accelerate the supply of various types of weapons to ultra-nationalist regime Ukraine. Thus, the American legislators, who had previously approved the bill in two chambers of Congress, essentially revived a similar law adopted in the United States during World War II, which allowed weapons and military equipment to be lended or leased to its allies. Its full title is: “To provide enhanced authority for the President to enter into agreements with the Government of Ukraine to lend or lease defense articles to that Government to protect civilian populations in Ukraine from Russian military invasion, and for other purposes.” It may be cited as the “Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022”.

The current bill was introduced on January 19 this year by Republican Senator John Cornyn, that is, more than a month before the beginning of Russia's special military operation undertaken to protect Donbass, as well as the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, which began the third large-scale aggression against its citizens from February 14th, 2022. That is ten days before Russian troops responded.

The "Biden Bill" temporarily cancels some requirements related to the president's authority to lease or lease defense assets if they are intended for the government of Ukraine or the governments of other Eastern European countries "affected by Russia's invasion" of Ukraine.

As you can see, the new law simplifies and accelerates the supply of American weapons to Ukraine for a long time.

The U.S. President should establish accelerated procedures to ensure the timely transfer of defense assets provided to Ukraine for lease or leasing in accordance with the new law.

The document stipulates that in the FY 2022-2023, that is, until October 1, 2024, an agreement on lending or leasing of defense assets signed in accordance with this bill is not subject to certain provisions that usually apply to lend-lease agreements, including a provision that usually indicates that the provision of defense funds lended or leased to other states may not exceed five years in duration. In particular, the bill cancelled the obligations provided for by the American Foreign Aid Laws of 1961 and the Arms Export Control Act of 1976.

The President may authorize the United States Government to lend or lease defense articles to the Government of Ukraine or to governments of Eastern European countries impacted by the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine to help bolster those countries' defense capabilities and protect their civilian populations “from potential invasion or ongoing aggression by the armed forces of the Government of the Russian Federation”.

Any loan or lease of defense articles to the Government of Ukraine under the first paragraph shall be subject to all applicable laws concerning the return of and reimbursement and repayment for defense articles loan or leased to foreign governments.

The document does not specify anywhere the type of weapons transferred with the two named forms of their use by the Ukrainian side. Therefore, the militaristic Ukrainian regime can be supplied with any types of weapons and military equipment, which are designated in the text by the term in general as "defense articles".

The 2022 bill gives the U.S. head of state expanded powers to conclude agreements with the Government of Ukraine on lending or leasing defense assets to the Ukrainian government or the governments of Eastern European countries "affected by the invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine" to help strengthen the defense capabilities of these countries and protect their civilian populations "from potential invasion or ongoing aggression from the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation".

It is specifically stipulated that any lending or leasing of defense assets to the Government of Ukraine is subject to all applicable laws concerning the return, reimbursement and repayment of the cost of defense articles lended or leased to foreign governments.

This means that Ukrainian taxpayers will have to pay for many years the inflated cost of various types of weapons and military equipment transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In this regard, it may be recalled that the Russian Federation fully repaid its debt under the USSR-USA lend-lease agreement only in August 2006.

According to the new law, no later than 60 days after the date of its entry into force, the U.S. President shall establish expedited procedures for the delivery of any defense article loaned or leased to the Government of Ukraine under an agreement entered into under earlier subsection to ensure timely delivery of the article to that Government.

Thus, at the legislative level, the United States actually declared total combined war on Russia, becoming a large and diverse aggressor.

This war is being waged in all directions: military, political, trade and economic, and information and propaganda. If before Washington practiced only providing moral and small military and political support to the ultra-nationalist Ukrainian regime and was an accomplice of its criminal military activities against the citizens of Donbass, now it has become a direct aggressor against both the people of the DPR and the LPR, and against Russia as a whole.

Less than two days after the signing of the lend-lease law, the House of Representatives of Congress approved the allocation of almost $ 40 billion to Ukraine for military, economic and humanitarian "assistance" to the unpredictable Kiev regime, which has created a dangerous hotbed of tension in Europe. In particular, out of this amount, $6 billion should go to the provision of weapons and security assistance, $8.7 billion – for economic assistance and financing of the work of state services of Ukraine, $5 billion – for food aid to it and other countries of the world, $900 million. dollars are intended to support Ukrainian refugees. In addition, 3.9 billion will be allocated to strengthen American troops in Europe, which, excluding the NATO Rapid Reaction Forces (40 thousand troops), there are about 100 thousand soldiers and officers.

The new amount of 40 billion must be approved by the Senate, and then by Joseph Biden. It is ten billion more than the previous American tranche allocated to Kiev for the same purposes recently, and ten times exceeded the previous financial package provided to it, which was collected in April this year for similar financing. He personally sent a corresponding request to Congress for this additional funding. He urged lawmakers to immediately approve the draft law so that he could sign it in the near future, warning that otherwise the United States would soon be forced to suspend military and other assistance to Kiev, since the previous resources allocated by Congress are almost exhausted.

The White House welcomed the decision of the House of Representatives, while not forgetting to disclose the types and types of weapons and military equipment that are supposed to be transferred to the Ukrainian militarists. "The additional resources included in this bill will allow us to send more weapons, such as artillery and armored vehicles, as well as ammunition to Ukraine. They will also help us replenish our arsenals and support US troops on the territory of [other countries] of NATO," the press secretary of the American president, Jen Psaki, said in a statement.

Declaring its readiness to contribute to the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine and to achieve appropriate agreements by diplomatic means, Washington is actually acting the opposite: it is delaying Kiev's aggression against Donbass.

As in the past, Russia's adequate measures in response to the lend-lease act and the new financing of Kiev's war against Donbass will not take long to wait.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

 

 

Report # 78. Russia liberated significant areas in the LPR and the DPR

 

June 7th, 2022

1. New figures related to the SVO in Ukraine have been revealed

On May 7th, 2022 Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced new figures related to the implementation of the Special Military Operation (SVO) in Ukraine. He addressed National Centre for State Defense Control in Moscow via a teleconference with the leadership of the national Armed Forces.

He said that a significant part of the LPR and DPR, including Svyatogorsk, has been liberated, including 97 percent of the LPR and 70 percent of the DPR. Over the past ten days, 51 pieces of foreign military equipment have been destroyed in Ukraine, including 21 howitzers [including U.S. M777] and two MLRS earlier sent to Ukraine. 6,489 Ukrainian military men surrendered. The seaports of Mariupol and Berdyansk at the Azov Sea, controlled by the RF, are operating normally and are ready to ship grain. Zaporozhskaya NPP, controlled by the Russian forces and generating nearly 50% of all Ukrainian nuclear generated energy is working normally.

Totally 33 coal mines, two oil fields and 14 gas fields taken over by Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics during the SVO also continue to operate normally. The liberated territories contain up to 57% of Ukraine's steelmaking capacity.

While retreating, Ukrainian nationalists seek to cause maximum damage to these industries.  In turn, the Russian military, while liberating Donbass, is taking industry facilities under its protection, thus preserving the potential for the development of the region's economy.

The liberated territories Donbass can produce 10 million tons of grain crops and 1.4 million of vegetable crops per year.

An automobile communication between the territory of Russia along the mainland to the Crimea has been opened via Donbass. The unhindered water supply of the Crimean Peninsula through the North Crimean Canal that has been blocked by Kiev in violation of humanitarian law has been resumed. Railroad system between Russia, Donbass, Ukraine and Crimea resumed on six railway sections of total length 1,200 km. 

More than 27,000 tons of goods (food, basic necessities and medicines) have been handed over to civilians.

2. The Russian Ombudswoman made critical remarks on the ICRC

Tatyana Moskalkova, the Russian Ombudswoman, made critical statement on the inefficiency of the International Committee of the Red Cross in dealing with the Russian POW held in Ukraine: "It is of great concern that the International Committee of the Red Cross has so far never informed us about the visit of our Russian prisoners of war [in Ukraine]. We do not have information on how compliance with international norms and rules is monitored in relation to our servicemen who find themselves in this situation," she said.

At the same time, Tatyana Moskalkova noted that she visited Ukrainian POWs in Sevastopol and made sure that their rights were fully respected in accordance with international norms and principles, and are provided with all essential humanitarian needs: bed linen, food and medical care. "I held a personal meetings there. After that, at their request, I informed their relatives about their fate, what they asked for. It is very important that the humanitarian component of our line, the human rights commissioners, work," she added.

It was not the first attempt by the Russian Ombudswoman to knock the door to the ICRC in order to clarify this issue. All her efforts were in vain.

Last April she has asked the ICRC to help in arranging a visit to Russian servicemen held captive by Ukrainian forces, by noting that the ICRC had often served as “the last resort” for the relatives of prisoners of war in the past, as it was the only authority which could provide some information about their loved ones and describe their condition. She outlined that Moscow is unaware of the psychological and physical condition of the Russian servicemen. It is also unclear whether they are getting medical assistance or if the provisions of the Geneva Convention are being observed by the Ukrainian side. “It would be very bitter to realize that such a respected organization as the ICRC had forgotten about the universal principles of humanism, and, like many other international structures, is guided by double standards in relation to our prisoners,” the ombudswoman said.

However, according to Tatyana Moskalkova, neither the Russian government nor the soldiers’ relatives have so far received any information from the ICRC about POWs held in Ukraine. Total blackout.

“Therefore, I once again turned to the president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, Mr. Peter Maurer, with a request to provide information about Russian prisoners of war and help me or my representatives visit them. I really hope that my other appeal will not go unnoticed,” Tatyana Moskalkova wrote.

3. Ukrainian nationalists set fire to the wooden religious skete in the DPR and grain in Mariupol

Testimonies of local residents and monks in liberated Svyatogorsk, Donetsk People's Republic, confirm that Ukrainian nationalists while retreating deliberately set fire to the wooden skete of All Saints' of the Russian Land on June 5.

They set fire to the newly built wooden skete of All Saints' of the Russian Land built in 2009 with a burst of incendiary ammunition. It was not only the monks who tried unsuccessfully to put out the burning skete, but also the members of the local territorial defence who came to help them. The nationalists prevented this by intimidation fire.

Such barbaric act is another evidence brought about by the hostile Ukrainian regime to religious traditions of its citizens. The values of the Ukrainian Nazis in Kiev are the opposite of the historical values of the Orthodox people in Ukraine.

Thus, Zelensky with his statements about Russia's allegedly conscious destruction of Ukraine's cultural heritage and his demands to expel Russia from UNESCO and the UNO for this once again lied not only to the Ukrainian people, but also to the entire international community.

Ukrainian Armed Forces also set fire to tonnes of grain in Mariupol port during retreat. Grain storage facility in Mariupol port could hold up to 57 tonnes of grain.

“On the territory of the port of Mariupol there is a large amount of grain, it is both corn grain and wheat grain. Judging by the smell and appearance, it is unfit for further use, most of it. This is conditioned by the fact that the enemy, retreating from the port, set fire to the granaries so that this grain would not reach the DPR, so that it would be impossible to use it in any way. It was put out for several days, but to no avail,” Yan Gagin, an adviser to the DPR’s head of government, told RIA Novosti.

4. Situation on the battlefields

On May 6th, Ukrainian barrier troops blew up a road bridge in the town of Svyatogorsk in the northern part of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). The move left Ukrainian military units, namely remnants of the battalions of the 95th Airborne Assault Brigade and the 81st Separate Airborne Brigade trapped in the town.

“Cut off from the main forces and supply lines due to the destruction of the bridge, [the troops] abandoned military equipment and their weaponry and scattered along the bank” of the Seversky Donets river.

Despite the blockage, some 80 Ukrainian soldiers trapped in the town of Svyatogorsk managed to escape Russian troops by swimming Ukrainian military is using ‘barrier troops’, a discipline-keeping unit comprising hardcore nationalists, to prevent other units from retreating, usually killing them as ‘cowards’. Russian troops did not open fire at them giving them a chance to escape.

In other developments, Russian high-precision air-based missiles have hit 2 command posts, 3 firing positions of artillery batteries, as well as 18 areas of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment concentration.

2 ammunition depots have been destroyed in the areas of Vrubovka and Yakovlevka in Lugansk People's Republic.

Operational-tactical aviation have hit 65 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration.

The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 170 nationalists, 9 tanks, 2 Grad multiple rocket launchers, 1 battery of field artillery and 8 various purpose vehicles.

Russian air defence means have shot down 12 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Liptsy, Streleche, Dement'evka, Borodoyarskoe, Mar'ino, Petrovskoe, Grakovo, Malye Prokhody in Kharkov Region, as well as Vasil'ievka in Nikolaev Region, overnight.

Russian missile troops and artillery have hit 39 command posts, 49 firing positions of AFU artillery, as well as 426 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration.

The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 400 nationalists, 10 armoured vehicles, 3 Grad MLRS, 10 special combat vehicles, and 3 launchers of S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems near Kramatorsk.

In addition, shelling resulted in the destruction of one 155mm self-propelled howitzer (M109A3) donated by Norway, 2 US 155mm howitzers (M777), and 7 field artillery and mortars, including 1 203mm Pion self-propelled artillery mount.

In total, from 24th February, 190 Ukrainian aircraft and 129 helicopters, 1,139 unmanned aerial vehicles, 333 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,443 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 478 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,807 field artillery and mortars, as well as 3,464 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.

5. The DPR Justice Minister: some Azov nationalists will face death penalty

The death penalty awaits some fighters of the Azov regiment for their crimes against the civilian inhabitants of Donbas. This was announced by Yuriy Sirovatko, the Minister of Justice of the DPR. He stressed that capital punishment can be imposed only for especially grave crimes involving attempts on a person’s life. At the same time, Sirovatko recalled that such crimes “with particular cruelty number in the hundreds or even thousands” against residents of Donbass.

In his words, the rights of all Ukrainian prisoners of war, regardless of the type of military formation, were respected. All have been provided with normal food and the necessary medical care. According to reports, there are currently over 2,300 captured POWs of the Ukrainian nationalist battalions on the territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic alone.

Earlier, it was reported that a court case against British and Moroccan mercenaries who had fought in the Ukrainian Armed Forces started in Donetsk. The fighters face the death penalty.

The Prosecutor General’s Office of the LPR has opened about 600 criminal cases on the crimes of Ukrainian formations in that republic since the aggravation of the situation in the Donbass in February 2022, said the official representative of the department, Inna Semenova.

6. Head of Hungarian MFA shared the opinion that Zelensky has mental problems

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto supported the assumption of the Speaker of the country’s Parliament Laszlo Kever about the presence of mental problems with Vladimir Zelensky. Peter Szijjarto noted that the official government of Kyiv allowed itself unacceptable statements against Hungary.  “Based on all this, Laszlo Kever is absolutely right, even if the Ukrainians are outraged by this,” Szijjártó agreed. Earlier, Kever said that the statements of the President of Ukraine sometimes sound very strange and it is likely that Vladimir Zelensky faced “some kind of personal mental problem”.


Annex

1. KIEV CONTINUES THE THIRD AGGRESSION VS DONBASS

Day in, day out the Kiev criminal and failed regime continues shelling of civilians in Donbass hating it from 2014 when it unleashed three successive wars against its people.

On June 4, the rocket artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine delivered a massive blow to the Kuibyshev and Petrovsky districts of the capital of the DPR. Two civilians were killed, two more were seriously injured, a hospital, residential buildings were damaged, an ambulance was destroyed.

On June 5, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched rocket attacks on residential areas in the center of Donetsk and the villages of Elenovka and Panteleimonovka. The strikes were carried out by the Grad MLRS and 122 mm and 155 mm artillery. Residential buildings, the Central Market, an electrical substation and a radio-television center were damaged. There are victims among the local population. It was established that the shelling was conducted from the territory of the Ukrainian-controlled settlement of Georgievka.

Every day the intensity of such Ukrainian "combat operations" with the targeted destruction of assets located outside the areas of combat operations increases. The Ukrainian Armed Forces suffer defeats and abandon previously held settlements in Donbass due to the multiple superiority of the Russian Armed Forces in firepower. In order to reduce the rates of occurrence of the armed forces and attract the attention of the West the command of the AFU, acting like retreating in 1943 the Nazi Germany, shelling everybody and everything every day.

On June 6 and 7, 2022 the AFU shelled Donbass with more than 300 shells and missiles per day. More than ten civilians were killed, two dozen of them injured. Ukrainian and the U.S., French, Polish and the UK heavy weapons have been used indiscriminately against houses, schools, hospitals and social infrastructure.

According to the UN High Commissioner, over 14,000 civilians have been killed in Donbass since 2014. And this figure continues to grow. Since the beginning of the Russian special military operation, the Investigative Committee of Russia (ICR) has initiated more than 800 criminal cases under articles for genocide and ill-treatment of the civilian population in Donbass. In cooperation with the law enforcement agencies of the DPR and the LPR, all the circumstances are being established and a thorough investigation of the crimes committed is being conducted. "All those involved in the brutal crimes against the civilians in Donbass will be identified and, of course, will be punished as they deserve," said Aleksandr Bastrykin, the Chairman of the ICR.

In addition, there has been a tendency for the AFU to strike at border settlements located on the territory of the Russian Federation. Since the end of April, various populated non-military areas located in the Belgorod, Kursk, Oryol, Voronezh and Bryansk Regions have been hit. The Kiev regime prefers not to take responsibility for the strikes, covering its criminal acts with provocations.

The Russian Federation has repeatedly warned both the Ukrainian authorities and the ‘Western partners’ supplying the Kiev regime with weapons about the imminent retaliatory actions and the elimination of any possibility of strikes both on peaceful settlements in Donbass and on the Russian territory. Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev assures that "when attacking our cities, the Russian Armed Forces will fulfill their threat and strike at the centers of criminal decision-making," which, according to him, are often located outside Ukraine.

Further supplies of weapons by Western countries to Ukraine not only lead to further escalation of the conflict, but also involve third countries in the so-far formally bilateral Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The situation will radically change if Western weapons are sanctioned to be used against assets on the territory of Russia, or will be directed against the civilian population of the south-east of Ukraine.

2. HUGE U.S. AND POLISH SPENDING ON UKRAINE. NOT TO BE RETURNED

On June 3, the American media publication Politico published a demand from the US Congress to Joseph Biden on the provision of a report on the expenditure of aid provided to Ukraine for more than $ 40 billion. Congressmen expressed doubt about the ability of the White House to account for the unprecedented amount of funds transferred, as well as to track the weapons and equipment supplied to Kiev that proved to be hostile, but inefficient. The Pentagon has previously barely coped with reports. Thus, information on the costs associated with ensuring the security of partners in Europe was not provided in a timely and incomplete manner.

The aid, estimated at such huge amount, is already the seventh package that the United States has allocated to Ukraine.

The first one was authorized on February 25, with two packages arriving in March and three in April. The Speaker of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Vyacheslav Volodin believes that Kiev directly receives no more than 15 percent of the funds allocated by ‘Western partners’. In the signed decree Joseph Biden carried out a detailed distribution of funds allocated to Ukraine.

35 percent of this amount will be used to finance the U.S. armed forces in Europe ($3.9 billion) and for replenishment of U.S. weapons stocks ($9 billion). More than 45 percent is also planned to be spent not on Ukraine, but on other countries, including world food security ($5 billion) and long-term support for NATO allies ($2 billion). About 5 percent more is provided for assistance to refugees ($1 billion) and for other purposes.

The United States, by providing Ukraine with so-called financial assistance, intends to extract significant economic benefits. Obligations to repay the full amount of the debt are imposed on Kiev who will lives with empty wallet during many decades to come. However, the Kiev regime, anticipating the next "cut" of the percentages they rely upon, turns a blind eye to the absence of almost $ 13 billion in the estimate of the intended purpose, which, first of all, the U.S. Congress was interested in.

A new type of business is flourishing in Ukraine itself – the sale of humanitarian aid coming from the West. Almost every day criminal cases are initiated against enterprising officials who make quick money on everything that comes as a gift to Ukrainians. But, apparently, three years staying behind the bars do not frighten anyone – the scale of thefts is only growing. Harvest sacks of money as soon as possible, and free from the country as quickly as you can. That is the credo of such ‘businessmen’.

Whole supermarkets have appeared on the network, ready to send fully assembled different types of weapons to anywhere in the world, including Africa, the USA, Germany and, of course, Ukraine. A Javelin AT missile costs at the ‘white markets’ (that is openly) in Ukraine $ 30.000. Lots in such stores with various firearms, ammunition and military attire have mashroomed there. It is even possible to sell and purchase weapons from Ukraine "from hand to hand". Individual sellers have already made more than thirty huge transactions.

More deadly weapons to be sent to Kiev from Poland to continue aggression vs Donbass.

The Polish authorities announced new arms supplies to Ukraine worth almost $630 million. Warsaw will sign a contract for the supply of weapons to Ukraine worth almost $630 million. This was stated by Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of State Assets of Poland Jacek Sasin. "As a matter of fact, we are now signing one of the largest, if not the largest, arms export contracts in the last 30 years. The sale of weapons for Ukrainians, to Ukraine," Moravetsky admitted. "There has not been such a contract in the Polish defense industry in the last 30 years," he said.

Earlier, the Polish government said that Poland had transferred weapons worth more than $1.6 billion to Ukraine. As reported by Polish Radio, the Ukrainian army received from Poland 18 Krab self-propelled howitzers, more than 200 T-72 tanks and several dozen infantry fighting vehicles.

The team of Volodymir Zelensky is not only unable to pay back foreign debts to wage three wars in 2014-2022, but it is a tricky thing that it not going to do it all.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 90. About 12,000 Ukrainian troops are trapped in Lisichansk

June 27, 2022

1. Lisichansk is in a cauldron

Ukrainian command is trying to stop the chaotic escape of Ukrainian servicemen near Lisichansk amid the success of Russian army within liberating Donbass.

A Right Sector Nazi barrier unit was sent to hold the personnel of the first battalion from 72nd Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) near Volcheyarovka. Russian artillery has eliminated this unit.

The Ukrainian troops involved in operation towards Lisichansk are no longer controlled. Commander of 115th Independent Mechanised Brigade of the AFU who deployed its command post in the rear area has lost control over his units that caused losing 80 percent of manpower and about 70 percent of equipment of 138th Battalion from this brigade during operations.

According to Vitaly Kiselyov, Assistant Minister of Internal Affairs of the LPR, about 12 thousand Ukrainian military are now concentrated in the area of Lisichansk. Artillerymen of the LPR troops are giving nationalists in the city the last chance to surrender. The soldiers fire ‘leaflet shells’ to AFU positions for that purpose.

According to the NYT [“How Russia regained momentum in eastern Ukraine” released on June 22, 2022], “Victory in Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk [Ukrainian spelling] would see Russia claim full control of the Luhansk [Ukrainian spelling] region, one of the two areas that make up the Donbas [Ukrainian spelling].”

The LPR Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik said that all hostages taken by AFU on the territory of the Azot chemical plant have been released.

2. The fate of foreign mercenaries

On June 26, Russian units eliminated two sabotage and reconnaissance groups of mercenaries formed by 14 militants during the combats that took place 3 km from Lisichansk oil refinery (the LPR).

The first group was international and consisted of citizens from various European countries. The second was formed by mercenaries only from Georgia who were parts of the so-called Georgian Legion that is mostly composed of criminals. The eliminated Georgian mercenaries were involved in the brutal torture and murder of Russian servicemen near Kiev in March this year. Russian Defence Ministry has exact information about each mercenary involved in torturing and murdering Russian servicemen.

Mercenaries from Poland and more than 120 British, French and Americans are located in Lisichansk, which is being stormed by troops of the Luhansk People's Republic. This was reported to TASS on June 26 by the Assistant Minister of Internal Affairs of the LPR Vitaly Kiselyov."Small groups are trying to escape from Lisichansk to Soledar, Kramatorsk, and mercenaries even further - to the Pavlograd area.

There are some Poles, British - 37 people, French - 21 people and Americans - 64 people are also in Lisichansk," Kisilev added.

3. Situation on the battlefield in general

The United States will announce this week that it is sending Ukraine an advanced air defense system, U.S. officials said on June 27. The Biden administration intends to send to Ukraine a Norwegian-made NASAMS system (see photo below; © Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace) — an advanced, medium-to-long-range surface-to-air missile defense system — that will allow Ukraine to defend its forces from greater distances, an official familiar with the decision said. According to Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s National Security Adviser, told reporters at the G7 summit in Germany that the USA wishes “to finalize a package that includes advanced medium- and long-range air defense capabilities for the Ukrainians,” but did not provide further details on any specific system. He also added that the package would include some other items that are of urgent need, including ammunition for artillery and Moscow reacts to reports of new weapons for Ukrainecounter battery radar systems.

Moscow negatively reacted to reports of new weapons for Ukraine. Russia continues to safeguard its interests, the Kremlin has said in response to reports about Washington’s plans to send new missile systems to Ukraine. “We didn’t receive any notifications on the matter. As far as actions to defend [our] interests are concerned, [we are] making them on a regular basis,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on June 27. In his words, “flooding” Ukraine with foreign weapons will not change the course of the conflict and will only lead to more suffering and destruction in Ukraine.

Such announcement was regarded in Russian expert community as a move that can create some problems for the Russian Air Force operations, but does not stop Moscow’s commitment to reach the goals of its Special Military Operation launched to defend civilians in Donbass. Some Russian experts noted that such systems should be knocked down as soon as they are delivered by air and later appear on Ukrainian soil.

The US and other NATO countries have been increasingly supplying Kiev with heavy weapons to help it fight Russian troops. The recent deliveries include US-made M142 HIMARS multiple rocket launchers and M777 howitzers.


Actually, the USA and NATO have declared ‘an undeclared war’

 against Russia and Donbass by launching a dangerous high-tech

 proxy war with active role of Zelensky as its prime mover in it


According to the official representative of the DPR: over the past day, the enemy fired more than two hundred and seventy shells from BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket systems, artillery with a caliber of 152 and 122 mm, as well as 120 and 82- mm mortars.

AFU opened fire on Vasilyevka in the Zaporozhye Region liberated by Russia. According to preliminary data, a man was killed as a result of the shelling, said Vladimir Rogov, a member of the Zaporizhye Regional State Administration.

On June 26, Russian Aerospace Forces launched four high-precision air-based missiles at the workshops of Artyom missile corporation located in Shevchenkovsky district in Kiev which was being used to produce ammunition for MLRS used to shell civilians in Donbass. According to live recording data, all four missiles have reached the target.

The facility has been neutralized.

The Russian MoD noted that due to the apparent lack of communication between the Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense systems located in the city, two Ukrainian S-300 rockets were shot down by Ukrainian Buk interceptors, one of which fell on a residential building. Ukrainian S-300 and Buk-M1 air defence system crews had launched over ten air defence missiles.

 The information disseminated by the NYT on June 26, in an article entitled as “Russia launches barrage of missiles across Ukraine” that Russian missiles have hit a kindergarten is a fake. Civilian infrastructure of Kiev has not been affected by Russian pin-point accuracy missiles.

On the other hand, high-precision armament of Russian Aerospace Forces has neutralised the base of 106th Battalion from 63rd Mechanised Infantry Brigade of the AFU near Visunsk (Nikolayev Region).

Over 40 Ukrainian servicemen and 12 units of military equipment have been eliminated. Attacks have also resulted in the elimination of AFU manpower and military equipment in 27 areas, including those that formed part of the Right Sector near Lisichansk, as well as those of Azov and Kraken near Kharkov.

Five AFU command posts and 3 munitions, missile and artillery armament depots have been neutralised near Bereznegovatoye (Nikolayev Region) and Novodruzhesk (the LPR).

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised: 24 command posts, artillery and mortar units in 58 areas, as well as manpower and military equipment in 304 areas.

Within the counter-battery warfare towards Donetsk, high-precision armament of Russian Aerospace Forces has neutralised: 3 Grad MRLS plattoons near Avdeyevka and Dzerzhinsk, a platoon of the U.S.-made M-777 155-mm howitzers near Konstantinovka, 2 Giatsint 152-mm howitzer platoons near Kalinov and Artyomovo, as well as two Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system near Ocheretino and Novolugansk that had been launching attacks at Donetsk and other cities of the Donetsk People's Republic.


From February 24th, 2022 in total, 215 airplanes and 132 helicopters, 1,373 unmanned aerial vehicles, 350 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,830 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 684 combat vehicles equipped with multiple rocket-launching systems, 3,025 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 3,870 special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation


4. Ukraine pulls plug on nuclear cooperation with Russia

Ukraine’s nuclear regulator announced that its head ordered it to stop working with Russia due to the hostilities between the two nations.

A short statement published on June 27 by the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine said that last week, acting Chief Inspector Oleg Korikov ordered that two agreements with Moscow on nuclear regulation be nullified. Signed in 1996 and 2002, they set the legal framework for the agency’s cooperation and information sharing with its Russian counterpart, Rostekhnadzor.

Ukraine’s civilian nuclear industry was built when the country was part of the USSR, and for decades it relied on Russian expertise to keep it running. The Russian producer of nuclear fuel rods has long been the primary supplier of fuel for the nation’s power plants. Who will substitute it? There are several NPP in Ukraine still controlled by Kiev.

5. Zelensky sets deadline for the Ukrainian conflict

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has insisted that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine must be finished by the end of the year. Speaking to the G7 leaders on June 27, Zelensky also called for tougher sanctions against Moscow, according to Reuters, which cited two EU diplomats.

Speaking to the leaders of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the USA via video link, Zelensky reportedly stated that Ukrainian troops would have a much harder time fighting against Russian forces once the harsh winter conditions take hold, urging the G7 to do their utmost to end the conflict by the end of the year, while asking for anti-aircraft defense systems, as well as security guarantees.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

В. Козин: О заявлении шефа Пентагона о продлении ДСНВ-3

 

В комментарии телепрограмме "Вести 24" 20 января член-корреспондент РАВН В.П. Козин обратил внимание на неконкретное высказывание на нового шефа Пентагона о готовности США продлить Договор СНВ-3, поскольку оно не содержало никаких подробностей его возможной пролонгации администрацией Джозефа Байдена. Военный эксперт МГИМО  подверг критике "три предварительных условия" для продления срока этого договорного акта, которые ранее выдвигала администрация Дональда Трампа, так как они не отвечали национальной безопасности России и интересам укрепления глобальной стратегической стабильности. В.П. Козин также отметил, что при решении вопроса о пролонгации Договора СНВ-3 российская сторона должна учитывать реальную готовность или неготовность Вашингтона в полном объеме соблюдать все положения этого договора, вывести все свое ТЯО из пяти государств-членов НАТО на свою территорию, закрыть комбинированные оперативные базы системы ПРО, имеющие антироссийскую направленность и которые могут решать не только оборонительные, но и наступательные ударно-боевые задачи.

В. Козин: Ничего хорошего такое "расширенное партнерство" не принесет

 

Военный эксперт Владимир Козин отметил, что генсек НАТО Йенс Столтенберг в очередной показал намерения принять Грузию и Украину в альянс.
 
Генсек НАТО Йенс Столтенберг заявил, что альянс планирует еще больше углублять свое партнерство с Украиной и Грузией, в том числе в регионе Черного моря. Он пояснил, что по итогам видеоконференции с главами МИД стран альянса был принят пакет мер для поддержки этих стран, который направлен на проведение учений и обеспечение доступа к большему количеству программ образования и подготовки НАТО.
 
"Грузия и Украина уже давно проводят военно-морские учения с некоторыми государствами – членами НАТО, которые присутствуют в этом регионе, и опасность заключается в том, что эти учения не ограничиваются только военно-морскими силами, а проводятся маневры с участием сухопутных и военно-воздушных сил. Поэтому обстановка в этом регионе, естественно, будет осложнена, и степень доверия среди государств региона будет уменьшена. Ничего хорошего такое расширенное партнерство и взаимодействие Грузии и Украины с государствами – членами НАТО не принесет никому", – сказал Козин Sputnik Грузия.
 
По мнению эксперта, в заявлении Столтенберга прослеживается желание руководства НАТО "все-таки притянуть в ряды альянса Грузию и Украину". Это очередной шаг, который направлен на то, чтобы сделать Грузию и Украину полноправными членами Североатлантического союза, отметил он.
 
Институциональное сотрудничество Грузии и НАТО началось в 1994 году, когда Грузия стала участницей программы "Партнерство ради мира".
 
С 2004 года сотрудничество Грузии и НАТО стало более интенсивным, а в 2011 году Грузия получила статус "страны-аспиранта НАТО". В 2014 году на саммите в Уэльсе был утвержден пакет мер, содействующих Грузии в ее стремлении к членству в Альянсе.
 
Руководство НАТО неоднократно заявляло, что двери в НАТО "открыты для Грузии", однако сроки возможного вступления страны в организацию не называются.
 
Россия категорически против усиления сотрудничества Грузии с НАТО и расширения этого Альянса в направлении своих границ. Как заявляет МИД РФ, усилия США и других членов НАТО по милитаризации Грузии вызывают в регионе особую озабоченность. Более того, это не укрепляет безопасность Грузии.
 
 
Источник: Радио Спутник
 
Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/46490

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Полезное, перспективное издание

Как будут развиваться отношения в Евразии до 2025-2050 годов? Какова будет роль России в этом процессе?    

Подробные ответы на эти простые по форме и одновременно сложные по содержанию вопросы прогностического характера дает новая коллективная работа ряда авторов Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО (Университета) МИД России «Долгосрочное прогнозирование развития отношений между локальными цивилизациями в Евразии», вышедшая в конце 2017 года (Москва: Изд. дом «Международные отношения», 2017. 357 с.; ISBN 978-5-906367-53-2). Эта монография продолжила практику выпуска ЦВПИ за последние годы целого ряда исследований аналитического и прогностического характера, касающихся перспективных военно-политических угроз нынешнего столетия и оптимального социально-экономического развития России. В подготовке нынешнего рецензируемого издания, содержащего авторскую методологию долгосрочного прогноза развития международных отношений на значительных геополитических пространствах, приняли участие профессор А.И. Подберезкин (директор Центра, руководитель авторского коллектива), М.В. Харкевич, О.Е. Родионов и О.А. Подберезкина.

Авторы дали общий прогноз развития международной обстановки в этой обширной части света и взаимоотношений между «локальными человеческими цивилизациями», нациями и государствами в Евразии вначале до 2025 года, а затем и до 2050 года в органической увязке с характерными особенностями развития общемировой военно-политической и финансово-экономической ситуации в XXI веке в целом, понимая под термином «локальной человеческой цивилизацией» (ЛЧЦ) определенную часть общества, существующую длительный период времени и проживающую на конкретной территории в устойчивых пространственных границах и объединенную общей системой ценностей, историческим наследием и видением общего будущего.

Позитивным вкладом авторов является то, что они рассмотрели в теоретическом и прикладном срезе вероятное развитие ключевых ЛЧЦ как по отдельности, так и в увязке с взаимоотношениями с сопредельными «локальными человеческими цивилизациями».

В издании рельефно и фактологически основательно отмечен отличающийся друг от друга механизм воздействия ключевых мировых игроков России и КНР, с одной стороны, а также США и западной ЛЧЦ в целом, с другой, на перспективное развитие обстановки в Евразии. Авторы исследования предполагают, что наряду с названными государствами на данной крупнейшей пространственной территории одновременно будут набирать силу и другие традиционные ЛЧЦ, к которым предлагается отнести индийскую, исламскую, индонезийскую и турецкую цивилизации.

В монографии делается вывод, что сценарий развития международных отношений в Евразии в среднесрочной перспективе до 2025 года будет определяться характером и параметрами взаимоотношений различных «локальных человеческих цивилизаций», существующих в этой части света, а также формируемыми ими союзами и коалициями. Одновременно авторы предостерегают от попыток выработки какого-то универсального подхода к созданию единой и взаимоприемлемой схемы развития ЛЧЦ в Евразии для последующих периодов времени, отмечая невозможность ее точного определения в силу воздействия поливариантных объективных и субъективных факторов на такой процесс, наличия ведущих игроков и негосударственных субъектов, преследующих различные цели.

Обращено внимание на опасность инерционного и замедленного развития России в различных областях в случае неприятия соответствующих динамичных мер. Отмечается, что хотя ее политическая роль и значение в мировых делах в перспективе будут возрастать, тем не менее, если Россия будет развиваться такими же темпами, как в последние годы, то вплоть до 2050 года она будет отставать в экономическом развитии от таких ведущих экономик мира как китайская, которая к этому сроку займет первое место в мире, а также от экономик Индии и США, которые, соответственно, выйдут на второе и третье места. Признавая, что «проблема инерционности и неадекватности принимаемых решений – самая трудная и наименее поддающаяся решению проблема современной России», составители монографии предлагают повысить эффективность управления и осуществить правильный «выбор вектора развития страны» (с. 250).

Коллектив авторов видят выход из сложившейся ситуации только в ускоренном и опережающем социально-экономическом и научно-техническом прогрессе России, достигаемом в рамках ее долгосрочной стратегии развития. Именно в подобном образе действий они рассматривают возможность противостоять военно-силовым методам западной ЛЧЦ, применение которых, по их мнению, к 2021-2025 годам может стать более активным. В этой связи предлагается повысить качество прогнозирования конфликтных ситуаций, в которых могут применяться описываемые методы, а также уровень разработки способов урегулирования подобных катаклизмов.

В монографии справедливо указывается на растущую военную активность и наращивание гибридных угроз НАТО вблизи границ России, в том числе за счет развертывания «сил передового базирования» и объединенных сил повышенной оперативной готовности (с.149-151). Как известно, в мае 2012 года страны-участницы Североатлантического союза на своем саммите в Чикаго создали «чикагскую триаду» – стратегическое объединение ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных вооружений трансатлантического альянса, которые предполагается использовать против Российской Федерации, ее союзников и друзей (особенности развития каждого элемента такого механизма подробно изложены в монографии: В.Козин. Чикагская триада» США и НАТО: ее последствия для России. М.: Изд-во имени Сабашниковых. 2016. 210 с., а также в монографии: V.Kozin. U.S. Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Reduction or Modernization? M.: Sabashnikov’s Publishing House. 2017. 556 pp.).

Авторы коллективного издания «Долгосрочное прогнозирование развития отношений между локальными цивилизациями в Евразии» приходят к выводу о том, что главной тенденцией развития международной обстановки в первой половине XXI века в Евразии будет усиление противоборства «локальных человеческих цивилизаций», которое «… в возрастающей степени будет опираться на силовые инструменты политики» (с.335). В этой связи высказываются предложения о внесении изменений в методику оценки и стратегического прогноза угроз национальной безопасности Российской Федерации, а также об уточнении оценки военно-политического характера существующих для нее внешних угроз и о пересмотре оценки потенциальных перспективных угроз ее национальной безопасности (с.342-346).

Авторы предполагают, что нынешняя американская администрация во главе с Дональдом Трампом будет стремиться сохранить «американское лидерство» в глобальной политике в течение всего периода его президентства. Более того, высказывается гипотеза, что такое лидерство и ставка на «первенство» не только сохранятся в результате избрания последующих президентов США после окончательного завершения его полномочий, но и, возможно, упрочатся. Высказывается предположение, что одновременно в среднесрочной перспективе укрепится возглавляемая Вашингтоном и широкая западная коалиция, которая на начало 2018 года насчитывала 73 государства (с.144).

Позитивным представляется включение в проведенное исследование сотрудниками ЦВПИ раздела об эволюции глобальной системы ПРО США и НАТО (с.161-165), о развитии в Соединенных Штатах ракетно-ядерных вооружений (с. 166-167), а также прогноза о возможности выхода Вашингтона из Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, подписанного в 1987 году, о чем недвусмысленно было заявлено в решениях американского Конгресса в прошедшем году.

С учетом различных факторов, определяющих внешнюю политику США в настоящее время после прихода к власти Республиканской партии на президентских выборах, делается вывод о том, что линия нынешнего 45-го американского президента на прагматизм и первенство имеет довольно «агрессивное измерение» (с. 154), что впоследствии подтвердила и подписанная 18 декабря 2017 года Дональдом Трампом «Стратегия национальной безопасности» страны, в критическом ключе воспринятая на официальном уровне в России и КНР.

Новая монография сотрудников ЦВПИ имеет большой иллюстративный материал в виде рисунков, таблиц, графиков и схем, которые позволяют лучше понять суждения и прогнозы ее составителей, а также содержит словарь, включающий свыше 70 терминологических определений.

Подготовленная монография вполне может представить интерес для широкого круга специалистов-теоретиков и экспертов-практиков, занимающихся теоретическими и прикладными вопросами стратегического прогнозирования развития международной обстановке в Евразии, а также различными аспектами планирования социально-экономического развития и военного строительства России в среднесрочной и долгосрочной перспективе. Представляется, что это перспективное и полезное издание также может быть включено в список рекомендуемой литературы при использовании в учебном процессе различных высших учебных и научно-исследовательских заведений, занимающихся вопросами долгосрочного прогнозирования и стратегической аналитики.

Автор: В.П. Козин – член-корреспондент Российской Академии естественных наук, профессор Академии военных наук Российской Федерации

 

 

США неуклонно идут к выходу из ДРСМД

Официально объявив в начале февраля этого года о приостановке своего участия в Договоре о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности 1987 года (ДРСМД), а затем и о полном выходе из него начиная со 2 августа этого года, Соединенные Штаты продолжают запущенный ими в одностороннем порядке процесс разрыва с этим важным договорным актом, который позволил к лету 1991 года уничтожить сразу два класса ядерных ракет средней и меньшей дальности.

Ранее казалось, что Договор устраивал Вашингтон во всех отношениях. Еще бы. По его условиям СССР уничтожил в два раза больше носителей ядерного оружия, чем США. Но теперь события развиваются совершенно по-другому сценарию, разработанному Белым домом. Сейчас он объясняет свое решение о выходе из ДРСМД фактом его «несоблюдения» российской стороной, якобы, путем создания и развертывания новой крылатой ракеты наземного базирования (КРНБ) с индексом 9М729.

Но никаких доказательств по этому поводу американская сторона предоставить до сих пор не смогла.Не удовлетворили ее и многочисленные разъяснения, которые Москва дала Вашингтону за последние пять лет в ходе около тридцати официальных консультаций, проведенных с американскими должностными лицами. Соединенные Штаты уже давно отвергли российские инициативы, направленные на урегулирование претензий в контексте выполнения договора 1987 года через взаимные меры транспарентности. Вашингтон не проявил готовности к продолжению диалога, а сделал необоснованный упор на предъявлении российской стороне странного по форме и неприемлемого по содержанию ультиматума, суть которого состояла в требовании уничтожения КРНБ 9М729.

Вполне справедлив вопрос: а не нарушала ли сама американская сторона ДРСМД? Факты, относящиеся «к упрямым вещам», говорят: нарушала. И не раз. За последние почти 20 лет Пентагон использовал ракеты-мишени средней и меньшей дальности 117 раз при проверке эффективности глобальной системы ПРО США. Это были новые ракеты-мишени шести вариантов, специально созданные в Соединенных Штатах для одновременного решения двух задач: тестирования ракет-перехватчиков системы ПРО, а также ракет средней и меньшей дальности.

Первое использование американскими военными ракет-перехватчиков «противоракетного щита» для перехвата ракеты-мишени меньшей дальности, подпадающей под терминологические определения договора, датируется 2 октября 1999 года. То есть, почти 20 лет назад.

Короче говоря, США уже давно фактически и в одностороннем порядке вышли из этого договора. Так в чем же заключаются истинные мотивы выхода американских контрагентов из ДРСМД, если до сих пор им не удалось доказать его «нарушения» Российской Федерацией?

Представляется, что таких мотивов у нынешнего американского руководства было несколько.

Первое. США хотят создать и разместить в Европе, Азии и Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе новые типы мобильно-грунтовых крылатых и баллистических ракет средней дальности в ядерном снаряжении с целью сдерживания мнимой «российской, китайской, иранской и северокорейской ракетной угрозы».

Второе. Вашингтон намерен повторить опасную ситуацию, созданную «двойным решением» НАТО, принятым в декабре 1979 года, когда альянс дал «зеленый свет» складированию 846 американских ядерных ракет средней дальности в ряде государств Европы, что вызвало острейший ракетно-ядерный кризис между США/НАТО и СССР.

Третье. В США рассчитывают добиться от России одностороннего согласия на уничтожение ряда современных баллистических и крылатых ракет меньшей, средней и даже межконтинентальной дальности, а также перспективные гиперзвуковые комплексы, которые никак не подпадают под определения договора 1987 года, только за то, что Вашингтон не выйдет из ДРСМД.

Четвертое. Через собственный инициативный отказ от ДРСМД нынешнее военно-политическое руководство Америки стремится вовлечь в диалог по вступлению в обновленный диалог по проблематике введения ограничений на ракеты средней и меньшей дальности Китай, который не желает становиться его участником.

Пятое. Искусственно обостряя ситуацию в ракетноядерной области, в Белом доме хотели бы оказать давление на своих союзников по НАТО, с тем чтобы все они сначала довели уровень собственных военных расходов относительно их ВВП до двух процентов, а в перспективе и до четырех.

Очевидно, что развал ДРСМД будет иметь самые негативные последствия для международной безопасности и глобальной стабильности. Может начаться гонка вооружений в нескольких сферах, например, в ракетно-ядерной, противоракетной и космической. Дальнейшей эрозии подвергнется вся система контроля над вооружениями, где и без того Вашингтон негативно относится к двенадцати договорам и соглашениям, заключенным ранее или выдвинутым в качестве международных проектов. Это чревато также серьёзными угрозами для сохранения режима нераспространения ядерного оружия и перспектив дальнейших ограничений ядерных вооружений.

Но Соединенные Штаты подобная перспектива явно не волнует. А жаль. В таком случае вся ответственность за обострение международной обстановки возлагается только на Вашингтон и его союзников по НАТО.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: ИнфоШОС: Журнал Шанхайской организации сотрудничества

 

 

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США. Безумцы средней дальности

Вся система мировой безопасности под угрозой – уверяют эксперты. Причина тому – громкое заявление президента США, прозвучавшее 21 октября. Трамп пригрозил выйти из договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности. Президент США на встрече со своими сторонниками в Неваде также обвинил Россию в том, что она «многие годы» нарушала это соглашение. Почему США готовы разорвать ключевой документ для мировой безопасности, который был подписан 31 год назад? К чему приведет стремление Трампа снова вернуть мир к однополярной модели? И какие последствия может иметь расторжение договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, если у США будут полностью развязаны руки?

Программа "Специальный репортаж" на телеканале "Звезда". Эфир от 25.10.2018г.

"Европейцам надоело вмешательство США в их дела"

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "Открытый эфир" на телеканале "Звезда".

 

Эфир от 13 ноября 2018г.

 

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"Карибский кризис 3.0"? Как Россия должна реагировать на расширение НАТО

Карибский кризис 1962-го года, когда Советский Союз в ответ на размещение Соединенными Штатами в Турции и Италии ядерных ракет средней дальности разместил свое ядерное оружие на Кубе, поставил мир на порог войны.

Тогда в течение нескольких дней кризис удалось разрешить дипломатическим путем. СССР согласился убрать свое ядерное оружие с Кубы при условии, что США дают гарантии безопасности острова и вывозят свои ракеты из Италии и Турции.

Сегодня российско-американские отношения вновь оказались на грани конфликта, подобно тому, как это было в 1962 году, но в еще более опасной форме.

Каким может быть исход нового ядерного противостояния, в интервью Baltnews рассказал член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ (РАВН), член-корреспондент Российской Академии естественных наук (РАЕН) Владимир Козин.

– Г-н Козин, Россия заявляет, что рассматривает вхождение в НАТО Украины и Грузии как "красные линии". Почему в 2004 году, когда в состав альянса вошли страны Балтии, подобной риторики со стороны Москвы не было?

– Мы всегда относились с большой настороженностью к расширению НАТО в восточном направлении, в том числе включению в альянс Литвы, Латвии и Эстонии.

Мы выступали и выступаем против того, что как раз именно с 2004 года была введена в действие операция военно-воздушных сил НАТО "Балтийское воздушное патрулирование", в которой принимают участие боевые самолеты пятнадцати государств – членов НАТО, то есть половина нынешнего списочного состава альянса из 30 государств.

В ней задействованы самолеты двойного назначения, в том числе принадлежащие трем хорошо известным ядерным государствам Запада – Великобритании, США и Франции. А также самолеты-носители ядерного оружия ряда европейских государств, которые не имеют своего собственного ядерного оружия, но размещают американское тактическое ядерное оружие в виде авиационных ядерных авиабомб, которые могут доставляться довольно быстро.

Военно-воздушная база Зокняй под Шяуляем в Литве, Лиелварде в Латвии, Эмари в Эстонии модернизированы и созданы для того, чтобы не только принимать истребители-бомбардировщики средней дальности, но и американские тяжелые стратегические бомбардировщики, которые однозначно являются носителями ядерного оружия. То есть не двойного назначения, а однозначно относимые к ядерным средствам доставки стратегического назначения.

Мы, конечно, выступали всегда против размещения различных тяжелых видов вооружений на территории государств Балтии, создания там различных многонациональных бригад Североатлантического пакта, вооруженных "до зубов", складских помещений для хранения оружия, командно-штабных структур альянса и так далее.

Вы правы, когда говорите, что в прошлом Российская Федерация в меньшей степени выступала против вхождения в НАТО государств, входивших ранее в СССР, чем сейчас. Все рассчитывала на какое-то понимание с их стороны, на развитие сотрудничества и укрепление равной безопасности. Не получилось. Все такие попытки с нашей стороны были восприняты в НАТО как "слабость" Москвы.

В настоящее время Россия особо выступает против вступления в НАТО Украины и Грузии, а также против вхождения туда и нейтральных государств – Швеции и Финляндии.

Украина уже проявила себя как как ультранационалистическое государство, имеет большие милитаристские амбиции, в частности, в отношении гражданского населения Донбасса – двух республик, которые были там образованы по решению их граждан. Грузия имеет территориальные претензии, это тоже неуравновешенное государство.

То есть, в последнем случае речь о государствах, которые однозначно будут ярыми противниками России, от них будет исходить угроза национальной безопасности РФ. Потому что там появятся не только операции типа "Балтийское воздушное патрулирование", а, скажем, "украинское" или "грузинское" воздушное патрулирование с использованием самолетов-носителей ядерного оружия, но и ударные средства наступательного характера – ракеты различной дальности, противоракетные средства и другие виды вооружений. Будут созданы новые военные базы, опорные пункты, командно-штабные структуры НАТО.

Я затронул Финляндию – государство, которое, как известно, после окончания Второй мировой войны и до сих пор официально проводит нейтральную внешнюю политику. К моему большому удивлению, нынешнее руководство страны приняло решение закупить у американцев 64 истребителя-бомбардировщика новейшего пятого поколения F-35A. Это сертифицированный самолет, который может нести на борту ядерные бомбы.

Зачем такое огромное количество ядерных средств доставки нейтральному государству Финляндии, которое, как обещают, уже в июне этого года на очередном саммите Североатлантического альянса в Мадриде может быть принято в альянс (об этом говорят западные государственные деятели уже чуть ли не в открытую)?

Вот эти носители ядерного оружия – самолеты F-35A – уже появились во многих государствах Европы, в частности в Норвегии, Дании, Италии. Италия уже направляет свои самолеты F-35A в воздушное пространство государств Балтии. И в мае этого года Италия получит уже первую партию новейших американских ядерных авиабомб B-61-12, которые имеют максимальный ядерный боезаряд 50 килотонн – это в три раза больше, чем известная хиросимская бомба, которую американцы сбросили в 1945 году на Хиросиму.

Пока после распада Советского Союза НАТО не расширялось на восток, у нас в целом отношения с альянсом были довольно ровные. Россия вступила в программу НАТО "Партнерство ради мира", впоследствии был создан Совет Россия – НАТО.

Мне довелось принимать участие в совместных с ВМС США и Великобританией, а также ВМФ России операциях по противодействию пиратству на морях, в отработке поисково-спасательных операций на море, совершать полеты на американских самолетах, высаживаться даже на американский атомный авианосец Kitty Hawk в Тихом океане.

Тогда был очень большой делегационный обмен по дипломатической и военной линиям, то есть все в целом развивалось в деловой атмосфере и без противостояния.

Но как только руководство НАТО решило принять в свои ряды практически все государства Европы, да еще с культивированием там русофобских и милитаристских настроений, то дело пошло наперекосяк. Потому что новые члены НАТО стали превращаться в плацдарм для создания угрозы национальной безопасности РФ.

Поэтому Россия и передала США и НАТО предложения о гарантиях безопасности 15 декабря прошлого года. Там нет никаких ультимативных требований. Все формулировки написаны на основе взаимности и с готовностью укрепить равновеликую безопасность для всех сторон. Если бы эти документы были одобрены в США и в НАТО, то, конечно, безопасность в Европе выиграла бы от этого.

У США и Североатлантического союза нет никаких оснований угрожать нам. И мы никому и не угрожаем. У нас более благородные задачи: сделать свою страну богаче, повысить уровень жизни населения, сделать Россию более эффективной и мощной страной.

– Какова вероятность того, что Запад даст эти письменные гарантии России?

– 20 января президент Джозеф Байден выступил на юбилейной пресс-конференции по случаю первого года своего вступления в должность. Я понял его так, что он готов до бесконечности разговаривать с нами по различным вопросам контроля над вооружениями и европейской безопасности, но не готов дать нам никаких письменных гарантий, особенно постатейно на два российских проекта, переданные в середине декабря прошлого года Соединенных Штатам и НАТО.

Генеральный секретарь НАТО Йенс Столтенберг вообще предложил продолжать переговоры с Москвой "за закрытыми дверями", не информируя о них мировую общественность. Значит – без письменных ответов?

17 января этого года появился еще один негативный признак того, что они никаких гарантий безопасности давать нам не будут.

Я имею в виду утвержденную в НАТО новую "Всеобъемлющую космическую политику". Суть ее  заключается в том, что космос  объявляется зоной военных действий, он повторяет по этому положению  действующую космическую стратегию  США.

Документ предусматривает распространение на все космическое пространство пятой статьи Вашингтонского договора о создании НАТО 1949 года. А в НАТО есть и ядерная, и другие стратегии. Все эти стратегии – и американские, и общенатовские – нацелены против РФ, КНР, Ирана, Северной Кореи. Если 17 января в альянсе "трансатлантической солидарности" приняли одно решение, то каким образом там через несколько дней дадут нам гарантии?

Если космос становится зоной потенциальных боевых действий, то как можно обеспечить гарантии безопасности в других четырех сферах – на море, на суше, в воздухе и в киберпространстве. Никак. Это вещи взаимосвязанные.

Поэтому я пессимистически смотрю на возможность получения письменного ответа американско-натовской стороны на два названных проекта Москвы.

Пока ничего позитивного в таком развитии событий я не вижу. Вижу только затягивание и, к сожалению, воинственные и необоснованные угрозы в адрес России и ее народа. Угрозы – увеличить в еще большем объеме военное присутствие НАТО у российских границ, ввести более жесткие торгово-экономические санкции, нарастить поставки оружия Украине не только по линии США, но и Великобритании.

Но это грубейшее нарушение одного из ведущих принципов Организации по безопасности и сотрудничеству в Европе (ОБСЕ): никогда и ни под каким предлогом нельзя поставлять оружие в районы, где имеются конфликтные ситуации.

– Какое развитие событий вам кажется наиболее вероятным, если положительного ответа от Запада так и не поступит? Как будет действовать Россия?

– Ответ будет простой, по латинской формуле "третьего не дано", то есть ответ военно-техническими методами.

Сейчас США и Россия располагают двумя национальными площадками нанесения потенциального удара по территории друг друга. Это континентальная часть, национальная территория сторон. Один к одному. Но у американцев есть еще "средства передового базирования". Это их термин – не наш.

Это комбинированные виды вооружений, которые складированы за пределами Соединенных Штатов и довольно близко от нашей территории.

Их средства передового базирования – это комбинированные ракетно-ядерные средства, противоракетные системы и силы общего назначения, в том числе тяжелая военная техника.

Итак, у них две зоны против одной нашей, откуда может быть нанесен удар. Соотношение: два к одному. Здесь они впереди. У России средств передового базирования у территории США нет.

Поэтому РФ должна уравнять эти два показателя – сделать два и два. То есть две национальные зоны – территория США и РФ остаются. Если Россия приобретает возможности размещения своих вооружений в зонах передового базирования, то есть близко от американского континента и как можно ближе к Европе, к натовским государствам, то тогда соотношение будет два и два. Счет сравняется. Но этого недостаточно.

Считаю, что мы должны сделать более выгодную нам математическую формулу соотношения сил. Сделать 2,5 – у нас и 2 – у американцев. 0,5 – это современные виды российских вооружений, которые либо уже поступили в состав вооруженных сил РФ, либо те, которые скоро поступят. Я имею в виду семь таких перспективных видов вооружений – то есть шесть, которые назвал наш президент в марте 2018 года, и сейчас появилась ракета "Циркон" – это седьмой вид.

Когда мы будем иметь соотношение военных потенциалов 2,5:2 в нашу пользу, то тогда мы можем чувствовать себя в полной безопасности.

– То есть можно говорить о приближении "Карибского кризиса 2.0"?

– Да, только это будет "Карибский кризис 3.0". Почему я перескакиваю? Первый был в октябре 1962 года. А "Карибский кризис 2.0" уже создан в небе трех государств Балтии с 2004 года, когда там появились самолеты двойного назначения – носители ядерного оружия США.

К сожалению, многие наши политологи вообще не знают об этой операции, впервые о ней слышат или переводят с английского Baltic Air Policing как "Балтийская полицейская операция" ВВС.

Но боевые самолеты не могут выполнять полицейские функции. Их функция – патрулирование. Причем опасное – круглосуточное и круглогодичное. Вблизи российских границ.

Вот почему я называю такое американское ракетно-ядерное наращивание "Карибским кризисом 2.0".

С учетом этого получится "Карибский кризис 3.0". Карибский кризис номер один мы преодолели, а вот на "Балтийское воздушное патрулирование НАТО", или "Карибский кризис 2.0", мы очень слабо реагируем. И в академическом плане среди специалистов, и в официальном плане.

Надо было сразу же поставить вопрос, когда эта операция была введена в действие в марте 2004 года. Смотрите, сколько лет она уже существует. Туда доставляются все новые самолеты носители ядерного оружия, вскоре в Европе появится новое тактическое ядерное оружие в виде B-61-12.

– Первый Карибский кризис удалось разрешить дипломатическим путем. Каким может быть исход "третьего Карибского кризиса"?

– Да, удалось разрешить благодаря жесткости тогдашнего советского руководства, я имею в виду Никиту Сергеевича Хрущева. Тогда СССР имел соотношение по ядерному оружию относительно США один к семнадцати. Но мы заставили американцев убрать свои ракеты средней дальности класса "Юпитер" с территории Турции и Италии.

Но, к сожалению, впопыхах не договорились, чтобы в Италии и Турции вообще американское тактическое ядерное оружие в будущем никогда не появлялось. Оно потом появилось и до сих пор находится там. И 35-й президент США Джон Фицджеральд Кеннеди тоже проявил понимание, что подвешивать ядерный Дамоклов меч над головами друг друга – это тупиковый путь. Его исход – это тотальная ядерная война, обмен ядерными ударами.

Так что надо тоже поставить наших американских оппонентов и наших натовских визави в точно такое же положение, как они поставили нас с этой операцией ВВС НАТО "Балтийское воздушное патрулирование".

– То есть, поставив ракеты у границ США, мы сможем потребовать уйти НАТО в том числе из Прибалтики, заставить их отказаться от этой программы воздушного патрулирования?

– Нам не придется даже что-то требовать, доказывать или просить. Они сами предложат: "Вы убираете ядерное оружие от берегов США, а мы уберем от рубежей РФ". Сами попросят как можно быстрее заключить соответствующее соглашение.

Только так. Они другого пути не понимают. Они до сих пор считают нас Давидом, а себя считают Голиафом. Но времена, когда Россия была ослаблена, уже прошли. Россия стала ведущей мировой державой в военно-политическом смысле.

Беседовала Кристина Храмцова. Источник: Baltnews

 

"Кровавый комик" пошёл ва-банк. Запорожская АЭС на грани катастрофы

Владимир Зеленский посягнул на весь земной шар. Давлением на Запорожскую АЭС он рассчитывает удерживать в напряжении всю планету, считает Владимир Козин. Вскрылся план по "выкуриванию" русских военных со станции.
 
Президент Турции Реджеп Тайип Эрдоган в ходе своей поездки во Львов проведёт встречу с украинским коллегой Владимиром Зеленским и генсеком ООН Антониу Гутерришем, заметил в программе "Царьград. Главное" ведущий канала Никита Комаров.
 
Турецкие СМИ сообщают, что Эрдоган предложит главе Незалежной провести прямые переговоры с президентом России Владимиром Путиным и что наша сторона якобы делала соответствующие намёки.
 
«Верится в это с трудом. Я бы даже сказал, что подобное развитие событий абсолютно нереально, - отреагировал ведущий "Первого русского".»
 
А вот что реально будет обсуждаться, так это зерновая сделка и ситуация вокруг Запорожской АЭС, которая накаляется с каждым днём. Вооруженные формирования киевского режима продолжают обстрелы атомной электростанции, что может привести к техногенной катастрофе.

Никита Комаров обсудил эту угрозу с членом-корреспондентом Академии военных наук России, ведущим экспертом МГИМО Владимиром Козиным. Он объяснил мотивацию ВСУ: 
 
«Во-первых, они хотят держать в напряжении весь земной шар, особенно сопредельные государства. Во-вторых, выкурить ВС России, которые обеспечивают безопасность Запорожской АЭС. Зеленский рассчитывает завести туда, как предлагается в рамках западной концепции демилитаризованной зоны, украинские войска и формирования НАТО. И потом они смогут спокойно, без обстрелов продолжать разрушать атомную станцию и угрожать ядерной катастрофой всей планете».
 
 
Источник: Царьград
 
 

"Не по адресу". В. Козин о новых претензиях НАТО к России по РСМД

НАТО призвало Россию поддерживать "активный диалог" с США по договору о РСМД. Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik выразил мнение, что обстановка вокруг договора накаляется преднамеренно.

НАТО призывает Россию вести активный диалог с США по вопросу Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД), сообщается в заявлении Североатлантического совета.

"Члены альянса зафиксировали российскую ракетную систему, которая вызывает серьезное беспокойство. НАТО призывает Россию обратить внимание на это беспокойство, действуя основательно и прозрачно, а также принимать активное участие в техническом диалоге с США", – говорится в пресс-релизе на сайте НАТО.

"США действуют в соответствии со своими обязательствами по договору о РСМД и привержены тому, чтобы строго соблюдать их", – сообщается в заявлении.

Отмечается, что члены альянса приветствуют продолжение попыток США наладить взаимодействие с Россией в двусторонним и многостороннем форматах, включая Специальную контрольную комиссию, которая занимается разрешением вызывающих беспокойство вопросов о соблюдении Россией договора о РСМД.

Члены НАТО придерживаются единого мнения, что эффективный контроль вооружений остается существенным элементом стратегической стабильности и коллективной безопасности, поэтому члены альянса выступают за сохранение договора о РСМД, говорится в заявлении.

Президент России Владимир Путин в четверг на ежегодной пресс-конференции заявил, что США фактически вышли из договора о РСМД. При этом он напомнил, что Россия не выходила из основополагающих договоров, которые являлись краеугольным камнем международной безопасности, в том числе договоров по противоракетной обороне, в то время как США вышли из него в одностороннем порядке.

Профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik отметил, что не Россия, а именно США нарушают ДРСМД.

"Натовцы обращаются не по адресу. Это мы должны предъявлять к ним претензии по поводу того, что они нарушают этот договор. До настоящего момента американская сторона никоим образом не доказала, что Россия нарушает этот договор: не названы места проведения так называемых испытаний каких-то там ракет, не названы типы ракет, в общем, нет никаких данных. При этом после того, как в 2002 году США вышли из договора об ограничении систем ПРО, у американских военных началась "свистопляска" с проведением испытаний противоракетной системы глобального базирования, когда в качестве учебных ракет стали использоваться и используются сейчас все те ракеты, которые запрещены ДРСМД. Кроме того, в этом году американский конгресс принял специальное решение о разработке крылатой ракеты наземного базирования, запрещенной ДРСМД. И под это уже выделены деньги – 58 млн долларов", – сказал Владимир Козин.

И США сейчас, по мнению военного эксперта, пытаются "прикрыть" собственные нарушения.

"Есть конкретные признаки того, что, во-первых, США уже неоднократно нарушали ДРСМД, испытывая противоракетные системы, и, во-вторых, они нарушат этот договор путем создания крылатой ракеты средней дальности, которую, кстати, США вполне могут передать своим союзникам по НАТО. Кроме того, в конгрессе США появилась резолюция, в которой прописано, что американцы могут выйти из договора – либо полностью, либо частично. Так что резюме такое: американцы в последнее время специально накалили обстановку вокруг так называемых российских нарушений, чтобы, прежде всего, прикрыть свои собственные приготовления, замаскировать собственные нарушения данного договорного акта", – считает Владимир Козин.

Россия и США неоднократно обвиняли друг друга в разработке систем, нарушающих договор. США предлагали России "вернуться к соблюдению" договора, Россия отвергала обвинения и, в свою очередь, предлагала США соблюдать договор о РСМД.

В МИД РФ ранее заявляли, что в Москве серьезно озабочены использованием США неаргументированных данных по договору как предлога для кампании о возможных ответных мерах против России. Глава российского внешнеполитического ведомства Сергей Лавров отмечал, что российское руководство неоднократно подтверждало приверженность обязательствам по РСМД и "каких-либо нарушений с нашей стороны не было". Министр также подчеркивал, что у Москвы "имеются весьма серьезные вопросы к США по поводу некоторых "вольностей" с выполнением договора самими американцами.

Источник: РИА Новости

"Тень на плетень". В. Козин об обвинениях Пентагона в адрес РФ

В Пентагоне заявили, что предложения главы Минобороны РФ Сергея Шойгу его американскому коллеге Джеймсу Мэттису не свидетельствуют о готовности России спасти договор РСМД.

Предложения, направленные на прошлой неделе министром обороны РФ Сергеем Шойгу его американскому коллеге Джеймсу Мэттису, не содержат признаков того, что Россия заинтересована в сохранении договора о ракетах средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД), заявили РИА Новости в Пентагоне.

В минувшую субботу официальный представитель Минобороны РФ генерал-майор Игорь Конашенков сообщил, что Сергей Шойгу предложил Джеймсу Мэттису обсудить разногласия по условиям соблюдения ДРСМД. Шойгу в обращении подчеркнул, что российская сторона готова к открытому и предметному диалогу с Пентагоном по всем актуальным проблемам совместной повестки.

"На протяжении более пяти лет, в ходе более 30 встреч на всех уровнях российского правительства и пяти совещаний экспертов Россия никогда не демонстрировала каких-либо признаков того, что она стремится вернуться к соблюдению (ДРСМД). Ни одна из этих встреч не принесла прогресса из-за нежелания России признавать свои нарушения, не говоря уже о возвращении к полному и проверяемому соблюдению (договора). Предложение России на прошлой неделе не содержит никаких указаний на то, что она заинтересована в принятии этих шагов по спасению договора РСМД", – сказал представитель пресс-службы Пентагона Эрик Пэйхон.

В начале декабря госсекретарь США Майк Помпео заявил, что у России есть два месяца на то, чтобы "вернуться к выполнению" ДРСМД. Он добавил, что если этого не произойдет, Вашингтон приостановит обязательства по ДРСМД. В свою очередь, заместитель госсекретаря США по контролю над вооружениями и международной безопасности Андреа Томпсон заявила, что США призывают Россию отказаться от ракеты 9М729 (SSC-8) или модифицировать систему, чтобы ее дальность, как заявляют в Вашингтоне, не нарушала положения ДРСМД.

Профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik прокомментировал ситуацию.

"До сих пор американцы не предоставили никому – ни нам, ни своим натовским союзникам, ни всему мировому сообществу – никаких доказательств того, что Россия вышла из этого договора. В то же самое время сами США уже десятки раз нарушали этот договор, сохранив часть подлежащих уничтожению ракет – или уничтожив, но произведя затем новые – которые они используют в качестве ракет-мишеней при испытании систем ПРО. Очередное такое испытание США провели 11 декабря в Тихом океане, когда была перехвачена, как они это обозначают, ракета "промежуточной дальности". Под промежуточной дальностью в данном случае они подразумевают дальность от 3 до 5,5 тысячи километров. А такие ракеты подпадают под действие договора РСМД", – отметил Владимир Козин.

По его мнению, отказ американских военных дать ответ на предложения министра обороны РФ ясно говорит об их намерениях.

"То, что американцы никак не ответили по существу, говорит о том, что они собираются на сей раз юридически выйти из этого соглашения (ДРСМД – ред.). Потому что фактически США вышли из него уже давно, в начале 2000-х, когда начали масштабные испытания систем ПРО с использованием в качестве мишеней ракет средней и меньшей дальности. И если у них – десятки нарушений, то у России – ноль, поэтому, говоря о том, что это мы якобы нарушаем договор, они просто "наводят тень на плетень"", – сказал Владимир Козин.

В последние годы Москва и Вашингтон регулярно обвиняют друг друга в нарушении договора о РСМД. Россия неоднократно заявляла, что строго соблюдает свои обязательства по договору. Министр иностранных дел РФ Сергей Лавров отмечал, что у Москвы есть весьма серьезные вопросы к США по поводу выполнения договора самими американцами. По словам Лаврова, обвинения США о нарушении Москвой ДРСМД голословны, ракета 9М729 была испытана на разрешенную договором дальность.

В частности, в Москве указывают, что Соединенные Штаты размещают на суше – на военной базе в Румынии, а также в Польше – установки, способные запускать ударные крылатые ракеты типа "Томагавк", что запрещено договором. Российская сторона также обращает внимание на то, что США разрабатывают ударные беспилотники, финансируют исследования по созданию крылатой ракеты наземного базирования.

Источник: РИА Новости

"Честному прятать нечего". В Козин о срыве полетов по ДОН из-за Грузии

Полеты по Договору об открытом небе (ДОН) могут сорваться из-за Грузии, которая не желает открывать воздушное пространство для наблюдателей. В эфире радио Sputnik военный эксперт Владимир Козин отметил, что Тбилиси, видимо, есть что скрывать.

Наблюдательные полеты по Договору об открытом небе находятся на грани срыва по вине Грузии, сообщил РИА Новости военно-дипломатический источник. По его словам, Тбилиси не желает открывать воздушное пространство для российских самолетов. Из-за этой позиции консультативная комиссия по открытому небу уже несколько месяцев не может принять проект решения.

Следующее заседание комиссии пройдет в Вене в январе.

В эфире радио Sputnik профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин высказал мнение, что Грузии, видимо, есть что скрывать.

"Грузия боится, что мы сможем увидеть незаявленную военную деятельность, определенные военные приготовления. Нежелание открывать воздушное пространство является грубейшим нарушением договора, поскольку Грузия является страной-участницей. Если она намерена и дальше закрывать полеты российских самолетов с инспекторскими группами, то она должна выйти из этого договора, потому что частичное изъятие деятельности запрещено. Если бы Грузия пыталась выстраивать отношения на добрососедской основе, то она не делала бы таких негативных шагов. Значит, у грузинского руководства настрой не совсем позитивный, иначе бы они строго выполняли все положения Договора по открытому небу. Как говорится, честному человеку прятать нечего, а грабитель всегда припрятывает оружие под полой. Все, что делается в плане сокрытия определенной военной деятельности, может вызывать только подозрения, в том числе и в искренности того государства, которое вводит ограничения по Договору об открытом небе", – сказал Владимир Козин.

Договор по открытому небу был подписан в Хельсинки 24 марта 1992 года представителями 23 государств – членов ОБСЕ. Россия ратифицировала договор в мае 2001 года. Участники договора могут совершать облеты территорий друг друга с целью контроля военной деятельности.

В сентябре издание The Wall Street Journal сообщало, что Вашингтон готовится ограничить полеты российских военных самолетов над США в рамках договора. В частности, решение может коснуться территории Аляски и Гавайев. По данным газеты, эта мера вызвана российским запретом на полеты над Калининградом.

В Кремле призвали США выдвигать любые претензии в строгом соответствии с договором.

На этой неделе стало известно, что с января Москва вводит ограничения для США по Договору об открытом небе. По словам военно-дипломатического источника, Россия закроет часть аэродромов для американских самолетов-наблюдателей. Этот шаг стал ответом на аналогичные действия Вашингтона.

Источник: РИА Новости

12 предложений КНР

24 февраля этого года МИД КНР распространил предложения "по урегулированию украинского кризиса" (прилагается ниже в переводе МИД КНР).

Документ, состоящий из 12 пунктов, содержит в целом взвешенные положения практического характера. Они представляются  более реалистическими, чем ранее озвученный президентом Зеленским "мирный план" политического урегулирования ситуации на Украине, которая вместе с Североатлантическим союзом сначала в 2014 году развязала агрессию против Донбасса, а затем в 2022 году и против России.

Вместе с тем, в китайском документе нет положения, которое осуждало бы масштабные поставки тяжелых видов вооружений для ВСУ со стороны стран-членов НАТО и ряда внеблоковых государств, а также требовало бы полного прекращения таких поставок. В денежном выражении они уже превысили 150 млрд. долларов, и их новые транши затягивают политическое урегулирование проблемы, созданной  Украиной и ее западными спонсорами, продлевают их прямую агрессию против России, а также создают опасный очаг напряженности в Европе.

В девятом пункте китайских предложений обращается внимание только на обеспечение вывоза «украинского зерна» по условиям известной четырехсторонней «Черноморской инициативы» от 22 июля 2022 года. Эта составная часть договоренности как раз выполняется. Но не реализуется вторая часть согласованного «пакета» договоренности, которая касается вывоза сельхозпродукции и удобрений из России. Москва не раз обращала внимание на это обстоятельство. Во время телефонного разговора президентов России и Турции, состоявшегося 24 февраля, вновь была подчёркнута необходимость добросовестного выполнения именно второй части «пакета», касающейся устранения препятствий для соответствующих поставок из России в наиболее нуждающиеся страны мира.

Автор: В.П. Козин, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России

 

 

Приложение

ПОЗИЦИЯ КИТАЯ ПО ПОЛИТИЧЕСКОМУ УРЕГУЛИРОВАНИЮ УКРАИНСКОГО КРИЗИСА

2023-02-24 09:00

1. Уважать суверенитет всех государств. Общепризнанное международное право, включая цели и принципы Устава ООН должны строго соблюдаться, суверенитет, независимость и территориальная целостность любого государства должны быть гарантированы. Все страны равны вне зависимости от их размера, мощи и экономического масштаба. Основополагающие нормы международных отношений должны отстаиваться всеми участниками в защиту международной справедливости. Международное право подлежит равному и универсальному применению без двойных стандартов.

2. Отбросить мышления холодной войны. Безопасность одного государства не может обеспечиваться за счет безопасности другого, а региональная безопасность не может быть достигнута путем усиления тем более расширения военных блоков. Резонные интересы и легитимные озабоченности в сфере безопасности всех стран должны восприниматься всерьез и урегулироваться надлежащим образом. Сложные проблемы не решаются простыми способами. Следует придерживаться концепции общей, комплексной, совместной и устойчивой безопасности, с учетом долгосрочного мира на планете способствовать формированию сбалансированной, эффективной, устойчивой архитектуры европейской безопасности. Не допускаются попытки обеспечивать собственную безопасность в ущерб безопасности других стран, а также политика блоковой конфронтации, следует общими усилиями поддержать мир и стабильность на евразийском континенте.

3. Прекратить военные конфликты. В войнах не бывает победителей. Вместо того чтобы подливать масло в огонь и накачивать противостояние, все стороны должны проявлять благоразумие и сдержанность во избежание дальнейшей эскалации и выхода из-под контроля ситуации вокруг Украины. Важно поддерживать встречные шаги Москвы и Киева в пользу скорейшего восстановления прямого диалога, постепенного снижения напряженности ситуации и полного прекращения военных действий.  

4. Запустить мирные переговоры. Диалог и переговоры – единственный выход из украинского кризиса. Все усилия, нацеленные на мирное урегулирование кризиса, заслуживают одобрения и поддержки. Международное сообщество должно придерживаться верного направления в пользу примирения, проложить путь к запуску политического урегулирования, создать условия для возобновления переговоров и предложить соответствующие площадки. Китайская сторона готова играть для этого конструктивную роль.

5. Ликвидировать гуманитарный кризис. Важно приветствовать и поддерживать всякие шаги, которые позволяют облегчить напряженную гуманитарную ситуацию. В гуманитарных акциях необходимо соблюдать принцип нейтралитета и беспристрастности без политизации гуманитарного вопроса. Нужно действенными мерами обеспечивать безопасность мирного населения, открывать гуманитарные коридоры для эвакуации людей из зоны конфликта. Следует наращивать гуманитарную помощь пострадавшим районам, улучшать гуманитарное положение на месте, обеспечивать быстрый, безопасный и беспрепятственный гуманитарный доступ для предотвращения дальнейшего ухудшения ситуации. Необходимо поддерживать координирующую роль ООН в осуществлении гуманитарной акции в зоне конфликта.

6. Защитить мирное население и пленных. Участники конфликта должны строго соблюдать международное гуманитарное право и воздержаться от нанесения ударов по мирному населению и гражданским объектам. Нужно защищать женщин, детей и других пострадавших от конфликта, уважать элементарные права пленных. Китайская сторона выступает за обмен пленными между Россией и Украиной, и призывает все стороны создать для этого больше благоприятных условий.

7. Обеспечить безопасность атомных электростанций. Не допускается совершение вооруженной атаки на АЭС и другие мирные атомные объекты. Призываем к соблюдению международного права, включая Конвенции о ядерной безопасности. Категорически не допускается техногенная ядерная катастрофа. Поддерживаем конструктивную роль МАГАТЭ в содействии ядерной безопасности и физической сохранности мирных атомных объектов. 

8. Снизить стратегический риск. Применение ядерного оружия не допускается, ядерную войну развязывать нельзя. Необходимо противодействовать попыткам использования ядерного оружия или угрозы его применением. Недопустимо распространение ядерного оружия и возникновение ядерного кризиса. Категорически не допускается разработка и применение биологического и химического оружия какой бы то ни было страной при каких бы то ни было обстоятельствах.

9. Обеспечить вывоз зерна. «Черноморская инициатива» по вывозу украинского зерна, подписанная Россией, Турцией и Украиной при заверении ООН подлежит сбалансированному, полному и эффективному выполнению при выявлении ключевой роли ООН. Выдвинутая Китаем Инициатива по международному сотрудничеству в области продовольственной безопасности служит реализуемым вариантом для преодоления глобального продовольственного кризиса.

10. Отменить односторонние санкции. Односторонние санкции и усиление давления не только являются контрпродуктивными, но и создают все новые проблемы. Не допустим любых несанкционированных Советом Безопасности ООН односторонних ограничительных мер. Отдельные страны должны прекратить злоупотребление односторонними санкциями и экстерриториальное применение юрисдикции против других стран, оказывать позитивное влияние на смягчение напряженности украинского кризиса, и создавать предпосылки для развития экономики и повышения благосостояния населения в развивающихся странах.

11. Обеспечить устойчивость цепочек производства и поставок. Следует практическими действиями защищать действующую мировую экономическую систему, выступать против попыток политизировать мировую экономику, а также ее применять в качестве инструмента и оружия. С целью не допустить ущерба восстановлению глобальной экономики нужно сообща нейтрализовать негативные последствия кризиса, в частности для международного сотрудничества в области энергетики, финансов, торговли зернами и логистики.

12. Содействовать восстановлению после конфликта. Международное сообщество должно предпринимать меры для поддержки мирного восстановления в зоне конфликта. Китайская сторона готова оказывать помощь и играть свою конструктивную роль.

 

13 нерешённых проблем в сфере контроля над вооружениями между Россией и США

 

("13 unresolved issues in arms control between Russia and the USA")

Лекция ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козина, подготовленная для Массачусетского технологического института, США (МТИ).

6 октября 2020г.

50 оттенков красного

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “Специальный репортаж” на телеканале “Звезда”.

Какую роль играет Украина в планах Вашингтона? И ради какой высшей цели Владимир Зеленский напугал жителей Украины?

Международный центр стратегической разведки объявил на Украине «красный» уровень опасности. А это значит, что боестолкновения могут начаться в течение ближайших двух недель. Почему названы именно эти даты? 

Эфир от 25 января 2022г.

Источник: телеканал “Звезда”

70 лет назад в СССР испытали атомную бомбу: как создавался ядерный щит

 

Ведущий эксперт центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин в программе новостей канала «МИР 24».

В СССР 70 лет назад испытали атомную бомбу. О том, как создавался ядерный щит страны – корреспондент «МИР 24» Анна Бажайкина.

Семипалатинский полигон в Казахстане – эта земля пережила почти 500 атомных взрывов. Для испытаний его закрыли почти 30 лет назад. Но уровень радиации замеряют и сегодня. Местами фонит. Здесь испытали первую советскую атомную бомбу РДС-1.

Разделить ядро пытались еще в 30-ых. В начале Великой Отечественной научные институты прекратили работу. Однако осенью 41-го разведка донесла: США и Великобритания вовсю изучают атомную энергию и как ее использовать в военных целях. Советские ученые тут же возобновили работу. Руководить исследованиями назначили Игоря Курчатова. В итоге у них получилось.

«Бомба, которая была испытана – 22 килотонны. Это примерно столько же, сколько американская атомная бомба, которую сбросили на Нагасаки», – отметил член корреспондент академии военных наук, член-корреспондент РАЕН, ведущий эксперт центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин.

Разработку советских ученых назвали РДС-1. Официально: реактивный двигатель специальный. В кулуарах называли: Родина дарит Сталину. Под полигон нашли равнину диаметром 20 километров в 170 километрах от Семипалатинска. Готовить его начали за два года. Строили здания, расставляли технику и загоны для животных. Чтобы детально изучить разрушительную силу атомного взрыва. И вот 29 августа 1949 года.

Небо над полигоном озарило ровно в семь утра. Бомбу подорвали на высоте 30 метров. Ударная волна смела все на своем пути. Земля дрожала даже в сотнях километров от полигона. Через 20 минут к месту взрыва отправили два танка со свинцовой защитой. С помощью них увидели – все постройки разрушены. На месте башни осталась огромная воронка.

«Это в дальнейшем привело к тому, что появился договор о нераспространении ядерного оружия, о запрещении испытаний ядерного оружия в трех средах», – сказал Владимир Козин.

Через два года после первого испытания в закрытом городе Арзамас-16 началось серийное производство атомной бомбы РДС-1. Они условно стали ядерным щитом страны, а США потеряли монополию на ядерное оружие.

Источник: «МИР 24»

900 Nazis Surrender in Mariupol - USA sending $Billions more to Ukraine

Vladimir Kozin gave an interview to the Regis TV show (USA) on the issue of the military and political implications of 900 plus militants who surrendered at the Azovstal Steel Mill in Mariupol.

A 30-days truce will not be observed by Kiev

 

May 10, 2025

Will Kiev honor a 30-days truce that Ukrainian bosses and a limited number of European leaders are advocating?

No, not at all. It is Utopia. For several reasons. There are examples of gross violations of the previous ceasefire proposals only in the current year.

  1. ‘The energy truce’ initiated by President Donald Trump last March has been violated by Ukraine 136 times. Russia has not violated it at all. Such a ceasefire lasted for 30 days. See: Report # 341 released on March 25.
  2. ‘The Easter truce’ proposed by President Vladimir Putin due to Eater celebrations April 20-21. Ukraine torpedoed it 4,900 times. Russia has observed it, and reacted in response to initial Ukrainian attacks only. See: Report # 345 released on April 20.
  3.  ‘The V-Day truce‘ – the latest ceasefire initiative proposed by Moscow has lasted during May 8-10 due to V-Day celebrations.

During this latest truce Russia has recorded 9,318 ceasefire violations by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), according to the Russian MoD. Ukrainian troops carried out 2,669 attacks on Russian units’ positions by using cannon artillery, tank guns and mortars, as well as 46 MRLS. In addition, 6,562 strikes and HE ammunitions drops from UAVs were carried out. AFU also tried to intrude into adjacent Kursk and Belgorod Regions four times. A reminder: by March 2025 AFU has lost 76,000 as KIA and WIA in Kursk Region alone.


A total of 9,318 Ukrainian violations during the V-Day truce were recorded


On the eve of such truce illegal ex-president president Vladimir Zelensky has twice threatened to attack nearly 30 foreign VIPs that wished to attend the Military Parade arranged near the Kremlin Palace on May 9, 2025.

So, why the leaders France, Germany, Poland and the UK are insisting on a new one month-long truce between Ukraine and Russia? Do not they see that Kiev has de facto violated all these ceasefire proposals listed earlier? Miscalculation.

The answer is: they would like to encourage Ukraine to continue such a large-scale aggression in the heart of Europe. Even during this new 30-days truce they expressed their intention to supply AFU with a new quantity of lethal weapons.

No, doubt:  Vladimir Zelensky will disrupt all kind of ceasefires – no matter on what occasions they would be proclaimed. History records vividly testify that.


These leaders cannot simply realize: Kiev will not be able to defeat the Russian Federation. 

The longer the Ukrainian aggression backed by the EU and NATO is continued, the less and less benefits Kiev would gain from its adventure leading it to a total disaster and would go on to plunder already strangled European economies.

Instead of making empty ballyhoo, a handful of European chieftains should persuade Ukraine to be sober and relevant, and think seriously about its fatal consequences


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

A Russian & An American On Ukraine - America's Goal: Regime Change in Russia

 

 

 

Dr. Vladimir Kozin and Scott Ritter, two experts, share their views on the war in Ukraine entering the "final phase"; explain who are Wagner Group and Tsar's Wolves; Zelinsky's threats to strike Crimea; and nuclear gaslighting. Scott presented the historical account of America's goal since the 1990's to make sure Russia would never be a threat to the US hegemony. He explains that America's goal has been regime change in Russia every since 2000 when VV Putin was elected president. The purpose of the war in Ukraine, the false narrative, threats, and the billions of dollars and equipment is to weaken the will of Russians to outs Putin and not to win the war.

Actions against the skripals AND Navalny: they are related not to “Novichok”, but rather to “Freshman”

 

Persistent references made by German leadership and other Western politicians in connection with the "poisoning of Alexei Navalny" by a certain combat chemical agent "Novichok" to the unsubstantiated conclusions of closed laboratories serving the armed forces and intelligence services of several NATO member states are not incidental.

The fact is that these organizations are now in their second year actively working on a new type of chemical warfare agent, the development of which began after the data on the research activity in this area came into the hands of Western experts. It is also important to note here that such substances are not produced in Russia at all. And Alexey Navalny himself could not survive if he was poisoned by some dangerous chemical warfare agent. He has not even had any signs of such “poisoning”. He was discharged from Omsk hospital without any signs of such poisoning. This was demonstrated by about 60 different tests and biological check-ups conducted at this medical facility.

Fraudulent British military and "MI-6" claims of case of poisoning of the Skripals’ father and daughter in the United Kingdom allowed to bring out of the shadow the theme of chemical compounds of the most dangerous class of allegedly "Novichok" chemical agent which does not exist in reality.

Such term was intentionally thrown in mass media by opponents of Russia with reference to the Soviet chemical “expert” Vil Mirzayanov who emigrated to the USA in political and informational field of Western countries. This term was specially spread in the West – initially in London – deliberately in Russian language in order to make Moscow "responsible" for creation and use of some chemical agents under such a specific name even linguistically, i.e. in connection with the Russian word "novichok", and also to teach the rest of the world to believe in such groundless accusation.

Most likely, the named military and special services have their own variant of the verbal name of a certain military grade poison in English, in addition to its obviously complex chemical formula or classified alphanumeric designation – for example, in the form of slang word "freshman", which just means in Russian "new pupil in the classroom or newcomer at school", as well as "a first-year student".

Thus, the achievements of NATO laboratories in this field were legalized – in this case under the pretext of the need to protect against another type of "Russian aggression", this time versus “chemical aggression”.

At the same time, research has begun in NATO countries aimed at ensuring the leading positions of the Western military alliance in the field of military chemistry. And the USA and EU sold the creation of the so-called "attributive mechanism of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons", the main purpose of which is to impose various types of trade, economic and financial sanctions against those countries where it is possible to conduct any kind of research not controlled by the West.

The Russian side believes that there are too many inconsistencies in the case of alleged “poisoning” of Alexei Navalny.

Recently the Permanent Mission of Russia to the European Union pointed out to representatives of this structure the key flaws in the version about his “poisoning”. And the first issue is related to the permission of the respective authorities to transport Alexey Navalny to Germany, where, if he was actually poisoned, could identify dangerous substances in his body. The Russian Permanent Mission also specified that the Russian authorities should not have resorted to poisoning this man, because according to the polls his rating does not exceed two percent.

It was pointed out that Alexey Navalny's companions hurriedly flew to Germany without giving evidence to Russian law-enforcement agencies. Attention was drawn to the way the bottle of water from which he was drinking and in which the poisonous substance was supposedly contained appeared in Germany. Why in Germany? Questions were asked: why did the German “Charite” clinic undertook enhanced security measures before detecting Navalny's "poisoning"; why the FRG still has not provided Russia with the results of the analyses of his “poisoning”; why the West was unwilling to acknowledge the fact that NATO countries are still developing poisonous warfare agents; why the German medics have avoided professional contact with Russian colleagues in that case; and how it can be understood that no military or civilian German toxicologist or doctor at the “Charite” clinic has ever been able to identify the problem. The Russian side also noted that all references to the impossibility to disclose the patient's medical history do not coincide with those political statements made during the stay of Alexey Navalny in an artificial coma in Germany.

Russia has no reason to launch an investigation into what happened to opposition activist Alexei Navalny until it has received data from Germany. Vasily Nebenzia, Russia’s permanent representative to this organization, stated this at a UN Security Council meeting. "Even a freshman of law school knows that any investigation must be preceded by evidence and facts based on the evidence available to us, otherwise our law enforcement agencies have no reason to launch an investigation," he said, adding that Russian doctors, who, by the way, initially saved Alexei Navalny, did not find any chemical substances during his medical tests.

The story with him is designed to formalize the next stage in the legal field: at the end of last year, experts from the secret laboratory of the German Bundeswehr in Berlin, the British secret chemical and biological laboratory in Porton Down known as Ministry of Defence’s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, the Americans at Harvard University and the Czechs at the Faculty of Military Medicine of the Academy of the Czech Ministry of Defense in Hradec Kralove came to the same conclusions almost synchronously and independently of each other in terms of their combat properties, “Freshman” class agents are as lethal as the long-known "classic" sarin, soman or VX agents. And it is designed for battlefield and reputedly kills instantly.

But any lethal outcome due to the use of such "Freshman" agents can be delayed. Toxic effects on the respiratory, circulatory and peripheral nervous systems look like symptoms of asphyxiation or heart failure. In conditions of lack of time, or when it is impossible to conduct laboratory analysis of samples taken from victims of "Freshman" chemical agents, conventional methods of diagnosis do not guarantee the detection of the fact that the cause of death or severe poisoning was the result of employment of a warfare agent. Thus, a potential victim of nerve agent’s aggression may not receive adequate and timely medical care.

Findings made by experts from NATO countries on the symptoms found in Alexei Navalny indicate that they are conducting dangerous research in this class of highly toxic compounds. This means that these labs are producing these formulations and studying their combat properties, unfortunately for individuals whose names are, to some extent, known to the general public. They make such people as "victims for slaughter".

In fact, the world faced a purposeful disinformation campaign of the West, first of all the USA and the United Kingdom, covering up the legalization of their developments of deadly new generation of chemical warfare agents as well as sacrificing their “hard-working friends” to achieve destructive and provocative goals with deeper consequences in the international arena.

In fact, this is not just targeted poisoning of people, but also poisoning of the entire political and other atmosphere in the world at large with dangerous outcome.

By Vladimir Kozin

 

>>You can read the russian version of the article by clicking on the link<<

Afghanistan at Crossroads: Promise of Peace and Geopolitical Imperatives

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Доклад международных экспертов о положении в Афганистане и прогнозах развития там обстановки после вывода войск США с его территории. Приложенный доклад составлен на основе вебинара на тему "Афганистан на перепутье: перспективы мира и геополитический императив". Мероприятие было проведено под эгидой Пакистанского университета по науке и технике 2 июня с.г.  В вебинаре принял участие член-корреспондент РАВН В.П. Козин.

All children must live with their parents and relatives. The issue has not been fully resolved yet due to Ukrainian aggression

May 12, 2025

 

Due to direct and unprovoked Ukrainian military aggression against the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics that has been unleashed unilaterally of the neo-Nazi regime in Kiev since April 14, 2014, a number of children from both sides (Ukraine and Russia) have found their asylum in these two countries, especially in cases when their biological parents and other direct relatives have been killed or lost during military operations. The second wave of the Ukrainian aggression against Donbass began on February 17, 2022. It also added a lot of problems to children who lost their parents.

Unfortunately, information about the work of the Russian Federation and “The Presidential Commissioner for Children's Rights on the rescue and protection of children's rights” is presented by foreign mass media and politicians in a distorted way: Russia assumes that in some cases it has been done intentionally, and in some cases – out of ignorance of the situation or due to lack of mere professionalism.


Russia carries out this activity aimed at returning children to Russia and Ukraine in cooperation with the International Committee of the Red Cross, the State of Qatar, and the Vatican (the Holy See).


 

Any person who does not possess a reliable information should not disseminate false information on that matter

All children who came to Russia due to Ukrainian aggression that is still goes on, are fully registered by the state authorities. There a strict obligation to return to Ukraine all those children who have direct parents or direct relatives in Ukraine. By April 2025 Russia has returned to Ukraine more than 100 children who have rejoined their families.

In June 2023 Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that about 300 Ukrainian children who lost their parents were placed in Russian families, but not via an adoption, but on the basis of temporary, pre-guardianship, or temporary guardianship [ https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6076214]. The Russian side claims that the transfer of Ukrainian children to the territory of Russia from the theater of military operations was for security reasons and in accordance with the international law, therefore it falls under the concept of humanitarian evacuation of children where military hostilities are underway.

Ukraine is conducting a mandatory evacuation, without the right to choose the side of the nomination, although, according to the available information, a number of families having children would like to settle at the territory of Russia. Ukraine conceals the names of children they have detained and other important information about their biological parents and direct relatives. More than 500 children have been removed illegally from Donbass, 170 have been sent to the Netherlands, 159 to Turkey, more than 100 to Germany and 43 to Lithuania.

Ukraine creates various legal and other obstacles thus preventing to return trapped or kidnapped children to four republics/regions that later have joined Russia in September 2023, namely Donetsk, and Lugansk People’s Republics, and Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions (Oblasts in original).

In the Document attached below, a reader can find a detailed information on the issue: “Activities of the Russian Federation Presidential Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova to protect children during a Special Military Operation”. Issue № 3. June 19, 2024 [Document-0-308-src-1718870725.6647.pdf; in English]. Link: https://deti.gov.ru/uploads/magic/ru-RU/Document-0-308-src-1718870725.6647.pdf. Or the version in Russian: https://deti.gov.ru/Deyatelnost/documents/307.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

An overview of the INF Treaty

 

>>Part II. US grievances against Russia<<

>>Part III. Russia’s stance on the future of the INF treaty<<

Will the INF Treaty Be Kept Beyond Its 30th Anniversary?

Thirty years ago, on Dec. 8, 1987, the leaders of the USSR and the US – Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan – signed a treaty to eliminate intermediate- and shorter-range missiles (the INF Treaty).

While it was being actively implemented, 1,846 Soviet and 846 American nuclear-armed, land-based, ballistic and cruise missiles with a range between 500 and 5,500 kilometers were destroyed.

After completely eliminating these missiles by the summer of 1991, both sides were satisfied that they had been able to fulfill all the provisions of this important bilateral agreement.

But beginning in June 2012, the administrations of Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump have become increasingly more insistent that Russia is violating this treaty.

Is this criticism justified?

Or is the very United States violating this treaty?

And if so, in what ways?

***

In December 1979, NATO adopted what was known as its Double-Track Decision. That alliance began preparations for a Western-European deployment of Pershing II ballistic missiles and Tomahawk ground-launched cruise missiles that were in their final stages of development, while simultaneously offering to begin negotiating with the Soviet Union on intermediate- and shorter-range nuclear forces. On Nov. 18, 1981, the United States declared its readiness to cancel the deployment of its Pershing II and Tomahawk missiles, if the Soviet Union would dismantle all its intermediate-range missiles in both the European and Asian parts of that country. But this would effectively mean a unilateral disarmament for the Soviets, since for every two Soviet SS-20 (RSD-10) missiles being deployed, the USSR would be retiring three SS-4 (R-12) and SS-5 (R-14) missiles.

And so Moscow turned down this proposal, but it initiated negotiations to dramatically reduce or to even completely discontinue all types of intermediate-range nuclear weapons (including the aircraft that carry them) and to suspend any updates on them while the negotiations were underway.

However, the United States declined that offer and in late 1983 began deploying new nuclear missiles in Europe, where the countries of the alliance already had 857 nuclear carriers in place, including 651 aircraft belonging to the US (the F-111, F-111A, and F-4, plus its carrier-based aircraft stationed along the borders of the European continent), as well as 64 ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads from the United Kingdom and 98 nuclear missiles and 44 bombers belonging to France, all of which could together carry more than 400 nuclear warheads.

At that time the Soviet Union only owned 938 examples of such weaponry. If the NATO nations stationed another 572 nuclear missiles on the European continent, at that point the arsenals of the alliance’s nuclear powers would be 50% larger than those of the Warsaw Treaty countries. Thus, the approximate parity in the two sides’ nuclear missiles would be substantially tilted in favor of the trans-Atlantic military alliance.

Consequently the Soviet Union called a halt to the negotiations that had already begun.

A new stage began when Mikhail Gorbachev reopened those talks upon being elected to lead the USSR. He was a proponent of measures to encourage global nuclear disarmament and in 1986 put forth a step-by-step plan to create a nuclear-free world.

The first round of negotiations on strategic nuclear weapons and intermediate-range nuclear missiles began in Geneva on March 12, 1985, but no specific agreements were reached.

The next round of negotiations was held in  Reykjavik (Iceland) in September of 1986. There the USSR announced that it was prepared to sign a separate agreement on intermediate-range missiles, under which Soviet and American missiles of this class would be removed from Europe within five years, with only 100 warheads mounted on such missiles to be retained in the Asian part of the USSR and in the US. At the same time, it was proposed that the USSR and the US agree to keep equal numbers of short-range tactical missiles, provided that neither side would deploy such missiles in Europe. Moscow also agreed “not to count” the nuclear weapons belonging to Great Britain and France. A decision on intermediate-range air carriers was postponed.

And so on Dec. 8, 1987, Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan signed the open-ended Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles. The two leaders exchanged not only the paper copies of the treaty itself, but also the pens with which they signed it. At the same time, two protocols were also signed (the Protocol on Procedures Governing the Elimination of the Missile Systems and the Inspection Protocol), in addition to the Memorandum of Understanding Regarding the Establishment of the Data Base for the Treaty.

During the negotiations that preceded the agreement, the Soviets were operating on the assumption that the Pershing II ballistic missiles were equipped with variable-yield, earth-penetrating warheads and high-precision guidance systems. This was a new innovation not previously seen on ballistic missiles of this type. The Tomahawk cruise missiles boasted improved guidance accuracy and were a difficult target for anti-aircraft defenses.

All this, along with the short flight times (8-10 minutes) of the American nuclear missiles deployed in Europe, posed a threat to Soviet central command posts, fixed intercontinental ballistic-missile launch sites, and other elements of the Soviet nuclear infrastructure inside the European part of the USSR. Moreover, Soviet intermediate-range nuclear missiles were not capable of reaching the US from their launch sites on the European continent, while their American counterparts could potentially land deep inside Soviet territory.

As recalled by the Special Advisor to the President and Secretary of State on Arms Control, Paul Nitze, Republican President Ronald Reagan was primarily motivated to sign the INF Treaty based on his fear of the serious threat posed to American and NATO installations in Europe and Asia by the Soviet SS-20 (RSD-10) missile, which had extended range capability and could accommodate up to three warheads each. [Department of State Bulletin. 1988. February. Vol. 88. Number 2131. p. 81.]

The Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles took effect on June 1, 1988, after being ratified by both parties and upon the exchange of instruments of ratification.

The Gorbachev-Reagan Treaty did not apply to sea-based or air-launched missiles, nor did it stipulate the destruction of the missiles’ nuclear warheads.

In addition to the physical destruction of the missiles of the two classes mentioned above, the two sides pledged to eliminate, no later than three years after the treaty took effect, the launchers and launch canisters, launch facilities and auxiliary equipment, missile vehicles and simulators, launch pads, and other equipment stationed at 43 sites in Russia, 66 sites in other Soviet republics (Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine) and in two of its Warsaw Treaty allies: at six sites in East Germany and one in Czechoslovakia, as well as at 32 sites in the US and in five Western European countries (Washington’s NATO allies of Belgium, Britain, Italy, the Netherlands, and West Germany).

It should be noted that in 1984, three countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Great Britain, the US, and France) combined owned 50% more nuclear warheads on intermediate-range missiles and aircraft as did the USSR.
As a result of the INF Treaty , by May 28, 1991, 2,692 intermediate- and shorter-range missiles were destroyed: the Soviet Union destroyed 1,846, and the US – 846.

At that time, this arsenal represented only 4% of the world’s stockpiles of nuclear weapons.

Article VI of the treaty banned both the future production and flight-testing of any intermediate-range or shorter-range missiles, as well as the production of any stages or launchers of such missiles.

The INF Treaty made provision for a meticulous regime of verification. Each side had the right to conduct on-site inspections, both within the territory of the other country, as well as within the territories of the countries where the missiles targeted for destruction were currently deployed, and they were also permitted to use national technical means of verification. In order to conduct inspections within the territories of America’s NATO allies, on Dec. 11, 1987, Washington signed corresponding agreements with Belgium, Great Britain, Italy, the Netherlands, and West Germany.

Over the course of 13 years of work, the two sides’ inspection teams conducted approximately 1,200 inspections of various types both inside each other’s countries, as well as in other states. On May 21, 2001, an agreement was signed in Moscow marking the completion of the regime of inspections under the INF Treaty. By mutual agreement, all inspections officially ended at midnight on May 31, 2001.The INF Treaty was the first international treaty to formalize the complete and irreversible destruction of two classes of nuclear-armed missiles.

In October 2007, Russia proposed an initiative to add a global dimension to the provisions of the INF Treaty – suggesting, in other words, that that bilateral agreement be transformed into a multilateral treaty. It is a fact that such types of weaponized missiles are owned by a large number of states – as many as 32, according to American researchers. [Brad Hicks, George Galdorisi, and Scott Truver. The Aegis BMD Global Enterprise// Naval War College Review. 2012. Summer. pp.67-68].

At the UN Conference on Disarmament in February 2008, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov introduced a document, titled “The Basic Elements of an International Legal Agreement to Eliminate Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range (Ground-Based) Missiles, Opened For Broad International Accession” which could serve as a prototype for a future multilateral agreement. But the United States, which had initially backed this idea, quickly dropped its support. It was also rejected by Washington’s nuclear allies: Great Britain and France.

Although the 1987 treaty is termless, the parties have the right to withdraw from it, six months after giving such notice, if they decide that extraordinary events related to the subject matter of the treaty have “jeopardized their supreme interests.”

But if the INF Treaty is beneficial for both sides, wouldn’t it be quite natural for both Russia and the US to scrupulously comply with all of its provisions?

To be continued…

Written by Vladimir KozinSource: OrientalReview

Artyomovsk Cut Off - Russian War Blogger Assassinated

Dr. Vladimir Kozin joins Regis Tremblay  to discuss today's report that Wagner has cut off Artyomovsk/Bakhmut from resupplies, reinforcements, and retreat. The Russian forces have all of the transportation corridors blocked. 70% of the city has been captured with the remaining Ukrainian forces occupying the far western part of the city.

In another top story, a Russia war blogger was assassinated buy an improvised explosive device in a café in St Petersburg yesterday. Russian security services blame it on Kiev.

 

Avoiding nuclear Armageddon

 

© Vladimir Kozin, 2020

Member of the Russian Academy of the Natural Sciences and a Member of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences;

Member, Scientific Council, Russian National Research Institute for Global Security;

 Member, Expert Group, Foreign Relations Committee, Russian Senate

 Lead Adviser, Center for Military and Political Studies, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO)

 

Remarks at the International Video Conference. May, 2020

 

 

THE NUCLEAR NATIONS MUST START MEANINGFUL DIALOGUE ON CURBING NUCLEAR ARMS RACE AND ELIMINATE NUCLEAR ARSENALS BY 2045

 

I. General assessment of the level of nuclear confrontation and the situation in the nuclear arms control sphere

The overall assessment of the developments in these two interwoven domains is rather negative:

  •  the level of nuclear confrontation during last several years has sharply increased;
  •  the process in the nuclear arms control area has actually stalled, being characterized by unilateral withdrawal of the USA from the bilateral INF Treaty with Russia and the multilateral Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Plan known as the Iranian Nuclear Deal, a clear-cut statement of the USA not to ratify the multilateral Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, and Washington’s intention to resume nuclear testing at Nevada desert and to install two types of low-yield nuclear weapons on strategic offensive arms delivery systems.

The present-day nuclear arms control process may be described by the following features:

1) retaining of nuclear strategy of the first-use or the first-strike of nuclear weapons by many nuclear nations;  2) watering down the functional features between offensive and defensive nuclear arms;  3) lowering down the threshold of using of nuclear weapons – both strategic and tactical, including the low-yield nuclear warheads;  4) seeking nuclear arms supremacy over other nuclear nations;  5) substantial increase in nuclear arms spending, including the percentage of spending on nuclear weapons in relation to overall military budgets;  6) wrong interpretation of the “strategic stability” terminology in the nuclear arms sphere;  7) neglecting the principle of equality and equal security in nuclear arms control;  8) lack of joint approach of the P-5 nations or the de jure nuclear powers towards nuclear arms control steps, and all nine nuclear-weapon states – both de jure and de facto – have assumed a negative stance on the existing Nuclear Weapons Prohibition Treaty. As of April 6, 2020, only 81 states have signed the Treaty and 36 have ratified it. But that is not enough, because it will enter into force if totally 50 countries will ratify it.

If such eight features are not reconsidered and still remain in force, the sound, practical, constructive and mutually beneficial nuclear arms control process will be impossible to attain for many years to come.

No doubt that the nuclear arms race that the world community has inherited from the last century, will be complemented by two new arms races, namely in missile defense and in outer space.

 

II. The situation is complicated by the fact that there are 13 unresolved issues in arms control between the USA and Russia:

1) U.S. negative stance on the New START extension for the next five years; 2) U.S. still has positive view to Tactical Nuclear Weapons’ Employment still stored outside the continental USA for nearly 70 years;  3) U.S. desire to deploy the new INF-related nuclear missiles in Europe and Asia; 4) U.S. intention to use a low-yield nuclear weapons having the yield of less than 5 kiloton;  5) U.S. use of Heavy Strategic Bombers near Russia, the People’s Republic of China, Iran and North Korea in the framework of the frequent air-patrol missions;  6) U.S./NATO Operation “Baltic Air Policing” conducted 24h/365 days over three Baltic nations (Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia), plus Poland involving Dual Capable Aircraft from all three Western nuclear nations;  7) retaining by the USA the First-Nuclear-Strike or First-Nuclear-Use clause, as well other directives such as “launch-on-warning”, “launch-prior-to-launch”, “escalation to de-escalation” reflected in the 2018 U.S. Nuclear Posture Review, and plus existing “nuclear sharing agreements” between the USA and many NATO countries;  8) U.S. refusal to proliferate the INCSEA or Incidents-At-Sea-Prevention-Agreements to SSBN/SSN sailing under water near Russian territory – with the aim to avoid collisions between them;  (9)  U.S. lack of desire to show the Russian inspectors some U.S. strategic nuclear arms delivery systems fitted in words for non-nuclear missions; 10) U.S. unlimited missile defense interceptors versus Russian strategic nuclear arms;  11) the USA has BMDS sites in Europe and Asia fitted with MK-41 that can load nuclear-tipped Ground-launched Cruise Missiles and Hypersonic Vehicles; 12) no U.S. desire to accept a proposal on moratorium for the INF-related missile in Europe and Asia-Pacific Region; and finally, 13) U.S. refusal to repeat once more the famous Presidents Reagan-Gorbachev’s saying that: “Nuclear war cannot be fought, because it cannot be won.”

 

III. New U.S. Nuclear Strategy: short analysis

President Donald Trump’s new national nuclear strategy enacted named as the 2018 NPR or Nuclear Posture Review contained much more reason to use nuclear arms in a first strike. The vagueness of some provisions implying a clear freedom of action in the use of nuclear missile weapons, says about the irresponsible approach of the American Administration to its use – almost at any time, and anywhere in the world.

The military and political core of the new U.S. nuclear strategy is the possibility of the initiative use of nuclear weapons in the first strike against almost any state in the world, including those that will use against the United States even general-purpose forces involved in any, even on a small scale and with minimal consequences. The list of grounds for the use of nuclear weapons also includes an attack using conventional weapons against nuclear forces, their control facilities and missile warning systems of the United States and its allies.

The 2018 NPR differs from the 2010 NPR stamped by President Barack Obama: in all it has 14 reasons for using nuclear weapons, while the latter had six reasons.

The 2018 NPR mentioned the following grounds for using nuclear weapons: the emergence and build-up of nuclear and non-nuclear strategic threats, including the threat of chemical, biological and cyber weapons, as well as the significant use of strategic non-nuclear weapons. It was stated that nuclear weapons could be used in the event of a nuclear attack on the United States, its allies and partners and in case of occurrence of new enemies of the United States, changes in policies and doctrine of these enemies, create new alliances among the opponents and the further spread of nuclear weapons and even the technological surprises in other states. The possibility of using nuclear weapons was not ruled out in the event of damage to American nuclear forces. In the introductory part to the 2018 NPR there was also a wording that allows the American President to use nuclear weapons in the event of a change in the geopolitical situation.

All these postulates indicate the expansion of the range of circumstances and reasons that can cause the order of the U.S. President to use nuclear weapons in the first strike. In this context, it should be recalled that in 2018, for the first time in more than forty years, the American Congress drew attention to the real possibility of the President of the USA to issue his own and final order to use nuclear weapons against any state in the world without authorization from the supreme legislative body and without declaring war on such a state.

President Donald Trump ignored this decision of Congress, which believed that such an order can be brought by the head of state to the country’s nuclear missile forces within 3-5 minutes, which can actually use nuclear weapons in the next 4-12 minutes. During his election campaign ten former nuclear launch officers who once manned missile silos and held the keys to execute a launch order signed a letter saying Donald Trump should not “have his finger on the button” because of his temperament. 

The 2018 NPR clearly stated that Washington will not abandon the postulate of the use of nuclear weapons in the first strike and will not support proposals to lower the level of combat readiness of national nuclear forces, but will keep in force the agreement of the mid-90s reached with Russia according to its initiative on mutual de-targeting of strategic nuclear missiles on each other’s territory.

Donald Trump’s NPR calls for the use of NW in the event of multilateral potential risks and threats –  six grounds clearly stated and eight deliberately vaguely formulated.

Namely, in the first batch of six grounds there are the following reasons for using nuclear weapons: 1) to deter potential adversaries from nuclear and non-nuclear attack of any scale  and under any conditions on p.20; 2) to respond to any non-nuclear strategic attack on p.21; 3) to protect its allies and partners from nuclear and non-nuclear attack on p.21;  4) if attack is launched vs nuclear forces of the U.S. allies on p. 21; 5) to respond to any attack vs the USA, its allied or partner civilian population and infrastructure on p. 21; and 6) to use low-yield nuclear weapons as a credible deterrence against regional aggression on p. 54. They have been clearly formulated.

However, there are too vague reasons, still not explained by Washington what the USA has in mind, namely: 1) if “operational shortfalls” reduce the effectiveness of the U.S. nuclear forces on p.38; 2) to deny “unexpected challenges” on p.38; 3) in the event of “a geopolitical challenge” that threatens an element of U.S. nuclear forces on p. 40; 4) to respond against “multiple future risks and uncertainties” on p.48; 5) to respond to  “new forms of aggression” on p. 21; 6) to respond to “emergence of new adversaries”, expansion of adversary nuclear forces, changes in adversary strategy and doctrine on p.38; 7) to use vs NPT member-states, if they violate it (p.21); and 8) to overcome  “technical  challenges”  or  “adversaries’ technological breakthroughs”, and in case of any cyberattacks (p.38).

As has been repeatedly recognized in American military and political documents, in the next ten years, the Pentagon will receive up to US $ 400 billion dollars for strengthening the nuclear missile component, and in the next 30 years – US $ 1.2 trillion at constant prices, or US $ 1.7 trillion adjusted for inflation. No country in the world can spend such enormous amount of money for such weapons of mass destruction.

 

V. Current Russian nuclear strategy

It is fundamentally important that the Russian nuclear doctrines of 2010 (the previous one) and 2014 (the current one) do not contain provisions on the possibility of using Russian nuclear weapons in regional or local conflicts, which is attributed by some Western researchers. There is no indication of the separate use of strategic and tactical nuclear weapons. The present Russian military doctrine of 2014 annulled all the different opinions on this topic expressed before its adoption by various experts who did not declare an official point of view.

In addition, in the Russian military doctrine of 2014 there is no word about any desire of Moscow to implement the strategy of extended nuclear deterrence or forward-based nuclear deterrence, that is, by placing its own nuclear weapons on the territory of foreign states closer to American territory. Crucially, the updated version of Russia’s 2014 military doctrine lacks language about its desire to deploy strike elements of the global missile defense infrastructure in the territories of foreign countries.

Paragraph 8 of the 2014 military doctrine uses the term “non-nuclear deterrence system”, which referred to a set of foreign policy, military and military-technical measures aimed at preventing aggression against the Russian Federation by “non-nuclear means”. Paragraph 16 of the 2014 Russian military doctrine recognized that nuclear weapons will remain an important factor in preventing the nuclear military conflicts and military conflicts involving conventional weapons in large-scale war and regional warfare. Of fundamental importance is the provision of paragraph 20 of that Russian doctrine which stated that the prevention of a nuclear military conflict, like any other military conflict, is the basis of the military policy of the Russian Federation.

Paragraph 27, which fixes two possibilities for using nuclear weapons by the Russian Federation: in the case of use against it and (or) its allies of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction (i.e., chemical and bacteriological weapons), as well as in the case of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons, “when the very existence of the state is threatened.”

Thus, the current nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation in brief can be qualified as the doctrine of “conditional defensive nuclear deterrence”. In contrast, the current American nuclear strategy can be characterized as the doctrine of “unconditional offensive nuclear deterrence”, since it provides for the initiative of the first preventive and pre-emptive nuclear strikes on almost any state of the globe, at any time and under any pretext.

 

VI. Potential human and environmental damages of using nuclear weapons

Many widely renown scholars and experts believe that even a limited use of nuclear weapons in a regional conflict will bring huge human losses and devastating material and environmental damages to many nations. Those case studies conducted in the last century and today by Western nuclear scientists arrive to the same sad and negative conclusions: any use of nuclear weapons – however limited – will bring an Armageddon scenario to many people.

Only one nuclear bomb dropped on Amsterdam with the population of around one million will sweep completely away this wonderful European city and its surrounding areas in a moment. One nuclear warhead of 500 kiloton delivered to New York or Moscow will kill nearly 5 million people in each case.

On June 19, 2019 Ted W. Lieu (D-Los Angeles County) announced a provision he proposed banning the production of low-yield nuclear weapons passed the House the same day as a part of an appropriations package. The provision prohibits the research, development, production and deployment of low-yield nuclear warheads for submarine-launched ballistic missiles. In his introduction it was stated that so-called low-yield nuclear weapons have the potential to lower the threshold for using nuclear weapons and increase the risk of entering the U.S. into nuclear war.

In 2018 and 2019, he also introduced and reintroduced the Hold the LYNE Act – or Low-Yield Nuclear Explosive Act, which would prohibit the research, development, production and deployment of low-yield nuclear warheads for submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

In his words, “Low-yield nuclear bombs would yield horrific results. With the power to kill at least 80,000 people, these bombs could drag the U.S. and our allies into a devastating nuclear conflict. … A low-yield bomb simply puts us at risk for all-out nuclear Armageddon. I’m grateful this provision was included in this year’s Defense appropriations bill, so we can stop low-yield nuclear weapons from creating a high-risk situation”.

In that Act it was mentioned that a new low-yield nuclear weapon to be carried on a ballistic missile submarine “risks lowering the threshold for nuclear use and increasing the chance of miscalculation that could escalate into all-out nuclear exchange” and “when launched, such a low-yield nuclear warhead would be indistinguishable to an adversary from the high-yield W76 and W88 submarine launched warheads.”

The Act also warned that: the ballistic missile submarines of the United States have never carried low-yield nuclear warheads, and setting a historical precedent could undermine the unique and paramount role of ballistic-missile submarines as the assured, survivable second-strike capability of the United States to deter large-scale nuclear war. The Act concluded that the USA should reject policies that increase the likelihood of nuclear war and weaken national security, including investments in low-yield nuclear weapons.

Despite such opposition, a new nuclear warhead designed and produced during the Donald Trump Administration, has been deployed aboard a nuclear submarine of SSBN-class, the Pentagon confirmed at the end of 2019. The deployment of the W 76-2, a low-yield variant of the nuclear warhead traditionally used on the Trident SLBM, was first reported January 29, 2020 by the Federation of American Scientists. The first submarine to move out with the new weapon was the USS Tennessee (SSBN-734), deploying from Kings Bay Submarine Base in the state of Georgia at the end of 2019, FAS reported. 

The creation of a low-yield submarine launched warhead was one of two new designs called for in the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review. The warhead is designed to be smaller than the weapon detonated at Hiroshima, Japan, during World War II. The design is a modification of the W76-1 warhead for the Navy’s Trident ballistic missile that allowed the National Nuclear Security Administration to quickly turn around the design and production in roughly a year.

Opponents of the weapon question whether that doctrine is realistic, and also argue that no nuclear system can truly be non-strategic. Specific to the W76-2, members of the nonproliferation community have raised concerns that having a low-yield and high-yield warhead launched on the same SSBN creates a situation where an adversary doesn’t know which system is being used and therefore reacts as if the larger warhead has been launched.

Asked about the reported deployment of a new low-yield nuclear missile on Tennessee SSBN, a Pentagon spokesman stated that it is U.S. policy to neither “confirm nor deny” the presence of nuclear weapons abroad any naval vessel and declined to comment on the specific details of the FAS report what kind of naval platform was involved. However, in his statement, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy John Rood confirmed that the Navy has fielded the weapon that has been mentioned. 

Such deployment “strengthens deterrence and provides the United States a prompt, more survivable low-yield strategic weapon; supports our commitment to extended deterrence; and demonstrates to potential adversaries that there is no advantage to limited nuclear employment because the United States can credibly and decisively respond to any threat scenario,” John Rood directly wrote in the statement.

Taking into account his statement one can arrive at the conclusion that any type of the U.S. low-yield nuclear missiles should be considered as a very destabilizing weapon of mass destruction, because it can be used in many cases, and under many circumstances, and anywhere in the world.

There is a danger that any limited employment of nuclear weapons will be converted into a large-scale nuclear confrontation. In the first several hours of an all-out nuclear war 34 million people will die and 57 million will be injured. There will be a huge radioactive contamination of large populated areas and industrial centers. The situation may worsen if nuclear power plants or huge water dams will be destroyed in an exchange of nuclear arms attacks – be them conducted with strategic or tactical nuclear weapons.

 

VII. Practical suggestions: seven proposals to contain the nuclear arms race

There are the most immediate steps, and gradual measures to contain the ongoing nuclear arms race.

Amongst them there could be:

1. As the first step to be implemented in 2020: Russia and the USA plus all other nuclear-weapon states have to agree on no first-use or the first-strike of nuclear weapons.

2. The USA should extend the New START for the next five years, and return to the compliance with the INF Treaty (Russian SSC-8 or 9M729 missile is not covered by the former INF Treaty); the USA has to pull back all its TNW from Europe and pledge not to field them and the INF-related nuclear and non-nuclear missiles in Europe and the Asia-Pacific Region.

3. The USA and Russia should set up a proportion between missile defense system (MDS) interceptors & strategic offensive nuclear arms delivery systems, and agree about MDS no-deployment zones. The USA has to dismantle its MDS bases in Romania and Poland, South Korea and Japan.

4. The USA has to ratify the CTBT and pledge not to explode any nuclear devices at Nevada test site. Note: Russia has ratified it in 2000.

5. Russia and the USA have to proliferate the INCSEA accord on the SSBN and SSN while submerged at their respective Navies Training Areas.

6. The USA and NATO as a whole have to cancel «Baltic Air Policing Operation» in the airspace of three Baltic states and Poland where it uses the DCA aircraft.

7. Space-faring nations have to sign the international PAROS or Prevention of Arms Race in Outer Space/NFEWS Treaty or Now-First Employment of Weapons in Space Treaty.

If such arrangements will be impossible to implement as a package deal, at least one first step has to be examined with due attention: to reach a commitment of all P-5 on no-first nuclear strike against each other. It will constitute the real action to avoid an all-out nuclear war that has become highly likely in the present-day tense and hostile military and political environment.

All these measures can also be debated at the suggested the P-5 Summit on arms control if it is arranged later this year, presumably in New York city during the next regular UN General Assembly Session. No doubt that such measures will enhance predictability between the P-5 and improve regional and global security, and planetary strategic stability. As for nuclear risks, Moscow is working on a joint statement with the other permanent members of the UN Security Council on the inadmissibility of a nuclear war.

Unfortunately, the United States has failed to respond to Russia’s proposal to repeat once more the well-known Gorbachev-Reagan formula in a bilateral format. In this case Russia will try to make such a reconfirmation in a multilateral format during the upcoming P-5 Summit.

It is very sad that in light of the situation related to the COVID-19 pandemic the 2020 NPT Review Conference has been postponed to a later date, “as soon as the circumstances permit”, but no later than April 2021. Russian stance and priorities in nuclear disarmament have been comprehensively described in the Russian Working Paper submitted to the second Preparatory Committee for the 10th NPT Review Conference. It stipulates a consensus-based incremental approach that implies consistent work on creating the right conditions that help the global community to continue down the path toward nuclear disarmament. Moscow still believes that complete elimination of nuclear weapons is only possible within comprehensive and complete disarmament and under conditions of equal and indivisible security for all, including nuclear states, in accordance with the NPT.

My personal view is that a nuclear-free world can be built by 2045 – by a centenary of the tragic use of nuclear bombs versus Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Or earlier than by 2045, if there is a world-wide consensus.

And the final brush: the highly virulent COVID-19 pandemic has brought so far too many innocent victims amongst almost all countries all over the world, and caused tremendous economic and financial losses needed to fight this horrible decease. At the beginning of April 2020 more than 1 million people have been infected by COVID-19, and more 65 thousand died.  Sat the end of May the same year more than 5.5 million people have got this highly virulent disease, and nearly 350 thousand passed away. It is a very sad reality.

But it will be much sadder reality, if any nuclear conflict intentionally or unintentionally will erupt – God forbid! – with much horrible consequences around the globe than the Corona virus per se has done. If you compare such results reached in the first several hours of an all-out nuclear war with figures already mentioned: 34 million people dead and 57 million injured. Or more.

That is why all of us will have to bear it in mind, and to take specific steps to avoid such a gloomy scenario.

 

 

 

Материал опубликован  в рамках спецпроекта ЦВПИ МГИМО 

Breaking news: Kiev supported by the USA and NATO started a large-scale military aggression vs Donbass

Ukraine and Donbass accuse each other of heavy shelling

17 February, 2022

The reports came through after the Kremlin claimed the risk of conflict in the region remained high.

Heavy fire and explosions have been reported on the contact line in Ukraine’s war-torn Donbass region, with Kiev’s forces and those loyal to the two breakaway self-declared republics accusing each other of aggression hours after the Kremlin warned fresh fighting could be on the cards.

Leaders from the unrecognised separatist Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) in the east of Ukraine reported on Thursday [17 February, 2022] that government troops had attacked the outskirts of its territory. According to the DPR, units from Kiev fired at several towns and villages using 82 millimeter mortars, hand grenades, and rifles.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces subsequently reported that a settlement located near the Lugansk People’s Republic, the other breakaway territory in the region, had been attacked and photographs circulating online purport to show a kindergarten hit by a shell on the side controlled by government forces. Authorities stated that two civilians had been injured, missiles had hit the school, and half the area had lost electricity. The residents were evacuated.

The invasion is off, but the crisis isn’t over.

Kiev has been locked in a civil war with the two breakaway territories since 2014, when separatists declared independent republics following the ousting of then-President Viktor Yanukovych during mass street protests. Ukrainian officials, along with Western countries, have accused Russia of supporting the rebels and fueling the conflict.

Moscow denies being a party to the war, and does not officially recognize the Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic as independent states.

This week, however, the Russian parliament voted in favor of a motion addressed to President Vladimir Putin that called for Russia to announce its support for the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk, with 351 legislators backing the draft proposal and just 16 opposing. Putin has said that he favors a diplomatic solution and believes the Minsk agreements should be honored, but is yet to respond formally to the proposal.

On Wednesday [16 February, 2022], Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov claimed that it was quite likely that Ukraine would seek a military solution to the conflict. “The attention of our interlocutors is drawn to the fact that a military operation and an attempt to resolve problems with the use of force in the southeast are quite real,” he stated. “This probability is high and real.”

https://www.rt.com/russia/549672-ukraine-donbass-leaders-accuse/

Breakaway Ukrainian region orders evacuation

Civilians must flee from rebel-held Donetsk region to Russia, its head says

18 February, 2022

Ukrainian troops have been bolstered with arms supplies from Western nations and “are now prepositioned for combat and ready to take Donbass by force,” Denis Pushilin claimed in a statement on Friday, referring to his region and fellow breakaway entity, the Lugansk People’s Republic, by their collective name.

The Ukrainian rebels are expecting President Volodymyr Zelensky to order an offensive “in the nearest future.” Their military forces are prepared to fight, but civilians in rebel-controlled areas are at risk of being caught in the crossfire, the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic warned.

“That is why starting today, February 18, a mass evacuation of people to the Russian Federation has been organized,” he said, adding that vulnerable groups like women, children, and the elderly would be given priority.

Pushilin said Russian officials in the neighboring Rostov Region are expecting an inflow of evacuees and will provide them with what they need. There will be conditions at border crossings to expedite the process, he added. He urged people “to heed to the warning and take the right decision,” saying that the relocation would be temporary and would save lives.

https://www.rt.com/russia/549874-breakaway-ukrainian-region-evacuation/

Additional information

1. Ukrainian Armed Forces started a large-scale shelling of Donbas since February 16, 2022. They are using 122-mm MRLS Grad, 120-mm and 82-mm heavy artillery and mortars, etc. prohibited by the Minsk agreement. Firing started along the 400 km entire line of disengagement.

2. In doing so Ukrainian Armed Forces has violated the 2020 ceasefire agreement with Donbas: February 14=274 times, February 15= 154 times, February 16=591 times, February 17=500 times and February 18 (during the first half of the day)=more than 300 times.

3. Civilian targets like buildings, heavy-duty roads, railroads, electricity supply towers in Donbas are now destroyed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

4. Ukrainian Armed Forces arranged a provocation by claiming that a kindergarten has been hit by Donbas fire (see please attached slides). Donbas has never done such act.

So far, the USA and its NATO allies have supplied Kiev with 1.500 ton of arms and ammunition (see slide).

 

 

 

 

 

 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Can Donald Trump’s recent nuclear arms control initiatives be implemented?

A nuclear-free world can not be a partial one. It can be only universal, embracing all nuclear nations

On May 3rd, 2019 US President Donald Trump has spoken by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin about the possibility of a “new nuclear agreement”. Regarding the possibility of such accord, Press Secretary Sarah Sanders told reporters it could either be a new multilateral nuclear accord between the USA, Russia and China or the extension of the current U.S.-Russia strategic nuclear arrangement – namely, the New START.

However, both options have been regarded by many Russian and foreign experts as unworkable for two major reasons: first, nobody will sign a totally new  multilateral nuclear accord limited by three nuclear powers and neglecting the rest of the nuclear club consisting of six more nations processing nuclear capabilities, and second, the USA has not displayed any interest to extend the New START for the next five years after it expires in February 2021.

Russian officials and military experts have criticized Donald Trump’s idea articulated last April and at the beginning of May to elaborate a new accord on nuclear weapons and the delivery systems that would encompass all American, Russian and Chinese nuclear arms. Nuclear-free world cannot be a partial one. It can be only universal, embracing all nuclear nations.

Donald Trump’s proposals on nuclear arms disarmament are “not serious”, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said April 27, 2019. Sergei Ryabkov, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, noted last April that Moscow’s response to that offer would depend on the nature of any U.S. proposals. He underscored that further steps towards nuclear disarmament “… would require creating a number of prerequisites and taking into account many factors that have a direct impact on strategic stability”, including missile defense systems, cyber weapons, weapons development in space, and advanced conventional arms. Nuclear arms expert Jon Wolfsthal, who is a fellow with Harvard University and former Special Assistant to President Barack Obama for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, has observed in the Defense One edition May 2nd, 2019 that Donald Trump’s idea to start talks on elaborating a new trilateral nuclear arms control treaty is likely a pipe dream or a “smoke screen” for scuttling yet another arms control agreement, and has the aim to kill the New START. In Jon Wolfsthal’s words, the current U.S. President appears willing to undo anything achieved by his predecessor “as some kind of ego-driven vendetta”.

Washington rejected Moscow’s proposal to consider in detail specific measures aimed at strengthening strategic stability, mainly emphasizing the solution of only two issues of particular interest to it: the possibility of recreating nuclear weapons and their means of delivery by Iran and the improvement of nuclear missile systems by North Korea.

The USA has been in the lengthy process to violate the New START as an important bilateral Russian-American nuclear arms control treaty, which has an impact on global strategic stability. It will expire on February 5, 2021. High ranking U. S. officials has publicly admitted that the U.S. side was not interested in extending its term for the next five years when it will expire by that date.

Over the past two years, in violation of the New START, the American Strategic Nuclear Forces have been re-equipping part of their strategic offensive nuclear arms, including four launchers at each of the existing 14 Ohio-class SSBNs and 41 B-52H heavy strategic bombers, unilaterally excluding them from the aggregate numbers specified by this Treaty. Such action gives the U.S side the opportunity to quickly increase the potential of their strategic offensive nuclear arms, increasing the number of strategic nuclear warheads by more than 1,200 units.

Besides that, in 2019, the current U.S. Administration continued to destroy the system of international treaties in the field of arms control and at the same time made significant efforts to strengthen the national Armed Forces on a global scale in accordance with its key slogans "America first!” and “Peace through strength". In December 2018, the 45th Republican President has ordered to hammer out a draft military budget for FY 2020 in the amount of US $ 750 billion that is $ 25 billion more than the expenditures allocated for the same purpose in the FY 2019.

Washington continues to display a negative attitude to 12 more international treaties and agreements in the field of arms control. No other country in the world has ever broken off this alarming record. Some of these accords the USA deliberately violated, for example the INF Treaty, the NPT and the Open Skies Treaty.

The greater number of violations made by the USA in this domain was the violations of the INF Treaty which earlier has been labelled by high-ranking U.S. officials as a cornerstone of the global stability. During last twenty years this treaty has been violated by the U.S. side 117 times. Such violations have been recorded during testing of the American BMD system when its interceptors have been targeted at the INF test missiles involving six types of the shorter-range and medium-range ballistic and cruise test missiles prohibited by the INF accord. So, during such exercises Washington has violated namely Articles IV and VI of the Gorbachev-Reagan agreement signed more than 30 years ago.

Such reliable information was borrowed from two major official sources. First, from the press-releases issued by the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency each time when it has conducted flight tests to prove the efficiency of the global U.S. BMD “shield”. And, second, from specific reports prepared by the U.S. Congressional Research Service covering the records of these flight tests when the INF dummy missiles have been used as intercepted targets by the BMD system.

On the other hand, Russia has not violated the INF Treaty and is not going to be the initiator to torpedo it. During the last six years Washington has not tabled any vivid fact that Moscow has ‘violated’ the treaty. The cruise missile designated as ‘9M729’ does not fall into limitations of the Treaty, because it has maximum range of 480 km. The USA has got detailed Russian explanations on this matter.

It looks like that Washington will finally withdraw from the INF Treaty at the beginning of August 2019 because it has a two-fold task: to examine the viability of its own unlimited global BMD infrastructure, and to test the newly-developed INF missiles that would be deployed in Europe and in the Asia-Pacific Region.

A potential withdrawal of the USA from the INF Treaty:  1) will undermine the global strategic equation, push all nuclear-weapon states into a deep-seated mistrust, destroy the NPT regime and prompt all 32 states capable to produce intermediate-range missiles without any limitations; 2) will create a negative domino-style effect that will complicate nuclear arms control. Namely, in the military sphere it will block the potential resolution of the nuclear arms deal to be applied to the Korean Peninsula, may bring the U.S. nuclear weapons to Japan and the Republic of Korea. In the political domain such step will undermine specific solutions at the upcoming 2020 NPT Review Conference and erect unsurmountable obstacles for entry into force of the Treaty on Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.            

There are several goals the United States is seeking by scrapping the INF Treaty: to produce and deploy in Europe and in Asia-Pacific several new INF-type nuclear-tipped ballistic and cruise missiles; to repeat the situation emerged before the 1979 NATO “double track decision”; to demand from Russia to unilaterally scrap ins INF non-compliant ballistic and cruise missiles; to engage the PRC in the new nuclear dialogue; to demand from its NATO allies to increase the military expenditures initially specified at 2 percent level from the GDP to 4 percent.

While maintaining its tactical nuclear capabilities on the European continent, the United States continues to violate Article I of the NPT, which prohibits nuclear-weapon states from deploying nuclear weapons on the territory of non-nuclear-weapon states. The National Nuclear Safety Administration is asking for $ 793 million in the 2020 FY budget to continue developing and production of B-61-12 free-fall nuclear bomb with high accuracy.

The United States unilaterally withdrew from the ABM Treaty in 2002 and is not going to return to its obligations. The relevant consultations aimed at finding a compromise between Moscow and Washington on the BMD systems deployments that have lasted for 12 years has ended with no practical solutions. The USA does not want to resume such dialogue and set up maximum unsurmountable ceilings on the BMD interceptors and their geographic deployment.

The United States refused to ratify at all some important agreements, such as the adapted Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE-1A) and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. On the contrary, the current U.S. nuclear strategy described in 2018 NPR provides for the resumption of nuclear tests at the nuclear test site in Nevada. Recently, the U.S. Administration has decided to drop out of and not to ratify the International Arms Trade Treaty, the 2013 pact designed to regulate the international trade of conventional arms, including the sale of heavy weapons, and to reduce the illicit arms trade.

Washington has unreasonably imposed a geographic constrains on the implementation of the Open Skies Treaty by banning overflights of Russian aircraft with relevant inspection teams over its upgraded missile defense centers emplaced in Alaska and Hawaii.

The current U.S. Administration has unilaterally withdrawn from the Vienna agreement on the Iranian nuclear program – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Actions though it has been sanctioned by the UN Security Council.

Washington is in no hurry to completely eliminate chemical weapons in accordance with the global Convention on its prohibition (CWC), although Russia has already done so.

The White House refused to discuss the draft of two international treaties: the Treaty on European security and the Treaty on the prevention of the emplacement of weapons in outer space.  The same attitude is demonstrated by the American side to Moscow's proposal to extend the provisions of the Soviet-American Agreement on the prevention of incidents at the high seas of 1972 (INCSEA Agreement) to Russian and American submarines sailing in a submerged position, in order to prevent their underwater collisions though there have been already eleven cases involving them.

The USA does not have any intention to debate a draft PAROS Treaty – an accord on preventing arms race in outer space tabled initially in 2008, and to take a commitment not to be the first to deploy space-based strike weapons.

Approved by the 45th U.S. President, the new ambitious nuclear strategy provides for lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons by increasing the list of reasons for their use: it recorded 14 such cases against six, which were reflected in a similar strategy of his predecessor Barack Obama, and versus two clauses specified in the Russian nuclear posture. The current U.S. nuclear strategy provides for the possibility of using low-yield nuclear warheads of 5 kilotons and below to be used for the ‘escalation of de-escalation’ purposes.

Despite the objections of the U.S. Congress, President Donald Trump retained the exclusive right to unilaterally use of nuclear weapons under numerous pretexts, which has already caused concern inside two key parties of the country – not only the opposition Democratic, but also the ruling Republican GOP.

At the same time, the current American military and political leadership continues to implement the approved programs for the modernization of strategic and tactical nuclear weapons and their means of delivery, as well as the decisions aimed at creating a fundamentally new strategic nuclear triad with the complete replacement of all three components of the existing strategic nuclear weapons. The FY 2020 U.S. military budget requests include allocations of funds to continue to forge a qualitatively new strategic nuclear triad.

A Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report released last February has estimated that the USA would spend US $ 494 billion on nuclear weapons from fiscal years 2019-2028. That is an increase of $ 94 billion, or 23 percent from the CBO’s previous 10-year estimate of $ 400 billion, published in January 2017. The Trump’s Administration’s budget proposals contain increases for several nuclear weapons systems.

All these factors create a new military reality, which Moscow has to take into account in its policy aimed at strengthening the country's defense capability, the development of the Russian Armed Forces, as well as in the conduct of pro-active foreign policy on the international arena in general. The Russian Federation has created some completely new hypersonic systems to penetrate the U.S. BMD ‘shield’ that the USA will not be able to match for several years. It is a justifiable decision dictated by a specific, extraordinary developments.

In such dramatic circumstances there might emerge two additional global arms races – a missile defense arms race and a space-based arms race – that will complement the nuclear arms race that has never ceased since 1945. The USA will bear the sole responsibility for such unlucky scenario.

Written by Vladimir Kozin, Leading Expert, Center for Military-Political Studies, Moscow State Institute of International Relations, Member of the Russian Academies of Military Sciences and Natural Sciences

Can Donald Trump’s recent nuclear arms control initiatives be implemented?

The U.S. President Donald Trump had a lengthy telecon with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on May 3, 2019, about the possibility of a “new nuclear agreement.” The American Press Secretary Sarah Sanders had shared a possibility in a press conference, that it could either be a new U.S.-Russia-China multilateral nuclear accord, or the extension of current U.S.- Russia strategic nuclear arrangement – the New START.

However, both options have been regarded by many Russian and foreign experts as unworkable for two major reasons: first, nobody will sign a totally new multilateral nuclear accord limited to only three nuclear powers and neglecting the club the U.S. has not displayed any interest in extending the New START for the next five years after it expires in February 2021. Russian officials and military experts have criticized President Trump’s idea made last April to elaborate a new accord on nuclear weapons and the delivery systems that would encompass all American, Russian and Chinese nuclear arms. His proposals on nuclear arms disarmament are “not serious,” as commented by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on April 27, 2019.

Sergei Ryabkov, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, noted last April that Moscow’s response to that offer would depend on the nature of any U.S. proposals. He underscored that further steps towards nuclear disarmament “… would require creating a number of prerequisites and taking into account many factors that have a direct impact on strategic stability,” including missile defense systems, cyber weapons, weapons development in space, and advanced conventional arms.

Nuclear arms expert Jon Wolfsthal, a Fellow with Harvard University and former Special Assistant to President Obama for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, has observed in the Defense One edition of May 2, 2019, that Trump’s idea to start talks on elaborating a new trilateral nuclear arms control treaty is likely a pipe dream or a “smoke screen” for scuttling yet another arms control agreement, and has the aim to kill the New START. In Wolfsthal’s words, the current U.S. President appears willing to undo anything achieved by his predecessor “as some kind of egodriven vendetta.”

Washington rejected Moscow’s proposal for a detailed consideration of specific measures aimed at strengthening strategic stability, mainly emphasizing the solution of only two issues of particular interest to it: the possibility of recreating nuclear weapons and their means of delivery by Iran, and the improvement of nuclear missile systems by North Korea.

The U.S. has been in the lengthy process to violate the New START as an important bilateral Russian-American nuclear arms control treaty, which has an impact on global strategic stability. It will expire on February 5, 2021. High ranking U.S. officials have publicly admitted that the U.S. side will not be interested in extending its term for the next five years.

Over the past two years, in violation of the New START, the American Strategic Nuclear Forces have been re-equipping part of their strategic offensive nuclear arms, including four launchers at each of the existing 14 Ohio-class SSBNs and 41 B-52H heavy strategic bombers, unilaterally excluding them from the aggregate numbers specified by this Treaty. Such action gives the U.S side the opportunity to quickly increase the potential of their strategic offensive nuclear arms, increasing the number of strategic nuclear warheads by more than 1,200 units.

Besides that, in 2019, the current U.S. administration continued to destroy the system of international treaties in the field of arms control and at the same time made significant efforts to strengthen the national Armed Forces on a global scale in accordance with its key slogans “America first!” and “Peace through strength.” In December 2018, the 45th Republican President has ordered to hammer out a draft military budget for FY 2020 in the amount of $750 billion that is $25 billion more than the expenditures allocated for the same purpose in the FY 2019. Washington continues to display a negative attitude to 12 more international treaties and agreements in the field of arms control. No other country in the world has ever broken off this alarming record. Some of these accords that the U.S. deliberately violated include the INF Treaty, the NPT, and the Open Skies Treaty.

A major U.S. violation in this domain was the revocation of the INF Treaty, that earlier was labelled by the high-ranking U.S. officials as a cornerstone of global stability. During the last twenty years, this treaty has been violated 117 times by the U.S. side. Such violations have been recorded during testing of the American BMD system when its interceptors have been targeted at the INF test missiles involving six types of the shorter-range and medium-range ballistic and cruise test missiles prohibited by the INF accord. So, during such exercises Washington has violated Articles IV and VI of the Gorbachev-Reagan agreement signed more than 30 years ago.

This reliable information was borrowed from two major official sources. First, from the press-releases issued by the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency each time when it has conducted flight tests to prove the efficiency of global U.S. BMD “shield.” And, second, from specific reports prepared by the U.S. Congressional Research Service covering the records of these flight tests when the INF dummy missiles have been used as intercepted targets by the BMD system.

On the other hand, Russia has not violated the INF Treaty and is not going to be the initiator to torpedo it. During the last six years Washington has not tabled any clear evidence that Moscow has “violated” the treaty. The cruise missile designated as “9M729” does not fall into limitations of the Treaty, because it has maximum range of 480 kilometers. The U.S. has received detailed Russian explanations on this matter.

It looks like that Washington will finally withdraw from the INF Treaty at the beginning of August 2019, because it has a two-fold task: to examine the viability of its own unlimited global BMD infrastructure, and to test the newly developed INF missiles that would be deployed in Europe and in the Asia Pacific region.

A potential withdrawal of U.S. from the INF Treaty will: 1) undermine the global strategic equation, push all nuclear weapon states into a deep-seated mistrust, destroy the NPT regime and prompt all 32 states capable of producing intermediate range missiles without any limitations; 2) It will create a negative domino-style effect that will complicate nuclear arms control: in the military sphere it will block the potential resolution of the nuclear arms deal to be applied to the Korean Peninsula, may bring the U.S. nuclear weapons to Japan and the Republic of Korea; and in the political domain such step will undermine specific solutions at the upcoming 2020 NPT Review Conference and erect unsurmountable obstacles for entry into force of the Treaty on Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

There are several goals that U.S. seeks by scrapping the INF Treaty: produce and deploy several new INF-type nuclear-tipped ballistic and cruise missiles in Europe and in Asia Pacific; repeat the situation that emerged before the 1979 NATO “double track decision”; demand from Russia to unilaterally scrap its INF non-compliant ballistic and cruise missiles; engage China in the new nuclear dialogue; demand from its NATO allies to increase the military expenditures initially specified at 2 percent level from the GDP to 4 percent.

While maintaining its tactical nuclear capabilities on the European continent, the U.S. continues to violate Article I of the NPT, which prohibits nuclear-weapon states from deploying nuclear weapons on the territory of non-nuclear-weapon states. The National Nuclear Safety Administration is asking for $793 million in the 2020 FY budget to continue development and production of B-61-12 free-fall nuclear bomb with high accuracy.

The U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the ABM Treaty in 2002 and is not going to return to its obligations. The relevant consultations aimed at finding a compromise between Moscow and Washington on the BMD systems deployments that have lasted for 12 years has ended with no practical solutions. The U.S. does not want to resume such dialogue and set up maximum unsurmountable ceilings on BMD interceptors and their geographic deployment. It also refused to ratify some important agreements, such as the adopted Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE-1A) and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. On the contrary, the current U.S. nuclear strategy described in 2018 NPR provides for the resumption of nuclear tests at the nuclear test site in Nevada. Recently, the U.S. Administration has decided to drop out of and not to ratify the International Arms Trade Treaty, the 2013 pact designed to regulate the international trade of conventional arms, including the sale of heavy weapons, and to reduce the illicit arms trade. Washington has unreasonably imposed geographic constrains on the implementation of the Open Skies Treaty by banning overflights of Russian aircraft with relevant inspection teams over its upgraded missile defense centers emplaced in Alaska and Hawaii.

The current U.S. Administration has unilaterally withdrawn from the Vienna agreement on the Iranian nuclear program – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Actions though it has been sanctioned by the UN Security Council. Washington is in no hurry to completely eliminate chemical weapons in accordance with the global Convention on its prohibition (CWC), although Russia has already done so.

The White House refused to discuss the draft of two international treaties: the Treaty on European security and the Treaty on the prevention of the placement of weapons in outer space. The same attitude is demonstrated by the American side to Moscow’s proposal to extend the provisions of the Soviet- American Agreement on the prevention of incidents at the high seas of 1972 (INCSEA Agreement) to Russian and American submarines sailing in a submerged position, in order to prevent their underwater collisions though there have been already eleven cases involving them.

Moreover, the U.S. does not have any intention to debate a draft PAROS Treaty – an accord on preventing arms race in outer space tabled initially in 2008, and to take a commitment not to be the first to deploy space-based strike weapons. Approved by the 45th U.S. President, the new ambitious nuclear strategy provides for lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons by increasing the list of reasons for their use: it recorded 14 such cases against six, which were reflected in a similar strategy of his predecessor Barack Obama, and versus two clauses specified in the Russian nuclear posture. The current U.S. nuclear strategy provides for the possibility of using low-yield nuclear warheads of 5 kilotons and below, to be used for the “escalation of de-escalation” purposes.

Despite the objections by the U.S. Congress, President Trump retained the exclusive right to unilaterally use nuclear weapons under numerous pretexts, which has already caused concern inside two key parties of the country – not only the Democrats who are in opposition, but also the ruling Republican GOP.

At the same time, the current American military and political leadership continues to implement the approved programs for the modernization of strategic and tactical nuclear weapons and their means of delivery, as well as the decisions aimed at creating a fundamentally new strategic nuclear triad with the complete replacement of all three components of the existing strategic nuclear weapons. The FY 2020 U.S. military budget requests include allocations of funds to continue to forge a qualitatively new strategic nuclear triad.

A Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report released last February has estimated that the U.S. would spend $494 billion on nuclear weapons from fiscal years 2019-28. That is an increase of $94 billion, or 23 percent from the CBO’s previous 10-year estimate of $400 billion, published in January 2017. The Trump’s administration’s budget proposals contain increases for several nuclear weapons systems.

All these factors create a new military reality, which Moscow has to take into account in its policy aimed at strengthening the country’s defense capability, the development of the Russian Armed Forces, as well as in the conduct of pro-active foreign policy on the international arena in general.

The Russian Federation has created some мcompletely new hypersonic systems to penetrate the U.S. BMD “shield” that the USA will not be able to match for several years.

In such dramatic circumstances there might emerge two additional global arms races – a missile defense arms race and a space-based arms race – that will complement the nuclear arms race that has never ceased since 1945. The sole responsibility for such unlucky scenario will be on the U.S., unless it contributes to the present nuclear world order the way it should be, with a focus on amicably resolving matters.

Written by  Vladimir P. Kozin,  Source: “Pakistan Politico” magazine

Conversation on Russia, U.S., Peace, and War, with Vladimir Kozin and Ray McGovern

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин принял участие в качестве выступающего в видео-конференции по проблематике российско-американских отношений «Conversation on Russia, U.S., Peace, and War, with Vladimir Kozin and Ray McGovern», организованной международной НКО World BEYOND War (1,8 тыс. подписчиков) и американской НКО Center for Citizen Initiatives.

6 мая 2021.

Полностью видеозапись конференции можно посмотреть на канале организаторов (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=liwPu...)

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For every new NATO missile aimed at Russia, Ukraine will lose another Yuzhmash plant

(Translation of Vladimir Kozin's interview; original in Russian was released on November 27,2024; preface is written by Ukraina.ru)

 

December 10, 2024

Volodymyr Zelensky may receive nuclear weapons from the West, but he will not press the "Launch" button. In turn, Russia has every right to use any weapons to stop NATO and Ukraine. Corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences of Russia, historian, diplomat Vladimir Kozin told in an interview with the website Ukraina.ru about where the next Oreshnik, Kinzhal and Iskander missiles will fly if the West does not stop its aggression.

NATO is discussing the possibility of carrying out preventive high-precision strikes deep into Russian territory in the event of an armed conflict, said Admiral Rob Bauer, head of the Alliance's Military Committee, at a press conference in Brussels which was broadcast via YouTube channel on November 25, 2024.

Earlier, on November 21, The New York Times reported that officials from the USA and Europe suggested returning to Kyiv the nuclear weapons that Ukraine renounced after the collapse of the USSR.

Q: The West is talking about the possibility of transferring nuclear weapons to Ukraine. If this happens, what steps are possible on our part? After all, Zelensky wants to provoke Russia to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine in order to isolate us in the world.

A: Firstly, as of today, November 27, 2024, neither Joe Biden, nor the US Secretary of Defense, nor the US Secretary of State have made any statements about the possible transfer of American nuclear weapons to Ukraine.

Since Ukraine and NATO are waging undeclared large-scale aggression against Russia, statements like the one that got into The New York Times are quite natural. There might be information or disinformation.

However, we must take into account any such leaks: it does not matter whether they are related to nuclear technologies, conventional weapons or nuclear arms delivery vehicles.

Secondly, the Americans have never transferred nuclear weapons even to NATO allies under their full control. Yes, they have deployed their nuclear weapons on the territory of four European countries and the Asian part of Turkey, but total control over the nuclear button, so to speak, remains in the hands of the United States.

Therefore, I am not sure that the Americans really plan to transfer nuclear weapons to Zelensky with the right to press the "Launch" button to strike Russian territory. This would be a gross violation of Article 1 of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty by the United States and Article 2 by Ukraine, which, let's say, would agree to accept weapons of mass destruction on its soil. Of course, such things should not be conveyed under any circumstances to the mentally unstable ex-president of Ukraine, and nowadays an ordinary citizen Zelensky. This is extremely dangerous.

Q: But let's imagine that such weapons have been handed over to Zelensky. What’s then?

A: First. In this case, Ukraine will use nuclear weapons and launch its first nuclear strike on Russian territory. Then – and this is beyond any doubt –
 it will be totally destroyed as a state by a retaliatory nuclear strike.

In this case, we will not be talking about the destruction of some plant in the sphere of military-industrial complex (MIC) or the presidential Administration located on Bankovaya Street in Kyiv – the entire military machine of Ukraine will be destroyed. I believe that we should make a special statement about such a possibility.

Second. We can use our nuclear technologies in accordance with the updated nuclear strategy called "Fundamentals of the State Policy of Russia in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence." And the result for Ukraine will be exactly in the same way as in the first case.

We have the right to do this. Ukraine initiated aggression first in Donbass, and later against Russia. By the way, our November 19, 2024 nuclear strategy uses the word "aggression" [of the West, Ukraine] everywhere. We need to take this into consideration in all political statements made by Russia.

What else is important? As is known, nuclear weapons and other non-nuclear arms are mainly delivered to Ukraine by NATO military transport aircraft. Therefore, Russia should declare all Ukrainian airspace as a ‘no-fly-zone’ or zone closed to flights by any military aircraft. Except civilian ones, of course.

Then NATO and Kyiv will clearly know that any military transport aircraft that are carrying artillery shells, long-range missiles, tanks and APCs for the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be destroyed by us when they cross the air border in the western part of Ukraine.

By the way, the F-16 aircraft that Denmark and the Netherlands are going to transfer to Ukraine on behalf of the NATO Alliance are certified for delivering tactical nuclear weapons.

We do not know whether Ukraine received all such aircraft or only some of them; one was even shot down by Ukrainian own AAD units. But there were no official statements from Kyiv. It is quite possible that the full F-16 aircraft package has either already been transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, or they are planned to be delivered – as NATO did before by sending other combat systems.

Q: But, the war is not with Ukraine, but with the West. What will change if we deliver a strike on Ukraine, no matter what kind? After all, the USA and Europe are not hit, and they don’t care…

A: The nuclear strategy updated on November 19 provides for strikes against those countries that use any type of weapons against us. The USA uses long-range ATACMS systems, the UK and France employ Storm Shadow/SCALP. Moreover, Macron announced that soon after we issued a corresponding warning about our retaliatory strikes.

To ensure that our words are not just empty political statements, without real material consequences, we must take up actions. We must, as we used to say, resort to our power, and not just call someone for any order.

Unfortunately, we have repeatedly spoken about various ‘red lines’ and have taught the West with such statements that there are no specific actions on our part behind them.

Q: What practical measures can we take, in your opinion?

A: There is a military airfield in Rzeszow in Poland, where American military transport aircraft land. Why does this hub still exist peacefully? Why do U.S. heavy strategic bombers that deliver nuclear weapons land on the territory of the Czech Republic?

And in general, on the territory of 19 NATO member countries, the U.S. European allies, American heavy strategic bombers essentially use so called ‘air Schengen’ or visa-free entry and overfly rights, without any preliminary notifications. The U.S. aircraft land, fly, and patrol European airspace without any prior warnings.

Q: Okay, we will strike these airfields in Poland or the Czech Republic. But then we will be accused of being the first to start a war against NATO. And what then? How will our allies react to this?

A: We have not started this war. I want to emphasize this specifically. The war was unleashed by Ukraine on April 14, 2014 when Kyiv officially began military operation against Donbass following the Decree signed by Ukrainian president ad interim Oleksandr Turchinov who authorized to begin a massive military operation in the southeast of the country against Donbass. The is why our retaliatory actions have become defensive in nature and were aimed at protecting people of Donbass and Russian sovereignty and territorial integrity. Why should we be embarrassed like this: ‘Oh, how badly they might think of our behavior?’ I believe that we have the sacred right to give a full response to the real aggressor – insidious, evil, unyielding, as well as to its NATO allies.

Q: Earlier, General Igor Kirillov [Russian MoD] said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a ‘dirty bomb’ to be made of radioactive materials. This is not the first statement released by the Russian Defense Ministry about Ukraine violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Could it happen that Zelensky will use a ‘dirty bomb’ against us?

A: From a person ‘who has gone off the rails’ – I mean citizen Zelensky – you can expect anything. Moreover, he enjoys colossal military and political support from the outgoing American President Joe Biden. In conditions when the newly elected President Donald Trump keeps silence.

There are known Ukrainian research centers and industrial enterprises where ‘a dirty nuclear bomb’ can be hammered out. I believe that Russia needs to launch a preventive non-nuclear strike against such facilities – firing Oreshnik, Kinzhal and Iskander missiles. And we should not be afraid of any condemnation from outside, otherwise we can lead the situation to a dead end.

I repeat, we can be labelled as the victim of the aggression. That is why we have an undisputable duty to respond to it in any way. A hypothetical example: when you see an attacker with a machine gun next to you who can kill you, what will you do? If you do not open fire on him first, he will kill you. So, you will have to make a distinctive choice: either he will kill you, or you will have to kill him.

Another important point. We know that Zelensky gave orders to strike at Zaporoznskaya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) controlled by Russia. Unfortunately, in our information and explanatory activity we only recently reported overall figures of such strikes against ZNPP, against the adjacent territory and the neighboring city of Energodar, where ZNPP engineers live.

Ukrainian Armed Forces wanted to take Kursk NPP for the purpose of nuclear blackmailing. The same plans have been forged in Kursk Region.

The means for attacking all NPPs must be destroyed. It is necessary to develop measures to neutralize such threats.

Q: Why has U.S. President-elect Donald Trump still not commented on the missiles’ strikes deep into Russia, on recent Vladimir Putin's statements dealt with nuclear weapons and on the newest Oreshnik missile? What is behind this?

A: Donald Trump has indeed declared his readiness to end the Ukrainian crisis, as he put it, in 24 hours. But I want to draw your attention to the fact that his program for promptly ending the conflict in Ukraine remains unclear for two reasons.

First, he has not provided any details of this plan. And he is unlikely to announce them until he takes office on January 20 next year.

Second, there is a very appropriate question for colleagues who are showing warm optimism about Donald Trump's statements on the topic of Ukraine: "Are you sure that Mr. Trump is ready to resolve this problem in the interests of the Russian Federation?" I do not think he is ready to do this in favor of Moscow.

This will most likely be done in favor of the interests of Ukraine and NATO where the USA plays the party of the ‘leading violin’ in the Alliance. Therefore, Trump's optimistic attitude does not calm me down or lull me personally, but only raises many questions in my mind.

Why President-elect Donald Trump has not commented on the U.S. and the UK missiles’ strikes deep into Russian territory? If he is interested in stopping the aggression of Ukraine and NATO against us, he would have long time ago spoken out against such a move.

There is one more point that I would like to draw attention to. Donald Trump has a highly privileged friend – Elon Musk, who runs his own information and intelligence program Starlink in Ukraine.[1] And it works in the offensive interests of Ukraine against Russia.

Why Donald Trump, if he is sincerely interested in ending the Ukrainian conflict, has not advised Elon Musk to suspend his activity which contributes to the continuation of the crisis and to strengthening the Armed Forces of Ukraine? I even sent a letter to Donald Trump's son with an offer to answer this question. I received no response from him.

In addition, there is something else that worries me about Mr. Donald Trump's policy as the next President. During his last presidential term, six key U.S. military strategies have been published: national security strategy, national defense strategy, nuclear strategy (NPR), missile defense strategy, military space and cyber strategies.

They will certainly be updated when he takes office next January, but their essence will remain intact. And they will also prevent Donald Trump from resolving the Ukrainian crisis. Based on all circumstances outlined earlier, I am not sure that President Trump will take any real steps to resolve the conflict sponsored by the White House during Joe Biden’s presidency.

Q: In conclusion, a few words about how you responded to the Russian Oreshnik hypersonic missile strike on a Ukrainian military-industrial complex facility?

A: As is known, we seriously damaged Yuzhmash machinery plant, but we no longer destroy such targets anymore. However, after that we see that American ATACMS strikes followed on military facilities in the Kursk and Bryansk Regions. For the second time.

I believe that we need to clearly state on behalf of our leadership that every time the USA, the UK or France use long-range missiles against continental Russia – and it does not matter what facilities they strike: civilian or military ones – each time we will multiply our strikes on any other Yuzhmash-type plant by more than two or three times.

That is, we will increase attacks upon the number of critically important facilities on Ukrainian territory that will be hit. The only thing is that the civilians working at such enterprises should be warned beforehand about such strikes and leave the area.

 


[1] In December 2022 SpaceX revealed 'Starshield' satellite project for national security use. While Starlink is designed for consumer and commercial use, Starshield is designed for government use. Starshield will offer a higher level of security than Starlink, featuring "additional high-assurance cryptographic capability to host classified payloads and process data securely, meeting the most demanding government requirements,” according to SpaceX's Starshield page. It will be also used by Ukraine against Russian troops, like Starlink (https://www.spacex.com/starshield).

 

German Foreign Minister On New Arms Control Measures

>>Read the article in Russian<<

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas has published an article in Der Spiegel magazine proposing a rethink of arms control measures to preserve peace in Europe. He points out that new technologies are being used to create weapons and that the line between nuclear and conventional weapons is becoming blurred, before going on to criticise the deployment of Russian missiles in Kaliningrad, although he does not provide any evidence to support his claim and admits that their deployment is not in violation of the INF Treaty.

The German foreign minister argues decisively in favour of the treaty being preserved, despite the US president’s recent public statement that he intends to withdraw from it. Maas believes that abandoning the INF Treaty would undo one of the greatest achievements in the area of disarmament. So, unlike the United States, Germany and its European allies will be pushing for it to remain in force, emphasises the foreign minister.

A key section of Heiko Maas’ article is his four-point proposal to strengthen international security.

He suggests a return to the practice of Europe, Russia and the US exchanging information on arms and arms control mechanisms; the establishment of a comprehensive regime of transparency for missiles and cruise missiles; China’s involvement for greater transparency in arms control matters; and the possible introduction of restrictions on high-speed strike systems and combat robots that could be used in military operations.

The German foreign minister’s initiative shows that Europe is growing uneasy over the United States’ skewed military policy, which could once again lead to the threat of a nuclear missile stand-off in Europe as happened in the 1980s following the NATO Double-Track Decision taken in December 1979.

With regards to the first point in Heiko Maas’ proposal, it would be worth remembering the 15 unresolved arms control issues that the US and other NATO member states have left hanging. These include American tactical nuclear weapons on European soil, Washington’s numerous violations of the INF Treaty involving the use of intermediate-range and shorter-range training missiles to check the effectiveness of its interceptor missile defence systems, the Pentagon’s deployment of the land and sea components of a global anti-missile shield in Europe and the maritime areas surrounding it, NATO’s build-up of substantial general purpose forces and Rapid Deployment Joint Task Forces, and the staging of large-scale military exercises of an offensive nature in many European countries.

To this list should be added the United States’ negative attitude towards both bilateral arms control treaties with Russia and multilateral ones. These include: the ABM Treaty (their unilateral withdrawal); the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (their refusal to ratify); the START III Treaty, the INF Treaty, and the Treaty on Open Skies (their violation); drafts of the international European Security Treaty and the Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space (their refusal to even discuss these drafts); and several other treaties. It should also be mentioned that the United States’ withdrawal from the INF Treaty could completely destroy the painstakingly constructed system of treaties and agreements in place to prevent an arms race. If the German minister is so concerned about strengthening European security, then why does he not say a word about the European Security Treaty, the text of which has been lying ignored on the tables of NATO member states for years, including Germany’s? If it’s no good, then suggest something better.

In this regard, it is unclear exactly what kind of new arms control measures the German foreign minister is talking about when the current arms control agenda has not even been determined.

The second point of Heiko Maas’ proposal on the monitoring of ballistic and cruise missiles cannot be implemented without a specially crafted international treaty mechanism. There are 32 countries around the world capable of developing weapons systems like these, so will he be able to persuade them all to take such a step? The minister does not say.

With regard to possibly widening control over the INF Treaty’s implementation, the reciprocal inspections carried out in connection with it came to an end back in 2001. But how can there be talk of new inspections, whether as part of the INF Treaty or not, if, as of 26 October 2018, the United States has already violated it 95 times by testing its strategic missile defence systems with the real, rather than computer-based, interception of intermediate-range and shorter-range training missiles and intends to carry on violating it? And what about the land- and sea-based nuclear cruise missiles that, at the United States’ initiative, are not covered by existing restrictive military and political measures? There is no mention of these in Heiko Maas’ proposal.

The German foreign minister’s mention of China, meanwhile, is selectively one-sided. Beijing has never been a party to agreements on the limitation or reduction of nuclear weapons. One could just as well raise the issue of ensuring transparency with regard to the existing nuclear missile systems of Great Britain, France and Israel, which all have nuclear assets, while the first two also have strategic nuclear weapons.

Germany should be included on this watch list, since, for many decades now, the country has housed American nuclear bombs capable of carrying out both tactical and strategic missions, as should four other NATO member states that also agreed to host them (Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey). And why not also raise the issue of putting a stop to NATO’s provocative Baltic air-policing mission that has been carried out in the skies over Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia around-the-clock since 2004 and involves the dual-capable aircraft of all three of the West’s nuclear powers, as well as the strike aircraft of the German Luftwaffe?

The German foreign minister’s fourth point regarding hypersonic weapons systems can probably only be considered if there is a global consensus for an increase in mutual trust and respect between states, and only after NATO’s three main nuclear powers have abandoned their offensive nuclear strategies, which are still based on the premise of unconditional offensive nuclear deterrence and the key directive of carrying out the first preventive and pre-emptive nuclear strike against a large number of countries.

Thus, the four ideas put forward by the German foreign minister can only be of interest in a certain context and provided that they contain a sincere and genuine desire to strengthen European security without a build up of surplus arms and large-scale military activities in a forward base area. Such initiatives could attract interest as long as they do not disrupt the legal framework for arms reduction and are implemented on the principle of security for all rather than security for some at the expense of others.

Unfortunately, Heiko Maas’ plan to strengthen arms control is poorly thought out and does not take adequate account of the true state of affairs in this area. His proposal puts the diametrically opposed military and political policies of the United States and Russia on an equal footing internationally and is also unbalanced with regard to China. The individual points, meanwhile, are nothing more than wishful thinking and bear no relation to the actual development of the arms control process currently being reduced to nothing thanks to Washington and its closest NATO allies, including Germany.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin, Source: Oriental Review.

How To Avoid A New War In Europe

There is a rather embarrassing negative perspective for maintaining rational military strategic parity between Russia and USA and Russia and NATO as a whole in the coming decades due to future tremendous expenditures of the USA for modernizing strategic and tactical nuclear forces that will require $ U.S. 1,2-1,7 trillion during next three decades for hammering out a qualitatively new strategic nuclear triad only. Substantial amount of money will be allocated for procurement of the Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS), space-based strike assets and conventional arms as well. No other nation in the world can afford to spend such enormous amount of money.

The problem is complicated by the existing 15 unresolved issues in arms control between Moscow and Washington due to lack of desire of the latter to resolve the most burning issues, like limiting BMDS, taking the U.S. tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) from Europe and refraining from weaponization of outer space, etc.

A potential withdrawal of the USA from the INF Treaty no doubt:

1) will undermine the global strategic equation, push all nuclear-weapon states into a deep-seated mistrust, destroy the NPT regime and prompt all 32 states capable to produce intermediate-range missiles without any limitations;

2) will create a negative domino-style effect that will complicate nuclear arms control, namely:

1.    In military sphere it will block the potential resolution of the nuclear arms deal to be applied to the Korean Peninsula, may bring the U.S. nuclear weapons to Japan and the Republic of Korea, and

2.    In political domain such step will undermine specific solutions at the upcoming 2020 NPT Review Conference and erect unsurmountable obstacles for entry into force of the Treaty on Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

The reality is that the USA has de facto already withdrawn from the INF Treaty by having violated it 95 times since 2001 while testing the efficiency of its BMDS when using dummy (mock) medium and shorter-range missiles, prohibited by the INF Treaty, as intercepted targets. Russian experts believe that they can be converted into nuclear-tipped ballistic and cruise missiles any moment.

There are three questions related to this fact: a) has the USA not destroyed all of them under the 1987 treaty (totally 846)? b) has Washington produced new INF missiles after destroying the old ones, and how many? c) does the Pentagon plan to make them nuclear-tipped?

Therefore, Moscow calls on Washington to ensure full and transparent compliance with INF Treaty.

On the other hand, Russia has not violated the INF Treaty and is not going to be the initiator to torpedo it. During the last 6 years Washington has not tabled any vivid fact that Moscow has ‘violated’ the treaty. The purpose of such U.S. disinformation of the world community is: a) to camouflage its own new INF assets; b) to prompt Moscow to scrap 4 types of Russian missiles that are not covered by the INF Treaty provisions, namely two ICBMs, one operational missile and the newest system named “Avangard”; c) to proliferate the 1987 Treaty to the PRC who is not the party of it; d) to deploy in Europe its new mobile ground-based nuclear-capable medium-range cruise missile in order to repeat the 1979 ‘double-track decision’ of NATO.

The cruise missile designated as 9M729 does not fall into limitations of the Treaty. Other types such as ‘SSC8’ or ‘SSC8-X’ does not exist. The USA has got detailed Russian explanations on this matter.

There is the risk of further intentions of nuclear weapon states to pool back from other international treaties in arms control area. The USA alone has assumed negative stance towards 12 bilateral and multilateral accords in this domain. It has either violated them (e.g., INF and the Open Sky Treaty), or unilaterally withdrawn (from the ABM accord), or refused to ratify them (like CFE-1A and CTBT), or declined to debate (like European Security Treaty and Treaty on Prevention of Arms Race in Outer Space).

The possibilities for using of low-yield nuclear weapons of less than 5 kiloton has sharply increased: there are 14 pretexts of using all kind of nuclear weapons in the current U.S. NPR versus two cases in the contemporary Russian nuclear doctrine. Such doctrine does not have any instructions to use tactical nuclear weapons or ‘low-yield NW’; in does not have any paragraph on ‘escalation of de-escalation” or vice versaCurrent Russia’s nuclear doctrine is rooted on “conditional defensive nuclear deterrence” while the new U.S. one can be labelled as “unconditional offensive nuclear deterrence”. That is a striking difference between them.

Conventional arms race may be characterized by a huge accumulation of conventional arms in the form of stockpiling forward-based assets and conducting a large-scale military drills. In recent years the number of such exercises conducted by NATO have increased two-fold. Many NATO-led initially conventionally military exercises at the end of them are transformed into nuclear-borne drills. Half of them have anti-Russian feature. There will be more NATO forward-deployed troops in the Eastern and Southern Europe. The high-caliber heavy weapons deployments of the transatlantic alliance moving closer to Russia’s doorstep cause concern in Moscow.

The Baltic Air Policing Operation has been uninterruptedly conducted by NATO aircraft, including dual capable fighter-bombers of three Western nuclear powers in the Baltic airspace, since 2004. One more factor: the number of reconnaissance flights of NATO aircraft near Russian borders has increased 10 times – actually, there are such 15-20 reconnaissance aircraft per each week approaching Russian territory from all directions.

The confrontational situation that has emerged during last several years has even worsened due to the continuation of the Cold War that from 2014 has acquired a new image – the Colder War or the Cold War 2.0 – that has five striking differences with the first one.

The world community is witnessing not a new arms race, but rather new three-dimensional arms racesthe nuclear one (it started last century), the newly-born missile defense arms race (it started in 2002 after the demise of the ABM Treaty) and the initial beginning of the outer space arms race (it commenced in 2008 when many nations refused to accept the PAROS Treaty).

Therefore, military confrontation in Europe can start under any pretext – be it a deliberate provocation or unintentional action. But any potential conflict here – either backed by conventional, nuclear and BMDS capabilities – can evolve into severe armed conflict between NATO and Russia that will be very difficult to contain. No doubt, it will bring a devastating effect to this densely-populated continent.

What are the practical suggestions how to avoid such a gloomy and highly unwelcomed scenarios?

Special Arms Control Summit involving NATO, the OSCE, the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has to be convened. It has to declare a legally-binding no-first use of nuclear weapons pledge.  Such Summit should stop spreading of hostile information and painting each other black. To convene such Summit is a challenging task. It is not ‘a snap-type’ arrangement. But nevertheless the idea is knocking the door leading to the European security.

It is also expedient to reach an agreement on limiting the total number of strategic BMD interceptors and their geographic deployments. The U.S. operational BMDS bases in Romania and Poland that have both defensive and offensive capabilities have to be closed down comletely.

It is also vital to reach an accord not to field for more than 24 hours any kind of nuclear weapons, both strategic and tactical, outside national territory of the nuclear weapon states; to sign a new CFE Treaty applied to Europe covering the same five types of heavy weapons specified in the earlier CFE accords, and to cancel the Baltic Air Policing Operation for good.

It is important to reach a multilateral treaty banning space-based striking weapons in outer space.

Russia and Europe do not need any kind of arms race or any type of war – be it limited or all-out one.

So, why not to reach arms control agreements between Russia and Europe separately from the USA in order to maintain stable European security on completely different footing?

Only political will is required.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin, Source: OrientalReview

Istanbul talks. Second round: major results

 

June 3, 2025

 

The second round of the direct talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations that have been held again in Istanbul on June 2nd 2025 lasted for 1 hour and 4 minutes. Both delegations managed to resolve only humanitarian issues, and have exchanged their respective political memoranda on ending the hostilities.

Humanitarian issues once again

Russia and Ukraine once again have agreed on their largest prisoner exchange to date. Moscow will return to Ukraine the bodies of 6,000 its soldiers and officers who have been killed in action (KIA), and have been kept in Russia in refrigerators. Ukraine has not disclosed any information about how many Russian GIs it would be ready to hand over. Moscow does not know this figure.

Additionally, all POWs under 25, and soldiers having serious wounds or sickness will be exchanged on the principle ‘all for all’.

Moscow has proposed a temporary ceasefire for two to three days in several parts of the frontline to facilitate the collection of soldiers’ bodies and prevent potential outbreaks of disease in a summer time. Though the Ukrainian side has promised to review the proposal on short notice, the off-hand reaction of the former Ukrainian president to it was rather rude.

Russia and Ukraine also have agreed to establish medical commissions to help create exchange lists for severely injured soldiers without the need to wait for high-level political decisions, but bringing about the swaps regularly in a routine, simplified manner.

Russia demanded Ukraine stop false ‘child kidnapping’ claims

The two teams agreed that all children evacuated from combat zones are to be reunited with their families as soon as their parents or relatives are identified. Russia reminded that it has returned a total of 101 children to Ukraine since the escalation of the second phase of the Ukrainian aggression in February 2022. So far, the Ukrainian side handed over 22 children to Russia.

Second round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, in IstanbulThe reunification of children with their families is a matter of honor for Russia, the head of Moscow’s delegation and a presidential aide, Vladimir Medinsky commented on Kiev’s demands to return Ukrainian minors that have allegedly been ‘abducted’ by Russia.

Figures voiced by Ukraine at various international platforms, including the UNO and the OSCE, have nothing to do with reality, top Kremlin negotiator announced, adding that his team received a list of names of children Kiev wants to be returned. Russia denied the rumors that it has kidnapped 1.5 million or 200,000 or 20,000 Ukrainian kids. Ukrainian delegation has handed over to the Russian negotiators the list containing only 339 such names.

This list shows, unfortunately, that the Ukrainian authorities have intentionally staged a show, Medinsky outlined. “In reality, we are talking about dozens of children – none of whom were abducted. Not a single one. These are children saved by our soldiers, at the risk of their own lives, pulled from combat zones and evacuated.” Russia is looking for their parents, and when their parents are found, it will return these children, he added. In his words, “This shameful PR campaign must be stopped.”

 

Comparing two submitted memoranda

Russia handed over to the Ukrainian side its memorandum at the talks in Istanbul, which consists of three parts. Ukrainian delegation promised to study it in a week. It looks like that these two drafts will be tackled at the third round of talks between Kiev and Moscow to be set up later.

The first part of the Russian draft is how to achieve real long-term peace settlement. The second section describes what steps should be taken to make a full-fledged ceasefire possible. The third portion sets out the sequence of some practical steps and the timing of their implementation.

The main provisions of the memorandum are: international legal recognition of the entry of Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republic, Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions (Oblasts) into Russia;  proclamation of Ukraine’s neutrality, its refusal to join military alliances; a ban on military activities of other states in Ukraine; nuclear-free status of Ukraine (no transit, no deployment); setting the maximum number of AFU; stopping foreign military aid to Kiev; Kiev’s refusal of making of sabotage acts against Russia; lifting of economic sanctions imposed against Russia; ensuring the rights and freedoms of the Russian-speaking population; prohibiting the glorification of Nazism and neo-Nazism; phased restoration of diplomatic and economic relations with Ukraine; mutual waiver of claims in connection with damage inflicted from military operations; addressing issues related to family reunification and displaced persons; presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine no later than 100 days after the lifting of martial law.

The current Russian memorandum also emphasizes that the peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine must be approved by a “legally binding resolution of the UN Security Council.” Only after that, the ratification, entry into force and implementation of the peace treaty is expected.

Ukrainian draft memorandum has not specified any consent with all these provisions. A reminder: during the 2022 negotiations with Russia Ukraine agreed with its neutrality and non-nuclear status formulated in the accord initialed by the heads of the two delegations, but not accepted by Zelensky at all.

What are the next steps?

The Ukrainian delegation has suggested holding the next direct meeting with Russian negotiators before the end of June (somewhere between June 20th and 30th), Rustem Umerov, Ukrainian Defense Minister has told newsmen after the talks.

Moscow has not commented on the exact dates of the third round. But no doubt, it will attend it and other meetings if they are needed.

It is clear that Kiev still wishes to join the transatlantic Alliance. The upcoming NATO Summit should express its clear-cut statement on this issue by stating that the former states of the Soviet Union, including Georgia and Ukraine, must retain their neutral, non-aligned status for the sake of maintaining equal and stable security in Europe. Unfortunately, NATO chieftains are still in favor of admitting Ukraine into its ranks somewhere in the future. There are even voices to help Ukrainian junta to recreate nuclear weapons that Ukraine possessed in the framework of the USSR or to share with it Western nuclear capabilities and their means of delivery.

The stumbling block at the future talks between Kiev and Moscow is a multifaceted gimmick.

On one hand, the West (the EU and NATO) is too critical to Russia blaming it for everything it has not done.

But on the other, the West is very candid with Ukraine: it incites Zelensky to continue fighting, generously stockpiles him with deadly weapons, intelligence and military experts/operators. The Western nations have hammered out nearly 30,000 different sectoral and individual sanctions against Russia, but they have not invented at least a single modest sanction versus Ukraine – de facto and de jure aggressor and terrorist state in Europe.

The West is lusting for a continuation of an all-out aggression against Russians living in Ukraine and against Russia as a whole. Soon after the second stage of the Russo-Ukrainian talks has ended in Istanbul, Zelensky publicly articulated his master plan to flare up war-mongerism in Europe.

If NATO and the EU do not reconsider their deadlocked strategy aimed at encouraging the barbaric aggressor, the war in that part of the world will go on endlessly despite many rounds of polite negotiations.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Jeddah talks: a trap with dangerous consequences for Russia

 

March 12, 2025

The overall results of the US-Ukraine official talks held on March 11 in Jeddah are still intentionally concealed by the two sides. Only very short points have been disclosed.

“Ukraine expressed readiness to accept the US proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties, and which is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by the Russian Federation,” the joint US-Ukrainian statement reads.

During the meeting, the delegations discussed long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said without providing further detail. But why these guarantees have been hammered out for Ukraine only – the attacker and the intruder? Why not simultaneously to Russia – who is a real victim of 11-years old Ukrainian aggression and intrusion?

The meeting coincided with total resumption of the US striking military supplies & sharing sensitive intelligence information with Kiev will mean undermining Russia's national security interests as a victim of a combined direct Ukrainian/NATO aggression since 2014 & killing more Russian citizens by the US and European lethal weapons generously offered to illegal Kiev regime that bogged down into documented war crimes.

Such double support was unblocked after Kiev who is suffering huge losses on all fronts agreed to Washington’s idea for an “immediate” 30-day ceasefire with Russia. Is it acceptable? No. It should not be taken as a practical remedy.


A one-month truce is a booby trap implanted by the United States and Ukraine for undermining Russian military victories at sea, in the air and on the ground. Russian Armed Forces have managed to liberate its historic lands, illegally given to Ukraine by Soviet leaders earlier. They also saved Russian-speaking population.


 

Therefore, the EU has provided it with prompt and full support. It opens the way not only to the continuation of the direct aggression of Ukraine and NATO against Russia as a victim of united Ukraine/NATO/the EU aggression, but also to its qualitative escalation. In the light of new military-political environment, the USA, NATO, the EU and Ukraine will prolong such war over and over again. It will be easy for such Ukrainian leadership.

Some experts claim that the Jeddah agreement would open the door for Ukrainian admission into NATO and pave the way for the EU/NATO military contingents to be deployed in Ukraine under the cover of “peacekeepers’ with the aim on consolidation of the current ultra-nationalist regime entrenched in Kiev who is seeking to intensify the war with Russia.

Washington has said it will communicate these ‘Jeddah’ proposals to Russia shortly. Possibly, on March 13-14, 2025.

Moscow has yet to issue an official response to the statement following the US-Ukraine talks in Jeddah. President Vladimir Putin has previously indicated that any temporary ceasefire deal is unacceptable for the Russian side, arguing it would only allow Ukrainian Armed Forces to regroup and rearm on a new basis. The Russian leadership has previously signaled that the deal would only benefit Kiev and it’s the EU/NATO backers.


By now, the overall results of the US-Ukraine Jeddah talks – what have been announced so far – are considered by many experts in Moscow as ‘Minsk-3 accord’. They suspect that the meeting in Saudi Arabia laid a foundation for continuation of a combined Ukrainian/NATO aggression against Russia, carefully and intentionally arranged in 2014.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Key Unresolved Issues in the WMD Sphere

In terms of the qualitatively new buildup of weapons of mass destruction, each century has its own specific brand name. While the last century was labeled “the nuclear arms age,” the current century could be characterized as “the missile defense age” and “the space-based weapons age.” These three interlinked factors unfortunately define the current and future military-political environment on the globe.

Many experts believed that after the signing of seven major nuclear arms treaties by the two nuclear powers during the first phase of the Cold War, the elimination of their strategic offensive nuclear arms would be continued, and gradually include the other seven member nations of the “Nuclear Club.”

But they were mistaken: the process of reduction of nuclear weapons has stalled with no immediate chance to be resumed either on a bilateral or multilateral basis.

The rather alarming reality is that while during the last century there were more nuclear warheads in the hands of two nuclear giants who wished to reduce the chances of all-out nuclear war, today there is the opposite tendency. While the number of nuclear arms has been reduced by 80% during the past several decades, the chances that nuclear weapons will be used have increased because the threshold for using them has been lowered.

There are several explanations why this has happened.

Nuclear thinking still prevails in many nations. The fact is that 122 countries have supported the Nuclear Weapons Elimination Treaty since last summer. On the other hand, nearly 70 nations preferred to stay out, including all nine de jure and de facto nuclear-weapon states. Seven nuclear nations are not participating in nuclear arms control. Tactical nuclear weapons have never been the subject of official talks. Several nuclear nations have offensive nuclear doctrines. One nation has extended its nuclear deterrence strategy. There is a number of nuclear-free zones, but not in the Middle East.

There is a concept of “escalate to de-escalate,” that is, to de-escalate a regional non-nuclear conflict with the help of nuclear weapons. There are voices arguing not to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, and to resume nuclear testing in Nevada. A new pattern of military exercises has been introduced – transforming drills – whereby conventional maneuvers are enhanced by nuclear force. It has become a routine practice for high-ranking U.S. civilian officials who would be involved in the national decision-making process to take part in computerized nuclear war-gaming organized by the top military officers responsible for the deployment of nuclear weapons.

President Donald Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama, cancelled a ‘minimum nuclear deterrence’ clause, and ushered in plans to modernize tactical nuclear weapons, and to hammer out a qualitatively new strategic nuclear triad comprised of the B-21 Raider strategic bomber, the Minuteman-IV ICBM, and the Columbia SSBN. This new strategic triad will begin to be implemented very soon, in 2026.

From 2017 till 2046, it will require $ 1.2 trillion, or $1.7 trillion adjusted for inflation. Neither of other nuclear-armed states can afford such an expense. It is several times higher than the money spent on nuclear forces by the all the other countries that possess nuclear weapons combined.

The fate of the 1987 INF Treaty is under very serious threat, and not by Russia. Vladimir Putin has repeated publicly over the past year, and as recently as October 2017, that the Kremlin would not be the first country to withdraw from the treaty. On the other hand, Russia is concerned that the Pentagon, while formally committing to compliance with the INF Treaty, has since 2001 violated this agreement 92 times by using mock ballistic missiles of ranges prohibited by the 1987 accord as target vehicles to test the efficiency of the BMD system.

The U.S. Congress in its reconciled version of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act expressed clearly that the United States could suspend the INF Treaty in whole or in part. The recent decision by the Congress to develop a new ground-launched medium-range cruise missile will be an additional step in breaching the INF Treaty. This missile would be deployed in Europe by the U.S. Army, or transferred to key NATO allies who are not parties to this accord.

There is another factor that sometimes remains unnoticed. Half of NATO member states are involved in the year-round, 24-hour, 7-days-a-week Baltic Air Policing operations. These began in 2004 in the skies of the three Baltic states, with the participation of dual-capable aircraft (DCAs) from the three Western nuclear powers, which can carry either conventional or nuclear weapons.

The alliance’s DCA will be modernized, with the dual-capable F-35 Joint Strike Fighter eventually becoming the backbone of NATO’s theater-based nuclear deterrent capability. The countries that base these forces are being encouraged to upgrade their DCA as soon as possible. But Europe does not need foreign nuclear weapons.

There is a proposal to resurrect the nuclear capability of the Tomahawk sea-based cruise missile – known as TLAM-N, or Tomahawk land-attack missile nuclear – which was removed from U.S. Navy warships in the early 1990s and whose nuclear warheads were retired a decade ago. Today its proponents maintain that a revived TLAM-N would bolster the extended nuclear deterrence in the Middle East, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region.

The development of the nuclear-tipped air-launched Long-Range Stand-off Missile has already started. There are voices in favor of exploring ways to reinforce the nuclear deterrent by developing a nuclear version of the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM), and deploying low-yield nuclear-tipped missiles and nuclear free-fall bombs delivered by the newest B-21 strategic bombers and by the F-35 joint-strike fighter.

Moscow cannot ignore the fact that the United States is on track to complete the life-extension program for the nuclear B61 bombs on schedule in 2024, or even earlier. With its accuracy, reliability, and low-yield option of 0.3 kilotons, the B61-12 and its F-35 delivery platform will provide a substantial capability to complement the U.S. central strategic and tactical nuclear systems in Europe, the Middle East, the Gulf area, and the Asia-Pacific region.

The United States and NATO are building up their general-purpose forces, which include heavy weapons, and conduct large-scale military exercises of an offensive nature in regions bordering the territory of Russia and its allies. Since 2014, NATO has expanded its military activity in the immediate proximity to Russia by five times, and aerial reconnaissance near Russia, by ten times.

Besides worrisome changes in the security environment, there are many elements of continuity in the U.S. nuclear policy that could be incorporated in the updated Nuclear Posture Review to be released later this year or early 2018. It appears that it will not change U.S. general strategic nuclear goals. It may lower the bar for nuclear weapons deployment and open the door to developing “more usable” nuclear warheads.

Because of these factors, there is very little hope that the U.S.-Russian New START treaty (START-3 in Russian political vocabulary) will be extended for five years after it is set to expire in 2021. The Newest START/START-4 will seemingly wait for the same outcome.

Several factors may create formidable obstacles for the extension of New START or the pursuit of Newest START/START-4:

Factor 1. Continuation of unlimited and unrestrained proliferation of U.S. BMD interceptors. This problem could arise especially when the ratio between U.S. BMD interceptors and Russian strategic offensive arms delivery vehicles reaches a proportion of 3:1, and the ratio between the U.S. interceptors and Russian strategic warheads will be 2:1 (the AAD/BMD Patriot missile system are not counted here). If it happens, it will mean the end of strategic stability. The lower the ceiling of Russia’s SOA and the greater the number of the U.S. BMD interceptors that can hit them, the greater will be the American temptation to launch a first nuclear strike.

Factor 2. American tactical nuclear weapons deployment in four European states and the Asian part of Turkey offers no chance to start negotiations involving TNW – be it tactical arms reduction talks or tactical arms limitation talks, or even limited TNW confidence- and transparency-building measures. There is still geographic disparity in the TNW emplacement of the two sides: by the mid-1990s Moscow had pulled back all its TNW inventory to its territory, while the USA had not.

Factor 3. A new factor linked to the permanent basing of U.S. heavy strategic bombers in Europe, Asia, and the Asia-Pacific region. They fly over the Baltic Sea and land in Estonia.

So, after the New START aggregate ceilings will be met next February, Russia will have effectively exhausted its options for continuing negotiations exclusively with the American side to reduce nuclear SOA on a bilateral basis. It is obvious: all nuclear states should be involved in a corresponding process of further negotiations on downsizing their nuclear forces. First of all, this should pertain to Britain and France having reciprocal nuclear commitments. Their combined nuclear assets should be taken into account in order to ensure that they do not outweigh Russia’s nuclear potential.

President Donald Trump has inherited an “unconditional offensive nuclear deterrence” strategy that allows for a massive or a limited first nuclear strike on Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. That is quite possible. Besides that, currently, Moscow and Washington have 16 unresolved arms control issues souring their relations.

In this context, it is expedient to recall that the entire U.S. ICBM arsenal is in full operational readiness (99.7%); nearly 50% of U.S. SSBNs are sailing the world oceans, ready to fire nuclear SLBMs; and around 25% of heavy strategic bombers are on full combat alert. The U.S Air Force is preparing to put these bombers back on 24-hour ready alert, a status not seen since 1991.

The existing U.S. system of launching nuclear arms by a single person has evolved more through tradition and precedent than by laws. The problem is so alarming that a number of U.S. Congressmen wish to limit the authority of any president to make a unilateral decision to use nuclear weapons at his own discretion.

The same practice exists in the DPRK. So, the leaders of these two countries can order a first nuclear strike against each other’s nation.

It was not serendipity that on November 14, 2017 the U.S. Senate held its first hearing in 41 years on the president’s authority to launch nuclear weapons. The essence of such an authority is that the order could be given initially any time and against any nation. The crux of the matter is that there are no checks on the president’s authority to start any type of nuclear war – limited or large-scale. A single verbal direction to the Pentagon war room will be sufficient for this action.

This issue is so important for the USA that on November 18, 2017 four-star General John Hyten, the head of U.S. Strategic Command, said he would refuse to execute an order from President Trump to launch a nuclear weapon if he believed it to be illegal. In January 2017, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden stated that it was hard to envision a plausible scenario in which the first use of nuclear weapons by the USA “would be necessary or make sense”.

At the same time, speaking in Canberra in July 2017, the U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander, Vice Admiral Scott Swift, admitted that he was ready to deliver a first nuclear attack on the People’s Republic of China “next week”, if the President of the United States would give him such an order.

Russia has a different nuclear authorization system. Three persons communicating together, by undisputable consensus, can launch nuclear weapons: the President, the Defense Minister, and the General Chief of Staff.

On January 24, 2017, identical versions of a bill titled the Restricting First-Use of Nuclear Weapons Act of 2017 were introduced in both chambers of Congress. The measure would prohibit the president from using the Armed Forces to conduct a first-use nuclear strike without permission from the Congress. Domestically, it is up to the U.S. lawmakers and military to modify the existing practice and responsibly limit presidential authority to order nuclear arms launch against any nation.

But, internationally, before any constraints are imposed on presidential authority to press the nuclear button it is expedient to enact the no-first use (NFU) pledge among all nuclear armed nations as soon as possible.

There are four major reasons for that. First, during the Cold War the USA had three false alarms, and during one of those it narrowly averted a nuclear catastrophe. Second, after 1945 the USA has intended to resort to nuclear weapons eight times, but luckily has not used them. Third, there is a great risk, if an incoming non-nuclear cruise or ballistic missile is interpreted by the opposite number to be a nuclear-tipped vehicle. Fourth, the window of opportunity to employ nuclear weapons in the recent years has been widened.

The existing nuclear missiles de-targeting agreements between Russia and three Western nuclear-weapons states cannot substitute the NFU pledge.

On November 16, 2017 William J. Perry, the former U.S. secretary of defense, and retired General James E. Cartwright, the former vice chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, observed in the Washington Post that “today’s greatest danger is not a Russian “bolt from the blue” massive nuclear attack, but rather a U.S. blunder – that is, the United States might accidentally stumble into nuclear war.” Perhaps for this reason, Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the monthly magazine Arms Control Today, noted in December 2017, that “the fate of millions of people should not depend on the good judgment of one person…”

Last year President Vladimir Putin urged all nuclear weapon states to display responsibility and not to use nuclear weapons that will lead to the end of the civilization. He clearly stated that Russia stands for universal nuclear disarmament. In his words, even nuclear sable rattling is the most dangerous act.

Before the Nuclear Weapons Elimination Treaty is welcomed by the entire world community, the universal NFU notion should be implemented as soon as possible as a step facilitating the creation of a global nuclear zero option.

Written by Vladimir Kozin, Source: New defence order strategy

Key unresolved issues in the WMD sphere

Local and International Perceptions of Security Threats in the MENA Region

In terms of WMD Russia has advocated and will support strengthening regional security and stability in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region which is very close to Russia and has deep-seated historic political, commercial, cultural and spiritual ties.

To this end Moscow will seek to ensure full implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to settle the issue around the Iranian nuclear program based on the UN Security Council resolution 2231 of July 20, 2015 and relevant IAEA Board of Governors decisions. No doubt, Russia will assist this process in every possible way, because a U-turn approach could produce too many negative risks and challenges.

It would be extremely irrelevant to tear off this deal by the USA, first, because Iran is operating within the limits imposed on its nuclear activities in the 2015 Vienna deal;second, because it is a multilateral arrangement stamped by the UN Security Council;third, because ballistic missiles are not in the scope of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

The Russian Federation will support the notion to proclaim the Middle East as a WMD free-zone, which should encompass national nuclear weapons of Israel and the U.S. nuclear weapons deployed in the Asian part of Turkey after the Iranian nuclear deal was reached in 2015. It is high time to intensify debates on the implementation of this proposal shared by the majority of the Middle East nations and by Russia as a nuclear power. There are two non-governmental draft treaties on the Middle East WMD free-zone that could be debated, improved and shaped into an official accord.

There are some additional factors that have direct bearing on the MENA region and the globe at large.

In terms of the qualitatively new buildup of WMD each century has its own specific brand name. While last century was labeled as ‘a nuclear arms age’, the current century can be additionally characterized as ‘missile defense age’ and as ‘space-based weapons’ age’. These three interlinked factors unfortunately shape up the current and future military-political environment on the globe.

The positive feature is that two classic types of WMD – chemical and biological – have been almost entirely eliminated, except CW agents that have been frequently used by pseudo-caliphate ‘Islamic State’ in Syria. It is the setback that after persuading Damascus to get rid of CW agents under international control the world community failed to warn the armed terrorist factions in Syria not to use them, and failed to urge the producers of CW precursors to supply them to the quasi ‘Islamic State’.

Many experts believed that after signing seven major nuclear arms treaties during the first phase of the Cold War between two nuclear powers the elimination of their SOA or strategic offensive nuclear arms will be continued and gradually include other seven nations-members of the ‘Nuclear Club’.

But they have been mistaken: the nuclear WMD reduction process has stalled, with no immediate chances to be resumed either on bilateral or on multilateral basis.

There is a rather alarming reality that while last century there have been more nuclear warheads in the hands of two nuclear giants who wished to reduce the chances to start an all-out nuclear war, today there is a reversed tendency: while the number of nuclear arms have drastically reduced by 80 percent during several decades the chances for employment of nuclear weapons have increased due to lowering the threshold for using them.

There are several explanations of why it has happened.

Nuclear thinking is still prevailing in many nations. The fact: 122 countries in the world have supported the Nuclear Weapons Elimination Treaty opened for signature last summer. But, on the other hand, nearly 70 nations preferred to stay out, including all nine de jure and de facto nuclear-weapon states. Seven nuclear nations are still out of nuclear arms control. Tactical nuclear weapons have never been the subject of official talks. Several nuclear nations have offensive nuclear doctrines. One nation has extended nuclear deterrence strategy. There a number of nuclear-free zones, but not in the Middle East.

There is a concept of ‘de-escalation of escalation’ that is to de-escalate any regional non-nuclear conflagration with the help of nuclear weapons. There are voices not to ratify the CTBT and to resume nuclear testing in Nevada. A new pattern of military exercises has been introduced – transforming drills – when conventional maneuvers are enhanced by nuclear force. It has become a routine practice when the American high-ranking civilian officials involved in a decision-making process on a nationwide scale are invited to take part in the computerized nuclear war-gaming arranged by the top military men responsible for employment of nuclear weapons.

President Donald Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama has cancelled a ‘minimum nuclear deterrence’ clause, ushered in plans to modernize tactical nuclear weapons and to hammer out a qualitatively new strategic nuclear triad comprised of strategic bomber B-21 Raider, ICBM Minuteman-IV and SSBN Columbia. The creation of such new strategic triad will start very soon – from 2026.

From 2017 till 2046 it will require US $ 1,2 trillion in constant dollars or 1,7 trillion with the inflation correction. This amount of money is unaffordable for any other nuclear weapons state. It is several times higher than the money spent on nuclear forces by the rest of nuclear arms possessors combined.

The fate of the 1987 INF Treaty is under very serious threat to be scrapped, and not by Russia. It has been repeated publicly by Vladimir Putin during last year and in October 2017 that the Kremlin would not be the first to do this. Russia is concerned that, on the other hand, while formally committing its compliance with the INF Treaty, since 2001 the Pentagon have violated this arrangement 92 times while using mock ballistic missiles of all ranges prohibited by the 1987 accord as target vehicles to test the efficiency of the BMD system.

The U.S. Congress in its reconciled version of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act expressed clear sense that the USA could suspend the operation of the INF Treaty in whole or in part. The recent decision by the Congress to develop a new ground-launched medium-range cruise missile will be an extra step in breaching the INF Treaty. It will be deployed in Europe by the U.S. Army or to be transferred to key NATO allies who are not parties to this accord.

There is another factor which sometimes remains unnoticed. Half of NATO member states are involved in the year-round, 24 hours, 7 days a week the Baltic Air Policing operations that have started in 2004 in the skies of three Baltic states where DCA or dual-capable aircraft from the three Western nuclear powers take part and can carry either conventional or nuclear weapons.

The alliance’s DCA will be modernized, with the dual-capable F-35 Joint Strike Fighter eventually becoming the backbone of NATO’s theater-based nuclear deterrent capability. The basing countries are encouraged to upgrade their DCA as soon as possible.

There is an idea to resurrect the nuclear capability of the Tomahawk sea-based cruise missile – known as TLAM-N or Tomahawk land-attack missile nuclear– which was removed from U.S. Navy warships in the early 1990s and whose nuclear warheads have been retired a decade ago. Today its proponents maintain that a revived TLAM-N would bolster extended nuclear deterrence in the Middle East, Europe and Asia-Pacific.

The development of nuclear-tipped air-launched Long-Range Stand-off Missile has already started. There are voices exploring ways of reinforcing the nuclear deterrent in favor of developing a nuclear version of the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM), and deploying low-yield nuclear-tipped missiles and nuclear free-fall bombs to be delivered by the newest B-21 strategic bombers and by JSFs F-35.

Moscow cannot neglect the fact that the United States is to complete the life extension program for the nuclear B61 bombs by 2024, as scheduled or earlier. With its accuracy, reliability, and low-yield option 0,3 kt the B61-12 and its F-35 delivery platform will provide a substantial capability to complement the U.S. central strategic and tactical nuclear systems in Europe, the Middle East, the Gulf area, and in the Asia-Pacific region.

The United States and NATO’s buildup of their general-purpose forces, which include heavy weapons, and conduct large-scale military exercises of an offensive nature in regions bordering the territory of Russia and its allies. Since 2014, NATO has expanded the military activity in the immediate proximity to Russia by five times and aerial reconnaissance near it ten times as much.

Besides worrisome changes in the security environment, there are many elements of continuity in the U.S. nuclear policy that could be incorporated in the updated Nuclear Posture Review to be released later this year or early 2018. It looks like that it will not change the U.S. general strategic nuclear goals. It can lower the threshold for nuclear use and open the door to developing “more usable” nuclear warheads.

Due to all these factors there is a very little hope that the New START between the USA and Russia (or START-3 in Russian political vocabulary) will be extended for extra five years after it will finally expire in 2021. The Newest START/START-4 will seemingly wait for the same outcome.

There are several factors that can create formidable obstacles en route towards the New START extension or forging the Newest START/START-4:

Factor 1. Continuation of unlimited and unrestrained proliferation of the U.S. BMD interceptors. The problem could arise especially when the ratio between U.S. BMD interceptors and Russian strategic offensive arms’ delivery vehicles will reach a proportion of 3:1, and the ration between the U.S. interceptors and Russian strategicwarheads will be 2:1 (the AAD/BMD Patriot missile system are not counted here). If it happens, there will be the end of strategic stability. The lower the ceiling of Russia’s SOA and the greater the number of the U.S. BMD interceptors that can hit them, the greater will be the American temptation to launch a first nuclear strike.

Factor 2. American tactical nuclear weapons’ deployment in four European states and the Asian part of Turkey offers no chances to start any negotiations involving TNW – be it tactical arms reduction talks or tactical arms limitation talks or even limited TNW confidence- and transparency-building measures. There is still geographic disparity in the TNW emplacement of the two sides: by mid 1990s Moscow has pulled back all its TNW inventory to its territory, while the USA has not.

Factor 3. Actually a new factor linked with permanent fielding of the U.S. heavy strategic bombers in Europe, Asia, and the Asia-Pacific region. They fly over the Baltic Sea and land in Estonia.

So, after the New START aggregate ceilings will be met next February, Russia will have effectively exhausted its options for continuing negotiations exclusively with the American side to reduce nuclear SOA on a bilateral basis. It is obvious: all nuclear states should be involved in a corresponding process of further negotiations leading to downsizing their nuclear forces. First of all, this should pertain to Britain and France having reciprocal nuclear commitments. Their combined nuclear assets should be taken into account in order to ensure that it does not outweigh Russia’s nuclear potential.

President Donald Trump has inherited ‘unconditional offensive nuclear deterrence’ strategy allowing either to deliver a massive or a limited first nuclear strike on Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. That is quite possible. Currently, Moscow and Washington have 16 unresolved arms control issues souring their relations.

In this context it is expedient to remind that the entire U.S. ICBMs are in full operational readiness (99,7 percent), there are nearly 50 percent of all its SSBNs sailing in the World Oceans ready to fire nuclear SLBMs, and around 25 percent of heavy strategic bombers are on full combat alert. The U.S Air Force is preparing to put these bombers back on 24 hour ready alert, a status not seen after 1991.

The existing U.S. system of launching nuclear arms by a single person has more evolved through tradition and precedent than by laws. The problem is so alarming that a number of the U.S. Congressmen wish to limit the authority of any President who can make a unilateral decision to use nuclear weapons at his own discretion.

It was not serendipity that on November 14, 2017 the U.S. Senate held its first hearing in 41 years on the President’s authority to launch nuclear weapons. The essence of such authority is that the order could be given initially any time and against any nation. The crux of the matter is that there are no checks on the President’s nuclear authority to start any type of nuclear war – limited or a large-scale war. A single verbal direction to the Pentagon war room will be sufficient for this action.

This issue is so important for the USA that on November 18, 2017 four-star General John Hyten, the head of the U.S. Strategic Command said he would refuse to execute an order from President Donald Trump to launch a nuclear weapon if he believed its use was illegal. In January 2017 Joseph Biden, U.S. Vice President has stated that it was hard to envision a plausible scenario in which the first use of nuclear weapons by the USA “would be necessary or make sense”.

At the same time speaking in Canberra July 2017 the U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander, Vice Admiral Scott Swift admitted that he was ready to deliver a first nuclear blow on the People’s Republic of China “next week”, if the President of the United States gives such an order to him.

Russia has different nuclear authorization system. Three persons communicating together, by undisputable consensus, can launch nuclear weapons: namely the President, the Defense Minister and the General Chief of Staff.

On January 24, 2017, identical versions of a bill titled the Restricting First-Use of Nuclear Weapons Act of 2017 were introduced in both chambers of Congressprohibiting the President from using the Armed Forces to conduct a first-use nuclear strike without a permission given by Congress. Nationally, it is up to the U.S. lawmakers and military to modify the existing practice and responsibly restrict Presidential authority to order nuclear arms launch against any nation.

But, internationally, before any constraints are imposed on presidential authority to press a nuclear button it expedient to enact the no-first use (NFU) pledge between all nuclear armed nations as soon as possible.

There are four major reasons for that. First, during the Cold War the USA had three false alarms, and on one of those it narrowly averted a nuclear catastrophe. Second,after 1945 the USA has intended to resort to nuclear weapons eight times, but luckily it has not used them. Third, there is a great risk, if the incoming non-nuclear cruise or ballistic missile is interpreted by the opposite number as a nuclear-tipped vehicle.Fourth, the window of opportunity to employ nuclear weapons in the recent years has been widely opened.

The existing nuclear missiles’ de-targeting agreements between Russia and three Western nuclear-weapons states cannot substitute the NFU pledge.

On November 16, 2017 William J.Perry, the U.S. ex-Defense Secretary, and retired General James E. Cartwright, former Vice Chairman, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, have observed in the Washington Post that today’s danger is not a Russia’s ‘bolt from the blue’ massive nuclear attack, but rather the U.S. blunder – that is the USA might accidentally stumble into nuclear war. Probably, for this reason Daryl G. Kimball, Executive Director of the monthly magazine Arms Control Today, noted in December 2017:“The fate of millions of people should not depend on the good judgment of one person …”.

Last year President Vladimir Putin urged all nuclear weapon states to display responsibility and not to use nuclear weapons that will lead to the end of the civilization. He clearly stated that Russia stands for universal nuclear disarmament. In his words, even nuclear sabre rattling is the most dangerous act.

Before the Nuclear Weapons Elimination Treaty is welcomed by the entire world community, the universal NFU notion should be implemented as soon as possible as a step facilitating the creation of a global nuclear zero option.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Kiev has torpedoed ‘Energy truce’

March 25, 2025

Kiev does not want to honor ‘energy truce’

Many observers noted positively that ex-president Volodymyr Zelensky’s statement at a news conference on March 19, 2025 where he backed the US proposed pause in Ukrainian attacks on Russian targets. He claimed that he and President Donald Trump discussed the issue of proliferation a ceasefire accord “on energy and other civilian infrastructure” in their phone call. Zelensky even used the phrase: it would be “most likely” to apply the US initiative to “energy facilities” belonging to Ukraine and Russia.

“One of the first steps toward fully ending the war could be ending strikes on energy and other civilian infrastructure,” Zelensky later wrote on X social network after his call with the American president. “I supported this step, and Ukraine confirmed that we are ready to implement it.”

It would be better if President Donald Trump convinced him to formulate his statement not to attack Russian energy assets into a written form. However, such a logical step has not been made till now.

Despite these promises, Ukrainian attacks on energy facilities and critical infrastructure in Russia continued later the same day when the vague promise ‘most likely’ has been articulated by ex-Ukrainian president.


       Undeniable facts recorded in several spots in Russia between March 19-25 proved that the phrase “most likely” used by Zelensky at the news conference had a foggy meaning – not incorporated on a paper as a firm political commitment


It would be expedient that NATO and the EU should publicly appeal to former Ukrainian president Volodymir Zelensky not to attack Russian energy facilities, including nuclear power plants (NPP) – taking into account that Russia is abstaining from shelling Ukrainian energy assets, including NPP since the Ukrainian aggression started against Donbass since April 14, 2014.

The score about damaged energy targets between Ukraine-Russia: 5:0

The Ukrainian Armed Forces:

  • on March 19 hit an oil depot Kavkazskaya in Russia’s Krasnodar Region;
  • on March 21 blew up a gas metering station near Sudzha in Kursk Region in such a way that it will take two years to repair it;
  • on March 22 attacked operational gas-distribution station at Valuika, Belgorod Region;
  • on March 23 used drones against operational Glebovskoye gas condensate field in Crimea;
  •   on March 24 attacked by UAVs functional Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station belonging to the Caspian International Pipeline Consortium, Krasnodar Region.

Thus, Ukraine has violated the ‘energy truce’ suggested by President Donald Trump. Despite the statements made by Zelensky, including those announced publicly, the Kiev regime continues to plan, prepare, and conduct attacks targeting energy infrastructure, including the international one, situated on the territory of the Russian Federation.


Food for thought:

Can the current leadership in Kiev be trusted that it will honor and respect

‘any type of ceasefire agreement’ or ‘any broad peace plan’ with Moscow if it torpedoes proposal not to attack energy facilities on the basis of reciprocity?

Meanwhile, by noon Moscow time on March 25, 2025 Moscow has not attacked any Ukrainian energy facility, but it warned that it reserves the right to retaliate to such Ukrainian strikes

 


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Kozin - Ritter - INF Treaty Explained - SITREP - Ukraine

Vladimir Kozin gave an interview to the Regis TV show (USA) on the issue of nuclear arms control between Russia and the USA.

A fascinating and informative discussion about the INF Treaty and their involvement in it. Scott Ritter and Vladimir Kozin examine the nuclear arms race, when it began, how it escalated, and where we are today. Both are worried. We concluded with their thoughts of the situation in Ukraine today.


Vladimir P. Kozin: "Russia is not going to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. This contradicts the Russian nuclear doctrine. The decision to increase the operational duty regime in its deterrence forces cannot be interpreted as an increase in the combat readiness of its nuclear forces".

 


 

Kozin on the summit, Afghanistan, and Putin style vs Biden in USA

 

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин дал интервью независимому телеканалу США «Реджис-шоу».

Kursk Region is totally liberated

April 26, 2025

Kursk Region fully liberated from Ukrainians

The Russian military has completely liberated the border Kursk Region from Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF), President Vladimir Putin has said after being briefed on the battlefield situation by General Staff Chief, Army General Valery Gerasimov.

“The Kiev regime’s adventure has completely failed, and the huge losses suffered by the enemy, including among the most combat-ready, trained and equipped, including by Western models of equipment… will certainly be reflected along the entire line of combat contact,” he said.


According to Putin, the Russian success sets the stage for further advances

in other areas of the front, bringing final victory in the conflict closer.


The daring operation led to a complete crumbling of Ukrainian defenses. According to Gerasimov, total Ukrainian losses during the Kursk incursion amounted to more than 76,000 servicemen killed and wounded. It is more than total Ukrainian invasion force that invaded Donbass on February 17, 2022. During Russia’s counter-offensive in Kursk Region more than 7,700 units of military equipment, including 412 tanks, and 340 infantry fighting vehicles, and 314 APCs have been destroyed.

The Chief of the General Staff confirmed that Russia’s military effort in Kursk Region was supported by North Korean troops, whose assistance was provided under the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership signed last year between Russia and North Korea. "Soldiers and officers of the Korean People's Army, carrying out combat mission shoulder to shoulder with Russian servicemen, showed high professionalism during the repulse of the Ukrainian invasion, showed perseverance, courage and heroism in battle," Army General Gerasimov stressed.

 

Putin reaffirmed readiness for unconditional talks with Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated Moscow’s readiness for unconditional talks with Ukraine during a recent meeting with US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff. The meeting took place at the Kremlin Palace on April 25. It lasted for nearly three hours. Putin’s foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov and presidential investment CEO Kirill Dmitriev also took part in the meeting.

“The conversation allowed to further align Russian and US positions not only on Ukraine but also on a number of other international issues,” Ushakov noted, without going into details.

The Russian Defense Ministry provided an update on the outcome of the Easter truce celebrated on April 20th: Ukraine has violated it around 4,900 times, launched some 3,300 short-range drones at Russian positions, conducted artillery strikes and staged six offensive operations. Earlier, the Russian president proposed, to discuss bilaterally with the Ukrainian side the issue of non-strikes against civilian targets, but Kiev refused.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

LIVE: Чем обернется провал контрнаступления ВСУ для руководства США

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в эфире канала медиагруппы «Патриот».

Контрнаступление ВСУ анонсировалось руководством Украины последние полгода. Почему сроки постоянно сдвигаются? Где и когда может начаться контрнаступление? О каком комбинированном маневре говорит Джон Кирби? Как повлияет провал контрнаступления ВСУ на политическую ситуацию в США? Что будет с руководством Украины в случае неудачного контрнаступления?

Lavrov Addresses UN Security Council - Ukraine Loosing Badly

Dr. Vladimir Kozin joins Regis Tremblay to discuss Sergey Lavrov's address to the UN Security Council. As an associate of Lavrov, who has followed his career closely, Vladimir Kozin thinks this was the best speech he has ever given.

They also talked about how Ukraine is losing support in the US. Even a top general in the field admits that Ukraine is lacking troops, weapons, and artillery.

Le désarmement nucléaire ne sera envisageable qu’après la restauration de la confiance entre la Russie et les États-Unis

>> Прочитать на русском <<

>> Read in English <<

Depuis 2011, la Russie et les États-Unis adhèrent aux directives du nouveau Traité de réduction des armes stratégiques (nouveau START), le considérant comme un accord pratique important pour le contrôle des armes nucléaires stratégiques. A la date du 5 février 2018, les deux parties devront respecter les limites imposées par le Traité sur les armes nucléaires stratégiques offensives, qui permettent à chaque partie de disposer d’un arsenal de 1 550 têtes nucléaires et de 800 lanceurs et bombardiers déployés et non déployés.

Il n’y a pas si longtemps, les analystes des médias américains demandaient à ce que le traité soit prorogé de cinq ans supplémentaires après son expiration en 2021, c’est-à-dire pour le maintenir en vigueur jusqu’en 2026.

Mais un certain nombre de questions liées aux problèmes de contrôle des armements russo-américains restent non résolues, allant de la défense antimissile à la prévention des incidents sous-marins impliquant des sous-marins, et bien plus encore.

La proposition d’étendre le nouveau START pour cinq autres années et de rédiger un nouveau traité START IV pourrait gagner du terrain si elle était considérée indépendamment des autres problèmes qui affectent fortement la stabilité régionale et mondiale. Cette proposition mériterait plus d’attention si un véritable «partenariat stratégique» existait entre Moscou et Washington – ainsi, dans l’atmosphère de confiance totale qui en résulterait, il n’y aurait pas d’approche diamétralement opposée pour résoudre de si nombreux problèmes internationaux urgents.

Mais malheureusement, rien de tout cela n’a été évident durant de nombreuses années. La relation entre la Russie et les États-Unis est actuellement dans un état de crise profonde. Washington a déclenché la Guerre froide 2.0 contre la Russie et, contrairement à la phase initiale de ce conflit (1945-1991), elle a pris une dimension entièrement nouvelle et plus dangereuse.

Naturellement, Moscou est prête à considérer les propositions officielles de Washington pour étendre le nouveau START, mais seulement si elles passent par les canaux officiels et non par les médias ou via les rangs des scientifiques et des chercheurs, parce que l’article 14 de ce traité stipule la bonne procédure à suivre.

De plus, on pourrait dire que du point de vue de la stabilité mondiale, il semble stratégiquement dangereux de fixer des limites qui seraient contraignantes jusqu’en 2026 sur les lanceurs, les bombardiers et les ogives, et aussi de poursuivre dans la voie d’autres réductions dans le cadre d’une sorte de nouveau traité (le plus récent START), pour les neuf raisons suivantes:

  1. En 2020, soit six ans avant la date d’expiration du nouveau START, le rapport entre les systèmes américains de défense contre les missiles balistiques et les armes stratégiques offensives russes sera de 2 : 1, tandis que le rapport entre les missiles va même jusqu’à 3 : 1 (et aucun de ces scénarios ne prend en compte le système de missiles Patriot). L’accumulation incontrôlée des systèmes américains d’intercepteurs de défense antimissile et l’expansion sans entrave de leur zone de déploiement vont sérieusement aggraver cette dangereuse disparité. S’appuyant sur son avantage dans la défense antimissile balistique, les Etats-Unis pourraient facilement lancer une première frappe nucléaire non seulement sur l’Iran ou la Corée du Nord, mais même sur la Russie ou la Chine, et ensuite s’abriter contre toute frappe de représailles derrière un bouclier antimissile aussi imperméable. Plus le plafond des armes nucléaires stratégiques de la Russie est bas et plus le nombre d’intercepteurs dans le système de défense antimissile américain est élevé, plus il sera tentant pour Washington de lancer une première frappe nucléaire « préventive », contre la Russie en particulier.
  2. Les armes nucléaires tactiques américaines sont déployées dans quatre États européens et la moitié de celles qui sont déployées en Asie le sont en Turquie, et celles-ci pourraient être utilisées pour lancer une première frappe nucléaire ou pour amplifier des frappes nucléaires lancées à l’aide d’armes stratégiques offensives. Il convient également de garder à l’esprit que les forces nucléaires américaines officiellement classées comme «tactiques» peuvent effectuer simultanément des tâches nucléaires tactiques et stratégiques, selon leur vecteur – que ce soit par avion tactique ou stratégique.
  3. Les États-Unis utilisent des bombardiers stratégiques lourds dans le cadre de leurs exercices militaires ou comme «démonstration de force» en Europe, en Asie et dans la région Asie-Pacifique.
  4. Washington viole régulièrement le Traité de 1987 sur les forces nucléaires à portée intermédiaire. Le Pentagone a déjà violé ce traité 92 fois depuis 2001 en testant l’efficacité des systèmes de défense antimissile américains et de ses alliés, en utilisant comme cibles les types de missiles balistiques à courte, moyenne portée et de portée intermédiaire interdits par ce traité. Le budget militaire américain pour 2018 a alloué 65 millions de dollars pour créer un nouveau missile de croisière nucléaire lancé au sol. De plus, il y a des voix à Washington qui plaident pour un retrait unilatéral des États-Unis de ce traité.
  5. Les opérations de maintien de l’ordre dans la Baltique se poursuivent toute l’année dans les cieux des trois États baltes, en utilisant des aéronefs «à double capacité» des trois puissances nucléaires occidentales pouvant transporter des armes conventionnelles ou nucléaires.
  6. Les États-Unis adhèrent à une doctrine de « dissuasion nucléaire offensive inconditionnelle », permettant une frappe nucléaire massive ou limitée contre la Russie, la Chine, la Corée du Nord et l’Iran.
  7. Washington refuse obstinément de conclure un accord qui empêcherait l’arsenalisation de l’espace.
  8. Les États-Unis et l’OTAN se sont engagés dans une accumulation effrénée de leurs forces polyvalentes, qui comprennent des armes lourdes, et mènent des exercices militaires à grande échelle de nature offensive dans les régions limitrophes du territoire de la Russie et de ses alliés. Depuis 2014, l’OTAN a étendu respectivement de 400% et 900% la reconnaissance militaire et aérienne qu’elle effectue à proximité immédiate de la Russie.
  9. Les documents-cadres des États-Unis et de l’OTAN contiennent encore des déclarations inappropriées sur les actions de la Russie sur la scène internationale et sur le plan économique – des sanctions illégales contre pratiquement 400 institutions et entreprises russes différentes, plus 200 individus, ne contribuent en rien à restaurer une confiance mutuelle.

Une fois que les exigences du nouveau START auront été satisfaites en février 2018, la Russie aura effectivement épuisé ses options pour poursuivre les négociations avec les Américains afin de réduire les armes offensives stratégiques sur une base bilatérale.

Dans la même veine, tous les États nucléaires devraient être associés à un processus de négociation correspondant. Tout d’abord, cela devrait concerner la Grande-Bretagne et la France – les principaux alliés nucléaires des États-Unis, qui ont des engagements réciproques dans la mise en œuvre de la «dissuasion nucléaire offensive inconditionnelle.» Pour calculer comment équilibrer les capacités nucléaires futures de la Russie face aux trois puissances nucléaires occidentales, il faudra prendre en compte l’arsenal nucléaire combiné du Royaume-Uni, des États-Unis et de la France, afin de s’assurer que l’ensemble ne l’emporte pas sur le potentiel nucléaire de la Fédération de Russie.

Les commentateurs occidentaux essaient de répandre des rumeurs selon lesquelles les Russes ont déjà pris la décision d’étendre le nouveau START. Mais ce n’est pas le cas. Aucune décision de ce genre n’a encore été prise. Ils réfléchissent toujours à leurs positions sur cette question. Telle était la déclaration officielle russe le 20 octobre à la session plénière de la Conférence de non-prolifération de Moscou.

L’establishment militaire américain devra s’habituer à l’idée qu’il est futile d’exercer une pression médiatique sur la Russie en matière de désarmement et que tout effort supplémentaire pour progresser doit commencer par des mesures visant à restaurer la confiance mutuelle perdue, et s’attaquer aux nombreux problèmes de maîtrise des armements en question qui influent sur l’équilibre stratégique des puissances entre Moscou et Washington.

Par Vladimir Kozin, Source: Réseau International

Missile Defense Arms Race

Alexander Vershbow, deputy secretary general of NATO and former U.S. ambassador to Russia, published a comment entitled "NATO Missile Defense Is No Threat to Russia" in The Moscow Times on Nov. 12.

In his comment, Vershbow said an Oct. 29 Rossiiskaya Gazeta article incorrectly stated that land-based and sea-launched interceptor missiles in the U.S. national missile defense system "are designed for the total destruction of the warheads of short-, intermediate- and intercontinental-range ballistic missiles."

Vershbow urged readers to focus on the facts and physics, writing, "NATO's entire ballistic missile defense system, including the future site in Romania, will defend against short — and intermediate-range ballistic missiles." The interceptors to be deployed in all three phases of NATO's ballistic missile defense system "are not designed to defend against intercontinental missiles," Vershbow wrote.

For the sake of finding the truth on this issue, it is important to clarify the existing terminology of short-range ballistic missiles, medium-range ballistic missiles, intermediate-range ballistic missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles. According to the Pentagon definition articulated by the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, short-range ballistic missiles are those that can fly up to 1,000 kilometers. Medium-range ballistic missiles have a range between 1,000 to 3,000 kilometers, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles can fly between 3,000 and 5,500 kilometers. Finally, intercontinental ballistic missiles have a range of 5,500 kilometers.

If Vershbow is correctly portraying the main mission of the future U.S. ballistic missile defense system in Romania and Poland, which will be deployed in 2015 and 2018, respectively, it would mean that they can hit the potential intermediate-range ballistic missiles at their maximum range of 5,500 kilometers and intercontinental missiles at their minimal range — the same 5,500 kilometers.

How, then, in real combat can anyone distinguish between the incoming ballistic missiles — whether they are intermediate-range ballistic missiles or intercontinental ballistic missiles — if their respective upper and lower limits coincide?

When Vice Admiral James Syring, the current director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, spoke before the Senate Appropriations committee and Defense Subcommittee on July 17, he said, "In addition, we continue to develop the SM-3 Block IIA to enable U.S. and Japanese Aegis BMD ships to engage medium-range ballistic missiles and intermediate-range ballistic missiles and, when coupled with the upgraded Aegis missile defense weapon system, more sophisticated ballistic missile threats."

What did Syring mean by "more sophisticated ballistic missile threats"? Intercontinental ballistic missiles?

The U.S. did cancel Phase 4 of the European missile defense system, but Washington has not stopped research and development on these advanced interceptors, which means that they could be deployed in Europe in the future.

What is the difference for Moscow, if the U.S. and NATO deploy SM-3 Block IIA or SM-3 Block IIB systems near Russian territory if they both are still considered by the Pentagon as "forward-based weapons" in relation to Russia?

Moreover, Moscow does not have these missile defense systems and has no intention to store them near the U.S. As a result, an increasing number of analysts and members of the military are urging the Kremlin to respond more aggressively against U.S. missile defense installations.

The reaction is understandable. After 12 years of negotiations between Moscow and Washington on the missile defense problem, there are no legal checks and balances to contain the looming missile defense arms race between the two largest nuclear powers.

U.S.-Soviet relations during the last century was marked by a nuclear missiles arms race with a huge number of deployed and nondeployed strategic offensive nuclear arms and a very limited number of missile defense interceptors. Relations between the two countries during the current century are in danger of being marked by a missile defense arms race featured by a reverse strategic equation, when the number of interceptors could soon exceed the number of strategic offensive nuclear missiles.

Does the world really need another arms race in any form? Instead of ushering in a qualitatively new arms race, the nuclear powers have to hammer out a new multilateral Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.

By Vladimir Kozin
Read more: The Moscow Times  25.11.2013

Missile Defense, Weapons in Space, The Danger to Humanity

 

Two experts, one Russian, the other American, discuss nuclear treaties abandoned, missile defense systems, and weapons in space. Missile Defense Systems are easily converted to offensive nuclear systems and are a great threat to Russia. There are no treaties and no agreements about developing weapon systems in space, another grave threat to humanity.

Here's the special report we discussed in the program.

Vladimir Kozin, expert on nuclear treaties, nuclear weapons, and war. Special advisor to the Russian presidential administration.

Subrata Ghorhroy, American engineer, is a Research Affiliate with the Program in Science, Technology, and Society at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA. He is also a Visiting Professor at the Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo.

 

Moscow responded to Jeddah statement with nuances

 

March 14, 2025

The Kremlin response

At a press-conference in Moscow on March 13, President Vladimir Putin said that he is in favor of a 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine that could lead to a permanent peace. He stated that Russia “… agree with the proposals to stop hostilities. But our position is that this ceasefire should lead to a long-term peace and eliminate the initial causes of this crisis.” At the same time, he raised concerns regarding how such a truce be implemented in reality. Putin labeled such concerns as “nuances.”

In his words, Russia wants guarantees that during that interval Ukraine will not conduct additional forceful mobilization and will not receive weapons from outside. He excluded a chance to leave Kursk Region free by trapped Ukrainian GIs whom he labelled on March 11 as “terrorists” who have committed many crimes against civilians.

Putin also asked about potential verification of the ceasefire along 2,000 km Line of Combat Engagement, and wondered who will issue orders to lay down arms during such an end of hostilities.

Russia’s next steps

“These are all questions that demand a thorough examination from both sides”, Putin finalized.

He thanked President Donald Trump for paying much attention to the conflict resolution, and noted that there are relevant issues to be discussed with him. Earlier Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russian side is ready to promptly arrange a phone call with the US leader if needed.

Speaking to journalists the same evening Peskov confirmed Steve Witkoff’s visit to Moscow, stating that the US envoy had met with Putin to deliver “additional details” to the Russian leader. Putin also supplied him with “information and additional signals for President Trump,” Peskov noted, at the same time avoiding to disclose any details. He expressed cautious optimism over the deal.


No doubt that it will be torpedoed by the US resumption of arms deliveries to Ukraine and sharing sensitive intelligence with it. Both steps will be used to kill more Russians – both military men and civilians. It is unforgettable. For ages.

 


Jeddah statement: what does it mean per se?

The statement by the United States and Ukraine about the meeting in Jeddah actually is not an agreement. These provisions are the short thesis for the lecture. Or at least a joint communique. Therefore, it resembles the Minsk Agreements – documents without specific deadlines and without any responsibility for potential violations. That is why the Minsk accords have been easily violated by Kiev. Russia never violated them because it has never been an official part of them.

In this case a more practical approach is needed. It is necessary for Washington and Moscow to prepare full draft agreements: on a cease-fire, and subsequently b) on the establishment of enduring peace. Both texts should have a preamble and specific articles, and the names of signatories.

That’s the only way out from a gloomy and long impasse. Other options will be empty ballyhoo.

Ukrainian losses in Kursk Region

Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) in Kursk Region, western Russia, have been encircled and isolated, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov said on March 11. He also announced that UAF suffered about 67,000 casualties in the area since August 6, 2024, the Ukrainian invasion. He said that enemy soldiers were surrendering, with 430 prisoners already taken by March 11. Ukrainian military contingent in the region occupies 14 percent of the territory captured by it since August 6, 2024. Currently, military command over Ukrainian troops in this zone is lost.

Gerasimov reported on the situation in Kursk Region during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at one of the command posts in the area.

According to Russian Defense Ministry, by March 12, 2025 since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk direction, the UAF losses amounted to more than 66,810 troops, 392 tanks, 314 infantry fighting vehicles, 275 armoured personnel carriers, 2,191 armoured fighting vehicles, 2,411 motor vehicles, 545 artillery guns, 52 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and seven of MLRS made by the USA, 26 anti-aircraft missile launchers, one self-propelled anti-aircraft system, ten transport-loading vehicles,120 EW stations,16 counter-battery warfare radars, ten air defence radars, 56 units of engineering and other materiel, including 23 counter-obstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, five bridge launchers, one engineering reconnaissance vehicle as well as 15 armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.

Since March 13, 2025 Sudzha is under full Russian military control.

Total Ukrainian military losses since 2022

In total, since the beginning of the Special Military Operation, the AFU losses amounted to 657 aircraft, 283 helicopters; 46,361 unmanned aerial vehicles, 600 anti-aircraft missile systems; 22,127 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles; 1,526 MLRS combat vehicles; 22,508 field artillery guns and mortars, plus 32,717 units of support military vehicles.

Russia is still committed to eliminate the initial causes of this crisis in Europe, cased by Ukrainian aggression started since April 2014.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine will present a threat to Russia

 

March, 17, 2025

NATO “peacekeepers in Ukraine

The deployment of “peacekeepers” from NATO member states to Ukraine would trigger an all-out war between the military Alliance and Moscow, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev who currently serves as the Deputy Chair of Russia’s Security Council has warned. In recent weeks, the leaders of the UK and France have ramped up discussions about such a mission. “That means war with NATO”, he noted.

It is not the first negative response articulated in Russia on that issue. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made several statements that their deployment in Ukraine would create a direct threat to Russia from the transatlantic Alliance. Moscow’s explanation is that such NATO contingents will be involved in a direct military confrontation with it irrespective of the name-tags and the uniform they wear.

Despite such straight warnings British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said he was willing to station thousands of British troops in Ukraine for years in order to uphold any future peace deal brokered by the USA. In his words, the UK was prepared to put "boots on the ground and planes in the air" in order to make any agreement work. It follows a recent conference call between the UK and 29 allies – excluding the US – to discuss how a “peacekeeping” mission involving their troops could work in practice.

The fate of the Ukrainian GIs encircled in Kursk Region

On March 13, 2025, US President Donald Trump acknowledged that “thousands of Ukrainian troops are completely surrounded by the Russian military and in a very bad and vulnerable position” in Kursk Region and urged Moscow to “spare” their lives. In response, Vladimir Putin offered the servicemen guaranteed safety and merciful treatment if they surrender. He expressed hope that current Ukrainian military-political leaders might issue an order for the encircled Ukrainian GIs to lay down arms.

Kiev, meanwhile, has staunchly denied that its forces in Kursk Region are surrounded. In a post on Telegram on March 15, former Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky acknowledged that the situation in the area is “difficult” for Ukraine, but stated that “there is no encirclement” of Ukrainian troops.” The same view has been officially expressed by General Aleksandr Syrsky, Commander of Ukraine’s Ground Forces, and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrey Sibiga. All the reports about the encirclement “are false and fabricated by the Russians for political manipulation, Ukrainian General Staff said in a statement on March 15. “We are continuing the operation in Kursk Region and will continue to do so,” the head of MFA stated later.


Their words can be interpreted that they deny to cooperate with the USA and Russia on resolving the issue of Ukrainian forces’ fate in Kursk Region on humanitarian grounds. Kiev is against any ceasefire accord with Russia.  


Instead, there are reports that foreign mercenaries in the area are preventing escaping Ukrainian troops to leave the territory by using weapons. Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) are still shelling not only Russian troops but trapped Ukrainian GIs as well, by employment of HIMARs MLRS and cluster munitions. Many Ukrainian soldiers have been kept there and convicted in military crimes in terms of civilians like intentional killings, raping and robbery. By now, the Russian MFA announced that 6,500 criminal cases have been opened against Ukrainian GIs operated along all fronts.

Russian offer to UAF in Kursk Region to surrender is still valid, but time is running out, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on March 16.

It has been confirmed that Putin and Trump will have a phone call on March 18.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Nazis Surrender at Mariupol - Nazis Indoctrinate Kids 7-17

Dr. Vladimir Kozin explains the reality of the mass, unconditional surrender at the Asovstal Steel Mill in Mariupol. We also discuss the Nazi intensification of the indoctrination of Ukrainian kids since 2014. Frightening and repulsive. And, we discussed the sitrep of the intervention on the ground. Lugansk completely secured.

An interview to the Regis TV show (USA).

 

Nuclear disarmament is unthinkable until trust is restored between Russia and the US

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Russia and the US have been adhering to the terms of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) since 2011, viewing it as an important practical agreement to control strategic nuclear weapons.  By Feb. 5, 2018, both sides are expected to have met the treaty’s limits on strategic offensive nuclear weapons, which allows each side a maximum arsenal of 1,550 nuclear warheads and 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers and bombers.

Not so long ago analysts in the US media were arguing for the treaty to be extended for an additional five years after it expires in 2021, i.e., to keep it functioning until 2026.

But a number of problems related to Russian-US arms-control issues remain unresolved, ranging from questions about missile defense to the prevention of underwater incidents involving submarines, and much more.

The proposal to extend New START for another five years and to draft a new START IV Treaty could gain traction if it were considered in isolation from other issues that powerfully impact regional and global stability.  That proposal would be more worthy of attention if a genuine “strategic partnership” existed between Moscow and Washington – then, in the resulting atmosphere of complete trust, there would be no diametrically opposed approaches to resolving so many pressing international problems.

But unfortunately, nothing of the sort has been evident for many years.  The relationship between Russia and the US is currently in a state of deep crisis.  Washington has unleashed Cold War 2.0 against Russia, and unlike the initial phase of that conflict (1945-1991), this has taken on an entirely new and more dangerous dimension.

Naturally Moscow is ready to consider Washington’s official proposals to extend New START, but only if they come through official channels and not from the media or the ranks of scientists and researchers, because Article 14 of this treaty stipulates the correct procedure for entertaining such a motion.

What’s more, one could also say that from the perspective of ensuring global stability, it seems strategically dangerous to set limits that would be binding until 2026 on launchers, bombers, and warheads, and also to continue down the path of further reductions under some kind of new treaty (the Newest START), for the following nine reasons:

  1. By 2020, i.e., six years before New START’s extended expiration date, the ratio between US ballistic-missile defense systems and Russian strategic offensive weapons will be 2:1, while the ratio between US missile-defense interceptor systems vs. Russian strategic warheads will even reach as high as 3:1 (and neither of these scenarios takes into account the Patriot missile system). The uncontrolled buildup of US missile-defense interceptor systems and the unimpeded expansion of their zone of deployment will seriously worsen this dangerous disparity.  Relying on its advantage in ballistic-missile defense, the United States could easily launch a first nuclear strike not only on Iran or North Korea, but even on Russia or China, and then it would be sure to hide from any retaliatory strike under the cover of such an impermeable “missile shield.”  The lower the ceiling on Russia’s strategic nuclear weapons and the greater the number of interceptors in the US missile-defense system that can deflect them, the more tempting it will be for Washington to launch a first, “preemptive” nuclear strike, on Russia in particular.
  2. American tactical nuclear weapons are deployed in four European states and the Asian half of Turkey, and those could be used to launch a first nuclear strike or to amplify nuclear strikes launched with the assistance of strategic offensive weapons. It should also be kept in mind that American nuclear forces that are officially classified as “tactical” can simultaneously carry out both tactical as well as strategic nuclear tasks, depending on their mode of delivery – whether by tactical or strategic aircraft.
  3. The United States uses heavy strategic bombers as part of its military exercises or as a “show of force” in Europe, Asia, and the Asia-Pacific region.
  4. Washington regularly violates the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. The Pentagon has already violated this treaty 92 times since 2001 while testing the effectiveness of the missile-defense systems of the US and its allies, by using as targets the types of short-, medium-, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles that are prohibited by that treaty.  The US military budget for 2018 has allocated $65 million to create a new ground-launched nuclear cruise missile.   In addition, there are voices in Washington that are arguing for a unilateral US withdrawal from this treaty.
  5. The year-round, 24/7 Baltic Air Policing operations continue in the skies of three Baltic states, using “dual-capable” aircraft from the three Western nuclear powers that can carry either conventional or nuclear weapons.
  6. The US adheres to a doctrine of “unconditional offensive nuclear deterrence,” allowing for either a massive or a limited first nuclear strike against Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran.
  7. Washington stubbornly refuses to come any agreement that would prevent the weaponization of space.
  8. The United States and NATO are engaged in an unrestrained buildup of their general-purpose forces, which include heavy weapons, and conduct large-scale military exercises of an offensive nature in regions bordering the territory of Russia and its allies. Since 2014, NATO has expanded the military and aerial reconnaissance it conducts in immediate proximity to Russia by 400% and 900%, respectively.
  9. US and NATO framework documents still include inappropriate statements about Russia’s actions on the international stage, and in terms of economics – illegal sanctions are supported that punish as many as 400 different Russian institutions and businesses, plus 200 individuals, which in no way helps to restore mutual trust.

Once the demands of New START have been met in February 2018, Russia will have effectively exhausted its options for continuing negotiations with the Americans to reduce strategic offensive arms on a bilateral basis.

In a similar vein, all nuclear states should be involved in a corresponding process of negotiations.  First off, this should pertain to Britain and France – the primary nuclear allies of the United States, which have reciprocal commitments in the implementation of “unconditional offensive nuclear deterrence.” When calculating how to balance the future nuclear capabilities of Russia vs. the three Western nuclear powers, the combined nuclear arsenal of the United Kingdom, the US, and France should be taken into account, in order to ensure that that does not outweigh the nuclear potential of the Russian Federation.

Western commentators are trying to spread rumors that the Russians have already made up their minds about extending New START.  But that’s not so.  No such decision has been made as yet.  They are currently still thinking through their positions on this issue.  That was the official Russian pronouncement on Oct. 20 at the plenary session of the Moscow Nonproliferation Conference.

The US military establishment will have to get used to the idea that it is futile to exert media pressure on Russia when it comes to disarmament issues and that any further efforts to make progress must begin with steps to restore the mutual trust that has been lost and to address the many arms-control problems in question that are impacting the strategic balance of power between Moscow and Washington.

Written by Vladimir Kozin, Source: OrientalReview

Offener Brief zum „Friedensmanifest“

Lesung des offenen Briefes von Dr. W. Kosin am Brandenburger Tor in Berlin.

On the Eve of War - A report from Moscow

Vladimir Kozin reports on his intel from Moscow at the run-up to war in Ukraine. Will America be willing to sacrifice Europe? Could this escalate into an all out nuclear war. The facts about what is really happening in Ukraine and the Donbass: Merica doesn't tell you this.


Vladimir P. Kozin: «Up to now, despite faked rumors disseminated by Western officials and mass media the Russian Armed Forces have not crossed Russian-Ukrainian border, and have not open fire on Ukrainian Armed Forces”.

 


 

Pangea - For a World without Wars: Interview with Vladimir Kozin

 

In this special Pangea's Grandangolo episode Jean Marazzani Visconti interviews Vladimir Kozin, a Russian expert of the Political-Military Studies Center. The interview was done for the TV channel Byoblu, that aired on 15/11/2022, in the Russia Today (RT) headquarters in Moscow, of which we published an extract in episode 71 of Grandangolo.

Vladimir Kozin denounces the fact that the United States, after tearing the INF Treaty, are deploying in Europe close to Russia nuclear missiles with an intermediate radius, in addition to the new B61-12 nuclear bombs. Regarding these, he declares: “The B61-12 are already sent to Europe, contrary to what was announced by politician who will arrive in December. We have information that they have already arrived, because a specific plane such as the US fighter F-35A has already been delivered to NATO member countries. Also to Finland, which has not yet become a member of NATO in all respects but is waiting for ratification. Finland asked 65 F-35 capable of using nuclear weapons. And recently voices have come from Helsinki who would like to have US nuclear weapons on Finnish soil, as Germany has them, as Belgium has them, as Holland and Italy and Turkey have them. So Europe is becoming a nuclear powder keg”.

Vladimir Kozin defines the current situation "much worse than it was during the Cold War, much more lethal and more dangerous". He therefore feels that "if our territory is attacked with nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction, such as chemical or biological weapons, bacteriological and toxic, as well as nuclear, we will reply". When asked if Russia will hit the US nuclear bases in Europe, he replies: “Yes, this is certain. If we are attacked". Kozin defines all this "madness". He warns that, if a nuclear war comes, "there will be no winners or won, everyone will lose".

 

President Putin: “The USA is pushing the whole world into a global conflict”

 

November 22, 2024

 

At the evening of November 21, 2024 President of Russia Vladimir Putin made the following video statement that contained a very strong warning to the USA and some of their allies who resorted to an extremely dangerous escalation of an all-out aggression against Russia. Herewith is the full text of his remarks. Highlights and notes are made by myself.

“I would like to inform the military personnel of the Russian Federation Armed Forces, citizens of our country, our friends across the globe, and those who persist in the illusion that a strategic defeat can be inflicted upon Russia, about the events taking place today in the zone of the special military operation, specifically following the attacks by Western long-range weapons against our territory.

The escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, instigated by the West, continues with the United States and its NATO allies previously announcing that they authorize the use of their long-range high-precision weapons for strikes inside the Russian Federation. Experts are well aware, and the Russian side has repeatedly highlighted it, that the use of such weapons is not possible without the direct involvement of military experts from the manufacturing nations.

On November 19, six ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles produced by the United States, and on November 21, during a combined missile assault involving British Storm Shadow systems and HIMARS systems produced by the USA, attacked military facilities inside the Russian Federation in the Bryansk and Kursk Regions. From that point onward, as we have repeatedly emphasized in prior communications, the regional conflict in Ukraine provoked by the West has assumed elements of a global nature. Our air defense systems successfully counteracted these incursions, preventing the enemy from achieving their apparent objectives.

The fire at the ammunition depot in the Bryansk Region, caused by the debris of ATACMS missiles, was extinguished without casualties or significant damage. In the Kursk Region, the attack targeted one of the command posts of our group North. Regrettably, the attack and the subsequent air defense battle resulted in casualties, both fatalities and injuries, among the perimeter security units and servicing staff. However, the command and operational staff of the control center suffered no casualties and continues to manage effectively the operations of our forces to eliminate and push enemy units out of the Kursk Region.

I wish to underscore once again that the use by the enemy of such weapons cannot affect the course of combat operations in the Special Military Operation zone. Our forces are making successful advances along the entire line of contact, and all objectives we have set will be accomplished.

In response to the deployment of American and British long-range weapons, on November 21, the Russian Armed Forces delivered a combined strike on a facility within Ukraine’s defense industrial complex. In field conditions, we also carried out tests of one of Russia’s latest medium-range ballistic missile systems [Note: that can fly from 1,000 to 5,500 km according to Russian-U.S. arms control treaties; it can carry several either conventional or nuclear warheads] – in this case, carrying a non-nuclear hypersonic ballistic missile that our engineers named Oreshnik [Note: in English it may be translated as “hazel-wood”]. The tests were successful, achieving the intended objective of the launch. In the city of Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine, one of the largest and most famous industrial complexes from the Soviet Union era, which continues to produce missiles and other armaments, was hit.

We are developing intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles [Note: shorter-range missile can fly from 500 to 1,000 km] in response to US plans to produce and deploy intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. We believe that the United States made a mistake by unilaterally destroying the INF Treaty in 2019 [Note: it took place during Donald Trump’s presidency under ungrounded pretexts] under a far-fetched pretext. Today, the United States is not only producing such equipment, but, as we can see, it has worked out ways to deploy its advanced missile systems to different regions of the world, including Europe, during training exercises for its troops. Moreover, in the course of these exercises, they are conducting training for using them.

As a reminder, Russia has voluntarily and unilaterally committed not to deploy intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles until US weapons of this kind appear in any region of the world.

To reiterate, we are conducting combat tests of the Oreshnik missile system in response to NATO’s aggressive actions against Russia. Our decision on further deployment of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles will depend on the actions of the United States and its satellites.

We will determine the targets during further tests of our advanced missile systems based on the threats to the security of the Russian Federation. We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against military facilities of those countries that allow to use their weapons against our facilities, and in case of an escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond decisively and in mirror-like manner. I recommend that the ruling elites of the countries that are hatching plans to use their military contingents against Russia seriously consider this.

It goes without saying that when choosing, if necessary and as a retaliatory measure, targets to be hit by systems such as Oreshnik on Ukrainian territory, we will in advance suggest that civilians and citizens of friendly countries residing in those areas leave danger zones. We will do so for humanitarian reasons, openly and publicly, without fear of counter-moves coming from the enemy, who will also be receiving this information [Note: later, the presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov reported that Russia had officially notified the USA of the Oreshnik launch in advance through its national Nuclear Risk Reduction Center. The warning was sent automatically half an hour before the strike was made].

Why without fear? Because there are no means of countering such weapons today. Missiles attack targets at a speed of Mach 10, which is 2.5 to 3 kilometers per second. Air defense systems currently available in the world and missile defense systems being created by the Americans in Europe cannot intercept such missiles. It is impossible.

I would like to emphasize once again that it was not Russia, but the United States that destroyed the international security system and, by continuing to fight, cling to its hegemony, is pushing the whole world into a global conflict.

We have always preferred and are ready now to resolve all disputes by peaceful means. But we are also ready for any turn of events. If anyone still doubts this, make no mistake: there will always be a response.”

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Putin Did It - Donbass Independence Affirmed - US/NATO Defanged

 

Vladimir Kozin on historic speech to the nation by President Putin. Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republic now under Russian protection.


Site visitor's comment - Thomas Scheck: «I too rejoice with the Russian people of the Donbass for this decision of the Russian Federation to protect them. Putin's strength, goodness and moral integrity is a beacon and example to the whole world. God bless Russia».


 

Putin suggested temporarily governance in Ukraine by the UNO

 

March 28, 2025

A new initiative: the main aim is to facilitate elections

Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested discussing the establishment of a temporary external administration, under the guidance of the UN and several countries.  Amongst them he mentioned BRICS members, the USA and the EU nations who might wish to support it. The aim would be to hold fair elections in the country, since Vladimir Zelensky’s presidential term officially expired in May 2024.

External states should facilitate elections in Ukraine to “establish a capable government that has the trust of the people”, Putin stressed. After that, the new authorities could begin negotiations with Moscow and sign a peace agreement “that would be recognized around the world and will be reliable and stable.”

In his words, Ukraine’s constitutional legitimacy has broken down due to the expiration of Vladimir Zelensky’s presidential term last May and the lack of elections since – rendering all of his government’s claims to authority invalid.

The main goal, according to Putin, would be to organize democratic elections and install a functioning, legitimate government trusted by citizens and recognized globally. He stated that only such leaders could sign peace agreements that would be recognized worldwide.

He mentioned that his new option is just one, because there could be other suggestions. 

Senator Karasin commented on the US-Russia talks in Riyadh

Senator Grigory Karasin who is the head of Foreign Relations Committee at the Senate, the upper Chamber of the Russian Parliament, noted that the meeting was open and professional, the two sides debated “quite wide” the range of issues, and admitted that the conversation was constructive, but wasn't especially productive.

In a short interview given to the Parliamentary newspaper Karasin said that by the end of a full day of negotiations that lasted nearly 12 hours with short intervals, both sides had gotten used to each other and began to speak more directly, without ambiguity.

He said that new meetings between American and Russian delegations in the future are quite possible.

Kiev again violated US-backed energy ceasefire

The Ukrainian military again has attacked Russia’s energy infrastructure in three separate regions, violating a US-mediated moratorium on such strikes, the Defense Ministry in Moscow has announced. The latest incidents took place in Belgorod, Kursk and Saratov Regions of Russia.

It means that since March 18 till March 28, 2025 Kiev has violated ‘energy truce’ eleven times. Russia is still committed to such ceasefire agreement.


Food for thought: By August 1, 2024, there were more than 8,000 criminal cases opened under Article "Collaboration" in Ukraine. If anyone takes into account that there are about 200 criminal cases under this article initiated per month, then it is safe to predict that at the beginning of March 2025 there might be opened totally about 10,000 such cases


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Putin warned Kiev not to get NW

October 19, 2024

Why Zelensky wishes to get NW?

On October 18, 2024 Russian President Vladimir Putin in a clear-cut strong public statement said that Moscow would never allow Kiev to acquire nuclear weapons (NW), and any attempt to do this would be met with an appropriate Russian reaction. It was his first response to ex-Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelensky’s suggestion that Ukraine would need NW, should it not be granted NATO membership.

After promoting his ‘victory plan’ for the conflict with Russia to European officials, Zelensky disclosed on October 17 that speaking to Donald Trump while visiting the USA last month he told him: “What is the way out for us?’ Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons, and they will serve as protection, or we need to be in some kind of an alliance. We don’t know any effective alliances except NATO”.

A-bomb on short notice

Zelensky’s “victory-plan” contains a provision to invade and capture Moscow and Leningrad plus two other Russian Central Regions. It reminds Hitler’s “Barbarossa Blitzkrieg” war plan hammered out by Nazi Germany before it started a massive aggression against the USSR in June 1941. The invasion force that time included 183 German divisions and 13 brigades, all of which were destroyed later.

Zelensky added that Kiev stands ready to produce an A-bomb on short notice, saying that the nuclear talk was only meant to imply there was no alternative for Ukraine to join the US-led nuclear transatlantic alliance.

Moscow’s response

Commenting on such a statement on October 18 at a press conference for media from BRICS countries in Moscow Putin said that Zelensky’s announcement was “another dangerous provocation.” 


“I can say this: Russia will not allow such a thing under any circumstances”, the Russian President underscored.


 

Ukraine’s political leadership has repeatedly expressed a desire for NW, “even before the crisis turned hot,” Putin noted.

E.g., in February 2022, in a speech at the International Security Conference in Munich weeks before the escalation of the Ukrainian aggression against Donbass, Zelensky expressed regret at the decision to become a nuclear-free nation, suggesting that his country had “every right” to reverse it. By the mid 1990s Ukraine possessed both Soviet strategic/tactical NW and their means of delivery, but all of them had been totally returned to Russia.

What if Kiev is supplied with NW?

Asked whether another country, such as the UK, could secretly provide Ukraine with NW, the Russian leader said that it would be “impossible to hide,” and that Moscow is “capable of tracking down any movement in this direction.”

Last month, Putin announced a series of changes to Russia’s nuclear strategy, expanding the criteria for the use of the strategic nuclear deterrent. The move came as Kiev was requesting that NATO countries lift the restrictions on the use of foreign-supplied longer-range weapons for strikes deep inside continental Russia. The amended document also extended Russia’s nuclear umbrella to Belarus.

So far, the strategy has not been enacted by a presidential decree, and therefore has not been made public in full.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Putin-Trump phone call: the Kremlin press-release

                    

March 19, 2025

It is a full text of the such press-release (original is in Russian)

“A phone conversation between Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump took place on March 18, 2025.

Reaffirming his commitment to a peaceful resolution of the conflict, President Putin expressed readiness to work closely with American partners on a thorough and comprehensive settlement. He emphasized that any agreement must be sustainable and long-term, addressing the root causes of the crisis while considering Russia’s legitimate security interests.

Regarding President Trump’s initiative for a 30-day ceasefire, the Russian side highlighted key concerns, including effective monitoring of the ceasefire across the entire front line, halting forced mobilization in Ukraine, and stopping the rearmament of its military. Russia also noted serious risks due to Kiev’s history of undermining previous agreements and drew attention to terrorist attacks carried out by Ukrainian militants against civilians in the Kursk region.

It was emphasized that a crucial condition for preventing further escalation and working toward a political-diplomatic resolution is the complete cessation of foreign military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. [1]

In response to Trump’s recent request to ensure the safety of Ukrainian troops encircled in Kursk Region, Putin confirmed that Russia is guided by humanitarian considerations. He assured his counterpart that Ukrainian soldiers who surrender will be granted safety and treated in accordance with Russian laws and international humanitarian norms.[2]

During the conversation, Trump proposed a mutual agreement between both sides to refrain from striking energy infrastructure for 30 days. Putin welcomed the initiative and immediately instructed the Russian military to comply.[3]

Putin also responded constructively to Trump’s proposal regarding maritime security in the Black Sea, and both leaders agreed to initiate negotiations to further refine the details of such an arrangement.

Putin informed Trump that on March 19, Russia and Ukraine would conduct a prisoner exchange involving 175 detainees from each side. Additionally, as a goodwill gesture, Russia will transfer 23 severely wounded Ukrainian soldiers who are currently receiving medical treatment in Russian hospitals.

Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to continuing efforts toward resolving the Ukraine conflict bilaterally, incorporating the proposals discussed. To facilitate this, Russian and American expert groups will be established.

Putin and Trump also discussed broader international issues, including the situation in the Middle East and the Red Sea region. They agreed to coordinate efforts to stabilize crisis areas and enhance cooperation on nuclear non-proliferation and global security, which, in turn, would improve the overall state of US-Russia relations. A positive example of such cooperation was their joint vote at the United Nations on a resolution regarding the Ukraine conflict.

Both leaders expressed mutual interest in normalizing bilateral relations, recognizing the shared responsibility of Russia and the United States in ensuring global security and stability. In this context, they explored various areas for potential cooperation, including discussions on mutually beneficial economic and energy partnerships.

Trump supported Putin’s idea of organizing hockey matches in the US and Russia between players from the NHL and KHL.

The presidents agreed to remain in contact on all discussed matters.” [4]

Russia intentionally hit its seven UAV to fulfil the phone call obligations

Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed in a statement on March 19 that it had “received an order from the Supreme Commander-in-Chief to halt strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.”

According to the ministry, when Putin’s order came in “seven Russian attack drones were in the air, targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities related to the country’s military-industrial complex in Nikolaev Region.”

To fulfill the command, the Russian air defenses had to “neutralize” its own UAVs moving towards Ukraine. In particular, six drones were shot down by a Pantsir missile defense system and another by a fighter jet, it added.

Kiev immediately violated agreements reached during the phone call

Russian MoD also noted that “just several” hours after the call between Putin and Trump, “the Kiev regime carried out a deliberate attack with three fixed-wing drones on an energy infrastructure facility located in the village of Kavkazskaya in Russia’s Krasnodar Region.”

The strike damaged an on-site oil reservoir and caused a blaze. “Clearly, this was a premeditated provocation by the Kiev regime aimed at derailing the US President’s peace initiative,” the statement read.

The Kavkazskaya facility is used to transfer crude from rail-transported tanks to a pipeline operated by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), an international firm that lists US energy giants Chevron and Mobil among its partners.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin



[1] According to Reuters, U.S. President Donald Trump said aid to Ukraine was not discussed in his phone call on March 18 with Russian President Vladimir Putin although the Kremlin said the Russian leader had called for an end to military assistance for Kiev. Trump made the comments in an interview on Fox News’ “The Ingraham Angle” show. “We didn't talk about aid, we didn't talk about aid at all,” Trump said. “We talked about a lot things but aid was never discussed,” he clarified.

[2] Former Ukrainian president Zelensky, and Ukrainian MFA and MoD announced that Ukrainian troops have not been recalled back home from Kursk Region and they will continue fighting.

[3] See item 2 herewith.

[4] During the conversation, which lasted 2.5 hours, Putin reminded Trump that Ukraine in the past had “repeatedly sabotaged and violated agreements.” Zelensky violated such agreements or proposals for a truce 26 times already. Putin stressed that Moscow had questions about the US proposal for a 30-day comprehensive ceasefire, including the control over its implementation. The date of the commencement of the ceasefire has to be set up.

 

Putin: The newest MRBM Oreshnik can strike Kiev

November 30, 2024

On November 28, 2024 President Vladimir Putin answered media questions following his state visit to Kazakhstan and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Summit.

He pointed out that the decision of some NATO members to launch strikes at Russian territory using long-range high-precision weapons produced in the West would mean direct involvement of Western countries in the armed conflict, as it is simply impossible to deploy this type of weapons without directly involving the military personnel and the military specialists from the respective NATO countries. The President stressed that Russia would certainly respond to such acts of aggression against the Russian Federation. The timing, methods, and weapons employed will be determined by the General Staff of the MoD.

He noted that on November 28 in response to employment of the U.S. and the UK missiles strikes Russia fired 90 missiles and 100 unmanned strike vehicles against Ukrainian territory. Seventeen critical military, military-industrial, and auxiliary facilities that support the Ukrainian Armed Forces were struck.

In his words, Russia will not rule out the combat employment of Oreshnik hypersonic MRBM or Medium-Range Ballistic Missile on military-industrial facilities or command centers in Ukraine, including those located in Kiev. In so doing, Russia took in account that the Ukrainian authorities continue their attempts to target Russian critical assets, including those in St. Petersburg and Moscow.

Putin disclosed a number of the descriptive characteristics of the newly-developed missile.

He compared the use of several Oreshnik MRBMs in a single strike with the use of nuclear weapons, albeit they are not nuclear-tipped. A kinetic impact is a formidable force, akin to a meteorite impact. During an impact with any target Oreshnik’s strike elements are heated to a temperature of 4,000 degrees Celsius. Anything located in the strike center is obliterated into elemental particles, reduced to dust. Oreshnik can destroy highly fortified targets buried deep underground at a depth of three-four, possibly even more, floors below the surface. More power can be added to amplify the devastating effect of the missile.

Oreshnik cannot be intercepted by any NATO missile defense system.

Putin announced at the CSTO Summit that Russia produces significantly more various missiles than the entire NATO bloc can: “Russia has 10 times more of different missiles than the combined output of all NATO countries. Next year, we will increase the production by another 25 to 30 percent”.

Russian President warned that Moscow “would use all weapons” Russia has if Ukraine gets nuclear weapons. “We will not let this happen”, he firmly stated.  If Kiev creates a “dirty nuclear bomb” by scrambling up nuclear power plants’ waste, he continued, Russian response will be absolutely adequate to the threats to Russia.

Putin said that Moscow’s stance regarding the Ukraine settlement has not changed after the emergence of more and more new weapon systems. Russia is still ready for a negotiation process, and on the terms contained in his address to the Foreign Ministry leadership in Moscow last June.


FOOD FOR THOUGHT:

On April 14, 2014 NATO urged Ukrainian president a.i. Turchinov to unleash an all-out war against Donbass, and incited Zelensky to do the same on February 17, 2022 against Donbass, and later against Russia. In his turn Zelensky urged NATO to proliferate an all-out war against Russia. It is a vicious circle pushing the globe into nuclear abyss.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

 

Real face of Zelensky: blundering into a disaster

 March 1, 2025

 

It is not necessary to repeat the story once again here as to how Ukrainian ordinary citizen Zelensky, ex-president of that state, insulted the people of the USA and its leader President Donald Trump during their meeting at the White House on February 28, 2025. Their conversation has been directly TV and radio broadcasted all around the globe, including the entire Russian Federation, and many, many times.

The overall comments so far made in Moscow were in support of President Trump’s commitment for re-forging a genuine, long-lasting peace in Europe, interrupted by direct unprovoked and brutal Ukrainian aggression against Donbass since April 2014 under instructions of the Ukrainian president ad interim Oleksandr Turchynov, and intensified in the cruel way under president Volodymir Zelensky exactly on February 17, 2022. Again, against Donbass. It happened just a week before Russian Armed Forces rushed for help to safe peaceful citizens of Donbass from physical extinction who decided not to stay within a country called Ukraine where the regime of ultra-nationalists have entrenched after a bloody coup engineered by NATO in February 2014.

First, while recently sitting at the White House Zelensky has forgotten highly respected ancient rules of paying politeness during visiting someone at his or her official residence or homeplace: to fully respect their owner. Unfortunately, he interrupted the host of the meeting many times by irrelevant comments with ugly grimaces.

Second, Zelensky like in many cases in the past demanded from the USA security guarantees and additional arms for the continuation of the war that costed more than one million Ukrainian soldiers as killed and injured. He also refused to pay back the money to the Untied States for arms and ammunition generously offered to Kiev regime by the previous Democratic Party Administration.

Third, Zelensky displayed disrespect towards the USA and its people in such a manner that caused even his earlier supporters to change their positive minds about him.

Fourth, Zelensky’s previous political statements and his openly demonstrated wrong behavior at the White House proved: he is for continuation of the endless aggression in Europe for many decades.

Fifth, on the other hand, he has shown that he is against any sound and constructive peace deal that will be able to finally put an end to such a disgusting war. Lusting for a direct involvement into recent Russo-US talks, Zelensky 26 times neglected Vladimir Putin’s offer to proclaim a Christmas ceasefire, and to reach a comprehensive peace accord between Moscow and Kiev with ironclad security guarantees.

Why Zelensky has done this especially at the White House on February 28, in front of many TV cameras and radio microphones?

Highly likely, a) to create an artificial united European-Ukrainian front against President Donald Trump with the selfish aim to topple him via poorly orchestrated and primitive provocation; and, b) to continue the war in Europe for the benefits of military industrial complexes in a number of NATO/EU states, and for Zelensky’s personal financial profiteering from the huge victims of the Ukrainian aggression.


Just two recommendations are knocking at the door of reason:

Zelensky must step down from the position he does not have since last May.

Some aggressive and irrational NATO/EU leaders have to think sixteen times before they will plunge the planet into the WW3 through the warmongering strategy pursued by Zelensky with their selfish and irrational military assistance


 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Report # 100. The USA de facto kills civilians in Ukraine

July 12, 2022

1. Novaya Kakhovka has been heavily shelled by AFU who used U.S. HIMARS

Novaya Kakhovka located in Kherson Region has been heavily shelled by Ukrainian war criminals in the evening July 11th. A local official said that during this terrorist attack five people were killed and at least 90 injured. Some people are said to have been buried under the rubbles.

A kindergarten, hospital, church and a market place were also damaged. a fertilizer storage depot detonated due to the shelling.

The city is controlled by Russian forces. 

Local officials claimed that Ukrainian troops used US-delivered HIMARS multiple rocket launchers to attack Novaya Kakhovka. Local officials labelled such barbaric act as an act of terrorism.

AFU also shelled settlements located not far away from Zaporozhiye Nuclear Power Plant.


My comment: any direct or unintentional attack at this active NPP can cause severe tragedy not only to Ukraine and Russia, but may also affect many European nations.


2. Humanitarian situation

The Russian Federation's Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response continues to record the Kiev regime's criminal actions against civilians.

It has been reliably established that Ukrainian nationalists are preparing yet another cynical provocation with civilian deaths in Slavyansk in Donetsk People's Republic to accuse the Russian Armed Forces of carrying out indiscriminate strikes against civilian targets. For this purpose, residents of nearby residential quarters are being held in the building of the Vocational Agrarian Lyceum (Nauka Street) under the pretext of allegedly ensuring security. At the same time, the building is mined and the militants plan to blow it up when Russian troops launch artillery strikes on military targets in the city.

Russia warned that the provocation about "Russian atrocities" is to be widely disseminated by the Kiev regime in the Ukrainian and Western media.

In addition, Ukrainian Armed Forces, as usual, continue to use educational institutions and social facilities for military purposes:

a) in Kharkov, AFU units and Polish mercenaries are based in the premises of the National Technical University (Poltavskyi Shlyah Street), artillery and MLRS are deployed, and there has been no deliberate evacuation of residents from nearby houses;

b) in Nikolaev, AFU units and territorial defence are deployed in kindergarten No. 126 (Mira Avenue) and school No. 11 (Kitoboyev Street);

c) in Pevnichnoye in Donetsk People's Republic, a stronghold with barracks has been equipped in kindergarten No. 10 (Novaya Street) to house fighters of Ukrainian armed formations and foreign mercenaries; the approaches to the building are mined, but the local population is deliberately not informed of this;

d) in Shirokolanovka, Nikolaev Region, nationalists placed heavy weapons and armoured vehicles on the territory of the vocational school (Tsentralnaya Street) and placed sniper positions and MANPADs on the roofs.

Such actions by Kiev once again demonstrate an inhuman attitude towards the fate of the Ukrainian citizens and show a complete disregard for all norms of morality and international humanitarian law.

Russia emphasized once again that in carrying out the tasks of the special military operation, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation treat the local population extremely humanely and do not strike at civilian infrastructure facilities, unlike the Ukrainian armed formations.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 2,481,664 people have already been evacuated to Russia according to their will and desire, of which 390,578 are children.

More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centres continue to operate in the regions of the Russian Federation. The refugees are dealt with on an individual basis and are promptly assisted with various pressing issues relating to onward accommodation, employment assistance, places for children in kindergartens and educational institutions, and the provision of entitlements to social benefits.

3. Humanitarian aid distribution

So far, more than 45,000 tons of basic necessities, food and medicines have been prepared at the collection points. Since March 2, 2022, 42,450.9 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 1,292 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 3 actions in Zaporozhye region, as well as in Donetsk People's Republic, during which 215.2 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

On July 11, 5 humanitarian actions have been planned and are currently being carried out in Kharkov region, in Donetsk People's Republics, during which 272 tons of basic necessities, medicine and food will be distributed.

4. Situation in the Back Sea

There are no significant developments in this section. Situation remains the same. Kiev does not want to deactivate and remove sea mines from sea zones it has placed to block shipping of goods in both directions from Odessa and other sea ports controlled by Kiev – to Ukraine and from Ukraine, including Ukrainian grain abroad.

5. Developments on the battlefield

High-precision Iskander land-based missiles near Berezan in Odessa Region have destroyed launchers of the US-made Harpoon anti-ship missile system.

High-precision air-based missile strike near Artemovsk in Donetsk People's Republic has destroyed 180 servicemen and 26 pieces of military equipment of 30th mechanized brigade of AFU.

In addition, high-precision weapons used of the Russian Aerospace Forces have destroyed 12 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentrations, 4 amunition depots of the 79th Airborne Assault Brigade near Matveevka, NIkolaev Region, and AFU armoured vehicle repair and recovery facility near Seversk.

As part of counter-battery fighting, 2 platoons of Grad multiple-launch rocket systems and 2 artillery platoons of Hyacinth-B howitzers have been destroyed at firing positions near Dzerzhinsk, Donetsk People's Republic.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised 3 AFU command posts, 3 ammunition depots, 97 areas of Ukrainian artillery units at firing positions, as well as 111 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration.

In addition, 12 rockets of Uragan multiple-launch rocket system have been intercepted near Lisichansk in Lugansk People's Republic, Brazhkovka in Kharkov Region and Novaya Kakhovka in Kherson Region.

In total, 243 Ukrainian airplanes and 137 helicopters, 1,513 unmanned aerial vehicles, 354 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,046 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 741 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,135 field artillery and mortars, as well as 4,165 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.

6. The fate of foreign "wild geese" in Ukraine

Russian Defence Ministry monitors and records by name all foreign mercenaries who have arrived in Ukraine to take part in combat operations.

As it has already mentioned, contrary to the false claims of the Kiev regime about allegedly 20,000 of foreign mercenaries arriving to Ukraine, their actual number is much lower. Moreover, it is steadily declining.

Over the past three weeks, the number of mercenaries in Ukraine has decreased from 3,221 to 2,741 as a result of the offensive actions of the units of the Russian Armed Forces and people's militia of Lugansk and Donetsk Republics.

During this time, despite the arrival of another 151 mercenaries, 391 militants have been killed. Another 240 "wild geese" rushed to flee outside Ukraine.

Poland again tops the list in terms of the speed and number of fighters killed during the period, with 166 Polish fighters killed.

 Among the Georgian representatives, 50 "soldiers of fortune" were killed, the UK lost another 23 mercenaries in Ukraine. Also, 21 Romanian and 15 Canadian fighters were killed in three weeks.

Updated data on the count of foreign mercenaries currently in Ukraine has been published on the Russian Defence Ministry's information resources on the Internet.

Once again, the Russian Armed Forces are identifying foreign mercenaries even as they prepare to enter Ukraine.

E.g., on July 6, two British citizens, Colin Scott and Adrian Davis, and three US citizens, Michael Vujkovic, Andrew Fox and Oliver Short, arrived at the foreign mercenary collection and accommodation centre located at 1 Kozmian street in Poland's Zamosc city. Russian MoD advised these citizens to come to their senses and return home alive.

Russian MoD reminded that under International Humanitarian Law, all foreign mercenaries are non-combatants and are not considered as POW. The best option that awaits them if captured alive is a trial and maximum terms of imprisonment.

The DPR has lifted off a moratorium on death penalties. Its Criminal Code is tougher that that of Russian Criminal Code.

7. Some other views in the USA

According to the U.S. correspondent Mike Glenn (The Washington Times, Sunday, July 10, 2022), while Ukraine gets more than $ 8 billion of U.S. war supplies since the start of the Biden administration, analysts ask how long it can go on.

[https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/jul/10/pentagons-own-supply-military-aid-going-ukraine-wo/?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop].

 

The amount of military hardware sent to Ukraine pales in comparison to the $2 trillion that was spent in Afghanistan propping up a government in Kabul that collapsed in days once the U.S. military support dried up.

So far, the U.S. has provided Ukraine with 12 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and ammo; 126 M-777 howitzers of 155mm and more than 400,000 rounds; 20 Soviet-era Mi-17 helicopters; more than 6,500 Javelin anti-armor missiles; and more than 700 Switchblade tactical unmanned aerial systems.


My comment: 20 Soviet-era Mi-17 helicopters has been stolen by the USA from Afghanistan in violation of the relevant Afghan-Russian contract that prohibited to use these choppers by other states.


Mike Glenn quoted a number of the U.S. citizens who put some unpleasant questions to the current U.S. Administration.

 “A military analyst with Defense Priorities think tank said merely shipping billions of dollars of equipment to a war zone is not a strategy. “How does that tie into what the Ukraine military’s plans are? What is the end result of this? What are the expected consequences of this?” said retired Army Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis, a senior fellow with the libertarian-leaning think tank. “I can tell you that there are no answers to this. When you look at the cumulative total of all of it, it’s not a fraction of what Ukraine needs.”

Senator Mike Lee, Utah Republican noted: “We must always make sure Congress maintains its constitutional role of directing engagement in conflict and ensure that we are not spending unnecessary funds while in a time of historic inflation and ballooning national debt,” Mr. Lee said in a statement.

Senator John Kennedy, Louisiana Republican, introduced a bill that would establish a special inspector general for Ukraine to oversee the humanitarian, economic, and security assistance funding provided by the U.S. government. “Congress has already supported [Ukraine] with billions and billions of dollars in aid and military equipment,” Mr. Kennedy said. “America’s taxpayers deserve to know that their money is helping Ukraine beat back Russia effectively, and Congress needs to guarantee that oversight.”

A retired Marine Col. Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stated: “We’ve been sending a lot of equipment and we’re in the process of sending a lot of financial aid,” he said. “Ukraine is still a very inefficient, corrupt country. If people start seeing evidence of corruption - oligarchs buying yachts with American money - that would undermine support.”


My comment: the price tag of the U.S military aid to Ukraine cannot be compared with the much larger expenses the USA and the EU have already inflicted to themselves due to illegal economic sanctions and manipulations with natural energy resources


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 101. Ukrainian Army is fighting with civilians and cities

July 14, 2022

1. AFU terrorize civilians in Donbass

The DPR has completed collecting recent data on the dead and injured civilians on the territory it controls since February 24 till mid-July 2022: 247 civilians have been killed, including 16 children, and 1,493 civilians, including 83 children, have been wounded after indiscriminate and  barbaric fire by Armed Forces of Ukraine actively sponsored by the USA and NATO.

AFU also damaged in the DPR: 5452 residential houses; 1218 civil infrastructure facilities, including 72 medical facilities, 237 educational buildings, 445 social security assets, 32 critical infrastructure facilities, 432 electricity, water and gas supply facilities, and 667 vehicles.

In total, 5823 facts of shelling were recorded, 5494 of them with the use of heavy weapons – in many cases suoolied by the USA and NATO countries.

Against the DPR AFU fired 48,487 ammunition of various calibers, including 31 missiles from the Tochka-U missiles  (each having 15,000 bomblets), 14 BM-30 Smetch missiles, 149 BM-27 Hurricane MLRS missiles and 8,480 BM-21 Grad MLRS missiles.

The LPR reported about 291 civilians became victims of the AFU aggression, of which 72 people were killed and 219 were injured. As a result of the shelling, three children were killed and 19 children were injured.

The LPR recorded: 1030 attacks on the territory of the Republic by AFU using heavy weapons. In total, AFU used 10389 ammunition of various calibers, including missiles of the "Tochka-U" (33 missiles) and the American MLRS M142 HIMARS (21 missiles), MLRS (BM-21 "Grad", BM-27 "Uragan” (“Hurricane"), and BM-30 "Smerch") –  in all cases 2153 shells.


In Nova Kakhovka, hit by AFU heavy weapons July 11th, totally 65 houses, 3 factories and almost 250 shops were damaged by the shelling, the region’s military and civil Administration reported. The American satellite Worldview-2 was spotted over New Kakhovka three days before the AFU made such strike.

Every day AFU fire 250-450 shells against peaceful, non-military areas in Donbass, waging war against its citizens and Russians, against cities.

Comment: all these attacks are considered as acts of terrorism and genocide according to international law. Such cruel attacks clearly testify that AFU is not fighting with the Russian Armed Forces, but rather with armless and innocent civilians. All these facts also prove that Moscow made a just and a right decision last February to save people in Donbass from the third Ukrainian aggression. AFU should be renamed as “BFU or Barbaric Forces of Ukraine”.

2. AFU attempted to attack Zaporozhye nuclear power plant (NPP)

AFU used of the kamikaze drone near operational Zaporozhye NPP – the biggest in Europe, controlled by Russian troops.  In addition, one more drone was eliminated by the Russian air defense systems near the heating water utility in the city of Energodar, military-civilian Administration spokesman said later in the day (July 12).

 

On Tuesday, July 12, Ukrainian neo-Nazis with the use of unmanned aerial vehicles struck two 120mm mines on buildings located in the immediate vicinity of the Zaporozhye NPP, - said the head of the National Defense Control Center of the Russian Federation, Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev. This is not the first cynical provocation of the Kiev regime at radiation-hazardous facilities. It endangers millions of Ukrainian citizens, and not only them.

Comment: The purpose of the attack was to prevent the visit the IAEA delegation to the Zaporozhye NPP or to create a radioactive disaster.

Russian experts found extra nuclear material not to be used by this NPP for routine operation.

While the Kherson Region in south Ukraine has been completely liberated, while in the Zaporozhye Region, about 27% of the territory is still under the control of Kyiv.


3. Biden reveals U.S. goal in Ukraine

Moscow must suffer “a strategic failure” during its military campaign in Ukraine, US President Joe Biden has said.  

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “assault on Ukraine is a challenge to the peace and stability everywhere in the world,” Biden told reporters during his trip to Jerusalem on July 14. 

Biden has also promised to continue supporting Kiev. But will this irrelevant step help to defuze the crisis? Never.

The Israeli government announced this week that it would send helmets, flak jackets, gas masks and other protective gear to Ukraine. Israel, however, has so far refused to supply Kiev with offensive weapons or impose sanctions on Moscow.

Washington has not only supplied long-range High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to Kiev, but is providing intelligence on targets in Donbass and has even “unofficially” sent instructors to Ukraine to help with the hardware, the Russian Foreign Ministry claimed on July 14.

Two civilians have lost their lives, with another six sustaining injuries, as a result of Ukrainian shelling of the city of Donetsk, local authorities reported on July 14.  The leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Denis Pushilin, said that the Ukrainian military had hit a bus terminal. Among the victims are a young woman “who was going home from work” and a bus driver, the official revealed. Two civilians have lost their lives, with another six sustaining injuries, as a result of Ukrainian shelling of the city of Donetsk, local authorities reported the same day.

Pushilin added that a US-supplied М777 howitzer had been used in the attack against an area where there are no military installations.

 One such howitzer has been captured during the fight. It will be carefully studied in Moscow.

4. Russia-Ukraine grain talks outcome revealed

Moscow and Kiev have agreed to create a “coordination center” on grain exports in Istanbul, Turkey who arrange the venue for the relevant talks at Turkish military base has said.

Russia and Ukraine have agreed to establish a joint coordination center on grain exports in Istanbul that will include representatives from all parties, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar told local media following the four-way talks that also involved Turkey and the UNO.

“An agreement has been reached on technical issues such as joint controls at the destination points and … the safety of navigation on the transfer routes,” Akar told journalists. Russian and Ukrainian delegations “should meet again in Turkey next week,” he said, adding that the parties would “review all the details once again” during that meeting.

5. Situation on the battlefields

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine. The enemy suffers significant losses in all directions.

High-precision air-based missiles destroyed over 350 AFU soldiers and 20 units of military equipment of Kakhovka task force reserve at a shipyard in Nikolaev city.

As a result of high-precision weapons strike of the Russian Aerospace Forces on a temporary deployment point of artillery battalion of 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade in the eastern Nikolaev city, up to 70 servicemen of AFU artillery units, 10 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers and over 10 units of vehicles and special equipment were destroyed.

Sabotage and reconnaissance group of 242nd battalion of 241st Territorial Defence Brigade transferred from Kiev has been eliminated near Dementiyevka, Kharkov region. Five militants killed on the spot and 10 more Ukrainian servicemen captured.

Over the past 24 hours, Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed 2 command posts near Bereznevatoye in Nikolaev region, 1 ammunition depot near Seversk, as well as 7 armoured vehicles of 60th Mechanized Brigade of AFU near Bilogor'e, Zaporozhye Region.

As part of counter-battery fighting, 1 platoon of Uragan multiple rocket launchers have been destroyed at firing positions near Kostantinovka in Donetsk People's Republic.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralized 11 command posts, 102 areas of artillery units at firing positions, as well as 123 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration.

Russian fighters have shot down 3 aircraft of Ukrainian air force in the air: 1 Su-25 and 1 Su-24 near Novoukrainka and Barvenkovo in Donetsk People's Republic, as well as 1 MiG-29 near Bashtanka in Nikolaev region.

Russian air defence means have shot down another Su-25 of Ukrainian air force near Shirokoye, Nikolaev region.

Also, air defence means have shot down 9 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Dibrovnoye, Glubokoye, Luk'yantsy, Brazhkovka, Liptsy, Peschanoye in Kharkov region, Snegirevka in Nikolaev region and Karpovka in Donetsk People's Republic.

5 Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missiles have been intercepted over Veselaya Tarasovka, Pokrovskoye, Konstantinovka, Lisichansk in Lugansk People's Republic and Kostyrka in Kherson region.

18 Uragan multiple-launch rocket launchers have been shot down in the air near Topolskoye, Dolgen'koye, Suligovka in Kharkov region, Khartsyzsk, Avdeevka, Karpovka in Donetsk People's Republic, Rodakovo, Smeloye, Zimogor'e, Lotikovo in Lugansk People's Republic and Lugansk city.

High-precision strikes near Bereznegovatoye, Nikolaev Region, Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk, Donetsk People's Republic, hit temporary deployment points of units of 35th Marine Brigade, 54th Mechanized Brigade, 81st Airmobile Brigade and 109th Territorial Defence Brigade.

As a result of the strikes, the total losses of these formations amounted to up to 1,000 personnel and more than 100 pieces of military equipment.

High-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit temporary deployment point of 14th Mechanized Brigade battalion manned by nationalists and foreign mercenaries near Chasov Yar, Donetsk People's Republic. The attacks have resulted in the destruction of 43 militants and about 170 injured.

Russian army aviation hit temporary deployment point of 97th Battalion of 60th Mechanized Brigade of AFU near Malaya Tokmachka, Zaporozhye Region, with high-precision missiles. The attacks have resulted in the destruction of 30 militants and about 37 injured.

Conflicts and clashes with the use of weapons have increased among nationalist fighters.

On July 13, more than 200 fighters of the 226th Kraken nationalist formation refused to follow the command's order to move to the Kramatorsk area and claimed a "transfer" to the Kharkov city' territorial defence. During the ensuing fight with the commanders and the ensuing gunfight, six militants were killed.

High-precision sea-based Kalibr missiles destroyed multiple rocket launcher vehicles of 45th Artillery Brigade of AFU hidden in hangars at the high voltage equipment plant in Zaporozhye city.

In addition, high-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed 4 command posts, including those of 61st Infantry Jaeger Brigade of AFU near Bereznegovatoye in Nikolaev Region and 80th Airborne Assault Brigade near Kramatorsk, 3 ammunition depots near Soledar, Tat'yanovka in Donetsk People's Republic and Nikolaev, 1 fuel storage facility for military equipment near Kharkov, and 21 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration.

As part of the counter-battery fighting, 1 battery of multiple rocket launchers near Slavyansk, one platoon of MLRS near Nikolaevka in Donetsk People's Republic, and one artillery platoon of US-made M-777 howitzers at firing positions in Pervomaiskyi in Kharkov Region were destroyed.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery hit 19 command posts, 78 areas of artillery units in firing positions and 232 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration.

Russian Aerospace Forces fighters have shot down 2 aircraft of Ukrainian air force in the air: 1 Su-24 near Slavyansk and 1 MiG-29 near Troitskoye, Donetsk People's Republic.

Russian air defence means destroyed 12 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Balakleya, Izyum, Lozovaya, Shchurovka in Kharkov Region, Snegirevka, Novaya Kakhovka in Nikolaev Region, Belogorovka, Karmazinovka, Slavyanoserbsk, Mikhailovka in Lugansk People's Republic and Derilovo in Donetsk People's Republic.

In addition, 2 Tochka-U ballistic missiles and 6 rockets of Uragan multiple-launch rocket system were intercepted near Novaya Kakhovka in Nikolaev Region.


In total, 249 Ukrainian airplanes and 137 helicopters, 1,534 unmanned aerial vehicles, 354 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,050 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 744 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,145 field artillery and mortars,

as well as 4,292 special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 104. Medvedev: Ukraine may confront with the Doomsday

July 18, 2022

1. Ex-President Medvedev reminded Ukraine of the Doomsday

Some top-ranking Ukrainian politicians are trying to threaten the Russian Federation, meaning an attack on the Crimea, including the Crimean Bridge, but if something like this happens, then judgment day will come for them all, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev said at a meeting with veterans in Volgograd.

“Individual exalted, bloody clowns who pop up there from time to time with some statements are also trying to threaten us, meaning the attack on Crimea and so on. In this regard, I want to say that it is quite obvious that they understand the consequences of such statements. And the consequences are obvious that if something like this happens, for all of them there, the Day of Judgment [Doomsday] will come at once. Very fast and heavy. It will be very difficult to take cover,” Medvedev stressed.

“In some ways they envy us, our capabilities, in some ways, they probably fear us, but the most important thing for them is that conceptual task that does not change from year to year and passes from one government to another,” Medvedev concluded.

2. Lavrov: Germany and France ‘killed’ Minsk agreements

Berlin and Paris torpedoed the 2015 ceasefire deal for Donbass by shielding Kiev’s non-compliance, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said in an article published in Izvestia newspaper [the full text is posted at the MFA website: «Staged incidents as the Western approach to doing politics»; July 18, 2022// https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1822333/].

Russia, Germany and France brokered the 2015 Minsk agreements between Ukraine and Donbass, which were designed to put an end to hostilities. But according to Lavrov, Berlin and Paris failed to ensure Kiev’s compliance.

The Russian Foreign Minister noted that former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko admitted the Minsk agreements meant nothing for Kiev, and Ukraine used them only to buy time. Lavrov said: “If anyone doubted that the Minsk Package was anything but yet another fake, Petr Poroshenko dispelled this myth by saying on June 17, 2022: “The Minsk Agreements did not mean anything to us, and we had no intention to carry them out… our goal was to remove the threat we faced… and win time in order to restore economic growth and rebuild the armed forces. We achieved this goal. Mission accomplished for the Minsk Agreements.” 

Lavrov also mentioned that in December 2019, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had a chance to fulfil the Minsk agreements at the so-called Normandy format summit held in Paris. After negotiations with leaders of Russia, Germany and France, Zelensky pledged to resolve issues surrounding the special status of Donbass. “Of course, he did nothing, and Berlin and Paris were shielding him once again,” he noted.

Lavrov added: “In December 2019, Zelensky got a chance to carry out the Minsk Agreements following the Normandy format summit in Paris. In the outcome document adopted at the highest level, the Ukrainian President undertook to resolve matters related to the special status of Donbass. Of course, he did not do anything, while Berlin and Paris once again covered up for him. The document and all the publicity accompanying its adoption turned out to be no more than a fake narrative promoted by Ukraine and the West to win some time for supplying more weapons to the Kiev regime, which follows Petr Poroshenko’s logic to the letter”.

Comment: So, President Zelensky and his predecessor Poroshenko publicly admitted that they never had any plans to implement the Minsk accord. They both used the arrangement to get more offensive weapons from the USA and NATO, and to enhance the Armed Forces of Ukraine, preparing them to launch the third large-scale aggression against population Donbass who decided not to live inside a neo-Nazi, undemocratic Ukraine.

Lavrov concluded: “If members of the western alliance are unable to live according to this principle, are not ready to build a truly universal architecture of equal security and cooperation, they should leave everyone alone, stop using threats and blackmail to recruit those who want to live on their own wits and acknowledge the right to freedom of choice by independent self-respecting countries. This is what democracy is all about, the real democracy, not one played out on a shabbily built political stage”.

3. Dmitry Kuleba actually confirmed Zelensky‘s obstruction to the talks

Kiev will be ready for talks with Moscow only after the latter’s "defeat on the battlefield," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said.

"Let us first change the situation on the front, and then we will speak. Everyone understands that the talks are directly linked with the situation on the front. I say it to all partners: Russia is to sit down at the negotiating table only after the defeat on the battlefield. Otherwise, it will be a language of ultimatums again," he said in an interview with Forbes Ukraine, which came out on July 18.

According to the Ukrainian top diplomat, President Vladimir Zelensky has a principled position on this matter. "He doesn’t rule out possible talks, but there are no grounds for them now,” Kuleba noted.

The Russian-Ukrainian talks have been conducted since February 28. Several meetings were organized in Belarus, then the sides continued negotiations in the videoconference format. The last direct round of talks was held in Istanbul on March 29.

On April 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin told journalists that Kiev had deviated from the previous agreements and drove the process into a dead end. On April 20, Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow had handed over to Kiev a clearly-worded draft document on agreements and was waiting for a response.

On July 18 the Presidential aide Yury Ushakov stated that so far, there is no interest on the part of Kiev, as well as on the part of Western states to conduct the talks with Moscow. The Ukrainian delegation has not established any contacts with its Russian counterpart since the Istanbul round, he added.

4. LPR will send the fragments of U.S. HIMARS MLRS to the Russian IC

In an interview with RIA Novosti, an officer of the LPR representative office in the JCCC, Aleksey Getmansky, said that, if necessary, the agency would transfer fragments of American HIMARS MLRS, including those found at the site of attacks by Kyiv troops in Alchevsk, to investigators of the RF IC [Russian Investigation Committee], as evidence of war crimes committed by the Ukrainian Army, Aleksey Getmansky, an officer of the representative office, told RIA Novosti.

Comment: committed not only by the Ukrainian Army, but committed also by the USA who has supplied such barbaric weapon used against civilians in Donbass. The USA became a direct participant in atrocities conducted in this area.

“These are the fragments found at the scene of the incident in the city of Alchevsk, in this case, these are stabilizer blocks with plumage fired from the M142 HIMARS MLRS as a result of the shelling of the city of Alchevsk.

We are cooperating with the Investigation Committee of the Russian Federation, we are assisting them in removing fragments and fragments of any from the scene of the incident, when there is already a trial and a tribunal over Ukrainian criminals, this will all be an evidence base”, said the mission officer.

5. News from battlefields

By July 17 high-precision attacks launched by Russian Aerospace Forces at a provisional base of 92nd Mechanised Brigade deployed in Chuguyev (Kharkov region) have resulted in the elimination of up to 200 servicemen of 2nd and 3rd battalions, as well as over 10 armoured vehicles.

In view of considerable losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), there is an increasing number of desertion cases. A rifle company of 58th Battalion from 104th Separate Territorial Defence Brigade operationally subordinated to the commander of 108th Battalion from 10th Mountain Assault Brigade that operated near Verkhnekamentskoye (Donetsk People's Republic) completely abandoned its positions and withdrew towards unknown destination.

High-precision long-range air-based missiles have destroyed one depot in one of the buildings of an industrial entity in Odessa that storaged Harpoon anti-ship missiles delivered to Ukraine by NATO countries.

High-precision ground-based armament has destroyed one launching ramp and one reloading vehicle of U.S.-manufactured HIMARS MLRS deployed near Krasnoarmeysk (Donetsk People's Republic).

Attack launched at the base of 97th Battalion from 60th Mechanised Infantry Brigade of the AFU deployed near Novodanilovka (Zaporozhye Region) has resulted in the elimination of up to 65 nationalists and over 10 special motor vehicles.

In addition, high-precision attacks of Russian Aerospace Forces have eliminated 4 command posts, including those of a battalion from 59th Mechanised Infantry Brigade near Zelyony Gay (Nikolayev Region) and of 242nd Battalion from 241st Territorial Defence Brigade near Dergachi (Kharkov Region), 6 munitions depots near Bondarnoye and Vasyukovka (Donetsk People's Republic), Malinovka (Zaporozhye Region), Chervonoye (Sumy Region), as well as 19 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment, including 4 provisional bases of foreign mercenaries in Konstantinovka (Kharkov Region) and Dzerzhinsk (Donetsk People's Republic).

Within counter-battery warfare, 1 MRLS platoon, 9 Giantsint-B artillery howitzer and D-30 gun platoons near Verkhnekamenskoye, Serebryanka, Bondarnoye, Dronovka and Zvanovka (Donetsk People's Republic), as well as artillery units at their firing positions in 107 areas.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised 21 command posts, 189 AFU manpower and military equipment concentration areas.

Fighter aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces have shot down 1 Ukrainian Mi-17 helicopter near Slavyansk (Donetsk People's Republic).

Russian air defence means have destroyed one Su-25 airplane of Ukrainian Air Forces near Velikaya Kamyshevakha (Kharkov region) and one Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle near Bolshiye Prokhody (Kharkov region).

One Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missile has been intercepted near Dmitrenko (Kherson region), 8 projectiles launched by Uragan and HIMARS MLRS have been intercepted near Izyum (Kharkov region), Tavriya (Zaporozhye Region) and Alchevsk (Lugansk People's Republic).

High-precision air-based missiles in Kostantinovka, Donetsk People's Republic, have neutralized temporary deployment point of mercenaries of so-called Ukrainian "Foreign Legion". The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 250 military personnel and 12 special vehicles.

By July 18 as a result of high-precision long-range air-based weaponry strike on temporary deployment point of battalion of 118th Territorial Defence Brigade of AFU in Vitovo, Cherkasskaya Region, up to 60 nationalists, 2 multiple rocket launchers and 4 artillery mounts have been destroyed.

A facility used by Ukraine’s “foreign legion” in Donbass has been targeted in a Russian missile strike that killed up to 250 mercenaries and destroyed a number of military vehicles, Moscow’s Ministry of Defense announced on July 18. “A temporary mercenary deployment point of the so-called Ukrainian ‘foreign legion’ was hit with high-precision air-launched missiles in the settlement of Konstantinovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic,” the ministry claimed. “Up to 250 foreign militants, seven armored vehicles, as well as 12 special purpose vehicles were taken out,” it added.

More than 10 Ukrainian Grad MLRS and 8 armoured vehicles have been destroyed near Udachnoye railway station in Donetsk People's Republic.

Also, two Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopters have been destroyed and two more helicopters suffered significant damage as a result of rocket artillery strike on AFU field airfield near Novyi Donbass, Donetsk People's Republic.

As part of counter-battery warfare, 2 batteries of Uragan MLRS near Predtechino, 3 platoons of Grad MLRS, 14 artillery platoons of Hyacinth-B howitzers and D-30 guns near Seversk, Verkhnekamenskoye, Serebryanka, Dronovka and Zvanovka, Donetsk People's Republic have been neutralized.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have hit 14 command posts, including 28th Mechanized Brigade near Nikolaev, 60th Infantry Brigade near Novoaleksandrovka in Zaporozhye Region and 15th Battalion of 58th AFU Motorized Infantry Brigade in Pokrovskoye in Donetsk People's Republic, as well as 286 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration.

One Buk-M1 self-propelled launcher near Kramatorsk in Donetsk People's Republic, 3 depots with missile and artillery weapons and one fuel depot near Novoaleksandrovka in Zaporozhye Region have been destroyed.

Russian air defence means have shot down 6 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Peschanoye, Chervonyi Oskol, Liptsy in Kharkov Region, Korsun' in Donetsk People's Republic and Novokamenka in Kherson Region.

Two shells of Uragan MLRS have been also intercepted near Stakhanov in Lugansk People's Republic.


In total, by July 18, 257 Ukrainian airplanes and 142 helicopters, 1,564 unmanned aerial vehicles, 356 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,099 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 759 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,157 field artillery and mortars, as well as 4,392 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 105. Kiev destroys huge areas of grain field crops in Donbass

July 19, 2022

1. Humanitarian situation

On one hand, Russia, and other members of the Russian Federation as well as DPR, LPR, pay specific attention to improvement of the humanitarian situation in DPR and LPR, and many areas in Ukraine. Unfortunately, on the other, Kiev disregards humanitarian issue in many respects.

Russian MoD continues to record numerous facts of criminal actions by Kiev regime against civilians, as well as the use of civilian infrastructure for military purposes by Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU):

a) in Kharkov, AFU units are stationed on the territory of school No 8 (Saltovskoye Highway) artillery and MLRS positions have been deployed, without intentionally evacuating local residents from nearby houses;

b) in Pavlograd, Dnepropetrovsk Region, a nationalist stronghold has been deployed in school No 6 (Heroes of Ukraine Street), with ammunition depots in the basement;

c) in Dobropol'e, Donetsk People's Republic, soldiers of Ukrainian armed formations have equipped strongholds and ammunition depots on the lower and upper floors of apartment buildings (Solnechnyi Quarter Street); they have placed MLRS and armoured vehicles in yards; residents are not allowed to leave their flats; people are actually used by nationalists as human shield.

Furthermore, despite the threat of a food crisis and disregarding the well-being of their own people, the Kiev authorities are carrying out further provocations at agricultural facilities to accuse the Russian military of allegedly indiscriminate strikes against civilian targets and threatening Ukraine's food security:

a) in Kalinovka, Bakhmut district of Donetsk People's Republic, neo-Nazis have deployed artillery and MLRS at a grain storage facility, from which they systematically shell positions of the Russian Armed Forces, provoking them to return fire;

b) in Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, Kharkov and Kherson regions, AFU servicemen together with fighters from nationalist battalions are purposefully torching fields with crops using helicopters and artillery. According to official data collected in Donbass, Kiev artificially creating the issue of ‘Ukrainian grain blocked for export’, set fire on huge areas of grain vegetation in the areas belonging to Donbass. 200,000 tonnes of grain belonging to Donbass have been deliberately burned by AFU. Ukrainian hypocrisy and barbarism. 

These and other similar provocations by the Ukrainian authorities are taking place against a backdrop of ongoing hysteria by so called civilised West and their false accusations against the Russian Federation of artificially creating a food crisis in the world. Russian MoD warned in advance that fabricated material about alleged "Russian atrocities" is soon to be spread widely through the Western and Ukrainian media.

Such actions by Kiev once again demonstrate an inhuman attitude towards the fate of the Ukrainian citizens and show a complete disregard for all norms of morality and international humanitarian law.

Despite Russian repeated statements, these and other such facts, which flagrantly violate international humanitarian law, continue to go unheeded by the international community and international organisations.

Russia once again called on the United Nations, the World Health Organization, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other international organizations to stop turning a blind eye to the blatant crimes committed by Kiev authorities against their own people, to influence official Kiev and to take effective measures to prevent AFU from using civilian and medical infrastructure for military purposes.

2. Navigation in the Black Sea is still blocked by Kiev

Still 70 foreign vessels from 16 countries remain blocked by Kiev in six Ukrainian sea ports, namely in Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhniy in northern part of the Black Sea.


These figures have not changed since May 25th, 2022 (see Report # 69).


The threat of shelling and high mine danger posed by official Kiev prevents vessels from entering the high seas unhindered.

As a result of the measures taken by the Russian Navy, the mine threat in the waters of the port of Mariupol has been eliminated and measures are being taken to restore the port infrastructure.

The Russian Armed Forces have created conditions for the operation of two maritime humanitarian corridors, which are safe lanes for ships:

a) in the Black Sea - to leave Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhnyi ports in a south-westerly direction from Ukraine's territorial sea, 139 miles long and 3 miles wide;

b) in the Sea of Azov, to leave Mariupol port 115 miles long and 2 miles wide towards the Black Sea.

Detailed information in English and Russian on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridor is broadcast daily every 15 minutes on VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels in English and Russian.

At the same time, the Kiev authorities continue to avoid engaging with representatives of states and ship-owning companies to resolve the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area. The danger to navigation from Ukrainian mines activated by Kiev drifting off their anchors along the coasts of Black Sea states remains.

3. Situation on the battlefields

Kiev failed to regain control over any territory captured by the Allied Armed Forces (Russian, and DPR/LPR troops). They are constantly moving forward. One of obvious result is that Ukrainian intensity of shelling of populated areas in Donbass reduced, but has not stopped completely.

According to official data from the DPR JCCC, since the beginning of the Special Military Operation (SMO) on July 19, 1,211 civilians, including 93 children, have received injuries of various degrees on the territory within the borders before the beginning of the SMO. On the territory liberated during the operation, 1,495 civilians were injured, including 83 children.

5,628 residential buildings, 1,245 civil infrastructure facilities, 73 medical institutions, 242 educational institutions, 461 social security facilities, 32 critical infrastructure facilities, 436 electricity, water and gas supply facilities, 677 vehicles were damaged.

During the 153 days of escalation of the DPR JCCC, 6,153 facts of firing were recorded, including 5,824 with the use of heavy weapons. In total, the enemy fired 51,364 ammunition of various calibers, including 31 missiles from the Tochka-U ballistic missiles system, 14 missiles of the BM-30 Smerch MLRS, 152 MLRS missiles BM-27 “Uragan” and 9028 MLRS missiles BM-21 “Grad”.

At the same time high-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces have neutralized temporary deployment point of the Right Sector Nazi militia in Kamyshevakha, Zaporozhye Region. Up to 200 militants have been killed.

High-precision weapons have hit positions of battalion of 81st Airmobile Brigade of AFU near Dolina, Donetsk People's Republic. More than 60 personnel have been destroyed, as well as 7 armoured vehicles and 1 ammunition depot.

In addition, a high-precision weapons strike have destroyed ammunition depots for weapons supplied by the US and European countries near Belen'koye, Odessa Region.

To replenish the significant losses in personnel and equipment incurred by 66th and 72nd mechanized, 58th motorized infantry and 10th Mountain Assault Brigades of AFU operating in the Soledar direction, the forced mobilization of residents of Artemovsk, Chasov Yar, Soledar, Dzerzhinsk and other nearby settlements is under way. Vehicles are seized from local residents to equip the formations.

Within 24 hours, 4 platoons of Grad multiple-launch rocket systems, 13 artillery platoons of D-20 howitzers and 9 artillery platoons of D-30 guns have been neutralized in Seversk, Serebryanka, Dronovka, Opytnoye, Krasnoye, Zvanovka, Ivano-Dar'evka, Paraskovievka and Ivangrad, Donetsk People's Republic.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralized 7 command posts, including 81st Aero-mobile Brigade near Kramatorsk, Donetsk People's Republic, 60th Infantry Brigade near Kirovo, 128th Mountain Assault Brigade near Vozdvizhevka, Zaporozhye Region, 5 ammunition depots in Vasyukovka, Velyka Novoselka, Donetsk People's Republic, Novoaleksandrovka, Zaporozhye region, Pokrovskoye, Dnepropetrovsk Region, 2 fuel depots near Soledar and Novgorodskoye, DPR, as well as 197 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration.

Russian air defence means have shot down 1 Mi-24 helicopter of Ukrainian air force near Pokrovskoye, DPR, and 4 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Peschanoye, Petropavlovka, Topolskoye and Izyum, Kharkov Region.

In addition, 4 Tochka-U ballistic missiles and 5 rockets of Uragan multiple-launch rocket system have been intercepted near Skadovsk and Novaya Kakhovka, Kherson Region and Chervonyi Oskol and Topolskoye, Kharkov Region.


In total since February 24th, 257 Ukrainian airplanes and 143 helicopters, 1,568 unmanned aerial vehicles, 356 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,106 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 759 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,160 field artillery and mortars, as well as 4,392 special military vehicles were destroyed during the Special Military Operation.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 106. Lavrov: Russia can redraw front line deeper in Ukraine

July 20, 2022

1. Western weapon supplies will spur Russia to push forward and to change front line in Ukraine

The use of Western-supplied heavy weapons by Kiev will force Russia to move deeper into Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told RT and Sputnik on July 20.

Lavrov noted that when negotiators met in Istanbul, Turkey on March 29-30, they were discussing “one geography,” referring to the areas controlled by Russia and the forces of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR). “Our willingness to accept Ukrainian suggestions was based on the geography as of the end of March, 2022,” the minister clarified. “Now the geography is different. We’re not talking about the DPR, the LPR. We’re talking about Kherson Region, Zaporozhye Region and a number of other territories, and this process is ongoing.”

Lavrov accused the West of exacerbating the conflict by “pumping” Ukraine with heavy weapons, including M142 HIMARS MLRS and long-range munitions.“It means that we will have to put the line even further,” he said, adding that Moscow will not allow Ukrainian troops to threaten either Russia, or two Donbass republics.


In his words, deliveries of long-range weapons by the Western countries to Kiev will expand the geography of the Special Military Operation


During its offensive, Russian and allied troops captured parts of southern Ukraine and pushed Ukrainian troops out of many towns in Donbass. The peace talks, meanwhile, have remained stalled since the end of March, as Western politicians say that Kiev should not be pressured into giving up territory to Moscow.

 Russian Foreign Minister shared his views about the risks of a nuclear war with the West and how the Western-supplied heavy weapons affect the fighting on the ground, as well as the decision-making in Moscow.

Lavrov also discussed the effects of the sanctions on the European economy and the delivery of Russian gas to EU member states.

The same day the Russian Embassy in Washington released a statement, saying that people living in Russian-controlled areas will “decide on their future independently, by themselves.”

The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has set up a specialized commission to control the use of foreign weapons. People’s Deputy Oleksiy Goncharenko announced this on Telegram.

2.  AFU tried to hit Zaporozhye NPP four times July 20

The authorities of city of Energodar reported four attacks by Ukrainian UAVs on the Zaporozhye NPP in a day on July 20th. This was reported to RIA Novosti by the press service of the city Administration. Energodar is located very close to this NPP.

It is reported that the last attack was recorded at 16:01 (Moscow time). The building located nearby was damaged.

The Administration of the Zaporozhye Region also reported that the reactor part of the NPP was not damaged as a result of the attack, the radiation level is normal.

What will be the reaction of the IAEA?

3. Situation on the battlefields

During last 24 hours AFU shelled thirteen DPR settlements.

AFU fired 437 shells – twice as less than in the past when banderists fired more than 800 shells a day. In recent case AFU used Grad MLRS, gun artillery of 155 (it means of NATO caliber), 152 and 122 mm caliber, as well as 120 mm mortars.

One civilian was wounded as a result of the shelling. Nine residential buildings and two civilian infrastructure facilities were damaged.

At the same time Russian troops together with the troops of DPR and LPR continue to wipe out ultra-Nazi in Ukraine and demilitarize it for the sake of enhancing European security.

High-precision weapons strikes of the Russian Aerospace Forces against missile and artillery weapons depot of 14th Mechanized Brigade of AFU in Soledar in DPR have destroyed 19 units of armoured equipment and up to 40 nationalists.

High-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces have destroyed US-made Harpoon missile launcher near Usatovo, Odessa Region.

High-precision, long-range sea-based weapons have hit temporary deployment point of 35th Marine Brigade in Dachnoye, Odessa Region, where reservists for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) were being trained. More than 60 personnel have been destroyed, as well as more than 10 foreign-made military vehicles.

As part of counter-battery warfare, 5 platoons of Grad multiple-launch rocket systems of 48th and 58th motorized infantry brigades, 6 artillery platoons of D-20 howitzers and 9 artillery platoons of D-30 mounts in Kurakhovo, Novomikhailovka, Konstantinovka and Georgievka in DPR have been neutralized.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have hit 7 command posts, including units of 63rd Mechanized and 61st Infantry Brigades near Yavkino, Bereznevatoe, Visunsk and Kaluga in Nikolayev Region, 128th Mountain Assault Brigade in Verkhnekamenskoye district in Donetsk People's Republic, and 92nd Mechanized Brigade in Dolzhik district of Kharkov Region.

8 depots with missile and artillery weapons and ammunition have been destroyed near Praskoviyivka, Kostyantinovka, Artemovsk, Novovorontsovka in Kherson Region and Ternovatoye in Zaporozhye Region, as well as two fuel depots of 54th AFU Mechanized Brigade near Kurakhovo in DPR.

Russian Aerospace Forces' fighter aviation have shot down 2 Ukrainian air force aircraft in an aerial battle: 1 MiG-29 near Snigirevka, Nikolaev Region, and 1 Su-25 near Dobropol'e, Donetsk People's Republic.

Russian air defence means have shot down 4 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Blagodatovka, Yavorskoye, Kharkov Region, and Zugres, Donetsk People's Republic.

In addition, 9 projectiles of Uragan multiple-launch rocket system have been intercepted near Vasilenkovo in Kharkov Region, as well as Novoraisk, Krasnosel'skoye, Stepnoye, and Taras Shevchenko in Kherson Region.


Since February 24, 2022, in total, 259 Ukrainian airplanes and 143 helicopters, 1,572 unmanned aerial vehicles, 356 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,135 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 760 MLRS, 3,166 field artillery and mortars,

 as well as 4,410 special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 107. Putin predicts ‘revolutionary’ changes in the world

July 21, 2022

1. Putin’s predicament

Only “truly sovereign” states will succeed after “enormous” geopolitical transformations, the Russian leader claimed. A new epoch of world history is approaching and only “truly sovereign” states will be able to succeed in the changed environment, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on July 21.

Speaking at a business forum, he claimed that “truly revolutionary,” “enormous” changes would lead to the creation of a new, “harmonious, fairer and more community-focused and safe” world order. In this new epoch, “only truly sovereign states can ensure high growth dynamics,” he said.

By the term ‘sovereignty’ the Russian president means “freedom of national development, and thus of each person individually,” as well as “technological, cultural, intellectual, educational viability of the state” and a “responsible, active and nationally minded, nationally oriented civil society.”

Such a state, the President said, will serve as an example for others when it comes to “the standards and quality of people’s life, the protection of traditional values and high humanistic ideals.”

This kind of world is in sharp contrast to the Western-dominated unipolar world order, which, in Putin’s opinion, is “becoming a brake on the development of our civilization.”

He accused the West of being “racist and neo-colonial,” saying that its ideology “is becoming increasingly more like totalitarianism.” The president argued that despite attempts by Western elites to preserve the existing world order, the changes are “irreversible.”

Putin has been discussing the end of the “unipolar” world for a long time. In his famous 2007 Munich Security Conference speech, the Russian president said that “the unipolar world that had been proposed after the Cold War did not take place.” He explained that a world of “one master, one sovereign” is destructive not only for everyone within the system but also for the sovereign itself. He accused the US of neglecting the “basic principles of international law” and stressed that “unilateral and frequently illegitimate actions” had never solved any problems.

2.  Lavrov’s remarks made on July 20. 2022: full translation

In Report # 106 some highlights of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s interview to a number of Russian news agencies have been published. Here is a link to full transcript of his remarks posted in English [ https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1822901/].

3. Russia awaits IAEA’s reaction to Ukrainian attacks on NPP

Kiev regime's provocations against Ukraine's nuclear energy facilities continue unabated, threatening their safety.

Russia has sent an appeal to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over the Ukrainian army’s attacks on the Zaporozhye NPP and is awaiting its reaction, Russian Foreign Ministry said at a briefing on July 21.

"We have already addressed the leadership of the IAEA’s Secretariat over this incident and are expecting the appropriate reaction on the part of the agency," the MFA announced.

According to the Ministry, the Ukrainian attacks on the Zaporozhye NPP confirm Kiev’s goal to create conditions for a nuclear catastrophe for all of Europe. "Ukraine continues provocations in order to create threats for nuclear facilities”.

On July 18, the Ukrainian armed forces attacked the premises of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant using a drone. Ukrainian nationalist formations actually used two kamikaze drones to attack facilities at the Zaporozhye NPP (one drone was destroyed on approach to the plant). It was only by sheer luck that this did not lead to damage to the plant's equipment and a man-made disaster. The strike was delivered several dozen meters away from the constructions that are critically important for the NPP’s security - storage facilities for spent nuclear fuel and a reactor cooling reservoir. Only by lucky coincidence this did not result in any damage to the plant’s equipment and a man-made catastrophe," Russian MFA emphasized.

The Foreign Ministry noted that on July 20, the Ukrainian army attacked that NPP using the drones again: namely four of them [see Report # 106 dated July 20].  During that strike 11 staffers of the NPP have been wounded, including four persons with heavy injuries.

It has been pointed out that such a catastrophe won’t be just a local problem. "The responsibility for the possible consequences of these actions by the Kiev regime rests both with Ukraine and with the states that provide military support to the criminal regime," Russian MFA noted.

Comment: the USA and all other NATO countries have denounced such Ukrainian dangerous acts

4. Humanitarian situation

Russian troops continue to record numerous facts of criminal actions by Kiev regime against civilians, as well as the use of medical infrastructure for military purposes by Ukrainian armed formations:

a) in Kostantinovka, Donetsk People's Republic, nationalists have equipped strongholds at Municipal Hospital No. 1 (O.Tikhogo Avenue), armoured vehicles and artillery have been placed in the surrounding area, and neo-Nazis are detaining staff and patients in the hospital under the pretext of alleged security, effectively using them as human shields;

b) in Zaliznoye, Donetsk People's Republic, militants of Aidar nationalist battalion have equipped barracks and firing points in a polyclinic building (Pioneer Avenue), the approaches to the facility are mined, but the local population is deliberately not informed about this;

c) in Toretsk (Tereshkova Street) and Druzhkovka (Donskoy Quarter Street), Donetsk People's Republic, AFU units are stationed in the buildings of medical preventive centres, weapons and ammunition depots are located, and armoured vehicles, artillery and MLRS are placed in the territories adjacent to the medical facilities;

d) in Nikolaev, AFU servicemen have equipped a stronghold in the building of a polyclinic (Pogranichnaya Street) and placed a large amount of military equipment in the immediate vicinity of the facility, without evacuating residents of nearby houses.

Despite repeated statements by the Russian Federation's Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response, to date, all such facts remain ignored by the World Health Organisation and the world community.

5. Medvedev: Ukrainian troops should be pushed back not only from Donetsk, but further

Dmitry Medvedev, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman, said it was necessary to move the Ukrainian Armed Forces not only away from Donetsk, but also further. He made such statement during a meeting with displaced persons from Donbass and Ukraine in the Rostov Region, Interfax quoted him as saying.

“Not only from Donetsk, now it is wider. (…) Further away,” Medvedev said on a call for the AFU to move faster away from the DNR capital so that the shelling would stop.

The politician assured the displaced that all the tasks of the special operation to demilitarize and denationalize Ukraine would be fulfilled.

6. The UK to pump more arms into Ukraine

The shipment will include 1,600 anti-tank weapons and 50,000 artillery shells.

The UK will send Ukraine anti-tank weapons, drones, artillery guns and tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition, Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told Parliament on Thursday. Ukraine will receive more than 20 M109 and 26 L119 artillery guns, as well as counter-battery radar systems and more than 50,000 rounds of ammunition for its existing Soviet-era artillery systems.

The UK will also send 1,600 anti-tank weapons as well as drones, including hundreds of “loitering aerial munitions,” more commonly known as “suicide drones.”

The arms will be sent to Ukraine in the coming weeks, and Wallace’s announcement comes several weeks after outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson pledged an additional £1 billion ($1.2bn) in military support to Vladimir Zelensky’s government. In total, the UK has spent £2.3 billion on weapons and training for Kiev’s military since Russia’s military operation in Ukraine began in February.

This money has already paid for nearly 7,000 NLAW, Javelin and other anti-tank missiles, 16,000 artillery rounds, six mobile anti-air missile launchers, as well as a number of M270 rocket artillery systems and 120 armored vehicles.

Comment: by supplying Ukraine with more arms the UK and other NATO countries will complicate the survival of Ukraine.

7. Developments on the battlefields

Despite these deliveries Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) continue to suffer considerable losses.

According to verified data, the high-precision attack launched by Russian Aerospace Forces on July 16 at a provisional base deployed by nationalists in Imperiya recreation centre located in Konstantinovka (Odessa region) has resulted in the elimination of over 600 militants, including up to 120 foreign mercenaries.

In addition, according to precised data, the attack launched on July 17 at a provisional base of a unit of AFU deployed at a vegetable warehouse in Nikolayev has resulted in the elimination of over 320 nationalists.

In view of considerable losses in the eastern part of Ukraine, residents of the western regions mobilised to the AFU refuse to be sent to Donbass. All the servicemen of 100th Territorial Defence Brigade located in Lutsk (Volyna Region) have refused to be involved in operations. AFU command disarmed the brigade, the initiators were arrested, the formation would be reformed.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery continue launching attacks at the military facilities in Ukraine.

The list of neutralised targets includes 9 command posts, including one of 59th Marines Brigade in Nikolayev where foreign mercenaries were deployed, as well as one of 14th Mechanised Brigade near Artyomovsk and the HQ of the Security Service of Ukraine in Kramatorsk.

6 missile, artillery armament and munitions depots have been destroyed near Konstantinovka, Fyodorovka (DPR), Maliyevka (Dnepropetrovsk Region) and Nikolayev.

The list of targets neutralised within the counter-battery warfare includes one Uragan MLRS battery and one Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer battery with a counter-battery warfare radar near Zarozhnoye (Kharkov Region), 8 Ukrainian Grad MRLS platoons near Zvanovka, Kirovo, Soledar, Krasnoye, Platonovka (DPR), Dobropolye (Zaporozhye Region) and Shirokoye (Nikolayev Region), 9 D-20 howitzer platoons and 7 D-30 cannon platoons near Seversk, Kirovo, Novomikhailovka, Konstantinovka, Klescheyevka, Georgiyevka (DPR), Novopavlovka, Vesyoloye (Zaporozhye Region), as well as Dobroye (Nikolayev Region).

Fighter aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces has shot down one Su-25 airplane of Ukrainian Air Force near Kramatorsk (DPR).

In addition, Russian air defence means have shot down 1 Mi-8 helicopter of Ukrainian Air Force near Pervomaiskoye (Nikolayev region), one well as 5 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Topolskoye, Dementiyevka, Peschanoye (Kharkov Region), Yenakiyevo and Makeyevka (DPR).

8 projectiles launched by Uragan MLRS near Chernobayevka, Kazachyi Lageri (Kherson Region) and Kamenka (Kharkov Region) have been intercepted.


In total, since February 24, 2022:

 260 airplanes and 144 helicopters, 1,577 unmanned aerial vehicles, 356 air defence missile systems, 4,135 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 762 combat vehicles equipped with MRLS, 3,174 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 4,413 special military equipment have been destroyed during the Special Military Operation


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 108. Russia, Turkey and Ukraine signed a grain delivery deal

July 22, 2022

 

1. Three countries signed a grain delivery deal backed by the UNO

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar and Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov signed a UN-brokered grain deal in Istanbul on July 22.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu signed the agreement on behalf of Russia, and his Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar inked the deal on Turkey’s behalf. Turkey, Ukraine, and the UN signed their part of the agreement. On behalf of Kiev, it was signed by Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Alexander Kubrakov. On behalf of the UN, the grain export deal was signed by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said that two documents were aimed at solving the issue of food and grain exports to the global markets. "Today in Istanbul, two documents were signed aimed at solving the problems of supplying food and fertilizers to world markets. I want to emphasize that these documents are interconnected and represent a single package," Shoigu said at a ceremony held after the deal was signed.

The Russian Defense Minister added that the first document stipulates the United Nations to facilitate removal of restrictions on exports of Russian agricultural products.

"The second document defines the algorithm for the export of Ukrainian agricultural products from the Black Sea ports controlled by Ukraine," Shoigu said, adding that Kiev is responsible for security in Ukrainian territorial waters, including demining.

Commenting on the signed memorandum, a UN official explained that the Black Sea grain initiative is a renewable 120-day deal, but it should continue until the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends. The official added that it will take weeks to see ships transport grain in the Black Sea. "We were told earlier on in the negotiation by the Ukrainian side that they need about 10 days to prepare the ports to be ready to start moving again. So I think we're talking about, you know, a few weeks before we will see proper implementation of vessels going in and out," the official added.

Inspection teams under control of the Joint Coordination Center will make sure that vessels heading to Ukraine are not used to ship weapons to Ukraine, he said.

"There will be ships monitored across the Black Sea ... there will be an inspection of ships going in these ports ... The UN inspection team will be set up. The ships will be inspected making sure that there will be no weapons going into Ukraine," the UN official told during the briefing.

The export of Ukraine grain, foodstuff, fertilizer will be conducted across from the three ports, Odessa and two related ports," the UN official said.

2. Humanitarian situation

Russian troops continue to record numerous facts of criminal actions by Kiev regime against civilians, as well as the use of medical infrastructure for military purposes by Ukrainian armed formations:

a) in Kharkov, territorial defence units are stationed on the territory of Semyon Kuznetsov National University of Economics (Nauky Avenue) and an ammunition depot has been set up, while residents from nearby houses have not been deliberately evacuated;

b) in Dnepropetrovsk, AFU have equipped a stronghold at school No 23 (Yavornytskyi Avenue) and deployed artillery and armoured vehicles in the immediate vicinity of the school;

c) in Kramatorsk, Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), AFU have equipped firing positions and sniper points on the lower and upper floors of multi-storey residential buildings (Mashinostroiteley Boulevard), with MLRS placed in yards, while the militants keep local residents in their flats, effectively using them as human shields.

These and other similar facts of gross violations of international humanitarian law by the Kiev regime, despite repeated statements by the Russian Federation's Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response, have so far remained unnoticed by international organizations.

Furthermore, according to reliable information in Slavyansk, Donetsk People's Republic, Kiev regime has prepared another sophisticated provocation to discredit the Russian Armed Forces. In order to implement this, AFU servicemen dressed in Russian uniforms with St. George's ribbons defiantly looted private homes and physically assaulted civilians, while AFU information and psychological operations specialists filmed "acts of looting" allegedly carried out by the Russian Armed Forces. Russian MoD warned the international community in advance that Kiev authorities are planning to widely disseminate this latest fake story in the Ukrainian and Western media in the near future.

3. Situation on the battlefields

Official representative of DPR People’s Police made a statement on July 22:

The Ukrainian side continues to terrorize the civilian population of the DPR, inflicting massive artillery strikes on residential areas and civilian infrastructure, which in turn do not pose a danger to the enemy and are not military targets.

Over the past day, according to the DPR JCCC, the enemy fired six hundred and sixty shells from Grad multiple launch rocket systems, 155, 152 and 122-mm cannon artillery, as well as 120 and 82-mm mortars, and also used unguided aircraft missiles with a caliber 80 mm (without the use of aviation).

The fire was fired at the districts of sixteen settlements of the DPR. As a result of shelling, one civilian was killed and seven were injured.

Thirty-eight residential buildings and seven civilian infrastructure facilities were damaged.

The enemy continues to terrorize the civilian population of the Lugansk People’s Republic, shelling the civilian infrastructure of the settlements of the LPR, which do not have any military facilities. Over the past day, the armed formations of Ukraine used of American MLRS M142 HIMARS, firing three missiles. Information about the victims and damage is being specified.

On the other hand, Armed Forces of Ukraine are suffering considerable losses of armament delivered by Western countries.

From July 5 to 20, four launching ramps and one reloading vehicle for the U.S.-manufactured HIMARS MLRS delivered to Ukraine were eliminated by high-precision ground- and air-based armament.

Among them, 2 launching ramps were destroyed near Malotaranovka, 1 HIMARS and 1 reloading vehicle was destroyed near Krasnoarmeysk, as well as 4th launching ramp at the eastern suburb of Konstantinovka (DPR).

Attacks by high-precision ground-based armament have resulted in the elimination of a provisional base of Black Hundred nationalist group deployed in the school №23 in Kramatorsk (DPR). Up to 300 nationalists and over 40 units of special equipment have been eliminated.

Attacks launched by high-precision armament of Russian Aerospace Forces have resulted in the elimination of a missile and artillery armament depot of 59th Mechanised Infantry Brigade of the AFU deployed at an industrial area in the eastern part of Nikolayev. The enemy has lost up to 30 servicemen, 6 armoured and motor vehicles, over 2,000 projectiles for Grad MRLS, about 1,000 projectiles for Akatsiya self-propelled howitzers.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery continue launching attacks at the military facilities in Ukraine.

The list of neutralised targets includes: 6 command posts, including one of 92nd Mechanised Brigade near Rogan (Kharkov Region), 1 command and observation post of 72nd Mechanised Brigade of the AFU near Serebryanka (DPR), as well as 5 missile and artillery armament and munitions depots near Zaytsevo (DPR), Vishevoye and Uspenovka (Zaporozhye Region).

Within the counter-battery warfare, 4 Grad MLRS platoons, 24 D-20 howitzer and 13 D-30 cannon platoons have been neutralised.

Operational-tactical aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces has destroyed 1 launching ramp of Buk-M1 air defence system near Cherevkovka (DPR).

Russian air defence systems have shot down 12 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Malaya Kamyshevakha, Vernopolye, Oknino, Balakleya, Verbovka, Slatino, Dolgenkoye, Chervony Oskol, Peschanoye (Kharkov Region), Petrovskoye and Zlatoustovka (DPR).

In addition, 2 projectiles launched by Uragan MLRS have been intercepted near Topolskoye and Malaya Kamyshevakha (Kharkov Region).


During Special Military Operation in total have been destroyed: 260 airplanes and 144 helicopters, 1,589 unmanned aerial vehicles, 357 air defence missile systems, 4,141 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 762 combat vehicles equipped with MRLS, 3,176 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 4,453 special military equipment


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

 

 

Report # 109. Kiev violated a deal it has signed in Istanbul a day ago

July 23, 2022

1. Ukraine violates the Istanbul accord on agricultural goods’ deliveries

Sergey Bratchuk, a spokesman for the Odessa Military Administration, said that on July 23 Ukraine launched a cruise missile strike on the port of Odessa, a major trade hub in the country's southwest that was mentioned in the Istanbul arrangement as a sea port to export Ukrainian grain [see Report # 108 dated July 22]. At least four cruise missiles were used to target the facility, two of the projectiles were intercepted, while the two others hit the port’s infrastructure, Bratchuk clarified.

Such provocative attack came a day after a UN-brokered deal to unblock exports of grain and other agricultural goods from Ukrainian ports was reached [on July 22, 2022].

Under the Russia-UN memorandum, the United Nations undertakes to work toward lifting anti-Russian restrictions hampering exports of agricultural products and fertilizers. Another document envisages a mechanism of exporting grain from Ukraine-controlled Black Sea ports. An agreement between Russia, Turkey and the United Nations provides for the establishment of a quadrilateral Coordination Center to inspect ships sailing from Ukraine carrying grain to other countries, and to Ukraine to prevent weapons smuggling and rule out provocations. The center began its activity on July 23.

At the same time despite the Istanbul deal that facilitated to unhindered delivery of Ukrainian grain Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to destroy the grain crops in the fields of Donbass and in other liberated areas in Ukraine. For such purpose AFU use incendiary munitions.

Comment: striking port of Odessa mentioned for grain export a day after the signature of Istanbul agreements and destroying grain crops in the liberated regions in Donbass and other areas is particularly reprehensible and once again demonstrates Kiev’s total disregard for international law and its commitments, whose representative signed the accord during the presence of the UN Secretary General.

2. Situation in the Black Sea

70 foreign vessels from 16 countries remain blocked in six Ukrainian ports, including Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhniy – all located in the Black Sea. The Kiev authorities continue to avoid engaging with representatives of states and ship-owning companies to resolve the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have created the necessary conditions for the operation of two maritime ‘blue-navy’ humanitarian corridors that constitute safe lanes for navigation:

1) in the Black Sea (operational from 08:00 AM to 07:00 PM every day) to leave Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhniy sea ports towards south-west from Ukraine's territorial sea, 139 miles long and 3 miles wide;

2) in the Sea of Azov (operational 24 hours every day) to leave Mariupol port, 115 miles long and 2 miles wide, towards the Black Sea.

Detailed information on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridors is broadcast daily every 15 minutes by VHF radio on 14 and 16 international Channels in English and Russian.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 11. Kherson city has been taken

The troops of Lugansk People's Republic, with fire support from the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, advanced from the beginning of the operation to a depth of up to 75 kilometers and blocked Svatovo village.  Five more residential areas were taken under control.

The troops of Donetsk People's Republic conducted successful offensive operations, taking control of five populated areas. The depth of the group's advance over the past day was 58 kilometers.

Advance detachments of the People's Militia of the DPR reached the administrative border of the Donetsk region and joined the military units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, which took control of the regions of Ukraine along the coast of the Sea of Azov.

The Russian Armed Forces took Kherson, South Ukraine. This regional center is under full control. Civil infrastructure, life support facilities for the population and urban transport operate on a daily basis. The city does not experience shortages in food and essential goods. Negotiations are ongoing between the Russian command, the administration of the city and the region to address issues of maintaining the functioning of social infrastructure facilities, ensuring law and order and the safety of the population.

The exit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the Sea of Azov coast is completely blocked. The city of Mariupol has been encircled completely by Russian Armed Forces. Two humanitarian corridors have been opened to give a chance the civilians to escape. Ukrainian troops and nazi battalions are preventing people to leave the area, especially foreign students. In some cases Ukrainian troops and nazi battalions used civilians as a human shield. Donbass is still being shelled by them violently. Main targets are as before: houses, hospitals and key supply systems.  

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continued to strike at the military infrastructure of Ukraine.

On March 1 and 2, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out a strike with long-range air and sea-based high-precision weapons. Two airfields and three air defense radars were hit.  The strikes excluded the defeat of civilian infrastructure and residential areas.

In total, since the beginning of the operation, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have hit 1,502 targets of the military infrastructure of Ukraine.

Of these: 51 command and control centers and a communication posts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 38 S-300, Buk M-1 and Osa anti-aircraft missile systems, 47 aircraft on the ground and 11 aircraft in the air, 46 drones, 482 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 62 multiple rocket launch systems, 206 field artillery and mortars, 336 special military vehicles were destroyed (note: all these are accumulative figures counted from the beginning of the operation).

Russia’s ministry of defense has confirmed that the country’s military had struck a television tower in Kiev on March 1st, in what it called a bid to thwart “information attacks.” The broadcasting equipment of the TV tower was disabled.

The technological facilities of the Security Service of Ukraine and the 72nd Main Center for Psychological Operations were hit with high-precision weapons in Kiev.

2. The second round of talks between Russia and Ukraine was to take place March 2nd.  However, Ukrainian team informed that it would come to Belarus only March 3rd. The delay by Kiev is intentional: to buy time for military regrouping and to persuade Moscow to agree to a ceasefire and to withdraw Russian troops from Donbass and Ukraine – with the aim to gain military victory and retain ultra-nationalist status of Ukraine. Moscow insists on recognition of Crimea as a part of Russia, and DPR & LPR as independent states, to make Ukraine demilitarized, denazificated, as nuclear-free and non-aligned state, not hostile to Russia.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 110. Urgent Statement of the Russian JCHQHR in Ukraine

July 25, 2022

 

1. Russian Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine issued an Emergency Statement on July 25, 2022

According to the Russian Defence Ministry, the Kiev regime has completed preparations for a monstrous provocation using highly toxic substances in Slavyansk. In the next few days, Security Service of Ukraine plan to blow up tanks with more than 120 tonnes of the chemically hazardous substance, hexane, at the oil and fats plant.

Explosion of the hexane tanks would create a toxic cloud that would spread more than 10 kilometers away. All residential areas of Slavyansk and nearby settlements will be in the chemical attack zone.

The specific cynicism of such inhuman actions by the Ukrainian authorities is that they are prepared to sacrifice tens of thousands of their own citizens living in Slavyansk, as well as servicemen of the Ukrainian armed formations stationed in the city, to achieve their criminal goals.

Hexane is a powerful neurotoxin and carcinogen. Irritating to skin, affects lungs if inhaled, acts as a strong narcotic, causes drowsiness, dizziness, peripheral nervous system damage, numbness of legs, central nervous system depression and eye irritation. Prolonged inhalation of hexane causes chronic poisoning, leading to serious nervous system disorders, manifested by decreased sensitivity, rapid fatigue, decreased muscle tone and headaches. However, because hexane is capable of igniting spontaneously at ambient temperatures of plus 23-38ºC (followed by intense combustion and high heat release), an explosion could also occur due to the abnormally high ambient air temperature currently prevailing in Slavyansk district. The most effective emergency measures for protection against hexane vapour are to take cover indoors and to close windows and doors tightly. In case of poisoning, ensure fresh air supply to the victim and protect the respiratory system and skin.

We recommend that the residents of Slavyansk and neighbouring localities take the necessary protective measures immediately.

The purpose of this provocation is to accuse the Russian Armed Forces and Donetsk People's Republic formations of allegedly indiscriminate strikes against potentially dangerous objects, using a well-established scenario, followed by extensive coverage in the Ukrainian and Western media.

We once again emphasize that during the special military operation, the Russian Armed Forces and military formations of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics are not targeting civilian infrastructure.

We call on the United Nations, the International Committee of the Red Cross and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons to immediately influence the Ukrainian authorities and take effective measures to prevent this provocation.

2. Ukraine has not demined its sea ports so far

70 foreign vessels from 16 countries still remain blocked in six Ukrainian ports, including Kherson, Nikolaev, Ochakov, Chernomorsk, Odessa and Yuzhniy. The last three port are listed in the Istanbul agreement reached on July 22, 2022 as ports of exit to deliver Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products.

The threat of shelling and high mine danger posed by official Kiev prevent vessels from entering the high seas unhindered. Under the Istanbul deal, Ukrainian Armed Forces are responsible for conducting demining operations in the Black Sea, while Russian and Turkish Navies will escort all ships going out from these three ports controlled by Kiev along the Black Sea corridors and maintain security for all merchant vessels.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have created the necessary conditions for the operation of two maritime humanitarian corridors that constitute safe lanes for navigation:

1) in the Black Sea (from 08:00 AM to 07:00 PM every day) to leave Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhnyi ports towards south-west from Ukraine's territorial sea, 139 miles long and 3 miles wide;

2) in the Sea of Azov (uninterruptedly 24 hours each day) to leave Mariupol port, 115 miles long and 2 miles wide, towards the Black Sea.

Detailed information on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridors is broadcast daily every 15 minutes by VHF radio on 14 and 16 international Channels in English and Russian.

The Kiev authorities continue to avoid engaging with representatives of states and ship-owning companies to resolve the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area. The danger to navigation from Ukrainian mines drifting off their anchors along the coasts of Black Sea states remains.

3. Russia hit Ukrainian Naval Base in Odessa. Ukraine hit its own commercial seaport in Odessa located far away from it

A Ukrainian military vessel and a stockpile of Harpoon missiles sent by the USA were hit during Saturday’s attack, on July 23, Russian Defense Ministry has said

The Russian Ministry of Defense has confirmed striking targets in the major Ukrainian port of Odessa on Saturday, revealing that its missiles hit military infrastructure and arms stockpiles. “In the seaport of Odessa, on the territory of a shipyard, a docked Ukrainian warship and a warehouse of Harpoon anti-ship missiles, supplied by the U.S. to the Kiev regime, have been destroyed by sea-based high-precision long-range missiles,” the ministry said on July 23.

The attack also crippled a repair facility where vessels of the Ukrainian Navy have been fixed.

Russian Armed Forces never attacked merchant seaport in Odessa.

It is very strange that Kiev ordered to shell merchant seaport in Odessa frlom where Ukrainian grain will be shipped abroad.

Russia's obligations under the agreements signed in Istanbul do not prohibit it from continuing a Special Military Operation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, commenting on the strike on Ukrainian military facilities in the port of Odessa.

"If we talk about the episode that occurred in Odessa, there is nothing in the commitments that Russia has undertaken, including within the framework of the agreements signed on July 22 in Istanbul, that would prohibit us from continuing a Special Military Operation, destroying military infrastructure and other military targets," he said at a briefing on the results of his meetings with the Foreign Minister of Congo.

The Russian Foreign Minister added that the targets hit were located in the military part of the Odessa port, the grain terminal is located at a considerable distance from it.

"There are no obstacles for grain to be delivered to customers in accordance with the agreements signed in Istanbul, and we did not create them," the Russian Foreign Minister stressed.

4. Humanitarian situation

Russian Armed Forces continue to record the facts of the inhumane treatment of civilians and use of civilian facilities for military purposes by Ukrainian armed groups.

In the Donetsk People's Republic:

a) in Artyomovsk, at lower and upper floors of residential buildings (Nezavisimosto Street), AFU units have deployed their strongpoints and firing positions, as well as armament and munitions depots in the basement;

b) in Konstantinovka, in the school №6 (Shestogo Sentyabrya Street), Territorial Defence units have deployed their manpower, as well as observation posts and firing positions at the approaches to the educational institution, while residents of the nearby buildings have not been evacuated;

c) in Kramatorsk, neo-Nazis have deployed their firing positions and munitions depots in residential buildings (Parkovaya Street). Militants restrict local residents to leave their houses with pretext of their alleged safety, all their attempts to evacuate to safe areas are severely suppressed;

d) in New York, in the school №16 (Yesenina Street), militants of Right Sector nationalist battalion have deployed MLRS and use them for launching periodical attacks at the positions of Russian Armed Forces in order to provoke a counter-attack, while residents of the nearby buildings are retained in the basement of the institution being used as a live shield.

In Belgorod-Dnestrovsky, Odessa Region, in the urban sports school (Nezavisimosti Street), militants of Ukrainian armed groups have deployed their manpower, as well as armoured equipment, MLRS and artillery at the adjacent territory, the approaches to the building have been mined, but local population has intentionally been left uninformed about it.

These acts committed by Ukrainian authorities show their inhumane treatment to the lives of Ukrainian citizens and total disregard to all norms and principles of the international humanitarian law. All of it occurs with the tacit consent of the collective West that continues turning a blind eye to the numerous war crimes of the Kiev regime.

Russian MoD emphasized again the Russian Armed Forces and units of Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics do not launch attacks at civilian infrastructure facilities during the special military operation.

5. Humanitarian aid distribution

Russian humanitarian aid is the only opportunity to stay alive for a considerable part of Ukrainians who were betrayed by their own authorities.

Over 51 thousand tonnes of prime necessity items, groceries, medication and medical products have been prepared at the collection points.

Since March 2, 2022, 47,184.7 tonnes of humanitarian goods within 1,350 humanitarian campaigns have been delivered to the Republics of Donbass and Ukraine.

Over the past 24 hours, the civilian population has been provided with 651,5 tonnes of humanitarian goods within 6 humanitarian campaigns held in the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, Zaporozhye, Kharkov and Kherson Regions.

6. Ukrainian plot to hijack Russian warplanes exposed by Moscow

According to information shared with RT, Kiev’s spies offered Russian pilots money and EU citizenship as a reward

Russian intelligence has claimed that it foiled a sophisticated plot from Ukrainian spies to hijack several military jets. A security official official and a pilot, who is said to have been targeted by Kiev's agents, have shared details of the operation with RT.

Russia's Federal Security Service (the FSB) has sensationally added that a leading figure from the US-government funded investigative organization Bellingcat – which presents itself as a journalistic grouping – was also involved in the scheme, which it believes was "supervised by NATO intelligence agencies." The FSB specifically pointed the finger at British operatives.

It explained that Russian pilots were promised passports from EU members states, and substantial cash rewards in order to participate in the plot.

Early in the ongoing conflict, the Ukrainians compiled a list of Russian military hardware, using publicly available information. They promised monetary rewards for potential defectors who managed to bring the equipment with them. The more elaborate the weapons were, the better the rewards that were promised, with warplanes, helicopters and tanks fetching the top payment of up to $1 million.

When the public call for defectors fell flat, Ukraine’s security service targeted individual Russian servicemen – pilots in particular – directly. They apparently traced and identified the airmen through the digital trail they left online, an operative with the Russian Security Service (the FSB) told RT TV reporter Maria Finoshina. Kiev appeared to be specifically interested in Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers and Tu-22M3 strategic aircraft, according to the source. 

A Su-34 pilot targeted in the plot told RT that he was initially reluctant to speak with the Ukrainian spies, believing the promise of $1 million for stealing warplanes and defecting to Kiev to be a prank. After realizing his interlocutors were serious about the proposal, he tipped off Russian intelligence, which then monitored subsequent conversations.

“Initially, of course, I took it as a joke, but after a period of talking it became clear that I was dealing with representatives of the Ukrainian intelligence service and their Western partners,” the pilot said. “Also, I was supposed to get passports of European states and a comfortable life abroad was promised.”

Kiev's intelligence operatives apparently believed the Russian pilots who they contacted were ready to commit treason and hijack their own warplanes, putting them in touch with a Ukrainian pilot to discuss technical details.

“They believed so much in the possibility of organizing the hijacking that they revealed the layout of their defense systems, altitude maps, and lots of other useful information to us,” the Russian airman said, adding that the information obtained from the Ukrainians was used during the military operation.

To prove that the pilots were actually able to pull off the hijacking and had access to the specific warplanes, Ukrainian intelligence demanded video proof from them. The pilots were paid between $4,000 and $7,000 per video, which showed them getting into the planes while holding pieces of paper with specific numbers.

The middleman claimed he had received orders directly from Christo Grozev, the Bulgarian ‘lead Russia investigator’ with Bellingcat, a controversial Western state-funded organization that was labeled “undesirable” in Russia earlier in July. Moscow has repeatedly questioned the independence of the investigative group, citing its close ties with intelligence agencies. “Grozev… did not actually explain anything to me, he just told me the name of the courier who would deliver the money by train,” the suspect claimed.

The alleged involvement of Grozev is not the only suggestion of Western influence in hijacking the planes. During the negotiations with the pilots, Ukrainian intelligence was able to procure two legitimate EU passports – one Slovakian and one Romanian – for wives of the pilots, as a guarantee for the would-be ‘defectors’.

Leaving Russia with such documents would have immediately turned the pilots’ families into “hostages” of Ukrainian intelligence, the FSB operative told RT, as “methods of blackmail, threats and pressure on relatives” have long been standard practice for them.

“Obviously, the operation itself was carried out with the support of Western and, primarily, British intelligence services. We know about Grozev’s involvement and MI6 not only from these statements,” he added, claiming that Ukrainian intelligence had recently “ceased hiding” its ties with foreign spies.

The plot also described an even a darker element, as the would-be-defectors were supposed to somehow deal with their fellow crew members, it was revealed. While the Su-34 has two crew members, the Tu-22M3 has four.

Ukrainian intelligence reportedly suggested that Russian pilots should drug their comrades with Clophelin (Clonidine), a medication used to treat high blood pressure and other ailments. In high doses, however, it has a strong sedative effect, which makes the drug ‘popular’ among criminals wishing to knock out their victims to rob them. Very high doses can also be lethal.

Since the medication is not easy to come by in Russia, Ukrainian intelligence is said to have arranged a dead drop involving the substance. The FSB says it later recovered a stash of the product.

“As the pilot, I was asked to knock out my co-pilot, and what would happen to him after that is not clear – even whether he would be kept alive,” the Russian serviceman said.

According to the FSB’s information, the Ukrainian side insisted the betrayed crew members would be safe and exchanged as POWs later on. The Russian pilot, however, expressed strong doubts about that.

7. News from the battlefields

According to official data from the DPR JCCC, from the beginning of the active phase of the 3rd Ukrainian military aggression against Donbass started from February 17 to July 23, totally 262 civilians have been killed; 1,228 civilians, including 94 children, were injured with various degree of wounds in the territory within the borders before the beginning of the Special Military Operation or SMO. In the territory liberated during the SMO, 1,500 civilians were injured, including 84 children.

On the other hand, Russian Defence Ministry reported on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine

High-precision sea-based long-range weapons near Bogdanovtsy, Khmelnitskyi region, have destroyed transshipment base with US-supplied ammunition for HIMARS multiple-launch rocket systems and shells for US M777 large-calibre howitzer used by the AFU to kill civilians in Donbass and in other areas in Ukraine.

An attempt of Ukrainian sabotage group to advance and land from fast landing boats on the territory of Kherson Region has been discovered in Dneprovskyi estuary. Two Ukrainian landing boats with saboteurs on board were destroyed as a result of strike.

High-precision weapons attack of the Russian Aerospace Forces on a temporary deployment point of 95th Airborne Assault Brigade of AFU has eliminated over 100 nationalists and foreign mercenaries in Kostantinovka, Donetsk People's Republic.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery strikes continue against military facilities in Ukraine.

6 command and observation posts have been neutralised, including units of 60th Infantry Brigade near Orekhov in Zaporozhye Region and 113th Territorial Defence Brigade near Klugino-Bashkirovka and Chuguyev in Kharkov Region. 4 missile and artillery weapons and ammunition depotsnear Lyubimovka, Dnepropetrovsk Region, Stepnoye, Zaporozhye Region, and Artemovsk, Donetsk People's Republic, as well as 1 radar of S-300 missile system near Nekremennoye, Donetsk People's Republic, have been destroyed.

As part of counter-battery warfare, 4 platoons of Grad multiple-launch rocket systems near Uspenovka, Markovo, Minkovka and Semenovka and 2 artillery platoons of D-20 howitzers have been suppressed, 3 artillery platoons of Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems, as well as 8 Ukrainian platoons of D-30 guns at firing positions near Dzerzhinsk, Georgiyevka, Vodyanoye, Novomikhailovka, Kurakhovo and Kamyshevka in Donetsk People's Republic.

Russian air defence means have shot down 6 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Kamenka, Brazhkovka, Malaya Kamyshevakha in Kharkov Region and Khartsyzsk in Donetsk People's Republic.

In addition, 6 shells of Uragan multiple-launch rocket system have been intercepted near Stakhanov in Lugansk People's Republic and Popasnaya in Donetsk People's Republic.


In total, 260 Ukrainian airplanes and 144 helicopters, 1,611 unmanned aerial vehicles, 357 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,161 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 763 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,198 field artillery and mortars, as well as 4,459 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the Special Military Operation


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 111. More details about the Istanbul deal

July 27, 2022

1. A personal comment on the Istanbul deal

On July 22, in Istanbul, representatives of the UN, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine signed an agreement on lifting restrictions on the supply of Russian products for export and facilitating the export of Ukrainian grain and a number of other agricultural food products, such as sunflower oil.

A three-month period of validity of the agreements has been determined with the possibility of its subsequent extension. The signing of this document finally removes the baseless accusations made by the West of Moscow in the alleged blockade of the Black Sea seaports. The Russian side has never mined Ukrainian seaports to block the supply of Ukrainian agricultural products to other countries or for any other purposes.

President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stressed that Russia does not prevent the export of Ukrainian grain and if Ukraine itself mined its seaports, which it actually did, and not Russia, then any ships with food will be able to leave there unhindered after Kiev issues the order to demine Ukrainian seaports.

So, it is namely Kiev that itself has created numerous obstacles to grain exports, such as mining the Black Sea, setting fire to wheat stocks in the port of Mariupol, and also setting fire to fields sown with wheat in the Donbass not controlled by Kiev.

Commenting on the agreements reached, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu noted that the document assumes the involvement of the UNO in lifting restrictions on the export of agricultural products and fertilizers to world markets, and also regulates the export of Ukrainian grain through three seaports in the Black Sea controlled by Kiev – Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny. In addition, the agreement provides for the creation of a Quadrilateral Coordination Center under the auspices of the UNO, the removal of mines from Ukrainian territorial waters by Ukraine, and also regulates the procedure for coordinating, conducting, ensuring security and controlling the procedure for the export of grain and other agricultural products from Ukraine.

On the day of signing the Istanbul agreements, a number of high-ranking officials of European states noted that the deal would help to stabilize world food prices and was even intended to be the first step towards ending the war in Ukraine. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, in an interview with a BBC correspondent, said that this is probably the most important thing he has done during his leadership of this international organization.

The representative of the U.S. State Department, Ned Price, confirmed live on the CNN that the White House welcomes this agreement. ABC published the position of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who played a significant role in the negotiations, who expressed hope that the deal would be a turning point in the war and called on both sides of the conflict to resume peace talks.

Despite the positive reaction of the world community and the opportunity to sell Ukrainian grain, which, by the way, does not exceed one percent of overall global grain production, representatives of the Kiev regime continued to call for condemnation of the Russian Federation and the need to bring it to justice.

But literally the next day after the signing of the package of Istanbul documents, the AFU intensified its subversive activities aimed at disrupting the Istanbul agreements of July 22: on July 23, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a missile attack on the Odessa seaport, which it controls, blaming Russia for this.

But Russia did not launch a missile attack on the Odessa seaport. It is easy to verify this on the basis of objective control data possessed by the U.S. Space Force, as well as the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

On July 23, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation did launch a missile attack, but not on the Odessa seaport, but on the territory of the Odessa Ship Repair Plant. As a result, the production facilities of this enterprise used for the repair and modernization of the Naval Forces of Ukraine were put out of operation and the warehouse of Harpoon anti-ship missiles delivered from the United States located there was destroyed. That is, a blow was actually struck at a military facility of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But not a civilian merchant seaport located too far away from the Odessa Ship Repair Plant. The strike incapacitated the enterprise’s production capacities for the repair and upgrade of the Ukrainian Navy’s ships, the Russian MoD added.

Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the strike against the Odessa port’s military sites could not and would not affect the commencement of grain shipments in accordance with the Istanbul deals.

Vladimir Zelensky, despite the available video recordings of the results of the strike, was not slow to throw in a false message about the destruction of the alleged elevator and concluded that this attack "destroyed the very possibility" of dialogue with Moscow. His propaganda stunt was supported by U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrel, German and British Foreign Ministers Annalena Berbock and Liz Truss.

That is, all these persons displayed their complete incompetence and unprofessionalism. They didn't even bother to instruct their subordinates to check the information: who, where and when launched the missile strike. Although it is well known that these two facilities – Ship Repair Plant and Elevator – have different functional features and are separated from each other at a considerable distance. The Ukrainian president also deceived his Western curators, who simply have been obliged to listen his newly-invented lie.

So, thanks to Russia's and Turkey’s constructive position, the "Istanbul deal" on leveling “the threat of freezing Ukrainian grain export” was concluded.

But before its implementation, Ukraine itself must fully demine its three ports – Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny, intentionally mined by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Kiev should also not prevent to inspect its merchant ships sailing from these three seaports and to returning to them.

Istanbul expecting first ships to depart within days, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister confirmed. Turkish officials estimate grain exports from Ukraine, as agreed under last week’s Ankara- and UN-brokered deal between Moscow and Kiev, will start this week, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced on July 27.

“Based upon statements by our colleagues from Turkey where the Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) is located, they expect exports from Ukraine to start in the coming days,” Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko told reporters. He added, however, that, for its part, Moscow was hoping for the best, but could not rule out the deal crumbling. “We always hope for the best and expect that our partners will also implement two components of the grain deal – [that] concerning the export of grain from Ukraine, and [that] regarding the removal of restrictions on the export of Russian grain in general,” the official elaborated.

Highly likely, that Kiev can invent one more provocation aimed at blaming Russia for violating of the Istanbul deal or declare to refuse to inspect Ukrainian merchant ships in the Black Sea by international teams created during relevant Istanbul talks. One more option cannot be excluded, like Kiev’s delays in demining the sea areas close to three seaports in Ukraine mentioned in the accord reached on July 22.

2. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s statement on the Istanbul deal (Moscow, July 22, 2022)

A ceremony for the simultaneous signing of two documents on maritime shipping of Ukrainian grain and the export of Russian agricultural products – Initiatives for the safe transportation of grain and food from the ports of Ukraine and Memorandum of Understanding between the Russian Federation and the UN Secretariat on assisting the promotion of Russian food and fertilisers to international markets, respectively – was held in Istanbul on July 22.

Initially, both documents were part of the UN Secretary-General’s “package” initiative, which President Putin supported. However, during the course of the talks, Kiev made several attempts to sabotage the bundled approach to the agreement proposed by Antonio Guterres. Interestingly, the negotiators from the UN Secretariat promoted a position that did not quite align with the Secretary-General’s original initiative.

Be that as it may, due to the Russian delegation’s efforts, it was possible to maintain the comprehensive and depoliticised nature of the “package” agreement, thereby ensuring the maximum possible effort to meet the developing countries that are food importers halfway.

Russia will honour its commitments in this regard. The fact that the United States and its allies are using “food issues” in the interests of their geopolitical adventures is unacceptable and inhumane.

The Memorandum of Understanding on Russian exports of agricultural products was signed by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. The main goal is to ensure transparent and unhindered shipments of Russian food and fertilisers, including the raw materials for their production, to international markets. In particular, this issue is about removing the obstacles that the USA and the EU have created in finance, insurance and logistics and exempting these particular products from the restrictive measures imposed on Russia.

The memorandum will remain valid for three years.

Russia, Turkey and Ukraine are the parties to the Ukrainian Grain Transport Initiative, with the United Nations acting in a support role. The goal is to promote safe shipping for grain, food and fertiliser exports, including ammonia, from the ports of Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny. The document provides a procedure for the passage of ships, their inspection, monitoring the functioning of the humanitarian corridor, the modality of demining and preventing dangerous incidents by the Istanbul-based special Joint Coordination Centre with representatives from Russia, Ukraine and Turkey and with support from the UNO.

The initiative is to run for 120 days with an option to renew for a similar period upon agreement of the parties.

It is gratifying to know that Washington and Brussels have stopped obstructing the efforts to achieve today’s agreements. The signing of the Russia-UN memorandum reiterated the absolutely artificial nature of the West’s attempts to shift the blame for the problems in supplying grain to international markets on Russia.

We hope the necessary efforts will be made to effectively implement these agreements soon. The UN assistance that is provided in good faith and the constructive approach of the international community, including the Western countries, will be instrumental in this. Given the significant share of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural products in international markets, ensuring uninterrupted shipping meets the pressing objectives of maintaining food security, especially for the developing and least developed countries. All of that should contribute to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, including the eradication of hunger.

In closing, I would like to once again thank our Turkish partners, and personally President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for their contribution to today’s results.

3. Advance team of Russian experts arrived in Istanbul

Quadrilateral Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) in Istanbul has started its work in accordance with the provisions of the comprehensive package deal signed on July 22, 2022 in the same city between Russia, Turkey and Ukraine with the UNO assistance and support.

The Russian delegation is headed by Rear Admiral Eduard Lujk.

The main task of the Russian experts in the JCC is to promptly resolve all necessary issues to bring the respective initiative to the stage of practical implementation.

The activities of the Russian representatives in the JCC are under special control of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation.

4. The USA intends to send more HIMARS to Kiev: Moscow’s response

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexey Reznikov discussed military aid to Ukraine in a recent phone conversation, including additional supplies of HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, the Pentagon said on July 26.

"Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with Ukrainian Minister of Defence Oleksii Reznikov today to discuss the outcomes of the recent Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting and ongoing security assistance to Ukraine, to include the recent U.S. commitment of additional High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)," Acting Pentagon Press Secretary Todd Breasseale said in a statement.

Austin reassured Reznikov that the United States was moving as quickly as possible to deliver equipment to Ukraine, the statement says.

Chief of the Ukrainian presidential office Andrey Yermak said on July 24 that US congressmen pledged to provide up to 30 HIMARS systems and munitions.

Initial reaction of Moscow to this announcement was rather tough.

The use by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) against the Russian territory of American MLRS or other long-range NATO guns will lead to more than serious consequences. This was stated on Wednesday by the head of the Russian delegation at the talks in Vienna on military security and arms control Konstantin Gavrilov.

"Colleagues, do not let the overseas hosts blunt your vigilance: if the APU uses American MLRS or other NATO long-range guns against Russian territory, the consequences will be more than serious," he said at a meeting of the OSCE forum on security cooperation.

"Under these conditions, we will push the neo-Nazis away from our borders in proportion to the range of the missile systems used by Kiev. And then we'll see," the diplomat concluded.

Gavrilov also stated that pushing Europe to aggravate relations with Russia could expand the conflict zone. "Washington is pushing European satellites to cooperate closely with Kiev and aggravate relations with Moscow, forcing them to train Ukrainian soldiers and use their territory as a transit zone for arms supplies. These actions may lead to the expansion of the zone of armed conflict," he said.

5. Turkey: Russia wants to get the same drones used by Ukraine

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has revealed that both Russia and the United Arab Emirates are interested in cooperating with Baykar, the company producing the Bayraktar and Akinci strike drones.

The aircraft have been praised for their effectiveness on the battlefield, and have been used by Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.

Multiple media outlets in Turkey reported the story July 27, citing Erdogan’s remarks at a meeting of top AK party officials the previous. The revelation has caused a stir, since Baykar has exported about 50 drones to Ukraine just this year.

The UAE offered to build a Baykar factory, while Russian President Vladimir Putin said “let’s work together,” Erdogan told the party officials on July 26, according to CNN Turk. The reporting was echoed by other outlets, such as TGRT and Haber 7.

No more details were on offer, except that Putin’s alleged proposal came during last week’s meeting in Tehran, where he and Erdogan met with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to discuss the peace process in Syria and other matters.

6. Developments on the battlefields

Armed Forces of Ukraine continued to shell heavily Donetsk and some other cities in the DPR (total 11 settlements), and the city of Kherson that does not want to stay within a failed and ultra-Nazi state named Ukraine capable to create fake stories and unable to run the state affairs, economy and finance properly. On July 26 AFU fired 316 munitions against the DPR. Five 122-mm shells were fired, the DPR mission to the Joint Center for Control and Coordination said.

By now 130 children in Donbass have been killed by Ukrainian criminals.

AFU once again attacked Antonovsky bridge across the Dnieper near Kherson by using U.S. MLRS HIMARS supplied by President Biden to his counterpart Zelensky. The bridge was slightly damaged, but not destroyed. It has never been used by Russian troops. It has been used for civilian purposes. Kiev knows it for sure.

About 34,000 war crimes committed by Ukrainian security forces recorded in the DPR since 2014 by a Special Commission, said Natalya Nikonorova, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the DPR.

The LPR does not rule out that missiles with a range of 300 km were brought to Ukraine, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine are waiting for the U.S. order to use them as assistant to the head of the LPR Ministry of Internal Affairs put it.

Russian Defence Ministry reported on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine on July 26 and 27.

On July 26 high-precision air-based missiles struck temporary deployment point of Foreign Legion units near Kostantinovka, Donetsk People's Republic and destroyed over 40 foreign mercenaries, most of them Poles.

As a result of high-precision weaponry strikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces near Nikolaev, 1 artillery battalion of 59th AFU Motorized Infantry Brigade has been eliminated with more than 70 per cent of its personnel and weapons losses.

As a result of operational-tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces strike on battalion combat positions of 72nd Mechanized Brigade of AFU in Zaitsevo of Donetsk People's Republic, over 70 nationalists and 1 ammunition depot have been destroyed.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery strikes continue against military facilities in Ukraine.

During the day, 8 command posts have been destroyed, including units of 14th Mechanized Brigade near Sol', Donetsk People's Republic, 28th Mechanized and 79th Airborne Assault Brigades near Nikolaev, and 61st Infantry Brigade near Polygon in Nikolaev Region.

1 OSA-AKM anti-aircraft missile launcher near Bereznevatoye, Nikolaev Region, one US-made AN/TPQ-37 counter-battery radar near Yagodnoye, Donetsk People's Republic, and 8 ammunition depots near Kulbakino, Yavkino, Bakhmutskoye, Yakovlevka and Zaitsevo, Donetsk People's Republic.

Within counter-battery warfare 1 battery of Uragan multiple-launch rocket systems, 1 Giatsint-B howitzer artillery battery have been suppressed near Dzerzhinsk, Donetsk People's Republic, as well as 6 platoons of Grad multiple-launch rocket systems near Shirokoye, Bereznevatoye, Nikolaev Region, Ternovatoye, Yulievka, Zaporozhye Region, Paraskovievka, Krasnoye, Donetsk People's Republic.

In addition, 4 artillery platoons of D-20 howitzers, 7 platoons of Gvozdika self-propelled artillery units and 9 platoons of D-30 guns at firing positions in Seversk, Dzerzhinsk, Georhievka, Vodyanoye, Razdolnoye, Pereyezdnoye, Podgornoye, Severnoye, Donetsk People's Republic, Pershe Travnya, Dnipropetrovsk Region, Novopavlovka, Zatishye, Zaporozhye Region, Visunsk, Kalinovka, Nikolaev Region, Pyatigorskoye, Skripai and Petrovka, Kharkov Region.

Russian air defence systems have shot down 2 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Dmitrovka, Kharkov Region, and Vavilovo, Nikolaev Region.


By July 26 in total, 260 Ukrainian airplanes and 144 helicopters, 1,613 unmanned aerial vehicles, 358 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,162 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 763 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,201 field artillery and mortars, as well as 4,481 special military vehicles were destroyed during the Special Military Operation (SMO)


The Uglegorsk thermal power plant has been completely liberated from units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, spokesman for the LPR People’s Militia Ivan Filiponenko said on July 27. "The Uglegorsk thermal power plant, which remained under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces after the liberation of Svetlodarsk, from where they were shelling the city, has come fully under our control, enemy units have been destroyed there," the spokesman told the Rossiya-1 TV channel.

According to Filiponenko, the power plant itself was seriously damaged. "As they were withdrawing, the enemy spared no effort, no ammunition to destroy the infrastructure of the power plant," he added.

The spokesman for the People's Militia also clarified that the enemy has now been pushed back from the town of Svetlodarsk. "And people are already much safer than they were, let us say, three days ago," he summed up.

On July 27, high-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces have destroyed temporary deployment points of 28th Mechanized Brigade and 79th Airborne Assault Brigade of AFU in Nikolaev on the territory of former factory of reinforced concrete products and Nikolaevstroytrans motor transport company. The enemy suffered losses of up to 200 servicemen and more than 20 armoured vehicles and specialised vehicles.

One company of 10th Mountain Assault Brigade of AFU has been completely destroyed as a result of shelling near Artemovsk. In addition, 53rd AFU Mechanized Brigade near Novomikhailovka, Donetsk People's Republic has effectively lost its combat effectiveness as a result of the destruction of a command post by high-precision strike.

Russian Aerospace Forces on July 24 destroyed more than 100 rockets for US-made HIMARS multiple-launch rocket system near Lyubimovka, Dnepropetrovsk Region, according to updated reports. Up to 120 servicemen of the military guarding the site have been eliminated, along with foreign mercenaries and technicians.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery strikes continue against military facilities in Ukraine.

During the day, 4 command and control posts of battalions of 54th Mechanized and 17th Tank Brigades, 107th Territorial Defence Brigade near Novomikhailovka, Zaitsevo and Seversk, Donetsk People's Republic, as well as 65th Mechanized Brigade of AFU near Malye Shcherbaki, Zaporozhye Region have been destroyed.

142 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration have been hit including foreign mercenaries at temporary deployment point at Ukrainian Energy Machines plant in Kharkov, as well as militants of Black Hundred formation near Artemovsk, Donetsk People's Republic.

8 ammunition depots have also been destroyed near Mayorsk and Seversk, Donetsk People's Republic, Novoandreevka, Malye Shcherbaki and Stepovoye, Zaporozhye Region and Kul'bakino, Nikolaev Region.

Within counter-battery warfare, 1 battery of Uragan multiple-launch rocket systems and Giatsint-B howitzer artillery battery near Dzerzhinsk, 1 battery of Grad MLRS near Bylbasovka, 2 platoons of Msta-B howitzer and 5 platoons of D-30 guns at firing positions near Otradovka, Dzerzhinsk, Novgorodskoye, Vodyanoye, Konstantinovka, Kurakhovo and Georgievka in Donetsk People's Republic have been destroyed.

Russian air defence means have shot down 1 Mi-8 helicopter of Ukrainian air force near Barmashovo, Nikolaev Region.

Also, 9 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down near Petrovskoye, Novomayorskoye in Donetsk People's Republic, Barabashovka, Mykhailovka, Petropavlovka, Kamenka in Kharkov Region and Kuz'mino in Lugansk People's Republic.

In addition, 10 rockets of multiple-launch rocket systems Olha and HIMARS have been intercepted over Antonovka and Brilevka in Kherson Region, as well as Kherson city.


By July 27 in total, 260 Ukrainian airplanes and 145 helicopters, 1,622 unmanned aerial vehicles, 358 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,167 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 763 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,203 field artillery and mortars, as well as 4,494 special military vehicles were destroyed during the SMO


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 112. U.S. HIMARS killed 53 Ukrainian POWs kept in DPR

July 29, 2022

1.  Ukraine had a reason to kill its own POWs

Bloody provocation was purposefully perpetrated by Kiev regime early morning on July 29.

US-made HIMARS MLRS struck a detention center near Yelenovka, the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) controlled by DPR, where Ukrainian servicemen, including captured Azov fighters, were being held as POWs. The facility in Yelenovka also held members of Ukraine’s Azov Battalion, whose fighters surrendered to Russian and Donbass forces during the siege of the Azovstal steel mill in Mariupol. The battalion is notorious because it includes fighters with nationalist and neo-Nazi views.

Due to this attack 53 Ukrainian POWs were killed and 75 injured. In addition, eight employees of the detention center were injured as well.

It was not the first attempt made by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). They tried to eliminate them several times by shelling the detention center by long-range artillery and MLRS.

Some parts of the used HIMARS missiles have production numbers identifying that they have been manufactured in the USA.

This blatant provocation was committed in order to intimidate Ukrainian servicemen and prevent their surrender.

The second reason is that Ukrainian president wanted to eliminate key eye witnesses of his war crimes because he and his pals are afraid that Ukrainian POWs that were held at this detention center could tell a lot about the orders given by the Office of president Zelensky how to torture and to kill civilians having no desire to live in a failed, ultra-nationalist and banderist state called Ukraine.

Speaking to Russia’s TV Channel One, DPR head Denis Pushilin claimed that the Ukrainians “deliberately” targeted the detention center in order to kill Azov members who had been providing testimonies about possible war crimes by their commanders.

The circumstances of this provocation and criminal act are being investigated. The Investigative Committee of Russia has already opened a criminal case after the Ukrainian Armed Forces hit the detention center in Yelenovka.

Eduard Basurin, spokesman for the People’s Militia of the DPR, commented on the HIMARS strike by the AFU in Yelenovka. “This location was determined by the Ukrainian side itself when it negotiated the surrender, so they were held here all together. After the Ukrainian POWs began to talk about the crimes they had committed under the orders of the Ukrainian political authorities, the U.S. HIMARS system was struck here. The Ukrainian authorities even went as far as using this type of weaponry, of which they have very few, to silence those military personnel who started to tell the truth about what was happening here in Donbass,” he told reporters.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 114. The USA is directly involved in the Ukrainian aggression

August 2, 2022

1. On August 2, 2022 Russian MoD has issued the following statement:

Russian Defence Ministry has recorded and is taking into account for the future an official admission by General [Vadym] Skibitsky, Deputy Head of the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, that Washington directly coordinates each target for Kiev before strikes from US-made HIMARS MLRS.

Speaking to The Telegraph's British journalists, Skibitsky admitted that "before rocket launches, there are consultations between intelligence officials from both countries, which allow Washington to stop any potential attacks if they were unhappy with the intended target".


All this undeniably proves that Washington, contrary to White House and Pentagon claims, is directly involved in the conflict in Ukraine.


It is Biden administration that is directly responsible for all Kiev-approved rocket attacks on residential areas and civilian infrastructure in populated areas of Donbass and other regions, which have resulted in mass deaths of civilians.

No one else in Ukraine or in the world should have any doubts that the strikes by HIMARS rockets on Novaya Kakhovka on July 12, on Stakhanov on July 17, on Krasniy Luch on July 24, dozens of strikes on Donetsk and, of course, the July 29 strike on the detention facility in Elenovka, which killed 50 and injured 73 Ukrainian POWs, have been planned by Zelensky regime and approved by Washington.


Political, criminal and moral responsibility for the Elenovka massacre and other war crimes in Ukraine, along with Zelensky, is directly linked with Biden administration.


2. AFU still conduct criminal actions against civilians

Russian troops continue to record numerous facts of criminal actions by Kiev regime against civilians, as well as the use of medical infrastructure for military purposes by Ukrainian armed formations:

a) in Seversk, Donetsk People's Republic, AFU have deployed artillery and MLRS on the territory of Zolotaya Rybka kindergarten (Molodezhnaya Street), from which they systematically shell Russian Armed Forces positions, provoking them to return fire;

b) in Odessa, Ukrainian armed formations have deployed MANPADs on the roof of the Musical Comedy Theatre (Panteleymonovskaya Street) and heavy weapons and armoured vehicles on the adjacent territory of the Ecology University dormitory (Lvovska Street);

c) in Cherkasy, Ukrainian nationalists have equipped firing positions for heavy artillery and MLRS in private households (Pushkin Street), while locals have not been evacuated.

Furthermore, it has been reliably established that in Dnepropetrovsk Region, militants of Ukrainian armed formations have mined a railway bridge and a road bridge across the Volch'ya River between the settlements of Chernenkovo and Novoskelevatoe, which they plan to blow up and accuse units of the Russian Armed Forces and Donetsk People's Republic of allegedly indiscriminate strikes on transport infrastructure.

Such actions by criminal Ukrainian authorities demonstrate complete indifference to the fate of their own citizens and absolute disregard for all norms of morality and the principles of international humanitarian law.

Russian MoD once again emphasizes that during the Special Military Operation, the Russian Armed Forces and military formations of Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics are not striking at civilian infrastructure facilities, are treating civilians extremely humanely and are providing them with comprehensive assistance and support.

3. Kiev still uses prohibited APM

Armed Forces of Ukraine or AFU continue to wage a barbaric and cruel war against civilians in Donbass and in some other parts of Ukraine by using MLRS and other long-range large caliber howitzers (155 mm).

Besides using M142 MLRS HIMARS produced and delivered to Ukrainian inhuman ultra-Nazi regime by the USA, Kiev began wider employment of anti-personnel mines (APM) known as PFM-1 “Lipestok” in Russian and “Pelustka” in Ukrainian that are prohibited by the international law as very dangerous and inflicting excessive injuries to people [see Report # 113].


Russian Armed Forces do not have such lethal criminal weapon in their arsenal


On the contrary, AFU possess them and are widely used against civilians in Donbass despite the fact that Ukraine signed in 2005 and ratified in 2006 the relevant Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel mines and their employment (1997). AFU intentionally disperse them in densely populated areas and in the centers of the cities that do not have military facilities at all.

So far, four civilians in Donbass have been heavily injured by Ukrainian “Pelustka” PFM-1.

Russia has sent the UNO data on the use of banned PMF-1 by AFU. Dmitry Polyansky, Russia’s First Deputy Permanent Representative to the UNO, said in his Telegram channel that the UN Secretary General António Guterres and UN Security Council Chairman Zhang Jun had been sent information about the mines used by Ukrainian troops for civilian targets in Donbass using banned PMF-1 mines, with attached relevant photographic materials to it.

According to the report, the letter will be distributed as an official document of the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly.

4. Situation on the battlefields

As a result of Russian Aerospace Forces strike on combat positions of 54th Mechanized Brigade of AFU near Mar'inka in Donetsk People's Republic, more than 50 nationalists of 2nd Battalion of this unit have been destroyed.

High-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces struck on a temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian Foreign Legion near Nikolaev city. The attacks have resulted in the elimination of up to 250 nationalists and 20 units of military equipment. High-precision strikes of the Russian Aerospace Forces have eliminated up to 500 nationalists of 92nd Mechanised Brigade of AFU and large amount of military equipment in Merefa and Chuguyiv in Kharkov Region.

Shelling of combat positions of 16th Battalion of 58th AFU Motorized Infantry Brigade near Artemovsk have resulted in the elimination of over 130 nationalists. The remaining battalion servicemen, numbering up to 70, hurriedly left their positions and departed for Konotop, Sumy Region, where they were disarmed and declared deserters.

21st Battalion of 56th Motorized Infantry Brigade, which had suffered significant losses near Peski, came under artillery fire of AFU during its retreat to Vodyanoye and was almost completely eliminated.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery strikes continue against military facilities in Ukraine. Five command posts have been hit, including those of 36th Marine Brigade near Nikolaev, 92nd Mechanized Brigade near Tsyrkuny in Kharkov Region, as well as 142 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration. Seven ammunition depots have been destroyed near Artemovsk, Kostantinovka, Ochertino in Donetsk People's Republic, Trudovoye in Zaporozhye Region and Nikolaev.

As part of counter-battery warfare two artillery batteries of Giatsint howitzers near Dzerzhinsk and Novhorodskoye, Donetsk People's Republic have been hit.

Four platoons of Grad MLRS and 9 artillery platoons at firing positions near Seversk, Kirovo, Artemovsk, Avdeevka, Peski, Orlovka, Shakhterskoye, Velikaya Novoselka in Donetsk People's Republic, Dobropolie in Zaporozhye Region, Shirokoye, Bereznevatoye in Nikolaev Region, Russkaya Lozovaya and Nortsovka in Kharkov Region.

Russian air defence means have shot down 5 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Moskalevka, Petropavlovka, Kopanki, Volkhov Yar in Kharkov Region and Sergeevka in Kherson Region. Two shells of Uragan multiple rocket launchers have also been intercepted near Kherson.


In total, 261 Ukrainian airplanes and 145 helicopters, 1,664 unmanned aerial vehicles, 361 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,225 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 782 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,240 field artillery and mortars, as well as 4,655  special military vehicles were destroyed during the SMO.


Meanwhile, Russia collected more than 52,000 tons of basic necessities, food and medicines have been prepared at the collection points.

Since March 2, 2022, 49,946.7 tons of humanitarian aid has already been delivered to Ukraine during 1,390 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 5 actions in Kherson and Kharkov Regions, as well as in Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, during which 27.6 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

5. Under the Istanbul food deal the first merchant ship left Odessa

On August 1, 2022, the first ship Razoni (flag of Sierra Leone, cargo - maize) departed from Odessa port to Tripoli port (Lebanon). The Russian Federation is taking a set of necessary measures to ensure the safety of civilian navigation and to prevent provocations along the crossing route.

The sea corridor through which Razoni is travelling is in the north-western part of the Black Sea. The control of the humanitarian operation for the departure of the first ship was planned with the active participation of Russian officers who are participating in the Joint Coordination Centre located in Istanbul.

The Russian Federation is taking a set of necessary measures to ensure the safety of civilian navigation and to prevent provocations along the crossing route. There also remains a danger to navigation and damage to port infrastructure from drifting Ukrainian mines off anchor along the coast of the Black Sea states.

The Russian Armed Forces have once again confirmed that two maritime humanitarian corridors, which are safe lanes for ships are still operational, including:

1)  in the Black Sea - to leave Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhnyi ports in a south-westerly direction from Ukraine's territorial sea, 139 miles long and 3 miles wide;

2) in the Sea of Azov, to leave Mariupol port 115 miles long and 2 miles wide towards the Black Sea.

Detailed information in English and Russian on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridor is broadcast daily every 15 minutes on VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels in English and Russian.

6. Ukrainian “Azov” nationalist group has been recognized as a terrorist faction

The Russian Supreme Court has designated the Ukrainian “Azov” nationalist battalion as a terrorist organization and outlawed its activities in Russia, TASS reported.

"To satisfy the administrative motion of the prosecutor general and to recognize the Ukrainian paramilitary unit “Azov” as a terrorist organization, banning its activities on the territory of the Russian Federation," the judge read out the decision.

The court announced only the operative part of the judgement. The ruling has not yet come into effect, and it may be appealed against in the Court of Appeal.

The suit was examined in the absence of representatives from the opposite side. Most of the hearing took place behind closed doors, journalists were only allowed to watch the broadcast at the stage of the examination of witnesses. The witnesses - Russian human rights activists and journalists, told the court about the numerous episodes of crimes committed by “Azov” militants. In the courtroom, they showed interviews with residents of Mariupol and Volnovakha, whose relatives had been killed, kidnapped, or tortured by militants from the “Azov” battalion.

Members of the organization recognized by the court as a terrorist organization are criminally liable. The founders and leaders are punished by 15 to 20 years in prison with a fine of up to 1 million rubles (over $16,500), while rank-and-file participants - from 5 to 10 years in jail with a fine of up to 500,000 rubles. Those who had voluntarily stopped participation in the activities of the organization before the investigation began, are exempt from criminal liability.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 115. Humanitarian policy of Russia and Ukraine: striking difference

August 3, 2022

 

On August 3rd, 2022 Colonel General Alexander Fomin, Deputy Defence Minister, Russian MoD, addressed foreign military attachés accredited in Moscow. His statement was dealt with the humanitarian aspects of the Special Military Operation or SMO.

In particular, he briefed the foreign military diplomats on the efforts being made by the Russian Federation to observe the norms of international humanitarian law with regard to prisoners of war.

“Since the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine, the Russian Federation has taken comprehensive measures to comply with international humanitarian law.

The relevant instructions to Russian servicemen were given by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Alexander Fomin stated that the MoD work is based on the provisions of the 1949 Geneva Conventions, the Manual on International Humanitarian Law for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, approved by order of the Russian Minister of Defence. The manual is a supplement to the statutory instruments and includes the main provisions of international humanitarian law, as well as recommendations for its application in the preparation for and during combat operations.

Painstaking efforts are being made to treat the detained Ukrainians in accordance with international humanitarian law, especially the Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War.

Close contacts have been established with the relevant United Nations agencies and the International Committee of the Red Cross to provide humanitarian assistance to the population living in the territories liberated from the Ukrainian Nazis and also to work with prisoners of war.


On a regular weekly basis, meetings are held with representatives of international organizations, primarily the UNO and the ICRC, to discuss the most pressing humanitarian issues on the Ukrainian direction. More than 40 such meetings have been held since February 2022.


In accordance with Article 122 of the Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War, the Russian Ministry of Defence formed a Reference Bureau for Prisoners of War in February this year. The Bureau transmits information on Ukrainian prisoners of war held by the Russian side to the ICRC.

Pursuant to Article 126 of the Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War, ICRC visits to places of detention are organised.

All detainees are treated in strict compliance with international humanitarian law: they are provided with decent living conditions, food standards in line with those of the Russian Armed Forces, and all necessary medical care, including complex high-tech operations using modern equipment.

In addition, in accordance with Article 71 of the Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War, all detainees are allowed to contact their relatives in Ukraine. Detainees make international phone calls and write letters to their home countries.

More than 1,500 such letters have been forwarded to Ukraine thanks to the ICRC's assistance.

Together with the UN and the ICRC, operations were successfully conducted in April-May 2022 to evacuate civilians from Azovstal plant and to withdraw AFU troops and “Azov” regiment fighters from this facility.

More than 3,000 people left Azovstal, including more than 2,400 servicemen of the Ukrainian armed forces and fighters from nationalist formations.

The operations were purely humanitarian in nature. Staff of international organisations confirmed the strict observance of international humanitarian law in their conduct.

The ICRC also facilitated a dialogue with Kiev on the exchange of prisoners of war and bodies of fallen servicemen. To date, 27 such actions have been carried out.

Pursuant to Article 112 of the Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War, the Russian Ministry of Defence has formed a permanent medical commission to examine sick and wounded prisoners of war and to take necessary decisions on them.

The Commission carries out its work in accordance with recommendations and principles drawn from the Geneva Convention.

The sick and wounded are examined and repatriated in a timely manner.

To date, 18 people have been handed over to the Ukrainian side following the commission's decisions.


Unfortunately, the situation with Ukraine's compliance with international humanitarian law is quite different.


The videos of torture and abuse posted on the Internet by the perpetrators of the horrific acts of violence against the captured servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces and DPR and LPR are widely known. There have been numerous cases of beatings, deliberate maiming, extrajudicial killings and failure to provide medical care to Russian servicemen.

In addition, Ukrainian Nazis exert psychological pressure on relatives of detained servicemen and extort money from them.

Alexander Fomin shared some statistics summarized from a survey of Russian, DPR and LPR military personnel released from captivity.

81% of servicemen were beaten and physically abused.

55% of servicemen were forcibly involved in filming propaganda videos and videoconferences.

46% of servicewomen did not receive medical treatment.

79% of servicemen were not given the opportunity to contact their relatives.

19% of soldiers were provided with inadequate or poor quality food. For example, at the SSU detention facility in Kiev, food was provided once a day: a piece of bread, 50 grams of porridge and a glass of water. The soldiers were wearing masks covering their eyes at all times.

All these facts are regularly reported to the relevant humanitarian agencies with a request to influence official Kiev.

However, Russian MoD continues to record cases of violations of international humanitarian law, obligations under international conventions and rules of war by the Ukrainian military.

AFU uses civilians as human shields and places heavy weapons in densely populated areas at social facilities, medical institutions and cultural heritage sites.

The shelling of residential areas in DPR and LPR, including with Western-made weapons, continues unabated.

Anti-personnel mines and booby traps prohibited by the 1997 Ottawa Convention are used against civilians, and cluster munitions are also used.

And this is despite Kiev's claims of alleged compliance with its international obligations under the Convention.

With the patronage of the West, the Kiev authorities do not limit themselves by any moral or legal standards. On a daily basis, members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and nationalist battalions commit crimes that are not properly appreciated by the international community.

The shelling of markets, train stations, residential areas, humanitarian aid distribution points and other crowded places continues in Donetsk, Yasinovataya, Gorlovka, Makeevka, Svyatogorsk and many other settlements and towns in Donbass.

At the same time, a lot of falsified information is being posted on the Internet about alleged crimes committed by servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces.

Such connivance on the part of the international community, as well as the Ukrainian authorities' desire to hide their crimes, in our opinion, led to the tragedy in Elenovka, where Ukrainian armed forces shelled a place where Ukrainian prisoners of war were held.

On July 29, 2022, at 00:20AM Ukrainian Armed Forces deliberately struck the temporary detention centre in Elenovka in Donetsk People's Republic (Correctional Colony 120, located 12 km south of Donetsk city) with a US-made HIMARS MLRS.

At the time of the strike, the detention centre was holding prisoners of war, including surrendered “Azov” fighters.

There were 193 people in the block that was hit. Most of them were members of the “Azov” regiment. The shelling killed 50 and injured 73 POWs. Eight staff members of the detention centre were also injured.

The direction of the roof rupture and the focus of the fire directly indicate that the impact was from the northwest direction. The strike came from Maryinka - Kurakhovo - Sergeyevka - Pokrovsk - Udachnoye direction.

The photo shows the distinctive fragments of the rocket that struck the building with “Azov” fighters - they are fragments of the US rocket launcher HIMARS.

Alexander Fomin draw attention of the audience to the analysis of the chronology of events:

On May 20, 2022, surrendered members of “Azov” Nationalist Regiment were taken to the detention centre in Elenovka. The Ukrainian side insisted on this particular place of detention. On July 28, 2022, a video confession of “Azov” crimes by Dmitriy Kozatskyi was published.

As a result, on the night of July 28-29, 2022, an attack was carried out on detention centre in Elenovka.


The Ukrainian leadership gave the order to launch a missile strike as captured “Azov” regiment fighters started giving testimonies revealing their crimes, including against civilians.


The speaker acquainted the participants in the briefing with the statements of Ukrainian servicemen who were held in detention centre in Elenovka.

A large number of Ukrainian soldiers are now voluntarily laying down their arms, knowing the humane treatment of prisoners of war on the Russian side. The provocation in Elenovka is intended to intimidate AFU soldiers and is an attempt to counter their surrender.

It is an established practice that the Ukrainian authorities, without citing any evidence, try to shift the responsibility for the deaths of Ukrainian prisoners of war onto the Russian Federation.

Unfortunately, the chorus of unsubstantiated accusations against us is increasingly being joined by representatives of the Western leadership.


At the same time, the US indirectly admitted to the fact that the AFU had launched a strike on Elenovka.


Pentagon website posted a statement from a senior US Department of Defense official that quote, "if it did happen to be a Ukrainian strike, they didn't mean to do it..." end of quote. We regard this statement as a clumsy attempt to justify the Kiev regime's provocation.

The US claims that HIMARS are highly accurate and hit exactly the targets they were aimed at.

At the same time, Kiev stresses that the AFU actively uses space and aerial reconnaissance data received from the US Armed Forces and their allies in planning fire strikes, while US representatives are preparing firing missions. The totality of these facts only confirms the guilt of the Kiev regime for the murder of its citizens.

To conclude the briefing, Deputy Defence Minister mentioned once again the reasons why the Ukrainian Armed Forces struck at detention centre in Elenovka.


The Kiev authorities seek to eliminate witnesses and perpetrators of their crimes against their own people.

 


Zelensky advocates for a unified assessment from the Western community that coincides with the Ukrainian interpretation of these events, blaming the Russian side for the strike on Elenovka.

As for the objectives of the Special Military Operation, they will be met in full, Colonel General Alexander Fomin concluded.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 116. Jeffrey Sachs: COVID-19 was likely created by the USA

August 4,2022

On August 4th, 2022 Russian MoD publicly announced at a special briefing the results of the analysis of documents related to illegal military biological activities of the USA in Ukraine

The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation continues to analyse the military and biological activities of the USA and its allies in Ukraine and elsewhere in the world in the light of new information obtained in the liberated territories.

Work continues on the study of biological samples from Ukrainian soldiers who have voluntarily laid down their arms. As we noted earlier, high concentrations of antibiotics were found in their blood, as well as immunological markers indicative of exposure to the renal syndrome and West Nile pathogens, which were being studied by the Pentagon as part of the Ukrainian UP-4 and UP-8 projects.

Particular attention should be paid to the discovery of narcotic drugs, including opioids such as methadone, codepsin, codeterp, as well as ephedrine-type substances: t-phedrine and tri-phedrine, at positions abandoned by Ukrainian military personnel.

The synthetic drug methadone is used in the treatment of drug addiction as a substitute therapy.

As a reminder, in Nazi Germany during World War II, especially between 1943 and 1945, pervitin tablets, an amphetamine derivative, were given to soldiers in order to reduce the psycho-emotional burden, primarily to SS troops.

The drug was also used en masse by US troops in the Korean and Vietnam wars.

A side effect of such addictive drugs is primarily excessive aggression, which explains the extreme cruelty towards civilians displayed by some Ukrainian servicemen, as well as the shelling of towns in Donbass.

In view of the available information on the use of potent stimulants by AFU servicemen, we are studying incoming samples for the presence of this class of compounds. Their traces persist in human organs and tissues for a long time (e.g., in hair - up to six months).

The results will be handed over to the Investigative Committee and used as evidence in investigations into war crimes committed by the Kiev regime.

A few weeks ago, during the Special Military Operation, Rubezhnoye in Lugansk People's Republic was liberated. Documents have been found in the laboratory of the Pharmbiotest medical centre located at 9 Pochaivska Street, confirming that research had been carried out in Ukraine for several years on behalf of the so-called Big Pharma. Clinical trials of unregistered drugs with potentially serious side-effects have been carried out on local residents.

Russia examined the premises of the centre responsible for clinical trials of medicinal products on volunteers. Evidence was found in them that Western customers regularly visited Pharmbiotest and were allowed access to all stages of the research process. For the convenience of their work, the inscriptions on equipment, room names and working documentation have been duplicated in English.

To avoid reputational risks and legal costs in case of failed trials of new drugs, US and European companies conducted clinical trials on Ukrainian citizens. Volunteer pay was minimal and fatalities could easily be concealed. Neither have there been any serious inspections or oversight by the local authorities.

This is in line with the Western concept of delocalising the most internationally controversial research. In Ukraine, military personnel, low-income citizens and one of the most vulnerable categories of the population, patients in psychiatric hospitals, have been used for this purpose.

Russian MoD continues to analyse the documentary material uncovered in Rubezhnoye settlement laboratory.


Russian MoD has already informed that more than 16,000 biological samples, including blood and serum samples, were taken from Ukraine to the USA, Georgia and European countries


Against the background of the US administration's assurances that the genetic information obtained from Ukrainian citizens will be used "...exclusively for peaceful purposes...", I would like to quote a statement by Jason Crow of the US House Intelligence Committee at the North American Security Conference in July 2022.

Crow warned Americans about the dangers of giving their DNA to private companies for testing because: "...there is a possibility that test results will be sold to third parties... and the information obtained could be used to develop biological weapons targeting specific groups... or individuals."

Given the US administration's interest in the study of "narrowly targeted" biological agents, such statements force a fresh look at the causes of the new coronavirus pandemic and the role of US military biologists in the emergence and spread of the COVID-19 pathogen.

In May 2022, Jeffrey Sachs - a leading expert in the respected medical journal The Lancet and professor at Columbia University, the leading academic institution for global biosecurity, told a conference in Spain that "...the coronavirus was artificially created and is very likely to have been created using American advances in biotechnology...".

According to our experts, this is evidenced by the uncharacteristic variability of the genovariants that cause different peaks in the incidence of coronaviruses, significant differences in lethality and contagiousness, uneven geographical distribution, and the unpredictable nature of the epidemic process as a whole. It appears that despite efforts to contain and isolate the disease, the pandemic is being artificially fuelled by the introduction of new variants of the virus in a particular region.


Russian MoD is considering the possibility that the US Agency for International Development (USAID) was involved in the emergence of the new coronavirus


Since 2009, the agency has funded the Predict programme, which has investigated new species of coronaviruses by capturing bats that carry the viruses. One of the contractors for the project was Metabiota, a company known for its military-biological activities in Ukraine.

Characteristically, in 2019 – before the first COVID-19 cases appeared – the US Johns Hopkins Institute hosted an exercise called 'Event-201', which practised dealing with an epidemic of a previously unknown coronavirus, which, according to the legend of the exercise, was transmitted from bats to humans via an intermediate host, namely pigs. This is how the 'Spanish flu' virus, which has killed tens of millions of people, became pandemic.

The implementation of the COVID-19 scenario and USAID's emergency wind-down of the Predict programme in 2019 suggest the deliberate nature of the pandemic and US involvement in its emergence.


During the Special Military Operation, documents were seized indicating that USAID and its main contractor, Labyrinth Ukraine, have been participating in the US military bioweapons programme since 2019


Note the letter from the head of the AFU Sanitary and Epidemiological Department to the director of Labyrinth Ukraine, Karen Saylors. In it, the Ukrainian Armed Forces command declares its readiness to cooperate with USAID on administering vaccines to military personnel and on collecting, processing and transmitting information of interest to the US side.

The choice of the US Agency for International Development to coordinate the work may have been prompted by increasing Russian concern over the activities of Ukrainian bio-laboratories, an attempt to "take the US defence agency out of the loop" and avoid accusations of developing biological weapons. It has been established that Labyrinth Ukraine is a division of the US company Labyrinth Global Health, and its founders are former employees of Metabiota, a key Pentagon contractor in the military-biological field.

 Labyrinth Ukraine took part in UP-9 and UP-10 projects, which studied the spread of African swine fever in Ukraine and Eastern Europe.

Russian MoD pointed out that as part of the US Department of Defense's biological threat reduction programme, one of Labyrinth Global Health's research areas has been the study of coronaviruses and monkeypox virus.

On July 23, 2022 the World Health Organisation declared the outbreak of monkeypox an international health emergency, and to date the disease has been reported in 76 countries, with over 26,000 cases.

Thus, it is a clear trend: infectious disease agents that reach the Pentagon's zone of interest are subsequently pandemic, with US pharmaceutical companies and their patrons, the leaders of the US Democratic Party, as the beneficiaries.

Russia MoD has previously documented the use of biological weapons by the United States in Cuba. It was about the deliberate spread of Dengue, African swine fever and diseases of economically important crops on the island. I would like to give another example from the US military biology dossier.

In 1997, the Cuban government brought to the attention of the world community the fact that the United States had violated the requirements of the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention. The charge was based on the testimony of a Cuban pilot who recorded the spraying from a US aircraft of a quarantine biological agent, the palm thrips, which could damage one of Cuba's key agricultural industries.

Although it was possible to initiate an extraordinary meeting of BWC States Parties on this issue, the incident was not investigated due to the lack of a Convention verification mechanism, which the Russian Federation insists on establishing.

Such impunity has contributed to the continued use of bioweapons technology by Washington in Latin America, including the assassination of undesirable politicians.

On July 18, 2022, the President of the Republic of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, publicly declared the involvement of the United States in the assassination of former head of state Hugo Chávez.

According to information available to Venezuela, U.S. security services have been working since 2002 on possible ways to eliminate the Venezuelan leader, who has pursued an active anti-American policy. Numerous assassination attempts involving members of the US embassy in Caracas were uncovered and thwarted.

In violation of international law, the United States has been involved in the development of drugs that, when administered in the short term, cause chronic disease and develop various forms of cancer. According to the Venezuelan side, a similar drug was used to poison Chávez by Claudio Díaz, a member of the presidential entourage. She fled Venezuela with the assistance of US intelligence agencies and was subsequently removed to the US to avoid possible publicity about the details of her cooperation with US intelligence agencies.

A causal link between the Venezuelan leader's death and the development of biological weapons is confirmed by forensic evidence and the testimony of Cuban doctors who treated Chavez about the atypical course of the disease and its resistance to the use of medicines.


Thanks to the Special Military Operation, the threats posed by US bio-objects have come to the attention of many international and governmental organisations


Mass demonstrations against Pentagon-funded biolaboratories have taken place in a number of countries around the world. The Eurasian Economic Union's civil society organisations have passed a resolution to close such biosites.

In this context, Russian MoD is already seeing a change in the approach of the US military's work in the biological field in other countries. For example, states in which the US conducts dual-targeted research have been asked to sign a collective statement of cooperation with the US solely to "...enhance global health security and reduce the impact of infectious diseases on populations...". It is the word "global" and the rest of the text that draws attention: "led by the United States".

However, additional funding will be available through the Biohazard Reduction Programme for countries loyal to the US initiative.

The Russian Ministry of Defence will continue to analyse the documentary evidence of the US bioweapons programme in Ukraine and will keep you informed of the results.

  *   *   *

The State Duma does not expect the truth from the United States about the appearance of the coronavirus, but Duma believes that it is high time for WHO to take care of the secrets and scale of American military biolabs, said Irina Yarovaya, Vice Speaker of the State Duma (“United Russia” faction), co-chair of the Parliamentary Commission investigating the activities of the U.S. biological laboratories in Ukraine. "The Ministry of Defense presented serious facts. It would be wrong to ignore them," she underscored publicly on August 4th,2022.

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Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 117. By hitting its NPP Kiev pursues ‘nuclear terrorism’ policy

August 6, 2022

1. Moscow: Ukraine risking another Chernobyl by hitting its NPP

Russia has urged the UN and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to make Ukraine stop the “shelling” of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant (NPP) in Zaporozhye. Moscow accused Ukrainian troops of firing artillery shells at the Zaporozhskaya NPP in the country’s southern Zaporozhye Region on August 4.

The plant was seized by Russian forces in late February, when Moscow launched its Special Military Operation (SMO) in the neighboring country. The facility continues to operate with Ukrainian staff under Russian control.

Igor Vishnevetsky, a senior non-proliferation and arms control official at the Russian Foreign Ministry, warned that the shelling of the plant risks triggering an event similar to the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster caused by Ukrainian operators at the plant. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, “parts of the equipment” at the plant are out of power due to the shelling, and a fire broke out at the facility and was quickly put out. The ministry claimed that “by sheer luck,” the Ukrainian shells did not cause a bigger fire and “a possible nuclear disaster.”

The ministry said that Ukrainian troops also shelled the adjacent city of Energodar, causing power outages and disruptions of water supply.

“We would like to appeal to international organizations, especially to the UN and the IAEA, as well as to the countries that have influence on the Kiev regime, so they would take action in order to make the shelling of the nuclear power plant stop immediately”, Russian diplomat said.


The ministry called on the international community to condemn Ukraine for “the acts of nuclear terrorism.”


In order to prevent the IAEA officials to visit the Zaporozhskaya NPP with inspection President Zelensky ordered to shell this NPP several times.

2. Humanitarian situation

Russian MoD continues to record numerous facts of criminal actions by Kiev regime against civilians, as well as the use of social infrastructure for military purposes by Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU):

a) in Novaya Vodolaga, Kharkov Region, AFU stronghold have equipped in the building of Lyceum No. 3 (Grigoriya Donets Street), with roadblocks and firing points set up on the approaches to the educational institution, while no local residents were evacuated from nearby residential buildings;

b) in Slavyansk, Donetsk People's Republic, Ukrainian armed formations have equipped firing positions and sniper points in the training buildings and dormitory of a technical college (Tsentralnaya Street), and neo-Nazis are holding residents of nearby houses in the premises, using them as human shields;

c) in Varvarovka, Nikolaev Region, territorial defence units are stationed at the children's music school (Odessa highway), an ammunition warehouse has been set up and the approaches to the school have been mined, but the population has not been deliberately informed of this.

In addition, in Seversk (Yamskaya Street) and Soledar (Svobody Street), Donetsk People's Republic, Ukrainian nationalists have equipped firing positions with heavy artillery and MLRS in private households, from which they systematically shell units of the Russian Armed Forces in order to provoke retaliatory fire. The Kiev authorities plan to use these cynical provocations in the near future to accuse Russian servicemen of allegedly indiscriminate strikes against civilians, followed by extensive coverage in the Ukrainian and Western media.

Such actions by criminal Ukrainian authorities demonstrate complete indifference to the fate of their own citizens and absolute disregard for all norms of morality and the principles of international humanitarian law.

3. Reconstruction in liberated areas

The Military Construction Complex of the Russian MoD continues to build and reconstruct vital facilities aimed at restoring of the infrastructure social facilities in Donbass:

A) in Donetsk People's Republic:

in Mariupol: the first phase of residential district (12 residential buildings with 1,011 flats, scheduled for completion in September-November 2022) and an administrative and rescue centre for EMERCOM (scheduled for completion in December 2022); 60-bed multi-purpose medical centre (scheduled for completion in September 2022); pathologoanatomic building with medical-forensic unit (scheduled for completion in October 2022); Saur-Mogila memorial complex (scheduled for completion in September 2022); in Volnovakha - water pipeline over 20 km long (scheduled for completion in September 2022).

B) in Lugansk People's Republic:

in Lugansk: 200-bed multi-purpose medical centre (scheduled for completion in October 2022); in Rovenki - water pipeline over 40 km long (scheduled for completion in October 2022).

4. Distribution of humanitarian aid

For a great part of Ukrainians, effectively betrayed by their own criminal authorities, Russian humanitarian aid remains the only way to survive many civilians.

More than 53,000 tons of basic necessities, food and medicines have been prepared at the collection points.

Since March 2, 2022, 51,100 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 1,404 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 3 actions in Kherson and Kharkov regions, as well as in Donetsk People's Republic, during which 141.3 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

5. Implementation of the Istanbul food delivery deal by sea

The Panama-flagged ship Navistar, carrying around 33,000 tons of Ukrainian corn to Ireland, has reached Turkey’s Bosphorus Strait and dropped anchor in Istanbul, the Turkish Defense Ministry confirmed in a tweet on August 5.

The vessel is now expected to undergo an inspection by the members of the Joint Coordination Center before proceeding to its destination, the ministry said, adding that the check is due to take place within “hours.” The inspection group will include officials from Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and the UN, the Turkish media said.

The Navistar left the port of Odessa on August 4 under a deal negotiated by Ukraine and Russia and mediated by Turkey and the UNO last month. Two other ships – the Maltese-flagged Rojen and the Turkish-flagged Polarnet – left the Ukrainian port of Chernomorsk on the same day.

The Rojen is transporting about 13,000 tons of corn to Ireland, while the Polarnet will be bringing around 12,000 tons of the same commodity to the Turkish port of Karasu. Both ships have already entered Turkish territorial waters, according to some media reports, and are expected to arrive at Bosporus shortly.

The Russian Armed Forces have created conditions for the operation of two maritime humanitarian corridors, which are safe lanes for ships:

1) in the Black Sea - to leave Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhnyi ports in a south-westerly direction from Ukraine's territorial sea, 139 miles long and 3 miles wide;

2) in the Sea of Azov, to leave Mariupol port 115 miles long and 2 miles wide towards the Black Sea.

6. Kiev has no desire to continue talks with Moscow

Ukraine is not ready for serious negotiations on the settlement, the conditions put forward by it are ridiculous. This was announced on August 5, by Dmitry Polyansky, First Deputy Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UNO. Kiev interrupted the talks with Moscow since the end of March 2022.

“As for the peace talks, Ukraine does not show any signs of a responsible position. They have some demands that cannot be put on the table in serious negotiations. Therefore, we have not yet come to this. Ukraine only makes political statements that it is theoretically ready for negotiations with Russia. But they are ready to negotiate if Russia withdraws its troops, even from Donbass and Crimea, which is simply ridiculous. So, we don’t have a realistic partner yet, so the special military operation continues,” Polyansky clarified.

7. Kiev still violates international laws

Agnes Callamard, Amnesty International Secretary General, has defended Amnesty International’s report on violations of international law by the AFU.

Recall that human rights activists have stated, the deployment of Ukrainian troops in schools and hospitals. Callamard noted that there had been documented strikes by the Ukrainian military from residential buildings in 19 cities.

Following this, Amnesty International was criticised by many in the West, with Zelensky saying the organisation was trying to “shift the blame onto the victim”.

“The conclusions were based on evidence gathered through extensive investigations that were conducted in accordance with strict standards and procedures,” Callamard’s response was quoted by RIA Novosti.

8. Developments of the situation on the battlefields

The Ukrainian side continues to terrorize the civilian population of the DPR by launching massive artillery strikes on residential areas and civilian infrastructure facilities, which never posed any danger to the enemy and are not considered as military facilities.

Over the past 24 hours, according to the JCCC of the DPR, AFU fired 434 shells from Uragan and Grad MLRS of 155mm, 152mm and 122mm artillery, as well as 120mm mortars.

The shelling took place in the areas of eleven settlements in the DPR.

As a result of the shelling, six civilians were killed and thirty were wounded.

Thirty-eight residential houses and eleven civilian infrastructure objects were damaged.

Kiev still uses prohibited mimes against civilians. According to the JCCC, as of 08:35AM, two rockets from Ukrainian Uragan MLRS with Lepestok PFM-1 anti-personnel mines (APM), as well as 20 rockets from Grad MLRS rocket launchers were fired at the Kirovsky district of the DPR capital.

By August 6, totally 19 civilians have been injured by stepping on such highly dangerous mines. One of the them has died of heavy wounds.


International organization prefer not to criticize Kiev for using APM on a massive scale against civilians in Donbass, thus violating the Ottawa Convention that banned them. Ukraine signed and ratified this convention.


As a result of shelling by AFU, a civilian was killed in Kirovskyy district of Donetsk. A garage on Shmidta Lane was also reported to have caught fire. On Mudrova Street, a direct strike hit to a house.

From 08:00AM on 2 August to 08:00AM on 3 August – two people were killed and 25 more civilians were wounded as a result of shelling in the territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic.

On the other hand, the Russian Armed Forces continue strikes against military facilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces using information received from intelligence and special purpose units.

A platoon of flamethrowers has been tasked with destroying Ukrainian armed forces' strongholds on the path of Russian armoured vehicles in the Special Military Operation zone. The modern Schmel-M mobile infantry flamethrower has a significant range and high power. It is designed to destroy the enemy's manpower, which is located primarily in various kinds of buildings and protective structures, to disable automobiles and lightly armoured vehicles, to destroy fortified objects, ground or semi-buried structures erected from stone, brick or concrete.

Data released on August 4:

As a result of high-precision strikes of the Russian Aerospace Forces on positions of the 92nd Mechanized Brigade near Kharkov, up to 130 servicemen and 13 armoured vehicles have been destroyed.

Temporary deployment point of units of the 95th Airborne Assault Brigade near Konstantinovka, Donetsk People's Republic, has been hit. The attacks have resulted in the elimination of up to 400 nationalists and 20 units of military equipment.

As a result of active offensive by Russian troops and DPR and LPR people's militias near Soledar, Artemovsk and Avdeevka in Donetsk People's Republic, units of 54th Mechanized, 56th and 58th Mechanized Infantry brigades of AFU, having lost their combat efficiency due to heavy losses, abandoned their positions.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery strikes continue against military facilities in Ukraine.

Two command posts, including those of the 95th Airborne Assault Brigade near Konstantinovka in Donetsk People's Republic and nationalist formations near Ternovatoye in Zaporozhye Region, as well as 194 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration have been hit.

Two missile and artillery ammunition depots near Novoivanovka, Zaporozhye Region, and 1 fuel storage facility for Ukrainian military equipment near Zaporozhye-2 railway station have been destroyed.

Three platoons of Grad MLRS, 4 platoons of Gvozdika guns and 3 platoons of D-30 howitzers at firing positions near Lastochkino, Petrovskoye and Avdeevka of Donetsk People's Republic have been suppressed as part of the counter-battery warfare.

Russian air defence means have shot down 4 unmanned aerial vehicles near Andreevka, Druzhnoye in Donetsk People's Republic and Izyum and Dmitrovka in Kharkov Region.

In addition, 5 shells of multiple-launch rocket systems have been intercepted near Druzhnoye, Donetsk People's Republic, and Solnechnoye and Muzykovka, Kherson Region.


In total, 261 Ukrainian airplanes and 145 helicopters, 1,673 unmanned aerial vehicles, 361 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,244 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 786 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,251 field artillery and mortars, as well as 4,696 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the SMO.


Data released on August 5:

High-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces have struck temporary deployment point of two howitzer artillery divisions of 44th Artillery Brigade of AFU and missile and artillery weapons depots near Novoivanovka, Zaporozhye Region.

Up to 150 servicemen, 2 American M777 howitzers and up to 1,500 rounds of ammunition, 6 Msta-B howitzers, 8 artillery mounts of various modifications, around 350 shells for Grad MLRS and seven unmanned aerial vehicles have been destroyed.

9 locals have been injured in a conflict with unit commanders of 92nd Mechanised Brigade of AFU In Kharkov Region.

The compound's command attempted to evict civilians from their homes in order to house foreign mercenaries, as well as equip military and artillery positions.

Nationalists and foreign mercenaries opened fire to suppress the protests, leaving 4 local residents in Shestakovo and 5 in Verkhnyi Saltov with gunshot wounds of varying degrees of severity.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery strikes continue against military facilities in Ukraine.

4 command posts have been hit, including those of the 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade near Artemivsk, the 54th Mechanized Brigade near Seversk in Donetsk People's Republic, a temporary nationalist formation deployment point near Vyvodovo in Dnepropetrovsk Region, as well as 182 areas of AFU personnel and military equipment concentration.

2 missile and artillery weapons and ammunition depots have been destroyed near Artemovsk in Donetsk People's Republic.

During counter-battery warfare, 3 platoons of D-30 howitzers and 1 platoon of Grad MLRS near Chuguyev, Kharkov Region, have been suppressed at firing positions near Dzerzhinsk, Novgorodskoye and Nikolaevka in Donetsk People's Republic.

Russian air defence means have shot down 5 unmanned aerial vehicles near Yasinovataya, Krasnopolye in Donetsk People's Republic, Bukino, Suligovka and Kurilovka in Kharkov Region.

In addition, 3 shells of MLRS  have been intercepted near Mineralnoye in Donetsk People's Republic and Izyum in Kharkov Region, and 3 Tochka-U ballistic missiles have been shot down near Aleshkovskyi Peski in Kherson Region.


In total, 261 Ukrainian airplanes and 145 helicopters, 1,685 unmanned aerial vehicles, 361 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,254 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 789 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,267 field artillery and mortars, as well as 4,716 special military vehicles were destroyed during the SMO.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 118. Amnesty International: Kiev violates too many laws

August 7, 2022

1. What are they?

On August 4, the international human rights organization Amnesty International published a report on Ukraine's violation of the laws of warfare and international humanitarian law, in which it said that the Ukrainian military is deploying military equipment and weapons in schools, hospitals and residential areas, turning them into military strongholds. Secretary General of the organization Agnes Callamard emphasized: "We have documented that the Armed Forces of Ukraine put civilians in a risky position and violated the laws of war during actions in crowded places."

The report also noted the absence of any actions by Kiev to organize the evacuation of civilians from the areas where combat operations are underway. The conclusions set out in the document are based on data obtained during visits by human rights defenders to settlements in the south-east of Ukraine, namely Kharkiv Region and Odessa.

Amnesty International has a lot of weight in the international arena and has proven itself by publishing impartial and reliable reports, the content of which is taken into account even by the governments of European states. For drawing attention to human rights violations and activities aimed at no compliance with international standards, the organization was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, as well as the UN Prize in the field of human rights.

On July 29, Amnesty International leaders sent a letter to the Government of Ukraine listing numerous Ukrainian cities and villages where described violations were documented and provided GPS coordinates of 24 places, including schools and hospitals, where Ukrainian soldiers were stationed. Amnesty International waited for the answer by August 3rd, 2022. But there was no response from Kiev at all. On the contrary, on the day of the publication of the report, almost all Ukrainian officials hastened to make unfounded denials. The voiced statements, filled only with slogans about the inadmissibility of criticizing the "victim" and the need to concentrate efforts on the accusations of the "aggressor", completely lacked any facts.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Kuleba on his Facebook page saw in "such behavior" a kind of "false equivalence". Advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine Podolyak on Twitter branded Amnesty International disgrace for "participating in the Russian disinformation and propaganda campaign." The Minister of Defense of Ukraine Alexey Reznikov in an interview with a journalist of the American media organization "Politico" accused the drafters of the report, in his opinion, aimed at undermining his personal authority in the "loss of adequacy". President of Ukraine Zelensky also found no weighty arguments and regarded the report as an attempt to "shift responsibility from the aggressor to the victim."

The head of Amnesty International in Ukraine Oksana Pokalchuk, who was forced to leave her post on August 5, said on social networks that the data used was obtained not from the branch she heads, but from international researchers. A Facebook post written to her confirmed that the arguments of the Ukrainian office, "which was not involved in the preparation or writing of the publication text," were not based on an analysis of the reliability of the data used, but were reduced only to "the inadmissibility of such material."

In turn, American human rights activist Ajamu Baraka said that Amnesty International had exposed "the lies of President of Ukraine V. Zelensky, who suppressed the obvious facts of war crimes of Ukrainian troops." In addition, readers of the British edition of the Daily Mail were shocked by the data provided in the report. In the comments they left, they noted that the Ukrainian authorities purposefully lead their people to slaughter and accused V. Zelensky of destroying the country under the guise of allegedly helping citizens of Ukraine. Visitors to the website of the French newspaper Le Figaro also accused the head of Ukraine of a lack of desire to resolve the crisis and noted the validity of the statements of the authors of the report.

During a Special Military Operation, the Russian Defense Ministry has repeatedly accused the Armed Forces of Ukraine for using residential and social facilities to house troops and equipment.

For example, on August 4, the Russian MoD reported that the Ukrainian military used a school in Novaya Vodolaga, Kharkov Region, a technical school in Slavyansk, Donetsk People's Republic, a children's music school in Varvarovka, Nikolaev Region [see please Report # 117 dated August 6]. Official representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation also cited numerous proofs of the use of "human shield" tactics by Ukrainian Armed Forces.

In many Reports issued so far, such facts have been cataloged to a great extent.


Despite the abundance of facts and collected evidence, the Kiev regime,

 which is in the current illusion of impunity, obviously does not intend

 to recognize its war crimes already recorded at the international level many times.

 


2. Kiev intended to create the next Chernobyl disaster

In addition to Report # 117 released on August 6, 2022 there is a need to add it with some more information.

On August 5, one of the units of the 45th Artillery Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out three artillery strikes on the territory of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant and the city of Energodar situated not far away from it. The strikes were carried out from firing positions near the village of Marganets, located on the Ukrainian army-controlled shore of the Kakhovsky Water Reservoir.

Zaporozhye NPP is the largest nuclear power facility in Europe

As a result of the shelling, a flare-up of hydrogen occurred at the corresponding substation of the NPP, part of the equipment of Power Unit No. 3 was de-energized, the generated capacity of Power Unit No. 4 was reduced, electricity and water supply to the districts of the city of Energodar has been partially cut off. The fire at the station was promptly eliminated by emergency services. In the immediate vicinity of the places of fall of the Ukrainian shells there is an oil-fuel economy and an oxygen substation, in case of falling into which a powerful explosion and a large fire should be expected.

I. Vishnevetsky, Deputy Director of the Department for Nonproliferation and Arms Control of the Russian Foreign Ministry, commenting on the criminal incident of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, announced the intention of the Russian Federation to resume the activities of the IAEA to inspect the Zaporozhye NPP. However, the UN Secretariat, following the line of Ukrainian propagandists carried out in the Western media, at the very last moment cancelled a carefully worked-out trip.

Earlier, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the Director General of the IAEA, Mariano Grossi, informed the world community about the blocking by the Ukrainian side of the permission for the admission of representatives of the organization headed by him to the NPP. On the contrary, the Russian Federation, after establishing control over Energodar, has repeatedly reported its readiness to receive an international inspection.

It is no coincidence that this cynical provocation was carried out by the Kiev regime simultaneously with the holding in New York, under the auspices of the United Nations, of an international Review Conference on the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

Earlier, the territory of the Zaporozhye NPP had already become the target of the APU, which struck using unmanned aerial vehicles. The deployment of electronic warfare systems of the Russian Armed Forces at the facility made it impossible to use UAVs, which prompted the Ukrainian military to use less accurate, but more destructive artillery. Zelensky's team is once again trying to present the strikes allegedly carried out by the actions of the Russian army, which controls the nuclear power facility.

Such provocations at potentially dangerous facilities arranged by the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been carried out regularly by order from Kiev.

Such provocations have been implemented both at NPP and at other industrial enterprises.

E.g. on March 9, 2022 Ukrainian artillery damaged the power supply system of the Chernobyl NPP, which led to its complete de-energization. On April 5, Ukrainian units retreating from Rubezhny blew up a tank with hydrochloric acid on the territory of the “Zarya” industrial enterprise. On May 31, Ukrainian nationalist formations, leaving the territory of the “Azov” plant in Severodonetsk, ignoring the danger of hitting the local population, detonated a tank with nitric acid.

The Kiev regime, anticipating huge financial injections from the United States and Europe, despite the deadly danger both for its own population and for European states, continues to commit high-profile crimes and accuse the Russian side of them. Zelensky's team is carrying out acts of nuclear terrorism, which require immediate condemnation by international organizations and the adoption of productive measures to prevent further criminal actions that could lead to a catastrophe on a pan-European scale.

Only unprofessional “experts” in the West not familiar with the global history of attacking NPP and factories producing various dangerous chemical substances can claim that Russia allegedly attacked them.

But such “experts” do not know that there are no such facts recorded so far due to their non-professionalism and ignorance.

On the other hand, the current failed and ultra nationalist Kiev regime has made several attempts to destroy such facilities and create very dangerous situation in Ukraine and in Europe with the help of blackmail.


Unfortunately, masters of Zelensky always turn a blind eye to such suicidal acts engineered and implemented by Kiev rulers.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 119. For attacking ZNPP Zelensky should be imprisoned

August 9, 2022

1. For attacking ZNPP Zelensky should be sacked and imprisoned as inadequate and mentally ill person

For direct orders to destroy Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) by weapons inadequate Ukrainian president Zelensky should be sacked and sent to prison for indefinite term for endangering security in Europe in the form of nuclear terrorism.

Recently Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) made three attempts to hit and destroy the most important sections of the ZNPP, namely its six nuclear reactors that are still operating or cooling system that could lead to melting these reactors or the storage for containing spent nuclear fuel. The latest three attempts happened on July 20th, and continued on August 5th and 7th, 2022. This NPP is the largest in Europe. It generates 20% of all electricity produced in Ukraine and 50% of all electricity generated by all Ukrainian NPP.

Чего добиваются ВСУ в ЭнергодареOn August 7, Zelensky regime committed a new act of nuclear terrorism at the energy infrastructure of Zaporozhye NPP to create a humanitarian disaster in Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions.

At around 12:40PM on August 7th Ukrainian units of the 44th Artillery Brigade shelled the ZNPP from near Marganets controlled by AFU, on the opposite bank of Kakhovka Water Reservoir. Ukrainian shelling damaged Kakhovskaya high-voltage line, which supply electricity to Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions.

A power surge occurred at Zaporozhye NPP, causing smoke in the plant's open switchgear. The safety system was also activated, cutting off the power supply. Fire crews arrived and the smoke was extinguished.

The capacity of nuclear reactors ## 5 and 6 was reduced to 500 MW each that is  twice as less of the output of their total power by plant technicians to prevent disruption of the activity of this NPP.

Such actions performed by Kiev ultra-nationalist regime show that Zelensky and his team lost any reason and wisdom, and make many millions of Europeans as hostages of their nuclear terrorism and blackmail.

According to Russian estimates, the vast territory in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova and Turkey plus the entire Black Sea will be radioactively contaminated, if Zelensky widely supported by the USA and NATO will explode the ZNPP. 

The potential disaster at the ZNPP will be much more dangerous that those that happened in Chernobyl NPP built in Ukraine and Fukushima NPP located in Japan.

It is widely known that before the Special Military Operation that started since February 24, 2022 Zelensky urged to create ‘a dirty nuclear bomb’ to be used against Donbass, but failed. He is a real mad man and should spent many decades behind the bars rather than getting huge economic and military aid from the USA and NATO countries.

Only the USA has delivered long-range weapons and other military equipment to a failed and uncapable Ukrainian regime 18 times since Joseph Biden became the U.S. president. Such aid amounted to $ 9.8 billion from January 2021 till nowadays, and totally 11.8 from 2014 till August 8, 2022.


It is shame that the IAEA and the UNO leaders have done nothing to prevent such dangerous criminal acts committed by the Kiev regime. They even failed to send their respective experts to conduct on-site inspection on the spot – at the ZNPP. They also cover up such barbaric acts committed by Ukraine by empty political statements that are full of “expressions of concern” only, but not having specific decisions and professional actions.


The world community should not sit idle, and watch peacefully such gloomy developments like hitting Ukrainian NPP many times by Ukrainian Armed Forces.

2. Kiev again uses civilians as a human shield

Russian Armed Forces continue to record numerous facts of criminal actions by Kiev regime against civilians, as well as the use of civilian infrastructure for military purposes by Ukrainian armed formations:

a) in Krasnotorka, Donetsk People's Republic, Ukrainian nationalists have deployed artillery and MLRS in private households (Krasnogorsk, Krzhizhanovskogo Street), from which they systematically shell Russian Armed Forces positions provoking them to return fire, with the militants keeping local residents in their homes, effectively using them as human shields;

b) in Nikolaev, territorial defence units are deployed in the buildings of the Black Sea National University (Desantnikov Street) and School No. 16 (Gorky Street), ammunition depots are equipped, armoured vehicles have been placed in the immediate vicinity of the educational institutions and residents from nearby houses have not been deliberately evacuated;

c) in Artemovsk, Donetsk People's Republic, neo-Nazis have equipped artillery and mortar positions in courtyards of residential buildings (Blagoveshchenskaya Street). Under the pretext of alleged security, the militants have forbidden local residents to leave their homes, and all their attempts to evacuate to safe areas on their own are being severely curtailed;

d) in Mirnograd, Donetsk People's Republic, AFU units have equipped a stronghold and ammunition depot in the building of School No. I (Gagarin Street), set up roadblocks around the school and mined the approaches to the institution, but the local population was not deliberately warned about this.

In addition, according to reliable information, militants of Ukrainian armed formations in Vasynovka, Zaporozhye Region, have mined a road bridge over Zherebets River, which they plan to blow up and accuse Russian units of allegedly indiscriminate strikes on important transport infrastructure in a well-established scenario with coverage in the Ukrainian and Western media.

Such actions by criminal Ukrainian authorities demonstrate complete indifference to the fate of their own citizens and absolute disregard for all norms of morality and the principles of international humanitarian law.

Russian MoD once again emphasizes that during the special military operation, the Russian Armed Forces and military formations of Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics are not striking at civilian infrastructure facilities, are treating civilians extremely humanely and are providing civilians with comprehensive assistance and support.

3. Implementation of the Istanbul deal on delivery of food from Ukraine

As part of the implementation of the Understanding on the Safe Transportation of Grain from Ukrainian Ports Initiative, on August 7, 2022, dry cargo ship Reva Wind (Marshall Islands, cargo - maize) left Odessa port, dry cargo vessels Riva Wind (Marshall Islands, cargo - maize) left Odessa port, tanker Mustafa Nekati (Turkey, cargo - sunflower oil), dry cargo ships Star Helen (Marshall Islands, cargo - flour) and Glory (Marshall Islands, cargo - maize) from Chernomorsk port; on August 8, 2022. - dry cargo vessels Arizona (Liberia, cargo - corn) from Chernomorsk port and Sakura (Liberia, cargo - soybean) from Yuzhny seaport. The Russian Federation is strictly adhering to its commitments in order to implement the agreements reached to ensure the export of grain crops and mineral fertilisers from Ukrainian ports.

However, 61 foreign vessels from 14 countries remain blocked in six ports in Ukraine, namely in Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhny. There also remains a danger to navigation and damage to port infrastructure from drifting Ukrainian mines off anchor along the coast of the Black Sea states.

The Russian Armed Forces have created conditions for the operation of two maritime humanitarian corridors, which are safe lanes for ships:

1) in the Black Sea (daily from 08:00 to 19:00 (Moscow time) - to leave Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhnyi ports in a south-westerly direction from Ukraine's territorial sea, 139 miles long and 3 miles wide;

2) in the Sea of Azov, to leave Mariupol port 115 miles long and 2 miles wide towards the Black Sea.

Detailed information in English and Russian on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridor is broadcast daily every 15 minutes on VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels in English and Russian.

4. The fate of foreign mercenaries in Ukraine

Russian Defence Ministry continues to monitor activity of foreign mercenaries who have arrived in Ukraine to take part in combat operations illegally.

Over almost four weeks (from July 8 to August 5, 2022) the number of foreign mercenaries in Ukraine decreased from 2,741 to 2,192 as a result of the offensive actions of the Russian Armed Forces and the units of the people's militias of Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics.

Meanwhile, 175 more "soldiers of fortune" have arrived in Ukraine in recent weeks, including 81 fighters from Georgia.

At the same time, the number of mercenaries arriving in Ukraine does not outweigh the losses in their ranks. 335 foreign fighters have been reliably confirmed killed during this period, including 36 mercenaries from Canada, 33 from Romania and 21 from the USA have been eliminated.

Another 389 ‘soldiers of fortune’ left Ukrainian territory on their own wishing not to die for unknown goals and motivation.

Poland still leads in the rate of reduction of mercenaries in Ukraine. 99 have been eliminated and 146 fighters have fled for various reasons.

5. Situation on the battlefields

The Ukrainian side continues to terrorize the civilian population of the Donetsk People’s Republic, carrying out massive artillery strikes on residential areas and civilian infrastructure facilities.

Over the past 24 hours, according to the JCCC of the DPR, the enemy fired 420 shells from HIMARS, Uragan and Grad multiple rocket launchers, 155mm, 152mm and 122mm barrel artillery, as well as 120mm mortars.

The shelling took place in the districts of ten populated areas of the Republic. As a result of the shelling, four civilians were killed and seventeen wounded. Forty-five residential houses and three civilian infrastructure objects were damaged. Additional information on civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure is being clarified.

The following enemy weapons and military equipment were destroyed by joint actions of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Russian Federation Armed Forces: one D-30 122-mm howitzer, one Furya UAV and two APCs. Two enemy firing positioins were suppressed in the areas of Avdiivka and Novomikhailovka.

Kiev continues to disperse APM PFM-1 in densely populated areas in Donbass. So far 33 persons have been injured by such mines prohibited by the Ottawa Convention, signed and ratified by Ukraine.

On the other hand, Russian high-precision long-range air-based missiles have destroyed an active deeply buried command post of AFU Air Force near Voronivtsa, Vinnitsy Region.

High-precision, long-range sea-based weapons have hit a large ammunition depot near Uman, Cherkasskaya Region. More than 300 rockets for HIMARS MLRS have been destroyed, as well as large amount of ammunition for US M777 howitzers.

As a result of active offensive actions by Russian troops, the 2nd Mechanised Battalion of the 14th Mechanised Brigade lost its combat effectiveness. Having lost more than 340 men killed and wounded, the remaining personnel abandoned their positions.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery strikes continue against military facilities in Ukraine.

2 command posts near Seversk and Ochertino, Donetsk People's Republic, 3 ammunition depots near Krasnogorovka, Donetsk People's Republic, Zhovtnevoye, Nikolayev Region and Osokorovka, Kherson Region, as well as 123 areas of AFU personnel and military equipment concentration have been hit.

In the course of counter-battery warfare, 2 artillery batteries, including American M777-A2 howitzers, have been hit near Veseloye, Donetsk People's Republic.

In addition, 2 platoons of multiple-launch rocket systems near Lastochkino and 6 artillery platoons of self-propelled and towed howitzers near near Razdolovka, Orlovka and Georgiyevka in Donetsk People's Republic have been suppressed.

Russian air defence means have shot down one MiG-29 aircraft of Ukrainian Air Force near Toretskoye in Donetsk People's Republic.

17 rockets from HIMARS MLRS have been intercepted near Kherson city and Novaya Kakhovka, Kherson Region, and Melitopol, Zaporozhye Region.

3 Ukrainian drones have been shot down near Petrovskoye, the Rutchenkovo railway station in Donetsk People's Republic, as well as Mospanovo in Kharkov Region.


In total, 264 Ukrainian airplanes and 145 helicopters, 1,711 unmanned aerial vehicles, 363 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,278 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 794 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,284 field artillery and mortars, as well as 4,785 special military vehicles were destroyed during the SMO.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 12. 215.000 people have been blocked to leave two cities via humanitarian corridors

1. Trapped people

On March 5th, 2022 from 10:00 Moscow time, at the request of the Ukrainian side, in the area of Mariupol and Volnovakha, a “silence regime” was effected till 17:00 Moscow time the same day with a complete halt in hostilities to ensure the evacuation of the civilian population.
 
It has been reported by local Ukrainian authorities in these cities, totally 200.000 persons living in Mariupol (of nearly 400.000) and 15.000 people residents in Volnovakha wanted to leave them via humanitarian corridors.
 
By 20:00 evening time only 36 persons have managed to use these corridors because neo-nazi battalions prevented other people to escape from these two besieged cities and used the trapped civilians as a "human shield". Ukrainian authorities refused to inform the local population about such corridors and their timeframe.
 
The Ukrainian nationalist battalions took advantage of the "silence regime" to regroup and consolidate their positions.
 
Due to the unwillingness of the Ukrainian side to influence the nationalists or to extend the “silence regime”, offensive operations resumed from 18:00 Moscow time March 5th.
 

2. More strikes

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continued to strike at the military infrastructure of Ukraine.
 
On March 5th they destroyed: 5 radar stations, 2 Buk M-1 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4 Su-27 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force (UAF) were shot down in an air battle in Zhytomir region and 1 Su-25 was shot down by air defence systems in the Nezhin region. Also, the air defence forces destroyed the Mi-8 helicopter of the UAF and Turkish Bayraktar TB-2 unmanned aerial vehicle.
 
In total, since the beginning of the operation February 24th, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have hit 2,119 military targets. Among them: 74 command posts and communication centers, 108 S-300, Buk M-1 and Osa anti-aircraft missile systems, 68 radar stations. Also, 69 aircraft on the ground and 21 aircraft in the air, 748 tanks and other armored vehicles, 76 MLRSs, 274 field artillery pieces and mortars, 532 special military vehicles, as well as 59 unmanned drones have been destroyed.
 
Major UAF base near Kherson with a lot of tanks/APCs and ammunition has been captured without any resistance.
 

3. “Radioactive terrorism” by Kiev

With the aim to persuade NATO to proclaim a NFZ over Ukraine President Zelensky orchestrated a world-wide provocation at Zaporozhie Nuclear Power Plant or ZNPP protected by Russian Armed Forces. Kiev disseminated a fake information that RF tanks ambushed ZNPP. But in reality neo-nazi military group shelled its training center situated at ZNPP area. The fire has been quickly extinguished. None of six active reactors were damaged. RF troops and Ukrainian operators are maintaining the security arrangements in full cooperation. The IAEA director confirmed that the radiation level at ZNPP is normal.
 
The reasons that such false story was actively launched at the UN SC meeting and at the IAEA is that by blackmailing Europe with invented “radioactive contamination” president Zelensky has used the fake to put pressure upon NATO to set up a NFZ over Ukraine with the aim to start direct war between the Russia & NATO and to give a chance to carry weapons from Poland without airborne attacks.
 
Backing such provocative actions made by Kiev the USA and NATO once again confirmed that they are still unprofessionally protecting the failed Ukrainian regime under any pretext and without any normal verification of the events.
 
Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 120. The New START is without inspections. Who is responsible for such move?

August 10, 2022

On August 8, 2022 Russia officially informed the USA about the withdrawal of its facilities from inspection activities under the New START for American inspectors on Russian territory.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation explained that due to the aviation restrictions imposed by Washington and its allies and the tightening of the visa regime in transit countries, Russian inspectors, unlike their American counterparts, are unable to arrive in the USA. The reason for this decision was a notification received from the American side of the intention to conduct an inspection on Russian territory in the coming days, which, under the circumstances, Sergei Ryabkov, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, described as "an outright provocation."

The Russian Foreign Ministry stressed that Moscow unconditionally intends to comply with the provisions of the New START and is ready to discuss the resumption of inspections, but "from the most realistic positions." The Interfax news agency quotes Vladimir Dzhabarov, First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, who said that Russia's decision to temporarily withdraw its facilities from inspection activities is the result of a powerful anti-Russian policy carried out over the past 10-15 years and not connected with the conduct of a Special Military Operation in Ukraine.

The U.S. Embassy in Moscow refused to comment on the situation in detail, but assured that Washington allegedly remains committed to New START.

A number of international arms control experts agree that the treaty can continue to exist without inspections, the suspension of which is still evidence of a further deterioration in relations between Moscow and Washington. Ankit Panda, an expert on nuclear policy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, traditionally abstracted away from the reasons and called Russia's response "a cynical attempt to put pressure on the United States" in connection with the sanctions that the West imposed on Russia "for its invasion to Ukraine". In making such statement, Ankit Panda displayed ignorance and proved that he is does not aware the situation. Before making such empty accusations he should ask the U.S. State Department about the reality in this issue.

In the media resources of the international TV company Aljazeera, Moscow's actions are viewed as counteracting the U.S. desire to "create unilateral advantages" and deprive Russia of "the right to conduct inspections on American soil."

Currently, the New START is, in fact, the last agreement between former Cold War rivals. The document, which expires in February 2026, limits the stockpile of nuclear warheads, intercontinental ballistic missiles, strategic heavy bombers and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The BBC notes that Moscow imposed a ban on inspections a week after U.S. President Joseph Biden announced his readiness to work on a new agreement. But it is important to note that Russian response was de facto a response to the U.S. initially imposed blockade on Russian New START inspectors to visit the USA.

The Guardian rightly points out that New START is "still in place, and despite the inspection situation, Russia continues to report nuclear stockpile moves or status changes." Former NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller and ex-head of the U.S. delegation at the talks on the New START with Moscow told the publication that in recent months the number of such notifications received by the U.S. State Department has increased, which undoubtedly indicates Moscow's commitment to comply with arms control agreements.

Farhan Haq, Deputy Spokesman of the UN Secretary General, called on Russia and the United States to solve the problems of access to inspection of the implementation of the treaty. He noted that the New START is "an important element of international peace and security and the only remaining bilateral agreement on nuclear arms control." The Wall Street Journal quoted Daryl Kimbal, Executive Director of the U.S. Arms Control Association, who also recommended that both Moscow and Washington, regardless of differences, "… resume inspections, and begin negotiations on a new agreement [on Strategic Offensive Arms]," which is designed to reduce the degree of nuclear danger in the world. Former Senior Director for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation at the National Security Council under former President Barack Obama, expressed the hope that what is happening is “a kind of political pothole, rather than a new major obstacle to stability".

It should be more accurate to address concerns in the West on interruption of the New START inspections not to Washington and Moscow together, but to Washington first, who blocked entry of Russian inspectors on the continental USA under the New START provisions.


The restart of inspection activities should be carried out on conditions that take into account existing realities and do not create unilateral advantages for any of the parties to the New START


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 124. President Putin and Defense Minister Shoigu addressed 10th Moscow Conference on International Security

August 16, 2022

1. Vladimir Putin, President of Russia:

Ladies and gentlemen,

Esteemed foreign guests,

Let me welcome you to the anniversary 10th Moscow Conference on International Security. Over the past decade, your representative forum has become a significant venue for discussing the most pressing military-political problems.

Today, such an open discussion is particularly pertinent. The situation in the world is changing dynamically and the outlines of a multipolar world order are taking shape. An increasing number of countries and peoples are choosing a path of free and sovereign development based on their own distinct identity, traditions and values.

These objective processes are being opposed by the Western globalist elites, who provoke chaos, fanning long-standing and new conflicts and pursuing the so-called containment policy, which in fact amounts to the subversion of any alternative, sovereign development options. Thus, they are doing all they can to keep hold onto the hegemony and power that are slipping from their hands; they are attempting to retain countries and peoples in the grip of what is essentially a neocolonial order. Their hegemony means stagnation for the rest of the world and for the entire civilisation; it means obscurantism, cancellation of culture, and neoliberal totalitarianism.

They are using all expedients. The United States and its vassals grossly interfere in the internal affairs of sovereign states by staging provocations, organising coups, or inciting civil wars. By threats, blackmail, and pressure, they are trying to force independent states to submit to their will and follow rules that are alien to them. This is being done with just one aim in view, which is to preserve their domination, the centuries-old model that enables them to sponge on everything in the world. But a model of this sort can only be retained by force.

This is why the collective West – the so-called collective West – is deliberately undermining the European security system and knocking together ever new military alliances. NATO is crawling east and building up its military infrastructure. Among other things, it is deploying missile defence systems and enhancing the strike capabilities of its offensive forces. This is hypocritically attributed to the need to strengthen security in Europe, but in fact quite the opposite is taking place. Moreover, the proposals on mutual security measures, which Russia put forward last December, were once again disregarded.

They need conflicts to retain their hegemony. It is for this reason that they have destined the Ukrainian people to being used as cannon fodder. They have implemented the anti-Russia project and connived at the dissemination of the neo-Nazi ideology. They looked the other way when residents of Donbass were killed in their thousands and continued to pour weapons, including heavy weapons, for use by the Kiev regime, something that they persist in doing now.

Under these circumstances, we have taken the decision to conduct a special military operation in Ukraine, a decision which is in full conformity with the Charter of the United Nations. It has been clearly spelled out that the aims of this operation are to ensure the security of Russia and its citizens and protect the residents of Donbass from genocide.

The situation in Ukraine shows that the United States is attempting to draw out this conflict. It acts in the same way elsewhere, fomenting the conflict potential in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. As is common knowledge, the US has recently made another deliberate attempt to fuel the flames and stir up trouble in the Asia-Pacific. The US escapade towards Taiwan is not just a voyage by an irresponsible politician, but part of the purpose-oriented and deliberate US strategy designed to destabilise the situation and sow chaos in the region and the world. It is a brazen demonstration of disrespect for other countries and their own international commitments. We regard this as a thoroughly planned provocation.

It is clear that by taking these actions the Western globalist elites are attempting, among other things, to divert the attention of their own citizens from pressing socioeconomic problems, such as plummeting living standards, unemployment, poverty, and deindustrialisation. They want to shift the blame for their own failures to other countries, namely Russia and China, which are defending their point of view and designing a sovereign development policy without submitting to the diktat of the supranational elites.

We also see that the collective West is striving to expand its bloc-based system to the Asia-Pacific region, like it did with NATO in Europe. To this end, they are creating aggressive military-political unions such as AUKUS and others.

It is obvious that it is only possible to reduce tensions in the world, overcome military-political threats and risks, improve trust between countries and ensure their sustainable development through a radical strengthening of the contemporary system of a multipolar world.

I reiterate that the era of the unipolar world is becoming a thing of the past. No matter how strongly the beneficiaries of the current globalist model cling to the familiar state of affairs, it is doomed. The historic geopolitical changes are going in a totally different direction.

And, of course, your conference is another important proof of the objective processes forming a multipolar world, bringing together representatives from many countries who want to discuss security issues on an equal footing, and conduct a dialogue that takes into account the interests of all parties, without exception.

I want to emphasise that the multipolar world, based on international law and more just relations, opens up new opportunities for counteracting common threats, such as regional conflicts and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism and cybercrime. All these challenges are global, and therefore it would be impossible to overcome them without combining the efforts and potentials of all states.

As before, Russia will actively and assertively participate in such coordinated joint efforts; together with its allies, partners and fellow thinkers, it will improve the existing mechanisms of international security and create new ones, as well as consistently strengthen the national armed forces and other security structures by providing them with advanced weapons and military equipment. Russia will secure its national interests, as well as the protection of its allies, and take other steps towards building of a more democratic world where the rights of all peoples and cultural and civilisational diversity are guaranteed.

We need to restore respect for international law, for its fundamental norms and principles. And, of course, it is important to promote such universal and commonly acknowledged agencies as the United Nations and other international dialogue platforms. The UN Security Council and the General Assembly, as it was intended initially, are supposed to serve as effective tools to reduce international tensions and prevent conflicts, as well as facilitate the provision of reliable security and wellbeing of countries and peoples.

In conclusion, I want to thank the conference organisers for their major preparatory work and I wish all participants substantial discussions.

I am sure that the forum will continue to make a significant contribution to the strengthening of peace and stability on our planet and facilitate the development of constructive dialogue and partnership.

Thank you for your attention.

2. Sergei Shoigu, the Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation, General of the Army:

Ladies and gentlemen!

It is a pleasure to welcome you to the 10th Moscow Conference on International Security.

This conference comes at a time of radical change in global and regional security. The unconditional dominance of the US and its allies is a thing of the past. On February 24, 2022, the start of the special military operation in Ukraine marked the end of the unipolar world.

Multipolarity has become a reality. The poles of this world are clearly defined. The main difference between them is that some respect the interests of sovereign states and take into account the cultural and historical particularities of countries and peoples, while others disregard them. There have been numerous discussions on this topic during previous sessions of the Moscow conference.

In Europe, the security situation is worse than at the peak of the Cold War. The alliance's military activities have become as aggressive and anti-Russian as possible. Significant US forces have been redeployed to the continent, and the number of coalition troops in Eastern and Central Europe has increased manifold.

It is important to note that the deployment of additional NATO Joint Force formations on the bloc's "eastern flank" had already started before the start of the special military operation in Ukraine.

NATO has dropped its masks. The aggressive nature of the bloc was no longer concealed by the wording of the coalition's purely defensive orientation. Today, the alliance's strategic planning documents enshrine claims to global dominance. Alliance's interests include Africa, the Middle East and the Pacific Rim.

In the West's view, the established system of international relations should be replaced by a so-called rules-based world order. The logic here is simple and ultimatumatic. Either the alliance's "democratic partner" candidate loses sovereignty and becomes supposedly on the "right side of history". Or it is relegated to the category of so-called authoritarian regimes, against which all kinds of measures, up to and including coercive pressure, can be used.

Given that the Conference is attended by heads of defence agencies and security experts from different regions of the world, I would like to highlight some aspects of the special military operation in Ukraine.

In Ukraine, the Russian military is being confronted by combined Western forces that run the leadership of that country in a hybrid war against Russia.

The supply of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine is being stepped up, and training of the Ukrainian army is being carried out. Huge financial resources are transferred to maintain the viability of the nationalist regime.

The actions of Ukraine's armed forces are planned and coordinated by foreign military advisers. Reconnaissance data is supplied from all available NATO sources. The use of armaments is supervised by Western specialists.

NATO's efforts are aimed at prolonging the agony of the Kiev regime. However, we know for a fact that no one in NATO has any doubt that the goals of the Russian leadership's special military operation will be achieved, and that plans to strategically and economically weaken Russia are failing. The dollar has not reached the ceiling of 200 roubles, as predicted by the US president, the Russian economy has stood firm.

The special military operation has dispelled the myth of "super-weapons" supplied to Ukraine by the West, which are capable of fundamentally changing the situation on the front. Initially, they were talking about deliveries of Javelin anti-tank systems, some kind of "unique" drones. Lately, the Westerners have been promoting the role of super-weapons with HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems and long-range howitzers. However, these weapons also grind to a halt in battle. They did not make a significant impact. The Russian weapons, for their part, have proved their best qualities in combat.

We are taking a close look at trophy weapons from the West. The features and their specific qualities are taken into account in order to improve the way combat operations are conducted and the effectiveness of Russian armaments.

The supply of NATO weapons to Kiev means that Western countries are responsible for their inhumane use and for the deaths of civilians in Donbass and in the liberated territories. Ukrainian armed forces operations are planned in Washington and London. Not only are the coordinates of the targets to be attacked provided by Western intelligence, but the input of this data into weapons systems is conducted under the full control of Western specialists.

Kiev's role in the West's combat approach has been reduced to supplying manpower, which is seen as expendable. This explains the huge loss of personnel in Ukraine's armed forces and territorial defence formations.

So far, the real figures of dead soldiers and mobilised so-called territorial defence forces have been concealed by the Kiev leadership.

In time, however, this information will become public. The testimonies of POWs of AFU allow us to form a realistic picture of what is happening on the other side of the front. The dismissive attitude towards the loss of foreign soldiers reinforces the thesis that NATO has purely selfish interests in Ukraine. Clearly, Britain's colonial experience as the main sponsor of the Kiev regime has come in very handy for London in dealing with the current leadership in Kiev.

Against this background, speculation is spreading in the media about the alleged use of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in the special military operation or the readiness to use chemical weapons. All of these information gibberish are lies.

From a military point of view, there is no need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine to achieve its goals. The main purpose of Russian nuclear weapons is to deter a nuclear attack. Its use is limited to extraordinary circumstances as defined in the Russian guideline documents, which are open to public inspection.

The allegations about the possible use of chemical weapons in Ukraine are also absurd. Let me remind you that, unlike the US, such weapons were completely destroyed in our country back in 2017 as part of our international obligations. Meanwhile, poisoning provocations have become the hallmark of Western-sponsored so-called civil society organisations such as the White Helmets in Syria.

The information provocations are aimed at distracting attention from the facts discovered in Ukraine that US experts have conducted banned military and biological research.

Currently, a significant amount of data has been accumulated and is regularly made available to the general public. Work will continue in this direction.

S military-biological activities in Ukraine are not exceptional. Pentagon-controlled laboratories have been established and operate in many post-Soviet, Asian, African and Latin American countries. Local authorities generally have no control over research carried out on their premises that poses a lethal threat to the local population. The consequences of epidemics, I believe, were felt by all during the period of the fight against the spread of coronavirus.

 would like to focus separately on the humanitarian aspects of the special military operation. Compliance with the Geneva Conventions on the rules of war has always been and remains the focus of commanders at all levels. Since the beginning of the operation, orders have been issued stipulating the procedures to be followed by soldiers in dealing with civilians and enemy prisoners of war.

In the territories liberated from nationalists, the troops are actively involved in the delivery of humanitarian aid, the restoration of infrastructure and the maintenance of law and order. This was the case in Syria, in Nagorno-Karabakh, and it is also the case in Donbass.

On humanitarian issues, there has been fruitful cooperation with the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross. We are grateful for the constructive, depoliticised cooperation of the leaders and staff of these organisations who interact with us. In particular, under the auspices of the UN and with Turkey's active role, the difficult problem of grain exports from Ukraine's Black Sea ports was resolved. The Red Cross specialists carry out an important mediation mission in relation to captured soldiers.

NATO has recently initiated a new phase of alliance enlargement, with Sweden and Finland joining the military bloc. The claim that the reason for this was the Russian special operation is untrue.

The practical rapprochement between these countries and the alliance has been ongoing for many years. In fact, the regional association NORDEFCO (Committee for Nordic Defence Cooperation) is a northern affiliate of NATO and serves as a cover for these countries' participation in joint military training activities.

Of course, the official involvement of Helsinki and Stockholm in NATO's strategic planning and the possible allocation of territory to these states for deployment of strike weapons will change the security environment in the Baltic region and the Arctic and will require a reconsideration of approaches to defence of Russian territory.

Certain conclusions have already been reached and are enshrined in the updated Maritime Doctrine approved by the President of the Russian Federation on July 31. Work will continue in this area.

The reinforcement of the NATO military grouping on the "eastern flank" completes the degradation of the trust and arms control mechanisms that emerged in Europe during the Cold War. A few years ago, experts proposed that the European experience should be used to build confidence-building measures, in particular in the Pacific Rim. Now, of all the "baggage" of the Euro-dialogue, only the idea of bloc confrontation is exported to Asia, which has not brought anything positive to security in Europe.

Today, no one remembers the US destruction of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Limitation Treaty and the Open Skies Treaty. Although previously these agreements were crucial for disarmament and confidence-building.

Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which was conceived as a platform for dialogue and consideration of different views, has become a generator of anti-Russian narratives.

Vienna Document 2011 remains formally in force, but there are no prospects for practical implementation. In the absence of trust between the parties, the verification mechanism effectively becomes a source of intelligence, which is not in the spirit of this agreement.

The situation with regard to the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty is also complicated. The agreement remains in force until 2026. On the Russian side the commitments are fulfilled, the declared levels of carriers and warheads are maintained within the established limits.

U.S. claims that Russia must earn the right to continue dialogue with the U.S. do not resist criticism. Arms control is a two-way street.

The result is only achievable if the interests and commitment of all participants are balanced. I believe that the Russian experience of interaction with the West in the field of disarmament shows that the so-called rules-based peace it promotes does not involve the implementation of treaty obligations in the traditional sense. This fact needs to be taken into account when entering into agreements, especially in the field of security and arms control.

Western opposition to the consolidation of a multipolar world, along with Europe, is most active in the Asia-Pacific region, where the US has begun to dismantle the existing ASEAN-based system of regional cooperation. This started with the announcement of the AUKUS initiative by the US, Australia and the UK. Plans to expand this partnership to include new regional partners have not been concealed. AUKUS is merging with NATO, which in turn claimed a dominant role in the Asia-Pacific region at the June summit. This is despite the fact that all NATO countries are thousands of miles away from the region.

On 2 August, the Russian Federation marked the 77th anniversary of the Soviet Union's entry into the war with Japan, the occasion for which was Tokyo's militarist policy. The defeat of Japanese forces in the Far East effectively sealed the end of World War II and provided the start for the liberation of the peoples of Asia from colonial oppression. The assistance of the USSR was of key importance. We remember and are proud of the legacy of our ancestors, including those who laid the foundation for military cooperation between Russia and the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.

Another dangerous regional trend is the AUKUS focus on developing a nuclear submarine fleet in Australia. The implementation of this plan would have a complex negative impact on global and regional security, creating the conditions for undermining the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

The US claims that nuclear-powered submarines are needed in Australia ostensibly to offset China's growing naval capabilities. This logic in fact replicates the actions of the US in justifying its exit from the Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missile Treaty. The collapse of this agreement was also motivated by the need to offset Russian and Chinese efforts to develop missiles with a range allegedly prohibited by the treaty.

In the global context, the appearance of a nuclear-powered fleet in Australia will provide an excuse for other states to begin developing similar armaments. Pandora's box will be opened, the global nuclear arms race will resume.

AUKUS has the potential to develop into a politico-military alliance. It cannot be excluded that NATO's experience with joint nuclear planning and joint "allied" nuclear exercises will also be transferred to the region. The technical basis for this is already being laid by the active promotion of US-made aircraft. The participation of nuclear and non-nuclear weapon states in joint exercises on the use of nuclear weapons is contrary to obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Transferring nuclear training from Europe will blow up the region.

Although it can be assumed that this is precisely the purpose of the US. The provocative landing in Taiwan of a third person of the US bureaucratic hierarchy is another move to destabilise the situation.

Block-less, equal interaction in the region is an achievement that should not be lost due to externally imposed phobias and attempts to counter a multipolar world.

Mechanisms for interaction and dialogue with extra-regional partners are created and are proving their relevance and effectiveness. First and foremost is the ASEAN Defence Ministers' and Partners' Meeting, the so-called "ADMM-Plus" format. Its diverse activities focus on security issues of relevance to the Asia-Pacific region.

In addition, there is positive experience of cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, of implementing mutually beneficial projects on a bilateral basis.

As before, we are ready to share our experience of combat training, in particular during the Vostok-2022 strategic exercise to be held in the near future.

Despite significant successes in the fight against terrorism in the Middle East, the threat of international terrorist groups taking over the initiative remains. The Syrian military, in cooperation with allies and partners and with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, continues to suppress spikes in terrorist activity. We see a particular danger in using the Kurdish factor to unsettle the situation in Syria.

The engagement of the guarantor countries in the Astana format remains virtually the only legal and effective mechanism to address security concerns in Syria. We welcome the increased engagement between the Syrian leadership and the Arab world. Overcoming contradictions created by outside forces is possible and necessary.

The role of the military in building trust between countries is an important element in the search for political solutions. We expect that the Moscow conference will be one of the rallying points for the stabilisation of the situation in the Near East.

After the rapid withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan, the situation in the Central Asian region remains extremely tense. Afghanistan's new leadership faces serious military and economic challenges. The legacy of two decades of alliance troop presence is a disappointing one. As a result, there remains a high level of terrorist danger in the region.

The security problems of Central Asia can only be solved by coordinated action by all the countries and international organisations concerned. For our part, we will continue to support our Collective Security Treaty Organisation allies in enhancing the capabilities of national armed forces.

It is important to keep the topic of Afghanistan on the agenda of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation discussions. Russia, China, India, Iran and Pakistan together could make a significant contribution not only to stabilising the region, but also to preventing the threat from spreading beyond its borders.

The security of each region, despite the general trends of a multipolar world, has its own peculiarities.

For Africa, the specificity lies in the desire of the countries of the collective West to return to the order and rules of engagement typical of the colonial period. Neo-colonialism is imposed through military pressure on governments of sovereign countries and support for separatist and terrorist movements. A case in point is Libya, where statehood has still not been restored after the NATO invasion. Another example is the situation in West Africa, where European troops have been deployed on the pretext of combating terrorism. For decades, these EU missions had been fighting terrorists, training national security forces, until they recognised the utter failure of their own efforts.

I would like to point out that African governments and leaders are holding their own, as they call it, in the context of a multipolar world, to pursue their own agenda of independence, sovereignty, economic development and defence capabilities.

The Russian Ministry of Defence is seeking to expand cooperation with African countries in the field of military and military-technical cooperation. Interest in the participation of national teams and delegations from Africa in the Army International Games and the "ARMY 2022" IMTF has increased significantly. It is very encouraging that prominent military commanders from our friendly states - Burundi, Cameroon, Guinea, Mali, Sudan, Uganda, Chad, Ethiopia and the Republic of South Africa - are present in this hall today. We appreciate your support and intend to increase cooperation on mutually beneficial projects.

Latin America today faces serious security challenges because of the American desire to maintain influence in the region under the provisions of the so-called Monroe Doctrine. Liberal values, whose adherence is seen by the US as agreeing to live in a world based on their rules, in fact mask the true objective - to build up a military presence by blocking the possibility of sovereign development of states.

U.S. policy focuses on deterring engagement by countries in the region with any other pole of power outside Washington's control. The purpose of this policy is to involve the region in a confrontation with Russia and the PRC, to destroy traditional ties and to block new forms of cooperation in the military and military-technical spheres.

Anti-Russian information campaigns are launched in Latin America, hiding the truth about the causes and course of the special military operation in Ukraine. Analogies can be drawn to the British actions during the conflict in the Falkland Islands. What is happening in the Western media today with the coverage of the Russian special military operation was also happening when the media was chorally broadcasting only one point of view - that of London.

The question arises: are such policies in the fundamental interest of the countries of the region? The answer is clear - no. We hope that during the discussions at the conference we will hear assessments of the situation in Latin America from our partners from Venezuela and Nicaragua.

The Tenth Moscow Conference on International Security has a special importance for the Russian Ministry of Defence as organiser of the forum for a number of reasons.

Firstly, the conference is taking place during the ongoing special military operation in Ukraine. Despite attempts of the US and NATO to isolate Russia once again, your participation in the forum is a visible confirmation that these plans have collapsed. We appreciate your support.

Secondly, a multipolar world is the reality of today. The transition from dominance by a single global leader to several centres of gravity is not an easy one. However, this creates real conditions for the development of sovereign states.

Thirdly, the role of military agencies is changing in the new realities. The military not only guarantees a secure environment for economic development, but through military cooperation it builds predictability and trust between countries.

Finally, this is the tenth anniversary conference, which allows for a kind of review of what has been achieved over the years. It is important to observe how the priorities of the discussions have changed, and which conclusions and recommendations from the forum have been put into practice over the years. A short historical overview, prepared by Russian experts, can be viewed on the monitors between plenary sessions.

I wish you all good health and interesting contacts and discussions during your stay in Moscow.

Thank you for your attention.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 125. Socio-economic situation in Moldova: deadlocking

August 16, 2022

On August 14, new gas tariffs came into force in Moldova, the price of blue fuel for household consumers increased by 23.4%.

According to experts, tariffs will double by autumn. The population of the country has massively started harvesting firewood, which is sorely lacking. Manufacturers of autonomous heating sources, in particular, biomass pellets and briquettes, have raised prices due to a shortage of raw materials. Against the backdrop of a pan-European economic downturn, the Moldovan economy is in a state of crisis. The decrease in the income of the population is taking place against the background of an increase in the cost of the consumer basket. The collapse of production is accompanied by a rise in the unemployment rate. Founded in 1899, the largest Moldovan brick plant "Macon", which did not stop working during two world wars and the collapse of the socialist camp, could not withstand "integration into the European economic system" and ceased to exist.

Due to the difficult socio-economic situation dissatisfaction with the authorities is growing in Moldovan society, as evidenced by the steady decline in its popularity. The Moldovan data collection and analysis company Date Intelligente (iData) has published the results of a sociological survey of residents of the country conducted at the end of June 2022. The data obtained indicate that the level of trust in the current president of Moldova, M. Sande, is falling, while the rating of ex-president I. Dodon is growing.

For reference: Maia Sande - 22.2% (in May - 25.9%), honorary chairman of the Socialist Party Igor Dodon - 18.3% (in May - 15.3%), head of the Shor party Ilana Shor - 7.5 %, Mayor of Chisinau Ion Ceban - 3%, deputy from the party "Shor" Marina Tauber - 1.7%, ex-premier Ion Chicu - 1.2%, chairman of the Communist Party Vladimir Voronin - 1.1%, the rest of the candidates gained 3.9% of the vote).

Institute for Marketing and Surveys (IMAS)

On July 20 he presented the results of the study of the political preferences of the citizens of the Republic of Moldova "Public Opinion Barometer". Studies have shown that 62% of respondents are dissatisfied with living conditions, 72% believe that the country is moving in the “wrong direction”. It should be noted that 23% of respondents believe that I. Dodon is capable of leading the country out of the crisis, against 21%, who retained confidence in the pro-European course of policy of M. Sandu. 9% of respondents pin their hopes on I. Cheban, and 7% on I. Shor.

Along with this, about 75% of citizens are disappointed with the government of N. Gavrilitsa, calling the current Cabinet "the worst in the last 10 years." More than a third say that living standards have worsened since the liberal team came to power, 60% are in favor of early parliamentary and presidential elections. In case of early presidential elections, 25.4% would vote for I.Dodon, 24.4% for M.Sandu, in third place - I.Cheban with a result of 9.2%.

In the unfavorable conditions for the ruling elite, M. Sandu's team directed its efforts to neutralize the potential of the opposition. The arrest of the ex-president and honorary chairman of the Socialist Party I. Dodon has been extended. At the same time, the survey results discussed above show that almost two-thirds of Moldovan citizens see political motives in the arrest of the ex-president, 63% believe that M. Sandu and the ruling pro-European party “Action and solidarity. The chairman of the parliamentary faction "Shor" M. Tauber was charged with illegal foreign financing and corruption violations. After the removal of parliamentary immunity, she was placed in a pre-trial detention center.

Several dozen members of the faction are being searched.

Despite the threat of disruption of the heating season, Prime Minister of Moldova N. Gavrilitsa announced the decision of the government of the republic not to renew the contract with Gazprom. Simultaneously in the regional mass media, people are inspired with hope for supposedly coordinated financial and humanitarian support from the “collective West”. The “no alternative” of the European integration course and imaginary successes in rapprochement with the European Union are emphasized, the solution of the issue on accession to which, Chisinau plans to submit to a national referendum.

Thus, realizing the inability to normalize the socio-economic situation and contain the rise in prices, the ruling elite will continue to blame for the failures of their own policy on the opposition, which is gaining political weight. Leaders objectionable to the authorities, especially those who propose a solution to problems by resuming dialogue with Moscow, will be subjected to further harassment.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 126. The UNO and the IAEA cover up Ukrainian attacks on Zaporozhye NPP and Kakhovka HPS

August 17, 2022

Despite the emergency UN Security Council meeting held on August 11, 2022 (Moscow time), exclusively devoted to Ukrainian attacks against Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), Kiev’s failed and criminal regime continue to intentionally shell this the largest NPP in Europe. It did it before the meeting, on July 20, August 5 and 7, and even several hours before the UN SC debates, and several times after that – on August 12, 14, 16 and 17, 2022.

Located near the city of Energodar in southern Ukraine, the Zaporozhye facility is the largest nuclear plant in Europe fitted with six nuclear reactors. It has been under Russian security control and Ukrainian technical operators since the beginning of Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine.

In the result of such attacks one reactor unit was disconnected from the electrical grid, triggering its emergency protection system and setting generators into operation to ensure power supply. There was also shelling in a nitrogen-oxygen station.  Kiev’s “reckless” actions are pushing the world ever closer to a major nuclear disaster, Russia’s ambassador to the UNO, Vassily Nebenzia, told the Security Council on August 11.

EU ‘blatantly lying’ about threat to Zaporozhye nuclear plant – MoscowWhy the current neo-Nazi administration is so brave to use nuclear blackmail and nuclear terrorism that is by threatening to attack ZNPP despite the generally accepted views in the world community that any attack on any type of NPP could lead to a regional and global disaster caused by the radioactive contamination?

On August 16, local government administration member Vladimir Rogov told Russian media that Ukrainian forces had fired multiple rockets directly at the coolant systems and nuclear waste storage site inside the facility. Since the storage site is out in the open, any hit would result in the release of nuclear waste ranging from dozens to hundreds of kilograms and lead to contamination of the area, the official explained.

A total of nine countries could be contaminated if the Russian-controlled Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine is hit by multiple launch rocket systems, Vladimir Kuznetsov, a former chief inspector of the USSR’s nuclear authority told the press.

I count eleven such countries that will effected. Their number will depend on the winds’ direction.

The are several reasons for that gloomy scenario.

First. The UNO and the IAEA leaders namely Secretary General Antonio Guterres and Director General Rafael Grossi, respectively, do not criticize president Zelensky for such war crimes.

They never asked Kiev to stop shelling ZNPP.

They only generously permitted to themselves to produce commonly used phrases like “We denounce such attacks”. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Grossi, told the Security Council that the situation at the plant was under control and that there was “no immediate danger” to its safety as of yet (strange statement of the head of the IAEA about “no immediate danger” to the safety of the NPP). At the same time, he urged Russia and Ukraine to provide the IAEA access to the facility “as soon as possible.” One more unprofessional statement. Russia demands such IAEA on-site inspections initially at the Chernobyl NPP and many times at ZNPP from March 2022.

Kiev though there are a lot of remnants Both high-ranking officials never criticized the aggressor – of ammunition used by AFU and collected at the sites of attacks, like Ukrainian MLRS, Polish drones with bombs and long-range U.S heavy artillery. They are material evidence. By the way, during attack on August 17 two Ukrainian fire coordinators who shared targets sites with the AFU, have been captured. Naturally, they are additional human witnesses.

The UN has called the attacks “suicidal” and proposed sending an International Atomic Energy Agency delegation to the site to provide “technical support” and help avoid a further escalation.

  Second. The UNO and the IAEA leaders have never sent the IAEA inspection teams to the ZNPP. The IAEA Director General Grossi promised to do dispatch such team last March, but have not organize any such visit.

Third. Previously, they torpedoed to send any inspection teams Chernobyl NPP also shelled by Armed forces of Ukraine in spring this year.

Ukrainian nuclear site faces new threat Forth. The UNO and the IAEA leaders still have not specified any date for such long awaited the IAEA trip to ZNPP.

So, taking all these factors into account the chief clown implanted by the USA and NATO in Ukraine Zelensky still neglects the global concerns over potential nuclear catastrophe in Europe. Encouraged by these two international leaders Kiev recently attacked not only ZNPP, but Kakhovskaya Hydroelectic Power Station or KHPS located on the Russian territory proper that supplies electricity to Kakhovka NPP. Such aim is clear: the aim is to cut off electricity to Kakhovka NPP and to destroy it.

What are real intentions of Zelensky who is attacking Ukrainian NPP?

One of them is “to demilitarize the ZNPP”, to create a DMZ around it.

What does it mean?

The aim is to remove Russian troops from ZNPP, and sent there AFU contingents instead of them. Antonio Guterres has made a similar request, calling for the establishment of a demilitarized zone around the plant but without singling out Russian or Ukrainian forces. The U.S. Under Secretary for arms control and international security affairs, Bonnie Jenkins, demanded Moscow withdraw its troops. At the same time, she also backed Guterres’ call for a demilitarized zone meaning an area around the ZNPP and the withdrawal of Russian troops that control the area.

What is behind such scheme?

The task is to blackmail the Europeans in terms of nuclear disaster at the ZNPP without any hindrances. If Kiev dared to shell ZNPP many times in the presence of Russian troops, can you imagine what Zelensky will do if there no Russian military contingents at the ZNPP?

“The conclusion suggests itself: by destroying the energy infrastructure, the Kiev regime is exposing the many millions of people on the European continent to the danger of a nuclear cataclysm, with the connivance of Washington,” the Russian Foreign Ministry noted.


Does Moscow support “a DMZ” notion around ZNPP? Yes. It does, but in a different way. It insists that a demilitarized zone engulfing ZNPP should mean total ban on its shelling by any nation. Such ban should be proliferated to any NPP located everywhere on the globe.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 127. Russian MoD statement on the Kiev’s plans to destroy ZNPP

August 18, 2022

 

1. On August 18, 2022 Russian MoD spokesman made the following statement concerning Kiev’s plans to destroy Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP):

“On August 19, 2022 the Kiev regime is preparing another provocation at Zaporozhye NPP during the visit of UN Secretary-General António Guterres to Ukraine, as a result of which the Russian Federation will be blamed for creating a man-made disaster at the power plant.

In order to prepare for the provocation, the command of Dnepro operational-tactical group is deploying radiation observation posts near Zaporozhye by August 19. Also, the command is organizing training exercises for units of 108th Territorial Defence Brigade, 44th Artillery Brigade and military units deployed at Zaporozhye on measures to be taken in conditions of radioactive contamination of the area.

Besides, units of 704th RCBD [Radiological, Chemical and Bacteriological Defense] Regiment of AFU are to complete concentration in Zaporozhye area by August 19,2022 and be ready for fixing the accident at Zaporizhzhia NPP as well as for carrying out a set of measures for demonstration of supposedly liquidation of its consequences.

Units of 44th Artillery Brigade of AFU are planning to launch artillery strikes on the territory of ZNPP from firing positions located in Nikopol on August 19.

The Russian Armed Forces will be blamed for their consequences.

Ukrainian leadership has repeatedly spread rumours that Russian troops have occupied the nuclear power plant and are shelling AFU with long-range artillery systems while shielding themselves behind NPP.

We would like to point out that the Russian troops have no heavy weapons either on the territory of the plant or in the surrounding areas. Only security units are stationed there.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are taking all necessary measures to ensure the security of Zaporozhye NPP”.

2. Illustrative material to the statement (slides are attached separately)

Slide 1: Briefing according to the results of the analysis of a possible provocation at Zaporozhye NPP (title only)

 

Slide 2:

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is conducting an analysis of the development of the situation at the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant.

Starting from July 18, 2022, the station has been subjected to systematic shelling by the armed forces of Ukraine from multiple launch rocket systems, cannon artillery and using unmanned aerial vehicles.

As of August 18, 2022, that is one month later, Kiev implemented 12 attacks, during which more than 50 artillery shells and 5 kamikaze drones with high explosive were recorded on the territory of the ZNPP.

The Russian Defense Ministry conducted an investigation and established that the strikes were delivered from the direction of the settlements of the cities of Marganets and Nikopol.

As a result of the shelling, auxiliary support systems for the station were damaged, as well as life support facilities located in the city of Energodar.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Ukrainian side, together with their handlers from the USA, is trying to play the card, causing, in their opinion, a minor accident at the nuclear power plant and, thereby, disrupting the normal and safe operation of the NPP, blaming in this Russia.

 

Slide 3:

The Ukrainian side has repeatedly stated that the strikes on the station are carried out by the Russian Armed Forces, and Russian heavy weapons are located on the territory of the NPP, from which shelling is carried out at the targets of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

We are ready to present real very high resolution images to the IAEA. A sample is placed on a slide, which shows that weapons, especially heavy ones, are not placed at the territory of this station. This was also stated by the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation to the UN Secretary General Guterres during recent telephone call between them.

We know that in the presence of a large number of military and commercial foreign satellites, the same information can be presented to the world community and the American side.

At the same time, the USA is hushing up objective data about the shelling and the situation at the nuclear power plant, thereby encouraging the impunity of the Kyiv regime and contributing to the possible development of a nuclear catastrophe in Europe.

 

Slide 4:

I would like to note that it is no coincidence that the media widely cites the conclusions made by specialists from the U.S. Agency for Arms Control and Disarmament (Washington City, DC) and a number of other similar institutions of Western countries, and not the IAEA, which has the right to draw such conclusions, that a large-scale catastrophe at the Zaporozhye NPP is unlikely.

According to them, the thickness of the concrete shelters of its nuclear reactors is 10 meters, in addition, the station was designed and built taking into account the need to overcome the consequences of such incidents as the fall of a civilian aircraft.

At the same time, it is not excluded that a direct hit of large-caliber artillery shells in a dry spent nuclear fuel storage facility will lead to radioactive contamination of the area within a radius of up to 20 km, and an emergency at a nuclear reactor maximum – up to 30 km. At the same time, it is emphasized that the risks of the spread of radiation in the territory of European countries are assessed as minimal.

Thus, according to American experts, the consequences of the nuclear incident at the Zaporozhye NPP will be limited and will not affect the territory of European countries.

That is a very wrong assessment.

 

Slide 5:

At the same time, I would like to remind the UN Secretariat and the entire world community that the principal cause of the accidents at the Chernobyl NPP and the Fukushima NPP, despite the fact that in the first case there were experiments with a nuclear reactor, and in the second case, an earthquake and a tsunami, - this is a failure of support systems, power supply disruption, partial and complete blackout of cooling systems, which led to to overheating of nuclear fuel and destruction of the reactor.


As a result of the disaster at the Chernobyl NPP, the territory of more than 20 European countries was contaminated with radioactive isotopes. About 4 thousand people died from direct exposure to radiation, tens of thousands of cases of genetic deformities in newborns and hundreds of thousands of oncological diseases were recorded. Not counting the consequences of forced evacuation, up to 100 thousand people or more 5.5 million people received increased doses of radiation.

 


At the Fukushima nuclear power plant, only at first glance it may seem that the consequences are insignificant. Up to 500,000 people underwent a phased forced evacuation, and the consequences of the release of radioactive water into the ocean will be felt by descendants.

Unfortunately, it looks like that such case has been forgotten.

 

Slide 6:

According to Russian experts, due to the dangerous actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a similar situation may arise at the Zaporozhye NPP.

So, in case of failure of standby diesel generators and mobile pumps, in case of an emergency, the core of reactors will overheat and, as a result, the destruction of reactor plants at the largest in Europe a nuclear power plant with the release of radioactive substances into the atmosphere and carry them over hundreds of kilometers.

Such an emergency will cause mass migration of the population and will have more catastrophic consequences than the impending gas energy crisis in Europe, which is confirmed by the forecast of a number of European relevant organizations.


In addition, according to available information, as part of a trip to Ukraine from August 17 to 19, 2022, UN Secretary-General Guterres plans to visit the city of Odessa. By this date, the Armed Forces of Ukraine intend to stage a provocation of a man-made disaster at the Zaporozhye NPP, which consists in a radiation leak, the destruction of the integrity of the nuclear waste storage facility and the decommissioning of the nuclear power plant reactor into a state of emergency.


All this, according to their plan, should be the result of the military operations of the Russian Armed Forces on the territory of the nuclear power plant, the incompetence of Russian specialists involved in the operation of this nuclear facility.

For the purpose of staging, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are planning to fully deploy radiation monitoring posts in the formations, military units and subunits deployed in the Zaporozhye Region to fully deploy radiation monitoring posts, provide 100 percent of military personnel with NBC protection equipment, conduct training in chemical and radiation protection and other safety measures. In particular, units of the 44th separate Artillery Brigade were ordered to be ready for action by August 19, 2022 in conditions of radiation contamination of the area.

Same way, to the area of ​​the Zaporozhye NPP, units are being transferred 704 Separate Regiment of the RCB for the protection of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Artillery strikes on the Zaporozhye NPP are planned from the city blocks of the city of Nikopol.

Such "performance" will be accompanied by public alerts about the increase in background radiation and other "special effects". The staging is being carried out in the interests of influencing the UN Secretary General and the international community to cover up decisions that are beneficial to Kyiv.

The ultimate goal of the provocation is the creation of an exclusion zone (up to 30 km), the introduction of international forces and foreign observers to the territory of the Zaporozhye NPP, as well as the accusation of the Russian Armed Forces of attacking the plant protected by Russian troops.

As a conclusion from the above, we would like to draw your attention to the fact that if the negative development of the situation related to the shelling of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant by Ukrainian Armed Forces continues, the issue of transferring into the "cold reserve" of nuclear reactors # 5 and # 6 will be considered. It will subsequently lead to the shutdown of the overall Zaporozhye NPP.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin
 

 

Report # 128. Taiwan's powder keg with the label: “Made in the USA”

August 19, 2022

 

On August 2, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan.

During the meeting with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, she said that Washington would not relinquish its commitment to Taipei, calling her visit "part of a larger struggle for the future of democracy." In a post-arrival Washington Post article, the American politician expressed admiration for "Taiwan's commitment to a democratic government", and concern over the sharp rise in tensions in the region in recent years.” The reason for the "great hype" around the visit to Taiwan, she identified "the position she holds."

The world community closely watched the progress of the visit. Among the consequences of this obscure demarche was even the possible unleashing of a third world war. The PRC prudently did not take aggressive action, but obviously plans and implements adequate responses.

In a briefing broadcast by CNN, John Kirby, the White House National Security Council's strategic communications coordinator, said the USA "will continue to support Taiwan, defend a free and open Indo-Pacific, strive to maintain communication with Beijing," while excluding the possibility of armed confrontation. He added that the recent visit does not mean a violation of China's territorial sovereignty.

On the same day, the official website of the Chinese Foreign Ministry published the country's unequivocal position on Pelosi's visit, which was declared a major political provocation and a serious violation of China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

China's Xinhua News Agency quoted National Foreign Minister Wang Yi as saying that Beijing would leave no room for Taipei's pro-independence forces to act. He emphasized that the reunification of China with Taiwan is a historical inevitability, and attempts to use the island to contain China are doomed to failure.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Chinese officials, including CCP leader Xi Jinping in a telephone conversation with President Biden, warned the US against Mrs. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. After her arrival in Taipei, Beijing said it was preparing live-fire military exercises this week.

in the areas surrounding the island. In turn, in an interview with the British edition of The Guardian, Chinese Ambassador to the UK Zheng Jieguang warned London against trying to repeat the precedent set by the United States. “Such visits will be regarded as interference in China’s internal affairs and will lead to to serious consequences in Sino-British relations."

The American edition of The New York Times wrote that Pelosi's act is reckless, risky and irresponsible. Her ill-advised visit to Taiwan will not make the world a safer place. On the contrary, the US will have even more problems not only with China, but also with its "closest ally" - Russia. Earlier, Biden and his national security adviser Jake Sullivan held a series of meetings with the Chinese leadership, pleading with Beijing not to enter the Ukraine conflict. The editorial noted that China has refused military assistance to Putin, while the United States and NATO have provided Ukraine with a significant amount of weapons that have caused damage to the armed forces of Russia, supposedly an ally of China. It is clear that Pelosi's provocative actions will be followed by a revision of the hard-won agreements.

Readers of the website of the Japanese TV channel NHK were also distrustful of the visit of the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. Many speculated that the move would exacerbate the situation in the region. The Japanese are concerned that the United States is using the island to provoke the PRC, just as they used Ukraine to provoke Russia.

In 1995-1996, the so-called "Taiwan crisis" occurred, when, as a retribution for the visit of the president of the partially recognized state of Shanghai to the States, China launched missiles off the coast of the island. Only after sending a group of US Navy warships to the region did China retreat. Today, the Biden administration is in a predicament in a hypothetical confrontation with a stronger Beijing. An attempt to demonstrate impunity and permissiveness will inevitably lead to a fall in the authority of the United States.

On August 14, following in the footsteps of Nancy Pelosi, a delegation of U.S. congressmen led by Democratic Senator Ed Markey arrived in Taiwan. The purpose of the unannounced visit was to meet with senior Taiwanese officials to discuss issues of bilateral relations, regional security, trade and investment, global supply chains, climate change, and other initiatives of mutual interest. In addition to Ed Markey, the group also included Congressmen John Garamendi (D), Alan Lowenthal (D), Don Byer (D) and Amata Radevagen (R).

The visit took place despite the attempts of the coordinator of the U.S. National Security Council J. Kirby to soften the rhetoric and to prevent the escalation of tensions in bilateral relations in connection with the "Taiwan tour" of the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the National Congress. Leveling the consequences of Pelosi's "demarche", he stated that Beijing exaggerated the consequences of the visit of a third official of the American state and the U.S. commitment to the "one China" policy. However, after several days it became obvious that Washington has nevertheless embarked on the path of a new political confrontation with the PRC.

Chinese media outlet South China Morning Post (SCMP), citing an official representative of the Eastern Theater Command of the PLA, announced the exercises scheduled for the near future, the purpose of which is "preparation for operations to protect and blockade the self-governed island by the combined forces."

Traditionally, the USA does not intend to strengthen its leading position in the international arena alone. How many times the beneficiaries justify the creation of a real threat of a large-scale conflict with the fabricated need to fight for the “triumph of world democracy”. Thus, members of Formosa, an informal association of legislators from European countries, Canada and the European Parliament, pledged to "support Taiwan" through "regular visits, joint dialogues or cooperation." In turn, Bundestag member Holger Baker announced that a German parliamentary delegation would visit Taiwan in the first half of October 2022. In November-December, a group of members of the British House of Commons, headed by the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Tom Tugendhat, intends to arrive on the island.

All previous and future visits of politicians from NATO countries to Taiwan show that the Western community began a new policy: to tie up Taipei to Washington, London, Berlin, etc. via “parliamentary diplomacy” blocking potential unification of the PRC with Taiwan.

The similarity of the methods used by the Americans to ensure dominance in various regions of the world, their direct disregard for the principle of the indivisibility of security, are clearly manifested as in the situation around Ukraine, and in relation to Taiwan. Through Washington's promotion of a "free and open Indo-Pacific" strategy aimed at creating narrow-bloc structures and pushing NATO into Southeast Asia, it reduces the level of collective security. Experts agree that the consequences of such a U.S. policy are aimed at inciting an armed conflict in the Asia-Pacific region.

Addressing the participants in the Moscow International Conference on Security on August 16th, 2022 President Vladimir Putin outlined:


“The situation in Ukraine shows that the United States is attempting to draw out this conflict. It acts in the same way elsewhere, fomenting the conflict potential in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. As is common knowledge, the USA has recently made another deliberate attempt to fuel the flames and stir up trouble in the Asia-Pacific. The US escapade towards Taiwan is not just a voyage by an irresponsible politician, but part of the purpose-oriented and deliberate U.S. strategy designed to destabilize the situation and sow chaos in the region and the world. It is a brazen demonstration of disrespect for other countries and their own international commitments. We regard this as a thoroughly planned provocation”.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 13. KIEV AND NATO PLANNED TO ATTACK DONBASS AND CRIMEA ON MARCH 8, 2022. THEY MISCALCULATED

1. Moscow disrupted NATO-Ukrainian schemes

The documents loaded in the notebook belonging to NATO and the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) that was found at the captured position of the UAF clearly proved that transatlantic alliance HQ and Kiev have planned to launch a large-scale attack vs Donbass and Crimea on March 8th, 2022.
 
Before Russian military operation aimed at liberation of Ukraine started February 24th, 2022 up to 50 heavy cargo planes carrying military hardware from the US, UK, Canada, Poland, and Lithuania landed in Ukraine prior to the start of the Russian military operation there, Russia’s Foreign Ministry has revealed. Some 2,000 tonnes of modern weapons, ammunition, and protective gear were supplied to Ukraine in the first month and a half of 2022. According to NATO statement issued February 25th, 2022 (Doc. # (2022/046), 17 NATO countries with their names specified of 30 deliver lethal weapons to ultra-nationalist Ukraine.
 

2. On March 6th, 2022 Russian troops continued the military operation according to the plan and real situation

The Russian Armed Forces have destroyed 2,203 targets of the Ukrainian military infrastructure since the beginning of the special military operation. Russian fighter jets and air defence systems have shot down ten Ukrainian combat aircraft and helicopters over the past 24 hours.
 
Totally, from February 24th by March 6th, 2022 69 Ukrainian aircraft on the ground and 24 aircraft in the air, 778 tanks and APCs, 77 MLRS, 279 field artillery and mortars, 553 special military vehicles, as well as 62 unmanned aerial vehicles,
including Turkish-made Bayraktar TB-2, as well as 76 command and control plus communication centers, 111 MDS S-300, Buk M-1 and Osa anti-aircraft missile systems, as well as 71 radar stations were also destroyed.
 
Nearly all Ukrainian capable combat aircraft ceased to exist.
 

3. Kiev’s lust for nuclear & biological weapons

While working on the creation of a nuclear explosive devices, Kiev was also actively engaged in modernizing existing and designing of new medium-range missiles to be used for their delivery in close cooperation with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. In order to accelerate the R &D, the USA transferred plutonium to Kiev. The Kharkiv Institute of Physics and Technology as well the Kiev-based Institute for Nuclear Research and many other scientific institutions across Ukraine have been involved in nuclear weapon development.
 
During the current campaign some documents have been found revealing that the USA was helping Kiev to create biological weapons. For this purpose, blood samples have been taken from 4.000 Ukrainian GIs to test their resistance to various highly virulent bacteria. The order signed by the Health Minister of Ukraine February 24th, 2022 demanded two military biolabs in Ukraine in Poltav & Kharkov Regions to destroy all docs and samples of cholera, tularemia, anthrax, plague and others. These labs have been financed by the Pentagon. The results of the investigation will be published later
 

4. Kiev still shelled Donbass, damaging civilian infrastructure, and prevented civilians to leave Mariupol via humanitarian corridor

“Azov” ultra-nazi battalion shelled a vehicle packed with trapped people wishing to flee – all Ukrainians. The UNO Secretary General, the OSCE, the IRC and BDIHR keep dead silence over such tragedy.
 

5. Zelensky’s fate is determined

An elite commando force consisting of 150 US Navy SEALS and over 70 British SAS or Special Air Service commandos are stationed at Shaulai AFB in Lithuania with the task to evacuate him urgently from Ukraine. He has been treated several times shortly in the neighboring NATO countries against mental and nerve systems disorders. The recent CNN interview with him is a vivid proof of that.
 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 
 

Report # 130. The USA incites Kiev to attack Crimea, historically Russian land

August 23, 2022

1. The USA incites Kiev to hit Crimea

Washington’s continued support for Kiev during Moscow’s military operation has put the USA on the verge of becoming party to the Ukrainian conflict, Russia’s deputy Foreign Minister, Sergey Ryabkov has said.

“We don't want escalation. We’d like to avoid a situation, in which the US becomes a party to the conflict, but so far we don’t see any readiness of the other side to take these warnings seriously,” Ryabkov told Rossiya 1 TV channel on August 19.

Moscow rejects Washington's explanation, that providing Ukraine with weapons and other aid is justified by Kiev’s right to self-defense, he pointed out.

“Excuse me, what kind of self-defense is it if they are already openly talking about the possibility of attacking targets deep in the Russian territory, in Crimea?” the Deputy FM wondered.

According to Ryabkov, such statements are being made by the Ukrainian side “not just under the blind eye of the US and NATO, but with the encouragement of this kind of sentiment, approaches, plans and ideas directly from Washington,” Ryabkov insisted.

“The ever more obvious and deeper involvement in Ukraine in terms of countering our military operation, in fact, puts this country, the US, on the verge of turning into a party to the conflict,” he reiterated.

The US has been the strongest supporter of Kiev amid its conflict with Russia, providing Kiev with billions of dollars in military and financial aid, as well as intelligence data. Washington’s deliveries to the Ukrainian military have included such sophisticated hardware as HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, M777 howitzers and combat drones.

On August 19 that U.S. President Joe Biden announced another lethal aid package for Kiev of around $800 million. It is 19th ‘basket”’ of weapons he has initiated that would be sent to a very failed country named Ukraine.


Overall expenditures of the White House since Joseph Biden became # 1 in the USA reached $ 12,6 billion.


An unnamed official from the Biden administration told Politico on August 18 that the White House had no problem with Ukraine attacking Crimea, which became part of Russia after a 2014 referendum staged in response to a violent coup. The USA believes that Kiev can strike any target on its territory, and “Crimea is Ukraine,” the American official insisted.

2. Kiev openly declared itself the successor of Ukrainian nationalists

This was stated by Sergei Shoigu, Russian Defence Minister, at the First International Anti-Fascist Congress.

“The Verkhovna Rada [Ukrainian Parliament] proclaimed the OUN-UPA fighters for national independence. After the collapse of the USSR, Washington did everything to create an antipode of Russia from Ukraine”, added the head of the Ministry of Defense. These Ukrainian organizations organization have been recognized as extremist and banned on the territory of Russia by decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation made on November 17, 2014.

Thousands of Ukrainian children have been poisoned by the neo-Nazi ideology in the years since the maidan coup in February.  Grown-ups have consistently taught them hatred, calling it patriotism. To that end, the country established a whole network of children's camps, whose instructors had served as punishers in the Donbass.

'Let Moscow Lie in Ruins!' In 2017, the American TV network NBC aired a story about the Azovets children's summer camp near Kiev. Children living in the Ukrainian capital and nearby districts spent their vacations there.

At first glance, there was nothing "criminal" about the camp's program: drills, military training, the reconstruction of battles, and survival skills. However, the main purpose of the program was to ferment an aggressive ideological narrative among these young Ukrainian patriots. A video shot by an NBC journalist showed children chanting inspirationally:

"What is our motto? We are the children of Ukraine! Let Moscow lie in ruins, we don't care! We will conquer the whole world! Death to Russkies!"

This was their motto. This is what their "big brothers", instructors from the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion, taught them.

A Ukrainian girl in the Azovets military camp near Kiev, shouting: Let Moscow lie in ruins! We don't care! Footage from a news report by the American broadcaster NBC.

A Ukrainian girl in the Azovets military camp near Kiev, shouting: "Let Moscow lie in ruins! We don't care!" Footage from a news report by the American broadcaster NBC.

The purpose of their mission was clearly designated: to wage war on Russians, to destroy the Russians as their main and worst enemy. This is how they were indoctrinated with a sense of belonging to the "great cause”.

NBC presented an interview with the camp instructors. They discuss their mission: “The children don't know what war is, and we have to tell them what it is, because retaking Crimea and taking over Kuban are ahead of us.” Kuban is a historical and geographical region of Southern Russia located mostly in the Krasnodar region. Their plans were clearly outlined.

In 2019, Spanish correspondent Ethel Bonet from El Confidencial shared her impressions of the paramilitary children's camp “Leader” near Kiev.

“Eight-year-old Victoria seems like an ordinary girl. And her dreams for the future can hardly be called very different from those of her peers: she dreams of becoming a fashion designer. Or maybe a model when she grows up. But the little girl already feels like a soldier. And one does not preclude her future in the ranks of combatants of Ukrainian army. At war with whom? But her instructors explain this to her. Those either who have been in battles against the ‘pro-Russian separatists’ or who have taken part in sabotage operations by the Ukrainian armed forces in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk republics.”

The journalist noted that “Victoria's determination frightens even adults,” and cited the child's words:

“There is only one Ukraine, and we have to protect it. That's why I came here. I want to learn how to fight. I really enjoy shooting a pistol and walking around in military camouflage.”

In 2018, the Leader paramilitary camp hosted up to 200 children aged 7 to 16 during a 20-day shift. The camp ran for three summer months. Full board was $18 a day. The camp's regimen was rigorous, packed to the brim with drills. Moving between facilities was strictly in formation.

The daily physical training “menu” included swimming, running, physical exercises, obstacle courses, climbing rope. Children were taught to handle firearms: seven-year-olds easily disassembled and assembled automatic rifles blindfolded. They mastered shooting from pneumatic weapons.

The background sounds were ultra-nationalist anthems. The marching in formation and the chanting of the slogans “Ukraine Is Above All!”, “Heroes Are Immortal, Enemies Must Die!”, “Leader Opens the Path! Ukraine Is United! Victory or Death!”

There are dozens of such children's military camps in Ukraine. In the years since the so-called Revolution of Dignity, thousands of young Ukrainians have gone through this school of radicalism and hatred. If the goals of the ideologists of neo-Nazism were quite obvious, what did the parents hope for and what did they want to achieve by sending their children voluntarily to a place where they were trained to be aggressive ethnic nationalists?

Family psychologist Yekaterina Sivanova explained the dangers facing children who attend such "patriotic" camps and how it can affect their psyche:

“In this example, the accents placed by adults are important. Children are being indoctrinated to believe that those people are not human, that they must be killed. The child has no right to doubt; he takes it on faith that those are not people, relying on the opinion of the adults in charge.

3. Ukrainian ambassador accused of ‘ethnic hatred’

Kazakhstan’s Presidential Board condemned Ukrainian diplomat who spoke about ‘killing Russians’.

Such remarks made this week by the Ukrainian envoy about killing Russians are completely “unacceptable,” the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan (APK) has stated. 

Pyotr Vrublevsky, the Ukrainian ambassador to the Central Asian country, his photo being attached here, told a local blogger in an interview about the Ukraine conflict on August 22: “We are trying to kill as many [Russians] as possible. The more Russians we kill now, the fewer our children will have to.”

“In our country, where peace and unity are the key principles of state policy and societal consolidation, such statements are unacceptable and inappropriate, no matter who makes them,” the APK, an advisory body to the president of Kazakhstan, said in a statement released on August 23.


The Ukrainian diplomat’s words sparked outrage in Russia and among the Russian community in Kazakhstan. Russian Foreign Ministry said that “only an ambassador of a terrorist regime can say such things.”


Comment: Is he really ‘an ambassador’ or ’a diplomat’? He de facto and de jure is a gangster, and should be declared as ‘persona non grata’ without any delay. That is the overwhelming mood in Russia.

4. The Ukrainian economy is expected to plunge by 40% this year

The Ukrainian economy is expected to plunge by 40% this year, according to S&P Global Ratings, which raised the country’s foreign currency sovereign credit ratings on Friday, adding that Kiev had completed a distressed debt restructuring.

The agency’s forecast coincides with that of Kiev, issued on the same day.

Economic Development and Trade Minister Yulia Sviridenko said on Friday that Ukraine’s GDP in the remaining months of 2022 could fall by up to 40%, citing the conflict with Russia as a major reason.

Boosting the country’s credit score of foreign debt to CCC+ “reflects strong committed international financial support to Ukraine, coupled with eroding, albeit still relatively high, foreign exchange reserves,” the agency said in a statement.

Major rating agencies declare Ukraine in defaultREAD MORE: Major rating agencies declare Ukraine in default

In its latest upgrade, S&P joined Fitch, which raised Ukraine’s credit score on Thursday. However, S&P warned that “given the ongoing conflict with Russia, Ukraine’s ability to stay current on its debt is highly dependent on factors largely outside of government control.”

Earlier this month, both agencies lowered Ukraine’s foreign currency ratings to ‘selective default’ and ‘restricted default’, respectively, saying the country’s debt restructuring was seen as distressed.

The downgrade came shortly after state-run firms Ukrenergo and Ukravtodor requested a two-year freeze on payments on almost $20 billion in international bonds. The country’s overseas creditors agreed to suspend interest payments and postpone the maturity date of the bonds by two years.

5. Kiev intends to steal Russian gas to Europe once again

Former speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Dmytro Razumkov has assured that stealing Russian gas in transit is legal.

Kiev should start confiscating the gas that Russia supplies to Europe through the territory of Ukraine and sell it independently to the union, former Rada speaker and former head of the ruling party Sluha Naroda, MP Dmytro Razumkov said on Facebook. He opined that the gas belongs to Russia as long as it does not cross the EU border, which means it is subject to Ukrainian legislation on the confiscation of Russian assets.

“The gas that is transported through the territory of Ukraine, it is Russian. Up to the border with Europe it is Russian gas. And what do we do under the law? We can confiscate it,” Razumkov wrote.

Last time Kiev has stolen Russian natural transit gas supplied to Europe in 2009. The West never criticized Ukraine for such robbery.

6. Ukraine still commits genocide crimes against civilians in Donbass

Over the past day August 20th, according to the Representative Office of the JCCC in the DPR, AFU fired two hundred and sixty-eight ammunition from Grad multiple launch rocket systems, 155, 152 and 122-mm cannon artillery, as well as 120-mm mortars.

The fire was fired at the districts of eleven settlements of the Republic. As a result of shelling, two civilians were killed, one was injured of varying severity. Eleven houses were damaged.

Over the past day, according to the Representative Office of the JCCC in the DPR, the enemy fired two hundred and sixty-eight ammunition from Grad multiple launch rocket systems, 155, 152 and 122-mm cannon artillery, as well as 120-mm mortars.

The fire was fired at the districts of eleven settlements of the Republic. As a result of shelling, two civilians were killed, one was injured of varying severity. Eleven houses were damaged.

Over the past day, according to the Representative Office of the JCCC in the DPR, the enemy fired two hundred and sixty-eight ammunition from Grad multiple launch rocket systems, 155, 152 and 122-mm cannon artillery, as well as 120-mm mortars.

The shelling took place against the districts of eleven settlements of the republic. As a result of shelling, two civilians were killed, one was injured of varying severity. Eleven houses have been partly destroyed.

7. The U.S. State Department urged U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine immediately

The U.S. Department of State has called on Americans to leave the territory of Ukraine as soon as possible. A statement issued to this effect was published on 23 August, 2022 on the official website of the American Embassy in Kiev  [source:  https://ua.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kyiv-ukraine-6/?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop]

It is noted that the situation throughout Ukraine remains unstable and may deteriorate “without warning”. The U.S. Embassy cited safe private ground transportation options as the preferred method of evacuation.

Th Embassy advised the following actions to take: to know the location of your closest shelter or protected space; to follow the instructions from local authorities and seek shelter immediately in the event of mortar and/or rocket fire; to regularly monitor local and international news and social media news channels; to ensure travel documents are valid and easily accessible, and six more measures.

8. Situation on the battlefields

Ukrainian troops have shelled residential buildings in Donetsk using NATO-supplied 155mm caliber artillery, city officials claimed on August 22. An apartment complex in the capital of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) “took a direct hit,” Mayor Alexey Kulemzin wrote on Telegram. Three civilians were killed, he added.

On August 23 AFU again shelled Donetsk by using U.S. M142 HIMARS and long-range artillery. Four civilians have been killed and ten were injured. The Office of the head of the DPR Administration has been hit. Nobody has been hurt.

The Russian Armed Forces have destroyed with Kalibr cruise missiles an ammunition depot in the Odessa Region, where missiles for U.S. multiple rocket launchers HIMARS were stored, Russian Defense Ministry reported on August 21

High-precision sea-based long-range Kalibr missiles near the village of Mayorskoye in the Odessa Region destroyed an ammunition depot with missiles for the American HIMARS multiple-launch rocket systems and Western-made anti-aircraft systems," the MoD said.

The Kalibr (NATO classification: SS-N-27 Sizzler) is a Russian cruise missile developed and produced by the Novator Design Bureau. The Russian Armed Forces currently use two modifications of these missiles: Kalibr-NK (ship-based) and Kalibr-PL (mounted on submarines).

The exact characteristics of the Kalibr are not known for certain. According to various data, range of these missiles is up to 375 km against sea targets and up to 2,600 km against land targets, maximum weight of the HE warhead is 500 kg.

The complex entered the service of the Russian Navy in 2012. The missiles were first used during the military operation against terrorists in Syria. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the missile was used on 13 occasions, with a total of at least 99 missiles fired at terrorist targets.

9. Turkey comments on progress of Ukrainian grain deal

“Since August 1, a total of 53 vessels have sailed for grain shipments, 27 of which have departed from Ukrainian ports,” Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said at Istanbul’s Joint Coordination Center.

However, earlier last week, the Kremlin, commenting on a call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, noted that “obstacles for the Russian grain [exports] persist,” which has an adverse effect on the world’s food security.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. addressed this problem to some extent, reiterating that “it is important that all governments and the private sector cooperate to bring” food and fertilizers to market.

“Without fertilizer in 2022, there may not be enough food in 2023,” he warned. “Getting more food and fertilizer out of Ukraine and Russia is critical to further calm commodity markets and lower prices for consumers.”

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Report # 131. At the SC Russia proved that Kiev is shelling of ZNPP

August 24, 2022

1. The Russian envoy briefed the UN Security Council on recent Ukrainian attacks on the ZNPP.

Russia has submitted photographic evidence of several Ukrainian rocket and artillery attacks on the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant or ZNPP to the UN Security Council, Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said on August 23 according to Moscow time. He also briefed the SC on the most recent attacks, arranged by Kiev in August, some of which involved NATO-supplied weapons, and insisted that Russia does not use the site as a military base and does not deploy heavy weapons there.

“The Russian Ministry of Defense is ready to provide the IAEA with high-resolution images, which show that weapons, especially heavy ones, are not placed on the territory of the station,” he added.

In addition to the photographic evidence of Ukrainian shelling of the plant, Nebenzia entered into the record a timeline of strikes, named the Ukrainian artillery unit involved, and specified which strikes featured M777 howitzers given to Ukraine by the Pentagon.

“It seems that our colleagues exist in some kind of their own parallel reality, in which the Russian military shells the ZNPP it is protecting, using American systems at that,” Nebenzia said. He also noted that there is a normal co-operation between Ukrainian operators at the plant and Russian soldiers responsible for its security.

Contrary to insinuations by Kiev and its Western backers, Nebenzia noted, Moscow had given consent to the IAEA to visit the ZNPP back in June, before the Ukrainian drone, artillery and rocket attacks began. But Kiev disrupted such inspection visit.

Nebenzia blamed the USA and its allies for tolerating “criminal” behavior by Ukraine – from the shelling of the ZNPP to the car bomb that killed Russian journalist Darya Dugina in Moscow over the weekend (some details are in item 2).

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said on August 23 he would personally head the agency mission to the ZNPP in the coming days, and that the UN nuclear watchdog intends to establish a permanent presence on site. But he linked the trip to the results of negotiations with Kiev that insists that the team should go there via Ukraine.


A straightforward question:

what Zelensky will do with the ZNPP in the absence of the Russian security guards around it, if he shells the plant day in, day out in their presence?


2. Russia blamed Ukraine for killing Darya Dugina

The murder of a 29 years old journalist Darya Dugina was committed by a Ukrainian national, the Russian Federal Security Service claimed.

The car bombing outside Moscow on August 20, 2022 which took the life of journalist Darya Dugina [her photo with her father below], was orchestrated and carried out by Ukrainian secret services, the Russian Federal Security Service or FSB has stated.

Car blast kills daughter of Russian philosopher DuginDugina was killed while returning from a festival held in Moscow Region. She was the daughter of a political commentator Aleksandr Dugin. Like her father, she was known for her vocal support of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine defending civilians in Donbass and in other areas in Ukraine.

The Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his condolences to the relatives of Darya Dugina. He called Darya as a “talented person with a radiant personality and true Russian heart”.  She “showed with her actions what it means to be a patriot of Russia,” the president added, blasting her murder as“heinous and cruel crime.” The Russian president has posthumously awarded Darya Dugina the Order of Courage.

In a statement on August 22, the FSB said that Ukrainian national Natalya Vovk, also known as Natalya Shaban [her photo is below] was born in 1979 and having links with the AFU and “Azov” nationalist faction, carried out the bombing.

Russia releases video of suspected Moscow car bomberAccording to the FSB, Vovk arrived in Russia with her teenage daughter on July 23, 2022 and rented an apartment in the building in Moscow where the victim also lived. Vovk and her daughter attended the ‘Tradition’ festival on August 20, where Aleksandr Dugin delivered a lecture and his daughter was present, the FSB said.

Investigators stated earlier that a bomb was planted under the Toyota Land Cruiser Prado SUV Dugina used to leave the event. The bomb was detonated remotely, killing Dugina as she was driving on a highway.

Her father who was travelling behind her in another car became an eye witness of the explosion.

Vovk then urgently left Moscow with her daughter for Estonia on August 21.

The FSB added that Vovk used only one car with a license plate from the Donetsk People’s Republic when entering Russia, but replaced it with a Kazakhstan license plate when driving in Moscow, and a Ukrainian plate when crossing into Estonia. Ordinary citizens do not change plate numbers during short trips so many times.

Moscow will show no mercy towards those responsible for the death of Darya Dugina, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said. “I consider it a barbaric crime for which no forgiveness can be granted,” he said.

Pope Francis has denounced the killing of Darya Dugina,


Peace be upon you, Darya


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 132. Council of the Russian State Duma adopted a statement on ZNPP, permanently shelled by AFU

August 26, 2022

 

1. On the August 25, 2022 the Council of the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian Federal Assembly (Parliament), unanimously adopted the following statement supported by the leaders of all political parties represented at the State Duma:

Statement of the Council of the State Duma on the threats arising from the shelling of the ZNPP Ukrainian military units

The Council of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation strongly condemns the ongoing shelling by Ukrainian military units of Europe's largest Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) over the past few weeks.

The critical infrastructure of ZNPP is subjected to missile and artillery strikes, the violation of nuclear and physical safety of which threatens a large-scale catastrophe in the center of the European continent. The consequences of the reckless actions of Kiev, which gives orders to shell the ZNPP, can become truly terrifying.

On the territory of the Russian Federation, Ukrainian saboteurs undermine power lines leading to the Kursk nuclear power plant.

A series of major accidents at nuclear power plants, obviously, did not teach Kiev and its NATO patrons anything. Russophobic ideology outweighs the principles of nuclear security.

It is only thanks to the dedication of the Russian servicemen who carry out their duty as part of a special military operation in Ukraine that it has been possible so far to provide the necessary protection for the main facilities of the ZNPP and the nearby city of Energodar.

The inherently terrorist attacks on the ZNPP are violations of international humanitarian law, which entails the responsibility of the states involved and politicians who give criminal orders and carry them out.

Russia constantly raises in the UN Security Council the question of the inadmissibility of strikes against the ZNPP by Ukraine. Gives irrefutable evidence of the crimes of the Kyiv regime. Calls on countries that influence Kyiv to force the Ukrainian side to immediately stop shelling.

Western countries are becoming accomplices and accomplices in crimes, supplying Ukraine with ever heavier types of weapons. By condoning the barbaric attacks on the ZNPP, the sponsors of Kyiv endanger the peoples of their countries, which is irresponsible and inadmissible.

The Council of the State Duma, which includes, among other things, the heads of factions of all political parties represented in the State Duma, calls on the UN and the IAEA, as well as national parliaments, inter-parliamentary organizations and bodies:

- give a fundamental assessment of the criminal actions of Kyiv;

- to demand from the authorities of Ukraine an immediate cessation of shelling of the ZNPP and other objects, the destruction of which carries the danger of radioactive, chemical and biological contamination and a tech man-made disaster.

The Council of the State Duma demands to stop the supply of weapons to Ukraine, with which the anti-people Kyiv regime kills and maims people, creates the risk of a nuclear catastrophe.

We appeal to the citizens of Ukraine with a request to realize the terrible consequences of the criminal and provocative policy of the Kyiv regime.

The Council of the State Duma reaffirms the readiness of the Russian side to do everything necessary to organize an international IAEA mission to the Zaporizhia NPP so that the agency’s specialists can testify on the spot that there are threats posed as a result of constant Ukrainian attacks on the nuclear power plant, which are fraught with tragic consequences for all mankind.”

Moscow, August 25, 2022

 

Original in Russian

 

Заявление Совета Государственной Думы об угрозах, возникающих в результате обстрелов украинскими военными формированиями Запорожской атомной электростанции

 

Совет Государственной Думы Федерального Собрания Российской Федерации решительно осуждает продолжающиеся в течение последних нескольких недель обстрелы украинскими военными формированиями крупнейшей в Европе Запорожской атомной электростанции (ЗАЭС).

Ракетно-артиллерийским ударам подвергается критически важная инфраструктура ЗАЭС, нарушение ядерной и физической безопасности которой грозит масштабной катастрофой в центре Европейского континента. Последствия безрассудных действий Киева, отдающего приказы об обстрелах ЗАЭС, могут стать поистине ужасающими.

На территории Российской Федерации украинские диверсанты подрывают линии электропередач, ведущие к Курской АЭС.

Ряд крупных аварий на АЭС, очевидным образом, ничему не научили Киев и его натовских покровителей. Русофобская идеология перевешивает принципы ядерной безопасности.

Только благодаря самоотверженности российских военнослужащих, выполняющих свой долг в рамках специальной военной операции на Украине, до настоящего времени удается обеспечивать необходимую защиту основных объектов ЗАЭС и близлежащего города Энергодара.

Террористические по своей сути нападения на ЗАЭС являются нарушениями международного гуманитарного права, что влечет ответственность причастных государств и политиков, которые отдают преступные приказы и их исполняют.

Россия постоянно поднимает в Совете Безопасности ООН вопрос о недопустимости ударов по ЗАЭС со стороны Украины. Приводит неопровержимые доказательства преступлений киевского режима. Призывает страны, влияющие на Киев, принудить украинскую сторону к немедленному прекращению обстрелов.

Соучастниками и пособниками преступлений становятся страны Запада, снабжающие Украину все более тяжелыми видами вооружения. Попустительствуя варварским атакам на ЗАЭС, спонсоры Киева ставят под угрозу народы своих стран, что безответственно и недопустимо.

Совет Государственной Думы, в состав которого входят в том числе руководители фракций всех представленных в Государственной Думе политических партий, призывает ООН и МАГАТЭ, а также национальные парламенты, межпарламентские организации и органы:

-  дать принципиальную оценку преступным действиям Киева;

- потребовать от властей Украины немедленного прекращения обстрелов ЗАЭС и других объектов, разрушение которых несет опасность радиоактивного, химического и биологического заражения и техногенной катастрофы.

Cовет Государственной Думы требует прекратить поставки на Украину вооружений, которыми антинародный киевский режим убивает и калечит людей, создает риск возникновения ядерной катастрофы.

Обращаемся к гражданам Украины с просьбой осознать страшные последствия преступной и провокационной политики киевского режима.

Совет Государственной Думы подтверждает готовность российской стороны сделать все необходимое для организации международной миссии МАГАТЭ на ЗАЭС с тем, чтобы специалисты агентства могли на месте засвидетельствовать наличие угроз, создаваемых в результате постоянных украинских атак на атомную электростанцию, чреватых трагическими последствиями для всего человечества.

 

Москва, 25 августа 2022 года

2. AFU again shelled the ZNPP

What are the reasons behind such statement issued by the Council of the Russian State Duma?

The Russian Ministry of Defense said Ukrainian forces have inflicted several strikes on the territory of the station in recent days, using, in particular, drones, heavy artillery and multiple launch rocket systems. In most cases, the attacks are repelled by air defense systems, but some shells hit the infrastructure and the area of the nuclear waste repository, which raises the risk of radiation leaks. Another method is to destroy Kakhovskaya Hydropower Station and to leave ZNPP without water used as a cooler. Such HPS has been attacked by Armed forces of Ukraine or AFU several times in July and August 2022.

In the Zaporozhye Region, nearly 30 shellings per day were made by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, of which on August 23, 17 strikes were aimed at ZNPP, the head of the military and civil Administration there reported.

Security systems have been activated at the plant after a power outage, which temporarily left the facility without electricity, members of the Administration in the Ukrainian region have claimed.

The plant has since been connected to an alternative source of power, according to officials. The blackout is said to have been caused by massive wildfires in the area, which were started by Ukrainian shelling, theу said.

Fires, which have engulfed parts of the steppe and woods surrounding the city of Energodar, led to short-circuits in the local grid, leaving not only parts of Zaporozhye Region without power, but also the neighboring Kherson Region.

The head of the military-civil Administration of Energodar, Yevgeny Balitski, has been quoted by media as saying: “According to preliminary information, because of massive shelling by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which has continued since last night, fields and undergrowth caught fire. This led to a short-circuit in the grid.” He added that two power units were turned off, after which the Zaporozhye Region was left without power supply.

In addition, 19 shells of the US-made HIMARS MLRS have been intercepted near Kakhovskaya HPP, Kherson and Donetsk cities.

Two workers at the Zaporozhye facility have been providing information to AFU, the Russian National Guard protecting ZNPP with assault rifles has claimed.

Russian forces have detained two employees of the ZNPP, who have been providing information on troops and hardware locations to Kiev’s forces, the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardiya) said on August 24.

“Apart from that, a violator of access control [to the plant], an accomplice of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who transmitted the coordinates of the movement of columns of Russian military hardware, has been detained,” they added.

After seizing security control of the power station on March 4, 2022, Russian forces have detained 26 violators of access control to the plant – the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, the National Guard revealed.

It noted that “Specialists of the nuclear, biological and chemical defense of the National Guard, together with colleagues from the Ministry of Defense, daily, several times a day, monitor the situation by measuring radiation levels at control points along the perimeter of the facility.”

Earlier, the Ukrainian company Energoatom – the ZNPP’s operator – claimed that for the first time in nearly 40 years ever it had been completely disconnected from the power grid.

On August 23, the media resource Zaporozhsky Vestnik said electricity supply for Melitopol, Energodar and a number of other localities of the Zaporozhye Region had been disrupted due to the Ukrainian army’s shelling of Energodar. A field near Energodar reportedly caught fire, which caused a short circuit at a substation.

In recent weeks, the ZNPP and nearby city of Energodar have been repeatedly shelled by Ukrainian Armed Forces. The attacks damaged multiple buildings on the premises of the plant, causing fires and power outages, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.

The daily list of recent Ukrainian attacks has been made public on August 23, 2022 (the USA space satellites could verify all these cases):

 

  • on August 11, the Armed Forces of Ukraine fired at the ZNPP with 152 mm guns, damaging equipment for cooling the reactors;
  • on August 14, Ukrainian artillery shelled the ZNPP using M777 howitzers supplied by the United States, and also used two guided munitions; a man was killed in Energodar due to shelling, and another was injured;
  • on August 15, the Armed Forces of Ukraine fired 30 shells from 152 mm guns at this city;
  • on August 17, Ukrainian troops fired 11 shells and launched a Polish-made kamikaze drone, inflicted three strikes at Energodar;
  • on August 18, the city was fired upon by heavy artillery seven times;
  • on August 20, the Armed Forces of Ukraine once again opened fire on the territory of ZNPP from howitzers transferred by the United States;
  • on August 22, a drone of the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the laboratory building No. 2 at the ZNPP;
  • In the past 24 hours, ZNPP has been shelled twice by Ukrainian troops with large-calibre artillery guns. As a result of the shelling, four munitions exploded near oxygen and nitrogen station, and another one in the area of the special building No. 1. AFU artillery position from which the territory of the nuclear power plant was shelled has been detected to the west of the city of Marganets located in Dnepropetrovsk Region, controlled by AFU. During last day, Ukrainian artillery have launched seven large-calibre artillery strikes against NPP area.The shelling was carried out from Ukrainian troops' firing positions near Nikopol', Marganets, Vyshetarasovka and Chervonogrigorovka, located on the opposite bank of Kakhovka reservoir.

A straight-forward question:

In this atmosphere president Zelensky insisted that Russia

should completely withdraw its National Guard from the station.

But why Zelensky does not want to stop shelling ZNPP continuously by heavy artillery and MLRS?


It should be noted that The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists frequently publishes faked stories about ZNPP and camouflage all facts dealt Ukrainian attacks on it.

Recently it offered the readers the interview with Oleh Savitskyi [by Jessica McKenzie, August 19, 2022], a board member of the non-governmental organization Ecoaction and a climate and energy policy ‘expert’ (?) with the Ukrainian Climate who disseminated fairy tales about ZNPP and protected Kiev’s nuclear terrorism who constantly is shelling the plant just for four real purposes: 1) to blame Russia for what it does not do (shelling of ZNPP); 2) to disguise its blackmailing efforts its own attacks on ZNPP; 3) to get more money and deadly offensive weapons from the West; and 4) to intimidate the world community with nuclear disaster at ZNPP after getting a free hand to manipulate with its reactors after Russian National Guard would supposedly leave the territory of the plant, thus wishing to repeat the Chernobyl NPP disaster in 1986.

Oleh Savitskyi also claimed that Russia “kidnapped hundreds of people” (?). Where? What are their names? He did not name any. And will never do. Because it is a lie. There are no complains of ’kidnapping’ from all ethnic Ukrainians and Russians who have already moved into Russia after Ukrainian atrocities that started since 2014.


Dear Editor-in Chief of The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: will you check the “information” supplied to you by Ukrainian ‘experts’ before you publish their utter lies concerning security issues related to NPP?


3. Protesters in Moscow called out West over Ukraine’s use of APM on civilians

Demonstrations against the use of air-dropped anti-personnel mines or APM were held in Moscow on August 24 near the Embassies of the USA and France in Moscow to protest the use of scatterable APM by NATO-backed Ukraine.

The protesters taped images of the mines to the sidewalk around the Embassies. The stickers featured a QR code leading to a website explaining what the PFM-1 mines are and accusing Ukraine of dropping them on Donbass cities.

Kiev’s aim is evident: to make more civilians in Donbass crippled or dead.

By now Armed Forces of Ukraine dispersed more than 19,000 such mines in Donbass. 47 civilians, including two kids have been injured, one man died.

Ukraine has large stockpiles of different types of mine, including an estimated six million PFM-1 mines as of 2011. The country was supposed to dispose of its stocks of the mine to comply with its ligations, but refused.

Thus, Ukraine violates the Ottawa Convention on banning APM. Kiev has signed and ratified it.

 

 

 


FOOD FOR THOUGHT:

"Many people are suffering, really suffering today but their predicament did not begin just recently, it has been going on for eight years. A lot of people in Donbass were utterly frustrated because of the strongest pressure they were facing. And where justice is broken, resistance always arises, so this is how this eight-year-long process led to a significant escalation."

 

Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All-Russia

 at a meeting of the Holy Synod of the Russian Orthodox Church on August 24, 2022


4. Russian ex-president envisions military junta in Kiev

A coup is the only alternative to a civilian government accepting Russia’s terms for peace, former Russian president and now deputy chair of the Russian National Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev said.

He outlined the scenario as one of two options that he believes to be viable for Ukraine. The other was if the government of President Vladimir Zelensky changed its tune and agreed to Russia’s terms for ending hostilities. Either way, Russia will get what it wants from Ukraine, the official stressed.

 

5. Who spends more? And what for?

The USA spends more money on the Armed Forces of Ukraine than Ukraine itself. Since January 2021, Washington has provided Ukraine with military aid roughly three times its annual defense budget, a White House spokeswoman said.

6. Ukraine’s anti-Russian statement at the UNO was backed by less than a third of its members

Of the 193 states, only 58 agree with the position of Kiev. These are European countries, the USA, Great Britain, Georgia, Turkey, Switzerland, as well as several countries in Asia and Latin America.

The statement unjustifiably criticized Russia’s actions and called on it to immediately stop combat operations.


A comment:

A rather strange formula – “to immediately stop combat operations”.

Why the UNO has not demanded to stop the third Ukrainian aggression versus Donbass waged since 2014 till 2022, nuclear terrorism against nuclear power plants, etc.? Why the UNO has not demanded to immediately stop third Ukrainian aggression against Donbass where 13,000 were killed and 34,000 civilians injured by AFU?


7. Russian Armed Forces will soon increase its military personnel

The Russian president signs a decree on adding more troops to the Armed Forces. The document, published on the Government’s website, adds 137,000 men to the ranks of the Armed Forces from January 1, 2023 bringing the total quantity to 1,150628 military men. The previous figure fixed by the law in November 2017 was 1,013628 military men.

By that time the overall strength of the RAF will be 2,039758 persons (military men plus 889,139 civilians working in the Armed Forces included).

Some Russian analysts suggest that such move is not only dealt with the third Ukrainian aggression and genocide versus Donbass (they are is still continued), but with additional potential NATO enlargement in Northern Europe that might happen in 2022.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 133. Kiev still shells ZNPP on the eve of the IAEA visit. To cancel it again?

August, 27, 2022

 1. Ukraine still adheres to “nuclear terrorism”

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has stated that the Kiev regime continued to engage in "nuclear terrorism” by targeting the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), firing long-range artillery projectiles at the territory of the facility located in the heart of Europe.

Unfortunately, such dangerous and barbaric actions

are still continued by president Zelensky without any interruption despite the debates devoted to the issue at two emergency meetings at the UN Security Council meetings held on August 11 and 23, 2022 [see previous Reports for additional details].

“Over the last 24 hours, artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have shelled the territory of the ZNPP three times. A total of 17 shells were fired, four of which hit the roof of special building No. 1, where 168 assemblies with American nuclear fuel from the Westinghouse [Electric Corporation] company are stored,” the Russian MoD said.

The Ministry added that “another 10 shells exploded 30 meters away from the dry storage of spent nuclear fuel, and three more projectiles detonated in the area of special building No. 2, which houses the fresh nuclear fuel storage unit of the TVEL nuclear fuel company and the storage of solid radioactive waste.

The Russian MoD also noted that Ukrainian sheeling was arranged again from the city of Marganets, located in Dnepropetrovsk Region, still controlled by the ultra-Nazi regimes entrenched in Kiev.

 One U.S. howitzer М777 that fired at ZNPP was destroyed by Russian troops there.

The local authorities reported that in the morning on Saturday August 27 Ukrainian troops had launched 20 artillery strikes on the city of Energodar, including five on the ZNPP's territory directly.

At the same time monitoring of the technical condition of the ZNPP and ensuring its functioning is carried out by regular technical personnel. The Russian special military formation protects the external perimeter of the nuclear plant. There are no heavy weapons in the area of the NPP”, the Russian MoD said.

2. Does the USA see any profits in arming Ukraine?

On August 7, a documentary film entitled “Arming Ukraine” was presented at the Internet resource of the American TV channel CBS. In a few hours, the picture gained over 250 thousand viewers. Several thousand viewers left their comments. Many were outraged by the information about the disappearance of up to 70 percent of the weapons sent to Kiev, purchased by the current U.S. administration at the expense of taxpayers. The audience reacted with indignation watching the video in which a cache of Western weapons is located in a Ukrainian residential building, which is a violation of the rules of war and explains the facts of attacks on city blocks, which are presented by the Kiev regime as evidence of alleged Moscow’s “cruelty”. Many comments stressed the need to organize reliable control over arms supplies to Ukraine from the Western countries nowadays totaling nearly 50, including 30 members of NATO.

The film reminded the Americans of the circumstances of the urgent flight of the U.S. military contingent from Afghanistan, when weapons worth $ 80 billion fell into the hands of the Taliban Islamic movement. As a result, modern types of weapons, intelligence and communications equipment are used by militants in India and Pakistan. Today, the danger is potential import of “Ukrainian weapons and military equipment” to carry out terrorist attacks in American cities.

The footage drew criticism from the White House. The Biden administration’s policy of providing military-technical aid to “one of the most corrupt countries in the world” is called as short-sighted and unnecessarily wasteful of money from the U.S. federal budget.

Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, member of the House of Representatives (Republican, Georgia) noted that the content presented in the film fully confirms the correctness of her position on the inexpediency of providing military-technical assistance to Kiev [some U.S. weapons taken in Ukraine have been exhibited near Moscow in August 2022 at the International Forum “Army-2022”; see photo on the right].

Suggesting how Russia and Ukraine can reach a peace deal and end their six-month conflict, the divisive lawmaker said she was opposed to the U.S. funding a “proxy war” in Ukraine. “I am completely against funding this proxy war with nuclear Russia and Ukraine. I think we should be caring about our country. Of course, no one supports what happens there, everybody feels sorry for the Ukrainian people and all that, but you know what, our country matters, so to me, I’m not concerned at all about Ukraine. I’m concerned about America,” she underscored.

In her words, the proxy war there needs to end, and the USA does not need to be funding war over there. She claimed that the USA does not want a war with Russia, and nobody else does except the military industrial complex here in the USA

Congresswoman Lauren Opal Boebert (Republican, Colorado) criticized Washington’s intention to increase the scale of support for Ukraine in conditions when a significant part of the weapons sent by the West to Kiev do not reach the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the battlefield.

Probably, in connection with the initiated wave of criticism against the current U.S. administration, on the same day the video materials were removed from the Internet resource. Unfounded accusations of spreading false information and “pro-Russian orientation” and the staged nature of the film have been aimed at the CBS TV network.

The film confirmed the loss in Ukraine of a significant part of the weapons supplied by the West, served as another link in the chain of growing negative reaction in American society regarding the intentions of the Joseph Biden administration to continue providing military-technical assistance to Kiev without any interruptions.

What is the reaction of some U.S. officials?

The USA spends more money on the Armed Forces of Ukraine than Ukraine itself. Since January 2021, Washington has provided Ukraine with military aid roughly three times its annual defense budget, a White House spokeswoman said.

The Pentagon’s acting Inspector General Sean O’Donnell told Bloomberg on August 25 that his office will test the effectiveness of the system that tracks U.S. weapons shipped to Ukraine as part of the Defense Department’s multi-billion dollar military assistance program [see photo below: the U.S. M777 howitzer captured in Ukraine at the International Forum “Army-2022”].

“As far as we can tell, right now, everything that is supposed to shoot and go boom, they are using every bit of it,” the official said, adding that the system needs to be double-checked as the Ukrainians use “hand receipts” to trace supplied arms. “I don’t think they have much fidelity” as to where it ends up, O’Donnell noted.

The Inspector General office will be looking into the weapons shipments to ensure that they are not being diverted to the black market, according to the report. Concerns over such risks have been voiced by various European and international law enforcement agencies, following evidence that at least some easier-to-smuggle Western arms have ended up in the hands of gunrunners offering them to clients online.

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan earlier voiced concerns that supplying Ukraine with ATACMS missiles could escalate the conflict and lead to a world war. ATACMS or MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System is a larger tactical-level ballistic missile that can travel up to 300km.

Washington is not supplying Kiev with longer-range ATACMS missiles at present because most Russian targets are within range of other weapons, a senior Pentagon official has explained. The assessment was made by U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl as he briefed the media on military assistance being provided to Ukraine. Kahl said the reason for not sending them was purely military and based on the reports that Ukraine provides to the USA.

It has been announced recently in Washington that the White House has ordered to send one more “basket” of lethal arms to be delivered to failed Kiev regime that should be replaced a long time ago for war crimes, inefficiency and nuclear blackmail. It is 20th such “basket” for $ 2.98 billion since February 24, 2022.

The package, which marks the single largest tranche since Russia launched SMO in Ukraine six months ago to defend civilians in Donbass, includes six more of the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems with additional ammunition, up to 245,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition; 65,000 rounds of 120mm mortar ammunition; up to 24 counter-artillery radars; and unnamed laser-guided rocket systems. The USA plans to send the M982 Excalibur, which is a laser-guided projectile made by Raytheon.

The 19th package announced just two weeks ago for $775 million, included new drones, armored vehicles and artillery also used to damage ZNPP.

These two August packages are as part of the $40 billion in security and economic aid passed by Congress and signed into law by Biden in May, 2022.

The shipments indicated that Washington and Kiev expect hard fighting on the ground in the coming weeks or months. Obviously, with the strategic goal: to worsen European and global military and political situation.


But does the USA actually get any profits by arming Ukraine?

No, there are only negative results.

There is no end in shelling civilians in Donbass with heavy weapons.

There are no reductions in Ukrainian human losses.

 There are no official talks between Kiev and Moscow on substantial issues.

There is no Kiev’s refusal to stop nuclear blackmail by shelling ZNPP.

There is no security in Europe and in the world at large.

There are no normal and stable economy in Europe and the USA.


 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 134. AFU major disaster in the South. Kiev prevents the IAEA team to visit ZNPP by extra shelling

August 31, 2022

1. Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) suffered heavy losses

As a result of the defeat of the Ukrainian offensive on Zelensky's personal orders in Nikolaev-Krivoi Rog and other directions, AFU suffered heavy losses for a very short time – for the first time. Ukrainian 524 “major offensive” widely advertised by Ukrainian and Western mass media has vanished in the haze.

During the last two days of unsuccessful attacks in the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog and other directions,


Russian forces destroyed:

63 Ukrainian tanks,

59 infantry fighting vehicles,

48 other armored fighting vehicles,

14 pickup trucks with large-caliber machine guns,

And over 1,700 Ukrainian GIs.


Ukrainian troops also lost four combat aircraft: two Su-25s, one Su-24 and one MiG-29. Three Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopters were shot down in the air. During repel of the enemy offensive the Russian troops have defeated units of 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade of AFU redeployed from western Ukraine.

Just in two days …

The leaders of the USA, the UK, Canada, FRG, etc: don’t you wish to stop the third aggression launched by Kiev against Donbass and against other areas in Ukraine dreaming for living outside neo-Nazi Ukraine? Don’t you understand that your blood money will never help the butcher-in-Kiev?

Reality for you: since February 24, 2022 Kiev has not liberated any of its territory.

 

2. Developments on the other fronts (if you have not time to read it full, just see the latest data in the box below)

High-precision ground-based weapons near Aleksandrovka, Dnepropetrovsk Region, have hit a temporary deployment point and an ammunition depot of 1st Tank Brigade of AFU. More than 200 fighters, including about 40 foreign mercenaries, more than 20 armoured vehicles and a large quantity of artillery shells have been destroyed.

Concentrated strikes have been carried out near Konstantinovka in Donetsk People's Republic against a temporary mercenary position of Foreign Legion formation as well as a command post of Kraken nationalist formation.  The strikes have resulted in the destruction of over 100 militants and 7 units of military equipment.

In Krivoi Rog city in Dnepropetrovsk Region, Russian Aerospace Forces precision weapons have destroyed the production shops of the Intervzryvprom plant where explosives and other products for the Ukrainian Armed Forces were being manufactured.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery strikes continue against military facilities in Ukraine. 5 command posts have been hit, including those of 108th and 65th Mechanized Brigades near Vodyanoye in Donetsk People's Republic and Veselyanka in Zaporozhye Region, 35th and 36th brigades of AFU Marines near Nikolaev, a nationalist formation in Kharkov city, and 52 artillery units, 142 areas of manpower and and military equipment concentration.

3 missile and artillery ammunition depots near Sarny in Rovnenskyi Region, Krivoi Rog in Dnepropetrovsk Region and Vernopol'e in Kharkov Region have been destroyed.

Russian air defence means have shot down 2 Su-25 airplane of Ukrainian air force near Krasnoye Znamya, Nikolaev Region.

 5 UAVs have been also shot down near Valeriyanovka in Donetsk People's Republic, Chubarevka in Zaporozhye Region, Kapitolovka, Izyum and Krasnoye in Kharkov Region. In addition, 3 Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missiles, as well as 53 shells of multiple rocket launchers have been intercepted near Kherson, Novaya Kakhovka in Kherson Region, Antonivskyi Bridge and Kakhovskaya HPP. Including: 44 of HIMARS, 5 of Olkha and 4 of Uragan.


From February 2022, in total, 278 Ukrainian airplanes and 148 helicopters, 1,837 unmanned aerial vehicles, 370 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,539 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 822 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,357 field artillery and mortars, as well as 5,136 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation


3. Kiev regime continues shelling ZNPP on the eve of the IAEA team visit

Ukraine continues to arrange a man-made nuclear disaster at Zaporozhye NPP (ZNPP), thus blocking the visit of the IAEA inspectors to that place:

On August 29, Ukrainian troops used 4 Polish-made strike kamikadze drones at the plant. All the drones were intercepted by Russian means. One of the drones fell on the roof of Special Building No 1, which stores US-made nuclear fuel and solid radioactive waste. Damage and casualties were avoided.

On August 30, Ukrainian artillery fired 2 shells into the territory of the nuclear power plant, which exploded near Special Building No 1.

On August 31, several hours before the IAEA inspection team’s arrival to ZNPP was expected to reach ZNPP, Zelensky’s troops have shelled more by 60 missiles and artillery ammunition. Several shells hit depot of fresh nuclear fuel.

Цель визита миссии МАГАТЭ на Запорожскую АЭС – предотвращение ядерной аварииAll Ukrainian attacks came from artillery positions of AFU near Marganets, Dnepropetrovsk Region. Russian Armed Forces artillery return fire have suppressed enemy firepower.

Kiev intentionally shelled ZNPP several hours before the UN SC meeting was convened on August 23, and soon after it was closed.

The same story repeats today.

And the U.S. State Department says that it does not know who is responsible for such shelling of the biggest NPP in Europe (?)

Incredible unprofessionalism. That’s on one hand.

On the other – it is covering up a war criminal and nuclear blackmailer – Zelensky. Still:WANTED”.

Like in a U.S. publicly posted police announcement.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Report # 138. Chain of Ukrainian provocations vs ZNPP continues. Who will stop such nuclear terrorism?

September, 5 , 2022

 

1. Kiev continues nuclear terrorism. It has a specific blackmail scheme

Despite the presence of IAEA representatives at Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, Kiev regime continues provocations aimed at posing a threat to create a technological disaster at ZNPP.

Chinese experts expose Zelensky's plans for ZNPPWhile Kiev regime and its western sponsors were preparing an operation aimed at capturing Zaporozhye nuclear power plant on September 1, the international community had to be informed about the establishment of Kiev's control over the plant by specially selected and prepared 'mass media representatives' from Ukraine, USA and United Kingdom in presence of the mission from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

With this purpose, as it was confirmed on September 2 in the public statement by Zelensky, Kiev regime added extra motor cars with Ukrainian and Western journalists on board to the convoy of IAEA without prior arrangement with anybody. The attempt to carry out this provocation was made by Kiev in disregard of mission's working scenario documentally predetermined by IAEA Secretariat and UN Department for Safety and Security.

According to thoroughly studied and agreed documents, the access to the territory of ZNPP was to be provided only pursuant to the lists previously presented by Russian MoD to UN Department for Safety and Security. There are no representatives of Ukrainian or other mass media tasked to accompany IAEA's convoy on September 1 from Kiev-controlled territory to ZNPP in the agreed lists. Zelensky blocked any participation of Ukrainian journalists in the reporting to the IAEA visit to ZNPP.

Despite that order, some persons disguised as “newsmen” wanted to visit ZNPP with specific aims. Considering this fact, in order to implement the security arrangements for IAEA mission's work, all unauthorised “journalists” were stopped and did not get access to cross the delimitation line together with IAEA's convoy.


At the same time, on request of IAEA Secretariat, Russian side has provided the arrival of over 60 representatives of mass media, including from France, the USA, the PRC, Denmark, Japan, Germany, Turkey, Qatar, UAE, RoK, Vietnam and other countries to cover the mission's work


It has been established that the group of faked “newsmen” without IDs or with faked IDs was tasked to immediately report to the world that ZNPP has been captured by AFU in the presence of the IAEA and declared as “a DMZ”. After that with a free hand in its activity at this plant Kiev could have implemented any wrong-doing with the facility, even melt down any nuclear reactor or several reactors and blackmail any nation by enhanced radiation.  The next step would have been to demand from Russia to sign “a treaty” specifying provisions totally favorable to Kiev.

In the morning on September 1, the group of bona fide journalists that arrived in Energodar city where ZNPP is located witnessed the unsuccessful attempt to assault ZNPP by Ukrainian saboteurs and by heavy artillery shelling launched by AFU at Zaporozhye nuclear power plant and residential areas of Energodar exactly from Nikopol and Marganetz controlled by Zelensky.

After so many attacks made by Ukrainian military only one reactor is operating at the plant – and not at full capacity

"Today, as a result of a fire caused by shelling, the (last working) transmission line was disconnected," Energoatom, Ukraine's state nuclear power company, incorrectly announced in a statement on Telegram on September 5, without mentioning who was responsible for such act, but at the same preferred not to point at Moscow only as it usually did.


Comment: It is quite exceptional case for a Ukrainian side that always has been blaming Russia for shelling ZNPP with Ukrainian and American projectiles from “nowhere land”


[see  Reuters report: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/last-reactor-unit-ukraine-nuclear-plant-disconnects-after-shelling-energoatom-2022-09-05/].

According to the IAEA, two members of the International Atomic Energy Agency mission have been left at the plant as observers. The other group of inspectors left ZNPP on September 5 at 9:00 AM.  Rafael Grossi, DG of the IAEA, left the area earlier

 The reasons why Kiev still shells ZNPP have been disclosed by Petro Kotin, head of the during an interview with Reuters September 5, 2022 that it was vital that a mission by a UN inspectors’ team to the plant should lead to the end of Russia's “occupation of the facility” and called for new missions to the site, including by UN peacekeepers

The only way to ensure the safety of the ZNPP is the withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory, echoed his words French President Emmanuel Macron who does not understand the real situation in and around the plant, and stubbornly wishing to protect Zelensky’s nuclear terrorism by shelling the facility every day.

But Kotin and Macron should know that as it stands for September 5, under Zelensky’s orders, since July 18 Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) attacked ZNPP:

  • 32 times,
  • by 124 artillery shells,
  • by 26 kamikaze drones with HE,
  • and conducted two major sabotage attempts in order to capture the plant.

For this reason Russia has a legitimate right to increase its troops at ZNPP. Otherwise, it would be too late to react.

2. The latest chronology of Kiev’s ZNPP shelling

On September 3, AFU used 8 unmanned aerial vehicles armed with outboard projectiles for launching attacks at the plant. They have been diverted from the plant by ECM and forced to “land” in an unpopulated area where they were destroyed.

On September 4, Ukrainian troops used an attack drone, which was destroyed by Russian ECM, on the territory of the nuclear power plant. It fell one kilometer from the plant's territory. Nothing was harmed.

On September 5, AFU again attacked ZNPP with three artillery shells and one drone with a bomb on board. The impact was on the special building, the communication ceiling, a water tank near reactor # 2, and the concrete fence of ZNPP.

All these cases can be easily verified by the U.S. and NATO satellites and by other means, e.g. by Western and Ukrainian projectiles’ remnants and fragments collected on spot at ZNPP since July 18 till now.

Totally more than 20,000 residents in Energodar signed a petition demanding from Kiev to stop destruction of ZNPP.

3. Ukrainian “counteroffensive”. No positive gains

Kiev regime continues its unsuccessful attempts to consolidate at several areas towards Nikolayev-Krivoy Rog direction. Aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces, missile troops and artillery launch attacks at the units and reserve forces of tAFU.

The enemy has lost 11 tanks, 17 infantry combat vehicles, including 4 U.S.-manufactured Bradley vehicles, 10 other ACVs, 5 pick-ups with large-calibre machine guns and over 150 servicemen at the abovementioned direction.

Fighter aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces have shot down Su-25 assault fighter of Ukrainian Air Force near Romanovka (Nikolayev Region).

4. Situation on the other battlefields

“Over the past day, the mission reported 40 facts of firing by the armed formations of Ukraine. In the Donetsk direction, the enemy used MLRS “Hurricane”, “Grad”, artillery 155, 152 and 122 mm. On Gorlovsky – MLRS “Grad”, artillery 155, 152 and 122 mm, tank and mortars 120 mm fire by releasing 199 units of various ammunition”, the DPR official representative said.

High-precision armament of Russian Aerospace Forces has eliminated provisional bases of the units from 80th Air Assault Brigade and a munitions depot near Kramatorsk (Donetsk People's Republic). Over 120 Ukrainian servicemen and 11 armoured and special motor vehicles have been eliminated.

Concentrated fire attacks launched at the positions of the units from 30th Mechanised and 95 Air Assault Brigades near Gusarovka (Kharkov Region) and Adamovka (Donetsk People's Republic) have resulted in the elimination of 110 militants. AFU command is manning the abovementioned formations with mobilised citizens from western and central regions of Ukraine, including women.

High-precision attack of Russian Aerospace Forces launched at 2 bases of foreign mercenaries near Kurakhovo (DPR) resulted in the elimination of 50 foreign militants.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery continue launching attacks at the military facilities in Ukraine.

Over the past 24 hours, 4 command posts, including: the headquarters of Kraken nationalist group near Kharkov, 66th Mechanised Brigade near Yelizavetovka (Donetsk People's Republic), 65th Mechanised Brigade near Nikolskoye (Zaporozhye Region), as well as 57 artillery units, 189 AFU manpower and military equipment concentration areas have been neutralised. Three munitions depots near Seversk (Donetsk People's Republic), Nikolskoye and Malinovka (Zaporozhye region) have been destroyed. Russian air defence means have shot down 5 unmanned aerial vehicles near Balakleya, Pershotravnevoye (Kharkov region), Zvitne Bazhannya, Ivanovka and Zelyony Gai (Donetsk People's Republic).

Three U.S.-made HARM anti-radar missiles have been intercepted near Novaya Kakhovka (Kherson Region), as well as 7 MRLS projectiles near Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, including 4 HIMARS and 3 Olkha.

In total, 289 airplanes and 151 helicopters, 1,872 unmanned aerial vehicles, 372 air defence missile systems, 4,804 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 824 combat vehicles equipped with multiple rocket-launching systems, 3,367 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 5,276 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the Special Military Operation.

5.  Russian aims have not changed

Addressing the meeting in the Far East on September 5 Russian President Vladimir Putin has laid responsibility for the tragedy in Donbass on the Ukrainian "neo-Nazi regime", as well as stressing that all of Moscow's attempts to resolve the issue peacefully have failed. Russia launched the SMO in Ukraine on February 24 following a request from the two Donbass republics to protect them against barbaric attacks of Ukrainian forces. The operation came after Kiev failed to implement the Minsk agreements on Donbass reintegration over the course of eight years.

"This [tragedy] is the result of the actions of the nationalist, neo-Nazi regime, which seized power [in Ukraine] by force in 2014 and then launched hostilities in Donbass. It conducted two major military operations [in Donbass] using artillery, aviation, heavy equipment, and so on. And this is what is still happening there," Putin said.

The president stated that it was Russia's obligation to help the people of Donbass, who, he said, were bravely defending their land at times better than professional military.

Putin described Kiev's actions in Donbass as "genocide".


Russia is committed to defend civilians in Donbass and in other areas in Ukraine from neo-Nazi invaders who are still conducting the 3rd large-scale aggression since 2014


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 139. Disbalanced and biased IAEA Report on ZNPP

September 8, 2022

1. The latest IAEA Report has some setbacks

The IAEA released its Report on its inspection visit to Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant or ZNPP urging to create a safety zone [here and later “Zaporozhye” has Russian spelling]. IAEA inspectors registered many damages inflicted by Forces of Ukraine or AFU at the ZNPP, and called to resort to measures of preventing a nuclear disaster at the facility.

The Report contains 52 pages and 175 paragraphs. It was made public on September 6, 2022.

"Since April, a considerable number of events at the ZNPP have significantly compromised the Seven Pillars," the statement reads adding that a team of IAEA experts "closely witnessed shelling in the vicinity of the ZNPP…, the team observed damage at different locations caused by reported events with some of the damage being close to the reactor buildings."

 

Note: Seven Pillars included:

1) the physical integrity of the facilities — whether it is the reactors, fuel ponds or radioactive waste stores — must be maintained;

2) all safety and security systems and equipment must be fully functional at all times;

3) the operating staff must be able to fulfil their safety and security duties and have the capacity to make decisions free of undue pressure;

4). there must be secure off-site power supply from the grid for all nuclear sites;

5) there must be uninterrupted logistical supply chains and transportation to and from the sites;

6) there must be effective on-site and off-site radiation monitoring systems and emergency preparedness and response measures;

7) there must be reliable communications with the regulator and others.

The IAEA urged to immediately set up ‘a nuclear safety and security protection zone around the ZNPP" or NSSPZ. The agency stated its readiness to immediately launch consultations on this issue because such step will help to prevent a nuclear incident that may be possibly provoked by  military actions.

"Pending the end of the conflict and re-establishment of stable conditions there is an urgent need for interim measures to prevent a nuclear accident arising from physical damage caused by military means. This can be achieved by the immediate establishment of a nuclear safety and security protection zone."  The Report, however, failed to specify in what way NSSPZ around the pklantwill be arranged if Russian National Guards maintain such security.

 


The plant does not need additional aid from outside sources, especially from Ukraine who has shelled it nearly 40 times and used more than 150 projectiles totally since July 18, 2022.


The agency also recommended it was necessary to re-establish a reserve power supply to the ZNPP, required for the operation of its cooling systems as well as at the other stations. "The IAEA recommends that the off-site power supply line redundancy as designed should be re-established and available at any time, and that all military activities that may affect the power supply systems end." AFU tried to hit the plant power supply systems several times.

It is strange to see the call made by the IAEA DG Rafael Grossi incorporated in the IAEA Report to remove special Russian trucks located at the ZNPP that belong to Nuclear, Biological, Chemical and Radiological Defence troops of the Russian Federation. The IAEA recommendation was very strange: such vehicles having no weapons are more dangerous that all Ukrainian attacks on ZNPP. Naturally, they should stay there.

It is also irrelevant that all Ukrainian shellings against the facility have been recorded in the IAEA Report as if they have been done by Russia. There are no material evidence or space-based satellite images that could prove that Russia attacked the plant.


That is why the Report is not balanced. Without criticizing Ukraine for a nuclear terror the Report encourages Kiev to continue its nuclear blackmail


2. Kiev disregards the IAEA and the UNO call to stop shelling ZNPP

In its Report the IAEA recommended: "That shelling on site and in its vicinity should be stopped immediately to avoid any further damages to the plant and associated facilities, for the safety of the operating staff and to maintain the physical integrity to support safe and secure operation”.

 

 


Despite such recommendation Kiev regime continues its shelling of ZNPP aimed at creating a possible technological disaster and with such measure to win the aggression.

15 artillery attacks launched at the city of Energodar and ZNPP by AFU have been recorded over the past 24 hours. Ukrainian artillery has launched a total of 20 projectiles, including three of them directly at the nuclear power plant.


One of the projectiles has impacted the roof of the special building №1, the second has impacted the area between the special building №1 and the second power generator, the third has exploded near the tankers designed for storing distilled water near the power plant № 2.

The fire was being conducted from Ukrainian positions deployed near Marganets (Dnepropetrovsk Region). AFU units have been neutralised by a counter-attack launched by Russian artillery located too far away from ZNPP.

3. Izvestia: The IAEA’s proposal to resolve ZNPP dilemma

The creation of a nuclear security zone around ZNPP is needed, according to one of the key recommendations that the IAEA made public after its visit to the facility. Previously, Ukraine, supported by Western countries and the UN Secretariat, also proposed forming a demilitarized zone. Russia completely rejected this idea since, in its opinion, international control over the nuclear plant would mean practically giving the facility up to the Ukrainians and creating additional risks. That said, Russia notes that the IAEA’s recommendations are vague and general.

"The report by the IAEA group of experts is of a rather general and non-specific nature - the entire wording is very vague," Chairman of the Federation Council’s (Upper House or Senate in short) Foreign Affairs Committee Grigory Karasin told Izvestia. He added that these conclusions shouldn’t be dismissed and should be discussed in greater detail both within the framework of the IAEA and the UN in order to prevent a catastrophe at the nuclear facility and ensure a restraint from the Ukrainians.

4. The Kremlin: Russia provides aid to LPR and DPR based on the UN Charter

Russia is providing aid to the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR) in full compliance with the UN Charter, Russian President Vladimir Putin said when answering questions at a plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) on September 7 in Vladivostock, Russian Far East.

"We are doing this [providing aid – TASS]. Does this comply with the UN Charter? It does. There is Article 51 of the UN Charter which mentions self-defense. And we, as a party to this agreement, are obligated under this clause, under this UN Charter article, to provide aid to our allies. This is just what we are doing. Here is a simple sequence and logic in full compliance with international law," Putin stressed.

He cited the simple sequence related to international law and the justification of Russia’s actions in defending the LPR and DPR. He reiterated that the UN Charter talks about a nation’s right to self-determination: during the Kosovo crisis, the International Court of Justice made a decision according to which, if a part of some territories wants to declare its independence, it does not have to ask permission from its country’s central government. "This is applicable to Kosovo. So, it applies to the DPR and LPR - isn't it the same? Yes, it’s all the same. And if they have the right to this, and they do have it in accordance with the UN Charter and a nation’s right to self-determination, they - by implementing this right - declared their independence. Do they have this right from the standpoint of international law and the UN Charter? They do. And this right is confirmed by the relevant decision of the UN Court in application to Kosovo," the head of state explained.

"If we recognize them, can we conclude an international agreement on friendship, cooperation and mutual aid? Of course, we can. We signed this agreement, it was ratified by the Russian parliament and their parliaments, and there are certain obligations for the Russian side - to provide them with aid, even in the event of aggression.

In this case, aggression by the Kiev regime which is essentially illegitimate because it was founded on a coup d’etat as its original source of power in Ukraine nowadays," the Russian leader outlined.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin
 

 

Report # 14. UKRAINIAN ULTRA-NAZI FORMATIONS DISRUPT ALL SAFE CORRIDORS

1. Russia announces new safe passage routes

The Russian Armed Forces announced six humanitarian corridors with a simultaneous ceasefire from 10:00 AM (07:00 GMT) March 7th, 2022 for the residents in Kiev, Mariupol, Kharkov and Sumy with the aim to evacuate trapped civilians.
 
The Russian MoD said that Ukrainian nationalists in Mariupol at Pobeda (Victory) Square drove more than 150 civilians ahead of them as “human shields” as German fascists did during the WWII, and opened fire on DPR fighters from behind the civilians' backs. 4 refugees have been killed and 5 wounded by nationalists for protests and disobedience.
 
Detailed information about the humanitarian corridors was brought to the Ukrainian side in advance, as well as to the UNO, the OSCE and the International Committee of the Red Cross. No assistance has been promised by them by 15:00 Moscow time March 7th.
 
Kiev once again refused to recognize these save passage routes.
 

2. Situation at the fronts

Since the beginning of the military's special operation, the Russian Armed Forces as it stands for March 7th, 2022, have destroyed in total, 2,396 military facilities in Ukraine were destroyed during the operation. Among them: 82 command and control and communication centers of the Ukrainian armed forces, 119 S-300, Buk M-1 and Osa AAD systems, as well as 76 radar stations.
 
827 tanks and other APCs, 84 multiple launch rocket systems, 304 field artillery and mortar guns, 603 special military vehicles, as well as 78 unmanned aerial vehicles were also destroyed.
 

3. Kiev’s radioactive blackmail goes on

Ukraine’s national security service, the SBU, conspired with Azov Battalion fighters to stage a false flag attack in Kharkov. According to the Russian MoD, the ultranationalists militants planned to blow up an experimental nuclear reactor placed at the Kharkov Institute of Physics and Technology (KIPT) with explosives.
 
The physical and nuclear safety of the active Zaporozhskaya NPP and shut down Cernobyl NPP are being maintained by Russian troops in cooperation with Ukrainian security and Ukrainian personnel. Radiation level there is normal.
 
Meanwhile Moscow accepted the suggestion made by the IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi to hold a trilateral meeting involving the IAEA, Ukraine, and Russia on safety of Ukrainian NPPs – either via videoconference or in any third country.
 
Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 140. AFU stopped its offensive in the South and downsized them in the North, with too many KIA

September 11, 2022


Note: There are three Russian MoD reports on the recent developments on the battlefield for the last three days and one MoD statement


 

1. Russian MoD: Special Military Operation or SMO continues (dated September 10, 2022)


BULLIT POINTS:

The latest figures from the battlefields since September 6 till 10: in the Southern front 4,000 Ukrainians as KIA and 8,000 as WIA,and 2,000 Ukrainians have been reported as KIA in the Ukrainian South.

The Lugansk People’s Republic is under full Russia and Donbass troops control – said the LPR Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik.

Russia has full supremacy in air power and in heavy weapons over AFU in every region

Russia has substantially reinforced by its troops at the Northern area in Ukraine


 

Более 4 тысяч убитыми: в Минобороны РФ сообщили о значительных потерях ВСУ на двух направленияхHigh-precision armament of Russian Aerospace Forces has neutralised the headquarters of 5th National Guard Brigade, the provisional bases of the units from 92nd Mechanised Brigade and Kraken nationalist group deployed near Balakleya and Chuguyev (Kharkov region), as well as the command post of 54th Mechanised Brigade deployed near Ray-Aleksandrovka (Donetsk People's Republic).

The attack has resulted in the elimination of up to 300 Ukrainian servicemen and up to 15 units of military equipment.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery continue launching attacks at the military facilities in Ukraine.

7 AFU command posts have been neutralised near Rozovka, Ocheretino, Vodyanoye, Novomikhaylovka and Ugledar (Donetsk People's Republic), Snigiryovka and Novonikolayevka (Nikolayev region), as well as 48 artillery units, 178 AFU manpower and military equipment concentration areas.

6 missile, artillery armament and munitions depots have been destroyed near Kurakhovo, Konstantinovka and Seversk (Donetsk People's Republic), Dnepr and Radushnoye (Dnepropetrovsk region), Gulyay Pole (Zaporozhye region).

One radar for detecting and tracking air targets has been destroyed near Kaluga (Nikolayev region).

Within the counter-battery warfare, 2 plattoons of rocket artillery and 5 plattoons of cannon artillery of the AFU have been neutralised near Georgiyevka, Krasnogorovka, Antonovka, Romanovka, Ocheretino, Novgorodskoye and Novosyolovka Pervaya (Donetsk People's Republic).

One U.S.-manufactured 155-mm M-777 howitzer has been destroyed near Novosyolovka Pervaya (Donetsk People's Republic).

Air defence means have shot down 13 unmanned aerial vehicles near Chkalovo and Belyayevka (Kherson region), Krasnoye (Kharkov region), Smeloye, Staromlynovka and Novoukrainskoye (Zaporozhye region), as well as near Novoandreyevka, Valeryanovka, Kirillovka and Panteleymonovka (Donetsk People's Republic).

5 projectiles launched by HIMARS MRLS have been destroyed in air near Novaya Kakhovka (Kherson region).

In total, 293 airplanes and 152 helicopters, 1,916 unmanned aerial vehicles, 374 air defence missile systems, 4,870 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 830 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 3,375 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 5,432 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the SMO.

2.  Statement by Russian MoD dated September 10:

To achieve the stated goals of the SMO to liberate Donbass, it was decided to regroup the Russian troops stationed in the Balakleya and Izyum areas to increase efforts in the Donetsk direction.

For this purpose, within [last] three days, an operation was conducted to roll back and organize the transfer of the Izyum-Balakleya group of troops to the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic.

In the course of this operation a number of distracting and demonstration activities imitating the real actions of troops, were carried out.

In order to prevent damage to the Russian troops, the enemy was attacked with powerful fire with the use of aviation, missile forces and artillery.

Over [the past] three days, more than two thousand Ukrainian and foreign fighters, as well as more than a hundred units of armored vehicles and artillery pieces were destroyed.

3. Russian MoD: SMO has not been stopped (dated September 9)

The Armed Forces of Ukraine made various unsuccessful attempts to attack, suffered losses and withdrew their forces at Nikolayev-Krivoy Rog direction.

Manpower and military equipment of 46th Airmobile Brigade, 35th Marines' Brigade and 61st Chaser Infantry Brigade have been neutralised near Bezymennoye, Novogrigoryevka (Nikolayev region) and Sukhoy Stavok (Kherson region).

The enemy has lost a total of 3 tanks, 4 infantry combat vehicles and 7 other armoured vehicles, 2 pick-ups with large-calibre machine guns and over 270 servicemen at Nikolayev-Krivoy Rog direction.

High-precision attacks of Russian Aerospace Forces have resulted in the neutralisation of the command posts of Kraken nationalist group deployed near Prishib (Kharkov region) and 93rd Mechanised Brigade near Artyomovsk (Donetsk People's Republic). Over 50 nationalists, as well as 16 units of special military equipment and motor vehicles have been eliminated.

Attacks launched by high-precision ground-based armament at the provisional bases of the units from 127th Territorial Defence Brigade and 14th Mechanised Brigade deployed near Kharkov have resulted in the elimination of over 50 and wounding over 120 Ukrainian servicemen.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery continue launching attacks at the military facilities in Ukraine.

8 AFU command posts have been neutralised near Lebyazhye, Chervony Yar, Gusarovka and Liman (Kharkov region), Maryinka and Ray-Aleksandrovka (Donetsk People's Republic), Krivoy Rog (Dnepropetrovsk region), Gulyay Pole (Zaporozhye region), as well as 52 artillery units, 153 AFU manpower and military equipment concentration areas.

Eight AFU missile, artillery and munitions depots have been destroyed near Chuguyev (Kharkov region) and Radushnoye (Dnepropetrovsk region).

One combat vehicle of U.S.-manufactured HIMARS multiple rocket-launching system has been destroyed near Chervony Donets (Kharkov region).

One U.S.-made M-777 howitzer has been destroyed near Rovnopolye (Zaporozhye Region).

Air defence means have shot down 6 unmanned aerial vehicles near Izyum (Kharkov region), Staromlinovka, Kirillovka, Slavnoye and Makeyevka (Donetsk People's Republic), as well as Sladkaya Balka (Zaporozhye region).

18 projectiles launched by HIMARS and Olkha MRLS have been destroyed in air near Novaya Kakhovka and Golaya Pristan (Kherson region), as well as near Kakhovka hydroelectric plant.

In total, 293 airplanes and 152 helicopters, 1,916 unmanned aerial vehicles, 374 air defence missile systems, 4,870 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 827 combat vehicles equipped with MRLS, 3,371 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 5,417 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the SMO.

4.  Russian MoD statement (dated September 8)

Due to high losses of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) that formed the basis of the attack group, Ukrainian troops have held no offensive operations at Nikolayev-Krivoy Rog direction. That is in the South of Ukraine.

Russian Aerospace Forces, missile troops and artillery continue launching high-precision attacks at AFU units and reserve forces at the abovementioned direction.

The list of neutralised targets includes the command posts of 63rd Mechanised Brigade of the AFU near Bereznegovatoye (Nikolayev region), the manpower and military equipment of 46 Airmobile, 57th Mechanised Infantry and 28th Mechanised brigades of the AFU near Sukhoy Stavok, Petrovskoye, Plotnitskoye landmark (Kherson region), Murakhovka and Ternoviye Pody (Nikolayev region).

One munitions depot has been destroyed near Murakhovka (Nikolayev region).

Fighter aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces has shot down 1 Su-25 of Ukrainian Air Force near Konstantinovka (Nikolayev region).

Due to high losses caused by concentrated fire attacks of Russian Armed Forces launched at the positions of 59th Mechanised Infantry Brigade of the AFU near Ukrainka, Zelyony Gay and Novogrivoryevka (Nikolayev region), Ukrainian servicemen refused to fulfil combat tasks and commenced withdrawing to the rear areas.

The enemy has lost a total of 2 tanks, 6 infantry combat vehicles and 5 other armoured vehicles, 7 pickups with large-calibre machine guns and over 190 servicemen at Nikolayev-Krivoy Rog direction over the past 24 hours.

High-precision attacks of Russian Aerospace Forces have resulted in the neutralisation of the provisional bases of the units from 95th Air Assault Brigade near Slavyansk and 81st Airmobile Brigade near Kramatorsk (Donetsk People's Republic). Up to 120 Ukrainian servicemen, 15 armoured and motor vehicles have been eliminated.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery continue launching attacks at the military facilities in Ukraine.

5 AFU command posts, including those of 72nd Mechanised, 58th and 53rd Mechanised Infantry brigades near Dzerzhinsk, Soledar and Artyomovsk (Donetsk People's Republic), 1st Tank Brigade near Novonikolayevka (Zaporozhye region), as well as 51 artillery units, 167 AFU manpower and military equipment concentration areas.

5 missile, artillery and munitions depots have been destroyed near Trudovoye (Zaporozhye region), Kurakhovo, Konstantinovka, Seversk (Donetsk People's Republic) and Balakleya (Kharkov region).

Moreover, 1 launching ramp of Buk-M1 air defence missile system has been destroyed near Belaya Krinitsa (Nikolayev region), as well as 1 air target detecting and tracking radar near Malomikhaylovka (Dnepropetrovsk region).

Air defence means of Russian Aerospace Forces have shot down 13 unmanned aerial vehicles near Chervonosyolovka, Ocheretovatoye and Aleksandrovka (Zaporozhye region), Vladimirovka, Mandrykino railway station, Kirillovka and Novoandreyevka (Donetsk People's Republic), Lyubimovka, Kreshchenovka, Kirovo and Tomina Balka (Kherson region), Alisovka (Kharkov region), Senkovka (Chernigov region), as well as Tochka-U ballistic missile near Rakovka (Kherson region).

19 MRLS projectiles, including 16 launched by HIMARS, have been intercepted near Novaya Kakhovka, Molodyozhnoye (Kherson region), Novoosinovo, Grushevka (Kharkov region) and 3 rocket-propelled projectiles launched by Olkha MRLS near Antonovka (Kherson region).

In total, 293 airplanes and 152 helicopters, 1,910 unmanned aerial vehicles, 374 air defence missile systems, 4,863 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 826 combat vehicles equipped with MRLS, 3,369 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 5,387 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

5. Ukraine still attacks ZNPP: the IAEA is silent as before

Kiev regime continuesZNPP has shut down its sixth power unit its provocations aimed at creating a possible technological disaster at Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (NPP).

Six artillery attacks launched at Energodar city have been recordered on September, 9-10. A total of 27 projectiles have been launched from Marganets city located at the opposite shore of Kakhovka Reservoir and controlled by AFU. The attack launched at the power transmission line has resulted in leaving the city without electricity.

Enemy firepower has been neutralised by Russian artillery's counter-attack launched by units located far away from ZNPP.

Authorities of Zaporozhye Region reported on September 11 about the shutdown of the sixth power unit of ZNPP, Vladimir Rogov, a member of the Zaporozhye Region’s Main Council of the Administration, said.


“For the last few days, the only operating power unit – the six one  – has been operating at minimum capacity. At night, it was shut down at 3:45 a.m. Now it is not generating electricity,” he announced.


 

That was the result of uninterrupted shelling of ZNPP by Ukrainian troops verified by space-based system of verification, aerial control, counter-battery fire radars and a great number of fragments from Ukrainian and the U.S. artillery ammunition that have been found and collected. Two main places still controlled by Ukrainian troops where from AFU fired at ZNPP have been identified: the cities of Nikopol and Marganets. Three Ukrainian heavily armed groups from these places have made three unsuccessful attempts to capture the plant. One such attempt has been made when the IAEA team was at ZNPP.

On the other hand, Kiev failed to submit any material and electronic (video or photo) evidence of the alleged “attacks of ZNPP made by Russian forces”.  Kiev also was not able to find out the areas of such “attacks”. Naturally.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 141. Ukrainian “counter-offensive” has bogged down

September 12, 2022

 Six months in, the fight in Ukraine is far from finished. But for those in Kiev and its supporters in NATO/EU, even before the success of the last few days, there are signs that Russian military machine could not run out of steam and limit or forget two major goals announced by Moscow in February: to reach denazification and demilitarization of a neo-Nazi regime implanted as a highly virulent mushroom by Washington.

In many cases Russia has clearly stated such strategy, making a strong emphasis on several notions: to liberate not only LPR (it has been liberated already) and DPR (with 80 percent of its land freed from Armed Forces of Ukraine or AFU). Russia will also keep Crimea as a permanent part of the national territory, plus will help the civilians of the Southern and Northern regions of the rest of Ukraine to make a free choice with whom to live – inside Ukraine or inside Russia.

Several villages and some miner settlements in the North and in the South of Ukraine without any strategic significance have been left by Russian troops. Many Ukrainian GIs and foreign mercenaries became KIA.

Highly advertised at the end of the last August Ukrainian ”counteroffensive” to be launched on the Southern battlefields has stopped completely.

 High-precision missile attacks of Russian Aerospace Forces have resulted in the neutralisation of the units from 63rd Mechanised and 46th Airmobile Brigades at Nikolayev-Krivoy Rog direction near Kostromka and Belogorka (Kherson Region). AFU lost a total of over 300 servicemen dead and up to 1,000 wounded over the past 24 hours at the abovementioned operational direction. A very successful result has been attained: a huge AFU munitions depot that storaged 45 thousand tonnes of munitions has been destroyed near Voznesensk (Nikolayev Region).

Russian Aerospace Forces, missile troops and artillery continue launching high-precision attacks at AFU units and reserve forces in Kharkov Region. AFU operation unleashed by Kiev at the beginning of September up North has bogged down with heavy AFU losses.

Manpower and military equipment of Kraken nationalist group, 113th Territorial Defence Brigade and 93rd Mechanised Brigade have been neutralised near Kupyansk and Izyum.  The strikes have resulted in the elimination of the military personnel and military equipment of the units of the 14th and 92nd Mechanized Brigades of the AFU in that region. AFU has lost up to 250 servicemen and over 20 units of military equipment there; 36 artillery units, 125 manpower and military equipment concentration areas have been destroyed in the DPR.


In total, since September 6 to 12, the failed Kiev “counteroffensive” in the North and in the South of the country has cost it more than 12,000 casualties


On these battlegrounds Russian Armed Forces have used highly effective heavy weapons on a massive scale, including “Solntsepyok”. It is a 220-mm heavy flamethrower system having 24 or 30-barrel multiple rocket launcher fitted with thermobaric warheads (photo is below). It is impossible to escape from its firewall.

Russian military experts do not exclude to employ heavy strategic bombers with non-nuclear guided air-dropped bombs and air-launched missiles against the Ukrainian military reserves concentrated in some areas of Ukraine.

AFU soldiers wounded during an attempted “counterattack” in Kherson Region complained about catastrophic losses, a shortage of shells and a dramatic lagging behind the Russian army in terms of technology.

A pin-point accurate Russian strikes have been delivered against AFU and nationalists massed in the DPR, Cherkassy, Zaporozhye, Kherson, Kharkov and other regions in Ukraine.

Russian Armed Forces have air supremacy and enough heavy munitions to penetrate any Ukrainian defense.

Danne Lyone, who came from Sweden to fight on the side of Kiev, complained on social media that after intense fighting in recent days, three men of his platoon’s 22 men – including himself – were left in the ranks only. The rest, he said, were killed or seriously wounded.  As one example, Lyon cited the case of an anti-tank grenade that landed in a bunker. Four foreign fighters were in the stronghold at the time. Two of them, wrote the Swedish mercenary, were killed on the spot, while the other two were seriously wounded and knocked out of action. A mercenary with the call sign “Messi” had his leg blown off.

If Kiev rulers continue the third armed aggression and the policy of genocide against civilians living in Donbass and in other areas in Ukraine, Russian military response will be crystal clear – to find Ukrainian GIs everywhere they use weapons versus armless people wishing not to stay in such cruel and barbaric state called “Ukraine” and against Zaporozhye NPP. Each day AFU is shelling residential and social infrastructure in these areas by heavy weapons – firing nearly 300-400 shells, mines and rockets per day, and around 20-30 rounds at Zaporozhye NPP damaging its fresh and spent nuclear fuel, cooling system and electric grid.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

 

 

Report # 146. Breaking news: The majority voted to live in Russia

September 27, 2022

1. The majority of voters in four regions expressed their wish to live in Russia

Four separate referenda held in two independent republics in Donbass and in two regions in southern Ukraine, namely Kherson and Zaporozhye Oblast or Regions between September 23-27 ended at 16:00 hours local time on September 27th, 2022.


According to preliminary results (with 15% of ballot papers counted by 17:00 Moscow time) overwhelming majority of voters have OKeyed admission of all these regions to the Russian Federation as equal subjects.


ДНР, ЛНР, Херсонская и Запорожская области опубликовали первые результаты референдумовAll referenda have been recognized as valid. They have witnessed very high level of participation of voters despite permanent heavy shelling of the residential areas in all four regions by heavy weapons, including the U.S.-made MLRS HIMARS, by Armed Forces of Ukraine in violation of the UN Charter, the OSCE decisions and the EU basic principles.

The preliminary results will be announced on September 28th, and final results – some days later.

Such fantastic returns ran counter to Mrs Annalena Baerbock, German Foreign Minister’s allegations, who in a Marcus Lanza’s TV program have disseminated false information about the referenda by claiming that the voters are shot, they are raped, and then they have to put crosses for three days while soldiers with Kalashnikovs [assault rifles] in their hands stand next to them.

Where she has got this false information? Nowhere. Such cases have not been recorded during the referenda. More than 200 foreign observers who have arrived to these regions have not confirmed such false allegations. And no local citizen has lodged any respective complaint, by the way.

The German Ambassador in Moscow should be summoned to the Russian MFA to give explanations why Baerbock has used such unverified propaganda with a very bad smell. She has undermined her political carrier by many coarse and unverified false statements earlier.

This is one more and the latest vivid example of her wrong behavior. Shame that she still represents Germany as the head of the German diplomatic service.

2. Why the majority of citizens in four named regions have voted for joining Russia?

No long arguments and explanations – there are plenty of them to catalogue them here. No time. Later. Just official figures:

In LPR

Since 2014 till February 24, 2022:

killed – 1771 (here and in all other cases atrocities have been done by Armed Forces of Ukraine);

wounded - 3350;

children killed – 38;

children wounded – 91;

social infrastructure buildings destroyed – more than 7200;

social infrastructure buildings damaged – more than 26000

 

Since February 24 till September 23, 2022:

killed – 91;

wounded – 292;

children killed – 7;

children wounded – 26;

social infrastructure buildings destroyed – 252;

social infrastructure buildings damaged  – 2846

 

In DPR:

Since 2014 till February 24, 2022:

killed – 9178;

wounded  – более 24629;

children killed– 120;

children wounded– 548;

(NOTE: all data below for social infrastructure buildings is collected since 2017)

social infrastructure buildings destroyed – 2895;

social infrastructure buildings damaged  – 9987

 

Since February 24 till September 23, 2022:

killed – 908;

wounded – 3475;

children killed– 26;

social infrastructure buildings destroyed – 1790;

social infrastructure buildings damaged – 7470


A STRAIGHTFORWARD QUESTION:

Where will you prefer to live after having experienced all this:

 in Ukraine or in Russia?


3. Kiev regime continues shelling ZNPP

On September 26, Ukrainian artillery shelled residential areas of Energodar and the territory adjacent to the nuclear power plant. During the day, Ukrainian artillery fired 59 shells. Four of them exploded near Kazachaya Street in Energodar, and one hit a water utility near Zaporozhye nuclear power plant or ZNPP. The shelling was carried out from cities of Marganets and Nikopol (Dnepropetrovsk Region), controlled by the AFU. Enemy firepower has been neutralized by Russian artillery's counter-attack.

In addition, the attempts of the AFU to strike the territory of the ZNPP by eight loitering unmanned aerial vehicles also launched by AFU have been prevented. All Ukrainian UAVs were shot down outside the territory of the nuclear plant.


As in the past, the UNO. OSCE and IAEA have not criticized president Zelensky’s regime for such barbaric actions against operating NPP. Waiting for a disaster?


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

 

Report # 148. Accession of four independent territories to Russia

October 1, 2022

 

1. President of Russia Vladimir Putin’s statement at a ceremony for signing the treaties on the accession of the Donetsk People's Republic, the Lugansk People's Republic, the Zaporozhye Region and the Kherson Region to the Russian Federation

(Moscow, Grand Kremlin Palace’s St George Hall. September 30,2022).

“Citizens of Russia, citizens of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, residents of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, deputies of the State Duma, senators of the Russian Federation,

As you know, referendums have been held in the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics and the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. The ballots have been counted and the results have been announced. The people have made their unequivocal choice.

Today we will sign treaties on the accession of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Lugansk People’s Republic, Zaporozhye Region and Kherson Region to the Russian Federation. I have no doubt that the Federal Assembly will support the constitutional laws on the accession to Russia and the establishment of four new regions, our new constituent entities of the Russian Federation, because this is the will of millions of people. (Applause.)

It is undoubtedly their right, an inherent right sealed in Article 1 of the UN Charter, which directly states the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples.

I repeat, it is an inherent right of the people. It is based on our historical affinity, and it is that right that led generations of our predecessors, those who built and defended Russia for centuries since the period of Ancient Rus, to victory.

Here in Novorossiya, [Pyotr] Rumyantsev, [Alexander] Suvorov and [Fyodor] Ushakov fought their battles, and Catherine the Great and [Grigory] Potyomkin founded new cities. Our grandfathers and great-grandfathers fought here to the bitter end during the Great Patriotic War.

We will always remember the heroes of the Russian Spring, those who refused to accept the neo-Nazi coup d'état in Ukraine in 2014, all those who died for the right to speak their native language, to preserve their culture, traditions and religion, and for the very right to live. We remember the soldiers of Donbass, the martyrs of the “Odessa Khatyn,” the victims of inhuman terrorist attacks carried out by the Kiev regime. We commemorate volunteers and militiamen, civilians, children, women, senior citizens, Russians, Ukrainians, people of various nationalities; popular leader of Donetsk Alexander Zakharchenko; military commanders Arsen Pavlov and Vladimir Zhoga, Olga Kochura and Alexei Mozgovoy; prosecutor of the Lugansk Republic Sergei Gorenko; paratrooper Nurmagomed Gadzhimagomedov and all our soldiers and officers who died a hero’s death during the special military operation. They are heroes. (Applause.) Heroes of great Russia. Please join me in a minute of silence to honour their memory.

(Minute of silence.)

Thank you.

Behind the choice of millions of residents in the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, in the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, is our common destiny and thousand-year history. People have passed this spiritual connection on to their children and grandchildren. Despite all the trials they endured, they carried the love for Russia through the years. This is something no one can destroy. That is why both older generations and young people – those who were born after the tragic collapse of the Soviet Union – have voted for our unity, for our common future.

In 1991 in Belovezhskaya Pushcha, representatives of the party elite of that time made a decision to terminate the Soviet Union, without asking ordinary citizens what they wanted, and people suddenly found themselves cut off from their homeland. This tore apart and dismembered our national community and triggered a national catastrophe. Just like the government quietly demarcated the borders of Soviet republics, acting behind the scenes after the 1917 revolution, the last leaders of the Soviet Union, contrary to the direct expression of the will of the majority of people in the referendum of 1991, destroyed our great country, and simply made the people in the former republics face this as an accomplished fact.

I can admit that they didn’t even know what they were doing and what consequences their actions would have in the end. But it doesn't matter now. There is no Soviet Union anymore; we cannot return to the past. Actually, Russia no longer needs it today; this isn’t our ambition. But there is nothing stronger than the determination of millions of people who, by their culture, religion, traditions, and language, consider themselves part of Russia, whose ancestors lived in a single country for centuries. There is nothing stronger than their determination to return to their true historical homeland.

For eight long years, people in Donbass were subjected to genocide, shelling and blockades; in Kherson and Zaporozhye, a criminal policy was pursued to cultivate hatred for Russia, for everything Russian. Now too, during the referendums, the Kiev regime threatened schoolteachers, women who worked in election commissions with reprisals and death. Kiev threatened millions of people who came to express their will with repression. But the people of Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson weren’t broken, and they had their say.

I want the Kiev authorities and their true handlers in the West to hear me now, and I want everyone to remember this: the people living in Lugansk and Donetsk, in Kherson and Zaporozhye have become our citizens, forever. (Applause.)

We call on the Kiev regime to immediately cease fire and all hostilities; to end the war it unleashed back in 2014 and return to the negotiating table. We are ready for this, as we have said more than once. But the choice of the people in Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson will not be discussed. The decision has been made, and Russia will not betray it. (Applause.) Kiev’s current authorities should respect this free expression of the people’s will; there is no other way. This is the only way to peace.

We will defend our land with all the forces and resources we have, and we will do everything we can to ensure the safety of our people. This is the great liberating mission of our nation.

We will definitely rebuild the destroyed cities and towns, the residential buildings, schools, hospitals, theatres and museums. We will restore and develop industrial enterprises, factories, infrastructure, as well as the social security, pension, healthcare and education systems.

We will certainly work to improve the level of security. Together we will make sure that citizens in the new regions can feel the support of all the people of Russia, of the entire nation, all the republics, territories and regions of our vast Motherland. (Applause.)

Friends, colleagues,

Today I would like to address our soldiers and officers who are taking part in the special military operation, the fighters of Donbass and Novorossiya, those who went to military recruitment offices after receiving a call-up paper under the executive order on partial mobilisation, and those who did this voluntarily, answering the call of their hearts. I would like to address their parents, wives and children, to tell them what our people are fighting for, what kind of enemy we are up against, and who is pushing the world into new wars and crises and deriving blood-stained benefits from this tragedy.

Our compatriots, our brothers and sisters in Ukraine who are part of our united people have seen with their own eyes what the ruling class of the so-called West have prepared for humanity as a whole. They have dropped their masks and shown what they are really made of.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, the West decided that the world and all of us would permanently accede to its dictates. In 1991, the West thought that Russia would never rise after such shocks and would fall to pieces on its own. This almost happened. We remember the horrible 1990s, hungry, cold and hopeless. But Russia remained standing, came alive, grew stronger and occupied its rightful place in the world.

Meanwhile, the West continued and continues looking for another chance to strike a blow at us, to weaken and break up Russia, which they have always dreamed about, to divide our state and set our peoples against each other, and to condemn them to poverty and extinction. They cannot rest easy knowing that there is such a great country with this huge territory in the world, with its natural wealth, resources and people who cannot and will not do someone else’s bidding.

The West is ready to cross every line to preserve the neo-colonial system which allows it to live off the world, to plunder it thanks to the domination of the dollar and technology, to collect an actual tribute from humanity, to extract its primary source of unearned prosperity, the rent paid to the hegemon. The preservation of this annuity is their main, real and absolutely self-serving motivation. This is why total de-sovereignisation is in their interest. This explains their aggression towards independent states, traditional values and authentic cultures, their attempts to undermine international and integration processes, new global currencies and technological development centres they cannot control. It is critically important for them to force all countries to surrender their sovereignty to the United States.

In certain countries, the ruling elites voluntarily agree to do this, voluntarily agree to become vassals; others are bribed or intimidated. And if this does not work, they destroy entire states, leaving behind humanitarian disasters, devastation, ruins, millions of wrecked and mangled human lives, terrorist enclaves, social disaster zones, protectorates, colonies and semi-colonies. They don't care. All they care about is their own benefit.

I want to underscore again that their insatiability and determination to preserve their unfettered dominance are the real causes of the hybrid war that the collective West is waging against Russia. They do not want us to be free; they want us to be a colony. They do not want equal cooperation; they want to loot. They do not want to see us a free society, but a mass of soulless slaves.

They see our thought and our philosophy as a direct threat. That is why they target our philosophers for assassination. Our culture and art present a danger to them, so they are trying to ban them. Our development and prosperity are also a threat to them because competition is growing. They do not want or need Russia, but we do. (Applause.)

I would like to remind you that in the past, ambitions of world domination have repeatedly shattered against the courage and resilience of our people. Russia will always be Russia. We will continue to defend our values and our Motherland.

The West is counting on impunity, on being able to get away with anything. As a matter of fact, this was actually the case until recently. Strategic security agreements have been trashed; agreements reached at the highest political level have been declared tall tales; firm promises not to expand NATO to the east gave way to dirty deception as soon as our former leaders bought into them; missile defence, intermediate-range and shorter-range missile treaties have been unilaterally dismantled under far-fetched pretexts.

And all we hear is, the West is insisting on a rules-based order. Where did that come from anyway? Who has ever seen these rules? Who agreed or approved them? Listen, this is just a lot of nonsense, utter deceit, double standards, or even triple standards! They must think we’re stupid.

Russia is a great thousand-year-old power, a whole civilisation, and it is not going to live by such makeshift, false rules. (Applause.)

It was the so-called West that trampled on the principle of the inviolability of borders, and now it is deciding, at its own discretion, who has the right to self-determination and who does not, who is unworthy of it. It is unclear what their decisions are based on or who gave them the right to decide in the first place. They just assumed it.

That is why the choice of the people in Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson makes them so furiously angry. The West does not have any moral right to weigh in, or even utter a word about freedom of democracy. It does not and it never did.

Western elites not only deny national sovereignty and international law. Their hegemony has pronounced features of totalitarianism, despotism and apartheid. They brazenly divide the world into their vassals – the so-called civilised countries – and all the rest, who, according to the designs of today's Western racists, should be added to the list of barbarians and savages. False labels like “rogue country” or “authoritarian regime” are already available, and are used to stigmatise entire nations and states, which is nothing new. There is nothing new in this: deep down, the Western elites have remained the same colonisers. They discriminate and divide peoples into the top tier and the rest.

We have never agreed to and will never agree to such political nationalism and racism. What else, if not racism, is the Russophobia being spread around the world? What, if not racism, is the West’s dogmatic conviction that its civilisation and neoliberal culture is an indisputable model for the entire world to follow? “You’re either with us or against us.” It even sounds strange.

Western elites are even shifting repentance for their own historical crimes on everyone else, demanding that the citizens of their countries and other peoples confess to things they have nothing to do with at all, for example, the period of colonial conquests.

It is worth reminding the West that it began its colonial policy back in the Middle Ages, followed by the worldwide slave trade, the genocide of Indian tribes in America, the plunder of India and Africa, the wars of England and France against China, as a result of which it was forced to open its ports to the opium trade. What they did was get entire nations hooked on drugs and purposefully exterminated entire ethnic groups for the sake of grabbing land and resources, hunting people like animals. This is contrary to human nature, truth, freedom and justice.

While we – we are proud that in the 20th century our country led the anti-colonial movement, which opened up opportunities for many peoples around the world to make progress, reduce poverty and inequality, and defeat hunger and disease.

To emphasise, one of the reasons for the centuries-old Russophobia, the Western elites’ unconcealed animosity toward Russia is precisely the fact that we did not allow them to rob us during the period of colonial conquests and forced the Europeans to trade with us on mutually beneficial terms. This was achieved by creating a strong centralised state in Russia, which grew and got stronger based on the great moral values​​of Orthodox Christianity, Islam, Judaism and Buddhism, as well as Russian culture and the Russian word that were open to all.

There were numerous plans to invade Russia. Such attempts were made during the Time of Troubles in the 17th century and in the period of ordeals after the 1917 revolution. All of them failed. The West managed to grab hold of Russia’s wealth only in the late 20th century, when the state had been destroyed. They called us friends and partners, but they treated us like a colony, using various schemes to pump trillions of dollars out of the country. We remember. We have not forgotten anything.

A few days ago, people in Donetsk and Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye declared their support for restoring our historical unity. Thank you! (Applause.)

Western countries have been saying for centuries that they bring freedom and democracy to other nations. Nothing could be further from the truth. Instead of bringing democracy they suppressed and exploited, and instead of giving freedom they enslaved and oppressed. The unipolar world is inherently anti-democratic and unfree; it is false and hypocritical through and through.

The United States is the only country in the world that has used nuclear weapons twice, destroying the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan. And they created a precedent.

Recall that during WWII the United States and Britain reduced Dresden, Hamburg, Cologne and many other German cities to rubble, without the least military necessity. It was done ostentatiously and, to repeat, without any military necessity. They had only one goal, as with the nuclear bombing of Japanese cities: to intimidate our country and the rest of the world.

The United States left a deep scar in the memory of the people of Korea and Vietnam with their carpet bombings and use of napalm and chemical weapons.

It actually continues to occupy Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea and other countries, which they cynically refer to as equals and allies. Look now, what kind of alliance is that? The whole world knows that the top officials in these countries are being spied on and that their offices and homes are bugged. It is a disgrace, a disgrace for those who do this and for those who, like slaves, silently and meekly swallow this arrogant behaviour.

They call the orders and threats they make to their vassals Euro-Atlantic solidarity, and the creation of biological weapons and the use of human test subjects, including in Ukraine, noble medical research.

It is their destructive policies, wars and plunder that have unleashed today’s massive wave of migrants. Millions of people endure hardships and humiliation or die by the thousands trying to reach Europe.

They are exporting grain from Ukraine now. Where are they taking it under the guise of ensuring the food security of the poorest countries? Where is it going? They are taking it to the self-same European countries. Only five percent has been delivered to the poorest countries. More cheating and naked deception again.

In effect, the American elite is using the tragedy of these people to weaken its rivals, to destroy nation states. This goes for Europe and for the identities of France, Italy, Spain and other countries with centuries-long histories.

Washington demands more and more sanctions against Russia and the majority of European politicians obediently go along with it. They clearly understand that by pressuring the EU to completely give up Russian energy and other resources, the United States is practically pushing Europe toward deindustrialisation in a bid to get its hands on the entire European market. These European elites understand everything – they do, but they prefer to serve the interests of others. This is no longer servility but direct betrayal of their own peoples. God bless, it is up to them.

But the Anglo-Saxons believe sanctions are no longer enough and now they have turned to subversion. It seems incredible but it is a fact – by causing explosions on Nord Stream’s international gas pipelines passing along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, they have actually embarked on the destruction of Europe’s entire energy infrastructure. It is clear to everyone who stands to gain. Those who benefit are responsible, of course.

The dictates of the US are backed up by crude force, on the law of the fist. Sometimes it is beautifully wrapped sometimes there is no wrapping at all but the gist is the same – the law of the fist. Hence, the deployment and maintenance of hundreds of military bases in all corners of the world, NATO expansion, and attempts to cobble together new military alliances, such as AUKUS and the like. Much is being done to create a Washington-Seoul-Tokyo military-political chain. All states that possess or aspire to genuine strategic sovereignty and are capable of challenging Western hegemony, are automatically declared enemies.

These are the principles that underlie US and NATO military doctrines that require total domination. Western elites are presenting their neocolonialist plans with the same hypocrisy, claiming peaceful intentions, talking about some kind of deterrence. This evasive word migrates from one strategy to another but really only means one thing – undermining any and all sovereign centres of power.

We have already heard about the deterrence of Russia, China and Iran. I believe next in line are other countries of Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, as well as current US partners and allies. After all, we know that when they are displeased, they introduce sanctions against their allies as well – against this or that bank or company. This is their practice and they will expand it. They have everything in their sights, including our next-door neighbours – the CIS countries.

At the same time, the West has clearly been engaged in wishful thinking for a long time. In launching the sanctions blitzkrieg against Russia, for example, they thought that they could once again line up the whole world at their command. As it turns out, however, such a bright prospect does not excite everyone – other than complete political masochists and admirers of other unconventional forms of international relations. Most states refuse to ”snap a salute“ and instead choose the sensible path of cooperation with Russia.

The West clearly did not expect such insubordination. They simply got used to acting according to a template, to grab whatever they please, by blackmail, bribery, intimidation, and convinced themselves that these methods would work forever, as if they had fossilised in the past.

Such self-confidence is a direct product not only of the notorious concept of exceptionalism – although it never ceases to amaze – but also of the real ”information hunger“ in the West. The truth has been drowned in an ocean of myths, illusions and fakes, using extremely aggressive propaganda, lying like Goebbels. The more unbelievable the lie, the quicker people will believe it – that is how they operate, according to this principle.

But people cannot be fed with printed dollars and euros. You can't feed them with those pieces of paper, and the virtual, inflated capitalisation of western social media companies can't heat their homes. Everything I am saying is important. And what I just said is no less so: you can't feed anyone with paper – you need food; and you can't heat anyone’s home with these inflated capitalisations – you need energy.

That is why politicians in Europe have to convince their fellow citizens to eat less, take a shower less often and dress warmer at home. And those who start asking fair questions like “Why is that, in fact?” are immediately declared enemies, extremists and radicals. They point back at Russia and say: that is the source of all your troubles. More lies.

I want to make special note of the fact that there is every reason to believe that the Western elites are not going to look for constructive ways out of the global food and energy crisis that they and they alone are to blame for, as a result of their long-term policy, dating back long before our special military operation in Ukraine, in Donbass. They have no intention of solving the problems of injustice and inequality. I am afraid they would rather use other formulas they are more comfortable with.

And here it is important to recall that the West bailed itself out of its early 20th century challenges with World War I. Profits from World War II helped the United States finally overcome the Great Depression and become the largest economy in the world, and to impose on the planet the power of the dollar as a global reserve currency. And the 1980s crisis – things came to a head in the 1980s again – the West emerged from it unscathed largely by appropriating the inheritance and resources of the collapsed and defunct Soviet Union. That's a fact.

Now, in order to free itself from the latest web of challenges, they need to dismantle Russia as well as other states that choose a sovereign path of development, at all costs, to be able to further plunder other nations’ wealth and use it to patch their own holes. If this does not happen, I cannot rule out that they will try to trigger a collapse of the entire system, and blame everything on that, or, God forbid, decide to use the old formula of economic growth through war.

Russia is aware of its responsibility to the international community and will make every effort to ensure that cooler heads prevail.

The current neocolonial model is ultimately doomed; this much is obvious. But I repeat that its real masters will cling to it to the end. They simply have nothing to offer the world except to maintain the same system of plundering and racketeering.

They do not give a damn about the natural right of billions of people, the majority of humanity, to freedom and justice, the right to determine their own future. They have already moved on to the radical denial of moral, religious, and family values.

Let’s answer some very simple questions for ourselves. Now I would like to return to what I said and want to address also all citizens of the country – not just the colleagues that are in the hall – but all citizens of Russia: do we want to have here, in our country, in Russia, “parent number one, parent number two and parent number three” (they have completely lost it!) instead of mother and father? Do we want our schools to impose on our children, from their earliest days in school, perversions that lead to degradation and extinction? Do we want to drum into their heads the ideas that certain other genders exist along with women and men and to offer them gender reassignment surgery? Is that what we want for our country and our children? This is all unacceptable to us. We have a different future of our own.

Let me repeat that the dictatorship of the Western elites targets all societies, including the citizens of Western countries themselves. This is a challenge to all. This complete renunciation of what it means to be human, the overthrow of faith and traditional values, and the suppression of freedom are coming to resemble a “religion in reverse” – pure Satanism. Exposing false messiahs, Jesus Christ said in the Sermon on the Mount: “By their fruits ye shall know them.” These poisonous fruits are already obvious to people, and not only in our country but also in all countries, including many people in the West itself.

The world has entered a period of a fundamental, revolutionary transformation. New centres of power are emerging. They represent the majority – the majority! – of the international community. They are ready not only to declare their interests but also to protect them. They see in multipolarity an opportunity to strengthen their sovereignty, which means gaining genuine freedom, historical prospects, and the right to their own independent, creative and distinctive forms of development, to a harmonious process.

As I have already said, we have many like-minded people in Europe and the United States, and we feel and see their support. An essentially emancipatory, anti-colonial movement against unipolar hegemony is taking shape in the most diverse countries and societies. Its power will only grow with time. It is this force that will determine our future geopolitical reality.

Friends,

Today, we are fighting for a just and free path, first of all for ourselves, for Russia, in order to leave dictate and despotism in the past. I am convinced that countries and peoples understand that a policy based on the exceptionalism of whoever it may be and the suppression of other cultures and peoples is inherently criminal, and that we must close this shameful chapter. The ongoing collapse of Western hegemony is irreversible. And I repeat: things will never be the same.

The battlefield to which destiny and history have called us is a battlefield for our people, for the great historical Russia. (Applause.) For the great historical Russia, for future generations, our children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren. We must protect them against enslavement and monstrous experiments that are designed to cripple their minds and souls.

Today, we are fighting so that it would never occur to anyone that Russia, our people, our language, or our culture can be erased from history. Today, we need a consolidated society, and this consolidation can only be based on sovereignty, freedom, creation, and justice. Our values ​​are humanity, mercy and compassion.

And I want to close with the words of a true patriot Ivan Ilyin: “If I consider Russia my Motherland, that means that I love as a Russian, contemplate and think, sing and speak as a Russian; that I believe in the spiritual strength of the Russian people. Its spirit is my spirit; its destiny is my destiny; its suffering is my grief; and its prosperity is my joy.”

Behind these words stands a glorious spiritual choice, which, for more than a thousand years of Russian statehood, was followed by many generations of our ancestors. Today, we are making this choice; the citizens of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics and the residents of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions have made this choice. They made the choice to be with their people, to be with their Motherland, to share in its destiny, and to be victorious together with it.

The truth is with us, and behind us is Russia! (Applause)”

2. Russia vetoed a UN Security Council draft resolution

Russia vetoed a UN Security Council draft resolution designed to condemn Moscow for incorporating four former Ukrainian regions who overwhelmingly decided not to stay in ultra-Nazi Ukraine. Ten members voted in favor, one (Russia) against and four others abstained.

Russian Ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzia called the US-Albanian draft resolution a "low-grade provocation with a goal that is clear to all."


Comment:

It was very strange that those ten nations preferred to support the draft that ran counter to the UN Charter and neglected the will of nearly 4.9 million voters from these four lands who voted to live in Russia during recent referenda, but not in Ukraine who tortured and killed them for more than 8 years during three uninterrupted armed aggressions launched by Kiev


3. The White House wishes to expand the war in Europe

The USA alone has poured over $ 10 billion in cash into Ukraine's pro-Western political establishment and NGO through the 1990s, 2000s, and early 2010s, and delivered billions of dollars in additional financial and “security assistance” in the aftermath of the 2014 coup d'etat in Kiev to shore up the new government's war against the Donbass. It started in 2014.

US military support will include the $1.1 billion in "additional security assistance" as it has been announced recently that will add more than $15 billion already allocated since. Biden became the president. "And I look forward to signing legislation from Congress that will provide an additional $12 billion to support Ukraine”, he said on September 30.

President Zelensky refused to talk to President Putin after four territories joined Russia.


It means that the USA and Ukraine intend to kill more people living on the shores

of the Black and Azov Seas. In his case they inevitably will confront with

 multi-domain Russian military might from all directions


Note: see data on human losses and material damages inflicted by AFU in DPR and LPR from 2014 till 2022 reflected in Report # 146 dated September 27, 2022

3. AFU opened artillery fire on the city of Energodar

Riverside areas in Energodar where Zaporozhye NPP is located in the Zaporozhye Region, Russian Federation, came under artillery attack from Ukrainian Armed Forces, the city’s Military-civilian administration reported on October 1. Ukrainian nationalists opened artillery fire on the city’s riverside areas. Thirteen explosions with no casualties were reported, the officials said.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 15. Russia prevented the USA and Ukraine to use infectious bio agents in Europe

1. U.S. aid to Kiev in violation of BWC

According to Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, the head of the Russian Armed Forces' Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Protection Troops, the laboratories in Lvov were conducting work with infectious agents of plague, anthrax, and brucellosis, while the labs in Kharkov and Poltava were working with infectious agents of diphtheria, salmonellosis, and dysentery. The aim was to produce highly dangerous infections in violation of the Biological Weapons Convention or BWC (the USA and Ukraine are parties to it).
 
A network comprised of nearly 30 biological laboratories was formed in Ukraine (see map, slide 2), with the activities conducted in these labs being commissioned by the U.S. Pentagon, Russia's Defense Ministry has announced. Four of them operated in the outskirts of Kiev and inside the Ukrainian capital, three in Lvov, and others in large cities like Kharkov, Odessa, Vinnitsa, Ternopol, Nikolaev, Poltava, Uzhgorod, etc.
 

2. Ukrainian Armed Forces still block free exodus of civilians

Russia registered some 2 million appeals for evacuation assistance in the span of the last two days. However, for the last three successive days Kiev rejected all Moscow’s proposals to establish humanitarian corridors: Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk called the offer “absurd and unacceptable”, because Kiev is eager to divert their movement to the West. Russia believes that the refugees have their own exclusive right to choose freely where to go.
 
Russian President Vladimir Putin has asked the EU to put pressure on Ukrainian authorities to “respect humanitarian law” following three failed attempts to evacuate civilians from the country during March 5-7, 2022. No response from the EU by 15:00 Moscow time.
 
Russia once again ensured safe passage for civilians wishing to leave Kiev, Chernigov, Mariupol, Kharkov and Sumy on March, 8th guaranteed by its unilateral ceasefire.
Nearly 5.000 foreign citizens, including around 3.000 students, are still detained in Ukraine by Kiev. Moscow said it would be ready to give them a shelter in Russia and offer the students a chance to study in Russia.
 

3. The USA and NATO with the EU still dream to supply arms to Kiev

Last month, the USA authorized the shipment of $350 million in military aid to Ukraine, while the House of Representatives is currently trying to pass a whopping $10 billion aid package to the country. The EU decided to send $500 million (€450 million) in weaponry last week in an unprecedented step for its entire history, which has not previously supplied aid to a country at war. Such assistance will prolong the conflict.
 
Germany, too, who suffered from Nazi in 1939-1945 reversed its policies on not shipping weapons to conflict zones. Pure memory. And a violation of the 1993 OSCE decision.
 

4. Military operation “Free Ukraine” is underway

Over the past 24 hours, bomber and attack aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed 158 military facilities on the territory of Ukraine. On March 7th, high-precision long-range weapons disabled the airfield of the Air Force of Ukraine in Ozernoe near Zhytomyr. Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down 2 MiG-29s and 1 Su-27 of the Ukrainian Air Force in the air. Also disabled were: two Ukrainian batteries of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system, 3 Buk M-1 self-propelled mounts, 4 command posts, 2 radar stations, 9 ammunition depots and 11 areas of concentration of equipment and military hardware.
 
From February 24th, 2022 totally 2,482 military facilities of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.
 
Among them: 87 command posts and communication centers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, 124 BMD S-300, Buk M-1 and Osa AAD systems, as well as 79 radar stations. Destroyed were: 866 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 91 multiple rocket launch systems, 317 field artillery and mortars, 634 units of special military vehicles, 81 unmanned aerial vehicles.
 
Nearly 25 percent of the Ukrainian territory has been liberated from ultra-nationalists.
 
 
 
 
Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 151. Lavrov clarified Russian stance on four referenda

 

October 6, 2022

1. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov addressed the Senate on referenda

(October 4)

[Speaker] Ms Matviyenko, Senators,

As per the instructions of President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, I submit for your consideration the federal laws on the ratification of treaties between the Russian Federation and the Donetsk People’s Republic, Lugansk People’s Republic, Zaporozhye Region and Kherson Region on their accession to the Russian Federation and on the establishment of new constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

You know the contents of these draft laws very well. During their drafting, the President of Russia held the necessary consultations, including with the Federation Council. The Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation issued its opinion the day before yesterday. The State Duma ratified the laws yesterday.

These documents clearly set out the procedure for the integration of four independent states into Russia and guarantee the rights of their people as citizens of the Russian Federation in all areas, including language, culture, traditions, social protection and economic development.

The decisions on the integration of the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics and the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions into the Russian Federation are based on the free expression of will by their people made during the referendums on September 23-27, 2022. The people of these territories were able to express their will independently and freely, which has been confirmed by numerous observers, including international ones. The citizens of these republics and regions made a conscious choice based on the right to self-determination.

This is fully in keeping with the principle of equality and self-determination  enshrined in the UN Charter, the 1970 Declaration On Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Cooperation among States in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations and many other documents. The abovementioned Declaration, which was unanimously adopted at the UN General Assembly, reads: “Every State has the duty to refrain from any forcible action that deprives peoples … of their right to self-determination and freedom and independence.” In accordance with the Declaration, peoples can resist such forcible action and are entitled to seek and receive the support of the international community.

A great deal is being said today publicly that the principle of territorial integrity, also enshrined in the UN Charter, has an absolute priority over the right to self-determination. In this connection, I would like to draw the attention of those who may be interested that the Declaration of the UN General Assembly (1970) contains a clear answer to the proponents of this view. The Declaration seals the duty of states to respect the territorial integrity of states “conducting themselves in compliance with the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples… and thus possessed of a government representing the whole people belonging to the territory.”

There is no need to prove that the Kiev regime does not meet the said criteria and has for years grossly and massively violated the abovementioned UN requirements. It has long become something foreign and hostile to all residents of Ukraine, who cannot imagine living their lives without feeling part of the Russian civilisation and whom President Zelensky urged to “beat it to Russia” a year ago. It is utterly clear that this regime does not and cannot represent millions of citizens against whom it has unleashed a war.

The radical nationalists who seized power in Ukraine following a government coup in February 2014 have conducted a policy of suppression with regard to Ukraine’s Russians and Russian speakers throughout the subsequent period. They have branded as terrorists the residents of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, who refused to recognize the criminal Maidan authorities. The Armed Forces of Ukraine and neo-Nazi battalions were taking cruel vengeance on the people of Donbass by shelling their cities and villages practically every day, killing and crippling people, destroying civilian infrastructure, and trying to stifle them with an inhuman blockade.

Kiev openly derailed the Minsk Agreements as approved by the UN Security Council, and was not held accountable for this. In the meantime, the West was cynically looking the other way as if not noticing the Ukrainian radicals’ actions meant to solve the “problem of Donbass” by force – Plan B, as they called it. Moreover, the West was actually encouraging them to implement this scenario. In his speech in the Kremlin on September 30, President of Russia Vladimir Putin described in detail the true intentions harboured by the United States and its satellites with regard to using the Zelensky regime to wage war against Russia.

Ukraine itself has in fact turned into an aggressive totalitarian state that approves discriminatory laws, carries out forced Ukrainisation, encourages Russophobia, and violates language, educational, cultural and other human rights on a large scale. Supported by the authorities, the Ukrainian legislature adopts laws disseminating the ideology of Nazism and ethnic and religious intolerance. Ukrainian officials are no longer ashamed of their neo-Nazi essence and openly urge all and sundry to kill Russians the world over.

Russia could not but come to the rescue of the long-suffering people of Donbass. Nor can it fail to defend the residents of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions from this inhuman regime.

The decisions taken at the referendums in the two republics and the two regions are a response to neo-Nazi Ukraine’s atrocities and the fulfilment of the people’s long-standing aspiration to reunite with their historical homeland.

On behalf of the President of the Russian Federation, I ask the Federation Council to approve the abovementioned laws, Lavrov prpposed.

2. Press release on the filing of Russia’s written objections to the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice in the case initiated by Kiev in February 2022 under the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (5 October 2022)

On October 3, the Russian Federation submitted to the International Court of Justice its written objections to the jurisdiction of the court to consider the merits of the claim filed by Kiev in February 2022 against our country under the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

It is clearly and unambiguously explained in the document that Kiev's claims are actually limited to challenging the legality of the special military operation in accordance with the United Nations Charter and the status of the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics. The Convention has nothing to do with these matters.

The Russian side emphasised that the Ukrainian side has again abused the procedural right to appeal to the International Court of Justice. In particular, it chose the 1948 Convention as the basis for its claim because it is the only international treaty to which both Russia and Ukraine are parties that allows recourse to the Court and does not require the mandatory pre-trial stage of dispute settlement.

Russia's objections also cite the real genesis of the armed conflict in Ukraine, which was initiated by Kiev against Donbass in 2014.

3. Russian MFA response to UN Secretary-General statement on referenda

Question: On September 29, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres went on record with a very tough statement describing the referendums in Donbass and the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions as an “annexation.”  Has he offered any additional public explanations after that?

MFA official spokesperson:

First of all, a Secretary-General can have no independent “position,” especially on territorial issues. Under the UN Charter, this office implies the performance of functions of the top UN administrative official. This has been clearly indicated in the comments of the Russian Permanent Mission to the United Nations and by the Foreign Ministry spokesperson.

During his briefing on October 5, Spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General Stephane Dujarric, a person who speaks on behalf of Mr Guterres, seemed to be trying to find an excuse.  But, in truth, we heard nothing new or reassuring.  The Secretariat has once again reaffirmed its biased and unprincipled approach to the Ukrainian issue. We are sure that this situation must be changed. It is not to the advantage of the UN Secretariat or its head.

To believe the UN official, Mr Guterres made his September 29 statements based on the General Assembly’s decisions. Obviously, he meant Resolution 68/262, which was put to the vote in March 2014 and the subsequent anti-Russia decisions approved by the 11th special session of the UN General Assembly, which were also supported by far from all member states of the United Nations.

Paradoxically, the Secretariat representatives, while belabouring the General Assembly’s non-consensus decisions, forget about the documents that were unanimously approved by the UN Security Council. One such document was Security Council Resolution 2202 approving the Package of Measures for the implementation of the Minsk Agreements. For seven years, Kiev openly violated its provisions. Specifically, both Petr Poroshenko and Vladimir Zelensky had no scruples about saying in public that it was null and void. We waited in vain for a denunciatory response from the UN Secretariat, something that prompts the conclusion that the UN Secretariat is highly selective about implementing the member states’ decisions.

The Secretariat representatives “forget” an important point, while speaking about the need to preserve Ukraine’ territorial integrity and basing themselves on some provisions of the UN Charter and the 1970 Declaration on Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Cooperation among States in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations. The latter document states clearly that the above principle is only applicable to states “possessed of a government representing the whole people belonging to the territory without distinction as to race, creed or colour.” It is obvious that the Kiev authorities do not answer the description. Moreover, “Every State has the duty to refrain from any forcible action which deprives peoples referred to above in the elaboration of the present principle of their right to self-determination and freedom and independence.”  I think there is no need to remind everyone of the seven-year-long shelling of Donbass.

On the whole, there are no “turning points” in the Secretariat’s rhetoric. The only thing they proved able to do was to polish slightly the Russophobic statements by the most rabid supporters of the Kiev regime.

4. Russian MFA: The USA should admit its direct involvement in the Ukrainian affairs

It is time for the US State Department to admit its involvement in the situation in Ukraine, from regime change to motives for blowing up gas pipelines, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said at a briefing on October 6. "It's time for Washington to speak loudly, frankly and clearly about its true involvement in the situation in Ukraine, from regime change to their motives for destroying gas pipelines," it was said

As the diplomat noted, the Russian Foreign Ministry "has never heard a statement from official Washington that they do not support or in any way criticize the Kiev regime for all the horror it has done here over the years." "Has that happened! Even once, even one statement about this?" she pointed out, "Sometimes they might have mumbled somewhere in the State Department that they were either not following the situation, or they were, and that was it. There were no condemnations, no direct accusations." There is no point in "picking out individual elements of what was done under the direct supervision or participation of American intelligence services and what was not."

"Washington has guided, protected and led the Kiev regime for many years. This is a question of shared responsibility for what the US has done to this country and to the region as a whole," MFA spokesperson concluded.

5. Elon Musk feuds with US Senator over Ukraine

Many in Eastern Ukraine would “prefer Russia,” Tesla CEO told Lindsey Graham

Russians make up the majority in some territories in Eastern Ukraine, and they would like to be a part of Russia, Tesla and Space X CEO Elon Musk said on October 6, responding to criticism by US Senator Lindsey Graham of his stance on the conflict.

Musk feuds with US Senator over Ukraine

Graham had castigated Musk for not understanding “the facts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine” after the billionaire presented a peace plan to end hostilities between Moscow and Kiev. Musk’s latest comments come after he proposed a plan to end the Ukraine conflict, suggesting that Moscow should redo referenda of the annexed regions under UN supervision while Kiev would commit to neutrality and drop its claim to Crimea, which overwhelmingly voted to join Russia in 2014.

Mask’s peace plan was met amongst Russian public both in positive and negative ways.

In a positive way Russian citizens noted his recognition of Crimea as the Russian territory, and his remarks that Crimea should enjoy the right to use was from Dnepr River that was blocked by Kiev illegally by a dam. On the other hand, Russian citizens reminded Mask that citizens in Donbass have already arranged two separate referenda – in 2014 and 2022 – were they by vast majority have voted to join Russia. Russian citizens were unhappy that Mask has allocated $ 80 mln for Ukraine, but zero dollars to Russia, and supplied Ukrainian Army with his hi-tech communication devices that have been found at the Azovstal steel mill.

According to Musk, in any given conflict region, it is the people who should decide which country they want to live in. “Most of Ukraine unequivocally wants to be part of Ukraine, but some eastern portions have Russian majorities and prefer Russia,” he said.

Musk posted a map with results of the 2012 parliamentary election in Ukraine that took place two years prior to a coup in Kiev. It showed that large swathes of eastern and southern Ukraine supported the pro-Russia Party of Regions. “Obviously, not everyone who voted for the pro-Russia party wanted to join Russia, but it would also be inaccurate to say that none did,” he explained.

His stance sparked outcry among several Ukrainian officials, with Kiev’s outgoing unpolite and rude ambassador to Berlin Andrey Melnik going as far as to tell Musk to “f**k off.” President Vladimir Zelensky reacted in a more reserved manner by holding a poll, asking his followers on Twitter “which Elon Musk” they “like more”: the one “who supports Ukraine,” or the one “who supports Russia”. Initially, the majority of respondents preferred to support Russia.

6. Peace in Ukraine possible if Biden Administration halts military aid - ex-US Senator

Chances for peace between Russia and Ukraine are possible only when the USA stops sending billions of dollars in weapons to Kiev, former Virginia State Senator Richard Black said.

Last week, the United States pledged an additional $1.1 billion in security assistance to Ukraine, including the provision of 18 new HIMARS systems.


The Pentagon said the US has now committed nearly $17 billion in military aid to Ukraine since January 2021. Such weapons kill many Ukrainians and Russians


"I think that there may be some chance for peace when people begin to realize that we [the United States] need to stop sending money for weapons across the globe," Black noted. "I think the West’s determination was that the war should continue, regardless of how many Ukrainians died in the process. And certainly, you know, not caring how many Russians died in the process."

The overspending that has been taking place in the West, he added, has destabilized the currency markets and caused all sorts of economic dislocations. Black said the US needs to start taking care of things back home rather than sending military aid, especially given the economy is becoming shakier by the day.

7. AFU gangsterism against civilians goes on ….

Without any desire to recognize the results of September 2022 four referenda and the fact that four territories joined Russia, Kiev incited by the USA, NATO and EU continues to shell nowadays Russian territory by heavy weapons, each day attacking 10-15 residential areas per day, as well as Zaporozhye NPP that became Russian property after Zaporozhye Region joined Russia. E.g. on October 5 the plant was shelled 46 times with the aim to destroy it.  During last two days several civilians have been killed and a dozen have been injured in various settlements on newly acceded territories.

Kiev has announced plans to overflood ZNPP completely by the Dnepr River by exploding the dam built in the upper stream of the river the largest in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces confessed [on this video; link is: https://en.news-front.info/2022/10/05/once-in-a-village-shoot-everyone-this-was-the-order-given-to-ukrainian-soldiers-of-the-25th-afu-brigade-during-one-of-the-battles/ ] that they killed civilians, even women and children, and threw grenades into cellars where people were hiding in the basements.

“Once in the village – shoot everyone,” was the order given to Ukrainian soldiers from the 25th AFU Brigade during one of the battles. According to their own words, they killed civilians, even women and children, and threw grenades into cellars where people were hiding.

But they decided to talk about these atrocities only because their commanders then left them on the front line and ordered them to finish off the wounded so as not to organize evacuation.

“When we were in the village, people were asking for evacuation, asking for help, but they were brutally shot. Our guys were shooting three hundred people,” said an AFU soldier.

8. Situation on the battlefield

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.

Up to 3 battalion tactical groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or AFU made an unsuccessful attempt to resume their offensive towards Pershotravnevoye, Kislovka and Berestovoye at Kupyansk direction. Decisive action of Russian forces has resulted in repelling all the attacks. Up to 120 servicemen of AFU 5 tanks, 12 armoured combat vehicles and 14 motor vehicles have been eliminated.

Kiev regime's military units have conducted no active operations at Krasny Liman direction.

2 Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been eliminated by Russian artillery fire near Petrovskoye (Kharkov Region, Russia). The attack has resulted in the elimination of 25 militants and 2 pickups with large-calibre machine guns mounted.

Offensive of the allied forces has resulted in the liberation of Zaytsevo (DPR, Russia) at Artyomovsk direction. The offensive has resulted in the elimination of over 120 personnel from 58th Mechanised Infantry and 128th Mountain Assault Brigades of the AFU, as well as 3 infantry combat vehicles.

Attacks launched by army aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces near Novy Komar (DPR) have resulted in the elimination of up to 60 servicemen from 56th Mechanised Infantry Brigade of the AFU, 2 tanks and 5 motor vehicles.

4 enemy battalion tactical groups made numerous attempts to break through the defence of Russian forces towards Dudchany, Sukhanovo, Sadok, Bruskinskoye at Andreyevka-Krivoy Rog direction.

The enemy has been driven from the defence line of Russian forces. Over 100 Ukrainian personnel, 6 tanks, 8 armoured combat vehicles and 9 motor vehicles have been eliminated.

Missile and air defence attacks launched by Russian Aerospace Forces at the provisional bases of 35th Marine Brigade of the AFU near Davydov Brod (Kherson region), 46yh Airmobile Brigade of the AFU near Murakhovka (Nikolayev Region), 60th Infantry Brigade near Trifonovka and Novaya Kamenka (Kherson Region, Russia) have resulted in the elimination of over 280 Ukrainian personnel and 9 units of military equipment.

High-precision missile attacks of Russian Aerospace Forces near Velikoye Artakovo (Nikolayev Region), Novogrigorovka and Belaya Krinitsa (KhersonRregion) have resulted in the destruction of 3 pontoon crossings of the AFU over Ingulets river.


Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised 9 AFU command posts, 63 artillery units at their firing positions,

173 manpower and military equipment concentration areas


4 missile, artillery armament and munitions depots have been destroyed near Seversk and Vodyanoye (DPR), as well as near Zaporozhye. Within the counter-battery warfare, 2 Ukrainian Grad MLRS batteries have been neutralised by missile attacks near Dvurechnaya (Kharkov Region) and Karpovka (DPR).

Fighter aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces have shot down 2 airplanes of Ukrainian Air Force: 1 MiG-29 near Novogrodovka and 1 Su-24 near Sviridonovka (DPR).

Air defence facilities have destroyed 9 Ukrainian UAVs near Chervonoarmeyskoye, Dmitriyenko, Charivnoye (Kherson Region), Pokrovskoye, Poltava, Troitskoye (Lugansk People's Republic, Russia), Orlinskoye and Mospino (DPR).

Moreover, 3 projectiles launched by Olkha MLRS have been shot down in air near Velikaya Novosyolka (DPR).

In total, 315 airplanes and 157 helicopters, 2,160 unmanned aerial vehicles, 379 air defence missile systems, 5,412 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 862 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 3,452 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 6,316 special military vehicles have been destroyed during the Special Military Operation.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

 

 

 

Report # 152. Kiev has blown up a truck with HE on the Crimean Bridge

October 8, 2022

The blast on Europe’s longest 19-km bridge called Crimean or sometimes Kerch Bridge connecting Crimea with the mainland Russia occurred at around 6 AM local time on October 8.

It caused to collapse of two bridge spans [see photo] of its automobile road. Russia’s National Anti-Terrorism Committee said that a truck blew up as it was traveling along the bridge from Crimea to Russia.

"Today, at 6:07am, a truck was blown up on the motorway section of the Crimean Bridge from the Taman Peninsula, which caught fire seven fuel tanks of a train travelling to the Crimean Peninsula. Two motorway sections of the bridge have partially collapsed," the report says. Three persons were killed travelling nearby.

It looks like that the truck has been packed with high explosives. The driver has been identified.

The fire has been extinguished very quickly – by 10:30 AM. A repair activity on the bridge will start on October 8. The Crimean authorities said that ferry service would be provided while the bridge is being repaired. Four sea ferries are to be used.

Crimean head Sergey Aksenov said that the ferry crossing in Crimea is ready for launch and will start working from October 8. He added that, according to what one can see, one motorway section of the Crimean bridge - from Kerch to Russian - is intact. The movement of ships in the Kerch Strait did not stop, the Russian Federal Agency for Sea and Inland Water Transport (Rosmorrechflot) announced.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has instructed to create a Government Commission to investigate the case.

Who has done it?

An aide to President Vladimir Zelensky, Mikhail Podoliak, warned on Twitter earlier that what happened at the bridge was “just the beginning.” Ukrainian MoD in a written form has also taken up Kiev’s responsibility for the terrorist attack against the bridge.  Ukrainian officials close to Zelensky and his predecessors many tines threatened to destroy the Crimean Bridge.


COMMENT:

Such terrorist attack took place not because of barbarism of the inhuman Kiev’s regime only. It happened also due to constant incitement of Zelensky by NATO/EU, amid dead silence from the UNO and the OSCE


Russia can deliver a more sophisticated military blow on Ukraine itself and on the battlefield in particular, because such provocative action means the escalation of hostile Ukrainian activity on the Russian territory, damaging and disrupting key transport infrastructure of the federal importance used to deliver essential foodstuff, medical equipment, construction materials, transport fuel and lubricants, etc to a great number of people; gradually expanding it to more and more areas on its territory and endangering the lives of more and more civilians people. Such Ukrainian gangsterism initiated and sponsored by current Ukrainian leaders in also designed and implemented to hamper a free movement of travelers to Crimea and back to the mainland Russia, including a lot of tourists and enthusiasts who desire to see the ancient city of Khersones located in Crimea – the initial birthplace of Christianity in Russia.

The current Russians are other nations living in the vast and mighty Great Russian Federation are fully committed to defend all its territory and all its facilities and material assets in any place and at any time.

Moscow has a full and undeniable right to defend such critical infrastructure of strategic importance with all means it has at its disposal nowadays and it would have at its discretion. The Russian Armed Forces can use such gangsterism as a pretext to attack a number of Ukrainian facilities also related to critical infrastructure. Such powerful response can be done any time and in any place on Ukrainian territory by using the word of a famous Russian warrior named Duke Alexander Nevsky who after defeating the knights of the Teutonic Order who wished to conquer a European part of Russia in the 13th century exclaimed eloquently: “Those who will come to us with swords, will perish with the help of swords. The Russian land has relied and will rely on such a notion”.

Those who has not realized it – be them in Kiev or Washington or London, etc, will keep deep-seated sorrow in their memory for many decades to come.

                                                                                                    

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 16. Classified ukrainian documents specified plans to attack Donbass in march 2022

March 9th, 2022

1. Classified Ukrainian instructions

Russia's Ministry of Defence has made public documents confirming preparation by Kiev authorities of an offensive operation in Donbass scheduled for March 2022 (see slides attached below).

The release includes images of six pages. Written in the Ukrainian language and bearing the traits of official paperwork, they appear to be classified papers of the Ukrainian National Guard.

2. Ukrainians flee en masse as major cities encircled

Ukrainian ultra-nazi formations continued to prevent too many Ukrainians trapped in a number of engulfed cities to leave them and escape abroad. Around 5 mln persons wish to go to the Western Europe and more than 2 mln civilians prefer to move into Russia and Belarus. The other explanation of civilians’ blockade is that president Zelensky ordered total mobilization of male Ukrainians from 18 to 60 years old.

3. Attacks on ChNPP

Ukrainian nationalist forces attacked a substation and the power lines which provide the Chernobyl nuclear power plant (NPP) with electricity, Russian deputy defence minister Nikolai Pankov said. The Ukrainian side avoids the organization of repair and restoration work. The International Atomic Energy Agency sought to ease fears by indicating in a pair of tweets that it sees "no critical impact on safety" at the plant despite the loss of power. It added that heat load of spent fuel storage pool and volume of cooling water at this NPP is sufficient for effective heat removal without need for electrical supply. Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko assured that the mothballed plant, which produces no power of its own, has the capability to maintain power independently using onsite diesel generators.

4. Military operation is underway

During March 9th interceptor-bombers of the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed 49 military targets. Among them: 2 command posts, 6 radar stations, 4 ammunition and fuel depots and 37 sites containing weapons and military equipment.

From February 24th, 2022 total 2786 military facilities in Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.

Destroyed were: 953 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 101 multiple rocket launch systems, 351 field artillery and mortars, 718 special military vehicles, 93 unmanned aerial vehicles.

 Elimination of the Ukrainian Air Force. By the beginning of the special operation, the Ukrainian armed forces had up to 250 active combat aircraft and helicopters. The Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed 89 combat aircraft and 57 helicopters on the ground and in the air. Part of the Ukrainian aircraft flew to Romania and does not participate in hostilities. 90 percent of the Ukrainian military airfields have been disabled. There are no trained Ukrainian pilots of the first and second class left.

 Destruction of the Ukrainian air defense systems. During the special operation, the Russian Armed Forces destroyed 137 S-300, Buk M-1 and S-125 anti-aircraft missile systems. This is more than 90 percent of the long-range and medium-range anti-aircraft missile systems in service. 81 Ukrainian air defence radar stations were destroyed. This led to the loss of combat control of aviation and air defence of Ukraine. At present, the air defence system is incapable of providing significant countermeasures to Russian aircraft.

 

 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 173. New facts on the US violation of the BWC

 

November 28, 2022

The Ninth Review Conference of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) will take place in Geneva, Switzerland, from 28 November to 16 December 2022. Such sessions are organised every five years in accordance with Article 12 of the Convention to examine the present state of the BWC, compliance challenges, and to review scientific and technological advancements having dual-use potential.

The Consultative Meeting was convened on the initiative of the Russian Federation in September 2022. Russia also addressed the concerns of BWC breaches by Ukraine and the USA to the UN Security Council in October, the same year.

Western nations actively hindered the Security Council decision on an international probe into the operations of US biolaboratories in Ukraine. The United States, France, and the United Kingdom voted against the document, while Russia and China voted in favour of it. Other nations, including India, Mexico, and Norway (NATO member), abstained from voting.

Despite the fact that the resolution did not get the necessary number of votes, and the Security Council did not trigger the investigative mechanism, the voting results illustrate that the United States’ military-biological actions in Ukraine arouse concerns among even its closest friends.

On October 18, the White House released a new Biodefence Strategy (USBS), with a budget of $88 bln, including $17 bln in the first year.

The document states that it is a vital interest of the United States to manage the risk of biological incidents, and that the response to their occurrence would be harsh and rapid. The United States is attempting to meddle in the domestic affairs of other countries once more. So, the USBS mentioned  to  take steps to mitigate those risks, regardless of whether they originate in the United States or abroad.

One of the Strategy’s primary objectives is to develop ways of individual and collective biological protection for US military personnel in various theaters of military operations. The goal is to continue research on the agents that cause extremely deadly infectious illnesses that are endemic to certain areas.

To avoid charges of military-biological activity at the Pentagon, formal engagement of US military biologists in international initiatives will be limited through increased involvement of civil institutions as Department of Defense contractors.

As part of the Strategy, the United States seeks to strengthen worldwide control over the global biological environment and reserves the right to perform ‘dual-use’ research, including research conducted outside of national boundaries.

One more proof

Another strategic planning document is the updated Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) strategy through 2027, which explicitly acknowledges its dual role. It is to not only provide protection, but also combat support to military units. According to the strategy, one of DTRA's priority tasks is to ensure the military superiority of the US armed forces over the enemy.

At the same time, DTRA's activities are carefully concealed, including from the Americans themselves. Thus, on 10 November, a 345-page document concerning the financing of Black & Veatch and its activities in Ukraine was obtained at the request of the non-profit organisation named Judicial Watch.

It should be noted that dozens of pages of the Pentagon papers have been censored, and information concerning contractors and research results gained in Ukraine has been totally removed.

The papers disclosed once again indicate Kiev-Washington cooperation, as well as attempts to create pathogen control in Ukrainian laboratories by installing the PACS system, portions of which were provided to Ukraine under the title US Government property.

This corresponds to the materials Russia has at its disposal, which include the project registration card and contract documents approved by the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy.

As previously reported, the PACS system enables the Pentagon to track the location and use of highly dangerous pathogens in laboratories around the world in real time, as well as access the results of ethically and legally ambiguous experiments.

One example of such research is work being done in the United States to improve the pathogenic qualities of the pathogen COVID-19.


In October 2022, for example, Boston University developed a synthetic coronavirus pathogen based on the Omicron strain and the original 'Wuhan' variety. The modified virus acquired by the Americans killed 80% of infected model animals, causing abnormal neurological signs and significant lung damage. Antibody testing revealed an 11-fold decline in their capacity to neutralize the new virus, as well as the ineffectiveness of current vaccinations.


Despite the fact that the US Department of Health and Human Services has decided to investigate the university’s management, the 'Boston experiment' highlights the lack of government oversight of genetic engineering and synthetic biology research in the USA. Despite the substantial biological dangers, the research was conducted with US government money and without the necessary authorisation from the national biosafety agency.

US research into the pathogenic properties of microorganisms is forcing US administration officials in charge of countering biological threats to reconsider their statements.

One of them is former National Security Adviser John Bolton. Take note of Mr. Bolton’s September 2000 report Rebuilding America’s Defenses. According to the document, quote: ‘... advanced forms of biological warfare that can “target” specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool.’

In 2001, Bolton led the US delegation to the BWC's Fifth Review Conference. As a result of the consultations, the US side completely halted work on the verification mechanism and rejected the proposed processes for verifying potential biological weapons storage sites, citing that it threatened their national interests.

In early November, the US journal The Intercept conducted an examination of National Institutes of Health data connected to safety breaches in biological laboratories in the US in line with the US Federal Freedom of Information Act. Over the last 18 years, more than 5,500 pages of incident reports were evaluated.

It has been concluded that research conducted in high-security laboratories (BSL-3 and BSL-4) at the universities of Washington, Minnesota, and Illinois resulted in internal laboratory infections and increased the risk of further spread of genetically modified viral fever pathogens, severe acute respiratory syndrome, highly pathogenic avian influenza, and other infections. Numerous breaches of basic pathogen handling rules have been documented, as well as attempts by biolaboratory management to conceal the facts of accidents and breakdowns of filter-ventilation systems and protective equipment.

Violation of the rules

Here are just a few of them.

On 2 September 2011, a laboratory incident occurred at the US National Institutes of Health in New York. After being bitten by a laboratory animal infected with a recombinant influenza virus, a researcher was sent home to be quarantined without supervision in the most populous city in the United States.

Between April 2013 and March 2014, cases of laboratory animals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome escaped from zoned premises at the University of North Carolina.

In September 2016, while conducting experiments on animals infected with a recombinant strain of the Chikungunya virus, a graduate student at the University of Washington punctured her glove. In a gross violation of safety regulations, the employee only washed her hands, removed her protective gear and left the laboratory without telling anyone about the incident or taking steps to isolate herself. Four days later, she was diagnosed with an acute form of the disease.


In total, more than two hundred such incidents have been reported. The official statistics include only a small proportion of the incidents and that the real situation is much worse.


The system for controlling safety violations in the US biolaboratories is decentralised and covers only facilities that receive federal funding. There is little or no oversight of private laboratories, even though they conduct research with highly dangerous pathogens. The lack of uniform standards for such facilities creates risks of bypassing the BWC and grossly violating biosafety requirements.

The high risk of accidents in US biolaboratories is one of the reasons for their withdrawal from national jurisdiction and transfer to the territory of third countries, including Ukraine and other post-Soviet states. This explains the worsening of the epidemic situation in their locations and the emergence of diseases and their vectors that are not typical of these regions.

During the Special Military Operation launched in response of Ukrainian aggression started 10 days before that – exactly on February 14, 2022 – , it became known that the Pentagon's bioweapons programmes in Ukraine were being carried out in violation of Articles 1 and 4 of the BWC. An examination of papers discovered in Ukrainian biolaboratories provides evidence that biological weapons components were being produced in close proximity to Russian borders.

This is confirmed by the work contracts, approved registration cards, reporting documents of the Pentagon’s contractors: Black & Veatch, Metabiota, CH2M-HILL.

The nomenclature of pathogens that were studied in the framework of UP and TAP Ukrainian projects had nothing to do with the problems relevant to public health in Ukraine. Moreover, the main accent was made on the study of naturally focal and especially dangerous infections, which are regarded as potential biological weapons agents. For example, the objective of the TAP-2 project was to study actinobacillus mallei, cases of which have never been recorded in Ukraine.

The US DoD-controlled testing of infectious disease agents and poisonous chemicals on Ukrainian military members and the mentally ill, two of the most vulnerable groups of population, is of special concern.

In its previous reports Russian MoD referenced a ruling of the Centre for Public Health of Ukraine's Ethics Committee, dated 12 June 2019, for conducting research with unknown hazards to participants' lives and health. Despite the fact that the research programme only included standard blood sampling, the document requires reporting “...minor incidents involving volunteers to the US bioethics committee within 72 hours of the incident, and serious incidents, including subject death, within 24 hours of the incident”.


Despite their evident military-biological focus, the US and Ukraine remain deliberately discreet regarding collaborative BWC reporting actions.


The world community has been facing new threats since 2016, the date of the Eighth Review Conference, including pandemic spread of human and animal infections (COVID-19, monkeypox, African swine fever), risks posed by modern advances in biotechnology and synthetic biology, and military and biological activities by the Pentagon in various parts of the world.

Russian proposals

The Russian Federation has repeatedly pointed to evidence that the United States and its allies are conducting dual-use programs outside their national borders, including through the operation of bio-laboratories under their control and so-called shared-use laboratories funded by these States’ military departments or organisations affiliated with them.

Many questions concerning the true goals of the Pentagon's research programs have been raised in numerous international venues, but have so far gone unanswered. We want to return to them during the Ninth Review Conference of the BWC States Parties.

In response to new challenges and dangers, the Russian Federation suggests the following:


Firstly, to reopen discussions for a legally binding Protocol to the BWC that contains lists of viruses, poisons, and specialised equipment, takes into account contemporary biological research and technology, and includes an effective verification regime.

Secondly, confidence-building methods should be supplemented with information about biological defence research and development outside of national boundaries, as well as animal vaccine production facilities.

And finally, to establish a scientific Advisory Committee with broad geographical representation and equal rights for participants to evaluate advances in science and technology related to the Convention.


The actual implementation of these ideas will increase the openness of national biological programmes and the compliance of all States Parties with the provisions of the BWC.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

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Report # 175. Russia prefers to send half of its reservists to the SMO

December, 7, 2022

1. Putin specified current location of the mobilized personnel

On December 7 Russian President Vladimir Putin made some remarks at meeting of the Council for Civil Society and Human Rights – a consultative body to the head of state, tasked with assisting him in guaranteeing and protecting human rights and freedoms in Russia.


The President stressed that half of the 300,000 recently mobilized men or 150,000 are in the zone of the Special Miliary Operation, and while the rest are still undergoing training at firing ranges and special training centers of the Defense Ministry and occupy second and third lines of defense. In this regard, as the Russian leader pointed out that the talks about additional mobilization in the country are pointless.


The partial mobilization began in the country with a presidential decree in late September, with the Defense Ministry later announcing its call-up 300,000 reservists. On October 31, the Russian president said that the mobilization is over.

2. Russian offensive operation continues

Russian Minister of Defence, General of the Army Sergei Shoigu made some remarks at the special teleconference with the leadership of the Russian Armed Forces on December 6.

The Russian Armed Forces are launching massive, long-range, precision-guided strikes against the military administration, defence industry complex, and related facilities to crush Ukraine's military potential. Enemy losses in November amounted to over 8,300 troops, five aircraft, ten helicopters, 149 tanks, and over 300 armoured fighting vehicles.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces' troops and equipment were severely damaged in Lugansk-Donetsk and South Donetsk directions. The Russian Armed Forces will continue to protect critical facilities in the liberated territories.

Russian troops recently liberated Maiorsk, Pavlovka, Opytnoye, Andreevka, Belogorovka Yuzhnaya and Kurdyumovka in Donbass.

Russia's troops are taking all measures to ensure the safety of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant or ZNPP. The Kiev regime, for its part, is attempting to create a nuclear disaster by deliberately shelling the site.


The Armed Forces of Ukraine have or AFU fired 33 large-calibre shells at the station in the last two weeks alone. Russian Air Defence systems intercept most of Ukraine's weapons.


However, some of them have an impact on infrastructure that are critical to the safe running of a nuclear power station. Russia classifies these Ukrainian attacks as nuclear terrorism.

The IAEA headed by Rafael Grossi still believes that ZNPP is shelled by Russia, thought the station is located at the Russian territory since October 5, 2022. He failed to present any evidence of the alleged ‘Russian attacks’ against the station.

3. In what way ZNPP nuclear security and physical safety can be guaranteed?

1. Russia will guarantee full nuclear security and physical safety for ZNPP by its own Armed Forces and own operators on the site.

2. Russia will never withdraw its Armed Forces and National Guard units from ZNPP and other territory related to Zaporozhye Region controlled by it.

3. Russia demands that the UNO and IAEA must demand from Ukraine full cessation of shelling and provocations against ZNPP and the city of Energodar.

4.Ukraine should create a demilitarized zone on its controlled territory with the radius of 400 km deep into its territory.

5. Russia will deliver a mighty blow on Ukraine if it attempts to violate such zone and continues to blackmail the world community by nuclear weapons or by radioactive contamination of Europe.

6. Russia reserves the right to destroy any Ukrainian industrial assets and research facilities if Ukraine resorts to any attempt to create ‘a dirty nuclear bomb’ or any radioactive device.

4. Russian MoD made a statement on Ukrainian drone attacks

On the morning of December 5, the Kiev regime attempted to attack by Soviet-made UAVs the military airfields at Dyagilevo in the Ryazan Region and Engels in the Saratov Region in an effort to disable Russian long-range aircraft. The maximum range from Ukrainian-Russian border was around 650 km.

Russian air defence forces intercepted the Ukrainian UAVs as they were flying at a low altitude. The crash and explosion of the wreckage on the Russian airfields caused minor damage to the hull armour of the two airplanes.

Three Russian maintenance personnel on the airfield suffered fatal injuries. Another four servicemen wounded were taken to medical facilities where they were given all the necessary medical care.

Despite attempts by the Kiev regime to disrupt the combat operations of Russian Long-Range Aviation by an act of terrorism, today at around 3 pm (Moscow time) the command and control system and related defense complex facilities, communication hubs, power plants, and military units of Ukraine were struck with high-precision long-range air and sea-based weapons.

The objective of the strike has been achieved. All of the designated 17 targets were engaged.


The strike disrupted the transfer by rail of Ukrainian military reserves, foreign weapons, military equipment and ammunition to the areas of combat operations.


5. EU member says it can no longer accept Ukrainian refugees

People arriving in Estonia will be urged to move on to Finland, Prime Minister Kallas has said. Estonia will not be able to handle a possible new influx of refugees from Ukraine and expects other EU nations, such as Finland, to accommodate them, she announced, by adding that everything has its limit, and once we are no longer able to accept people because we ran out of housing and jobs, then others will do more. Tallinn already has a tentative agreement with Helsinki on the issue, she stated on December 6 in a radio interview.


Many European nations are lamenting that Ukrainian refugees’ behavior that came to Europe as the result of Ukrainian aggression against Donbass started in 2014 is intolerable.


Many of these people demand special services and VIP treatment and extra ‘humanitarian’ money for themselves, insult Europeans and expand crimes and prostitution. Many of them smuggle weapons to Europe and cultivate ethnic hatred, racism and barbaric neo-nazi ideology that are gradually engulfing the European soil.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 179. Russia will radically improve its Armed Forces

 

December 21,2022

1. Major improvements, including those in the nuclear triad

On December 21, President Vladimir Putin spoke at an expanded meeting of the Defense Ministry Board at the National Defense Management Center where the key areas of Army and Navy development including the Special Military Operation or SMO have been discussed.

The main aim of the Russian geopolitical adversaries has been to “dismember” Russia, Vladimir Putin outlined.

He noted that the military potential and capabilities of almost all major NATO countries are actively used against Russia, and outlined that the respective experience should be studied and taken into account by the Armed Forces and the defense-industrial complex, especially during the SMO. The President expressed confidence that the SMO tasks would undoubtedly be accomplished on all territories of the Russian Federation, including the new territories, and the safe life of all our citizens will be ensured.

The President has emphasized that Russia would continue to maintain and improve combat readiness of the nuclear triad that is the main guarantee of preserving sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country as well as strategic parity and the global balance of power.


Vladimir Putin elaborated that in 2022 the level of modernization in the Strategic Nuclear Forces has already reached over 91 percent.


Russia will continue the development of the hypersonic missile systems that are unique in their characteristics and have no analogues in the world. Russia will continue rearming the Strategic Missile Forces with the modern Avangard system having a hypersonic warhead. In the near future, the Sarmat ICBM will be put on combat duty for the first time. The Yars ICBM will be additionally supplied to the troops. At the beginning of January 2023, the frigate “Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov” will enter combat service with the latest version of Zircon sea-based hypersonic missile systems.

The President underscored: “We don't have any restrictions on funding. The country, the Government give everything the Army asks for, everything.” But he pledged that national economy will not be militarized.

Vladimir Putin asked the Ministry of Defense to be attentive to all civilian initiatives, including taking criticism into account and responding to it correctly and in a timely manner.


The President shared Defense Minister’s proposals to enhance military capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces and their structural improvements expressed below.


2. Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu’s report: major points

In his report Army General Sergey Shoigu also noted that currently, the military capabilities and potential of almost all major NATO countries are being actively used against Russia. In his words, in Ukraine, Russian servicemen are being countered by combined Western forces. The U.S. and its allies are pumping the Kiev regime with weapons, training soldiers, providing intelligence, sending advisers and mercenaries, and waging an information and sanctions war against us.

The Ukrainian leadership is resorting to prohibited methods of confrontation, including terrorist attacks and contract murders, and the firing of heavy weapons at civilians. Western countries are trying to ignore all of this, as well as elements of nuclear blackmail, such as the provocations against the Zaporozhye NPP and the so-called ‘dirty nuclear bomb’ scenario.

Russian forces continue to destroy military targets, launch massive high-precision strikes against Ukrainian military command system, military-industrial complex enterprises and related facilities, including energy ones. The chain of supply of foreign weapons is being destroyed and Ukraine's military potential is being crushed. At the same time, all preventive measures are being taken to prevent civilian losses.


As a result, the Ukrainian Armed Forces or AFU suffered significant losses.

 A substantial portion of the weapons and equipment available at the beginning of the SMO have been destroyed.


To make up for the losses, the United States and NATO countries have multiplied their military aid to the Kiev regime. Twenty-seven countries have already spent $97 billion on arms supplies to Ukraine, much more than what the Americans abandoned in Afghanistan. There are NATO staff officers, artillerymen and other specialists in the combat zone in Ukraine. More than 500 US and NATO spacecraft operate in the interests of AFU, of which more than 70 are military, the rest are dual-capable space vehicles.

The U.S. and its allies spend a great deal of money on information and psychological pressure on Russia and our allies. Russia has fully understood what the supposedly "free Western press" is all about. Thousands of fakes about the events in Ukraine are published daily on command from Washington, according to the same templates. Hundreds of television agencies, tens of thousands of print media outlets, and media resources on social networks and messengers are working for this.

The total silence of the Western media about the war crimes of the Ukrainian military is the height of cynicism. At the same time, the criminal regime in Kyiv and neo-Nazis are being glorified. The terrorist methods of the AFU are presented as legitimate self-defense or presented as the actions of Russian units. Ukrainian nationalists have taken on the role of barrier troops. Every day we receive data on the shooting of AFU servicemen evading from taking part in combat missions.

Recent partial mobilization totaling 300,000 men in Russia has increased the combat capabilities of the troops and intensified combat operations. Russian troops liberated five times the territory that the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics had occupied before February 24, 2022. There were more than 20,000 men enlisted as volunteers as well.

The amount of funds foreseen in 2022, taking into account the additional supply of weapons and equipment, made it possible to increase the number of basic models sent to the Russian troops by 30%, while the number of ammunition for rocket and artillery armament and aircraft means of destruction by 69 to 109%.

Overall, the Russian Armed Forces have met all the targets set for 2022. Their combat capabilities have grown by more than 13%. The target level of maintaining the country's defense capabilities has been achieved.


Russian Defense Minister outlined some measures to strengthen the security of the Russian Federation.


Increase the conscription age from 18 to 21 and raise the upper age limit to 30 for recruitment into the Russian Armed Forces on a phased basis.


In order to guarantee the military security of the Russian Federation, the strength of the Armed Forces must be increased to 1.5 million servicemen, including those serving under contracts, to 695,000 servicemen.


Given NATO's desire to build up its military capabilities near Russia's borders and expand the Alliance to Finland and Sweden, steps need to be taken to create a corresponding group of forces in North Western part of Russia.

Create two interdomain strategic territorial joined groupings of the Armed Forces – the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts.

Continue to improve the composition and structure of the branches of the Armed Forces, increasing the responsibility of the major commands for the preparation and use of military groupings and formations.

Form three motorized rifle divisions, including those as part of combined arms formations in the Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions, as well as an army corps in Karelia.

Seven motorized rifle brigades in the Western, Central and Eastern Military Districts and the Northern Fleet should be transformed into motorized rifle divisions.

Two additional airborne assault divisions should be formed in the Airborne Forces.

For each combined-Armed Forces (Tank) Army, maintain a mixed aviation division and an army aviation brigade, numbering 80-100 combat helicopters.

In addition, to form three directorates in aviation divisions, eight bomber aviation regiments, one fighter aviation regiment, and six brigades of Army aviation.

To create artillery reserves in strategic areas, form five artillery divisions in Military Districts, as well as high-capacity artillery brigades.

In the coastal forces of the Navy there is the need to form five Marines Divisions on the basis of existing Marines brigades.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 18. The humanitarian situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate rapidly

March 13th, 2022

1. The humanitarian situation in Ukraine is getting worse

It continues to deteriorate rapidly, and in some cities it is catastrophic.

Armed formations of nationalists are mining residential areas, destroying bridges, roads, and life support facilities. They create strongholds in residential areas, hospitals, schools, kindergartens. In besieged Mariupol, armed gangs of neo-Nazis staged another so-called "looting raid" on residential buildings, during which, under threat of physical violence, they took the last food, clothing and valuables from civilians. Those who showed the slightest resistance were shot on the spot. In Volnovakha they shelled a maternity hospital by direct tank and MPLS Grad fire before they retreated and exploded a number of its sections. Eight civilians have been found dead at this place (see attached slide).

Many refugee that luckily managed to escape are telling the world the whole truth about this tragedy. They compare these Ukrainian atrocities with those conducted by Nazi Germany during the WWII in Europe.

Russian forces have liberated the settlement of Nikolskoye, where members of the "Aidar" battalion set up an artillery position. At least 300 people, including monks, who had been taken hostage by Ukrainian radicals at Nikolskoye, were freed by the Russian troops unharmed.

Russian President Vladimir Putin called on French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during a telephone conversation with them on March 12th to influence Kiev to force its nationalist battalions to stop committing crimes. Putin namely recalled that these groups have thwarted efforts to evacuate citizens via humanitarian corridors on many occasions. He also cited the numerous incidences of the "flagrant violation" of international humanitarian laws by Ukrainian security forces.

2. Humanitarian corridors

 On March 12th, at 10:00 AM local time Russia again provided humanitarian corridors for the eighth time leading from Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov and Mariupol, along one humanitarian corridor directed to the Russian Federation, and one more through the territories controlled by the Kiev authorities towards the western borders of Ukraine. Of these ten routes the Ukrainian side added one more - in Zhytomyr direction. It was accepted.

However, no notifications of the population in Kiev, Chernigov, Kharkov, Sumy and Mariupol cities were given by the Ukrainian side. On the contrary the nationalists did not stop shooting. They intentionally block people wishing to escape to Russia and Belarus thus depriving the right of refugees to go freely to any place they desire and to find the shortest possible way to find a safer place.

Was it necessary and expedient for the USA and NATO backed by the EU to implant pro-Western presidents in Kiev to get such terrible results?

So far only 9,787 people, including 1,738 children, were evacuated from the dangerous zones of various regions of Ukraine, as well as the Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics, during the day without the participation of the Ukrainian side.

By March 12th, more than 231,000 people have been evacuated to Russia since the beginning of the special military operation. 51,996 of them were children.

The Kiev authorities does not offer humanitarian assistance to the trapped people in need.

On the contrary, Russia delivered totally 1,935 tons of humanitarian cargo to Ukraine, 237 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 22 actions in Kiev, Kharkov, Zaporozhye and Chernigov Regions, as well as in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, during which 264 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were distributed among civilian population of the liberated areas.

3. Russia issues a strong warning to the West

 The ‘mindless’ handover of weapons to Kiev makes arms convoys ‘legitimate targets,’ Moscow said. Supplying Ukraine with Western arms only serves to worsen the ongoing conflict between Moscow and Kiev, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said on Saturday, March 12th, warning that Russian forces could potentially target such deliveries. “It is the US that is the major source of international tension,” he noted, slamming America’s “material support for the criminal regime in Kiev.” He also warned that the “mindless handover” of “dangerous arms” like portable air-defense and anti-tank missiles poses a threat to Western nations themselves. 

Last week, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also expressed concerns over such weapons getting “into the wrong hands” after the conflict ends. Portable air-defense missiles could pose a particular risk to civil aviation in the skies over Ukraine or Europe for years to come, he added. 

President Biden totally allocated $ 1,2 billion for continuation of the existence of ultra-nazi regime in Kiev and for the extermination of Ukrainians.

4. Developments at the battlespace

 Despite slowdown in movement into Ukrainian territory due to the humanitarian factor, Russian Armed Forces continue their drive with the aim to liberate Ukraine and Europe from newly-born Nazism, like they did in 1945 (see attached slide).

According to Russian MoD, during March 12th, Russian Aerospace Forces shot down one Mi-24 helicopter and three unmanned aerial vehicles, including one Bayraktar TB-2 drone of the Ukrainian Air Forces.

Russian operational-tactical piloted and unmanned aviation hit 79 military infrastructure assets of Ukraine, including: 4 command/control and communication centers, two anti-aircraft missile systems, three multiple launch rocket systems (MRLS), one electronic warfare station, 6 ammunition and fuel depots and 54 areas packed with military equipment.

In total, during the operation that began February 24th, 2022 till now 3,687 Ukrainian military facilities have been destroyed and disabled.

Destroyed were: 99 aircraft, 128 unmanned aerial vehicles, 1,194 tanks and APVs, 121 MRLS, 443 field artillery guns and mortars, 991 special military vehicles.

Russian MoD for the first time disclosed the use of a new high-altitude drone capable to destroy ground targets from the altitude of 3 kilometers.

5. Chernobyl and Zaporozhie NPPs under control

 There is still full Ukrainian civil management at them monitored by some Russian experts from Rosatom. Ukrainian security officers have been disarmed and sent back home. Russian troops are now securing the situation around these NPPs. Electricity to the Chernobyl plant is supplied directly from Belarus, because Ukrainian saboteurs exploded its electric supply station.

Russia still remembers when the Chernobyl nuclear disaster took place in 1986 due to a human blunder: Ukrainian operators melted down reactor # 4 due to unauthorized “experiment”. Enhanced radiation level was recorded that year even too far away – at Sellafield NPP, Cumbria, the UK.

Note: all previous, current and future reports were, are and will be prepared upon official information.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

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Report # 187. ‘Korean-scenario’ talks with Kiev are impossible

January 9, 2023

1. Kiev: Russia offered a ‘Korea-style‘ peace deal. No, it is a political fake

Aleksey Danilov, the head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, on January 8 said that Russia wanted to impose a truce that would split Ukrainian lands into two states, similar to how the Korean Peninsula is divided.  "They [Russians] are currently offering us a Korean option. On one side we will have certain Ukrainians, and on the other side we will have different Ukrainians," Danilov said in a TV interview according to Ukrainian news channel TSN.

"I know for certain that one of the options they could offer us is the ‘38th parallel,'" Danilov said. He claimed that Dmitry Kozak, the deputy head of Russia’s Presidential Administration, has been speaking to EU politicians and conveying the message that they are ready for many concessions in order to recognize the status quo and to force Kiev into some kind of truce.

The 1950–53 Korean War ended with a truce that formalized the 38th parallel as the de-facto official border between North Korea and South Korea.

Some Russian experts made critical remarks to Danilov’s allegations. As one of them has put it: “The implementation of this plan would mean one thing. There will be a permanent armed confrontation between Ukraine and Russia, unless there are sane, non-corrupt, and friendly leaders in Kiev who are friendly to their own citizens and to the Russian Federation. If there are "two Ukraines," as there are two Koreas, then the pro-Western part of Ukraine will join NATO, deploy U.S. nuclear and anti-missile weapons, and continue to destabilize Europe and the world as a whole.” [See original at: https://ukraina.ru/20230109/1042467118.html. The whole text of the interview will be posted in English on January 10]


2. Emergency statement by Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine. Note: not to be read by too emotional persons

Intelligence services of Ukraine have prepared a new large-scale anti-Russian provocation aimed at discrediting the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and accusing Russian servicemen of allegedly committing war crimes.

On the eve of the Orthodox Christmas, representatives of the State Bureau of Investigation and the Security Service of Ukraine arranged for opening graves in cemeteries near Kazachya Lopan, Velikiy Burluk, Shypovatoye and Khatnoye (Kharkov region), where local citizens, who died of natural causes during the deployment of Russian troops in these areas from  February 24 to September 6, 2022, were buried.

After the exhumation, the bodies of Ukrainian citizens were further disfigured and thrown into specially prepared ‘pits’ on the outskirts of these settlements to create false ‘evidence’ of ‘torture’ and ‘shooting’ of civilians allegedly committed by Russian servicemen.

Representatives of the Ukrainian intelligence services and law enforcement agencies are currently photographing and videotaping the bodies of the dead Ukrainian citizens, as well as are imitating the work of ‘forensic experts’ and other ‘legal proceedings’ in the presence of fake ‘witnesses’.


With these inhumane methods, the Kiev regime, amid the absence of any success on the battlefield, seeks to keep the attention of Western audiences and convince foreign partners of Kiev regime of the need to continue supporting it. The same way as Kiev did in Bucha, Kramatorsk, and many other places controlled by AFU. Disseminating false-flag news is a constant method of Ukrainian propaganda.


3. Violation of a proposed Russian ceasefire by Ukraine

The combined grouping of Russian troops observed the ceasefire along the entire line of contact from 12:00 AM on January, 6 until 24:00 PM. on January 7, 2023 in the areas of the Special Military Operation.

Within the ceasefire, not observed by Ukrainian president and his NATO bosses, the AFU continued to conduct heavy shelling of residential areas in DPR and LPR and other regions.

In Kupyansk and Krasniy Liman directions, the AFU has fired 78 artillery and mortar shells.  In Soledar, Avdeyevka and Maryinka directions, the enemy used large-calibre artillery fire 155 times.  More than AFU 160 large-calibre shells and 20 multiple-laucnh rockets have been fired at residential areas of Donetsk.  The enemy opened artillery fire 89 times in Zaporozhye Region.  In Kherson and Krivoy Rog directions, Ukrainian artillery has been used 55 times.


So, totally, AFU has violated the proposed unilateral Russian truce 557 times


 

Russian forces had to use a return fire to suppress AFU artillery that had been firing on residential areas in these areas during the Orthodox Christmas.

4. A justifiable vendetta

As a result of the criminal attack of Kiev regime, in the first minutes of January 1, 2023, against Russian military personnel near Makeevka, not far from Donetsk city (Donetsk People's Republic), where 89 Russian have been killed by AFU intentional bombardment, the command of the combined group of Russian troops carried out a retaliatory operation.

 Over the past 24 hours, Russian reconnaissance units have uncovered and reliably confirmed through several independent sources the temporary deployment sites of the AFU in Kramatorsk controlled by Ukrainian side. There were over 700 Ukrainian servicemen in dormitory No 28 and over 600 servicemen in dormitory No 47.


More than 600 Ukrainian servicemen have been eliminated as a result of a massive missile strike on these AFU units.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin
 

 

Report # 189. Russia has elevated its highest SMO command

 

January 13, 2023

1. Moscow announced new head of the SMO

The head of the Russian General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, and the First Deputy of the Defense Minister at the same time, has been appointed to lead Moscow’s Joint Forces Group suppressing Ukrainian aggression, Russian MoD said on January 11. The former commander of the Special Military Operation or SMO, Army General Sergey Surovikin, has been made his deputy.

Two other generals were also appointed as Gerasimov’s deputies in the ongoing military campaign in Ukraine. One of them is the Russian Ground Forces commander, Army General Oleg Salyukov. An experienced career officer, he served as a battalion commander and head of the Far-East Military District before becoming a deputy head of the General Staff and then Ground Forces commander. The other is Colonel General Aleksey Kim, a deputy head of the General Staff. He previously headed Russia’s Combined Arms Academy of the Armed Forces and is known as an experienced military specialist. He is also a professor and holds an academic degree in military sciences.


The move is linked to the increased scale and complexity of coordinating troops, the MoD explained.


The need to “raise the operation command level” was linked to an “increased scale of the combat missions,” and the need for closer coordination between various services and branches of the Armed Forces, and also improve logistics support and command effectiveness for the Russian forces in Ukraine, the MoD added.

Gerasimov is known as one of Russia’s top military commanders and a renowned strategist, who has earned the respect of Kiev’s top commander, Valery Zaluzhny. Back in September 2022, he told the Time that he had “learned from Gerasimov.” “I read everything he ever wrote… He is the smartest of men, and my expectations of him were enormous,” the Ukrainian general admitted at that time. Gerasimov has visited troops fighting in Ukraine on several occasions to improve coordination between the forces, but did not take over direct operational command until now.

The decision by the Kremlin to return Russia’s top commander to direct the war efforts in Ukraine comes at a pivotal point in the conflict, possibly heralding a fresh Russian offensive as Moscow grapples for success on the battlefield, noted the WSJ [https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-aims-to-regain-offensive-in-ukraine-war-with-new-commander-11673553592]

The elevation of the SMO command has been welcomed in Russia. Many military experts label it as a desire to enhance concentration of military power against combined and direct Ukrainian-NATO aggression against Russia and its civilians.

2. Kremlin comments on major Donbass battle

Russia will continue its Donbass offensive, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on January 11, after the country’s Defense Ministry reported that airborne troops had blocked the Ukrainian-held mining city of Soledar. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the private Russian military private company Wagner Group, sometimes unofficially called as “Musicians” later confirmed that his soldiers had completely seized the city. It happened on the next day, January 12.

“Truly gigantic work has been done,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. He described the fighting as “absolutely selfless, heroic actions not only in Soledar, but in many other areas where offensives are taking place.”


During the Soledar battle Armed Forces of Ukraine has lost 25,000 GIs as KIA, or more than five reinforced brigades, and around 300 pieces of heavy weapons.


3. Moscow and Minsk will respond collectively if attacked separately or together

The use of force by Kiev against Russia or Belarus or a Ukrainian invasion of either of the two Union countries would be enough to trigger a collective response, a senior Russian diplomat told TASS.

Commenting on potential scenarios of having Belarus involved in the conflict in Ukraine, Director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Second CIS Department Alexey Polishchuk referred to the latest military doctrine of the Union State under which the use of force against either of the two Union members would be viewed as an attack on the entire Union State and said there were similar commitments on mutual support in the event of any foreign aggression against the Collective Security Treaty Organization or CSTO.

"Our countries supply weapons and components for the production of military hardware to each other, cooperate in border protection issues, and enhance the combat capability of the common Russian-Belarusian air defense system. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has repeatedly warned his country would retaliate in the event of a Ukrainian attack on Belarus or any other provocation. The republic has the sovereign right to defend its territory through all means available and Minsk can count on Russia’s full support here," the diplomat explained.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 19. Kiev delibersately used cluster missile vs civilians

March 14th, 2022

1. Kiev used cluster missile vs civilians in Donetsk

On March 13th, 2022 Ukrainian troops deliberately used operational ballistic missile Tochka-U tipped with cluster munitions against civilians in the commercial street in the center of Donetsk. 20 peaceful citizens were killed, and 36 were heavily wounded at the spot. There are no military facilities there (see PPT slides attached separately from the scene).

There are no critical remarks from the NATO capitals to such wild attack that is run counter to the international convention banning genocide, namely Article 1 and 2. Dead silence comes inside and outside NATO and from the UNO.

Ukrainian Armed Forces have never stopped shelling of Donbass either before February 24th, 2022 when the operation aimed at the liberation of Donbass Ukrainian nationalists or after that date. Every day they used heavy artillery and mortars (122 and 120 mm), MRLSs and sometimes ballistic missiles.

There are too many voices in Russia to stop any political talks with Kiev as a useless action.

Russian MoD announced that it will continue to destroy Ukrainian military industrial complex used to produce weapons during three Ukrainian aggressions against Donbass (in 2014, 2015 and 2022).

2. Russian troops destroyed Ukrainian firing range

It is located at the Ukrainian military base Yavorovsky about 30 km from Lvov, Western Ukraine, with 180 (180) foreign mercenaries assembled there killed and more than 30 persons wounded. Ukraine stopped its campaign to hire more “soldiers of fortune” to fight with Ukrainians who hate the idea to live in the country with undemocratic and inhuman regime.

At the same time 16.000 (16.000) volunteers from various countries expressed their desire to help freedom fighters in Donbass and to go there. Moscow OK’ed such intention and permitted them to go to Donbass and in the liberated areas.

3.  Developments at the battlefields

By evening March 13th Russian Armed Forces have destroyed totally 3920 various Ukrainian military facilities.

From February 24th, 2022 till March 13th there have been destroyed 100 aircraft, 145 drones, 1298 tanks and ACV/APCs, 124 MRLS, 469 field artillery guns and mortars, 1047 special military vehicles.

Russian troops have captured the Azov Sea Ukrainian naval base near Berdyansk without any resistance. Three Ukrainian combat vessels have been captured, there crews having disappeared leaving plenty of arms and ammunitions.

Around Mariupol – the major Ukrainian stronghold in the south-eastern area after Volnovakha – any resistance of nazi formations been suppressed. Such victory helped plenty of refugees to move from that hell arranged by ultra-nationalists without any hindrances. If Mariupol falls – the fate of Kiev will be doomed. The Chechen elite forces are very near the Ukrainian capital.

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Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 190. Zelensky’s ‘peace plan’ is irrelevant

January 14, 2023

1. Russia reacts negatively to Turkish support of Zelensky’s ‘peace plan’

Turkey’s stated support of the “so-called peace plan” formulated by Ukrainian President Zelensky does not change the fact that Russia considers it unacceptable, Russian Foreign Ministry said on January 11.

The ‘peace plan’ was presented by Zelensky at the G 20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia, last November. It involves a full Russian withdrawal from territories that Kiev considers to be its own and long-term support of Ukraine by international donors. Such and other paragraphs are not acceptable to Moscow.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who represented Russia at the gathering in Bali, called Zelensky’s virtual address “militant, Russophobic and aggressive” and dismissed his ten-point agenda as “unrealistic and inadequate.”

The Kremlin called such proposals a non-starter, insisting that if Ukraine wants peace it should take into account “the new realities,” referring to the four former Ukrainian regions that voted to join Russia last fall, after Crimea did the same in 2014 following a coup in Kiev.

If resumed, the talks between Russia and Ukraine will most likely be direct, without mediators, which would be the best option, Alexey Polishchuk, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Second CIS Department monitoring Ukraine, said in an interview with TASS.

The diplomat noted that last year’s talks with the Ukrainian side were direct. "Until now we have only interacted with the Ukrainians directly, using the platforms that were kindly provided to us, which we really appreciate. Three rounds of the Russian-Ukrainian dialogue were held in Belarus and one in Turkey in February-April of last year. Later almost daily contacts were held via video link. Those were direct talks with the Ukrainians," he emphasized.

2. Last year the number of forcible seizures of churches belonging to Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) has increased almost 20-fold

The Ukrainian authorities intensified their policy of hostility towards the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), in 2022 the number of raids on its churches and illegal re-registration of parishes increased many times. In 2022, such 129 seizures of churches were recorded. This is stated in the 2022 Annual report of Metropolitan Anthony, the UOC chief administrator.


Furthermore, the report says that 74 decisions of local authorities on banning the activity of religious organizations of the UOC, 84 cases of re-registration of parishes in favor of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU), and 10 acts of vandalism have been registered.


The OCU was created by merging the two schismatic organizations in Ukraine in 2018, at the initiative of former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Patriarch Bartholomew.

It was also noted in the  2022 Report that "artificially intensified religious hatred towards the UOC", "representatives of other confessions <...>, abusing their positions of power and authority, make illegal and unfounded accusations against the UOC", "violations of the rights of believers of the UOC continue" and their feelings are insulted.

The manager of the church affairs drew attention to the fact that on December 9, 2022 the Committee on Humanitarian and Information Policy submitted four anti-church bills to the Verkhovna Rada or Parliament of Ukraine.


"All of them, without exception, are directed against the UOC, violate the rights and freedoms of believers and are aimed at restricting the rights and liquidating religious organizations belonging to the UOC," the Metropolitan said. According to him, these laws, as anti-constitutional, should be removed from the agenda and should not be put to a vote in the Rada.


The Ukrainian Orthodox Church's Synodal Legal Department previously stated that the draft laws violate the rights of believers of the canonical church and are aimed at its liquidation. According to the lawyers, the bills simplify the transition of the UOC communities into subordination of the so-called Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU), create preconditions for raiding of churches and monasteries, including the Pochayiv and Kyiv-Pechersk lurches, and are aimed at a complete ban on the UOC.

In recent months, the Ukrainian authorities have stepped up their actions against the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church. The SBU or Security Service of Ukraine has been conducting searches in UOC churches, and several hierarchs have been charged with treason and subversion. On December 1, 2022 Ukrainian President Zelensky issued a decree that enacted a decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, which, in fact, was aimed at banning the UOC. In particular, the decree instructed to introduce to the parliament a bill to ban religious organizations affiliated with the centers of influence in the Russian Federation.


By decrees of Zelenskyy of December 1 and 11, 2022 sanctions were introduced against 17 representatives of the UOC, including archbishops, metropolitans, and vicars of monasteries.


[source: https://tass.ru/obschestvo/16691353]

So, various democratic freedoms in Ukraine have been banned a long time ago by pro-western Ukrainian leaders. Now, they say, the time has come to limit and to ban religious beliefs.

Despite this: no response from the Pope, no response from NATO and the EU states on all these undemocratic phenomena.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

 

Report # 199. Kiev violates the CWC in Donbass

February 7, 2023

1. Ukraine is accused of using chemical warfare agents

Russian military commanders have reported that Ukrainian troops deployed a type of chemical weapon against Russian units in Donbass by using drones. Such CW agents have caused coughing, lacrimination and weakness among a number of servicemen on the battlefield.

Speaking to Russian television on February 6, Denis Pushilin, the acting governor of the Donetsk People’s Republic, said his office has been receiving reports about chemical warfare for at least two weeks. Ukrainian troops have reportedly been deploying “chemical compounds that make our military service members ill,” he announced.

Chemical warfare is forbidden under the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), an international treaty that took effect in 1997 and to which both Ukraine and Russia are signatories. Russia has already destroyed all its CW agents, while Ukraine and the USA have not.


There have been multiple cases of using in Donbass by Armed Forces of Ukraine cluster and phosphorus ammunition also banned by the international law.


2. Biden explained refusal to send F-16s to Ukraine

America’s F-16 fighter jets should remain in the country and not be sent to Ukraine, US President Joe Biden said on February 6. Earlier, he signaled that Washington has no plans to send the warplanes to Kiev. Speaking to reporters on the White House South Lawn, Biden was asked to explain why he is against F-16 deliveries for Ukraine. “Because we should keep them here. That’s a totally different situation,” he replied, without elaborating.

His refusal, however, does not eliminate the possibility that Washington could approve the re-export of the warplanes from other countries. In an interview with the Financial Times last month, a senior executive with Lockheed Martin, which produces F-16s, said that there is “a lot of conversation about third party transfer of F-16s” to Ukraine.

In an interview on February 6, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak was asked whether Warsaw will hand over its F-16 jets to Ukraine. He replied: “we have too few of them, only 48 [aircraft].” This comes after Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said he is open to deliveries of warplanes, but only if this is a “decision of the whole of NATO.”

Russia has repeatedly warned the West against supplying Ukraine with weapons, arguing that it will only prolong the conflict. Moscow promised to destroy all NATO arms along their delivery channels.


There are only 14 major bridges, 4 main railroad hubs and two tunnels to disrupt such deliveries from NATO countries to Ukraine at the first stage, in the central part of Ukraine during their transit, and finally at the line of engagement. There are  only two railroads stretching from Poland to Ukrainian aggressors.


"In the first month of this year alone, Ukraine's loses amounted to more than 6,500 servicemen, 26 aircraft, 7 helicopters, 208 unmanned aerial vehicles, 341 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 40 multiple rocket launchers," Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on February 7 in Moscow.

The minister added that Russian Armed Forces continue to destroy all weapons and equipment supplied to Ukraine. "Russian troops continue to destroy all weapons and equipment supplied to Kiev, both on delivery routes and in combat positions," Shoigu added.

3. Ukraine is to replace its current defense minister

Ukrainian Defense Minister Aleksey Reznikov, will be relieved of his duties and instead appointed minister for strategic industries, according to David Arakhamia, parliamentary faction head of President Zelensky’s political party. The planned reshuffle follows multiple corruption scandals and resignations by other officials, including Reznikov’s deputy.


There are hints in Ukrainian mass media that the chief of the Military Intelligence Directorate or GUR, Kirill Budanov, will head the MoD, which is logical in wartime.


He is best known for his veiled threats of more strikes and terrorist attacks deeper into Russian territory. In October 2022, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) called Budanov a key suspect behind the car bombing attack on the Crimean Bridge. He is also known as having a wrist bracelet with fascist swastika.

VIPs close to the Ukrainian president claim that Reznikov is the most “logical” candidate to head the Ministry of Strategic Industries, given his “expertise” in securing Western military aid at Ramstein Air Base meetings and directing the endless flow of heavy weaponry for the Ukrainian army.

Multiple senior Ukrainian officials have resigned or have been fired in recent weeks, some in relation to an alleged graft scandal affecting the Defense Ministry. According to a Ukrainian media investigation, various foodstuffs for the military ended up costing several times more than average retail prices. In Ukraine it became a routine practice.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin
 

 

Report # 20. More territory in Ukraine is liberated

 
March 16th, 2022
 

1. Humanitarian situation is still complicated

Starting at 10AM March 15th, exclusively for humanitarian purposes, the Russian Federation has already provided humanitarian corridors for the twelfth time in the Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov directions along one humanitarian corridor to the Russian Federation, and one more through the territories controlled by the Kiev authorities towards the western borders of Ukraine. The Russian Armed Forces strictly observe the imposed ceasefire.
 
Of the ten routes we have proposed, the Ukrainian authorities have agreed on only three, but at the same time, not a single humanitarian corridor to the Russian Federation has been confirmed by official Kiev again, which once again proves the indifference of the current government to its own people.
 
Since March 14, the Russian Federation has been conducting an unprecedented humanitarian operation in Mariupol. At the same time, the civilians rescued yesterday and today confirm all the previously made assumptions about the nightmare and horrors that took place in this city.
 
The Ukrainian nationalists mined all the approaches to the city, blew up bridges, residential quarters of Mariupol, kindergartens and schools, medical institutions and other civilian infrastructure facilities were turned into strong points, ammunition depots, firing points, and Mariupol residents themselves were used as a human shield. At the same time, under the threat of death, all able-bodied residents were driven to the equipment of barricades, trenches and other engineering structures.
 
The inhumanity and ruthlessness of the agonizing Ukrainian neo-Nazis towards their own civilian population is fully confirmed by the so–called "festung" concept they borrowed from the fascists - "fortress cities". The special tragedy of such tactics lies in the fact that the Nazis created all conditions for the mass destruction of civilians in order not to leave a single living witness to their monstrous crimes.
 
In addition, nationalist battalions and units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have disabled life support systems, housing, social and administrative infrastructure of the city, individual buildings and structures have actually been wiped off the face of the earth, shops have been looted, monuments and objects of historical heritage have been desecrated and cannot be restored.
 
All Russian previous appeals with persistent and diplomatic appeals to the Kiev authorities to allow the civilian population to go to safe areas were completely ignored.
 
Despite the complete unwillingness of official Kiev to protect the civilian population from terrorist attacks by crazed nationalists, as well as the complexity of the situation, aggravated by the actions of disparate armed gangs, the Russian Federation continues to fully fulfill its humanitarian obligations.
 
More than 450 tons of food, medicines and basic necessities have already been delivered to the civilians of Mariupol to provide humanitarian assistance, including 225 tons March 15th. Mariupol residents are being evacuated safely through open humanitarian corridors from the unblocked city.
 
Based on humanitarian principles and solely for the purpose of ensuring the safety of civilians forcibly held by nationalists in blockaded settlements, we coordinate all additional humanitarian corridors proposed by Kiev on a daily basis. Today, the Ukrainian side announced nine routes for the withdrawal of refugees in the Zaporozhye, Zhytomyr and Poltava directions. On all these routes, the Russian Armed Forces also strictly observe ceasefire.
 
Moscow continues to closely monitor the actions of the Ukrainian side both on the ground and from the air, including with the use of unmanned aerial vehicles.
 
Once again, it was recorded that the Ukrainian side uses the ceasefire regimes to actively move weapons and military equipment, restore the combat capability of equipment, replenish material reserves. At the same time, the wishes of civilians to evacuate to safe areas in the northern and eastern directions to the territory of Russia are simply ignored, and all attempts to do this are blocked by territorial defence detachments and units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
 
Exclusively for humane purposes, Russian servicemen not only do not hinder, but also urge Ukrainians to use any convenient ways for them to get to safe places, including those routes that pass through the territories controlled by Kiev.
 
The Kiev authorities, on the contrary, continue to force people to stay in their homes and allow evacuation only to the western regions of Ukraine or neighboring European countries, deliberately not notifying the civilian population about the possibility of evacuation to the Russian Federation.
Western countries, as well as international organizations such as the United Nations, the OSCE, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other human rights organizations continue to hush up the horrific facts of missile and artillery strikes on densely populated areas of Donetsk. They don't know the current situation, so they distract relevant departments of the Russian Federation  by various and multiple requests to ensure the safe evacuation of civilians from territories controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and not by the Russian Armed Forces.
 
In the conditions of the growing humanitarian crisis, a significant part of the population forcibly held by radicals in Ukrainian cities and used by them as a "human shield" is looking for the possibility of evacuation only to Russia, without considering options for exit to Western states, as evidenced by the next multimillion appeals of citizens to the Russian side.
 
According to the results of daily monitoring, it was found that 11,412 more such requests were received only over the past day, and there are already 2,678,069 of them in our database with specific surnames and addresses from almost 2,000 settlements of Ukraine.
 
And this is not just statistics, these are the fates of ordinary people, their hopes for an early end to the daily nightmare, despair at the hopelessness of the situation and the uselessness of their country, whose authorities have legitimized crimes against humanity with their criminal decisions, ignore numerous cases of looting, robbery, banditry, sanctioned the use of weapons by nationalists against the civilian population, including women and children.
 
This is what one of the thousands of appeals was received March 15th:
 
"I ask for help in the evacuation of my family along the humanitarian corridor: my wife, Svetlana, her brother and 82-year-old father, who are now in Dnepr city. They are asking for evacuation to Russia. Please help them use the humanitarian corridor. They are very scared, exhausted and can't even go down to the shelter. They will die. Please help." End quote.
 
Despite this, 11,372 people, including 1,873 children, were evacuated from the dangerous zones of various regions of Ukraine, as well as the Lugansk and Donetsk people's republics, during the day without the participation of the Ukrainian side, and totally 258,791 people have been evacuated since the beginning of the special military operation, including 56,180 children. The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 29,291 personal vehicles including 1,368 per day.
 
On March 14th, thanks to the security measures taken by the Russian Armed Forces, it was possible to provide humanitarian corridors and evacuate 36,721 citizens traveling by buses and personal cars from various settlements to the western regions of Ukraine in Zhytomir, Lugansk, Donetsk and Mariupol directions.
 
7,070 citizens from 22 foreign countries, as well as the crews of more than 70 foreign vessels blocked in the seaports of Ukraine, continue to be held hostage by the militants of the territorial defence battalions.
The fate of these foreign citizens has been the subject of round-the-clock cooperation with representatives of the relevant diplomatic agencies. At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities still do not respond to the appeals of foreign states for the rescue of compatriots in distress.
 
More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centres continue to operate in the regions of the Russian Federation.
 
More than 18,500 tons of basic necessities, food and medicines have been prepared at the collection points.
At the same time, the Russian side is creating the necessary conditions for a peaceful and safe life in all the liberated territories, ensuring unimpeded access of the population to any humanitarian aid.
 
2,709 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to the settlements of Kiev, Sumy, Chernigov, Zaporozhye, Kharkov, Kherson regions, as well as Lugansk and Donetsk people's republics during the 334 humanitarian actions, including 28 actions carried out over the past day, 544 tons of basic necessities and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.
 
To date, 15 humanitarian actions have been planned and are currently being carried out in Chernigov, Donetsk People's Republic and Mariupol during which 510 tons of basic necessities, medicine and food are distributed.
 

2. Operation “Liberation” goes on

 
Troops of the Lugansk People's Republic, continuing offensive operation, is fighting inside city limits in the north-west, north-east and east of Severodonetsk.
 
Units of the Donetsk People's Republic, developing the offensive, took control of Mikhaylovka, Stavka, Botmanka, Vasilevka and are fighting for Verkhnetoretsk.
 
During the day, aviation and air defenсe means of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down: 2 Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft near Chernihov, 1 MiG-29 near Novaya Bykovka, as well as 4 unmanned aerial vehicles.
Operational-tactical and army aviation hit 128 military assets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
 
Among them: 1 Buk-M1 air defence system, 1 Osa air defence system, 4 radar detection and targeting stations, 4 command posts, 7 armament and ammunition depots and 68 areas of military equipment concentration.
 
In total, 111 Ukrainian aircraft, 68 helicopters, 160 unmanned aerial vehicles, 159 anti-aircraft missile systems, 1,353 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 129 multiple launch rocket systems, 493 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,096 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.
 
Strategically important communication center in Vinnitsa has been destroyed on March 16th.
 
Moscow says that it would continue its operation till its major goals are reached.
 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 200. Preconditions for a peace deal with Kiev

February 9, 2023

1. Moscow assesses prospects for peace with Kiev

Russia’s UN envoy Vassily Nebenzia has called on the West to stop using Ukrainians in a “proxy war” that actually has turned into a direct combined armed aggression of Ukraine and NATO against Russia.

The West is only prolonging the bloodshed in Ukraine by supplying Kiev with weapons and waging a proxy war against Moscow, Vassily Nebenzia, Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, said on February 7. The statement came the same day US President Joe Biden vowed in Congress to support Ukraine for “as long as it takes.”

“The prospects of peace will be closer when the flooding of Ukraine with weapons stops… and when they realistically listen to our concerns,” Nebenzia told reporters at a press conference in NYC. He urged Ukraine’s Western backers to stop “using Ukrainians to wage a proxy war against us.”


Asked by a reporter if a peaceful resolution to the conflict could happen in 2023, the diplomat replied: “We all hope for peace.”


Russia launched a military operation in Ukraine nearly a year ago, citing the need to protect the people of Donbass from genocide, and Kiev’s intentions not to implement the 2014-2015 Minsk peace accords at all.

2. Ukrainian opposition leader:  Zelensky 'set fire' to Ukraine

President Vladimir Zelensky has brought Ukraine to destruction in the name of Western interests because he is too incompetent and ambitious to govern it properly, famous opposition leader Viktor Medvedchuk recently observed.

Medvedchuk formerly led the largest opposition political party in Ukraine, now banned, called as Opposition Platform - For Life party which won the second largest number of parliamentary seats in Ukraine’s 2019 elections. Zelensky first placed Medvedchuk under house arrest, then sent him to a “dungeon” run by the Ukrainian SBU or Ukrainian Security Service, where the opposition politician said he was exposed to “constant psychological pressure and humiliation.”

Medvedchuk now lives in exile, after being arrested in Ukraine under false convictions, and later has been exchanged for some Ukrainian POW. Medvedchuk still considers himself a Ukrainian citizen and lawmaker, and is building a team of like-minded people to represent those he claims are suppressed by the current government in Kiev. He advocates closer ties with Russia and rejected Kiev’s pro-NATO stance.

Zelensky was elected in 2019 as a “peace candidate” who pledged to put an end to the warmongering policies of his predecessor, Pyotr Poroshenko, Medvedchuk claimed in an article published by RIA Novosti on February 8. But instead of becoming “a sentence” for Poroshenko, which was his campaign promise, Zelensky became a sentence for Ukraine, the politician said.

The new leader had a mandate to rebalance Ukraine’s political system and make the country neutral and peaceful, Medvedchuk wrote. But this required a boring routine and difficult work. Zelensky “failed to put the nation in order, and found that blaming Russia rather than his own incompetence for the problems” was easier, he said.

By the end of 2020, polls showed a decline in the popularity of Zelensky’s party, and likely defeat in the next presidential election by a candidate proposed by the party led by Medvedchuk, he noted. An escalation of tensions with Russia and later open hostilities launched by Kiev’s regime saved Zelensky’s career, the politician said.


“The country was plunged into a fire for the inflated ego of this man,” he wrote.


Today, the West flatters him at every opportunity. What luck! A ruler who would destroy his country for a photo op, boost his ratings on the blood and suffering of his citizens. Zelensky slaughtered law and stability for the sake of applause and posturing.

The actual role of the Ukrainian president is that of a “fifth columnist” working against the interests of his own nation and Europe's, considering the price it pays for the Ukraine conflict, Medvedchuk stated.

Zelensky hopes that a military victory would wash away all the things he has done to crush his political opponents and to “lease his nation as a battlefield.” But Ukraine has “already lost,” and soon this reality will catch up with him, according to Medvedchuk.

The president “acts like a winner, speaks like a winner, poses like a winner. But victory is nowhere near,” he said. Continued conflict is the only thing that delays the reckoning for the president, the politician believes.


Last January Viktor Medvedchuk also said that Vladimir Zelensky is carrying out the West's plan of conflict with Russia, and is a dictator sacrificing the country on behalf of Western powers.


When Zelensky claims Ukraine is united, he omits that this unity was forced at gunpoint, Medvedchuk asserted in his January 2023 publication.

Today’s Ukraine violates every provision of its own Constitution, Medvedchuk argued, and “ceased to be independent and sovereign” after the February 2014 coup, when it “passed completely under external control of the West.”

It should be added: current Ukrainian regime as a dangerous HE mine placed under European and global security.

3. Sunak: the UK to ship long-range arms to Kiev, to begin training its pilots

The UK will expand training for Ukrainian servicemen by starting to train jet pilots, and will ship longer-range weapons to Kiev, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said in a statement on February 8. "I am proud that today we will expand that training from soldiers to marines and fighter jet pilots," Sunak said.

According to the Prime Minister’s office, Ukrainian pilots will develop skills that will allow them to be able to "fly sophisticated NATO-standard fighter jets in the future."

Earlier, the Prime Minister’s Office noted that the shortest jet pilot training course in the UK will last 36 months.


Moscow responded that it has a firm desire to destroy all new NATO arms deliveries to ultra-Nazi regime in Kiev.


4. Nord Streams: The report of investigative journalist Seymour Hersh

 The report on Washington's involvement in the explosions at Nord Streams has once again pointed to the need for an open international investigation into the incidents and punishment for those responsible, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on February 9.

On Wednesday, Hersh, a Pulitzer Prize winner, published a report saying that US Navy divers during NATO Baltops Naval exercises in the summer of 2022 planted high explosives to destroy the Nord Stream pipelines, which Norway activated three months later. According to the report, US President Joe Biden decided to sabotage the Nord Streams after more than nine months of secret discussions with the US national security team.


"The appearance of such materials once again shows the need for an open international investigation of this unprecedented attack on critical infrastructure, international critical infrastructure. It is impossible to leave this without revealing the perpetrators and without their punishment," Peskov told reporters.


It is remarkable for the depth of analysis, the official put it, noting that it would be at least unfair to ignore it, especially for such a country as Germany, which, in fact, as a result of this terrorist act, was deprived of a very important energy facility.


Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov at a press conference on February 9 in Moscow has warned the USA about unspecified consequences for this action despite prompt denial from Washington.


On December 22, 2022 President Vladimir Putin has labelled the explosion as the act of “state terrorism”.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 203. Russian Federal Assembly appealed to world Parliaments

February, 14, 2023

Members of the State Duma adopted an Appeal by the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation to the world Parliaments in connection with the US military biological activity outside its territory. The appeal was made public on February 14, 2023.

The document was prepared by the Parliamentary Commission on Investigation into the Activities of the US Biological Laboratories on the Territory of Ukraine, which concluded that “the US biomedical programme is being implemented and funded by the Pentagon and is of a secret and military-applied nature”. The Parliamentary Commission consists of 14 Members of the State Duma and 14 Senators. The Deputy Chairwoman of the State Duma Irina Yarovaya and Deputy Speaker of the Federation Council Konstantin Kosachev are the Co-Chairs of the Commission.

“The parliamentary investigation that we initiated into the activities of biological laboratories in Ukraine is becoming more important in the world, and, without exaggeration, interest in it is very high,” said the Deputy Chairwoman of the State Duma Irina Yarovaya.

The appeal emphasizes that the preliminary findings of the Commission were proved by the facts published in the report on the activities of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA, Pentagon’s agency) in Ukraine. The report was published after the request of the US public organization Judicial Watch.

“The US Department of Defense collects especially dangerous pathogenic microorganisms for further research in its specialized scientific centers, selects genetic material, studies features of the immune system of the local population in order to determine reaction of a human body to the impact of various pathogens that can be used as potential agents of biological weapons … Their use can be disguised as natural outbreaks of infectious diseases,” emphasizes the appeal.

Parliamentarians draw attention to the new strategy of the Agency, which openly confirmed its dual purpose — not only protection, but also providing combat support to the military units. According to Irina Yarovaya, such logic “cannot but cause the most serious fears in the world.”


According to the estimates of parliamentarians, there are about 400 dual-purpose biolaboratories controlled by Washington located on the territories of other states.


“In connection with the “new mission” announced by the Agency, all countries of the world should be concerned about the real and thoroughly concealed goals and objectives of the Pentagon aimed at collecting and studying highly dangerous pathogens with the use of the Pathogen Access Control System (PACS) created by the Agency, which is secret organization and is managed solely by the US Department of Defense,” the document specifies.

In this regard, the Federal Assembly calls on the parliaments of countries where US-controlled biological laboratories are located to “give a legal and political assessment of the agreements that national health services signed with the US Department of Defense.”

Russian deputies and senators call on parliamentarians of all countries of the world to analyze the facts and threats that pose a danger not only to the states where the US biological laboratories are located, but also to all mankind.

According to the Russian parliamentarians, their foreign colleagues “can and should urge the US Congress to make public all information about the military-applied projects being implemented by the US Department of Defense that violate the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their destruction.”


“We prepared our appeal to the parliaments of other countries of the world to make them wonder about the agreements that their ministries of health sign with

the US Department of Defense”.


“These projects are called biomedical, but this is the Pentagon’s Trojan horse with military biological research inside of it,” stressed Irina Yarovaya.

“We can state with full confidence that the special operation being conducted by the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine made it possible to reveal the most dangerous military biological projects that the US is currently implementing in the world. We invite the parliaments of other countries, first of all, to start caring about protecting the lives, health and safety of their citizens, as well as about their own sovereign security and global security of the whole world,” emphasized Irina Yarovaya.

2. Over 250,000 signed petition calling Germany to stop arming Ukraine

The authors of the petition suggest that negotiating does not mean surrendering, and that engaging in talks may help prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths. A quarter of a million people have signed an online petition urging German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to stop increasing the flow of weapons to Ukraine and to push for a peaceful resolution of the conflict instead.

The petition, started on change.org by German politician Sahra Wagenknecht and journalist Alice Schwarzer, accrued over 250,000 signatures about two days since its creation.

The petition’s authors argue that Ukraine is going to end up a “depopulated, devastated country” soon if the fighting there continues, and insist that Kiev has no chance of prevailing against the “world's largest nuclear power.” “We call on the Chancellor to stop the escalation in arms deliveries. Now! He should lead a strong alliance for a ceasefire and peace negotiations at both German and European level,” the petition states. “Now! Because every lost day costs up to 1,000 more human lives – and brings us closer to a 3rd World War.”

3. Musk blocked Starlink system for Ukrainian Army

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has confirmed the Ukrainian military won’t be allowed to use the company’s Starlink Internet satellites for combat purposes for fear of being an accomplice to the start of World War3. Musk gave the confirmation amid an exchange on Twitter, which he also bought last year, with former NASA astronaut Scott Kelly.

“Starlink is the communication backbone of Ukraine, especially at the front lines, where almost all other internet connectivity has been destroyed,” Musk replied. “But we will not enable escalation of conflict that may lead to WW3.”

Starlink is a network of more than 3,500 low Earth orbit satellites offering high-speed Internet access. SpaceX started launching them in 2019 and it presently provides service in 48 countries.


Included in its terms of use is the clause:

 “Starlink is not designed or intended for use with or in offensive or defensive weaponry or other comparable end-uses.”


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Report # 206. The USA plus Norway are responsible for Nord Stream blast

 

February 21, 2023

 

1. Statement by Permanent Representative Vassily Nebenzia at UNSC briefing on threats to international peace and security (sabotage of Nord Stream gas pipeline). February 21, 2023

“Today we have gathered here for a very remarkable meeting.

It is somewhat assonant with the previous meeting regarding the act of sabotage against the Nord Stream pipe that we called on 30 September last year, yet this meeting is completely different by its tone. As many of you surely remember, back then it was already clear who may be standing behind that act of international terrorism (for this is how we qualify this incident), and Russian investigative bodies started criminal proceedings under a corresponding Article of Russia’s Criminal Code. US leadership made some statements which boil down to one message – if Russia kept doing what the United States does not like, the Nord Stream would be destroyed. Then, rather inopportunely, former Foreign Minister of Poland Sikorski (who clearly knew something) got in the spotlight, having thanked the United States on social media in a paroxysm of Russophobia. Add to this a rather indiscreet text message by former head of the British Government L.Truss, who is also known for her fierce hatred to my country. Yet formally, the United States strongly denied its involvement, realizing prospective consequences of such sabotage of critical international pipeline infrastructure. They still do, by the way.

Since then, the malevolence of Washington’s officials has increased, not in the least thanks to another famous Russophobe, “godmother” of the anti-constitutional coup in Ukraine V.Nuland. However, we would not be convening this meeting only because of this. The thing is that on 8 February, thanks to a prominent American investigative journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner S.Hersh, we not only learned the whos, but also the hows. We came to know how the US did this with help from Norway, its ally in NATO. Proceeding from facts and testimonies by eyewitnesses, he convincingly proves that during NATO’s BALTOPS exercise in summer 2022, divers from US Navy planted explosives under the pipes, which were detonated by the Norwegians three months later, on 26 September 2022. So now we know with a high degree of certainty not only who blew up our gas pipe, and also how they did it. Basically, these facts allow us to say that this was a use of force carried out in a way that is incompatible with the goals of the UN Charter.

In this statement, I will not go further into details of S.Hersh’s topline investigation, because our two briefers, J.Sachs and R.McGovern, have covered those extensively. I will only say that the depth of information that he has collected is truly striking. His previous professional expertise and uncompromising integrity leave us no doubt that this American journalist is telling the truth.

What is also striking is the level of cynicism and all-out sense of impunity with which this unprecedented crime was committed. We have got accustomed to the fact that our American colleagues position themselves above the law or rather pretend that they are the law, which they think gives them the right to interfere in internal affairs of states without retribution, carry out anti-constitutional coups, take aggressive action against independent states (I remind that by estimates of the US Congressional Research Service, since the end of the Cold War, the US has used its armed forces abroad on 251 occasions), kill and torture peaceful population in third countries while refusing to commit the perpetrators to international justice. With their allies singing along, they call it “rules-based order”, where the rules are set by themselves.

However before now, they never went as low as to blow up foreign pipelines that are owned by states with which the US was not at war. Well, this day has come. Maybe, it presages a new era, in which cross-border and trans-continental infrastructure will become a legitimate target for operations aimed at weakening of some or other states. As you can imagine, this would be an era of chaos and unspeakable harm to the entire humanity. Odds are huge that this era may truly come, unless those responsible for the sabotage of the Nord Stream are identified and held duly accountable. And unless those who masterminded this crime reimburse for the damage that occurred with the affected states – the way international law (and basic principles of justice) see it. Then and only then we will have a chance to avoid this chaos. All is in our hands, and the choice is being made i.a today, at this very meeting of the Security Council.

Contrary to what our former Western partners are about to say, we do not spread disinformation in the Security Council, and do not ty to make a guilty verdict based on allegations in the “highly likely” spirit. This is something British representatives did five years ago when they made an unconvincing attempt to accuse us of the poisoning of the Skripals which was based only on allegations and speculations neither of which had anything to do with facts or common sense. With the Nord Stream sabotage, neither the motive of the crime nor the perpetrators or the method raise any doubts. This is even more than the “smoking gun” that detectives always dream to find in Hollywood blockbuster movies. With such evidence, no lawyer would venture to defend our American colleagues in court, and predicting the jury verdict would be a no-brainer.

But we have not gathered here to have a trial. As you know, we put forward a draft UNSC resolution that tasks the Secretary-General to carry out an independent international investigation, and double-check the facts that S.Hersh and other independent journalists cite.

We have to do this, because we have strong reasons to doubt the effectiveness, transparency, and impartiality of investigations that are being carried out under some national jurisdictions. We do not see our partners being eager to cooperate. We have taken note of the letter by Permanent Representatives of Germany, Denmark, and Sweden saying that the authorities of these states had informed Russia on the progress of the investigation. Things are different in reality. Leaders of the states in question ignored the communications that Prime Minister of Russia, M.Mishustin, addressed to them in October 2022 regarding participation of relevant Russian agencies and PJSC Gazprom in the investigations. Relevant requests of the General Prosecutor’s Office of the Russian Federation were declined. Since we talk about a crime that was committed by means of an explosive device, which makes it subject to the International Convention for the Suppression of Terrorist Bombings of 15 December 1997, we expect that all states that have to do with the incident, namely the US, Norway, Denmark, and Sweden, will fulfil their obligations under this document. But leadership of these states do not show any political will or rather do not have any.

Unfortunately, there is no other way for us to attain the truth.


Those so-called investigations by Scandinavian states and Germany not only lack transparency, but, and this has become obvious by now, are aimed at covering up the tracks and exculpating the big American brother.


We are not allowed to partake, and all our requests are ignored with arrogance. By the way, it is rather weird that the states who conduct the investigations have not requested to act as briefers today. With other meetings, there is no end to those willing to take the floor. Of course, we do not and cannot have any trust in them. But we still do have trust in the Secretary-General and hope that you do too. That is why we suggest that he should be tasked with this investigation.

We circulated as official documents of the Security Council and General Assembly an address of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation that contains a corresponding request, and also verbal notes on that matter that our respective embassies addressed to Foreign Ministries of Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and the US. Everyone who wants to can read those documents.

If our American colleagues indeed have nothing to fear and if they do not doubt that their fellow citizen was all wrong, then the US does not risk anything, of which we will soon be able to make sure. In such case, we will strive to identify and hold accountable whoever it was that encroached on international peace and security by their actions. So, we look forward to having our proposal supported. These days, experts are in the middle of discussing our draft. After the first round, however, we are inclined to think that Western experts are not interested in an objective international investigation, which but substantiates our suspicion.

Colleagues, your approach to our proposed draft resolution, your interest (or the lack of it) in searching for the perpetrators and holding them accountable will define our further steps in the context of the act of sabotage that took place. We very much want to believe that you will not disappoint us or your own people and will help to establish the truth as prescribed by the Charter of this Organization”.

2.The silencing of Hersh's work has failed

The silencing of Hersh's work has failed. In America, they are beginning to write about the historical significance of this investigation, and among a number of publications on the subject stands out the opinion of renowned legal scholar Andrew Napolitano, who served as a judge of the New Jersey Supreme Court and published nine books commenting on the U.S. Constitution.

His article, published in The Washington Times under the title "What is Biden's purpose in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?" states that, legally speaking, Joseph Biden unleashed a direct military conflict to bypass American lawmakers, and accuses the president of committing a war crime.

Under the U.S. Constitution, only Congress has the power to declare war. Under the treaties to which the United States is a signatory, there must be moral and legal grounds for declaring war - that is, a clear military threat from the armed forces of another state. The War Powers Resolution of 1973 requires the President to notify Congress of all combat deployments.

Disrupting Nord Stream was a violent act of which Congress was not notified in advance, it was not defensive in nature, and its purpose was not to save the lives of those attacked by a foreign country's army. Furthermore, the act was directed against an American ally.

In other words, since the United States attacked Germany and Russia to weaken their economies, and since they were aware that this attack had no moral justification, it makes the act of war they committed a criminal - that is, a war crime," Napolitano writes about it.

According to The Washington Times, the Americans are now directly involved in the Ukrainian conflict, and the U.S. has been dragged into the war without notifying the American nation.

3. Germany has lost 100 billion euros

Germany has lost 100 billion euros (over $106.7 billion) amid the Russian military operation in Ukraine and the related increase in electricity costs, Marcel Fratzscher, President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), said.

"The Ukraine war and the associated explosion in energy costs cost Germany almost 2.5 percent, or 100 billion euros in economic output in 2022," Fratzscher told the Rheinische Post newspaper, adding that these costs will continue to increase in the coming years.

Fratzscher said that Germany has been more affected by the crisis economically because it was more dependent on Russian energy, has a high proportion of energy-intensive industry and "is extremely dependent on exports and global supply chains."

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin
 

 

Report # 207. Presidential Address to Federal Assembly on February, 21

February 22, 2023

1. Moscow has suspended its participation in the New START

“Colleagues, I will talk about one more issue.

In early February [2023], the North Atlantic alliance made a statement with actual demand to Russia, as they put it, to return to the implementation of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, including admission of inspections to our nuclear defence facilities. I don’t even know what to call this. It is a kind of a theatre of the absurd.

We know that the West is directly involved in the Kiev regime’s attempts to strike at our strategic aviation bases. The drones used for this purpose were equipped and updated with the assistance of NATO specialists. And now they also want to inspect our defence facilities? In the current conditions of confrontation, it simply sounds insane.

I would like to draw your attention specifically to the fact that they are not letting us conduct full-scale inspections under this treaty. Our repeated applications to inspect different facilities remain unanswered or are rejected under formal pretexts, and we cannot verify anything on the other side.

I would like to stress that the United States and NATO are openly saying that their goal is to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia. And what, after such statements they are supposed to tour our defence facilities, including the latest ones, as if nothing happened? A week ago, I signed an executive order putting new land-based strategic systems on combat duty. Are they going to poke their nose there as well? Do they think we will let them go there just because?

Having made this collective statement, NATO actually claimed to be a participant in the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Arms. We agree with this, please go ahead. Moreover, we believe this framing of the issue is long overdue. Let me recall that the US is not the only nuclear power in NATO. Britain and France also have nuclear arsenals. They are developing and upgrading them and these arsenals are also directed against us – they are also directed against Russia. The latest statements by their leaders merely confirm it – listen for yourselves.

We cannot just ignore this and have no right to do so especially now. Nor can we forget that the Soviet Union and the United States initially signed the first Treaty on Strategic Offensive Arms in 1991 in a completely different situation – in conditions of abating tensions and growing mutual trust. Subsequently, our relations reached a level that allowed Russia and the US to say they no longer considered each other enemies. Wonderful, everything was going very well.

The Treaty of 2010 that is in force contains critically important provisions about indivisible security and the direct link between strategic offensive and defensive arms. All of that has long been forgotten. The United States withdrew from the ABM Treaty. It is now a thing of the past. Importantly, our relations have degraded which can be credited entirely to the United States.

After the Soviet Union broke up, they began to revise the outcomes of World War II and to build an American-style world ruled by one master. To do this, they began to rudely destroy the foundations of the international order laid down after WWII in order to cross out the legacy of the Yalta and Potsdam conferences. Step by step, they proceeded to revise the existing international order, to dismantle security and arms control systems, and plotted and carried out a series of wars around the world.

To reiterate, all of that was done for the sole purpose of dismantling the post-WWII architecture of international relations. This is not a figure of speech. This is how it all unfolded in reality. After the Soviet Union collapsed, they sought to perpetuate their global dominance regardless of the interests of modern Russia or other countries for that matter.

Sure enough, the international situation changed after 1945. New centres of growth and influence have been formed and are rapidly expanding. This is a natural and objective process that cannot be ignored. But the United States trying to refashion the international order to suit exclusively its own needs and selfish interests is unacceptable.

Now, they are using NATO to give us signals, which, in fact, is an ultimatum whereby Russia should, no questions asked, implement everything that it agreed to, including the New START Treaty, whereas they will do as they please. As if there is no connection between strategic offensive weapons and, say, the conflict in Ukraine or other hostile Western actions against our country. As if there are no vociferous claims about them seeking to inflict a strategic defeat on us. This is either the height of hypocrisy and cynicism, or the height of stupidity, but they are not idiots. They are not stupid after all. They want to inflict a strategic defeat on us and also to get to our nuclear sites.


In this regard, I am compelled to announce today that Russia is suspending its membership in the New START Treaty. To reiterate, we are not withdrawing from the Treaty, but rather suspending our participation. Before we come back to discussing this issue, we must have a clear idea of what NATO countries such as France or Great Britain have at stake, and how we will account for their strategic arsenals, that is, the Alliance's combined offensive capabilities.


Their statement comes, in fact, as a request to join this process. Well, come onboard, we do not mind. Just try not to lie to everyone this time and present yourselves as champions of peace and detente. We know the truth. We are aware of the fact that certain types of US nuclear weapons are reaching the end of their service life. In this regard, we know for certain that some politicians in Washington are already pondering live nuclear tests, especially since the United States is developing innovative nuclear weapons. There is information to that effect.


Given these circumstances, the Defence Ministry and Rosatom must make everything ready for Russia to conduct nuclear tests. We will not be the first to proceed with these tests, but if the United States goes ahead with them, we will as well. No one should harbour dangerous illusions that global strategic parity can be disrupted”.


Conclusion

“Today, we are together living through challenging times and overcoming all difficulties together as well. It could not have been otherwise because we have been raised on the example of our great ancestors and must be worthy of their behests that are passed down from generation to generation. We are moving only forward owing to our devotion to our Motherland, our will and our unity.

This cohesion was on display from the first days of the special military operation – hundreds of volunteers, representatives of all ethnicities of our country came to recruitment offices. They decided to stand by the defenders of Donbass, to fight for their native land, for their Fatherland, for the truth and justice. Today, warriors from all regions of our multi-ethnic Motherland are fighting shoulder to shoulder on the frontlines. They pray in different languages, but they all pray for victory, for their fellow soldiers and for the Motherland. (Applause.)

Their difficult military labour, their exploits are finding a powerful response all over Russia. People are supporting our fighters. They don’t want to stay on the sidelines. The front is now passing through the hearts of our people in their millions. They are sending medicine, communication devices, transport, warm clothes and camouflage nets, to name a few – everything that helps protect the lives of our fighters.

I know the comfort letters from children and schoolkids give to our soldiers at the front. They take them into battle as a cherished possession because the sincerity and purity of children’s wishes bring tears to their eyes. They feel more forcefully for whose sake they are fighting and whom they are defending.

Warriors, their families and civilians greatly appreciate the care with which volunteers are surrounding them. They have been acting boldly and decisively from the very start of the special military operation. Under fire and shelling they are leading children, elders and all those in trouble out of basements; they were and still are bringing food, water and clothes to hot spots; they are setting up humanitarian aid centres for refugees and helping doctors in field hospitals and on the combat contact line; they continue to risk their lives to save others.

The Russian Popular Front alone raised over five billion rubles as part of the All for Victory initiative. The flow of donations does not stop. Every contribution is important and this applies to those made by large companies and businesspeople. But especially touching and inspiring are the donations of people with modest incomes, which are contributing part of their savings, salaries and pensions. This coming together to help our warriors, civilians in the zone of hostilities and refugees is worth a lot.

Thank you for this sincere support, cohesion and mutual aid. It is impossible to overstate their importance.


Russia will meet any challenges because we are all one country, a big and united nation. We are confident in ourselves and confident in our strength. The truth is on our side. (Applause.)”


[Note: these are selective parts of the Address that has lasted for nearly two hours; the full text in English can be found at: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70565]

2. Lawmakers approved Putin’s SOA treaty decision

Russia’s Parliament has passed legislation suspending Moscow’s participation in the New START agreement

Both houses of the Federal Assembly – the Russian Parliament – approved a bill on February 22 submitted by President Vladimir Putin, by which Moscow will temporarily suspend its participation in the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty (New START) – the last existing nuclear accord between Russia and the US.

In an explanatory note attached to the bill, the lawmakers state that the agreement, which was meant to cut in half the number of nuclear weapons deployed around the world, was supposed to allow both parties to carry out inspections in order to ensure compliance. The US, however, “deliberately fails to fulfill its obligations under the treaty in this area of activity,” the note states.

Because of this, and in accordance with federal law, the Russian president has made a proposal to suspend the agreement, the note reads, adding that the decision to resume Russia’s participation in the treaty will also be made by the president.

The bill will enter into force once signed by the president and published.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 209. The USA is preparing false flag ‘chemical attacks’ in Ukraine

 

March 1, 2023

1. The USA has delivered three types of CW agents to Ukraine

On 22 February,2023, an influential U.S. non-governmental organisation held a conference on the events in Ukraine. Within the event, former U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan made the statement, ‘...Russian troops plan to use chemical weapons in the special military operation area...’.

Due to such false and provocative US statement Russian MoD made by Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, the Chief of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Protection Troops of Russian Armed Forces, the following remarks:

Russia regards this information as the intention of the United States itself and its accomplices to carry out a provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals. They expect that amid hostilities, the international community will be unable to organise an effective investigation, with the result that the real organisers and executors may escape accountability and the blame is going to be placed on Russia.

Supply of safety equipment for Ukraine

The preparations are in full swing. In early 2023, the Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre planned a large shipment of individual protection means to Ukraine. In order to substantiate the situation, ‘...Russian troops have already used phosphorus ammunition and could use the poisonous substances in a foreseeable escalation of the situation...".


The list of supplied equipment includes more than 55,000 sets of personal protective gear, 55,000 gas masks, 13,000 individual gas casualty first-aid kits. Priority is given to antidotes for organophosphorus agents such as sarin and soman — 600,000 ampoules, anti-seizure medications — 3 mln tablets, detoxification preparations for mustard gas, lewisite and chloroacetophenone inhibitors of hydrocyanic acid — 750,000 vials.


Toxic chemicals delivered to Kramatorsk

In addition, the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation received information that on  February, 10, 2023, a rail transport arrived in Ukraine (Kramatorsk) controlled by AFU with a cargo of chemicals in one of its cars, accompanied by a group of foreign nationals. The car was detached and towed to the territory of the Kuybyshev Iron and Steel Works in Kramatorsk, where it was unloaded under the control of the Security Service of Ukraine and the AFU command representatives.

The consignment consisted of 16 sealed metal boxes, eight of which were labelled with a chemical hazard symbol, BZ inscription and marked with two red bands, corresponding to the class of poisonous substances of temporary incapacitation action. Five of the boxes were labelled as 'C-S-RIOT' (chlorobenzylidenemalononitrile), three were labelled as 'C-R-RIOT' (dibenzoxazepine) with a single red band, which corresponds to substances with an irritant action. The cargo was placed on the U.S.-manufactured armoured vehicles, which moved to the combat line of contact as part of the convoy.

On 19 February, 2023, 11 cars of specially marked shrapnel ammunition have been unloaded in Kramatorsk. The unloading took place at night on a platform in the suburbs, with the car labelled as 'Building materials', 'Cement'. According to the information of the Russian Ministry of Defence, the U.S. Army has previously upgraded its shrapnel rounds to be loaded with ready-to-use, liquid formulated irritant acids.


The facts of the simultaneous delivery of toxic chemicals and protection means indicate an attempted large-scale provocation using the BZ (3-Quinuclidinyl benzilate) psychotropic incapacitating warfare agent during the conflict.


Threats posed by using BZ

Under the international Chemical Weapons Convention, BZ agent is a controlled chemical and its use is prohibited under Article 1 of the CWC.

Chemical warfare is forbidden under the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) of 1997, to which the USA, Ukraine and Russia are all signatories.

This chemical causes acute phrenoplegia, disorientation, hallucinations, and memory impairment. BZ agent is a standard war gas for the U.S. Army. It was used extensively during the Vietnam War. The United States and its allies have repeatedly used chemical munitions in the military conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.

The U.S. declared a total destruction of stocks of BZ as early as 1990. Fifty tonnes of the substance have been disposed of, but samples were left behind. In addition, the possibility of synthesising BZ precursors from pharmaceutical production facilities in the volume of up to several dozen tonnes per year is now retained.

Examples of U.S. provocative actions

Russia has repeatedly noted that Western leadership regularly make provocative statements about the possibility of Russia using weapons of mass destruction.


However, these projects have been implemented not by Russia, but many times by the USA itself with the aim to achieve political goals.


For example, a vial of 'washing powder' in the hands of U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell prompted the invasion of Iraq and the deaths of over half a million Iraqi citizens.In 2017, photos of the White Helmets replicated by news agencies, showing people wearing ordinary gauze bandages taking samples at the site of the alleged use of sarin, led to a U.S. missile strike on Shayrat airbase in Syria. In 2018, staged shootings of allegedly chlorine-poisoned children in Douma (Syrian) caused the destruction of a research centre in Barzah and Jamraya [see PPT slides].

Russian MoD reminded that no one has been held accountable for these crimes so far.

International legal assessment of the use of toxic chemicals during hostilities

U.S. compliance with its obligations under the CWC is distinctly selective. Any restrictions under this treaty that threat to U.S. national interests are ignored with the direct connivance of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

For example, in violation of Article 1 of the Convention and the 1925 Geneva Protocol, the United States Department of Defense has legalised the use of a range of chemicals as weapons of war. Its use is envisaged with a wide range of standard ammunition.

Russian MoD warned warned hat the Russian stationary and mobile CBRN monitoring complexes deployed in the area of the special military operation make it possible to identify chemical threats in a timely manner and to respond to them promptly. It is therefore a mistake for the West to count on successful provocations with toxic chemicals in a warfare environment.

The analytical capabilities of the Russian Ministry of Defence chemical laboratories can reliably determine not only the type of chemicals used, but also the country of their manufacture.

For example, the information presented on the slide about the use of improvised munitions against Russian troops by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is widely known. Investigations proved that it was a thermal ammunition that contained flammable oxidisers and additives, some of which were produced in the Czech Republic.


Russia also warned that in the event of provocation using toxic chemicals, the true culprits will be identified and punished. Russia will continue to work to expose the Western criminal activities in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention.


2. Anti-government demonstrators in Chisinau have called on the authorities not to drag Moldova into the military conflict in Ukraine.

Protesters brought signs with white doves and chanted "Moldova without war!," "No spending on weapons!" and other anti-war slogans.

"We don't want war, we don't want to be dragged into the conflict [in Ukraine]. And we have gathered today to ask the government what they are planning in this direction and give them the opinion of the people," one of the leaders of the opposition ‘National Movement for People’ Marina Tauber said, according to a TASS correspondent reporting from the scene.

As it was earlier reported, the opposition is holding a mass protest in Chisinau on February 28, demanding that the government compensate the population for gas, electricity and heating bills. Thousands of people are marching from the Academy of Sciences on Stefan cel Mare si Sfant Boulevard to the center of Chisinau, where the rally is scheduled to take place, with additional groups of people joining them on the way. Despite the authorities' ban on holding rallies in the center of the capital, the police have not yet prevented demonstrators from doing so.

Protests began in Moldova last summer and took place in different regions of the country. Demonstrators blame authorities for being unable to cope with rising prices, as well for the record inflation rate of 30% by 2022. Last year, similar rallies in Chisinau ended in clashes with the police, who did not allow demonstrators into the center of Chisinau. In October 2022, the police violently dispersed a tent camp that was deployed in the square between the parliament and the presidential administration buildings. Natalia Gavrilița resigned as prime minister in February against the background of the unrest.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

 

 

 

 

Report # 21. Moscow published more documents on biolabs in Ukraine

 
March 17th, 2022 
 

1. Russia continues to study evidence on Ukrainian-U.S. military biolabs

More than 30 such labs implemented biological warfare programs in full cooperation with the United States and its NATO allies on the territory of Ukraine. A secret project aimed at studying the ways bats can transmit diseases to humans has been carried out under the under the direct supervision of U.S. specialists’ control and on a systematic basis at the joint biolab in Kharkov, Ukraine, for many years. Even the U.S. Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland admitted in the Senate March 8th that such labs do exist.
 
As part of the project, the Kharkiv State Veterinary Academy studied 145 wild birds as vectors for the transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza. The conditions were assessed under which the transfer can become unmanageable, cause economic damage, and create food security risks.
 
The MoD also named names, revealing that Joanna Wintrol, the U.S. Defence Threat Reduction Agency's liason officer at the US Embassy in Kiev, has been serving as one of the program's curators.
 
Commenting on a trove of papers released in a presentation held March 17th, Russian Radiological, Chemical and Biological (RCB) Defence Troops chief Lt-Gen Igor Kirillov pointed to a document dated 6 March 2015 which he said confirmed that components of biological weapons were being created in Ukraine with direct U.S. involvement and financing.
 
"An analysis of the information received suggests that Ukrainian specialists have not been made aware of the potential risks involved in the transfer of biomaterials, and that they are essentially being used and kept in the dark, and have no real idea about the true goals of the ongoing research," Kirillov said at a briefing in Moscow on March 17th.
 
He suggested that it was no coincidence that these biolaboratories were chosen by the DTRA and its contractor Black & Veatch to execute Project UP-8, directed at the study of pathogens of Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever, leptospirosis and hantaviruses, given that these pathogens have natural foci in both Ukraine and Russia. Their use can be disguised as the natural outbreak of diseases. This is why this particular project received additional funding, and the deadlines for its implementation were extended, Kirillov said.
 
Ukrainian biolabs were also the main executor of Project P-782, conducting research into the transmission of diseases through bats. A Russian RCB Troops analysis of documents in this area has shown that Pentagon research in this area has been going on since at least 2009 under the direct supervision of U.S. specialists, and that work in this area was undertaken in subprojects P-382, P-444 and P-568.
 
The documents showed that the Pentagon planned to expand its military bioresearch program in Ukraine to neighboring countries, and a research into the spread of pathogens by bats in joint U.S labs in Ukraine and the Lugar Lab in the Republic of Georgia began in October 2019, on the eve of the start of the global coronavirus pandemic.
 
Russia continues to receive information about attempts to destroy biomaterials and documentation in Ukraine's biolabs. During such liquidation activities at the Laboratory of Veterinary Medicine in the settlement of Khlebodarskoye, Odessa region, Ukrainian nationals working at the lab were not even allowed in the building. This laboratory cooperates with the Mechnikov Anti-Plague Research Institute in Odessa, which conducted research on plague, anthrax, cholera, tularemia and arboviruses.
 
Russian MoD will present in the near future new documents on the export of a large amount of human biomaterials from Ukraine to the UK and other European countries.
 

2. Humanitarian situation is still very tense 

The units of the airborne troops of Russia, performing tasks within the framework of a special military operation, have begun serving at checkpoints, ensuring the safety of the passage of military columns and movement along public roads of residents of settlements in the Kiev region.
 
To ensure the safety of the passage of military units at the exits from the controlled area, several checkpoints are equipped. On the most dangerous sections of roads, airborne units deployed platoon strongpoints.
 
The main task of military personnel at checkpoints is to ensure the safety of movement of military convoys, civilians, checking vehicles, drivers and passengers, as well as inspection of transported goods.
 
While Russian troops managed to secure a free passage for many refugees, the ultra-nationalist formations do their utmost to prevent them to escape. For example, at the city of Mariupol, Russians helped more than 31.000 trapped people to flee to the Russian territory, the Ukrainian national battalions permitted only a small group of such people comprised from nearly 100 persons.
 
To attract more military assistance from outside Kiev ordered to explode a drama theater in Mariupol with several dozens of civilians hiding at its basements. Many saved refugees criticize Ukrainian national battalions in a very strong words as ‘new fascists’ and as “beasts’. 
 
NATO guided by the USA have increased shipments of military aid to Ukraine. It means that they still pour more fuel into a flame. They still rely on Kiev wishing to prolong their proxy aggression in Europe.
 

3. Developments at the battlefields

Russian troops are moving towards the final goal: demilitarization and denazification of the regime in Ukraine that became a puppet in the hands of a number of states in the West who created a new hotbed of tension in Europe and as a bridgehead for attacking Donbass – the area that does not want to live inside the ultra-nazi and failed state. 
 
In total, over the past day, aviation and air defence of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down one Ukrainian helicopter Mi-24 and 1 Mi-8, as well as 12 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, including 3 Bayraktar TB-2.
 
Operational-tactical and army aviation hit 46 military assets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Among them: 11 anti-aircraft missile systems, including S-300 division, 1 multiple launch rocket system, 3 command posts, 1 electronic warfare station, 7 ammunition depots and 18 areas of military equipment concentration. On the evening of March 16th, high-precision missiles delivered an air strike on ammunition storage in Sarny, Rovnenskaya region. Storage facilities with missiles and ammunition, including missiles for the Tochka-U tactical complex, were destroyed.
 
In total, 182 Ukrainian aircraft and helicopters, 177 unmanned aerial vehicles, 170 anti-aircraft missile systems, 1,393 tanks and ACVs, 134 MLRS, 523 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,182 special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation that started February 24th, 2022.
 

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Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 210. Moscow’ suspended validity of New START: explanation

March, 2, 2023

Unofficial translation

Russia guarantees its security. The suspension of our country's participation in New START is aimed at this goal.

In his address to the Federal Assembly on February 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed suspending our country's participation in the United States-Russian Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START). This initiative was unanimously supported in the State Duma and the Federation Council. What does this suspension mean, what can it do for Russia and how has the world reacted to it? These and other questions were the subject of an interview given to “Krasnaya Zvezda” by Vladimir KOZIN, a leading expert at the Center for Political and Military Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Foreign Ministry, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences.

- Vladimir Petrovich, you are a well-known expert in the field of strategic offensive arms, and author of several monographs on this issue. What can you say about Russia's decision to suspend New START?

- The main reasons that prompted our state to take such a decision are briefly outlined in the president's address to the Federal Assembly. These are the repeated violations by Washington of the inspection regime provided for in New START. In particular, the Americans unreasonably demanded that their inspection teams be allowed to visit our military SOA facilities, but without providing an adequate and full-fledged opportunity for Russia to inspect similar facilities on U.S. territory.

Vladimir Putin pointed out that the goal of the US and its NATO allies is - and they say this openly - to deliver a strategic defeat to Russia. He was indignant that the Americans are going to drive around our defence facilities, including those where Russia's newest advanced systems are concentrated, as if nothing had happened.

It was pointed out that Western countries were directly involved in the Kiev regime's attempts to strike at our strategic air bases in continental Russia using long-range heavy drones that had been modernized and equipped with the assistance of NATO specialists.

The president also pointed out that the treaty did not take into account the nuclear missiles of the UK and France.

The speech also emphasized that the U.S. is running out of warranty periods for the combat use of some types of nuclear warheads. And in this regard, some figures in Washington claim the possibility of natural testing of its nuclear weapons, including taking into account the fact that the U.S. is developing new types of nuclear warheads.

Washington violates the most important provisions on the indivisibility of security and ignores the organic link between strategic offensive and strategic defensive weapons.

Russia cannot ignore all these factors. U.S. policy is aimed at undermining the national security of the Russian Federation, which contradicts the principles of the aforementioned treaty signed in 2010. Practically all directions of the general policy of the United States and the European Union towards our state are deeply hostile. Without a change of this policy by Washington any of our steps towards it in the context of New START is absolutely ruled out, underlined a specially adopted statement of the Russian Foreign Ministry.

- The president of Russia pointed out in his speech that the United States is developing new types of nuclear warheads. What can you say about that?

- First of all, I would like to stress that the United States has adopted an extensive modernization program for its strategic offensive weapons. In particular, it envisages that after deep modernization, the B-52 strategic bombers will remain in service until at least 2050. They will be used to launch modern and advanced long-range nuclear missiles, including hypersonic ones.

Last December, the latest B-21 Raider, a low detectable heavy strategic bomber capable of carrying nuclear weapons, was also demonstrated. It will be put into service in 2025 and will replace the current heavy strategic stealth bombers B-2A Spirit. A total of at least 100 new aircraft will be purchased.

New nuclear warheads capable of engaging heavily fortified and underground targets will be developed for the aircraft. One of them will be the controlled variable-yield thermonuclear bomb B61-12. It will also be deployed on American bases in Europe. The F-35 tactical fighter is designed for such a bomb, which began to arrive in the armament of many NATO member countries.

At least 12 strategic submarine-launched ballistic missile carriers of the Columbia type will be constructed for the US Navy that will substitute the current SSBNs of the Ohio type starting from 2031. They will be equipped with Trident-2 missiles that will receive upgraded 470-kiloton W88 Alt 370 warheads. R&D has also begun on the W93 warhead, which will replace the W76 and W88.

The existing Minuteman-3 surface-mounted missiles will be replaced by the new LGM-35A Sentinel (Sentinel) with W87-0 and W87-1 warheads (the second version will appear if the development of the first one is delayed).

It should also be noted that on February 9, 2023, the US National Nuclear Security Administration announced the launch of the Los Alamos Plutonium Pit Production Project (LAP4) to produce plutonium pits. They are a critical component of U.S. nuclear weapons. These pits act as a trigger: when detonated, the plutonium causes a small nuclear reaction, triggering a larger secondary explosion of the main nuclear charge. The necessary infrastructure at Los Alamos National Laboratory is scheduled to be in place to produce up to 30 such backup pits per year. In addition, there are plans to repurpose the former mixed oxide fuel plant in Savannah River, South Carolina, to produce at least 50 such pits annually.

- What is meant when it is claimed that the Americans have stopped counting "over a hundred of their New START carriers" on their list of limits?

- They arbitrarily withdrew 101 strategic offensive weapons from the treaty under the pretext of "retrofitting" them. We are talking about 56 SLBMs, 41 heavy strategic bombers and four land-based ICBMs, which they declared "training". But Russia is not sure that these systems will not be re-transformed into nuclear missions once again. The Americans also refuse to open the top covers of individual strategic offensive arms carriers to Russian inspectors in order to conceal the actual number of nuclear warheads they have deployed. All of this is a violation of New START.

- How realistic is it for Washington to resume underground nuclear tests?

- It is, absolutely. The USA hasn't ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which has been ready for signature since 1996. And it's not trying to do so. This treaty is not in force, because several states, including the USA, have not ratified it, without which it cannot enter into force. Russia ratified it in 2000. Here we should keep in mind that the 1963 international treaty is still in force, which prohibits nuclear weapons testing in three environments: in outer space, in the atmosphere and underwater.

Meanwhile, in the United States, discussions about the resumption of full-scale nuclear tests have intensified considerably. In this regard, Vladimir Putin stressed in his address that if the U.S. resumes nuclear tests, we will also resume them.

- And what can you say about the nuclear capabilities of the UK and France?

- It is believed that the UK has 225 thermonuclear warheads, of which 160 are on alert. They are mainly carried by four Vanguard-class SSBNs, each with 16 Trident-2 missiles. It is planned to replace them with the new Dreadnought class missiles submarines.

France, in turn, has 384 strategic nuclear warheads. Three hundred of them are deployed on four Triomphant SSBNs. France's airborne part of its nuclear capability consists of medium-range ASMPA cruise missiles with TNA nuclear warheads. They are mainly carried by Rafale multirole fighters.

We must add here that the United States, Britain and France have coordinated plans to deploy their nuclear missiles in the World Oceans. All three nuclear powers also send their "dual-capable" aircraft to participate in the NATO Air Force operation called "Baltic Air Policing". It has been going on since 2004 in the skies of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland. For us it is not unimportant that such aircraft can carry both conventional and nuclear bombs on board.

- What exactly is the suspension of Russia's participation in New START? After all, it is not provided for, it only says about the possibility of withdrawal from it.

- You are right. Article XIV of the Treaty provides for such a possibility. It says that you can only withdraw completely from the treaty if one of the parties decides that exceptional circumstances relating to its contents have jeopardized its supreme interests. If we were to withdraw from the treaty now, it would cease to be in full for us. And if we were to decide to renew it, we would have to draft it anew, a process that traditionally takes a long period of time.

When deciding to introduce a moratorium on its participation in it, the Russian side proceeded from Federal Law No. 101-FZ “On International Treaties of the Russian Federation” of July 15, 1995, which unequivocally allows us to do this. In particular, we are talking about paragraph 4 of Article 37. And Article XIV of New START may well be applicable to this situation. I am referring to the provision on exceptional circumstances that put Russia's supreme interests at risk.

All the aforementioned negative circumstances are real for us. They are also substantial and significant both in terms of their scale and their strategic implications for Russia's national defence and national security.

- Will Russia fully or partially stop complying with New START provisions?

- Some of our obligations are being suspended and some are being preserved. The practice of mutual on-site inspections where the traditional nuclear-missile triads of New START are deployed on the territories of the negotiating parties will be discontinued, - up to a maximum of 18 inspections per year. There won't be any. It also follows from the February 21 presidential Address that Russia is suspending the demonstrations of its strategic offensive arms, especially the latest advanced models. We will need them yet. The Americans also do not show us anything new from their strategic nuclear weapons.

On the other hand, the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Defense Ministry specify that despite the decision to suspend its participation in the treaty, Russia will continue to comply with the quantitative restrictions on national strategic offensive arms set by the treaty until its expiration date, that is until February 5, 2026. That is, it will not exceed the following limits for each party: namely 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads and 800 operationally deployed and operationally non-deployed strategic delivery vehicles described in the treaty. Clearly this would be on the basis of reciprocity with the United States, and not automatically or unilaterally on our part. Such a provision has been left in place to prevent a nuclear arms race.

In addition, Russia will continue to participate in the exchange of notifications with Washington on launches of ICBMs and SLBMs on the basis of the relevant agreement between the USSR and the USA signed in 1988. Of course, also solely on the basis of reciprocity and parity. This provision allows the parties to know in advance that a foreign ICBM and SLBM launch is a test launch and not heralding the start of a nuclear missile war.

- What is the initial reaction of the three NATO nuclear powers to the Russian moratorium on New START?

- So far, unconstructive. And very brief, with expressions of concern. The U.S., for example, has expressed regret over it, but hasn't offered anything constructive in return, other than a wish to see Russia return to full compliance with the treaty. If they stop there, it should be understood that the U.S. does not intend to withdraw its own tactical nuclear weapons from Europe and Asia to its territory, does not intend to discuss with us the issues of limiting its global missile defense system and the non-deployment of strike weapons in outer space.

The UK and France have refused at all to include their nuclear arsenals in all START treaties, including the ‘Newest START’ if it is drafted. It is impossible to take them into account in New START. We concluded it only with the U.S. side. And they, London and Paris - I'd like to stress this - have a strategy of launching a nuclear first strike on Russia, just like Washington has.

- Is it possible for Russia to return to compliance with all the provisions of New START?

- The Russian Foreign Ministry said in its statement of February 21 [2023] that the national decision to suspend our participation in New START is reversible, but on certain conditions. Our Foreign Ministry urged Washington to make good faith efforts to generally de-escalate the situation and create conditions for the resumption of the full-fledged functioning of the treaty. For his part, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed that everything would depend on the West's position and its willingness to take Moscow's concerns into account, including in connection with NATO's involvement in the conflict in Ukraine.

Moscow sees the possibility of restoring this treaty act in its previous form, but this will entirely depend on the behavior of the United States in the international arena in general, as well as in the nuclear missile, missile defense and military-space spheres in particular. The right to renew it rests with the president of Russia.

If Washington does nothing to restore the viability of New START, it is clear that Russia will take additional measures to strengthen the strategic balance in the world and its own national security. It is important to note that even without this treaty, Russia is able to monitor its implementation or non-implementation by the USA by using national technical means of verification.

Without full implementation of all the provisions of this treaty by the U.S. side and without Washington taking a constructive position on the whole range of issues outlined earlier that form the basis of strategic stability, in my view, there is no point in discussing the basic principles of a potential the ‘Newest START’.

[source: The Red Star, March 1, 2023// http://redstar.ru/rossiya-obespechivaet-svoyu-bezopasnost/]

Note: On February 28, 2023, President Putin signed the Law # 38-FZ enacting suspension of New START. The law was officially published the same day and entered into force. On March 1 Russia presented the US Embassy in Moscow a diplomatic note on suspension of New START by the Russian Federation.

 

Original text in Russian

Россия обеспечивает свою безопасность. На это направлено и приостановление участия нашей страны в Договоре СНВ-3.

 

21 февраля в Послании Федеральному Собранию Президент России Владимир Путин предложил приостановить участие нашей страны в российско-американском Договоре о мерах по дальнейшему сокращению и ограничению стратегических наступательных вооружений (Договор СНВ-3). Эта инициатива была единогласно поддержана в Госдуме и Совете Федерации. Что означает собой эта приостановка, чем она может обернуться для России и как на неё отреагировали в мире? Эти и другие вопросы стали темой интервью, которое дал «Красной звезде» известный политолог Владимир КОЗИН, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук.

– Владимир Петрович, вы известный эксперт в области стратегических наступательных вооружений, автор нескольких монографий по этому вопросу. Что вы можете сказать относительно принятого Россией решения о приостановлении действия в Договоре СНВ-3?

– Основные причины, которые подвигли наше государство на принятие такого решения, в кратком виде изложены в Послании Президента Федеральному Собранию. Это неоднократное нарушение Вашингтоном инспекционного режима, предусмотренного Договором СНВ-3. В частности, американцы необоснованно требовали допустить их инспекционные группы для посещения наших военных объектов СНВ, но без предоставления адекватной и полноценной возможности инспектирования российской стороной аналогичных объектов на территории Соединённых Штатов.

Владимир Путин обратил внимание на то, что цель США и их союзников по НАТО состоит, и они об этом говорят открыто, в нанесении стратегическое поражения России. Он возмутился, что американцы в этих условиях как ни в чём не бывало собираются разъезжать по нашим оборонным объектам, в том числе там, где сосредоточены новейшие перспективные системы России.

Было указано, что западные страны прямо причастны к попыткам киевского режима нанести удары по базам нашей стратегической авиации на континентальной части России с помощью тяжёлых беспилотников большой дальности, которые были модернизированы и оснащены при содействии натовских специалистов.

Президент отметил и то обстоятельство, что в названном договоре не учитываются ракетно-ядерные вооружения Великобритании и Франции.

В выступлении также подчёркивалось, что в США истекают гарантийные сроки годности к боевому применению отдельных видов ядерных боеприпасов. И в этой связи некоторые деятели в Вашингтоне заявляют о возможности натуральных испытаний своего ядерного оружия, в том числе с учётом того, что в США идёт разработка новых типов ядерных боеприпасов.

Вашингтон нарушает важнейшие положения о неделимости безопасности и игнорирует органическую взаимосвязь между стратегическими наступательными и стратегическими оборонительными вооружениями.

Россия не может не учитывать все эти факторы. Политика Соединённых Штатов направлена на подрыв национальной безопасности Российской Федерации, что противоречит принципам указанного договора, подписанного в 2010 году. Практически все направления генеральной политики США и Евросоюза в отношении нашего государства являются глубоко враждебными. Без изменения Вашингтоном такой политики любые наши шаги ему навстречу в контексте Договора СНВ-3 абсолютно исключены, подчеркнули в специально принятом заявлении российского внешнеполитического ведомства.

– Президент России в своём выступлении указал на то, что в США идёт разработка новых типов ядерных боеприпасов. Что вы можете сказать в этой связи?

– Прежде всего хотелось бы подчеркнуть, что США приняли обширную программу модернизации своих СНВ. В частности, ею предусмотрено, что после глубокой модернизации стратегические бомбардировщики B-52 будут сохранены в строю по крайней мере до 2050 года. Их будут использовать для запуска современных и перспективных ядерных ракет большой дальности, включая гиперзвуковые.

В декабре прошлого года был также продемонстрирован новейший малозаметный стратегический бомбардировщик B-21 Raider, способный нести ядерное оружие. Он будет принят на вооружение в 2025 году и заменит нынешние стратегические бомбардировщики-«невидимки» B-2A Spirit. Всего будет закуплено как минимум 100 новых самолётов.

Для авиации будут разработаны новые ядерные боезаряды, способные поражать хорошо укреплённые и подземные объекты. Одним из них станет управляемая термоядерная бомба с изменяемой мощностью B61-12. Она также будет размещена и на американских базах в Европе. Под такую авиабомбу разработан тактический истребитель F-35, который стал поступать на вооружение многих стран – членов НАТО.

Для ВМС США построят не менее 12 стратегических подводных ракетоносцев типа «Колумбия», которые начиная с 2031 года придут на замену сегодняшним ПЛАРБ типа «Огайо. Они будут оснащены ракетами «Трайдент-2», которые получат модернизированные боеголовки W88 Alt 370 мощностью 470 килотонн. Также начаты НИОКР по созданию боеголовки W93, которая заменит W76 и W88.

Действующие наземные шахтные «Минитмен-3» заменят на новые ракеты LGM-35A Sentinel («Страж») с боеголовками типа W87-0 и W87-1 (второй вариант появится, если разработка первого задержится).

Следует также отметить, что 9 февраля 2023 года национальное управление по ядерной безопасности США объявило о запуске проекта Los Alamos Plutonium Pit Production Project (LAP4) по производству плутониевых сердечников. Они являются важнейшим компонентом американского ядерного оружия. Эти сердечники действуют как спусковой крючок: при детонации плутоний вызывает небольшую ядерную реакцию, провоцируя более крупный вторичный взрыв основного ядерного заряда. Намечено создать необходимую инфраструктуру в Лос-Аламосской национальной лаборатории, что позволит производить до 30 таких резервных сердечников в год. Кроме того, планируется перепрофилировать бывший завод по производству смешанного оксидного топлива в Саванна-Ривер (Южная Каролина) для производства ежегодно не менее 50 подобных сердечников.

– Что имеется в виду, когда утверждается, что американцы перестали учитывать «свыше ста своих носителей СНВ» в списке их лимитов?

– Они произвольно вывели из-под действия договора 101 единицу стратегических наступательных вооружений под предлогом их «переоборудования». Речь идёт о 56 БРПЛ, 41 тяжёлом бомбардировщике и четырёх МБР наземного базирования, которые они объявили «учебными». Но у России нет уверенности в том, что эти системы не будут вновь трансформированы под ядерные задачи. Американцы также отказываются открывать для российских инспекторов верхние крышки носителей отдельных видов СНВ с целью сокрытия реального количества размещённых в них ядерных боезарядов. Всё это – нарушение Договора СНВ-3.

– Насколько реально возобновление Вашингтоном подземных ядерных испытаний?

– Вполне. США не ратифицировали Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний, готовый к подписанию ещё с 1996 года. И не пытаются сделать это. Этот договор не действует, так как его не ратифицировали несколько государств, в том числе и США, без чего он не может вступить в силу. Россия ратифицировала его в 2000 году. Здесь надо учитывать, что ещё действует международный договор 1963 года, который запрещает испытания ядерного оружия в трёх средах: в космическом пространстве, в атмосфере и под водой.

Тем временем в США значительно активизировались дискуссии о возобновлении натурных ядерных тестов. В этой связи Владимир Путин в своём послании подчеркнул, что если США возобновят ядерные испытания, то возобновим их и мы.

– А что вы можете сказать о ядерном потенциале Великобритании и Франции?

– Считается, что Великобритания располагает 225 термоядерными боеголовками, из них 160 находятся на боевом дежурстве. Их основные носители – четыре ПЛАРБ типа «Вэнгард», каждая из которых имеет по 16 ракет «Трайдент-2». Их предполагается заменить на новые субмарины типа «Дредноут».

В свою очередь, Франция обладает 384 стратегическими ядерными боезарядами. 300 из них размещены на четырёх ПЛАРБ типа Triomphant. Военно-воздушная часть ядерного потенциала Франции состоит из крылатых ракет средней дальности ASMPA с ядерной боеголовкой TNA. Их носителями являются в основном многоцелевые истребители «Рафаль».

Здесь надо добавить, что США, Великобритания и Франция имеют согласованные планы по развёртыванию своих ракетно-ядерных вооружений в Мировом океане. Все три ядерные державы также направляют свои самолёты «двойного назначения» для участия в операции ВВС НАТО под названием «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование». Она осуществляется с 2004 года в небе Латвии, Литвы, Эстонии и Польши. Для нас небезразлично, что такие авиационные средства могут нести на борту как обычные, так и ядерные авиабомбы.

– В чём именно заключается приостановление участия России в Договоре СНВ-3? Ведь оно в нём не предусматривается, говорится лишь о возможности полного выхода из него.

– Вы правы. Такая возможность предусмотрена в его статье XIV. Там записано, что из договора можно только выйти совсем, если одна из сторон решит, что исключительные обстоятельства, связанные с его содержанием, поставили под угрозу её высшие интересы. Если бы мы сейчас вышли из этого договорного акта, то он перестал бы действовать для нас в полном объёме. И в случае принятия решения о его возобновлении нам бы пришлось разрабатывать его заново, а этот процесс традиционно занимает продолжительный период времени.

Принимая решение о введении моратория на своё участия в нём, российская сторона исходила из Федерального закона № 101-ФЗ «О международных договорах Российской Федерации» от 15 июля 1995 года, который однозначно позволяет сделать это. В частности, речь идёт о пункте 4 статьи 37. Да и упоминавшаяся статья XIV Договора СНВ-3 вполне может быть применима к возникшей ситуации. Имею в виду положение об исключительных обстоятельствах, которые поставили под угрозу высшие российские интересы.

Все названные выше негативные для нас обстоятельства – реальные. Они также являются существенными и значительными как по своим масштабам, так и по своим стратегическим последствиям для национальной обороны и национальной безопасности России.

– Прекратит ли Россия полностью или частично соблюдать разрешительные положения Договора СНВ-3?

– Часть обязательств для нас приостанавливается, а часть сохраняется. Прекращается практика проведения взаимных инспекций «на местах», где размещаются традиционные ракетно-ядерные триады СНВ, на территориях договаривающих сторон – максимально до 18 инспекций в год. Их не будет. Из Послания Президента от 21 февраля также вытекает, что российская сторона приостанавливает и демонстрационные показы своих СНВ, в особенности их новейших перспективных образцов. Они нам ещё пригодятся. Да и американцы ничего нового из своих СНВ нам не показывают.

С другой стороны, в МИД и Министерстве обороны России уточнили, что, несмотря на решение о приостановке своего участия в договоре, до окончания срока его действия, то есть до 5 февраля 2026 года, наша страна продолжит соблюдать предусмотренные договором количественные ограничения на национальные СНВ. То есть не будет превышать установленные им следующие лимиты для каждой стороны: по 1550 единиц стратегических ядерных боезарядов и по 800 оперативно развёрнутых и оперативно неразвёрнутых стратегических носителей, описанных в договоре. Ясно, что это будет происходить на основе взаимности с Соединёнными Штатами, а не автоматически и не в одностороннем порядке с нашей стороны. Такое положение оставлено в силе с целью недопущения гонки ядерных СНВ.

Помимо этого, российская сторона будет и далее участвовать в обмене с Вашингтоном уведомлениями о пусках МБР и БРПЛ на основе соответствующего соглашения между СССР и США 1988 года. Разумеется, также исключительно на основе взаимности и паритета. Это положение позволяет сторонам заранее знать, что запущенная чужая МБР и БРПЛ является испытательной, а не предвестником начала ракетно-ядерной войны.

– Какова первоначальная реакция трёх ядерных держав НАТО на российский мораторий по Договору СНВ-3?

– Пока неконструктивная. И весьма краткая, с выражением озабоченностей. США, например, выразили сожаление по этому поводу, но ничего конструктивного не предложили взамен, кроме желания, чтобы Россия стала вновь полностью выполнять договор. Если они остановятся на этом, то надо понимать, что США не собираются выводить на свою территорию собственное тактическое ядерное оружие из Европы и Азии, не намерены обсуждать с нами вопросы об ограничении своей глобальной системы ПРО и о неразмещении в космическом пространстве ударных вооружений.

Великобритания и Франция вообще отказались учитывать их ядерные арсеналы в договорах, касающихся СНВ, в том числе и в новом договоре СНВ-4, если он будет разрабатываться. Их же учёт в Договоре СНВ-3 невозможен. Он заключён нами только с американской стороной. При этом они, Лондон и Париж, подчеркну это особо, придерживаются стратегии нанесения первого ядерного удара по России, так же как и Вашингтон.

– Возможно ли возвращение России к выполнению всех положений Договора СНВ-3?

– В своём заявлении от 21 февраля МИД России отметил, что национальное решение о приостановке нашего участия в Договоре СНВ-3 является обратимым, но на определённых условиях. Наше внешнеполитическое ведомство призвало Вашингтон предпринять добросовестные усилия в целях общей деэскалации ситуации и создания условий для возобновления полноформатного функционирования договора. Пресс-секретарь Президента России Дмитрий Песков, в свою очередь, подчеркнул, что всё будет зависеть от позиции Запада и его готовности принять во внимание озабоченность Москвы, в том числе в связи с вовлечением НАТО в конфликт на Украине.

Москва видит возможность восстановления этого договорного акта в прежнем виде, но это будет целиком и полностью зависеть от поведения США на международной арене вообще, а также в ракетно-ядерной, противоракетной и военно-космической сферах в частности. Право возобновить его действие остаётся за Президентом России.

Если Вашингтон не сделает ничего для восстановления жизнеспособности Договора СНВ-3, то вполне очевидно, что Россия примет дополнительные меры для укрепления стратегического баланса в мире и собственной национальной безопасности. Немаловажно, что и без этого договора Россия в состоянии достаточно надёжно отслеживать его выполнение или невыполнение Соединёнными Штатами с помощью национальных технических средств контроля.

Без полного выполнения всех положений этого договора американской стороной и без занятия Вашингтоном конструктивной позиции по целому ряду проблем, которые изложены ранее и которые составляют основу стратегической стабильности, на мой взгляд, не имеет никакого смысла обсуждать и основные принципы потенциально возможного договора СНВ-4.

[источник: Красная звезда, 1 марта 2023 г.// http://redstar.ru/rossiya-obespechivaet-svoyu-bezopasnost/]

Примечание: 28 февраля 2023 года Президент Владимир Путин подписал Закон № 38-ФЗ  "О приостановлении Российской Федерацией действия Договора между Российской Федерацией и Соединенными Штатами Америки о мерах по дальнейшему сокращению и ограничению стратегических наступательных вооружений", который приостановил действие Договора СНВ-3. В этот же день закон был опубликован и вступил в силу. 1 марта Россия передала в Посольство США в Москве дипломатическую ноту с соответствующим извещением.

 

 

 

Report # 211. Ukrainian armed attack against civilians in the Bryansk Region

March 3, 2023

1. Ukrainian saboteurs attacked two villages in Russia proper

On March 2, 2023 morning a number of Ukrainian saboteurs crossed the Russian border in the Bryansk Region bordering Ukraine and launched raids on the villages of Lyubechane and Sushany. The Ukrainian armed nationalists attacked two civilian passenger cars, one of them being used to deliver schoolchildren to a nearby school.


Two adults were killed, including car drivers, and a boy named Fyodor, 10 years old, a schoolboy, 3rd form at the primary school, was injured


 Later the bullet belonged to NATO-caliber assault rifle was extracted from his body at the hospital. So far Fyodor’s condition is normal.

Russian Education Minister Sergey Kravtsov expressed gratitude to that boy who was wounded by neo-Nazi and helped two other schoolgirls of the 1st form at the primary school to survive by urging them to escape and to hide from fire. The Kremlin and the Governor of the region also noted Fyodor’s and driver’s courage in saving the life of the little passengers.

Bryansk Governor Aleksandr Bogomaz said that the Administration would prepare relevant documents to decorate Fyodor with a medal for his bravery.

President Vladimir Putin characterized such Ukrainian intrusion as a terrorist act. He made very critical remarks to saboteurs who have seen that it was a civilian car named “Niva” but nevertheless ambushed its passengers including children with assault rifles. He said that Russia would press terrorists down.

On March 3 a meeting of the Russian national Security Council headed by the President took place. It was devoted to a single item in the agenda – combatting terrorism and fortifying Russian-Ukrainian border.

The use of NATO weaponry in in that "outrageous terrorist act" in Bryansk Region sparks questions about the Western bloc's culpability in the acts of terrorism, the Russian Foreign Ministry has announced.

"Ukrainian officials have repeatedly acknowledged that all their actions are carried out with the approval and support of the United States and other NATO countries. The murders in Bryansk Region were committed using NATO weapons. In this regard, a logical question arises about the qualification of these countries as accomplices in such crimes and as sponsors of terrorism," the ministry said in a press statement on March 3..

"By supplying Ukraine with high-tech weapon types, the United States and other NATO countries are turning the country into a personal laboratory and testing ground for their developments," the ministry said, referencing the ongoing NATO aggression against Russia. "We have drawn the appropriate conclusions from the events. Russian investigators have launched a probe. This crime will not go unpunished," the statement said.

The Federal Security Service or FSB in Russian along with the Russian Defense Ministry have since reported that they have taken tough measures to eliminate the attackers. In order to avoid civilian casualties as well as damage to civilian infrastructure, the enemy was pushed back to Ukrainian territory, where they were hit with a massive artillery strike, the FSB told the Russian media. Various media sources say that the number of terrorists were around 50.

The situation in Russia’s Bryansk Region is under the control of law enforcement agencies, the FSB reported the same day after an attack by Ukrainian saboteurs. The FSB stated that the area is currently being checked and inspected and that a large number of explosive devices of various types had been found. Bomb squads are working on the scene to disarm the explosives the saboteurs planted in many places.

Russian regions bordering Ukraine have regularly come under attacks by Kiev’s forces since the start of the ongoing conflict. The local authorities in Bryansk and Kursk Regions have repeatedly reported shelling by the Ukrainian forces, which has sometimes resulted in civilian casualties.

2. US lawmakers worry about stolen arms in Ukraine

 According to recent the US Defense Department revelations, it has increased its scrutiny of U.S. arms and other military aid flowing to Ukraine, the department’s incoming Inspector General told lawmakers on February 28.

Robert Storch, who spent years working to uncover corruption in Ukraine long before comedian Zelenskyy became president, told the House Armed Services Committee that the country’s top leaders have promised to remain tightly focused on the issue of corruption. Still, Storch said, “We're in the trust-but-verify business.” He also noted that his office is working with our partners to make sure that there aren't any gaps with regard to the different types of assistance that are being provided.

His office has 20 audits going on or planned to discover the truth. It is also working with other inspectors general and the Government Accountability Office to monitor weapons shipments and make sure that they’re getting to the right place and hands.  Sometimes each US ‘arms basket’ includes up to 50-70 types of different military hardware and equipment, and involves huge quantities of ammunition. E.g. it is very difficult to control distribution of munitions if there are up to several hundred thousands of artillery shells or several millions of rounds for assault rifles.

In some ways, the US DoD Inspector General will find it harder to conduct end-use monitoring in Ukraine than in Afghanistan. The US high-ranking officials lament that Inspector General does not have sufficient number of outposts across Ukraine. They also have not seen any signs of diversion in the right direction or that the Ukrainian military and political officials are following the respective procedures. The highly staffed US Embassy in Ukraine is not able to cope with controlling proper use of the US weapons sent to Zelensky that kill both Ukrainians and Russians.


The Pentagon demands that the Kiev regime that has bogged down in its direct NATO-led aggression versus Donbass and Russia with no practical results should pay back all money the USA has already spent on such illogical and miscalculated adventure launched by Zelensky and his predecessors.


During the hearing in question, US lawmakers looked critically for reassurances that Ukraine was living up to its commitments and not allowing low-level officials to steal and resell weapons in the black markets from where they can be obtained by terrorist and criminal factions.

Robert Storch noted: “You know, I've worked the Ukraine issue now for about nine years and in our engagements over that entire period, corruption was the No. 1 issue we raised with Ukrainian officials”.

Ukraine achieved its worst score on Transparency International’s corruption index since February 2014. Zelenskyy’s government has managed to install very limited scope of measures to provide transparent record-keeping to satisfy international donors and lenders. Those efforts included a five-year Action plan to tackle corruption and the launching of an online procurement tracker to let anyone monitor how efficiently Ukraine military aid is being spent. Seemingly, not so effectively.

Recently, Zelensky has fired several top military officials on corruption charges, a sign that, despite these efforts, corruption continues in the country but also that the government is willing to take public actions to curb it. Such move is not a serendipity. It is a badly needed step. But could it be helpful at the end of the day?

3. Lavrov: Russia is shocked at impunity over Nord Stream sabotage

Russia's top diplomat arrived in New Delhi earlier this week to take part in the G20 Foreign Ministers' summit and hold a number of bilateral and multilateral meetings on the sidelines of the event.

Russia is shocked at impunity over the Nord Stream sabotage in the area of NATO and EU's responsibility, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on March 2, addressing the G20 ministerial meeting in New Delhi. "We are witnessing the degradation of international economic relations provoked by the West, their transformation into a weapon, including in the energy sector. [...] We insist on a fair and swift investigation into the terror attack with involvement of Russia and others concerned," he said.


Russia no longer perceives the US and its allies as reliable trade partners and will not allow itself to be dependent on them, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told a Raisina Dialogue conference in India on March 3.


“We will not rely on any partners in the West anymore. We will not allow them to blow up the pipelines again,” he said in response to a question about Russian energy policy.

Previously, Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzia said that Russia's Western delegations at the UN Security Council meetings were not showing any desire to cooperate in an independent investigation to verify a report that presented significant details that the United States was behind the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines.

4. 'Buried' grain deal & West's selfish policy are exposed

During his speech at the G20  ministerial meeting, Lavrov continued by saying that the West has "shamelessly buried" the grain deal initiated by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres in July 2022, as he highlighted the obvious obstacles to the export of Russian agricultural products and fertilizers around the world, no matter how the EU tries to convince everyone otherwise.

"Today, the lion's share of grain supplies from Ukraine goes at dumping prices for fodder to the European Union, not to the poorest nations. [...] Consignments of free cargo of Russian fertilizers, in particular for Africa, are still blocked at European ports," he explained.


The minister also called for putting an end to illegitimate sanctions, any form of violation of the freedom of international trade, market manipulation, arbitrary introduction of price ceilings and other attempts to appropriate foreign natural resources.


5. Anti-government demonstrators in Chisinau have called on the authorities not to drag Moldova into the military conflict in Ukraine

Protesters brought signs with white doves and chanted "Moldova without war!," "No spending on weapons!" and other anti-war slogans.

"We don't want war, we don't want to be dragged into the conflict [in Ukraine]. And we have gathered today to ask the government what they are planning in this direction and give them the opinion of the people," one of the leaders of the opposition ‘National Movement for People’ Marina Tauber said, according to a TASS correspondent reporting from the scene.

As it was earlier reported, the opposition is holding a mass protest in Chisinau on February 28, demanding that the government compensate the population for gas, electricity and heating bills. Thousands of people are marching from the Academy of Sciences on Stefan cel Mare si Sfant Boulevard to the center of Chisinau, where the rally is scheduled to take place, with additional groups of people joining them on the way. Despite the authorities' ban on holding rallies in the center of the capital, the police have not yet prevented demonstrators from doing so.

Protests began in Moldova last summer and took place in different regions of the country. Demonstrators blame authorities for being unable to cope with rising prices – seven times as much for gas and four times as much for electricity –  as well for the record inflation rate climbing at 34% in 2022.


The other factor of civil disobedience is resistance of many people to potential admission of Moldova into NATO.


 Last year, similar rallies in Chisinau ended in clashes with the police, who did not allow demonstrators into the center of Chisinau. In October 2022, the police violently dispersed a tent camp that was deployed in the square between the parliament and the presidential administration buildings. Natalia Gavrilita resigned as prime minister in February against the background of the unrest.

Anti-government demonstrators in Chisinau have also called on the authorities not to drag Moldova into the military conflict in Ukraine that have lost 257,000 Ukrainian and 2,000 Polish GIs as killed in action.

In other developments, the Russian Federation destroyed a sabotage base in Nikolaev, where British instructors were preparing an attack on Transdnistria.

 

 

 

 

 

Report # 22. Ukrainian nationalists continue to kill peacefiul ukrainian citizens

 

March 18th, 2022

1. Humanitarian situation

As usual, at 10AM on March 17th Russia once again opened and secured humanitarian corridors in Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov directions: a) along one corridor leading to Russia; b) and one more through the territories controlled by the Kiev authorities towards the western borders of Ukraine.

Ukrainian nationalists, realizing the hopelessness of their situation, deliberately delay time in the hope of the help of Western "masters" and do not let Ukrainian civilians out of the blocked cities to safe areas. At the same time, with sophisticated meanness and cynicism, they continue to kill ordinary Ukrainians, citizens of Ukraine, using their lives exclusively as expendable material for a "human shield".

The inhumane attitude of the Kiev authorities towards the population of their country is also evidenced by their shameful and criminal decisions of recent weeks. First of all, this is the legalization of the so-called "license to kill", as well as the use of foreign mercenaries and criminals released from prisons to take part in combat operations, which inevitably leads to an escalation of violence, but at the same time not on the front line, but in places of mass residence of unprotected civilians. And this has an extremely negative impact, first of all, on civilians and their hostile attitude to president Zelensky.

Guided by the principles of international humanitarian law and not accepting the suffering of the local population, the Russian Federation conducts large-scale measures to provide assistance to all people in need without exception.

The implementation of a set of measures for the evacuation of Ukrainian citizens and foreigners to safe areas, as well as the restoration of peaceful life in the territories liberated from neo-nationalists, continues.

As a result of the humanitarian operation carried out in Mariupol, 42,992 more people have been safely evacuated from Mariupol on March 17th. They tell newsmen horrible stories about their life during ultra-right regime in Kiev.

134 tons of medicines, basic necessities, as well as food, including baby food, were handed over to the population by Russian troops.

Federal executive authorities together with the Russian public organizations, patriotic movements have prepared more than 16.5 thousand tons of humanitarian aid to the refugees.. More than 19,500 tons of basic necessities, food and medicines have been prepared at the collection points.

At the same time, the Russian side is creating the necessary conditions for a peaceful and safe life in all the liberated territories, ensuring unimpeded access of the population to any humanitarian and medical aid.

3,175 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 385 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 36 actions in Kiev, Kharkov and Chernigov regions, as well as in Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, during which 181 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

Today, 42 humanitarian actions are being held in Kiev and Chernigov regions, during which 267 tons of basic necessities, including food, are being transferred to the population.

The Russian Armed Forces strictly observe the ceasefire on these corridors.

It also treat with Ukrainian POWs with dignity and respect. There are no complaints from them on any misbehavior.

To date, the database has already taken into account 2,696,239 people who want to evacuate from almost 2,000 settlements in Ukraine. Over the past day, 7,513 more peaceful citizens of Ukraine and foreigners have applied to the official structures of the Russian Federation and directly to the Joint Coordination Headquarters through various channels with requests for evacuation to Russia.

6,894 citizens from 21 foreign countries, as well as the crews of 70 foreign vessels blocked in the seaports of Ukraine, continue to be held hostage by the militants of the Ukrainian battalions.

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles imposed by the Ukrainian side, over the past day, without the participation of Kiev, 12,230 people were evacuated from dangerous areas, 2,262 of them children, and in total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 283,461 people have already been evacuated, of which 60,684 are children. Kiev still deviates to resolve humanitarian issues with Mscow.

Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vassily Nebenzia has refuted Western accusations that Russia conducted war crimes in Ukraine, including the claims that it shelled a drama theatre and a mosque in Mariupol.

Mariupol, the second largest city in eastern Ukraine, has been under the control of Ukrainian forces. The city has been the site of intense fighting in recent weeks.

2. Producing ‘biodeath’ in Ukraine

Lieutenant-General Igor Kirillov, who commands the Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Protection Forces of Russia, presented one more pack of documents and imagery showing why the military has come to such a conclusion.

 Russia is sure that that components of biological weapons were being made on the territory of Ukraine. He noted that the documents he was presenting “have the signatures of real officials and are certified by the seals of organizations,” for those journalists and experts in the West doubting their veracity (see PPT added to the Report #21). 

One document, dated March 6, 2015 confirms the “direct participation of the Pentagon in the financing of military biological projects in Ukraine,” Kirillov said. The U.S. officially and directly funded the projects through the Ukrainian Ministry of Health, according to the Agreement on Joint Biological Activities. The evidence shows that the real recipients of some $32 million in funds were Ukrainian Defense Ministry laboratories in Kiev, Odessa, Lvov and Kharkov.

Some of the documents at the Kherson laboratory appear to be missing and may have been destroyed, Kirillov said, suggesting it was related to the 2018 outbreak of a mosquito-borne parasitic disease in that region, and a possible cover-up.

Four cases of dirofilariasis were detected in February 2018, which is not typical for mosquito life cycles, the general said. Pentagon representatives visited the local hospitals in April 2018, collecting medical records and getting briefed on the epidemiological investigation. However, “no documentary evidence regarding this outbreak has been found in the Kherson laboratory,” leading the Russian military to believe that “the urgency of destroying such documentary evidence is explained by the desire to prevent access to them by Russian specialists.”

There was also an outbreak of drug-resistant tuberculosis in 2018, among the citizens of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, with 70 cases detected around the village of Pesky – on the frontline with Ukrainian troops – alone.

The Russian general brought up the long history of U.S. conducting banned biological research in other countries, noting as an example that in 2010 Washington apologized for syphilis experiments in Guatemala.

Russian MoD showed official documents confirming the transfer of 5,000 samples of blood serum taken from Ukrainian citizens to the Pentagon-backed Richard Lugar center in Tbilisi, Georgia. Another 773 biological assays were transferred to the UK, while an agreement was signed for the transfer of “unlimited quantities” of infectious materials to the Friedrich Loeffler Institute, Germany’s leading center for animal diseases.

The Russian Federation has repeatedly called for the publication of data on the military biological activities of the Pentagon on the territory of third countries, but the collective West, led by the United States, consistently blocks this initiative, preferring to conduct research bypassing international obligations with "someone else's hands".

Moscow will continue to examine the evidence and inform the global community about the illegal activities of the Pentagon and other U.S. government agencies in Ukraine,

3. Situation at the battlefields

The Lugansk Republic troops have liberated more than 90 percent of its territory from Ukrainian aggressors. The Donetsk Republican troops continue their movement in the northern direction. During the last 24 hours they covered 16 km.

Some more residential areas have been liberated.

The Russian troops have moved into the center of Mariupol the last key stronghold in the Eastern Ukraine.

During last 24 hours 81 Ukrainian military targets have been destroyed, including 4 MRLSs, three command and control centers, 8 ammunition depots, and 24 military hardware concentration areas.

From the beginning of the operation (February 24th) totally 183 aerial drones, 1406 tanks and ACVs, 138 MRLSs, 535 artillery systems and mortars and 1197 military vehicles have been destroyed.

Three U.S. instructors taking part in military operation vs Donbass have been personally identified.

While peace talks are underway between Russia and Ukraine, Western nations are continuing to pump Kiev with weapons. Ukraine's President Zelensky has requested that they supply Kiev with air defence systems, after the USA rejected the idea of declaring a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin called German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's attention to rocket strikes by the Ukrainian military of the cities of Donetsk and Makeevka during a March 18th telephone call. The president stressed that these strikes amount to "war crimes", but were still completely ignored by the West.

Moscow said firmly that it would immediately stop any arms deliveries to Ukraine from NATO.

So far, 17 NATO countries of totally 30, supplied aggressive Kiev’s regime with lethal arms and ‘blood’ money.

4. South African president blames NATO for Ukraine

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa says the bloodshed could have been averted if the U.S.-led bloc hadn’t increased instability, as a potential mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has faulted NATO for triggering war in the former Soviet republic by expanding eastward onto Moscow’s doorstep.

“The war could have been avoided if NATO had heeded the warnings from amongst its own leaders and officials over the years that its eastward expansion would lead to greater, not less, instability in the region,” Ramaphosa told South African lawmakers on March 17th.

"The president of the fund of the mosque, Sultan Suleiman Mosque in Mariupol, refuted the fact that the Turkish mosque with 80 people was shelled by Russia from the east", Russian envoy Nebenzia said during a UN Security Council meeting on March 17th.

Russia has been accused by the West over the past several days of killing civilians in a number of Ukrainian cities amid the ongoing Russian special military operation. The Russian forces in Ukraine have been accused of shelling civilian infrastructure in Mariupol as well as obstructing the evacuation of refugees from the city.

The Russian envoy called the Western allegations that Russia is forcing the people from Mariupol and other Ukrainian towns into Russia a "barefaced lie". He noted that only during the previous 24 hours alone Russia managed to ensure the evacuation of more than 31,000 civilians, including 89 foreign nationals, to the territory of the Russian Federation while some of the evacuees refused to go to Kiev-controlled territories.

Nebenzia also refuted the Western claims that Russia allegedly hit the Mariupol Drama Theatre where hundreds of civilians had sought shelter. He added that according to widely available information provided by Mariupol residents, who escaped from the city, the Ukrainian nationalist battalion Azov was using the building to cause a provocation and blame Russian forces. Moreover, the Russian military never considered the theatre as a strike target in their operations.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 224. Kiev’s religious aggression vs Ukrainian believers continues

April, 5, 2023

1. Russian MFA: Kiev continues its illegitimate actions against Lavra

The situation with the Kiev Pechersk Lavra is the Kiev authorities’ illegitimate act from the legal point of view and an immoral act from the spiritual point of view, the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

"The seizure of the Kiev Pechersk Lavra is an act of the current authorities in Kiev that is illegitimate from a legal and immoral from a spiritual point of view. It is more indicative than many other steps of the regime and its rhetoric, it proves its criminal nature, readiness to disregard the feelings and, most importantly, the rights of people, including citizens of Ukraine," the MFA said on Telegram.

The Ministry stressed that the regime of President Volodymyr Zelensky is not independent in its anti-clerical policy, the split of Orthodoxy is a goal being pursued by Washington. "At many levels, ecclesiastical and secular authorities drew the attention of the world’s ecclesiastical and international communities to the current new round of violations of the civil rights of believers ... The lack of a decisive reaction on the part of addressees from among the leaders of international organizations is very significant," the Russian Foreign Ministry said, referring to appeals made by Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia to several ecclesiastical leaders and representatives of international organizations, including the United Nations, not to allow monks to get evicted from the Kiev Pechersk Lavra.

In a statement on April 5, Russia has demanded the release of Metropolitan Pavel, stating that it is concerned about his wellbeing. Pavel was taken into custody last week as Kiev sought to oust UOC monks from the historic monastery which he heads.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said it was angered by the Ukrainian government’s pressure to remove the UOC from the Kiev Pechersk Lavra. It added that Moscow is worried about the monks and priests, who “face the threat of a physical and moral crackdown,” and claimed Pavel’s arrest was a prime example of religious persecution.

The Russian Foreign Ministry accused Zelensky of insulting the UOC’s ruling council by refusing to meet them and ignoring millions of people who support the church in Ukraine and beyond. “The Kiev regime stubbornly ratchets up its policy of moral terror against citizens and the faithful,” it said.

Moscow also reiterated its criticism of the US government for a failure to address the situation, claiming that this proved Washington cannot be an arbiter on religious freedom. US reports on the issue are “bogus propaganda and puny political hackery,” the Foreign Ministry asserted.

2. The situation in and around Artyomovsk

The head of Russian private military company (PMC) Wagner, Evgeny Prigozhin, has announced a milestone achievement in the battle for the city of Artyomovsk (known in Ukraine as Bakhmut), publishing a video taken in front of the town’s administrative building on April 2 evening where the Russian flag was hoisted. The enemy is concentrated in the western districts of the city, he said.

There is no planned withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from Artyomovsk (Ukrainian name Bakhmut) in sight, the acting head of the DPR Denis Pushilin said on April 3.

Artyomovsk, located in the Kiev-controlled part of the DPR, is an important transport hub, crucial to delivering supplies to the Ukrainian group of troops in Donbass. Fierce battles are going on for the city. As the adviser to the acting head of the DPR, Yan Gagin, said earlier, Russian forces control up to 70% of the city's territory. Also, all paved roads leading there have already been cut or are under the fire control of the Russian forces, which greatly complicates the delivery of supplies to the Ukrainian group.

3. Ukraine claims it has assembled new eight brigades for new offensive

Kiev has completed the recruitment of its so-called “Attack Guard,” which has been assembled with the aim of retaking territories lost to Russia during the ongoing conflict, Ukrainian Interior Minister Igor Klimenko has said, claiming that by beginning of April eight new brigades have been set up. He didn’t reveal the exact number of personnel in the new force, but a Ukrainian brigade usually consists of between 3,000 to 5,000 servicemen. It is 24,000 (min) or 40,000 (max).


That is not enough to conduct any offensive or counter-offensive


4. Russia moves unmatched heavy 'flamethrowers' into frontline

Russian airborne troops for the first time in history received the TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" heavy "flamethrower" systems, and they will be used in the special operation zone in Ukraine, the Defense Ministry revealed. Colonel Alexei Goncharov, who heads the Airborne NBC Protection Troops, noted that these systems "have no equal in the collective West's arsenals," so they "induce panic among our enemies."

The heavy "flamethrower" system TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" (or in English “Scorching Sun”) is designed to incapacitate an enemy's lightly armored vehicles, cars, buildings, fortifications and manpower at a distance of up to six kilometers. It can create maximum temperature near the target around 3,000 degrees Celcius.

5. Views on the Hill: the USA needs not to fund aggression vs Russia

The United States need to be pushing for peace in Ukraine, not funding a proxy war with Russia, Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene said during an interview.

"We can't afford another foreign war," she said, pointing out that Ukraine was not a NATO member nation nor the 51st state of the US.

Last April, Russia sent a note of protest to NATO on account of its weapons deliveries to Ukraine. Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov said that any such deliveries would be a legitimate aim of the Russian military and that the NATO are "playing with fire."

6. Influx of Ukraine's cheap grain to Europe 'fuels anger, erodes support' for Kiev regime

The Istanbul Grain Deal was arranged by the UN and Turkiye between Russia and Ukraine in July 2022 to ease exports of grain and fertilizer from Black Sea ports amid the ongoing hostilities. It has since been extended twice, with Moscow warning that most vessels do not reach the world's poorest countries and end up in Europe.

Eastern member-states of the European Union are beginning to question continued support for Ukraine as they cope with a glut of grain that has been triggering anger among their communities, according to US media reports.

Europe was supposed to be a transit territory for Ukraine’s cheap and sometimes low quality grain, originally meant for poor countries in Africa, but the huge influx of duty-free imports is staying on the continent and, hitting local farmers in Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 227. U.S. military biolabs in Ukraine. State Duma concentrated opinion

April 11, 2023

1. The investigation will go on …

On 11 April, 2023 the State Duma, Lower House of the Russian Parliament, approved the Final Report of the Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry into the U.S. Biolaboratories in Ukraine. The report was presented by the co-chair of the Commission, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Irina Yarovaya, and the heads of the relevant Committees, as well as representatives of the MoD and the MFA of Russia.  


Based on the investigation, a 200-page document was compiled, in which the facts of criminal activity of the USA in Ukraine were recorded.


The U.S. established more than 50 laboratories on the territory of Ukraine, where secret research and experiments on Ukrainian citizens were conducted. "As a result of the military-biological occupation, Ukraine itself has become a hotbed of dangerous diseases, including those of unclear origin," the Deputy Chairman of the State Duma noted.

The U.S. supports and develops the ability to create components of biological weapons and the ability to use them outside of national territory, creates – and has in fact already created – a global military-biological network of laboratories to create biological risks and trigger epidemics and – worst of all – control population numbers," Irina Yarovaya stressed. She also pointed out that the USA and Ukraine violated the basic provisions of the UN Convention on the Prohibition of Biological Weapons (or BWC) and the norms of international humanitarian law.

Chairman of the Committee on Security and Counteraction to Corruption Vasily Piskarev informed that the Commission received eyewitness testimonies, including employees of the Security Service and the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, who were retrained at special state military institutions and whose duties included dangerous activity at the above-mentioned U.S. military biolaboratories in Ukraine.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov noted that the Foreign Ministry was actively cooperating with the Parliament and the Commission in this investigation.  "What happened in Ukraine is a blatant example of how the U.S. in practice, under the guise of biological activities for prophylactic and other peaceful purposes, implements projects outside its territory aimed at the development of biological weapons components," he noted.

Igor Kirillov, the Russian MoD, said that the Defense Ministry analyzed more than two thousand documents confirming the implementation of the US/Ukrainian military-biological projects in Ukraine. "None of the facts voiced by the Defense Ministry were rejected by the USA. No one, including Western countries, had any doubts about the authenticity of the published documents," he stressed.

The Commissioner for Human Rights in the Russian Federation, Tatyana Moskalkova, believed that the Parliamentary Commission has done a tremendous and credible job. She also suggested continuing it and expanding the geography of the investigation. "The establishment by the USA of biological testing laboratories on the territory of Ukraine and the actual deployment of biological weapons is a gross, cynical and large-scale violation of human rights," she said.

The Commission proposed that the Russian MFA should continue to initiate an international investigation and fill the BWC with real tools of control; expand the range of assessments of U.S.-created biological threats; ensure protection of the lives and health of Russian citizens; assess the effectiveness of existing monitoring and departmental regulatory framework in the sphere of biosafety; create an inter-faction Working Group on biosecurity, and appeal to the Parliaments of other countries to help to suppress a joint military bioactivity conducted by Ukraine and the USA.

2. Another wave of church raids swept through Ukraine

Tensions continue to mount in the standoff between the clergy and the Ukrainian government over the Kiev Pechersk Lavra.

It was established in 1051 – ten years earlier than St. Mark's Basilica in Venice, three centuries before the world-famous Notre Dame Cathedral, and four centuries before the Cathedral of Santa Maria del Fiore in Florence. The Russian Orthodox shrine is twice as old as St. Peter’s Basilica in the Vatican.

The Kiev Pechersk Lavra, a major Orthodox shrine regarded as the third of the Four Earthly Domains of the Most Holy Mother of God, has lived through both bright and dark times in its thousand-year history. The monastery has survived the Mongol invasion, Polish religious persecution, Napoleon and Hitler's wars, and the rule of the fiercely atheist Bolsheviks. The walls of the monastery preserved their centuries-old heritage and the monks persevered in prayer.


So, the Lavra survived many wars and sieges. Can it withstand a cruel Zelensky mistakenly supported by the West?


Illegal and inhuman church raids are conducted in other parts of Ukraine.

In the city of Khmelnitsky, dissenters from the Orthodox Church of Ukraine seized the St. George's Church of the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church, the St. Michael's Cathedral in Shepetivka in the Khmelnitsky Region, the Church of the Nativity of the Virgin Mary in Starokonstantinov, and tried to storm the Alexander Nevsky Cathedral and the nearby Church of Martyrs Faith, Hope, Love and Their Mother Sophia in Kamenets-Podolsky. In Berezan, near Kyiv, deputies of the local council confiscated land under the Christian churches.

A symbolic episode took place in Lipovets, Kiev Region, when during an attack on a church by dissenters, one of the invaders died suddenly when he tore the cross from the priest body and threw it on the ground. Apparently, God's punishment reached the attacker because nobody has ever touched him. The head of the press service of the Crimean Metropolis, Archpriest Vladimir Kashlyuk, commenting on the incident, pointed out that a person who desecrates shrines and raises his hand against God can be punished.


"Perhaps it was God's admonition. One is chosen, so that it would be indicative for all," the clergyman noted.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

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Report # 23. Kiev still hampers to resolve humanitarian issues

March 19th, 2022

1. Humanitarian issues still not resolved in many places

The Russian Federation, guided by the principles of international humanitarian law, conducts large-scale measures to provide comprehensive assistance to the population in the controlled areas of Ukraine, Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics.

On March 18th from 10AM the Russian Federation has already provided humanitarian corridors for the fifteenth time in Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov directions, along one humanitarian corridor to the Russian Federation, and one more through the territories controlled by the Kiev authorities towards the western borders of Ukraine.

Guided by purely humane principles, despite the cynicism of the Kiev authorities towards their citizens, who categorically do not allow to evacuate to the Russian Federation, and solely to save the lives of civilians in all possible ways, Moscow agreed to all the proposals of the Ukrainian side to set up additionally humanitarian corridors without any preconditions –  on Kiev, Sumy, Zaporozhie, Poltava and Kharkov directions.

On March 18th without any participation of the Ukrainian side, it was possible to safely evacuate 181 foreign citizens from nine countries to the Republic of Crimea in the Zaporozhie direction: 32 from Nigeria, 23 from Uzbekistan, 17 from Kazakhstan, 7 from Lebanon, 6 from Sri Lanka, 4 from Pakistan, and 1 from Serbia and Tunisia, as well as, paradoxically, 90 citizens of Ukraine.

Thanks to unprecedented security measures taken by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, it was possible to provide humanitarian corridors in the Kiev, Zhitomir and Kharkov directions and evacuate 3,399 people by buses and personal cars from various settlements.

The Russian side still keeps a sufficient number of vehicles ready at the checkpoints, including comfortable buses for transporting refugees to selected destinations, as well as to temporary accommodation points, where all citizens arriving on the territory of Russia are provided with three hot meals a day and medical assistance is provided around the clock.


2. Tragedy in Mariupol

There are some new facts related to the current tragedy in Mariupol.

The humanitarian operation there continues. On one hand, over the past day, 13,751 people have been evacuated from the city, and a total of 56,743 have been already evacuated so far.

On the other hand, according to radio intercepts, it has been reliably established that nationalists in the city are conducting intensive negotiations with Kiev to unblock Mariupol and send them support.

Over the past three days, the intensity of negotiations has increased significantly, while negotiations on both sides are taking place in extremely rough tones. The neo-nazi in Mariupol feel the hopelessness of the current situation, and Kiev understands the impossibility of providing any assistance. Thus, the nationalists have more than 200,000 people of the civilian population, whom they can use as a "human shield". This position has been agreed with the leadership of Ukraine.

Understanding the content and consequences of these negotiations, Russia officially appealed to the Kiev authorities and two days ago brought that Moscow is ready to open humanitarian corridors and release all neo-nazi factions in any direction in order to save the city and those people, who have already glorified themselves with the explosions of a kindergarten, two schools, a maternity hospital and a drama theater building. At the same time, Russia guaranteed the life of nationalists who will laid down their weapons, and provide a humanitarian corridor for their exit to the territories controlled by Kiev.

Unfortunately, in response, Russia received a categorical refusal from high officials of Kiev even for such generous offer.

One can only guess about the next steps of desperate gangs who have lost their minds and understand their complete hopelessness, while horrifying pictures of the possible consequences of these actions are emerging. That is why, Russian side warned the entire civilized world in advance, international organizations, primarily the UN, the OSCE, the International Committee of the Red Cross about sad and tragic consequences Kiev’s approach to the issue of refugees in Ukraine.


3. Kiev’s violence versus Ukrainian civilians

The Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine continues to record numerous facts of violence against civilians and in other localities not only in Mariupol, but in some other places which continues to be held by neo-nazi as a "human shield".

Here are just some of them over the past day:

In Chernihov, the militants of nationalist battalions, under threat of physical violence, take away the last food from the local population, including those received as humanitarian aid.

In Zaporozhie, the nationalist-minded authorities forcibly distribute Molotov cocktails to the residents of the city and call on the civilian population to throw them at Russian troops, thereby cynically pushing people to imminent death.

In Kharkov, the Ukrainian nationalists fired at the place of delivery of humanitarian aid.

In addition, in Severodonetsk, nationalist formations and foreign mercenaries defending themselves together with territorial defence reservists forcibly placed the local population around occupied residential buildings, and citizens who refused to leave shelters and go out into the streets were simply shot.

Independent exit of people from settlements is strictly suppressed. Local residents, taken to the basements of residential buildings, allegedly to escape from Russian air strikes, are in appalling unsanitary conditions, lack of food and water, without electricity and under the influence of lies fabricated by the Ukrainian authorities about blocking humanitarian corridors.

All these facts once again testify to the genocide of the Kiev authorities against their own people and complete indifference to the fate of millions of ordinary people.

Unfortunately, all our persistent appeals to the Ukrainian side about the opening of humanitarian corridors to Russia, as well as official appeals to international structures of the UNO, the OSCE, and the International Committee of the Red Cross, are still ignored to date. At the same time the Kiev authorities persistently continue to assert that there are no people willing to evacuate to the Russian Federation.


4. Situation at the battlefields

 On March 18th the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continued a special military operation.

The Kinzhal (Dagger) air-launched hypersonic ballistic missiles destroyed a large underground storage facility built for missiles and aviation ammunition of Ukrainian troops in Delyatin, Ivano-Frankovsk Region, Western Ukraine.

The Bastion coastal missile system destroyed the radio surveillance centers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Velikiy Dalnik and Velikodolynskoye, Odessa Region, South Ukraine.

In the night of March 19th, 69 Ukrainian key military assets were hit by Russian tactical, army and UAV aviation.

Among them: four command posts, including the brigade command post in Zabuyanye, four anti-aircraft missile systems, of which three S-300 and one Buk-M1, one radar guiding and targeting station, three multiple rocket launchers, 12 rocket and artillery weapons depots and 43 equipment accumulation sites.

In addition, air defence troops of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down 12 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the air.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation (February 24th, 2022), 196 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, 1,438 tanks and other ACVs, 145 MRLSs, 556 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,237 special military vehicles have been destroyed.

Kiev’s regime has placed 400 naval mines at the Black Sea that can sail freely across the Black Sea in any direction.


5. Lavrov on Russian-Ukrainian talks

March 19 (Interfax) - Moscow hopes that the special operation in Ukraine will end with the signing of comprehensive documents on security and Ukraine's neutral status, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on March 19th. He said: “I hope it will end with the signing of comprehensive documents on the matters I have mentioned, such as security, the neutral status of Ukraine with the guarantee of its security …”. In his words, that is the reason for the neutral status, security guarantees and, of course, laws must be brought into a civilized form. This applies to the Russian language, Russian-language education, Russian-language media outlets, laws abetting nazification of the country, and the adoption of a law to ban that. Such laws exist in a number of European countries, including Germany.

 

 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

 

Report # 230. US urged Ukraine to pull back from Artyomovsk

April 21. 2023

 

1.The USA warned Kiev about the risk of its troop encirclement in Artyomovsk

The USA has been warning Kiev since last January that its forces would not be able to hold on to the key Donbass city named Artyomovsk (Bakhmut in Ukrainian), and has repeatedly urged a withdrawal, The Washington Post reported on April 20, citing leaked US intelligence documents.

According to the “top secret” assessment, Washington believes that Russia’s “steady” advances in the region since November 2022 have jeopardized Ukraine’s ability to retain control of Artyomovsk and that Ukrainian troops are “at risk of encirclement, unless they withdraw within the next month.”


Such U.S. warnings sent to Kiev are well grounded: 2 months ago Russian troops held nearly 70% of the city, while now they control more than 90%


An earlier report from German news outlet Bild suggested that many Ukrainian troops are not convinced Artyomovsk is worth clinging on to, and are “tense and worried” as Russia takes over the city street by street. Freelance journalist Jan Humin described the situation in the city as “hell” and stated that it was only “a matter of time” before the town was completely captured.

Ukrainian supply lines to the city are tightly blocked by Russian artillery and aircraft fire including 500 kg and 1,500 kg air-dropped bombs and high-tech rockets.  Approximately, 300-500 AFU servicemen who dared to attack Donbass since April 2014 and now Artyomovsk (also located in Donbass) are being terminated by Russian paratroopers and Wagner private military company whose operational war skills and high motivation NATO member-states failed to undermine via false mass media and neo-Nazi supporters.

2. NATO agreed that Ukraine should be its member, but after victory

All NATO member states agreed that Ukraine should join the alliance, but only after it wins in the armed conflict with Russia, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on April 21.

He made the statement as he arrived at US Ramstein Air Base in Germany before a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group that will consider new supplies of more deadly weapons to Kiev killing both Ukrainians and Russians.

"All NATO Allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member," he said in comments broadcast by the Alliance. But he added "if Ukraine doesn't prevail as a sovereign, independent nation in Europe, there is no meaning in discussing [Ukrainian] membership."


Russia inevitably will react very negatively against such irrational action. Surely there will be a real and strong miliary countermove to be made by the Russian Armed Forces to such hostile and dangerous scheme


NATO announcement that Ukraine should be its member, but only after its victory means that Kiev will never join the Alliance because it will not be able to celebrate ‘a V-day’ during a massive aggression against Ukrainians and Russians it began after the deliberate incitement from the most militant NATO circles.

3. Ukrainian police and security agents continued intimidation of Orthodox Christians

Members of the Ukrainian "liquidation commission" sent to the Kiev Pechersk Lavra burst into its buildings together with the police and security agents, sealing off Building 49 and finding "architectural disturbances" demanded as grounds for expelling the monks.

In order to break the resistance of the Lavra's Orthodox defenders, the Ukrainian Interior Ministry is filing criminal cases against them under the article "Resistance to police." A human rights activist Victoria Kokhanovskaya has been detained for the purpose of ‘intimidating them’.

The Ukrainian Orthodox Christians leader, Patriarch Pavel, is still under house arrest hearing unjustified and false accusations.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 231. RoK sends deadly arms to Poland. Thus, it helps Poland to send Polish-made deadly weapons to Kiev

 

April 24, 2023

1. South Korea downplays claims it could arm Ukraine. But it does via Poland

South Korea does not arm Ukraine since it does not want to alienate Russia, Yonhap news agency has reported. The outlet quoted an unnamed official who clarified that a recent remark by President Yoon Suk-yeol about providing Kiev with lethal aid was made “in hypothetical terms.” The comments came after former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev posted a message on his Telegram channel on April 19, warning that Russia could respond by sending its state-of-the-art weapons to North Korea. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, for his part, labelled South Korea’s “quite unfriendly positions” vis-a-vis Russia which have already manifested themselves in illegal sanctions against Moscow.


However, claiming that RoK does not send its arms to Ukraine directly, Seoul actually transports them to Poland who in its turn transfers a lot of its own arms to Ukraine compensating them by a huge basket of South Korean weapons.


 Since late July 2022, Poland has inked agreements with South Korea to purchase 1,000 K2 tanks, 672 K9 self-propelled howitzers, and 48 FA-50 light combat aircraft, along with 288 MLRS.

Poland on October 20, 2022  accepted the first batch of its new South Korean-made tanks and howitzers at a ceremony in Seoul, while signing yet another weapons deal with local industry. The Polish Government delegation, led by Mariusz Błaszczak, Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense, on October 17, participated in the delivery ceremony for the first K2 Black Panther tanks and K9A1 Thunder self-propelled howitzers, and to sign a new K239 Chunmoo multiple rocket artillery system supply contract.

According to the spokesman of the Polish Armaments Agency, Lt. Colonel Krzysztof Płatek, 10 K2s and 24 K9A1s will be delivered to Poland later this year, which will allow the start of staff training in Poland. The first K2 tanks will be delivered to Morąg, where the 20th Bartoszyce Mechanized Brigade is based. In turn, in Ostróda, an additional tank battalion will be created, subordinated to this brigade. Ultimately, the 16th Division is planned to consist of four brigades, as it is planned to transform into a part of the 11th Masurian Artillery Regiment, which will also receive the first batch of K9A1 howitzers.

Poland’s MND signed executive contracts for the supply of K2 Black Panther tanks and K9A1 Thunder self-propelled howitzers on August 26 this year. For 180 K2 tanks in the Korean configuration, together with the ammunition, training and logistics package, Poland will pay approximately PLN 16 billion ($3.26 billion), with deliveries to be completed by 2025. And the cost of purchasing 212 K9A1 howitzers together with the ammunition, training and logistics package will be approximately $2.32 billion.

The same day as the ceremony in Seoul, a framework agreement was inked between Poland and South Korea on delivery of 288 K239 Chunmoo K-MLRS (Korean  MLRS) units, designed by South Korea’s Hanwha, to the Polish Land Forces.

Deputy Minister of Defense for Force and Resource Management of the Republic of Korea Dongjoon Yoo Lim and Deputy Minister of the Defense Purchase Planning Agency Il Sung were joined by Błaszczak to sign the agreement — with the Polish minister directly tying the decision to buy Korean to a lack of production availability from the USA. “In 2019, an agreement with the United States to acquire the HIMARS for the Polish Armed Forces was signed. The delivery of this equipment is scheduled for the next year. We submitted an inquiry for larger deliveries, but unfortunately due to limited industrial capabilities, it will not be possible for the equipment to be delivered in a satisfactory timeframe. Therefore, we started talks with South Korea, our reliable partner, which resulted in the signing of a framework contract for the delivery of K239 Chunmoo today,” Błaszczak stated during the ceremony.

“Chunmoo have very similar characteristics to the HIMARS. It is a very good weapon, it is very good equipment, and I think that our joint Polish-Korean success is that the first Chunmoo squadron will be delivered to Poland next year. Our next success is that this Chunmoo squadron will be built on Polish Jelcz trucks, that are being built by the Polish Armaments Group. It will also be equipped with Polish communications and the battlefield management system, which will ensure that it will be operational also next year,” he added.

According to Płatek, the armaments spokesman, the first squadron of 18 Chunmoo, on Jelcz truck chassis and equipped with Topaz system, will be delivered to Poland in 2023 and will be subordinated to the 18th Mechanized Division, to be equipped with Abrams tanks. The delivery date of the remaining launchers was not disclosed. Along with the K239s, in the first stage of the program a supply of ammunition will also be purchased, which will cover a total of several thousand 239mm guided rockets (having a range of about 80 km) and 600mm KTSSM-II tactical ballistic missiles (having a range of approximately 290km). Ultimately, both types of ammunition are to be produced in Poland. The purchase of support vehicles, including command and ammunition vehicles, and technology transfer is also planned.


So, South Korea is a participant in the Ukrainian/NATO aggression against Russia and against Russian citizens


2. The IAEA chief again cannot identify who is shelling ZNPP

Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said on April 20 he was "deeply concerned" over the security situation at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant or ZNPP, as the IAEA experts present there had reported about hearing explosions almost every day for the past week. Now ZNPP is a Russian property.

Strange ability of not identifying who is constantly shelling the station. The second rather peculiar public revelation that came recently from Rafael Grossi is: “Depleted uranium produces no harm to human beings”. And after all such facts his duties as the head of the IAEA have been extended for the second term? Yes, they have been. But it is more than strange.

3. Kiev intends to sell state-run companies

Ukraine is looking for "brave" investors as it seeks to sell big state-run companies at distressed prices to raise funds for its aid-dependent budget, Bloomberg reported on April 20, citing the head of the State Property Fund (SPF), Rustem Umerov.

Currently, more than 3,500 companies are listed as state-owned with almost 1,800 of them bankrupt and non-functional. The list for privatization includes distilleries and grain elevators, ammonia factory, titanium and titanium-magnesium producer plant, insulin manufacturer, as well as hundreds of abandoned facilities.

Kiev is hoping to earn over $400 million by selling companies. All of them will go under the hammer in the third quarter of 2023. Does it mean that the Ukrainian/NATO aggression against Russia will be over?

Kiev bosses have also sold 17 million hectares of agricultural lands, manly to the Americans.

As a famous radio commentator Vladimir Sinelnikov once observed: “Ukraine became a state that has left noting to either Ukrainian state or to Ukrainian people”.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 234. Tragic anniversary of the Odessa massacre by neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine

May 2, 2023

1. Statement by the Odessa Solidarity Campaign on the 9th anniversary of the Odessa Massacre

Each year, the Odessa Solidarity Campaign has promoted actions on May 2 to mark the date in 2014 when a right-wing mob led by openly fascist organizations murdered at least 42 anti-fascists at the House of Trade Unions in Odessa, Ukraine.

The Odessa Massacre took place just a few months after the violent coup that replaced a pro-Russian president with a pro-U.S. one. Not surprisingly, the U.S. was heavily involved in promoting the coup.

Today Ukraine has an authoritarian government that openly collaborates with neo-Nazi organizations, incorporating them into its military and promoting the memory of Ukrainian fascists who shamefully collaborated with the World War II Nazi occupation of their country. The birthday of the notorious Nazi collaborator Stefan Bandera is now a national holiday. His image graces a national stamp. Major streets have been renamed in his honor and Bandera statues have replaced monuments to Soviet war heroes.

For years, relatives of those who were murdered on May 2, 2014, regularly visited the site of the massacre and kept repeating their demand for an international investigation into the atrocity, something the Ukrainian government has never allowed. Today it is impossible for them to come into the streets without risking arrest or physical attacks.

The Odessa Solidarity Campaign was founded in 2016 to support the anti-fascist people of Odessa, and now Ukraine as a whole. That was the year we traveled to Odessa to stand with the Council of Mothers of May 2 as they defied threats of attack by the same fascist organizations that had murdered their daughters and sons. 

Today, as the world is inundated with pro-U.S. and pro-NATO propaganda about the war in Ukraine, we believe it is more important than ever to keep alive the memory of the Odessa Massacre and the fact that not all Ukrainians support the current reactionary government and its pro-U.S./NATO stance.

We are asking that all freedom-loving people everywhere please post this message on your websites and social media sites along with the above graphic that was created by a young Ukrainian to promote the anti-fascist message. Please make the graphic your Facebook image for the day and share it on your Instagram, Tic-Toc and Twitter accounts.

And as for the war itself, we call on the U.S. and NATO, which are responsible for provoking this devastating confrontation, to stop sending arms to Ukraine and stop using the Ukrainian people as cannon fodder in their proxy war against Russia.

Remember the Odessa Massacre!

U.S. Out of Ukraine! NATO Out of Existence!

If you or your organization post this message and/or graphic, please let us know:

ODESSA SOLIDARITY CAMPAIGN
PO Box 23202, Richmond, VA 23223 - USA
Phone/Text: 1-804-644-5845

 

 

Note: 1) some witnesses during May 2, 2014 massacre claim that the number of killed was more than 42;

          2) on May 2,2023 many demonstrators in Moscow marked that day with a motto “We will remember”.

 

2. Why the UN SG used a vague formula in the Grain Deal Memorandum?

There are no tangible results that would indicate that Russia's demands under the Black Sea Grain Initiative have been met, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin said, speaking about the prospects for extending the deal beyond May 18, 2023. Russia is "being told about the efforts," he said, adding that the country appreciates the efforts, "but we need results, and there are no results."

The Black Sea Grain Initiative signed on 22 July 2022 in Istanbul has two documents. The first one is the Agreement between the Russian Federation, Turkey, Ukraine and the United Nations. The second one is the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the Russian Federation and the UN Secretary-General or SG Antonio Guterres to facilitate unimpeded exports of Russian food and fertilizer to the world markets. The ideas on the MoU with Russia were formulated by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in such a way that he is not responsible for the implementation of the deal with the Russian side.

There are some major setbacks in the MoU.

In paragraph 2 of the respective MoU with Russia on deliveries of food and fertilizer it is written: “The [UNO] Secretariat agrees to continue efforts to promote transparent and unhindered deliveries of food and fertilizer ...”.

First of all, there is no word like “Russia” in the sentence “…unhindered deliveries of food and fertilizer ….”. Second, such formula is a very vague: “The [UNO] Secretariat agrees to continue efforts to promote transparent and unhindered deliveries ….”. The UN Secretariat can say everywhere that it continued efforts to promote transparent and unhindered deliveries of food and fertilizer. But it was useless due to other factors.


Till now, no one gram of Russian food or fertilizer have been delivered to

the poor nations in need. NATO and the EU still block the deal for Russia. Even when Moscow promised to deliver fertilizer free of charge


 

That is why the UN Note to Correspondents said on March 13, 2023: “The UN Secretary-General has confirmed that the UN will do everything possible to preserve the integrity of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and ensure its continuity”. Such empty statements can be repeated many times.

Paragraph 4 sounds very strange: “This Memorandum is not an international treaty, and does not create any rights or obligations under international law”.


Russia has twice extended the deal without any tangible results though in all cases the UN SG promised to bring it about


Can such MoU be implemented if it is not considered as an international agreement, and does not create any rights or obligations under international law?

There is a serious doubt that it will be implemented at all.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 24. Carefully calibrated OPN: Kinzhal and Kalibr are used

March 20th, 2022

1. Humanitarian operation: major events

Russia exerts every effort to evacuate the local population and foreign citizens to safe areas and to implement a set of measures to restore daily life in the territories of Ukraine liberated from Ukrainian extremists.

To this end, from 10AM every day humanitarian corridors have been opened in the directions of Kiev, Mariupol, Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov, one to Russia and one more through Kiev-controlled territories towards Ukraine's western borders.

Of the routes Russia proposed, the Ukrainian authorities again agreed on only three, and no humanitarian corridor to the Russian territory is still confirmed by official Kiev.

At the same time the Ukrainian side announced 11 additional humanitarian corridors for the current day - in the Kiev, Zaporozhye, Kherson and Kharkov directions.

On the basis of humane principles, in order to ensure the evacuation of civilians forcibly held by nationalists in blockaded settlements, the Russian Armed Forces fully observe the ceasefire along all routes, including those declared by Kiev.

In the past 24 hours, without assistance of the Kiev authorities, 16,394 people were evacuated to Russia from dangerous areas of Ukraine, Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics, including 3,129 children.

In total since the beginning of the special military operation (February 24th, 2022) already 314,252 refugees, of which 66,594 were children, have been saved and evacuated. 1,784 private motor vehicles crossed the state border of the Russian Federation, and a total of 36,710.

The Russian Federation's Joint Coordination Headquarters for the Humanitarian Response in Ukraine continues to document numerous cases of violence against civilians by Ukrainian nationalists.

Some of them over the past day were as follows:

a) radicals operating on the Chernigov-Kiev highway, under the pretext of collecting funds for the UAF, forcibly take money from civilians at  a rate they imposed with these rates being five times higher for anyone trying to travel toward Russia, and the most cynical thing is that if people do not have money to pay “a check-point fare” their cars are confiscated and people are sent back on foot;

b) in Sumy, at the Sumykhimprom chemical plant, nationalists mined storage facilities with ammonia and chlorine with the aim of mass poisoning of residents of the Sumy region, in case of entry into the city of units of the Russian Armed Forces;

c) in the village of Kotlyarovo, Nikolaev Region, militants of nationalist groups are preparing provocations using toxic chemicals. For this purpose, canisters with toxic chemicals have already been delivered to the local elementary school, and it is planned to blow them up when the Russian troops arrive.

Russian MoD warn the entire civilized world and international organizations in advance of the cynical provocations prepared by the Ukrainian authorities.

All this is happening with the direct support of the U.S. leadership and a number of European Union countries, which view Ukraine as an instrument of anti-Russian policy.

A significant part of the population forcibly detained by radicals in Ukrainian cities is still looking for any opportunity to evacuate to Russia, as evidenced by numerous appeals by citizens to official structures, NGOs, directly to the subjects of our country, to family and friends, as well as acquaintances who live in the Russian Federation.

According to the results of daily monitoring it was established that only during the last day 7,223 such appeals were received, and all in all there are already totally 2,711,319 names and specific features of people wishing to settle down in Russia in the database from two thousand ninety-three settlements of Ukraine. More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centers continue to operate in the regions of the Russian Federation. The Russian side still keeps a sufficient number of vehicles ready at the checkpoints, including buses for transporting refugees to selected destinations, as well as to temporary accommodation points, where all citizens arriving on the territory of Russia are provided with three hot meals a day and medical assistance is provided around the clock.

Despite the humanitarian corridors opening daily, Ukrainian nationalists continue to hold more than 4,500,000 civilians as a "human shield" in Kiev, Kharkov, Chernigov, Sumy and more than 20 other blocked large settlements, as well as 6,830 foreign citizens from 19 states and the crews of 70 foreign vessels, blocked in the seaports of Ukraine.

Russian federal executive authorities together with the subjects of Russia, various NGOs and patriotic movements have prepared more than 16.5 thousand tons of humanitarian aid. More than 20 tons of basic necessities, food and medicines have been prepared at the collection points.

The Russian side delivered 3,619 tons of cargo to the settlements of the Lugansk and Donetsk people's republics, Kiev, Zaporozhye, Chernigov, Kharkov and Kherson regions during 464 humanitarian actions. To date, 52 humanitarian actions have been planned and are currently being carried out in Zaporozhia, Chernigov, Kiev, Kharkov and Kherson regions, in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, during which 280 tons of basic necessities, medicine and food will be distributed.

On March 20th president Zelensky banned eleven opposition parties in Ukraine. He also extended martial law in Ukraine from March 26th for extra 30 days.

2. Russian offensive operation vs extremists

In the meantime, Russian forces, as well as the DPR and LPR militias, continue to advance in Donbass, tightening the encirclement around the remaining Ukrainian radicals in Mariupol and taking control over multiple settlements.

The grouping of troops of the Donetsk People's Republic, developing an offensive, took full control of Stepnoye and is pursuing the retreating units of the 53rd separate mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF). Up to 25 personnel, 2 tanks, 2 infantry fighting vehicles and 5 all-terrain vehicles were destroyed. In Novoselovka Vtoraya direction, the units of the Donetsk Republic have advanced to a depth of 3 kilometers, crossed the Kamenka - Verkhnetoretskoye road, and are fighting with the 1st airborne battalion of the 25th separate airborne brigade of the UAF.

During the night, most of Verkhnetoretskoye settlement was taken under control, where battles are being fought with the 2nd battalion of the same brigade. In total, up to 40 personnel, 5 armored personnel carriers and 4 all-terrain vehicles were destroyed there. Offensive actions continue.

In the evening of March 19th and in the morning of March 20th, high-precision long-range weapons attacked Ukraine's military infrastructure.

A large fuel storage base of the UAF near Konstantinovka in Nikolaev Region was destroyed by Kalibr (Calibre) sea-based cruise missiles fired from the Caspian Sea, as well as by Kinzhal (Dagger) air-based hypersonic missiles from Crimea. This is the main base for supply Ukrainian armored vehicles with fuel in the south of Ukraine.

Kinzhal has been used for the first time in real combat environment in Ukraine.

Fired from the Black Sea, Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles destroyed workshops for repairing Ukrainian armored vehicles damaged in combat at the Nezhinsky repair plant.

Kalibr has been successfully used in Syria vs terrorists.

During the night, operational-tactical and army aviation obliterated 62 military assets of the UAF. Among them: 3 command posts, 1 MRLSs, 2 missile and artillery weapons depots and 1 fuel depot, as well as 52 military equipment concentration zones.

Russian AAD shot down in the air: 1 Mi-8 helicopter of the Ukrainian Air Force near Kohannoye, 6 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, including 1 Bayraktar TB-2 near Shibennoye, as well as 1 Ukrainian Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile near Chistovodovka north of Izyum.

In total, from February 24th till now 207 unmanned aerial vehicles, 1,467 tanks and other ACVs, 148 MRLSs, 573 field artillery pieces and mortar guns, as well as 1,262 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed since the beginning of the special military operation.

Ukrainian Security Service officer who defected recently confessed that “Azov” nationalist battalion planned to stage a number of terrorist actions in Lvov, Western Ukraine, versus the U.S. and other Western Embassies there.

3. The fate of mercenaries backing neo-nazi in Ukraine

Russia has repeatedly warned foreign countries against allowing their citizens to travel to Ukraine in order to take part in the hostilities, stressing that anyone firing at Russian troops during the special op will be considered a valid target.

High-precision air-launched missiles struck the training center of the Ukrainian special operations forces near Ovruch settlement of Zhytomir Region, where foreign mercenaries who arrived in Ukraine were based. More than 100 special operations forces servicemen and mercenaries were killed.

This is the second major strike by the Russian military targeting foreign mercenaries in Ukraine: a week ago, up to 180 foreign mercenaries were killed in precision strikes against Ukrainian training ground located at the Yavorovsky military compound and near the settlement of Starichi.

It is a pity that some countries are sending their citizens as the “soldiers of fortune” into Ukraine to help ultra-nationalists. Very frequently they are becoming “soldiers of misfortune”. Ten ammo rounds per assault rifle shared with them – that is all the UAF can afford them today, and less tomorrow.

Food for thought: “The West, and especially America, is principally responsible for the crisis which began in February 2014. It has now turned into a war that not only threatens to destroy Ukraine, but also has the potential to escalate into a nuclear war between Russia and NATO”. John J. Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago//The Economist. March 19th, 2022// https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/03/11/john-mearsheimer-on-why-the-west-is-principally-responsible-for-the-ukrainian-crisis

 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 241. AFU again used Storm Shadow ALCM against Donbass

May 15,2023

1. Russian air defenses downed one Storm Shadow ALCM delivered by the UK

Russian AAD forces shot down a Storm Shadow long-range cruise missile over the past day, Defense Ministry spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov reported on May 15, 2023.


"During the last 24-hour period, air defense capabilities intercepted seven HARM anti-radar missiles, a Storm Shadow long-range cruise missile and 10 rockets of the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system," he announced.


It was the third attempt made by Kiev to use such missiles against civilians living in Lugansk People’s Republic, the Russian Federation. The first two Storm Shadows have been used on May 12 in Lugansk, the second was fired on May 13 against town of Jubileiny when an old woman was injured and seven living buildings were damaged.

It is a vivid example that London started a wide-range and open national escalation of a combined Ukrainian/NATO aggression against the Russian Federation. London officially confirmed delivering Storm Shadow weapons to Ukraine last week, which were promptly used to attack the city of Lugansk.

2. Developments on the battlefield

"Twenty-one Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed in areas near the settlements of Novopokrovka, Vodyanoye and Rabotino in the Zaporozhye Region, Lyubimovka and Novaya Kakhovka in the Kherson Region, Gorlovka, Peski and Volodino in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Kremennaya and Novokrasnyanka in the Lugansk People’s Republic," the spokesman clarified.

Russian forces destroyed 145 Ukrainian troops in Kupyansk area

In the Kupyansk direction, aircraft and artillery of the western battlegroup struck the enemy units in areas near the settlements of Berestovoye and Sinkovka in the Kharkov Region. The enemy’s losses in that area amounted to 145 Ukrainian personnel, two armored combat vehicles, three motor vehicles, two Gvozdika motorized artillery systems and a D-20 howitzer, the spokesman said.

During the past night, Russian forces neutralized three Ukrainian subversive/reconnaissance groups in the Kharkov Region, the general added.

Russian forces obliterated over 75 Ukrainian troops in Krasny Liman area

"Over 75 Ukrainian personnel, two armored combat vehicles, three pickup trucks, a Gvozdika motorized artillery system and a D-30 howitzer were destroyed in the past 24 hours," the general reported.In the Krasny Liman direction, operational/tactical and army aviation and artillery from the battlegroup Center inflicted damage on the Ukrainian manpower and equipment near the settlement of Nevskoye in the Lugansk People’s Republic, the spokesman said.

Russian forces destroyed 235 Ukrainian troops, mercenaries in Donetsk sector

"During the last 24-hour period, the enemy’s losses totaled as many as 235 Ukrainian personnel and mercenaries, one tank, four armored combat vehicles, seven motor vehicles, and also D-20, D-30 and Msta-B howitzers," the spokesman said.

Russian assault teams pressed ahead with offensive in western Artyomovsk

"In the Donetsk direction, the tensest battles continued to be carried out by the assault teams in the western outskirts of the city of Artyomovsk and also by the units of the 4th motorized infantry brigade near the settlement of Krasnoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.

Russian operational/tactical and army aviation and artillery struck the enemy units in areas near the settlements of Chasov Yar and Bogdanovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic, the general specified. "The aircraft flew seven sorties in that area in the past 24 hours. The battlegroup’s artillery accomplished 72 firing objectives," the general reported.

Russian forces eliminated over 150 Ukrainian troops in southern Donetsk, Zaporozhye areas

In the southern Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, aircraft and artillery from Russia’s battlegroup East struck the Ukrainian army units near the settlements of Vodyanoye and Ugledar in the Donetsk People’s Republic, the spokesman specified. "The enemy’s losses in those directions in the past 24 hours amounted to over 150 Ukrainian personnel and five motor vehicles," he said.

Russian forces destroyed 30 Ukrainian troops, armored vehicle in Kherson sector

Russian forces destroyed roughly 30 Ukrainian troops and an armored combat vehicle in the Kherson area over the past day, Konashenkov reported. "In the Kherson direction, as many as 30 Ukrainian personnel, an armored combat vehicle and four motor vehicles were destroyed in the past 24 hours as a result of damage inflicted by firepower," the spokesman said.

Russian forces eliminate two Ukrainian subversive groups in LPR

"Units of the 76th Air Assault Division eliminated two subversive/reconnaissance groups in the area of the settlement of Chervonaya Dibrova in the Lugansk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.

Russian combat aircraft downed Ukrainian Mi-24, Mi-8 helicopters

Russian combat aircraft shot down two Ukrainian military helicopters in the Donetsk People’s Republic over the past day, Konashenkov reported. "Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down Ukrainian Air Force Mi-24 and Mi-8 helicopters near the settlements of Selidovo and Brusovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.

Russian forces wiped out US-made counter-battery radar in DPR

Russian forces destroyed a US-made counter-battery radar in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) over the past day, Konashenkov reported. "In the area of the settlement of Krivaya Luka in the Donetsk People’s Republic, a US-manufactured AN/TPQ-37 counter-battery radar was destroyed," the spokesman said.


In the past 24 hours operational/tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery of the Russian group of forces struck 68 Ukrainian artillery units at firing positions, manpower and military hardware in 97 areas.


 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Report # 245. Ukrainian saboteurs raided Belgorod Region and lost over 70 men

May 23, 2023

1. Kiev is seeking to divert attention from the fall of Artyomovsk/Bakhmut

On May 22 after the intense shelling of Kozinka international checkpoint, as well as a number of other civilian facilities in Grayvoron District of Belgorod Region, a unit of a Ukrainian nationalist formation entered the territory of the Russian Federation. 12 civilians were injured. The news about the raid was first broken by Vyacheslav Gladkov, the region’s governor, who informed that the Russian military, the National Guard, border patrol agents and Federal Security Service have taken all the necessary measures to destroy the enemy.

The raid into this region followed a similar hit-and-run attack on Russia’s Bryansk Region in early March 2023.


The reason for this recent intrusion is: Kiev regime, considerably defeated in Artyomovsk/Bakhmut, started to carry out terrorist actions against civilians in other areas inside Russia.


The rebuff was very strong: in the course of the counter-terrorist operation, as a result of air strikes, artillery fire and active action by the units of the Western Military District that covered the state border, the nationalist formations have been blocked and pushed back into Ukraine. The remaining nationalists were attacked on the Ukrainian territory where they have been completely eliminated by a heavy fire.


The enemy losses were over 70 Ukrainian terrorists, four armored fighting vehicles and five pickup trucks.


 

Russian military experts urged the Government to seal all the borders with Ukraine, to distribute side arms for regular civilian patrol, to recreate the Border Troops as a separate branch of the Russian Armed Forces, and to destroy inside Ukraine all military bases of the AFU who send terrorist groups into Russian territory.

2. Putin congratulated troops on battlefield success

The Russian president has praised Wagner PMC and regular Army servicemen for completing the capture of Artyomovsk/Bakhmut. According to the MoD, the operation was completed with an assault by Wagner fighters, who had artillery and air support from regular Russian troops.

Western propaganda machine tried to create a ballyhoo over alleged ‘disagreement’ between Russian military establishment and Wagner PMC. However, the liberation of this city by joint employment of the Russian Army and Wagner fighters proved that all such stories were primitive propaganda tricks.

3. Russia criticized the USA for ‘approval’ of Ukrainian strikes on Crimea

A Ukrainian strike on Russia’s Crimean Peninsula will be regarded as seriously as an attack on any other part of the nation, Anatoly Antonov, Moscow’s ambassador to the USA, warned on May 21. He went on to warn Washington against “thoughtless judgments on Crimea, especially in terms of ‘blessing’ the Kiev regime for air attacks” on the peninsula. The envoy added that Russia will view strikes on Crimea "as an attack on any other region of the Russian Federation," and called on the US to consider potential response measures from Russia.


The  White House “has never been interested in peace,” Antonov noted.


 

Sullivan’s remarks likewise triggered outrage from Crimean Deputy Prime Minister Georgy Muradov, who opined that by allowing Ukraine to use US-made planes to target the peninsula, the White House had “agreed to unleashing a nuclear war.”

His comments came after US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan voiced no objections to Ukraine hitting targets in Crimea, which overwhelmingly voted to join Russia in 2014 after a Western-backed coup in Kiev aimed at entrenching a neo-Nazi regime. Speaking to CNN, Sullivan explained that “we have not placed limitations on Ukraine being able to strike on its territory…”.

4. Hungary and Germany clashed over blocked Ukraine military aid

Hungary and the FRG exchanged some verbal broadsides during a closed-door Foreign Ministers’ gathering in Brussels, a US media report stated.

Specifically, the exchange was triggered by the role of the OTP Bank (the National Savings and Commercial Bank of Hungary) in the Ukraine conflict. Hungary, which has been opposing Europe's arms supplies to the Kiev regime for prolonging the conflict, has refused to approve more EU military aid for Ukraine.

As Peter Szijjarto reiterated Budapest’s stance on the issue, his German counterpart, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, is described as referencing a spate of unspecified reports.

Last month, at an EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Luxembourg Peter Szijjarto yet again warned that delivery of military aid to Kiev only draws out the conflagration. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has repeatedly lambasted arms manufacturers, raking in massive profits, and Western economic circles who hope to lay their hands on Russia's rich natural resources as the ones interested in seeing the Ukraine conflict rage on.

Earlier, Budapest blocked the release of the eighth tranche of EU military aid to Ukraine worth 500 million euros ($543 million) via the European Peace Facility that has been renamed by opponents of the Ukrainian/NATO aggression against Russia as “European Aggression Facility”.

The EU has already injected more than 60 billion euros to keep up massive armed aggression of Ukraine/NATO – initially against Donbass and later versus Russia.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 246. Ukrainian ‘counteroffensive’. Has it started or not yet? Will it bring any success to Kiev if it begins it?

 

May 23, 2023

 

Speaking at a press conference following a G7 summit meeting in Hiroshima, Japan, on May 21.US President Joe Biden refused to discuss the details of the Ukrainian massive counteroperation, and also refrained from assessing the forces and means currently available to the Ukrainian army. "Even if I knew precisely, you think I'm going to tell you what they're going to do in terms of their offensive?" Biden joked with journalists.

He continued: “I wouldn't do that because that would mean it wouldn't succeed. But the fact is that we did discuss privately with Zelenskyy... Let me put it this way: we and our NATO allies know how many brigades they have trained, know what the status of those brigades are and have an expectation as to what their likelihood of succeeding are... I do know but I'm not going to tell you because that would not be a smart thing to do either”. [https://news.yahoo.com/biden-not-revealing-anything-regarding-145400486.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall]

No conflict in the world, regional or otherwise, is accompanied by the advance announcement of a major offensive by its forces. Never.

On the contrary: opposing armies conceal, disguise, create false attempts to start, fade their massive offensive/counteroffensive operations, and concentrate forces and warfare means in unrealistic directions to dupe the opposing army about their real intensions.

However, Ukraine has been announcing the notion that it would start massive Ukrainian/NATO offensive/counteroffensive operation – de facto a large-scale military aggression against Russia – since last January. Ukrainian military and political top guns proclaimed in January, February and in March this year, and even have set up April 30, 2023 as the date of launching such long-awaited large-scale operation/counteroperation by the Armed Forces of Ukraine or AFU.

Such confusing tactics of announcing or delaying dozen times the beginning of massive Ukrainian/NATO offensive/counteroffensive operation employed by Kiev made many observers to analyze: has such operation already or not yet?


There are two responses to this dilemma.


The first option is dealt with assumption, that massive Ukrainian/NATO offensive/counteroffensive operation has not started.

Yes, it looks like that it has not started. If we proceed from "negative indications", the absence of counteroffensive is proved by the quantity of the enemy's armored vehicles destroyed by the Russian Armed Forces. Russian Defense Ministry daily briefings containing objective data on how much Ukrainian/NATO heavy equipment and military aircraft has been destroyed in the last 24 hours. It is clear that not dozens of them are being destroyed during the reporting period, but only a few. Logically speaking, if such operation really begins the number of Ukrainian/NATO armed inventory and military aircraft will be deployed to a greater extend, and subsequently will be attacked and destroyed. Inevitably.

One more proof that massive Ukrainian/NATO offensive/counteroffensive operation has not started yet is that President Zelenskyy said the USA hasn’t adequately armed his forces properly and so, until then, the counteroffensive cannot begin.

The second option dealt with the actual massive Ukrainian/NATO offensive/counteroffensive operation should be prepared with more land-based and air-based inventory.

The first rule is that the enemy should have a big amount of the armored military hardware like tanks and armored vehicles like APCs, ACVs, ARVs plus Air Force, and so on. None of such arsenal has been observed so far on the battlefield or in the skies over Ukraine in great quantities.

Attempts to strike simultaneously in several directions, including diversionary maneuvers, require a large number of soldiers and the pulling in of reserves. Ukrainian Armed Forces does not have enough well-trained manpower capable to conduct massive Ukrainian/NATO offensive/counteroffensive operation. Too many Ukrainian GIs and foreign ‘soldiers of fortune’ have lost their lives since February 14, 2022 when Ukraine launched its direct and unprovoked aggression against Donbass. Too many Ukrainian troops perished during the battle in Artyomovsk/Bakhmut that started from April last year and ended with full victory of Russian Armed Forces and Wagner PMC that successfully coordinated their efforts at the highest military level.

Another important sign of a real counterattack is not the absence of munitions in the AFU. However, Ukrainian artillery men and foreign MRLS operators have used the respective munition irrationally. That is, the AFU does not have enough quantity of artillery/MRLS munitions to launch a large-scale operation That is why the EU and NATO promised to deliver more such munition to Kiev. E.g., the EU promised to supply a million rounds of ammunition for artillery systems and MLRS. But it is not known exactly when such stuff will be delivered to the aggressor. Their production is not like a ravioli-making machine.

Another issue is lack of the EU/NATO money need to conduct any massive Ukrainian/NATO offensive/counteroffensive operation. The U.S. has only $6 billion left out of the aid package amounting around $47 billion. But that amount of appropriation is certainly not enough. The Americans have said that they have only nothing left of that big ‘military aid’ package.

Also, the most important sign of any massive is the mobilization of Ukrainian Naval Forces. But Ukraine has lost its shabby Navy. Kiev completely lost its naval presence in the Azov and in the Black Seas: its Navy failed to exist.

As is known by May 21, 2023 Russian Armed Forces have destroyed in total from February 24, 2022, 428 Ukrainian airplanes and 234 helicopters; 4,245 unmanned aerial vehicles; 424 anti-aircraft missile systems; 9,251 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles; 1,100 combat vehicles equipped with MRLS; 4,871 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 10,365 units of special military hardware.


FOOD FOR THOUGHT:

Will NATO and the EU be able to replace all these ruined and smashed Ukrainian capabilities for any massive Ukrainian/NATO offensive/counteroffensive operation? The answer is obvious


Summing up all these factors, there are no signs that any kind of massive Ukrainian/NATO offensive/counteroffensive operation has started. To go by an article written by Jonathan Lemire and Alexander Ward and published at the end of April 2023 in Politico: “A top secret assessment from early [last] February stated that Ukraine would fall “well short” of its counteroffensive goals”.

Russia is capable of continuing its military operation in Ukraine ‘for a long time’, President of the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) Bruno Kahl said. He also noted that the intelligence service does not see that the conflict has somehow shaken the authority of the Russian state.

Currently it is May. By losing the battle over Artyomovsk/Bakhmut by May 20th Kiev has lost nearly 50,000 as KIA and 145,000 as WIA. Can they be substituted promptly by another 200,000 new GIs for any offensive or counteroffensive operation? Seemingly, not.

Another question: is it expedient for Kiev or Washington or London etc., to regain Russian historic lands that have never belonged to Ukraine, but belonged to Russia? No, I do not think so.

Nevertheless, when analyzing the array of facts and figures about Ukrainian ‘preplanned’ offensive or counteroffensive, one should be extremely careful and vigilant.

In its turn, Russia is on watch. On permanent one.

Being extremely careful and vigilant.

Russia has never lost its gene of victory in its history.

By Vladimir Kozin, Russian military expert

 

Report # 25. "Donbass” battalion is close to its end

March 22st, 2022

1. Humanitarian situation in general

On March 21st also from 10:00AM Russian troops have once again opened and secured humanitarian corridors in the Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov directions: one corridor eastward into Russian territory; and one more through Kiev-controlled territories towards Ukraine's western borders.

The Ukrainian side continues to prevent the evacuation of civilians and foreign citizens to the territory of the Russian Federation. At the same time, for the current day, official Kiev has additionally announced seven more humanitarian corridors - in the Kiev, Kharkov and Zaporozhye directions.

As a result of the effective measures taken over the past three days, 59,304 people, as well as 139 foreign citizens, were evacuated to the Russian Federation from the hotbed of horror and arbitrariness staged in the city by nationalists.

Despite the humanitarian corridors opening daily, Ukrainian neo-Nazis continue to hold more than four and a half million civilians as a "human shield" in Kiev, Kharkov, Chernigov, Sumy and more than two dozen other large settlements blocked, as well as 6,838 foreign citizens from 18 foreign countries.

A significant part of the population forcibly held by radicals in Ukrainian cities is still looking for any opportunities to evacuate to the territory of Russia, as evidenced by numerous appeals of citizens to official structures, public organizations, directly to the subjects of our country, to relatives and friends, as well as acquaintances living in the Russian Federation.

According to the results of daily monitoring, it was found that only over the past day another 5,117 such appeals were received, and in total there are already 2,716 436 personsin the Russian database with specific surnames and addresses from two thousand ninety-five settlements of Ukraine.

2. Situation over Mariupol is unresolved

In Mariupol, which has become a base of operation for the “Azov” battalion, nationalists are preventing the evacuation of local residents and using civilians as human shields while they launch counterattacks at advancing Russian Forces from hospitals, schools, and other civilian infrastructure. The rescued residents of Mariupol, finding themselves in complete safety in Russia, openly talk about all the mass outrages and crimes committed by neo-Nazis.

A severe humanitarian disaster has developed in the city of Mariupol as a result of the outrage created by Ukrainian nationalists. The desperate and mindless extremists, realizing the refusal for providing any assistance from Kiev, staged mass terror in those quarters of the city that they still control. At the same time, the reliable information received by the Russian side testifies to the terrible atrocities of the militants who were distraught from despair. The tone of their active negotiations with officials in Kiev, which is recorded daily in radio intercepts, speaks of their extreme anger towards the Ukrainian authorities because they were simply abandoned, while being forced to strictly follow the order: stand to death, and the status of martyrs of Mariupol has already been assigned to them.

According to available data, up to 130 thousand civilians and 184 foreign citizens from six countries are currently being held hostage in the city. Considering the above, in order to save human lives and preserve the infrastructure of Mariupol, guided exclusively by humane principles, as well as on the basis of an analysis of the content of radio conversations intercepted only today by desperate neo-Nazis who realized the complete hopelessness of the situation for them and the senselessness of further resistance, the Russian Federation will open humanitarian corridors from Mariupol to the east from 10:00AM (Moscow time) on March 21, 2022, and, in agreement with the Ukrainian side, in western directions.

It has been objectively established that over the past three days, 80 to 235 innocent civilians who are trying to leave the city on their own have been killed by the Nazis every day, the militants simply shoot them.

At the same time, the formations of the Donetsk People's Republic with the support of the Russian Armed Forces, realizing that the neo-Nazis are closed by a human shield of innocent people, are forced to carry out measures to unblock Mariupol only point-by-point, house by house, block by block, without using heavy weapons, thereby avoiding civilian casualties.

Russia called on UAF, territorial defence battalions and foreign mercenaries to cease hostilities, lay down their weapons and withdraw to Kiev-controlled territories using humanitarian corridors agreed with the Ukrainian side. In this case, we guarantee the safe exit from Mariupol and the preservation of life for all those who have laid down their arms. The commanders of the units of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Russian Armed Forces will be prepared for such a scenario and will ensure their safe exit, but only without weapons and ammunition, to any area they so desire. Russia called official Kiev for prudence and the cancellation of earlier instructions that obliged the fighters to sacrifice themselves and become "martyrs of Mariupol".

For the strict fulfillment of this task, in addition, Russia sent an official appeal to the United Nations, the OSCE, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other international organizations, whose representatives are invited to accompany the practical measures of this humanitarian operation, as it is called directly on the ground, that is, in Mariupol, while necessarily as part of humanitarian convoys of both Russian and Ukrainian sides.

The Russian Armed Forces strictly observe the ceasefire on all routes without exception, including those declared by Kiev. At the same time, the Ukrainian side continues systematic shelling of humanitarian convoys and attempts to shift responsibility for its own inhumane acts to the units of the Russian troops, as well as the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics.

The Russian side still keeps a sufficient number of vehicles ready at the checkpoints, including comfortable buses for transporting refugees to selected destinations, as well as to temporary accommodation points, where all citizens arriving on the territory of Russia are provided with three hot meals a day and medical assistance is provided around the clock.

Over the past day, without the participation of the Kiev authorities, 16,434 people were evacuated from dangerous areas of Ukraine, Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics to Russia, including 2,389 children, in total, 330 thousand 686 people, of which 68,983 children, have already been evacuated since the beginning of the special military operation.

A total of 1,815 private motor vehicles crossed the state border of Russia, and a total of 38,525.

3. Developments at the battlefields

Operational-tactical and army aviation hit 44 military assets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Among them: 4 command posts, 2 multiple launch rocket systems near Nalivaykovka and Zolocheva, 6 Buk M-1 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3 artillery mounts near Vyshgorod, 4 missile and artillery weapons depots, as well as 23 areas of military equipment concentration. Russian AAD shot down 2 more Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle in the air over Chernobayevka and Circuny.

A group of "night hunters" consisting of Ka-52 and Mi-28n helicopters destroyed 8 tanks, 4 infantry fighting vehicles and 3 armored personnel carriers during night strikes. Also, high-precision air-launched cruise missiles destroyed an ammunition depot and the headquarters of a mechanized brigade near Selets.

In total, from February 24th till March 21st 216 unmanned aerial vehicles, 180 anti-aircraft missile systems, 1,506 tanks and other ACVs, 152 MRLSs, 592 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,284 special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.

4. Sabotage at Sumy

In Sumy city, a planned provocation of Ukrainian nationalists was carried out at night. The Russian Defence Ministry officially warned about this provocation a few days ago. According to the head of Sumy regional Administration, there was an ammonia leak at “Sumykhimprom” plant. There is no threat to the residents of Sumy, since the wind moved off the city into the opposite direction.

On March 19th, Russian MoD officially warned about the mining of this enterprise by Ukrainian nationalists to commit a provocation in order to accuse Russia of allegedly using "chemical weapons". Canisters with ammonia and chlorine have been mined by nationalists. The leakage of ammonia took place at this plant on March 21st at 4:30 AM local time (5:30 Moscow time). At 7:50 the leakage has been eliminated.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have not planned and are not striking any Ukrainian facilities for the storage or production of toxic substances. The coordinates of all such objects and data on the toxic substances stored there on the territory of Ukraine were obtained by Russian troops during the seizure of the combat documentation of the 4th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard.

The Kiev nationalist regime is directly responsible for any possible incidents with Ukrainian storage facilities of toxic substances. Unfortunately, the Western nations pay no attention to such acts, hinting that president Zelensky can continue such provocations.

5. Russian Forces are close to defeating Ukrainian nationalist battalion called 'Donbass'

One of the main declared goals of the Russian special operation in Ukraine is to de-Nazify the country. Nationalist groups are the core of the volunteer battalions that have been used by Kiev in its attacks on the Donbass republics since 2014, with many of them being caught committing war crimes. The new nationalist-minded authorities largely turned a blind eye to these crimes, failing to prosecute even members of the notorious "Tornado" battalion, which was disbanded precisely because of the atrocities it was committing. The war crimes of another notorious battalion, "Aidar", were well documented by the Amnesty International non-profit back in 2014, but none of its members were probed and punished for their deeds.

Up to 60 of the “Donbass” battalion’s fighters were killed, two tanks, while three ACVs and six pieces of artillery and mortars were destroyed during Russian troops’ push towards Nikolskoye settlement. Currently, scattered groups of the nationalist battalion "Donbass" are being destroyed.

6. The number of mercenaries downsized

On the night of March 21, high-precision air-launched cruise missiles struck the Training Centre for Foreign Mercenaries and Ukrainian Nationalist Formations at Novaya Lyubomirka combined arms training ground in Rovenskaya Region. More than 80 mercenaries and nationalists were killed.

From March 13th, totally 360 foreign mercenaries have been killed in Ukraine backing Kiev’s aggression versus Donbass that is shelled every day and night by heavy artillery and mortars.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 252. Second Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow failed

May 31, 2023

1. Kremlin outlined why Ukraine attacked Moscow by UAVs

In the morning on May 30 Kiev unsuccessfully sent 13 UAVs to attack Moscow. It was the second attempt made by Armed Forces of Ukraine since May 3rd, that also failed.

Five have been destroyed in Moscow Region while approaching Moscow air space by air defense systems, five have been hit over Moscow also by and 3 have been suppressed by ECMs before they could reach their targets. The raid only resulted in several residential buildings sustaining slight damage. Two civilians received minor injuries, they have not been hospitalized. 

Following the raid, Vladimir Putin stated that Kiev’s attack on civilian targets in Moscow confirmed what method Kiev uses and called May 30th incident as Ukrainian terrorist activity. He later confirmed that Russian forces struck Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate HQ in Kiev several days ago.” Three huge arms storage sites packed by NATO weapons have been completely destroyed during Russian missile attacks as well.

"Using NATO weapons, the Kiev authorities continue to strike at social facilities, carry out terrorist attacks against peaceful Russian citizens. Our Armed Forces react as harshly as possible to the actions of Ukrainian militants," Sergey Shoigu, Russian Defence Minister said.

Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, argued that the Kiev attack once again confirmed the need to continue the Special Military Operation in Ukraine until its goals are achieved. The spokesman also said the authorities and military personnel in Moscow and Moscow Region had carried out their duties properly and that the air defense systems also “worked well.”

The Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense, Aleksey Zhuravlev, noting that Kiev had ultimately failed to achieve its goal of spreading panic in the capital, added that the attack has not affected life in the capital in any way. I personally confirm such conclusion.

 

2. Medvedev: the UK is ‘de facto’ at war with Russia

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev who currently serves as Deputy Chair of Russia’s Security Council has described the UK as waging an “undeclared war” against Russia. The comment came after Britain’s Foreign Secretary James Cleverly condoned a large-scale drone attack on Moscow on May 30.

On May 31 Medvedev accused London of being Moscow’s “eternal enemy.” He claimed that based on international law, “including the Hague and Geneva Conventions with their additional protocols,” Britain “can also be qualified as being at war.” The former Russian president argued that by providing Ukraine with weapons and training, the UK “de facto is leading an undeclared war against Russia.”

 

3. Russian Forces destroyed last Ukrainian warship

On May 29 Russian Armed Forces destroyed the last warship of the Ukrainian Navy  Yuri Olefirenko, at the port of Odessa. So, there is no Ukrainian Navy in the Azov and the Black Seas any more.

This was a landing craft built in the 1960s-1970s in Poland for the Soviet Navy. The ship was commissioned in 1971.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 255. Ecological bomb from Kiev

June, 7, 2023

1. Destruction of the Kakhovka HPP is a “barbaric act”

On June 7 Russian President Vladimir Putin told Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a telephone conversation that Ukraine escalated the situation, using terrorist methods and organizing acts of sabotage in Russia. Putin outlined that Kiev was dangerously escalating the situation at the instigation of the West, by using terrorist methods, and organizing acts of sabotage in Russia.


Putin called the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant or HPP

 a barbaric act that led to a massive ecological and humanitarian catastrophe.


2. Major results of the KHPP damage by Kiev

As it has been reported, on June 6, the Ukrainian military delivered a strike on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP), presumably from the U.S. HIMARS MLRS. The shelling destroyed the hydraulic valves at the dam, triggering an uncontrolled discharged of water. In Novaya Kakhovka, the city located downstream near the station, the water level exceeded 12 meters at one point. More than 80 percent of the city has been flooded by June 7. There are currently 15 settlements in the flooded area, and a total of about 80 villages may be inundated. The collapse of the plant's dam has caused serious environmental damage. Farmlands along the Dnieper River have been washed away, and there is a risk that the North Crimean Canal will become shallow.

Some 2,700 houses in 15 settlements of the Kherson Region were flooded after the collapse of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant’s (KHPP) dam, emergency services told TASS.

"According to the latest data, the water flooded about 2,700 houses in 15 settlements of the Kherson Region. A total of 22,000 people lived there. Almost 1,300 people have been evacuated," the source said. Vladimir Saldo, the Governor of the Kherson Region, controlled by Russia said on June 7 that the maximum number of local residents that could be affected by Kiev’s regional terrorist act even by 40,000 persons.

The authorities deployed 40 temporary shelters capable of settling up to 5,500 people. By evening on June 7, 345 civilians were staying in them.


The local authorities declared a state of emergency in the region. They complained that the AFU many times shelled the rescue workers that rendered 24 hours assistance to the people in need.


3. Why Kiev was interested in such barbaric act like flooding the huge territory not controlled by it:

a) Kiev has been shelling the Kakhovka HPP for more than a year especially aiming to destroy the hydraulic floodgates of the station several hundred times since February 2022. Kiev and his bosses have not been able to prove – where from Russia has shelled this dam and when, if Russia controls the station since the beginning of the SMO?

b) Kiev increased the volume of water at the Dnieper HPP Reservoir located upstream to maximum level and then opened all its floodgates to increase the volume of water going via Kakhovka HPP to produce negative effects of flooding.

c) by destruction of the Kakhovka HPP Kiev decreased the level of water in the North Crimean Canal supplying water to Crimea. Water from the Kakhovka reservoir irrigates arid regions of the Kherson Region and the Crimean Peninsula via that canal. Back in 2014, after the Crimea voted overwhelmingly to reunite with Russia in a referendum, Ukraine shut down the canal, and only Moscow was finally able to solve the water supply problems for the Russian region in March 2022 as part of its ongoing Special Military Operation in Ukraine.

d). Kiev flooded the huge area in Kherson Region because it understands that this area will never agree to join Ukraine again.

e) such barbaric act has been done by Kiev in order to prevent liberation of the rest of Kherson Region still controlled by AFU.

f) Kiev destroyed Kakhovka HPP and its dam with the aim to give less water supply to Zaporozhye NPP cooling system, or to cease the operation of the nuclear power plant in general.

All hydro facilities located upstream [along the Dnepr Rever] are controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. A conscious discharge of water there could only be with the sanction from the Ukrainian military and its NATO leaders. Water was dumped deliberately from hydro facilities that the Russian side does not control.

A number of respected US commentators including journalist Tucker Carlson and former U.S. INF Treaty inspector Scott Ritter pointed out that Russia lacked any motivation to attack the dam - which helped ensure water security in Crimea, and provided crucial water supplies used to cool the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant. Kiev forces have targeted the Kakhovka HPP and its dam since the spring of 2022, and Moscow spent well over a year warning of the catastrophe that would result if the dam were damaged or destroyed.


It is evident who profited from such a barbaric attack on

Kakhovka HHP and its dam. It is a regime who masterminded it.

It is Kiev. And nobody else.


Russia regretted that the international community did not hear its warnings last October about the potential threat that the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP and dam would pose, Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vassily Nebenzia said on June 6. “We have warned the international community and UN leadership about this threat,” Nebenzia said during a UN Security Council meeting, in reference to an October 2022 letter that stated Ukrainian forces were planning on destroying the dam through sea mines or a missile strike. "At the end of October 2022, we circulated an official document of the UN Security Council, a note from the permanent mission on the Kiev regime’s plans to destroy the Kakhovka HPP [hydroelectric power plant]. We regret that our calls to the secretary-general to do everything possible to prevent this horrifying crime were not duly heeded." The letter addressed to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres detailed Russian military had registered enemy airstrikes targeting Kakhovka HPP foodgates, with the intention of flooding the area.

Russian envoy emphasized that statements blaming Russia for the incident use the same flawed logic as claims that Moscow played a role in the Nord Stream destruction. "Such conclusions reek of schizophrenia," he said, underscoring the danger posed by such a narrative.

Nebenzia took the opportunity to further point out that Kiev had considered undertaking such an operation as far back as last year, a plan reported on by the US media in December 2022. He meant Major General  Andriy Kovalchuk, who was tasked with leading the Kherson counteroffensive, partially considered flooding the adjacent area controlled by Russian troops. The Ukrainians, Kovalchuk admitted, even conducted a test strike with M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems or HIMARS launchers. Several HIMARS rockets hit one of the floodgates at the Kakhovka HPP dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings. The test was a success, Kovalchuk added {a link is: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-kherson-donetsk].

Nebenzia also condemned the behavior of the UN Secretariat for its 'politicized' statements and for not condemning Kiev over the attack. “We are deeply bewildered that the UN Secretariat repeatedly fails to condemn the attacks perpetrated by the Kiev regime citing insufficient information,” he told the Security Council.

4.  Kiev regime delivers over 500 strikes on Russia’s Belgorod Region

Ukraine’s Armed Forces have shelled Russia’s borderline Belgorod Region more than 500 times over the past 24 hours with around 460 shells fired at the Shebekino municipal district, regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said on June 7.

"Some 460 various projectiles have been launched at the Shebekino municipal district and 26 drops of explosive devices by drones have been recorded. In the city of Shebekino, strikes were mostly delivered on residential areas," he clarified.

The governor added that 33 artillery shells were fired at the Zhuravlyovka settlement in the Belgorodsky district and it was attacked by kamikaze drones twice. In the Borisovsky district, the Tsapovka settlement came under a mortar attack, in the Volokonovsky district, four mortar shells were launched at the Stary farmstead, in the Grayvoronsky district, the Kozinka settlement was bombarded and air defense systems intercepted two air targets over Belgorod.

Gladkov said that the shelling of the Kozinka settlement damaged a gas pipe, cutting off gas service to 74 customers. The bombardments in the Shebekino district damaged an agricultural facility, as well as some residences and vehicles.

5. Ukraine blown up Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline

A Ukrainian sabotage group has blown up the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline in Kharkov Region. There are casualties among the civilian population, the Russian Defense Ministry said on June 7."On June 5, at about 21:00 Moscow time [18:00 GMT], a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group blew up the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline near the settlement Masyutovka in Kharkov Region," the ministry announced.

The explosion of the pipeline was designated as a terrorist attack, there are victims among the civilian population, they have "received the necessary medical assistance," according to the MoD. "Currently, ammonia residues are being drained from the Ukrainian territory through the damaged sections of the pipeline. There are no casualties among Russian soldiers," the ministry said.

Footage appeared online appearing to document the consequences of the sabotage attack, showing toxic clouds of ammonia vapor pouring into the local environment.

Ammonia is not recognized as a traditional chemical weapons agent, but exposure to very high levels of the chemical can damage the lungs and cause death. Ammonia is also highly toxic to fish, wildlife, and plant life.

Note: The Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline runs from the Russian region of Samara, entering Ukraine at Kharkov and pushing south and west toward the Black Sea coastal city of Odessa, where the resource is exported. Ammonia is a key raw material used in the enrichment of natural fertilizers. The pipeline was built in 1979 during the Soviet period, and, until recently, was able to transport up to 2.5 million tons of ammonia per year. The pipeline's use was stopped last February after a full-blown Ukrainian-NATO aggression unleashed against Donbass and later against Russia.

Russia has sought to reactivate the pipeline as part of the Grain Deal negotiated with the help of Turkey and the United Nations in July 2022. Last month, Moscow warned that if its demands to reconnect the Russian Agricultural Bank to SWIFT and relaunch the pipeline were not addressed, the Grain Deal would be terminated after July 17 this year.

It will take up to three months to repair the pipeline. Naturally, at the expense of Zelensky.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 256. New U.S. proposals on nuclear arms control: major setbacks

 June, 8, 2023

 

By Vladimir Kozin, Member, Russian Academy of Military Sciences

On June 2, U.S. Presidential National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan spoke on nuclear missiles’ issues at an international conference held at the Arms Control Association, Washington, DC.

The speaker reiterated the country’s nuclear strategy that was approved in October 2022 by the current U.S. Administration. He stated that the USA will keep intact the central limits on nuclear weapons and their delivery systems until 2026, the year when the New START will expire, but with a significant excuse: if the PRC does not build up the size and scope of its nuclear arsenal. Jake Sullivan promised that the Pentagon would not deploy “ever more dangerous” nuclear weapons, without specifying what he had in mind.

Peculiarities of criticism aimed at Russia and China

A large portion of his remarks was devoted to harsh criticism of Russia’s nuclear policy. He distortedly noted that Russia:

  •  suspended the implementation of the New START (he concealed Moscow’s arguments for that move and hidden that Washington was the first who violated it by hiding 101 strategic delivery systems from inspections);
  •  stationed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus (he also abstained to outline the reasons for such action and did not mention that Pentagon is keeping the same type of weapons for nearly 80 years);
  •  “seized and attacked” the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant (Russia never shelled it with the U.S HIMARS, but Ukraine did it more than 40 times aiming at destruction of the cooling system and electricity supply grid, and sent five commando group to capture it);
  •   announced its withdrawal from the CFE Treaty (the USA has not ratified it while Russia has done);
  •  generally, “destabilized the nuclear foundation” laid by the U.S. forebearers even before its “brutal attack” on Ukraine (actually, the USA has destabilized it and brutal combined aggression against Russia was started by Ukraine and NATO in April 2014);
  •  advanced the development of dangerous nuclear-powered missiles and torpedoes (the USA does the same), and “destroyed” earlier nuclear arms control agreements (the USA displayed negative attitude towards 15 bilateral and multilateral arms control agreements). 

The rapporteur expressed concern about the People’s Republic of China nuclear missile build-up that – as he predicted – could reach 1,500 nuclear warheads’ ceiling by 2035. Beijing was also accused of avoiding negotiations on nuclear arms control, failing to share data on the size and scope of its nuclear weapons, and to provide ballistic missiles’ launch notifications. True, but the PRC is not a party of the relevant international arrangements.

The presidential adviser noted that for the first time in the nation’s history, the United States is facing two named nuclear powers at the same time. Who has created such situation? Namely, the USA.

Jake Sullivan also recalled the “increasing nuclear threats” from the DPRK and Iran. Pyongyang has been accused of being ready to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states, while Tehran has been accused of withdrawing from the joint comprehensive nuclear deal. Strange revelation: the USA was the first who torpedoed it.

New proposals


Against the backdrop of this distorted introduction, Jake Sullivan advocated updating the national nuclear deterrence strategy and plans to modernize the strategic nuclear triad, updating the U.S. nuclear command, control, and communications architecture.


 

He proposed to make an emphasis on non-nuclear means: hypersonic and space strike systems, as well as the use of cyberspace for military purposes. Presidential adviser advocated negotiating nuclear issues with the major nuclear powers “from a position of strength.” Will such a way be helpful?

On the other hand, giving lip service to the readiness of the U.S. military and political leadership to prevent the outbreak of a nuclear war, the speaker outlined some new, but very limited in format approaches to selectively addressing a number of nuclear arms control issues.

He recounted Washington’s willingness:

1) to engage in bilateral arms control discussions with Russia and the PRC “without preconditions,” but stipulated that this did not mean conducting it “without accountability;”

2) to notify Russia in advance of the U.S. ballistic missile launches and major strategic exercises;

3) to enter into a “discussion” with Russia on managing nuclear risks and developing a post-2026 arms control framework;

4) to engage in new multilateral arms control efforts, including through the five permanent members of the UN Security Council;

5) to formalize a missile launch notification regime across the five permanent members of the UN Security Council; 

6) to establish crisis communications channels between the capitals of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council; 

7) to commit to transparency on nuclear policy, doctrine, and budgeting;

8) to set up guardrails for managing the interplay between non-nuclear strategic capabilities and nuclear deterrence;

9) to continue to be laser focused with the U.S. NATO Allies on modernizing the Alliance’s nuclear capabilities – from ensuring broad participation in the Alliance’s nuclear deterrent mission, to certifying F-35 aircraft to be able to deliver modern nuclear gravity bombs, including B 61-12.

The organizers carefully shielded Jake Sullivan from numerous questions: he was asked only four of them: two by the media and two put by the expert community.

Shortcomings of proposals

Jake Sullivan did not specify which of the most dangerous nuclear weapons the Pentagon would refuse to deploy.

Paragraph 1 mentioned here is unclear: what kind of “accountability” and what would it consist of, if it says there are no “preconditions” for an arms control dialogue with Russia and the PRC?

Paragraph 2 is clear, except one factor: what does it mean major strategic exercises?

Paragraph 3 proposes entering into a “discussion” on eliminating nuclear risks and defining a framework for arms control after 2026; as we know, any discussions are different from negotiations and do not produce solutions.

Paragraph 4 proposes a “new effort” in multilateral arms control involving the five nuclear-weapon states. What does this effort amount to?


Paragraph 5 proposes the establishment of a regime of notification of missile launches among the five nuclear-weapon states. Has such a proposal been agreed to by the UK and France? It has not been said.


It is not clear: between which Government agencies of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council is it proposed to establish “crisis communication channels” (paragraph 6)?

What should be the obligations for transparency in nuclear policy, strategies, and budgeting of the parties – open or classified to the general public and to what extent (paragraph 7)?

What are “the guardrails” (or limitations) for managing the interaction between non-nuclear strategic capabilities and nuclear deterrence mentioned in paragraph 8.

Paragraph 9 has additional questions as well: where and how many already certified nuclear-capable F-35 will be deployed by the USA and its allies in Europe and Indo-Pacific?

These proposals completely missed the U.S. position on the “launch-on-warning” strategy of its first nuclear strike against Russia and the PRC; continued patrols in Europe and Asia by American heavy nuclear strategic bombers; permanent deployment of the U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in Europe and Asia; revival of national nuclear-tipped medium-range missiles; continued NATO Air Forces’ Baltic Air Policing and South European Air Policing operations employing the DCA or dual-capable aircraft capable to carry nuclear weapons.

Conclusions

All proposals tabled by Jake Sullivan are put forward for the sake of their empty placement; they require additional clarifications from the U.S. side.

These “new proposals” are selective in nature. They do not include U.S. approaches to other arms control issues bearing strategic significance.

His proposals require more straight-forward questions and crystal-clear answers to be given from Washington.


It is impossible to ‘marry’ the two sides of the same ‘nuclear coin’ as Jake Sullivan proposed: to responsibly enhance nuclear deterrent capabilities and to negotiate arms control, and especially from a position of strength.


There are two obvious black goals emerging from his notions painted in white:

first, to draw the PRC into a dubious dialogue with the USA on nuclear arms control by any means;

and, second, to undermine the national security of the Russian Federation and the PRC by all these carefully camouflaged “proposals”.

 

Report # 258. SUMMARY LOSSES OF THE AFU ‘OFFENSIVE’

 

June 14, 2023

 

On June 13 President Vladimir Putin met with Russian war correspondents at the Kremlin.

He outlined that major goals specified for the SMO are fundamental for Russia, and they are not changed.

Commenting on demilitarization, the President said: “We are dealing with this gradually, methodically. What are the Armed Forces of Ukraine fighting with? Do they produce Leopards or Bradleys or the F-16s they haven’t received yet? They don’t produce a thing. The Ukrainian defence industry will soon cease to exist altogether. What do they produce? Ammunition is delivered, equipment is delivered and weapons are delivered – everything is delivered. You won't live long like that, you won't last. So, the issue of demilitarisation is raised in very practical terms.”

In response to a question on Ukrainian ‘counteroffensive’ Putin explained:” This is a large-scale counteroffensive, which uses, as I recently said publicly, reserves that had been stockpiled to this end. It started on June 4. … The enemy was not successful in any sector. They suffered big losses. …of all personnel losses – and they are approaching a number that can be called catastrophic – the structure of these losses is unfavorable for them. Because as we know, losses can be sanitary or irretrievable. Usually, I am afraid I may be off a little, but [ Ukrainian] irretrievable losses are around 25 percent, maximum 30 percent while their losses are almost 50/50. This is my first point. Second, if we look at irretrievable losses, clearly, the defending side suffers fewer losses, but this ratio of 1 to 10 is in our favour. Our losses are one-tenth of the losses of the Ukrainian forces.

The situation is even more serious with armour.


During this period, they lost over 160 tanks and more than 360 armoured vehicles of different types.


 

This is only what we are seeing. There are also losses that we don’t see. They are inflicted by long-range precision weapons at masses of personnel and equipment. So, in reality Ukraine has sustained heavier losses. By my calculations, these losses are about 25 or maybe 30 percent of the equipment supplied from abroad. It seems to me they would agree with this if they count objectively.

… As for our losses – let the Defence Ministry talk about other indicators and personnel – I said they lost over 160 tanks and we lost 54 tanks, some of which can be restored and repaired.

[On June 14 Russian MoD additionally announced that AFU have lost 7,500 servicemen killed or wounded during their ‘counteroffensive, with the tally only including service members on the front line, and not those struck by Russian high-precision missiles and airstrikes deeper into Ukrainian territory. Russian soldiers seized a German-made Leopard 2 main battle tank with working, unswitched engine and ammunition and US-produced Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.]’

Touching upon the destruction the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant the President said it is clear who is to blame – Ukraine was working at this. AFU had targeted the Kakhovka HPP with HIMARS many times.

Reacting to a question about the activity of Polish mercenaries attacking Russian territory, Vladimir Putin admitted that Polish mercenaries are indeed fighting and they are suffering heavy losses. In fact, they are trying to hide them, but their losses are serious. It is a pity that they hide this from their population too. Mercenaries are being recruited – right in Poland, and in other countries, by the way.


He promised to address the issue of creating a buffer zone on the territory of Ukraine at such a distance from which it would be impossible to shell Russian territory.


Putin rejected any possibility to announce additional mobilization, by explaining that there is no need to do that because during previous mobilization Russia has already recruited 300,000 men, plus since last January recruited over 156,000 as contract soldiers and volunteers.

[These are several points from Putin’s remarks. The full transcript is available in at: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71391]. The meeting lasted for 3,5 hours, including the closed-door seccion.

 

 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 26. Over 74% of russian citizens support military operation

March 23rd, 2022

1. Number of supporters of the operation has increased

The majority of Russians support President Vladimir Putin and the military operation in Ukraine. Recent public opinion polls showed that the overwhelming majority of citizens, as evidenced by statistics and polls – over 74% of citizens – support the special operation. 17% were against it and 9% did not have any clear answer.

On February 25th the number of those who supported it was 65%. (https://tass.ru/obschestvo/14157841)

At the same time Moscow negatively reacted towards Zelensky’s idea to arrange referendum to determine the fate of Donbass and Crimea (???).

2. Humanitarian situation

 Humanitarian situation is still very complicated.

On March 22nd from 10:00AM the Russian Federation has already provided humanitarian corridors for the eighteenth time in Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov directions, along one humanitarian corridor leading to the Russian Federation, and one more through the territories controlled by the Kiev authorities towards the western borders of Ukraine.

Official Kiev has not agreed on any corridor towards Russia again.

At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities additionally announced 4 more routes in Zaporozhye direction, cynically ignoring humanitarian corridors to the Russian Federation.

Current humanitarian situation in Mariupol has reached catastrophic proportions mainly because of servicemen of Ukrainian nationalistic battalions who don`t want to lay down their arms and prevent safe exit of tens of thousands civilians from the city.

Russian troops continue ensuring safety of refugees leaving Mariupol. Every day civilians are kept as hostages by nationalists who has entrenched in residential areas and use civilians as a human shield during the warfare continue.

The Russian Federation continues its coordinated work on the evacuation of civilians and foreign citizens from combat zones, as well as the provision of humanitarian assistance to the population in the territories of Ukraine liberated from neo-Nazis.

As a result of the effective measures taken, without the participation of the Kiev authorities, 68,098 people have already been evacuated from Mariupol, where the humanitarian situation has taken catastrophic proportions. Saved from the horrors and lawlessness staged by the nationalists, people are now completely safe under the protection of the Russian Federation, all those in need are provided with the necessary assistance. According to DPR Head Denis Pushilin, some 150,000 civilians are believed to live in areas controlled by nationalists in Mariupol, the second largest city in the Donetsk region.

Despite the endless streams of lies and disinformation, Russia continues to fully fulfill its humanitarian obligations.

Pursuing exclusively humane principles, in order to ensure the safe evacuation of civilians forcibly held by nationalists in blocked settlements, on all, including new routes, the Russian Armed Forces fully comply with the imposed ceasefire.

Despite the humanitarian corridors opening daily, Ukrainian nationalists continue to hold more than 4,500,000 civilians as a "human shield" in Kiev, Kharkov, Chernigov, Sumy and more than 20 other blocked large settlements, as well as 6,862 foreign citizens from 25 foreign states.

On March 21st, 19,442 people, including 3,448 children, were evacuated from the dangerous zones of various regions of Ukraine, as well as the Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics still shelled by besieged UAF day in, day out.

During the day without the participation of the Ukrainian side, 336,182 people have been evacuated since the beginning of the special military operation, 77,062 of them children.

The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 43,287 personal vehicles including 2,895 per day.

All checkpoints contain the necessary number of comfortable buses, equipped with places for temporary accommodation of refugees, their rest and hot meals, mobile medical centres have been deployed, a supply of medicines has been created. Individual work is organized with each person arriving in Russia, medical and psychological assistance is provided.

More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centers continue to operate in the regions of the Russian Federation.

The federal executive authorities, together with the regions, as well as various public organizations and patriotic movements, continue to accumulate humanitarian aid. More than 21,500 tons of basic necessities, food and medicines have been prepared at the collection points.

Humanitarian aid is delivered daily by the Russian side to the liberated areas. In total, 4,345 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 539 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 26 actions in Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Kherson and Nikolaev regions regions, as well as in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, during which 180 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

On March 22nd, 2022, 35 humanitarian actions are being held in the republics of Donbass, as well as in the liberated settlements of Ukraine, within the framework of which 299 tons of basic necessities and food packages, including baby food and vital medicines, are being transferred to the population.

3. Russian troops are moving according to the master plan

The Russian Armed Forces continue to destroy units of the 54th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Currently, they intend to capture  Novomikhailovka.

The troops of the Donetsk People's Republic, having completed the clearing of Verkhnetoretskoe from the nationalists, continued to chase the retreating units of the 25th Airborne Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) of and took control of Novobakhmutovka railway station. During the night, 3 tanks, 2 infantry fighting vehicles and 6 all-terrain vehicles were destroyed in this area.

On the evening of March 22nd, high-precision long-range sea-based weapons struck an arms depot in Orzhev, 14 km northwest of Rovno city. As a result of the strike, a large depot containing weapons and military equipment of the UAF, including those received from Western countries, was destroyed.

The Russian Defense Ministry has released a video it claims shows Ukrainian a battery of Ukrainian multiple rocket launcher system for which civilian buildings had been used as cover before it was hidden inside a Kiev shopping mall. The site was destroyed overnight in a missile strike.

The Donetsk People's Republic press service said that its troops have de-Nazified Ukrainian 36th Naval Infantry Brigade near Mariupol.

During last 24 hours operational-tactical, army aviation and missile troops hit 97 military assets of the UAF.

Among them: 2 launchers and 1 transport-loading vehicle of the Tochka-U tactical missile system in an industrial zone on the northern outskirts of Kiev, 8 anti-aircraft missile systems, including: 6 Buk-M1, 1 S-300 and 1 Osa combat vehicle, 10 command posts, 8 field artillery guns, as well as 3 artillery reconnaissance stations manufactured by NATO.

The Russian air defence means shot down 1 Su-24 near Izyum city, 16 Ukrainian drones in the air, including 3 Bayraktar TB-2 near Rozhin, Karashev and Maxim Gorky.

A group of "night hunters" choppers consisting of Ka-52 and Mi-28n helicopters destroyed 8 tanks, 5 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, 9 vehicles and towing trucks, 3 permanent fire positions and 7 field artillery and mortars during night strikes.

In addition, in the seaports of Ukraine, due to the high mine danger created by the Kiev authorities in their internal waters and territorial sea, the crews of 67 vessels from 15 foreign countries remain blocked.

In total, from February 24th, 2022: 184 aircraft and helicopters of the Ukrainian Air Force; 246 unmanned aerial vehicles; 189 anti-aircraft missile systems; 1,558 tanks and other ACVs, 156 MRLSs, 624 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,354  special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.

4. Food for thought

What does it mean – neo-Nazism in contemporary Ukraine?

Not only marches with swastika and portraits of Hitler’s supporters.

Not only the glorification of fascism.

Not only adoption of national laws prohibiting Russian language almost everywhere.

 

Current neo-Nazism in Ukraine means:

Creation of ultra-nationalist battalions that torture POW and kill Ukrainian citizens who would like to find save heaven and asylum in Russia and in other states.

Continuous shelling of Donbass residential areas without military significance from 2014 till today with heavy artillery fire, ballistic missiles Tochka-U with 15,000 pieces of shrapnel each and MRLS one salvo of which can destroy everything on 20 hectrares.

Barbaric destruction of all that is left when Ukrainian troops retreat: living quarters, schools, hospitals, etc.

Permanent destruction of the civilian live support systems in Donbass and in liberated areas.

Uninterrupted destruction of coal mines’ electric equipment with the aim to trap dozens of coal miners underground.

Refusal to offer humanitarian assistance to Ukrainian citizens who are in trouble, and using them as human shields.

And the collective West is still helping Ukrainian neo-Nazis by lethal weapons, ammunition, mercenaries and blood money? To create an all-out war in Europe?

 

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Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 260. A warning from Russian Defence Minister

 

June 20, 2023

1. All 263 AFU attacks during ‘offensive’ were repelled

On June 20 Russian Defence Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu made opening remarks at the Russian MoD Board session where he said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) continued on offensive operation in the South Donetsk, Zaporozhye, and Donetsk direction. The Kiev regime deploys large amounts of western weaponry and elite units, trained by NATO instructors.

Since 4 June 2023, when AFU started their offensive till now, they have launched 263 attacks at Russian Forces positions. Due to competent and dedicated actions of Russian units, all attacks have been repelled, the enemy failed to achieve its goals, Sergei Shoigu outlined.

Major battles are conducted in the 5-15 km ‘gray zone’ located before the first line of Russian defences. AFU were not able to cross even the first line that have some more heavily protected areas and strongholds.

The Minister also added that judging by obtained information, the AFU plans to launch strikes at Russian Federation territory, including Crimea, with HIMARS and Storm Shadow missiles, supplied by the USA and the UK.


Sergei Shoigu stated: “Deployment of these particular missiles out off the Special Military Operation (SMO) zone will be regarded as direct involvement of USA and UK in the conflict and will result in immediate retaliatory strikes at decision-making centres in Ukraine territory.


 

In all, the Russian Armed Forces have destroyed 444 Ukrainian warplanes, 240 helicopters, 4,700 UAVs, 426 surface-to-air missile systems, 10,192 tanks and other armored combat vehicles; 1,125 multiple rocket launchers; 5,163 field artillery guns and mortars and 11,047 special military motor vehicles since the start of the SMO in Ukraine,

2. David Sacks is too skeptical

On June 19, an investor and entrepreneur David Sacks arguing that Ukraine’s military push against Russia is faltering posted an article on Twitter, claiming “it’s becoming clear that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is failing to achieve any of its originally stated objectives.” Washington’s bet that Kiev would be able to “roll back Russian territorial gains, cut the land bridge to Crimea” and make it engage in negotiations had not paid off, he added.


“On the contrary, a stalemate is more likely, or even that Russia will take more territory and win the war,” the investor predicted.


 

He went on to compare the situation in Ukraine with the U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan, which ended with a chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops in 2020. “Unfortunately, it looks like we’re headed for a similar kind of outcome in Ukraine. The only question is when, and how long Biden will be able to perpetuate a proxy war of choice that could have easily been avoided,” David Sacks claimed.

3. African leaders unveiled peace roadmap

Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted a delegation of African leaders in St. Petersburg on June 17. The group traveled to Russia a day after visiting Ukraine and meeting President Vladimir Zelensky, promoting their 10-point peace roadmap designed to end the aggression unleashed by Kiev against Russia.

The African delegation comprised South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Senegalese President Macky Sall, Comoros President Othman Ghazali, Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, and senior officials from the Republic of Congo and Uganda.


The delegation presented President Putin with a 10-point peace roadmap, which broadly outlines the steps needed to end the hostilities. The document affirms that the African leaders welcome other peace initiatives from third parties, and state that the conflict "cannot go on forever," and that all differences have be settled through talks.


The roadmap says African nations respect the sovereignty of both Russia and Ukraine as enshrined in the UN Charter, and urges the two countries to "de-escalate." In addition, the document calls for all restrictions on trade in grain and other goods to be lifted, while those affected by the conflict should be given humanitarian support. The roadmap urges the two parties to release all POW, and to return temporarily displaced persons, including children, to their homes.

During the meeting, the Russian president reiterated that Moscow has never refused to negotiate, pointing out that dialogue was jeopardized by Kiev and its backers. Putin also produced a copy of a preliminary agreement with Ukraine entitled an “Agreement on permanent neutrality and security guarantees for Ukraine”, initialed during talks in Istanbul last year. It contained 18 Articles.

Ukraine broke the preliminary deal immediately after Russia withdrew its troops from Kiev Region, as had been agreed upon in Istanbul, Putin explained. "Kiev authorities, like their masters usually do, threw it all away into the graveyard of history," he added, stating that no one could guarantee that Ukraine would do the same to any new deals in the future.

Last year President Zelensky issued his own decree banning any political talks with Moscow on political settlement. The decree is still valid.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 262. Putin’s address to Russian citizens

June 24, 2023

“I am addressing citizens of Russia, the personnel of the Armed Forces, law enforcement agencies and security services, and the soldiers and commanders who are now fighting in their combat positions, repulsing enemy attacks and doing it heroically – I know this as I spoke once again with the commanders of all sections of the frontline last night. I am also addressing those who were dragged into this criminal adventure through deceit or threats and pushed onto the path of a grave crime – an armed mutiny.

Today, Russia is waging a tough struggle for its future, repelling the aggression of neo-Nazis and their patrons. The entire military, economic and informational machine of the West is directed against us. We are fighting for the lives and security of our people, for our sovereignty and independence, for the right to be and remain Russia, a state with a thousand-year history.

This battle, when the fate of our nation is being decided, requires consolidation of all forces. It requires unity, consolidation and a sense of responsibility, and everything that weakens us, any strife that our external enemies can use and do so to subvert us from within, must be discarded.

Therefore, any actions that split our nation are essentially a betrayal of our people, of our comrades-in-arms who are now fighting at the frontline. This is a knife in the back of our country and our people.

A blow like this was dealt to Russia in 1917, when the country was fighting in World War I. But the victory was stolen from it: intrigues, squabbles and politicking behind the backs of the army and the nation turned into the greatest turmoil, the destruction of the army and the collapse of the state, and the loss of vast territories, ultimately leading to the tragedy of the civil war.

Russians were killing Russians and brothers were killing brothers, while all sorts of political adventurers and foreign forces profited from the situation by tearing the country apart to divide it.

We will not allow this to happen again. We will protect our people and our statehood from any threats, including from internal betrayal.

What we are facing is essentially a betrayal. Inflated ambitions and personal interests have led to treason – treason against our country, our people and the common cause which Wagner Group soldiers and commanders were fighting and dying for shoulder to shoulder, together with our other units and troops. The heroes who liberated Soledar and Artyomovsk, towns and villages in Donbass, fought and gave their lives for Novorossiya and the unity of the Russian world. Their memory and glory have also been betrayed by those who are attempting to stage a revolt and are pushing the country towards anarchy and fratricide – and ultimately, towards defeat and surrender.

Once again, any internal revolt is a deadly threat to our statehood and our nation. It is a blow to Russia, to our people. Our actions to defend the Fatherland from this threat will be harsh. All those who have consciously chosen the path of betrayal, planned an armed mutiny and taken the path of blackmail and terrorism, will inevitably be punished and will answer before the law and our people.

The Armed Forces and other government agencies have received the necessary orders. Additional counterterrorism measures are now in effect in Moscow, the Moscow Region and several other regions. Resolute action will also be taken to stabilise the situation in Rostov-on-Don. It remains difficult; in effect, the work of civil and military authorities has been blocked.

As the President of Russia and Supreme Commander-in-Chief, and as a citizen of Russia, I will take every effort to defend the country and protect the constitutional order as well as the lives, security and freedom of our citizens.

Those who staged the mutiny and took up arms against their comrades – they have betrayed Russia and will be brought to account. I urge those who are being dragged into this crime not to make a fatal and tragic mistake but make the only right choice: to stop taking part in criminal actions.

I am certain that we will preserve and defend what we hold dear and sacred, and together with our Motherland we will overcome any hardships and become even stronger.”

 

 

Report # 264. Russia has not backed Prigozhin

June 28, 2023

1. Putin’s addressed to the nation several times

Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered a choice to the soldiers of the Wagner PMC involved in Saturday's failed armed rebellion. They can either sign a contract with Russia’s Defense Ministry or other security agencies, return home or move to neighboring Belarus, the Russian leader said in a televised addressed broadcasted in the evening on June 26.

"The overwhelming majority of the fighters and commanders of the Wagner group are also Russian patriots, devoted to their people and country. They proved this with their courage on the battlefield,” Putin noted.

The organizers of the insurrection “kept them in the dark and tried using them against their brothers in arms, with whom they fought shoulder to shoulder for the sake of the country and its future,” he said.

The Russian leader thanked the Wagner soldiers and commanders, who “stopped at the last line” and didn’t allow the “fratricidal bloodshed” to take place. He added that the promise he gave during negotiations to settle the crisis will be kept.

On June 27 Vladimir Putin also addressed to units of the Defense Ministry, Russian Guard, Interior Ministry, Federal Security Service and Federal Protection Service.

Russian military and its law enforcement agencies prevented a major internal armed conflict in the country last week, President Vladimir Putin has said, referring to the aborted rebellion by Wagner PMC. “In fact, you have stopped a civil war, acting precisely and cohesively,” he told a group of service members, who gathered at the Kremlin to receive state decorations for their endeavors. The response of the people, on whom Russia’s security depends, enabled all critical defenses and government systems to continue operating, the president said. President noted that no units had been pulled back from the frontline of the military operation in Ukraine.

 

2. Minsk will determine the algorithm on NW use from Belarus

Addressing the Belarusian military on June 27 Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko said that he gave instructions to the MoD, General Staff and the KGB determine national algorithm for Russian TNW use from Belarus. He also noted that Wagner PMC would not guard the TNW storage sites in Belarus.

Dealing with that group armed mutiny he observed that Russia would have prevailed in a standoff against the mutineers, but it might have resulted in “thousands” of deaths, so a peaceful solution was the priority. “The most dangerous thing… was not the situation itself but its potential consequences,” he stressed.

Aleksandr Lukashenko said Vladimir Putin told him the Wagner PMC founder, Evgeny Prigozhin, was refusing to talk to anyone and that attempting to negotiate with him would be “useless”. Nonetheless, Lukashenko apparently managed to establish contact, with the help of the Russian Federal Security Service.

Prigozhin was in a state of “total euphoria” for the first 30 minutes, and they were speaking mostly in obscenities, the Belarusian leader admitted. “There were 10 times more swear words than normal ones,” he recalled.

During their talks, Lukashenko said he warned Prigozhin that he would be “crushed like a bug” should he dare to continue his march on Moscow.

At 5pm Moscow time during the mutiny, Prigozhin called to say he would accept Lukashenko’s terms, but demanded security guarantees for himself and his fighters. At that point, Lukashenko contacted FSB chief Aleksandr Bortnikov and agreed with him that Russia would not strike Wagner troops. Lukashenko “promised” Prigozhin this would not happen and offered a “guarantee” that he would accept Wagner fighters in Belarus and ensure their safety.

 

3. Lavrov: The USA supports regime change in Russia

The US enthusiastically supports regime change whenever it can benefit from the process, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has told RT. If a protest movement targets a government more pliant to American interests, Washington will inevitably reject it, the diplomat added.

There have been numerous attempts at regime change around the world in recent years and they were “met with a different response on the part of the US, depending on who was in power and who was trying to carry out the coup,” Lavrov said in an interview on June 26.

“Where the West is happy with the current government, in such situations no protest can be legitimate. But where the government doesn’t reflect the interests of the hegemon and is pursuing the national interests, in those cases we see various unlawful forces are being stimulated [to attack the authorities],” the diplomat added.

An example of such a differentiated approach by the US and its allies was the regime change in Ukraine in 2014 and the conflict in Yemen the next year, Lavrov pointed out. The so-called Maidan coup in Kiev was a “revolt that happened against the legitimate president” and which was marred by “bloody provocations against the unarmed police,” he said. 

Ukraine’s democratically elected leader Viktor Yanukovich had been forced to flee violence despite his government and the opposition reaching an EU-sponsored agreement on settling the crisis just hours before that, the diplomat recalled.    “There were no protests against that insurgency from the US or its European allies. So, they just recognized it as a zig-zag in the democratic process,” he said.

The top Russian diplomat also said there was an attempted coup in Gambia in 2014 and “the White House announced that the US will never recognize the forces that seized power in the country by unconstitutional means.” 

Lavrov also mentioned some of the more recent events when the Americans and their allies outright rejected protests against the “puppet” government of Maria Sandu in Moldova, but fully backed the demonstrations by the supporters of former president Mikhail Saakashvili in Georgia, where the West “doesn’t like the current government.”

 

4. CNN: Washington expected more bloodshed from Wagner mutiny

US officials anticipated stronger resistance from regular Russian troops during the aborted coup, the network reported. The US expected more resistance to the coup attempt by the Wagner private military company as Evgeny Prigozhin advanced on Moscow, a source has told CNN, predicting that the aborted insurrection would be “a lot more a bloody one than it was.”

The intelligence community in Washington claimed to have had advance information about Prigozhin’s actions, according to reports in the US media, and also believed it would result in greater bloodshed.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 266. By July 5 Kiev decided not to attack the ZNPP. But when it will?

July. 5, 2023

 

1. Kiev’s plot against the ZNPP: the latest one from many previous attempts

Reliable sources have informed that Ukraine that sustained heavy losses during totally unprepared ‘counteroffensive or ‘offensive’ was on the verge to launch a large-scale attack on the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on July 5, 2023 with a missile stuffed with radioactive waste, a senior Russian atomic energy industry official warned on July 4, 2023.

The warning was voiced by Renat Karchaa, a senior aide to the head of Rosenergoatom, a subsidiary to Russia’s state-owned atomic energy giant Rosatom. The official cited intelligence data received by the industry. “On July 5……, Ukrainian forces will attempt an attack on the Zaporozhye plant with long-range high-precision munitions, as well as suicide drones,” he told Rossiya 24 TV channel.

The apparent goal of the secondary attack is to cause an uptick in radioactivity readings in the region should the main launch fail to damage the facility enough to cause the release of hazardous materials into the air.

Kiev was also expected to attempt a strike on the plant with a heavy, Soviet-made Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile, Karchaa went on. The munition has been filled with radioactive waste collected from the South-Ukrainian NPP, totally controlled by Kiev military junta.


Alarming records:

Irrelevant and unprofessional Ukrainian chieftains have recently intentionally damaged Kakholvka Dam that caused heavy flooding in the vast area controlled by Russia; exploded ammonia pipeline that originates from the mainland Russia and ends in Odessa and still is owned by Russia, and shelled the ZNPP more than 50 times by more than 400 different shells and rockets since Russian began its operating and monitoring.


 

Currently the ZNPP is controlled by Russia likewise the territory where it is operating.

Though Rafael Mariano Grossi, the IAEA Director-General, denied rumors circulated by Ukrainian bosses that Russia has allegedly placed some mines at the ZNPP, he never criticized Kiev for shelling the station so many times and damaged it electric grid and cooling system several times.

Vesti FM Russian federal radio station reported that late at night on July 4, 2023 a number of Western leaders made several telephone calls to Ukrainian leaders persuading them not to attack and damage the ZNPP that could create a severe disaster to the adjacent countries in Europe.


So, by July 5, 2023 Kiev decided not to attack the ZNPP. But when it will if its threats in so many cases became a reality?

 


2. Medvedev proposed how Ukraine aggression could ‘end in days’

The ongoing conflict between Moscow and Kiev has been dragging on for so long due to continued Western arms shipments to Ukraine, Russian former president Dmitry Medvedev told TASS on July 5, 2023.

“If NATO, primarily the USA and its vassals, had stopped supplying weapons and munitions to Ukraine, the [Russian] Special Military Operation would have ended in mere months,” Medvedev told the news agency. It can still end “in days,” however, if Washington and its allies stopped the deliveries, he added.

Medvedev, who currently serves as Deputy Head of the Russian Security Council, warned that Russia would prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, even if it meant engaging in a “permanent” conflict. Moscow has demanded its security concerns be respected when it comes to NATO expansion, he said, adding that Russia’s existence is at stake” and it would not hesitate to stop this threat “one way or another.”

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 267. Biden delivers cluster munitions to Kiev

 

July 9,2023

1. Moscow expressed strong criticism over cluster munitions to be delivered to Kiev by the USA

The White House and the Pentagon confirmed on July 7, 2023 that the US would be sending dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (DPICM) to Ukraine. One of the reasons cited was that the West is running short of conventional 155mm artillery shells. Washington also announced its intention to deliver to such unpredictable and failed state another inhuman weapons – cluster munitions prohibited by the international Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM).


The shells, which can be fired from Ukraine’s NATO-supplied 155mm artillery, scatter many small ‘bomblets’ over a wide area, some of which fail to immediately explode and pose severe risks to civilians for years after fighting ends. Cluster munitions are banned by more than 120 countries

 


 

“Through the cluster munition deliveries, Washington de-facto becomes an accomplice in mining [Ukraine’s] territory and will share full responsibility for the deaths… of both Russian and Ukrainian children, Russian MFA stated on July 8. "Washington is well aware that the assurances of Ukrainian Nazis to use these indiscriminate weapons ‘in a careful’ and ‘responsible’ way are worthless. Civilians will be targeted, as it has happened every time when more and more deadly US-NATO weapon systems were sent to Ukraine," the statement said.

“The administration completely ignored the arguments about the inhumanity of such a step voiced by experts, human rights activists and lawmakers, turning a blind eye to civilian casualties. Now, through the fault of the United States, for many years there will be a risk that innocent civilians will be blown up by malfunctioning submunitions,” – Russian Ambassador to the USA Anatoly Antonov said. “What’s striking is the cruelty and cynicism with which Washington approached the issue of transferring deadly weapons to Kiev,” the ambassador outlined. He also added that the move announced by the US ignores concerns from Washington’s allies – most of which have ratified the CCM – as well as the misgivings of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

Current Kiev’s military and political junta has already used cluster munitions against civilians in Donbass.


The delivery of such weapons to a real aggressor state that unleashed two successive aggressions – initially against Donbass and later on against Russia – is aimed to continue massive attacks by Armed Forces of Ukraine on civilians in Ukraine and Russia. Their death toll has already exceeded 20,000 persons


 

Canada and the UK have become the latest Western nations to voice concern over US President Joe Biden’s decision to provide cluster munitions to Ukraine. Both countries have reaffirmed their commitment to a UN agreement banning the armaments and spoken against employing them in the current conflict with Russia.

“We do not support the use of cluster munitions,” the Canadian government told the national broadcaster CTV on Saturday. Ottawa is “committed to putting an end to the effects cluster munitions have on civilians – particularly children,” the statement read.

Separately, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told journalists that London also does not support employing cluster bombs. “The UK is a signatory to a convention that prohibits production or use of cluster munitions and discourages their use,” he explained, adding that London would continue to support Ukraine through other means.

Cluster munitions should not be used by Ukraine “under any circumstances,” Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles said on July 9. Her comment came a day after the US announced that it would send the controversial ordnance to Ukraine, amid a shortage in conventional shells. “Spain, based on the firm commitment it has with Ukraine, also has a firm commitment that certain weapons and bombs cannot be delivered under any circumstances,” Robles told reporters after a rally in Madrid. Spain says "no to cluster bombs and yes to the legitimate defense of Ukraine, which we understand should not be carried out with cluster bombs,” Robles added, according to Reuters.


All chains of deliveries of cluster munitions to Ukraine and their storage sites should be destroyed very actively by Russian Armed Forces before they will be practically used against cities and other populated areas by AFU, many Russian political figures underscored


 

2. US preparing ‘Israel-style’ security guarantees for Ukraine

The US is willing to offer Kiev a sort of security arrangement currently offered to Israel instead of membership in NATO, President Joe Biden told CNN in an interview previewed on July 7. “I don’t think it’s ready for membership in NATO,” Biden said of Ukraine. “I don’t think there is unanimity in NATO about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the NATO family now, at this moment, in the middle of a war.”

Membership in the US-led military bloc means a commitment to defend all of its territory, so “if the war is going on, then we’re all in a war. We’re at war with Russia, if that were the case,” Biden told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria.

Ukraine has demanded an invitation from NATO, or at least an announcement of when it might be ready to bring it on board, at the upcoming summit in Vilnius, Lithuania to be held on July 11-12.

The ‘Israel model’ was first mentioned last month by the New York Times, which described it as a time-limited commitment to maintain the flow of Western weapons to Ukraine. The US and its allies have supplied Kiev with over $100 billion in weapons, ammunition, and equipment in 2022 alone, according to Russian military estimates.

3. Ukraine does not have any right to join NATO due to strict criteria

In 1995, the Alliance published the results of a Study on NATO Enlargement that considered the merits of admitting new members and how they should be brought in by meeting certain criteria.

The Study specified that any aspirant state to become a NATO member should: encourage and support democratic reforms, including the establishment of civilian and democratic control over military forces; foster patterns and habits of cooperation, consultation and consensus-building characteristic of relations among members of the Alliance; and promote good-neighbourly relations.

It would also increase transparency in defence planning and military budgets, thereby reinforcing confidence among states, and would reinforce the overall tendency toward closer integration and cooperation in Europe.


According to the Study, countries seeking NATO membership would have to be able to demonstrate that they have fulfilled certain requirements. These include:


 

  •  a functioning democratic political system based on a market economy;
  •  the fair treatment of minority populations;
  •  a commitment to the peaceful resolution of conflicts;
  •  the ability and willingness to make a military contribution to NATO operations; and
  •  a commitment to democratic civil-military relations and institutional structures.

A STRAIGHT-FORWARD QUESTION:

Does Ukraine meet all these criteria and requirements for its NATO membership?

Ask me something easier!


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 269. US F-16 in Ukrainian air space: a nuclear threat to Europe

July 13, 2023

1.  Putin: foreign tanks “burn better” than the Soviet-made ones

Speaking about Western missiles and tanks supplied to Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin noted that they cause damage but do not pose a critical threat in the combat zone.

“As for the supply of weapons, various weapons, we see how many hopes were placed on the supply of missiles with a sufficiently long range. Well, yes, they cause damage, but nothing critical happens in the combat zone with the use of missiles. The same goes for foreign-made tanks, infantry fighting vehicles,” Putin said on air at the Rossiya 24 broadcaster.

The president added that 311 pieces of military equipment used by Ukraine and at least one third of those were Western-made has been destroyed since June 4 when abortive Ukrainian “offensive” turned to be a disaster for Kiev junta.


“I can tell you that Ukrainian servicemen often refuse to even get into these tanks, because they are a priority target for our guys,” Putin said, adding that foreign tanks “burn better” than the Soviet-made ones.


2. Lavrov:  Russia will treat DCA F-16s in Ukraine as a nuclear threat

In an interview on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 12, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said “there will be the transfer of F-16s [to Ukraine], likely from European countries that have excess F-16 supplies.”

The reaction of Moscow was rather tough.

Moscow can’t ignore the nuclear capability of US-designed F-16 fighter jets that may be supplied to Ukraine by its Western backers, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said.


Some modifications of the US F-16 are de facto dual-capable aircraft or DCA. They are already stationed in NATO countries located very close to Russia.

They can carry different types of nuclear bombs with 0.3 kt to 300 kt nuclear yield warheads.


By continuing to provide more sophisticated arms to Kiev, “the US and its NATO satellites create the risk of a direct armed confrontation with Russia, and this may lead to catastrophic consequences,” Lavrov warned in his interview with Lenta.ru on July 12.

The plans to supply F-16s to Kiev is yet another example of an escalatory move by the West and in itself is “an extremely dangerous development,” he stated.

 


“We have informed the nuclear powers – the USA, the UK and France – that Russia can’t ignore the ability of these aircraft to carry nuclear weapons,” Lavrov stressed.


“No assurances [by the West] will help here,” he warned. In the midst of fighting, the Russian military isn’t going to investigate whether any specific jet is equipped to deliver nuclear weapons or not, he added.

“The very fact of the appearance of such systems within the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be considered by us as a threat from the West in the nuclear domain,” Lavrov underlined.

 

3. Ben Wallace: “We’re not Amazon” [in response to Ukraine’s weapons demands]

Ukraine should adopt a less demanding tone when speaking to nations that are arming it to fight against Russia, UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has suggested. “We are not Amazon,” he said.

The remarks, which were quoted by the British media, were made during the NATO summit in Lithuania on July 12. Wallace, who is normally a vocal supporter of Kiev, said it would help Ukraine’s cause if they displayed some gratitude.


The UK is the second-largest donor to Kiev with $6 billion worth of materials, while the US has committed over $46 billion, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany, which runs the Ukraine Support Tracker.


US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan also said some of Kiev's criticism was “entirely unfounded and unjustified,” noting that Washington has provided “an enormous amount of capacity” to the Ukrainian military. “I think the American people do deserve a degree of gratitude from the United States Government [sic] for their willingness to step up, and from the rest of the world as well,” Sullivan said, shortly before the meeting between Zelensky and US President Joe Biden in Lithuanian capital.

Zelensky and his staff decided to send the “provocative” tweet in an attempt to shift the debate within NATO to their favor, Bloomberg reported on July 12, citing “more than a dozen diplomats and officials,” all speaking on condition of anonymity. The move proved “counterproductive,” according to the outlet.


Several NATO leaders told Zelensky over dinner on July 11 that he should “cool down” and look at what NATO was actually offering.


 

They have been irritated that Zelensky is frequently spreading a long list of irrational demands for more and more NATO arms to be delivered the Armed Forces of Ukraine that are spending them without any rationality.

At the same time NATO believes its priority is to supply Kiev with advanced weapons systems and a huge amount of ammunition and spare parts for them, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on July 12.


FOOD FOR THOUGHT:

After Russian resistance to Ukrainian-NATO aggression, since February 24, 2022 in total, the aggressors’ 455 airplanes; 242 helicopters; 4,981 unmanned aerial vehicles; 426 air defence missile systems; 10,668 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles;1,137 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS; 5,421 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 11,626 special military motor vehicles have been destroyed during the Special Military Operation.

Source: Russian MoD, July 12, 2023


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 27. Address of the Head of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy

March 25, 2022

The main goals of the military operation

In accordance with the decision of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief since February 24 this year. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are conducting a special military operation.

Its main goal is to provide assistance to the people of the Lugansk and Donetsk people's republics, who have been subjected to genocide by the Kiev regime for the last 8 years.

It was impossible to achieve this goal by political means. Kiev has publicly refused to implement the Minsk agreements. The Ukrainian leadership twice in 2014 and 2015 tried to solve the so-called Donbass problem by military means, was defeated, but did not change its plans on resolving conflict by force in the East of the country. According to reliable data, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were completing the preparation of a military operation to take control of the territory of the People's Republics.

In these conditions, it was possible to help the Donetsk and Lugansk republics only by providing them with military assistance. Which Russia has done.

There were two possible courses of action

The first is to limit the territory to only the DPR and the LPR within the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, which is enshrined in the constitutions of the republics. But then we would be faced with constant feeding by the Ukrainian authorities of the grouping involved in the so-called joint force operation.

Therefore, the second option was chosen, which provides for actions throughout the territory of Ukraine with the implementation of measures for its demilitarization and denazification.

The course of the operation confirmed the validity of this decision. It is conducted by the General Staff in strict accordance with the approved plan. The tasks are carried out taking into account minimizing losses among personnel and minimizing damage to civilians. With the beginning of a special military operation, air supremacy was won during the first two days.

Offensive actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are carried out in various directions

As a result, Russian troops blocked Kiev, Kharkov, Chernigov, Sumy and Nikolaev. Kherson and most of the Zaporozhye region are under full control. The public and individual experts are wondering what we are doing in the area of blocked Ukrainian cities.

These actions are carried out with the aim of causing such damage to military infrastructure, equipment, personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the results of which allow not only to shackle their forces and do not give them the opportunity to strengthen their grouping in the Donbass, but also will not allow them to do so until the Russian army completely liberates the territories of the DPR and LPR.

Initially, we did not plan to storm them in order to prevent destruction and minimize losses among personnel and civilians.

And although we do not rule out such a possibility, however, as individual groups complete their tasks, and they are being solved successfully, our forces and means will concentrate on the main thing – the complete liberation of Donbass. Significant territories of the Lugansk and Donetsk people's republics have also been liberated. The people's militia has taken control of 276 settlements that were previously under the control of the Ukrainian army and the national battalions.

Demilitarization of Ukraine

Demilitarization of Ukraine is achieved both by high-precision strikes on military infrastructure facilities, locations of formations and military units, airfields, control points, arsenals and warehouses of weapons and military equipment, and by the actions of troops to defeat opposing enemy groupings.

Currently, the Ukrainian air forces and the air defence system have been almost completely destroyed. The naval forces of the country ceased to exist.

16 main military airfields were defeated, from which combat sorties of the AFU aviation were carried out. 39 storage bases and arsenals were destroyed, which contained up to 70% of all stocks of military equipment, materiel and fuel, as well as more than 1 million 54 thousand tons of ammunition.

All 24 formations of the Land Forces that existed before the start of the operation suffered significant losses. Ukraine has no organized reserves left.

Losses are replenished at the expense of mobilized persons and personnel of the territorial defence forces who do not have the necessary training, which increases the risk of large losses.

At the time of the start of the special military operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, together with the National Guard, numbered 260 thousand 200 servicemen. During the month of hostilities, their losses amounted to about 30 thousand people, including more than 14 thousand - irretrievable and about 16 thousand - sanitary.

Of the 2,416 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles that were in combat on February 24th, 1,587 units were destroyed; 636 units out of 1,509 field artillery guns and mortars; 163 out of 535 MLRS; 112 out of 152 aircraft, 75 out of 149 helicopters; 36 Bayraktar TB-2 and  UAVs - 35; 180 out of 148 S-300 and Buk M1 air defence systems; 300 out of 117 radars for various purposes.

The AFU continue to use high-powered weapons indiscriminately against towns in Donbass. An example of this is the strikes by the Tochka-U missile system on the civilian population of Donetsk and Makeyevka.

In this regard, they are the primary targets.

As of today, 7 Tochka-U launchers have been destroyed, and 85% of missiles are in arsenals and in the air. This significantly limited Ukraine's capabilities for their combat use.

Since the beginning of hostilities, the Western countries have supplied the Kiev regime with 109 field artillery guns, 3,800 anti-tank weapons, including Javelin, Milan, Konkurs, NLAW ATGM, M-72, Panzerfaust-3, 897 Stinger and Igla MANPADS.

Supply weapons to Kiev is the vast mistake made by Western countries

We consider it a vast mistake for Western countries to supply weapons to Kiev. This delays the conflict, increases the number of victims and will not be able to influence the outcome of the operation.

The real purpose of such supplies is not to support Ukraine, but to drag it into a long-term military conflict "to the last Ukrainian."

We are closely monitoring the statements of the military and political leadership of individual countries about their intention to supply aircraft and air defence systems to Ukraine. In case of implementation– we will not leave it without attention.

We also hear assurances from NATO leaders about non-interference in the conflict. At the same time, some member states of the North Atlantic Alliance propose to close the airspace over Ukraine. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will immediately respond accordingly to such attempts.

In order to prevent the restoration of weapons and military equipment of the AFU that have received combat damage, the Russian Armed Forces are disabling repair enterprises, arsenals, storage bases, logistics warehouses with high-precision weapons.

At the moment, 30 key enterprises of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex have been hit by cruise missiles X-101, Kalibr, Iskander, and the Kinzhal aviation complex, which carried out repairs of 68% of weapons and equipment disabled during combat operations.

Russian modern weaponry has proven to be highly accurate, reliable and capable of operational use.

I would like to emphasize that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation do not strike at civilian infrastructure facilities, including the destruction of bridges across rivers.

127 bridges were destroyed in the area of military operations. All of them were blown up by Ukrainian nationalists in order to deter the advance of our troops. Another example of recklessness is the mining of approaches to the ports of Odessa, Ochakov, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny, where over 400 anchor mines of obsolete types are installed. At least 10 mines have broken anchor and are drifting in the western part of the Black Sea, which poses a real threat to warships and civilian vessels.

The rampant crime, looting and marauding and civilian deaths have been caused by the Ukrainian regime's massive uncontrolled distribution of tens of thousands of small arms to the civilian population, including to criminals released from prisons. The situation will only get worse in the future.

The course of hostilities, the testimonies of civilians who left the blockaded settlements and captured Ukrainian servicemen show that today the AFU's ability to resist is based on fear of reprisals by neo-Nazis. Their representatives are embedded in all military units.

De-Nazification of Ukraine

The mainstay of the Kiev regime are nationalist formations such as Azov, Aidar, Right Sector and others recognized in Russia as terrorist organizations. In Mariupol alone, they include more than 7 thousand militants who are fighting under the guise of civilians, using them as a "human shield".

The militants of the Azov battalion drive women and children out of the basements, threatening them with weapons, and send them towards the advancing units of the DPR in order to hinder the advance of the people's militia. This has become a common practice for them.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, on the contrary, seek to avoid unnecessary losses. Before the start of the offensive, the AFU units are invited to leave the combat area and move along with equipment and weapons to the point of permanent deployment. Not to resist when the offensive begins and those who lay down their arms are guaranteed safety.

Civilians caught in a war zone are always advised to stay in their homes.

Humanitarian corridors

Humanitarian corridors are being organized in all cities to get the population out of the area of hostilities, and their security is also maintained. Humanitarian corridors are being created in all towns to allow people to leave the area where the fighting is taking place, and their security is being maintained.

In addition, at the initiative of the Ukrainian leadership, the country has become a home to 6,595 foreign mercenaries and terrorists from 62 states.They are not subject to the rules of war and will be ruthlessly destroyed.

Today, the number of foreign mercenaries is declining. This was facilitated by high-precision strikes on their bases and training camps. On March 13, more than 200 militants were killed and more than 400 wounded in Starichi and at the Yavorovskii training ground alone.

I note that not a single foreign mercenary has arrived in Ukraine in the last seven days. On the contrary, there has been an outflow. Within a week, 285 fighters escaped into Poland, Hungary and Romania, I hope without Stingers and Javelins.

Previous experience has shown that man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS) and ATGMs are spreading out fairly quickly, along with the mercenaries who return home.

In general, the main objectives of the first phase of the operation have been achieved. The combat capabilities of Ukraine's Armed Forces have been significantly reduced, which allows us, once again, to concentrate our main efforts on achieving the main goal - the liberation of Donbass.

In eight years, in the area of the so-called "joint forces operation", a defence belt has been prepared that is deeply echeloned and well-fortified in engineering terms, consisting of a system of monolithic, long-term concrete structures.

In this regard, in order to minimize casualties among the troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Lugansk and Donetsk people's republics, the conduct of offensive operations is preceded by a heavy fire attack on the enemy's strongholds and their reserves.

At the beginning of the special military operation, the LPR and DPR people's militias were confronted by a group of 59,300 people comprising the most combat-ready units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the National Guard and nationalist formations.

As a result, Ukraine's security forces in the OOS zone lost about 16,000 people, or 26% of their total strength as of 24 February this year.

More than 7,000 of them were irrecoverable losses.

Replacing losses is prevented by isolating the Ukrainian grouping of troops in Donbass, taking control of railway stations and key road routes with firepower.

The supply of missiles and ammunition, fuel and food to Ukrainian forces has been almost completely halted.

The field depots of missile and artillery weapons and ammunition, as well as fuel located directly in the area of the Joint Forces Operation are being hit. To date, 32 facilities have been destroyed, or 61% of the total.

Liberation of Donbass

All weapons and military equipment, including foreign-made, seized by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation during the special military operation are handed over to the People's Republics. Already 113 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 138 Javelin and 67 NLAW grenade launchers and other trophy weapons have been handed over.

Units of the People's Militia of the Lugansk People's Republic have liberated 93% of the republic's territory.

Fighting is currently taking place on the outskirts of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

The People's Militia of the Donetsk People's Republic controls 54% of the territory. The liberation of Mariupol continues.

Units of the Russian Armed Forces together with the People's Militia of the Donetsk People's Republic are conducting an offensive to liberate settlements to the west of Donetsk.

Unfortunately, there are casualties among our comrades-in-arms during the special military operation. As of today, 1,351 servicemen have been killed and 3,825 wounded.

All family support solutions will be taken over by the state, raising children up to higher education, full repayment of loans, housing solutions.

We receive a large number of appeals from Russian citizens wishing to take part in the special military operation to liberate Ukraine from Nazism. In addition, more than 23,000 foreigners from 37 countries have expressed their willingness to fight on the side of the People's Republics. We offered the leadership of the LPR and DPR to accept this assistance, but they said they would defend their land themselves.They have enough power and resources.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will continue to conduct a planned special military operation until the tasks set by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief have been completed.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 271. PUTIN MADE CRITICAL REMARKS ON ‘THE LUBLIN TRIANGLE’

July 22, 2023

1. The President has instructed Russian special services to closely monitor the developments.

Responding to Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin’s information that officials in Warsaw are beginning to understand that Ukraine will be defeated in only the matter of time, and they are getting more intent on taking the western parts of Ukraine under control by deploying their troops there by the Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian security initiative, the so-called Lublin Triangle, President Putin made critical remarks to such idea at the recent national Security Council.

Amongst other points he outlined are the following considerations.

It is clear today that the Western curators of the Kiev regime are certainly disappointed with the results of the counteroffensive that the current Ukrainian authorities announced in previous months. There are no results, at least for now. The colossal resources that were pumped into the Kiev regime, the supply of Western weapons, such as tanks, artillery, armored vehicles and missiles, and the deployment of thousands of foreign mercenaries and advisers, who were most actively used in attempts to break through the front of our army, are not helping.

Meanwhile, the commanders of the Special Military Operation are acting professionally. Our soldiers, officers and units are fulfilling their duty to the Motherland courageously, steadfastly and heroically. At the same time, the whole world sees that the vaunted Western, supposedly invulnerable, military equipment is on fire, and is often even inferior to some of the Soviet-made weapons in terms of its tactical and technical characteristics.

Yes, of course, more Western weapons can be supplied and thrown into battle. This, of course, causes us some damage and prolongs the conflict.

 

But, firstly, NATO arsenals and stockpiles of old Soviet weapons in some countries are already largely depleted. And secondly, the West does not have the production capacities to quickly replenish the consumption of reserves of equipment and ammunition. Additional, large resources and time are needed.

 

The main thing is that formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered huge losses as a result of self-destructive attacks: tens of thousands of people.

And, despite the constant raids and the incessant waves of total mobilisation in Ukrainian cities and villages, it is increasingly difficult for the current regime to send new soldiers to the front. The country’s mobilisation resource is being depleted.

People in Ukraine are asking a legitimate question more often: for what, for the sake of whose selfish interests, are their relatives and friends dying. Gradually, slowly, but clarity comes.

We can see the public opinion changing in Europe, too. Both the Europeans and European elites see that support for Ukraine is, in fact, a dead end, an empty, endless waste of money and effort, and in fact, serving someone else’s interests, which are far from European: the interests of the overseas global hegemon, which benefits from the weakening of Europe. The endless prolongation of the Ukrainian conflict is also beneficial to it.

Judging by the actual state of affairs, this is exactly what today’s US ruling elites are doing. Anyways, this is the logic they follow. It is largely questionable whether such a policy is in line with the American people’s true, vital interests; this is a rhetorical question, and it is up to them to decide.

However, massive efforts are being taken to stoke the fire of war – including by exploiting the ambitions of certain East European leaders, who have long turned their hatred for Russia and Russophobia into their key export commodity and a tool of their domestic policy. And now they want to capitalise on the Ukrainian tragedy.

In this regard, I cannot refrain from commenting on what has just been said and on media reports that have come out about plans to establish some sort of the so-called Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian unit. This is not about a group of mercenaries – there are plenty of them there and they are being destroyed [author’s note: nearly 5,000 have been killed] – but about a well-organised, equipped regular military unit to be used for operations in Ukraine, including to allegedly ensure the security of today’s Western Ukraine – actually, to call things by their true name, for the subsequent occupation of these territories. The outlook is clear: in the event Polish forces enter, say, Lvov or other Ukrainian territories, they will stay there, and they will stay there for good.

And we will actually see nothing new. Just to remind you, following WWI, after the defeat of Germany and its allies, Polish units occupied Lvov and adjacent territories that had been part of Austria-Hungary.

With its actions incited by the West, Poland took advantage of the tragedy of the Civil War in Russia and annexed certain historical Russian provinces. In dire straits, our country had to sign the Treaty of Riga in 1921 and recognise the annexation of its territories.

Even earlier, back in 1920, Poland captured part of Lithuania – the Vilnius region, a territory surrounding the present-day Vilnius. So they claimed that they fought together with the Lithuanians against so-called Russian imperialism, but then immediately snatched a piece of land from their neighbour as soon as the opportunity presented itself.

As is well known, Poland also took part in the partition of Czechoslovakia following the Munich Agreement with Adolf Hitler in 1938, by fully occupying Cieszyn Silesia.

In the 1920-1930s, Poland’s Eastern Borderlands (Kresy) – a territory that comprises present-day Western Ukraine, Western Belarus and part of Lithuania – witnessed a tough policy of Polonisation and assimilation of local residents, with efforts to suppress local culture and Orthodoxy.

I would also like to remind you what Poland’s aggressive policy led to. It led to the national tragedy of 1939, when Poland’s Western allies threw it to the German wolf, the German miliary machine. Poland actually lost its independence and statehood, which were only restored thanks in a large measure to the Soviet Union. It was also thanks to the Soviet Union and thanks to Stalin’s position that Poland acquired substantial territory in the west, German territory. It is a fact that Poland’s western lands are a gift from Stalin.

Have our Warsaw friends forgotten this? We will remind them.

 

Today we see that the regime in Kiev is ready to go to any length to save its treacherous hide and to prolong its existence. They do not care for the people of Ukraine or Ukrainian sovereignty or national interests.

 

They are ready to sell anything, including people and land, just like their ideological forefathers led by Petlyura, who signed the so-called secret conventions with Poland in 1920 under which they ceded Galicia and Western Volhynia to Poland in return for military support. Traitors like them are ready now to open the gate to their foreign handlers and to sell Ukraine again.

As for the Polish leaders, they probably hope to form a coalition under the NATO umbrella in order to directly intervene in the conflict in Ukraine and to bite off as much as possible, to “regain,” as they see it, their historical territories, that is, modern-day Western Ukraine. It is also common knowledge that they dream about Belarusian land.

Regarding the policy of the Ukrainian regime, it is none of our business. If they want to relinquish or sell off something in order to pay their bosses, as traitors usually do, that’s their business. We will not interfere.

But Belarus is part of the Union State, and launching an aggression against Belarus would mean launching an aggression against the Russian Federation. We will respond to that with all the resources available to us.

The Polish authorities, who are nurturing their revanchist ambitions, hide the truth from their people. The truth is that the Ukrainian cannon fodder is no longer enough for the West. That is why it is planning to use other expendables – Poles, Lithuanians and everyone else they do not care about.

I can tell you that this is an extremely dangerous game, and the authors of such plans should think about the consequences.

Mr Naryshkin, I hope that your service, just as the other special services, will closely monitor the developments.

 

2. MoD reveals details of deadly Ukrainian strike on Russian reporters

 

One journalist was killed and four others wounded in the attack in Zaporozhye Region, the Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed on July 22.  Ukraine used cluster munitions in the shelling of a group of Russian journalists in Zaporozhye Region, killing RIA Novosti news agency correspondent Rostislav Zhuravlev, the Russian Defense Ministry has said the same day.

 

It was intentional attack made by AFU.

 

The attack, which targeted crews from RIA Novosti and Izvestia media outlets, took place at around noon. According to the statement, RIA Novosti and Izvestia news crews arrived in the area “to prepare reports on the shelling of settlements in Zaporozhye Region with cluster munitions by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.”

The US announced the delivery of cluster munitions to Ukraine earlier this month, saying the move was necessary due to a shortage of regular artillery rounds among Kiev’s Western backers. The controversial shells, which contain multiple bomblets that are dispersed over a large area and put civilians at risk, have been banned in more than 100 countries. However, Ukraine, the US and Russia aren’t among the signatories of the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM).

Washington claimed that Kiev had promised to deploy cluster munitions responsibly and steer clear of densely populated areas. On July 20, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby confirmed that the Ukrainian forces had begun using US-supplied cluster rounds in its operations.

Russian Foreign Ministry has warned that those who were involved in the brutal attack on Russian journalist Rostislav Zhuravlev will be held accountable, and responsibility will also be shared by the suppliers of cluster bombs to Kiev, namely the USA.

"

3. Ukraine also attacked Russia's Belgorod Region with cluster munitions

 

A village in Belgorod Region was targeted with cluster munitions Vyacheslav Gladkov, local Governor, said on July 22.

At least three cluster munitions were employed by Kiev's forces during a large-scale attack on the settlement of Zhuravlevka. According to him, 21 artillery shells and ten mortar rounds were also fired at the village. It was also targeted by a kamikaze drone.

No casualties or damage were repoted in Zhuravlevka as a result of the shelling, Gladkov said.

So, up to now it was the third recent cluster munitions attack made by Ukraine.

Previously, in 2022 it shelled heavily Donbass by using them. Russia never responded to such earlier attacks.

 

President Vladimir Putin noted last week that the US itself had earlier branded the use of cluster munitions “a crime,” saying this was exactly how he regarded the delivery of such weapons to Kiev by Washington. The Russian military has a “sufficient” stock of cluster munitions, which it can also put to use in a tit-for-tat response to such weapons being deployed by Ukraine, the president warned.

 

4. Moscow listed seven conditions for grain deal resumption

 

Restrictions on Russia’s agricultural exports and supporting infrastructure should be lifted, Dmitry Polyansky, the Russian Deputy UN envoy said on July 21. Russia is ready to rejoin the grain deal brokered by the UN and Türkiye, but only on the condition that Western nations and Ukraine meet their long-standing obligations, he added.

Speaking at a UN Security Council briefing on the Black Sea Initiative, he noted that Russia’s decision to withdraw from the pact, which sought to unblock agricultural exports, “should not have come as a surprise to anyone” given that nothing has been done to address Moscow’s grievances.

The diplomat stressed that Russia recognizes the importance of the grain deal for global food supplies and is “ready to consider returning to it, but only… if all the previously agreed principles of Russia’s participation in this deal are fully taken on board and… implemented without exception.”

 

Listing Russia’s conditions, Polyansky insisted that sanctions on the country’s grain and fertilizer exports to global markets should be lifted “in practical terms rather than just in words”

 

In his words, while all obstacles to Russian financial institutions involved in the sector must also be removed, including their reconnection to the SWIFT payment system. Russia should once again enjoy an uninterrupted supply of spare parts and components for agricultural machinery, the diplomat said, adding that all issues related to vessel freight and insurance of Russian food exports must also be resolved. Another requirement, Polyansky continued, is that there should be no impediments to expanding Russian exports of fertilizer materials, including the restoration of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline, which was seriously damaged last month by Armed Forces of Ukraine.

In addition, all Russian assets related to the agricultural sector must be released.

And as a seventh and final condition, the grain deal itself “must recover its initial humanitarian nature” and serve to alleviate food issues in developing countries rather than making rich countries even richer.

Moscow withdrew from the grain deal on Monday, with Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov describing the arrangement as a “one-sided game” and noting that none of Russia’s long-standing demands had been met.

 

Following the move, the Russian Defense Ministry said any ships sailing to Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea would be “considered potential carriers of military cargo.” In response, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry accused Moscow of turning the Black Sea into a “danger zone,” issuing a similar warning to all vessels in the area bound for Russia.

 

On July 19, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced that effective at midnight Moscow time on July 20, Russia, in connection with the termination of the grain deal, will consider all ships destined for Ukrainian ports traversing the Black Sea to be carriers of military cargo.

 

The Defense Ministry clarified that those countries under whose flags such vessels are sailing will be deemed to be involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of Kiev. The ministry also reported that a number of sea areas in the northwestern and southeastern parts of the international waters of the Black Sea have been declared temporarily dangerous for navigation

 

Russian MFA announced that it has the right to inspect ships in Black Sea if necessary. "Now there is no maritime humanitarian corridor; there are already zones of increased military danger," Sergey Vershinin, the Deputy Foreign Minister, said. "This means an inquiry, an inspection, if necessary, to make sure whether this is true or not," stressed. He called this approach "completely logical, especially after the attacks that took place." "Now there is no maritime humanitarian corridor; there are already zones of increased military danger," he clarified.

In its turn, Kiev threatened to sink civilian ships bound for Russia.

 

 


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 273. New figures on Ukrainian losses

July 31, 2023

1. Defense Minister released new data on Kiev losses during its aggression

Russian Armed Forces have stopped Ukraine’s much-hyped ‘counteroffensive’ dead in its tracks, inflicting tens of thousands of casualties on Kiev’s troops, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said on July 31.

Speaking at a conference, Army General Shoigu noted that Kiev is desperately throwing new forces in a bid to storm Russian positions” but the Russian military thwarted all breakthrough attempts by relying on well-built and organized defenses, adding that the endurance of military personnel played an instrumental role in the success.


As a result, only in July, 2023 Ukraine lost

20,824 servicemen and 2,227 units of military equipment


Also have been destroyed ten German-supplied Leopard tanks, eleven US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, and 50 self-propelled guns from several Western countries, the minister stated.

According to Shoigu, on July 26 and 27 alone Ukraine lost more than 400 service members and 31 tanks and other heavy weaponry near the settlement of Rabotino in Zaporozhye Region controlled by Russia. Recently in that region a Russian single tank managed to destroy two Ukrainian tanks and five armored vehicles.

“It is obvious that the Western-supplied weapons are failing to bring success on the battlefield and only prolong the military conflict,” Shoigu noted.

In his view, “the Kiev regime, with the support of its Western sponsors, is now focused on carrying out terrorist attacks on civilian infrastructure” in Russian cities, Shoigu observed, adding that Moscow has introduced additional security measures and ramped up attacks on Ukrainian military facilities. 

Kiev launched its much-anticipated ‘counteroffensive’ against Russian defenses in the early days of June, but failed to gain any ground, according to the Defense Ministry. Armed Forces of Ukraine failed even to penetrate the first echelon of Russian defense. On the contrary, in some areas Russian Armed Forces managed to move along 15 km long frontline and 4 km deep into aggressors’ fortified positions. Many Ukrainian GIs are refusing to fight and prefer to surrender rather than to die for the false ideas they do not understand or for ‘an Uncle Sam’ they do not respect.

Meanwhile, several media reports have suggested that Kiev’s Western allies have grown alarmed” at the slow progress on the battlefield of a combined Ukrainian-NATO aggression against Russia, while being jolted by Ukrainian losses in armor.

2. Moscow clarified conditions for withdrawal of Russian TNW from Belarus

Russia could consider withdrawing its tactical nuclear weapons or TNW from Belarus if the USA and NATO end their hostile policies toward Moscow and Minsk, and remove America’s nuclear arsenal from Europe and dismantle the relevant infrastructure, Aleksey Polishchuk who is in charge of the MFA Department that monitors relations with Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine, announced in an interview with RIA Novosti published on July 31.

American TNW are currently deployed in four European NATO countries (Belgium, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands), and in the Asian part of Turkey from the middle of 50s. Such forward-based U.S. NW is controlled exclusively by Washington. These TNW can perform strategic functions if they are loaded on heavy strategic bombers.

 

Report # 274. Ukrainian ‘soap opera offensives’ and their results for Kiev

 

August 5, 2023

1. On August 4, 2023 Russian MoD released updated figures related to human and material losses of AFU during their alleged ‘offensive’

Since the beginning of the highly advertised for political reasons ‘soap opera offensives’ by the Kiev regime during June and July, the Armed Forces of Ukraine or AFU losses, in the course of combat actions, have already totaled more than forty-three thousand Ukrainian servicemen.

This figure does not include wounded and foreign mercenaries evacuated to Ukrainian hospitals and abroad, as well as servicemen eliminated as a result of long-range precision weapons strikes in rear areas.


Over four thousand nine hundred units of various AFU weapons have been destroyed on the line of contact, including 26 aircraft, nine helicopters, 1,831 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles.

They included 25 German-manufactured Leopard tanks, seven French AMX wheeled tanks and 21 U.S.-manufactured Bradley infantry fighting vehicles


In addition, the enemy losses were 747 field artillery pieces and mortars, including 76 U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery systems, as well as 84 self-propelled artillery systems from Poland, the United States, France and Germany.

2. Ukraine attacked Russian oil tanker in the Black Sea

Russia’s Federal Agency for Sea and Inland Water Transport reported that Russian oil tanker named “Sig” had its hull damaged near the engine compartment as a result of a Ukrainian sea drone attack. The agency said that the incident occurred on August 4, 2023 south of the Crimean Bridge, which had been also targeted by a Ukrainian naval drone raid last month. It added that none of “Sig”’s 11 crew had been wounded and that the vessel remains afloat. Two tugboats dispatched to help the ship have already arrived and repair works are underway, officials said.

Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian President, blamed the reported attack on Ukraine, accusing Kiev of trying to orchestrate an environmental disaster in the Black Sea.

Vasiliy Malyuk, the head of Ukraine’s Security Service, hinted at the possible role of Kiev in the incident, describing all special ops in Ukraine’s territorial waters are completely legal.

Ukrainian sea drones attacked the Black Sea Fleet Naval base at Novorossiysk early on August 4. Kiev also tried to sink civilian ships sailing towards the Bosphorus on August 1 and 2, the Russian MoD said, adding that all attacking craft had been destroyed by Russian military task force..

So far, the bridge has come under Ukrainian attacks twice.

In October 2022, a truck loaded with explosives detonated on one of the spans, killing three people and causing damage that took months to repair. Last month, a drone boat blew up under one of the segments, killing two civilians and a injuring 14-year-old girl. Last July attack damaged only one lane of the roadway and authorities restored a partial flow of traffic within a day.

Earlier this week, the head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, Aleksey Danilov, confirmed the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) was involved in these both incidents.

3. Politico: Ukrainian F-16 training impeded by language barrier

Western efforts to train Ukrainian pilots to fly advanced F-16 jets are being hampered by the service members’ poor English language skills, Politico reported on August 4, citing reliable sources. According to a U.S. official and a person familiar with the matter interviewed by the outlet, an initial group of eight Ukrainian ‘pilots’ who are allegedly proficient in English are ready to start training once a formal instruction plan is drawn up by several European countries and approved by the Pentagon.


However, “English proficiency remains a sticking point” with the rest of the 32 Ukrainian pilots earmarked for instruction on the F-16 fighter jets, Politico noted.


Efforts to lay the groundwork for the F-16 deliveries apparently hit several stumbling blocks, with a recent Politico report suggesting that the USA and its allies had not agreed on who exactly would train Ukrainian pilots, or where the instruction would take place.

Another report from the same outlet claimed that European countries had not received formal approval from Washington on the matter, with requests for the transfer of instruction manuals, flight simulators, and other materials still in limbo.


A COMMENT:

The most challenging issue for NATO is seemingly not mastering English by Ukrainian ‘pilots’. The most unsurmountable goal for them is: will they be able to operate hi-tech F-16s during ‘dog fights’ with more efficient Russian pilots?



Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 275. Peace settlement on wrong analysis is impossible

 

August 9, 2023

 

1. Moscow stance on the Jeddah meeting on Ukraine

On August 7, 2023 Russian Foreign Ministry gave explanations about the results of meeting on Ukraine held in Jeddah (August 5-6)

Question: What is your comment on the recent meeting on the Ukrainian crisis in Jeddah?

Answer: The Foreign Ministry of Russia took note of the news about the consultations concerning the Ukraine crisis, held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on August 5 and 6, at the initiative of the Kiev regime and the G7. The consultations were attended by our BRICS allies and other partners. We hope they will share their assessments with us in keeping with the existing agreements, and we reiterate our stance on Zelensky’s so-called “peace formula,” which the Kiev regime and the West try to promote at such meetings.


None of its 10 points is aimed at finding a negotiated and diplomatic solution to the crisis, while in their totality they constitute a senseless ultimatum to Russia, directed at dragging out the hostilities. No peaceful settlement is possible on this basis.


By promoting Zelensky’s “formula,” the Kiev regime and the West are attempting to belittle the great importance of peace initiatives proposed by other countries and to monopolize the right to their advancement. In effect, as we said, they are fighting dissent at the international level and making attempts to smuggle in unviable ideas on the settlement by dishonest manipulations.

We greatly appreciate the mediating and humanitarian initiatives advanced by our friends from countries of the Global South, initiatives aimed at reaching peace. Unlike the Kiev regime, which broke off and banned negotiations with Russia, we have always been open to a diplomatic solution to the crisis and are ready to respond to serious proposals. No meetings on the Ukraine crisis add any value without Russia’s participation or regard for its interests.


We are confident that a truly comprehensive, stable and just settlement is only possible if the Kiev regime stops its combat operations and terrorist attacks and if its Western sponsors stop inundating the Armed Forces of Ukraine with weapons.

 


They should confirm the original foundations of Ukraine’s sovereignty, that is, its neutral, non-bloc and nuclear-free status. They should recognize the new territorial realities that took shape after the residents in the new Russian regions exercised their right to self-determination enshrined in the UN Charter. The next step is to ensure Ukraine’s demilitarization and de-Nazification as well as the rights of its Russian speakers and ethnic minorities under its domestic laws and international law. We are certain that implementing these elements fully conforms to international peace and security, which are the goals that Russia is working to reach.

Note: the text highlighted in two boxes above is marked by myself

 

2. My personal comment on some ideas on peace settlement of the situation in Ukraine

(questions have been put by Press Service, Center for Military and Political Studies)

Q: In a number of political proposals put forward by foreign countries dealt with the ways to defuse the current situation in Ukraine there have been idea to immediately reach a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. What is your stance on that matter?

A: In general terms this idea is a positive one. There is nothing wrong with that. Usually, many interstate and regional armed conflicts are resolved namely by such move as initial arrangement that opens up new grounds for further accords along other directions. However, in terms of unjustifiable and cruel Ukrainian-NATO aggression against Russia – unleashed initially since April 13, 2014 against Donbass, and later, since February 14, 2022 against Russia – such principle should be resolved in special order.

Ukraine should be the first side who must officially announce that it will stop military fire and every military activity everywhere along the line of engagement with Russia and on the Russian territory because Ukraine initiated such two types of armed aggression. Kiev’s commitment on a stable and genuine ceasefire has to be certified and guaranteed by NATO and the UN Security Council. As a part of the ceasefire package the Armed Forces of Ukraine should pool back all its contingents from the current line of engagement 500 km deep into Ukrainian territory, and eliminate all their military installations on the demilitarized zone. After the ceasefire arrangement is actually enacted Russia should announce its ceasefire obligations. At the same time, Russian Armed Forces will stay permanently in Crimea, Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions within their original administrative borders existed in 1991.

Q: Some political figures share president Zelensky’s demand that after reaching a verifiable ceasefire agreement by a specific date and hour Russia should return to Ukraine all territories “it has seized after 1991” and return them to Ukraine. What is your opinion: is this proposal feasible for Russia and the population of Crimea, Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions?

A: No, not at all. Such proposals are irrelevant. People of all these areas do not wish to live in an undemocratic, ultra-nationalist state called Ukraine engaged in ethnic cleansing and using heavy weapons against civilians for nearly 9 years state.

Can anybody persuade the population of Crimea that that became a part of Russian Empire since 18th century and where the majority of population are ethnic Russians?

Can anybody you persuade the citizens of two Republics in Donbass that have already lost more than 20,000 civilians killed by Armed Forces of Ukraine or the people of Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions who suffered too many tragedies from current and previous Kiev’s military-political neo-Nazi regimes? Who will urge them to forget that each day and each night their homes and their social infrastructure are being heavily and constantly shelled by NATO heavy 155-mm artillery and missile systems, and by cluster munitions?

Can anybody persuade the Orthodox Christianity followers in all these areas to return to Ukraine that trampled underfoot such religion that is widely professed for more than one thousand years? Never. Nobody can influence upon such people whose voices “Nyet!” (“No!”) have been fixed during the respective referenda.

Q: Many proposals are dealt with the issue of material compensation: who will pay whom? How much, and what for if the aggression is really over? What is your view on that dilemma?

A: In all wars and armed conflicts aggressors have paid such compensation, not the winners and not those who were defending its territories against the aggressor. Could you imagine that anti-Hitler coalition in 1945 paid any compensation to Nazi Germany when the WWII in Europe was over? So, in this particular case Ukraine must pay real compensation to Russia, Crimea, two Donbass’s Republics namely DPR and LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions for all human and material losses they have sustained since April 2014 till now. I believe that Russian position on that issue should be stated clearly and without any delay.

Q: Zelensky issued his presidential decree prohibiting anybody in Ukraine to conduct peace talks with Russia. It is a stumbling block, is not it? What is the way out from such impasse?

A: It is really an impasse, if one side has no desire to conduct peace talks with its opposite number. The exit from such self-imposed deadlocked position is to proclaim null and void such ‘a decree’. Tango without a partner is not a tango.

Q: Are you happy with the term “conflict” or “crisis” or “confrontation” permanently used to identify the present-day developments in Ukraine?

A: No, I am not, and for several reasons.

First, it put on an equal footing the real aggressor (Ukraine) and the country that decided to block such aggression as its victim (Russia). It is wrong formula. Ukraine is de facto and de jure aggressor state who began the policy of genocide and ethnic cleansing against its own citizens and the citizens of Russia.

Second, such three terms you have mentioned prevents to find a genuine political solution of the issue created exclusively by Ukraine and NATO in 2014.

Third, such ‘three-dimensional’ terminology helps the transatlantic alliance to stockpile criminal Ukrainian regime with deadly, long-range heavy weapons that never will bring peace in this part of Europe.


My final brush is: any really stable peace cannot be attained with the help

of wrong analysis of the situation, neglecting objective causes that have created it, and clearly irrelevant terms describing such developments.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 276. Delivery of F-16 to AFU by the USA will explode situation in Europe

August 15, 2023

The USA has not delivered F-16s to Armed Forces of Ukraine or AFU, but has not said yet that it would not send them to Kiev.

If Washington at the end of the day transfer these dual capable aircraft that can carry both conventional and nuclear bombs to the highest militaristic regime in Ukraine such stem will radically worsen political and military situation in Europe that has already reached extremely dangerous situation – much worse that in many decades of the Cold War existed between East and West after the WWII.

No doubt that the USA will place American nuclear weapons to such aircraft fully certified to carry nuclear air-dropped nuclear bombs, especially their new type named B 61-12 having bombs with the low-yield nuclear warhead of 0.3 kiloton and maximum 50 kiloton. It will fully correspond to Joseph Biden’s Nuclear Posture Review or NPR enacted on October 27, 2022 that is still valid.

The 2022 NPR described United States nuclear strategy, policy, posture, and forces in support of the National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy. It reaffirmed a continuing commitment to a safe, secure, “and effective nuclear deterrent and strong and credible extended deterrence.” Strategic deterrence remains a top priority mission for the Department of Defense and the nation. It was promised that for the foreseeable future, nuclear weapons will continue to provide unique deterrence effects that no other element of U.S. military power can replace. To deter aggression and preserve American security in the current security environment, the USA will maintain nuclear forces that are responsive to the threats the country faces. 

The 2022 NPR clearly stated that the U.S. nuclear weapons was tasked to deter aggression, assure allies and partners, and allow the nation to achieve presidential objectives if deterrence fails. In a dynamic security environment, a safe, secure, and effective nuclear deterrent is foundational to broader U.S. defense strategy and the extended deterrence commitments the USA has made to allies and partners. Security architectures in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions are a critical U.S. strategic advantage over those governments that challenge the rules-based international order. These regional security architectures are a key pillar of the National Defense Strategy; this NPR underscores the linkage between the conventional and nuclear elements of collective deterrence and defense.


Strategic deterrent programs will continue for replacing tactical nuclear warheads of three modifications, that is, the “B 61-3”, “B 61-4”, and “B 61-7” tactical nuclear warheads with the smaller-yield “B 61-12” guided bombs.


As well it is anticipated a replacement of nuclear weapons carriers in the form of DCA or dual-capable aircraft “F-15E” medium-range fighter-bombers by “F-35A”, which have already been and still are in the inventory of a number of NATO member countries and non-aligned American partners. Aircraft “F-35A” certified to deliver nuclear bombs, will even be transferred to the nuclear-free Finland, which officially became a member of the transatlantic alliance in 2023. Helsinki has already ordered 64 such airplanes and declared about the readiness to place the American nuclear weapons on its territory.

The 2022 NPR specifically used language about the possibility of using nuclear weapons under extreme circumstances that have not been identified. It rejected anti-nuclear movements’ proposal to move to a declaratory “no first-strike nuclear weapons” policy.

Reported only that a thorough review was conducted on this issue and the proposal to identify a sole purpose for the use of nuclear weapons. It is not said by whom it was conducted or when. But it is not cited or referenced anywhere. In particular, the initiative, outlined by President Joseph Biden shortly after taking office, contained no provisions to change nuclear strategy or the structure of the national nuclear forces. It was only formally designed to prevent the escalation of the use of nuclear weapons, but in essence it was intended to divert any discussion in American society about the non-use of nuclear weapons in the first strike.

The assertion was included that the United States could use nuclear weapons if attacked with nuclear weapons. But at the same time, it is not recorded that the Pentagon has abandoned a different strategic attitude called “launch-on-warning”, which dramatically lowers the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.

The 2022 Nuclear Strategy drew attention to the possibility of escalating combat operations without the use of nuclear weapons into warfare operations that have been conducted with the use of nuclear weapons. It should be recalled: in recent years, the U.S. Armed Forces have conducted large-scale conventional military exercises that usually ended in delivering dummy nuclear strikes, especially very close to the borders of the Russian Federation, to the territory of Russia’s allies and friends.

It was persistently argued that the Russian side has recently allegedly emphasized the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine, although the Russian military and political leadership has never made any direct statement to that effect, not even using the word ‘nuclear weapons’ in this context.  The 2022 NPR noted that Russia’s “aggression” against the Ukrainian state has raised the nuclear threats of Moscow, which “rattles off nuclear weapons” in connection with such “aggression” and threatened the potential use its WMD in the form of tactical nuclear weapons, which, as stated in Joseph Biden’s 2022 NPR could lead to a deliberate or accidental escalation of tensions.

The 2022 NPR at the same time openly stated the need to improve the reliability of the North Atlantic Alliance’s nuclear capability, as well as to foster closer cooperation between the U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces and the nuclear forces of the United Kingdom and France.


It is written that the combat readiness of dual-capable aircraft and the possibility of using the new high-precision guided “B 61-12” air bombs in forward-deployed areas, i.e., near Russian territory, should not be reduced.


According to unclassified estimates, the United States has around 475 “B 61” and “B 83” bombs. Several variants of the “B 61” bombs are undergoing a service life extension program or SLEP to enhance the bomb’s safety, security, and use control features. This program will produce a single variant, known as the “B 61-12”, which will deploy with a new tail kit. This will replace the parachute currently used to slow the bomb’s descent and will improve its accuracy.

NNSA estimated that the “B 61” SLEP will cost nearly $9 billion, with an additional $1-2 billion in Air Force funding for the new tail kit. The new model began to enter the force in 2022. NNSA had planned to retire the “B 83”, the largest bomb remaining in the U.S. arsenal, around 2025, after the completion of the “B 61” LEP.


NATO DCA are also involved in the Baltic Air Policing operation conducted 24hours 7 days a week in the skies of three Baltic nations: Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Estonia.


On June 2, 2023, Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor to the U.S. President, gave a presentation on nuclear arms control at an international conference held at the Arms Control Association in Washington, DC. He made a number of new proposals on this topic, on which the U.S. side has long put a fat cross (Russian folk saying that means completely crossed it out). Naturally, he preferred not to tackle the fate of the U.S. tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) stored in Europe and Asia.

Shortly after Jake Sullivan’s speech, aggressive proposals were made by the ardent U.S. hawk Alexander Vershbow, who spoke in favor of further increasing the number of U.S. TNWs in Europe: It could prompt calls within NATO to expand tactical nuclear weapon deployments in Europe beyond the limited steps called for in the Biden Administration’s Nuclear Posture Review.


The 2022 U.S. NPR, funding U.S. TNW and these two statements underscore the most probable scenario that the current U.S. Administration will fulfill its plans to increase its nuclear capabilities in Europe, specifically in Ukraine.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Report # 277. Why not to deploy TNW in Kaliningrad exclave?

 

Mr. Kozin's interview given to Ukraine.ru website on August 21, 2023 

 

August 21, 2023

Q: You’re back from the Baltic Sea area. How is the situation there? What is happening in Kaliningrad and what is the status of our military grouping there? How much time is needed to deploy it in the event of a threat?

A: The situation is calm. There are many tourists from all over Russia. In hot weather, the beaches on the Baltic Sea coast in Zelenogradsk, Pionersky Resort and Svetlogorsk resemble the Crimean beaches at the height of the summer season in terms of the Russian folk saying: "there is no place for an apple to fall", with meaning: there are no vacant spaces to find where to sit in to relax.

There is a lot to tell you about this year vacation, but not about the "grouping". You obviously mean the military one. It's a state secret. As is the timeframe for its full deployment. But I assume that it has long been in full combat readiness, as too many military preparations arranged by NATO Armed Forces in the Baltic Region, especially since 2009. But, the traditional Naval parade in Baltiysk [located not far away from the Polish border] at the end of July this year, as well as the visible flights of Russian Air Force combat aircraft in the skies of Russia's westernmost exclave sandwiched between two NATO member states – Lithuania and Poland – leave no doubt: this Russian land is under the reliable and combined Russian Armed Forces’ strong protection.

I am also sure that in case of any emergency situation initiated by the militaristic North Atlantic Treaty military alliance against both the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, the nearest neighbors of the Kaliningrad Region which are members of the Alliance participating in the pathologically aggressive pact, will get the most crushing multi-dimensional blow.

At the same time, I believe that the Russian military contingent in the Kaliningrad Region should also be reinforced with our national tactical nuclear weapons or TNW. After the unilateral withdrawal of the USA from the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Nuclear Missiles known as the INF accord signed back in 1987 and its complete termination in 2019, and taking into account the deployment of American TNW on the territory of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia as part of the 24-hour and year-round NATO Air Force operation "Baltic Air Policing" with dual-capable aircraft fitted with nukes that Poland is also seeking to possess, Russia has every right to deploy them on the Kaliningrad soil. Prior to the signing of the said treaty, TNW was deployed there and later have been taken back to the mainland Russia.

Q: The Ukrainian military is reinforcing its defense line on the northern border of Volyn region, bordering Belarus, despite the fact that the situation is calm and controlled. Why did they announce the reinforcement explicitly if the threat remains hypothetical? Do we need to attach importance to this and deal with it?

A: Such military ‘reinforcements‘ forged by NATO that you speak about, are intended to create a threat to the security of both the Kaliningrad Region and the Republic of Belarus. The second reason for the North Atlantic Pact's military preparations in this part of the European continent by deploying ‘forward-deployed’ combat assets is to deter the possibility of a powerful strike delivered by Russia against Ukraine from the rear, against the country which together with NATO unleashed unprovoked large-scale aggression – initially in 2014 against Donbass and later in 2022 against Russia.

And even in recent years, when Ukraine, together with Poland, began to constantly rattle sabers along the borders with Belarus – the Union State with Russia – the U.S. heavy strategic bombers with nuclear weapons on board have been landing in Poland for a long time, and the U.S. missile defense operating base has become operational  in Redzikowo AFB, near Słupsk, capable of loading its 24 launchers with not only defensive but also offensive weapons, including nuclear-capable long-range U.S. cruise missiles. Such a base is located just 180 kilometers from Kaliningrad. From this base it is also possible to strike Moscow (it is located 1,300 kilometers away) and Minsk (it is located 680 kilometers from Redzikovo).

But the Alliance of the ‘transatlantic solidarity’ and Kiev should be firmly aware that Moscow and Minsk already have a guaranteed combined force response to the pumping of NATO weapons in this part of Europe. Moreover, a response that, as they say, will be given "according to the full program" [the meaning is ‘in full scale].

Q: From a military point of view, does it make sense, possible or impossible, for us to carry out an operation - let's say, to occupy Lutsk and Lvov and cut off Ukraine from Western arms supplies through Poland?

A: Carrying out such a force operation is quite possible, with the occupation of Lviv and other major cities and military bases in the northwestern and southwestern parts of Ukraine. It is also possible to continue blocking NATO arms and military equipment supplies with long-range missiles by Russian Air Force air strikes which are already being delivered. There is still some time before the real transfer of American F-16 fighter-bombers to Ukraine, which, by the way, are certified for the delivery of guided nuclear bombs. Before this hour ‘X’ when they are actually delivered it is necessary to destroy all military and civil airfields on Ukrainian territory, so that such planes should never land on Ukrainian airfields of any profile at all.

In this context, I would like to recall the recent statement made by the Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, Nikolai Oleshchuk, who recognized the fact that the said fighter-bombers have already landed on Ukrainian territory. It is probably no coincidence that U.S. presidential nominee Robert Kennedy, Jr. said that the White House-authorized deliveries of F-16s to Ukraine will not change the situation in Kiev’s favor and will not save it from collapse, but such destabilizing aircraft will pose a threat not only to Ukraine itself, but to the entire humanity. Although he did not explain his judgment, it is obvious: American ‘dual-capable’ aircraft will come into combat contact with Russian combat aircraft, which have higher tactical and technical and strike characteristics than American ones. And then what happens if they fight with each other in the sky?

Q: How much of Wagner PMC urban combat experience can be useful in the assault on Kobel?

A: My private opinion: I am against storming cities ‘head-on’, fighting for every house or alley. It would require a lot of manpower reserves. For this purpose, there are other means: complete encirclement of strategically important settlements of the enemy with a subsequent ultimatum on their surrender. No offense to the fighters of the Wagner PMC will be said, but I would still like to note that they took Artemovsk [Bakhmut in Ukrainian] completely in no one week and no one month. Yes, it is true: It took almost ten months to capture it.

Q: Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said at a Moscow Security Conference [held last week] that the possibility of a direct clash with NATO in the future seems very obvious. According to him, intensive military preparations are underway in the West, huge sums of money are being invested in it, and no one in the capitalist world will freeze their assets in weapons and a bloated army for nothing. What is the Belarusian defense minister concern?

A: This is a correct judgment made by the Belarusian Minister of Defense. He also noted that the creation of a three-thousand-strong group of NATO troops of high combat readiness on the Eastern flank of the Alliance is declared for a reason; it will obviously be intended not for defense, but for a surprise attack and to cover the strategic deployment of the main strike forces of this Western military-political bloc.

Numerous facts of military preparations of NATO member states near the borders of Russia and Belarus from the distant past, the current present and its military-strategic plans projected into the future tell us the following: we need to keep our powder dry, to be extremely vigilant and not to let ourselves be fooled by empty promises of the military-political leadership of the Alliance and the criminal Kiev’s regime.

In this context, we cannot discount the aggressive, offensive military-strategic policies of the USA and NATO oriented against Russia and China, as well as against our allies and friends – namely the U.S. national security and defense strategies, nuclear, missile defense and space strategies, as well as cyber doctrines. I came to this conclusion by analyzing six key strategies approved separately by the Trump and Biden administrations. A monograph on this topic is due to be released later this year.

Q: Does NATO have the resources to go to war with Russia and Belarus right now?

A: Yes, it does. To be more precise: partially.

But the practice of direct participation of NATO Armed Forces on the side of Ukraine in its aggression against Russia over the past year and a half shows that the Alliance HQ located in the Evere District of the Belgian capital has already begun to realize that the collective West will never be able to defeat Russia, neither with conventional nor with nuclear weapons. Especially when we have the most advanced and perspective types of non-nuclear and nuclear weapons, which the aggressive community of the Western states does not have. And we should not forget the essential fact that Russia has already practically modernized its entire traditional strategic nuclear triad, while the United States has only just begun such a long process. And the U.S. military-industrial complex has not created operational hypersonic systems yet. But we already have them.

In this regard, I would recommend that the American and Ukrainian military and political leadership memorize the Russian proverb: "Measure [fabric] seven times, cut it once". In the current situation it can be interpreted as follows: before making any strategic military-political decisions with regard to Russia and Belarus, think hard – bearing in mind: what can it lead to, first of all, to yourselves and to your belligerent satellites.

 

 

Report # 278. Prigozhin’s aircraft crash: all investigations are underway

25 August 2023

1. Presidential condolences to the relatives of all victims expressed

Talking with Acting Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) Denis Pushilin on August 24, 2023 in the Kremlin after the private business jet that carried Evgeny Prigozhin and his colleagues from Moscow and St. Petersburg President Vladimir Putin expressed his “sincere condolences to the families of all the victims”.

The President called the crash as “a tragedy when it happens”. He added that he knew Prigozhin for a long time, since the early 1990s, and Prigozhin was a man of a difficult fate and made some serious mistakes in his life, “but he also achieved the necessary results for himself and also for the greater good when I asked him, as it happened over the past months”.


In Putin’s words, the Wagner PMC people made “a meaningful contribution” to Russia’s common cause to fight the neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine. “We remember this, we know this, and will never forget”, the President stressed.


Prigozhin was “a talented man”, he added, “a gifted business leader” who worked in and outside Russia, including in Africa, where he was quite effective dealing with oil, gas, precious metals and gemstones there.

Putin said that the head of the Investigative Committee reported him on August 24.  “A preliminary investigation into this incident has been launched, and it will run its full course. There must be no doubt about that. Let us wait a little and see what the investigators tell us. A technical expertise and genetic tests are currently underway. This will take some time”, the President concluded.

On August 25 Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov promised to inform the general public about the results of the investigation.

2. The US cluster munitions kill many civilians in Donbass

At the meeting Denis Pushilin informed the President that the situation with shelling over the past three summer months has worsened for civilians, because the enemy is now using cluster munitions. He called such munitions especially dangerous for civilians because they are quite wide reaching and cause uncontrolled damage, and because people are not quite sure how to respond to them. Moreover, not all cluster munitions detonate immediately and just lie around causing additional deaths and casualties amongst civilians. In the recent shelling incidents an ambulance station and a blood transfusion center were damaged.


According to Pushilin’s data, the number of shelling incidents increased by 23 percent during the 2023 summer months compared to the preceding three-month period, with cluster munitions used in 10 percent of these strikes.


Acting Head of the DPR outlined that “Still, the men on the frontlines remain in high spirits and are ready to carry on fighting. They all understand very well and can see what is going on. They understand their mission, which consists of pushing the adversary as far back as possible. This is the only way to stop shells from reaching our cities and districts”.

Denis Pushilin blamed the USA for sending deadly weapons to Kiev against civilians. “You have heard, he told the President, that the Americans are opposing the use of cluster munitions, but now they say that it is all right with them”.

Though Moscow twice has warned the AFU not to use such munitions, it has not used them in its turn against military and civilians in Ukraine.

From other developments: last Friday night, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) attempted to attack the territory of Crimea with 42 airplane-type drones. Nine drones were destroyed by air defense forces over Crimea, another 33 UAVs were suppressed by means of electronic warfare and crashed without reaching their target.

Recently Kiev has intensified its drones employment against Russia in a bid to make a revenge for total disaster of its ‘offensive’ or ‘counter-offensive’ that resulted in huge losses of manpower and heavy military equipment on the battlefield.

3. Ukrainian execution squadrons shoot the AFU soldiers

Soldiers from the 123rd Territorial Defense Brigade (TDB) of the AFU have shot 23 their fellow soldiers for attempted desertion, after which they added the dead to the lists of missing persons (MIA), a Russian security official told RIA Novosti on  August 25, citing a source in the AFU.

"From sources in the AFU we received data about the shooting of 23 servicemen of the 123rd Brigade of the AFU’s TDB in Kherson on August 11 [this year], who decided to desert and abandon their positions," the source said.

After the shooting, the dead were added to the lists of MIA in order to cover up the traces of the crime. According to the source, Russian servicemen managed to find out the personal details of ten persons of them.


There have been many cases in the AFU like this. Sometimes Ukrainian GIs kill their commanding offices for cruelty, inhuman behavior and issuing irrational orders, lack of munition, proper food and professional training.


There have been cases when Ukrainian mothers of the AFU soldiers who became POW begged the Russian Armed Forces not to release them and not to send them back home out of fear that they again will be send to the front line from where they – highly likely – would not return to Ukraine alive. Huge Ukrainian graveyards are even seen by reconnaissance satellites launched by many space-faring nations.

More and more Ukrainians are now denouncing the unjustifiable aggression Kiev started against Donbass and Russia with the help of NATO that has brought too many ‘minuses’ rather ‘pluses’.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Report # 28. Ukraine still blocks refugees’ save routs leading to Russia

 

March 26th, 2022

1. Humanitarian issues

The Russian Federation, guided by the principles of international humanitarian law, continues to provide comprehensive assistance to the population in the controlled areas of Ukraine and the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics.

To this end, humanitarian corridors continue to open daily since 10:00AM in the directions of Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov and Mariupol, one to Russia and one more through Kiev-controlled territories towards Ukraine's western borders. A significant part of the population forcibly held by radicals in Ukrainian cities is still looking for any opportunities to evacuate to Russia, as evidenced by numerous appeals of citizens through various channels to the official structures of the Russian Federation. Over the past day, another 2,329 such appeals have been received, and in total there are already 2,724,332 of them in the database from 2,095 settlements in Ukraine.

Of the routes proposed by Russia, the Ukrainian authorities have agreed on only three, but not a single humanitarian corridor to the Russian Federation has again been confirmed by official Kiev, which once again proves the indifference of the current government to its own people. At the same time, as of this day, the Ukrainian side announced 12 additional corridors in the directions of Kiev, Zhytomyr, Zaporozhye and Donetsk, of which none in the direction of the Russian Federation.

The Russian Armed Forces strictly observe the ceasefire on all routes, including those declared by the Ukrainian side.

At the same time, the objective control data confirmed once again that the Ukrainian side continues to cynically use the ceasefire to regroup its units to more advantageous positions. In addition, it still continues to prevent civilians from leaving populated areas in every possible way.

For example, in Chernigov, by order of the head of the city and the head of the Ukrainian regional military administration, in order to prevent any attempts by the local population to leave the city, a road bridge across the Desna river on the Kiev direction was blown up.

In the same city, an initiative group of local residents in connection with the serious humanitarian situation (of the remaining 120 thousand people, more than half are sick, medical care is not available to them, medical facilities are filled with fighters of the AFU and territorial defenсe) appealed to the administration with a request to go to the safe areas. As a result, the activists were detained by SSU officers, and several people were subsequently shot.

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles created by Kiev, over the past day, without the participation of official authorities, 17,105 people were evacuated to Russia from dangerous areas of Ukraine, Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, 4,095 of them children, and in total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 401,216 people have already been evacuated, of which 84,865 - children.

47,551 units of personal vehicles crossed the state border of the Russian Federation, of which 1,881 units per day.

On March 24th, 2022, 4,453 people were evacuated from Mariupol, also without any participation of the Ukrainian side, a total of 86,718 people have already been rescued from the lawlessness organized by neo-Nazis.

Despite the humanitarian corridors opening daily, Ukrainian nationalists continue to hold hostage as a "human shield" more than 4.5 million civilians in Kiev, Kharkov, Chernigov, Sumy, Mariupol and more than two dozen other large settlements, as well as 6,837 citizens from 26 foreign countries who, by the will of fate, found themselves on the territories of Ukraine.

In addition, 67 foreign vessels from 15 countries continue to be blocked in Ukrainian ports. The high mine danger created by official Kiev in the internal waters of Ukraine and the territorial sea (minefields are installed with gross violations of the preparation regulations and without drawing up appropriate maps), as well as the threat of shelling by the AFU of vessels following the recommended routes, do not allow them to safely leave the ports of Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa, Yuzhny and go out into the open the sea.

At the same time there is no danger to the freedom of civil navigation on the part of the Russian Federation.

To maintain free exit of foreign vessels from Ukrainian ports to the open sea, the Russian Federation is creating a humanitarian sea corridor, which is a safe lane for ships from the collection area located 20 miles south-east of the port of Ilyichevsk. The length of the humanitarian corridor is 80 nautical miles in a south-westerly direction; the width of the traffic lane is 3 miles. The duration of the corridor is daily from 08:00 to 19:00 (Moscow time), starting from March 25th, 2022. Russia calls on the entire international community, including the International Maritime Organization, to influence the Ukrainian side and take effective measures aimed at unblocking and ensuring the safety of the exit of foreign vessels from the ports of Ukraine.

In the regions of the Russian Federation, more than 9.5 thousand temporary accommodation facilities continue to function regularly, where individual work is carried out with the arrived refugees and assistance is provided in solving a variety of issues. There are a sufficient number of buses at the checkpoints to transport people to their chosen places of residence or to temporary accommodation points where medical care and hot meals are organized.

The federal executive authorities, together with the subjects of Russia, various public organizations and patriotic movements, continue to accumulate humanitarian aid.

More than 22 thousand tons of food, medicines and basic necessities have already been prepared at the collection points.

Since March 2nd the Russian Federation has already delivered 4,933 tons of humanitarian cargo to Ukraine and carried out 597 humanitarian actions, including 36 over the past day in the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Kherson and Nikolayev regions, during which 379 tons of food, clothing, hygiene products and medicines were transferred to civilians.

On March 24, 20 humanitarian actions are being held in the Kiev, Sumy, Chernigov and Kherson regions, during which 110 tons of basic necessities and food packages, including baby food and vital medicines, are being transferred to the population.

2. Russian MoD and the ICRC held talks

On March 24th, consultations were held between the Deputy Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation, Colonel-General Alexander Fomin, and the President of the International Committee of the Red Cross, Peter Maurer, who was on a visit to Moscow. The Russian MoD and the ICRC exchanged information on the evacuation of civilians and foreign citizens from the dangerous zones of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics to the territory of the Russian Federation, as well as in the western direction to the territory of Ukraine. In addition, during the meeting, issues of providing humanitarian assistance to victims and other aspects of a humanitarian nature were discussed.

The Russian Defence Ministry and the International Committee of the Red Cross noted the constructive nature of cooperation in the humanitarian field. At the same time, special attention was paid to compliance with the norms of international humanitarian law, including the Geneva Conventions of 1949.

3.  Developments in the battlefield

A group of troops of the Russian Armed Forces is fighting for the capture of the settlements of Novomikhailovka and Novobakhmutovka, inflicting fire damage to the enemy in strong points and on its reserves.

The Russian Armed Forces have launched a precision-guided missile strike on Ukrainian military infrastructure. The crew of a small missile ship of the Black Sea Fleet has launched four Kalibr cruise missiles at military facilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Black Sea. As a result of an accurate hit, the high-precision weaponry destroyed weapons and military equipment depot on the territory of Zhitomir Region.

The crews of the high-precision Iskander operational-tactical missile complex destroyed the training base of foreign mercenaries with a pin-point strike.

Also, a high-precision Onyx cruise missile destroyed a fuel base in the area of Nikolaev, from which fuel was supplied to the AFU grouping in the southern part of Ukraine.

During the day, 117 military facilities of Ukraine were hit by operational-tactical and army aviation.

Among them: six command posts, three multiple rocket launchers, one S-300 anti-aircraft missile system, nine depots with weapons and ammunition, two with fuel and lubricants, as well as 92 strongholds of the AFU, nationalist battalions and the area of concentration of military equipment.

Three Ukrainian aircraft (two Su-25 and one Su-24), as well as six unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down by Russian AAD in the air over the village of Vishnevoye. In addition, one tactical missile of the Tochka-U complex was destroyed near the village of Vasilevka.

Russia can use two types of this missile – either cruise missile or ballistic missile. The Iskander tactical complex was tasked with fire suppression of the enemy. A ballistic missile hit a building housing a foreign legion and a training base. As a high-explosive penetrating warhead was used, the building, 60 metres long, was completely destroyed and the enemy eliminated. This missile is basically impossible to intercept

The Iskander missile complex is designed for covert preparation and effective missile strikes against critical targets behind enemy lines. High firing accuracy at a considerable range, short launch-readiness time, and high missile defence penetration efficiency allow the system to promptly engage any standard target with a single self-propelled launcher, or with a salvo of two missiles.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation (February 24th), 267 unmanned aerial vehicles, 207 anti-aircraft missile systems, 1,618 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 166 multiple rocket launchers, 662 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 1,453 special military vehicles have been destroyed.

4. A request for advanced high-precision long-range weapons

The Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation, General of the Army Sergei Shoigu, on March 26th, held a working meeting on the implementation of the State Defence Order program and the fulfillment of social obligations to the servicemen of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

He noted that despite the anti-Russian sanctions, today the level of concluding government contracts is 85 percent, and in April Russia will complete this work in full. "The priorities are high-precision long-range weapons, aviation equipment, as well as maintaining the combat readiness of strategic nuclear forces," he said. In his words, this year it is necessary to maintain the set pace of delivery of advanced weapons to the troops, including robotic complexes, information support and electronic warfare, as well as combat service support.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 280. New referenda in five new territories are useless

September 3, 2023

1. New referenda in new five territories. Are they expedient?

In connection of donating their individual notions to multi-dimensional ‘peace plans’ on Ukraine many foreign politicians and experts are proposing to arrange new referenda in five new territories that have joined the Russian Federation in 2014 (Crimea) and in 2022 (the DPR and the LPR in Donbass, and Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions). Such proposals are included into ‘peace plans’ with the aim to end the Ukrainian-NATO aggression against these lands that have become Russian territory due to previous referenda.

In Russia the ‘referenda idea’ was articulated by extra-liberal and pro-Western “Yabloko Party” represented in the Russian State Duma some time ago.

The idea to run such new referenda is unacceptable for two major reasons:


First, these referenda on joining Russia or Ukraine have been already arranged in all these territories under international monitoring that ended with final results:

the majority of participants have expressed their desire to stay with Russia

for indefinite period of time.


Second, is it logical to conduct another round of referenda in the territories where more than 20,000 civilians have been already killed by Ukrainian aggressors since 2014, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already used depleted uranium, cluster and white phosphorus munitions, and totally 2 million of 155-mm calbre shells against civilians and social infrastructure facilities like kindergartens, schools, universities, hospitals etc?

The US M777, German PzH 2000, Polish Crab and French CAESAR were using 155-mm shells and rockets


During one year since the Special Military Operation or SMO was launched in February 2022, the AFU fired against the LPR 2889 combined strikes, including 696 strikes delivered by HIMARS MRLS.


What will be a logical prediction of the returns of such referenda if the proponents of the new ‘vox populi’ counting will look through the table of lethal weapons generously delivered by the USA, the UK, Poland, Germany and many other NATO member stares?

If any unbiassed observer examines any official Pentagon Facts Sheets describing the U.S. arms deliveries to Ukraine, any person will highly likely respond in such a way: participants in these referenda will again vote for staying and living in Russia rather than in Ukraine.

Namely it is Ukraine who began a brutal aggression against Ukrainians and Russians, banned Russian language and the Orthodox Church in Ukraine, engaged many times in nuclear blackmail attempts arranged against the Zaporozhye NPP, etc.


Who would like to live in a neo-Nazi Ukrainian state who shells these five territories

by HIMARS or other artillery pieces or drones – using approximately 300-800 missiles and shells and missiles PER EACH DAY and NIGHT against 10-15 populated areas

 in these five territories where there are no Russian Armed Forces or military facilities? On September 3, 2023 Ukraine has shelled Donbass 86 times and used against it 273 shells and missiles equipped with cluster munitions.

Only “Azov” neo-Nazi faction and alike will vote for living in such irrelevant state like Ukraine.


[Note: there are the links to the July and August 2023 Fact Sheet on the U.S. arms deliveries to Ukraine: https://media.defense.gov/2023/Jul/25/2003267256/-1/-1/0/UKRAINE-FACT-SHEET.PDF and https://media.defense.gov/2023/Aug/29/2003290634/-1/-1/1/20230829_UKRAINE_FACT_SHEET.PDF  ]

2. Another attempt to destroy the Crimean Bridge by the AFU

Russian forces destroyed a sea drone in the Black Sea that Kiev had launched in an attempt to strike the Crimean Bridge, the Russian Defense Ministry told reporters.

"At 11:15 p.m. Moscow time on September 1, the Kiev regime attempted a terrorist strike on the Crimean Bridge with a semi-submersible uncrewed surface vessel. The Ukrainian Naval drone was timely detected and destroyed in the waters of the Black Sea," the ministry noted.

The Russian MoD said on September 1, 2023 that the Black Sea Fleet had established permanent control of the situation in the Black Sea using all types of reconnaissance. The ministry announced that this had allowed the Naval Air Force on August 29-30, 2023 to foil attempts staged by a Ukrainian special operations unit to land on the Crimean coast and carry out terrorist attacks.

The Crimean Bridge has not been used and is not used to deliver arms and ammunition for the SMO.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 281. A new grain deal & a failed counter-offensive

September 5, 2023

1. Russian-Turkish talks: major agreements

On September 4, 2023 Russian and Turkish Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan held talks in Sochi that covered a number of key issues related to their relationships.

Dealing with ‘the grain deal’ also known as ‘the Black Sea Grain Initiative’, President Putin explained that Moscow cancelled the deal because the Western countries: 1) have blocked shipment to global markets, especially to many countries in need Russian agricultural products and chemical fertiliser; 2) failed to removing barriers to logistics and chartering ships, and 3) refused to implement banking services and insurance for this shipping.

Ukraine 1) exploded Russian ammonia gas pipeline crossing Ukrainian territory and 2) used humanitarian sea corridors from three Ukrainian ports specified by the deal leading to the Black Sea with the aim to conduct terrorist attacks against Russia. Such humanitarian sea corridors have been used to make attempts to attack TurkStream and Blue Stream through which gas is supplied to Turkey from Russia.


Since July 2022 till July 2023 Russia extended the timeframe of the deal twice – unfortunately, with no positive results from the Western countries and Ukraine and their lack of desire to implement the deal. Not a single obligation to Russia was fulfilled. Then, for the third time, Russia asked to extend its participation in the deal with a promise to fulfil the deal commitments. And, as often happens with the Western states, they let Russian side down this time again: they did nothing they promised.


Putin noted: “The West, to put it mildly, deceived us about the humanitarian goals of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, that is, providing assistance to developing countries. Because of the 32.8 million tonnes of cargo exported from Ukraine, over 70 percent – I want to emphasize this again – went to the wealthy countries, primarily to the EU, whereas the share of countries in real need of food aid accounted for only 3 percent, that is, less than one million tonnes”.

He reaffirmed Russian principled position that it would be willing to consider the possibility of resuming the grain deal – he said this once again to President Erdogan during the talks – and would do it immediately, as soon as all the agreements set out in that deal on lifting the restrictions on the export of Russian agricultural products are fully implemented.


Despite the obstacles, Putin stressed, Russia will continue to export food and fertiliser, to contribute to price stabilization and to improve the situation in global agricultural industry.


To this end, Moscow has proposed to supply one million tonnes of grain from Russia at a preferential price for processing in Turkey and then transporting it without any cost to the neediest countries. In this regard, Russia is also counting on assistance from the State of Qatar which, for humanitarian reasons, is willing to support the countries that are most in need. Russia is approaching to finalizing agreements with six African countries on food supplies free of charge and even offer free shipping. In his turn President Erdogan promised to have one million tonnes of grain processed by Turkish milling industry, and then send this flour to the poorest African countries.

Putin announced that Russia is expecting to have a good harvest this year. Last year it reached the level of about 158 million tonnes, and this year it will be about 130. So, the export capacity will also remain somewhere at the level of 60 million tonnes.

Russian leader also made some remarks on ‘peace talks’ between Moscow and Kiev: ”We are aware that agreements were reached and draft documents were coordinated between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations with President Erdogan's mediation. However, Ukraine subsequently tossed them away and no one is returning to them”. “As for the mediation efforts, he continued, we have never turned them down. We are aware of the mediation proposals and initiatives coming from the People's Republic of China and African countries. Of course, we are also grateful to President Erdogan for his efforts in this regard”.

In response to a mass media question dealt with Ukrainian “stalling counteroffensive”, Putin replied: “It is not stalling; it is a failed counter-offensive. At least, as of today, it looks exactly like that. Let's see how things unfold. I hope it will continue like this. I want to emphasize that Russia has never turned down talks, and we will not turn them down now, either. President Erdogan raised these questions during our meeting today. I confirm this to him”.

2. Ukraine fails to achieve ‘counter-offensive’ goals – Shoigu

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported on the progress of the Special Military Operation and shared his opinion on so-called Ukrainian ‘counter-offensive’. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have failed to achieve any of their goals in three months of ‘counter-offensive’, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said publicly on September 5.

"The Kiev regime, despite their huge losses, has been trying to conduct the so-called counter-offensive for the third month already. The armed forces of Ukraine did not achieve their goals on any part of the front line," the minister told senior defense officials in Moscow, adding that the Russian troops are active "along the entire line of contact."

Shoigu added that Kiev is "desperately trying to demonstrate" at least some military success to the West to keep receiving their military and economic support.


He updated the recent results of the ‘counter-offensive’: since June 4th, 2023 Ukrainian troops have lost more than 66,000 military and 7,600 weapons when they launched of the poorly planned and disorganized counter-offensive.


"The Russian armed forces continue to destroy the military infrastructure of Ukraine with precision strikes. Over the past month alone, 34 command posts of the Ukrainian armed forces ... were hit," Shoigu added.

3. Russian MFA: Producing arms for Ukraine is involvement in the aggression

The Russian Embassies located in Germany and Sweden delivered a demarche over plans by the two countries’ companies to produce weapons for Ukraine.

"We noted announcements by a number of European weapons manufacturers, in particular plans by Germany’s Rheinmetall and a Swedish subsidiary of Britain’s BAE Systems to set up production of military hardware for Ukraine’s Armed Forces as well as operations for repair and maintenance work. We view such intentions as yet further proof of Western defense industries and policymakers being directly involved in the military conflict and supporting the criminal Kiev regime," Russian MFA said.

It was also noted that these are shameless intentions by Western defense industries to profit from the developments would only escalate things further in Ukraine.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Report # 282. Moscow responded to the U.S. DU ammo deliveries

 

September 8, 2023

1. Moscow’s reaction to Pentagon’s sending of the DU ammo to Kiev

The Pentagon’s delivery of DU projectiles to Ukraine will have dire consequences for future generations, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has said. His comments came after Washington announced the delivery of an unspecified number of 120mm DU rounds to Ukraine as part of a new military aid package.

The statement has been made as a response to the Pentagon announcement articulated on September 6 that USA would provide Ukraine with another package of military assistance worth $175 mln. "This package includes: additional air defense equipment; artillery munitions; anti-tank weapons, including depleted uranium rounds for previously committed Abrams tanks," the U.S. DoD declared.


Washington will have to answer for the consequences of using such munitions, Dmitry Peskov warned.


“This is very bad news,” Peskov explained during a press conference on September 7, noting that the use of such munitions in Yugoslavia in the past has led to “galloping” increases in the number of people suffering from cancer and other diseases, which has been confirmed by international organizations. “The consequences become noticeable in subsequent generations,” the spokesperson stated, adding that “the same situation will inevitably occur in Ukrainian territories where [DU munitions] will be used.”

Peskov insisted that all of the responsibility would lie entirely with US leaders who made the decision to supply Kiev’s forces with such munitions.

The deliveries of DU rounds to Ukraine have also been met with condemnation from the United Nations, which has repeatedly objected to the use of such munitions anywhere in the world, but this warning has had no effect on the deliveries.

Prior to announcing the delivery of the controversial rounds on September 6, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh claimed that these rounds were “standard use” in American tanks. That is correct.

Earlier this year, the UK also sent Kiev a shipment of DU shells to be used with its Challenger 2 tanks, sparking outrage in Moscow. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at the time that such deliveries would be “taking this escalation to a new and very serious stage.” Russia’s Embassy in London also accused the West of being willing to turn Ukraine into “not only an anti-Russian military shooting range, but also a radioactive landfill.”


Meanwhile, both Washington and London have repeatedly rejected all concerns about the potential consequences of using these toxic rounds and have dismissed reports stating that the use of such munitions has led to increase in cancer and birth defects in places like Iraq and Serbia.


On September 7 the Russian Embassy to the USA has slammed Washington’s decision to supply depleted uranium or DU rounds to Ukraine as ‘inhumane’

In its statement the Russian Embassy in Washington outlined the following: "The US Administration's decision to send depleted uranium rounds to Kiev is a clear sign of inhumanity. Obviously, Washington, obsessed with the idea of inflicting a ‘strategic defeat’ on Russia, is ready to fight not only to the last Ukrainian but to put a cross on the future generations," the Embassy wrote on its Telegram channel.


"The US is deliberately transferring weapons with indiscriminate effects. It is fully aware of the consequences: explosions of such munitions result in the formation of a moving radioactive cloud. “


Small particles of uranium settle in the respiratory tract, lungs, esophagus, accumulate in kidneys and liver, cause cancer and lead to the inhibition of the whole organism’s functions. It’s right enough to take a look at the "uranium footprint" of the Americans in Iraq and the Balkans, where thousands of civilians suffered from oncology."

Russian diplomatic Mission also underscored: "By supplying the Ukrainian authorities with these shells, the United States is engaging in self-deception, refusing to accept the failure of the so-called counter-offensive of the Ukrainian armed forces. The course of the Special Military Operation will not change: the Russian Army will continue to methodically grind the weaponry sent to the Zelensky regime," it stressed. "The US Administration, in turn, reveals its true colors: it is deeply indifferent to both the present of Ukraine and the future of the republic and its European neighbors."

The Embassy added that the Department of Defense announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs. This announcement is the Biden Administration's 46th tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.

2. View of US Republican presidential candidate

US Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy believes that the incumbent government’s claims that all financial and military aid to Ukraine is being carefully tracked are false. "Of course, the mainstream media and the establishment will say that any money the U.S. sends to support Ukraine is strictly 'itemized and audited,'" the politician wrote on X, a social network formerly known as Twitter. "This is a joke funnier than any Zelensky could have written in his prior career as a comedian."


"Don’t forget that in June, the Pentagon itself discovered an ‘accounting error’ that artificially created an extra $6.2 billion for Ukraine without Congressional approval. The notion that all money and military equipment being sent to Ukraine is being carefully tracked is deeply dishonest," Ramaswamy added.


Members of the Republican Party have repeatedly requested the administration of US President Joe Biden to audit funds allocated for supporting the Kiev government. Republican US House of Representatives member Lauren Boebert said in August US parliamentarians should not approve the White House’s request for additional aid to Ukraine and criticized the lack of audit during the process.

3. UK defense chief confirmed Challenger 2 tank destroyed in Ukraine

"I can confirm, that is correct. It may be the first loss as far as we are aware. We gifted 14 of these Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine. We accept that in the war zone, there can be material losses," Grant Shapps, the UK newly appointed Defence Secretary, said. That main battle tank has been destroyed in Ukraine in the first such incident in the model’s nearly 30 years of being in service.

Earlier, The Guardian reported that only one such tank, which entered combat in 1994, was hit in 2003 in Iraq, but that tank was destroyed in a friendly fire incident, not an enemy attack. Meanwhile, the report points out that such statistics can be explained by the small number of tanks produced and their infrequent deployment.

Overall, London shipped 14 Challenger 2 tanks to Kiev this year. The UK itself has 213 tanks of this type. Meanwhile, according to the information presented in the British Parliament in March, only 157 vehicles are combat-ready. Only one country, not counting the UK and Ukraine, uses Challenger 2 tanks — Oman.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the Ukrainian army has been making futile offensive attempts since June 4. According to the ministry, in three months, Ukrainian forces have lost over 66,000 personnel and 7,600 vehicles, achieving no success in any direction. On September 4, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed.


Russian Armed Forces have seven highly efficient types of anti-tank weapons that can hit enemies main battle tanks and armored vehicles by a single shot.

 


4. Local elections in four new territories began

For the first time, parliamentary elections will be held in the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (the DPR and the LPR), as well as in the Regions of Kherson and Zaporozhye that joined Russia in October 2022. In all the four regions, parliaments will be elected exclusively on party lists. The DPR People's Council has 90 members, while the LPR has 50. Forty members will be elected to the Zaporozhye legislative Assembly and 36 others to the Kherson Regional Duma.

The five Russian parliamentary parties – United Russia, Liberal-Democratic, the Communist Party, A Just Russia and The New Peoples’ Party – will run in the DPR and the LPR elections. The New Peoples’ Party decided not to nominate its candidates in the Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions.

Within 45 days after being formed, the legislatures are to choose heads of their respective Regions. The United Russia party has already nominated to the incumbent regional heads’ positions who currently have the acting status a.i.

More than 100 similar polling stations were also set up in these regions where Russian servicemen and reconstruction personnel have an opportunity to vote.

The vote will be monitored by 87 observers from various political parties and the LPR Public Chamber.

Observers from seven foreign countries have already visited many polling stations in these territories.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Report # 283. Moscow’s stance on the NPT issues in detail

 

September 9, 2023

On September 7, 2023 Sergey Ryabkov, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, expressed updated Moscow’s stance dealing with the NPT at the Regional seminar "Strengthening the nuclear non-proliferation regime" held in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, the same day. Here are some major points of his remarks that might be interesting because they have been delivered by a person who at the Russian MFA monitors arms control issues and inter alia the relationships between Russia and the USA.

He said that Russia has always proceeded from the fact that the effectiveness of the nuclear non-proliferation regime, which is based on the NPT, arrives from maintaining a balance between the three pillars of this Treaty: cooperation in the field of peaceful uses of atomic energy, nuclear non-proliferation and negotiations on nuclear disarmament.

Ryabkov noted that the nature of the discussion is still determined by high expectations and demands by some of the State Parties and the general radicalization of positions. Often there is just a systematic promotion of national or group guidelines, delegations neither listen to each other nor try to reach compromise. There are also attempts to bring into the review process external issues, which provokes the emergence of new dividing lines. This was most evident during the debates on strengthening the review process of the Treaty. Another stumbling block is the deliberate politicization of discussions. Some States just initially lack a focus on finding a mutually acceptable solution to problems.

A high-ranking diplomat expressed concern that in recent decades a certain group of countries, or to be precise, the States which are the NATO members and their partners, have been trying to usurp the right to interpret the issue of compliance by other State Parties with their obligations under the NPT. They also have been trying to use the provisions of the Treaty to put pressure on objectionable countries and justify the interference in their internal affairs.


In his words, ensuring the sustainability of the NPT is one of the priorities for maintaining stability on a global scale.


Among negative points, he highlighted the fact that many State Parties, when considering the nuclear disarmament issues, unreasonably evade taking into account political and strategic realities. This is happening contrary to the logic of the comprehensive approach embodied in the NPT and the consensus decisions of the review conferences. At the same time, unrealistic demands are put forward, simply driving the situation into a deadlock. Meanwhile, it is clear that progress towards nuclear disarmament and nuclear arms control cannot be carried out in isolation from the international security situation as well as the military and strategic context. These are interrelated processes and moving forward on the mentioned tracks is impossible without the creation of favorable conditions that would ensure the maintenance of peace and stability during the reduction of nuclear weapons, as well as without respecting the principle of undiminished security for all.


Ryabkov specifically mentioned that the military and political situation in the world continues to rapidly degrade.


The accumulated conflict potential between the nuclear powers that had not been settled timely has already led to an acute crisis in the Euro-Atlantic region and threatens to develop into a military confrontation in the Asia-Pacific region. Having violated the principle of equal and indivisible security, the NATO alliance relied on harmful expansion and assertive military squatting of territories in the zone of Russia's vital interests. The West used the responsive actions we were compelled to make to protect our external security as a pretext for switching to an open forceful pressure on Russia, dangerously balancing on the verge of a direct armed conflict of nuclear powers. At the same time, the current crisis is far from being resolved and fraught with the most serious risks of further escalation.


The Deputy Minister outlined that the situation is characterized by the ongoing erosion of the existing international security architecture, including its important pillars – arms control agreements.


In the nuclear missile sphere, in particular, potential negative scenarios are deeply alarming after the United States withdrew from the INF Treaty and actively preparing to deploy previously banned missile systems. The situation that led to the suspension of the New START due to the destructive policy of the United States and its significant violation of this agreement cannot but cause concern.

Nuclear disarmament in the NPT is incorporated in the context of general and complete disarmament, but now we are witnessing an increase in spending on conventional weapons in most States. The USA accounts for 40% of all military spending in the world and if we add up the budgets of the armies of NATO countries and their closest allies, we get about two-thirds of global military spending.


And this cannot be ignored when talking about the renunciation of nuclear weapons, Ryabkov underscored.


Bearing that in mind, there has been no reduction in the nuclear potential of NATO. On the contrary, the so-called non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNW) of the United States are located on the territory of the alliance States, and vital Russian facilities are within their reach. Thus, such weapons have all the properties of strategic nuclear forces. According to recent reports, the possibilities for stationing of US NSNW in Europe are expanding. Moreover, another NATO member – the UK – decided to increase its nuclear arsenal by almost a third.

Under such circumstances, the validity of our consistently defended thesis about the counterproductiveness of those approaches to nuclear disarmament that imply an immediate and complete ban on nuclear weapons or the establishment of both harsh and artificial deadlines for reaching "nuclear zero" becomes very obvious.

He reiterated that Russia remains unfailingly committed to finding ways to move towards a world free of the nuclear threat, in full compliance with Article VI of the NPT in its entirety. For decades, our country has been making a significant practical contribution to the reduction of nuclear weapons. We are convinced that further progress along this path can be achieved only on the basis of a phased and consensus approach, with consistent work to improve the military and political climate and respecting the interests of all States.

The Deputy Foreign Minister stated that joint efforts are needed to ensure the coexistence of major military powers at a reduced level of conflict potential through a coordinated renewal of the international security architecture. Such work should be carried out comprehensively, taking into account all the factors defining the juncture of things in the area and include not only individual steps to reduce strategic risks, but, first of all, effective measures to eliminate the root causes of those contradictions that destabilize the relations among nuclear-weapon States.

He also touched upon the IAEA safeguards system, the fate of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the nuclear issue of the Korean Peninsula, the establishment of the Middle East WMD-free zone and nuclear-weapon-free zones in various regions of the world in general terms as well as the CTBT entry into force and some other issues.

Ryabkov expressed concern that taking into account the tense international situation, the recently started NPT review cycle is unlikely to be simple in terms of developing and agreeing on decisions that will help strengthen the nuclear non-proliferation regime.


He explained that the differences between the State Parties are too strong and the demands of some of them are too high. On the contrary, a calm and mutually respectful expert dialogue is in demand today. Only on its basis it is possible to negotiate and move forward.


He did not threaten to use nuclear weapons by Russia against Ukraine, as many Western experts unjustifiably used to claim many times.

Ryabkov concluded that it is necessary to exclude the politicization of non-proliferation platforms, moderate ambitions and act primarily in the interests of the NPT, and ultimately the entire world community.***

My personal note: it is very strange to read that the U.S. ACA Executive Director Daryl G. Kimball in September 2023 stated that: “Meanwhile, Russia may be on the verge of further nuclear nonproliferation sabotage. Russian officials acknowledge reports that they are considering the self-defeating option of “unratifying” the CTBT to achieve symmetry with Washington in all areas of nuclear policy, but say no official decisions have been made”. [https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2023-09/focus/defending-de-facto-nuclear-test-ban?emci=eb4b5b68-7b46-ee11-a3f1-00224832eb73&emdi=bc787398-7e46-ee11-a3f1-00224832eb73&ceid=9317233]

The truth is that nobody inside the Russian supreme military and political leadership has ever made any statement on a possibility for “unratifying” the CTBT. Russia has ratified it in 2000, and still is committed to it. And who from “Russian officials 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 284. Putin’s remarks at the EEF

September 13, 2023

On September 12, 2023 Vladimir Putin addressed the Plenary Session of the 8th Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) held on Russky Island, Russian Far East. Here are some selected points he mentioned.

Peace process with Ukraine

The Russian President emphasized that in order to start the peace process, the Kiev regime should first lift the legislative ban on negotiations with Russia signed by President Zelensky. Russia can’t unilaterally stop combat operations if it’s repelling an enemy counteroffensive who is not going to cease hostilities at all.

The President said that in order to start a peace process, the Kiev regime should first lift the legislative ban on negotiations. Kiev officials should also "state that they are ready for it. That's it! And then we'll see," Putin announced.

He added that If Kiev destroys both personnel, military equipment and ammunition, it will seek to stop the hostilities, saying it has been talking about such negotiations for a long time now, but it will actually use these talks only to buy time and to replenish their resources and to restore the combat capabilities of their armed forces. “This tactic is possible. In any case, it is one possibility. Again, if there is a sincere desire to achieve something through talks, then let them do so. But why is Blinken saying that?! Let the Ukrainians themselves say that they are rescinding the executive order I mentioned and say so”, Putin suggested. “They have publicly stated that they will not engage in talks. Now let them publicly state that they want to. I do not see anything here that would damage their image”.


He continued: “Regarding the negotiating process: if the United States believes that Ukraine is ready to talk, then let it start by rescinding the Ukrainian President's executive order that prohibits talks.


There is a presidential executive order in which he prohibits himself and everyone else from holding talks. Blinken says they are ready. Okay, let them start by canceling this decree or executive order, or whatever they call it; that would be the first step”.

Updated figures on Ukrainian counter-offensive

Putin mentioned that Kiev has confronted with significant losses from that military drive that started since June 4, 2023. Since the start of the counter-offensive, Ukraine has lost 71,500 troops. Sometimes it seems as if these are not even their own people that they are throwing into the battleground; Putin emotionally remarked. He added that during the Ukrainian counter-offensive, the Amed Forces of Ukraine lost 543 tanks and nearly 18,000 armored vehicles of various classes.

Russian leader also mentioned “The US presidential election process begins in November [2024], and they need to show some results at any cost. They are pushing Ukraine to continue the hostilities, no matter what they say publicly, because they do not care about Ukrainians.


Surprisingly, today's Ukrainian leadership does not seem to care about its own people, either; they just throw them like firewood into a stove, plain and simple”.


Russian relations with the USA

Putin made critical remark upon ex-president Donald Trump who imposed “the greatest number of sanctions on Russia during his presidency”, but at the same time said that everything that is happening to Donald Trump arranged by his opponents “is the political persecution of a political rival”. In Putin’s words, “That is what it is. And it is happening in the eyes of the U.S. public and the whole world. They have exposed their domestic problems…”. The persecution of the 45th US president “reveals the rotten American political system, which should not be able to claim it can teach others about democracy”, Russian leader noted.


He expressed his belief that “… there will be no fundamental change in U.S. foreign policy towards Russia, regardless of who becomes next U.S. president….”, because the current U.S. authorities have conditioned American society to be anti-Russia in nature and spirit; that is how things are. They did this, and it will now be very difficult for them to turn that ship around.


Putin said that this is not good because it fosters hostility. “Despite this, there are many people in America who want to build good and friendly business relationships with us and, moreover, share many of our positions, primarily from the perspective of preserving traditional values. We have many friends and like-minded people there. But, of course, they are being suppressed”.

Western arms deliveries to Kiev

Putin noted: “Not too long ago, the US administration considered the use of cluster munitions to be a war crime, they said this publicly. Now they are sending cluster munitions to the combat area in Ukraine. They announced publicly that it was a crime, but they are doing it anyway. Overall, they don’t care what people think of them; they always do everything only in their own interest. They made some estimates, and since the 155-mm ammunition is running out and it is hard to manufacture it in Europe or in the USA, they are supplying what they have in their arsenals. Well, they have cluster bombs, so there they go. The same is true of depleted uranium. Using this is a crime, they said, not me, they said it is a crime. But they are doing it now anyway. Nothing is working. Of course, it is taking a toll on us. The same is true of depleted uranium. It contaminates the ground. Is that bad? It’s very bad”.

When the moderator intervened that the IAEA head Rafael Mariano Grossi said, “No, nothing like this will happen”, Putin responded: “We know what it is. The land will be contaminated anyway. And what about it? Has it altered the situation? The British have been sending these shells for a long time. Has it changed anything on the battlefield? No. Now they are going to send F-16s. Will it change anything? No. It is just dragging out the conflict”.

The UK involvement in Ukrainian-NATO aggression

Putin continued: “Not long ago, on our territory, the Federal Security Service, during an armed confrontation, eliminated several troops and captured the rest. They turned out to be a sabotage group from Ukrainian special services. Interrogations are underway. What were their objectives? Their mission was to damage one of our nuclear power plants, blow up a power line, high-voltage transmission lines, with the aim of disrupting the power plant’s operation. This was not their first attempt at that. During the interrogation, they said they had been trained by British instructors. Do they understand what they are playing with? Are they trying to provoke us into taking retaliatory actions against Ukrainian nuclear facilities?

Does the British Government and the Prime Minister know what their intelligence agencies are doing in Ukraine, or are they are clueless? I even consider the possibility that British intelligence agencies are acting under the instructions of the Americans, and we know who the ultimate beneficiary is. Do they understand what they are dealing with, or not? I think they are simply underestimating the situation. You know I am aware that once I say this, they will start yelling that this is another threat, nuclear blackmail, and so on. I assure you that what I just said is the full and unadulterated truth. These individuals are in our custody and cooperating. I know the likely reaction: “They will say whatever you want at gunpoint.” No, that is not the case, and the leadership of the British intelligence agencies knows that I am telling the truth. But I am not sure if Britain’s leaders truly understand what is going on.


These things really concern us because they do not know where to stop, and this could lead to serious consequences”, Putin stressed.

 


Breaking news: On September 13, 2023 ten UK-French-made “Storm Shadow” missiles have been fired by Ukraine against Sevastopol. Seven of them have been intercepted by Russian missile defense units. 24 people were reportedly injured and some naval ships have been slightly damaged. 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Report # 285. Elections in the new Russian territories

September 15, 2023

1. Elections in Russia: major results

The elections at various levels held in Russia have been declared valid, Russian Central Election Commission (CEC) head Ella Pamfilova said at a commission meeting summarizing the results of the nation-wide elections held between September 8-10, 2023, and in new territories a little bit earlier because of the brutal and unprovoked Ukrainian-NATO aggression.

Ella Panfilova added that the elections have been successful. 13 political parties and more that 45 million voters took part in them, including participants living in four new territories that have joined Russia in October 2022 – in DPR and LPR (Donbass) and in Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions (South Western Russia). The majority votes have been casted in favor of the “United Russia” party – the leading party in Russia. These elections have been organized for the first time after these four territories have joined Russia.

33 foreign observers from 21 countries voluntarily monitored the elections in all four territories.

Foreign observers noted the observance of all standards of electoral law, their transparency and openness, as well as high voter turnout and free will.

Final protocols from all four Election Commissions set up in two Donbass Republics and two Regions in the South Western Russia have been posted at the Internet in the PDF format.


Though any elections do not usually substitute any referendum, those held in Russia have confirmed that the majority of voters in all these four lands once again voted for their unification with Russia. In this case there is no need to arrange new referenda.


The level of participation in the elections has been high. In DPR the show up of voters was 76,41%, in LPR – 72,53%, in Zaporozhye Region – 68,11% and in Kherson Region – 65,14%. That was higher than in some other parts of Russia.

The September 2023 nation-wide elections have proved that the feelings of patriotism and consolidation have been deeply rooted in the whole of the Russian Federation, especially since the Special Military Operation that has begun with the aim to disrupt unprovoked combined Ukrainian-NATO aggression against Donbass and later against Russia launched with the aim to kill more Russian civilians.

Unfortunately, during the elections arranged in these four territories the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have shelled many cities and villages located there them with heavy weapons, including 155 mm howitzers, HIMARS MLRS fitted with cluster munitions and other heavy weapons systems.


According to official figures announced by the DPR Joint Control and Coordination Commission since September 2 till September 10,2023 the AFU fired at DPR territory alone: 475 times and released 1524 shells, sometimes aiming at polling stations.


During such brutal attacks five persons have been killed and 47 have been injured, including three children.

Polling stations and election commissions have been deliberately attacked by Kiev’s troops. One polling station was destroyed in Zaporozhye Region, two election commissions have been damaged in DPR, with six persons being injured.

2. The IAEA DG Grossi still turns his blind eye

Russia has repeatedly drawn the attention of the international community to the shelling of the Zaporozhye NPP from the Ukrainian side.

Director General or DG of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi has embarked upon stable tactics not to notice such attacks that have reached more than 400 since last spring.

His official statement on the situation in Ukraine related to NPP and released on September 8, 2023 has one more proof of that. It stated that starting from the beginning of September, the IAEA team working at the Zaporozhye [Russian spelling] nuclear power plant or ZNPP as observers “heard around two dozen explosions over three days, followed by several more in the last few days”. 

The statement also clarified that just over a year after the IAEA established a permanent presence at this Europe’s largest NPP to help prevent an accident there during the conflict in Ukraine, the overall situation at the facility remains “highly precarious”. But DG Grossi has done nothing to prevent such accidents. He preferred to express his “deep concern” only, but failed to identify that shelling has been done by the Ukrainian side.

Separately, the ZNPP officials informed the IAEA team that more drone strikes had taken place in the nearby city of Enerhodar – where many plant staff live with their families – in the morning of 7 September, 2023. In addition, the IAEA team was informed that the ZNPP had decided to temporarily reduce the number of personnel on the site to minimum levels over the next few days due to concerns of a higher risk of military activities in the area.

And, as many times before, the IAEA DG turned a blind eye to such drone attacks that have been launched from the positions controlled by Ukraine. Their locations are known to everybody.

Three months after the downstream Kakhovka dam was destroyed – causing the depletion of the huge reservoir that the ZNPP had been relying on to cool its reactors and spent fuel – the plant continues work on expanding access to other sources of water, for example through the drilling of groundwater wells. So far, seven such wells of a planned total of 10-12 have been completed.

Again: dead silence from the IAEA DG, though it is known who has exploded the Kakhovka dam. It is Ukraine.

The IAEA team reported that the ZNPP is performing maintenance on different components and safety systems at the facility, whose six reactors remain shut down, one in hot shutdown and the others in cold shutdown.


So, the question may be asked: For what reasons the culprits for constant attacking the ZNPP and the city of Energodar – namely the AFU units – have not been identified so far by the IAEA DG Grossi?


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 286. Combined Ukrainian - NATO aggression against Donetsk People Republic (DPR, Russia)

September 16, 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Report # 289. Germany’s direct involvement in Ukrainian aggression

September 25, 2023

 

Russian Armed Forces reconnaissance group operating near frontline with Armed Forces of Ukraine or AFU recently have destroyed a Leopard tank handed over to Ukraine with a fully German crew consisting of the soldiers of the German Armed Forces, the commander of the Russian team operating in the Zaporozhye Region with the call sign ‘Legend’ has told mass media.

The group commander said that when the Russian team stopped near [Ukrainian] ‘meat assault’ line and hit Leopard tank with the help of anti-tank missile system, it approached to the burned tank in the hope of taking a POW for interrogation. Russians found out that the tank driver was alive though badly wounded, and the others GIs were killed. While seeing Russian military men the tank driver started shouting 'Nicht schissen!' in German that means ‘Do not shoot!’ in English. The ‘Legend’ emphasized that he knows German very well.


He confessed that the German driver pronounced several times that he is not a mercenary, but a soldier of the German Bundeswehr and the entire crew is from the same German military company. While the German serviceman was receiving first medical aid, he named his Brigade and its location in Ukraine.


The commander added that wounded German serviceman had lost a lot of blood and his wound was very serious. His last words before he died were in the form of very short saying that he loved his child and spouse very much and regretted agreeing to come here to fight. As the commander of the reconnaissance group admitted, he was at first a little surprised to find a German soldier in the destroyed Leopard tank.

The ’Legend’ appealed to Western instructors to think twice before going to participate in the aggression launched by Ukraine and NATO. "Let them think with their heads – about their children, their spouses – before fighting Russians," the reconnaissance group commander clearly stated.

Moscow has already sent a note to NATO countries last spring over the inadmissibility of supplying of military aid to Ukraine. Russia has repeatedly noted that any arms shipments for Kiev would be a legitimate target for the Russian Armed Forces.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently said that the USA and the NATO alliance are directly involved in the aggression – not only by supplying weapons, but also by training Ukrainian military personnel in the USA, the UK, Germany, Italy and other countries.

It was not the first case the Germans have been killed or wounded on the battlefield of Ukraine. But earlier they have been identified as mercenaries dressed in Ukrainian military uniform and equipped with an assault rifles and grenade launchers only. By the way: active US soldiers also operate all HIMARS units sent to Ukraine by the USA.


The recent case involving total German citizens in a Leopard crew was recorded for the first time. It means that the FRG is directly involved in Ukrainian aggression against Russia. Is the Bundestag aware about this? Has Nazi Germany forgotten that it was been ruined during the WWII?


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 29. Hunter Biden, the son of Joseph Biden, financed secret biolabs in Ukraine

March, 27, 2022

The Russian Ministry of Defence continues to analyze official Ukrainian documents revealing the military-biological activities of the Pentagon in Ukraine.

The incoming materials allow to trace the pattern of interaction between U.S. government agencies and Ukrainian biolabs. The involvement of entities close to the current U.S. leadership, notably the Rosemont Seneca investment fund run by Hunter Biden, is noticeable in the funding of these activities. The Fund has significant financial resources of at least $2.4 billion. The foundation is closely linked to key contractors of the U.S. MoD, including Metabiota, which, along with Black and Veach, is a major supplier of relevant equipment to the Pentagon's biolabs around the world.

The scale of the program is impressive.

The U.S. Agency for International Development, the George Soros Foundation and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention are directly involved, in addition to the Pentagon. Scientific supervision is provided by leading research organizations, including the Los Alamos National Laboratory, which is developing nuclear weapons.

All these activities are carried out under the full control of the Pentagon.

30 Ukrainian laboratories, located in 14 Ukrainian cities were involved in full-scale military-biological activities.

One document was signed by Viktor Polishchuk, Deputy State Secretary of the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers. The legal basis for its signing was the Agreement on Cooperation to Prevent the Spread of Technologies, Pathogens and Information that could be used for the development of biological weapons.

The key contractor was the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

The funding for 2018-2020 alone was around $32 million. The text of the document proves that the United States, its personnel and contractors are exempt from the obligation to pay taxes or other similar fees that are levied in Ukraine.

The Russian Ministry of Defence has disclosed and summarized the flow of biomaterials. Funding for military-biological activities has enabled the USA and its allies to export at least 16,000 bio samples outside Ukraine.

Thus, under the UP-8 project in Lvov, Kharkov, Odessa and Kiev, blood samples were taken from 4,000 Ukrainian servicemen for antibodies to hantaviruses and from 400 for antibodies to the Congo-Crimean fever virus. According to figures published in the Bulgarian media, some 20 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in experiments in the Kharkov laboratory alone and another 200 were hospitalized.

This large-scale screening of the natural immunity of the population was probably carried out in order to select the biological agents most dangerous to the population of a particular region. Documents review reveals that not only human tissue and serum samples, but also dangerous pathogens and their transporters were exported. Thus, more than 10,000 samples were sent to Lugar Centre in Georgia. Other recipients include: reference laboratories in the UK and the Loeffler Institute in Germany.

All this creates risks for the transfer abroad of sensitive genetic information, as well as threats to biological security not only for Ukraine, but also for the regions where the samples were transferred.

One of the U.S. customers' priorities is the anthrax pathogen, which is highly susceptible and persistent in the environment.

The slide shows documents from the UP-2 project, one of the tasks of which was to identify dead animal burial sites, taking soil samples from anthrax animal burial sites. The interest of U.S. military biologists in studying insect vectors in animal burial sites is also not accidental. Apparently, they analyzed the results of an outbreak of anthrax disease in Yamal in 2016, during which cases of vector-borne transmission through flies and gadflies were recorded.

Given that the situation with anthrax in Ukraine remains positive, it raises the question of the need for the Pentagon's research and its true purpose.

It has been established that examples where the U.S. military departments work with anthrax has ended in biosecurity emergencies. Between 2005 and 2015, viable anthrax spores were sent from the U.S. Army's Dugway proving ground to 194 recipients in ten countries.

The current situation with the shipment of pathogenic biomaterials from Ukraine to European countries could result in loss of life and create a hotbed of epidemiological instability on a scale comparable to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Russia continues to share information on research involving Ukrainian military personnel. Such work is prohibited within the U.S. and is carried out by the U.S. Pentagon outside the continental USA.

The documents confirmed the attempt to test previously untested medicines on them. This is the Deep Drug screening system for unlicensed pharmaceuticals in the United States and Canada.

What makes the U.S. sponsors particularly cynical is that the developer, Scymount, offered to purchase the system in question on a commercial basis, despite the fact that Ukrainian Ministry of Defence officials were engaged as volunteers.

Such unacceptable approaches, with the tacit approval of the U.S. administration, are the norm for big pharma companies. For example, the U.S. Naval Medical Centre in Jakarta was shut down by Indonesian authorities in 2010 because of numerous irregularities. The Americans conducted work at the site outside the agreed research programme, collected biological samples and refused to inform the Indonesian government of their findings. The materials they obtained were used on behalf of the Pentagon-affiliated pharmaceutical company Gilead, which conducts trials of its drugs, including in Ukraine and Georgia.

The number of biological laboratories in the USA is not comparable with other countries. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, they control 336 laboratories in 30 states outside national jurisdiction.

In the context of the incoming information, clarification should be sought from Washington regarding the true objectives of the U.S. biolaboratories as part of the international investigation, including in Ukraine. Russia’s revelations of documents pertaining to US-backed biolabs in Ukraine deserve the world’s attention, and the parties involved need to address those concerns, China’s permanent representative to the UN told the Security Council on March 25th.

2. Humanitarian tragedy still unfolds

The Russian Federation continues its purposeful and coordinated work on the evacuation of civilians and foreign citizens from combat zones, as well as the provision of humanitarian assistance to the population in the territories of Ukraine liberated from neo-Nazis.

Humanitarian corridors in the Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov and Mariupol directions have been opened daily since 10 a.m. by the Russian side, with exit for civilians and foreign citizens provided both to the Russian Federation and to the west - through territories controlled by the official Kiev.

As of the current 24 hours, the Ukrainian side has not agreed on any of the humanitarian corridors proposed by Russia, but has announced 13 additional routes exclusively in Kiev-controlled territories.

The Ukrainian authorities, by continuing to impose no alternative humanitarian corridors, are once again purposefully and inhumanely depriving their citizens of the right to freedom of choice of residence and movement, contrary to the desire of ordinary people to escape the neo-Nazi lawlessness.

The official Kiev rejects with cynical "persistence" initiatives proposed by the Russian side to save millions of Ukrainian citizens, who are being held as "human shields" in blockaded settlements by mad neo-Nazis. This is the monstrous intention of the Ukrainian nationalists - to influence the course of the special military operation by the Russian Armed Forces and the formations of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics by any means, including criminal actions, under cover of defenceless civilians, in the hope of getting help from their Western sponsors.

Pursuing exclusively humane principles, in order to ensure the safe evacuation of civilians forcibly held by nationalists in blocked settlements, on all, including new routes, the Russian Armed Forces and military formations of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics fully comply with the imposed ceasefire.

On the contrary, the Ukrainian authorities, while claiming to be ready to secure routes in Kiev-controlled territories and ostensibly committed to humanistic principles, are obstructing the withdrawal of civilians to safe areas and blocking humanitarian actions, which once again confirms their true, inhumane intentions.

Once again we draw the attention of the United Nations, the OSCE and the International Committee of the Red Cross to the criminal policy of the official Kiev towards Ukrainian citizens and its flagrant violations not only of international humanitarian law but also of its own constitution.

The Russian Federation's Joint Coordination Headquarters for the Humanitarian Response in Ukraine continues to thoroughly document numerous egregious instances of violence against civilians.

Here are just some of them over the past day:

in Kramatorsk, a vehicle delivering drinking water to civilians was hit by a mortar. As a result, three people were injured and two were concussed. The shelling was cynically carried out at the time of distribution of water to the local population;

in Odessa, on the instructions of the governor of the region, the Khadjibey dam was mined, which the neo-Nazis plan to blow up. If these criminal acts are realised, densely populated areas will be in the flood zone along with the townspeople. At the same time, an attempt by a representative of the Ukrainian state emergency service to prevent the said mad decision was rudely and harshly suppressed to the point of threatening to shoot him.

Thus, the Kiev authorities are everywhere demonstrating their complete indifference to their own people and their willingness to sacrifice innocent people in favour of the geopolitical goals of their "Western masters".

Despite all this, with difficulty, but with the observance of all necessary security measures, we manage to save thousands of lives of civilians and foreign citizens every day.

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles imposed by the Ukrainian side, over the past day, without Kiev,s assistance, 19,624 people were evacuated from dangerous areas, 3,300 of them children, and in total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 439,420 people have already been evacuated, of which 91,673 are children.

The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 51,638 vehicles, of which 2,276 per day.

In Mariupol, also without any involvement from the Ukrainian side, 98,081 people have already been rescued from the lawlessness of the nationalists, including 4,183 in the past 24 hours.

A significant part of the population forcibly held by radicals in Ukrainian cities is still looking for any opportunities to evacuate to the territory of Russia, as evidenced by numerous appeals of citizens to Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine official structures, public organizations, directly to the subjects of our country, to relatives and friends, as well as acquaintances living in the Russian Federation.

According to the results of daily monitoring, it was found that only over the past day another 2,125 such appeals were received, and in total there are already 2,728,457 persons in the Russian database with specific surnames and addresses from 2,095 settlements of Ukraine.

Despite the humanitarian corridors opening daily, Ukrainian nationalists continue to hold more than 4,500,000 civilians as a "human shield" in Kiev, Kharkov, Chernigov, Sumy and more than 20 other blocked large settlements.

Additionally, 6,577 foreigners from 23 countries remain hostages of the territorial defence battalions and 67 foreign vessels from 15 countries are blocked in Ukrainian ports. The threat of shelling and high mine danger created by official Kiev in its internal waters and territorial sea prevents vessels from safely leaving the ports of Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhny and reaching the open sea.

More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centres continue to operate in the regions of the Russian Federation. A sufficient number of motor vehicles, including comfortable buses, are located at the checkpoints to take refugees to their chosen places of residence or to temporary accommodation facilities where medical care and hot meals are organized.

The federal executive authorities, with the active participation of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, non-governmental organizations and patriotic movements in the territories under the control of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics and the Russian Armed Forces, are providing humanitarian aid of an unprecedented scale to the long-suffering Ukrainian people.

The most active part in this most important humanitarian work is taken by:Ministry of the Russian Federation for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters, Federal Agency for State Reserves, Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia, Federal Agency for Nationalities, Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation, Federal Agency for Water Resources; Republics of Buryatia and Tatarstan, Moscow, Tula, Voronezh and Bryansk regions, Stavropol Territory and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area; Among political parties and non-profit organisations: United Russia, the All-Russian public organization of veterans Boyevoe Bratstvo, the autonomous non-profit organization supporting humanitarian programmes Russian Humanitarian Mission and the All-Russian public movement People's Front.

More than 20,500 tons of basic necessities, food and medicines have been prepared at the collection points.

Since March 2nd 2022, 5,298 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 645 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 28 actions in Kiev, Kharkov, Sumy and Kherson regions, as well as in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, during which 255 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

Today, 13 humanitarian actions are being held in Chernigov and Kherson regions and republics of Donbass and Lugansk as well as in the liberated settlements of Ukraine, within the framework of which 110 tons of basic necessities and food packages, including baby food and vital medicines, are being transferred to the population.

3. Drifting sea mines released by Ukraine

With worsening hydrometeorological conditions in the northern part of the Black Sea, the threat of derailed anchor mines drifting along the coast of the Black Sea states remains (drifting mines will reach the territorial sea of Romania after four days and Bulgaria after ten days).

In confirmation of this, the Russian Federation is opening daily from 08:00 to 19:00 (Moscow time) a humanitarian sea corridor, which is a safe lane south-west of Ukraine's territorial sea, 80 nautical miles long and three nautical miles wide.

At the same time, so far the Ukrainian side has not confirmed its readiness to ensure the safety of foreign vessels entering the assembly area and is avoiding any kind of interaction to resolve this issue.

Russia called on the entire international community, especially the International Maritime Organization, to exert influence on official Kiev and take effective measures to unblock and secure the exit of foreign vessels from Ukrainian ports.

Turkish military has intercepted one Ukrainian naval mine near the Bosphorus strait, the country’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said on March 25th. There is unconfirmed report that the second such drifting mine was spotted in that area.

There is no danger to the freedom of civil navigation on the part of the Russian Federation.

4. Situation at the battlegrounds

During the day's fighting, more than 30 servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces of 54th Mechanised Brigade, 6 armoured vehicles and 2 field artillery mounts of 46th Separate Assault Battalion were destroyed. The defending units of the 25th Ukrainian Separate Airborne Brigade are suffering significant losses. Most of the fortifications have already been destroyed.

Units of the Russian Armed Forces are fighting for the capture of Novomikhailovka. The offensive continues against the well-fortified concrete fortifications in Novoselovka and Novobakhmutovka settlements.

During the day, up to 50 Ukrainian servicemen were destroyed, 7 long-term firing points and 5 armoured targets in protected shelters were damaged.

 

On March 26th, high-precision, long-range aviation weapons destroyed a large fuel base near Lvov, which provided fuel for Ukrainian troops in western Ukraine, as well as near Kiev. In addition, high-precision cruise missiles have destroyed the workshops of Lvov Radio Repair Plant in Lvov city. This enterprise has overhauled and upgraded Tor and S-125 anti-aircraft missile systems, radar stations for Ukrainian air force, electronic warfare equipment and sights for tanks. Also, high-precision sea-based long-range weapons destroyed a warehouse of missiles for S-300 and Buk anti-aircraft missile systems in Plesetskoye, 30 kilometres southwest of Kiev city.

Operational-tactical and army aviation hit 67 military assets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.Among them: 2 command posts, 3 field depots with arms and ammunition, 11 strongholds of Ukrainian Armed Forces units and 20 areas of military equipment concentration. Russian air defence means overnight destroyed 18 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles over Novaya Basan, Peski, Borispol, Shchors, Vishnevoe, Kryukovka and Petrovskiy.

In total, from February 24th 289 unmanned aerial vehicles, 1,656 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 169 multiple launch rocket systems, 684 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,503  special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.

5. Food for thought

It has been reported that Dalai Lama and other persons issued an appeal with the demand to stop “aggression” in Ukraine and not use nuclear weapons there.

It is very strange that such noble and highly respected person like Dalai Lama and other persons made two political mistakes in their appeal.

First, there is no "invasion" into Ukraine, but liberation of it from neo-nazis and to save lives of civilians in Donbass. War criminals in Kiev have killed 14.000 civilians in Donbass during two Ukrainian aggressions vs it in 2014-2015. Such figure is recognized by the UNO.

From February 17th, 2022 till March 26th, 2022 in Donetsk People's Republic only Kiev also killed 64 and injured 534 peaceful citizens, including 46 kids. 1704 living houses, 439 social civilian buildings, like hospitals (26), educational assets (59) and life support systems like gas and water pipelines (241) have been destroyed there.

Each day the Ukrainian Armed Forces shell residential areas in Donbass where there are no military targets by firing about 100-200 arty and mortar shells and missiles. From March 26th they released more than 300 such shells and missiles from Grad MRLS, 122 mm artillery and 120 mm mortars.

Such tragic figures eloquently prove that Moscow was right when it started from February 24th, 2022 a military operation aimed at demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.

Second, Russia has never announced its desire to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine: a) the Russian Senate has not made any decision to use them; b) there is no need to use them at all – Russia made major success in destroying a war machine of Ukrainian neo-nazis by using conventional weapons. Ukrainian Navy, Air Force and AAD have been nearly ruined and Donbass ultra-nationalist battalion destroyed.

The U.S. stance on potential use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine is not known. At the same time it is clear that Washington is still committed to employ its nuclear weapons in the first strike in many cases (see PPT slide).

Unfortunately, there is a dead silence from the co-authors of that appeal on all these facts described in several short sentences.

By the end of March 2022 President Putin’s popularity has reached by 77,9% (in February 2022 it was 64,3%)

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 290. Moscow has no intention to use NW

 

October 1, 2023

1. Russia warns against speculating on use of NW

Moscow has advised against speculating on the employment of NW or nuclear weapons at all as it sees no need to use them, Konstantin Gavrilov, head of the Russian delegation to the Vienna Negotiations on Military Security and Arms Control, told Rossiya-24 federal TV Channel.

Commenting on discussions around the potential use of nukes amid the aggression of Ukraine, the diplomat said: "The Americans voiced [their speculations] that Russia threatens to use nuclear weapons. We have never done this. We have guidelines, and we have doctrines that say when and where nuclear weapons can be used. We adhere strictly to these principles. And it’s not worth speculating here."

As regards London sending depleted uranium or DU rounds to Kiev, he said this is cause for concern as these weapons contaminate local soil and make vast territories unsuitable for use. "These are toxicity-related issues," the diplomat concluded.

2. Russian conscripts will not take part in the SMO

Russia’s General Staff does not plan another call-up, said Rear Admiral Vladimir Tsimlyansky, Deputy Head of the Russian General Staff’s main organization and mobilization department. "I’d like to stress that the General Staff [of Russia’s Armed Forces] has no plans for a further mobilization," he told a news briefing ahead of the fall draft that kicks off on October 1, 2023.

On 15 September, 2023 Russian President Vladimir Putin told journalists that 300,000 people voluntarily have signed contracts with the Defense Ministry to take part in the combat operations in Ukraine. In December 2022 there were 20,000 contractors.

There are twice-yearly call-up periods in Russia. The first call-up people have not been sent the frontline as well.

3. Ukrainian army is still shelling Russian territory

The Ukrainian military conducted about 100 shelling attacks on Russia’s Belgorod Region on September 30, regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov wrote on Telegram. According to him, there were no casualties.

However, in the Sunday morning [October 1st], the Ukrainian Armed Forces shelled the area of the central market in Shebekino. According to early reports, three people were injured. A woman has shrapnel wounds to the neck. Two men have shrapnel wounds to the legs," Gladkov wrote on his Telegram Channel.

4. Chasing Leopard tanks. For money as well

Kiev earlier received about 60 Leopard tanks from Western countries. The equipment, however, has failed to help them break through Russian defensive lines during this summer’s failed ‘counteroffensive’.

First Guard Tank Army servicemen of Russia’s Western Military District have received a check for one million rubles ($10,200) as an award for destroying the Ukrainian Army’s German-made Leopard main battle tank in the Special Operation zone, the Russian Ministry of Defense said in a statement.

5. The US Congress stamps no aid to Kiev

The US Congress has approved a bill to extend the funding of the country's government for 45 days (until November 17) without providing aid to Ukraine, according to the vote broadcast on the website of the upper house of the Congress.

6. Ukrainian losses since February 2022

Since February 24, 2022 during the Special Military Operation in total, 482 Ukrainian airplanes; 250 helicopters; 7,277 unmanned aerial vehicles; 438 air defence missile systems; 12,218 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles;1,157 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS; 6,598 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 13,605 special military motor vehicles have been destroyed

Note: gray zone means that the territory has not been liberated yet

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 291. The USA & NATO. Seeking first nuclear strike

October 3, 2029

At NATO’s annual Nuclear Policy Symposium kicked off in Lisbon, Portugal, at the end of last September its participants traditionally blamed Russia for its “irresponsible nuclear rhetoric” and China’s “rapid and opaque nuclear expansion that is also cause for concern”. “While we continue to focus on deterring the very real and reckless nuclear threats from Russia, we can’t lose sight of other global nuclear challenges,” said at the meeting Jessica Cox, NATO’s Director of Nuclear Policy. 


Has she proved by any document that Moscow pursues “irresponsible nuclear rhetoric”? No. When and where such rhetoric was noticed by her? Nowhere. Did she mean official statements made by President Vladimir Putin on nuclear weapons’ (NW) use? Yes, she did.


Though if she asked her staffers to find anything like that, she would get no positive answer, because in all Vladimir Putin’s public remarks there were no words on the potential employment of NW by Russia in any part of the globe. Yes, he sometimes used a phrase about a possibility to resort to “other means” of warfare to disrupt unprovoked massive Ukrainian-NATO aggression against Russia, but it has been directly related not to NW, but rather – to hypersonic weapons and recently outlined term like “arms created on new physical principles”.

U.S. nuclear strategy, policy and attitude to NFS: a very high bar

The reality is that the main actor in further nuclearization of the world has been and still is the USA.

In the 2022 U.S. Nuclear Posture Review or NPR openly stated that the United States is committed to the modernization of its nuclear forces, nuclear command, control, and communications system (NC3), and production and support infrastructure, and to sustaining fielded systems through the transition to their replacements.

The 2022 NPR contained decisions to ensure an effective nuclear deterrent that provides for a first nuclear use or a first nuclear strike while seeking the goal of enhancing the role of nuclear weapons in the U.S. national security and national defense strategies.

The current U.S. nuclear deterrent policy has the following key principles: (1) to adopt a strategy and declaratory policy that maintain a very high bar for nuclear employment while assuring allies and partners; (2) to adopt an integrated deterrence approach that works to leverage nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities to tailor deterrence under specific circumstances; (3) to take steps to strengthen extended nuclear deterrence outside the CONUS and to allied assurance; (4) to affirm full-scope strategic nuclear triad replacement and other nuclear modernization programs, including NC3, and (5) to block verifiable and genuine nuclear arms control. 

As part of NPR implementation, the United States will update NW employment guidance in accordance with the policy and strategy established by the president who has a sole, exclusive right to order to use national strategic and tactical nuclear weapons anywhere and anytime. 

The U.S. nuclear deterrent strategy undergirds all national defense priorities, including defending the U.S. homeland, deterring strategic attacks against the United States, its allies and partners, and deterring regional aggression. In other words, by using NW in the whole world

Another important element of the U.S. integrated deterrence is synchronizing nuclear and nonnuclear planning, exercises, and operations. The goal is to strengthen deterrence by lowering the nuclear threshold on a global scale and to resort to nuclear escalation formula. At NATO Chicago Summit held in 2012, the USA has hammered out the ‘Chicago Triad’ – a trilateral combination of nuclear, missile defense and non-nuclear heavy weapons’ forces acting together as a single unified mechanism.

The three legs of the nuclear strategic triad in the “Chicago Triad’ are complementary, with each component offering unique attributes. Maintaining a modern nuclear triad possessing these attributes – effectiveness, responsiveness, survivability, flexibility, and visibility – ensures that the United States can use NW in a first nuclear strike, withstand and respond to any strategic attack, tailor its deterrence strategies as needed, and assure allies in support of the U.S. extended nuclear deterrence commitments.


Washington is not committed to genuine nuclear arms control.


It has unilaterally withdrawn from the INF Treaty. It will deploy INF-related nuclear missiles in Europe and Asia. Their production began.

It was refraining from facilitating New START Treaty Russian inspection activities on the U.S. territory, specifically by revoking existing visas issued to Russian New START Treaty inspectors and aircrew members, denying pending applications for such visas, and by revoking the standing diplomatic clearance numbers issued for Russian New START Treaty inspection airplanes. On telemetry issue the U.S. side announced that the USA will not be providing telemetric information on launches of U.S. ICBMs and SLBMs.

It is violating Article I of the NPT prohibiting to deploy NW on territories of non-NW states. U.S. NW is still stored on the territory of five NATO members.

It does not sign the TPNW or Treaty on Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

It has signed, but has not ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty known as CTBT, and is not committed to achieve its entry into force. The United States maintains a nuclear explosive test readiness program.

It has not reduced the role of NW in the U.S. national security strategy and the salience of NW globally.

It does not work with a sense of urgency to reduce the danger of using NW in Ukraine and in global nuclear war, which would have catastrophic consequences for Europe and the entire world.

NATO nuclear policy. Is it different from that of the U.S.?

No, it is not.

The U.S. strategic nuclear forces and forward-deployed nuclear weapons provide an essential political and military link between Europe and North America.

Combined with the independent nuclear forces of France and the United Kingdom and NATO’s nuclear burden-sharing arrangements, U.S. nuclear forces remain essential to the alliance’s deterrence and defense posture that is very aggressive and de facto offensive.

NATO has taken steps to ensure a modern, ready, and credible NATO nuclear deterrent. This includes modernizing U.S. nuclear weapons forward-deployed in Europe and, with participating NATO allies, transitioning to a new generation of fighter aircraft, including the U.S. F-35A Joint Strike Fighter certified to carry NW. The United States will work with Allies concerned to ensure that the transition to modern dual capable fighter aircraft or DCA and the B61-12 bomb is executed efficiently and with its high readiness. 

The alliance has admitted that to enable that strategy, NATO nuclear and conventional forces must be capable of providing a robust range of response options to restore nuclear deterrence; continuing to operate effectively to achieve U.S. and allied objectives by NW. Modernization of NATO’s DCA capabilities is considered necessary and ongoing. Though NATO’s theater nuclear forces are too big, in order to meet these requirements its military leadership proclaimed the need to use a wide-range of continuously forward deployed, survivable theater nuclear capabilities that can reliably penetrate any potential theater air and missile defenses.


A combined Ukrainian-NATO aggression against Russia is a vivid example of such policy. For this purpose, the USA intends to deliver to a failed Ukraine a cluster of F-16 fighter-bomber also certified to delivery NW. It has to be reminded that NATO’s Baltic Air Policing Operation that started since 2004 in the sky of four NATO nations is expanding.


NATO firmly announced that it should supplement its dual capable fighter capability with at least one more theater nuclear capability that meets the requirements noted above. Several candidate systems could meet this requirement, but a nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N) deployed on U.S. attack submarines provides all the necessary attributes.

At the latest NATO Summit held in Vilnius in July 2023 NATO pledged that it will take all necessary steps to ensure the credibility, effectiveness, safety and security of the nuclear deterrent mission. This included continuing to modernize NATO’s nuclear capability and updating planning to increase flexibility and adaptability of the alliance’s nuclear forces, while exercising strong political control at all times. The pact reaffirmed the imperative to ensure the broadest possible participation by allies concerned in NATO’s nuclear burden-sharing arrangements to demonstrate alliance unity and resolve.

The Western military pact committed to ensuring greater integration and coherence of capabilities and activities across all domains and the spectrum of conflict, while reaffirming the unique and distinct role of nuclear deterrence. NATO will continue to maintain credible deterrence, strengthen its strategic communications, enhance the effectiveness of its exercises.

To sum up. Whence is the nuclear threat to peace? From the USA and NATO. Russia is still committed to NFS policy and never threatened to use nuclear arms.

***

Note: Dr. Vladimir Kozin is the author of 21 various monographs on nuclear and other arms control issues. His recently released book is entitled “U.S. Basic Military Strategies: Their Analysis and Practical Employment”. Moscow: Sabashnikov’s Publishing House. 2023. 516 PP. It is written in English and Russian under separate covers. The book examines 12 major U.S. military strategies enacted by presidents D. Trump and J. Biden (6 plus 6).

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 293. No nukes in the Middle & Near East? Yes, right now!

October 9, 2023

Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has recently warned that if Iran were to acquire a nuclear weapon or NW, the Kingdom would seek to do the same, prompting Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to point out that Tehran has repeatedly said it does not have such plans.


Lavrov also added: "No one wants more nuclear countries to emerge in the world.”


Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stated: “If they [Iranians] get one, we have to get one,” the Crown Prince stated in an interview on September 20, 2023. It should be noted that the Saudi Royal also voiced apprehensions about “any country getting a nuclear weapon,” saying it would be a “bad move.” Incidentally, the Saudi leader initially made the same statement back in 2018.

Clearly, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is not happy if Tehran creates its national nuclear capabilities. . Iran has not produced any kind of NW at all. The same logic is seen in Iranian leaders’ view who are not happy that Israel has already created its own NW and its delivery systems.


The concern of many immediate or far away neighbors of Israel over such undeniable fact has been expressed many times, including by Russia, at various international fora, especially during debates on the issue of creating of the nuclear-free zone in the Middle East or NFZME.


A reminder: such positive idea has been officially put forward for the first time by Egypt and Iran. It was in 1974. Half a century ago.

Later on, several states have elaborated a cluster of principles of the future NFZME, and a group of international experts including myself have hammered out and published their respective individual NFZME draft treaty to be signed and ratified by all Middle and Near East nations plus all nine de jure and de facto NW states.

However, the proposal has not been implemented.

This goal that will undoubtedly consolidate the regional NPT regime and avoid any nuclearized chain reaction has not been attained due to just one reason: the USA and Israel has never wanted and still do not want this noble notion to be realized.

What is the adequate way to override such impasse?


Israel should – voluntarily and individually or in the frame of the future international NFZME treaty – agree to dismantle and destroy all its nuclear warheads and take a pledge not to recreate any kind of NW in the future.


This is the only option. The nation that has made nuclear weapons in this vast region first  – and it is Israel – must be the first nation who must proclaim its NFZ status first.

Naturally, Iran and Saudi Arabia and Iran should never seek to forge NW on their soil if Israel becomes a nuclear-free nation.

Something additionally has to be made: the USA must take up its pledge not to use its NW against all nations in the Middle and the Near East.


Such arrangements are very urgent right now, especially during current sharp and dramatic Palestinian-Israeli military confrontation.


I am sure that all these steps will be welcomed by many nations all over the world except proponents for NW proliferation.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 294. Ukraine’s counteroffensive fully collapsed

October 16, 2023

1. A total failure of the Kiev’s ‘counteroffensive’: dramatic loss of manpower, money and Western weapons

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed, although Kiev is preparing new attacks in certain areas, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview to the TV program "Moscow. Kremlin. Putin".

"As for the counteroffensive, which has allegedly been stalled, it has failed completely. We know that in certain areas of combat operations the opposing side is nevertheless preparing new active offensive operations. We see this, and we know about it. And we are also reacting accordingly," he said in the interview in Moscow.

At the Valdai International Discussion Club meeting ten days ago the head of the Russian state reported that since June 4th, 2023 – the start of the so-called counteroffensive – the Ukrainian Army has lost:


over 90,000 people as KIA and WIA, 557 tanks, and almost 1,900 armored vehicles of various types.


2. Putin has criticized the U.S. ‘two wars’ concept

The head of state commented on the recommendation of the U.S. Congressional Commission to prepare for a simultaneous war with both the Russian Federation and The PRC, including the engagement of nuclear weapons.

In an interview with Rossiya One TV Channel Vladimir Putin noted: "I don't think these are healthy thoughts that came to the minds of healthy people, because to say that the USA is preparing for war with Russia, well... We are all preparing for war because we follow the well-known ancient principle: ‘if you want peace, prepare for war’. But we act on the assumption that we want peace," he underlined.

Vladimir Putin said that if the United States wanted to go to war with Russia, it would not be a Special Military Operation launched to offset massive and direct Ukrainian/NATO aggression against Russia, but "a completely different war".

At the same time, no one should even allow the thought of the possibility of starting a war between the great nuclear powers, the Russian leader emphasized.


"I don't think that people in their right mind should or can think of such a thought, but if it does, it only makes us wary," he added.


The concept of initiating ‘two wars’ – one waged against Russia and the second one against China – is not a new notion in the U.S. political statements and military strategies. It has been articulated from time to time by both ruling parties in the USA and their political and military leaders. But in all cases, such ballyhoo enhanced additional suspicion and hatred between these three major nuclear powers. In the present-day situation such recommendations, but de facto an appeal to wage three-lateral nuclear wars is a very dangerous move leading towards nuclear global Armageddon.

I am also sure that these ‘recommendations” made by the U.S. Congressional Commission will be left unnoticed by many anti-nuclear and anti-war movements and public figures who prefer to go down the one-sided track of mind: the USA is always innocent.


It will be very easy to predict that such ideas will vanish in the haze all dreams about a possibility to renew the genuine and verifiable nuclear arms control between the USA and Russia. No doubt: the PRC will not join them after such bellicose proposals.

It will be also not so difficult to forecast that only Russia will be once again blamed for the fact that the U.S. lawmakers have made such hawkish decision due to their own poisonous perceptions.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 295. Talks with the USA on NW are not expedient

 

October 19, 2023

On October 17-18, 2023, the State Duma successfully held three hearings on a bill to withdraw Russia's instruments ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)

The issue of the need to revoke such ratification was raised by Russian President Vladimir Putin at a Valdai Discussion Club meeting in early October this year.

On October 18, the Duma passed the relevant law, which called back Article 1 of the law "On Ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty," that contained a provision on ratification of the treaty signed on behalf of the Russian Federation in New York in September 1996.

The new law was adopted unanimously by all deputies present at the session.


On should note the fact of almost complete unanimity inside the MP corps, which was evident at the stage of forging the initial draft of this bill: 438 deputies who were in Moscow at the time co-signed it, out of a total of 450 legislators in the full list. This is a record in the history of the introduction of such documents into the State Duma. 


The explanatory note to the bill stated that revoking of its instrument of ratification was necessary to correct an imbalance between Russia and the USA regarding the scope of obligations under the treaty. While Russia ratified it back in 2000, the U.S. side has yet to ensure this process. The reason? The U.S. military and political leadership has long been talking about reactivating the nuclear test site in Nevada for the purpose of testing new strategic nuclear warheads.

State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin said that the decision to de-ratify the CTBT was taken solely in the interests of our country and the entire world, which should be built on the basis of global stability, security and justice.

Subsequently the law will be sent to President Vladimir Putin for signing.

Inadequate response to the measure: double standard

In the United States, the decision to revoke the ratification of the CTBT by the Russian side caused uproar and even undisguised indignation. But where were the American leaders who prevented the ratification of the CTBT by the USA from 1996 until now? What the U.S. State Department has been doing in this direction for many years? Nothing. How can we explain the reluctance of the American Arms Control Association for criticizing Washington in this domain who has been avoiding ratification of the treaty for almost last 27 years?

It must be recognized that the threat of nuclear missile warfare by the leading states of the "transatlantic solidarity" is not reduced by the two other international treaties in force, namely the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons or NPT that has been violated by the United States through its deployment of air-based nuclear weapons deployed in Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey and the Federal Republic of Germany since the mid-fifties of the last century. None of the nine nuclear-armed states has yet acceded to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons or TPNW that has already entered into force.


The current arms control process is basically at almost zero level, which has happened at the initiative and as a result of deliberate actions of the USA and leading NATO member states.


Therefore, there are deep doubts that any noticeable breakthrough can be achieved in the mentioned direction in the coming years. This is explained by the fact that Washington has a negative attitude to the resumption of constructive negotiations on this issue and has taken a negative stance on 15 key issues that are related to arms control.

In recent years, the U.S. side has unilaterally withdrawn from four treaties related to nuclear and non-nuclear weapons; refused to sign and ratify three treaties in this series; flagrantly violated and continues to violate four other multilateral treaties; and refused at all to discuss four other potential treaties with Russia.

In recent years, the U.S. side has unilaterally withdrawn from four treaties related to nuclear and non-nuclear weapons (ABM Treaty, INF Treaty, Iran nuclear deal known as JCPOA and ATT or Arms Trade Treaty); refused to sign and ratify three treaties in this series (CTBT, TPNW and Adapted CFE Treaty); flagrantly violated and continues to violate four other multilateral treaties (NPT, New START, Open Skies Treaty, and BWC/CWC); and refused at all to discuss four other potential treaties with Russia (INCSEA Treaty on proliferation to submarines, EST or European Security Treaty, PAROS or Treaty on the Prevention of Arms Race in Outer Space and Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space).

 

It is hardly advisable to revisit this issue with the United States in the context of the large-scale armed aggression unleashed against the Russian Federation under the direction and tight leadership of Washington.


Russia should also take into account the call of the American Congressional Commission that the United States should be prepared for two simultaneous wars with Russia and China, including a nuclear war.


The New START: no resumption

The resumption of the New START process is also hindered by six key U.S. military strategies endorsed by the Biden administration. They all are aggressive-offensive in nature toward Russia and China, and the current U.S. nuclear military strategic posture envisions a nuclear missile first strike against Russia and China, reinforced by global missile defense and general-purpose conventional forces.

The United States and its closest NATO allies have dramatically strengthened their nuclear arms and missile defense weapons, as well as their general-purpose forces, which are classified as forward-deployed assets, i.e., those deployed in close proximity to Russia. Unfortunately, this term - "forward-deployed assets" - has practically disappeared from the Russian military-political lexicon, although it is legitimate when qualifying the military activity of the above-mentioned states, to which the term "hostile states" is quite applicable. The existing definition in the form of "unfriendly states" seems too soft in this context.

The position of Russian liberal and clearly pro-Western experts, who continue to advocate the renewal of the Russian-American negotiation process "at any cost" and on the basis of excessive and unjustified Russian concessions to the United States and NATO in the area of the extended New START, also raises questions.

If there is no NFU, the first nuclear strike should be proclaimed

It would be correct for Russia to propose that all other nuclear-armed states agree on the non-use of nuclear weapons in a first strike or no nuclear-first strike (NFS), which would effectively avert the threat of nuclear missile war without entering into lengthy negotiations. And, if, for example, the USA, the United Kingdom, France, Israel and some others refuse to join this possible initiative (that is very likely), Moscow could switch to a ‘nuclear first-strike’ doctrine to be on an equal footing with all NW first strikers.


The transition to this strategy will undoubtedly contribute to the Russian Federation's defense against a real nuclear-missile first strike by the United States and NATO, will not allow it to miss it, and will equalize it with a similar military-strategic setup with the nuclear-armed states of the West. The Russian Federation's transition to such a doctrine seems even more effective in terms of its impact on NATO's nuclear-armed states than the withdrawal of national instruments of ratification of the CTBT.


It makes no sense to start negotiations with the U.S. side on strategic nuclear offensive arms reductions after February 2026, when the New START expires. In the prospective of ‘the Newest START’, the White House will insist on limiting or reducing all seven prospective Russian weapons in which our state has a clear military-technical advantage. These are the six types announced in 2018 in President Vladimir Putin's Address to the Federal Assembly, as well as the Russian hypersonic missile Zirkon capable hit sea-based and land-based targets, which was put into service earlier this year.

Moreover, it seems inappropriate to conduct these negotiations in the context of the ongoing combined massive direct aggression by Ukraine and NATO against the Russian Federation, which the leading countries of this military pact, led by the United States of America, intend to continue by supplying lethal weapons that kill Russian servicemen and civilians and by making significant financial contributions to the military machine of the ultra-nationalist Kyiv regime.

The practice of demonstrations of the latest Russian weapons systems to U.S. and other NATO representatives with the aim of ‘involving them in the negotiation process in the arms control’ should also be abandoned. Such demonstrations will be used by the hostile side as a pretext to start the negotiation process in order to weaken Russia's defense potential of its national combined integrated deterrence, which includes not only nuclear missile weapons, but also hypersonic glide vehicles and some other strike capabilities based on new physical principles.


Maintaining national defense and national security at an appropriate level is a sacred, iron-clad and undisputable task of the Russian Federation.


*  *  *

Dr. Vladimir Kozin, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences and the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, Leading Expert of the Center for Political-Military Studies, MGIMO University.

He is the author of 21 various monographs on nuclear and other arms control issues. His recently released book is entitled “U.S. Basic Military Strategies: Their Analysis and Practical Employment”. Moscow: Sabashnikov’s Publishing House. 2023. 516 PP. It is written in English and Russian under separate covers. The book examines 12 major U.S. military strategies enacted by presidents D. Trump and J. Biden (6 plus 6).

 

 

 

 

Report # 296. Russia intensified its OPNS in October

October 27th, 2023.

Russia has intensified its operations against Armed Forces of Ukraine or AFU in October 2023.

On the other hand, AFU has slowed down its activity due to several factors, namely: lack of military resources and no desire to fight for unclear aggressive reasons, a great number of POW and KIA, plus arrival of new hi tech Russian weapons on the battlefield that resulted in destruction of too many Ukrainian aircraft in the air and Ukrainian and foreign tanks on the ground.

Here are the latest figures announced by the Russian Armed Forces on October 27th, 2023.


Since 1 October 2023, Russia’s fighter jets and AAD systems have shot down 31 airplanes and three helicopters, including: 20 MiG-29 airplanes, eight Su-25 ground-attack aircraft, one Su-24 bomber, two L-39 jet trainers, and three Mi-8 helicopters of Ukrainian Air Force.


In addition, over the past week only: 208 Ukrainian UAVs have been shot down, along with 19 HIMARS and four Uragan projectiles, two ATACMS missiles, two Neptune anti-ship missiles, six HARM anti-radiation missiles, eight JDAM guided bombs, and one S-200 converted surface-to-surface missile

In total, since the Special Military Operation began:

  • 515 airplanes,
  • 253 helicopters,
  • 8,312 unmanned aerial vehicles,
  • 441 air defence missile systems,
  • 12,960 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles,
  • 1,169 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS,
  • 6,893 field artillery guns and mortars,
  • as well as 14,684 units of special military equipment have been destroyed.

WRITING ON THE WALL:

 

AFU lost its capability to move deeply into new territories that have been saved from unprovoked Ukrainian/NATO/EU aggression against Russia.

Five or ten minor AFU attacks against Russian Armed Forces per day

at the level of platoons will not help Kiev’s regime to survive.

The USA, the EU and NATO made a gross blunder by making a stake on

irrelevant and failed Mr Clown.

Any additional Western military aid and arms/ammunition supplies will not be able to safe AFU from gradual and final defeat.

AFU may also lose its potential to resist and to arrange any kind of sophisticated defense against Russian Armed Forces.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 297. Kiev continues its nuclear terrorism in Russia

29 October 2023 

On October 28, 2023 Russian MFA issued a comment on the Kiev regime’s terrorist attack on the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant or KuNPP located in Russia. It has been stated that in the evening of October 26, 2023 the Ukrainian Armed Forces intentionally attacked the KKuNPP with three unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) loaded with high explosives (HE).

One of the UAVs crashed into a nuclear waste warehouse and damaged its walls. The other two fell on the plant’s administrative building complex. The UAVs used to attack the nuclear power plant had components supplied by Western countries.


This incident clearly showed that the criminal Kiev regime will stop at nothing, including acts of nuclear terrorism. They could not but realize that the UAV attack could have resulted in a full-scale nuclear disaster that would have affected many countries. There could have been no other objectives set for attacking a nuclear power plant, a purely peaceful infrastructure facility.


By attacking the Kursk NPP, the Kiev regime put itself on a par with the most odious terrorist organizations. The fact that this crime could not have been committed without the permission and, possibly, a direct order of its Western curators is of particular concern.

Russian Foreign Ministry called on all Governments to strongly condemn Kiev’s barbaric actions, which are extremely dangerous and can lead to irreparable consequences. The ministry expressed hope that relevant international organizations, environmental NGOs and civil society could also give an appropriate assessment of this act of nuclear terrorism.

It was not the first case when AFU tried to destroy some Russian NPP by UAV attacks and other arms. There have dozens of such incidents arranged by Kiev military junta against Zaporozhye NPP not controlled by AFU for more than a year. It used artillery shells and MRLS with the aim to destroy it. Three times AFU sent their commandos’ teams across the adjacent Kakhovka Rezervoir to capture ZNPP. All attempts have been disrupted.

Unfortunately, in all such cases the IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi responded in the way like three monkeys sitting in an ancient statuette: “I do not see anything, I do not hear anything and I do not tell anybody”.

In his written statement # 191 issued after the attack on October 27th, 2023 only a simple information appeared: “... the IAEA is aware of Russian reports of three drones identified in an area near the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KuNPP) in the south of the Russian Federation, one of which exploded causing minor damage to the façade of the building where spent nuclear fuel is stored. It is reported there were no casualties and the radiation levels at the site of the KuNPP do not exceed the established norms”. 

And a minor revelation: “This week’s events show that nuclear safety and security remains potentially precarious, not only at the Zaporizhzhya [Ukrainian spelling] Nuclear Power Plant. The IAEA will remain present at Ukraine’s nuclear facilities to monitor and inform the world about developments. We will continue to do everything in our power to help prevent a nuclear accident during the military conflict”.


That is all. It means: The IAEA does care if the KuNPP is attacked by AFU.

Because it is located not in Ukraine.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 298. F-16s in Ukraine will survive just a few weeks if they arrive

1 November, 2023

1. Russian has enhanced its AAD potential vs Ukraine

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed on November 1, 2023 that the entire fleet of F-16 warplanes pledged to Kiev by Western donors could be destroyed in less than three weeks. He based his claim on the high rate of success displayed by Russian air defenses in shooting down Ukrainian military aircraft last month. 

Speaking at an enlarged ministerial meeting in Moscow, Shoigu praised Russian forces for conducting over 1,400 successful intercepts in October 2023.


He said the figure included 37 Ukrainian planes downed in the air during very limited timeframe, almost twice the number of F-16s that NATO nations promised to supply to Kiev. If Russian Air Defense Forces work this way, the total amount of the F16 fleet to be sent to Ukrainian Air Force will be destroyed roughly in 20 days,” he predicted


The aircraft that Russian forces took down last month were predominantly Soviet-designed MiG-29s and Su-25s, according to the Russian MoD. Shoigu previously claimed that Russian troops had been using new systems to improve interceptions.

A source cited by TASS has claimed that Russia has been using A-50 airborne radar planes (Russian AWACS) to detect Ukrainian targets earlier and at lower altitudes. The hits were reportedly achieved by long-range guided anti-aircraft missiles fired from S-400 launchers, armed with new warheads. The maximum firing range of such missiles have not been disclosed, but experts claim that they are capable to knock down various hostile jets at longer distances that before.

Ever since the start of the conflict with Moscow, Kiev has been pushing its allies to supply increasingly advanced weapons. Ukrainian pilots are currently being trained to fly F-16s with unsatisfactory results.


The Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and Belgium without making precise and correct calculation of the developments have pledged to provide Kiev with the fighter jets over the next few years.


Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced on October 30, 2023 that the first batch of F-16s allocated by his Government would arrive within two weeks in Romania, where the training of Ukrainians is conducted.

Reports on the number of F-16 that Ukraine could get have been inconsistent. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky claimed in last August that he was promised 42 jets by The Netherlands and Belgium, but a joint statement by the donors did not mention any specific number.

Kiev’s supporters previously suggested that Western-designed weapons would become a gamechanger in the conflict, with their hopes pinned at various points on HIMARS MLRS, Storm Shadow cruise missiles, Leopard main battle tanks, and ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles. The Kremlin has dismissed the notion, saying that the newly-supplied Western weapons will burn like the rest of them, meaning tanks, APC/ACVs etc.

2. President Putin made critical remarks on massive killings of civilians in the Gaza sector

At the meeting with members of the Russian Security Council and Government, and heads of security agencies held on October 30, 2023 in the outskirts of the Russian capital Vladimir Putin made several emotional remarks on the recent developments in the Middle East.

He said: “We remember how the current phase of the Middle East crisis began: it was a terrorist attack against Israeli civilians and civilians from other countries who happened to be in Israel at that time. We see that, unfortunately, instead of punishing criminals and terrorists, they started to retaliate according to the principle of collective responsibility.


There is no justification for the terrible events taking place in Gaza now, where hundreds of thousands of innocent people are being killed indiscriminately, without having anywhere to flee or hide from the bombing.


When you see blood-stained children, dead children, the suffering of women and old people, when you see medics killed, of course, it makes you clench your fists as tears well in your eyes. There is no other way to put it”.

The UNICEF has reiterated its call for a humanitarian ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war, saying the conflict is killing thousands of kids in Gaza and putting many more at risk from the violence and a water crisis. “Gaza has become a graveyard for thousands of children, UNICEF spokesman James Elder told reporters on October 31 in Geneva, “It’s a living hell for everyone else.” He noted that more than 3,450 children in the Palestinian enclave have already been killed, and the death toll rises significantly every day.

At the meeting Vladimir Putin also noted that, unlike the West, Russian approaches towards the situation in the Middle East have always lacked mercenary interests, intrigues and double standards. He stressed that Moscow’s position has not changed at all.


The key to resolving the conflict lies in establishing a sovereign and independent Palestinian state, a full-fledged Palestinian state.


We have repeatedly said this openly and honestly during our contacts with the Palestinian and Israeli leaders”, Russian leader underlined.

He made rather open critical remarks on the U.S. role in the Middle East by stating that the USA ruling elites and their satellites are the major beneficiaries of the global instability.

“They are deriving bloody profits from it," he said at the meeting.


It looks very alarming that contemporary Jews who suffered the tragic Holocaust from Nazi Germany during the WW2 are now waging the Holocaust 2.0 against Arab civilians, kids, elders. women, medics and social infrastructure on a massive scale.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 299. Russia has rapidly increased its arms production

November 2, 2023

1. Can the USA/NATO compete with Russia in boosting arms production?

Russia has greatly boosted production of military hardware over the past year, having multiplied by seven the number of tanks it manufactures, Sergey Chemezov, the CEO of defense corporation Rostec, said on November 1, 2023.

Speaking on Rossiya 24 federal TV Channel, he added that the state-owned high-tech corporation has been continuously modernizing and improving its products as well.


“Over the past year, we ramped up production of tanks by seven times,” Chemezov noted, adding that output of light armor, including assorted infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers grew by a factor of around 4.5.


Rostec has also greatly expanded the volume of ammunition production, Chemezov outlined. Since the beginning of 2023 it has produced 20 times more munitions for multiple rocket launcher systems or MLRS than in all of 2022.


At the same time the production of munitions in some cases has increased by 60 times, and artillery pieces and MLRS by 2.5 times.


Earlier this week, Rostec subsidiary Uralvagonzavod released a video showing a new batch of T-90M tanks, Russia’s most modern, undergoing final testing before being sent to the military. The tanks appeared to feature new improvements, such as additional ‘soft hull’ blocks for its turret, while external armor blocks on the hull are now cased in more robust-looking containers, compared to previous versions.

In mid-October Uralvagonzavod completed a large batch of T-90M and T-72B3 tanks and delivered them to the military. At the time, Russia’s Deputy PM Denis Manturov said the tanks of this type were most in demand, having performed strongly while disrupting a combined direct Ukrainian/NATO aggression against Russia.


Back in September, Rostec’s industrial director Bekhan Ozdoev revealed that the conglomerate has expanded production of high-precision weaponry, namely Iskander ground-based tactical ballistic missiles and air-launched Kinzhal hypersonic missiles.


He said at the time that “among other things, the production of missiles for the Kinzhal, Iskander, and Pantsir [anti-aircraft] systems, aerial bombs, artillery and tank shells is being ramped up.”

2. After an attempt to hit the KuNPP Kiev tried to destroy the ZNPP

Kiev has made a provocation to create a threat of a man-made disaster at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant (ZNPP) and disrupt the rotation of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) staff, the Russian Defense Ministry reported on November 2, 2023. The Armed Forces of Ukraine made the same attack against the Kursk NPP on October 2023 (see Report # 297 entitled “Kiev continues its nuclear terrorism in Russia” released on October 29, 2023).

"The Kiev regime continues provocations with the aim of creating a threat of a man-made disaster at the Zaporozhye NPP and disrupting the rotation of staff of the International Atomic Energy Agency or IAEA at the Zaporozhye NPP," the MoD said in a statement.

At about 12:30 Moscow time (09:30 GMT) on November 2, 2023 in the area of the adjacent city of Energodar located near the ZNPP, air defense systems on-duty detected and intercepted nine Ukrainian UAVs, the statement read.

All these acts are as vivid proof that Kiev is still committed to nuclear blackmail of the entire European continent.

3. Putin signed a law on Russia's withdrawal from CTBT ratification

On November 2, 2023 President Vladimir Putin signed a law on ‘de-ratification’ of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty or CTBT ratified by Moscow in 2000. The new law entered into force the same day.


It has been officially stated that there is “an imbalance between Russia and the United States regarding the volume of obligations under the Treaty, which is unacceptable in the current international situation”.


The adopted law was also designed to restore parity in nuclear arms control commitments. It is specified that it does not imply the country’s withdrawal from the CTBT that was signed by Russia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said earlier that the withdrawal of the instruments of ratification of the treaty equalizes the situation in the field of nuclear testing for Moscow and Washington, which never ratified the CTBT for nearly 27 years. He also pointed out that revoking of the CTBT ratification does not mean that Russia plans to conduct nuclear tests.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 30. Kiev does not adhere to the humanitarian law

March 29th, 2022

1. Humanitarian tragedy

The Russian Federation, in strict accordance with the norms of international humanitarian law, continues systematic and coordinated activity on the safe evacuation of civilians and foreign citizens from dangerous areas of Ukraine.

To this end, every day from 10 a.m., the Russian Armed Forces open humanitarian corridors in the Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov and Mariupol directions: one to Russia and one more through the territories controlled by the Kiev authorities towards the western borders of Ukraine.

Of the routes proposed by the Russian side, official Kiev has agreed on only two for the current day.

The Ukrainian side has not confirmed any humanitarian corridor to the Russian Federation again. At the same time, millions of people held hostage by militants in blocked settlements, in constant fear for their lives and the fate of their loved ones, beg to save them from the lawlessness perpetrated by neo-Nazis and allow them to go to safe places on the territory of Russia.

Solely for humanitarian reasons, the Russian side has agreed on eight additional routes announced by Kiev on the Zaporozhye, Poltava, Sumy and Kharkov directions for the current day.

The Russian Armed Forces strictly observe the ceasefire on all routes, including those declared by the official Kiev authorities.

In turn, the Ukrainian side does not adhere to these humane principles. Violations in the areas of open humanitarian corridors were recorded by means of objective control. So, Ukrainian territorial battalions fired small arms and mortars: from 09:35 to 11:07 in Sumy, and from 10:03 to 10:41 in the Zaporozhye directions, thereby preventing the evacuation of citizens from the blocked settlements.

In addition, the Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine continues to carefully record other inhumane crimes committed by nationalists against civilians.

Here are some of them for the past day:

a) in the suburbs of Kharkov, militants fired mortars mounted on so-called "bandermobiles" at places of mass gathering of civilians (queues at shops, ATMs, food and drinking water distribution points). As a result, three people were killed and more than 10 were injured;

b) the bodies of civilians with traces of brutal torture and carved neo-Nazi symbols and swastikas were found in the basements of buildings in the city of Mariupol, liberated from the nationalists. In addition, civilians rescued from the city confirm the egregious facts of how the neo-Nazis, knowing that there are women with children in the basements, deliberately threw grenades at them.

The Kiev authorities once again show their criminal and cynical nature. Terror and genocide against their own people have become the norm for Ukraine. Comprehensive support from the United States and a number of European Union countries has unleashed the hands of Nazism countrywide, only here military units with the symbols of the Third Reich operate as part of the national armed forces and military formations with the task of destroying everything that does not correspond to their inhuman concepts. The victims are old men and women, and children from an early age are subjected to harsh propaganda of the Nazi ideology to turn them into followers of Bandera, the supporter of Hitler.

Shelling of residential areas and social infrastructure in Donbass still continues by Ukrainian troops every day. On March 28th Donetsk was shelled by them 250 times.

Over March 27th, the Russian Armed Forces, without the participation of the Ukrainian authorities, evacuated 12,825 people to Russia from dangerous areas of Ukraine, Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, 2,045 of them children, and since the beginning of the special military operation, 469,683 people have already been evacuated, of which 97,345 are children.

57,026 units of personal vehicles crossed the state border of the Russian Federation, of which 1,625 units per day.

From Mariupol, without any participation of the Ukrainian side, 105,534 people have already been rescued from the lawlessness organized by the nationalists, including 3,642 people over the past day.

According to the results of daily monitoring of appeals by citizens of Ukraine to the hotline of the Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for humanitarian response in Ukraine, to federal executive authorities, various public organizations, as well as to the subjects of the Russian Federation, to family, friends and acquaintances living in Russia, it was established that a significant part of the population forcibly held by nationalists in Ukrainian cities, still seek any opportunity to evacuate to Russian territory.

Ukrainian neo-Nazis continue to hold over 4.5 million civilians as a "human shield" in Kiev, Kharkov, Chernigov, Sumy and more than two dozen other large settlements.

In addition, 6,546 foreigners from 19 states remain hostage to the militants of territorial defence battalions.

2. Navigation at the Black Sea is under threat

Also, despite the efforts made by the Russian Federation, the Ukrainian side continues to block more than 60 foreign vessels in its ports. The threat of shelling and high mine danger created by official Kiev in its internal waters and territorial sea do not allow ships to safely go to the open sea.

Every day from 08:00 to 19:00 (Moscow time), the Russian Armed Forces open a humanitarian corridor, which is a safe lane in the south-west direction from the territorial sea of Ukraine, with a length of 80 and a width of 3 nautical miles.

At the same time, the Ukrainian side, as before, does not confirm the readiness to ensure the safety of the exit of foreign vessels to the assembly area and in every possible way avoids cooperation in resolving this issue.

Once again, we call on the International Maritime Organization and the management of shipowners' companies to influence official Kiev to take measures aimed at unblocking and ensuring the safety of the exit of foreign vessels from the ports of Ukraine.

In addition, there is a threat of drifting of Ukrainian mines torn from their anchors along the coast of the Black Sea states.

Two of these mines were found in the Bosporus Strait, as well as in the Black Sea near the border with Bulgaria by the Turkish side. Only by a lucky chance, as well as thanks to the vigilance and high professionalism of Turkish specialists, the mines were defused and the ships passing through the Black Sea Straits were not damaged.

The Russian Federation is taking a full range of comprehensive measures to ensure civil navigation in the waters of the Black, Azov and Mediterranean Seas.

In the regions of the Russian Federation, more than 9.5 thousand temporary accommodation facilities continue to function regularly, where individual work is carried out with the arrived refugees and assistance is provided in solving a variety of issues.

At the checkpoints, a sufficient number of buses are ready to transport people to their chosen places of residence or to temporary accommodation points where medical care and hot meals are organized.

Federal executive authorities, together with the subjects of the Russian Federation, public organizations and patriotic movements in the territories controlled by the formations of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics and the Armed Forces of Russia, are carrying out large-scale humanitarian assistance to the Ukrainian people.

The largest contribution to the provision of assistance was made by EMERCOM of Russia, Federal Agency for State Reserves, Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia, other federal agencies, and Russian political parties and NGOs.

 Over 22.5 thousand tons of food, medicines and basic necessities have been prepared at the collection points.

Since March 2nd, 2022, the Russian Federation has delivered 5,708.3 tons of humanitarian cargo to Ukraine; 676 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 21 in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, Kiev, Kharkov and Kherson regions, during which 300.3 tons of food, clothing, hygiene products and medicines were delivered to the civilian population.

On March 28th, 2022, 25 humanitarian actions are being held in the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, Kiev, Chernigov, Kharkov and Kherson regions, during which 488 tons of basic necessities and food packages, including infant food and vital medicines, are being transferred to the population

3. Military operation goes on

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continued to conduct a special military operation during March 27-28th.

During March 27th, operational-tactical and army aviation hit 36 military assets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF).

Among them: 2 command posts, 2 anti-aircraft missile systems, 1 multiple launch rocket system, 3 ammunition depots and 2 fuel depots, as well as 23 areas of military equipment concentration.

In total, from the beginning of the military operation (February 24th, 2022) and by March 27th 1,713 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 170 multiple launch rocket systems, 715 field artillery and mortars, 308 unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as 1,557 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.

In the evening of March 28th, high-precision air-launched cruise missiles destroyed a large fuel base near the settlement of Klevan, Rovno Region. Fuel supplies for Ukrainian military equipment were carried out from this base to the suburbs of Kiev.

The Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed 3 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the area of the settlement of Chernobayevka.

During the night, 68 military facilities of Ukraine were hit by tactical aviation.

Among them: three control points, four anti-aircraft missile systems, including three Buk–M1 and one Osa, one radar station, five multiple rocket launchers, two ammunition depots, three fuel and lubricants depots, and 19 areas of concentration of Ukrainian military equipment and strong points.

On 28 March, the Russian Air Force and air defences downed two Ukrainian Su-24 and one Su-25 jets, as well as one unspecified drone.

Forces of the Donetsk People's Republic have, with help from Russian troops, managed to surround the city of Mariupol, seizing its suburbs, including the airport, and started to clear the city of the remaining Azov nationalist battalion fighters, the republic's authorities said.

Russian air defences have shot down a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter as it was flying to pick up leaders of the Azov nationalist battalion from Mariupol, the Russian Defence Ministry has stated. The aircraft was hit as it was flying over the Sea of Azov,

By March 28th in total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 123 aircraft and 74 helicopters, 1,738 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 181 multiple rocket launchers, 726 field artillery and mortars, 311 unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as 1,592 special military vehicles have been destroyed.

4. Russian-Ukrainian talks

A new round of talks to end the Ukraine conflict began in Istanbul, Turkey on March 29th. Moscow and Kiev have previously held three rounds of in-person talks and further contacts via video link, but the exchanges have failed to yield any tangible result.

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Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 300. Major ukrainian setbacks, and a new U.S. n-bomb

November 6, 2023

1. Putin’s critical remarks on Ukraine

President Vladimir Putin met with members of the eighth Civic Chamber of the Russian Federation and heads of regional civic chambers at the Victory Museum in Moscow on November 3, 2023

Touching the issue of corruption, he said: “You know, we have many problems in Russia as well. We are fighting corruption in Russia, and they are fighting it all over the world.


But the way Ukraine has been living under Ukrainian corruption, there is no such thing in the world, I assure you. There is nothing else like it in the world! You can believe me, I have been in close contact with former leaders. Payoffs for everything: for a vote in the Supreme Court, for a vote in the Constitutional Court. Payoffs”.


Putin also mentioned that some Western weapons given to Kiev is sold outside Ukraine: “Now they say that weapons from Ukraine are appearing in the Middle East. Of course, they are. They sell weapons. And they sell them to the Taliban, and from there weapons go anywhere else. Everything is bought and sold”.

Putin also mentioned that Russia maintains excellent relations with Moslems in the country. In his words, there are eight thousand mosques across the country.

[note: the full text can be found at: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/72672]

2. The USA sends a reduced aid package to Ukraine

The US Administration provides another aid package to Ukraine worth $125 million, which will include air defense systems, weapons and vehicles, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced.


It is much less than earlier arms packages provided by Washington to Kiev. It has been authorized under previously directed drawdowns for Ukraine.


The US House of Representatives recently passed a $14.3 billion aid bill for Israel but left out billions President Joe Biden requested for Ukraine amid stiff resistance from Republicans over funding Kiev. The bill goes to the Senate where it is unlikely to pass and in the face of a White House veto threat.

The newly-elected House Speaker Mike Johnson wisely separated Israeli aid from Ukrainian War spending. In his words, "Both parties support aid for Israel, but aid for Ukraine is highly contentious. Americans ask why our borders are undefended while politicians spend fortunes abroad." "Unless there is a major event that brings Kiev back into the headline news which they have not been in since the Israel War began, there will be a lot less money flowing into Ukraine," he added.

Ukraine's budget has been running a deficit of about $5 billion a month since the beginning of Russia's Special Military Operation, with two-thirds of the money coming from foreign loans and grants, and three-quarters spent on military needs, Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko announced earlier in the year.

3. Ukrainian Сommander-in-Сhief’s recent revelations

Some days ago, General Valery Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian Army’s Сommander-in-Сhief, admitted that Kiev needed to take a massive technological leap to break the current "stalemate" in its counteroffensive against Russian troops. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough,” he underscored in an interview with the Economist magazine.

Valery Zaluzhny who sometimes is not happy with President Volodymyr Zelensky’s political orders on the battlefield had conceded that “NATO’s textbooks” and “the math” that Kiev did to plan the much-heralded counteroffensive had failed to prevent Russian forces from effectively tackling Ukrainian troops.

General also ruminated that the aforementioned NATO textbooks and the calculations had suggested that, “four months should have been enough time for us [the Ukrainian army] to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again.” Such task has not been fulfilled at all.

He was referring to the peninsula which opted to split off from Ukraine after the February 2014 Euromaidan coup, voting overwhelmingly in a referendum in March 2014 to rejoin Russia. Ukraine had boasted of plans to use its counteroffensive launched in the summer to seize the Crimea. In effect, however, no amount of sophisticated and billions-worth of weaponry was able to aid Kiev in its counteroffensive ambitions.


Ukrainian Сommander-in-Сhief had also added that he was concerned about the fact that "sooner or later we [Kiev] will realize that we simply don't have enough people to fight."


Valery Zaluzhny’s revelations have not been welcomed by Ukrainian political leaders. They noted that during military operations it is not advisable to open all the cards to an immediate neighbor.

Ukraine lost over 90,000 servicemen killed and wounded only since start of counteroffensive on June 4, 2023 Russia’s Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu said on October 30, 2023. It was added that the Ukrainian counteroffensive had failed to achieve significant success on the battlefield, with the Ukrainian forces losing around 600 tanks and about 1,900 armored vehicles. The Russian Army will continue to "methodically and confidently" carry out assigned tasks in the special military op zone, added the Ministry.

The US-spearheaded Western strategy had been to use Ukraine as a pawn in its proxy war to attempt to “isolate Russia economically, to weaken Russia's military capability, and to strengthen Ukraine as a potential EU and even NATO member,” Karen Kwiatkowski, the retired Polish Lt-Colonel, underscored. However, “in each of these publicly stated objectives, if there was a strategy to do these things, it backfired and failed in all cases,” he added


Such “across the board failures” can only mean that “either the strategy was so bad it should have never made it off the table, or failure and destruction was the strategy, just one not publicly stated,” Kwiatkowski stressed.


4. The USA will produce more powerful A-bomb

The Pentagon announced late last month that it would seek to make a new variant of the B61 nuclear gravity bomb – the B61-13 – pending authorization by Congress. The weapon would have an estimated 360-kiloton yield, which is 24 times more powerful than the one dropped on Hiroshima during World War II by the USA.


The new nuclear bomb will be able to perform both functions: tactical and strategic. It will be deployed in Europe and Asia as a forward-based weapon.


If detonated over Moscow, the bomb would kill an estimated 311,480 people and injure up to 868,860, Newsweek said. If dropped on St. Petersburg, Russia’s second-largest city, the estimated number of fatalities from the explosion would reach 360,150, the publication added.

According to Newsweek, anything within a half-mile radius from the bomb’s detonation site would be vaporized by a massive fireball. The blast would demolish buildings and likely kill everyone within a mile, while those within two miles of the detonation site would be dead within a month due to the high level of radiation exposure, the magazine wrote. A further 15% of survivors would later die of cancer and many would suffer life-altering burns.


The plan to design a new U.S. A-bomb was unveiled amid the Ukrainian/NATO aggression against Russia, as experts, politicians, and the media have discussed the risks of the conflict escalating into a nuclear war.


Russia has accused the USA of “nuclear brinkmanship” and claimed it was violating arms control agreements.

Earlier this week, Russia formally revoked its ratification of the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty or CTBT. President Vladimir Putin said the non-proliferation treaty has become useless because it was never ratified by the US side since 1996. “Among the states that have not ratified the treaty, the most destructive position is that of the US, which has for many years declared that there would be no support for ratifying the treaty in Congress,” the Kremlin said in a statement.

Putin stressed that Russia would not carry out nuclear tests unless the USA does so first.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 301. Ukraine continues genocide policy in Donbass

November 9, 2023

Russia requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council for November 8, 2023 because of the strikes on Donetsk. Earlier on November 7, the shelling of the city by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) resulted in 20 casualties. The author of Ukraina.ru web site Anna Cherkasova interviewed Vladimir Kozin, Corresponding Member, Russian Academy of Military Science, Moscow. This is what he said.

Q: Vladimir Petrovych, why is there a Special Operation going on for almost a year, and we cannot protect Donbass from shelling?

A: From the first days of the Ukrainian-NATO aggression directed against the peaceful population of the five historical territories that became part of the Russian Federation by the will of their population, Moscow has been providing extensive armed counteraction to the barbaric shelling of homes and social and energy infrastructure facilities by the AFU with heavy and other types of weapons.

The shelling takes place practically every day and night. Several populated areas and certain districts of Donetsk and other cities are being shelled. On average, the Ukrainian armed forces use from 100 to 300 shells of various artillery systems and MLRS rockets. And the number of shelling itself reaches several times a day. The AFU widely uses anti-personnel mines and cluster munitions against civilians. Russian nuclear power plants have repeatedly been shelled.

As a result of such shelling, many civilians, including the elderly and children, have been killed.

The Russian Armed Forces cannot fully prevent all such actions due to the long length of the front line and the significant number of shells and missiles used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the range of which is constantly increasing.

Q: What is so special about the latest shelling that Russia is calling an urgent meeting of the United Nations Security Council?

The Russian side is constantly informing the international community about such criminal actions by the Ukrainian side. It indicates the exact locations of such shelling, the types of weapons used and, unfortunately, the casualties among civilians and the destruction of homes, hospitals, schools and energy facilities.

In the latest shelling, attention is drawn to the high number of civilian casualties and the targeted destruction of housing and social and energy infrastructure.

Russia's patience has come to an end.

All the more so because the Russian Armed Forces are not waging war on Ukrainian civilians, nor are they destroying their homes and similar life-support facilities, as discussed above.

Q: What is the point of appealing to the United Nations if we are not heard anyway and there is a real war of the West against Russia in Ukraine?

A: Russia has once again raised this issue with the UN. Such barbaric methods of Ukrainian-NATO aggression against the peaceful population of the designated five historical territories, which have become full-fledged subjects of the Russian Federation, must end. All the more so with the direct assistance of NATO countries and a number of non-aligned states.

Q: Which countries in the UNO can support Russia on the Donbass issue? What could this look like?

A: Moscow expresses its deep regret that some Member States of the United Nations are not paying attention to the war crimes of the Kyiv regime and its Western curators against the civilian population of Russia.

There is no doubt that the Russian side will once again express its condemnation of such inhuman and barbaric practices by Ukraine.

In addition, it will make a statement to the NATO countries that are in favor of continuing to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine. That will only make matters worse: the war crimes of the Kyiv leadership against Russian civilians will continue.

Russian citizens are increasingly demanding that the Russian military and political leadership severely punish these two sources of numerous and widespread misery and suffering among Russian civilians.


Some facts articulated by Russia at the UN Security Council meeting held on November 8, 2023:

Armed Forces of Ukraine made several attacks on November 7, 2023 in Donbass where six civilians have been killed and 55 people injured, including three children.

These attacks have been made by stages in order to kill more civilians. Th first attack took place at 4:25 pm – in the middle of the workday, when the Department of Labor and Social Protection traditionally has many visitors; at 4:40 pm – 15 minutes after the first strike, and still less than two hours later – at 6:27 pm.

Unfortunately, a doctor and an ambulance paramedic who had come to the rescue, as well as a traffic police officer, were killed, and 23 EMERCOM staff were wounded.

The terrorist practice of launching repeated strikes against the same location is part of the AFU playbook.

In addition to this, during the time of active combat action more than 20 cases of repeated shelling by the Ukrainian armed forces against emergency services rescuers and medics have been documented. More than 50 employees of the operational services fell victim to Ukrainian terror, and more than 200 were wounded.

Since February 2022, the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic alone has been subjected to more than 25,000 artillery and missile strikes by Ukrainian armed forces. A total of 145,000 shells fell in Donetsk area. More than 16,000 residential buildings and almost 3,500 civilian infrastructure facilities were destroyed and damaged, including about 700 educational and more than 200 medical institutions and more than 1,100 electricity, water, heat and gas supply facilities.

During that time, 4,755 civilians, including 140 children, were killed in the DPR. 5,360 persons, including 357 children, sustained injuries of varying severity.

Moreover, the terror against the population of Donbas did not begin in February 2022. Over the previous eight years, since May 2014, the Ukrainian authorities had carried out aggression against their own people, who did not accept the unconstitutional Maidan coup d'état in Kiev and stood up to defend their rights and freedoms. Troops were deployed against the civilian population. Aviation, heavy artillery and armored vehicles were used.

The total number of people killed and wounded in Donbass since 2014 exceeds 20,000 civilians.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 302. Depleted uranium in Ukraine: selfpoisoning

November 17,2023

1. The West poisons the West

Radiation safety threats associated with the use of depleted uranium (DU) shells by Ukrainian formations have significantly increased. This was stated by Secretary of the Russian national Security Council Nikolay Patrushev at a meeting on national security held in Voronezh city on 16 November, 2023.

According to him, Moscow has repeatedly warned about the disastrous consequences of the West's supplies of DU shells to Ukraine. "We have emphasized that their use will harm human health and nature for many decades, both in Ukraine and in Europe. Our warnings were not heeded," Patrushev stated.

As a result of the destruction of warehouses with DU shells supplied by the Anglo-Saxons in order to prevent their use against Russia, Europeans have been recording increased radiation in their countries for several months, he said,


"Last week, the European Committee on Radiation Risk noted an increase in the number of uranium particles in the air in southeastern England as a consequence of the movement of air masses from western Ukraine," the secretary of the Russian Security Council added.


In his opinion, this eloquently shows that the political elites of the Western countries supplying weapons to the Ukrainian regime are completely unconcerned about the safety and health of their own population.

2. Kiev may lose control over bioagents

According to Nikolay Patrushev, there is a high probability that the Ukrainian side will completely lose control over the biological agents that are still located on Ukrainian territory.


"Unauthorized access to collections of dangerous pathogens, destruction and looting of laboratory premises, as well as loss of biological samples cannot be ruled out. The probability of committing terrorist acts and sabotage with the use of biological agents has increased," the secretary of the Russian Security Council stated.


He also warned that under the conditions of continuing significant migration flows, including refugees and internally displaced persons from Ukraine, the risks of infectious diseases entering the territory of Russia are increasing.

Patrushev also drew attention to the fact that the United States continues to work actively within the framework of military biological programs to create artificial pathogens and microorganisms resistant to antibiotics, standard vaccines and traditional therapies.

In particular, he recalled that Washington has deployed a network of biolaboratories on the territory of Ukraine and other states bordering Russia. Among other things, they conduct military-biological research and experiments using biomaterials, including those taken from representatives of Slavic peoples.

As Patrushev noted, the actions of the Americans in placing bio-laboratories in close proximity to Russia's borders and expanding the range of military biological research undoubtedly create serious biological threats and require the development of effective measures to eliminate them.

"At the same time, under far-fetched pretexts, the Anglo-Saxons are hindering the creation of verification mechanisms within the framework of the Concept for the Prohibition of Biological and Toxin Weapons designed to bring under international control the biological activity of States Parties to the Convention," Patrushev stated.

3. Additional menace: radioactive waste

The Russian Foreign Ministry believes that the situation with the storage of hazardous radioactive waste in Ukraine is taking a dramatic and uncontriolled turn.


Indeed, the total amount of waste generated from the processing of uranium ores at the Prydniprovsky Chemical Plant located in the city of Kamenskoye (formerly Dniprodzerzhinsk) amounts to 42 million tons. There are several storage facilities and workshops with a total area of about 600 hectares for their storage at the plant and beyond, the MFA stated.


These wastes are a significant and dangerous source of environmental pollution. There is a high probability of about 12 million tons of radioactive waste entering the Dnieper River and groundwater as a result of possible scouring of the dam of one of the storage facilities located 800 meters from the river and its tributary Konoplyanka.

About 14 tons of radioactive dust is spread annually in the surrounding area, including on agricultural land.

Kiev does not allocate funding to ensure the environmental safety of the facilities of the Prydniprovsky Chemical Plant, which may eventually lead to an environmental disaster not only in the territory controlled by the Kiev regime, but also beyond its borders.

4.  Results on the battlefield on November 16, 2023


In total since the SMO began on February 24, 2022, 536 Ukrainian airplanes and 254 helicopters; 8,960 unmanned aerial vehicles; 441 air defence missile systems; 13,426 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles; 1,184 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS; 7,121 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 15,312 units of special military equipment have been destroyed.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 303. Ukrainian aggression: Situation on the battlefield

November 21, 2023

Army General Sergei Shoigu, Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation, made a statement at Defence Ministry Board Session on November 21, 2023

The Russian Group of Forces continue to engage in active defence, confidently hold positions along the entire line of contact, gradually improving the situation. The enemy units are continuously inflicted with a fire defeat that prevents AFU servicemen from moving forward.

All attempts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to conduct landing operations in Kherson direction were unsuccessful. Thanks to the preemptive and professional actions of Russian servicemen, Ukrainian Marines and Special Operations Forces of the Ukrainian troops suffer enormous losses.


Since the beginning of the month [November], the enemy has lost more than 13,700 people, about 1,800 units of various weapons and military equipment.


 Realising the futility of attempts to break through Russian defence, many Ukrainian servicemen surrender [as the POW].

 In turn, Russian servicemen courageously act in the most difficult conditions of the combat situation and effectively perform tasks. Russian troops continue to reduce the offensive potential of the enemy in all directions. …

Compared to the beginning of last year, there has been a 4.9-, 3-, and 16-fold increase in the scope of delivery of the main rocket and artillery weapons, armoured vehicles, and unmanned aerial vehicles to the Russian Armed Forces, respectively.

 There has been a 12-fold increase in supplying weapons, and a 5-fold increase in supplying precision long-range missiles.

 In the interests of the Special Military Operation, the tasks of the state defence order are updated regularly, two or three times a month, and the delivery of the necessary arms and hardware is monitored on a daily basis.

 With a twofold increase in the volume of funding for the state order in relation to the basic indicators, the plan for the current year will be fulfilled by at least 98 percent.


 As a result of the additional budget allocations in 2024, the procurement and repair of weapons and military hardware will also be on the rise.


 In the current situation, it is necessary to ensure the advance delivery of weapons, military and special hardware to the troops and to increase the production capacity of the defence industry enterprises to produce and repair the most demanded models.

 We must be proactive in modernising existing weapons and developing advanced weapons, and then testing them in the Special Military Operation.

 It remains a major task to maintain all components of the Strategic Nuclear forces in constant readiness. …

 Particular attention is being paid to building up naval strategic nuclear forces. The Navy has already received three of the latest Borei-A nuclear-powered submarine cruisers. The state trials of the strategic nuclear-powered submarine Imperator Aleksandr III, assigned to the Pacific Fleet, are about to finish.

The portion of current ships within the nuclear triad has reached 100%.

 In addition, the submarine force is to receive this year three modern multi-purpose boats equipped with the Kalibr missile systems.

 Another important mission is to build multi-mission ships with high-precision missile systems designed to defeat critical infrastructure and maritime targets, including aircraft carriers and surface action groups.

 The frigate Admiral Golovko, which is to be equipped with Zircon hypersonic missiles, is currently undergoing state trials.

By the end of the year, the number of long-range precision weapon carriers will exceed 40.

 During the Special Military Operation, modern missile weapons proved highly effective. More than 270 missile strikes were carried out, striking more than 330 targets. This year there has been a threefold increase in supplying missiles for the benefit of the Groups of Forces located in new historic Russian areas.

2. The USA has given a limited package of military aid to Ukraine

Washington has announced yet another military aid package for Ukraine worth around $100 million, after the Pentagon warned earlier this month that it was running critically low on funds allocated for Kiev and would soon be forced to begin reducing the tranches.

US National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby said that the US had spent about 96% of the funds that had been allocated for assistance to Ukraine. Kirby said a lack of further major assistance from the US would have a disastrous impact on Ukraine's defense capabilities.

“We have had to meter out our support for Ukraine,” deputy Defense Department spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters earlier this month, adding that, although the Pentagon will continue sending military aid packages, they are “getting smaller.”

Bloomberg reported on November 18, citing a survey of US Congress members, that Kiev would not receive new assistance from Washington until mid-December, possibly even until next year.

3. Ukraine needs more soldiers on the battlefield

Ukraine has maximized its mobilization, calling up for military service men aged 17 to 70 and also more women.

In October 2023, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said that the number of female military personnel in the country had increased by 40% over the past two years to almost 43,000.

Women occupy almost half of the civilian positions in the Ukrainian army (48.2%). About 5,000 are in the combat zone.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

 

Report # 304. NATO is for a wider war with Russia

 

November 26, 2023

 

1. NATO wants a wider war with Russia than the current one


Recently, a number of Western politicians and military men have increased their voices to begin much wider war with Russia than the current once conducted since April, 14, 2014 by Ukraine alone, and later unleashed together by Ukraine and NATO against Russia in 2022.


E.g. Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov at the European Parliament urged Europe to go to war with Russia.

Czech President Petr Pavel said at a meeting of the Visegrad Four that he was ready to attack Russia. In his opinion, Russia is losing its military capabilities due to the conflict in Ukraine. Therefore, Petr Pavel believes that it is high time that Europe should move to a "high-intensity conflict" against Russia right now.

According to German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, Germans need to get used to the idea of a clash with Russia. The goal for war preparations with Russia is included in the new German Defense Policy Guidelines.


NATO’s European JSEC or Joint Support and Enabling Command chief Lieutenant-General Alexander Sollfrank on November 21, 2023 has urged NATO to establish a “military Schengen” zone in Europe to allow for the rapid movement of troops, equipment, and ammunition with the aim to conduct a war with Russia.


The Command was established in 2021 by NATO to streamline preparations for a potential war with Russia. The JSEC HQ is located in the German town of Ulm.

Note: this NATO map does not mention several dozens of nuclear-capable F-35A already deployed in Europe

2. Massive Ukrainian UAV attacks vs Russia failed

An attempt of the Kiev regime to commit a terrorist attack against facilities on the territory of the Russian Federation was successfully prevented. The number of fixed-wing drones downed on November 26 climbed to 24.

Early in the morning on that day, the Russian Defense Ministry informed that all these drones over the territory of Moscow, Tula, Kaluga, and Bryansk Regions have been destroyed or downed by ECM. 18 more Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed in another areas, namely Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republic and in Kherson Region.

One person suffered minor wounds after a downed drone crashed into an apartment building in the Russian city of Tula, the regional Government said in a public statement.

3. Kiev made discriminatory statements against Russians living in Ukraine

Kiev allows for discriminatory statements against Russians living in Ukraine that are characteristic of a regime and not an authority, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in an interview on the Rossiya-1 federal TV Channel.

"This is the essence of the Kiev regime. This is why we call it the regime; it is telling that we call it the regime, because there can be no such statements from the normal leadership of the country. In the country where millions of Russians are living. Therefore, such statements can only be made under the regime," Peskov said, commenting on the statement of speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament Ruslan Stefanchuk that rights of the Russians in Ukraine should be impinged upon.

A number of Ukrainian politicians has intensified their ballyhoo by claiming that ”there are no Russian minorities in Ukraine”, though around 75 percent of the Ukrainian population still speak Russian. Some MPs proposed to ban Russian language completely, leaving only Ukrainian and English as two official languages in the country.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 305. Kiev’s counteroffensive casualties top 125,000

December 1, 2023

1. New data related to Ukrainian losses

Heavy troop losses and Western weapons did not help Ukraine achieve its goals, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has said during a ministerial meeting held in Moscow on December 1, 2023. In the six months since Kiev launched its push against Russian defensive lines, it has lost over 125,000 troops and 16,000 heavy weapons, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu added.

The Ukrainian Government and its Western backers had high expectations for the operation, for which the former’s army was provided with main battle tanks and other advanced arms. Ukrainian officials predicted that the push would help their country reclaim territory lost since major hostilities started in February 2022, and potentially launch an incursion into Crimea, which had broken away from Kiev in the wake of the 2014 armed coup backed by the USA that spent $10 bln by that time  – $ 5 bln from the State Deoartment and $ 5 bln more from  the US special services.

“Total mobilization in Ukraine, delivery of Western arms and deployment of strategic reserves by the Ukrainian command have not changed the situation on the battlefield,” the Russian minister reported. “Those desperate actions simply increased the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.”

As such, Kiev’s military has been “significantly degraded” while Russian forces are “taking a more advantageous position and widening the zone under their control on all fronts,” Shoigu added.

The most senior Ukrainian general, Valery Zaluzhny, reported in early November 2023 that the frontline situation had devolved into a “stalemate” and that Kiev’s side was unlikely to achieve a breakthrough unless some surprise technological development gave it a decisive edge over Moscow. But what kind of “surprise technological development” he meant, still it is a state secret that would never be revealed for only one reason. It does not exist at all.

2. Russia seized the initiative: has the Ukrainian aggression entered its endgame?

Six months after the start of Ukraine’s counteroffensive near Artemovsk [which Kiev calls Bakhmut], the operation completely collapsed and Russian troops were able to seize the initiative. Launching a series of attacks, Moscow's forces recovered some of the positions they had lost to the northwest of the city in the area of the Berkhovsky reservoir, and again took control over the line along the Artemovsk-Gorlovka railway on the southern flank, Vladislav Ugolny writes. He is a Russian journalist and military analyst, born in Donetsk. In the past, he served as a militia member of the Lugansk People's Republic.

In his words, the Ukrainian plan, which implied an offensive in at least three operational directions – towards Melitopol, Berdyansk and Artemovsk – failed. Instead of focusing on one task at a time, as Western experts had recommended, Kiev dispersed its forces and did not succeed in any of its goals. Now, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) has been forced to switch from offensive to defensive tactics. 

Ukraine’s initially ambitious plan to launch an offensive on Artemovsk implied taking action in at least four areas: from Chasov Yar towards Kleshcheyevka and further along the southern flank of Artemovsk; from Chasov Yar to the northern outskirts of Artemovsk, south of the Berkhovsky reservoir; from Slavyansk in the direction of Artemovsk and Soledar; and from Seversk towards Soledar.

However, this plan did not succeed because of the lack of numbers and the timely transfer of Russian units, which replaced PMC Wagner fighters involved in the final battles for Artemovsk. Attacks from the directions of Slavyansk and Seversk failed, while the assault on the city’s northern flank was only partially successful –  the Ukrainian Army advanced several kilometers and exhausted its offensive potential.

Based on information provided by its sources at the front, in October and November  2023 DeepState reported that the Ukrainian Army had retreated from its positions. By November 24, 2023 the Russians had practically returned to their starting points, once again threatening to take control over the villages of Bogdanovka and Khromove.

In reality, however, the Ukrainians were not able to beat the Russian Army, which was strong enough to carry out both a localized offensive on the border between the Lugansk People’s Republic and Kharkov Region this summer, and the offensive on Avdeevka in October, 2023.

3. Putin remembered ‘outstanding’ Kissinger

Condolences have been pouring in from foreign leaders and dignitaries after veteran US diplomat Henry Kissinger passed away at the age of 100 last Wednesday. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said it was thanks to the American statesman that the world became a safer place back in the 1970s despite the intense rivalry between the USA and the Soviet Union.

In a letter to Nancy Kissinger published on the Kremlin’s website on Thursday, Putin wrote that an “outstanding diplomat, a wise and far-sighted statesman has passed away.” He added that the former US secretary of state, who served from 1973 to 1977 under Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, was considered an authority on international relations the world over.

According to Putin, Kissinger played a major role in shaping a “pragmatic foreign policy line that… helped to diffuse international tensions [and] arrive at key Soviet-American agreements, which were conducive to strengthening global security.”

The Russian president recalled that he had met with “this extraordinary man” on multiple occasions and that Kissinger would always hold a special place in his heart. The Russian president has described the late statesman as “far-sighted” and “wise”.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

 

 

Report # 306. Zelensky demands extra $ 300-400 bln for defense

December 5, 2023

1. Ukrainian President Zelensky demands additional money from the USA and NATO

According to the announcement released by Russian federal Chanel One on December 5, 2023, president Zelensky who proved to be inefficient in continuing a wide-scale aggression together with NATO against Russia demanded extra ‘blood’ money from the USA and NATO. Will such a huge money bag that is around 3-4 times as much as it has been already spent during nearly 700 days of Ukrainian/NATO aggression against Ukrainians and Russians be helpful?  Seemingly, not.

This amount will be spent for a nationwide fortified defense up to the Western border of Ukraine, and for occasional attacks of the Russian Armed Forces that during last summer and autumn have managed to consolidate their positions along the 1,300 km frontline and went further deep into the Ukrainian territory.


The overall package will include $ 300-400 billion and 17 mln pieces of various shells and missiles with many of them being used against civilians in Donbass and Novorossiya (in the latter case it includes Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions).


Such Kiev’s demand made in very strong voice of Zelensky who is losing his authority and ability to rule efficiently has been already weakened in favor of General Valery Zaluzhny, his immediate rival in military affairs. The Ukrainian corruption practice will swallow the bulk of these finance. And it cannot be paid back by the current ultranationalist regime in Kiev and succeeding generations of Ukrainians.

Zelensky is bypassing General Zaluzhny, the country’s top military leader, to give orders directly to commanders, the Ukrainskaya Pravda news outlet reported on December 4, 2023, citing sources close to the leadership in Kiev.

Zaluzhny sometimes only learns of what the military is doing from his subordinates, the report claimed. Zelensky and the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces have been at loggerheads for months, and Kiev’s failed summer counteroffensive has worsened the tensions, according to insiders.

The president has created “parallel tracks” of communication with senior military leaders, including Aleksandr Syrsky, commander of the ground forces, and Nikolay Oleshchuk, commander of the air force, the report added. Zelensky’s office is said to find this convenient, but the practice has disrupted the normal chain of command, much to Zaluzhny’s chagrin.


No doubt, that the continuation of the Ukrainian/NATO aggression that initiated by Kiev in April 2014 will inevitably prolong the agony of the current regime. Its fate is doomed.


General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the time, advised the Ukrainians to also send sabotage groups into the Russian rear, saying there “should be no Russian who goes to sleep without wondering if they’re going to get their throat slit in the middle of the night,” according to one official. I strongly recommend to all Russian military officials not to talk to any US military counterparts after such barbaric statement.

Moscow will continue its offensives. There is a very firm belief of the Russian Federation. Like in the past, all aggressors will be punished.

2. Recent figures of losses amongst civilians in the DPR

According to the Donetsk People’s Republic or the DPR officials, between February 17, 2022 till November 27, 2023, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have killed 4,754 civilians in the DPR alone, including 151 children. 5,487 civilians, including 367 children, have been injured.

Since the beginning of the Ukrainian aggression in April 2014 till November 2023, totally 9,128 civilians have been killed by AFU and 13,306 civilians have been injured. Amongst them 232 children have been killed, and 836 have been injured.


Many of them have been killed and injured by the US and NATO weapons. This will be unforgettable in Russia.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 308. Putin’s high popularity: new figures

December, 10, 2023

1. Putin’s prestige is growing: updated figures

President Vladimir Putin is trusted by more than 78 percent of Russian citizens, according to the results of a VTsIOM public opinion poll.

The survey showed that 78.5 percent of respondents have confidence in the Russian leader, while only 17.3 percent do not.

In addition, 75.8 percent of respondents said they approve of Putin's activities, while only 14.8 percent disapprove.

For the sake of comparison: Olaf Scholts’s popularity went down to 20 percent.

The VTsIOM-Sputnik initiative all-Russian poll was conducted between November 27- December 3, 2023, among 1,600 respondents over the age of 18

Several public figures and politicians have already announced their intent to run for the presidency next year. Independent candidates must collect at least 300,000 signatures from their backers to file a bid, while those nominated by registered parties must gather at least 100,000. Candidates nominated by parties represented in the country’s Parliament are exempt from the signature-gathering requirement.

History: Vladimir Putin was elected Russia’s president in the year 2000 and served two four-year terms until 2008. Although presidential terms in the country were technically unlimited at the time, an individual could only serve two consecutive terms.

He subsequently became prime minister under Dmitry Medvedev, who was Russia’s president between 2008 and 2012. During Medvedev’s tenure, the presidential term was extended to six years.Putin has remained Russia’s president since 2012 and is currently serving his second six-year term after being reelected in 2018.

However, under an amendment Putin’s terms before the constitutional makeover were “nullified,” effectively enabling him to run for office in 2024 – and in 2030 – should he so desire.

Please, make a correction in Report # 307 released on December 8, 2023, in item 1. It should be read as: “…According to a poll that the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM) released on December 7, 2023 about 70% of Russian citizens believe that Putin should run for another term in office, with another 15% saying that the incumbent should leave his current post but take a senior Government position. Eight percent believe that the Russian leader should leave the political stage altogether.

Putin’s chances for his re-election are very high”.

2. These US deadly weapons were aimed to kill Russian military and civilians. To be remembered in Washington, DC, that Russia will never forget these NATO/EU ‘gifts of death’ to Ukrainian aggressors

For Air Defense: One Patriot air defense battery and munitions;12 National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and munitions; HAWK air defense systems and munitions;AIM-7, RIM-7, and AIM-9M missiles for air defense; more than 2,000 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles; Avenger air defense systems; VAMPIRE counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) and munitions; c-UAS gun trucks and ammunition; mobile c-UAS laser-guided rocket systems; other c-UAS equipment; anti-aircraft guns and ammunition; equipment to integrate Western launchers, missiles, and radars with Ukraine’s systems; equipment to support and sustain Ukraine’s existing air defense capabilities; equipment to protect critical national infrastructure; and 21 air surveillance radars.

For fires: 39 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and ammunition; Ground-Launched Small Diamet   er Bomb launchers and guided rockets;198 155mm Howitzers and more than 2,000,000 155mm artillery rounds; more than 7,000 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds; more than 30,000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems; 72 105mm Howitzers and more than 800,000 105mm artillery rounds;10,000 203mm artillery rounds; more than 200,000 152mm artillery rounds; approximately 40,000 130mm artillery rounds; 40,000 122mm artillery rounds; 60,000 122mm GRAD rockets; 47 120mm mortar systems; 10 82mm mortar systems; 112 81mm mortar systems; 58 60mm mortar systems; more than 400,000 mortar rounds; more than 70 counter-artillery and counter-mortar radars; and 20 multi-mission radars.

For ground maneuver: 31 Abrams tanks; 45 T-72B tanks; 186 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles; four Bradley Fire Support Team vehicles; 189 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers; 300 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers; 250 M1117 Armored Security Vehicles; more than 500 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPs); more than 2,000 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs); more than 200 light tactical vehicles; 300 armored medical treatment vehicles; 80 trucks and 124 trailers to transport heavy equipment; More than 800 tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment; 131 tactical vehicles to recover equipment; 10 command post vehicles; 30 ammunition support vehicles; 18 armored bridging systems; Eight logistics support vehicles and equipment; 239 fuel tankers and 105 fuel trailers; 58 water trailers; six armored utility trucks; 125mm, 120mm, and 105mm tank ammunition; more than 1,800,000 rounds of 25mm ammunition; and mine clearing equipment.

For aircraft and unmanned aerial systems: 20 Mi-17 helicopters; Switchblade Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS); Phoenix Ghost UAS; CyberLux K8 UAS; Altius-600 UAS; Jump-20 UAS; Hornet UAS; Puma UAS; Scan Eagle UAS;Penguin UAS; Two radars for UAS; high-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs); Precision aerial munitions; more than 6,000 Zuni aircraft rockets; more than 20,000 Hydra-70 aircraft rockets; and Munitions for UAS.

in the area of anti-armor and small arms: more than 10,000 Javelin anti-armor systems; more than 90,000 other anti-armor systems and munitions; more than 8,000 Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles; more than 35,000 grenade launchers and small arms; more than 400,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades; laser-guided rocket systems and munitions; rocket launchers and ammunition; and anti-tank mines.

For maritime: two Harpoon coastal defense systems and anti-ship missiles; 62 coastal and riverine patrol boats; Unmanned Coastal Defense Vessels.

3. Ukrainians GIs die for the US commercial profits

Kiev needs to understand that Washington earns billions on the war in Ukraine while ordinary Ukrainians die, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov pointed out at a press conference on December 8.

Peskov was speaking a day after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken admitted that the overwhelming majority of Kiev’s monetary aid had been spent in the US. “90% of the security assistance we’ve provided has actually been spent here in the United States with our manufacturers,” he said at a briefing alongside UK Foreign Minister David Cameron. “So, this has also been a win-win that we need to continue.”

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev suggested on X (formerly Twitter) that the USA is not motivated by a desire to help Ukraine, but rather by “the enormous profit that the companies close to the Biden administration get from it.” 

The administration of US President Joe Biden has been wrestling with Republican lawmakers in the past few weeks to push through another supplemental budget request of $111 billion, of which more than half is intended for Ukraine.

4. Ukraine cannot protect itself

Ukraine has lost more than 1,560 soldiers in the Donetsk direction over the past week, the Russian Defense Ministry said on December 8,2023.

Over the given period, the Russian Armed Forces or RAF have repelled 19 attacks by Ukrainian troops in the Kupyansk direction and 18 attacks in the Donetsk direction.

“The total losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces [in the Donetsk direction] amounted to more than 1,560 military personnel, 12 armored combat vehicles, 17 vehicles and 22 field artillery guns," the ministry said in a statement.

Kiev has also lost nearly 1,500 soldiers in the Krasny Liman area, nearly 900 soldiers in the South Donetsk direction, up to 350 soldiers in the Kherson direction and up to 260 soldiers in the Zaporozhye sector.

RAF have intensified pin-point attacks on Ukrainian military depots, gasoline  storage cites and ammunition warehouses. Airfields have become as first-rate targets.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 309. The fate of the Kiev regime. A predicament

December, 12, 2023

1. The fate of the current regime in Kiev

The puppet regime in Kiev will inevitably be abandoned by its overseas masters in the end, Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergey Naryshkin said.

"The puppet regime in Kiev, which is alien to the majority of Ukrainians, and which has perpetrated bloody massacres in Donbass, in Odessa and in many other towns and villages of Ukraine, will eventually and inevitably be abandoned by its overseas masters," he said at a roundtable discussion devoted to the study of Ukrainian propaganda and efforts to fight against it.

The intelligence chief also emphasized that Russians and Ukrainians are two parts of a single nation composed of three peoples, which also include Belarusians. "Despite the seriously changed circumstances, I mean the aggression of the Western bloc against Russia, in which Ukraine is involved, I hold to the same positions on this issue, namely that Russians and Ukrainians are two parts of a triune [composed of three parts nation], the history of which goes back centuries," Naryshkin emphasized.

Looking back into the past, he said, it can be said that, "the only historical purpose of Ukrainian nationalism is to turn Ukraine into a weapon against" Russia.

Naryshkin also noted that historians are well aware that "many former Nazi criminals found safe haven in the United States and Canada" after the war. "The Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists established there became a direct successor of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists [note: OUN, banned in Russia] of the followers of [Stepan] Bandera and the founder of the notorious extremist organizations ‘Stepan Bandera Trident’ and ‘Right Sector’ [note: both banned in Russia]," he added. "Systematic work for shaping the ideological basis for a future neo-Nazi revenge has been going on for decades. For example, the first attempt to label the famine in the Soviet Union in the early 1930s as a deliberate genocide of the Ukrainian people was made in 1985 by a specially created commission of the US Congress," he pointed out.

Naryshkin, who also serves as chairman of the Russian Historical Society, stressed that today Russia has gained significant experience in countering this pernicious lie.

"A lot of work is being done by the Russian Culture Ministry’s museum group, created at the initiative of the Russian Historical Society. And in the first months of the Special Military Operation [or SMO], employees of museums and higher educational institutions collected trophy materials, on the basis of which they organized exhibitions throughout the country," he added.

Naryshkin noted that work for the formal study of the history of the SMO was commenced on the orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Prior to the roundtable event, Naryshkin toured an exhibition of Ukrainian propaganda publications, school textbooks and children's encyclopedias, which was opened in the Russian Historical Society House as part of the event. According to the Russian Historical Society, the publications were collected in the zone of the SMO. The exhibition included books glorifying infamous Nazi collaborators Stepan Bandera and Roman Shukhevich, as well as the crimes of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists-Ukrainian Insurgent Army – organizations that have been banned in Russia.

Alternatives to Zelensky were discussed on the sidelines of 2023 November’s meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers in Brussels, according to Naryshkin. Potential options purportedly include the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Aarmed Forces, Valery Zaluzhny, military intelligence chief Kirill Budanov, the head of the president’s office, Andrey Ermak, or even Kiev mayor and ex-boxer Vitaly Klitschko.

Will this move change the political climate and military atmosphere in Ukraine? I believe that it will not. It is on one hand.

On the other – Ukraine will continue to be a country with no money, no industry, no agriculture and no democracy and with ‘zero’ political and social freedoms.

Russia will not let Kiev to terminate all Russians and Ukrainians on Russian historic lands located in the former Ukraine. The loadstar goal aimed at demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine remains ironclad.

2. My personal note

Dear Colleagues,

Due to my retirement from MGIMO University I have to announce that I will cease posting my Reports I have begun upon my own initiative and without any censorship in order to share with you some additional information you probably will not be able to find in some other sources. Report # 309 is the final one. I have got another challenging assignment that I am going to bring about with my dedication and commitment.

I am deeply regret that the ruling elites in NATO and the EU countries have selected a failed and ultranationalist Ukraine as their aggressive tool and canalized it against its own people living in Donbass, later in Novorossya and Russia as a whole state that really wanted to maintain friendly relations and mutually beneficial commercial and cultural ties and people-to-people contacts with all Western nations since 1991 – the year when the Soviet Union ended its existence.

I hope that all my 309 Reports you have got have been helpful to you in certain way. During their distribution process I have found more people to receive them, rather than those who asked me not to send them anymore.

Thank you for reading these Reports and asking me to clarify some issues.

 

I wish all of you peaceful 2024 year and stable prosperity to your families and friends.

 

Kind regards,

Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

 

Report # 31. Military operation in Ukraine: stage one is over, stage two is intensified

March 30, 2022

1. General assessment

The Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation, General of the Army Sergei Shoigu, on March 29th announced the major results of the military operation in Ukraine.

At the beginning of the meeting, he spoke about the course of a special military operation of the Russian Armed Forces on the territory of Ukraine. According to him, in general, the main tasks of the first stage of the operation have been completed. The combat potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been significantly reduced, which makes it possible to focus the main attention and main efforts on achieving the main goal - the liberation of Donbass.

"Significant damage has been inflicted on the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Sergei Shoigu said. Air supremacy has been won. The Air Force and the air defence system have been practically destroyed. Of the 152 aircraft that were in the Armed Forces of Ukraine before the start of the operation, 123 were destroyed, 77 out of 149 helicopters, 152 out of 180 long- and medium-range air defence systems. The Naval Forces of the country ceased to exist. All formations of land and airborne assault troops suffered significant losses."

"We are monitoring the statements of the leaders of individual NATO countries about their intention to supply aircraft and air defence systems to Ukraine," the minister said. – If they are implemented, we will respond adequately. We consider the position of the West, which supplies lethal weapons to Ukraine, irresponsible. Its uncontrolled distribution to the population and mercenaries only aggravates the situation and in the future may pose a threat to the Europeans themselves."

Further, Sergei Shoigu spoke about the consequences of the thoughtless use of certain weapons by the Ukrainian army manifested in various regions. Thus, a real threat to civilian shipping lines has been created in the Black Sea. The Turkish military has already neutralized two sea mines off the coast of Romania and the Bosphorus Strait.

Targeted actions to track and destroy foreign mercenaries are continuing. As a result of high-precision weapons strikes on mercenary training centers, as well as combat losses, a decrease in their number on the territory of Ukraine is recorded. Over the past two weeks, more than 500 mercenaries have left the country and about 600 mercenaries have been eliminated.

Humanitarian aid is actively provided to the population of the LPR and DPR, as well as Ukraine. 684 humanitarian actions have already been carried out. 6079 tons of cargo were delivered to 210 settlements.

"The Russian Armed Forces will continue a special military operation until the set goals are achieved," Sergei Shoigu said. - I emphasize that the planned combat training does not stop in the troops. I demand that commanders at all levels ensure strict and accurate implementation of the planned operational and combat training measures."

2. Stage two: major goal is regrouping

On March 30th Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, developing an offensive, have broken through the heavily fortified defences of the enemy, crossed the Shaitanka River and are fighting with units of the 53rd Mechanised Brigade on the approaches to Velikaya Novoselka.

A mop-up of nationalist formations is underway in Zolotaya Niva. The advance was 8 kilometers. Up to 50 personnel, 3 tanks, 5 IFVs and 8 vehicles of various purposes were destroyed in this area.

Units of the Lugansk People's Republic continue their offensive on Severodonetsk. Fighting to mop-up Zhytlovka settlement is underway.

Ukrainian nationalist battalions in Severodonetsk direction suffer serious losses. As a result of the disruption of transport links, possibilities to replenish them are blocked. During the day, over 50 nationalists, 2 tanks, 3 IFVs and 2 missile and artillery depots were destroyed in this area.

Planned regrouping of troops in Kiev and Chernigov directions was underway.

The first stage of the special military operation conducted by the Russian Armed Forces in Donbas and Ukraine was planned to force the enemy to concentrate its forces, means, resources and military equipment to hold on to high populated areas in these directions, including Kiev. To bring them down on the battlefield and, without storming these cities to avoid civilian casualties, inflict such a defeat on the armed formations of the Kiev regime that it would not be able to use these forces in the main direction of our Armed Forces in Donbass.

All these goals have been met.

At the same time, the Russian army also solved another task, namely - in the absence of an inflow of fresh enemy forces from the western and central regions of Ukraine, through professional military action, using the absolute air supremacy it has gained, also using hi-tech high-precision weapons - to create all the necessary conditions for the final stage of the operation to liberate completely the People's Republics of Donbass (so far 60 percent of it has been liberated).

To this end, the long-term defensive fortifications created by the Kiev regime over eight years have been, and continue to be, continuously targeted. All major lines of communication, supply and reserve approach are taken under full control. Ukraine's air defence systems, airfield infrastructure, major military depots, training and mercenary concentration centres have been destroyed.

Thus, all the main tasks of the Russian Armed Forces in Kiev and Chernigov directions have been completed.

Over the past day, air defenсe means of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down 2 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Balakleya and Verkhnetoretskoe.

Operational-tactical and army aviation hit 69 military assets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Among them: 3 command posts, 2 multiple launch rocket system, 8 ammunition and missile-artillery weapons depots and 52 areas of military equipment concentration.

In total, from February 24th, 2022 124 aircraft and 77 helicopters, 323 unmanned aerial vehicles, 1,767 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 186 multiple launch rocket systems, 741 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,657 special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were, destroyed during the operation.

3. U.S.-Ukrainian biolabs’ investigation

The Russian Defence Ministry continues to study documents received from employees of Ukrainian laboratories about secret military biological activities of the United States in Ukraine.

A study of the new material by Russian experts of the Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Protection Troops identified specific officials who had been involved in the creation of the biological weapons components.

These are the heads of units and staff of the U.S. Department of Defense, as well as its main contracting companies. As the ongoing journalistic investigations in the Western press show, these campaigns were directly linked to the son of the current U.S. president, Hunter Biden.

As a result of the special military operation, research in a number of Ukrainian bio-laboratories, where work with strains of particularly dangerous pathogens was being carried out on behalf of the Pentagon, has been stopped.

A number of documents obtained from these laboratories, however, reveal the concealment of the test subjects' identities and the serious risk to their lives.

Of particular interest are documents indicating that the Kiev regime's plans to use drones capable of carrying and dispersing lethal substances. The revealed facts prove that the Kiev regime was seriously considering the use of biological weapons against the population of Donbass, and the Russian Federation.

Russian MoD will provide more details on the results of the analysis of the documents received and the facts revealed at a special briefing in the near future.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 32. Kiev continues to neglect humanitarian law

1. The humanitarian situation deteriorates rapidly

The humanitarian situation in a number of settlements controlled by official Kiev continues to deteriorate rapidly, while the most critical situation today is in Kharkov.

A curfew has been imposed in the city. Local residents, fearing provocations from the nationalists, are forced to hide in basements. Many houses do not have heat, light or gas, and utility services do not carry out restoration work. In hospitals, the civilian population is denied medical care, only the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) servicemen and territorial defence fighters are treated. Vital medicines are not available in pharmacies. Grocery stores work two to three hours a day, there are practically no customers in them, since many people simply ran out of money. The men who remain in the city do not leave their homes – they are afraid that they will be forcibly taken to territorial defence battalions. Only women and the elderly get out on the streets.

On the phone and in social networks, people try not to communicate and are careful in their statements, because the Special Service of Ukraine (SSU) conducts mass arrests of civilians. Only for the supposedly good attitude towards Russia, people are taken away and they do not return.

Nationalists continue to use the proven tactics of placing heavy military equipment in residential areas. The militants are guided by a direct order from Kiev – to use any property and equipment of the civilian population they need, to enter apartments and equip firing points in them, and at the slightest disagreement of the owners – to shoot them on the spot.

Residents of the city are blocked by neo-Nazis, are being held hostage by militants as a "human shield", they cannot leave through humanitarian corridors, and their private cars are subjected to small arms and mortar fire.

Terrorists from nationalist battalions have created so-called "flying death squads," which, in high-performance cars forcibly seized from civilians and converted into "bander-mobiles," drive around the city streets and randomly fire large-caliber machine guns at apartment buildings in order to intimidate civilians.

Immediate decisions aimed at stabilizing the humanitarian situation are required to save the residents of the city (see PPT slides attached separately).

Russia appeals to the leaders of the United Nations, OSCE, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other international organizations and urge them to use the authority and potential of these organizations to force the Kiev authorities to fulfill their humanitarian obligations not only in Kharkov, but also in other settlements of Ukraine.

Despite the indifference of the Kiev authorities to the fate of hundreds of thousands of peaceful compatriots, the Russian Federation continues purposeful and coordinated work to evacuate the local population and foreign citizens to safe areas, and also carries out a set of measures to provide humanitarian assistance to the population in the territories of Ukraine liberated from neo-Nazis.

Since March 4th, 2022, for these purposes, humanitarian corridors have been opened daily from 10:00AM by the Russian side in the Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov and Mariupol directions – one humanitarian corridor to the Russian Federation, and one more through the territories controlled by the Kiev authorities towards the western borders of Ukraine.

The Ukrainian authorities for the current day additionally announced four more routes in the Zaporozhye direction.

Pursuing exclusively humane principles, despite the cruelty and cynicism of the Kiev authorities towards their citizens, categorically not allowing any attempts to evacuate to the Russian Federation, and solely to save the lives of civilians in all possible ways, Russia agreed to the proposals of the Ukrainian side without any additional conditions.

The Armed Forces of Russia, the formations of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics strictly observe the ceasefire on all routes, including those declared by the Ukrainian side.

In addition, the Russian Armed Forces, exclusively for humanitarian purposes, from 10:00AM on March 31st, 2022, declare a ceasefire and open an additional humanitarian corridor for the evacuation of civilians and foreign citizens from Mariupol to Zaporozhye (with an intermediate point in Berdyansk). For the successful implementation of this humanitarian operation, it is proposed to conduct it with the direct participation of representatives of the office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees and the International Committee of the Red Cross.

At the same time, Russia informed that at present the section of the route from Berdyansk to Mariupol is systematically exposed to the fire of the AFU units and nationalist battalions from mortars and heavy machine guns.

Russia demands that the Kiev authorities strictly fulfill the following conditions for the creation of a humanitarian corridor: guarantee unconditional observance of the ceasefire at the set time, notify the Russian side in writing by 06:00 on March 31, 2022, as well as representatives of the office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees and the International Committee of the Red Cross; to ensure the safe movement of bus convoys along the agreed route, especially on the Berdyansk - Mariupol area, where there is a high intensity of actions by sabotage and reconnaissance groups of neo-Nazi militants, aimed at carrying out provocations against humanitarian convoys.

In turn, the Russian side undertakes to open a humanitarian corridor after receiving from the Ukrainian authorities an official written statement of readiness to fulfill the above conditions and confirmation by means of objective control of the situation, including the use of unmanned aerial vehicles, of the actual ceasefire.

Over the past day, without the participation of the Kiev authorities, 20,495 people were evacuated to Russia from dangerous areas of Ukraine, Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, of which 3,384 children, and in total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 509,425 people have already been evacuated, of which 104,807 are children. 111,865 people have already been rescued from Mariupol, including 3,063 people over the past day.

62,382 units of personal vehicles crossed the state border of the Russian Federation, of which 2,534 units per day.

According to the results of daily monitoring of requests by citizens of Ukraine to the hotline of the Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for humanitarian response in Ukraine to federal executive authorities, various public organizations, as well as to the subjects of the Russian Federation to their families, relatives and acquaintances living in Russia, it was established that a significant part of the population forcibly held by nationalists in Ukrainian cities, still seek any opportunity to evacuate to Russian territory.

Over the past day alone, 1,674 such requests have been received, and there are already 2,734,079 of them in the database with specific surnames and addresses already from 2,118 settlements in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian nationalists continue to hold hostage as a "human shield" over 4.5 million civilians in Kiev, Kharkov, Chernigov, Sumy, Mariupol and more than two dozen other large settlements, as well as 6,476 citizens from 19 foreign countries.

The Ukrainian Nazis destroyed about fifty churches of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate during a special operation of Russia. The Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Security Forces fire at religious institutions or equip military facilities in them. In addition, they are holding churchmen hostage. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate is under very serious threat.

Donetsk lacks potable water: it is delivered only two hours per 24 hours. The reason: Ukrainian nationalist battalions destroyed water supply system, and by its continues shelling prevent to repair it.

2. Russian humanitarian aid is expanding

In the regions of the Russian Federation, more than 9.5 thousand temporary accommodation facilities continue to function normally. They are equipped with everything necessary, there are places for rest and hot meals. Individual work is carried out with arriving refugees, they are provided with qualified medical and psychological assistance.

There are enough buses at the checkpoints to transport people to their chosen places of residence or to temporary accommodation.

The federal executive authorities, together with the subjects of the Russian Federation, various public organizations and patriotic movements, continue to accumulate humanitarian aid.

The largest contribution to the provision of assistance was made by:

EMERCOM of Russia, Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, federal agency for state reserves, federal service for state registration, cadaster and cartography, federal agency for nationalities; the Republics of Buryatia and Tatarstan, the Arkhangelsk, Moscow, Tula, Voronezh, Krasnodar and Rostov regions; among political parties and non-commercial organizations - United Russia, all-Russian public movement People's Front, all-Russian public organization of veterans Battle Brotherhood, autonomous non-commercial organization of support of humanitarian programs Russian humanitarian mission, all-Russian public organization Boxing Federation of Russia, all-Russian public organization Union of Armenians of Russia and all-Russian public and state organization Union of Women of Russia.

Over 22.5 thousand tons of food, medicines and basic necessities have been prepared at the collection points.

Since March 2nd, the Russian Federation has already delivered 6,521.3 tons of humanitarian supplies to Ukraine, 703 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 19 in the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, Zaporozhye, Kiev, Chernigov, Kharkov and Kherson regions over the past day, during which 443 tons of basic necessities, food and medicines were transferred to the civilian population.

On March 30th, 2022, 14 humanitarian actions are being held in the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, Kiev and Kherson regions, during which 308 tons of basic necessities and food are being transferred to the population.

3. Commercial shipping lines are under threat

More than 60 foreign vessels continue to be blocked in Ukrainian ports. The threat of shelling and high mine danger created by official Kiev in its internal waters and territorial sea do not allow ships to safely go to the open sea. Kiev threatens them that they will be attacked if they leave Ukrainian sea ports.

Every day from 08:00 to 19:00 (Moscow time), the Russian Armed Forces open a humanitarian corridor, which is a safe lane in the south-west direction from the territorial sea of Ukraine, with a length of 80 and a width of 3 nautical miles.

At the same time, the Ukrainian side, as before, does not confirm the readiness to ensure the safety of the exit of foreign vessels to the assembly area and in every possible way avoids cooperation in resolving this issue.

Once again, Russia calls on the International Maritime Organization and the management of ship owner’s companies to influence official Kiev to take measures aimed at unblocking and ensuring the safety of the exit of foreign vessels from the ports of Ukraine.

There is still a threat of drifting of Ukrainian mines torn from their anchors along the coast of the Black Sea states. By now 10 of them are drifting in the Black Sea.

The Russian Federation is taking a full range of comprehensive measures to ensure civil navigation in the waters of the Black, Azov and Mediterranean Seas.

4. Situation at the battlefields

The units of the Russian Armed Forces, continuing their offensive, took complete control of Zolotaya Niva, crossed Kashlagach River and occupied an advantageous position.

The advance was 6 kilometers. Up to 60 Ukrainian nationalists, 2 tanks, 4 infantry fighting vehicles, 9 vehicles for various purposes were destroyed.

Units of the Lugansk People's Republic, having completed the mopping-up of Zhitlovka, have advanced 5 kilometers and are fighting with nationalists on the outskirts of Kremennaya.

On the evening of March 30, high-precision air-based cruise missiles destroyed large fuel bases in Dnepropetrovsk, Lisichansk, Chuguev and Novomoskovsk, from which fuel was supplied to the Ukrainian military grouping in Donbass.

During the day, operational-tactical and army aviation hit 52 military assets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Among them: 4 command posts, 1 S-300 anti-aircraft missile system south of Izyum and 1 Buk-M1 near Kurakhovo, 2 multiple launch rocket systems, 1 ammunition and missile-artillery weapons depot, 2 fuel depots and 38 strongholds and areas of military equipment concentration.

Russian air defence means shot down 18 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the area of Balakleya, Verbovoye, Verhnetoretskoe, Dokuchaevsk, Korolevka, Komarin, Opytnoe, Pavlovka, Repki, Chernigov, Chernobyl and Shchors, including 1 Bayraktar-TB2 near Bezymyannoe.

In total, from February 24th, 2022, 124 aircraft and 77 helicopters, 341 unmanned aerial vehicles, 1,815 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 195 multiple launch rocket systems, 762 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,689 of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.

 

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Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 33. The U.S. biolabs in Ukraine: key actors are identified

 

April, 1st, 2022

1. More facts on the U.S. biolabs are found

The Russian Defence Ministry continues to study materials on the implementation of military biological programs conducted by the USA and its NATO allies on the territory of Ukraine.

Earlier, the diagram of the interaction of government agencies and the current military-political leadership of the United States with Ukrainian biological facilities has been made public (see PPT slide). In particular, the involvement of the Investment Fund, headed by Hunter Biden, in financing biological programs in Ukraine was noted.

Here is the correspondence of the son of the current U.S. President Joseph Biden with employees of the Threat Reduction Agency of the US Department of Defence and Pentagon contractors in Ukraine. The presence of these materials is confirmed by Western media.

The content of the letters shows that Hunter Biden played an important role in creating a financial opportunity to work with pathogens on the territory of Ukraine, providing funds for the companies Black and Veatch and Metabiota.

The published correspondence shows that the true goals of the Pentagon in Ukraine are far from scientific. So, in one of the letters, the vice president of Metabiota notes that the company's activities will be aimed at ensuring "... cultural and economic independence of Ukraine from Russia ...", which is quite strange for a biotech company.

Russia announced the names of specific officials who took part in the creation of biological weapons components on the territory of Ukraine.

One of the key figures is Robert Pope, at that time an employee of DTRA and director of the Joint Threat Reduction Program, whose goal was to involve the states of the post–Soviet space in military biological activities. He is also the author of the idea of creating a central depository of especially dangerous microorganisms in Kiev.

In his letter to the Minister of Health Ulyana Suprun (by the way, US citizens) Pope highly appreciates the activities of the head of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, especially noting the provision of admission of American specialists to Ukrainian biological objects and the beginning of work on the formation of a depository of microorganisms.

Let me remind you how this activity ended: according to the available information, all pathogenic biomaterials from the storage in early February 2022 were transported by military transport aircraft to the United States via Odessa.

The coordination of military biological projects in Ukraine and the selection of performers was led by Joanna Wintrol, head of the DTRA office in Ukraine. Under her direct supervision, American projects UP-4, UP- 6, UP - 8 were implemented to study deadly pathogens, including anthrax, Congo-Crimean fever, leptospirosis.

In continuation - the Ukrainian division of the company Black and Veatch, which is headed by Lance Lippencott. He is also the main contact person for officials of the Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of Health of Ukraine.

The company has been working in the interests of the Pentagon since 2008 as part of projects to study potentially dangerous bioagents. Among them is the UP-1 project on the study of rickettsias and tick-borne encephalitis virus in arthropods in the north-west of Ukraine. In order to globally monitor the biological situation during the UP-2 project, the company implemented a remote monitoring system for the incidence of tularemia and anthrax at Ukrainian biological facilities.

The issues of biomonitoring and information transmission were supervised by David Mustra, who is closely associated with another Pentagon contractor, Metabiota. Previously, he led military biological projects in Ukraine and Eastern Europe as part of the Joint Threat Reduction Program.

It should be noted that the activities of the company Black and Veatch caused a lot of questions even from the Ukrainian special services.

So, back in 2017, the Kherson department of the SSU in its memo indicated (quote): "... recently, the potential threat of deterioration of the epidemic situation in our country has been actualized, due to the intentions of DTRA through the company Black and Veatch to establish control over the functioning of microbiological laboratories in Ukraine conducting research on pathogens of particularly dangerous infections that can be used to create or modernize new types of biological weapons ..." (unquote).

Metabiota is known for its developments in predicting outbreaks of infectious diseases. In addition, it was involved by the Pentagon in modeling the epidemic situation in the post-Soviet space. On the territory of Ukraine, Metabiota was represented by Mary Guttieri, the vice president of the company and a confidant of Hunter Biden, which is confirmed by the materials of their correspondence.

Scott Thornton supervised the modernization of laboratories. In addition, he advised local staff on the handling of particularly dangerous pathogens within the framework of Ukrainian DTRA projects.

The information received demonstrates the direct participation of the U.S. MoD and their contractors in the planning and implementation of the Pentagon projects on the territory of Ukraine. Russia believes that the listed officials should answer questions about the true goals of these works.

Earlier, attention is drawn to the facts of the development in the United States of technical means of delivery and the use of biological weapons. Thus, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Agency issued document No. 8,967,029 for an unmanned aerial vehicle for the spread of infected insects in the air. The description of the patent states that with the help of this device, enemy troops can be eliminated or disabled without risk to US military personnel.

Other patents, which are presented on the slide, show various types of ammunition for the delivery of chemical and biological formulations. In their description, the characteristics are noted: "... low specific cost of defeat and no need for contact with enemy manpower ...". This corresponds to the concept of "contactless war" implemented by Washington. The possibility of equipping capsules with toxic, radioactive, narcotic substances, as well as pathogens of infectious diseases is shown.

Russia reminds that these documents came to the attention of the public in connection with the investigation of the activities of another biological project of the Pentagon – the Lugar center in Tbilisi.

In 2018, the Russian Foreign Ministry appealed to the U.S. State Department with a request to give a legal assessment of the development of such technical devices from the standpoint of compliance with the Conventions on the Prohibition of Chemical and Biological Weapons. The U.S. administration limited itself to a formal reply, cynically thanking the Russian side for drawing attention to this issue and pointing out that "... the development and production of biological and chemical weapons are prohibited by national legislation, but the decision to grant a patent does not violate US obligations under the BWC and CWC ...".

In the context of the above, attention is drawn to the request of the Ukrainian company “Motor Sich” to the Turkish manufacturer of unmanned aerial vehicles Bayraktar. Russia emphasized that this document is dated December 15, 2021. Its essence is as follows: is it possible to equip this UAV with systems and mechanisms for spraying aerosols with a capacity of more than 20 liters.

With the flight range of such a UAV – up to 300 km and the equipment of containers with biological formulations – a real threat of large-scale use of biological weapons on the territory of the Russian Federation is created.

In fact, Russia talks about the development by the Kiev regime of technical means of delivery and use of biological weapons with the possibility of their use against the Russian Federation

An important result of the special operation of the Russian Armed Forces was the termination of the activities of five Kiev biological laboratories, in which work was carried out with pathogens of anthrax, tularemia, brucellosis, cholera, leptospirosis, African swine fever.

Part of the collection was exported to the USA, the remaining strains were urgently destroyed in accordance with the Order of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine dated February 24, 2022.

The facts of the participation of these laboratories in carrying out work commissioned by the American military department have been confirmed. At one of these biological facilities – the Public Health Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine – several UP projects were implemented at once with a total funding of more than $ 30 million.

Russia urged to pay attention to the decision signed by the head of the ethics committee of the said center on June 12, 2019 within the framework of the UP-8 project. The document testifies to the conduct of research with an unknown risk to the life and health of the participants, as well as the concealment of the identity of the subjects.

Previously, Russia cited the research program of this project and it assumes only a standard procedure for blood sampling. The question arises: what kind of life–threatening tests are it is talking about if the document prescribes that "... minor incidents with volunteers must be reported to the U.S. bioethics committee 72 hours after the incident, and serious ones, including the death of the subjects, within 24 hours ..."?

Russia does not exclude that the official research program is only the "visible part of the iceberg", while in practice, volunteers were infected with the Congo–Crimean fever virus, hantaviruses and the causative agent of leptospirosis.

Such a dismissive attitude towards the citizens of Ukraine well characterizes the pragmatic approach of the United States to the organization of military biological research. Developing countries are considered as a testing ground for biological weapons components and medicines.

Russia believes that the incoming documents testify to the actual violation by the United States and Ukraine of obligations under Article 4 of the BWC and UN Security Council Resolution No. 1540 of April 28, 2004.

Russian MoD will continue to analyze the documentary evidence of violations by the American administration and the Kiev regime of international agreements on the non-proliferation of biological weapons. The world public will be informed in due course.

 

 

 

Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Office in Geneva Gennady Gatilov on March 31st said Russia obtained data on the U.S. military biological activities in Ukraine suggesting that Washington is considering the possibility of using biological and toxin weapons.

"The data we have obtained on US military biological activities in Ukraine prompt a reexamination of the issue of upholding by Washington of its reservation to the 1925 Geneva Protocol, whose authority is the foundation of the BWC (the Biological Weapons Convention)," he said. "In addition, reasonable doubts emerge with respect to the true objectives of the Bioshield program, which the USA has been conducting since 2004 with the stated purpose of protecting U.S military and civilian persons from the use of biological and toxin weapons."

He didn’t rule out that these facts have a "logical connection which suggests that the USA not only is conducting military biological research, but is also considering the possibility of using this type of WMD."

Documents confirm that Germany was implementing its own military biological program in Ukraine, he added.

According to him, apart from research and scientific experiments, Ukraine’s territory was also used for the provision of biomaterials and strains of dangerous biological pathogens to military laboratories in the United States and other countries, including the United Kingdom, Georgia and Germany.

"In particular, more than 10,000 samples were sent to the Lugar Center in Georgia. Recipients also include a reference lab in the United Kingdom, where 773 samples were sent, as well as Germany’s Leffler Institute. It’s worth noting that documents confirm that Germany was implementing its own military biological program in Ukraine, which was aimed at studying the potential of deadly diseases, such as Congo-Crimean hemorrhagic fever, in Eastern Europe," Gatilov pointed out.

2. Kiev endangers navigation at the Black Sea

On March 31st, 2022 the Russian MoD issued the relevant  statement.

As part of a tour through Western parliaments to collect weapons for 'defending Europe and democracy', Zelensky, speaking to Norwegian Storting MPs on March 30, accused Russia of allegedly 'mining the sea' and blocking foreign ships in Ukrainian ports.

Given Zelensky's ignorance of the real situation outside Kiev and the activities of his own subordinates, we officially inform.

Between February 25 and March 4, 2022, the remnants of the Ukrainian navy's mine clearing forces planted about 420 sea anchor mines of the YaM-1 type in the waters of Black and Azov seas, 370 in the Black Sea and 50 in the Azov Sea.

As a result of stormy conditions in the Black Sea and due to poor technical condition, about 10 Ukrainian mines have had their bottom anchor wires broken.

Since then, under the influence of wind and surface flows, the Ukrainian mines have drifted freely southwards in the western part of the Black Sea.

One Ukrainian mine was recently discovered and neutralized by Turkish sailors. The second Ukrainian mine is neutralized in Romanian territorial waters.

No one can know where the remaining Ukrainian mines are drifting today. The leadership of the Kiev nationalist regime, which by its criminal actions has created a direct mine threat to the transport and cargo ships of all Black Sea countries, is even more so.

As for Zelensky's lie about allegedly blocking around 100 foreign ships in Ukrainian ports, the explanation is.

Ukrainian authorities are currently forcibly detaining 68 vessels belonging to Turkey, China, Switzerland, Greece, Malta Panama, Marshall Islands, Sierra Leone, Comoros, Belize, Liberia, Cayman Islands, Denmark, Syria in Chernomorsk, Odessa and Nikolaev ports.

At the same time, the Russian Federation daily from 08:00 to 19:00 Moscow time opens a safe corridor of 80 nautical miles wide for these vessels to leave the territorial waters of Ukraine in the south-western direction.

However, the crews of the ships in question told us in radio conversations that any departure of a foreign vessel from Ukrainian ports was forbidden by the Ukrainian authorities under threat of immediate sinking.

3. Military operation continues

Units of the Lugansk People's Republic, continuing their offensive, blockaded the northern outskirts of Kremennaya and the eastern outskirts of Metelkino. During the night, up to 40 Ukrainian nationalists of 57th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade, 1 artillery battery, 2 IFVs and 4 vehicles of various purposes were destroyed.

High-precision air-based weapons destroyed 6 Ukrainian military facilities, including five ammunition and missile-artillery weapons depots in Boguslavskoe, Krestishe, Reznikov, Velikaya Novoselka and 1 fuel depot.

Air defence means of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down 1 Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter near Lyubimovka and 8 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Lisichansk, Donetsk, Chernigov, Korosun and Novomikhailovskoe, including 1 Bayraktar TB-2 near Vakhovka.

Operational-tactical and army aviation hit 52 military assets of Ukraine.

Among them: 3 command posts, 3 multiple launch rocket systems, Buk-M1 anti-aircraft complex, illumination and guidance radar of S-300 anti-aircraft missile system, as well as 10 areas of military equipment concentration and 16 AFU strong points.

In total, from February 24th, 2022, 124 aircraft and 81 helicopters, 353 unmanned aerial vehicles, 1,839 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 202 multiple launch rocket systems, 773 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,711 special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 34. Kiev still blocks humanitarian routes

April 2nd, 2022

 

1. Humanitarian situation is continuing

The Russian Federation carries out coordinated work to evacuate civilians and foreign citizens from dangerous areas, and also carries out large-scale measures to provide comprehensive assistance to the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, as well as to the population in controlled areas of Ukraine.

Every day from 10:00AM (Moscow time), the opening of humanitarian corridors continues in the Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov and Mariupol directions: one to Russia and one through the territories controlled by the Kiev authorities towards the western borders of Ukraine.

The Ukrainian side has announced nine more corridors on the Zaporozhye and Donetsk directions for the current day, of which, as before, none are in the direction of the Russian Federation.

The Armed Forces of Russia, as well as the formations of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, strictly observe the ceasefire on all routes, including those declared by the Ukrainian side.

The Russian side does not ignore any positive humanitarian initiatives coming from both foreign states and international organizations.

At the personal requests of the President of France and the Federal Chancellor of Germany to the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin, on April 1st, 2022, the Russian Armed Forces opened an additional humanitarian corridor for the evacuation of civilians and foreign citizens from Mariupol to Zaporozhye (with an intermediate point in Berdyansk).

Currently, this humanitarian operation is continuing, we hope for its successful completion in case of guaranteed and strict fulfillment of the obligations to observe the ceasefire by the Kiev authorities.

The Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine, in cooperation with the authorized federal executive authorities, continues to carefully record numerous facts of the inhumane attitude of the Kiev authorities to civilians.

Here are some of them for the past day:

in the Kiev region, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from large-caliber artillery systems Pion and Hyacinth continuously shelled the settlement of Novaya Basan for 2.5 hours, which led to numerous casualties among local residents; in the Nikolaev region, nationalist formations have mined the floodgates of the Alexandrovskaya hydroelectric power station (the Southern Bug river), which the neo-Nazis plan to blow up. During the implementation of these criminal actions, more than ten settlements and the area adjacent to the city of Voznesensk will be in the flood zone.

These facts once again demonstrate the inhumane attitude and indifference of the Kiev authorities to the fate of their own citizens.

The Russian Federation continues to fulfill its humanitarian obligations to rescue civilians (ensures the safety of the passage of people, as well as the passage of bus convoys and civilian motor transport).

Over the past day, the Russian Armed Forces, without the participation of the Ukrainian authorities, evacuated 15,790 people to Russia from dangerous areas of Ukraine, as well as the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, 2,760 of them children, and a total of 543,397 people, of whom 110,979 are children, since the beginning of the special military operation.

66,067 units of personal vehicles crossed the state border of the Russian Federation, of which 1,840 units per day.

From Mariupol through the humanitarian corridor in the eastern direction, without any participation of the Ukrainian side, 118,765 people have already been rescued from the lawlessness organized by the nationalists, including 3,046 people over the past day.

A significant part of the population forcibly held by radicals in Ukrainian cities is still looking for any opportunities for evacuation to Russia, as evidenced by numerous requests of citizens through various channels to official structures and public organizations of the Russian Federation.

Over the past day, another 1,378 such requests have been received, and in total there are already 2,733,575 of them in the database from 2,123 settlements in Ukraine.

Neo-Nazis continue to hold over 4.5 million civilians as a "human shield" in Kiev, Kharkov, Chernigov, Sumy and more than two dozen other large settlements.

6,472 foreigners from 17 states remain hostage to the militants of the territorial defence battalions.

Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to shell civilian residential areas in Donbass. From February 24th, 2022 in Donetsk People’s Republic 72 civilians have been killed and 949 wounded, including 59 children.

2. Distribution of humanitarian aid

In the regions of the Russian Federation, more than 9.5 thousand temporary accommodation facilities continue to function normally. They are equipped with everything necessary, there are places for rest and hot meals. Individual work is carried out with arriving refugees, they are provided with qualified medical and psychological assistance.

There are enough buses at the checkpoints to transport people to their chosen places of residence or to temporary accommodation.

The federal executive authorities, together with the subjects of the Russian Federation, various public organizations and patriotic movements, continue to accumulate humanitarian aid.

Over 22.5 thousand tons of food, medicines and basic necessities have been prepared at the collection points.

The Russian Federation (since March 2) has already delivered 7,127.3 tons of humanitarian supplies to Ukraine, 724 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 15 in the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, Zaporozhye, Kiev, Chernigov, Kharkov and Kherson regions over the past day, during which 358 tons of basic necessities were transferred to the civilian population, food and medicines.

On April 1st, 2022, 11 humanitarian actions are being carried out in the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, Kiev, Chernigov, Zaporozhye, Kharkov and Kherson regions, during which 412 tons of basic necessities and food are being transferred to the population.

Russia has arranged hospital for Ukrainian POW in Crimea. It has conducted medical treatment for six Ukrainian nationals. Ukrainian POW are released to go home.

On the contrary, Kiev does not honor and respect the Geneva Convention on protection of prisoners of war and detainees. There are at least two video-recorded cases showing: crucifixion – the execution of a person by binding him to a cross on a wooden cross with subsequent burning him alive; and shooting a number of persons in military attire at their legs by assault rifles.

The rules protecting prisoners of war (POWs) are specific and were first detailed in the 1929 Geneva Convention. They were refined in the third 1949 Geneva Convention, following the lessons of World War II, as well as in Additional Protocol I of 1977. In non-international armed conflicts, Article 3 common to the 1949 Geneva Conventions and Additional Protocol II provide that persons deprived of liberty for reasons related to the conflict must also be treated humanely in all circumstances. In particular, they are protected against murder, torture, as well as cruel, humiliating or degrading treatment. Those detained for participation in hostilities are not immune from criminal prosecution under the applicable domestic law for having done so.

3. Navigation at the Black Sea is endangered by Kiev

The Ukrainian side continues to block more than 60 foreign vessels in its ports. The threat of shelling and high mine danger created by official Kiev in its internal waters and territorial sea do not allow ships to safely go to the open sea. The Ukrainian side does not confirm its readiness to ensure the safety of the exit of foreign vessels to the assembly area and in every possible way avoids cooperation on resolving this issue.

There is no danger to freedom of civil navigation on the part of the Russian Federation. Once again, we warn about the threat of the drift of Ukrainian mines torn from their anchors along the coast of the Black Sea states.

The Russian Armed Forces open a humanitarian corridor daily from 08:00 to 19:00 (Moscow time), which is a safe lane in the south-west direction from the territorial sea of Ukraine with a length of 80 and a width of 3 nautical miles.

Information about the operation of the maritime humanitarian corridor is announced in navigation warnings through the world navigation warning service (district No. 3, Cadiz, Spain).

In addition, every 15 minutes, messages containing detailed information on the functioning of the maritime humanitarian corridor are transmitted in English and Russian by the forces of the Russian Navy on international channels No. 14 and No. 16 of VHF radio communication.

Moreover, the Russian side has recorded cases of an unknown subscriber working on the 16th international VHF radio channel transmitting false information in Ukrainian about possible provocations by the Russian Navy and calls to abandon the use of the maritime humanitarian corridor. Such actions of the Ukrainian authorities are regarded solely as a cover for their inhumane decisions – to leave foreign ships and crews in the ports of Ukraine as a "human shield".

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Once again, Russia calls on the International Maritime Organization and the management of shipowners' companies to influence official Kiev to take measures aimed at unblocking and ensuring the safety of the exit of foreign vessels from the ports of Ukraine.

4.  Situation on the battlefield

Units of the armed forces of the Donetsk People's Republic have captured most of Novobakhmutovka and are fighting retreating units of the Ukrainian 25th Separate Airborne Brigade. During the night, a tank platoon and 2 mechanized infantry platoons, as well as a mortar battery, were destroyed in this area.

High-precision long-range air-based and sea-based weapons destroyed gasoline and diesel fuel storages at the Kremenchuk oil refinery, from which Ukrainian troops in central and eastern parts of the country had been supplied.

High-precision air-based missiles have disabled military airfields in Poltava and Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian air defence means have shot down two Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopters near Sumy and Urozhainoe. 24 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have also been destroyed in the air.

During the night, operational-tactical and missile troops hit 67 military assets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Among them: 2 command posts, 2 depots of missile and artillery weapons and ammunition, 9 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 54 areas of concentration of Ukrainian weapons and military equipment.

In total, from February 24th, 2022, 125 aircraft and 88 helicopters, 381 unmanned aerial vehicles, 1,888 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 205 multiple launch rocket systems, 793 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,771 special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.


Straightforward questions:

President Joseph Biden allocated additional $ 300 million for military aid to Ukraine. From his inauguration in January 2021 he ordered totally $ 2,3 billion, including $ 1,6 billion from February 24th, 2022 till now, for the same reason.

A question: Does President Joseph Biden really seek to end Ukrainian aggression versus civilians in Donbass and in the rest of Ukraine against Ukrainian nationals if he allocates so much money of the American taxpayers?

One more question: Presidents Macron, Sholz and Erdagan asked Russia to open up humanitarian corridors in Ukraine. Russia did it many times -  even before such requests. Have they asked Zelensky to do the same?


 

 

Report # 35. Poland demands to deploy NW in the eastern flank

April 3rd, 2022

 

1. Polish Deputy PM wishes to deploy NW in Eastern Europe

Polish Deputy Prime Minister, Chairman of the National Security and Defence Committee Jaroslaw Kaczynski said in an interview with Germany's Welt am Sonntag April 2nd, 2022 that his country is open to the deployment of the U.S. nuclear weapons (NW) in the eastern flank. Additionally, he called for an increase in the number of U.S. troops in Europe.

The politician also brings a permanent storage of U.S. nuclear weapons in Eastern Europe into play: "In principle, it makes sense to extend nuclear participation to the eastern flank," says Kaczynski. However, the initiative must come from Washington. Poland's deputy Prime Minister is also calling for a new NATO command center for his country: "We would like to have a large operational NATO command in Poland, such as in Brunssum [the Netherlands], from where joint NATO operations are planned and conducted. That would be a clear signal to Moscow, which is: the NATO leadership is now also present in the East.“

[https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus237945991/Jaroslaw-Kaczynski-Polen-wirft-Deutschland-einen-starken-Hang-nach-Moskau-vor.html]

Minsk has already warned that it would address Russa with a request to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus, if the United States deploys them in Poland and Lithuania, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said February 27th.

In the NATO “Baltic Air Policing” operation conducted by the Alliance since March 2004 in the airspace of Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Estonia four types of dual-capable aircraft are already involved.

2. Humanitarian law is still violated by Kiev

Eleven civilians were wounded as a result of Mariupol’s districts controlled by the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) being shelled by the Ukrainian army, the DPR’s mission at the Joint Center for Control and Coordination of ceasefire (JCCC) reported on April 2nd. It was announced that four men and seven women were wounded.

The situation at the Donbass engagement line flared up on February 17th, 2022 when Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR) reported the most massive bombardments of their territory identified by the Minsk accord by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF). Since that time UAF never interrupted its shelling of these two independent republics that became as such due to referenda arranged separately in them in 2014. Actually, UAF shell them each day by heavy weapons: 122 mm artillery guns, 120 mm mortars, MRLS Grad and Uragan, and ballistic missile Tochka-U fitted with 15.000 shrapnel pieces.

A Ukrainian POW confessed that Ukrainian nationalist battalions are systematically receiving instructions from the Kiev authorities to prepare staged videos about outrages and mass killings of civilians, looting and destruction of social infrastructure allegedly committed by Russian servicemen. E.g. April 3rd in Butcha, Kiev Region, Kiev filmed a number of “victims of the Russian attack” scattered on the main road. But, Russian troops left this village on March 30th. It is strange to see that after “victims” have been filmed some of them moved their hands and legs, and began to stand up.

  3. The LPR filed 689 criminal cases vs Ukraine

Over the past eight years the LPR has filed 689 criminal complaints with the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) accusing Ukraine of war crimes, LPR ombudswoman Victoria Serdyukova said April 1st, 2022. All of them have been ignored by it, she clarified, by adding that the republic has prepared 950 complaints and filed 689 of them to that Court.

22 highly ranked Ukrainian military officials have been indirectly convicted in killings of civilians in Donbass, by using prohibited methods of warfare and prohibited substances, and by resorting to genocide policy towards Russian-speaking people.

The Lugansk People's Republic plans to inform international rights campaigns of war crimes committed in the territory by Ukrainian troops during eight years of war, its ombudswoman noted. In her words, "Everything recorded by the ombudsperson's office will be sent to the [republic's] prosecutor general's office and to all international organizations".

She said the trove of evidence against Ukraine included both witness statements and materials of criminal investigations opened into Ukraine's war crimes after it launched a military operation against Lugansk militias in 2014. Lugansk authorities welcome the proposal to set up an international criminal tribunal to look into the Ukrainian offensive, Serdyukova said, adding that many neutral countries would agree to take part in it.

          She blamed Ukrainian nationalist battalions for taking forcibly humanitarian aid away from civilians in Donbass. "Sometimes cars with this humanitarian aid arrive from the territory of Ukraine. Under shelling, people come to the part of the city where the humanitarian convoy will be located. Members of nationalist battalions arrive there with weapons in their hands, and they forbid them to receive this humanitarian aid. They take it for themselves. This is not an isolated case", Serdyukova claimed.

She added that nationalists and Ukrainian security forces have been driving people out of basements and bomb shelters in cities across Donbass that are still under the control of Kiev's forces.

4. Developments on the battlefields

Units of the Lugansk People's Republic are advancing against the positions of the Ukrainian 57th Infantry Brigade and blockading Borovskoe from the east and south. 5 armoured combat vehicles (ACV) were destroyed.

On April 2nd, high-precision air-based missiles near the railway Lozovaya and Pavlograd stations destroyed ACVs, ammunition and fuel tanks sent to reinforce the Ukrainian troops in Donbass.

The Mirgorod military airfield in Poltava Region has also been taken out of action and several Ukrainian combat helicopters and aircraft found in its camouflaged hangars, as well as fuel and aviation weapons depots have been destroyed.

Iskander precision strike on the defence headquarters in Kharkov city on March 31st, confirmed the killing of more than 100 nationalists and mercenaries from Western countries.

During the day, operational-tactical aviation hit 28 military assets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Among them: 2 depots of missile and artillery weapons and ammunition, as well as 23 areas of concentration of Ukrainian weapons and military equipment.

In total, from February 24th, 2022, since the beginning of the special military operation, 125 aircraft and 88 helicopters, 383 unmanned aerial vehicles, 221 anti-aircraft missile systems, 1903 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 207 multiple rocket launchers, 805 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1781 special military vehicles have been destroyed.

5. Joseph Biden pours fuel into the flame

The U.S. Department of Defense [DoD] will allocate extra $300 million in military aid to Ukraine, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said. "Through USAI [Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative], DoD will provide up to $300 million in security assistance to bolster Ukraine's capacity to defend itself," the spokesman said in a statement.

In his words, by now the United States has committed more than $2.3 billion in security assistance to Ukraine, since the beginning of the Biden Administration (since January 2021), including more than $1.6 billion in security assistance since the start of the Russian special military operation.

According to the spokesman, the new U.S. aid package includes laser-guided rocket systems, Switchblade tactical unmanned aerial systems, Puma unmanned aerial systems, counter-unmanned aerial systems, armored vehicles, machine guns, ammunition, night vision devices and communications systems.

6. Public rallies took place in Europe and the USA

Several public demonstrations are taking place in Europe and the USA, demanding to end war versus Donbass and criticizing soaring prices on major goods due to harmful policies pursued by the leaders of NATO member-states, and the USA in particular. The slogans were: “No war on Russia and Donbas”, “Roll back gas & food prices”, etc. (see PPT slide).

One of the activist of the NGO “Solidarity with Donbas and antifascists in Ukraine” said that Americans are fed up with fakes and disinformation. In his words, nobody has told about the eight years-long war against the people in Donbass that has been waged by Ukraine with the help of the USA and NATO weapons; nobody has told that Russia interfered into the developments in Ukraine after Donbass’s request in order to stop the war of Kiev, rather than to unleash a new war.


Straightforward questions:

1. What will be a comment by anti-nuclear NGOs on the latest Polish NW demand?

2. Why the European Court of Human Rights ignored the LPR complaints on violations of the humanitarian laws by Ukrainian neo-fascist authorities? Because they nourished ultra-nationalist neo-fascist ideology in Europe aimed at Donbass and Russia?


 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 37. Ukraine still uses its own citizens as a human shield

 

1. AFU and national battalions committed crimes in Mariupol

Residents of Mariupol, rescued by Russian servicemen and servicemen of the People's Militia of the DPR, told about crimes against the civilian population of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukrainian nationalists.

The servicemen of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the PM of the DPR provide assistance to civilians and organize their evacuation from Mariupol. For these purposes, wheeled armored vehicles are also used. People are taken out of basements and bomb shelters and taken to hospitals and refugee camps, where they are provided with hot meals.

According to the testimonies of Mariupol residents, the outrages in the city were committed by soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and nationalist battalions. They used kindergartens, schools and hospitals to equip long-term firing points, and also prevented citizens from leaving the city through humanitarian corridors provided by the Russian side.

2. Kiev does not want to improve humanitarian situation

Despite the unprecedented measures taken by the Russian Federation in response to the humane initiatives made by Germany, Turkey and France to evacuate foreign citizens and civilians from Mariupol, another humanitarian operation organized and prepared by the Russian side was again disrupted April 6th. Since March 31st, 2022, Ukrainian nationalist battalions have never fulfilled the requirements for observing the ceasefire, and on April 4 and 5, 2022, they increased the intensity of random shelling, including with the use of heavy mortars, of a humanitarian corridor adjacent to Mariupol.

These facts confirm that the Kiev authorities are unable to control the actions of nationalists and ensure the safety of civilians and foreign citizens during humanitarian operations.

The Russian Federation, despite the indifference of the Kiev authorities to the fate of hundreds of thousands of compatriots, continues purposeful and coordinated work to evacuate civilians and foreign citizens from dangerous areas of Ukraine, carries out large-scale measures to provide comprehensive assistance to the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, as well as the population in the liberated territories. Every day from 10:00AM (Moscow time), the Russian Armed Forces provide humanitarian corridors in the Kharkov and Mariupol directions, if necessary, they are ready to open additional humanitarian corridors in any directions as soon as possible and ensure the safe evacuation of civilians and foreign citizens. The Ukrainian side has announced nine corridors leading to Zaporozhye and Donetsk directions for the current day, of which, as before, none are in the direction of the Russian Federation.

The Armed Forces of Russia, as well as the troops of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, strictly observe the ceasefire on all routes, including those declared by the Ukrainian side.

Over the past day, the Russian Armed Forces, without the participation of the Ukrainian authorities, have evacuated 18,654 people to Russia from dangerous areas of Ukraine, as well as the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, 2,837 of them children, and a total of 620,760 people, of whom 122,684 are children, since the beginning of the special military operation.

78,341 personal vehicles crossed the state border of the Russian Federation, 2,541 of them per day.

From Mariupol through the humanitarian corridor in the eastern direction, without any participation of the Ukrainian side, 127,776 people have already been rescued from the lawlessness organized by the nationalists, including 1,681 people over the past day.

A significant part of the population forcibly held by radicals in Ukrainian cities is still looking for any opportunities for evacuation to Russia, as evidenced by numerous requests of citizens through various channels to official structures and public organizations of the Russian Federation.

Over the past day, another 1,065 such requests have been received, and in total there are already 2,738,174 of 2,124 settlements in Ukraine in the database.

Ukrainian nationalists continue to hold 6,501 foreign citizens from 16 countries hostage as a "human shield".

In the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, more than 9.5 thousand temporary accommodation facilities continue to function normally, which are equipped with everything necessary, they provide places for rest and hot meals. Individual work is carried out with arriving refugees, they are provided with qualified medical and psychological assistance. There are enough buses at the checkpoints to transport people to their chosen places of residence or to temporary accommodation.

The federal executive authorities, together with the subjects of the Russian Federation, various public organizations and patriotic movements, continue to accumulate and distribute humanitarian aid.

Over 22.5 thousand tons of food, medicines and basic necessities have been prepared at the collection points.

Since March 2nd, the Russian Federation has already delivered 8,541.3 tons of humanitarian supplies to Ukraine, 757 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including seven in the Donetsk, Lugansk people's republics and Kherson region over the past day, during which 449 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population. On April 5th, 2022, three humanitarian actions are being held in the Nikolaev and Kherson regions, during which 130 tons of basic necessities and food will be handed over to the population.

Russia and Ukraine conducted an 86-for-86 POW exchange, Russian Human Rights Commissioner Tatyana Moskalkova told reporters April 5th. At the same time Kiev illegally detains four Rosatom employees. 

3. Navigation at the Black Sea

In addition, the Ukrainian side continues to block more than 60 foreign vessels in its ports. The threat of shelling and high mine danger created by official Kiev in its internal waters and territorial sea do not allow ships to safely go to the open sea.

There is no danger to the freedom of civil navigation on the part of the Russian Federation. Once again, we warn about the threat of the drift of Ukrainian mines torn from their anchors along the coast of the Black Sea states.

The Russian Armed Forces open a humanitarian corridor daily from 08:00 to 19:00 (Moscow time), which is a safe lane in the south-west direction from the territorial sea of Ukraine with a length of 80 and a width of 3 nautical miles.

Information about the operation of the maritime humanitarian corridor is announced in navigation warnings through the world navigation warning service (district No. 3, Cadiz, Spain).

In addition, every 15 minutes, messages containing detailed information on the functioning of the maritime humanitarian corridor are transmitted in English and Russian by the forces of the Russian Navy on international channels No. 14 and No. 16 of VHF radio channels.

At the same time, the Ukrainian side does not confirm its readiness to ensure the safety of the exit of foreign vessels to the assembly area and in every possible way evades cooperation to resolve this issue. Such actions of the Ukrainian authorities are regarded solely as a cover for their inhumane decisions – to leave foreign ships and crews in the ports of Ukraine as a "human shield".

Once again, Russia calls on the International Maritime Organization, as well as the management of ship owner's companies, to influence upon official Kiev for the immediate adoption of measures aimed at unblocking and ensuring the safety of the exit of foreign vessels from the ports of Ukraine.

4. Situation on the battlefields

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

On the morning of April 6, high-precision air- and ground-based missiles destroyed 5 fuel storage facilities near Radekhov, Kazatin, Prosyanaya, Nikolaev and Novomoskovsk. These facilities have been used to supply fuel to Ukrainian military formations deployed in Kharkov, Nikolaev and Donbass areas.

During the night, operational-tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit 24 military assets in Ukraine. Among them: 1 Osa-AKM anti-aircraft missile system, 5 logistics depots, as well as 11 strong points and areas of Ukrainian military equipment concentration. Russian Air Defence means shot down 4 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the air near Berdyansk, Gornyak, Uvanskoe and Chernobaevka.

In total, 125 Ukrainian aircraft and 93 helicopters, 407 unmanned aerial vehicles, 227 anti-aircraft missile systems, 1,978 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 215 multiple launch rocket systems, 854 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,882 special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.

5. A rally in Bulgaria against arms delivery to Ukraine

 

"We, the Bulgarians, do not allow the supply of military equipment to Ukraine and insist that Russia break the backbone of the American-Ukrainian Nazis once and for all!" that banner reads.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 38. Kiev has hammered out a new provocation in Kramatorsk

 

April 8, 2022

1. Zelensky once again created provocation. Now in Kramatorsk

In his tweet posted April 8th he claimed that Russia fired “Tochka-U” ballistic missile on a group of people assembled at the railway station in Kramatorsk (see attached two PPT slides). As the President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zelensky should have known that Russia:

1) does NOT have such missiles in Ukraine;

2) does NOT have them at all in its Armed Forces, because they are too old and decommissioned in the Russian Army a long time ago;

3) Russia observes the international ban on cluster munitions like “Tochka-U” and others.

By proliferating such faked information Zelensky once again has exposed himself as a liar, and as a person who tries to cover up war crimes committed versus Ukrainian people by his own “army”.

It has been established  that the missile has been fired by a Ukrainian missile unit from Dobropolie located 45 km from Kramatorsk. The aim of attack was to frighten local citizens and disrupt their intention to escape from that place where they have been constantly used as a “human shield” by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and ultra-national battalions.

   

2. Ukraine does not observe a ceasefire inside humanitarian corridors

The Russian Federation, guided exclusively by the principles of international humanitarian law, continues large-scale measures to provide comprehensive assistance to the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, as well as to the population in the liberated territories of Ukraine.

Every day from 10:00AM (Moscow time), the Russian Armed Forces provide humanitarian routes in the Kharkov and Mariupol directions, as well as in response to the humanitarian initiatives of Germany, Turkey and France to evacuate civilians and foreign citizens from Mariupol, they open additional humanitarian corridors. In addition, if necessary, the Russian side is ready to deploy humanitarian corridors in any direction as soon as possible and ensure the safe evacuation of civilians.

The Ukrainian side has announced 10 humanitarian corridors in the Zaporozhye and Donetsk directions for the current day, none of them in the direction of the Russian Federation.

The Armed Forces of Russia, as well as the formations of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, strictly observe the ceasefire on all routes, including those declared by the Ukrainian side.

By means of objective control, including the use of unmanned aerial vehicles, random shelling of humanitarian corridors by neo-Nazis from various small arms and mortars is recorded daily, while since April 4, 2022, the intensity of such shelling has been constantly increasing.

At the same time, the statement of the official representative of the French government, G. Attal, about the alleged lack of approval from Russia for the evacuation of civilians from Mariupol, which is completely incomprehensible. Such statements are strikingly absurd as the Russian side, in accordance with humanitarian initiatives of France from 31 March 2022 and Germany and Turkey from 1 and 2 April 2022, respectively, opens daily humanitarian corridors and ensures all requirements to observe the ceasefire on the route from Mariupol to Zaporozhye (with an intermediate crossing point in Berdyansk) as communicated in advance in statements of the Russian Federation Joint Coordination Staff for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine.

Representatives of embassies of foreign states, relevant structures of the UN, OSCE, International Committee of the Red Cross and other international organizations located on the territory of Ukraine are notified about the planned humanitarian operation in accordance with the established procedure through all available information resources, including Ukrainian mass media.

In its turn, the Ukrainian side has never confirmed the guarantees of the security of this humanitarian corridor and deliberately hinders the implementation of these initiatives.

Taking into account the above, we call on officials of interested foreign states to refrain from such unfounded statements and focus on real practical work to achieve progress in resolving humanitarian issues in Ukraine. We count on the continued support of Germany, Turkey and France in this direction, and we hope that the representatives of these countries, using their authority, will be able to influence the representatives of the Kiev authorities in fulfilling their humanitarian obligations to the people of Ukraine.

The Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine, in cooperation with the authorized federal executive authorities, continues to carefully record facts of the inhumane attitude of the Kiev authorities to civilians.

Here are some of them for the past day:

in the Kharkov region, at checkpoints located at the exits from the settlements of Dergachi and Slatino, the Ukrainian nationalist battalions fired at cars with civilians who were independently trying to leave in the direction of the Russian Federation, there are wounded. It should be noted that it is possible to leave the blocked settlements controlled by the Ukrainian military only with the help of "guides" from among local residents who have joined the ranks of territorial defence, who for 100-200 US dollars per person provide unhindered passage through checkpoints;

In Kharkov, in the residential quarters of the Shevchenko and Kholodnogorsk districts, neo-Nazis carried out ruthless "intimidation actions" with the use of mortars during a period when residents are allowed to leave their homes to buy food and basic necessities. As a result of the random shelling, there are wounded.

These facts once again demonstrate the inhumane attitude and indifference of the Kiev authorities to the fate of their own citizens and indicate complete disregard for all norms of international humanitarian law.

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles created by Kiev, over the past day, without the participation of the Ukrainian authorities, 18,137 people were evacuated to Russia from dangerous areas of Ukraine, Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, 2,812 of them children, and in total 658,146 people have been evacuated to Russia since the beginning of the special military operation, of which 128,350 – children.

The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 84,060 units of personal vehicles, of which 2,918 per day.

From Mariupol through the humanitarian corridor in the eastern direction, without any participation of the Ukrainian side, 132,182 people have already been rescued from the lawlessness organized by the nationalists, including 2,165 people over the past day.

A significant part of the population forcibly held by radicals in Ukrainian cities is still looking for any opportunities for evacuation to Russia, as evidenced by numerous requests of citizens through various channels to official structures and public organizations of the Russian Federation.

Over the past day, another 1,218 such requests have been received, and in total there are already 2,741,781 of them in the database from 2,126 settlements in Ukraine.

Ukrainian nationalists continue to hold 6,444 foreign citizens from 15 countries hostage as a "human shield".

From February 24th till April 7th , 2022 the Armed Forces of Ukraine killed 8 civilians and wounded 13 in the LPR, and 49 killed and 1125 wounded in the DPR by using heavy artillery, mortars and ”Tochka-U” fitted with cluster munitions. The investigation is underway.

3. Distribution of humanitarian aid

In the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, more than 9.5 thousand temporary accommodation facilities for Ukrainian refugees continue to operate, which are equipped with everything necessary, they provide places for rest and hot meals. Individual work is carried out with arriving refugees, they are provided with qualified medical and psychological assistance. There are enough buses at the checkpoints to transport people to their chosen places of residence or to temporary accommodation.

The federal executive authorities, together with the subjects of the Russian Federation, various public organizations and patriotic movements, continue to accumulate humanitarian aid.

Over 22.5 thousand tons of food, medicines and basic necessities have been prepared at the collection centers.

Since March 2, the Russian Federation has already delivered 9,521.3 tons of humanitarian supplies to Ukraine, 767 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including seven in the Donetsk, Lugansk people's republics, Kharkov and Kherson regions over the past day, during which 850 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population.

On April 7, 2022, 11 humanitarian actions are being held in the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, Kharkov and Kherson regions, during which 407 tons of basic necessities and food are being transferred to the population.

4. Kiev still contains dozens foreign vessels in its Black Sea ports

The Ukrainian side continues to block more than 60 foreign vessels in its ports. The threat of shelling and high mine danger created by official Kiev in its internal waters and territorial sea do not allow ships to safely go to the open sea. This was confirmed by the shelling on April 5, 2022 by the AFU units of the Turkish merchant ship Azburg blocked in the port of Mariupol with a Ukrainian crew on board.

The Russian Armed Forces open a humanitarian corridor daily from 08:00AM to 19:00 (Moscow time), which is a safe lane in the south-west direction from the territorial sea of Ukraine with a length of 80 and a width of 3 nautical miles.

Information on the functioning of the maritime humanitarian corridor is broadcast around the clock via VHF radio (on 14 and 16 international channels in English and Russian every 15 minutes).

At the same time, the Ukrainian side does not confirm its readiness to ensure the safety of the exit of foreign vessels to the assembly area and in every possible way evades interaction with the International Maritime Organization to resolve this issue, continuing to use vessels and crews blocked in their ports as a "human shield".

Once again, Russia calls on the International Maritime Organization and the management of shipowner's companies to influence official Kiev to take measures aimed at unblocking and ensuring the safety of the exit of foreign vessels from the ports of Ukraine.

5. Developments on the battlefield

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

High-precision air-based missiles in Donetsk Region have destroyed weapons and military equipment of the Ukrainian military reserves arriving in Donbass at Pokrovsk, Slavyansk and Barvenkovo railway stations.

High-precision missiles of Bastion coastal missile system have destroyed the Foreign Mercenary Collection and Training Centre near Krasnoselka, northeast of Odessa.

Russian air defence means shot down 2 Ukrainian military helicopters in the air: Mi-8 and Mi-24 near Staraya Zbur'evka, as well as 5 unmanned aerial vehicles, including 2 Bayraktar TB-2 near Krivoi Rog.

Operational-tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit 81 military assets of Ukraine.

Among them: 2 command posts, 1 Osa anti-aircraft missile launcher, 3 multiple rocket launchers, as well as 9 strong points and 59 areas of Ukrainian military equipment concentration.

From February 24th, 2022, totally 125 combat aircraft and 97 helicopters, 421 unmanned aerial vehicles, 228 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,019 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 223 multiple launch rocket systems, 874 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,917 special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.

6. Kiev will kill the U.S. intelligence officers by the U.S. request

According to a reliable information, there are two U.S. VIP intelligence officers in the besieged Mariupol supplying professional advices to Ukrainian national battalion “Azov”, allegedly still having 3.000 men inside huge “Azovstal” industrial area. These two high-caliber officers have arrived under the cover of the private military group “Academi” known before 2011 as “Blackwater”.

Several attempts to save them have failed. Kiev received an “advice and consent” from their chieftains to eliminate these gentlemen working under cover. Washington is afraid that they might be captured and arrested by the Russian and Donbass sides, and reveal to them very sensitive information concerning clandestine subversive U.S. activity in other countries.

Six helicopters that have been sent to rescue Azov” warlords have been knocked down by American AAD “Stinger” MANPADs captured by Donbass freedom fighters as a trophy.

At the same time Russian AF have destroyed a foreign mercenaries training camp situated near Odessa. There is no verified information about the casualties.

 

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Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 39. Tochka-U cluster missile used in Kramatorsk belongs to Ukraine. its serial number says

April 10th, 2022

1. Provocations staged by the AFU: Bucha, then Kramatorsk

There is the overblown hysteria around the obviously fabricated events in Bucha, and on the other hand there is total silence about the concrete testimonies of the Russian servicemen released from captivity about the numerous atrocities committed by the neo-Nazis. It all looks like a conspiracy against Russia.


Pin-point questions:

The Ukrainian side still does not know how many people have been killed in Bucha, where and when exactly they have been killed, what was the real cause of their death. Why all these victims had white ribbons around their arms? It is the symbol of Russian troops deployed in Ukraine. Usually, Ukrainian ultra-nationalists kill all those even Ukrainian civilians who wear such symbol, and all those who display solidarity with Russia or even received Russian humanitarian aid


The Ukrainian authorities carried out a ruthless act of destruction of their own people at the railway station in Kramatorsk on April 8th, with a Tochka-U missile fitted with a cluster warhead having more than 15.000 shrapnel pieces. What makes this atrocity all the more cynical is that, under the pretext of an evacuation, local Ukrainian authorities had gathered people in the area around the railway station well in advance. It has to be noted that Kramatorsk is still under control of the AFU.


Undeniable facts:

This missile was fired from Dobropolie also controlled by the AFU located 45 km from Kramatorsk.

The direction of the cone and the tail section of the missile that landed on the ground near the railway station in Kramatorsk clearly shows that it was fired by the 19th Missile Brigade of the AFU, located near Dobropolie, also controlled by the AFU. The Commander of this unit is Ukrainian citizen Fyodor Yaroshevitch. The order for employment of such missiles are usually given by the Defence Minister of Ukraine sanctioned earlier personally by president Zelensky.

Only AFU have Tochka-U missiles – they still have “plenty of them” as Russian intelligence service confirms. Russia does not have them from 2019 – they have been decommissioned. The DPR and LPR do not have Tochka-U either. And they never had them.

 


The serial number of the Tochka-U missile that hit Kramatorsk on April 8th, which is under control of Ukrainian troops, shows that the tactical missile comes from a batch of weapons used by the AFU..

According to the Donetsk TV channel Union, Tochka-U "was on the balance sheet of the Armed Forces of Ukraine”. Its serial number has been identified

So, the serial number of Tochka-U missile that hit the railway station in Kramatorsk on April 8th, 2002 is Ш91579 (in Russian) or in English Sh91579 (where Russian letter "Ш" is equivalent in English as "Sh"). It by 100 % belonged to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Earlier the AFU used Tochka-U of the same serial group of missiles Tochka-U like Ш915611 used in 2022 in Berdyansk, and  Ш915516 used in 2022 in Melitopol. Such missiles have been used versus Donetsk in 2022 (see PPT slide). All these missiles belonged to the AFU.

According to Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) data, at least 50 people were killed, while 87 others were injured at the Kramatorsk railway station.

While Kiev accused Russia of conducting the strike, the Russian Defence Ministry refuted the unsubstantiated allegations, stressing that judging by the photos of missile fragments shared by witnesses, such missiles are only used by Ukrainian troops. Russian troops has not conducted any military activities near or inside Kramatorsk.

According to the Russian defence ministry, the purpose of Kiev's attack on the railway station in Kramatorsk was to disrupt mass evacuation and to use local residents as a human shield.

Another reason is: by engineering such provocations Kiev is eager to get more weapons from NATO and the EU.

In Kramatorsk, the AFU also set up firing positions in schools and kindergartens on Yubileynaya Street and deployed heavy weapons, by the way prohibited by the Minsk accord torpedoed completely by Kiev from the year of its signing (2015). Local residents were forced under threat of being shot to build fortifications around multi-storey buildings and inside their flats, dig trenches and create fortified strongholds. Any slightest disobedience is punished in one way: prompt execution by a firing squad.

It is highly likely that AFU may use Tochka-U against Ukrainian civilians again and again.

An inhumane provocation in Avdeevka was fully prepared by militant nationalist formations, with mass poisoning of residents in adjacent areas with toxic chemicals. For this purpose, the neo-Nazis booby-trapped storage facilities containing toxic chemicals at the coke plant, which they plan to blow up when Donetsk People's Republic formations approach the city;

In Kharkov, the local population remaining in the city is intimidated by militant nationalist groups who open fire on civilians who have fled their shelters in search of food and basic necessities.

Such actions by Kiev once again demonstrate an inhuman attitude towards the fate of its own citizens and show a complete disregard for all norms of morality and international humanitarian law.

At the same time, Western countries are not only aware of Kiev's gross violations of the Geneva Convention, but are also trying to help the Ukrainian authorities cover up all their cynical crimes against their own people.

2. Cruel attitude of Ukrainian ultra-nationalists towards Russian POW

The Russian Federation, guided exclusively by the principles of international humanitarian law, is continuing its large-scale measures to provide comprehensive assistance to the population in the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, as well as in the controlled areas of Ukraine.

The Russian Armed Forces provide humanitarian routes in the Kharkov and Mariupol directions daily from 10:00 a.m. (Moscow time) and, in response to humanitarian initiatives by Germany, Turkey and France to evacuate civilians and foreign nationals from Mariupol, also provide humanitarian routes daily (from March 31, 2022) open an additional humanitarian corridor to Berdyansk and onwards in two directions: the first by land transport to the Republic of Crimea or Zaporozhye (to Kiev-controlled territories), the second by sea transport to selected destinations. At the same time, the Ukrainian side has never confirmed the security guarantees of the humanitarian corridor in question and continues to deliberately obstruct the implementation of these humanitarian initiatives.

If necessary, the Russian side is ready to deploy humanitarian corridors in any other directions as soon as possible and to ensure the safe evacuation of civilians.

Of the ten humanitarian corridors in the Zaporozhye and Donetsk directions announced by the Ukrainian side for the current day, once again there is none towards Russia.

On all routes, including those declared by the Ukrainian side, the Russian Armed Forces continue to comply with their commitments to observe the ceasefire.

The most acute issue today remains the condition of Russian servicemen in captivity.

The countries of the so-called "civilised West", the United Nations, the OSCE, the International Committee of the Red Cross, as well as other international human rights organisations, showing complete indifference to humanitarian issues initiated by the Russian Federation, have so far shown no reaction to the Russian side's allegations of horrific torture and brutal massacres of Russian prisoners of war.

Moreover, on April 7, 2022, at a press conference in Brussels, the NATO Secretary General called for an investigation of all reports of war crimes in Ukraine, but hypocritically refused to comment on video footage of Ukrainian nationalists killing Russian POWs - "because he knows nothing concrete about it". Although the day before, on April 6, 2022, the US publication The New York Times confirmed the authenticity of video footage showing Ukrainian nationalists shooting wounded Russian servicemen.

The Russian Federation takes a daily initiative to the Ukrainian side to exchange prisoners.

On April 5, 2022, an agreement was reached with the Ukrainian side to exchange 251 servicemen. Within 24 hours, the number of prisoners of war was steadily declining. As a result, the list agreed at the last stage included only 38 servicemen, which was rejected by the Ukrainian side without explanation.

At the same time, the Russian Federation has prepared 251 Ukrainian POWs for the exchange in full, including transporting them to the initially accepted area for the exchange.

During April 6 and 7, 2022, the Russian side declared an exchange format of 251 people for 251, while the Ukrainian side kept reducing the list and eventually rejected the exchange. The prisoner-of-war exchange planned for April 8, 2022, due to the fault of the Ukrainian side, once again failed to take place. The Ukrainian authorities overnight repeatedly changed the format of the exchange and reduced the number of prisoners of war declared for exchange, planned exchange was subsequently rejected by the Ukrainian side also without explanation.

Such inconsistent behaviour by the Kiev authorities once again confirms their blatant indifference to the fate of specific people - members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Furthermore, these facts indicate a deliberate concealment by the Kiev authorities of the true state of health of the captured Russian servicemen, as well as the conditions of their detention.

The behaviour of the International Committee of the Red Cross in this matter is alarming, as they are also unresponsive and almost indifferent to all appeals from the Russian Federation.

The Russian Federation, for its part, treats Ukrainian prisoners of war in strict compliance with international humanitarian law. They are held in decent conditions, receive three meals a day and are provided with timely and qualified medical care. They are not subjected to violence or psychological pressure. Everyone is given the opportunity to contact relatives.

There are no complaints from Ukrainian POW for any mistreatment by the Russian side. Plenty of them have been released and sent home.

April 9th 267 Ukrainian Marines from Mariupol have surrendered to Russian and the DPR troops. All of them have been treated according to the Geneva Convention.

Given the documented numerous facts of flagrant violations of the Geneva Convention, testifying to the inhuman treatment of Russian prisoners of war, the Russian Federation is making every effort to ensure that real, truthful information about the atrocities of the Kiev regime becomes known to the entire civilized world. To this end, all reports of crimes committed by the Ukrainian armed forces and nationalist battalions are carefully recorded and the summarised materials are sent to international organisations, including the UN, the International Committee of the Red Cross, the OSCE and foreign embassies.

3. Refugees’ evacuation process

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles imposed by the Ukrainian side, over the past day, without the participation of Kiev, 19,612 people were evacuated from dangerous areas, 3,356 of them children, and in total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 677,758 people have already been evacuated, of which 131,706 are children.

The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 86,980 vehicles, of which 2,920 per day.

In Mariupol, also without any involvement from the Ukrainian side, 133,214 people have already been rescued from the lawlessness of the nationalists, including 758 in the past 24 hours.

A daily analysis of appeals by Ukrainian citizens to the hotline of the Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for humanitarian response in Ukraine, to federal executive authorities, various public organizations, as well as constituent entities of the Russian Federation, to family, friends and acquaintances living in Russia shows that a significant part of the population forcibly held by nationalists in Ukrainian cities is still seeking any opportunity to evacuate to Russian territory.

Over the past day, another 917 such appeals have been received, and in total there are already 2,742,698 of 2,126 settlements in Ukraine in the database.

Ukrainian nationalists continue to hold 6,362 foreign nationals from 13 countries hostage as human shields.

More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centres continue to operate in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and are fully equipped with recreational facilities and hot meals. The refugees are treated individually and provided with qualified medical and psychological assistance. A sufficient number of buses have been placed at the border crossing points to transport people to their chosen places of residence or to temporary accommodation centres.

Federal executive authorities, together with the subjects of the Russian Federation, various NGOs, patriotic movements, continue to accumulate and distribute humanitarian aid. More than 22,500 tons of basic necessities, food and medicines have been prepared at the collection points.

Since March 2nd, 9,780.3 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 772 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 6 actions in Kherson region, as well as in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, during which 259 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

On April 8th, 10 humanitarian actions have been planned and are currently being carried out in Kherson region, in Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, during which 197 tons of basic necessities, medicine and food will be distributed.

4. Situation at the Black Sea

77 foreign vessels from 18 countries remain blocked in Ukrainian ports. The threat of shelling and high mine danger created by official Kiev in its internal waters and territorial sea prevents vessels from safely leaving the ports and reaching the open sea.

In confirmation of this, the Russian Federation is opening daily from 08:00 to 19:00 (Moscow time) a humanitarian corridor, which is a safe lane south-west of Ukraine's territorial sea, 80 nautical miles long and 3 nautical miles wide.

Information on the operation of the Maritime Humanitarian Corridor is announced in navigational warnings through the World Navigation Alert Service (Area 3, Cadiz, Spain).

Every 15 minutes every day on international VHF radio channels 14 and 16, the Russian Navy transmits messages in English and Russian containing detailed information on the operation of the Maritime Humanitarian Corridor.

At the same time, the Kiev authorities continue to fail to acknowledge and shy away from engaging on the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area.

The Russian Federation is taking a full range of exhaustive measures to ensure civilian navigation in the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov and the Mediterranean.

In addition, on April 8, 2022, the Russian side handed over the rescue vessel Sapphire to Ukraine free of charge and without any conditions in the transfer area agreed in advance with the International Maritime Rescue Service (RR-2).

Once again, Russia calls on the International Maritime Organization and the management of ship-owning companies to influence official Kiev to take measures aimed at unblocking and securing the departure of foreign vessels from Ukrainian ports.

The Kiev regime has not abandoned its attempts to evacuate the leaders of Azov nationalist regiment and foreign mercenaries from Mariupol. Previous actions to evacuate them by helicopters have failed.

On the evening of April 8th, the Kiev regime made another unsuccessful attempt to evacuate the Ukrainian Nazi leaders by sea.

The Ukrainian Apache, a Maltese-flagged dry-cargo ship assigned to the Maltese port of Valetta, was sailing in a caravan of ships from the Gulf of Taganrog to the Kerch Strait in the nighttime.

At 22:38 Moscow time, 30 km southeast of Mariupol, a dry-cargo ship suddenly changed its course and attempted to break through to the Mariupol seaport blocked from the sea by the Black Sea Fleet. The Ukrainian dry cargo ship did not respond to Russian border guards' demands to contact them through the international channel and continued heading in the direction of Mariupol port.

Warning artillery firing by two border patrol ships along the vessel's course did not cause the dry cargo ship to change course or slow down. While heading towards Mariupol port, the vessel was engaged in radio communication, transmitting the messages "I am 'Maniac', coming for you". At the same time, signal fires were observed on the shore.

To block the movement of the intruder vessel, from 22.53 to 23.30, the Black Sea Fleet and the border patrol ships opened artillery fire on the Apache dry-cargo ship.

A direct hit caused a fire in the stern of the ship. The Ukrainian dry cargo ship then went adrift, the crew got in touch with the border ships with a request to cease fire and confirmed their readiness to comply with all the demands of the Russian sailors.

No crew members on the ship were injured as a result of the firing. The fire was extinguished by the ship's crew themselves.

After being inspected, the Ukrainian Apache and its crew are convoyed to the Yeysk port.

5. Situation on the battlefields

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

During the day, operational-tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces and missile troops hit 65 military assets of Ukraine.

Among them: 4 command and communication hubs, 3 logistics depots, as well as 41 strong points and areas of Ukrainian military equipment concentration.

Russian AAD shot down 3 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle in the air.

2 near Mariupol and Kalininskoe, and 1 Bayraktar TB-2 near Sakhnovschina, Kharkov region.


In total, from February 24th, 2022, 127 aircraft and 98 helicopters, 428 unmanned aerial vehicles, 2,037 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 229 multiple launch rocket systems, 886 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,941 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.


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Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 41. Kiev once again used Tochka-U in Donbass

 

April 12th, 2022

1. Tochka-U again is used by Kiev after Kramatorsk attack

 Late evening April 10th, 2022 the AFU fired cluster missile Tochka-U twice: one versus Donetsk (it was intercepted), and against Novoaydar (the LPR).

On Sunday, April 10th, the LPR reported that Ukrainian troops fired at the village of Novoaydar with a Tochka-U missile, resulting in the death of a woman. According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Republic, the shelling of Novoaydar led to the destruction of nine houses in the village. "As a result of this shelling, a warehouse with mineral fertilizers, namely ammonium nitrate, was damaged in the settlement of Novoaydar, which detonated, causing secondary damage to both residential buildings and industrial structures".

2. Humanitarian assistance continues despite Ukrainian blockade

The Russian Federation, in strict compliance with the norms of international humanitarian law, continues its systematic and coordinated work to provide comprehensive assistance to the population of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, as well as to civilians and foreign nationals in the liberated territories of Ukraine.

The Russian Armed Forces have been opening humanitarian corridors in the Kharkov and Mariupol directions daily since 10:00AM (Moscow time). In response to humanitarian initiatives by Germany, Turkey and France to evacuate civilians and foreign nationals from Mariupol, also provide humanitarian routes daily open an additional humanitarian corridor to Berdyansk and onwards in two directions: the first by land transport to the Republic of Crimea or Zaporozhye (to Kiev-controlled territories), the second by sea transport to selected destinations.

The Ukrainian side has never confirmed the security guarantees of the humanitarian corridor in question and continues to deliberately obstruct the implementation of these humanitarian initiatives.

The Russian side is ready to deploy humanitarian corridors in any other directions as soon as possible and to ensure the safe evacuation of civilians.

The Ukrainian side has announced 10 corridors in the Zaporozhye and Donetsk directions for the current day, of which, as before, none towards Russia.

Over the past 24 hours, without the participation of the Ukrainian authorities, 26,676 people, including 3,447 children, have been evacuated to Russia from the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics and dangerous areas of Ukraine, while a total of 704,434 people, including 135,153 children, have been evacuated since the special military operation began.

The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 90,149 vehicles, of which 3,169 per day.

In Mariupol, also without any involvement from the Ukrainian side, 134,299 people have already been rescued from the lawlessness of the nationalists, including 716 in the past 24 hours.

A daily analysis of appeals by Ukrainian citizens to the hotline of the Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for humanitarian response in Ukraine, to federal executive authorities, various public organizations, as well as constituent entities of the Russian Federation, to family, friends and acquaintances living in Russia shows that a significant part of the population forcibly held by nationalists in Ukrainian cities is still seeking any opportunity to evacuate to Russian territory.

Over the past day, another 925 such appeals have been received, and in total there are already 2,743,623 of 2,126 settlements in Ukraine in the database.

Ukrainian nationalists continue to hold 6,362 foreign nationals from 13 countries hostage as human shields.

More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centres continue to operate in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and are fully equipped with recreational facilities and hot meals. The refugees are treated individually and provided with qualified medical and psychological assistance.

A sufficient number of buses have been placed at the border crossing points to transport people to their chosen places of residence or to temporary accommodation centers.

2. Distribution of the humanitarian aid

Federal executive authorities, together with the subjects of the Russian Federation, various public organizations, patriotic movements, continue to accumulate humanitarian aid. More than 22,500 tons of basic necessities, food and medicines have been prepared at the collection points.

Since March 2nd, 9,977.3 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 781 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 6 actions in Kherson region, as well as in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, during which 197 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

On April 9th, 12 humanitarian actions have been planned and are currently being carried out in Kharkov, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, during which 338 tons of basic necessities, medicine and food will be distributed.

Russian and the DPR troops have captured several Ukrainian soldiers who corrected the fire against humanitarian aid supply routes coming from Russia.

3. Kiev still blockades the Black Sea ports

Still 77 foreign vessels from 18 countries remain blocked in Ukrainian ports. The threat of shelling and high mine danger created by official Kiev in its internal waters and territorial sea prevents vessels from safely leaving the ports and reaching the open sea.

In confirmation of this, the Russian Federation is opening daily from 08:00 to 19:00 (Moscow time) a humanitarian corridor, which is a safe route south-west of Ukraine's territorial sea, 80 nautical miles long and 3 nautical miles wide.

Information on the operation of the Maritime Humanitarian Corridor is announced in navigational warnings through the World Navigation Alert Service (Area 3, Cadiz, Spain).

Every 15 minutes every day on international VHF radio channels 14 and 16, the Russian Navy transmits messages in English and Russian containing detailed information on the operation of the Maritime Humanitarian Corridor.

At the same time, the Kiev authorities continue to fail to acknowledge and shy away from engaging on the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area.

The Russian Federation is taking a full range of exhaustive measures to ensure civilian navigation in the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov and the Mediterranean.

Once again, Russia calls on the International Maritime Organization and the management of ship-owning companies to influence official Kiev to take measures aimed at unblocking and securing the departure of foreign vessels from Ukrainian ports.

Russian Navy released two MS “Tzarevna” and “Lydia Augusta” and their 47 crew  members, including citizens of Azerbaijan, Egypt, Russia and Ukraine seized by Ukrainian nationalists.

It was announced on April 11th that Mariupol sea port has been captured by the DPR and Russian troops.

4. Russian stance is reiterated

The unwillingness of the Kiev regime to stop the genocide of Russians and implement its obligations under international treaties have led to the special military operation, Russian Ambassador to the USA Anatoly Antonov said in an interview for Newsweek April 8, 2022.

He said that the West is inciting further bloodshed in Ukraine by pumping the country with weapons. "Western states are directly involved in the current events as they continue to pump Ukraine with weapons and ammunition, thereby inciting further bloodshed," he noted.

"We warn that such actions are dangerous and provocative as they are directed against our state," the envoy emphasized. "They can lead the US and the Russian Federation onto the path of direct military confrontation. Any supply of weapons and military equipment from the West, performed by transport convoys through the territory of Ukraine, is a legitimate military target for our Armed Forces," Antonov added.

Antonov repeated Moscow’s stance regarding the conflict resolution in Ukraine.  It includes the demand for an unconditional consideration of Russia's security interests, the demilitarization and denazification of the Ukrainian state, ensuring its neutral and non-nuclear status, as well as the recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea and the independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics.

5. Warning about another provocations

Kiev is preparing new provocations with a goal to accuse Russia of violence against Ukrainian civilians in the Sumy region, according to the head of Russia's National Defense Management Centre, Mikhail Mizintsev.

He said that the "staged provocations" in the north-eastern region of Ukraine are being prepared by the Kiev regime under guidance of British special services.

"Representatives of Ukrainian and western media have been invited to the city of Seredina-Buda in the Sumy region, which was previously under the control of Russian troops, to film the staged stories," Mizintsev said during a briefing. "At the same time, to conceal the provocation and prevent it from being exposed by real witnesses, a curfew was introduced in the city, and the local population was forcibly evicted from the places where filming is set to take place."

Mizintsev went on to break down the scenario of the provocation, saying that "British directors" are collecting bodies in the basement of a residential building in one of the towns in the Sumy region, with the corpses to be presented later as the alleged victims of the Russian troops. According to the scenario, Mizintsev said, the Russian military allegedly committed mass killings and atrocities when leaving the region.


FOOD FOR THOUGHT

A primitive lie at the state level leads to its repetition and permissiveness, until it is revealed and refuted professionally


6. Situation on the battlefield

Mercenaries from different nations still are entrenched in Mariupol. Radio communication monitored there revealed that they speak six different foreign languages, including Danish, English, French, Georgian and others.

A Governmental Chechen delegation vising liberated areas in Ukraine has collected two types of manuals how to prepare explosive devices and describing methods to frighten local civilians by arranging staged video shows. Some manuals have been written and adapted for teenagers

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

On Sunday April 10th, high-precision sea-based Kalibr missiles on the southern outskirts of Dnipropetrovsk destroyed equipment from a S-300 anti-aircraft missile division supplied to the Kiev regime by a European country presumably by Slovakia, which was hidden in a hangar. Four S-300 launchers and up to 25 Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel were hit, too.

During the night, high-precision air-based missiles near Velikaya Novoselovka destroyed weapons and military equipment repair base of the Ukrainian air defence forces, including Buk-M1 and Osa-AKM anti-aircraft missile systems. 2 ammunition depots near Nikolaev and Zhovtnevoe have also been destroyed, as well as a radar of S-300 anti-aitcraft missile system in Uspenovki area. As a result of high-precision strikes, 9 tanks, 5 Akatsiya 2S3 self-propelled artillery systems, 5 BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers and over 60 nationalists were destroyed in Vozdvizhenka-2 and Ivanovka, Donetsk Region. Russian air defence means shot down 1 Ukrainian Su-27 aircraft in the air near Izyum.In addition, 3 unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed near Balakleya in Kharkov Region, Gulyai Polye and Volnovakha, as well as 1 Valkyrie drone near Kaliniskoe in Nikolaev Region.

Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopter has been shot down near Posad-Pokrovskoe, Kherson Region, by concentrated small arms fire.

April 11th operational-tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit 78 Ukrainian military assets. Among them: 3 command posts, 1 radar for illumination and guidance, 3 positions of short-range anti-aircraft missile systems, 4 ammunition depots, as well as 58 strong points and areas of Ukrainian military equipment concentration.

April 12th operational-tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit 38 Ukrainian military facilities. Among them: 1 ammunition depot in Toshkivka, Lugansk Region, as well as 8 areas of concentration of Ukrainian weapons and military equipment in Glazunovka, Pyatigorskoe and Prishib in Kharkov Region. Russian Air Defence means shot down 2 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the air over Ochakov and Nikolayev.


In total, from February 24th 130 aircraft and 99 helicopters, 244 anti-aircraft missile systems S-300, Buk-M1, Osa AKM, 445 unmanned aerial vehicles, 2,153 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 241 multiple launch rocket systems, 924 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,063 special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 42. Ukrainian troops: the largest mass surrender

April 13th, 2022

1. Mass surrender of Ukrainian Marines

1,026 service members of Ukraine’s 36th Marines Brigade have surrendered in Mariupol, the Russian Defense Ministry announced on April 13th 2022.

According to a Russian military report, the troops laid down arms at the Illich Steel and Iron Works, a giant metal mill they were using as a stronghold against Russian forces. The mass surrender followed a report by the Russian Defense Ministry, which said around 100 Ukrainian marines enhanced by tanks and ACVs have made an attempt to break out from the factory, but failed.

A total of 1,026 service members, including 162 officers, were among the captives, ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov said. He said 47 of the troops were female. 151 wounded Ukrainian servicemen of the 36th Marine Brigade received primary medical care immediately on the spot, after that they were all taken to the Mariupol city hospital for further treatment.  The Ukrainian POWs denied rumors that nerve gases or chemical agents have been used against them. But they have revealed other reasons of their surrender.

A desperate message was posted on the 36th Brigade’s social media channels on April 11th. The text claimed the unit had been neglected by the Ukrainian military leadership, who left the soldiers to fight and die without any assistance despite opportunities to do so. “For over a month the marines fought with no supplies of ammo, without food, without water, pretty much drinking from puddles, and died in droves,” the message read. 

So far, no Ukrainian POW has ever lodged complaints of his or her mistreatment by Russian Armed Forces, the DPR and LPR troops.

Russia will perceive convoys delivering arms from NATO member-states to Ukraine legitimate targets for its military once they reach Ukrainian territory, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov warned in an interview released on April 13th.


FOOD FOR THOUGHT

How long the special military operation will last? It will not depend on Zelensky.

It will depend on his masters in Washington, London, Paris, Berlin and other NATO capitals.

 


2. Zelensky ordered to detain MP

Zelensky ordered the Security Service of Ukraine to illegally detain Viktor Medvedchuk, MP, the head of the Political Council of the Ukrainian party "Opposition Platform - For Life". His wife, Oksana Marchenko, appealed to Zelensky to release her spouse. She believes that he was detained due to political reasons and has never left the country.

3. Humanitarian aid is distributed

The Russian Armed Forces have been opening humanitarian corridors in the Kharkov and Mariupol directions daily since 10:00AM (Moscow time). The Russian side is ready to deploy humanitarian corridors in any other directions as soon as possible and to ensure the safe evacuation of civilians.

The Ukrainian side has announced 10 corridors in the Zaporozhye and Donetsk directions for the current day, of which, as before, none has been established towards Russia.

In response to humanitarian initiatives by Germany, Turkey and France to evacuate civilians and foreign nationals from Mariupol, also provide humanitarian routes daily open an additional humanitarian corridor to Berdyansk and onwards in two directions: the first by land transport to the Republic of Crimea or Zaporozhye (to Kiev-controlled territories), the second by sea transport to selected destinations.

The Russian Federation's Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine, in co-operation with the authorised federal executive authorities, continues to carefully record the continuing egregious facts of the inhumane treatment of civilians.

Here are just some of them over the past day:

a) in Kharkov (Kiev, Nemishlyanskiy and Shevchenkovskiy districts), militants of nationalist formations continue to set up positions in residential buildings, kindergartens and schools, as well as to place heavy weapons in densely populated neighbourhoods. At the same time, the evacuation of civilians has been banned since 10 April 2022;

b) the AFU units in secondary schools equipped firing positions and deployed armoured vehicles in Severodonetsk (school No. 4) in Lugansk People's Republic, as well as in Serebryanka (school No. 7) and Belozerskoye (schools No. 13, 14) in Donetsk People's Republic;

c) nationalists in Chernigov Region continue to conduct raids on private households, during which, under threats of physical violence and murder, they forcibly seize food, valuables, and personal vehicles from people.

The Kiev authorities, under the patronage of the collective West led by the USA, continue to collect pseudo-evidence of Russia's guilt. For this purpose, a curfew and a complete blockade of the city will be imposed in Irpin from 06:00AM on 12 April 2022 until 09:00AM on 15 April 2022, with only security forces and "obscure" volunteers allowed to enter during this period. It has been reliably established that this period of time will be used by Kiev to stage a provocation with cynical staged filming and further promotion of the fake by the Western media.

The Kiev regime is once again showing its true criminal nature, as well as its complete disregard for all norms of international humanitarian law.

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles imposed by the Ukrainian side, over the past day, without the participation of Kiev, 25,560 people were evacuated from dangerous areas, 3,482 of them children.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation February 24th, 765,779 people have already been evacuated, of which 144,105 are children. The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 99,603 vehicles, of which 3,187 per day.

In Mariupol, also without any involvement from the Ukrainian side, 136,284 people have already been rescued from the lawlessness of the nationalists, including 625 in the past 24 hours.

Over the past day, 879 appeals made by Ukrainian citizens have been received, and in total there are already 2,746,418 of 2,126 settlements in Ukraine in the database.

Ukrainian nationalists continue to hold 6,253 foreign nationals from 11 countries hostage as human shields.

More than 22 tons of basic necessities, food and medicines have been prepared at the collection points. Since March 2nd, 11,242.8 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 810 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 7 actions in Zaporozhye, Kharkov and Kherson regions, as well as in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, during which 435.5 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

3. Situation at the Black Sea

76 foreign vessels from 18 countries remain blocked in Ukrainian ports. The threat of shelling and high mine danger created by official Kiev in its internal waters and territorial sea prevents vessels from safely leaving the ports and reaching the open sea.

In confirmation of this, the Russian Federation is opening daily from 08:00 to 19:00 (Moscow time) a humanitarian corridor, which is a safe lane south-west of Ukraine's territorial sea, 80 nautical miles long and 3 nautical miles wide.

Detailed information in English and Russian on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridor is broadcast daily every 15 minutes on VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels.

At the same time, the Kiev authorities continue to avoid engaging with representatives of states and ship-owning companies to resolve the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area. At the International Maritime Organization, Kiev refuses to discuss these issues demonstratively avoiding dialogue.

The Russian Federation is taking a full range of exhaustive measures to ensure civilian navigation in the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov and the Mediterranean.

Once again Russia warns the entire international community that there is a threat of Ukrainian mines drifting off their anchor along the coasts of the Black Sea states. Once again, Russian side calls on the International Maritime Organization and the management of ship-owning companies to influence official Kiev to take measures aimed at unblocking and securing the departure of foreign vessels from Ukrainian ports.

4. Developments on the battleground

The AFU still continue to shell the DPR and LPR by heavy weapons, especially hitting living quarters and social infrastructure.

In the last 24 hours AFU shelled the DPR 17 times with 116 large caliber shell of 120 mm and 122 mm. Two civilians have been killed, 65 houses have been damaged by Ukrainian fire. The AFU shelled the LPR five times.

From April 2014 AFU used to shell the DPR and LPR each day.

On other hand, during last night, Russian troops fired high-precision sea- and air-based missiles that destroyed 2 large missile and artillery weapons depots of the AFU near Sadovoe and Chudnov. 4 Ukrainian helicopters - 2 Mi-24 and 2 Mi-8 - were also destroyed at Mirgorod military airfield. Operational-tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit 46 military targets in Ukraine. Among them: 2 command posts and 1 radar station near Borovoe, 2 multiple rocket launchers, and 4 areas of Ukrainian military equipment concentration near Borovoe and Peski-Radkovskoe.  Russian AAD shot down 2 Ukrainian UAV in the air over Afanasievka.

Missile troops and artillery hit 693 enemy assets: 676 areas of Ukrainian personnel and military equipment concentration, 11 command posts and 5 logistics depots.


In total, from the beginning of the special military operation 130 aircraft and 103 helicopters, 244 anti-aircraft missile systems S-300, Buk-M1, Osa-AKM, 447 unmanned aerial vehicles, 2,169 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 243 multiple launch rocket systems, 931 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,076 special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.


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Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

 

Report # 44. Tragic date: Eight years ago (April 14th, 2014) Ukraine began massive aggression VS Donbass

1. Humanitarian situation

The Russian side still opens humanitarian corridors on the Kharkov and Mariupol directions towards Russia daily since 10:00AM (Moscow time), also provide humanitarian routes daily open an additional humanitarian corridor to Berdyansk and onwards in two directions: the first by land transport to the Republic of Crimea or Zaporozhye (to Kiev-controlled territories), the second by sea transport to selected destinations. The Russian side is ready to deploy humanitarian corridors in any other directions as soon as possible and to ensure the safe evacuation of civilians. Currently, the Russian Armed Forces strictly observe the ceasefire on all routes, including those declared by the Ukrainian side.

The Ukrainian side has announced 10 corridors in the Zaporozhye and Donetsk directions for the current day, of which, as before, none towards Russia.

The Russian Federation's Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response, in co-operation with the authorised federal executive authorities, continues to carefully record the continuing egregious facts of the inhumane treatment of civilians by Kiev authorities:

in Svetlodarsk, Donetsk People's Republic, militants of Ukrainian armed formations have mined the dam of the water reservoir of the Uglegorska thermal power plant (Lugansk River); in the case of an explosion, the town of Svetlodarsk, the villages of Mironovskiy, Luganskoe and a number of others with a total population of over 15,000 would be in the potential flood zone; in addition, after the water leaves, the entire flooded area the population's life support system (sewage, water supply, water treatment facilities with chemical tanks) will be damaged, which will lead to a sharp deterioration of the sanitary and epidemiological situation and the spread of infectious diseases in Bakhmutsky district;

in Kostantinovka (a major hub of the Donetsk railway) in Kramatorsk district, neo-Nazis have mined a road overpass over the railway tracks on Belousova Street, which they plan to destroy in the near future and accuse the Russian Armed Forces of destroying critical civilian infrastructure. Another fake "Russian atrocities" will immediately be replicated in the "independent" Western media.

Such actions by Kiev once again demonstrate an inhuman attitude towards the fate of its own citizens and show a complete disregard for all norms of morality and international humanitarian law.

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles imposed by the Ukrainian side, over the past day, without the participation of Kiev, 14,606 people were evacuated from dangerous areas, 2,328 of them children, and in total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 798,237 people have already been evacuated, of which 149,419 are children. The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 104,487 personal vehicles, of which 138,014 people have already been rescued from the lawlessness of the nationalists, including 815 from Mariupol via a humanitarian corridor to the east, without any involvement of the Ukrainian side.

Over the past day, another 573 such appeals have been received, and in total there are already 2,747,729 of 2,127 settlements in Ukraine in the database.

Ukrainian nationalists continue to hold 6,224 foreign nationals from 11 countries hostage as human shields.

More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centres continue to operate in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and are fully equipped with recreational facilities and hot meals. The refugees are treated individually and provided with qualified medical and psychological assistance.

A sufficient number of buses have been placed at the border crossing points to transport people to their chosen places of residence or to temporary accommodation centres.

More than 22 tons of basic necessities, food and medicines have been prepared at the collection points.

Since March 2, 11,663.8 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 820 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 6 actions in Kherson region, as well as in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, during which 226 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

On April 14, 14 humanitarian actions have been planned and are currently being carried out in Kherson region, in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, during which 502.1 tons of basic necessities, medicine and food will be distributed.

2. Situation at the Black Sea

76 foreign vessels from 18 countries remain blocked in Ukrainian ports. The threat of shelling and high mine danger created by official Kiev in its internal waters and territorial sea prevents vessels from safely leaving the ports and reaching the open sea.

In confirmation of this, the Russian Federation is opening daily from 08:00 to 19:00 (Moscow time) a humanitarian corridor, which is a safe lane south-west of Ukraine's territorial sea, 80 nautical miles long and 3 nautical miles wide.Detailed information in English and Russian on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridor is broadcast daily every 15 minutes on VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels.

At the same time, the Kiev authorities continue to avoid engaging with representatives of states and ship-owning companies to resolve the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area. At the International Maritime Organization, Ukraine's representatives refuse to discuss issues of ship departures security, demonstratively avoiding dialogue.

The Russian Federation is taking a full range of exhaustive measures to ensure civilian navigation in the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov and the Mediterranean.

Once again Russia warns the entire international community that there is a threat of Ukrainian mines drifting off their anchor along the coasts of the Black Sea states. Once again, Russia calls on the International Maritime Organization and the management of ship-owning companies to influence official Kiev to take measures aimed at unblocking and securing the departure of foreign vessels from Ukrainian ports.

3. NATO will enlarge NW delivery systems in Europe

NATO planners are updating the US “nuclear sharing” program to account for most European allies planning to buy F-35 joint strike fighter jets, the military bloc’s director of nuclear policy said this week. Lockheed Martin’s fifth-generation fighter has been embraced by multiple US allies, including most recently Germany, despite the Pentagon’s own misgivings about the program. “We’re moving fast and furiously towards F-35 modernization and incorporating those into our planning and into our exercising and things like that as those capabilities come online,” Jessica Cox, director of the NATO nuclear policy directorate in Brussels, said on April 13th, adding that “By the end of the decade, most if not all of our allies will have transitioned” to the F-35.

Cox spoke during an online discussion hosted by the Advanced Nuclear Weapons Alliance Deterrence Center (ANWA DC), a US think tank, according to Defense News.

Her remarks come a month after Berlin said Germany would replace its aging Tornado jets with F-35s, committing to buy up to three dozen and specifically citing the nuclear sharing mission as factoring in the decision. Following Germany’s decision to buy a fleet of F-35s, NATO planners have begun updating the alliance’s nuclear sharing mechanics to account for the jet’s next-gen capabilities, a key NATO official said this week.

She admitted that that other NATO allies currently operating the F-35, such as Poland, Denmark, and Norway, might be asked to support nuclear sharing missions in the future, adding that NATO “will also have some operational advantages with the F-35 since there will be opportunities for enhanced networking and integration across the force.”

In addition to Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, and Turkey are currently hosting an estimated 150 US nuclear weapons – mainly B-61 gravity bombs, intended to be carried by smaller fighter-bombers like the Tornado or the F-16 – according to estimates by British think tank Chatham House.

Finland and Sweden have recently voiced a desire to join NATO, and Helsinki already announced it would buy 64 F-35s in early February. Russia has responded by saying it would be forced to reposition some of its troops and nuclear deterrent accordingly.

4. The USA will allocate extra $ 800 mln to Kiev

U.S. President Joe Biden has announced an additional $800 million in heavy weapons the country will speed to Ukrainian forces, which will include more than a dozen heavy-artillery howitzers, hundreds of armored vehicles and nearly a dozen helicopters, all from U.S. stockpiles.

Especially with the 18 towed 155mm howitzers and 40,000 artillery rounds, which the U.S. is providing for the first time, the Pentagon hopes to help even the odds against Russian forces, as the war enters a new phase, concentrated in eastern Ukraine. Moscow is now expected to bolster and resupply its forces in the Donbas region, where they can take advantage of shorter supply lines and open ground to employ tanks and more long-range fires, artillery and rocket capabilities, Pentagon officials said.

5. Developments on the battlefields

High-precision, long-range sea-based Kalibr missiles struck a military facility on the outskirts of Kiev tonight. The strike on Zhulyansk machine-building plant Vizar destroyed the production and repair workshops of long- and medium-range anti-aircraft missile systems as well as anti-ship missiles.

The number and scale of missile strikes against assets in Kiev will increase in response to any terrorist attacks or sabotage on Russian territory by the Kiev nationalist regime.

Russian air defence means near Gorodnya, Chernigov Region, have shot down 1 Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter with S-400 anti-aircraft missile system while it was returning to its airbase, after attacking civilians in Klimovo, Bryansk Region on April 14th.

Ukrainian Air Force Su-27 fighter jet has been shot down near Lozovaya, Kharkov Region. Also, 8 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down near Izyum, Levkovka, Novaya Astrakhan, Novaya Kuban, Shchastlivoe, Chernobaevka and Cherniy Sokol.

During the night, 7 enemy assets were hit by high-precision air-based missiles. among them: Tochka-U tactical missile launcher and a temporary deployment point of Ukrainian nationalist group, including up to 20 armoured vehicles and up to 50 nationalists, were destroyed near Yasenovoe; the Ukrainian military equipment and weapons have been destroyed near Dergachi, Novoelizavetovka and Povstanskoe; missile and artillery weapons and fuel depots were destroyed in Nikolaev and Parutino.

Missile troops have eliminated a mercenary unit of a Polish private military campaign in Izyumskoe, Kharkov Region. Up to 30 Polish mercenaries were killed.

A total of 221 Ukrainian assets were also hit, including: 12 command posts, 176 strongholds and areas of enemy manpower concentration, 12 artillery firing positions were suppressed.

Operational-tactical aviation hit 13 military assets of Ukraine during the night. Among them: 2 depots of missile and artillery weapons, as well as 10 areas of concentration of Ukrainian weapons and military equipment.

Army aviation destroyed areas of manpower and Ukrainian military equipment concentration, including 3 strong points, 9 armoured vehicles and vehicles of various purposes in Gusarovka and Volobuevka.

From the beginning of the special military operation In total, 132 aircraft and 105 helicopters, 245 anti-aircraft missile systems S-300, Buk-M1, Osa-AKM, 456 unmanned aerial vehicles, 2,213 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 249 multiple launch rocket systems, 966 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,110 special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed.

 

 


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 45. Russia warned foreign countries supplying deadly arms to Ukraine

1. Russia officially warned countries supplying arms to Kiev

Russian MFA has sent diplomatic notes to all countries, including the United States, who are supplying weapons to Ukraine, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson told Interfax. 25 suppliers have been mentioned by the Russian Investigation Committee, including 21 NATO member states.

According a reliable source, the notes stated that the supply of weapons to Kiev aggravates the situation in Ukraine and that it can lead to "unpredictable consequences."

There are more and more voices in Russia in favour of blocking by military means huge delivery of deadly weapons to Ukraine who have behaved as aggressor in 2014-2015 and up to now is acting like a war criminal not only towards civilians in Donbass, wishing not to live in a failed nazi state, but versus its own Ukrainian citizens who are deeply dissatisfied with the policy Zelensky who has plunged the country into abyss and destruction.

Russians are very angry that Western lethal weapons poured into Ukraine are used to kill Russians and Ukrainians.

 Russians are demanding that Moscow should act more vigorously, decisively  and effectively to protect both nations from extinction due to war-mongering policy pusued by the USA and NATO.

Russia experts suggested that Moscow, which has labeled weapons convoys coming into the country as legitimate military targets, but has not thus far attacked them, must be preparing to do so very urgently and without any hesitation.

A Ukrainian cargo aircraft packed with NATO weapons has been knocked down near Odessa April 16th.

2. Humanitarian situation is still complicated

Every day from 10:00AM (Moscow time), the Russian side opens humanitarian corridors in the Kharkov and Mariupol directions towards Russia, as well as an additional route from Mariupol to Berdyansk and further in two directions: the first – by land transport to the Republic of Crimea or Zaporozhye (to the territories controlled by the Kiev authorities), the second – by sea transport in selected directions. The Russian Federation is also ready to deploy humanitarian corridors in any other directions as soon as possible and ensure the safe evacuation of civilians.

The Ukrainian side has announced nine corridors on the Zaporozhye and Donetsk directions for the current day, of which there is not one in the direction of Russia.

The Armed Forces of Russia, as well as the formations of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, strictly observe the ceasefire on all routes, including those declared by the Ukrainian side.

Unfortunately, in the Koryukovsky district of the Chernigov region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine mined country roads, as well as the sides of paved roads passing near the settlements of Veliky Shchemel, Naumovka and Holmy. Currently, the preparation of the next fake messages is being completed with the involvement of reporters from Western news agencies to further accuse the Russian Armed Forces of deliberately mining civilian objects.;

AFU units equipped firing positions and deployed armored vehicles in education institutions: in the city of Nikolaev (kindergarten No. 51), the village of Korolki (school, sports club) of the Sumy region, the settlement of Novaya Vodolaga (Lyceum No. 1) of the Kharkov region. The particular cynicism of the Kiev authorities is that these positions are placed in civilian objects that the Russian Armed Forces have never considered as targets for fire damage. Once again, we remind you that the Russian units strike point-by-point only at military facilities.

In the city of Liman, Kramatorsk district of the Donetsk People's Republic, this week, from April 11 to April 15, 2022, through the mechanism of the imposed curfew, nationalist battalions conducted total apartment-by-apartment search operations in order to identify pro-Russian local residents, as well as signs of assistance to the formations of the Donetsk People's Republic. All suspects (with their surnames, names, patronymics of 837 Ukrainians have been reliably established) were detained, are currently being subjected to brutal torture, and threatened with physical violence against their relatives. In the course of these forceful raids, the nationalists forcibly seized valuable property and food, allegedly for the needs of territorial defence.

Such actions of the Ukrainian authorities testify to their inhumane attitude to the fate of civilians and complete disregard for all norms of morality and international humanitarian law.

Over the past day, 23,083 people have been evacuated from Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, without any participation of the Ukrainian side, from dangerous areas of Ukraine to Russia, including 2,318 children, and in total, 821,320 people have been evacuated since the beginning of the special military operation, of which 151 737 children. The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 108,995 units of personal motor transport, of which 4,508 per day.

From Mariupol through the humanitarian corridor in the eastern direction, also without the participation of the Ukrainian side, 138,733 people have already been rescued from the lawlessness organized by the nationalists, including 719 over the past day.

There are enough buses at the checkpoints to transport people to their chosen places of residence or temporary accommodation.

In the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, more than 9.5 thousand temporary accommodation facilities continue to operate, which are fully equipped with all necessary property, they provide places for rest and hot meals. Individual work is carried out with arriving refugees, they are provided with qualified medical and psychological assistance.

Over the past day, the hotline of the Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, federal executive authorities, subjects of the Russian Federation and various public organizations received 836 appeals from citizens of Ukraine, and there are 2,748,565 of them in the database from 2,128 settlements of Ukraine.

Ukrainian nationalists continue to hold 6,198 foreign citizens from nine countries hostage as a human shield.

3. Distribution of humanitarian assistance is uninterrupted. However, from Russia only

The federal executive authorities, together with the subjects of the Russian Federation, various public organizations and patriotic movements, continue to accumulate humanitarian aid.

Since March 2, the Russian Federation has already delivered 11 951.9 tons of humanitarian cargo to Ukraine, 834 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 14 in the Donetsk, Lugansk people's republics, Kharkov and Kherson regions over the past day, during which 288.1 tons of basic necessities and food were transferred to the civilian population.

During the advance of the Russian troops in liberated settlements, with the support of local residents, peaceful life and the organization of daily life are being established.

Convoys of Russian units participating in a special military operation are advancing through these settlements. Combat service support units deliver the necessary goods to the designated areas. The security of the advance of units and the movement of convoys is carried out by attack helicopters of the Russian AF.

In the liberated settlements of the Kharkov region, humanitarian supplies are delivered to local residents, primary medical care is provided.

On April 15, 2022, three humanitarian actions are being held in the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, the Kherson region, during which 315 tons of basic necessities and food are being transferred to the population.

There are no signs of  humanitarian assistance delivered to Ukrainians from the NATO and the EU.

4. The situation at the Black Sea has not improved

76 foreign vessels from 18 countries continue to be blocked in Ukrainian ports. The threat of shelling and high mine danger created by official Kiev in its internal waters and on the territorial sea do not allow vessels to freely enter the open sea.

The reflection of the situation in the Black Sea area is the same like that of described in the Report # 44.

5. Russian MFA once again focused on biolabs in Ukraine

Russian MFA made a statement April 15th on U.SD.-Ukrainian biolabs in Ukraine.

It said that as a result of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine (SMO), Russia’s Armed Forces found documents that shed some light on the bio-military programme implemented by the U.S. Defence Department in Ukraine. The researchers in the programme were studying the most dangerous pathogens – potential biological agents for biological weapons that have natural focuses in both Ukraine and Russia. They were also researching ways that epidemics spread based on these agents. The scale of work makes it obvious that a considerable, and probably the most important, part of the information on the American military programme remains concealed from the international community.

Speaking at a US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations hearing on March 9, 2022, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland, said Washington was trying to prevent the transfer of some research materials from Ukrainian bio-laboratories to Russian forces. During press briefings on March 7, 10, 17, 24 and 31, Chief of the Russian Armed Forces’ Radiation, Chemical and Biological Defence Forces Igor Kirillov described the US bio-military activities in Ukraine, based on the information obtained during the SMO in Ukraine by the Armed Forces of Russia. He also set forth conclusions based on expert analysis. Researchers continue to study these materials.

Russia has made public the facts that have come to light to date at the UN and other international organisations and called on the US authorities to provide detailed explanations, but, predictably, Washington does not appear to be ready to share with the public any meaningful information on its military biological programme in Ukraine.

Furthermore, clearly, the White House thinks that offence is the best defence and has launched yet another propaganda campaign centered on the false assertion that our country’s efforts to draw the attention of the international community to the activities of US military biologists in Ukraine are allegedly nothing more than a smoke screen, which, they say, Moscow will try to use to cover up the potential use of biological or chemical weapons during the special military operation that is conducted by the Russian Armed Forces.

This crude attempt by the US to divert public attention from this dangerously explosive issue of US-controlled biological laboratories in Ukraine and to drown it in this “apocalyptic sensation” was – at first glance unexpectedly – strongly supported by German political leadership. A number of leading German politicians and top officials, including Federal Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz, have released statements that mimic the US narrative in the form of righteous threats and warnings directed at Russia. Berlin’s official proactive verbal stance remains in line with the strategy that it has pursued for a long time now in the context of the Ukraine crisis (which isn’t helpful in settling it now and which earlier led the Minsk process into a dead-end with its deliberate pro-Kiev slant), but nevertheless stands out in its blatant cynicism of the overall flow of anti-Russia rhetoric that has been coming from Germany in recent weeks. First of all, in view of the key circumstance that even before the Russian Armed Forces started this special military operation, Germany, alongside the United States, had been conducting vigorous military biological activities in Ukraine for many years and, possibly, continues to do so. We strongly believe that this is largely what motivates Germany to be more active, as compared to other EU countries, in its attempts to ascribe to our country criminal plans concerning the use of biological and chemical weapons in Ukraine and the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics, which have not yet been liberated.

The Russian MFA also disclosed some details about Germany’s military biological activities in Ukraine. Since 2013, under the auspices of the German Federal Foreign Office, the German Government has been implementing the German Biosecurity Programme (GBP) which includes partnership projects with government agencies and research organisations in focus countries, which Ukraine became part of in 2014, the year of Maidan. German specialists from the Institute of Microbiology of the German Armed Forces (Munich), Friedrich Loeffler Institute (Greifswald-Riems Island), Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine (Hamburg) and the Robert Koch Institute (Berlin), which specialise in research of deadly biological agents, are engaged in practical activities.

According to the German Federal Foreign Office, the third phase of the GBP will be implemented in 2020-2022. We can infer from the publicly available materials that the GBP’s stated technical goals include, among others, the gathering of epidemic intelligence in third countries, including with the use of big data technology, and developing the infrastructure of partner countries for handling dangerous biological agents.

The Institute of Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine in Kharkov has been the Institute of Microbiology of the German Armed Forces’ main Ukrainian counterparty since 2016, which we know from its own data. The two institutes cooperate under the Ukrainian-German project titled “Initiative on Biological Safety and Biological Defence in the Management of the Zoonotic Risks at the Outer Borders of the European Union.” The fact that its official goal is to “improve the biological defence and security situation” in Ukraine, “particularly in the east of the country” gives rise to the rhetorical question of which border the German military biologists consider an outer border for the purposes of their professional interests. Is it the Russian-Ukrainian border?

The Institute of Microbiology claims in its materials that the project is related to the “potential threat of biological terrorism” in Ukraine amid the unending hostilities in eastern regions of that country. It is crystal clear that this is a way to send a subtle message about ​​the DPR and LPR’s possible “involvement” in hatching plans for the use of internationally prohibited biological weapons. In so doing, the German military have been deliberately intimidating their Ukrainian counterparts for a long time and have, in fact, been psychologically pitting them against the Donbass republics. Ukrainian biological safety experts invariably participate in the medical biodefence conferences that are regularly held by the Institute of Microbiology of the German Armed Forces.

Obviously, to ensure protection against a potential biological attack, it is first necessary to study the potential biological agents with which it can be made. In other words, it is necessary to conduct research in the field of biological or chemical weapons. The Armed Forces of Germany (AFG) have enough knowledge and practical skills in this area, as was demonstrated by the scandalous incident with the mysterious poisoning of blogger Alexey Navalny. Specialists from the AFG Institute of Pharmacology and Toxicology – a military institution allied with the AFG Institute of Microbiology – supposedly very quickly detected in the body of the Russian citizen traces of some military toxin that NATO lists in the Novichok family. Such a high level of expertise –  if, of course, all statements were factually accurate –  suggests that the AFG is able to synthesise toxic substances independently, including the notorious Novichok and its markers.

Germany’s Friedrich Loeffler Institute that is in charge of the centre for the study of the most dangerous viruses and zoonotic infections on the Baltic Island of Riems, maintains active cooperation with the Ukrainian State Research Institute of Laboratory Diagnostics and Veterinary-Sanitary Expertise (Kiev), the State Scientific Control Institute of Bio-Technology and Strains of Microorganisms (Kiev) and also with the Institute of Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine (Kharkov) that cooperates in parallel with the AFG Institute of Microbiology. In Ukraine, the Friedrich Loeffler Institute has focused on Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever. Soviet scientists discovered it for the first time on the territory of Russian Crimea in 1944. There is documented evidence that the institute commissioned its Ukrainian partners to collect samples of ectoparasite recipients of bats that were transferred to the afore-mentioned Reims Island under the existing agreements.

The Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine has concentrated its activities in Ukraine on extremely dangerous fevers – Denge, Chikungunya, West Nile and Usutu, to name a few.

This information on Germany’s bio-military activities in Ukraine is far from exhaustive. It cannot be ruled out that, as the special military operation progresses, additional documents will be discovered by the Russian Armed Forces. According to confirmed reports, Germany closely coordinated its work on biological security with its American allies that established a network of at least 30 biological laboratories in Ukraine. In addition to their other activities, they were involved in dangerous research.

Russian side urger German officials to immediately stop spreading false allegations about our country’s intentions to use weapons banned by international law. We believe that such statements can only serve to push neo-Nazi battalions to commit horrible provocations, and moral responsibility for their tragic consequences will be shared by Berlin.

6. Situation on the battlefield

Ukrainian troops still continue to shell the residential areas in the DPR and the LPR.

During April 15th Ukrainian troops used 250 high-caliber shells of 152 mm and 122 mm against the DPR. 20 civilians have been injured, including three children. 

The LPR was shelled by 64 shells also by 152 and 122 mm munitions. 11 houses have been damaged.

At about 7::00AM April 15th Moscow time, a battalion of Ukraine's 19th Separate Missile Brigade struck the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station with two Tochka-U tactical missiles.

The destruction of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station dam by the strike was intended to result in the uncontrolled release of Dnepr water and cause flooding of many Kherson region settlements along with people in order to constrain the actions of the Russian Armed Forces.

Both missiles were shot down in mid-air by Russian air defence. Shrapnel from one of them fell on Novaya Kakhovka, Kherson region. Kindergarten and residential buildings were damaged.

Russian high-precision, long-range air-based weapons destroyed armoured vehicles production plant in Kiev and military equipment repair facility in Nikolaev.

During the day, 16 enemy locations were hit by high-precision air-based missiles. Among them: 11 areas of Ukrainian military equipment and weapons concentration in Povstanskoe in Odessa Region, Barvenkovo, Lisichansk, Sribnoe, Petrovskoe and Opytnoe; 2 missile and artillery weapons depots near Nikolaev; central storage base for radar reconnaissance and communications equipment in south-east of Poltava; 1 anti-aircraft weapons storage base south of Poltava; area of 95th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade units concentration in Gusarovka.

Russia strategic heavy bombers used conventional air-dropped high-caliber bombs called FAB-500 and super-powerful FAB-3000 against “Azovstal” still works where there are no peaceful civilians. Such strike managed to destroy underground structures of this huge steel mill. Russia has not used any chemical warfare agents against ultra-nazi that are still hiding at “Azovstal”. All chemical weapons have been destroyed under the existing CWC.

During the night, Russian operational-tactical aviation hit 67 areas of concentration of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment.

Russian AAD shot down 1 Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft in the air 15 km south of Izyum.

Missile troops and artillery hit 811 targets, including 43 Ukrainian command posts, 8 fuel column for military equipment as well as 760 areas of enemy manpower concentration.

Russian MoD said today that AFU have lost 23 367 men.

From the beginning of the “Operation Z” (February 24th) in total, 133 aircraft, 458 unmanned aerial vehicles, 246 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,246 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 252 multiple launch rocket systems, 981 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,146 special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.   

 


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 
 

Report # 46. Kiev plans a massive provocation during easter. It denied russian offer to AFU to surrender at “Azovstal” plant

 

April 18th, 2022

1. Russian troops proposed amnesty to Ukrainian troops besieged at “Azovstal” still plant from 6:00 AM to 13:00

During April 16, 2022, there was a sharp increase in the intensity of radio communications by nationalist militants and foreign mercenaries blocked in Mariupol at Azovstal steel plant. With most of the city under Russian control, these forces have dug in at the sprawling Azovstal metallurgical plant, a gargantuan Soviet-built factory complex spread over 11 square kilometers.

At the same time, the content of radio intercepts (367 were received in the past 24 hours alone) shows that the resisting fighters are in a desperate situation, practically without food and water. They insist that the official authorities in Kiev allow them to lay down their arms and surrender. However, the Ukrainian authorities categorically forbid this and threaten to carry out further executions under "wartime" conditions.

In accordance with persistent humanitarian initiatives by France, Germany and Turkey, and for purely humanitarian purposes, the Russian Armed Forces have repeatedly offered the militants to lay down their arms and withdraw from Mariupol to Kiev-controlled territory. To this end, since March 21, 2022, a humanitarian corridor has been opened daily from 10AM to 6:00PM; from April 5, 2022, such corridors are opened daily

Taking into account the catastrophic situation at Azovstal Iron and Steel Works and being guided by purely humane principles, the Russian Armed Forces suggest that the militants of the nationalist battalions and foreign mercenaries stop any hostilities and lay down.


Russian troops declared from 06:00 to 13:00 (Moscow time), Sunday, April 17th, 2022,  free and unhindered  withdrawal of all Ukrainian armed units and foreign mercenaries from Azov still plant, without any weapons or ammunition.


The Russian Federation guaranteed each of them preservation of their lives and the observance of all norms of the Geneva Convention for the treatment of POW, as has already happened to Ukrainian POW who previously surrendered in Mariupol to the DPR troops.

This emergency declaration was published immediately and reported to the United Nations, the OSCE, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other international organisations through all available information resources, including the media.

In addition, this emergency statement was broadcasted continuously throughout the night to Ukrainian formations at Azovstal on all radio channels at 30-minute intervals.

A Ukrainian military group encircled and completely blockaded in Mariupol on the territory of the Azovstal plant has been asked to voluntarily lay down arms and surrender in order to save their lives.

In total, according to the Ukrainian servicemen who surrendered, up to 400 foreign mercenaries are now encircled on the territory of Azovstal plant as part of the Ukrainian grouping.

Most of them are citizens of European countries as well as Canada. We previously reported that radio conversations between militants in Mariupol were conducted in six foreign languages. In the case of further resistance, they will all be eliminated.


However, the Kiev nationalist regime, including Deputy PM, according to the radio interception, forbade negotiations on surrender, ordering Azov Nazis to shoot on sight any person willing to lay down arms among Ukrainian soldiers and foreign mercenaries.


Since the start of the special military operation, the Kiev nationalist regime has brought 6,824 foreign mercenaries from 63 countries to Ukraine.

The largest group came from Poland - 1,717 people. About 1,500 mercenaries came from the USA, Canada and also Romania. From the UK and Georgia, each up to 300 people. 193 people arrived from Turkish-controlled areas of the Syrian Arab Republic.

The majority of the mercenaries are now deployed in Ukrainian groups in Kiev, Kharkov, Odessa, Nikolaev and Mariupol. Their deployment in the groups is handled by the "regional coordination headquarters" of the so-called "International Legion of Defence of Ukraine" in Belaya Tserkov city.

As a result of the hostilities, the number of mercenaries has steadily declined and currently stands at 4,877.

Russian Armed Forces have eliminated 1,035 foreign mercenaries in combat operations. Another 912 of them urgently left from the country.


All foreign mercenaries do not have the status of "combatants" under International Humanitarian Law. They came to Ukraine to make money by killing Slavs. So, the best that can happen to them is criminal liability and long terms of imprisonment


Opposition Platform - For Life Party politician Viktor Medvedchuk was detained by Ukrainian Security Forces last Tuesday. On Saturday, his wife appealed to the families of two suspected British mercenaries captured by Russian forces, calling on them to ask the British government for help in exchanging them for her husband.

Shaun Pinner and Aiden Aslin, the two British nationals who surrendered to Russian forces in Ukraine, have appealed to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, asking him for assistance in swapping them for Ukrainian opposition politician Viktor Medvedchuk who was detained without fair trial.

2. Other humanitarian corridors

The Russian side opened humanitarian corridors on a daily basis and ensured all requirements to observe the ceasefire in the Mariupol direction.

The Ukrainian side has never confirmed the security guarantees of the humanitarian corridor in question and continues to deliberately obstruct the implementation of these humanitarian initiatives.

Representatives of foreign embassies, relevant UN structures, the OSCE, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other international organisations were duly informed about planned humanitarian operations through all available information resources, including the media.

None of these organizations, with the exception of the International Committee of the Red Cross, has ever responded to our persistent calls for the opening of humanitarian corridors for the fighters to leave.

Thanks to the measures taken by the Russian Federation, without the participation of the Ukrainian side or international organizations, it was possible to evacuate from Mariupol more than 168,000 civilians (139,678 of them to the Russian Federation), including 237 representatives of foreign countries.

In addition, 1,464 Ukrainian servicemen laid down their arms and surrendered. They are not subjected to violence or psychological pressure. Everyone is given the opportunity to contact relatives. Wounded prisoners of war are provided with timely, qualified medical care.

3. The Kiev regime plans to shell churches on Orthodox Easter

Orthodox Christians will celebrate Easter on Sunday 24 April this year. Eastern Orthodoxy is the predominant Christian denomination in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and southeastern Europe, as well as some parts of the Middle East.

Russia's Defence Ministry has information that Ukrainian authorities are planning to carry out a "terrible" provocation on Orthodox Easter, and is appealing to Western Governments, the UNO and the OSCE to prevent it from taking place, Col. Gen. Mikhail Mizintsev, the head of the National Defence Control Centre, has announced. Russia has warned countries of the 'Civilised West' led by the United States ahead of time that the Russian Federation has an operational base of evidence about terrible crimes planned by the Kiev regime, Mizintsev said in a briefing in Moscow on April 18th.

Kiev, according to the officer, plans to shell churches using mortars in a number of regions of Ukraine, including Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, Odessa, Sumy and Kharkov on Easter night, and to subsequently blame Russia for the massacre of civilians. A number of Western countries are said to be involved in the planning of the provocation, which is to be carried out by over 70 mobile groups formed among ultra-nationalist battalions in mortar-equipped vans and off-road vehicles.

"Kiev plans to gather a large number of reporters from Western news agencies to document these alleged 'Russian atrocities' and to immediately and cynically spin these fakes," Mizintsev said.

4. Situation on the battlefield

A criminal missile strike was carried out by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on a peaceful civilian farm, exposing residents of the Tokmak settlement, Zaporozhye Region, to danger. The strike was carried out by the Tochka-U tactical missile system on private outbuildings designed to ensure the operation of a local farm and farmer's houses.

The buildings and structures of a private agricultural farm have been completely destroyed and cannot be restored. During the night, high-precision air-based missiles destroyed an ammunition factory near Brovary in Kiev region.

Operational-tactical and army aviation hit 68 military assets of Ukraine. Among them: 2 radar stations for target illumination and targeting of S-300 anti-aircraft missile system near Krivaya Luka and Krasnoarmeisk as well as 1 Osa AKM anti-aircraft missile system near Severodonetsk; 6 missile-artillery weapons and fuel depots, as well as 40  areas of concentration of Ukrainian military equipment and manpower in Kremennaya, Krasnyi Liman, Kolodesi, Torskoe, Yampolovka and Novoselovka.

Army aviation hit 4 concentrations of manpower and equipment as well as a convoy of vehicles on the march during the night. More than 50 Ukrainian servicemen, 7 IFVs and APCs and 14 armoured vehicles were destroyed.

Missile troops and artillery hit 814 targets, including 17 command posts, 111 artillery firing positions and 684 enemy strongholds and manpower concentration areas.

Russian AAD shot down 10 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Avdeevka, Bairak, Lozovaya, Malaya Kamyshevakha, Novoprokofievka, Pologi, Chernobayevka, Shirkoe and Yasinovataya.

During the offensive to liberate Mariupol city, a special operation to free hostages held by Ukrainian Nazis in Turkish mosque was carried out in Primorskiy district on April 16 at the request of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. As a result of the courageous actions of the Russian special operations group, the mosque was defeated and 29 militants, including foreign mercenaries, were killed. Hostages, citizens of a CIS country, released and taken to a safe location.


From the beginning of the “Operation Z” February 24th, 2022 total, 134 aircraft, 470 unmanned aerial vehicles, 249 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,290 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 254 multiple launch rocket systems, 992 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,166 special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.


 


FOOD FOR THOUGHT

A widely-circulated wrong news in the world is that military operations in Ukraine stated February 24th, 2022.

It de facto began April 14th, 2014 when Kiev started the policy of genocide vs Donbass.

AFU and nationalist battalions killed 14.000 and injured 34.000 civilians, and destroyed living quarters and social infrastructure there.


 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 47. Russia once again opened free exits from Azovstal plant

 

April 20th, 2022

1. Russia opened safe exits from Azovstal plant for the second time

Taking into account the catastrophic situation, created by Kiev at Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, the Russian Armed Forces have opened a humanitarian corridor for the withdrawal of Ukrainian servicemen and militants of nationalist formations who voluntarily laid down their arms from 14:00 till 16:00 Moscow time on April 19, 2022.

For this purpose, a ceasefire has been announced as well, any hostilities have been stopped, units of the Russian Armed Forces and the Donetsk People's Republic troops have been withdrawn to a safe distance along the entire perimeter of Azovstal.

In the immediate vicinity of the plant, three humanitarian convoys are deployed in three directions: the first one is from the western direction on Shevchenko street; the second is from the eastern direction on Pobeda avenue; the third is from the north direction on Taganrogskaya street. On all routes of movement of humanitarian convoys, the Russian Armed Forces, together with the formations of the Donetsk People's Republic, strictly observed the ceasefire.

Each humanitarian convoy consisted of 30 buses and cars for transporting people, 10 ambulances with medical and nursing teams. In addition, meeting points and temporary accommodation have been deployed in all three directions, food and primary medical care facilities have been organized.

It has been also stressed that if there are any civilians at the plant, as Zelensky has claimed, they could use these humanitarian routes in order to move into safe areas. The leadership of the DPR said that there were no civilians at the Azovstal plant, and the story of “the trapped civilians, including children inside it”, is a lie invented to save war criminals and terrorists from trial.

Once again, Russia called on the official authorities of Kiev to show prudence, to give appropriate instructions to the militants about ending senseless resistance and leaving the hotbed of resistance. But realizing that the commanders of Ukrainian units may not receive such orders and commands from the Kiev authorities, Russia urge them to make such a decision on their own and lay down their arms.

The leadership of the Russian Federation guaranteed the preservation of life, complete safety and the provision of qualified medical care to all those who have laid down their weapons. Russia has repeatedly, including through the surrender of Ukrainian marines who have laid down their arms and surrendered in practice, confirmed its humane attitude towards prisoners of war and its full compliance with the norms of international humanitarian law. And this time the Russian side guarantees compliance with the Geneva Conventions on the treatment of prisoners of war.

This statement was delivered to the Ukrainian side through Irina Vereshchuk, the Deputy Prime Minister of the Government of Ukraine.


Russian MoD announced at 22:00 Moscow time April 19th that nobody has used these three corridors from Azolvstal to surrender. The DPR later confirmed that only five military men from the plant have surrendered.


2. One more provocation is planned by Kiev

According to the available reliable information, the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) is preparing another provocation to accuse the servicemen of the Russian Federation of so-called war crimes with the mass destruction of civilians in the Odessa Region.

To this end, in the near future it is planned to dress one of the SSU units in the uniform of Russian servicemen and make a demonstrative shooting of local residents. Photo and video footage of this action with alleged "Russian atrocities" will be published by Ukrainian and Western news agencies to immediately promote fakes.

The upcoming provocation of the Ukrainian authorities demonstrates their inhumane attitude to the fate of peaceful citizens of Ukraine and testifies to the complete disregard for all norms of morality and international humanitarian law.

Russia warns the countries of the "civilized West" led by the USA in advance that the Russian Federation has full-fledged operational evidence base about the upcoming additional terrible crimes of the Kiev regime.

3. Moscow responds to nuclear weapons claim

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has rejected claims that Moscow could resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Lavrov was questioned on the issue during an extensive interview with India Today in Moscow on April 19th. When the journalist mentioned that “President Zelensky said that Russia plans to use tactical weapons,” the foreign minister didn’t even let her finish the question. “He says many things,” Lavrov said. He reminded that Russia had never mentioned the use of nuclear weapons as an option during its military operation in the neighboring country, and the Ukrainian leader was the only one to speak about this.

“I cannot comment [on] something, which a not very adequate person pronounces,” the Russian FM added.

Lavrov reiterated the notion that “there could be no winners in a nuclear war,” and assured that Russia would only rely on conventional weapons in Ukraine.

Zelensky claimed that Moscow could use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine during his interview with CNN on April 15th.

4. New arms deliveries to Kiev

The USA recently announced a $800 million package of weapons for Kiev, including 200 aging armored personnel carriers and 18 towed howitzers. The Pentagon said US allies have helped bolster Ukraine’s fleet of fighter aircraft by donating spare parts needed to make more of the jets operable as fighting with Russia heats up in the country’s Donbass region. While Washington hasn’t been able to provide some of the Soviet-type weaponry that Kiev has requested, countries that have compatible gear in their inventories have stepped up to help, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters on April 19th. In recent days, such aid has included fighter jet parts.

Kirby didn’t identify the countries involved in the parts shipments; nor did he disclose the number or type of jets that have been repaired and put back into service. The USA and other NATO members have accelerated weapons shipments to Ukraine in recent weeks,

Germany explains way to send more of its arms to Ukraine. The Bundeswehr has no weapons to spare, but Berlin will pay defense industry to arm Ukraine, says Chancellor Scholz. The government in Berlin will pay the German military-industrial complex to produce weapons for Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on April 19th after talks with G7 members. He added that the Bundeswehr has no weapons left to spare for Kiev from its own stockpiles, and will need a large-scale rearmament program.  “We initially supplied Ukraine with weapons from our stocks. Now we must recognize that our capabilities have reached their limits,” Scholz said. “Therefore, we are creating a special fund so that our army, after many years of savings, will finally be well-armed, and we are investing on a large scale in the Bundeswehr’s capabilities.”

From February 24th, 21 NATO countries and four “neutral” states pledged to send arms and ammunition to Ukraine wroth of $ 6 bln (see the chart below in Russian only).


Russia considers them as accomplices to the third aggression of Ukraine vs Donbass. Russians also say that Western deadly weapons supplied to neo-nazi regime in Kiev kill Russians and Ukrainians. It will be remembered for quite a long time.


5. Situation on the battlefield

Armed Forces of Ukraine continued shelling of residential areas in the DPR and LPR.

AFU shelled the DPR 29 times by firing 217 artillery shells and mines. Seven civilians have been injured, 28 houses and two social structures have been damaged. Two areas in the LPR have been shelled by MRLS. Hjuman losses have not been announced.

Another Russian village was attacked from Ukraine early on April 19th, the governor of the southwestern Belgorod Region Vyacheslav Gladkov has claimed. The settlement of Golovchino, located some 10km from the Ukrainian border was targeted, the governor announced on his Telegram channel. In his words, “Three people were hurt” in the attack and rushed to hospital, he wrote. One of them has already been discharged after receiving treatment, while two women remain in medical care.

The shelling affected some 30 residential buildings in the village, Gladkov added. Windows were smashed, with damage also being delivered to roofs, fences and parked cars.

The U.S. and its allies have sent billions of dollars-worth of weaponry to Ukraine over the years, and committed billions more after Russia and its Donbass allies began a military operation in the country in February. Last week, U.S. officials said Moscow had "warned" the White House to stop sending advanced arms or face "unpredictable consequences"

A Russian precision airstrike has wiped out a logistics facility outside Lvov in western Ukraine containing large amounts of U.S. and European weaponry sent to Kiev in violation of the 1993 OSCE decision, Russian MoD announced in a briefing April 18th (see annex in Russian only). It has been said that the same day, air-launched missiles fired by the Russian Aerospace Forces delivered a precision strike against the 124th Joint Logistics Center of the Logistics Forces Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Lvov. The logistics center and a large batch of foreign weapons delivered to Ukraine over the past six days from the United States and European countries was destroyed.

During the night, high-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces suppressed 13 strongholds of the Ukrainian troops, as well as areas of enemy's manpower and military equipment concentration in Slavyansk, Barvenkovo and Popasnaya.

Russian Aerospace Forces hit 60 military assets of Ukraine. 2 depots of Tochka-U missile warheads were destroyed near Chervonaya Polyana and Balakleya. 3 command posts of Ukrainian troops as well as 53 areas of enemy's manpower and military equipment concentration were also hit.

Missile troops and artillery hit 1,260 military targets.

Destroyed were: 25 command posts of Ukrainian units near Nikolaev, Kirovsk; 2 missile and artillery weapons depots near Voskresensk and Nikolaev; 2 Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile launchers near Gulyai Pole and Nikolaevka II, as well as 1,214 enemy manpower concentrations.

Russian AAD shot down 1 Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet near Malinovka, Donetsk Region. 2 Ukrainian Tochka-U tactical missiles were intercepted near Petropol'e and Malaya Kamyshevakha. 4 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed near Mar'inka, Kamenka, Semenovka and Sinichino.


In total, from February 24th, 2022, 140 aircraft, 487 unmanned aerial vehicles, 252 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,353 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 256 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,014 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,208 special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation


 

Annex

DELIVERIES

 of deadly weapons by unfriendly nations to Kiev regime from February 24th, 2022

 

Страна

Дата

Поставки

  1.  

Австралия

19.03

1066 пластин для бронежилетов, 473 защитных шлема,
571 камуфляжный бронежилет

  1.  

20.03

67,6 млн $ - общий объем финансирования закупки вооружений

  1.  

8.03

20 бронемашин «Bushmaster»

  1.  

На сумму 67,6 млн $

  1.  

Бельгия

10.04

200 ПТРК, 2 тыс. пулеметов, 3 тыс. автоматов

  1.  

Великобритания

25.03

6 тыс. единиц оружия, включая противотанковые ракеты
в дополнение к ранее отправленным 4 тыс. ПТРК «Javelin»
и «NLAW»

  1.  

26.03

30 млн £ – для поддержки ВВС и для выплаты заработной платы ВСУ

  1.  

8.04

100 млн £ – высокотехнологичные противотанковые системы
и комплексы ПВО

  1.  

10.04

120 бронемашин («Mastiff», «Husky», «Spartan»), противокорабельные ракеты «Harpoon», ПЗРК «Starstreak»,
800 ПТУР, неназванные высокоточные боеприпасы на 130 млн $, 500 млн $ финансовой помощи от Всемирного банка, 394 млн £ безвозмездной финансовой помощи

  1.  

На сумму 1,5 млрд $

  1.  

Германия

25.03

1,5 тыс. ПЗРК «Стрела», 100 пулеметов MG3, 8 млн патронов для пистолетов, 350 тыс. продуктовых пайков, 50 медицинских транспортных средств

  1.  

30.03

300 млн € – 2650 противотанковых гранатометов и минометов, бронированные машины и автобусы, 18 разведывательных БпЛА, 3000 приборов ночного видения, тысячи бронежилетов

  1.  

10.04

Krauss-Maffei Wegmann: 100 самоходных гаубиц Panzerhaubitze 2000 (1,7 млрд €), бронетранспортеры GTK Boxer 8x8 (1,2 млрд €)

  1.  

11.04

Rheinmetall: 50 танков Leopard 1, 60 SPz Marder

  1.  

На сумму 323,6 млн $

  1.  

Дания

27.02

2,7 тыс единиц противотанкового оружия, 2 тыс. бронежилетов TYR, 700 санитарных пакетов IFAK

  1.  

ЕС

18.03

300 млн € экстренной макроэкономической помощи на закупку
и доставку вооружения

  1.  

23.03

1 млрд € в два транша по 500 млн €

  1.  

8.04

500 млн € третий транш

  1.  

На сумму 1,9 млрд $

  1.  

Испания

2.03

1370 гранатометов, 700 тыс. патронов, легкие пулеметы

  1.  

Италия

12.03

пулеметы, противотанковое оружие, боеприпасы, очки ночного видения

  1.  

Канада

3.03

4,5 тыс. противотанковых гранатометов M-72, около 7,5 тыс ручных гранат, 750 тыс. $ для закупки высокоточных спутниковых снимков

  1.  

Кипр

10.04

Ми-35П, танки Т-80У, ЗРК «Тор» и «Бук»

  1.  

Литва

27.02

стрелковое оружие, шлемы и бронежилеты

  1.  

Нидерланды

26.02

400 реактивных гранатометов, 500 ракет «Стингер», 1 тыс противотанковых средств

  1.  

27.02

50 противотанковых гранатометов «Panzerfaust 3» + 400 гранат
к ним, 200 ПЗРК «Stinger», 100 снайперских винтовок + 30 тыс боеприпасов к ним, 2 водолазных судна

  1.  

Норвегия

30.03

2 тыс. противотанковых гранатометов M-72, около 2 тыс. единиц противотанкового оружия

  1.  

12.04

вероятны поставки противокорабельных ударных ракет NSM
и зенитно-ракетных комплексов «NASAMS»

  1.  

Польша

27.02

100 ед. 60-мм минометов и 1,5 тыс. штук боеприпасов к ним,
8 комплектов БпЛА, 152-мм кумулятивные боеприпасы
и боеприпасы к автоматическим орудиям, шлемы

  1.  

12.04

100 танков Т-72М/М1, БМП BWP-1

  1.  

Словакия

8.04

ЗРК С-300

  1.  

10.04

16 артиллерийских установок DANA «Zuzana»

  1.  

10.04

истребители МиГ-29

  1.  

США

26.02

350 млн $ – противотанковые и зенитные системы (200 ПЗРК «Stinger»), стрелковое оружие и боеприпасы различного калибра, бронежилеты и сопутствующее оборудование

  1.  

13.03

200 млн $ – противотанковые и зенитные системы, стрелковое оружие

  1.  

16.03

800 млн $ дополнительной военной помощи

  1.  

24.02

– 7.04

На выделенные средства поставлено: более 1400 ПЗРК «Stinger», более 5 тыс. ПТРК «Javelin», более 7 тыс. ПТУР, более 100 БпЛА «Switchblade», более 7 тыс. единиц стрелкового оружия, более 50 млн патронов, 45 тыс. бронежилетов и шлемов, 4 комплекса контрбатарейной борьбы, «HMMWV», приборы ночного видения,

  1.  

13.04

800 млн $ – танки Т-72, 11 вертолетов Ми-17, 200 БТР M113,
300 БпЛА «Switchblade», 18 155-мм гаубиц и 40 тыс. снарядов
к ним, 500 ракет к ПТРК «Javelin», тысячи единиц прочих противотанковых систем, 10 РЛС контрбатарейной борьбы,
2 РЛС воздушного наблюдения, 100 машин повышенной проходимости, беспилотные суда для зашиты побережья, оборудование для защиты от ядерных, химических
и биологических угроз, 30 тыс. бронежилетов и шлемов, более
2 тыс. единиц оптических устройств и лазерных дальномеров, взрывчатка C-4, мины M18A1 «Claimore»

  1.  

На сумму 2,3 млрд $ только при президентстве Байдена

  1.  

Чехия

25.02

4 тыс. артиллерийских снарядов 152-мм (free)

  1.  

27.02

На сумму 8,6 млн $ – стрелковое оружие и боеприпасы к нему.

  1.  

5.04

40 танков Т-72 и 50 БМП-1

  1.  

14.04

20 реактивных систем залпового огня RM-70 «Vampire»

  1.  

Швеция

27.02

43 млн $ – 135 тыс. полевых пайков, 5 тыс. касок, 5 тыс. бронежилетов, 5-6 тыс. одноразовых противотанковых гранатометов АТ-4

  1.  

28.02

52,63 млн $ – в Фонд ЦБ Украины для поддержки ВСУ

  1.  

23.03

21,7 млн $ – 5000 единиц противотанкового оружия
и оборудование для разминирования

  1.  

На сумму 117,3 млн $

На сумму как минимум 6 млрд $

Танки – от 140, артиллерийские орудия – от 34, бронемашины – от 240,
ПТРК – 28200, ПЗРК – 3800, стрелковое оружие – от 15000, БпЛА – 126, гранатометы
и минометы – от 16070, комплексы ПВО, боеприпасы и артиллерийские снаряды, оборудование для разминирования, средства индивидуальной бронезащиты, БМП, реактивные системы залпового огня, средства контрбатарейной борьбы

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 48. Russian president ordered to stop storming “Azovstal”. Russia tested newest ICBM

April 21st, 2022

1. Putin called off assault on Mariupol steel plant

April 21st, 2022 President Vladimir Putin gave the order to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to stop storming “Azovstal” still plant in order to save lives, gave the Ukrainian militants another chance to surrender, and instructed once again to open humanitarian corridors from the plant the same day from 14:00 till 16:00 Moscow time.

 During last two days (April 19 and 20th) nobody has surrendered and left heavily destroyed still plant. The announced humanitarian operation has been cynically disrupted by the Kiev authorities who prevented its troops to save their lives Zelensky has ignored Russian initiatives, showed an inhuman attitude towards Ukrainian servicemen and failed to give them the only correct order – to stop pointless resistance and lay down arms.

 And the commanders of the nationalist battalions did not seize another opportunity to save themselves and the lives of their subordinates.

The same day, Shoigu told Putin that Russian forces and the Donbass republics' militias have fully seized the city of Mariupol, except for the “Azovstal” plant.

According to the Russian MoD, “Azovstil” plant still harbors some 2,000 Ukrainian militants, including the neo-Nazi 'Azov' regiment, and about 400 foreign “soldiers of fortune”. Around 1,500 Ukrainian Marines have surrendered earlier. Nearly 4,000 nationalists preferred to be killed.

2. Other safe routes

The Russian Armed Forces also have been opening humanitarian corridors in the Kharkov and Mariupol directions daily since 10:00AM (Moscow time). The Russian side is ready to deploy humanitarian corridors in any other directions as soon as possible and to ensure the safe evacuation of civilians.

The Russian Armed Forces together with the formations of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics strictly observe the ceasefire on all routes.

Ukrainian armed formations continue to use medical infrastructure to equip strongholds and deploy heavy weaponry:

in Slavyansk in the Donetsk People's Republic, a unit of the Ukrainian armed forces is stationed in the building of a railway hospital, with armoured vehicles and artillery firing positions in the surrounding area;

in Lisichansk in the Lugansk People's Republic, nationalists have set up firing positions in the building of the regional children's hospital.

These and other similar facts, despite our repeated statements, have to date been ignored by the World Health Organization.

Once again, we call on all international organisations, especially the World Health Organization, to influence official Kiev and take effective measures to prevent the use of medical infrastructure for military purposes.

In addition, against the backdrop of the dire humanitarian situation in Nikolaev, social payments to the population have been stopped, humanitarian aid is being stolen by the local administration and overpriced on the shelves of shops and pharmacies. Public utilities do not work, the central water supply is disconnected, forcing people to draw water from all available, including untested sources (rivers, ponds, abandoned wells). Nikolaev will be in the zone of an epidemiological catastrophe if the local authorities do not take immediate measures to restore the city's life support systems. At the same time, amid a deteriorating humanitarian situation, territorial defence fighters have carried out mass uncontrolled distribution of weapons and drugs to the local population and carried out punitive raids in order to detect any signs of pro-Russian views among local residents. All suspects are apprehended, taken to an unknown destination. In the course of these security raids, the nationalists forcibly seize valuable property and foodstuffs, ostensibly for the needs of territorial defence.

Such actions by Kiev once again demonstrate an inhuman attitude towards the fate of its own citizens and show a complete disregard for all norms of morality and international humanitarian law.

Meanwhile, Western countries are not only aware of Kiev's gross violations of the Geneva Conventions, but are also trying to help the Ukrainian authorities cover up their cynical crimes by massively spreading fake news in foreign media.

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles imposed by the Ukrainian side, over the past day, without the participation of Kiev, 14,982 people were evacuated from dangerous areas, 2,940 of them children, and in total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 894,030 people have already been evacuated, of which 163,761 are children. The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 118,810 personal vehicles including 1,843 per day.

More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centres continue to operate in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and are fully equipped with recreational facilities and hot meals. The refugees are treated individually and provided with qualified medical and psychological assistance.

Over the past 24 hours, the hotline of the Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, federal executive authorities, subjects of the Russian Federation and various public organizations received 357 appeals from foreign and Ukrainian citizens, with a total of 2,751,150 from 2,128 locations in Ukraine in the database.

Ukrainian nationalists continue to hold 6,126 foreign nationals from 12 countries hostage as human shields.

3. Humanitarian aid distribution

Federal executive authorities, together with the subjects of the Russian Federation, various public organizations, patriotic movements, continue to accumulate humanitarian aid.

More than 22,000 tonnes of basic necessities and food kits, including baby food and life-saving medicines, have been prepared at collection points.

Since March 2, 13,419.8 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 865 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 4 actions in Zaparozhye and Kherson regions, as well as in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, during which 262 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

On April 20, 10 humanitarian actions have been planned and are currently being carried out in Kharkov, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, during which 436.1 tons of basic necessities, medicine and food will be distributed.

4.  Situation at the Black Sea

76 foreign vessels from 18 countries remain blocked in Ukrainian ports. The threat of shelling and high mine danger created by official Kiev in its internal waters and territorial sea prevents vessels from safely leaving the ports and reaching the open sea.

In confirmation of this, the Russian Federation is opening daily from 08:00 to 19:00 (Moscow time) a humanitarian corridor, which is a safe lane south-west of Ukraine's territorial sea, 80 nautical miles long and 3 nautical miles wide.

Detailed information in English and Russian on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridor is broadcast daily every 15 minutes on VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels in English and Russian.

At the same time, the Kiev authorities continue to avoid engaging with representatives of states and ship-owning companies to resolve the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area. At the International Maritime Organisation, Ukraine's representatives refuse to discuss issues of ship departures security, demonstratively avoiding dialogue.

The Russian Federation is taking a full range of exhaustive measures to ensure civilian navigation in the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov and the Mediterranean.

The danger to navigation from Ukrainian mines drifting off their anchors along the coasts of Black Sea states remains.

Once again, we call on the International Maritime Organization and the management of ship-owning companies to influence official Kiev to take measures aimed at unblocking and securing the departure of foreign vessels from Ukrainian ports.

5.Developments on the battlefields

According to reconnaissance reports, AFU units concentrated ammunition, military equipment and weapons at a camouflaged airfield to supply a group of troops.  This was confirmed by technical reconnaissance equipment, after which a multiple-launch rocket launcher unit attacked the depots.

The Russian Armed Forces continue to use high-precision missile weapons against military infrastructure and equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the course of the special military operation.

Units of the Russian Armed Forces and the Lugansk people's militia have taken full control of Kremennaya, which had been turned into a stronghold by Ukrainian nationalists.

As a result of the rapid and coordinated actions of the assault troops, severe destruction of urban infrastructure and residential buildings was avoided.

Operational-tactical and army aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces struck 20 areas of concentration of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment near Shnurki, Novonikolaevka and Aleksandrovka during the night.

Missile troops and artillery hit 1,001 military assets of Ukraine.

Among them: 58 command posts, 162 Ukrainian artillery firing positions, and 771 strong points and aareas of concentration of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment in Mayaki, Dibrovnoe, Mazanovka, Dolina Krasnopol'e, Velikaya Kamyshevakha, Chervonoe, Vernopol'e, Pashkovka, Dmitrovka, Novaya Dmitrovka, Vysokiy, Chernoglazovka, Slatino, Zolochev, Partizanskoe, Aleksandrovka and Shevchenkovo of Nikolaev region.

Russian air defence means destroyed 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Berezovaya, Brazhkovka, Verkhnetoretskoe, Debrovka, Izyum, Kalinovka, Kiselevka, Lozovaya, Novobogdanovka, Novoalexandrovka and Chuvakovka.

Also, 1 Tochka-U tactical missile was shot down near Donetskoe.


In total, 140 aircraft and 106 helicopters, 511 unmanned aerial vehicles, 254 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,410 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 262 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,046 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,259 special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.


6. Russia will significantly strengthen its NW arsenal with new ICBM “Sarmat”

On April 20, Russia successfully tested a strategic missile system (RKSN) with a new liquid-fueled, heavy class intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) named “Sarmat”. During the tests, the design and flight characteristics nave been confirmed at all stages of the flight of this rocket.

The named missile system will replace the Soviet-made “Voevoda” ICBM with an intercontinental range as well. In many basic characteristics, the new missile surpasses its predecessor, and in the foreseeable future will have no analogues in the world.

This is the world's most powerful ground-based combat ICBM. The unprecedented mass of its payload and the versatility of the combat platform make it possible to equip the “Sarmat” missile with all types of modern and promising combat units, including the “Avangard” hypersonic cruise combat glider.

The missile control system provides high accuracy of its warheads guidance.

The increased energy and mass characteristics of the “Sarmat” missile allow delivering warheads to the targets along a ballistic trajectory for a long range.

This makes it possible to hit any target both from the North and from the South.

The booster section time of operation (much shorter than that of the “Voevoda” ICBM) significantly complicates its detection in flight and interception by missile defense means.

The means for penetration of any missile defense systems used by as part of the “Sarmat” missile system ensures that the combat units overcome any layers of the "anti-missile shield" of any unfriendly nation. The combat units of the “Sarmat” missile in flight will be accompanied by a large number of dummy warheads indistinguishable from them. The task of intercepting such a large number of warheads is practically impossible for both existing and prospective missile defense systems of other states.

The improved characteristics of the missile in terms of range, throw weight, and the means of penetrating anti-missile systems used in combination with the use of new advanced and perspective technologies and materials allow Russia to speak about the uniqueness of the “Sarmat” complex in numerous parameters.

The weight and size characteristics of the “Sarmat” missile ensure its placement in the existing silos of the “Voevoda” complex with minimal modifications to the infrastructure of the deployment areas, which significantly reduces the cost and deployment time of the new ICBM.

In the Uzhur Regiment of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces (Krasnoyarsk Region), work is underway to prepare the first missile regiment for rearmament with a new missile system.

It is necessary to pay special attention to the military and political leadership of the NATO member countries, if they ask for any clarification, that the “Sarmat” missile system is not subject to discussion at any future negotiations or consultations with the United States and other countries of the transatlantic Alliance on any future reductions of strategic offensive nuclear weapons by two key reasons.

Firstly, “Sarmat” is not mentioned by its name in the START-3 Treaty, which was extended until 2026.

Secondly, under the terms of the said agreement, it can be considered as an "existing type" only after the entire cycle of its tests is completed (they should be completed this year), if its mass production will begin and if it will be commissioned by the Russian Strategic Missile Forces at the end of 2022.

For these reasons, any demonstrations or displays of such a missile to representatives of the states who are hostile to Russia seem to be inappropriate. For the same reasons, “Sarmat” cannot be included in advance in the formulas of potential future reductions of the SOA between Russia and the United States.

The other arguments are as follows. The Americans do not have such a missile. And it is unknown when and with what quality they will create something like this. To use the terminology of card games: Russian trump ace should not be changed for the American non-trump six.

Russia have not yet received any guarantees of our national security from Washington and NATO, about which it posed a legitimate question to them at the end of last year.

At the same time, it is impossible not to take into account the U.S.-NATO forward-based assets in the form of the "Chicago Triad", created at the transatlantic Alliance summit in Chicago in 2012, which included nuclear missile weapons, combined anti-missile systems and general-purpose forces equipped with heavy weapons.

The USA is still committed to NFU or NFS posture. Russia does not have such policy.

It is also important to ensure that relations between Russia and the United States are first brought to a normal state. And in the future, they should be built on the basis of mutually acceptable principles of equality and equal, indivisible security, legally binding security guarantees, as well as with real consideration of all factors that determine strategic stability in the world.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 49. Ten principles of resolving humanitarian issues

 

April 23, 2022

1. Humanitarian situation

Since 21st March 2022, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have been announcing daily humanitarian pauses during which a full ceasefire is imposed to evacuate all civilians from the city of Mariupol, without exception, in any direction they choose. The Russian side has done, and continues to do so, purely on humanitarian principles towards the civilian population. At the same time, the introduction of ceasefire led to a significant slowdown in the pace of the advance of troops and the postponement of the tasks of destroying the formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and neo-Nazis in the city.

But, thanks to the measures taken, it was possible to evacuate 143,631 civilians and 341 foreign citizens from Mariupol, as well as to carry out the safe withdrawal of 1,844 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who surrendered. All of them have their lives saved, safety is ensured and qualified medical care is provided. All this was done without any participation of the Kiev authorities, but towards the citizens of their own country.

These statistics indicate that the accusations of the authorities of Ukraine and the countries of the so-called civilized West against the Armed Forces of Russia and the formations of the Donetsk People's Republic are groundless in creating some obstacles to the exit of civilians and not providing conditions for the surrender of Ukrainian servicemen. These blatant lies and deception spread by the collective West in order to discredit the actions of the Russian Armed Forces during a special military operation have become almost around the clock.

It is suffice to look at the materials posted on the website of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation in the section of the Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, where it scrupulously keeps the entire chronology of events every day. Anyone, including those who make loud statements, both official and unofficial persons of Ukraine and the Western "civilized world", will find all the exhaustive answers there.

The Russian Federation consistently informs the entire world community about its actions. For our country, this fundamental issue in the conditions of round-the-clock baseless information hysteria filled with millions of fake messages has been and remains one of the main aspects of all activities in the Ukrainian direction.

That is why, in accordance with this principled position, as well as guided by purely humane principles and in response to the ongoing allegations of the Ukrainian side about the alleged presence of civilians on Azovstal, Russia once again declared that it is ready to introduce a ceasefire at any moment and declare a humanitarian pause for the evacuation of civilians (if such they are actually located in the underground structures of the combine), as well as Ukrainian Armed Forces servicemen who have expressed a desire to lay down their arms, militants of nationalist battalions, including wounded Ukrainian servicemen, whose presence is also announced daily by Kiev officials.

At the same time, Russia emphasized that if civilians are still at the metallurgical plant, it categorically demands that the Kiev authorities immediately issue a corresponding order to the commanders of the nationalist formations to release them.

At the same time, Russia declared that the forcible detention of civilians as "human shields" in accordance with the norms of international law is terrorism, and the officials of the Kiev authorities and the direct perpetrators of this inhuman action at Azovstal are war criminals and terrorists.

At the same time, the actual beginning of the humanitarian pause is the raising of white flags by Ukrainian armed formations around the perimeter or in certain directions of Azovstal.

In case of detection of such signs in any of the directions of the Azovstal plant, the Armed Forces of Russia and the formations of the Donetsk People's Republic immediately cease any hostilities and provide safe access to the gathering places of humanitarian convoys.

2. Ten Russian approaches to humanitarian issues

Russia announces 10 principled approaches of the leadership of the Russian Federation on this humanitarian issues:

1. Delivery of the civilian population is carried out to any point, both to the territory controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and to the Russian Federation (this decision is made by everyone independently).

2. The surrendered servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, militants of nationalist battalions and foreign mercenaries are guaranteed the preservation of life.

3. The specified categories of citizens are guaranteed complete security.

4. All, without exception, will be provided with qualified medical care, including primary care at collection points.

5. This humanitarian initiative on the part of the Russian Federation operates around the clock.

6. In order to implement the measures of this humanitarian action, the Russian side in the city of Mariupol keeps a sufficient number of buses, motor vehicles for transporting people, as well as ambulances with medical and nursing teams in constant readiness.

7.This urgent statement is subject to immediate communication to the United Nations, the OSCE, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other international organizations, diplomatic missions of all foreign states through all available communication channels and information resources.

8. The specified statement will be continuously brought to the Ukrainian formations at Azovstal plant on all radio channels with an interval of every 30 minutes.

9.Through operational communication channels, this statement is immediately communicated to the Ukrainian side through Irina Vereshchuk, the Deputy Prime Minister of the Government of Ukraine.

10. The specified urgent statement is subject to immediate publication on all information resources.

Meanwhile, in the Kharkov region, in settlements liberated from nationalist battalions, Russian servicemen help the population to restore peaceful life and, with the support of local residents, participate in the organization of daily life.

Humanitarian cargo is also delivered to the population, primary medical care is provided. People with chronic diseases and in need of inpatient medical care are taken to specialized medical institutions.

During the advance of Russian troops, military personnel in the liberated territories deploy road commandant garrisons, which ensure the safety and escort of convoys of armored and automotive vehicles, including those carrying humanitarian supplies. The safety of the movement of convoys is also carried out by the crews of attack helicopters of the army aviation.

3. Russia revealed the tempo of peace talks with Ukraine

Russia has not received any answer from Ukraine to its most recent peace proposals, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters on April 22nd, adding that Kiev is conveying the impression that it isn't interested in a diplomatic solution to the ongoing military conflict. 

His words came two days after Moscow said it had forwarded a “draft document” on a settlement, with concrete wording. Kiev confirmed it had received the document and was reviewing it. However, at the time, President Zelensky stated he had not seen anything containing proposals from Moscow.

Lavrov questioned Kiev’s position on the talks during a press-conference. It was “very strange for him to hear statements from Kiev, including those by aides to Ukrainian president, that “suggest they do not need these talks at all,” Lavrov added. 

Earlier this week, Ukrainian presidential adviser Alexey Arestovich warned that peace talks with Moscow could be halted if Russian troops seized Mariupol, a strategically valuable port city on the Black Sea. When asked to comment on these statements, Lavrov explained that Moscow sees any “ultimatums” as unacceptable. The city has been totally captured, except Azovstal plant.

4. Situation on the battlefields

During the day, 13 military assets of Ukraine were hit by high-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces. Among them: 2 control points, 11 strong points and areas of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment concentration.

As a result of the strikes, up to 2 companies of nationalists were eliminated, as well as 27 Ukrainian armored vehicles and cars. In addition, 1 depot of missiles for Osa-AKM anti-aircraft missile systems was destroyed in Chervonnoe.

Operational-tactical and army aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit 26 military assets of Ukraine. Among them: 2 command posts and 21 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration. 3 missile and artillery weapons depots were destroyed near Toretskiy, Komar and Bogatyr.

During the day, missile troops hit: 1 command post, 5 areas areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 1 artillery battery. 1 Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter, 1 Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile system, as well as 1 electronic warfare station were destroyed at the airfield near Barvenkovo.

Russian air defence means destroyed 3 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Bolshie Prokhody, Shurovka in Kharkov Region and Spartak in the Donetsk People's Republic.

In total, 140 aircraft and 107 helicopters, 523 unmanned aerial vehicles, 258 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,458 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 272 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,069 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,305 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.

5. The losses on board cruiser Moskva

As a result of a fire on April 13, the Black Sea Fleet flagship Moskva was seriously damaged due to a detonation of ammunition, Russia's Ministry of Defense outlined on April 22nd. One serviceman died and another 27 crew members went missing, and attempts by the crew to put out the fire were not successful, the statement added.

The Russian MoD earlier announced that the Moskva sank while being towed to port amid poor sea conditions. It said that the warship’s hull had been damaged by an ammunition explosion that was caused by an onboard fire.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 51. Humanitarian corridor in Mariupol opened again

April 25th, 2022

1. A humanitarian corridor in Mariupol was open again

The leadership of the Russian Federation once again confirms the previously opened and permanently operating for the 36th day (from March 21, 2022) round-the-clock humanitarian corridor from the Azovstal metallurgical plant for the evacuation of civilians (workers, women and children), whose alleged presence in the underground structures of the plant is publicly announced by the Kiev authorities.

At the same time, the Armed Forces of Russia and the formations of the Donetsk People's Republic from 14:00 (Moscow time) on April 25, 2022 unilaterally cease any hostilities, units are withdrawn to a safe distance and ensure the withdrawal of the specified category of citizens in any directions they choose.

The actual readiness of the Ukrainian side to launch a humanitarian operation is indicated by raising white flags around the perimeter or in certain directions of Azovstal.

The Russian Federation publicly and officially declares that there are no obstacles to the exit of civilians from Azovstal, except for the principled decision of the Kiev authorities themselves and the commanders of nationalist formations to continue to hold civilians as a "human shield".

If civilians are still at the metallurgical plant, then Russia once again categorically demanded that the Kiev authorities immediately give the appropriate order to the commanders of nationalist formations for their release.

This statement will be continuously brought to the Ukrainian formations at Azovstal via radio channels at intervals of every 30 minutes.

Through operational communication channels, this statement is immediately brought to the Ukrainian side through the Deputy Prime Minister of the Government of Ukraine Irina Vereshchuk. It looks like that she does not distribute such information.

Meanwhile, Kiev once again staged a faked video describing civilians staying underground of Azovstal plant. Strange that they are joyful, well-nourished, clean and very good clothes, many small girls and boys used female lipstick. The basement is also very clean and has full electric light. But in reality, there are no water, electricity and food in the underground bunkers of the plant. It is not Azovstal. It is a humanitarian aid distribution center located without mentioning specific date and place of its location.

2. Evacuation of refugees: general figures

Despite the obstacles created by Kiev, over the past day, without the participation of the Ukrainian authorities, 16,838 people were evacuated to Russia from dangerous areas of Ukraine, Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, including 1,402 children, and in total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 951,329 people have already been evacuated, of which 174,689 are children. The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 124,517 units of personal motor transport, of which 1,746 per day. it was possible to evacuate 143,631 civilians and 341 foreign citizens from Mariupol, as well as to carry out the safe withdrawal of 1,844 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who surrendered. Humanitarian corridors have been opened at Azovstal plant April 19-23, 2022 from 14:00 to 16:00. Nobody used them

In the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, more than 9.5 thousand temporary accommodation facilities continue to operate, which are fully equipped with all necessary property, they provide places for rest and hot meals. Individual work is carried out with arriving refugees, they are provided with qualified medical and psychological assistance.

There are 2,752,552 requests have been received from foreign and Ukrainian citizens of them in the database from 2,129 settlements of Ukraine.

Ukrainian nationalists continue to hold 90 foreign citizens from 5 countries hostage as a "human shield".

3. Humanitarian aid distribution

The federal executive authorities, together with the subjects of the Russian Federation, various public organizations and patriotic movements, continue to accumulate

More than 22 thousand tons of humanitarian aid, Including basic necessities and food packages, have been collected at the collection points.

Since March 2, the Russian Federation has already delivered 14,528.9 tons of basic necessities, food, medicines and medical products to Ukraine, 888 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including seven in the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, Kharkov and Kherson regions over the past day, during which 207.5 tons of humanitarian aid were transferred to the civilian population.

On April 23, 2022, seven humanitarian actions are held in Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, Kharkov and Kherson regions, during which 559.2 tons of basic necessities and food are transferred to the population.

4. Situation at the Black Sea

76 foreign vessels from 18 countries continue are still blocked in seven Ukrainian ports. The threat of shelling and high mine danger created by official Kiev in its internal waters and territorial sea do not allow vessels to freely enter the open sea. Every day from 08:00 to 19:00 (Moscow time), the Russian Armed Forces open a humanitarian corridor at the Black Sea, which is a safe lane for ships moving in a south-westerly direction from the territorial sea of Ukraine with a length of 80 and a width of 3 nautical miles. Detailed information on the functioning of the maritime humanitarian corridor is transmitted daily every 15 minutes via VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels in English and Russian.

In turn, the Russian Federation is taking a full range of comprehensive measures to ensure civil navigation in the waters of the Black, Azov and Mediterranean Seas.

There remains a danger to navigation from the drift of Ukrainian mines torn from their anchors along the coast of the Black Sea states. So far, several of them have been destroyed at sea.

5. Fact Sheet on U.S. Security Assistance for Ukraine

As of April 22, the USA has committed more than $4 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration, including approximately $3.4 billion since the beginning of Russia’s unprovoked invasion on February 24.

On April 21, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to an additional $800 million tailored to meet critical Ukrainian needs for today’s fight as Russian forces launch a renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine.  This authorization is the eighth drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.

As of April 22, United States security assistance committed to Ukraine includes:

  • Over 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
  • Over 5,500 Javelin anti-armor systems;
  • Over 14,000 other anti-armor systems;
  • Over 700 Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems;
  • 90 155mm Howitzers and 183,000 155mm artillery rounds;
  • 72 Tactical Vehicles to tow 155mm Howitzers;
  • 16 Mi-17 helicopters;
  • Hundreds of Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles;
  • 200 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
  • Over 7,000 small arms;
  • Over 50,000,000 rounds of ammunition;
  • 75,000 sets of body armor and helmets;
  • 121 Phoenix Ghost Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems;
  • Laser-guided rocket systems;
  • Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems;
  • Unmanned Coastal Defense Vessels;
  • 14 counter-artillery radars;
  • Four counter-mortar radars;
  • Two air surveillance radars;
  • M18A1 Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
  • C-4 explosives and demolition equipment for obstacle clearing;
  • Tactical secure communications systems;
  • Night vision devices, thermal imagery systems, optics, and laser rangefinders;
  • Commercial satellite imagery services;
  • Explosive ordnance disposal protective gear;
  • Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear protective equipment;
  • Medical supplies to include first aid kits.

A PIN-POINT QUESTION:

What Russian troops will do with all these weapons? What do you think?

1. It will destroy them. 2. It will welcome them.3. it will additionally blame the USA for waging a proxy war and for not having any intention to stop it?


6. Situation on the battlefields

High-precision sea- and air-based long-range weapons on the northern outskirts of Kremenchuk destroyed fuel production facilities of an oil refinery, as well as storage facilities for oil products to supply military equipment of Ukrainian troops.

During the night, 6 enemy assets were hit by high-precision air-based missiles. Among them: 3 strong points and areas of concentration of manpower and military equipment, as well as 3 ammunition depots in Barvenkovo and Novaya Dmitrovka in Kharkov Region.

Operational-tactical and army aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit 56 military assets of Ukraine. Among them: 2 command posts and 53 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 1 fuel storage facility near Novaya Dmitrovka.

Up to 160 nationalists, as well as more than 23 armoured vehicles, artillery mounts and cars, were destroyed.

Missile troops carried out 19 strikes during the night. Destroyed: 4 command posts of the nationalists, including the 81st Separate Airborne Assault Brigade and the 110th Territorial Defence Brigade, and three ammunition depots. 21 areas of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment concentration were hit.

Up to 240 nationalists, as well as more than 28 armoured vehicles, artillery mounts and cars, were destroyed.

Artillery units carried out 967 fire missions during the day. Destroyed: 33 command posts, 929 strong points, areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 5 missile and artillery weapons and ammunition depots.

Russian air defence means shot down 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Mezhurino, Balakleya, Borodoyarkoe, Nevskoe in Kharkov Region and Vysokoe and Chernobaevka in Kherson Region.

In addition, Pantsir-S anti-aircraft missile and cannon system shot down 1 Ukrainian Tochka-U missile and 18 rockets of a multiple-launch rocket system over Chernobaeka.


In total, 141 aircraft and 110 helicopters, 566 unmanned aerial vehicles, 265 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,526 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 283 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,096 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,362 special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the Operation “Z”.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 52. Vladimir Putin: russian response will be swift

April 28th, 2022

 

1. Putin promises that all goals of the operation will be attained, and response to strategic threats to Russia will be ‘lightning-fast’

On the Day of Russian Parliamentarism (April 27th), the President met with members of the Council of Lawmakers at the Federation Council of the Russian Federation. The meeting was held in the Tauride Palace, Saint Petersburg.

President warned that Russia won’t hesitate to use unspecified “tools” that no other country’ possesses to defend itself. He has warned outside forces against interfering in the Ukrainian conflict, promising a “lightning-speed” response to such actions.

“If someone decides to intervene in the ongoing events from the outside and create unacceptable strategic threats to us, they should know that our response to those oncoming blows will be swift, lightning-fast,” Putin said in an address to lawmakers.

“We have all the tools to do this. Tools that no one except us can brag about. But we’re not going to brag. We’ll use them if such a need arises,” the president said, without specifying which tools could be deployed.

Russian authorities have already made all necessary decisions to prepare for such a response, he added.

Putin emphasized again: all the goals of the special military operation launched on February 24 will definitely be attained in order to guarantee peace and security for the residents of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, of Russian Crimea, and the entire country [Russia] in a historical perspective.

He reminded that Russian soldiers and officers have averted a real danger posed to the Motherland: “Their courage, determination, and heroism have prevented a larger conflict that would have unfolded on our territory, but following someone else's scenarios. The outside forces that have always pursued a policy of containing Russia – historically indeed, they did so in ancient times, and you know very well why they did this – they do not want such a huge and independent country that is too big for their ideas. They believe it endangers them simply by the fact of its existence. Although this is far from reality; it is they who endanger the world, Putin underscored.

“We have not forgotten the barbarous plans of the Nazis for the Soviet people – to drive them out”, he continued. “You remember, don’t you? They wanted to force those who could work to work like slaves, do slave labour in bondage. Those who were not wanted were supposed to be sent beyond the Urals or to the North to extinction. All this was recorded in documents, in historical documents. We remember this.

We also remember how the Western states encouraged terrorists and criminals in the North Caucasus in the early 1990s and 2000s, how they exploited the problems of our past, real problems, injustices of the past as regards entire peoples, including the peoples of the Caucasus. But they did all this not to make us better, not at all. They did all this to bring the problems of the past to us today, to encourage separatist attitudes in our country and eventually to split and destroy it. This is why they did all this. They wanted to drive us into the backwoods. Many have tried to do the same to Russia throughout all eras.

They did not reach their goal but could not accept their failure, that we managed to hold out against this onslaught at the time. This is why they later launched large-scale preparations for an economic war against Russia, using any excuse, and sometimes without any excuse at all, to impose more and more sanctions on us; but today’s plans to strangle us economically have also fallen through.

In addition, our enemies have been expediting the development of new “geopolitical weapons.” These weapons are basically nothing new, but they obviously gave them new motivation and a new impetus. They placed their bets on Russophobia and neo-Nazis and were impudently, unceremoniously turning our neighbor Ukraine into an “anti-Russia” year after year.

I would like to recall that when Russia had a benevolent, I would say, a friendly, comradely, fraternal attitude to the creation of an independent Ukrainian state, we thought, of course, that it would be a friendly state, that we could go further together, strengthening and developing each other and creating the most competitive conditions for progress – yes, in new and historical conditions. No one could imagine the creation of an “anti-Russia” on historical Russian territory. We simply cannot allow this to happen, and so it all comes down to a conflict, a direct conflict. Ukraine was pushed into direct confrontation with Russia, our country. Let me remind you that this was, unfortunately, all laid out, including an armed attack on Crimea and Donbass, in Ukraine’s doctrinal documents of today, while at the same time, the Ukrainian people were allotted the destiny of “expendable material.” I believe a large part of the Ukrainian people are coming to realise this.

The entire course of recent events, including the Kiev regime’s claims to possess nuclear weapons, the deployment of a network of Western biolabs on Ukrainian territory, the seamless supplies of cutting-edge weapons to Ukraine, has confirmed that our reaction to those cynical plans was correct and timely.”

[note: the full text is on the Kremlin website: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68297]

 2. Humanitarian issues

During the special military operation, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the formations of the DPR and LPR liberated significant territories of the Donetsk, Lugansk people's republics, the entire Kherson region, part of the Kharkov, Zaporozhye and Nikolaev regions. Peaceful life is being established in these territories, life support facilities for the population, social infrastructure and housing and communal services are being actively restored. The sowing campaign has begun. The local population, who had previously left these areas for the central and western regions of Ukraine, currently cannot return back. The Kiev regime and the fighters of nationalist armed formations in every way prevent their citizens from returning home. All humanitarian corridors opened by the Russian side are blocked.

To date, the hotline of the Russian Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response has already received 2,753,477 requests for evacuation to the territories controlled by the Russian army and to Russia itself.

Russia will continue to appeal to the relevant structures of the United Nations, the OSCE, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other international organizations to assist Ukrainian citizens to return to their homes through all available information resources.

The Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, in cooperation with the authorized federal executive authorities, continues to record numerous facts of the inhumane attitude of the Kiev authorities to civilians:

in the city of Liman, Donetsk People's Republic, in a nursing home, Ukrainian nationalist fighters have set up a stronghold in a nursing home and placed heavy weapons, while the staff and elderly citizens are forcibly held as "human shields;

in the city of Nikolaev, territorial defence fighters have prepared another sophisticated provocation with numerous victims. For this purpose, in the Korabelny district near the enterprise Nikolaev aircraft repair plant on Znamenskaya street, neo-Nazis installed radio-controlled explosive devices with projectile elements, which they plan to activate in case of a mass gathering of civilians and blame Russian servicemen for this. We warn the so-called civilized West in advance that this and other similar bloody fakes from the Kiev authorities about the alleged "Russian atrocities" are planned to be widely spread through the Western media in the near future.

Such actions of the Ukrainian authorities, once again, demonstrate their inhumane attitude to the fate of the people of Ukraine and indicate complete disregard for all norms of morality and international humanitarian law.

Despite the obstacles created by Kiev, over the past day, without the participation of the Ukrainian authorities, 10,715 people were evacuated from dangerous areas of Ukraine, Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics to the territory of the Russian Federation, 1,723 of them children, and in total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 985,949 people have already been evacuated, of which 178,814 children.

The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 129,025 units of personal motor transport, per day – 1,539.

Ukrainian nationalists continue to hold 90 foreign citizens from five countries hostage as a "human shield". So, this figure radically went down.

3. Distribution of humanitarian aid

The Russian federal executive authorities, together with the subjects of the Russian Federation, various public organizations and patriotic movements, continue to accumulate humanitarian aid.

More than 22 thousand tons of basic necessities and food packages, including infant food and vital medicines, have been prepared at the collection points.

Since March 2nd, the Russian Federation has already delivered 15,526.5 tons of basic necessities, food, medicines and medical products to Ukraine, 906 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 11 humanitarian actions in the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, Kharkov and Kherson regions over the past day, during which civilians 502.2 tons of humanitarian aid were transferred. Just to compare: so far the UN arranged only five convoys to Ukraine.

On April 26th, 2022, 14 humanitarian actions are being held in the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, Kharkov and Kherson regions, during which 414.6 tons of basic necessities and food are being transferred to the population.

4.  Transnistria: one more area of tension?

On April 26th, unidentified assailants blew up two antennae of the regional radio center in the community of Mayak of the Grigoriopol district in Transnistria. On Monday, the building of the Transnistrian State Security Ministry in Tiraspol was shelled from hand-held grenade launchers and a military unit in the village of Parkany was attacked. The Transnistrian authorities qualified the blasts and the shelling as terror attacks. There have been no reports about victims so far.

The authorities of the Transnistrian Republic sandwiched between Ukraine and Moldova will set up checkpoints in cities after a series of terrorist attacks, Transnistria’s President Vadim Krasnoselsky said after a meeting of the republic’s Security Council on April 26th. "Checkpoints will be established at the entry to the republic’s cities. Auto transport and citizens will be inspected selectively in the daytime while control measures in the nighttime will apply to every person arriving at a populated area. Security agencies have switched to heightened alert," the presidential press office quoted Krasnoselsky as saying. Members of the Transnistrian Security Council said earlier on April 26th that the level of danger had turned critical in the republic and declared heightened terror alert for 15 days and bolstered security measures.

In 1992 Moldova attacked the republic, but failed to capture it. The republic has very close ties with Russia, its own currency. The security it in is maintained by its own Armed Forces and Russian peacekeepers staying there under special international arrangement.

5. The situation at the Black Sea

The situation remains the same as before, reflected in Report # 51.

6. Situation on the battlefront

Ukrainian Armed Forces continue shelling the DPR and LPR. In Donetsk 3 personas have been killed and 20 injured when the UAF shelled market place.

Late evening on April 27th the UAF shelled Kherson having Ukrainian citizens by three Tochka-U cluster missiles, two of them being intercepted.

The U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines has reportedly lifted more restrictions on intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, sources told Bloomberg on Wednesday, adding that the expanded access is aimed at helping Kiev seize the breakaway republics in Donbass. The source claimed Haines told Congress about the expanded intel-sharing after Congressman Mike Turner (R-Ohio), the chief Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, insisted in a classified letter that the Biden administration remove any restrictions on sharing intelligence.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continued a special military operation in Ukraine.

Tactical and army aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit 59 military facilities of Ukraine overnight. Among them: 50 areas of concentration of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment, four weapons and ammunition depots near the settlements of Chervonye, Dolgenkoe, Pashkoe and Veseloe, and a Buk-M1 antiaircraft missile system near Slavyansk.As a result of the strikes, over 120 nationalists and 35 armored vehicles and vehicles were destroyed.

Missile troops and artillery performed 573 firing tasks during the night. Hit: 432 areas of concentration of enemy manpower and military equipment, 67 artillery positions, two batteries of multiple rocket launchers, as well as seven ammunition depots.

Russian air defence means shot down 18 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the areas of the settlements of Alexandrovka, Balakleya, Bryanka, Zaporozhskoe, Izium, Kapitolovka, Peremoga, Petrovka, Popasnoye, Proletarskoye, Trudolyubovka, including two Bayraktar-TB2 UAVs in the area of the settlements of Kalesnikovka and Krasny Liman.

In addition, a Ukrainian tactical missile Tochka-U was shot down over the settlement of Ilyichevka.


In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 141 aircraft, 110 helicopters, 607 unmanned aerial vehicles, 273 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,596 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 296 multiple rocket launchers, 1,134 field artillery & mortar guns, as well as 2,413 special military vehicles have been destroyed.


7. Destruction of NATO foreign military aid to Kiev

Moscow has repeatedly slammed the deliveries of lethal aid to Ukraine, saying they only destabilize the situation and hamper the prospects of peace. On April 26th Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused NATO of “essentially going to war with Russia through a proxy and arming that proxy.”

A large batch of weapons and ammunition shipped to Kiev by Western countries was destroyed in southeastern Ukraine on April 27th, Russia's Defense Ministry has said. A military warehouse set up on the territory of the Zaporozhye industrial aluminum plant was struck by Kalibr missiles, fired from Russian Navy vessels in the Black Sea.

The facility hosted "a large batch of foreign weapons and ammunition, supplied by the US and European countries to the Ukrainian army," the ministry said.

On April 25th, Moscow announced the destruction of six railway hubs in western Ukraine, saying they were used to deliver "foreign weapons and military hardware to the Ukrainian forces."

“These weapons will be a legitimate target for the Russian Armed Forces,” Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated on Tuesday. “Warehouses, including in the west of Ukraine, have become such a target more than once. How else could it be? NATO is essentially going to war with Russia through a proxy and arming that proxy. War means war.”

But NATO members, who have already armed Kiev with anti-tank and anti-aircraft missile systems, armored vehicles, howitzers, and other weapons, are showing no sign of backing down.

Russia has repeatedly warned the US and its allies in the UK and EU against sending lethal aid to Ukraine, saying it only destabilizes the situation and hampers the prospects of peace.

8. Russia has not placed its nuclear forces on high alert

Some unprofessional Western experts continue to circulate rumors immediately after “invading Ukraine” on February 24, President Putin elevated the threat of nuclear war by placing the Russian nuclear forces on high alert.

However, the vivid and undeniable truth is that NOBODY IN RUSSIA HAS PLACED RUSSIAN NUCLEAR FORCES ON HIGH ALERT. Neither Mr Putin, not the Russian Senate. Urging operators of the Russian deterrence forces to be more attentive and vigilant during their shifts does not mean elevation of the NW on high alert. The same practice exists in all 9 NW states.

It is very strange that somebody not having any official document or statement to prove that, actually disseminates via Internet a false information. As well as the AP, obviously biased news agency, highly motivated to prolong the third Ukrainian aggression versus Donbass from 2014 till today. It is not a sirendipity that the report on that "faked fact" has been forged by an AP correspondent accredited in Kiev. A quote: "KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — President Vladimir Putin dramatically escalated East-West tensions by ordering ...".  Another quotation from the AP statement: "The Russian leader is “potentially putting in play forces that, if there’s a miscalculation, could make things much, much more dangerous,” said a senior U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss rapidly unfolding military operations"  cannot be interpreted as "elevation of the NW on high alert". Any person speaking "on condition of anonymity" can invent any ghost-story without any punishment and subsequent responsibility for that.

The Russian State Duma, the Lower House of th Russian Parliament, has stated that after February 24th Kiev has invented and circulated 5 mln (five million} around the world different fakes concerning the Operation "Z” (unofficial name-tag for the military operation).

So, the latest one dealt with the alleged "placing the Russian nuclear forces on high alert " is de facto five million and first (5.000.001) faked piece of news.


A STRAIGHT-FORWARD QUESTION:

Why the collective West agreed to deliver arms to Ukraine worth of $ 8 billion,

but so far delivered  humanitarian aid to it for less than $ 50 million?


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

 

Report # 54. 80 civilians safely left Azovstal plant

1. Totally 80 civilians left Azovstal plant via a humanitarian corridor

Thanks to the initiative of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin Russian and the DPR troops managed to rescue 80 civilians, including women and children, held by Ukrainian nationalists from the territory of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol. Units of the Russian Armed Forces and the People's Militia of the Donetsk People's Republic provided a "regime of silence" and opened a humanitarian corridor for the safe evacuation of civilians and

The released civilians were evacuated to the settlement of Bezymennoye of the Donetsk People's Republic, where they were provided with overnight accommodation, food and the necessary medical care.

Civilians evacuated by Russian servicemen from the Azovstal plant who wished to leave for areas controlled by the Kiev regime were handed over to representatives of the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross. The rest went to Donbass.

A video released by the military on May 1st shows people leaving in buses marked with the ‘Z’ symbol. Ambulances can also be seen.

2. Over 77,000 Germans sign petition not to supply heavy weaponry to Kiev

BERLIN, May 1. /TASS/. A petition to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, requesting him not to supply heavy weaponry to Ukraine, gathered more than 77,000 signatures as of late April 30th.

About 30 culture and art figures, including journalists, musicians and actors, have sent an open letter to Scholz, asking him not to supply heavy weaponry to Kiev. The full text was published by the Emma magazine.

The signatories ask the German premier not to send heavy weaponry to the Ukrainian military, because this can eventually trigger the third world war. At the same time, they declare support to the premier’s efforts aimed at preventing the events in Ukraine from evolving into a new global conflict. "That is why we hope that you will recollect your initial stance and will not supply any more heavy weapons to Ukraine, directly or indirectly. On the contrary, we urge you to do your best to achieve a soonest ceasefire: [we are calling] for a compromise acceptable for both sides," the letter says.

Authors of the petition believe that by supplying heavy weaponry to Ukraine in large amounts, Germany may eventually find itself embroiled in the conflict, including if Article Five of the NATO Collective Security Treaty is triggered. In this case, a new world war may begin, the letter says.

The German parliament voted on April 28th to support a document, calling upon the government to increase military aid to Kiev and to "intensify and expedite German supplies of <…> heavy weapons and sophisticated systems in coordination with partners."

Up until now, Scholz has demonstrated a very cautious approach to supplying heavy weaponry to Ukraine, and found himself under huge pressure for his reluctance to do so. In his interview to Spiegel on April 22nd, he vowed to do everything within his power to prevent NATO from becoming embroiled in the Ukrainian conflict.

A group of protesters heckled German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during a speech on April 30th as she defended the government’s decision to send weapons to Ukraine. Around 1,000 people gathered to hear Baerbock speak in the northern German town of Ahrensburg. At the same time, roughly 150 attendees booed the minister and used whistles, sirens, and loudspeakers when she was on stage, police said. Some shouted “warmonger” and “liar” at Baerbock.

3. Eva Bartlett: Ukrainian strike on Donetsk market was a terrorist act

 

Released April 30th 2022 at 20:11

 

“If the Donetsk marketplace that was hit by rocket artillery on Thursday had been in a city controlled by Kiev, the names and faces of the five civilians killed would be on all major news sites. But because it was another Ukrainian attack on civilians in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), the deaths and 23 additional civilians injured will almost certainly go unreported, as has the been the norm during the regime’s eight years of the Donbass and Western media’s eight years of ignoring the attacks.

According to the DPR's Healthcare Ministry, “The strike at the Tekstilschik neighbourhood in the Kirovsky district killed four people on the spot. One patient died in an ambulance during the transportation.”

With another journalist, I went in a taxi to the bombed markets. Two of the dead still lay at the site when we arrived, splayed on the ground. The other bodies had already been removed, but traces of their blood remained on the ground, doors nearby were riddled with shrapnel holes and debris from the strike was all around.

Presumably, rescue workers dealt with the injured first and didn’t prioritize retrieving all the dead as further Ukrainian strikes were possible. I saw this during my experience in Gaza, where Israeli's waited for people to come to the scene of their attack, then bombed again.

According to Gennady Andreevich, a local employee of the district's safety commission, at 11:40 am Grad missiles struck two different nearby markets: the vegetable and clothing market where the bodies lay, and a household chemicals and building materials market across and down the street. The latter was far more damaged, stalls completely burnt out, but no one was killed there.

Gennady walked with us to the vegetable market, speaking about previous Ukrainian attacks–which have been happening since 2014. More recent shellings hit near a gas station outside the market, at a residential building beyond the market, and in his own market administrative building, killing two colleagues.

He noted that at this time of day the market would have been filled with people, and that Ukraine knows very well what it is firing at.

“They know there is a market here and that from 10am to 1pm there are many people here,” Gennady said as we walked past shops.

This is a completely civilian area, no military installations”.

 

A comment: Mikael S600    2 days ago

“As an American I'm so sick of our government and media ignorance of what Ukraine is doing to these people! The hypocrisy is insane”.

 

Note: Eva Bartlett is a Canadian independent journalist. She has spent years on the ground covering conflict zones in the Middle East, especially in Syria and Palestine (where she lived for nearly four years). @evakbartlett

[ https://www.rt.com/russia/554744-donetsk-market-strike-terrorism]

4. Demilitarization continues

MOSCOW, May 1. /TASS/. Aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed two S-300 missile systems and damaged two warehouses with ammunition and fuel on Ukrainian territory, spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry Major General Igor Konashenkov told reporters on May 1st.

"Operational-tactical and army aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed two Ukrainian S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems in the areas of the settlements of Zaporozhye and Artemovsk. Two ammunition and fuel warehouses in the areas of the settlements of Privolnoe and Shevchenko of the Zaporozhye region were hit, as well as 15 strongholds and areas of concentration of forces and equipment," he said.

The Russian Armed Forces destroyed a hangar with weapons and ammunition delivered from the United States and European countries to the Odessa region using Oniks missiles and destroyed the runway of a military airfield, Konashenkov added. "High-precision Onyx missiles destroyed a hangar with weapons and ammunition received from the United States and European countries at a military airfield in the Odessa region and also destroyed the runway," he said.

Seven military facilities of Ukraine were hit by high-precision missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces, including three warehouses of missile weapons and ammunition, Konashenkov added. "High-precision air-launched missile of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit seven military facilities of Ukraine, including four areas of concentration of forces and military equipment, as well as three warehouses of missile and artillery weapons and ammunition in the areas of the settlements of Berezovoe in the Donetsk People's Republic, Slatino and Barvenkovo in the Kharkov region," he said.

At the same time, Russian air defense systems destroyed two Ukrainian Su-24M aircraft, 12 drones, and two Tochka-U missiles. "Russian air defense systems shot down two Su-24M bombers of the Ukrainian Air Force in the Kharkov region. Also 12 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed during the night," Konashenkov said.

 


In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 145 aircraft, 112 helicopters, 672 unmanned aerial vehicles, 281 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,703 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 312 multiple launch rocket systems and 2514 special military vehicles have been destroyed

 


5. Why Russia uses the term “genocide”

The term "genocide" is used in relation to three Ukrainian aggressions vs Donbass. The meaning of "genocide" is described in the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide approved and proposed for signature and ratification or accession by the UN General Assembly resolution 260 A (III) of 9 December 1948 Entry into force: 12 January 1951, in accordance with article XIII, especially from Articles I and II.

          Article I. The Contracting Parties confirm that genocide, whether committed in time of peace or in time of war, is a crime under international law which they undertake to prevent and to punish.

          Article II. In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such: (a) killing members of the group; (b) causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; (c) deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; (d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; (e) forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

          Ukraine has killed 14,000 and injured 34,000 civilians in Donbass during two armed aggressions (2014-2015), and is killing civilians there after February 24th, 2022 as well.

          Ukraine has intentionally killed and is killing Russians and Ukrainians who profess Orthodox Christianity. The DPR found 300 massive civilians' graves on the territory it has captured after February 24th, 2022.

          Ukrainian Armed Forces shells the DPR and LPR every day since the signing of the Minsk Accord (2015) intentionally selecting houses and social infrastructure there by using heavy weapons of 156, 122 and 120 mm, and cluster munitions.

          Zelensky publicly said that all Russians living in Donbass should go to Russia.

          Ukraine banned Russian language in Donbass.

          Under secret Presidential act of 2014 Ukrainian military has the right to soot to kill without investigation and trial all those residents in Donbass who display disloyalty towards ultra-nationalist regime  that came to power due to a bloody coup.

6. A warning from Moscow to Ukraine and its masters in NATO

The scale of the West's participation in Kiev's third aggression against Donbass and its own citizens is growing. It obvious fact. Nearly a week ago the total amount of arms supplies from the USA to a failed Ukrainian regime in terms of money was nearly $ 4 billion, nowadays their price tag might reach $ 20 billion. And this figure seemingly is not the final one. The USA and its aggressive NATO allies intend to send tanks and combat aircraft. Under the guise of mercenaries and instructors they send to Ukrainian Armed Forces to fight as real gunners, tank drivers, ECM operators, commanding and intelligence officers with the only aim – to continue fighting vs Donbass for many more years.

British Foreign Minister Liz Truss, with a claim to the collective position of Europe, called the Russian-Ukrainian regional conflict "the confrontation of the West with Russia." On April 28, she also called for expanding the geography of arms supplies to new "hot spots", to which she referred Georgia and Moldova.

U.K. Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said it was "completely legitimate" for Ukraine to hit logistical targets in Russia. He told Times Radio on April 26th that Ukraine was justified in seeking to disrupt Russian supplies. "In war, Ukraine needs to strike into its opponents' depth to attack its logistics lines, its fuel supplies, its ammunition depots, and that's part of it," he said. In his words, "It is completely legitimate for Ukraine to be targeting in Russia's depth in order to disrupt the logistics, that if they weren't disrupted would directly contribute to death and carnage on Ukrainian soil." Heappey acknowledged the weapons provided by the West to Ukraine "have the range to be used over the borders" in Russia,

The same day, the head of the MoD, Ben Wallace, "brought into compliance" with the norms of international law the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on "supply facilities of the Russian Army," including on the territory of the Russian Federation.

The leaders of the United States and Great Britain on various international platforms, intimidating the public with the outbreak of World War III, are increasingly dragging the collective West into a proxy war in Ukraine, developed and sponsored by NATO and the United States. There are calls everywhere on the need to increase the supply of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine, including long-range artillery and air defense systems.

The number of anti-Russian provocations is also growing. At the end of April, Poland and Romania announced military exercises near the borders with Ukraine and Moldova.

Multibillion-dollar arms supplies to Ukraine are emptying the budgets of European states every day. With reservations about the urgent need for assistance from the West, the President of Ukraine Zelensky assures the world community of his readiness to resist Russia "at least for the next 10 years." According to these terms, the opinions of Zelensky and Ms Trust surprisingly coincided. By accident?

Despite this the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, speaking to the deputies of the Federal Assembly on April 27, once again stressed that all the tasks of the special military operation will certainly be fulfilled, and gave a warning that if someone intends to interfere in the ongoing events from the outside and create unacceptable strategic threats of a strategic nature unacceptable to Russia, then they should know that Russia’s counter-strikes will be lightning fast.

Russia is ready for a decisive response to all those who stand in the way of achieving the goals of a special military operation. “We have all the tools to do this. Tools that no one except us can brag about. But we’re not going to brag. We’ll use them if such a need arises,”  the President of the Russian Federation underlined.

On February 28th by his order, the national deterrence forces have already improved the regime of the operators’ on duty, although they have not increased the degree of combat readiness of the nuclear forces. On April 20, a successful test launch of a new generation intercontinental ballistic missile "Sarmat", which has no analogues in the world, equipped with a hypersonic gliding vehicle, was carried out.

Vladimir Putin's statement in Saint Petersburg bears a direct signal to both the collective West and Ukraine that in the event of their direct or indirect intervention, Russia will be ready to respond with all the "tools" it has. Including in case of encroachment on its sovereignty and territorial integrity, against the Republic of Crimea, whose territory has been part of the Russian Empire since 1783, and Donbass that has no desire to live inside ultra-nationalist country killing its people and destroying its economy and normal life.

 

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Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Report # 55. Lavrov: Russia demands that Zelensky should give the order to release all civilians and to stop resisting

May 3rd, 2022

1. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s clarified some new details in an interview with Mediaset, Italian TV network, Moscow, May 1, 2022

There are some key points:

Russia has never ceased its efforts to reach agreements that would guarantee the prevention of a nuclear war. In recent years, it was Russia who has persistently proposed to its American colleagues that we repeat what Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan did in 1987: adopt a statement reaffirming that there can be no winners in a nuclear war, and therefore it must never be unleashed.

In June 2021, at a meeting between President of Russia Vladimir Putin and US President Joseph Biden in Geneva a statement was adopted on the inadmissibility of a nuclear war. Let me stress: this was done at our initiative.

In January 2022, five permanent members of the UN Security Council adopted a similar statement at the highest level, also at our initiative: there can be no winners in a nuclear war. It must never be unleashed. In order to achieve this goal, President Vladimir Putin proposed convening a summit of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. This proposal was supported by our Chinese colleagues and France. The United States and the United Kingdom, which always defers to it, are holding back this important event for the time being.

After I said this, I urged everyone to exercise utmost caution not to escalate the existing threats. I was referring to the statement made by President Vladimir Zelensky in February that it had been a mistake for Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons and it was necessary to acquire them again. There was also a statement made by the leadership of Poland about their readiness to deploy American nuclear weapons on their territory, and much more.

Somehow there were no questions from the media about the statements made by Vladimir Zelensky and Poland. Or after the statement by Foreign Minister of France Jean-Yves Le Drian, who said suddenly: Let us not forget that France also has nuclear weapons. This is what I was talking about. When Western journalists take words out of context and distort the meaning of what I or other Russian representatives actually said, this does them no credit.

Our warnings issued in November and December 2021 about the need to stop NATO’s reckless expansion to the east and agree on security guarantees that that will not be related to the accession of new countries to the military-political bloc were rejected. I would even say the answer we received was not very polite: “It’s none of your business,” “we will expand NATO as we wish,” and “we won’t ask for your permission.”

It makes no difference to me what President Vladimir Zelensky refutes or does not refute. He is as fickle as the wind, as they say. He can change his position several times a day.

When Vladimir Zelensky said he was ready for Ukraine’s neutral non-bloc status, he made a serious step forward, which we welcomed. However, after that, his ministers and the Parliament speaker of Ukraine started saying that they should receive security guarantees but the goal of joining NATO (as stated in their constitution) will remain. Now NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the British started saying that if the Ukrainians want to preserve this goal, they have the right to do so. This is what I am talking about.

On March 30, Russian troops left Bucha. The following day, on March 31, Bucha Mayor Anatoly Fedoruk proclaimed victory in front of television cameras saying that the city had returned to normal life. Only three days later they began to show photographs of these bodies. I don’t even want to go into detail, because it is so obviously fake that any serious observer can see it at a glance.

All problems could have been solved peacefully by Petr Poroshenko who was elected in 2014 under the slogan “Peace in Donbass.” Then he started the war. It could have been solved by Vladimir Zelensky. During his election campaign, he presented himself as the “president of peace.” In December 2019, he promised to fulfill the Minsk agreements and adopt a law granting a special status to Donbass within the unbroken territorial integrity of Ukraine. He had every chance. All the cards and even the trump cards were in his hands.

Vladimir Zelensky chose to say publically and arrogantly that he will never abide by the Minsk agreements because allegedly this would mean the fall of the Ukrainian nation and state. Everyone who drafted and approved the Minsk agreements at the UN Security Council kept silent. They said that he could stop implementing them if he wanted but Russia should continue to. That’s who could have brought peace.

Vladimir Zelensky can also bring peace now if he stops giving illegal orders to his neo-Nazi battalions and makes them release all civilians and stop resisting.

We are not demanding that he surrender. We are demanding that he give the order to release all civilians and to stop resisting. Our goal does not include regime change in Ukraine. This is the specialty of the US. They do it all over the world.

We want to ensure the safety of people in eastern Ukraine, so that they won’t be threatened by militarisation and nazification and that no threats against the Russian Federation emanate from Ukrainian territory.

Money was stolen from us (over $300 billion). Just stolen. A large part of the sum was payment for gas and oil supplies. It was only possible because Gazprom had to keep money in accounts in Western banks (according to your rules). They wanted to punish Russia, so they stole it.

Now they suggest we continue trading as before, and the money remains in their accounts. They will steal it again when they want to. This is the reason. Somehow no one talks about it. What happened to honest journalism?

What we are now proposing is that supplies should be considered paid for not when Gazprombank receives euros or dollars but when they are converted into roubles, which cannot be stolen. That’s the entire story. Our partners know this very well. Note that nothing changes for the buyers. They still pay the sums specified in the contract in euros and dollars. It is converted after that.

Our servicemen will not artificially time their actions to any date, including Victory Day. We will solemnly observe May 9, like we always do. We will remember everyone who died to liberate Russia and other former USSR republics, to liberate Europe from the Nazi plague. The pace of the operation in Ukraine depends first of all on the need to minimize risks for civilians and Russian military personnel.

 [full text is available at: https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1811569/?lang=en]

2. Statement of the Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine (May 2, 2022)

The Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, in co-operation with the authorized federal executive bodies and law enforcement agencies, continues to carefully record numerous egregious cases of nationalists using civilian infrastructure for military purposes, using civilians as "human shield":

(a) in Barvenkovo, Kharkiv Region, nationalists have set up a stronghold in the building of the Regional Psychiatric Hospital No 2 and forcibly detain civilians in the basement;

(b) in Dnepr (schools No. 2 and 28 and boarding school No. 2), Nikolaev (boarding school for deaf children), Kramatorsk (schools No. 9 and 6) and Slavyansk (school No. 14), the Ukrainian Armed Forces and fighters of the territorial defence battalions have equipped firing positions and deployed armoured vehicles, artillery and MLRS.

This fact is clear evidence of the continuing inhumane attitude of the Kiev authorities towards their own people.

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles imposed by the Ukrainian side, over the past day, without the participation of Kiev, 11,550 people were evacuated from dangerous areas, 1,847 of them children, and in total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 1,092,137 people have already been evacuated to Russia, of which 196,356 are children.  More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centres continue to operate in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and are fully equipped with recreational facilities and hot meals.

A significant part of the population forcibly held by radicals in Ukrainian cities is still looking for any opportunities to evacuate to Russia, as evidenced by numerous appeals of citizens through various channels to the official structures of the Russian Federation. Over the past 24 hours, the hotline of the Interdepartmental Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, federal executive authorities, constituent entities of the Russian Federation and various NGOs received 142 requests from foreign and Ukrainian citizens to evacuate to Russia, the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, as well as to the Russian Armed Forces-controlled areas of Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, Kharkov and Kherson regions.

In total there are 2,754,241 such appeals from persons to be evacuated to Russia from 2,133 locations in Ukraine in the database.

Federal executive authorities, together with the subjects of the Russian Federation, various public organizations, patriotic movements, continue to accumulate humanitarian aid. More than 23 tonnes of basic necessities and food kits, including baby food and life-saving medicines, have been prepared at collection points. Since March 2nd, 17,285.6 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 959 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 8 actions in Kharkov and Kherson regions, as well as in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics.

3. Situation on the battlefields

The Armed Forces of Ukraine continues the third military aggression vs Donbass, mainly targeting civilians and social infrastructure each day, including May 1-3.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

High-precision Onyx missiles near Odessa have hit a logistics center at a military airfield through which foreign weapons were being delivered. Hangars containing Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as missile weapons and ammunition from the US and European countries, were destroyed. High-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces have hit 6 Ukrainian military assets. Among them: one command post, one ammunition depot near Slatino, and 4 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration.

Operational-tactical and army aviation of the Russian Aerospace Force have hit 69 strong points and areas of concentration of AFU manpower and military equipment.

Missile troops have hit the command posts of the 81st Airmobile Brigade near Dolina and the 77th Territorial Defence Brigade near Podolovka, Kharkov Region. One S-300 anti-aircraft missile launcher was also destroyed near Kulbakino, Nikolaev Region.

Artillery units have struck 54 AFU artillery firing positions, 38 strong points, as well as 195 areas of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment concentration.

Up to 230 nationalists, as well as 52 units of weapons and military equipment have been destroyed.

Russian air defence means overnight have shot down 6 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Berezovka, Odessa Region, Borshchevaya and Chernyshchina, Kharkov Region, Barvinok, Kherson Region and Mikhailovka, Donetsk People's Republic.

Also shot down in the air: 1 Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missile near Dmitrovka and 2 Smerch multiple-launch rockets near Izyum.


In total, 146 aircraft and 112 helicopters, 696 unmanned aerial vehicles, 286 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,783 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 316 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,255 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,590 special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.


4. Politico: Combat death puts spotlight on Americans fighting in Ukraine

A former U.S. Marine who died last week was believed to be the first American citizen killed while fighting in Ukraine. Willy Joseph Cancel, 22, died April while working for a military contracting company that sent him to Ukraine, his mother, Rebecca Cabrera, told CNN.

Another American, Harrison Jozefowicz, quit his job as a Chicago police officer and headed overseas soon after Russia invaded Ukraine. An Army veteran, he said he couldn’t help but join American volunteers seeking to help Ukrainians in their fight.

Jozefowicz now heads a group called Task Force Yankee, which he said has placed more than 190 volunteers in combat slots and other roles while delivering nearly 15,000 first aid kits, helping relocate more than 80 families and helping deliver dozens of pallets of food and medical supplies to the southern and eastern fronts of the war. Jozefowicz, the former Chicago cop, says there are thousands of American and other volunteers in Ukraine. Multiple organizations are operating in the country, and he said his group alone has placed scores of volunteers in positions all over the country, with about 40 of those being combat jobs.

An undetermined number of other Americans — many with military backgrounds — are thought to be in the country battling Russian forces beside both Ukrainians and volunteers from other countries even though U.S. forces aren’t directly involved in fighting aside from sending military materiel, humanitarian aid and money.

Under some circumstances, Americans could face criminal penalties, or even risk losing their citizenship, by taking part in an overseas conflict, according to a senior federal law enforcement official.

[released May 1st, 2022// https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/01/marine-ukraine-killed-willy-cancel-00029197?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop]]

 


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 56. Putin asked Macron to help stop Ukrainian war crimes

May, 5th, 2022

1. The Russian president called on the West to halt weapons deliveries to Kiev

The West can help stop “war crimes” carried out by Ukrainian forces if it uses its influence over Kiev and ceases the supply of weapons to the country, Russian President Vladimir Putin told his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron on May 3rd.

During their phone conversation, which lasted for more than two hours, Putin claimed EU nations have ignored “the war crimes of the Ukrainian security forces, massive shelling of cities and towns in Donbass, resulting in civilian casualties.”

The speaker of the Russian State Duma Viacheslav Volodin said that all heads of states and governments of foreign countries that supply Ukraine with arms will be trialed as war criminals.

2.  Who is going to use NW in Ukraine?

Some persons living counties expressing unfriendly attitude towards Russia that cannot be regarded as experts in nuclear arms control have intensified their efforts to unjustifiably blame Moscow for alleged intention to use nuclear weapons (NW).

There are several methods to maintain constant interest to this issue.

The first one is related to the first announcement made by President Vladimir Putin about Russian military action versus Ukraine who began its third aggression against Donbass. The claim was written in the following way "Russian President Vladimir Putin's comments on the current global crisis have caused a great stir. On February 24, he signaled the potential use of nuclear weapons, stating: “To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside: if you do, you will face consequences greater than any of you have faced in history.” 

Vladimir Putin has not made any statement in favor of NW employment in Ukraine since he became the head of the Russian state. Russia has already inflicted heavy losses on the Ukrainian aggressors during the current defensive operation: Ukraine does not have Navy, nearly lost its Air Force. Around 3,000 tanks and APCs have been destroyed by conventional arms.

However, there is no term “NW” in Putin’s statement made on February 24th, 2022. Nevertheless, the end of the phrase “… you will face consequences greater than any of you have faced in history” has been interpreted as having the hint to NW. No, it does not have any hints to NW. But it can be applied to non-nuclear hypersonic weapons.

Another claim is like this: “If Russia no longer wishes to do this - if it has very sensibly stepped back from the brink - this is good news.”

It is natural that Russia should not step back from any commitment to use NW in Ukraine because it has never assumed such measure.

But the USA and the UK can use NW in Ukraine. The current U.S. NPR that specified 14 reasons to use NW permits to use them. British PM Boris Johnson threatened to use it in connection with Ukraine.  The USA has amassed several hundred TNW in Europe as a forward-based weapon, and several hundred of DCA certified to carry NW. The USA can use 19 military airfields in Europe that can offer landing rights for the U.S. heavy strategic bombers frequently flying over Europe with NW in the form of SOA.

Unfortunately, it is impossible to find such facts frequently in Western nuclear arms controllers’ analysis.

The second one is related to the meeting that took place between President Putin and the Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his Deputy, the head of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov. The claim said that : "On February 27, the situation escalated even more. He ordered the defense minister and the head of the Russian military to put its deterrence forces, including nuclear forces, on “special alert“ missions against Ukraine and NATO." There have been three intentional mistakes: Putin has not put Russian nuclear forces “on special alert” – there is no such degree in Russia -  he instructed to enhance regime of shifts of operators on duty in Russian deterrence forces that include conventional forces of the Air Force and the Navy, and nuclear forces; Ukraine and NATO have not been mentioned in Putin’s remarks at all.

The third one was attributed to some Russian newsmen and political figures who are not involved in drafting nuclear strategy in Russia, cannot change such doctrine. The claim sounded as: “Indeed there was, both in the Putin statement immediately after the invasion commenced and in Simonyans [CEO of the RT] statement more recently. There has never been the slightest shadow of doubt that nuclear weapons and nuclear war are what is being referenced..

The fact is that no single person in Russia (e.g. expert, guest in TV studio, politician and even the President) can unilaterally change the existing nuclear strategy. There are two obstacles: the Constitution and the Senate.

All hue and cry dealt with alleged use of the RF NW in Ukraine blowing in the West is arranged intentionally to cover up the U.S. use of NW in Ukraine. This is a real threat and reality. See the respective remarks recently made by William Oliver Stone.

At the same time the critics of Russian nuclear policy completely ignore the statements made by Boris Jonson, the UK PM, and Ukrainian president Zelensky at the 2022 Munich Security Conference on nuclear weapons. They also ignore the U.S. potential to use biological weapons in Ukraine and Russia as WMD.

A caveat:

The global anti-nuclear movement will not be able to attain positive results in its efforts, if it continues to take sides in nuclear arms domain, by criticizing one side and not noticing the harmful and dangerous policies and actions by the other.

Nuclear war mongers will exploit such phenomenon in their favor.

It is easy to oversleep nuclear attack. To avoid this tragic scenario strong prudence and well-balanced approach in identifying real nuclear threats are badly needed.

See Report # 55, item 1:  Report # 55.  Lavrov: Russia demands that Zelensky should give the order to release all civilians and to stop resisting

3. Humanitarian situation

From Statement of the Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response (May 4, 2022, 21:30)

In accordance with the decision of the leadership of the Russian Federation, since March 4, 2022, the Russian Armed Forces, in strict compliance with the norms of international law and for purely humane purposes, every day from 08:00AM to 08:00PM (Moscow time) without any restrictions open a humanitarian corridor in Mariupol direction to evacuate civilians, primarily women, children and elderly citizens in any direction they choose: both to the territory of Russia, the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics and to the areas under control of the Kiev authorities.

In addition, the Russian Armed Forces have been opening humanitarian corridors in the Donetsk, Lugansk, Crimean and Kharkov directions daily since 10:00AM (Moscow time). The Russian side is ready to deploy humanitarian corridors in any other directions as soon as possible and to ensure the safe evacuation of civilians.

Russian servicemen together with formations of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics strictly observe the ceasefire on all routes.

The Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, in cooperation with the authorized federal executive authorities, continues to record numerous facts of the inhumane attitude of the Kiev authorities towards civilians, as well as the use of social infrastructure facilities by Ukrainian armed formations for military purposes:

in Kramatorsk, on the territory of schools No. 1, 3 and vocational school No. 39, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine placed military equipment, heavy weapons and equipped an ammunition depot, while the evacuation of residents from nearby houses was not carried out;

in Kharkov, in close proximity to densely populated residential areas, on the territory of an experimental cement and coke chemical plants, the AFU units placed D-30 howitzers and MLRS. There are a large number of tanks with toxic technical liquids at these plants. If the tanks are destroyed, chemicals will be released into the atmosphere, followed by contamination of the air, terrain and water sources, which will lead to mass poisoning of people. The fighters, knowing that only civilians will become victims of their cynical actions, purposefully provoke the Russian Armed Forces to return fire in order to hold Russian servicemen responsible for possible victims among the local population.

In addition, numerous facts of illegal appropriation of humanitarian aid by officials of military administrations of cities for its subsequent resale to the local population were recorded in the Zaporozhye region on the territory controlled by the Kiev regime.

It is precisely because of such actions of the Kiev regime that international organizations are considering stopping the delivery of humanitarian goods, as the Romanian mission of the International Committee of the Red Cross in the Odessa region did earlier, where massive theft of humanitarian aid vital to civilians was also recorded.

All this, once again, demonstrates the true "face" of the Ukrainian authorities, openly expressing an inhumane attitude to the fate of the people of Ukraine and neglecting the norms of morality and international humanitarian law.

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles created by Kiev, over the past day, without the participation of the Ukrainian authorities, 10,617 people, including 1,421 children, were evacuated from dangerous areas of the Donetsk, Lugansk People's Republics and Ukraine to the territory of the Russian Federation. Since the start of the special military operation, a total of 1,114,318 people, including 199,348 children moved to Russia. The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 144,759 units of personal motor transport, including 1,786 over the past day.

In the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, more than 9.5 thousand temporary accommodation facilities continue to operate, which are fully equipped with all necessary property, they provide places for rest and hot meals. Individual work is carried out with arriving refugees and assistance is promptly provided in solving various pressing issues related to further placement, assistance in finding employment, providing children with places in kindergartens and educational institutions, as well as providing the required social benefits.

A significant part of the population forcibly held by radicals in Ukrainian cities is still looking for any opportunities for evacuation to Russia, as evidenced by numerous requests of citizens through various channels to official structures and public organizations of the Russian Federation. Over the past day, the hotline of the Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, federal executive authorities, subjects of the Russian Federation and various public organizations received 198 requests from Ukrainian citizens with appeals for evacuation to the territory of Russia, Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, as well as to the areas of Zaporozhye controlled by the Russian Armed Forces, Nikolaev, Kharkov and Kherson regions. In total, the database contains 2,754,562 such requests from 2,133 localities in Ukraine.

Since March 2nd , 2022, the Russian Federation has already delivered 17,567.6 tons of basic necessities, food, medicines and medical products to Ukraine, 967 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including five humanitarian actions in the Zaporozhye, Kharkov and Kherson regions over the past day, during which 195 were transferred to the civilian population tons of humanitarian aid.

On May 4, 2022, four humanitarian actions are held in Donetsk, Lugansk people's republics and the Kherson region, during which 169.4 tons of basic necessities and food are transferred to the population.

4. Situation on the battlefields

Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to shell the DPR and the LPR residential and social infrastructure areas May 3rd, 4th and 5th by using 122 mm artillery ammunition.

High-precision long-range air- and sea-based weapons destroyed 6 railway power substations near Podbortsi, Lvov, Volonets, Timkovo and Pyatikhatka railway stations, through which the Ukrainian troops in Donbass was supplied with arms and ammunition manufactured in the USA and European countries.

High-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces have destroyed: 1 Tochka-U tactical missile launcher near Novaya Dmitrovka, 3 S-300 anti-aircraft missile system locators near Sandjeika, Krysino and Volnyansk, as well as 1 ammunition depot and 9 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration near Novoalexandrovka.

Operational-tactical and army aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces have hit 40 military assets of Ukraine.

Among them: 1 pontoon crossing near Protopopovka, 4 ammunition and missile-artillery weapons depots, as well as 34 areas of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment concentration.

Missile troops have hit 2 command posts of AFU units, 1 battery of BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers, 1 battery of 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems, 1 battery of D-30 howitzers, and 4 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration.

Artillery units have hit 16 command posts, 2 fuel depots, as well as 476 strongholds of nationalist units, areas of manpower and military equipment concentration.

The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 310 nationalists and up to 53 Ukrainian ACVs.

Russian AAD has shot down 9 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Izyum, Topolnoe, Malaya Kamyshevakha, Russkie Tishki, Brazhkovka in Kharkov Region, Zelenyi Gai in Nikolaev Region and Novokrasnyanka in Lugansk People's Republic, including 1 Bayraktar-TB2 near Aleksandrovka in Kharkov Region.

In addition, 4 Smerch multiple-launch rockets have been shot down in the air near Velikaya Kamyshevakha.


In total, 146 aircraft and 112 helicopters, 706 unmanned aerial vehicles, 287 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,807 tanks and other ACVs, 321 MLRSs, 1,279 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,609 special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation

[https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12419834@egNews]


5. Terror attack foiled near Ukrainian border – Transnistria

An armed drone has been intercepted near a telecom center in Transnistria. A weaponized cargo drone was intercepted overnight near a large TV center located in the village of Mayak, the Interior Ministry of the republic of Transnistria said on May, 3rd.

In recent days, Transnistria, officially known as the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), located along a narrow strip of land between the Dniester River and Ukrainian border in the eastern part of Moldova, has endured a string of terrorist attacks involving the region’s critical civilian and military infrastructure. Apart from the attacks on the Mayak broadcasting center, Transnistria’s Ministry of State Security was targeted by three unknown assailants, who fired shoulder-mounted rocket launchers at the building, shattering its windows and damaging its façade. Several explosions also occurred at a military compound outside Transnistria’s capital city of Tiraspol.

Russian experts believe that this area can be converted into the fourth front with Ukraine, if anyone assumes that there are already three active ones: in Donbass, Northern and Southern Ukraine.

6. 'An act of genocide': a witness recalls the 2014 Odessa massacre

Here is just one question with the subsequent reply of a doctor from Odessa Vladimir Grubnik, Ph.D. in Medicine, who participated in the Odessa protests on May 2, 2014, and spent over four years in a Ukrainian prison for his political views.

Question: Many believe the tragedy of May 2, 2014, was the point of no return in the civil war. What do you think and why?

Answer: It wasn’t a tragedy, but an act of genocide. And it became the detonator of the civil war. It showed the true intentions of people with respect to the unfolding events. … And I think that war, of course, is monstrous, but there are things worse than war. For example, a massacre. May 2 showed that the alternative to war is massacre. Like in Odessa, where we were clearly shown what would happen if we did not put up armed resistance to the Ukrainian Nazis. A huge number of people in the southeastern regions of Ukraine, in the Donbass, and in Russia understood this.

Having seen what happened on May 2, they took up their backpacks and went to fight the Ukronazis to the death, to destroy them. They protected the population from slaughter. And on February 24, 2022, the process of protecting the population from slaughter simply moved into a new phase. Therefore, truth is on our side, justice is on our side. And there is no way to come to an agreement as long as the Ukrainian Nazis hold power. They do not consider us to be people. Therefore, I repeat: war is terrible, but we are in a situation where the alternative is even worse.”

[full interview is posted at: https://www.rt.com/russia/554946-tragedy-odessa-protests-ukraine/]

 


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 57. Inhuman treatment of civilians in Ukraine by AFU

May 7, 2022

1. Inhuman treatment of civilians in Ukraine by AFU

Russian Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine continues to accumulate facts of the inhumane treatment of civilians by Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). It has been reliably established that Ukrainian army units and nationalist battalions are setting up powerful fortifications in large enterprises, including the chemical industry, at the orders of their US and UK handlers.

For example, the militants have placed heavy weapons on the territory of the Azot company in Severodonetsk, Lugansk People's Republic, and are holding more than a 1,000 factory workers and local residents in underground facilities as "human shield". At the same time, the nationalists have been systematically firing MLRSs in Pervomaisk, Stakhanov and Kalinovo, thus provoking the Russian Armed Forces to retaliate in order to further accuse the Russian military of killing civilians and causing a man-made disaster in the republic. The neo-Nazis also booby-trapped tanks containing chemicals (ammonia, ammonium nitrate, nitric acid) for immediate detonation in case they were forced to abandon their positions.

The implementation of this cynical crime will lead to the chemical contamination of air, terrain and water sources. At the same time, there is a particular danger of highly toxic substances entering the Seversky Donets River, which is the main waterway and source of drinking water for eastern Ukraine and the Donbass republics.

The commission of similar inhuman provocations by militants of nationalist battalions, according to testimonies of captured AFU soldiers, is also planned at other facilities within the boundaries of the so-called "triangle of chemical industry" (Severodonetsk, Lisichansk and Rubezhnoe; total area - 338 sq km, population - about 300,000 people), where more than 30 chemical companies are concentrated, the largest being Ukrkhimenergo, Severodonetsk-based ORGHIM, Energohimmash, Zarya, LLC, Severodonetsk Chemical and Metallurgical Plant, Severodonetsk Novofert Liquid Chemical Fertiliser Plant, Yuzhny Chemical Plant, and Benzol Chemical Company.

In addition, according to reliable information, the Ukrainian Security Service is planning provocations using chemical weapons in the settlements of Vysokopolie, Ivanovka, Knyazevka and Topolnoe in Kherson region, as well as in Apostolovo in Dnepropetrovsk region by 24:00 on May 6, 2022 to further accuse the Russian Armed Forces. Moreover, while previously in preparation for such provocations the civilian population was withdrawn from the area of planned contamination, now, in order to maximise the resonance, no warning was given to the population.

Russia warned the "civilized West" as well as the United Nations, the International Committee of the Red Cross and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in advance that the above and other similar provocations about alleged "Russian atrocities" are soon to be widely spread by the Ukrainian authorities through the Western media and in various Internet resources.

On May 7, 2022 in Kharkiv Region, nationalists in Tsirkuny gathered local residents under the threat of physical violence and transported them to the southern outskirts of Borshchevaya, where the militants, shielding themselves with "human shield", were moving towards the frontline towards the Russian military units, provoking them to open fire on civilians. As a result of the spot fire, the Ukrainian nationalists were defeated: some of the personnel were eliminated and the rest scattered. However, no civilians were harmed.

Such actions by militants completely replicate Nazi tactics during the Great Patriotic War and once again demonstrate the inhumane attitude of the Kiev regime towards its own people and its complete disregard for all norms of morality and international humanitarian law.

2. Exodus of refugees

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles posed by Kiev, over the past 24 hours, without the involvement of the Ukrainian authorities, 17,419 people, including 2,449 children, have been evacuated from dangerous areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics and Ukraine to the Russian Federation. Since the beginning of the special military operation, a total of 1,147,374 people have been evacuated, including 203,799 children. The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 148,586 personal vehicles including 1,944 per day.

50 civilians with 11 children Some nationalists left Azovstal plant with a white flag on May 7th.

More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centres continue to operate in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and are fully equipped with recreational facilities and hot meals. The refugees are dealt with on an individual basis and are promptly assisted with various pressing issues relating to onward accommodation, employment assistance, places for children in kindergartens and educational institutions, and the provision of entitlements to social benefits.

A significant part of the population forcibly held by radicals in Ukrainian cities is still looking for any opportunities to evacuate to Russia, as evidenced by numerous appeals of citizens through various channels to the official structures of the Russian Federation. Over the past 24 hours, the hotline of the Interdepartmental Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, federal executive authorities, constituent entities of the Russian Federation and various NGOs received 169 requests from foreign and Ukrainian citizens to evacuate to Russia, the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, as well as to the Russian Armed Forces-controlled areas of Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, Kharkov and Kherson regions. In total there are 2,754,846 such appeals from 2,133 locations in Ukraine in the database.

3.  More than 18,000 tonnes of humanitarian aid have already been delivered to Ukraine

Russian federal executive authorities, together with the subjects of the Russian Federation, various public organizations, patriotic movements, continue to accumulate humanitarian aid. The greatest contributors to the relief effort were:

Ministry of the Russian Federation for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters, Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media of the Russian Federation, Federal Service for State Registration, Cadastre and Cartography, Federal Maritime and River Transport Agency, Ministry of Culture of the Russian Federation, Federal Agency for Nationalities, Federal Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States, Compatriots Living Abroad and International Humanitarian Cooperation;

Bashkortostan, Buryatia, Dagestan, Crimea, Tatarstan and Chechen republics, Altai and Krasnodar territories, Arkhangelsk, Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Leningrad, Moscow, Novosibirsk, Rostov, Tula regions and Moscow city;

Among political parties and non-profit organisations: United Russia, the People's Front All-Russian Public Movement, the All-Russian Public Organisation of Veterans "Battle Brotherhood", the Russian Humanitarian Mission, the Russian Union of Russian Women, the Almaz-Antey Military Defence Concern, and interregional public organisation Federation of Military Tactical Games.

More than 23,000 tonnes of basic necessities and food kits, including baby food and life-saving medicines, have been prepared at collection points.

Since March 2nd, 18,030.6 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 977 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 6 actions in Zaparozhye and Kharkov regions, as well as in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, during which 293.6 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

On May 6th, 4 humanitarian actions have been planned and are currently being carried out in Kherson region, in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, during which 405 tons of basic necessities, medicine and food will be distributed.

4.  The situation at the Black Sea area

75 foreign vessels from 17 countries remain blocked in seven Ukrainian ports (Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa, Yuzhniy and Mariupol). The threat of shelling and high sea-mine danger created by official Kiev in its internal waters and territorial sea prevents foreign vessels from safely leaving the ports and reaching the open sea.

In confirmation of this, the Russian Federation is opening daily from 08:00 to 19:00 (Moscow time) a humanitarian corridor, which is a safe lane south-west of Ukraine's territorial sea, 80 nautical miles long and 3 nautical miles wide.

Detailed information in English and Russian on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridor is broadcast daily every 15 minutes on VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels in English and Russian.

At the same time, the Kiev authorities continue to avoid engaging with representatives of states and ship-owning companies to resolve the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area.

The danger to navigation from Ukrainian mines drifting off their anchors along the coasts of Black Sea states remains.

The Russian Federation is taking a full range of comprehensive measures to ensure the safety of civilian navigation in the waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

5. Ambassador Antonov’s remarks in Newsweek in May, 2022

Russia's envoy to the United States has told Newsweek that leaders of the U.S.-led NATO military alliance do not grasp the true gravity of a potential nuclear conflict erupting, as a tense war of words among powers looms over the ongoing fighting in Ukraine.

As officials and other influential figures of the U.S. and allied nations accuse the Kremlin of summoning the specter of nuclear war over NATO's support for Ukraine against Russia's devastating invasion, Moscow's ambassador in Washington, Anatoly Antonov, disparaged what he called "a flurry of blatant misrepresentation of Russian officials' statements on our country's nuclear policy."

In fact, he said it was those in the Western bloc that have proven irresponsible in their handling of what has been described as one of the most dangerous moments since the Cuban Missile Crisis six decades ago.

"The current generation of NATO politicians clearly does not take the nuclear threat seriously," Antonov told Newsweek.

Those who feel Russia was fueling the hysteria include top U.S. military leaders, including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair General Mark A. Milley, who accused Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov of "nuclear saber-rattling" after an interview last month in which Moscow's top diplomat said that "the danger is serious, real, and we must not underestimate it."

And while U.S. officials cast Russia as the aggressor in escalating nuclear tensions, Antonov called these accusations "baseless," and "part of a propaganda campaign launched against Russia in response to the steps taken to neutralize threats to our national security emanating from the Ukrainian territory."

He then outlined the "conditions under which the use of nuclear weapons is possible" as per Russia's official doctrine, which he said states that such weapons of mass destruction "can be used in response to the use of WMD against Russia and its allies, or in the event of aggression against our country, when the very existence of the state is jeopardized."

But Antonov believes his Western colleagues misread the weight of the nuclear risk, and that's why Russian officials "have never stopped our efforts to reach agreements that will guarantee that a catastrophic confrontation will not be unleashed."

"It is our country that in recent years has persistently proposed to American colleagues to affirm that there can be no winners in a nuclear war, thus it should never happen," Antonov said.

He noted the inclusion of this "no winners" principle in the joint Russia-U.S. statement adopted after the June 2021 summit held between President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and again among the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council in January of this year.

Even before the outbreak of Russia's war in Ukraine on February 24, however, strategic stability between the two nations that hold roughly 90% of the world's nuclear arsenal had eroded. Now, the conflict leaves the future of one of the last bastions of diplomacy between Moscow and Washington even more uncertain.

Antonov called New START "a universally recognized gold standard in the sphere of maintaining strategic stability and transparency between the major nuclear powers," and said that "Russia has repeatedly drawn the attention of the United States that it is important to continue the joint work on an agreement that could replace New START and accommodate new realities of international security and development of military technologies."

"Regrettably, Washington has unilaterally 'frozen' the bilateral strategic stability dialogue that was launched at the Geneva summit, thus jeopardizing the prospects of keeping the foundation of arms control in place," he added. "Russia is ready to resume the consultations as soon as the United States is ready."

The latest report submitted to Congress last month by the State Department assessed that both sides remained in compliance with New START.

The report also said that "the United States has made clear its concerns about Russia's arsenal of theater-range nuclear weapons," which commonly refers to weapons armed with low-yield, tactical warheads, of which the U.S. Intelligence Community assesses Russia possesses between 1,000-2,000, a figure that is "projected to grow."

The U.S. has also developed low-yield warheads for use on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and Pentagon officials have called for even more applications. U.S. Strategic Command chief Admiral Charles A. Richard told lawmakers in a letter last month that "a non-ballistic, low-yield, non-treaty accountable system that is available without visible generation would be valuable."

Neither Russia nor the U.S. has made any official changes to their respective nuclear policies since the war in Ukraine began more than two months ago. But rhetoric touched upon the potential for nuclear escalation in the opening days of the conflict, especially after Putin announced on February 27 that his nuclear forces were being placed "on a special mode of combat duty." Antonov said Western nations "misinterpreted the decision." But Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu "publicly explained that it was only about the work shifts of strategic forces commands which began to perform combat duties with reinforced personnel.

The Russian diplomat said it was about responding to NATO's own nuclear moves on the continent. "This means that Russia has increased its vigilance against the backdrop of extremely confrontational statements by Western countries," Antonov said, "including NATO member states that possess nuclear weapons."

Among the 30-state NATO alliance, three nations — France, the United Kingdom and the U.S. — possess nuclear weapons. The U.S. has also, however, deployed nuclear weapons to a number of other allied states including Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Turkey.

This nuclear sharing policy, through which such weapons remain solely under U.S. control, has prompted concerns from Russia that Ukraine's NATO aspirations could also bring nuclear weapons to the neighboring former Soviet republic seeking closer ties to the West.

As such, Antonov argued that "it is not us who are the source of unhealthy speculations about unleashing a nuclear war."

"They were initiated by the Kiev regime, which made no secret of its intentions to acquire military nuclear capabilities," Antonov said. "In the same vein — statements made by Polish leaders about their readiness to deploy American nuclear weapons on their territory. And some hotheads on Capitol Hill even allege to call to use nuclear weapons against Russia."

[Russia Ambassador to U.S. Says NATO Not Taking Nuclear War Threat Seriously. By Tom O'Conner//May 5th, 2022//2:48 PM EDT//

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ambassador-us-says-nato-not-taking-nuclear-w ar-threat-seriously-1703968]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-ambassador-to-us-says-nato-not-taking-nuclear-war-threat-seriously/ar-AAWXLkL?li=BBnbfcL

6. Situation on the battlefield

AFU continued to shell the DPR and the LPR with heavy weapons. One person has been killed, 5 wounded.

Russian troops disrupted the AFU to retain Zmeiniy island in the Black Sea already captured by the Russian troops.

High-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Air Force have hit 5 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 1 ammunition depot near Bakhmut, Donetsk People's Republic.

Operational-tactical and army aviation have hit 18 military assets of Ukraine. Among them: 2 command posts near Skovorodnikovo in Kharkov Region, 5 areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment, 3 ammunition and fuel depots near Dachnoe in Odessa Region.

A large concentration of military equipment from the USA and European countries has been destroyed near the Bogodukhov railway station in Kharkov Region.

The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 280 nationalists and up to 48 armoured and motor vehicles.

Missile troops and artillery have hit 44 command posts and 196 strongholds of Ukrainian troops, areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration during the night. Russian air defence means overnight have shot down 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Berezovka in Nikolaev Region, Signalnoe, Luganskoe, Krasnogorovka, Yasinovatoe and Zugres in Donetsk People's Republic, Olgino in Kherson Region, Cherneshchina in Kharkov Region.

3 Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missiles and 9 Smerch multiple-launch rockets nave been also intercepted over Izyum city, Kharkov Region.


In total, 152 aircraft and 112 helicopters, 762 unmanned aerial vehicles, 295 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,895 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 333 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,364 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,716 special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.

 


7.  Foreign mercenaries in Ukraine: “frustration and terrible disappointment”

Canadian sniper ‘terribly disappointed’ with military reality in Ukraine. A Canadian ex-soldier known as ‘Wali’ has alleged chaos, looting and incompetence in the Ukrainian military.

Once lauded by the international media, a Canadian sniper known as ‘Wali’ has “terrible disappointment.” He claimed there was inadequate weaponry, poor training and heavy losses, as well as profiteering and desertion in the ranks.

When ‘Wali’ answered Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s call in March and volunteered to fight for Ukraine, he was given lavish coverage by the Western media. A former Canadian soldier who had also volunteered to fight with Kurdish militants in Iraq, Wali was described by Spanish media as “the best sniper in the world.”

However, he said that reality left him disillusioned. Back home in Quebec, Wali told La Presse on Friday that his Ukrainian commanders initially “didn’t know what to do” with foreign fighters like himself. Tired of waiting for an opportunity to fight, he joined the ‘Norman Brigade,’ a private unit led by another former soldier from Quebec.

[more to read: https://www.rt.com/news/555128-canadian-sniper-wali-ukraine/ ]

RT’s Roman Kosarev spoke to Vjekoslav Prebek, a Croatian national who fought in the ranks of the Ukrainian military. Prebek says he was a serviceman in a Ukrainian marine brigade that was holed up in the city of Mariupol. He claims to have been taken prisoner during an attempt to flee the besieged city alongside a handful of other fighters.

“We were leaving Mariupol and we were walking on foot for 260 kilometers hiding, walking only during night, avoiding all contact possible,” he said. The plan flopped when the group ran into an artillery unit and surrendered to it.

Prebek’s unit has had multiple foreigners in its ranks, including three British nationals. Several other foreigners went AWOL from the brigade shortly after the ongoing conflict broke out late in February.

He confessed: “I heard also that they [Azov] are very fascistic and Nazi. I heard also about terrible things they did to citizens, captured them even probably shooting at us at some time. I’ve heard there are a lot of criminals, drug users [among them]. I’ve not witnessed anything myself, but I’ve been shown videos that are terrible of what they are doing. Huge atrocities”.

[more to read: https://www.rt.com/russia/555083-ukraine-captured-croatian-fighter/ ]

8. Russia: probes launched into 75 foreign ‘mercenaries’ in Ukraine

Russia’s Investigative Committee has launched at least 75 criminal probes into foreign “mercenaries” fighting against Russian forces in Ukraine, the committee’s chairman, Alexander Bastrykin, has told RT. He claimed that among the individuals are British, American, Norwegian, Canadian, and Georgian nationals.

On the topic of crimes allegedly committed by Ukrainian forces in the two breakaway Donbass republics, Bastrykin said that since 2014, his committee has initiated around 800 criminal investigations into current and former members of Ukraine’s political leadership, as well as the top brass of some of the country’s security services and “radical nationalist organizations.”

He revealed that among the suspects in these cases are Ukraine’s former interior minister, Arsen Avakov, as well as the former governor of Dnepropetrovsk Region, Igor Kolomoisky.

According to Bastrykin, the vast majority of the crimes investigated by the Russian authorities regard the shelling of the civilian population with artillery, ballistic missiles, mortars, and firearms, noting that these actions are classified as inhumane treatment of civilians, the use of banned weapons and methods in an armed conflict, and even as genocide. He said that 115 individuals have been identified in connection with these cases, adding that the number is likely to increase over time as the committee continues to investigate.

Bastrykin claimed that since the start of Russia’s military operation on February 24, Ukrainian forces have committed similar crimes, predominantly targeting the Russian-speaking population of the Donbass who “opposed Kiev’s nationalist policies.”

The head of Russia’s Investigative Committee said it has recognized as many as 59,000 people as victims, and is helping them file lawsuits to claim compensation from the Ukrainian government.

 


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

 

Report # 58. Putin: Russia's military operation in Ukraine is 'preemptive'

May, 9th, 2022

1. Launching this operation in Ukraine was “the only right decision,” Russian President said at the annual Victory Day parade in Moscow, May 9th.

He said that “… it is our duty to preserve the memory of those who defeated Nazism and entrusted us with being vigilant and doing everything to thwart the horror of another global war. Therefore, despite all controversies in international relations, Russia has always advocated the establishment of an equal and indivisible security system which is critically needed for the entire international community. Last December we proposed signing a treaty on security guarantees. Russia urged the West to hold an honest dialogue in search for meaningful and compromising solutions, and to take account of each other’s interests. All in vain. NATO countries did not want to heed us, which means they had totally different plans. And we saw it.”

Russia’s military operation in Ukraine was a preemptive move against future aggression, President Vladimir Putin has outlined during his address.

The head of state not only praised the achievement of the Soviet people during World War II, but also addressed the Kremlin's reasons for the ongoing conflict between Moscow and Kiev. Russia had to act because a large-scale offensive against the republics in the eastern Donbass region was being planned, he claimed.

Returning to the military operation in Ukraine, the president illustrated that “the self-defense forces of the Donbass Republics together with the Russian military are fighting on their land… for the Motherland, for its future, to make sure that no one forgets the lessons of World War II, so that there would be no place in the world for butchers, punishers, and Nazis.”

Announcing the “special military operation” on February 24, Putin said that Moscow should not repeat the mistakes of the Soviet leadership of 1940-1941. Back then, he explained, the USSR tried not to provoke Nazi Germany by “refraining or postponing the most urgent and obvious preparations it had to make to defend itself from an imminent attack.” As a result, the president continued, the moment was lost and the country was not prepared to counter the invasion.

The attempt to appease the aggressor ahead of the Great Patriotic War proved to be a mistake which came at a high cost for our people…We will not make this mistake the second time. We have no right to do so,” Putin said.

In his words, another punitive operation in Donbass, an invasion of Russian historic lands, including Crimea, was openly in the making. Kiev declared that it could attain nuclear weapons. The NATO bloc launched an active military build-up on the territories adjacent to Russian land. “Thus, he continued, an absolutely unacceptable threat to Russia was steadily being created right on its borders. There was every indication that a clash with neo-Nazis and Banderites backed by the United States and their minions was unavoidable.

He repeated that Russia saw the military infrastructure being built up, hundreds of foreign advisors starting work, and regular supplies of cutting-edge weaponry being delivered from NATO countries. The threat grew every day.

Russia launched a pre-emptive strike at the aggression of Ukraine. It was a forced, timely and the only correct decision. A decision by a sovereign, strong and independent country.

The United States began claiming their exceptionalism, particularly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, thus denigrating not just the entire world but also their satellites, who have to pretend not to see anything, and to obediently put up with it. Putin emphasized that Russia is a different country, it has a different character, it will never give up its love for its Motherland, its faith and traditional values, its ancestors’ customs and respect for all peoples and cultures.

Meanwhile, the West seems to be set to cancel these millennia-old values. Such moral degradation underlies the cynical falsifications of World War II history, escalating Russophobia, praising traitors, mocking their victims’ memory and crossing out the courage of those who won the Victory through suffering. “We saw the military infrastructure unfolding [in Ukraine]; hundreds of foreign advisers starting their work; there were regular deliveries of the most modern weapons from NATO countries. The danger grew every day,” the president explained. “Russia gave a preemptive rebuff to aggression – this was a forced, timely and the only right decision by a sovereign, strong and independent country,” he added, referring to the launch of the military operation.

He ended his address with the words: “Those who crushed Nazism during the Great Patriotic War showed us an example of heroism for all ages. This is the generation of victors, and we will always look up to them”.

[full text is at: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366}

2. Humanitarian situation in Ukraine

From the Statement of the Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine (May 8, 2022 at 21:00)

The Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, in co-operation with the authorised federal executive authorities and law enforcement agencies, continues to thoroughly document numerous facts of the Kiev regime's inhumane attitude towards its own people and the use of civilian infrastructure for military purposes:

a)  in Kramatorsk, Donetsk People's Republic, AFU units are stationed and firing positions are equipped in school No 20 and kindergarten No 87. At the same time, civilians from nearby houses are forcibly detained in the basements and all approaches to the buildings are mined;

b) in Kharkov, militants of nationalist battalions have equipped a stronghold and ammunition depot in the building of the children's regional infectious diseases hospital No 22, with artillery mounts placed in the adjacent territory. The hospital staff and all civilians, including critically ill children, were forced to leave the medical facility under threat of physical violence;

c) in Slavyansk, Donetsk People's Republic, neo-Nazi Ukrainian armed formations have mined a railway bridge of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk branch and a road bridge across Sukhoy Torets river, which they plan to blow up, accusing allegedly "advancing units of Russian troops" of doing this;

d) in Zaporozhye, the administration, hiding the true purpose of using citizens as "human shield", banned the evacuation of civilians under the pretext of "security". Any attempts by residents to leave the city in private cars and on foot are harshly suppressed by militants of the territorial defence battalions at checkpoints. Civilians who show the slightest resistance are physically abused, vehicles are seized and people are sent back on foot.

The number of daily violations by the Kiev regime of the norms and principles of international humanitarian law and the Geneva Conventions in terms of the prohibition of placing heavy weapons in residential areas, using civilians as human shield and civilian infrastructure for military purposes, indicates the absolutely conscious use of inhumane battle tactics by Ukrainian neo-Nazis.

Moscow recalled that because of the same radical approaches of Nazi Germany towards civilians, the leadership of the world community developed and documented most of the norms and principles of international humanitarian law after the end of World War II, which are still in force today.

Russia urged the countries of the so-called collective West, which unconditionally support the Kiev regime, to stop "turning a blind eye" to these flagrant facts and condemn the war crimes of the Kiev authorities against their own people.

In addition, the Odessa regional administration has banned satellite TV providers broadcasting Russian and Moldovan TV channels in order to restrict the information space and deny people access to an alternative view of the situation around the special military operation. Residents of flats and private households are forced to dismantle existing satellite equipment, and anyone who fails to do so is accused of being pro-Russian without evidence, and their computers, tablets and smartphones are confiscated. Citizens are taken to an unknown destination, and their fate is not known to their relatives.

Such criminal actions by the Kiev authorities are aimed at concealing from the citizens of Ukraine the current catastrophic situation in the country, caused by the destructive policy of official Kiev, and show a complete indifference to the fate of millions of Ukrainians.

3. Humanitarian aid delivery

Federal executive authorities, together with the subjects of the Russian Federation, various public organizations, patriotic movements, continue to accumulate humanitarian aid.

More than 23,000 tonnes of basic necessities and food kits, including baby food and life-saving medicines, have been prepared at collection points.

In the liberated territories, the Russian Armed Forces and military units of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics are creating all the necessary conditions for a peaceful and safe life, providing the population with comprehensive assistance, including unimpeded access to any humanitarian aid.

Since March 2nd, 18,530.6 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 962 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 2 actions in Kharkov and Kherson regions, as well as in Donetsk People's Republic, during which 983 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

On May 8th, 5 humanitarian actions have been planned and are currently being carried out in Kherson region, in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, during which 233 tons of basic necessities, medicine and food will be distributed.

4. Resolution of the refugees’ issue

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles posed by Kiev, over the past 24 hours, without the involvement of the Ukrainian authorities, 19,834 people, including 970 children, have been evacuated from dangerous areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics and Ukraine to the Russian Federation. Since the beginning of the special military operation, a total of 1,185,971 people have been evacuated, including 206,610 children. The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 152,989 personal vehicles including 2,018 per day.

More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centres continue to operate in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and are fully equipped with recreational facilities and hot meals. The refugees are dealt with on an individual basis and are promptly assisted with various pressing issues relating to onward accommodation, employment assistance, places for children in kindergartens and educational institutions, and the provision of entitlements to social benefits.

Over the past day, Russian authorities received 149 appeals from Ukrainian citizens with requests to evacuate to Russia, the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics and to areas controlled by the Russian armed forces in Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, Kharkov and Kherson regions, a total of 2,755,112 such appeals in the database from 2,135 settlements.

Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Irina Vereschuk announced on April 7th  that all of the women, children and elderly civilians trapped in the Azovstal complex in Mariupol have been evacuated. Russian forces had paused their assault on the plant to allow the escape of civilians, some of whom say they were held hostage there by militants.

Russia accused the Ukrainian soldiers and neo-Nazi militias occupying the plant of holding civilians there to barter for supplies. In video footage posted and later deleted by German magazine Der Spiegel, an evacuee said that her family had been kept “in a bunker” under Azovstal for two months, and were forbidden by the Azov militants from using the Russian-established humanitarian corridors.

5. Situation at the Black Sea area

75 foreign vessels from 17 countries remain blocked in 7 Ukrainian ports (Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa, Yuzhniy and Mariupol). The threat of shelling and high mine danger created by official Kiev in its internal waters and territorial sea prevents vessels from safely leaving the ports and reaching the open sea.

In confirmation of this, the Russian Federation is opening daily from 08:00 to 19:00 (Moscow time) a humanitarian corridor, which is a safe lane south-west of Ukraine's territorial sea, 80 nautical miles long and 3 nautical miles wide.

Detailed information in English and Russian on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridor is broadcast daily every 15 minutes on VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels in English and Russian.

At the same time, the Kiev authorities continue to avoid engaging with representatives of states and ship-owning companies to resolve the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area.

The danger to navigation from Ukrainian mines drifting off their anchors along the coasts of Black Sea states remains.

The Russian Federation is taking a full range of comprehensive measures to ensure the safety of civilian navigation in the waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

6. Situation on the battlefield

Ukraine’s forces entrenched at the Azovstal steel plant have no plans to surrender, fighters from the neo-Nazi Azov regiment told journalists on April 8th.

Azovstal, a gargantuan Soviet-built factory complex spread over 11 square kilometers, remains the last pocket of resistance in Mariupol. The Russian military repeatedly offered those entrenched at the plant a chance to surrender, which has so far been rejected.

Russian Aerospace Forces have destroyed two command posts and a Ukrainian battery of Grad multiple rocket launchers near Popasnaya, 18 manpower and military equipment concentration areas near Lisichansk, a counterbattery radio detection station manufactured in the USA near Zolotoye. Oniks high-precision missiles launched by Bastion coastal missile system near Artsiz, Odessa region, have destroyed Ukrainian helicopters at a bounce platform.

Operational-tactical and army aviation have neutralised 52 manpower and military equipment concentration areas, as well as an ammunition depot near Glukhov.

Missile troops and artillery units have neutralised eight command posts, 26 artillery units at their firing positions, as well as 211 manpower and military equipment concentration areas. The attacks have resulted in the elimination of up to 350 nationalists and the neutralisation of 56 units of military equipment. In addition, four Ukrainian Smerch multiple rocket launchers and one launching ramp of S-300 air defence system near Bogodukhov.

Russian air defence means have shot down three aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force: two MiG-29 near Iverskoye and Novodonetskoye, Donetsk People's Republic, and one Su-25 near Pogonovka, Kharkov region overnight. Three Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, including two Bayraktar-TB2, have been hit over Zmeimyi Island.

In addition, 12 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down over Balakleya, Shiykovka, Goptovka, Tsupovka, Maliye and Bolshiye Prokhody (Kharkov region), Kamenka (Cherkassy region), Brianka and Adveyevka (Donetsk People's Republic), Pavlovka (Lugansk People's Republic). Three projectiles of Smerch multiple rocket launcher have been intercepted near Izyum and Snezhkovka.


In total, 160 aircraft and 118 helicopters, 782 unmanned aerial vehicles, 299 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,949 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 342 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,423 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,769 special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation


 


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 59. The USA studied the possibility of forming controlled epidemics abroad at its secret biolabs in Ukraine

May 11th, 2022

1. New information is disclosed about the U.S. biolabs in Ukraine

From the briefing on the results of the analysis of documents related to the military biological activities of the United States on the territory of Ukraine (released on  May 11, 2022 at 16:30).

The Russian Defence Ministry continues to study materials on the implementation of military biological programs of the United States and its NATO allies on the territory of Ukraine.

Russia has already mentioned Robert Pope, director of the Cooperative Threat Reduction Programme and author of the idea of the Central Depository of Highly Dangerous Microorganisms in Kiev.

In his statement of April 10, 2022, Pope said that "...there is no reason to claim that research related to the development of biological weapons is taking place in Ukraine...". He previously claimed that "...the Americans did not find biological weapons when they first started working with Ukraine, and they still haven't. In addition, Ukraine lacks the infrastructure to develop and produce biological weapons...".

The term "biological weapons" includes biological formulations that contain pathogenic micro-organisms and toxins, as well as the means of delivery and use of said formulations.

While the priority for Ukrainian healthcare is socially significant diseases such as HIV, poliomyelitis, measles and hepatitis, U.S. customers are interested in a completely different nomenclature: cholera, tularemia, plague and hantaviruses.

As a result of the special military operation on the territory of Ukraine, facts of work with the specified pathogens, which are potential agents of biological weapons, have been revealed. At the same time, it was noted that Ukraine had sent a request to the manufacturing company regarding the possibility of equipping the Bayraktar drones with aerosol equipment.

In addition, on March 9 three unmanned aerial vehicles equipped with 30-litre containers and equipment for spraying formulations were detected by Russian reconnaissance units in Kherson region. At the end of April, 10 more were found near Kakhovka.

All this information calls into question the statements made by the American experts.

Russia has previously provided a scheme for U.S. coordination of biological laboratories and research institutes in Ukraine. Its preliminary analysis suggests that Ukraine is essentially a testing ground for the development of biological weapons components and the testing of new samples of pharmaceuticals.

The Russian Ministry of Defence was able to clarify the said scheme.

It should be noted that the ideologues of U.S. military-biological activities in Ukraine are the leaders of the Democratic Party.

Thus, through the U.S. executive branch, a legislative framework for funding military biomedical research directly from the federal budget was formed. Funds were raised under state guarantees from NGOs controlled by the Democratic Party leadership, including the investment funds of the Clintons, Rockefellers, Soros and Biden.

The scheme involves major pharmaceutical companies, including Pfizer, Moderna, Merck and the U.S. military-affiliated company Gilead. U.S. experts are working to test new medicines that circumvent international safety standards. As a result, Western companies are seriously reducing the cost of research programmes and gaining a significant competitive advantage.

The involvement of controlled nongovernmental and biotechnological organisations, and the increase in their revenues, allows the leaders of the Democratic Party to generate additional campaign finance and hide its distribution.

In addition to U.S. pharmaceutical companies and Pentagon contractors, Ukrainian state agencies are involved in military bioweapons activities, whose main tasks are to conceal illegal activities, conduct field and clinical trials and provide the necessary biomaterial.

Thus, the U.S. Department of Defence, using a virtually internationally uncontrolled test site and the high-tech facilities of multinational companies, has greatly expanded its research capabilities, not only in the field of biological weapons, but also in gaining knowledge about antibiotic resistance and the antibodies to specific diseases in populations in specific regions.

It should be noted that not only the USA, but also a number of its NATO allies are implementing their military-biological projects in Ukraine.

The German government has decided to launch a national biosafety programme independent of Washington, D.C., starting in 2013. Twelve countries, including Ukraine, are involved in the Programme.

On the German side, the programme involves the Institute for Armed Forces Microbiology (Munich), the Robert Koch Institute (Berlin), the Loeffler Institute (Greifswald) and the Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine (Hamburg).

New documents reveal that between 2016 and 2019 alone, three and a half thousand blood serum samples of citizens living in 25 regions of Ukraine were taken by military epidemiologists from the Bundeswehr Microbiology Institute.

The involvement of institutions subordinate to the Bundeswehr confirms the military orientation of biological research carried out in Ukrainian laboratories and raises questions about the goals pursued by the German armed forces in collecting biomaterials of Ukrainian citizens.

The documents obtained also show the involvement of Poland in Ukrainian biolaboratories. The participation of the Polish Institute of Veterinary Medicine in research aimed at assessing the epidemiological threats and spread of the rabies virus in Ukraine has been confirmed. Characteristically, the research in question was carried out jointly with the US-based Battelle Institute, a key contractor for the Pentagon.

In addition, Polish funding for the Lvov Medical University, which includes a member of U.S. military biology projects, the Institute of Epidemiology and Hygiene, has been documented. The organisation has been running a retraining programme for specialists with experience of working with dual-use materials and technologies since 2002.

The special military operation by Russian troops succeeded in obtaining additional information about bio-incidents in Ukraine.

For example, materials indicating the intentional use of a multidrug-resistant tuberculosis pathogen in 2020 to infect the population of the Slavyanoserbsky district of the LPR were examined.

The flyers, made in the form of counterfeit currency notes, were infected with the tuberculosis agent and distributed to minors in Stepovoe village. The organisers of this crime took into account the behaviour of children, who have a habit of "putting everything in their mouths" and taking food with unwashed hands.

The results of bacteriological studies have confirmed the resistance of the isolated bacteria to first- and second-line anti-TB drugs, meaning that the disease caused by them is much more difficult to treat and the cost of treatment is much higher.

According to the conclusion of the Lugansk Republican Sanitary and Epidemiological Station, "...the contamination of the notes was most likely carried out artificially, as the material contains extremely dangerous strains of the pathogen in concentrations capable of ensuring infection and development of the tuberculosis process...".

In his conclusion, the chief doctor of the Lugansk Republican TB Dispensary also notes that "...there are all signs of deliberate, man-made contamination of the flyers with highly pathogenic biomaterial...".

Russia previously reported on trials of potentially dangerous biological drugs on one of the least protected categories of people - patients of the Kharkov Regional Clinical Psychiatric Hospital No 3.

Moscow received new information revealing details of the Pentagon's inhuman experiments on Ukrainian citizens in Psychiatric Hospital No 1 (Streleche village, Kharkov Region). The main category of subjects was a group of male patients aged 40-60 years with a high stage of physical exhaustion.

In order to conceal their U.S. affiliation, the biological research experts travelled via third countries. Here is a photograph of Florida native Linda Oporto, who was directly involved in these works.

In January 2022, the foreign nationals conducting the experiments were evacuated in an emergency and the equipment and drugs they were using were taken to western Ukraine.

Russian Defence Ministry specialists have carried out investigation directly in two biolaboratories in Mariupol.

Evidence of emergency destruction of documents confirming work with the US military establishment was obtained. A preliminary analysis of extant documentation indicates the use of Mariupol as a regional centre for cholera pathogen collection and certification. The selected strains were sent to the Public Health Centre in Kiev, which is responsible for the onward shipment of biomaterials to the United States. These activities have been carried out since 2014, as evidenced by the transfer of strains.

An act of destruction of the pathogen collection dated February 25, 2022, according to which cholera, tularemia and anthrax pathogens were handled there, was found in the sanitary and epidemiological laboratory.

Part of the collection of the veterinary laboratory was not destroyed in a hurry. In order to ensure safety and secure storage, 124 strains were exported by Russian specialists and their study was organised.

The presence in the collection of pathogens that are uncharacteristic of veterinary medicine, such as typhoid, paratyphoid fever and gas gangrene, is a cause for concern. This could indicate the laboratory's misuse and involvement in a military biological programme.

Russia will continue to examine the full volume of material received from the Mariupol biolaboratories and will inform about the results.

The Russian Ministry of Defence has information that provocations are being prepared to accuse the Russian Armed Forces of using weapons of mass destruction, followed by a "Syrian scenario" investigation to fabricate the necessary evidence and assign blame.

The high likelihood of such provocations is confirmed by requests from the Kiev administration for personal skin and respiratory protection equipment that provides protection against toxic chemicals and biological contaminating agents. The supply to Ukraine of organophosphorus poisoning antidotes raises concerns. In 2022 alone, more than 220,000 ampoules of atropine, as well as preparations for special treatment and disinfection, were delivered from the USA at the request of the Ukrainian Ministry of Health.

Thus, the information obtained confirms that the United States is implementing an offensive military-biological programme in Ukraine to study the possibility of forming controlled epidemics in specific territories.

The special military operation of the Russian Armed Forces has crossed the U.S. military-biological expansion in Ukraine and stopped criminal experiments on civilians.

2. Humanitarian situation

From the Statement of the Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine dated May 10th.

The Russian Federation's Joint Interdepartmental Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response, in co-operation with the competent federal executive authorities and law enforcement agencies, continues to record in detail the numerous facts of the inhumane treatment of the civilian population by the authorities in Kiev, as well as the flagrantly brutal provocations against their own people.

According to reliable information, the Kiev regime has carried out another bloody action in Kharkov Region based on the Bucha scenario. 6 civilian vehicles with white flags mounted on them were shot at by AFU soldiers on a stretch of road between Staryi and Novyi Saltov. The photo and video footage of this heinous crime was made by specialists from the AFU's Centre for Information and Psychological Operations.

In addition, from the area of private houses in Belaya Krinitsa, Kherson region, the Ukrainian armed forces' artillery struck several positions of the Russian Armed Forces in order to provoke retaliatory fire on residential buildings with civilians, whom the territorial defence fighters are not letting out of the blockaded settlement by holding them as a "human shield". Meanwhile, Norwegian media representatives were present in Belaya Krinitsa for photo and video recording of allegedly indiscriminate Russian strikes against civilians.

Russia warns in advance that these and other materials fabricated by the Kiev regime about alleged "Russian atrocities" are soon to be widely spread through the Western and Ukrainian media, as well as online resources.

Moscow stresses once again that during the special military operation, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation treat the civilian population extremely humanely and do not strike at civilian infrastructure facilities, unlike the armed formations of Ukraine, which everywhere use hospitals, residential buildings, churches, kindergartens and health camps, schools and other civilian facilities to shelter combat units and deploy weapons:

a) in Mogilev-Podolski, Vinnitsa region, nationalists and foreign mercenaries have equipped a stronghold in a school building (23 Poltavska Street), as well as warehouses with military equipment and weapons, and forcibly detain civilians from nearby houses in the basement;

b) Lisichansk, Lugansk People's Republic, AFU soldiers forced women, children and elderly people out of a bomb shelter located in school No 5 and equipped an ammunition depot there;

c) in Slobozhanskoe, Kharkov Region, nationalists have equipped a stronghold in the building of Lyceum No. 1, tanks and armoured personnel carriers have been placed in the surrounding area and the approaches to the lyceum have been mined, but the local population is deliberately not informed about this.

These facts demonstrate that the current Ukrainian authorities, who are completely confident of their impunity for war crimes committed against their own citizens, cynically ignore the generally accepted principles of humane treatment of civilians enshrined in international humanitarian law and the Geneva Conventions, and that the lives of civilians do not matter at all to Kiev.

At the same time, the United Nations, OSCE, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other international human rights organizations continue to overlook the numerous war crimes committed by Ukrainian military units against residents of the Donbass republics and Ukrainian citizens in Kiev-controlled territories, with the full approval of Western handlers led by the USA.

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles posed by Kiev, over the past 24 hours, without the involvement of the Ukrainian authorities, 8,787 people, including 1,106 children, have been evacuated from dangerous areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics and Ukraine to the Russian Federation. Since the beginning of the special military operation, a total of 1,208,225 people have been evacuated, including 210,224 children.

The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 156,651 personal vehicles including 1,887 per day.

More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centres continue to operate in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and are fully equipped with recreational facilities and hot meals.

The refugees are dealt with on an individual basis and are promptly assisted with various pressing issues relating to onward accommodation, employment assistance, places for children in kindergartens and educational institutions, and the provision of entitlements to social benefits.

A significant part of the population forcibly detained by radicals in Ukrainian cities continues to seek any opportunity to evacuate to Russia, the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, as well as to areas liberated by the Russian Armed Forces in Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, Kharkov and Kherson regions.

This is evidenced by the numerous appeals by citizens through various channels to official structures and civil society organisations in the Russian Federation. Over the past day, another 112 such appeals have been received, and in total there are already 2,755,224 of 2,135 settlements in Ukraine in the database.

Since March 2nd, 18,790.1 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 990 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 1 action in Kharkov Region, during which 12.5 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

On May 10, two humanitarian actions have been planned and are currently being carried out in Kherson region, in Donetsk People's Republic, during which 76 tons of basic necessities, medicine and food will be distributed.

3. Situation on the battlefield

AFU continued to shell the DPR and LPR by heavy weapon intentionally damaging houses and social infrastructure..

The territolty LPR has been fully liberated from ultra-nazi battalion.

During the night, operational-tactical and army aviation have hit 93 assets, including 2 command posts, 69 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 3 ammunition depots of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Missile troops and artillery units have hit 407 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, destroying 13 command posts, 4 positions of Osa-AKM anti-aircraft missile systems and 14 ammunition depots.

The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 280 nationalists and up to 59 armoured and motor vehicles.

Russian air defence means have shot down 9 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles: 4 near Balakleya in Kharkov Region, 3 near Rubezhnoe in Lugansk Region, 1 near Snake Island and 1 Bayraktar-TB2 near Arkhangelskoe in Nikolaev Region overnight.


In total, 164 Ukrainian aircraft and 125 helicopters, 807 unmanned aerial vehicles, 302 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,998 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 360 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,455 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,808 of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.


*   *   *

[see please the next Report # 60: "Biden's Bill" on lend-lease: the declaration of total war on Russia]

 

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Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

 

Report # 61. Medvedev: there is the possibility of a nuclear war. But not initiated from Russia

May 12th, 2022

1.  Risks of turning into a nuclear war

Deputy Head of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev, against the background of the escalation by Western countries of the alleged nuclear threat emanating from Moscow, on May 12, in his Telegram blog, spoke about the possibility of a nuclear war.

He began with observation that the "pumping" of Ukraine with Western weapons, "sending mercenaries", NATO exercises near the Russian borders "increase the likelihood of a direct and open conflict between NATO and Russia," and such a conflict "always has the risk of turning into a full-fledged nuclear war." He urged the West to think about the consequences of its actions.

In his words: "Endless conversations of foreign analysts about the NATO war with Russia do not subside. Moreover, the cynicism of Western "talking heads" is becoming more and more outspoken. They are trying their best to introduce the thesis that Russia is scaring the world with a nuclear conflict into the agenda. Even Trump recently came out with this. True, of course, just to spite Biden. And of course, the Europeans are squeaking with their thin voices.

In the context of the proxy war unleashed by Western countries with Russia, Medvedev in the following three points articulated very clearly once again the things that are already obvious to all reasonable people.

1. NATO countries pumping Ukraine with weapons, preparing its troops to use Western equipment, sending mercenaries and conducting exercises of the Alliance countries near Russian borders increase the likelihood of a direct and open conflict between NATO and Russia instead of their "proxy war" they are waging.

2. Such a conflict always has the risk of turning into a full-fledged nuclear war.

3. This will be a disastrous scenario for everyone.

At the end Medvedev urged the proponents of nuclear war in the West not lie to themselves and others: “You just have to think about the possible consequences of your actions. And do not drown in your own saliva in the paroxysms of Russophobia!"

At the end of April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia considers a nuclear war unacceptable. In turn, the speaker of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin stressed that in accordance with the Russian military doctrine, Moscow can use nuclear weapons only as a retaliatory measure.

The day before, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that the Russian nuclear arsenal poses "significant problems" for the United States. "Russia remains a strong threat that requires close and constant coordination within NATO to prevent further aggression in Europe. <...> Russia's nuclear potential also creates significant problems now and will create in the future," the Pentagon chief said, carefully avoiding the U.S. nuclear arsenal that is growing and placed as a forward-based weapons.

At the same time there was a positive voice. "The United States provides military assistance to Ukraine and provides it with weapons. However, there is no question of providing Ukraine with nuclear weapons," Karen Donfried explained during a hearing in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee of the U.S. Congress. Earlier the CIA announced that Russia has not deployed nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Such stances create a chance that nuclear war will never be triggered from Europe.

2. Humanitarian situation in Ukraine

From the Statement of the Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine (May 11, 2022 at 21:45)

The Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, in cooperation with the authorized federal executive bodies and law enforcement agencies, continues to record in detail numerous facts of the inhuman attitude of the Kiev authorities towards their own people and the organization of provocations against the civilian population of Ukraine.

April 11th around 2 p.m. near Dolgenkoe, Kharkiv region, with the aim of accusing the Russian army of using chemical weapons, the Ukrainian security service and nationalists carried out an explosion of a tanker with fertilizer, presumably ammonium nitrate, which resulted in a cloud of orange smoke that dissipated after some time. There were no casualties as a result of this provocation among the military and the local population.

The Russian side has repeatedly warned of such provocations being prepared by the nationalists, the main purpose of which is to force additional military aid from the West by the Kiev regime.

In Kramatorsk-Slavyansk agglomeration, just as previously in Mariupol, AFU units equipped united fortified area of over 170 sq km and created the necessary reserves of weapons, ammunition, fuel, food and medicines. In densely populated areas, the militants have placed heavy weapons and equipment, set up firing points in houses, kept locals in basements under the pretext of allegedly ensuring their safety, and sprayed signs on building walls saying "Attention! Children!", "There are children here! Don't shoot!".

In total, over 90,000 civilians are blockaded by nationalists in residential areas and on the grounds of more than a dozen large industrial enterprises in Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, using them as "human shield". Any attempts by civilians to evacuate on their own to safe areas, either towards Russia or to Kiev-controlled territory, are harshly suppressed by fighters from nationalist battalions.

The particular cynicism of such actions is that the Kiev regime is prepared to sacrifice thousands of lives of its own citizens to achieve its criminal goals, which fully replicates the methods used by the Nazis during the Great Patriotic War to create "fortress cities".

Once again, we emphasize to the world community that such actions of Ukrainian neo-Nazis against civilians contradict all generally accepted norms of morality and principles of international humanitarian law and, in fact, are crimes against humanity and terrorism, while officials of the Kiev regime and direct executors are war criminals and terrorists.

Understanding the real threat of a catastrophic humanitarian situation with many civilian casualties in Kramatorsk and Slavyansk cities, we call on the international community, the United Nations, the OSCE, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other international organizations to immediately take all measures to safely evacuate civilians from these cities controlled by AFU units as soon as possible.

According to available information, at the exit from Dnepr city via Kaidak bridge, militants of the territorial defence battalions only allow civilians to pass in the direction of the Donetsk People's Republic and Kharkov region for a fixed fee, demanding "unaffordable" money of 200$ per person for most ordinary people. In addition, it has been reliably established that this bridge is mined and will be blown up if Russian units and formations of the Donetsk People's Republic approach.

Subsequently, the Ukrainian side plans to cynically accuse the Russian Armed Forces of allegedly indiscriminate strikes against vital social infrastructure, following a well-tested scenario.

Russia stresses once again that in carrying out the tasks of the special military operation, the Russian Armed Forces treat the civilian population with the utmost humanity and do not strike at civilian infrastructure.

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles posed by Kiev, over the past 24 hours, without the involvement of the Ukrainian authorities, 9,456 people, including 1,353 children, have been evacuated from dangerous areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics and Ukraine to the Russian Federation. Since the beginning of the special military operation, a total of 1,217,681 people have been evacuated, including 211,577 children. The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 158,066 personal vehicles including 1,415 per day.

Russia continues to maintain a sufficient number of comfortable buses at checkpoints to transport people to their chosen places of residence or temporary accommodation, where hot meals are provided and qualified medical and psychological assistance is provided in a timely manner.

Over the past 24 hours, the hotline of the Interdepartmental Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, federal executive authorities, constituent entities of the Russian Federation and various NGOs received 123 requests from foreign and Ukrainian citizens to evacuate to Russia, the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, as well as to the Russian Armed Forces-controlled areas of Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, Kharkov and Kherson regions. In total there are 2,755,353 such appeals from 2,135 locations in Ukraine in the database.

More than 23,000 tonnes of basic necessities and food kits, including baby food and life-saving medicines, have been prepared at collection points.

3. Situation on the battlefield

High-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces have hit 4 command posts, 34 areas of concentration of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment, as well as 2 ammunition depots near Novhorod-Siverskyi, Chernigov Region, during the day.

The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 320 nationalists and up to 72 armoured and motor vehicles.

Operational-tactical and army aviation of the Russian Aerospace Force have hit 120 areas of concentration of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment.

In addition, 1 Ukrainian S-300 anti-aircraft missile system radar station near Odessa and 1 missile and artillery weapons depot near Krasnopavlovka, Kharkov Region, have been destroyed.

Missile troops and artillery have hit 405 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, 12 command posts and 26 artillery units at firing positions.

One S-300 anti-aircraft missile system has been destroyed near Koroych, Kharkov Region. 3 Smerch multiple-launch rocket launchers and 2 ammunition depots of the Ukrainian armed forces have also been destroyed near Razdolie in Kharkov Region and Slavyansk in Donetsk People's Republic.

Air defence means have shot down 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Velikie Prokhody, Velikaya Kamyshevakha in Kharkov Region, Panteleimonovka, Avdeevka and Dolya in Donetsk Region, Oknino and Fabrichnoe in Lugansk Region, Glubokoe in Chernigov Region, Barvinok and Vladimirovka in Dnepropetrovsk Region. One Bayraktar-TB2 unmanned aerial vehicle has been shot down near Zmeinyi (Snake) Island. 14 Ukrainian Smerch multiple-launch rockets have been intercepted in the air over Zavody, Sukhaya Kamenka, Pimonovka, Izyum, Malaya Kamyshevakha in Kharkov Region, as well as Goncharovka, Topolskoe and Donetsk.


In total, 164 Ukrainian aircraft and 125 helicopters, 821 unmanned aerial vehicles, 303 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,013 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 364 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,471 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,824 special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.


4. Will the prices boost in the USA change the political landscape inside the country?

Elections to the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate will be held on November 8, 2022.

Following a sharp drop in the rating of President Joseph Biden's chances of a majority in Congress and the Democratic Party he leads are gradually fading. Already, Biden's team's efforts have focused on maintaining their own positions by distracting the American electorate from internal problems by cultivating an external Russian threat that simply cannot produce any effect on the American voters. They themselves knew and still know whom to elect.

The political positions of the Democrats are undermined by the sharp increase in the cost of energy resources, reinforced by sanctions against Moscow. May 10th amid the decline in world oil prices the average cost of one gallon of gasoline at American gas stations has risen to a record high of $ 4.37. According to the Wall Street Journal in 2022 alone, gasoline prices in the United States increased by 47 percent by May 11.

Based on this, the Biden administration will be restrained by gasoline prices in every possible way until the November elections, including through the use of "gray schemes" for the purchase of Russian oil.

Increasing pressure on Moscow over the conflict in Ukraine not only leads to the breakdown of the Western economic system, but also accelerates the process of rapprochement between Russia and China, thereby strengthening Beijing's position in the international arena. This clearly contradicts The U.S. National Security Strategy, in which China is seen as the only existential threat to the USA.

As the parliamentary elections approach, there is an increase in the number of threats addressed to members of regional and municipal election commissions. In 2021, 4 thousand out of 8.5 election commission employees received similar messages (985 people quit). In January - March this year, 1.5 thousand "acts of intimidation" took place, after which another 20 percent of officials announced their intention to resign.

And not only that. More and more rank-and-file Americans are getting angry over the prices hike, created by the current Administration.

If the prices on major goods and services will continue to rise and if the policy of inciting failed and incredible Ukrainian leaders, it could change political landscape in the USA during the November election in 2022 and Presidential elections in 2024.

 


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

 

Report # 62. It is Lithuania, not Russia, is a terrorist state that encourages neo-nazism and genocide

May 15, 2022

On May 10, the Lithuanian Seimas unanimously adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a "state supporting and carrying out terrorism."

During the hearings, this decision was justified by Russia’s conducting a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine. As arguments, fabricated conclusions were cited about events in a number of places on Ukrainian territory that were controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Drawing parallels comparing the special operation in Ukraine with the "genocide of the Ukrainian people," the deputies called for the creation, by analogy with the Nuremberg or Tokyo tribunals, of a special international military tribunal for the "investigation and evaluation of Russian war crimes." The hearing in the Sejm ended with an appeal to other European countries to follow Lithuania's example.

The need to include Russia in the list of countries that sponsor terrorism has been imposed by Washington almost from the very beginning of hostilities in Ukraine. The inclusion of Russia in this list will force Europe to finally destroy trade and economic ties with it, which will inevitably affect the already undermined European economies. Lithuania undoubtedly expects dividends from the transatlantic Alliance for the adopted resolution. This demarche of Riga is intended to justify to its own population the need to billet a contingent of thousands of armed NATO at the eastern borders on a permanent basis.

On May 13, the Foreign Ministers of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia issued

a joint demand to increase the presence of the NATO armed contingent in the Baltic states. The Baltic states are calling on the leadership of the alliance to increase the number of multinational forces of the bloc on their territories by almost five times – from one to five thousand people.

Lithuania is really a state pursuing a policy of state terrorism and acting as an accomplice of Kiev's aggression against Donbass.

It should be recalled that training bombing was carried out on Lithuanian territory using heavy strategic bombers of the United States. At the Lithuanian Zokniai airbase near Shauliai, as part of the transatlantic military bloc Air Force operation called “Baltic Air Policing” conducted since 2004, dual-use capable fighter-bombers of a number of Alliance countries are deployed, that is, those that are capable of carrying both non-nuclear and nuclear weapons. Is it not clear against whom these forces and weapons can be used?

In addition, there are calls for the transformation of this operation into a full-fledged air defense of the region. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis reminded the North Atlantic Alliance of its duty to ensure "a clear consensus that every inch of NATO territory will be protected." He also noted that "the entry of two new countries into the military bloc will give reliability from a political point of view and from a security standpoint," and the actions of Sweden and Finland are "a very clear message that the northern part of Europe is NATO territory."

It is known that Lithuanian mercenaries took part in the fighting in the North Caucasus two decades ago. They are taking a similar part nowadays, when Kiev has launched its third aggressive war against the people of Donbass, who did not want to live in a neo-Nazi Ukrainian state. Baltic instructors have been training national battalions in Ukraine since 2014, actively cultivating neo-Nazi beliefs among their members. Vilnius has been supplying automatic small arms to Kiev for a long time, which kills people.

The decision of Vilnius to close its airspace for the transit of civil aircraft following the route Moscow-Kaliningrad-Moscow is barbaric. Now passengers of such flights traveling from Moscow to the capital of the Kaliningrad Region and back have to fly to Ust-Luga in the Leningrad region, and then make a U-turn of about 180 degrees to get either to Kaliningrad or from it to Moscow.

Russia’s response

The resolution of the Lithuanian Seimas, even if it is enshrined in national legislation, will not have any legal or political consequences for Russia.

But, on the other hand, it can be considered a sufficient reason to increase the costs of European economies for the maintenance of additional NATO military contingents on their territory, as well as an increase in military spending. It should be noted that the main burden of such expenses will be borne by the population of the whole of Europe, and not only by the Baltic States, which is a subsidized region.

The State Duma of the Russian Federation has begun discussing the grounds for classifying Lithuania, as well as Latvia and Estonia, as "accomplices of Nazism". But this is clearly not enough. It is quite possible to declare these three "accomplices of the Ukrainian aggression" against Donbass.

There are all grounds for making such a decision. The elements of crimes, carefully worked out during the Nuremberg Military Tribunal mentioned by the Seimas, are not only not hidden in the named Baltic States, but on the contrary, are praised and are the subject of their national pride. When voting for the UN General Assembly resolution "On combating the glorification of Nazism", which was supported by 133 states, the aforementioned "troika" expectedly abstained.

For more than 20 years, these three states have been consistently discrediting the Soviet system, under which they enjoyed special privileges, as well as rehabilitating local collaborators who collaborated with Nazi Germany, served in SS divisions and self-created "sonder commandos", personally participated in the "Holocaust". The Lithuanian authorities are introducing into the masses a state ideology, the indicator of which is the glorification of the "forest brothers", whose monstrous crimes are well documented, proven and have no statute of limitations for the crimes they committed. Now almost every Lithuanian city has facilities that bear the names of Nazi collaborators.

Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are introducing narratives of the development of neo-Nazism, organizing events to honor the memory of local "Nazi heroes" and, on the contrary, to denigrate Soviet soldiers-liberators. At the legislative level, the blasphemous equalization of the rights of those who fought against Nazi Germany with those who defended the fascists is enshrined. Acts of vandalism against monuments to Soviet soldiers are encouraged.

The Russian Foreign Ministry called the decision of the Lithuanian parliament "extremist and hypocritical" and for this reason it should be treated as a provocation. "This decision has nothing to do with the desire to resolve the emergency situation that has developed in Ukraine," the Russian Foreign Ministry stressed.

Viktor Vodolatsky, First Deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration and Relations with compatriots, said that countries such as Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland are trying their best to prove their worth and make decisions that, in their opinion, demonstrate "coolness" and independence. These are people who have forgotten their history, who do not remember that Russia has always fought terrorism. They see that anti-Russian sanctions are not working, and the boomerang of consequences is coming to them.

"In fact, we are talking about Lithuania's provocative behavior towards Russia at a time when there is already a tense situation in the North Baltic region, primarily related to Finland and Sweden's applications for NATO membership," Dmitry Danilov, Head of the European Security Department at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, commented on Lithuanian actions.

Lithuania is an active participant in the competition for recognition by the collective West of their country as one of the most anti–Russian states. Due to the fact that over 10,000 sanctions imposed against the Russian Federation did not give the expected result, Vilnius decided to go beyond the proposals for the introduction of new sanctions. Against the background of discussions in the United States on the inclusion of Russia in the list of sponsors of terrorism, there is no doubt that Lithuania also expects dividends from the resolution hastily adopted by the Seimas.

If the Russian Federation decides to classify Lithuania as an "accomplice of Nazism", its consequences will be very unfavorable for Vilnius, from economic sanctions to the severance of political and cultural ties. Only the termination of the transit of Kazakh oil through the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus to the Klaipeda Commercial sea Port will deprive Lithuania of about 10 percent of the already deficient budget. Given that according to the 2021 census, up to one fifth of the population of the Baltic States are ethnic Russians, and more than a third of the Balts have close ties with Russia, the rupture of relations will cause a wave of protest moods in the society of the aforementioned "troika".

But all these and possible other negative consequences for them will be their conscious choice, and not the choice of the Russian Federation.

 


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 63. Moscow once again draws attention to the U.S. biolabs

            May 16th, 2022

1. By creating secret biolabs in Ukraine the USA violated the BWC

On May 16th, Russia hosted a meeting of the heads of state of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Addressing the meeting President Vladimir Putin pointed out that the efforts to maintain biological security also require the most serious attention. For a long time, Russia sounded the alarm about U.S. military biological activity in the post-Soviet space.

In his words: “It is common knowledge that the Pentagon has established dozens of specialised biological laboratories and centres in our common region, and that they are by no means merely providing practical medical assistance to the population of the countries where they are operating. Their main task is to collect biological materials and to analyse the spread of viruses and dangerous diseases for their own purposes.

Now, during the special operation in Ukraine, documentary evidence was obtained that components of biological weapons were developed in close proximity to our borders, which violates the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention, and possible methods and mechanisms were worked out to destabilize the epidemiological situation in the post-Soviet space”. < ….>

He continued: “I would like to highlight our priority task of jointly defending the memory of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, the feat of our peoples who saved the world from Nazism at the cost of enormous and irreparable sacrifices, and to counteract any attempts to whitewash the Nazis, their accomplices and modern followers. <…> Indeed, we hear, and I hear people say that extremists can be found anywhere, which is true. Extremists are everywhere and one way or another they are leaving their underground hideouts and make themselves known. Nowhere, though – I want to underscore this – nowhere are Nazis being glorified at the state level and not a single civilised country’s authorities are encouraging thousands of neo-Nazi torchlight processions with Nazi symbols. This is something that is not practiced anywhere. But unfortunately, this is happening in Ukraine”.

2. Humanitarian issues


BREAKING NEWS: On May 16th, 2022 in liberated Mariupol, an agreement was reached between on the removal of wounded Ukrainian servicemen blocked at the Azovstal plant. By evening May 16th nine Ukrainian soldiers with white flag surrendered to the Russian and the DPR troops.

Currently, a regime of silence has been introduced in the area near the enterprise and a humanitarian corridor has been opened, through which wounded Ukrainian servicemen have been taken to a medical facility in Novoazovsk, the Donetsk People's Republic to provide them with all necessary medical assistance.


From the Statement of the Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine:

Kiev continues inhumane treatment of civilians, and uses  social infrastructure for military purposes:

a) in Nikolaev, in and around schools No 7, 15 and 35, and in Kramatorsk of the Donetsk People's Republic in schools No 5, 6 and 9, fighters of Ukrainian armed formations have equipped firing positions, deployed armoured vehicles, artillery and MLRS, and are forcibly holding residents of nearby houses in the basements;

b) in New York (Novgorodskoe) of the Donetsk People's Republic, AFU units equipped stronghold in Petrovskaya Gora residential area and school No 16 and placed heavy weapons and ammunition storage. However, no civilians were evacuated;

c) in Severodonetsk, Lugansk People's Republic, artillery and multiple rocket launchers have been deployed by the Ukrainian armed forces on the territory of a chemical plant in close proximity to densely populated residential areas.

The militants, knowing that the victims of such criminal actions would be civilians, deliberately target Russian Armed Forces positions from residential areas, provoking them to return fire in order to subsequently place responsibility for the destruction of civilian infrastructure and possible civilian casualties on Russian servicemen, and spread fakes about alleged "Russian atrocities" through Western media and on various Internet sites.

Such actions by Kiev once again demonstrate an inhuman attitude towards the fate of its own citizens and show a complete disregard for all norms of morality and international humanitarian law. Meanwhile, the countries of the collective West prefer to cynically "turn a blind eye" to the numerous war crimes committed by the Kiev regime.

Russia emphasized once again that in carrying out the tasks of the special military operation, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, unlike the armed formations of Ukraine, treat the local population extremely humanely and do not strike at civilian infrastructure.

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles posed by Kiev, over the past 24 hours, without the involvement of the Ukrainian authorities, 19,378 people, including 2,297 children, have been evacuated from dangerous areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics and Ukraine to the Russian Federation.

Since the beginning of the special military operation, a total of 1,279,619 people have been evacuated to Russia, including 221,111 children.

More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centres continue to operate in the regions of the Russian Federation. The refugees are dealt with on an individual basis and are promptly assisted with various pressing issues relating to onward accommodation, employment assistance, places for children in kindergartens and educational institutions, and the provision of entitlements to social benefits.

Federal executive authorities, together with the subjects of the Russian Federation, various public organizations, patriotic movements, continue to accumulate humanitarian aid. More than 23,000 tonnes of basic necessities and food kits, including baby food and life-saving medicines, have been prepared at collection points.

In the liberated territories, the Russian Armed Forces and military units of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics are creating all the necessary conditions for a peaceful and safe life, providing the population with comprehensive assistance, including unimpeded access to any humanitarian aid.

Since March 2, 19,910 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 1,009 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 7 actions in Zaparozhye and Kharkov regions, as well as in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, during which 552.4 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

On May 14, 5 humanitarian actions have been planned and are currently being carried out in Kharkov and Zaporozye regions, in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, during which 434.4 tonnes of basic necessities, medicine and food will be distributed.

3. Russia comments on allegations of violence against children in Ukraine

Moscow’s envoy to the UN slammed the accusations as baseless, while Kiev has failed to confirm a single fact of the story

The allegations of assorted atrocities against children purportedly committed by the Russian military in Ukraine are “absurd” and not backed up by any facts, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, Vassily Nebenzia, has said. The diplomat made the remarks during a UN Security Council meeting on May 12.

“Today, we once again heard accusations from a number of colleagues against the Russian military of committing acts of violence, including sexual violence, against children. This was voiced, in particular, by a British colleague, but by others as well,” he stated, adding that said allegations were “absurd.”

The claims are not backed by facts, with even top Kiev officials admitting they do not have any actual evidence to support them, Nebenzia went on, bringing up a recent interview with Daria Gerasimchuk, the adviser to the Ukrainian president’s commissioner for children's rights.

“To date, the Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office has not a single confirmed fact of violence,” she told the Poland-based Belsat TV channel in Belarus last week.

Ukrainian forces, on the contrary, have been routinely taking up positions at schools and kindergartens, deliberately turning such facilities into military targets, Nebenzia stated.

“The occupation of schools, kindergartens and other children’s educational institutions by the Ukrainian Armed Forces is not the exception, but the rule,” the diplomat said. “This inhumane method of warfare endangers the lives of children, deprives them of their right to education, and destroys Ukraine's educational infrastructure. We have the strong impression that the norms of international humanitarian law exist for anyone, but not for Kiev … The deliberate destruction of civilian assets is a hallmark of Kiev, and this is not Russian propaganda”.

4. Navigation at the Black Sea

75 foreign vessels from 17 countries still remain blocked in 7 Ukrainian ports (Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa, Yuzhniy and Mariupol). The threat of shelling and high mine danger created by official Kiev in its internal waters and territorial sea prevents vessels from safely leaving the ports and reaching the open sea.

In confirmation of this, the Russian Federation is opening daily from 08:00 to 19:00 (Moscow time) a humanitarian corridor, which is a safe lane south-west of Ukraine's territorial sea, 80 nautical miles long and 3 nautical miles wide.

Detailed information in English and Russian on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridor is broadcast daily every 15 minutes on VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels in English and Russian.

At the same time, the Kiev authorities continue to avoid engaging with representatives of states and ship-owning companies to resolve the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area.

The danger to navigation from Ukrainian mines drifting off their anchors along the coasts of Black Sea states remains.

In order to divert attention of the world community from massive mining of the Black Sea Ukrainian authorities in Odessa has invented a fake that allegedly Russia mined coastal waters near that city controlled by AFU. For that purpose, they have found very old rusty mine on a beach. There is no need for the Russian Navy to set any mine at this sea because Ukrainian Navy has been entirely destroyed.

The Russian Federation is taking a full range of comprehensive measures to ensure the safety of civilian navigation in the waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

5. Foreign military volunteers share their experiences of fighting in Ukraine

Fighters from several countries complain of corrupt commanders, suicide missions, poor equipment and intelligence in Ukraine.

According to Ukrainian officials, over 20,000 foreign nationals from 52 countries have arrived in the country to participate in the ongoing military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. However, some have shared their experiences claiming that they had been asked to take part in suicide missions, others complain of corrupt commanders and little or poor equipment.

Mamuka Mamulashvili, who serves as the commander of the Georgian Legion - an international brigade set up in Ukraine in 2014 - told the UK’s Telegraph newspaper that he estimates that “70% of people who’ve come out to join the International Legion have already turned back,” adding that those who are coming into the country are too impatient to see combat. “This isn’t war tourism,” he says.

A volunteer from the UK, Matt Robinson, who serves as a military trainer in Kiev, noted that many of the foreign nationals coming into the country are severely unprepared for what awaits them as some of the recruits have nothing but simple hunting experience and basic survival skills.

“You’re likely to get hit by shelling long before you’ll ever get the chance to exchange fire with anybody, which is what most people want to do,” he warned, noting that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is primarily an artillery war, where soldiers spend most of their time taking cover rather than shooting at each other.

6. Situation on the battlefield

Armed Forces of Ukraine continue shelling of the DPR and LPR, mainly targeting living housed and social infrastructure. In the last 24 hours AFU fired 200 shells versus 10 residential areas in these two independent republics.

At the same time high-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces have hit 28 company strongholds of AFU and 2 ammunition depots near Petrovskoe and Zhovtnevoe during the day. Operational-tactical and army aviation have hit 33 areas of concentration of manpower and military equipment. The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 90 nationalists and up to 18 armoured and motor vehicles.

Missile troops and artillery have hit 6 command posts, 178 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, 3 fortified bunkers, and 28 artillery units at firing positions, including 1 Smerch multiple-launch rocket system launcher near Berezovka during the day.

Russian air defence means have shot down 6 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles during the day near Russkaya Lozovaya, Pitomnik, and Izyum in Kharkov Region, including one over Snake Island. In addition, 1 Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missile was intercepted near Khleborob and 3 Smerch multiple-launch rocket launchers were intercepted near the village of Kamenka, Kharkov Region.


In total, 165 Ukrainian aircraft and 125 helicopters, 879 unmanned aerial vehicles, 306 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,098 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 381 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,525 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,934  special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation



Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 64. 265 “Azov” ultra-nazi militants surrendered

May 18th, 2022

1. A large group of “Azov” ultra-nazi  faction unconditionally laid down their arms

The surrender of militants from the Azov nationalist factions and Ukrainian servicemen blocked at the Azovstal plant in Mariupol began May 16th. This act is not considered as their “evacuation”, but rather as official surrender. The surrender was unconditional. The term “evacuation” applied by Kiev is a wrong one. It can be applied only to civilians who have been freed from the plant earlier.

Over the past 24 hours, 265 militants have laid down arms and surrendered, including 51 seriously wounded. All those in need of medical assistance were sent for treatment to a hospital in Novoazovsk, Donetsk People's Republic. Non-injured militants have been delivered into another city. Some of them pretended to be as non-fighters, self-nominating them as “cooks” or “archivists” at military HQs, not knowing how to carry a gun and to shoot. All militants eliminated their loops and other military insignia, some were in civilian attire. They have been selected into three groups: soldiers and officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), “Azov” neo-nazi militants and foreign mercenaries.

All of them will be interrogated. Their blamed their military and political chieftains for their betrayal. Earlier all of them have been very brave with unarmed Ukrainian civilians. But now they are very shy and modest. Their morale is very low. All of them have been surprised by positive, polite and human attitude displayed to them by Russian and the DPR and LPR troops as well as medical staffers.

According to estimations, there could be up to 2,000 combatants inside the plant, which boasts massive underground communications. This figure has not been verified so far.

2. Humanitarian situation

From the statement of the Russian Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine:

Nationalist battalion fighters and AFU units, using civilians as human shields, continue to use civilian infrastructure to equip strongholds and deploy heavy weaponry.

“Azov” neo-nazi faction activity:

a) in Mirnograd, Donetsk People's Republic, kindergarten No 19 in the Vostochnyi Microdistrict and a boarding school on L. Chaikina Street have been equipped with strongholds and barracks, and armoured vehicles and artillery have been placed in close proximity to residential areas;

b) in Borovaya, Kharkov Region, barracks have been equipped in the school building and the Beryozka kindergarten, and heavy military equipment, artillery and MLRS have been placed on the territories. At the same time, civilians with children are forcibly detained in basements.

Fighters of “Aidar” neo-nazi faction activity:

a) on the territory of the Church of the Praise of the Mother of God in Pavlograd, Dnepropetrovsk Region, firing positions, artillery and MLRS have been placed in close proximity to densely populated residential areas;

b) in Zaporozhye, they equipped firing positions and ammunition depots on the lower floors of hospitals on Sobornyi Prospect and Pobedy Street. At the same time, hospital staff and patients are held back as human shield.

Armed formations of the Donbass battalion have equipped a stronghold in residential building No 10 on General Lozanovich Street in Slavyansk in the Donetsk People's Republic and deployed heavy weapons and an ammunition depot. However, no civilians were evacuated from the building.

In Sumy, AFU units have mined a road bridge on Kharkovskaya Street over the railway tracks of the Southern Railway branch, which they plan to blow up, blaming it on allegedly "advancing units of Russian troops".

The militants, knowing that the victims of such criminal actions would be civilians, deliberately target Russian Armed Forces positions from residential areas, provoking them to return fire in order to subsequently place responsibility for the destruction of civilian infrastructure and possible civilian casualties on Russian servicemen, and spread fakes about alleged "Russian atrocities" through Western media and on various Internet sites.

On May 16th between 10:00 and 11:00AM Ukrainian nationalists used Smerch multiple rocket launchers to hit residential areas of Kherson. Russian air defence means have intercepted all 10 Ukrainian rockets. Russian MoD stressed that there are no units of Russian troops in Kherson. The Kiev regime is well informed about this. Kherson is controlled by the local administration who is very critical to the failed and aggressive Kiev regime. The strike was deliberately targeted at civilians in Kherson in retaliation for supporting the Russian Federation.

Such actions of the Kiev regime once again demonstrate an inhuman attitude to the fate of Ukrainian citizens and indicate a gross violation of the norms of international humanitarian law, but despite our repeated statements, they still remain without the attention of the international community and international organizations.

3. Process of evacuation of civilians

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles posed by Kiev, over the past 24 hours, without the involvement of the Ukrainian authorities, 17,733 people, including 1,797 children, have been evacuated from dangerous areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics and Ukraine to the Russian Federation. Since the beginning of the special military operation, a total of 1,325,714 people have been evacuated to Russia, including 225,892 children. The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 180,286 personal vehicles including 2,873 per day.

More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centres continue to operate in the regions of the Russian Federation. The refugees are dealt with on an individual basis and are promptly assisted with various pressing issues relating to onward accommodation, employment assistance, places for children in kindergartens and educational institutions, and the provision of entitlements to social benefits.

Over the past 24 hours, the hotline of the Interdepartmental Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, federal executive authorities, constituent entities of the Russian Federation and various NGOs received 102 requests from foreign and Ukrainian citizens to evacuate to Russia, the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, as well as to the Russian Armed Forces-controlled areas of Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, Kharkov and Kherson regions. In total there are 2,755,925 such appeals from 2,135 locations in Ukraine in the database.

4. Real distribution of humanitarian aid

In the liberated territories, the Russian Armed Forces and military units of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics are creating all the necessary conditions for a peaceful and safe life, providing the population with comprehensive assistance, including unimpeded access to any humanitarian aid.

Since March 2nd, 20,592.4 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 1,021 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 4 actions in Kharkov and Kherson regions, as well as in Donetsk People's Republic, during which 155 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

On May 17, one humanitarian actions have been planned and are currently being carried out in Donetsk People's Republic, during which 136 tons of basic necessities, medicine and food will be distributed.

5. The U.S. aid to Ukraine is “like money laundering schemes”

The financial support the USA provides to Ukraine looks very much “like money laundering schemes,” Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) has told ‘The Truth With Lisa Boothe’ podcast on May 16th. The money supposedly destined for Ukrainians ends up in the pockets of “non-profits and NGOs” that are often run by people close to the politicians in Washington, Greene has claimed.

“They want to get $40 billion to Ukraine and you have these $40 billion on top of the money that have already been given. That brings it to $53 billion. That is over two thirds of the State Department’s entire budget for the year,” the congresswoman said, referring to the latest aid package that is currently going through the U.S Senate. .

According to Greene, the U.S. officials are doing this to eventually fund the NGOs operated by “their families and friends.” “It is basically like money laundering schemes,” she said. The congresswoman believes these funds should be spent to deal with issues inside the USA instead, including homelessness or human trafficking, which, according to Greene, have reached “record-high” levels.

6. The USA has been “actively recruiting” terrorists to fight in Ukraine

The USA has been “actively recruiting” terrorists to fight in Ukraine, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claimed on May 17th, saying that it illustrates Washington’s readiness “to use any means to achieve its geopolitical goals.”

The SVR revealed in a statement that, according to the intelligence it is receiving, “the United States is actively recruiting even members of international terrorist organizations, including the Islamic State (ISIS) group banned in the Russian Federation, as mercenaries to participate in hostilities in Ukraine.”

The Russian intelligence service points to the American military base in Syria called al-Tanf, which is located close to the borders with Jordan and Iraq. According to its sources, this base and the surrounding area have turned into a kind of terrorist “hub,” where up to 500 ISIS and other jihadists can be “retrained” simultaneously. SVR claimed that last month 60 ISIS militants, who had been released from prisons controlled by the Syrian Kurds, were transferred to al-Tanf “with a view to subsequent transfer to Ukrainian territory.”

The SVR specified that during a training course at al-Tanf the militants are instructed on how to use anti-tank missile systems, reconnaissance and strike drones, advanced communications and surveillance equipment.

In the SVR’s opinion, this data confirms that “the United States is ready to use any means to achieve its geopolitical goals, not excluding sponsoring international terrorist groups.”

The intelligence service concluded by saying that the American administration does not consider the consequences of such actions, “even when it comes to threats to the security of European allies and even to the lives of the Americans.”

Washington has insisted that “there are no US soldiers in Ukraine.” This is not true. See Report # 63 dated May 16th..

Meanwhile, the presence of American troops on Syrian territory at al-Tanf base, which the SVR mentions in its statement, has long been considered by both Moscow and Damascus as illegal. The previous U.S. administration pledged that American forces would leave northeastern Syria, but only after ISIS militants are defeated and the Kurds protected.

In October 2021, there were reports that, according to Israeli defense sources, about 350 military members and civilians were still using al-Tanf, including some British and French forces that were described as “intelligence experts.”

[ https://www.rt.com/russia/555653-us-recruits-isis-terrorists]

7. The situation at the Black Sea

No major changes; the situation is the same as reflected in the Repots # 62: 75 foreign merchant vessels are still trapped in Ukrainian ports controlled by Kiev; the danger to navigation from Ukrainian naval mines drifting off their anchors along the coasts of Black Sea states remains. Mine sweeping operation goes on in Mariupol port controlled by Russian and the DPR troops.

The Russian Federation is taking a full range of comprehensive measures to ensure the safety of civilian navigation in the waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

8. Reality on the battlefield

High-precision long-range sea-based Kalibr missiles near Starichi railway station in Lvov Region have destroyed the personnel of Ukrainian reserve formations, as well as shipments of foreign weapons and military equipment from the United States and European countries, prepared for shipment to Donbass.

High-precision long-range sea-based Kalibr missiles near Starichi railway station in Lvov Region have destroyed shipments of foreign weapons and military equipment from the United States and European countries, prepared for shipment to Donbass.

In addition, high-precision air- and ground-based long-range missiles have destroyed enemy reserves that were completing their combat coordination at the training centers near Akhtyrka, Sumy Region, and Desna, Chernigov Region.

High-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces have hit 2 command posts and 1 communications centre, including those of the 30th Mechanized Brigade near Bakhmut, 28 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration, and 2 missile-artillery weapons and ammunition depots near Ugledar and Konstantinovka in Donetsk People's Republic. The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 470 nationalists and up to 68 armoured and motor vehicles.

In addition, 1 traction power substation have been destroyed near Merefa railway station in Kharkov region, which was delivering weapons and military equipment from the United States and Western countries to Donbass.

Operational-tactical and army aviation have hit 9 command posts, 93 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 3 ammunition depots near Luparevo and Shevchenkovo in Nikolaev region.

Missile troops and artillery have hit 6 command posts, 224 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration, 12 artillery and mortar batteries at firing positions, 4 BM-21 Grad MLRS batteries and 2 air target detection radar stations.

Russian air defence means have shot down 23 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles over Pitomnik, Izyum, Snezhkovka, Olkhovatka, Dementievka, Russkaya Lozovaya, Bolshie Prokhody and Petrovskoe in Kharkov Region, Staromikhailovka, Novotamarovka, Novotroitskoe, Nevelskoe, Sverdlovo, Avdeevka and Vladimirovka in Donetsk People's Republic. 8 Smerch rockets have been intercepted near Chernobaevka, Kherson Region.

Russian troops for the first time have used during the operation in Ukraine “Terminator” – combat tanks support vehicle already rested in Syria.


By May 17th in total, 168 Ukrainian aircraft and 125 helicopters, 912 unmanned aerial vehicles, 309 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,134 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 385 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,542 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,983 of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation

 


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 65. The fate of those who left Azovstal plant and surrendered

May 19th, 2022

           

1. The fate of those who have left Azovstal plant and laid down arms is clear: a fair trial

On May 16, the surrender of the militants of the Azov nationalist grouping and Ukrainian Armed Forces servicemen plus a number of foreign mercenaries blocked at the basement of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol began. Presumably, more than 2,000-2,500 Ukrainian militants were hiding at the enterprise having 27 km corridors before that moment, about 800 of them have been members of the Azov nationalist faction banned in Russia.

In the past 24 hours, one more group of 771 militants of the Azov nationalist formation have surrendered at the Azovstal plant.


A total of 1,730 militants have surrendered since May 16th by the evening May 19th, including 80 wounded


 

All those in need of inpatient treatment are treated in medical facilities in the Donetsk People's Republic in Novoazovsk and Donetsk.

The Ukrainian military who have come out and laid down their arms have been taken to the pre-trial detention center in the Yelenovka, the Donetsk People's Republic, where investigative actions are being carried out with them.

It is significant to note that on the morning of May 17th, this center was fired at by the AFU from a multiple launch rocket system. The Kiev regime has always treated its citizens in this way. This story was no exception.

Russia's firm position is that no Nazi criminal will escape responsibility. Now only the court will determine the involvement of each surrendered person in the commission of war crimes and will impose a fair punishment on the guilty. Only servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who have not stained themselves with criminal activity will be subject to subsequent exchange. The State Duma of the Russian Federation is already considering an initiative to legislate a ban on the exchange of military and Nazi criminals.

The actions of the Russian side are consistent and logical. On the contrary, the Kiev authorities and the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who have repeatedly stated the impossibility of unblocking Mariupol by military means, stubbornly delayed the beginning of the inevitable surrender.

Ukraine is trying to save face with stuffing about a "special operation of a humanitarian nature" conducted under the leadership of Ukrainian intelligence. On May 17, president of Ukraine Zelensky called the mass surrender that had begun "evacuation for subsequent exchange for captured Russians." Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Malyar said about the "order" allegedly given by the supreme military command. The leading Western media strongly support Kiev's outright lies. The American CNN channel informs its audience about "Ukraine's completion of the combat operation in Mariupol to evacuate Azovstal." The New York Times newspaper published an article dedicated to the "end of the battle" at the combine, in which it presented the unconditional surrender of Azov by "evacuation of fighters who completed their combat mission."

They are wrong. These nationalists and AFU troops have surrendered unconditionally to the Russian and the DPR troops. Only civilians who have left the plant earlier have been really “evacuated”.

The ICRC team has visited the places of detention of those who have surrendered. All POW said that they are treated normally, with dignity, and in the framework of the respective Geneva Convention. No doubt, they will get a fair trial.

2. On the involvement of children in the activities of Ukrainian nationalist formations

As the nationalist formations of Ukraine are expelled from the territory of Donbass, new facts are being revealed confirming the involvement of children in the activities of these misanthropic structures. Russia has repeatedly said that right-wing radical organizations that enjoyed the patronage of the Kiev regime systematically engaged and are still engaged in the spread of extremism among minors. All this is done in order to root the ideas of militant nationalism in Ukrainian society.

Neo-Nazis from Azov began large-scale child recruitment activities back in 2015, organizing the so-called Youth Corps camps on the initiative of the leader of the National Corps, A. Biletsky. In 2015, children from 9 to 18 years old were admitted to them, and since 2016, from 7 to 18 years old.

In 2018, a power youth wing was formed on the basis of the "National Corps", called "National Squads". Hundreds of young people aged 14 and over joined the ranks of the "vigilantes". Their instructors from "Azov" taught them forceful methods of fighting the "enemies of Ukraine", including the use of firearms.

Funds from the Ukrainian state budget are allocated for the needs of the specialized "Youth Corps". Does it remind you of anything? In 2019, organizations associated with the National Corps received $17,000 to hold events for children and youth. We see it. People with stripes on the sleeves of "Azov", with nationalist, neo–Nazi symbols - it is clear what values are taught to young people. There are training camps for teenagers "Azovets", "Bukovynets", "Dnepryanin" located in various parts of the country. Special attention was paid to attracting teenagers through social networks and messengers.

According to eyewitnesses, neo-Nazis from "Azov" did not limit themselves to "children's camps" and expanded their grouping at the expense of underage orphans. Confirmation of this is the situation with the Pilgrim orphanage in Mariupol. For all 8 years since 2014, the "Azovites" have been working closely with the pupils of this orphanage, teaching them military affairs, including sniper shooting. According to media reports, in 2014, children from "Pilgrim" helped the APU to dig trenches near Mariupol, and in October of the same year to build roadblocks. According to residents of Mariupol, during the events of February-April 2022 the Children's Rehabilitation Center "Republic Pilgrim" was the headquarters of the territorial defense, where militants from "Azov" and other radical groups were based. There is video evidence that teenagers from the "Pilgrim" participated in hostilities on the side of neo-Nazis, and also set fire to the homes of civilians.

"The Pilgrim children's shelter in Mariupol, belonging to the neo–Nazi Ukrainian group Azov, is a prototype of what the Nazis wanted to make Ukraine and what it would inevitably have become if it had not been for the beginning of a special operation by the Russian Armed Forces," said the former (until 2014) adviser to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Deputy head of the main Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in the Zaporozhye Region A.Selivanov. This is the opinion of a man who served in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to him, "Pilgrim" is a picture of the whole Ukraine. According to him, that is why the shelter, in which children were converted into militants, is a vivid confirmation that something needs to be done radically with this Ukrainian project at all costs.

These facts are clear evidence of Ukraine's violation of its obligations under the Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child on the involvement of children in armed conflict. Upon ratification of this international treaty in 2005, Ukraine stated that the minimum age for voluntary (on a contractual basis) entry into the ranks of the national armed forces is 19 years.

Russia calls on relevant international organizations (the UNO, OSCE), as well as the Special Representative of the UN Secretary General for Children and Armed Conflict to pay special attention to Kiev's actions to involve children in the criminal activities of neo-Nazi organizations and the spread of radical ideas among minors.

Do not pretend that these children in February 2022, feeling a surge of patriotism, went to the barricades. They have been trained for war for many years. And the militants of the nationalist battalions did it.

3. New evidence made by foreign mercenaries on the Ukrainian staged provocation at Bucha

On May 12, Frenchman Andrian Boke, who previously served in the rifle units of the French army, after returning from Ukraine gave a video interview to SUD Radio, broadcasting throughout France and Andorra. In it, he described in detail the events he personally saw taking place in the area of the locality of Bucha, Kiev Region. Bokeh, who was with a volunteer mission directly among the fighters of the Azov nationalist faction,  witnessed many war crimes committed by them. He managed not only to record the facts of neo-Nazi crimes, but also to take these materials home. Thus, the statements of the French volunteer confirm the storage of incoming Western weapons in the basements of residential buildings, the torture and murder of Russian prisoners of war, as well as the activities of foreign media to produce fake materials aimed at discrediting the Russian military.

Andrian Boke witnessed a bloody staging of the alleged shooting of civilians by voluntarily retreating Russian troops from Bucha, carried out by the "Azovites" with the support of Western instructors. To prepare the frames presented as evidence, the corpses of people who had died earlier were purposefully brought to the streets of the city by Ukrainian ‘script-writers’.

In addition, the Frenchman was shocked by the widespread spread of Nazi symbols, which are openly applied to the uniforms of the Ukrainian military, both in the western and central parts of Ukraine, where he personally visited. He also witnessed conversations confirming the commitment of the representatives of the "Azov" to Nazi ideology, in particular, he heard calls for physical violence not only against Russians, but also Jews and Blacks.

​​​​​​​[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7Lwfk2Yxis]

The testimony of the British mercenary Andrew Hill, who surrendered to the People's militia of the DPR, can be considered confirmation of the words of Andrian Boke. At the moment, he is in the Donetsk People's Republic, where he is undergoing treatment after being injured. During the investigation, Andrew said: "We were sent to Bucha after the Russians left there. We have not been to Bucha itself, only on its outskirts." According to him, the events took place on April 3-5. He added that he had not personally seen any corpses or anything like that, everything looked untouched in Bucha after Russian troops left that city.

​​​​​​​[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIoCnTYCe1s]

Another proof of the faked news related to Buch ‘tragedy’

In the bodies of the civilians killed and brought by the Ukrainian military into the city of Bucha after the Russian troops left the settlement, flechettes (a specially shaped  shrapnel; see photo below) were found that look like small metal darts used as striking elements of certain types of artillery shells with the aim to kill more people.

Such flechettes are placed into 122-mm "3SH1" shells for the D-30 howitzer, which have been removed from service in the Russian army and completely replaced with the 152-mm Msta-B howitzer. On the contrary, this type of artillery systems is one of the main ones in the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

At the beginning of the Russian special military operation, Ukraine had more than 350 D-30 howitzers and an extensive supply of shells for them. They are also armed with the 4th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, operating in the Kiev-Zhytomyr direction. During March 2022, it was this compound that repeatedly inflicted artillery strikes on Russian units that took control and deployed in the settlements of the Buchansky district of the Kiev Region.​​​​​​​

 


If Ursula Gertrud von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission,  and Josep Borrell, serving as High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, knew beforehand about such blatant lie orchestrated and staged by Ukrainian troops at Bucha (they both have been shown some corpses in plastic bags during their visit there) they would have never visited that place.

But they have been deceived for just one reason: to show them a prefabricated lie to urge them to allocate more money on the Ukrainian aggression against people who do not want to live in a nationalist state called Ukraine


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 68. Russian Defense Minister on Ukrainian nukes

May 24th, 2022

1. Russian DefMin Shoigu warns of the Ukrainian NW development’s threat

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu stated during a meeting of the ministers of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) member-states on May 24th that there was a real threat of Ukraine manufacturing nuclear weapons and the means of their delivery.

He added that Moscow had already obtained evidence proving that Kiev violated international agreements by taking part in the development of another type of weapon of mass destruction. "A network of more than 30 biological laboratories involved in the U.S. military biological programme was created [in Ukraine]. Documents show that the research [in these laboratories] was carried out secretly in violation of international obligations," he stated. Shoigu further said that components of biological weapons had been manufactured near Russian borders. According to him, methods of destabilising epidemiological situation in Russia were also studied in these biolabs.

The Russian defence minister also stressed during the CSTO meeting that Western countries have urgently organized supplies of lethal weapons, as well as a massive global disinformation campaign fearing the imminent defeat of Ukrainian forces. He shared that as many as 6,000 foreign mercenaries had arrived in Ukraine for the same purposes. Many of them have been killed or captured. Those who have been detained will be sent to trials.

Shoigu accused NATO of trying to turn Ukraine into a state that was hostile towards Russia, using it as a tool to pressure Moscow. He noted that at the same time, Western countries turn a blind eye to the existence of neo-Nazism in Ukraine and receive the leaders of the nationalist units, which had committed atrocities, with honours.

He announced that Russian troops slowed down their movement to give civilians a chance to be evacuated from combat areas. Shoigu also elaborated that the recent reduction in the tempo of the special operation was voluntary as Russia wanted to give the residents of settlements and cities near the frontlines the opportunity to evacuate through the humanitarian corridors.In many areas kin Ukraine humanitarian corridors have been set up.

The minister stated that Russia will continue the special military operation in Ukraine, which had been launched three months ago, until all of its goals are achieved. He noted that West's aid to Kiev's regime will not affect it.

2.  Russian Foreign Minister explained Russia’s geopolitical strategy

Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister addressed the students on May 24th about Russia's economic and political plans, and future relations with the West. Commenting on the developments in Ukraine, he said that Moscow had tried to resolve the Donbass crisis by urging Kiev to implement the Minsk Accords (2015), but the West only pretended to care about the talks, and instead “encouraged the arrogant position of the Kiev regime.”


Kiev has violated all 13 paragraphs of the Minsk accord, shelled Donbass for nearly eight years with heavy weapons, and massed 59 thousand troops near Donbass by February 14th, 2022 with the aim to attack it exactly on March 8th, 2022.

 NATO has never criticized Kiev for all these acts

 


Now the West is “reacting furiously” to Russia defending its “absolutely legitimate, fundamental interests,” Lavrov said. Western leaders “shout slogans” and declare they must “defeat Russia,” or make Russia “lose on the battlefield,” without understanding the history or nature of Russia, he added.

Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has stated that Kiev had “preferred to forget” about Russia's settlement plan on Ukraine. “Ukraine itself does not want to negotiate at all. They have long preferred to forget about the Russian draft peace treaty. It was as if it didn't exist at all. Kiev only relies on the flow of weapons and money from Western countries. War to the bitter end,” Medvedev wrote in his Telegram channel on May 24th.

He also commented on Italy’s settlement plan on Ukraine, describing it as “a pure stream of consciousness that does not take into account realities”. According to him, “there is a feeling that it was prepared not by diplomats, but by local political scientists who have read provincial newspapers and only use Ukrainian fake news.”

3. Ukraine will lose its sovereignty to Poland

During his recent visit of Andrzej Duda, Polish President, to Kiev, it was announced by Ukrainian leaders that Polish citizens will enjoy the full rights to be nominated into any high Ukrainian governmental positions, to be involved in a decision-making process, and to get very sensitive classified Ukrainian information under special bilateral accord. 


If it happens, Ukraine that has already lost part of its independence generously shared with the USA and NATO/EU,

will be de facto and de jure politically, economically and militarily

a colony of all these nations.


4. Henry Kissinger warns of deadline for Ukraine peace settlement

The conflict with Russia must end in two months or it will spiral out of control, the veteran statesman warned

There is a small window of opportunity to wind down the armed conflict in Ukraine and find a peace settlement, former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has told a gathering of Western elites in Davos, Switzerland. Beyond that, Russia may break from, the rest of, Europe for good and become a permanent ally of China, he said on Monday during a speech at the World Economic Forum.

“Negotiations on peace need to begin in the next two months or so, [before the conflict] creates upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome,” the 98-year-old veteran diplomat said of the crisis. The outcome will determine the rest of Europe’s relationships with Russia and Ukraine alike, he said. “Ideally, the dividing line should return to the status quo ante,” he said.

“I believe pursuing the war beyond that point would turn it not into a war about the freedom of Ukraine, which had been undertaken with great cohesion by NATO, but into a war against Russia itself,” he added.

Kissinger recalled that eight years ago, when the Ukrainian crisis was launched with an armed coup in Kiev, he advocated for Ukraine to become a neutral state and a “bridge between Russia and Europe rather than… a frontline of groupings within Europe.”

On the other hand, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his speech in Davos asked for more deadly weapons for Kiev. To get them is useless and irrational. It is useless because all military weapons and equipment sent to a failed Ukrainian regime are gradually destroyed by Russian pin-point accurate weapons. It is irrational of buying them because the succeeding generations of Ukrainians will pay back tremendous amount of money to its suppliers.

5. Russia comments on Ukrainian prisoner exchanges

Swapping Azov fighters for Ukraine opposition leader Medvedchuk out of the question, Kremlin says. Prisoner exchanges are the purview of the military, which means that any possible requests to swap Ukrainian captives from the Azovstal plant in Mariupol, for Russian POWs, would have to go through the defense ministry, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on May 23rd.

Medvedchuk led the biggest opposition faction in the Ukrainian parliament before the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky launched a crackdown on its opponents. The politician is currently in the custody of the SBU, Ukraine’s domestic security agency.

When asked by journalists about jailed Ukrainian opposition leader Viktor Medvedchuk, he reiterated that Russia had no intention of doing a swap, despite the politician’s request for such action. “Medvedchuk is a Ukrainian citizen who has nothing to do with Russia and is not military,” Peskov told the media. Ukrainian soldiers and members of the Neo-Nazi Azov National Guard unit “are a different category” he added.

6. Situation on the battlefield

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) continue shelling Donbass populated areas where there are no military facilities. During such attacks several civilians are killed and wounded. More and more people in Ukraine became full supporters of the Russian troops and express their indignation over the Kiev regime who has brought the country into a formidable and total disaster.

On the other hand, during an operation related to counterbattery defence, a battery of Russian self-propelled Giatsint-S howitzers destroyed unit of U.S.-made 155 mm M-777 towed howitzers. They are also capable to destroy the strongpoints, the fortifications, the vehicles and the manpower of the enemy, as well as the firing positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

High-precision air-based missiles have hit 3 command posts, 36 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration, 1 self-propelled artillery division of the 14th Mechanized Brigade near Soledar, as well as 6 ammunition depots in Minkovka, Bakhmut, Nikolaevka, Spornoe and Krasnyi Liman in the Donetsk People's Republic, including 1 large depot of 155 mm shells for U.S. M-777 howitzer in Razdolovka..

Operational-tactical and army aviation have hit 2 command posts, 3 ammunition depots, 80 areas of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 1 Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile system near Pilipchatino in the Donetsk People's Republic. The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 210 nationalists and up to 31 armoured and motor vehicles.

Also, Russian Air Force have shot down 1 Ukrainian MiG-29 aircraft near Kramotorsk in the Donetsk People's Republic.

Missile troops and artillery have hit 84 command posts, 463 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 137 artillery and mortar units at firing positions. 13 tanks and armoured combat vehicles, 4 Grad multiple rocket launchers and 3 ammunition depots have been destroyed.

Russian air defence means have shot down 5 unmanned aerial vehicles in Chernobaevka in Kherson Region, Dibrovnoe, Kamenka, Pitomnik and Malye Prokhody in Kharkov Region. In addition, 4 Ukrainian Smerch multiple-launch rockets have been intercepted over Topolskoe, Semenovka and Sukhaya Kamenka in Kharkov Region.


In total, from February 24th 2022 till now 178 Ukrainian aircraft and 125 helicopters, 995 unmanned aerial vehicles, 320 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,243 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 425 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,658 field artillery and mortars, as well as 3,124 special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.


 


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

 

 

 

Report # 69. Foreign merchant ships can leave demined Mariupol port

May 25th, 2022

1. The Azov Sea and Mariupol port have been demined completely

While demining the territory of the Azovstal plant, Russian engineering units started to clear the Azov Sea coastline adjacent to the port of Mariupol. Engineering works at the coastline are held by the professionals of the International Mine Action Centre.

Sappers detected and neutralized unexploded devices left by Ukrainian troops. All the projectiles and mines have been exploded in situ. Uran-6 robotic demining systems are widely used during the mine clearance operations.


Sappers have already explored more than 50 km of the Azov Sea coastline and neutralized more than 300 munitions.

In total, the professionals of the International Mine Action Centre have already destroyed more than 6,000 explosive remnants since the start of their operation at the territory of the Lugansk People's Republic.


As a result of the measures taken by the Russian Navy, the mine threat in the waters of the port of Mariupol has been eliminated and measures are being taken to restore the port infrastructure.

The Russian Federation has opened a humanitarian “blue water corridor” of 115 miles long and 2 miles wide from the Azov Sea in the direction to the Black Sea is organized for the safe passage of foreign vessels from Mariupol port from 08.00AM  to 07:00PM (Moscow time) daily from May 25, 2022.

Detailed information in English and Russian on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridor is broadcast daily every 15 minutes on VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels in English and Russian.

At the same time, the Kiev authorities continue to avoid engaging with representatives of states and ship-owning companies to resolve the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area. The danger to navigation from Ukrainian mines drifting off their anchors along the coasts of Black Sea states remains.

Nevertheless, 70 foreign vessels from 16 countries remain blocked in 6 Ukrainian ports (Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhniy). The threat of shelling and high mine danger posed by official Kiev prevents these vessels from entering the high seas unhindered.

The Russian Federation is taking a full range of comprehensive measures to ensure the safety of civilian navigation in the waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

Demining detachments of the Russian Armed Forces and the EMERCOM of Russia are carrying out land and facility clearance tasks in the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics. A total of 1,721.28 hectares were checked (including 98.07 hectares during the day), 35 buildings (including 13 socially important facilities), 1 bridge and 9.64 km of roads. 9,564 explosives were detected and defused.

2. Humanitarian situation

The humanitarian situation in regions under the control of the Kiev authorities is rapidly deteriorating and approaching a critical level. According to the UN Children's Fund, there are 8.7 million hungry people in Ukraine, with 22.8 per cent of children under the age of five suffering from malnutrition. At the same time, the Kiev regime, despite acute food shortages and the threat of a food crisis, neglecting the welfare of its own people, is "ready for anything" to please countries of the collective West, which, hypocritically claiming humanitarian support, seek to export grain from Ukraine as quickly as possible through the so-called "solidarity corridors" engaged by the European Union, with absolutely no concern about what will happen in the country after the emptying of Ukrainian grain storage facilities.


Zelensky not realizing de facto the present and future situation

 with food in Ukraine began to deliver nearly 20 million tons of grain abroad as payback for Western lethal weapons used vs Ukrainians and Russians


All this is happening against the background of the unceasing hysteria of the "civilised West" and their false accusations against the Russian Federation of artificially creating a food crisis in the world. Such crisis has been created by illegal and destructive sanctions imposed by the USA and the EU countries.

According to information received from captured Ukrainian servicemen, SSU officers, at the instigation of Western handlers, prepared another provocations at grain storage facilities, following a previously practiced scenario in Rubizhnoe in Lugansk People's Republic and Orekhovoe in the Zaporozhye region, in order to accuse Russian servicemen of allegedly indiscriminate strikes against civilian infrastructure:

Nationalist militants in Prosyanaya, Dnepropetrovsk Region, have booby-trapped the Prosyanaya grain elevator, which they plan to blow up in the near future in Vrubovka in Lugansk People's Republic, the Ukrainian Armed Forces deployed MLRS systems on the territory of a grain-processing plant.

Such actions by Ukrainian nationalists imitate the tactics of the "scorched-earth" by the Nazis during the Great Patriotic War and contravene all generally accepted moral norms and principles of international humanitarian law.

3. Evacuation of civilians

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles imposed by the Ukrainian side, over the past day, without the participation of Kiev, 17,586 people were evacuated from dangerous areas, 2,246 of them children to Russia.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 1,444,565 people have already been evacuated to the Russian territory, of which 240,575 are children. The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 199,422 personal vehicles including 3,722 over the past 24 hours.

More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centres continue to operate in the regions of the Russian Federation. The refugees are dealt with on an individual basis and are promptly assisted with various pressing issues relating to onward accommodation, employment assistance, places for children in kindergartens and educational institutions, and the provision of entitlements to social benefits.

Over the past 24 hours, the hotline of the Interdepartmental Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, federal executive authorities, constituent entities of the Russian Federation and various NGOs received 109 requests from foreign and Ukrainian citizens to evacuate to Russia, the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, as well as to the Russian Armed Forces-controlled areas of Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, Kharkov and Kherson regions.

Since March 2nd, 22,430.8 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 1,048 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 3 actions in Kharkov and Kherson regions, as well as in Donetsk People's Republic, during which 510.4 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

On May 24th, 2022, 4 humanitarian actions have been planned and are currently being carried out in Kharkov and Kherson regions, in Donetsk People's Republic.

On May 25th President Vladimir Putin signed the decree on arranging Russian citizenship to residents of Kherson and Zaporoznie Regions in a simplified way. It came into force the same day

4. Situation on the battlefield

The detained AFU units and Azov nationalist factions confessed that they have been betrayed by the Kiev rulers. They claim that Ukrainian leaders have abandoned them Their morale and combat spirit are very low. Their human losses are very high.

On the other hand, high-precision long-range air- and sea-based missiles in Zaporozhye have destroyed the production facilities of Motor Sich plant, which produced aircraft engines for combat aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force, including UAVs.

Units of the AFU reserve deployed to reinforce the grouping of Ukrainian troops in Donbass have been destroyed near Pokrovskoe railway station in Dnepropetrovsk Region.

Russian high-precision air-based missiles have hit: 3 command posts, including 1 command post of the 14th Mechanised Brigade and 1 communications hub in Vrubovka and Bakhmut; 1 AFU radio technical centre near Dneprovskoe, Nikolaev Region; 1 logistics centre of the 72nd Motorised Infantry Brigade near Soledar; 2 fuel bases in Kovyagin and Bezlyudovka, Kharkov Region; 2 air defence radar posts and military equipment at a storage base near Bakhmut; and 16 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration during the day.

Operational-tactical and army aviation have hit 2 missile-artillery weapons and ammunition depots near Dolina in Kharkov Region and Posad-Pokrovskoe in Nikolaev Region, the territorial defence headquarters in Soledar and 46 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration. The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 300 nationalists and up to 46 armoured and motor vehicles.

Russian air defence means have shot down 1 Mi-8 helicopter of the Ukrainian Air Force over Barmashovo, Nikolaev Region.

Also, 11 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down in the air near Snake Island, Glubokoe, Pershotravnevoe, Bolshie Prokhody, Kharkiv Region, and Verhnetoretskoe, Stavki, Terny, including 1 Bayraktar TB-2 near Shandrigolovo, Donetsk People's Republic.

Missile troops and artillery have hit 51 command posts, 385 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 53 artillery and mortar units at firing positions.


In total, 178 Ukrainian airplanes and 126 helicopters, 1,006 unmanned aerial vehicles, 322 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,258 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 430 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,671 field artillery and mortars, as well as 3,155 special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.


5. About “ruined” Russian economy and “soaring prices”

Photos taken at the ordinary local supermarket in the south of Moscow called “Perekrestok” (“Crossroad”). All prices are in Roubles. Exchange rate on May 25th, 2022 was: $ 1 = 56,96 Roubles. On February 23th, 2022 on the eve of the Russian special military operation the exchange rate was $1 = 80,41 Roubles. Since that time the food and pharmaceutical stocks have been filled in with food and medicine by 100 percent.

The prices for gasoline АI-92 (ordinary) = 46.37 Roubles per liter; АI-95 (premium) = 50.17 Roubles per liter; АI-98 (super) = 58.05 Roubles per liter and for disel DТ =: 51.3 Roubles per liter.



 

 


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 7. NATO and the USA have put nuclear arms on full alert near Russia and Ukraine

 
1. The troops of DPR and LPR, with the fire support from the Russian Armed Forces, expanded the areas of the breakthrough in the enemy's defense during the day and continued to develop the success of the offensive.
 
The troops of the Luhansk People's Republic advanced to a depth of 30 kilometers. Military units of the Donetsk People's Republic travelled another 6 kilometers.
 
Nationalist battalions, retreating, blow up electric power stations and bridges across rivers behind them.
 
The units of the Russian Armed Forces have established full control over the city of Melitopol.
 
Russian servicemen are taking all measures to ensure the safety of civilians and exclude provocations by Ukrainian special services and nationalists.
 
During the night, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation struck with high-precision long-range weapons using air- and sea-based cruise missiles at the targets of the Ukrainian military infrastructure. The fire is conducted only on the objects of the military infrastructure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, excluding damage to residential and social infrastructure.
 
In total, the Russian Armed Forces hit 821 targets of the military infrastructure of Ukraine.
 
Among them: 14 military airfields, 19 control and communication centers, 24 S-300 and Osa anti-aircraft missile systems, 48 radar stations.
 
Downed: 7 combat aircraft, 7 helicopters, 9 unmanned aerial vehicles, 87 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 28 multiple rocket launchers, 118 units of special military vehicles were destroyed.
 
Russian Navy destroyed 8 military boats of the Ukrainian Navy.
 

2.  Russia has NOT used and is NOT going to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine and in Donbass.

The Upper House (Senate) of the Russian Parliament gave the President the right to use only non-nuclear weapons (conventional arms) in liberating Donbass and in demilitarizing Ukraine that started February 14-17 the third armed aggression vs Donbass.
 
At the same time many anti-nuclear and anti-war organizations in NATO states do not realize the obvious facts and do not make critical remarks to:
 
a) concentration of the U.S. eight heavy strategic bombers B-52H landed in the UK and the Czech Republic;
 
b) the U.S. strategic nuclear ICBM have 99% alert status; Heavy SOA bombers are on full alert (some of them are in Europe); Strategic nuclear subs (SSBN) that are in the World Oceans on patrol are 100% ready to launch SLBMs;
 
c) increase of DCA (dual capable aircraft) with tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) in Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia in the framework of NATO Air Force Baltic Policing Operation, and in Romania (NATO AF Enhanced Air Policing Operation),
 
d) the U.S. TNW in the FRG, Belgium, the Netherlands and Italy have been elevated up to the highest readiness.
        
Dead silence over these facts in the West is encouraging NATO nuclear weapon states to rely on NW.
 
P.S. The Chernobyl NPP area is patrolled together by the Russian and friendly Ukrainian Armed Forces. The level of radiation there is normal.
 
12.000 assault rifles distributed freely (without IDs) after Zelensky's order amongst Kiev's residents have led to robbery and killings of civilians in the streets. By evening, February 26, so far 66 persons have been killed.
 
Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 70. A caveat: if Poland intervenes into Ukraine militarily, Russia will not sit idle

May 27, 2022

It is not ‘highly likely’. It is a reality.

Poland is actively looking for a way to "correctly" annex Western Ukraine so that it would not have to pay off Ukrainian debts or not receive a serious military response from Russia. The Poles believe that they are returning the original Polish territories: the Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk, and Vinnytsa Regions, inherited by Ukraine after World War II. The German territories, which were surrendered to Poland by the same agreement, and by the same logic should be returned to the FRG.

Warsaw is taking specific steps to achieve its intended goal in several directions at once. Poland is among the leaders in providing support to Ukraine, being the largest logistics hub for Western military assistance to Kyiv and sending into Ukraine ‘soldiers of fortune. At the same time, Warsaw is increasing defense spending and is firmly in favor of strengthening the transatlantic link. Several times high-ranking Polish officials –   active and former – insisted to acquire the U.S. nuclear weapons, the idea being enthusiastically supported by the U.S. Ambassador to Warsaw. The same frantic idea was publicly articulated by Zelensky at the 2022 Munich Security Conference

The loudest calls to impose anti-Russian sanctions come also from Poland. In confirmation of its commitment to its position, Poland terminated the gas supply agreement with Gazprom ahead of schedule, and pretended that it does not need Russian natural gas at all. The Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita reported that Poland cannot find an alternative to Russian gas, and will receive it in reversed way from Germany, which will lead to a sharp increase in prices for this fuel in the Polish economy. But, it is its choice, rather than Russian intention.

The Polish Foreign Ministry declared …

The Polish MFA declared that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine poses a clear threat to the existence of the latter as an independent state. Realizing that the sooner the negotiation process moves from the deadlock, the better chances Kiev has to preserve its sovereignty, Poles do not stop calling on to the Ukrainian authorities not to hammer out any compromise with Russia under any circumstances.

The efforts of Polish diplomats have already prompted the Ukrainian president Zelensky to announce a bill that equate the rights Poles with Ukrainians in Ukraine, giving them the same rights, except for the right to vote in the Ukrainian nation-wide elections, that it is not enough for Warsaw to take control of the territories of Western Ukraine. Kiev has also permitted Polish citizens to occupy top official positions in Ukraine, and fill in the local power structures with its appointees, and to get full clearance for getting a highly sensitive classified Ukrainian state information.

To this end, activities are actively carried out to introduce Polish advisers and specialists in all spheres of the Ukrainian governmental administrative, economic, financial and military structures. It is noteworthy that the menus of Western Ukrainian restaurants are already being prepared in Ukrainian and Polish languages. But this measure produces no harm compared with other vast administrative and many other rights generously offered by inadequate Zelensky to Warsaw. Obviously, with just one aim: to save inevitably crumbling Ukrainian leaders from a disaster and total irreparable military defeat. Economic and financial disaster in Ukraine has already voluntarily achieved.

Can Ukraine loose it independence?   

What will be the result of such ‘brotherhood’-type steps made by Kiev?  To transform Ukraine into what?  Into a new Polish protectorate or a colony of Poland?  By pursuing a policy of “soft and hard power”, Poland is working out a specially camouflaged scenario. The Poles are pushing NATO to send a peace-keeping contingents to Ukraine, equipped with heavy weapons – unlike normal peace-keepers sanctioned by the UN Security Council.

. The USA and many transatlantic Alliance’s member states have already sent too many ‘advisers’ and “instructors” with the aim to kill Ukrainians and Russians in Ukraine by deadly weapons.  Deliberately, with commitment. The Russian and Ukrainian citizens will remember such barbaric acts for ever.

It will be a new occupation of Ukraine. Now by Poland. The last one took place for several years during its German Nazi occupation in 1941-1944.

Poland is going to do the same under the guise of the alleged peacekeeping mission ‘for maintaining security’. Despite the refusal received, Warsaw continues to insist on the need for the participation of its military contingent in the “defense” of Ukraine from “Russian aggression” though the third aggression versus Donbass was launched not by Russia, but by Kiev from 2014 till 2022. It has to be reminded of Ukrainian military shelling of civilians in Donbass for nearly eight successive years, when 13,000 civilians have been killed and 34,000 wounded by the indiscriminatory fire prohibited by the Minsk Accords of 2014-2015. Under the guise of conducting exercises, the Polish Armed Forces are forming task force groups near the borders with Ukraine and Belarus, and are staffing logistic support units to a full-fledged wartime status.

The direct annexation of Western Ukrainian territories and their incorporation into the Polish Republic is unlikely to be approved by the European community.

Russian response

First, It will be strongly condemned by the Russian Federation. Based on this, the Polish ‘swallowing Ukraine’ scenario creates a new third formidable security threat to Europe – the first one: moving the U.S. tactical nuclear weapons from 1953 and the U.S. missile defense systems from 2011 as a forward-based capabilities on the European continent, and the second one: after Kiev deployed nearly 60,000 troops’ near Donbass with intension ‘to coventrate’ completely it in mid-February-beginning of March 2022.

Parrying opponents' questions about the scale of Russia's response, the Poles proceed from the fact that the country has the status of a NATO member and the "main ally" of the USA in the ‘Eastern front’ in the Eastern Europe. However, all Polish scenarios for the division and disintegration of Ukraine will pose a threat to the Russian Federation, which will subsequently be neutralized because of internationalization of the conflict created by NATO and implemented in the form of a Ukrainian proxy war.

The successful implementation of the peaceful takeover of the Western Ukrainian regions can go in further claims to all the territories in the Eastern Europe that will affect the interests of Russia's main ally in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, namely, Belarus. Obviously, Poland's irrelevant actions are not aimed at the speedy settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but at the realization of its territorial claims, even by involving Europe in a direct military confrontation with Russia.

No doubt: the participation of the Polish military contingent in hostilities on the side of Ukraine on the Ukrainian soil will inevitably lead to Russian retaliatory military strikes.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

 

Report # 72. A triple jubilee: why to remember?

May 29th, 2022

1. Three anniversaries

At the end of May 2022 it was 50 years since the signing of three treaties between Moscow and Washington that to a certain extent marked the beginning of the arms control system and helped to strengthen strategic stability in the world. These treaties are: May 26, 1972 ABM treaty and the Interim Agreement between the USA and the USSR on measures to limit strategic offensive arms, known as SALT I signed at the same date, and bilateral Agreement on prevention of incidents on and over high seas or in short known as INCSEA accord reached on May 25 the same year.

Their main short substances

What is the main feature of these three treaties?

They all have one thing in common: they all relate to agreements reached in the field of international arms control mechanisms.

At the same time, each of them has a specific and distinctive purpose, as their name implies. For example, the ABM Treaty established the most acceptable balance between the strategic offensive and strategic defensive arms of the parties on the assumption that neither party could protect its territory with a limited number of interceptors of the ABM system. Such a measure, according to the initiators of this arrangement, would prevent the first attacker from defending against a massive nuclear missile retaliatory strike. The foundation of strategic stability between the Soviet Union and the United States was based on this notion at that time.

The SALT I agreement called for limiting the number of land- and sea-based ballistic missiles and launchers of both sides to the level they were at the time of its signing. The document forbade the construction of additional fixed launchers for ICBMs beginning July 1, 1972. The parties pledged to limit SLBM launchers and then modern submarines with SLBMs to their number in service and under construction as of the date of signing of the accord.

The Agreement on prevention of incidents on and over high seas prohibited dangerous rapprochement of naval and air vessels of the USSR and the USA while moving in the World Oceans or in the international airspace. Thus, it legally enshrined the then mutual interest of Moscow and Washington to ensure the safety of naval and air vessels in international waters beyond the outer limits of the parties' territorial waters or in the airspace above them.

All three accords have been very useful

They all have been clearly mutually beneficial.

 For example, the ABM Treaty, which the Soviet and U.S. leaders at that time said was the cornerstone of strategic stability, limited the missile defense arms race. At first, this treaty limited the number of interceptor missiles for each side to 200, deployed in two permitted areas of the "missile defense shield." But later, under a Protocol to it signed in 1974, Moscow and Washington reduced the number of such areas to one, with no more than 100 interceptor missiles for each party.

The SALT I and subsequent SALT II agreements put a halt to the nuclear arms race and became the basis for a whole new category of treaties, such as START I (1991), START II (1993), the Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty (SORT) (2002), and START III (2010). All of them resulted in a gradual reduction of the number of the parties' strategic nuclear missiles, and later in a reduction of their qualitative characteristics, for example, by prohibiting for a certain period of time the installation of MIRVs on one ICBM, reducing their number of mounted warheads (MIRV) to one. In other words, they turned them into a single warhead missile.

As a result of the long negotiation process and gradual dynamics of reductions of strategic nuclear weapons, the total number of strategic nuclear warheads, as well as their carriers and launchers has been significantly reduced in comparison with the initial "ceilings" of the created strategic nuclear weapons.

In particular, the START-III Treaty, the validity of which has been extended until 2026, provides for keeping in the strategic nuclear missile balance of each party 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads and 800 deployed and non-deployed ICBMs and SLBMs, as well as their heavy strategic bombers.

Finally, the U.S.-Soviet Agreement on prevention of incidents on and over high seas  has led to a reduction in the number of dangerous approaches of the parties' warships and support vessels on the World Oceans and high seas, as well as their combat aircraft in the airspace above them. It also served as the basis for similar agreements of the Soviet Union, and later Russia, reached with the world's leading naval and air power states, both NATO members (e.g., the UK, Italy, France, Germany and some others) and non-members of the transatlantic Alliance (e.g., Japan and South Korea).

On the basis of such agreements, periodic review meetings of the delegations of the member states were initiated and began to be held in order to analyze the progress of their implementation and to resolve any practical issues that sometimes arose.

Unfortunately, the INCSEA agreement does not apply to the submarines of the two sides that are submerged. Due to the fault of the American side, which sent its nuclear-powered SSBNs and SSNs to the combat training zones of the Northern Fleet of the USSR and later Russian Navy, there were several cases of their collision with Soviet/Russian submarines under water. The U.S. side has repeatedly rejected the Russian initiative to extend the provisions of such an agreement to submarines of the two sides in the submerged positions of the parties to the arrangement.

It is known that two of the three named treaties have ceased to exist: the ABM Treaty was unilaterally and initially denounced by the American side in 2002, and the SALT I agreement ceased to exist when it expired and was replaced by the subsequent SALT II accord.

Is the future in arms control bright or not?

Pentagon apparently will not give up further development of American global "antimissile shield" both in quantitative aspect, that is by means of increasing the total stock of interceptor missiles, mainly sea-based, and in qualitative aspect – due to improvement of their guidance accuracy, increase of flight speed and fitting them with individual guided reentry vehicles.

On the other hand, Russia now has effective means to overcome the global U.S. missile defense system from practically any direction. These capabilities will level out the U.S. ballistic and cruise missile interception infrastructure, despite the enormous sums of money that the USA has allocated to creating an multi-layered ground, sea and space-based missile defense system.

In the current situation Russia has to be very cautious about addressing the multifaceted problem of arms control, given that Washington is ready, as it has demonstrated more than once, at any time to withdraw from any agreement that it does not like for whatever reason.

Unfortunately, today, when the U.S. ruling circles have set their sights on the destruction of Russia, and statements about the admissibility of nuclear war are appearing in Washington, there is no point in even talking about any new agreement in the arms control system. Although it is quite obvious that the world has found itself, figuratively speaking, with a missile at its head’s temple  due to the fault of the West. Many countries have begun developing the latest types of weapons, including those in the "conventional" category, which are capable of delivering warheads to targets at hypersonic speeds while traveling at low altitudes, making them difficult to detect. In essence, the militarization of space has begun. The threat of the creation and proliferation of biological weapons is growing.

In short, the situation is developing according to an extremely dangerous scenario, fraught with the most unpredictable consequences for mankind. Earlier this year, the authorities in Kiev, who started talking about nuclear weapons, their accession to NATO, and their readiness to regain Crimea by military means, added fuel to the fire. The Ukrainian conflict needs to be resolved, based on the complete denazification and demilitarization of this country. And to do this, the West should stop all military assistance to the Kiev regime and force it to sit down at the negotiating table. NATO countries should constructively consider last December's proposals from Moscow on mutual security guarantees.

Only then Moscow will be able to talk about restoring trust and normalizing the situation, which will allow us to begin the process of negotiating further arms control, a crucial factor in strengthening international security and strategic stability.

Any practical success along this bumpy road, without exaggeration, will bring the well-being and survival of the entire humanity. For the benefits of all.

2. Humanitarian situation: planned provocation at Ukrainian Sumy

Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response of the Russian Federation continues to record the blatant facts of criminal actions by military personnel of the Ukrainian armed forces and militants of Ukrainian nationalist formations against civilians of Ukraine and the People's Republics of Donbass:

  1. in Lisichansk, Lugansk People's Republic, a stronghold of the Ukrainian armed forces has been equipped in a mountain technical school, with an ammunition depot in the basement and heavy weaponry in the surrounding area;
  2. in Slavaynsk, Donetsk People's Republic, nationalists have equipped firing positions in schools No 14 and No 20, armoured vehicles, large-calibre artillery and MLRS are placed in the surrounding area, and residents of nearby houses are forcibly detained in the premises of these educational institutions under the pretext of ensuring security;
  3. in Bakhmut, Donetsk People's Republic, AFU units and foreign mercenaries are stationed in kindergarten No 49 and school No 18, while checkpoints and firing points have been set up at the approaches to the buildings;
  4. in Karlovka, Donetsk People's Republic Ukrainian nationalists have equipped firing positions and ammunition depots on the lower and upper floors of apartment buildings on Gagarina Street. Local residents are forbidden to leave their flats, and all attempts by citizens to evacuate to safe areas are severely curtailed.

These facts once again demonstrate the Ukrainian authorities' complete disregard for the norms of morality and the provisions of international humanitarian law. All this is happening with the tacit consent of the "Russophobe-influenced" countries of the so-called collective West, which continue to turn a blind eye to the numerous war crimes of the Kiev regime.

In addition, according to information received from captured Ukrainian servicemen, militants of Ukrainian nationalist battalions are preparing another provocation with the use of toxic substances in the city of Sumy.

The neo-Nazis plan to shell Russian border territory from a residential area in the city and provoke Russian units to retaliate, after which they will blow up chemical tanks.

Foreign journalists are in Sumy to take photographs and video.

This cynical action will soon be used by the Kiev authorities to accuse the Russian Armed Forces of allegedly using chemical weapons and indiscriminate strikes on civilians.

Moreover, while previously in preparation for such provocations the civilian population was withdrawn from the area of planned contamination, now, in order to maximise the resonance, no warning was given to the population.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 73. Biden stopped sending a long-range MLRS to Kiev?

May 30, 2022

1. U.S. will not send Ukraine MLRS that can reach Russia, says Biden

According to Reuters,  the United States will not send Ukraine multiple launch rocket systems that can reach into Russia, President Joe Biden said on May 30, as Ukraine pushes for longer-range weapons system to help in its fight. "We're not going to send to Ukraine rocket systems that strike into Russia," Biden told reporters after arriving back at the White House after a weekend in Delaware.

Ukrainian officials have been asking allies for longer-range systems including the Multiple Launch Rocket System, or MLRS, that can fire a barrage of rockets hundreds of miles away.

To go by Reuters, Biden did not rule out providing any specific weapons system, but instead appeared to be placing conditions on how they could be used. He and his team are working on a new package of military equipment and it is expected to be announced in coming days.

There are four more questions to such Biden’s remarks:

a) are they genuine? b) did he mean GMLRS as M31 and HIMERS as M142 or something different? c) has he signed his order not to send them to Kiev? d) if these systems are not used against Russia, but can they be used versus Donbass and Crimea that Washington and Kiev do not recognize as independent states?

2. Europol concerned over fate of Western arms shipped to Ukraine

Europol head, Catherine De Bolle, has warned weapons currently being delivered to Ukraine could eventually end up in the hands of criminals operating on the continent.

In her interview with Germany’s Welt am Sonntag newspaper published at the end of May, De Bolle said that one of the things which were of concern to her organization was the “whereabouts of the weapons that are currently being delivered to Ukraine.” She explained that when the conflict ends, Europol wants to “prevent a situation akin to that of 30 years ago in the Balkan war.”

“The weapons from that war are still being used by criminal groups today,” she said.

De Bolle noted that one of Europol’s key priorities now was to “find a way in which we will deal with the situation after a possible end to the war.” According to her, Europol “will be assembling an international task force that will address this issue.”

At the same time she does not mention that all Western lethal heavy weapons are used indiscriminately versus civilians in Ukraine and are encouraging neo-Nazi there to commit more crimes than small groups of criminals in any state.

3. Ukraine needs $5 bln each month to cover the state budget deficit

Ukraine has received $ 6.5 billion in aid from Western countries since the start of Russia’s military operation in late February, said Kateryna Rozhkova, the first deputy head of the National Bank of Ukraine, but needs more help

“Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has received almost $6.5 billion from partner countries to support the economy,” Rozhkova stated on May 29.

The total includes both grants and loans, she explained, but did not specify how much Kiev would have to pay back. She also failed to announce how much the succeeding Ukrainian generations should pay back to the USA and NSATO as a whole for huge deliveries of arms and ammunition sent to the Kiev regimes that turned to be irrelevant and failed from the very beginning from 2014.

Rozhkova noted that Kiev cannot address its budget deficit on its own due to declining export earnings, while the recent downgrade of the country’s credit rating to pre-default is also a problem, as money cannot be borrowed on international markets due to the high cost of such loans. She failed to mention an enormous price tag for obtaining huge shipments of Western deadly weapons sent to Kiev.

According to the official, Ukraine needs at least $5 billion in aid each month to cover the state budget deficit.

4. Ukrainian troops are still active in pursuing genocide policy vs Donbass

Ukrainian troops and nationalist factions still continue shelling residential areas in Donbass deliberately choosing houses and social infrastructure and civilians.

The recent shelling of Donetsk has left at least five people dead, and 18 others injured, local authorities of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) said on May 30th. According to local officials, a teenage girl is among the fatalities. The strikes damaged several civilian facilities in the city, including schools and residential buildings.

Preliminary reports allege that US-supplied artillery may have been used in the attacks. In one home, two 14-year-old girls were hurt, Mayor Aleksey Kulemzin said. One of them died while the other one was taken to hospital. Three civilians were killed, and a dozen others injured at two schools, the mayor claimed. Two people were in serious condition, he added.

The DPR defense HQ said Ukrainian troops fired at least two Smerch rockets armed with cluster munitions prohibited by the international law and also used 155mm artillery in the shelling.

No Western leader or prominent international organizations have ever made critical remarks to such atrocities. Shame.

On May 30, Mayor Kulemzin said that the Ukrainian troops may have used US-supplied 155mm M777 howitzers in the assault. “This is heavy weaponry, most likely the American delivery,” he told Russian television when describing the attacks. He claimed some of the shell fragments discovered on the ground had markings in English.

Commenting on the news coming from Donetsk on Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Ukrainian attacks on civilian infrastructure in DPR were “outrageous.” “This is exactly what our warriors are fighting against. To make such things stop,” he said, branding the perpetrators “neo-Nazis”.

So, this is a vivid proof of personal President Biden’s interest in killing more and more civilians in Donbass with the aim to win a mid-term elections to the U.S Congress, and for the sake of having Nazi regime’s rule in Ukraine indefintely.

5. Situation on the battlefields

High-precision air-based missiles have hit 2 command and control posts of AFU battalions, 1 communications centre, as well as 34 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration.

Operational-tactical and army aviation have hit 3 strong points and 67 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration. The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 320 nationalists and 47 weapons and military equipment.

Russian air defence means have shot down 15 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Severodonetsk, Novochervonoe, Vasilevka of the Lugansk People's Republic, Panteleimonovka, Grigorovka, Krasnovka, Nevelskoe of the Donetsk People's Republic, Petrapolie, Petrovskoe, Glinskoe of Kharkov Region, Chornobaevka and Aleksandrovka of Kherson Region.

In addition, 9 Ukrainian Smerch multiple-launch rockets have been intercepted near Malaya Kamyshevakha, Kamenka, Brazhkovka, Glinskoe in Kharkov Region and Chernobaevka in Kherson Region.

Missile troops and artillery have hit 62 command posts, including those of Operational Command South near Novy Bug, Nikolaev Region, as well as 593 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration and 55 artillery and mortar batteries at firing positions.

4 BM-21 Grad multiple-launch rocket launchers, 46 Ukrainian weapons and military equipment, as well as 1 ammunition depot near Novomikhailovka, Donetsk People's Republic, have been destroyed.

Italian-made howitzers’ positions has been also destroyed.

In addition, more than 15 Ukrainian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles and 5 large-calibre artillery mounts have been destroyed as a result of artillery strike on a hangar on the territory of Okean [Ocean] shipyard in Nikolaev city.

In total, from February 24th, 2022 were destroyed during the Operation “Z”:

183 Ukrainian aircraft and 128 helicopters,

1,064 unmanned aerial vehicles,

325 anti-aircraft missile systems,

3,323 tanks and other armored combat vehicles,

451 multiple launch rocket systems,

1,731 field artillery and mortars,

as well as 3,294 special military vehicles.

 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 74. Baiden on Ukrainian case: drawing a red herring across the path

June 1st, 2022

1. On May 31, 2022 President Biden shared his opinion in The New York Times entitled: “What America Will and Will Not Do in Ukraine”

Joseph Biden and the Editorial Board of such prominent newspaper probably were thinking that he will persuade the world that the third Ukrainian massive aggression started from 2015 after the Minsk accord versus Donbas is a just act. Highly likely they thought that the Kiev regime sooner or later will win, and will be able to wipe out all Russia-speaking majority from that region, and regain Crimea with the aim to kick off all Russians from that peninsula.

It is wishful thinking, because it is impossible to bring it about.

First, Russia is still committed to reach its major goals in the “Operation Z”, and has enough military and economic power to liberate Ukraine from die-hard Nazism and limitless militarism.

Second, the problems with Joseph Biden’s revelations in The New York Times are not dealt with explaining something new. His stance is old: the Kiev regime should fight for “the last Ukrainian.”

Third, another setback of his remarks is that the expressed opinion lacks factual and political accuracy, and contains many controversies.

  E.g., he used the term: ‘Russian invasion into Ukraine”.

No, it has been Ukrainian invasion into Donbass whose citizens did not and do not want to live in the ultra-nationalist state with failed leaders who pursued and still pursues the policy of genocide against them from April 2014 till nowadays. In 2022 such active phase of the Ukrainian aggression began on February 14-17. That is before Moscow launched its defensive operation aimed at protecting the population of Donbass who have lost from 2014 till 2022 totally 14,000 civilians killed and 34,000 civilians wounded. All by Ukrainian rulers after the 2014 coup actively sponsored by the USA.

It is Ukraine who is still bombing of maternity hospitals and centers of culture, and forced millions of people to leave the country as refugees and to move into other areas as IDPs.

Joseph Biden claimed that: “We want to see a democratic, independent, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine with the means to deter and defend itself against further aggression.”

No, the USA does not wish to see such scenario.  Its goals are different – his Administration does not want to see Ukraine as “democratic, independent, sovereign and prosperous”, because Nazism cannot live and survive in a democratic, independent, sovereign and prosperous country. Nazism can live and survive only in a dictatorship-ruled climate and tyranny – with the ban on freedom of speech, with all opponent political parties outlawed, and its people staying in concentration camps and used as a human shield, etc.

The USA would like to continue a proxy war against Russia with the U.S. lethal weapons and by the hands Ukrainians. Namely, for the following reason Joseph Biden outlined in The New York Times: “We have moved quickly to send Ukraine a significant amount of weaponry and ammunition so it can fight on the battlefield and be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.”

He also clearly stated: “That’s why I’ve decided that we will provide the Ukrainians with more advanced rocket systems and munitions that will enable them to more precisely strike key targets on the battlefield in Ukraine. We will continue cooperating with our allies and partners on Russian sanctions, the toughest ever imposed on a major economy. We will continue providing Ukraine with advanced weaponry, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stinger antiaircraft missiles, powerful artillery and precision rocket systems, radars, unmanned aerial vehicles, Mi-17 helicopters and ammunition. We will also send billions more in financial assistance, as authorized by Congress”.

The U.S. leader mentioned “precision rocket systems” in the upper paragraph. But what kind of?  Be them M31 as GMLRS and M142 as HIMERS (see photo) with the maximum firing range of 500 km and 300 km, respectively? It has been announced that  that they will fire at the distance of no more than 80 km.

Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky also claimed that such American-made systems would not be employed against Russia.

But can this be verified by independent inspectors? Will such systems be used versus Donbass and Crimea, if they are not considered as Russian territories at all – both by Kiev and Washington?

The U.S. president insisted on formula that: “Ukraine’s talks with Russia are not stalled because Ukraine has turned its back on diplomacy”. Inaccurate view. Ukraine’s talks with Russia have stalled because the USA advised the puppet Kiev regime to freeze the talks with Moscow. One can notice: as soon as the USA and NATO send deadly heavy weapons to Ukraine, such talks simultaneously enter the abyss.

In Biden’s words, “We will also continue reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank with forces and capabilities from the United States and other allies.”

What for and against whom? And why Joseph Biden said later: “We do not seek a war between NATO and Russia”. Is it not a controversy? All existing U.S. five key national military strategies, namely NSS, NDS, NPR, MDS and Space Strategy, as well as all NATO Summits’ strategic concepts and declarations outlined and outlines firm intention to fight with Russia and to destroy it as an adversary.

The current American leader has correctly admitted that: “We currently see no indication that Russia has intent to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine… “. True. However, he further continued in the same sentence: “… though Russia’s occasional rhetoric to rattle the nuclear saber is itself dangerous and extremely irresponsible”.

Where has he seen or heard such rhetoric? From the cables of the U.S. Embassy based in Moscow? Or from any market-place whistle-blowers? Actually nowhere. If so, it is unprofessional job of his staffers and speech-writers.

Nobody in Russia – neither President Vladimir Putin, nor Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, nor Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have ever said that or even hinted that.

So, it is the USA and personally Mr. Joseph Biden, as well as his irrelevant pal Volodymir Zelensky are fully responsible for conducting a massive aggression in Europe versus Donbass – both for their selfish personal aims: to stay in power as long as they wish. In case of Biden two more goals: to secure the Democratic Party victory in the mid-term elections in upcoming November, and to give a boost to the national military-industrial complex harvesting billions of dollars. In case of Zelensky – one more and special: to collect millions of dollars and to build a lot of private villas in Florida, Israel and

In other places around the globe.

That is why recent Joseph Biden’s opinion on the Ukrainian developments expressed in the The New York Times looks like drawing a red herring across the path. Because nobody will find there any way out from the self-created impasse in that country he personally and his advisers have hammered out.

2. Humanitarian situation

The Russian Federation's Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response, in co-operation with the authorized federal executive authorities, continues to carefully record the continuing egregious facts of the inhumane treatment of civilians by the authorities in Kiev, and use of social infrastructure for military purposes by Ukrainian armed formations:

a) in Kharkov, Ukrainian Armed Forces and territorial defence units have equipped ammunition depots, artillery and MLRS on the premises of school No 81 on Krasnaya Alleya Street and the House of Culture on Plekhanovskaya Street, while local residents are being held in basements under the pretext of ensuring their safety. At the same time, the approaches to these buildings are booby-trapped, but the local population is deliberately not informed about this;

b) in Borovskoe, Lugansk People's Republic, Right Sector militants have equipped firing positions and sniper points in residential buildings. Local residents are forbidden to leave their flats, and all attempts by citizens to evacuate to safe areas are severely curtailed;

c) in Kramatorsk, Donetsk People's Republic, neo-Nazis and foreign mercenaries have placed heavy weapons on the premises of a boarding school on Vasiliya Stusa Street and equipped a stronghold and an ammunition depot in the building;

d) in Avdeevka, Donetsk People's Republic, AFU personnel are stationed on the ground floors of residential buildings, in school No 2 and the buildings of the TB dispensary, while civilians are forcibly detained in the basements.

Furthermore, in Kharkov Region, militants of the nationalist Kraken unit, formed mainly from radicals and released from prison rapists and murderers, conduct punitive raids in which so-called "death squads" at night break into the homes of local residents suspected by the SSU of pro-Russian sentiment, physically abuse them and take them away to an unknown destination. Dozens of the detainees never returned home, and their fate is still unknown. Such criminal actions and provocations on the part of the Kiev regime once again demonstrate Kiev's inhuman attitude towards the fate of its citizens and show complete disregard for the norms and principles of international humanitarian law.

By applying a policy of "double standards", the collective West has absolutely no interest in conducting an impartial investigation and finding those responsible for the current disastrous humanitarian situation in Ukraine, and in fact "turns a blind eye" to numerous violations of international conventions by the Ukrainian side, shifting the blame onto the Russian Federation without evidence.

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles imposed by the Ukrainian side, over the past day, without the participation of Kiev, 15,215 people were evacuated from dangerous areas, 1,806 of them children. Totally, since the beginning of the special military operation, 1,556,258 people have already been evacuated to Russia, of which 254,270 are children.

More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centres continue to operate in the regions of the Russian Federation. The refugees are dealt with on an individual basis and are promptly assisted with various pressing issues relating to onward accommodation, employment assistance, places for children in kindergartens and educational institutions, and the provision of entitlements to social benefits.

Over the past 24 hours, the hotline of the Interdepartmental Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, federal executive authorities, constituent entities of the Russian Federation and various NGOs received 85 requests from foreign and Ukrainian citizens to evacuate to Russia, the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, as well as to the Russian Armed Forces-controlled areas of Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, Kharkov and Kherson regions. In total there are 2,757,157 such appeals from 2,137 locations in Ukraine in the database.

Demining detachments of the Russian Armed Forces and the EMERCOM of Russia are carrying out land and facility clearance tasks in the territory of the DPR and LPR. A total of 2,581.94 hectares were checked (including 119.2 hectares during the day), 35 buildings (including 13 socially important facilities), 1 bridge and 9.64 km of roads. 12,685 explosives were detected and defused, 131 of them during the day.

Russian various NGOs, patriotic movements, continue to accumulate humanitarian aid. More than 27,000 tons of basic necessities and food kits, including baby food and life-saving medicines, have been prepared at collection points.

Since March 2nd, 24,342.3 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 1,078 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 5 actions in Kharkov and Zaporozhye Regions, as well as in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republic, during which 352 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

On May 30, 3 humanitarian actions have been planned and are currently being carried out in Kherson region, in Donetsk People's Republic, during which 309.8 tons of basic necessities, medicine and food will be distributed.

3. Situation at the Black and the Azov Seas

70 foreign vessels from 16 countries remain blocked in 6 Ukrainian ports (Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhniy). The threat of shelling and high mine danger posed by official Kiev that deployed them prevents vessels from entering the high seas unhindered. The danger to navigation from Ukrainian mines drifting off their anchors along the coasts of the Black Sea states remains.

The Russian Federation is taking a full range of comprehensive measures to ensure the safety of civilian navigation in the waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. As a result of the measures taken by the Russian Navy, the mine threat in the waters of the sea port of Mariupol has been eliminated and measures are being taken to restore the port infrastructure.

The Russian Armed Forces have created conditions for the operation of two maritime ‘blue-water’ humanitarian corridors, which are safe lanes for ships:

a) in the Black Sea - to leave Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhnyi ports in a south-westerly direction from Ukraine's territorial sea, 139 miles long and 3 miles wide;

b) in the Sea of Azov, to leave Mariupol port 115 miles long and 2 miles wide towards the Black Sea.

Detailed information in English and Russian on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridor is broadcast daily every 15 minutes on VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels in English and Russian.

At the same time, the Kiev authorities continue to avoid engaging with representatives of states and ship-owning companies to resolve the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report # 75. President Zelensky cannot be trusted by Russia

June 3rd, 2022

1. President Zelensky cannot be trusted not to use weapons to attack targets in Russia, Moscow says

Ukraine cannot be trusted to abide by Washington’s wishes and not use U.S.-supplied rocket launchers against targets in Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on June 1st.

Kiev has a poor record on keeping its word, the official claimed. Peskov was commenting on the U.S. decision to provide Ukraine with HIMRAS multiple rocket launchers. U.S. officials stated that the weapon systems would not be used against targets in Russia, arguing that this made Washington not a party to the Ukraine conflict. It is a direct party. The U.S.-made weapons kill a lot of people in Ukraine.

When asked about the promise, Peskov said Russia didn’t trust Zelensky to keep his word. Zelensky has been breaking his word throughout his relatively short political career, “starting with his main election campaign promise to put an end to the war in southeastern Ukraine,” Peskov clarified.

President Joseph Biden is not trusted in Russia either because he initiated sending enormous amount of heavy lethal weapons into Ukraine for destruction of the Slavic nations, their economy, religion and culture.

The Ukrainian ombudsperson, Lyudmila Denisova, has been removed from her post over spreading ‘fakes’ about Russian forces. The official has been accused of failing to perform her duties and in particular of spreading unverified information. Such actions only served to tarnish Ukraine’s image, MPs have argued. The ombudsperson had “hardly exercised her powers to organize humanitarian corridors” or prisoner exchanges, a Ukrainian MP, Pavel Frolov said. He criticized her for spending most of her time abroad as the conflict unfolded.

2. Humanitarian situation

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and Ukrainian nationalist formations are still acting against the Ukrainian civilians and the citizens of Donbass republics, and are hitting social infrastructure facilities for military purposes, including:

a) in Odessa, territorial defence units equipped weapons and ammunition depot in the lyceum building (Yelisavetinskaya Street) and trenches and a stronghold near the dormitory and school No. 56 (Tenistaya Street), without evacuating residents from nearby houses;

b) in Nikolaev, Ukrainian armed formations equipped barracks in schools No. 1 (Aivazovskogo Street) and No. 7 (Potemkinskaya Street), and in kindergarten No. 70 (Faleevskaya Street) and school No. 24 (Lesnaya Street) - warehouses with rockets for MLRS;

c) in Kramatorsk, Donetsk People's Republic, militants of the Ukrainian armed forces equipped strongholds on the territory of the Machine-Building College (Bolshaya Sadovaya Street) and general education schools No. 10 (Khabarovskaya Street) and No. 16 (Leonid Bykov Street), with armoured vehicles and large-calibre artillery placed in the adjoining territory;

d) in Slavyansk, Donetsk People's Republic, nationalists have equipped firing positions in the building of the vocational engineering lyceum (Koltsevaya Street) and placed artillery and MLRS in the courtyard.

The militants, knowing that civilians would be victims of such criminal actions, deliberately target Russian Armed Forces positions from residential areas, provoking them to return fire in order to subsequently place responsibility for possible civilian casualties on Russian servicemen.

According to reliable operational information obtained through the interception of radio communications, the Kiev regime is planning to carry out another inhuman provocation in Shostka city, Sumy Region. Long-range missile systems are expected to be delivered to Shostka from the USA in the near future, with which the Ukrainian armed formations are planning to strike at the Russian Federation territory directly from residential areas of the town on the orders of the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU). The Ukrainian neo-Nazis hope to provoke the Russian Armed Forces into returning fire and then accuse them of indiscriminate strikes on civilian infrastructure and the killing of Ukrainian civilians. This provocation will involve Ukrainian and foreign journalists at the instructions of the Kiev authorities to prepare fake photos and videos on the scene.

In addition, around 7:00 pm (Moscow time) on May 31, 2022, retreating units of the 79th Airborne Assault Brigade of the AFU detonated a tanker containing a toxic chemical substance (nitric acid) at Severodonetsk Azot enterprise in order to stop advancing units of the Russian Armed Forces and formations of the Donetsk People's Republic by creating a chemical contamination zone. After the explosion, an orange-coloured toxic cloud rose to an altitude of about 1 km and moved towards Kremennaya and Rubezhnoe. The Ukrainian neo-Nazis were not deterred by the fact that innocent civilians had suffered as a result of this terrorist act involving a toxic chemical substance. The Kiev authorities have once again shown their criminal and cynical nature. Terror and genocide against its own people have become the norm in Ukraine.

Russian MoD emphasizes once again that in carrying out the tasks of the special military operation, the Russian Armed Forces treat the local population extremely humanely and do not strike at civilian infrastructure facilities. There are no complaints from Ukrainian civilians.

3. Situation on the battlefields

Cowardly avoiding combat engagements with the united Russian and Donbass troops, the AFU and nationalist units continue shelling residential and social infrastructure areas in Donbass by using heavy artillery and MLRS, including the U.S. M777 howitzers that arrived near the DPR and the LPR. Like German fascists during the WWII retreating AFU formations explode everything that are used by rank-and-file people, many of them being Ukrainian citizens.

During last four months, AFU units fired 36,000 shells and missiles at civilians living in Donbass. They killed 136 civilians there, including children.

What could happen with the citizens of Donbass, if Russia decided in February 24th, 2022 not to protect them from the third Ukrainian aggression?

Against the backdrop of Kiev's political catastrophe in Mariupol and military failures in Donbass, the Kiev regime, with British financial support, has organised the production of "morale raise" videos for Western and Ukrainian audiences.

In particular, on May 28, staged video was filmed near Meshkovka, Nikolaev Region, of the alleged "high efficiency" of the use of Western weaponry by Ukrainian nationalists. To add more drama to the future film, at the insistence of British supervisors, a re-enactment of never-existing battle between Ukrainian Nazis and outnumbered "Russian soldiers" was created on the set. The roles of "opponents" of the Ukrainian Nazis in the staged short film were performed by members of the local territorial defence unit wearing red armbands. In the absence of trophy Russian equipment, the mock enemy appears in the frame using Ukrainian APCs and armoured vehicles.


In total, 186 Ukrainian aircraft and 129 helicopters, 1,087 unmanned aerial vehicles, 328 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,386 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 462 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,760 field artillery and mortars, as well as 3,376 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation


More and more Ukrainian GIs declare that they are not going to fight any more. They claim that they do not have enough food, reinforcements, weapons and professional commanders. Nearly 16,000 Ukrainian troops are nearly trapped in a cauldron in the area close to Donbass.

Ukrainian troops moral is at a very low level. Many AFU units refuse to fight due to lack of support by the central Government, too many losses and reduced weapons and ammunitions supply, having no desire to kill their fellow countrymen, major differences between the AFU and nationalist formations, and substantial disagreements between President Zelensky and the national military command who unlike the latter seeks ways to safe manpower.

3. The fate of foreign mercenaries in Ukraine

The overall number of foreign mercenaries to Ukraine to take part in combat operations against the Russian Armed Forces has virtually dried up since the beginning of May.

According to the data available by the Russian MoD, the total number of foreign mercenaries in Ukraine has now been almost halved from 6,600 to 3,500. At the same time, the number of mercenaries in combat units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and National Guard in Donbass occupied by them has decreased considerably.

Hundreds of foreign mercenaries in Ukraine were eliminated by Russian long-range precision weapons shortly after their arrival while they were undergoing pre-training and assembled into tactical groups. Most of the mercenaries lost their lives in the combat areas due to their low level of training and lack of combat experience.

The commanders of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and National Guard units, which included foreign mercenaries, are not sparing them in their efforts to reduce losses amongst their Ukrainian servicemen. Captured mercenaries tell interrogators that they are the first to be sacrificed. Due to the Kiev regime's silencing of the losses and the absence of remains, relatives of the mercenaries in their countries of residence simply do not know about their deaths.

Faced with a real combat situation and heavy losses among servicemen of the AFU, the National Guard and foreign ‘soldiers of fortune’, a significant number of mercenaries prefer to leave Ukrainian territory as soon as possible, but the Kiev regime prevents them from going abroad in every possible way.

The Kiev regime's urgent attempts to guarantee the mercenaries legal protection by including them in the military units of the AFU or the National Guard, or by issuing them illegally current Ukrainian passports, will not save any of them from criminal tribunal.

Russia realizes that under international humanitarian law, foreign mercenaries arrested in Ukraine are not and will be not considered as combatants and the best option for them is criminal liability.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 77. The Kremlin made a strong warning to the White House

June 5th, 2022

1. President Putin warned Ukraine against obtaining and using the U.S. long-range missiles

Russia would hit targets it has so far not struck if long-range missiles are delivered to Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned. “If they are supplied, we will draw the appropriate conclusions and use our weapons, which we have enough of, in order to strike at those targets that we have not yet struck,” Putin told Russia 1 TV Channel in an interview broadcasted on June 5th (the first part of it dealt with gas prices and global food crisis appeared in Report # 76 dated June 4th,2022).

The Russian president noted that the shipment of US-made multiple-launch rocket systems confirmed by President Joe Biden is unlikely to bring anything new to Kiev’s forces. The Ukrainian military already has Soviet- and Russian-designed Grad, Smerch, and Uragan MLRS of the same kind, he explained.

Vladimir Putin noted that their range does not depend on the system itself, but on the missiles that are used. And what Russia learned on the matter has nothing to do with trust in the Ukrainian regime.

According to the Russian president, the whole “fuss around” the additional arms deliveries to Kiev “serves only one purpose – to prolong the armed conflict as much as possible.”

The president noted that in the beginning of Russia's special operation, the Ukrainian army had about 515 MLRS, 380 of which were destroyed, but some were restored or taken from stock. Currently Kiev has about 360 units of such equipment.

On June 1st, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Ukrainian Government had given Washington assurances that it will not use American rockets to strike targets on Russian soil. One day later, however, Ukrainian Presidential Adviser Alexey Arestovich seemed to contradict that statement when he said the Ukrainian military will strike Russian territory with the U.S. HIMARS MLRS, if it sees fit to do so. He admitted that their range will be 300 km. When asked whether the restriction on the use of U.S.-provided rockets applies to Crimea, which voted to join Russia in 2014 after the military coup in Kiev, he insisted it is still part of Ukraine, and hence a legitimate target.

[see a commentary to this Report in the Annex; pp.5-6]

2.  Humanitarian situation

The Russian Federation's Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response continues to carefully record the facts of the inhumane treatment of civilians and use of residential buildings, schools, kindergartens and other social infrastructure facilities for military purposes by Ukrainian armed groups:

a) in Kharkov, the nationalists have deployed firing positions and artillery guns in the yards of the apartment blocks located at Astronomicheskaya street. Residents are prohibited to abandon their apartments under the pretext of security.

b) in Slavyansk, Donetsk People's Republic, the militants of Ukrainian nationalist groups have been deployed in the schools № 5 and № 6, in a music school, in a railroad professional school, in a chemical-mechanical technical school and in a boarding school, as well as the heavy armament and armoured equipment have been deployed at a compound feed plant;

c) in Druzhkovka, Donetsk People's Republic, the servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have deployed a command post in the school №1 (Olesya Gonchara st.), as well as multiple rocket launchers in the apartment blocks located at Sobornaya street, while its residents had been intentionally left without evacuation.

Despite the fact that this criminal action can result in causing victims among civilians, the militants of the Ukrainian armed groups launch deliberate attacks from residential areas at the positions of the Russian Armed Forces in order to provoke their counter-attack and to accuse Russian servicemen of the consequences from allegedly indiscriminate attacks.

Russian troops are still committed to treat the civilian population with an exclusive humanity and do not launch attacks at civilian infrastructure facilities during the special military operation.

Realising the impossibility to continue resisting and holding the industrial area in Severodonetsk, the authorities in Kiev have ordered the combined tactical group (survivors from 79th Independent Air Assault Brigade of the AFU, 117th and 118th independent battalions of the 111th Independent Territorial Defence Brigade) to plant saltpetre and nitric acid tanks of a volume above 100 tonnes at “Azot” chemical plant located in Severodonetsk with the aim of creating a chemically contaminated area.

Ukrainian nationalists are not deterred by the fact that this terrorist act with the involvement toxic chemicals can result in causing victims among innocent civilians as it already happened to the residents of Kremennaya and Rubezhnoye after the nationalists exploded a nitric acid reservoir at the same plant on May 31, 2022.

Despite all the obstacles imposed by the Ukrainian side, 20,167 people have been evacuated from dangerous areas of Ukraine and Donbass over the past 24 hours, including 2,695 children, and in total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 1,655,107 people have already been evacuated to Russia, including 268,189 are children.

The database has received 2,757,479 requests citizens to evacuate them to Russia, the DPR and LPR from 2,137 settlements in Ukraine.

Federal executive authorities, in coordination with the regions of the Russian Federation, various public organizations, patriotic movements, continue to accumulate humanitarian aid. More than 30 thousand tonnes of basic necessities and food kits, including baby food and life-saving medicines, have been prepared at collection points.

Since March 2, 26,225.3 tonnes of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered by the Russian Federation to Ukraine, 1,103 humanitarian campaigns have been carried out, including 4 campaigns in the Donetsk People's Republic, Kharkov and Kherson regions, during which 387 tonnes of humanitarian aid were distributed to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

On June 4, 2022, 12 humanitarian campaigns are being carried out in the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, in Kharkov and Kherson regions, during which 624.4 tonnes of basic necessities, medicine and food are distributed.

3. Two ‘blue-water’ sea corridors are still open for all foreign vessels

70 foreign vessels from 16 countries still remain blocked in six Ukrainian ports (Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhniy). The threat of shelling and high mine danger posed by official Kiev prevent vessels from entering the high seas unhindered. The danger to navigation from Ukrainian mines drifting off their anchors along the coasts of Black Sea states remains. In so doing, the Kiev regime raises hue and cry over its inability to deliver national grain abroad, but has not removed or deactivated sea mines set up by its Navy close these port facilities.

As a result of a series of measures taken by the Russian Navy, the Mariupol harbour has been cleared of mines, the port infrastructure is routinely under reconstruction.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have created the necessary conditions for the operation of two maritime humanitarian corridors that constitute safe lanes for navigation:

a) in the Black Sea (every day from 08:00 AM to 07:00 PM) to leave Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhnyi ports towards south-west from Ukraine's territorial sea, 139 miles long and 3 miles wide;

b) in the Sea of Azov (currently uninterruptedly) to leave Mariupol port, 115 miles long and 2 miles wide, towards the Black Sea.

Detailed information on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridors is broadcast daily every 15 minutes by VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels in English and Russian.

The Kiev authorities continue to avoid engaging with representatives of states concerned and ship-owning companies to resolve the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area at the Black Sea.

The Russian Federation is taking a full range of comprehensive measures to ensure the safety of civilian navigation in the waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

4. Palantin ECM system actively employed in Ukraine

Palantin electronic warfare system 'drops' the Ukrainian reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles and 'jams' the cellular hotspots and the Internet at the enemy's command posts.

The system operates at the ranges of more than 20 km, and not by direct beams, but pointwise. It means Palantin is able to neutralise communication and Internet sources at the enemy's positions without interfering into civilian infrastructure. The electronic warfare system autonomously detects and neutralises the enemy's drones, intercepts the signal and turns on interference. As a result, a drone loses connection with its operation on the ground. This system automatically detects and neutralises the radio communication lines, including the digital ones.

Palantin system twice or thrice times exceeds the efficiency of the Russian previous-generation ECM systems, and proved to be very successful in Ukraine.

5. Situation on the battlefields

Ukrainian troops and ultra-nationalist formations are stiil shelling Donbass residential and social infrastructure areas. The capital city of the DPR was subjected to heavy shelling by the Ukrainian military late on June 4th. Multiple districts of Donetsk came under almost simultaneous attack by Kiev's forces, which used howitzers and rocket artillery against many civilian targets in the city. Ukrainian AF shelled the city, killing five civilians and wounding twenty. The shelling also damaged two schools and a local market, Donetsk Mayor Alexey Kulemzin said. In addition, the attack ruptured a high-pressure gas pipeline in the southwestern part of the city,

Donetsk was hit by more than 40 rockets launched from BM-21 Grad systems, as well as by multiple 122mm artillery shells, according to local authorities.

The DPR and the LPR call such acts as “terrorism” and “state-sponsored terrorism”.

Demining detachments of the Russian Armed Forces and the EMERCOM of Russia are carrying out land and facility clearance tasks in the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics.

A total of 2,772.04 hectares were explored (including 75.53 hectares over the past 24 hours), 35 buildings (including 13 socially important facilities), 1 bridge and 9.64 km of roads. 13,801 explosives have been detected and neutralized, including 310 of them over the past 24 hours.

Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov said during a regular briefing on June 5th that Russian forces carried out airstrikes “on the outskirts of Kiev, destroying the T-72 tanks and other armored vehicles that were supplied by Eastern European countries and kept in railcar repair facilities.” The spokesman did not specify where the tanks came from, but Poland previously said it had donated T-72 tanks to Ukraine.

High-precision air-based missiles in Kramatorsk, Druzhkovka and Chasov Yar (Donetsk People's Republic) have destroyed the factory shops where military equipment damaged during the hostilities was being repaired and restored for the Ukrainian armed forces.

In addition, the command posts of the 81st and 95th Airborne Assault Brigades of the AFU, as well as 6 areas of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment concentration have been hit during the day.

The attacks have resulted in the destruction of 2 Osa-AKM anti-aircraft missile launchers near Cherkasskoe (Donetsk People's Republic) and Orekhov (Zaporozhye Region), 2 multiple-launch rocket launchers near Korotych (Kharkov Region), 3 rocket and artillery weapon depots near Mayaki and Slavyansk (Donetsk People's Republic), and 1 US-made counter-battery radar (AN/TPQ-50) near Seversk (Donetsk People's Republic).

Operational-tactical and army aviation have hit 3 command posts, 65 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, and 3 ammunition depots.

The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 350 nationalists, 10 tanks armoured and motor vehicles, 2 Grad multiple rocket launchers, 9 artillery pieces, 14 special vehicles, as well as tanks with fuel, near Konstantinovka railway station, destined for a group of AFU troops in Donbass and 2 ammunition depots near Bakhmut (Donetsk People's Republic) and Loskutovka (Lugansk People's Republic).

1 MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force has been shot down during an aerial battle near Slavyansk (Donetsk People's Republic).

Russian air defence means near Odessa have shot down 1 An-26 military transport aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force carrying weapons and military equipment.

Also during the day, 10 unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down near Vidrodzhennya, Ryasnoe, Svyatogorsk (Donetsk People's Republic), Kirovsk, Prudovka, Borovenki, Varvarovka (Lugansk People's Republic), Volchiy Yar, Bolshie Prokhody (Kharkov Region), Zazornoe (Zaporizhzhya Region), including 1 Bayraktar TV2 near Berezovka (Kharkov Region).

In addition, 2 Tochka-U tactical missiles have been intercepted over Novogeorgievka (Nikolaev Region), and 3 Ukrainian Uragan multiple rocket launchers have been shot down near Sukhaya Kamenka, Dolgenkoe and Kamenka (Kharkov Region).

Missile troops and artillery have hit 46 command posts, 123 artillery and mortar units at firing positions, as well as 498 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration.

President Zelensky admitted that Russian and the DPR and LPR troops have occupied 20 percent of Ukrainian territory with more than 3600 populated places.

The AFU units are retreating towards Lisichansk after suffering critical losses (up to 90% in various units eliminated) during the combats for Severodonetsk.

In total, 189 Ukrainian aircraft and 129 helicopters, 1,114 unmanned aerial vehicles, 330 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,416 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 470 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,778 field artillery and mortars, as well as 3,419 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.

Anti-U.S. and anti-NATO sentiments in Russia have raised considerably after the White House has sanctioned deadly arms delivery to the Kiev ultra-nationalist regime: dozens of billions of US $. Russians are angry over such policy initiated by President Joseph Biden that kills Russians and Ukrainians, and say that due to such direct U.S. aggression the Russian-U.S. relations cannot be repaired for many decades to

*   *   *

Annex

U.S. MLRS IN UKRAINE IS A DIRECT AGGRESSION VS RUSSIA.

THE KREMLIN LAST WARNING TO BLOCK IT

On June 1st U.S. President Biden announced the 11th package of military and other aid to Ukraine in the amount of $ 700 million. He noted that the USA will support Ukrainians as a "standing guard over democracy" and continue to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons and equipment for self-defense. Washington intends to supply the Kiev regime with HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), the tactical and technical characteristics of which will allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to strike targets on the territory of the Russian Federation. The first four such launchers, previously transferred by the Pentagon to Europe, will enter service with the Ukrainian army in the coming days.

Realizing the threat of further escalation of the conflict created by such a decision and the involvement of third countries in it, the U.S. authorities are hiding behind the promise allegedly given to them by Kiev not to use MLRS to shell Russian territory. Washington is trying to assure the world community that American weapons will not be used for offensive purposes and for possible attacks on the Russian territory. The U.S. side has publicly stated that the range of their proposed set of MLRS missiles is no more than 80 km.

Even if it is so, the U.S. HIMERS can hit some Russian border areas.

The crux of the matter is not such specific distance. It can be easily enlarged up to the announced maximum range – 300 km.


The current U.S. Administration deliberately keeps silence about Poland

 acting as key prime mover along such MLRS transit supply route.

 What does it mean? Warsaw can easily replace the U.S. HIMERS fitted

with 80 km missiles by longer-range missiles capable to travel up to 300 km


The Republic of Crimea as a part of Russia and the Russian Black Sea Fleet will be under threat of attack.

Moreover, NATO politicians consider the peninsula to be Ukrainian and will traditionally justify the next "embarrassment" of President Volodimyr Zelensky by "liberating the country's territory from invaders." The adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Alexey Arestovich, in his characteristic manner broadcasted that the Crimea is Ukrainian territory and the United States knows about it, that "if there is a need, the missiles will fly to the Crimea." He also proudly confirmed plans for the Polish re-equipment of the supplied MLRS with longer-range missiles, by saying: "where is 80 [km], there will be 300 [km]." The Deputy from the Party "Servant of the People" Egor Chernev continued such cynical reasoning with the words: "We take on certain obligations, but no one can guarantee how the rocket will fly there."

The Russian authorities have repeatedly warned the United States about the unpredictable consequences of such steps for global security. Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov assured that Russia is taking measures to minimize the risks that will arise when Kiev receives American MLRS. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that Kiev's receipt of MLRS from the West creates risks of involving third countries into the conflict unfolding in Ukraine. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said that in the event of an attack on our cities, retaliatory strikes will be inflicted on decision-making centers located not only on the territory of Ukraine. Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Washington Anatoly Antonov called the decision "unacceptable”.

Realizing the insignificance of the contribution of another portion of Western weapons to the outcome of hostilities, the Kiev regime is planning another provocation. The head of the National Defense Control Center of the Russian Federation, Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, disclosed operational information about plans to place the delivered MLRS in the residential development of the city of Shostka, Sumy Region, the distance from which to the border with the Bryansk Region is about 50 km. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, by order of the President, will strike over the border with the Russian Federation in order to provoke the return fire of the Russian armed forces, in order to subsequently accuse them of indiscriminate attacks on civilian infrastructure.

Recently, on June 5th, in an interview with the federal TV Channel "Russia 1", Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned: “If they are supplied, we will draw the appropriate conclusions and use our weapons, which we have enough of, in order to strike at those targets that we have not yet struck.”

A short assessment.

It is very strong warning made so far by the Kremlin to the White House.

It is crystal-clear: to strike at those targets that Russian Armed Forces have not yet delivered any attack against them.

Actually, it is the last warning.

With a substantial meaning hidden between the lines.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin
 

 

Report # 79. Three foreign mercenaries sentenced to death in the DPR

June 10th, 2022

1. Humanitarian situation

According to the information from the Ukrainian war prisoners the nationalists prepare another sophisticated provocation aimed on accusing Russian units of launching  indiscriminate strikes over important assets of civilian infrastructure. In order to carry out this provocation the AFU units deployed an artillery battery in order to shell Zmejovskaya thermal power plant. In case this power plant is destroyed people in Kharkov, Poltava and Sumy regions and hundreds of vital infrastructure objects will be left without electricity.

In Avdeevka, Ukrainian nationalists mined containers with toxic substances at coke and chemicals plant (Industrialny prospect) and are going to blow them up in case of advance of Russian units and slow their assault with a poisonous cloud. The Ukrainian side plans to use this fact for accusation Russian Armed Forces in usage of chemical weapons.

Russia warned that the above and other similar provocations about alleged "Russian atrocities" are soon to be widely spread by the Ukrainian authorities through the Western media and in various Internet resources.

Moreover, Ukrainian armed formations continue using critical industrial facilities for military purpose while cynically hiding behind the civilian population as a "human shield".

According to the verified information, in Severodonetsk, the LPR, the AFU keep by force hundreds of local residents in underground facilities of Azot chemical plant in the same way they contained civilians at the Azovstal steel mill in Mariupol. Plant`s staff is also kept there without its will. The nationalists also mined containers with chemically hazardous substances (nitric acid, ammonia, ammonium nitrate) and plan to blow them during retreat.

In Kramatorsk, Donetsk People's Republic, AFU units have deployed artillery and MLRS on the territory of Konditsioner plant (Shkolnaya street). Local worker are being kept by force in industrial premises of the plant.

In Druzkovka, Donetsk People's Republic, Ukrainian nationalists set up firing positions and deployed heavy weapons on the territory of the gas equipment plant. Local residents are kept in basement rooms under the pretext of ensuring their safety.

Such actions by Kiev once again demonstrate an inhuman attitude towards the fate of the Ukrainian citizens and show a complete disregard for all norms of morality and international humanitarian law.

2. Situation at the Black Sea and the Azov Sea area

70 foreign merchant vessels with their crews from 16 countries remain blocked in six Ukrainian ports (Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhniy). The threat of shelling and high mine danger posed by official Kiev prevents vessels from entering the high seas unhindered. At the same time, President Zelensky has not issued any order to release them from their artificial detention. The Kiev authorities continue to avoid engaging with representatives of states and ship-owning companies to resolve the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area. The danger to navigation from Ukrainian mines drifting off their anchors along the coasts of Black Sea states remains.

Kiev artificially spreads artificial rumors that somebody prevents it to deliver Ukrainian grain abroad by sea.  Nobody prevents it. And never has prevented.

It is Ukrainian Navy that has placed many sea mines in the Black Sea, especially near the international sea ports, like Odessa, Nikolaev, etc. Namely Ukrainian Navy should: (1) deactivate all these mines;

(2) let all 70 foreign merchant vessels with their crews from 16 countries to leave freely Ukrainian territorial waters;

(3) sign the respective agreements with foreign countries to deliver Ukrainian grain abroad by sea.

The situation is completely different at the Azov Sea. As a result of the measures taken by the Russian Navy, the mine threat in the sea port of Mariupol has been eliminated and measures are being taken to restore the port infrastructure.

The Russian Armed Forces have created conditions for the operation of two maritime ‘blue-water’ humanitarian corridors, which are safe lanes for ships:

in the Black Sea - to leave Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhnyi ports in a south-westerly direction from Ukraine's territorial sea, 139 miles long and 3 miles wide;

in the Sea of Azov, to leave Mariupol port 115 miles long and 2 miles wide towards the Black Sea.

Detailed information in English and Russian on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridor is broadcast daily every 15 minutes on VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels in English and Russian.

3. Situation on the battlefields

The AFU still aggressively shell Donbass populated areas. In the last 24 h 13 civilians have been killed and 6 injured, many houses destroyed by heavy wepaons.

High-precision air-based missiles at Dnepr military airfield have destroyed Ukrainian air force equipment. Air-based missiles have hit 2 command posts, 27 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration, 5 Ukrainian artillery positions, including 2 multiple rocket launcher batteries near Soledar and Praskovievka in Donetsk People's Republic, as well as 5 missile-artillery weapons and ammunition depots near Bakhmut, Berestovoe in Donetsk People's Republic and Loskutovka in Lugansk People's Republic.

Operational-tactical and army aviation have hit 46 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration. The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 150 nationalists, 6 tanks, 4 field artillery mounts and 2 Grad MLRSs.

Russian air defence means have shot down two airplanes of the Ukrainian air force during the day including 1 Su-25 near Dolgenkoe, Kharkov Region, and 1 MiG-29 near Ingulets, Dnepropetrovsk Region. In addition, 4 Tochka-U tactical missiles have been intercepted near Popasnaya, Lugansk People's Republic, Ledovka, and Kalinovo, Kharkov Region and 3 rockets of Uragan MLRS near Malaya Kamyshevakha, Nizhnee Kup'e,  Kharkov Region and Yakovlevka, Donetsk People's Republic.

Missile troops and artillery have hit 62 command posts, 138 firing positions of artillery, as well as 303 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration.

The attacks have resulted in the destruction of more than 350 nationalists, 7 ACVs, 2 Grad MLRSs, 5 field artillery mounts and mortars, 16 special vehicles, and 11 storage facilities for missile and artillery weapons, ammunition and fuel.


In total, 195 Ukrainian airplanes and 130 helicopters, 1,168 unmanned aerial vehicles, 336 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,484 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 499 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,843 field artillery and mortars, as well as 3,528 special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.

 


4. Three foreign mercenaries have been sentenced to death

Three foreign mercenaries have been sentenced to death at the court assembled in the DPR June 9th.

A court in Donetsk has sentenced to death three foreign men, who served in the Ukrainian forces and fought for Kiev in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). British citizens Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner, as well as Moroccan Saadun Ibrahim, were found guilty of acting as mercenaries and attempting to seize power by force in the DPR.

They were also accused of undergoing training in order to carry out terrorist activities on the territory of the state, which was recognized by Russia in February. Kiev, and most of the world, regards it as a breakaway province of Ukraine.

Under the laws of the DPR, the forcible seizure of power carries a penalty of between 12 and 20 years behind bars, but it can be escalated to capital punishment due to the aggravating circumstances of war time. Acting as a mercenary is punishable by a prison sentence of three to seven years.

The three men were tried on several criminal charges. They pleaded guilty to “undergoing training for the purpose of carrying out terrorist activities” and attempting to forcefully topple the government in Donetsk, but denied being mercenaries hired by Kiev.

London has demanded that its citizens be treated as prisoners of war under the Geneva Conventions. However, Britain is not formally at war with the DPR.

Authorities in the DPR have said they consider them to be mercenaries, who are not granted the same privileges as regular combatants and POW under international law.

The convicted men may appeal the decision in court, which they plan to do, or request a pardon from the head of the DPR. If they win the appeal, the capital punishment could be reduced to up to 25 years in prison. According to DPR laws, the death penalty is carried out by firing squad.

Aiden Aslin, a UK citizen, who fought for Ukrainian forces in Mariupol has told newsmen that he regrets his decision to fight for Kiev.

In his words, the Western media had played a major role in convincing him to support the Ukrainian cause and eventually made him a “pawn” in a political game. Aslin said he had followed the Ukrainian conflict since 2014 He supported Crimea’s reunification with Russia and believes the people of Donbass have a right to independence. He was also skeptical about the level of training in the Ukrainian Army. “They are not as professional as they would like to be,” he said, calling their artillery training “substandard”.

“Another factor you have to consider [in case of the Ukrainian] Army is that there is a lot of alcohol involved,” he added. “They [the Ukrainian government] could have easily ended the war. They had the opportunity but they chose not to, mainly because I think money was involved,” Aslin said. He urged other foreigners who might consider joining Kiev’s cause not to be “duped into a war that is one you should not be fighting.”

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 8. Ukraine’s leadership rejected talks

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on February 25 that he was ready to sit down for talks with Russia in order to debate Ukrainian neutral status. The same day, Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman, told reporters that Moscow was ready to hold such talks in Minsk, Belarus. Russian team was composed of deputies of ministers from MFA, MoD and Presidential Administration
In anticipation of these talks President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian troops to halt their advance on February 25, awaiting a response from Kiev.
 
The Ukrainian side offered to move the meeting to Warsaw, Poland, instead of Minsk, and then suddenly stopped responding to Moscow’s reply.
 
Russia has resumed the military operation February 26 in Ukraine after Kiev refused to negotiate.
 
There are four major reasons for recalling Kiev’s negotiations offer.
 
Firstmassive NATO military and political support for Kiev announced before and after Zelensky’s offer to start a neutral status talks. Biden has ordered to deploy extra U.S. troops in Europe and additional funds to Kiev for “urgent military aid”.
 
Secondlack of agreement between Zelensky’s advisers and the White House on the mandate and scope of such talks.
 
Third, intention of Kiev to continue shelling Donbass with heavy weapons prohibited by the Minsk accord. In Donbass during last 24 hours 7 civilians have been killed and 15 wounded. Zelensky also began shelling Russian territory, in undisputable Rostov Region. Such Ukrainian attacks are still taking place.
 
Fourth, blocking of civil aviation air traffic routs by seven NATO countries (by 18:00 Moscow time: the UK, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland and the Czech Republic) and proclaiming a trade war at sea by France that illegally detained Russian cargo ship “Baltic Liner” delivering passenger cars to St. Petersburg
.
Are these air-traffic war and trade war at sea directly needed to de-escalate a dramatic standoff in Ukraine?
 
Russia has the right to respond. Or it does not have such right?
 
Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 
 
 

Report # 80. Russia demands U.S. clarification on biolabs abroad

June 12, 2022

1. Russia demands explanations from the USA on its bio activity abroad

Moscow demands answers to questions about U.S. military-biological activities in the post-Soviet space, official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry said in an interview with TASS.

TASS correspondent noted that on June 9, a "Reference material on efforts to reduce the threat of WMD with Ukraine, Russia and other former USSR countries" was published on the Internet portal of the US Defense Department, and that a significant part of this material is devoted to the activities of the Pentagon in the post-Soviet space in the biological sphere. The correspondent then asked for a comment on the allegations contained in the material about the allegedly peaceful nature of such US activities.

In the answer the MFA official spokesperson said that the Russian side considers this material as a "stuffing" and as part of an information campaign initiated by Washington to justify the US military-biological activities in the post-Soviet space in order to divert the attention of the international community from its true opaque and unseemly orientation, which runs counter to Washington's international obligations, including the Convention on the Prohibition of Biological and Toxin Weapons (BTWC). Taking into account the fact that the United States has not yet withdrawn its reservation to the Geneva Protocol of 1925 prohibiting the use of bacteriological weapons, the question arises quite reasonably regarding the real goals of the Pentagon's international military biological activity.

The comment of the US DoD looks especially cynical against the background of facts and evidence obtained during a special military operation in Ukraine, which confirm the implementation of military biological activity in biological laboratories on the territory of Ukraine with the support of the Pentagon Threat Reduction Agency and its affiliated companies contrary to Articles I and IV of the BTWC.

While responding to a question whether the Russian side will take any measures to increase control over the activities carried out by the United States in biological laboratories in the post-Soviet space, it has been said that it intends to use mechanisms in the near future, in accordance with Articles V and VI of the Convention, which provide for consultations between the BTWC participating States in resolving any issues regarding the purpose of the Convention or in connection with the implementation of its provisions, as well as cooperation in conducting any investigations of possible violations of obligations under the BTWC.

It has been clarified that Washington conducted biological research in other countries of the former USSR. Moscow has also repeatedly drawn attention to the activities of the so-called R. Lugar Public Health Research Center in Georgia, where the "Department of Medical Research of the US Army-Georgia" is deployed on a permanent basis. Russian officials (including through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense) and public figures, as well as Georgian experts and representatives of civil society have repeatedly pointed out that the activities of the R. Lugar Center raise serious questions about US compliance with obligations under the BTWC. In particular, it was noted that on the basis of this biological object, studies are being conducted on the use of insects as carriers of particularly dangerous biological agents and infectious agents.

For obvious reasons, the United States prefers to keep silent about the ongoing work in the post-Soviet space and does not provide information as part of the BTWC confidence-building measures. The claims that the activity of the Pentagon and related structures is focused exclusively on health issues are not true. It is obvious that assistance in the field of healthcare does not require the participation of the US military. Moreover, the explanations repeatedly made by the American side that the United States is collecting biomaterials and monitoring the epidemiological situation only reinforce and strengthen our concerns in the context of compliance with the BTWC, including taking into account the facts revealed in Ukraine.

In turn, Russia's activities in the medical and biological sphere are purely peaceful and fully comply with the obligations under the BTWC. This is confirmed, in particular, by the information provided annually by our country as part of the BTWC confidence-building measures.

TASS correspondent asked in what way cooperation between Moscow and Washington should be built with the aim to strengthen trust and comply with the provisions of the said Convention on the Prohibition of Biological and Toxin Weapons/

A diplomat answered that Russia calls on the United States, as the depositary of the BTWC, to take a responsible approach to fulfilling its obligations under the Convention, and in fact contribute to strengthening the regime of this disarmament mechanism, which is important for international security. We expect to provide not general information, but substantive explanations regarding specific issues raised by the Russian side in connection with the military biological activities of the United States in the post-Soviet space.

Moscow also counts on Washington's positive contribution to the preparation and adoption of relevant decisions by the Ninth BTWC Review Conference. In particular, there is a need to revise the extremely illogical position of the United States regarding a legally binding protocol to the BTWC with an effective verification mechanism. Formally advocating the strengthening of the Convention and traditionally presenting verification as a fundamental element of any effective agreement in the field of arms control, Washington has been blocking attempts to resume work on such a protocol since 2001.

The support of the United States and other initiatives, including Russian ones, aimed at strengthening the organizational foundations of this disarmament mechanism, which is important for international security, would be very much in demand. Special attention should be paid to our proposal to improve confidence-building measures implemented within the framework of the BTWC by including in the annual reporting information on military medical and biological activities carried out by States parties to the Convention abroad.

The Russian MFA official called on the U.S. side to display professionalism and, instead of propaganda information stuffing, to urgently engage in substantive work to correct the situation related to their military biological activities in the countries of the former USSR.

[https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1817355]

2. The recent results of the third Ukrainian aggression vs Donbass

According to official JCCC data, 702 civilians, including 55 children, were wounded to varying degrees of severity in the territory of the DPR and LPR between February 17 and May 5, 2022.

Damaged were 4,070 residential buildings, 867 civilian infrastructure including 54 medical facilities, 159 educational institutions, 269 social welfare facilities, 29 critical infrastructure facilities, 356 electricity, water and gas supply facilities, and 449 vehicles.

In 109 days, the JCCC has recorded 3,837 instances of shelling, including 3,526 involving the use of heavy weapons. In total, the enemy fired 3,447 rounds of various calibres, including missiles fired by 28 Tochka-U system and three types of MLRS: 14 BM-30 Smerch, 50 BM-27 Uragan and 5,906 BM-21 Grad.

3. Kiev does not want to let its grain to be sold via sea

 President Zelensky neglects the demands from the world community to deactivate all sea mines he ordered set up at the Black Sea, thus blocking any chances to ship Ukrainian grain abroad that constitutes less than one percent of the global grain production per year. At the same time, the Kiev authorities continue to avoid engaging with representatives of states and ship-owning companies to resolve the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area.

Due to the same reason 70 foreign vessels from 16 countries remain blocked in 6 Ukrainian ports (Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhniy). The threat of shelling and high mine danger posed by official Kiev prevents vessels from entering the high seas unhindered.

The Russian Armed Forces have created conditions for the operation of two ‘blue-water’ maritime humanitarian corridors, which are safe lanes for ships:

a) in the Black Sea - to leave Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhnyi ports in a south-westerly direction from Ukraine's territorial sea, 139 miles long and 3 miles wide;

b) in the Sea of Azov, to leave Mariupol port 115 miles long and 2 miles wide towards the Black Sea.

Detailed information in English and Russian on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridor is broadcast daily every 15 minutes on VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels in English and Russian.

The Russian Federation is taking a full range of comprehensive measures to ensure the safety of civilian navigation in the waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

4. The fate of three foreign mercenaries sentenced to death in Donbass

On June 9th the Supreme Court of the Donetsk People’s Republic has sentenced to death three foreign mercenaries who fought on the side of the Ukrainian armed formations.

Two British citizens Sean Pinner and Aidan Aslin and Moroccan Saadoun Brahim were found guilty of violation of a number of Articles of the DPR Criminal Code, including Article 323 (actions aimed at forcibly seizing power or forcibly retaining power in violation of the Constitution of the Donetsk People's Republic, as well as Article 430 (involvement in mercenary activity that has a definition of a mercenary as “a person who acts in order to receive material reward and who is not a citizen of a state participating in an armed conflict or hostilities, who does not permanently reside on its territory, and who is also not a person sent to perform official duties).

All of them have been convicted of committing of cumulative crimes with the verdict “death penalty”. Under provisions of Article 58, the death penalty as an exceptional measure of punishment may be established only for particularly serious crimes that encroach on life, as well as for individual crimes committed during wartime or in a combat situation (paragraph 1).

The foreigners also pleaded guilty under Articles on training for terrorist activities. Pinner and Brahim also pleaded guilty to acts aimed at seizing power by force.

While in Russia death penalty is not permitted, in the DPR such sentence can be executed. Under the DPR Criminal Code the death penalty verdict by way of pardon may be replaced by life imprisonment or imprisonment for a term of twenty-five years (paragraph 3 of Article 58).

The DPR and Russian officials are of the same opinion that they these group cannot be referred to as combatants or POW.

“War crimes committed by these mercenaries do not fall under the Geneva Convention. In addition, all the events took place on the territory of the DPR, and not on the territory of Russia, so Moscow has nothing to do with this,” Vladislav Berdichevsky, deputy of the People’s Council of the DPR, told the Vzglyad Internet edition.

“Therefore, since the trial took place in the DPR, and they were convicted according to the laws of the DPR, then the sentence will be carried out in accordance with the regulatory framework of the Donetsk People’s Republic,” the parliamentarian noted. “In this regard, the appeals of the United States and Britain to Russia have no meaning. In order to somehow influence the situation, they must recognize the DPR and enter into formal negotiations on this issue with the authorities in Donetsk,” the source emphasized.

The head of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, said he sees no reason to pardon foreign mercenaries sentenced to death in the republic, TASS reports. “First of all, I must be guided by the court decision that has been made. By the nature of those articles, those offenses that they committed, I see no grounds, prerequisites for me to come out with such a decision to pardon,” he said.

5. Situation on the battlefields

Russian Kalibr high-tech and high-precision sea-based long-range missiles near Chortkov in Ternopol Region have destroyed a large warehouse of anti-tank missile systems, portable anti-aircraft missile systems and artillery shells supplied to the Kiev regime from the USA and European countries.

There are more voices in Russia demanding that all NATO and the EU countries who offered deadly weapons to Ukraine should pay 10-fold moral and material compensation for those civilians killed and injured in Donbass by Western weapons.

From February 24th in total, 201 Ukrainian airplanes and 130 helicopters, 1,188 unmanned aerial vehicles, 338 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,514 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 508 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,870 field artillery and mortars, as well as 3,570 special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 82. AFU thwart humanitarian corridor from Azot plant

June 15th, 2022

1. Kiev blocked a humanitarian corridor from Azot chemical plant

Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) holed up at the Azot chemical plant liberated by the Russian troops in Severodonetsk have foiled the evacuation of civilians through a humanitarian corridor provided by Russia on June 15, a military commander with the People’s Republic of Luganks (LPR) has said. “The evacuation of civilians from Azot has been completely thwarted by the opposing side,” Aleksandr Nikishin, from the LPR’s Second Army Corps, told journalists.

Only one person – a 74-year-old man – has gotten out of the plant. It happened before 8:00 AM local time when the Russian humanitarian corridor was to become operational. The man walked out “by accident” as he was unaware of the planned evacuation, saying that Ukrainian troops had not informed the civilians inside about it, Nikishin claimed. Later several women also managed to escape. They said that there are foreign mercenaries hiding at the Azot chemical plant as well.

It looks like that Ukrainian authorities intentionally refused to inform the people trapped inside the Azot plant about the evacuation corridor, though the Russian military command via the operational channels of communication immediately notified Irina Vereshchuk, the Deputy Prime Minister, about such corridor and its timeframe.

Around 8:10 AM (that is 15 minutes after the humanitarian corridor has been opened) Kiev’s armed forces trapped at the plant began firing at Russian positions from a tank, a howitzer and a mortar thus disrupted any chance for all people to escape. Additional intensive fire was delivered by AFU from Lisichansk at the opened humanitarian corridor (Lisichansk controlled by AFU, and Severodonetsk, controlled by Russian and the LPR troops are located very close to each other; they are separated by the Seversky Donets Riverl only).

So, President Zelensky tries to repeat the same hostages’ drama that took place last April in Mariupol at Azlovstal still plant for several weeks.

Under such circumstances the evacuation of people was impossible and a decision was made to close the humanitarian corridor, Nikishin said. According to the commander, talks with the Ukrainian military will continue to make sure that some 1,500 civilians at the plant are moved to safe areas. According to other unconfirmed reports there are 300-700 civilians or 300 civilians plus 100 staffers working at the plant. Like ai Mariupol-based Azovstal still mill, this plant has many basements and underground corridors.

Ukrainian troops retreated to the Azot chemical plant a week ago after the rest of the strategic city of Severodonetsk had fallen under Russian control. Moscow insisted that civilians had been forced into the facility to be used as human shields.

On June 14, the Russian military said that Kiev had asked Moscow to provide safe passage for civilians at the plant to the Ukrainian-controlled city of Lisichansk on the other side of the Seversky Donets River. The plan was rejected on the basis that all bridges connecting Severodonetsk to Lisichansk had been destroyed by the Ukrainian troops. Instead, Moscow offered to open a humanitarian corridor towards the town of Svatovo, which is controlled by the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR), and it is safe to settle. The Russian side also expressed concerns that Ukrainian fighters could use the evacuation as cover up for their own escape.

2. The USA and NATO are to send heavy weapons to Ukraine

The Biden administration has previously provided Ukraine with over $5.3 billion in military assistance, of which $4.6 billion has come since February 24, 2022 according to Colin Kahl. The $1 billion announced June 15 is extra over these numbers.

Washington will give Kiev another $1 billion in “security assistance,” including artillery, ammunition and advanced missiles, US President Joe Biden announced on Wednesday after a phone call with Zelensky. Biden informed Zelensky that the aid would include “additional artillery and coastal defense weapons, as well as ammunition for the artillery and advanced rocket systems that the Ukrainians need to support their defensive operations in [Donbass],” according to a readout of the call released by the White House.

Colin Kahl, Pentagon Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, revealed that the payload for HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) are to be send to Ukraine despite strong objection from Russia.

The White House previously said that M142 HIMARS launchers would be provided with “battlefield munitions,” widely understood to be unguided rockets with a shorter range like 80 km. However, HIMARS is also capable of launching ballistic projectiles with a range of up to 300km.

The high-mobility artillery rocket system will come with GMLRS as guided MLRS, Kahl said on June 14, speaking at a conference hosted by the Center for New American Security (CNAS), a Democrat-linked think tank for which he used to work. “The GMLRS is a precision guided munition, and a big one – a 500 pound munition,” he added.

NATO is also pouring gasoline into a fire. It has already provided Ukraine with billions of dollars’ worth of military equipment.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said: “Allies are committed to continue providing the military equipment that Ukraine needs to prevail, including heavy weapons and long-range systems.” He expected allies will agree a comprehensive assistance package for Ukraine at the Madrid Summit. It would help Ukraine for the longer-term, to transition from Soviet-era to modern NATO equipment, and to improve interoperability with NATO. In meetings ahead of the Madrid summit, NATO leaders also doubled down on deliveries of heavy weapons to Ukraine.

Moscow has already strongly denounced such deal believing that it would escalate the conflict initiated by Kiev in the heart of Europe and kill many people – both Russians and Ukrainians. "If Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and his team are not ready for negotiations, if those behind him are determined to continue their mindless, or rather, insane pumping of Ukraine with weapons, it is their choice, , it is sad, it is tragic, but we cannot retreat," Sergey Ryabkov, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, said on June 15.

Europe violates its own legal acts with its policy in the field of supplying Ukraine with weapons. According to the Common Position of the EU Council dated December 2008. general rules were determined to control the export of military technology and equipment. Earlier,Europe sought to prevent the incitement of civil wars in those countries where weapons were sent to with such supplies.

There are voices in Russia to sever diplomatic, and all trade and economic relations with the USA and other NATO countries who supply ultra-Nazi regime in Ukraine with deadly heavy long-range weapons, and even to initiate hearings at criminal courts in Russia against their presidents, prime-ministers and ministers of defense.

3. Russia and US will have to discuss arms control, but not for now

Russia and the United States will have to discuss arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation issues, but not now, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in an interview with Sputnik. "There is an understanding that there are areas that one way or another will still have to be discussed. These are the areas of arms control, and disarmament areas, the topic of non-proliferation. This is something that our two countries will have to discuss one way or another, but, obviously, not now," Peskov said.

On June 15th, Sergey Ryabkov, Deputy Foreign Minister said that Russia rejects the very ideology of nuclear weapons’ employment. In his words, the Western blames that Russia is playing rhetoric game on hypothetical use of nuclear weapons “does not correspond to reality”.

4. Situation on the battlefields

8 civilians were killed and 17 injured during rocket and artillery fire delivered by AFU during last 48 hours vs Stakhanov and Krinichny, located in the LPR, its defense HQ informed. 386 of different shells have been used by AFU hitting totally 14 populated settlements in Donbass. 15 houses have been damaged – all belonging to civilian infrastructures. Ultra-Nazi used cluster munitions of 122 and 155 mm.

On the other hand, high-precision long-range Kalibr missiles near Zolochev, Lvov region, have destroyed a warehouse of ammunition for foreign weapons transferred to Ukraine by NATO countries, including 155-mm M777 howitzers supplied by the USA.

A large number of weapons and military equipment from the USA and European countries delivered to the Ukrainian grouping in Donbass have been destroyed near Dobropolye, Pokrovsk railway stations in Donetsk People's Republic and Orlovschina in Dnepropetrovsk region.

High-precision air-based missiles in Nikolaev region have destroyed aircraft of the Ukrainian air force at Voznesensk military airfield.

The attacks have resulted in the destruction of 1 airspace radar station near Lisichansk in Lugansk People's Republic, 1 Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile system near Soledar in Donetsk People's Republic, ammunition depots near Gorskoe and Verkhnekamensk in Lugansk People's Republic, and 2 AFU command posts and 1 communications centre near Pereezdnoe and Ivano-Dar'evka in Donetsk People's Republic.

Operational-tactical, army and unmanned aviation have hit 24 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration.

The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 300 nationalists, 1electronic warfare station near Malinovka in Kharkov Region, 10 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 3 Grad multiple rocket launchers, 18 special vehicles, 3 mortars and 11 field artillery mounts, including 4 M777 155-mm howitzers.

Russian air defence means have shot down 1 Su-25 aircraft of the Ukrainian air force near Krasnopol'e in Donetsk People's Republic.

Also, 6 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down near Donetsk city and Pavlovka in the Donetsk People's Republic, Balakleya, Malaya Kamyshevakha, Chervonyi Shakhter in Kharkov region, and Lisichansk in Lugansk People's Republic.

In addition, 12 shells of Uragan MLRS have been intercepted near Donetsk city and Gorskoe and Vasil'evka in Lugansk People's Republic.

Missile troops and artillery have hit 313 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, 43 command posts and 62 firing positions of AFU artillery units.

In total, from February 24th, 203 Ukrainian airplanes and 131 helicopters, 1,211 unmanned aerial vehicles, 339 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,558 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 524 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,958 field artillery and mortars, as well as 3,623 special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 83. The USA gave wrong explanations on its military bioactivity in Ukraine

June 16, 2022

On June 9th, 2022 the U.S. Department of Defense issued a “Fact Sheet on WMD Threat Reduction Efforts with Ukraine, Russia and Other Former Soviet Union Countries” where gave explanations on the American bio activity in Ukraine. Naturally, it denied any wrong doing in this domain [ https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3057517/fact-sheet-on-wmd-threat-reduction-efforts-with-ukraine-russia-and-other-former/].

The Pentagon only admitted that: “The United States has also worked collaboratively to improve Ukraine’s biological safety, security, and disease surveillance for both human and animal health, providing support to 46 peaceful Ukrainian laboratories, health facilities, and disease diagnostic sites over the last two decades.  The collaborative programs have focused on improving public health and agricultural safety measures at the nexus of nonproliferation”.

Such revelation “The collaborative programs have focused on improving public health and agricultural safety measures at the nexus of nonproliferation” entail a big question mark.

Is it so? Is it correct observation? No. No. No.

Too many real U.S.- Ukrainian documents collected so far portray quite a different picture.

The Russian Defence Ministry has collected a bid dossier of them. The issue is also under strict scrutiny inside the Russian MFA.

A special Parliamentary Commission has been set up to investigate the case from the lawmakers’ community.

Some documents of that kind have been presented to the world community during the number of briefings arranged by the Russian MoD.

They have been reflected in our Reports ## 15, 1721, 29, 33, 43, 59, 63 and 80 released in March-June 2022. The last one (# 80) entitled “Russia demands U.S. clarification on biolabs abroad” contained new questions to the USA from the Russian MFA. Some Reports have been accompanied by the PPT slides having photos of the documents mentioned in them. The current one has 7 new slides as an annex.

So, two Russian Governmental bodies (Russian MoD and MFA) and a legislative branch (the Russian Senate and the State Duma) continue to study materials on the implementation of military biological programs of the United States and its NATO allies on the territory of Ukraine. The obtained results will be additionally made public.

Under the Convention on the Prohibition of Biological and Toxin Weapons (BTW), each State Party submits an annual report in the form of a declaration of compliance with the requirements of the convention. It is currently the only reporting document on the implementation of the Convention in the framework of the Confidence Building Measures.

Due to the investigation of U.S. military and biological activities on the territory of Ukraine, many relative documents have been analysed and sent by these states to the UN.  So, it looks very strange that the Fact Sheet dated June 9th said: “On March 11 and 18, 2022, United Nations (UN) High Representative for Disarmament Affairs Izumi Nakamitsu similarly stated that the UN is not aware of any biological weapons programs in Ukraine. Those comments were reiterated on May 13, 2022, by the UN Deputy High Representative for Disarmament Affairs.”

It should be noted that neither Ukraine nor the United States provided information on cooperative biological research and development in the area of biological protection in the said submissions (in Form A, Part 2 "i"). Also, Poland and Germany have not declared engagement with Ukraine in their reports.

In addition, in these reports (Form F) for the period from 2016 to 2020, Ukraine states that: "The Government of Ukraine has not conducted and is not conducting any offensive or defensive activities in the framework of biological research and development programmes. The Government of Ukraine does not have any information on such activities of the former USSR on the territory of Ukraine since January 1, 1946".

This contradicts a May 20, 2022 statement by Lewis Gitter, U.S. Deputy Permanent Representative to the OSCE, that assistance to Kiev is aimed at "...reducing biological and veterinary risks, as well as securing the illegal stockpiles of biological weapons left behind by the USSR...".

In addition, there are numerous inconsistencies in Ukraine's reporting. Thus, the Confidence Building Measures form A for 2020 declares the complete absence of national biosecurity programmes. The Research Institute of Microbial Strain Biotechnology in Kiev, as a participant in the biological defence programme, is listed in part 2 "i" of this form.

In addition, the characteristics of the facility (area of laboratory facilities, number of staff) do not match the information previously submitted by Ukraine.

The question arises: Why did the US and Ukraine's reporting documents to the UN not include work under the joint military-biological projects codenamed UP? Such secrecy is another reason to think about the true goals of the Pentagon in Ukraine.

The official documents before you confirm that the Pentagon, represented by the US Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), is organizing work with a clear military-biological focus. Note the memorandum prepared by the Office of the US Secretary of Defense regarding the UP-2 project to map highly dangerous pathogens in Ukraine. The document notes that the main objective of this project is to collect information on the molecular composition of pathogens specific to Ukraine and to transfer samples of strains.

Separately, it is emphasised that this work should be in line with the main guidelines for the Ukraine Cooperative Threat Reduction Programme on Preventing the Spread of Biological Weapons on November 29, 2005.

A similar memorandum was prepared as part of the UP-1 project to study rickettsia and other diseases spread by arthropods. The document notes the need to transfer all collections of highly dangerous pathogens to a central reference laboratory in order to facilitate their orderly export to the USA.

As part of the Cooperative Threat Reduction Programme, an extensive UP-4 project was carried out to investigate the possibility of spreading highly dangerous infections through migratory birds. Documents received show that 991 biological samples were collected between November 2019 and January 2020 alone.

A total of ten such projects (including UP-3, UP-6, UP-8, UP-10) have been reported to have involved work with pathogens of particularly dangerous and economically important infections - Congo-Crimean fever, leptospirosis, tick-borne encephalitis and African swine fever.

There are numerous breaches of safety requirements in Ukrainian laboratories.

For example, work with dangerous pathogens under Pentagon control in Kharkov, Kiev and a number of other cities was carried out in laboratories with insufficient staff protection. However, according to official data, only three laboratories with a BSL-3 biosafety level are authorised to conduct such tests. These are the Odessa Anti-Plague Institute, the Lvov Research Institute of Epidemiology and Hygiene and the Public Health Centre in Kiev.

The Security Service of Ukraine noted the preconditions for the emergence of biological threats due to systematic violations and poor quality of work in the reconstruction of biolaboratories.

Black & Veatch, for example, declared that it spent UAH 37.8m on upgrading three veterinary laboratories in 2013. An independent expert review found that the actual cost of the work was overstated compared to the reported costs by UAH 17.7 millions.

This difference was reportedly sent to the accounts of fictitious companies such as Golden Ukraine, BK Profbudinvest and Capital Trade Agency, which further confirms the use of "grey" financial schemes in the personal interests of US and Ukrainian officials.

It is noteworthy that the US handlers demanded that the reference laboratory in Merefa be given a higher level of biosecurity. The Kharkovproject organisation said that this was not possible under the prevailing conditions and refused to approve the project. However, the regional administration decided to go ahead with the reconstruction. The facility was commissioned in circumvention of biosafety regulations and requirements. In doing so, the Pentagon's total cost for its modernization was around $15 million. But where the funds really went is unknown.

Note the report of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine on the results of an inspection of the strain collection of the Ukrainian anti-plague institute in Odessa, which totalled 654 samples. There were 32 strains of anthrax, 189 of tularemia, 11 of brucellosis and 422 of cholera in storage at the facility.

The report shows gross violations of storage conditions for micro-organisms, lack of access control and management systems and inadequate ventilation systems.

In April 2017, there was a case of internal laboratory infection with tick-borne encephalitis in one of the institute's laboratories as a result of a safety violation.

According to eyewitness accounts of an incident that took place in 2021, an employee of a biolaboratory removed several vials containing dangerous microorganisms from the institution's premises. The consequences of such cases can only be guessed at.

It should be noted that all violations occurred during the period of the US bio-threat reduction programme. This demonstrates that Washington's officially declared goals are merely a screen for the implementation of illegal military-biological activities in Ukraine.

The neglect of pathogens, the unprofessionalism and corruption of the executive branch, and the destructive influence of US handlers pose a direct threat to Ukrainian and European civilians.

Russian Defence Ministry experts have confirmed that Ukrainian biolaboratories are connected to the global communicable disease surveillance system.

The backbone of this network, which has been formed by the Pentagon since 1997, is the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research (Maryland). It includes land and naval laboratories as well as military bases around the world.

It should be noted that the deployment of such a network follows a typical scenario.

The Americans are initially concerned about the state of the epidemic in the region. The next step is to ensure that officials, particularly those in the health ministries, have an interest and a financial incentive to work together, and to enter into intergovernmental agreements. As a result, a biocontainment facility is erected and connected to the single biomonitoring system. All of the country's biological developments become the US domain. Moreover, restrictions are placed on local professionals' access to a range of tests, as well as on their results.

Meanwhile, the US Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) is actively implementing automated disease monitoring hardware and software, as well as systems to control access and movement of pathogenic biological agents in storage and research facilities.

Equipping biological facilities with these information systems as part of the Biological Threat Reduction Program allows the U.S. to secure its military contingents in deployment areas, remotely monitor biolaboratories outside national jurisdiction and influence the global biological environment.

As part of the special military operation, materials of US instructors training Ukrainian specialists in emergency response to smallpox outbreaks were discovered in biolaboratories in Ukraine.

The Pentagon's interest in this infection is far from accidental: the return of the smallpox pathogen would be a global catastrophe for all mankind.

Thus, compared to COVID-19, this pathogen is just as contagious (infectious), but its lethality is 10 times higher.

As early as 2003, the US Department of Defense established the Smallpox Vaccination Programme, which requires all US military personnel to be vaccinated. Vaccination in the United States is compulsory for diplomatic and medical personnel. This demonstrates that the US considers smallpox as a priority pathogenic biological agent for combat use, and that vaccine prophylaxis activities are aimed at protecting its own military contingents.

Lack of proper controls and biosecurity breaches in the US could lead to the use of this pathogen for terrorist purposes. Between 2014 and 2021, unaccounted-for vials of the virus were repeatedly found in laboratories at the Federal Drug Administration and the US Army Infectious Disease Research Institute (Maryland) and the Vaccine Research Centre (Pennsylvania).

Work at these organisations was in violation of World Health Assembly Resolution 49.10 of 1996, which stipulated that only one US laboratory, the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, could store smallpox pathogen.

It should be noted that smallpox vaccination, which is not currently available in many countries, provides protection against monkeypox.

The World Health Organization has announced an emergency meeting of Member States on the outbreak of this dangerous infectious disease in May 2022.

By now 98% of those affected are men over the age of 20 of non-traditional orientation. Earlier, Dr David Hermann, who heads WHO's emergency department, told the American press that sexual transmission was the main cause of the spread of the disease. According to a WHO report, the West African strain of monkeypox originated in Nigeria, another state in which the US has deployed its biological infrastructure.

According to available information, there are at least four Washington-controlled biolaboratories operating in Nigeria.

In this connection, it is worth recalling a strange coincidence that needs further specialist verification. For example, according to European and US media reports, the Munich Security Conference 2021, i.e. against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, was a scenario for dealing with an outbreak caused by a new strain of the monkeypox virus.

Against the backdrop of multiple US biosafety violations and the negligent storage of pathogenic biomaterials, we call on the World Health Organisation leadership to investigate the US-funded Nigerian laboratories in Abuja, Zaria, Lagos and inform the global community of the results.

 

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Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 84. New data related to illegal U.S. bioactivity in Ukraine

June 17, 2022

Additional Russian MoD briefing on the results of analysing documents related to the military-biological activity of the USA in Ukraine arranged on June 16th, 2022

The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation carries out its scheduled analytical work on the military-biological activity of the USA and its allies in various regions of the world, including Ukraine.

We have previously spoken about the experiments held by the employees of a laboratory in Merefa on the patients of a psychiatric clinic in Kharkov since 2019 to 2021. It has been noted that one of the organisers of this illegal activity was a US citizen Linda Oporto Al-Haroun.

The documents received during the special military operation have revealed that this kind of investigations has been carried out in Ukraine at least since 2011 and Al-Haroun repeatedly visited the branch of the Merefa laboratory built with funds of the Pentagon in Sorokovka, Kharkov region.

Despite the fact that this installation is provided with underground storage facilities and powerful ventilation systems, it is officially considered a company that produces food additives. At the same time, the site of the company bears clear signs of fictitiousness, while the equipment of the branch has been transported to the western regions of Ukraine under control of the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU).

It confirms our concerns about the numerous violations of the international humanitarian law in Ukraine that are also defined by the Nuremberg Code and the Helsinki Declaration of the World Medical Association. They include: the voluntary consent of an individual to participate in an experiment; informing about the investigation to be carried out; prevention of excessive physical and mental suffering during an experiment, as well as tortures, inhumane or degrading treatment.

According to the available information, highly active neuropeptides were tested on socially vulnerable citizens of Ukraine that caused irreversible damage to the central nervous system. This is a clear violation of the international treaties related to human rights.

We have already mentioned the role of the Scientific-Technological Centre of Ukraine (STCU) in the military-biological programme of the USA in Ukraine.

I would like to focus on the P-268 project. The National University named after Taras Shevchenko in Kiev and the Colorado State University were involved in its implementation.

Note STCU Executive Director Andrew Hood's appeal to the U.S. Department of State to organise researches within the project. He states that '...more than 30% of the participants are former scientists experienced in developing weapons of mass destruction...'.

The objective of the project is to study viruses capable of infecting Aedes mosquitoes. According to the terms of reference, the viral preparation was produced by the institute in Kiev and delivered to the USA for aerobiological studies.

The interest of the American clients in mosquitoes of this species that are vectors of transmissible infections such as dengue fever, Zika and yellow fever is not accidental.

During the last major outbreak of yellow fever in Africa (in 2013), there were 170 thousand cases of the severe form of this disease, including 60 thousand that resulted in death.

Everyone remembers the smallpox virus contamination of blankets for Native Americans, the deliberate infection with the syphilis pathogen by Guatemalan citizens is less discussed while this fact has been admitted by the U.S. President Barack Obama. The use of pesticides during the Vietnam War is even less remembered, but the history of deliberate outbreaks in Cuba in the 1970s and 1980s is completely suppressed. At the same time, the use of Aedes mosquitoes as biological weapons, exactly the same ones operated by the U.S. military department, is recorded in the class action suit of Cuban citizens against the U.S. government and was submitted to the member States of the Biological Weapons Convention.

The class action notes that the 1981 dengue epidemic in Cuba that contaminated 345 thousand people and resulted in the death of 158 persons was the result of the spread of the second dengue virus serotype that had not previously been recorded in the Caribbean and had clear signs of a deliberate nature. Thus, the time of the attack (late January) was chosen in consideration of biological features of the life cycle of mosquito vectors and was optimal for the subsequent development of the epidemic process. In addition, the only place on the island where no cases have been reported was the U.S. Naval Base at Guantanamo due to pre-vaccination of soldiers against the dengue virus type 2.

An artificial outbreak of another viral disease, African swine fever (ASF), occurred in Cuba in 1971. During the epizootic, 500 thousand animals were eliminated and the country suffered a significant economic damage. Although no cases of ASF have been previously reported in the American continent nor in the Western Hemisphere in general, it was Cuba where the disease has appeared.

Former FBI official William Turner introduced some clarity to this issue by telling the Newsday that the CIA delivered a container of ASF agent from Fort Gulick in Panama and transferred it off the coast of Cuba to a fishing vessel. He precisely indicated the farm where this pathogen was introduced.

Since 1980 to 1982, the Cuban leadership reported numerous unusual outbreaks of viral infections of economically important crops (sugar cane and tobacco) that appeared in different regions of the country and were not related to each other.

Yet these facts are only part of the U.S. military-biological dossier, while their investigation is ignored by the United Nations and the World Health Organization.

Despite the assurances of the United States that the biological research in Ukraine is carried out exclusively in the field of civilian healthcare, there are documents that confirm the direct cooperation between the military departments of these countries.

I would like to draw attention to the Notice of Inclusion of Laboratories of the Central Sanitary and Epidemiological Department of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine in the Biological Threat Reduction Program. It notes that '...the program enables cooperation between the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence and the U.S. Department of Defence, as well as creates legal principles for its further expansion...'.

Since 2015 that was the beginning of large-scale financing of Ukrainian projects by the Pentagon, numerous cases of infectious diseases have been recorded among servicemen and residents of the Lugansk and Donetsk people's republics.

According to the report of the Ministry of Healthcare of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), '...in 2016, the tularaemia morbidity increased 9.5 times in comparison with 2007. There have been also noted distinctive features in the structure of morbidity, including an increase in the number of servicemen among the contaminated people...'.

Here is a list of tularemia cases in the DPR.

For security reasons, we do not reveal their personal data, this information has been sent to the Investigative Committee of Russia.

I remind that NATO guidance documents (Guidelines for the Assessment of Radiation, Chemical, Biological and Nuclear Casualties) consider tularaemia as one of the prioritised biological agents. This is the agent that was used in the military exercises of the alliance at the training grounds in Sweden, with official confirmation in 2012.

I would also like to note that there have been several dozen outbreaks of hepatitis A since 2017 until now in 12 regions of Ukraine where biological facilities controlled by the Pentagon are located and have been in operation. More than 10 thousand people have resulted contaminated, and in most cases the cause of the disease has not been not identified.

Analysis of documents on the activities of the Defence Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) in Ukraine implies that one of the prioritised tasks of DTRA is to train field epidemiologists. Within this training course, the U.S. side has actively been introducing its own standards for diagnosing infectious diseases that do not correspond to current public healthcare problems.

I remind that in 2015, the World Health Organisation declared Ukraine a country with a high risk of polio outbreak and the fight against this particularly dangerous disease is an obvious priority.

In this context, the attention is to be drawn to the response of the Project Manager at DTRA office in Ukraine Brendt Siegel to the regional representative of the World Health Organisation. It states that the biological threat reduction program implemented in Ukraine '...does not suppose studies of such diseases as poliomyelitis...'. The arisen question is: what diseases relevant to Ukraine are mentioned?

After the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, the United States developed and implemented a plan to evacuate the Ukrainian citizens who were involved in the biomonitoring system in order to '...prevent a leak of sensitive information...'. This raises additional questions about the operation of the abovementioned system and its real purposes.

We have already noted that Hunter Biden was instrumental in creating the financial opportunity to work with pathogens in Ukraine by securing funds for Black & Veach and Metabiotics companies.

The published correspondence of Biden with the administration of the Rosemont Seneca Investment Fund shows the use of administrative resources and blatant lobbying of Metabiota's interests in U.S. government.

Managing Director John Delosch asks Biden: '...Is there anyone we can call in Washington to get an idea of how seriously Metabiotics is being considered by various government agencies?'

This kind of wording raises the question of the personal financial interest of Biden and other co-founders of Rosemont Seneca in the implementation of the Pentagon's military-biological programme in Ukraine, as well as the presence of a corrupt component.

The apparent lack of investment appeal of projects aimed to reconstruct Ukrainian biolaboratories raises doubts about the transparency of ongoing financial activities. In addition, funding from non-State sources such as the Biden Foundation, allows the Pentagon not to report to the Senate Budget Committee on the objectives and results of bioweapons research in Ukraine, hiding them from the public thereby.

The analysed documents of the investment agencies subordinated to Biden do not contain any information about payments to beneficiaries and distribution of dividends. It indicates the concealment of profits with high probability and is a sign of illegal payment schemes and tax evasion that is a serious violation of the U.S. law.

In addition, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that on June 9, the Pentagon website published an official statement about U.S. biological activities in the post-Soviet countries. The U.S. administration admits the funding of 46 Ukrainian biolaboratories and the relations between the U.S. Department of Defence and the Scientific-Technological Centre of Ukraine (STCU). [1]

At the same time, it reflects the peculiarities of the implementation of the Nunn-Lugar joint threat reduction programme in the post-Soviet countries, one of the purposes of which was the involvement of '...thousands of former Soviet scientists specialised in biological weapons...' allegedly to '...exclude the possibility of their cooperation with terrorist groups...'.

This kind of attempt of the U.S. administration to whitewash its tarnished reputation turned out to be a 'prosecutor's dream': the document cites facts of the Pentagon's military-biological activities in Ukraine and other countries of the former Soviet Union, as well as indicates the accomplices of the American military department: the State Department and the U.S. Department of Energy.

However, the 'clarifications' provided by the USA do not answer the questions we have posed:

Why was the work commissioned by the Pentagon, while its subject matter did not correspond to the current problems of public healthcare in Ukraine?

What was the purpose of the participation of U.S. military officials in biological research in Ukraine, while the work was carried out under conditions of secrecy with restricted access of Ukrainian professionals to information and facilities?

Why were strains of pathogenic microorganisms, potential agents of biological weapons, and biomaterials of Ukrainian citizens exported from the country without clearly declared purposes?

Why do the U.S. and Ukraine obscure the military-biological cooperation in international reports under the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC), while the U.S. has been blocking the development of its verification mechanism since 2001?

Why are U.S. officials, including Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, so concerned about the possibility of the activities held by the U.S. Defence Department in Ukraine and the materials in the biolaboratories taken over by Russian specialists?

Thus, the situation presented in the Pentagon statement is just a screen under the guise of which the United States carries out its activities in circumvention of international agreements and continues to build up its military-biological capabilities. At the same time, Ukraine is assigned for playing the role of a testing ground, collecting biological materials and studying the specifics of the spread of infectious diseases.

Analyitical Agency “Strategic Stability”

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[1]  . On June 9th, 2022 the U.S. Department of Defense issued a “Fact Sheet on WMD Threat Reduction Efforts with Ukraine, Russia and Other Former Soviet Union Countries” where gave explanations on the American bio activity in Ukraine. The relevant PPT slides are attached separately.

 

Report # 85. Russian MoD: exact number of foreign mercenaries in Ukraine

 

 

June 18, 2022

 

On June 17, 2022 Russian Ministry of Defence published data on number of foreign mercenaries fighting in Ukraine.

Against the backdrop of the Kiev regime's mounting military failures and massive daily losses in manpower and equipment, the flow of foreign mercenaries to Ukraine has not only decreased, but is actually turning in the opposite direction. Despite the Kiev regime's efforts and increased payments, the process of mercenaries leaving to the "other world" or back to their countries of residence has not been stopped by the Kiev leadership.

Recent empty statements about almost "20,000" foreigners "fighting" against the Russian Armed Forces are just plain lies.

The Russian Defence Ministry monitors and records the presence in Ukraine of every representative of this international gathering of such "headless horsemen".

Moreover, it is not only mercenaries directly involved in combat operations as part of Ukrainian units that are now included in Russian databases. Moscow also takes into account the trainers who have come to train, assist in the operation and repair of Western weapons supplied to Ukraine.

The accumulated statistics include:

Among European countries, Poland is the undisputed leader in terms of the number of mercenaries both arriving and dying. Since the beginning of the special military operation, 1,831 people have arrived in Ukraine, of whom 378 have already been killed and 272 mercenaries have departed for their homeland. It is followed by Romania with 504 arrivals, 102 deaths and 98 departures. The UK is in third place: 422 arrivals, 101 deaths, 95 departures.

Among the Americas, Canada leads the way: 601 arrivals, 162 deaths, 169 departures. The USA comes second: 530 arrivals, 214 deaths, 227 departures.

From the Middle East, Transcaucasus and Asia the largest number, 355 mercenaries, came from Georgia, of whom 120 died and 90 left Ukraine. Then there are 200 terrorist fighters redeployed from the US-controlled areas of Jazira region in Syria. To date, 80 have been eliminated and 66 have left Ukraine.

In total, the lists as at June 17, 2022, include mercenaries and weapons operating specialists from 64 countries. Since the beginning of the special military operation, 6,956 people have arrived in Ukraine, 1,956 have already been eliminated and 1,779 have left the country..

As long as 3,321 mercenaries are alive, not yet captured, or have not yet escaped to the Ukrainian border.

The PPT chart to this Report is attached separately.

 

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Analyitical Agency “Strategic Stability”

 

 

 

Report # 86. Kiev intensified shelling of civilian areas in Donbass

June 20, 2022

1. Situation on the battleground

Kiev continues to terrorize the civilian population of Donbass, shelling the civilian infrastructure of the front-line settlements which do not pose any danger to the enemy and where there are no military facilities. If earlier they shelled two or three districts of Donetsk, nowadays they shell all its nine city districts. Each day they fire nearly 300-500 missiles, mines and rockets at the DPR and LPR. The AFU fired more than three hundred shells from multiple launch rocket systems “Hurricane”, BM-21 “Grad”, cannon artillery caliber 155, 152 and 122- mm, as well as mortars with a caliber of 120, 82 and 60 mm. Three civilians were killed and six were injured. Thirty-two residential buildings, eight civilian infrastructure facilities and thirteen vehicles were damaged.

On the other hand, the enemy suffers considerable losses during the Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine. Ukrainian troops have been slowly losing territory to Russia and allied forces in Donbass, even as NATO nations supply more sophisticated weapons to Kiev. Several Ukrainian officials have stated that the pledge to not use foreign weapons to attack targets in Russia does not apply to Crimea and Donbass, which Kiev considers part of its territory.

On June 19th, offensive towards Severodonetsk is being successfully developed. Units of People's Militia of the Lugansk People's Republic supported by the Russian Federation Armed Forces have liberated the settlement of Metyolkino.

Several units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are abandoning the operation area due to low moral and psychological condition, as well as lack of munitions and logistic supply. Thus, a platoon of the 1st company of the 1st battalion from the 57th Mechanised Infantry Brigade that had been defending near Lisichansk left heavy armament and abandoned its position.

At 12.30 PM, Kalibr high-precision long-distance sea-based missiles were launched at a command post of the Ukrainian troops near the village of Shirokaya Dacha (Dnepropetrovsk region) at the moment when there was being held a working meeting of the commanders of Aleksandriya operational-strategic group. The attack has resulted in eliminating more than 50 generals and officers of the AFU, including those of the General Staff, the Kakhovka group, airborne assault troops and units that operate towards Nikolayev and Zaporozhye.

At 08.20 AM, Kalibr high-precision long-distance missiles destroyed 10 M777 155-mm howitzers and up to 20 armoured combat vehicles delivered by the West to the Kiev regime over the past 10 days that were located in a transformer plant in Nikolayev.

At 07.20 AM, high-precision air-based missiles neutralized an echelon of personnel, armament and military equipment of the 1st battalion from the 14th Independent Mechanised Brigade that arrived from Vladimir-Volynskiy to the operation area in Donbass.

The attack at the disembarkment point near Gubinikha railway station (Dnepropetrovsk region) has resulted in eliminating more than 100 servicemen of the AFU, 30 tanks and armoured combat vehicles.

At 02.05 AM, the AFU 56th Mechanised Infantry Brigade manpower and military equipment have been neutralised near Selidovo (Donetsk People's Republic). The attack has resulted in the elimination of up to 20 militants, including foreign mercenaries that formed part of the abovementioned brigade, as well as 2 combat vehicles equipped with Grad multiple rocket-launching system, 10 infantry combat vehicles and armoured personnel carriers. 7 Grad system platoons and 1 artillery platoon have been neutralised at their firing positions towards Donetsk within counter-battery warfare.

Operational-tactical and army aviation have destroyed 4 artillery missile and munitions depots near Maksimilyanovka, Avdeyevka, Zelyonoye Pole and Georgiyevka (Donetsk People's Republic), as well as 1 launching ramp of Buk-M1 air defence missile system near Seversk (Lugansk People's Republic).

Missile troops and artillery have neutralised 22 command posts, 48 artillery units at their firing positions, the AFU manpower and military equipment in 123 areas.

An attack launched by Iskander operational-tactical missile system at Kharkov tank reparation plant has resulted in destroying 2 launching ramps of Uragan multiple rocket-launching system.

Ukrainian Armed Forces suffer considerable losses caused by counter-battery warfare. A serviceman from the 22nd Mechanised Infantry Brigade of the AFU captured near Peremoga has told that the artillery units involved in operation towards Kharkov had lost 380 servicemen, including 90 who resulted dead over the past 10 days.

Attacks launched by aviation, missile troops and artillery over the past 24 hours have resulted in eliminating more than 400 nationalists, 10 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 11 field artillery mounts, 11 launching ramps of multiple rocket-launching systems and 28 special vehicles.

Russian air defence troops have shot down 1 Su-25 airplane of the Ukrainian Air Force near Chervonnaya Dolina (Nikolayev region).In addition, 8 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down near Zavody, Chervonniy Shakhtyor, Dementiyevka, Glubokoye (Kharkov region), Krinitsa (Kherson region), Popasnaya (Lugansk People's Republic) and near the Snake Island.

3 Tochka-U tactical missiles have been intercepted near Novozvanovka and Novoaleksandrovka (Lugansk People's Republic), 2 projectiles launched by Uragan multiple rocket-launching system near Bolshiye Prokhody (Kharkov region) and Chervonnaya Dolina (Nikolayev region). High-precision air and ground weapons in the areas of Kremenchug and Lisichansk have destroyed technological facilities for oil refining and fuel storage intended to supply Ukrainian military equipment in Donbass.

High-precision air-based missiles have hit 12 firing positions of AFU artillery and mortar units, including 4 platoons of Grad multiple-launch rocket systems near Avdeevka, Keramik and Zhelannoe and 4 platoons of M777 155-mm howitzers near Lastochkino, Ochertino, Vodyanoe and Zhelannoye in Donetsk People's Republic. Since May 19, during the month, only the 14th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU has lost 2,100 persons who resulted dead and wounded. Due to low moral and psychological conditions, 800 persons destined for replenishing the losses of this unit, refused to go to the operational area and accused officers of incompetence, bribery and nepotism in paying money allowance. A considerable part of the commanders of the 30th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU have abstracted themselves from managing their units and refuse to fulfil combat tasks. All kinds of pretexts are used for simulating illness. The majority of units have already been left without any officers. About 100 servicemen of a reconnaissance unit of the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade have been relieved of combat duty and transported to Kremenchug for investigation.

On June 20th, Ukrainian attacked drilling rigs off the coast of Crimea in the Black Sea, the head of the Russian region, Sergey Aksyonov, said in a statement. He added that the rigs were manned by 12 workers, five of whom have been rescued so far, including three with injuries. The same day Oniks high-precision missile launched by Bastion coastal missile system has striken Artsiz airfield in Odessa region. The attack has resulted in destroying a control station for Bayraktar-TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and 2 UAVs of this system on  the ground.

Within the counter-battery warfare, 11 platoons of Grad multiple rocket-launching systems have been neutralised near Kurtimovka, Ochertino, Tonenkoye, Sukhaya Balka, Novgorodskoye, Mayorovka, Otradovka and Zaytsevo over the past 24 hours.

In addition, 12 artillery platoons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have been neutralised at their firing positions near Dzerzhinsk, Novgorodskoye, Nikolayevka, Leninskoye and Zaytsevo.

Two more U.S.-made M777 155-mm howitzers and their crews have been eliminated near Podgornoye. Operational-tactical and army aviation has neutralised 47 manpower and equipment concentration areas. The eliminated targets include: manpower and military equipment near Vesyoloye, Privolchye and Bogorodichnoye (Donetsk People's Republic), a launching ramp of Buk-M1 MLRS near Seversk (Donetsk People's Republic), as well as illumination and observation radar of S-300 air defence missile system near Novodruzhesk (the LPR).

Missile troops and artillery have neutralised 148 manpower and military equipment concentration areas of the AFU, 25 command posts, as well as 59 artillery units at their firing positions. Attacks launched by aviation, missile troops and artillery have resulted in 450 nationalists, 13 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, as well as 16 special vehicles.

Russian air defence systems have shot down 1 MiG-29 of the Ukrainian Air Force near Apostolovo (Dnepropetrovsk region). In addition, 9 Ukrainian UAVs have been shot down near Alisovka (Kharkov region), Verkhnetoretskoye (Donetsk People's Republic), Grechishkino (Lugansk People's Republic), mound Mogila Kulicha, Tomina Balka and Chernobayevka (Kherson region).

9 projectiles launched by Uragan multiple-launching system have been intercepted near Malaya Kamyshevakha and Dolgenkoye (Kharkov region), Makeyevka and Avdeyevka (Donetsk People's Republic).

In total, From February 24th till now, 208 airplanes and 132 helicopters, 1,260 unmanned aerial vehicles, 345 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,696 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 576 combat vehicles equipped with multiple rocket-launching systems, 2,055 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 3,731 special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

Many Russian experts demand that the Russian Armed Forces should knock down any NATO military transport air planes delivering heavy weapons as soon as they cross Western border of Ukraine, thus not permitting Kiev to deliver heavy weapons next to Donbass-Ukrainian line of combat operations where they are mainly used to kill civilians.

2. Humanitarian situation in general

The Russian Federation's Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response (JCHQHR) reported that in cooperation with the competent federal executive authorities and law enforcement agencies, continues to record the facts of criminal actions by Kiev's regime against the civilians of Ukraine and Donbass republics, as well as the use of civilian infrastructure by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Ukrainian nationalists for military purposes:

a) in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk region, AFU and territorial defence units are stationed in school (Shevchenko Street), and military equipment and artillery are deployed in the immediate vicinity of the school;

b) in Parkhomovka, Kharkov Region, soldiers of the Ukrainian armed forces and foreign mercenaries are stationed in the building of the cultural centre, while armoured vehicles, artillery and multiple rocket launchers are located on the adjacent territory;

c) in Nikolaev, Ukrainian nationalists have equipped firing positions on the lower and upper floors of residential buildings (Kosmonautov Street), with an anti-aircraft gun mounted on the roof of one of the buildings. Local residents are forcibly detained in said residences;

d) in Kramatorsk, Donetsk People's Republic, nationalists have equipped firing positions and sniper points on the territory of kindergarten No. 93 (Proizdnaya Street), and approaches to the building are mined, but the local population is deliberately not informed about this;

e) in Odessa, Ukrainian militants have equipped a stronghold in school No 113 (Black Sea Cossacks Street) and placed heavy weapons and equipment in the courtyard;

f) in Toretsk, Donetsk People's Republic, AFU servicemen have equipped barracks and firing positions on the territory of the power plant, boarding school (Glinka Street), young technicians' station (Shakhteher Avenue), school No 2 (Gogol Street) and school No 5 (Liberators of Donbas Street) and a stronghold and weapons storage facilities in a multi-storey residential building (Tereshkova Street). Local residents are forbidden to leave their flats, and all attempts by citizens to evacuate to safe areas are severely curtailed.

Such actions by Kiev once again demonstrate an inhuman attitude towards the fate of its own citizens and show a complete disregard for all norms of morality and international humanitarian law. The crimes of the Kiev regime are still ignored by the world community and international organizations.

In addition, according to reliable information, it has been established that Ukrainian special services in Nikolaev have organized the preparation of video clips of allegedly destroyed private households and local residents left homeless as a result of shelling by the Russian Armed Forces. More than 40 actors were involved in the staged video filming and all participants were paid cash reward of $25. In the future, the staged footage will be distributed in the Ukrainian and Western media, accusing the Russian Armed Forces of indiscriminate strikes against civilian targets.

Once again JCHQHR emphasized to the entire international community that such fakes, cultivated by the Ukrainian "lie factory" at the order of Western curators, do not contain reliable and objective information. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation treat civilians extremely humanely and do not strike at civilian infrastructure.

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles imposed by the Ukrainian side, over the past day, without the participation of Kiev, 29,733 people were evacuated from dangerous areas, 3,502 of them children, and in total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 1,936,911 people have already been evacuated, of which 307,423 are children.

More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centres continue to operate in the regions of the Russian Federation. The refugees are dealt with on an individual basis and are promptly assisted with various pressing issues relating to onward accommodation, employment assistance, places for children in kindergartens and educational institutions, and the provision of entitlements to social benefits.

Over the past 24 hours, the hotline of the Interdepartmental Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, federal executive authorities, constituent entities of the Russian Federation and various NGOs received 52 requests from foreign and Ukrainian citizens to evacuate to Russia, the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, as well as to the Russian Armed Forces-controlled areas of Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, Kharkov and Kherson regions. In total there are 2,758,298 such appeals from 2,139 locations in Ukraine in the database.

Since March 2nd, 33,143.2 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 1,183 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 5 actions in Kharkov and Kherson regions, as well as in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republic, during which 581.1 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

On June 18, 6 humanitarian actions have been planned and are currently being carried out in Zaporozhye and Kharkov regions, in Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, during which 468 tons of basic necessities, medicine and food will be distributed.

3. Kiev still blocks the delivery of grain from Ukraine via sea

Kiev artificially continues to raise the issue of its ‘inability of sell grain abroad via the Black Sea’. At the same time, 70 foreign vessels from 16 countries still remain blocked in 6 Ukrainian ports (Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhniy) due to Kiev’s lack of desire to deactivate its sea mines it has places at the Black Sea. The threat of shelling and high mine danger posed by official Kiev prevents vessels from entering the high seas unhindered. At the same time, the Kiev authorities continue to avoid engaging with representatives of states and ship-owning companies to resolve the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area.

As a result of the measures taken by the Russian Navy, the mine threat in the waters of the port of Mariupol at the Azov Sea has been eliminated and measures are being taken to restore the port infrastructure.

The Russian Armed Forces have created conditions for the operation of two maritime “blue-water’ humanitarian corridors, which are safe lanes for ships:

a) in the Black Sea - to leave Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhnyi ports in a south-westerly direction from Ukraine's territorial sea, 139 miles long and 3 miles wide;

b) in the Sea of Azov, to leave Mariupol port 115 miles long and 2 miles wide towards the Black Sea.

Detailed information in English and Russian on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridor is broadcast daily every 15 minutes on VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels in English and Russian.

The Russian Federation is taking a full range of comprehensive measures to ensure the safety of civilian navigation in the waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report # 87. Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered considerable losses

          June 23, 2022

1. Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered heavy losses

Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) that started to attack Donbass daily from April 2014 continue to shell indiscriminately civilians living in that Russian-speaking area.

Over the past two days, according to information from the DPR, (AFU) fired more than 400 shells from Uragan, BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers, 155mm, 152mm and 122mm barrel artillery, as well as 120mm mortars.

The shelling occurred in the areas of thirteen settlements of the Republic. As a result of the shelling, one civilian was killed and thirteen were wounded, of whom three were children. Twenty-nine residential houses, seven civilian infrastructure and one vehicle were damaged.

At the same time, Russian troops reported on the progress of the special military operation conducted in Ukraine with the aim to defend civilians in Donbass.

AFU suffer considerable losses.

On June 21, an attack launched by high-precision armament of Russian Aerospace Forces resulted in the elimination of up to 500 servicemen of the 59th Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), as well as their armament y military equipment deployed in the workshops of Okean (Ocean) shipyard located in Nikolayev.

Servicemen of a battalion from the 57th Mechanised Infantry Brigade that had been defending near Gorskoye, Podlesnoye, Vrubovka (Lugansk People's Republic) refused to obey the order of their command and abandoned all their positions after losing more than 60 per cent of personnel.

Operational-tactical and army aviation have eliminated: 5 munitions depots of the AFU near Sidorovo, Verkhnyaya Kamenka (the DPR) and Miropolye (Sumy Region), one Buk-M1 air defence missile system near Kurakhovo (the DPR), as well as manpower and military equipment in 151 areas.

Missile troops and artillery have neutralised 253 manpower and military equipment concentration areas of the AFU, as well as 6 munitions depots near Lisichansk, Verkhnekamenka, Mirnaya Dolina, Loskutovka and Podlesnoye (the LPR).

A fuel terminal that provided the AFU military equipment with fuel has been destroyed in Nikolayev.

Within the counter-battery warfare, 13 Ukrainian multiple rocket launcher plattoons have been neutralised near Ostroye, Gornyak, Kodema, Dzerzhinsk, Kalinovo, Zoryanoye, Dmitrov, Novolugansk, Novgorodskoye, Leninskoye, as well as 10 cannon artillery plattoons at their firing positions near Stepnaya Dolina (Nikolayev Region), Spartak, Podgornoye, Nikolayevka, Leninskoye, Zaytsevo, Semigorye and Dzerzhinsk.

 A U.S.-manufactured AN-TPQ artillery reconnaissance station has been destroyed near Nikolskoye (the DPR).

Attacks launched by aviation, missile troops and artillery have resulted in the elimination of more than 620 nationalists, 24 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, as well as 27 special vehicles.

Russian air defence means have show down 1 Su-25 of the Ukrainian Air Force near Barmashevo (Nikolayev region) and 1 MiG-29 near Apostolovo (Dnepropetrovsk region). In addition, 16 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been show down near Bolshiye Prokhody, Malaya Kamyshevakha, Novodmitrovskoye, Vesyoloye, Belyayevkam Brazhkovka, Chervonoye, Dolgenkoye, Suligovka, Yasinovatoye and Zmeiniy (Snake) Island. 3 Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missiles have been intercepted near Pashkovo (Kharkov Region) and Novaya Kakhovka (Kherson Region), as well as 14 projectiles of a multiple rocket launcher near Snake Island, Yasinovataya (the DPRl), Novosyolovka (the LPR) and Suligovka (Kharkov Region).

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have launched attacks at the positions of M777 155-mm howitzers delivered from USA and European countries to Ukrainian nationalists. Russian artillery reconnaissance units have determined the coordinates of the positions where U.S.-manufactured howitzers were deployed.  The precise impact has resulted in the elimination of two platoons of the U.S.-manufactured howitzers and its munitions.

Over the past 24 hours, within the counter-battery warfare, Russian artillery units have destroyed 15 M777 howitzers delivered from USA and European countries to Ukrainian nationalists.

A batch of seven German 155-millimeter self-propelled PzH 2000 howitzers have arrived in Ukraine, the FRG defense minister confirmed to lawmakers on June 21. They will be destroyed as well.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov announced that some MLRS M142 HIMARS arrived to Ukraine.

It is one more proof that the USA is a direct aggressor versus Donbass and declared an undeclared war against Russia, because these systems will be used vs it.


An interesting linkage: neo-Nazis in Ukraine are being helped by neo-Nazi currently entrenched in the USA and Europe


Russia’s MoD will monitor how Ukraine’s Armed Forces use the weapons being delivered from Germany and the USA, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on June 23. The statement came after Peskov was asked if Moscow was willing to trust Ukraine’s promises to Western countries that it will not use the weapons it is being provided to carry out attacks on Russia. “We carefully record all episodes of the use of these weapons,” the spokesperson replied. “So, if any of these weapons reach the front lines and are not destroyed by our military, we will track how they are being used.”

Meanwhile, the defeated 34th Battalion of the 57th Mechanised Infantry Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) has lost over 150 persons killed and about 450 persons wounded near Mirnaya Dolina (Lugansk People's Republic).

There are no more than 15-20 soldiers left in each company of this battalion. Junior commanders have abandoned their personnel and deserted from the operations area.

Units of the 30th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU near Klinovoye (Donetsk People's Republic) have been left with less than 50% of personnel as a result of attacks launched by the Russian Armed Forces. More than 170 other critically wounded soldiers and officers have been evacuated by their command from the operations area.

On June 22, high-precision armament of Russian Aerospace Forces eliminated 49 fuel storage facilities designed for AFU military equipment, as well as up to 50 combat vehicles with multiple rocket launchers in hangars, including foreign-manufactured ones.

High-precision armament of Russian Aerospace Forces has also neutralised 3 armoured vehicle reparation bases near Nikolayev, 4 command posts, manpower and military equipment at 18 areas.

Operational-tactical and army aviation has eliminated manpower and military equipment at 96 areas and 1 radar post near Konstantinovka (Kharkov Region).

Missile troops and artillery has neutralised 26 command posts, AFU manpower and military equipment at 364 areas, as well as Ukrainian artillery units at 58 areas, including 1 platoon of M-777 155-mm howitzers on Kubansky island and 1 platoon of Smerch MLRS near Novopokrovskoye (Donetsk People's Republic). Three unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) mobile control posts have been destroyed near Zhovtnevaya, Kiselyovka and Barmashovo (Nikolayev Region).

Within the counter-battery warfare towards Donetsk, high-precision armament of Russian Aerospace Forces, missile troops and artillery have neutralised: 8 Ukrainian platoons of Uragan MRLS near Avdeyevka, Vesyoloye, Dzerzhinsk, Novoluganskoye and Kurdyumovka, as well as 11 AFU cannon artillery platoons at their firing positions near Novopokrovskoye, Galitsinovka, Artyomovsk, Chasov-Yar, Krutaya Balka, Avdeyevka, Novovesyolovka and near Kleban-Byk water storage basin that had been shelling the city of Donetsk and other settlements of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Attacks launched by aviation, missile troops and artillery have resulted in the elimination of over 650 nationalists, 17 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 3 combat vehicles with Smerch MLRS, as well as 17 special vehicles.

Russian air defence troops have destroyed 21 Ukrainian UAVs near Snake Island, Petropolye, Strelechye, Malaya Kamyshevakha, Dementiyevka (Kharkov Region), Skadovsk (Kherson region), Donetsk, Gorlovka, Donetskiy (Donetsk People's Republic), Gorskoye, Oknino (Lugansk People's Republic) and Novaya Sburyevka (Kherson Region).

One Tochka-U ballistic missile has been intercepted near Peski Ratkovskiye (Kharkov region) and 22 MRLS projectiles near Donetsk, Makeyevka, Gorlovka, Kamyshevakha (Donetsk People's Republic), Chervonoye, Izyum, Sukhaya Kamenka (Kharkov region) and above Snake Island.


From February 24th till now, in total, 211 airplanes and 132 helicopters,

1,329 unmanned aerial vehicles, 349 anti-aircraft missile systems,

3,750 tanks and other armored combat vehicles,

647 combat vehicles equipped with multiple rocket-launching systems,

2,088 field artillery cannons and mortars,

as well as 3,818 special military equipment have been destroyed


Food for thought:

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in an interview that the Ukraine crisis will be a long conflict and Russia will no longer trust the West. "Yes, it will be a long-lasting crisis, but we'll never trust [the] West anymore," Peskov said in an NBC interview that aired on June 21st when asked if the Ukraine conflict would last a long time.

 

2. Situation at the Black Sea

70 foreign vessels from 16 countries remain blocked in six Ukrainian ports (Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhniy). The threat of shelling and high mine danger posed by official Kiev prevent vessels from entering the high seas unhindered. The Kiev authorities continue to avoid engaging with representatives of states and ship-owning companies to resolve the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area.

As a result of a series of measures taken by the Russian Navy, the Mariupol harbour continues being under mine clearance works, the port infrastructure is routinely under reconstruction. One foreign vessel has left this seaport.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have created the necessary conditions for the operation of two maritime ‘blue-water’ humanitarian corridors that constitute safe lanes for navigation:

a) in the Black Sea (every day from 08:00 AM to 07:00 PM) to leave Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhnyi ports towards south-west from Ukraine's territorial sea, 139 miles long and 3 miles wide;

b) in the Sea of Azov (uninterruptedly) to leave Mariupol port, 115 miles long and 2 miles wide, towards the Black Sea.

Detailed information on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridors is broadcast daily every 15 minutes by VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels in English and Russian.

The danger to navigation from Ukrainian mines drifting off their anchors along the coasts of Black Sea states remains.

Since March 2nd, 34,618.7 tonnes of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered by the Russian Federation to Ukraine, 1,197 humanitarian campaigns have been carried out, including 4 campaigns in the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, as well as in Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, during which 614.5 tonnes of humanitarian aid were distributed to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

On June 21, 2022, four humanitarian campaigns are being carried out in the Donetsk People's Republic, in Zaporozhye, Kharkov and Kherson regions, during which 253.5 tonnes of basic necessities, medicine and food are distributed.

3. Humanitarian situation

Russian Armed Forces continues to record the facts of criminal acts by the Kiev regime against the civilian population in Ukraine and the People's Republics of Donbas, as well as the use of medical infrastructure for military purposes:

a) in the polyclinic №29 in Odessa (Akademika Zabolotnogo Street), Ukrainian Territorial Defence units have deployed their manpower, as well as artillery and MLRS in the adjacent territory, while all the patients have been cynically banned from the medical institution regardless of their health condition;

b) in the central urban hospital in Avdeyevka (Kommunalnaya Street), the DPR, nationalists have deployed their firing positions and sniper points, the approaches to the institution have been mined, but the local population has not been informed about it;

c) in Privolye (Lomonosova Street), the LPR, AFU have deployed a strongpoint in the mental health hospital of Lisichansk, munitions and armament depots, armoured vehicles and artillery guns, while civilians are being forcibly retained in the basement.

d) In Slavyansk, Donetsk People's Republic, in the psycho-neurological residential hospital (Kurchatova Street) and sanitary-epidemiologic station (Svobody Street), militants of Ukrainian armed groups have deployed barracks, armoured vehicles, artillery and multiple rocket launchers, while the residents of the local buildings have not been evacuated and are used as a human shield.

e) in Kramatorsk, Donetsk People's Republic, in a residential house (Parkovaya st., 95), servicemen of the AFU have deployed a strongpoint with munitions and armament depots, while its residents are forcibly retained in their flats. In the schools №4 (M.Priymachenko Street.) and № 25 (B.Khmelnitskogo Street), nationalists have deployed firing positions and sniper points, while the population of the nearby residential houses had been intentionally left without evacuation;

f) in Dachnoye, Odessa Region, in the House of Culture and the gymnasium №2 (Mira Street), Ukrainian nationalists have deployed a strongpoint, as well as armoured vehicles and MLRS at its territory;

g) in Lisichansk, Lugansk People's Republic, in a milk factory (Artyomovskoye Highway), nationalists of Ukrainian armed groups have deployed barracks, firing positions and a munitions depot, as well as West-manufactured armoured vehicles and artillery cannons at the adjacent territory.

On June 21st a Ukrainian drone attacked an oil refinery in southern Russia’s Rostov Region. The blaze occurred at the Novoshakhtinsky oil refinery, affecting an area of around 50 square meters, and was quickly put out, the emergency services said. There were no injuries or fatalities, they added.

In Avdeyevka, Donetsk People's Republic, professionals of the Centre for Information and Psychological Operations of AFU have carried out another provocation aimed at accusing the Russian Armed Forces of an alleged destruction of civilian infrastructure facilities. For this purpose, nationalists exploded the building of the comprehensive school №6 (Shevchenko Blvd.) and spread fabricated photo-and videographic data in Ukrainian and Western mass media.

This kind of fakes is regularly replicated by the Ukrainian propaganda supported by the collective West and unprofessional newsmen.

Despite the repeated statements by the Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, this kind of facts remains neglected by the World Health Organisation and the international community.

Russia urged the countries of the international community, the United Nations Organisation, the World Health Organisation, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other international organizations to influence on the authorities in Kiev for preventing the usage of civilian infrastructure facilities for military purposes by Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Unfortunately, in vain. Like in the past.

Like the Afghan proverb says: “Alien sorrow is colder than snow”.

 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 88. Foreign mercenaries in Ukraine. Never to return to it

June 24, 2022

1. The fate of foreign mercenaries

On June 22nd, AFU command evacuated up to 30 wounded and 8 killed American and British mercenaries to prevent their capture by the Russian Armed Forces and the DPR troops in view of the possible defeat of the units from the 14th and the 24th Mechanised Brigades near Nikolayevka (the DPR).

Two former U.S. soldiers, Alexander Druke and Andy Huhne (see photo), captured by the Russian and the DPR military, as foreign mercenaries. On June 21, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the captured American mercenaries “cannot and are not covered by the Geneva Convention,” and did not rule out the possibility of capital punishment against them through the death penalty.

Russia can’t guarantee that the former Americans servicemen that were captured in Ukraine won’t face the death penalty, he said in an interview with NBC television that was aired on June 21st. "I cannot guarantee anything. It depends on the investigation," he said when asked if he could guarantee that the U.S.prisoners of war won’t face the same fate as Britons Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner and Moroccan national Brahim Saadoun who were earlier sentenced to death by a court in the Donetsk People’s Republic.

Earlier, the Russian ambassador to the UK, Andrei Kelin, said that London had addressed Moscow about the British ‘soldiers of fortune’ sentenced to death in the DPR, sending an "arrogant" diplomatic note to Russia. The address is wrong, because those mercenaries fought not with Russia, but rather with the DPR, and therefore they are responsible for several criminal acts done vs the DPR and sentenced in accordance with its Criminal Code.

Europa Press agency has reported the death of a 22-year-old Spanish citizen in Ukraine. A young man aged 22 from Manacor, Mallorca, has been killed in action in Ukraine, Europa Press has written, citing sources in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Spanish country. According to the agency, the Spaniard died on Saturday, June 18. The place of death and details were not specified.

It is a general practice in Donbass: all foreign mercenaries captured in Ukraine are subject to the DPR and the LPR Criminal Codes that are tougher than that of the Russian one that does not provide capital punishment for criminal crimes (having a maximum possible term – life imprisonment).

2. Other developments

Lithuania has illegally blocked the rail transit of some Russian goods to the country’s Kaliningrad Region on June 18, 2022. Kaliningrad Region is a small Russian exclave that borders Lithuania from the north and east, and Poland from the south.

Vilnius explained the move by stating that the goods in question were sanctioned by the EU in connection with the conflict in Ukraine, and therefore can no longer pass through the bloc's territory even if they travel from one part of Russia to another. Among them are crude oil and oil products, coal, metals, construction materials, advanced technology, glassware, some foods and fertilizers, plus alcohol. According to the region's governor, Anton Alikhanov, the ban means that as much as 40-50% of all goods destined for Kaliningrad could be blocked. He said the move was made in “flagrant violation” of international law and is tantamount to “an attempt to place the region in an economic chokehold.”

Lithuania has broken international law by implementing an economic “blockade” of Russia’s Kaliningrad Region, according to leading Moscow Senator Konstantin Kosachev.

One of the bloggers noted at the RT website: ”German nazis blockaded and starved Leningrad from 1941 to 1944. NATO nazis blockaded and starving Kaliningrad in 2022. Like forefathers like sons.” The other one wrote: “'Casus belli': What Kaliningrad blockade means for Russia”.

Russian experts demand in response from the Government a total economic blockade for Lithuania – blocking it both from Kaliningrad Region and from Byelarus.

It is laughable case when European Commission formally shifted the responsibility for limiting the transit of goods to Kaliningrad to Lithuania, and Lithuania it its turn blamed the EU. It is like the Russian folk saying: “Peter blames Ivan, and Ivan blames Peter” (an equivalent in English:”They ping-pong people from Paul to Peter”).

This was reported by RIA Novosti, citing the official representative of the European Commission, Eric Mamer. According to him, Lithuania has compromised the European Commission (EC) by claiming that the decision to impose restrictions on Kaliningrad exports was made jointly with the EC. This is a sovereign decision of the Lithuanian authorities, Mamer claimed.

At the same time Lithuania continued to expand Kaliningrad blockade, and threatens to cut off a gas pipeline “Minsk-Vilnius-Kaunas-Kaliningrad”.

The restrictions imposed on the transit of freight to the Kaliningrad Region by Vilnus have already affected road traffic, officials of the Russian exclave said on June 21st. “The partial restriction of freight transit also applies to road vehicles passing through Lithuania. Like [goods transported by] rail, these goods can now only be transported by sea,” the press service of the regional Government in Kaliningrad has said.

The Russian government has blasted Vilnius’ move as an “economic blockade,” with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov calling the decision unprecedented, and in “violation of anything and everything.”

The head of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, vowed there would be a response to the ongoing “blockade,” stating that unspecified actions to be taken by Moscow would “have a serious negative impact on the people of Lithuania.” “Of course, Russia will respond to hostile actions. Appropriate measures are in the works, and will be adopted in the near future,” Patrushev told reporters amid a visit to Kaliningrad on June 21st.


Notably, the U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price expressed the U.S. and NATO support for Lithuania’s actions against Kaliningrad exclave where more than one million people currently live


3. Food for thought

“I don’t mean to offend anyone, but it’s obvious to everyone that Mario Draghi is no Silvio Berlusconi and Olaf Scholz is no Angela Merkel,” Dmitry Medvedev wrote on social media, comparing the current and former leaders of Italy and Germany. “The political class of people, who embodied powerful political movements and in some cases entire eras, was replaced with puny individuals who call themselves technocrats,” he said.

The Russian official, who now serves as deputy chair of the National Security Council, said he had witnessed the replacement of the old guard personally during his career. Previously, Europeans had the guts to take action and face the music, if they turned out to be wrong. The modern generation may be largely competent at governing, but they don’t have the personality to take personal responsibility, he said.

“They will hide, weasel out, cite instructions, the state of markets or even climate change, but won’t make decisions. Or when they do, they come disastrously late,” he said.

Medvedev said such politicians cannot command respect because of these personal qualities, as evidenced by the treatment they get from Ukrainian officials.

“Could the Ukrainian ambassador call Chancellor [Helmut] Kohl ‘liverwurst’? Would the current president of Ukraine wear a green T-shirt to a meeting with President [Jacques] Chirac? Of course not,” Medvedev said, referring to the former leaders of Germany and France.

“[Former French president] Charles de Gaulle could object to any American president. Who among the Europeans now could do so without their hands trembling? They don’t think about the future. They are limited by their flaccid electoral goals,” Medvedev observed.

 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin
 

Report # 89. Astonishing results of Kiev’s genocide policy

June 25, 2022

 

1. Just imagine: Could civilians in Donbass survive without Russian SMO?

According to official data of the Joint Coordination Center of the DPR, since the beginning of the escalation of Ukrainian third armed aggression against Donbass that started on February 14, 2022 and intensified on February 17, 2022, till June 25, 929 civilians, including 69 children, were injured in the territory within the borders existed before the beginning of the Russian Special Military Operation or SMO.

1,440 civilians, including 78 children, were injured in the territory liberated during the SMO.

The total number of people injured is 2,369, including 147 children.

In total, AFU fired 42,048 munitions of various calibers against Donbass, including 7,494 missiles fired from three types of MLRS, like Smertch, Hurricane and Grad.

4906 residential buildings, 1062 civil infrastructure facilities, including 64 medical institutions, 202 educational facilities, 378 social centers, 30 critical infrastructure facilities, 388 electric, water and gas supply assets, 577 vehicles were damaged.

Correspondents in the liberated areas report that almost no one wants to be evacuated by AFU or live under Kiev’s cruel rule. Only Russians are expected as liberators.

 

One resident said: "It's the Ukrainian army that is shelling us, it is killing our children!" The other one note: "I want to see how the Russians will win and establish their power here." One person adds: "We want to unite with the Russians! They are our friends, not the Germans or Europe."

Just days after announcing a new billion-dollar weapons shipment to Kiev, the White House announced $450 million more.

The U.S. has already delivered four M142 HIMARS to Ukraine (four have been sent earlier). The new package pushes the total value of munitions, anti-tank weapons, helicopters, vehicles and protective gear donated by the United States to Ukraine since February 2022 past $6.1 billion (see this PPT in normal size at: Defence One website, dated June 15, 2022// https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/06/us-pledges-more-weapons-ukraine-milley-warns-numbers-clearly-favor-russians/368229

 

French President Emmanuel Macron pretending to act as a peace-maker also delivered to Ukraine 18 Caesar self-propelled howitzers to kill more people in Donbass.

A Russian factory which is currently studying the seized French weapons also sarcastically thanked Macron for the "gifted" artillery, asking him to send more for disassembly.

French politician and far-right National Rally candidate for the 2022 general election, Jean-Michel Cadenas, has criticized the Ukrainian military for abandoning two Paris-originated Caesar self-propelled howitzers on the battlefield. Cadenas also blasted French President Macron for sending them in the first place.

The Kremlin stressed that these shipments unnecessarily prolong the conflict in Ukraine and added that it shows how the West wants to fight "until the last Ukrainian standing" to oppose the Russian SMO. Moscow also has repeatedly advised Western countries against sending weapons to Ukraine, warning that Kiev might not exercise control over where they end up, possibly including in the hands of third-party terrorists looking to compromise European security.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on June 25 that he feared Ukraine could face pressure to agree a peace deal with Russia that was not in its interests, due to the economic consequences of the war in Europe. "Too many countries are saying this is a European war that is unnecessary ... and so the pressure will grow to encourage - coerce, maybe - the Ukrainians to a bad peace," he told broadcasters in the Rwandan capital Kigali, where he was attending a Commonwealth summit. He also admitted that the consequences of Russian President being able to get his way in Ukraine would be "a long-term economic disaster".

If so, Boris, why to wait for a peace deal? Zelensky is your pal. Always says to your demands: “Ready, I ready”.

2. AFU suffered heavy losses. Lisichansk is cauldroned, two key cities liberated

Russian troops blocked Lisichansk from the south and by evening June 25th entered the city after having breached the defensive line of Ukrainian troops. Cauldron has been created. No chances to escape.

 Within five days, Russian Armed Forces have liberated eleven settlements, including the largest ones: Loskutovka, Mirnaya Dolina and Ustinovka. 600 Ukrainian soldiers have surrended near Lisichansk, the LPR leaders reported.

At the same time, the Southern group of Russian troops has defeated the encircled group of Ukrainian troops in Gorskoye and have liberated Gorskoye and Zolotoye.

High-precision attacks launched by Russian Aerospace Forces at Megateks zinc plant facilities in Konstantinovka (Donetsk People's Republic) has resulted in the elimination of up to 80 Polish mercenaries, 20 armoured combat vehicles and 8 Grad MLRS. Over 300 Ukrainian servicemen and foreign mercenaries, as well as 35 units of equipment have been eliminated near Nikolayev.

Refusals to fulfil assigned tasks continue to occur in Ukrainian army and territorial defence units. Personnel of 64th Battalion from 103rd Territorial Defence Brigade located in Lvov has refused to redeploy to operations area in Donbass due to being manned by untrained reservists and lack of heavy armament.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised manpower and military equipment in 284 areas, 2 munitions, missiles and artillery armament depots near Volcheyarovka (the LPR), as well as artillery and mortar units in 43 areas.

Within counter-battery warfare towards Donetsk, high-precision attacks launched by Russian Aerospace Forces have neutralised: 8 Uragan MLRS platoons near Kurakhovo, Ukrainsk, Novosyolovka Vtoraya, Vozdvizhenka and two artillery platoons near Ukrainsk and Yasnobrodovka that had been shelling Donetsk and other settlements in the DPR.

Attacks launched by aviation, missile troops and artillery have resulted in the elimination of over 780 nationalists, 8 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 3 Uragan MLRS, 10 field artillery cannons and mortars, 13 special vehicles.

Russian air defence have destroyed 21 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near 18 populated areas in several Regions.

One Tochka-U ballistic missile has been intercepted near Molodyozhnoye (Kherson Rregion) and 16 MLRS projectiles near Brazhkovka, Glinskoye, Dolgenkoye (Kharkov region), Avdeyevka (the DPR) and near Zmeiny( Snake) Island.

In total, 213 airplanes and 132 helicopters, 1,355 unmanned aerial vehicles, 350 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,797 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 670 combat vehicles equipped with multiple rocket-launching systems, 3,012 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 3,848 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

3. Humanitarian situation

AFU continue to use the civilian infrastructure for military purposes and hiding behind civilians as ‘human shield’:

a) in Kharkov, in the vocational high school №33 (Vladislava Zubenko Street), AFU and Territorial Defence units have deployed their manpower, as well as hardware and artillery near the educational institution;

b) in Yasnogorsk, Donetsk People's Republic, in the schools №21 (Levoberezhnaya Street) and №30 (Volkhovskaya Street), neo-Nazis have deployed strongpoints and MLRS, while residents of the nearby buildings remain retained in the educational institutions;

c) in Ugledar, the DPR, in the densely populated areas (13-i Desantnikov Street. and Molodyozhnaya Street), militants of Aidar, Right Sector and Azov nationalist battalions have deployed fortifications, strongpoints, armament and munitions depots, as well as mortars mounted on the roofs of multi-storey residential buildings that periodically attack the nearby settlements. Residents are forbidden to leave their flats, while any attempts of civilians to evacuate to safe areas are severely suppressed;

d) in Odessa, on the upper floors of residential buildings (Lanzheronovskaya Street ), nationalists have deployed their firing and sniper positions. Local residents have not been evacuated from their flats and are being used by nationalists as human shields.

It has been reliably elicited that the 83rd Centre for Information and Psychological Operations of the AFU is preparing another cynical provocation in order to accuse the Russian Armed Forces (RAF) of launching attacks at potentially dangerous facilities that can cause hundreds of victims among the civilian population in Odessa in case of its implementation. With this purpose, at the territory of the cemetery for victims of the plague in XIX century (Privoza District, Chumka Hill, Vodoprovodnaya Street), AFU militants are concentrating foreign-manufactured large-calibre artillery and MLRS. In case of an attack launched by RAF at the AFU equipment concentration in this area, the Ukrainian side intends to spread information in mass media about a destruction of burials and biologic hazard allegedly caused by Russian servicemen.

These facts show the indifference of the Ukrainian authorities to the civilian population and their total disregard to the international humanitarian law. It occurs with the tacit consent of the so-called civilized Western countries that continue turning a blind eye to the numerous war crimes of the Kiev regime.

Demining detachments of the Russian Armed Forces and the EMERCOM of Russia are carrying out land and facility clearance tasks in the DPR and LPR.

A total of 3,541.68 hectares were explored (including 22.89 hectares over the past 24 hours), 35 buildings (including 13 socially important facilities), 2 bridges and 9.64 km of roads. 32,465 explosive remnants have been detected and neutralised, including 1,307 over the past 24 hours.

Since March 2nd, 35,908.7 tonnes of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered by the Russian Federation to Ukraine, 1,211 humanitarian campaigns have been carried out, including 6 campaigns in the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, the Kharkov and Kherson regions, during which 853.4 tonnes of humanitarian aid were distributed to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

4. Situation in the Black Sea

Kiev refuses to demine the Black Sea areas filled with its own sea mines in order to release foreign merchant ships from its seaports and to begin export of Ukrainian grain abroad that constitute less than one percent of the total world grain production.

According Reuters report dated June 24, Ukraine will need at least a decade to clear all the mines and explosives from its land and territorial waters once its war with Russia is over, Oleksandr Khorunzhiy, spokesperson for Ukraine's State Emergency Service,  said on June 24. In his words, The first priority is to demine infrastructure, residential areas and roads, but it will take longer to clear woods, rivers and the coastline, he confessed. If so, why to put a blame for Russia who has never activated Ukrainian sea mines near Ukrainian coast?

The latest situation in the Black Sea is reflected in Report # 86. “Kiev intensified shelling of civilian areas in Donbass”, released on June 20, 2022 (item 3).

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 9. Berlin turned to be an accomplice of war in Europe

Germany has decided to supply Kiev with 1,000 anti-tank weapon systems as well as 500 ‘Stinger’ surface-to-air missiles from the German Army stocks, a government spokesman, Steffen Hebestreit, announced on Saturday February 26. The weapons are to be delivered to Ukraine “as soon as possible,” he added.

Earlier on Saturday, several German media outlets reported that Berlin had changed its position on supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons upon urgent requests from Kiev and its NATO partners.

Germany's ARD broadcaster reported that Berlin plans to provide Kiev with portable anti-tank missile launchers “via third countries.” The German government reportedly struck a deal with the Netherlands that would see Amsterdam handing over the weapons to Ukraine.

Germany's FAZ newspaper reported on Saturday that Berlin also greenlighted Estonia's plan to hand over self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine. The military hardware comes from the stocks of the former East Germany's National People's Army and were originally sold to Finland in the 1990s.

Estonia had already asked for approval for the transaction from Berlin in January but did not get it at that time, according to the media. Germany also plans to export 14 armored vehicles to Ukraine. The deal was approved on Saturday, according to FAZ. The vehicles that can be used for personnel transportation or evacuation purposes are to be handed over to Ukraine alongside 10,000 tons of fuel that will be delivered through Poland, the paper added.

Conclusion:

Clearly, Berlin became a direct accomplice of war in Europe, like the USA and other NATO countries.

It means that NATO wants to continue military confrontation against Donbass without any interruption. By pouring extra fuel into the flame.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Report # 91. NATO Summit in Madrid tells Ukraine to fight on

 

June 29, 2022

1. NATO is urging Kiev to continue war with Russia, Belgian Prime Minister said

Fighting against Russia with Western help is the only way forward for Ukraine, NATO members told President Volodymyr Zelensky, Alexander De Croo, the Belgian Prime Minister said on June 29 in Madrid.

“We make it very clear that this war can only be won on the battlefield and we should continue to support President Zelensky and the Ukrainian population as much as possible to be able to win the war on the battlefield,” Belgian Prime Minister told journalists on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Madrid.

In a new NATO Strategic Concept stamped at the NATO Summit in Madrid at the end of June, the transatlantic alliance neglected the fact that it is Ukraine who actually started three wars of aggression against Donbass in 2014-2022, but not the Russian Federation. In another document called Madrid Summit Declaration 30 NATO member-states promised to accelerate the delivery of non-lethal defence equipment to aggressive Ukrainian regime, improve its’s cyber defences and resilience, and support modernising its defence sector in its transition to strengthen long-term interoperability. In this phrase there is a clear-cut distortion dealt with transfer of “non-lethal defence equipment” to that ultra-nationalist regime. It reality, HATO began to deliver lethal offensive arms and ammunition to Kiev a long time ago and is delivering them still. The phrase “to strengthen long-term interoperability” usually refers to a member of NATO.

Via a video link addressed to NATO summit on June 28 Ukrainian President Zelensky has urged the US-led NATO bloc to ramp up support of his country amid the ongoing conflict with Russia, claiming that Kiev’s defeat would result in a “delayed” war between Moscow and the whole West. The country needs both direct military and financial aid, Zelensky stated, adding that some $5 billion a month was needed to cover its budget deficit.

He has already spent nearly $ 7.0 billion donated by his patron the USA since February 24 for gaining no victory and loosing nearly 150,000 troops on the battlefields. Will he be able to return such huge amount of money? Highly unlikely.

Despite this fact, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the NATO summit in Madrid outlined the North Atlantic Alliance’s position on military assistance for Ukraine. He said that Ukraine should be given so many weapons that it would be able to defend itself. And that means NATO will raise the stakes in the Ukrainian crisis. “The message is: we will continue to do this, we will do it intensively as long as it is necessary so that Ukraine can defend itself”, – the chancellor was quoted as saying.

It will be a tragic parallel: during WWII German “Tiger” tanks stormed Donbass, and today another types of German “Leopard” tanks are going to do the same aggressive job, killing innocent people in the same area. Seemingly, contemporary Berlin has NOT gained positive lessons from the past.

2. Kiev once again circulated fake news

Ukrainian President Zelensky is not satisfied with the absence of fake news from his General Staff and special services who staged two major lies of strategic importance – corpses intentionally delivered to Bucha and shelling a railway station in Kramatorsk controlled by Ukrainians by ballistic missile Tochka-U fired from the city also controlled by the Ukrainian side that time.

On June 27, in Kremenchug (Poltava Region), Russian Aerospace Forces launched a high-precision air attack at hangars with armament and munitions delivered by USA and European countries at Kremenchug road machinery plant called Kredmash [also named as Dormash].

Russian MoD official spokesman Lt-General Igor Konashenko said that high-precision attack has resulted in the neutralisation of the West-manufactured armament and munitions concentrated at the storage area at Dormash that was meant to be delivered to Ukrainian group of troops in Donbass. Detonation of the storaged munitions caused a fire in a non-functioning shopping centre named “Amstor” located 150 m away  to the facilities of the plant.

The same information was articulated on June 28 at the UN Security Council (UNSC) by Dmitry Polyanskiy, Russian representative to the UN told the Security Council on meeting Russia does not target civilians in Ukraine and did not strike a shopping center in Kremenchug. He added that the mall caught fire due to an explosion of Western-supplied weapons and ammunition, stored at the nearby factory and intended to be used in shelling civilians in the Donbass.

“In reality, there was no strike on the mall,” Polyanskiy told the council, as Russia targeted a storage facility at the Kredmash factory. The weapons and ammunition stored there were bound for the front, where Ukrainian artillery has been bombarding the civilians of Donbass, for many years, to no objection from the UN, he added. “The Russian strike stopped that.”

Polyanskiy pointed out that Ukrainian media clearly shows images of intact merchandise inside the Amstor shopping center, and windows of nearby residential buildings that had not shattered. The fire was caused by explosions of the Western-supplied ammunition at Kredmash, he said.

Moscow’s envoy accused Ukraine of waging a propaganda war, using fakes and lies to campaign for more weapons and financial aid from the West. Actual testimonials of civilians from Donbass show that they blame only the Ukrainian military, which deploys weapons around residential homes and uses civilians as human shields, Polyanskiy argued.

3. Arms supplies from the USA/NATO to Ukraine will lead to escalation

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has warned the West that continuing to supply Ukraine with advanced weaponry will only prolong the conflict in the east European country. Speaking at a press conference, on June 28, he stated that the position of the West regarding Ukraine is “absolutely counterproductive and harmful.” “Pumping up” Ukraine with Western weapons will only lead Russia “to perform more missions on the ground, he added.

“The more weapons are pumped into Ukraine, the longer this conflict will last, the longer the agony of the Nazi regime, which is supported by Western capitals, will last,” Lavrov outlined, commenting on accusations from Ukrainian and Western politicians related to a shopping mall in Kremenchug, which was allegedly hit by Russian forces on June 27.

Continued weapons deliveries from Washington to Kiev only tighten the conflict spiral and heighten the threat of the further aggravation with unpredictable consequences, Russian Ambassador to the USA Anatoly Antonov said on June 26.

"The reckless and unanswered flooding of Ukraine with arms only tightens the conflict spiral and increases the threat of the further escalation with unpredictable consequences," the Russian Embassy’s Telegram channel quoted him as saying. "However, Washington’s ruling circles, blinded by the idea to weaken Russia, are still not capable to rationally assess the whole danger of their moves," the envoy added.

"The administration increases the supplies of weapons to Kiev. If previously they were delivering MPADS and ATGMs, now it's on to heavy artillery, MRLS and, by all appearances, air defense systems," he noted.

The diplomat emphasized that additionally, the US shares intelligence data with the Ukrainian side and consults as to "how to act on the battlefield." "Essentially, with its provocative moves the US is pushing the Kiev regime to commit mass murders of civilians. Additionally, here they are condoning the continued deployment of US mercenaries to Ukraine," he added. "Such a policy creates additional risks in relations between the largest nuclear powers," the ambassador emphasized.

3. Situation on the battlefields

Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) continued to shell residential areas and social infrastructure (see Annex attached below).

On the other hand, 10th Mountain Assault Brigade of AFU suffered considerable losses during the offensive near the Lisichansk oil refinery. According to captured servicemen from this brigade, 108th Battalion has been completely defeated. Only 30 from 350 servicemen remain in this unit.

115th Mechanised, 79th Air Assault and 25th Airborne brigade of the AFU that operate towards Lisichansk suffer a critical situation in grocery supply. There are a lot of cases of abandoning positions and desertion due to starving.

Attack launched by Russian artillery near Pitomnik (Kharkov region) has resulted in the elimination of up to 100 militants from Kraken Nazi group and about 10 units of combat equipment. Commanders of the militants have decided to abandon the positions and to withdraw the rest of this unit to Kharkov.

High-precision attacks launched by Russian Aerospace Forces have resulted in the elimination of 4 command posts, including those of Kharkov-1 and Kharkov-2 Territorial Defence battalions near Kharkov, as well as a training base of mercenaries deployed near Nikolayev.

The neutralised targets include: AFU manpower and military equipment in 32 areas, 1 AFU equipment reparation base near Lisichansk, 8 armament and munitions depots near Shevchenkovo (Kherson region), Spornoye (Donetsk People's Republic, Nikolayev and Ochakovo (Nikolayev region), as well as 1 fuel depot near Kulbakino (Nikolayev region).

Within the counter-battery warfare, high-precision armament of Russian Aerospace Forces have neutralised 2 Ukrainian Grad multiple rocket-launching system (MRLS) platoons near Kalinov, Aleksandrovo-Kalinovsk, as well as 2 artillery platoons near Avdeyevka that had been shelling the settlements of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised: 39 command posts, 6 munitions depots, artillery and mortar units in 68 areas, including a unit of French-made Caesar self-propelled howitzers at Kubansky island, as well as manpower and military equipment in 216 areas.

Operational-tactical aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces have shot down 1 MiG-29 airplane of Ukrainian Air Force near Bashtanki, Nikolayev region.

In addition, 1 self-propelled launching system of Buk-M1 air defence system near Troitskoye (Odessa region).

Russian air defence means have shot down 2 Su-25 airplanes near Kurulka (Kharkov region), Kvitnevoye (Kherson region) and 1 Mi-8 helicopter of Ukrainian Air Forces near Arkhangelskoye (Nikolayev region).

9 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down near Vesyoloye, Ilyichyovka, Shestakovo, Pitomnik, Liptsy, Ternovaya, Sulinovka (Kharkov region), Tomina Balka (Kherson region), Stakhanov and Kantemirovka (Donetsk People's Republic).

7 Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missiles have been intercepted near Peski-Radkovskiye, Kapitolovka, Chervoniy Oskol (Kharkov region), Tyaginka, Novokondakovo (Kherson region) and 8 projectiles launched by a MRLS near Kamenka, Brazhkovka (Kharkov region), Krymki, Novosyolovka, Yarovaka (Donetsk People's Republic) and over Snake Island.

In total, 221 airplanes and 134 helicopters, 1,391 unmanned aerial vehicles, 351 air defence missile systems, 3,853 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 692 combat vehicles equipped with multiple rocket-launching systems, 3,052 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 3,907 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

4. Humanitarian situation

The Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, in cooperation with the competent federal executive authorities and law enforcement agencies, continues to record the facts of criminal acts by the Kiev regime against the civilian population of Ukraine and the People's Republics of Donbass, as well as the use of medical infrastructure for military purposes:

a) in Bakhmut, Donetsk People's Republic, in a dermatovenerologic dispensary and Medtsentr clilic (Mariupolskaya st.), Ukrainian nationalists have deployed firing positions and sniper points, the approaches to the facility are mined, but the local population has intentionally been left uninformed;

b) in Chernigov, in the regional tuberculosis dispensary (Mira ave.), Territorial Defence units have deployed their headquarters, armament and munitions depots, while all the patients had been cynically banned from the medical facility regardless of their health condition;

c) in Seversk, Donetsk People's Republic, in the urban hospital (Suvorova st.), nationalists have deployed firing positions, armoured equipment, large-calibre artillery and multiple rocket-launching systems (MRLS) at the adjacent territory, while residents of local buildings remain retained in the medical facility under the pretext of their security.

According to reliable information, the Kiev regime intends to carry out another inhumane provocation. Militants of Ukrainian nationalist battalions are about to launch missile attacks from residential areas of Krivoy Rog at the local hospital (Osvoboditeley st.) in Vysokopolye controlled by Russian Armed Forces. Ukrainian neo-Nazis hope to provoke a counter-attack by these acts in order to accuse Russian Armed Forces of launching indiscriminate attacks at civilian infrastructure facilities and eliminating Ukrainian civilian population.

Within this provocation, Ukrainian authorities will order to use unmanned aerial vehicles for preparing fake videographic data about the alleged murders of civilians committed by Russians and spreading it by western news agencies.

Despite the repeated statements by the Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, this kind of facts remains neglected by the World Health Organisation and the international community.

Russia again urged the countries of the international community, the United Nations Organisation, the World Health Organisation, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other international organisations to influence on the authorities in Kiev for preventing the usage of medical infrastructure facilities with military purposes by Ukrainian armed groups.

In addition, intelligence services of the Kiev regime are preparing provocations for accusing Russian Armed Forces of the alleged use of chemical weapons against civilian population. With this purpose, on June 18, 2022, representatives of the Security Service of Ukraine arrived in the Primorsky sanatorium of the Ministry of Healthcare of Ukraine (Kurortny, Odessa region), in order to negotiate the issues on receiving, accomodating and providing medical care to people affected by chemical (toxic) agents.

Russia warned in advance the so-called civilised West, as well as the United Nations Organisation, the International Committee of the Red Cross, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons that the abovementioned and other similar provocations are planned to be spread by western mass media and various Internet resources.

Over the past 24 hours, without the participation of the Ukrainian representatives, 17,474 persons (including 2,978 children) have been evacuated from the dangerous areas of Ukraine and the republics of Donbass to Russia; in total, since the beginning of the Special Military Operation: 2,170,552 persons (343,336 children).

5. Situation in the Black Sea

70 foreign vessels from 16 countries remain blocked in six Ukrainian ports (Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhniy). The threat of shelling and high mine danger posed by official Kiev prevent vessels from entering the high seas unhindered. The danger to navigation from Ukrainian mines drifting off their anchors along the coasts of Black Sea states remains. The Kiev authorities also continue to avoid engaging with representatives of states and ship-owning companies to resolve the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area.

So, Ukraine blocks delivery of grain abroad due to its own desire.

As a result of a series of measures taken by the Russian Navy, the Mariupol harbour continues being under mine clearance works, the port infrastructure is routinely under reconstruction.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have created the necessary conditions for the operation of two maritime humanitarian corridors that constitute safe lanes for navigation:

a) in the Black Sea (every day from 08:00 AM to 07:00 PM) to leave Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhnyi ports towards south-west from Ukraine's territorial sea, 139 miles long and 3 miles wide;

b) in the Sea of Azov (uninterruptedly) to leave Mariupol port, 115 miles long and 2 miles wide, towards the Black Sea.

Detailed information on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridors is broadcast daily every 15 minutes by VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels in English and Russian.

The Russian Federation is taking a full range of comprehensive measures to ensure the safety of civilian navigation in the waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin


 

Annex

Situation on contact line (June 28, updated), suppled by the DPR and LPR

14:32 The representative office of the LPR in the JCCC at the site of the shelling of the city of Perevalsk recorded fragments of a 240-mm GMLRS M30 guided missile with a cluster warhead, manufactured by the American company Lockheed Martin, used with the M142 HIMARS MLRS. As a result of the shelling, there were no casualties or injuries. Representation of the PR in the JCCC.

14:15 Shelling was recorded from the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction: 14:10 settlement Avdiivka – settlement Yakovlevka: 3 shells of 122 mm caliber were fired.

14:11 Shelling was recorded from the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction: 14:05 settlement Pervomaiskoye – Donetsk (Kirovskiy district): 10 missiles were fired from the BM-21 Grad MLRS.

13:08 Shelling was recorded from the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction: 13:00 settlement Avdiivka – settlement Yasinovataya: 3 shells of 122 mm caliber were fired.

13:02 Officer of the NM LPR Andrey Marochko: “The LPR tracked the movement of HIMARS, from which Perevalsk was shelled. The kit will be destroyed soon.”

13:01 Shelling was recorded from the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction: 12:30 settlement Zaitsevo (northern) – settlement Golmovsky: 4 shots fired from the tank.

12:48 “Consequences of the shelling of the street. Kosarev, Zapototsky and Ivovaya in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk,” reports the Head of Donetsk Administration Alexei Kulemzin

12:54 Shelling was recorded from the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the following directions: 12:20 settlement Metalist (Ukrainian: Travnevoe) settlement Dolomite: 10 grenades were fired from an underbarrel grenade launcher, small arms were also used; 12:45 settlement Kurdyumovka – settlement Golmovsky: fired 5 shells with a caliber of 152 mm.

12:19 Shelling was recorded from the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forcesin the direction: 11:15 settlement Novgorodskoye – settlement Panteleimonovka: 6 shells of 152 mm caliber were fired.

11:58 Fire was recorded from the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forcesin the direction: 11:40 settlement Nikolaevka Second – settlement Dolomite: fired 10 shells of 122 mm caliber.

11:52 Shelling was recorded from the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forcesin the direction: 11:25 settlement Nikolaevka Second – settlement Golmovsky: 6 shells of 122 mm caliber were fired.

11:45 Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the Petrovsky district of Donetsk, a woman was wounded down Kosarev Street. The house was also damaged.

11:38 Shelling from the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forceswas recorded in the following directions:

11:05 settlement Rozovka – settlement Novobakhmutovka: fired 6 mines in 120 mm caliber;

11:10 settlement Novgorodskoye – settlement Gorlovka: 3 shells of 122 mm caliber were fired;

11:15 settlement Novgorodskoye – settlement Gorlovka (settlement of the mine named after Gagarin): 6 mines were fired with a caliber of 120 mm.

11:07 Shelling was recorded from the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forcesin the direction: 11:00 — settlement Novgorodskoye – n.p. Ozeryanovka: 8 shells of 152 mm caliber were fired.

11:03 Ozeryanovka village, Ocheretensky cul-de-sac (Tsentralno-Gorodskoy district of Gorlovka) under fire.

10:38 Several residential buildings in the Annenka residential area, which is part of Bryanka, were damaged as a result of a night shelling of the city by Ukrainian armed forces. Mayor Nikolai Morgunov announced this on his Telegram channel.

“As a result of the night shelling, the Annenka residential area was damaged. The power line was damaged, as a result of which 114 subscribers are without electricity. In several private housing constructions, roofs and glazing were damaged”, Morgunov wrote.

10:30 Statement by the official representative of the People’s Police of the DPR: the Ukrainian side continues to terrorize the civilian population of the Republic, subjecting to massive artillery shelling residential areas and civilian infrastructure of the settlements of the Republic, which in turn do not pose a danger to the enemy and are not military targets.

Over the past day, according to information from the DPR JCCC, the enemy fired more than one hundred and sixty shells from BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket systems, 152 and 122-mm cannon artillery, as well as 120-mm mortars.

The fire was fired at the areas of nine settlements of the Republic. As a result of the shelling, five civilians were killed and twenty-four were injured, of which two were children born in 2007. Twenty-eight residential buildings and twelve civilian infrastructure facilities were damaged. Additional information about injured civilians and damage to infrastructure is being specified.

Joint actions of the military personnel of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed the following enemy weapons and military equipment: two BM-21 Grad MLRS, one Fury UAV, four armored personnel carriers and two armored vehicles. Two enemy firing points were suppressed in the areas of the settlement. Avdiivka and Novomikhailovka.

10:08 Fire was recorded from the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction: 09:55 settlement Krasnogorovka – Donetsk (Petrovsky district): 10 shells of 122 mm caliber were fired.

 

199 civilians killed in 129 days of escalation in DPR - JCCC

 

FOOD FOR THOUGHT:

This building in Donbass could be damaged by the USA, the UK, FRG, Italy, Poland and other NATO states

[ https://en.news-front.info/2022/06/25/199-civilians-killed-in-129-days-of-escalation-in-dpr-jccc/]

 

 

 

 

Report # 92. AFU suffer considerable losses on all fronts

July 2, 2022

1. Situation on the battlefields

Russian Defence Ministry reported on July 2nd about the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine. It claimed that the enemy suffers considerable losses on all fronts. Lisichansk has been captured.

Three battalions from 10th Mountain Assault and 72nd Mechanised Brigades have lost over 50% of their personnel near Verkhnekamenka and Zolotaryovka just in the past 24 hours.

Russian Aerospace Forces have launched a high-precision attack at provisional base of 1st Battalion from 30th Mechanised Brigade. The attack has resulted in the elimination of up to 120 Ukrainian servicemen and about 15 units of military equipment.

In addition, Russian aviation has neutralised a provisional armament and military equipment storage base of 10th Mountain Assault Brigade deployed at the territory of a tractor plant in Kharkov. The attack has resulted in the elimination of up to 30 servicemen and 10 units of armoured and motor vehicles.

Russian Federation Armed Forces continue launching attacks at other military facilities located in Ukraine.

High-precision attacks launched by Russian Aerospace Forces have resulted in the elimination of 5 command posts of the AFU near Artyomovsk and Chasov Yar (the DPR), Pervomayskoye, Zelyony Gay and Barmashovo (Nikolayev Region), 3 munitions depots near Shevchenkovo and Novogrigorovka (Zaporozhye Region), as well as AFU manpower and military equipment in 32 areas.

Within the counter-battery warfare, high-precision attacks launched by Russian Aerospace Forces have resulted in the neutralisation of 4 MLRS platoons near Novoluganskoye, Zhelannoye, Berdychi and Vozdvizhenka from where the AFU had been shelling the settlements of the DPR.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised: 39 AFU command posts, 2 munitions depots near Nikolayev, as well as manpower and military equipment in 302 areas.

Russian air defence systems have shot down 1 MiG-29 of the Ukrainian Air Force near Yavkino (Nikolayev Region).

19 Ukrainian UAVs have been shot down near Voskresenovka, Glinskoye, Pitomnik, Zhovtnevoye, Rubezhnoye, Petrovka (Kharkov region), Rabotino, Novodanilovka (Zaporozhye region), Petrovskoye, Popasnaya, Kremennaya (the LPR), Snezhnoye, Vysokoye, Yasinovataya, Donetsk, Makeyevka, Dokuchayevsk, Komsomolskoye (the DPR).

4 projectiles launched by MLRS have been intercepted near Yasinovataya, Mineralnoye (the DPR) and Chernobayevka (Kherson Region).

In total, 227 airplanes and 134 helicopters, 1,430 unmanned aerial vehicles, 353 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,886 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 702 combat vehicles equipped with multiple rocket-launching systems, 3,073 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 3,954 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

2. Humanitarian situation

Russian troops continue to carefully record the facts of the inhumane treatment of civilians and use of residential buildings, educational institutions, cultural buildings and other social infrastructure facilities for military purposes by Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU):

1) in Zaporozhye, in the Children's Art Palace (Zaporozhskaya Square), nationalists have deployed a strongpoint, an armament and munitions depot, as well as firing and sniper positions along the perimeter of the institution and at the upper floors of nearest residential buildings;

2) in Kramatorsk, the DPR, in the residence of technological vocational school (Uralskaya Street) and in the gymnasium №1 (Arkhangelskaya Street), militants of Ukrainian nationalist groups have deployed barracks, as well as armoured equipment and large-calibre artillery at Yubileyny park;

3) in Kramatorsk, in the school №35 (Yubileynaya Street), in the private residential buildings (Aktyubinskaya Street), servicemen of the AFU, foreign mercenaries and militants of Azov nationalist group have deployed strongpoints, sniper positions, armoured and mortar firing positions, while local residents remain forcibly detained in the basements and used as a human shield;

4) in Bakhmut, the DPR, in the industrial vocational college (Chaykovskogo Street), AFU units have deployed provisional bases, as well as armoured equipment, mortar positions and heavy artillery at the adjacent territory. Militants restrict local residents to leave their houses, all their attempts to evacuate to safe areas are severely suppressed.

5) in Kharkov, in the Technological Lyceum № 9 (Grazhdanskaya Street), AFU units have deployed barracks, armoured equipment, artillery and MRLS;

6) in Slavyansk, the DPR, in the art lyceum (Volzhskaya Street), AFU units have deployed their manpower, armoured equipment, long-range artillery and MRLS, the approaches to the lyceum have been mined, but local population has been intentionally left uninformed about it;

7) in Nikolayev, in the school № 51 (Parusny Alley), Ukrainian Territorial Defence units have deployed their manpower, munitions depots and armoured equipment.

8) in Zelenodolsk, Dnepropetrovsk Region, professionals of the Centre for Information and Psychological Operations of the AFU carried out another provocation in order to accuse Russian Armed Forces of alleged destruction of civilian infrastructure facilities by indiscriminate attacks.  Nationalists had previously withdrawn all the cereals from a grain storage of an agricultural enterprise and exploded them, while the local administration, as it had already been practiced by Kiev authorities, has spread fabricated photo- and videographic data through Ukrainian and Western mass media. This kind of fakes are regularly replicated by the Ukrainian propaganda supported by the collective West without any verification.

9) the Kiev regime is preparing another provocation in Odessa for accusing Russian Armed Forces of assassination civilians (including minors) and deliberate destroying civilian infrastructure using cluster munitions prohibited by international agreements. In order to implement this provocation, up to 20 representatives of foreign mass media, as well as employees of the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) had been transported to Odessa from June 26 to 28, 2022. In case of attacks launched by units of Russian Armed Forces at the bases of Ukrainian armed groups, the military administration of Odessa Region plans to simulate the destruction of a social facility where a crowd of actors (up to 30 anti-Russian activists) have been prepared to play the role of murdered and wounded people. All the participants of the staged scenes are to be paid $ 500, while each of them has already been paid $ 100 in advance.

Despite the repeated statements by the Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, this kind of facts of inhumane treatment to the civilian population remains neglected by the international community and organisations. It occurs with the tacit consent of the western countries that continue turning a blind eye to the numerous war crimes of the Kiev regime.

Moscow has emphasized once again that the Russian Federation Armed Forces do not launch attacks at civilian infrastructure facilities and treat civilians with an exclusive humanity during the special military operation.

3. The USA intensifies war in Ukraine

The US Department of Defense is providing an additional $820 million package of military aid for Ukraine, including two surface-to-air missile defense systems, Pentagon spokesman Todd Breasseale announced on July 1st. He stressed that Washington continues to work with its allies “to provide Ukraine with capabilities to meet its evolving battlefield requirements.”

This brings total US security assistance provided to Ukraine to nearly $ 7.0 billion since Russian SMO on February 24 in response to the third Urran\inian aggression a-in Donbass.

The new deliveries will include ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), two Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS), up to 150,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition, and four additional counter-artillery radars.

President Lukashenko said that several days ago Ukrainian troops opened fire against Belarus.

4. John Bolton makes prediction for Ukraine conflict

US President Joe Biden had failed to deter the Russian offensive in Ukraine and now has no idea what to do with the ongoing conflict, former US National Security Adviser John Bolton has said.

He also claimed that a deal between Moscow and Kiev seems to be unlikely at the moment. “I don’t think Putin is in a position to say he has achieved Russia’s objectives. He may come to that at some point. It may be a lie, but he’ll find a way to stop the hostilities on his own terms,” he said. Ukrainian President Zelensky also “has no flexibility to negotiate at this point,” as polls show that the majority of Ukrainians object to any territorial concessions to Russia, he added.

The Republican politician appeared on CBS on July 2nd, claiming that Biden had “made mistake after mistake” in handling the Ukrainian crisis.

5. The OSCE saga in Ukraine is over

On July 1, the OSCE presence in Ukraine has ended ingloriously. This was stated in a statement by Vladislav Deinego, the Foreign Minister of the Luhansk People's Republic, posted the same day in the Telegram channel.

The last eight years are particularly clear evidence of this — the period of the OSCE SMM or Special Monitoring Mission presence in Ukraine which actively conducted propaganda work aimed at supporting the criminal neo-Nazi Ukrainian regime. And despite some statements of the coordinator close to objectivity or theses in the SMM reports, all the activity of the mission was aimed at distorting the essence of events and misleading the international community, said Vladislav Deinego.

6. Ukraine accused of ‘arbitrary restrictions’ against journalists

Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has criticized Ukrainian authorities over “abuses” against foreign and local journalists covering the current conflict. RSF believes the Kiev government is creating “unjustified obstacles to the production of reliable and objective reporting” on the ground. It urged Kiev to swiftly eliminate obstacles for the media.

“Some 9,000 or so reporters covering the war in Ukraine have difficulties gaining access to certain places and difficulties filming or taking photos, and even are occasionally detained,” the organization, which safeguards freedom of information around the globe, said in a statement released on July 1st.

Those “arbitrary restrictions” are complicating the work of the press in the field and should be lifted, it insisted.  “In a democratic country, war is no reason to hamper the work of journalists,” said Jeanne Cavelier, the head of RSF’s Eastern Europe and Central Asia desk. “Restrictions linked to national security are legitimate, but must be proportionate.”


Annex

 

The DPR and LPR summary of the situation on contact line (July 2, updated)

 

15:42 Shelling was recorded from the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction: 15:37 settlement Krasnogorovka – Donetsk (Kirov district): 4 shells of 152 mm caliber were fired.

15:35 Shelling was recorded from the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction: 14:00 settlement Novomikhailovka – Donetsk (Petrovsky district): 5 shells of 122 mm caliber were fired.

15:32 The LPR forces are now almost in the very center of Lisichansk, near the Shakhtar stadium, said Vitaly Kiselev, assistant to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the republic. In the footage: the hoisting of the USSR flag at the historical and memorial complex “Memory” in the very center of the city.

15:29 The People’s Militia of the LPR, together with volunteers from the Russian Federation, delivered humanitarian aid to the settlement popasnaya

15:21 Yakutia will allocate funds to the DPR for the repair of schools, buildings and roads affected by Ukrainian bombing. The head of the region, Aisen Nikolaev, said during a live broadcast on the social network.  According to him, the work will be completed before the start of the heating season and the school year. Earlier, the head of Yakutia and the head of the administration of the city of Kirovskoye in the DPR signed a cooperation agreement.

14:28 The LPR confirmed the encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Lisichansk.

The allied forces occupied all the strategic heights around the city, it is completely blocked, said Andrei Marochko, an officer of the People’s Militia of the LPR.

13:54 Lisichansk is completely surrounded, “the trap is slammed,” said Ramzan Kadyrov. The city is completely surrounded by allied troops, and a full-scale attack on the settlement will soon begin. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have nowhere to go. “The nationalists are driven into a corner, it remains only to put the finishing touches,” said the head of Chechnya.

13:29 The forces of the LPR and Russia are actively destroying the last centers of resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Lisichansk, they are unlikely to be able to leave the city, said a source close to the People’s Militia of the LPR.

13:24 The photo shows the result of a Ukrainian shell explosion in the courtyard of a residential building at 13 Mayakovsky Street, in the village of Panteleymonovka, Central City District of Horlivka. House building damaged

13:22 Shelling was recorded from the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction: 13:00 settlement Krasnogorovka – Donetsk (Kirovskiy district): 5 shells of 122 mm caliber were fired.

13:20 A crater in Yasinovataya after yesterday’s shelling.

10:30 Statement by the official representative of DPR People’s Police on the situation as of 10.30: the Ukrainian side continues to terrorize the civilian population of the Republic, inflicting massive artillery strikes on residential areas and civilian infrastructure, which in turn are not military facilities and do not pose a danger for the enemy. Over the past day, according to the DPR JCCC, the enemy fired more than three hundred and twenty shells from Grad multiple launch rocket systems, 155, 152 and 122-mm cannon artillery, as well as 82 and 120-mm mortars.

The fire was fired at the districts of eleven settlements of the Republic. As a result of shelling, twenty civilians were injured, two died. Nineteen residential buildings and four civilian infrastructure facilities were damaged. Additional information about injured civilians and damage to infrastructure is being specified.

Joint actions of the military personnel of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed the following enemy weapons and military equipment: seven vehicles, five armored personnel carriers and more than sixty personnel.

10:21 Consequences of yesterday’s shelling of Yasinovataya by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 14 apartment buildings, 5 houses of the private sector, industrial and trade facilities were damaged.

10:13 With the fire support of the RF Armed Forces, units of People’s Police of the DPR continue to carry out successful offensive operations in the Lisichansk region, during which the enemy suffered significant losses in manpower and armored vehicles.

10:01 After 03:00 shelling was recorded from the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction: 09:00 settlement Kurdyumovka – settlement Gorlovka: 3 shells of 152 mm caliber were fired.

09:12 Situation DPR: 08.20 — Air defense again worked over Donetsk. 05.14 — Fighting continues on the front line around Donetsk. Intense and powerful. 05.05 – Petrovsky district of Donetsk and Trudovskie – restless in the morning. North of Donetsk – ping pong, very noisy.

08:00 Important! LPR troops entered Lisichansk. A kindergarten previously occupied by the Ukrainian army was found on the outskirts of the city. The release continues.

07:54 Together with the First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation Sergey Kiriyenko, the Chairman of the Government of the DPR Vitaly Khotsenko, the heads of the department and guests of the Republic at the largest mine “Komsomolets Donbassa” discussed the situation in the coal industry. Despite the fighting and the blockade, the industry survived. The republic is provided with the necessary amount of coal. Black gold enters enterprises, power plants, provides light and heat, ensuring energy security. The industry has a serious potential for export. The meeting discussed the development of the coal mining industry and ensuring the competitiveness of mines. For example, the expediency of transferring all social facilities from the balance sheet of coal enterprises to municipal ownership. They also discussed the mechanisms for providing certain categories of the population with coal for domestic needs. The coal industry of Donbass still has significant prospects, and the state will create all conditions for its development.

07:42 Kyiv security forces once a day fired at the territory in the zone of responsibility of the LPR, the representative office of the Republic in the Joint Center for Control and Coordination of the ceasefire regime reported.

“From the side of the armed formations of Ukraine, shelling was recorded at the village of Rovenky using the Tochka-U tactical missile system (two missiles). As a result of the shelling, 11 residential buildings were damaged, a private garage and a car were destroyed, the contact network of the railway track was damaged, glazing was damaged in a number of industrial and administrative buildings adjacent to the shelling sites”.

01:00 Positional battles near Donetsk: volleys of guns rumble in Makiivka

0:16 The situation with the Lisichansk cauldron: the Lisichansk-Seversk road has not been physically cut yet. That’s how they cut it, then it will be possible to talk about the boiler. So, for now, we can only talk about the operational environment. On the evening of July 01, the battles were for Verkhnekamenskoye, Zolotarevka, Novozolotarevka, Controversial, Novodruzhesk, Belaya Gora.

Fighting also continued in Lisichansk. Statements about 30 or even 50% control of Lisichansk most likely stem from the fact that the Lisichansk Oil Refinery and adjacent villages + outskirts + industrial zones are considered here.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 95. President Putin made some remarks on Ukraine

 

July 8, 2022

1. Putin made them during meeting with State Duma and party leaders

On July 7th. 2022 President Putin met with the leaders of the State Duma and the heads of party factions in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

President Putin thanked every parliamentary party for the organised humanitarian support of the people of Donbass by arranging the distribution of food, medications and basic necessities, and quickly setting up humanitarian aid centres.

He noted that the so-called collective West led by the United States has been extremely aggressive towards Russia for decades. In his words, “Our proposals to create a system of equal security in Europe have been rejected. Initiatives for cooperation on the issue of missile defence were rejected. Warnings about the unacceptability of NATO expansion, especially at the expense of the former republics of the Soviet Union, were ignored. Even the idea of Russia's possible integration into this North Atlantic alliance at the stage of, as it seemed then, cloudless relations with NATO, apparently, seemed absurd to its members”.

 Meeting with State Duma leaders and party faction heads.President continued: “Why? Just because they do not need a country like Russia, that is why. That is why they supported terrorism and separatism in Russia, and internal destructive forces and a ‘fifth column’ in our country. All of them are still receiving unconditional support from the collective West.

We are being told, we hear some people say that we started the war in Donbass, in Ukraine. No, the war was unleashed by the collective West, which organised and supported the unconstitutional armed coup in Ukraine in 2014, and then encouraged and justified genocide against the people of Donbass. The collective West is the direct instigator and the culprit of what is happening today.

If the West wanted to provoke a conflict in order to move on to a new stage in the fight against Russia and a new stage in containing our country, we can say that it has succeeded to a certain extent. A war was unleashed, and the sanctions were imposed. Under normal circumstances, it would probably be difficult to accomplish this.

But here is what I would you like to make clear. They should have realised that they would lose from the very beginning of our special military operation, because this operation also means the beginning of a radical breakdown of the US-style world order. This is the beginning of the transition from liberal-globalist American egocentrism to a truly multipolar world based not on self-serving rules made up by someone for their own needs, behind which there is nothing but striving for hegemony, not on hypocritical double standards, but on international law and the genuine sovereignty of nations and civilisations, on their will to live their historical destiny, with their own values and traditions, and to align cooperation on the basis of democracy, justice and equality.

Everyone should understand that this process cannot be stopped. The course of history is inexorable, and the collective West’s attempts to impose its new world order on the rest of the world are doomed.

At the same time, I want to say and emphasise that we have many supporters, including in the United States and Europe, and even more so on other continents and in other countries. And there will be more, no doubt about that.

To reiterate, even in the countries that are still satellites of the United States, there is a growing understanding that their ruling elites’ blind obedience to their overlord, as a rule, does not necessarily coincide with their national interests, and most often simply and even radically contradicts them. Eventually, everyone will have to face this growing sentiment in society.

Today, these ruling elites are raising the degree to which they manipulate the public consciousness right before our eyes. The ruling classes of the Western countries, which are supranational and globalist in nature, realised that their policies are increasingly detached from reality, common sense and the truth, and they have started resorting to openly despotic methods.

The West, which once declared such principles of democracy as freedom of speech, pluralism and respect for dissenting opinions, has now degenerated into the opposite: totalitarianism. This includes censorship, media bans, and the arbitrary treatment of journalists and public figures.

These kinds of prohibitions have been extended not only to the information space, but also to politics, culture, education, and art – to all spheres of public life in the Western countries. And, they are imposing this on the world; they are trying to impose this model, a model of totalitarian liberalism, including the notorious cancel culture of widespread bans.

However, the truth and reality is that the people in most of these countries do not want this life or this future, and really do not want the formal semblance of sovereignty, they want substantive, real sovereignty and are simply tired of kneeling, of humiliating themselves before those who consider themselves exceptional, and of serving their interests even to their own detriment.

Today we hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield. Well, what can I say? Let them try. We have already heard a lot about the West wanting to fight us ”to the last Ukrainian.“ This is a tragedy for the Ukrainian people, but that seems to be where it is going. But everyone should know that, by and large, we have not started anything in earnest yet.

At the same time, we are not rejecting peace talks, but those who are rejecting them should know that the longer it goes on, the harder it will be for them to negotiate with us”.

*   *   *

On July 8, Presidential Press-Secretary Dmitry Peskov gave a short explanation to the remark made by President Putin “But everyone should know that, by and large, we have not started anything in earnest yet” [in Ukraine].

Dmitry Peskov said that these words mean that during the Special Military Operation in Ukraine Russian Armed Forces have used not all their potentials. He added: «Putin thus simply reminded that the potentials are completely incommensurable. And Russia's potential is so great in this regard that only a small part of it is now being used during a Special Military Operation."

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin
 

 

Report # 96. More details on the US military-biological activity in Ukraine

July 8, 2022

On July 7th the Russian MoD arranged a briefing on the results of analysing documents related to the military-biological activity of the USA in Ukraine. The speaker was Lt-Gen Igor Kirillov, the head of radiological, chemical and biological defense. Russian Armed Forces.

“The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation continues analysing the military-biological activity of the USA and its allies in Ukraine and other regions of the world in view of new information received at the liberated territories and at the branch offices of the Defence Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) that form a unified information network.

We have previously stated that the Ukrainian project of the Pentagon do not meet the pertinent healthcare problems of Ukraine, while their implementation has not led to any improvement of the sanitary-epidemiological situation.

The special military operation has led to forming the final report on DTRA activity dated from 2005 to 2016. The document contains the data on evaluation of healthcare, veterinary and biosecurity system efficiency prepared by a group of U.S. experts in 2016.

This report is a concept document designed for further planification of military-biological activity of the Pentagon in Ukraine that contains conclusions on implementation of the programme guidelines.

Despite the more than 10-year-long period of cooperation in the alleged '...reduction of biological threats...', the experts have stated:

'...There is no legislation on the control of highly dangerous pathogens in the country, there are significant deficiencies in biosafety... The current state of resources makes it impossible for laboratories to respond effectively to public health emergencies...'

The document emphasises that '...over the past five years, Ukraine has shown no progress in implementing international health regulations of the World Health Organisation'.

The report pays particular attention to non-compliance with biosafety requirements when working and storing microbial collections.

It has been stated '...that most facilities are characterised by numerous gross violations, such as unlocked fencing systems, unlatching windows, broken or inactive pathogen restriction systems, lack of alarm systems...' The results of the review conclude that there is no system for protecting dangerous pathogens in Ukraine.

At the same time, the activities of the Defence Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) have been assessed positively: the organisation has managed to bring the national collection of microorganisms to the United States, to organise biological assessment work and to implement projects to study particularly dangerous and economically significant infections that could cause a worsening (changing) epidemic situation.

The report makes the case for continuing this work on behalf of the Pentagon that has cost more than $250 million since 2005.

The document is annexed with ambiguous comments about the sponsors and implementers of the Biological Threat Reduction Programme in Ukraine that have nothing to do with biosecurity issues. In particular, the Soros Foundation is mentioned with the notation '...contributed to the development of an open and democratic society...'

It confirms again that the official activities of the Pentagon in Ukraine are just a front for illegal military and biological research.

We have repeatedly mentioned the role of U.S. Democratic Party representatives in funding bioweapons activities in Ukraine and the intermediary organisations that have been used for this purpose.

I would like to refer to one of the key Pentagon contractors receiving money from Hunter Biden's investment fund, Metabiota.

The available data suggests that the company is merely a front for internationally dubious purposes and is used by the U.S. political elite to carry out opaque financial activities in various parts of the world.

There is a specific example: Metabiota was involved in the response to the Ebola epidemic in West Africa. The activities of the company's employees have raised questions from the World Health Organisation (WHO) in terms of their compliance with biosafety requirements.

This is the report of the international panel of experts from the Haemorrhagic Fever Consortium who were involved in the fight against Ebola virus disease in Sierra Leone in 2015. According to the document, Metabiota staff had failed to comply with handling procedures and concealed the involvement of Pentagon staff who were using the company as a front. The main purpose of these activities was to isolate highly virulent variants of the virus from sick and dead people, as well as to export its strains to the USA.

In view of the apparent failure of Metabiota's activities to meet the goals of controlling the spread of the disease, the World Health Organisation's Ebola coordinator, Philippe Barbosa, recommended to recall the staff of the company saying he was extremely concerned about the potential risks of such collaboration to WHO's reputation.

The U.S. military contractor's heightened interest in the Ebola virus is not a coincidence: the disease is one of the most pathogenic to humans. During the outbreak that began in 2014, 28,000 people were contaminated, over 11,000 of them died, the mortality rate was around 40%.

The special military operation has led to receiving documents that reveals the plans of Metabiota and the Ukrainian Scientific-Technological Centre to study the Ebola virus in Ukraine. This is the request for U.S. funding to diagnose highly dangerous pathogens in Ukraine, including Ebola virus. This kind of requests are part of U.S. strategy to redeploy high-risk work with dangerous pathogens to third countries.

The research was to be carried out at the Mechnikov Anti-Plague Institute in Odessa. As the disease is not endemic and has never been recorded in Ukraine indeed, there is a legitimate question about the need for such research and its true purpose.

We have already noted that Ukraine and other post-Soviet states have become a testing ground for biological weapons not only for the USA, but also for its NATO allies; on the first place, Germany. Various projects have been carried out on behalf of the Joint Medical Service of the German Armed Forces.

Bundeswehr professionals paid particular attention to the Congo-Crimean fever pathogen. A large-scale screening of the susceptibility of the local population to this infection was carried out and included summarising demographic, epidemiological and clinical data. This kind of approaches allows to identify new regional virus genotypes and to select strains that cause latent clinical forms.

The study of natural foci of Crimean-Congo fever was carried out under the pretext of improving the Ukrainian epidemiological surveillance system, with the participation of the Institute of Veterinary Medicine in Kiev and the Mechnikov Anti-Plague Institute in Odessa.

Bundeswehr's interest in Crimean-Congo fever stems from the fact that mortality can be as high as 30% and its outbreaks create a need for lengthy and costly treatment, preventive and special handling measures.

This is a quote from Bundeswehr's instructions: '...pay particular attention to fatal cases of infection with Crimean-Congo fever as it allows the virus strains with maximum pathogenicity and virulence for humans to be extracted from the dead individuals...'

Apart from Germany, microbiologists from the USA have shown a keen interest in tick-borne infections; research in this area has been funded by DTRA through the UP-1 and UP-8 projects.

A separate project on ixodid ticks that are vectors of a number of highly dangerous infections (tularemia, West Nile fever, Congo-Crimean fever) has been implemented by the University of Texas.

Ticks used to be collected in the south-eastern regions of Ukraine, where natural foci of infections characteristic of the territory of the Russian Federation are located. At the same time, the period of implementing this work coincided with a rapid increase in the incidence of tick-borne borreliosis among the Ukrainian population, as well as the increase in the number of ticks in various regions of Russia bordering Ukraine.

This issue is being studied by competent Russian professionals in coordination with professionals from the Ministry of Defence of Russia.

We have previously pointed out the significance of the results of the military-biological projects codenamed UP for the Pentagon.

Note the report prepared for the U.S. Defence Department by Black & Veatch and Metabiota. According to the document, Veterinary Projects codenamed 'TAP' were implemented simultaneously with the UP projects in Ukraine.

Their main guideline lies in economically significant quarantine infections capable of damaging the agriculture of several countries and entire regions, such as glanders, African swine fever (ASF), classical swine fever, highly pathogenic avian influenza and Newcastle disease.

African swine fever with two projects dedicated to this pathogen represented particular interest to U.S. military biologists.

The TAP-3 project was aimed to study the spread of ASF pathogen through wild animals. The migration routes of wild boar through Ukraine had been examining within its framework. The TAP-6 project scaled this process up to Eastern European countries.

The study of vector populations of dangerous zoonotic infections was carried out by staff of the Institute of New Pathogens of the University of Florida (Gainesville) in Volyn, Rovno, Zhitomir and Chernigov regions of Ukraine, as well as in the areas bordering Belarus and Russia.

Note the worsening situation of African swine fever in Eastern European countries: According to the International Office of Epizootics, since 2014, outbreaks have been recorded in Latvia (4,021 cases), Estonia (3,814) and Lithuania (4,201). In Poland, more than 13,000 cases of ASF have been detected, and agricultural losses from the disease have exceeded 2.4 billion euro.

We have already emphasised the use of biological weapons in Cuba in the 1970s and 1980s. Today, I would like to focus on U.S. military-biological activities during the Korean War.

In March 2022, the U.S. Army Strategic Studies Institute published a report on the U.S. chemical and biological weapons programme during the Korean War. This report was aimed to create a possible line of defence against allegations of illegal activities carried out by U.S. biolaboratories in Ukraine.

The document attempts to refute the testimony of 38 U.S. military pilots who have admitted using biological weapons in China and Korea.

According to the document, while preparing for the Korean campaign, '...the U.S. Air Force secured additional funds to purchase large quantities of chemical and biological munitions, obtained a testing range for them in Canada and carried out an extensive conceptual work on their use...'

At that time, the Americans considered brucellosis pathogens and economically important infections, including wheat stem rust, as priority biological agents. 2,500 munitions of this type the U.S. Air Force Strategic Air Command planned to use, including '...to attack Soviet grain crops...'

Analysis of the data mentioned in the report shows that the U.S. command uses the results of the research received from the Japanese military-biological programme and a certain 'continuity' of the works previously carried out by the Detachment 731 led by Shiro Ishii.

This is the record of the closed session of CIA, State Department and the Pentagon representatives dated July 7, 1953. The document clearly shows that the Americans are focusing on techniques to manipulate public opinion and launch an aggressive counter-attack within their strategies aimed to defend from allegations. The report states that the officials are reluctant to actual investigations of chemical and biological incidents due to fears of revealing the activities carried out by the U.S. Eighth Army.

Thus, the comparative analysis of U.S. activities during the Korean War and currently in Ukraine demonstrates the persistence of the U.S. policy of building up its own military and biological capabilities in circumvention of international agreements.

In conclusion, I would like to present real data on the health condition of the voluntarily surrendered Ukrainian servicemen. This diapositive presents the data on presence of antibodies to contagious disease agents without mentioning personal data of these servicemen.

The results are as follows: 33% of the examined servicemen had had hepatitis A, over 4% had renal syndrome fever and 20% had West Nile fever. The figures are significantly higher than the statistical average. In view of active research of these diseases held by the Pentagon within the Ukrainian projects, there is reason to believe that servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) were involved as volunteers in experiments to assess the tolerance of dangerous infectious diseases.

The lack of therapeutic effect of antibacterial medication has been reported during in-patient treatment of AFU servicemen in medical facilities. High concentrations of antibiotics, including sulphonyl amides and fluoroquinolones, have been detected in their blood. This fact may indicate preventive use of antibiotics and preparation of personnel for operating in conditions of biological contamination, such as cholera agent, that indirectly proves the information of the Russian Defence Ministry that Ukrainian special units were planning to use biological agents.

The data will be included in the U.S. military-biological dossier and we will continue to examine it and keep you informed.”

Annex: Six PPT slides to this Report in English are attached separately.

В вашем браузере не установлен плагин для просмотра PDF-файлов, но вы можете скачать этот файл и просмотреть на своем ПК

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 97. Kiev continues to terrorize civilians in Donbass

July 9,2022

1.  AFU continue to terrorize the civilian population in Donbass with the help of NATO

Armed Forces of Ukraine or AFU are inflicting massive artillery strikes on residential areas and civilian infrastructure in the DPR, which are not military facilities.

During the July 9th, according to information from the Joint Coordination Center (JCC) of the DPR, the enemy fired more than 160 shells by using Uragan and Grad MLRS, 155mm (NATO-made), 152mm and 122mm barrel artillery, as well as 120mm mortars.

The shelling took place in fourteen settlements of the DPR. Eight civilians were wounded as a result of the shelling. Thirteen residential buildings and three civilian infrastructure facilities were damaged.

During last three days AFU fired more than 750 shells against the DPR killing 11 people, including three small children on the kid’s playground, and wounding 37.

It is a state-sponsored terrorism, encouraged by the USA and other NATO countries.

2. Ukraine cut off gas supply to Zaporozhye Region

“Kyiv regime” cut off gas supply to the Zaporozhye region. This was announced in his Telegram channel by the head of the local military-civilian administration Yevgeny Balitsky. He stressed that experts examined the pipe and concluded that there was no damage.

“We understand for sure, we were turned off. The Kiev regime does not need the Zaporozhye Region, neither in people, nor in the region. These are their methods, which they used in the Crimea. Methods of genocide – turning off people’s water, gas, electricity,” Balitsky said in his address.

A comment: this is a traditional method practiced by ultra-nationalist Kiev regime. Constant shelling of water and gas pipelines in Donbass by AFU is a strategy pursued by Zelensky. For the last eight years Ukrainian presidents blocked water supply to the Crimea via special canal.

He added that the authorities of the Zaporozhye Region appealed to the Russian government with a request to supply electrical appliances and help in the current emergency.

3. Humanitarian and other issues

On July 9 the Joint Coordination Headquarters (JCHQ) of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response issued a statement of the developments in this domain.

The JCHQ continues to record the facts of the inhumane treatment of civilians and use of educational institutions for military purposes by AFU:

a) in Viry, Sumy region, in a school, foreign mercenaries have deployed their manpower, armament and munitions depots, as well as hardware and artillery near the educational institution;

b) in Krivoy Rog, in the gymnasium №44 (V.Skripki Street), Ukrainian nationalists have deployed their armoured equipment, artillery and MLRS, as well as observation posts around the perimeter of the educational institution;

c) in Kharkov, in the school №165 (Metrostroiteley Street), militants of Kraken nationalist battalion have deployed their manpower, a strongpoint with armament and munitions depots;

d) in New York, Donetsk People's Republic, in the school №17 (Shkolny Alley), units of the AFU have deployed their strongpoint with armament and munitions depot, as well as armoured equipment, MRLS and artillery at the adjacent territory, while the approaches to the educational institution have been mined and the local population has intentionally been left uninformed.

Despite the repeated statements made by the JCHQ this kind of facts of inhumane treatment to the civilian population remains neglected by the international community and organizations.

It has been reliably elicited that the Ukrainian authorities ordered to conduct punitive policing in Nikolayev in order to detect and publicly punish pro-Russian citizens, as well as individuals who show their dissatisfaction with the policies of the Kiev regime.

With this purpose, employees of the Security Service of Ukraine and up to 500 militants from Tsunami nationalist battalion have arrived in Nikolayev from Kiev, Odessa and Lvov ready to carry out this kind of intimidating campaigns.

The major cynicism of this kind of inhumane acts lies in the readiness of the Kiev regime to sacrifice the lives of their own citizens in order to reach this asset that completely copies the methodology practiced by Nazis at the occupied areas during the Great National War.

In addition, according to the available information, various employees of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry are drug addicts and have a wide criminal experience: convictions of robberies, thefts, arms trafficking, burglaries, infliction of grave bodily injuries and rapes. This is the way persistent criminals have legally covered under the AFU. These facts have proved that the inhumane provocations, including those that cause deaths among civilian population, are planned and held by individuals with criminal experience. At the same time, the cases of mockery and tortures carried out by the Kiev regime against its own people have been registered and proved enough.

These crimes are being investigated in detail, the delinquent will no doubt receive their punishment.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 2,409,234 people have already been evacuated to Russia, including 379,227 are children.

4. Situation in the Black Sea

In addition, 70 foreign vessels from 16 countries remain blocked in six Ukrainian ports by Kiev who refuses to deactivate sea mines it had places on a massive scale (Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhniy). The threat of shelling and high mine danger posed by official Kiev prevent merchant vessels from entering the high seas unhindered. The danger to navigation from Ukrainian mines drifting off their anchors along the coasts of Black Sea states remains. The Kiev authorities continue to avoid engaging with representatives of states and ship-owning companies to resolve the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area.


Between February 25 and March 4, 2022, the remnants of the Ukrainian navy's mine clearing forces planted about 420 sea anchor mines of the YaM-1 type in the waters of Black and Azov seas, including 370 such mines in the Black Sea

and 50 in the Azov Sea (see: Report # 33 dated April 1st, 2022)


Since April 1st, 2022 the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have opened two maritime humanitarian corridors that constitute safe passages for navigation, including:

a) in the Black Sea (every day from 08:00 AM to 07:00 PM) to leave Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhnyi ports towards south-west from Ukraine's territorial sea, 139 miles long and 3 miles wide;

b) in the Sea of Azov (uninterruptedly) to leave Mariupol port, 115 miles long and 2 miles wide, towards the Black Sea.

Detailed information on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridors is broadcast daily every 15 minutes by VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels in English and Russian.

The Russian Federation is taking a full range of comprehensive measures to ensure the safety of civilian navigation in the waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

5. The Pentagon provides another military package to Ukraine for $400 million

Four HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) MLRS mounted on a wheeled chassis, ammunition for them and artillery shells, among other things, were included in another US military assistance package to Ukraine for $400 million, the US Department of Defense announced on July 8.

According to the US Department of Defense, the new aid package also includes 1,000 155mm artillery rounds, three tactical vehicles, demolition charges, counter-battery systems, and spare parts for military equipment.

The DoD said that they continue to train Ukrainian military personnel in the use of HIMARS in combat.

Military expert Boris Rozhin commented on the supply of new missiles for the HIMARS MLRS with a range of up to 300 km. He believes that the announced deliveries hint at the preparation of strikes deep into Russian territory.

A comment: such a possibility exists. It will be unverifiable to check HIMARS’ maximum firing ranges – 80 or 300 km.

In Nikolaev, Odessa, and Kharkov regions the Ukrainian armed forces continue to build fortified zones and deploy weapons, which can reach the liberated territories of the DPR, said Viktor Vodolatsky, first deputy chairman of the Duma committee on CIS affairs, Eurasian integration and relations with compatriots. “And it will be able to shoot at the territories of Russian cities – Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk regions. Therefore, the task today is to make sure that the weapons that are supplied by the West are pushed back to a distance so that they do not reach the border of the LNR and DNR, and, naturally, Russia,” the deputy specified.

He also noted that the LNR units will start helping the Donetsk People’s Republic to liberate Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, Avdiyivka and help the republic to enter its administrative borders.

6. Kraken battalion refuses to comply with Ukrainian command’s orders

The Russian Defense Ministry has reported that the Ukrainian neo-Nazi Kraken battalion has refused to follow orders from the command.

According to a statement by the Russian Defence Ministry, the personnel of the Kraken battalion were ordered to move to the town of Pokrovske (Kharkov Region). However, the fighters refused to carry out the command’s order.

“Thus, on July 7, the 226th battalion of the Ukrainian nationalist formation Kraken was ordered to move from Kharkov to the area of the village of Pokrovskoye – to the subordination of the Soledar operational tactical group. However, the nationalist commanders and the militants refused to carry out this order,” the ministry said.

The Russian Defence Ministry also noted that an order had been sent to the battalion “to shorten the treatment of wounded servicemen and send them without rehabilitation to make up for unit losses in combat areas.”

The Defence Ministry concluded that the cases of the National Battalions sent to the front line by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which previously performed the tasks of barrier troops in the rear areas, indicate an acute shortage of personnel in the first-echelon units.

7. Situation on the battlefields

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine. The enemy suffers considerable losses on all fronts.

Attack launched at the positions of 99th Mechanised Battalion from 61st Chaser Infantry Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) near Bereznegovatoye (Nikolayev region) has resulted in the elimination of over 75 nationalists and about 30 armoured and motor vehicles.

High-precision attack launched by Russian Aerospace Forces has resulted in the neutralisation of provisional base deployed by Tornado nationalist battalion near Zelenodolsk (Dnepropetrovsk region). Over 40 militants and up to 10 units of armament and military equipment have been eliminated.

Dure to numerous losses and desertion, units of 127th Territorial Defence Brigade deployed in Kharkov are being manned by former criminals.

Attack launched by Russian Aerospace Forces at the positions of an artillery battalion from 72nd Mechanised Brigade of the AFU deployed near Soledar, over 30 per cent of personnel have been eliminated and the major part of artillery guns have been neutralised.

High-precision attack launched by Russian Aerospace Forces has resulted in the elimination of a hangar that stored M-777 U.S.-manufactured 155-mm howitzers and up to 30 Ukrainian militants who had been shelling residential areas of Donetsk.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised 22 command posts, including those of 98th Battalion from 108th Territorial Defence Brigade near Novovorontsovka (Dnepropetrovsk region), 16th Mechanised Brigade near Pokrovskoye (Donetsk People's Republic), artillery units at their firing positions in 72 areas, as well as AFU manpower and military equipment in 117 areas, including 2 bases of foreign mercenaries deployed near Kharkov.

5 munitions depots have been destroyed near Pershetravnevoye (Dnepropetrovsk region), Visunsk (Nikolayev region), Bakhmutskoye and Seversk (Donetsk People's Republic), as well as 1 depot of fuel for military equipment near Annovka (Kirovograd region).

Su-35S and MiG-31BM aeroplanes of Russian Aerospace Forces have shot down 2 Su-25 of Ukrainian Air Force near Bereznegovatoye and Chervonaya Dolina (Nikolayev region).

In addition, Russian air defence means have destroyed 15 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Dolgenkoye, Brazhkovka, Zelyonoye, Yakovenkovo, Peski-Radkovskiye, Grushevka, Chervony Oskol (Kharkov region), Donetsk and Svyatogorsk (Donetsk People's Republic).

6 projectiles launched by Uragan MRLS have been intercepted near Dolgenkoye (Kharkov region) and Gornoye (Donetsk People's Republic).

From February 24th, 2022 in total, 239 military airplanes and 137 helicopters, 1,503 unmanned aerial vehicles, 353 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,994 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 738 combat vehicles equipped with MRLS, 3,117 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 4,099 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

8. British journalist: The West deliberately does not notice the crimes of Ukraine in Donetsk

British journalist John Miller arrived in Donetsk, where he personally saw the criminal shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He told a German journalist Alina Lipp about this in an interview (see: photo). John Miller spoke about the shelling of Donetsk by the Armed Forces of Ukraine that shocked him.

“It is the Ukrainian side that has been killing civilians here for years, and this is not reported in the West,” Miller told the journalist. He focused on the fact that the collective West purposefully does not notice the criminal actions of the Kyiv regime, exposing Russia as an “aggressor”. Miller said that the Ukrainian artillery had been organizing and continues to organize acts of terror against civilians in Donbass for a long time.

“This is the first war in Europe in a long time, and there is not a single British or American journalist here! Because if they were here, they would have to report that Ukraine is shelling them here,” the journalist said.

A reminder: during 2014-2022 AFU killed 13,000 and injured 34,000 civilians in Donbass wishing not to join Ukrainian ultra-Nazi regime.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report # 98. Russia calls out the U.S. goal in arming Ukraine

July 10, 2022

1. The Russian Embassy in the USA says the delivery of four more HIMARS units is intended to prolong the conflict

The diplomatic mission's statement went on to suggest that the planned delivery of additional MLRS of such type is intended to make up for growing casualties among Ukrainian forces. It dismissed the Pentagon’s claim that such weapons are being used by Kiev for defensive purposes.

The Ukrainian military and “nationalist groups are deploying US-supplied weapons to destroy cities of Donbass,” the statement added.

The Russian diplomats claimed that the “Ukrainian Armed Forces are constantly deliberately targeting residential areas of Donetsk,” including parts of the city where there are no Russian troops. As a result of this, “civilians are dying,” according to the embassy.

The goal of the Russian Federation is to put an end to the terror of the Kiev regime,” the embassy proclaimed, adding that “Washington with its actions is not bringing peace closer, but on the contrary, is encouraging the Ukrainian authorities to commit new blood crimes.

When asked by a journalist about the total number of HIMARS units that Ukraine would have after receiving the new four ones, the Pentagon representative said Kiev would have 12 such systems at its disposal.


The Russian MoD warned July 10, that it will destroy any HIMARS unit

if they appear in Ukraine


Russian military officials also said that the Russian troops struck at the point of temporary deployment of the artillery unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. As a result of the strike, up to 100 personnel and more than 1 thousand artillery shells for M777 howitzers made in the USA were destroyed. The Russian Air Force also struck two hangars in which artillery pieces of this type used in the shelling of Donetsk were stored.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov admitted that AFU suffer heavy losses and their arms are exhausting.

2. LPR Ambassador Rodion Miroshnik: the Allied forces continue their offensive against Seversk

Allied troops (Russian plus the DPR and the LPR troops) continue to conduct military operations to liberate Serebryanka, 10 km from Seversk in the DPR. This was stated by the Ambassador of the Luhansk People’s Republic to Russia, Rodion Miroshnik. According to him, retreating Ukrainian militants are trying to shell the already liberated territories, e.g. Novodruzhesk a suburb of Lisichansk, liberated July 3rd.

3. “American Thinker”: Russia will triumphantly complete the special operation

Western countries have underestimated Russia’s will to win in Ukraine. “American Thinker” journalists say that those who do not believe in the victory of Russia are simply trying to put on a good face in a bad game. Observers of the American edition noted that Western countries underestimated Russia’s will to win, since Moscow will never allow Ukraine to join NATO.

In a blog written by Jared Peterson on July 8, 2022 entitled “Russia's will to win in Ukraine”, its author partly noted the following: 

“By Western countries could avoid the crisis in Ukraine, for this it was enough to maintain its neutral status, give autonomy to Donbass and recognize Crimea as Russian. 
Western policy elites who claim not to have seen this war coming – after the Biden administration treated Ukraine as a de facto member of NATO during all of 2021, and after Russia had been saying for nearly a decade that it would not tolerate Ukraine as a U.S. military bulwark on its border – are just plain fools.  If they really were this blind, they were unqualified for their jobs.
Before the war started, as late as December of 2021, the Russians very probably would have settled the Ukraine problem by a declaration of permanent Ukrainian neutrality (i.e., no NATO membership, ever); some form of reasonable autonomy for the Russian-speaking, pro-Russian Donbas within Ukraine; and recognition of Crimea as Russian. This settlement in no way would have adversely affected legitimate U.S./Western interests.  …
The Russians will not be defeated, period, for the simple reason that, by orders of magnitude, Ukraine means more to them than it does to us.  They see a Ukraine within NATO, armed to the teeth with U.S. sophisticated weapons aimed at them, as an existential threat to mother Russia.  They won't let it happen.  They have said so for years.  If the war looks as though it's moving toward a Russian defeat, they will do what it takes to avert that.   We don't want that outcome.  That way lies catastrophe. …
Other things being roughly equal (as they are in this war), victory in war goes to the side with the greater commitment and willingness to suffer.  Russia has the greater will in this war.  And it knows how to suffer.  Therefore, it wins. …
It was a fool's errand for the U.S. to provoke this war, and for that matter a fool's errand from the start (1999), for the U.S. to expand NATO eastward in the total absence of any Russian threat after the collapse of the Soviet Union”.
 

My comment:
 
Russia will win because:
 
1. It seeks the noble goal – to protect Russians, Ukrainians and other nations in Donbass, Crimea and in some other areas of Ukraine who do not want to live in a neo-fascist state in Europe.
2. It has a noble goal – like it did in the WWII – once again to eliminate fascism in Europe created and nourished by a group of totalitarian and non-democratic states.
3. It will not accept the policy of global domination and diktat professed by a handful of NATO authoritarian leaders. 
4. It desires to create a qualitatively new world order based on equality of all nations, free trade without illegal sanctions, and free from three major types of arms races: nuclear arms race, missile defense arms race, and space-based arms race.

 
Written by Vladimir P. Kozin
 
 

Report # 99. Biden must pay a huge price for waging war against Donbass

July 11, 2022

1. US-supplied HIMARS killed three civilians in Donbass

All victims were engaged in a humanitarian mission, DPR officials claim. A Ukrainian strike on Donbass that used US-supplied М142 HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) has claimed the lives of three civilians and injured 39 others, the fatalities being part of a humanitarian mission, authorities in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) reported on July 11th.

According to authorities of the DPR, additional information was received about civilian casualties as a result of shelling with the use of MLRS M142 "HIMARS" in the Amvrosievsky district.

Died were men born in 2003, 1992 and 2003; 39 people received injuries of various degrees, including a woman born in 1963, and men born in 1986, 1980, 1983, 1992, 2002, 1990, 2003, 1987, 1996, 1986, 1995, 1985, 1977, 2003, 1996, 2003, 1981, 2000, 2001, 1994, 1985, 1989, 1996, 2001, 1986, 1972, 1993, 1970, 1973, 1997, 1983, 1971, 1994, 1973, 1981, 1996 and born in 2002; the personal data of another victim is being established.

“It should be noted that all the victims are volunteers of the public organization ‘Young Republic’ and came under fire as they carried out a humanitarian mission to assist the local population,” the DPR authorities said, offering condolences to the families of the deceased and wishing speedy recovery to the injured.

According to the DPR’s representatives from the Joint Centre for Control and Coordination on ceasefire (JCCC), the Ukrainian missile strike in question hit Amvrosievsky district on July 10.

Amid the Ukraine conflict, the US and its allies have been supplying Kiev with financial, humanitarian and military aid to help it conquer Donbass. The recent deliveries included four more M142 HIMARS and ammunition.

According to the Pentagon, the US provided Kiev with eight HIMARS systems since the beginning of the conflict. If these latest package of HIMARS arrives to Ukraine, it would mean that totally there will be 12. Last week, however, Russian authorities claimed they destroyed two of these rocket systems in the DPR.

Moscow has repeatedly condemned Western efforts to support Ukraine’s military, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying in June that “flooding” Ukraine with foreign weapons will not change the course of the conflict and will only lead to more suffering and destruction in the country.

President Biden is personally responsible for all these victims, all of them being civilians.

The Biden administration is sending to Ukraine four more medium-range rocket artillery systems and higher-precision ammunition in a new package of donated weapons that defense officials said would allow Ukrainian forces to save bullets for a conflict that could extend for months or years. 

The $400 million offering is the United States’ third in as many weeks as the Pentagon tries to catch up to Ukrainian forces’ needs to launch counter-strikes and hold off further Russian advances in the Donbas region. The United States has provided $7.3 billion in military aid to Ukraine since last February, a defense official told reporters July 8.


My question: does such uncapable man named Zelensky needs so much money to safe him for the sake of destruction and disintegration of Ukraine, and to pay much more money for the self-created economic recession, energy crisis, etc, in the countries of the collective West?


The United States has already provided 126 Howitzers and 410,000 artillery rounds to Zelensky.

On the other hand, the USA and its allies will not be able to maintain their current level of support for Kiev for a prolonged period of time, The New York Times reports citing anonymous officials.

Despite the fact that US President Biden has vowed to stand with Ukraine for "as long as it takes," no one expects more billions of support for Ukraine when Washington’s currently authorized aid package of $54 billion in military and other assistance runs out, the newspaper said on July 9.

Officials admitted to the newspaper that US and European stocks of weapons will run low at some point and it would be hard to sustain the same level of material support as war fatigue grows.

2. Ukraine has million-strong army to retake South: Ukrainian defense minister

Ukraine has amassed a million soldiers, at the behest of President Volodymyr Zelensky, to recapture its southern areas, defense minister Alexei Reznikov has claimed in an interview with The Times.  “We understand that, politically, it’s very necessary for our country. The president has given the order to the supreme military chief to draw up plans,” he said in an interview published on July 10. “We have approximately 700,000 in the armed forces and when you add the national guard, police, border guard, we are around a million strong,” the minister added.


My comment:

Usually, in a war time supreme military commanders never reveal their strategic military plans. Or, if they sometimes do so – it is a part of carefully arranged disinformation (naturally, not announced by C-in-C) – announced by other means of deception with the aim to deceive the enemy.

On the other hand, let’s assume that Zelensky really has such schemes in mind.  But: Kiev does not have enough human resources “to regain South” and not enough military contingents to fight many days and nights along 500-1000 km front line; actually not enough tanks and APCs; not enough combat aircraft; not enough naval vessels to support the advancing troops on the ground.

By the way, “the South” militarily is not so weak. More than that: the overwhelming majority of people living in the “South” do not want to stay in a failed, undemocratic and war-mongering state named “Ukraine”.

Alexei Reznikov statement is an announcement of unprofessional defense minister seeking chip popularity in the Western press. Or/and he is wishing to consolidate morale of the AFU that has reached very low-key level.


However, Zelensky said that he had not read an interview with the head of the country's Defense Ministry in which he announced Kiev's plans to launch a counteroffensive in the south, and refused to comment on military plans.

In the interview Reznikov praised the British effort to help Ukraine, especially Ben Wallace, Britain’s defense secretary, who, according to him, was key to helping shift the approach from providing Soviet equipment to NATO-standard 155mm artillery, guided multiple launch rocket systems and high-tech drones. Reznikov should have praised Boris Johnson who gave advice to Zelensky to shell adjacent Russian territory by long-range MLRS.

New recruits to the Ukrainian army are trained by UK army specialists at a military base near Manchester, England. Some of them are trained to use MLRS.

The State Duma (the lower House of Russian Parliament) Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said that ex-British PM Boris Johnson should be trialed as a war criminal.  Volodin noted: “"Boris Johnson is behind the shelling of our peaceful cities – Belgorod [and] Kursk. British subjects should know this, he is also one of the main ideologists of the war against Russia to the last Ukrainian." Also, the leaders of European states should think about what such a policy leads to, the Speaker added.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report #188. Some visions on the U.S. plans for Russia and the "Korean scenario" for Ukraine

 

January 10, 2023.

By Anna Cherkasova, Correspondent

Political scientist Vladimir Kozin talks to Ukraina.ru about the future of the SMO or Special Military Operation in 2023 and the events on the line of contact

Q: Vladimir Petrovich, AFU [Armed Forces of Ukraine] fighters record video appeals to the chieftains, in which they talk about the deplorable situation on the line of hostilities, lament that they are not properly armed, have no equipment or training. Ukrainian political analyst Oleg Soskin reports about this in his blog. Why do you think this is happening when Europe, the USA and Great Britain are training Ukrainian soldiers in warfare tactics?

A: Soldiers and officers of the AFU have been recording such video appeals to the current Ukrainian military and political leadership practically since the beginning of the SMO. Moreover, they do it proactively and in very emotional tones, not shying away from using even strong language to address their mediocre superiors.

Similar harsh words to their address are also repeated by Ukrainian prisoners of war. The described reaction of the AFU is caused by the fact that Ukrainian servicemen on the front line lack not only weapons and ammunition, but also normal food and seasonal uniforms.

More and more Ukrainian soldiers and officers also complain that they are thrown into the hotbed of it, while NATO mercenaries are spared; that the salaries and combat supply of servicemen who came from the Eastern regions of Ukraine are severely inferior to those distributed to soldiers and officers from the Western regions and to its neo-Nazi armed formations.

There are more and more complaints on the part of the AFU about the tactical and technical characteristics of NATO heavy weapons supplied to the Ukrainian army from the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance and some non-aligned partners of the USA.

Why is this happening when all of European nations, the United States and the Great Britain are training Ukrainian soldiers in warfare tactics?

The fact is that NATO member states, which have taken on the task of training the AFU soldiers, are not capable of training all Ukrainian conscripts.

Especially, in a short period of time. Especially, those who have weak general and initial military training and those who do not know English in general terms and professional military English, in particular.

There are more and more statements being made against the military and political leadership in Ukraine. For more than eight years it has been conducting aggressive actions against its own citizens living in Donbass that contradicts the Constitution of Ukraine.

Since February 14 of last year, that is, ten days before the SMO commenced, Kyiv launched a large-scale combined aggression against the DPR and LPR, projecting it mainly against their civilian population.

This resulted in enormous civilian casualties and millions of Ukrainian refugees, as well as tremendous military expenditures allocated by Ukraine, a dramatic drop in its GDP, and loss of its territory. Ukraine has paid too high a price for its own aggression.

There are also more and more voices within the AFU against the oppression of Orthodoxy in Ukraine and the raiding of Orthodox Christian cathedrals and churches.

Q: Military action in Ukraine, according to local political analysts, is primarily part of the struggle to change the world order, not "for" or "against" Ukraine. What keeps Ukraine within the Western framework and why has it chosen this particular path?

A: Yes, I believe that the aggression of Ukraine and NATO now against Russia – which took place after the incorporation of the four new former Ukrainian entities into Russia in early October 2022 – was planned precisely with such profound aims as changing the world order in favor of the West.

But first, the objectives of the West were minimal: to return Crimea and the four administrative entities in Donbass and Southern Ukraine, and then to wear down Russia militarily, financially and economically by achieving its own disintegration.

The West also planned to admit Ukraine to NATO in order to have a permanent armed conflict with the adjacent Russian territories.

Q: Why has Russia failed to lead Ukraine along its own path?

A: Russia failed to lead Ukraine along its own road, to ensure its non-aligned and friendly character relative to itself as a result of significant systemic mistakes in the political, trade and economic sphere, and in informational-explanatory domain, as well as improper appointments of personnel at a very high level.

There was not enough courage to repeat a similar situation, which was successfully carried out in Crimea in 2014, in Donbass as well.

In addition, the negative impact manifested itself as a result of the incorrect and factually unsound qualification of a number of leading NATO countries as "peacekeepers" and "supporters of a peaceful resolution" of Kiev's internal aggression against its own citizens.

It began after acting Ukrainian president Turchinov issued a decree on April 13, 2014 to begin Kiev's internal aggression against civilians in Donbass under the pretext of fighting the never-existing "terrorist threat from the DPR and LPR”.

To our deep regret, for too long we have called NATO aggressors and militarists, who always wished only ill fate for the Soviet Union and later for Russia after 1991, as our “partners” and “colleagues”.

Q: Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov said that Kiev has been or may be offered a "Korean scenario" for a settlement that involves partitioning the country – by drawing the so-called "conditional 38th parallel.” What are the prospects for such scenario?

A: The implementation of this plan would mean one thing. There will be a permanent armed confrontation between Ukraine and Russia, unless there entrench sane, non-corrupt, and friendly leaders in Kiev who are friendly to their own citizens, and to the Russian Federation. If there are "two Ukraines," as there are two Koreas, then the pro-Western part of Ukraine will join NATO, deploy U.S. nuclear and anti-missile weapons, and continue to destabilize Europe and the world as a whole.

Ukraine's new political and military leadership must ensure that Ukraine will have a non-aligned, neutral and non-nuclear status, as well as cease its aggression against Russia. Kiev must once and for all recognize the existing realities with Moscow politically, legally, territorially and geographically, as well as to conclude an open-ended peace treaty with it.

Q: Does the U.S. need an all-out victory over Russia? And how might this look in the eyes of Washington?

A: Yes, I'm sure it does. This is evidenced by the key military strategies approved by Joseph Biden last October, the huge amounts of military aid given to the criminal Ukrainian regime by countries-members of the Alliance of the "transatlantic solidarity" and others wishing to continue the large-scale aggression of Ukraine and NATO against Russia.

As well as by those who continue the deployment on Ukrainian soil of heavy weapons generously supplied by the West, the participation of NATO troops under the guise of "mercenaries" in the ranks of the AFU.

The strategic goal of the U.S. and NATO with regard to Russia has been and remains unchanged – to ensure its collapse and its complete destruction as a state bearing such name. Those who have not yet understood this are doomed to tectonic defeat and eternal sorrow.

[the original text may be found at: https://ukraina.ru/20230109/1042467118.html under the heading: “Vladimir Kozin on the U.S. plans for Russia and the "Korean scenario" “for Ukraine”]

 

 

 

Report 121. Kiev’s attack on the ZNPP. Must not to be camouflaged

August 10, 2022

On August 7, the Armed Forces of Ukraine or AFU again subjected the territory of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to direct and intentional artillery fire. Two their previous attempts to destroy this plant the largest in Europe happened quite recently: on July 20 and August 5, 2022. The repetition of such nuclear terrorism by Kiev was the result of ‘I do not see anything’ behavior displayed by two international chieftains controlling the IAEA and the UNO. Noticing such policy, Kiev, no doubt, will repeat such attacks on the ZNPP or any other located kin Ukraine.


The strike was carried out by a Uragan MLRS rockets, fragments of which were found less than 400 meters from the power unit of the ZNPP.


Probably, the purpose of the "nuclear terrorists" was the reactor cooling system. President Zelensky knows for sure. Nuclear spent fuel storage facilities were in the affected area. The authorities of the Zaporozhye region offered the IAEA to get acquainted with the evidence on the spot that it is the Ukrainian military who are shelling the nuclear power plant and are trying to arrange provocations that are dangerous for the majority of nations in Europe and the Black Sea area. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation confirmed its readiness to receive the agency's mission at the NPP.

In a daily video message, President of Ukraine Zelensky again did not fail to draw the attention of the West to Kyiv, raising the degree of tension with an emphasis on threats to European security. Only he delicately left the question of the admission of IAEA experts aside to visit the ZNPP, as the conclusions they draw in the event of an inspection will reveal the truth about the real attacker, which will automatically secure the status of a “terrorist state” for Ukraine.

In Kyiv, they say that Moscow is shelling this nuclear power plant, which is under its own control. Strange argument. To contaminate Russian territory?

 After publication in the British daily tabloid the Daily Mail, an article that passed off the blows as Russian actions was followed by a lot of comments. The British express deep doubts about the truth of the accusations based on "fake Ukrainian reliable sources" and call for an end to the provision of assistance to Ukraine. Readers of the Figaro edition are perplexed, is it really that "Kyiv is holding everyone in the West for idiots", in every possible way trying to "pass off such nonsense as the truth." On August 10, the reaction of Washington, expected and so desired by Zelensky, followed. White House press secretary Jean-Pierre urged Russia to "cease all hostilities at or near Ukrainian nuclear facilities and return full control to Ukraine." Denying the obvious, she praised the "efforts in maintaining nuclear security”, which Ukraine allegedly applies in “these difficult conditions”.


Jean-Pierre has forgotten that the latest Kiev’s attack upon the ZNPP is not the first one. In July and August Kiev three times ‘played with fire’ there. In other words: ‘played with potential radioactive disaster’ in the heart of Europe.


Dmitry Orlov, Ukrainian mayor of Energodar, a city located very close to the ZNPP, commenting on the UAV strikes on the industrial zone and the ZNPP itself on July 12 and 18, confirmed their infliction by the Ukrainian side, saying that "the goals were achieved, the Russians died." In early August, the website of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine published a statement by the Main Intelligence Directorate, which stated that in July, Ukrainian forces had inflicted strikes on Russian positions near the NPP. Regarding the reasons for the events of August 5, Kyiv propagandists could not avoid contradictions in the versions of what happened, voiced by Ukrainian officials. The same mayor of Energodar announced the strikes of the Russian Armed Forces from the territory of the nuclear power plant on residential areas of Energodar. On the contrary, the head of JSC "Energoatom" of Ukraine argued the opposite, that the blows were delivered in the direction of the NPP. In his Telegram channel, the head of the military administration, located on the opposite side of the Dnieper, controlled by Ukraine, Nikopol, Evgeniy Yevtushenko, also regularly confirmed the work of the artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the direction of Energodar.

Surprisingly, the focus of public statements on the "Zaporozhye" theme of the IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi softened after the UAF inflicted several strikes on nuclear power plant in Zaporozhye. This is probably due to the politicization of the organization. Thus, after the transfer of Energodar to the control of the Russian Federation, there were dozens of loud calls about the inadmissibility of “dual control” of nuclear power plants, allegedly because of the threat of possible disagreements between Ukrainian operators and Russian specialists.


Today, in the conditions of systematic shelling of a nuclear power facility by artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the rhetoric of statements is reduced to only "we are concerned about the situation." No specific decisions. No plans for counteraction. No future data for inspections. Nothing concrete. Shame!


Advisor to the Director of the Russian Scientific Center "Kurchatov Institute", Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Andrey Gagarinsky, on the air of Sputnik radio, called the Ukrainian shelling of the Zaporozhye NPP "barbarism" and called on the IAEA leadership to take urgent measures. He noted that humanity spends huge amounts of money to protect nuclear power plants from all known natural and man-made phenomena, however, until today, "no one in the world has tried to protect such facilities from direct artillery strikes."

A radioactive catastrophe cannot be avoided, both in the case of the destruction of the concrete protection of one or several power units, and the destruction of the reactor cooling system.

Back in May 2022, the State Inspectorate for Nuclear Regulation of Ukraine published a forecast for the spread of a radioactive cloud in the event of an accident at the ZNPP, according to which, along with Russia, the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine, Turkey and other countries of the Black Sea basin will suffer.

The Republic of Moldova is already taking preventive measures in case of radiation contamination. Thus, on August 9, the head of the Main Department of Medical and Social Assistance in Chisinau, Boris Gylke, published recommendations in the regional print publication EurAsia Daily in the event of a nuclear disaster at the ZNPP. The head of the Ministry of Health of Moldova, Alla Nemerenko, signed an agreement with her Romanian counterpart Alexander Rafila on the supply of more than a million tablets of potassium iodide to Chisinau to reduce inevitable radioactive contamination.

Who will pay for all this? And in all other similar cases? President Zelensky? Or the UN Secretary General Guterres? Or the Head of the IAEA Grossi? I believe: all of them.

On August 11, 2022 Moscow requested the UN SC meeting on the ZNPP attack.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report 123. Zelensky blocks Russians travelling to the West. What about the basic principle of reciprocity in arranging visas?

August 14, 2022

On August 8, in an interview with a Washington Post journalist, President of Ukraine V. Zelensky revealed a way to "stop Russia from further annexing the territory of a neighboring country."

In his opinion, Kyiv's Western partners should close their borders to all Russian citizens. In addition, he proposed to return all Russians who had previously gone abroad to their homeland. Zelensky is sure that “being deprived of the opportunity to relax in the resorts of the countries of the collective West, the Russians will immediately understand that their leader is bad and, left without cocktails on warm beaches, they will immediately overthrow Putin. Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada R. Stefanchuk on the website of the Parliament of Ukraine expressed admiration for Zelensky's proposal and, in obscene form, invited all Russians to return to the USSR. Offering to punish people only on the basis of having a Russian passport or knowing Russian language or professing Orthodox Christianity, the Kyiv regime has fully revealed its true ultra-nazi face, demonstrating the falsity of earlier statements that they were supposedly “fighting not with the people, but with the invading army.”

 Following such logic, the world community should have resisted to three Ukrainian armed aggressions against Donbass that last since 2014 till nowadays.

Representatives of the Russian opposition were the first to become active against the agenda announced by Kyiv, many of whom, hiding from responsibility for the criminal offenses committed, had already left the country and settled abroad. If earlier they took a position of unconditional support for Ukraine, now, in the hope of avoiding a fair trial, they condemned the Kyiv regime, finally discovering there are parallels with fascism in its decisions. In a similar vein, journalist A. Nevzorov, businessman E. Chichvarkin, blogger M. Katz, former politician L. Volkov, lawyer M. Feigin, writer D. Bykov, public figure M. Khodarkovsky and others spoke in a similar vein.

In turn, the heads of some European states launched a kind of campaign to translate the calls of the Ukrainian leader into reality. The British news agency The Guardian quotes the Minister of Estonia K.Kallas, who wrote on Twitter that “visiting Europe is a privilege, not a right” and proposed to deprive the citizens of the Russian Federation of this “prerogative”. Finnish Prime Minister S. Marin, in an interview with a journalist from the public television channel YLE, supported her Estonian counterpart, referring to the special military operation as the main reason for depriving Russians of the right to "live a normal life."

German Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Andrea Sasse said that from August 10, the proposal to ban the issuance of visas not only to tourists from Russia, but also to journalists, activists, students, and relatives of EU citizens is on the agenda. Swedish Minister for Integration A. Igeman announced the agenda on tightening the visa regime with Russia. The Czech Republic also supported the ban on issuing visas to Russians, as stated by the head of the diplomatic department, Jan Lipavsky.

This process has already gone beyond allegations. Finland last week unveiled a plan to limit tourist visas for Russians, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland sharply tightened visa rules. The French news agency AFP reports that under the pretext of a ban on the entry of Russian citizens to military installations, Russian visitors are denied access to tourist attractions, in particular, the medieval Château de Vincennes on the outskirts of Paris.

At the end of August, the foreign ministers of the EU countries are planning an informal meeting, during which they intend to discuss the issues of visa bans for Russians at the pan-European level. The news that the proposal to ban Schengen visas for Russian citizens was submitted for discussion by the European Union on August 11 was announced by the representative of the German Cabinet of Ministers Sch.Hebestrait on the website SchengenVisaInfo.com.

It should be noted that the opinions of European leaders on banning visas are still divided.

German Chancellor G. Scholz said that "sanctions should be directed against Putin and supporters of the war in Ukraine, and not against innocent citizens." Representative of the European Commission for Home Affairs A. Hipper in response to the recent initiative of Estonia, Latvia and Finland to ban all Russians from entering the territory of the bloc removed responsibility from pan-European institutions, noting the exclusivity of the right of each EU country “to make decisions on visa applications and, ultimately, deny Russian citizens.” The Guardian notes that some countries with traditionally close ties to Russia, such as Hungary, are likely to be strongly opposed to the ban.

The Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation rightly compared Zelensky’s statement about “calling the entire population of Russia to account” with the ideas that Hitler was trying to implement. L. Slutsky, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, believes that "the proposals to close the entry of Russians are absolutely devoid of logic and are designed in the spirit of the reincarnation of the ideology of national segregation." Press Secretary of the President of Russia D. Peskov noted the futility of Zelensky's attempts to isolate the Russians and the Russian Federation.

The nature of Kyiv's power is no longer in doubt. Predictable and support for any Russophobic undertakings by the political leadership pursuing private geopolitical interests, Poland and the Baltic countries. However, if the adoption of solutions bordering on Nazism becomes possible at the international level, it is worth considering how in modern realities, European values ​​have been catastrophically distorted.

Not even a hundred years have passed since the defeat of Nazi Germany and worldwide condemnation of fascism. Apparently, the roots of the criminally dangerous ideology were not completely eradicated at that time. Today, the global clouding of consciousness has created a fertile ground in which the shoots of Nazism, like a weed, make their way to the surface and, step by step, gain the upper hand over the noble cultures.

There are two potential caveats:


First: Those people who have served or are still serving as diplomats and consular officers know very well that visa processing between specific countries is arranged on the basis of reciprocity.

Second: The “Iron Curtain” once existed. Was it rational? No. That is why it has been lifted off. So, why it is intentionally created again? With what aim?


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Report 129. Kiev used CWA against Russian troops

August 20, 2022

1. Third type of Ukrainian terrorism – nowadays a “biological terrorism”

Russian soldiers in Ukraine hospitalized with severe biological poisoning by AFU. Traces of the Botulinum toxin Type B have been discovered in the troops, Russian Defense Ministry says on August 20, 2022.

Russian soldiers in Ukraine hospitalized with severe chemical poisoning – MoscowBotulinum toxin as combat warfare agent or CWA, often called the “miracle poison,” is one of the most toxic biological substances known to science. Produced by the Clostridium botulinum bacteria, it blocks the release of the acetylcholine neurotransmitter, causing muscle paralysis.

Botulinum toxin poses a major threat as a bioweapon due its ease of production and distribution, and the high fatality rate resulting from poisoning. Recovery is only possible after a lengthy period of intensive care.

 


It is an “organic poison of artificial origin.” It has been discovered in samples taken from the servicemen, the Russian MoD said, accusing Kiev of conducting earlier “chemical terrorism, and in later case “biological terrorism.”


The Russian troops were “hospitalized with signs of severe poisoning” after being stationed near the village of Vasilyevka in Zaporozhye Region on July 31, the statement said. “The Zelensky regime has authorized terrorist attacks with the use of toxic substances against Russian personnel and civilians” following a string of military defeats in Donbass and other areas, the ministry noted.


So, besides “nuclear terrorism” launched by Kiev against Ukrainian NPPs, and “anti-personnel mines terrorism” used by Kiev against civilians in Donbass, and “chemical terrorism” in the form of attacking chemical plants there appeared one more type of terrorism pursued by Ukrainian leaders – a “biological terrorism” by using Botulinum toxin Type B


Botulinum toxin is one of the most powerful poisons of organic origin, it is produced by Clostridium bacteria, which are anaerobic, that is, they live in the absence of oxygen, military expert Igor Nikulin, a former member of the UN Commission on Biological Weapons, told RBC or Rosbisnessconsulting mass media. “Producing such a poison is a difficult task even in modern laboratories, so it can only be produced in US military biological laboratories of the third and fourth levels of biosafety,” the expert believes.

No, doubt the USA, NATO, the EU, and the UNO will turn a blind eye to such inhuman acts prohibited by the international BW Convention.

 

2. Kiev still uses Ukrainian civilians as a human shield (examples recorded since August 15 till 20, 2022)

Russian MoD continues to record numerous facts of criminal actions by Kiev regime against civilians, as well as the use of civilian infrastructure for military purposes by Ukrainian armed formations. Here is the list of Ukrainian action in various areas recorded between August 15-20, 2022:

a) in Donetsk People's Republic:

- in Artemovsk, militants of nationalist battalions are stationed in the dormitory of the Agrarian College (Pobedy Street), roadblocks and firing points are deployed in immediate vicinity, and approaches to the building are mined, but the local population is deliberately not warned about this;

- in Artemovsk, militants of nationalist battalions have equipped a stronghold and ammunition depot in kindergarten No 58 (Gorbatov Street) and placed artillery and mortars in adjacent territory, without evacuating civilians from nearby houses and use them as a human shield;

- in Artemovsk, AFU units are stationed on the territory of the tuberculosis hospital (Mariupolskaya Street), roadblocks and firing sites are deployed, and the approaches to the building are mined, but the local population is deliberately not warned about this;

- in Artemovsk, militants of nationalist battalions have equipped a stronghold and ammunition depot in school No 7 (Kuznechnaya Street), and placed artillery and MLRS in the surrounding area, without evacuating civilians from nearby houses;

- in Avdeyevka, AFU units are stationed in kindergarten No. 10 (Kommunalnaya Street), roadblocks are equipped along the perimeter, and the approaches to the institution are mined, but the local population is deliberately not warned about this;

- in Slavyansk, Lokomotiv sports complex (Vokzalna Street) houses AFU soldiers and artillery and MLRS in the surrounding area;

- in Slavyansk, Ukrainian armed formations have deployed armoured vehicles and MLRS in kindergarten No 20 (Torskaya Street), from which they are systematically shelling nearby settlements;

- in Slavyansk, Ukrainian armed formations have deployed armoured vehicles, artillery pieces and MLRS in School No. 8 (Torskaya Street), from which they systematically shell nearby populated areas, provoking retaliatory fire from units of the Russian Armed Forces and People's Militia of Donetsk People's Republic. Civilians are not allowed to leave their homes, and the nationalists are effectively using them as human shields.

- in Prelesnoye, AFU have equipped a stronghold and ammunition depot on the territory of the museum complex (Museum of Folk Architecture, Life and Children's Art) and placed armoured vehicles on the adjoining territory.

- in Soledar, AFU units have equipped a stronghold, barracks and ammunition depots in kindergarten No 59 (Preobrazhenskaya Street) and deployed roadblocks and firing points. Under the pretext of alleged security, the militants have forbidden local residents to leave their homes, and all their attempts to evacuate to safe areas on their own are being severely curtailed;

- in Aleksandrovka, Ukrainian armed formations are concentrated in the hospital building (Dzerzhinskogo Street), armoured vehicles are deployed in the surrounding area, and residents of nearby houses have not been evacuated;

- in Kramatorsk, AFU units have equipped barracks and weapons depots in the city psychiatric hospital (Ye. Bilokur Street), and artillery and MLRS have been deployed on the territory of the institution, from which they systematically shell nearby settlements;

- In Novye Sanzhary, Poltava Region, Azov battalion fighters are stationed in a medical centre (Kurortnaya Street), an ammunition depot is equipped, while medical staff and patients have been cynically kicked out of the medical facility by nationalists.In addition, it is known that the bridge across the Psel river and the approaches to it, as well as the sides of the adjacent road, have been mined by AFU units near Staroye Selo, Sumy Region, while the local population has not been deliberately warned about this. The militants plan to blow up the bridge and accuse the Russian Armed Forces of allegedly indiscriminate strikes against transport infrastructure in a well-established scenario with extensive coverage in the Ukrainian and Western media.

- in Nikolayevka, there are AFU soldiers stationed at Kindergarten No. 1 (Vitsedmirala Sinetskyi Street) and artillery positions are equipped near pre-school;

- in Novoukrainka, Ukrainian nationalists have equipped strongholds and artillery positions in private households, from which they systematically shell positions of the Russian Armed Forces, provoking them to return fire, while the militants keep local residents in their homes, effectively using them as human shield.

- in Kurakhovka nationalists have equipped firing positions on the territory of school No. 23 (Kalinina Street) and placed heavy equipment, artillery and MLRS guns, the approaches to the institution are mined, but the local population is deliberately not warned about this;

- in Toretsk, AFU have equipped strongholds and ammunition depots in the premises of the music school and the Palace of Culture (Druzhba Street) and have equipped artillery and MLRS positions in the adjacent territory, from which they systematically shell nearby settlements, while civilians are not allowed to leave their homes and the nationalists actually use them as human shields.

b) in other regions:

- in Dnepr, AFU deployed heavy armoured vehicles and ammunition depots on private premises (Torgovaya Street) without evacuating civilians from the area;

- in Nikolaev, nationalists have equipped barracks and stronghold in the building of an industrial vocational school (Vingranovskyi Street);

- in Kharkov, the University dormitory houses (Otakar Yarosh Street) AFU units created an ammunition depot and a large number of armoured vehicles in the surrounding area.


Such actions by criminal Ukrainian authorities demonstrate complete indifference to the fate of their own citizens and absolute disregard for all norms of morality and the principles of international humanitarian law.


3. Situation on the battlefields

According to reports release by the DPR authorities on August 20, 2022 one man born in 1955 was injured by Ukrainian anti-personnel mine PFM-1 “Petal”. dispersed by Ukrainian AFU in civilian residential area in Donbass.  

Kiev’s regime has scattered more than 19,000 such mines prohibited by the Ottawa Convention Ukraine has signed and ratified it.

As of 10:00AM on August 20, 46 cases of wounding civilians have already been registered in the DPR, including 2 children, on mines PFM One of the injured died in the hospital.CIA veteran: After Ukraine's surrender, Russians will build a world without the US

Each day and night AFU shell many residential areas in Donbass by using lethal weapons delivered from the USA, the UK, British, Poland, Canada, Germany and other NATO countries.

According to the DPR, over the past 24 hours, on August 19, in the city of Donetsk, 2 people died from shelling – a man and a woman born in 1949 and 1951 – residents of the Kirovsky District, the village of Lozovoe.

In the Kherson region, local residents were detained, who helped the Armed Forces of Ukraine direct HIMARS missiles at the railway station and the village of Brilevka. The shelling killed seven people, including children.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the Special Military Operation in Ukraine, protecting civilians in Donbass and in other parts in Ukraine from the third brutal Ukrainian aggression.

High-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces have hit combat positions of Kraken nationalist formation and a unit of foreign mercenaries near Andreevka, Kharkov Region, killing over 100 militants, including up to 20 U.S. mercenaries.

Russian Aerospace Forces operational-tactical aviation near Velikomikhailovka in Dnepropetrovsk Region have almost completely destroyed a battalion of 110th Territorial Defence Brigade of AFU, with losses of at least 200 nationalists killed and over 150 wounded.

As a result of strikes on combat positions of a tank battalion of 28th Mechanized Brigade near Kiselevka, Nikolaev Region, and 212th Rifle Battalion of AFU near Apostolovo, Dnepropetrovsk Region, the enemy has suffered over 200 casualties.

High-precision ground-based weapons have destroyed up to 130 fighters and 8 units of special vehicles in the area of AFU's manpower and military equipment of 27th Battalion of 127th Territorial Defence Brigade concentration in northern Kharkov.

High-precision air-based missiles have destroyed over 200 personnel, two tanks and 7 special vehicles of 3rd and 12th battalions of 25th Airborne Brigade of AFU near Zvanovka and Paraskovievka in Donetsk People's Republic.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery strikes continue against military facilities in Ukraine.

7 command posts of AFU, including of 53rd Mechanized Brigade near Vodyanoye, 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade in Soledar district in Donetsk People's Republic, as well as 187 areas of manpower and military equipment have been hit.

One self-propelled Buk-M1 surface-to-air missile launcher near Shevchenko, 4 ammunition depots near Galitsynovka, Konstantinovka, Shabelkovka in Donetsk People's Republic and Belaya Krinitsa in Kherson Region, 3 fuel depots near Slobozhanskaya in Kharkov Region, Konstantinovka and Galitsinovka in Donetsk People's Republic, and one U.S.-made ANTPQ-36 counter-battery fire radar near Kramatorsk.

Russian air defence means have destroyed 6 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Vrubovka in Lugansk People's Republic, Novomikhailovka, Staromlynovka in Donetsk People's Republic, Bogoroditskoye in Nikolaev Region, Novozlatopol' in Zaporozhye Region and Fedorovka in Kharkov Region.

In addition, 13 rockets of Olkha multiple-launch rocket system have been shot down in the air near Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station in Kherson Region and Militopol' in Zaporozhye Region.

In total, 267 Ukrainian airplanes and 148 helicopters, 1,776 unmanned aerial vehicles, 367 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,354 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 809 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,320 field artillery and mortars, as well as 4,969 special military vehicles were destroyed during the SMO.

4. Implementation of the Istanbul food delivery deal

As part of the implementation of this agreement reach on July 22, 2022  since August 1, 2022 a total of 25 vessels have left with 625,050 tonnes of food exported abroad, Including: 487,463 tonnes of maize, 50,301 tonnes of flour, 11,000 tonnes of soya, 13,250 tonnes of sunflower oil, 41,622 tonnes of wheat, 2,914 tonnes of sunflower and 18,500 tonnes of mixed fodder.

On August 18, 2022, dry cargo ship Ay Maria (Belize, cargo - maize) left Chernomorsk port.

Talking over telephone with President of the French Republic Emmanuel Macron on August 19, 2022, Vladimir Putin,  President of Russia, informed the French leader about the progress of the package deal signed on July 22 in Istanbul to facilitate the export of Ukrainian grain from Black Sea ports and the export of Russian food and fertilizers to world markets.

Russian head of state pointed out the remaining obstacles to the above Russian exports, also covered by that accord, adding that the situation is doing little to resolve global food security problems.

5. Navigation in the Black Sea area

At the same time 52 foreign vessels from 14 countries remain blocked by Ukraine at six ports, including Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhny.

There also remains a danger to navigation and damage to port infrastructure from drifting Ukrainian mines off anchor along the coast of the Black Sea states.

The Russian Armed Forces have created conditions for the operation of two maritime humanitarian corridors, which are safe lanes for ships:

a) in the Black Sea (round-the-clock) - to leave of Nikolaev, Odessa, Ochakov, Kherson, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny ports in south-western direction from Ukraine's territorial sea, 307 nautical miles long and 3 miles wide;

b) in the Sea of Azov, to leave Mariupol port 115 miles long and 2 miles wide towards the Black Sea.

6. Russia is helping Donbass to reconstruct houses and other social facilities

The Military Construction Complex of the Russian Defence Ministry continues to build and reconstruct vital facilities as part of the measures to restore the infrastructure of the people's republics of Donbass:

a) in Donetsk People's Republic:

- in Mariupol: the first phase of residential district (12 residential buildings with 1,011 flats, completion date in September-November 2022) and an administrative and rescue centre for EMERCOM (scheduled for completion in December 2022);

- 60-bed multi-purpose medical centre (completion date in September 2022);

- pathologoanatomic building with medical-forensic unit (completion date in October 2022);

- Saur-Mogila memorial complex (completion date in September 2022);

- in Volnovakha - a water pipeline over 20 km long (completion date in October 2022, 100% construction readiness, pontoon station pumps are being installed and connected);

b) in Lugansk People's Republic

- 200-bed multi-purpose medical centre in Lugansk (completion date in November 2022);

- in Rovenki water pipeline over 40 km long (completion date in October 2022).

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Report 265. Warsaw demanded US TNW

 

 June 30, 2023

1. Poland wants US nuclear weapons – PM

Warsaw is asking NATO to include it into the bloc’s Nuclear Sharing Program, also known as nuclear sharing agreements program, Polish Prime Minister Mateus Morawiecki told journalists in Brussels this week. The program allows the deployment of US nuclear bombs on the territory of other NATO non-nuclear nations in violation of the NPT Article 1 and II.

Morawiecki called Poland’s appeal a response to Moscow’s decision to station its tactical nuclear arms in neighboring Belarus. “Due to the fact that Russia intends to deploy tactical nuclear weapons [TNW] in Belarus, we are… appealing to … NATO to [allow us] take part in the Nuclear Sharing Program,” the PM said. It is not the first attempt made by Polish high-ranking officials to deploy the US TNW in Poland.

The first recorded statements from Warsaw were made in 2015, and there are signs that the US TNW have already arrived to Poland.

The final decision on the issue would rest with Washington, Morawiecki said, adding that Warsaw declared its intention to “act quickly in this regard.” Poland “does not want to sit idly,” he said.


Launched in 2009, the NATO Nuclear Sharing Program has seen as many as nearly 400 US B-61 nuclear bombs have been deployed to various locations around Europe, including in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and in the Asian part of Turkey.


Some nations then seemingly regretted allowing the US nuclear weapons deployment to their territory. Back in 2010, German lawmakers made a decision on the withdrawal of America’s nuclear weapons from Germany but the arms have still been in place ever since. In April 2023, Sevim Dagdelen, the deputy head of the Left party’s faction in the Bundestag, demanded a US troops withdrawal from Germany, alongside America’s nuclear weapons, again.

A new US A-bomb that is being delivered to Europe named B 61-12 has yield between 0.3 kiloton to 50 kiloton.


If Polish demands for TNW are met, Europe will become

‘a huge US nuclear powder keg’.


2. Ukraine issued ultimatum to NATO

President Zelensky will not attend the bloc’s summit unless it shows “courage” on Ukrainian accession process, a top Kiev official has said.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky will only attend NATO’s summit in July if the bloc begins to seriously consider Kiev’s request for membership, a deputy head of the country’s presidential office said on June 29. “The president will not travel... to the summit [on July 11-12] if the leaders will tend to or will show a deficit of courage,” Igor Zhovka told Reuters, adding that Ukraine only wants the bloc “to start the procedure.”

Ukraine formally applied to join NATO last autumn, after four of its former territories overwhelmingly voted to join Russia in public referendums, which were not recognized by Kiev or its allies. While NATO maintains its “open door” policy on Ukraine’s membership, it has not officially granted the request.

Earlier this week, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said serious discussions on the accession process could start on the condition that Kiev “prevails as a sovereign and independent nation in Europe,” and pledged that the bloc would “address Ukraine’s membership aspirations” only after the Vilnius summit. Some NATO officials add: and after the current war is over completely.

3. Ukraine holding back its Western tanks – WSJ

Kiev is holding back its Western-made tanks and avoiding major attacks on Russian positions after its initial failure to achieve significant battlefield successes during this month’s counteroffensive, the Wall Street Journal has reported. Ukrainian troops “haven’t yet approached” the defenses constructed by Russia, according to the report released on July 30. After encountering stiff resistance in prior weeks, “Ukrainian commanders have largely held off sending large infantry formations and Western tanks to assault Russian positions.”

The WSJ described the pause as giving the Ukrainians time to map Russian minefields and “soften” the defenses with long-range attacks.

The team’s commander, a sergeant named Grigory Volkov, said his side was “kind of shocked” by the scale of Russian defenses, which have multiple layers and were well prepared to fend off storming forces. Now the Ukrainians are moving slowly and trying to conserve their limited supplies of ammunition.


The Russian military reported on June 27 that since June 4, 2023 when AFU began its unprepared offensive it had destroyed 259 Ukrainian tanks, including 13 produced in Western nations, and 780 armored vehicles


In the area of the city of Orekhov, which the adversary considers its principal attack direction, over the past seven days alone the enemy lost 280 units of military hardware, including 41 tanks and 102 armored vehicles.

Russia has seven very effective types of anti-tank weapons produced recently.

4. Why Prigozhin has staged a mutiny?

Businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, associated with the "Wagner" PMC, refused to comply with the decision of the Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) to reassign the fighters involved in the Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine, said the head of the Duma Defense Committee Andrei Kartapolov."A few days before the attempted mutiny, the Defense Ministry announced that all formations that perform combat tasks must sign a contract with the MoD <...>. And everyone began to implement this decision, absolutely the right decision. Everyone, except Mr. Prigozhin," said the deputy.

According to him, then Prigozhin was told that if he refused to sign the agreement with the Russian MoD on the direct subordination to it, PMC employees would not be able to participate in the SMO, and the company itself would lose Government funding.

As to Government funding, Prigozhin used a special privilege to spend a substantial amount of money offered to him and the PMC members. Addressing military personnel of the Russian MoD on June 27, Vladimir Putin announced that all of the funding the Wagner Group received came from the state budget, namely from the Defence Ministry. Between May 2022 and May 2023 alone, the Wagner PMC received more than 86 billion Rubles [about 1 billion Euros] from the state to pay military salaries and bonuses, including 70,384 billion Rubles for payroll and 15,877 billion Rubles for paying out bonuses.

President continued: “But while the state covered all of the Wagner Group’s funding needs, the company’s owner, Concord, earned, 80 billion Rubles through Voentorg [military shopping system] as the Army’s food and canteen provider. The state covered all its funding needs, while part of the group – I mean Concord [Company] – made 80 billion rubles, all at the same time. I do hope that no one stole anything in the process or, at least, did not steal a lot. It goes without saying that we will look into all of this.”


At the same time the President outlined that the Russian Federation has always treated Wagner Group fighters and commanders “with a lot of respect because they did demonstrate courage and heroism. Soldiers and officers from the Russian Army, as well as volunteers operated in combat with the same dedication, heroism and self-sacrifice. But those who served and worked for this company, Wagner, were respected in Russia.”


5. Putin’s popularity in Russia is still very high

The Russian public’s level of confidence in President Vladimir Putin is 78.6% on June 19-25, 2023 according to a poll released by the All-Russia Public Opinion Research Center on June 30 (a 0.3 percentage point drop).

"When asked if they trusted Putin, 78.6% of the poll’s participants said ‘yes’ (). Meanwhile, the share of people who approve of the way the president is handling his job fell by 1.3 percentage points to 74.8%," the pollster said.

A total of 50.1% of those polled said they approved of the Russian Government’s work (a 0.6 percentage point drop) and 51.7% approved of Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s activity (a 1.6 percentage point decline). As many as 60.9% of respondents said they trusted PM Mishustin (a 0.9 percentage point fall).

As for the leaders of the parliamentary parties, 31.3% of those surveyed trust leader of the Russian Communist Party Gennady Zyuganov (a 4.4 percentage point decline), 31.6% trust leader of the A Just Russia - For Truth party Sergey Mironov (a 1 percentage point drop), 16.4% of the poll’s participants trust leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) Leonid Slutsky (a 2 percentage point fall) and 7.6% said they trusted Chairman of the New People party Alexey Nechayev (a 1.3 percentage point drop).

The level of popular support for the United Russia party stood at 37.9% (a 1.4 percentage point drop). The level increased by 0.4% percentage points to 10.4% for the Russian Communist Party and by 0.6 percentage points to 9.2% for the Russian Liberal Democratic Party party. The A Just Russia - For Truth party saw a 0.2 percentage point decline to 5.6%, while popular support for the New People party dropped by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%.

The poll involved 1,600 adult respondents.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Report 36. Russian MOD and UN: successful talks on humanitarian issues

April 5th, 2022

1. Russian MoD and the UNO established fruitful contacts

On April 4th, 2022, a meeting was held in Moscow between the Deputy Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation, Colonel-General Alexander Fomin, and the UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths, during which the situation in Ukraine was discussed.

The Deputy Minister of Defence noted the successful joint work with representatives of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs accredited to the Russian Defence Ministry in Moscow. The Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine, established in the Russian Defence Ministry, regularly transmits documents with objective information on the humanitarian situation in Ukraine to UN staff.

The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation informed Martin Griffiths about the increase in humanitarian assistance to the population of Ukraine in the areas controlled by the Russian Armed Forces, as well as in the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics.

The Russian side emphasized that the key factor for the Russian Defence Ministry in the joint delivery of humanitarian aid to the civilian population of Ukraine with the UN is to ensure the safety of the Organization's employees.

Kiev uncontrollably distributed weapons to the population, which led to an increase in banditry and looting. Moreover, the number of incidents involving the use of weapons is steadily increasing, which can lead to the death of UN staff.

It was also noted that the Ukrainian authorities have launched an information campaign to discredit Russian servicemen.

For this purpose, provocations are used and staged incidents are created. A vivid example is the accusation of the Russian Armed Forces of an airstrike on a maternity hospital in Mariupol. On the eve it became known that the main character of the reports in the media denies the version of the air raid on the maternity hospital from the Russian side. According to her, nationalists from Azov units used several women in labor to film a report in a hospital destroyed, allegedly by Russia, according to a pre-prepared scenario. False information was spread by the Western media.

The Russian Ministry of Defence has shown concrete evidence of genocide and brutality of the Ukrainian leadership and paramilitary units towards their own population.

The Deputy Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation said that the humanitarian situation in Ukraine is deteriorating. First of all, this is due to the actions of the Ukrainian authorities and nationalist battalions that continue to block citizens in cities preventing them to escape.

The UN Deputy Secretary-General has been informed about the situation that has developed in connection with Kiev's sabotage of the regime of open humanitarian corridors. It is indicated that the Russian side has been creating every day since March 4 all conditions to ensure the safety of humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians and foreign citizens in the eastern and western directions. However, the convoys of refugees come under intense fire from Armed Forces of Ukraine or AFU and national battalions, including mortars and large-caliber arms fire. At the same time, despite this opposition, more than 123 thousand people were saved only through the humanitarian corridor from Mariupol to the east without the participation of the Ukrainian side.

On April 4, from 06:00AM, once again Russia reopened a humanitarian corridor to rescue foreign citizens and civilians from Mariupol. At the same time, the Russian side is ready to ensure the entry of ships into the port of Berdyansk for the evacuation of foreign citizens.

67 foreign vessels continue to be blocked in Ukrainian ports. Every day from 08:00 to 19:00 (Moscow time), the Russian Armed Forces open the maritime humanitarian corridor, which is a safe lane in the south-west direction. However, the threats of shelling and the high mine danger created by the AFU do not allow ships to safely go to the open sea.

For his part, M. Griffiths noted the importance of such contacts in order to solve complex humanitarian issues in crisis regions of the world. An understanding has been reached on the continuation of regular interaction.

The situation in Ukraine dated evening April 1st, 2022

2. Russia denies its involvement in Bucha “killings”

Russia strongly denied accusations of Kiev of allegedly killing civilians in Bucha, Kiev Region. All the photos and videos published by the Kiev regime allegedly testifying to some "crimes" committed by Russian servicemen in Bucha, Kiev region are just another provocation.

During the time that the town has been under the control of the Russian armed forces, not a single local resident has suffered from any violent action. Russian servicemen have delivered and distributed 452 tonnes of humanitarian aid to civilians in Kiev Region. For as long as the town was under the control of the Russian armed forces and even then, up to now, locals in Bucha were moving freely around the town and using cellular phones. The exits from Bucha were not blocked. All local residents were free to leave the town in northern direction, including to the Republic of Belarus. At the same time, the southern outskirts of the city, including residential areas, were shelled round the clock by Ukrainian troops with large-calibre artillery, tanks and MRLSs.

Russia emphasized that all Russian units withdrew completely from Bucha as early as March 30, the next day after the Russia-Ukraine talks held in Turkey.

Moreover, on March 31st, the mayor of Bucha, Anatoliy Fedoruk, confirmed in a video message that there were no Russian servicemen in the town, and he did not even mention any locals shot in the streets.

It is not surprising, therefore, that all the so-called "evidence of crimes" in Bucha   emerged only on the fourth day, when the Security Service of Ukraine and representatives of Ukrainian media arrived in the town. It is of particular worry that all the bodies of the people whose images have been published by the Kiev regime are not stiffened after at least four days, have no typical blood stains, and the wounds contain unconsumed blood.

All this confirms conclusively that the photos and video footage from Bucha are another production by the Kiev regime for the Western media, as was the case in Mariupol with the maternity hospital, as well as in other cities.

Highly likely that the “story of Bucha” was invented by Kiev to divert attention from torture of Russian POW by the AFU, and to disrupt the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks. Another reason – is underscore the need to continue attacks versus Donbass.

Russia believes that the sequence of objective events that took place after Russian troops left Bucha and described by Kiev four days later runs counter to any rational logic. It is very strange that the UK who currently acts as a chair at the UN Security Council twice denied to put this issue on the agenda as it has been demanded by Moscow. It is a gross violation of procedural matters existing at the UN SC. Russia circulated a letter at the UN SC criticizing London for such self-produced act and arranged a special press-conference on this story.

A “victim” in Bucha

According to confirmed information, on the evening of April 4, in the village of Moshun, 23 kilometers north-west of Kiev, servicemen of the 72 Ukrainian main center for psychological operations carried out another staged filming of civilians allegedly killed by the violent actions of the Russian Armed Forces for subsequent distribution through the Western media. Similar events have been organized by the Ukrainian special services in Sumy, Konotop and other cities.

72nd Psychological Operations Center of the AFU plans to conduct several other staged performances in Ukrainian cities.

4. Chemical attack by Ukraine

The Ukrainian armed forces have blown up a tank purportedly containing hydrochloric acid at the "Zarya" chemical plant in the city of Rubezhnoye in the Lugansk region, a lieutenant colonel of the Lugansk People's Republic (LPR) forces has stated.

According to the LPR servicemen, the detonation was planned to harm specific regions recently recaptured by the troops of the people's republic.

"The Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing to surrender Rubezhnoye and started blowing up [cisterns with] chemicals. Today, one tank, presumably containing hydrochloric acid, was blown up in the workshop number one of the Zarya plant. The detonation was scheduled taking into account the wind direction. The wind is currently blowing in the direction of Kudryashovka – a settlement that we have just liberated", LPR Lieutenant Colonel Andrey Marochko said.

5. Situation on the battlefields

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

On the evening of April 4, high-precision, long-range sea-based weapons near Ochakov destroyed a training centre for Ukrainian special operations forces used, among other things, to house foreign mercenaries.

High-precision air-based missiles have destroyed 4 fuel depots for supplying groups of Ukrainian troops near Kremenets, Cherkasy, Zaporozhye and Novomoskovsk.

During the night, operational-tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit 134 military assets in Ukraine. Among them: 8 command posts and communication hubs, 1 radar for the S-300 missile system, 1 launcher of Tochka-U missile system, 6 ammunition depots and 2 fuel depots, as well as 85 strong points and areas of Ukrainian military equipment concentration.

Russian Air Defence means shot down 4 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the air near Chernobaevka, Industrialnaya, Gurty and Nizhnyaya Krynka.

In total, from February 24th, 125 Ukrainian aircraft and 91 helicopters, 398 unmanned aerial vehicles, 226 anti-aircraft missile systems, 1,969 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 214 multiple launch rocket systems, 852 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,873 special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.


A straightforward question

The Czech Republic is going to send to Kiev regime 40 Soviet-made T-72 tanks and around 50 ACVs. It has been announced in the Parliament.

A question: Does Prague really believe that in so doing it will never stop Ukrainian aggression vs Donbass? And a military confrontation in Europe? Does Prague think that Zelensky is a proper person to be supported by huge amount of weapons?


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report 53. Lavrov: Ukraine should have neutral, nuclear-free, non-aligned and demilitarized status as well as guarantees for its security

 

April 30th, 2022

1. Lavrov’s explanation of the current situation in Ukraine and the world

Washington’s concept of a US-centric world is a neocolonialist project based on racism and American exceptionalism, Moscow believes; the conflict between Moscow and Kiev, as well as the long-running Ukraine crisis, is a direct result of the West’s push to create a unipolar world, one which involved NATO’s unabated eastward expansion, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told China’s Xinhua News Agency in an interview published on April 30,2022.

“The U.S. and NATO have always seen Ukraine as an instrument of containing Russia,” the minister said, adding that the reasons that eventually prompted Moscow to launch its military operation in Ukraine stem from a years-long Western policy that included stirring up anti-Russian sentiment among Ukrainians and forcing them to make a “false choice” between the West and Russia.

Protecting citizens of Donbass from three Ukrainians aggressions from 2014 that led to 14,000 killed and 34,000 injured, banning the use of Russian language in that region were the second and the third Russian reasons to stop the Ukrainian policy of genocide sanctioned by Kiev rulers.

It was the West that first instigated and then supported an anti-constitutional coup d’état in Kiev in 2014” which gave rise to an internal Ukrainian conflict the USA and its allies never tried to resolve, Lavrov said, as he accused Washington and its allies of “fostering” Kiev’s “aggressive anti-Russian course” and “pushing nationalists towards a military solution” of the standoff in the Donbass.

Washington and Brussels brushed off Russia’s proposals for security guarantees in Europe in December 2021, the minister said, adding that Moscow was left with no choice but to launch its military operation to protect the people of the Donbass, following a request from the leaders of the two republics Russia had recognized.

Russia is interested in a “peaceful, free, neutral, prosperous and friendly Ukraine,” the minister has explained, adding that Moscow wishes to restore “centuries-long cultural, economic and family ties between Russians and Ukrainians.”

According to Lavrov, the document debated at the bilateral talks should include provisions on Ukraine’s “neutral, nuclear-free, non-aligned and demilitarized status” as well as guarantees on Ukraine’s security. However, the foreign minister claimed the Western policy of “incitement” is impeding the peace process. “They [the USA and its allies] de facto encourage Kiev to fight [Russia] to the last man by pumping [Ukraine] full of arms and sending their mercenaries” to its territory, he said.

If the USA and NATO were indeed interested in resolving the crisis in Ukraine, they would have understood that the Ukrainian people don’t need Stingers or Javelins so much as humanitarian assistance, the minister noted.

What is happening right now is not a “new Cold War” but continued attempts by Washington and its allies to impose a “US-centric model of the world” on other nations, Lavrov said. The USA and its allies seek to erode the UN-based world order and replace it with their own “rules-based order.” Ukraine has not been the only place in the world where the USA and its allies sought to pursue this goal, the minister noted, citing the NATO bombings of Yugoslavia in 1999, the 2003 Iraq invasion, and the Syrian crisis as examples of this “destructive policy.”

2. Humanitarian situation

The Russian Federation's Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response, in co-operation with the authorized federal executive authorities, continues to carefully record the continuing egregious facts of the inhumane treatment of civilians by Kiev authorities: The Ukrainian armed formations, using civilians as human shield, continue to use civilian infrastructure to build strongholds and deploy heavy weaponry:

1) In Svнatogorsk, Donetsk People's Republic, militants of nationalist battalions have deployed artillery mounts and MLRS on the territory of the monastery of the Holy Dormition Svyatogorsk Lavra. More than 100 civilians (clergy, novices, refugees) are in the monastery;

2) in Kramatorsk, Donetsk People's Republic, neo-Nazis have set up firing points in apartment buildings on Heroes of Ukraine and Korolev streets on the upper floors and residents are forcibly detained in their flats.

Furthermore, according to reliable information, the Kiev regime has prepared in advance another sophisticated provocation to discredit the Russian Armed Forces before the international community. An artillery battery (consisting of three D-30 howitzers) has been deployed near the Piskunovka water intake in the Donetsk People's Republic by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to provoke retaliatory fire from the Russian Armed Forces at the water intake, whose destruction would leave 27 settlements with a total population of over 15,000 without water supply. The Kiev authorities plan to use this cynical provocation in the near future to accuse Russian servicemen of alleged atrocities against civilians, followed by extensive coverage in the Ukrainian and Western media.

Such actions by Kiev once again demonstrate an inhuman attitude towards the fate of its own citizens and show a complete disregard for all norms of morality and international humanitarian law.

Despite all the difficulties and obstacles imposed by the Ukrainian side, over the past day, without the participation of Kiev, 21,972 people were evacuated from dangerous areas, 2,693 of them children. In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 1,043,843 people have already been evacuated, of which 190,329 are children. The state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 135,664 personal vehicles including 2,083 per day.

More than 9,500 temporary accommodation centres continue to operate in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and are fully equipped with recreational facilities and hot meals. The refugees are treated individually and provided with qualified medical and psychological assistance. Families are promptly provided with housing, citizens are employed, and children are provided with places in schools and kindergartens.

Ukrainian citizens living in the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics and to areas controlled by the Russian Armed Forces in the Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, Kharkov and Kherson regions are wishing to be evacuated to the Russian Federation; the database contains 2,753,884 such appeals from 2,132 settlements in Ukraine.

Ukrainian nationalists continue to hold 90 foreign nationals from 5 countries hostage as "human shield".

The Ukrainian authorities have stopped paying pensions and salaries to state employees in the Kherson region after they shelled Kherson by Tochka-U. Russian troops began delivering humanitarian aid to the residents of Kherson.

3. Distribution of the humanitarian aid

Federal executive authorities, together with the subjects of the Russian Federation, various public organizations, patriotic movements, continue to accumulate humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

More than 22,000 tonnes of basic necessities and food kits, including baby food and life-saving medicines, have been prepared at collection points.

Since March 2nd, 16,489.1 tons of humanitarian cargo have already been delivered to Ukraine, 933 humanitarian actions have been carried out, including 6 actions in Zaporozhye region, as well as in the DPR, during which 282 tons of basic necessities, medicines and food were transferred to the civilian population of the liberated areas.

On April 29, seven humanitarian actions have been planned and are currently being carried out in Kharkov and Zaporozye regions, in Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, during which 396.8 tons of basic necessities, medicine and food will be distributed.

4. Commercial navigation at the Black Sea

75 foreign vessels from 17 countries remain blocked in 6 Ukrainian ports, including Kherson, Nikolaev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Odessa and Yuzhniy.

The threat of shelling and high mine danger created by official Kiev in its internal waters and territorial sea prevents vessels from safely leaving the ports and reaching the open sea.

In confirmation of this, the Russian Federation is opening daily from 08:00 to 19:00 (Moscow time) a humanitarian corridor, which is a safe lane south-west of Ukraine's territorial sea, 80 nautical miles long and 3 nautical miles wide. Detailed information in English and Russian on the modus operandi of the maritime humanitarian corridor is broadcast daily every 15 minutes on VHF radio on 14 and 16 international channels in English and Russian.

At the same time, the Kiev authorities continue to avoid engaging with representatives of states and ship-owning companies to resolve the issue of ensuring the safe passage of foreign vessels to the assembly area.

The danger to navigation from Ukrainian mines drifting off their anchors along the coasts of Black Sea states remains.

The Russian Federation is taking a full range of comprehensive measures to ensure the safety of civilian navigation in the waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

5. Massacre in Odessa: tragic anniversary

 It will soon be eight years since the terrible tragedy in Odessa. As a reminder for all those international players who talk about the humanitarian disaster and human rights violations, and use the word “genocide” on a daily basis, on May 2, 2014, Ukrainian nationalists, acting with blatant cruelty, came down on their fellow citizens protesting against the nationalist radical forces that came to power as a result of the Western-inspired armed coup in Kiev in February 2014. These people were collecting signatures for a referendum on the federalisation of Ukraine and granting the Russian language the status of a state language. Forty-eight people were burned alive, died from carbon monoxide poisoning, or fell to their death from the upper floors of the House of Trade Unions which was set on fire by the nationalists.

Some have been killed on the ground by metal rods. A pregnant woman has been strangled at the table by a telephone cord.

This case has not been investigated by two previous and the current Kiev regimes. Nobody has been punished.

6. NATO and non-NATO states are sending more and more arms to Ukraine

Russia expressed its displeasure over the statement made the other day by British Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for the Armed Forces James Heappey about Ukraine’s strikes against military targets in Russia being “completely legitimate.” There have been voices in favor of severing diplomatic relations with the UK. The argument was that the West is openly encouraging Kiev to attack Russia using weapons supplied by NATO countries. Kiev took this as a call to action. Over the past several weeks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have shelled the border areas of the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, and Voronezh regions resulting in casualties and destroyed property.

In Moscow’ view, while stockpiling Ukraine with deadly heavy weapons the Euro-Atlantic allies are increasing the risk of the conflict spreading further. Moreover, this self-appointed “support group” for the Kiev regime is violating many important international commitments, including:

1) The EU’s “common position” prohibits the export of arms if they create the obvious risk of use for domestic reprisal in a recipient country, or will lead to the violation of international humanitarian law, or facilitate the emergence or aggravation of armed conflict. So, what about your commitments? These are not commitments that the EU has given to someone else.

2)  The EU’s brainchild – the International Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) requires its participants to objectively assess the potential that any arms exported would “contribute to or undermine peace and security” or could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law, as well as acts of violence against women and children. This treaty bans the transfer of conventional arms or where there is knowledge that the items will be used in the commission of genocide, crimes against humanity, grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions of 1949, attacks directed against civilian objects or civilians. This matches exactly the list of crimes being committed every day by Ukrainian neo-Nazis and the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which they lead.

3) Many international commitments aimed at preventing the illegal trafficking of precision weapons are crudely violated. This applies to UN General Assembly Resolution 62/40 of 2007 on the “Prevention of the illicit transfer and unauthorised access to and use of man-portable air defence systems” and the 2003 elements of arms control over these weapons, as agreed to under the Wassenaar Arrangement over conventional arms export controls.

4) The Euro-Atlantic allies are crudely violating the long-standing international practice of strict observance of the provisions of end user certificates. One of them bans the re-export of arms by an importer state without the written consent of the exporter state or the owner of the relevant technological intellectual property. The US-led countries of the collective West bear all responsibility for these reckless violations of their commitments on arms transfer control.

Ukrainian military personnel are receiving American training in Europe, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby has revealed April 28th.. He announced that the USA has commenced training with the Ukrainian Armed Forces on key systems at the U.S military installations in Germany and in other European countries. Ukrainian troops are learning to operate artillery, radars and armored vehicles.

5. Where are the rest of weapons supplied to Ukraine by the West?

According to the results of research conducted annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Ukraine is confidently among the top ten largest suppliers of weapons to combat areas around the globe. For more than thirty years of the country's history, stable illegal arms sales markets with well-established logistics have been formed. The organizers of illegal schemes are firmly entrenched in senior positions of the SBU or Security Service of Ukraine and in criminal circles of Ukraine.

In 2017, Amnesty International reported that the Ukrainian state-owned special exporter of military products “Ukrinmash” illegally supplies weapons to South Sudan through the UAE. The volume of exports was measured in thousands of small arms, mortars and RPGs. Investigators of the project to expose organized crime and corruption have uncovered a criminal scheme for redirecting Ukrainian weapons through Poland, Slovakia, Moldova, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania to the markets of Africa and the Middle East. This activity was carried out by the “Techimpex” company registered in Kiev, associated with the British company “S-Profit.”

Despite the exposure, through the same "Techimpex", the Kiev regime is now fueling the flow of arms exports. On March 29, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, guided by national legislation, formed a list of "surplus" weapons to be sold abroad. It included tanks, armored vehicles, machine guns, rifles, grenades and bulletproof vests.

On April 19, CNN released an article expressing doubt about the use of weapons supplied to Ukraine by the Kiev regime for their intended purpose and stating that the White House does not have a mechanism for controlling the movement of weapons supplied to Ukraine. The publication recognizes that the United States and NATO countries to a large extent, they depend on the information provided by the Ukrainian authorities, that is, only such information that will support the arguments in favor of allocating additional assistance.

The Biden administration, under the pretext of the need to increase the combat power of Kiev, is ready to consciously take the risk of weapons, including heavy weapons, falling to third countries and armed groups of a terrorist orientation.

It is noteworthy that the West, positioning the possession of a full package of data on the position and condition of Russian forces on the territory of Ukraine, is experiencing difficulties in controlling the Ukrainian side. Or is it deliberately exposing an imaginary lack of information to the public? Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby confirmed that he has no information about the location and use of supplied weapons by Ukraine and suggested that "he will never know exactly to what extent they use it."

The U.S. defense and foreign policy analyst Jordan Cowen justified the inevitability of getting some of the weapons on the black market. As an example of the development of events, he cited the transfer of weapons of the US army to the Taliban during the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan.

A well-known American TV presenter on the FOX-News Channel, Tucker Carlson, took the initiative to audit Zelensky's financial activities, especially in terms of income received in the distribution of funds allocated by the United States and Europe as aid to Ukraine during the war.

The formation of orders for the number and types of weapons that Western countries subsequently supply Ukraine with, as far as possible, is completely at the mercy of the Kiev authorities. Western experts express deep doubt about the possession of the same authority with data on the real needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which , in the absence of control, poses a threat of directing the flow of weapons for sale by "arms barons".

One of the evidences of capital growth among the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the SBU is an increase in demand for luxury cars, which are supposedly necessary to help the army. Only since April 20, 14,300 passenger cars have been imported to Ukraine, a significant part of which belongs to the elite category, according to the Ukrainian online edition Strana.ua . Poland, Slovakia and Romania, struck by the pace of updating the personal fleet of representatives of the belligerent side, decided to reduce the number of checkpoints of supplied vehicles.

So, too many Western weapons sent to Ukraine is destroyed by Russian troops. But some of them disappeared. Where they will appear? In terrorist groups and in the hands of criminal gangs?

7. Critical remarks on the UN High Commissioner’s statement

Russia made critical remarks on a statement made by United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet on numerous cases where international humanitarian law was violated, and on war crimes in Ukraine.

Moscow expressed its regret that the statements made by the chief UN human rights official are far from the standards of objectivity and impartiality that all United Nations employees, especially at such a high level, must uphold. It has noted the statement’s obvious unfounded accusatory imbalance with regard to Russia, in line with the politicized statements we hear from Western countries. It is obvious that the High Commissioner and the Office entrusted to her have not been able to comprehend and analyse the situation in an independent and balanced manner, relying on irrefutable facts and evidence, including those provided by the Russian side. They have used speculations, fake stories and staged footage as an argument and a foundation on which they make their case.

Russia noted that Michelle Bachelet, in her statement, still casually mentions the crimes committed by the Ukrainian military and nationalists against their own civilian population. However, the real scale of such crimes, as openly evidenced by Ukrainian residents who suffered from them, is monstrous. There is irrefutable documentary evidence that proves their crimes. The Ukrainian armed forces and nationalist battalions did not comply with the requirements of international humanitarian law during the eight years of the conflict in Donbass. They are not complying with them now either. I know that Michelle Bachelet was not yet there in 2014 (she took office much later), but she could clarify what her predecessors and the Office had been doing to attract the international community’s attention, and to alleviate the suffering those people endured for eight years. It is quite possible now, with all the attention riveted on that region. Look what the UN Office has done so far. Have any statements been made on this scale? Russia regularly provided the respective materials, publicly through diplomatic channels. Russia convened conferences, held events, including at the UN headquarters in New York, and in Geneva.

8. Former members of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine detained in Donetsk and Lugansk

Competent bodies of the LPR and DPR are amassing evidence of the illegal activities by some members of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in Ukraine. The facts of systemic cooperation of some observers with the Ukrainian Armed Forces and security services are a source of special concern.

It is reported that SMM members provided them and foreign intelligence agents with information on the location of the people’s militia units of both republics, as well as other data that could damage the security of the republics and its civilians. It transpired that they used for this purpose the SMM cameras designed to monitor ceasefire compliance and the fulfilment of the sides’ commitments to keep equipment and heavy weapons in depots. Several former SMM employees from among local residents have been detained by the investigative bodies of the republics and are giving testimony.

All international personnel of the mission was evacuated in early March 2022.

9. Situation on the battlefield

Armed Forces of Ukraine continues shelling of the DPR and the LPR – deliberately targeting houses and social infrastructure with heavy weapons. Total 8 civilians have been killed, 28 injured.

High-precision, long-range air-based weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces have destroyed the production buildings of the Artyom missile and space enterprise in Kiev. High-precision long-range sea-based Kalibr missiles have destroyed 3 traction power substations near Fastov, Krasnosyolka and Polonnoe railway hubs.  High-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces have have hit 10 Ukrainian military assets. Among them: 9 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 1 ammunition depot near Illichovka.

Operational-tactical and army aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces have hit 112 military assets of Ukraine. These include 2 command posts, 11 strong points, 95 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 4 missile and artillery weapons depots in Pokrovskoe and Gorokhovskoe.

Missile troops have hit 13 targets during the night. 1 Ukrainian Tochka-U missile launcher, from which a strike was launched yesterday against residential areas in Kherson city, has been identified and destroyed near Gorokhovskoe, Nikolaev Region.

In addition, 6 areas of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment concentration and 3 artillery batteries of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and 1 division of the AFU multiple rocket launchers were destroyed.

Artillery units have carried out 975 firing missions during the night. The neutralised targets are 21 command posts, 69 strong points, 763 areas of manpower and military equipment, and 107 artillery positions.

The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 280 nationalists and up to 38 armoured and motor vehicles.

Russian air defence means have shot down 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles over Redkodub, Shiykovka, Nevskoe, Malaya Kamyshevakha, Stepnoy Yar, Petrovskoe, Zelenoe Pole, Bukovo, Panteleimonovka, Makeevka, Chernobaevka, including 1 Bayraktar-TB2 at the Russian-Ukrainian border near Novovodyannoe. Also, Ukrainian Smertch MLRS was shot down near Kamenka.


In total, from February 24th, 142 aircraft and 111 helicopters, 634 unmanned aerial vehicles, 278 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,638 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 304 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,175 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,467 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.


According to the Russian Defence Ministry, over 6,800 foreign mercenaries from 63 countries have flocked to Ukraine since the beginning of the special military operation. Most of them are citizens of Poland, the United States, Canada, Romania, Great Britain and Georgia.          

10. Sweden and Finland: What are the consequences of their joining NATO?

From May 16 to May 20, during a meeting in Helsinki, the leaders of Finland and Sweden intend to apply for membership in NATO. As promised by the current Secretary General of the alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, they will be accepted intoit as full members fairly quickly and without any special formalities. It is quite possible that this will happen at the summit of the bloc, which will be held in June this year in Madrid.

The obsession of the military-political leadership of these countries to abandon their long-standing neutral status, and then become part of this largest and most dangerous military alliance, did not arise as a result of Russia's special military operation on the territory of Ukraine. Such an idea has been wandering for many years in the most radical and militaristic part of Swedish and Finnish society, but the negative attitude towards its implementation of the overwhelming majority of citizens of the two named states, as shown by public opinion polls conducted in them, did not allow Stockholm and Helsinki to decide to join the ranks of the transatlantic solidarity alliance.

Sweden and Finland have maintained the closest military ties with the alliance for many years. Their close military-delegation exchange and military-technical cooperation took place with him. In their armed forces, organizational and managerial and operational-combat instructions and NATO standards were implemented. They took part in the military exercises of the bloc.

Sweden shares with the countries of the transatlantic alliance space and ground intelligence data collected at the Esrange center, which is located near the city of Kiruna in the north of the country.

Stockholm has already supplied 6,000 AT-4 anti-tank grenade launchers to the Kiev ultra-nationalist regime, produced in cooperation with American weapons manufacturers.

Finland provides its territory for testing modern NATO strike and reconnaissance drones. The Finnish leadership has ordered 64 F-35A fighter-bombers in the United States, certified for the delivery of the latest American tactical nuclear weapons in the form of new-generation adjustable air-dropped nuclear bombs, like B61-12 with a maximum 50 kt nuclear yield.

Leading Western experts believe that the main reason for the intensification of efforts to integrate Sweden and Finland into NATO is also unprecedented pressure from Washington. According to Associate professor of the University of Helsinki Johan Backman, it is the USA and other leading NATO countries are pulling Stockholm and Helsinki into the North Atlantic alliance.

In the Finnish printed and electronic media, a pro-Ukrainian military psychosis is deliberately cultivated, aimed at the formation of aggressive Russophobia among the population. On April 26 of this year, the deputy from the Social Democratic Party of Finland, Erkki Tuomioja, said that the national media constantly escalate the fear of an imminent invasion by Russia. Despite the extremely low interest of Finns in both the conflict and the history of Ukraine as a whole, the streets of cities and social networks are overflowing with national Ukrainian symbols.

The Finnish leadership, for reasons of "European solidarity", supports the supply of arms and military equipment by the European Union to Ukraine.

The Finnish state broadcaster YLE has distributed survey data without specifying the affiliation of social groups, their location and coverage of the studied audience, according to which up to 80 percent of the population allegedly support the country's membership in NATO. On March 20, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto said that a referendum on the country's accession to the alliance, they say, is not needed, since opinion polls show that the majority of Finns support this idea.

At the same time, Finland's initiative runs counter to Helsinki's earlier commitments under a number of international treaties.

In particular, according to the Aland Convention of 1921, which enshrines the demilitarized status of the Aland Islands, the Paris Peace Treaty of 1947, which limits the composition and strength of the Finnish armed forces, the treaty "On the Foundations of Relations between the Russian Federation and Finland" of 1992, defining obligations about the non-provision of its territory to third countries for attack. Finland's accession to NATO will lead to a revision of the Russian-Finnish lease agreement until 2063 of the Saimaa Canal, which is the only waterway existing between the Saimaa Lakes network and the Gulf of Finland.

In pursuit of illusory security guarantees, Stockholm and Helsinki are destroying with their own hands the architecture of European security built after the Second World War, the effectiveness of which has been confirmed by decades of peaceful and good-neighborly relations between Sweden and Finland with the Russian Federation. The entry of these two Northern European states into the transatlantic military alliance will increase Russophobic sentiments.

The expected admission of Sweden and Finland to NATO will undoubtedly put them in front of the need to participate in dangerous military operations of the alliance's armed forces far beyond their borders, and will also lead to a significant increase in their military budget. There is no doubt that NATO military bases will be mushroomed on the Swedish and Suomi soil or NATO military will use their local ones constantly without getting a special permission.

Both of these countries will also dramatically lower their sovereignty and military-political independence, as well as modify their foreign policy in a militarized way.

 


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report No 4. Kiev war vs Donbas intensified: Recognition of two republics by Russia

 

February 21st,2022

 

1. Ceasefire violations

OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) in its Daily Report #39/2022 issued on 19 February 2022 has recognized that based on information from the Monitoring Teams as of 19:30 EET 18 February 2022: (a) in Donetsk region, the SMM recorded 591 ceasefire violations, including 553 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 222 ceasefire violations in the region; (b) in Luhansk region, the SMM recorded 975 ceasefire violations, including 860 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 648 ceasefire violations in the region.

By 21:00 Moscow time February 21 the OSCE SMM failed to place the next daily report at the OSCE website. The reason has not been announced.

“Only in recent days, the artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has fired more than 1,700 mortars and shells into residential areas. Heavy artillery, mortars, grenade launchers and tanks are hitting us. People are dying,” the head of the DPR said in a statement.

https://sputniknews.com/20220221/live-updates-kiev-forces-continue-shelling-donbass-on-monday-lpr--dpr-say-1093217700.html

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksy Reznikov announced that Kiev has supplied Ukrainian Armed Forces deployed in Donbas near line of disengagement Western weapons and ammunition delivered by a number of NATO countries to Ukraine in violation of the 1993 OSCE decision not to sell weapons into the conflict zones.  

https://russian.rt.com/ussr/article/965376-donbass-ukraina-obostrenie-konflikt-rossiya

 

         

2. Genocide in Donbas

February 21 Ukrainian Armed Forces have fired 618 shells and projectiles against 22 populated areas in DPR and LPR.

On Monday, February 21 officials in Donetsk declared a state of emergency, saying that their pump/filtration stations had stopped working amid the shelling and that they were unable to distribute potable water. “In connection with intensive artillery strikes … over the past few days, there have been a series of breaches of the normal operation of systems of life support,” officials stated. According to them, more than 21,000 residents had been left without potable water. Over 21,000 Donbass local residents, 50 social buildings, hospitals in Dokuchaevsk and Olenevka in DPR have been cut off to potable water supply, the DPR Emergency Ministry said.

Kiev stopped potable water supply to Lugansk area.

https://sputniknews.com/20220221/live-updates-kiev-forces-continue-shelling-donbass-on-monday-lpr--dpr-say-1093217700.html

https://www.rt.com/russia/550106-donetsk-request-help-military-moscow/

Around 26 120-mm caliber mines were launched at Petrivkse on Monday morning, according to DPR. The settlement of Staromykhailivka was also shelled: a total of fourteen 120-mm caliber mines were launched at the village at around 07:00 am local time (05:00 GMT). Both of these locations were also shelled over the weekend.

           

 

https://t.me/sputniknewsus/7410?single

Two schools have been hit in Donetsk. In one of them # 105 four classrooms have been destroyed, glasses in its 65 windows shattered. 

One civilian and one miliary man were killed, three civilians were wounded and  two soldiers were shell-shocked in Donetsk after shelling from the Ukrainian side.

3. Donbas refugees

Around 68,000 residents of the two republics have crossed the border into Russia's Rostov Region as part of evacuation amid violent Ukrainian troops drive into Donbas, Acting Russian Emergencies Minister Alexander Chupriyan said on Monday.

https://sputniknews.com/20220221/live-updates-kiev-forces-continue-shelling-donbass-on-monday-lpr--dpr-say-1093217700.html

 

         

4. Ukrainian armed attacks on Russia: new risky tendency

1. Monday, February 21 Russia’s armed forces have reported that its troops opened fire on a “Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group” that attempted to cross into the country. In a statement issued on Monday, military chiefs said that “a unit of the Southern Military District, alongside a border patrol by the Russian Federal Security Service, prevented a sabotage and reconnaissance group from violating the Russian state border from the territory of Ukraine.” Five Ukrainian soldiers were killed, and one soldier detained.  No Russian servicemen were injured during the firefight. The ministry added that during the attack, two combat infantry vehicles belonging to Kiev’s armed forces crossed into Russian territory in an attempt to rescue the alleged saboteurs. Both vehicles have been destroyed by anti-tank fire.

https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/13784397?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop

         

2. A border post along the border between Russia and Ukraine (150 m away from the border) has been hit by a projectile launched from Ukraine Monday, February 21, 2022 at 9:50 AM local time, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) has reported. It did not lead to any casualties. "On 21 February at 09:50 AM [06:50 GMT], a projectile fired from the territory of Ukraine fully destroyed the office of border patrols of the Russian FSB border department in the Rostov region, located at a distance of about 150 meters [490 feet] from the Russian-Ukrainian border,” the FSB said in a statement.

https://russian.rt.com/ussr/article/965376-donbass-ukraina-obostrenie-konflikt-rossiya

         

3. February 19 around 5:00 AM local time Tarasovsky District, Rostov Region, a secondary-duty road was hit located one kilometer deep into Russian territory by two Ukrainian shells. Nobody was hurt.

   В погрануправлении подтвердили попадание двух снарядов на территорию России

            https://avia.pro/news/ukraina-atakovala-rossiyu-vypustiv-artilleriyskie-snaryady-po-rossiyskomu-naselennomu-punktu

4. The same day at в 9:50 Ukrainian shell hit the same area on the Russian territory located at 150 meters from Russian-Ukrainian border.

https://www.interfax.ru/russia/823145

         

5. Recognition of two republics by Russia

February 21, the leaders of DPR and LPR have appealed to the Kremlin to recognize them as “independent, democratic, and as social state based on the rule of law”. Both republics asked Russia to sign Treaties on Friendship and Cooperation with the provision on military technical cooperation with them.

https://russian.rt.com/ussr/news/965681-pushil-rossiya-dnr?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop

At the Russian Security Council special session held February 21 in the evening, all participants have supported the notion to recognize their independence.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made a critical remark to President Zelensky’s intention to regain nuclear weapons. He said that Kiev amassed 59.3 thousand troops near DPR and LPR.

Speaking at the end of the session, during which government ministers and the head of the country’s security agencies claimed that the humanitarian situation across the border is worsening, Putin promised to make a decision the same day. 

In the evening of February 21, Putin informed the leaders of Germany and France about the debates at the Special Security Council session.

In a very detailed TV address to the nation made late evening February 21, Vladimir Putin made critical remarks on Kiev desire to produce nuclear weapons and conducting offensive military drills with NATO, offering overflight rights for the U.S. heavy strategic bombers in the Ukrainian . space.  After that he has signed a decree on immediate recognition of DPR and LPR. Treaties on Friendship and Cooperation have been signed between Russia and DPR and LPR. Putin demanded that Kiev should promptly stop military attacks on Donbas.

It is obvious that the U.S. and NATO’s noise over ‘Russian imminent attack versus Ukraine’ has been invented by them to give Kiev much broader possibility to get huge amount of  Western weapons and to smash Donbas, and to cover up Ukrainian overt large-scale aggression against civilians in Donbas with an intension to massacre them all.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report No. 6. Aims of the russian peace enforcement operation

The aim of Russian "special military operation" is to destroy Ukrainian war machine (demilitarization) that has killed 14000 civilians in Donbass, to enforce denazification of the Ukrainian society and to stage trial vs those who issued criminal orders for launching genocide in Donbass. The reference was to Article 51 of the UN Charter. It is self-defense versus multiple outside threats.

By now all Ukrainian AAD and military airfields have been destroyed.  Airstrips of two airports that accepted NATO military cargos send to kill more civilians have been destroyed too. War depots and warehouses have been blown up by hi-tech, high-precision strike weapons.

Moscow asked Ukrainian AF to lay down arms and to go home. Ukrainian border guards have not returned fire and surrendered.

Some key military command HQ have been destroyed as well.

Russia does not use arms against civilians and civilian infrastructure.

All urgent  info is at English websites of RT.com, TASS, Sputniknews.com.

Unfortunately, the US and NATO leaders call Zelensky to resist. So, once again they are acting like accomplices of a criminal gang - they created, nourished and canalized.

It is in vain. No chances.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report No.5. Why Moscow has recognized two republics in Donbass? Recent analysis of the situation

1. Reasons for recognition

Russia recognized the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR) in the evening February 21, 2022 for following eight reasons:
 
(1) it did so in response to relevant calls made by the Russian State Duma (February 12, 2022), as well as the DPR and LPR leaders made earlier;
 
(2) Kiev's continuing refusal to implement all 13 provisions of the Minsk agreements approved by the UN Security Council (Resolution 2202) during nearly eight years (from 2015 till 2022) of tough talks conducted with Russia, Germany and France with the aim to persuade two Ukrainian presidents, including the current one, Volodimir Zelensky, to do so, but in vain;
 
(3) in January-February 2022 the Ukrainian government had amassed considerable forces along the line of disengagement with the two Donbass republics: according to the Russian Defense Ministry, Kiev has concentrated near the line of disengagement 60.000 regular troops plus illegal armed formations, 354 tanks, more than 2.000 armored combat vehicles and 600 multiple rocket launching systems (named Grad, Smerch and Uragan), plus several hundred heavy artillery pieces and heavy mortars with more than 100 mm caliber (the latter are prohibited by the Minsk agreements; item 2);
 
(4) on February 17, 2022 the Ukrainian Armed Forces without any warning and unilaterally started massive shelling of Donbass over the entire 400 km-long line of disengagement aiming its main social and economic infrastructure; February, 19-20 Donbass has been shelled 107 times; in 70 cases the Ukrainian Armed Forces used 122-mm artillery guns and 120-mm mortars.
 
(5) the Ukrainian Armed Forces have ramped up shelling of Donbass in a clear violation of the Minsk accords; the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine reported the intensification of shelling of Donbass: in February 14 there were nearly 591 ceasefire violations, and on February 18-20 there were 3.231 ceasefire violations;
 
(6) February 19-21 the Ukrainian Armed Forces three times shelled Rostov Region on the undisputable Russian territory and moved two armored combat vehicles into that area (they have been destroyed, 5 Ukrainian soldiers killed);
 
(7) at the Munich Security Conference Ukrainian president Volodimir Zelensky publicly warned the audience that Ukraine might regain nuclear weapons it has possessed till 1994 that subsequently has been relocated to Russia as a successor state of the former Soviet Union (Note: Moscow believes that such Ukrainian statement creates additional threat to Russia and European states; today Ukraine has delivery systems capable to carry tactical nuclear weapons, like shorter range ballistic missiles named “Tochka-U” used during second Ukrainian aggression versus populated areas in Donbass in 2015; that time they have been fitted with conventional warheads);
 
(8) the exodus of refugees from Donbass to Russia started from February 18 when the leadership of the DPR and LPR announced the evacuation of elderly people, women, and children to Russia (Note: by February 21, nearly 68,000 residents of the two republics have crossed the border and moved into Russia (Note: by February 23 this figure was around 98.000 people, including 60.000 Ukrainians and 48.000 Russians. The total figure included 31.000 children.
 

2. NATO policy versus the Ukrainian military drive into Donbass

Such policy has not changed.
 
The USA and its major allies are still inciting ultra-nationalist Kiev’s regime to continue the war against Donbass. NATO countries continue to supply Ukraine with weapons and ammunitions, and extend to it huge political and financial support. The USA has sent additionally several heavy strategic nuclear-capable bombers, B-52H to the Czech Republic (4 more of them are already in the UK), and additional medium-range DCA to Lithuania and Estonia, including the newest F-35s, presumably with nuclear weapons. 
 
Such actions and several provocative bellicose statements made recently by the U.S. president, NATO and the EU leaders complicate any possibility to resolve the issue in a peaceful matter.

3. Assessment of the situation by February 23

The situation in Donbass remains tense, as Kiev continues to carry out attacks in the region. According to Lugansk, on February 22 alone Ukrainian forces violated the ceasefire regime at least 114 times.
According to Denis Pushilin, the DPR leader, after Russia has recognized the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics as independent nations February, 21 the number of attacks launched by the Ukrainian Armed Forces against Donbass has increased.
 
For the first time the Ukrainian Armed Forces used the MRLS Grad against civilian targets in Donbass.
 
Denis Pushilin underscored that "at the moment, there are no Russian troops" in the Donbass republics.
 
Moscow decided to close down its Embassy and Consulates in Ukraine.
 
Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Report № 212. Russian Defence Minister announced updated information

March 7, 2023

1. Sergei Shoigu underscored the developments on the battlefield in rebuffing Ukrainian-NATO aggression

According to Defence Minister, General of the Army Sergei Shoigu, the offensive operations of the Russian forces in Donetsk and Kupyansk directions resulted in the liberation of Nikolayevka, Dvurechnoye, Krasnaya Gora, Gryanikovka, and Paraskoviyevka.


The liberation of Artyomovsk/Bakhmut by Russian servicemen is in progress. Around 10,000 Ukrainian GIs are trapped there


He noted that this city is an important defence node of the Ukrainian forces in Donbass. Taking it under control will allow to carry out further offensive operations towards the depth of the defence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). 'Within the U.S.-led strategy 'to defeat Russia by force of arms', Western countries increase the supplies of armament and military hardware to Ukraine, and amplify the training curricula of Ukrainian army's personnel', stated the Minister of Defence.

Meanwhile, according to Sergei Shoigu, the support provided by NATO countries to the Kiev regime does not lead the Ukrainian forces to any success on the battlefield. On the contrary, a considerable increase in casualties has been noted amongst the AFU personnel.


In February 2023, these casualties rose by over 40% in comparison with last January. They amounted to over 11,000 Ukrainian troops.


In this regard, the Kiev regime's indifference to its people and inconsideration to the enormous human losses in favour of the Western curators are astonishing. 'In turn, saving lives and health of the personnel and civilians remain our priority, stressed the Minister of Defence. 'We will continue our action within the Special Military Operation'.

2. AFU continues the policy of genocide in Donbass

During more than one year of escalation of the Ukrainian-NATO aggression against Donbass that began on February 14, 2022 till March 6, 2023, the Joint Center for Control and Coordination of issues related to Ukrainian war crimes in Donbass reported that only in the DPR there have been 16,027 instances of shelling of civilians in the Republic, of which 15,695 involved the use of heavy weapons.

Since February 24, 2023 till March 6, 2023 that is for eleven days AFU used totally 1195 shells and rockets against the DPR only.

Civilians, their homes and social infrastructure in the DPR and the LPR are being shelled every day by AFU/NATO servicemen by employing different types of shells with caliber 152 and 155 mm, including M-30A1 and M-30 fired by HIMARS MLRS, all of them being staffed and operated by active U.S. soldiers.

Currently around 108 Ukrainian/NATO shells and rockets are being fired per each 24 hours. Minimum number of missiles and shells that have been used was 40 pieces recorded on March 5, 2023, and maximum number – 193 pieces recorded on February 28, 2023.


AFU continues to shell Zaporozhye NPP that became the property of the Russian Federation. Kiev’s nuclear blackmail goes on.


Dozens of civilians have been killed and injured during such attacks.


Who will protect them? NATO? The USA? Or the EU that for the first time in its long history became a real supplier of offensive heavy weapons to a failed, inhuman and super-aggressive Kiev regime?


The shelling from AFU was carried out with weapons supplied by NATO countries, which, together with Ukrainian heavy weapons, continue to terrorize civilians and destroy the social infrastructure in two Donbass Republics, namely the DPR and the LPR.

3. Ukraine asked the USA for cluster munitions delivered by drones

Kiev reportedly wants MK-20 cluster munitions, a weapon prohibited in more than 120 countries. Ukraine has doubled its requests for dangerous cluster munitions with which it wants to target Russian troops and civilians from drones, Reuters reported on February 8, citing US lawmakers.

According to US Representatives Jason Crow and Adam Smith, who sit on the House Armed Services Committee, Kiev has urged Congress to press President Joe Biden’s administration to approve the deliveries despite the fact that the USA is barred from exporting such weapons by law.


Ukraine is in particular seeking MK-20 cluster bombs which could be dropped from drones, in addition to 155mm artillery cluster shells Kiev had already requested, the lawmakers told the agency. They said the request came at last month’s Munich Security Conference.


MK-20 cluster munitions are delivered by aircraft and release more than 240 submunitions mid-air. According to Smith, the Ukrainian military believes such weapons “have better armor-piercing capability” than assets it has used before.

Cluster munitions are considered dangerous as they are capable of dispersing a large number of bomblets over wide areas, lying dormant until disturbed. The 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions which banned the weapons is signed by more than 120 countries due to the high risk they present to civilian populations especially.

However, neither the USA, nor Ukraine are among them.  

Russia has never used cluster munitions while repelling current Ukrainian-NATO unprovoked aggression against Donbass.

4. Food for thought and for action

A 10-years boy named Fyodor who was injured by Ukrainian AFU saboteurs on March 2, 2023 during their raid in Bryansk Region, the Russian Federation {see Report # 211 dated March 3, 2023] has been deliberately shot in his back by a NATO bullet.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Revised Report # 17. Second briefing of the russian MoD on the ukrainian top secret biolabs

 

March 12th, 2022

1. Extra proof of the Ukrainian bio weaponization

 March 10th, 2022 Russian Defence Ministry released the second group of PPT slides (see them attached separately) accompanied by a briefing describing that Ukraine was funded directly by the Pentagon with the aim to create a biological weapon targeting certain ethnic groups. US-funded labs in Ukraine also dealt with bat coronavirus. There were allegedly plans to move on to African swine fever virus and to anthrax. The U.S. and Ukrainian scientists also studied the possibility of pathogen transmission by wild birds migrating between Russia, Ukraine and other neighboring countries. Russia’s Ministry of Defense cited documents it claims it captured at such Ukrainian facilities (see slides).

US Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland acknowledged on March 8, 2022 that Ukraine has “biological research facilities.” Speaking under oath in a Senate hearing, she said that US officials are “quite concerned” that Russian forces may seek to gain control of the labs, and were “working” with Kiev to prevent this from happening.

Russia’s envoy to the UN Vassily Nebenzia has warned members of the Security Council March 11th (transcript is attached below) that dangerous pathogens could escape the boundaries of Ukraine and spread across Europe, calling on the EU to consider this grim possibility. He added that Russia warned the international community of the threat of terrorists stealing biomaterials from the Ukrainian more than 30 laboratories functioning across the country. Various samples from them have been sent to Australia and Germany.

The USA and Ukraine thus violated Article 1 of the BWC that bans the development, stockpiling and use of biological and toxin weapons, they ratified in 1975. Russia would not exclude a possibility of activating mechanisms envisaged by Articles 5 and 6 of the BWC.

Speaking to journalists on March 9th, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said that Beijing had information indicating that the said laboratories in Ukraine were just the “tip of an iceberg.” Zhao went on to claim that the Pentagon “controls 336 biological laboratories in 30 countries around the world,” with the secret program operating under the guise of efforts to “reduce biosecurity risks” and to strengthen “global public health.”

The World Health Organization (WHO) has reportedly told Kiev to dispose of dangerous research materials kept in laboratories around the country to prevent the pathogens from being leaked or “accidentally” released. As part of this work, WHO has strongly recommended to the Ministry of Health in Ukraine and other responsible bodies to destroy high-threat pathogens to prevent any potential spills,” the UN agency stated, as quoted by Reuters. It specified neither the nature of materials that should be  destroyed, nor the date when it gave the advice. The agency only reportedly told Reuters that it had been working with Kiev for “several years” to make sure “accidental or deliberate release of pathogens” never happens.

2. Progress of the Russian military operation

On the morning of March 11th, high-precision long-range weapons attacked Ukraine's military infrastructure. The military airfields in Lutsk and Ivano-Frankivsk were disabled. During the day, fighter aircraft and military air defence shot down 3 Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopters, 8 unmanned aerial vehicles, including 5 Bayraktar TB-2 Turkish drones. Operational-tactical and army aviation hit 107 military assets of the UAF, including: 6 command/control posts and communication centers, 14 ammunition and fuel depots, 11 areas of military equipment concentration.

During the operation that started February 24th, 2022, total 3.213 Ukrainian military targets were destroyed and disabled.

Destroyed were: 98 aircraft, 118 unmanned aerial vehicles, 1.041 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 113 multiple launch rocket systems, 389 field artillery guns and mortars, 843 special military vehicles.

The Donetsk People's Republic militia liberated Volnovakha city (see slides).

Due to European countries’ decision to send hundreds of mercenaries and neo-nazis to fight in Ukraine Moscow permitted Russian volunteers to go there.

3. U.S. Patriot batteries to be moved to Poland

The Pentagon has said it would move two Patriot anti-missile batteries to Poland at Warsaw’s “invitation.” Since the start of the Russian military offensive in Ukraine on February 24, Poland has become one of the most vocal proponents of increased military assistance to Ukraine.

Warsaw suggested handing over its entire fleet of Soviet-built MiG-29 jets to the Pentagon so that Washington could then transfer the warplanes to Ukraine. The scheme envisioned a handover of the Polish-owned jets at a NATO military base in Germany, where the US was supposed to take over the mission and fly the craft into Ukraine. The proposal was rejected by Washington later on March 9th. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby stated that the proposed deal was not “tenable,” as the implementation of the plan risked dragging NATO into the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

Kiev has repeatedly appealed to NATO to declare a no-fly zone over its territory – though to no avail. The bloc has argued that such a commitment would likely draw other European countries into the hostilities, sparking a “full-fledged war” on the continent.

4. Many MANPAD seized

Russia captures a large number of portable anti-aircraft missile systems of various types, like Igla in Kherson March 11th. Currently, verification of the serial numbers of MANPADS has been organized to identify the supplier country of this weapon from European countries and the United States. Russia will continue to search for and seize MANPADS abandoned by nationalists in order to prevent such weapons from reaching terrorists, their export outside Ukraine and as a threat to civil aviation flights.

5. Ukrainian provocation in Kharkov

Another provocation of nationalists was recorded in Kharkov still in the hands of them, where, in order to conceal research results, Ukrainian nationalist battalions blew up one of the buildings of the Physics and Technology Institute on Akademicheskaya Street. The institutes has a research nuclear reactor. Up to 50 employees of the institution can be under the rubble.

Ukrainian nationalists exploded two mines inside a maternity hospital in Mariupol and then staged a play with only one female “victim” who is a famous Ukrainian blogger Marianna Podgurskaya noticed several times at another scenes as “wounded” and even “dead”. Video and photo footage attempting to present the damaged hospital building as a result of a 'Russian airstrike' is nothing but a blatant lie and as a false-flag.

Podgurskaya was photographed in several different settings in a photoshoot staged specifically to be conducted by a renowned professional photographer, who arrived at the scene many hours later. She changed her clothes and her makeup for each setting. According to the project, Podgurskaya is indeed pregnant, but could not have been a patient of the Mariupol maternity hospital as it has been occupied earlier by militants.

6. Refugees tragedy in Ukraine

It still continues because president Zelensky uses such issue to delay a final collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF). The Kiev authorities have legalized crimes against humanity, ignore numerous cases of looting, robbery, banditry, and sanctioned the use of weapons by nationalists against the civilian population, including women and children. The Kiev authorities have banned the mayors of cities from any contacts with the Russian side, including on the organization of humanitarian corridors. All those who disagree are simply shot.

Of the ten free passage routes Russia proposed, the Ukrainian side agreed on only two - on Kiev and Mariupol directions. At the same time, once again not a single humanitarian corridor to the Russian Federation have been agreed by Kiev. At the same time, the Kiev authorities additionally announced four more routes from Izyum, Energodar, Volnovakha and in the Zhytomyr direction. For humane purposes, Moscow agreed with them.

Up to now more than 223.000 people have been evacuated into Russia from heavily shelled Donbass since February 18th, 2022, including 50.258 children. So far, the state border of the Russian Federation was crossed by 23.253 vehicles, of which 1.249 per day. There are already 2.6 mln of them from almost 2.000 settlements of Ukraine wishing to go to Russia.

To date, as updated figures show, more than 7.000 from 21 foreign countries remain hostage to Ukrainian neo-Nazis, whom the nationalists continue to hold as "human shield".

By the decision of the Minister of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, foreign students evacuated from Ukraine will be able to continue their studies at Russian universities according to quotas for foreign students. To this end, the Ministry is already preparing notes to the embassies of the relevant foreign states.

Annex

Statement by Permanent Representative Vassily Nebenzia at UN SC briefing on biological laboratories in Ukraine. March 11th, 2022

Madam President,

Colleagues,

COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated how vulnerable humanity is in the face of biological threats. It has exacted a huge toll on us, and it continues to claim people’s lives.

When the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) entered into force in 1975, there was hope that the world would at least be safe from manmade biological threats, because all states-signatories realized enormous risks of using biological weapons (BW) and abandoned plans to develop it.

Unfortunately, we have grounds to think that those hopes did not come true completely.

We called this meeting because during the Russian special military operation in Ukraine, some shocking facts came to light: the Kiev regime is urgently concealing traces of a military biological program that Kiev implemented with support of the US Department of Defense.

Defense Ministry of Russia got hold of documents confirming that Ukraine developed a network of at least 30 biological laboratories that host extremely dangerous biological experiments, aimed at enhancing the pathogen properties of plague, anthrax, tularemia, cholera, and other lethal diseases with the help of synthetic biology. This work is funded and directly supervised by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) of the United States, i.a. in the interests of Pentagon’s National Center for Medical Intelligence. The key role in these programs was played by a BSL-3 central reference laboratory at the Mechnikov Scientific-Research Anti-Plague Institute in Odessa, Ukraine. Research centers in other cities also played a role – Kiev, Lvov, Kharkov, Dnipro, Kherson, Ternopol, Uzhgorod, Vinnytsia. Research results were sent to US military biological centers, i.a. to U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infections Diseases, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, US Naval Medical Research, and US Army Biological Warfare Labs in Fort Detrick that used to be the key hubs of the American biological weapons program.

All the materials are available at the website of Russian Ministry of Defense and are presented at daily briefings. Let me cite the most telling examples.

Russian military learned the details of UP-4 project which was implemented at laboratories in Kiev, Kharkov and Odessa. It studied possibilities of spreading particularly dangerous infections through migratory birds, including highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza (lethal to humans in 50 % of cases) and Newcastle disease. As part of another project, bats were considered as carriers of potential BW agents. Among the priorities identified are the study of bacterial and viral pathogens that can be transmitted from bats to humans: pathogens of plague, leptospirosis, brucellosis, as well as coronaviruses and filoviruses. Project documents clearly indicate that the United States actively financed bioprojects in Ukraine.

Besides, there were experiments to study spreading of dangerous infectious diseases by ectoparasites – fleas and lice. It is clear even to non-experts that such experiments are most reckless, as they give no opportunity to control how the situation is going to evolve. Similar research (using fleas and lice as BW agents) was carried out in the 1940s on the development of biological weapons components by the Japanese infamous unit 731, whose members later fled to the US to escape prosecution for war crimes.

Ukraine has a unique geographical location, where transcontinental migration routes of potential carriers of dangerous diseases intersect. Many of those routes pass through the territories of Russia and Eastern Europe. The research that I mentioned was done in the very midst of Eastern Europe and in close vicinity to the Russian borders. According to the data received, the birds that were ringed and released during biological research from the Kherson nature reserve, were caught in Ivanovo and Voronezh regions of Russia.

The analysis of the obtained materials confirms the transfer of more than 140 containers with ectoparasites of bats from a biolab in Kharkov abroad. We do not know anything about the fate of those dangerous biomaterials and the consequences that may occur once they “dissipate” (possibly in Europe) in the absence of any international control. In any case, risks are high that they may be stolen for terrorist purposes or to be sold at the black market.

Several thousands of samples of blood serum of COVID-19 patients (most of them of Slavic ethnicity) were transported from Ukraine to Walter Reed Army Institute of Research in the United Stated – allegedly for trials of treatment and prevention of COVID-19.

Everyone knows how sensitive Western states are when it comes to transferring biological samples of their citizens abroad. And there is a good reason for that – theoretically, samples may be used to create bioagents capable of selectively targeting different ethnic populations.

The activity of biolabs in Ukraine that we track back to 2014, and US-implemented program of so-called reform of Ukrainian healthcare system triggered uncontrolled growing incidence of dangerous and economically relevant infections in Ukraine. There is an increase in the number of cases of rubella, diphtheria, tuberculosis. Occurrence of measles has increased more than 100-fold. The World Health Organization said Ukraine runs high risks of having a polio outbreak. There is evidence that in Kharkov, where one of the labs is located, 20 Ukrainian soldiers died of swine flu in January 2016, 200 more were hospitalized. By March 2016, the total of 364 people had died of swine flu in Ukraine. Besides, outbreaks of African swine fever occur regularly in Ukraine. In 2019, there was an outbreak of a disease that had symptoms similar to plague.

While the US itself shut down military-purpose biological research on its territory due to high risks it posed to American population, the Kiev authorities actually agreed to turn their country into a biological testing site and have their citizens used as potential test subjects. Those experiments bearing potential country-scale risks continued for years. This once again proves the cynicism of Kiev’s Western patrons who keep shouting from every rooftop that they care for the fate of Ukrainians.

As reported by Reuters, WHO recommended that Ukraine should eliminate its stocks of pathogens to avoid possible leaks that might trigger disease spread among the population. It is not known for sure whether Kiev has complied.

The materials that our Defense Ministry got hold of prove that all serious high-risk research in Ukrainian biolabs was directly supervised by US experts who had diplomatic immunity. Our Defense Ministry reports that at this moment the Kiev regime, as demanded by the Western sponsors, hastily covers up all traces so that the Russian side could not get hold of direct evidence of the US and Ukraine violating Article 1 of the BTWC. They rush to shut down all biological programs. Ukraine’s Health Ministry ordered to eliminate biological agents deposited in biolabs starting from 24 February 2022. We infer from the instructions to lab personnel that the order of elimination of collections suggested that they should be destroyed irrevocably. Having analyzed the destruction certificates, we can say that the Lvov lab alone destroyed 232 containers with pathogens of leptospirosis, 30 – of tularemia, 10 – of brucellosis, 5 – of plague. The total of more than 320 containers was eliminated. Pathogens’ titles and excessive amounts give reason to think that this work was done as part of military biological programs.

Now let me make a separate address to our colleagues from Europe.

All those years, there was a site for dangerous biological tests on the doorstep of the European Union. We call to think of a real biological threat to the population of European states that may be posed by uncontrolled spread of biological agents from Ukraine. As we know from our experience with COVID-19, this cannot be stopped. Should this be the case, it will encompass the entire Europe.

US representatives get rather confused when speaking about the US involvement in biological activity on the territory of Ukraine. During hearings of the US Congress on 8 March, Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland in fact confirmed that there were biolabs in Ukraine where military-purpose biological research had been conducted. When asked by Senator Marco Rubio whether Ukraine had biological and chemical weapons, she responded that Ukraine had biological research facilities that “should not fall in the hands of Russian forces”.

At the same time, the Department of State sticks to the point that allegedly there are no US-controlled biolabs in Ukraine. Hence a question to the American delegation. How does this reconcile with 2005 Agreement between the U.S. Department of Defense and Ukrainian Ministry of Health Concerning Cooperation in the Area of Prevention of Proliferation of Technology, Pathogens, and Expertise that could be Used in the Development of Biological Weapons? This document is available on the Internet. According to Article 3 of this agreement, the US Department of Defense may provide assistance to the Ministry of Health of Ukraine in the area of “cooperative biological research, biological threat agent detection and response” with regard to “dangerous pathogens located at the facilities in Ukraine”.

We emphasize that biological threats defy all borders. No region of the world can feel totally safe today. The United States supervises several hundreds of biolabs in 30 countries, i.a. in the Middle East, Africa, South-East Asia, and along the perimeter of former USSR. Washington does not agree to subject them to international verification. Starting from 2001, it has been impeding elaboration of a binding protocol to the BTWC that should envisage a reliable verification mechanism to monitor states’ compliance with the Convention. This cannot but make us think that the United States has something to conceal. I call on the colleagues from those regions to think of what sort of activity Washington is carrying out on their territories and what consequences it may have for the population.

We foresee the reaction of our Western colleagues who will definitely say that this information is all fake and Russian propaganda. However, this sort of wishful thinking will hardly help Europeans should Ukraine and its neighboring states have outbreaks of dangerous diseases that would subsequently spread beyond their borders. This risk seems rather real if we take into account considerable interest that Ukrainian radical and nationalist groups have in research of dangerous pathogens that was conducted in Ukraine in the interests of the U.S. Department of Defense. We have information that Pentagon instructed its Ukrainian protégés that, should any incidents occur, they should instantly accuse Russian Armed Forces who allegedly launch strikes against research and medical facilities, or blame it all on “Russian subversive teams”.

Russian Defense Ministry keeps analyzing the biological situation in Ukraine and all incoming materials. What we shared today is a small portion of information that we have. We will share the details shortly as UN SC official documents so that you could study them.

We feel obliged to keep the Security Council updated on the situation with U.S. military-purpose biological activity in Ukraine that creates real risks for international peace and security. We intend to get back to this topic soon.

We would not exclude a possibility of activating mechanisms envisaged by Articles 5 and 6 of the BTWC.

For now, we would like to hear answers of the U.S. side to the questions that we asked.

Thank you.

https://thesaker.is/sitrep-unsc-on-biolabs-in-the-ukraine/

 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

Runup to War in Ukraine - Who Is The Real Aggressor

Vladimir Kozin is not wearing rose colored glasses in this remarkably candid interview. 129,000 Ukrainian troops along Russia's borders joined by mercenaries and Neo-Nazi battalions. All over Russian TV as it is in USA. America continues it's belligerent threats, continues to send millions of dollars of lethal equipment to Kiev, and threatens more sanctions.

 

Russia Prepared To Defend The Motherland

 

В.П. Козин дал интервью «Реджис ТВ-шоу» (США) по актуальным проблемам российско-американских отношений, обосновал необходимость укрепления обороноспособности России перед лицом растущих военных и иных угроз со стороны США и НАТО, подверг критике позицию Вашингтона по контролю над вооружениями (КНВ), предложил Дж. Байдену провести прямые теледебаты по этой проблематике.

Russia and the USA has not fully normalized their relations

April 4, 2025

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s investment envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, visited Washington at the beginning of March. He is the highest Russian official who has traveled to the USA since bilateral diplomatic contacts were suspended in 2022 by Washington. 

Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), participated in the Russian-US talks in Riyadh on February 18, 2025 where both sides agreed to start gradually normalizing their relations severed by the Biden administration. RDIF has been set up a decade ago with the US $10 billion portfolio. It ranks as Russia's sovereign fund.

During his visit he met with Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, and had talks with Republican Senators Lindsey Graham and Markwayne Mullin.

Speaking to reporters on March 3 in the USA, Dmitriev noted that US President Donald Trump and his team have a better understanding of Russia’s stance than his predecessor President Joe Biden.

Different countries are trying to derail this dialogue, derail the restoration of the Russian-American relations,” Dmitriev told reporters. “A lot of people are interested in preventing the development of our relations. We are seeing a coordinated campaign in the media, attempts by various politicians to undermine the relations between Russia and the USA, and attempts to distort the statements made by Russia,” the envoy said. “It happens on a daily basis.” 

In his view, Moscow is seeing absolutely clearly that, unlike President Biden, the Trump administration is determined to resolve the whole spectrum of bilateral issues. Dmitriev noted that the US leaders are very respectful, understanding Russia’s concerns and are finding compromises. “Naturally, there are differences. But there is dialogue, which we believe will help to overcome these differences,” Dmitriev said.

He added that the sides have addressed potential cooperation in the Arctic and the development of rare-earth minerals. “We are actively working on the resumption of direct air flights” between Russia and the USA, he noted. Dmitriev announced that he had discussions about restoring trade and normal business relations between the two sides. “Many American companies would like to replace European companies that have left Russia,” he said, adding that Moscow is ready to work on business projects that would be beneficial to both countries. 


 Dmitriev said that more rounds of talks will be needed to hammer out the deal  


 

Russia was excluded from President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs because existing US sanctions have already severely restricted trade between the two countries, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said. In Russia’s case, he emphasized that the sanctions are already doing the work that tariffs would. Vladimir Putin recently announced that the USA has imposed more than 28,000 different sanctions on Russia.

Speaking to Fox News following the announcement of broad import duties, Bessent explained that Russia, along with Belarus, Cuba, and North Korea, was not targeted under the new measures as the USA does not trade meaningfully with these countries.  E.g. Russian-US trade turnover fell to symbolic $3.5 billion in 2024.

Besides not resolved the direct flights issue, Washington has not returned to Russia six diplomatic and administrative buildings located in the USA taken away from it during the Biden administration in violation of the Vienna Diplomatic Convention.

Russian experts underline that despite the ‘energy truce’ reached between Moscow and Washington on March 18, 2025, former Ukrainian president Volodymir Zelensky has violated it 35 times since March 18 till April 4, while Russia is still committed to it. Russian experts also mention that Washington does not criticize Zelensky for neglecting the ‘energy truce’ by 100 percent.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Russia and the USA intend to improve their damaged relations

 

February 19, 2025

 

First practical initial step down this road

A limited number of top Russian and US diplomats met in Saudi Arabia on February 18, 2025 on a very short meeting that lasted for nearly 4,5 hours.

Major topics

Rebuilding ties, restoring peace: Key takeaways from Russia-US talksThe main topics of the meeting were to explore some key items in the bilateral agenda, including ways to restore diplomatic ties, including the appointment of the respective Ambassadors to their respective capitals, to return diplomatic assets originally seized by the USA in the CONUS, and to lay the groundwork for a potential Summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart, Donald Trump.

Both delegations have examined the ways to stop the war unleashed by Ukraine, and advance efforts toward resolving the Ukraine conflict, initiated by Kiev in April 2014 against Donbass, and in September 2022 against Russia.

As a part of the agreement to initiate the Ukraine conflict settlement process, Russia will appoint its representative to consider the issue once it receives confirmation of Washington’s designated chief negotiator.

Key participants

Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, led the Russian political delegation, which also included Yury Ushakov, Putin’s top foreign policy aide. Kirill Dmitriev, the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), also took part in the separate economic negotiation process with his American counterparts in a separate room.

The American side was represented by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Trump’s national security adviser, Mike Waltz, and Steve Witkoff, Washington’s special envoy for the Middle East.

The meeting in Saudi Arabia was exclusively bilateral gathering of the Russian and American teams during last three years. That is why neither Ukraine nor the EU have been asked to participate in the meeting.

Two high-ranking Saudi officials have been present at the political part of the talks for protocol reasons as representatives of the country who offered their territory for such sensitive talks.

Main results

The sides practically agreed that the issue of diplomatic missions must be resolved once and for all.  This step will include addressing the sanctions imposed in recent years, the expulsion of diplomats, the seizure of diplomatic properties, and other obstacles that have complicated work. Their respective representatives are planned to meet again to discuss the removal of these artificial barriers and ensure the smooth functioning of Embassies and Consulates in both countries.

Moscow made it clear that it considers any NATO-linked military presence – whether under the EU flag or as part of national contingents – completely unacceptable, according to Moscow.

Moscow and Washington have agreed that “when national interests coincide, efforts must be united and implemented” in relevant areas through “mutually beneficial projects” in both geopolitical and economic spheres. However, when interests do not align, the two sides should not provoke a conflict but rather work to resolve the existing issues. Russian team emphasized that NATO expansion and the absorption of Ukraine into the military bloc would pose a direct threat to Russia’s interests and sovereignty.

Though no specific dates and timelines have been set up for the Summit, the two teams agreed to work on its preparation.

Several joint working groups have been established to ameliorate the situation in each respective domain included into the agenda of the talks.

Russia and the USA have agreed to establish a framework for ending the Ukraine conflict in the near future.

Assessment of the meeting

Both sides on very high political level have assessed the talks as very positive and promising.

They noted that the mood at the meeting was businesslike and constructive.

Both sides have clearly stated that they would like to continue to restore their bilateral relations ruined by previous Democratic Party Administration.

President Vladimir Putin has commented on the results of the recent meeting between representatives of Moscow and Washington in Riyadh, assessing it in the positive way. He confirmed that Russia was ready to resume talks on conflict resolution with Ukraine.

Moscow has never shut the door on peace negotiations over Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin said on February 19, 2025 after being briefed on the results of the meeting between Russian and US representatives in Riyadh. It was the EU and Kiev that broke all contact with Russia, he added. No one is excluding Kiev from the negotiation process, according to the Russian president. Both Moscow and Washington expect Ukraine to take part, Putin said, adding that it is largely up to Ukraine and the EU to decide whether they want to be part of the talks or not.

Resolving the Ukraine conflict would be impossible without the normalization of relations between Moscow and Washington, Putin noted. The meeting was primarily aimed at “increasing trust” between the two nations, he announced.

The atmosphere of the talks was “very friendly,” Putin underlined, adding that the USA is represented by “absolutely different people, who are open for talks without any prejudices… and committed to joint work.”

President Donald Trump called the talks in Saudi Arabia “very good” and confessed that he felt “much more confident” after the US-Russia meeting about the prospects of a lasting peace and reiterated that his immediate goal is to “save lives.” “I think I have the power to end this war, and I think it’s going very well.”

Trump noted that he remained optimistic about brokering a peace deal and criticized Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky who had a chance to make a better deal with Moscow three years ago. The US president described Zelensky as deeply unpopular at home. “The leader in Ukraine – I hate to say it – but he’s down at a 4 percent approval rating,” Trump claimed.

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump could meet by the end of February, 2025, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said. He cautioned, however, that the arrangements for a meeting may take longer.  It is true if some declarations or agreements are to be prepared beforehand.

Kiev’s response: frustration and unwise resistance

Ex-president Zelensky who has lost his presidential authority last May has displayed anger and frustration over the talks in Saudi Arabia.

He refused to sign the draft US-Ukrainian accord on offering rare earth minerals to the USA who has shared various kind of assistance to Ukraine amounting, as President Donald Trump has announced, reached US $ 500 billion for the last three years.

He threatened not to leave his former position as the head of state if Ukraine will not become a full-fledged member of the EU and NATO.

He has warned that he would not recognize the results of any kind of Russo-US negotiations.

He ordered to attack Russian Voronezh, Smolensk, Kursk and Zaporozhye Nuclear Powers Plants. Recently, he instructed to hit Ukrainian Chernobyl NPP to influence extra-war mood in the EU and beg additional money he wishes not to return to Europeans.

On February 17, 2025 seven Ukrainian drone severely damaged the critical components of the oil infrastructure located in southern Russia and operated by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which is partly controlled by US and EU companies. The attacked pumping station is located in Krasnodar Region, 230 km from the port city of Novorossiysk. Most of the crude pumped by the conglomerate’s pipeline system comes from oil fields in West Kazakhstan.

Ukrainian drones attack US-linked energy infrastructure    Currently, a number of US companies like American giants Chevron and Exxon Mobil control around 40 percent oil supplies shipped via the pipeline.

   The attack has prompted its operators to resort to a reserve pumping scheme and slash its capacity by 30-40 percent. The Western CPC shareholders are taking part in the damage assessment.

Repairing the facility could take quite a long time.

No doubt that Kiev should pay back reasonable compensation to the US and European contractors for the damaged infrastructure.

Donald Trump has labeled Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky a “dictator without elections,” accusing him of mismanaging the conflict with Russia and misusing American financial aid.

Posting on his Truth Social platform on February 19, Trump criticized Zelensky, stating that the Ukrainian leader had “talked the United States of America into spending US $350 billion, to go into a war that couldn't be won.” He further claimed that Zelensky “refuses to have elections, is very low in Ukrainian polls.” 
“A dictator without elections, Zelenskyy better moves fast or he is not going to have a country left,” Trump warned.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

 

 

Russia has ordered a 72-hour truce with Ukraine

 

May 5, 2025

 

On April 28, 2025 President Vladimir Putin has ordered a 72-hour truce during Ukrainian large-scale aggression against Russia. The aim of the ceasefire is to mark the 80th anniversary of the allied nations’ defeat of the Nazi Germany in 1945.

Putin said he was introducing the truce due to humanitarian considerations,” and ordered the suspension of all military activity against Ukrainian forces on May 8, 9 and 10th.  

The ceasefire announcement stated that “the Russian side reiterates its willingness to enter peace talks without preconditions, with a view to eliminating the root causes behind the Ukraine crisis and establishing constructive interaction with international partners.”

In his turn, ex-president Zelensky threatened to deliver a blow on the military parade to be arranged at that Red Square located in the heart of Moscow. This radically irrelevant person would like to intimidate 21 foreign heads of state and prime ministers who have been invited to see the parade together with war veterans and military men. Ukraine exhibiting ‘classic terrorist behavior’, Russian Foreign Ministry has reacted to such threat. So why is the head of this terrorist state still at large? Indeed, Ukraine is a terrorist state and should be dealt with accordingly. I am very much surprised that after Kiev has made so many terrorist attacks inside Russia, why it has not declared Ukraine as a real terrorist state ruled by terrorist leaders?

It was not a surprise that Zelensky promptly rejected a new Russian offer, like he torpedoed its ‘energy assets attacks ban’ and the ‘Easter truce’.

When I hear such threats from Zelensky I am very much surprised why so many European leaders are backing this unstable creature who has dared not only to deliver a blow on peaceful people during this sacred anniversary, but without any remorse was begging extra weapons at the Vatican Cathedral during funeral of the Pope who advocated peace around the globe.

No doubt, Moscow will respond to Zelensky’s hysteria. There is a nationwide and firm request existing inside the entire Russia.

Russia has sufficient capabilities to successfully complete the Special Military Operation in Ukraine without resorting to nuclear arms, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a recent TV interview.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Russia is ready to deploy Oreshnik in Belarus in 2025

 December 8,2024

  1. Hypersonic MRBM Oreshnik will fire from Belarus

After a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State involving Russia and Belarus held in Minsk on December 6, 2024 President Vladimir Putin said that the newly-produced hypersonic MRBM or Medium-Range Ballistic Missile Oreshnik could be deployed in Belarus in the second half of 2025 as the production of such systems is ratcheted up, as these systems are mass-produced in Russia, and as these missile systems enter service with the Russian Strategic Missile Forces. He immediately announced that in response to his counterpart, President of the Republic of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, who publicly requested such missile system from Moscow in the presence of the press.

Putin reminded that Belarus retained certain infrastructural capabilities from the times of the Soviet Union, so the deployment of such missile systems in Belarus will incur minimal costs to prepare the relevant infrastructure.

He also noted that specialists of the two nations would determine of the minimum range of the missile system with due regard for the security priorities of Belarus. Both presidents agreed that Minsk would choose potential targets for Oreshnik missiles based on its own security needs.

Oreshnik MRBM with multiple warheads was launched for the first time against Ukraine's defense industry facility, the giant Ukrainian Yuzhmash machinery plant, on November 21, 2024 in retaliation to the U.S. and the UK long-range missiles launched deep into the Russian territory. The plant built in Dnepropetrovsk on 175 hectares of land and capable to produce nearly 100 missiles and hundreds missile engines per year has been heavily destroyed.

The decision to deploy Russia’s new Oreshnik hypersonic missiles in Belarus is “a direct response” to U.S. plans to station medium-range missiles in Germany, Minsk's Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Sergey Lagodyuk told BelTA news agency on December 7. During a NATO summit in July 2024, Washington and Berlin announced that the multipurpose U.S. Standard Missile-6 or SM-6, the Tomahawk land-attack cruise missile, and a hypersonic missile still in development would be stationed in Wiesbaden, Germany from 2026 onwards. SM-6 missiles have a range of up to 460 km, while Tomahawk cruise missiles can strike targets more than 2,500 km away, placing them within range of Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other major Russian cities.

Such decision reminds of the NATO ‘double-track’ commitment to deploy Pershing and Tomahawk missiles that have targeted the USSR. It was made in December 1979. It has to be underlined that the U.S. nuclear capabilities have been first deployed in Western Europe much earlier – since the mid 1950s.

During the meeting in Minsk, Putin and Lukashenko also signed the Treaty on Security Guarantees between the two states legalizing to use any kind of weapons against potential enemy.

  1. Developments in Kursk Region

On the December 7, 2024 Russian MoD reported that since the beginning of Ukrainian invasion in Kursk Region (it began on August 6, 2024), the AFU total losses were 38,865 troops, 232 tanks, 169 infantry fighting vehicles, 123 APCs, 1,231 AFVs, 1,096 motor vehicles, 308 artillery guns, 40 MLRS launchers, including 11 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 13 AAD missile launchers and four AAD radars, seven transport-loading vehicles, 72 ECM stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, 27 units of engineering and other military hardware.

The invasion is not successful. It is doomed. It has diminished the AFU role along lines of engagement in Ukraine proper. The drive to neutralize AFU invaders in Kursk Region is in progress.


Food for thought:

Once upon a time Joe Biden threatened Russia to pay a huge price for ‘an aggression’ it never started first.

Now it looks like that the USA and NATO together with Ukraine that have begun a real aggression against Donbass in 2014, and later against Russia in 2022, have already paid a tremendous price


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Russia outlined new principles for employment of its NW

 

September 25, 2024

On September 25, 2024 President Vladimir Putin made a short public statement on new principles for employment of nuclear weapons (NW} by Russia. It was made at the special gathering called the Permanent Meeting on Nuclear Deterrence.  

The highlights of his remarks are as follows.

The draft principles of NW employment expand the category of states and military alliances in relation to which nuclear deterrence is carried out.

Aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, is considered as their joint attack on the Russian Federation.

The use of NW is an extreme measure to protect the country's sovereignty.

It will be used in the event of aggression against Russia and Belarus, if the enemy, using conventional weapons, creates a critical threat to their sovereignty.

Russia will also take inro account the emergence of new sources of military threats and risks for Russia and its allies.

NW will be used upon receipt of reliable information about a massive launch of air and space attack weapons and their crossing of Russia’s state border, including strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic and other flying vehicles.


NOTES: Thus, Moscow has widened the scope and added some new preconditions for using of its national NW. In this context NW means strategic and tactical NW.

1. These updates are mainly linked with a combined direct and unprovoked Ukrainian-NATO aggression against Russia that was started since April 14, 2014, and is widely and qualitatively escalating by them.

2. The newest nuclear strategy will be conditional in nature:

NW will be used if Russia and Belarus are attacked.

3. The updated NW employment strategy will amend the current one enacted in Juny 2020.

4. The newest NW employment strategy will be published and enacted later –

after the relevant presidential decree is signed.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Russia’s stance on the future of the INF Treaty

>>Part I. An overview of the INF treaty<<

>>Part II. US grievances against Russia<<

Will the INF Treaty Be Kept Beyond Its 30th Anniversary? Part III.

Russia feels that the current, inauspicious environment of noncompliance with the INF Treaty is cause for alarm, given Washington’s continued, systematic, and methodical chipping away at this system of global strategic stability.

The onset of that process began in 2002, when Washington unilaterally withdrew from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, which ensured strategic stability through the creation of a strategic balance of offensive and defensive weapons.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has repeatedly criticized the State Department reports, Adherence to and Compliance with Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and Commitments, which, among other things, voiced grievances against Russia owing to the supposed breaches of its commitments under the INF Treaty.

Moscow has primarily taken issue with these documents because they have never offered any specific details to back up these claims, instead merely reiterating the main articles of the 1987 treaty and adding various unproven allegations.

There has never been any clarification of the substance of either the American complaints or the comments of US officials who refer to some sort of “classified intelligence.” For this reason the Russian Foreign Ministry has declared its willingness to help the American diplomats correct this omission, at one time reminding them that objectivity and accuracy should always be prioritized over creative writing.

Russia contends that the “information” that the US previously submitted to Moscow via diplomatic channels, which allegedly should have made it possible for the Russians to identify the missile in question, was in fact incomplete, fragmentary data that in no way clarified the basis for the American complaints. In Russian governmental and political circles, it is a matter of serious concern that representatives of a number of US agencies are using these “facts” as a pretext for trotting out yet another justification for potential “countermeasures” in response to Russian “violations” of the 1987 treaty.

Russia has often stated that the two types of Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles cited by the US as “violations” of the INF Treaty, namely the mobile, ground-based RS-12M or Topol-M (SS-25) missiles, as well as the new RS-26 ICBM also known as the Rubezh, have never been classified as intermediate- or short-range missiles, since their flying range exceeds the maximum ceiling of 5,500 km defined by the Gorbachev-Reagan agreement. For this reason, these two ICBMs are only subject to the terms of a treaty of a different format and content, namely New START, which was signed in 2010.

Likewise, the 1987 agreement is in no way applicable to the operational R-500 missile, nor does that missile have anything to do with that agreement, since its maximum firing range falls below the minimum of 500 km, as defined by that treaty.

Moreover, the Russians have long reminded Washington that it is in fact the US that is breaching its treaty commitments under quite a number of arms-control agreements.

As early as Jan. 4, 2001, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued its first statement noting that the US, in violation of the INF Treaty, has a history of manufacturing a new type of ground-based, medium-range ballistic target missiles, known as Hera, based on the second and third stages of the Minuteman II ICBMs. However, the US side has offered no satisfactory response to this charge yet.

A similar statement, but broader in scope, was made by the Russian Foreign Ministry nine years later. In August 2010, it announced that the US were systematically violating the main provisions of the INF Treaty by using target missiles to fine-tune components of their missile-defense systems that simulate not only ballistic missiles such as Hera, but also LRALTs (long-range air-launch target missiles) and MRTs (medium-range targets). The Russian diplomatic office pointed out that under the 1987 agreement, the launch of such missiles qualifies as a test of a “new type” of intermediate-range land-based missile, which is a violation of Article VI of that treaty.

During the presidencies of Barack Obama and Donald Trump, the United States armed forces have often stated that they have routinely used short-, medium-, and intermediate-range ballistic and cruise missiles (the American side defines medium-range as between 1,000 and 3,000 km, while intermediate-range is 3,000–5,500) as target missiles while conducting operational tests to assess the effectiveness of the interceptors that are part of the US global missile-defense system.

This has been confirmed by official statements made by every director of the Missile Defense Agency of the US Department of Defense since 2001 at hearings before various Senate and House committees. On an ongoing basis since 2001, i.e., since active testing began of missile-defense systems in the US, the Pentagon has conducted 92 tests of its “missile shield,” using a full array of short-, medium-, and intermediate-range ballistic and cruise missiles as targets for its intercept tests.

Similar tests will continue in the US in 2018, and, hence, so will their violations of the INF Treaty, since the same types of dummy missiles of this range will again be used as targets for interception.

Moscow has been reminding Washington that the MK 41 multi-mission launchers used at American missile-defense sites in Romania and Poland that are equipped with the Aegis Ashore command and control system will be used to launch intermediate-range, land-based cruise missiles – a direct violation of the INF Treaty. It is important to remember that similar launchers were positioned in Romania back in May of 2016 and more should be in place in Poland by December of 2018.

US combat drones, which can also be loaded into the MK 41 launchers, are another problem for the INF Treaty, as they meet the 1987 agreement’s definition of land-based cruise missiles. The United States has added drones (also known as “unmanned aerial vehicles,” or UAVs) such as the Predator, Raptor, Global Hawk, and others to its arsenal, which under the treaty are all classified as ground-based cruise missiles, regardless of the fact that they were produced and pressed into service after that agreement had been signed. Heavy UAVs of this type, which carry aircraft ordnance, clearly qualify as aerodynamic missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 km, which are prohibited by the INF Treaty.

In the future it might well be possible to load “dual-capable” launchers of this type with the high-precision, hypersonic weaponry developed by the Pentagon for its Prompt Global Strike program.

The US has repeatedly provided official confirmation of the fact that it is using short-, medium-, and intermediate-range missiles as targets to test the effectiveness of its interceptor missile-defense systems.

The US claims that it takes too much time to reload the designated weapons and to change the computer programs required for their launch do not ring true, given the fact that similar types of US Navy sea-based launchers are loaded simultaneously with four types of missiles for various purposes, namely anti-surface, anti-aircraft, anti-submarine, and land attack missiles. No one has to specifically go in and change the electronic programming in order to fire them under combat conditions. That is already included for each missile.

Two central themes can be seen in the attempts of the US side to accuse Russia of “violating” the 1987 treaty: one is designed for a domestic audience, while the other is intended for external consumption.

The domestic motif consists of distracting attention from both the tests of the newest US ballistic missile defense systems as well as from the production of a new intermediate-range, land-based cruise missile.

Prior to the 2016 US presidential election, the Republican lawmakers’ second motif at home was their desire to pressure the Democratic Party by demanding that Barack Obama identify at any cost the ways in which Russia had violated the INF Treaty.

But once Donald Trump won the election, new faces stepped forward to play the part of the accusers: now the Democrats were the ones heaping abuse on the Republican administration of Donald Trump, claiming that it was not offering a robust response to Russia’s “violations” of the 1987 treaty.

The recurring themes in the foreign policy of the Republican and Democratic congressmen were evident in their attempts to use any means to prevent the Russian Federation from getting highly effective intercontinental missiles that could reliably prevail over any type of integrated American and transatlantic anti-missile system: both by employing a missile-defense system, in the form of sea- and land-based interceptors, that steady advances on the borders of Russia and other states, as well as by relying on the ground-based system that has long been deployed inside the continental US.

This can be seen in the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act,, which has its sights squarely set on Russia’s RS-26 ICBM. And one way to get rid of it – which Washington is already using – is easily evident: first, Moscow is forced to believe that the US is prepared to produce a new ground-launched cruise missile, but then Washington is apparently willing to abandon that venture if the Russians will get rid of an already existing missile of an entirely different class. But the days when an obvious trick like that would have worked are long past.

It can also be presumed that the song and dance about Moscow’s alleged ongoing violations of the 1987 treaty is an attempt by the US to distract the global community from the problem of the Americans’ ongoing stockpiling of tactical nuclear weapons on the European continent, despite the fact that Russia already withdrew all its nuclear weapons of that class from three former Soviet republics (Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine) back in the mid-1990s.

The question then arises: why does President Donald Trump need such a clearly counterproductive brouhaha over these unproven Russian violations of the INF Treaty, not to mention the array of threats that no high-ranking American officials had ever before issued in such an openly provocative way? One gets the impression that they are advancing contrived accusations against Russia only to divert attention from the American violations listed above, creating a kind of “smokescreen.”

Clearly there is another, more dangerous implication, when viewed from a foreign-policy perspective.

Washington is looking for a chance to launch a first nuclear strike – without repercussions – against Russia, China, Iran, and other states with their own views about the future world order. The White House, as the American press has noted, is considering three options for its military response to Russia’s INF “violations”: developing defensive, i.e., anti-ballistic systems; launching a preemptive strike against any weapons that violate the treaty; and using “nuclear weapons to destroy military targets” on enemy territory.

At the same time, it must be remembered that US strategic nuclear forces are retaining their same offensive doctrine that allows for a first preemptive or preventative nuclear strike against a whole group of states, while unconstrainedly expanding the capability of their global missile-defense system.

It’s a safe bet that America’s threatening actions within the context of the implementation of the INF Treaty will prompt countermeasures from many states and will heighten the risk of conflicts. When one side makes flagrantly destabilizing moves without taking into account the other side’s security interests, it is natural to see some pushback. As a result, once the balance of power and the strategic equation are restored, it is at a more weaponized level and the balance that is achieved is more precarious. This means a higher risk of a revival of military confrontations such as were seen in Berlin and Cuba.

Russia is still happy to take a look at any tangible evidence that is giving the Americans reason to believe that Moscow has “violated” something under the 1987 treaty. But Moscow has no intention whatsoever of breaking this treaty, which for the last 30 years has been inhibiting the potentially dangerous proliferation of two classes of nuclear weapons within the arsenals of the world’s leading nuclear powers.

In light of the current situation, Russia has plans for discussions with the US on a whole range of substantive issues related to reducing armaments and limiting military interactions between Russia and the United States.

These “other substantive issues” include:

• the fact that since the summer of 2014 all three types of American strategic heavy bombers – the B-1B, B-52H, and B-2A – have been stationed in Europe and have taken part in various NATO military exercises

• the fact that the US is equipping its strategic delivery vehicles with conventionally-armed cruise missiles (four Ohio-class submarines have already been converted, giving each of them the capacity to carry up to 154 such missiles)

• the cache of American tactical nuclear weapons in Europe and Asia that are being radically updated and furnished with more advanced delivery systems

• the potential deployment in Romania and Poland of not only US ground-based missile-defense systems in multi-mission launchers, but also interceptors, long-range cruise missiles, and long-range high-precision hypersonic weapons

• NATO’s significant advantage over Russia in terms of general-purpose forces, the positioning of new military bases and heavy weapons near Russia’s borders, and also the staging of large-scale military exercises of an offensive nature

• the prevention of any weaponization of space.

There are also other issues Moscow might bring up with Washington that are directly tied to the American attempts to avoid resolving a whole host of other arms-control problems. And that includes more than a dozen genuine grievances over US noncompliance with current treaties and agreements, in addition to those problems for which they make no effort to find solutions based on the principle of equality and equal security for all sides.

At the same time, Moscow is still prepared to hold an honest and substantive dialog with the Americans in order to allay any concerns over arms control, which would include any misgivings related to the INF Treaty.

As has been repeatedly pointed out at the highest levels of the Russian government, (in particular, during the Valdai International Discussion Forum in Sochi on Oct. 19, 2017), Moscow does not intend to initiate the termination of the current INF Treaty, but it will respond commensurately should the US move to do so.

Written by Vladimir KozinSource: OrientalReview

SITREP -Ukraine - False Flags - Russian Humanitarian Aide

Vladimir Kozin gave an interview to the Regis TV show (USA) on the issue of the military operation in Ukraine, Mariupol VIPs and Russian Humanitarian Aide.

Sixteen major differences between Moscow and Kiev in their military operations and conflict resolution

                                                                                                                                    

October 8, 2024

 

ISSUE

RUSSIAN STANCE

UKRAINIAN STANCE

 

1

When operation or aggression began, and by whom

Russia began its defensive military operation against Ukrainian aggression on February 24, 2022

Ukraine began its military aggression initially against Donbass on April 14, 2014 and on February 17, 2022; and against Russia in September 2022

 

2

Use of weapons against civilians

Russia has no intention to use weapons against civilians

Ukraine intentionally uses weapons against civilians

 

3

Use of chemical weapons

(adherence to Chemical Weapons Convention)

Russia never used chemical weapons

Ukraine used chemical weapons more than 400 times and violated CWC

 

4

Use of biological weapons

(adherence to Biological Weapons Convention)

Russia never used biological (bacteriological) and toxic weapons

Ukraine used biological (bacteriological) weapons and violated BWC

 

5

Use of cluster munitions

Russia never used cluster munitions

Ukraine uses cluster munitions

 

6

Use of depleted uranium

Russia never used munitions with depleted uranium (DU)

  Ukraine constantly uses shells with DU in artillery and tank shells

 

7

Attack on nuclear power plants

Russia never attacked Ukrainian nuclear power plants (NPP), and has no desire to resort to such actions

Ukraine attacked two Russian NPP: Zaporozhskaya NPP more than 100 times and Kurskaya NPP 4 times

 

8

Source of weapons it uses

Russia produces weapons by itself; it relies on its national defense industrial complex. Russia is against foreign arms deliveries to Ukraine

Ukraine relies on NATO and non-NATO

military industrial complex; it gets weapons from nearly 50 countries. Ukraine demands more lethal arms

 

9

Treatment of prisoners of war

Russia treats Ukrainian POW in accordance with Geneva Conventions on POW

Ukraine violates Geneva Conventions on POW; it has tortured and beaten Russian POW many times

 

10

Efforts to end aggression

Russia wishes to end Ukrainian aggression and prepared a draft peace treaty with Ukraine (2022)

Ukraine has no desire to end its aggression; it blocked the initialed draft treaty with Russia (2022)

 

11

Major aims

Major Russian aims in its Special Military Operation: demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine

Major Ukrainian aims in its aggression:

to eliminate population in five territories that joined Russia, and to inflict to it “strategic defeat”

 

12

Ukrainian membership in NATO

Russia is against any kind of Ukrainian membership in NATO

Ukraine is in favor of its full-fledged admission into NATO as soon as possible

 

13

De-escalation or intensification of conflict

Russia is in favor of de-escalation of the conflict with Ukraine

Ukraine is in favor of intensification of the conflict with Russia

 

14

Deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine

Russia is against deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine

Ukraine is in favor of deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine

 

15

Delivery of dual capable aircraft (DCA) F-16 to Ukraine

Russia is against delivery of DCA aircraft F-16 to Ukraine

Ukraine demands to deliver more than 120 DCA aircraft F-16 to its Air Forces. Several such aircraft have already arrived  

 

 

 

16

Getting and using long-range NATO missiles deep into Russian territory by Ukraine

Russia is against getting and using long-range NATO missiles deep into Russian territory by Ukraine. Russia made its updated nuclear strategy much tougher to prevent this

Ukraine insists on getting and using long-range NATO missiles deep into Russian territory. Ukraine neglected the fact that Russia toughened its updated nuclear strategy to prevent this

 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

Space Race, Militarization of Space, Imminent War in Space

Владимир Козин и Брюс Ганьон, два эксперта по космическим вооружениям и милитаризации космоса, считают, что мы сталкиваемся с серьезными опасностями. Во-первых, нас всех терроризируют по поводу этого неминуемого вторжения России в Украину. Но, вдобавок ко всему, существует неминуемая угроза начала войны в космосе. Вам страшно? Так и должно быть.


В.П. Козин: «Человечество сталкивается с тремя видами гонок вооружений: ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и космических. Первая унаследована с 1945 года, вторая началась в 2009 году, третья была запущена НАТО в январе 2022 года. Эти явления не могут быть устранены выборочно. Они должны предотвращаться одновременно».

 


Американская независимая ТВ-компания «Реджис-шоу». Эфир от 21 января 2022г. 

Special Report # 50. Provocation vs Russia: blaiming it for using WMD

April 23, 2022

1. Fared statements against Russia

The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation possesses the information related to the preparation of provocations by the United States of America in order to accuse the Russian Armed Forces of using chemical, biological or tactical nuclear weapons. This plan has already been developed and represents a response to the success of Russia in conducting the special military operation.

Only in March and April senior officials of the Western countries have been making regular provocative ‘warning’ statements. The mass media propagate the points about the possibility of using weapons of mass destructions by Russia.

For example, the National Security Advisor J. Sullivan has commented on Biden’s words that the USA “in kind” to the possible use of weapons of mass destructions by our country. And on February 27 the American permanent representative to the UN Greenfield announced an intention of Russia to use any instruments ‘under a false flag’, including chemical and biological weapons for intimidating the Ukrainian population and the international community.

Against this background, the US State Department considered positively the transfer of up to 400 sets of personal protection equipment, 390 NBC reconnaissance devices and 15 ‘Stryker’ reconnaissance vehicles.

2. Examples of falsification

Russia informed that this kind of projects has already been implemented many times by the USA for achieving its goals. The most vivid example of an information provocation is the speech of the US Secretary of State Colin Powell on February 5, 2003. The vial with laundry detergent in his hands provided a pretext to invade Iraq and caused death of half a million civilians.

In 2017, the widely spread photographs of the ‘White Helmets’ that showed people taking samples in a site of the alleged sarin attack and using simple gauze bandages, while the people standing around lacked any personal protection equipment, caused a missile attack on Shayrat airfield in Syria.

And in 2018, a staging of the Syrian children who had been allegedly poisoned by chlorine caused the destruction of a scientific research centre in Barzeh and Jamra. Only the testimony of the witnesses of those developments who had been brought by the Russian Federation to the Hague have opened the eyes of the international community to these events.

Until now, no one has been held accountable for these provocations.

3. Staging scenarios

Nowadays there are three scenarios to be applied in order to accuse the Russian Federation.

A. The first one is a ‘staged incident under a false flag’ that is the most probable.

This could include a real use of chemical and biological weapons that would cause deaths among the population or staging ‘sabotages’ from Russia at the facilities of Ukraine involved in the development of components for weapons of mass destruction.

The abovementioned scenario can be implemented in the chemical and biological facilities located in Kharkov and Kiev. There also may occur a provocation in the nuclear energy facilities: above all others, it could refer to Zaporozhie Nuclear Power Station controlled by the Russian Federation. On April, 21, a convoy of 10 motor vehicles that was transporting dangerous goods to the nuclear station was stopped and turned about to Zaporozhie.

In addition, the leadership of Ukraine is seriously considering striking at the radioactive waste storage facility at the former Pridneprovsky Chemical Plant in the village of Kamenskoye in Dnipropetrovsk Region. The Ministry of Defense has documents confirming the critical condition of the storage facility and the inappropriate spending of funds allocated by the European Union for the maintenance of the facility.

B. The second one refers to a ‘Maximally covert use of weapons of mass destruction in small volumes’ for neutralising the will power and the capacity to resist within the fulfilment of a particular operational task.

This scenario was supposed to be implemented in ‘Azovstal’. But the order of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief to cancel the assault of the entity has frustrated the plans of the Pentagon.

C. The third and the least probable one is the ‘overt use of weapons of mass destruction at a combat area’ in case of failure to succeed in using conventional armaments in the combat zone.

This scenario was considered for Slavyansk and Kramatorsk that had been transformed into fortified towns.

The high probability of staging the application of chemical arms is confirmed by the facts of the supply of antidotes with toxic substances to Ukraine. Only in 2022, on request of the Ministry of Healthcare of Ukraine, more than 220 thousand of vials with atropines. This fact is an evidence of a targeted preparation of a provocation that includes the use of toxic nerve-paralytic substances.

4. Incidents investigation

The US State Department has already determined the procedure of investigation and has assigned the officials who will be responsible for its implementation.

The chemical incidents will be investigated by the attributive staff of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons that permits to fabricate the necessary proofs and to sentence the responsibility as it can be seen fit.

It will be essential to gather evidence at the scene (sampling, questioning of witnesses, photo- and videographic documenting).

The investigative mechanism applied to the cases of possible use of biological weapons will be put in operation with the authorisation of the UN Secretary-General that determines the expert panel basing on his own preferences.

It is planned to involve the Red Cross International Committee representatives equipped with means of personal protection and indication to operate in the combat zones to which the NATO representatives will have no access.

5. Staging results

Staged use of WMD is aimed at accusing Russia of using prohibited weapons with the subsequent implementation of the so-called «Syrian scenario», in which the state is subjected to economic and political isolation, as well as exclusion from international organizations, including the UN Security Council.

A possible way forward is to put pressure on the countries loyal to and friendly to the Russian Federation, including India and China, to compel them to impose sanctions on our country.

We would like to recall that the Russian Federation completely destroyed its chemical arsenal on September 27, 2017, which is confirmed by an OPCW certificate. In turn, the USA, with its strong financial, economic and technical potential, is the only country party to the Chemical Weapons Convention that still possesses an impressive arsenal of chemical warfare agents (672.5 tons).

CIA Director Burns' statement about Russia's possible use of tactical nuclear weapons is absurd. With the current level of technical equipment of the international nuclear test monitoring system, it is impossible to conceal the use of such weapons. If the CIA director does not understand this, then he is either unprofessional, or he is being misled.

The biological weapons programs in the USSR were completely phased out in 1972. At the same time, the number of U.S. biological laboratories is incomparable to other countries. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Washington controls 336 laboratories in 30 countries, which is of great concern.

6. Features of the U.S. legislation

Note, that contrary to its international obligations, the U.S. has retained domestic legislation that permits biological weapons work.

The United States ratified the 1925 Geneva Protocol with a number of reservations, one of which allows for the retaliatory use of chemical and toxin weapons.

Under the U.S. «Uniting and Strengthening America to Obstruct Terrorism Act» research into biological weapons is permitted with the approval of the U.S. government. Participants in such research are not criminally liable for developing such weapons.

Given the blocking by the United States of any international initiatives to verify the Biological (Toxin) Weapons Convention, there are prerequisites for violating international agreements on the non-proliferation of biological weapons.

7. The use of unmanned aerial vehicles

Russia has noted earlier that Ukraine had sent a request to the manufacturing company about the possibility of equipping the Bayraktar drones with aerosol attachments.

It is a matter of concern that on 9 March Russian reconnaissance units in Kherson Region discovered three unmanned aerial vehicles equipped with 30-litre containers and equipment for spraying formulations.

According to available data, in January 2022, Ukraine purchased more than 50 such devices through intermediary organizations, which can be used to apply biological formulations and toxic chemicals.

On April 21st, 2022, a container with ampoules was dropped onto the position of Russian troops from a drone. It was planned that their destruction would cause a chemical reaction that would cause an explosion and fire, releasing toxic substances not included in the convention lists.

With regard to the contents of the ampoules, a chemical analysis is carried out in laboratory 27 of the Scientific Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense, accredited by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the results of the analysis will be sent to its Technical Secretariat in the prescribed manner.

8. WMD

In addition, it is appropriate to stress that today the USA is the only state in world history that has used all three types of weapons of mass destruction.

The dropped nuclear bombs during the Second World War on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the use of toxic chemicals in Vietnam and Iraq - all these crimes were not properly assessed by relevant international organizations.

Thus, in an attempt to discredit the special military operation of the Russian troops, the Kyiv regime, at the suggestion of the American administration, is able to implement scenarios in the near future that will lead to the death of tens of thousands of Ukrainian citizens and cause an environmental and humanitarian catastrophe.

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Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Special report # 40. Ukrainian staged performance at Bucha

April 12th, 2022

1. Findings by TURKISH NEWSPAPER “AYDINLIK” dated April 7th, 2022 posted at 01:00

Source: aydinlik.com.tr (https://www.aydinlik.com.tr/haber/new-york-timesin-bucada-rusyayi-suclayan-uydu-goruntuleri-gercege-uymadi-309597

(NOTE: COMPUTARIZED TRANSLATION from turkish language)

Satellite images of the New York Times accusing Russia of this did not correspond to reality

It turned out that the satellite images dated March 9-11, which the American newspaper New York Times showed as evidence of the so-called 'Russian massacre' in Buça, belonged to April 1, that is, 2 days after the Russians left the city

The delegations of Russia and Ukraine held an important meeting in Istanbul on March 29. According to Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, this is the first time meaningful progress has been made in these negotiations. Immediately after the meeting, Russia decided to withdraw troops from some regions. One of them was the city of Buça around Kiev.

On March 30, Russian soldiers left Buça. On March 31, the Mayor of Bucha also confirmed this.

Then Ukrainian neo-Nazi groups entered the city.

Until April 3, those broadcasting from the city did not mention the bodies on the streets, nor did they photograph one body. But on April 3, it was suddenly claimed that the streets of the city were filled with civilian corpses, mass graves were found, and 410 civilians were massacred. Thus, the West gave the start for a familiar operation.

Independent investigators have captured significant deficits in satellite images that have trashed the NYT's claims. First of all, the satellite of Maxar had passed over the region on February 28 and April 1, and not on March 9-11. So, on March 9-11, the satellite was at a completely different coordinate. The fact that the satellite image of the NYT belongs to April 1, not March, has also been confirmed by meteorological data. Because the torrential rainfall that continued in the region from March 31 to April 1 was reflected in the images as sandy alluvium. On the other hand, the NYT wrote that in another image, the shadows on February 28 and the shadows on March 19 are exactly the same. However, it turned out that the shadows on February 28 are the same as those on April 1. The SunCalc program has determined the exact time of the image and the direction of the shadows based on the angle of inclination of the Sun above the horizon. According to a satellite image published by the NYT, the sun's angle is 42 degrees (see PPT).

This means that the image was taken at 11:57 GMT on April 1. That is, until 2 days after the Russians left the city.

SOME MORE QUESTIONS FROM INDEPENDENT EXPERTS:

1. It is very strange that all “killed” persons were on the ground with their faces down. In order not to show them to the general public?

2. If is strange that after being “killed some days ago” as Kiev claims, there are no codaveric spots on them (on hands and faces, etc.). Forensic expert has a lot of questions on all these “facts”, and claims that the performance arranged by Kiev at Bucha was staged with “a mediocre quality”. He noted eight controversies in eight photos made by Western photographer (https://smolnarod.ru/sn/incidents/smolenskij-sudmedekspert-prokommentiroval-snimki-s-trupami-iz-buchi/)

3. It is strange that their names and approximate ages have not been announced by Kiev.

4. It is strange that no official and independent investigation of the “tragedy” have been announced. Has Kiev conducted such investigation or any international organizations?

5. It is strange that the reasons and the timing of their “death” have not been announced.

6. It has not been said by Kiev what type of bullets have been used by killers (or by any other means)?

7. It is strange that all those “killed” had white ribbons over their arms as a symbol of Russian troops in Ukraine or Ukrainians citizens loyal to Russia. Does it mean that those people have been killed in reality by the Armed Forces of Ukraine as Ukrainian “enemies”?

8. It is strange that they have been buried very promptly in the presence of some foreign VIP.

CONCLUSION: THIS “TRAGEDY” HAS BEEN STAGED BY KIEV DELIBERATELY IN ORDER TO CREATE NEGATIVE IMAGE OF RUSSIA, AND TO GET MORE ARMS FROM NATO AND THE EU TO COINTINUE AGGRESSION VS DONBASS


FOOD FOR THOUGHT

A primitive lie at the state level leads to its repetition and permissiveness, until it is revealed and refuted professionally


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

 

The Collapse Of The INF Treaty: The US Spreads Disinformation And Raises The Threat

On 18 August, at 2.30 pm Pacific time, the Pentagon conducted a flight test of the new experimental Tomahawk-class GLCM-X ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM), launching it from St. Nicolas Island, California. The test was successful. Flying over 500 km, the missile ‘accurately impacted its target’. The experiment was the first range test of a US GLCM that would have been banned under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty).

The missile tests took place just 16 days after the process unilaterally initiated by Washington to denounce the INF Treaty was completed in early August. Commenting on the tests, Lieutenant Colonel Robert Carver, a Pentagon spokesperson, said that the missile was the fourth variant of the Tomahawk Land Attack Cruise Missile and was launched using the Mk 41 Vertical Launching System. ‘After the United States suspended its obligations under the INF Treaty in February 2019, the Department of Defense began the conceptual design of ground-based cruise missile systems and ballistic missiles,’ RIA Novosti quoted the Pentagon spokesperson as saying.

According to Carver, Washington had previously warned that, after its withdrawal from the INF Treaty, it would engage in the research and development of non-nuclear ground-based ballistic and cruise missiles. The Pentagon spokesperson also told RIA Novosti that the launch of the cruise missile demonstrates ‘US commitment to this research and development’.

He added that the testing of non-nuclear ground-based cruise missiles is in the early stages and that it will be years before the system is ready for deployment. It was also reported that the Pentagon will continue to test such missile systems as needed.

According to Carver, the launcher tested during the GLCM tests is not a copy of the Aegis Ashore missile defence system, which is to say the ground-based Aegis missile defence system currently operating in Romania and also under construction in Poland. ‘Aegis Ashore is purely defensive,’ declared the Pentagon spokesperson. ‘It is not capable of firing a Tomahawk missile. Aegis Ashore is not configured to fire offensive weapons of any type.’

According to the US military, all the data collected during the GLCM flight test on 18 August will be used to create mostly intermediate-range missiles, which were previously prohibited under the INF Treaty. It is expected that the US will conduct several more tests of intermediate-range ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles before the end of the year. As recently stated by new US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, after the US withdraws from the INF Treaty, it will begin the large-scale development of missile systems of this class.

Unfortunately, none of these US representatives have acknowledged that the development of new dual-use (i.e. can be equipped with nuclear and non-nuclear warheads) intermediate-range ballistic and cruise missiles was, and remains, the only reason for America’s withdrawal from a treaty that the country’s previous leaders referred to as ‘a cornerstone of global security’.

Washington’s commitment to creating new ground-based mobile and stationary intermediate-range missiles for their subsequent deployment in Europe and the Asia-Pacific Region has been under close watch for many years. Testing the effectiveness of such missiles actually began at the same time as the development of forward-based missile defence systems, that is, missile defence systems not located within the continental United States but deployed far beyond its borders and closer to the territory of potential enemies. The Pentagon has been actively using six types of new intermediate-range and shorter-range ballistic and cruise training missiles to test its interceptor missile defence systems since October 1999.

In July 2017, so two years before the US actually began its withdrawal from the INF Treaty, the House of Representatives, the lower house of the United States Congress, voted to allocate funds for the development of a new intermediate-range GLCM that would have definitely fallen under the restrictions of the treaty. In September of the same year, the decision was also given the support of the US Senate.

In view of these two facts, the statement by the Pentagon spokesperson quoted above that the US Department of Defense only ‘began the conceptual design of ground-based cruise missile systems and ballistic missiles’ after the US suspended its obligations under the INF Treaty in February 2019 is clearly misleading.

Assertions by the US military that the launchers of US ground-based missile defence systems operational in Romania since May 2016 and similar systems that will appear in Poland next year cannot launch Tomahawk missiles are disinformation.

They can launch Tomahawk missiles, in fact, and they can do it without any real problem. The universal launchers would not even need any structural changes. Incidentally, US ships equipped with the Aegis naval combat information and management system can launch four types of missiles from the same Mk 41 launchers: interceptor and air defence missiles, as well as anti-ship and anti-submarine missiles. Standard-3 interceptor missiles and Tomahawk GLCMs have virtually the same measurements, for example, while the command posts of these two systems have pre-installed software, allowing the US to launch any offensive or defensive missiles from these universal launchers. For this reason, America’s new and existing ground-based operational systems in Europe and the Asia-Pacific Region will be and are combined strategic offensive and defensive structures in the US and NATO’s ‘forward-based’ combat weapons system.

Regarding the software for US missile defence systems in Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin made particular reference to this during a working visit to Helsinki on 21 August when he expressed doubt that the US would even inform its European partners about the software that would be used in these systems. ‘This entails new threats for us that we must react to,’ noted the Russian president. It should also be borne in mind that there are already operational US missile defence systems in Romania and there will soon be such systems in Poland under America’s complete and independent control. All this is food for thought.

In addition, Washington has not given a positive response to Moscow’s proposal that both Russia and the US refuse to be the first to deploy intermediate-range and short-range missiles in any region of the world. And this is also food for thought.

Along the same lines, a direct question should be put to Washington: why, on page 33 of the new ABM Strategy approved this year by the current US administration, does it suddenly say that their active missile defence system will destroy the nuclear missiles of a potential enemy not just shortly after their launch, but before the launch order has even been given?

Explanations by high-ranking US representatives that the mostly intermediate-range ballistic and ground-based cruise missiles being created in the US will not be equipped with nuclear warheads are not true. This is also disinformation. They will be, because they are inherently ‘dual-use’ missiles.

Thus, Washington’s disinformation campaign continues, along with its false statements that Russia ‘violated’ the INF Treaty. In a report published by the US State Department on the eve of the launch of the new GLCM, there was yet another clumsy attempt to blame Moscow rather than Washington for the treaty’s collapse. This document was published for a reason. It was just more propaganda cover for the flight test of the new GLCM.

But a fact remains a fact: the US has still not provided the global community with any real proof of these violations. It also recently included China on the list of countries to blame, saying that it was the reason for Washington’s withdrawal from the treaty, but this is not true either, since Beijing was never a party to the treaty.

In short, the US is still stringing together one piece of disinformation after another.

Speaking at a meeting with the permanent members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation on 23 August, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that the Tomahawk cruise missile tests conducted by the US are ‘no improvisation, but the latest link in a long-planned chain’. In this regard, he ordered the country’s Ministry of Defence, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other relevant departments to ‘study the level of threat posed by these US actions’ and ‘take exhaustive measures to prepare a symmetrical response’.

Written by Vladimir Kozin, Source: Oriental Review

The INF And New START Treaties: America’s Shady Game With Dire Consequences

Statements by various US officials suggest that America is pursuing a destructive policy not only with regard to the INF Treaty, but the New START Treaty as well.

Over the past few years, America has met with Russian diplomatic representatives around 30 times to discuss the issue, initially trying to use the open-ended treaty to unjustifiably force Moscow to get rid of its R-500 cruise missile and two intercontinental ballistic missiles – the Topol-M and the Rubezh. None of these weapons fell under the range restrictions of the treaty, however, which eliminated intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles with ranges of between 500 and 5500 km.

Recently, Washington has started to make similar demands regarding Russia’s latest development, the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, as well as its 9M729 cruise missile, which cannot be restricted by the treaty. Thus, the US State Department has called for Russia to either abandon the missile or change its range so that it is not in violation of the INF Treaty. This missile does not fall under the range restrictions of the treaty either, however, a fact about which the US has been thoroughly informed.

Also bizarre is US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s ultimatum that if Moscow does not start complying with the 1987 treaty within the next two months, then Washington will stop adhering to its obligations. Such an ultimatum is already itself a violation of article XV of the treaty, which states that if either party decides to withdraw from the treaty, then it shall give notice to the other party six months prior to its withdrawal from the treaty, not two.

It should be noted that since June 2012, when US legislators began pushing the issue of Russia’s non-compliance with the INF Treaty, Washington has not presented either its NATO allies or Moscow with any convincing evidence that Russia has violated the treaty.

Russia, meanwhile, has serious grounds for claiming that Washington has actually violated it. “Perspectives of the 1987 INF Treaty”, an English-language white paper published in Russia at the start of 2018, cited the number of such violations for the first time. According to the publication, the US has violated the treaty 92 times. It is important to clarify that this number does not include tests carried out to check the interception accuracy of US Patriot air defence systems.

To date, the total number of US violations of the INF Treaty over the last 17 years has already increased to 95.

The last of these took place in the Pacific Ocean on 26 October 2018, when an intermediate-range missile was successfully intercepted by a US Navy missile defence system. All of this information is cited in publicly available press releases released by the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency, which, since 2001, has been regularly testing the interceptors of its missile defence system using intermediate-range and shorter-range ballistic and cruise missiles prohibited under the INF Treaty as targets.

The US will continue to test the effectiveness of its anti-missile shield and so will continue to violate the 1987 treaty.

With a considerable list of INF Treaty violations, America is still insisting on misleading its NATO allies and the global community as a whole. At the same time, it is trying to destroy the INF Treaty while heaping all the blame on Russia.

Washington also needs to give Moscow and its NATO partners a direct, honest answer to the following questions: did the US destroy 846 intermediate-range and shorter-range ballistic and cruise missile according to the terms of the INF Treaty; and, if these were all actually destroyed, has the US created new missiles of these two classes?

In addition, it seems that Washington not only wants to tear up its 1987 treaty with Moscow, but also the New START Treaty, another important bilateral agreement that expires in February 2021.

Opinions on the treaty vary within US President Donald Trump’s administration. The US president himself believes that the treaty is preventing America from both modernising its strategic offensive nuclear weapons and from creating a new strategic nuclear triad. In support of this position, Republican senator Tom Cotton and Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney have introduced a bill that restricts the treaty from being extended for a further five years, as previously negotiated by Barack Obama, following its expiration in 2021.

Washington is clearly preparing the ground for the collapse of the New START Treaty. This is particularly true when you consider the statement by Joseph Dunford, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, that Moscow’s non-compliance with the INF Treaty has placed the extension of the New START Treaty in doubt.

On the other hand, Heather Nauert, Spokesperson for the US Department of State, recently gave a positive assessment of the New START Treaty, noting that it makes relations with Russia more stable and also improves the security of America and its allies.

It seems that Washington is also divided when it comes to the article stating that each side must limit the number of its nuclear warheads to 1550 and the number of its deployed and non-deployed launchers to 800.

Meanwhile, it should be noted that, in order to comply with the quantities determined by the New START Treaty, America spent two years re-equipping part of its strategic nuclear weapons (4 launchers on each of its 14 Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines and its 41 B-52H heavy bombers) and unilaterally excluded these from the treaty. This means that America can quickly increase the potential of its strategic nuclear forces and the number of its warheads to more than 1200.

In short, the country is playing a shady game with regard to the INF and New START treaties that could have dire consequences.

Russia is not ruling out the possibility of discussing the conditions for extending the New START Treaty for another five years, that is, until 2026, but the “conditions”, not the automatic extension of the treaty, and especially not at any cost.

It seems that the decision on its extension will depend on more than just Washington’s full and scrupulous compliance with the INF Treaty.

Given the link recognised by the US between strategic offensive nuclear weapons and strategic defence systems, and also taking into account a number of other types of weapons that have a direct impact on global strategic stability, there are another four objective facts in this regard that it would be wrong to ignore, namely:

– the deployment of forward-based weapons on Russia’s borders by the US and its allies in the form of US ABM bases and warehouses containing tactical nuclear weapons;

– the creation of new airborne delivery systems, including to strengthen NATO’s Baltic air-policing mission being carried out in the skies over three Baltic states that has been using dual-capable aircraft for the past 14 years;

– the build-up of general purpose forces equipped with heavy weapons throughout almost the whole of Europe, but especially in the north, east and south; and

– the Pentagon’s steady move towards deploying strike weapons in outer space.

It is important to note that this is all part of America’s current nuclear strategy, which envisages a first nuclear strike on a whole range of countries.

Unfortunately, Washington has ignored Russia’s suggestions intended to address the issues surrounding the INF and New START treaties.

The US must fully comply with the INF and New START treaties without any preconditions and ultimatums on the basis of a fundamental principle that has existed since time immemorial: pacta sunt servanda (“agreements must be kept”). What it must not do is wriggle out of them using flimsy pretexts and blame others for their own “non-compliance”.

Written by Vladimir Kozin, Source: Oriental Review.

The Liberation of Ukraine - Will Sanctions Hurt Russia - Protests in Russia

Vladimir Kozin with another report on the progress of the liberation of Ukrane from the USA and Nazis. Also, will the sanctions hurt Russia? What about those protests in Russia against Putin.


Vladimir P. Kozin: «The unconditional surrender of Ukraine with the complete cessation of its hostilities should be the main goal and the main content of the negotiations between Moscow and Kiev».

 


 

The Munich Security Report: once again, no solution to arms-control issues

On the eve of the annual Munich Security Conference, which will be held this year from February 16-18, its organizers have published the traditional Munich Security Report under the very alarmist title: “To the Brink – and Back?”  The document was prepared based on studies conducted by a large number of analysts from well-known international research institutions.

According to the chairman of the conference, the German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger, over the past year the world has come too close to the brink of significant conflict, which apparently explains the first part of the report’s title.  Some current events cited as examples are the precipitous decline in US-North Korean relations and the ongoing friction between NATO and Russia, as well as such “problems” as climate change and cybersecurity.

Yet only four of the 88 pages of the report are devoted to the absolutely critical agenda of reducing and controlling nuclear weapons.

The authors of the document welcome the fact that last year 122 states voted to adopt the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.  But yet they note that the process of forming an effective international legal framework to regulate arms control still lags behind the reality of the world today.  The nuclear powers continue to update and expand their arsenals.  What is being called the “second nuclear century” is arriving, characterized by the emergence of new players and a reduction in global stability overall.  It has been speculated that under these circumstances, a military scenario may well be the likely outcome of the standoff between Washington and Pyongyang.

Thus it is extremely irresponsible of these international experts to have made such a superficial and inaccurate analysis of the issues surrounding the INF Treaty, which was signed between the USSR and the United States in December 1987, as well as the Russian-American New START Treaty, which expires in three years.  And distorting the true positions of the parties involved is not conducive to any potential resolution of the significant problems in regard to those agreements.  Among other omissions, the report neglects to mention the fact that Russia has continued to abide by the requirements of the INF Treaty and has not produced or tested any land-based ballistic or cruise missiles of intermediate- or shorter-range (from 500 to 5,500 km), while the US has violated that agreement 93 times since 2001, by launching those banned missiles to use as targets in its tests of the American ABM system.  Instead, the report offers a map showing the locations of non-existent Russian “intermediate- or shorter-range” ground-based missiles, in and around Europe.

The lack of attention the authors of the study have devoted to American air-borne tactical nuclear weapons on the European continent also raises serious concerns.  Many of those carry far more powerful nuclear warheads than even some types of US strategic nuclear ballistic missiles.  Nor is there any information on NATO’s Baltic Air Policing operation, which has been patrolling Latvian, Lithuanian, and Estonian airspace since March 2004 with the use of aircraft carrying nuclear weapons.

The report notes the concern voiced by Steven Pifer, the former US ambassador to Ukraine and current director of the Brookings Institution’s Arms Control Initiative, that any refusal to extend New START would lead to a situation in which there would be no international legal framework in place to regulate the US-Russian nuclear-arms relationship.  But neither Pifer nor the authors of the report have anything to say about how that situation arose, nor do they offer any specific suggestions for how to escape it.

In fact, both the previous and the newest US administrations have done their utmost to prevent any agreement from being reached under the New START Treaty or its potential replacement.

The Pentagon continues to carry out sweeping upgrades of its strategic and tactical nuclear weapons.  Huge amounts of money will be allocated for these purposes over the next 30 years – as much as $1.2 trillion (not $400 billion, as claimed in the report).  As before, much of the US arsenal is being deployed as part of an “Enhanced Forward Presence” located inside the borders of many countries in the world.  The new US Nuclear Posture Review 2018 loosens the criteria for the use of nuclear weapons, including as part of a preemptive strike.  The current US military and political leadership has openly declared its readiness to employ what are known as low-yield nuclear warheads on an equal footing with its non-nuclear munitions.  In addition, Washington intends to further expand the capabilities of its anti-missile system.

The report completely shuts its eyes to the issue of the uptick in conventional arms in European NATO countries, all while the alliance’s military activity, according to its Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, has quintupled over the past few years.  Two new transatlantic military command centers have been established.  And eight new US military bases and six command posts have appeared in European countries, in addition to the ones already there.

In addition, the international analysts are obviously pulling out all the stops to make the threat posed by North Korea and its nuclear program look even more dire.  In particular, the document claims that North Korea has been testing ballistic missiles of various ranges since 2002.  Which makes the numbers cited – showing 16 launches in 2016 and 20 in 2017 – look quite intimidating.  But nowhere does it mention that for a long time Pyongyang did not possess any missiles in this class, as the DPRK was a signatory to the NPT and was abiding by the Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, which it had signed with Seoul in 1992.  It was not until the United States began threatening Pyongyang militarily and without justification, conducting large-scale military exercises in the immediate vicinity of the North Korean border, and demanding regime change that the North Koreans were forced to acquire nuclear status and develop long-range missile systems for their own self-defense.

So, as was also true of the similar report that was released last year, the military and political sections of this document, drafted on the eve of the 2018 Munich Security Conference, contain both accurate judgments as well as, unfortunately, some dubious assessments.  It ignores many urgent European and international security problems, although its mandate was to offer an objective evaluation of the military and political situation and to come up with broad, practical recommendations in this extremely important area. 

It’s quite alarming to think that the upcoming 54th Munich Security Conference will once again be unlikely to offer the world any effective arms-control solutions or the establishment of a security system that would be in the interests of all the countries involved.

Written by Vladimir Kozin, Source: Oriental Review

The New START: Newest Russian Hi-Tech Systems

Numerous statements made by high-ranking American officials about the need to include in a possible future negotiation process between Moscow and Washington the issue of extending the Russian-American New START until 2026 all five new types of Russian weapons systems, which were announced by the Russian President Vladimir Putin in March 2018, have initiated a discussion in the Russian expert community about the expediency of extending the provisions of the said Treaty upon them.
 
Experts advocating the strengthening of Russia’s defence capability and strategic stability in the world, express deep doubt that the Russian side should meet Washington’s demands to proliferate all newest Russian weapon system that, it claims, fall under the provisions of the Treaty, signed in Prague in 2010. Another, very small group of Russian experts, who maintain close contacts with Western political think tanks, considers it possible to either abandon all or downsize some part of Russia’s advanced weapons systems in exchange for the United States’ agreement to extend the Prague Treaty for extra five years after it expires in February 2021, and to revive arms control process which, according to both sides, has reached a dead end.
 
What exactly is Washington interested in this matter?
 
The American side initially named only two of these five weapons: the Vanguard hypersonic gliding cruise combat unit and the new “Sarmat” ICBM, which should give it its initial speed after the launch. Subsequently, other new Russian strike systems were designated: the air-launched “Kinzhal” missile system, the “Poseidon” multipurpose autonomous underwater drone, and the “Burevestnik” cruise missile equipped with a mini-nuclear engine. The American leadership decided not to pay attention to the combat laser “Peresvet”, because laser weapons are not affected in any arms control treaties, except for the Agreement on the Prevention of Incidents at Sea (INCSEA) in 1972.
 
This raises two significant questions.
 
First, why did the American side try to extend the provisions of the New START to these Russian systems?
 
Second, what are its objectives in demanding that these systems should be linked to the provisions of the Treaty?
 
The analysis of the statements of the military-political leadership of the United States shows that it has displayed considerable concern about the performance characteristics of these weapons, which have been partly declared by the Russian side, and also due to the fact that the American military-industrial complex for many years has virtually produced nothing to oppose to these Russian systems having high striking capabilities and unmatched flight speed performance.
 
Having no grounds to reach agreements with Moscow on this issue, Washington also arrived at the conclusion that both of these latest perspectives and the most high-tech Russian strike systems will allow to repeatedly strengthen Russia’s defence potential in a short time at a moderate cost of logistics and money.
 
To give legal foundation to its claims that the mentioned new Russian weapons systems can be deployed before February 5, 2021, that is, before the expiration date of the New START, the US State Department stated that they will be considered as “existing types” and will be subject to the provisions of the said Treaty “at the appropriate time of their development cycle”.
 
But such systems are simply not mentioned in this Treaty. Paragraph 8 of its Article III contains specific lists of the SOA carriers of the two sides.
 
It stated that on the date of its signing (April 8, 2010), the “existing types” of intercontinental ballistic missiles for the Russian Federation were: RS-12M, RS-12M2, RS-18, RS-20 and RS-24, and the existing Russian types of submarine-launched ballistic missiles were referred to as SLBMs RSM-50, RSM-52, RSM-54 and RSM-56. The types of heavy strategic bombers (HSBs) of Russia were also specified. Of course, all three components of us strategic triad were also listed. The same article also referred to the parties’ existing ICBM and SLBM launchers, as well as the types of HSB. As anyone can see, the “Sarmat” ICBM was not there in sight at all.
 
However, Article V, paragraph 1, allowed and still allows the parties to modernize and replace their SOA without specifying any deadlines or milestones of their production. As for the hypersonic winged combat glider “Vanguard”, it is a unique combat unit, about the restrictive parameters of which the New START does not say anything at all. And Article II specifies only three concrete types of weapons due to be reduced: ICBMs, SLBMs and HSB of the two sides, their launchers and warheads up to a certain number. But nothing is said about the classic ‘buses’ (combat cones) of even the traditional strategic nuclear triad of the two sides.
 
As for the new “Sarmat” ICBM, in accordance with Article III of the Prague Treaty on the principles of counting ICBMs and SLBMs, only those types that are “maintained, stored and transported” in the form of already assembled missiles in launch containers or without them can be classified as such. However, as is known, the “Sarmat” ICBM has not yet entered service with the Russian strategic missile forces. For this reason, it cannot yet be taken into account in the New START.
 
It would be strange if Moscow would agree to the reduction or destruction of its new advanced weapons systems just because Washington so desires, especially in an environment where Russia has made much more progress in their development than the United States. Such a step would be very dangerous, as it would have a negative impact on the strengthening of Russia’s national defence and security, and would further undermine strategic stability in the global dimension. The new weapons systems in question make it possible to significantly strengthen not only Russia’s national security but also strategic stability on a global scale since their adoption can simultaneously correct some imbalances in nuclear, missile-defence and heavy conventional weapons that have been created at the initiative of the United States and in its favour.
 
The question also arises: what can be discussed at all in the negotiations on hypersonic systems between Russia and the United States? Destruction of Russian systems in conditions when the American military-industrial complex could not create competitive systems in this sphere? What is the point of eliminating such Russian weapons systems, if Washington has practically refused to recognize the relationship between strategic offensive nuclear weapons and strategic defensive weapons, which was recorded in the preamble of the New START? What is the point of this, if the USA adheres to destructive principles in the field of arms control, abandoning the principle of equality and equal security and not abandoning offensive military doctrines and the strategy of the first nuclear strike? So, the American side does not have any legal grounds to extend the provisions of the New START to new perspective weapons systems of the Russian Federation.
 
The American side may be given a different answer on this issue, which may be simple and specific: Moscow does not intend to conduct any discussions on the issue of restrictions or reductions of these systems with the United States, which still has a negative attitude to 13 international treaties in the field of arms control (six of them are directly or indirectly related to nuclear weapons), still retains tactical nuclear arsenals in Europe, have already brought carriers of nuclear weapons in the form of HSB and “dual-capable aircraft”, as well as sea-based and land-based BMD infrastructure  very close to the territory of Russia.
 
Speaking on November 6, 2019, in the Kremlin President Vladimir Putin said: “Our Army and Navy have proved their high readiness, and we intend to build up the defence potential, put on combat duty systems of hypersonic, laser and other modern weapons, which other countries do not yet have.” It is important to note that the head of the Russian state indicated the intention “… to put on combat duty systems of hypersonic, laser and other modern weapons …”.
 
Stressing that this step is not a reason to threaten anyone, he added: “on the contrary, we are ready to do everything in our power to push the disarmament process in the light of our latest weapons systems, whose task is sole to guarantee security in view of the growing threats to us.” It is important to pay attention to the phrase “…push the disarmament process….” and not to disarm unilaterally for its sake. Of key importance is also the second part of the quoted statement about the task of the latest weapons systems, which is “… solely to guarantee security in view of the growing threats to us”.
 
It is quite obvious that by sticking out the problem of “newest Russian weapons” with an artificial link to the New START and wanting to involve the PRC in it, which has repeatedly stated the absence of such a possibility, Washington still decided to withdraw from the Prague Treaty according to a similar scheme, which is used as a propaganda and sly cover for the unjustified and unilateral denunciation of the INF Treaty in August 2019.
 
Moscow does not consider it possible to discuss the inclusion of new Russian weapons in the New START without its revision, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said at the Moscow conference on non-proliferation, held in the first decade of November 2019. He recalled that on the American side there are arguments about the extension of the Treaty “to new Russian weapons that do not fall under its scope”, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly spoken about. “This is impossible without ‘opening’ and substantial revision of the text of the agreement,” he said.
 
It is quite obvious that such ‘intervention into the text’ of the New START for the purpose of its any revision, editing of already agreed and approved Articles or inclusion of any new formulas would lead to a radical breakdown of this agreement, which does not meet the fundamental interests in the field of national security of the Russian Federation.
 
As for the possible refusal of the United States to extend the New START or its unilateral denunciation, referring to this topic on the sidelines of the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg in June 2019, Russian President Vladimir Putin did not rule out the possibility of Russia’s refusal to extend New START in the event that the United States will not go for its extension for the next five years, that is till 2026. Naturally, the responsibility for this will fall only on Washington. And will not on anybody else.
 
 
Written by Dr. Vladimir Kozin, Source: Regional Rapport
 
 
 
Dr. Vladimir KOZIN is a Leading Expert, Military-Political Studies Center, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), Russian Foreign Ministry, Corresponding Member, Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, Professor, Russian Academy of Military Sciences Member, Scientific Board, National Institute of Global Security Research, Member, Expert Council, Foreign Relations Committee, Russian Senate, Winner of Colonel-General V.Korobushin's Reward (Russian Strategic Missiles' Forces) and Russian Natural Sciences Academy Reward, Member, Friends of Gorchakov's Foundation.
 
 
 
Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/45555

The U.S.- Russia arms control talks are needed – at least to hammer out some initial arragements

Presentation by Vladimir P. Kozin, the lead expert of the MGIMO’s Center for military and political studies, at the Second MGIMO-Fletcher Conference on Russian-American Relations. Moscow, MGIMO University, May the 24th.

***

The USA and Russia are facing the most dangerous security crisis in recent years for their nations and the world at large. The global implications of such crisis are also alarming. While the last century was labelled as the nuclear age, the current one has been characterized as ballistic missile defense age and as a potential space-based arms age.

Its evident implications have produced very strong negative impact, especially upon the arms control process.

In has nearly stalled. There no any new talks in this domain. Such talks are somewhere over the skyline.

There are 15 unresolved issues between the two nations in this area though during the first stage of the Cold War Washington and Moscow have managed to reach accords on strategic nuclear arms limitations and subsequently in their substantial reductions, on the ballistic missiles’ defense limitations, two classes of nuclear-tipped medium-range and shorter-range land-based ballistic and cruise missiles have been scrapped, several confidence-building measures in the military domain have been elaborated.

Currently there are 12 arms control arrangements that are either denounced unilaterally (ABM Treaty, Iran nuclear deal), or non-ratified (CTBT, adapted CFE) or partially violated New START, INF Treaty, Open Skies Treaty, CWC, BWC) or completely disregarded by the USA (European Security Treaty, Treaty preventing arms race in outer space). The INF Treaty that has been widely welcomed all over the world has been violated by the Pentagon 93 times while testing the effectiveness of the U.S.BMDS with the use of medium-range and shorter-range missiles as mock missiles prohibited by the INF Treaty.

The Security Summit between Presidents Trump and Putin exclusively devoted to arms control is needed.

The proposed Summit has to be prepared with the utmost accuracy and dedication displayed by the two sides. It should be oriented to practical, mutually acceptable solutions to be clearly understood and shared by the American and Russian citizens, and by the entire world community.

Certainly, it is difficult to imagine that the leaders of two superpowers could reach a comprehensive accord on all sixteen unresolved issues in the arms control area during their first Summit. But, in order to make a considerable step forward to greater bilateral and global security they have to make at least a number of initial steps, for example:

1. To sign the legally-binding Treaty on no-first-use of any kind of nuclear weapons with any nuclear yield against each other. If such agreement is not reached to reach agreements on the rest proposals listed below will be useless.

2. To reach an agreement on limiting the total number of strategic BMD interceptors to a certain limit, e.g. 2.000 for each side, excluding PAC-3 Patriot-type AAD/BMD for each side; and on limiting their geographic deployment closer than 1.000 km to each territory.

3. To reach an accord not to field for more than 24 hours any kind of nuclear weapons, both strategic and tactical, outside national territory of the two sides. The USA has to pull back all its tactical nuclear weapons from Europe and the Asian part of Turkey, thus making a geographic parity in their deployments limited to their respective territories.

4. To sign a bilateral treaty banning space-based striking weapons, including ASAT assets and BMDS interceptors.

5. To sign a new CFE Treaty applied to Europe covering the same five types of heavy weapons specified in the earlier CFE-1 and CFE-1A accords.

All these measures are the most urgent.

They require concrete solutions to be made at the level of the Presidents of the USA and the Russian Federation. Only they can, if they wish, to restore the profitable arms control process that has been implemented in the past.

That is why the appeal of all rational personalities in the USA and the Russian Federation should be addressed to them, to their wisdom and to their dedication to make our world safer, more stable and more predictable.

The U.S.-Russia presidential summit is urgently needed

Remarks sent to the participants in the 38th Annual U.S.-Russia Forum, Washington, May 21, 2018

I fully share the intention of the participants in the 37th Annual U.S.-Russia Forum, arranged in May 2018 in Washington, to discuss the current state of U.S.-Russia relations and specifically the text of the appeal for the urgent Summit to be arranged between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to find the way out of the most dangerous security crisis facing both nations and the world.

The implications of the security crisis for bilateral relations between Washington and Moscow have produced very strong negative impact, especially upon the arms control process. In has nearly stalled. There are sixteen unresolved issues between the two nations in this area though during the first stage of the Cold War Washington and Moscow have managed to reach accords on strategic nuclear arms limitations and subsequently in their substantial reductions, on the ballistic missiles’ defense limitations, two classes of nuclear-tipped medium-range and shorter-range land-based ballistic and cruise missiles have been scrapped, several confidence-building measures in the military domain have been elaborated.

The global implications of the security crisis are also alarming. While the last century was labelled as the nuclear age, the current one has been characterized as ballistic missile defense age and as a potential space-based arms age. Currently there are eleven arms control arrangements that are either denounced unilaterally, or non-ratified, or partially violated, or completely disregarded by the USA. The INF Treaty that has been widely welcomed all over the world has been violated by the Pentagon 93 (93) times while testing the effectiveness of the U.S.BMDS with the use of medium-range and shorter-range missiles as mock missiles prohibited by the INF Treaty.

The Security Summit between Presidents Trump and Putin is badly needed. The previous U.S. Administration has failed to respond positively to this notion that has been articulated in the Washington Times nearly five years ago (“Washington and Moscow Must Revive the Arms Control Process”//Washington Times. 2013. June 11. Supplement sponsored by the Russia House Associates).

The proposed Summit has to be prepared with the utmost accuracy and dedication displayed by the two sides. It should be oriented to practical, mutually acceptable solutions to be clearly understood and shared by the American and Russian citizens, and by the entire world community.

Certainly, it is difficult to imagine that the leaders of two superpowers could resolve all sixteen unresolved issues in the arms control area during their first Summit. But, in order to make a considerable step forward to greater bilateral and global security they have to make at least a number of initial steps, for example:

1. To sign the legally-binding Treaty on no-first-use of any kind of nuclear weapons with any yield against each other. If such agreement is not reached to reach agreements on the rest proposals listed below will be useless

2. To reach an agreement on limiting the total number of strategic BMD interceptors to a certain limit, e.g. 2.000 for each side, excluding PAC-3 Patriot-type AAD/BMD for each side; and on limiting their geographic deployment closer than 1.000 km to each territory.

3. To reach an accord not to field for more than 24 hours any kind of nuclear weapons, both strategic and tactical, outside national territory of the two sides. The USA has to pull back all its tactical nuclear weapons from Europe and the Asian part of Turkey, thus making a geographic parity in their deployments limited to their respective territories.

5. To sign a bilateral treaty banning space-based striking weapons, including ASAT assets and BMDS interceptors.

4. To sign a new CFE Treaty applied to Europe covering the same five types of heavy weapons specified in the earlier CFE-1 and CFE-1A accords.

All these measures are the most urgent. They require prompt and concrete solutions to be made at the level of the Presidents of the USA and the Russian Federation. Only they can, if they wish, to restore the profitable arms control process that has been stalled. That is why the appeal of all rational personalities in the USA and the Russian Federation should be addressed to them, to their wisdom and to their dedication to make our world safer, stable and predictable.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin, Source: Russia House

The U.S.-Russia security summit is needed

Vladimir P. Kozin's answers to five questions on the agenda of the seminar "Russian-American relations in the nuclear sphere: ways of interaction", formulated by its organizers.

The USA and Russia are facing the most dangerous security crisis in recent years for their nations and the world at large. The global implications of such crisis are also alarming. While the last century was labeled as the nuclear age, the current one has been characterized as ballistic missile defense age and as a potential space-based arms age.

The evident implications of such crisis have produced very strong negative impact, especially upon the arms control process.

In has nearly stalled. There are no any new talks in this domain. Such new talks are somewhere over the skyline.

There are 15 unresolved issues between the two nations in this area though during the first stage of the Cold War Washington and Moscow have managed to reach accords on strategic nuclear arms limitations and subsequently in their substantial reductions, on the ballistic missiles’ defense limitations, two classes of nuclear tipped medium-range and shorter-range land-based ballistic and cruise missiles have been scrapped, several confidences

I. To sign the legally-binding Treaty on no-first-use of any kind of nuclear weapons with any nuclear yield against each other. If such agreement is not formalized to reach agreements on the rest proposals listed below will be useless.

II. To arrive at an agreement on limiting the total number of strategic BMD interceptors to a certain limit, e.g. 2.000 for each side, excluding PAC-3 Patriot-type AAD/BMD for each side; and on limiting their geographic deployment closer than 1.000 km to each territory.

III. To forge an accord not to field for more than 24 hours any kind of nuclear weapons, both strategic and tactical, outside national territory of the two sides. The USA has to pull back all its tactical nuclear weapons from Europe and the Asian part of Turkey, thus making a geographic parity in their deployments limited to their respective territories.

IV. To formulate a bilateral treaty banning space-based striking weapons, including  ASAT assets and BMDS interceptors.

V. To sign a new CFE Treaty applied to Europe covering the same five types of heavy weapons specified in the earlier CFE-1 and CFE-1A accords.

All these measures are the most urgent.

They require concrete solutions to be made at the level of the Presidents of the USA and the Russian Federation. Only they can, if they wish, to restore the profitable arms control process that has been implemented in the past. That is why the appeal should be addressed to them, to their wisdom and to their dedication to make our world safer, more stable and more predictable.

As to the specific five questions mentioned in the agenda of the current Roundtable discussion the shortest answers to them could be like this:

Q. On reduction of nuclear risks:

A.: The idea is fine, but it is unattainable, because of lack of mutual trust between Washington and Moscow and striking disparity between preconditions for using nuclear weapons – while the current U.S. NPR has 14 grounds to use them, the Russian nuclear doctrine has incorporated only two. The other stumbling block is a negative response of the USA towards 12 arms control arrangements with Russia.

Q. On avoidance of risks of using nuclear weapons due to accident or miscalculation:

A.: There is only one possible solution: to restore mutual trust, respect and confidence in practical manner – to sign a NFU (no-first-use) accord having unlimited duration between the USA and Russia. The USA has to pull back all its tactical nuclear weapons from 5 NATO-member states to the CONUS, and stop air patrolling near Russia involving heavy strategic bombers and ‘dual-capable aircraft’ in the Baltic Sea area.

As the ex-Defense Secretary William Perry has put it in his “My Journey at the Nuclear Brink” (2015) “… to make real progress in reducing nuclear dangers, the United States must lead” (P. 195). It is not serendipity that he used the phrase the USA “must lead”.

Q. On potential actions of the USA and Russia to stop or avoid a new arms race:

A.: For nuclear domain the answer is given in initial items of remarks given above: in number I and III; for conventional weapons the answer is given in item V; for outer space the answer is given in item IV, and for BMDS the answer is given in item II.

Q. On threat reduction on the Korean Peninsula:

A.: It is expedient for North and South Koreas to sign a NFU accord and the same treaty between the USA and North Korea; the USA has to offer to North Korea real security guarantees with a commitment not to attack it, not to change the regime, not to arrange a large-scale military drills near its shores, especially involving nuclear tipped SOA.

Q. On opportunities for future for scientific and technical collaboration between the USA and Russia:

A.: There will be no chances for such opportunities, except in the running the space station “Mir” and in the academic sphere exclusively dealing with arms control. It is impossible to foster any bilateral technical ties due to highly virulent sanctions’ decease that have been imposed arbitrarily upon more than 400 Russian enterprises and more than 200 high-ranking Russian individuals and businessmen. First of all, all these sanctions must be lifted off by the USA. Only after that Moscow will see what could be done in this and other areas of potential cooperation.

The Unacceptable Risks of Trump’s Nuclear Strategy

Last week, the Huffington Post published on its website a draft version of the Trump administration’s updated Nuclear Posture Review, which is to replace Barack Obama’s previous nuclear strategy document that was adopted in 2010.  Despite the fact that the draft is marked “pre-decisional” and can still be amended, knowledgeable American sources claim that this is the document that will officially be presented in February after the president’s traditional speech before Congress.

The American Arms Control Association and the British newspaper the Guardianhave already described this paper as “hawkish,” in that it calls for “major changes” in the management of the country’s nuclear arsenal and authorizes the deployment of long-range nuclear cruise missiles, as well as the use of low-yield nuclear warheads.

It would be hard not to agree with these assessments.

The published document tries to make the case that the US is now confronted with an international security situation that is “more complex and demanding,” thus apparently requiring immediate updates to the nation’s nuclear forces.  It eloquently describes how the United States cut back on its strategic and tactical nuclear weapons, only to watch as its “strategic competitors” did not follow its lead.  But at the same time, provision has been made to update the Americans’ nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) system (hereinafter the corresponding numbered lines from the draft document are noted: 246-254).  The Pentagon is instructed to continue to deploy strategic and tactical nuclear arsenals in its “forward-operating bases.”

Although claiming that the US does not wish to regard either Russia or China as an adversary, everything in the report glibly suggests otherwise.  Despite the acknowledgment that Russia has significantly reduced its strategic nuclear arsenals, the unsupported allegation is made that Moscow is preparing to update its strategic nuclear forces and retains a large number of tactical nuclear weapons.  It remains unclear how such an odd conclusion has been reached about the latter type of weapon, since those numbers have never been released by either side, only the fact that the quantity of such arms has been decreased (to an unnamed level), as part of the process of implementing the “presidential initiatives” of 1991-1992.  Russia and the United States have never sat down at the negotiating table to try to limit or reduce tactical nuclear weapons.

Moscow is also accused, without evidence, of having made nuclear threats against US allies.  There is no proof that Russia has ever done such a thing, and the allegation is all the more galling given the fact that after the US military dropped atomic bombs on Japanthere were seven different times when the Pentagon drew up plans to use nuclear weapons in several regional confrontations and conflicts!

The NPR makes similar complaints about China, claiming that Beijing is modernizing and expanding its nuclear arsenal.

It also mentions the “nuclear ambitions” of North Korea and Iran.

To that end, the new Nuclear Policy Review proclaims the need for a flexible and tailored nuclear strategy (line 94) that will make it possible to adapt the US approach to “deterring one or more potential adversaries in different circumstances.”

Although the reader is assured that the president of the United States may only resort to nuclear weapons in the most extreme circumstances, it is also noted they may be used to protect either the US or its allies and partners from even from the limited use of nuclear weapons by an adversary (104), or from an enemy attack using conventional weapons (141), based on the strategy of extended nuclear deterrence that is provided to US allies in Europe, Asia, and the Asia-Pacific region (213-214 and 855).  The document implies that Washington will continue to abide by the nuclear sharing agreements it has already signed with America’s NATO allies (256-258).  This means that American nuclear weapons will remain stationed within the borders of those allied states, including in Europe.  NATO’s nuclear-sharing policy – in which three countries own nuclear weapons and another five agree to host US nuclear warheads (1219-1221) – will remain unchanged.

There is no doubt that this new policy document, like its predecessor from 2010, will indirectly reiterate the provision that permits a nuclear first strike against any potential enemy of the United States, its allies, or partners.  In order to improve its ability to deliver nuclear strikes, special emphasis is placed on the strengthening of space-based reconnaissance and communications resources.

The US will preserve its traditional strategic nuclear triad and nuclear delivery vehicles, including dual-capable aircraft.  The plans to create an essentially new strategic nuclear triad have been confirmed.  Eliminating any of its three legs has been ruled out (306-308).

The document insists that nuclear weapons must remain in the country for as long as required (121-122).  This likely explains why the US has staunchly refused to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (529).

This new nuclear strategy reaffirms Washington’s earlier statements about the feasibility of using low-yield nuclear warheads – initially mounted on ballistic missiles, and later on the cruise missiles of nuclear submarines, making it impossible to know in advance whether a nuclear or conventional weapon is on board.  Obvious this would greatly upset the global strategic balance.  Nor can strategic stability be attained through the ambitious plan to replace old nuclear warheads with their new versions (451-489).  The document announces that in 2020 the new B61-12 nuclear gravity bomb will be introduced, the accuracy of which is known to suffer from a high ratio of circular error probability (325-326).

The Russian stance in regard to the negotiations over the fate of the New START Treaty and tactical nuclear weapons has been distorted.

Without any proof whatsoever the Russians have been accused of breaching the 1987 INF Treaty, even though the United States has already violated it 92 times since 2001 by using intermediate- and shorter-range missiles as targets to test the effectiveness of its ABM system.  And Washington will violate it once again when it introduces a new American mobile, ground-based, nuclear-tipped cruise missile – which was banned by the 1987 treaty signed by Gorbachev and Reagan – and subsequently deploys that missile on the European continent.

Without offering any evidence, Moscow is also accused of noncompliance with the Treaty on Open Skies, which the Americans did not hesitate to violate first, by introducing unjustifiable restrictions on the zones approved for Russian surveillance flights over the US.  Although no NATO member state has ever ratified the CFE Treaty, Russia was cited as being in breach, although Moscow did ratify this important treaty and later proposed the adoption of the European Security Treaty, which was rejected out of hand by every member of this military alliance of “transatlantic solidarity.”

In short, the Trump administration’s updated Nuclear Posture Review is an extremely negative, aggressive, and explosive document.  Its approval will dramatically complicate the global strategic scenario, undermine international stability, and result in the suspension of a number of arms-control agreements.

This document, which launches a Cold War 2.0, might also trigger two whole new types of arms races (in addition to the existing nuclear-missile confrontation and proliferation of nuclear weapons): i.e., races to stockpile anti-missile and space weapons.

The new US nuclear strategy will further damage its relations with the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China – relationships that Washington has already thrown under the bus.

If the current US administration does eventually approve this document that entails such perilous consequences for the destiny of our world, then it will be taking risks that are unbefitting the enormous sense of responsibility that the great nuclear powers should feel, share, and retain in order to further peace on our planet and security in the interests of all countries.

 

Written by Vladimir Kozin, Source: Oriental Review

The latest news from Donbas

 

 Saturday, February 19th 2022

1. The leaders of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR; Denis Pushilin) and Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR; Leonid Pasechnik) located in Donbas have announced on February 19 that they have ordered the total mobilization of all able-bodied men in response to massive Ukrainian shelling along the frontline.

The DPR said that Kiev began shelling villages along the 400 km frontline with heavy artillery on February 17, and that the barrage had continued throughout February 18, and in the morning February 19. Three low pressure gas pipelines have been blown up in residential areas in Donbas by Ukrainian saboteurs. February 19, 2022 the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued to use tank guns, heavy artillery and mortars against civilian infrastructure versus Donbas.

On February 19 the DPR official spokesman Basurin told the press that Ukrainian president has issued instructions to arrange ethnic cleansing in Donbas with the aim to expel all Russians from Donbas.

2. According to the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine in its Daily Report # 38/2022 issued on 18 February 2022, on February 17 the SMM recorded 222 ceasefire violations in Donetsk region, including 135 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 189 ceasefire violations in the region.

The SMM also recorded 648 ceasefire violations in Luhansk region, including 519 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 402 ceasefire violations in the region.

So, on February 17 the SMM has recorded totally 870 ceasefire violations by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) in DPR and LPR.

(https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/512605)

3. In his remarks made February 18, 2022 in the White House President Joseph Biden admitted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have arrayed on its borders “well over 150,000 troops”. He claimed that there are “phony allegations of a genocide taking place in the Donbas”. Yes, it is true, in 2014-2021 UAF and illegal military formations during two aggressions have killed near 14,000 civilians in Donbas confirmed by the UNO. It is real genocide.

President Joseph Biden’s commitment that “we will continue to support the Ukrainian people” means that the USA will support the third Ukrainian aggression versus Donbas, and urge Kiev to slam the door shut on diplomacy, and create rather dangerous and dramatic hotbed of tension.

(https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/02/18/remarks-by-president-biden-providing-an-update-on-russia-and-ukraine-2/)

Up to now, despite faked rumors disseminated by Western officials and mass media the Russian Armed Forces have not crossed Russian-Ukrainian border, and have not open fire on Ukrainian Armed Forces.

4. Refugees from Donbass

Evgeny Katsavalov, a senior government official in Lugansk said that 25,000 people have previously left the LPR for Russia. He added that the authorities are in the process of organizing the evacuation of an additional 10,000 residents.

Emergency services in the DPR said that more than 6,600 people, including 2,400 children, have been evacuated to Russia, initially to Rostov Region adjacent to Donbas. Emergency situation has been announced in Rostov Region due to potential influx of refugees. 26 Russian Regions have declared their readiness to accept refugees from Donbas on their territory.

DPR predicts that around 700,000 residents of the republic can be evacuated to Russia in order to avoid civilian casualties under Ukrainian fire.
 
Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

The nuclear threat to the world is multifaceted. Where does it really come from?

January, 1, 2024

 

Vladimir Kozin, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences

On December 27, 2023, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists posted a brief commentary by François Diaz-Maurin, associate editor for nuclear affairs of this edition, entitled "The nuclear year in review: A renewed interest in nuclear weapons – for and against".

In it, he unjustifiably recalled that Russia was allegedly circulating "thinly veiled threats" to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine in 2023. At the same time François Diaz-Morin rightly recognized that this had not been done. To be more precise: no veiled and no overt threats were made at all at the highest state level in Moscow. Nevertheless, the author of the commentary claimed that Russia was allegedly preparing to launch nuclear sabotage at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant controlled by Russian Armed Forces. But, I wonder: why would they want to do that? To commit a suicide? The associate editor did not elaborate.

But, on the other hand, Francois Diaz-Morin concealed that Ukraine has repeatedly used attack drones, artillery and missile systems against this nuclear power plant with the apparent connivance of the IAEA leadership.

At the same time, the associate editor did not criticize the current U.S. nuclear strategy, which envisages a nuclear first strike against virtually any state in the world, except for the United States' allies and partners, which in recent years have significantly strengthened forward-deployed nuclear missile assets near Russia and the PRC.

In this context, it should be noted that in early December this year in Geneva, the United States tested the SIGNAL game model developed at the request of the Pentagon with the participation of experts from various countries engaged through the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research or UNIDIR.

It should be taken into account that the SIGNAL model is actually an abbreviation – it is by no means simple, but it is a strategic interaction game between nuclear-armed states, or in English "Strategic Interaction Game Between Nuclear Armed Lands" or SIGNAL for short.

The Russian delegation refused to participate in this dubious spectacle, since the SIGNAL model is designed to study various aspects of conflict escalation within the framework of the American concept of global adaptive and integrated deterrence, including nuclear deterrence.

By conducting such events on international platforms, the U.S. side actually studies approaches and algorithms of nuclear missile strikes that can be delivered against other states.

It was developed by Sandia National Laboratories and the Berkeley University Risk and Security Laboratory (the USA), or "BRSL" for short, at the request of the Pentagon and the United States Department of Energy under the Project “On Nuclear Gaming”. As described by the authors of the model, SIGNAL is a computer operated turn-based strategy board game designed to study the decision-making process on the use of conventional and nuclear weapons in a combination manner. So, is Washington training the world community to be accustomed to the use of nuclear weapons?

It was the SIGNAL game pattern, as follows from the article "Evidence of the unthinkable: experimental wargaming at the nuclear threshold" posted on the BRSL website in October 2022, that was used by the U.S. military lobby to argue for the adoption of U.S. low-yield nuclear warheads having  less than 5 kiloton each. Notably, the event with UNIDIR experts was originally announced as "Introduction to wargaming". This compromising title was then changed to "Introduction to peace games". With nuclear weapons’ employment?

During the December 2023 gaming, UNIDIR experts simulated the use of nuclear weapons in combination with general-purpose ground offensives, maritime landings, long-range strike and cyberattacks, as well as the defense of their territory by AAD/MDS. BRSL representatives did not participate in this game, but "monitored the dynamics of the process" and "added it to the statistics". May be useful. By whom?  And what for?

It is obvious that by provoking the paralysis of the system of international treaties in the area of reducing the risks of military nuclear threats and withdrawing support from six bilateral and multilateral agreements directly related to nuclear arms control, Washington has simultaneously intensified the elaboration of scenarios of conflicts with the risk of the use of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons, and large-scale technological disasters. Currently all major United States conventional military exercises end with the use of dummy nuclear weapons. The USA and the UK supply shells fitted with depleted uranium to Ukraine

Given the U.S. concepts of "global multi-domain force dominance" and "first preventive and pre-emptive nuclear strike," the international public and expert community should be especially vigilant and demonstrate an objective perception of the situation by answering the simple question: "Where does the nuclear threat to the world really come from?"

* * *

A justifiable retaliation

On December 30,2023 Ukrainian Armed Forces shelled the center of Belgorod, the city located on the continental Russia. The result of that brutal attack: 24 civilians were killed, including 4 kids, and 108 civilians were injured, including 14 children injured. 30 multistorey houses have been damaged, including 381 flats in them. Two schools have been hit. There are no military facilities in that area.

Exercising the right for a retaliation, the next day Russian Armed Forces fired at a hotel located in Kharkov where eliminated “representatives of the Main Intelligence Directorate and the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who were directly involved in the planning and execution of the terrorist attack in Belgorod,” the Russian MoD said. The building also housed up to 200 foreign mercenaries who were gearing up for “terrorist raids” into Russian territory, officials added.

In addition to this, an attack was carried out on a branch of the Ukrainian National space control center in western Ukraine, which had been used by Kiev for reconnaissance. Fuel depots in Kharkov and the Kiev-controlled part of  Zaporozhye Region were also destroyed, according to the statement. 

At the same time, the ministry stressed that the Russian Defense Military “only strikes military targets and infrastructure directly associated with them.” 

 

Original in Russian

 

Ядерная угроза миру многогранна. Откуда она исходит на самом деле?

 

Владимир Козин, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России

27 декабря 2023 года журнал Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists разместил краткий комментарий заместителя редактора названного издания Франсуа Диас-Морин под названием «Обзор ядерного года: возникший интерес к ядерному оружию «за» и «против» («The nuclear year in review: A renewed interest in nuclear weapons – for and against»).

В нем он бездоказательно напомнил о том, что Россия, мол,  распространяла в 2023 году «тщательно замаскированные угрозы» применить ядерное оружие против Украины. Франсуа Диас-Морин одновременно справедливо признал, что это не было сделано. Точнее сказать: вообще на высшем государственном уровне в Москве не было сделано никаких скрытых и никаких открытых угроз. Тем не менее, автор комментария утверждал, что Россия, якобы, готовит ядерный саботаж на Запорожской АЭС, контролируемой российскими Вооруженными Силами. Но, интересно: зачем им это надо? – заместитель редактора не уточнил.

Но, с другой стороны, Франсуа Диас-Морин скрыл, что против этой АЭС Украина неоднократно использовала ударные дроны, артиллерийские и ракетные системы при явном попустительстве руководства МАГАТЭ.

Одновременно заместитель редактора не подверг критике действующую американскую ядерную стратегию, которая предусматривает нанесение первого ядерного удара практически по любому государству мира, кроме союзников и партнеров Соединенных Штатов, которые в последние годы значительно усилили ракетно-ядерные средства передового базирования близ России и КНР.

В этом контексте следует обратить внимание на то, что начале декабря этого года в Женеве США устроили апробацию разработанной по заказу Пентагона игровой модели «SIGNAL» с участием экспертов из различных стран, привлеченных по линии ооновского Института по исследованию проблем разоружения или ЮНИДИР. Сценарий «SIGNAL» – это аббревиатура. Но отнюдь не простая, а стратегическая схема взаимодействия между ядерными государствами. По-английски: «Strategic Interaction Game Between Nuclear Armed Lands» или сокращенно «SIGNAL».

Российская делегация отказалась участвовать в этом сомнительном спектакле, поскольку модель «SIGNAL» предназначена для изучения различных аспектов эскалации конфликтов в рамках американской концепции глобального адаптивного и интегрированного сдерживания, в том числе ядерного сдерживания.

Проводя подобные мероприятия на международных площадках, американская сторона фактически изучает подходы и алгоритмы ракетно-ядерных действий, которые могут быть приняты против других государств.

Она была разработана Сандийской национальной лабораторией и Лабораторией по рискам и безопасности Университета Беркли (США) или сокращенно «BRSL» по заказу Пентагона и Министерства энергетики Соединенных Штатов в рамках проекта «Ядерные игры» («Project On Nuclear Gaming»). Как расписали авторы сценария «SIGNAL» – это компьютерная пошаговая стратегическая игра предназначена для изучения процесса принятия решений о применении обычного и ядерного оружия.

То есть, Вашингтон приучает мировое сообщество к применению ядерного оружия?

 В ходе упоминавшейся декабрьской игры 2023 года специалисты ЮНИДИР моделировали применение ядерного оружия в сочетании с наступлениями сухопутных сил общего назначения, высадкой морского десанта, с ударом дальнобойными ударными средствами и проведением кибератак, а также обеспечением защиты своей территории и ресурсов средствами ПВО/ПРО. Представители «BRSL» в этой игре не участвовали, но «мониторили динамику процесса» и «пополняли статистику». Может пригодиться. Кому?

Как следует из статьи «Подтверждение невообразимого: экспериментальные военные игры на грани ядерной катастрофы» («Evidence of the unthinkable: experimental wargaming at the nuclear threshold»), размещенной на сайте «BRSL» в октябре 2022 года, именно схема «SIGNAL», была использована американским военным лобби для обоснования целесообразности принятия на вооружение американских маломощных ядерных боезарядов, к которым относятся боезаряды с мощностью 5 килотонн и меньше.

Примечательно, что первоначально мероприятие с участием экспертов ЮНИДИР было анонсировано как «Введение в военные игры» («Introduction tо wargaming»). Затем это компрометирующее название было изменено на «Введение в миротворческие игры» («Introduction tо peace games»).

Очевидно, что, спровоцировав паралич системы международных договоров в области снижения рисков военной ядерной угрозы и отход от поддержки шести двусторонних и многосторонних соглашений, имеющих прямое отношение к контролю над ядерными вооружениями, Вашингтон одновременно активизировал проработку сценариев конфликтов с возможным применением оружия массового поражения, в том числе ядерного, и масштабных технологических катастроф.

Все крупные военные учения Соединенных Штатов с использованием обычных вооружений заканчиваются c условным применением ядерного оружия. США и Великобритания поставляют на Украину снаряды с обедненным ураном.

С учетом действующих в США концепций «глобального многодоменного силового доминирования» и «первого превентивного и упреждающего ядерного удара» международной общественности и экспертному сообществу следовало бы проявить особую бдительность и продемонстрировать объективное восприятие ситуации с ответом на простой вопрос: «Откуда на самом деле исходит ядерная угроза миру?»

***

Справедливый ответ

30 декабря 2023 года украинские вооруженные силы обстреляли центр Белгорода – города, расположенного в юго-западной части России. В результате жестокой атаки погибли 24 мирных жителя, в том числе 4 ребенка, 108 мирных жителей получили ранения, в том числе 14 детей. Повреждены 30 многоэтажных домов, в том числе 381 квартира в них. Пострадали две школы. В этом районе нет военных объектов.

Реализуя право на ответный удар, на следующий день российские вооруженные силы обстреляли гостиницу в Харькове, где были уничтожены "представители Главного разведывательного управления и Вооруженных сил Украины, принимавшие непосредственное участие в планировании и осуществлении теракта в Белгороде", говорится в сообщении МО России. В здании также находилось до 200 иностранных наемников, которые готовились к "террористическим вылазкам" на территорию России, добавили официальные лица.

Кроме того, было совершено нападение на филиал Украинского национального центра управления космическим пространством на западе Украины, который использовался Киевом для разведки. Также были уничтожены склады топлива в Харькове и подконтрольной Киеву части Запорожской области, говорится в заявлении.

В то же время в российском Министерстве обороны подчеркнули, что российские военные "наносят удары только по военным объектам и непосредственно связанной с ними инфраструктуре".

 

 

 

The warning from Russia

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин дал интервью ТВ Италии о начале работ в США по созданию новых ракет средней дальности: «Разрабатываемые в США новые ядерные ракеты средней дальности могут быть модифицированы под стратегическую дальность, то есть свыше 5500 км, и они могут быть размещены в Европе и Азии».

В то время как глобальное внимание сосредоточено на Covid-19, В.П. Козин предупреждает, что опасность ядерной конфронтации сейчас более неизбежна, чем во время холодной войны. 

Ведущая Джин Тоски М. Висконти. Эфир от 1 апреля.

>>Ознакомиться с итальянской версией передачи можно, перейдя по ссылке<<

 

To defuze the situation in Europe

To defuze such dramatic and dangerous situation artificially and illogically hammered out near Donbas several immediate steps should be made without delay.

1. Kiev has to stop all its military preparations to regain Donbas by a large-scale aggression.

2. Kiev should recognize the full independence of Donetsk and Lugansk Republics (if Kiev does not pay wages, pensions, does not offer medical services to their citizens, and has conducted two broad military operations to conquer Donbas, used Tochka ballistic missiles, combat aircraft, heavy artillery and heavy mortars and tanks, etc – why to torture their people?).

3. Kiev should announce that it would not appeal for full NATO membership for good, and will permanently enjoy an Austria-type neutral status.

4. The USA and other NATO countries should immediately stop sending huge amount of weapons and ammunition to Kiev regime, and stop canalizing it to unleash the third aggression against Donbas.

5.NATO should stop its Baltic Air Policing operations with dual-capable aircraft.

6. The USA should withdraw all its tactical nuclear weapons from Europe and the Asian part of Turkey, and stop dispatching its SOA heavy strategic bombers to the European air space.

7. The USA should dismantle its combined missile defense (MD) operational base in Romania, and stop construction of the same MD base in Poland.

Some ideas are also reflected in the attached slides. They are in English.

Crux of the matter:

a)  the ballyhoo related to "Russian aggression against Ukraine" (such ballyhoo is circulated by NATO for the last 7 years) has been invented to cover up the real Kiev aggression versus Donbas for the third time, and to drag Ukraine into NATO to make it as a permanent forward-based military bridgehead against Russia;

b) the price to be paid for the result of Ukrainian non-admission into NATO, and the pricetag for the war in Europe in 2022 are completely different.

The latter is much higher.

And irrational.

And very risky.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

Trump’s Nuclear Doctrine Is A Threat To Strategic Stability

On Feb. 2, 2018, the US finally released its Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), the leaked draft of which we already analyzed last month.

As expected, compared with the previous “Obama” version, the new doctrine greatly elevates the role and significance of nuclear weapons in US military policy.  It’s a highly charged document – more aggressive and offensive – and will radically undermine the world’s strategic stability as a whole, while further complicating relations with Russia and China.  The usual accusations have been leveled against Pyongyang, decrying the expansion of its arsenal of nuclear missiles, and also against Tehran, as “Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain an unresolved concern.”

Among other issues, the new document also claims that the Russians have adopted a policy known as “limited nuclear escalation,” i.e., the use of a nuclear first strike in a local conflict or the threat to do so, although no such provision has ever existed in the nuclear doctrines of either the former Soviet Union or the Russian Federation, then or now.

Vague justifications for use

The revised nuclear doctrine focuses on the simultaneous resolution of two key issues: it has its sights set on radical, long-term updates to US strategic and tactical nuclear powers, while simultaneously lowering the bar for the use of nuclear weapons, specifically allowing for the possibility of detonating low-yield nuclear warheads as part of limited nuclear strikes.  For example, the B61-12 nuclear bomb, with its warheads of 50, 10, 1.5 or 0.3 kilotons, is viewed as an auspicious new development.  In addition, over the next two years there are plans to install lower-yield nuclear warheads on the SLBM Trident II (D5), and later on a new nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile – although the minimum yields of their warheads have yet to be revealed.

The statements by US military officials alleging that the use of low-yield nuclear warheads would supposedly be more “humane” does not negate the fact that lowered “thresholds” for the use of nuclear force might lead to an escalation of nuclear war even situations that began as small armed conflicts.

This approved strategy includes the admission that the United States is ready to consider the possibility of using nuclear weapons “in the most extreme circumstances to protect our vital interests.”

The quintessence of the NPR lies in the premise that nuclear weapons could potentially be used to inflict a first strike against almost any country in the world, including states that might be using only their conventional armed forces against the US, while engaged in any sort of conflict, even a small one with minimal consequences.  The list of justifications for the use of nuclear weapons also includes attacks using conventional weapons against US or allied nuclear forces, their command and control, or warning and attack assessment capabilities.  This was also acknowledged by Deputy Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan at a press briefing dedicated to the release of the new nuclear posture review.

The preface to the Nuclear Policy Review signed by the head of the Pentagon, James Mattis, is worded in such a way as to make it clear that the US president must have the option to use nuclear weapons in the event of a “sudden changes in the geopolitical environment” or even “technological surprise.”

The vagueness of certain provisions, obviously implying the permissibility of a free hand when it comes to launching nuclear missiles, is testament to the US administration’s irresponsible attitude toward their use.

All these premises are evidence of the widening array of circumstances and justifications that could spur the US president to order a nuclear first strike.  In this context, it is worth remembering that last year the US Congress, for the first time in more than forty years, openly discussed the fact that the country’s president has the full prerogative to issue a unilateral and unappealable order to use nuclear weapons against any state in the world, without requiring authorization from the highest US legislative body and without a declaration of war against that state.  Donald Trump, who is still threatening to use nuclear force against North Korea, ignored this Congressional hearing and reiterated that if the head of state were to issue such an order, the country’s nuclear missiles would respond within 3-5 minutes.

Trump’s nuclear strategy reaffirms the policy of “extended nuclear deterrence,” which keeps the American “nuclear umbrella” unfurled over 32 nations: 28 US NATO allies, plus Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Israel.  The Pentagon will also maintain its bilateral “nuclear sharing agreements” with a large group of its non-nuclear allies in the transatlantic alliance, as part of which they conduct training exercises that simulate the launch of nuclear weapons and nuclear bombing drills using aircraft belonging to non-nuclear states.  Those states also have input in the planning for the use of American nuclear weapons.

Thus, the nuclear doctrine released on Feb. 2 retains, on the whole, the policy of “unconditional offensive nuclear deterrence,” as previously proclaimed by past US presidents, but also lays the groundwork for not only radical updates to the country’s entire arsenal of nuclear missiles, but also legal safeguards for an agenda to create an entirely new strategic nuclear triad, which in the very near future will begin to replace the existing strategic nuclear triad, both in terms of new types of carriers that will be put into service for offensive strategic nuclear weapons and tactical nuclear weapons with new tactical and technical features, as well as in the form of new types of nuclear weapons that switch between high- and low-yield warheads.

At the same time, the entire command, control, and communications system for American nuclear missiles is going to be modernized.

As US military and political documents have often acknowledged, in order to strengthen its nuclear-missile component, over the coming decade the Pentagon will receive as much as $400 billion, and $1.2 trillion in the next 30 years.  The executive summary of the new nuclear doctrine concedes that in the coming years, expenditures on the program to replace and renew the country’s nuclear arsenal will equal 6.4 percent of the US defense budget, exceeding the current figure by three to four percentage points.

The prospects for a new nuclear triad

The nuclear strategy adopted in February specifies that the material and technical basis of the recreated strategic nuclear triad will consist of 400 single-warhead, ground-based ICBMs, presumably to be named the Minuteman IV, the first of which will materialize in 2029.  An increased number of launch facilities (450) will be built to field them, which will improve the survivability of this element of the strategic nuclear triad by dispersing this component of America’s strategic nuclear forces across several US states and creating up to 50 empty decoy launchers for such missiles.

This triad will also initially include up to 240 Trident II (D5) SLBMs installed on 12 COLUMBIA-class SSBNs with a larger displacement than the OHIO-class SSBNs: 21,000 tons vs. 19,000 tons, respectively.  Later these SSBNs will be replaced by new versions.  The first of this new class of nuclear submarines should be out on combat patrols by 2031.

The third element of the updated triad will consist of 60 heavy B-21 Raider bombers with air-launched nuclear cruise missiles and a flexible nuclear payload.  The construction of the first such bomber should be complete in 2025.  Later, these bombers will be equipped with a new long-range cruise missile with a nuclear warhead.

In addition, the new strategic nuclear triad will be bolstered by an unnamed number of medium-range dual capable bombers (able to drop bombs with either nuclear or conventional warheads).  The basis for the latter will be the new multi-role, F-35 fighter-bombers, which will be forward-deployed and capable of carrying out both ground attacks and well as air defense.  Those are already flying with the US Marines, which means that soon they’re going to show up on the airfields of many NATO and non-NATO US allies that sit adjacent to the borders of Russia and China.

To spite some American experts who advocated a transition to a strategic nuclear dyad, the commitment to maintaining all three elements of the current and future triad has been reiterated, which, in accordance with the final documents of the 2012 NATO summit, have in turn been combined into the “Chicago triad,” (a single force that incorporates both missile defense and conventional weapons), an area in which the United States has always and will always call all the shots.

Arms Control

In principle, Trump’s updated nuclear doctrine recognizes the prudence of furthering the goals of non-proliferation and ensuring control over nuclear missiles.  All that sounds quite promising.

But it’s certainly no secret that the United States is violating the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons by deploying nuclear weapons and the aircraft to deliver them inside the borders of five NATO member states.  The US Senate plans to refuse to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (ratified by Russia back in 2000), and the US National Nuclear Security Administration has been directed to prepare for underground tests of explosive nuclear devices.

It’s also worth remembering that the US has violated the Treaty on Open Skies, derailed the ratification of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, refused to discuss the draft European Security Treaty, unilaterally dissolved the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, and pulled the plug on talks regarding anti-satellite weapons.  Washington has blocked the adoption of an international Treaty for a WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East.  The Americans have blocked a total of more than 20 various international initiatives to prevent the deployment of weapons in outer space, including the draft of a relevant Russian-Chinese treaty.

The updated nuclear doctrine mentions the possibility of extending the New START Treaty, which will expire in 2021, for another five years, that is, until 2026.  And yet the US seems incapable of remembering that there is an organic relationship between strategic offensive and strategic defensive nuclear weapons, an example of the latter being the antimissile weapons that they have been stockpiling wildly and stationing around the globe, in addition to their forward-deployed arsenal, in the form of tactical nuclear and conventional weapons, which is positioned in the immediate vicinity of Russia’s borders.  Washington has sidestepped the implementation of the Presidential Nuclear Initiatives of 1991-1992, which were a series of political pledges to reduce tactical nuclear weapons and to withdraw the ones that had been deployed.

In accordance with the new nuclear doctrine, the US will not promise to refrain from a nuclear first strike or to reduce its level of combat readiness, but will preserve an agreement with Russia that neither side will train the sights of its strategic nuclear missiles on each other’s territory.

The Feb. 2 Nuclear Policy Review unfairly and without evidence claims that Russia has allegedly developed a new intermediate-range ground-launched cruise missile, code-named the SSC-8, claiming it was banned by the 1987 INF Treaty.  But no such missile exists in Russia.  In addition, this nuclear document never specifies where and when such a missile was tested or deployed.  The US had previously alleged that Moscow had “tested” three different ballistic missiles that supposedly fell under the definitions of the terminology in the 1987 treaty, but they later withdrew their “accusations,” because all of those had a completely different firing range that was not limited by the treaty.  In short, Washington clearly hasn’t been playing a pro game.

It is quite obvious that these cryptic, empty statements coming from the Pentagon and the State Department are designed to provide a smokescreen of words to disguise two simple facts about the implementation of the 1987 treaty.

First of all, the Americans are tossing out such allegations in order to camouflage their own readiness to create a new mobile, ground-based, nuclear-tipped, intermediate-range cruise missile, which, if added to their arsenal, would be a direct violation of the very INF Treaty that Washington is so loudly anxious to protect.

Second, such statements keep getting repeated in order to distract attention from the Americans’ real and numerous violations of this treaty.  The true problem lies in the fact that the Americans’ failed attempt on Jan. 31 of this year to intercept an intermediate-range ballistic missile using the new SM-3 Block IIA Interceptor near Hawaii was actually their 93rd violation of this treaty since 2001 – they have been using those banned intermediate- and shorter-range missiles as targets when testing the effectiveness of the interceptors of their ABM system.  The Pentagon isn’t going to stop doing this.

It’s also clear that the Russians aren’t going to stop insisting that the current administration fully comply with all provisions of the INF Treaty, and if the US is thinking about withdrawing from it, then Russia will immediately respond in kind, as President Vladimir Putin has already stated.

With the adoption of its new NPR, the Trump administration has obviously worsened the imbalance of the delicate mechanisms of control that exist in order to regulate a whole array of weapons that are clear threats to the world’s strategic stability.

Written by Vladimir Kozin, Source: Oriental Review

US Significantly Lowers Nuclear Threshold

On 5 June, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping adopted a joint statement on strengthening global strategic stability in the modern era. In the document, they have identified various factors that undermine global stability and international security.

In particular, both leaders have attached great significance to the nuclear restraint shown by all states in possession of such weapons of mass destruction (WMD). They have also emphasised that all nuclear powers should abandon the Cold War mentality and zero-sum games, reduce the role of nuclear weapons in their national security policies, and “reduce the threat of nuclear war”.

So why are the leaders of Russia and China focusing on the need to reduce “the threat of nuclear war”?

The reason is because this threat has actually grown substantially over the last decade and a half. It happened during the presidency of Barack Obama, but has become even more noticeable under the administration of US President Donald Trump, who took office in January 2017.

A comparative analysis of Russia and America’s doctrinal provisions justifying the use of nuclear weapons, for example, shows the following trend with regard to Washington’s potential use of WMD, and it is a fairly dangerous one.

While the nuclear strategy approved by Barack Obama in 2010 listed six reasons for their use, the strategy approved by Donald Trump in 2018 had 14. In Russia’s current military doctrine, meanwhile, the section covering the possible use of nuclear weapons lists just two conditions: 1) in response to the use of WMD against Russia; and 2) in response to the use of conventional weapons against Russia, but only if the existence of Russia itself is under threat. These conditions remain virtually unchanged from doctrine to doctrine.

As can be seen, the total number of current US guidelines for the use of nuclear weapons (14) is more than double the number under the presidency of Barack Obama and seven times higher than the number of Russian conditions.

So speculation that the US has lowered its nuclear threshold or, to put it another way, increased the possibility of nuclear weapon use has grown considerably.

But that is not all. The situation has a few more peculiarities.

Donald Trump’s nuclear strategy contains an increased number of provisions on the use of nuclear weapons that could be interpreted relatively freely and arbitrarily by the US due to their ambiguous wording. A total of eight of the 14 conditions in this category could be freely interpreted. For example, US nuclear forces could launch a nuclear strike in the event of “technological surprises” or “potential challenges”. But the US nuclear strategy for 2018 remains markedly silent about what exactly these “technological surprises” and “potential challenges” could be.

Another peculiarity of America’s current nuclear strategy is that it is considered to be “unconditional offensive nuclear deterrence” and has a wide range of differing strategic guidelines. These include “extended nuclear deterrence”, clarified as “a credible nuclear umbrella extended to over thirty allies and partners”, and the idea of “escalate to de-escalate”, that is, increasing the possibilities of using nuclear weapons to de-escalate conflicts using conventional weapons.

The US nuclear strategy is supported by US agreements on sharing nuclear responsibility (agreements on joint nuclear missions), that is, agreements signed by Washington on the deployment of nuclear weapons and nuclear training exercises with NATO member states, including those without nuclear weapons. Important elements of the US nuclear strategy include the deployment of their tactical nuclear weapons in Europe and the Asian part of Turkey, and NATO’s round-the-clock, year-round Baltic air-policing mission in the skies over the three Baltic states using dual-capable aircraft that can carry nuclear weapons on board.

A feature of America lowering its nuclear threshold is also the fact that military exercises in NATO countries are undergoing a transformation. Where exercises simulating the use of nuclear arsenals and exercises involving conventional weapons used to be carried out separately, exercises involving conventional weapons are now usually carried out with the conditional use of nuclear weapons.

Another feature of the US nuclear strategy is that all US presidents have the sole authority to launch a first “preventive and pre-emptive” nuclear strike, that is, they can use any kind of nuclear weapons, strategic or tactical, at their discretion, without the need to consult with Congress or declare war on the state or group of states against which the weapon will be used.

The US nuclear threshold is also being lowered by the fact that Washington is still adhering to the extremely dangerous “launch-on warning” concept, which provides for the use of nuclear weapons almost immediately upon warning that an intercontinental or submarine-launched ballistic missile has been launched by another state, that is, before its nuclear warheads reach US soil. But this concept involves the possibility of the accidental and unintentional use of nuclear weapons or their use following the mistaken identification of missiles with conventional warheads launched from outside the US and aimed elsewhere.

Another factor lowering the US nuclear threshold is that US nuclear forces can use low-yield nuclear warheads, i.e. with a yield of 5 kilotons or less, which is about a third of the yield of the bomb that the Americans dropped on Hiroshima. US military and political leaders use certain “humanitarian” motives to justify the use of such warheads, saying that they will result in far less radioactive contamination of the area than high-yield nuclear warheads. It seems pretty sinister.

Increasing the possibilities of using nuclear weapons will obviously raise the possibility of the US resuming its nuclear weapons tests at the Nevada Test Site. Such a move is provided for in Donald Trump’s nuclear doctrine, ruling out the possibility of Washington ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and, at the same time, making it likely that underground nuclear weapons testing will be resumed.

It is deeply disappointing that Washington rejected Moscow’s rather simple proposal to repeat the easily understood adage of the Cold War era that a nuclear war cannot be unleashed, because there will be no winners. It is symptomatic in this context that the US is categorically unwilling to commit to not using nuclear weapons first or to not using them at all.

Written by Vladimir Kozin, Source: ORIENTAL REVIEW

US grievances against Russia

>>Part I. An overview of the INF treaty<<

>>Part III. Russia’s stance on the future of the INF treaty<<

Will the INF Treaty Be Kept Beyond Its 30th Anniversary? Part II.

By the summer of 1991, the Soviet Union and US had completely eliminated all the land-based ballistic and cruise missiles and their launchers that were subject to the 1987 INF Treaty, as verified by extensive on-site inspections.

This was confirmed by both official Russian sources as well as a series of State Department reports, Adherence to and Compliance with Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and Commitments. Not one of those State Department reports contains any documented, fact-based examples of how the Russians have ever shirked their commitments under the provisions of the INF Treaty.

Feeble allusions to some kind of Russian “violations” of the 1987 treaty began to spread back in 2012, after two high-ranking representatives of the Obama administration met with the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, chaired by John Kerry. In June 2012, Republican Senator Michael Turner wrote a letter to the US National Security Council and to the heads of the American intelligence community, asking why Moscow’s tests of its strategic intercontinental ballistic missiles shouldn’t be considered a violation of the 1987 treaty.

In the response offered by US Under Secretary of Defense James Miller on Aug. 3 of that year, the latter stated that the Russian 2012 ICBM tests “do not fall under any of the provisions or restrictions set forth in the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles.” This was quite a reasonable answer, because in accordance with the Soviet-American and Russian-American treaties on the limitation and reduction of strategic offensive nuclear weapons, the term “intercontinental ballistic missiles” applies to missiles with a minimum range of 5,500 km, and thus the Russian ICBMs would not meet the definition of intermediate- and shorter-range missiles as found in the INF Treaty.

In December 2013, at the instigation of a number of senators, several US news sites once again began clamoring about Russian “violations” of the 1987 treaty. In 2013, a group of ten Republican senators, who had previously tried to pressure President Barack Obama over Russian “violations” of provisions of the INF Treaty, drafted an amendment to the FY 2014 defense appropriations bill. This amendment would require the 44th president’s administration to submit a report to Congress that would include any intelligence data available to NATO member states pertaining to Russian compliance with the INF Treaty.

The Russian ICBM RS-26, also known as Rubezh, was singled out for unfair criticism as well. It was patently obvious that the US lawmakers were complaining about this promising missile system because of its improved ability to pierce the American “missile shield.”

In an attempt to use political accusations to get rid of the RS-26 ICBMs, which has included claims that it actually has a shorter flight range, equal to that of an intermediate-range missile, US lawmakers have tried to trot out provisions of the INF Treaty as a legal basis for their efforts to get it banned, although the treaty has nothing whatsoever to do with the this ICBM, either directly or indirectly, since this missile is intercontinental.

Therefore, it couldn’t have been simpler for the Russians to fend off this attack: they released a statement that the missiles cited by the Americans were not subject to this agreement at all because it only applies to ballistic and cruise missiles with a range between 500 and 5,500 km. With no hope of progress on their attempts to mix this ICBM into the INF Treaty, Washington pulled it from the agenda.

But in 2014, newly strident voices were heard in Washington alleging Russian “violations” of the 1987 treaty.

There were then charges that Russia’s operational R-500 cruise missile (NATO classification SSC-7) was in violation of the 1987 treaty. But that weapon was also completely exempt from the restrictions in the treaty’s provisions, as it has a flight range below the 500-kilometer cutoff.

In 2014, the well-known Dutch authority on nuclear weapons, Hans Kristensen, who is a director at the Federation of American Scientists, read through the relevant computations in the US State Department’s report on compliance with arms-control treaties, and he came up with two very reasonable questions: why did the Americans not name the type of missile that Russia had allegedly tested and why did it not cite the time of the test? Later, the American arms-control analyst Kingston Reif pointed to these two gray areas as well, and added that the report also lacked information about the number of tests and the location where they were carried out.

At the special consultations on this issue held at the Russian Foreign Ministry in September 2015 between the heads of the arms-control divisions of the Russian foreign ministry and US State Dept., the American delegation was never able to provide their Russian counterparts with any documented evidence of Russian “violations” of that treaty.

In June 2015, a partially declassified report written by the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, claimed that Washington was considering deploying cruise missiles with nuclear warheads to Europe to offset Russian “violations” of the INF Treaty, although the goals set by that agreement had long been met.

When the Trump administration took over at the White House in 2017 it once again began reiterating those unfounded accusations of Russian “non-compliance” with the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles.

By February of this year, the New York Times was citing sources in the US administration in its claims that the Russian military had allegedly deployed a fully operational division of ground-launched surface-to-surface cruise missiles, which, according to the US, violates the 1987 treaty.

A similar statement was made in March 2017 by General Paul Selva, Vice Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, speaking at a House Armed Services Committee hearing in Washington in March 2017. He estimated that the system that has been developed puts most of the alliance’s sites in Europe at risk and that the Russians have deliberately deployed it in order to pose a threat to NATO and to facilities within the NATO area of responsibility. He added that he had raised this issue during discussions with the Russians, but he did not provide details of the accusations he had made.

The authors of the State Department’s April 2017 report on compliance with arms-control treaties pointed out that the US has been expressing concern about Russia’s conduct in regard to this issue, and during that time it has provided more than enough information to the Russians to enable them to identify the missile in question .

In the document mentioned above, the US State Department makes reference to Articles I, IV, VI, and VII of the INF Treaty, which prohibit the parties from any future possession of intermediate- or shorter-range ballistic or cruise missiles, launchers for such missiles, or any support equipment or structures associated with such missiles or launchers, and ban the production of any stages of such missiles. But simply citing these articles does not mean that the other party has violated some provisions of the 1987 treaty.

It has been reported that the Pentagon has come up with its own in-house designation for a “new Russian” mobile, ground-based cruise missile, calling it the SSC-8 (from an interview that the Russian newspaper Kommersant conducted with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov). But the simple fact that a foreign missile system has been assigned a certain classification doesn’t really tell us anything.

The State Dept. report included a very significant admission, disavowing two previous accusations by the Americans regarding alleged Russian “violations” of the INF Treaty, one of which concerned the operational R-500 missile and the other – the RS-26 ICBM (the State Department has withdrawn its complaints). This admission means that previously, when Washington was accusing Moscow of “violating” the treaty based on Russia’s deployment of these two types of missiles that were not actually subject to the treaty’s restrictions, the US was merely bluffing and attempting to block their deployment by simply circulating baseless accusations.

Like previous reports of this type, the US State Dept. briefing on the INF Treaty, which was released in April 2017, offers no compelling evidence of any Russian “violations.”

The American Congress has more than once urged the US to not only withdraw from the 1987 treaty, but also to arm American NATO allies that are not INF signatories with new ground-launched cruise missiles, in order to “retaliate” against Russia. There have also been calls to introduce specific new sanctions against Russia, due to Moscow’s alleged non-compliance with the terms of that treaty.

Another justification that has been offered for a US pullout from the INF Treaty is that China, which is not bound by that agreement, will supposedly be able to develop an arsenal of nuclear missiles that will eclipse that of the US.

The 2018 National Defense Authorization Act, which was introduced in Congress in June 2017, would authorize the development of a new, conventional, road-mobile, ground-launched cruise missile system with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers, i.e., precisely falling under the restrictions set by the 1987 treaty.

The bill that has been submitted accuses Russia of “violations” of the INF Treaty and allows the US to fully or partially suspend that agreement’s authority and to deploy additional missile-defense assets in Europe, in addition to the ground- and sea-based weaponry already stationed there. It would allow the Pentagon to refuse to comply with Article VI of the treaty, if it can be proven that Russia has violated that agreement. This article prohibits either party from producing or flight-testing intermediate-range or shorter-range missiles, or producing any stages or launchers of such missiles.

The bill directs a number of the country’s relevant departments and agencies to analyze the extent to which the Russian RS-26 ICBM is or is not in violation of the INF Treaty. If it turns out that this ICBM is not subject to the new START Treaty that is currently binding on Russia and the US, then this will mean that the RS-26 will be deemed to be in violation of the treaty.

The bill authorizes the allocation of $50 million to develop a new missile system “in response to noncompliance of the Russian Federation with its obligations under the INF Treaty,” of which $25 million will be invested in the research, development, and production of new American missiles “with a maximum range of 5,500 kilometers.”

Both the House and Senate versions of the bill, which were overwhelmingly approved in both chambers, have been submitted to a conference committee for reconciliation, after which the consensus version of the bill will be sent to Donald Trump to request his signature, which – if given – will make the bill a valid law. The consensus version of the bill has already established a budget for these goals of $58 million. The background materials offered by Congress state that in light of the Russian Federation’s “violation” of the INF Treaty, the United States is legally justified in suspending its implementation entirely or in refusing to abide by a number of its articles.

The Washington Post acknowledges that the law calls for “[t]he establishment of a new medium-range ground missile program.” That article also argues that the development of such a program “ … would open the door to the United States withdrawing from the treaty and building new medium-range missiles of its own.”

Some American analysts have begun to question the wisdom of a US withdrawal from this treaty, but their voices are still being drowned out by the declamations of those who favor resolving the problem of the treaty in this manner.

For example, a July 29, 2017 editorial in the New York Times pointed out that the creation of a new US intermediate-range missile capable of flying up to 5,500 km, in addition to the withdrawal of Washington from the 1987 treaty, would “give leaders [of the two countries] little time to react.” The newspaper also criticized the readiness of the country’s military and political leaders to spend more than one trillion dollars to modernize the nation’s nuclear arsenal. The NYT believes that the US decision to withdraw from the INF Treaty would destroy the very framework of arms control, eliminate support for other, similar treaties, and cast further doubt on Washington’s commitment to its responsibilities – and those pledges have already begun to look shaky now that Donald Trump has pulled out of the Paris Climate Protocol. The newspaper’s editorial board quite rightly noted that the 1987 treaty includes a mechanism for resolving disputes between its signatories, and the US, backed by its allies, should pursue a solution in that forum, by which the board is clearly referring to the two countries’ Special Verification Commission.

The newspaper warned that the new Nuclear Posture Review being drafted by the Trump administration – a document that traditionally spells out the place and role of nuclear weapons in US defense and foreign policy – could stymie the plans of former President Barack Obama to try to reduce the numbers of nuclear weapons and to somewhat reduce their role in the country’s security strategy.

Speaking out against Washington’s renunciation of the INF Treaty, Thomas Graham, an American diplomat and member of the National Advisory Board at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, noted that by threatening to completely dismantle the INF Treaty, Congress risks making matters worse by opening the door to Russian deployment of intermediate- and shorter-range ballistic missiles in Europe. In his view, a US withdrawal from that treaty would remove all limits on Moscow’s intermediate- and shorter-range nuclear forces – limits that have strengthened the security of the United States and its allies for three decades.

Another American arms-control specialist, James Acton, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has noted that although the 1987 treaty was signed 30 years ago in a quite different geopolitical context, it still serves the security interests of the United States and its allies. And yet this analyst has suggested that American heavy bombers with air-launched cruise missiles be stationed in Europe, just in case the INF Treaty is terminated for some reason.

It is possible that the issue of Russian “violations” of the INF Treaty will be mentioned in the updated Nuclear Posture Review, which is being drafted in accordance with instructions received from Donald Trump last April.

Given this picture, the threat of a US withdrawal from the 1987 INF Treaty is looming as an increasingly real possibility.

Of course that would require a commensurate response from the Russian side, should this threat materialize during Donald Trump’s time in office. He would definitely go down in history as the leader whose abandonment of a treaty sparked a new round in the nuclear arms race, violating the nuclear nonproliferation regime, compromising the world’s strategic stability, and escalating the degree of mistrust between many states.

To be continued…

Written by Vladimir KozinSource: OrientalReview

US steadily moving towards withdrawal from INF Treaty

Having officially declared suspension of its participation in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty of 1987 (the INF Treaty) in early February and full withdrawal from August 2, 2019, the United States continues its unilaterally launched process of severance of the important document, which made it possible to eliminate two classes of intermediate- and short-range nuclear missiles by summer 1991.

Earlier, it seemed that the Treaty suited Washington in all aspects. Of course it did. Under its terms, the Soviet Union destroyed two times more nuclear missile carriers than the United States. But now the White House has a totally different scenario in mind.

It claims the reason for its withdrawal from the INF Treaty is Russia’s failure to observe it, allegedly by design and deployment of a new land-based cruise missile, 9M729. But America has been unable to provide any proof of that so far. Despite that, it has not been satisfied with numerous explanations Moscow has given to Washington in the last five years during about 30 official consultations with US government officials.

The United States has long rejected Russian initiatives aimed at settling complaints in the context of execution of the 1987 treaty via mutual transparency measures. Washington is not willing to continue the dialog, but has decided to present the Russian party with an ultimatum, of an odd format and unacceptable content, demanding destruction of 9M729 cruise missiles.

It is fair to ask: has the US party not violated the INF Treaty itself? Facts, being “stubborn things,” say that it has. And not once.

In the last almost 20 years, the Pentagon has used intermediate- and short-range target missiles 117 times when checking the efficiency of its global missile defense system. These were six new versions of target missiles, specifically developed by the United States to simultaneously pursue two goals: testing GMD interceptor missiles and also intermediate- and short-range missiles. The first use of interceptor missiles of the anti-missile shield by the US military for intercepting short-range target missiles that fall under the terms of the Treaty is dated October 2, 1999, i.e. almost 20 years ago.

To put it briefly, the United States actually and unilaterally withdrew from the Treaty long ago. Then what are the true reasons for its withdrawal from it now, if it has so far been unable to prove its breach by the Russian Federation?

It seems that the US Administration had several motives to do so.

First. The US wants to create and deploy new types of road-mobile cruise and ballistic intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe, Asia and Asia Pacific in order to contain the alleged “Russian, Chinese, Iranian and North Korean threat.”

Second. Washington intends to repeat the dangerous situation created by NATO’s “double decision” adopted in December 1979, when the alliance gave a green light to storing 846 US intermediate-range nuclear missiles in some European countries, which resulted in an extremely intense nuclear crisis between the US/NATO and the Soviet Union.

Third. The US wants to get Russia’s consent to unilaterally destroy some new ballistic and cruise missiles of the short, intermediate and intercontinental range, and future hypersonic systems that do not fall within the scope of the 1987 Treaty only in order to prevent Washington from withdrawing from the Treaty

Fourth. Initiating withdrawal from the INF Treaty, the US military and political leaders are trying to get China engaged in a renewed dialog on restrictions of intermediate- and short-range missiles, in which it does not want to participate.

Fifth. Artificially escalating the situation with nuclear missiles, the White House would like to put pressure on its NATO allies, getting them to increase their military spending to 2% of their respective GDPs and later to 4%.

Obviously, the breakup of the INF Treaty will have most negative consequences for international security and global stability. It may trigger an arms race in several areas, such as nuclear missiles, missile defense and outer space. The entire system of arms control, where Washington already has a negative attitude about the twelve agreements and treaties signed earlier or proposed as international projects, will be eroded further. This may also jeopardize the non-proliferation regime and prospects of further restrictions of nuclear weapons.

But the United States does not seem to worry about these prospects. And this is sad. In such circumstances, Washington and its NATO allies are solely responsible for the aggravation of the international situation.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin, Source - “Info SCO: Shanghai Cooperation Organization magazine” №15, April 2019

>>中文文章<<

>>Статья на русском<<

Ukraine Crisis Webinar: Peace Activists and Experts Gather

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин принял участие в ТВ-передаче, организованной миротворческими организациями США.


В.П. Козин: "Вместо того, чтобы дать России гарантии безопасности, США и НАТО дали ей гарантии опасности".

 

 


В мероприятии также приняли участие Катрина ван ден Хювел, главный редактор отдела в журнале "Нация", обозреватель газеты "Вашингтон пост", и Энн Райт, полковник вооруженных сил США в отставке, экс-дипломат.

2 января 2022г.

>>Ссылка на полную версию вебинара<<

Ukraine at war vs Donbas. NATO/Kiev’s goals

At the end of January 2022 the situation around Donbas is very tense and dangerous:

1) there are now 150 thousand Ukrainian troops near Donbas (some days ago it was 120 thousand); Donbass has only 35,000 troops that cannot attack Ukraine (statement by Russian Permanent Representative at the OSCE Lukashevich January 27,2022: link;

2) the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) has finalized the master plan to attack Donbas;

3) the USA has delivered 250 tons of military equipment and ammunition (MEA) to the UAF by using 15 heavy cargo aircraft;

4) 45 more U.S. heavy cargo aircraft are to arrive to Ukraine with MEA;

5) civil hospitals in Ukraine have been converted into military ones;

6) any regular annual vacations for the Ukrainian GIs have been cancelled for indefinite period of time;

7) M141 Bunker Defeat Munitions have arrived to the UAF attacking forces (Donbas does not have them; such munitions are to be used in offense, rather than in defense);

8) several public protests against war versus Donbas have been staged near the Ukrainian Parliament;

9) Kiev continues to violate a ceasefire accord in Donbas: according to the report of the OSCE SMM in Ukraine dated January 28th, 2022 has stated:

OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) Daily Report 20/2022 issued on 28 January 2022

Summary In Donetsk region, the SMM recorded 173 ceasefire violations, including six explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 510 ceasefire violations in the region. In Luhansk region, the Mission recorded 93 ceasefire violations, including 13 explosions. Link.

The USA alone has delivered heavy weapons to Ukraine totally $ 2,7 billion since 2014, plus recently $ 650 million for major arms supplies in 2021, and plus $ 200 million for current deliveries of the Javelin anti-tank system (FGM-148).

All NATO countries are morally and militarily pushing Ukrainian Army to conquer Donbas, and to get back this territory where all population does not want to live under current ultranationalist Ukrainian regime. They are inciting Kiev to attack Donbas. Their reference to “Russia is going to attack Ukraine” is fabricated fiction to divert the world community attention to imminent attack of Donbas by Kiev.

So, the USA and NATO are direct accomplices of Kiev’s looming aggression versus Donbas. Their goals in inciting war against Donbas are:

1) to make Ukraine anti-Russian state and pro-American for good;

2) to convert Ukraine into a military bridgehead vs Russia and Belarus;

3) to deploy permanently in Ukraine offensive systems, missile defense interceptors, and the U.S. nuclear-capable strategic bombers;

4) to help Kiev to return Donbas and later Crimea; and 5) to create in this region a frozen conflict to be used as pretext to intimidate and demonize Russia and Belarus.

Kiev also refused to implement the Minsk accord completely – all its 13 paragraphs.

Ukrainian President Zelensky is preparing to wage war versus Donbas and is seeking for fulfilling 5 major aims:

1) to win once again at the Presidential elections;

2) to disrupt current talks between Russia and the USA/NATO on strategic stability;

3) to drag NATO into a conflict with Russia;

4) to get Donbas back to Ukraine;

5) to admit Ukraine into NATO ranks at the upcoming NATO Summit in Madrid in June 2022.

Both Ukraine and the USA/NATO are engaged in a state-sponsored terrorism versus Donbas.

Written by V. Kozin

Ukraine will never abide by any ceasefire

April 20, 2025

Ukraine massively violated Easter truce

Russia has been targeted more than 1,300 times by Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) in the less than 24 hours since the unilateral declaration of an Easter truce by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russian MoD has announced on April 20.

On April 19th, 2025 he declared to pause in all hostilities since 6:00 PM Moscow time the same day that lasted until midnight between April 20-21. So, the overall truce banning all kinds of military activity on the basis of reciprocity has been proposed for totally 30 hours.

Unfortunately, illegitimate ex-president of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky refused to respond to such humanitarian offer in practical terms. Earlier he torpedoed all dozens of truces proposed on the eve of many international public holidays.

Russian MoD noted that UAF has attacked overnight a number of civilian areas and military positions located in Donetsk People’s Republic, and three Russian bordering regions (oblasts) like Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod Regions in western Russia. “The Ukrainian units fired 444 times from cannons and mortars at the positions of our troops, [and] carried out 900 strikes with quadcopter drones,” the MoD said. Kiev’s troops used 48 plane-type UAVs against the Russian military, including one in Crimea, the statement read.

Such massive attacks resulted in “civilian casualties and injuries, as well as damage to civilian facilities,” according to the MoD announcement.

Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Ambassador-at-large overseeing investigations of war crimes conducted by Ukraine, predicted that by the end of the Easter truce more reports of its violations by Ukraine would be coming in. The breaches of the Easter truce suggest that Zelensky is unable to stick to any pause in the fighting, ambassador outlined. “I do not remember a single ceasefire that would be successful and long-term, so I do not yet see any serious grounds to say that Ukraine is capable of doing this [abide by a truce],” he stressed.

Gross violations of an ‘energy moratorium’ – again by Ukraine

At the same time Kiev has violated another truce proposed by President Donald Trump who on March 18 during a phone call with Vladimir Putin asked both Moscow and Kiev to introduce a 30-day reciprocal pause on targeting their energy facilities.  

While Russia has never hit any Ukrainian energy infrastructure, UAF has attacked Russian energy facilities 111 times between March 18-April 17 in fifteen Russian Regions, Russian Energy Ministry said. On April 18-19, after the partial ‘energy ceasefire’ expired, UAF attacked 20 more such Russian assets – ten facilities per each day.

So, Kiev totally violated ‘energy assets attack ban’ 131 times.


Food for thought:

It is very strange that many biassed NATO and the EU countries demanding exclusively from Russia to implement various ceasefires are persistently turning a blind eye to Ukrainian unwillingness to respect and observe any of them.

It explains why the current ultra-nationalist regime entrenched in Kiev with NATO and the EU direct and massive assistance deny any type of truce and subsequently any comprehensive political settlement of the armed conflict it has initiated in April 2014.

By continuing their tremendous military, financial, political and moral support to Ukraine,

members of these two alliances de facto incite and prolong the most acute armed confrontation in Europe after the end of the WWWII initiated by them and Ukraine.


Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Updated report on Kiev’s war in Donbas

February 20th, 2022

1. Dangerous plan

 
The intelligence of the Donetsk People's Republic (UPR) has obtained a plan for the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) in the Donbas, the main purpose of which is to oust the Russian-speaking population from the territory. This was stated at a briefing by the deputy head of the People's Militia Department of the DPR Eduard Basurin.

"The purpose of the Ukrainian offensive operation is to "clean up" the territory of the people's republics from the Russian-speaking population, bumping it out into the territory of Russia, and gaining control over the entire territory of the people's republics," he said.

In his words, the UAF plan provides for the encirclement and blocking of large cities in Donbas: Donetsk, Lugansk, Gorlovka and Alchevsk.

https://life.ru/p/1472682?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop

2. Kiev seeks NW

Speaking at the Munich security conference on February 19, Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky pointed out that in 1994 Ukraine joined the Budapest Memorandum and gave up its nuclear weapons [NW] in exchange for security guarantees, suggesting the move could be reversed

Note: Such statement has not been criticized at the 2022 Munich Security Conference.

3. Ceasefire violations: latest report

The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) daily report # 39/2022 issued on 19 February 2022 admitted that:

(a) in Donetsk region, the SMM recorded 591 ceasefire violations, including 553 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 222 ceasefire violations in (b) in Luhansk region, the SMM recorded 975 ceasefire violations, including 860 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 648 ceasefire violations in the region.

So, there have been total 1556 ceasefire violations, or 1.78 times more than a day before (870 violations).

https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/512629

4. The UAF aggression continues

According to the DPR, the Ukrainian military continued shelling at the settlements of the DPR and LPR from 122-mm artillery systems, 120 and 82-mm mortars, machine-gun and automatic grenade launchers. 27 cities and other populated sites have been shelled by indiscriminate UAF fire.

"As of 5:00 p. m. [15:00 GMT February 19], the enemy opened fire 39 times on the DPR territory... launching 424 shells and mines. Areas of 21 settlements in the DPR came under fire. Various types of grenade launchers and small arms were also used. In total, more than 627 shells, mines and grenades were fired on the DPR territory," the militia said in a statement.

Earlier in the night of February 20, Kiev forces had fired twelve 120-mm caliber mines at the city of Donetsk and four 122-mm shells at the settlement of Oleksandrivka located in Donetsk suburbs. Several other settlements in DPR were also shelled in the early hours of February 20 using grenades and mines prohibited by the Minsk agreement (paragraph 2).

Defenders of Donbas have not crossed the line of disengagement all these days when the UAF started military invasion vs Donbas.Russia believes that to de-escalate the situation around Ukraine, “it is fundamentally important” to implement an array of steps, including the halt of arms supplies to Ukraine, the recall of all Western advisers and instructors from there, and NATO countries’ refusal to hold any joint exercises with the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Kiev regime prevents 400 foreign newsmen to visit areas adjacent the line of disengagement between Donbas and Ukraine to conceal the UAF attacks.

5. Genocide

According to the UNO, during two armed aggressions conducted by Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2014-2015, and later about 14,000 civilians in Donbas have been killed. Moscow will send to Berlin and Washington a dossier describing investigation of massive graves found in DPR and LPR filled with people killed by the UAF by shots and heavy devices. More than 80 such graves with group killings have been found so far.

On February 20, 2022 two civilians have been killed, several persons have been wounded, five living houses have been destroyed in Donbas by the UAF.

During current Ukrainian armed invasion in Donbas the UAF is still shelling civilian infrastructure and terrorizing the peaceful population in Donbas in order to complicate living conditions for the Donbas people.

6. Hypocrisy

The EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell says the European Union condemns the shelling of civilian areas in southeastern Ukraine (Donbas), but sees no proof that Kiev is preparing an attack against Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. "The EU condemns the use of heavy weaponry and indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas, which constitute a clear violation of the Minsk agreements and international humanitarian law," Borrell said in February 20 statement.

At the same time, he claimed that: "The EU sees no grounds for allegations coming from the non-governmental controlled areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of a possible Ukrainian attack." Blatant lie.

Russia still believes that to de-escalate the situation around Ukraine, it is fundamentally important to implement an array of steps, including the halt of arms supplies to Ukraine, the recall of all Western advisers and instructors from there, and NATO countries’ refusal to hold any joint exercises with the UAF.

7. Influx of refugees

A total of 16,747 people have been evacuated since yesterday” [February 19], the LPR announced. As of Saturday morning [February 20], around 25,000 people have crossed the border with Russia from the LPR side.

Acting head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russia Alexander Chupriyan said that totally more than 53,000 refugees from Donbass have already arrived in Russia. 60% percent of them are children.

Nevertheless, still too many “Thomas the Unbeliver” in NATO assert that it is not true.

Note: The issue of current refugees from Donbas has not been debated at the Munich Security Conference at all.

8. Holders of Russian passports in Donbas

As of February 15, 2022, the number of Russian citizens holding Russian passports who live in the DNR and the LPR is 775,620 people.

Another 170 thousand people are still undergoing the procedure of obtaining citizenship.

The number of residents of Donbass who have applied for Russian citizenship, according to the latest data, is about 950 thousand people.

 
Written by Vladimir P. Kozin 

V Bratislave vystúpil popredný ruský expert Vladimír Petrovič Kozin, hovoril o jadrových zbraniach a raste napätia medzi Ruskom a USA

V dňoch 9. až 11. apríla navštívil Slovensko Vladimír Petrovič Kozin, popredný expert Centra vojensko-politických štúdií, člen – korešpodent Ruskej akadémie  vied, profesor Akadémie vojenských vied Ruskej federácie, kandidát historických vied

Ruský expert V. P. Kozin je držiteľom viacerých prestížnych vedeckých titulov a vyznamenaní, jeho práca je známa odborníkom v celosvetovom meradle. Dlhšiu dobu pôsobil na Ministerstve zahraničných vied ZSSR i Ruskej federácie a patrí k popredným ruským bezpečnostným analytikom a prognostikom a určitú dobu, pôsobil aj ako poradca dnešného ruského prezidenta Vladimíra Putina.

Vladimír Petrovič Kozin je autorom celého radu odborných monografií, k jeho najznámejším monografiám patria  monografie Evolution of the U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense and Russia’s Stance» (1945-2013), “U.S. Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Reduction or Modernization? či na prednáške v Bratislave spomínaná  najnovšia monografia  Evolution of the U.S. strategic and tactical nuclear weapons and their employment pattern in the XXI century. Okrem radu monografií je V. P. Kozin autorom niekoľkých desiatok odborných štúdií, publikovaných v prestížnych odborných svetových periodikách a je autorom obrovského množstva vedecko-populárnych článkov venovaných vojensko-bezpečnostnej oblasti, určených širšej verejnosti.

Ruský expert sa na stretnutí v Bratislave stretol s vyučujúcimi a študentami Vysokej školy medzinárodných a verejných vzťahov (VŠMVV Praha, Bratislava), k ďalšiemu stretnutiu s odborníkmi, žurnalistami i záujemcami prišlo o deň neskôr v Inštitúte ASA (analýzy, stratégie, alternatívy) v Bratislave. Vladimír Petrovič Kozin takisto poskytol interview slovenským a českým médiám.

Vladimír Petrovič Kozin počas prednášky oboznámil odborníkov i záujemcov z radov širšej verejnosti s faktami, týkajúcimi sa procesu výskumu, vývoja a zavádzania amerických taktických jadrových zbraní do výzbroje amerických ozbrojených síl, so zreteľom na moderné jadrové doktríny USA a NATO. V. P. Kozin počas svojej prednášky uviedol, že Američania sú jediným štátom na svete, ktorý má rozpracovanú koncepciu preventívneho jadrového úderu proti iným štátom a Američania ako jediní aj jadrové zbrane vo vojnovom konflikte aj použili.  V Japonsku proti mestám Nagasaki a Hirošima, nasadenie amerických jadrových zbraní znamenalo smrť státisícov japonských civilistov.

Svojej nebezpečnej koncepcie doktríny “preventívneho úderu” sa Američania nemienia vzdať ani v 21.storočí. USA sa otvorene odmietajú vzdať svojich globálnych ambícii a sú pripravení reagovať okamžite v prípade, ak by potenciálna hrozba znamenala hrozbu pre USA a ich spojencov. Časť amerických politikov pritom dnes otvorene označuje Rusko a Čínu za hrozbu ktoré ohrozujú americké záujmy a hodnoty.  Okrem Číny a Ruska vnímajú Američania ako hrozbu aj iné krajiny – Severnú Kóreu, Irán, Sýriu či územia pod kontrolou Islamského štátu (Irak, Sýria).

Počas svojej prednášky V. P. Kozin venoval pomerne veľkú pozornosť novej upravenej Stratégii národnej bezpečnosti USA. Koncepciu “zachovania mieru prostredníctvom sily” prezentoval po prvý krát americký prezident Ronald Reagan v časoch Studenej vojny medzi ZSSR a USA. Nová Stratégia národnej bezpečnosti USA obsahuje prvky, ktorých cieľom je na prvý pohľad minimalizovať riziká použitia jadrových zbraní a dokonca načrtáva možnosti uzavretia nových bilaterálnych dohôd medzi USA a inými štátmi, nové návrhy dohôd sú však značne nevyvážené a nevýhodné pre neamerickú stranu, americké návrhy sú politicky či bezpečnostne neprijateľné pre Rusko či Čínu. Američanmi predstavovaná aktualizovaná Stratégia národnej bezpečnosti USA umožňuje Washingtonu zasahovať do vnútorných záležitostí iných štátov, prostredníctvom využívania širokej škály mocenských metód a nástrojov, vrátane koncepcie posilňovania ozbrojených síl NATO v blízkosti západných ruských hraníc, či posilňovania amerických síl v Juhočínskom mori.  Takéto predstavy však nemieni ani Rusko a ani Čína akceptovať.

Súčasťou vystúpenia  V.P.Kozina neboli len historické fakty, týkajúce sa americkej nukleárnej doktríny, či sovietskej a ruskej koncepcie použitia jadrových zbraní, ktorú definoval súčasný ruský prezident Vladimír Putin. Ruská vojenská jadrová doktrína jasne obmedzuje možnosť použitia jadrových zbraní dvoma hypotetickými, čisto defenzívnymi spôsobmi. V prvom prípade ako reakciu na  na agresiu proti Rusku a proti ruským spojencom, keď agresor využije k útoku voči Rusku a jeho spojencom jadrové a iné zbrane hromadného ničenia, a v druhom prípade pri mohutnom útoku s použitím konvenčných zbraní, za predpokladu, že by týmto útokom bola ohrozená samotná existencia ruského štátu.

Väčšina faktov, ktoré V. P. Kozin na stretnutí prezentoval umožňuje nielen mapovať proces vývoja, šírenia i možností kontroly jadrového potenciálu veľmocí  Ruska, Číny, USA/NATO v kontexte globálnej bezpečnosti, ale aj identifikuje proces modernizácie jadrových taktických zbraní v najbližšej budúcnosti, pričom v niektorých aspektoch V. P. Kozin naznačuje predpokladaný trend vývoja až do roku 2075.

Kozin počas prednášky hovoril aj o dohodách START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty – Dohoda o znížení počtu strategických zbraní). Posledná dohoda START-3 bola podpísaná dňa 8.4.2010 v Prahe (Medvedev a Obama). Dohoda znižovala počet strategických nukleárnych hlavíc pre každú z krajín, určovala nové pravidlá pre vzájomnú kontrolu a takisto potvrdzovala, možnosť predlžovania dohody. Dnes sa kvôli jednostranným americkým krokom dohoda START-3 otriasa v základoch a stávame sa svedkami opätovného rastu napätia medzi dvoma nukleárnymi veľmocami – Ruskom a USA.

Pomerne veľkú pozornosť venoval ruský odborník V. P. Kozin americkým porušeniam Dohody o raketách krátkeho a stredného doletu. Túto Dohodu o raketách stredného a krátkeho doletu uzavreli hlavní predstavitelia ZSSR (Gorbačov) a USA (Reagan) v roku 1987. Na základe dohody sa ZSSR a USA sa okrem iného zaviazali, že nebudú vyvíjať a skúšať nové balistické a okrídlené rakety pozemných síl stredného doletu (od 1000 do 5500 km) a krátkeho doletu (500 až 1000 km), predstavitelia oboch veľmocí sa  v roku 1987 dohodli aj na likvidácii veľkej časti existujúcich odpaľovacích zariadení.

Američania sú však dnes rozhodnutí dohodu jednostranne vypovedať a odstúpiť od nej, pričom z porušovania dohody obviňujú Ruska. Podľa informácii V.P. Kozina však práve Američania narušili túto vzájomnú dohodu od roku 1999 108x (od roku 2001 Američania narušili túto dohodu 96x), posledný krát Američania dohodu narušili v  roku 2018, kedy americké rakety protivzdušnej obrany zostreľovali pri cvičení americkú raketu nad Tichým oceánom. Parametre  zostreľovanej americkej rakety s doletom 5,5 tisíca km sú v rozpore s uzavretou a existujúcou dohodou medzi Ruskom a USA.  Ruský expert V. P. Kozin takisto poukázal na skutočnosť, že aj americké snahy postaviť mimo akýchkoľvek dohôd strategické americké bombardéry B-52H (schopné niesť jadrové bomby či hlavice) umožňuje Američanom výrazne zvyšovať potenciál amerických strategických útočných jadrových síl, takýto trend a používanie „dvojakého metra“ sú však pre Rusko neakceptovateľné.

Ruský expert V. P. Kozin počas svojho vystúpenia uviedol, že Washington vedome zvyšuje napätie vo svete a ignoruje ruské obavy, ktoré priamo súvisia s neprijateľnými americkými aktivitami. Americké kroky tak majú negatívny dopad na bezpečnostnú situáciu v Európe i vo svete, pretože Rusko (rovnako ako Čína) nemôžu a ani nebudú zanedbávať možnosti vlastnej obrany.

Súčasná americká jadrová doktrína, ktorá obsahuje klauzulu o preventívnom americkom jadrovom údere potvrdzuje, že Američania sú pripravení uchýliť sa k jadrovým útokom, aby zabránili Rusku v použití jadrových zbraní s cieľom vážne oslabiť možnosti obrany Ruska. Washington by si však mal uvedomiť vysoký stupeň nebezpečenstva, ktorý však vzniká pri prekladaní teoretických doktrinálnych usmernení do oblastí praktického vojenského plánovania.

Podľa ruského experta V.P. Kozina ešte nebezpečnejšie je presvedčenie amerických vojenských odborníkov , že dokážu spoľahlivo  viesť konflikt s použitím jadrových zbraní v obmedzenom meradle a že takýto konflikt sa nemôže vymknúť kontrole. Opak je pravdou, konflikt s nízkou intenzitou s použitím jadrových zbraní nezabráni vzniku veľkej jadrovej raketovej vojny.

V súvislosti s americkými krokmi bola Moskva prinútená vziať do úvahy nové skutočnosti a prijať potrebné opatrenia na zvýšenie vlastnej bezpečnosti. Kvôli aktivitám Washingtonu tak prichádza k zhoršeniu bezpečnostnej situácie vo svete. Rusko dôrazne odmieta americké tvrdenia, že by porušovalo svoje záväzky vyplývajúce z medzinárodných dohôd, dohody porušujú Američania.

Vladimír Kozin oboznámil slovenskú verejnosť aj s faktami a návrhmi ruskej strany, ktoré by mohli prispieť k znižovaniu napätia a viedli by k objektívnemu hodnoteniu parametrov v sfére kontroly zbrojenia a oblasti plnenia príslušných zmluvných záväzkov tak zo strany Ruska, ako aj Spojených štátov. Potrebné však je, aby boli Američania ochotní sadnúť si za rokovací stôl a mali chuť skutočne riešiť existujúce problémy, nie násilne presadzovať vlastné predstavy. Vystúpenia ruského špecialistu V. P. Kozina sa stretli u slovenského publika s veľkým ohlasom.

Autor: Branislav Krasnovský, Zdroj: “Hlavné správy”

V. Kozin: Russia's Unprecedented Actions To Disempower the USA

Vladimir Kozin explains why Russia is pulling out of the Open Skies Treaty. At 29:29, Vladimir lays it all out: expulsion of US diplomats; forbidding Russian citizens from working in US embassy and consulates; expulsion of US and Western-funded NGOs, US Ambassador sent home for consultations; Blinkin "blinked" in Ukraine, and who tops Russia's "LIST of UNFRIENDLY NATIONS?"

Part One deals with the Open Skies Treaty and Party Two 29:29 deals with that fact that US-Russian diplomacy doesn't exist.

V. Kozin: US Russia expulsion of diplomats, Ukraine Aggression in Donbass, Hope for the Future

Vladimir Kozin, Russian diplomat and special advisor the presidential administration returns for another rare perspective of Russia's foreign policy towards the US and the West. We are in more danger today than ever before because of Washington's unwillingness to be trusted.

В.П. Козин: «Непонятно, почему страны ЕС защищают человека (Навального), который обвинен судом в мошенничестве и отмывании денег…. Что касается военных учений, недавно проведенных Россией на своей территории, то они никак не могут быть сопоставимы с военными учениями НАТО «Защитник Европы-2021», которые будут длиться гораздо больше, чем российские, и в таких учениях альянса будут задействованы 26 государств, входящих в НАТО и не входящих в него». … Что касается встречи президентов России и США, то она должна быть заранее хорошо подготовлена, иметь более четкую повестку дня. Кроме того, для ее проведения должна существовать более благоприятная политическая атмосфера, чем господствующая в настоящее время».

V. Kozin: USA - Russia Relations, New START, Navalny Hoax Exposed, and Sputnik V Vaccine

Important interview with Vladimir Kozin, special adviser to the Russian Presidential Administration. He talked about hope for the New START Treaty, not much hope for improved US Russian relations under Biden Administration. Surprised me with his experience with the Russian Sputnik V vaccine.

Vladimir Kozin - A Russian View on Afghanistan and the US Retreat

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО дал интервью независимому телеканалу США «Реджис-шоу» по афганской проблематике.

В.П. Козин: «Движение «Талибан» не имеет ни военных планов вторгнутся в Центральную Азию, ни технических возможностей, ни военных потенциалов, ни людской силы, чтобы вторгнуться в центральноазиатские республики бывшего Советского Союза, и захватить центральную часть России, примыкающую к ним».

Эфир от 15 сентября 2021г.

Vladimir Kozin - Avian Bird Flu - Counter Offensive - Wagner to Belgorod

 

Dr. Vladimir Kozin joins Regis Tremblay  to discuss and analyze the Avian Bird Flu released from the US biolabs in Ukraine; the Ukrainian counter offensive over the weekend; and Yevgeny Prigozhin sending his Wagner army to defend the city and people of Belgorod on the Russian-Ukrainian border.

 

Vladimir Kozin: UN Treaty to Ban Nuclear Weapons

50 countries signed the United Nations treaty to ban nuclear weapons. The five nuclear powers, US, Russia, China, Britain and France objected. Kozin comments on the treaty and its drawbacks and why Russia objected. Their reason will surprise you.

There are positive features in the TPNW

For the first time since the NW have been invented, tested and used in 1945 the Treaty on Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) will become an international law starting from January 22, 2021.

The TPNW is a concrete specific step forward to denuclearize the world on the global scale, and to add nuclear arms to two other international treaties on elimination of the WMD namely conventions banning biological and bacteriological weapons and chemical weapons entered into force respectively in 1975 and 1997.

The TPNW has easy provisions for enacting it: unlike the CTBT that could be enacted only after 44 specific nations on the globe will ratify it, the TPNW will become operational if only 50 unspecified states sign and ratify it, and after 3 months’ time it will be valid. In the long run the TPNW will give strong impetus to nuclear arms control and nuclear disarmament.

There are some negative setbacks related to the TPNW

1. So far it has been signed and ratified by 50 states that is nearly 25 percent of the world community.

2. There are 9 NW states in the world. No country possessing NW has ever signed and ratified the TPNW.

3. The TPNW does not contain any fixed date to eliminate nuclear arms. It should have had at least preliminary target date for destruction of all nuclear arsenals, like, for example, The Global Appeal to the Nine World Governments having nuclear weapons that has collected by 26th of October 2020 nearly 10,000 signatures of various NGOs and individuals. The Appeal set up the target goal of elimination of NW by August 6th, 2045 or earlier.

4. The TPNW has not stopped the nuclear arms race that has intensified recently. The TPNW failed to stop unilateral withdrawal of the USA from the INF Treaty and Iranian nuclear deal. The TPNW does not prevent some NATO member states to violate the NPT by deployment of the U.S. nuclear forward-based weapons in Europe and to modernize the SOA by spending enormous amount of money for such purpose.

 

Vladimir Kozin: it is one-sided and disbalanced appeal

The public organization based in the Netherlands named “Nederlandse Vereniging voor Medische Polemologie” has forwarded me the Open Letter signed by a number of prominent persons.

It is very strange that such noble and highly respected personalities like Nobel Peace Prize Laureates made two political mistakes and even blunders in their Appeal.

First, there is no "invasion" into Ukraine, but liberation of it from neo-nazis and to save lives of civilians in Donbass. War criminals in Kiev have killed 14.000 and wounded 34.000 civilians in Donbass during two Ukrainian aggressions versus it in 2014-2015. Such figure is recognized by the UNO.

From February 17th, 2022 till March 26th, 2022 in Donetsk People's Republic only Kiev also killed 64 peaceful citizens and injured  534, including 46 kids. 1704 houses, 439 social civilian  buildings, including hospitals (26), educational assets (59) and life support systems (241) there have been destroyed.

Such tragic figures eloquently prove that Moscow was right when it started from February 24th, 2022 a military operation aimed at demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, and at protection population in Donbass who does not want to live together in such state called Ukraine.

Second, Russia has never announced its desire and intention to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine:

a) the Senate, the Upper House of the Parliament,  has not made any decision to use them and it will not make such decision;

b) there is no need to use them at all -  Russia made major success in destroying a war machine of Ukrainian neo-nazis by using conventional weapons. Ukrainian Navy, Air Force and AAD have been nearly ruined and Donbass ultra-nationalist battalion destroyed. Nearly 6.000 Ukrainian military facilities have been destroyed since February 24th, 2022;

Unfortunately, there is a dead silence from the co-authors of that Appeal on all these facts described in several sentences:

a) the USA is committed to the first nuclear strike; while Russia is not;

b) the USA has identified  14 cases to use nuclear weapons in its NPR - still not modified (PPT slide is attached);

c) the U.S. presidents have a sole and unique right to use nuclear weapons;

d) the USA still  has tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) in Europe and the respective delivery systems;

e) if the U.S. TNW are loaded on the U.S. heavy strategic bombers they are regarded as "strategic";

f) the USA frequently sends heavy strategic bombers to Europe, especially close to Russian territory, and even tested dummy nuclear missiles against potential targets;

g) NATO has not cancelled it  its "Baltic Air Policing" operation started in 2004 where dual capable aircraft are employed;

h) the USA has not ratified the CTBT, while Russia has done it nearly 22 years ago - in 2000.

CONCLUSION:

a) the Appeal is one-sided, disbalanced and a very biassed document;

b) it misleads the general public and nuclear arms control experts;

c) the Appeal encourages the USA and NATO to heavily rely upon nuclear weapons;

d) the Appeal complicates public movement towards nuclear-free world;

e) it is very strange to see that many anti-nuclear movements in Europe and the USA have take up one-sided track in nuclear arms control, and camouflage the USA who from 1945 is obsessed with the desire to use nuclear weapons, and encouraged Ukraine to resurrect its Soviet-made nuclear weapons:  for that purpose the USA has delivered weapon-grade plutonium to Kiev's ultra-nationalistic and aggressive regime.

W. Kosin: Friedensmission der OVKS in Kasachstan ist das gesetzliche Recht der Republik

Es war ein Test für Kasachstans Bereitschaft, seine Unabhängigkeit, territoriale Integrität und Souveränität zu verteidigen. Der Vizepräsident des Nationalen Instituts für globale Sicherheitsstudien, Wladimir Kosin, hat im Gespräch mit SNA die Entsendung der OVKS-Friedenstruppen nach Kasachstan kommentiert.

„In der Geschichte der OVKS gab es noch nie so schwerwiegende Fälle, in denen ihre Friedenstruppen auf Ersuchen einer Vertragspartei auf ihr Territorium entsandt wurden, um strategische und soziale Einrichtungen zu schützen“, betont Kosin.

So kommentiert er die Erklärung des Präsidenten Russlands, Wladimir Putin, während des außerordentlichen Online-Gipfels der Organisation des Vertrags über kollektive Sicherheit (OVKS) am Montag, wonach die Organisation ihr Potenzial und ihre Fähigkeit zum schnellen Handeln gezeigt habe. Der Präsident wies darauf hin, dass die staatliche Sicherheit Kasachstans bedroht sei und "das, was passiert ist, keine spontane Aktion aufgrund der gestiegenen Treibstoffpreise ist".

„Natürlich war die Aktion nicht spontan, sondern zielgerichtet. Gegner des bestehenden Systems in Kasachstan warteten auf einen Vorwand, um zu den Waffen zu greifen und sich am Terrorismus und den Raubüberfällen zu beteiligen. Es war eine externe Aggression, aber sie basierte auf internen Gründen, die von den eingeschworenen Gegnern Kasachstans benutzt wurden, um die Stabilität in der Gesellschaft zu untergraben und die Staatsmacht und vor allem ihre außenpolitische Ausrichtung zu wechseln“, meint der führende Militärexperte.

Autor: Natalia Pawlowa. Quelle: SNA

W. Kosin: Moderne Waffen in russischer Armee und Spannungen in Europa

In einem Interview mit SNA äußerte sich der Vizepräsident des russischen Nationalen Instituts für globale Sicherheitsstudien, Wladimir Kosin, zur jüngsten Rede von Präsident Putin und zu den Kooperationsvorschlägen, die Russland an das Nato-Hauptquartier geschickt hatte, ebenso zur Reaktion des Westens darauf.

In einer erweiterten Sitzung des Kollegiums des Verteidigungsministeriums sagte der russische Präsident, Wladimir Putin, der Anteil moderner Waffen in der russischen Armee habe 71 Prozent überschritten, in den strategischen Nuklearstreitkräften seien es 89 Prozent.

Das Staatsoberhaupt ging in seiner Rede auf die schwierige Situation ein, die sich in Europa in den letzten Monaten entwickelt hat. Die Verantwortung für die Verschlechterung der Lage tragen ihm zufolge die USA, die sich aus diversen Abkommen zur strategischen Stabilität und zum Ausbau der Nato zurückziehen. Er sagte, von Washington brauche Russland rechtliche Sicherheitsgarantien und keine verbalen Zusicherungen. Gleichzeitig werde Russland angemessene militärisch-technische Maßnahmen bei unfreundlichen Schritten ergreifen.

Als Grund für den Anstieg des Anteils der modernen Waffen nannte das Staatsoberhaupt die Arbeiten zur groß angelegten Modernisierung von Heer und Marine. „Die Entwicklung der neuesten Waffentypen ist in hohem Tempo vorangeschritten, einige von ihnen – die Avangard- und Dagger-Komplexe – wurden in Alarmbereitschaft versetzt“, fügte er hinzu. Anfang Dezember sagte Putin, Russland sei den USA bei modernen Waffen voraus. Ende November hatte der Präsident das Auftauchen von Hyperschallwaffen in Russland angekündigt.

„In seiner Rede sagte Putin, dass Russland keinen Krieg mit den USA und der Nato führen werde, sondern bereit sei, Probleme mit friedlichen – politischen und diplomatischen – Mitteln zu lösen. Gleichzeitig wurde klar angekündigt, dass von russischer Seite Gegenmaßnahmen ergriffen werden würden. Es wurde erklärt, dass wir nicht bis auf unbestimmte Zeit warten könnten, bis die Nato und die Vereinigten Staaten auf die russischen Vorschläge reagieren. Es wäre schön, wenn es vor dem katholischen Weihnachtsfest oder vor dem 1. Januar 2022 geschehen würde“, betonte Militärexperte Kosin gegenüber SNA.

Er erinnerte daran, dass die Bedrohung durch die USA und die Nato nicht jetzt, sondern nach dem Ende des Zweiten Weltkriegs entstanden sei. Sie sei derzeit von kombinierter Natur.

„Bereits im Mai 2012, beim Nato-Gipfel in Chicago, wurde die sogenannte Chicago Triade geschaffen. Es handelt sich um einen operativ-strategischen Mechanismus, der Atomraketen, Raketenabwehr und konventionelle Waffen umfasst. Diese Triade steht vor der Haustür Russlands und des mit uns verbündeten Staates, der Republik Weißrussland. Es ist eine zukunftsorientierte Einrichtung. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird in den Dokumentenentwürfen, die Russland am 15. Dezember an die amerikanischen Vertreter im Nato-Hauptquartier geschickt hat, dem nuklearen Faktor besondere Aufmerksamkeit gewidmet, drei Artikel behandeln die nukleare Abschreckung in Europa. Die russische Führung hat heute in einer Sitzung des Kollegiums des Verteidigungsministeriums erneut die sehr gefährliche Natur des Aufstellens verschiedener Arten von US- und Nato-Waffen in der Nähe der russischen Grenze betont. Besondere Aufmerksamkeit wird auf die Flüge der US-amerikanischen schweren

Der Militärexperte wies darauf hin, dass der Oberbefehlshaber der Nato-Streitkräfte in Europa, der amerikanische General Walters, bereits nach der Vorlage zweier Vertragsentwürfe durch Russland beim Nato-Hauptquartier eine Aufstockung des Einsatzes der US-Streitkräfte in Rumänien und Bulgarien gefordert habe, und zwar nicht nur an der Süd-, sondern auch an der Ostflanke des Bündnisses. Demnach sei die Reaktion der Nato und der USA auf die russische Initiative leider negativ, stellt der russische Experte fest.

Geschrieben von Natalia Pawlowa. Quelle:SNA 

 

We Can Choose Peace Or Risk A Nuclear War

Clearing the FOG spoke at length with Dr. Vladimir Kozin, a Russian military and global security expert. That happened to be the day that Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine. Dr. Kozin explains the goals of the mission and the events that led to it. He describes the eight year assault on ethnic Russians living in Eastern Ukraine that caused more than 14,000 deaths. He also describes how the current conflict can be resolved and the risk of a major, and possibly nuclear war, if a diplomatic solution is not achieved. March 1 to 7 is an international week of action to say No Wars! No Sanctions! No NATO!

Weg zur Gefahr: Warum das Nato-Ultimatum zum INF-Vertrag die EU diskreditiert

Die USA geben nun Russland noch zwei Monate Zeit, bevor sie den Vertrag über landgestützte Mittelstreckenraketen in Europa (INF-Vertrag) einseitig aufkündigen. Am Dienstag haben die Nato-Staaten Russland erstmals vorgeworfen, das Abkommen zu verletzen. Warum sie diese Kausalitäten besser hätten hinterfragen müssen – im Sputnik-Artikel.

Es kommt bekannt vor: Eine geschlossene Veranstaltung in Brüssel, nämlich ein schnell geplantes Treffen, bei dem nicht zuletzt schwierige Russland-Fragen auf dem Programm stehen. Gab es einen wirklichen Verstoß gegen die INF-Vereinbarungen? Und wie würden die Urteile bei einem normalen bürgerlichen Gerichtsverfahren begründet werden? Aber die Nato-Spitze lädt nicht einmal den russischen Vertreter ein, um diesem ihre Besorgnis oder wohl eine begründete Anklage auf den Tisch zu legen. Sieben russische Nato-Botschafter hatte die Allianz wegen des Skripal-Falls noch im März zurückgewiesen. Kurz darauf hatte Russland ebenfalls seinen ständigen Nato-Vertreter abberufen und einen befristeten eingestellt.      

Zuletzt behaupteten die USA, die russische 9M729-Rakete könne weiter fliegen, als dies nach dem INF-Vertrag akzeptabel sei. Sie legten jedoch keinerlei Beweise in dieser Angelegenheit vor und haben laut dem russischen Außenministerium weder den Zeitpunkt, als ihre Beobachtungsmittel dies festgehalten hatten, noch den Übungsort nennen können. „Die USA dürften an die technischen Spezifikationen der Rakete gelangt sein”, meinte der Experte des Zentrums für politische Forschungen Andrej Baklizki im Interview für die russische Tageszeitung Kommersant. Moskau äußerte, die Rakete sei nie auf die vom Vertrag verbotene Ferne getestet worden. Ob die technischen Spezifikationen der Rakete wirklich den Vertrag verletzen, ist bisher nicht belegt worden.

Eine US-Laune auf Kosten der EU

Auch wurde berichtet, dass der INF-Vertrag eine von vier Vereinbarungen war, deren Einhaltung durch die USA Wladimir Putin bereits bei seinem Treffen mit Donald Trump in Helsinki zu bestätigen suchte. Die Anfrage wurde jedoch ignoriert. Seit dem 20. Oktober, als Donald Trump dann plötzlich den bevorstehenden Austritt aus dem Vertrag sowie den Ausbau der nuklearen Kapazitäten angekündigt hatte, teilte Kreml-Sprecher Dmitri Peskow mehrmals mit, Moskau würde von den USA gerne ausführlichere Erklärungen erhalten. Selbst Staatsminister Niels Annen (SPD) nannte damals die US-Entscheidung verheerend und glaubte, Europa müsste jetzt eine neue Aufrüstung mit Mittelstreckenraketen verhindern.

Auch Außenminister Heiko Maas bedauerte die Erklärung: „Wir werben gegenüber den USA dafür, mögliche Konsequenzen zu bedenken”. Das Ende des Vertrags hätte negative Folgen für den New-Start (Vertrag zur Reduzierung strategischer Waffen), den wir dringend brauchen, kommentierte er.

Doch etwas soll doch beim Nato-Treffen passiert sein, sodass die EU das US-Ultimatum bedingungslos unterstützt hat. Nur eines ist klar: Die Einheit der Nato dürfte sich für Deutschland als politische Lokomotive der EU wichtiger erwiesen haben als die Rolle eines Verweigerers, oder lieber eines Vermittlers, eines Brückenbauers laut Prinzipien des früheren Bundeskanzlers Willy Brandt (SPD), nach denen Deutschland zum Frieden mahnen sollte. Jetzt muss die EU davon ausgehen, dass im Fall der Vertragskündigung durch die USA Russland die Länder, die US-Raketen auf ihrem Territorium stationieren, als Ziel seiner Antwortmaßnahmen betrachten wird, wie der russische Generalstabschef Waleri Gerassimow am Mittwoch bekanntgab. Ob es wieder eine US-Laune auf Kosten der EU wäre?

„Jemand mit Dreck am Stecken”

Etwas mehr Hinterfragen in der EU wünschte sich Wladimir Kosin, Mitglied des Wissenschaftlichen Rats des Nationalen Institutes für globale Sicherheitsfragen und Nuklearwaffen-Experte. Denn beschuldigen, und zwar so offen, dürfe nur jemand, der selbst keinen Dreck am Stecken habe. Der Experte ist sich sicher: „Die US-Militärs verwenden während der Wirksamkeitstests von ihren Raketenabwehrsystemen die Mittel- und Kurzstreckenraketen als nuklearfreie Sprengköpfe und verstoßen damit gegen den sechsten Vertragsartikel”. Seit 2001 hätte es schon 95 derartige Verstöße gegeben, fügt er hinzu und verweist auf die Presseberichte des Diensts für Raketenabwehr des Verteidigungsministeriums der Vereinigten Staaten, dessen Website in Russland übrigens unzugänglich ist. Dabei erwähnt er die Verstöße durch das strategische Raketenabwehr- sowie das THAAD-System ausschließlich der „MIM-104 Patriots”. Die letzten zwei Proben hätten am 11. September sowie am 26. Oktober im Pazifischen Ozean stattgefunden, zuletzt sei eine Mittelstreckenrakete durch die Raketenabwehrsysteme abgefangen worden. Ob die schon existierenden Mittel- und Kurzstreckenraketen als nukleare Sprengköpfe angewandt werden könnten? Rein technisch wäre das schon möglich, meint Kosin.

Noch bevor das Ultimatum gestellt wurde, hatte Donald Trump einmal erwähnt, der INF-Vertrag würde die USA beim Einsatz von Waffen zur Einschüchterung Chinas stören, das im Vergleich zu den USA nie einer derartigen Beschränkung unterworfen gewesen sei. Das könnte schon ein Grund sein, warum die USA das unbequeme Abkommen unbedingt auflösen wollen, denn Ultimaten seien noch nie die richtige Taktik im Umgang mit Russland gewesen, glaubt Kosin. Ein weiterer Grund wäre der Wunsch, das Schaffen der eigenen bodengestützten Marschflugkörper in Nuklearausrüstung zu verdecken und diese in europäischen Nato-Mitgliedstaaten platzieren zu lassen, sagt Kosin. Die USA hätten schon die Mk41-Systeme in Polen und Rumänien installiert, die nicht nur zur Raketenabwehr, sondern auch zum Starten der Boden-Boden-Marschflugkörper anwendbar seien. Also in Europa, das eine neue Aufrüstung verhindern wollte. „Forschung samt Entwicklung derartiger Raketen sind bereits angelaufen”, berichtet Kosin unter Berufung auf eigene Quellen.

Aus diesem Grund schreibt er den russischen Mächtigen einen Mangel an politischem Willen zu, dem Ultimatum mit den eigenen, nun belegten Argumenten zu INF-Verstößen durch die USA zu begegnen und offen für die Erhaltung des Vertrages zu stehen. Aber dafür bräuchte man einen gegenseitigen Dialog gleichberechtigter Partner. Da die Nato, die übrigens nicht am INF-Vertrag beteiligt ist, samt deren europäischen Mitgliedern Russland offenbar beschuldigt hatte, scheint es für diesen nicht mehr genug Raum zu geben.

Autor: Liudmila Kotlyarova, Quelle: Sputnik

What are major results of Zelensky’s trip to the USA?

September 29,2024

In September 2024 ex-president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky (prefix “ex” is used because he lost his authority under Ukrainian Constitution last May) visited the USA with two basic aims: to meet with President Joe Biden and Vice-President Kamala Harris to demand additional war-fighting resources to continue massive aggression against Russia, and to address the current UN General Assembly session with its justification.

“Scranton show”

Visiting the USA Volodymyr Zelensky kicked off his first tour at Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (Pennsylvania), in Biden’s hometown. Making short remarks at the plant the ex-president of Ukraine observed that its 400 workers are producing high-caliber 155mm artillery shells actively used against the citizens of Ukraine and Russia and helped to save lives of millions of people.

Wrong. Many millions of shells produced by that ammunition plant and other military plants in the USA have already killed dozens of thousands of civilians in Donbass (the DPR and the LPR), and Novorossya (Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions), Crimea and in several internationally recognized Regions inside continental Russia bordering Ukraine. The U.S. artillery shells and HIMARS rockets, German tanks, and Swedish anti-tank devices have been found in Kursk Region that Zelensky has ordered to invade and to blow up Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in the framework of his ‘victory plan’. Has he so far obtained positive military results in that region?

Nothing. By September 28, 2024 a formidable Ukrainian armed grouping has learned a very sad lesson in Kursk Region. Since the beginning of Ukrainian armed adventure in Kursk Region that began on August 6, 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) lost more than 18,130 troops, 132 tanks, 64 infantry fighting vehicles, 97 APCs, 842 AFVs, 541 motor vehicles, 145 artillery guns, 31 MLRS launchers, eight SAM launchers, 37 electronic warfare stations and nine counter-battery radars, etc. All Kiev’s attempts to reinforce the initial incursion grouping of 12,000 troops have failed.

On the other hand, in Kursk Region the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been spotted in killing civilians, burning hospitals and schools, looting shops and private houses. On the third day of their invasion Ukrainian GIs have hanged nine small Russian kids in the basement of a house who failed to escape from invaders.

Empty ‘peace plans’

During his time in office and after Volodymyr Zelensky has put forward too many various plans, like ‘peace plans’ with various provisions and different demands. He recently presented another political scheme – ‘a victory plan’. It has been tabled to the current U.S. Administration who incited a full-scale multi-dimensional combined Ukrainian-NATO armed aggression – initially against Donbass on April 14,2014 and later on February 17, 2022, and afterwords against Russia at the end of September 2022 when four regions have joined Russia.

In his address to the UN Security Council in New York on September 24, Zelensky claimed that the Russia-Ukraine conflict “cannot be calmed by talks” and that Moscow “can only be forced into peace.” He failed to mention in what way he plans to force Russia into peace. He seemingly does not realize that Donbass and later Russia initially attacked by Ukraine and NATO in April 2014 has much more motivation to defend its people, economy, culture, religions and territory than the attacker who has violated the UN Charter and many international agreements because it was and still it is Kiev who used and uses regular Armed Forces against its own citizens living in Donbass – both ethnic Russians and Ukrainians living in the DPR and the LPR.

Before rebranding his previous proposals, the ex-Ukrainian leader has said that he wanted Russia to be “at the table” during his next ‘peace summit’. Rather strange to hear when he insisted that Russia should not be invited to the first ‘peace summit’ held earlier this year. However, Moscow rejected an idea to participate in the second “peace summit” by expressing its firm belief that this process itself has nothing to do with the putting an end to the Ukrainian aggression and restore real peace in Europe.

Writing on the wall

Former Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky is delusional” if he believes Moscow can be forced into peace on Kiev’s terms, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said.

“A stance that is based on an attempt to force Russia into peace is an absolutely fatal mistake because it is impossible to force Russia into peace,” Peskov told journalists on September 25, 2024 (here and later in terms of Moscow time). The Ukrainian leader’s stated position is “a profound delusion that will inevitably have consequences for the Kiev regime,” he warned.

Peskov’s warning is based upon the objective facts that Russia is much stronger than Ukraine in all dimensions – economic and military might, and more and more people wishing voluntarily to defend its country that won two major wars waged against Russia by Napoleon and Hitler. Russia has much more resources than Ukraine, and has nuclear capability while Ukraine does not have any. Russian defensive actions since February 2022 are enjoying tremendous popular support, while Ukrainian aggression against Russia is becoming less and less favourable amongst rank-and-file Ukrainians. Ukrainian POWs confess that they prefer to save their lives and surrender rather than to become KIA or WIA for dubious ideas.

More than 100 Ukrainian attacks on ZNPP

While in the United States, Zelensky has circulated lies that Russia is planning to attack Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plants. On September 25, 2024 Zelensky warned that such attacks risk nuclear disaster. “Radiation does not respect state borders,” Zelensky made such a revelation in his address to the United Nations General Assembly in New York. But, Russia has never attacked any Ukrainian NPP, and has no intention to do it.

But he never admitted that the AFU have shelled Zaporozhye (Russian spelling) NPP or a short ZNPP, the largest in Europe, more than 100 (one hundred) times, and sent five commando teams across adjacent Kahovskaya Reservoir to capture the station and blackmail Russia and Europe as a whole. Such attacks that still remain unnoticed by Rafael Grossi, the IAEA head, have stirred fears among Europeans of another Chernobyl-style disaster, initiated by Ukrainian engineers in 1986 when they unwisely experimented with 4th nuclear reactor that subsequently melted down.

Gloomy face after talks in Trump Tower

Zelensky’s trip to the USA and his meetings with President Joe Biden, the Democratic Party nominee Vice-President Kamala Harris and ex-president Donald Trump has brought little practical results. Zelensky has not gotten any promise for Ukraine to join NATO and a decision to employ long-range U.S. or the UK missiles deep inside Russia. Biden only announced a further US $ 7.9 billion package of military assistance to Ukraine.

The former Ukrainian president was gloomy, sad and nervous during all these meetings, especially while talking with Donald Trump who, seemingly, unlike Biden & Harris Co, has poured a cold shower on him by telling him real truth: if Ukraine continues miscalculated aggression in Europe, Ukraine will cease to exist. The ex-US president outlined that the USA needs a clear exit strategy for the Ukraine conflict and insisted that neither his Democratic rival Kamala Harris nor President Joe Biden has any such plan. Donald Trump reiterated his promise to end the conflict immediately if he is re-elected. Such a statement was met by Zelensky with a stony face as if a capital punishment verdict had been personally articulated for him in a court room.

Russian federal liberal newspaper “Moskovsky Komsomolets underscored that both ex-presidents like Trump and Zelensky currently do not have any chemistry between them. Zelensky recently impolitely told the New Yorker magazine that he believes Trump "doesn't really know how to stop the war" and called Trump's running mate James D. Vance "too radical" and "dangerous" for suggesting that Ukraine should give up territory to end the war, saying it would spark conflict around the world. In his turn Donald Trump called his Ukrainian counterpart “the greatest salesman on Earth”, meaning that he is begging money everywhere and gets them without any desire to pay back.

There have been tensions between Zelensky and the Republican party ahead of November's U.S. presidential election. Some Republicans were angered by Zelensky's visit to an arms plant in Scranton. Zelensky's trip to the key swing and battleground state which is home to a sizable population of people of Ukrainian ancestry, had partisan motivations and was labelled by leading Republicans as a partisan campaign event. In a public letter, House Speaker Mike Johnson who refused to meet with the ex-Ukrainian head of state said the visit was "designed to help Democrats" and claimed that it mounted to "election interference". He also demanded to fire the Ukrainian ambassador to the USA for initiating the “Scranton show”.

Some results of Zelensky’s trip

Nowadays private citizen Zelensky has been talking about “truly just peace” in Europe and has hammered out another option in the form of a ‘victory plan’. Is he really committed to peace through victory? No, not at all. The real motivation of his new gimmick is totally different.

What are Zelensky’s real aims standing behind his ‘peace or victory plans? Are they visible or not?

The answer is: yes, they are clear.


He would like to rule Ukraine his whole life and help the current U.S. Administration to reap more blood money for the U.S. military industrial complex or MIC, and assist the Democratic party to win the 2024 presidential elections at the cost of continuing of Ukrainian-NATO aggression in the heart of Europe.


What is the motivation pursued by Biden & Harris Co?

 


To guarantee the election of the Democratic Party nominee – Vice-President Kamala Harris as president of the USA. And to keep Zelensky in office for decades. Plus, to help the current U.S. Administration to reap more blood money for the U.S. MIC.


It corresponds to: “One hand is washing the other” (Russian proverb). Or: “Scratch my back. I will scratch yours” (English proverb). The obvious result is the same. Ukrainian-NATO aggression in Europe still goes on. It has not been and it is not a Russian “aggression” against Ukraine. Quite the opposite.

Zelensky is not interested in the fact that too many people have been killed and crippled, too many people became internally displaced persons and refugees, and too many cities destroyed and industrial centers ruined.

He is getting unpopular amongst the American general public and ruling elites. The same is true with the majority of Ukrainian citizens.

The former Ukrainian president neglects the facts that due to his adventurism the relations between five global nuclear powers have dramatically deteriorated without any glimpse of hope for any improvement.

He does not care that the symbolic Doomsday clock displays a rather alarmist signal to all people on the globe.

Unfortunately, after travelling to the USA, Zelensky has retained his deep-seated war-mongering style. Zelensky’s credo is a war “with no light at the end of the tunnel”. He personally is responsible for the fact that he has moved the world closer to the World War III.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

 

 

 

 

What are they thinking? – Understanding the Russian academic perspective on Ukraine

Boris Kyrychenko, a Blumenfeld Junior Fellow at Science for Peace, is also a recent undergraduate from the University of Toronto, completing his major in International Relations

 

In war, the first casualty is the truth. Voices outside national narratives become criticized and discredited, an outside group is formed and individuals are subsequently attacked, regardless of their own personal stances. Such incidents can be seen across Europe and the United States. Criticism of the mainstream narrative is shunned, although not as overtly and ruthlessly as in Russia itself. Threat to civil liberties aside, such control of the narrative inevitably creates powerful echo-chambers, within which the other side becomes ever more vilified, and impossible to comprehend.

It goes without saying that the conflict in Ukraine is a colossal human tragedy. Thus, provided that no one is in favour of extending human suffering for the sake of achieving geopolitical objectives, it must be in the interests of all parties involved to resolve the conflict as soon as possible, and prevent additional loss of life or even worse, nuclear Armageddon. But negotiations, to occur, require an understanding of the perspectives and narratives of the other side, no matter how morally difficult such an undertaking may seem to be (given the many allegations of war crimes, this is an understandable moral dilemma and further underscores the need to make peace).

If we truly want this conflict to end, then we must first attempt to engage in genuine dialogue. It is in this end that I reached out, across the digital iron curtain, to invite any notable Russian academics who seem to generally agree with the Kremlin’s position and share their professional opinions. Specifically, I posed a series of five questions, which were presented to whoever was willing to enter into dialogue. After months of reaching out to dozens of noteworthy scholars, two agreed to respond.

The first was a retired professor by the name of Dr. Vladimir Brovkin, who, after leaving the USSR, studied at Princeton University, and later taught history at Harvard. The second was Dr. Vladimir Kozin, who has held various positions within the USSR’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as in the Russian Federation’s equivalent ministry. He is currently a senior researcher and leading expert at the Centre for Military-Political Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. Although the two differ in their titles, achievements, and experiences, both approach international relations from a uniquely Soviet/ Russian perspective. Here are their answers.

Question 1

To begin, an introductory, historical context-building question was posed: what have been the major mistakes on the part of the West regarding their post-1991 Eastern European strategy?

Dr. Kozin (replying in Russian) responded with the following: “Such mistakes could be summed up as follows: the militarization of Western states; the strengthening of widespread Russophobia; the acceptance of Eastern European states into NATO; the deployment of nuclear missiles onto the territories of Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Estonia on a permanent basis, as well as the deployment of heavy strategic air power by the US Air Force into the region on a temporary basis. And in more recent times, organizing a coup d'état in Ukraine in 2014, creating an ultranationalist regime there and pushing it to unleash a major armed aggression – first, against the Donbass in 2014 and then against Russia in 2022. Such aggression has been intensified qualitatively – because it started from supplying individual hand-grenade launchers to armored vehicles from NATO countries, e.g., all U.S. made MLRS HIMARS are operated by the US GIs. NATO has already sent hundreds of thousands of ammunition rounds for howitzers, MLRS and artillery pieces. Such weapons since 2014 have killed nearly 20,000 civilians in Donbass.”[1]

Dr. Brovkin (answering in English) began by stating that Western strategy post-1991 was less a mistake, but more of a missed opportunity. Specifically, the US’s “victory-mentality” is to blame, as it failed to capitalize on an era of “Russian brotherhood” and hope towards not just the West, but ethnic minorities within the USSR such as the Lithuanians. He also went on to cite the positive personal relations between Putin and various Western leaders, such as with Bush Jr. and Chirac, as proof that a more normal relationship was possible, but was regrettably destroyed by Western advances towards Russia via the NATO admission of the Baltic states.[2]

Such analysis of the 1990s and early 2000s conflicts with other scholars (especially from the Baltics and Eastern Europe), who claim that such ‘hopeful’ sentiments came not from Russian friendliness but from temporary Russian geopolitical weakness. Thus, the acquisition of security guarantees from NATO were seen as vital should Russia revert to its imperialistic foreign policy tendencies of past generations. This scholarly debate aside, both Dr. Kozin and Dr. Brovkin are of the belief that mistakes were made, and that these mistakes have sowed the seeds of today’s conflict.

Question 2

Next came the ‘chicken or the egg’ question of what came first, NATO expansion or aggressive Russian foreign policy? Specifically, given the potential entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO as a response to the invasion of Ukraine, an argument is often made that all new members have joined the alliance of their own free will, often out of national security concerns stemming from Russian behaviour.

Dr. Kozin replied, “There have never been any “threats'' from Russia towards the members of NATO, nor to the states currently joining. Aggressive and threatening actions have always stemmed from the foreign policy of NATO, first towards the USSR, and more recently towards Russia. For example, the gradual advance of the NATO military machine towards the Russian frontier practically right after the creation of the bloc in the form of the "Chicago Triad," a mechanism for operational cooperation between nuclear missiles, anti missile defences and conventional weapons – all in the name of alliance “forward deployments.” For reference, he is referring to the NATO summit that took place in Chicago back in 2012, in which it was declared that “NATO is committed to maintaining an appropriate mix of nuclear, conventional and missile defence capabilities for deterrence and defence,” effectively forming a triad between the three. Kozin added that, “There is no invasion of Russia into Ukraine. It is a wrong term invented by Zelenskyy and NATO. Actually, aggression began in 2014 when Ukrainian president ad interim Turchinov signed a decree that ushered in a direct aggression against Donbass that never crossed administrative Ukrainian-Donbass border. On February 14, 2022, Zelenskyy started a direct and combined aggression with NATO against Russia. Moscow had to respond on February 24th.”

Dr. Brovkin challenged the assumption that all NATO countries joined voluntarily and out of fear of Russia, citing Churchill’s observation of NATO’s role in Europe as “keeping the Americans in, the Germans down and Russia out.” Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece are all NATO members that never had any military issues with Russia, and therefore did not join out of fear. Montenegrin membership, Brovkin claims, was ‘bought’ via generous sums of economic assistance from the EU and the West. However, he conceded that the Baltics, Poland, and Romania have valid historical grievances. Nevertheless, he argues that historical difficulties ought not to have been carried into contemporary contexts, as Russia during the 1990s was hardly a threat to those states.

Question 3

My third question concerned nuclear weapons and their ability to assure defence— Why worry about NATO enlargement if the alliance claims to be defensive, and the Russian nuclear arsenal guarantees that any assault (even via conventional means) would theoretically be unwinnable and therefore will never occur?

Dr. Brovkin had the following to say: “If that is indeed the case, and nuclear weapons ensure security, then why would the US feel the need to station their missiles in Poland and Romania, in addition to their silos in Great Britain, Germany and Italy?” He then referenced Putin’s response to such a question, which essentially came down to time. Specifically, the closer a nuclear missile is stationed, the less time it would take for it to arrive at its target, and therefore its receiver has less time to react and launch counterstrikes. He then stated that this was one of the reasons for Russia’s invasion, citing Zelenskyy’s plea for NATO to station missiles in Kharkiv (a city that is about 40 km away from the Russian border and 300 km from Moscow), which would be an existential threat to Russian national security.[3]

I then followed up by inquiring whether it is not in the interest of Polish/ Ukrainian security strategists to agree to such forward deployments in the hope that said deployments would deter Russian aggression. If Kharkiv indeed had US missile silos, surely Putin would think twice before launching an invasion. Dr. Brovkin responded that while valid, such maneuvers would still threaten Russian security and force a response. He then added as a side note that any Western talk of Russia striking Ukraine with nuclear weapons is sheer “idiocy,” an “absurdity to an absurdity,” and “inventions of American propaganda,” namely because Russia would not want to destroy territory it seeks to capture. If nuclear weapons were to be launched, they would be aimed at US forces and not Ukraine. While such an argument could be contested based upon the sheer amount of destruction already performed by Russian bombings, he concluded by stating his main nuclear worry is the powerplant in Zaporizhzhya, and how indifferent Western media seem to be towards this danger.

Dr. Kozin had the following to say: “The assertion that "...NATO, as a defensive alliance, will never strike first" is unprofessional since the nuclear strategies of both the US and the UK allow a preventive and pre-emptive nuclear strike on Russia. The opinion that NATO has no desire to attack Russia with conventional means is also unprofessional. 100s of billions worth of heavy, non-nuclear and conventional weaponry have been deployed, and dispatching of army personnel from various NATO members under the guise of “mercenaries” to Ukraine, also disproves such an assertion.”

Question 4

The fourth question was divided into two parts. First: “Given the present crisis, a security regime based on military confrontation and alliance blocs has been shown to have its limits, and alternative models such as common security have been suggested instead. What are your thoughts on such arrangements, and could this be incorporated into a future settlement of the war?”

Dr. Brovkin stated that theoretically, it is possible to create a system of collective security that regulates state behaviour. The biggest obstacle towards such a system, however, is that states have different interests and perceptions, such as Ukraine wanting independence and sovereignty over the Donbas, while the Donas wants independence from Kiev. He then drew an analogy to the independence movements in Spain and said to imagine the reaction if Putin began arming Barcelonians with weapons against Madrid. He then argued that the Ukrainians should not have abandoned the Minsk Accords, which would have kept the Donbas within Ukraine, albeit with some autonomy. Furthermore, he argued Kiev should have accepted Putin’s pre-war deal, which would have meant no NATO in Ukraine, yes to Ukrainian entry into the EU and a UN supervised referendum in the Donbas. But because the US gave a categorical no, it transformed the situation from a potential compromise into a zero-sum game, which then escalated to war. The only solution, Brovkin concludes, would have to be some sort of autonomous and neutral status for Ukraine, ideally achieved via peaceful means.

As a follow up, I asked whether a settlement that could satisfy everyone’s security needs is even possible at this stage– what would realistically satisfy Russia? To this, Dr. Kozin responded with the following: “Such a resolution is not possible at the moment for all the previously stated reasons. Russia would be satisfied with the elimination of all the negative tendencies regarding its relationship with NATO and the nuclear sphere– a complete removal of US tactical weapons from both Europe and Asia, as well as a halt to NATO’s Baltic Air policing operation and the practice of creating Russia-hostile states and endlessly arming them with offensives weapons, such as Ukraine.”

Question 5

The fifth and final question focused on the future. Specifically, I asked how both academics viewed the long-term impact of the war on Russo-Ukrainian relations and Russia’s broader relationship with the West, and whether they had any hope.

Dr. Kozin summarized his many earlier points and concluded with “Yes, unfortunately, it [the conflict] will have a negative impact. With the current political and military leadership in the leading NATO countries and against the backdrop of a harsh anti-Russian policy, there is no hope. The world has arrived at the most dangerous confrontation since the end of WW2.”

Dr. Brovkin concluded with the following: “It’s always hard to project into the future, and different parts of Ukraine will have different expectations.” He argues that the Donbas, Odessa, and Ukrainians east of the Dnieper will enthusiastically accept Russian victory. Central Ukraine’s response will depend on how well the Russians rule, and whether Russian investment in infrastructure and reconstruction successfully raises their standard of living. However, western Ukraine (such as Lviv) will carry a great resentment against Russia for many years to come. He then spoke about the many family ties between Russians and Ukrainians (mentioning that his own mother was born in Ukraine)[4] and how such familial and historical ties will likely help reconciliation efforts. Overall, Brovkin noted, the longer the war lasts, the bigger the rift will be and the more difficult it will become to overcome said rift. Thus, the sooner peace is signed, the sooner Ukrainian neutrality can be affirmed, and the sooner West Ukraine can join the EU, and the East join Russia.

Final Remark

Many of the claims made by the respondents are controversial to say the least, especially in Canada and the West. Regardless, genuine dialogue was held, which was ultimately the main objective of the exercise. As of the 1-year anniversary of the conflict, despite early Ukrainian gains it appears both sides are at a stalemate, with hundreds of lives being lost on a daily basis, and potentially hundreds of thousands since the beginning of the war. With no clear military end in sight, one ought to consider any avenue towards peace, especially negotiations. Thus, we ought to begin by understanding the opposing viewpoint in order to entice the other side to the table. Whether the powers that be are ready for such conversations remains to be seen.

 
 

 

[1] In reviewing this article, Dr. Kozin requested that we provide the following additional information: http://eurasian-defence.ru/?q=eksklyuziv/report-210-moscow-suspended

[2] The interview with Dr. Brovkin was done over zoom and exists in a video format. To watch the full recording of the interview, please go to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Science4Peace/featured

[3] While it is true that some Ukrainian officials implied nuclear rearmament in the lead up to Feb 24th, including Zelenskyy, I was unable to find a direct quotation mentioning that Zelenskyy requested pre-war nuclear missile deployments in Kharkiv.

[4] Upon review, Dr. Brovkin offered the following clarification: “There are millions of people who were born on the territory called Ukraine that do not and did not consider themselves Ukrainian. In the Soviet Union, every person had an item in his passport called nationality which was based on the ethnicity of one's parents. Moreover, what today we call Eastern Ukraine was not called as such in 1922. Before that, it was called Novorossiya, or New Russia. So, my mother was Jewish by nationality and was born in Novorossiya, which was defined as part of the Ukrainian Soviet republic. That does not make her Ukrainian at all.”

 

Who has started aggression in Europe? Ukraine or Russia? Real facts

 

 February 22, 2025

 

Real facts show that it has been intentionally initiated and unleashed by Ukraine.

        1.Unprovocked massive armed aggression has been started by Ukraine against Donbass since April 14, 2014 (in accordance with the Decree # 405/2014 signed by Ukrainian President ad interim and the Speaker of the Parliament  Oleksandr Turchynov (the Decree is attached in Annex in three languages). That time Donbass war a part of Ukraine in the form of Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts or Regions.

The pretext described by Kiev to begin such action was: “to disrupt terrorist acts by Donbass against Ukraine”. However, it was not true. Population of Donbass never committed such acts against Ukraine. By now, nobody has tabled such facts.

What is more important that Donbass has never crossed its administrative border with Ukraine since 2014 till today. In 2014 Donbass freedom fighters possessed only six AK-47 Kalashnikov assault rifles.

       2. Russia has helped Donbass to repel Ukrainian aggression only nearly eight years later – since February 24, 2022 with the aim to stop the Ukrainian policy of genocide against population of Donbass where 14,000 civilians have been killed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine that have used heavy weapons.

In his Address to the People of Ukraine made on April 13, 2014 Acting President, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov said that: «The National Security and Defense Council made a decision to initiate a large-scale anti-terrorist operation involving the Armed Forces of Ukraine».


Food for thought:

Why, on one hand, the USA, Russia and many neutral nations are demanding to end Ukrainian aggression in Europe and to prevent the WW3, and, on the other hand, a small number of NATO and the EU members are seeking the opposite option?


Annex

 In English

 

DECREE OF THE PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE No. 405/2014

 

On the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine dated April 13, 2014 «On urgent measures to overcome the terrorist threat and preserve the territorial integrity of Ukraine»

In accordance with Articles 107 and 112 of the Constitution of Ukraine I decree:

1. To put into effect the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine dated April 13, 2014 «On urgent measures to overcome the terrorist threat and preserve the territorial integrity of Ukraine» (attached, secretly).

2. Control over the implementation of the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, put into effect by this Decree, is entrusted to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.

3. This Decree shall enter into force from the date of its publication.

 Acting President of Ukraine, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov

April 14th, 2014

***

In Ukrainian (original)

УКАЗ ПРЕЗИДЕНТА УКРАЇНИ № 405/2014

 

Про рішення Ради національної безпеки і оборони України від 13 квітня 2014 року «Про невідкладні заходи щодо подолання терористичної загрози і збереження територіальної цілісності України»

Відповідно до статей 107 та 112 Конституції України постановляю:

1. Увести в дію рішення Ради національної безпеки і оборони України від 13 квітня 2014 року «Про невідкладні заходи щодо подолання терористичної загрози і збереження територіальної цілісності України» (додається, таємно).

2. Контроль за виконанням рішення Ради національної безпеки і оборони України, введеного в дію цим Указом, покласти на Секретаря Ради національної безпеки і оборони України.

3. Цей Указ набирає чинності з дня його опублікування.

 

Виконуючий обов'язки Президента України,
Голова Верховної Ради України Олександр Турчинов

14 квітня 2014 року

***

In Russian

УКАЗ ПРЕЗИДЕНТА УКРАИНЫ № 405/2014

 

 О решении Совета национальной безопасности и обороны Украины от 13 апреля 2014 года «О неотложных мерах по преодолению террористической угрозы и сохранению территориальной целостности Украины»

В соответствии со статьями 107 и 112 Конституции Украины постановляю:

1. Ввести в действие решение Совета национальной безопасности и обороны Украины от 13 апреля 2014 года «О неотложных мерах по преодолению террористической угрозы и сохранению территориальной целостности Украины» (прилагается, тайно).

2. Контроль за выполнением решения Совета национальной безопасности и обороны Украины, введенного в действие настоящим Указом, возложить на Секретаря Совета национальной безопасности и обороны Украины.

3. Настоящий Указ вступает в силу со дня его опубликования.

Исполняющий обязанности Президента Украины, Председатель Верховной Рады Украины Олександр Турчинов

 14 апреля 2014 года

 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Who's to blame? Collapse of nuclear arms treaties. What it looks like to a Russian

 

Dr. Vladimir Kozin in Regis Tremblay's show

A riveting discussion between two nuclear arms treaties experts; one from the USA and the other from Russia. Neither are hopeful for a resumption of talks because Russia no longer trusts anything about the USA, and the USA continues to lie, provoke and threaten Russia with "EXTINCTION."

You will see this through the eyes of a Russian expert, and that is one of the more salient points in this discussion. The other important fact: both know that without nuclear arms treaties....we are all dead!

But, both hold out a shred of hope and will keep pursing a path to restore trust that leads to serious, nuclear arms negotiations!

Why does Kiev seek a longer war in Europe?

March 9, 2025

 

A response to this question is being asked by many people – from academic community and from grass-root people.

There could be several objective factors that can explain the purpose of ex-Ukrainian president Zelensky why he stubbornly rejects Washington’s and Moscow’s proposals to put an end to military hostilities initiated by Ukrainian leaders since April 14, 2014 first against Donbass that has been widened against Donbass since February 17, 2022, and then later proliferated to Russia – since September 2022.

What are these factors?

  1. Personally, ex-Ukrainian president Zelensky gets substantial quantity of profits from such aggression and appropriated huge funds offered to Ukraine by the USA ($ 350 bln) and the EU/NATO countries (more than $100 bln), and by selling US/European weapons supplied to Ukraine at some arms black markets in many regions of the world.
  2. He enthusiastically politically and financially is supported by the EU/NATO that are supplying and will be supplying Kiev with lethal arms and ammunition for extra several years, mistakenly believing that Zelensky will be able to defeat Russia.

3. Former Ukrainian president Zelensky is happy with a lot of sectoral and individual economic, commercial and financial sanctions wrongly and unjustifiably imposed by the USA and the EU on Russia (so far around 21,000), while enjoying ZERO sanctions the same scope on Ukraine for the aggression Kiev unleashed in Europe in 2014. Recently, there have been seen threats from outside to consider large-scale banking sanctions and tariffs on Russia until a ceasefire and final settlement on peace is reached.

But why on Moscow if it is ready to make permanent, irreversible and stable political deal with Ukraine? Why on Moscow who never attacked Ukraine first?

On the other hand, why not imposed on Kiev who does not display any desire to halt the conflict it has created in Europe eleven years ago?

  1. Former Ukrainian president Zelensky may be able to stay in power as long as he wishes by avoiding presidential elections that are long overdue in Ukraine.
  2. He is happy and proud that he has been selected by the EU/NATO as a prime mover to initiate and wage current bloody proxy war in Europe.
  3. He has formidable superiority complex cultivated by him personally and his supporters, and also mistakenly believing (like the EU/NATO) that gradually weakening Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) lacking Navy and Air Force can destroy nuclear, hypersonic and drone-capable Russia who is defending itself.

One-sided stance

Picture backgroundRecently, there appeared voices to punish Russia for “pounding” Ukraine on the battlefield. Such voices sound very strange, because Russia never attacked or invaded Ukraine first. On the contrary, Russia has been attacked by Ukraine first. Therefore, it has a legitimate right to counter-attack Ukraine as a country being initial attacker against Donbass since April 2014 where Kiev killed 14,000 citizens there, and later against Russia since February 17, 2022. In Kursk Region UAF killed around 400 civilians and wounded more than 1,210 since August 6, 2024.

Between February 17, 2022-December 9, 2024 totally 5,148 civilians, including 153 children, were killed by UAF in Donetsk People’s Republic. Between February 17, 2022-December 28, 2023 totally1,010 civilians were killed by UAF in Lugansk People’s Republic. Russian Orthodox churches are special targets selected by UAF.

Now Kiev is waging a wide-scale war against Russia, especially against citizens. UAF attacked four Russian operational Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). 34 regions inside Russia out of 89 have been already attacked by UAF – either by long-range missiles or strike drones. UAF used depleted uranium, cluster munitions and chemical warfare agents against Russia who has not employed such weapons against Ukraine at all.


There is a world-wide consensus that any aggressor must be punished any time,

and at any place.


 

No doubt, the USA would do the same, if it were initially attacked by any aggressor. It strongly punished Japan for its attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941.

Critical remark that only Russia pounded Ukraine will encourage Zelensky to continue the war in Europe he is intensifying with the help of the EU/NATO. Such one-sided critical remark will create additional obstacles towards a peace deal the USA is actively fostering.

Warnings addressed to Russia that the USA could impose extra sanctions on the Russian Federation are not rational. They will only intensify current Ukrainian aggression. They may sour US-Russia relations Washington and Moscow recently began to restore. 

 Have the USA or the EU announced just ONE sanction against Ukraine for its 11 years-long aggression in Europe?  No, not yet. As is known, so far, the USA and the EU have not imposed any sanction on Kiev for its massive killings and broad destruction of social infrastructure in former regions in Ukraine and in undisputable continental regions inside Russia. The EU and NATO wage direct aggressive war against Russia.

Elon Mask who leads the Department of Government Efficiency only recently articulated initiative to enforce sanctions on ten Ukrainian oligarchs. Will it stop Ukrainian aggression? Musk’s suggestion sparked mixed reactions online. Some users questioned whether sanctioning Ukraine’s business elite would actually pressure Kiev to negotiate, noting that Ukraine mostly relies on Western funding. Others pointed out that just last month Kiev itself sanctioned several prominent businessmen. Has such move stopped the war?

It is very positive step that Washington decided not to share intelligence data used for offensive military operations with Kiev leaders. However, it sanctioned to offer such data used during defensive military operations. A question may be asked: what is the difference between them if Russian Armed Forces are knocking down US-made HIMARS MRLS aimed at Russian territory almost every day? One more point: up to now Elon Musk’s Starlink network is still operating, though some hints to switch it off have been announced. On the other hand, the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency has stopped providing Ukraine with satellite imagery paid for by Washington.

Ex-Ukrainian president Zelensky is still advocating his “peace plan” fitted with the ban to stop military hostilities at sea and in the air. But why not on the ground? For the sake of continuation of the war? No doubt. Exactly for that. Why he has not incorporated into “a peace deal” a provision not to attack NPPs located in Russia? Why Kiev is happy with president Macron’s desire to unfold “French nuclear deterrence umbrella” over Europe?


Conclusion

Former president Zelensky is still in favor of a longer aggressive war on European soil. He is committed to make it wider. Even wishing to add to it French nuclear forces and to accept various foreign peacekeepers on its soil. The US President Donald Trump was right when he accused Zelensky of “gambling with World War3” by refusing to seek peace with Russia.

Such war must be radically stopped via one method – politically. Or, if there is no success, militarily. Via carefully calibrated and direct cooperation between Russia and the USA.  Both options are reasonable and rational. They depend on their will.


 

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

 

Will the US nuclear missiles be fielded in Europe once again?

On November 17, 2020 Manlio Dinucci, a famous Italian geographer, journalist and a geopolitical scientist, published in “The Manifesto” an article entitled as “The Art of War. Nuclear Euromissiles are Back” where he has warned of a possibility of the U.S. nuclear-tipped missiles’ deployment in Europe once again after the demise of the INF Treaty in August 2019 upon Washington’s insistence. He relied his predicament on the special contract signed on November 6, 2020 between Lockheed Martin and the US Army. His revelations have received critical remarks from Hans Kristensen, the well-known Danish nuclear arms researcher currently working at FAS.

While quoting the views expressed by these prominent authors, I would like to suggest my own comment in this case.

First, here is Manlio Dinucci’s article in full.

“Over five years ago, we titled in the Manifesto (9 June 2015) “Are missiles returning to Comiso? (Sicily).” This hypothesis was ignored by the entire political spectrum and dismissed by some self-styled expert as “alarmist.” The alarm, unfortunately, was well founded. A few days ago, on November 6, Lockheed Martin (the same company that produces the F-35s) signed a first $ 340 million contract with the US Army for the production of medium-range missiles, including those armed with nuclear warheads, designed to be installed in Europe. Missiles of this category (with a ground base and range between 500 and 5500 km) were prohibited by the INF Treaty, signed in 1987 by Presidents Gorbachev and Reagan: it had eliminated the nuclear ballistic missiles Pershing 2, deployed by the United States in Western Germany, and the nuclear cruise Tomahawk missiles, deployed by the United States in Italy (Comiso, Sicily), Great Britain, West Germany, Belgium, and Holland, and at the same time the SS-20 ballistic missiles deployed by the Soviet Union on its territory.

In 2014, without any evidence, the Obama administration accused Russia of having tested a cruise missile (acronym 9M729) in the category prohibited by the Treaty, and, in 2015, announced that "faced with the violation of the INF Treaty by Russia, the United States is considering the deployment of ground-based missiles in Europe.”

The baton then passed to the Trump administration, which in 2019 decided on the withdrawal of the United States from the INF Treaty, accusing Russia of having “deliberately violated” it.

After some missile tests, Lockheed Martin was commissioned to build a cruise missile deriving from the Tomahawk and a ballistic missile deriving from Raytheon's SM-6. According to the contract, the two missiles will be operational in 2023: therefore, ready to be installed in Europe in two years.

The geographic factor should be kept in mind: while a medium-range US nuclear ballistic missile launched from Europe can hit Moscow in a few minutes, a similar missile launched by Russia can hit European capitals, but not Washington. Reversing the scenario, it is as if Russia were to deploy medium-range nuclear missiles in Mexico.

It should also be noted that the SM-6  performs the function of "three missiles in one," as Raytheon specified: anti-aircraft, anti-missile and attack missile. The nuclear missile deriving from the SM-6 will therefore be able to be used by the US “shield” ships and land installations in Europe, their launch tubes, as Lockheed Martin specified, can launch “missiles for all missions.”

In his October 26, 2020 statement, President Putin reaffirmed the INF Treaty validity, calling the US withdrawal a “grave mistake,” and Russia's commitment not to deploy similar missiles, until the US deploys its own missiles close to Russian territory. He, therefore, proposed a “mutual moratorium” to NATO countries and “mutual verification measures,” that is inspections in the reciprocal missile installations.

The Russian proposal was ignored by NATO. Its secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg reiterated on 10 November that “in such an uncertain world, nuclear weapons continue to play a vital role in preserving peace.”

No voices were raised from European governments and parliaments, even though Europe risks being at a nuclear confrontation forefront similar or more dangerous than that of the Cold War. But this is not the threat of Covid 19, and therefore nobody talks of it.

The European Union, (21 over 27 members are part of NATO), has already made its voice heard when, in 2018 it rejected the resolution presented by Russia on the “Preservation and observance of the INF Treaty” at the United Nations, giving the green light to the installation of new US nuclear missiles in Europe.

Will anything change once Joe Biden takes office in the White House? Or, will Democrat Biden (formerly Obama’s vice president) sign the installation of the new US nuclear missiles in Europe, after Democratic Obama opened the new nuclear confrontation with Russia and Republican Trump aggravated it by tearing up the INF Treaty?”

On November 20, 2020 Hans Kristensen has observed that this article is wrong. In his words, “No contract has been signed “for the production of medium-range missiles, including those armed with nuclear warheads, designed to be installed in Europe.” The contract is for production of a prototype conventional missile for the Army. There are no plans to equip it with a nuclear warhead.

Nor will the missile have sufficient range to hit Moscow.”

In my personal view, the specific details of the contract mentioned by Manlio Dinucci have not been fully revealed: whether it is dealt with an INF-related missile in the form of a “prototype conventional missile” as Hans Kristensen has put it, or it is linked with a future nuclear-tipped missile as Manlio Dinucci has said. Nevertheless, I suspect that any U.S. prototype conventional missile can be easily converted into a real missile fitted with nuclear warheads. There will be no problem for its producer - the USA - to hammer it out.

In this context Moscow is worried about that Washington fully supported by NATO would deploy new nuclear medium-range missiles both in Asia Pacific Region and in Europe. It became clear from the U.S. ex-Defense Secretary Mike T. Esper’s remarks at the Atlantic Council dated October 20,2020 when he was Defense Secretary at that time.

He said: “But the Chinese have built an extensive array of well over a thousand missiles, intermediate-range ballistic missiles in the Pacific and the Russians have too, and they did it in violation of the INF Treaty. And we recognized this in NATO, we did it last year.  So, we were committed to making sure that we build similar capabilities for both theaters. But at the same time, we need to improve our missile defenses against those type of systems and others”.

On the basis of the U.S. 2018 NPR it looks like than newly-built U.S. medium-range missiles will have nuclear warheads, because from Donald Trump’s view to have them with conventional warhead would be irrational from the U.S. military perspective. And if such missiles will be able to cover the medium-range distance (1,000-5,500 km) they can easily hit the European part of Russia, including Moscow, plus Russian Far Eastern part if they are fielded in the APR.

Will President-elect Joe Biden return to the compliance with INF Treaty that is dead due to the U.S. withdrawal from it under an artificial pretext? The Russian 9M729 missile has maximum range 480 km that is less than any missile mentioned in the INF Treaty geographic limits. I think that Democratic front-runner will not come back to the INF Treaty if he becomes de jure and de facto the 46th U.S. President. The argument for this predicament is: the USA has never returned to the arms control treaties with the USSR or Russia it has scrapped. There has not been any such precedent. So, the INF Treaty cannot be revived by both Republican or Democratic Administrations. It has to be noted additionally that Washington has rejected Moscow’s offer to proclaim the moratorium on the deployment of the new INF-related nuclear missiles on bilateral basis.

So, the European and the Asia Pacific nations have to be vigilant: the additional U.S. nuclear threat may actually appear near their homes.

By Vladimir P. Kozin, Corresponding Member, Russian Academy of Military Sciences

 

Wrong pressure upon Russia by the West and Ukraine

 

May 30, 2025

Second round of bilateral talks in Istanbul

It is very strange that on the eve of the second round of direct Russian-Ukrainian talks to be held on June 2nd, 2025 in Istanbul a number of NATO nations expressed the desire to force Russia to take part in such discussions. The first round took place on May 16 at the same venue. Ukraine’s foreign minister has also accused Russia of stalling these peace negotiations, and demanded to share a memorandum outlining its peace terms before these talks with Kiev commences.

The fact is that it was Russia who on May 28th initially proposed such direct round of official negotiations to be held on June 2nd and its agenda. On the other hand, Ukraine confirmed its oral intention to take part in the talks only on May 30th.

As to the memorandum in question, Moscow has promised to share its text with the Ukrainian team at the Istanbul meeting. It is normal diplomatic practice if the two parties have agreed about the timing of the exchange of such documents, and noted that both texts should not be disclosed to the general public before the talks. Moscow’s memorandum outlines a path towards a peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian aggression, as well as other proposals. Ukrainian text is not known, except a short statement that it has 22 terms (items).

There are still differences between Kiev and Moscow about the tempo and the overall results of their talks. While Ukraine focuses on a cease-fire first, before moving on to negotiations for a broader peace deal, Russia repeatedly has stressed that it wants to concentrate on solving the “root causes” of the Ukrainian aggression it began in April 2014 against Donbass and later versus Russia.

Before any future political summit involving Russia, Ukraine and the USA the Kremlin first expects to see the specific results from direct “technical negotiations” between Russo-Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul, spokesman Dmitry Peskov has announced recently.

Several serious obstacles erected enroute to the talks

There are several serious obstacles facing the Istanbul negotiations.

Amongst them are massive Ukrainian drone and missile attacks against civilian infrastructure. There is an of the intensification of Ukrainian drone and missiles incursions into Russia over the past week. A total of 1,465 drones had been shot down by Russian air defenses, but nonetheless they led to civilian casualties and deaths, including among children. Vassily Nebenzia, Moscow’s envoy to the UN, has said on May 30th that Russia would go on with its Special Military Operation, if Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) do not stop killing civilians in Russia.

NATO and many EU nations are still supplying UAF with deadly weapons that also kill Russian citizens and destroy civilian infrastructure. Is there any expediency in creating a cease-fire between Kiev and Moscow when the EU and NATO are still sending lethal arms to Ukraine and when ex-president Vladimir Zelensky is continuing a forceful and violent mobilization in Ukraine?

Potential response to Taurus employment against Russia

Russia prepared to strike Germany if Taurus missiles are used – senior MPRussia could authorize strikes on German territory if Ukraine uses German-supplied Taurus cruise missiles to attack Russian targets, a senior Russian lawmaker has warned. Andrey Kartapolov, Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee and a former deputy defense minister, said the long-range missiles require direct German military involvement to operate – making Berlin a potential participant in any such attack. “We are prepared to intercept the Taurus missiles, strike the launch sites, the operators, and, if necessary, the locations from which they are delivered,” he warned.  

Kartapolov also emphasized that Ukraine lacks the technical expertise to operate such weapons independently. He claimed that earlier deliveries of long-range systems – including the U.S.-made ATACMS, Britain’s Storm Shadow, and France’s SCALP – have only been deployed with the assistance of Western military specialists.

“Ukrainian troops can press the launch button – that’s not the problem,” the chairman noted. “But they cannot program the targets. That data comes from American and European satellites. If Germany supplies these missiles, German personnel will inevitably be involved [in combat operations] on the ground.”

The Taurus KEPD 350 missile has a range of over 500 kilometers and is capable of reaching targets deep within Russian territory, including Moscow.

Berlin’s approval of Ukrainian strikes deep into Russia could result in Moscow removing its own constraints, Sergey Shoigu, Secretary of the Russian National Security Council and ex-defense minister has warned on May 30th, 2025.


Some Russian military experts are asking the President of Russia to destroy any Taurus production plant – irrespective where it is or will be located: in Germany or in Ukraine


 

The German Defense Ministry announced recently that it would provide Kiev with an additional €5.2 billion ($5.6 billion) in military aid. Much of the funding, according to the ministry, will support the production of long-range weaponry inside Ukraine. It does not matter where such weapons will be produced. Germany has already involved into a direct war against Russia together with Ukraine.

Though there are clear voices amongst several NATO members not to admit Ukraine into the transatlantic alliance at all. But there is no official commitment to this effect from the whole military bloc so far.

Kiev is accused of systematic torture of Russian POW. Returned Russian GIs have sadistic abuse while in Ukrainian custody. Maksim Grigoriev, who chairs an international Commission investigating Ukrainian government crimes, said his findings were based on extensive testimonies from Russian soldiers released in prisoner exchanges. He presented a report quoting statements from 30 individuals on May 30. The report cites waterboarding, electrocution, and the use of attack dogs against POWs as common Ukrainian methods.

Naturally, these are not all barriers that have been erected across the negotiation table in Istanbul.

Written by Vladimir P. Kozin

Xi & Putin - Changing the World - The Historic Meeting in Moscow

 

Vladimir Kozin and Regis Tremblay discuss the many aspects of this historic meeting...deals, partnerships, peace plans, and the end of Pax Americana.

«U.S. Military Space Policy: Key Guidelines and Future Capabilities»

В.П. Козин опубликовал очередную монографию  «U.S. Military Space Policy: Key Guidelines and Future Capabilities». Moscow. 2019. 312 pp.

В книге изложена современная космическая политика США, разработанная нынешней американской администрацией. В критическом плане проанализированы основополагающие американские военно-стратегические установки и президентские директивы об использовании космического пространства в долгосрочных военных целях, принятые в период первого президентского срока Д. Трампа, которые обеспечивают силовое доминирование Пентагона в космосе. Повышенное внимание уделено анализу функциональных особенностей Космического командования и формируемых Космических сил Соединенных Штатов.

Значительный раздел издания посвящен изложению линии России в области использования космоса в мирных целях и описанию ее конкретных внешнеполитических акций, направленных на недопущение размещения в нем ударных космических вооружений.

«Авангард» и «Сармат» - вопросы, на которые и Трамп не может ответить

Соединённые Штаты пытаются сделать так, чтобы Россия избавилась от своих перспективных ракетных разработок последнего времени просто так, как говорят, «за здорово живёшь». Но их ли дело указывать нам

Речь идёт о новом ударном российском ракетном комплексе «Авангард» с гиперзвуковым маневрирующим блоком и новой межконтинентальной баллистической ракете «Сармат», которые не имеют аналогов в мире и которые вызвали в Государственном департаменте и Министерстве обороны США глубокую тревогу.

Знает ли Андреа, о чём говорит?

Такая тревога и даже озабоченность проявилась у американской стороны по поводу их тактико-технических характеристик, а также по причине того, что американский военно-промышленный комплекс практически не смог ничего противопоставить этим российским системам в плане их ударно-боевых возможностей и полётных показателей, в особенности скоростных параметров.

Не имея оснований для достижения взаимоприемлемых договоренностей с Москвой по данной проблематике, в Вашингтоне решили воспользоваться теорий «искусственных увязок» таких систем с договорно-правовыми актами, которые, на его взгляд, имеют непосредственное отношение к обозначенным системам вооружений. Недолго раздумывая, там  пришли к выводу, что обе эти новейшие перспективные и наиболее высокотехнологичные российские системы, позволяющие многократно усилить оборонный потенциал России, подпадают под действие российско-американского Договора о мерах по дальнейшему сокращению и ограничению стратегических наступательных вооружений (Договора СНВ-3), который был подписан в Праге в апреле 2010 года.

Об этом, например, заявила в сенатском Комитете по международным делам заместитель государственного секретаря США по контролю над вооружениями и вопросам международной безопасности Андреа Томпсон. Она также проинформировала, что эти системы вооружений могут быть развернуты до 5 февраля 2021 года, то есть до даты истечения срока действия Договора СНВ-3. Поэтому, резюмировала высокопоставленная представительница американского внешнеполитического ведомства, они будут считаться «существующими типами» и будут подпадать под положения названного договора «в соответствующий момент цикла их разработки».

Она также добавила, что три иные российские системы также «отвечают американским критериям новых видов стратегических наступательных вооружений» в соответствии с этим же договором. Очевидно, Андреа Томпсон имела в виду ракетный комплекс «Кинжал», океанскую многоцелевую систему «Посейдон», а также крылатую ракету с ядерным двигателем «Буревестник».

Такое заявление ответственной сотрудницы американского дипломатического ведомства не является каким-то новым откровением американской стороны. Некоторые американские эксперты ранее уже излагали подобные мысли, вероятно, рассчитывая, что Москва сразу же бросится ликвидировать озабоченность Вашингтона по этому поводу и заявит, что откажется от реализации национальных программ о создании перспективных систем вооружений, которые призваны в разы укрепить не только её национальную безопасность, но и стратегическую стабильность в глобальном измерении, поскольку их принятие на вооружение Россией сможет выправить некоторые дисбалансы в ядерных, противоракетных и обычных вооружениях, которые возникли по инициативе Соединённых Штатов и в их пользу.

Есть ли у российских сторонников Трампа силы и ума:  проштудируйте «New START»

Подхватили «идеи Томпсон» и некоторые российские эксперты, которые стали утверждать, что российская сторона, мол, не отказывается обсуждать с Вашингтоном свои новые ударные системы в рамках двустороннего диалога по стратегической стабильности. Странная позиция.

Складывается впечатление, что Андреа Томпсон и некоторые зарубежные и российские эксперты даже не потрудились ещё раз внимательно прочитать текст Договора СНВ-3, на который в ходе обозначенных сенатских слушаний сослалась эта заместитель государственного секретаря.

Выступая с подобным заявлением, она, курирующая в Государственном департаменте проблематику контроля над вооружениями, не могла не знать в силу своих функциональных обязанностей, что ни система «Авангард», ни новая МБР «Сармат», ни другие новые перспективные российские виды вооружений не подпадают под ограничения, введёные Договором СНВ-3.

Такие системы просто не упомянуты в этом договоре. В пункте 8 статьи III договора содержатся конкретные перечисления носителей СНВ двух договорившихся сторон. Но не этих систем. Там заявлено, что на дату подписания настоящего документа «существующими типами» межконтинентальными баллистическими ракетами для Российской Федерации являлись МБР «РС-12М», «РС-12М2», «РС-18», «РС-20» и «РС-24», а к существующим российским типам баллистических ракет подводных лодок были отнесены БРПЛ «РСМ-50», «РСМ-52», «РСМ-54» и «РСМ-56». В этой же статье перечисляются существующие у сторон пусковые установки для МБР и БРПЛ двух государств и типы тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков.

Как видно, никаких упоминаний об «Авангардах», «Сарматах» или ещё о каких-то ракетных системах в этом договоре нет и в помине.

В данном контексте имеет значение и пункт 2 статьи II, где говорится о том, что каждая из сторон имеет право самостоятельно определять состав и структуру своих стратегических наступательных вооружений. Немаловажно и положение пункта 1 статьи V, в котором за сторонами признаётся право  производить модернизацию и замену стратегических наступательных вооружений.

Конечно, в том случае, если американская сторона на официальном или на неофициальном уровне вдруг ещё раз поднимет вопрос о ликвидации новых перспективных видов вооружений России на основе Договора СНВ-3, то вполне можно было бы ответить ей в таком же духе, как однажды заявил президент Дональд Трамп по поводу возможных дискуссий с Москвой по проблематике противоракетной обороны: «Я больше не намерен обсуждать вопросы ПРО с Россией. Могу рассматривать их только со своими союзниками по НАТО».

Наш ответ Трампу

Очевидно, по той же логике и в подобном же ключе Москва могла бы отреагировать Вашингтону, одновременно посоветовав ему ещё раз проштудировать Договор СНВ-3, известный там как «New START». Может быть дан и иной ответ американской стороне на её искусственную увязку новых перспективных российских вооружений с Пражским договором 2010 года. Такой ответ может быть прост и конкретен: Москва не намерена вести никаких дискуссий по проблематике ограничений или сокращений названных систем с США, которые до сих пор негативно относятся к 13 международным договорам в сфере контроля над вооружениями, шесть из которых имеют прямое отношение к ядерным вооружениям.

Коснувшись проблематики продления срока действия Договора СНВ-3, президент России Владимир Путин заявил на встрече с главами ведущих мировых информационных агентств 6 июня в Санкт-Петербурге на полях Международного экономического форума, что Россия обогнала своих конкурентов в разработке гиперзвукового оружия.

Он также добавил одну важную субстантивную деталь: новейшие российские высокоточные и суперскоростные системы вооружений способны гарантировать безопасность страны на длительную историческую перспективу. Глава российского государства одновременно не исключил и вероятность отказа России от продления Договора СНВ-3 по вышеназванной причине, а также по причине того, если США не пойдут на его продление на последующие пять лет, то есть до 2026 года.Сейчас у нас на повестке дня продление Договора СНВ-3. Но можно и не продлевать. У нас наши новейшие системы такие, что гарантировано обеспечат безопасность России на достаточно длительную историческую перспективу, имею в виду то, что мы сделали всё-таки значительный шаг вперёд.

Вопросы, на которые Трамп не сможет ответить

Так какой имеется смысл ликвидировать подобные российские системы вооружений, если они действительно могут обеспечить безопасность российского государства на долгие годы вперёд?

Какой в этом имеется смысл, если они уже стали поступать на вооружение российских Вооружённых сил и если они вообще не подпадают под положения Пражского договора?

Какой имеется смысл в этом, если Вашингтон, который пообещал отмалчиваться от изложения своей позитивной позиции по Пражскому договору вплоть до следующего года, временами называя его «невыгодным для Соединённых Штатов», в конечном итоге реально откажется от его продления на последующие пять лет?

Какой в этом имеется смысл ликвидировать подобные российские системы вооружений, если Вашингтон практически отказался признавать наличие взаимосвязи между стратегическими наступательными вооружениями и стратегическими оборонительными вооружениями, что было зафиксировано в преамбуле Договора СНВ-3?

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: Еженедельник “Звезда”

«Акторы» или «экторы»? Ни то и ни другое. А что же?

В многочисленных публичных выступлениях представителей российских академических кругов, а также в их публикациях по политическим вопросам и проблематике международных отношений все чаще мелькает магически-завораживающее и для многих непонятное слово «акторы».

Вполне очевидно, что сторонники этого слова, желая блеснуть своим углубленным знанием английского языка, имеют в виду английское слово «actors», которое в современных англо-русских словарях имеет основное значение – «актеры». Но тогда почему «акторы», а не «экторы», если слово «actors» в английском языке имеет только один-единственный вид произношения: «экторс». Но дело, разумеется, не в произвольном произношении английского слова «actors» на немецкий лад.

Суть использования слова «акторы» многими представителями российской науки в выступлениях и публикациях по политическим и международным вопросам заключается в том, что они не осведомлены, что английское слово «actors» давно имеет еще два фиксированных значения.

Такие значения проявляются в двух словосочетаниях «international actors»  и  «non-state actors», что подтверждается внешнеполитическими документами России и других государств мира, а также в системе многочисленных международных организаций, в том числе и ООН. В МИД России никогда не скажут и не напишут слово «акторы» вместо «международные игроки» или «негосударственные субъекты».

Итак, в первом случае словосочетание «international actors» означает «международные игроки», то есть государственные образования, действующие на международной арене.

Во втором случае словосочетание «non-state actors» означает «негосударственные субъекты», под которыми понимаются террористические формирования.

Поэтому, если в выступлениях и публикациях англоязычных представителей употребляется слово «actors», то необходимо аккуратно учитывать контекст применения этого слова. Если не уточнять в переводе на русский язык значение этого слова, то возникнет недопонимание: что говорящий или написавший имел в виду, если он употребил слово «акторы» в русском языке.

Например, в одном из своих первых публичных выступлений президент США Джозеф Байден употребил слово «actors» именно в двух обозначенных смыслах. Несмотря на это многие российские специалисты и в первом, и во втором случае, особо не задумываясь или просто по незнанию перевели на русский язык соответствующие разделы его публичного обращения со словами «actors» просто туманными словами «акторы».

Но разве не ясно, что «международные игроки» и «негосударственные субъекты» имеют разные значения?

И каков же смысловой результат использования слова «акторы» в данном случае? Нулевой. Поскольку эта транслитерация в переводе на русский язык скрыла два разных смысла заявления американского президента. И, соответственно, будущие действия его администрации.

Так не лучше ли давать правильный перевод, чем везде и всюду использовать слово «actors» в единственном варианте как некие неуточненные «акторы»?

Автор: В.П. Козин

«Безъядерный треугольник» Дональда Трампа. А реален ли он?

Это предложение президента США имеет массу недостатков

По заявлению пресс-секретаря Белого дома Сары Сандерс, в ходе состоявшегося 3 мая 2019 года по инициативе американской стороны телефонного разговора между президентами США и России Дональд Трамп высказался за выработку «нового договора по ядерному оружию» с участием трех ядерных держав: КНР, России и США.

Некоторые российские и зарубежные эксперты выразили глубокое сомнение, что подобная идея может быть реализована с участием ограниченного круга государств (только обозначенные три), если к ним не присоединятся остальные шесть государств, обладающие ядерным оружием и средствами его доставки. Но мир, свободный от ядерного оружия, не может быть ограниченным. Он только может быть универсальным и необратимым.

Было обращено внимание и на то, что идея о «безъядерном мире» по Дональду Трампу не содержит никаких этапов его создания и не определяет конечных сроков выхода на этот рубеж.

Предложение Белого дома подверглось критике и по той причине, что оно не учитывает многие факторы, определяющие уровень стратегической стабильности в мире. Задаются вполне логичные вопросы: намерена ли нынешняя американская администрация вывести из Европы все тактическое ядерное оружие США и изменить свою наступательную ядерную доктрину, предусматривающую применение ядерных потенциалов в первом ударе? Прекратят ли США патрулирование Европы и Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона тяжелой стратегической авиацией и самолетами «двойного назначения», которые могут нести ядерное оружие на борту? Намерен ли Вашингтон ограничивать бесконтрольное развертывание ударно-боевых и информационно-разведывательных средств ПРО, усиливающих ракетно-ядерные вооружения.

Американский специалист по названным вооружениям Джон Вулфстал, который занимал должность специального советника президента Обамы по вопросам контроля над вооружениями и нераспространению, заявил, что предложение о «безъядерном мире» Дональда Трампа представляет собой «дымовую завесу», которая призвана закамуфлировать окончательный разрыв США не только с Договором РСМД, но и с Договором СНВ-3.

По словам официальных американских представителей, в последнее время Дональд Трамп также сделал акцент на необходимости сокращения расходов на ядерные вооружения только КНР и России, которые расходуют на оборону в целом, соответственно, 250 млрд и 47 млрд долларов. При этом он «забыл» упомянуть возможность сокращения собственных ядерных расходов США, которые во много раз превышают подобные целевые ассигнования Пекина и Москвы.

Принципиально важным представляется напомнить, что 45-й американский президент запросил у конгресса на новый финансовый 2020 год рекордную сумму на военные цели в 750 млрд долларов, часть из которой пойдет именно на модернизацию существующих стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений США. По данным Бюджетного управления конгресса, США могут получить 494 млрд долларов на финансирование военных ядерных программ в период 2019-2028 годов. Это на 94 млрд долларов, или на 23 процента, больше, чем сумма, которую предполагалась направить на эти же цели в 2017-2027 годах. В бюджете на 2020 финансовый год запрошено 793 млн долларов для завершение разработки и производство новой корректируемой ядерной авиабомбы В-61-12, которая вскоре должна появиться в Европе и в АТР.

С 2025 года начнут появляться первые образцы компонентов носителей принципиальной новой стратегической ядерной триады США, которая будет находиться на вооружении практически до конца текущего столетия. На ее создание и обслуживание потребуется от 1,2 трлн до 1,7 трлн долларов. Ни одно государство в мире не расходует столь внушительных сумм на ракетно-ядерные вооружения. Факт, как говорится, бесспорный.

Следует одновременно учесть, что Дональд Трамп не намерен менять ядерную стратегию, которая основывается на установке «безусловное наступательное ядерное сдерживание». В ней также останутся положения о нанесении первого ядерного удара, концепция «расширенного ядерного сдерживания», концепция о нанесении ядерных ударов ядерными боезарядами малой мощности, доктринальная установка «эскалация с целью деэскалации», то есть установка на применение ядерного оружия с целью деэскалации конфликтов с применением обычных вооружений. США не намерены отказываться от соглашений о «разделении ядерной ответственности», которые они подписали со своими союзниками по НАТО.

Созданию безъядерного мира будет явно препятствовать односторонняя денонсация Соединенными Штатами ДРСМД. 2 августа 2019 года они официально выйдут из него и приступят к испытаниям ракет средней дальности, в том числе мобильно-грунтовых с ядерным снаряжением, которые ранее запрещались этим договором. Вашингтон так и не дал обещания не развертывать такие новые ракеты ни в Европе, ни в зоне АТР.

Одновременно Вашингтон не намерен выполнять в полном объеме Договор СНВ-3 и не собирается продлевать его до 2026 года. Главная причина такой линии заключается в том, что Белый дом рассчитывает иметь большую свободу рук для проведения радикальной модернизации существующих СЯС и создания качественно новой стратегической ядерной триады, которая будет существовать до конца текущего столетия. Как заявила в марте 2019 года заместитель государственного секретаря по вопросам контроля над вооружениями и международной безопасности Андреа Томпсон, Договор СНВ-3 «не представляет интереса» для Соединенных Штатов.  

Одновременно американская сторона не признает взаимосвязь стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений со стратегическими оборонительными вооружениями, то есть с противоракетными системами, что зафиксировано в преамбуле Договора СНВ-3. В конгресс США внесен законопроект, который ограничивает продление этого договора после 2021 года еще на пять лет.

Что касается вопроса продления Договора СНВ-3 еще на пять лет, то есть до 2026 года, то Москва не исключает возможности обсуждения условий для такого решения. Но именно «условий для продления», а не возможность автоматического продления этого договора, да еще любой ценой и в ущерб свой национальной обороне и безопасности.

Важное обстоятельство: если Россия до 2026 года в случае продления Договора СНВ-3 оставит лимиты по ядерным боезарядам и носителям СНВ соответственно до уровня 1550 и до 800 единиц, то не придется ли ей с учетом появления новых видов российских СНВ преждевременно сокращать существующие, но еще функционально эффективные их виды либо сдерживать поступление на вооружение новых видов СНВ,развертывание которых требуется интересами национальной безопасности? Как будут вписываться в названные количественные «потолки» существующие новые и более перспективные виды российских СНВ, которые должны будут противостоять и новой американской стратегической ядерной триаде, и объединенной глобальной противоракетной инфраструктуре США и НАТО, и другим существующим и новым военным угрозам и вызовам?

По инициативе американской стороны в середине мая 2019 года состоялся визит в Россию государственного секретаря США Майка Помпео. За несколько дней до своей поездки в Россию, выступая в Беверли Хиллс, он вновь обрушился на российскую сторону за «несоблюдение» Договора РСМД, хотя, начиная с 1999 года, Соединенные Штаты нарушили его 117 раз и при этом до сих пор не привели доказательств его нарушения со стороны России.

Уже после проведения встречи в формате Владимир Путин и Майк Помпео в середине мая упомянутая ранее Андреа Томпсон вновь предпочла уклониться от ответа на вопрос: собирается ли Вашингтон продлить срок действия Договора СНВ-3 на пятилетний срок или нет. «Администрация до сих пор не приняла какое-то решение о возможном продлении срока действия Договора СНВ-3», – заявила она.

Все названные обстоятельства вступают в явное противоречие с планом Дональда Трампа о создании некоего ограниченного по форме и по содержанию некоего «безъядерного мира», существенные детали которого он так и не огласил.

Как сообщил помощник президента России Юрий Ушаков, прорыва в отношениях Соединенных Штатов и России по итогам сочинских бесед «пока нет». По его словам, одной из ключевых тем стал вопрос стратегической стабильности. В частности, было выражено разочарование в связи с решением Вашингтона выйти из Договора РСМД. Кроме того, американская и российская стороны обсудили ситуацию вокруг договора о СНВ-3. Юрий Ушаков заявил, что если в Вашингтоне заранее не определятся по своей позиции, то российской стороне придется принимать «все необходимые меры для обеспечения собственной безопасности и повышения обороноспособности».

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: InfoRos

«Боезарядов столько, что можно взорвать земной шар»

10 лет назад Россия и США договорились по ядерным ракетам, и мир стал безопаснее. Но надолго ли?

Ровно 10 лет назад, 8 апреля 2010 года, президент России Дмитрий Медведев и президент США Барак Обама подписали одно из важнейших соглашений по ядерному оружию в современной истории — договор о сокращении стратегических наступательных вооружений, который получил название СНВ-III. Тогда это событие вызвало эйфорию в мире — Россия и США не только договорились в несколько раз сократить свой арсенал, способный, по мнению некоторых экспертов, не единожды уничтожить весь земной шар, но и стали называть друг друга «стратегическими партнерами». Однако СНВ-III вскоре может прекратить свое существование. Почему договор стал невыгоден Дональду Трампу и почему Россия не может пойти на уступки Америке, «Ленте.ру» рассказал ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук Владимир Козин.

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«Лента.ру»: Какое место занимает договор СНВ-III в системе двусторонних договоров между СССР (а затем Россией) и США об ограничениях стратегических ядерных сил?

Владимир Козин: Договор СНВ-III или Пражский договор 2010 года по-прежнему занимает одно из важнейших мест в сфере контроля над ядерными вооружениями. Его наличие позволило двум сторонам опуститься до уровня 1550 стратегических ядерных боезарядов и до 800 оперативно развернутых и неразвернутых носителей таких зарядов, которые имеет традиционная стратегическая ядерная триада. Но, как известно, его действие (если оно не будет продлено) должно закончиться 5 февраля 2021 года.

- Договор СНВ-III продолжает собой СНВ-I, а не СНВ-II, который подписали в январе 1993 года. Почему второй договор ушел в историю раньше срока?

- Договор СНВ-II позволил сократить свои стратегические наступательные вооружения до уровня трех тысяч ядерных боезарядов для каждой стороны. Он также заблокировал использование межконтинентальных баллистических ракет с разделяющимися головными частями индивидуального наведения. Но когда США в одностороннем порядке денонсировали Договор по ПРО 1972 года, то Россия вышла из Договора СНВ-II.

- То есть той же «Сатаны» мы бы лишились совсем…

- Да, я считаю, в этом вопросе с нашей стороны было дано неаккуратное согласие, поскольку американцы мало что предложили взамен. Наоборот, они продолжали модернизацию своих стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений.

Раз договор не был ратифицирован одной стороной, то, фактически, он не предусматривал никаких ограничений и для другой, то есть для нашей страны. Ну, а на нет и суда нет, как говорят.

Поэтому в 2002 году был заключен Договор о сокращении стратегических наступательных потенциалов (СНП), другое его название — Московский договор. Однако он не вводил ограничений по носителям. А в 2010 году появился СНВ-III, который, как я уже сказал, ограничивал количество и ядерных стратегических боезарядов, и их носителей.

- Какими подошли Россия и США к моменту начала переговоров по СНВ-III? Можете припомнить, какая атмосфера царила в отношениях между странами в этой сфере?

- Чтобы проиллюстрировать, какая царила тогда атмосфера, я хочу привести в пример вот какой эпизод. В 2010 году, вскоре после подписания договора СНВ-III, на саммите НАТО в Лиссабоне состоялось заседание Совета Россия — НАТО, где стороны признали друг друга стратегическими партнерами. Это была определенного рода эйфория. Как видите, даже использовался термин «стратегические партнеры», то есть термин, который сейчас американская сторона нигде и никогда относительно Российской Федерации или Китайской Народной Республики не применяет. Мы фигурируем в документах внешней политики США или НАТО только: а) как «агрессор», б) как «аннексор» и в) как «противник», по-английски «adversary». Поэтому на нас навесили такой несправедливый тройной ярлык. Сейчас, конечно, никакого стратегического партнерства между Москвой и Вашингтоном нет.

- А кто был главным инициатором подписания СНВ-III с американской стороны и с нашей?

- Этого никто не скажет. Высшее военно-политическое руководство. А персонально? Те, кто стоял у руля власти. Традиционно, конечно, решения в этой сфере согласовывались и с руководством министерств и ведомств, которые имели отношение к данному вопросу.

Хотел бы заметить, что, несмотря на использование термина «стратегическое партнерство», надо иметь в виду два обстоятельства. Во-первых, в 2002 году американцы в одностороннем порядке, без всяких понятных и здравых объяснений, вышли из Договора по противоракетной обороне 1972 года и дополнительного Протокола к нему, который появился в 1974 году. А в декабре 2009 года тогдашний американский президент Барак Обама во всеуслышание объявил, что американцы начинают развертывание сначала региональной, а потом и глобальной системы ПРО.

Региональная ПРО развертывалась в виде Европейского поэтапного адаптивного подхода. Но сейчас ПРО США не ограничивается только европейским континентом. Есть зона такой обороны в Тихоокеанском регионе, в зоне Персидского залива. Еще раньше она появилась на континентальной территории США. Ее особенность состоит в том, что такой противоракетный «щит» относится к средствам передового базирования, то есть выдвигается к территориям потенциальных «противников». Другая ее особенность заключается в том, что она может выполнять и оборонительные, и наступательные функции.

Так что не так все было просто в отношениях наших стран. Я не совсем понял, почему мы, российская сторона, в 2010 году вдруг согласились на подписание договора СНВ-III, который, по сути, никак не был увязан с развитием американской системы ПРО, а также с сохранением и модернизацией американского тактического ядерного оружия (ТЯО), которое тоже находится в Европе уже почти 70 лет. Это довольно странно.

Американцы никогда не скрывали, что использовали переговорный процесс для выработки выборочных решений в сфере контроля над вооружениями (или селективных, как они их называли). То есть неизменно предлагали сокращать системы вооружений, попадающие под СНВ, но не трогать ПРО и ядерные вооружения тактического назначения.

При возможном продлении договора СНВ-III эти два обстоятельства, иначе говоря, увязку с американской системой ПРО и тактическим ядерным оружием США в Европе и в Азии, где оно может появиться, надо обязательно ставить на первое место наряду с рядом других вопросов, которые реально влияют на стратегическую стабильность и глобальную безопасность.

- Какие это вопросы?

- Помимо ПРО и ТЯО, о чем я уже сказал, необходимо договориться о том, чтобы Вашингтон не нарушал собственно договор СНВ-III. А эти нарушения по-прежнему продолжаются. Например, переоборудование тяжелых стратегических бомбардировщиков под неядерные задачи, которые можно переоборудовать обратно. Для этого достаточно привести в боевую готовность блоки управления ядерным оружием, которые имеются на каждом американском стратегическом бомбардировщике, и загрузить на них ядерное оружие.

Нарушением является то, что американцы имеют больше шахтных пусковых установок под межконтинентальные баллистические ракеты (МБР) наземного базирования. Больше на 50 единиц, чем у них имеется таких наземных МБР. То есть они имеют всего 400 ракет Minuteman III, а шахтных пусковых установок (ШПУ) на континентальной части территории США — на 50 больше.

Другими словами, 50 ШПУ — ложные. И мы не знаем, в какие конкретно ШПУ загружены реальные МБР, а какие из них — пустые. Это позволяет американцам рассредоточить оружие первого или второго ядерного удара на гораздо большей площади. И нам пришлось бы со своей стороны использовать больше ракет, чтобы уничтожить эти пусковые установки.

И наконец, американцы не выполняют очень важное положение, которое содержится в преамбуле договора СНВ-III, — об органической взаимосвязи между стратегическими наступательными ядерными вооружениями и стратегическими оборонительными, то есть противоракетными видами вооружений. Они считают, что преамбула не так важна, как оперативная часть договора. Мол, американцы не обязаны это выполнять. Но это не так. Мы категорически против подобной трактовки. Договор всегда един: что преамбула, что постатейная оперативная часть. Это один и тот же документ, его нельзя делить: это выполняем, а это не выполняем.

США в одностороннем порядке вывели из-под действия договора 56 пусковых установок баллистических ракет подводных лодок Trident-II и 41 тяжелый бомбардировщик B-52H. Это позволяет им сохранить в качестве неучтенных 1200 ядерных боезарядов.

Далее, почему бы не выдвинуть условие американской стороне, если переговоры о продлении или непродлении СНВ-III состоятся, о взаимном неприменении ядерного оружия при первом ударе. Американская сторона категорически отказывается от принятия на себя такого обязательства, и такая точка зрения закреплена в национальной ядерной доктрине, которая называется «Обзор ядерной стратегии».

Говоря простым языком, это ядерная стратегия США, принятая в 2018 году. Там предписано, что США никогда не возьмут на себя обязательство о неприменении ядерного оружия при первом ударе. Но это очень опасная линия.

Также американской стороне нужно сказать, что в упомянутой ядерной стратегии 2018 года есть 14 положений, которые позволяют американцам применять ядерное оружие при первом ударе — как в превентивном, так и упреждающем. Для сравнения, в ядерной стратегии Барака Обамы было всего шесть таких положений. Ну, а если сравнивать с российской ядерной доктриной, у нас были, есть, и, думаю, будут только два основания. Они широко известны (согласно действующей редакции военной доктрины, Россия оставляет за собой право применить ядерное оружие в ответ на применение против нее и (или) ее союзников ядерного и других видов оружия массового поражения, а также в случае агрессии против России с применением обычного оружия, когда под угрозу поставлено само существование государства — прим. «Ленты.ру»).

Также перед Вашингтоном надо более жестко ставить вопрос о том, чтобы он ратифицировал Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний. Россия сделала это в 2000 году, а США по-прежнему уклоняются. И в их действующей ядерной стратегии черным по белому написано, что они не собираются его ратифицировать. Более того, полигону в штате Невада — это объект, где традиционно проводятся испытания ядерных устройств, — предписано быть готовым для возможного возобновления ядерных испытаний. И Национальному управлению по ядерной безопасности США тоже предписано заниматься этим вопросом.

Наконец, американцы не согласились с нашей идеей не развертывать ракеты средней и меньшей дальности в районах, где их нет в настоящее время. Это вооружения, которые ранее попадали под другое соглашение — Договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД). Но российский мораторий они не поддержали.

Более того, есть еще одна опасная вещь, о которой мы мало говорим, и я не понимаю, по какой причине. С марта 2004 года Североатлантический союз начал и до сих пор круглосуточно и круглогодично продолжает операцию ВВС НАТО, которая называется «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» (Baltic Air Policing). Эта операция проводится в воздушном пространстве трех государств Балтии — Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии, а недавно распространилась и на Польшу. Там задействованы самолеты всех трех ядерных держав Запада (США, Великобритании и Франции), которые в том числе могут нести ядерное оружие. И мы не знаем, несут ли их самолеты во время патрулирования неба стран Балтии такое оружие или нет. Проверить это невозможно каким бы то ни было образом.

Ну и тема, которая сейчас стала звучать все больше и больше, это развертывание в космосе ударных космических вооружений, в том числе класса «космос — космос» (это противоспутниковые системы) и класса «космос — поверхность» (это системы противоракетной обороны против баллистических ракет, которые уже начали движение со своих баз).

Короче говоря, остается слишком много таких вопросов. Все они реальные, это не какие-то искусственные увязки. Перед тем как окончательно решить, продлевать или не продлевать договор СНВ-III, нужно получить четкий ответ американской стороны. Если они от всего этого откажутся, то продлевать этот договор для Российской Федерации нет никакого смысла вообще. Тем более, если американская сторона по-прежнему будет настаивать на том, чтобы не только ГПББ «Авангард», не только новая МБР «Сармат», а еще четыре новых, так называемых «экзотических» вида вооружения, — «Кинжал», «Буревестник», «Посейдон» и «Пересвет» — тоже попадали бы под ограничения договора СНВ-III, в котором нет положений, распространяющихся на эти «экзотические» виды вооружений. Их кто-то назвал термином «великолепная шестерка».

 «За объявление идеи безъядерного мира Обама получил Нобелевку»

- Одним из инициаторов заключения договора СНВ-III был тогдашний президент США Барак Обама, который занимался вопросами ядерного разоружения еще до своего избрания главой государства. Как вы думаете, не было ли это соглашение для него, прежде всего, имиджевым проектом?

- Нет, какой же это имиджевый проект, если мы его подписали и успешно ратифицировали! Но надо иметь в виду, что еще до того, как он стал президентом, и после того, как он утвердился на этом посту, его советнический аппарат отстаивал идею глобальной ликвидации ядерного оружия к какому-то сроку. Но впоследствии американское военно-политическое руководство пришло к мнению, что безъядерный мир — это весьма отдаленная идея.

Барак Обама, уже будучи президентом, во время посещения Праги в апреле 2010 года оговорился, что он не настолько наивен, чтобы предположить, что идея безъядерного мира воплотится при его жизни. А некоторое время спустя государственный секретарь США Хиллари Клинтон, выступая на публичной лекции в Вашингтоне, заявила, что идея безъядерного мира вряд ли будет реализована при жизни уже нескольких поколений американцев.

То есть спохватились, начали активно заниматься двумя вещами: модернизацией стратегических наступательных вооружений, выработкой первых наметок создания принципиально новой стратегической ядерной триады, всех трех ее элементов и глобального развертывания системы противоракетной обороны, которая к тому времени уже могла создаваться и развертываться американцами без всяких ограничений после того, как они разорвали договор по ПРО 1972 года.

А так — первоначальная идея была очень громкая. Только за это, за объявление идеи безъядерного мира, Обама, как мы помним, получил Нобелевскую премию, но потом передал ее на благотворительные нужды. Он видимо понял, что премию должны давать за какие-то конкретные дела, а не за декларации. Кроме того, надо учитывать, что США при Обаме, по сути дела, начали активно заниматься милитаризацией космоса и разработкой гиперзвуковых высокоточных систем, но потом несколько отстали от нас в последней сфере.

- Вы упоминали, что вам не очень ясна логика нашего руководства, которое заключило СНВ-III, не увязав его с рядом других аспектов. Можете порассуждать, почему так сложилось? Почему тогдашний президент Дмитрий Медведев заключил именно такой договор?

- Порассуждать можно, хотя открытых, откровенных заявлений о том, почему так произошло, я до сих пор не увидел. Ни тогда, ни сейчас. Я считаю, что это было не совсем правильное решение, потому что селективный или выборочный подход к проблеме контроля над вооружениями может притормаживать гонку вооружений на каких-то определенных участках, например, на ракетно-ядерном направлении, но одновременно позволяет другой стороне интенсивно двигаться в развитии других систем, как выяснилось. И противоракетной обороны, и в космосе, которые не имеют никаких ограничителей. И так далее.

Чем это можно объяснить? Может быть, желанием показать всему миру, что процесс сокращения ядерных вооружений продолжается, что идет постепенное снижение их числа. В договоре СНВ-I максимальный потолок для каждой стороны был 6000 боезарядов, а потом, в договоре СНВ-III, он опустился примерно до 1,5 тысячи зарядов.

А значит, видимо, и Вашингтон, и Москва исходили из того, что нет никакой необходимости держать такое огромное количество боезарядов только в области стратегических наступательных вооружений, что можно было неоднократно взорвать земной шар.

Не был выработан алгоритм нахождения разумного минимального предела, ниже которого опускаться было бы опасно, и выше которого было бы нецелесообразно производить избыточное количество ядерных боезарядов, которые со временем устаревают, нуждаются в обслуживании и замене.

Но, поскольку с американцами ракетно-ядерные проблемы решаются с большим скрипом, особенно при нынешней республиканской администрации Трампа, я не уверен, что встреча пяти ядерных держав, постоянных членов Совета Безопасности ООН, в рамках Генеральной Ассамблеи в сентябре этого года поможет разрешить все эти вопросы. Их порядка дюжины, но все они очень важные.

Почему у меня такое пессимистическое настроение? Пока я не увидел никаких позитивных шагов в этом направлении со стороны США. Даже просто заявления Трампа нет по этому вопросу. До сих пор он тянет резину, и это неслучайно. Он хочет для себя путем такой тянучки еще до всяких переговоров соответствующего характера выторговать у нас уступки по новым системам из «великолепной шестерки», новым МБР и так далее.

Главная цель американской стороны, сделавшей упор на увязке новых российских перспективных систем вооружений с Пражским договором, заключается в том, чтобы с помощью словесных ухищрений и искусственных увязок лишить Россию возможности создания и развертывания таких систем вооружений, по которым у США либо имеется серьезное отставание, либо тех, что у них отсутствуют, и таким образом лишить ее явного перспективного стратегического преимущества.

Хотя из «великолепной шестерки» только МБР «Сармат» могла бы попадать под ограничения договора СНВ-III. Но ракеты, которые испытываются, не производятся в массовом порядке и еще не приняты на вооружение, не могут считаться попадающими под ограничения этого договора. Я думаю, что до окончания срока действия СНВ-III «Сармат» еще не будет принят на вооружение в российские ракетные войска стратегического назначения.

 -А кто больше выиграл от договора СНВ-III?

- Американцы считают, что больше выиграли мы, российская сторона. А они, мол, проиграли. Однако я считаю недостатком договора для нас, что не включили в постатейную часть формулировки об органической взаимосвязи между стратегическими наступательными ядерными вооружениями и стратегическими оборонительными системами вооружений. Это надо было закрепить в какой-то отдельной статье. И не просто в виде «взаимосвязи», а в виде предметных ограничений систем ПРО передового базирования.

Еще одним недостатком этого документа является то, что американская стратегическая тяжелая авиация по сути освоила воздушное пространство над Европой и Азиатско-Тихоокеанским регионом. На эти действия не были введены никакие ограничения. А ведь такие самолеты могут нести ядерное оружие — и вблизи Северной Кореи, и вблизи Калининградской области. Стратегическая тяжелая авиация США, а конкретно B-52H, уже неоднократно летала над Балтийским морем, над Черным морем и проводила условные бомбометания с использованием учебных ядерных боезарядов. В октябре прошлого года один из таких самолетов B-52H сбросил учебную ядерную авиабомбу на литовский полигон всего в 60 километрах от Калининградской области. Что это такое? Зачем это нужно? Мы не занимаемся такими бомбометаниями в государствах X или Y, территория которых примыкает к континентальной части США. В договоре надо было как-то прописать такую сдержанность применительно к тяжелой стратегической авиации сторон. Но пока это остается без ограничений.

С другой стороны, американцам нельзя было давать большие инспекционные права на мониторинг российских мобильных МБР.

Ну, и количество шахтных пусковых установок должно точно соответствовать количеству МБР наземного базирования. И нельзя, скажем, переоборудовать баллистические ракеты подводных лодок под установку неядерных боезарядов на них, потому что это невозможно верифицировать другой стороне, инспекционным группам. Или устанавливать на них заряды малой мощности — в 5 килотонн и ниже. Таким образом, существует очень много вопросов.

В итоге соответствующих переговоров о продлении договора СНВ-III мы не ведем, но ведем консультации по вопросам стратегической стабильности. Но, во-первых, их было очень мало. К тому же на консультациях по вопросам стратегической стабильности не принимаются ключевые решения. Это только площадки для обмена мнениями для выяснения каких-то вопросов. Там не создаются проекты соглашений, допустим, договора СНВ-IV. Американцы, например, пытаются рассуждать о том, чтобы какая-то будущая договоренность в рамках СНВ-IV касалась тактических ядерных вооружений. Причем и КНР, и России, и США. Но Вашингтон ничего по этой проблематике не конкретизирует. Вероятно, хочет оставить свои ТЯО в Европе.

Допустим, при обсуждении этой темы — ТЯО — американцы, что, — собираются оставить свои ядерные вооружения в Европе, которые находятся уже почти 70 лет на территории четырех государств континента? А ведь скоро появится модернизированный вариант ядерной бомбы B61-12 — более точной и корректируемой, которая будет сбрасываться не на парашюте.

В общем, вопросов очень много, и, повторюсь, никакого движения навстречу со стороны США нет, и Трамп до сих пор по ним не высказался. Но по санкциям и разным гадостям в адрес России — неоднократно. Высказывания министра обороны и госсекретаря по контролю над ядерными вооружениями носят завуалированный характер, а по космическим, противоракетным и гиперзвуковым системам — довольно агрессивный.

«Трамп дал указание спрогнозировать, как поведут себя Россия и Китай, если США выйдут из СНВ-III»

- А дальше что будет?

- Лично у меня есть предположение, что американцы откажутся от продления СНВ-III и объявят об этом в этом году или в начале следующего. Произойдет это, как мне кажется, по двум причинам. Во-первых, как мы помним, американцы, в одностороннем порядке вышли из ДРСМД. Они тогда попытались увязать с этим договором ракеты средней и меньшей дальности КНР. Китай отказался. А раз так, заявили американцы, нам нет смысла оставаться в этом договоре. И вышли. Сейчас ими выдвигается точно такое же предварительное условие: Китай должен присоединиться к сокращению СНВ и ТЯО Россией и США. Но Пекин уже заявил, что не будет участвовать в этом тройственном переговорном процессе по одной простой причине — его СНВ и ТЯО гораздо меньше в количественном соотношении, чем у американцев. То есть в США появится искусственная увязка с отказом КНР участвовать в этом процессе. Сошлются на его несговорчивость и выйдут из этого договорного акта.

Второй признак — и, на мой взгляд, очень существенный — заключается вот в чем. Трамп дал Государственному департаменту США, Министерству обороны, а также ведомству, которое объединяет 17 различных разведывательных организаций, указание спрогнозировать, как поведут себя Россия и Китай, если США выйдут из СНВ-III. Это значит, что они уже думают о возможности выхода из договора, раз ставят такие задачи перед этим триумвиратом.

В целом на сегодняшний день воз и ныне там. Да, ситуация сложная, но не трагическая. Я бы не падал в обморок, даже если договор СНВ-III не будет продлен американской стороной в феврале 2021 года.

- Почему?

- Первая причина: если договор продолжит свое действие еще на пять лет, до 2026 года, это будет означать, что Россия, чтобы оставаться в установленных этим соглашением лимитах, должна будет либо ликвидировать еще действующие системы СНВ прежних проектов, которые давно находятся у нас на вооружении, но еще являются вполне эффективными, либо не принимать на вооружение новые системы, которыми надо будет заменять более ранние образцы.

Вторая причина: неучастие России в договоре СНВ-III или СНВ-IV будет неправильным, поскольку американцы не захотят, чтобы их ядерные союзники Великобритания и Франция участвовали в переговорном процессе с Россией и США. Две эти страны-участницы НАТО готовы пообсуждать эту тему в кулуарах Генассамблеи ООН в сентябре. Но только обсуждать. Обама вскоре после того, как стал президентом, тоже проводил такие обсуждения — даже в Совете Безопасности ООН, и тоже со всей ядерной пятеркой. Но тогда ни о чем не договорились: слишком резкими были разногласия и диаметрально противоположными позиции сторон.

Поэтому, если американцы будут говорить, что под действие СНВ-III должны попадать не только «Авангард» и «Сармат», но и все остальные системы из «великолепной шестерки», даже боевой лазер «Пересвет», как заявляет министр обороны США Марк Эспер, то зачем же нам нужен такой ограничивающий нас договор? Это нецелесообразно.

Возникает вопрос, зачем нам добровольно отказываться от этих прекрасных видов вооружения, которые не имеют аналогов в мире, — только ради того, чтобы американцы остались в договоре СНВ-III? Это их дело, они могут выйти из него в любой момент, и, соответственно, мы будем свободны в обеспечении своей обороноспособности. То есть нельзя автоматически продлевать СНВ-III. Это, я считаю, должно быть нашей железобетонной позицией. Можно обсуждать только условия, но никак не само автоматическое продление.

А условий много, я о них уже говорил, и все они важные, абсолютно все. Взять то же тактическое ядерное оружие: Польша закупает 32 многоцелевых истребителя-бомбардировщика F-35A. Это сертифицированный носитель ядерного оружия США. А зачем Польша закупает носитель ядерного оружия? Однажды бывший польский министр обороны прямым текстом заявил, что Варшава хочет, чтобы США разместили свое ядерное оружие на территории Польской республики, как на территории Германии, Бельгии, Нидерландов, Италии и азиатской части Турции.

Но надо иметь в виду, что есть противоракетный комплекс в Редзиково в Польше, который все еще достраивается. Его строительство затянулось, но он будет достроен, американцы к этому стремятся и выделили на это дополнительные деньги. Еще есть комплекс ПРО США в Девеселу в Румынии. Каждый из этих объектов имеет по 24 пусковые установки, в которые могут загружаться три вида ракет: собственно ракеты-перехватчики системы ПРО, крылатые ракеты наземного базирования, в том числе ядерные ракеты средней дальности, а также новые американские гиперзвуковые системы, которые сейчас только разрабатываются. В настоящее время в США имеется около десяти различных проектов такого рода для всех четырех видов вооруженных сил: для сухопутных войск, ВМС, ВВС и стратегических ядерных сил США.

То есть эти шахты универсальные. Там ничего не надо менять, их диаметр подходит под любые виды ракет. Программное обеспечение разработано, алгоритм есть, потому что на американских кораблях системы Aegis используются точно такие же установки, они уже давно стоят на вооружении, и туда можно загружать четыре вида ракет в зависимости от ситуации в регионе и в мире. И противокорабельные, и противолодочные, и противовоздушные, и для противоракетной обороны. Никаких особых переделок при этом не требуется, шахта одна и та же. Aegis наземного базирования в Румынии и Польше — это точно такая же корабельная установка, которая просто частично трансформирована и перенесена на сушу.

Поэтому вести дела с Трампом в сфере контроля над вооружениями очень трудно. Все его пять общенациональных стратегий носят откровенно наступательный характер и ориентированы против России и КНР. Я имею в виду стратегию национальной безопасности, стратегию национальной обороны, стратегию противоракетной обороны, космическую стратегию и ядерную стратегию США. И для того, чтобы пойти на какие-то конструктивные шаги или достижение компромисса с Россией или с КНР, им надо переписать заново всю эту пятерку ключевых стратегий федерального значения. Например, оказаться от установок: «запуск по предупреждению» (о ракетном нападении) и «запуск до запуска» (запуск своих ракетных систем до их запуска противником). Перечеркнуть установку «эскалация для деэкскалации». Отменить соглашения о совместных ядерных миссиях с союзниками по НАТО.

Но это так просто не делается. Для этого нужно провести соответствующую обработку населения, повлиять на оппозицию в лице Демократической партии, создать определенный настрой, что подобный шаг представляется для Америки важным и нужным. Иначе Трампа никто не переизберет на второй срок, если он пойдет навстречу задаче укрепления глобальной безопасности и снижению роли ядерного оружия в мировой политике только в рамках своего единоличного президентского решения.

Мне представляется, что если совещание пятерки ядерных держав по этому вопросу «на полях» Генассамблеи ООН в сентябре этого года все же состоится, а практические решения на нем приняты не будут, то России нужно просто напрямую обратиться к мировому сообществу, рассказать о нерешенных проблемах, показать реальную опасность, которая существует, и сказать: пожалуйста, решайте, что делать в такой ситуации. А также заявить, что мы не можем уговорить своих западных визави по поводу достижения продуктивной договоренности о ядерной сдержанности. Не о ядерном сдерживании, а именно договоренности о ядерной сдержанности.

Возьмем, например, ядерную стратегию США. Ее можно охарактеризовать всего четырьмя словами: безусловное наступательное ядерное сдерживание. А у нас с КНР — в этом наши стратегии практически одинаковые — в основе лежит условное оборонительное ядерное сдерживание. «Условное» здесь означает: «если на нас нападут». «Оборонительное» означает отказ от первого ядерного удара. Некоторые считают, что этому противоречит вторая часть нашей ядерной доктрины — если будет совершено нападение на территорию РФ с применением обычных видов вооружений, когда под угрозу будет поставлено само существование нашего государства. Но все равно здесь используется слово «если». То есть не будет подобной «неядерной» агрессии — не будет никакого ядерного удара.

- Может, надо что-то большее западным странам предложить с нашей стороны?

- В дипломатии, в особенности разоруженческой, никогда заранее нельзя объявлять, на что мы можем пойти. Это как в торговле: если вы, как продавец товара, на базаре первым предложите покупателю самую минимальную цену за свой товар, то он всегда согласится с этим и никогда не предложит вам более высокую плату за свою покупку. Поэтому надо делать так, как однажды Иосиф Сталин говорил Вячеславу Молотову: «Просите больше, а там посмотрим».

А у нас некоторые даже в МИДе заявляют, что «Сармат» и «Авангард» попадают под ограничения Договора СНВ-III. В недавнем интервью журналу «Arms Control Today» посол России в США Анатолий Антонов заявил следующее: «Мы открыты для дискуссий в рамках стратегического диалога о новейших и перспективных вооружениях, которые не попадают под Договор СНВ-III. Вместе с тем обсуждение этой темы должно вестись комплексно — с учетом интересов обеих сторон».

Это неправильно, ведь Трамп до сих пор вообще ничего не сказал по этому поводу. И я не уверен, что он когда-то нам предложит что-то вроде: «Я готов сократить свою самую лучшую гиперзвуковую программу, а также не принимать на вооружение принципиально новую МБР Minuteman IV только для того, чтобы вы согласились продлить договор СНВ-III». Думаю, что американцы так никогда не скажут.

Заметно, что российская сторона сейчас немного снизила свою активность с целью чрезмерно настойчивого «приглашения» США к диалогу и перестала высказываться на эту тему. Ждем, когда Трамп выскажется по ней. Это правильно, надо подождать, когда выскажется именно он как глава государства и верховный главнокомандующий, и только тогда мы сможем «разобрать по косточкам» его заявление. И только тогда мы сможем что-то дальше предпринимать и как-то прореагировать. Но системы вооружений, в которых мы сильны в технологическом плане, нельзя сдавать ни за какие коврижки, а тем более пока за пустоту с другой стороны.

Кстати, тот же Трамп показал практический пример. Однажды он заявил, что не собирается обсуждать вопросы противоракетной обороны с Российской Федерацией и готов это делать только со своими прямыми союзниками по НАТО. И нам надо сказать, что пока мы находимся впереди в области гиперзвука и других перспективных систем вооружений, мы не собираемся обсуждать вопросы сокращения этих систем ни с кем. Вот когда догоните нас, когда учтете все наши реальные озабоченности в сфере контроля над вооружениями, в особенности ядерными, противоракетными и ударными космическими видами вооружений, тогда и посмотрим, что с ними делать.

Беседовал Игорь Дмитров, Источник: Lenta.ru

«В Евросоюзе поставлены под сомнение все те принципы, на которых он создавался»

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "ОТРажение" на канале ОТР.


В.П. Козин: В заявлении от 24 февраля не были указаны конкретные конечные сроки или географические рамки завершения военной спецоперации. Военная машина Украины должна быть уничтожена. Вот главное.

 


Эфир от 6 мая 2022г.

Источник: Общественное телевидение России

 

«Взрывают» очередной договор

В Пентагоне заявили о готовности провести ядерное испытание в течение нескольких месяцев.

Вашингтон может возобновить ядерные испытания, от проведения которых он воздерживался почти 28 лет. Свидетельством тому стало закрытое совещание высокопоставленных представителей «высших органов национальной безопасности» США, которое, по информации газеты «Вашингтон пост», состоялось 15 мая и на котором обсуждалась тема возобновления ядерных испытаний на полигоне в штате Невада.

Последний подземный взрыв ядерного устройства на этом полигоне Соединённые Штаты провели в сентябре 1992 года. С тех пор состояние американского ядерного потенциала проверялось с помощью системы специальных тестов с использованием возможностей компьютерной техники. Она, по словам директора по исследованиям оборонной политики американского института Катона Эрика Гомеса, которые приводятся на американском сайте Defence news, весьма совершенна и, по утверждению американцев, даже по ряду параметров превосходит аналогичные системы России и Китая.

Однако этого сегодня уже недостаточно тем американским кругам, которые вознамерились переформатировать мировой порядок. Именно на это нацелен ряд шагов, которые сделала нынешняя республиканская администрация.

Среди новых стратегических установок выделяется стремление обновить ядерный арсенал США. Предлагается «вскрыть» невадский ядерный полигон с целью возобновления на нём испытаний ядерных взрывных устройств. Ими будут оснащаться боезаряды нового поколения, которые планируется устанавливать на носители полностью обновляемой стратегической ядерной триады, к созданию которой американская сторона уже приступила.

Об этом написано, как говорится, чёрным по белому, в открытой части стратегии, названной «Обзор ядерной политики Соединённых Штатов Америки» и обнародованной в 2018 году. В частности, в ней подчёркнуто, что «Соединённые Штаты должны сохранять готовность к возобновлению ядерных испытаний в случае необходимости с целью ответа на сильные технологические или геополитические вызовы».

Национальному управлению ядерной безопасности при министерстве энергетики США, которое в пределах своих полномочий отвечает за разработку, производство, безопасность и надёжность ядерного оружия, поручено выполнить необходимые подготовительные работы на полигоне в штате Невада и провести ядерные испытания, «если об этом будет принято соответствующее решение».

Что касается решения, то оно на упоминавшемся выше заседании пока не принято – обсуждение вопроса о возобновлении ядерных испытаний будет продолжено. Однако в Пентагоне уже заявили, что испытания могут быть проведены в течение нескольких месяцев, если поступит соответствующее распоряжение президента.

Как отметил исполняющий обязанности помощника главы военного ведомства США по ядерным вопросам Дрю Уолтер, хотя невадский полигон законсервирован, национальное управление ядерной безопасности сохраняет возможность возобновить проведение испытаний в определённые сроки. Управление, сообщил он, располагает специально оборудованным шахтным стволом на невадском полигоне, который предназначен для проведения такого экстренного испытания.

А пока подготовка к этим «экспериментам» стала обеспечиваться традиционным масштабным дезинформационным прикрытием. Американская пропагандистская машина уже несколько месяцев продолжает «наводить тень на плетень», пытаясь голословно обвинить Россию и КНР. Подобные обвинения были отражены в очередном годовом докладе государственного департамента США о выполнении соглашений в сфере контроля над вооружениями, который был выпущен в апреле этого года.

Естественно, что никаких доказательств в поддержку такого заявления Вашингтон не предъявил.

Не подтвердили эту американскую сказку и сейсмологические станции, имеющиеся во многих государствах мира. А Москва и Пекин с понятным возмущением опровергли очередные американские измышления.

Своего рода прикрытием истинных намерений Вашингтона следует считать и высказываемые за океаном предположения, что Белый дом хотел бы с помощью проведения новых ядерных испытаний подтолкнуть Пекин стать участником каких-то будущих переговоров по сокращению ядерных вооружений с участием США, России и Китая.

Как известно, в Пекине решительно отказываются от участия в подобного рода переговорах, указывая, что существует пятикратный дисбаланс между ядерными арсеналами США и КНР в пользу первых. Также отмечается, что своими разговорами о проведении взрывов на невадском полигоне американская сторона рассчитывает обеспечить себе благоприятную позицию на этих переговорах.

Тем временем приготовления к возобновлению ядерных испытаний в США вызвали критическую реакцию в различных странах мира, в том числе и в американском экспертном сообществе. «Это было бы приглашение другим странам, обладающим ядерным оружием, последовать примеру США», – заявил, например, исполнительный директор некоммерческой американской ассоциации по контролю над вооружениями Дэрил Кимбалл. По его мнению, такой шаг стал бы «началом беспрецедентной гонки ядерных вооружений».

Совершенно очевидно, что возобновление ядерных испытаний Вашингтоном взорвёт Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний (ДВЗЯИ). Он был принят в 1996 году и пользуется значительной поддержкой в мире (подписан 184 и ратифицирован 168 странами). Однако документ вступит в силу только после его ратификации всеми 44 поимённо названными государствами-участниками, в том числе и Соединёнными Штатами. США же его до сих пор не ратифицировали. Россия ратифицировала ДВЗЯИ в 2000 году.

Отказ Вашингтона от ратификации ДВЗЯИ – даже если США не станут проводить ядерные испытания – подтверждает стремление этой сверхдержавы до основания разрушить систему контроля над вооружениями. В 2002 году США вышли из Договора по ПРО, в 2018 году – из «иранской ядерной сделки», в 2019 году – из Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, а в мае этого года объявили о готовности денонсировать Договор об открытом небе.

Пока неясной остаётся судьба Договора о стратегических наступательных вооружениях (СНВ-3), который прекратит своё действие в феврале 2021 года, если не будет продлён ещё на пять лет. Американская сторона делает противоречивые заявления по этому поводу.

Есть ещё Соглашение о предотвращении инцидентов в открытом море за внешним пределом территориальных вод и в воздушном пространстве над ним, которое Вашингтон не желает распространить на подводные лодки, находящиеся в подводном положении, в том числе и на ядерные.

Таковы реалии, которые не могут не учитывать и в Москве, и в Пекине.

Автор: Владимир Козин, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук.

Источник: “Красная звезда”

«Глобальный ядерный ноль» к 2045 году?

Что по этому поводу думают общественные движения?

24 августа этого года десятки американских и европейских некоммерческих миротворческих и антиядерных движений и организаций открыли для подписания подготовленное «Обращение к президентам, премьер-министрам и законодателям девяти ядерных государств», которое содержит адресованный им призыв принять три конкретных шага в области ядерного разоружения не позднее декабря 2020 года.

Этим лидерам предлагается взять на себя обязательство не применять и отказаться от применения какого-либо вида ядерного оружия в первом ударе по любой стране мира и в любое время - в качестве первоначального шага, «ведущего к всеобъемлющему и необратимому ядерному разоружению в глобальном масштабе».

Одновременно к «ядерной девятке» обращена просьба подписать и ратифицировать международный Договор о запрещении ядерного оружия, открытый для подписания в 2017 году, с последующим обязательством всех девяти ядерных государств заявить о приверженности необратимого демонтажа всего ядерного оружия к 6 августа 2045 года или ранее этой даты всеми девятью государствами, обладающими ядерным оружием. Дело в том, что названный договор имеет существенный недостаток: он не определяет никакого крайнего срока полного и повсеместного уничтожения ядерного оружия в мире.

Десятки американских и европейских некоммерческих миротворческих и антиядерных движений и организаций обратились к девяти ядерным государствам демонтировать к 6 августа 2045 года всё ядерное оружие.

Всем девяти ядерным государствам также предлагается выйти на данную или более раннюю дату в ходе тщательно определённых этапов сокращения ядерных арсеналов и «с помощью хорошо разработанного и взаимоприемлемого механизма инспекций», а также при условии, что все государства, обладающие ядерным оружием, будут следовать этой линии одновременно и самым честным образом.

Предлагавшийся более ранний срок выхода на «глобальный ядерный ноль» к 6 августа 2030 года был отвергнут спонсорами этой инициативы из-за невозможности его практической реализации в ближайшее десятилетие. Пояснялось, что ликвидация ядерного оружия и средств его доставки, а также полный демонтаж всей научно-экспериментальной и промышленной базы для их создания и обслуживания потребовали бы использование значительных людских и финансово-экономических ресурсов в течение более длительного периода времени, чем десять лет, то есть в 2020-2030 годы.

Объявление 6 августа 2045 года крайним сроком сохранения ядерного оружия на планете имело бы также глубокое морально-политическое значение. Ведь эта дата является трагической для всего человечества, поскольку именно тогда ядерное оружие было впервые применено Соединёнными Штатами против мирной Хиросимы, а три дня спустя - против Нагасаки.

Представляется, что провозглашение такой даты произвело бы положительное, а не негативное воздействие на Соединённые Штаты, которые значительно нарастили основания - до 14 оснований, что является рекордным - для использования своего национального ядерного оружия и до сих пор имеют в своих доктринальных установках положения о его применении в первом ударе.

В этом контексте свою конструктивную роль может также сыграть и всемирный консенсус по поводу морального запрета на развязывание тотальной или даже ограниченной ядерной войны с использованием понятной для всех максимы: «Трагедия Хиросимы никогда не должна повториться».

Свою позицию зарубежные некоммерческие движения и организации мотивируют именно угрозой развязывания ядерной войны, которая может легко разразиться либо в результате преднамеренных действий любых государств, обладающих ядерным оружием, либо из-за непреднамеренных человеческих, технических или любых других ошибок.

Обращается внимание на то, что в последнее время порог применения ядерного оружия в результате ограниченных или крупномасштабных ударов значительно снизился, по этой причине весь мир оказался на грани ядерного Армагеддона. Многие высокопоставленные военные и гражданские должностные лица, политики и эксперты открыто говорят о возможности использования ядерного оружия в первом ядерном ударе по любой стране мира под многими предлогами и с использованием ядерных боезарядов малой или значительной мощности.

В документе в негативном ключе содержится напоминание, что США по сомнительным причинам и с нелогичными разъяснениями фактически вышли из целого ряда известных и полезных договоров и соглашений по контролю над ядерными вооружениями.

Отмечается, что средства доставки ядерного оружия становятся всё более изощрёнными, скоростными и точными. Они объединены в опасное сочетание вооружений, охватывающих стратегическое и тактическое ядерное оружие с средствами противоракетной обороны и обычными видами вооружений, а также с возможностями размещения в космическом пространстве ударного оружия, в том числе противоракетных и противоспутниковых систем.Многие военные учения с применением обычных видов вооружений постепенно трансформируются в учения с условным применением ядерного оружия.

Указывается, что многие военные учения, которые ранее проводились с применением обычных видов вооружений, постепенно трансформируются в учения с условным применением ядерного оружия.

Представляется целесообразным поддержать этот призыв зарубежных некоммерческих движений и организаций на том основании, что подобная инициатива вносит конкретный вклад в решение проблемы укрепления контроля над ядерными вооружениями и режима ядерного нераспространения, а также даст импульс международному антиядерному движению, которое в последние годы активизировало свою деятельность по предотвращению угрозы ядерной войны любого масштаба и с пониманием относится к российским акциям в этом направлении.

Одновременно можно было бы усилить данное обращение призывом ко всем государствам, обладающим ядерным потенциалом, к какому-то сроку одномоментно перейти на «оборонительное неядерное сдерживание, которое никому не угрожает».

Такая реакция России на распространяемое воззвание произвела бы более глубокий эффект в мире, чем известное схожее предложение о глобальном уничтожении ядерного оружия, выдвинутое 34 года назад Советским Союзом.

Несомненно, что такая реакция повысила бы престиж России на международной арене. Она также укрепила бы и авторитет всех других ядерных государств, если они поддержат призыв международной общественности повсеместно и необратимо ликвидировать ядерное оружие к обозначенному сроку или ранее его на взаимной основе.

Автор: Владимир Козин. Источник: Еженедельник "Звезда"

«Динамика гибридных войн текущего столетия»

25 марта В.П. Козин принял участие в международных теледебатах, организованный Национальным институтом политических исследований (Исламабад) на тему: «Динамика гибридных войн текущего столетия» (45 участников).

В своем выступлении ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО обратил внимание участников мероприятия на то, что США и НАТО постоянно модифицируют способы и методы ведения гибридных войн, которые они не собираются прекращать.

Также В.П. Козин изложил заявление советника министра обороны России о «ментальных войнах», которые ведут страны Запада; им было отмечено, что поскольку в международном праве нет никаких ограничений на ведение гибридных войн, то государства, которые испытывают на себе такие войны, имеют полное право в соответствии со статьей 51 Устава ООН отвечать теми же средствами, что и государства-инициаторы таких акций. Также эксперт подчеркнул, что гибридные войны, ведущиеся США и НАТО,  не должны быть «улицей с односторонним движением», им всегда следует давать адекватный ответ.

«Железный купол» Америки

Военно-промышленный комплекс Соединённых Штатов продвигает проект модернизации национальной системы ПРО

С возвращением в Белый дом Дональда Трампа не проходит и дня, чтобы США не заставили обратить внимание на свои крупномасштабные военные проекты. Свидетельством тому служат и планы американского президента о создании расширенной архитектуры противоракетной обороны, которая должна превзойти всё, что оставили ему в названной сфере его предшественники. Что представляют собой такие замыслы и к чему может привести стремление Вашингтона реализовать их? Этой теме посвящено интервью, которое дал «Красной звезде» известный политолог, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир КОЗИН, автор монографий «Эволюция противоракетной обороны США и позиция России» (2013),«Космические силы США: их ключевые задачи и будущие потенциалы» (2022).

– Владимир Петрович, Дональд Трамп вознамерился развернуть над Соединёнными Штатами «купол». Причём «железный», как он его назвал…

– Да, указ о создании противоракетной обороны следующего поколения под названием «Железный купол для Америки» Дональд Трамп подписал 27 января этого года. Такое решение было ожидаемым, поскольку Трамп в ходе предвыборной кампании не раз указывал на необходимость создания именно такой системы. О необходимости её развёртывания говорилось и в предвыборной платформе Республиканской партии, одобренной в июле прошлого года. В своём указе Трамп дал поручение министру обороны Питу Хегсету в течение ближайших 60 дней представить подробную архитектуру такого противоракетного «купола» и определить его ключевые функциональные задачи.

– Такое же название, как известно, имеет и система ПРО Израиля, созданная на 75 процентов с помощью Пентагона. В этой связи возникает вопрос: чем американская система будет отличаться от израильской, или она станет её копией?

– Хотя речь идёт об идентичном названии проектов, американский вариант предусматривает более значительные военно-технические параметры, чем израильский «Железный купол». США ставят задачу создать гораздо более разветвлённую и усиленную систему ПРО. Прежде всего предполагаемый американский противоракетный «щит» будет иметь значительно более широкую пространственную зону прикрытия, чем израильский «купол». Площадь США, отмечу, в 440 раз больше территории Израиля.

Трамп обозначил задачу сенсорного обнаружения баллистических ракет, летящих по баллистической прямой или маневрирующей траектории, гиперзвуковых и усовершенствованных крылатых ракет, а также других средств воздушного нападения следующего поколения со стороны различных противников.

Такая будущая американская система ракетного перехвата не может быть ограничена только квалификацией «глобальная система ПРО наземного и морского базирования» или только «космического базирования». Это будет комбинированная система ПРО США глобально-космического базирования. У Израиля такой системы, естественно, нет.

– На какие особенности январского указа Трампа вы обратили бы особое внимание?

– Прежде всего следует отметить, что в нём указано наличие внешней «катастрофической ракетной угрозы» для Соединённых Штатов. И этим обосновывается создание мощной системы ПРО. Как отмечается в указе, перед США стоит задача развития и запуска глобально-космической противоракетной системы страны, для чего потребуется ускоренное развёртывание группировки новых космических сенсоров с эффективными средствами обнаружения, позволяющих отслеживать баллистические и гиперзвуковые маневрирующие ракеты и их боевые блоки; разработка и развёртывание многочисленных космических перехватчиков, способных осуществлять перехват на активном участке траектории ракет; создание возможностей для их перехвата на участках снижения и конечном этапе полёта боевых блоков.

В указе также говорится о разработке и развёртывании некинетических средств для усиления потенциала кинетического поражения баллистических, гиперзвуковых, усовершенствованных крылатых ракет и других средств воздушного нападения следующего поколения. Трамп одновременно обещал увеличить и ускорить предоставление возможностей противоракетной обороны Соединённых Штатов союзникам и партнёрам.

Пентагон уже обратился к военно-промышленному комплексу с призывом в срочном порядке подготовить план финансирования создания этой системы, чтобы у президента США было достаточно времени на его рассмотрение и включение этих расходов в федеральный бюджет на 2026 финансовый год.

– Можно ли предположить, насколько дорогостоящим может оказаться данный проект?

– В этом президентском указе нет никаких деталей на этот счёт. Предположения же американских гражданских и военных экспертов разнятся. «Затраты на надёжную защиту территории размером с Соединённые Штаты от широкого спектра угроз в нескольких различных точках перехвата были бы астрономическими», – заявил Мэтт Корда, заместитель директора проекта ядерной информации Федерации американских учёных.

По подсчётам Тодда Харрисона из American Enterprise Institute, которые приводит Breaking Defense, стоимость только разработки, создания и запуска первоначальной группировки из 1,9 тысячи перехватчиков космического базирования составит от 11 до 27 миллиардов долларов. Всего же, согласно информационному порталу Defense One, для покрытия всей территории США «Железным куполом» понадобилось бы 24 700 различных систем общей стоимостью 2,47 триллиона долларов. Общие ассигнования на указанные цели могут превысить, оценочно, три триллиона долларов.

– Но ведь у Соединённых Штатов уже есть система противоракетной обороны…

– Да, сегодня она состоит из четырёх видов ударных компонентов наземного и морского базирования стратегического и тактического назначения, а также сенсоров космического базирования. Начата разработка ударных космических вооружений. Основу наземной системы ПРО стратегического назначения для перехвата МБР и БРПЛ на средних участках траектории составляет наземный комплекс, известный как Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GBMD). Он имеет на вооружении 44 противоракеты Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI): 40 таких ракет размещены в шахтах на военной базе Форт-Грили (Аляска) и четыре – на военной базе Ванденберг (Калифорния). Их дальность действия составляет до 6000 км. Этот комплекс включает также РЛС раннего предупреждения и сопровождения, отслеживающие перемещение целей в космическом пространстве. В планах военно-политического руководства довести общее количество указанных ракет-перехватчиков до 104 единиц.

В настоящий момент осуществляется модернизация ракет GBI и их наземной инфраструктуры. Кроме того, компании «Локхид Мартин» и «Нортроп Грумман» работают над созданием противоракеты «нового поколения» (NGI).

Также создана морская боевая информационно-управляющая система ПРО «Иджис», которая в настоящее время установлена на 59 крейсерах и эсминцах ВМС США. К 2030 финансовому году их количество должно достигнуть 69 единиц.

Операционные базы ПРО «Иджис» наземного базирования уже сооружены и начали функционировать с мая 2016 года на базе Девеселу (Румыния) и с ноября 2024 года – на базе близ Редзиково (Польша). На каждой такой противоракетной базе установлены по 24 ракеты-перехватчика, которые могут быть быстро заменены без переделок пусковых установок на наступательный вид вооружений – на крылатые ракеты наземного базирования.

Противоракетные мобильные комплексы представлены системой заатмосферного перехвата ракет на заключительной фазе их полёта (THAAD). Если системы «Иджис» предназначены для ПРО театра военных действий, то на систему THAAD возложены задачи по прикрытию военных баз и стратегических объектов от входящих в атмосферу боевых блоков баллистических ракет меньшей и средней дальности. Возможности комплекса не позволяют ему поражать цели в космическом пространстве.

Объектовой системой ПРО является армейский зенитный ракетный комплекс MIM-104 «Пэтриот», который рассматривается как средство оперативно-тактической противоракетной обороны от баллистических ракет меньшей дальности, как правило, используемых для защиты военных баз и критически важной инфраструктуры.

Иными словами, Соединёнными Штатами уже создана разветвлённая система ПРО, которая продолжает активно развиваться и совершенствоваться.

– А реально ли быстрое создание американского «Железного купола»?

– Не думаю. Некоторые американские аналитики признают, что создание непроницаемого противоракетного щита наземно-морского и космического базирования практически невозможно. Как заявил ведущий эксперт по ракетам в вашингтонском Центре стратегических и международных исследований Том Карако, чьи слова приводит газета «Файнэншл таймс», «волшебной гарантии безопасности не существует». По его мнению, для обнаружения, перехвата и уничтожения баллистических ядерных ракет на фазе разгона, в течение трёх-пяти минут до их выхода на орбиту, потребуются лазерные установки, способные поражать цель на расстоянии в сотни километров, удерживая лазерный луч на одной точке для разрушения путём прожигания корпуса ракеты, летящей с огромной скоростью. В настоящее время такой технологии не существует.

В свою очередь, специалист по ракетам из исследовательского центра Oslo Nuclear Project Фабиан Хоффманн считает, что для энергоснабжения спутников, оснащённых лазерами, понадобятся мини-реакторы или, возможно, усовершенствованная система солнечных панелей. «Это потребует масштабных исследований и инвестиций, что невозможно осуществить в короткие сроки», – полагает эксперт.

Также указывается, что «Железный купол» Израиля даже при защите гораздо меньшей площади не смог перехватить все ракеты Ирана, когда тот выпустил по еврейскому государству примерно 180 ракет. А с баллистическими ракетами, которые обладают автономной системой наведения, сделать это ещё труднее. Проблема усложняется, когда добавляются боеголовки с «маневрирующими аппаратами», которые могут менять направление после входа в атмосферу и приближаться к целям с разных сторон.

Также весьма вероятно, что за океаном просто блефуют, как в своё время президент-республиканец Рональд Рейган пытался втянуть СССР в новый виток гонки вооружений, пугая своей «Стратегической оборонной инициативой». Вашингтон, как известно, впоследствии отказался от своей пустышки. Это часто практикуемый американцами метод выхода на липовые сделки со слишком доверчивыми клиентами. Нужно внимательно отслеживать все реальные действия Вашингтона на данном направлении, не быть близорукими. В политике важно уметь отделять реальность от блефа.

– Нетрудно предположить, что планы США по созданию противоракетного щита могут обернуться гонкой ядерных вооружений…

– К сожалению, такая опасность действительно существует. Вот и британская «Гардиан» написала, что планы создания «Железного купола для Америки» запустят новый виток гонки ядерных вооружений. Как подчёркивает издание, действия США по «укреплению безопасности» ранее уже неоднократно ослабляли международную стабильность, но сегодня ситуация наиболее опасная.

И с этим мнением нельзя не согласиться. Тем более что в мире уже идёт гонка ракетных вооружений, активно модернизируются ядерные арсеналы и средства доставки оружия массового уничтожения. При этом стремительно набирает обороты процесс милитаризации космоса, превращая околоземное пространство в новую арену военного противостояния. Значительную роль в этом играют новые технологии, такие как искусственный интеллект и квантовые компьютеры, которые способны многократно усилить потенциал, в том числе в сфере ПРО.

Следует также обратить внимание на то, что если раньше ПРО была нацелена, как заявляли в Вашингтоне, против «государств-изгоев», то сейчас она перенаправлена, и это специально подчёркивается, на Россию и Китай. Естественно, что в этих условиях, учитывая нынешнюю конфронтацию с Западом с его открытой политикой нанесения России стратегического ущерба, перед нашей страной может встать вопрос о внесении корректив в военно-техническую политику и военное строительство.

Беседовал Владимир Кузарь.  Источник:  «Красная звезда» 

«Звездные войны» США и России

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО Владимир Козин в программе "Специальный репортаж" на телеканале "Звезда".
 

 
20 февраля президент России Владимир Путин выступит с очередным посланием Федеральному собранию. Год назад аналогичная речь российского лидера произвела в мире эффект разорвавшейся бомбы. Именно тогда президент впервые рассказал о возможностях нашего нового гиперзвукового оружия. Выступление Путина сначала повергло многих партнеров по НАТО в панику и затем - в глубокое уныние. И вот год спустя президент США Дональд Трамп презентует фантастические проекты, заявляя, что ответ на «русский гиперзвук» найден! Но так ли это на самом деле? Разберемся в нашем «Специальном репортаже».
 
Эфир от 19 февраля 2019 г.

«Звёздные войны» возвращаются?

Пентагон уже сегодня располагает суперсовременными средствами для действий в космосе

В США космические войска как шестой вид вооружённых сил будут созданы к 2020 году. Это подтвердил вице-президент Майкл Пенс, выступая на днях в Космическом центре имени Линдона Джонсона в Хьюстоне. В своей речи он воздержался от раскрытия подробностей предстоящего формирования «звёздных войск», однако подчеркнул, что Белый дом хочет с их помощью обеспечить «доминирующее положение США в космосе».

18 июня 2018 года президент Дональд Трамп дал указание министерству обороны страны создать космические силы (United States Space Force) в качестве полноценного вида вооружённых сил страны, которые сегодня представлены армией (сухопутными войсками), ВМС, ВВС, морской пехотой и береговой охраной. В первой декаде августа Майк Пенс при посещении Пентагона пояснил, что задача нового вида ВС состоит в том, чтобы обеспечить Соединённым Штатам беспрепятственный доступ к космическому пространству и его использование в интересах Америки.

По оценке экспертов, это одно из самых «революционных» недавних решений военно-политического руководства США в военной сфере. Так, по оценке журнала «Форин полиси», путём создания новых космических войск администрация Дональда Трампа вознамерилась произвести «самое существенное структурное изменение в вооружённых силах страны за многие десятилетия».

Для этого Пентагону необходимо, по словам Пенса, уже в ближайшие месяцы развернуть командную структуру будущих космических сил США и организовать её функционирование. Она будет включать:

• космическое командование, которому предписано разрабатывать доктрины применения космических войск и проведения ими боевых операций в околоземном пространстве;

• управление по развитию космических сил, которое займётся разработкой новых видов вооружений;

• силы космических операций;

• управление по обеспечению и обслуживанию.

Уже известно, что новое космическое командование может быть создано уже к концу текущего года. Оно будет возглавляться, видимо, четырёхзвёздным генералом.

По мнению сторонников создания космических войск, их появление продиктовано четырьмя ключевыми стратегическими причинами, исходящими от действий других государств:

• разработкой ими ударных космических вооружений в виде противоспутниковых систем;

• использованием ими космоса для проведения киберопераций и других враждебных действий в отношении объектов на околоземных орбитах и целей на Земле;

• созданием ими препятствий для работы глобальных навигационных систем;

• использованием ими космического пространства для размещения информационно-разведывательных средств и технических средств контроля за вооружениями.

Утверждается, что средства связи космического базирования, успешно защищённые от попыток прослушивания или скачивания проходящей через них критически важной информации потенциальным противником, могут быть сравнительно легко уничтожены с помощью ударных космических вооружений.

Американские эксперты обращают внимание и на возможность частичного повреждения или уничтожения потенциальными противниками различных космических объектов, используемых в интересах обороны США. И для этого могут быть использованы ударно-кинетические средства, мощное электромагнитное и микроволновое излучение, лазерное и ядерное оружие, средства радиоэлектронной борьбы в виде блокирования передачи информационных данных или их подмены ложными сведениями, а также другими враждебными действиями, которые могут быть выработаны в будущем.

В связи с этим уместно будет предположить, что, обозначая подобные враждебные акции против американских космических объектов, Соединённые Штаты, видимо, и сами готовятся проводить подобные операции в космосе.

Нынешнее военно-политическое руководство США, как следует из высказываний его представителей, исходит из того, что их доминированию в космическом пространстве в настоящее время могут противостоять в силу своего потенциала Россия и КНР, а также в какой-то степени Иран и КНДР.

В первой декаде августа Пентагон направил в конгресс специальный доклад под названием «Окончательный доклад по организационным и управленческим структурам космических компонентов национальной безопасности». В нём зафиксировано, что министерство обороны США откроет новую эру в космической технологии и разместит новые космические системы «для того, чтобы сдерживать, а также в случае необходимости ослаблять, создавать препятствия, нарушать, уничтожать и влиять на потенциал противника в космосе с целью защиты американских интересов, средств и способа существования страны». Тем самым нынешняя американская администрация сформулировала основные приоритеты своей космической стратегии, которая до сих пор официально не обнародована.

Вместе с тем ряд действующих американских военачальников и гражданских экспертов выступили против создания космических войск как отдельного вида вооружённых сил. Об этом заявили, например, представители командования ВВС, в структуру которых уже входят подразделения, отвечающие за космос (Air Force Space Command). Так, министр ВВС Хизер Уилсон назвала данный шаг излишним. ВВС итак, заметила она, предложили увеличение финансирования космических программ в бюджете, а также объявили о реформе в целях повышения их эффективности и скоординированности действий.

Интересно, что в письме, направленном в конгресс летом 2017 года, министр обороны Джеймс Мэттис также высказался против их создания, но, как следует из его недавно сделанных заявлений, сейчас он придерживается другого мнения. Согласно его разъяснениям, он прежде выступал лишь против поспешного формирования новой структуры для ведения боевых операций в космосе, а не против её создания в принципе.

Военный эксперт Лорен Томпсон в статье, опубликованной на прошлой неделе в журнале «Форбс», высказал мнение, что создание космических войск лишь навредит обороноспособности США. По его словам, оно нарушит ключевые отношения между видами вооружённых сил. Так, сухопутные войска крайне зависимы от орбитальных систем, геолокации и спутниковой связи, а создание нового вида войск нарушит связи между существующими видами вооружённых сил страны, которые выстраивались на протяжении многих лет.

Помимо этого, считает эксперт, создание нового вида ВС потребует привлечения ресурсов, включая гражданский и военный персонал, которые придётся забрать у других военных структур. Кроме того, новые космические силы будут дублировать функции других командований. К примеру, по мнению Томпсона, ВВС вряд ли перестанут решать задачи по борьбе с киберугрозами, поэтому космическим силам придётся создавать свои собственные схожие оргструктуры и конкурировать за квалифицированных сотрудников.

Возникает проблема и финансирования будущих новых сил. Руководство ВВС недавно заявило, что потенциальные расходы Пентагона на создание космических сил могут оказаться гораздо больше, чем предполагается сейчас. Джеймс Мэттис в августе признал, что возглавляемое им министерство пока не определилось с общей суммой расходов на эти цели.

Вполне очевидно, что попытка нынешней администрации США создать космические силы с ударными функциями и долговременной установкой «доминировать в космосе» может иметь негативные последствия для стратегической стабильности. С точки зрения глобальных интересов человечества необходимо избежать гонки вооружений в космическом пространстве. Напомню, что генеральный постулат международного космического права гласит, что космическое пространство является общим наследием всего человечества и оно должно использоваться исключительно в мирных целях.

Автор: Владимир Козин, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России.

Источник: “Красная звезда”

«Звёздные войны» возвращаются?

К середине 2021 года завершится формирование шестого вида вооружённых сил США.

Космос уже давно рассматривается в Пентагоне как пространство ведения военных действий. О том, что делается сейчас американским руководством в этом плане и чем это может обернуться для международной безопасности, рассказывается в монографии «Военная космическая политика США: ключевые направления и будущие потенциалы», которую подготовил к изданию на английском языке ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России член-корреспондент Академии военных наук Владимир Козин. Она была на днях представлена в Фонде имени Горчакова и в МГИМО. О своём новом исследовании «Красной звезде» рассказал сам автор.

Исследование в хронологическом плане охватывает современную политику США по милитаризации околоземного пространства, которая сформировалась в первые три года президентства нынешнего хозяина Белого дома. В издании в тесной увязке проанализированы три главные вектора развития американских ударно-боевых и информационно-разведывательных потенциалов космического базирования: действующие военно-стратегические установки в этой сфере; военно-техническая составляющая космических сил, выделенных в самостоятельный шестой вид вооружённых сил (United States Space Force); масштабы финансирования этого проекта в обозримой перспективе.

Как было объявлено в канун наступившего года в Вашингтоне, командно-штабные структуры новых космических сил получат первоначально около 16 тысяч военнослужащих и гражданских специалистов, которые ранее работали в космическом командовании ВВС. Такая численность личного состава космических сил не является окончательной, она будет ещё увеличиваться в течение ближайших четырёх месяцев. В окончательном же виде новый вид вооружённых сил будет сформирован уже к середине 2021 года, что опередит по срокам первоначальные планы, обнародованные ранее администрацией США.

На поэтапное развитие космических сил США в 2020 финансовом году выделено 14,1 млрд долларов

Одновременно Пентагоном усиленно разрабатываются, и в монографии это особо подчёркивается, стратегия и тактика применения космических сил. В частности, формулируются стратегические установки об «обеспечении беспрепятственного доступа в космос» и ведении в нём «боевых действий», а также об использовании околоземного пространства в военных целях по трём возможным направлениям. Это применение противоспутниковых и иных ударно-боевых систем космического базирования в самом космосе, а также осуществление военных действий из космоса в направлении Земли и с неё против объектов, выведенных в космическое пространство.

Отдельный раздел издания посвящён планам использования космоса в качестве площадки для размещения ударных компонентов системы ПРО, что дополнит и без того разветвлённую инфраструктуру перехвата баллистических и крылатых ракет, а также гиперзвуковых планирующих блоков наземного, морского и воздушного базирования.

Новое издание содержит большое количество фактов, связанных с испытаниями в интересах Пентагона беспилотной многофункциональной космической платформы Х-37В длительного и многоразового использования.

На поэтапное развитие космических сил США в 2020 финансовом году выделено 14,1 млрд долларов, что на 14 процентов больше, чем в 2019 финансовом году.

В монографии показана негативная роль американской дипломатии в поиске конструктивного решения двух тесно связанных между собой проблем, реализация которых создала бы международно-правовые барьеры для блокирования намерений по превращению космоса в зону военных конфликтов: предотвращение размещения оружия в космосе и отказ от размещения первыми оружия в космическом пространстве. Делается вывод, что размещение американского оружия в космосе может быть направлено для нанесения превентивного ракетно-ядерного удара, а также для уничтожения различных видов ракет на ранних стадиях их полёта и усиления потенциала вооружённых сил в целом.

Отдельный раздел содержит анализ политико-дипломатических усилий России, направленных на то, чтобы космическое пространство использовалось в мирных целях, в интересах всего человечества.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: “Красная звезда”

  

«Карибский кризис» наоборот

Решение президента Трампа о выходе США из Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (РСМД) создает ситуацию, когда после размещения этого оружия у границ России может зеркально повториться обострение 1962 года, которое в истории осталось, как «Карибский кризис», когда наша страна разместила ракеты на Кубе, близ территории США. К чему может привести нынешний демарш американцев, в студии журнала «Международная жизнь» рассказывает эксперт по ракетному оружию, профессор Академии военных наук Владимир Козин.

 

Программу ведет обозреватель журнала Сергей Филатов.

Источник: interaffairs.ru

«Колумбия» придёт на смену «Огайо»

 

В США продолжается совершенствование стратегических наступательных вооружений.

В Пентагоне считают, что стратегические силы морского базирования, основу которых составляют оснащённые баллистическими ракетами атомные подводные лодки (ПЛАРБ), благодаря скрытности действий и автономности функционирования обеспечивают Соединённым Штатам гарантированную возможность нанесения удара по потенциальному противнику.*

На долю морской составляющей ядерной триады приходится треть развёрнутых стратегических ядерных боеголовок США. Это 14 ПЛАРБ типа «Огайо», восемь из которых в настоящее время приписаны к тихоокеанской базе Бангор (штат Вашингтон) и шесть – к базе Кингс-Бей, расположенной на атлантическом побережье вблизи г. Сент-Мэриё (штат Джорджия). Каждая из ПЛАРБ вооружена 24 ракетами «Трайдент II D-5». С нынешнего года количество пусковых шахт на ПЛАРБ будет сокращено с 24 до 20 по условиям выполнения США Договора СНВ-3.

Ракеты устанавливаются в шахты ПЛАРБ при выходе на боевое дежурство. После возвращения с боевого дежурства ракеты выгружаются с лодки и перемещаются в специальное хранилище – оно имеется на обеих базах.

«Трайдент II D-5» – трёхступенчатая, твёрдотопливная ракета с инерциальной системой самонаведения и дальностью стрельбы более 11 тысяч км. Все три ступени сделаны из жёсткой графитовой эпоксидной смолы, что обеспечило значительную экономию веса ракеты. Дальность стрельбы увеличена за счёт улучшения аэродинамических характеристик, в том числе благодаря использованию носовой иглы, снизившей до 50 процентов лобовое сопротивление.

Ракета может нести 8 термоядерных боевых блоков W88 по 475 килотонн или 14 W76 по 100 килотонн. Круговое вероятное отклонение от цели составляет порядка 100 метров. Благодаря такой высокой точности ракета способна эффективно поражать малоразмерные высокозащищённые цели – углублённые бункеры и шахтные пусковые установки межконтинентальных баллистических ракет.

Первоначально американские ВМС предполагали сохранять в своём составе группировку ПЛАРБ с ракетами «Трайдент-2» в течение 30 лет, но впоследствии приняли решение об увеличении их максимального срока службы до 42 лет. Исходя из этого, ПЛАРБ типа «Огайо» будут выводиться из состава подводных ядерных сил с 2027 года.

На замену им придут ПЛАРБ нового типа. По первому кораблю вся серия из запланированных 12 субмарин будет именоваться ПЛАРБ типа «Колумбия» (Колумбия – федеральный округ, где находится столица США).

Начало строительства головной субмарины было запланировано на 2019 год, но из-за нехватки финансовых ресурсов оно отложено до 2021 года. Это означает, что подлодка будет передана ВМС в 2029 году и выйдет на первое боевое патрулирование в 2031 году. Вторая подводная лодка этого проекта должна появиться в 2030 году. А в период с 2032 по 2041 год, как объявлено, со стапелей кораблестроительных верфей будет сходить по одной ПЛАРБ нового проекта в год. Они будут находиться на вооружении 42 года, то есть приблизительно до 2083 года.

Новая ПЛАРБ будет иметь диаметр корпуса свыше 13 метров по сравнению с 12,6 метра у ракетоносцев «Огайо» и длину до 170 метров, то есть такую же, как и у её предшественницы. Водоизмещение составит 20 815 тонн, в то время как у субмарины типа «Огао» 18 750 тонн. Объявлено также, что экипаж «Колумбии» будет состоять из 155 военнослужащих.

В отличие от субмарин типа «Огайо», которые требуют производить перезагрузку ядерного топлива в середине их срока службы, ПЛАРБ проекта «Колумбия» могут быть загружены ядерным топливом, достаточным для обеспечения энергетики новых субмарин в течение всего запланированного срока службы. Однако в любом случае потребуется проведение капитального ремонта, но гораздо меньшего по срокам, чем у ПЛАРБ типа «Огайо». Командование ВМС США планирует, что времонте будут находиться одновременно две лодки.

В Пентагоне рассчитывают, что ВМС группировкой в12 новых ПЛАРБ смогут обеспечить такое же присутствие в Мировом океане, какое сегодня позволяют осуществлять 14 субмарин типа «Огайо». По данным исследовательской службы конгресса, опубликованным в 2018 году, в каждый момент времени на боевом дежурстве в Мировом океане будут находиться до 4-5 ПЛАРБ типа «Колумбия».

Перспективный подводный ракетоносец будет оснащён электрическим двигателем для небольших перемещений в отличие от механического привода, который используется на атомных подводных лодках американских ВМС прежних проектов. Система электрического привода, как ожидается, обеспечит меньшую шумность.

Ещё одной отличительной особенностью ПЛАРБ нового типа станет наличие у них пусковых установок баллистических ракет такого же размера, как и на подводных лодках типа «Огайо». То есть смогут применять ракеты «Трайдент-2». Каждая подлодка нового поколения будет иметь по 16 пусковых установок для баллистических ракет, каждая из которых будет нести по 5 или 6 ядерных боезарядов.

На 2018 финансовый год с целью продолжения работ по созданию головной подводной лодки проекта «Колумбия» было выделено 1,93 млрд долларов. А на 2019 финансовый год запрошено 3,7 млрд долларов. По данным управления по подотчётности правительства США, обнародованным в марте 2016 года, общие расходы на создание группировки подводных ракетоносцев типа «Колумбия» могут составить до 97 млрд долларов (в ценах 2016 года). Из них 85,1 млрд долларов должны быть выделены на их закупку и ещё 12 млрд долларов – на проведение НИОКР.

Но в августе 2017 года Пентагон сообщил о новом рубеже – 128 млрд долларов. В 2018 году счётная палата США обозначила ещё более высокую сумму расходов – 139 млрд долларов – на те же 12 субмарин.

Предпринимаемые сегодня администрацией США усилия по модернизации стратегических наступательных вооружений дают основание сделать вывод о том, что американцы намерены значительно повысить гибкость и многообразие своего ядерного потенциала. На это нацеливает Пентагон и обновлённые национальные военная стратегия и ядерная доктрина, которые имеют наступательный характер и глобальную проекцию.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: “Красная звезда”

 

«Макрон-пророк? Или возможные сценарии развития России»

В студии:
- главный редактор ИА «Реалист» Саркис Цатурян;
- член корреспондент академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин.
 
 
Источник: Радио Спутник
 
Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/45400

 

«Меньшая дальность» ракет нервирует Пентагон

Бесполезная суета госсекретаря Тиллерсона вокруг договора РСМД

На днях государственный секретарь США Рекс Тиллерсон в интервью телекомпании Си-эн-эн заявил, что Москве и Вашингтону предстоят очень важные переговоры по договорам о сокращении стратегических наступательных вооружений (СНВ) и о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (РСМД). Вместе с тем он не стал уточнять, о чём идёт речь – о регулярных консультациях или о новых инициативах.

Такое заявление руководителя американского внешнеполитического ведомства представляется весьма странным, если учесть, что, например, на тридцать первой сессии Специальной контрольной комиссии по РСМД, состоявшейся 12–14 декабря 2017 года в Женеве, делегации России, Белоруссии, Казахстана, США и Украины обсудили вопросы, относящиеся к выполнению принятых по нему обязательств. Как отмечается в сообщениях для СМИ российского МИД и американского госдепа, участвовавшие во встрече представители заявили, что договор продолжает играть «важную роль в существующей системе международной безопасности, ядерного разоружения и нераспространения и что они будут работать над его сохранением и укреплением».

В последовавшем за этой информацией специальном заявлении Североатлантического совета по названному договору, опубликованном 15 декабря прошлого года, было отмечено, что он внёс вклад в стратегическую стабильность и что его полное соблюдение имеет важное значение. Также было подчёркнуто, что государства – участники НАТО «по-прежнему полностью привержены сохранению этого исторического договора по контролю над вооружениями».

При этом в заявлении предпринята ещё одна попытка обвинить Россию в нарушении Договора по РСМД. В частности, в нём голо¬словно указано, что государства – члены НАТО «выявили российскую ракетную систему, которая вызывает серьёзную озабоченность», не уточняя, где и когда состоялось такое «выявление», какой тип имела «выявленная» ракета и каковым был вид её базирования.

Несмотря на эти «огрехи», участники Североатлантического союза многозначительно призвали Россию рассмотреть их «озабоченность серьёзным и открытым образом», а также принять активное участие в некоем «техническом» диалоге с Соединёнными Штатами по данной проблематике. При этом, однако, они «позабыли» упомянуть ряд весьма существенных обстоятельств.

Во-первых, то, что начиная с 2001 года, когда США объявили о своём выходе из Договора по ПРО, Пентагон провёл 92 испытания ракет-перехватчиков, в ходе которых в качестве ракет-мишеней использовались ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, запрещённые Договором по РСМД. То есть Соединённые Штаты не единожды, а многократно, и причём не технически, а политически и юридически, нарушали договорный акт, которому на словах они придают большое значение.

Во-вторых, страны НАТО в своём заявлении ничего не сказали о том, что универсальные пусковые установки Мк-41 операционной базы ПРО США в Румынии, уже находящейся на боевом дежурстве, могут загружаться не только ракетами-перехватчиками, но и наступательными крылатыми ракетами наземного базирования. А это также является прямым нарушением Договора по РСМД.

В-третьих, в заявлении НАТО не отмечен тот факт, что в 2017 году американский конгресс санкционировал разработку новой мобильно-грунтовой крылатой ракеты наземного базирования средней дальности в обычном и ядерном снаряжении, которая запрещена Договором по РСМД.

В Российской Федерации считают, что крайне неблагополучная ситуация, возникшая в связи с многократным несоблюдением Договора по РСМД американской стороной, усиливает продолжающийся процесс планомерного и методичного расшатывания Вашингтоном системы глобальной стратегической стабильности и международной безопасности.

Автор:  Владимир Козин, Источник: “Красная звезда”

«Минитмен» американской триады

В США продолжается совершенствование стратегических наступательных вооружений

«Красная звезда» продолжает публикацию материалов об особенностях создания новой стратегической ядерной триады США. Предыдущая статья о развитии тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков была опубликована в номере от 8 сентября 2018 года. Нынешняя посвящена американским стратегическим ракетно-ядерным силам наземного базирования, совершенствованию которых военно-политическое руководство США придаёт особое значение.

Как считают в Вашингтоне, межконтинентальные баллистические ракеты, которые составляют основу этих сил, находятся в постоянной наивысшей степени боевой готовности и могут быть применены в более короткие сроки, чем остальные компоненты стратегической ядерной триады. А посему они имеют преимущество в решении задач по защите жизненно важных интересов США, их союзников и партнёров как в упреждающем, так и в ответно-встречном ракетно-ядерном ударе.

В настоящее время эти ракеты организационно входят в состав 20-й воздушной армии (штаб на авиабазе Уоррен, штат Вайоминг), которая административно подчинена глобальному ударному командованию ВВС США. Основной организационно-штатной единицей ракетно-ядерных сил наземного базирования является ракетное крыло (Missile Wing). Всего их три – 90-е, расположенное на авиабазе Уоррен, 91-е (Майнот, Северная Дакота) и 341-е (Мальмстром, Монтана).

Каждое крыло имеет оперативную группу, которая состоит из трёх эскадрилий МБР (Missile Squadron). В каждой из них – пять боевых отрядов по десять шахтных пусковых установок. Всего на вооружении США 450 МБР «Минитмен-3». Это принятая на вооружение в 1970 году трёхступенчатая твёрдотопливная ракета, дальность стрельбы которой достигает 13 000 км и точность (круговое вероятное отклонение) – до 210 м. «Минитмен-3» несёт по одному ядерному боезаряду W87 мощностью до 300 килотонн.

На протяжении последних десяти лет американские ВВС осуществили несколько программ, призванных улучшить точность наведения и надёжность МБР «Минитмен-3», а также обеспечить оперативную возможность их использования вплоть до 2030 года. Согласно некоторым оценкам, подобные усилия могли потребовать от 6 до 7 млрд долларов.

В частности, была реализована программа модернизации системы взрывателей боезарядов МБР с целью заменить прежнюю систему Mк-2 и повысить точность поражения намеченных целей. Потребность в такой замене была продиктована тем, что срок службы системы взрывателей уже превысил требуемый десятилетний период в условиях, когда стратегическое командование не стало располагать достаточным количеством взрывателей для МБР, которые отвечали бы новым требованиям.

По этой причине министерство обороны страны запросило 13,7 млн долларов на реализацию названой программы в проекте военного бюджета на 2016 финансовый год. Оно также предположило израсходовать до 2020 года на аналогичные цели ещё около 65 млн. долларов. По данным Пентагона, в соответствии с указанной программой должно быть произведено 693 модернизированных взрывателей для всех МБР «Минитмен-3» с определённым резервным запасом, что потребовало бы в общей сложности 830 млн долларов.

Ещё в 2006 году ВВС США стали обновлять систему управления в центрах запуска МБР. Такая работа была завершена в конце того же года. Её реализация позволила быстрее производить перенацеливание ядерных боезарядов МБР, что в очередном «Обзоре ядерной политики» было квалифицировано как важный элемент будущих американских ракетно-ядерных сил стратегического назначения. Что касается компьютерного обеспечения головных частей таких ракет, то Пентагон внедрял новые технологии для повышения возможностей их более точного наведения на цели на конечном участке траектории полёта ракеты.

Программа модернизации включает также разработку новых видов топлива для первой и второй ступеней ракет «Минитмен-3», улучшение технических характеристик их третьей ступени; увеличение тяги двигателей (данный раздел программы должен завершиться к 2020 году); повышение точности и надёжности собственной системы их наведения в полёте после старта, а также точности наведения таких ракет в центрах их запуска при оперативной замене целей в их полётных заданиях.

Вместе с тем в 2017 году США приняли решение о разработке новой твёрдотопливной МБР, которая должна заменить «Минитмен-3». Условно она названа Ground Based Strategic Deterrent, то есть «ракета стратегического сдерживания наземного базирования», которую иногда неофициально называют «Минитмен-4». Её разработка финансируется через бюджет, выделяемый на НИОКР, и в рамках ряда проектов, объединённых одним общим названием «Демонстрационно-тестирующая программа». Она позволяет развивать технологии, сохраняющие всю группировку существующих МБР «Минитмен-3», а также разрабатывать стратегическую ракету межконтинентальной дальности нового поколения.

На новой МБР «Минитмен-4» будут установлены наиболее эффективные средства наведения на цели, увеличена её скорость и дальность полёта, использована новая система запуска и контролирования движения. Новые ракетоносители этого класса должны иметь способность «преодолевать усовершенствованную интегрированную систему противоракетной обороны и ситуацию с заведомо искажёнными данными глобальной системы навигационного позиционирования, находясь в режиме ожидания на значительном расстоянии от целей наведения».

Специалисты из Пентагона считают, что без создания такой ракеты повышенной дальности остающиеся у США стратегические тяжёлые бомбардировщики могли бы доставлять к целям потенциального удара только авиабомбы свободного падения и крылатые ракеты воздушного базирования, причём на гораздо меньшие расстояния, чем те, которые могли бы преодолеть новые межконтинентальные баллистические ракеты большой дальности. По официальным данным, создание новой МБР «Минитмен-4» в рамках стратегической триады следующего поколения США потребует до 140 млрд долларов.

Под 400 МБР «Минитмен-4» будут сохранены 450 шахтных пусковых установок, что позволит, с одной стороны, обеспечить большее рассредоточение таких ракет на континентальной части страны, а с другой – создать 50 ложных целей. Все 450 таких шахт будут модернизированы под новую ракету.

С целью повышения эффективности отдельных узлов и агрегатов новой ракеты она будет собираться по модульному принципу. 21 августа 2017 года корпорации «Боинг» и «Нортроп Груммэн» получили контракты на проведение технико-экономического обоснования и обеспечение безопасности новой ракеты стоимостью 349,2 и 328,6 млн долларов соответственно. Эти работы должны быть завершены в августе 2020 года.

Как указано в одобренном президентом США Дональдом Трампом «Обзоре ядерной политики», поступление новых МБР «Минитмен-4» в ядерные силы страны начнётся с 2029 года. Таким образом, они станут по очереди вторым элементом новой американской ядерной триады по срокам начала поступления в стратегические ядерные силы США.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: “Красная звезда”

«На новые перспективные вооружения России договор СНВ-3 не распространяется»

 
Доклад ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козина на международной конференции «Проблемы нераспространения ядерного оружия»
 
В связи многочисленными заявлениями высокопоставленных официальных американских представителей о необходимости включения в возможный будущий переговорный процесс между Москвой и Вашингтоном вопроса о продлении российско-американского Договора СНВ-3 до 2026 года всех пяти новых видов российских систем вооружений, о которых было объявлено Президентом России Владимиром Путиным в марте 2018 года, в российском экспертном сообществе возникла дискуссия о целесообразности распространения на них положений названного договорного акта. 
 
Эксперты, выступающие за укрепление обороноспособности России и стратегической стабильности в мире, выражают глубокое сомнение в том, что российская сторона должна идти навстречу Вашингтону вопреки тому, что все без исключения системы, о которых он говорит, кроме одной – это МБР «Сармат», не подпадают под положения этого договора, подписанного в Праге в 2010 году. Другая, весьма малочисленная группа российских экспертов, поддерживающая тесные контакты с западными политологическими центрами, считает возможным пойти навстречу американским контрагентам и отказаться от всех или от какой-то части российских перспективных систем вооружений в обмен за согласие Соединенных Штатов продлить Пражский договор и оживить контроль над вооружениями, который по признанию обеих сторон, зашел в глухой тупик.
 
Что же конкретно интересует Вашингтон в данном вопросе?
 
Американская сторона первоначально называла только два из этих пяти видов вооружений: гиперзвуковой планирующий крылатый боевой блок «Авангард» и новую МБР «Сармат», которая должна придать ему первоначальную скорость после ее запуска. Впоследствии были обозначены и остальные три ударные системы России: ракетный комплекс «Кинжал» воздушного базирования, океанская многоцелевая автономная система «Посейдон», а также крылатая ракета «Буревестник», оснащенная мини-ядерным двигателем. На боевую лазерную установку «Пересвет»  американское руководство решило вообще не обращать внимания, поскольку лазерные вооружения вообще не затрагиваются в каких-то договорах, кроме Соглашения о предотвращении инцидентов на море 1972 года.
 
В этой связи возникают два существенных вопроса. Во-первых, почему американские сторона попытались распространить его положения именно на указанные системы? Во-вторых, какие цели она преследует, требуя увязать эти системы с положениями договора 2010 года? 
 
Анализ заявлений военно-политического руководства США показывает, что оно проявило заметную озабоченность по поводу тактико-технических характеристик этих видов вооружений, о которых было частично объявлено российским руководством, а также по причине того, что американский ВПК практически еще многие годы не сможет ничего противопоставить этим российским системам по ударно-боевым возможностям и полетным скоростным характеристикам. 
 
Не имея оснований для достижения договоренностей с Москвой по данной проблематике, в Вашингтоне также пришли к выводу, что обе эти новейшие перспективные и наиболее высокотехнологичные российские ударные системы позволят многократно усилить оборонный потенциал России в короткие сроки при умеренных затратах материально-технических и денежных средств.
 
Чтобы придать юридическую солидность своим требованиям в том, что упомянутые новые российские системы вооружений могут быть развернуты до 5 февраля 2021 года, то есть до даты истечения срока действия Договора СНВ-3, государственный департамент США заявил, что они будут считаться «существующими типами» и будут подпадать под положения названного договора «в соответствующий момент цикла их разработки».
Но такие системы просто не упомянуты в этом договоре. В пункте 8 его статьи III содержатся конкретные перечисления носителей СНВ двух сторон. 
 
Там заявлено, что на дату его подписания (8 апреля 2010 года)  «существующими типами» межконтинентальных баллистических ракет для Российской Федерации являлись: РС-12М, РС-12М2, РС-18, РС-20 и РС-24, а к существующим российским типам баллистических ракет подводных лодок были отнесены БРПЛ РСМ-50, РСМ-52, РСМ-54 и РСМ-56. Были указаны и типы тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков (ТСБ) России. Разумеется, перечислялись по типам все три компонента стратегической триады США. В этой же статье также указывались существующие у сторон пусковые установки для МБР и БРПЛ, а также типы ТСБ. Как видно, МБР «Сармат» там не было и в помине.
 
Тем не менее, пункт 1 статьи V позволял и до сих пор позволяет сторонам производить модернизацию и замену своих СНВ без указания каких-то сроков или этапов.
 
Что касается гиперзвукового планирующего крылатого боевого блока «Авангард», то он является уникальным боевым блоком, об ограничительных параметрах которых в Договоре СНВ-3 вообще ничего не говорится. А статья II указывает только на три конкретных объекта сокращений СНВ: МБР, БРПЛ и ТСБ сторон, их пусковых установок и боезарядов до определенного количества. Ничего не говорится даже о классических боевых блоках традиционной стратегической ядерной триады сторон.
 
Что же касается новой МБР «Сармат», то в соответствии со статьей III Пражского договора о принципах засчета МБР и БРПЛ к таковым могут быть засчитаны только те типы, которые «обслуживаются, хранятся и транспортируются» в виде уже собранных ракет в пусковых контейнерах или без них. Как известно, МБР «Сармат» еще не поступила на вооружение российских РВСН. По этой причине она пока не может учитываться в Договоре СНВ-3. 
 
Было бы странным, если бы Москва пошла на сокращение или уничтожение своих новых перспективных систем вооружений только потому, что так хочется Вашингтону в условиях, когда она достигла гораздо большего прогресса в их развитии, чем США. Такой шаг был бы весьма опасным, поскольку он негативным образом сказался бы на укреплении национальной обороны и безопасности России, а также в еще большей степени подорвал бы стратегическую стабильность в глобальном измерении. Новые системы вооружений, о которых идет речь, позволяют в разы укрепить не только национальную безопасность России, но и стратегическую стабильность в глобальном масштабе, поскольку их принятие на вооружение сможет одновременно выправить некоторые дисбалансы в ядерных, противоракетных и в тяжелых обычных вооружениях, которые возникли по инициативе Соединённых Штатов и в их пользу.
 
Какой имеется смысл ликвидировать подобные российские системы вооружений, если Вашингтон практически отказался признавать наличие взаимосвязи между стратегическими наступательными ядерными вооружениями и стратегическими оборонительными вооружениями, что было зафиксировано в преамбуле Договора СНВ-3? Какой имеется смысл в этом, если Соединенные Штаты придерживаются деструктивных принципов в сфере контроля над вооружениями, отказываясь от принципа равенства и равной безопасности и не отказываясь от наступательных военных доктрин и стратегии нанесения первого ядерного удара? 
 
Итак, у американской стороны вообще нет никаких юридических оснований для распространения положений Договора СНВ-3 на новые перспективные системы вооружений Российской Федерации.
 
Американской стороне может быть дан и иной ответ по этому поводу, который может быть прост и конкретен: Москва не намерена вести никаких дискуссий по проблематике ограничений или сокращений названных систем с Соединенными Штатами, которые до сих пор негативно относятся к 13 международным договорам в сфере контроля над вооружениями, шесть из которых имеют прямое отношение к ядерным вооружениям, до сих пор сохраняют тактические ядерные арсеналы в Европе, приблизило носители ядерного оружия в виде ТСБ и самолетов «двойного назначения», а также противоракетную инфраструктуру морского и наземного базирования к территории России.
 
Выступая 6 ноября в Кремле на церемонии представления главе государства офицеров и прокуроров по случаю их назначения на высшие командные должности и присвоения им высших воинских и специальных званий, Президент Владимир Путин заявил: «Наша Армия и Флот доказали свою высокую готовность, и мы намерены наращивать оборонный потенциал, ставить на боевое дежурство системы гиперзвукового, лазерного и другого современного вооружения, которого пока нет у других стран». Особо отметив, что это шаг не является поводом для того, чтобы кому-то угрожать, он добавил: «Напротив, мы готовы сделать все от нас зависящее для того, чтобы подтолкнуть разоруженческий процесс с учетом наших новейших систем вооружения, задача которых заключается исключительно в том, чтобы гарантировать безопасность с учетом растущих для нас угроз».
 
Именно «подтолкнуть разоруженческий процесс», а не разоружиться в одностороннем порядке ради него.  Ключевое значение также имеет вторая часть цитируемого высказывания о задаче новейших систем вооружений, которая заключается «… исключительно в том, чтобы гарантировать безопасность с учетом растущих для нас угроз».
 
Вполне очевидно, что выпячивая проблему «новых российских вооружений» с искусственной увязкой с Договором СНВ-3 и желая вовлечь в него КНР, которая уже не раз заявляла об отсутствии такой возможности, Вашингтон все-таки решил выйти из Пражского договора по аналогичной схеме, которую он использовал как пропагандистское и лукавое прикрытие необоснованной и односторонней денонсации Договора о ликвидации РСМД в августе текущего года. 
 
Москва не считает возможным обсуждать включение новых российских вооружений в Договора СНВ-3 без его пересмотра, заявил заместитель главы МИД России Сергей Рябков на Московской конференции по нераспространению, состоявшейся в первой декаде ноября. Он напомнил, что с американской стороны звучат рассуждения о распространении действия договора «на не подпадающие под его охват новые российские вооружения», о которых неоднократно высказывался президент России Владимир Путин. «Это невозможно без вскрытия и существенной переработки текста соглашения», - заявил подчеркнул он. 
 
Вполне очевидно, что подобное «вхождение в текст» Договора СНВ-3 с целью его любой переработки, редактирования уже согласованных и утвержденных статей или включения каких-то новых формулировок привела бы к коренной ломке этой договоренности, что не отвечает коренным интересам в области национальной безопасности Российской Федерации.
 
Что касается возможного отказа США от продления Договора СНВ-3 или его односторонней денонсации, то коснувшись этой темы на полях Международного экономического форума в Санкт-Петербурге в июне этого года, Президент России Владимир Путин не исключил вероятность отказа России от продления Договора СНВ-3 в том случае, США не пойдут на его продление на последующие пять лет. 
 
Естественно: ответственность за это ляжет только на Вашингтон.
 
В.П. Козин
член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН, ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ
Выступление на Международной конференции по нераспространению
Москва, 8-9 ноября 2019 г.
 
Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/45399

«Новые разрушительные технологии»: очередная уловка США

Вашингтон придумал новую ещё более изощрённую и нереальную схему контроля над чужими вооружениями

Некоторые западные академические научно-исследовательские центры стали уделять повышенное внимание оценке потенциального влияния, как они называют, «новых разрушительных технологий» (new disruptive technologies) или «появляющихся разрушительных технологий» (emerging disruptive technologies) на стратегическую стабильность и контроль над вооружениями. Разумеется, имеются в виду военные технологии, используемые при производстве различных видов вооружений ударного действия.

Раньше подобные технологии подвергались осуждению среди миротворческих и антивоенных организаций на том основании, что после их разработки и использования при производстве новых видов вооружений человечество может:

•             случайно или в автоматическом режиме начать ограниченную и глобальную ядерную войну;

•             создать такие роботизированные автономные боевые системы, которые будут нещадно истреблять реальные человеческие армии других государств.

Что нам предлагают сократить?

В последнее время термин «новые разрушительные технологии» стал использоваться в качестве предлога для постановки вопроса о ликвидации появившихся или появляющихся перспективных видов вооружений - не только ядерных, но и обычных, способных решать стратегические задачи.

Так, на вебинаре, проведённом недавно в одном из европейских городов (не называю по этическим соображениям), были перечислены некоторые российские перспективные виды вооружений, которые должны быть ограничены или сокращены именно по причине использования в них, якобы, именно «новых разрушительных технологий». В этом контексте были названы отдельные новейшие виды российских вооружений, в том числе гиперзвуковые системы различных видов базирования, подводные автономные аппараты с ядерным оружием на борту, мобильные системы наземного базирования в ядерном снаряжении, а также ударные боевые космические средства.

Нетрудно представить, какие именно новейшие российские системы вооружений западные исследователи имеют в виду.

В одной публикации был сделан критический кивок и в сторону российских ядерных средств нанесения второго, то есть ответного удара. Упомянули при этом и автоматизированную систему применения ядерного оружия «Периметр», известную в НАТО как «Мёртвая рука» - комплекс автоматического управления массированным ответным ядерным ударом, созданный в СССР в разгар холодной войны, также используемый Россией. «Периметр» является альтернативной командной системой, имеющей на вооружении ядерные боезаряды. Она была создана в качестве резервной системы связи на тот случай, если ключевые узлы управления ядерными силами будут уничтожены первым ядерным ударом США, которые до сих пор не отказались от такой инициирующей концепции.

При этом критики системы «Периметр» не напоминают о двух её принципиальных особенностях: во-первых, она исключает возможность принятия решения об ответном ядерном ударе в случае ложной тревоги; и во-вторых, несмотря на все автоматизированные блоки и системы, последнее слово при её запуске будет за человеком.

Одновременно в проведённых западных исследования на тему «новых разрушительных технологий» всплыла задача их блокирования совершенно с другой целью: надо, дескать, не допустить, чтобы они попали в руки террористических групп.

Двойной стандарт, двойной запрет

Иными словами, в академических структурах стран-членов Североатлантического союза предпринимается попытка подобраться к ограничению (программа-минимум) перспективных видов вооружений или к их ликвидации (программа-максимум) у потенциального противника не с помощью уже апробированного десятилетиями переговорного процесса по контролю над вооружениями за столом переговоров с выработкой соответствующих соглашений, а путём введения двойного запрета.

Во-первых, посредством введения запрета на «новые разрушительные технологии» или «появляющиеся разрушительные технологии» военного характера.

Во-вторых, путём введения ограничений или запрета на новые перспективные виды вооружений, при производстве которых применяются названные технологии.

В своё время схожий вариант активно использовала американская сторона при обсуждении вопросов сокращения стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений с Советским Союзом. Тогда американские переговорщики породили термин «дестабилизирующий» вид ядерных вооружений этого класса, к которому они отнесли наиболее эффективные «тяжёлые» советские МБР, которые они прозвали «Сатаной» и которые были отчасти уничтожены только за такой привешенный к ним ярлык.

Важно напомнить: у американской стороны «дестабилизирующих» ядерных ракет межконтинентального класса тогда почему-то не нашлось.

Почему нельзя выйти на конструктивные договорённости

Придуманная кем-то новая схема решения проблемы контроля над вооружениями за счёт искусственного деления передовых военных технологий на «плохие» и «хорошие» идёт в таком же русле.

Но она представляется довольно непрофессиональной по сути, дисбалансированной по основным векторам применения и нереальной с точки зрения её реализации.

1. Изложенная позиция представляется непрофессиональной по той причине, что термин «новые разрушительные технологии» никем не утверждён и не стал предметом межгосударственных консультаций по проблематике стратегической стабильности и контролю над вооружениями, например, между Москвой и Вашингтоном.

Что касается вопроса о термине «военные технологии», то представляется, что российский альтернативный термин «новые перспективные технологии» является более гибким и нейтральным, чем натовский термин «новые разрушительные технологии», который используется в странах трансатлантического альянса слишком свободно и без каких-либо объяснений.

2. Подобная позиция выглядит дисбалансированной потому, что этот термин, по мнению его авторов и сторонников его применения, должен иметь отношение только к определённым государствам, например, к Российской Федерации и КНР, но никак не распространяться на перспективные вооружения Соединённых Штатов и их союзников по НАТО, располагающих перспективными военными технологиями, которые используются ими при разработке и создании собственных новейших видов вооружений.

Например, официальный Вашингтон и американские академические круги до сих пор не назвали новые перспективные виды вооружений, которые разрабатываются и создаются в Соединённых Штатах с помощью «новых разрушительных технологий», да и вообще хотя бы какой-то вид собственных высокоточных гиперзвуковых систем в ядерном или неядерном оснащении и ударных космических вооружений, которые следовало бы сократить или ограничить вместе с российской стороной на той же «технологической основе».

Дисбалансированной такая точка зрения представляется и по той причине, что, мол, помимо негативных перспективных военных технологий в виде их новых разрушительных вариантов, которые используются при создании «деструктивных» видов вооружений,  существуют ещё некие «позитивные» перспективные военные технологии, применяющиеся при производстве «конструктивных» видов вооружений, которые никому не угрожают и их производство должно быть продолжено безо всяких ограничений. Такие позитивные технологии, разумеется, есть только у США и НАТО в целом.

А можно ли реально разделить военные технологии на два таких вида? В принципе можно, но только на военные технологии, используемые при создании ударных видов вооружений и неударных видов военной техники. Например, в последнем случае - при производстве метеорологических и навигационных спутников, космических сенсоров, радиолокационных станций различных способов базирования и некоторых других средств информационно-разведывательного характера, не располагающих ударными возможностями.

Все остальные военные технологии применяются для производства ударных видов вооружений.

3. Искусственное выделение неких «новых разрушительных технологий» из числа существующих и разрабатываемых новых перспективных технологий, используемых при производстве перспективных видов вооружений и ведение по ним какого-то официального переговорного процесса, является нереальным, поскольку между Россией и США, а также между Россией и НАТО отсутствуют взаимное доверие и нормальный диалог по контролю над вооружениями, а уровень их военно-политических отношений по инициативе и вине американской стороны и Североатлантического альянса  в целом упал до самой низкой точки. Ниже плинтуса.

В таких условиях выйти на конструктивные договорённости, не подвергая одновременно опасности собственную национальную безопасность и стратегическую стабильность, не представляется возможным.

Рекомендации по решению проблемы

В 2020 году группа исследователей Стокгольмского международного института исследования проблем мира (СИПРИ) предложила целый ряд рекомендаций по контролю за «новыми перспективными технологиями» и за новыми перспективными видами вооружений.

Рекомендации, в частности, включали: обязательство снизить уровень боевой готовности ядерных арсеналов противоборствующих сторон; внедрение мер по обеспечению транспарентности и обмену информацией и специфических мер, связанных с искусственным интеллектом, в том числе мер, связанных с его военным применением; реализация договорённостей, связанных с использованием искусственного интеллекта в случае с ядерным оружием и ядерным сдерживанием; более эффективное научное сотрудничество между военными представителями и академическими сообществами сторон, а также принятие дополнительных договоров по контролю над вооружениями.

Что касается новых перспективных видов военных технологий, то их просто невозможно контролировать вследствие мощного и пока непреодолённого военно-политического, торгово-экономического, финансового, информационного и иных видов противостояния, всё ещё сохраняющихся между Россией, с одной стороны, и Соединёнными Штатами и НАТО, с другой. Четыре раунда межправительственных консультаций по проблематике стратегической стабильности, состоявшиеся между Москвой и Вашингтоном в период президентства Дональда Трампа, и две аналогичные встречи, проведённые в период деятельности администрации Джозефа Байдена, показали, что даже процесс простого выправления российско-американских дипломатических отношений будет трудным и затяжным.

Межправительственные консультации по проблематике стратегической стабильности, показали, что даже процесс простого выправления российско-американских дипломатических отношений будет трудным и затяжным.

В сложившейся ситуации довольно сложно добиться взаимопонимания и сохранения баланса интересов сторон:

• если постоянно следовать начертанной американским военно-политическим руководством кривой дорогой селективного или выборочного способа сокращения одних видов вооружений, оставляя «за скобками» переговоров другие;

• если Вашингтон не изменит своего негативного отношения к тринадцати двусторонним и многосторонним договорённостям по контролю над вооружениями;

• если американская сторона не перейдёт на оборонительное ядерное сдерживание, которое никому не угрожает.

Автор: В.П. Козин. Источник: Еженедельник “Звезда”

«Новый подход» США к контролю над вооружениями

В апреле этого года Государственный департамент США после долгих раздумий наконец-то опубликовал долгожданное «исследование» в области контроля над вооружениями (КНВ), которое постоянно откладывалось по неизвестным причинам. Оно вышло в новом издании американского внешнеполитического ведомства, имеющем собственное название «Контроль над вооружениями и исследовательские разработки в сфере международной безопасности», которое будет выходить периодически.
 
Первым материалом в нем стало «исследование» Кристофера Форда, занимающего должность заместителя государственного секретаря США по вопросам международной безопасности и нераспространения.
 
В своем новом апрельском изыскании, которое вышло под многообещающим заголовком «Следующее поколение контроля над вооружениями», предпринята попытка изложить основные принципы Администрации президента Дональда Трампа в названной сфере.
 
Как известно, США открыто продемонстрировали свою негативную позицию к 13 двусторонним и многосторонним договорам и соглашениям, сдерживающим гонку вооружений по различным направлениям.
 
Но этот высокопоставленный представитель Государственного департамента так и не смог объяснить, почему американская сторона либо в одностороннем порядке денонсировала часть договоренностей именно в области контроля над вооружениями (например, ДРСМД, «иранскую ядерную сделку» и Договор о торговле оружием), либо нарушила часть из них (к примеру, ДРСМД и продолжает нарушать Договор СНВ-3), либо отказалась от их ратификации (скажем, ДВЗЯИ) или вообще предпочла не обсуждать некоторые  проекты новых международных договоренностей, в частности, по предотвращению гонки вооружений в космическом пространстве.
 
В своем «исследовании» Кристофер Форд вообще обошел стороной такой актуальнейший вопрос последних лет российско-американских отношений и мировой политики – проблему пролонгации Договора СНВ-3. Видимо, не продлят. Но зато затронул некоторые иные темы.
 
Он вновь поднял шумиху о том, что российские «экзотические» виды вооружений, обозначенные президентом России в марте 2018 года, подпадают под определения Договора СНВ-3. Увы, не подпадают. В этом договоре нет положений, которые ограничивали бы «гиперзвуковые планирующие боевые блоки» или «подводные автономные системы». Не могут распространяться его положения и на новые МБР, например, на ракету «Сармат», которая еще не прошла всех испытаний, массовое производство которой еще не начато и которая пока не поступила на вооружение российских РВСН.
 
По мнению Кристофера Форда, именно Россия и КНР «бросают вызов» КНВ своими ядерными потенциалами, а вот, мол, США, которые в ближайшие 30 лет израсходуют на создание качественно новой стратегической ядерной триады до 1,7 трлн. долларов, такого вызова не бросают. Странная логика. А точнее: отсутствие вообще какой-то логики. В этом контексте откровенно ложным заявлением заместителя государственного секретаря является его «признание», что Соединенные Штаты не наращивают свой ядерный арсенал. Словно нет никаких огромных расходов на эти цели и не принятых Конгрессом решений о модернизации существующих ядерных систем и о создании качественно новых.
 
Он обрушился с критикой на Россию за то, что она, якобы, по-прежнему нарушает недействующий ДРСМД, который перестал существовать именно благодарю одностороннему и инициативному выходу из него в августе 2019 года именно США. Интересно: как можно нарушать договор, который не существует?
 
Пекину досталось за его нежелание участвовать в трехсторонних переговорах по сокращению ядерных вооружений с Вашингтоном и Москвой, на чем активно настаивает Белый дом, несмотря на твердый отказ КНР вступить в такие дискуссии.
 
Коснувшись проблематики введения возможных ограничений на тактическое ядерное оружие (ТЯО),  названный американский эксперт так и не пояснил: а собираются ли Соединенные Штаты полностью освободить Европу от своих ядерных вооружений этого класса, которые находятся на европейском континенте уже свыше 70 лет, и вывезти их на свою континентальную территорию? То есть поступить точно также, как поступила Россия, которая к середине 90-ых годов прошлого столетия перебазировала все ТЯО из трех бывших советских республик на свою территорию.
 
Но на эту актуальную тему в докладе руководителя столь ответственного направления Государственного департамента нет не единого слова. Интересно: как можно селективно сокращать такой вид вооружений при игнорировании их географического и стратегического фактора, когда американские ядерные боезаряды тактического назначения находятся далеко за пределами Америки и вместе с их авиационными носителями квалифицируются в Пентагоне как средства «передового базирования», а сопоставимые российские вооружения и их носители воздушного базирования – складированы только на территории России?
 
В своем докладе Кристофер Форд оправдывает развертывание на американских подводных ракетоносцах ядерных боезарядов малой мощности, то есть от 5 килотонн и ниже, тем фактором, что это, дескать, не увеличивает общий лимит по американскими СНВ, определенным Договором СНВ-3. Но здесь же он напрочь забывает, что эти новые системы «пониженной мощности» все равно относятся к дестабилизирующим видам СНВ, так как могут быть применимы по любому государству в любое время в инициативном первом ударе.
 
Так в чем же заключается «следующее поколение КНВ» по-американски? Если попытаться найти это в представленном варианте, то никого «нового» подхода к этому процессу нет и в помине. А что есть? Вместо этого выдвинута новая инициатива Вашингтона: «Создание атмосферы для ядерного разоружения» – в сокращении «CEND».
 
К сожалению, не только подходы Государственного департамента США к КНВ, изложенные в распространенном докладе, но и их ядерные, противоракетные, космические и иные военно-стратегические установки, а также огромные военные расходы не создают и никогда не создадут подобной «атмосферы». А «новая» инициатива «CEND» фактически является пропагандистским прикрытием для анти-контроля над вооружениями.
 
 
Автор: Владимир Козин;  Источник: ИА Инфорос

«Новый» подход Вашингтона к контролю над вооружениями: хорошо забытое старое?

28 июля в Женеве состоялись первые по счёту консультации России и США по стратегической стабильности и контролю над вооружениями после вступления Джозефа Байдена в должность президента. Насколько серьёзный настрой имеют американские визави в плане налаживания сконцентрированного и энергичного диалога по стратегической стабильности, как о том условились президенты двух стран на июньском саммите в Швейцарии?

Встреча была организована в развитие договорённостей президентов двух стран начать комплексный диалог по тематике стратегической стабильности, о чём они условились на саммите в Женеве, проведённом в середине июня. Делегации возглавлялись заместителями руководителей внешнеполитических ведомств сторон. Российский МИД сообщил, что заблаговременно передал американским оппонентам предложения по повестке дня консультаций. А американцы? Нет ясности.

До мировой общественности была доведена и цель Москвы в проведённой дискуссии: определить направления для совместной работы на обозначенном направлении, где есть некоторая перспектива. По словам пресс-секретаря президента России Дмитрия Пескова, ключевой задачей диалога по стратегической стабильности с Вашингтоном должна стать выработка «нового уравнения безопасности» с учётом всех значимых факторов, оказывающих влияние на такую стабильность.

«Новое уравнение безопасности»

Российская сторона уточнила, что обозначенная формула должна охватывать все наступательные и оборонительные вооружения в ядерном и неядерном оснащении, способные решать стратегические задачи. Подчёркивалась готовность обменяться мнениями по проблематике противоракетной обороны, обеспечению предсказуемости и сдержанности в ракетно-ядерной сфере в условиях прекращения действия Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности. Обозначалась важность предотвращения гонки вооружений в космосе и влияния дестабилизирующих военных технологий, а также реагирования на кризисные ситуации, которые могут привести к ядерной эскалации. Одним из приоритетов налаживания совместной работы двух государств было названо и потенциальное взаимодействие сторон в области обеспечения кибербезопасности.

Позитивным итогом женевских консультаций было бы и согласование какого-либо календаря последующих встреч такого формата, порядок дальнейших действий сторон или некой «дорожной карты» их позиционного движения вперёд.

Делался акцент на том, что Москва в целом выступает за восстановление системных контактов с Вашингтоном по ключевым вопросам двусторонней и международной повестки дня.

Американской делегации было сообщено, что возможны новые договорённости обязывающего характера и новые понимания в ракетно-ядерной сфере, так как обе стороны подошли вплотную к рубежу, за которым дальнейшее сокращение ядерных арсеналов будет возможно только на многосторонней основе, то есть с учётом ядерных арсеналов Великобритании и Франции.

Помимо вопросов стратегической стабильности и контроля над вооружениями была рассмотрена тема цифровых технологий и безопасности в сфере ИКТ. Российская делегация исходила из того, что эти технологии и возможности в данной сфере могут оказывать воздействие на стратегическую стабильность. Москва считает, что вопросы информационной безопасности, в разных её преломлениях, начиная от применения соответствующих вредоносных программ в преступных целях и заканчивая воздействием из Интернета на объекты критически важной инфраструктуры, требуют углублённого профессионального обсуждения на двусторонней основе. Россия рассчитывает, что диалог с США по кибербезопасности станет регулярным, если будет обсуждаться широкая повестка дня.

Российская сторона назвала встречу в Женеве приземлённой, деловой и сфокусированной, а также осознанной и здравой. Вашингтон оценил прошедшие консультации как профессиональные и содержательные.

Стороны договорились вновь встретиться в сентябре этого года для обсуждения всё той же проблематики.

Без иллюзий

Российская сторона не питала особых иллюзий относительно возможности достижения каких-то прорывных договорённостей по названным двум магистральным и неизменно перспективным направлениям военно-политической дискуссионной повестки дня.

Во-первых, потому что независимо от разного рода дипломатически позитивных заявлений, которые были сделаны официальными представителями сторон до её начала, эта была всё же предварительная встреча с представителями новой администрации от демократической партии США. В российско-американских отношениях ещё не было прецедента, чтобы, как говорят, «за один присест», да ещё и одним махом найти взаимоприемлемые формулировки военно-политического содержания и стратегической стабильности и эффективного контроля над вооружениями на консультациях такого формата.

В российском внешнеполитическом ведомстве прямо заявили, что женевская встреча 28 июля является лишь первым установочным мероприятием, в ходе которого делегация России предполагала понять, насколько серьёзный настрой имеют американские визави в плане налаживания сконцентрированного и энергичного диалога по стратегической стабильности, как о том условились президенты на их июньском саммите в Швейцарии.

Наглядный пример на эту тему из недавнего президентства президента-республиканца Дональда Трампа: на проведённых в период его пребывания пяти консультаций на аналогичные ключевые темы не были достигнуты договорённости ни относительно укрепления стратегической стабильности, ни по выработке новых соглашений хотя бы по одному вопросу обширной и разноплановой проблематики контроля над вооружениями.

Во-вторых, из-за значительных разногласий, которые существуют и до сих пор остаются непреодолёнными между Москвой и Вашингтоном по проблематике стратегической стабильности и контроля над вооружениями, что в одинаковом ключе открыто признают обе стороны.

В-третьих, вследствие явных и долговременных попыток нынешней и всех других предыдущих американских администраций добиться для США односторонних преимуществ в области сокращения вооружений и ограничения военной деятельности за счёт ослабления военного потенциала сначала СССР, а затем и России не путём применения против них военной силы, а исключительно словесным образом за столом переговоров.

Особый упор Вашингтон делал и будет делать на выбивание всех семи перспективных высокоточных гиперзвуковых систем вооружений России.

В-четвёртых, США на самом высшем уровне часто делают заявления о том, что приветствуют обеспечение контроля над вооружениями вместе с Россией. Но при этом неизменно повторяют, что будут наращивать ракетно-ядерный и иной потенциал. Нынешний хозяин Белого дома уточнил, что намерен реагировать на текущие вызовы «с позиции силы». Ни в одном российском военно-политическом документе федерального значения не удастся найти схожее обещание или предупреждение.

В-пятых, на атмосферу любых переговоров между Россией и Соединёнными Штатами негативно влияет сохраняющийся в высших американских эшелонах власти и СМИ фон жёсткого антироссийского настроя и агрессивно-наступательной обвинительной риторики в адрес Российской Федерации и её граждан.

Одновременно отрицательное воздействие на это имеют и разного рода антироссийские торгово-экономические санкции, рейдерские захваты российской дипломатической собственности в Соединённых Штатах, а также иные противоправные акции. Но такой подход не пройдёт. Это хорошо должны усвоить в Вашингтоне.

Степень и масштабы разногласий

Степень и масштабы разногласий сторон как по тематике стратегической стабильности, так и по списку практически всех вопросов контроля над вооружениями не внушают практически особого оптимизма по поводу их устранения на основе взаимных договорённостей.

Да, американская сторона вышла за рамки первоначального толкования термина «стратегическая стабильность», которое она прежде определяла как одинаковую невозможность России и США уничтожить противоположную сторону с помощью первого ядерного удара с использованием стратегических ядерных вооружений. Вашингтон в настоящее время вводит в эту формулировку гораздо больше параметров, которые воздействуют на уровень стратегической стабильности, например, противоракетные, гиперзвуковые, ударно-космические и иные системы наступательных и оборонительных вооружений, правильно характеризуя её имеющей «многодоменный» характер.

Вместе с тем в Вашингтоне уверены, что стратегическая стабильность должна укреплять национальную безопасность исключительно Соединённых Штатов, их союзников по военному блоку НАТО и партнёров, не входящих в его состав. Но не России. И не КНР.

В отличие от этой эгоистической позиции Российская Федерация убеждена, что стратегическая стабильность не может быть односторонней и преследовать узкие цели. В Москве считают, что она должна быть многосторонней, многоплановой и гарантировать безопасность для всех участвующих сторон.

Аналогичная картина создалась и в сфере контроля над вооружениями. Из дюжины направлений, определяющих нынешнее состояние этого процесса в российско-американских отношениях, обе стороны имеют близкие позиции только по одному вопросу: и Россия, и США негативно, хотя и с нюансами, восприняли подготовку международного Договора о запрещении ядерного оружия и его вступление в силу в начале текущего года.

О характере таких разногласий на этом треке говорят следующие данные:

1. Вашингтон нарушает уже продлённый Договор СНВ-3; не вывозит из Европы своё ТЯО (что является нарушением Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия) и не поддерживает российское предложение о введении моратория на развёртывание новых ядерных ракет средней дальности в районах, где они ещё не размещены;

 

- сохраняет военно-стратегические установки нанесения первого ядерного удара и предусматривающей «запуск по предупреждению о ракетном нападении» без надёжной проверки такой информации, в том числе с применением ядерного оружия малой мощности, то есть от 5 килотонн и меньше;

- продолжает практику полётов тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков в небе над Европой и Азией.

2. США расширяют глобальную систему ПРО, не желают прекращать операцию ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» в воздушном пространстве Латвии, Литвы, Польши и Эстонии, в которой задействованы самолёты, способные нести как обычные, так и корректируемые ядерные авиабомбы.

3. Вашингтон не проявляет готовности заключить многосторонний Договор о предотвращении гонки вооружений в космическом пространстве, а также ратифицировать международный Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний и распространить ограничительные положения Соглашения о предотвращении инцидентов на море на подводные лодки сторон в погружённом состоянии.

Консультации идут. А тем временем…

В то время, как будут продолжатся различные консультации сторон по военно-политической проблематике президент Джозеф Байден предлагает, чтобы расходы США на национальные ядерные средства составили около 5,7 % от общего объёма ассигнований на военные цели в размере 753 млрд долларов.

Для сравнения: по оценкам Бюджетного управления Конгресса, продолжение «ядерных» планов администрации Дональда Трампа потребовало бы до 9 % от планов нового президента по общим расходам на национальную оборону в течение следующего десятилетия.

В конце текущего десятилетия расходы США на ядерное оружие могут превысить 10 % от суммарного военного бюджета.

В 2022 финансовом году администрация президента-ставленника демократической партии запрашивает 43,2 млрд долларов для министерства обороны и министерства энергетики на поддержание и модернизацию систем доставки ядерных боезарядов и их вспомогательной инфраструктуры. Это включает в себя 27,7 млрд долларов для Пентагона и 15,5 млрд долларов для полуавтономного Национального управления ядерной безопасности министерства энергетики страны.

Соединённые Штаты продолжат обновление своего ядерного потенциала. Дополнения и запрашиваемые ими суммы финансирования включают:

- 15 млн долларов на разработку новой ядерной крылатой ракеты морского базирования;

- почти 134 млн долларов на продолжение разработки нового боезаряда большой мощности (W 93) для БРПЛ;

- 98,5 млн долларов на продление срока эксплуатации боезаряда B 83-1 мегатонного класса.

Фактически три унаследованные Джозефом Байденом ядерные программы - ракета дальнего радиуса действия воздушного базирования (LRSO), ПЛАРБ нового класса «Колумбия» и новая МБР могут  получить в общей сложности почти на 15 % финансовых вливаний больше, чем планировала предыдущая республиканская администрация. Программы создания качественно новой стратегической триады оцениваются в диапазоне от 100 до 150 млрд долларов (с учётом инфляции и вероятного перерасхода денежных средств), что помещает их в список десяти самых дорогостоящих военных программ Пентагона.

Говорит Москва

К этой информации надо добавить, что в мае этого года Москва обвинила Вашингтон в нарушении Договора СНВ-3, когда Соединённые Штаты превысили его пределы на 111 единиц. Дело в том, что Вашингтон в одностороннем порядке вывел из подсчётов 56 пусковых установок БРПЛ Трайдент-2, 41 тяжёлый бомбардировщик В-52Н и четыре пусковые установки МБР шахтного базирования, отметив, что все эти виды ядерных вооружений были выведены за скобки суммарных подсчётов. Но эти акции не позволяют с уверенностью подтвердить, что названные системы больше не могут выполнять стратегические ядерные задачи.

Простой вопрос: ну и когда же Вашингтон намерен внедрить «новый подход» в сфере контроля над «ядерными» вооружениями? И почему только над ядерными?

Автор: В.П. Козин. Источник: еженедельник “Звезда” 

«Пентагон и Госдеп США нарочито искажают действительность в отношении химического оружия уже давно»

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин принял участие в информационно-аналитической программе «Известия.Главное» на Пятом канале.

Эфир от  6 марта 2021 г.

«План Столтенберга» – план войны XXI века коллективного Запада против России и Китая

Состоявшийся в Мадриде в конце июня очередной саммит НАТО стал самым агрессивным по принятым на нём формулировкам, а также провокационным из-за содержавшихся в его итоговых документах далеко идущих военных планах за всю историю альянса, которому в этом году исполнилось 73 года.

Концепция ядерной агрессивности

Принятые на саммите НАТО два документа определили его дальнейшую военную деятельность на последующие десять или более лет, а также отразили видение альянсом нынешней военно-политической ситуации в мире и роль в нём этого самого крупного военного союза из 30 государств.

Саммит одобрил новую долговременную Стратегическую концепцию альянса из 49 пунктов, которая заменила прежний документ аналогичного формата, озвученный в 2010 году на лиссабонском саммите. Концепция определяет будущую деятельность этого военного пакта. Была также принята итоговая Декларация из 22 пунктов, которая имеет более конъюнктурно-краткосрочный характер и напоминает по формату коммюнике. В ней также подведены основные итоги состоявшейся встречи.

Актуализированная Стратегическая концепция 2022 года нацеливает альянс трансатлантической ориентации на усиление его военной мощи в рамках утверждённой ещё десять лет тому назад на саммите этого военного союза в американском Чикаго «чикагской триады», то есть постоянно действующего комбинированного механизма в виде тесно взаимодействующих друг с другом в режиме реального времени ракетно-ядерных сил, противоракетных систем и сил общего назначения, часть которых относится к средствам передового базирования относительно России и Беларуси.

НАТО является ядерным альянсом до тех пор, пока на планете останется ядерное оружие. В этом военном союзе в качестве ядерных держав представлены США, Великобритания и Франция. Повторена формулировка предыдущих саммитов о том, что альянс может применить ядерное оружие, но обстоятельства, которые позволили бы пойти на такой шаг, являются весьма отдалёнными. И одновременно подтверждается приверженность стратегии ядерного сдерживания, которая предусматривает нанесение первого ядерного удара. В частности, американская ракетно-ядерная стратегия определяет 14 подобных оснований.

НАТО является ядерным альянсом до тех пор, пока на планете останется ядерное оружие. В этом военном союзе в качестве ядерных держав представлены США, Великобритания и Франция. Повторена формулировка предыдущих саммитов о том, что альянс может применить ядерное оружие, но обстоятельства, которые позволили бы пойти на такой шаг, являются весьма отдалёнными. И одновременно подтверждается приверженность стратегии ядерного сдерживания, которая предусматривает нанесение первого ядерного удара. В частности, американская ракетно-ядерная стратегия определяет 14 подобных оснований.

Остаются в силе двусторонние соглашения «о совместных ядерных миссиях» («о разделении ядерной ответственности»), заключённые между Вашингтоном и неядерными странами-членами альянса. Такие договорённости предоставляют американской стороне право размещать собственное ядерное оружие на территории пяти неядерных государств союза и проводить учения с условным применением такого оружия воздушного базирования с гораздо большим количеством натовских союзников, что нарушает положения международного Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия. Стратегические наступательные ядерные вооружения будут по-прежнему обеспечивать ядерный зонтик всем союзникам по альянсу.

Применительно к космосу и киберпространству поставлена задача обеспечить «беспрепятственный доступ» к обоим средам, причём с оговоркой: на них будет распространено положение статьи пятой Вашингтонского договора о создании НАТО, которая предусматривает коллективную оборону по принципу «один за всех и все за одного». Решено создать и применять «виртуальный киберпотенциал быстрого реагирования».

Подчёркнута необходимость усовершенствования систем ПВО и ПРО. Будет достроена операционная база ПРО США в Польше, которая дополнит аналогичную структуру, уже поставленную на боевое дежурство в Румынии. И та, и другая будут иметь комбинированный характер, то есть загружать не только оборонительные системы «противоракетного щита», но и наступательные виды вооружений в виде крылатых ракет. На два боевых корабля будет увеличен состав группировки ВМС США с БИУС «Иджис», постоянно находящихся на военно-морской базе Рота на юге Испании в составе четырёх эсминцев с управляемым ракетным оружием.

Саммит поддержал первоначальные предложения стран-членов альянса относительно «новой модели сил» НАТО, которые укрепят и модернизируют структуру вооружённых сил блока и обеспечат ресурсами его «военные планы нового поколения». Такая «модель», которая будут введена в действие в следующем году, предусматривает развёртывание стотысячной группировки вооружённых сил НАТО в течение 10 дней, а пятисоттысячной - в переделах 30-180 дней.

В частности, в Европе для этих целей будет увеличено количество военных объектов для предварительного складирования военной техники и боеприпасов, в также ГСМ.

Резко возрастёт огневая мощь и личный состав Сил быстрого развёртывания Североатлантического союза, которые увеличат свой контингент с 40 тысяч до 300 тысяч человек. При этом надо иметь в виду, что на европейском континенте уже находятся 100 тысяч американских военнослужащих.

Восточный вал НАТО

Страны-члены НАТО обязались развернуть на своём восточном фланге «дополнительные мощные боеготовые силы на местах, наращиваемые за счёт существующих боевых групп до подразделений уровня бригады, там, где и когда возникнет необходимость, на основе убедительных быстро доступных подкреплений, заблаговременно размещённой техники и усовершенствованной системы командования и управления».

В Восточной Европе у границ с Беларусью и Россией вместо четырёх боевых групп появятся постоянно действующие бригады - уже в количестве восьми. Возрастёт количество истребителей-бомбардировщиков «двойного назначения», то есть способных нести на борту не только обычные, но и ядерные авиабомбы.

Все они принимают участие в постоянно действующей операции ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», которая проводится с 2004 года в небе Латвии, Литвы, Польши и Эстонии. Усилится авиационный парк истребителей-бомбардировщиков НАТО, задействованных в рамках другой операции аналогичной функциональной направленности, - операции «Балканское воздушное патрулирование», регулярно проводимой в воздушном пространстве Болгарии и Румынии, в том числе за счёт приобретения новейших американских истребителей-бомбардировщиков F-35, способных нести ядерное оружие.

Имеющими стратегическое значение объявлены западные Балканы и район Чёрного моря.

Участники встречи на высшем уровне подтвердили приверженность обязательству об оборонных инвестициях в полном объёме и военных расходах в пределах «по меньшей мере» до двух процентов от национальных ВВП к 2024 году и выделение до 20 процентов на новые виды вооружений. В следующем году будет принято решение о последующих обязательствах в этой области, которые охватят период, начинающийся после 2024 года. Пока на такой уровень вышла только одна треть государств этого военного союза, несмотря на аналогичный призыв, содержащийся в решениях предыдущих саммитов.

Россия исконный, КНР новоявленный - враги НАТО

Мадридский саммит затронул отношения трансатлантического военного блока с Россией и КНР, причём в последнем случае - впервые затронутые персонально в концептуально стратегическом документе трансатлантического военного союза.

Голословно, то есть бездоказательно, заявлено, что Российская Федерация является «наиболее серьёзной и прямой угрозой безопасности членов НАТО и миру и стабильности в евроатлантическом регионе» и что альянс будет продолжать противодействовать «российским угрозам», которые перечислены в общем виде, то есть без привязки к нашей стране (кибернетические, космические, гибридные и другие ассиметричные угрозы, а также связанные «со злонамеренным использованием развивающихся и прорывных технологий»).

Признано, что альянс имеет дело с системной конкуренцией со стороны государственных субъектов, включая Китайскую Народную Республику, «которые бросают вызов его интересам, безопасности и ценностям, а также стремятся подорвать основанный на правилах международный порядок».

Резкой критике Китая посвящён целый отдельный пункт. Он обвиняется в проведении гибридно-кибернетических операций, конфронтационной риторики и ослаблении безопасности альянса, а также подрыве международного порядка посредством «углубляющегося стратегического партнёрства с Россией».

Пекин традиционно обвинён в расширении ядерного арсенала и разработке наиболее усовершенствованных средств его доставки, а также в уклонении от ведения переговоров по контролю над вооружениями.

КНР резко отреагировала на подобные выпады. НАТО представляет собой «системный вызов миру и стабильности», заявил официальный представитель китайского МИД Чжао Лицзянь, комментируя новую Стратегическую концепцию альянса. По его словам, этот документ игнорирует факты, выдаёт чёрное за белое, упорно придерживается неуместного позиционирования системных вызовов Китаю, дискредитирует его внешнюю политику и выступает против его нормального военного развития и политики национальной обороны. Это поощряет конфронтацию, полную мышления времён холодной войны и идеологических предрассудков. «Китай серьёзно обеспокоен этим и решительно выступает против этого», - заявил китайский дипломат.

Украина: «оперативная совместимость»

Оба итоговых документа мадридской встречи в верхах уделили заметное внимание поставкам вооружений и военной техники ультра-националистическому украинскому режиму, несмотря на то, что за восьмилетний период проведения им политики геноцида в Донбассе было убито свыше 13 тысяч и ранено 34 тысячи человек. Практически ежедневные убийства там мирных граждан американо-натовским оружием продолжаются. Такое не забывается и не прощается.

Подобные поставки документами саммита не ограничены ни в количественном, ни в качественном измерении. Не имеют они и каких-то временных рамок, которые определяли бы предельные сроки их направления для продолжения третьей по счёту масштабной вооружённой агрессии Киева против граждан Донбасса.

Каждодневные варварские обстрелы украинской военщиной населённых пунктов ДНР и ЛНР, где проживают мирные граждане, с применением тяжёлых видов вооружений, ведущиеся после 24 февраля этого года, являются дополнительным обоснованием целесообразности начала нашей военной спецоперации по защите населения Донбасса от украинского геноцида и военных преступлений. И не Москва начала агрессию против Киева, как утверждается в мадридской декларации, а именно Украина по сути дела не прекращала третьей по счёту вооружённой агрессии против ДНР и ЛНР, начатой в 2015 году и резко усилившейся в середине февраля текущего года.

В Стратегической концепции лживо утверждается, что поставляемые украинскому милитаристскому режиму вооружения, якобы, носят «оборонительный и несмертоносный» характер. Интересно, с каких это пор дальнобойные гаубицы или реактивные системы залпового огня, которыми коллективный Запад снабжает преступный киевский режим, стали вдруг исключительно «оборонительными и несмертоносными» видами вооружений?

Обращает на себя внимание появление в Стратегической концепции 2022 года термина «оперативная совместимость», которым будут руководствоваться вооружённые силы НАТО и Украины в своих взаимоотношениях. Такой термин уже давно используется в основополагающих документах трансатлантического союза как выражение, под которым понимается слаженное и документально описанное в деталях оперативное взаимодействие сил и средств стран-участниц, а также их командно-штабных структур в учебной и боевой обстановке.

Означает ли это, что официально не вступая в альянс в настоящее время, Украина фактически будет являться привилегированным партнёром блока и поддерживать с ним тесные военно-политические и военно-технические связи, а также постепенно перейдёт на натовские системы вооружений и на военные наставления альянса? Считаю, что означает.

Словно в насмешку призывам отдельных государств мира, высказывающихся за урегулирование украинского конфликта скорейшим образом на основе территориальных уступок той части Украины, которая в историческом плане никогда ей не принадлежала, президент Джозеф Байден объявил об очередном, двенадцатом по счёту, транше поставок Киеву новой партии тяжёлых видов вооружений и военной техники на сумму в 800 млн долларов.

Этому дряхлеющему старцу, страдающему глубокой деменцией и карикатурной манией величия, видимо, всё равно, сколько ещё мирных граждан Донбасса погибнет от американского, якобы, «несмертоносного и оборонительного» оружия. Соединённые Штаты, объявившие и Донбассу, и России необъявленную войну, являются реальной империей зла, широко поддерживающей собственный и украинский государственный терроризм. За время своего безнравственного и скандального президентства Байден уже инициировал такие поставки бандеровцам на общую сумму в 7 млрд долларов. Вероятно, это ещё не предел. В этой связи вполне очевидно, что нам нужно перекрывать каналы таких поставок на дальних и ближних подступах, действуя решительно и одновременно при пересечении подобных грузов украинской границы, в зонах их складирования и на боевых позициях.

К Североатлантическому Азиатско-Тихоокеанскому альянсу?

Мадридский саммит вновь подтвердил приверженность НАТО политике открытых дверей, усилив это оговоркой, что другие государства, не входящие в альянс, не имеют права препятствовать реализации такого принципа. Его участники договорились о подписании Протоколов о присоединении Швеции и Финляндии к альянсу в ускоренном порядке, которые должны быть утверждены высшими законодательными органами всех государств-членов Североатлантического союза без исключения.

На саммит были впервые приглашены главы государств и правительств Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона: Австралии, Новой Зеландии, Республики Корея и Японии, а также высокопоставленные представители Грузии, Украины, Швеции и Финляндии, с которыми военно-политическое руководство НАТО во главе с Соединёнными Штатами уже давно проводит двусторонний и многосторонний диалог по укреплению региональной безопасности.

Складывается впечатление, что такой обмен мнениями, очевидно, призван создать у них негативное восприятие политики Российской Федерации и Китайской Народной Республики в глобальном масштабе и в региональном измерении. На саммите прозвучала формулировка о ценности взаимного сотрудничества НАТО с указанной выше азиатской четвёркой, приглашённой на саммит, в противодействии неким «общим вызовам безопасности».

Участие Австралии, Новой Зеландии, Республики Корея и Японии в натовском мероприятии было расценено в позитивной тональности, но пока без фиксации каких-то взаимных обязательств: в итоговую Декларацию была включена лишь формулировка о ценности сотрудничества «в противодействии общим вызовам безопасности». Но такие общие вызовы не детализировались. Тем не менее практика приучения названных государств к общению с высшими натовскими военно-политическими структурами, похоже, началась.

Краткие итоги и выводы

Если обозначить итоги встречи глав государств и правительств в испанской столице, то в кратком виде их можно свести к пяти ключевым элементам.

Саммит открыто квалифицировал Россию и КНР в качестве государств, представляющих, как было заявлено, открытую угрозу Североатлантическому союзу.

Встреча в верхах сделала твёрдую заявку на дальнейшее усиление военной машины альянса, в особенности его Сил быстрого реагирования, а также на предварительное сосредоточение значительных вооружённых сил в качестве средств передового базирования.

Саммит провозгласил более широкую милитаризацию национальных экономик входящих в него государств.

Мадридский форум обязал все государства-члены НАТО повысить уровень своих военных расходов и вклад в бюджет организации.

Проведённая встреча на высшем уровне обозначила твёрдую готовность к последующему расширению списочного состава организации не только за счёт принятия в свои ряды двух новых европейских государств, но и в перспективе ряда других стран. Складывается впечатление, что в какой-то перспективе ими могут оказаться некоторые страны Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона.

Хотя в принятых документах саммита традиционно утверждается, что НАТО является оборонительным союзом, вся практическая деятельность его существования доказывает обратное. Он был, есть и впредь будет являться военным блоком с глобальными имперскими амбициями наступательного характера.

Разумеется, что из состоявшегося саммита в России будут сделаны соответствующие военно-политические и военно-технические выводы прикладного характера. Представляется целесообразным провести специальный саммит стран-участниц ОДКБ с принципиальной оценкой этого мероприятия и в закрытом режиме рассмотреть практические способы по консолидации мер противодействия новоявленной угрозе со стороны НАТО. Нет сомнения и в том, что мадридский саммит станет предметом обстоятельного обмена мнениями между Москвой и Пекином в самое ближайшее время.

Очередной саммит государств этого военного блока будет проведён в Вильнюсе в следующем году.

Автор: Владимир Козин. Источник: Еженедельник "Звезда"

 

«Противостояние: Россия – Запад»

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "ОТРажение" на канале ОТР


В.П. Козин: Важно отметить не только количество или качество проведения натовских вооружений и зону их охвата,  но и учитывать то, что НАТО вообще сконцентрировали на восточном фланге.  Это с их стороны, с точки зрения их географического подхода, 40 тысяч человек сил быстрого реагирования НАТО, 100 тысяч американских солдат, которые разбросаны по всем натовским государствам на европейской территории, 130 самолетов НАТО и 140 боевых кораблей различных классов, включая несколько авианосных соединений в зоне Средиземного моря и в северной части Атлантики. Поэтому трагедии для нас особой нет, но мы должны, в отличие от прошлых лет, когда отношения между Россией и НАТО были в целом, условно скажем, на тройку по пятибалльной системе, мы должны сейчас обращать особое внимание на характер этих учений.


Эфир от 4 мая 2022г.

Источник: Общественное телевидение России

 

«Расследование преступлений американских военных против мирного населения» (в САР)

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин принял участие в программе «Специальный репортаж» на телеканале «Вести 24».

Сопутствующие потери – именно так называют американцы гибель мирных жителей и уничтожение гражданского имущества во военных операций. Сотрудники Фонда исследования проблем демократии собрали доказательства военных преступлений международной коалиции во главе с США в Сирии. В ходе специальной экспедиции удалось опросить более 200 сирийских граждан, которые пострадали от бомбардировок по мирным кварталам. Подробности – в специальном репортаже Александра Лукьянова.

Эфир от  6 марта 2021 г.

«Торговцы смертью» продолжают жировать

Коллективный Запад во главе с США намерен накачивать киевский режим оружием и дальше, чтобы тот сопротивлялся «до последнего украинца».

США и союзные им западные страны стремятся максимально затянуть события на Украине, использовать их для ослабления Российской Федерации. Нарастающие объёмы поставок иностранного вооружения наглядно демонстрируют их намерения провоцировать киевский режим воевать «до последнего украинца». О том, как организована Западом поставка Украине вооружений и военной техники и к чему она ведёт, говорится в интервью, которое дал нашей газете известный политолог и военный аналитик Владимир Козин – ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД РФ, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук.

– Владимир Петрович, коллективный Запад закачивает на Украину оружие уже не первый год…

– Всё началось вскоре после дезинтеграции Советского Союза. Тогда, три десятка лет назад, в руководящих военно-политических кругах НАТО всё чаще стал проявляться интерес к созданию вокруг Российской Федерации пояса недружественных ей государств из числа бывших советских республик. Наиболее перспективными кандидатами стали государства Балтии, а также Украина, где давно бытовали и даже активно и целенаправленно поощрялись сначала антисоветские, а затем и антироссийские настроения. С приходом к власти в Киеве в результате кровавого переворота, осуществлённого опять-таки при прямой поддержке Запада, ультра-националистических сил, эта задача прибрела конкретные очертания. Американцы и их ближайшие союзники стали накачивать вооружённые силы Украины военной техникой, целенаправленно готовить их личный состав к войне с Россией.

Поначалу ВСУ не поставлялись тяжёлые виды вооружений. Ещё в этом феврале поставки ограничивались противотанковыми видами вооружений, переносными средствами ПВО, стрелковым оружием различного типа. Затем стали поставляться боевые бронированные машины, артиллерийские системы и миномёты натовского образца. Наращивание поставок вооружений от подавляющего числа государств-членов НАТО идёт как по пути увеличения и расширения объёма таких поставок, так и по линии повышения качества направляемых вооружений и военной техники.

– Какие государства являются наиболее активными поставщиками вооружений Украине?

– Начиная с 24 февраля в суммарном денежном выражении общий объём поставок уже превысил 6 млрд долларов. Если говорить о конкретных странах, то по видам направляемых Украине вооружений и по объёмам поставок в денежном выражении первое место принадлежит, естественно, Соединённым Штатам. После вступления в должность в январе 2021 года президент Байден запросил у конгресса в общей сложности 2,3 млрд долларов на эти цели, из которых 1,6 млрд долларов были выделены уже после 24 февраля.

Практически не отстаёт от США и Великобритания. Наряду с поставками ВСУ оружия она также усиленно готовила силовые структуры Украины к его применению. Всего подготовку прошли свыше 20 тысяч украинских военнослужащих. Великобритания потратила на это свыше 61 млн фунтов стерлингов.

В накачивании военных мускулов Украины активно участвует и Евросоюз, который традиционно считался торгово-экономическим, финансовым и политическим альянсом, но теперь обрёл и военное измерение. Он стал щедрым поставщиком вооружений Украине, выделив на эти цели 1,5 млрд евро, то есть фактически превратился в военный филиал НАТО. Странно видеть в списке поставщиков военного снаряжения и некоторые внеблоковые государства. Они также погнались за «оружейной наживой».

– Кстати, о наживе. Нельзя не обратить внимание на то, что поставки вооружений Украине приносят их производителям немалые прибыли…

– Совершенно верно. США и их союзники, создавая и затягивая украинский конфликт, кроме геополитических целей решают и задачи по перевооружению своих стран на более современное оружие, в чём прежде всего заинтересованы военно-промышленные компании, получающие от этого огромные дивиденды. Подтверждением тому стало, например, недавнее совещание, которое провёл Эндрю Хантер, исполнявший обязанности заместителя министра обороны США по закупкам и материально-техническому обеспечению. На нём, судя по сообщениям информагентств, обсуждались пути увеличения производственных мощностей для «оружия и оборудования, которые можно быстро экспортировать, развёртывать с минимальной подготовкой и доказывать свою эффективность в боевых действиях». В совещании приняли участие представители «Локхид Мартин», «Нортроп грумман», «Боинг» и других ведущих компаний американского военно-промышленного комплекса.

Вашингтон также предложил некоторым европейским союзникам по НАТО, которые уменьшили запасы национальных вооружений в результате передачи военной техники ВСУ, оплачивать поставки американского оружия путём их финансирования из собственных бюджетов. Цель Белого дома ясна – позволить своему ВПК нажиться в ещё большей степени на событиях, к которым он подтолкнул киевские власти.

– Что отличает поставки оружия для ВСУ в эти дни?

– Судя по заявлениям представителей военных ведомств США и их союзников, там пришли к выводу, что тех видов вооружений и военной техники, которыми до предела насыщены вооружённые силы Украины, недостаточно для продолжения кровопролития. Поэтому в новых пакетах военной помощи произошли существенные изменения – кроме очередной порции противотанковых ракет и стрелкового оружия на поле боя отправляются артиллерия, боевые машины пехоты, барражирующие боеприпасы, вертолёты. Так, США заявили о поставках 18 155-мм гаубиц М-198 или более современных М-777 с максимальной дальностью стрельбы соответственно 25 и 32 км, а также 40 тысяч снарядов к ним, 300 единиц ударных дронов-«камикадзе» «Свичблэйд», 11 вертолётов Ми-17 и 200 гусеничных БТР М-113.

В Пентагоне признали, что разрабатывают варианты обучения украинских военных работе с конкретными видами западной военной техники. Учить обращаться с ними американцы будут в Польше и других странах восточного фланга НАТО. Пентагон также намерен увеличить передачу разведданных для украинской стороны.

Европейские союзники Вашингтона также отправляют украинцам танки, ракетную и ствольную артиллерию, дальнобойные системы ПВО и противокорабельные ракеты. Все эти поставки призваны, как подчёркивается в сообщениях об этих оружейных вливаниях, повысить мобильность украинской армии, её способность проводить наступательные действия.

Украина получила, кроме того, в качестве военной помощи комплектующие и запасные части к авиатехнике. По словам пресс-секретаря Пентагона Джона Кирби, это позволит ВСУ, как он выразился, «поднять в воздух больше самолётов». Кирби утверждал, что сейчас Киев располагает большим числом практически действующих боевых самолётов, чем две недели назад.

– А осознают ли в тех странах, которые накачивают Украину всевозможным оружием, к чему это ведёт?

– К сожалению, пока нет. Эта тема редко всплывает на международных дискуссионных площадках, в публичных выступлениях западных экспертов, а также в западных СМИ. Они проявляют странную снисходительность к действиям украинской стороны, которые можно расценить как военные преступления. Лишь на днях, 18 апреля, «Нью-Йорк Таймс» в критическом ключе обратила внимание на использование в марте украинскими военными кассетных боеприпасов, которыми оснащены РСЗО «Ураган», против мирных жителей Гусаровки – одного из населённых пунктов Украины. А в ООН и ОБСЕ вообще игнорируют многократное применение кассетных боеприпасов, установленных на баллистических ракетах «Точка-У», против мирных граждан Донбасса, объектов его жилой и иной социальной инфраструктуры.

– Известно, что российская сторона направила ноты протеста иностранным поставщикам вооружений Киеву…

– Да, это так. Направленные МИД России названным государствам дипломатические ноты протеста против таких поставок говорят о серьёзности намерений российской стороны поставить прочный заслон на пути подобных поставок вооружений и военной техники. Москва неоднократно предупреждала о том, что натовские транспорты с оружием, следующие по украинской территории, она вправе рассматривать в качестве законных военных целей.

Беседовал Владимир Кузарь, Источник: «Красная звезда»

«Триатлон» к новой безопасности: уроки плюс симметричный и асимметричный ответ

Организованные в период с 9 по 13 января наступившего года в Женеве, Брюсселе и Вене раздельные встречи высокопоставленных российских дипломатических и военных представителей с делегациями США и тридцатью странами-участницами НАТО, а также с пятьюдесятью семью государствами, представленными в ОБСЕ, не привели к конструктивным и предметным договорённостям.

Беспрецедентная, но предсказуемая реакция Запада на инициативы России

Это произошло из-за нежелания оппонентов сделать радикальный поворот на двух магистральных направлениях: во-первых, обеспечить европейскую и глобальную безопасность на принципиально новом военно-политическом фундаменте и, во-вторых, вывести из глубокого тупика отношения России с многими из участвующих в проведённых дискуссиях государств, которые завели их в столь безнадёжное состояние.

Вынесенная в заголовок фраза «уроки» состоявшегося обмена мнениями, который потребовал в общей сложности свыше 15 часов дискуссионного времени, использована здесь не случайно. Итоги всех трёх контактов с представителями США и НАТО были, соответственно, подробно изложены заместителями министра иностранных дел России Сергеем Рябковым и Александром Грушко, а также постоянным представителем России при ОБСЕ Александром Лукашевичем. Все российские дипломаты провели часовые брифинги, ответили на многочисленные вопросы журналистов.

Тройка российских представителей обстоятельно раскрыла причины выдвижения многовекторной инициативы о гарантиях безопасности, ход проведённых дискуссий и основные возражения дискутантов с противоположной стороны. К сожалению, на предложенные Москвой сбалансированные развязки, все они ответили в негативном ключе или постным молчанием.

Точки зрения каждого из трёх российских представителей с оценкой произошедшего совпали. Если в кратком виде, то Сергей Рябков отметил, что главные вопросы по-прежнему остаются «в подвешенном состоянии». Александр Грушко признал, что состоявшийся разговор выявил «расхождения по большому числу фундаментальных вопросов». Александр Лукашевич выразил «разочарование» по поводу подхода к рассмотрению российских инициатив на площадке ОБСЕ, где выступило меньше половины государств-участников, да и то в основном в порядке комментирования плана польского председательства в этой структуре на текущий год.

Россия серьёзно озабочена стремлением стран альянса понизить потолок применения ядерного оружия. Она остаётся в списке государств, по которым может быть нанесён первый удар ядерными силами США стратегического и тактического назначения в любое время и под любым предлогом при поддержке их ядерных союзников в лице Великобритании и Франции.


В рамках прошедшего в январе внешнеполитического «триатлона» Вашингтон и штаб-квартира НАТО не дали России гарантий:

1) прекращения полётов американской тяжёлой стратегической авиации вблизи территории России;

2) полного вывоза американского тактического ядерного оружия из Европы и Азии;

3) неразвёртывания в Европе новых корректируемых ядерных авиабомб США В61-12, которые в мае этого года будут завезены в Италию;

4) прекращения размещения комбинированных оборонительно-наступательных систем ПРО США наземного базирования в Европе и морского базирования вокруг неё в прилегающих морях;

5) свёртывания операции ВВС НАТО в районе Балтийского и Чёрного морей с использованием самолётов «двойного назначения», то есть сертифицированных под доставку обычных и ядерных видов вооружений.


Не выполнено и другое ключевое положение российских предложений - прекратить приближать силы общего назначения Североатлантического союза к территории России, в особенности, авиационных и бронетанковых сил, а также понизить их состав до планки 1997 года.

Каковы же уроки из обмена мнениями, который по своей остроте и по охвату предложенных Москвой к рассмотрению основополагающих вопросов стратегического характера не имеет прецедентов в истории послевоенной Европы?

Уроки плюс: по меньшей мере - их шесть

Урок первый

Отказ руководства США и Североатлантического союза выстраивать архитектуру европейской безопасности исключительно на базе собственных геополитических клише и агрессивных военно-политических установок означает, что курс на основательный подрыв национальной безопасности и обороноспособности Российской Федерации остаётся у них неизменным. Эта задача давно решается и впредь будет решаться альянсом путём создания перманентной дуги военной напряжённости вдоль территории России. Подобный замысел Вашингтона и НАТО имеет далекоидущую цель: полностью обеспечить исключительно для самих себя одностороннюю и неравновеликую безопасность.

В этом контексте вызывает удивление, что на специальном заседании Постоянного совета ОБСЕ в Вене не выступили представители Франции как ядерной державы, а также Италии и ФРГ, которые размещают американское тактическое ядерное оружие на своей территории с середины 50-х годов прошлого века. Никто из западных участников встречи не выдвинул никаких идей о том, какой реальный вклад эта организация может внести в дело укрепления безопасности на евроатлантическом пространстве, то есть выполнить свой прямой мандат. ОБСЕ так и не смогла добиться прекращения огня украинской стороной в зоне соприкосновения в Донбассе.

Урок второй

Деструктивный курс руководства США и Североатлантического союза в отношении России свидетельствует о продолжении ими политики холодной войны в виде её качественно новой версии «2.0», которая, несмотря на укоренившееся у многих российских политиков мнение о её полном окончании после принятия в 1990 году Парижской хартии «Для новой Европы», уже не первый год разгорается в наиболее драматическом измерении. Да, прекратилась первая фаза холодной войны, но её сменила другая, ещё более опасная форма - «более холодная война».

В чём «более холодная война» проявляется?

Реалистически мыслящие аналитики считают, что такая война проявляется:

  • в разрушении ведущими странами Запада практически всей материальной основы многовекторного процесса контроля над вооружениями, которая создавалась с большим трудом усилиями многих государств Европы в течение десятилетий;
  • в стремлении трансатлантического альянса к окружению России комбинированными видами современных видов вооружений «передового базирования» во всех пространственных средах и в основном наступательного характера, а также с прицелом на обеспечение военного превосходства НАТО над российским оборонным потенциалом;
  • в принятии жёстких и нелигитимных торгово-экономических санкций против России, а также в отношении её отдельных представителей;
  • в широкой и грубой фальсификации исторического прошлого и искажении современного мирового развития;
  • в целенаправленном и перманентном культивировании антироссийских настроений и образа постоянного врага в лице России.

Суждение о том, что холодная война, якобы, давно прекращена дезориентирует сторонников устранения её негативных последствий и прекращения их проецирования в будущее.

Урок третий

Он заключается в недвусмысленно выраженном на встречах в Женеве и Брюсселе стремлении Соединённых Штатов и НАТО продолжать практику неограниченного расширения членского состава этого и без того крупнейшего в мире военного блока, который распространил свою «зону военной ответственности» на весь земной шар. Принятие в его ряды новых членов, в том числе такого ультранационалистического государства как Украина или такой страны как Грузия, имеющей территориальные претензии, означает дальнейшее распространение наступательных военно-стратегических установок альянса на новые регионы мира.

В штаб-квартире НАТО, расположенной в брюссельском районе Эвере, открыто говорят не только о двух названных государствах как ближайших членах Североатлантического пакта. Без обиняков заявляют и о возможности включения в его состав традиционно нейтральных Швеции и Финляндии, граждане которых целенаправленно обрабатываются в атмосфере натоцентризма. После проведения заседания Совета Россия-НАТО 12 января генеральный секретарь альянса прямо заявил, что от Стокгольма и Хельсинки потребуется только подать свои заявления о приёме.

Подобная позиция с элементом приглашения говорит о том, что данный вопрос в руководстве НАТО, видимо, уже проработан. Именно в позитивном ключе. Весьма вероятно, что приём в альянс всех или какой-то части из названных выше государств может состояться на его саммите в Мадриде в июне наступившего года.

К сожалению, это объективно повлечёт за собой дальнейшее понижение уровня европейской безопасности и, наоборот, повысит степень и без того избыточной планки конфронтационности и враждебности.

Это будет означать, что и в других районах густонаселённой Европы будет продолжено размещение ударного американского ракетно-ядерного и противоракетного оружия за пределами континентальной части Соединённых Штатов, произойдёт расширение масштабов военных учений и манёвров НАТО в непосредственной близости от российских рубежей и сохранение их явной антироссийской направленности.

Это также приведёт к гипертрофированной милитаризации социально-экономической жизни в государствах, которые впервые присоединятся к этому военному союзу. Они неизбежно будут вовлечены в региональные конфликты, где в обязательном порядке потребуются их военные контингенты, их заставят резко повысить военные расходы. На саммите альянса в июне 2018 года президент США Дональд Трамп уже пытался поставить вопрос о повышении доли военных ассигнований всех членов НАТО после 2024 года с двух до четырёх процентов от их ВВП. Тогда его не поддержали многие государства этого военного пакта, но не исключено, что намеченный рубеж будет обозначен вновь.

Урок четвёртый

В ходе дискуссий, проведённых в Женеве и Брюсселе, американским и натовским представителям удалось навязать слишком широкие дебаты на тему «эскалации ситуации» на российско-украинской границе, адресуя требование о её «деэскалации» только Москве. Вновь прозвучали обвинения в адрес российской стороны в «намечающемся в самое ближайшее время вторжении её вооружённых сил на Украину», размещённых, якобы, целью «совершения агрессии». На обсуждение этой искусственно раздутой проблемы в Брюсселе было использовано полтора часа из четырёх часов дискуссии.


Раздутый вопрос о «деэскалации»

Но по справедливости, не Россия должна принять меры по «деэскалации ситуации» на российско-украинской границе, а Украина на своей территории, поскольку именно она первой сосредоточила значительные вооружённые силы в районе границ с Беларусью, Донбассом и Россией. Поэтому именно Украина должна отвести их первой из названных районов. В интересах создания объективной оценки военного присутствия по обе стороны государственной границы было бы справедливо распространить в СМИ до начала январских встреч в трёх столицах фотографии, сделанные из космоса, которые показали бы реальное и массированное расположение значительных контингентов ВСУ в трёх указанных районах.


В интересах обеспечения реальной военной деэскалации напряжённости в этой части европейского континента нынешнее военно-политическое руководство в Киеве должно дать письменные гарантии неиспользования вооружённых сил страны и ЧВК против граждан и территории ДНР и ЛНР, а также реально выполнять все положения известных минских договорённостей. С целью реальной деэскалации ситуации в регионе Соединённые Штаты должны гарантированно прекратить поставлять Украине смертоносные виды вооружений как в настоящее время, так и в будущем, а Киев - дать обязательство не проводить военные учения близ зоны соприкосновения с Донбассом с использованием ударных авиационных средств всех видов, ударных дронов и любых тяжёлых видов вооружений.

Урок пятый

С точки зрения реальности у России нет «партнёров» или «коллег» в лице США и НАТО после выхода Вашингтона из Договора по ПРО в 2002 году и отказа от отношений «стратегического партнёрства» с Россией после лиссабонского саммита альянса одиннадцать лет назад. Для определения военно-политического лица российских «визави» имеются другие подобающие дефиниции, например, «оппоненты», «сторона» или «стороны».

Использование терминов «партнёры» или «коллеги» в этом контексте давно должно было быть прекращено в российском политическом лексиконе на всех уровнях. Поскольку такие слова дезориентируют российских граждан, наших союзников, партнёров и друзей за рубежом, которых у Российской Федерации за её пределами ещё осталось немало. Такими терминами затушевываются военные приготовления и военные провокации Соединённых Штатов и НАТО против Российской Федерации. Подобные термины создают у реально партнёрских с ней государств, например, в БРИКС, ОДКБ и ШОС, ложное представление, что Москва выступает за проведение «партнёрской политики» даже с государствами, которые враждебно относятся к ней.

Урок шестой

На одном из брифингов с российской стороны было признано, что критический настрой России к крупным военно-стратегическим выпадам со стороны США и НАТО в адрес её национальной обороноспособности и безопасности раньше также имел место, но не в таком объёме как сейчас, а демонстрировался где-то на втором плане. В российском МИД на днях также признали, что Россия прежде слишком долго «запрягала», чтобы выйти с подобными демаршами.

Избыточно-оптимистические ожидания с российской стороны в данном контексте представляются иррациональными, поскольку они вызывают у её оппонентов убеждение, что их военно-силовая и иная политика давления на Москву с их точки зрения является правильной и может быть продолжена.

Разговор в Брюсселе ещё раз подтвердил, что НАТО понимает один из ключевых вопросов повестки дня - принцип неделимости безопасности - избирательно. То есть, что она существует только для её членов. Москва же считает, что попытки создать безопасность против России и без её участия, являются контрпродуктивными.

Ответ России будет. С учётом и письменной реакции Запада

Вполне очевидно, что Россия должна отвечать твёрдо и принципиально каждый раз, если в будущем какие-то враждебные действия натовских визави во главе с США будут направлены на подрыв её национальной безопасности и обороны.

Пресс-секретарь президента Дмитрий Песков 14 января сообщил, что глава государства Владимир Путин уже проинформирован об итогах проведённых встреч в трёх европейских столицах, но окончательный анализ будет сделан после того, как противоположная сторона направит свои письменные ответы на изложенные инициативы. Глава российского МИД Сергей Лавров напомнил, что Москву интересует реакция США и НАТО на каждую статью из предложенных ею проектов документов по гарантиям безопасности.

В случае, если же американское руководство и руководители Североатлантического союза повторят в своих письменных ответах негативную реакцию на предложения России, то у Москвы останется только один-единственный путь: на продолжение натовской политики сдерживания Россия перейдёт на политику контрсдерживания; если они будут искать какие-то уязвимости в системе обороны Российской Федерации, то и она найдёт уязвимости в их оборонной структуре. На перманентное развёртывание ими средств передового базирования у российских рубежей Россия ответит размещением собственных средств передового базирования у территории США и стран-членов НАТО. А также использует кое-что ещё.

Иными словами, это будет одновременно симметричный и асимметричный ответ российской стороны на негативный ответ её «заклятых партнёров».

Автор: Владимир Козин, член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН. Источник: Еженедельник “Звезда”

«Украинские предложения Мединскому — это ловушка для России»

Дипломат с 40-летним стажем объяснил, почему нужно прекратить диалог с Киевом

Верить украинским переговорщикам нельзя, заявил в интервью URA.RU экс-руководитель информационно-аналитического центра МИД России, дипломат с 40-летним стажем, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин. По его словам, если пойти с ними на компромисс, Киев снова обманет. Российская делегация во главе с Владимиром Мединским выбрала слишком мягкий формат переговоров, убежден эксперт.

— Заявления российской делегации, в том числе ее руководителя Владимира Мединского после российско-украинских переговоров в Стамбуле вызвали неоднозначные эмоции в российском обществе. Некоторые восприняли эти слова как готовность России остановиться и отступить от своих планов. Это так?

— Как я понимаю из разъяснений наших представителей, это были только переданные украинской стороной соображения. Это не проект соглашения, а всего лишь тезисы, концепция. Причем заявляется, что это Украина представила, Киев. Но тезисы — это нонсенс в дипломатической практике. Они не утверждены украинским руководством. А поскольку они не утверждены и нашей стороной, это только предмет будущего рассмотрения и анализа.

Судя по тому, что было представлено с украинской стороны, эти предложения носят усеченный характер. Там нет ни одного слова о демилитаризации украинского общества, нет ни одного слова о денацификации.

Это, по существу, для России шаг назад. Украинцы тянут одеяло на себя. Они не учитывают реального положения дел. Они ведут себя очень развязно и нагло. Я бы никогда не вел с такими людьми переговоров. И полностью разделяю точку зрения [главы Чечни Рамзана] Кадырова, который сказал, что нам такие переговоры не нужны. Зачем нам нужны такие переговоры, если украинцы по-прежнему убивают мирных людей в Донбассе? Я бы сразу сказал: «Никаких переговоров, пока не прекратите эти безобразия».

— Только то, что выгодно Украине…

— Да, предложения представлены в том виде, в каком это выгодно Украине. Это принципиальный момент. Россия же по-прежнему за денацификацию и демилитаризацию Украины — это наша неизменная позиция.

— А что означает заявление нашей делегации, что будет сокращена военная активность на киевском и черниговском направлениях, поскольку переговоры перешли в «практическую плоскость»?

— Не знаю. Вообще, такие решения принимает и озвучивает верховный главнокомандующий или министр обороны при содействии генерального штаба. Больше никто.

— У многих людей в России создается впечатление, что Россия по-прежнему оставляет Киеву шанс на дипломатическое разрешение конфликта…

— Очень плохо, если такое впечатление создается. Такого впечатления вообще не должно быть. Шанс только один — военный. Достижение полного перелома. Полное уничтожение военной машины Украины — демилитаризация и уничтожение всех нацистов.

Одни — в тюрьму, а кто сопротивляется — в расход. Без сожалений. Только так. И только потом переговоры. Полная и безоговорочная капитуляция, как было с фашистской Германией 9 мая 1945 года.

— Мы помним, чем закончил Гитлер. А что будет с Зеленским — еще вопрос…

— Судить. Нюрнбергский трибунал 2.0. Если, конечно, пулю в лоб сам себе не пустит.

— Можно ли верить обещаниям украинской стороны, например, о том, что пытки наших пленных солдат прекратятся?

— Нельзя их слушать! Это говорит жулик с украинской стороны, вор и убийца. Как можно верить жуликам и мошенникам? Письменно представили гарантии? Нет. Когда мы согласовывали гуманитарные коридоры, они ни одного коридора не подтвердили. Ни одного! Наоборот — обстреливали все коридоры, которые вели в Россию и Белоруссию.

— Заявлениям Украины о нейтральном статусе, получается, тоже верить нельзя?

— Смотрите, Финляндия — нейтральная страна, не член НАТО. Она заказала 64 истребителя-бомбардировщика F-35А — носители ядерного оружия. Зачем нейтральной Финляндии носители ядерного оружия? Да потому что она завтра уже будет в НАТО — в июне этого года ее примут в Мадриде. Почему нейтральная Швеция поставляет украинским бандитам противотанковые средства — шесть тысяч единиц? Украина должна быть не нейтральным, а неприсоединившимся государством.

— Что это за статус?

— Это государство, которое вообще не участвует ни в каких военных блоках, военных союзах, не получает ни от кого военной помощи и так далее. Нейтральные страны — это другое. Австрия, например. Позитив нейтралитета Австрии в том, что он гарантирован государствами-победителями Второй мировой войны. Или Швейцария — она сама провозгласила нейтралитет.

А статус неприсоединившегося государства выше, чем статус нейтрального. Я на примерах Финляндии и Швеции показал, что этот нейтралитет может быть нарушен путем приобретения оружия и передачи противнику оружия своего производства.

— То есть в каком-то итоговом документе с Украиной должен быть прописан именно статус не присоединившегося государства?

— Естественно. Нейтральность — это для нас подводный камень. Вот сейчас в Донбассе заканчивается вода. Почему я не слышал на переговорах, чтобы мы поставили этот вопрос? Потом, скажите, издевательства над нашими военнопленными, о чем вы уже упоминали, — это сейчас появилось? Еще 2 марта генерал-майор Игорь Конашенков уже говорил об этом. Почему не ставили этот вопрос раньше? Вчера Мединский заявил протест, его визави что-то ответил. Но эти гарантии должен давать не руководитель делегации, а верховный главнокомандующий — [президент Владимир] Зеленский. Они должны быть письменными.

— Как мы знаем на примере «Минских соглашений», даже в письменном виде никакие договоренности не соблюдаются, а страны-гаранты, кроме России, на это никак не реагируют…

— Предложения, которые были выдвинуты вчера украинской делегацией в Стамбуле, — это ловушка.

Очень опасная ловушка для российской стороны. Эти предложения несостоятельные, неприемлемые. Они унижают нас, заставляют нас прекратить акции по освобождению Украины, по защите Донбасса. Более того, они замахиваются даже на Крым. 15 лет они не будут претендовать, а на шестнадцатом году по новой начнется? Когда Запад вооружит их сверх меры, биологическое и ядерное оружие помогут создать.

— Мединский заявил, что встреча Путина и Зеленского будет возможна, когда будет разработан мирный договор. Будет ли такая встреча?

— Никакой встречи с этим агрессором [Зеленским]! Никакой встречи с этим убийцей! Он должен уйти в отставку и предстать перед судом за все злодеяния, которые он начал. Вообще никаких встреч, потому что Украина никогда не пойдет на уступки и на компромиссы. Это надо знать заранее.

Если будем питать иллюзии — наломаем дров. И в третий раз наступим на грабли: первый раз — Хасавюртовское соглашение 1996 года, второй раз — Минские соглашения 2015 года. И что? Каждый раз после передышки противная сторона укрепляла себя и становилась еще более враждебной и еще более агрессивной.

— Как вы оцениваете политический вес сторон?

— Это делегации не равны. Украинская сторона — это представители государства-агрессора. Украина 14 февраля начала третью агрессию против Донбасса. 17 февраля был всплеск, а 18 февраля потекли потоки беженцев в Россию. 24 февраля Россия начала давать ответ. Мы — делегация завтрашних победителей, или, по крайней мере, освободителей Украины от нацизма, освободителей Донбасса от обстрелов варварских и от геноцида, который там творился. К сожалению, обстрелы продолжаются по сей день со стороны укров.

Но в Стамбуле украинская делегация начала вести себя как победитель и диктовать нам условия. Дело дошло до того, что украинские переговорщики стали требовать от нас компенсации за разрушенные здания, мосты и так далее, хотя они взрывали и расстреливали их сами.

Я не знаю, кто научил украинскую делегацию так себя вести, приходить на официальные переговоры в футболках, майках, кепках, сидеть, развалившись, в штанах-трениках. Я 40 лет проработал в МИДе и никогда не встречался с таким поведением и отношением.

— Какие риски для российской армии и русских на Украине несет такое затягивание переговоров? Вам не кажется, что Киев тянет только для того, чтобы провести передислокацию войск, укрепиться, получить дополнительное вооружение с Запада?

— Нет, главная генеральная цель украинских стамбульских предложений, так их назовем, — это продлить агрессию против Донбасса и создать основу для начала в каком-то году агрессии против РФ в отношении Крыма. У них в законах так записано.

— Начать агрессию против Крыма… Мы же не теряем надежду, что спецоперация будет доведена до конца. И все равно при этом остается угроза для Крыма?

— Если мы будем едины, не будем допускать ляпов и ошибок, Крым никогда не вернется Украине. Это наша исконно русская земля. 1783 год [когда Крым вошел в состав Российской Империи] — это ключевая дата. Других дат быть не может. [Первый секретарь ЦК КПСС Никита] Хрущев передавал президиум Верховного Совета СССР — нелегитимный орган для решения таких вопросов, и, кстати, на этом президиуме даже не было кворума. Можете себе представить, что за волюнтаризм, что за решение это было?!

— А Харьков, Одесса, Донбасс могут войти в состав России?

— Кроме ЛНР и ДНР, никакие территории не должны входить в состав России. ДНР и ЛНР — да, если этот вопрос будет поставлен после окончания спецоперации. Я их понимаю. Вообще-то надо было принять их сразу же.

— До начала спецоперации?

— Да, до начала. Это отрезвило бы агрессора. Они бы тогда воевали уже с Россией напрямую, а не с народными республиками. Но это мое частное мнение.

— Из вашей биографии узнала, что вы окончили Королевскую академию оборонных исследований. Это наверняка дает вам понимание специфики мысли западных военных, которые и обучали украинских солдат и нацбатальоны военным действиям. Чего ждать от них?

— В Королевской академии я учился в 1995 году.

Со мной учился полковник ГРУ Украины Анатолий Андриевский. Сразу было видно, как западники, натовцы обхаживали его. Точнее, не его, а в том числе через него Украину. Они готовили Украину для того, чтобы она стала государством, через которое можно было бы постепенно уничтожать Россию.

— То есть все идет все-таки с начала-середины 1990-х годов?

— Да-да, в середине 1990-х пошло. Там [в Королевской академии] было около 100 слушателей из разных стран, но я не видел ни к кому такого подобострастного отношения, как к этому человеку, который был абсолютный ноль, двоечник, плохо знавший язык, никогда не выступавший на семинарах, очень слабо подготовленный. Он попал в эту академию лишь потому, что однажды ездил туристом в Великобританию.

Поэтому ожидать от Украины можно одного: она будет такой же русофобской, милитаристской страной, агрессивной, непочтительной, наглой, нахрапистой. Украина есть и будет в дальнейшем плацдармом для нападения на Россию или для того, чтобы держать нас в состоянии напряжения.

Беседовала Екатерина Лазарева. Источник: URA.RU

«Химические инциденты» в Солсбери и сирийской Думе — это провокационные акции одной цепи

Несмотря на многочисленные лингвистические уловки и пропагандистские трюки, британской стороне так и не удалось доказать причастность России к «инциденту в Солсбери», связанному с «отравлением» Сергея и Юлии Скрипаль в этом южном британском городке 4 марта. Не смогла выполнить такую же миссию «истца», на котором всегда лежит бремя доказательства, и «тройственная коалиция» США, Великобритании и Франции, которая нанесла неспровоцированный ракетный удар по городу Дума в сирийской Восточной Гуте, не дождавшись на это санкции Совета Безопасности ООН и подтверждения факта «применения химического оружия» против мирных жителей этого населенного пункта 7 апреля.

Таким образом, и первый, и второй случай применения противоправных средств против мирных граждан другой страны вполне можно квалифицировать как военное преступление, а второе — еще и как акт агрессии против суверенного государства-полноправного члена ООН.

С целью оправдания своих действий после «инцидента в Солсбери», нынешнее британское правительство до сих пор использует предположительные лингвистические обороты в виде «весьма вероятно» и еще семь аналогичных структур английского языка в качестве доказательства вины России в этом трагическом эпизоде. Но доказательств о ее причастности к этой бесчеловечной акции так никто и не представил: ни правительство Великобритании, ни Организация по запрещению химического оружия (ОЗХО). Похоже, что они уже не представят таких доказательств никогда.

Немаловажно отметить, что эксперты этой международной структуры работали по «делу Скрипалей» не в соответствии с Конвенцией о запрещении химического оружия, а на двусторонней основе с британской стороной, которая единолично контролировала проведение экспертизы бесконтрольно собранных ею проб. Вместо следования порядку, прописанному конвенцией, Лондон пригласил представителей ОЗХО в страну для отбора проб, но оно было осуществлено в рамках технической поддержки, а не в качестве инспекции. Это означало, что представители ОЗХО не имели особых прав инспекторов и поэтому не могли отбирать все пробы, которые они сочли необходимым взять для проверки, а также не могли опросить всех вовлеченных в инцидент физических лиц. Известно, что Лондон вообще отказал представителям ОЗХО в отборе некоторых проб, а также в проведении бесед с отдельными людьми. Данный факт свидетельствует о неискренности Великобритании в расследовании «дела Скрипалей», а также о нарушении Конвенции о запрещении химического оружия.

Неуклюжие заявления британской стороны по эпизоду «4 марта», то есть по делу Скрипалей, до сих пор полны разительных противоречий, на которые руководство Великобритании до сих пор не удосужилось дать вразумительные ответы.

Премьер-министр Тереза Мэй так и не смогла доселе объяснить, почему она сразу же определила тип примененного против Скрипалей некоего химического вещества, хотя сама же обещала сообщить его формулу только «через несколько месяцев», в то время как Организация по запрещению химического оружия рассчитывала получить по нему конкретные результаты «через пару недель». Это названной международной структуре, как известно, удалось уложиться именно в названные сроки. А лондонские специалисты-химики до сих пор теряются в догадках: что же это было?

Лондон действительно «запутался в трех соснах», сначала представив дело так, что против семьи Скрипалей был использовано некое нервнопаралитическое вещество в виде газа, впоследствии обозначив его как порошковую субстанцию, а затем представив его в виде некоего геля. Если в виде газа, то почему ничего опасного не случилось со 131 гражданским жителем Солсбери, которые, как утверждал один из слайдов, распространенных посольством Великобритании в Москве от 22 марта этого года с грифом «Правительство Ее Величества», «потенциально могли контактировать с нервнопаралитическим веществом»? Живыми-здоровыми отпустили домой и 51 человека, которые были осмотрены в районном госпитале Солсбери после инцидента со Скрипалями 4 марта. Почему ничем не заразилась женщина-врач, осматривавшая Юлию после обнаружения ее с отцом в тяжелом состоянии на известной скамейке? Все это и многое другое остается без ответа.

Лондон до сих пор ответил только на два конкретных вопроса по «делу Скрипалей» из 47 вопросов, поставленных Москвой. Да и то лишь частично.

Разнобой в заявлениях Лондона существует и по части местонахождения злополучного отравляющего вещества. То оно появилось в автомашине Сергея Скрипаля, то на скамейке, где он сидел с Юлией, то на дверной ручке дома Сергея, то в гречневой крупе, которую Юлия привезла отцу в Солсбери, то в ее дамской сумочке.

Противоречие британской точки зрения в так называемом деле Скрипалей проявилось и в том, что на первых порах официальные британские представителя сообщили, что Сергей и Юлия выжили благодаря оперативному применению неких срочно появившихся антидотов, в то время как Гари Айткенхед, руководитель военной лаборатории Великобритании в Портон-Дауне (Defense Studies and Technology Laboratory), где работают около четырех тысяч человек, заявил, что никакие антидоты против них не применялись вообще. Так где же правда? Кому верить?

Британское правительство до сих пор не предоставляет никаких возможностей побеседовать с Юлией не только российским консульским работникам, что является нарушением международной Консульской конвенции, но и даже своим журналистам, которые также хотели бы задать ей несколько вопросов по существу случившегося. Тем более, что Юлия уже выписана из районного госпиталя в Солсбери в добром здравии, как публично утверждала по британским телеканалам ее главный врач. Но, несмотря на это, до сих пор нигде не появилась ни одна актуальная публичная фотографии или даже краткая видеозапись Юлии, которая, несмотря на ее выздоровление, косвенно пообщалась с внешним миром только через британский Скотланд-Ярд, да и то в письменном виде. По сути дела, Сергея и Юлию Скрипаля британские власти просто похитили. 

Более того, чтобы скрыть следы своей акции они пошли на еще одно преступление. Российское посольство в Лондоне подозревает, что в кровь Юлии Скрипаль могли ввести токсичный химикат перед тем, как взять ее кровь на анализ. По словам пресс-секретаря посольства, непонятно, каким образом в крови Юлии Скрипаль спустя 18 дней после попытки ее отравления эксперты смогли обнаружить неразложившийся токсичный химикат.

Британские власти до сих пор не предоставили ее двоюродной сестре Виктории визу на посещение Великобритании под смехотворным предлогом, что у нее нет финансовых средств на такую поездку. Отказ в выдаче британской краткосрочной визы в подобной конкретной ситуации является прямым нарушением гуманитарного права, да и просто прискорбным примером наплевательского отношения к стремлению близкого родственника повидаться с родным человеком, попавшим в трудную ситуацию.

Здесь уместно сказать о мотивах британской стороны, которая явно причастна к отравлению семьи Скрипалей. Нервно-паралитическое вещество под кодом А-234, которое было использовано при их отравлении, имеется в сейфах военной лаборатории Великобритании в Портон-Дауне. Дело в том, что британское руководство опасалось, что Сергей Скрипаль, который после семи с лишним лет пребывания на земле Туманного Альбиона пожелал вернуться в Россию, где он вполне мог бы передать новую информацию о работе с ним британских спецслужб уже после его переселения в Великобританию в 2010 году.

Есть вполне реальные причины, которыми можно объяснить попытку отравления Скрипалей. Она была моментально использована британским руководством как обоснование более масштабных военных приготовлений НАТО, в особенности, в Восточной Европе, а также как предлог для отказа США ликвидировать химическое оружие, уничтожение которого в соответствии с его обязательствами по международной Конвенции о запрещении химического оружия Вашингтоном явно затянулось. Имеются данные, что США припрятали свыше двух тысяч тонн боевых отравляющих веществ и не стремятся их уничтожать.

Следует обратить внимание на то, что со стороны официального Лондона эпизод с семейством Скрипалей был интерпретирован как «применение оружия массового уничтожения против Великобритании и Европы». Не исключено, что «дело Скрипалей» используется для облечения условий выхода Великобритании из Евросоюза, торпедирования строительства «Северного потока — 2» и восстановления падающих рейтингов кабинета Терезы Мэй. Ведущие страны-члены НАТО также давно ждали каких-то особых предлогов для введения новых санкций против России и с целью понижения ее престижа на международной арене и поощрения террористов в других районах земного шара.

Таких ухищренных и опасных по своим последствиям провокаций с британской стороны применительно к России не было уже давно. Что касается «химического спектакля» в сирийской Думе, то он уже развенчан самими его исполнителями, которых террористические формирования, еще не уничтоженные на сирийской земле, «отблагодарили» едой за сыгранные роли «жертв химического поражения». Эту дешевую постановку раскрыли два врача из той больницы, где снималось известное шоу с поливанием водой из шлангов и детей, и взрослых. Точно такой же спектакль был разыгран террористическими формированиями и их пропагандистами в лице «Белых касок» и «Сирийско-американского медицинского центра» в прошлом году, который был использован нынешней американской администрацией для нанесения ракетных ударов по сирийской территории. Не для того, чтобы при поддержке США создать там с помощью непримиримых террористов сепаратистское от Сирии государство?

Вместо признания ошибочности нанесения ракетных ударов по Сирии, американское военно-политическое руководство пытается разыгрывать карту «эффективности» применения «Томагавков» и им подобных ракет, таким образом, тщательно маскируя квалификацию трехсторонней силовой акции, которая не может называться иначе как «агрессия и военное преступление». Причем, эти удары были нанесены по Сирии в тот момент, когда до завершения операции в Восточной Гуте оставалось всего два дня и когда нормализация обстановки в Сирии в целом стала необратимым явлением.

Как было заявлено Генеральным штабом российских Вооруженных сил 25 апреля, удары ракет западной «тройки» были нанесены по трем объектам, которые вообще не использовались для производства и хранения химического оружия. Кстати сказать, оно было полностью уничтожено Сирией в 2014 году под контролем международных инспекторов.

Итак, и в эпизодах, имевших место в британском Солсбери в марте, и в сирийской Думе в апреле этого года, прослеживается один и тот же почерк, один и тот же стратегический замысел: с помощью грубо сработанных провокаций и фейков обострить региональную и международную обстановку, оказать дополнительную моральную и материальную поддержку «террористическому интернационалу», еще действующему на сирийской земле. Псевдоспектакли «с применением химического оружия» на сирийской территории были также разработаны с целью срыва процесса мирного урегулирования в САР, проводимого в Женеве и Астане.

Почему были избраны именно подобные «химические сюжеты» с использованием людей? Они были расписаны их авторами и исполнителями по той причине, что даже постановочные телекартинки, в особенности с показом трясущихся детей, наиболее эффективно воздействуют на мировое общественное мнение и подталкивают неадекватных государственно-политических лидеров к немедленной силовой мести «организаторам химических атак».

Крайне опасно, если такие провокационные методы станут предлогом проведения безрассудных силовых и иных опасных действий военно-политических руководителей ведущих стран Запада, которые готовы произвольно осуществить их там и тогда, где и когда им вздумается. Лишь бы был какой-то предлог. Пусть и ложный. Пусть и без решения Совета Безопасности ООН, как они считают.

Но если такая схема действий окажется неизменной и стабильно повторяющейся, то рецидива открытого разбоя в мировых делах со стороны названной «тройки» и ей потворствующих просто не миновать.

Автор:  В.П.Козин, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований

«Чтобы выйти из войн, надо выйти из НАТО»

В Европе начался процесс создания специфического движения антивоенной и одновременно антинатовской направленности, и он может быть активизирован

Прошедшая в апреле этого года в итальянской Флоренции международная конференция членов некоммерческих (неправительственных) организаций могла бы остаться вне поля зрения государственных и политических деятелей, а также представителей СМИ, если бы не ряд связанных с ней весьма заметных обстоятельств.

Первая и самая главная отличительная черта состоявшегося форума проявилась в том, что он проходил под нестандартным девизом «Нет войне, нет НАТО». Её участники самым решительным образом поставили вопрос о недопущении любого военного столкновения на европейском континенте и в мире в целом - будь то с применением ядерных или обычных вооружений.

На форуме прозвучал призыв: создать движение общественных и политических сил в Европе, которое, как и широкое антиядерное движение общественности 80-х годов прошлого столетия, помогло бы устранить ракетно-ядерную угрозу, так как уровень её в последние годы, в том числе и в этой части земного шара, стал явно высоким.

В частности, помимо развёрнутого с 50-х годов прошлого столетия ядерного оружия тактического назначения США на европейском континенте, в последние годы Пентагон стал всё чаще направлять в воздушное пространство над ним самолёты тяжёлой стратегической авиации, способной нести на борту как крылатые ракеты, так и авиабомбы с ядерными боезарядами.

Вторая особенность проведённого мероприятия заключалась в том, что оно имело весьма представительный характер: в нём приняли участие свыше 500 человек, что побудило его организаторов даже арендовать на восемь часов один из центральных кинотеатров города - «Одеон». Интерес был явно большой.

На конференции были представлены практически все государства Европы, в том числе страны, являющиеся членами Североатлантического альянса. С целью информирования участников встречи о ситуации, связанной с дальнейшим осложнением процесса контроля над вооружениями, в особенности над ядерными потенциалами, на мероприятие в качестве основных докладчиков были приглашены известные эксперты, занимающиеся названной проблематикой. Среди выступавших также были специалисты, изучающие негативные последствия выделения явно завышенных военных расходов ведущими странами НАТО, которые мешают реализации программ социально-экономического развития входящих в неё государств и европейского сообщества в целом.

Специально к 70-летию создания НАТО организаторы конференции подготовили и продемонстрировали документальный фильм «70 лет НАТО: война на войне», который критикует военную политику и военные приготовления альянса «трансатлантической солидарности», его огромные военные расходы и попытки политического и иного вмешательства в дела суверенных государств с целью свержения законно созданных органов власти и управления.

В фильме показаны акты вмешательства США и других государств, входящих в этот блок, в дела Сербии, Сирии и других стран, предъявлены доказательства вмешательства Вашингтона во внутренние дела Украины путём организации государственного переворота в 2014 году. Подвергнуты критике развертывание американского ядерного оружия и противоракетных систем Европе. Поставлен вопрос о закрытии всех военных баз США не только в Италии, но и в других европейских странах. В фильме прозвучал лозунг: «Чтобы выйти из войн, надо выйти из НАТО».

На мероприятии с российской стороны была представлена новая монография «Эволюция стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений США и особенности их применения в XXI веке» (Москва. 2019 г. 1086 стр.), а также проанализирована тревожная ситуация, сложившаяся в сфере контроля над вооружениями по вине Соединённых Штатов, которые проявили и по-прежнему проявляют негативное отношение к 12 международным договорам в названной области. Это демонстрируется тем, что они либо в одностороннем порядке денонсировали некоторые из них (в частности, Договор по ПРО), либо уклонились от их ратификации (например, Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний), либо нарушили их положения (скажем, Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности или сокращенно ДРСМД), либо вообще отказались обсуждать по существу ряд из них на международных переговорных площадках (пример: проект Договора о европейской безопасности).

Было особо отмечено, что половина таких договоров и соглашений имеет прямое отношение к ядерному оружию, а именно: Договор о сокращении стратегических наступательных вооружений (Договор СНВ-3), Договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, Договор о нераспространении ядерного оружия, «Иранская ядерная сделка», Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний и Соглашение по оружейному плутонию.

Особое внимание с российской стороны было уделено многократным нарушениям Вашингтоном бессрочного ДРСМД, когда при тестировании им эффективности системы ПРО были задействованы ракеты-мишени, запрещенные этим договорным актом.

Из официальных документов Конгресса и Министерства обороны США следует, что с учётом непосредственного применения названных ракет-мишеней в ходе подобных испытаний за последние два десятилетия Пентагон нарушил этот договор 117 раз. Сообщение этой цифры в столь большой аудитории на флорентийском форуме явно не осталось и не останется без внимания, в особенности на фоне того, что Россия ни разу не нарушила этот договор и не объявила первой о его денонсации.

В одобренной итоговой «Флорентийской декларации» отмечалось, что НАТО является организацией, находящейся под командованием Пентагона, и её цель - обеспечить контроль над Западной и Восточной Европой, а военные базы США в государствах-участниках этого военного союза служат для оккупации этих стран. Сохранение постоянного американского военного присутствия позволяет Вашингтону оказывать влияние и контролировать политику европейских и других стран.

В итоговом документе, который впоследствии был переведён ещё на 15 языков, также отмечается, что Североатлантический союз является военной машиной, которая работает ради интересов США при пособничестве ключевых европейских силовых групп и которая запятнала себя преступлениями против человечества. В этом контексте были упомянуты агрессивная война, развязанная НАТО в 1999 году против Югославии, а также военные интервенции блока, осуществленные при полном нарушении международного права против Афганистана, Ливии, Сирии и ряда других государств.

В декларации констатируется, что в нарушение Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия Соединённые Штаты развертывают ядерное оружие в пяти неядерных государствах НАТО под фальшивым предлогом существования «российской угрозы», что подвергает риску безопасность на европейском континенте.

Разумеется, что от принятой во Флоренции декларации о необходимости роспуска такого военного союза как НАТО и укрепления режима контроля над вооружениями до достижения конкретных результатов на названных направлениях потребуется осуществить много организационно-политических, информационных и иных усилий со стороны приверженцев внеблоковой политики и обеспечения глобальной стабильности на высоком уровне. Похоже, что процесс создания такого специфического движения антивоенной и одновременно антинатовской направленности начался, и он может быть активизирован.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: Еженедельник “Звезда”

«Ядерный кризис» с целью «защиты воздушного пространства государств Балтии»

15 лет назад ВВС НАТО приступили к проведению Baltic Air Policing - «Балтийского воздушного патрулирования», в котором задействованы самолёты «двойного назначения» всех трёх ядерных держав Запада

Под сомнительным предлогом

В конце марта этого года исполнилась пятнадцатая годовщина начала проведения крайне опасной, с точки зрения интересов национальной безопасности России, операции ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», называемой на английском языке как Baltic Air Policing. Решение о её организации было принято на заседании Североатлантического совета 17 марта 2004 года под сомнительным предлогом - с целью «защиты воздушного пространства государств Балтии», словно кто-то и когда-то посягал на их воздушное пространство. Руководство этой операцией осуществляется центром совместных операций ВВС НАТО,  расположенном в Удеме (ФРГ).

Спустя почти две недели после этого в небе трёх балтийских государств -  Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии, которые вступили в Североатлантический союз в качестве полноправных членов, на ротационной основе появились первые натовские боевые самолёты средней дальности. Половина входящих в альянс государств поэтапно предоставили истребители и истребители-бомбардировщики различных типов, самолёты-заправщики и самолёты-разведчики. Как ни странно, но в марте 2004 года первой страной - участницей альянса, направившей свои боевые самолёты в небо Балтии, стала небольшая по размерам страна - Бельгия. Что она там забыла? Но самое главное - для её проведения свои военно-воздушные единицы выделили ведущие ядерные державы Запада (Великобритания, США и Франция), которые стали стабильно использовать в ней самолёты «двойного назначения», способные нести на борту не только обычные виды вооружений, но и ядерные авиабомбы свободного падения.

При этом следует учесть, что операция ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» осуществляется круглосуточно и круглогодично - в самой непосредственной близости от российских рубежей.

С точки зрения национальной безопасности России, существенно и другое обстоятельство. Её «зона ответственности» охватывает не только небо над названными тремя государствами Балтии, но и воздушное пространство, которое простирается над частью акватории Балтийского моря, прилегающей к территории Калининградской и Ленинградской областей.

«Полицейская миссия» или боевая воздушная акция?

Указанная операция, которую некоторые российские специалисты, не знакомые с её ключевым функциональным предназначением, неправильно переводят с английского официальное название  как «Балтийская полицейская операция», отнюдь не сформирована как некая «полицейская миссия» по контролированию и обеспечению безопасности воздушного движения в этой части европейского континента. Названная операция - это реальная боевая воздушная акция с далеко идущими целями.

В ней участвуют боевые самолёты из ВВС Бельгии, Великобритании, Венгрии, Дании, Испании, Польши, Португалии, Румынии, США, Турции, Норвегии, Нидерландов, Франции и ФРГ.

Как видно из этого списка стран - участниц НАТО, в этой операции принимают участие самолёты «двойного назначения» всех трёх ядерных держав Запада - Великобритании, США и Франции.

Из-за этого потенциального ядерного компонента её вполне можно расценить как «Карибский кризис № 3» или «Балтийский ядерный кризис», если учесть реально созданный Соединёнными Штатами «Карибский кризис № 1» в октябре 1962 года и условно названный «Карибский кризис № 2», который был инициирован участниками Североатлантического союза в декабре 1979 года, когда тот дал «добро» на развертывание в ряде государств Европы американских ядерных «Першингов» и «Томагавков».

Боевые самолёты названных государств альянса «трансатлантической солидарности» активно используют не только воздушное пространство Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии, но и их военно-воздушные базы, расположенные близ латвийского Лиелварде, литовского Зокняй и эстонского населенного пункта Эмари, как военные аэродромы постоянного базирования. Все эти авиабазы после вхождения в альянс трёх государств Балтии прошли основательную модернизацию, после которой они приобрели многофункциональный характер. Настолько многофункциональный, что могут принимать все три типа тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков, имеющихся на вооружении Соединённых Штатов, а именно бомбардировщики стратегического назначения «В-1В», «В-52Н» и «В-2А». Все они, получившие «постоянную прописку» на военных базах в Великобритании, уже несколько лет назад стали отрабатывать перелёты и посадку на авиабазе в Эмари.

Начиная с 2014 года, Соединённые Штаты стали развёртывать свои тяжёлые стратегические бомбардировщики на  европейском континенте, по крайней мере, один раз в год. С тех пор все три типа американских бомбардировщиков стратегического назначения, а именно «В-1В», «В-52Н» и «В-2А», размещаются на британской авиабазе Фэрфорд с целью последующего участия в военных учениях с европейскими странами НАТО, в том числе в учениях «Балтопс» и «Сэйбр страйк». Эта британская авиабаза в течение десятилетий является американским резервным пунктом для действий бомбардировочной авиации стратегического назначения по всей Европе.

Как было отмечено в информационном сообщении пресс-службы НАТО в марте 2019 года, американские стратегические ядерные силы направили в Великобританию сразу шесть тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков  «B-52Н» дальнего радиуса действия - «для проведения серии учебных мероприятий над Европой». 14 марта эти самолёты и более 450 военнослужащих военно-воздушных сил США прибыли на базу «Фэрфорд» с базы ВВС «Барксдейл», расположенной в американском штате  Луизиана.

Один из российских экспертов, познакомившись с маршрутом их движения над воздушным пространством Балтийского моря в сторону авиабазы в Эмари, предположил, что они, мол, проводят облёты маршрута подводной прокладки газопровода «Северный поток-2», часть которого с российского побережья в Ленинградской области проходит  в сторону Германии. Эксперт стал утверждать, что такие полёты американской стратегической авиации преследуют цель потенциального уничтожения этого газопровода.

Трудно предположить, что именно такая задача ставится перед американскими стратегическими ядерными силами в водах Балтики, но то, что названные носители американского ракетно-ядерного оружия воздушного базирования осваивают для себя доселе незнакомый «театр военных действий», не вызывает никаких сомнений.

На это, в частности, указывают и количество тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков США, задействованных в полётах над Балтийским морем, и их прибытие на военный аэродром в эстонском Эмари, а также периодичность их полётов в той части европейского континента.

«Ядерный зонтик», а не рутинное «патрулирование»

Назвав их развертывание «плановым», официальный представитель НАТО Оана Лунгеску признала, что «это свидетельствует о том, что ядерный зонтик США защищает Европу и демонстрирует уникальный потенциал, который США могут перебросить в Европу в кризисной ситуации». Так всё же «ядерный зонтик», а не рутинное «патрулирование»?

Комментируя в беседе со мной возникшую ситуацию с появлением американских тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков в Балтийском регионе, один из депутатов латвийского парламента пытался перевести разговор на несколько иной аспект, заявляя, что Пентагон не строит специальных хранилищ для хранения ядерного оружия в Латвии. Может быть, что действительно не строит, но это не означает, что на борту обозначенных средств доставки ядерного оружия, принадлежащих Соединённым Штатам, его нет и в помине. Одновременно нельзя утверждать, что оно имеется на их борту, так как никаких военно-технических инспекций по этому поводу Российская Федерация никогда не проводила и не проводит до сих пор - в силу отсутствия соответствующей договорённости как с Вашингтоном, так и со столицами всех трёх государств Балтии.

Тем временем НАТО продолжает усиливать группировку и боевые задачи операции «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование».

14 июня 2016 года тогдашний заместитель генерального секретаря НАТО американец Александр Вершбоу встретился с министрами обороны Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии, чтобы подписать новое соглашение о механизмах организации использования воздушного пространства в поддержку миссии ВВС НАТО по патрулированию воздушного пространства и другой деятельности в воздушном пространстве в регионе Балтийского моря.

Во время церемонии подписания Александр Вершбоу подчеркнул, что данное соглашение между альянсом и тремя государствами Балтии будет способствовать «расширению возможностей для подготовки к действиям в воздушном пространстве Балтийского региона». Возникает вопрос: для подготовки к каким «действиям»? Тогдашний заместитель генерального секретаря трансатлантического союза добавил, что подписанный документ направляет «чёткий сигнал об общей ответственности и решимости Североатлантического союза защищать территорию и население стран НАТО». Защищать от кого?

В соответствии с новой стратегией объединённых ВВС трансатлантического альянса (NATO’s Joint Air Power Strategy), одобренной  26 июня 2018 года, военно-воздушные силы входящих в него государств должны иметь возможность действовать «в любой местности и в любых условиях», в том числе в сильно защищённом воздушном пространстве и в зонах интенсивного воздушного движения. Балтийский регион подпадает под такую трактовку воздушной активности, предложенную штаб-квартирой блока. Подтвердив готовность продолжения текущих военно-воздушных операций в различных регионах мира, названный документ нацелил государства Североатлантического союза на продолжение разработки доктрин ВВС и создания новых сил и средств в этой сфере.

Как было объявлено на саммите НАТО, состоявшемся в июле 2018 года в Брюсселе, в рамках блока была согласована стратегия по объединённому военно-воздушному потенциалу, которая станет ключевым фактором для миссий ВВС альянса по патрулированию воздушного пространства в мирное время. Она касается и операции «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование».

В официальных документах НАТО указывается, что круглосуточная защита воздушного пространства государств Балтии основана на том, что они не имеют достаточного количества боевых самолётов, которые могли бы взять на себя обозначенную задачу. Однако особенности проведения столь длительной операции ВВС НАТО в небе Балтики с отработкой специфических тактических и стратегических задач свидетельствует о том, что она преследует наступательные боевые цели широкого спектра.

Представляется, что именно по названным выше многим причинам российской стороне необходимо постоянно ставить перед США и остальными государствами Североатлантического союза вопрос о полном прекращении патрулирования воздушного пространства стран Балтии и зоны Балтийского моря боевыми самолётами НАТО, в том числе американской тяжёлой стратегической авиацией. Постановка подобного вопроса должна быть последовательно-активной и сопутствовать настойчивым предложениям американских и натовских контрагентов, требующих от России одностороннего сокращения  или уничтожения своих видов вооружений.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: еженедельник “Звезда”

«Ядерный удар» Пентагона

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В. П. Козин в программе «Открытый эфир» на телеканале «Звезда»: 

«Необходимо более требовательно ставить перед США вопрос об учете на переговорах по контролю над вооружениями их «средств передового базирования», которые в последние годы значительно возросли, стали комбинированными и многофункциональными».

Что таит в себе новая стратегия Пентагона о ядерном сдерживании и почему с ее появлением стрелки часов судного дня приблизятся к полуночи?

Эфир от 2 сентября 2020 г.

Источник: телеканал «Звезда» 

Агрессивна как по форме, так и по содержанию

Такую оценку получила в мире новая американская стратегия национальной безопасности

США Дональд Трамп лично представил новую «Стратегию национальной безопасности Соединённых Штатов Америки» – один из основополагающих документов страны, определяющий главные направления деятельности главы государства и исполнительной власти по укреплению мощи США и продвижению американских интересов за рубежом. Уже первая реакция на неё как внутри самих Соединённых Штатов, так и за их пределами была крайне негативной. И тому имеются свои объяснения.

Америка – прежде всего

Запуская в производство новую стратегическую установку в области национальной безопасности, Дональд Трамп уверенно заявил: «Нация, которая не готова выиграть войну, представляет собой такую нацию, которая неспособна предотвратить войну». Интересно: какую «войну» он имел в виду? И против кого? Разъяснения не последовало. Но анализ самого этого документа не оставляет сомнений относительно характера такой «войны» и её географического вектора.

В документе, который заменил прежнюю военно-политическую стратегию аналогичного содержания, подписанную Бараком Обамой в 2010 году, а затем обновлённую им же в 2015-м, Соединённые Штаты названы государством, имеющим глобальные амбиции и готовым реагировать на любые угрозы, возникающие как в отношении собственной территории, так и их союзников и друзей. И эта установка выражена в любимом лозунге Дональда Трампа «Америка – прежде всего», духом которого пронизано всё содержание новой стратегии.

В качестве одного из приоритетов в ней объявлено укрепление энергетической безопасности США. Указывая на это, авторы стратегии говорят об «энергетическом возрождении» в США, сделавшем Америку, по их словам, «мировым лидером по добыче нефти и газа». При этом они обещают не забывать и об охране окружающей среды и борьбе с изменением климата. Среди других задач на данном направлении, помимо обеспечения энергобезопасности, названы открытие рынков для американских товаров, услуг и инвестиций, продвижение выгодных для США торговых альянсов, включая трансатлантический и транстихоокеанский.

Чтобы преуспеть в геополитическом соперничестве XXI века, Америка, согласно новой стратегии, должна также лидировать в области научных исследований, технологий инноваций. «Мы будем защищать инновационную базу нашей национальной безопасности от тех, кто крадёт нашу интеллектуальную собственность и несправедливо пользуется инновациями свободных обществ», – подчёркивается в стратегии.

Ставка на силу

Что касается главных целей Соединённых Штатов в области национальной безопасности, то одной из них обозначено «сохранение мира посредством силы», то есть формулировка, применявшаяся в своё время выдвиженцем республиканской партии президентом Рональдом Рейганом. «Военная сила демонстрирует решимость США и даёт нам возможность воевать и победить в любом вероятном конфликте, который угрожает жизненно важным интересам США. Соединённые Штаты должны сохранять превосходство… Превосходство силы усиливает нашу дипломатию и позволяет нам формировать международную окружающую среду для защиты наших интересов», – говорится в стратегии.

Поддержал этот посыл и глава Пентагона Джеймс Мэттис. Выступая по случаю обнародования стратегии, он подчеркнул, что мощная армия США будет гарантировать, чтобы американские дипломаты «всегда говорили с позиции силы».

«При поддержке наших союзников и партнёров мы продолжим защищать наши общие интересы безопасности так же, как мы оберегаем Америку от тех, кто угрожает нашим свободам», – резюмировал Мэттис.

Кстати, по данным, которые были предоставлены изданию TomDispatch командованием специальных операций США, в 2017 году американские силы специальных операций, включая «морских котиков» и армейских «зелёных беретов», были развёрнуты в 149 странах мира. Это примерно 75 процентов всех государств планеты. Причём, подчёркивает издание, «почти или полностью отсутствует прозрачность в вопросе о том, что они делают в этих странах, укрепляют ли их действия безопасность или провоцируют ещё большую напряжённость и конфликты».

Нельзя не заметить в связи с этим, что в обновлённой стратегической установке сделан акцент на расширение присутствия американских вооружённых сил «передового базирования» различного предназначения практически по всему земному шару. В то же время перед Пентагоном поставлена задача разработать «новые оперативные концепции и развивать военные потенциалы с целью достижения победы в воздушном, космическом и кибернетическом пространствах, а также на море и суше». И уже в ближайшие дни, как ожидается, Пентагон обнародует новую военную стратегию США, в которой как раз и будут изложены положения о развитии и применении американских вооружённых сил в современных условиях.

Особое внимание в «Стратегии национальной безопасности США» обращено на важность укрепления и модернизации ракетно-ядерных вооружений и развития интегрированного потенциала противовоздушной и противоракетной обороны. При этом в документе упоминается готовность избегать рисков применения ядерного оружия и в общих чертах обозначена возможность ведения переговоров по новым соглашениям в сфере контроля над вооружениями с другими государствами, если они будут содействовать стратегической стабильности и будут проверяемыми.

Между тем именно Вашингтон либо сорвал достигнутые важные договорённости в названной области, либо отказался участвовать в их разработке. Необходимо отметить, что в настоящее время под угрозой отказа США от них находятся Договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности и Договор по открытому небу, что, естественно, ещё более усугубит международную ситуацию.

США намерены израсходовать до 2026 года 400 млрд долларов на дальнейшую модернизацию стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений, а также заложить материальную основу для создания новой стратегической ядерной триады, на что запланировано выделить в ближайшие 30 лет до 1,2 трлн долларов.

Определённая часть из них пойдёт на оснащение модифицированных ракет подводного базирования «Трайдент Д5» ядерными боеголовками небольшой мощности. Сторонники контроля над вооружениями выразили тревогу по поводу нового предложения создать ядерное оружие малой мощности, что делает более вероятным начало боевых действий с его использованием, поскольку понижает порог применения ядерного оружия. Здесь также следует учитывать, что новая американская корректируемая авиабомба В-61-12 уже разработана под такие условия, поскольку имеет максимальный ядерный боезаряд мощностью 50 килотонн и минимальный – 0,3 килотонны.

Помимо разработки новых ядерных боеприпасов уменьшенной мощности, также будет расширен перечень условий, при которых возможно применение американского ядерного арсенала. По сообщениям СМИ, в него войдёт ответ на неядерное нападение, приводящее к массовым жертвам, а также удары по стратегической инфраструктуре, ядерным объектам и пунктам управления. Говоря о других направлениях наращивания военного потенциала США, следует отметить, что незадолго до обнародования новой стратегии руководство управления по ПРО Пентагона указало на важность развёртывания дополнительных информационно-разведывательных средств и производства ракет-перехватчиков для обеспечения глобальной системы перехвата баллистических и крылатых ракет. Было объявлено о том, что министерство обороны США работает над более эффективными средствами обнаружения ложных боезарядов баллистических ракет и разрабатывает боевые ударные вооружения с использованием направленной энергии, включая элементы космического базирования. Зафиксировано положение, что средства ПРО США должны иметь возможность перехватывать ракеты на ранней стадии их запуска.

Дональд Трамп намерен также укрепить силы быстрого реагирования и объединённые силы повышенной оперативной готовности НАТО, довести корабельный состав американских ВМС до 355 кораблей. При этом упор в развитии ВМС делается на строительство кораблей океанской зоны действия, ударных подводных лодок и амфибийно-десантных кораблей. По плану Трампа в ближайшие восемь лет флот США должен получить 80 новых кораблей, включая 2 авианосца, 17 эсминцев типа «Арли Берк» с системой ПРО «Иджис» и 16 субмарин класса «Вирджиния».

В новой стратегии США подтверждено решение ряда предыдущих саммитов трансатлантического альянса о том, что все без исключения входящие в него страны должны выйти на двухпроцентный уровень финансового вклада от своего ВВП в его консолидированный бюджет к 2024 году.

Россия и КНР объявлены державами-соперницами

В большом военно-политическом разделе 68-страничного документа особо выделены две мировые державы, «бросающие вызов американской мощи, влиянию и интересам». Это Китайская Народная Республика и Российская Федерация. Причём в этой части КНР указана на первом месте. В целом же китайскому государству уделено в новой стратегии повышенное внимание и вообще, и относительно других стран мира.

КНР и Россия обвиняются в том, что они разрабатывают передовые образцы вооружений и наращивают военные потенциалы, которые могут угрожать критически важной инфраструктуре, а также системе управления и командования США. Российская Федерация одновременно подвергнута критике за «вторжение» в Грузию и на Украину, а также за то, что видит для себя угрозу со стороны НАТО и Евросоюза.

Россия и КНР также названы «ревизионистскими державами», что вряд ли свидетельствует о настрое нынешней американской администрации на деле нормализовать с нашей страной отношения, низведённые практически до нулевой отметки ещё в период президентства Барака Обамы. Москва необоснованно обвинена в размещении ядерного оружия и наступательных потенциалов «передового базирования», хотя хорошо известно, что всеми этими действиями активно занимаются США и ведущие страны НАТО у российских рубежей.

Значительное внимание в нём уделено развитию ракетно-ядерного потенциала КНДР, который, как утверждается, может доставлять не только ядерное, но и химическое и биологическое оружие, и который несёт в себе «угрозу» Соединённым Штатам и их союзникам. Северная Корея также обвиняется в дестабилизации обстановки в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе в целом. Примерно за полмесяца до обнародования этой стратегии советник президента по национальной безопасности генерал-лейтенант Герберт Макмастер назвал Северную Корею самой большой угрозой для США и обвинил северокорейского лидера в том, что он постепенно приближается к созданию полной материальной основы ядерного сдерживания. «Стратегия национальной безопасности США» оставляет открытой возможность применения военной силы против Пхеньяна.

Государством, проводящим различные формы деструктивной политики в районе Ближнего Востока, назван Иран. При этом он обвинён в дестабилизации региональной обстановки. Особым нападкам со стороны США подвергается ядерная сделка с Тегераном, оформленная в виде «Совместного всеобъемлющего плана действий», который подписан Ираном, Россией, США, Китаем, Францией, Великобританией и Германией в 2015 году. «Президент пообещал, что он либо исправит соглашение, либо отменит его», – пояснил госсекретарь США Рекс Тиллерсон. Сейчас Белый дом обсуждает с конгрессом варианты «исправления». Итоговый вариант будет презентован в течение нескольких дней.

«Есть три группы бросающих нам вызов: Китай и Россия с их ревизионистскими устремлениями, государства-изгои Иран и Северная Корея и организации транснационального характера, в частности джихадистские террористические группы. Все они активно действуют против США, наших союзников и партнёров. Хотя они отличаются по своей природе, все они бросают нам вызов в политической, экономической и военной сфере», – делается вывод в документе.

Доктрина «холодной войны»

Дональд Трамп охарактеризовал новую «Стратегию национальной безопасности США» как документ, основанный на «принципиальном реализме». При этом он одновременно признал, что Соединённые Штаты вступили «в новую эпоху соперничества». Американский президент прямо назвал Россию и КНР «державами-соперницами» США.

Новая стратегия по – прежнему ставит задачу продолжения политики вмешательства Вашингтона во внутренние дела других государств путём применения широкого набора силовых методов и инструментов. И это несмотря на то, что ещё в период предвыборной кампании Дональд Трамп многократно и помпезно обещал не вмешиваться во внутренние дела других государств, а сконцентрироваться на решении проблем, имеющих внутринациональное измерение.

После его вступления в должность Соединённые Штаты стали в ещё большей степени вторгаться во внутреннюю компетенцию других государств, где, по мнению Вашингтона, правят «несостоятельные лидеры». Практика таких вторжений возросла в отношении Ирана, Ливии, России, Север-ной Кореи, Сирии и ряда других стран.

С учётом этого и целого ряда изложенных положений обновлённой американской стратегии в Российской Федерации увидели в ней иное значение и возможные негативные последствия её реализации, не связанные с описанным «реализмом». На расширенном заседании Коллегии Министерства обороны РФ, состоявшемся 22 декабря 2017 года, Президент России Владимир Путин назвал новую американскую стратегию как имеющую «наступательный» и «безусловно агрессивный характер». Он также заявил, что Россия должна учитывать это.

Критически резко встретили американскую стратегию 2017 года и в КНР. Китайские официальные представители заявили, что этим документом Вашингтон возрождает атмосферу и образ мышления времён «холодной войны». «Манипуляция фактами и распространение злостной клеветы не приведёт к успеху ни одну страну», – сказал, в частности, представитель китайского МИДа Хуа Чуньин. И добавил, что Пекин призывает США перестать извращать стратегические инициативы Китая и использовать устаревшие подходы времён «холодной войны» и идеи антагонистической игры.

Куда более воинственной, нежели при администрации Барака  Обамы, назвала новую стратегию США и британская газета «Гардиан». В таком же ключе охарактеризовали её и многие другие западные СМИ, а также эксперты. Суммируя ключевые особенности новой стратегии в сфере национальной безопасности США, можно выйти на неутешительный вывод, что она вряд ли послужит основой для укрепления стабильности в интересах всех государств и основой для радикального выправления российско-американских отношений, которые целенаправленными действиями нескольких последних военно-политических лидеров Со- единённых Штатов отброшены в глухой тупик.

Автор:  Владимир Козин, Источник: “Красная звезда”

Академик АВН Козин: Россия должна принять стратегию нанесения превентивного ядерного удара

Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин считает, что агрессивные действия США и их союзников по НАТО и G7 вынуждают Россию отказаться от стратегии не нанесения превентивного ядерного удара и вывести своих вооружения в космос.

«Неназванные официальные лица» из Пентагона говорят о нанесении «обезглавливающего удара» по Кремлю, то есть фактически они угрожают «физическим устранением» президента России Владимира Путина, заявил ранее глава МИД России Сергей Лавров.

Член экспертного совета Общероссийской организации «Офицеры России» капитан 1-го ранга Василий Дандыкин считает такие планы следствием плохого настроения в администрации США и в Пентагоне. Связывает это эксперт с ухудшением ситуации для ВСУ и натовских военных на фронтах СВО.

«Западные политики нервно на это реагируют, потому что объективно все склоняется к тому, что даже небольшие успехи наших войск, включая и добровольцев, и "музыкантов", в скором времени приведут к гораздо большим успехам», - уверен Василий Дандыкин.

Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ (АВН) Владимир Козин называет подобные высказывания чиновников Пентагона тревожным сигналом из-за океана. По его словам, «даже бесноватый Гитлер в пору поражений на фронтах Великой отечественной войны не угрожал нанести удар по Кремлю с целью уничтожения советского руководства».

Отвечать на такие заявления, считает членкор АВН, нужно жестко и немедленно. Как минимум, нужно вызвать американского посла в МИД, и сделать ему жёсткое представление. Но не лишним будет и отозвать посла РФ Антонова из Вашингтона домой для консультации на неопределённое время, считает он.

Помимо дипломатических мер Россия, отметил эксперт, должна ответить военно-техническими мерами: прежде всего, привести в повышенное состояние боеготовности ракетно-ядерные силы.

«Потому что стрелять американцы по Кремлю будут не из рогаток, а дальнобойными системами. И вполне может быть, что и ракетно-ядерными», - заявил Владимир Козин.

Возможностей у США для нанесения ядерного удара по России более чем достаточно, отметил эксперт. По его словам, тактическое ядерное оружие США размещено во многих натовских государствах Европы, включая Прибалтику и Польшу, у которых имеются средства доставки тактических корректируемых высокоточных авиабомб. Межконтинентальные баллистические ракеты наземного базирования на 99, 99% находятся в состояние боевой готовности, и направлены он, естественно, против нас. Половина из списочного состава американских подводных ракетоносцев находятся в Мировом океане, а тяжелая стратегическая авиация США уже давно освоила воздушное пространство натовских союзников на европейском континенте.

«Страны НАТО предоставили американской стороне 19 своих военных аэродромов для подскока, как говорят военные, для временного базирования, и они тоже находятся в состояние повышенной боевой готовности для нанесения первого ядерного удара», - отметил Владимир Козин.

В таких условиях, считает членкор АВН, Россия должна изменить свою ядерную стратегию, внеся в нее положения о нанесения первого упреждающего и превентивного ядерного удара.

«Жизнь требует, чтобы мы провозгласили свои новые военные стратегии нанесения первого упреждающего и превентивного ядерного удара, не обозначая, против кого будут направлены. Ясно, что они будут против потенциальных агрессоров, которые, это можно сказать, сегодня имеют проговоренное в их стратегиях право нанесения первого ядерного удара по РФ, Китайской народной республике, Ирану, Северной Корее и другим странам», - отметил Владимир Козин.

Помимо этого, считает эксперт, Россия должна выйти из договоров о взаимном сдерживании, заключенных с США, как ранее это уже делала американская администрация. По его словам, от этих договоров мало уже чего осталось после того как президент Дональд Трамп вышел из 4-х двухсторонних и многосторонних соглашений по контролю над вооружением, включая договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности 1987 года. Ранее президент Джордж Буш старший вышел из договора об ограничении средств противоракетной обороны. В таких условиях, отметил членкор АВН, Россия имеет полное право не соблюдать существующие российско-американские договоренности по контролю над вооружениями.

«Первое: мы должны выйти в одностороннем порядке из договора СНВ-3. Второе: мы не должны обсуждать с американской стороной основные параметры договоры СНВ-4. Третье: мы не должны показывать американским инспекторским группам свои перспективные виды вооружения, о которых говорил наш президент еще в марте 2018 года. Он назвал тогда шесть видов вооружения, позднее появился седьмой - гиперзвуковые ракеты, которых у других государств пока нет, а американцы ставят вопрос, чтобы мы уничтожили именно их», - пояснил Владимир Козин.

Россия, по его мнению, в связи с агрессией против нас 50 стран мира, имеет полное право отказаться от соблюдения основного принципа международного космического права, который гласит, что оружие массового поражения не должно выводиться в космическое пространство выше 100 км от уровня Мирового океана.

«Коль скоро ситуация складывается таким самым опасным образом, когда нам угрожают, когда ракетно-ядерное оружие США и их союзников находится в зоне средств передового базирования – то есть у наших дверей и нашего порога, то, конечно, мы должны вывести свои ударные космические вооружения», - заявил Владимир Козин.

Речь, по его словам, идет о двух видах вооружений: космос-космос, то есть противоспутниковых системах, и космос-земля - ударных космических вооружениях, предназначенных для поражения объектов, расположенных на земле, в воздушном околоземном пространстве или в мировом океане.

Предложенных мер, по мнению эксперта, будет достаточно, чтобы обезопасить нашу страну от агрессивных действий США и их союзников по НАТО. Наличие у России ракетно-ядерных вооружений, которые достигают цели со скоростью, в 27 раз превышающую скорость звука, которые не в состоянии перехватить ни одна натовская система противоракетной обороны, снимает необходимость возвращения к работе над биологическим или химическим оружием, от чего Россия отказалась много лет назад, считает Владимир Козин.

Беседовал Алексей Соколов. Источник: РИА ФАН

 

Академик Козин: применение ядерного оружия в любом конфликте приведет к глобальной катастрофе

Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин рассказал в эфире медиацентра «Патриот» об угрозах, которые несет безопасности РФ американское тактическое ядерное оружие. По его словам, объемы тактического оружия в отличие от стратегического не регламентируются договорами между РФ и США, что дает возможность последним размещать его в Европе в любых количествах. Россия же возможности размещать свое тактическое оружие у границ США не имеет.

Специалисты Ратгерского университета (США) спрогнозировали последствия ядерной войны между Западом и Россией. Согласно результатам исследования, опубликованного в журнале Nature Food, конфликт с применением оружия массового поражения приведет к немедленной смерти 400 миллионов человек и последующей гибели 5 миллиардов от голода.

Владимир Козин не считает эти прогнозы пустыми страшилками. По его словам, применение арсенала ядерного вооружения США и России приведет к глобальной катастрофе на планете.

«Может наступить или ядерная зима, как это показано в известном американском фильме, или ядерное лето, когда выгорит вся атмосфера, защищающая землю от губительных лучей солнца, и солнце просто сожжет землю», — заявил Владимир Козин.

По его словам, о том, с какими последствиями столкнутся выжившие люди, хорошо рассказывают истории японцев, переживших атомную бомбардировку во время Второй мировой войны.

«Все, кто находился в непосредственной близости от места взрыва, даже более-менее отдаленной, все равно очень сильно пострадали от радиации, лейкемии, от ожогов, от всего чего угодно. Это были уже не люди, а какие-то ходячие смертники», — рассказал Владимир Козин.

Нынешние боезаряды имеют гораздо большие мощности, чем у бомб, сброшенных на Хиросиму и Нагасаки, поэтому взаимный удар США и России, по словам эксперта, приведет к гибели сотен тысяч людей. Не меньшую угрозу человечеству несут атаки ВСУ по Запорожской АЭС или применение даже в ограниченном масштабе тактического ядерного оружия.

«Это крайне опасно не только для обороняющегося, но и для нападающего, потому что тот, против кого применили ядерное оружие применит в ответ ядерное оружие обязательно. Это соответствует российской ядерной доктрине. Поэтому пострадает значительная часть населения, флора и фауна обеих сторон», — отметил Владимир Козин.

Эксперт отметил сложность, связанную с наличием тактического ядерного оружия у США и их союзников по НАТО в Европе. По его словам, сейчас неизвестно, какие объемы тактического ядерного оружия США размещены в Европе, но оно точно имеется у пяти натовских государств — Бельгии, Нидерландов, Италии, Германия и Турции. Кроме этого, США могут оснащать им тяжелые бомбардировщики и комбинированные истребители-бомбардировщики ряда стран-членов НАТО, выдвинутых поближе к российской территории и занятых в операции военно-воздушных сил НАТО под названием «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование».

«Там самолеты двойного назначения, которые, я предполагаю, имеют тактическое ядерное оружие, но мы не может проверить это», — заявил Владимир Козин.

Вдобавок, США ведут практически ежедневное патрулирование стратегической ядерной авиацией в небе Европы, для этого европейские партнеры США предоставили американским военным 19 военных аэродромов, отметил эксперт.

В то же время Россия тактического ядерного оружия на американском континенте или близ него не имеет. Более того, действующая американская ядерная стратегия предусматривает 14 оснований или причин применения американцами ядерного оружия, не оговаривая, стратегического оно или тактического назначения, а у России закреплено в доктрине только два основания.

«Простым языком, американцы в любое время, по любому государству мира, под надуманным предлогом, по принципу: что хочу, то и ворочу — могут применить ядерное оружие. Поэтому они, не стесняясь, и говорят о возможности применения тактических боезарядов, особенно, малой мощности. Но любой взрыв заряда малой мощности — это до 5 килотонн, и естественно, это приведет к эскалации ядерного конфликта», — рассказал Владимир Козин.

По словам эксперта, все разговоры, что в современном мире возможно ведение ограниченной ядерной войны, являются бердом сумасшедшего. Любая война с применением ядерного оружия приведет к тотальной ядерной катастрофе, считает он.

Источник: РИА ФАН

 

Академик РАВН Козин предлагает испытывать новейшие виды вооружений у границ США

Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ (РАВН) Владимир Козин в эфире пресс-центра медиагруппы «Патриот» призвал Россию заставить страны НАТО остановить поставки тяжелых наступательных вооружений киевскому режиму.

Напомним, в пятницу на базе Рамштайн в ФРГ пройдет встреча так называемых партнеров Украины, где будет обсуждаться позиция стран, представляющих Киеву тяжелое наступательное вооружение. Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин считает, что страны НАТО наращивают поставки вооружения киевскому режиму потому, что не боятся ответной реакции со стороны России.

«Натовские страны поставляют на Украину тяжелые виды смертоносных вооружений, и с каждым разом их качество растет, типы улучшаются, разнообразие расширяется по одной простой причине — мы не все делаем для того, чтобы они туда не поставлялись», — заявил Владимир Козин.

По его словам, Россия не отвечает на размещение тактического ядерного оружия вдоль наших границ, не отвечает на учения США и их союзников по НАТО с имитацией применения тактического ядерного оружия вблизи Калининградской области.

«Два десятка натовских аэродромов европейских государств готовы для того, чтобы американские тяжелые стратегические бомбардировщики использовали их в качестве дозаправки, подскока и следования дальше к российским рубежам. Американский тяжелый стратегический бомбардировщик Б-52H с территории Украины еще до нашей специальной военной операции приближался к Российской Федерации в районе Ростовской области на территорию до 20 километров. Те же самые американские тяжелые бомбардировщики бомбили учебными ядерными зарядами ракетами литовский полигон около Калининградской области. Они не боятся нас, потому что то же самое не происходит с нашей стороны на территории европейских государств, которые входят в НАТО, и территории континентальной части США», — пояснил Владимир Козин.

Не боятся Россию в НАТО также потому, что наша военная доктрина не предусматривает первого ядерного удара. Чтобы хоть как-то остудить воинственный пыл натовских генералов, эксперт предлагает внести в военную доктрину Российской Федерации положение о возможности нанесения первого ядерного удара по противнику.

«У американцев есть стратегия нанесения первого ядерного удара. В Великобритании то же самое: программы применения ядерного оружия у Великобритании и США абсолютно одинаковы. Франция немножко колеблется при Макроне открыто говорить, применит ли она ядерное оружие. Но все равно известно, что натовская страна Франция, имеющая и стратегическое, и тактическое ядерное оружие, может применить его против нас в первом ядерном ударе», — рассказал Владимир Козин.

Академик РАВН считает, что представители российской стороны по контролю над вооружениями должны придерживаться более жесткой позиции. По его мнению, в связи с нарастанием агрессии со стороны Запада на руководящие посты различных направлений по контролю над вооружениями должны быть назначены переговорщики, способные проводить жесткую политику в адрес наших оппонентов.

«В МИДе руководители этих направлений должны подбираться очень тщательно, потому что американцы нас обманывают и постоянно будут нас обманывать», — отметил Владимир Козин.

Академик РАВН предлагает не обращать внимание на шумиху в западных СМИ по поводу испытания подводного носителя ядерного оружия «Посейдон». По его словам, Россия собирается испытывать не ядерное оружие, а всего лишь его носитель, на который не распространяются подписанные соглашения с американцами. «Посейдон» это морской подводный носитель ядерного оружия. Никто не имеет никакого права запретить нам испытывать его. Где хотим там и испытываем. Но, естественно, без ядерного оружия», — отметил Владимир Козин.

Источник: РИА ФАН

 

 

Академик РАВН Козин: США разместили в Европе больше 400 ядерных зарядов для удара по России

Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ (РАВН) Владимир Козин назвал в эфире пресс-центре медиагруппы «Патриот», причины размещения тактического ядерного оружия (ТЯО) в Белоруссии, и рассказал, при каких условиях оно может вернуться.

Ранее президент России Владимир Путин объявил, что Москва и Минск договорились о размещении ТЯО в Белоруссии. Он подчеркнул, что это решение не противоречит условиям Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия. При этом Евросоюз и НАТО заявили о несогласии с этим решением Москвы, хотя ядерное оружие НАТО размещено по всему периметру границ России.

По словам члена-корреспондента Козина, представители НАТО лгут, обвиняя Россию, поскольку ядерного оружия бывшего СССР или российского производства на территории белорусской республики нет, и сейчас РФ не передает Белоруссии это оружие, а всего лишь размещает, ровно так, как это делают США на территории своих европейских союзников. Командно-управленческие функции за этой частью тактического ядерного арсенала России, подчеркнул эксперт, останутся в руках российского военно-политического руководства.

Размещение тактического ядерного оружия, по словам эксперта, преследует несколько целей. Во-первых, увеличение оборонительных и наступательных ядерных средств в этой части Европы с целью уравновешивания сил по данным видам вооружения. Американцы, напомнил военный эксперт, с середины 1950-х годов разместили и до сих пор держат свое тактическое ядерное оружие на территории четырех европейских натовских государств: Бельгии, Нидерландов, Италии, Германия и на азиатской части Турции. Во-вторых, размещение тактического ядерного оружия на белорусской земле призвано сбалансировать соотношение сил по американским ядерным средствам передового базирования.

Эксперт предполагает, что тактическое ядерное оружие уже находится на территории Польши, Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии. Эти четыре государства участвуют в натовской операции ВВС Балтийское воздушное патрулирование с самолетами двойного назначения F15, F16 и новым истребителем-бомбардировщиком F35, которые сертифицированы под доставку ядерных боеприпасов. Кроме этого в Балтийское и Северное моря часто заходят корабельные группировки ВМС НАТО, развернутые в Средиземноморье, отметил он.

«В-третьих, тактическое ядерное оружие, размещенное в Белоруссии, будет сдерживать возможные агрессивные аппетиты НАТО, если там вдруг действительно вознамерятся, как угрожал много раз Зеленский, вернуть себе Донбасс, Крым и дальше напасть на остальные территории РФ», — пояснил Владимир Козин.

Член-корреспондент РАВН считает решение российского руководства правильным и своевременным. Возмущение бывших европейских партнеров РФ по данному поводу эксперт считает «пустым нытьем хулигана», который спровоцировал собеседника на ответные действия и теперь шумно приходит в чувство. Чтобы у европейцев ушел страх перед русским ядерным оружием, им достаточно отправить тактическое ядерное оружие США на континентальную Америку и ликвидировать инфраструктуру для его складирования в Европе, а также прекратить операцию Балтийское воздушное патрулирование, которая имеет потенциал доставки тактического ядерного оружия против РФ. Только тогда, может быть, Россия ответит на призыв Франции отказаться от принятого решения разместить ядерное оружие в Белоруссии, отметил Владимир Козин.

Опыт разрешения подобных острых военных кризисов, по его словам, есть. Например, после Карибского кризиса из Турции и Италии были вывезены американские баллистические ракеты средней дальности класса «Юпитер» мегатонного класса. СССР в свою очередь убрал свои ядерные ракеты, размещенные на Кубе. Однако американцы в тот раз все-таки слукавили, навязав туркам размещение на базе Инджирлик авиабомб свободного падения, которые идут по разряду тактического ядерного вооружения, и до сих пор они находятся там, напомнил Владимир Козин.

Американское тактическое ядерное оружие, размещенное в Европе, представляет большую опасность для России, потому что являются средствами первого ядерного удара, так же как и стратегическое ядерное оружие. По словам академика, западные эксперты оценивают их количество в пяти названных выше натовских государствах, являющихся де факто и де юре безъядерными, в пределах 180 до 200 авиабомб. Однако в действительности их в два раза больше, уверен Владимир Козин.

«Что бы ни говорили на Западе, как бы ни вякали в их поддержку наши российские диванные эксперты, мы не можем сопоставить соотношение сил по тактическому ядерному оружию. Но по моим оценкам, у американцев в Европе не 200 ядерных боезарядов тактического значения, а вдвое больше — 400. Плюс я туда включаю самолеты двойного назначения, которые используются в натовской операции Балтийское воздушное патрулирование, к которым сейчас добавилась операция Балканского воздушного патрулирования с участием Румынии и Болгарии», — заявил Владимир Козин.

В то же время, пока у России есть мощная стратегическая ядерная триада, эксперт не видит больших проблем в том, что США нарастили такой большой арсенал тактического ядерного оружия в Европе. По его словам, любое использование этого оружия против России приведет к немедленным ответным действиям с нашей стороны в адрес США. И это, надеется академик РАВН, хорошо понимают в американской администрации. Россия применять ядерное тоже не собирается: у наших военных, отметил эксперт, достаточно других вооружений, чтобы нанести поражение НАТО на Украине.

«Жду не дождусь, когда они начнут свое последнее контрнаступление, чтобы посмотреть, как их уничтожат», — заявил Владимир Козин.

Академик РАВН также надеется, что российские военные, наконец, начнут применять против ВСУ и натовских наемников мощные авиабомбы с обычными боезарядами стратегического назначения, «которые превратят в пыль все транспортные коммуникации, по которым доставляется западное вооружение на Украину».

 

Альянс на двоих

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “Специальный репортаж” на телеканале “Звезда”.

«Как можно судить по сделанным заявлениям со стороны Минска и Москвы, мы уже имеем региональную вооруженную группировку – совместную. И эта группировка будет усилена в еще большей степени с учетом растущих угроз со стороны НАТО».

Эфир от 9 ноября 2021 г.

Американская ПРО в Японии: удар по региональной и глобальной стабильности

Размещение ПРО в Японии осложняет российско-японский политический диалог

По сообщению оборонного ведомства Японии 11 августа этого года, министры обороны США и Японии Джеймс Мэттис и Ицунори Онодэра в телефонном разговоре подтвердили, что будут продолжать сотрудничать с целью размещения на японской территории двух наземных противоракетных комплексов американского производства типа «Иджис Эшор», которые, как утверждается, будут оказывать противодействие северокорейской ракетно-ядерной угрозе, до сих пор, как считают в Вашингтоне и Токио, не снятой с повестки дня.

Боевой информационно-управляющая система (БИУС) «Иджис Эшор» – это наземный вариант американского универсального корабельного комплекса «Иджис», состоящего из РЛС, вычислительного блока, систем наведения на цели и ракет различного предназначения. В ходе многочисленных испытаний морской вариант этой системы показал до 82% успешных перехватов учебных баллистических и крылатых ракет меньшей, средней и даже межконтинентальной дальности.

Таким образом, обе стороны подтвердили принятое еще в декабре прошлого года правительством Японии решение о размещении на севере и юго-западе острова Хонсю двух таких комплексов, суммарный ударно-боевой компонент которых составит 48 ракет-перехватчиков класса «SM-3», способных перехватывать баллистические и крылатые ракеты на большой высоте и на значительном удалении от расположения системы из перехвата. Заявлялось, что они будут установлены ориентировочно на японской территории к 2023 году. Но затягивание договоренности между КНДР и США о ликвидации ракетно-ядерной программы Пхеньяна вполне может скорректировать эти сроки в сторону сокращения временного рубежа их полного развертывания. Представители министерства обороны Японии уже заявили, что эти сроки могут быть существенно пересмотрены в сторону уменьшения, если военно-политическая обстановка в регионе ухудшится. При этом было сообщено, что размещение названных комплексов обойдется японским налогоплательщикам примерно в 268 млрд. иен или приблизительно в 2,4 млрд. долларов.

Итак, после установки двух указанных комплексов «Страна восходящего солнца» станет третьим государством в мире после Румынии и Польши, которые уже имеют (Румыния) или будут иметь на своей территории подобную систему перехвата баллистических и крылатых ракет (Польша). Скорее всего, как и аналогичный оперативный американский комплекс ПРО, уже введенный в действие в 2016 году на румынской авиабазе Девеселу, его японские «собраться» также будут контролироваться Пентагоном. Такое предположение можно сделать по аналогии с американо-румынским соглашением об использовании этого комплекса в Румынии. А оно предусматривает полный контроль над его боевым применением со стороны Вашингтона. «Принимающей стороне» доверяется лишь охрана внешнего периметра такой оперативной базы и осуществление некоторых ограниченных функций тылового обеспечения.

Оба союзные тихоокеанские государства уже давно тесно взаимодействуют в создании и размещении ударно-боевых и информационно-разведывательных элементов глобальной системы ПРО США на японских островах. Такое сотрудничество проявляется в четырех измерениях.

Токио дал согласие на дислокацию различных вариантов американской системы ПВО/ПРО «Пэтриот» на своей территории. задолго до завязывания широкого противоракетного сотрудничества с Вашингтоном, которое датируется 2005 годом. Во время поездки в Японию еще в 1995 году автору этих строк довелось увидеть их многочисленные установки на многих военных объектах страны. Впоследствии они были заменены на усовершенствованный вариант системы ПВО/ПРО «Пэтриот» «РАС-3 MSE» с расширенной зоной поражения.

Японское руководство также оснастило четыре своих эсминца УРО класса «Конгоу» американским вариантом системы «Иджис» морского базирования, которая уже давно была протестирована в ходе совместных американо-японских учений, регулярно проводимых в зоне Тихого океана с целью проверки эффективности ее ракет-перехватчиков. Токио также приступил к такому же оснащению двух эсминцев класса «Атаго» («Атаго» и Ашигара»), общее количество которых будет доведено до четырех единиц.

Программа закупки и установки ракет-перехватчиков «SM-3 модификации IIA» морского базирования должна быть завершена к 2020 финансовому году. Японское военное ведомство утверждает, что вся территория страны будет прикрыта «противоракетным щитом» к 2021 году.

Информационно-разведывательное взаимодействие в интересах ПРО, в частности, проявляется в виде уже установленных в Японии двух американских РЛС предупреждения о ракетном нападении «AN/TPY-2», которые относятся к разряду элементов передового базирования Соединенных Штатов.

Кроме того, Япония и Соединенные Штаты являются соучастниками процесса разработки и создания ударно-боевых противоракетных средств. Так, Токио является головным разработчиком пяти ключевых компонентов самой усовершенствованной ракеты-перехватчика «SM-3 модификации IIA», производимой американскими оружейными корпорациями, в то время как Соединенные Штаты – только четырех ее элементов. В феврале и июне 2017 года ВМС США и Японии провели совместные учения по перехвату баллистических ракет с использованием противоракеты «SM-3 модификации IIA». 

Россия и Китай уже выступили против подобного наращивания комбинированных средств противоракетной обороны с участием США и Японии. Критическими заявления с российской стороны в адрес планов Вашингтона и Токио о дополнительном наращивании ударно-боевых компонентов глобальной системы ПРО США в виде БИУС «Иджис Эшор» сделали два заместителя министра иностранных дел, которые курируют американское и азиатско-тихоокеанское направления внешней политики России.

В этих заявлениях было обращено внимание на то, что эта система представляет собой комплекс «двойного назначения», из универсальных пусковых установок «Мк-41» которых могут осуществляться пуски не только оборонительных типов вооружений в виде ракет-перехватчиков системы ПРО, но и ударных крылатых ракет наземного базирования (КРНБ) в ядерном снаряжении класса «Томагавк», создание и размещение которых запрещено в соответствии с бессрочным Договором о ликвидации ядерных ракет средней и меньшей дальности, пописанным между Москвой и Вашингтоном в декабре 1987 года. То есть, помимо еще одного шага в направлении создания полноценного сегмента американской глобальной ПРО в АТР это будет означать и риск обретения Японией качественно нового военного потенциала, поскольку поставляемые в составе комплекса «Иджис Эшор» универсальные пусковые установки вертикального пуска будут способны применять ударные вооружения наступательного характера.

Хотя Япония не является участником такого договорного акта, она, тем не менее, соглашаясь с размещением американской БИУС «Иджис Эшор» на своей земле, будет оказывать Соединенным Штатам прямое содействие в его нарушении.

Разъяснения японской стороны о том, что американская система «Иджис Эшор» не может быть использована для загрузки в ее пусковые установки «Мк-41» крылатых ракет наземного базирования не соответствуют действительности, поскольку их диаметр позволяет беспрепятственно размещать в них и оборонительные, и наступательные виды вооружений. Заметим, что морской вариант БИУС «Иджис» позволяет загружать в ее пусковые установки четыре типа ракет, а именно ракеты-перехватчики системы ПРО, ракеты противовоздушной и противолодочной обороны, а также противокорабельные ракеты. При этом для их выборочного запуска не требуется переустановка программного обеспечения, так как все в этом плане предусмотрено и установлено заранее под каждый вид ракет.

В российских демаршах по этому поводу было также обращено внимание на то, что намеченное развертывание БИУС США «Иджис Эшор» в Японии окажет негативное влияние на атмосферу российско-японских отношений и, соответственно, на работу по заключению мирного договора между Москвой и Токио, а также не приблизит его подписание.

В заявлениях китайской стороны по этому вопросу отмечалось, что реакция китайского правительства на подобные действия японской стороны будет неизменной и однозначной, поскольку проблема размещения в Японии дополнительной системы ПРО грозит отразиться на всеобщей безопасности.

Не вызывает сомнения, что и американские ракеты-перехватчики класса «SM-3», которые будут установлены в рамках БИУС «Иджис Эшор», и КРНБ США, которые появятся на японской земле в пусковых установках в таких же системах, могут быть использованы против оборонных интересов как Российской Федерации и КНР, так и против КНДР.

Следует также добавить к этому еще два существенных обстоятельства.

Первое. Развертывая два наемных комплекса системы ПРО США стратегического назначения на японских островах, Вашингтон и Токио усиливают наиболее эффективный элемент своей комбинированной эшелонированной противоракетной инфраструктуры, способный перехватывать летящие баллистические и крылатые ракеты на большой высоте и на значительных расстояниях.

Второе. Начиная с мая 2012 года во всех без исключения итоговых документах саммитов НАТО содержится положение об «адекватном» сочетании ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных видов вооружений этого альянса. Поэтому, прямое участие Японии в развертывании противоракетного компонента глобальной системы ПРО США является соучастием в «чикагской триаде», то есть в оперативно-стратегическом механизме крупнейшего в мире трансатлантического военного союза, о котором идет речь, созданном на встрече стран-участниц Североатлантического союза в верхах в Чикаго шесть лет тому назад. Разумеется, такой механизм не отменил традиционную ядерную триаду Соединенных Штатов, которая в скором времени претерпит коренные изменения: она получит качественно новые образцы ракетно-ядерных вооружений.

С другой стороны, нельзя сбрасывать со счетов и связанный с такой особенностью следующий фактор: все ядерные стратегии Соединенных Штатов, в том числе и та, которая была утверждена в период президентства Дональда Трампа в текущем году, имеют положение о «расширенном ядерном сдерживании», то есть установку о раскрытии американского «ядерного зонтика» над группой неядерных государств, не входящих в НАТО, в том числе и над Японией.

На фоне обозначенных факторов и фактов возникает вполне логичный вопрос: коль скоро вся территория страны будет полностью прикрыта «противоракетным щитом» именно к 2021 году, то зачем создавать еще один дополнительный противоракетный раздражитель стратегического назначения в виде размещения системы ПРО «Иджис Эшор» к этому рубежу? Не осложнит ли такой шаг переговоры, ведущиеся между КНДР и США по ракетно-ядерной программе Пхеньяна?

Каким бы ни было разъяснение японской стороны, описанное соучастие Токио в усилении стратегической системы ПРО США на японской земле неизбежно создаст новые дестабилизирующие элементы, ведущие к дальнейшему качественному осложнению военно-политической обстановки в обширном Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе, которая и без того остается сложной и нестабильной, а временами даже приобретает явно взрывоопасный характер.

Подобные шаги Токио одновременно подрывают баланс сил в этой части земного шара, который давно уже нельзя считать устойчивым, адекватным сложившейся ситуации и уравновешенным между различными группами государств. Это удар по региональной и глобальной стабильности.

Описанные действия японской стороны, ведущие к наращиванию американской комбинированной оборонительно-наступательной угрозы на ее территории, одновременно подрывают ее безъядерный статус, которому она на словах пока привержена.

Автор: Владимир Козин, профессор Академии военных наук России, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России;

Источник: InfoRos

Американская сторона продолжает занимать неконструктивную позицию

Аргументы представительства США при НАТО в Брюсселе не снимают озабоченности действиями Пентагона

Отказ от Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности приведёт к слому всей мировой архитектуры контроля над вооружениями. Исходя из этого вывода, Россия последовательно предпринимала значительные усилия по спасению этого соглашения и неоднократно предлагала США вернуться к неукоснительному его соблюдению. Очередным подтверждением тому стали оглашённые в минувший четверг предложения Министерства обороны РФ.

Напомним, что эти предложения предусматривали следующий набор взаимосвязанных мер. В период до прекращения срока действия Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД) Соединённые Штаты должны возвратиться к его неукоснительному соблюдению путём уничтожения:

во-первых, универсальных пусковых установок Мк-41 наземного базирования, разработанных для запуска крылатых ракет класса «Томагавк»;

во-вторых, ракет-мишеней, аналогичных по своим характеристикам баллистическим ракетам наземного базирования средней и меньшей дальности;

в-третьих, ударных беспилотных летательных аппаратов, подпадающих по своим характеристикам под терминологическое определение «крылатая ракета наземного базирования», которое имеется в договоре.

Надо сказать, что американская сторона довольно оперативно, но отнюдь не в конструктивном ключе, отреагировала на эти предложения. Правда, в форме пресс-релиза постоянного представительства США при НАТО в Брюсселе. В нём изложена позиция США по всем трём крупным нарушениям договора, изложенным российской стороной.

Затронув вопрос о размещении на территории Румынии боевой информационной управляющей системы (БИУС) ПРО наземного базирования «Иджис эшор», американская сторона сделала намеренный акцент на том, что ДРСМД не запрещает установку в пусковых установках Мк-41 ракет-перехватчиков (это, действительно, соответствует действительности). Но в пресс-релизе постоянного представительства США при НАТО даётся заведомо искажённая информация, что в такие пусковые установки не могут устанавливаться крылатые ракеты наземного базирования (КРНБ), поскольку наземная БИУС, мол, не имеет соответствующего программного обеспечения, соответствующей системы управления огнём и иного вспомогательного оборудования.

Увы, имеет. Она имеет точно такой же набор обозначенных элементов как аналогичные БИУС морского базирования, устанавливаемые на двух типах американских боевых кораблей (крейсеры УРО типа «Тикондерога» и эсминцы УРО типа «Арли Бёрк»), поскольку изначально проектировалась и создавалась как универсальная система запуска ракет с различными функциональными боевыми задачами. Например, в универсальные пусковые установки БИУС ВМС США могут одновременно загружаться и использоваться по своему прямому предназначению противоракетные средства в виде ракет-перехватчиков плюс противокорабельные, противовоздушные и противолодочные ракеты.

Уже размещённая в Румынии и поставленная на боевое дежурство БИУС «Иджис эшор», копирующая аналогичную американскую корабельную систему, является также универсальной системой двойного назначения, способной размещать в её 24 пусковых установках ракеты оборонительного предназначения, то есть ракеты-перехватчики системы ПРО, а также ракеты наступательного характера, то есть КРНБ, которые не имеют никакого отношения к противоракетным вооружениям.

Американская сторона явно использует и маршевые двигатели для обеспечения большой дальности полёта ракет-мишеней

Коснувшись вопроса о баллистических ракетах-мишенях средней и меньшей дальности, которые используются Пентагоном с 1999 года при проверке эффективности системы ПРО, упомянутый американский пресс-релиз, во-первых, дал разъяснения только по баллистическим ракетам-мишеням, упустив из вида крылатые ракеты-мишени, которые также применяются в аналогичных целях – либо отдельно от баллистических ракет-мишеней, либо совместно с ними. Например, управление по ПРО министерства обороны США описало эпизод одновременного применения сразу пяти баллистических и крылатых ракет-мишеней для проверки возможности перехвата группового ракетного удара.

Во-вторых, документ содержит ссылку на пункт 12 статьи VII ДРСМД, который разрешает сторонам использовать для ускорительных средств только существующие типы ускорительных ступеней для названных ускорительных средств. Но американская сторона явно использует и маршевые двигатели для обеспечения большой дальности полёта ракет-мишеней, которые могут преодолевать расстояния от 500 до 5500 км. Но об этом – ни слова. Здесь же возникает дополнительный вопрос: а не оставили ли Соединённые Штаты двигатели-ускорители от уничтоженных ими к 1991 году ракет средней и меньшей дальности по условиям ДРСМД, или не создали ли они новые такие двигатели?

Не решают ли они при заявленной проверке эффективности ракет-перехватчиков сразу две задачи: проверку эффективности и системы ПРО и одновременно уже созданных новых ракет средней и меньшей дальности, запрещённых этим договором? Не предполагают ли в Пентагоне использовать новые ракеты средней и меньшей дальности для доставки ядерных боезарядов, например, малой мощности?

В американском пресс-релизе отмечается, что российская сторона стала впервые обращать внимание на появление ударных БПЛА в арсеналах вооружений США более 16 лет тому назад. Признаётся, что Пентагон действительно использует пять типов таких аппаратов, но относят их к средствам многоразового использования, напоминая, что баллистические и крылатые ракеты можно использовать лишь однократно. Именно на такой трактовке строится аргументация американских контрагентов, хотя ударные БПЛА вполне можно использовать также однократно, как и два типа названных ракет «одноразового использования». То есть загрузить в БПЛА программу с указанием вместе с взрывчатыми веществами как «беспилотнику-камикадзе» поразить заранее избранную цель.

Таким образом, ответ США, изложенный в пресс-релизе их дипломатического представительства при НАТО от 8 февраля, содержит весьма поверхностную и малоубедительную трактовку ДРСМД, которая, по мнению Вашингтона, позволяют ему нарушать его по всем трём обозначенным выше направлениям, вызывающим озабоченности Москвы. По существу американская сторона с ходу отвергла претензии России, которые в случае их конструктивного рассмотрения могли бы содействовать сохранению жизнеспособности этого договора. В документе голословно утверждается, что США в полном объёме выполняют все положения договора, хотя открытые данные управления по ПРО Пентагона говорят об обратном.

Все это ещё раз свидетельствует о том, что Вашингтон действительно намерен выйти из договора уже менее чем через шесть месяцев. Принципиально важно: в названном документе постоянного представительства при НАТО даже нет каких-то минимальных признаков того, что Соединённые Штаты будут продолжать в полном объёме выполнять этот бессрочный договор, который до сих пор не утратил своей актуальности и перспективного значения.

Ну и зачем тогда искать других виноватых в этом?

Вашингтону было бы честнее выйти из договора 1987 года, просто ссылаясь на его статью XV, позволяющую сделать это. Естественно, с принятием полной ответственности за содеянное и за потенциальные негативные последствия такого шага на себя и только на себя.

А тем временем эксперты из США и других государств-членов НАТО активизировали распространение разного рода предложений и рекомендаций, направленных на сохранение ДРСМД в прежнем виде, но за счёт обеспечения явно односторонних преимуществ американской стороне как в плане проведения инспекций российских систем ракетных вооружений, так и в сфере их географического размещения. И с главным прицелом – за счёт уничтожения новых перспективных видов российских вооружений, которые никак не подпадают под ограничительные положения договора 1987 года.

* * *

Наша справка. Подписанный 8 декабря 1987 го¬да в Вашингтоне договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности касался только двух государств – Соединённых Штатов Америки и Союза ССР (в 1992 году его правопреемником стала Российская Федерация).

К июню 1991 года договор был выполнен полностью – обе страны уничтожили все баллистические и крылатые ракеты наземного базирования средней и меньшей дальности.

Сегодня, согласно открытым данным, наземные ракетные системы средней дальности (1000–5500 км) имеются у Китая, Индии, Пакистана, Израиля, КНДР и Ирана, а также у Саудовской Аравии, которая приобрела у Китая несколько пусковых установок с баллистическими ракетами «Дунфэн-3». Китайские, индийские, пакистанские, израильские и северокорейские ракеты могут оснащаться как обычными, так и ядерными боевыми частями. Наземные ракетные системы меньшей дальности (500–1000 км) распространены в мире ещё более широко. Помимо Китая, Индии, Пакистана, Израиля, КНДР и Ирана, такие системы имеют на вооружении Египет, Сирия и Республика Корея. В боевом составе ракетных войск Народно-освободительной армии Китая, согласно имеющимся оценкам, отмечает эксперт Люксембургского форума по предотвращению ядерной катастрофы генерал-полковник в отставке В.И. Есин, находится 250–300 пусковых установок с боезапасом в 1000–1200 ракет меньшей дальности и 100–150 пусковых установок с боезапасом до 330 ракет средней дальности.

Автор: В.П. Козин, Источник: "Красная звезда"

Американцы вспомнили о ДСНВ

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин  в программе «Мардан» на канале Соловьев LIVE.

Темой беседы стали  недостатки новых предложениях США по Договору о сокращении наступательных вооружений.

Эфир от 2 июня 2023г.

 

Апокалипсис сейчас

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе «Открытый эфир», на телеканале «Звезда».

В Германии проходят учения, на которых отрабатываются действия армии во время ядерной войны. К чему готовят европейских солдат? Как Бундесвер собрался использовать американские тактические атомные заряды? Один из лучших экспертов по НАТО Владимир Козин выяснил неизвестные подробности маневров «судного дня»".

Эфир от 21 октября 2019г.

Источник:  Телеканал «Звезда»
 
Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/45295

Армия-2018. Будет ли продолжение холодной войны?

О том, зачем США перевооружаются и что может заставить американцев использовать ядерное оружие в интервью радио Sputnik рассказал Владимир Козин, профессор академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО.

>>Слушать аудио<<

Международный военно-технический форум «Армия-2018» проходил с 21 по 26 августа в парке «Патриот».

 

Байден отправляет войска в Европу

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “Что это значит?” на канале РБК.

CNN сообщает: президент США формально одобрил отправку новых войск США в Европу, переброска пройдет в ближайшие дни. Можно ли это считать своеобразным ответом Москве?

Эфир от 2 февраля 2022г.

>>Ссылка на полную версию передачи на сайте РБК<<

Безумие Лондона: Британия провоцирует ядерный конфликт?

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "Царьград. Главное"

В Британии ответили на обвинения со стороны России по поводу снарядов из обедненного урана, которые Лондон планирует передать боевикам ВСУ. Президент Путин уже заявил, что "Запад начинает применять оружие с ядерным компонентом". Кстати, на Украине под видом биолабораторий создавались военные объекты США и НАТО. Такое заявление сегодня прозвучало в стенах российского парламента. Эти и другие важные темы анализируем в "Царьград.Главное" с Юрием Пронько.

Эфир от 22 марта 2023г.

 

Бесперспективное движение по порочному кругу дезинформации

На чём строится американская пропаганда в сфере контроля над вооружениями?

И американские официальные высокопоставленные сотрудники, и представители американских научно-исследовательских центров вряд ли публично расскажут, на чём строится американская пропаганда в сфере контроля над вооружениями. А можно ли узнать это без их гипотетических разъяснений?

Вполне. Достаточно прочитать несколько последних статей или комментариев, с которыми часто выступает в печати и на слушаниях в Конгрессе старший научный сотрудник Гудзоновского института Соединённых Штатов Тим Моррисон и его коллеги.

Кто есть Who

В своей краткой биографии он позиционирует себя специалистом в области национальной безопасности и контроля над вооружениями, в частности, в вопросах модернизации ракетно-ядерного оружия и противоракетной обороны.

Моррисон окончил Миннесотский университет и Университет имени Джорджа Вашингтона. О том, что его «экспертиза» на названных направлениях является широко востребованной в американском военно-политическом истеблишменте, говорят те факты, что он одновременно является членом группы советников по стратегическим вопросам Стратегического командования США, Обзорных комитетов по вооружениям и комплексной интеграции Ливерморской национальной лаборатории, а также группы внешних советников Сандийской национальной лаборатории, которые давно занимаются разработкой новых видов наступательных вооружений. В бытность деятельности предыдущей республиканской администрации Тим Моррисон был заместителем советника Дональда Трампа по национальной безопасности - координировал государственную политику США с 52 государствами мира и тремя международными организациями. В период с 2011 по 2018 год входил в аппарат Комитета по делам вооружённых сил Палаты представителей в качестве начальника аппарата в Подкомитете по стратегическим ядерным силам. С 2011 года является офицером запаса разведки ВМС США.

Недавно этот специалист опубликовал совместно с конгрессменом-республиканцем Майклом Тернером (штат Огайо), который так же как и названный старший научный сотрудник из Гудзоновского института является сторонником проведения жёсткой политики в отношении Москвы и Пекина, статью «Разоружение на фоне гонки вооружений». Кстати, законодатель М. Тернер активно выступает за укрепление НАТО, где в 2014-2016 годы он занимал должность председателя Парламентской ассамблеи альянса. Такой же линии придерживается и Тим Моррисон.

Тим Моррисон и Майкл Тернер показывают свою полную военно-политическую несостоятельность.

 

А 23 февраля 2021 г. Т. Моррисон выступил в Комитете по вооружённым силам Палаты представителей США с такой речью, что возникает сомнение в его умственных способностях и понимании военно-политического расклада международных сил.

Чтобы представить себе более наглядно, каким образом оба джентльмена пытаются «навести тень на плетень», а именно на Россию и КНР в области ядерных вооружений и контроля над вооружениями в целом, целесообразно использовать без купюр их высказывания и суждения, а также одновременно показать их субстантивную военно-политическую несостоятельность.


Справка

Hudson Institute (Гудзоновский институт) - американский консервативный некоммерческий мозговой центр, базируемый в Вашингтоне, D.C. Был основан в 1961 в Кротон-на-Гудзоне, штат Нью-Йорк, футуристом, военным стратегом и теоретиком систем Германом Каном и его коллегами из RAND Corporation. Гудзоновский институт специализируется на исследованиях в области оборонной политики и на отношениях с СССР (Россией). Большинство его работ в военной области классифицируются как секретные. Институт занимается формированием реакции американцев на политические и социальные события, их образа мышления, принятия решений, за кого голосовать, и вообще их поведения в обществе.

Гудзоновский Институт гордится разнообразием своей деятельности; он помогал NASA в разработке военных космических программ и способствовал широкому распространению новой молодёжной моды и идей, молодёжных бунтов и отчуждения от старшего поколения, что в открытую финансировалось компанией «Кока-Кола».

Гудзоновский институт вполне справедливо можно считать одним из учреждений по промыванию мозгов. Его главным клиентом считается Министерство обороны США, которое получает консультации по проблемам гражданской обороны, национальной безопасности, военной политики и контроля за вооружением.


Hudson Institute (Гудзоновский институт) был основан в 1961 в Кротон-на-Гудзоне,

Нью-Йорк, военным стратегом и теоретиком систем Германом Каном.

 


Цитата

«Для нашей национальной безопасности и существования нашей страны нет ничего более важного, чем угроза, создаваемая иностранными разработками ядерного оружия. Идёт гонка вооружений - сегодня США остаются в стороне».

Тим Моррисон


Т. Моррисон и Ко с глубокой озабоченностью утверждают, что Российская Федерация и КНР модернизируют своё ракетно-ядерное оружие стратегического назначения.

Да, это так. А разве Соединённые Штаты не модернизируют его? Но у наших «экспертов» не так: «США в стороне». Белые и пушистые от мучного покрова. А если сдуть?..

На самом деле - модернизируют, причём с самым широким размахом, который в денежном выражении многократно превосходит все суммарные расходы на ядерные вооружения остальных восьми ядерных государств.

Модернизируют как существующие типы стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений (СНЯВ), так и полностью обновляют классическую стратегическую ядерную триаду, состоящую их межконтинентальных баллистических ракет наземного и морского базирования, а также тяжёлых бомбардировщиков.

Т. Моррисон и Ко с глубокой озабоченностью утверждают, что Российская Федерация

и КНР модернизируют своё ракетно-ядерное оружие стратегического назначения

 


Цитата

«Мы давно знаем, - утверждает горе-аналитик, - что Россия полагается на свои ядерные силы. Россия - государство-неудачник. Падающая сила. Перефразируя бывшего сенатора Джона Маккейна, "Россия - это управляемая мафией заправочная станция с ядерным оружием". Её ядерные силы - всего лишь ещё один пример того, что Путину необходимо дёшево создать актуальность для некогда великой державы, которую он закапывает в землю с неумолимой скоростью».


В этом контексте российская сторона критикуется за то, что она раньше приступила к модернизации своих ядерных потенциалов, чем Вашингтон. С какого времени? В последние годы Москва действительно приступила к этому процессу прежде своих американских визави. Но это объясняется тем, что у СССР/России и США сохраняются разные темпы замены СНЯВ, поскольку не Советский Союз, а американская сторона первой создала ядерное оружие и средства его доставки. Причём Америка первой создала и все три элемента своей стратегической ядерной триады, но в основном занималась не их модернизацией, а продлением их срока службы.

Одновременно Россия представлена в негативном ключе за «наращивание» тактического ядерного оружия (ТЯО). Но как можно утверждать это, если обе стороны не обменивались количественными данными об этих вооружениях? Про то, что Соединённые Штаты первыми развернули своё ядерное оружие этого класса за своими пределами - в Европе и Азии - и до сих пор складируют его там, у наших горе-аналитиков нет ни слова. Абсолютное молчание в Вашингтоне и по поводу того, что к середине 1990-х Москва полностью вывезла всё своё ТЯО с территорий государств-участников Варшавского договора и трёх союзных государств Советского Союза. А Пентагон до сих пор даже и не думает перебазировать на континентальную часть США этот вид вооружений.

Пользуясь случаем, Вашингтон постоянно манипулирует количественными показателями этих видов вооружений, завышая чужие данные и занижая собственные.


Цитата

«Более десяти лет назад Россия начала агрессивно модернизировать свои ядерные силы… Россия создаёт новые и новейшие системы, такие как гиперзвуковые планирующие аппараты, ядерные и ядерные торпеды, крылатые ракеты и другие средства.

Кроме того, согласно данным разведывательного сообщества США, Россия создала огромные возможности для развёртывания запасов неразвёрнутых стратегических ядерных боеголовок в случае, если она захочет это сделать.

Точно так же "Россия обладает до 2.000 таких нестратегических ядерных боеголовок, на которые не распространяется новый Договор о СНВ", и десятки этих [нестратегических] систем доставки уже развёрнуты или находятся в разработке».

Тим Моррисон


Оба автора даже не упоминают, что Пентагон обновляет арсенал подобных видов ядерных вооружений и средств их доставки, которые относятся к средствам передового базирования, за счёт разработки и создания в самое ближайшее время их новых модификаций, например, в виде корректируемой универсальной авиабомбы В 61-12. Универсальной по той причине, что она может доставляться к целям самолётами и тактической, и стратегической авиации.

Тестовый вариант новой ядерной авиабомбы США B 61-12

 

Тим Моррисон и Майкл Тернер открыто выступают за применение американской стороной ядерных боезарядов малой мощности, то есть с мощностью от пяти килотонн и ниже, что всё равно приведёт к эскалации ядерного конфликта. Дело в том, что не мощность ядерных боезарядов, а сам факт применения ядерного оружия одной стороной может вызвать ответную реакцию другой стороны, располагающей ядерным потенциалом.

С российской головы на китайскую


Цитата

«Использование этих "новых военных возможностей" может объяснить, почему Россия (и, по всей видимости, Китайская Народная Республика), согласно оценкам, проводит испытания ядерного оружия малой мощности в нарушение Договора о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний (ДВЗЯИ ) в том виде, в каком он, как понимается и применяется».

 

Тим Моррисон


Пекин обвиняется этими соавторами в том, что он припрятывает точное количество стратегических ядерных боезарядов и их носителей за «Великой стеной секретности». А китайская сторона и не обязана раскрывать размеры и особенности своего ракетно-ядерного арсенала, так как никогда не являлась и до сих пор не является участником переговоров об их ограничении или сокращении.

США также придерживались аналогичной линии секретности до тех пор, пока не приступили сначала вместе с Советским Союзом, а позднее, после его трагического распада, с Россией к ограничению и впоследствии к сокращению только СНВ. Тактические ядерные средства до сих пор остаются «за скобками» переговоров.

Чтобы представить Китай в негативном ключе, Тим Моррисон и Майкл Тернер цитируют командующего Стратегическим командованием США адмирала Чарльза Ричарда, который в феврале этого года утверждал, что в ближайшее десятилетие Пекин может удвоить или даже учетверить свой нынешний ядерный потенциал. Китайская сторона имеет на это полное право из-за растущей американской ядерной мощи и американской стратегии нанесения первого ядерного удара, в том числе и по китайской территории. Тем более, что американская сторона категорически не желает брать на себя обязательство не применять ядерное оружие в первом ударе против КНР, которая ещё в 1964 году взяла на себя в одностороннем порядке такое обещание в отношении всех государств. То есть приняла универсальное обязательство.

США считают, что сталкиваются с угрозами со стороны России и Китая

 

Авторы статьи «Разоружение на фоне гонки вооружений» утверждают, что Соединённые Штаты проводят «чёткую грань между ядерными и неядерными системами вооружений». 


Цитата

«Россия добавляет новые военные возможности к своему существующему арсеналу нестратегического ядерного оружия, в том числе того, которое может быть использовано на кораблях, самолётах и ​​сухопутных войсках. Эти ядерные боеголовки включают системы театрального и тактического действия, на которые Россия полагается для сдерживания и разгрома НАТО или Китая в конфликте, и многие из них используются в системах доставки, которые имеют двойную природу.

Использование этих "новых военных возможностей" может объяснить, почему Россия (и, по всей видимости, Китайская Народная Республика), согласно оценкам, проводит испытания ядерного оружия малой мощности в нарушение Договора о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний (ДВЗЯИ), в том виде, в каком они, как понимаются, применяются; эти тесты Соединённые Штаты провели в 1992 и отреклись от них в 1995 году».

Тим Моррисон


Так ли это? Интересно, где такая грань была ими обозначена, если Вашингтон не предоставляет российским инспекторским группам возможности удостовериться в том, установлены ли на борту американских подводных ракетоносцев стратегического назначения баллистические ракеты в ядерном или в неядерном снаряжении?

Или, скажем, крылатые ракеты, как это представлено на слайде, который изображает компоновку из семи крылатых ракет морского базирования, установленных в одну из шахт четырёх атомных ракетных субмарин США, где прежде размещались баллистические ракеты?

Компоновка из семи крылатых ракет морского базирования

 

Гиперзвук преткновения и страха

В статье Тима Моррисона и Майкла Тернера Российская Федерация подвергнута остракизму за создание новых систем вооружений, в том числе гиперзвуковых, которые не покрываются Договором СНВ-3, да и вообще не упоминаются в нём. Но американская сторона уже давно и самой первой стала заниматься созданием перспективных видов вооружений, в том числе и гиперзвуковых.

Более того, ни при Дональде Трампе, ни при Джозефе Байдене Вашингтон не пытался и до сих пор даже не пытается включить в переговорный процесс собственные, как там называют, «несдерживаемые» в договорном плане новые виды вооружений. Не торопится. Явно ждёт от нас уступок в этом вопросе. По мнению американских оппонентов, именно Москва должна пойти на них. Интересно: с какой стати?


Цитата

«Недавно мы стали свидетелями того, - заявил Тим Моррисон на слушании в Конгрессе США, - как администрация Байдена продлила на пять лет новый договор СНВ. Мы закрепили эти российские преимущества ещё на пять лет. Я считаю, что это была ошибка.

Например, многие идеологи в сообществе разоружения лихорадочно провозглашают необходимость того, чтобы Соединённые Штаты отказались от использования ядерного оружия кроме ответа на ядерную атаку. Эта так называемая доктрина "единственной цели" заставит вас упустить из виду эти программы оружия противника».

Тим Моррисон


Но если наш «эксперт» признаёт, что такие виды вооружений не могут вызвать «фундаментальное изменение» в ядерном балансе сторон, то на чём он инициируют столь шумный «сыр-бор» по поводу российских оружейных новаций?

Полной дезинформацией является утверждение о том, что Россия проводит испытания ядерного оружия, а КНР, «вероятно», готовится к их проведению в нарушение Договора о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний. Так и написано с использованием глагола в настоящем времени: «российская сторона "проводит" испытания ядерного оружия». Но где же доказательства? Где и когда такие испытания были проведены?

Таких фактов просто нет. Их невозможно предъявить. Потому, что на российских ядерных полигонах уже несколько десятилетий стоит полная тишина. Это фиксируют специальные сейсмографы, установленные в других государствах мира. Эксперты явно забыли, что Россия, в отличие от США, ратифицировала этот важный договорный инструмент ещё в 2000 году, а американская сторона до сих пор уклоняется от этого. Более того, нынешний хозяин Белого дома пока не отменил симптоматическое положение ядерной стратегии Дональда Трампа 2018 года, которая предусматривает возобновление испытаний ядерных взрывных устройств на ядерном полигоне в штате Невада.

В представленном изыскании Тим Моррисон и Майкл Тернер настаивают на модернизации существующего американского ядерного потенциала любой ценой, на качественном обновлении всех трёх элементов стратегической ядерной триады, а также на укреплении стратегии ядерного сдерживания Соединённых Штатов, которую в кратком виде можно квалифицировать как «наступательное безусловное ядерное сдерживание». Но если они предписывают проводить такой курс своей стране, то почему они считают, что линии на укрепление ядерного сдерживания не могут придерживаться другие ядерные государства?

ПРО И ТЯО США в Европе при Джозефе Байдене


Цитата

«Нынешний министр обороны Ллойд Остин заявил сенатскому комитету по вооружённым силам: "Я согласен с тем, что ядерное сдерживание является наивысшим приоритетом министерства и что обновление и реорганизация ядерных сил нашей страны является важнейшим приоритетом национальной безопасности".

Четыре министра обороны от обеих политических партий поддержали тот же принцип в пользу программы ядерной модернизации, разработанной президентом Обамой и осуществляемой президентом Трампом. Этот двухпартийный план означает модернизацию дополняющих трёх ножек систем доставки ядерного оружия - тяжёлых бомбардировщиков, способных нести гравитационные бомбы и крылатые ракеты воздушного базирования, и самолётов двойного назначения; подводные лодки с баллистическими ракетами, способными нести боеголовки малой и большей мощности; и межконтинентальные баллистические ракеты наземного базирования».

Тим Моррисон


Так на чём же строится реальная американская пропаганда в сфере контроля над вооружениями?

Этот вопрос стоит в заголовке. Ответ: зачастую на лжи и искажении действительности. В других государствах Вашингтон видит иголку в стогу, а у себя не замечает и бревна в глазу. Это отчётливо просматривается в недавно написанной статье Тима Моррисона и Майкла Тернера, в выступлении Моррисона в Конгрессе, а также в прочих их псевдоинформационных материалах на эту важную тему. Заметна и другая особенность: эксперты американских научно-исследовательских центров берут ложную информацию из выступлений высокопоставленных представителей Пентагона и Государственного департамента, а затем повторяют её на слушаниях в Конгрессе, обеспечивая тем самым бесперспективное движение по порочному кругу дезинформации

Автор: В.П. Козин. Источник: Еженедельник "Звезда"

Ближний Восток: США ищут предлог для новой войны

Вашингтон намерен сколотить военную коалицию против Ирана

США давно разжигают пламя нестабильности в районе Ближнего и Среднего Востока. В списке их вооруженных вторжений значатся Афганистан, Ирак, Йемен, Сирия, а теперь может настать очередь Иран.

Вашингтон всегда находит поводы для подобных силовых акций. В данном случае – удар по двум саудовским нефтеперегонным заводам «Сауди Арамко» 14 сентября.

Командующий Центральным командованием вооруженных сил США, в зону ответственности которого входят Ближний и Средний Восток, поспешил запросить у Пентагона оправку в этот и без того «невралгический» регион дополнительных контингентов американских вооруженных сил,  включая ВВС и ВМС, а также наиболее эффективную мобильную систему ПРО THAAD – систему перехвата ракет на большой высоте на заключительной фазе их полета. Собственные средства противоракетной обороны США в виде ЗРК «SМ-3», а также ЗРК «Patriot», поставленные ими некоторым региональным союзникам Вашингтона, уже имеют в этом регионе основательный потенциал, хотя, как показала практика, отнюдь не эффективный.

Военную помощь у США также запросили Саудовская Аравия и ОАЭ.

Американский министр обороны Марк Эспер на брифинге 20 сентября 2019 года признал, что Пентагон располагает «внушительным военным присутствием в регионе» и что у него есть «много военных вариантов» для реагирования «в случае необходимости». Президент Дональд Трамп публично признал, что американское военно-политическое руководство рассматривает до 15 крупных объектов на иранской территории в качестве объектов потенциального удара.

В Аравийском море уже находится 12-ая авианосная ударная группа ВМС США во главе с авианосцем «Авраам Линкольн» и кораблями сопровождения в составе крейсера и нескольких эсминцев с управляемым ракетным оружием. Помимо этого, США заявили об отправке в регион новых контингентов вооруженных сил, численность которых, по заявлению председателя Объединенного комитета начальников штабов генерала Джозефа Дэнфорда, пока не определена.

В свете событий «14 сентября» Вашингтон намерен параллельно создать военную коалицию союзных и дружественных государств для «контролирования ситуации» на Ближнем и Среднем Востоке. То есть, примерно такую же, которая ранее была сколочена им против Афганистана, Ирака и Сирии. Но пока дела в этом направлении идут с большим скрипом: по состоянию на 25 сентября в такую группировку вошли только пять государств: Австралия, Бахрейн, ОАЭ, Саудовская Аравия и США.

Одновременно американское военно-политическое руководство приступило к созданию мощной информационной «прокладки» для обеспечения материальной основы для своего силового вмешательства во внутренние дела Ирана. Подобная цель, например, вытекает из Стратегии национальной безопасности США 2017 года, которая ставит стратегическую задачу – не допустить доминирования в районе Ближнего Востока любого государства, враждебно относящегося к Соединенным Штатам.

Вашингтон также начал широкую пропагандистскую кампанию, направленную на расширение инспекционной деятельности МАГАТЭ на иранской территории, стремясь не допустить реализации планов Тегерана, направленных на повышение уровня обогащения урана выше пределов, установленных Венским соглашением 2015 года, которое в официальном звучании известно как «Совместный всеобъемлющий план действий». Такое соглашение, ставшее возможным благодаря готовности Ирана пойти на глубокие компромиссы, реально положило бы конец дальнейшему развитию военной части его ядерной программы. Но к 2018 году Дональд Трамп в одностороннем порядке вышел из «иранской ядерной сделки», что по сути дела привело ее к фактическому развалу.

На этом фоне выглядит несостоятельным предвыборное обещание нынешнего американского президента-республиканца сконцентрироваться в большей степени на решении внутренних проблем США и прекратить вмешиваться во внутренние дела других государств мира.

«Назначение» Ирана Соединенными Штатами и Саудовской Аравией виновным в нападении на саудовские НПЗ до того как завершено официальное расследование этого инцидента, говорит о том, что это обстоятельство используется Белым домом и союзниками США в качестве предлога с целью свержения иранского руководства. Да и исход такого расследования угадать несложно, коль скоро в нем задействованы военные эксперты Центрального командования вооруженных сил США. Такая линия тем более представляется странной, если учесть, что, йеменские хуситы, наиболее сильно пострадавшие от воздушных бомбардировок саудовских ВВС, взяли на себя всю ответственность за удар по двум НПЗ «Сауди Арамко» в качестве меры возмездия за налеты саудовской боевой авиации на многочисленные гражданские объекты на территории Йемена. С другой же стороны, Иран отверг свою причастность к использованию ударных систем вооружений в акции «14 сентября».

Тем временем военно-политическое руководство Ирана предупредило потенциальных агрессоров, что начнет против них «тотальную войну», если они отважатся нанести хотя бы какой-то силовой удар по иранской территории. С учетом фактического развала «иранской ядерной сделки» по инициативе Соединенных Штатов и усиления ими необоснованного санкционного давления на Иран, Тегеран заявил о полном сохранении своей национальной программы развития баллистических ракет. О том, что он постепенно добивается на этом направлении заметных результатов, говорит тот факт, что на военном параде, состоявшемся в иранской столице 22 сентября этого года, была показана баллистическая ракета «Хорремшахр» средней дальности с дальностью полета свыше 2 тысяч км.

Государства-союзники Вашингтона по НАТО, а также расположенные в зоне Персидского залива выражают серьезные опасения в связи с возможным началом боевых действий сколачиваемой западной коалиции против Ирана, опасаясь, что это затронет интересы их безопасности и торгово-экономические интересы в регионе, в частности морские перевозки нефти и различных товаров, где расположены три ключевые проливные зоны глобального значения, а именно Суэцкий канал, Баб-эль-Мандебский и Ормузский проливы.

Нетрудно предположить, что любые широкие или даже ограниченные военные действия США и их союзников в районе Ближнего и Среднего Востока приведут к весьма острому и кровопролитному вооруженному конфликту, который затронет интересы значительного количества государств мира.

Автор: В.П. Козин, Источник: InfoRos

Большой афганский исход

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “Известия. Главное” на Пятом телеканале.

Кто и куда бежит из Кабула? Где на планете уже зреют новые эпицентры напряжения?

В.П. Козин: «Новые власти Афганистана должны провозгласить политику неприсоединения, которую он проводил со времени создания Движения неприсоединения. То есть политику неучастия в военных союзах, отказа от размещения иностранных вооруженных сил на своей территории, а также неучастия в военных операциях за рубежом».

Эфир от 28 августа 2021 г.

Источник: Пятый телеканал

Будет новая, реально свободная Украина

Специальная военная операция России, направленная на защиту ДНР и ЛНР,  а также освобождение Украины от агрессивного милитаризма и оголтелого национализма и геноцида, судя по всему, движется к определенному итогу.

Находящаяся в агонии нынешняя киевская администрация во главе с профаном-клоуном по фамилии «Зеленский» пытается с помощью телеканалов натовских стран-подстрекателей третьей по счету варварской агрессии против мирных граждан Донбасса и жителей остальной части Украины привлечь внимание к колоннам военной техники российских Вооруженных Сил, подошедшие к Киеву с севера. У кривды никогда не будет шансов оболгать другого. Российский спецназ постепенно устанавливает контроль над предместьями украинской столицы.

Пока сложно сказать, как именно будет решен вопрос со сменой власти на Украине в интересах ее денацификации и демилитаризации. Но очевидно, что в ближайшее время он будет решен, а ДНР и ЛНР утвердятся в своих государственных границах. Однозначно окончательно и бесповоротно будет решен  вопрос и о неприсоединении Украины к военным блокам и о ее провозглашении безъядерным государством.

Но может ли это означать, что российские войска развернутся и уйдут обратно на территорию Российской Федерации?

Режим в Киеве продолжает демонстрировать свой преступный характер. В угоду Западу он спровоцировал саму операцию, отказавшись реализовать Минские соглашения. Теперь же в армию отправлены лица, имеющие опыт военной службы, но отбывавшие срок за уголовные преступления, в том числе насильственные. Лидеры нацистов назначаются главами областных и городских администраций в русскоязычных регионах. Начались убийства лиц, заподозренных в антифашистских настроениях. Украинские СМИ разжигают массовый психоз. Власть санкционировала свободную раздачу оружия гражданским лицам даже уголовникам, досрочно выпущенным из тюрем, и призывает их нападать на российские военные колонны с «коктейлями Молотова».  Занятие бесполезное, но крайне опасное.

Боевики националистических формирований переодеваются в гражданскую одежду и используют гражданский автотранспорт для нападений на российских солдат. Они заходят в жилые дома, устанавливают артиллерию во дворах многоэтажек и стреляют оттуда, пытаясь провоцировать ответный огонь по мирным жителям. Националисты берут в заложники глав местных администраций, как например мэра Харькова, и стремятся как можно дольше удерживать крупные населенные пункты, с тем чтобы подвергнуть их максимальному разрушению в ходе боевых действий. Так как нацбаты подчиняются не Зеленскому, а спецслужбам США и Великобритании, то вся их деятельность направлена на затягивание кровопролития, разжигание вражды между русскими и украинцами и создание России проблем на Украине на как можно более долгий срок. В этом их можно сравнить с «Джебхат Ан-Нусрой» и другими террористическими структурами, которые действовала в Сирии.

Командование ВСУ либо действует с националистами заодно, либо не противодействует им. Военные вместе с националистами проводят репрессии против населения и используют его в качестве «живого щита», превращаясь в пособников террористов. А те украинские офицеры и солдаты, которые пытаются образумить эти «айдары», «правые секторы», «азовы» и другие им подобные ультранационалистические отряды, уничтожаются на месте как «предатели».

НАТО практически уже давно участвует в украинской агрессии. Североатлантический союз начал обхаживать Украину вскоре после распада СССР, стремясь сделать ее главным военно-политическим плацдармом против России. С 2014 года 17 стран альянса поставляют смертоносное оружие и боеприпасы преступному киевскому режиму. Ему шлют смертоносные виды вооружений, на украинскую землю едут наемники и террористы, которых украинский народ не звал. Силы психологический операций и кибервойска североатлантического альянса открыто действуют на стороне новоявленных украинских нацистов.

Совершенно ясно, что любая украинская территория, оставленная без защиты российской армии, будет в скором времени оккупирована силами НАТО. Стали известны факты поставок Киеву американцами плутония для создания ядерного оружия, а также кооперации Турции и Саудовской Аравии с ним в производстве ракет повышенной дальности, а также продажи ВСУ турецких дронов типа «Байрактар». Проявилась варварская готовность Киева заразить Европу «радиоактивным ковидом» путем нападения на украинские АЭС с целью разрушения ее реакторов.

Стоит напомнить, что Владимир Путин дважды обращался к украинским военнослужащим. В частности, он предлагал им отстранить от власти наркоманов и нацистов. По сути, это было предложение обеспечить нейтральный статус Украины в интересах ее собственного населения. Однако ВСУ этим предложением пока воспользовались в ограниченных масштабах. У них началась бы новая жизнь. Уровень их смычки с нацистскими группировками и подконтрольность командного состава западным спецслужбам говорит о том, что освобождение Киева от дискредитировавшего себя режима будет лишь определенным этапом российской специальной военной операции.

После обретения Украиной независимости в тогда еще существовавшем Верховном Совете встал бывший диссидент Иван Драч и призвал провозгласить Украину нейтральной страной, вывезти с ее территории ядерное оружие и получить плюшки и от России (права на недвижимость и технологии), и от Запада. В 1994 году был подписан Будапештский меморандум, а нейтральный статус и стремление в «евроатлантические структуры» (читай: в Евросоюз и НАТО) закрепил пагубный и крайне невыгодны отход Украины от России. А недавно кто-то из «великих стратегов» типа Драча возможно подсунул Зеленскому тезис о возможности возврата Украины к ядерному статусу. И тем самым помог дискредитировать Будапештский меморандум, а Украине – начать в конечном итоге возвращение в российскую орбиту. Так что сторонников Бандеры слили. Другой британский клоун Борис Джонсон просто исполняет свой любимый цирковой номер.

Есть, однако, и другая сторона вопроса.

Неонацисты на Украине уже давно завязаны на зарубежные спецслужбы, причем после Второй мировой войны в первую очередь на американские и британские. Они неподконтрольны главному киевскому наркоману, а командование ВСУ сторонится и их, забыв о совести и последствиях. Либо выступают на их стороне. Махровые националисты же как "Джебхат Ан-Нусра" и ее аналоги отстраняют чиновников от власти и отрабатывают задачу спровоцировать максимальное кровопролитие и разрушение гражданской инфраструктуры на украинской земле, посеять рознь между русскими и украинцами и заставить Россию "увязнуть" в Украине. Гражданские власти на местах фактически взяты в заложники. Фотографию растерзанного мэра Кременной Струка в социальных сетях, советника министра внутренних дел Украины Антона Геращенко видели многие. И те, кто посмотрел "Вашингтон пост". Срыв согласованной официальным Киевом операции по гуманитарным коридорам, убийство Дениса Киреева – все это демонстрирует неподконтрольность спецслужб и военнослужащих правительству штабу Зеленского.

Интересно: где застряла готовность Киева открыть такие коридоры – в портфеле главы украинской делегации, участвующего в официальных переговорах с российской делегацией в бейсбольной кепке и в свитере? Где была записана обязанность Киева известить жителей в Волновахе и Мариуполе о таких спасительных путях исхода в безопасные районы из этих городов, заблокированных современными нацистами? Почему мировое сообщество не обратило никакого внимания на такую гуманитарную трагедию? Почему молчит генеральный секретарь ООН, руководство ОБСЕ и руководитель структуры этой организации – Бюро по демократическим институтам и правам человека, а также Международный комитет Красного креста и другие правительственные и общественные, некоммерческие организации?

Неонацисты отказались гарантировать безопасность гуманитарных коридоров 5 и 6 марта. Вот их подлинное обличье.

Считаю возможным и правильным изложить свою позицию по этой теме и другим вопросам  всеми другими государствами, входящими в ОДКБ.

Очевидно, что на Украине должна сформироваться принципиально новая власть, которая гарантирует соблюдение реальных национальных интересов Украины и ее народа, а не олигархов и коллективного Запада, желающих ей тяжелой судьбы. Но сама по себе эта власть после длившихся годами репрессий и чисток вряд ли окрепнет и твердо встанет на ноги. 

Украина может возродиться из пепла собственной, третьей по счету вооруженной агрессии, инициативно развязанной против собственного народа. Так считают ее здоровые силы. Они не канули в Лету. Так считают подлинные друзья Украины, а не ее кукловоды из США и НАТО.

И нужна ей будет не только помощь, но и адекватная защита.

Автор: Владимир Козин – гражданин России

 

В Вашингтоне продолжают демонизировать Россию и её Вооружённые Силы

Реальная угроза дальнейшего возрастания военной напряжённости в Европе исходит от США и их союзников по НАТО.

Согласно действующей национальной ядерной стратегии военно-политическое руководство США оставляют за собой право применять ядерное оружие в любое время и в любой точке земного шара «для защиты жизненно важных интересов Соединённых Штатов, их союзников и партнёров» как в первом, так и в ответном ракетно-ядерном ударе. И такую линию вооружённые силы страны будут проводить, как это записано в документе, по меньшей мере «в течение всего XXI века».

Напомнить об этом считаю не лишним, принимая во внимание нынешние попытки администрации США возложить на Россию вину за подрыв стратегической стабильности, подводящий человечество всё ближе к крайне опасной черте. Не должны вводить в заблуждения и некоторые решения Пентагона, призванные продемонстрировать миру «миролюбие» Вашингтона и его стремление не играть на обострение.

Имею в виду то, что на днях Соединённые Штаты отложили очередной испытательный пуск межконтинентальной баллистической ракеты «Минитмен-3». Сообщая об этом, пресс-секретарь Пентагона Джон Кирби подчеркнул, что данное решение продиктовано нежеланием нынешней администрации США способствовать эскалации международной обстановки.

Между тем в рамках национальной ядерной стратегии по-прежнему идёт совершенствование ракетно-ядерного потенциала США (подтверждение тому и намётки военного бюджета на 2023 финансовый год) и его размещение не только на территории Североамериканского континента, но и в различных регионах планеты, в том числе – что особенно опасно – в Европе. При этом правительства стран, на территории которых хранится американское ядерное оружие ещё с 1950-х годов, и даже штаб-квартира Североатлантического альянса не имеют права не только вмешиваться в процесс принятия решения о его применении, но и контролировать, в каком состоянии оно находится. Все эти вопросы Вашингтон решает единолично.

В Европе, а точнее на территории Бельгии, Германии, Италии и Нидерландов, а также в азиатской части Турции находятся от 150 до 200 тактических ядерных бомб B61-3-4. Одна такая бомба убивает всё живое в радиусе 30 километров. Применение этих боеприпасов, а по сути реализацию сценария ведения ядерной войны в Европе, американские военные США отрабатывают вместе со своими союзниками по НАТО на специальных ежегодных учениях. Так, в октябре прошлого года на юге Европы прошло учение Steadfast Noon («Стойкий полдень») с привлечением десятков боевых самолётов 14 стран-членов альянса. В ходе учения проводилась транспортировка ядерных боеприпасов с мест хранения и установка их на самолёты, а сами полёты совершались с макетами бомб семейства B61.

В настоящее время идёт подготовка к замене этих бомб на качественно новый вариант – корректируемую B61−12 высокой точности наведения с мощностью 0,3, 1,5, 10 или 50 килотонн. Размещение их планируется начать уже в мае этого года. Новое хвостовое оперение делает бомбу управляемой и более точной. Это позволяет не спускать её на парашюте, как прежние образцы, а сбрасывать с большой высоты, после чего бомба автономно планирует к цели.

Под новую авиабомбу В61-12 в США создан и уже используется самолёт пятого поколения F-35А, способный нести две такие авиабомбы. Его закупают европейские и азиатские союзники Штатов. Под доставку новых бомб создаётся и стратегический бомбардировщик B-21, поступление которого в ВВС США намечено на 2026 год.

При этом нельзя сбрасывать со счётов ещё одного существенного американского «ядерного довеска» в Европе. Это ядерное оружие в виде авиабомб и крылатых ракет с ядерными боезарядами, которое несут на борту американские стратегические бомбардировщики, получившие «постоянную прописку» в небе Европы. Разве это не свидетельство приготовлений к ядерной конфронтации?

Известно, что в 2019 году стратегический бомбардировщик США B-52 нанёс условный ядерный удар по литовскому полигону, расположенному недалеко от Калининградской области. В сентябре 2020 года бомбардировщики B-52 в небе над Балтикой отрабатывали нанесение ядерных ударов с помощью крылатых ракет. Кроме того, такие бомбардировщики, как полагают эксперты, совершали имитацию атак на российский Крым и Донбасс, барражируя в небе Украины в районе Азовского моря и Мариуполя.

Следует принять во внимание и продолжающуюся операцию ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» в пространстве государств Прибалтики, а также аналогичную операцию, проводимую с территории Румынии. В ходе этого патрулирования задействованы самолёты двойного назначения НАТО, способные нести не только обычные, но и ядерные авиабомбы.

Уместно также учесть, что в НАТО до недавнего времени в стадии обсуждения находился вопрос о размещении на территории Украины нескольких бригад альянса. Это вполне отвечало стремлениям политической верхушки страны, где реальная власть с февраля 2014 года принадлежит ультранационалистам, мечтающим завладеть ядерным оружием. Нельзя исключать и того, что, декларативно сохраняя безъядерный статус, Киев вполне мог бы договориться с Североатлантическим альянсом о размещении на своей территории всё тех же натовских самолётов двойного назначения, то есть боевых машин с ядерным оружием на борту.

Очевидно, что это создавало бы реальную угрозу, в том числе и ядерную, нашей стране. Исходя из неё, Россия потребовала от США и НАТО долгосрочные и юридически обязывающие гарантии своей безопасности. Москва, как известно, передала Вашингтону проекты договора о гарантиях безопасности с американской стороной и соглашения о мерах обеспечения безопасности России и стран НАТО.

Во вводной части проекта договора наша страна предложила закрепить принцип невозможности развязывания ядерной войны, а среди конкретных мер – исключить развёртывание американского ядерного оружия вне национальной территории. Но Вашингтон ответил на это предложение неприемлемыми для России отписками или просто проигнорировал их, что свидетельствовало о его намерении продолжать следовать курсом, направленным на повышение уровня противостояния с нашей страной. Одновременно началась ускоренная накачка Украины современными типами ракетного оружия: противотанкового, зенитного…

В этих условиях Россия была вынуждена начать специальную военную операцию на Донбассе, целью которой объявлены демилитаризация и денационализация Украины, а также приняла ряд мер военно-технического характера.

Однако в Вашингтоне продолжают демонизировать Россию и её Вооружённые Силы. В частности, отказ от проведения пуска межконтинентальной баллистической ракеты, о которой шла речь выше, американские официальные представители сопроводили словами о том, что Соединённые Штаты тем самым добросовестно проводят ядерную политику, в то время как распоряжение России о переводе сил сдерживания в особый режим несения боевого дежурства является, мол, «опасным и безответственным».

Эти заявления являются ничем иным как сознательной дезинформацией, направленной на то, чтобы ввести мировое сообщество в заблуждение и успокоить его относительно истинных американских намерений.

При оценке степени вероятности развязывания ядерного конфликта со стороны США и НАТО, где представлены ядерные союзники Вашингтона – Великобритания и Франция, приходится учитывать и такой фактор. С момента начала российской специальной военной операции по защите Донбасса количество натовских самолётов двойного назначения, переброшенных к российским границам, резко увеличилось. По открытым данным, обнародованным в западных СМИ и на военных сайтах США, их число в короткие сроки возросло в пять раз. Причём, отчасти за счёт дополнительной переброски из ряда стран-членов НАТО американских многоцелевых истребителей F-35А.

Особую опасность для мира представляют, кроме того, такие провокации, как та, что в ночь на 4 марта устроила украинская сторона на Запорожской АЭС. Её цель заключалась в том, чтобы показать, что именно российские войска «танками» атаковали Запорожскую АЭС, в результате чего в здании учебного центра возникли пожар и опасность «радиоактивного заражения Европы». Умелыми действиями российские военнослужащие пресекли атаку диверсионной группы. Тем не менее, эта примитивная провокация, снятая на видео, была использована киевским режимом для дальнейшего раздувания антироссийской истерии в подконтрольных Западу СМИ.

Американские телеканалы утром 4 марта встретили своих зрителей устрашающими заголовками: «Атомная электростанция под атакой», «Взрыв будет в десять раз хуже Чернобыля». Более того, по инициативе США состоялось заседание Совбеза ООН, на котором американский посол при ООН Линда Томас-Гринфилд обвинила российских военных в совершении «невероятно безрассудной и опасной» атаки. В этом же ключе выступил и совет управляющих МАГАТЭ, несмотря на то, что директор этого международного органа признал, что радиоактивный фон на Запорожской АЭС находится в норме.

Нет необходимости особо подчёркивать, что в условиях многовекторной военной угрозы, в том числе ракетно-ядерной, которую создают действия Соединённых Штатов, наша страна имеет законное право принимать все необходимые меры для обеспечения своей национальной безопасности и стратегической стабильности в мире.

Автор: Владимир Козин, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России. Источник: “Красная звезда”

В МО РФ считают, что иностранные наемники отказываются ехать на Украину

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в эфире телеканала “Москва 24”

Иностранные наемники отказываются ехать на Украину. По данным Минобороны РФ, желающих участвовать в спецоперации на стороне Киева становится все меньше.

В плен российским войскам сдались американские наемники Александр Дрюк и Энди Хюйн. Они рассказали, что поехать на Украину их заставили выпуски новостей и пропаганда.

Источник: Москва 24.

 

В Минобороны Украины рассказали о приказе Зеленского отвоевать юг страны

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в эфире телеканала Москва 24

Президент Украины Владимир Зеленский поручил ВСУ отвоевать южную часть страны. Армия республики обладает примерно миллионом бойцов для решения данной задачи. Об этом заявил министр обороны страны Алексей Резников.

Резников заявил, что это является крайне необходимым для Украины с политической точки зрения.

 

В Пекине издали монографию В.П. Козина о развитии системы ПРО США и позиции России

Пекинское издательство «Haichao Press» выпустило на китайском языке актуализированный вариант монографии ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ МГИМО, профессора Академии военных наук России В.П. Козина «Эволюция противоракетной обороны США и позиция России», ранее изданную в Москве на русском и английском языках под аналогичным названием.

В китайском издании объемом 477 страниц анализируются этапы и особенности развертывания американской глобальной системы ПРО, подробно излагается позиция России по этому поводу, а также содержатся практические рекомендации по возможному урегулированию данной проблемы. Издательство «Haichao Press» перевело не только основное содержание книги, но и ее приложение, библиографический раздел, а также многочисленные слайды, иллюстрирующие развитие системы ПРО США и ее ударно-боевых компонентов.

Выход в свет названной монографии в КНР свидетельствует о большом интересе, который китайская сторона проявляет к особенностям наращивания американских средств ПРО, находящихся вне переговорного процесса контроля над вооружениями.

Экземпляр монографии на китайском языке имеется в библиотеке Института.

В Редзиково продолжают «строить»

Размещение американских противоракетных комплексов в Старом Свете расшатывает здание европейской безопасности.

Официальные представители Пентагона объявили на днях о переносе сроков ввода в эксплуатацию второй по счёту операционной базы ПРО США в Европе. Речь идёт о строящемся уже несколько лет американском противоракетном комплексе близ населённого пункта Редзиково, расположенного неподалёку от города Слупск на севере Польши. Закладной камень в фундамент этого объекта был установлен ещё в мае 2016 года.

Это уже второй перенос срока ввода в строй редзиковского комплекса ПРО США, который Пентагон первоначально планировал поставить на боевое дежурство ещё в декабре 2018 года, а затем сдвинул свои обязательства на конец текущего года. И вот теперь новая отсрочка: на сей раз на 2022 финансовый год.

Именно о таком графике поведала американскому информагентству Блумберг представитель управления по противоракетной обороне (УПРО) Пентагона Хизэр Кавалье. Причиной объявления нового срока сдачи в эксплуатацию базы ПРО под Редзиково стали организационно-финансовые проблемы, связанные с её строительством, которые возникли у компании-подрядчика «Джон Вуд Груп». Министерству обороны США пришлось запрашивать ещё 96 млн долларов для завершения проекта – дополнительно к 746 млн долларов, которые были израсходованы ранее.

В начале февраля новый начальник УПРО вице-адмирал Джон Хилл заявил, что польский проект ПРО уже готов приблизительно на 92 процента, но возникли некие проблемы с отдельными компонентами, от которых зависит его деятельность. При этом он назвал проблемные зоны: системы энергообеспечения, охлаждения и некоторые другие виды вспомогательного оборудования.

Переданная представителями Пентагона информация на эту противоракетную тему, очевидно, имеет два последствия.

Ни в Варшаве, ни в Бухаресте не хотят признавать того, что делают свои страны заложниками американской политики

Нет сомнения, что отсрочка реализации «редзиковского проекта» позитивно скажется на европейской безопасности. Но, с другой стороны, тот факт, что польский вариант и его румынский «противоракетный близнец» не ликвидируются совсем, несёт в себе отрицательный заряд.

Напомню, что первая американская база ПРО в Европе была введена в действие в 2015 году на базе ВВС Девеселу в Румынии. И действующий румынский вариант системы ПРО, и строящийся польский объект представляют собой сооружение с универсальными пусковыми установками Mk-41 (24 ячейки в каждом случае). Используемая боевая информационно-управляющая система «Иджис» также устанавливается на борту боевых кораблей с управляемым ракетным оружием ВМС США: на крейсерах типа «Тикондерога» и эсминцах типа «Эрли Бёрк». Её наземный вариант получил название «Иджис эшор» (Aegis Ashore), то есть система ПРО «Иджис» наземного базирования.

Объективная опасность, исходящая от этих двух объектов, заключается в том, что в их пусковые установки можно устанавливать не только оборонительные системы вооружений в виде американских ракет-перехватчиков (SM-3 Block IB), используемых для перехвата баллистических и крылатых ракет. В такие установки можно без труда загружать и наступательные виды вооружений в виде крылатых ракет типа «Томагавк». Появилась информация и о возможности загрузки в них высокоточных гиперзвуковых видов вооружений, в спешном порядке разрабатываемых в Соединённых Штатах.

Подобную ракетную рокировку можно произвести безо всяких инженерно-технических переделок пусковой установки Mk-41. Не потребуется и замена программного обеспечения, как пытаются дезинформировать мировую общественность американцы. Дело в том, что компьютерные программы для запуска как оборонительных, так и наступательных видов вооружений подобных объектов составляются заранее и заблаговременно вводятся в блоки управления ударно-боевыми средствами под каждый тип загружаемых ракетных вооружений.

В данном контексте следует учесть существенное обстоятельство. Европейские базы ПРО находятся и всегда будут находиться под полным американским военным контролем, от которого военно-политическое руководство Румынии и Польши в соответствии с подписанными с ними соглашениями полностью отстранено.

Но ни в Варшаве, ни в Бухаресте не хотят признавать того, что делают свои страны заложниками американской политики. Для той же Польши размещение ракет – не только ещё один недружественный жест в сторону России, но и свидетельство углубления «особых» отношений с Соединёнными Штатами.

Автор: В.П. Козин, Источник: “Красная звезда”

 

В России утверждены новые Основы государственной политики в области ядерного сдерживания

Ее ядерная стратегия будет по-прежнему иметь оборонительный характер

2 июня Президент России Владимир Путин подписал Указ № 355 «Об Основах государственной политики Российской Федерации в области ядерного сдерживания». Принятый документ, имеющий статус военно-стратегической установки национального значения, определяет военные опасности и угрозы, для нейтрализации которых осуществляется ядерное сдерживание, его ключевые принципы, а также условия применения ядерного оружия.

Документ заменил нормативный акт аналогичного содержания, принятый десять лет назад и действовавший вплоть до текущего года, но в основном сохранил главное содержание российской ядерной доктрины.

Она по-прежнему носит оборонительный характер и в лапидарном виде может быть охарактеризована как имеющая в основе принцип «условного оборонительного ядерного сдерживания». Это означает, что российское ядерное оружие может быть применено только в ответном ударе по потенциальному противнику, если он применит против  России и (или) ее союзников ядерное оружие и другие виды оружия массового поражения (ОМП), а также в случае совершения агрессии против нее с применением обычного оружия, «когда под угрозу поставлено само существование государства».

Таким образом, новые Основы сохранили двухзвенную формулировку о применении ядерного оружия, которая была отражена в аналогичном документе, утвержденном тогдашним президентом Дмитрием Медведевым в 2010 году, а также в «ядерном разделе» действующей Военной доктрины страны, одобренной в декабре 2014 года президентом Владимиром Путиным. Как видно, Российская Федерация оставила за собой право применить ядерное оружие исключительно в качестве крайнего и вынужденного средства и только в ответ на определенные враждебные действия потенциального противника.

В отличие от актуализированной российской ядерной стратегии ядерная военно-стратегическая установка США, одобренная в феврале 2018 года, предусматривает применение ядерного оружия в 14 случаях, восемь из которых сформулированы нарочито туманно для того, чтобы расширить спектр оснований для применения ракетно-ядерных средств в первом превентивном и упреждающем ударе. Это позволяет квалифицировать нынешнюю американскую ядерную стратегию, как имеющую в своей основе принцип «безусловного наступательного ядерного сдерживания». По этому показателю президент Дональд Трамп может попасть в книгу рекордов Гиннеса.

В новых российских Основах нет положений «эскалация с целью деэскалации» или об использовании ядерных боезарядов малой мощности, отсутствует возможность размещения ядерного оружия на территории неядерных государств, в то время как такие постулаты содержатся в ныне действующей ядерной стратегии США.

Повторено положение ядерного раздела Военной доктрины Российской Федерации 2014 года о том, что решение о применении ядерного оружия принимается президентом страны, но с уточнением: при наличии условий, которые определяют возможность его применения. Президент России может при необходимости проинформировать военно-политическое руководство других государств и международные организации о готовности российской стороны применить ядерное оружие или о принятом решении о его применении, а также о факте его применения.

В Основах 2020 года названы четыре условия применения ядерного оружия: в случае поступления достоверной информации о старте баллистических ракет, атакующих территории России и ее союзников; применение противником ядерного оружия или других видов ОМП по территориям России и ее союзников, воздействие противника на критически важные государственные или военные объекты страны, вывод из строя которых приведет к срыву ответных действий ее ядерных сил, а также, если против нее будет предпринята агрессия с применением обычного оружия, когда под угрозу поставлено само существование государства.

В документе обращено внимание на то, что сдерживание должно быть гарантированным и непрерывным по продолжительности его применения в мирное и военное время, а также предусматривать неотвратимость возмездия и нанесение потенциальному противнику неприемлемого ущерба при любых условиях складывающейся обстановки с помощью сил ядерного сдерживания, состоящих из ядерных сил наземного, морского и воздушного базирования.

Сдерживание осуществляется российской стороной не только в отношении каких-то отдельных государств-потенциальных противников России, но и применительно к военным коалициям (блокам и союзам), которые располагают ядерным оружием и (или) другими видами ОМП или обладают значительным боевым потенциалом сил общего назначения, и рассматривают ее в качестве потенциального противника.

Обозначены шесть видов военных опасностей для Российской Федерации, которые могут потребовать использование ядерного оружия: наращивание потенциальным противником на сопредельных с Россией территориях и в морских акваториях группировок сил общего назначения, в составе которых находятся средства доставки ядерного оружия; развертывание баллистических и крылатых ракет средней и меньшей дальности, противоракетных систем и средств, высокоточного неядерного и гиперзвукового оружия, ударных БЛА и оружия направленной энергии;  создание и размещение в космосе средств ПРО и  ударных систем; наличие у других государств ядерного и (или) других видов ОМП и средств их доставки, которые могут быть применены против России и (или) ее союзников; неконтролируемое распространение ядерного оружия, средств его доставки, технологий и оборудования для его изготовления; размещение на территориях неядерных государств ядерного оружия и средств его доставки.

Названные военные опасности отражают дальнейшее развитие различных видов вооружений зарубежными государствами и выдвижение их вооружений «на передовые рубежи» относительно России. В этой связи справедливо обращено внимание на адаптивность сдерживания к военным угрозам извне.

Принципиально важным является то, что документ от 2 июня не содержит положений, которые закрепляли бы стремление России к ядерному превосходству.

Наоборот, он включает формулировку о необходимости уменьшения ядерной угрозы и недопущения обострения межгосударственных отношений, способного спровоцировать военные конфликты, в том числе с применением ядерного оружия. Заявлено о соблюдении международных обязательств в области контроля над вооружениями – в отличие от Соединенных Штатов, которые только на словах заявили о своей приверженности им, а на деле открыто демонстрируют негативное отношение к 13 международным актам в такой области, в том числе к семи из них, имеющих отношение к ядерному оружию.

Максимальный срок действия обновленных Основ не оговорен. Таким образом сдержанность в потенциальном применении ядерного оружия Россией сохраняется на неопределенное время.

Автор: Владимир Козин, член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН. Источник: InfoRos

В ЦВПИ МГИМО обсудили американские стратегические программы

25 октября 2023г.  Центр военно-политических исследований  МГИМО  провел очередное ситуационное анализ-совещание, посвященное перспективам развития исследований современной военно-политической обстановки. Встречу традиционно модерировал директор ЦВПИ А.И. Подберезкин.

Основной темой мероприятия стало обсуждение новой билингвальной (русско-английской) монографии ведущего эксперта Центра, члена-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН В.П. Козина   «Основные военные стратегии США: анализ и последствия их применения»

В этой научной работе автором были рассмотрены шесть ключевых военно-политических стратегий США общенационального значения, принятых в период пребывания на посту президентов Дональда Трампа (2017-2021 гг.) и Джозефа Байдена (2021-2023 гг.), а именно:

- стратегия национальной безопасности;

- стратегия национальной обороны;

- ядерная стратегия;

- стратегия противоракетной обороны;

- военно-космическая стратегия;

- стратегия кибербезопасности.

В ходе презентации (см. ниже) В.П. Козин  дал  общую военно-политическую оценку новейшим американским стратегиям и представил их наиболее существенные положения, непосредственно влияющие на формирование и развитие современной военно-политической обстановки. Также докладчик ознакомил  участников мероприятия с  результатами проведённого анализа материальной  основы реализации военных планов США, рассмотрев их с точки зрения существующего и перспективного военно-технического потенциала, а также финансовых ресурсов, которые выделяются на реализацию названных стратегий в краткосрочной и долгосрочной перспективе.

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В погоне за безумной наживой

ВПК западных стран заинтересованы, чтобы на земле Украины и Донбасса как можно дольше лилась кровь

Коллективный Запад во главе с США продолжает открыто затягивать украинский конфликт, наращивая поставки военного снаряжения вооружённым силам Украины. И в этом, несомненно, заинтересованы прежде всего оружейные компании стран НАТО, для которых каждое эхо пушечного выстрела отдаётся, как образно написала в этой связи китайская газета «Хуаньцю шибао», звоном золота. О том, как влияют воротилы военно-промышленного комплекса на политику своих стран, как используют события на Украине для получения новых оружейных заказов и продвижения своих вооружений по всему миру, идёт речь в интервью, которое дал нашей газете известный политолог Владимир КОЗИН, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук Российской Федерации.

– Владимир Петрович, ни для кого не секрет, что в большинстве западных стран интересы политических кругов и оружейных магнатов тесно переплетаются…

– Совершенно верно. Взять те же США, где высшие руководители Пентагона и представители командования вооружённых сил после отставки, как правило, входят в состав совета директоров военно-промышленных предприятий или выступают в качестве их советников и лоббистов, в то время как те, кто работал на этих предприятиях, могут оказаться на правительственных должностях или в конгрессе. Например, нынешний министр обороны Ллойд Остин после окончания военной карьеры стал членом правления компании «Рейтеон текнолоджис» – разработчика и производителя ЗРК «Пэтриот», крылатых ракет «Томагавк», ПЗРК «Стингер» и многих других образцов вооружения. Теперь он возглавляет Пентагон.

Этот так называемый феномен вращающихся дверей используется в США для обеспечения стабильного потока военных денег, которые, с одной стороны, необходимы для финансирования развития вооружённых сил и их присутствия в различных регионах планеты, а с другой – идут на пополнение кошельков бизнесменов от оружия. «С 2001 года США потратили 6,4 триллиона долларов на убийства и разрушения в 85 странах, в результате чего погибла 801 тысяча человек», – отметила как-то в этой связи австралийская активистка Хелен Калдикотт. И добавила: «Что ещё хуже, так это то, что почти все члены конгресса являются пособниками убийств, получая огромные суммы денег от корпораций-убийц».

Очередным свидетельством этой сцепки стали и недавно утверждённые военные расходы США на 2022-й финансовый год, которые составили 752 млрд долларов, что на 42 млрд больше, чем в прошлом году. Одна из важных причин этого заключается в том, что поддержка таких высоких военных расходов является, так сказать, очень дешёвым проявлением патриотизма.

Комментируя принятие военного бюджета, генеральный директор «Локхид Мартин» Джеймс Тейклет заверил инвесторов, что эти расходы, которые в двенадцать раз больше ассигнований, выделенных госдепартаменту на проведение внешней политики, будут Белым домом и конгрессом значительно увеличены. По его словам, это критически важный показатель для американских компаний ВПК, которые получают почти половину всех выделенных на оборону средств.

Конечно же, у других стран коллективного Запада не столь тесное взаимодействие между политическим кругами и военно-промышленным комплексом. Но оно существует и активно себя проявляет в их действиях на международной арене.

– В том числе и в отношении Украины…

– Да. Уже неоднократно говорилось, что Запад избрал Украину в качестве своего инструмента, с помощью которого намерен значительно ослабить нашу страну, а если получится, то и разрушить её. С этой целью западные политики всячески поддерживали киевский режим и, по сути, способствовали насаждению в «незалежной» неонацистской, человеконенавистнической идеологии, а военно-промышленные компании накачивали её всевозможным оружием и военной техникой.

Так, согласно информации исследовательской службы конгресса США, с 2014 года Вашингтон оказал Киеву оборонную помощь на сумму в 4 млрд долларов. По состоянию на конец февраля этого года, американцы передали Украине порядка 1400 ПЗРК «Стингер», свыше 10 тысяч переносных противотанковых гранатомётов «Джевелин» и одноразовых противотанковых реактивных гранатомётов AT-4, а также примерно 60 млн единиц боеприпасов. Остальная часть поставленных Киеву вооружений включает винтовки, пистолеты, пулемёты, а также около 100 тактических беспилотников, 25 тыс. комплектов бронежилетов.

Союзники Вашингтона также не стояли в стороне и усиленно наполняли карманы владельцев компаний-производителей вооружений поставками на Украину боевых средств. Так, Великобритания с 2018 по 2022 год израсходовала на оказание военной помощи Украине 61,3 млн фунтов стерлингов. Они пошли на поставки различных вооружений, а также подготовку украинских военнослужащих, в том числе так называемого грузинского легиона.

Практически сплошным потоком на Украину поступали различные вооружения и боевые средства из Германии, Польши, Литвы, Канады и других стран НАТО. Всё это привело к тому, что киевский режим приступил к подготовке очередной агрессии против Донбасса.

– Но Россия сорвала эти планы, начав спецоперацию по демилитаризации и денацификации Украины, по защите населения Донбасса…

– Следует отметить, что это ничуть не огорчило воротил оружейного бизнеса. Например, генеральный директор «Рейтеон текнолоджис» Грег Хейс заявил, что он рад происходящему, считая эти события хорошим индикатором дальнейших продаж оружия. «Российско-украинский конфликт является благом для американских военных подрядчиков, которые, как ожидается, получат прибыль от увеличения расходов Запада, предназначенных для укрепления украинских вооружённых сил», – написало в свою очередь американское издание The Hill.

С начала текущего года акции таких гигантов ВПК США, как корпорация «Локхид Мартин», выросли почти на 25 процентов, а аналогичные ценные бумаги корпораций «Рейтеон текнолоджис», «Дженерал дайнэмикс» и «Нортроп груммэн» поднялись в цене в среднем на 12 процентов. Только по контракту на поставку «Джевелин», который был заключён 28 февраля 2022 года, «Рейтеон текнолоджис» и «Локхид Мартин» получат около 19,5 млн долларов.

Готовность Белого дома «подливать масло в огонь» на Украине проявилась и в повышении военно-бюджетных ассигнований Соединённых Штатов. Подписанный 15 марта президентом Джо Байденом закон предусматривает выделение на военные цели 773 млрд долларов в 2023 финансовом году, который начнётся 1 октября текущего года. Это примерно на 30 млрд долларов превышает первоначальный запрос и почти на 6 процентов больше прошлогоднего федерального военного бюджета.

Увеличение военных расходов американский президент объяснил, в том числе, и событиями на Украине: Пентагону потребуются дополнительные средства для оказания помощи киевскому режиму и противостоянию с Россией. «Это будет одна из крупнейших инвестиций в нашу национальную безопасность в истории, – заявил Байден. – Некоторым не нравится увеличение, но сегодня мы находимся в другом мире».

А пока Белый дом принял решение о предоставлении дополнительных финансовых средств Украине на военные цели в размере 800 млн долларов. Как отмечает Defense One, этот пакет включает в себя «800 зенитных установок, в том числе более дальнобойные платформы; 9000 переносных противотанковых ракетных комплексов для уничтожения танков и транспортных средств; 7000 пулемётов, винтовок и гранатомётов; 20 миллионов патронов».

США уже отгрузили для передачи Украине 100 барражирующих боеприпасов «Свитчблейд» (Switchblade) и учат украинских военных обращению с ними. Об этом сообщил официальный представитель Пентагона Джон Кирби. Он пояснил, что часть этих барражирующих дронов-камикадзе доставлена на Украину, а остальные находятся в процессе транспортировки. По словам Кирби, американцы научат обращению с барражирующими боеприпасами небольшую группу украинских военнослужащих. Для этого обычно требуется около двух дней. «Свитчблейд» – тактический барражирующий боеприпас, разработанный американской компанией «Аэровайронмент». Он предназначен, в зависимости от модификации, для поражения живой силы, незащищённой техники и бронированных целей.

Однако, по мнению конгрессменов Энди Ким, Джейсона Кроу и Питера Мейера, этих средств недостаточно. Они потребовали от президента США предоставить украинской стороне, в частности, ракеты «земля-воздух», истребители и противокорабельные ракеты. Свои требования конгрессмены мотивировали списком пожеланий, предоставленным украинскими официальными лицами Капитолию. Помимо этого, запрос законодателей включает в себя увеличение количества поставляемых ПЗРК «Стингер» и ПТРК «Джевелин», а также беспилотников с большой дальностью действия.

Впервые после Второй мировой войны американский сенат принял законопроект, который позволит возродить программу ленд-лиза для организации более быстрых поставок вооружений Украине.

– В стороне от накачивания Украины вооружением и военной техникой не остаётся и натовская Европа…

– Да, к сожалению, это так. Если раньше в Североатлантическом союзе говорили только о несмертоносных видах вооружений, то сейчас в штаб-квартире альянса уже открыто заявляют о готовности поставить киевскому режиму одновременно и оборонительные, и наступательные виды вооружений. Например, об этом заявил по итогам встречи министров иностранных дел блока, состоявшейся 6–7 апреля, генеральный секретарь НАТО Йенс Столтенберг. Ведутся разговоры на уровне глав государств и правительств о поставке «незалежной» тяжёлых видов вооружений, в том числе танков и боевых бронированных машин, а также самолётов.

Так, в чешском парламенте объявили о готовности направить на Украину 40 танков Т-72 и до 50 БТРов. Намеревается поставить в ВСУ оружие Германия, которая уже объявляла о передаче украинским силам противотанковых и противовоздушных средств. Лондон заявил в эту субботу, что передаст Киеву 120 единиц бронетехники и противокорабельные ракетные комплексы, «чтобы поддержать его на решающем этапе». В заявлении указывается, что вооружение станет дополнением к обещанной ранее военной технике на сумму 100 млн фунтов стерлингов, включающей зенитные ракеты Starstreak, высокотехнологичные боеприпасы и 800 противотанковых ракет.

Даже Швеция, формально именующая себя нейтральной страной, выделила до шести тысяч реактивных гранатомётов АТ-4. Их уже обнаружили на Украине. Они являются совместной разработкой шведской компании «СААБ Бофорс дайнэмикс» и американской корпорации «ATK».

Хотя общую сумму прибыли западных военно-промышленных компаний ещё только предстоит подсчитать, уже очевидной становится их крайняя заинтересованность в затягивании конфликта и дальнейшем углублении русофобских настроений.

– Нельзя также не заменить, что ситуацию на Украине Запад активно использует как для наращивания собственного военного потенциала, так и для проталкивания своих вооружений и военной техники в другие страны…

– Совершенно верно. Я уже упомянул о рекордном военном бюджете США на 2023-й финансовый год, который предусматривает разработку, создание и производства вооружений и военной техники для применения во всех пяти сферах – на суше, в море, воздухе, космосе и киберпространстве. И это, естественно, принесёт огромную прибыль американским военно-промышленным корпорациям.

Свою оборонную политику в спешном порядке корректируют Германия и другие европейские страны, что также сулит увеличение бизнес-возможностей военно-промышленным гигантам США. Так, недавно канцлер ФРГ Шольц заявил, что он немедленно выделяет 100 млрд евро на вооружения, которые необходимы для сдерживания России. Тем самым военные расходы Германии превысят целевой показатель расходов НАТО в размере 2 процентов от ВВП, – цель, достигнуть которой не удавалось ни одному из его предшественников после окончания холодной войны. Средства, по словам Шольца, пойдут на закупку конкретных систем вооружений, в том числе 35 многофункциональных истребителей пятого поколения F-35, которые производит компания «Локхид Мартин», и беспилотных летательных аппаратов.

На днях Польша заключила контракт на закупку 250 американских танков «Абрамс» новейшей модификации M1A2 SEPv3. Также в рамках подписанного контракта Польша покупает 26 машин технического обслуживания, 17 мостоукладчиков, боеприпасы и тренажёры для обучения экипажей танков. Общая сумма, выделенная на программу закупки танков, составляет почти 5 млрд долларов. Первые 28 танков будут доставлены со складов армии США уже в этом году, чтобы начать учебный процесс. Машины должны поступить в бронетанковые части 18-й механизированной дивизии, заменив собой советские Т-72, которые в свою очередь могут быть переданы Украине «на утилизацию».

На увеличение военных расходов и заключения новых контрактов на поставку вооружений пошли и другие страны НАТО. Вместе с тем нельзя не обратить внимания, что этот процесс выше далеко за пределы Североатлантического альянса. Так, США выделили Тайваню 95 млн долларов на покупку оборудования для ЗРК «Пэтриот». Согласно сообщению Пентагона, пакет военной помощи включает в себя обучение персонала, планирование, развёртывание, эксплуатацию, техническое обслуживание и иную поддержку ЗРК «Пэтриот» и сопутствующего оборудования на территории Тайваня.

Напомню, что США используют проблему Тайваня для сдерживания Китая. В Вашингтоне неоднократно подчёркивали, что при потенциальном нападении на остров со стороны КНР Соединённые Штаты встанут на его защиту. А пока они накачивают Тайвань свои оружием.

В свою очередь правительство Австралии одобрило ускоренное приобретение новых усовершенствованных ракет для ВВС и ВМС страны, а также морских мин. Речь идёт об авиационной ракете класса «воздух – поверхность» AGM-158B JASSM-ER с увеличенной дальностью поражения до 980 км и противокорабельных ракет NSM с дальностью поражения свыше 500 км. Морские мины предполагается использовать для защиты портов и баз. По словам министра обороны страны Питера Даттона, общая стоимость поставки оценивается в 3,5 млрд долларов.

Создавая напряжённость в Восточной Европе, Южно-Китайском море, других регионах США тем самым подталкивают находящиеся здесь страны увеличивать военные расходы. И хотя некоторые из них имеют собственную оборонно-промышленную базу, однако она не производит, как подчеркивал тот же генеральный директор «Рейтеон текнолоджис» Грег Хейс, «самостоятельно всё, что им необходимо. Так что во многих случаях они будут полагаться на нас в плане ракет, самолётов, наземной техники».

В этой связи хотелось бы напомнить одно высказывание, которое было сделано более 50 лет назад, но тем не менее не потеряло актуальности и сегодня. Оно принадлежит американскому президенту Дуайту Эйзенхауэру, который, уходя в 1961 году со своего поста, в заключительном обращении к нации предупредил, что американцы должны опасаться катастрофического роста неоправданной власти и влияния военно-промышленного комплекса.

«Теперь у нас есть нечестивый союз торговцев оружием, наёмников и средств массовой информации, – признал тогда Эйзенхауэр. – Эта коалиция наживается на войнах, поэтому её члены убеждают правительства ввязываться в войны и затягивать конфликты до бесконечности». Что, собственно говоря, делается и сегодня.

Беседовал Владимир Кузарь. Источник: «Красная звезда»

В поддержку политики России по укреплению ее национальной безопасности

16 марта член-корреспондент РАВН В.П. Козин прочитал две отдельные публичные лекции для руководящего состава и сотрудников Северо-Западного регионального центра Концерна ВКО «Алмаз-Антей», в которых на конкретных примерах показал опасный характер и масштабы реальной военной угрозы, исходящей со стороны США и НАТО в целом, а также Украины. Выступивший ответил на многочисленные вопросы аудитории. В общей сложности на лекциях присутствовали около 600 человек.

В ядерном пепле. Жизнь после

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В. Козин в программе “Скрытые угрозы” на канале “Звезда”.
 

 
Более 70 лет мы готовим ядерное оружие для будущей войны. Мы пережили массовые учебные тревоги, экскурсии в ближайшие бомбоубежища и страшные уроки Хиросимы и Чернобыля. Но до сих пор не знаем, что будет с нами после первого атомного удара! Мы все умрем – от ожогов, радиации, голода и холода «ядерной зимы»? Или мы выживем, но наши машины, компьютеры, телевизоры, аэропорты, заводы и фабрики навсегда выйдут из строя? Цивилизация сохранится или вернется на уровень каменного века? Вся планета или только проигравшая страна станут территорией смерти, без больниц, школ, власти и без возможности покинуть ее? Кому выгодно производить как можно больше ядерных боеголовок и аннулировать ограничительные договоры? По какой причине мы все чаще слышим, что ядерное оружие – не такая уж страшная вещь? Программа с Николаем Чиндяйкиным раскроет тайны «ядерных интриг» и расскажет о страшных сценариях войн нового типа: кто на самом деле будет жить после атомной бойни. 
 
Эфир от 21 января 2019г.

В. Козин: Американцы не собираются отказываться от поддержки террористов в Сирии

Минобороны назвало американскую базу в Сирии "черной дырой"

В российском Минобороны рассказали о ситуации на границе Сирии и Иордании рядом с американской базой в Эт-Танфе. По словам официального представителя ведомства генерал-майора Игоря Конашенкова, эта территория превратилась в стокилометровую "черную дыру", откуда атакуют боевики ИГ.

Как рассказали в Минобороны, Пентагон не раз заявлял, что находящиеся там инструкторы США, Великобритании и Норвегии занимаются подготовкой боевиков "Новой сирийской армии".

"Вместо "Новой сирийской армии", как черти из табакерки, оттуда совершают диверсионно-террористические вылазки против сирийских войск и мирного населения мобильные группы ИГИЛ", — сказал Конашенков.

По его словам, за полгода существования военной базы США не известно ни об одной операции против террористов.

Конашенков отметил, что чем дальше сирийские войска при поддержке ВКС продвигаются на восток, уничтожая ИГ в провинции Дейр-эз-Зор, тем все большей проблемой становится присутствие в их тылу американской военной базы.

Он также рассказал, что беженцы в лагере Рукбан стали, по сути, "живым щитом" базы в Эт-Танфе.

По словам Конашенкова, американцы не подпускают к ним гуманитарные конвои "ни от сирийского правительства, ни от Иордании, ни от ООН и других международных организаций".

"Напомню, что подобными "защитными" барьерами, кроме американцев, пользуются в Сирии только те, с кем они пришли туда бороться, — террористы", — заявил представитель Минобороны.

Крупнейший лагерь беженцев Рукбан расположен в зоне "безопасности" рядом с американской базой, практически в пустыне. По самым минимальным оценкам, там сейчас находятся более 60 тысяч женщин и детей из Ракки и Дейр-эз-Зора.

Заигрывание с террористами

Еще в среду Минобороны сообщило об атаке ИГ на войска сирийской армии из зоны расположения "военной миссии США" и отметило, что террористы могли получить разведданные о расположении постов правительственных войск от американцев.

"Мы не раз обращали внимание, что основным препятствием для завершения разгрома ИГИЛ в Сирии является не боеспособность террористов, а поддержка и заигрывание с ними американских коллег", — сказал Конашенков.

Он отметил, что, по всей видимости, успехи сирийской армии при поддержке ВКС идут вразрез с планами США. Очередным примером, по его словам, стала попытка террористов провести 28 сентября атаку в тылу сирийских войск, когда около 300 боевиков ИГ* из района населенного пункта Рукбан на десятках внедорожников выдвинулись к городу Эль-Карьятейн в провинции Хомс.

"Причем крупный отряд террористов успешно обошел все скрытые посты сирийских войск в районах населенного пункта Харбат Аш-Шхеми и населенного пункта Эль-Басири вовсе не по везению", — сказал Конашенков.

Представитель Минобороны заявил, что у боевиков на руках были совершенно точные координаты, которые можно получить только благодаря воздушной разведке, обработанные специалистами.

"С рассветом данный отряд террористов попытался захватить господствующие высоты вокруг населенного пункта Эль-Карьятейн", — добавил Конашенков.

Он также отметил, что в этот же день террористы ИГ провели серию скоординированных атак на другие посты сирийских войск, расположенные вдоль трассы Пальмира — Дейр-эз-Зор, по которой идет снабжение военных и доставляется гуманитарная помощь.

"Перечисленные атаки террористов объединяет только одно — все они осуществлялись из 50-километровой зоны вокруг населенного пункта Эт-Танф на сирийско-иорданской границе. Той самой, где расположена "военная миссия США" и куда в буквальном смысле даже на пушечный выстрел американцы не подпускали подразделения сирийских войск, преследующих террористов", — заявил Конашенков.

Официальный представитель Минобороны подчеркнул, что сирийской армии пришлось приложить значительные усилия, чтобы нейтрализовать мобильные группы террористов на трассе Пальмира — Дейр-эз-Зор и освободить захваченные боевиками населенные пункты.

"Если американская сторона рассматривает такие операции как непредвиденные "случайности", то российские ВКС в Сирии готовы приступить к полному уничтожению всех подобных "случайностей" в подконтрольной им зоне", — заключил он.

Цели США в Сирии

Военные эксперты едины во мнении, что США оказывают помощь террористам в Сирии, чтобы свергнуть легитимного президента Башара Асада.

Профессор Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин высказал мнение, что американцы не собираются отказываться от поддержки террористов в Сирии.

"Террористические группировки в Сирии оказывают очень сильное сопротивление. Но без финансовой, разведывательной, военной, советнической помощи они бы не смогли существовать столь долго — уже более пяти лет после начала этой войны", — сказал он.

По его словам, Вашингтон хочет "воссоздать и укрепить международный террористический "интернационал", но не на своей территории, а на территориях, которые находятся в непосредственной близости к России".

"Кроме того, они хотят ликвидировать законный режим Башара Асада, который их не устраивает. Поэтому создают военно-террористический хаос для того, чтобы держать в напряжении другие государства, а заодно поставлять оружие и боевую технику своим союзникам, которые якобы тоже борются из последних сил с терроризмом", — заявил эксперт.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: Украинские военные сами не ожидали победы в "воздушном бою"

На Украине провели учебный бой между Су-27 и F-15. В эфире радио Sputnik военный эксперт Владимир Козин высказал мнение, что украинские военные сами не ожидали победы в маневрах.

На Украине подвели итоги условного боя между Су-27 и F-15 в рамках авиационных учений "Чистое небо – 2018".

Многоцелевой истребитель четвертого поколения Су-27, стоящий на вооружении ВСУ, на дистанции от километра до полутора показал себя лучше, чем F-15C Eagle Национальной гвардии США. Видео обнародовало "Военное телевидение Украины".

С обеих сторон в маневрах были задействованы группы по четыре-пять самолетов.

Старший штурман авиационной бригады Александр Мостовой рассказал, что Су-27 вышел победителем из воздушного боя за счет большей маневренности. Этого удалось добиться благодаря лучшей "механизации", установленной на самолете, отметил Мостовой.

Авиационные учения "Чистое небо – 2018" проходят в Хмельницкой и Винницкой областях с 8 по 19 октября. Наряду с Украиной в них принимают участие страны – члены НАТО: Бельгия, Дания, Великобритания, Нидерланды, Эстония, Румыния, Польша и США.

В эфире радио Sputnik профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин высказал мнение, что украинские военные сами не ожидали победы в "воздушном бою".

"Считаю, что была задумана очередная украинская провокация, направленная на то, чтобы очернить Россию. В учениях был задействован самолет советского производства. На Украине наверняка исходили из того, что проиграют, а американский самолет F-15 одержит победу в этом условном боевом поединке", – сказал Владимир Козин.

По мнению военного эксперта, противостояние именно с американским самолетом было неслучайным.

"На Украине хотят приучить своих граждан к тому, что американцы будут участвовать в боевых действиях на стороне Украины и, таким образом, осуществлять свои геополитические планы. Хочу сказать, что это уже не первый случай, когда на Украине проводятся крупномасштабные учения с привлечением Вооруженных сил США, других государств – членов НАТО. Это не способствует укреплению доверия, безопасности и стабильности в этом "неврологическом" регионе. И вина за подобные действия ложится как на украинскую, так и на американскую сторону", – отметил Владимир Козин.

Советский/российский многоцелевой высокоманевренный всепогодный истребитель-перехватчик Су-27, предназначенный для завоевания превосходства в воздухе, разработали в ОКБ Сухого. Одним из главных конструкторов истребителя и некоторых его модификаций был Герой России Михаил Симонов.

Первый полет Су-27 совершил 20 мая 1977 года. Серийное производство было развернуто в 1982 году в Комсомольске-на-Амуре. В 1984 году истребитель приняли на вооружение Советской Армии.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: Это хорошо продуманный и реалистический шаг

Аналитик Дмитрий Корнев: у России меньше ядерных боеголовок и ракет, но они более совершенные

Военные эксперты рассказали в эфире пресс-центра медиагруппы «Патриот», почему приостановка участия в договоре СНВ-3 не втянет Россию в изнурительную гонку вооружений.
 
Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ (РАВН) Владимир Козин приветствует приостановку участия России в договоре СНВ-3. По его словам, это хорошо продуманный и реалистический шаг со стороны российского руководства, который позволит приостановить агрессивные выпады США в адрес РФ.
 
«Шаг этот ответный с нашей стороны. Его, в принципе, можно было даже сделать и раньше, поскольку договор СНВ-3, который был подписан в 2010 году в Праге, нарушался США неоднократно», — заявил Владимир Козин в эфире пресс-центра медиагруппы «Патриот».
 
По словам эксперта, американцы постоянно создавали препятствия для работы российских инспекторских групп: затягивали выдачу виз, блокировали банковские карты, но главное – не допускали их к осмотру вооружения переоборудованных подводных лодок и других носителей ядерного оружия.
 
«Американцы инициировали переоборудование 101 носителя ЯО, в которые входят 56 баллистических ракет подводных лодок "Трайдент-2", 41 тяжелый бомбардировщик B52H и четыре МБР шахтного базирования, но не дали нашим инспекторам осмотреть их. Кроме этого, они запрещали нашим инспекторским группам открывать конусный обтекатель баллистических ракет подводных лодок и баллистических ракет межконтинентальной дальности наземного базирования "Минитман-3". В общем, ситуация сложилась крайне неприятная, поскольку это однозначное нарушение договора», — отметил Владимир Козин.
 
Приостановка участия в СНВ-3, подчеркнул эксперт, не означает тотального выхода РФ из договора. По его словам, Россия и далее будет придерживаться тех количественных параметров, которые были установлены «братским» договором: иметь 1550 стратегических ядерных боезарядов и по 800 оперативно развернутых и оперативно не развернутых носителей для этих боезарядов.
 
Реакция США на приостановку участия РФ в СНВ-3, по словам эксперта, свидетельствует, что рыло у американцев в пуху: вместо того, чтобы успокоить мировую общественность, заявив, что они готовы предоставить российским инспекторам на свои ядерные объекты, США перекладывают ответственность за нагнетание напряженности на РФ.
 
Обвиняя во всем Россию, Запада молчит, что имеющихся у НАТО ядерных боеголовок в полтора раза больше, чем у России. По словам эксперта, договор СНВ-3 не распространяется на ядерный арсенал Великобритании и Франции, а они совокупно владеют 609 единицами стратегических ядерных вооружений.
 
«У британцев сегодня имеется 225 стратегических ядерных боезарядов на четырех подводных лодках класса "Вэнгард", у Франции 384 ядерных боезаряда тоже на четырех подводных атомных лодках "Триумфан" и еще есть ядерные боезаряды воздушного базирования», — отметил Владимир Козин.
 
По словам Владимира Козина, дополнительную угрозу РФ создает тактическое ядерное оружие США, которое с середины 1950-х годов размещено на территории нескольких европейских стран: Бельгии, Нидерландов, Италии и Германия и на азиатской части Турции. Кроме этого, американцы придумали еще одну хитрость: убедили российских переговорщиков, что американский тяжелый стратегический бомбардировщик, который может нести до двух десятков ядерных ракет или авиабомб, нужно считать, как одну единицу носителя ЯО.
 
«Как вообще наши переговорщики пошли на такую уловку?» — удивляется Владимир Козин.
По подсчетам эксперта, на европейском театре военных действий США располагают 500 единицами тактического ядерного оружия и на континентальной части США еще до 3 тысяч единиц. По его мнению, этот арсенал ядерных вооружений обязательно должен учитываться при заключении договоров о контроле над ним.
 
Ранее глава немецкого военного концерна Rheinmetall AG Армин Паппергер заявил, что правительство Германии оставило Берлин без защиты с воздуха. По его словам, это произошло по причине того, что власти ФРГ передали Украине системы ПВО Skynex и Skyranger.
 

В. Козин: "Закидоны". О словах Трампа про Черногорию, НАТО и Третью мировую

Президент США Дональд Трамп заявил, что Черногория может втянуть НАТО в Третью мировую войну. Насколько эти оценки близки к реальности, в эфире радио Sputnik рассказал военный эксперт Владимир Козин.

Президент США Дональд Трамп в интервью Fox News заявил, что новый член НАТО Черногория может втянуть альянс в Третью мировую войну.

Трамп обвинил жителей Черногории в "агрессивности", заявив, что Черногория – это крошечная страна с "очень агрессивным народом".

"Они могут разозлиться, и, поздравляю, у вас Третья мировая война", – сказал американский президент.

Профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин не согласен с такими оценками,

"Это преувеличение. У Черногории такая маленькая армия, нет ядерного оружия, нет противоракетных систем, нет военных баз на территории других государств. К тому же, я не считаю, что население Черногории агрессивно", – сказал Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik.

Военный эксперт прокомментировал слова Трампа о том, что войска США не должны защищать Черногорию, потому что она "даже не платит". Владимир Козин полагает, что Трамп не сможет пересмотреть принцип коллективной обороны НАТО.

"Для этого надо менять Вашингтонский договор об образовании НАТО. Но для этого мнения одного Трампа недостаточно. Мне кажется, это обычные "закидоны". Третья мировая война не является неизбежной, хотя и нельзя просто ее отбрасывать. У США, Великобритании и Франции есть стратегия нанесения первого ядерного удара. И господин Трамп увеличил количество оснований применения ядерного оружия с шести, которые были у Обамы, до четырнадцати. Причем, есть явно дурацкие, "резиновые". Например, технологические прорывы в других государствах. Можно что угодно протащить под это дело", – отметил Владимир Козин.

Черногория официально стала 29-м членом НАТО в начале июня 2017 года. Значительная часть населения бывшей югославской республики выступала против присоединения к альянсу, в стране проходили акции протеста.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: "Ни в какие ворота…"

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО о публикации в США о "войне" с Россией

Американский военный эксперт Крис Осборн в статье для журнала National Interest оценил шансы США в случае сухопутной войны с Россией.

Автор публикации отметил, что в распоряжении российских вооруженных сил 12 тысяч танков, что в два раза больше, чем у США.

"Эти данные ставят перед нами любопытный вопрос о перспективах продолжительной наземной войны", – пишет Осборн.

При этом он отметил, что прогнозирование вероятного исхода столкновения осложняется отсутствием данных, касающихся технической модернизации танков Т-72Б.

Эксперт также подчеркнул, что Россия – сухопутная держава, а у США "огромная военно-морская и военно-воздушная мощь". По его мнению, в связи с этим победить Россию на суше американцы смогут, если получат преимущество в небе.

В эфире радио Sputnik член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО Владимир Козин прокомментировал публикацию.

"Давать такие оценки и предположения не просто некорректно. Это вообще ни в какие ворота не лезет. Это явная провокация. Это попытка сопоставить виды вооружений, словно завтра начнется крупномасштабная война, боевые действия между двумя странами. Американцы что, собираются захватывать какие-то территориальные пространства у нас в стране? Да это просто нонсенс. Если бы в каком-то нашем издании появились подобные откровения, сопоставления и даже прикрытые угрозы, то это вызвало бы в США большой шум и разного рода негативные комментарии", – сказал Владимир Козин.

По его мнению, в США слишком увлечены милитаризмом.

"В США, в последние годы особенно, воцарился дух безудержного милитаризма. Разыгрываются разного рода сценарии: и ядерные, и неядерные, и воздушные, и танковые баталии. Вот спрашивается: зачем они воссоздают дух повышенного милитаризма в своем обществе? Чтобы прикрыть свои грешки во внутренней политике? Я просто удивлен такими непрофессиональными и опасными публикациями", – отметил Владимир Козин.

Источник: радио Sputnik

В. Козин: "Танцоры – на сцену!"

Западная коалиция вывезла из сирийской провинции Дейр-эз-Зор боевиков ИГ, сообщили СМИ. Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik рассказал, с какой целью, по его мнению, вывозятся боевики.

Международная коалиция во главе с США вывезла из сирийской провинции Дейр-эз-Зор боевиков террористической группировки "Исламское государство" (ИГ), сообщает агентство SANA со ссылкой на источники среди местного населения и СМИ.

По данным сирийского агентства, вертолеты коалиции вывезли террористов разных национальностей из района деревни аш-Шаафа к юго-востоку от Дейр-эз-Зора.

В конце сентября SANA сообщило, что коалиция высадила десант в районе деревни аль-Мурашида на юго-востоке провинции и вывезла оттуда "чиновников" ИГ. При этом в пресс-службе совместной объединенной оперативной группы операции "Непоколебимая решимость" РИА Новости заявили, что никаких действий по эвакуации боевиков не проводилось.

Профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik предположил, с какой целью из разных районов Сирии вывозятся члены террористических группировок.

"Их вывезли, несомненно, чтобы спасти от уничтожения и потом вновь бросить в бой, чтобы необъявленная война против Сирии продолжалась. И делается это уже далеко не в первый раз. Американцы делают все, чтобы спасти от уничтожения костяк руководства террористов. Одновременно многие страны западной коалиции продолжают поставки оружия антиправительственным формированиям. И нужно назвать исполнителей – как говорится, танцора на сцену: это США, Великобритания, Франция, ФРГ, Израиль, Болгария и другие. Конечно, здесь в полной мере проявляются двойные стандарты коалиции – на словах они готовы бороться с терроризмом, а на деле на протяжении уже семи лет снабжают террористов оружием, спасают их жизни, дают возможность уйти от возмездия", – отметил Владимир Козин.

По его словам, террористические группировки и находящиеся на территории Сирии американские войска выполняют одну и ту же задачу, ведя войну против законного правительства этой страны.

"На территории Сирии, по данным западных СМИ, создано уже 22 американские военные базы. Они действуют, опираясь на развитую военную инфраструктуру США в регионе, поскольку большое количество баз находится вокруг Сирии, на территории сопредельных государств. По сути дела, речь можно вести о вторжении на территорию суверенной страны. Что по всем международным нормам следует квалифицировать уже не только как агрессию, но и фактически как попытку оккупации", – сказал Владимир Козин.    

США и их союзники с 2014 года проводят в Ираке и Сирии военные действия против ИГ, причем в Сирии находятся без согласия властей. Россия с 2015 года проводит антиреррористическую операцию в Сирии по запросу Дамаска.

Источник: Sputnik

В. Козин: B61-12 рассматриваются в Пентагоне как «оружие первого ядерного удара»

США прикроют мир тактическим ядерным зонтиком

Вашингтон форсирует программы, связанные с модернизацией тактического ядерного оружия (ТЯО). Национальное управление ядерной безопасности (NNSA) Министерства энергетики США сообщило вчера об очередных успешных испытаниях атомной бомбы B61-12 (без ядерного заряда), которые проведены в штате Невада еще 8 августа с.г. Почему информация об испытаниях появилась только сейчас, неизвестно. Но она практически совпала с тем моментом, когда в мире стали обсуждать состоявшийся утром во вторник запуск Пхеньяном баллистической ракеты, которая пролетела над территорией Японии, где дислоцируются военные базы Пентагона.

Угрозы, которые несут ракетные и ядерные программы КНДР, вызвали соответствующую реакцию в Южной Корее. В Сеуле оппозиционная партия «Свободная Корея» объявила, что будет добиваться размещения в стране американского ТЯО, которое было выведено из этой страны в 1991 году. Этот вопрос обсуждался еще осенью 2016 года в консультационном совете при президенте Южной Кореи. Прежний президент США Барак Обама к подобным идеям относился весьма сдержанно. Однако не исключено, что новый глава Белого дома Дональд Трамп поддержит размещение ТЯО на военных базах США на Корейском полуострове, а может, и на объектах Пентагона в Японии, а также в других регионах мира. Он уже заявил недавно, что «США останутся самой мощной ядерной державой, так как другие страны не отказываются от атомного оружия». Данное заявление прозвучало спустя три дня после того, как в Неваде испытали тактическую ядерную бомбу B61-12.

США являются единственным государством, которое размещает ядерное вооружение за пределами национальной территории, в том числе в четырех странах Европы и на азиатской части Турции. Западные СМИ писали, что бомбы B61-12 пополнят ядерные арсеналы НАТО в ФРГ, Италии, Бельгии и, возможно, в Польше, чего сейчас активно добивается Варшава.

Новое ТЯО должно прийти на смену устаревшим моделям бомб авиационного базирования. B61-12 отличается от своих предшественниц тем, что там вместо парашюта в хвостовой части оборудованы специальные рули с инерциальной системой наведения, увеличивающей точность применения. Как отмечает главный советник директора Российского института стратегических исследований Владимир Козин, эти бомбы США начнут серийно производить с этого года. Они рассматриваются в Пентагоне как «оружие первого ядерного удара». Бомба имеет незначительный показатель кругового вероятного отклонения (до 30 м) и может применяться против высокозащищенных командных пунктов и шахт межконтинентальных баллистических ракет. По данным Козина, планируется произвести до 930 таких авиабомб и израсходовать на модернизацию арсенала ТЯО к 2038 году до 65 млрд долл.

Бригадный генерал ядерной администрации США Майкл Латтон считает, что бомбы B61 являются «одним из важнейших элементов ядерной триады США». Надо учесть, что ТЯО авиационного базирования не учитывается никакими международными договорами. Однако размещение ТЯО в государствах и регионах, граничащих с Россией, может иметь стратегический эффект, поскольку при возникновении военного конфликта время подлета тактической авиации к стратегическим объектам РФ и ее союзников составляет считаные минуты.

Отмечалось, что бомбой B61-12 можно будет снаряжать самолеты B-2A, B-21, F-15E, F-16C/D, F-16 MLU, F-35 и PA-200. Это, по сути, стратегическая и тактическая авиация, которая регулярно совершает облет территорий, граничащих с Россией, в том числе и Арктический регион.

По указанию президента США Пентагон сейчас организует исследование и разработку других авиационных носителей ядерного оружия, в том числе нового поколения крылатых ракет, которые смогут заменить стоящие на вооружении с 1980-х годов ракеты AGM-86B. Представитель ВВС США Хизер Уилсон сообщил на прошлой неделе, что с этой целью Пентагон заключил два контракта, каждый стоимостью по 900 млн долл., с корпорациями Lockheed Martin Corp и Raytheon Co. Планируется, что Армия США закупит около 1 тыс. ракет нового поколения. Стоимость их приобретения оценивается в 10 млрд долл. Для сравнения: эта сумма составляет почти шестую часть всего российского оборонного бюджета.

В экспертном сообществе обращают внимание на то, что свой приход к власти Трамп начал с постановки задач Пентагону о пересмотре и оценке состояния ядерного потенциала страны. Рекомендации военного ведомства по его использованию должны быть предложены американскому президенту к концу года. Но уже сейчас ясно, что в Пентагоне склоняются к разработкам и массовому принятию на вооружение относительно маломощных боеприпасов ТЯО.

Об этом, к примеру, заявил заместитель председателя Объединенного комитета начальников штабов США генерал Пол Сельва, выступая недавно в Вашингтоне в Институте Митчелла. По его мнению, США должны быть готовы применять свое тактическое ядерное оружие против вооруженных сил «небольших режимов» или в ответ на «маломощную» ядерную атаку держав, таких как КНР или Россия. При этом применение ТЯО объясняется гуманными целями: мол, «чтобы по возможности избегать массовой гибели мирного населения противника». Не исключено, что США применят ТЯО в возможном конфликте с КНДР для того, чтобы максимально быстро и без какой-либо наземной боевой операции уничтожить военные заводы Северной Кореи и ослабить боевые возможности армии противника.        

Автор: Владимир Мухин, Источник: «Независимая газета»

В. Козин: Абстрактные цифры военных затрат не отражают того, что происходит в военной экономике

В 2020 году военные расходы России составили 61,7 млрд долларов. Согласно опубликованному в понедельник ежегодному отчету Стокгольмского международного института исследования проблем мира (SIPRI), этот показатель вырос по сравнению с 2019 годом на 2,5 процента, а год стал вторым подряд, когда расходы России на оборону росли.

В результате по абсолютным военным расходам Россия оказалась между занявшей пятое место Великобританией (59,2 млрд долларов) и бронзовый призёром Индией (72,9 млрд долларов). На первую пятерку стран пришлось 62% всех мировых военных расходов, составивших 1 трлн 918 млрд долларов.

Абсолютные размеры в этой области, впрочем, мало о чем говорят. Куда важнее то, на что конкретно идут деньги: на мебель в кабинетах генералов, рутинное поддержание боеготовности или на разработку передовых систем вооружений, указывают эксперты.

Доля военных и сопутствующих затрат в отношении к национальному ВВП (так называемый military burden или, по-русски, военное бремя) за прошлый год выросла в России на 0,5%. Это второе место в мире по темпам прироста после Саудовской Аравии, где показатель составил 0,6%. Третье место занял Израиль (0,4%), четвертое — США (0,3%).

Из-за того, что пандемия, по данным МВФ, привела к падению глобального ВВП на 4,4%, доля военных расходов в нем выросла до 2,4%, что на 0,2 процентных пункта выше по сравнению с 2019 годом. Это, указывает SIPRI, самый резкий подскок после 2009 года, когда мир также пребывал в экономическом и финансовом кризисе.

Национальный военный бюджет — а с ним и military burden — в 2020 году в процентах к ВВП сократился в Бразилии, Китае и Южной Корее, так как эти страны перенаправили часть средств из оборонки на борьбу с пандемией. Самый же высокий рост расходов в процентах к прошлому году показала Уганда — там затраты на вооружения подскочили сразу на 46% — что, однако, не делает эту африканскую страну сверхдержавой.

Саудовская Аравия, упомянутая в отчете SIPRI как обладатель первого места по показателю военного бремени в 2020 году, уже не первый год подтверждает правоту выводов экспертов. Армия саудитов, на вооружении которой находится 1100 американских танков Abrams, с 2015 года не может справиться с повстанцами в Йемене. Хуситы же, вооруженные техникой времен Второй мировой войны, в списке SIPRI не упомянуты вообще. А зря — вот у кого, заодно с талибами, можно поучиться умению воевать с превосходящим по всем показателям противником.

Инфраструктура и социалка против обороноспособности

SIPRI обращает внимание, что в абсолютных цифрах российский военный бюджет в 2020 году оказался даже на 6,6% меньше, чем закладывалось в первоначальном проекте — и это на фоне общемирового роста военных расходов на 2,6%. Но это не помешало российским военным разработчикам успешно испытывать новейшие образцы вооружений.

•             20 апреля 2020 года Минобороны России получило первый беспилотный комплекс «Орион» из трех аппаратов.

•             12 июня 2020 года в состав ВМФ РФ принят подводный ракетный крейсер «Князь Владимир».

•             Осенью 2020 года прошли успешные испытания гиперзвуковой ракеты «Циркон».

•             25 декабря 2020 года Воздушно-космическим силам России был передан первый серийный истребитель пятого поколения Су-57.

•             Состав российской ядерной триады в 2020 году пополнили пять модернизированных стратегических бомбардировщиков Ту-95МСМ.

•             Уже в 2021 году, 26 апреля, Россия успешно испытала новую ракету, которая будет поставлена на дежурство в систему противоракетной и противокосмической обороны.

В США военные расходы в 2020 году выросли на 4,4%, до 778 млрд долларов — это 39% всех военных расходов в мире. Правда, с 2011 по 2018 год американский военный бюджет ежегодно сокращался, так что сейчас Пентагон наверстывает упущенное. А в Китае, подчеркивает SIPRI, военный бюджет последний раз сокращался 26 лет назад — ни одна страна в мире так долго без перерыва не накачивала деньгами свой ВПК.

И всё же, при почти 12-кратной разнице военных бюджетов не в пользу России российским вооруженным силам удается не просто поддерживать стратегический паритет с США, но и опережать их по ряду направлений.

Это лишний раз говорит о том, что абстрактные цифры военных затрат не отражают того, что происходит в военной экономике, подчеркивает член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин.

«Абсолютные цифры military burden — военного бремени — не позволяют адекватно сравнивать обороноспособность стран, потому что в этих расходах “утоплены” статьи, которые напрямую к военным разработкам и поддержанию боеготовности военных потенциалов отношения не имеют. Гораздо важнее то, насколько эффективно используются и куда конкретно вкладываются выделенные на оборону средства. А в этом Россия точно впереди Пентагона, так как более эффективна», — говорит он.

К непрямым расходам, далёким от задачи обеспечения безопасности государства как такового, можно отнести, например, содержание авианосных ударных группировок, а главное — огромной инфраструктуры из более чем 800 военных баз США по всему миру, полагает эксперт. Он обращает внимание на то, что США имеют за рубежом на постоянной основе системы ПРО наземного базирования и авиационные средства с тактическим ядерным оружием на борту — в последнем случае на территории пяти иностранных государств. Кроме того, часть военных расходов США проходит по «закрытым», то есть секретным, ассигнованиям Министерства энергетики, которое имеет отношение к ядерному оружию.

Кроме того, огромную долю бюджета американского военного ведомства составляют затраты, которые вообще не имеют прямого — а в значительной части даже косвенного — отношения к поддержанию обороноспособности страны. Это, например, военные пенсии, социальные выплаты, поддержание бытовой инфраструктуры американских Вооруженных сил.

Козин указывает также на несопоставимые затраты на денежное довольствие американских и российских военнослужащих. «Зарплата американского военного и его российского коллеги отличается в разы, а эти расходы тоже спрятаны в военном бюджете Пентагона, - напоминает он. - Вообще, ценообразование в Минобороны РФ намного более щадящее для бюджета. В американском военном ведомстве считается совершенно нормальной практикой приобретать товары, услуги, комплектующие и т.д. по ценам, десятикратно превышающим их стоимость цену в гражданском секторе. Из всего этого складываются астрономически цифры расходов США, которые при этом не обеспечивают их превосходства в технологиях. Достаточно вспомнить тот же гиперзвук», — говорит эксперт.

По его словам, если еще пару лет назад американцы тратили на военные цели столько, сколько расходовали в сумме шесть государств, обладающих самыми крупными военными потенциалами, то сейчас

Соединенные Штаты вливают в военную сферу столько долларов, сколько выделяют на эти цели уже десять таких государств вместе взятых. А в эту «десятку» входят, между прочим, все остальные великие державы, подчеркивает Козин.

Автор: Игорь Серебряный. Источник: Эксперт.ру

 

В. Козин: Азиатское турне вряд ли поможет укрепить позиции Тегерана

Зариф ищет поддержки у азиатских партнеров

Министр иностранных дел Ирана Мохаммад Джавад Зариф совершает турне по странам Азии с целью заручиться поддержкой партнеров в регионе. В начале недели он побывал в Пекине, где провел переговоры с китайским коллегой Ваном И. Министры обсудили ситуацию вокруг Совместного всеобъемлющего плана действий (СВПД) и возможности его сохранения в условиях выхода из сделки США. Следующими пунктами в маршруте Зарифа числятся Япония и Малайзия.

Определенную поддержку от Запада Зариф получил в Биаррице, где проходил саммит «большой семерки». Его хозяин президент Франции Эмманюэль Макрон продемонстрировал, что Европа готова сохранить ядерную сделку и убедить США пойти на диалог с Ираном.

Весомую поддержку Иран рассчитывает получить от азиатских партнеров. Как заявили Japan Times источники в правительстве, в Токио Зариф должен встретиться с министром иностранных дел Таро Коно, чтобы обсудить обострившуюся ситуацию вокруг Персидского залива. Это первые переговоры Зарифа и Коно после того, как США в прошлом месяце призвали союзников, включая Японию, присоединиться к коалиции по охране танкеров в Ормузском заливе. Ожидается, что в среду Зариф будет принят премьер-министром Синдзо Абэ, сказал источник газеты.

Абэ недавно был с визитом в Тегеране, пытаясь сыграть роль посредника в налаживании американо-иранского диалога. Эта миссия успехом не увенчалась, однако тот факт, что Абэ станет уже вторым после Макрона лидером G7, который примет Зарифа, говорит о силе иранской дипломатии. Несмотря на то что Британия и Австралия объявили о своем участии в коалиции по патрулированию Ормузского пролива, Япония считает, что это может навредить ее дружественным отношениям с Ираном.

Тегеран активно развивает связи с Японией, Китаем и рядом азиатских государств, следуя стратегии диверсификации и укрепления международных связей. На этот регион приходится большой объем торговли Ирана, что особенно важно в период действия жестких американских санкций против Тегерана.

На встрече в Пекине Ван И заявил, что Ирану и Китаю необходимо объединить усилия по противодействию однополярности и пренебрежению международным правом. Китай является важным экономическим партнером Ирана, на него приходится 10% импорта Исламской Республики. Китай также один из шести подписантов ядерной сделки в 2015 году. Ван вновь заверил Зарифа, что Китай приветствует международные усилия, направленные на сохранение Совместного всеобъемлющего плана действий (СВПД). Он заявил, что Китай поддерживает любые шаги, способные снизить напряженность и повысить стабильность и безопасность в Персидском заливе, а также законные права Ирана, перечисленные в СВПД.

В свою очередь, Зариф осудил экономическое давление на Китай со стороны США, а также на фоне протестов в Гонконге высказался против вмешательства Вашингтона и других стран во внутренние дела Поднебесной.

По мнению ведущего эксперта Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимира Козина, азиатское турне вряд ли поможет укрепить позиции Тегерана. «Антииранские позиции будут преобладать, пока существует неравенство в ведущих странах НАТО. И пока баланс сил в Североатлантическом альянсе не изменится, страны Азиатского региона вряд ли смогут оказать существенное влияние на изменение политики США и Европы в отношении Ирана», – сказал он.

Автор: Екатерина Покровская, Источник: НГ

 

 

В. Козин: Америка нарушает международные договоренности, направляя оружие ВСУ

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в в эфире телеканала Москва 24.

 

 

В. Козин: Американские танки еще вернутся в Литву

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО рассказал, чего ждать на Балтике

Тяжелые танки "Абрамс" в составе механизированного батальона вооруженных сил США в рамках ротации покидают Литву, передает Sputnik Литва. Погруженная на железнодорожные платформы бронетехника направляется в Германию, откуда морем вернется в США.

С уходом танкового батальона уровень противостояния в этой части Европы незначительно уменьшится, отметил профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин.

"Предполагаю, что это возможная реакция американской стороны на заявление Москвы, что РФ не будет проводить крупномасштабных военных учений в зоне соприкосновения в Европе. Об этом сообщил накануне начальник Главного оперативного управления Генштаба ВС РФ генерал-полковник Сергей Рудской", - пояснил Козин Sputnik Латвия.

Эксперт предположил, что американские танки еще вернутся в Литву.

"Все пять американских стратегий предполагают сохранение высокого уровня военного присутствия США в Балтийском регионе. Здесь остаются тяжелые виды вооружений в виде артиллерии и бронетранспортеров, остается американская авиация - причем самолеты двойного назначения, сертифицированные под доставку не только обычных авиабомб, но и ядерных. Так что ситуация на Балтике остается напряженной и без танков "Абрамс", - констатировал Козин.

По его словам, у самой Литвы нет никакой необходимости держать американские войска на своей территории - обстановку в регионе накаляют именно США.

"Латвия, Литва и Эстония уже тратят на военные цели 2% ВВП, и жителям этих стран не очень нравится, что такие огромные деньги расходуются в непродуктивных целях. Может быть, в связи с инициативой РФ американцы призадумаются и понизят градус накала в регионе, ведь именно они являются инициаторами крупных военных учений на Балтике", - подчеркнул Козин.

Он напомнил, что в год НАТО проводит в Восточной и Южной Европе, недалеко от российских рубежей, до 300 учений разного калибра. "Вместо этого США стоит задуматься о борьбе с коронавирусом и создании эффективной вакцины, чтобы не допустить повторения той волны смертей, которая у них случилась", - добавил Козин.

Под надуманным предлогом российской агрессии НАТО не прекращает стягивать личный состав и военную технику к границам РФ. Власти России неоднократно отмечали, что не имеют наступательных планов ни в одном из регионов мира, включая Балтийский, и вынуждены принимать адекватные меры в связи с наращиванием присутствия альянса у своих границ.

Источник: Sputnik

 

 

В. Козин: Американский термин «гибридная война» - это совершенно пропагандистское клише

Армия США подготовила методичку по борьбе с Россией

В сети опубликовали издание для армии США, в котором описана «тактика России по ведению гибридной войны». С помощью иллюстраций и схем «Пособие по российскому военному делу нового поколения» учит американских солдат противостоять «вмешательству РФ».

«Новая цель российских военных — это полная смена системы государства, современный российский подход использует любые рычаги давления для достижения этих изменений», — пишут на страницах пособия.

Авторами 68-страничной методички заявлены армия США и группа по асимметричной войне. Специалисты рассказывают о «гибридной тактике» России на поле боя, когда помимо основных войск и военной техники, командование использует всевозможные методы воздействия на оппонента: агитацию среди местного населения, информационные и кибератаки, а также подрывную деятельность в тылу противника.

Ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин объяснил «Политике Сегодня», что термин «гибридной войны» со стороны США скрывает за собой не более чем пропагандистский штамп.

«В действующей российской военной доктрине нет положения о том, что РФ ведет какую-то "гибридную войну" против других государств. И никаких заявлений от высшего руководства и командования об этом я не слышал. Это совершенно пропагандистское клише. Его распространением занимаются, к сожалению, очень многие зарубежные "эксперты"», — отметил специалист.

Идею о «гибридной войне» продвигает не только армия США, но и ряд СМИ, которые находятся на территории РФ. С этой точки зрения, говорить об «агитации» мирного населения со стороны России просто глупо, считает Козин.

«Такие СМИ получают разного рода финансовые вливания из Штатов, которые позволяют публиковать разные фейки, псевдооткрытия и обработку общественного мнения в России. <…> Их деятельность нужно пресекать без разбирательств и обсуждений», — добавил эксперт.

Авторы учебного пособия пишут, что Россия долгие годы «наблюдала за трансформацией американской армии» и овладела тактикой использования пилотируемых систем обнаружения объектов противника на поле боя. По мнению военнослужащих США, особое внимание при столкновении с Россией стоит уделить современным средствам радиоэлектронной борьбы.

Автор: Роман Самойлов,  Источник: ИА «Политика сегодня»

В. Козин: Американцам вообще больше не следует использовать меч и огонь в Афганистане

 

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Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе “Кардиограмма дня” на радио Sputnik.

Число жертв взрывов у аэропорта Кабула увеличилось до 170. Погибли 13 американских военных. Это первые боевые потери американцев в Афганистане с начала 2020 года и самые крупные за десятилетие. Президент США Джо Байден в обращении к нации заявил, что уже ведется подготовка к нанесению ударов по террористам. Ранее ИГИЛ (запрещена в РФ) взяла ответственность за теракт.

В.П. Козин: «Необходимо донести до американского руководства, что Россия выступает против нанесения Пентагоном новых ракетных ударов по объектам ИГИЛ в Афганистане из-за неизбежности появления новых жертв среди мирных афганских граждан в результате побочных жертв среди них. Движение Талибан сможет самостоятельно найти и обезвредить сообщников этих «взрывников».

Эфир от 27 августа 2021г.

Источник: радио Sputnik

 

 

 

В. Козин: Американцы не дадут Порошенко использовать на выборах силовые методы

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе "Открытый эфир" на телеканале "Звезда".

7 шагов для победы Порошенко - война или операция под кодовым названием «Ликвидация»? Может ли он ради сохранения власти пойти на физическое устранение конкурента? Многие эксперты убеждены - это единственный шанс для украинского лидера. Расследование Дмитрия Родионова.

СБУ объявило охоту на журналиста Владимира Скачко. Он разоблачил преступную схему Порошенко. Несколько лет президент Украины воровал народный уголь, а вырученные деньги использовал для фальсификации на выборах. Что грозит украинскому репортеру за обнародование шокирующих фактов?

Горловка в огне. ВСУ ведут прицельный огонь по домам мирных жителей. Минометные снаряды попали прямо на детскую площадку. Команда репортеров Семена Пегова нашла доказательства того, что за каждый выстрел бойцы ВСУ получают премию. Сколько по версии Киева стоит жизнь жителя Донбасса? Прямое включение с линии разграничения.

Эфир от 2 апреля 2019г.

В. Козин: Американцы по сей день не дали КНДР никаких гарантий военной безопасности

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО о ханойской встрече Ына и Трампа.

О программе двухдневных мероприятий почти ничего не сообщается. Ким Чен Ын ждет от Дональда Трампа подписания мирного договора и гарантий. Тот, в свою очередь, надеется на «мудрое решение» товарища Кима полностью ликвидировать свой ядерный потенциал.

Эфир от 26 февраля 2019г.

Источник: Телеканал МИР24

В. Козин: Американцы создают в Сирии военно-террористический хаос

Боевики ИГ атаковали сирийские войска из зоны "военной миссии США". Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik высказал мнение, что американцы не собираются отказываться от поддержки террористов в Сирии.

Боевики "Исламского государства"* совершили серию атак на сирийские войска из зоны расположения "военной миссии США", заявил официальный представитель Минобороны Игорь Конашенков.

По его словам, 28 сентября отряд боевиков попытался захватить господствующие высоты вокруг города Эль-Карьятейн. При этом террористы обошли скрытые посты правительственных сил, владея их точными координатами. Их можно было получить лишь благодаря воздушной разведке, данные которой были "заботливо переданы" для диверсий.

"Перечисленные атаки террористов объединяет только одно – все они осуществлялись из 50-километровой зоны вокруг населенного пункта Эт-Танф на сирийско-иорданской границе. Той самой, где расположена "военная миссия США" и куда в буквальном смысле даже на пушечный выстрел американцы не подпускали подразделения сирийских войск, преследующих террористов", — добавил Конашенков.

Сирийской армии пришлось приложить серьезные усилия, чтобы нейтрализовать мобильные группы боевиков на трассе Пальмира — Дейр-Эз-Зор и освободить захваченные террористами населенные пункты.

"Если американская сторона рассматривает такие операции, как непредвиденные "случайности", то российские ВКС в Сирии готовы приступить к полному уничтожению всех подобных "случайностей" в подконтрольной им зоне", — заключил представитель Минобороны.

Он еще раз подчеркнул, что главным препятствием для разгрома террористов в Сирии служит не их боеспособность, а поддержка и заигрывание с ними США.

В эфире радио Sputnik профессор Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин высказал мнение, что американцы не собираются отказываться от поддержки террористов в Сирии.

"Террористические группировки в Сирии оказывают очень сильное сопротивление. Но без финансовой, разведывательной, военной, советнической помощи они бы не смогли существовать столь долго – уже более пяти лет после начала этой войны. Американцы ставят целью воссоздать и укрепить международный террористический "интернационал", но не на своей территории, а на территориях, которые находятся в непосредственной близости к границам РФ. Кроме того, они хотят ликвидировать законный режим Башара Асада, который их не устраивает. Поэтому создают военно-террористический хаос для того, чтобы держать в напряжении другие государства, а заодно поставлять оружие и боевую технику своим союзникам, которые якобы тоже борются из последних сил с терроризмом. То есть цели у США долгоиграющие и далеко идущие. Американцы не будут бороться с террористическими организациями, которые они создали, взрастили и которым по-прежнему оказывают всяческое содействие", —  сказал Владимир Козин.

Источник: РИА Новости

 

В. Козин: Анкара ответила на неприятные слова и обидные жесты НАТО

Главный советник президента Турции Ялчын Топчу призвал парламент пересмотреть вопрос о членстве страны в НАТО. Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik высказал мнение о том, что именно в действиях НАТО больше всего раздражает турок.

Турция должна пересмотреть вопрос о своем членстве в НАТО, так как альянс ведет враждебную политику по отношению к Анкаре, заявил главный советник президента Турции Ялчын Топчу.

Ранее президент Турции Тайип Эрдоган заявил, что организаторы учений НАТО Trident Javelin, которые прошли 8-17 ноября в Норвегии, поставили стенд с портретами "врагов", на одном из них был изображен основатель Турецкой республики Мустафа Кемаль Ататюрк, к "врагам" был также причислен нынешний турецкий лидер. По словам Эрдогана, глава генштаба Турции сообщил ему о случившемся и сказал, что принял решение об отзыве 40 турецких военных, участвовавших в учениях НАТО. Руководство Турции поддержало это решение.

Извинения за нанесенные Турции оскорбления во время учений в Норвегии дважды принес генсек НАТО Йенс Столтенберг, а глава Мминобороны Норвегии Франк Бакке-Йенсен выразил сожаление, однако Эрдоган заявил, что считает это недостаточным.

"Пришло время пересмотреть наше членство в НАТО. Организация, которая всячески проявляет свое враждебное отношение к своему члену, нам не нужна. Вопрос о нашем присутствии в этой организации должен быть срочно рассмотрен в парламенте Турции", – цитирует Ялчына Топчу телеканал Haberturk.

Советник Эрдогана добавил, что НАТО является не только военным альянсом, но и "новой формой колониализма, политической и экономической зависимости" и выразил надежду, что турецкая нация сумеет сорвать с себя "колониальную рубашку, которую пытается надеть на нее НАТО".

Профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik отметил, что негодование руководства Турции по поводу оскорбительных, по мнению Анкары, действий НАТО совершенно понятно.

"В последнее время со стороны НАТО было сделано много крайне негативных и неприятных для Анкары заявлений, действий, которые заставили, видимо, турецкое руководство всерьез задуматься. То начинают диктовать, что турки не имеет права закупать у других стран оборонительные виды вооружений, которые ей нужны для обеспечения национальной безопасности, то НАТО заявляет, что Турция может быть лишена различных технологических поставок вооружений. Делаются разные обидные жесты во время учений, в которых принимают участие турецкие вооруженные силы, в адрес турецкого руководства делались заявления, которые не могут быть спокойно восприняты, и я прекрасно понимаю негодование руководства Турции", – сказал Владимир Козин.   

По его словам, многое в действиях НАТО и прежде раздражало турецкое общество.

"Во-первых, НАТО навязало Турции размещение американского тактического ядерного оружия, которое находится на базе ВВС Турции "Инджирлик". Во-вторых, американцы навязали Турции радиолокационные станции системы ПРО. Все эти обстоятельства раздражают турецкое общество, которое не хочет быть заложником в этой ракетно-ядерной и противоракетной возне", – считает Владимир Козин.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: Байден может привести мир к ядерной катастрофе

 

Эксперт  рассказал о сумасшедших планах Польши по Львову и Калининграду

Президент США Джо Байден отказался от своих слов о возможной отправке американских военных на Украину, которые он произнес во время визита в Польшу. Почему президент ядерной державы говорит так много лишнего и чем это может грозить миру? Готовы ли американцы поддержать Польшу, желания которой все больше растут, и как на это ответит Россия? Почему необходимо скорее закрыть "котел" в Донбассе? Обо всем этом в интервью "Sputnik на русском" рассказал член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин.

Источник: "Sputnik на русском"

В. Козин: Безъядерный мир может и должен быть создан к 2045 году

Выступление ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козина на международной конференции “Давайте освободимся от вируса войны” (“Let us free ourselves from the virus of war”).

Дистанционное мероприятие, посвященное 75-летию окончанию войны в Европе и организованное миротворческими организациями западных стран, состоялось 25 апреля 2020г.

 

 

 

Материал опубликован  в рамках спецпроекта ЦВПИ МГИМО 

В. Козин: Блок НАТО становится непредсказуемым

 

Генсек НАТО Йенс Столтенберг заявил, что блок адаптирует свою структуру, в том числе, из-за ситуации вокруг Украины. Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik отметил, что подобные объяснения носят откровенно надуманный характер.

Столтенберг сообщил журналистам, что министры обороны стран-членов НАТО на заседании в среду согласуют в общих чертах создание новых командований. Одно из них займется защитой в Атлантике морских путей, которые связывают Северную Америку и Европу, а второе – перемещением контингента в Европе.

По словам генсека организации, при обсуждении общих вызовов безопасности за ужином, а также во время дискуссии об адаптации НАТО министры затронут вопрос Украины.

"Потому что одна из главных причин, по которым НАТО адаптируется, увеличивая готовность наших сил, организуя передовое присутствие в восточной части альянса, а также адаптирует командную структуру НАТО, – присоединение Крыма (к России – ред.) и продолжение дестабилизации Украины", – заявил Столтенберг.

Крым вновь стал российским регионом после проведенного там в марте 2014 года референдума, на котором 96,77% избирателей республики Крым и 95,6% жителей Севастополя высказались за вхождение в состав России. Крымские власти провели референдум после госпереворота на Украине в феврале 2014 года.

Объяснения, которые дает руководство НАТО наращиванию военной активности блока, носят откровенно надуманный характер, отметил в эфире радио Sputnik профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин.

"Украинский кризис – лишь оправдание. Натовцы все время оправдываются, ищут какие-то дутые предлоги. Раньше ссылались на необходимость развертывания противоракетной системы в Польше или в Румынии, мотивируя это то северокорейской ракетной ядерной угрозой, то иранской ракетной ядерной угрозой, теперь начинают еще какие-то страшилки придумывать. Но если они беспокоятся о безопасности Европы, то зачем направлять в европейское воздушное пространство тяжелые стратегические бомбардировщики, носители ядерного оружия всех трех видов, которые сейчас имеются на вооружении Соединенных Штатов? НАТО надо выбивать деньги на увеличение своих расходов, американцы хотят немного сбавить свою долю за счет компенсации ее из бюджетов других государств-членов альянса. Из 29 государств только пять выполняют рубеж (военных расходов) в 2% от ВВП. Но решение принято, Трамп выкрутил руки уже практически всем, с разной степенью, с разными темпами пополнения своей доли. Теперь говорят, что нужно выйти на 3% по военным расходам от ВВП. Идет милитаризация безо всяких на то оснований. Причины придумываются – кому что в голову взбредет", – считает Владимир Козин.

По его словам, НАТО лукавит, подавая происходящие внутри блока "транформацию" и "адаптацию" как реакцию на якобы угрожающие действия России.

"Слово "адаптируется" подразумевает, очевидно, что НАТО становится "голубем мира". Но объективно это означает наращивание военных приготовлений у российских и белорусских границ. Военная активность блока НАТО в поясе, прилегающем к белорусской и российской территории, за последние несколько лет инициативно увеличилась в пять раз, в том числе разведывательная деятельность – в десять раз, военно-морская – в четыре раза, продолжается противоракетное наращивание, усиление корабельных группировок вокруг России и наших друзей и союзников. Трансформация НАТО происходит, но в совершенно другом контексте, нежели тот, который пытается обозначить высшее руководство Североатлантического блока. Этот блок становится непредсказуемым в плане военных приготовлений. Он наращивает вооруженные силы и наращивает военную активность в гораздо больших объемах, чем требуется в обычных концепциях обороны", – отметил эксперт.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: Будущее Афганистана должно строится только руками самих афганцев

Владимир Козин дал интервью для ДНД

ДНД-28 февраля 2018
Д-р Владимир Козин ,который является ведущим экспертом Центра военно-политических исследований в Московском государственном институте международных отношений ДНД России ответил на вопросы ДНД.
 
- Что вы думаете о роли Пакистана в борьбе с терроризмом? Считаете ли вы, что мир придёт в Афганистан?
 
-Чтобы ответить на ваши два вопроса, я начну наверное с конца . И в своём выступлении на состоявшемся семинаре 27 февраля, я сказал, что Пакистан заслуживает особой благодарности в борьбе с терроризмом по сколько, по тем данным, которыми располагаю я, благодаря усилиям Пакистана в этой борьбе, количество террористов в вашей стране уменьшилось на две трети, примерно 60 %- это очень хороший признак. И Москва, очень ценит участие Пакистана в антитеррористической борьбе. В этом году, насколько мне известно, мы проведем российские и пакистанские коллеги, специальные учения по противодействию терроризму. Как известно, это зло которое не знает территориальных границ и в вашей стране созданы специальные условия по борьбе с терроризмом. Пакистан к сожалению, потерял много хороших людей, абсолютно невиновных ни в чем, среди них и пожилые люди и дети. Массовые взрывы на базарах и людных местах, они вызывают всеобщее осуждение и в нашей стране, в том числе. Поэтому мы готовы сотрудничать с Пакистаном в широкой борьбе с терроризмом по возможности обмениваться соответствующей информацией, что бы бороться з терроризмом в наших странах прежде всего, и бороться с терроризмом политическими , дипломатическими средствами на международной арене на различных форумах , на заседаниях организации ООН поднимать этот вопрос и критиковать те государства , которые к сожалению до сих пор финансируют терроризм ,снабжают террористические группировки оружием, боеприпасами , деньгами ,горюче смазочными материалами , даже химическим оружием. Против этого зла, нам нужно бороться вместе.
  
Я думаю будущее Афганистана должно строится только руками самих афганцев. Ми помним с далекой и глубокой истории, как афганцы одержали победы в трех войнах с британскими завоевателями. Поэтому ни одно государство не должно вмешиваться во внутренние дела Афганистана. Афганистан исторически играл большую роль в проведении политики активного нейтралитета, входил в движение неприсоединившихся стран, не примыкал ни к каким блокам и союзам. Я думаю, что афганский народ, трудолюбивый, очень гостеприимный, очень радушный, очень грамотный, все-таки примет решение, что бы иностранные войска навсегда покинули Афганистан. Это касается, прежде всего США и их союзников по НАТО или других стран-партнеров США, которые не входят в этот трансатлантический альянс. Что касается экономической помощи Афганистану, я скажу прямо, пока там находятся американские и натовские войска, оказывать эффективную и полезную помощь Афганистану в экономической сфере, в образовании, здравоохранении будет очень трудно. Сегодня на семинаре, я видел схему, когда одна из выступавших, показала, что пути экономических контактов и сотрудничества пройдут через Афганистан и дальше на юг к Индийскому океану, но через Афганистан это невозможно.
 
- Каковы основные моменты внешней политики России в отношении Пакистана?
 
-В нашей стране существует широкий национальный консенсус, который направлен на развитие всесторонних отношений с исламской республикой Пакистан. Все наши партии, которые представлены в парламенте в верхней и нижней палате, они тоже так считают. У нас нет ни каких противоречий, ни каких проблем: ни экономических, ни политических. Мы, РФ готовы развивать наши отношения широко, основательно и углубленно.
 
Справка:Д-р Владимир Козин является ведущим экспертом Центра военно-политических исследований в Московском государственном институте международных отношений МИД России.

В. Козин: В Арктике нельзя разделять геополитические, стратегические и энергетические интересы

Арктика вызывает все больший интерес со стороны России и США. Стратегическое положение и наличие ценных ресурсов превращают регион в арену для соперничества крупнейших мировых держав, отмечает «Китайская военная сеть» — единственный официальный интернет-ресурс Народной освободительной армии Китая.

Арктика обладает огромными запасами природного газа и нефти. Организации и исследовательские группы со всего мира дают разные оценки по объему «черного золота» в регионе. Так, глобальная исследовательская группа по энергетике и добыче полезных ископаемых Wood Mackenzie насчитала 233 миллиардов баррелей нефти.

Природного газа в Арктике еще больше. По мнению ученых из геологических служб США и Дании, объем газа составляет около 1550 триллионов кубометров. Этого количества хватит, чтобы снабжать голубым топливом весь мир в течение 14 лет.

«В будущем она (Арктика – прим. ред.) может стать основным центром смягчения последствий глобального кризиса, вызванного нехваткой ресурсов», — отмечают аналитики.

Нельзя забывать и о стратегическом положении региона. Военный контроль над расположенной между тремя материками Арктикой дает ключ ко всему Северному полушарию. Если в районе Северного полюса установить вооружение с высоким радиусом действия, то за короткое время оно сможет поразить любую цель в странах Северного полушария, убеждены авторы из Поднебесной.

Еще одно преимущество Арктики — Северный морской путь, кратчайший морской маршрут между Восточной Азией и Европой. В области судоходства Россия опережает всех благодаря атомным ледоколам, которые могут сопровождать торговые суда. Сейчас в мире насчитывается всего 10 таких кораблей, и все они построены в СССР и России. В распоряжении РФ находятся шесть атомных ледоколов, такого количества не имеет ни одна страна в мире.

В 2009 году США задокументировали свои претензии на Арктику. Президент Барак Обама принял директиву национальной безопасности № 66. Как следует из ее названия, США связывают с регионом вопросы национальной безопасности.

Отстаивать свои интересы Вашингтон готов решительно, защищая стратегические морские пути с помощью ПРО, систем дальнего вооружения, авиации и флота. В документе перечислены и мирные намерения по защите арктической природы, а также стремление сотрудничать, в частности, с Россией.

Ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин считает, что в вопросе контроля над Арктикой нельзя разделять геополитические, стратегические и энергетические интересы. Особенно стоит обратить внимание на действия НАТО, считает эксперт.

«Блок НАТО и, особенно Соединенные Штаты, активно используют арктический регион, как зону для наращивания своей военной деятельности. И деятельность эта непростая, не просто пушки и пулеметы. Это стратегические ударные ракетоносцы с ядерным оружием на борту и ударные подводные лодки, которые тоже имеют ядерное оружие на борту. <…> Нефть и газ еще долго будут одними из основных источников энергоресурсов, а стратегические приготовления США и НАТО каждый год только наращиваются и приобретают в отношении России все более агрессивный характер», — сообщил Козин.

В 2014 году Россия впервые в мире начала добычу нефти с шельфового месторождения в Арктике. В 2017 году глава правительства Дмитрий Медведев заявил, что страна потратит на освоение холодного региона более 160 миллиардов рублей до 2025 года. По информации исследователей, 70% природного газа в Арктике находятся на подконтрольной России территории.

Автор: Роман Самойлов, Источник: ИА «Политика сегодня»

 

В. Козин: В НАТО утвердили сценарий возможной ядерной войны

Почему американцы готовы первыми нажать красную кнопку? И как альянс готовится заполонить ракетами всю Европу? Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО Владимир Козин только что вернулся из Гааги, где пообщался с представителями Североатлантического блока. О том, что в Старом Свете думают о 14 американских сценариях третьей мировой в программе «Открытый эфир» на канале «Звезда».

Эфир от 2 декабря 2019 г.

В. Козин: В НАТО хотят нас разорвать, уничтожить - но не знают как

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе "Открытый эфир" на телеканале "Звезда".

Подаяние для ВСУ. Украинская диаспора в США собирает пожертвования в церквях и отправляет их бойцам АТО. И молится за здоровье тех, кто каждый день расстреливает своих же граждан в Донбассе. Сколько Киев ежедневно получает из-за океана - эксклюзивный материал режиссера из Эстонии Олега Беседина.

Специальный репортаж с юго-востока Украины. Как в Саханке ученики каждый день ходят в школу под пулями ВСУ. Подробности от корреспондента Семена Пегова. Он только что вернулся из Донбасса, где попал под обстрел украинской армии.

Обратная сторона юбилея НАТО. Пафосные речи военачальников о величии Альянса и ни слова о настоящих преступлениях, которые унесли жизни сотен тысяч человек по всему миру. Ради так называемого продвижения свободы и демократии натовские военные уничтожали мирные города запрещенным оружием: фосфором, напалмом, ипритом и другими ядовитыми веществами. Как и зачем ретушируется правда - разбирался военный журналист Виктор Литовкин.

Эфир от 4 апреля 2019г.

В. Козин: В мире существует 32 страны, у которых есть технические возможности разрабатывать РСМД

Ядерный раритет: Россия повременит с развертыванием своих РСМД лишь при условии, что подобные американские ракеты не появятся в Европе

Москва создает ракеты средней дальности, однако не начнет их развертывание до тех пор, пока аналогичные американские устройства не появятся в Европе. Об этом на Московской конференции по нераспространению – 2019 «Известиям» заявил замглавы МИД РФ Сергей Рябков. Дипломат обратил внимание: сейчас Вашингтон разрабатывает не только ракеты, «но и разного рода экзотические системы», способные обладать параметрами, запрещенными Договором о ракетах средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД), который прекратил свое существование в 2019 году. Опрошенные «Известиями» эксперты пришли к выводу, что гонка в создании новых систем этого класса вооружений неизбежна — только теперь она будет включать большее количество стран.

Новые «экзотические» системы

В Москве по-прежнему надеются, что размещения американских ракет вблизи российских границ не произойдет, заявил Сергей Рябков. При этом дипломат отметил: Вашингтон пока ограничился развитием таких систем.

— США начали разработку, но не приступили к развертыванию. При этом они развивают не только ракеты, но и разного рода экзотические системы, которые, как они заявляют, могут обладать дальностью, в свое время запрещенной на тот момент действовавшим договором (о РСМД. — «Известия»), — сказал «Известиям» дипломат. — Мы же занимаемся теперь созданием ракет средней дальности, но развертывать их не будем до тех пор, пока это (размещение американских систем в Европе. — «Известия») не произойдет. Надеемся, что этого не случится.

Глава российского МИДа Сергей Лавров ранее уже анонсировал возможное появление в РФ подобного вида вооружения. Но тут же подчеркивал, что «его не будут размещать ни в одном регионе мира». Правда, ситуация может измениться, «если подобные системы американского производства появятся в той или иной части планеты».

На запрос «Известий», планируют ли Соединенные Штаты транспортировать соответствующие вооружения в Европу, Госдепартамент США оперативный комментарий не предоставил. Получить ответ на вопрос, готовы ли члены НАТО разместить на своей территории американские системы, от представителей альянса также не удалось.

После того как 2 августа 2019 года Договор о РСМД окончательно прекратил свое существование, стало известно, что Россия предложила странам НАТО ввести мораторий на размещение ракет средней и меньшей дальности. Руководство альянса, проанализировав российскую инициативу, спустя полтора месяца эту идею отвергло. По словам представителя организации Оаны Лунгеску, РФ уже развернула SSC-8 (классификация НАТО для ракеты 9М729, которая, с точки зрения альянса, нарушает положения Договора. — «Известия»), а потому, до тех пор пока эта система не будет уничтожена, мораторий смысла не имеет.

Заявления о том, что дальность российской ракеты превышает допустимые 500 км, в МИД РФ в очередной раз опровергли. Как сказал в начале ноября 2019 года Сергей Лавров, эти обвинения выдвигаются «на основе голословных утверждений» без предъявления каких-либо убедительных доказательств.

— Президент Путин в личных посланиях к лидерам государств НАТО и стран Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона призвал присоединиться к мораторию на развертывание РСМД наземного базирования, четкого ответа со стороны Североатлантического альянса не последовало. Более того, нам дают понять, что НАТО на это не пойдет, — сказал позже глава МИД РФ, выступая 8 ноября на Московской конференции по нераспространению – 2019.

Гонка началась?

Многолетний спор России и США по вопросу РСМД привел к тому, что в 2018 году Вашингтон заявил об одностороннем выходе из договора по этому классу вооружений. Штаты обосновали свое решение тем, что Москва нарушила соглашение, проведя в 2016 году на полигоне Капустный Яр испытание крылатых ракет наземного базирования «Новатор 9М729». По заявлениям Вашингтона, дальность этой ракеты превышает обозначенные в договоре 500 км.

Россия, в свою очередь, уже не первый год высказывает озабоченность на тему того, что США разрабатывают новые системы, которые по своим параметрам укладываются в рамки почившего ДРСМД. Претензии Москвы касаются трех направлений: испытание систем противоракетной обороны (ПРО) по ракетам-мишеням средней дальности, характеристики которых совпадают с запрещенными договором устройствами; использование беспилотных летательных аппаратов с оружием на борту, аналоги которых также запрещены соглашением; наличие наземных систем ПРО Aegis Ashore, способных запускать запрещенные крылатые ракеты Tomahawk.

Российские эксперты сходятся во мнении, что сейчас заключить новые договоренности по тематике РСМД практически нереально. Когда договор еще существовал, США настаивали на подключении к этому формату Китая. Однако Пекин категорически отринул это предложение. По словам члена-корреспондента Академии военных наук РФ Владимира Козина, на данный момент в мире существует 32 страны, у которых есть технические возможности разрабатывать ракеты этого класса. Крах двусторонних российско-американских договоренностей спровоцировал новую гонку вооружений, причем с большим числом участников, которую в ближайшие годы остановить будет крайне сложно, подытожил в беседе с «Известиями» эксперт.

Автор: Екатерина Постникова, Источник: “Известия”

 

 

В. Козин: В свете нынешнего курса администрации США это ожидаемо и неизбежно

Приостановка нашим государством выполнения ДРСМД – единственно верное решение.

4 марта Президент РФ Владимир Путин подписал указ о том, что Россия приостанавливает выполнение Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД), заключённого между СССР и Соединёнными Штатами в 1987 году. В беседе с «Красной звездой» ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России Владимир Козин назвал это решение ожидаемым и неизбежным в свете нынешнего курса администрации США.

Не секрет, что Соединённые Штаты с приходом к власти Дональда Трампа взяли курс на слом Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности. При этом Вашингтон открыто нарушал положения ДРСМД, в частности, во время тестирования систем противоракетной обороны.

«В ходе испытаний систем ПРО США с 2001-го американская сторона нарушила этот договор по испытаниям 117 раз», – указал Владимир Козин. По его словам, для таких испытаний использовались ракеты средней и меньшей дальности в качестве ракет-мишеней. Был даже случай, когда перехватывали цель из пяти ракет – и баллистических, и крылатых, средней и меньшей дальности, которые запрещены этим договором.

Кроме того, США ещё пять лет назад начали испытательные пуски с земли авиационной крылатой ракеты AGM-158В с дальностью действия тысяча километров. А в декабре позапрошлого года Трамп подписал законопроект об обороне, который в числе прочих предусматривает выделение 25 млн долларов на программу по разработке новой крылатой ракеты именно такого типа, который подпадает под действие ДРСМД. Подобные боеприпасы, по задумке разработчиков, позволят уничтожать важные гражданские и военные объекты в более короткие сроки, чем не охваченные договором крылатые ракеты морского базирования.

Эти данные, подчеркнул Владимир Козин, взяты не из каких-либо секретных источников, а из вполне официальных. В частности, из отчётов управления по противоракетной обороне США, в которых подробно рассказывалось обо всех проводимых испытаниях и средствах, задействованных в них. Кроме того, данные публикуются и в справочных материалах научно-исследовательского отдела конгресса США.

Стоит отметить, что, несмотря на все зафиксированные нарушения со стороны Вашингтона, Москва до последнего пыталась сохранить договор и неоднократно выступала с инициативами провести предметные переговоры по поводу взаимных претензий по договору. Так, в декабре прошлого года министр обороны РФ генерал армии Сергей Шойгу обратился с письмом к занимавшему тогда пост главы Пентагона Джеймсу Мэттису, в котором предлагал обсудить разногласия по соглашению. Однако американская сторона не дала никакого ответа.

Россия принимала и другие меры, направленные на разъяснение своей позиции относительно обвинений о развёртывании ракет средней и меньшей дальности. Американским партнёрам предлагалось дать объяснения по поводу нарушений договора с их стороны. Однако в ответ звучали лишь ультиматумы. «Они требовали только уничтожить ракету 9М729, которая вообще никак не попадает под ДРСМД, поскольку её максимальная дальность составляет 480 км, а ракеты малой дальности начинаются с 500. Несмотря на предоставленные Россией доказательства об ошибочности предъявленных Вашингтоном ультиматумов, Штаты занимались по сути дела психологическим давлением на нашу страну, требуя от нас несправедливых и неправильных действий», – заявил Владимир Козин.

При этом он напомнил, что Министерство обороны РФ провело специальный брифинг для иностранных военных атташе и в ходе него продемонстрировало ракету 9М729, которая, по словам американцев, якобы нарушает ДРСМД. На фактах было доказано, что никакого нарушения нет. Однако представители США и других государств НАТО на этот брифинг не пришли, так как в Вашингтоне решение о выходе из ДРСМД было уже принято, и продиктовано оно было совсем другими смыслами.

«Поэтому президентский указ – это шаг правильный, зеркальный, вынужденный из-за провокационных действий США, а также из-за многочисленных комбинированных нарушений ими ДРСМД», – подчеркнул российский эксперт.

Следует отметить, что решение России о приостановке выполнения ДРСМД уже получило большой резонанс в мире. В том, что над одной из основ современной системы международной безопасности, которым является это соглашение, нависла серьёзная угроза, виновны, как отмечают многие зарубежные, в том числе и американские, обозреватели, Соединённые Штаты. Такого же мнения придерживаются и широкие круги западной общественности.

Вот некоторые из откликов в социальных сетях: «Мы сами никогда не выполняли условия ДРСМД, который гласит «доверяй, но проверяй». «Русский медведь просыпается, мало не покажется». «А как же быть с «Иджис», которые Обама в Европу под ПРО засунул?..» А комментатор из Германии удивился, почему все только и интересуются выходом России и США из ДРСМД, в то время как Франция, Великобритания и некоторые другие страны – члены ООН тоже являются ядерными державами и «на месте всё время не стояли».

Отреагировали на указ Президента России и официальные американские власти. Как заявил представитель государственного департамента, США готовы к переговорам с Россией по контролю над вооружениями, но с определёнными условиями – условиями, которые, как представляется, ущемляют интересы безопасности России.

Комментируя это заявление госдепа, Владимир Козин отметил, что оно в очередной раз свидетельствует о нежелании Вашингтона возвращаться к безусловному выполнению ДРСМД. «Они выдвигают разного рода условия, которые являются для РФ неприемлемыми», – считает российский эксперт.

Автор: Владимир Молчанов,  Источник: «Красная звезда»

В. Козин: Вашингтон ломает всю систему контроля над вооружениями

 

И это является серьезным препятствием на пути достижения договоренности между Россией и США.

Выступление ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе "Право голоса" на канале ТВЦ.

Эфир от 7 мая 2019г.

В. Козин: Великобритания колонизирует страны Балтии

Страны Балтии де-факто стали колониями в военно-политическом, торгово-экономическом и идеологическом плане после вступления в НАТО

Великобритания планирует усилить военное присутствие в странах Балтии, заявила глава британского Минобороны Пенни Мордонт во время встречи представителей стран — участниц экспедиционного корпуса НАТО в Клайпеде. Необходимость в дополнительной защите восточных рубежей Европы якобы продиктована неослабевающей "российской угрозой".

Таким образом,  Великобритания, как в старые добрые времена, превращает страны Балтии в свои колонии, рассказал член Научного совета Национального института исследований глобальной безопасности, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России Владимир Петрович Козин Sputnik Латвия.

>>аудиофайл<<

Колонизация с помощью военных сил — старинная политика Великобритании, говорит Козин. Страны Балтии де-факто стали колониями в военно-политическом, торгово-экономическом и идеологическом плане после вступления в НАТО. К примеру, военные аэродромы в трех странах используются для базирования авиации "двойного назначения" НАТО, иными словами — ядерного оружия.

Источник: Sputnik Латвия

 

 

В. Козин: Власти Литвы потратили на ненужные Javelin деньги налогоплательщиков

В республике не понимают, куда лучше тратить государственные деньги, считает профессор военных наук Владимир Козин

Министр обороны Литвы Раймундас Кароблис заявил, что американская ПРО поможет республике усилить "сдерживающий эффект".

В интервью Sputnik Литва профессор Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин рассказал, что траты Литвы на Javelin абсолютно напрасны.

"Жалко мне налогоплательщиков уважаемой соседки по Калининградской области. Это траты абсолютно напрасные. Особенно учитывая, что лягут они однозначно на плечи и кошельки налогоплательщиков. Лучше бы подумали о том, как укрепить европейскую безопасность, которая и так пришла в упадок после окончательного выхода США из Договора РСМД (Договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности. — Sputnik), что произойдет ориентировочно в августе этого года, — она резко, радикально ухудшится, эта европейская обстановка. Такая закупка не стоит и выеденного яйца, но тем не менее люди расшвыривают деньги направо и налево, не понимают, куда их лучше тратить", — сказал профессор.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: Власти Литвы приучают жителей к мысли о неизбежности войны

Министерство обороны Литвы не будет строить военный полигон в западной части страны. Оценка зарезервированных для этих целей территорий показала, что из-за природных особенностей на них нельзя проводить военные учения.

Однако от самой идеи создания еще одного полигона республика не отказывается. В ближайшее время будет объявлен тендер на технико-экономическое обоснование для определения потенциальных территорий.

Минобороны хотело построить новый военный полигон именно на западе страны. В ведомстве выбор места связывали с "усиливающимся военным присутствием российских войск в Калининграде".

В интервью Sputnik Литва член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин отметил, что не видит смысла строить столько полигонов в Литве, поскольку непонятно, с какой целью местом выбран запад страны.

"К сожалению, милитаризм во всех трех странах Балтии развивается с большой скоростью и по различным направлениям. Самое печальное, что они свое население приучают к неизбежности разного рода военных столкновений: начало боевых действий, захват чужих территорий, предоставление территории и воздушного пространства под пролеты американской тяжелой стратегической авиации, которая наверняка имеет на борту ядерное оружие, которое невозможно проверить", – сказал он.

Источник: радио Sputnik

В. Козин: Военная авиация просто так не летает

Российский Су-30 над Черным морем осуществил перехват самолета ВМС США, заявили в Пентагоне. Ситуацию с перехватами самолетов НАТО у границ России в эфире радио Sputnik прокомментировал военный эксперт Владимир Козин.

Российский истребитель Су-30 "небезопасно" перехватил американский противолодочный самолет P-8A Poseidon в небе над Черным морем в субботу, сообщил во вторник CNN со ссылкой на заявление официального представителя Пентагона Мишель Балданза.

"Американский самолет работал в международном воздушном пространстве и не сделал ничего, чтобы спровоцировать такие действия российской стороны", – сказала она телеканалу, назвав такие действия "небезопасными".

Российская сторона пока не прокомментировала это заявление.

Boeing P-8 Poseidon – состоящий на вооружении ВМС США патрульный противолодочный самолет, предназначенный для обнаружения и уничтожения подводных лодок противника, а также для участия в противокорабельных и спасательных операциях.

ВКС России регулярно осуществляют сопровождение и перехват самолетов стран НАТО у границ России. Минобороны публикует еженедельные отчеты, в которых указывает статистику по обнаруженным у государственной границы иностранным самолетам.

Комментируя случаи перехватов, генсек НАТО Йенс Столтенберг признавал, что они, как правило, выполняются профессионально и безопасно и являются обычной практикой.

Профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik отметил, что США в последние годы ведут активную разведывательную деятельность у границ России.

"По данным наших компетентных военных органов, разведывательная деятельность США около наших рубежей увеличилась в последние годы в 10 раз. Никаких опасных перехватов не было и не будет: летчики – люди ответственные, они понимают, что любой опасный перехват может закончиться плачевно для обеих сторон. Поэтому вместо того, чтобы поднимать этот шум, американские военные должны просто отказаться от провокационных полетов около нашей территории. Такие разведывательные самолеты могут интерпретироваться нашими военными как возможное приготовление к военным действиям. Потому что военная авиация просто так не летает. Это не гражданский беспилотник, который следит за дорожным движением или состоянием урожая. Раньше таких безобразий со стороны США не было, не было и перехватов. Так что нечего американцам пенять на свое неудачное лицо, коли оно не удалось", – сказал Владимир Козин.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: Военная угроза в мире значительно возросла, но отчаиваться не стоит

Государства классической «ядерной пятерки» отдают себе отчет, к чему может привести применение имеющего у них арсенала.

После спада экономического кризиса в мире может начаться масштабный военный конфликт. К такому выводу пришел известный публицист, телеведущий, политический консультант, участник и многократный победитель интеллектуальных телеигр Анатолий Вассерман.

По его мнению, мир сейчас переживает «Вторую великую депрессию», которая уже официально перешла на новый уровень.

Публицист напомнил, что на этой неделе Федеральная резервная система (ФРС) США в ответ на обвал рынка ценных бумаг сократила ключевую ставку до исторического минимума — от 0 до 0,25% в год. По сути, объяснил Вассерман, ФРС начала печатать деньги и бесплатно раздавать их банкирам и владельцам крупных корпораций, чтобы те смогли закрыть финансовые дыры задешево.

«Сверхдешевый доллар порождает общемировую инфляцию. Дальше — бедность всей планеты: на дешевых деньгах зарабатывают только богатые. Мы на собственном опыте знаем: пирамида рухнет рано или поздно, но обязательно. Не важно, что нажмет на спуск — разрушение ОПЕК или эпидемия. Револьвер уже приставлен к голове и пружина взведена!» — уверен Вассерман.

При этом он напомнил, что «Первую великую депрессию» остановила Вторая мировая война. Тогда бойня развязалась из-за капитала, который исчерпал возможности заработать и довел половину человечества до голода. Доходы были перераспределены и построена нынешняя финансовая система ценой десятков миллионов жизней.

 «Все по Марксу. За мировым кризисом следует мировой конфликт. И мы пока в самом начале этого пути. И совершаем те же ошибки! На бесчисленных экономических зомби уходят ресурсы, способные при здравом хозяйствовании принести немалую пользу», — считает Вассерман.

И действительно, экономическая ситуация в мире ухудшается практически с каждым часом. Из-за увеличения числа людей, инфицированных коронавирусом, некоторые государства готовы остановить промышленное производство, цены на нефть не выходят из зоны сильнейшей за последние полвека турбулентности, спрос на углеводороды падает, а единое мировое торгово-финансовое пространство трещит по швам.

Впрочем, член-корреспондент Российской Академии военных наук (РАВН) Владимир Козин не считает, что некое действие, однозначно провоцирующее мир на глобальный вооруженный конфликт уровня Второй мировой войны, обязательно произойдет в автоматическом режиме.

—  Во-первых, государства классической «ядерной пятерки» отдают себе отчет, к чему может привести применение имеющего у них ядерного арсенала. Во-вторых, и страны так называемой «ядерной четверки», то есть фактически обладающие ядерным оружием — Индия, Пакистан, Израиль и Северная Корея — прекрасно понимают, что, несмотря на накапливание и модернизацию ядерного оружия, его применение в каком бы то ни было виде может закончиться очень плачевно. За первым ударом сразу же последует второй и последующие «ответные» волны. Запущенная таким образом «ракетно-ядерная» цепная реакция закончится тотальным уничтожением.

— То есть опасения Анатолия Вассермана беспочвенны?

—  Не совсем. Прежде всего, нельзя сбрасывать со счетов, что возможности применения ядерного оружия США после принятия в 2018 году президентом Дональдом Трампом новой ядерной доктрины, резко возросли. В прежней доктрине, которой придерживался его предшественник Барак Обама, было 6 оснований, а в новой — уже 14. Тогда как в ядерной доктрине России таковых оснований по-прежнему остается только два.

Кроме того, нынешняя американская администрация в лице президента и правительства США вновь отказалась подтверждать формулировку Рональда Рейгана относительно применения ядерного оружия.

— Какую именно формулировку вы имеете в виду?

— Формулировку о том, что ядерная война не может быть развязана потому, что в ней не будет победителей. Хочу обратить особое внимание на то, что изначальное авторство этой максимы принадлежит такому же ставленнику Республиканской партии США, как и нынешний глава Америки Дональд Трамп. А уже потом ее дополнили и усилили аналогичные высказывания первого президента СССР Михаила Горбачева.

Россия, как мы знаем, по-прежнему верна этой формулировке, а вот американская сторона в ответ на сделанное в октябре 2019 года предложение переподтвердить ее еще раз в новых официальных документах сделать это почему-то напрочь отказалась. Администрация США категорически упирается. И это, например, лично у меня вызывает определенные подозрения в том, что ядерная война все же возможна. И ее нельзя «проспать».

Есть и еще ряд факторов, которые свидетельствуют об этом. Например, готовность Пентагона использовать ядерные боезаряды малой мощности, то есть от 5 килотонн и меньше, в различных ситуациях и по усмотрению Дональда Трампа. Или, скажем, наращивание средств доставки ядерных боезарядов в зонах «передового базирования», то есть в непосредственной близости от тех государств, которые не относятся к союзникам Соединенных Штатов. Об этом также говорит стратегическая установка об уничтожении МБР других государств еще «до их запуска». Напоминают об этом и военные учения США, которые начинаются с применением обычных видов вооружений, но заканчиваются с условным задействованием ядерных вооружений.

— Может быть, не все так безнадежно со стороны Америки? Ведь ограничил же Сенат полномочия Трампа по применению военной силы в Иране после убийства генерала Касема Сулеймани. Может быть, и в данной ситуации американская администрация проявит благоразумие?

— Позиция Трампа и позиция американского правительства в данном вопросе — это, в принципе, одно и то же. Что скажет Трамп, обладающий по Конституции США исключительными полномочиями, то и будет делать правительство США, все министры, государственные секретари и так далее. Ведь тех людей, которые не разделяют позицию президента, Трамп просто выгнал с работы. В числе уволенных оказались и министры обороны, и госсекретари, то есть по российским реалиям министры иностранных дел. А уж сколько при нем сменилось руководителей Совета национальной безопасности США!

— Кроме этого момента существуют ли еще какие-то нюансы, прямо или косвенно подтверждающие это подозрение?

— Второй негативный и конкретный признак серьезных военных приготовлений в ядерной сфере — проблема неприменения ядерного оружия в первом ударе. Это тема, правда, давнишняя, и в восьмидесятые годы прошлого века дебаты по ней начал Советский Союз. Тогда это не прошло. Но и сейчас именно американцы в новой «трамповской» ядерной стратегии категорически отказались принять концепцию неприменения ядерного оружия в первом ударе. Ничего хорошего со стороны США это миру не обещает.

Третий признак — отказ Вашингтона поддержать российско-китайский проект о неразмещении оружия в космосе в принципе и неразмещении его там первыми в частности.

Четвертый — наличие в ядерной доктрине США, как я уже говорил, положения об использовании ядерных боезарядов малой мощности от 5 килотонн и меньше. Американские подводные лодки уже переоснащаются под них с учетом этого обстоятельства, на очереди — трансформация ракет других классов.

Интересно, конечно, как будет вести себя американская делегация на саммите «ядерной пятерки», встрече государств — постоянных членов Совета безопасности ООН, которая может произойти в ходе очередной сессии Генассамблеи в сентябре 2020 года в Нью-Йорке. Но пока никакие признаки того, что США поведут себя там конструктивно и по-деловому не просматриваются.

Факты остаются фактами: к Договору о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД) они возвращаться не собираются, российский мораторий о неразвертывании новых ракет средней и меньшей дальности в тех районах, где их нет до сих пор, не поддерживают. Продлевать Договор СНВ-3 не желают, так как свою пролонгацию его на какой-то дополнительный срок жестко увязывают с участием в нем КНР, которая не проявляет практического интереса к этому, поскольку имеет гораздо меньше ядерных боезарядов, чем американская сторона.

До сих пор остаются нерешенными 13 проблем в сфере контроля над вооружениями между Москвой и Вашингтоном. Причем, такое положение сложилось по вине именно Вашингтона и по сей день нет никаких признаков того, что до означенной встречи будет, наконец-таки, разрулена проблема продления срока действия договора СНВ-3, действие которого заканчивается в феврале 2021 года.

И, конечно, не надо забывать, что американцы разорвали иранскую ядерную сделку, а сейчас продолжают открыто нарушать первые две статьи Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия, уже почти 70 лет подряд сохраняя в Европе свои тактические ядерные средства.

А ведь некоторые из них способны решать стратегические ядерные задачи, будучи установленными на тяжелые стратегические бомбардировщики. Кстати, тяжелая американская авиация стратегического назначения уже давным-давно освоила европейское воздушное пространство, в том числе и военные аэродромы государств Балтии. И даже поучаствовала в метании учебных авиабомб.

— Получается, в любом случае инициатором военного конфликта выступят США? Можно ли в этом случае предположить, какие блоки будут противостоять друг другу?

— США, конечно, главная скрипка в Североатлантическом союзе. Это главный дирижер НАТО, особенно в военно-политической сфере. Так что им создавать какие-то военные союзы смысла нет. Хотя в стратегии национальной безопасности Америки, утвержденной в декабре 2017 года при Трампе, не исключается возможность создания новых союзов с другими государствами.

Но пока, естественно, главный упор делается именно на укрепление НАТО: диверсификацию вооружений, размещение новых видов тяжелых вооружений практически по всему Земному шару, увеличение доли каждого участника НАТО в формировании военного бюджета блока уже на уровне 2% от ВВП страны к 2024 году, а после этой даты — даже на уровне 4% ВВП. О чем, собственно, Трамп и заявил на полях брюссельского саммита НАТО в 2018 году. Пока, правда, из 29 стран НАТО только девять государств вышли на заявленный двухпроцентный уровень, о чем свидетельствует новый ежегодный доклад генсека НАТО Столтенберга о деятельности этого военного блока в 2019 году. Но Трамп, думаю, остальных все же в этом вопросе додавит.

— Россия на кого может рассчитывать?

— России надо укреплять Договор о коллективной безопасности (ОДКБ), так как военная угроза в мире значительно возросла по сравнению с периодом разрядки и снижения международной напряженности в восьмидесятых годах прошлого века. И эта угроза имеет комбинированный характер. Речь идет уже не только об обычном и ядерном вооружении, но еще и о высокоточном гиперзвуковом оружии, глобальной системе противоракетной обороны и военном «освоении» космического пространства путем разработки ударных космических вооружений. Замечу: последние три компонента не имеют никаких международно-правовых ограничений. Это может вызвать новые виды «гонок вооружений».

— А может ли угроза военного конфликта если не исчезнуть, то как минимум пойти в обратную сторону?

— К тому, что на грядущем саммите «ядерной пятерки» в ходе Генассамблеи ООН в сентябре 2020 года удастся повернуть вспять как старые, так и новые «гонки вооружений», я отношусь с большим скепсисом. Если такая встреча закончится неудачей, то у сторонников решения проблем контроля над вооружениями, в особенности над ракетно-ядерными, останется только один путь: обратиться к мировому сообществу в целом и наглядно объяснить ему, что нынешняя цивилизация подошла к опасной черте. Такая ситуация представляется даже хуже, чем глобальные последствия нынешнего коварного коронавируса.

Автор: Андрей Захарченко, Источник: “Свободная пресса”

В. Козин: Военное присутствие США в странах Балтии будет только нарастать

Эстонский посол в Польше и Румынии Ээрик Мармей заявил на встрече с журналистами в Вашингтоне, что Эстония выступает за обеспечение регулярного ротационного военного присутствия США на территории всех трех прибалтийских государств.

В интервью Sputnik Латвия профессор Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин отметил, что балтийский регион и так имеет многочисленное вооружение различного назначения.

>>Аудио<<

"Ротация - это только отмашка натовцев и США. Потому что эта ротация по сути дела становится перманентным присутствием, то есть постоянным. Это не важно, что одни воинские соединения сменяют другие. Все равно в общем итоге, в общем балансе получается постоянное массированное военное присутствие. Я не ожидаю, что оно будет уменьшено", - сказал Козин.

По словам эксперта, решения, принимаемые на различных саммитах альянса ясно свидетельствуют о том, что присутствие в районе Балтики сил НАТО будет возрастать.

Источник: Sputnik Латвия

 

 

В. Козин: Военные игрища США и Украины "мутят воду" на европейском континенте

В МИД РФ считают опасной идеей намерения США и Украины провести военные учения Sea Breeze-2019 в северо-западной части Черного моря, заявил журналистам статс-секретарь – замглавы МИД РФ Григорий Карасин.

"Опасная идея – именно так мы будем к ней относиться. Это воспринимается нами как опасная идея", – сказал Карасин.

Ранее пресс-служба МО Украины сообщила, что учения Sea Breeze-2019 пройдут в северо-западной части Черного моря, в Николаевской, Херсонской и Одесской областях.

Профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik прокомментировал ситуацию.

"Все военные учения, которые проводились совместно США и Украиной, носили агрессивно-наступательный характер. В них отрабатывались именно наступательные операции, в том числе и те, которые ВСУ проводят против мирного населения Донбасса. Хочу сказать, что вторая причина проведения таких учений заключается в том, чтобы как можно быстрее обеспечить вхождение Украины в состав Североатлантического союза, что тоже является крайне негативным фактором, который самым отрицательным образом скажется на общеевропейской безопасности и стабильности. Любые военные игрища, которые проводятся между Вашингтоном и Киевом все эти годы, носят откровенно милитаристский, агрессивный характер и "мутят воду" на европейском континенте", – сказал Владимир Козин.

Международные военно-морские учения Sea Breeze в прошлом году проводились в Одесской и Николаевской областях, а также на морских полигонах северо-западной части Черного моря. В них принимали участие несколько тысяч военных из 19-ти стран. В учениях были задействованы корабли США, Украины, Турции и Болгарии. По данным ВМС Украины, в учениях в целом принимали участие более 2 тысяч военных, около 30 кораблей и судов. Отмечалось, что цель учений – проведение многонациональной морской операции по безопасности в кризисном регионе, военными во время учений управляли с американского корабля.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: Войны не будет, но обеспокоенность есть

 

Выступление ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козина о нарушениях США Договора о ликвидации РСМД в программе "Вечерний Commentерн" на "Радио 1". Эфир от 15 декабря 2017г.

В. Козин: Войскам США пора уйти из Европы и прихватить ядерное оружие и системы ПРО

Угроза странам Балтии нарисована на бумаге, на деле ее нет, НАТО продолжает обороняться от никого, заявил член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин

США не следует отправлять часть войск, которые выводятся из Германии, в страны Балтии, считает профессор государственной политики и организации Массачусетского технологического университета Харви Сапольски. Америка должна быть за спинами своих союзников, а не на передовой, указывает он. Для США невыгодно быть зажатыми между союзниками и Россией, тем самым играя роль своеобразной "минной растяжки", которая, сработав, приведет к втягиванию США в войну, считает он.

"Странам Балтии никто и ничто не угрожает. Ни американцы, ни британцы, ни французы, ни немцы не должны вообще там появляться, нет никаких оснований. Это придуманные угрозы, они нарисованы на бумаге обычным фломастером", - заявил Козин в интервью Sputnik Латвия, комментируя статью Сапольски в журнале National Interest.

Он отметил, что американцы засиделись в Европе после Второй мировой войны.

"Американцам давно пора вернуться домой. И заодно прихватить с собой и тактическое ядерное оружие, которое они там имеют, и свои противоракетные системы, которые являются системами двойного назначения, то есть в пусковые установки могут загружаться не только реально оборонительные системы – ракеты-перехватчики, – но и наступательные виды вооружений – крылатые ракеты наземного базирования и в скором времени – гиперзвуковые системы", - сказал Козин.

По его словам, формат НАТО устарел, еще с дезинтеграцией организации Варшавского договора.

"Этот союз должен быть давно распущен, вместо этого должна быть совершенно другая система европейской безопасности, ее основные принципы заложены в проекте российского договора о европейской безопасности, который давно пылится на столах натовского руководства", - заключил эксперт.

Источник: Sputnik Латвия

В. Козин: Волна с Атлантики или Тихого океана высотой 30 метров

Эксперт объяснил пристальное внимание стран НАТО к российскому «Посейдону»

Российский ядерный подводный беспилотник «Посейдон» является крайне мощным оружием, поэтому страны НАТО проявляют к нему повышенное внимание.

Таким мнением в ходе организованного Медиагруппой «Патриот» эфира поделился член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ (РАВН) Владимир Козин. Он отметил, что боезаряд «Посейдона» имеет мощность 100 мегатонн в тротиловом эквиваленте.

«Это очень страшное оружие. Волна с Атлантики или Тихого океана, в зависимости от того, где будет произведен взрыв, высотой 30 метров», — объяснил Козин.

Эксперт добавил, что этого будет достаточно для уничтожения большинства военных объектов на побережье США. При этом от Европы ничего не останется, если будет применена эта «суперторпеда». Козин подчеркнул, что Россия должна развивать программы создания перспективных боевых систем, в том числе ядерных.

Источник: РИА ФАН

 

 

В. Козин: Все три военные доктрины США носят наступательный характер

Британские СМИ увидели в новой российской авиабомбе "Дрель" "сигнал агрессии". Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik прокомментировал эти утверждения.

Новая авиационная бомба "Дрель", которая будет принята на вооружение российской армии в этом году, является "очередным сигналом агрессии со стороны Кремля", пишет британский таблоид Daily Express.

Издание полагает, что новый боеприпас, предназначенный для истребителей пятого поколения Су-57, усиливает опасения по поводу возможного начала третьей мировой войны.

В статье приводятся слова представителей концерна-разработчика "Дрели" "Техмаш" о том, что с помощью бомбы можно наносить удары по объектам на расстоянии в 30 километров, избегая воздушного пространства врага.

Одна такая бомба, пишет таблоид, снаряжается 15 самоприцеливающимися суббоеприпасами, которых достаточно для уничтожения танковой колонны или ракетной батареи. При этом "Дрель" остается невидимой для радаров.

Daily Express утверждает, что Россия сообщила о новой бомбе вскоре после того, как в британском Солсбери был отравлен экс-сотрудник ГРУ Сергей Скрипаль, что, по мнению автора статьи, является "еще одним сигналом агрессии со стороны Кремля".

Однако на самом деле впервые "Техмаш" представил данную разработку в 2015 году на авиакосмическом салоне МАКС, под названием "Дрель" она стала известна на форуме "Армия-2016". Планирующая бомбовая кассета "Дрель", которая будет принята на вооружение ВС России в 2018 году, предназначена для поражения бронетанковой техники, наземных радиолокационных станций и пунктов управления в любую погоду без захода самолета в зону действия объектов ПВО.

В эфире радио Sputnik профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин прокомментировал выводы Daily Express "о сигналах агрессии".

"Это самая настоящая глупость. Прежде чем обвинять нас в каких-то мелочах, которые не меняют стратегическую ситуацию в мире, посмотрели бы, что делается в странах НАТО в плане военного строительства и военной активности в непосредственной близости от российских рубежей. Все три доктрины, которые были утверждены нынешней американской администрацией, носят агрессивный наступательный характер, где названы два государства, которые являются потенциальными противниками США: Российская Федерация и КНР. Причем, Америка действительно планирует агрессию. Она модернизирует стратегическую ядерную триаду, в которую входят межконтинентальные баллистические ракеты, ракеты подводных лодок и тяжелые бомбардировщики. Модернизирует тактическое ядерное оружие в виде ядерных бомб В61, развивает ПРО глобального развертывания. Идет более активная разведка самолетами стран НАТО вокруг российских рубежей: на прошлой неделе сообщалось о 23 самолетах-разведчиках, они побили свой же рекорд. Кроме того, на трех базах Балтии приземляются самолеты двойного назначения государств-членов НАТО: Великобритании, США и Франции. Они могут нести как обычные, так и ядерные виды вооружений", – сказал Владимир Козин.

Источник: РИА Новости

 

В. Козин: Выводы в США о превосходстве российских дронов

Россия обгоняет США в сфере разработок боевых роботов, пишут американские СМИ. В эфире радио Sputnik профессор Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин рассказал о направлениях, по которым ведутся разработки беспилотников.

Россия начинает обгонять США в области беспилотных боевых систем, об этом говорится в статье американского эксперта Самуэля Бендетта, опубликованной в издании Defence One.

Как указывает автор статьи, Россия производит разведывательные беспилотники собственной разработки ("Элерон") или по лицензии ("Застава" и "Форпост"). Они, пишет эксперт, отличаются от американских аналогов меньшими габаритами, простотой и низкой ценой, благодаря чему их можно использовать без боязни потерять.

Кроме того, Россия сокращает отставание от США в области ударных беспилотников – летом был представлен БПЛА с большой продолжительностью полета "Орион", к 2020 году российская армия получит дроны от "МиГа" и "Сухого". К тому же, пишет эксперт, Минобороны России ведет переговоры о создании "роев беспилотников с искусственным интеллектом".

Говоря о наземных комплексах, Бендетт пишет, что Москва уже активно использует роботов для разминирования и разведки. Так, в Сирии успешно были применены роботы "Уран-6", "Скарабей" и "Сфера". Кроме того, отмечает эксперт, к принятию на вооружение готовятся тяжелые боевые роботы "Уран-9" и "Вихрь" и средние "Нерехта", "Платформа-М".

В то же время, пишет Бендетт, США "осторожничают" и только планируют развитие роботов для наземной поддержки. Эксперт уверен, что у американского военного руководства возникают сомнения касательно этичности использования машин, способных убивать.

В статье отмечается, что в целом российские технологии все еще отстают от западных по таким ключевым направлениям, как средства связи, микроэлектроника и высокотехнологичные комплексы управления. Однако Россия быстро сокращает разрыв, особенно в области автономных систем, и военному руководству США давно пора задуматься об этом, резюмирует эксперт.

В эфире радио Sputnik профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин прокомментировал выводы американского эксперта.

"Это очень перспективный вид вооружений, поскольку на беспилотниках могут устанавливаться ракеты и различные другие ударно-боевые системы. И, естественно, они (беспилотники – ред.) могут использоваться для проведения разведки, осмотра местности, фотографирования и видеосъемки. То есть, повторюсь, это очень перспективный вид военной техники, и Российской Федерации нужно заниматься очень активно этими двумя направлениями – ударно-боевыми и информационно-разведывательными беспилотными системами и легкого, и тяжелого предназначения. Я желаю Российской Федерации больших успехов на этом направлении", – сказал Владимир Козин.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: Выдвигать ультиматумы по ДРСМД должны не США

США выдвинули России ультиматум по ДРСМД. При этом сам Вашингтон продолжает нарушать договор, отметил в эфире радио Sputnik военный эксперт Владимир Козин.
 
Госсекретарь США Майк Помпео заявил, что России дается два месяца на то, чтобы она вернулась к выполнению Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД) от 1987 года. Он добавил, что если этого не произойдет, то Вашингтон приостановит обязательства по ДРСМД.
 
Помпео добавил, что в течение этого периода США не станут производить, испытывать и размещать ракеты, которые подпадают под действие договора. "После этих 60 дней мы посмотрим, что будет", –  заявил госсекретарь.
Официальный представитель МИД Мария Захарова в ответ на слова Помпео заявила, что Москва неукоснительно выполняет соглашение, и Вашингтону это известно.
 
Зампред комитета Совета Федерации по международным делам Владимир Джабаров заявил РИА Новости, что Россия уже передала Соединенным Штатам все документы, которые подтверждают выполнение Москвой положений договора, а обвинения в нарушениях не имеют обоснований.
 
Профессор Академии военных наук, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин считает, что отвечать на вопросы американской стороны по этому поводу вообще не стоит.
 
"Вообще-то это Россия должна предъявить жесткий ультиматум американской стороне и выделить не 60 дней на урегулирование вопроса, а 24 часа. Американцы, начиная с 2001 года, регулярно нарушают этот договор. При тестировании эффективности системы противоракетной обороны американская сторона в течение последних 17 лет использовала учебные ракеты средней и меньшей дальности в качестве объектов перехвата. То есть те ракеты, которые указанным договором полностью запрещены. Поэтому надо не просто выражать какие-то пожелания, а просто требовать от американцев выполнения. Они продолжат нарушения. Поэтому надо не отвечать на те вопросы, которые ставят американцы, а выдвигать свои претензии и вопросы американской стороне по поводу нарушения упомянутого договора", – сказал Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik.
 
Ранее американский президент Дональд Трамп объявил, что США намерены выйти из ДРСМД, так как Россия, по его словам, нарушает договоренности. В Вашингтоне указывали на то, что целый ряд стран, обладающих ракетами такого типа, в первую очередь Китай, в соглашении не участвуют.
 
Российская сторона, в свою очередь, подчеркивает, что строго соблюдает свои обязательства. Министр иностранных дел Сергей Лавров отмечал, что у Москвы имеются вопросы к США. В России, в частности, указывают, что Соединенные Штаты размещают на суше – на военной базе в Румынии, а также в Польше – установки, которые могут запускать ударные крылатые ракеты типа "Томагавк", что запрещено договором.
Кроме того, российская сторона обращает внимание на то, что Вашингтон разрабатывает ударные беспилотники и финансирует исследования по созданию крылатой ракеты наземного базирования.
 
Источник: РИА Новости
 

Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/42933

 
 

В. Козин: Геополитическая обстановка не позволяет нам почивать на лаврах

Почему-то в Европе считают наши «Бореи» и «Посейдоны» «мифами Путина»

Новые российские авианосцы никогда не будет качаться на волнах, наш истребитель пятого поколения Миг-41 так и не взмоет в небо, а «Посейдону» не суждено реально опуститься на морские глубины, ведь все российское супероружие существует не в форме готовых изделий, а исключительно на бумаге. Предназначается-то оно не для реального применения, а для того, чтобы, во-первых, банально пугать Запад мифическими угрозами ядерной атаки, от которой невозможно защититься, и, во-вторых, всеми правдами и неправдами удержать в стране талантливых ученых, чтобы их способностями не смогли воспользоваться за рубежом.

К таким «ошеломительным» выводам приходит, в частности, польское издание Polityka.

То ли дело покойный ныне Саддам Хусейн, рассуждает это СМИ. Конфисковала же в 1990 году британская таможня в доках Тиспорта фрагменты пушечного ствола длиной примерно в полтора футбольных поля, направлявшиеся в Ирак. Такая пушка позволила бы тогдашнему иракскому лидеру не только запускать в космос спутники, но и поражать наземные цели. На эти части гигантского ствола можно хотя бы полюбоваться в британских музеях, констатирует Polityka, а чем Россия подтвердит свои заявления о супероружии? Только и может нынешний российский лидер, что организовывать контролируемые «утечки информации» о сверхподлодках и ракетах, которые не получается запустить в серийное производство аж с 1992 года.

«После распада СССР российские предприятия военно-промышленного сектора лишились способности серийно производить современные системы вооружений в опоре на отечественные разработки. В 2014 году, после аннексии Крыма, они были отрезаны от западных технологий. Иллюстрируют ситуацию проблемы с принятием на вооружение танков Т-14 „Армата“, истребителей Су-57 или ракетных фрегатов проекта 22350 „Адмирал Горшков“», — цитирует издание, в частности, польского военного аналитика, капитана первого ранга в отставке Максимилиана Дуру.

— И нынешняя, и перспективная геополитическая обстановка как в военной, так и в политической, экономической, дипломатической, да и во всех прочих сферах не позволяет нам почивать не на лаврах, а, как говаривает нынешняя молодежь, перефразируя известное выражение, «на лавках». Нельзя нам сидеть сложа руки, — считает  ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ и РАЕН Владимир Козин. — Потому что комбинированная военная угроза России со стороны не только США, но и их ближайших партнеров по НАТО в последнее время резко возросла.

— То есть нам не только Америка на пятки наступает?

— Среди стран НАТО конкурентные разработки ведут главные игроки североатлантического альянса. В первую очередь — Великобритания, а также Франция и ФРГ. Это понятно — у них-то, как говорится, тоже голова болит за свою безопасность. Так что они и дальше будут этим заниматься. При этом я не исключаю, что они могут проходить весь путь от научно-исследовательских и опытно-конструкторских разработок до выпуска готового изделия как индивидуально, так и в кооперации с одним или несколькими государствами — скажем, одно из них доводит до ума один компонент, второе — другой, и так далее.

— А России в этом плане не с кем «дружить»? Мы по-прежнему можем надеяться только на себя?

— На мой взгляд, нам обязательно нужно вступить в подобную кооперацию с Китаем с целью создания принципиально новых видов вооружений. Потому что возрастание угрозы со стороны США и их союзников актуально также и для него. Потому что в основных направлениях американской национальной стратегии, озвученных в марте этого года Джо Байденом, Китай и Россия в списке военных угроз занимают, соответственно, первое и второе места. Так что нам с китайцами не на словах, а на деле надо бы стать не просто стратегическими, а перманентно суперстратегическими партнерами.

Если, конечно, польские СМИ считают, что все передовое российское вооружение существует только на бумаге, то пусть себе по-прежнему так и считают себе на здоровье. Могу их с этим только поздравить и порекомендовать им действовать в том же духе. Но хоть я и не могу назвать вам точные даты, однако уверяю вас — в самое ближайшее время у нас не просто должно, а обязано появится еще более высококлассное оружие. Причем как в сфере гиперзвуковых, так и в сфере ракетно-ядерных вооружений.

Автор: Андрей Захарченко. Источник: “Свободная пресса”

В. Козин: Гонка космических вооружений не за горами

Ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО в программе “Открытый эфир” на канале “Звезда”.

Дональд Трамп начал «звездные войны». Американцы заявили о создании космических войск.

Эфир от 4 сентября 2019г.

Полную версию программы смотрите на сайте канала

В. Козин: ДОН — дитя той «романтической эпохи» в отношениях России с США и НАТО, когда элементы доверия еще были

Несмотря на угрозы США выйти из Договора по открытому небу (ДОН), в России не уверены, что Штаты реально намерены осуществить этот шаг. Об этом «Известиям» на полях Московской конференции по нераспространению – 2019 заявил замглавы МИД России Сергей Рябков. 
 
По его словам, договор крайне важен для всех сторон, а в случае его денонсации американцами Москве нужно будет серьезно проработать ответ, поскольку зеркальные меры здесь неприемлемы. Опрошенные «Известиями» эксперты сошлись во мнении: с вероятным выходом США сам договор не развалится — в нем по-прежнему будут участвовать 33 страны. Однако принципиальным станет вопрос, как в данном контексте будут действовать европейские союзники Вашингтона.
 
Одним меньше?
 
Москва не будет выходить из Договора по открытому небу, если такой шаг предпримут Соединенные Штаты. Как заявил «Известиям» Сергей Рябков, в РФ не уверены, что Вашингтон намерен покинуть соглашение, однако готовы рассмотреть различные варианты действий в ответ на возможный демарш США.
 
— Нам надо будет взвесить ситуацию заново. Мы считаем договор важным элементом, который особенно в нынешней ситуации стабилизирует многие процессы. Варианты действий (в ответ на возможный выход США. — «Известия») есть разные, однако мы не можем просто взять и поступить зеркально, — сказал дипломат. — При этом мы не уверены, что США близки к выходу.
 
Сергей Рябков подчеркнул: в Москве хотели бы надеяться на то, что США всё же останутся участниками договора.
 
О том, что Белый дом рассматривает выход из ДОН, стало известно 8 октября 2019 года. Тогда глава комитета по иностранным делам в палате представителей конгресса Элиот Энгел обратился с письмом к советнику президента по нацбезопасности Роберту О'Брайену. В этом обращении он осудил намерение администрации прекратить участие США в договоре и призвал ее «против таких опрометчивых действий».
 
27 октября американское издание The Wall Street Journal со ссылкой на двух неназванных официальных лиц сообщило, что президент США Дональд Трамп уже подписал документ о намерении вывести страну из договора. При этом один из источников утверждал, что окончательное решение пока не принято.
 
В этом контексте неудивительно, что категоричной реакции нет ни от Москвы, ни от ОБСЕ, под эгидой которой этот договор был подписан. Как ранее заявил генеральный секретарь организации Томас Гремингер, ОБСЕ рассчитывает, что «США будут и дальше придерживаться этого очень важного инструмента в нашей архитектуре контроля над вооружениями». При этом дипломат подчеркнул: к настоящему моменту нет никакой достоверной информации, которую можно было бы комментировать.
 
На запрос «Известий», намерены ли Штаты покинуть соглашение и каковы, на взгляд Вашингтона, будут последствия этого, Госдепартамент США оперативного комментария не предоставил.
 
Элементы доверия
 
Договор по открытому небу был подписан в 1992 году. Тогда его заключили 27 государств — участников Совещания по безопасности и сотрудничеству в Европе (СБСЕ, с 1995 года — ОБСЕ). Он вступил в силу десять лет спустя, и на сегодняшний день в нем участвуют 34 члена организации.
 
— Этот договор заключался после завершения холодной войны и подписания Договора об обычных вооруженных силах в Европе (ДОВСЕ подписан в 1990 году, Россия приостановила свое участие в 2015-м. — «Известия»), — пояснил «Известиям» директор Фонда изучения США имени Франклина Рузвельта при МГУ Юрий Рогулев. — Таким образом, он принимался как документ, содействующий мерам доверия в Европе. Поэтому его действие было направлено в первую очередь на европейские страны.
 
Благодаря этому документу был создан режим полетов над территорией стран-участниц для наблюдения за их военной деятельностью в пределах обговоренных ограничений. ДОН регламентирует ход полетов и обработку сведений, а также очерчивает требования к самолетам, которые не оснащены каким-либо вооружением, и наблюдательной аппаратуре на борту. Вся собранная информация поступает в доступный всем участникам банк данных. При этом маршрут должен проходить не ближе 10 км от границы прилежащего государства, которое ДОН не подписывало.
 
Каких-либо ограничений на такие полеты договор не предусматривает. Лишь согласно ст. VIII наблюдаемая сторона может наложить на них запрет в случае, если наблюдатель нарушает правила процедуры или не выполняет требования к оборудованию или маршруту.
 
Обострение в отношениях России и США в рамках этого договора произошло в 2017 году. У Вашингтона были две основные претензии к Москве — ограничение наблюдательных полетов над Калининградской областью в 500 км в 2014 году и отказ в таких полетах над 10-километровой зоной вдоль границ с Абхазией и Южной Осетией, которые, с точки зрения РФ, являются суверенными государствами.
 
Российская сторона, в свою очередь, обвиняет Штаты в проволочках при согласовании маршрутов над американскими территориями в Тихом океане. Кроме того, в 2017 году США ввели ограничения на полеты над Гавайями и лишили российские наблюдательные экипажи возможности пользоваться базами ВВС в штатах Джорджия и Южная Дакота, которые предоставлялись для отдыха и дозаправки. В ответ МИД РФ объявил об отказе американским экипажам в ночевках на трех российских аэродромах.
 
— Этот договор — дитя той «романтической эпохи» в отношениях России с США и НАТО, когда элементы доверия еще были, — объяснил «Известиям» член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин. — Однако нынешние претензии США к России под собой оснований не имеют. В частности, в Калининградской области очень насыщенное передвижение самолетов — ежедневно совершается множество пассажирских рейсов, и эту трассу пересекать нельзя.
 
Учитывая, что договор многосторонний, говорить о его развале с выходом Соединенных Штатов было бы неправильно — документ поддерживают еще 33 страны. Однако для российско-американских отношений это будет означать утрату еще одного элемента доверия. В отказе США от соглашения больше символики, чем реального ущерба, отметил Юрий Рогулев, но этот жест встает в цепочку уже разрушенных договоренностей, взамен которых не предлагается ничего.
 
 
Автор: Екатерина Постникова, Источник:  "Известия"  
 
 
 
Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/45403
 

В. Козин: Действия американцев в космосе угрожает безопасности России

Ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований в программе “Сегодня” на канале НТВ.

Создание космического Командования во главе с генералом Джоном Реймондом – последний шаг перед окончательным формированием космических войск США.

Эфир от 30 августа 2019г.

В. Козин: Дядя Сэм скажет Европе: “No, sir!”

Выступление ведущего эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО Владимира Козина в программе «Особая статья» на телеканале "Звезда".

Политические лидеры Германии и Франции выступают с осуждением решения Трампа о выходе из «иранской сделки». Звучат слова: «Мы не вассалы Вашингтона». Это громкие заявления, или Берлин и Париж действительно готовы идти против США? Хватит ли смелости у «тефлоновой Меркель» и «нового Де Голля» Макрона не спасовать перед Трампом и перейти от слов к действиям? И как будет действовать Трамп, если разразится бунт Европы против США? Некоторые западные эксперты считают, что выход Америки из «ядерной сделки» неожиданно превратил Германию и Россию в союзников.

«Нельзя исключать и появление треугольника Москва-Париж-Берлин, который соответствует "нормандскому формату", занимающемуся Украиной», - отмечают печатные СМИ. И это сближение трех стран беспокоит Киев. Особенно в отношении реализации проекта «Северный поток -2».

На этом фоне обострилась ситуация и на юго-востоке Украины. Киев уже анонсирует планы деоккупации Донбасса с помощью «голубых касок». При этом встреча Порошенко с лидерами Германии и Франции в Аахене, которая подавалась украинскими СМИ как «нормандский формат»" без России, провалилась. Киевские политики разочарованы - без России Запад не готов решать украинский вопрос. Эфир от 14 мая 2018г.

 

В. Козин: Европейцы “прячутся в кусты”

Журнал The National Interest опубликовал статью, в которой возможное размещение американской военной базы в Польше названо плохой идеей и для США, и для Европы. Эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik прокомментировал публикацию.
 
Эксперт журнала The National Interest Дуг Бэндоу назвал возможное размещение американской военной базы в Польше плохой идеей для США и Европы.
 
По его словам, развертывание базы не имеет смысла – сейчас едва ли кто верит, что Россия захочет напасть на Польшу. При этом Бэндоу напомнил, что речь идет о ядерной державе. Эксперт уверен, что создание новой военной базы приведет к обострению конфронтации между Москвой и Вашингтоном. По его мнению, у России и так есть причины для недовольства, например, расширение НАТО на восток и вмешательство США в политику государств возле российских границ.
"Если бы Россия вела себя подобным образом в Канаде или Мексике, Вашингтон отреагировал бы резко и агрессивно", – считает он.
 
Автор уверен, что Европа сама в состоянии поддерживать свою обороноспособность.
 
Профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik прокомментировал публикацию The National Interest.       
 
"Этот эксперт реалистично воспринимает ситуацию и явно не хочет дальнейшего обострения обстановки на европейском континенте. Создание в Польше американской военной базы, развертывание там бронетанковой дивизии США, развертывание там же оперативного комплекса системы ПРО и тому подобные планы, конечно, только омрачают ситуацию и могут привести к непоправимым последствиям. И очень хорошо, что кто-то на Западе это понимает. К сожалению, подобные здравые голоса являются редкостью: лидеры многих европейских государств или подпевают американцам, или "прячутся в кусты", предпочитая отмалчиваться. А некоторые, как руководители государств Прибалтики или той же Польши, тем временем готовы отдать территорию своих стран американцам буквально за бесценок", – сказал Владимир Козин. 
 
Ранее Польша предложила США разместить в стране постоянную военную базу. Посещая в сентябре этого года с визитом Вашингтон, президент Польши Анджей Дуда вновь напомнил, что Варшава надеется на создание такой базы, и предложил назвать ее Fort Trump ("Форт-Трамп"). Предложение было выдвинуто вне рамок НАТО в двустороннем порядке. Президент США Дональд Трамп заявил, что в Вашингтоне обдумывают возможность создания такой базы. В свою очередь, министр обороны РФ Сергей Шойгу отметил, что эти шаги не способствуют укреплению региональной безопасности и вынуждают Москву принимать ответные меры.
 
Источник: РИА Новости
 

Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/42674

 

В. Козин: Если на Украине перейдут красную черту

 
Владимир Козин - профессор Академии военных наук РФ и ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД РФ - о том, что Россия должна действовать жестко и целенаправленно на украинском направлении.
 

В. Козин: Если хотят жить — оружие на землю, в колонну по одному

Украинские военные, заблокированные на заводе "Азот" в Северодонецке и удерживающие заложников, не в том положении, чтобы ставить условия. Об этом Лайфу сказал член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин, комментируя то, что бойцы ВСУ потребовали дать им спокойно уйти в соседний Лисичанск.

"Мало ли что они просят, это решают совместные союзные вооружённые силы РФ и республик ДНР и ЛНР. Поэтому если хотят жить — оружие на землю, в колонну по одному. Но прежде должны выпустить всех гражданских лиц, которых они удерживают в качестве живого щита. Других разговоров быть не может", — пояснил аналитик.

Он подчеркнул, что это военные преступники, которые должны понести наказание по всей строгости закона, их дорога — в тюрьму, а не в Лисичанск. Козин также возмутился двуличности Запада. Мировые лидеры взывают к милосердию по отношению к украинским нацистам и при этом продолжают поставки ударных видов вооружения большой дальности, которым ВСУ убивают жителей Донбасса.

"Все западные страны – члены НАТО, которые поставляют смертоносные виды вооружения для убийства мирных граждан, должны компенсировать все моральные и материальные издержки убитым, раненым, за разрушенную инфраструктуру, жилые здания в десятикратном размере", — резюмировал эксперт.

Напомним, украинские бойцы, заблокированные на заводе "Азот" в Северодонецке, вступили в переговоры и потребовали выпустить их в соседний Лисичанск вместе с заложниками. Как уточняется, на предприятии может находиться 300-400 военных ВСУ и более тысячи мирных граждан.

Источник: Life.ru

 

В. Козин: За сто секунд до “ядерной полуночи”

Стрелки “часов Судного дня”, которые отсчитываю условное время до возможного апокалипсиса, переведены на 20 секунд вперед. Что послужило причиной? Какую новую стратегию с применением ядерного оружия против России готовит Пентагон? Об этом в студии программы “Открытый эфир” на телеканале “Звезда” расскажет ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин.

Эфир от 27 января 2020 г.

В. Козин: Захват Россией одной из стран Балтии - больные фантазии или провокация

Насыщение Латвии войсками НАТО может привести к тому, что на месте страны окажется одна большая воронка, заявил экс-руководитель департамента стратегического планирования Генштаба вооруженных сил Латвии, главный советник начальника полиции Риги Раймондс Рубловскис. По его мнению, присутствие в Латвии военных баз НАТО не укрепляет ее безопасность, а, наоборот, ставит под угрозу существование государства.

Профессор Академии военных наук Владимир Козин напомнил, что ни о каких излишних территориальных претензиях или притязаниях России на территории других стран не было, нет и не будет.

>>аудиофайл<<

"Что касается планов захвата любого государства Балтии - это либо больные фантазии некоторых государственных деятелей политиков Латвии и НАТО, либо это просто провокационный сценарий, который разрабатывается в недрах Североатлантического союза, чтобы заставить государства Балтии как можно больше выкладывать денег на военные цели, причем в объемах, которые значительно превосходят любые оборонные разумные потребности названных государств", - заявил Козин в интервью Sputnik Латвия.

Он напомнил, что такие сценарии были и раньше, но и сейчас они периодически всплывают или вбрасываются. По его словам, в странах Балтии могут разместить новые противоракетные системы США, что следует из обнародованной накануне новой стратегии ПРО.

Источник: Спутник-Латвия

В. Козин: Зачем США на самом деле хотят кредитовать страны Балтии

Избыточные военные приготовления ни к чему хорошему никогда не приводили

Американский конгрессмен Элиот Энгель придумал, как оказать поддержку странам Балтии в их противостоянии Москве и одновременно помочь военно-промышленному комплексу США. Политик инициировал законопроект о выдаче отдельным членам НАТО кредитов на военные нужды, чтобы обеспечить их национальную оборону и помочь избавиться от "зависимости" от России.

Профессор Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин напоминает, что Россия не собирается совершать акт агрессии против стран Балтии и не проводит военные учения, направленные против Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии. Таким образом, кредитование военных

>>аудиофайл<<

"Деньги, которые планируется выделить на военные цели трем государствам Балтии, будут использованы для расширения плацдарма стран - членов НАТО против Российской Федерации и Республики Беларусь и еще в большей степени вовлекут государства Балтии в натовские военные структуры", - заявил Козин в интервью Sputnik Латвия.

Он напомнил, что демократическими ценностями в Латвии, Литве и Эстонии и не пахнет, русскоязычное население - изгои общества, их не пускают никуда, нарушают права человека, вводят лингвистические препоны и преграды.

"Избыточные военные приготовления ни к чему хорошему никогда не приводили, милитаризация общества, лишние траты, подрыв социально-экономических программ, ухудшение отношений со своими ближайшими соседями", - подытожил эксперт.

Источник: Sputnik  – Латвия

В. Козин: Зачем США создают клона НАТО в Тихоокеанском регионе?

Завершились стратегические учения «Восток 2022», в которых приняли участие 14 стран.

В интервью «Sputnik на русском» член-корреспондент Российской Академии военных наук Владимир Козин заявил: нельзя исключать, что против государств, которые направили своих военных представителей на учения, могут быть предприняты агрессивные меры.

По мнению эксперта, опасность в Тихоокеанском регионе представляет коалиция сил США, Великобритании и Австралии. Как на фоне нарастающей напряжённости улучшаются отношения России с Китаем и Индией? С кем ещё из азиатских стран у российской стороны совпадают интересы?

Источник: «Sputnik на русском»

В. Козин: Заявление США о «готовности» вернуться в иранскую ядерную сделку – это просто информационный вброс

 

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Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в эфире радио Sputnik

Ушли, чтобы вернуться? Брюссель активизировал переговоры с Вашингтоном по поводу его возвращения в ядерную сделку с Ираном. Это было логично: инициировал выход из договора Дональд Трамп. Продолжение совместной сессии и встречи участников сделки состоятся на следующей неделе. Получится ли возобновить контакты США и Ирану?

Владимир Козин, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ: «Заявление США о «готовности» вернуться в иранскую ядерную сделку – это просто информационный вброс. А что они сделали, чтобы реально сделать это? Практически ничего. Лишь обставляют такой шаг разными предварительными условиями, которые неприемлемы для Ирана».

Эфир от 2 апреля 2021г.

Источник: радио Sputnik

 

В. Козин: Зеленский хорошо осведомлён, что удар по Краматорску нанесли ВСУ

Однако украинский лидер по-прежнему продолжает распространять ложь о происходящем. В данном случае он занимается сокрытием военных преступлений, считает специалист. Вооружённые силы РФ не могли нанести удар ракетой "Точка-У" по вокзалу в Краматорске, потому что не располагают подобным видом вооружения. И президент Украины Владимир Зеленский знает о том, что атака была совершена со стороны ВСУ. Об этом Лайфу рассказал член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин.

"Такого удара ВС РФ где бы то ни было по украинской территории, в том числе по вокзалу в городе Краматорске, вообще не наносили и не могут нанести по одной простой причине: таких ракет "Точка-У" в распоряжении российского воинского контингента и у ополчения Донбасса не было и нет", — сказал он.

Также Козин посчитал важным отметить, что такие ракеты, применение которых запрещено международным правом из-за их назначения по уничтожению большого количества людей, не находятся на вооружении России. Он уточнил, что "Точка-У" имеет значительное количество поражающих элементов в виде шрапнели — до 15 тысяч фрагментов.

"Если "Точка-У" реально была применена по краматорскому вокзалу, то это сделали только ВСУ. Они уже неоднократно использовали такие ракеты для ударов по мирным гражданам Донбасса", — отметил эксперт.

По словам Козина, Зеленский об этом отлично осведомлён, однако украинский лидер по-прежнему продолжает распространять ложь о происходящем. В данном случае он занимается сокрытием военных преступлений ВСУ, считает специалист.

Напомним, ранее сегодня Вооружённые силы Украины нанесли ракетный удар "Точкой-У" по городу Краматорску. Как сообщил в штабе территориальной обороны ДНР, обломки упали в районе железнодорожного вокзала, где проходила эвакуация местного населения. В Сети появились страшные кадры с места трагедии, на них видно, что погибли и пострадали десятки человек. Как позже сообщил представитель Народной милиции ДНР Эдуард Басурин, в результате атаки погибло около 30 человек.

Источник: Life

В. Козин: И тот нацизм — фашистско-германский, и нынешний — украинский, вскормлен Западом

Путин вложил новый смысл в День Победы, особая роль отведена участникам спецоперации на Украине

День Победы в этом году обрел новый смысл — Россия, как и 80 лет назад, вновь вынуждена защищать свои границы и противостоять нацизму. Президент РФ Владимир Путин в своей речи на военном параде 9 Мая показал, что российские военные в Донбассе делают то же самое, что и советские солдаты в 1941—1945 годах, пояснили URA.RU политологи. Это — сигнал всему миру и сигнал жителям страны, которые недооценивают значение Победы в Великой Отечественной и сегодняшние угрозы, считают эксперты.

В своей речи Путин напомнил об исторических победах. Президент сказал, что 9 мая 1945 года — это «триумф единого советского народа, его сплоченности и духовной мощи, беспримерного подвига на фронте и в тылу».

Он подчеркнул, что сегодня в Донбассе, как и тогда, идет сражение «за безопасность России». Долг сегодняшних поколений — «хранить память о тех, кто сокрушал нацизм, кто завещал нам быть бдительными и сделать все, чтобы ужас глобальной войны не повторился», отметил Путин. «И потому, несмотря на все разногласия в международных отношениях, Россия всегда выступала за создание системы равной и неделимой безопасности, системы, которая жизненно необходима всему мировому сообществу», — сказал президент.

Путин напомнил, что Россия делала все, чтобы разрешить украинский конфликт дипломатически, однако «страны НАТО не захотели услышать». Он подчеркнул, что в течение последних лет «все говорило о том, что столкновение с неонацистами, бандеровцами, на которых США и их младшие компаньоны сделали ставку, будет неизбежным».

«Мы видели, как разворачивается военная инфраструктура, как начали работать сотни зарубежных советников, шли регулярные поставки самого современного оружия из стран НАТО. Опасность росла с каждым днем. Россия дала упреждающий отпор агрессии. Это было вынужденное, своевременное и единственно правильное решение. Решение суверенной, сильной, самостоятельной страны», — подчеркнул президент.

По словам Путина, в отличие от Запада, который отказался от тысячелетних ценностей, «у России другой характер», и она не откажется «от любви к Родине, от веры и традиционных ценностей, от обычаев предков, от уважения ко всем народам и культурам». Он сожалел, что американских ветеранов их же власти не пустили на парад Победы в Москву. «Но хочу, чтобы они знали: мы гордимся вашими подвигами, вашим вкладом в общую Победу. Мы чтим всех воинов союзнических армий — американцев, англичан, французов — участников Сопротивления, отважных солдат и партизан Китая — всех, кто разгромил нацизм и милитаризм», — заявил Путин.

Обращение к военнослужащим, которые сегодня борются против неонацистов в Донбассе, и к их семьям стало особой частью речи президента. Путин заверил, что семьи, дети погибших и раненых бойцов получат поддержку от государства. Он поблагодарил медиков, которые работают в военных госпиталях, «часто под обстрелом, на передовой, не жалея себя».

По Красной площади в День Победы прошли участники спецоперации в Донбассе — из разных регионов страны, разных национальностей. Но они и в парадных коробках, и в бою — вместе, «прикрывают друг друга от пуль и осколков как братья», подчеркнул президент. «И в этом сила России, великая, несокрушимая сила нашего единого многонационального народа. Сегодня вы защищаете то, за что сражались отцы и деды, прадеды. Для них высшим смыслом жизни всегда были благополучие и безопасность Родины. И для нас, их наследников, преданность Отчизне — главная ценность, надежная опора независимости России», — заявил Путин.

В этом году речь Путина стала самой продолжительной, начиная с 2000 года, — 5,8 тысячи знаков (год назад было 5,6 тысячи знаков). Раньше перед участниками парада Путин говорил о терроризме (2002-2005, 2016 годы), об экстремизме (2006—2007 года), о внешнем вмешательстве (2012—2013 годы), в 2015 году — о попытках создания однополярного мира, в 2017-2018 и в 2020 годах — о диалоге и глобальной безопасности, в 2019 году — об искажении исторической правды. В 2021 году он объединил эти темы в своем выступлении, но акцент сделал на угрозе возрождающегося на Украине нацизма. И, спустя год, Россия фактически в одиночку, как и СССР в 1941 году, вынуждена противостоять ему.

Причем противостоять в том числе в информационной войне: в течение нескольких дней перед 9 Мая в СМИ и в соцсетях распространялась информация о готовящейся мобилизации в РФ (однако Кремль ее опроверг). Украинские и западные СМИ писали о подготовке удара по Крымскому мосту и терактов в России. Нескольких человек из тех, кто готовил эти теракты, ФСБ на днях задержала: это группа неонацистов М.К.У. (Маньяки культ убийства — неонацистская группировка, создана в 2018 году на Украине), которые готовились заживо сжечь бездомных.

Президент провел параллель между поколением победителей 1945 года и их потомками, «на долю которых тоже выпала миссия уничтожить нацизм», сказал ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин. «И тот нацизм — фашистско-германский, и нынешний — украинский, вскормлен Западом.

Они мало чем отличаются — по жестокости, по уничтожению мирного населения, пыткам, варварскому отношению к военнопленным. Россия стала государством, которое понимало и понимает опасность нацизма. Главное, чтобы сегодняшняя молодежь сохранила Россию твердой и мощной, уважаемой и почитаемой во всем мире», — заявил Козин.

Автор: Екатерина Лазарева. Источник: ИА Ura.ru 

 

В. Козин: Идет подготовка к войне с Россией

 

Владимир Козин - профессор Академии военных наук РФ и ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД РФ - о том, что стоит за выходом США из Договора о РСМД и игнорировании еще десятка соглашений об оружии и безопасности.

Источник: "Русский военкор"

 

В. Козин: Индульгенция от МАГАТЭ

Эксперт объяснил, почему Киев безнаказанно обстреливает Запорожскую АЭС

Ни страны - члены НАТО, ни Евросоюз, ни руководство ООН не осудили провокационные вооруженные украинские акции на Запорожской АЭС, заявил изданию Украина.ру ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин

Глава МАГАТЭ Рафаэль Гросси понимает, что делал и до сих пор делает Киев в отношении ЗАЭС, уверен эксперт. Но несмотря на это, он продолжает обманывать мировое сообщество, скрывая виновника создания ядерной опасности, добавил Козин.

Документы МАГАТЭ, по сути дела, открыли для Киева уникальную возможность безнаказанно обстреливать эту станцию. Одновременно ни страны - члены НАТО, ни Евросоюза, ни руководство ООН не осудили такие провокационные вооруженные украинские акции.

После публикации антироссийских формулировок МАГАТЭ, киевский режим получил карт-бланш на подрыв безопасности своих собственных атомных объектов, считает Козин. Зеленский и ВСУ приобрели индульгенцию от МАГАТЭ на любые враждебные провокационные действия против своих АЭС, ведь виновницей потенциальной аварии с самого начала уже была назначена Россия, добавил он.

Лживыми являлись и голословные положения второго пункта мартовской резолюции Совета управляющих, в котором была выражена "серьезная озабоченность, что "агрессия Российской Федерации" препятствует Агентству в полной мере и безопасно проводить деятельность по проверке гарантий безопасности на украинских ядерных установках".

Источник: Украина.ру

 

В. Козин: КНДР обязательно ответит на создание "мегаракеты" в Южной Корее

Южная Корея с согласия США работает над "мегаракетой", сообщают СМИ. Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik высказал мнение, что создание подобной ракеты изменит баланс сил в регионе и усилит эскалацию напряженности.

Южная Корея с согласия США предпринимает попытки создать баллистическую "мегаракету", которая позволит переносить боезаряды, способные уничтожить подземные военные объекты и командные пункты КНДР, сообщает издание Korean Herald со ссылкой на военные источники.

По их информации, южнокорейское правительство планирует создать новый класс баллистических ракет "земля-земля", которые смогут достигать территории КНДР и переносить заряд весом до двух тонн. Газета назвала проект "ракетой-франкенштейном".

В ходе состоявшихся 4 сентября переговоров президент Южной Кореи Мун Чжэ Ин и президент США Дональд Трамп договорились снять ограничения на массу боеголовок. Ранее в рамках соглашения с США Южной Корее было запрещено устанавливать боеголовки весом более 500 килограммов на баллистические ракеты с дальностью 800 километров.

Профессор Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik отметил, что создание "мегаракеты" изменит баланс сил в регионе, что повлечет за собой еще большую эскалацию напряженности.

"Не понимаю, почему надо спрашивать только у Америки. Спрашивать надо и у всех остальных 34 государств, которые являются подписантами Режима контроля за ракетной технологией (РКРТ), который запрещает передавать, продавать другим участникам соглашения баллистические ракеты массой более 500 килограммов. Боезаряд у этой "ракеты-франкенштейна", конечно, не ядерный, а осколочно-фугасный. Но вместо боеголовки весом 500 килограммов уже называется 2000 килограммов. А по дальности стрельбы эта ракета покрывает всю территорию Северной Кореи. Конечно, это скажется негативно на балансе сил – Северная Корея обязательно ответит. И это приведет к эскалации напряженности не только между двумя Кореями, но и к еще большей напряженности между Северной Кореей и Соединенными Штатами. Причем эскалация проявится очень быстро", – сказал Владимир Козин.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: Как западное оружие может повлиять на ситуацию на Украине

 

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в эфире телеканала “Россия 24”

Президент США Джо Байден подтвердил отправку Украине оружия еще на 700 миллионов долларов. Основная часть так называемого "пакета помощи" – ракетные системы залпового огня "Хаймарс". О планах отправить на Украину системы залпового огня заявил и британский премьер. Что это за вооружения, рассказал член-корреспондент Академии военных наук Владимир Козин.

 

В. Козин: Киев постоянно говорит о возвращении к ядерному статусу, чтобы ударить по Донбассу

Назван ответ России на ядерный статус Украины

Если Украине удастся получить ядерный статус, то Россия нанесет превентивный удар по промышленным украинским объектам, которые могут быть причастны к созданию любого вида ядерного оружия и средств его доставки, заявил эксперт по вопросам ядерного разоружения, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин в разговоре с НСН.

Накануне украинский посол в Германии Алексей Макеев в интервью Deutsche Welle (признан Минюстом РФ СМИ, выполняющим функцию иноагента) заявил, что Киев намерен начать обсуждение ядерного статуса страны. При этом посол оговорился, что у него нет «готового предложения» о том, как это могло бы выглядеть. Владимир Козин отметил, что Россия не позволит получить Украине ядерный статус.

«Кто будет пересматривать безъядерный статус Украины? Россия? Нет. Американцы? Тоже нет. Старому, выжившему из ума Байдену, все-таки, подскажут, что нельзя передавать обезьяне ядерное оружие. Россия будет однозначно против в резкой форме. Как Киев может обойти это? Создать свое собственное оружие он не сможет. Никто на это не пойдет, это очередная психическая атака. Но если это случится, то Россия превентивным ударом уничтожит все украинские промышленные и исследовательские объекты, которые будут причастны к созданию ядерного оружия в любом виде. Также, как и в свое время Израиль наносил удары по иракскому ядерному центру, он действовал на упреждение и правильно делал», - сказал Козин.

Он рассказал, что власти Украины говорили о возвращении стране ядерного статуса еще задолго до прихода к власти президента Владимира Зеленского. По словам Козина, бывший премьер-министр Украины Юлия Тимошенко требовала ядерное оружие, чтобы нанести удар по Донбассу.

«Украина об этом говорит постоянно, еще задолго до Зеленского. И Юлия Тимошенко, когда была премьер-министром Украины, тоже требовала ядерное оружие, чтобы ударить по Донбассу. По Зеленскому, его аппарату и его министрам давно плачет любая украинская психиатрическая больница», - резюмировал Козин.

Так, после распада СССР Украина унаследовала внушительный ядерный арсенал. Но в 1994 году Украина, Россия, США и Британия подписали Будапештский меморандум, который является международным соглашением о гарантиях безопасности в связи с присоединением Украины к Договору о нераспространении ядерного оружия. В соответствии с договором ядерный арсенал на территории Украины был ликвидирован, а ядерные державы обязались гарантировать Киеву безопасность.

Владимир Зеленский 19 февраля прошлого года на Мюнхенской конференции заявил о намерении инициировать саммит стран — участниц Будапештского меморандума. Тогда он отметил, что меморандум будет признан Киевом как недействительный вместе с пунктами, подписанными в 1994 году, если саммит не состоится и не предоставит Украине гарантии безопасности, сообщает Telegram-канал «Радиоточка НСН».

Источник: НСН

 

 

В. Козин: Кроме РЭБ есть и другой метод борьбы с дронами террористов

Российский способ защиты от террористических атак с помощью беспилотников получил высокую оценку американских специалистов.

Вашингтону для защиты от террористических атак с помощью беспилотников следует использовать российский метод защиты, считает сотрудник американского Центра военно-морской аналитики (Center for Naval Analyses) Сэмюэль Бендетт.

Специалист, изучающий технологии беспилотных летательных аппаратов, уверен, что теракты с использованием дронов, подобные атакам, которые пытались устроить боевики в Хмеймиме, станут происходить чаще. Защититься от них, по мнению аналитика, поможет радиоэлектронная борьба (РЭБ).

"Россия уже говорит о еще большем усилении радиоэлектронной борьбы после сорванного теракта в Сирии", – сказал Бендетт в интервью журналу The National Interest.

Также эксперт отметил, что для отслеживания и уничтожения дронов противника целесообразно оснастить средствами РЭБ летательные аппараты, указав на пример российских ВКС, которые установили систему радиоэлектронной борьбы на многофункциональный беспилотник "Орлан-10".

Издание пришло к выводу, что РЭБ может оказаться гораздо более экономичным способом борьбы с дронами, чем уничтожение их дорогостоящими ракетами.

Восьмого января Минобороны России сообщило о предотвращении атаки дронов на российские объекты в Сирии. Шестого января десять беспилотников направлялись в Хмеймим и еще три – в Тартус для совершения налетов. Семь летательных аппаратов удалось уничтожить без пострадавших и материального ущерба, над остальными шестью российские военные перехватили контроль.

В эфире радио Sputnik профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин изложил свое видение проблемы.   

"Если террористы вознамерятся направить огромное количество дронов против того или иного объекта или тем более против группы объектов, может просто не найтись достаточного количества огневых средств для уничтожения всех этих дронов. Что касается методов РЭБ, то они позволяют создавать как бы "купол", который не позволяет дронам лететь по заданному маршруту, видеть цель, осуществлять наводку на цель", – отметил Владимир Козин.

По его словам, попытка атаки террористов на Хмеймим и Тартус при помощи дронов высветила и еще одну проблему.  

"Не будем забывать и о еще одном методе борьбы с возможными атаками со стороны террористов с применением дронов: просто не надо продавать террористическим группам технологии, позволяющие осуществлять такие атаки. Эти технологии нужно держать под контролем. То есть, государства, которые серьезно настроены бороться с терроризмом, должны следить за продажами соответствующих технологий, комплектующих и так далее. И, я думаю, потребуются международные встречи специалистов, правительственных экспертов, которые должны обсудить эту проблему", – отметил Владимир Козин.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: Крым принадлежит России с 1783 года и это все, что нужно знать об этом вопросе

Такое мнение высказал в видеоинтервью ИА "Инфорос" член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин.

На фоне празднования пятой годовщины присоединения Крыма к России, следует напомнить, что полуостров является российской территорией без малого уже 250 лет. В 1783 году Россия отвоевала эту землю у Османской империи и с тех пор никогда и никому ее передавала на законных основаниях.

В 1954 году Крым отошел к Украине с нарушением действующего на тот момент законодательства.

Сегодня крымский вопрос можно считать закрытым раз и навсегда. Это исконно российская земля и по-другому никогда уже не будет.

Источник: ИнфоРос

В. Козин: Латвия может полностью превратиться в полигон США и НАТО

В 2017 году Адажский военный полигон был расширен на 5 тысяч 259 гектаров, сообщает Министерство обороны Латвии, кроме того, ведомство ведет переговоры с 59 землевладельцами с целью дальнейшего увеличения полигона еще на 270 гектаров

Профессор академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин напоминает, что в Латвии, площадь которой составляет около 64 тысяч квадратных километров, любое изъятие земель под военные, а не производственные или социально-экономические цели является большой проблемой.

Также он напомнил, что соседние Литва и Эстония служат огромным полигоном для тяжелых видов вооружения.

"Это не может не беспокоить и соседние государства, сопредельные государства, да и вообще весь европейский континент", — заявил Козин в интервью Sputnik Латвия.

Источник: Sputnik Латвия

В. Козин: Литва представляет очень серьезную угрозу для Белоруссии

Речь идет не только о военном плане, но и о политическом, поскольку именно Вильнюс "приютил" Тихановскую.

Погранслужба Белоруссии проводит мероприятия по усилению охраны госграницы, в частности в Гродненской области, которая находится рядом с Польшей и Литвой.

Ранее президент Белоруссии Александр Лукашенко поручил "усилить охрану государственной границы по всему периметру в целях недопущения в Беларусь из других стран боевиков, оружия, боеприпасов, денег для финансирования беспорядков", а также следить за перемещением войск НАТО в соседних государствах.

В интервью Sputnik Литва член-корреспондент Академии военных наук Российской Федерации, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований Московского государственного института международных отношений (МГИМО) Владимир Козин рассказал, что на территории Литвы расположены натовские подразделения, где есть не только обычные виды вооружений, но и ядерные.

"Ну, конечно, угроза Республике Беларусь со стороны Литвы реальная и очень серьезная. Взять хотя бы не военный аспект, а гражданский, житейский – ведь Литва приютила эту главную оппозиционерку, которая собирается узурпировать власть незаконными, антиконституционными методами. Теперь возьмем военную составляющую. Известно, что Литва – это член НАТО. На территории Литвы находятся натовские подразделения, тяжелая и военная техника, находится аэродром Зокняй под Шяуляем, на котором базируются самолеты двойного назначения НАТО. То есть которые могут нести на борту не только обычные виды вооружений, но и ядерные авиабомбы", – пояснил эксперт.

По словам Козина, в том числе НАТО пытается вмешаться во внутренние вопросы Белоруссии и подстрекает оппозиционные силы внутри страны.

"Политическая составляющая крайне тревожная. Она идет со стороны тоже НАТО, которая пытается оказывать политическое давление, помимо военного, на Республику Беларусь. Пытается вмешиваться не только косвенно во внутренние дела, но и самым прямом образом – подстрекая оппозиционеров, которые пытаются захватить власть, как я сказал, незаконными способами. Хочу добавить, что Республике Беларусь не нужно стесняться своих законных действий. Она имеет полное право, как и любое другое суверенное государство, защищать свою безопасность, защищать свою территорию, суверенитет, территориальную целостность", – сказал эксперт.

Источник: Sputnik Литва

В. Козин: Литва, Польша и Украина могут устроить провокации Белоруссии

Белорусский лидер принял абсолютно правильное, логичное решение закрыть границы от этих стран

Беларусь вынуждена закрыть государственную границу с запада, заявил президент Александр Лукашенко на женском форуме "За Беларусь" в Минске.

Президент также обратился с призывом к народам Литвы, Польши и Украины "остановить своих безумных политиков и не дать развязаться войне".

В интервью Sputnik Литва член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин рассказал, что со стороны вышеперечисленных стран идет дестабилизация обстановки внутри Белоруссии, поэтому подавляющее большинство жителей страны поддерживает решение президента.

"И с военной, и с политической точки зрения принятые им решения в отношении трех названных государств являются абсолютно правильными, логичными и рациональными. По каким причинам? Потому что, во-первых, могут быть разного рода провокации со стороны Литвы, Польши и Украины в отношении Республики Беларусь. Во-вторых, может происходить инфильтрация их агентов с целью дестабилизации обстановки в Республике Беларусь. В-третьих, могут быть налажены каналы переправки денег в наличности разного рода деструктивным силам, которые окопались в Республике Беларусь с целью дальнейшей дестабилизации обстановки в нашей дружественной, братской стране. И, наконец, надо учитывать четвертый момент, государства – члены НАТО уже усилили свою военную группировку в Литве, и Польше, и в Эстонии, надо сказать, и в других государствах, которые входят в НАТО, но не примыкают к Республике Беларусь, – государства южного крыла НАТО в районе Черного моря – это Румыния и Болгария, и Центральной Европы – это Чехия и Словакия, и так далее. Поэтому резюме одно – шаг правильный, верный и то, что такое объявление законно действующим президентом Республики Беларусь Александром Лукашенко на одном из собраний было дважды, как я слышал, встречено аплодисментами, говорит о том, что подавляющая часть Республики Беларусь поддерживает это решение", – заявил эксперт.

Источник: Sputnik Литва

 

В. Козин: Литву "заела совесть" из-за больших трат на военные нужды

Министр обороны Арвидас Анушаускас заявил, что прошлое правительство допустило ошибки, планируя начать строительство нового военного полигона в Западной Литве.  По его словам, неудачное строительство нового военного объекта связано с тем, что другие министерства не участвовали в решении вопроса, а ответственность за создание полигона находилась исключительно в ведении Минобороны.

В интервью Sputnik Литва член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин назвал три причины, по которым литовский министр обороны сделал подобное заявление.

"Первая причина заключается в том, что совесть просто заела, потому что сколько можно строить на территории республики военных полигонов, военных центров, военных баз, военных стрельбищ и так далее. Вторая причина – это, наверное, все-таки попытка отмежеваться от решений, которые не были в достаточной степени согласованы с другими министерствами и ведомствами страны. А третья причина заключается в том, что Литва слишком много денег тратит на военные цели. Они уже превысили этот двухпроцентный уровень (два процента ВВП расходов на оборону. – Sputnik), который руководство НАТО ставило перед всеми государствами. <…> Огромные военные расходы, тем более в условиях, когда Литовской Республике практически никто не угрожает и не пытается захватывать ее территорию. Думаю, что этими тремя причинами можно объяснить такой поворот в позиции руководства в Минобороны Литвы", – сказал он.

Козин считает, что Литве не нужно строить ничего лишнего, а, наоборот, надо заниматься созидательным трудом и жить в мире с соседями.

Источник: радио Sputnik

 

 

В. Козин: Литовские власти отлично знали о секретных тюрьмах ЦРУ

Представители республики не могли оставаться в неведении о создании секретных объектов США на своей территории, считает профессор Академии военных наук Владимир Козин

Литовский адвокат и правозащитник Станислаус Томас заявил, что руководство Литвы должно ответить за размещение на территории балтийской республики секретной тюрьмы ЦРУ. Ранее он подал жалобу на литовское правительство в Комитет ООН по правам человека. Планируется, что решение примут 26 июля.

В интервью Sputnik Литва профессор Владимир Козин рассказал, что США не могли не сообщить Литве, что собираются разместить тайную тюрьму на ее территории.

>>Слушать аудио<<

"Конечно, они информировали друг друга. Литовские власти давали согласие на размещение секретных тюрем на своих территориях. Даже некоторые телекомпании показывали эти тюрьмы: они огорожены колючей проволокой, имеется очень серьезная внешняя охрана. Это лишний раз свидетельствует о том, что эти тюрьмы не закрыты, что они функционируют. Там прячут либо неугодных литовских граждан, которые выступают против злоупотреблений действующих властей, или тех людей, которых незаконно, транзитом, без суда и следствия, США отправляют через эти секретные тюрьмы к себе в Гуантанамо или вообще на континентальную часть США", — сказал профессор.

Источник: Sputnik Литва
 

В. Козин: Меры адекватны угрозе

Новый дивизион С-400 встанет на боевое дежурство в Крыму до конца года. В эфире радио Sputnik профессор Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин высказал уверенность в том, что это поможет сделать обстановку в регионе более стабильной.
 
Еще один дивизион новейшей зенитно-ракетной системы С-400 "Триумф" заступит на боевое дежурство в Крыму до конца года, сообщил начальник пресс-службы Южного военного округа Вадим Астафьев.
 
"В ближайшее время новый комплекс <…> заменит предыдущий ЗРК", – сказал он, уточнив, что это произойдет в рамках перевооружения.
Зенитчики Четвертой армии ВВС и ПВО начали готовить технику к маршу на станцию погрузки, откуда ЗРС поездом доставят в пункт постоянной дислокации. Куда именно – не уточняется.
 
В эфире радио Sputnik профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин высказал уверенность в том, что новый дивизион С-400 в Крыму сделает обстановку в регионе более стабильной.   
 
"Это очень хорошая новость и правильное решение. Граница РФ в этой части земного шара – морская, сухопутная, воздушная и воздушно-космическая – должна быть на самом надежном замке. Для этого будут использованы самые современные средства защиты – система С-400 носит оборонительный, а не наступательный характер, в отличие от американских систем противоракетной обороны, в пусковые установки которых могут загружаться как оборонительные, так и наступательные средства. Предпринимаемые РФ меры в этой части Европы являются адекватными той угрозе, которая инспирируется Киевом и его ближайшими покровителями – ведущими странами НАТО. Это США, Великобритания, Франция и Германия. Есть и другие натовские государства, которые разделяют подход нынешнего украинского руководства, которое спит и видит, как можно больше учинить различных провокаций. Нужно, чтобы они полностью прекратили выстраивать свои планы на то, чтобы играть очень опасную игру, в том числе с применением различных видов вооружений и военной техники", – сказал Владимир Козин.  
 
Мобильная многоканальная зенитная ракетная система С-400 "Триумф" предназначена для защиты важнейших политико-административных, экономических и военных объектов. Ее тактико-технические характеристики значительно лучше, чем у знаменитой предшественницы – С-300ПМ. При этом С-300, по оценке специалистов, существенно превосходит по эффективности зарубежные аналоги.
 
Источник: РИА Новости
 

 

В. Козин: Мирное соглашение должно включать восемь пунктов

Украина должна признать пяти территорий, которые присоединились к России, считает дипломат

Почти половина американцев считают, что властям США нужно убедить Украину заключит мир с Россией, свидетельствует опрос организации Global Affairs. Между тем украинский президент Владимир Зеленский категорично отказался от переговоров с Россией. Москва тем не менее готова в перспективе возобновить переговоры с Киевом. «ФедералПресс» разбирался, на каких выгодных для России условиях могли бы пройти эти переговоры.

Вашингтону следует продолжать оказывать поддержку Киеву считают 40% опрошенных американцев, 65% не против поставок Украине оружия, 66% выступают за экономическую помощь, а 75% выступают за санкции в отношении России. При этом 47% опрошенных полагают, что власти США должны убедить Украину заключить мир. В ноябрьском опросе приняли участие 1030 американцев, пишет Washington Post.

Россия устами министра Сергея Лаврова готова возобновить переговоры с Украиной, но Киев этого не хочет. Еще в сентябре Владимир Зеленский заявил, что диалог с Россией возможен, если у власти в нашей стране будет «не Владимир Путин», а кто-то другой. «Мы готовы к диалогу с Россией, но уже с другим президентом», – сказал украинский президент.

Между тем глава российского внешнеполитического ведомства в сентябре заявлял, что Москва никогда не отказывалась от переговоров с Киевом. Лавров подчеркивал, что «дело зависит не от нас». Призывал Киев прекратить огонь и Владимир Путин. Во время подписания договоров о принятии новых территорий в состав России российский лидер так и сказал: «Мы призываем киевский режим немедленно прекратить огонь, все боевые действия, ту *****, которую он развязал еще в 2014 году, и вернуться за стол переговоров».

Тем не менее Украина пока не намерена как-то дипломатически урегулировать конфликт. Советник офиса президента Зеленского Михаил Подоляк вообще заявил, что через шесть месяцев поедет в Ялту и расскажет о судьбе Крыма. А другой советник украинского лидера Алексей Арестович добавил, что полуостров является уязвимым объектом в обороне. «Ни марсиане, ни американцы, ни американцы с китайцами Крым не удержат, если все сделать правильно», – высказался он.

Несмотря на украинскую риторику, нельзя исключать, что стороны конфликта рано или поздно окажутся за столом переговоров. «ФедералПресс» поговорил с членом-корреспондентом Академии военных наук, дипломатом с 40-летним стажем Владимиром Козиным о том, на каких условиях Москва могла бы начать переговоры с Киевом. Мирное соглашение должно включать восемь пунктов, причем Киев должен либо принять их, либо полностью отказаться, считает эксперт. Собеседник оговорил, что сказанное им отражает его личную точку зрения. Она основывается на существующих и перспективных реалиях, а предложенные пункты вполне могут быть дополнены другими положениями.

«Первый пункт: полностью признать суверенитет и независимость всех пяти территорий, которые присоединились к России в 2014 и 2022 годы в качестве составных частей Российской Федерации», – сказал Козин.

Он пояснил, что речь идет о ДНР, ЛНР, Херсонской и Запорожской областях, а также о Республике Крым. Козин также считает, что Киев должен полностью признать новую межгосударственную границу между Россией и Украиной. «Эта граница должна проходить по верхней кромке, сопредельной линии у всех названных территорий, со всей остальной частью Украины, а остальные границы должны оставаться прежними. Соглашение должно предусматривать свободный доступ России к Приднестровью.», – добавил он.

Козин подчеркивает, что будущее соглашение должно содержать политические и юридические обязательства Украины о неприсоединении к НАТО и другим военным союзам, отказ от строительства военных баз этого агрессивного пакта на украинской территории. Кроме этого, Киев не должен предоставлять любые военные и невоенные объекты в стране для вооруженных сил Североатлантического альянса.

«Четвертый пункт: Украина должна отказаться от собственных разработок и создания, а также от приобретения и размещения ядерного оружия и средств его доставки от иностранных государств в любой форме и любых видов базирования. А также не обстреливать атомные электростанции или гражданские объекты, которые используют радиоактивные материалы для научных целей», – сказал экс-дипломат. Он также считает важным, чтобы Украина отказалась от приобретения любых вариантов зарубежных систем ПРО и гиперзвуковых систем.

Еще одним пунктом соглашения, по мнению Козина, должен стать роспуск всех неонацистских и ультранационалистических группировок и формирований на территории Украины. В шестом пункте член-корреспондент Академии военных наук предлагает ограничить численность вооруженных сил Украины общим количеством в 50 тысяч человек, а также ее ВВС и ВМС определенным количеством вооружений. «Это не позволит Украине совершать масштабную агрессию или нападение на сопредельные страны, например на Российскую Федерацию и Республику Беларусь, а также обеспечить демилитаризацию украинского государства, которое начало и по-прежнему продолжает комбинированную с НАТО агрессию – сначала против Донбасса, а затем и против России», – пояснил эксперт.

Седьмым пунктом Козин предлагает обеспечить украинской стороной выплату компенсаций «всем гражданам Российской Федерации, а также гражданам пяти новых территорий за утрату жизни, получение ранений, частичное или полное разрушение их жилищ и объектов социальной и критически важной инфраструктуры, начиная с конца февраля 2014 года».

«Где они возьмут деньги на эти цели – это не наше дело. Пусть берут кредиты у Евросоюза и своих друзей, это нас не волнует. Бог подаст. Не надо было начинать преступную агрессию и проводить политику геноцида на Донбассе с 2014 года», – заметил эксперт.

Козин также считает, что Украина должна выплатить России все финансовые, торговые и экономические долги и займы, которые были заимствованы с 1991 года после распада СССР. Эксперт напомнил, что Киев до 2014 года получил от Москвы свыше 200 млрд долларов. Кроме того, нельзя забывать о воровстве газа во время его транзита в Европу и так далее, заметил он.

«Любые переговоры по этим пунктам могут состоятся только после того, как Украина в принципе согласится со всеми названными положениями и будет готова принять их в едином пакете», – добавил член-корреспондент Академии военных наук.

При этом Козин полагает, что пока у власти находится Владимир Зеленский, переговоры, которые проводились в феврале-марте этого года, должны быть изменены и нацелены на конкретный результат, подвергающийся проверке. Кроме того, такое соглашение может предусматривать государственную ответственность Украины за его нарушение или невыполнение. Эксперт подчеркнул, что подобного положения не было в минских соглашениях, что стало их крупнейшим недостатком.

«Даже американцы заявили, что не могут оказать на Зеленского влияние, чтобы он мог возобновить прежние переговоры с российской стороной или поддержать их новый формат», – добавил он.

Источник: «ФедералПресс»

 

 

В. Козин: Московская конференция по безопасности – действительно лучшая

Военный и политический эксперт комментирует заявления НАТО о Московской конференции по безопасности.

Военный блок НАТО не считает Московскую конференцию по безопасности, которая пройдет 4-5 апреля, конструктивной платформой для диалога, сообщает РИА Новости.

Ранее заместитель министра обороны России Александр Фомин отметил, что на Московскую конференцию по международной безопасности приедут по меньшей мере 34 министра обороны, при этом в Армейских международных играх будут участвовать 35 стран.

О формате Московской конференции по безопасности в эфире радио Sputnik говорит профессор академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин.

>>слушать аудио<<

"В десятки раз Московская конференция по безопасности лучше, чем любая из прошедших в те же годы мюнхенских конференций по безопасности. На Мюнхенской конференции по безопасности практически отсутствуют военные представители, как в лагере выступающих, так и среди высокопоставленных гостей. Пусть приезжают, послушают. Кстати, раньше представители НАТО чаще появлялись на московских конференциях", — сказал эксперт.

Источник: радио Sputnik  

 

 

В. Козин: Мотивы сообщения о "тайных потерях" РФ в Сирии очевидны

Минобороны РФ опровергло данные Reuters о числе погибших в Сирии военных. В эфире радио Sputnik военный эксперт Владимир Козин выразил мнение, что агентство намеренно вводит своих читателей в заблуждение.

Официальный представитель Минобороны РФ генерал-майор Игорь Конашенков опроверг данные британского агентства Reuters о количестве погибших в Сирии российских военнослужащих.

Ранее Reuters опубликовало статью о росте потерь среди российских военных в Сирии. По официальным данным, в арабской республике с начала года погибли десять российских военных. Однако, по подсчетам Reuters, речь идет как минимум о 40 россиянах, среди них 21 частный военный специалист и 17 военных, статус еще двоих установить не удалось.

По словам Игоря Конашенкова, британское агентство не в первый раз любыми способами пытается дискредитировать российскую операцию в Сирии, не исключением стала статья о "тайных потерях" среди военных.

"Снова в качестве источников, – какие-то слухи, данные соцсетей и выдуманные разговоры с якобы "запуганными" анонимными "родственниками и знакомыми", – констатировал он.

Конашенков подчеркнул, что в публикации "насаждается миф о неких погибших "контрактниках" из "таинственной" организации".

"Никаких якобы "тайных" захоронений российских военнослужащих, погибших в Сирии, не было и нет. Попытки выдать за них частных лиц, не имеющих отношения к Вооруженным Силам и тем более к операции в Сирии – лживы от начала до конца", – добавил он.

Профессор Академии военных наук РФ, военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik выразил мнение, что агентство Reuters намеренно вводит своих читателей в заблуждение.

"Российская сторона объявляла о наших потерях – военнослужащих и вольнонаемных, честно заявляя о том, что такие потери в Сирии имели место. Они были в результате огня террористов. Был случай, когда турецкий F-16 сбил российский самолет, и наш летчик погиб. Были обстрелы полевого госпиталя. Был случай, когда корректировщик огня – российский военнослужащий – вызвал огонь на себя, чтобы уничтожить как можно больше террористов. Когда идут боевые действия, жертвы, трагические случаи неизбежны. Но мотивы Reuters понятны: хотят подорвать моральный дух, подорвать основу нашего присутствия в Сирии  – противодействие различным террористическим организациям, которые остаются на сирийской земле, вызвать определенное недовольство", – сказал Владимир Козин.

Однако этого сделать не удастся, уверен военный эксперт.

"Замечу, что за время действия российских ВКС в САР нам, в отличие от западной коалиции, удалось добиться значительных успехов в борьбе с террористическими формированиями. Поэтому процесс выдавливания террористов и их уничтожение, конечно, будет продолжен. Российский народ скорбит по поводу гибели наших военных в Сирии. Их подвиг никогда не будет забыт. Они выполняли благое дело, и уже сегодня можно с уверенностью сказать, что "грандиозные" планы террористов двинуться в направлении России с территории Сирии не состоятся", – сказал Владимир Козин.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: Мы должны защитить своих братьев и сестер на Донбассе

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “Информационный канал” на радио “Говорит Москва”.


В.П. Козин: «У России развязаны руки для свободы действий с целью защиты граждан ДНР и ЛНР. Она не участник Минских соглашений. От них отказался Киев на высшем уровне – на уровне президента. Киев и фактически не выполняет эту договоренность и не собирается ее выполнять».

 


Эфир от 18 февраля 2022г.

В. Козин: Мы нуждаемся в дополнительных вооруженных силах

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе «Умные парни» на радио «Говорит Москва».

Участники обсуждают проблематику предложений США от 2 июня по  вопросу ДСНВ и агрессию Украины и НАТО против России.

Эфир от 2 июня 2023г.

 

В. Козин: Мы просто обязаны противостоять!

Военный эксперт  счел необходимым политически ограничить США за поставки ПРО Украине

России стоит применить в отношении Соединенных Штатов Америки политические и экономические ограничения и напомнить о решении, которое запрещает поставлять любые виды вооружений и военной техники в зоны, где ведутся боевые действия, считает член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин. В разговоре с «Лентой.ру» он отреагировал на планы США поставить на Украину новые системы противоракетной обороны (ПРО) и перечислил последствия этого решения.

Угроза для авиации

США намерены поставить ПРО средней и большой дальности на Украину. Об этом стало известно CNN от источников в американской администрации. По информации телеканала, Вашингтон может объявить о своем решении на этой неделе. Возможно, Киеву запланируют поставить и другие виды военной помощи, включая контрбатарейные радары и боеприпасы, отметил собеседник CNN.


Мы просто обязаны противостоять! Как только самолет тяжелой военно-транспортной авиации США или НАТО пересекает границу Западной Европы с Украиной, такие самолеты сразу же должны уничтожаться


«Потому что поток идет сначала авиасредствами, а потом уже дальше расползается по различным районам Украины», — завил Козин. Военный эксперт указал на то, что говорить о дальности пока не представляется возможным, потому что это зависит от класса и вида оружия.


Естественно, это не приведет к прекращению нашей специальной военной операции. Но может представлять угрозу и для нашей авиации, и для наших ракетных систем


«Мы знаем по оперативному комплексу системы ПРО в Румынии, которые уже переведены на боевое дежурство несколько лет назад, что могут загружаться системы и чисто оборонительные, и наступательные. Наступательные — это крылатые ракеты класса «Томагавк», которые могут нести и обычные, и ядерные виды вооружений», — сообщил он.

Недопустимые поставки

Владимир Козин убежден, что к новости о поставках нужно отнестись серьезно и сделать американцам предупреждение о недопустимости таких поставок.

«Нам нужно напомнить США о решении Организации по безопасности и сотрудничеству в Европе, которое запрещает поставлять любые виды вооружений и военной техники в зоны, где ведутся боевые действия. Естественно, отозвать нашего посла Анатолия Антонова из Вашингтона для консультации в Москву. Тем самым понизить уровень нашего представительства в Америке. И применить различные меры торгово-экономического воздействия в отношении США», — считает эксперт.

Военный эксперт считает, что помимо политического воздействия на США, необходимо прекратить поставку стратегического сырья и материалов в Америку.

Решения НАТО

В ближайшее время пройдет саммит НАТО, и нужно смотреть за решениями, которые будут там приниматься, полагает Козин.

«Но ждать милости от природы мы не можем. Мы должны действовать очень активно и наступательно. Потому что это оружие будет убивать наших людей, наших летчиков, граждан Украины, которые симпатизируют Киеву и не симпатизируют», — заключил он.

По подсчетам Белого дома, общая сумма американской военной помощи Украине с начала президентского срока Джо Байдена составила около 6,8 миллиарда долларов. При этом значительная часть этих средств была выделена после 24 февраля 2022 года, когда президент России Владимир Путин объявил о начале специальной военной операции на Украине.

Источник: Лента.ру

 

В. Козин: Мы сделали всё правильно, начав СВО

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО  в программе “ОТРажение” на канале ОТР.

Эфир от 9 июня 2023г.

 

В. Козин: Мы – великая воздушная держава

Выступление ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе “Открытый эфир” на телеканале "Звезда".

Мирная демонстрация: в Минске открылась международная выставка военной техники Milex-2019. 10 стран, 170 компаний и 220 эксклюзивных образцов вооружения из России. К каким новейшим разработкам особое внимание?

«Белых лебедей» станет больше? Владимир Путин заявил, что заказ на стратегические бомбардировщики Ту-160 может вырасти. 46 мировых рекордов, самый крупный и самый мощный сверхзвуковой самолет в истории авиации. Какие секреты скрывает стальная птица, которую американцы боятся как огня?

Арктический спецназ. Впервые на телевидении - демонстрация возможностей уникального спецподразделения Минобороны. Его называют «первым отрядом». О жизни и службе в условиях ледяной пустыни - эксклюзив автора и ведущего программы «Военная приемка» Алексея Егорова.

Шантаж Трампа или шаг к апокалипсису? В США в нарушение всех конвенций разрабатывают ядерные вооружения малой мощности. Самое опасное - горячие головы в Пентагоне уже готовы нанести удар! Зачем Америка толкает мир на грань катастрофы и какой регион в случае начала конфликта будет стерт с лица земли первым?

Исход от безысходности. Немцы в панике бегут из Германии. Социологи выдают страшные цифры - эмигрировать намерен каждый второй. Почему сильнейшая экономика Европы теряет коренное население? И кто приходит на его место?

Эфир от 16 мая 2019г.

В. Козин: НАТО вмешается в конфликт, если ситуация в Косове дойдет до войны

Вечером 31 июля Балканский регион вновь превратился в "пороховую бочку Европы".

Сербия и Косово находились на грани военного конфликта, и эта угроза не ушла окончательно, ведь Косово продолжит попытки дестабилизации ситуации, считает ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО, член-корреспондент Российской Академии военных наук Владимир Козин.

В чем суть вновь разгорающегося конфликта в Косове? Насколько реален военный сценарий его решения? Вмешается ли в конфликт НАТО, и сможет ли Россия помочь сербам? Обо всем этом смотрите в нашем интервью.

В. Козин: НАТО ещё никогда не стягивал столько сил к границам России

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе “Открытый эфир” на канале “Звезда”.

Альянс значительно расширил объемы модернизации и наращивания всех трех видов ударных боевых средств “передового базирования” , выдвинутых к территории Российской Федерации, которые в перспективе будут  усилены ударными космическими вооружениями. Государства, являющиеся участниками Североатлантического союза, заложили огромные и беспрецедентные по объему перспективные военные расходы, которые пойдут не на укрепление стратегической стабильности в мире, а наоборот будут содействовать её дальнейшему подрыву и ослаблению глобальной безопасности.

Эфир от 4 декабря 2019г.

В. Козин: НАТО придется срочно где-то "добывать" замену "Русланам"

Россия перестанет предоставлять НАТО самолеты Ан-124 "Руслан", сообщили СМИ. Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik отметил, что отказ в самолетах может доставить альянсу определенные сложности.

Российская грузовая авиакомпания "Волга-Днепр" до конца года прекратит предоставлять НАТО грузовые самолеты Ан-124, сообщает французское издание Challenges со ссылкой на свои источники.

Речь идет о проекте SALIS (Strategic Airlift International Solution), в рамках которого в 2006 году было создано совместное предприятие украинских "Авиалиний Антонова" и российской "Волга-Днепр". Всего крупные негабаритные грузы альянса перевозили 17 "Русланов".

По данным издания, российская сторона приняла это решение в ответ на усиление американских санкций.

В статье подчеркивается, что решение компании "Волга-Днепр" станет ощутимым ударом для французской армии, так как она остается зависимой от "Русланов" в вопросах транспортировки вертолетов и танков, несмотря на наличие самолета Airbus A400M.

Ан-124-100 "Руслан" был разработан в первой половине 1980-х годов в ОКБ Антонова совместно с ведущими союзными НИИ, предприятиями, организациями авиационной промышленности и министерствами. Над его созданием работал весь Советский Союз.

В эфире радио Sputnik профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин высказал мнение, что отказ от поставок "Русланов" создаст определенные сложности для альянса.

"Думаю, что крупных отрицательных последствий на страны НАТО этот отказ не окажет, но им придется срочно где-то добывать самолеты такого класса. Если страны Евросоюза, которые входят и в Североатлантический союз, вводят антироссийские санкции, то, и РФ, естественно, не должна способствовать укреплению военного потенциала НАТО. К тому же любой отказ от поставки военной техники альянсу – это плюс в деле укрепления обороноспособности Российской Федерации. Так что считаю, что впредь мы должны принимать решения в этом направлении, и как можно чаще. Потому что поток санкций против нас идет нескончаемой лавиной. Соответственно, и мы должны реагировать", – сказал Владимир Козин.

Источник: РИА Новости

 

 

В. Козин: НАТО хочет больше денег, игнорируя нужды заболевших

НАТО обеспечила рост военных инвестиций, в прошлом году расходы стран - участниц альянса повысились на 4,6%, отчитался генсек блока Йенс Столтенберг в ходе ежегодного доклада. Он выразил надежду, что эта тенденция сохранится, несмотря на охватившую мир пандемию коронавируса.

Заявление Столтенберга полностью соответствует той линии, которую альянс выработал на большом саммите 2018 года в Брюсселе, отметил в эфире радио Sputnik профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин.

"В Брюсселе был запланирован рост расходов с 2% до 4% ВВП. НАТО перед собой поставила грандиозную задачу - укрепить свой потенциал в глобальном измерении: ракетно-ядерное оружие и средства его доставки, противоракетную оборону и силы общего назначения, обычные виды вооружений", - отметил Козин.

По сути, в зону жизненно важных интересов альянс превратил весь земной шар. "Должно обслуживаться огромное количество опорных пунктов и военных баз - это требует огромных денежных вливаний. Столтенберг своим заявлением признает, что это действительно так", - подчеркнул Козин.

НАТО под надуманным предлогом российской агрессии не перестает наращивать военное присутствие у границ РФ. Начиная с 2016 года, в Латвии, Литве, Эстонии и Польше было размещено четыре батальона многонациональных сил альянса общей численностью свыше 4,8 тысячи военнослужащих.

Министр обороны РФ Сергей Шойгу подчеркивал, что во время учений численность личного состава сил НАТО у российских границ возрастает на порядок. В Москве неоднократно заявляли, что не имеют наступательных планов ни в одном из регионов. Как отмечал глава МИД РФ Сергей Лавров, в НАТО об этом прекрасно знают, но пользуются поводом, чтобы разместить побольше техники и военнослужащих у границ РФ.

Пандемия коронавируса COVID-19, начавшаяся в канун 2020 года в Китае, охватила к настоящему моменту 167 стран. Зарегистрирован 343 421 случай заболевания, сообщается о 14 790 летальных исходах и 98 896 излечившихся. Летальность от COVID-19 превысила 4,3%. В Европе очагом пандемии признана Италия, где летальность достигла 9,2%.

Источник: Sputnik

В. Козин: На объективность доклада МАГАТЭ рассчитывать особо не приходится

Ядерная ловушка для русских: карта главной спецоперации Киева

Многие обозреватели и эксперты поспешили объяснить неудачную операцию Киева приступом безумия, обуявшим командование ВСУ. Однако при детальном анализе операции видно, что нападение на Запорожскую АЭС имело хорошие шансы на успех.

Русская армия больше недели героически отбивает "мясное" наступление Вооружённых сил Украины (ВСУ). Наши десантники, спецназовцы, морпехи и мобилизованные резервисты из ДНР при поддержке авиации и артиллерии одну за другой выкашивают волны наступающей украинской пехоты, жгут десятки танков и бронетранспортёров. По предварительным, далеко не полным данным речь идёт о практически полном разгроме примерно четырёх механизированных бригад ВСУ.

В тени этой грандиозной могилизации свидомых вояк осталась попытка украинского спецназа захватить крупнейшую атомную электростанцию Европы – Запорожскую АЭС. Наши обозреватели склонны объяснять эту операцию в основном тем, что украинское командование отравилось собственной пропагандой: уверовало в слабость и разгильдяйство русских и в колоссальное превосходство украинского спецназа.

На деле же план, при всей его авантюрности, был вполне рационален. Более того, он являлся весьма хитрой спецоперацией, на стыке военного искусства и политических интриг. Судя по всему, его органичной частью был приезд в Запорожье миссии Международного агентства по атомной энергии (МАГАТЭ). А успех должен был повлечь стратегические последствия, сопоставимые с захватом Херсона (которого украинская армия не сможет добиться, несмотря ни на какие потери), а, возможно, и превзойти их.

Лодки, берег и красная вода Днепра

1 сентября миссия МАГАТЭ должна была прибыть на Запорожскую АЭС. Ту самую, которая уже месяц, с 5 августа, практически беспрерывно подвергается огню украинской артиллерии.

Согласование инспекции проходило тяжело. Киев и ООН потребовали, чтобы инспекторы заезжали на станцию с украинской территории, то есть с пересечением линии фронта. Москва согласилась на это условие, так как прибытие иностранных инспекторов позволяло надеяться, что мировое сообщество наконец-то узнает правду, кто же на самом деле обстреливает ядерный объект и создаёт угрозу радиационной катастрофы континентального масштаба.

В ночь на 1 сентября ВСУ атаковали АЭС несколькими дронами-камикадзе. Беспилотники были подавлены комплексом РЭБ, но шуму наделать успели.

В 5:20 Энергодар подвергся жесточайшему артиллерийскому удару. Снаряды рвались в жилых кварталах, на побережье Каховского водохранилища.

Через час, в 6:20, украинский спецназ начал высадку. По данным Минобороны России, противник высадился в трёх километрах северо-восточнее АЭС с семи быстроходных лодок. Общая численность десанта составила около 60 человек. На берег они вышли двумя отдельными группами, после чего попытались штурмовать АЭС, но были блокированы охраняющим станцию подразделением Росгвардии. Диверсантов прижали к зоне высадки, после чего по ним начала работать артиллерия. Затем к ликвидации элитного украинского спецназа подключились и вертолёты Ка-52.

Пока шел бой, украинская артиллерия обстреляла место, куда к восьми утра должна была прибыть делегация МАГАТЭ. Около 7:00 из Никопольского речного порта вышли две самоходные баржи, на каждой из которых находилось до 140 бойцов. Это была вторая волна десанта. Баржам предстояло преодолеть порядка 12 км, но на траверзе посёлка Водяное, всего в нескольких километрах от цели, суда были обстреляны и потоплены. Изначально сообщалось, что по ним отработала артиллерия; позже специалисты предположили, что самотопы стали добычей наших "Аллигаторов". В Сети появилось фото одной из барж, севшей на мель в нескольких сотнях метров от берега.

Вслед за этим русская артиллерия нанесла удар по Никополю, уничтожив около 50 украинских спецназовцев, которые должны были составить третью волну десанта.

Удивительно, но и после такого разгрома украинское командование не оставило намерения овладеть станцией. Поздним вечером пятницы, 2 сентября, украинцы вновь попытались высадить десант. По данным Минобороны России, атака произошла около одиннадцати вечера с применением 42 (!) моторных лодок, где могли находиться до 250 бойцов.

По десанту были нанесены удары ВКС России четырьмя Су-30 и двумя вертолётами Ка-52, в результате которых уничтожено 20 катеров и лодок. Остальные лодки и катера развернулись и ушли в направлении украинского берега, – рассказали в ведомстве.

По месту, где происходила разгрузка выживших после неудачного набега украинских военных, был нанесён артиллерийский удар 203-миллиметровыми орудиями "Малка".

Операция "Оверлорденко": не так смешно, как кажется

Сразу после разгрома первого десанта многие военные обозреватели поспешили покрутить пальцем у виска: мол, совсем с ума сошли тарасы! Чего удумали, АЭС захватывать!

Если, однако, рассмотреть операцию не с высоты послезнания, а в контексте последних дней августа, с учётом ожидавшегося прибытия миссии МАГАТЭ, план перестаёт выглядеть безумным. Более того, вырисовывается весьма изящная и циничная операция, где высоколобые инспекторы-ядерщики, независимо от своего желания, органично дополняли боевых зомби киевского режима.

Рассмотрим по порядку, чего в реальности добивались украинские военные на каждом этапе операции.

Первое: в ночь перед прибытием инспекторов станция подвергается удару дронов-камикадзе. Реального ущерба АЭС они причинить не могут, но создают шум и держат в напряжении персонал и охрану. Уставшие люди менее внимательны и медленнее реагируют на происходящее.

В пять утра ВСУ начинают артобстрел. Цель очевидна – зачистить побережье от секретов и засад, что могут там располагаться, а также пробить проход в минном поле, которое могли выставить русские. Обстрел берега маскируется одновременным ударом по городу. Если бы украинская артиллерия начала ни с того ни с сего бить по берегу, это бы привлекло внимание к будущему месту высадки. А вот во время обстрела Энергодара на это никто не обратил внимания. В крайнем случае списали бы на то, что одна из украинских батарей работает с недолётом. Очень умный ход, хотя и совершенно людоедский.

Примерно через полчаса на зачищенный артиллеристами пятачок высаживается первая группа диверсантов. При этом спецназовцы выходят на берег двумя группами. Если одна из них попадёт в засаду или напорется на мины – вторая всё равно сможет зацепиться за землю и поможет товарищам огнём. То есть перед нами опять весьма толковое и выверенное решение.

Критики украинского "Оверлорда" отмечали, что на станции несколько поясов безопасности, а у защитников АЭС была бронетехника, так что атака была заранее обречена.

Однако если вспомнить, с каким упорством Киев верещал о расположении на АЭС тяжёлого вооружения, можно быть уверенным: даже если на станции было что-то серьёзное (например танк), то перед приездом миссии МАГАТЭ его почти наверняка отправили в поля, просто чтобы не давать оснований для кривотолков и спекуляций.

При этом надо понимать, что для современных гранатомётов ни БТР, ни БМП с их картонной бронёй не являются трудной целью. Поэтому на деле десант имел возможность вести бой против сил, которые могли выставить против них защитники АЭС.

И самое главное – группа из 60 человек не имела задачи штурмовать АЭС. Она должна была вытащить на себя мобильный резерв охраны станции. Попытка её уничтожения автоматически означала начало боя к северу от АЭС. А в это время… с юга к станции приближались две баржи с 240 украинцами и, скорее всего, горой тяжёлого стрелкового оружия. Замысел украинского командования очень хорошо виден на схеме.

Многие считают, что взять штурмом АЭС невозможно. Это мнение – результат того, что люди склонны путать невозможное с неразумным. Ещё пару месяцев назад никто в мире не считал, что действующую АЭС или хранилище ядерных отходов можно обстреливать из гаубиц. Однако киевский режим показал, что может делать это систематически.

На самом же деле реальность такова, что в бою на технологически опасном объекте преимущество получает не та сторона, которая находится в обороне, и даже не более подготовленное или многочисленное подразделение. А более "отмороженное". Кто готов пойти на больший риск, наплевать на последствия разрушения опасных объектов, тот и в дамках.

Ещё до начала спецоперации было известно, что украинские военные широко применяют американские психотропные препараты, заглушающие боль и страх. Совершенно очевидно, что для такого ответственного задания ВСУ не только подобрало наиболее подготовленный человеческий материал, но и по самые уши накачало участников высадки "химией".

Иными словами, украинские военные имели реальный шанс зайти на территорию АЭС и взять под контроль как минимум её часть. И выполнить эту задачу должна была вторая волна десанта на баржах.

Вскрытый шах: миссия МАГАТЭ вступает в игру

Около восьми утра украинская артиллерия обстреляла район ожидаемого прибытия инспекторов, дав им возможность немного отсрочить приезд, а десанту – дополнительное время на бои внутри АЭС.

Допустим, что украинский план сработал. Высаженный к северу от АЭС отряд уничтожен, зато причалившие баржи успели разгрузить свои штурмовые группы, а те сумели зайти на станцию и частично взять её под контроль. В это время к проходной АЭС подъезжает конвой МАГАТЭ. В каком положении оказывается Россия?

Не пускать миссию, которую столько звали, – значит расписаться сразу во всех обвинениях, что предъявляли русским украинская и западная пропаганда, вплоть до шизофренических самообстрелов. Более того, не пустив инспекторов, Россия гарантированно брала бы на себя вину за будущую ядерную катастрофу или радиационную утечку (уж за украинцами в этом случае дело бы не заржавело).

Следовательно, инспекторов пришлось бы пустить. Но как тогда вести боевые действия? С риском убить кого-то из иностранных специалистов, которых сами же звали на АЭС? Исключено. До сих пор Москва делала всё возможное, чтобы не ущемлять в ходе спецоперации интересы третьих стран. То есть боевые действия на АЭС в присутствии международных наблюдателей гарантированно сворачивались бы.

В свою очередь, инспекторы увидели бы следующую картину: станция имеет повсеместные следы обстрелов, многие объекты инфраструктуры уничтожены, и при этом она находится под контролем украинских военных (наших неполживые европейцы, разумеется, не заметили бы). Естественно, из этого бы тут же сделали вывод, что это злые русские обстреливают АЭС!

Именно на такой вердикт и рассчитывал Киев. В дальнейшем самым вероятным разрешением ситуации стало бы прекращение боевых действий, создание демилитаризованной зоны и передача АЭС под контроль того же МАГАТЭ, а то и украинского Энергоатома. По результату операции Киев сохранил бы под своим контролем станцию, обеспечивающую почти половину генерации украинской атомной энергии и позволяющую продавать электричество в Европу. А демилитаризованная зона вокруг неё прикрыла бы фланг всей южной группировки ВСУ.

Нет врага – нет проблемы

К счастью, наши росгвардейцы, вертолётчики и артиллеристы сумели перебить украинский спецназ, утопив большую его часть в Днепре. Как им это удалось? Два предположения: грамотно налаженная оборона станции и качественная работа разведки. На последнее указывает то, что после уничтожения барж наша артиллерия отработала по причалам Никополя, где находились до 50 спецназовцев врага, собиравшихся пойти в усиление второй группе. То есть в ходе боя об их нахождении на другом берегу Каховского водохранилища уже было известно.

О том, что Украина и МАГАТЭ играли в этой операции на одной стороне, свидетельствует множество мелких моментов в риторике сторон. После того как инспекторы прибыли на станцию, полностью находившуюся под контролем русских и при этом покрытую свежими следами обстрелов, стало известно, что Россия запрашивает заседание Совета безопасности ООН с участием главы МАГАТЭ Рафаэля Гросси и генсека ООН Антониу Гутерриша. Это сразу поставило западных союзников в крайне неприятное положение: пропагандисты Зеленского могут сколько угодно верещать про самообстрелы "тупых орков", но на заседании Совбеза эту версию озвучивать уже просто невозможно.

Поэтому-то Зеленский поспешил заявить, что огорчён тем, что в составе миссии не было журналистов, а советник главы его офиса Михаил Подоляк и вовсе обвинил МАГАТЭ в трусости и непрофессионализме:

Международные институты и посреднические миссии выглядят крайне неэффективно, крайне трусливо и крайне непрофессионально. Они никогда не были готовы работать в экстремальных условиях. Ты им не доверяешь уже на входе.

То есть киевский режим сразу попытался дистанцироваться от ещё не высказанных выводов комиссии. Просто потому, что украинское руководство поняло, что их комбинация поворачивается против них самих.

Впрочем, они явно недооценили гибкость западных покровителей. После целого дня напряжённых раздумий окружение Гутерриша родило практически гениальный контрход: инспекторам МАГАТЭ и охранявшим их сотрудникам службы безопасности ООН фактически запретили выносить суждения о характере и происхождении повреждений, обнаруженных на АЭС.

Это люди, которые обеспечивают безопасность. Они там не затем, чтобы заниматься баллистикой. У них нет ни подходящей экспертизы, ни мандата для проведения баллистической экспертизы. Это не их работа. Они должны охранять наших людей, – заявил журналистам официальный представитель генсека ООН Стефан Дюжаррик.

Иными словами, в представлении Гутерриша и его окружения, отвечая на вопросы России, глава МАГАТЭ подтвердит, что АЭС сильно пострадала. А на уточняющий вопрос, кто же натворил это паскудство, просто разведёт руками: мол, не могу знать, не было у меня мандата на проведение баллистической экспертизы. Хотите ответов – согласовывайте новую миссию.

Удивительно, но уже 2 сентября украинский Генштаб внезапно признал, что ВСУ обстреливают Энергодар. Месяцами тарасы вопили про "самообстрелы" русских, а тут вдруг сообщили о неких военных целях на территории города, по которым якобы и велась стрельба.

Удивительно, как на людей влияет разгромленный десант. На деле же это заявление – лишь закладка под то, чтобы чуть позже признать, что "некоторые" украинские снаряды "случайно" залетали на территорию АЭС. В преддверии ожидаемо неудобного доклада Гросси партнёры кинулись со всех сторон стелить соломку, и по этой суете примерно понятен контур их первоначального замысла.

Это ещё не победа

Россия смогла разрушить вражеские планы, однако праздновать победу пока рано. Комментируя Царьграду развитие ситуации, член-корреспондент Академии естественных наук и Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин отметил: большое значение будет иметь доклад, сделанный главой МАГАТЭ. А на его объективность России рассчитывать особо не приходится.

Мы должны сначала выслушать этот доклад, в каком виде он будет преподнесён мировому сообществу. Но те заявления, которые Гросси делал вскоре после возвращения, показывают, что он не будет определять, кто наносил удары артиллерийскими снарядами по ЗАЭС, – констатировал Козин.

Также эксперт отметил, что большое значение будет иметь дальнейшее урегулирование проблемы. "Запад ставит вопрос о том, что войска России должны покинуть ЗАЭС, а их место должны занять украинские вооружённые силы. Если это произойдёт, у Киева будут развязаны руки, чтобы совершить любые провокации. Странно, что мировое сообщество не видит этих данных и вообще ведёт себя очень странно. Я полагаю, что в этих условиях Россия должна усилить информационное обеспечение спецоперации", – подытожил Козин в разговоре с Царьградом.

Что с того?

В данной ситуации Москва переиграла и Киев, и состоявшее с ним в сговоре МАГАТЭ. Как минимум контроль за станцией остался за нашей стороной. О работе энергоблоков, поставках электричества на Украину и далее в Европу приходит противоречивая информация, но в общем и целом не вызывает сомнений, что "рубильник" находится под контролем Москвы.

Тем не менее необходимо понимать и помнить, что нам противостоит очень умный и решительный враг, на стороне которого играют и ООН, и все международные организации. А вот союзников у России по-прежнему двое: армия и флот. И только от их мощи и эффективности зависит, в чём нас могут – или не могут – обвинить.

Источник: Царьград

 

В. Козин: На учения НАТО российских наблюдателей вообще не приглашают

Почему НАТО скрывает от России военные учения в Латвии

Россия должна проявлять большую открытость в вопросе проведения учений в Балтийском регионе, заявил государственный секретарь Минобороны Латвии Янис Гарисонс. По его словам, это необходимо в целях снижения напряженности и для этого "есть разные варианты", передает RT.

Россия максимально открыта при проведении военных учений как для своих союзников, так и для потенциальных противников - блока НАТО, заявил в интервью Sputnik Латвия Владимир Козин, член научного совета Национального института исследований глобальной безопасности, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России.

>>аудиофайл<<

"Москва всегда приглашает на учения наблюдателей из Североатлантического альянса, правда, они иногда отказываются. С другой стороны, когда проходят учения НАТО, российских наблюдателей вообще не приглашают, в том числе и в страны Балтии. Происходит это по одной простой причине - все учения альянса в Прибалтике носят ярко выраженный антироссийский и антибелорусский характер. На них отрабатываются наступательные операции и захват других территорий", - констатировал Козин.

Эксперт подчеркнул, что практически все учения НАТО в последнее время начинаются с применения тяжелых, но все-таки обычных видов вооружений, и заканчиваются, как правило, с использованием тактического ядерного оружия.

"Все три аэродрома на территории Прибалтики: Лиелварде в Латвии, Зокняй в Литве и Эмари в Эстонии - реконструированы под принятие тактической и стратегической авиации, которая может нести не только обычные виды вооружений, но и ядерное оружие", - напомнил Козин.

На саммите в 2016 году НАТО приняла решение в связи с якобы возросшей "агрессией" со стороны России увеличить военное присутствие в странах Восточной Европы. По одному батальону международных сил альянс разместил в Латвии, Эстонии, Литве и Польше. Численность дислоцированного здесь международного контингента превышает 4,8 тысячи военнослужащих.

Министр обороны РФ Сергей Шойгу заявлял о значительном росте числа военных учений у границ России. По его оценке, количество солдат НАТО в Прибалтике, Польше, Румынии и Болгарии с 2015 года увеличилось с 2 тысяч до 15 тысяч, а во время учений группировка возрастает до 40-60 тысяч военнослужащих.

НАТО продолжает стягивать силы к российским границам, несмотря на то, что Москва неоднократно заявляла об отсутствии наступательных планов в Балтийском регионе - как и в любом другом регионе мира. Руководству НАТО об этом прекрасно известно, отмечал глава МИД РФ Сергей Лавров, однако боевые силы и техника неустанно стягиваются к границам РФ под предлогом российской "агрессии". Действия альянса вынуждают Россию принимать ответные меры для укрепления собственной безопасности, заявлял, в свою очередь, Шойгу.

Источник: Sputnik Латвия

 

 

В. Козин: Нас ждет Армагеддон

США заставили Северную Корею стать ядерной державой

В сложившихся условиях странам нужно принять решение о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе, а иначе нас ждет Армагеддон, член-корреспондент Академии Военных наук России Владимир Козин в беседе с Telegram-каналом «Радиоточка НСН».

Ранее стало известно, что власти КНДР приняли закон о статусе ядерного государства. Лидер Северной Кореи Ким Чен Ын заявил, что никогда не откажется от ядерного оружия, а переговоры по денуклеаризации не возобновятся. Пхеньян может нанести ядерный удар по напавшему на КНДР противнику, если сочтет угрозы с его стороны неизбежной. Козин говорит, что такое решение вызовет критику в западных ядерных странах, но КНДР к разработке подобного оружия подтолкнули США.

«Северная Корея стала девятым государством, обладающим ядерным оружием, и к этому их под подтолкнула Америка. Фактически заставили своими постоянным угрозами создать и испытать КНДР ядерное оружие. Еще одна деталь – Северная Корея будет говорить, что ядерная доктрина страны в точности повторяет документ США. Американский президент единолично может принимать решение о применении ядерного оружия. Ким Чен Ын может поступить также. В доктрине США также прописано, что страна может применить ядерное оружие в первом ударе. Северная Корея тоже закрепила за собой это право», - сказал Козин.

Собеседник «Радиоточки НСН» отметил, что право применения ядерного оружия в первом ударе является серьезным недостатком всех ядерных доктрин.

«Исключения – Россия и Китай, где нет концепции нанесения ядерного удара. В сложившихся условиях ядерным государствам нужно принять решение о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе. Иначе это приведет к эскалации, а конец известен – ядерный Армагеддон», - пояснил Козин.

Северная Корея, по словам Козина, нарушила Договор о нераспространении ядерного оружия. В западных странах будут критиковать решение Ким Чен Ына.

«Договор вступил в силу в 1970 году, тогда ядерного оружия у КНДР не было. Правда, она выходила из договора, потом возвращалась. В западных странах, обладающих ядерным оружием, решение Северной Кореи вызовет возмущение, что было и раньше. Некоторые выскажут негативную точку зрения, но в мягких тонах. Как отреагируют Россия и Китай тоже сказать трудно» - резюмировал Козин.

Ранее в ООН призвали Россию и США подписать новый договор на смену СНВ-3. Москве и Вашингтону необходимо договориться о новом соглашении до истечения прежнего, иначе у мира не останется сдерживающих средств.

Автор: Дмитрий Воробьев. Источник: НСН

 

 

В. Козин: Наступает время для внесения корректив в российскую стратегию ядерного сдерживания

Американская стратегия ядерного сдерживания не менялась со времен бомбардировки Хиросимы и Нагасаки. Это наступательное, безусловное ядерное сдерживание. В основе этой доктрины лежит нанесение первого превентивного или упреждающего ядерного удара. В эту стратегию также входит понятие расширенного ядерного сдерживания, предполагающее раскрытие ядерного зонтика над всеми государствами - членами НАТО и еще над четырьмя партнерами США. Стратегия предусматривает 14 оснований для применения ядерного оружия. Для сравнения, в российской стратегии таких оснований всего два.

Возможно, в свете появления новых видов вооружений, настает время для внесения изменений в российскую стратегию. Например, можно было бы взять на себя обязательства раскрыть свой ядерный зонтик над государствами - членами ОДКБ. С их согласия, разумеется. А также прописать возможность первого ядерного удара при определенных обстоятельствах.

Источник: ИА ИнфоРос

В. Козин: Наш ответ будет своевременным, адекватным и очень эффективным

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе “Открытый эфир” на телеканале “Звезда”.

Удар из космоса. В Москве завершилась конференция по безопасности. Американцы ее демонстративно проигнорировали. И не случайно. Военные эксперты выяснили - США могут использовать космические средства противоракетной обороны для атаки. Владимир Козин работал на форуме и расскажет, насколько реальна эта угроза и какие способы защиты уже есть у России.

Арктический рубикон. НАТО готовится к захвату наших территорий в регионе? Альянс регулярно устраивает в Арктике масштабные учения и тренирует десятки тысяч солдат вести бои в северных условиях.

Эфир от 25 апреля 2019г.

В. Козин: Не мы начали, но мы ответим

Какие «ядерные» и ракетные договоры могут разорвать США и чем Россия на это ответит. 
 
 

Выступая в Конгрессе, Дональд Трамп фактически снял с себя ответственность за выход США из договора о ракетах средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД). Как нетрудно догадаться, вину он возложил на Российскую Федерацию. О том, каковы причины выхода Вашингтона из ДРСМД, чем может ответить Россия и о многом другом мы поговорили с ведущим экспертом Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО, членом-корреспондентом Российской академии естественных наук, профессором Академии военных наук Российской Федерации Владимиром Козиным.

— Каковы причины выхода США при президентстве Дональда Трампа из ДРСМД?

— Причин несколько. Первая причина — желание нынешней американкой администрации разработать, испытать, произвести и разместить в Европе и в зоне АТР новую мобильную наземную крылатую ракету в ядерном и неядерном снаряжении, деньги на НИОКР которой были выделены Конгрессом.

Вторая причина заключается в том, чтобы перевести стрелки на Россию: мол, она нарушает, и поэтому американская сторона вынуждена тоже выйти из этого договора. Но Россия никогда не нарушала этот договор, и американские контрагенты не предъявили мировому сообществу или России доказательства того, что мы нарушали. С другой стороны, начиная с 2001 года американцы 96 раз — я повторяю: 96 раз — нарушали этот договор. Каким образом? При испытании ракет-перехватчиков ПРО они использовали в качестве ракет-мишеней как раз ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, которые договором от 1987 года запрещены. Эта информация имеется на интернет-сайте Управления по противоракетной обороне Пентагона. Более того, в 2019 году американцы еще 12 раз нарушат этот договор, когда опять будут испытывать систему ПРО. В последнее время в основном испытываются ракеты средней дальности как более перспективные, ну и, соответственно, имеющие большую дальность.

Есть третья причина, почему американцы выходят из этого договора. Им просто нужно создать в мире неблагоприятный информационный фон в отношении России, и это очень удобный случай и повод.

Четвертая причина — последующий выход из договора СНВ-3 2010 года, поскольку он мешает США создавать новые системы из области стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений. А поскольку они намерены разместить новую крылатую ракету наземного базирования в Европе и в зоне АТР, то им нужна, конечно, свобода рук. Выходя из договора 1987 года, они ее получают.

Есть еще одна причина. Американцы хотят, чтобы союзники по НАТО увеличили свой военный вклад в общий бюджет НАТО. Как известно, решение об этом принято, к 2024 году все натовские страны должны тратить на оборону два процента ВВП, но известно, что не все натовские государства рады такому решению.

Поэтому Трамп, как видно, преследует выходом из ДРСМД очень много разных причин и целей.

Автор: Константин Стригунов

>>С полной версией статьи вы можете ознакомится на сайте журнала "Эксперт" <<

 
 
 
 
 

В. Козин: Нельзя постоянно твердить, что мы заинтересованы в пролонгации СНВ-3

 

 

Москва рассчитывает на диалог с Вашингтоном по СНВ-3. Пресс-секретарь президента России Дмитрий Песков заявил, что несмотря на отказ Вашингтона от пролонгации договора, контакты между странами будут продолжены.

Ранее Владимир Путин предложил продлить действующий Договор о сокращении стратегических наступательных вооружений без каких-либо условий на год. США отвергли предложение, потому что настаивают на заморозке общего числа боеголовок, что не соответствует интересам Москвы.

Владимир Козин, ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ: «США стремятся «за здорово живешь через предложение о «замораживании» ядерных арсеналов сторон заблокировать у России появление новых перспективных гиперзвуковых и новых ядерных и неядерных видов вооружений, но оставить у себя стратегические наступательные виды вооружений в неядерном оснащении».

Эфир от 19 октября 2020 г.

Источник: радио Sputnik

 
Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/47756

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

В. Козин: Нельзя так вести международные дела!

Выступление ведущего эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО Владимира Козина в программе «Время покажет» на Первом канале.
 
В студии  обсуждают сомнительную дипломатическую игру, затеянную США против Северной Кореи.
 
Эфир от 23 мая 2018г.
 

В. Козин: Необходимо внедрять новый механизм, сдерживающий гонку ядерных вооружений

Саудиты собрались вслед за персами обзавестись атомным оружием «для баланса сил»

Власти Ирана настаивают на отсутствии планов по ядерному оружию, а обратные утверждения называют ложными. Да и МАГАТЭ отмечает отсутствие данных о том, что Иран занимается производством ядерного вооружения.

Но Белый дом не унимается и продолжает на всех углах кричать о том, что если иранское правительство решит создать ядерное оружие, это получится сделать за несколько месяцев, а на создание специального топлива ему вообще потребуется 12 дней. А этого, по мнению Вашингтона, Тегерану ни в коем случае позволять нельзя.

Хотя в принципе стремление Ирана иметь свое собственное ядерное оружие вполне можно понять. Коль скоро янки в Вашингтоне периодически грозят персам применением атомных бомб, с их стороны абсолютно логично предположить, что в случае потенциального американо-иранского конфликта обычных видов вооружений им может не хватить, так что не худо бы обзавестись ядерными боеголовками на всякий пожарный случай, лишним не будет.

Однако на этом фоне довольно тревожным выглядят последние заявления Саудовской Аравии, власти которой не исключают вероятность войны с Ираном в относительно ближайшем будущем. Наследный принц королевства Мухаммед бен Салман намедни в очередной раз предупредил мировую общественность — как только Иран получит ядерное оружие, Саудовской Аравии тоже придется пойти на аналогичный шаг «по соображениям безопасности для уравновешивания сил».

Неужели теперь каждая страна, располагающая достаточным бюджетом или технологиями, может вот так запросто заявлять о том, что заимеет собственную ядерную бомбу «на всякий случай»? И что будет, если через короткий промежуток времени вместо нынешних девяти стран, владеющих ядерным оружием, мы увидим 20−30 таких государств, вдохновленных примером Саудовской Аравии?

— Наличие ядерного оружия имеет определенный сдерживающий эффект. Однако с момента его появления в 1945 году случилось уже довольно много региональных конфликтов, и наличие у одной из противоборствующих сторон ядерных боеголовок их никак не останавливало, — признает член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России, член Научного совета Национального института исследований глобальной безопасности Владимир Козин. — Более того, сами же США минимум 5 раз угрожали их применить — во времена Берлинского и Карибского кризисов, во Вьетнаме, в Ираке и в Афганистане (правда, так и не применили).

С тех пор, как это оружие впервые появилось у пяти мировых держав, ничто, включая самые сказочные договоры о нераспространении, не помешало его появлению еще у четырех стран — Израиля, Пакистана, КНДР и Индии. Следовательно, Саудовская Аравия вполне может создать атомное оружие.

Ничего хорошего я лично в этом не вижу. Если ядерное оружие появится у Ирана, затем у Саудовской Аравии, потом еще у кого-то, ситуация будет ухудшаться. Будет попросту открыта новая фаза гонки ядерных вооружений.

Южная Корея может дополнить пул ядерных держав, даже Япония может если не создать свое, то разместить у себя американское ядерное оружие. Процесс вообще может приобрести необратимый характер. Тем более что существующие международные договоренности ДНЯО и ДЗЯО [договоры о нераспространении и запрещении ядерного оружия] не позволяют запретить или ограничить гонку ядерных вооружений, так как они не распространяются на страны, неприсоединившиеся к ним.

Полагаю, как минимум в США процесс сокращения ядерных вооружений заметно затормозится. Для национальной безопасности России тоже будет очень пагубно сокращать свое ядерное вооружение.

— А не стоит ли опасаться миру в этом случае того, что доступ к такому оружию окажется открыт какому-нибудь излишне экзальтированному правоверному, который в один прекрасный момент отравит весь мир в ядерное пекло? Ведь это Ближний и Средний Восток, исламский радикализм, горячий темперамент — гремучая смесь.

— Я лично не думаю, что в Саудовской Аравии или Иранской республике во власти окажется религиозный фанатик, который когда-либо на это решится. Но это, как говорится, только частные предположения, а на деле после появления у стран Ближнего и Среднего Востока такого оружия определяющее значение будет иметь то, какой ядерной доктрины будут придерживаться новоявленные ядерные державы.

Все зависит от того, какой стратегии они будут придерживаться — стратегии первого удара, стратегии ответного удара, стратегии ответно-встречного удара… Тут вариантов довольно много. Чтобы эту угрозу нивелировать, как минимум необходимо внедрять новый механизм, сдерживающий гонку таких вооружений — глобальную договоренность о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе.

Автор: Андрей Захарченко. Источник: «Свободная пресса»

 

 

В. Козин: Необходимо нанести ракетные удары по военным складам, где хранятся украинские стратегические беспилотники

Военный академик объяснил, как предотвратить атаки беспилотников на объекты в России

Чтобы не допустить новых атак ВСУ на позиции в российском тылу, необходимо нанести ракетные удары по военным складам, где хранятся украинские стратегические беспилотники. Об этом в разговоре с URA.RU заявил член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин.

Ранее стало известно, что по аэродрому в Энгельсе (Саратовская область) была совершена атака украинским беспилотником. В Минобороны РФ подтвердили эту информацию. В оборонном ведомстве добавили, что средства ПВО сбили беспилотник, однако российские военные получили смертельные ранения.

«Вопрос и практическое предложение: нельзя ли уничтожать такие дроны на украинской территории, когда они хранятся в ангарах, на военных складах, на аэродромах? Нельзя ли вспахать взлетно-посадочные полосы, откуда эти дроны взлетали, взлетают, возможно, еще будут взлетать? Нельзя ли их вспахать с помощью ракетных вооружений, авиабомб тяжелого класса и большой мощности? Эти вопросы жизненные и важные», — сказал Владимир Козин.

Собеседник агентства подчеркнул, что беспилотники, атакующие тыловые позиции могут принести ущерб тяжелой российской авиации. «Это еще хорошо, что беспилотник сбили около аэродрома. А если представить, что он бы попал на нашу тяжелую стратегическую авиацию, которая нам нужна в противодействии со странами членами НАТО. Ущерба было бы гораздо больше. И человеческие жертвы мы имеем в результате второго подобного случая», — уточнил он.

«Они взлетают не из Польши, Румынии, Чехии, Словакии, Германии. Они взлетают с украинской территории, поэтому надо быстро изучить всю механику, как это происходит, и уничтожить любые возможности, которые позволили украинским бандеристам, укронацистам повторять агрессивные акции», — заключил военный академик.

Автор: Виталий Мягкий.Источник: URA.RU

 

В. Козин: Никаких документальных данных они не привели ни два года назад, ни год назад, ни сейчас

Эксперт назвал необоснованными обвинения США в адрес РФ о нарушении ДРСМД

Заявление спецпредставителя президента США по ядерному нераспространению Джеффри Эберхардт о якобы нарушении Россией Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД) ни на чем не основано. Такое мнение в четверг, 14 октября, «Известиям» высказал член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин.

 «Никаких документальных данных они не привели ни два года назад, ни год назад, ни сейчас», — подчеркнул он.

Зачастую американцы в качестве примера о якобы нарушении российской стороной вышеуказанного документа упоминают российскую ракету 9М729, отметил эксперт. Однако все заявления Штатов о ней голословны по нескольким причинам.

Так, данная ракета имеет ограниченную дальность действия 480 км, а, согласно условиям договора, к ракетам средней и меньшей дальности относились ракеты российского и американского производства дальностью действия от 500 км и до 5,5 тыс. км, напомнил Козин.

«Мы, естественно, нигде их не развертывали, но в условиях, когда американцы в одностороннем порядке вышли из договора по ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности 1987 года, мы вполне свободны развертывать их где угодно на своей территории, коль скоро этот договор разорван американской стороной», — подчеркнул он.

Кроме того, американская сторона, как отметил эксперт, сама намеревается развертывать на территории своих союзников новые ракеты, но уже не меньшей, а средней дальности. Речь идет о странах — членах НАТО, Японии, Южной Кореи и Австралии.

«Что касается последнего заявления американского представителя из государственного департамента, то эта тема уже звучит давно. Они используют это как средство давления, и поэтому претензии к российской стороне, как я уже сказал, они дважды не справедливы», — добавил эксперт.

Козин призвал американцев, прежде чем делать обвинительные заявления, учитывать то обстоятельство, что действующая на сегодняшний ядерная стратегия США предусматривает нанесение первого ядерного удара по территории Российской Федерации и КНР как ее союзника.

«Не видеть этого и, как говорят, обсуждать псевдопроблему, которая создана американской стороной, ну было бы не только нелогично, но архинеправильно», — заключил он.

Ранее в этот же день Эберхардт, отвечая на вопрос о том, как администрация президента США Джо Байдена относится к инициативе российского лидера Владимира Путина ввести мораторий на развертывание ракет средней и меньшей дальности в Европе, заявил, что Москва якобы уже нарушила ДРСМД, разместив ракеты. Решение вопроса, по его словам, заключается в том, чтобы Россия убрала указанные им ракеты.

Договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности был заключен между СССР и Соединенными Штатами в 1987 году и запрещал двум странам производить и развертывать баллистические и крылатые ракеты средней и меньшей дальности.

В феврале 2019 года Вашингтон начал процедуру выхода из Договора РСМД, обвинив Москву в невыполнении пунктов документа из-за наличия ракеты 9М729, дальность полета которой якобы превышает допустимые нормы. В России данные обвинения отвергали и выражали готовность продемонстрировать вызвавшую вопросы ракету, однако в США навстречу не пошли.

12 марта текущего года официальный представитель МИД РФ Мария Захарова заявила, что возможное размещение американских ракет наземного базирования в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе может повлечь новый виток гонки вооружений с непредсказуемыми последствиями.

Источник: “Известия”

В. Козин: Никакого старья у США не будет

Американцы будут работать над чем-то новым. Средства на научно-исследовательские и опытно-конструкторские работы  у них уже выделены.

В минувшую пятницу президент США Дональд Трамп заявил, что 2 февраля Вашингтон начинает процедуру выхода из договора о ракетах средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД). На следующий день Владимир Путин в ходе встречи с министром иностранных дел РФ Сергеем Лавровым и министром обороны Сергеем Шойгу отметил, что Россия готова дать зеркальный ответ и также приостанавливает свое участие в этом договоре. При этом было принято решение — создать сухопутный вариант ракеты морского базирования «Калибр» и запустить «опытно-конструкторскую работу по созданию наземных комплексов гиперзвуковых баллистических ракет средней и меньшей дальности».

Министр обороны Сергей Шойгу в ходе селекторного совещания в военном ведомстве заявил, что разработать наземный вариант комплекса «Калибр» с крылатой ракетой большой дальности необходимо уже очень скоро — в 2019—2020 годах.

— В эти же сроки нам предстоит создать наземный ракетный комплекс с гиперзвуковой ракетой большой дальности, — сказал министр.

Комментируя это решение, «Коммерсантъ», например, со ссылкой на собственные источники в госструктурах сообщил, что речь может идти об адаптации крылатой ракеты «Калибр-НК», устанавливающейся, в частности, на ракетные корабли Каспийской флотилии для стрельбы из транспортно-пускового контейнера. Как уточнил неназванный собеседник издания, гиперзвуковая ракета наземного базирования средней дальности будет создаваться на основе изделия 3М22 «Циркон», которая будет запускаться с тех же пусковых установок, что используются для ракет «Калибр».

— Возвращаться к старым советским технологиям не стоит,- считает профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин. Зачем? Во-первых, у нас есть более мощные ракеты. Тот же «Кинжал» можно переделать. Во-вторых, материалы, двигатели и топливо для них, системы наведения — все уже сейчас другое. Кто же будет в таких условиях, простите, «зады» повторять?

— А США может что-то из старых вооружений в дело пустить?

— Американцы будут работать над чем-то новым. Средства на научно-исследовательские и опытно-конструкторские работы (НИОКР) у них уже выделены. И это говорит о том, что никакого старья у них не будет. Во-первых, им нужна новая крылатая ракета наземного мобильно-грунтового базирования в ядерном и неядерном исполнениях. Во-вторых, они будут разрабатывать гиперзвуковые системы. Хотя бы потому, что в этом вопросе США очень сильно от нас отстали. Их военные все еще никак не могут превысить затестированные показатели нашего гиперзвукового блока «Авангард» (в качестве носителя используется советская ракета УР-100Н УТТХ — ред.). Естественно, в августе месяце для продолжения своих работ они обязательно выйдут из ДРСМД, причем в полном соответствии с его пятнадцатой статьей. Но тогда и мы будем свободны от своих обязательств.

— А может ли случиться так, что сейчас Москва и Вашингтон «поиграют мускулами», взаимно попугают друг друга, а через полгода вернутся к соблюдению ДРСМД? Или вовсе перезаключат новый договор?

— Такая мысль уже звучала, причем из уст не кого-нибудь, а самого Майка Помпео, глашатая телодвижений Америки по ДРСМД. Такое развитие событий, в принципе, вполне возможно. Но здесь России, я полагаю, надо не просто согласиться с тем, что Америка станет скрупулезно блюсти старый договор, а закрутить гайки своей собственной общенациональной позиции.

— И в каком ключе это следует сделать?

— Всем известно, что американцы говорили, что останутся в рамках договора, если мы уничтожим свою ракету 9М-729. Но мы ведь тоже имеем право в ответ сказать — да, мы остаемся в рамках старого ДРСМД вместе с вами, если США выполнит ряд условий. Во-первых, если откажется от НИОКР, а также создания и развертывания в Европе своей новой мобильно-грунтовой крылатой ракеты наземного базирования GLCM-X. Во-вторых, если Америка полностью демонтирует свою операционную базу противоракетной обороны в Румынии и прекратит строительство еще не вставшего на боевое дежурство аналогичного объекта на польской территории. Наконец, мы, не стесняясь, должны заявить — Россия готова остаться в рамках ДРСМД, если США полностью выведут все свое тактическое оружие, до сих пор размещенное на территории четырех европейских стран и в азиатской части Турции. Вот тогда к старому договору вернуться можно.

— А если заключить новый ДРСМД?

— Я, честно говоря, поостерегся бы заключать с американцами новые аналогичные соглашения. Хотя бы потому, что если уж они сейчас собираются выходить из договора 1987 года, то где гарантия того, что они не попытаются выйти из нового?

— Но ведь Трамп вроде бы уже озвучивал необходимость заключения договора на многосторонней основе, с привлечением Китая…

— Да, он призывал собраться США, Россию и КНР собраться в уютном месте. Но у меня вопрос к господину Трампу — а как быть с ядерными силами Великобритании и Франции? Их тоже позовут в этот договор? Как быть с Израилем, который тоже имеет ядерные ракеты средней дальности? Как быть с Индией и Пакистаном, у которых также есть аналогичное вооружение? И про Северную Корею тут еще не стоит забывать. Эти страны, в отличие от России и США, не являются участниками никаких вообще соглашений по контролю за ядерным вооружением. Не думаю, что они согласятся. И по геополитическим причинам, и по причине того, что американцы слишком уж часто в одностороннем порядке рвут даже те договоры, по которым сами же выступают инициаторами.

— Какой же тут выход?

— Самый простой вариант — США остаются в ДРСМД 1987 года с вышеуказанными условиями. И к этому надо добавить еще один нюанс — США должны прекратить испытывать свои системы ПРО с помощью ракет-мишеней средней и меньшей дальности в неядерном исполнении, что они делают в нарушение ДРСМД, по словам Сергея Лаврова, аж с 1999 года. Кстати, на этом фоне очень забавно выглядит недавно прозвучавшее обвинение в нарушении ДРСМД в адрес России со стороны Японии. Этому внеболоковому союзнику США, как никому другому, слишком хорошо известно, какие именно ракеты используют американцы при отработке перехвата целей своими системами ПРО. Потому что на протяжении многих лет США совместно с японской стороной создают наиболее эффективную ракету-перехватчик SM-3 модификации IIА, причем Япония обеспечивает разработку и создание сразу пяти компонентов для нее. Мало того, японские ВМС уже неоднократно вместе с американцами использовали SM-3 модификаций IIA и IB для перехвата ракет средней и меньшей дальности в районе Тихого океана. Таким образом Япония является косвенным сообщником Америки в вопросе нагнетания напряженности вокруг ДРСМД, соавтором и соисполнителем этой проблематики.

Автор: Андрей Захарченко, Источник: “Свободная пресса”

В. Козин: Новая "безъядерная формула" Трампа противоречит ядерной стратегии США

 

Выступление ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе “Открытый эфир” на телеканале "Звезда".

Дональд Трамп заявил, что США, России и Китаю надо избавиться от ядерного оружия! Крайне неожиданное заявление. Особенно если учитывать последние действия Вашингтона в области ядерных вооружений. Некоторые эксперты поспешили интерпретировать подобное высказывание Дональда Трампа в том духе, что, он вроде бы действительно стремится к тому, чтобы ведущие мировые ядерные державы, в том числе и США, отказались от ядерного оружия, и что Вашингтон даже готов взять на себя роль инициатора движения к безъядерному миру. Но все далеко не так просто. Новая "безъядерная инициатива" Дональда Трампа противоречит ядерной стратегии США.

Эфир от 30 апреля 2019г.

В. Козин: Новая стратегическая ядерная триада США

 

 

© Владимир Петрович Козин

член-корреспондент Российской академии естественных наук

профессор Академии военных наук Российской Федерации

член Экспертного Совета при Комитете по международным делам Совета Федерации Федерального Собрания Российской Федерации

ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО МИД России

 

Выступление на международной конференции  «Долгосрочное прогнозирование развития международных отношений в мире».МГИМО,14 декабря 2017 года.

Вступивший в должность президента США Дональд Трамп унаследовал от своего предшественника Барака Обамы значительный ракетно-ядерный потенциал стратегического и тактического назначения в виде ядерных боезарядов и средств их доставки, а также ядерную стратегию «безусловного наступательного ядерного сдерживания», предусматривающую нанесение первого «упреждающего и превентивного» ядерного удара практически по любому государству мира, которое не относится к союзникам, друзьям или партнерам Вашингтона. В списке таких государств Россия и КНР стоят, соответственно, на первом и втором месте.

По состоянию на 1 марта 2017 года в американских стратегических ядерных силах находился в общей сложности 673 оперативно развернутых стратегических носителей в виде МБР, БРПЛ и стратегических ТБ, на которых на обозначенную дату было установлено 1.411 оперативно развернутых ядерных боезарядов стратегического назначения.

По конкретным видам названных стратегических наступательных вооружений американская стратегическая ядерная триада была представлена на 1 марта 2017 года 405 МБР «Минитмен-3»  с максимальной мощностью 335 кт для боезаряда «W-78» и 455 кт «W-87» (278 оперативно неразвернутых ракет), 220 БРПЛ «Трайдент-2» с мощностью 100 кт для боезаряда «W-78»  и 455 кт для боезаряда «W-87»  (203 оперативно неразвернутых) и 48 ТБ (18 оперативно неразвернутых), в том числе 12 ТБ «В-2А» (8 оперативно неразвернутых) и 36 бомбардировщиками «В-52Н» (10 оперативно неразвернутых). Кроме того, у них находился 41 ТБ «В-52Н», переоборудованный под неядерные функции.

На эту дату на долю МБР падало 60% от всех носителей, на БРПЛ – 33% и на бомбардировщики 7%. СЯС США находятся в постоянной модернизации.По данным корпорации «Боинг», опубликованным в августе 2017 года, стратегические ядерные силы США обеспечивают боеготовность МБР «Минитмэн-3» на 99,7%.

В январе 2017 года уходящий со своего поста вице-президент Джозеф Байден признал, что по состоянию на 30 сентября 2016 года США располагали в общей сложности 4.018 оперативно развернутыми и оперативно неразвернутыми ядерными боезарядами стратегического и тактического назначения. В это количество не вошли приблизительно 2.800 ядерных боезарядов, снятых с вооружения и ожидающих утилизации (в 2010 году Россия сообщила на Обзорной конференции по ДНЯО о наличии  у нее 3900 ядерных боезарядов, а в 2015 году – о 1582 боезарядах; см. интервью директора ДКНВ МИД России Михаила Ульянова газете «Коммерсант» 13.09.2017).

Новая стратегическая ядерная триада США

Начиная с 2025 года, США приступят к коренной перекройке своей классической стратегической ядерной триады, постепенно заменяя все ее три компонента новыми типами СНВ.

В 2025 году они создадут новый стратегический ТБ «В-21» («Рейдер»).

Их предполагается произвести до 100 единиц. Основными особенностями новой машины станут: продолжительность времени боевого патрулирования в воздухе и ее оснащение перспективными средствами преодоления системы ПВО-ПРО потенциального противника. Самолет будет создаваться с использованием технологии «Стелс», иметь большую дальность полета.

В 2029 году появится новая МБР «GBSD» или «средство стратегического сдерживания наземного базирования», для упрощения называемая как «Минитмэн-4».Их общее количество запланировано довести до 400 единиц. На новой МБР будут установлены наиболее эффективные средства наведения на цели и система преодоления ПРО, повышена скорость полета и дальность стрельбы, использована новая система запуска и контролирования полета. С целью повышения эффективности отдельных узлов и агрегатов новой ракеты она будет собираться по модульному принципу.21 августа 2017 года корпорации «Боинг» и «Нортроп Груммэн» получили контракты на проведение ТЭО и обеспечение безопасности новой ракеты стоимостью 349,2 и 328,6 млн. долларов. Эти работы должны быть завершены в августе 2020 года.

Первая новая ПЛАРБ класса «Колумбия» выйдет на боевое патрулирование в 2031 году. В общей сложности будет построено 12 таких «экспериментальных» атомных ракетных подводных лодок; на каждой из них будет установлено по 16 БРПЛ.

Все три компонента новой стратегической триады будут находиться на вооружении до 2080 года и далее.

В общей сложности такая перекройка традиционной стратегической ядерной триады позволит США иметь к середине нынешнего века до 692 принципиально новых носителей СНВ – без учета крылатых ракет  воздушного базирования повышенной дальности, оснащенных ядерными боезарядами, которых в период президентства Барака Обамы предполагалось создать до 1000-1100 единиц. В августе 2017 года корпорации «Локхид Мартин» и «Рейтеон» получили по 900 млн. долларов на проведение технического обоснования и обеспечение безопасности новой КРВБ большой дальности в ядерном снаряжении. Эти работы должны быть завершены к 2022 году. Новая ракета заменит КРВБ прежнего типа «AGM-86B».

В потенциале подводных сил 45-го президента США останутся четыре ПЛАРК класса «Огайо» с общим количеством КРМБ в неядерном снаряжении 616 единиц.

Причем, на модернизацию и обновление стратегической ядерной триады  США до 2026 года будет выделено до 400 млрд. долларов, а в ближайшие 30 лет 1,2 триллиона долларов (1,7 трлн. долларов с учетом инфляции), что подтвердило Бюджетное управление американского Конгресса.

Дональдом Трампом была сформулирована общая задача: продолжать модернизацию как стратегических, так и тактических ядерных вооружений. Названная сумма в 400 млрд. долларов на 13% больше суммы, которую при Бараке Обаме определяло Бюджетное управление Конгресса на 2015-2024 годы. Тогда она составляла 348 млрд. долларов. Указанный рост расходов означает, что американские ассигнования на ядерные вооружения будут расти в среднем до 5 % с 2017 года и до 7% к 2026 году. 

47% из названной суммы в 400 млрд. долларов или 189 млрд. долларов в абсолютном выражении должны были пойти на развитие стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений, два процента или 9 млрд. долларов – на модернизацию тактического ядерного оружия. Остальные ассигнования предназначалось выделить на финансирование лабораторий по разработке ядерного оружия, развитие командно-управленческих структур в системе ракетно-ядерных вооружений и модернизацию элементов раннего предупреждения о ракетном нападении. 14% или 56 млрд. долларов в абсолютном выражении от суммы в 400 млрд. долларов предполагалось перевести в резерв, что позволит администрации 45-го президента США использовать их для модернизации какой-то части ядерных вооружений в зависимости от развития военно-политической ситуации в мире.

При Дональде Трампе продолжится курс на универсализацию ядерных боезарядов: вместо семи типов боезарядов авиабомб и крылатых ракет в ядерных арсеналах страны будет находиться два типа боезаряда и вместо пяти видов ядерных боезарядов баллистических ракет будет три типа ядерных боезаряда. Иными словами: вместо двенадцати существующих типов ЯБЗ на вооружении будут находиться только пять типов ядерных боезарядов.

Тактическое ядерное оружие

Дональд Трамп унаследовал 2651 тактический ядерный боезаряд, установленный на четырех типах ядерных авиабомб тактического назначения типа «В-61», часть из которых сосредоточена на континентальной части США, а другая дислоцирована в четырех странах Европы (Бельгия, Италия, Нидерланды и ФРГ), а также в азиатской части Турции. Два типа из имеющихся на вооружении таких авиабомб (В-61-7 и В-61-11) способны выполнять стратегические ядерные задачи; Пентагон и Госдепартамент относят их к стратегическим вооружениям. Следует обратить внимание на то, что Барак Обама и Дональд Трамп приостановили вывод из состава ядерных сил страны именно этих авиабомб, имеющих соответственно максимальный ядерный боезаряд 360 и 400 килотонн.

Администрация Дональда Трампа решительно настроена на то, что в 2020 году или даже раньше американский ВПК приступил к массовому производству корректируемых ядерных авиабомб нового поколения повышенной точности «В-61-12», которые заменят ранее разработанные варианты авиабомб этого класса. В августе 2016 года Национальное управление по ядерной безопасности сообщило, что оно вместе с ВВС США завершило инженерную фазу разработки данной авиабомбы, которая является финальной стадией перед началом ее массового производства. Принятие первой партии новой авиабомбы ожидается к марту 2020 года. По мнению Управления и ВВС США, эта программа представляет собой «критический элемент стратегии расширенного ядерного сдерживания». Эта авиабомба может быть использована для нанесения «ограниченного» ядерного удара, имея минимальную мощность ядерного боезаряда 0,3-1,5 кт и максимальную – 50 кт.

Названная авиабомба сможет выполнять как тактические, так и стратегические задачи ( в последнем случае при установке на ТБ). США уже не раз испытывали такую авиабомбу. Эта бомба будет отличаться высокой степенью точностью наведения благодаря специально разработанному хвостовому оперению.

Американская сторона намерена использовать такие авиабомбы и другие ядерные средства далеко за пределами США, поскольку стратегия «расширенного ядерного сдерживания» является составной частью генеральной американской ядерной стратегии «безусловного наступательного ядерного сдерживания» и предполагает раскрытие американского «ядерного зонтика» над союзниками Вашингтона по НАТО и некоторыми государствами-партнерами, не входящими в трансатлантический альянс. То есть, в общей сложности над 32 государствами мира – над 28 членами НАТО и четырьмя союзниками США.

Под доставку авиабомб «В-61-12» создаются многоцелевые истребители-бомбардировщики «F-35A» (наземного базирования) и «F-35C» (авианосного базирования), которые будут находиться на вооружении до 2075 года, а также упоминавшийся новый стратегический тяжелый бомбардировщик «В-21». 15 апреля 2017 года первая партия «F-35A» из восьми машин уже прибыла в Великобританию.

Министр обороны США Джеймс Мэттис высказался за продажу европейским государствам-членам НАТО этих новых многоцелевых истребителей-бомбардировщиков «F-35».Ожидается, что в Европе этот самолет будет принят на вооружение ВВС Великобритании, Дании, Италии, Нидерландов, Польши и ФРГ, а в зоне АТР военно-воздушными силами Турции, Южной Кореи и Японии.

Дональд Трамп уклоняется и впредь будет уклоняться от вывода на континентальную часть США всех американских ядерных боезарядов тактического назначения в виде авиабомб из четырех стран Европы и азиатской части Турции, на чем последовательно и постоянно настаивала и по-прежнему настаивает Российская Федерация, которая уже вывела все тактическое ядерное оружие бывшего СССР из Беларуси, Казахстана и Украины на свою территорию к середине 90-ых годов.

Новый хозяин Белого дома нигде не поставил вопроса о прекращении круглосуточной и круглогодичной операции ВВС пятнадцати стран НАТО (из 29) «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» в небе Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии, в которой с марта 2004 года принимают участие самолеты «двойного назначения» трех ядерных держав трансатлантического альянса – Великобритании, США и Франции. То есть самолеты, способные нести как обычные, так и ядерные авиабомбы.  Эта операция является провокационной относительно Российской Федерации и Республики Беларусь именно по обозначенным обстоятельствам. Эта операция слабо подвергается критике в официальных и экспертных заявлениях в нашей стране.

Указанные значительные средства будут изысканы администрацией Дональда Трампа за счет снижения доли военных расходов США в НАТО (она составляет 80%), повышения объема поставок американских вооружений другим странам (до 500 млрд. долларов в ближайшие 10 лет, а также за счет снижения их доли в бюджете ООН (она достигает 20%).

Ядерная стратегия Трампа

Дональд Трамп сделал не так уж много заявлений о будущей ядерной политике Соединенных Штатов. Все они прозвучали в основном до президентских выборов 8 ноября 2016 года, и, главным образом, в предвыборном манифесте Республиканской партии «Возрождающаяся Америка», в разработке которого он принимал непосредственное участие, а также в ряде его интервью представителям американских СМИ.

В этой предвыборной платформе республиканцев изложены общие принципы строительства и использования американских вооруженных сил. Отмечается, что партия будет стремиться к переоснащению вооружённых сил страны таким образом, «чтобы они стали самыми сильными в мире и имели значительное превосходство над любым государством или группой государств». Повторена ключевая задача американских вооруженных сил, которая была определена президентом-республиканцем Рональдом Рейганом: Америка должна быть способной вести и одержать победу в «двух с половиной войнах» в глобальном и региональном масштабе.

В документ, который составит основу всей военной политики  Соединенных Штатов, по крайней мере, на первый президентский срок правления Дональда Трампа, включена формулировка «Мир через силу», которую, как утверждали в ходе предвыборной кампании его ближайшие помощники, он исповедует уже давно. Кстати говоря, такая же формулировка отражена в концепции внешней политики Соединенных Штатов в качестве «ее центрального элемента», которая изложена на сайте Государственного департамента страны уже после вступления нового президента в должность.

В манифесте «Возрождающаяся Америка был подвергнут прямой критике уровень содержания американских стратегических ядерных сил, длительный срок использования средств доставки ядерного оружия и обращено внимание на важность обновления всей традиционной классической стратегической ядерной триады. В этой предвыборной платформе также подвергается критике Договор СНВ-3, подписанный в 2010 году с Россией, который, якобы, позволил ей нарастить ядерный потенциал при одновременном сокращении американских СНВ, а также то, что он имеет «слабый» инспекционный механизм, не позволяющий доказать его нарушения Москвой.

Принципиально важным в ядерной доктрине любого ядерного государства является постулат о применении ядерного оружия в первом или ответном ударе.

В одном из многочисленных интервью американским газетам федерального значения еще до ноябрьских выборов Дональд Трамп заявлял о готовности взять вместе с российским военно-политическим руководством обязательство о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе, а также – что является  весьма важным дополнением в данном контексте – оформить такую договоренность в письменном виде, что можно интерпретировать, как его стремление придать подобной сделке политически и юридически обязательный  характер. Во время слушаний в Конгрессе в январе 2017 года шеф Пентагона заявил о готовности новой администрации выработать такую точку зрения относительно национальной стратегической ядерной триады, «чтобы это оружие никогда не должно быть применено».

В ядерной доктрине США пока остается положение о неприменении ядерного оружия против городов, но эта формулировка распространяется только на конфликты с применением обычных видов вооружений. 

Негативными особенностями нынешней ядерной доктрины США является то, что ушедший со своего поста Барак Обама завещал своему сменщику Дональду Трампу отказ от стратегии «минимального ядерного сдерживания». Он пока не пошел на замену деструктивной парадигмы прошлого «взаимное гарантированное уничтожение» на более конструктивную теорию «взаимной гарантированной безопасности».

Следует также учесть, что на военное направление деятельности Дональда Трампа уже оказывается сильное давление со стороны Демократической партии. В октябре 2016 года десять бывших руководителей командными центрами боевого управления МБР написали открытое письмо с просьбой не допускать Дональда Трампа к кодам запуска таких ядерных ракет из-за его некомпетентности.

Через два дня после вступления его в должность два представителя Демократической партии сенатор Эдвард Марки и член Палаты представителей Тэд Лью внесли на рассмотрение Конгресса законопроект, который запретил бы новому президенту применить первым ядерное оружие против кого бы то ни было в условиях отсутствия объявления войны этим высшим законодательным органом. Свое решение оба законодателя мотивировали тем, что в ходе предвыборной кампании Дональд Трампа делал противоречивые заявления, касающиеся проблемы распространения ядерного оружия и его применения в первом ударе.

Как известно, до вступления в свою должность новый президент заявлял, что он не применит ядерное оружие в первом ударе и будет последним, кто применит его первым, но одновременно добавлял, что будет готов использовать любые имеющиеся в его распоряжении возможности в этой сфере.

4 сентября 2017 года Белый дом распространил заявление после телефонного разговора Дональда Трампа с премьер-министром Японии Синздзо Абэ, который последовал после проведения испытания водородного оружия Северной Кореей. В этом заявлении говорится: «Президент Трамп подтвердил обязательства США защищать свое государство и территорию, а также союзников с использованием всего спектра дипломатических, обычных и ядерных потенциалов». Выступая 19 сентября 2017 года на 72-ой сессии Генеральной Ассамблеи ООН, Дональд Трамп заявил о готовности «полностью уничтожить» Северную Корею в том случае, если она будет угрожать США и их союзникам своим ракетно-ядерным оружием. Там же им было сделано критическое замечание в адрес многосторонней ядерной сделки с Ираном 2015 года, что грозит вызвать более глубокую конфронтацию Вашингтона с Тегераном, чем с Пхеньяном. Иран уже заявил, что не будет пересматривать Венскую договоренность 2015 года. Против ее пересмотра выступили все остальные четыре ядерные державы.

Барак Обама, а вслед за ним Дональд Трамп отказались понизить степень боеготовности ракетно-ядерных сил США, которая является весьма высокой, достигая по МБР и ТБ практически 100%.

Не изложил 45-ый президент своих подходов к перспективам ратификации Соединенными Штатами Договора о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний (ДВЗЯИ). Американский Сенат успешно провалил эту первую и последнюю попытку, предпринятую еще в 1999 году.

Дональд Трамп не проявил желания вернуться к выполнению соглашения об утилизации избыточного оружейного плутония, заключённого с Россией в 2000 году. Документ предусматривал утилизацию оружейного плутония, объявленного излишним для военных программ, объёмом 34 тонн с каждой стороны, то есть количества, достаточного, по данным агентства «ЮПИ», для изготовления 17 тысяч ядерных боезарядов. Наиболее важным положением достигнутой тогда договорённости является обязательство сторон обеспечить необратимость перевода избыточного плутония в формы, которые были бы непригодны для изготовления ядерных боезарядов.

К концу 2017 года или в начале 2018 года Дональд Трамп изложит свои взгляды по двум взаимосвязанным между собой документам общенационального значения, касающимся ракетно-ядерного оружия: «Обзор ядерной политики» и «Стратегию применения ядерного оружия». Важно тщательно проанализировать оба эти документа.

В указаниях шефу Пентагона Джеймсу Маттису, переданным 27 января 2017 года, Дональд Трамп предписал ему подготовить обновленный проект «Обзора ядерной политики» для того, «чтобы обеспечить, чтобы ядерное сдерживание Соединенных Штатов опиралось на современные, надежные, гибкие, эффективные, готовые к применению и соответствующим образом скомпонованные ядерные силы, способные сдерживать угрозы XXI века и вселять уверенность в наших союзников». Изложенные указания по сути дела ставят перед министром обороны США задачу не ослаблять американские ядерные силы, а наоборот – модернизировать их и повышать их эффективность.

В своем твите, размещенном 22 декабря 2016 года, Дональд Трамп заявил: «Соединенные Штаты должны основательно укреплять и расширять свой ядерный потенциал до тех пор, пока мировое сообщество не определится с ядерным оружием». США проигнорировали международные дебаты по выработке международной конвенции о полной ликвидации ядерного оружия, которые велись в 2016-2017 годах. На сессии Генеральной Ассамблее ООН 19 сентября 2017 года Трамп вообще не коснулся вопроса ограничения ядерных вооружений.

Работа над «Обзором ядерной политики» началась в апреле 2017 года. Его непосредственно готовят один из заместителей министра обороны и заместитель председателя ОКНШ, а также высокопоставленные исполнители из заинтересованных министерств и ведомств, в том числе Пентагона, Государственного департамента и министерства энергетики на уровне заместителей министров. Нет сомнения в том, что ядерная доктрина США при Трампе останется неизменной. В кратком виде ее можно квалифицировать как «безусловное наступательное ядерное сдерживание». В ней останется положение о первом ядерном ударе. Она будет иметь антироссийский и антикитайский характер.

Высокопоставленные американские представители его администрации открыто говорят о необходимости создания «баланса между ядерным сдерживанием и эскалацией обычных вооружений», о сочетании «ядерного и неядерного сдерживания». При Обаме и Трампе появились даже публично сделанные высказывания действующих высокопоставленных американских военных о возможности «ограниченного применения ядерного оружия». В последнем случае предполагается применять новую авиабомбу «В-61-12», имеющую максимальный ядерный боезаряд в 50 килотонн и минимальный 0,3 килотонны.

При правлении Барака Обамы в американских военно-политических кругах широко стали обсуждаться возможности начала «ограниченной ядерной войны» с целью «деэскалации» вооруженного конфликта, который может начаться с использованием обычных видов вооружений. При нем стали дебатироваться возможности развязывания боевых действий с применением миниатюрных ядерных боезарядов, а также стали проводиться комбинированные военные учения – учения, начинаемые с первоначальным использованием сил общего назначения, но впоследствии трансформируемые в военные учения с применением ядерного оружия. В марте 2017 года были проведены масштабные маневры Стратегического командования США «Глобальная молния-2017», которые стали самой крупной проверкой стратегической ядерной триады с начала 90-ых годов.

В период Барака Обамы к проведению «ядерных» военно-штабных компьютерных игр стали привлекаться высокопоставленные гражданские государственные служащие, которые могли оказывать влияние на принятие решений в ракетно-ядерной сфере.

Дональд Трамп, как и Барак Обама, не отказался от блокирования предложения арабских и ряда других государств о создании на Ближнем Востоке зоны, свободной от трех классических видов оружия массового уничтожения: ядерного, химического и биологического (бактериологического) оружия. Эта идея постоянно торпедируется администрациями США в течение нескольких десятилетий под надуманными предлогами.

Противоракетная оборона

Президент-ставленник Республиканской партии не намерен сокращать расходы на дальнейшее развертывание глобальной системы ПРО, которая в настоящее время уже имеет до 1100 ракет-перехватчиков наземного и морского базирования (сюда не включены ЗРК «Пэтриот» различных модификаций). Опасность бесконтрольного развития противоракетных средств США и их союзников по НАТО заключается в том, что в ближайшие годы они превысят по количеству стратегических ядерных носителей России, определенных Договором СНВ-3 (800 оперативно развернутых и оперативно неразвернутых единиц). Если пропорция между оборонительными ракетами-перехватчиками ПРО и наступательных ядерных МБР всех видов базирования составит выше уровня 2:1, то такое положение сильно подорвет стратегическое равновесие между Москвой и Вашингтоном.

Администрация президента Дональда Трампа одновременно намерена увеличить количество ракет-перехватчиков стратегического назначения на континентальной части страны с 44 до 64 единиц, добавив дополнительно 20 пусковых установок для размещения противоракет на Аляске. Появились планы развертывания на территории страны в общей сложности 104 противоракет.

При Трампе расходы на развитие ПРО не будут подлежать сокращению.

США стремятся повысить эффективность системы ПРО. 56% успешных перехватов баллистических и крылатых ракет показали испытания стратегической системы ПРО континентального наземного базирования, 82% продемонстрировала морская система ПРО и 100% ПРО ТВД «ТХААД». Были проведены комбинированные перехваты до четырех-пяти ракетных целей одновременно. Разрабатываются противоракеты с РГЧ ИН.

Возобновится программа установки ударных лазерных средств ПРО на тяжелых самолетах. Ударно-боевые средства ПРО могут появиться в США на больших БПЛА.

«Чикагская триада»

Дональд Трамп не откажется от «чикагской триады», то есть созданного в мае 2012 года на саммите НАТО в Чикаго стратегического механизма трансатлантического альянса в виде объединения ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных вооружений. Его особенность заключается в том, что он выдвинут к рубежам России в качестве средств «передового базирования». Эта триада была вновь утверждена на саммитах блока в Уэльсе в 2014 году и Варшаве в 2016. Формулировка о ней скорее всего прозвучит на очередном саммите блока в 2018 году.

16 нерешенных проблем в сфере КНВ

Барак Обама оставил Дональду Трампу наследство в виде 16 нерешенных проблем в области контроля над ядерными и неядерными вооружениями (см. слайд; эти  проблемы были также описаны в: Козин В. Тактическое ядерное оружие США: сокращения или модернизация? М.: 2015. Врезка около стр. 257;  Козин В. После Обамы: фактор  Трампа. Что нужно сделать для улучшения российско-американских отношений?//Национальная оборона. 2016. № 12. Декабрь. стр. 40-41.). Часть из них (например, ТЯО и ПРО США) должна быть рассмотрена в ближайшее время.

Нарушение Вашингтоном Договора о ликвидации РСМД

В 2016-2017 годах в США усилились требования выйти из Договора о ликвидации РСМД и создать новую КРНБ средней дальности.

Нарушения Договора о ликвидации РСМД со стороны США проявлялись трех формах: 1) использование баллистических ракет-мишеней меньшей, средней и промежуточной дальности при тестировании эффективности системы ПРО; 2) использование ПУ оперативных баз ПРО в Румынии и Польше для загрузки КРНБ; 3) использование тяжелых БПЛА, напоминающих КРНБ. В будущем возможно использование таких ПУ и ударными средствами «Молниеносного глобального удара».

Необходимо напомнить, что, начиная с 2001 года, Пентагон провёл к концу 2017 года в общей сложности 92 таких испытания, 74 из которых (что составляет 80%) были признаны успешными. Еще более успешными были испытания противоракет системы ПРО ТВД «THAAD»: из 15 испытаний, проведенных с ее использованием по состоянию на 4 октября 2017 года, успешными были все 15 попыток перехвата баллистических ракет.

28 июня 2017 года, Комитет по вооружённым силам Палаты представителей американского Конгресса подготовил проект закона об ассигнованиях на национальную оборону страны на 2018 год. В нем оговариваются условия, при которых США могут приостановить соблюдение Договора о ликвидации РСМД. Американские конгрессмены заявили, что если Россия нарушит этот договорный акт и не станет соблюдать его вновь в течение 15 месяцев с момента вступления закона в силу, то Вашингтон больше не будет юридически связан этим договором.

По признанию информированной газеты «Вашингтон пост», закон «призывает создать новую наступательную ракетную программу по производству ракет средней дальности». 14 июля 2017 года Палата представителей американского Конгресса 344 голосами «за» и 81 голосами «против» одобрила законопроект о финансировании разработки в США новой крылатой ракеты средней дальности, запрещенной Договором «Горбачева-Рейгана» 1987 года. В военном бюджете на 2018 год, утвержденном Сенатом 18 сентября 2017 года, на разработку этой ракеты выделено 58 млн. долларов. В этом - главная причина нападок США на Россию по поводу ее «нарушений» Договора 1987 года. В преддверии голосования по бюджету 2018 года в Сенате 18 сентября 2017 года группа американских экспертов по КНВ и ряд бывших госслужащих предупредили, что создание новой КРНБ ускорит кончину Договора о ликвидации РСМД. Но это предупреждение не возымело никакого действия. Не прошла в ходе голосования и поправка нескольких сенаторов отклонить выделение денежных средств на эти цели.

В американском экспертном сообществе одновременно циркулирует  предложение, в соответствии с которым выдвигается идея просто передать новые американские носители ядерного оружия средней дальности своим союзникам по НАТО, которые не являются участниками Договора о ликвидации РСМД, не оставляя их в составе американских вооруженных сил и не нарушая этого договора. Необходимо выступать против и такого шага.

Практические предложения

В складывающейся ситуации представляется важным предложить США реализовать в сфере контроля над вооружениями следующие практические предложения.

1.Отказ от продления Договора СНВ-3. Дональд Трамп еще не повторил и не модифицировал предложение Барака Обамы о необходимости достижения с Москвой новых сокращений американских и российских СНВ – примерно на одну треть относительно Договора СНВ-3, подписанного в Праге в апреле 2010 года. Вступив в должность главы американского государства, он пока лишь высказался за готовность пойти на «весьма существенное» сокращение ядерных вооружений с Россией в обмен на снятие «некоторых» торгово-экономических санкций с нее, необоснованно введенных Вашингтоном в  инициативном порядке. Но Москва уже на официальном и на экспертном уровне отклонила эту «новацию» из-за ее неэквивалентности и несовместимости элементов «размена».

В случае получения официального предложения Вашингтона продлить на пять лет срок действия Договора СНВ-3 (с 2021 до 2026 года) целесообразно отказаться от такого предложения, а также уклоняться от заключения нового Договора СНВ-4 на двусторонней основе, мотивируя это невозможностью игнорировать бесконтрольное развертывание глобальной системы ПРО и модернизацию ТЯО США у рубежей России при «замораживании» потолков по СНВ России еще на дополнительные пять лет, то есть до 2026 года, в то время как количество и качественная сторона ракет-перехватчиков США значительно возрастет.

При этом следует подчеркивать, что с выполнением действующего Договора СНВ-3 Россия фактически полностью исчерпала возможности для дальнейших шагов на двусторонней основе с американской стороной в названной области. В этой связи необходимо подключение к соответствующему переговорному процессу всех государств, обладающих ядерно-оружейным потенциалом, в особенности Великобритании и Франции как военных союзников США, имеющих взаимные обязательства в сфере стратегического наступательного ядерного сдерживания.

Необходимо также обращать внимание Белого дома на опасность дальнейшего сокращения российских СНВ, часть которых призвана преодолевать американскую систему ПРО, в условиях ее неконтролируемого пространственного распространения, что может привести к подрыву стратегической стабильности и безопасности в глобальном масштабе, а также вызывать новую гонку вооружений – противоракетных систем.

Надо также принимать во внимание, что продление Договора СНВ-3 еще на пять лет  после его первоначального финального срока фактически оставит неизменным метод нереального подсчета стратегических ядерных носителей, когда один тяжелый бомбардировщик будет засчитываться как одна единица СНВ.

Бывший глава российской делегации на переговорах с американской стороной по подготовке Договора СНВ-3 Анатолий Антонов признавал в своей монографии «Контроль над вооружениями: история, состояние, перспективы», вышедшей в 2012 году, что в этом договоре не нашла окончательного решения проблема КРМБ большой дальности, нет в нем и запрета на СНВ в неядерном оснащении, «хотелось бы большего по возвратному потенциалу», жестче зафиксировать взаимосвязь стратегических наступательных и противоракетных вооружений, а также сделать подписанный договор «более качественным и всеобъемлющим». Коль скоро такие недостатки признаны им, то тем более после прекращения Договора СНВ-3 в 2021 году их нельзя зафиксировать еще на последующие пять лет.

2. Следует настаивать на реальном подсчете стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений. Условные зачеты одного стратегического тяжелого бомбардировщика «как одна единица СНВ» позволяет Пентагону маскировать перспективные виды стратегических, а также тактических ядерных вооружений, способных решать стратегические задачи. Соотношение оперативно неразвернутых баллистических ракет к оперативно развернутым составляет при администрации Дональда Трампа остается весьма высоким. В группе МБР оно составляет 210:410 (или 51%), в  блоке БРПЛ – 210:209 (почти 100%) и в компоненте ТБ – по ТБ В-2А 10:10 (100%) и по В-52Н – 8:46 (или 17%).

3.Целесообразно постоянно ставить перед Соединенными Штатами и другими ядерными государствами, входящими в НАТО, вопрос о взаимном неприменении вместе с Россией ядерного оружия в первом ударе или договоренность о его неприменении вообще в виде юридически обязывающего бессрочного договора. Такую же формулу надо предложить принять США и КНДР. Пхеньяну и Токио следует вернуться к предложению о превращении Корейского полуострова в безъядерную зону. С целью снижения глубокой военной напряженности между Вашингтоном и Пхеньяном, между Сеулом и Пхеньяном, а также между Токио и Пхеньяном нынешнее руководство США, Японии и Южной Кореи должны дать КНДР на двусторонней или многосторонней основе юридически и политически обязательные гарантии о неприменении силы против Северной Кореи, а Северная Корея со своей стороны - о неприменении силы против США, Японии и Южной Кореи.

4.Следует более настойчиво ставить перед Дональдом Трампом вопрос о полном выводе всего ТЯО США из Европы и о его неразвертывании в Южной Корее и Японии. В нашем политическом лексиконе следует отказаться от термина «нестратегические ядерные вооружения», поскольку он маскирует особенность трех видов авиабомб тактического назначения, способных решать стратегические ядерные задачи.

5.В качестве промежуточного шага к цели неприменения ядерного оружия в первом ударе Москве и Вашингтону можно было бы перейти к стратегии «условного оборонительного ядерного сдерживания, которое никому не угрожает» в виде политической декларации с присоединением к ней Великобритании и Франции. Такие акции не потребовали бы каких-то финансовых ассигнований и каких-то сокращений СНВ, но ликвидировали бы опасность применения ядерного оружия.

6. В отношении Договора о ликвидации РСМД можно было бы придерживаться следующих принципов: первыми из него не выходить (об этом Россия уже заявила); перекройку российских СЯС не производить; ракеты, на ликвидации которых настаивает США, не уничтожать. Усилия США на этом направлении будут в основном фокусироваться не только на «ликвидации» несуществующей российской КРНБ, но и реально действующей российской МБР РС-26, которая договором 1987 года не охватывается. Одновременно надо продолжать подсчитывать все случаи нарушения Вашингтоном ДРСМД и доводить эти данные до мировой общественности. Без оглашения таких данных наша критика реальных нарушений Договора о ликвидации РСМД оединенными Штатами будет оставаться неполной и неконкретной.

7.Следует подвергать критике противодействие со стороны Вашингтона началу переговоров о предотвращении размещения оружия в космосе; отсутствие прогресса в ратификации ДВЗЯИ на национальном уровне, в том числе со стороны Вашингтона.

8. Следует предложить заключить многосторонний договор об ограничениях систем ПРО – с установлением максимальных пределов на ракеты-перехватчики и определением пространственных зон их размещения за пределами национальных территорий. Надо более решительно ставить вопрос о снятии с боевого дежурства оперативного комплекса ПРО США в Румынии и о вывозе всех ракет-перехватчиков, установленных на нем, на американскую территорию, а также о замораживании строительства аналогичного комплекса в Польше. С целью поддержания стратегической стабильности в мире следует договориться о соотношении между ударно-боевыми средствами ПРО и боезарядами СНВ России, США, Великобритании и Франции не более чем 2:1 или еще о какой-то иной пропорции.

9. Необходимо постоянно требовать от США и НАТО в целом полного прекращения операции «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», как провокационной и довольно опасной операции для национальной  безопасности России.

10. Следует более решительно ставить перед Вашингтоном и штаб-квартирой трансатлантического альянса вопрос о выводе всех видов их вооруженных сил, в особенности тяжелых видов вооружений, а также новых военно-штабных структур с территории европейских государств, развернутых там после 1 апреля 2014 года.

11. Наконец, необходимо предложить новому президенту США провести специальный российско-американский саммит по контролю над вооружениями, не отягощенный другими проблемами, несмотря на то, что соответствующих условий для его проведения в нынешних условиях пока нет.

12. Следует обратить внимание США, НАТО в целом, ООН и всего мирового сообщества, что шестнадцать нерешенных проблем в данной области должны быть поэтапно решены на основе принципа равной и неделимой безопасности сторон. По некоторым из них, не требующим безотлагательного решения, можно было бы определить общие принципы ограничений или сокращений.

Представляется важным организовать подготовку гражданских переговорщиков в МИД России по проблематике ракетно-ядерных и  иных вооружений через спецкурсы в МГИМО и Дипломатической академии МИД России.

В случае продолжения на каком-то этапе переговоров с США о сокращении СНВ следует учитывать, что на всех без исключения переговорах с СССР и Россией об ограничении и о сокращении таких видов вооружений американская сторона неизменно исходила и по-прежнему будет исходить из главной задачи: получения на них односторонних преимуществ в ущерб безопасности Российской Федерации. К сожалению, такой линии будут придерживаться и Дональд Трамп, и последующие президенты США.

В ходе каких-то новых переговоров с США по ограничению вооружений особенно важно беречь российские ракетно-ядерные средства преодоления системы ПРО США и НАТО, поскольку в случае продолжения переговоров о дальнейшем сокращении СНВ именно они будут активно «выбиваться» Вашингтоном.

Соединенным Штатам также нельзя позволить до бесконечности и бесконтрольно накапливать критическую массу избыточных ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных военных потенциалов, поскольку их острие будет главным образом направлено против России и КНР.

В складывающихся условиях решение российского военно-политического руководства о модернизации стратегического ядерного потенциала и высокоточных обычных вооружений является логически правильным и с военно-политической точки зрения целесообразным шагом, в особенности с учетом развития глобальной системы ПРО США и НАТО, включения России в список нанесения первого ядерного удара, а также угрозы Дональда Трампа применить ядерное оружие против КНДР.

 

В. Козин: Новое оружие США опасно для Крыма и ЛДНР

 

Две реактивных систем залпового огня (РСЗО) M31 GMLRS и М142 HIMARS, которые США планирует поставить на Украину, могут быть направлены на Крым и Донбасс, так как Киев не признает эти территории российскими. Таким мнением в беседе с URA.RU поделился член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ (АВН) Владимир Козин.

Ранее администрация президента США Джо Байдена согласилась передать на Украину РСЗО. Управляемые ракетные системы способны в кратчайшие сроки нанести удар по России. В интервью телеканалу Newsmax президент Украины Владимир Зеленский подчеркнул, что реактивные системы Киев не намерен применять на территории России.

«У системы М142 HIMARS дальность максимальной заявленной стрельбы — 300 км. У M31 GMLRS — 500 км. В интервью американским изданиям Джо Байден заявлял, что США не будет поставлять системы, которые могут достичь территории России, но не сказал, какие именно. Считаю, что эти заявления для нашей страны опасны, потому что ни Киев, ни США не признают Крым, как российскую территорию, а ДНР и ЛНР как самостоятельные государства. Это означает, что на практике они могут применить РСЗО против этих территорий. Киев может посчитать, что наносит удар в части своей страны, поэтому ситуация, сложная и тревожная», — объяснил Владимир Козин.

Спикер добавил, что американские управляемые реактивные системы залпового огня могут достичь и границ России. «В американских СМИ появились утверждения, что поставляемые системы не будут использоваться на максимальных расстояниях в 300-500 км, а только на 80 км, но для РФ это не имеет значения. Если огонь будет вестись в непосредственной близости от российско-украинской границы, хоть, например, в 10 км на Украине, в оставшихся 70 км они могут достигать до военных и гражданских объектов РФ. И как мы проверим, полетят реактивные снаряды на 80 км или на 300 — 500 км? Ведь российских инспекторов Киев не собирается пускать на американские системы», — подчеркнул Козин.

США и страны Запада начали увеличивать военную помощь после начала спецоперации России по демилитаризации и денацификации Украины, с целью — защитить жителей Донбасса. В Кремле заявляли, что поставки западного оружия на Украину угрожают безопасности всей Европы. 1 июня стало известно, что США планирует передать Украине 11-тый пакет военной помощи, включающего реактивные системы залпового огня (РСЗО).

Автор: Юлия Сычева. Источник: Ura.ru

 

В. Козин: Нынешнее украинское военно-политическое руководство полностью дискредитировало себя

Военный академик предложил Азарову, Медведчуку и Януковичу создать правительство в изгнании

Бывший премьер Украины Николай Азаров, оппозиционный украинский политик, председатель политсовета запрещенной на Украине ОПЗЖ Виктор Медведчук и экс-президент Украины Виктор Янукович должны создать «правительство в изгнании». Об этом в разговоре с URA.RU заявил член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин.

Ранее Виктор Медведчук опубликовал статью в российском издании «Известия». В ней политик, в частности, дает свою оценку последствий, которые могут возникнуть в ходе специальной военной операции.

«Николай Азаров, Виктор Медведчук и Виктор Янукович должны сформировать правительство в изгнании из своих граждан, а не из граждан Российской Федерации. Украина, хотя и ведет комбинированную украинско-натовскую агрессию против нас, она суверенная страна. У нее есть свой президент, своя судебная система и так далее. Решение с созданием такого правительства явно затянулось, но лучше поздно, чем никогда», — сказал Владимир Козин.

По его мнению, нынешнее украинское военно-политическое руководство в лице президента, премьер-министра, министров обороны и иностранных дел, а также ряда других лиц полностью дискредитировало себя, настроило граждан страны против себя. Также перечисленные политические деятели Украины нанесли стране огромнейший социально-экономический, финансовый, гуманитарный и духовный и непоправимый международный ущерб.

Военный член-корреспондент назвал статью Медведчука в целом правильной и актуальной, но обратил внимание на то, что холодная война не закончилась, она продолжается до сих пор и приобрела по вине США и их союзников по НАТО наиболее опасный характер в глобальном измерении. «Виктор Медведчук молодец, что начал высказываться публично. Он хорошо знает ситуацию в своей стране, причины, по которым Украина так глубоко упала в американский каньон. Николай Азаров должен чаще излагать свою точку зрения на страницах печати и электронных СМИ. Виктор Янукович мог бы более подробно на страницах печати или в интернете высказываться по существу проблем, стоящих в настоящее время перед их родиной, но эти публичные выступления должны содержать больше конкретных предложений, которые будут понятны и украинцам, и всем другим народам» — заключил собеседник агентства.

Источник:  Ura.ru

 

В. Козин: Обновление ядерной стратегии НАТО преследует две цели

 

Выступление ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе “Право голоса” на телеканале ТВЦ.

Впервые за десятилетия НАТО принимает новую ядерную концепцию. Причина – ядерная угроза со стороны России. Подробности концепции никто не знает, её держат в секрете.

Эфир от 29 мая 2019г.

В. Козин: Они готовы применять ядерное оружие по непонятным основаниям

США угрожают России подводными лодками с баллистическими ракетами

В акваториях вокруг российской территории находятся корабельные группировки США с ядерным оружием, заявил в эфире НСН член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин.

Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин в беседе с НСН заявил, что президент США может принять единоличное решение об использовании ядерного оружия, руководствуясь «непонятными» причинами. По его словам, в акваториях вокруг российской территории находятся корабельные группировки США с ядерным оружием.

Накануне координатор политики и исследований Международной кампании за ликвидацию ядерного оружия (ICAN) Алисия Сандерс-Закре сообщила, что США разместили 150 ядерных снарядов на авиабазах в Европе без каких-либо официальных заявлений.

«Слишком нервный господин Джо Байден, он обладает единоличным правом давать указание ядерным силам США применить ядерное оружие, не запрашивая даже решение Конгресса, не запрашивая решения на объявление войны вообще. Он может консультироваться, но не обязан выполнять отказы от Минобороны. Это очень опасный способ применения ядерного оружия. Любому американскому президенту никто в этом вопросе не указ и не препятствие. Также американцы сохраняют за собой право применить ядерное оружие в первом ударе, это с 1945 года действует, эта их стратегия. Ни один президент не отказался от этой возможности», - отметил Козин.

Собеседник НСН заметил, что в акваториях вокруг российской территории находятся корабельные группировки США с ядерным оружием, а также ракетоносные подводные лодки. По его словам, США могут воспользоваться и аэродромами своих союзников по НАТО в Европе.

«Они готовы применять ядерное оружие по непонятным основаниям – например, изменение региональной обстановки. Опасность очень серьезная. В акваториях вокруг Европы, в том числе и около нашей территории, находятся корабельные группировки США тоже с ядерным оружием, плюс ракетоносные подводные лодки с баллистическими ракетами. Конечно, у России есть система противоракетной обороны, но не вся территория страны имеет серьезную систему обороны от ракет, только крупные промышленные центры, Москва. Есть также противовоздушная оборона, но американцы используют аэродромы своих союзников по НАТО, в Европе это 19 аэродромов, это очень много», - заключил он.

Ранее стало известно, что Россия и США активно модернизируют арсеналы и увеличивают число развернутых боеголовок на фоне конфликта на Украине. Это следует из данных Стокгольмского международного института исследования проблем мира (SIPRI), передает Telegram-канал «Радиоточка НСН».

Автор: Ева Никитина. Источник: НСН

 

 

В. Козин: Они давно готовятся к войне

Британским военным предложили попрощаться с родными и готовиться к войне

Таблоид Daily Mail рассказал о подобных призывах британского офицера. А власти Эстонии заявили, что будут забирать у населения элитные внедорожники, чтобы использовать их в военных целях.

Какие настроения в Европе и готовы ли страны НАТО помочь Украине своими солдатами? Подробнее – в эфире телеканала Москва 24.

Источник: Москва 24  

В. Козин: Они постоянно приписывают нам первый ядерный удар

Ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО в программе “Открытый эфир” на канале “Звезда”.

Обвинениями России в готовности применить ядерное оружие США намерены прикрыть свои собственные приготовления. Вашингтон наращивает вооружения в районе Ближнего и Среднего Востока, а также сколачивает вооруженную коалицию против Ирана

Эфир от 23 сентября 2019г.

Полная версия программы на сайте канала

В. Козин: Они убивают людей по найму, добровольно, за деньги

Наемников, попавших в плен, нельзя обменивать на других граждан

Иностранные наемники не подпадают под действия Женевской конвенции, не могут пользоваться статусом военнопленных и поэтому их нельзя обменять. Об этом в беседе с URA.RU рассказал член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ (АВН) Владимир Козин.

«Наемники не имеют права пользоваться статусом военнопленных по Женевской конвенции (принята 12 августа 1949 года в целях защиты жертв войны — прим. URA.RU), на них не распространяются разного рода послабления. Это особая категория. Они убивают людей по найму, добровольно, за деньги. Что касается Украины, наемники пришли туда сами, их никто не звал, они граждане чужой страны. Они не служили в ВСУ. В рядах вооруженных сил Украины состоят те, кто был определен туда по приказу вышестоящего командования, имеет соответствующие звания, звезды, должности, кто давал присягу. А эти — „солдаты удачи“», — объяснил Владимир Козин.

Ранее власти Великобритании выразили обеспокоенность по поводу вынесения в ДНР смертного приговора двум британцам Эйдену Эслину и Шону Пиннеру. В заявлении премьер-министр Борис Джонсон отметил, что они имеют право на неприкосновенность. Однако официальный представитель МИД России Мария Захарова заявила, что это не распространяется на наемников. Верховный суд ДНР приговорил двух граждан Великобритании и одного из Марокко к смертной казни через расстрел. Спецоперация по денацификации и демилитаризации Украины началась 24 февраля. По словам президента России Владимира Путина, целью ее является защита жителей Донбасса от националистов.

Автор: Юлия Сычева. Источник: Ura.ru

 

В. Козин: Опасение о начале глобальной войны чрезмерно преувеличено

Чешская военная разведка опубликовала на своем сайте отчет за 2019 год, в котором говорится, что мир стоит перед угрозой новой мировой войны.

По мнению аналитиков, в настоящее время глобальный конфликт "находится на первой стадии".

"Формируется мировоззрение тех, кто сможет и желает активно участвовать в нем, и постепенно определяются технологические инструменты, с помощью которых им можно было бы управлять", – цитирует выдержку из документа РИА Новости.

В качестве возможной причины конфликта авторы доклада называют соперничество между США, Россией и Китаем.

В отчете также отмечается падение значимости международного права. Мирный диалог как способ решения возникающих противоречий отсутствует, а определенность мирового порядка поставлена под сомнение, указывают аналитики. По их мнению, росту напряженности способствует также манипулирование общественным сознанием.

В эфире радио Sputnik ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин прокомментировал публикацию. По его словам, пока нет серьезных оснований для развязывания третьей мировой войны.

"Считаю, что чрезмерно преувеличено опасение чешской разведки о начале такой войны. Во-первых, у РФ и США примерное равенство по ядерным боезарядам и носителям. У остальных государств, обладающих ядерным оружием, – гораздо меньше. Нет пока серьезных оснований для развязывания войны. Есть, конечно, политическое, военно-техническое противостояние. Но крупных конфликтов между великими ядерными державами нет. Кроме того, существует соглашение о предотвращении ядерной войны. Более того, существуют линии прямой связи – экстренной – на уровне глав государств и правительств между ядерными государствами. Поэтому такие страшилки, которые идут из Праги, мне кажутся не просто преувеличенными, а даже вредными. Но, разумеется, надо всегда держать порох сухим. Следить за военными приготовлениями государств, которые относятся враждебно к РФ и которые выдвигают ядерное оружие поближе к нашим границам", – сказал Владимир Козин.

Источник: радио Sputnik

В. Козин: Операция ВКС в Сирии подстегнула интерес к российскому оружию

В Генштабе РФ рассказали о высокой эффективности испытанного в Сирии российского вооружения. Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik отметил, что наша техника отлично себя показывает.

Более 200 образцов вооружения, испытанного в Сирии, показали высокую эффективность и доказали способность к выполнению поставленных задач, сообщил председатель Военно-научного комитета ВС РФ – заместитель начальника Генштаба генерал-лейтенант Игорь Макушев.

"За время проведения специальной операции апробировано более 200 образцов вооружения, которые показали высокую эффективность по результатам боевого применения и доказали способность к выполнению поставленных задач", – сказал Макушев на круглом столе, посвященном обсуждению сирийского опыта, на международном военно-техническом форуме "Армия-2017".

По его словам, проверка вооружения и военной техники в боевых условиях осуществляется на регулярной основе.

"Особое внимание при этом уделяется новым образцам вооружения, в том числе находящимся на стадии государственных испытаний, с целью своевременного выявления и оперативного устранения возможных производственных и конструктивных недостатков", – подчеркнул генерал.

По его словам, все испытанные образцы вооружения соответствуют заявленным характеристикам.

"Выявленные недостатки и отдельные неисправности не повлияли на выполнение боевых задач. В то же время по каждому проблемному вопросу проведен самый тщательный анализ, в том числе с привлечением представителей оборонно-промышленного комплекса, и выработаны исчерпывающие меры по устранению причин нештатной работы вооружения и военной техники", – сообщил Макушев.

Профессор академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik отметил, что российские военные не останавливаться на достигнутом.

"Наша техника отлично показывает себя. Но создатели и потребители российских вооружений – наши ВКС – воспринимают это не так, мол, "Ура! Мы ничего больше доводить и совершенствовать не будем", а все-таки делают выводы и собираются дальше совершенствовать новые системы вооружений. Это хороший признак. Так поступают все разумные люди", – сказал Владимир Козин.

По его мнению, успешная операция ВКС в Сирии отразится и на закупках российского оружия за рубежом.

"На экспорте нашей техники сирийская операция скажется весьма позитивно. Потому что различные покупатели российского оружия, в том числе потенциальные покупатели, внимательно следят за нашими новинками, особенно когда они применяются в условиях реальных боевых действий. Ракеты вызывают большой интерес, танки, вертолеты, истребительная авиация нового поколения. Так что закупки будут. Портфель заказов и так огромный, но думаю, что успехи российских ВКС в Сирии приведут к тому, что интерес возрастет в еще большей степени. Что ж российское оружие всегда было простым в изготовлении, но очень эффективным", – сказал военный эксперт.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: Полеты B-52 над Эстонией — очередная провокация США

Цель учений НАТО вблизи России – держать РФ и ее союзников в "военно-психологическом напряжении", считает эксперт Владимир Козин

Два стратегических бомбардировщика ВВС США B-52H, которые способны нести ядерное оружие на борту, осуществили тренировочные полеты вблизи российских рубежей в регионе Балтийского моря.

В учениях были задействованы авианаводчики из Литвы, Эстонии и Латвии, а также размещенные в странах Балтии подразделения НАТО.

Полеты американских стратегических бомбардировщиков B-52 в небе над Эстонией — очередная провокация США, призванная держать Россию и Беларусь в напряжении, считает профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин.

По его словам, американцы — известные провокаторы, и зачастую для своих провокаций они используют самые низкопробные методы. Именно к числу таких методов можно отнести учения с применением стратегической авиации, которая может нести ядерное оружие на борту, в непосредственной близости от российских границ.

>>Аудиофайл<<

"Такие полеты в районе Балтийского моря, даже с посадкой на базах Эстонии, в частности базе Эмари, которая способна принимать такие тяжелые стратегические бомбардировщики, говорят о том, что американцы вознамерились держать Российскую Федерацию и Белоруссию в определенном военно-психологическом напряжении", — считает эксперт.

Как отметил Козин в интервью Sputnik, несмотря на неоднократные заявления о готовности улучшать отношения и выполнять договорные обязательства между РФ и НАТО, американцы продолжают бряцать своим стратегическим и тактическим ядерным оружием.

Поэтому в новой ядерной доктрине США, финальная версия которой скоро увидит свет, говорится о том, что американцы будут продолжать размещать свои ядерные средства в зонах передового базирования, напомнил эксперт.

Как писал Sputnik, в четверг, 18 января, пресс-служба Сил обороны Эстонии сообщила, что на этой неделе в воздушном пространстве страны состоятся совместные военные учения с участием стратегических бомбардировщиков ВВС США B-52. В рамках учений американские летчики сбросят учебные бомбы (без взрывчатого вещества) на центральном полигоне Сил обороны Эстонии.

Источник: Sputnik 

В. Козин: Полеты отменяются

Россия выходит из Договора по открытому небу

Российская Федерация запускает процедуры по выходу из Договора об открытом небе. Страна имеет на это право согласно международным правоустанавливающим документам. После выхода из соглашения США присутствие в нем России стало нецелесообразным, заявили в МИД РФ. Какие это будет иметь последствия? И есть ли альтернатива договору?

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО, член-корреспондент В.П.Козин подробно изложил причины готовящегося выхода России из Договора по открытому небу.

Источник: радио Sputnik

В. Козин: Половина НАТОвских учений имеет открытую антироссийскую направленность

В чем настоящая цель учений НАТО «Защитник Европы — 2020»

Масштабные учения НАТО «Защитник Европы — 2020» стартуют уже в начале грядущего года. Маневры станут самой крупной переброской войск США на Европейский континент за последние 25 лет. Однако, как отмечает автор материала в Junge Welt, на самом деле страны-члены Североатлантического альянса «отрепетируют наступление на случай войны против России». «360» разбирался, в чем же истинный смысл этих учений и принято ли отвечать на подобные мероприятия.

Учения или репетиция наступления?

«Официально это учения войск США, но на самом деле страны-члены Североатлантического альянса отрепетируют наступление на случай войны против России», — пишет автор статьи в Junge Welt.

Из материала также следует, что в рамках «Защитник Европы — 2020» американцы намерены проверить эффективность логистики по пути движения войск в Европу, при этом важная роль в этом мероприятии отводится Германии.

«Учения будут отслеживаться»

В разговоре с «360» член-корреспондент Академии военных наук Российской Федерации, член-корреспондент Российской академии естественных наук, ведущий эксперт центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин рассказал, что такой практики, как ответ на военные учения, нет.

«Кто-то провел, потом мы проводим. Нет, такой практики нет. Просто есть заранее запланированные военные учения <…>, а есть такие внезапные проверки, типа тоже учения, они незапланированные — они поэтому и называются внезапные, потому что руководство высшее хочет проверить без всякой подготовки, без репетиций, насколько вооруженные силы готовы к выполнению своих прямых военных обязанностей», — объяснил Козин.

Он еще раз отметил, что ответа на эти учения не будет, но при этом добавил, что мероприятия «Защитника Европы — 2020» будут отслеживаться. По его мнению, было бы хорошо, если организаторы учений пригласили бы наших наблюдателей, но, как отметил Козин, очень часто бывает так, что государства Североатлантического союза российских наблюдателей на свои учения не приглашают.

«Это в основном касается учений, которые начинаются с использованием обычных видов вооружений, но которые потом, на завершающей их фазе, трансформируются в учения, когда применяется условное ядерное оружие», — рассказал Козин, подчеркнув еще раз, что такое оружие не реальное, а только условное. По его словам, тогда учения приобретают ядерный характер.

Говоря о высказанной в Junge Welt версии о том, что учения — это не что иное как репетиция наступления на Россию, Козин отметил, что в среднем «ежегодно в последнее время натовцы проводят около трехсот различных военных учений». По количеству это в два раза больше, чем было несколько лет назад.

«И вот из этих трехсот, которые сейчас уже ежегодно [проводятся], половина из них <…> имеет открытую антироссийскую и антибелорусскую направленность. То есть планируются: а — проведение наступательных операций на наши территории; б — даже отпочкование от нас Калининградской области, что вообще ни в какие ворота не лезет», — заметил Козин.

Говоря об учениях «Защитник Европы — 2020», Козин отметил, что они комбинированные — участвуют три вида вооруженных сил: суша, море, воздух.

«Они наверняка, это мое личное мнение, будут заканчиваться отработкой нанесения ударов с условным ядерным оружием. То есть перерастут потом в учения с применением ядерного оружия, но, естественно, в условном, как говорят, варианте. <…> Они будут отрабатывать операции по захвату плацдармов — то есть иметь наступательный, а не оборонительный характер. Но и обращает на себя внимание большое количество государств-членов НАТО, которые примут участие в этих учениях, и большое количество личного состава, который будет задействован», — рассказал «360» Козин.

Авторы: Валерия Шафирко, Ольга Нижельская, Источник: «360»

В. Козин: Помощь США затягивает конфликт, но победа России неизбежна

 

Палата представителей конгресса США утвердила выделение Украине дополнительного пакета помощи на сумму в размере почти 40 миллиардов долларов, из которых значительная часть – военная помощь.

На что пойдут эти деньги и помогут ли они Киеву? Зачем США затягивают конфликт и почему киевский режим саботирует любые переговоры?

Обо всем этом в интервью "Sputnik на русском" рассказал член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин.

Источник: Sputnik

 

В. Козин: Посещение президентом зоны СВО обозначает как контроль, так и поддержку

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе "ОТРажение" на канале ОТР.

Эфир от 24 апреля 2023г.

В. Козин: После выхода американцев и РФ этот договор утратил вообще какой-то смысл

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО дал комментарий в связи с официальным прекращением участия России в Договоре по открытому небу

Россия поставила точку и официально вышла из Договора по открытому небу (ДОН). Такое решение Москва приняла вслед за США. Теперь же зона, на которую будет распространяться соглашение, уменьшится примерно на восемьдесят процентов, констатировали в российском МИД.


В.П. Козин: “После выхода из этого акта американцев и РФ этот договор утратил вообще какой-то смысл. Оставшиеся страны и так всё знают про себя. Это был розовый, романтический период, когда мы подписали этот договорный акт со многими странами-членами НАТО, которые имеют самолёты-наблюдатели. Но сейчас всё, конец, дверка закрылась. Сейчас в воздушное пространство над нами они не могут вторгаться”.


Напомним, договор был призван укрепить доверие и безопасность между его странами-участницами, предоставляя право совершать облеты территорий друг друга для наблюдения за военной деятельностью. Москва принимала самое активное участие в его разработке. Какова дальнейшая судьба ДОН?

Источник: радио Sputnik.

В. Козин: Последствия окончательного выхода США из ДРСМД станут крайне негативными для всего мира

Военные атташе США и НАТО отказались от досмотра новейшего российского оружия в парке «Патриот»

Российское Министерство обороны решилось на «беспрецедентную транспарентность», организовав 23 января брифинг, в ходе которого полностью раскрыло технико-тактические характеристики новой крылатой ракеты 9М729. Именно она стала камнем преткновения в вопросе дальнейшей жизнеспособности Договора о ракетах средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД). США, как участник этого соглашения, обвиняют Россию в том, что создав это оружие, наша страна вероломно нарушила его условия.

Представители Минобороны, пригласив в подмосковный парк «Патриот» представителей военно-дипломатического корпуса государств ОДКБ, БРИКС, Евросоюза и НАТО, а также некоторых других европейских и азиатских стран, не только рассекретили данные о ракете, но и показали ее, хотя ранее МИД России называл такое развитие ситуации нежелательным.

Как пояснил генерал-лейтенант Михаил Матвеевский, ракета 9М729, как и ее предыдущая версия 9М728, снаряжается боеголовкой и заправляется топливом только в заводских условиях. Масса топлива при этом обеспечивает максимальную конструктивную дальность полета, а она ограничена требованиями ДРСМД (не более 500 километров). В войска ракеты поставляются уже в специальных контейнерах, поэтому изменение массы топлива и дозаправка ракеты в войсковых условиях невозможны. Российская армия только хранит эти ракеты, содержит их на пусковых установках и транспортно-заряжающих машинах и проводит регламентные работы. По сути, это всего лишь модификация заряда для «Искандера-М».

Однако военные атташе США и стран НАТО на брифинге отсутствовали. Официальные представители Евросоюза сослались на то, что формат данной встречи «не предполагал доверительного обмена мнениями». Информация об объяснениях американской стороны в лентах ведущих информагентств не отображена. Впрочем, еще 18 января в Вашингтоне объяснили, что осмотр 9М729 проводить не хотят потому, что статический осмотр ничего о ее дальности не скажет, а показательный запуск под контролем российских военных также не покажет реальный потенциал оружия.

Но это и понятно, ведь, как заявил в ходе брифинга замглавы российского МИДа Сергей Рябков, недавно Вашингтон на высшем уровне заявил о своем твердом и однозначном намерении выйти из договора по РСМД. «Практически сразу, — отметил он, — данное намерение нам подтвердили по двусторонним каналам, при этом было дано четкое пояснение, что объявленный шаг не является приглашением к диалогу, а решение принято по совокупности обстоятельств и является окончательным».

Естественно, военные сателлиты Америки не могли поступить иначе.

Может быть, действительно с 9М729 не все так просто, и на самом деле она далеко не та безобидная модификация «Искандера М», как ее представило Минобороны, раз американцы так упорно настаивают на ее уничтожении?

Однако профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин считает, что американцы привязались к ее характеристикам абсолютно необоснованно. В том, что ракета действительно не подпадает под терминологические определения ДРСМД, штатовцы могли убедиться задолго до брифинга Минобороны, ведь все технологические характеристики были переданы им российскими военными сразу после испытаний.

По словам эксперта, США привязались к ней потому, что им, во что бы то ни стало, нужно выйти из ДРСМД для создания собственной мобильно-грунтовой ракеты средней дальности наземного базирования с целью последующего ее размещения на территории своих натовских союзников. Тем более что средства на эти цели Конгрессом США уже выделены, а технологии от старых ракет еще живы, так что непосредственная разработка может начаться очень быстро, в форсированном режиме.

— По сути, США хотят повторить декабрьское решение от 1979 года, которое как раз привело к очень драматичному ракетному противостоянию между СССР и США, — разъясняет эксперт, — Они просто хотят произвести «хорошее впечатление» — мы, дескать, вынуждены выйти из договора.

Хочу отметить, что ранее американцы уже пытались «привязаться» к двум современным российским межконтинентальным баллистическим ракетам. По мнению США, их производство явилось нарушением ДРСМД. Однако Россия указала на то, что технические характеристики этих ракет вообще не подпадают под нормы этого договора. После этого вопрос о них сразу же был снят. Поэтому сейчас и «всплывает», второй раз уже, кстати, эта, по сути, оперативно-тактическая ракета 9М729. Кстати, не могу не отметить, что на практике-то Америка сама уже давно вышла из этого договора.

— Каким образом?

— При проверке эффективности собственных систем противоракетной обороны американцы последние 17 лет используют в качестве мишеней те самые ракеты, которые Договором об РСМД и запрещены. Хоть и без боезарядов, но в реальных условиях — с запуском, с перехватом, все, как полагается. И с 2001 года это нарушение США допустили аж 96 раз. А учитывая, что 17 января 2019 года у них появилась новая ракетная стратегия, это будет сделано еще 12 раз.

— Для чего же вдруг Америке понадобилось ракетное оружие средней и меньшей дальности? Это просто «поигрывание мускулами», или же тут преследуются какие-то иные цели?

— Думаю, что это намерение имеет более серьезные основания, чем просто желание накалить обстановку. Размещать новые крылатые ракеты, полагаю, будут не только в Европе, но и в азиатско-тихоокеанском регионе. Возможно, на территории Японии и Южной Кореи против КНДР.

— Значит ли это, что все потуги Америки договориться с северокорейским режимом потерпели полное фиаско?

— Да. Даже те минимальные договоренности между Пхеньяном и Вашингтоном, существующие на сегодняшний момент, будут разорваны. Встречаться, конечно, делегации США и КНДР между собой могут, но Пхеньян в этих условиях от разработки своей ракетно-ядерной программы отказываться не будет. Что вполне логично, американцы ведь открытым текстом назвали свою противоракетную стратегию обороной конкретно от КНДР, а тут еще замаячила тень распространения оружия средней и меньшей дальности по всему Земному шару.

— И каких последствий нам стоит ждать от подобных решений?

— Перспективы были плохими еще после одностороннего выхода США из договора по ПРО в 2002 году, а теперь, после окончательного выхода США из ДРСМД, они станут крайне негативными. Не только для США и России, но и для всего остального мира. Потому что наверняка появятся государства, которые пожелают заиметь ракетное ядерное оружие. Конечно, под удар сразу попадает договор о нераспространении ядерного оружия. Наверняка не будет ратифицирован проект еще одного международного договора — о нераспространении ядерных испытаний. Ведь США входят в группу из 44 обязательных государств-ратификантов этого договора, но, как мы теперь уже хорошо знаем, по итогам принятия своей новой ядерной стратегии от 2 февраля 2018 года американцы вообще отказались от его ратификации и готовят площадку для ядерных испытаний на своем невадском полигоне, чтобы проверять эффективность и новой наземной крылатой ракеты класса «Томагавк», и ядерных боезарядов малой мощности. По сути, не будет никаких сдерживающих пружин, «тормозные колодки» ядерного сдерживания полетят довольно быстро. Это подрыв глобальной стратегической стабильности, баланса ядерных сил, подрыв стабильности во всем мире.

— Чем на это придется отвечать России? Мы же вынуждены будем что-то сделать.

— Естественно, у России не остается никаких иных вариантов кроме симметричного ответа. Когда США вышли из договора по ПРО, мы тоже не стали выполнять прописанные в нем обязательства. Здесь будет ровно то же самое. Мы вполне свободно сможем создавать ракеты средней и меньшей дальности наземного базирования с ядерным и неядерным снаряжением, повышать их дальность, продолжать программу создания высокоточных систем гиперзвукового оружия, не ограниченного сейчас (и, видимо, теперь уже вообще никогда) никакими международными контролирующими актами. Само собой, под прицел российских ударных сил будут поставлены все те места, где появятся новые американские ракеты, причем уже неважно, будут они официально ядерными или неядерными, их же невозможно будет проверить.

России ни в коем случае, даже под угрозой выхода США из ДРСМД, нельзя уничтожать абсолютно никакие современные виды своего вооружения в любом варианте. Американцы, в своем запале, продавая дырку от бублика, требуют от нас целый бублик. Добрались ведь даже до «Авангарда», гиперзвукового высокоточного блока, который вообще никак не подпадает под ДРСМД.

— То есть в итоге мы довольно быстро получим второй Карибский кризис?

— Я бы уточнил — не второй, а уже четвертый. Помимо печально известного октябрьского кризиса 1962 года, американцы были готовы применить ядерное оружие против СССР в ходе Берлинского кризиса. Возможность развязывания ядерной войны против Северной Кореи можно считать третьим кризисом. Теперь будет четвертый.

— Насколько высока вероятность того, что в этот раз хэппи-энда уже не будет?

— Удержать ситуацию под контролем будет очень трудно. По двум обстоятельствам. Во-первых, президент США, неважно, Трамп это будет, или же кто-то другой, имеет право единолично принять решение о применении ядерного оружия в любое время в любом месте безо всяких санкций Конгресса, Госдепа и Минобороны, хотя Конгресс и принял резолюцию об ограничении этого права.

Второе обстоятельство — возможность применения так называемых маломощных ядерных боезарядов мощностью до 5 килотонн включительно. Подобная корректируемая авиабомба типа B61 12-й серии в Америке уже прошла все испытания и инженерно-технические проверки. Причем мощность ее боезаряда может достигать вообще 10 килотонн! Аналогичные боезаряды могут появиться и на подводных лодках класса Trident. Американцы считают, что такие заряды вполне можно применять, поскольку уровень заражения местности радиацией иной, но это есть движение к ядерному Армагеддону.

— А могут они появиться каким-то образом в наиболее «горячих» точках мира — в Сирии, в Афганистане, на Украине? И что по этому поводу может сказать мировая общественность? На чьей стороне будут ее симпатии?

— Это наиболее вероятный сценарий. Ведь НАТО в декабре прошлого года дали «зеленый свет» Штатам по выходу из ДРСМД своим решением от 5 декабря 2018 года. И тогда же на сессии Генассамблеи ООН вся натовская делегация выступила против проекта резолюции, обязывавшей Россию и США соблюдать ДРСМД.

Мировая же общественность, к сожалению, имеет двоякую точку зрения. Индивидуально такие серьезные натовские страны как Англия, Германия, Франция выступают за жизнеспособность ДРСМД. Но коллективная их позиция под эгидой НАТО совершенно противоположна. Мировая общественность действительно поверила в то, что Россия нарушает. Что именно — понять не может, но поверила «хорошим американцам». Но если бы мировая общественность знала всего лишь три цифры и одно обстоятельство, она бы поменяла свое мнение и заставила бы США соблюдать все договоры. Во-первых, повторюсь, 96 реальных нарушений ДРСМД с 2002 года. Во-вторых, американцы негативно отреагировали в отношении 12 двусторонних международных договоров о контроле за вооружением. В-третьих, между Вашингтоном и Москвой по вине первого существует 15 нерешенных проблем в сфере контроля над вооружениями. Наконец, президент США до сих пор имеет возможность единолично принимать решение о применении ядерного оружия где-либо.

— Почему же мировая общественность об этом не знает?

— К сожалению, следует признать, что на информационном поле Америка Россию переиграла. США активно использовали «нажимную» дипломатию и возможности распространения сведений практически на всех языках мира, включая даже пушту, на котором говорят исключительно в Афганистане и Пакистане. Нам нужно делать соответствующие выводы.

— С учетом всего вышесказанного получается, что «бахнуть» может теперь где угодно? Можно ли угадать, где именно?

— Да, бабахнуть может везде. И в Северной Корее, вздумай господин Трамп ударить ядерным зарядом по местам ядерного производства или административным и научным центрам КНДР. Может «рвануть» и в Европе, если, не дай бог, разместят еще ядерные ракеты на Украине. Может и в Афганистане сработать, где ядерное оружие будет применено против талибов. Против Ирана вполне могут использовать ракетное оружие, поскольку тот сохранил свою программу создания и испытания собственных баллистических ракет, что очень не нравится США.

Автор: Андрей Захарченко, Источник: “Свободная пресса”

В. Козин: Поставить перед американцами вопрос ребром — давайте договоримся не применять ядерное оружие друг против друга

В процессе оглашения своего последнего послания Федеральному собранию президент РФ Владимир Путин разразился небольшой, но крайне гневной по тону тирадой в адрес коллективного Запада. «Цепляют Россию то тут, то там без всяких причин, — констатировал глава государства. — Конечно, вокруг них сразу же, как вокруг Шерхана, крутятся всякие мелкие Табаки. Все как у Киплинга. Подвывают для того, чтобы задобрить своего суверена».

При этом гарант Конституции особо подчеркнул — организаторы любых провокаций, угрожающих коренным интересам России, пожалеют о содеянном так, как давно уже ни о чем не жалели. «Мы действительно не хотим сжигать мосты. Но если кто-то воспринимает наши добрые намерения как безразличие или слабость и сам намерен окончательно сжечь или даже взорвать эти мосты, должен знать, что ответ России будет асимметричным, быстрым и жестким», — резюмировал он.

Прозвучало все это, вне всякого сомнения, грозно.

Но что выходит на деле?

15 апреля с.г. Вашингтон вводит в отношении России очередной пакет санкций. В частности, запрещает американским компаниям напрямую покупать долговые обязательства нашего Центробанка, Фонда национального благосостояния (ФНБ) и Минфина. Параллельно «под раздачу» попадает 16 наших организаций и столько же физических лиц за якобы вмешательство в выборы в США, а еще 8 граждан и юрлиц — за деятельность на территории якобы украинского Крыма. Кроме того, десяти сотрудникам российской дипмиссии в Америке предписывается покинуть Штаты, поскольку они якобы никакие не дипломаты, а самые настоящие сотрудники кремлевских спецслужб. И по всему видно, что на этом рестрикции не закончатся.

Чем же отвечает Кремль, заставляя организаторов любых провокаций в адрес России жалеть о содеянном так, как они давно уже ни о чем не жалели?

Запрещает дипмиссиям условных «шерханов» и «табаки» в России нанимать на работу российских граждан. Высылает из страны десяток американских дипломатов, попутно отправляя полномочного посла на консультацию в Вашингтон, закрывает въезд в Россию восьми чиновникам администрации Белого дома, требует от США закрыть контролируемые их госдепом и другими госструктурами действующие в России фонды и НПО.

Все это нашим заокеанским партнерам, что слону дробина.

А могли бы мы стукнуть условным ботинком по условной трибуне ООН так, чтобы все «шерханы» и «табаки» реально увидели «Кузькину мать», узнали, почем фунт лиха, сколько в рубле алтын и как в нашей деревне кобыл объезжают? Ведь говорил же глава нашего МИДа Сергей Лавров о том, что у Москвы есть возможности принять болезненные меры для американского бизнеса, хотя пока их придержат «про запас».

О том, с какой легкостью Россия в теории может «прижучить» США, экономисты раструбили уже со всех трибун. Тут вам и запрет на поставки в США палладия и титана, и запрет работы на территории России крупных западных компаний, и закрытие нашего неба для пролета европейской и американской гражданской авиации, и отказ от поставок в Америку российских ракетных двигателей, без которых тамошняя NASA не может пока и шагу ступить. Нефтяные и газовые вентили, наконец, для наших «западных партнеров» тоже можно с легкостью прикрутить.

Ничуть не меньшими (а точнее — гораздо более широкими) возможностями показать Штатам и их союзникам «козу» Россия обладает и в дипломатической, а особенно — в военной сферах.

— Мы можем обратить внимание Вашингтона на нюансы нашей стратегии ядерного сдерживания — рассказал «СП» член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ, член Научного совета Национального института исследований глобальной безопасности Владимир Козин. — Напомню, что американская ядерная стратегия при любом президенте США всегда имела по отношению к нашей стране безусловный и наступательный характер. То есть они всегда оставляли и до сих пор оставляют себе возможность применять ядерное оружие в любое время в первом ударе по своему желанию.

У нас же ядерная стратегия, если использовать краткую формулировку, основана на условном оборонительном ядерном сдерживании. Иными словами, мы можем применить такое оружие только в ответ на прямое нападение противника с использованием ядерного и других видов ОМУ или с применением обычных видов вооружений, если под угрозу будет поставлено само существование нашего государства.

— Где еще мы можем воткнуть США «палки в колеса»?

— Не следует забывать, что с точки зрения нашей национальной безопасности пока никак не решается проблематика размещения и модернизации тактического ядерного оружия США, развернутого ими в Европе еще с пятидесятых годов прошлого века. Не исключено появление на этом континенте и в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе новых ядерных ракет США средней дальности.

Схожая ситуация проявляется и с продолжающимся развертыванием систем американской противоракетной обороны с комбинированными функциональными характеристиками, благодаря чему она может использоваться как в оборонительных, так и в наступательных целях. Ведь в эти пусковые установки можно загружать не только противоракеты SM-3, но и крылатые ракеты наземного базирования (КРНБ) «Томагавк». А в перспективе — и ударные гиперзвуковые средства. Не удивлюсь, если окажется, что в той же Румынии американские КРНБ уже стоят. Мы же, к сожалению, никак не можем это проверить, поскольку отсутствуют соответствующие договоры о проведении инспекций на таких объектах.

Также напомню, что Джозеф Байден не отказался от периодического направления своей тяжелой стратегической авиации поближе к нашим границам — как со стороны своих европейских союзников, так и со стороны Тихого океана. И здесь у нас тоже есть все возможности для доведения до Вашингтона нашей озабоченности по поводу таких провокационных акций и для симметричного ответа, чтобы за рубежом поняли всю серьезность нашей позиции, если американские визави будут продолжать подобную практику.

В такой ситуации представляется целесообразным ставить перед американской стороной вопрос о ее переходе на условное оборонительное ядерное сдерживание, которое никому не угрожает. А еще лучше, пока они размышляют на эту тему, предложить нынешней администрации США принять взаимное обязательство о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе.

— А они что, реально размышляют на эту тему?

— 15 апреля этого года два американских законодателя, а именно председатель Комитета по делам вооруженных сил Конгресса Адам Смит и член аналогичного комитета в Сенате Элизабет Уоррен внесли в Конгрессе законопроект о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе.

Это — здравое предложение. Его соавторы считают, что принятие подобного обязательства поможет предотвратить применение ядерного оружия в случае просчета или роковой ошибки. Если Вашингтон согласится с таким законопроектом, то можно было бы инициировать придание подобному обязательству универсального характера, побудив остальные семь существующих сегодня ядерных государств (Израиль в обладании ядерным оружием не признается — Ред.) присоединиться к нему.

СССР еще в начале 80-х годов прошлого века обращался к западным ядерным державам с предложением заключить соглашение о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе. Тогда эту идею, увы, никто на Западе не поддержал, и ее довольно быстро подзабыли.

Но мы можем вновь поднять этот вопрос и поставить перед американцами вопрос, как говорится, ребром — давайте договоримся не применять ядерное оружие друг против друга. Вы же имеете аналогичные взаимные обязательства с Францией и Великобританией, а мы — с Китаем, так что мешает договориться и нам, например, взять двусторонние, а затем и перекрестные обязательства?

Такое соглашение, во-первых, будет верифицироваться как минимум национальными техническими средствами контроля сторон, во-вторых, оно не потребует никаких расходов, как это неизбежно повлечет за собой реальное сокращение ядерных боезарядов. Таким образом мы получаем шанс со временем превратить ядерное оружие ненужное, потому что если его не надо будет применять друг против друга, то и не придется тратить деньги на создание его новых образцов, и появится реальный шанс постепенно перейти к оборонительному неядерному сдерживанию.

Автор: Андрей Захарченко. Источник: “Свободная пресса”

 

В. Козин: Принципиальная договорённость между НАТО и Турцией уже достигнута

Запад найдет способ склонить Турцию к снятию препятствий на пути Финляндии и Швеции в альянс

Условия, которые выдвигают власти Турции по вступлению Швеции в НАТО, невозможно выполнить, заявил шведский премьер-министр Ульф Кристерссон на конференции «Народ и оборона» в минувшее воскресенье. Ранее Верховный суд Швеции отклонил запрос Анкары на экстрадицию турецкого гражданина.

Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ (РАВН) Владимир Козин скептически  относится к возможному фиаско с вступлением Финляндии и Швеции в НАТО. По его мнению, Запад найдет способ склонить Турцию к снятию препятствий на их пути в альянс.

«В предновогоднем заявлении генсек НАТО Столтенберг заявил, что обе страны, и Швеция, и Финляндия в этом году, конкретно к июлю, когда состоится очередной саммит НАТО, будут приняты в альянс. Почему Столтенберг так уверен? Я думаю потому, что принципиальная договорённость между НАТО и Турцией по поводу ратификации соответствующих документов уже достигнута», — заявил Владимир Козин в эфире пресс-центра медиагруппы «Патриот».

Эксперт не рекомендует рассчитывать в этом вопросе на принципиальность турецкого правительства. По его словам, Эрдоган ведет себя двулично, поэтому эксперт не удивится, если в итоге Турция даст Финляндии и Швеции «зеленый свет» в НАТО.

Сомневается эксперт и в том, что НАТО грозит развал, а также в том, что военный альянс изменит свое отношение к России. Академик РАВН не исключает усиление антироссийской риторики руководства НАТО, особенно если пост генсека займет канадка украинского происхождения Христя Фриланд, кандидатуру которой сейчас бурно обсуждают в западной прессе.

«Если это произойдет, я не исключаю, что антироссийская позиция после смены караула в североатлантическом союзе еще в большей степени усилится», — заявил Владимир Козин.

Эксперт в области международных и российско-турецких отношений Керим Хас связывает процесс согласования вступления Швеции и Финляндии в НАТО с решением Турцией ряда важных задач. Прежде всего, обновления парка вооружений.

«У Эрдогана есть стратегические требования, сейчас он будет вести диалог с США по другим ключевым направлениям, например, по продаже США военных самолетов F-16 Турции. Поэтому придётся ждать реакцию Вашингтона в отношении требований Турции», — отметил Керим Хас.

По словам эксперта, президент Турции часто использует полемику с Западом для поднятия авторитета внутри страны. И сейчас, выступая против расширения НАТО, он преследует те же цели. Керим Хас не сомневается, что Эрдоган даст согласие на вступление Финляндии и Швеции, но сделает это тогда, когда ему это будет выгодно. Например, после выборов, когда актуальность темы противостоянию США в другим западным странам исчерпает себя.

«Эрдоган на 100% одобрит вступление Швеции Финляндии в НАТО, вопрос только во времени, когда он одобрит этот процесс: перед выборами в Турции или после выборов. Если выборы будут досрочными, в мае, например, возможно, после них Эрдоган одобрит этот процесс», — пояснил Керим Хас.

С предстоящими выборами эксперт связывает и намерение Эрдогана встретиться с президентом Сирии Асадом, чтобы обсудить вопросы урегулирования двусторонних отношений. По его мнение, делает это президент Турции, чтобы перехватить инициативу у оппозиции, которая использует тему восстановления отношений и решения проблемы сирийских беженцев в политической борьбе.

Источник: РИА ФАН

 

В. Козин: Принятие на вооружение этой МБР никак не нарушает действующий договор СНВ-III

Волевое дежурство: «Сарматы» встанут на вооружение армии РФ к концу года

Ядерный комплекс «Сармат» встанет на боевое дежурство в конце года. Об этом президент РФ Владимир Путин заявил 21 июня на встрече с выпускниками военных вузов — насколько сильной будет Россия, зависит не только от армии и флота, но и от адресатов обращения главы государства. Жилищное благополучие россиян — еще одна тема, которая фигурировала в рабочей повестке президента 21 июня. И если с боевым дежурством «Сармата» всё стало намного понятнее, то проблему массовой застройки и модернизации ЖКХ еще только предстоит решить: по словам Владимира Путина, в России надо возвести миллиарды квадратных метров жилья и заменить 40% коммунальных сетей.

«Очередная череда испытаний»

— Вы только что закончили учебу и прекрасно отдаете себе отчет в том, что каждый думающий человек в стране постоянно анализирует всё, что происходит внутри нашего государства и вовне, на внешнем контуре, — сказал президент РФ Владимир Путин, обращаясь к выпускникам военных вузов на встрече в Кремлевском дворце. — Всегда Россия шла через какие-то испытания, впрочем, так же, как и любой человек, который идет к своей цели, проходит через известные испытания, — всегда.

Сейчас для страны, продолжил глава государства, наступила очередная череда испытаний, но никаких сомнений в том, что мы будем еще сильнее, нет. Не последнюю роль в этом играют главные союзники России — армия и флот, которые, отметил Владимир Путин, совершенствуются во всех важнейших сегментах.

К примеру, в войска начали поступать не имеющие аналогов в мире комплексы противовоздушной и противоракетной обороны С-500, сообщил президент. Но главной новостью в этот день стало его заявление о том, что тяжелая межконтинентальная баллистическая ракета (МБР) «Сармат» уже в конце года встанет на боевое дежурство.

Впервые этот ракетный комплекс президент представил общественности в 2018 году — во время послания Федеральному собранию. Вместе с гиперзвуковыми ракетой «Кинжал» и ракетным комплексом «Авангард» «Сармат» стал ответом на выход США из Договора по противоракетной обороне (ПРО), который состоялся в 2002 году, и развертывание систем ПРО в Штатах и за рубежом.

«Сармат» пришел на смену советскому комплексу «Воевода». Как рассказал в конце мая 2022 года глава четвертого ЦНИИ Минобороны РФ Дмитрий Князев, новый комплекс включает «боевые блоки большого класса мощности и гиперзвуковые планирующие крылатые блоки». Но ключевое отличие «Сармата» от «Воеводы» в том, что он, доставляя меньшее число боеголовок, может двигаться по траекториям и такими способами, которые не дают передовым системам ПРО их уничтожить.

«Надеюсь, что до их применения дело не дойдет никогда, потому что ядерное оружие и ракетные средства его доставки — это последний уравнитель. Но сам факт наличия у нас этих сил является гарантией нашей безопасности», — заявил в начале июня глава госкорпорации «Роскосмос», которая отвечает в том числе и за создание баллистических ракет, Дмитрий Рогозин.

Первое испытание «Сармата» прошло в апреле 2022 года. По словам Дмитрия Рогозина, «Роскосмос» планирует провести еще минимум три испытательных пуска. После этого комплекс должен поступить на вооружение Ракетных войск стратегического назначения (РВСН) — подготовка к перевооружению уже идет в Ужурском ракетном соединении в Красноярском крае.

«Сармат» относится к новому виду оружия, которое не подпадает под существующие договоры о контроле над вооружениями. На сегодня в этой сфере остался единственный весомый документ — российско-американский Договор о стратегических наступательных вооружениях (СНВ-III). Он истекает в феврале 2026 года, и возможность его дальнейшего продления в соглашении не прописана. В июне 2022-го Госдепартамент США заявил, что хотел бы сохранить прописанные в СНВ-III лимиты и после его истечения, а также «ограничить новые типы ядерных систем, которые разрабатывает Россия».

— Принятие на вооружение этой МБР никак не нарушает действующий договор СНВ-III, — пояснил «Известиям» член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин. — США, к слову, также планируют в полном объеме заменить компоненты своей стратегической ядерной триады. При этом американские эксперты требуют от нас либо прекратить производство, либо не ставить МБР на боевое дежурство. Оба эти варианты уже невозможны, так как производство идет и решение о боевом дежурстве уже принято.

Так или иначе, замороженный с США диалог по разоружению — это не тот фактор, который заставит Москву от новых вооружений. В руководстве РФ считают, что превосходство Москвы в этой сфере снимает необходимость каких-либо договоренностей с Вашингтоном. Как заявил на днях Дмитрий Рогозин, ему «странно слышать разговоры о необходимости нового соглашения с США по сокращению стратегических ядерных вооружений», когда Россия перевооружает свою армию «Сарматами».

«Запрос колоссальный»

От военной темы Владимир Путин перешел к жилищно-коммунальным вопросам — во второй половине дня глава государства провел заседание президиума Госсовета по вопросам ЖКХ и вопросам строительства. Президент заслушал глав профильных ведомств и региональных губернаторов.

Сделать жилье более доступным и помочь людям улучшить жилищные условия — такова главная задача, которую он обозначил в начале встречи. По словам президента, в 2021 году в эксплуатацию было введено 92 млн кв. м жилья, в новые квартиры въехали более 4 млн семей. Главным подспорьем в этом стала льготная ипотека, однако в нынешнем году таких кредитов было выдано в три раза меньше, отметил Владимир Путин. Поэтому, продолжил он, надо снизить ставку с 9 до 7%.

— В целом необходимо обеспечить объем ввода жилья в этом году не ниже уровня прошлого года, а прирост ипотечного портфеля не менее чем на 2,5 трлн рублей, — распорядился президент. — Понятно, что далеко не все могут купить квартиру или дом, поэтому регионам при поддержке правительства нужно активизировать строительство жилья, которое сдается внаем, причем предусмотрев возможность его последующего приобретения с помощью льготной ипотеки или в рассрочку.

По словам Владимира Путина, в плане обеспеченности людей жильем Россия по-прежнему отстает от других стран.

— Чтобы решить проблему жилья, нам нужны действительно сотни миллионов, в общей сложности несколько миллиардов квадратных метров нового жилья. Запрос на такое жилье, а прежде всего на новое качество жизни, у людей колоссальный, — сказал он.

Во вступительной речи Владимир Путин обратил внимание еще на одну проблему — модернизация ЖКХ. Общий износ сетей составляет более 40%. Для решения этой проблемы принимались разные решения — в первую очередь в работе с управляющими компаниями: им давали то больше, то меньше полномочий; создавали условия для конкуренции и возвращались к единому центру управления.

— Но, как показала жизнь — и думаю, что главы регионов со мной согласятся, — мы не добьемся реальных изменений в повышении качества услуг ЖКХ до тех пор, пока всё это хозяйство висит на старой, обветшавшей инфраструктуре, — сказал президент. — Задача конкретная — добиться ежегодного снижения доли ветхих сетей.

По его убеждению, решение лежит в масштабном обновлении сетей, а для этого к их модернизации надо привлечь «солидные инвестиции». Ресурсы — металл, техника — для замены сетей в России есть, отметил Владимир Путин; модернизация загрузит строительную и смежные отрасли, создаст на годы вперед рабочие места. Программа должна стартовать в конце 2022 – начале 2023 года — правительство должно продумать ее параметры и определить источники финансирования, резюмировал президент.

Авторы: Екатерина Постникова, Афанасий Лавриненко. Источник: “Известия”

 

 

В. Козин: Провокации США могут подтолкнуть Россию к ряду ответных мер

Провокационные высказывания, звучавшие в США, могут подтолкнуть Россию к ряду ответных мер вплоть до разрыва дипломатических отношений, заявил член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин.

Так в эфире медиацентра «Патриот» он прокомментировал рассуждения официальных лиц Пентагона касательно нанесения «обезглавливающего удара» по Кремлю.


В.П. Козин: Даже Адольф Гитлер не позволял себе бросаться подробного рода угрозами в отношении советского руководства… Самый крайний мощный шаг после этого — это разрыв дипломатических отношений, потому что такие высказывания со стороны официальных лиц нынешней американской администрации — это вещь очень серьезная.


 

В. Козин: Продление СНВ-3 может стать базой для углублённого и интенсивного диалога о будущем контроле над вооружениями

Сделан важный шаг в направлении укрепления стратегической стабильности

Продление Договора СНВ-3 благоприятно скажется на международной обстановке и будет способствовать развитию процесса ядерного разоружения.

Президент России Владимир Путин подписал в минувшую пятницу Федеральный закон «О ратификации Соглашения о продлении Договора между Российской Федерацией и Соединёнными Штатами Америки о мерах по дальнейшему сокращению и ограничению стратегических наступательных вооружений от 8 апреля 2010 года». Двумя днями ранее соглашение о продлении СНВ-3 на пять лет, внесённое главой государства, единогласно ратифицировали депутаты Государственной Думы и члены Совета Федерации.

Федеральным законом ратифицируется соглашение о продлении договора между РФ и США о мерах по дальнейшему сокращению и ограничению стратегических наступательных вооружений, заключённое 26 января 2021 года между Россией и США в форме обмена нотами.

Договор СНВ-3, напомним, был подписан на срок 10 лет в Праге 8 апреля 2010 года, вступил в силу 5 февраля 2011 года и действует до 5 февраля 2021 года. Новым соглашением предусматривается продлить документ на пять лет – до 5 февраля 2026 года.

Договор представляет собой пакет документов, в который входят собственно договор, протокол к нему и приложения к протоколу. Договором устанавливаются ограничения и предельные уровни стратегических наступательных вооружений (СНВ); положения, касающиеся охвата, размещения, инспектирования, переоборудования и ликвидации СНВ; положения, связанные с мерами доверия, информационным обменом, использованием национальных технических средств контроля, сотрудничеством с третьими странами. Положениями протокола и приложений к нему конкретизируются статьи договора и предусматривается порядок его выполнения.

Договор распространяется на существующие типы тяжёлых бомбардировщиков (ТБ), межконтинентальных баллистических ракет (МБР) и баллистических ракет подводных лодок (БРПЛ), в том числе МБР и БРПЛ в неядерном оснащении в случае их создания, а также пусковые установки (ПУ) МБР и БРПЛ. Договором предусматривается, что имеющиеся у Сторон суммарные количества СНВ не должны превышать:

• 700 единиц для развёрнутых МБР, развёрнутых БРПЛ и развёрнутых ТБ;

• 1550 единиц для боезарядов на развёрнутых МБР, боезарядов на развёрнутых БРПЛ и ядерных боезарядов, засчитываемых за развёрнутыми ТБ (при этом за каждым развёрнутым ТБ условно засчитывается по одному ядерному боезаряду);

• 800 единиц для развёрнутых и неразвёрнутых ПУ МБР и БРПЛ, а также развёрнутых и неразвёрнутых ТБ.

Реализация соглашения не потребует дополнительных бюджетных ассигнований федерального бюджета и отвечает национальным интересам Российской Федерации. Продление договора позволяет сохранить транспарентность и предсказуемость стратегических взаимоотношений России и США, поддержать стратегическую стабильность в мире, а также благоприятно скажется на международной обстановке и будет способствовать развитию процесса ядерного разоружения.

«Красная звезда» обратилась к признанному специалисту по вопросам стратегической стабильности - ведущему эксперту Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России Владимиру Козину с просьбой высказать своё мнение о достигнутой с США договорённости.

 


РОССИЙСКАЯ ФЕДЕРАЦИЯ

ФЕДЕРАЛЬНЫЙ ЗАКОН

О ратификации Соглашения о продлении Договора между Российской Федерацией и Соединенными Штатами Америки о мерах по дальнейшему сокращению и ограничению стратегических наступательных вооружений от 8 апреля 2010 года

Принят Государственной Думой 27 января 2021 года

Одобрен Советом Федерации 27 января 2021 года

Статья 1

Ратифицировать Соглашение о продлении Договора между Российской Федерацией и Соединенными Штатами Америки о мерах по дальнейшему сокращению и ограничению стратегических наступательных вооружений от 8 апреля 2010 года.

Статья 2

Настоящий Федеральный закон вступает в силу со дня его официального опубликования.

Президент

Российской Федерации В.Путин

Москва, Кремль 29 января 2021 года № 1-ФЗ


 

Владимир Козин:

 – Принципиально важным в продлении Договора СНВ-3 является тот факт, что, наконец-то, американская сторона осознала реальную значимость этого соглашения и пошла на его пролонгацию без сомнительных предварительных условий и дополнений, завышенных требований, которые безуспешно пыталась навязать нашей стране администрация Дональда Трампа в течение практически всех четырёх лет пребывания у власти.

Новое американское военно-политическое руководство во главе с Джозефом Байденом проявило довольно ответственный подход, чтобы отделить архиважные проблемы стратегической стабильности и контроля над вооружениями от политической конъюнктуры, а также от непрофессиональных пожеланий, преследовавших получение односторонних преимуществ исключительно для американской стороны.

Военно-политическое и геополитическое значение продлеваемого договора заключается в том, что он остаётся в том неизменном виде, в каком был подписан в апреле 2010 года в Праге и вступил в силу после обмена ратифицированными грамотами сторон 5 февраля 2011 года. Все заявления и оговорки сторон, а также военно-политические и военно-технические элементы пакета ратификационных документов сторон также остаются в силе.

Продлеваемый документ сохранит максимальные лимиты на количество ядерных боезарядов стратегического назначения по 1550 для каждой стороны и по 800 их оперативно развёрнутых и оперативно неразвёрнутых носителей. Он не запретит сторонам модернизировать свои национальные ракетно-ядерные системы и оставит в неизменном виде согласованный в договоре адекватный инспекционный механизм проверки его соблюдения. Договор СНВ-3 в продлённом виде не ограничит состав, структуру и возможность модернизации подобных вооружений Российской Федерации. Он также не запретит России создавать новые перспективные виды и типы вооружений, которые радикально укрепляют её национальную оборону и безопасность.

Россия рассчитывает использовать пять лет существования Договора СНВ-3, чтобы развернуть с Соединёнными Штатами углублённый и интенсивный диалог о будущем контроле над вооружениями по многим направлениям, а на каком-то этапе и переговоры по выработке Договора СНВ-4.

В Российском МИД подчёркивают, что будущие договорённости в рамках договора возможны только на сугубо паритетной и равноправной основе. Хотя на Смоленской-Сенной площади знают, что США проявляют беспокойство по поводу российских перспективных систем вооружений стратегической дальности, тем не менее отмечают, что в данном вопросе существуют только «поля для диалога», а не площадки для формулирования односторонних уступок в ущерб интересам национальной безопасности России.

Одновременно Москва предлагает Вашингтону на основе расширения стратегической повестки дня выработать «новое уравнение безопасности», которое учитывало бы эволюцию военно-технических и военно-политических аспектов безопасности и включало бы в него все наступательные и оборонительные ядерные и неядерные вооружения.

При условии скрупулёзного соблюдения этого договора Соединёнными Штатами продлеваемый военно-политический акт может послужить активным инструментом для поддержания стратегической стабильности в мире и безопасности в глобальном измерении, а также стать основой для последующего сокращения СНВ сторон и дать стимул к достижению других договорённостей в области контроля над вооружениями.

Автор: Мария Томиленко, Источник: «Красная звезда»

 

В. Козин: РФ и Китай значится в американских ядерных стратегиях как потенциальный объект для нападения

В 2021 году исполнилось 25 лет Договору о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний (ДВЗЯИ). За это время его подписали 185 государств, но без одобрения восьми стран документ до сих пор так и не вступил в силу. О том, кто и почему не хочет отказываться от испытаний ядерного оружия (ЯО), — в материале «Известий».

Запретный договор

Подписантам ДВЗЯИ запрещено проводить испытательные ядерные взрывы, а также побуждать к этому другие страны или участвовать в таких взрывах. Этого нельзя делать ни на земле, ни под землей, ни в космосе, ни под водой. И хотя документ подписали уже 185 стран (последней в феврале 2021 года была Куба) и ратифицировали 170 (последними тогда же стали Коморские острова), а в мире действует глобальный мораторий на ядерные испытания, юридически обязывающего запрета до сих пор нет.

Без вступления договора в силу не может начать работу Организация ДВЗЯИ, которая будет заниматься верификацией прописанного запрета и проводить мониторинг. Пока же действует подготовительная комиссия (ПК) ОДВЗЯИ, главная задача которой — работать над тем, чтобы документ все-таки начал полноценно действовать.

В приложении 2 к договору обозначен список из 44 стран, чьи подписание и ратификация обязательны для того, чтобы он вступил в силу. В этот список входит в том числе и Россия — свою подпись она поставила в 1996 году, ратифицировала документ в 2000-м; сейчас на ее территории действует 29 станций мониторинговой системы ядерных испытаний из планируемых 32. Из 44 критически важных для договора государств ДВЗЯИ не ратифицировали восемь: Китай, КНДР, Египет, Индия, Иран, Израиль, Пакистан и США.

Выступая 20 декабря на онлайн-лекции в российском ПИР-Центре, замгенсекретаря ООН Идзуми Накамицу в очередной раз призвала оставшиеся страны как можно скорее одобрить документ. «Установление сроков могло бы помочь в этом направлении, но нам необходимо принять не одну меру для ускорения ратификации соглашения, а целый комплекс для того, чтобы побудить страны сделать это», — сказала она, не уточнив при этом, о каких мерах идет речь.

Как рассказали «Известиям» в ПК ОДВЗЯИ, ее исполнительный секретарь Роберт Флойд твердо намерен встретиться с представителями всех восьми стран, чтобы понять, что мешает им ратифицировать документ и как эти препятствия могут быть сняты.

— Пять из восьми стран (КНР, Египет, Иран, Израиль и США. — «Известия») уже подписали договор. Они активно участвуют в заседаниях подготовительной комиссии и проводят регулярные консультации по широкому кругу вопросов, включая и темы, относящиеся к ратификации, — отметили в ПК ОДВЗЯИ. — Многие из этих стран уже значительно поддерживают договор и обозначенный в нем режим верификации. Есть множество других государств, которые проявили интерес к ратификации договора, и ПК работает с ними, оказывая им техническую и другого рода поддержку.

Однако попыток подготовительной комиссии может быть недостаточно. Отказ некоторых государств запретить у себя ядерные испытания связан в том числе и с их недоверием — в первую очередь друг к другу.

США и Китай

«Я хочу сразу же ясно дать понять, что США поддерживают Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний», — заявила в сентябре этого года замгоссекретаря США по контролю над вооружениями и международной безопасности Бонни Дженкинс. По ее словам, «на этом пути есть серьезные препятствия» — в том числе и ратификация документа рядом стран. Однако, как показала практика, главное препятствие — это сенат США, который не пропустил документ в 1999 году. Президент Барак Обама постарался поднять этот вопрос в 2009-м, но тогда большинство принадлежало республиканцам, и вновь проводить документ через конгресс не стали.

В 2020 году The Washington Post сообщала, что администрация Дональда Трампа обсуждала возобновление ядерных испытаний — это мог быть первый такой взрыв с 1992 года. Однако от этой идеи всё же отказались, предпочтя «другие ответы на российскую и китайскую угрозы».

В России, призывая страны ратифицировать ДВЗЯИ, главный упор делают именно на США. Так, в 2020 году на фоне сообщений американских СМИ МИД РФ назвал позицию Вашингтона наиболее деструктивной. Да и сейчас американские заявления Москва воспринимает без особого доверия.

— Обещания ратифицировать ДВЗЯИ последние 25 лет звучали при всех американских президентах, кроме Дональда Трампа, — сказал «Известиям» российский высокопоставленный источник, знакомый с ситуацией. — Вместе с тем пока нет никаких реально значимых шагов со стороны Вашингтона, которые могли бы свидетельствовать о том, что можно было бы рассчитывать на ратификацию ДВЗЯИ со стороны США.

Главный геополитический противник Штатов — Китай — увязывает свою ратификацию с шагами Вашингтона. Пекин внес ДВЗЯИ в парламент еще в 2004 году, на территории КНР действует четыре мониторинговые станции, однако дальше этого дело не идет.

— КНР не ратифицировала документ потому, что этого не сделали США, которые обвиняют Пекин в модернизации стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений, — пояснил «Известиям» член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин. — Более того, наравне с РФ Китай значится в американских ядерных стратегиях как потенциальный объект для нападения в первом ядерном ударе.

 

Индия и Пакистан

Еще одна пара стран, чье противостояние объясняет их отказ от ядерных испытаний, — это Индия и Пакистан. Оба государства не стали подписывать Договор о нераспространении ядерного оружия (ДНЯО) 1968 года, который лежит в основе современной архитектуры безопасности.

Как пояснили «Известиям» в постпредстве Индии при ООН в Вене, Нью-Дели участвовал в разработке ДВЗЯИ, однако не смог к нему подключиться, поскольку документ «не снял с повестки ряд обеспокоенностей, которые выражала Индия». При этом там обратили внимание на то, что страна придерживается моратория на ядерные испытания.

В постпредстве Пакистана в Вене на просьбу «Известий» прояснить позицию Исламабада не ответили. Эксперты увязывают его отказ от ДВЗЯИ с индийским фактором, который считается главным локомотивом пакистанской ядерной программы.

Израиль, Иран и Египет

Третья пара противников — Израиль и Иран подписали ДВЗЯИ одними из первых. В отличие от всех других обладателей ядерного оружия, еврейское государство отрицает наличие у него ЯО; оно не присоединилось к ДНЯО и официально не объявило о моратории на ядерные испытания. При этом у него есть соглашение с ПК ОДВЗЯИ по работе в Израиле Международной системы мониторинга.

Тегеран международный мониторинг к себе так и не пустил. Предыдущий исполнительный секретарь ПК Лассина Зербо, чтобы удержать США в ядерной сделке с Ираном, даже высказывал в беседе с агентством Reuters идею включить ратификацию ДВЗЯИ в ее условия, но этого не произошло. В итоге Штаты из соглашения вышли, и сейчас главный вопрос в том, удастся ли его реанимировать (очередной раунд переговоров на этот счет начался в Вене 27 декабря 2021 года).

Египет — самая неочевидная страна из всех, что не ратифицировали договор, хотя бы потому, что у него нет ядерного оружия. Его главное условие в том, что на Ближнем Востоке должен утвердиться режим нераспространения ЯО. Для этого к ДНЯО должен присоединиться Израиль, а закрепит этот режим создание в регионе зоны, свободной от оружия массового уничтожения (ЗСОМУ). Над этим члены ДНЯО бьются с 1995 года, главное препятствие на пути к такой зоне — категорическое неприятие со стороны еврейского государства.

КНДР

Самая закрытая из всех стран, КНДР, остается в стороне от формальных режимов контроля за ядерным оружием: она вышла из ДНЯО, а ДВЗЯИ даже не подписывала. При этом в 2018 году Пхеньян всё же объявил мораторий на ядерные испытания. Его соблюдение (как и всю свою ядерную программу) Северная Корея увязывает в первую очередь с позицией США.

Так, в январе 2020 года южнокорейское агентство «Ренхап», ссылаясь на советника постпредства КНДР при отделении ООН в Женеве Чжу Ён Чхоля, сообщило: из-за «жесточайших и негуманных санкций» США республика «не видит оснований, чтобы и далее быть связанной в одностороннем порядке обязательствами» по мораторию. Тем не менее Пхеньян его по-прежнему соблюдает — по официальным данным, последнее испытание ЯО он провел в сентябре 2017 года.

В экспертном сообществе уверены: одних усилий подготовительной комиссии для вступления ДВЗЯИ в силу недостаточно — для этого страны должны согласиться между собой. По мнению Владимира Козина, единственный выход в том, чтобы все девять ядерных держав (пять официальных и четыре неофициальные) либо перекрестно, на двусторонней основе, либо в многостороннем формате договорились друг с другом о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе (первый ядерный удар прописан, в частности, в американской доктрине). Такой вариант выглядит утопическим и практически нереализуемым. И уж если такие переговоры и начнутся, то вступление ДВЗЯИ в силу будет скорее дополнительным бонусом, нежели их итоговой целью.

Автор: Екатерина Постникова. Источник: “Известия”

 

В. Козин: Радужных картин пока не видно

Уже официально. Договор между РФ и США о сокращении стратегических наступательных вооружений продлен до 2026 года. Москва и Вашингтон обменялись соответствующими нотами, говорится в заявлении МИД России. Будут ли возобновлены переговоры по другим международным соглашениям в области безопасности? Узнаем в эфире радио Sputnik у член-корреспондента академии военных наук РФ Владимира Козина.

Источник: радио Sputnik

В. Козин: Размещение ракет в Европе сведет на нет усилия по контролю над вооружениями

Страны НАТО проигнорируют послание Путина о неразмещении ракет РСМД в Европе

Президент России Владимир Путин направил в столицы нескольких десятков стран (в том числе участникам НАТО) послание с предложением ввести мораторий на размещение ракет средней и меньшей дальности (РСМД) на территории Европы, пишет «Коммерсант» со ссылкой на собственный источник. Этот же источник говорит, что НАТО не рассматривает предложение Москвы всерьез, так как считает, что Россия ракеты на своей территории уже развернула. Опрошенные Russian Deadline эксперты сходятся во мнении, что размещение ракет в Европе начнет новый виток в гонке вооружений и повысит риски начала ядерной войны.

Письмо с предложением моратория получили все члены НАТО, Китай, глава внешнеполитического ведомства ЕС Федерика Могерини и генсек НАТО Йенс Столтенберг.

«Россия уже объявила о своем решении не размещать ракеты средней и меньшей дальности в Европе или других регионах, пока от этого будут воздерживаться американцы. Призвали США и их союзников взять на себя аналогичные обязательства, однако встречной заинтересованности пока не наблюдаем. Призываем вас поддержать наши усилия, выступив в пользу объявления в рамках НАТО моратория на развертывание РСМД наземного базирования, аналогичного тому, которое объявила Россия», — пишет Путин в своем послании.

Впрочем, это послание не может возыметь какой-то удовлетворительный ответ, что понимает и сам президент, считает президент Академии геополитических проблем, доктор военных наук Константин Сивков. Об этом он рассказал в беседе с Russian Deadline:

«Это послание — демонстративный шаг, чтобы показать свое миролюбие. Президент понимает, что ракеты будут размещены в Европе в любом случае, — говорит Сивков. — Начнется еще более масштабная гонка вооружений, а ракеты, о которых идет речь и их размещение в Европе значительно повышают риск ядерной войны».

О значительном риске использования ракет РСМД говорит и профессор академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин. Он рассказал Russian Deadline о том, что Вашингтон нарушил Договор о ликвидации РСМД от 1987 года 117 раз, о чем свидетельствуют официальные пресс-релизы Пентагона и доклады исследовательской службы конгресса США. При этом, доказать нарушения договора Москвой Штатам не удалось, говорит собеседник.

«Такое развертывание ракет может привести к обострению отношений между Москвой, Вашингтоном и столицами других стран-участников НАТО. Размещение ракет в Европе сведет на нет усилия по контролю за вооружением, — говорит Козин. — Дело в том, что сейчас США уже продемонстрировали негативное отношение к 13 договорам в сфере контроля над вооружением, в том числе касательно ядерного оружия».

Собеседник усомнился в использовании ядерных ракет в мирное время, однако в случае конфликтных ситуаций это может стать серьезным вызовом для европейской безопасности.

Подобное предложение с введением моратория на развертывание ракет в Европе поступало и ранее, однако ответа не последовало. Источник «Коммерсанта» в МИД одной из стран альянса объясняет это так: «Российские власти предлагают нам ввести мораторий на развертывание ракет средней и меньшей дальности, в то время как сами они на своей европейской части такие вооружения уже развернули. Это нонсенс». Ранее западные СМИ писали о том, что России развернула ракеты на своей европейской части, однако доказательств этому не последовало.

Напомним, 2 февраля 2019-го после взаимных обвинений в нарушениях США объявила о выходе из Договора о ликвидации РСМД, а 2 августа договор официально прекратил свое действие.

Договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности был подписан Михаилом Горбачевым и Рональдом Рейганом 8 декабря 1987 и подразумевал следующее: стороны должны были уничтожить все комплексы баллистических и крылатых ракет наземного базирования средней (1000—5500 км) и меньшей (от 500 до 1000 км) дальности, а также не производить, не испытывать и не размещать такие ракеты в будущем. В соответствии с Договором стороны в течение трёх лет должны были уничтожить все пусковые установки и ракеты наземного базирования с радиусом действия от 500 до 5500 километров, включая ракеты как на европейской, так и на азиатской территории СССР. Важно отметить, что РСМД подразумевают размещение ядерных боеголовок.

Автор: Владимир Онищенко, Источник: Russian Deadline

В. Козин: Разрыв “ядерной сделки” с Ираном – грубейшая ошибка Трампа

Выступление ведущего эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО Владимира Козина в программе «Время покажет» на Первом канале.

В студии  говорят о важности сохранения иранской сделки и пытаются понять, какое место займет Россия в новой системе мировых координат.

Самой обсуждаемой темой в мире остается односторонний выход Соединенных Штатов из Совместного всеобъемлющего плана действий или, проще говоря, из соглашения по ядерной программе Ирана. Именно благодаря ему три года назад Тегеран свернул ядерные разработки в обмен на снятие санкций.

Страны Евросоюза подтвердили свое решение продолжить соблюдение условий соглашения по иранской ядерной программе, несмотря на выход США. Важность сохранения иранской сделки с точки зрения международной безопасности обсудили Владимир Путин и Ангела Меркель в ходе телефонных переговоров 10 мая. Эта тема стала главной и во время телефонного разговора лидеров России и Турции. Оба выразили решительный настрой на дальнейшее сотрудничество в рамках соглашения с другими его участниками.

Эфир от 11 мая 2018г.

 

В. Козин: Раскол в НАТО

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе “Открытый эфир” на телеканале “Звезда”.

В студии обсуждают флорентийскую международную конференцию “Нет войне, нет НАТО”. В Европе появились серьезные силы, которые обвиняют Североатлантический альянс в военных преступлениях. Италия - первая на очереди! Кто еще?

Эфир от 24 апреля 2019г.

В. Козин: Расширение НАТО на Восток можно было не допустить

В апреле отмечается печальная - двадцатая годовщина начала расширения НАТО на Восток. Важно подчеркнуть, что именно Альянс приблизился к России, а не наоборот.

На очереди Грузия, Украина и Македония. Свои двери НАТО держит открытыми, особенно для тех, кто конфликтует с Россией.

Руководство Альянса не внемлет призывам и предостережениям России. Конечно, главная ошибка была допущена раньше. При Михаиле Горбачеве, и потом во время заключения Договора о РСМД. Россия тогда уничтожила в два с половиной раза больше ракет, чем США. За этот дисбаланс можно было потребовать законодательного запрета расширения НАТО на Восток.

Источник: ИА ИнфоРос

 

В. Козин: России не надо вести переговоры о сокращении ядерных вооружений

 

В последнее время в СМИ все чаще обсуждается вероятность применения ядерного оружия той или иной страной.

Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин прокомментировал в эфире Baltnews непростую обстановку на международной арене и предположил, кому это выгодно.

Источник: Baltnews

В. Козин: России чужая земля не нужна

Член научного совета Национального института исследований глобальной безопасности, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России Владимир Козин прокомментировал очередные "страшилки" о российской угрозе странам Балтии.
 
По словам политолога, никаких планов вторжения в страны Балтии у российского руководства нет, не было и не будет.
 
"У России столько земли, сколько нет ни у одного другого государства земного шара. Нам чужая земля абсолютно не нужна", — сказал Владимир Козин в интервью Sputnik Эстония.
 
Комментируя недавний доклад Джеймстаунского фонда о некой "угрозе", которую якобы представляет Россия для Литвы, Латвии и Эстонии, эксперт МГИМО отметил, что подобные документы имеют цель выбить как можно больше средств из государств-членов НАТО на военные нужды.
"А цель номер два — обеспечить постоянное и масштабное военное присутствие ведущих государств альянса на территории стран Балтии", — пояснил Козин.
 
Особенно, по его словам, это касается США, которые давно мечтают о новых военных базах дополнительно к уже имеющимся. А третья цель, как полагает эксперт МГИМО, это сохранение в неизменном формате провокационную операцию НАТО под названием "Балтийское воздушное патрулирование".
 
"Напомню, что все крупные ядерные державы альянса — Великобритания, США, Франция — направляют на патрулирование свои самолеты двойного назначения, которые могут нести как обычные, так и ядерные виды вооружений", — рассказал Козин.
 
Четвертая цель, по мнению политолога заключается в том, чтобы запугать население стран Балтии и заставлять их больше тратить на военные нужды.
 
"И последняя цель — это постоянная обработка населения стран Балтии для усиления милитаристских приготовлений", — добавил Владимир Козин.
 
Как писал Spitnik Эстония, Джеймстаунский фонд представил аналитический доклад старшего научного сотрудника организации Ричарда Хукера "Как защитить страны Балтии?" Автор документа призывает НАТО разработать сценарий отражения "российской агрессии" через захват Калининградской области.
 
Ранее в Москве неоднократно напоминали, что военная доктрина РФ имеет исключительно оборонительный характер. По словам главы МИД России Сергея Лаврова, в альянсе прекрасно об этом осведомлены, а миф о "российской угрозе" используется для наращивания военного присутствия у российских границ.
 
 
Источник: Радио Спутник-Эстония
 
Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/45327

 

 

 

 

В. Козин: Россия в военном плане остаемся врагом №1 для США и Североатлантического союза

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе «ОТРажение» на канале ОТР.

Ведущий: Александр Денисов.

Эфир от 28 декабря


Александр Денисов: Сегодня исполняется 125 лет со дня рождения маршала Конева, бравшего Берлин, освобождавшего Прагу, «Маршала Вперед», как его называли за стремительность в проведении операций. Известно высказывание Ивана Степановича, что «солдат – слово собирательное: это и рядовой, и сержант, и офицер, и генерал, и маршал».

Единым солдатским, так сказать, кулаком мы действуем и сейчас в зоне специальной военной операции. За минувшие сутки экипажи вертолетов Ми-35 и Ми-28 уничтожили замаскированную бронетехнику врага и его командные пункты. Действуют экипажи на предельно малой высоте, в 5–7 метров над землей, чтобы не дать себя обнаружить для ПВО противника. Поражают командные пункты ВСУ и места сосредоточения техники на скорости 200 километров в час. На этот раз выполнили задание и ушли невредимыми, но вот во время одного из вылетов по вертолету была выпущена ракета, экипаж увернулся, но осколки пробили обшивку.

ВИДЕО

Бортовой техник вертолета Ми-35М: Он очень живучий, соответственно, повреждения видите какие. Он пришел с ними, экипаж живой, и машина дальше войдет в строй. Но заплатки – это не самое главное, он получил внутренние повреждения: это перебита проводка, это перебиты блоки, которые потом заменялись либо ремонтировались. Соответственно, вся проводка отремонтирована, блоки агрегата отправлены на ремонт, что-то восстановили, что-то заменили, и все.

Александр Денисов: Характерное отношение к военной технике, «живучий», как к живой. Ну действительно, помогает, жизнь спасает.

На связи со студией Владимир Петрович Козин, член-корреспондент Российской академии военных наук. Владимир Петрович, добрый день.

Владимир Козин: Да, здравствуйте, Александр.

Александр Денисов: Добрый день.

Владимир Петрович, вы знаете, вот все в голове сидит. Однажды в эфире, это было несколько лет назад, приходил к нам эксперт, и он высказывал мнение, показавшееся тогда несколько странным. Он сказал, что нужно обязательно строить танки в достаточном количестве, бронетехнику, гаубицы. И возникло недоумение у многих, и у меня в том числе: казалось бы, в век стратегического оружия, серьезных таких сил куда эти танки? На них через Атлантику не переплывешь.

А вот жизнь-то повернулась и оказалось, что большая-то дубина отложена в сторону, а боевые действия ведутся как раз теми же самыми танками, гаубицами. Вот у вас представления о войне за этот год подкорректировались или нет? Или так и предполагали, что стратегическое оружие – оно для того, чтобы лежать на полке, без применения?

Владимир Козин: Александр, вообще-то, когда я достиг определенного сознательного возраста, закончил институт, у меня всегда было резко отрицательное отношение к Соединенным Штатам Америки, а после создания Североатлантического союза и к НАТО, поскольку, занимаясь профессионально натовским направлением в российском МИД, я понял по документам, по высказываниям, по конкретным объективным данным, т. е. количественном состоянии техники, Военно-воздушных сил, Военно-морских, БТРов и т. д., понял, что это готовится не для войны с внеземными цивилизациями – это готовится против тогда, когда Советский Союз был, против Советского Союза, после распада в 1991 году, как известно, против Российской Федерации.

Почему я так был настроен? Да потому что в 1945 году в декабре месяце американцы и англичане, они разрабатывали план нанесения первого ядерного удара американскими ядерными средствами по территории тогдашнего Советского Союза. У них уже тогда были атомные авиабомбы, которые они в практическом плане использовали против Японии в августе того же 1945 года. И в декабре 1945 года готовили удар по Советскому Союзу. И потом эти планы постоянно менялись в худшую сторону. В худшую по той причине, что в них по мере накапливания ракетно-ядерных вооружений США...

Александр Денисов: Владимир Петрович, простите, что я вас прерываю, – сейчас мы перенаберем вас, чтобы получше слышать, потому что сейчас звук глуховат, попробуем перенабрать и как раз продолжим разговор. Простите, что прервал, сейчас девушки свяжутся из аппаратной.

Да, действительно, эту же мысль высказал и президент, когда его спрашивали о степени вовлеченности (сейчас как раз перенабираем Владимира Петровича), о степени вовлеченности Америки в конфликт. И президент сказал: да всю эту историю, в т. ч. и во времена СССР работали институты и продумывали, как им все это осуществить, как нас сначала разделить, а потом стравить. И в определенной мере они успеха этого достигли. Но у нас выбора, конечно, нет. Так что это, безусловно, интересный вопрос, сейчас вот с Владимиром Петровичем мы продолжим на эту тему разговор. Владимир Петрович? Да, и по-прежнему у нас не слышно Владимира Петровича... Сейчас будем восстанавливать связь. Ну что ж, такое бывает, технические накладки, прямой эфир.

И вот тоже любопытен исторический контекст. Наверняка у многих зрителей, да у всех, в течение этого года возникал вопрос, почему мы действуем осторожно, ну как, даже выражение появилось «одной рукой», «в белых перчатках воюем». Это тоже определенная историческая традиция. Вот с Владимиром Петровичем проследим и наши действия тоже на Западной Украине и в годы войны, оказывается, тоже были интересные примеры, вот эти примеры приводил Сидор Ковпак по прозвищу «Дед», командир, как мы со Львовом разбирались, там тоже предупреждали жителей.

А уж что касается Петра I, так удивительные совпадения: если мы заглянем в историю, полистаем страницы, то возникнет ощущение, что это про нынешние времена, когда Петр I четко запрещал солдатам что-то брать, не оплатив продовольствие, провиант, фураж у местного населения.

Владимир Петрович, вот сейчас, надеюсь, все у нас будет хорошо со связью. Вот что касается хода этого противостояния, вы как раз развивали мысль, что за это время у вас не менялись представления, вы понимали, что рано или поздно столкновение произойдет, т. е. вот к этому клонили мысль.

Владимир Козин: Ну конечно, потому что все американские ракетно-ядерные доктрины, все заявления Североатлантического союза на самом высшем уровне, т. е. на саммитах, они предполагали, что врагом №1 будет являться поначалу Советский Союз, а потом, после распада СССР, Российская Федерация. Правда, сейчас, в последнее время иногда в документах НАТО и в документах американской военной политики на первом месте называется Китайская Народная Республика, она стоит на первом месте, в частности, в последних стратегических установках Джозефа Байдена, а Россия на втором. Но тем не менее мы все равно в военном плане остаемся врагом №1 для Соединенных Штатов Америки и для Североатлантического союза.

А те огромные виды вооружений, и обычных, и ядерных, которые имеются в ядерной тройке натовской, США, Великобритания, Франция, обычных видов вооружений, география размещения в основном в зонах передового базирования, т. е. близко от наших границ, говорит о том, что США и НАТО никогда не были партнерами, коллегами, как мы их ошибочно считали очень-очень долгое время. И даже вчера я опять слышал «западные партнеры» – ну это неправильно, согласитесь.

Александр Денисов: Владимир Петрович, если анализировать вот события в зоне специальной военной операции за этот год, с каким сердцем тяжелым, скрепя сердце, мы приступали к бомбежкам, к ударам по стратегической инфраструктуре, инфраструктуре двойного назначения на Украине. И казалось это удивительным для всех. Но если полистать историю, то совсем ничего удивительного.

Вот во времена Петра в ходе Северной войны, как раз где со шведами мы разбирались на той же Украине, он четко запрещал солдатам брать провиант, фураж, не оплатив его, т. е. это было ни в коем случае, нельзя было ни мародерить, ничего, с этим четко разбирались. А ситуация была прямо зеркальная, как и сейчас: Запорожская Сечь, казаки, они были вот тем вариантом того времени батальона «Азов» (Запрещено в России (ред.)), жестко разбирались с населением, чтобы оно не поддерживало русских, под предводительством Мазепы все это было осуществлено. Петр в итоге с Сечью разобрался, ну как мы сейчас с нацистами. То есть действовали предельно аккуратно касательно населения.

Вот во время Второй мировой войны. Сидор Ковпак в своих мемуарах описывает, что, прежде чем бомбить Львов, там листовки разбрасывали, чтобы жители видели: будут бомбардировки, предупреждали их. Вот так же действуем и сейчас аккуратно. Вот эта наша традиция вас удивляет? Казалось бы, в таких обстоятельствах можно было отойти. Или нет?

Владимир Козин: Нет, эта наша традиция правильная, щадить гражданское население, которое находится на территории противоположной стороны. Конечно, боже упаси, никаким мародерством, никакими сечениями, никакими пытками военнопленных никогда не занимались, не занимаемся и заниматься не будем.

Что же касается уничтожения критически важной инфраструктуры, то это, как правило, производится в тот период времени, когда, скажем, на электроподстанциях, еще на каких-то точках уже люди не работают, ночное, вечернее время или раннее утреннее, вот. Но выхода нет, потому что идет серьезное противодействие украинско-натовской агрессии против теперь Российской Федерации. Я уже говорил в одной из ваших передач, что она началась именно против России, когда к нам присоединились еще четыре новые территории в качестве полноправных субъектов после Республики Крым в 2014 году.

Поэтому я считаю, что нанесение ударов по критически важным объектам, но не социального значения, на Украине должно быть продолжено с нашей стороны. Потому что они занимаются еще худшим вариантом – они постоянно наносят удары по гражданскому жилому фонду, именно по гражданским объектам социальной инфраструктуры. Ну то есть тут уже, как говорят, выбирать не приходится.

Но тем не менее, в отличие от ВСУ, наши Вооруженные силы – это настоящие Вооруженные силы: это мужественные и одновременно благородные и честные люди, которые, жертвуя собой, все равно пытаются спасать и тех же военнопленных, и тех же гражданских лиц, которые находятся на украинской территории. Мы никогда не опустимся до того состояния, до которого опустились Вооруженные силы Украины. Это не армия – это сброд убийц, сброд ненормальных, обкуренных людей, которые считают своим долгом именно издеваться над гражданским населением в городах, поселках той части, которая не контролируется украинской властью.

Поэтому, если мы вспомним все 24 февраля этого года, когда наш президент заявлял о начале специальной военной операции, он там употребил два слова: противодействие насилию и противодействие геноциду. Вот слово «геноцид» мы вообще забыли, о том, что такое слово существует в политическом лексиконе, а его расшифровка была дана в документах Организации Объединенных Наций вскоре после окончания Второй мировой войны. Студия?

Александр Денисов: Владимир Петрович, как различается картина противостояний, картинка даже, которую получаем мы и которую получают наши противники в зоне как раз боев? За этот год, мы знаем, все спутники американские и некогда любимого нами Илона Маска, сколько у него там, 3 тысячи на это работают, все брошено. У нас в этом, конечно, пробел оказался серьезный. Вот по картинке боя, которую они получают и мы, сильно она различается? И как это сказывается?

Владимир Козин: Которую они получают?

Александр Денисов: Да.

Владимир Козин: Я редко видел это, потому что мы мало показываем с использованием их кинохроники или видеоматериалов, вот. Но могу предположить, что это шапкозакидательство: «Завтра освободим Донбасс, послезавтра Республику Крым, все вернем, расчленим Россию на части, заберем еще несколько российских приграничных с Украиной областей и добьемся победы, Запад нам поможет».

Но мы более реалистически смотрим на происходящее, так, и я считаю, что мы добьемся победы. Мы добьемся победы, но, конечно, не завтра и не послезавтра, потому что противник огрызается, довольно сильный. Но тем не менее, тщательно обдумывая все свои ходы, когда, допустим, демонстрируя активную оборону с нашей стороны, когда, наоборот, проводя постепенные небольшие наступательные операции или взятие противника в клещи или в котлы... Ну конечно, добьемся.

Единственное, что я бы обратил внимание еще раз, много раз говорил: ни в коем случае нельзя допускать пополнения украинских Вооруженных сил западными видами вооружений, которые поступают из-за рубежа. Правильно сказал бывший посол Донецкой Народной Республики (если ошибся, извините) Мирошник... помню, но уже забыл, извините за старость...

Александр Денисов: Ничего-ничего.

Владимир Козин: ЛНР или ДНР, но неважно.

Александр Денисов: ДНР.

Владимир Козин: Мирошник сказал: надо отрезать раз и навсегда вот эту пуповину, этот поток оружия, который идет на Украину со стороны натовских и некоторых ненатовских государств, ну просто любыми средствами, тогда это ускорит достижение победы.

И ни в коем случае не идти навстречу разного рода коврижкам и пряникам насчет переговорного процесса. Нас уже неоднократно обманывали. Минские соглашения – это просто вопиющий пример обмана Российской Федерации. Если вы, уважаемые телезрители, и вы, Александр, еще раз посмотрите текст Минских соглашений, формулировки просто дикие. Это не соглашение – это типа призывы, вот, которые не имеют практической отдачи и не имеют никаких наказаний за их нарушение. Что, собственно, и случилось: их никто не выполнял, никто не выполнял, все 13 пунктов, кроме одного, когда производился обмен военнопленными с той и с другой стороны. Поэтому...

Александр Денисов: Владимир Петрович, вы знаете, насчет Минских соглашений хорошо сказала Мария Владимировна Захарова, она говорит: вот, как ни странно, мы оказались самыми главными сторонниками целостности Украины, мы стремились ее сохранить, в т. ч. и с помощью Минского процесса, чтобы все-таки она существовала. И президент же говорил, что, как только дернитесь на Донбасс, это будет конец украинской государственности, в общем, что и происходит. И Мария Владимировна верно подметила, что мы все предпринимали, чтобы она осталась целостной и мирной, чтобы люди продолжали там жить. Но вот...

Владимир Козин: Ну вот напрасно принимали усилия, чтобы она оставалась мирной, демократической, нейтральной относительно Российской Федерации. Мы проморгали этот момент. И все те наши организации, которые причастны к исследованию, к анализу, как ведет себя Украина, скажем, в какой-то определенный хронологический отрезок времени, должны сделать очень серьезный вывод о том, что надо российское высшее руководство информировать так, как обстановка свидетельствует, так, как она показывает. Не нужно демонстрировать, что «все хорошо, прекрасная маркиза», как пел Утесов в одной известной песне.

Александр Денисов: Спасибо большое, Владимир Петрович! Владимир Козин, член-корреспондент Российской академии военных наук, был у нас на связи.

 

В. Козин: Россия останется врагом Альянса на долгие десятилетия вперед

В своем материале, цитируемом российскими СМИ, немецкая газета Die Welt утверждает, что пандемия коронавируса снижает уровень боеготовности войск НАТО в странах Балтии. Хоть число инфицированных солдат невелико, программу учений пришлось сократить. При этом РФ проводит запланированные маневры в Западном военном округе в обычном порядке, отмечает издание.

 Автор статьи пишет, что ситуация с COVID-19 стала поводом для целого потока фальшивых новостей о заболевших солдатах или о секретных лабораториях биологического оружия.

В интервью Sputnik профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин отметил, что это временное явление, поскольку после пандемии НАТО не только восстановит свою активность, но и будет наверстывать упущенное.

"Как только закончится пандемия, НАТО возобновит свою активность, причем не в прежних объемах, а даже больше. Альянс был вынужден сократить часть военных учений из-за распространения коронавируса и бросится наращивать упущенное. Поэтому всплеск можно ожидать довольно значительный, он превзойдет традиционные объемы военной активности.

Дело в том, что в итоговых документах Североатлантического альянса, которые были приняты на целом ряде саммитов НАТО, как раз говорится, что НАТО видит свою угрозу номер один именно в лице России, поскольку Россия граничит в Европе со многими государствами – членами альянса. Для того чтобы поменять свою политику в другом географическом направлении, нужно проводить специальный саммит НАТО, чтобы отменить ранее принятые решения на встречах верхов альянса. Как вы понимаете, это произойти не может никогда. Военно-политическое руководство НАТО никогда на это не пойдет, потому что оно будет выглядеть очень смешным", – заявил эксперт.

Козин считает, что Россия останется врагом альянса на долгие десятилетия вперед.

Источник: Sputnik  

В. Козин: САЩ са нарушили Договора за ракетите със среден и малък обсег 117 пъти за 20 години

Американците все още не са доказали, че Русия е нарушила Договора за ракетите със среден и малък обсег, въпреки че се оттеглят от него. За сметка на това документите на Конгреса и Пентагона сочат, че Щатите не са се съобразили със споразумението 117 пъти за последните 20 години. Това каза Владимир Козин, водещ руски военен анализатор от Центъра за военно-политически изследвания към Московския държавен университет за международни отношения, в предаването „Светът е бизнес“ с водещ Николай Кръстев.

„Нищо хубаво няма да последва от излизането от договора на САЩ“, посочи Козин.

„В Европа отново ще се появи атомно оръжие, както през 1979 г., по решение на НАТО“.

Според Козин Русия и НАТО могат да се върнат към предишните си отношения при няколко условия, част от които са отказът на Алианса от антируската реторика и промяна във военните доктрини на НАТО, които предвиждат използването на въоръжените сили на Алианса срещу Русия.

Козин коментира и милитализирането на Черноморския регион. Той отбеляза, че се появяват големи военноморски сили на страните членки на НАТО, включително и нови структури на българска територия. Според него руската страна не е преминала към милитаризация в региона, тя разполага военните си части по източната му част, която е нейна територия.

„Трябва да се върнем към старата ситуация – Черно море трябва да е мирно море и с ниско военно равнище на взаимна основа“.

Експертът се спря и на закупуването на руските системи за противоракетна отбрана C-400 от Турция. Анкара се превръща във военно-политически партньор на Москва за борба с тероризма в зоната на Сирия, отбеляза той.

Източник: Bloomberg TV Bulgaria

В. Козин: СНВ-3 и стратегическая стабильность

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин принял участие в тематической программе журнала «Международная жизнь»

После того, как новый президент США Джо Байден срочно принял решение о продлении Договора СНВ-3 с Россией, ситуация немного разрядилась, но перспективы ядерного сдерживания остаются одним из главных вопросов мировой политики. И не только в плане взаимоотношений между Россией и США. Ядерные вооружения – это вопрос, который сегодня касается целого ряда государств, и рано или поздно проблема должна выйти на коллективное обсуждение. О некоторых важных её аспектах в программе «Что происходит?» журнала «Международная жизнь» рассказывает ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин. Программу ведет обозреватель журнала Сергей Филатов.

Эфир от 19 февраля 2021 г.

В. Козин: СНВ-III важен для укрепления международной безопасности

Военный эксперт оценил заявление Блинкена по ДСНВ

Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин прокомментировал в беседе с RT заявление кандидата на пост госсекретаря США Энтони Блинкена касательно договора о сокращении и ограничении стратегических наступательных вооружений (СНВ-III).

Козин подчеркнул, что новая администрация США пока не изложила условия продления договора. По словам специалиста, она может повторить те предварительные условия, которые выдвигала уходящая администрация Дональда Трампа и которые оказались для России «полностью неприемлемыми».

«Нужны конкретные детали, причём детали, которые уважают интересы Российской Федерации в области национальной обороны и безопасности. Будем ждать, что он (Джозеф Байден. — RT) или его уполномоченные представители выскажут по данному вопросу», — отметил эксперт.

Козин пояснил, что договор СНВ-III важен для укрепления международной безопасности и стратегической стабильности, особенно в сфере ядерных вооружений.

«Но только в том случае, если он будет в дальнейшем скрупулёзно и в полном объёме выполняться новой американской администрацией», — заключил он.

Ранее кандидат на пост госсекретаря США Энтони Блинкен высказался о возможности продления договора о сокращении и ограничении стратегических наступательных вооружений (СНВ-III).

Он отметил, что этот вопрос будет решаться «практически сразу же после того, как Джозеф Байден займёт пост президента».

В декабре после пресс-конференции президента России Владимира Путина, который напомнил о готовности Москвы работать над соглашением, спецпредставитель президента США по контролю над вооружениями Маршалл Биллингсли заявил, что Вашингтон «пять раз предлагал, в том числе письменно, встретиться, чтобы окончательно оформить сделку по заморозке/продлению».

Замглавы российского МИД Сергей Рябков заявил, что Россия готова договариваться с США о сокращении стратегических наступательных вооружений, но подписывать акты о капитуляции не намерена.

Автор: Анастасия Румянцева.  Источник: RT

 

В. Козин: США будут "глубоко переживать" из-за сделки Филиппин с РФ

Россия поставила Филиппинам партию оружия, боеприпасы, а также армейские грузовики. Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik выразил мнение, что США вряд ли оставят без внимания сотрудничество Манилы с Москвой.

Россия поставила Филиппинам партию продукции военного назначения, включая стрелковое оружие, боеприпасы к ним, а также армейские грузовики.

Церемония передачи прошла в порту Манилы на борту большого противолодочного корабля "Адмирал Пантелеев" Тихоокеанского флота ВМФ России, передает корреспондент РИА Новости. На ней присутствовали министр обороны России Сергей Шойгу и президент Филиппин Родриго Дутерте.

Накануне правительства двух стран подписали соглашение о военно-техническом сотрудничестве (ВТС). Подписи под документом поставили Шойгу и его филиппинский коллега Делфин Лорензана.

В ходе визита на Филиппины министр обороны России провел семь двусторонних и многосторонних переговоров с коллегами из стран АСЕАН и "СМОА плюс".

Профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik отметил, что ранее Филиппины закупали значительную часть вооружений у США, и вряд ли Вашингтон оставит без внимания соглашение Манилы с Москвой.

"То, что Россия поставляет определенные партии оружия Филиппинам – это нормальная международная практика. Любые страны мира имеют право продавать определенные виды вооружений. Конечно, американская сторона по этому поводу будет глубоко переживать. Потому что США занимают первое место по продаже обычных видов вооружений. Россия находится на втором месте. Естественно, у американцев по этому поводу постоянная головная боль. Но как-то ограничить Россию в вопросе поставок вооружений у них не получится", – сказал Владимир Козин.

Военный эксперт подчеркнул, что Россия в отличие от США при поставках оружия другим странам придерживается установленных правил. При этом он напомнил о появившихся накануне сообщениях со ссылкой на сирийских военных, что на складах боевиков в Сирии обнаружено оружие стран НАТО.

"Существуют определенные правила, и Россия их выполняет. Вопросы возникают к Западу – почему так случилось, что очень многие страны-члены НАТО через государства, которые не симпатизируют Сирии, направляли огромнейшие партии наступательных и тяжелых вооружений террористическим группировкам. Немудрено, что террористы более пяти лет денно и нощно вели масштабные войны с сирийской армией. Поэтому США, прежде чем высказывать какие-то возмущения по поводу поставок российского оружия Филиппинам или еще каким-то государствам, пусть лучше сначала посмотрят на себя", – заключил Владимир Козин.

Отряд кораблей ТОФ в составе БПК "Адмирал Виноградов", "Адмирал Пантелеев" и танкера "Борис Бутома" прибыл в Манилу несколько дней назад. В среду Дутерте побывал в сопровождении Шойгу на "Адмирале Пантелееве". Планируется, что российские корабли пробудут в Маниле до 26 октября.

Всего корабли ТОФ совершат девять неофициальных визитов и деловых заходов в порты иностранных государств. Основная цель похода – демонстрация Андреевского флага в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе и дальнейшее развитие военно-морского сотрудничества со странами АТР.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: США будут выкручивать странам НАТО не только "ручки", но и "ножки"

Литва будет выделять на оборону больше, чем требуемые в НАТО 2% от ВВП, заявил министр обороны страны. Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik выразил мнение, что в Литве понимают, что от этих выплат никуда не деться.

Министр обороны Литвы Раймундас Кароблис во время онлайн-конференции, организованной порталом Delfi, заявил, что страна должна выделять на оборону больше, чем 2% от ВВП.

"Граница финансирования зависит от существующего уровня риска, но я думаю, что следующей целью для нас должны стать 2,2% или, может, 2,4% от ВВП", – сказал Кароблис.

В следующем году оборонный бюджет Литвы достигнет 1,8% от ВВП или 723 млн евро. По данным правительства, 2% от ВВП на оборону страна достигнет к 2018 году.

Ранее президент США Дональд Трамп заявил о решительной поддержке НАТО. Однако, выступая на базе американских ВВС Макдилл, Трамп заявил, что не все страны альянса вносят свой полный финансовый вклад. Многие члены НАТО, указал Трамп, "даже не близки" к выполнению взятых на себя обязательств соблюдать нормативы альянса и тратить на оборону не менее 2% своего ВВП. Сейчас лишь 5 из 27 стран альянса исправно пополняют бюджет НАТО – это США, Греция, Великобритания, Эстония и Польша.

По мнению главного советника директора РИСИ, профессора Академии военных наук РФ Владимира Козина, в Литве понимают, что придется платить больше.

"В Литве говорят, что не сегодня-завтра российские дивизии вторгнутся на ее территорию и буквально за часы захватят все и вся. В том, чтобы Литва состояла в альянсе, заинтересована политическая верхушка, а не народ. Литва собирается повышать свои военные расходы в то время, как ее долг растет. Дональд Трамп пытается подстроить под себя военные расходы всех остальных стран-участниц НАТО. Согласована дата очередного саммита альянса в Брюсселе в мае этого года, и там снова будет стоять этот вопрос. Я думаю, что мистер Трамп там выкрутит не только "ручки", но и "ножки" всем остальным странам-членам НАТО, которые не достигли этого двухпроцентного рубежа", – сказал Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik.

По его мнению, США наметили первоочередные задачи, которые намерены решить с помощью НАТО.

"Во-первых, поднять расходы. Затем – усилить военно-морское и иное присутствие не только в районе Балтики и Черного моря, но и в районе Персидского залива, в Кувейте – НАТО там открывает отделение. Это впервые, такого раньше никогда не было. То есть планы на границы НАТО, которые объявлены – а это весь земной шар – по сути, не меняются. Раньше границы были четкими – это территории тех государств, которые являются полноправными членами альянса, сейчас такого нет – границы расширяются", – отметил Владимир Козин.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: США буквально руки своим союзникам по НАТО выкручивают

Американские генералы продолжают делать истерические заявления о том, что США — это самая слабая в военном отношении страна мира, которая проиграет любую войну через час после ее начала.

Командующий Транспортным командованием США (TRANSCOM) генерал Даррен МакДью, выступая в cенате, сообщил, что у него нет достаточного количества кораблей, транспортных самолетов и воздушных заправщиков, чтобы в случае войны перебрасывать большое количество техники и живой силы к театру военных действий.

В 2017 году были проведены первые штабные учения по отработке военного конфликта с технологически развитой страной (Россия, Китай), и стало ясно, что транспортные средства США могут быть уничтожены и выведены из строя, что «станет катастрофой», напомнил генерал МакДью.

Командир TRANSCOM представляет собой, таким образом, американский вариант персонажа советского фильма, сыгранного Андреем Мироновым, который постоянно истерил: «Все пропало, гипс снимают, клиент уезжает!»

В действительности мало кто из членов НАТО, за исключением трех стран Балтии, Великобритании и, как ни странно, Греции, видит для себя какую-то внешнюю угрозу настолько серьезной, чтобы выбрасывать немалые деньги на ненужные им вооружения, считает профессор Российской академии военных наук Владимир Козин.

«США буквально руки своим союзникам по НАТО выкручивают, добиваясь, чтобы те что-то вносили на „общий стол“. Заявления американского генерала — это обычное создание „благоприятного психологического фона“ для этих вымогательств», — сказал Козин «Ридусу».

Генерал Даррен МакДью совершенно не оригинален в своих алармистских заявлениях; точно такие же регулярно делают все генералы (а иногда даже маршалы) по всему миру, включая и Россию.

В октябре 2016 года министр обороны РФ Сергей Шойгу заявил, что в отечественной военной технике выявлен ряд конструктивных и производственных недостатков.

В августе прошлого года покаялся в бессилии и британский Генштаб, объявив, что армия Ее Величества уязвима перед российскими минометами и ракетами.

В прошлом июле с пораженческими заявлениями выступил уже сам главнокомандующий Объединенными вооруженными силами НАТО в Европе генерал Кертис Скапаротти. Он заявил, что впечатлен прогрессом российской армии, а американские танки, самолеты и корабли — это детские игрушки по сравнению с их российскими аналогами.

Автор: Игорь Серебряный, Источник: “Ридус”

В. Козин: США в вопросе Договора РСМД "развязали себе руки"

Москва не приемлет язык ультиматумов, в частности, в вопросе Договора о РСМД, заявили в МИД РФ. Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik отметил, что Россия не выйдет первой из этого договора, но выход из него США не оставит ей выбора.

Москва не приемлет попыток Вашингтона разговаривать языком ультиматумов, оказывать военно-политическое и санкционное давление на Россию, говорится в комментарии департамента информации и печати МИД РФ в связи с ситуацией вокруг договора о РСМД.

Восьмого декабря исполняется тридцать лет со дня подписания Договора между СССР и США о ликвидации ракет средней дальности и меньшей дальности (Договор о РСМД).

"Все три десятилетия Российская Федерация сохраняет твердую приверженность Договору о РСМД и неукоснительно его соблюдает. Мы добиваемся того же от США, достаточно вольно трактующих существо договорных обязательств там, где это препятствует созданию важных для них вооружений, и одновременно продолжающих выдвигать в наш адрес голословные обвинения в нарушении соглашения", – заявили в ведомстве.

В МИД РФ отметили, что "это событие стало важной вехой на пути отказа от стереотипов "холодной войны". "Заключение Договора сыграло существенную роль в укреплении европейской и глобальной безопасности и стабильности. В соответствии с ним ликвидированы два класса ракетно-ядерных вооружений. Был сделан важный шаг в деле ядерного разоружения", – говорится в комментарии.

В МИД РФ выразили сожаление, что "так и не удалось реализовать предложенную Россией в 2007 году инициативу по приданию режиму Договора о РСМД универсального характера". "Тем самым можно было бы избежать нарастания проблем и негативных тенденций, связанных с ракетным распространением", – заявили в ведомстве.

Профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik отметил, что США в последнее время уже неоднократно нарушали Договор РСМД.

"Проблемы соблюдения и несоблюдения этого договора связаны с ухудшением российско-американских отношений и в то же время не связаны. Не связаны, потому что американцы начали активно нарушать этот договор, по сути, с 2001 года, когда они стали использовать ракеты-мишени, то есть учебные ракеты, баллистические, а потом и крылатые ракеты, естественно, без боезарядов для тестирования эффективности действий глобальной системы ПРО. У нас даже есть подозрения, что часть ракет, которые должны быть уничтожены, они (американцы) все-таки утаили. Они могли сделать дырку, показать, что, мол, ракета испорчена, а потом подлатали ее и использовали. И вот с 2001 года началось постоянное нарушение американцами этого договорного акта. Причем был использован весь "джентельменский" ракетный набор", – сказал Владимир Козин.

Он подчеркнул, что российская сторона никогда не нарушала данный договор.

"Ни Советский Союз, ни Россия никогда этот договор не нарушали. И американская сторона не доказала нарушения нигде и никакими фактами. То, что они присваивают нашим ракетам гипотетический натовский номер, это ни о чем не говорит: они не указывают ни место якобы испытаний, не показывают стартовую площадку. Стоит отметить, что конгресс США уже при (президенте Дональде) Трампе принял решение выделить 58 млн (долларов) на проведение работ по созданию крылатой ракеты средней дальности наземного базирования. И в принципе у нынешней американской администрации сейчас руки развязаны. Поэтому надо следить за каждым телодвижением американской стороны и относиться с большим недоверием к тому, что они (США) нам предлагают", – сказал военный эксперт.

Он отметил, что Россия первая не станет выходить из Договора, но с выходом США ей не останется другого выбора.

"Каждый новый президент США вносит какую-то маленькую лепту в ядерную стратегию страны. И американцы уже, в принципе, подготовили "трамповский" вариант. Трамп еще не утвердил его, но уже сейчас просачивается разного рода информация о том, что Договор РСМД будет отражен в этой ядерной доктрине США. И коль скоро у Трампа есть карт-бланш и от конгресса, и от сената, он вполне может выйти из этого договора. Ну что ж, первыми мы выходить из этого договора не будет, но вторыми, конечно, выйдем. Договор двусторонний, и раз одна сторона выходит из него, то вторая вправе считать себя свободной от обязательств", – заключил Владимир Козин.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: США выдвигают России смехотворные и наглые требования

Ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО в программе “Открытый эфир” на канале “Звезда”.

Так начинаются войны. США выходят из последнего мирного договора СНВ-3? Почему серьезные эксперты один за другим прогнозируют наступление ядерного апокалипсиса.

Эфир от 16 сентября 2019г.

Полная версия программы на сайте канала

В. Козин: США готовятся к войне

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе "Открытый эфир" на телеканале "Звезда".

ВСУ заминировали КПП в Донбассе. Порошенко готов на новую провокацию. Развяжет ли он новый виток войны, чтобы сорвать выборы и избежать поражения? И кто пророчит украинскому лидеру тюрьму или даже расправу националистов. Расследование публициста Дмитрия Родионова.

Сенсационное объявление. «Все включено» - в Великобритании продают развлекательные туры в разрушенный войной Донбасс. А для особо богатых садистов ВСУ устраивают сафари на людей. Специальный гость программы - Деян Берич, доброволец из Сербии. Он служил в Донбассе снайпером и готов подтвердить - цели иностранных охотников - безоружные мирные жители юго-востока. Мины для Северного потока?

Военный журналист Юрий Селиванов сравнил «дорожную карту» полетов стратегических бомбардировщиков США над Балтикой и маршрут прокладки российского трубопровода и выяснил, почему американские самолеты «дежурят» у наших границ.

Эфир от 26 марта 2019г.

В. Козин: США и партнеры не сидят сложа руки - мы тоже должны быть бдительными

Россия создала в Арктике группировку войск общего назначения, способную обеспечить безопасность, и продолжит увеличивать боевые возможности в регионе, говорится в "Основах государственной политики России в Арктике на период до 2035 года". Документ своим указом утвердил Владимир Путин.

"Основными задачами в сфере обеспечения военной безопасности Российской Федерации в Арктике являются: … повышение боевых возможностей группировок войск (сил) общего назначения ВС России, других войск, воинских формирований и органов в Арктической зоне и поддержание их боевого потенциала на уровне, гарантирующем решение задач по отражению агрессии против России", – говорится в документе.

Указывается также, что стоит задача улучшать систему комплексного контроля за воздушной, надводной и подводной обстановкой.

Основными вызовами национальной безопасности в документе названы наращивание иностранного военного присутствия в Арктике и дискредитация деятельности России.

В эфире радио Sputnik профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин:

"Несомненно, этот документ представляет большое значение, причем не только для РФ, которая имеет огромный национальный интерес в этом регионе, но и для других государств, которые выходят на его просторы. РФ обращает внимание на то, что российские Вооруженные силы должны иметь там определенный потенциал для защиты интересов страны. Думаю, что в документе учтены все возможные сценарии, в том числе и негативные, развития обстановки. Не секрет, что некоторые страны, в частности, США и их партнеры в регионе, входящие в Североатлантический альянс, не сидят сложа руки. Они занимаются накачиванием там вооружений, проводят масштабные учения военно-воздушных и военно-морских сил. Кроме того, США направляют в воды Арктики свои атомные ракетные подводные лодки и атомные ударные подводные лодки. И в этом плане мы тоже должны быть бдительными", – сказал Владимир Козин.

Источник: Sputnik.

 

В. Козин: США и украинские администрации планировали использование бакоружия с целью уничтожения людей

США вместе с Украиной злостно нарушили Конвенции ООН о запрещении производства и использования бактериологического (биологического) и токсинного оружия, в этом должна разбираться ООН.

Вопрос создания бактериологического (биологического) и токсинного оружия США на территории Украины необходимо немедленно поднять в Совбезе ООН, считает член-корреспондент Академии наук РФ (РАВН) Владимир Козин. Об этом он заявил в беседе с Telegram-каналом «Радиоточка НСН».

Официальный представитель МИД КНР Чжао Лицзянь заявил, что США должны немедленно раскрыть данные о военных биолабораториях, размещенных на Украине, сообщает ТАСС. По его словам, различные исследования на территории Украины велись в 26 американских лабораториях и подобных объектах. Эти сведения подтверждают претензии к США по соблюдению конвенции о биологическом оружии, заявили в МИД РФ.

Военный эксперт напомнил о данных, озвученных 6 марта на брифинге Министерства обороны РФ о фактах ведения секретных биологических экспериментов на территории Украины.

«У 4 тыс. военнослужащих украинских Вооруженных сил были взяты пробы крови, чтобы определить, как биологически опасные заболевания, бактерии, микробы оказывают влияние на славянскую расу в целом. И беспокойство КНР очень понятно. Россия должна своими изысканиями поделиться и объявить во всеуслышание «и граду, и миру», как говорит Папа Римский, о том, что США и Украина являются злостными нарушителями действующей международной Конвенции ООН о запрещении производства и использования бактериологического (биологического) и токсинного оружия. Эти государства нарушили конвенцию. Считаю, что данный вопрос нужно поднять в ООН, Совбезе ООН, потому что он требует особого внимания, его нельзя замалчивать. Это надо сделать самым быстрым образом», - заявил собеседник НСН.

По словам Владимира Козина, секретные опыты США на Украине также связаны с планами Киева разработать собственное ядерное оружие и объясняют решение Москвы перевести в особый режим дежурства силы сдерживания российской армии.

«Тема создания образцов бактериологического (биологического) оружия является доказательством того, что США и украинские администрации планировали использование такого вида оружия с целью агрессии, с целью уничтожения людей – и военных, и гражданских. Эта линия дополняет две других. Первая – создание Украиной ядерного оружия опять же с помощью Соединенных Штатов. Вторая линия – неосновательное обвинение РФ о том, что мы повысили уровень боеготовности своих ядерных сил. 27 февраля президент и Верховный главнокомандующий России Владимир Путин на беседе с министром обороны РФ Сергеем Шойгу и начальником Генерального штаба Валерием Герасимовым, который является также первым замом министра обороны, приказал им лишь усилить режим дежурства средств сдерживания ВС РФ. Путин не говорил о повышении боеготовности российских ядерных сил», - напомнил член-корреспондент РАВН.

Автор: Ольга Болдырева. Источник: “Радиоточка НСН”

В. Козин: США используют китайский фактор, чтобы объяснить собственный выход из Договора

 Американцы постановочно пытаются втянуть Китай в дискуссии по СНВ-III

Несмотря на отсутствие ощутимого прогресса в российско-американских консультациях о судьбе Договора о стратегических наступательных вооружениях (СНВ-III), отказываться от переговоров не стоит. Об этом «Известиям» заявил глава комитета Совета Федерации по международным делам Константин Косачев. По его мнению, диалог нужен для того, чтобы понять намерения Вашингтона в отношении стратегической стабильности. Соглашение рискует прекратить действие уже в феврале 2021 года. Штаты настаивают на подключении к нему Китая и даже «забронировали» для Пекина места в австрийской столице. Однако от участия в дискуссиях КНР отказывалась неоднократно, а потому нынешние контакты предсказуемо прошли в двустороннем формате.

В закрытом режиме

22 июня в Вене состоялись очередные российско-американские консультации по стратегической стабильности. Делегацию РФ на них возглавил замглавы МИДа Сергей Рябков, США — спецпредставитель президента по контролю над вооружениями Маршалл Биллингсли. Переговоры продлились около 10 часов.

Предыдущие контакты прошли около полугода назад, также в столице Австрии. Тогда визави Сергея Рябкова был и.о. заместителя госсекретаря США Кристофер Форд. Единственным прорывным моментом стало решение создать рабочую группу по космосу, однако из-за официального объявления президентом США Дональдом Трампом притязаний на космическое пространство и претензий Москвы по размещению там американского оружия реализация инициативы всё больше вызывает сомнения. Что касается СНВ-III, то вопрос о его продлении остается открытым и по сей день.BRUNA

Венские консультации обычно проходят в закрытом режиме — в прошлый раз о них стало известно лишь после завершения встречи. Нынешние переговоры анонсировали Соединенные Штаты, в Москве их только подтвердили. С итоговыми заявлениями Маршалл Биллингсли намерен выступить 23 июня. Что касается РФ, то, как рассказал «Известиям» российский дипломатический источник, близкий к переговорам, делегация покинула Вену в тот же день, и если и будут какие-то комментарии по итогам, то только по приезде в Москву.

Пока же российский МИД обнародовал лишь темы встречи: помимо СНВ-III, стороны обсудили поддержание стабильности в условиях развала Договора о ракетах средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД, прекратил действие 2 августа 2019 года), а также комплексный диалог по разрешению проблем в сфере международной безопасности.

Ответ на главный вопрос — что ждет СНВ-III — сейчас зависит от Вашингтона. Москва выступает за продление договора на пять лет без предварительных условий с тем, чтобы в этот период можно было разработать уже многосторонний документ.

— Определение своей позиции американцы откладывают на протяжении нескольких лет. Они говорили, что определятся в середине текущего года. Вот она наступила, и, возможно, теперь появится какая-то ясность, — сказал «Известиям» Константин Косачев. — Позиция РФ не меняется. Мы себя ведем в этом смысле корректно, предсказуемо и конструктивно. Консультации нужны, чем бы они ни завершились, — в первую очередь чтобы понять намерения другой стороны. Любой их результат, надеюсь, привнесет какую-то ясность.

Посторонний формат

Между тем сами консультации начались с курьеза. Накануне встречи в Twitter Маршалла Биллингсли появилась фотография из переговорной комнаты с китайскими флагами. «Венские переговоры вот-вот начнутся. Китай не показался. Пекин до сих пор прячется за Великой Стеной Секретности по наращиванию своих ядерных потенциалов и многих других вещей. Несмотря на это, будем дальше работать с Россией», — подписал он изображение.

На фото, позднее опубликованных российской стороной, китайских флагов уже не было. Таким образом, получается, что делегации РФ и США приехали на разные переговоры — в то время как Москва готовилась к двустороннему формату, Вашингтон «забронировал» за столом места и для китайских представителей. Причем сделал это символично — о том, что КНР не будет участвовать в консультациях, Пекин сообщил еще за неделю до их начала.

На запись Маршалла Биллингсли отреагировал глава департамента МИД КНР по вопросам контроля над вооружениями Фу Цун. «Какая странная сцена! Разместить китайские национальные флаги на столе переговоров без согласия Китая! Удачи с продлением СНВ-III. Интересно, до чего вы можете опуститься?» — написал он в ответном твите.

В Москве изобретательность Вашингтона также не оценили.

— Серьезные переговорщики себя так не ведут. Им нужно было устроить некий спектакль, чтобы обозначить желательность присутствия на переговорах китайцев, дескать, их звали, а они от консультаций уклонились, — сказал Константин Косачев. — Но это больше смахивает на ультиматум, и никакая уважающая себя страна на такого рода приглашения положительно реагировать не может.

По его оценке, этот шаг был сделан специально, с учетом того, что Пекин на переговорах присутствовать не будет, чтобы потом извлечь для себя дополнительные очки в плане пропаганды, подытожил сенатор.

Участие Китая в договоре — главное условие, которое выдвигают США, как только речь заходит о продлении СНВ-III. Пекин призывы Вашингтона категорически отвергает, мотивируя это тем, что у США и России ядерные арсеналы гораздо выше: так, по данным Стокгольмского международного института исследований мира (SIPRI) 2019 года, в распоряжении РФ находится 6,5 тыс. боеголовок, Штатов — 6,2 тыс., Китая — 290.

Дворец Niederoesterreich, где прошли переговоры представителей РФ и США по вопросу контроля над вооружениями, Вена, 22 июня 2020 года

— США используют китайский фактор, чтобы объяснить свой собственный выход из Договора о СНВ, — пояснил «Известиям» член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин. — Они просто дождутся окончания его действия, а потом скажут: «Мы предлагали заключить тройственный пакт, а Китай отказался, и поэтому мы в нем больше участвовать не будем».

По оценке эксперта, ситуация с СНВ-III во многом похожа на события вокруг ДРСМД: тогда Вашингтон так же требовал от Москвы надавить на Пекин, чтобы подключить его к соглашению.

Автор: Екатерина Постникова, Источник: “Известия”

В. Козин: США нагнетают военный психоз в странах Балтии

Нагнетая страх перед "российской агрессией" в странах Балтии, США получают экономическую выгоду от поставок военной техники, заявил военный эксперт Владимир Козин

В интервью Sputnik Латвия он отметил, что Соединенные Штаты хотят поставлять в балтийские страны значительно большие объемы вооружения и техники, чем это необходимо.

>>аудиофайл<<

Три года назад США вывели несколько боевых частей из ЕС и теперь возвращают их для сдерживания "российской агрессии". Бригадный генерал США Тимоти Догерти отметил, что "подготовиться к войне дешевле, чем вести ее". Возникает вопрос, почему эту подготовку не ведут члены ЕС, рассуждает Даг Бэндоу в статье для The National Interest.

Автор пишет, что государства Евросоюза должны своими силами укреплять собственную оборону, а не надеяться на помощь США, если "агрессия Путина" кажется им настолько реальной.

Профессор Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин рассказал в интервью Sputnik Литва, что у США заинтересованы в увеличении военных расходов стран Балтии. Эксперт отмечает, что американцам выгодно поставлять в Прибалтику тяжелые вооружения по завышенным ценам.

"Цель, которую ставит перед собой Североатлантический альянс в странах Балтии, — это нагнетание военного психоза среди стран Балтии. Под это дело можно ограничивать средства, не выделять средства на социально-экономические программы, обосновывая, как говорят, опасным развитием ситуации", — сказал Козин.

"Американцы заинтересованы в поставках своего тяжелого вооружения по завышенным ценам в государства Балтии. Причем в таких количествах, которые они просто не могут освоить, поскольку располагают относительно небольшими вооруженными силами по численному составу. А также обеспечить постоянное военное присутствие стран — членов НАТО в государствах Балтии", — отметил эксперт.

Источник: Sputnik Латвия

В. Козин: США не готовы внимать голосу разума и в результате выходят из договора

Военный эксперт назвал главную причину выхода США из ДРМСД

США уведомили Россию, что их решение выйти из ДРМСД окончательно, сообщил замглавы МИД РФ Сергей Рябков. Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik назвал обвинения США в адрес России в якобы несоблюдении договора "информационным прикрытием".

США уведомили Россию, что их решение выйти из Договора о ракетах средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД) окончательно, заявил замглавы МИД Сергей Рябков.

"Недавно американская сторона предприняла еще один разрушительный шаг, на высшем уровне было заявлено о намерении Вашингтона выйти из договора. Практически сразу данное намерение нам подтвердили по двусторонним каналам, при этом было дано четкое пояснение, что объявленный шаг не является приглашением к диалогу, а решение принято по совокупности обстоятельств и является окончательным", – сообщил Рябков на брифинге по российской ракете 9М729 для военных атташе и СМИ.

Дипломат подчеркнул, что требование США уничтожить все ракеты 9М729 абсолютно неприемлемо для России. При этом, как отметил Рябков, Москва готова пойти на беспрецедентную прозрачность по выполнению договора и предложила Вашингтону действовать так же транспарентно. В частности, российская сторона предложила организовать показ и брифинг по ракете 9М729 и ее пусковой остановке.

По словам Рябкова, Россия готова к работе по сохранению ДРСМД – выбор за США.

Он также напомнил о наличии у США ударных беспилотников, которые подпадают под содержащееся в ДРСМД определение крылатой ракеты наземного базирования средней дальности. Кроме того, отметил он, Москва ставила вопрос об использовании Пентагоном так называемых ракет-мишеней, аналогичных по характеристикам наземным баллистическим ракетам средней и меньшей дальности.

Профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik назвал обвинения США в адрес России "информационным прикрытием" их желания уничтожить договор по РСМД.

"О своем намерении покинуть ДРСМД американцы заявили уже достаточно давно. Почему они захотели выйти? Их обвинения в адрес России, что она якобы нарушает договор, совершенно не соответствуют действительности. А действительности соответствует то, что за последние 17 лет они десятки раз нарушали договор, когда при испытании систем ПРО использовали запрещенные ракеты средней и меньшей дальности наземного базирования. Главная причина, по которой американцы хотят выйти (из договора – ред.) состоит в том, что они уже давным-давно приняли решение создавать крылатую ракету наземного базирования средней дальности в ядерном и неядерном снаряжении с перспективой ее размещения на территории ряда европейских стран. А все их заявления и обвинения – не более чем информационное прикрытие", – сказал Владимир Козин.

По его словам, уничтожая договор, США сознательно идут на ослабление глобальной стратегической стабильности.

"Сознают ли американцы последствия своего решения? Конечно, осознают. Тем не менее, их глобальные амбиции, претензии на доминирование в военной сфере, желание обеспечить себе превосходство в ракетно-ядерных и противоракетных вооружениях, очевидно, перевешивают. Поэтому, как видим, они не готовы внимать голосу разума и в результате выходят из этого договора", – заключил Владимир Козин.

В октябре президент США Дональд Трамп объявил, что Вашингтон выйдет из ДРСМД, поскольку Москва не соблюдает свои обязательства. При этом доказательств того, что Россия нарушила договор, американская сторона так и не представила.

Позже госсекретарь Майк Помпео дал Москве два месяца на то, чтобы "вернуться к выполнению" условий соглашения. В частности, США настаивают на том, чтобы Россия отказалась от ракеты 9М729, дальность которой, как утверждают в Вашингтоне, нарушает положения ДРСМД.

В Москве эти обвинения назвали голословными, подчеркнув, что ракета 9М729 не разрабатывалась и не испытывалась на дальность, превышающую установленное ограничение.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: США не собираются создавать безъядерный мир

Об этом свидетельствуют их растущие расходы на ядерные вооружения, наступательная ядерная доктрина, существование новой ядерной триады до 2095 года и другие факторы.

Выступление ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе “Открытый эфир” на телеканале "Звезда".

Эфир от 6 мая 2019г.

 

 

В. Козин: США обманным путем хотят заставить Россию отказаться от «Авангарда»

 

Выступление ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе “Открытый эфир” на телеканале "Звезда".

США обманным путем хотят заставить Россию отказаться от суперкомплексов «Авангард». Чем они их так напугали? И почему американцы  вдруг заговорили о договорах, которые сами не собирались соблюдать? Расследование Владимира Козина.

Прекращение огня - приравнять к госизмене и терроризму. Почему Украина отказывается остановить огонь на Донбассе? Как с приходом Зеленского обстановка на линии разграничения вновь накалилась до предела?

Стреляли по мирным - ради развлечения. В студии - уникальный свидетель преступлений неонацистов на Донбассе.

Эфир от 10 июня.

 

В. Козин: США окончательно забыли о ратификации ДВЗЯИ

Соединенные Штаты Америки продолжают модернизировать свои ядерные вооружения, окончательно забыв о ратификации Договора о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний. Об этом «ПолитРоссии» рассказал военный эксперт Владимир Козин.

В этот день, 10 сентября 1996 года, на 50-й сессии Генеральной Ассамблеи Организации Объединенных Наций был принят Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний. Согласно этому документу, каждое государство-участник обязано не производить любой испытательный взрыв ядерного оружия, а также запретить и предотвращать любой ядерный взрыв в местах, находящихся под его юрисдикцией или контролем.

На сегодняшний момент документ подписан 183 странами, в число которых входят и такие главные ядерные мировые державы, как Россия и США. Однако в силу договор по-прежнему не вступил, поскольку для его ратификации необходимы подписи 44 стран. При этом, как отметил в беседе с «ПолитРоссией» член-корреспондент Академии военных наук Российской Федерации Владимир Козин, речь идет о строго определенном списке государств, в который также входят Россия и Америка. И если Москва ратифицировала договор еще в 2000 году, то Вашингтон до сих пор этого не сделал.

«Этот договор должны ратифицировать конкретные, поименно названные 44 государства – только тогда он вступит в силу. И если хотя бы одна страна из этого списка не сделает этого, он не начнет действовать вообще никогда. Но, конечно, главными в этом "списке нератификантов" являются Соединенные Штаты – только на них ориентируются другие государства, которые не ратифицируют этот договор. Поэтому его судьба неизвестна, в отличие от другого договора – многостороннего Договора о запрещении ядерного оружия, который появился в 2017 году», – объясняет эксперт.

По его словам, этот документ требует ратификации со стороны 50 любых, хоть самых маленьких государств. В случае же с ДВЗЯИ придумали особый списочный состав, и поэтому перспективы на его вступление в силу остаются весьма туманными. Строго говоря, сегодня вообще сложно рассчитывать на ратификацию договора Соединенными Штатами.

«В ядерной стратегии Дональда Трампа, утвержденной в феврале 2018 года записано, что США не будут ратифицировать договор, поскольку он не отвечает американским интересам. Барак Обама обещал ратифицировать его на протяжении всех своих сроков, но даже не поставил вопрос об этом в Сенате. Сам Сенат США в 1999 году пытался провести ратификацию, но провалил ее. И после американцы никогда больше не возвращались к этому вопросу. Трамп же вообще открытым текстом заявил, что ратифицировать этот документ не будет», – рассказывает Владимир Козин.

Естественно, такая позиция позволяет США не выполнять условия договора и проводить всевозможные ядерные испытания. По словам Владимира Козина, на данный момент американцы этим не занимаются, однако в любой момент могут возобновить все работы.

«Сами США сейчас не проводят никаких ядерных испытаний, осуществляется лишь компьютерное моделирование. Но в той же самой ядерной стратегии Трампа записано, что они могут возобновить подземные ядерные испытания на полигоне в штате Невада, и Национальному управлению по ядерной безопасности и Министерству энергетики США предписано провести соответствующие подготовительные мероприятия. То есть, такие испытания могут быть возобновлены, если президент Трамп даст прямое указание их произвести», – отмечает эксперт.

При этом параллельно, как и в случае с другими международными договорами, Штаты обвиняют и Китай, и Россию в том, что они якобы что-то там испытывают. Впрочем, как отмечает Владимир Козин, на российских ядерных полигонах полнейшая тишина. Наша страна ратифицировала этот договор еще в 2000 году, то есть уже через четыре года после его принятия, что довольно быстро.

«Не будем же мы после этого возобновлять испытания. Нам это не нужно – у нас все в порядке с ядерными боезарядами. А американцы же ведут себя деструктивно и вызывающе перед мировым сообществом. Нынешняя республиканская администрация негативно относится к 13 многосторонним и двусторонним договорам в области контроля над вооружениями, в том числе к шести договорным актам, которые имеют прямое или косвенное отношение к ядерному оружию», – рассказывает эксперт.

По его словам, Вашингтон продолжает программу качественной замены стратегической ядерной триады, которая будет находится в ядерных силах США до конца текущего столетия. А это значит, что о ратификации Договора о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний можно забыть раз и навсегда – ведь американцы уже сейчас готовят настоящий «ядерный сюрприз», которые может появиться, в том числе, и близ российских границ.

«Уже приняты на вооружение ядерные боезаряды малой мощности. Скоро в их ядерном арсенале появится новая тактическая ядерная авиабомба В61-12, которая будет способна выполнять стратегические ядерные задачи. За последние два с лишним года их стратегические тяжелые бомбардировщики, сертифицированные под доставку ядерных вооружений, совершили свыше 200 полетов в небе Европы, в которых также принимали участие 19 ядерных и неядерных государств-членов НАТО, то есть 2/3 от их списочного состава. Такие носители ядерного оружия уже неоднократно приближались к рубежам России, что является нарушением Договора СНВ-3. Так что очередную годовщину создания ДВЗЯИ Вашингтон отмечает весьма своеобразно», – резюмирует Владимир Козин.

Автор: Константин Липавский. Источник: «ПолитРоссия»

 

В. Козин: США развязали вторую фазу холодной войны

НАТО должна упрекать в недостаточной прозрачности, прежде всего, себя, заявил постпред РФ при альянсе Александр Грушко в ответ на обвинения России в том, что она занизила численность военных, принимавших участие в учениях "Запад".

Профессор академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин напомнил, что контакты России и НАТО были прерваны именно по инициативе альянса. Тем не менее, сторонам придется решать вопросы американского тактического ядерного оружия и системы ПРО.

"Именно Соединенные Штаты, именно ведущие страны — члены НАТО развязали вторую фазу холодной войны, которая не прекращалась, <…> которая в качественном измерении гораздо опаснее и сильнее, чем первая фаза, которая формально у нас закончилась в 1990-е годы", — заявил Козин в эфире радио Sputnik.

Сылка на аудиофайл

Ранее постпред России при НАТО Александр Грушко отверг обвинения НАТО в нетранспарентности учений "Запад-2017", отметив, что альянс, видимо, учитывал всю военную активность, проходившую в России во время маневров.

Источник: Радио Sputnik-Латвия

В. Козин: США распространяют политику "грубой конкуренции" на ВТС

В сенат США представлен законопроект о запрете поставок F-35 Турции из-за закупки С-400. Свое мнение о причинах такого решения в эфире радио Sputnik высказал эксперт Владимир Козин.

Группа американских сенаторов представила законопроект, запрещающий США передавать истребители F-35 в Турцию до тех пор, пока Анкара не откажется от плана покупки российских систем С-400, сообщает RT.

Издание ссылается на материал The Hill, в котором цитируется сенатор от республиканцев Джеймс Лэнкфорд: "Турция является важным союзником и партнером НАТО в решении ряда приоритетных вопросов национальной безопасности США. Вызывает беспокойство, что Турция стремится к тесному сотрудничеству в области обороны с Россией, авторитарный правитель которой стремится подорвать интересы НАТО и США на каждом шагу".

Согласно законопроекту, администрация президента Дональда Трампа должна подтвердить конгрессу, что Турция не закупит С-400, прежде чем Анкара сможет получить F-35.

Как отмечает издание, этот "законопроект является последней попыткой законодателей и официальных лиц США убедить Турцию не покупать российские С-400".

Ранее в Госдепе заявили, что если Анкара приобретет С-400, то США могут ввести против Турции санкции. Президент Турции Реджеп Тайип Эрдоган в свою очередь назвал сделку по покупке ЗРК С-400 завершенным делом.

Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин считает, что Вашингтон переходит к грубой форме конкуренции в сфере военно-технического сотрудничества.

"Судя по поступающей информации, Анкара пока держится твердо, то есть она искренне хочет купить зенитно-ракетные комплексы С-400, и на нее всякие пугалки типа "тогда не поставим истребитель-бомбардировщик F-35" не действуют. Но заявление американцев говорит о том, что Вашингтон постепенно распространяет политику грубой конкуренции и на такую область как ВТС, в том числе и с союзниками по НАТО", – сказал Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik.

По его мнению, грубое давление на партнеров становится основным методом США в международной торговле.

"Как известно, США не гнушаются проводить такую линию в торгово-экономической и энергетической сферах даже со своими ближайшими союзниками – то требуют закупки именно американской продукции, то грозятся, что наложат санкции, если Европа будет покупать российский газ через "Северный поток-2". Соединенным Штатам сейчас позарез нужны огромные деньги на военные цели: на создание качественно новой стратегической ядерной триады, на дальнейшее внедрение глобальной системы ПРО, а сейчас еще и на создание ударно-космических вооружений и крылатых ракет наземного базирования после выхода из ДРСМД", – заключил Владимир Козин.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: США стоит сто раз подумать, прежде чем проводить учения в Европе

Какой будет реакция РФ и Беларуси на проведение американцами крупных учений в Европе, рассказал Владимир Козин, член научного совета Национального института исследований глобальной безопасности, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России.

США анонсировали крупнейшую за последние 25 лет переброску вооруженных сил в Европу — в апреле-мае следующего года эти войска примут участие в многонациональных учениях Defender 2020. По данным СМИ, военный контингент будет развернут в странах Балтии и Польши. Как на это отреагируют Россия и Беларусь, рассказал эксперт Владимир Козин.

>>аудиофайл<<

В интервью Sputnik Эстония он подчеркнул, что учения такого масштаба, с привлечением военной авиации, кораблей и тяжелой бронетехники, вполне могут рассматриваться в качестве серьезных приготовлений к военным действиям и даже войне.

Беларусь, по мнению эксперта, тоже не останется в стороне. Москва и Минск примут соответствующие меры противодействия — будет повышена боевая готовность, развернуты дополнительные военные силы. "Поэтому американцам надо сто раз подумать, прежде чем устраивать подобного рода провокационные военные учения в непосредственной близости от РФ и РБ", — констатировал Владимир Козин.

Как писал Sputnik Эстония, в последние годы в странах Балтии отмечается беспрецедентное увеличение военной активности США и НАТО. На Западе это объясняют необходимостью сдерживания якобы имеющей место "российской угрозы".

В Москве неоднократно подчеркивали, что Россия никогда не будет нападать на какую-либо страну НАТО. По словам главы МИД РФ Сергея Лаврова, в НАТО прекрасно знают об отсутствии у Москвы планов нападать на кого-либо, но просто пользуются поводом, чтобы разместить больше техники и батальонов близ российских границ.

Источник: Sputnik Эстония 

В. Козин: США уклоняются от создания безъядерного мира

США для сдерживания России создают новую ядерную боеголовку, сообщили СМИ. Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik рассказал об особенностях разрабатываемого оружия.

Американские власти намерены ослабить ограничения на использование ядерного оружия и разработать новую ядерную боеголовку с зарядом малой мощности, сообщает The Guardian со ссылкой на бывшего старшего директора Совета национальной безопасности по контролю над вооружениями и нераспространению Джона Вулфстала.

По его словам, Пентагон разработал новый обзор ядерной политики, в соответствии с которым американские модифицированные баллистические ракеты подводного базирования Trident D5 будут оснащены такими боеголовками. Он подчеркнул, что такие действия США направлены на сдерживание России от применения ядерных боеголовок тактического назначения в случае возникновения конфликта в Восточной Европе.

Новая ядерная политика США, отметил Вулфстал, является более воинственной в сравнении с ядерной политикой, которая была характерна для администрации предыдущего президента Барака Обамы.

Вулфстал констатировал, что Пентагон в новом обзоре расширил перечень условий, при которых США применят ядерный удар по противнику. В частности, к ним относится ответ на неядерную атаку, повлекшую большое количество жертв, или на атаку объектов жизнеобеспечения населения, управления и контроля над ядерным вооружением.

По его словам, обзор будет официально опубликован в конце января.

В эфире радио Sputnik профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин рассказал об особенностях разрабатываемого оружия.

"Это не информационный вброс с целью устрашения, поскольку у США уже создана, и неоднократно была испытана совершенно новая авиабомба свободного падения B61-12, которая имеет несколько видов ядерных боезарядов. Максимальный – 50 килотонн, самый малый – 0,3 килотонны. Для сравнения: бомба, сброшенная на Хиросиму, имела мощность 15 килотонн. Причем, американцы считают, что ядерное оружие такой малой мощности позволит им применять такой вид ядерного оружия в различных региональных конфликтах, чтобы иметь как можно меньшее поле радиоактивного заражения местности. То есть под это еще пытаются подверстать какие-то "гуманитарные", "этические" нормы поведения. Но если заряды малой мощности, которые относятся в основном к тактическому ядерному оружию, загружать на стратегические тяжелые бомбардировщики, они принимают характер стратегического ядерного оружия, поскольку могут доставляться на гораздо большее расстояние",- сказал Владимир Козин.

По его мнению, американская ядерная стратегия в обозримом будущем претерпит заметные изменения.

"К сожалению, новый американский президент в плане ядерной стратегии и обновления ядерного арсенала идет гораздо дальше, чем все его предшественники. Достаточно сказать, что в ближайшее десятилетие Трамп запланировал израсходовать на модернизацию существующего ядерного арсенала 400 миллиардов долларов, а в ближайшие тридцать лет называется астрономическая сумма – 1 триллион 200 миллиардов долларов. Ни одно государство, которое имеет ядерное оружие, не в состоянии выделять столько средств на создание и обновление ядерного арсенала. С 2025-2026 годов в США начнут создавать новую стратегическую ядерную триаду, которая заменит традиционную ядерную триаду, состоящую из межконтинентальных баллистических ракет, баллистических ракет подводных лодок и тяжелых стратегических бомбардировщиков. Таким образом Трамп пытается осуществить свое историческое предвыборное обещание сделать Америку ядерной державой номер один. Этим объясняется и линия США, которые уклоняются от создания безъядерного мира", — отметил Владимир Козин.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: США формируют театр военных действий в восточной Европе

Путин предупредил развязывание ядерной войны

Президент РФ предупредил ядерную войну в Восточной Европе, объясняют политологи URA.RU его встречу с президентом РБ Александром Лукашенко 25 июня. Решение Владимира Путина модернизировать авиацию Белоруссии и поставить ближайшему союзнику ракетные комплексы «Искандер-М» стало сигналом США и НАТО, концентрирующим войска вблизи РФ. Усиливать безопасность Союзного государства российского лидера вынудила блокада Калининграда и расстановка ядерного вооружения США в ЕС, говорят политологи.

Официальные переговоры с белорусским коллегой Путин провел в Санкт-Петербурге. Они были приурочены к 30-летию установления дипломатических отношений. Однако президенты готовились к ним в течение двух дней. Но эта часть визита Лукашенко в Россию осталась за кадром — стороны назвали ее неформальной.

Путин остановился на теме продовольственной безопасности в мире. Он отметил, что на саммите БРИКС многие лидеры говорили о перебоях в поставках продовольствия и удобрений, росте цен. «Россия и Белоруссия являются крупнейшими поставщиками удобрений на мировой рынок. У нас 15 процентов мировой торговли и 25 процентов по некоторым видам удобрений. Недовложение удобрений, конечно, снижает виды на урожай на следующий год. Все это очень печально. Мы договорились предпринять все действия для того, чтобы удовлетворять спросы наших клиентов», — заявил Путин.

И для России, и для Белоруссии наиболее острой является тема как собственной безопасности, так и в целом безопасности в мире, отметил Путин. «В Европе у американцев хранится 200 ядерных тактических боезапасов, в основном это атомные бомбы в шести европейских странах, членах НАТО. Для их возможного применения подготовлено 257 самолетов. Можно ответить зеркально. Но не стоит. Нужно позаботиться о безопасности Союзного государства и других стран ОДКБ», — заметил президент РФ.

Путин пообещал Лукашенко помочь усилить Вооруженные силы Белоруссии. «На вооружении белорусской армии находится большая группировка самолетов СУ-25. Их можно дооборудовать (модернизация должна быть проведена на авиационных заводах в России) и начать подготовку летного состава.

В течение ближайших нескольких месяцев мы передадим Белоруссии ракетно-тактические комплексы «Искандер-М», которые могут применять как баллистические, так и крылатые ракеты, причем как в обычном, так и в ядерном исполнении», — заявил Путин.

Свою обеспокоенность тренировочными полетами самолетов США и НАТО в Европе, которые «готовы нести ядерные боеголовки», Лукашенко не скрывал. «Нас это очень напрягает… Шутить нельзя, мы помним 1941 год, когда нас убаюкивали, что все тихо, никто не нападет, а потом оказались не готовы. Мы должны быть готовы ко всему, даже к применению самого серьезного оружия, чтобы защитить наше отечество от Бреста до Владивостока», — подчеркнул Лукашенко.

Белорусский лидер признался, что его также «напрягает ситуация, которую проводят Польша и Литва». «Это политика конфронтации. Я не понимаю, зачем им это надо, но ясно, что у них за спиной стоят, подталкивают. Политика отвратительная. Поведение агрессивное.

Литва — по их замыслу прекращен транзит в Калининград, изолирован Калининград. Это подобно войне уже. Это недопустимо», — возмутился президент Белоруссии.

Ситуация в восточной Европе действительно тревожная — там усиливается группировка НАТО, подтверждает ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин. «США и НАТО готовят здесь театр военных действий. Стягивается группировка, которая может применять различные виды вооружений против Союзного государства. Ближайшая точка — тактическое ядерное вооружение США в Германии, а также — в Бельгии, Нидерландах, Италии и в Турции. Поскольку США вышли из договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, никто им не помешает разместить новые виды ракет на европейском континенте», — поясняет военный эксперт.

Кроме того, по словам Козина, США планируют ввести операционную базу противоракетной обороны в Польше, где смогут использоваться как оборонительные ракеты, так и наступательные — класса «Томагавк». Силы НАТО будут усиливаться против России и Белоруссии и дальше, уверен политолог. «Путин поэтому и принял такое решение. Мы не можем сидеть и ждать милости от натовских противников.

В Польше, Германии и Литве ведутся разговоры о передаче Калининградской области кому-то из них или даже о ее разделе. Блокада региона связана с тем, что Литва [НАТО] хотят заблокировать поставку военной техники, вооружения и боеприпасов туда. Но с нашей стороны военная группировка [в анклаве] будет укрепляться», — подчеркнул Владимир Козин.

Автор: Екатерина Лазарева. Источник: URA.RU

 

В. Козин: США — это грубо милитаристская страна

Реалии новой «холодной войны» вынуждают наращивать ракетный потенциал

Если США нарушат мораторий по испытанию ядерного оружия, то Россия может создать собственное мультимегатонное оружие и испытать его с тем, чтобы «Штатам неповадно было мявкать, хрюкать и пукать», считает зампрезидента по информационной политике Российской академии ракетных и артиллерийских наук (РАРАН), доктор военных наук Константин Сивков. Также нашей стране, полагает он, следует напомнить американцам о работах по созданию ядерного подводного беспилотника «Посейдон», а также модернизировать «Калибр-М», превратив ее из ракеты средней дальности в крылатую ракету межконтинентального радиуса действия.

«Нужно сделать так, чтобы при любом развитии ситуации Соединенные Штаты знали, что их страна может исчезнуть с лица земли. Москве нужно четко заявить, что бить будем по каньонам, разломам», — заявил доктор военных наук, ранее рекомендовавший России в ответ на выход США из Договора о ракетах средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД) сконцентрироваться на нетрадиционных носителях ядерного оружия и сверхмощных боеголовках, способных вызвать на территории США катастрофические геофизические процессы вроде извержения супервулкана Йеллоустоун.

В целом очень эмоциональную реплику Константина Сивкова, как и появление прочих высказываний подобного рода, полагает профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин, вполне можно понять.

— Любой человек, который не хочет гонки вооружений, не хочет распространения ядерного оружия, не хочет «холодной войны 2.0», рано или поздно устает от постоянного прессинга США в сфере сверхвооружений, устает от их различных угроз другим странам, — объяснил он свою точку зрения. — Это грубо милитаристская страна, настоящая «империя зла», которая с момента провозглашения своей независимости уже 568 раз вмешивалась во внутренние дела других государств, пыталась свергать правительства, а сейчас бряцает ядерным «дамокловым мечом».

— А разве вторая версия «холодной войны» может повториться? Вроде бы сами американцы заявляли об обратном…

—  Несмотря на утверждения об окончании «холодной войны», ее вторая версия давно идет. И инициировали ее все те же США совместно со своими союзниками. Причем этот вариант гораздо страшнее своей первой версии.

— То есть вероятность нарушения Америкой моратория на испытания ядерного оружия реально существует?

— Мы-то этот мораторий соблюдаем давно. И пока нигде и никогда не заявляли, что готовы когда-либо это сделать. А вот американцами такая возможность рассматривается. Конкретно на 63-й странице ядерной стратегии США, одобренной 2 февраля прошлого года, есть положение о том, что США могут возобновить ядерные испытания в Неваде. К слову, соответствующие указания Министерству энергетики США на этот счет уже даны.

Так что Дональд Трамп, как президент и верховный главнокомандующий, вполне может обойти возражения американского Конгресса, миротворческих организаций и рационально мыслящих военно-политических деятелей без особого труда. Просто издаст соответствующий указ или рескрипт, и понеслось, тем более что Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний, так называемый ДЗЯИ, США до сих пор так и не ратифицировали.

— А для чего это нужно Соединенным Штатам?

— Такая необходимость возникла у США по двум моментам. Во-первых, в связи с проверкой надежности и боеготовности маломощных ядерных боезарядов до 5 килотонн. Во-вторых, в связи с началом создании качественно новой стратегической «ядерной триады». И первым шагом на пути к ее реализации станет намеченное на 2025−2026 годы принятие на вооружение американскими вооруженными силами нового тяжелого стратегического ядерного бомбардировщика Б-21 «Рейдер». В 2029 году планируется ввести в строй новую межконтинентальную баллистическую ракету под условным названием «Минитмен-4», так как «тройка» у американцев уже есть. Наконец, в 2031 году США собираются выпустить на боевое патрулирование атомную подлодку класса «Коламбия 826» с баллистическими ракетами на борту на смену имеющимся подлодкам класса «Огайо».

— То есть ничего другого, кроме как потрясать ядерной дубиной, на международной арене США не могут?

— К сожалению, да. Это у них, как говорится, в крови. С момента создания ядерного оружия и его двукратного применения в 1945 году при всех американских президентах остается неизменной формула, которую можно охарактеризовать четырьмя словами — безусловное наступательное ядерное сдерживание.

— Чем грозит мировой общественности такое поведение США и к чему может привести в итоге нарушение ими моратория на ядерные испытания?

— Здравомыслящая мировая общественность должна этот шаг осудить. Потому что как только мораторий будет нарушен, среди ядерных государств может произойти цепная реакция. В частности, испытания своего ядерного оружия может возобновить Северная Корея, которая пока приостановила этот процесс. Это может подорвать договор о нераспространении ядерного оружия и подорвать глобальную систему безопасности.

— Так, может быть, в ответ на это России действительно стоит проводить свои ядерные испытания?

— Я считаю, что в вопросе ядерных испытаний России с места в карьер бросаться не стоит. Надо посмотреть за развитием событий и ходом реализации ядерной стратегии США. А пока стоит более эффективней обращаться к мировому сообществу, доказывая на конкретных цифрах, кто именно все-таки угрожает миру. Надо говорить европейцам — что вы, господа, все время оглядываетесь на США, не пора ли России и Евросоюзу заключать какие-то отдельные договоренности в области контроля за ядерным оружием.

— А что должно произойти в мире, чтобы США, как говорится, больше «не вякали»? Возможно ли такое в принципе?

—  Такое возможно в двух случаях. Во-первых, если американские избиратели будут избирать профессионально подготовленных и сдержанных, рассудительных политических деятелей, а не земные воплощения бога войны Марса. Во-вторых, если Россия создаст гиперзвуковые высокоточные системы вооружений в таком количестве, чтобы они нивелировали все потуги американцев в наращивании ракетно-ядерных, космических и прочих вооружений.

— У России есть такой потенциал?

— Конечно. Правда, это произойдет не завтра и не послезавтра, но серьезные наработки в этом вопросе у нас есть. Наш президент в двух своих последних Посланиях Федеральному собранию уже говорил о шести новых видах подобных вооружений. Кроме того, в рамках Пражского договора 2010 года, известного как СНВ-3, у нас имеются стратегические наступательные вооружения в количестве 1550 боезарядов. Также имеются гиперзвуковые системы воздушного и морского базирования, плюс подводный дрон «Посейдон» с огромной мощности ядерным боезарядом на борту.

Кстати, если без мультимегатонной бомбы Россия вполне может обойтись, то предложение Константина Сивкова о модернизации ракеты «Калибр-М» и превращении ее в крылатую межконтинентальную вполне реалистично и справедливо. Но хочу подчеркнуть, что это должно быть только ответным ходом на окончательный выход США из ДРСМД в августе 2019 года. Ведь американцы до сих пор так и не смогли никоим образом доказать факты нарушения Россией этого договора, тогда как сами нарушили его за последние 20 лет по количеству испытаний 108 раз, а по количеству задействованных в них запрещенных ракет-мишеней 117 раз.

— А откуда такая информация?

— Она содержится в абсолютно официальных американских документах. Во-первых, в пресс-релизах Управления противоракетной обороны Минобороны США, как раз отвечающего за разработку, создание и развертывание ракет-перехватчиков. Во-вторых, в справочных материалах, появившихся под шапкой Исследовательской службы Конгресса США в декабре прошлого года и в феврале текущего. Почему уж США пошли на такую открытость, неизвестно, может быть, это просто их недочет. Но, как бы там ни было, появление подобных документов на сайтах Пентагона и Конгресса США является суперважным доказательством нарушением Америкой ДРСМД.

Автор: Андрей Захарченко, Источник: “Свободная пресса”

В. Козин: Следом за ДРСМД американцы откажутся и от СНВ-III

Выступление ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе “В центре внимания” на радио Sputnik.

2 августа договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности официально прекратил свое существование по инициативе США.

Программа "В центре внимания" на радио Sputnik.

Эфир от 2 августа 2019г.

В. Козин: Слова Макрона – болтовня, это называется камуфляжем зловещих планов.

Власти Украины заподозрили Макрона в изменении позиции касательно спецоперации, испугавшись его слов о недопустимости унижения России на международной арене.
 
Своё мнение по этому вопросу телеканалу Царьград TV высказал член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин:
 
"Слова Макрона – болтовня. Потому что Франция поставляет тяжёлые виды вооружений вэсэушникам, Вооружённым силам Украины. Это называется камуфляжем зловещих планов. Зловещие планы проявляются в том, что Франция направляет оружие, которое используется против мирного населения Донбасса. Точно так же, как американские М-777, и то же самое, как британские вооружения.
 
Поэтому рыло у официального Парижа давно в пушку. И всякие такие выверты сделаны для того, чтобы припрятать истинные цели.
 
Поэтому давление на Францию, США, Великобританию, другие страны – члены НАТО, а они практически все поставляют тяжёлые виды вооружений, должно быть с российской стороны резко усилено.
 
Мы обязаны информационно раскрывать их настоящие агрессивные планы, а не верить разного рода сказкам, фантазиям, которые призваны усыпить бдительность России, ДНР и ЛНР".

Источник: Царьград TV

 

В. Козин: Слова генсека НАТО о "борьбе на море" имеют "подкладку"

Генсек НАТО Йенс Столтенберг заявил о "высочайшем уровне" активности подлодок РФ, отметив, что силы альянса утратили навыки борьбы на море. Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik рассказал о подоплеке подобного заявления.

Генсек НАТО Йенс Столтенберг заявил о "высочайшем уровне" активности российских подлодок и признал, что флот Североатлантического альянса потерял необходимые навыки борьбы в море.

"Россия вложила значительные средства в свой флот, особенно в подводные лодки. Деятельность российских субмарин сейчас на высочайшем уровне со времен холодной войны", – сказал Столтенберг в интервью изданию Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. В беседе также принимали участие журналисты Financial Times и Washington Post.

В то же время генсек альянса указал на снизившуюся готовность НАТО к вызовам в море.

"После окончания холодной войны НАТО сократила свои возможности в море, особенно возможности борьбы с подводными лодками. Мы меньше тренировались и потеряли навыки", – пояснил Столтенберг.

Он считает, что альянс должен быть способен перевозить войска и снаряжение через Атлантику, и в этой связи упомянул о планах создать новые подразделения.

Ранее министры обороны стран – членов НАТО согласовали план адаптации командной структуры, предполагающий формирование двух командований: по Атлантике для защиты транспортных путей между Северной Америкой и Европой и по логистике для обеспечения транспортировки войск и оборудования внутри Европы.

Профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik высказал мнение о том, какие цели мог преследовать генсек альянса своим заявлением.

"Это связано с двумя вещами. Во-первых, еще в 2015 году руководство НАТО объявило о необходимости развертывания противолодочной борьбы с Россией и ведения одновременно противоминного противодействия России, как они объявили: в морях и океанах. А вторая причина заключается в том, что это заявление Йенса Столтенберга полностью вписывается в недавно подписанную (президентом США Дональдом) Трампом обновленную стратегию национальной безопасности США. Где, в частности, ставится задача не просто наращивания вооруженных сил НАТО в мире, но и выделено такое направление, как Восточная Европа, то есть непосредственно у границ РФ", – сказал Владимир Козин.

По его мнению, заявление Йенса Столтенберга весьма "симтоматично".

"Известно, что натовцы уделяют большое внимание не только противоракетной обороне и ракетно-ядерным вооружениям, но и своим военно-морским силам, поскольку они будут использоваться для вмешательства во внутренние дела других государств и силового воздействия в различных региональных конфликтах, которые они сами создают в разных точках земного шара. Поэтому заявление Столтенберга носит такой комплементарный характер, но имеет и информационную "подкладку" под определенные указания: надо в рамках Североатлантического союза наращивать противолодочные возможности, перекрывать те проливные зоны, откуда выходят российские подводные лодки – это, прежде всего, Черное море, Средиземное море и Балтийское море. Это симптоматично и говорит о том, что НАТО и его руководство не собираются сокращать свою военно-морскую активность", – отметил военный эксперт.

Он считает, что действия НАТО требуют от России адекватного ответа, который заключается в развитии своих ВМС.

"НАТО готово зажать в тиски Россию не только с точки зрения наземных, военно-воздушных сил, но и военно-морских – это вполне очевидно следует из заявления Йенса Столтенберга. И российским военным нужно реагировать очень просто: держать порох сухим, развивать свой Военно-морской флот различного назначения, в том числе и ударные подлодки, а также надводные морские силы, которые имеют противоракетные системы вооружений, развивать стратегический подводный флот, атомные ударные подводные лодки. То есть весь набор Военно-морских сил, которые, как известно, не любят однобокости, а должны развиваться комплексно и своевременно", – заключил Владимир Козин.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: Слова спецпредставителя США об инциденте с Ил-20 – намек на рецидив

Госдеп заявил об опасности инцидента с крушением Ил-20 в Сирии. В эфире радио Sputnik ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин прокомментировал это заявление.

Инцидент с Ил-20 является опасным примером эскалации в Сирии, которую нужно остановить, заявил спецпредставитель США по сирийскому диалогу Джеймс Джеффри.

"Это пример того, чего мы пытаемся избежать в более широком масштабе – десять дней назад предположительно израильские силы атаковали иранские военные цели, в результате сирийские ВС попытались атаковать предполагаемые израильские силы и в конце концов попали по российским ВС. Это сценарий эскалации, который нам необходимо срочно остановить", – сказал Джеффри, комментируя инцидент с Ил-20 на брифинге в Нью-Йорке на полях Генассамблеи ООН.

"Сейчас в Сирии пять государственных вооруженных сил: американские, русские, турецкие, иранские и израильские – последние, во всяком случае, присутствуют в воздухе. Они по всей Сирии наталкиваются друг на друга", – добавил Джеффри, выразив мнение, что конфликт в Арабской республике необходимо "заморозить любым возможным способом".

В эфире радио Sputnik профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин прокомментировал заявление спецпредставителя США.

"Такое заявление американской стороны вызывает большое удивление. Трагедия, которая случилась с Ил-20, связана с тем, что некоторые страны ведут себя неадекватно в воздушном пространстве. И те предостережения, которые прозвучали в словах американского представителя, можно адресовать как американской стороне, так и израильской, поскольку именно они создают разные опасные ситуации, причем, создают их инициативно, безо всяких видимых причин. Как известно, между РФ и США, РФ и Израилем существуют соглашения о предотвращении инцидентов в небе над Сирией. Чтобы трагедий больше не было, нужно скрупулезно соблюдать эти соглашения. А в словах американского представителя я увидел какой-то намек на "рецидив" именно с их стороны – что они могут создавать подобного рода ситуации. Но это не должно повториться", – сказал Владимир Козин.

В прошлый понедельник, 17 сентября, ракетой сирийского комплекса С-200 был сбит российский Ил-20, который возвращался на базу Хмеймим. В это же время четыре израильских F-16 атаковали сирийские объекты в Латакии.

По данным Минобороны, прикрываясь российским самолетом, израильские летчики подставили его под удар сирийской ПВО. Погибли пятнадцать российских военных. При этом Израиль не предупредил российское командование о планируемой операции. Министр обороны Сергей Шойгу заявил, что вина за сбитый Ил-20 и гибель экипажа полностью лежит на израильской стороне. Москва в рамках мер по повышению безопасности российских военнослужащих в течение двух недель передаст Дамаску зенитно-ракетные комплексы С-300.

В свою очередь, в Израиле отвергли обвинения в гибели Ил-20 и возложили ответственность на Сирию и Иран.  

Источник: РИА Новости  

В. Козин: Создание «супер-пупер-ракет» невозможно с математической точки зрения

Конгресс США и коронавирус не дадут Трампу догнать российский «гиперзвук»

Гиперзвуковые ракеты пролетают километры за секунды, а обнаружить или уничтожить их во время полета очень сложно. Президент Дональд Трамп считает, что США могут догнать Россию и Китай в гонке сверхбыстрого вооружения.

«Наша конечная цель — доминирование на будущих полях сражений», — заявил директор Пентагона по оборонным исследованиям и инженерным разработкам Марк Льюис.

Международная газета The Christian Science Monitor пишет, что в 2021 году Пентагон хочет получить больше трех миллиардов долларов на разработку гиперзвукового оружия. Ранее Трамп назвал это «супер-пупер-ракетами».

«Мы сейчас создаем невероятную военную технику невиданного ранее уровня. У нас нет выбора, нам приходится это делать, учитывая тех противников, которые у нас имеются», — подчеркнул американский лидер.

Под «противниками» США подразумевают Россию и Китай, пытаясь наверстать упущенное время в разработке гиперзвукового оружия. Трамп не уточнил, какие ракетные комплексы конкретно он имеет в виду, но заявил, что американский «проект» будет быстрее всех существующих ныне ракет в 17 раз.

Ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин считает, что создание такого вооружения невозможно с математической точки зрения. Сравнивая с российским комплексом «Авангард», ракеты которого летят со скоростью более 30 000 километров в час, гиперзвуковые ракеты Пентагона должны будут развивать скорость не менее 510 000 тысяч километров в час.

«Такая цифра представляется мне маловероятной. На сегодняшний день очень трудно сказать, удастся ли США преодолеть те скоростные характеристики, которые задала Россия. <…> Пентагон бросает огромные средства, чтобы угнаться за РФ», — отметил военный эксперт.

Китай также стремится участвовать в гиперзвуковой гонке вооружений. Испытания ракеты DF-17 показали, что она имеет дальность действия около двух с половиной тысяч километров. Скорость ракеты достигает 5–10 чисел Маха (около 12 000 километров в час — прим. ред.).

Автор: Роман Самойлов, Источник: ИА «Политика сегодня»

 

 

 

 

Материал опубликован  в рамках спецпроекта ЦВПИ МГИМО 

В. Козин: Стоит прекратить все контакты, пока США не перестанут вторгаться в дела РФ

Профессор Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин считает, что Москве стоит прекратить все контакты с Вашингтоном до тех пор, пока США не перестанут вторгаться в дела РФ. Так эксперт прокомментировал Лайфу слова Сергея Лаврова о том, что МИД ждёт ответа от американских коллег по ситуации с вмешательством в российские выборы.

"[США] даже не гнушаются искать какие-то предлоги и оправдания для этого, а просто вмешиваются в наши внутренние дела. Я очень рад, что председатель КНР отказался от встречи с Байденом, потому что американская сторона занимает очень агрессивную антикитайскую позицию", — отметил Владимир Козин.

Профессор считает, что РФ нужно действовать таким же образом, так как Вашингтон давно занимает "откровенную, неприкрытую антироссийскую позицию" и простые заявления на США не действуют.

"Простые заявления, что это плохо с американской стороны, не действуют. Ограничить все контакты, прекратить всякие связи и продумать ряд дополнительных мер, чтобы они прочувствовали это. Если они не прочувствуют, они будут постоянно вмешиваться в наши дела, ставить огромные препятствия газопроводу "Северный поток – 2" и делать другие гадости", — заключил эксперт.

Ранее Сергей Лавров назвал серьёзными данные о вмешательстве США в российские выборы. По словам главы МИД, Москва ждёт ответа от американских коллег, "почему такое происходит". Американский посол Джон Салливан обещал изучить эту информацию.

Источник: LIFE

В. Козин: Столтенберг успокаивает нашу бдительность, чтобы мы пошли на переговоры

Военный аналитик усомнился в словах генсека НАТО о переходе украинского конфликта в новую фазу

Слова генерального секретаря НАТО Йенса Столтеберга о переходе украинского конфликта в новую фазу «логистического» противостояния на истощение не соответствуют действительности. Так ситуацию на поле боя в разговоре с «Лентой.ру» оценил ведущий эксперт центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин.

«Не верю. Он успокаивает нашу бдительность, чтобы мы на переговоры пошли. Я сомневаюсь в том, что он говорит правду. Они хотят ввести нас в заблуждение, притупить бдительность, пойти на переговоры на киевских условиях. 30 государств-членов НАТО поставляют оружие Киеву и еще 20 внеблоковых. Как думаете, не соберут? Конечно, соберут. Считаю, что это является ложным информационным вбросом», — сказал он.

Глава Североатлантического альянса сообщил, что объединение к настоящему моменту исчерпало запасы артиллерийских снарядов для поставок Украине. По его словам, члены НАТО считают необходимым нарастить производство на фоне перехода конфликта в фазу «войны на истощение».

Столтенберг отметил, что главная проблема заключается в том, что расход снарядов в настоящий момент опережает производство. Он добавил, что союзники пытаются делать основной упор на производство, поскольку сейчас идет «противостояние логистик, и важно снабжать украинцев каждый день, чтобы они продолжали достигать результатов на поле боя».

Источник: «Лента.ру»

 

В. Козин: Судьба ДРСМД решена окончательно и бесповоротно

Не пора ли ЕС без США договариваться с РФ о контроле за вооружениями?

В разговоре с корреспондентом немецкого издания Welt am Sonntag генеральный секретарь НАТО Йенс Столтенберг заявил: договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД) ещё можно спасти, если Россия выполнит поставленное Западом условие. И добровольно уничтожит свои новейшие ракеты SSC-8 (9М729). Однако если российская сторона на это не пойдет, уточнил генсек, то в ответ Североатлантический альянс предпримет «соразмерный и скоординированный» шаг, который — внимание! — не будет связан с развертыванием в Европе новых ядерных ракет.

Судьба Договора о ракетах средней и меньшей дальности решена окончательно и бесповоротно, - подчеркнул член-корреспондент Академии военных наук, ведущий эксперт центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин, — 2 августа 2019 года этот документ, несмотря на все заявления, официально прекратит свое юридическое и фактическое существование.

— Американцы говорили, — напомнил эксперт, — что останутся в рамках договора, если мы уничтожим свою ракету 9М729. Но зачем приплетать сюда вооружение, которое никак не попадает под ДРСМД, если сами американцы нарушили его за последние 20 лет по количеству испытаний 108 раз? А по количеству задействованных в них запрещенных ракет-мишеней — 117 раз? Хоть и без боезарядов использовали, но в реальных условиях — с запуском, с перехватом, все, как полагается.

Причем, эта информация содержится в абсолютно официальных американских документах: в пресс-релизах Управления противоракетной обороны Минобороны США и в справочных материалах, появившихся под шапкой Исследовательской службы Конгресса США в декабре прошлого года и в феврале текущего.

Просто США во что бы то ни стало, нужно выйти из ДРСМД для создания собственной мобильно-грунтовой ракеты средней дальности наземного базирования. С целью последующего ее размещения на территории своих натовских союзников. Тем более, что средства на эти цели Конгрессом США уже выделены, а старые ракетные технологии еще живы. Так что непосредственная разработка может начаться очень быстро.

— А чем, в свою очередь, может ответить на это Россия?

— Естественно, у России не остается никаких иных вариантов кроме симметричного ответа. Мы свободно сможем создавать ракеты средней и меньшей дальности наземного базирования с ядерным и неядерным снаряжением, а потом — и повышать их дальность.

Можем продолжать программу создания высокоточных систем гиперзвукового оружия, не ограниченного никакими международными контролирующими актами. Само собой, под прицел российских ударных сил будут поставлены все те места, где появятся новые американские ракеты. Причем — абсолютно не важно, будут они официально ядерными или неядерными?

А вот срываться с места в карьер в вопросе ядерных испытаний Владимир Козин все же не советует. Вместо этого эксперт рекомендует пока понаблюдать за развитием событий и ходом реализации ядерной стратегии США. Параллельно повышая эффективность обращений к мировому сообществу, доказывая с конкретными цифрами в руках, кто именно все-таки угрожает миру.

«Надо говорить европейцам: что вы, господа, все время оглядываетесь на США? Не пора ли России и Евросоюзу заключать какие-то отдельные договоренности в области контроля за ядерным оружием?» — резюмировал эксперт.

Автор: Андрей Захарченко, Источник: “Свободная пресса”

 

В. Козин: Судьба ДРСМД решена окончательно и бесповоротно

Не пора ли ЕС без США договариваться с РФ о контроле за вооружениями?

В разговоре с корреспондентом немецкого издания Welt am Sonntag генеральный секретарь НАТО Йенс Столтенберг заявил: договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД) ещё можно спасти, если Россия выполнит поставленное Западом условие. И добровольно уничтожит свои новейшие ракеты SSC-8 (9М729). Однако если российская сторона на это не пойдет, уточнил генсек, то в ответ Североатлантический альянс предпримет «соразмерный и скоординированный» шаг, который — внимание! — не будет связан с развертыванием в Европе новых ядерных ракет.

Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук, ведущий эксперт центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин подчеркнул, что судьба  Договора о ракетах средней и меньшей дальности решена окончательно и бесповоротно — 2 августа 2019 года этот документ, несмотря на все заявления, официально прекратит свое юридическое и фактическое существование.

— Американцы говорили, — напомнил эксперт, — что останутся в рамках договора, если мы уничтожим свою ракету 9М729. Но зачем приплетать сюда вооружение, которое никак не попадает под ДРСМД, если сами американцы нарушили его за последние 20 лет по количеству испытаний 108 раз? А по количеству задействованных в них запрещенных ракет-мишеней — 117 раз? Хоть и без боезарядов использовали, но в реальных условиях — с запуском, с перехватом, все, как полагается.

Причем, эта информация содержится в абсолютно официальных американских документах: в пресс-релизах Управления противоракетной обороны Минобороны США и в справочных материалах, появившихся под шапкой Исследовательской службы Конгресса США в декабре прошлого года и в феврале текущего.

Просто США во что бы то ни стало, нужно выйти из ДРСМД для создания собственной мобильно-грунтовой ракеты средней дальности наземного базирования. С целью последующего ее размещения на территории своих натовских союзников. Тем более, что средства на эти цели Конгрессом США уже выделены, а старые ракетные технологии еще живы. Так что непосредственная разработка может начаться очень быстро.

— А чем, в свою очередь, может ответить на это Россия?

— Естественно, у России не остается никаких иных вариантов кроме симметричного ответа. Мы свободно сможем создавать ракеты средней и меньшей дальности наземного базирования с ядерным и неядерным снаряжением, а потом — и повышать их дальность.

Можем продолжать программу создания высокоточных систем гиперзвукового оружия, не ограниченного никакими международными контролирующими актами. Само собой, под прицел российских ударных сил будут поставлены все те места, где появятся новые американские ракеты. Причем — абсолютно не важно, будут они официально ядерными или неядерными?

А вот срываться с места в карьер в вопросе ядерных испытаний Владимир Козин все же не советует. Вместо этого эксперт рекомендует пока понаблюдать за развитием событий и ходом реализации ядерной стратегии США. Параллельно повышая эффективность обращений к мировому сообществу, доказывая с конкретными цифрами в руках, кто именно все-таки угрожает миру.

«Надо говорить европейцам: что вы, господа, все время оглядываетесь на США? Не пора ли России и Евросоюзу заключать какие-то отдельные договоренности в области контроля за ядерным оружием?» — резюмировал эксперт.

Автор: Андрей Захарченко, Источник: “Свободная пресса”

В. Козин: Там больше 400 боезарядов

США тайно размещают ядерное оружие в Латвии, Литве и Польше

Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин заявил НСН, что в этих странах задействованы самолеты США, способные нести ядерные боезаряды.

США тайно размещают ядерное тактическое оружие в Литве, Латвии, Эстонии и Польше в рамках операции НАТО по воздушному патрулированию, заявил член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин в беседе с НСН.

США разместили 150 ядерных снарядов на авиабазах в Европе без каких-либо официальных заявлений, сообщила координатор политики и исследований Международной кампании за ликвидацию ядерного оружия (ICAN) Алисия Сандерс-Закре.

«Никакое это не тайное размещение, размещается оружие в Бельгии, Нидерландах, Германии, Италии, а также в азиатской части Турции. Это американское тактическое ядерное оружие. Не 150 и даже не 200, больше 400 ядерных боезарядов размещено. Помимо этих стран с марта 2004 года размещено ядерное тактическое оружие США действительно тайно в Литве, Латвии, Эстонии и в Польше. Почему тайно? Потому что там действует операция НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», в которой принимают участие самолеты двойного назначения, способные нести ядерные боезаряды. Для этого, что логично, развернута инфраструктура НАТО. Это самолеты F16, все пять вариантов, в том числе те, которые собираются поставить на Украину», - рассказал он.

Ранее президент РФ Владимир Путин заявил, что работа по размещению российского ядерного оружия в Белоруссии идет по плану, передает Telegram-канал «Радиоточка НСН».

Автор: Ева Никитина. Источник: НСН

 

 

В. Козин: Тень нового Карибского кризиса

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе “Открытый эфир” на телеканале “Звезда”.

Секретный американский план №80-044. Сколько городов России планирует уничтожить Пентагон один ударом? И на какой особый случай основные ядерные арсеналы США держат на подводных лодках? Когда «балтийский кризис» превратится во второй карибский - тайную доктрину американских военных по своим источникам получил и проанализировал военный обозреватель Владимир Козин.

Эфир от 22 января 2020г.

В. Козин: Трагедия Хиросимы и Нагасаки не должна больше повториться

6 и 9 августа отмечаются две трагические даты – использование Соединенными Штатами атомных бомб против мирных японских городов Хиросимы и Нагасаки в 1945 году.

Такие напоминания не утратили и не утратят своего весьма печального и одновременно предупредительного смысла. Это было первое неспровоцированное применение ядерного оружия против мирного населения Соединенными Штатами, что привело к многочисленным человеческим жертвам и огромным разрушениям инфраструктуры этих двух городов, которые вообще не имени никакого военного значения в войне против Японии.

Не дай бог, чтобы такое использование оружия массового уничтожения еще когда-либо повторилось где-нибудь на земном шаре.

К сожалению, современная ядерная доктрина США предусматривает применение ядерного оружия в 14 случаях, многие из которых могут трактоваться весьма свободно, например, положение о возможности использования американского ядерного оружия в случае достижения «технологических прорывов» в других странах.

Такая стратегия должна быть пересмотрена. Равно как и должно быть отменено право президента США отдавать единоличный, персональный приказ о его применении. Трагедия Хиросимы и Нагасаки никогда не должна больше повториться.

 

 

В. Козин: Трамп из Альянса не выйдет

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО оценил сообщение о намерении Трампа вывести США из НАТО

Бывшие сотрудники администрации США опасаются, что Дональд Трамп в случае переизбрания на второй срок может "положить конец" членству страны в НАТО, пишет The New York Times.

Трамп с 2018 года думает о выходе США из НАТО, однако в преддверии ноябрьских выборов появились новые свидетельства, подтверждающие его намерения, утверждает газета, публикацию которой цитирует РБК.

Американское издание напоминает, что летом бывший помощник президента по национальной безопасности Джон Болтон выпустил книгу, в которой утверждает, что Трамп неоднократно заявлял о желании выйти из альянса. Также в августе в интервью СМИ Болтон предположил, что президент может объявить о выходе США из НАТО еще до выборов.

Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik прокомментировал публикацию американской газеты.

"Я считаю, что это непроверенная информация, хотя ранее в высказываниях Дональда Трампа уже после его вступления в должность президента США звучало недовольство Организацией Североатлантического договора по разным поводам. Но я не думаю, что Трамп выйдет из этой организации: Соединенные Штаты играют в ней главнейшую скрипичную партию и наоборот, призывают к единству и к расширению оперативного взаимодействия вооруженных сил в рамках альянса. Более того, Трампу удалось продавить свою идею, чтобы все государства альянса вышли на уровень военных расходов в 2% относительно ВВП, и уже девять государств вышли на такой уровень. Трамп ставит задачу для всех государств НАТО выйти на этот уровень к 2024 году", ‒ сказал Владимир Козин.

Военный эксперт отметил, что Трамп неоднократно высказывал мысль о необходимости увеличить в дальнейшем уровень военных расходов до 4% от ВВП.

Владимир Козин также напомнил, что в последние годы ВВС США интенсифицировали полеты в воздушном пространстве стран НАТО вблизи российских границ, а также в международном воздушном пространстве Европы. В этих условиях трудно предположить о наличии у США планов покинуть альянс, уверен он.

Источник: радио Sputnik

В. Козин: Трамп понижает порог применения ядерного оружия

Выступление ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе “Открытый эфир” на телеканале "Звезда".

Эфир от 21 июня 2019г.

В. Козин: Трамп сделал ставку на модернизацию СЯО

Выступление эксперта Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО, профессора академии военных наук РФ В. Козина в программе "Время покажет" на Первом канале.

Тема выпуска – обострение отношений между США и Северной Кореей. Северокорейские власти заявили, что вооруженные силы КНДР готовы нанести ракетный удар по базе ВВС США на острове Гуам в Тихом океане, как только приказ об этом отдаст глава республики Ким Чен Ын. Эксперты в студии программы обсуждают эту новость и оценивают реальность угрозы ядерной войны.

Эфир от 9 августа 2017 г.

В. Козин: У Лукашенко есть основания видеть в НАТО угрозу

Президент Беларуси Александр Лукашенко заявил о готовности адекватно реагировать на возможные угрозы со стороны стран НАТО вопреки заверениям госсекретаря США Майка Помпео в их отсутствии. "Если только там дернутся со стороны Польши, Литвы... - мы будем отвечать", - подчеркнул белорусский лидер.

На западном направлении в отношении РФ и Беларуси неспокойно, поэтому Лукашенко абсолютно прав, заявил Sputnik Латвия член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин.

Он констатировал, что США и НАТО продолжают наращивать в регионе военное присутствие комбинированного характера.

"Привлекаются средства, способные нести ядерное оружие, - такие как истребители-бомбардировщики двойного назначения. Тяжелая стратегическая авиация США, которая сертифицирована под доставку ядерного оружия, отрабатывает условные ядерные удары по Калининградской области. Участвуют тяжелые виды вооружения, используются противоракетные средства, широко задействованы командно-штабные структуры стран НАТО", - указал Козин.

По словам эксперта, президент Беларуси сказал правильно - нужно сохранять бдительность и держать порох сухим.

"Необходимо отслеживать всяческие проявления милитаризации Балтийского региона, а также оказывать противодействие и проводить мероприятия, направленные на минимизацию потенциальной военной угрозы со стороны НАТО", - заключил Козин.

Лукашенко еще в августе заявлял, что НАТО "лязгает гусеницами" у ворот Беларуси, и выражал обеспокоенность увеличением присутствия альянса в Литве и Польше. В НАТО тогда заверили, что военнослужащие находятся близ белорусской границы в целях "предотвращения конфликтов и сохранения мира". Лукашенко распорядился усилить меры обороны в регионе.

НАТО под предлогом растущей агрессии значительно усилила присутствие в Балтийском регионе. Министр обороны РФ Сергей Шойгу отмечал, что Западное стратегическое направление несет наибольшую угрозу безопасности России и Москва вынуждена принимать адекватные ответные меры.

Источник: Sputnik Латвия

В. Козин: У Трампа – серьезная "головная боль"

ВМС США, по сообщениям СМИ, могут вернуть в строй часть списанных ранее в резерв фрегатов. Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik отметил, что американские ВМС сталкиваются сейчас с многочисленными сложностями.

Командование ВМС США, как сообщают СМИ, рассматривает возможность возвращения в строй выведенных в резерв ракетных фрегатов класса "Оливер Хазард Перри". Эта мера, полагают в ВМС, может помочь увеличить численность состава флота до обозначенного президентом США Дональдом Трампом количества в 355 боевых кораблей.

"Мы внимательно смотрим на фрегаты класса "Оливер Хазард Перри". Есть семь или восемь из них, которые мы могли бы рассмотреть, – заявил начальник службы военно-морских операций ВМС США адмирал Джон Ричардсон. – Но это старые корабли… многое изменилось с тех пор, как мы в последний раз модернизировали их".

Как сообщается, еще один возможный способ увеличения численности состава флота, который рассматривают в командовании ВМС – продление срока службы ракетных эсминцев класса "Арли Берк".

По мнению профессора Академии военных наук РФ, военного эксперта Владимира Козина, само по себе возвращение в строй старых кораблей не сможет решить стоящие перед ВМС США задачи, которые гораздо масштабнее.

"Фрегаты не смогут "сделать погоду", тем более такие старенькие, которые если и будут использоваться, то в небольших количествах. Но у (президента США Дональда) Трампа очень серьезная головная боль – как достичь обозначенного им рубежа в 355 боевых единиц на флоте. Сюда входит строительство фрегатов нового поколения – это 52 единицы. Надо обеспечить строительство новых авианосцев, это дорогостоящая вещь. Плюс строительство новых атомных подводных ракетоносцев – 12 единиц. Получается, что в общей сложности 80 единиц до 2028 года надо построить. А строительство каждого нового корабля, плюс обслуживание, экипажи, боеприпасы, расходы на патрулирование мирового океана – все это стоит огромных денег. Только в бюджете на следующий финансовый год ВМС потребует 180 млрд долларов. Откуда брать деньги?.. Помимо того, что кораблестроительная программа не позволит осилить строительство такого количества новых кораблей, но еще потребуются огромные денежные вливания", – сказал Владимир Козин.

Помимо этого, по его словам, ВМС США сталкиваются в ходе реализации поставленных перед ними амбициозных задач и с организационными сложностями.

"Еще одна причина, по которой рассматривается вопрос о возврате в строй зарезервированных фрегатов – это потому что отложено строительство новых фрегатов. Не решен вопрос, на каких верфях их строить и в каком количестве. Поэтому и решается вопрос о том, чтобы заменить их пока тем, что есть под рукой", – полагает Владимир Козин.

Источник: РИА Новости 

В. Козин: У учений «Морской щит-2017» есть несколько «адресатов»

Что делать НАТО в Чёрном море? Оно и так уже «пасётся» в Средиземном

Совместные учения «Морской щит-2017» при участии семи стран НАТО и Украины стартуют в Черном море. Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik выразил мнение, что у этих учений сразу несколько «адресатов».

Военно-морские учения «Морской щит-2017» при участии семи стран-членов НАТО и Украины стартуют в среду, 1 февраля, говорится в сообщении, опубликованном на сайте ВМС Румынии.

Отмечается, что в учениях примут участие порядка 2,8 тысячи военнослужащих из Румынии, Болгарии, Греции, Турции, США, Канады, Испании и Украины.

ВМС Румынии сообщают, что в рамках учений военные «будут осуществлять стандартные процедуры НАТО по борьбе с воздушными, подводными и надводными угрозами», учения пройдут в Черном море на площади порядка 80 тысяч квадратных километров.

В учениях примут участие 11 военных судов и четыре самолета Румынии, а также шесть самолетов и пять военных судов других стран-участниц.

Кроме того, как заявил во вторник, 31 января, генсек альянса Йенс Столтенберг, министры обороны 28 стран-членов НАТО на встрече 15-16 февраля в Брюсселе одобрят пакет мер по усилению военного присутствия в регионе Черного моря.

При этом, как показал очередной опрос в рамках проекта «Sputnik.Мнения», большинство европейцев считают, что Евросоюзу для защиты от внешних угроз необходимы США и НАТО. И только 48% американцев согласны с таким утверждением.

Среди жителей Европы в необходимости существования альянса больше других убеждены поляки и итальянцы (по 65%), а также немцы (63%). Доля тех, кто не сомневается в способности ЕС защитить себя самостоятельно, выше всего во Франции, Испании и США – так в этих странах считают около трети опрошенных.

Главный советник директора РИСИ, профессор Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин считает, что у учений «Морской щит-2017» есть несколько «адресатов».

«Эти учения адресованы, в первую очередь, Российской Федерации. Во вторую – всем союзникам по НАТО, мол, соблюдайте военно-морскую солидарность. Кроме того, это адресовано Украине – мы вас не бросим, мы вас прикроем с моря. При этом цель явно провокационная. Что делать в замкнутом Черном море натовским группировкам? Они и так уже с окончания Второй мировой войны «пасутся» в Средиземном море. И сейчас постоянно находятся на патрулировании, сменяя друг друга, и в Черном море. Что они там потеряли? А потеряли они, прежде всего, необходимость бряцания оружием», – сказал Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik.

Он обратил внимание, что в последнее время на Западе нередко звучат заявления о необходимости налаживания диалога с РФ. При этом НАТО все больше усиливает свою активность.

«Это касается и морских пространств, и наземных, и я бы еще добавил обязательно военно-воздушную составляющую. ВВС 15 государств НАТО участвуют в операции «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», которая была начата аж в марте 2004 года и ведется в небе Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии. Зачем все это делается? Неужели непонятно, что нельзя постоянно говорить о какой-то нормализации, о каком-то миролюбии, и при этом держать за пазухой этот «комбинированный кулак»«, – отметил военный эксперт.

По его мнению, нет ничего удивительного в том, что в данных учениях не участвуют одни из ведущих стран НАТО – Германия и Франция.

«В зависимости от типа задач, которые отрабатываются на учениях, присутствует определенный набор стран. Это решает высшее военное руководство государств, которые приглашаются принимать участие в этих учениях. То, что, например, Германия и Франция не участвуют в этих учениях, принципиально ни о чем не говорит, будут участвовать в других. Отказа или «отката» Берлина и Парижа в военно-морской деятельности НАТО в данном регионе пока нет», – заключил Владимир Козин.

Источник: РИСИ

В. Козин: Уверен, НАТО не даст позитивного ответа на предложение В. Путина

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в эфире радио Sputnik.

Владимир Путин предложил меры по деэскалации обстановки в Европе в условиях прекращения действия Договора о ракетах средней и меньшей дальности. По его словам, напряженность между Россией и НАТО не ослабевает, очевидны новые угрозы для общеевропейской безопасности.

"В частности, речь могла бы идти о мерах проверки в отношении комплексов "Иджис Эшор" с пусковыми установками Мк-41 на базах США и НАТО в Европе, а также ракет 9М729 на объектах ВС РФ в Калининградской области", - говорится в заявлении.

В.П. Козин: «США выходят из договоров по контролю над вооружениями по нескольким причинам. Во-первых, они хотят модернизировать свой ядерный потенциал.  Во-вторых, они реализуют провозглашенное ими негативное отношение к 13 двусторонним и многосторонним договорам в сфере контроля над вооружениями. Их этих 13 соглашений США проявляют негативное отношение к шести договорным актам, которые имеют прямое или косвенное отношение к ядерному оружию. Они используют все известные способы блокирования их: путем их нарушения, отказа от их ратификации, форму одностороннего выхода из них и метод полного отказа от их обсуждения».

Эфир от 26 октября.

Источник: радио Sputnik

В. Козин: Угроза американских ракетных эсминцев реальна

К 2040 году американцы будут иметь до 96 кораблей типа Arleigh Burke

4 марта 2019 года Владимир Путин издал указ о приостановлении участия в ДРСМД. На следующий день главнокомандующий Объединенными вооруженными силами НАТО в Европе Кертис Скапарротти заявил о якобы растущей угрозе со стороны России и призвал расширить число военнослужащих, а также военных кораблей и самолетов.

Как пишет Defense News, Скапаротти запросил еще два эсминца для военно-морской базы США в Испании, где сейчас находятся четыре ракетных эсминца класса Arleigh Burke с боевыми системами Aegis. Главная задача этих эсминцев - сбивать российские баллистические ракеты в случае их запуска.

Строительство эсминцев с управляемым ракетным оружием (УРО) типа Arleigh Burke продолжается. По словам ведущего эксперта Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимира Козина, американцы способны создать до 96 кораблей, оснащенных системами противоракетной обороны и вооруженных крылатыми ракетами морского базирования.

«Arleigh Burke - это эсминец УРО, который, как раз имеет до 98 ракет-перехватчиков, крылатых ракет, ракет для борьбы с подводными лодками, противокорабельных ракет. По действующей кораблестроительной программе США, которая закончится в начале 2040 годов, они будут иметь от 84 до 96 кораблей, которые будут оснащены системами противоракетной обороны и вооружены крылатыми ракетами морского базирования. Угроза эта реальная», - предупредил Козин в интервью журналистам «Специального репортажа».

Источник: Телеканал "Звезда"

В. Козин: Украина села в лужу

Украина не смогла поставить США единственный танк, о продаже которого страны договорились несколько лет назад. Комментируя ситуацию в эфире радио Sputnik, военный эксперт Владимир Козин отметил, что украинские власти окончательно уничтожили свою военную промышленность.

Украина не смогла поставить США единственный экземпляр основного боевого танка "Оплот", о продаже которого объявлялось еще в феврале прошлого года. Об этом сообщается в блоге Центра анализа стратегий и технологий bmpd.

Предполагалось, что боевая машина окажется в распоряжении американских военных после того, как Украина выполнит контракт на поставку "Оплотов" в Таиланд. Госконцерн "Укроборонпром" отчитался о завершении поставок в марте 2018-го, однако уже в июне выяснилось, что Пентагон вряд ли получит свой экземпляр.

По данным bmpd, тогда госкомпания "Спецтехноэкспорт", специализирующаяся на экспорте и импорте оружия и военных технологий, подписала с производителем – Харьковским заводом имени Малышева – мировое соглашение о разрыве договора купли-продажи и передачи танка.

Договор о передаче машины для дальнейшего экспорта в США стороны заключили еще в 2012 году, однако за семь лет стоимость производства выросла в четыре раза.

Профессор академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik прокомментировал ситуацию.

"Тот факт, что Украина села в лужу со своим военно-техническим сотрудничеством с американцами, не вызывает никаких вопросов. Как говорится, за что боролись, на то и напоролись. Так раздраконили свою военную промышленность, свои заводы по производству вооружений, что опозорились на весь белый свет. Кстати, бывало и так, что украинская военная техника, которую Киев старается направить куда угодно, возвращалась обратно домой, к украинским горе-продавцам. Нынешние киевские власти уничтожили свою военную промышленность, стало быть, и свою военную мощь", – сказал Владимир Козин.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: Украинский обман может дорого обойтись и России, и Европе

Чернобыль стал победой так называемой "партии мира". Украинские власти обманули Россию, создав риск ядерной угрозы не только для самих себя, но и для всей Европы.

Координационный штаб по гуманитарному реагированию Министерства обороны России сообщил, что Украина при поддержке США и ЕС может попытаться устроить утечку радиации в зоне Чернобыльской АЭС и обвинить во всём Россию. Возможно, это и есть то самое "великой событие", которое ранее обещал своим гражданам министр иностранных дел Украины Дмитрий Кулеба.

Киев хочет обвинить Россию в том, что она якобы допустила утечку радиации, когда в начале прошлого года русские военные взяли под контроль территорию Чернобыльской АЭС. Сделано это было для того, чтобы ВСУ не устроили новую ядерную катастрофу в попытках остановить русское наступление. В конечном итоге Киев на переговорах в Стамбуле заверил Россию, что не станет этого делать. Москва согласилась на "шаг доброй воли" и отвела свои войска с ранее занятых территорий, за что потом горько поплатилась, потому что украинские власти не моргнув глазом обманули Москву.

Сначала случилось грандиозное фейк-шоу в Буче, а теперь ВСУ, по всей видимости, готовят провокацию в Чернобыльской зоне отчуждения.

Член-корреспондент Российской академии военных наук Владимир Козин, выступая в программе Царьграда "Мы в курсе", прокомментировал ситуацию. Он заявил, что этот обман может дорого обойтись и России, и Европе. Ведь если украинские войска действительно устроят ядерную провокацию на законсервированной ЧАЭС, то всё будет зависеть от уровня выброса и направления ветра. В прошлый раз, когда произошла авария на реакторе, ветер понёс радиоактивные облака в сторону Запада. В результате всплеск радиации зафиксировали даже в Британии.

Раз они контролируют ЧАЭС, они могут сделать всё что угодно. Всё зависит от того, куда подует ветер. Когда Чернобыль рванул, ветер пошёл на Запад через Калиниград, Швецию - и докатилось до Британии, - напомнил он.

Отметим, что украинские власти и украинская армия довольно легкомысленно относятся к ядерной угрозе. Киев после госпереворота 2014 года подписал соглашение с американской компанией Westinghouse на поставку топливных элементов для своих старых советских АЭС, которые имеют свою специфику и явно не рассчитаны на американские ТВЭЛ. А когда началась спецоперация, ВСУ начали активно стрелять по Запорожской АЭС, которую взяла под контроль армия России. Угроза ядерной катастрофы, которая в первую очередь ударит по самой Украине, никого тогда не остановила.

Источник: Царьград

 

В. Козин: Украинский режим сделал всё, чтобы никаких переговоров не было

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин отвечает на вопросы ИА “Аврора”.

Ведущий: Михаил Кокорев.

Эфир от 2 июня 2022 г.

Ссылка на полную версию программы

 

В. Козин: Украинцы установили в общей сложности около 400 различных мин

Военный эксперт пояснил, что за мину нашли у берегов Одессы

Старая морская мина, которую после шторма вынесло на берег Одессы, принадлежит Украине. На это указывает форма морского боеприпаса и наличие на нем ржавчины. Об этом в беседе с URA.RU рассказал член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ (АВН) Владимир Козин.

«По данным Российского министерства обороны, украинцы установили в общей сложности около 400 различных мин, которые крепятся с помощью якорей ко дну, или просто находятся в погруженном состоянии, чтобы их не было видно, или плавучие. Несколько во время шторма оторвались от своих тросов, две были обнаружены военно-морскими силами Турции и одна у берегов Румынии. И вот эта четвертая. По ее форме, по ржавчине, которая на мине сохранилась, видно, что она старая, не наша, а украинская», — подчеркнул Владимир Козин.

Спикер объяснил, что Россия за время спецоперации не занималась минированием участков Черного моря или сухопутных территорий. «РФ это не нужно абсолютно, у нас есть другие средства борьбы — высокоточные гиперзвуковые и иные системы ракетных вооружений, артиллерийские системы большой дальности, авиация. Не было ни одного сообщения, начиная с 24 февраля, что мы где-то минировали какие-то участки Черного моря или сухопутные территории. Мины нужны для того, чтобы препятствовать нахождению российских боевых кораблей, вспомогательных судов, чтобы не высаживался десант», — добавил Козин.

Собеседник отметил, что помимо морских мин, вооруженные силы Украины установили и наземные сухопутные вдоль побережья и даже на пляжах. «Помимо мин, дрейфующих или закрепленных у морского дна, украинская сторона еще установила сухопутные наземные вдоль побережья, даже на пляжах. Сделали они это с помощью специального траншеекопателя, чтобы воспрепятствовать появлению десанта с моря. Минирование было проведено, в частности, на косе, которая отделяет Азовское море от залива Сиваш. Сообщения такие были. Распространяя фейк о мине у Одессы, украинские деятели явно хотели отвлечь внимание мировой общественности от проблемы масштабного минирования акватории Черного моря Киевом и нарушения международного морского права, а также блокирования 75 иностранных гражданских судов в украинских портах, которые пока контролируются ВСУ», — подытожил Козин.

Ранее глава Одесской ОВА Максим Марченко заявил в своем telegram-канале, что после шторма на берег Одессы вынесло мину. Марченко подчеркнул, что принадлежит боеприпас российской стороне. О минировании вооруженными силами Украины подходов к портам Одесса, Очаков, Черноморск и Южный в Центре общественных связей (ЦОС) ФСБ заявили в середине марта. После чего ВМС Турции попросили корабли отслеживать дрейфующие мины и был введен запрет на рыбную ловлю ночью в части акватории Черного моря.

Автор: Юлия Сычева. Источник: Ura.ru

 

В. Козин: Учения кораблей НАТО в Балтийском море — это демонстрация силы

Военный эксперт заявил, что нужно внимательно отслеживать действия альянса в этой зоне, которая из-за него же стала местом военного противостояния

Группа кораблей НАТО, вошедшая в Балтийское море для участия в учениях с соседними странами – союзниками и государствами-партнёрами, на самом деле демонстрирует свою силу, которая носит антироссийских характер. Таким мнением поделился с Лайфом член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин.

"То, что натовцы проводят там учения, — это никакая не новость, потому что они проводят такие учения каждый год и всё в увеличенном составе. Конечно, это не просто демонстрация флага. Это демонстрация, к сожалению, силы. Эта сила носит антироссийский характер", — сказал он.

Вместе с тем Козин обратил внимание на нидерландский корабль, который будет принимать участие в учениях, — De Zeven Provincien. По словам эксперта, судно связано с системой противоракетной обороны Америки и оборудовано специальной радиолокационной станцией, которая обслуживает систему ПРО США.

Военный эксперт подчеркнул, что нужно особо внимательно отслеживать действия натовцев в Балтийском море. Он напомнил, что в 1960-х годах существовало движение "Балтийское море должно стать зоной мира". Однако в результате альянс превратил его в место военного противостояния.

"Обычно есть задачи, которые натовцами объявляются открыто, а есть закрытые задачи, которые они тоже отрабатывают. Так не бывает, чтобы просто вышли, как говорят, на яхт-прогулку по Балтийскому морю. Но, увы, история об этом [других задачах] умалчивает", — заключил Козин.

Ранее сообщалось, что группа кораблей НАТО вошла в Балтийское море. Их задача — "продемонстрировать присутствие союзников в этом регионе и провести совместные учения с эстонским военно-морским флотом".

Источник: Life

В. Козин: Холодная война не прекращалась и стала более интенсивной

Военный эксперт заявил о наступлении второй фазы холодной войны

Холодная война не прекращалась, а сейчас вступила во вторую фазу и стала более интенсивной, считает член-корреспондент Академии военных наук Российской Федерации, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, кандидат исторических наук Владимир Козин. Своим мнением он поделился с «Лентой.ру».

Ранее председатель правления банка ВТБ Андрей Костин предрек «холодную войну 2.0», в которой мировые державы в очередной раз жестко поделятся на «своих» и «чужих».

Хотя официально холодная война завершилась в ноябре 1990 года, когда все европейские государства, входившие в ОБСЕ, и США признали ее окончание в Парижской Хартии для новой Европы, события, разворачивавшиеся после этой даты, показывали, что такая война отнюдь не закончилась, заявил Козин.

Отличительные признаки

По словам Козина, вторая фаза холодной войны отличается от первой некоторыми признаками объективного характера. Во-первых, в сфере контроля над вооружениями наблюдается полный застой.

«Американцы не хотят урегулировать 13 ключевых проблем в сфере контроля над вооружениями — они по-прежнему остаются в подвешенном состоянии. Например, США вышли из Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, он по-прежнему разорван ими в одностороннем порядке. Например, Вашингтон не ратифицировал Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний, хотя он был подписан и представлен на ратификацию очень давно — еще в 1996 году. Также Соединенные Штаты не хотят обсуждать подписание международного договора об отказе превращать космическое пространство в зону боевых действий — этот проект давно лежит на столе Женевской конференции по разоружению», — уточнил эксперт.

Второе отличие — это резкое количество антироссийских санкций, число которых уже достигло 10 тысяч, заявил Козин. Третье отличие — «запредельная русофобия», четвертое — резко усилившееся вмешательство во внутренние дела РФ, пятое — попытка открытым способом свергнуть тот строй, который утвердился в России, перечислил он.


Владимир Козин: Если взять во внимание все эти обстоятельства, то можно сказать, что наступила «холодная война 2.0», то есть во второй версии, или, как некоторые на Западе говорят, «горячая холодная война». Но я склоняюсь к тому, что холодная война никогда не заканчивалась, она лишь вступила во вторую и очень опасную фазу, которая ставит мир под угрозу и применения ядерного оружия, и развязывания третьей мировой войны.


Ранее шведские эксперты оценили риск ядерного конфликта. Они пришли к выводу, что он достиг наивысшего уровня со времен холодной войны, поскольку страны «ядерного клуба» начинают активно наращивать свои арсеналы.

Источник: Лента.ру

 

В. Козин: Цель западных санкций абсолютно нереальна

В США грезят об уничтожении главных союзников России — армии и флота

На днях бывший посол США на Украине, директор Евразийского центра Атлантического совета Джон Хербст заявил: основная цель всех санкций в отношении России заключается в том, чтобы лишить её сильной армии и флота. «И мы не хотим, чтобы сильная агрессивная держава имела сильную армию или сильный морской флот», — привел, в частности, слова функционера русскоязычный телеканал RT.

Поскольку это заявление Джон Хербст сделал в телестудии «незалежной» Украины, вероятно, кое-кто из местных телезрителей и воспринял это пафосное заявление всерьез. Однако в среде российских военных экспертов это высказывание вызвало как минимум скептическую усмешку.

Так, например, профессор академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин назвал эту цель абсолютно нереальной.

— Санкции, как известно, введены уже давно и самими американцами, и от Евросоюза, — подчеркнул он в беседе с корреспондентом «СП». — Но, тем не менее, для нас ничего страшного не случилось. Сколько денег требуется на оборону, столько и выделяется. Перспективный госзаказ определен и выполняется.

Автор: Андрей Захарченко, Источник: “Свободная пресса”

В. Козин: Чем обусловлен рост военных расходов в странах НАТО?

Расходы на оборону в странах НАТО выросли на 4,6% в реальном выражении, сообщил генеральный секретарь альянса Йенс Столтенберг во время ежегодного доклада.

"Сильная поддержка НАТО в странах-союзницах демонстрирует, что мы выполняем поставленные задачи. В 2019 году мы обеспечили дальнейший прогресс в инвестициях в оборону. Расходы на оборону по всему Североатлантическому союзу увеличились на 4,6% в реальном выражении", – цитирует Столтенберга РИА Новости.

Он выразил надежду, что эта тенденция сохранится, несмотря на экономические проблемы из-за коронавируса. По словам Столтенберга, инвестиции в оборону полезны даже в таких ситуациях, как нынешняя.

"Вооруженные силы показали свои возможности при реагировании на такие кризисы, как коронавирус. Военные предоставляют потенциал, который очень полезен в преодолении стихийных бедствий и кризисов вокруг здоровья населения", – сказал генсек НАТО.

Ранее президент США Дональд Трамп неоднократно критиковал членов альянса за недостаточные расходы на коллективную оборону. Американский лидер призывал страны-союзницы довести расходы до 2% ВВП.

В эфире радио Sputnik профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин отметил, что задачи, которые перед собой ставит НАТО, требуют еще больших денежных вливаний.

"Напомню, что все государства, которые входят в альянс, до 2024 года должны выйти на уровень расходов на оборону в 2% ВВП, а потом, по прикидкам (президента США Дональда) Трампа, эта цифра должна быть увеличена в два раза, то есть до 4% ВВП. НАТО перед собой поставило грандиозную задачу – укрепить свой потенциал в глобальном измерении. Это ракетно-ядерное оружие и средства его доставки, противоракетная оборона и силы общего назначения, глобальное военное присутствие. По сути, зоной жизненно важных интересов альянса является весь земной шар. Огромное количество военных баз должно обслуживаться, укрепляться, все это требует огромных денежных вливаний. Йенс Столтенберг своим заявлением признает, что это действительно так, и в этом нет никаких преувеличений", – сказал Владимир Козин.

Источник: Sputnik

В. Козин: Честь и хвала российским саперам

Российские саперы приступили к разминированию сирийского Дейр-эз-Зора. Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik обратил внимание, что Россия – единственная страна, которая проводит подобные операции в Сирии.

Специалисты Международного противоминного центра Вооруженных сил РФ приступили к гуманитарному разминированию сирийского города Дейр-эз-Зор, сообщает Минобороны России.

"В первую очередь специалисты Международного противоминного центра Вооруженных сил Российской Федерации разминируют дороги, ведущие к объектам социальной инфраструктуры города, больницам, объектам водоснабжения и электроснабжения", – говорится в сообщении.

Отмечается, что сейчас группы инженерной разведки и разминирования очищают дороги, обочины и прилегающие здания на подъездах к городу и его окраинах, чтобы обеспечить безопасность гуманитарных конвоев, направляемых в Дейр-эз-Зор.

По данным оборонного ведомства, в ходе гуманитарного разминирования российские инженеры используют новейшие миноискатели ИМП-С2, переносные искатели проводных линий управления взрывными устройствами ПИПЛ, переносные искатели неконтактных взрывных устройств ИНВУ-3М, радиолокационные приборы подповерхностного зондирования ОКО-2, блокираторы радиоуправляемых устройств и другие перспективные образцы техники.

Уточняется, что отряд разминирования оснащен новейшими бронетранспортерами БТР-82АМ и бронеавтомобилями "Тайфун", "Рысь". Для дистанционного разминирования местности используется многофункциональный робототехнический комплекс "Уран-6". Саперы экипированы в новейшие общевойсковые комплекты разминирования ОВР-2-02.

"Всего в Сирию переброшено более 170 военнослужащих Международного противоминного центра Вооруженных сил Российской Федерации, 40 единиц специальной и инженерной техники, 10 расчетов минно-розыскной службы", – говорится в сообщении.

Профессор Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik отметил профессионализм российских военных, занимающихся разминированием Дейр-эз-Зор. Военный эксперт напомнил, что это не первый город, в котором работают российские специалисты.

"Противоминная борьба и извлечение мин в различных местах, где трудно предположить, что они заминированы – это проблема очень острая. Если вспомнить Пальмиру, которую разминировали наши саперы, то только там, по информации наших военных, было обнаружено более 17 тысяч единиц мин и взрывоопасных предметов. В Алеппо еще больше – 25 тысяч. И таких пунктов на территории Сирии достаточно много. Работа очень кропотливая, несмотря на то, что стали применять специализированную технику – и (роботов-саперов) "Уран-6", и детектор мин типа "Коршун". Но здесь надо еще учитывать, что большая часть мин профессионально изготовлена. Мины-самоделки составляют от общего количества только порядка 2%. То есть остальные мины – это очень изощренные инструменты уничтожения людей и боевой техники. Поэтому честь и хвала нашим саперам Международного противоминного центра, которые проводят огромнейшую работу. Ни одна страна не проводила такой масштабной противоминной акции на территории Сирии", – отметил Владимир Козин.

По его мнению, России в Сирии не стоит ждать помощи со стороны западных стран.

"Те же американцы никогда не будут заниматься разминированием. Они могут звонить во все колокола и трубить на весь земной шар, что они якобы борются с терроризмом в Сирии. Но они никогда серьезно не работали против террористических группировок, они, наоборот, оказывают им поддержку. Трудно даже себе представить, какое количество мин, боеприпасов для минометов, для артиллерийских систем, просто для автоматов и пулеметов террористы получили за пять лет ведения войны против сирийского народа. И эта подпитка шла со стороны стран Запада, сами террориста никогда не создали бы такое количество боеприпасов. Американцы всегда вели двойную игру и всегда будут ее вести, продолжая выступать за свержение (президента Сирии) Башара Асада. Поэтому не стоит питать никаких иллюзий: с натовцами и с США сотрудничать в борьбе с террористами в Сирии невозможно. Это будет обычная болтовня, а на самом деле Запад будет только вставлять палки в колеса России и оказывать помощь террористам ", – считает военный эксперт.

Источник: ИноСМИ

В. Козин: Эвакуация дипломатов США из Украины стала предвестником войны в Донбассе

Искусственный накал страстей вокруг Киева продолжает усиливаться. Вашингтон готов начать эвакуацию своих граждан из дипломатических миссий на Украине. Значит ли это, что война украинского режима против Донбасса все-таки будет развязана, рассказал член-корреспондент РАВН Владимир Козин.

Один из главных американских телеканалов CNN сообщает, что посольство Соединенных Штатов направило запрос в Госдепартамент на получение разрешения об эвакуации всех сотрудников неосновного персонала американских дипломатических представительств, расположенных на территории Украины, и их семей. Источник заявляет, что этот процесс может начаться на следующей неделе.

Представитель дипломатического ведомства США разъяснил, что Вашингтон принял такое решение в связи с эскалацией обстановки на Украине.

«Граждане США не должны ожидать, что будет организована эвакуация за счет правительства. В настоящее время доступны коммерческие рейсы для поддержки отъезда», — отметили при этом в Государственном департаменте.

Ранее Государственный департамент также разместил рекомендации, которые предлагали отказаться от поездок на Украину в связи с «осложнениями на российской границе».

Дым без огня

Член-корреспондент Российской Академии военных наук Владимир Козин в беседе с журналистом «ПолитЭксперта» обратил внимание на всю серьезность осуществляемых в соседней стране военных приготовлений. По его мнению, подобные объявления и разъяснения делаются перед началом крупных военных операций:

«К этому нужно относиться очень серьезно. Обычно такие мероприятия проводятся перед началом боевых действий, перед началом войны, поэтому и принято такое решение об эвакуации, если таковая будет иметь место. Это традиционная практика на дипломатической службе, чтобы дипломаты и другие сотрудники дипломатических миссий не пострадали. Поэтому их заранее отзывают домой».

Напомним, что по данным, предоставленным народной милицией Донецкой Народной Республики, Киев принял значительные меры по формированию мощной военной группировки у Донбасса. Туда продолжают прибывать радикальные объединения из запрещенного в России экстремистского «Правого сектора»*, снайперы местной «Альфы», а также другие спецподразделения СБУ. Сконцентрированы значительные соединения ВСУ с наступательными видами тяжелых вооружений.

Эшелон реактивных систем залпового огня «Ураган» и «Смерч», оборудованных кассетными боеприпасами, был размещен в Красноармейске. На фоне непрекращающихся поставок вооружения Незалежной со стороны стран-членов НАТО в Донбассе ожидаются многочисленные диверсии украинских спецслужб и сил специальных операций. Несмотря на вызывающую тревогу активизацию действий ВСУ, лидеры зарубежных стран не перестают делать одиозные заявления в адрес России.

«Киев обещал напасть на Донбасс, и он нападет. Я не понимаю, почему Запад предъявляет претензии к нам? Мы многократно заявляли, что не собираемся нападать, открывать первыми огонь. Конечно, если нас атакуют, то мы дадим решительный отпор в ответ. Но у меня складывается впечатление, что звучание украинской темы на переговорах с американцами и натовцами по гарантиям безопасности — это зловещий маневр, чтобы отвлечь внимание от основной темы, которую Россия предложила решить посредством гарантий безопасности в свете нарастающих комбинированных угроз нашей национальной безопасности со стороны США и НАТО. Они хотят вызвать у нас комплекс неполноценности, вины, потому что везде, на всех площадках США и НАТО используют тезис о российском военном присутствии у границ с Украиной», — подчеркнул Владимир Козин.

По его словам, требования по деэскалации ситуации должны быть обращены не к России, а к Украине и североатлантическому союзу во главе с США, которые подталкивают Киев к агрессии и поставляют ему огромное количество смертоносных видов вооружений.

Обезумевший Зеленский

Внешнеполитическое ведомство России опубликовало 17 декабря два проекта договоров с США и НАТО по гарантиям безопасности, в которых изложило основные требования к геополитическим оппонентам. В документах заявлено о необходимости прекратить безостановочное расширение Североатлантического альянса на восток, отказаться от принятия Украины в НАТО и остановить процесс размещения в странах постсоветского пространства военнослужащих и тяжелых видов вооружений других государств.

В январе этого года Россия провела с США, НАТО и ОБСЕ раздельные дискуссии по широкому кругу вопросов безопасности. Последняя встреча состоялась 21 января между главами внешнеполитических ведомств РФ и Соединенных Штатов Сергеем Лавровым и Энтони Блинкеном.

Западная сторона обещает подготовить письменный ответ на российские предложения, который, как свидетельствуют заявления американских представителей, будет иметь узконаправленный характер и не отразит конструктивной реакции Вашингтона на инициативы Москвы. Генеральный секретарь НАТО Йенс Столтенберг предлагает обсуждать затронутые Кремлем вопросы в рамках «тихой дипломатии», не информируя мировую общественность.

Практически на всех проведенных переговорах западные участники затрагивали украинскую тематику. Они настойчиво педалировали идею «нападения» на Киев, не раз предпринимали попытку надавить на Россию. Однако, судя по недавним новостям, именно Украина готовится к масштабным военным действиям, причем при поддержке иностранных государств, полагает член-корреспондент РАВН:

«Я считаю, что мы недостаточно показываем всему мировому сообществу, что вообще-то войну готовит Киев при поддержке Соединенных Штатов и очень многих государств-членов НАТО. Участвуют даже не входящие в Аальянс государства, например, "нейтральная" Швеция , которая открыто поставляет оружие ультранационалистическому киевскому режиму».

Сложно предположить, какой масштаб будет иметь та военная акция, которую задумал и вскоре может реализовать глава Незалежной Владимир Зеленский. Несмотря на недавнее свое обращение к народу, где он призвал не верить слухам об эскалации конфликта, глава украинского режима продолжает к нему готовиться.

«Стянуты огромные вооруженные силы. Удивляюсь, почему мы до сих пор не продемонстрировали снимки из космоса об этой концентрации украинской военной машины у зоны соприкосновения между Украиной и Донбассом. Туда уже подтянуты РЗСО, танки, бронетранспортеры. Это крайне опасные виды вооружений. Готовится прямая агрессия против ЛНР и ДНР. Владимир Зеленский распоясался, потому что чувствует значительную морально-политическую и военно-техническую поддержку со стороны Соединенных Шатов и НАТО», — констатировал военный эксперт.

Молчание ОБСЕ

Особое недоумение у собеседника ПЭ вызывает молчание международных организаций, в частности, ОБСЕ. В ее структурах в 1993 году был принят важный документ о принципах, запрещающих поставки оружия в зоны конфликтов. Утвержден и международный договор о торговле средствами ведения войны.

«Почему ОБСЕ не говорит, что еще в 1993 году эта уважаемая организация, где 57 государств, в числе которых и сами США, приняла решение о том, что нельзя поставлять оружие в зоны, где имеется конфликтная ситуация? Почему мы в ОБСЕ не ставим вопрос? Почему ни в одном официальном заявлении я не увидел ссылку на это решение ОБСЕ?» — задается вопросами политолог.

Военные подарки

Благодаря военным поставкам, которые осуществляются из трех стран Балтии, Чехии, Польши, Турции и Великобритании, официальный Киев хочет начать настоящий блицкриг. Пока из крупных стран-членов НАТО только Германия занимает осторожную позицию в отношении экспорта вооружений Украине.

«Я считаю, мы должны усилить свое давление. Не оправдываться постоянно, что можем на своей территории держать свои войска. Не это главное, а то, что Украина концентрирует огромную военную машину у Донбасса. Попутно замечу, что не только у ДНР, но и у белорусской границы — 10 000 человек, и на российской границе: в Черниговской, Сумской и Харьковской областях, севернее Донбасса, и на южном направлении, напротив Республики Крым. Мы об этом почему-то не говорим, никаких количественных показателей сосредоточения ВСУ не приводим, фотоснимков и схем их концентрации не размещаем. Между прочим, такие информационные меры позволили бы снять необоснованное пропагандистское воздействие на Россию. А также показать того, кто реально готов разжечь пламя войны в Европе», — заключил Владимир Козин.

При этом важно понимать, что Россия никогда не пойдет в наступление первой. Это не соответствует ее интересам.

«Россия первая не пойдет, на Западе это уже поняли. Нам это не нужно. И потом, где, когда и против кого идти? Против Украины? Зачем? У нас что своей территории мало? Нет», — выразил уверенность политолог.

Мир на крови

У Украины есть две первопричины для создания военного очага напряженности: возвращение территории Донбасса любыми средствами и препятствование налаживанию диалога между Москвой и Вашингтоном по проблемам укрепления безопасности на принципиально новой основе, уверен эксперт.

«Главное для Киева — это военным, силовым, кровавым путем вернуть Донбасс. То есть 800 тысяч человек, которые там проживают, вернуть в профашистское, пробандеровское ультранационалистическое государство под названием Украина, куда, кстати, жители Донбасса возвращаться не хотят. Вторая причина — это сорвать переговорный процесс России с США и НАТО о гарантиях безопасности. С 17 декабря прошлого года они до сих пор не ответили. Западные "визави" явно тянут резину. Стало известно общее направление этого возможного ответа с американской и натовской сторон. Складывается впечатление, что ответ будет содержательно пустым. Они не ответят по существу ни на один важный вопрос, который имеет огромное значение для обеспечения нашей безопасности, но выставят кучу неадекватных контрпретензий», — дал неутешительный прогноз собеседник ПЭ.

Автор: Ада Филонова. Источник: ПолитЭксперт

В. Козин: Эстония становится главной натовской ядерной базой

Расширение НАТО на Восток - что на самом деле стоит за этой сухой формулировкой, можно своими глазами увидеть сейчас в Таллине, в 300 километрах от Санкт-Петербурга, где в эти дни бойцы НАТО отрабатывают ведение боев в городских условиях.

Все происходит в условиях повышенной секретности, никаких разрешений на съемку и никаких журналистов. Но маневры ведутся в городских кварталах, и от местных жителей ничего не утаить.

Корреспондент «Звезды» стала свидетелем картины: тихое эстонское утро, безмятежное, как легкий балтийский бриз, по улочкам Таллина неспешно движется туристический автобус, но вот из него выходят вооруженные до зубов крепкие парни в камуфляже, и через минуту на территории бывшей городской тюрьмы раздаются выстрелы.

Позже выяснится, что эти две сотни вооруженных парней не террористы, а Арденнские стрелки (входящая в альянс боевая группа Королевской армии Бельгии), расквартированные здесь, неподалеку от Таллина. И зачем-то в условиях строжайшей секретности они учатся вести бои прямо в жилых густонаселенных кварталах. Неужели в Эстонии кто-то верит, что в ближайшее время этот навык может пригодиться?

Позже известный эстонский правозащитник Сергей Середенко покажет другие кадры - почти круглые сутки, наводя ужас на местных жителей, зеленые натовские человечки отрабатывали все ту же тактику уличных боев с ловкостью Капитана Америка, прячась то на огородах, то на детских площадках, то пробираясь ползком вдоль изгороди.

«Мне очень стыдно за муниципалитеты, которые разрешают проведение таких учений на территории своих городов, потому что, в принципе, их ответ должен быть однозначен: "Идите нафиг". Просто идите нафиг отсюда! И нечего вам здесь делать и пугать наших мамаш своими холостыми выстрелами», - возмущается руководитель проекта «Русский омбудсмен в Эстонии» Сергей Середенко.

Тем временем в городке Тапа, где находится крупнейшая в Эстонии база НАТО, король Бельгии Филипп пожмет руки и поблагодарит за службу тех самых крепких парней с автоматами наперевес, бельгийского монарха прокатят на БТР и покажут, как его соотечественникам служится вместе с другими солдатами НАТО.

«С бельгийской стороной у нас плодотворное сотрудничество в области охраны воздушного пространства», - напомнил командующий Силами обороны Эстонии генерал-майор Мартин Херем.

Нога дядюшки Сэма впервые ступила на эти земли в начале нулевых, когда Эстония готовилась шагнуть в НАТО. Долгое годы американское присутствие здесь носило символический характер, но все изменил крымский референдум. Тогда сенатор Джон Маккейн дал старт операции «Атлантическая решимость». И Североатлантический альянс начал буквально нашпиговывать Литву, Латвию и Эстонию солдатами и военной техникой Made in USA, а базы НАТО, словно по плану «Анаконда», теперь душат Россию со всех сторон.

Да и все визиты высоких гостей из Брюсселя и Вашингтона проходят под безостановочный гул взрывов и лязг танковых гусениц: одни военные игрища сменяют другие.

Источник: телеканал "Звезда"

В. Козин: Эти огромные средства могли бы выделить врачам и учителям

Политолог удивился размеру военных расходов Латвии

 

Для обеспечения безопасности Латвии необходимо иметь более разнообразное вооружение, в частности боевые вертолеты и зенитные ракетные комплексы Patriot, заявил министр обороны Артис Пабрикс. По его словам, пока соответствующего финансирования в стране все еще недостаточно, Латвии не помешало бы размещение ракетных систем противовоздушной обороны средней дальности - пары американских комплексов Patriot.

Американцы неплохо зарабатывают, поставляя в Балтию свое тяжелое вооружение, а маленькое государство направляет огромные средства на оборону вместо того, чтобы выделить их врачам и учителям, заявил Sputnik Латвия Владимир Козин, член научного совета Национального института исследований глобальной безопасности, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России.

"Удивительно, как маленькие государства Балтии тратят такие огромные средства на военные цели вместо того, чтобы выделить деньги на образование, здравоохранение, развитие инфраструктуры, помощь пенсионерам. Вместо этого мирному населению выдают инструкции, как вести себя в годы "агрессии", проводятся военные учения с привлечением местных жителей. Курс властей направлен на милитаризацию общества, и не видно никакого желания его пересмотреть", - подчеркнул Козин.

Эксперт констатировал, что США зарабатывают большие деньги, внедряя в государства Балтии боевую технику и тяжелое вооружение, в то время как отдельные региональные конфликты показали, что зенитно-ракетные комплексы Patriot нуждаются в замене на более современные системы.

 Пабрикс регулярно жалуется на нехватку средств на военные нужды, несмотря на то, что республика выполнила предписание НАТО и тратит на оборону два процента ВВП. Как только это случилось, Пабрикс завел речь о новом повышении расходов на оборону, президент Латвии Эгилс Левитс поддержал его инициативу.

Страны Балтии неоднократно заявляли о необходимости тратить больше денег на оборону в связи с якобы возросшей агрессией России. Москва при этом регулярно подчеркивает, что не имеет наступательных планов ни в одном из регионов мира, в том числе в Балтийском. Руководству НАТО об этом прекрасно известно, однако боевые силы и техника под выдуманным предлогом постоянно стягиваются к границам РФ, отмечал глава МИД РФ Сергей Лавров. Министр обороны РФ Сергей Шойгу, в свою очередь, заявлял, что действия альянса вынуждают Россию принимать ответные меры для укрепления безопасности - своей и союзников.

Источник: Sputnik Латвия

 

В. Козин: Это выглядит как настоящее надувательство

Зачем на закате холодной войны Советский Союз пошел на поводу у США и уничтожил ядерные ракеты

Генеральный секретарь ЦК КПСС Михаил Горбачев и президент США Рональд Рейган 8 декабря 1987 года подписали ДРСМД — Договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, который предполагал уничтожение целого класса вооружений. После этого многие страны Европы вздохнули с облегчением: противостояние Советского Союза и Соединенных Штатов, которое грозило им уничтожением, пошло на спад. Однако в 2019 году договор прекратил свое существование. Какую роль ДРСМД на самом деле сыграл в истории всего мира, почему его больше нет и как будет развиваться гонка вооружений между Россией и США? Об этом накануне годовщины подписания документа «Лента.ру» спросила у ведущего эксперта Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, члена-корреспондента Академии военных наук, автора книги «Перспективы Договора о ликвидации РСМД 1987 года. Белая книга» Владимира Козина.

***

«Лента.ру»: Кто был инициатором подписания этого соглашения? Как возникла идея запретить сразу целый класс вооружений? Такого ведь раньше не бывало.

Владимир Козин: Можно считать, что инициатором выступил Советский Союз, потому что приблизительно за два года до подписания этого договора руководитель СССР, партийный лидер Михаил Горбачев предложил поэтапно создать к 2000 году безъядерный мир. Это первое.

Второе. За несколько месяцев до подписания этого документа президент США Рональд Рейган публично выступил в Лос-Анджелесе, где предложил перейти на оборонительное сдерживание — имеется в виду, конечно, ядерное сдерживание, — которое, как он выразился, никому не угрожает.

Третья причина. Двойное решение НАТО, которое было принято в декабре 1979 года (двойным его называют потому, что оно распространялось на развертывание в Европе двух типов американских ракет — баллистических ракет «Першинг-2» и «Першинг-1А», а также крылатых ракет класса «Томагавк» — все в ядерном снаряжении), поставило советское руководство перед выбором, что делать с учетом названной реальности. И было принято решение усилить соответствующую ракетно-ядерную группировку, в основном в западных районах Советского Союза — например, в Калининградской области.

Когда американцы увидели, какое складывается положение, состоялся обмен мнениями о том, нельзя ли ликвидировать эти ракеты на взаимной основе в Европе. Но вскоре было принято решение о ликвидации этих типов американских и советских ракет вообще, в глобальном масштабе. С этим тогдашний руководитель США, республиканец Рональд Рейган согласился. Естественно, и Михаил Горбачев дал согласие, поскольку это отвечало его личным планам по ликвидации ядерного оружия в глобальном масштабе.

Вот так появился этот договор. По его условиям СССР уничтожил 1846 ракет, а американцы — ровно на тысячу единиц меньше, то есть 846. Забегая вперед, хочу сказать, что СССР не в полной мере воспользовался этой ситуацией, то есть не потребовал полного вывода американского тактического ядерного оружия из Европы и азиатской части Турции. Хотя Москва могла это сделать, потому что более чем двукратное сокращение ракетных систем Советским Союзом по сравнению с американцами было очень серьезной уступкой американской стороне.

— Какую роль ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, ставшие предметом договора, играли в системе обороны стран Варшавского договора и блока НАТО? Чем они превосходили те же межконтинентальные баллистические ракеты?

— Во-первых, они меньше межконтинентальных баллистических ракет (МБР) по дальности полета: к ракетам меньшей дальности относились ракетные системы от 500 до 1000 километров, а к ракетам средней дальности — от 1000 до 5500 километров. Далее как раз начинается межконтинентальная дальность. Но преимущество ракет средней и меньшей дальности двух сторон в то время заключалось в том, что подлетное время у них по сравнению с МБР было гораздо меньшим. Кроме того, они выдвигались обеими сторонами на передовые рубежи, то есть как можно ближе к территории, как тогда говорили, вероятного противника.

Учитывалось и другое обстоятельство. Американские ракеты тогдашних классов обладали достаточно большой мощностью ядерного боезаряда — в отдельных случаях до 80 килотонн, как, например, БРСД «Першинг-2». Что такое 80 килотонн? Та авиабомба, которую американцы сбросили на Хиросиму в августе 1945 года, имела боезаряд в 15 килотонн. Все знают, что в результате бомбардировок Хиросимы и Нагасаки несколько сотен тысяч жителей были просто уничтожены, множество людей получили ранения. Плюс разрушения материальной инфраструктуры. Опасность была очевидна.

С другой стороны, западноевропейские союзники США по НАТО опасались советских ядерных ракет. Особенно ракет «Пионер». Поэтому столь напряженная ракетная ситуация создавала взаимное беспокойство у Москвы и Вашингтона. И было принято в целом правильное решение о ликвидации двух классов ракет в глобальном масштабе — окончательно и бесповоротно. Но, повторяю, с огрехами с нашей стороны. По количеству уничтоженных ракет — это раз. Вторая ошибка — мы добровольно уничтожили оперативно-тактическую ракету «Ока», которая вообще не подпадала под параметры ракет средней и меньшей дальности.

— Как же так получилось, что мы уничтожили ракету, которая под договор не подпадала?

— Уничтожение ракеты «Ока» в одностороннем порядке Советским Союзом является результатом линии волюнтаристского характера. Это было просто решение показаться Западу с лучшей стороны. То есть никто за уши СССР не тащил, сами решили уничтожить, инициативно, и я считаю, что это было крайне необоснованно. Нельзя ничего уничтожать в одностороннем порядке, не получив твердой гарантии от противоположной стороны об уничтожении аналогичных систем или чего-то другого в порядке компромисса, баланса интересов и так далее. Нельзя допускать никаких односторонних инициатив в сфере сокращения вооружений.

— А в СССР и США были противники такого соглашения?

— Поскольку переговоры носили закрытый характер, я думаю, выяснить это возможно, только если покопаться в архивах, которые, наверное, до сих пор остаются закрытыми. Но я думаю, что кто-то возражал в военно-политическом руководстве СССР. В частности, и по значительному перевесу в количестве наших уничтоженных ракет, да и по оперативно-тактической ракете «Ока» наверняка были возражения. Но, как мы хорошо знаем, тогдашний руководитель Советского Союза Михаил Горбачев просто продавливал решения, пользуясь своим высшим государственным и партийным положением.

— А после подписания договора, когда о нем было официально объявлено, какие выносились экспертные оценки?

— Только позитивные. В том числе и ваш покорный слуга опубликовал в газете «Правда» статью о том, что этот договор является свидетельством баланса интересов сторон, баланса компромиссов, поскольку в случае применения ядерного оружия только обозначенных двух классов с одной и другой стороны человечеству был бы нанесен огромный ущерб, а не только СССР и Соединенным Штатам. Эта статья есть в моей книге, которая вышла специально к 30-летию подписания договора в декабре 2017-го на русском, а месяц спустя — на английском языке (статья называется «Баланс интересов». Газета «Правда». 22 декабря 1987 года).

— И как вы считаете, оправдались те суждения, которые выносились тогда?

— Договор был нужный, и правильно, что он был подписан. Но он был подписан с худшими показателями для Советского Союза, чем для США, поэтому он в меньшей степени отвечал интересам нашей безопасности. То есть американцы нас переиграли.

Про количество уничтоженных ракет мы уже говорили. Но за рамками этого акта осталось тактическое ядерное оружие США, в основном в Европе. И оно остается на европейском континенте до сих пор — почти 70 лет. Мы могли потребовать включить в договор 1987 года и его, но не сделали этого. Американцы с большой благодарностью пожали нам руки за односторонние уступки и сказали, что мы молодцы! Почему мы не потребовали чего-то вполне нормального в обмен — какой-то компенсации, каких-то балансов? Вот это остается для меня загадкой. Этот негативный для нас опыт должен стать предупреждением при ведении любых новых переговоров.

Могу предположить, что Горбачев, который активно продавливал свою идею о создании безъядерного мира, видимо, считал, что ядерного оружия и так останется достаточно, то есть ядерный щит СССР будет сохранен. Ключевую роль здесь, очевидно, сыграл субъективизм, волюнтаристский подход.

— Может, это было вызвано какими-то недостатками аналитики?

— Это сейчас в нашей стране эксперты и гражданские лица, которые не участвуют в переговорном процессе, могут как-то отслеживать ведение переговоров, какие заявления делаются. А в те добрые времена такого счастья ни у кого из советских гражданских экспертов не было. Это было табу, тайна за семью печатями, за семью замками, и поэтому академическое сообщество СССР не имело возможности как-то критиковать или высказывать свое экспертное мнение. Гражданские эксперты, не участвовавшие в переговорах, не владели ситуацией.

— А в Европе стало безопаснее после подписания этого соглашения?

— Конечно. Во-первых, было заметно, что прекратились антиядерные движения, которые в 1970-1980 годы, до подписания ДРСМД, носили массовый, широкий характер. Люди вздохнули с облегчением после того, как их города перестали находиться под прицелом этих ракетных систем. Соответственно, и у нас в Советском Союзе был вздох облегчения.

Но практика показала, что американцы либо не полностью уничтожили свой ракетно-ядерный арсенал средней и меньшей дальности, либо использовали компоненты этих ракет (ядерные боезаряды, конечно, использовали, потому что договор не запрещал использовать их по своему усмотрению, без уничтожения). Но у меня есть подозрение, что они сохранили и корпуса ракет, то есть не взрывали их, как мы, с большой радостью и помпой. Либо они на базе существующих технологий создали шесть типов ракет средней и меньшей дальности, абсолютно новых, которые потом уже, после завершения всех инспекций, всех реляций об уничтожении ракет средней и меньшей дальности, вдруг появились в арсенале Пентагона, который использовал их для проверки эффективности системы противоракетной обороны. То есть в качестве перехватываемых ракет-мишеней средней и меньшей дальности.

— То есть вы предполагаете, что американцы с самого начала, извиняюсь, мухлевали?

— Да. Предполагаю, что именно так и было. Ну и, я думаю, вам будет интересно узнать, каков окончательный счет по нарушениям договора между США и Российской Федерацией по состоянию на 2 августа 2019 года, то есть тогда, когда договор прекратил свое действие по инициативе Вашингтона.

— И каков же итоговый счет?

— Хотите верьте, хотите нет, как говорил герой фильма «Полосатый рейс» в исполнении Евгения Леонова, соотношение следующее: с октября 1999 года по 2 августа 2019-го, то есть за последние 20 лет, Соединенные Штаты провели 108 испытаний системы противоракетной обороны (ПРО), когда в качестве учебных перехватываемых ракет-мишеней были использованы ракеты средней и меньшей дальности. В общей сложности за этот период времени они применили 117 таких ракет, то есть допустили 117 нарушений ДРСМД.

Почему 108 и 117? Дело в том, что иногда, особенно в последние годы, были случаи, когда американцы производили залповый запуск учебных ракет средней и меньшей дальности с целью их перехвата системой ПРО. Максимальное количество запущенных ракет за один залп, которое я видел в американских источниках, было по четыре-пять штук. И баллистических, и крылатых ракет (я повторяю, в качестве учебных, естественно, без ядерных боезарядов).

Поэтому Управление по противоракетной обороне США (а это штатная структура Пентагона, которая отвечает за создание и испытания системы ПРО) каждый раз, когда проводило такие эксперименты, публиковало пресс-релизы, где черным по белому было написано, что, допустим, такого-то числа в районе Тихого океана средствами противоракетной обороны США была перехвачена ракета либо средней, либо меньшей дальности. И поэтому за 20 лет накопилось 117 перехваченных ракет (когда-то успешно, когда-то безуспешно). Это 117 нарушений американцами Договора о ликвидации РСМД. У нас не было нарушений. Мы таких экспериментов не проводили.

А по поводу ракеты, на которую до сих пор ссылаются американцы как на нарушение этого договора нами, то есть ракеты 9М729 (по натовской классификации SSC-8)... Как можно нарушать договор, которого уже не существует? Это раз. И потом, нам все время тычут пальцем, что эта ракета развернута, — это два. Хотя нам не показали, где она развернута и в каком количестве, а это всегда легко определить. До сих пор заводят ту же пластинку: в Лондонской декларации саммита НАТО по-прежнему в нарушении ДРСМД обвиняется Россия, несмотря на все наши разъяснения.

И эту ракету привязывают к нашему предложению о введении моратория на развертывание новых ракет средней и меньшей дальности, которые подпадают под соответствующее определение в ДРСМД. Это российское предложение появилось вскоре после завершения действия договора 1987 года — то есть требуют ее уничтожения. Но эта ракета имеет максимальную дальность стрельбы 480 километров, то есть на 20 километров меньше, чем минимальный начальный предел, от которого идет расчет радиуса действия ракет меньшей дальности. Стало быть, она ни раньше, ни сейчас не покрывается ограничениями уже несуществующего ДРСМД.

— Ведь в адрес американцев еще звучали претензии, что они в короткие сроки могут развернуть комплексы наземного базирования в виде «Томагавков».

— Конечно, могут. В частности, 18 августа этого года, через 16 дней после того, как ДРСМД канул в Лету по их инициативе, они как раз такую ракету испытали, именно крылатую ракету наземного базирования. Они хотят создать мобильно-грунтовую наземную крылатую ракету в ядерном или неядерном снаряжении и развернуть ее как в Европе, так и в Азии — поближе к России, КНР и КНДР. Это главная причина, по которой они разорвали ДРСМД. А не то, что мы там что-то нарушили, — это до сих пор никем не доказано.

— Еще в наш адрес звучали претензии, что ракеты комплексов «Искандер» нарушают договор...

— Нет. Все ракеты комплекса «Искандер-М» имеют дальность менее 500 километров. Они никак не могут подпадать под действие ДРСМД, поскольку в нем [в договоре] в качестве критерия была избрана только дальность стрельбы. Не мощность ядерного боезаряда, не круговое вероятное отклонение от цели — только дальность стрельбы. Поэтому никакие «Искандеры», никакие Р-500 или 9М729 никак не подпадают. Пусть хоть треснут — ничем не докажут.

— Как вы считаете, разрыв соглашения, выход США из ДРСМД — это было неизбежно?

— Да, потому что в 2012 году в Вашингтоне было принято решение о выходе из этого договора в одностороннем порядке. США искали лишь благоприятный предлог или оправдание для мировой общественности и своих союзников по НАТО, чтобы показать, что они выходят из него вынужденно, потому что, мол, Российская Федерация неоднократно его нарушала — и так далее и тому подобное. Но поскольку не доказали, то решили впоследствии сослаться на Китай: мол, Пекин не хочет присоединяться к этому договору. Видите, Россия нарушает, Китай не хочет присоединяться — тогда надо из него выйти. Трамп только так и объяснил.

— А почему, несмотря на взаимные обвинения, соглашение соблюдалось более 30 лет?

— Оно столько соблюдалось потому, что с 2012 года американцы никак не могли доказать, что мы его нарушаем. Никак. Причем поначалу у них была идея другого свойства — они хотели остаться в ДРСМД, но при этом выдвинули три условия: чтобы Россия не создавала новых перспективных межконтинентальных баллистических ракет (МБР), а также оперативно-тактических ракет на комплексах «Искандер». Но они увидели, что мы на это не повелись, потому что за две МБР, которые в таком случае мы должны были уничтожить (то есть «Рубеж» и «Ярс» вообще никак не подпадали под договор 1987 года, а только под договор о сокращении стратегических наступательных вооружений), они обещали нам просто остаться в Договоре о ликвидации РСМД. Иными словами, за дырку от бублика они предлагали нам уничтожить наш бублик — хороший, крепкий такой, с хорошим маком.

— Это же явно неравноценный обмен...

— Конечно. Мы тоже могли бы сказать: знаете, мы хотим выйти из ДРСМД, но так и быть, не выйдем, если вы, американцы, выведете все свое тактическое ядерное оружие из четырех европейских государств и азиатской части Турции. Все что угодно можно было им предложить по такой же схеме.

— Если говорить упрощенно, серьезные люди так не договариваются.

— Конечно, не договариваются. Это выглядит как настоящее надувательство, с какой угодно стороны ни посмотри — с военно-стратегической, с политической, с юридической. Американцы любят такие вещи, у них это практикуется сплошь и рядом. То есть сначала делают все, чтобы накалить обстановку, а потом заявляют: ну, так и быть, мы ничего нарушать и разрывать не будем, но вы уничтожьте первое, второе и третье, что Америку не устраивает.

Точно так же они пытались «продать» Стратегическую оборонную инициативу (СОИ) Рейгана. Она тоже еще не была создана, это были «мультяшки». По словам Рейгана, туда входило шесть видов ударно-космических вооружений. Но они не были созданы. И с целью выманить у нас большие уступки по части ликвидации стратегических наступательных вооружений Рейган сказал: хорошо, так и быть, мы не будем развивать программу СОИ, но вы, пожалуйста, свои тяжелые ракеты уничтожьте. И мы уничтожили очень много тяжелых ракет межконтинентальной дальности.

— Сейчас, если подвести черту, ДРСМД больше нет. К чему, по-вашему, приведет в дальнейшем эта ситуация?

— Скорее всего, этот шаг — только первая ласточка со стороны американцев. Дальше та же судьба ожидает договор СНВ-3, который был подписан в 2010 году. По условиям этого соглашения, в феврале 2021 года его действие должно быть завершено автоматически в том случае, если оно не будет продлено. Но поскольку американцы опять пытаются подвязать к этому договору Китайскую Народную Республику, ее ядерные вооружения, при этом видя, что Пекин категорически против участия в ДРСМД, а сейчас и против участия в ДСНВ, то они найдут способ обосновать выход из договора СНВ-3 после февраля 2021 года «нежеланием» Китая стать его участником. Это первый признак, что так может произойти.

А вторая, закулисная причина того, что американцы могут выйти из Пражского договора 2010 года, заключается в том, что он будет мешать им создавать новые типы ракетно-ядерных вооружений. У них готовится к созданию принципиально новая и качественно эффективная стратегическая ядерная триада, которая, как мы знаем, состоит из трех элементов — МБР, баллистические ракеты подводных лодок (БРПЛ) и стратегические бомбардировщики.

Так вот, она будет полностью заменена. Вместо ПЛАРБ (подводная лодка атомная с ракетами баллистическими — прим. «Ленты.ру») типа «Огайо» будет проект 826 «Колумбия», вместо МБР «Минитмен-III» будет «Минитмен-IV» (пока она официально так не называется, это условное наименование, могут назвать ее и по-другому, сейчас она имеет буквенное обозначение GLSD, или, по-английски, ракета «Стратегического сдерживания наземного базирования») и появится новый тяжелый стратегический бомбардировщик B-21 «Рейдер», который заменит существующие сегодня у американцев типы самолетов — и старый B-52H, и B-2 со временем, и B-1.

Это будет уже принципиально новая стратегическая триада, а не модернизация существующей. Она начнет формироваться с 2026 года и просуществует практически до конца текущего столетия, до 2080-2090 годов. А Пражский договор, СНВ-3, будет им мешать ее создавать.

— А нам-то что выгоднее — заключить новый договор или лучше не надо? Чисто во внешнеполитическом контексте.

— Нам выгодно пока подождать и соблюдать договор СНВ-3 до окончания срока его действия, 5 февраля 2021 года, в полном объеме, требуя того же от американцев. При этом нельзя закрывать глаза на то, что они нарушают этот договор. Мы об этом им уже неоднократно говорили на разных уровнях и предали гласности все их нарушения. Нам этот договор, в принципе, можно продлить, но сделать это автоматически было бы Москве крайне невыгодно, потому что американцы традиционно, давным-давно, еще до этого договора, использовали выборочный способ сокращения стратегических наступательных вооружений СССР, а потом России. То есть, сокращая один вид стратегических вооружений, они по сути дела оставляли за скобками другие виды вооружений, которые связаны между собой. Например, противоракетные системы, тактическое ядерное оружие, ударные космические вооружения и так далее.

Нам нельзя автоматически продлевать СНВ-3 и по той причине, что тогда останутся все тактические ядерные вооружения Соединенных Штатов в четырех европейских государствах (Бельгия, Нидерланды, Италия, ФРГ) и в азиатской части Турции. Кроме того, тактическое ядерное оружие США будет модернизировано. Очень скоро появится новая перспективная высокоточная корректируемая авиабомба B-61-12, которую могут нести на борту как самолеты средней дальности — истребители-бомбардировщики, например, F-35, так и тяжелые стратегические бомбардировщики — и действующие, и перспективные (а они уже стали поступать в ВВС ряда европейских стран НАТО), и тот же B-21 «Рейдер».

Далее. Как можно продлевать договор СНВ-3 еще на пять лет, если он очевидно будет заставлять нас либо ликвидировать действующие и эффективные ракеты межконтинентальной дальности морского и наземного базирования прежних разработок, которые еще могут послужить некоторое время, либо находиться в условиях, когда это соглашение будет обрезать наши попытки создать какие-то новые системы этого класса взамен устаревающих. Дело в том, что договором СНВ-3, напомню, установлены следующие потолки для сторон: 1550 стратегических ядерных боезарядов и 800 носителей, как оперативно развернутых, так и оперативно неразвернутых. А если договор прекратит в феврале 2021 года свое существование, мы будем свободны определять, что нам иметь и в каком количестве — и по боезарядам, и по носителям СНВ, а также новейшие перспективные высокоточные системы, которые Вашингтон пытается необоснованно привязать к ДСНВ. При его продлении мы будем слишком жестко связаны этими двумя ограничительными показателями вплоть до 2026 года.

Но в случае непродления договора нам действительно прекратят указывать на новые перспективные системы. Сейчас американцы пытаются только за сохранение своего участия в договоре СНВ-3 потребовать от нас, чтобы мы уничтожили и «Авангард», и «Буревестник», и «Посейдон», и «Кинжал» — в общем, все то, о чем наш президент в прошлом году открытым текстом объявил в послании Федеральному собранию. Как исключение, они пока никак не могут подобраться к боевому лазеру «Пересвет», поскольку его никак не подошьешь к договору СНВ-3 — это совсем другой вид вооружений.

Кстати, насчет «Авангарда». Нужно иметь в виду следующее. В договоре СНВ-3 никакие «Авангарды» не упоминаются. Там даже нет словосочетания «боевые блоки». Это специфический вид оружия — планирующий крылатый боевой блок (глайдер), который не летит по баллистической траектории. А договор СНВ-3 касается только боезарядов и ракет, которые летят по баллистической траектории. В этом соглашении черным по белому написано про три вида стратегических вооружений в составе ядерной триады, их носители и ядерные боезаряды. Там даже про простые боевые блоки нет ничего вообще.

Поэтому «Авангард» не входит в сокращаемые виды вооружений, равно как «Кинжал», «Буревестник» и «Посейдон». А вот МБР «Сармат» может подпадать под определения договора СНВ-3, но только в том случае, если будет создана полностью. Но до того, когда она пройдет бросковые и иные испытания, она не может считаться ракетой стратегического назначения существующего типа.

Здесь американцы пытаются нас обмануть, и с ними вообще никаких переговоров на тему новых видов вооружений вести не стоит. Ни за какие, как говорят, коврижки.

Можно, в принципе, пойти и по пути, который изобрели они: сначала заявлять, что мы вообще не будем его продлевать, а потом с глубокомысленным видом сказать: так и быть, мы останемся в этом договоре, но вы, пожалуйста, уничтожьте свое гиперзвуковое оружие, три вида которого у вас создается, подпишите международный договор о предотвращении размещения оружия в космосе, уберите из Европы свое тактическое ядерное оружие и систему противоракетной обороны и не посылайте свои корабли с системой ПРО в Баренцево, Балтийское, Черное моря, поближе к нашим берегам.

Когда мы постоянно говорим о том, что мы готовы «спасти» сначала ДРСМД, а теперь ДСНВ-3, то это вызывает у американской стороны жажду продать свое возможное участие в продленном договоре СНВ-3 за счет наших перспективных систем вооружений, за счет слишком больших уступок с нашей стороны. Нельзя этого делать! Нельзя никогда заранее перед серьезными переговорами раскрывать перед контрагентами свои карты. Кстати, надо заметить: президент Трамп обещал объявить о позиции Белого дома относительно судьбы ДСНВ-3 только в 2020 году. И нам надо прекратить до этого времени демонстрировать заинтересованность в продлении этого договора.

Здесь можно провести аналогию с газовой проблемой на Украине. Не получив абсолютно никаких шагов навстречу от Киева по поводу поставок российского газа, мы уже заранее объявили о 25-процентном сокращении его стоимости и готовы продлить контракт. Зачем? Этого не нужно делать. Тем более когда нас постоянно таскают по разного рода арбитражным судам, требуют с нас денег, хотя сами воровали наш природный газ, когда занимаются сутяжничеством и открытым шантажом. Точно так же нельзя заранее идти на уступки в такой чувствительной сфере, как ядерные вооружения. Сталин однажды дал указание министру иностранных дел Молотову: «Требуйте больше, а там посмотрим». Иными словами, нам нельзя заранее демонстрировать свою переговорную слабину.

Кстати, тактическое ядерное оружие, о котором я уже упоминал, давно уже создало «Карибский кризис номер два», только теперь — применительно к России. С марта 2004 года США, Великобритания и Франция участвуют в операции «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» (Baltic Air Policing). В ней участвуют 15 государств-членов НАТО, то есть более половины от списочного состава. Там есть самолеты, которые могут нести на борту не только обычные вооружения, но и ядерные авиабомбы. Эта операция проводится в небе Литвы, Латвии и Эстонии, то есть совсем близко от Санкт-Петербурга, Белоруссии и Калининградской области, что создает очень серьезную угрозу для России. Эта операция НАТО должна быть полностью прекращена.

Еще при продлении (или непродлении) договора СНВ-3 важно учитывать, что в мае 2012 года в НАТО было принято решение о создании так называемой чикагской триады — оперативного объединения ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных видов вооружений в единый оперативно действующий механизм. На всех последующих саммитах альянса эта формулировка неизменно повторялась. Ее упомянул в итоговой декларации и состоявшийся в начале декабря в Лондоне очередной саммит НАТО.

Беседовал Игорь Дмитров, Источник: Лента.ру

В. Козин: Это неслучайно

 Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ объяснил недоверие к НАТО в странах альянса

Уровень одобрения деятельности НАТО в США за год снизился на 12 процентных пунктов, сообщило РБК со ссылкой на отчет Исследовательского центра Пью в Вашингтоне.

По данным исследования, 52% опрошенных в 2019 году американцев одобрительно отозвались о НАТО, в то время как годом ранее этот показатель составлял 64%.

Снижение одобрения зафиксировано и в других странах. Во Франции в 2019 году о НАТО положительно высказались 49% респондентов, в 2017 году – 60%. В Германии с 2017 по 2019 год уровень одобрения к НАТО снизился с 67% до 57% соответственно. Самый низкий рейтинг одобрения эффективности Альянса увидели в Турции – 21%, самый высокий – в Польше (82%).

В целом 53% респондентов, опрошенных в 16 странах-членах НАТО, положительно характеризуют альянс, отрицательно – 27%.

Профессор Академии военных наук, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik прокомментировал итоги исследования.

"Эта тенденция говорит о том, что НАТО действительно все менее популярно в странах ‒ членах альянса, и это не случайно. Первая причина ‒ НАТО очень много тратит денег на военные цели. Все 29 государств ‒ членов альянса выделяют на это просто баснословные суммы вместо того, чтобы потратить эти деньги более рационально. Вторая причина заключается в том, что НАТО очень часто вмешивается во внутренние дела других государств, пытается там влиять на формирование органов власти, чтобы те имели более пронатовский крен", ‒ считает Владимир Козин.

По его мнению, есть и другие причины недовольства граждан стран ‒ членов альянса деятельностью НАТО.

"Третья причина ‒ в том, что НАТО проводит слишком много военных операций в других государствах ‒ за примерами далеко ходить не нужно... Четвертый момент ‒ НАТО слишком увлеклось распространением своей военной машины не только на суше, морях и океанах, а также в воздухе, вслед за США альянс намеревается распространить свое действие и на космическое пространство. И последнее, о чем я упомянул бы ‒ в государствах НАТО откровенно культивируется неприязнь к другим народам, которые не входят в этот военный союз, это тоже не может не беспокоить рядовых граждан государств ‒ членов альянса", ‒ полагает Владимир Козин.

Источник: Sputnik

В. Козин: Это позор для любой армии, которая воюет со своими гражданами

Военный эксперт рассказал, зачем ВСУ бьют по критической инфраструктуре ДНР

Целенаправленные удары Вооружённых сил Украины по объектам критической инфраструктуры ДНР и обстрелы в целом освобождённых территорий являются позором. Таким образом киевский режим хочет заставить местных жителей поверить, что скоро одержит победу над Россией, предположил в беседе с Лайфом член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин.

"Это позор для любой армии, которая воюет со своими гражданами. Это позор, когда вообще воюют с гражданским населением безоружным, которое ничего плохого ВСУ не сделало. Это просто позор, когда обстреливают АЭС, в частности в Запорожье", — сказал он.

По словам эксперта, такие действия вызывают возмущение у всех нормальных людей. Воевать, продолжил он, нужно с противоположной стороной. Убивать мирных людей и подвергать их жизнь опасности запрещено гуманитарным правом. Но в первую очередь украинские военные наносят удары по объектам критической инфраструктуры ДНР для того, чтобы посеять панику среди гражданского населения. Это подтверждает частота обстрелов ВСУ и расширение масштабов. Также военные Украины пытаются заставить мирных жителей Донбасса и других территорий поверить в сказку, что уже совсем скоро ВСУ одержат победу над Россией. А третья причина таких действий киевского режима — создать невыносимую жизнь, оставив гражданских без воды, газа и электричества, особенно в зимний период.

Ранее Денис Пушилин заявил о целенаправленных ударах ВСУ по критической инфраструктуре ДНР. По его словам, из-за обстрелов украинских военных обесточиваются шахты, в связи с чем приходится постоянно проводить аварийно-спасательные эвакуации горняков.

Источник: Life

 

В. Козин: Это полный непрофессионализм!

Удивительно, что представители Латвии и Литвы не знают элементарных вещей, связанных с Договором о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, отметил военный эксперт Владимир Козин

Министр иностранных дел Латвии Эдгарс Ринкевичс и его литовский коллега Линас Линкявичюс заявили, что российская сторона ответственна за прекращение Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД). По мнению Ринкевичса, РФ "неоднократно нарушала положения договора в прошлом" и, как отметил Линкявичюс, "не воспользовалась данным ей сроком, чтобы снова в полном объеме и с возможностью проверок выполнять ДРСМД".

Заявления обоих министров свидетельствуют об их непрофессионализме, заявил в интервью Sputnik Латвия член научного совета Национального института исследований глобальной безопасности, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России Владимир Козин.

"Это полный непрофессионализм. Мало того, что ни Латвия, ни Литва не были участниками этого договора, так они еще и забывают, что именно США в феврале заявили о приостановке участия и дальнейшем полном выходе из договора", - сказал Козин.

Эксперт напомнил, что США давно уже нарушили ДРСМД "в практическом плане".

"Это произошло в октябре 1999 года, с началом испытаний ракет средней и меньшей дальности в качестве учебных в ходе проверки эффективности системы ПРО. Это зафиксировано сразу двумя официальными органами США - управлением по противоракетной обороне Пентагона и исследовательской службой конгресса США - с указанием типа перехваченной ракеты: меньшей или средней дальности. Латвия и Литва, как члены НАТО, не могут этого не знать. Удивительно, что их представители не знают элементарных вещей, связанных с договором", - подчеркнул Козин.

По словам эксперта, США с 1999 года "накопили" 117 нарушений ракетного договора, в то время как у России их ноль.

>>аудиофайл<<

ДРСМД 2 августа прекратил свое действие по инициативе американской стороны. В декабре прошлого года Вашингтон дал Москве 60 дней, чтобы "вернуться к выполнению" договора. В феврале США заявили об одностороннем выходе из ДРСМД якобы из-за нарушений со стороны России, не предоставив никаких доказательств этих самых нарушений.

Москва неоднократно заявляла, что строго соблюдает свои обязательства по договору, и называла все обвинения в нарушении ДРСМД голословными. Глава МИД РФ Сергей Лавров пояснил, что ракета 9М729, которая вызывает у Вашингтона подозрения, испытывалась на разрешенную договором дальность. Дипломат подчеркнул, что у Москвы, в свою очередь, есть серьезные вопросы к США по поводу выполнения ракетного договора самими американцами.

Президент РФ Владимир Путин в июле подписал закон о приостановлении договора.

Источник:  Sputnik-Латвия

 

В. Козин: взятие Дейр-эз-Зора – важный шаг к полному освобождению Сирии

СМИ сообщили о почти полном освобождении сирийского города Дейр-эз-Зор от террористов. Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik оценил значимость этого достижения.

Сирийская армия в результате масштабного наступления практически завершила освобождение города Дейр-эз-Зор. Об этом сообщает ливанский портал Al-Masdar.

Отряды элитного подразделения "Тигры" и четвертой механизированной дивизии после освобождения района Аль-Хамидия продолжили наступление в районе Шейх Ясин. Вскоре после начала атаки сирийской армии удалось пробить оборону ИГ и захватить район.

Кроме того, армейские подразделения заняли кварталы Аль-Бажн, Абу-Адед, а также большую часть районов Аль-Рашидия и Аль-Арди, где местами ИГ продолжает сопротивление. Сейчас сирийская армия контролирует около 97% Дейр-эз-Зора.

Передовые отряды сирийской армии 5 сентября прорвали трехлетнюю блокаду Дейр-эз-Зора и перешли в наступление на восточных окраинах города. Прорвав окружение базы ВВС, а после выбив террористов со стратегических высот на юго-западе, правительственные войска вышли к западному берегу реки Евфрат и форсировали ее, тем самым вытеснив отряды террористов в направлении иракской границы и создав кольцо вокруг захваченных террористической группировкой "Исламское государство" жилых кварталов Дейр-эз-Зора.

Профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik отметил стратегическую важность этого успеха сирийской армии.

"Надо поздравить сирийские вооруженные силы с освобождением этого очень важного пункта. Это, по сути, вторая "столица", военная "столица" террористических группировок, которые окопались в Сирии. И с ее переходом в руки законно избранного правительства наступает заключительная фаза изгнания и уничтожения оставшихся террористических группировок. Судя по картам боевых действий, остается в сторону Ирака небольшая территория, которая уже не имеет мощных оборонительных сооружений. Поэтому это очень важный шаг на пути к полному освобождению Сирии от различных военизированных группировок, которые так долго терзали страну, убивали сирийских граждан при полной моральной, военно-технической и финансовой поддержке ведущих стран Запада во главе США", – сказал Владимир Козин.

Источник: Sputnik

В. Козин: за последние годы НАТО увеличила вдвое количество учений у границ РФ

В воздушном пространстве стран Балтии проходят трехдневные учения военно-воздушных сил НАТО Ramstein Alloy 5, сообщает Минобороны Латвии

Эксперт: за последние годы НАТО увеличило вдвое количество военных учений у границ РФ

В интервью Sputnik профессор академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин отметил, что впервые в таких учениях будут задействованы тяжелые стратегические бомбардировщики американских ВВС, в частности B-52H и B-1B.

"Это носители ядерных вооружений, и мы не знаем, несут ли они на борту во время этих учений какие-то макеты ракет или авиабомб или реальные боезаряды. Натовцы уже давно взяли курс, чтобы бряцать оружием около территории России и проверять ее оборону", — сказал Козин.

Маневры в воздушном пространстве проводит объединенное командование ВВС НАТО в сотрудничестве с Национальными вооруженными силами Латвии.

Источник: Радио SPUTNIK Латвия

 

 

 

В. Козин: миссия НАТО по охране Балтии изначально носила боевой характер

Полицейские операции могут выполнять полицейские вертолеты, а не боевые самолеты альянса, которые как раз являются воздушными суднами двойного назначения

Глава МИД Литвы Линас Линкявичюс отметил, что республике не требуется специальная подготовка при изменении мандата патруля НАТО с полицейского на боевой. Он также подчеркнул, что альянс не имеет дополнительных требований к этим мерам, а необходимые условия будут обеспечены так же, как и в настоящее время.

В интервью Sputnik Литва профессор Академии военных наук Владимир Козин рассказал, что данные об изменении характера миссии НАТО в Прибалтике могли появиться из-за неправильного перевода, так как операция стала боевой еще с весны 2004 года.

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"Дело в том, что переводчики переводят ее английское название Baltic Air Policing, вот слово policing, как "полицейская операция". Не могут самолеты боевого назначения с ядерным ракетным оружием выполнять какие-то полицейские операции. Полицейские операции могут выполнять полицейские вертолеты, которые следят за трафиком, за движением, еще за какими-то инцидентами, но боевые самолеты НАТО среди этой группировки трех ядерных стран НАТО, четыре типа самолетов, как раз являются самолетами двойного назначения. С самого начала эта операция носила, носит и будет носить сугубо боевой наступательный характер, и центром, как говорят, применения таких сил является Республика Беларусь и Российская Федерация", — отметил Козин.

Источник: Sputnik Литва

 

В. Козин: на учениях в Эстонии отрабатывали наступательные операции против РФ

Балтийские республики не только сами активно участвуют в маневрах НАТО, но и привлекают к ним других стран – участниц блока.

В Эстонии завершились военные учения НАТО "Весенний шторм". Они продолжались с 29 апреля по 17 мая, в них принимали участие более девяти тысяч военнослужащих из 17 государств.

Как отметил командующий Силами обороны Эстонии Мартин Херем, за время учений не произошло ни одного несчастного случая, а военнослужащие многому научились. Его слова приводит пресс-служба оборонного ведомства.

В интервью Sputnik Литва профессор Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин заявил, что все учения на территории балтийских республик носят агрессивный и наступательный характер.

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"Там нет никаких оборонительных операций, но наступательные — конечно, Эстония не против Латвии, Литвы и наоборот, а против РФ. Все эти государства активно участвуют в подобных учениях как государства, ставшие полноправными членами Североатлантического союза уже давно, и привлекают к учениям на своей территории не только собственные контингенты ВС, но и других государств – членов НАТО", — заключил эксперт.

Источник: РИА Новости

В. Козин: ситуация в Прибалтике попахивает Карибским кризисом

Чем угрожает жителям Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии патрулирование балтийского неба самолетами НАТО.

В миссии патрулирования балтийского неба участвуют самолеты трех ядерных государств НАТО — Великобритании, США и Франции. Профессор Академии военных наук Владимир Козин объяснил Sputnik Латвия, чем опасно балтийское воздушное патрулирование.

"Это самолеты двойного назначения, которые могут нести на борту не только обычные виды вооружения, но и ядерное оружие в виде тактических авиабомб", — сказал эксперт.

По его словам, ситуация напоминает Карибский кризис 1962 года — но уже в другой части Земли.

"Необходимо полностью прекратить патрулирование воздушного пространства стран Балтии боевыми самолетами стран НАТО", — уверен Козин.

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Ни одна из стран Балтии не располагает самолетами, пригодными для патрулирования воздушного пространства. С апреля 2004 года — момента вступления государств в НАТО — охраной балтийского неба занимаются в порядке ротации самолеты стран альянса. На саммите НАТО в Чикаго в 2012 году миссию продлили на неопределенный срок.

Источник: Sputnik Латвия

 

В. Козин: учения НАТО - подготовка театра будущих военных действий

В Риге стартовали учения Baltic Host 2017 с участием подразделений НАТО, сценарий маневров — эскалация кризиса в Балтийском регионе.

В интервью Sputnik Латвия профессор академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин отметил, что в Европе практически непрерывно происходят учения НАТО.

"Такие военные учения и маневры на территории стран Восточной Европы, государств Балтии, Центральной и Южной Европы практически не прекращаются. Если их насчитывается до трехсот учений в год, значит, каждую неделю в какой-то стране они проводятся", — сказал Козин.

Источник: Sputnik Латвия 



 

В. Козин: “Агрессию” России на Западе и в Киеве ожидают уже восемь лет

Истерика о "российском вторжении" на Украину: кто и зачем ее нагнетает

России активно приписывают планы по вторжению на Украину 16 числа. Чего стоит ожидать после этой даты на самом деле, рассказал политолог Владимир Козин.

Британские таблоиды Sun и Mirror со ссылкой на данные американской разведки заявляют, что, несмотря на заявления Минобороны России об отводе войск после учений, "вторжение на Украину" якобы запланировано на три часа ночи 16 февраля по местному времени. Авторы ссылаются на источники в американских разведслужбах.

"Российским вторжением" также пугал DEBKAfile, израильский интернет-сайт, специализирующийся в области военной разведки, за которым, по слухам, стоят МОССАД и ЦРУ. На него ссылаются американские мейнстримные СМИ.

"Россия начнет вторжение в Украину в среду, 16 февраля, согласно сообщению, перехваченному ЦРУ от высшего командования в Москве командующим российских войск, сосредоточенных на границе с Украиной", – говорится в сообщении.

Ранее президент США Джо Байден на видеоконференции с лидерами западных стран, Евросоюза и НАТО назвал датой "вторжения" России на Украину 16 февраля, писала газета Politico со ссылкой на информированные источники.

Чего на самом деле следует ожидать в эту дату или после нее, Baltnews рассказал член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин.

"Что касается агрессии России, то эту агрессию на Западе и в Киеве ожидают восемь лет – с момента государственного переворота в Киеве, который произошел в феврале 2014 года, – заметил Козин. – Но вообще-то у нас ожидали и по-прежнему ожидают агрессии киевского режима против Донбасса. У границы с ЛНР и ДНР сосредоточена 150-тысячная группировка вооруженных сил Украины, не считая разного рода наемников, ЧВК и так далее".

Эксперт напомнил, что в 2014 и 2015 годах киевский режим уже предпринимал попытки вооруженной агрессии против Донбасса и потерпел сокрушительное поражение.

"Поэтому надо говорить не об агрессии Российской Федерации в отношении Украины, а об остающейся угрозе военного вторжения Киева на Донбасс", – полагает он.

Козин напомнил, что во вторник Госдума РФ проголосовала за обращение к президенту РФ о необходимости признания самопровозглашенных ДНР и ЛНР.

В свете новой ситуации по голосованию о признании ДНР и ЛНР такое вторжение [на территорию Донбасса] может оказаться невостребованным со стороны Киева. Признание ДНР и ЛНР Российской Федерацией означает, что в случае развязывания масштабной агрессии Киева против двух республик Донбасса он будет иметь дело не только с ними, но и с Российской Федерацией напрямую.

Эксперт полагает, что западные спецслужбы, а также СМИ и политики своими заявлениями о "российской агрессии" стараются отвести внимание мировой общественности от готовности Киева в очередной раз совершить масштабную вооруженную агрессию против Донбасса.

На вопрос, следует ли ожидать провокаций со стороны Украины или НАТО 16 или 22 числа (такую дату тоже называют некоторые источники), политолог считает, что такой риск нельзя исключать.

"Конечно, зная определенные ужимки и прыжки НАТО, США и их ближайших союзников по альянсу и зная такие зловещие планы Киева в отношении Донбасса, конечно, можно ожидать разного рода провокации, и, может быть, не только провокации, но и обстрелы территорий двух республик Донбасса".

После голосования в Думе, однако, любые попытки Киева вооруженным путем уничтожить гражданское население Донбасса будет воспринято в России как нападение на территорию РФ, отметил Козин: "Ответ Киев получит по полной программе, никакие натовские союзники ему не помогут".

Эксперт заметил, что США и другие страны Североатлантического союза, в том числе страны Балтии и Польша, поставляют Киеву летальное оружие. Последний уже неоднократно нарушил Минские мирные соглашения на уровне как заявлений, так и действий. Кроме того, ВСУ регулярно нарушают режим прекращения огня, что подтверждают представители ОБСЕ.

Отметим, что Москва не раз отвергала обвинения в подготовке "вторжения", заявляя, что никому не угрожает и ни на кого не собирается нападать, а заявления об "агрессии РФ" используются как предлог, чтобы разместить больше военной техники НАТО вблизи российских границ.

В МИД РФ ранее отмечали, что заявления Запада о "российской агрессии" и возможности помочь Киеву защититься от нее – это и смешно, и опасно. Пресс-секретарь президента РФ Дмитрий Песков заявлял, что Россия перемещает войска в пределах своей территории и на свое усмотрение. По его словам, это никому не угрожает и никого не должно волновать.

Источник: Baltnews

В. Козин:Очень хорошо, что натовцы очнулись от летаргического сна

 

Североатлантический альянс, по мнению члена научного совета Национального института исследований глобальной безопасности, ведущего эксперта Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России Владимира Козина, действительно находится в глубоком кризисе.

"НАТО слишком часто участвует в таких конфликтных ситуациях, где им [странам-участницам] вообще делать нечего. Конкретный пример – Афганистан, последний пример – Сирия, также Ирак. Более того, в НАТО серьезный кризис в связи с тем, что там доминируют практически постоянно с момента создания трансатлантического союза только США. Это не нравится европейцам, которых они, американцы, постоянно втягивают в свои военные авантюры, в огромные военные расходы", – сказал он.

По словам Козина, в последнее время желание европейцев отпочковаться от диктата США становится все сильнее, и сейчас Европа уже сделала многое для создания своей армии — уже созданы политические, разведывательные структуры, структуры управления, сколачивается военно-промышленный комплекс.

"Очень хорошо, что натовцы очнулись от летаргического сна, в котором НАТО представлялся как единый монолитный союз, который все время действовал правильно, и начали критически сами себя оценивать. Это здравый смысл. В этом их можно только поприветствовать. Никогда не поздно самосовершенствоваться. Это даже полезно", — заключил эксперт.

Козин отметил, что Вашингтон никогда не позволял ЕС создавать собственные вооруженные силы. И хотя эта идея в Европе циркулирует уже давно, США всячески этому препятствуют.

Как писал Sputnik, глава МВД Март Хельме в интервью финской газете Iltalehti заявил, что НАТО пребывает в кризисе, поэтому страны Балтии готовят "план Б" на случай, если альянс больше не сможет их защищать. По мнению министра, в условиях кризиса, который неизвестно чем закончится, Эстонии следует постараться, чтобы развивать партнерские отношения "с определенными государствами". Хельме также отметил, что Финляндия играет в этом "плане Б" не последнюю роль.

Высказывания министра относительно разработки некоего "плана Б" в тот же вечер опровергли его коллеги по правительству — в частности, премьер-министр Эстонии Юри Ратас, министр обороны Юри Луйк и глава МИД Урмас Рейнсалу.

Ратас, например, дал понять, что оснований сомневаться в способности НАТО защитить Эстонию нет, поскольку в отношениях между странами альянса превалирует реальное сотрудничество.

Позднее Хельме заявил, что финский журналист неправильно его понял. "Я не говорил, что наше правительство работает с соседними странами, чтобы найти альтернативу НАТО. НАТО является и останется самой важной гарантией нашей безопасности", — заявил он.

Источник: Sputnik

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

В.Козин: Безопасность группы государств не должна укрепляться за счет ослабления безопасности других

Генсек НАТО Йенс Столтенберг объясняет расширение НАТО на восток необходимостью сдерживания России и ответа на ее якобы агрессивные действия. Однако член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ (РАВН), член-корреспондент Российской Академии естественных наук (РАЕН) Владимир Козин полагает, что это надуманная причина расширения альянса.

"Россия не имеет территориальных претензий к сопредельным государствам и не собирается на них нападать. Россия не проводит таких военных учений и маневров, которые свидетельствуют о ее подготовке к каким-то военным действиям против зарубежных государств", – отметил он.

"Наоборот, мы выступаем за то, чтобы в частности европейская безопасность строилась на базе нового "уравнения безопасности", – подчеркнул эксперт.

По его словам, Россия исходит из того, что безопасность должна быть равной для всех, независимо от того, входит страна в какой-то военный союз или нет.

"При этом безопасность одного государства или одной группы государств не должна укрепляться за счет ослабления безопасности других групп государств или другого государства", – указал Козин.

Он считает, что цель расширения НАТО заключается в создании вокруг РФ со всех возможных направлений, в особенности с европейского континента, зоны нестабильности:

"То есть создать группу государств, которые имеют антироссийские намерения, придерживаются русофобской политики, которые позволят на своей территории после вступления в НАТО разместить крупные военные базы и различные виды вооружений ведущих стран-членов НАТО, которые являются в этом трансатлантическом альянсе главными игроками".

"Вторая причина – через такое постоянное военно-политическое давление вызвать недовольство среди граждан РФ, чтобы они сами или наше российское государство было более сговорчивым, согласилось разоружиться, согласилось продавать энергоресурсы за копейки другим государствам и так далее", – заключил Козин.

Напомним, США и РФ провели 10 января консультации по вопросам безопасности в Женеве, 12 января в Брюсселе состоялось заседание Совета Россия – НАТО, а 13 января – совещание Постоянного совета ОБСЕ в Вене.

В конце 2021 года Россия опубликовала проекты договора с США и соглашения с НАТО по гарантиям безопасности. Москва, в частности, требует от западных партнеров юридических гарантий отказа от дальнейшего расширения НАТО на восток, от присоединения к блоку Украины и от создания военных баз в постсоветских странах.

18 января Лавров в ходе телефонного разговора с госсекретарем США Энтони Блинкеном заявил об императивности скорейшего предоставления Вашингтоном комментариев "на бумаге" на предложения Москвы по гарантиям безопасности, о чем сообщили в российском дипведомстве.

Источник: Baltnews

В.Козин: Беспилотник MQ-9 Reaper надо достать со дна раньше американцев

Военные эксперты считают причиной падения американского беспилотника MQ-9 Reaper в Черном море ошибку оператора дрона, который не смог справиться с его управлением, уводя от сопровождавших его истребителей российские ВКС.

Европейское командование ВС США заявило, что российский Су-27 задел винт американского беспилотника MQ-9 Reaper над Черным морем, после чего дрон упал в международные воды. В российском МО сообщили, что в связи с обнаружением дрона в воздух были подняты российские истребители. В результате резкого маневрирования беспилотник США перешел в неуправляемый полет с потерей высоты и столкнулся с водной поверхностью, говорится в заявлении МО России.

Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ (РАВН) Владимир Козин считает, что американцы опять хотят ввести в заблуждение мировую общественность, заявляя, что причиной падения разведывательного беспилотника является атака российского истребителя. По его словам, конструктивные особенности MQ-9 Reaper сами опровергают версию американцев.

«Опять вранье, непрофессионализм полный с американской стороны. Они как будто вчера родились, ничего не знают, ничего не понимают. Как можно сбить этот дрон, если один единственный винт у него находится в задней части фюзеляжа, а буквально за этим винтом следуют два горизонтальных руля и один вертикальный? Это значит сбить его целиком и уничтожить свой собственный самолет», — пояснил Владимир Козин.

По его мнению, американские военные сами уничтожили свой беспилотник, опасаясь, как бы он не стал добычей Министерства обороны РФ, видя, что к нему приближается Су-27. И чтобы скрыть мотивы своих действий, придумали версию с обвинениями в адрес РФ.

«У американских стратегических дронов подобного класса есть режим самоликвидации, если они увидят какую-то воздушную цель или приближающуюся ракету. Они оценивают обстановку вокруг себя обязательно, потому что вещь очень чувствительная, как говорят, разведчики, секретная, особой важности», — пояснил Владимир Козин.

Эксперт не сомневается, что российский самолет не предпринимал никаких действий по уничтожению дрона, потому что не видит в этом целесообразности. По его мнению, подобная цель может быть интересна нашим военным только как целый экземпляр, чтобы изучить его компоненты. В связи с этим надеется, что МО РФ не упустит возможности достать беспилотник со дна моря, если он не разлетелся вдребезги.

«Адмирал в отставке Керби и Совет национальной безопасности США заявили, что они будут искать его и поднимать. Мы должны достать его раньше, если он лежит на дне не очень глубоко. Это в рамках наших технических возможностей — достать его как можно быстрее и никогда его не отдавать», — заявил Владимир Козин.

Вместе с тем, академик РАВН считает американские военные беспилотники законными целями российских военных, если они входят в воздушное пространство РФ или в зону, которая закрыта для полетов из-за ведущихся военных действий. По его словам, легитимность таких действий предусматривает международное право. Оно разрешает находиться гражданским и военным объектам за внешним пределом территориальных вод другого государства, но как только они входят в воздушное пространство, объявленное другой стороной закрытым, они должны уничтожаться, отметил Владимир Козин.

«Вещь очень опасная, и к ней относиться надо очень серьезно. И неважно, имеет ли дрон какие-то ракеты или авиабомбы на подвеске. Все равно это разведывательное средство и передает необходимую информацию о российских вооруженных силах вооруженным силам Украины», — пояснил он.

Источник: Медиа-группа “Патриот”

 

В.Козин: В районе Балтики намечаются серьезные приготовления военных НАТО

Военное присутствие Североатлантического альянса в Балтии в ближайшее время возрастет, считает ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО

Премьер-министр Эстонии Юри Ратас на встрече с польским коллегой Анджеем Дудой отметил важность договора о расширенном военном присутствии, заключенного между Польшей и США. Об этом сообщает портал ERR.

По мнению Ратаса, это соглашение открывает возможности для усиления военного присутствия США в Польше, а также дает надежду на то, что американское военное присутствие в странах Балтии станет более заметным.

В интервью Sputnik Литва член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин заявил, что в Польше, вблизи Калининградской области, заканчивается строительство операционного комплекса противоракетной обороны, который имеет возможность оперировать крылатыми ракетами наземного базирования, а в перспективе - и гиперзвуковыми ракетами.

"Продолжается операция балтийского воздушного патрулирования в небе Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии, где также задействованы самолеты средней дальности двойного назначения, которые могут нести и обычные, и ядерные виды вооружения в виде авиационных авиабомб. Командно-штабные структуры НАТО давно уже обосновались в названных государствах, поэтому у меня лично нет никакого сомнения, что такое присутствие возрастет", – сказал он, отметив, что это происходит как вблизи Калининградской области, так и у границ Белоруссии, - констатировал Козин.

"Вообще, в целом в районе Балтики... и Балтийского моря, и севера Европы намечается очень серьезная волна военных приготовлений Североатлантического союза, все это проводится инициативно в одностороннем порядке и под надуманными предлогами", – заключил он.

Источник: Sputnik

В.Козин: Даже после выхода из ДРСМД Вашингтон не перестает вводить всех в заблуждение

 

Выступление ведущего эксперта Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО в программе “Открытый эфир” на канале “Звезда”.

Эфир от 9 октября 2019г.

Полную версию программы смотрите на сайте канала.

В.Козин: За двадцать лет США нарушили положения ДРСМД более ста раз

США объявили о том, что они начинают разработку новых ракет средней и меньшей дальности, ранее запрещенных соответствующим договором. В этом есть определенное лукавство. Такие ракеты они разрабатывали и раньше. Эти ракеты использовались с 1999 года в качестве ракет-мишеней на учениях по противоракетной обороне. За это время было создано 5 новых видов ракет. За двадцать лет прошли 108 испытаний. Именно столько раз США нарушили статьи ДРСМД.

Источник: ИА ИнфоРос

В.Козин: За последние 20 лет Вашингтон многократно нарушил ДРСМД

По количеству испытаний 96 раз,  а по количеству использованных при этом ракет-мишеней средней и меньшей дальности, запрещенных этим договором, 117 раз. 
 
Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в гостях у телелеканала «Раша Тудэй» (арабская редакция).
 

В.Козин: На Западе уже давно обсуждается проблема контроля за вооружениями через призму «разрушительных технологий»

США и их сателлиты планируют лишить Россию малейшей возможности ответа на ядерный удар

Новость о том, что американские и натовские дипломаты намереваются вынудить Россию отказаться от использования разработанной еще в годы холодной войны автоматизированной системы применения ядерного оружия «Периметр», известной на Западе как «Мертвая рука», утром 19 октября облетела практически все новостные агентства рунета.

Факт того, что Россия способна даже в случае уничтожения ключевых узлов управления своими ядерными силами управлять массированным ответным атомным ударом, уточнили они, вызывает большую тревогу у всего Североатлантического альянса, и поэтому он намеревается подвести «Периметр» под термин «новые разрушительные технологии», тем самым лишив нашу страну моральной возможности использовать эту систему.

Отправной точкой для подобных сообщений послужила статья члена-корреспондента Академии военных наук России, члена Научного совета Национального института исследований глобальной безопасности Владимира Козина в еженедельнике «Звезда», в которой утверждалось, что Запад, образно выражаясь, спит и видит, как лишить Россию не только ее ядерного, но даже и обычного арсенала.

С этой целью, уточнил эксперт, западные аналитики намеренно замалчивают тот факт, что при создании «Периметра» была исключена возможность нанесения ответного удара в случае ложной тревоги, а окончательное принятие решения о ее срабатывании остается за человеком.

Тем самым они рассчитывают, что распространение фейков про «новые разрушительные технологии» и «дестабилизирующий» вид ядерных вооружений заставит мировую общественность так надавить на руководство РФ, что оно в конечном итоге предпочтет отказаться от этой уникальной системы возмездия.

— Вообще-то на Западе уже довольно давно и весьма широко обсуждается проблема контроля за вооружениями через призму так называемых «разрушительных технологий», причем не только новых, но и уже хорошо подзабытых старых, — разъяснил в эксклюзивном интервью «СП» сам Владимир Козин. — Подобный принцип раньше уже применялся в отношении наших ядерных ракет межконтинентальной дальности, способных преодолевать расстояние свыше 5,5 тысячи километров, известных за рубежом как «Сатана», которые были произвольно квалифицированы американцами как «дестабилизирующие». Понятное дело, что аналогичное оружие Америки при этом рассматривалось в Вашингтоне исключительно как «стабилизирующее».

— Откуда, так сказать, «растут ноги» у этих намерений? Едва ли Запад на самом деле заботит то, что у России имеется какая-то «разрушительная технология» или «дестабилизирующая ракета», угрожающие всему миру. Скорее, это от бессилия, что ничего стоящего противопоставить нашим разработкам не удается?

— Да, это самая первая и реальная причина, хоть и не афишируемая в западных заявлениях. Вторая причина — это бесперспективная надежда на то, что в рамках какого-то переговорного процесса Россия поведет себя по принципу, образно выражаясь, «звери задрожали, в обморок упали», то есть сразу пойдет на какие-то уступки и начнет предлагать сокращения своих перспективных вооружений в одностороннем порядке — за «здорово живешь».

— А мы разве можем так сейчас поступить?

— Иногда, к сожалению, мы забегаем вперед паровоза. Например, американцы никогда еще не говорили о контроле за системами собственного гиперзвукового оружия. По крайней мере, публично. А мы взяли, и предложили рассмотреть эти виды вооружений в ноябре 2018 года, то есть еще при президенте Трампе, как пояснялось, с целью начала соответствующего переговорного процесса. Но прошло два года, президентом стал Байден. А какие-то результаты на этом направлении достигнуты?

Складывается твердое убеждение, что и не могут быть достигнуты. Об этом говорят открытые заявления действующего военно-политического руководства США. Их просто надо видеть и слышать.

По-прежнему Вашингтон стремится «вышибать» у нас наиболее перспективные виды вооружений, причем на селективной, выборочной основе, когда обе стороны будут сокращать одни виды вооружений (у нас), а другие — оставлять нетронутыми (у них).

Даже предлагая нам сократить боевой маневрирующий планирующий блок «Авангард», до сих пор не назвали: а что они могли бы сократить из этого типа у себя, если у них из этой серии пока ничего не принято на вооружение, идут только испытания, а скорость таких блоков в разы отстает от скорости аналогичных российских систем? При этом американцы не учитывают, что даже продленный договор о сокращении стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений (ДСНВ-3) содержит, в частности, ограничения только по количеству ядерных боезарядов, но не по их качеству.

Что касается перспективной МБР «Сармат», то она до сих пор не принята на вооружение, ее массовое производство не начато, ее испытания продолжаются. Стало быть, она пока не подпадает под ограничения ДСНВ-3.

Сами же американцы, как я уже говорил, ничего такого нам не предлагали. Соединенные Штаты с нами нормальные дипломатические отношения-то восстановить не могут после рейдерского захвата нашей дипсобственности на американской территории. А для решения придуманной ими проблемы «сбалансирования численности» штатного состава оставшихся дипломатических представительств стали учитывать количество российских сотрудников, работающих в Постоянном представительстве России при ООН, которые не имеют никакого отношения к нашим двусторонним отношениям и не могут учитываться при определении паритета кадрового состава диппредставительств России в США и американских в России.

— То есть разговоры о системе «Периметр» — это просто для отвода глаз, маскировка для более глобальных намерений?

— Американцев и НАТО заботит, конечно же, не только наш «Периметр», но еще и «Посейдон». Эти названия, конечно, впрямую не упоминаются нигде, но нам недвусмысленно дают понять, о чем именно идет речь. Это очень опасная тенденция искусственного деления вооружений на «разрушительные» и «неразрушительные», «деструктивные» и «стабилизирующие».

Нам надо всячески уходить от обсуждения этой псевдопроблемы, а уж тем более отказываться, причем категорически, от ее решения за счет ослабления собственной национальной безопасности, подрыва стратегической стабильности и однобокого решения большой и многоплановой проблемы контроля над вооружениями в пользу США.

— Означают ли все эти натовские и американские «телодвижения», что Россия на данный момент настолько превосходит весь «цивилизованный Запад» в военных технологиях, что может уже позволить себе диктовать ему собственные условия?

— На данный момент Россия не только спокойно может себе это позволить, она, я считаю, уже просто обязана это сделать. Нам не надо оправдываться, к чему постоянно принуждают нас США и НАТО, то и дело пытаясь загонять в угол, как плохая учительница постоянно ставит в неловкое положение нерадивого ученика, вырабатывая у нас стабильный и хронический комплекс повсеместной вины за то, что мы не совершали.

По всем перспективным видам современных ядерных и неядерных вооружений Россия к настоящему моменту просто на лихом коне обскакала и НАТО, и США. Так что нам давно пора не обсуждать какие-то там однобокие сокращения, а решать совсем другие проблемы контроля за ядерными и иными вооружениями. То есть в увязке с видами вооружений, определяющих стратегическую стабильность и взаимный оружейный паритет на основе принципа равенства, равной и неделимой безопасности.

— Какие именно?

— В первую очередь, на мой взгляд, нам нужно поставить американцам ультиматум по скорейшему и необратимому выводу их тактического ядерного вооружения изо всех государств Европы (Нидерланды, Бельгия, Италия, ФРГ) и азиатской части Турции, которое постоянно модернизируется под новые самолеты-носители, включая высокоточную корректируемую авиабомбу B61−12. Просто на том основании, что российского тактического ядерного вооружения наземного и воздушного базирования за пределами нашей страны нет нигде, даже у стран-союзников по ОДКБ.

Во-вторых, американцев давно надо бы заставить подписать договор о недопустимости размещения ударных и иных видов вооружений в космическом пространстве ни при каких обстоятельствах. Причем просто на паритетных началах, образно говоря, «космос на космос», безо всяких разменов в области иных перспективных видов вооружений России.

В-третьих, США вместе с Великобританией и Францией должны перейти на ядерную стратегию ненанесения первого ядерного удара. У Америки, например, есть одна «фишка» — Launch on warning, так называемый «запуск по предупреждению», которая дает ей право нанести превентивный ядерный удар только при одном лишь подозрении на то, что кто-то что-то запустил в сторону США, причем в условиях, когда Россия занимает первую строчку в списке государств, по которым они планируют нанести первый ядерный удар. Наш же ядерный удар возможен только в качестве ответной меры на документально подтвержденный запуск вражеских ядерных ракет по территории России.

В-четвертых, безо всяких-яких американцы должны закрыть свою уже действующую оперативную противоракетную базу в румынском населенном пункте Девеселу, а также свернуть аналогичный объект, достраиваемый под польским Редзиково, близ города Слупск, на том основании, что это комбинированные военные объекты, способные иметь как оборонительные, так и наступательные виды вооружений. Причем относящиеся к классу ударных вооружений передового базирования.

Дальше посмотрим, что еще США должны сделать, но Россия ни в коем случае не должна отказываться от своих уникальных перспективных военных систем, разработанных талантливыми учеными и конструкторами нашего оборонно-промышленного комплекса. Подобные системы со временем могли бы позволить перейти к безъядерному миру на основе иной формулы: «на принципах оборонительного неядерного сдерживания, которое никому не угрожает».

Разумеется, выход на такую формулу будет возможен только с полного согласия всех ядерных государств, без исключения. Да и при поддержке всех остальных государств.

Автор: Андрей Захарченко. Источник: “Свободная пресса”

 

В.Козин: Примеров связи Пентагона и сирийских боевиков достаточно

Террористы в Сирии имеют возможности выходить на радиочастоты, на которых работает российская авиация, сообщили в Минобороны РФ. Военный эксперт Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik прокомментировал эту информацию.
Террористы в Сирии имеют технические возможности  для того, чтобы выходить на радиочастоты, на которых работает авиация РФ, заявил заместитель министра обороны Александр Фомин, выступая на международном Сяншаньском форуме по вопросам безопасности.
 
"Хочу сказать, что террористы (в Сирии) имеют даже технические возможности выходить на радиочастоты, на которых работает наша авиация. А для этого нужно специальное оборудование", – сказал Фомин.
 
Он подчеркнул, что они его делают "не на коленках и не в сирийской пустыне".
 
Профессор Академии военных наук РФ, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин в эфире радио Sputnik отметил, что действующие в Сирии боевики получают военную и военно-техническую помощь с самого начала гражданского конфликта в этой стране.
 
"Ведущие страны Запада во главе с Соединенными Штатами, а также их союзники в регионе, не входящие в НАТО, с самого начала сирийских событий помогали и продолжают помогать сейчас незаконным вооруженным формированиям на территории САР, включая террористические организации. Речь идет как о поставке вооружений и военной техники, включая радиотехническое и электронное оборудование, так и о финансовой подпитке, политическом прикрытии, а также о помощи военными советниками. Невозможно себе представить, как существовали бы на протяжении семи лет эти вооруженные формирования, если бы не получали постоянно такую поддержку", – сказал Владимир Козин.
 
В качестве одного из примеров прямого взаимодействия американских военных и действующих в Сирии боевиков он назвал закрытую военную зону вокруг американской базы Ат-Танф.
 
"Особого внимания в этом смысле заслуживает абсолютно незаконно объявленная американскими военными закрытая военная зона вокруг их базы Ат-Танф на юго-востоке Сирии близ границы с Иорданией. Сама эта база была создана точно так же незаконно, без согласия правительства Сирии и без решения Совбеза ООН – и вокруг нее на обширной территории сохраняется зона, где по соседству с американскими военными базируются самые разные экстремистские группировки. И совершенно понятно, что в этой зоне осуществляется самое тесное взаимодействие между военными США и этими группировками", – отметил Владимир Козин.
 

Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/42600

 

В.Козин: РФ не угрожает Эстонии

Эксперт назвал милитаризмом слова президента Эстонии о способе «сдержать Россию»

Способ «сдерживания России», предложенный Евросоюзу эстонским президентом Керсти Кальюлайд, является необоснованным, так как РФ не угрожает Эстонии, это заявление Таллина — милитаризм в действии. Об этом в понедельник, 30 августа, заявил «Известиям» член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин.

Накануне эстонский лидер заявила, что Евросоюз мог бы профинансировать создание системы противовоздушной обороны (ПВО) средней дальности в странах Балтии в качестве одной из мер «сдерживания России». По ее словам, страны Балтии, в том числе Эстония, расходуют на оборону больше 2% ВВП, но до сих пор не имеют своей системы ПВО. А такая система, по мнению Кальюлайд, помогла бы «сдерживать Россию». Как добавила эстонский лидер, ЕС встречается ежегодно и обсуждает развитие обороны стран-членов.

«Это предложение необоснованно, поскольку Россия никоим образом Эстонии не угрожает. Странно, что у государства не хватает денег на противовоздушную оборону и оно обращается к Евросоюзу. Эстония страна-член НАТО, и я удивлен, что ее союзнику не помогают прикрывать эстонское небо — просьба Таллина на это указывает», — сказал Козин.

С другой стороны, по словам эксперта, надо иметь в виду, что на эстонской военно-воздушной базе «Эмори» находятся самолеты из 15 стран НАТО. Они регулярно патрулируют воздушное пространство трех государств Балтии — Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии, добавил он.

«Некоторые самолеты могут нести при этом авиационные бомбы свободного падения. Я бы назвал заявления Таллина милитаризмом в действии», — заключил эксперт.

Ранее, 14 июня, премьер-министр Эстонии Кая Каллас заявила, что Россия в настоящее время является самой большой угрозой для Североатлантического альянса. По ее словам, НАТО должно продолжать укреплять свою позицию сдерживания и обороны, что в свою очередь требует как ресурсов, так и новых решений. В России неоднократно указывали, что страны Запада пугают друг друга выдуманной российской угрозой с целью наращивания военного присутствия у российских границ.

В марте главы МИД стран Балтии на встрече в Брюсселе с главой Госдепа США Энтони Блинкеном подтвердили важность американского военного присутствия в регионе. Министры также обсудили с госсекретарем поддержку Восточного партнерства, в частности Грузии и Украины, а также рассмотрели ситуацию в Белоруссии.

В январе 2020 года в столице Эстонии открылся Центр управления воздушными операциями над странами Балтии. Все центры будут круглосуточно мониторить воздушное пространство над Эстонией, Литвой и Латвией.

Источник: “Известия”

В.Козин: Создание в России ударных дронов является весьма важным и перспективным направлением

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в эфире радио Sputnik.

В России начали строить первый завод по серийному производству ударных беспилотных летательных аппаратов.

В.П. Козин: «Создание в России ударных дронов является весьма важным и перспективным направлением. Это позволит укрепить обороноспособность российских Вооруженных Сил и повысить их ударный потенциал».

Эфир от 16  апреля 2021 г.

 

В.Козин: Швецию и Финляндию затягивают в НАТО

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ назвал цели исследований по поводу возможного захвата Прибалтики

Целями алармистских исследований, в которых строятся прогнозы о том, за сколько дней Россия может захватить Прибалтику, являются желание США втянуть Швецию и Финляндию в НАТО и повысить уровень расходов на оборону, считает военный эксперт Владимир Козин

Шведский Институт тотальной обороны провел исследования и выяснил, что если Россия захочет, то сможет захватить страны Прибалтики за три дня. К аналогичному выводу ранее пришли и эксперты американского стратегического исследовательского центра RAND.

"Швецию, а также Финляндию затягивают в НАТО. Для этого нужно показать, что им угрожает Российская Федерация", — сказал Sputnik профессор Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин.

Кроме того, США стремятся увеличить процент военных отчислений союзников.

"Дональд Трамп открытым текстом заявил (на встрече с генсеком НАТО Йенсом Столтенбергом — ред.), что расходы на военные нужды в 2% от ВВП это очень мало и надо поднять эту планку до 4%", — напомнил Козин.

Источник:  Sputnik - Латвия

В.П. Козин выступил в передаче «Умные парни» по ракетно-ядерной проблематике в увязке с Украиной на радиостанции «Говорит Москва»

«Информационный день с Евгенией Волгиной и Юрием Будкиным (16+)». Весь день на связи со студией «Говорит Москва» военные аналитики, политологи, депутаты, общественные деятели.
Гость: Владимир Козин, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ.
 

В.П. Козин выступил на XV конвенте РАМИ

Член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО В.П. Козин выступил в секции по проблематике контроля над вооружениями (КНВ) на XV Конвенте РАМИ, проведенном в МГИМО в середине октября, с сообщением на тему «Эффективные международные механизмы недопущения глобальной ракетно-ядерной войны».

По его мнению, существующие международные договорные акты в виде ДНЯО и ДЗЯО не снижают угрозу развязывания ракетно-ядерной войны ведущими государствами «трансатлантической солидарности», а ДВЗЯИ вообще не вступил в силу, и США заявили, что не будут ратифицировать его.

Обрисовав нынешний процесс с сфере КНВ как находящийся практически на нулевом уровне, что произошло по инициативе и в результате целенаправленных акций США и ведущих стран-членов НАТО, эксперт ЦВПИ высказал сомнение в том, что на указанном направлении в ближайшие годы может быть достигнут какой-то заметный прорыв. Свое суждение он пояснил тем обстоятельством, что Вашингтон негативно относится к возобновлению конструктивных переговоров по этой проблематике и занял отрицательную позицию по 15 ключевым проблемам, которые относятся к КНВ. В.П. Козин предостерег возвращаться к этой проблематике совместно с Соединенными Штатами в условиях масштабной вооруженной агрессии, развязанной против Российской Федерации под управлением и плотным руководством Вашингтона. Россия также должна учитывать призыв комиссии при американском конгрессе, что США должны быть готовы к одновременной войне с Россией и Китаем, в том числе к ядерной.

За последние годы американская сторона в одностороннем порядке вышла из четырех договоров, относящихся к ядерному и неядерному оружию; отказалась подписывать и ратифицировать три договора из этой серии; грубо нарушила и продолжает нарушать еще четыре многосторонних договора; отказалась вообще обсуждать с Россией еще четыре потенциальных договорных акта (см. слайды, размещенные ниже).

Возобновлению процесса КНВ препятствуют шесть ключевых американских военных стратегий, одобренных администрацией Дж. Байдена. Они носят агрессивно-наступательный характер в отношении России и КНР, а действующая ядерная военно-стратегическая установка США предусматривает применение против России и КНР первого ракетно-ядерного удара, усиленного средствами глобальной системы ПРО и силами общего назначения.

Соединенные Штаты и их ближайшие союзники по НАТО резко усилили свои ракетно-ядерные и противоракетные вооружения, а также силы общего назначения, которые относятся к средствам передового базирования, то есть развернутых в непосредственной близости России. В.П. Козин с сожалением отметил, что этот термин практически исчез из российского военно-политического лексикона, хотя он является правомерным при квалификации военной активности названных государств, к которым вполне применим термин «враждебные государства».

Он подверг критике российских либеральных и явно прозападных экспертов, которые по-прежнему выступают за возобновление российско-американского переговорного процесса «любой ценой» и на основе выдвижения Соединенным Штатам и НАТО избыточных уступок со стороны России в сфере КНВ.

В.П. Козин предложил, чтобы Россия выступила с предложением ко всем ядерным государствам договориться о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе, что реально позволило бы отвратить угрозу ракетно-ядерной войны без вступления в длительные переговоры, а в случае их отказа – чтобы Москва перешла на стратегию нанесения первого ядерного удара, от которой не отказываются США и их ядерные союзники Великобритания и Франция. Переход на стратегию нанесения первого ядерного удара защитит Российскую Федерацию от реального ракетного-ядерного удара США и НАТО.

Докладчик также высказался против начала переговоров с американской стороной о сокращении СНВ после февраля 2026 года, когда подойдет срок завершения действия Договора СНВ-3. В перспективном Договоре СНВ-4 Белый дом будет стремиться ограничить или сократить все семь перспективных российских видов вооружений, по которым наше государство имеет явное военно-технические преимущество (имеются в виду шесть видов, о которых было объявлено в 2018 году, плюс система «Циркон», появившаяся позднее). Кроме того, обозначенные переговоры представляется нецелесообразным вести в условиях продолжающейся комбинированной агрессии Украины и НАТО против Российской Федерации, которую ведущие страны этого военного блока во главе США намерены вести еще много лет. Россия также должна учитывать недавний призыв одной из комиссий американского Конгресса, что США должны быть готовы к ведению одновременной войны с Россией и Китаем, в том числе ядерной.

Следует также отказаться от практики демонстрационных показов новейших российских систем вооружений американским и иным представителям НАТО с целью «вовлечения их в переговорный процесс по КНВ». Такие показы будут использоваться враждебной стороной в качестве предлога для начала переговорного процесса с целью ослабления российского оборонного потенциала комбинированного интегрированного сдерживания, в который входят не только ракетно-ядерные вооружения, но и гиперзвуковые планирующие блоки, а также некоторые другие ударные средства.

***

 

В.П. Козин выступил на международной конференции

29 ноября член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН выступил на международной конференции, организованной ИМИ МГИМО (У) на тему: «Будущий мировой порядок: новые параметры».

Тема выступления эксперта ЦВПИ была сформулирована как «NATO is for a wider war with Russia» («НАТО – за более широкую войну с Россией»). В докладе была дана оценка стратегической ситуации в Европе, целенаправленно созданная благодаря усилиям США и НАТО для оказания повышенного уровня силового давления на Российскую Федерации и формирования реальных и масштабных угроз ее национальной  безопасности в виде «Чикагской триады» – оперативного сочетания ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и неядерных видов тяжелых вооружений в едином ударном механизме.

В.П. Козин также обратил внимание на агрессивный характер ключевых военных стратегий США и решений саммитов НАТО, одобренных в последние годы, а также на милитаристские публичные выступления ряда высокопоставленных государственных и военных представителей стран Североатлантического союза (Болгарии, Чехии и ФРГ), в которых содержался прямой призыв к ведению масштабной войны с Россией.

По мнению выступавшего, совместные военные действия Украины с США, государствами-членами трансатлантического альянса и внеблоковыми государствами могут квалифицироваться не иначе как «комбинированная прямая агрессия Украины и НАТО против России», а также как «геноцид против мирных граждан республик Донбасса и Новороссии, которые вошли в состав Российской Федерации». В.П. Козин напомнил, что терминологическое определение «агрессия» и «геноцид» уже давно были определены в ООН и оно не вызывают сомнений. Все другие дефиниции, например, «конфликт», «противостояние», «кризис», «гибридная война» и «война чужими руками» ставят на одну доску агрессора и жертву агрессии, а также не определяет того, кто и когда начал такую агрессию и по каким причинам. Датой начала агрессии Украины против Донбасса эксперт ЦВПИ считает 14 апреля 2014 года, когда врио президента Украины А.Турчинов подписал декрет № 405/2014 о начале "АТО" против Донбасса, а по сути развязал вооруженную агрессию против него. Вооруженная агрессия Украины и НАТО против России началась после официального вхождения ДНР, ЛНР, а также Херсонской и Запорожской областей в состав Российской Федерации 30 сентября 2022 года.

Подготовленные автором слайды отражают основные положения его выступления (прилагаются ниже).

 

В.П. Козин принял участие в дискуссии по проблематике цифровых технологий

16 декабря член-корреспондент РАВН В.П. Козин принял участие в дискуссии на тему: «Цифровые технологии в вооруженных конфликтах: смягчение гуманитарных последствий». Она была организована Представительством Международного комитета Красного креста (МККК) в России.

Сотрудники этой структуры сообщили, что она рекомендует государствам принять новые, юридически обязывающие нормы, регулирующие создание и применение автономных систем вооружений, чтобы гарантировать адекватный контроль со стороны человека и возможность для него принимать решения о применении силы. МККК считает, что это потребует запрета определенных видов автономных систем вооружений и строгого регулирования других их видов.

Выступавшие обосновывали свою позицию тем, что применение автономных систем вооружений имеет непредсказуемые последствия именно из-за их неизбирательного действия. Лучший способ этого добиться – запретить автономные системы вооружений, которые разработаны или используются таким образом, что последствия их применения невозможно в достаточной мере понять, предвидеть или объяснить. Пояснялось, что технический прогресс в области создания новых видов вооружений приводит к тому, что решения на применение силы на поле боя все чаще могут приниматься роботизированными системами, которые могут действовать без вмешательства человека. МККК предостерегает от применения такого оружия, если при этом не гарантируется соблюдение международного гуманитарного права.

В.П. Козин обратил внимание на то, что при подходе к названной проблеме должно учитываться то обстоятельство, что имеются не только наступательные, но и оборонительные виды вооружений (например, ракеты-перехватчики системы противоракетной обороны), которые не могут быть использованы против людей, а создаются для перехвата баллистических, крылатых и гиперзвуковых ракет (планирующих блоков или глайдеров).

Он выступил против искусственного деления перспективных технологий военного и двойного назначения (ТВДН), которые используются при создании новых видов вооружений, на негативные (разрушительные) и позитивные (конструктивные), а также выборочного применения подобной терминологии применительно к одним государствам и неприменения их к другим. Особое внимание при этом было обращено на нецелесообразность применения взаимоисключающих определений указанных видов технологий и присвоение отдельными государствами права произвольно трактовать те или иные технологии двух названных видов на «приемлемые и неприемлемые».

В.П. Козин выразил сомнение в том, что введение запрета на внедрение ТВДН может обеспечить контроль над созданием новых перспективных видов вооружений. Свою точку зрения он мотивировал тем, что подобные технологии будет трудно контролировать по причине их повышенной секретности и отсутствия в настоящее время доверия между Россией и США, а также между Россией и НАТО в целом. Именно это обстоятельство, а также значительное накапливание ими комбинированных видов вооружений и бесконтрольная активизация их военной деятельности в зонах «передового базирования» относительно территории Российской Федерации с особой остротой выдвинули на передний план такую проблему как целесообразность предоставления Москве надежных международно-правовых и юридически обязывающих гарантий безопасности со стороны Соединенных Штатов и трансатлантического альянса.

В.П. Козин принял участие в монографии, изданной в Вене

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ, член-корреспондент РАЕН и РАВН В.П. Козин выступил соавтором в коллективной монографии, вышедшей в Вене в 2019 году на немецком языке: “Der Tiefe Staat Schlagt Zu. Wie die westliche Welt Krisen erzeugt and Kriege vorbereitet” (Wien: Promedia Verlag. 2019. 280S. ISBN: 978-3-85371-449-2).

В представленной им главе «Новая холодная война и запланированная эскалация конфликта США и Европы с Россией» (сс. 193-214) показаны особенности военных приготовлений США и НАТО в сфере ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных вооружений в непосредственной близости от России.  Эксперт ЦВПИ считает, что холодная война не прекратила свое существование с принятием Парижской «Хартии для новой Европы» в 1990 году, а продолжает свое существование в виде ее второй фазы, начавшейся после решения стран-участниц НАТО, принятого в апреле 2014 года, о наращивании военной активности против Российской Федерации.

По мнению В.П. Козина, такая холодная война, получившая неофициальное название в экспертных кругах многих государств мира как «холодная война 2.0» или «более холодная война», имеет от своей первой фазы следующие отличия. В ходе этой второй фазы:

1) практически полностью затормозился процесс контроля над вооружениями, в особенности над ракетно-ядерными и противоракетными системами, и четко обозначилось стремление США выйти из ДРСМД и, весьма вероятно, отказаться от продления Договора СНВ-3 на последующие пять лет после 2021 года;

2) усилилась агрессивная составляющая в ключевых американских военных стратегиях и повысились военные расходы США и НАТО;

3) значительно расширился список незаконных торгово-экономических секторальных санкций, введенных США и Евросоюзом в отношении российских коммерческих предприятий и организаций, а также персональных рестриктивных мер, необоснованно принятых против большой группы представителей российских государственных и коммерческих структур;

4) заметно возросла степень антироссийской риторики со стороны США и НАТО на государственном и экспертном уровне; 5) увеличилось количество попыток свержения законно избранных лидеров в иностранных государствах со стороны США.

Эксперт ЦВПИ высказал ряд практических рекомендаций по выправлению создавшейся ситуации с помощью политико-дипломатических усилий.

В.П. Козин принял участие в обсуждении проблемы НЯОПУ

Член-корреспондент РАВН В.П. Козин принял участие в дистанционном обсуждении проблемы неприменения ядерного оружия в первом ударе или сокращенно НЯОПУ.

Дискуссия на эту тему состоялась 15 июля 2021 года на площадке международной НКО «Глобальное неприменение в первом ударе», участники которой активно вступают за достижение поэтапной договоренности по такому вопросу между всеми девятью ядерными государствами: вначале на двусторонней, а затем и на многосторонней основе.

Сторонники такой идеи считают, что ее реализация представляется в настоящее время наиболее реальной, чем требование к ядерной «девятке» подписать и ратифицировать вступивший в силу международный Договор о запрещении ядерного оружия. Зарубежные антиядерные движения признают, что шансы на достижение договоренности о НЯОПУ возросли именно между США и Россией после проведения российско-американского саммита 16 июля в Женеве, на котором стороны вновь зафиксировали положение о недопустимости развязывания ядерной войны, в которой не будет победителей. Вместе с тем, сторонники НЯОПУ предполагают, что наибольшее сопротивление претворению в жизнь предложения по такому вопросу окажут три ядерные государства НАТО, располагающие ядерными арсеналами: Великобритания, США и Франция.

К сожалению, проведенная дискуссия показала, что вдохновители осуществления предложения о НЯОПУ не знакомы с тем фактом, что соответствующее взаимное обязательство уже давно имеют Россия и КНР. В частности, отдельные представители западных антиядерных организаций, выступающие за придание такой договоренности универсального характера, ошибочно считают, что Россия, якобы, в 1993 году отказалась от такого обязательства. Но такое утверждение не соответствует действительности, поскольку в Военной доктрине Российской Федерации, утвержденной в ноябре того года, вообще нет никаких положений об отказе от обязательства в отношении НЯОПУ.

В мае этого года В.П. Козин уже обратил внимание международной НКО «Глобальное неприменение в первом ударе» на указанную ошибку, которая появилась после комментария о российской Военной доктрине в 1993 году в газете «Нью-Йорк Таймс», где бездоказательно утверждалось, что Россия отказалась от такого обязательства именно в это время и в этом документе. В ходе июльской дискуссии текущего года один из основных содокладчиков напомнил о критическом мнении российского эксперта по данному вопросу.

В.П. Козин ответил на ряд вопросов участников обмена мнениями по ядерной проблематике, в том числе на вопрос о том, кто контролирует тактическое ядерное оружие (ТЯО) США, размещенное в четырех странах Европы и в азиатской части Турции: Вашингтон или государства НАТО, давшие согласие на его складирование на своей территории. В.П. Козин считает, что в настоящее время его фактическое применение контролируется исключительно Соединенными Штатами, а персонально – единолично президентом страны.

Член-корреспондент РАВН подверг критике утверждение одного из участников дебатов, что Москва и Вашингтон несут равную ответственность за размещение тактического ядерного оружия на европейском континенте. При этом с его стороны было обращено внимание на то существенное обстоятельство, что если американское ТЯО размещено там в нарушение Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия, то российские ядерные средства расположены именно на территории России и по этой причине они не вступают в противоречие с указанным договором.

В.П. Козин также указал, что часто появляющиеся в западных политологических кругах заявления о «количественном превосходстве» ТЯО России по сравнению с ТЯО США не подтверждаются никакими официальными заявлениями обеих сторон, которые никогда не вели переговоров о сокращении этих видов ядерных вооружений и, соответственно, никогда не обменивались данными об их общем количестве.

В.П. Козин. Космические силы США: их ключевые задачи и будущие потенциалы

 

Член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН, ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ  В.П. Козин опубликовал новую монографию: Космические силы США: их ключевые задачи и будущие потенциалы. Москва: Издательство Сабашниковых. 2022. 444 С. (с иллюстрациями)
 
ISBN: 978-5-82420-184-0
 
Монография посвящена вопросу создания в США Космических сил, их ключевым задачам и перспективным военно-техническим потенциалам. Описываются дебаты по поводу их создания в американских военно-политических кругах с учетом политических, юридических, финансовых и организационных особенностей милитаризации космоса Соединенными Штатами.
 
Излагается позиция НАТО по военно-космической проблематике.
 
Монография является расширенным и актуализированным вариантом монографии автора «U.S. Military Space Policy: Key Guidelines and Future Capabilities», которая вышла в 2019 году на английском языке объемом 312 страницы. Она представляет собой продолжение серии авторских исследований, посвященных модернизации стратегического и тактического ядерного оружия, эволюции глобальной системы ПРО и основным национальным военно-политическим стратегиям США.
В издании на русском языке значительно расширен раздел, который касается космической политики России. Это сделано для более полного сопоставления позиций Москвы и Вашингтона по тематике использования космического пространства.
Предлагаемое издание может быть использовано специалистами, занимающимися вопросами стратегической стабильности и контроля над вооружениями, а также теми, кто изучает военно-политические проблемы российско-американских отношений или российско-американские отношения в целом.
 

 

 

В.П. Козин: "Третья мировая не начнется ни сегодня, ни завтра, ни послезавтра"

 

Но это не означает, что не нужно сохранять порох сухим и не держать ухо востро. Так как можно пропустить военные приготовления к ней...

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО принял участие в программе “Диагноз ясен?!” в ток-шоу “Место встречи” на телеканале НТВ. Ведущий А. Норкин.

Эфир от 24 апреля 2020г.

 

В.П. Козин: «США не хотят отказываться от первого ядерного удара»

Об этом свидетельствуют ключевые военно-политические стратегии, обнародованные Белым домом

После долгих раздумий нынешняя администрация США обнародовала серию ключевых военно-политических стратегий: 12 октября вышла «Стратегия национальной безопасности», а 27 октября – сразу три документа: «Стратегия национальной обороны», «Обзор ядерной политики» (ядерная стратегия) и «Стратегия противоракетной обороны». Наша редакция попросила прокомментировать эти документы Владимира Козина, члена-корреспондента Академии военных наук России, автора монографии «Ключевые военные стратегии США: их национальные и международные последствия».

– Владимир Петрович, чем вызвана публикация одновременно трёх американских стратегий – обороны, ядерной и противоракетной?

– Обычно каждая из этих важнейших национальных стратегий публикуется с временным интервалом. Такой практике следовали практически все американские президенты. Но поскольку подготовка этих доктринальных военно-стратегических установок по каким-то причинам затянулась, нынешняя администрация решила обнародовать сразу три документа. Тем более что такое государство, как США, не может долгое время руководствоваться стратегиями, одобренными несколько лет назад, к тому же утверждёнными политическим конкурентом – предыдущим президентом-республиканцем Дональдом Трампом. Да и союзники по НАТО, надо полагать, заждались изложения военно-стратегических установок своего «старшего партнёра». Джо Байдена подтолкнули к этому крайне важные для демократов промежуточные выборы в конгресс США, которые пройдут 8 ноября.

– Учитывая, что за океаном все активнее разыгрывают ядерную тему, обновлённая ядерная стратегия США несомненно вызывает интерес. Что вы скажете по этому поводу? Как она определяет роль ядерного оружия в американской внешней и оборонной политике?

– Прежде всего хотел бы пояснить, что обнародован несекретный вариант стратегии. Имеется ещё текст c особой степенью секретности, который не публикуется. Известно лишь, что он содержит список целей ядерного нападения в первом превентивном и упреждающем ударе по четырём категориям объектов потенциальных противников США и НАТО. Цели определены по каждой стране в отдельности.

Замечу также, что из обновлённой стратегии исчезли 14 оснований для применения ядерного оружия, которые были изложены в такой же стратегии Трампа. Предполагаю, что они перешли в секретный вариант ядерной стратегии Байдена.

Что касается обнародованной её части, то в ней сразу оговорено, что ядерная стратегия 2022 года дополняет две основополагающие национальные стратегии: национальной безопасности и обороны, которые также вышли в октябре этого года. При этом подчёркивается приверженность политике эффективного ядерного сдерживания и расширенного ядерного сдерживания. В последнем случае под этим понимают предоставление ядерного зонтика всем 29 союзникам по НАТО, а также внеблоковым партнёрам США: Австралии, Израилю, Южной Корее и Японии. Такая формулировка употребляется всегда, это уже стало прочной традицией.

Американское ядерное оружие стратегического и тактического назначения призвано сдержать агрессию против страны и укрепить её безопасность, заверить в поддержке союзников и партнёров, а также обеспечить успех, если сдерживание окажется неудачным. Подчёркнуто: ничто не может заменить ядерное сдерживание.

Ядерное оружие сохранится в военном потенциале США в будущем на неопределённый период времени. Оно составит важный элемент комбинированной и более широкой триады, чем ядерная, в которую входят три оперативно связанные между собой компонента: ракетно-ядерные вооружения, система ПРО и силы общего назначения (СОН).

В стратегии также обращается внимание на возможность перерастания боевых действий с применением СОН в боевые действия с использованием ядерных вооружений. Надо напомнить: в последние годы вооружённые силы США проводят масштабные обычные военные учения, которые заканчиваются нанесением условных ядерных ударов.

В стратегии содержится установка на определение среди союзников оптимального взаимодействия между ядерными и неядерными потенциалами стратегического назначения. Делается акцент на внедрение перспективных технологий и инновационного дизайна при создании ракетно-ядерных арсеналов.

– Каким образом изменится американский стратегический и тактический ядерный потенциал в свете реализации новой стратегии?

– Американское военно-политическое руководство продолжит основательную модернизацию всех видов национальных стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений, средств их доставки, а также командно-штабной системы управления ядерными силами и оперативного взаимодействия с ними.

Постепенно произойдёт техническое обновление всех трёх компонентов стратегических ядерных сил (СЯС). В 2023–2027 годы будет продолжаться создание новой МБР – «Сентинел», которая в американских документах ранее называлась «МБР стратегического сдерживания наземного базирования». Она заменит «Минитмен-3» в полном объёме, то есть их общее количество сохранится в неизменном виде: ровно 400 единиц. На них будут установлены боезаряды двух видов: W87-0/Mk21 и W87-0/Mk21A.

Появление такой МБР опровергает мнение ряда экспертов, считающих, что американские СЯС перейдут на диаду, полностью исключив из традиционной стратегической триады ядерные ракеты межконтинентальной дальности наземного базирования.

– А что с морским компонентом СЯС США?

– С 2030 года ПЛАРБ типа «Огайо» начнут заменять атомными ракетоносцами типа «Колумбия». Их общее количество будет доведено минимально до 12 субмарин. На них останутся прежние баллистические ракеты «Трайдент-II D5», которые завершат вторую фазу продления срока их службы. Будет выполнена программа замены ядерных боезарядов W88 Alt 370. На некоторых ПЛАРБ сохранятся БРПЛ с боезарядом малой мощности W76-2 (по открытым данным, от пяти килотонн и меньше).

США параллельно окажут содействие Великобритании в деле замены ядерных боезарядов на британских ПЛАРБ.

СЯС воздушного базирования будут представлены модернизированным тяжёлым бомбардировщиком В-52Н, который останется в строю до 2050 года, а также новым бомбардировщиком В-21 «Рейдер», который заменит стратегический бомбардировщик В-2А. Предполагаемое общее количество самолётов В-21 – минимум 100 машин.

Произойдёт замена крылатых ракет воздушного базирования на ракету повышенной дальности с ядерным боезарядом W80-4 для установки на бомбардировщиках, которые при патрулировании будут находиться «в зонах ожидания нанесения удара».

Будут выведены из состава ядерных сил боезаряды воздушного базирования В83-1 и крылатые ракеты морского базирования в ядерном снаряжении. Сроки пока не объявлены.

Продолжатся программы замены ядерных авиабомб трёх модификаций – В61-3, В61-4 и В61-7 тактического назначения на более высокоточную корректируемую авиабомбу В61-12 с мощностью боезаряда от 0,3 до 50 килотонн. Предстоит, кроме того, замена носителей ядерного оружия в виде тактических истребителей F-15E на F-35A, которые уже поступили и продолжают поступать на вооружение ряда государств – членов НАТО и внеблоковых стран – партнёров США. Самолёты F-35A, сертифицированные под доставку ядерных авиабомб, будут переданы даже безъядерной Финляндии, которая официально пока не стала членом НАТО. В Хельсинки уже заказали 64 такие машины.

– Как прописан в стратегии российский сюжет? Какие новации просматриваются в нём?

– Оценки ядерной политики России даются вслед за КНР. Они прописаны в довольно агрессивно-обвинительном ключе и с упорным утверждением, что российская сторона в последнее время делает упор на возможность применения ядерного оружия против Украины. И это при том что российское военно-политическое руководство ни разу не сделало какого-то заявления на этот счёт.

Утверждается, что Россия располагает 2000 тактическими (в тексте стратегии – нестратегическими) ядерными боезарядами, а также боезарядами на перспективных носителях, которые не засчитываются в суммарные уровни, определённые двусторонним российско-американским Договором СНВ-3. Касательно количества у России ядерных боезарядов тактического назначения надо отметить, что ни Москва, ни Вашингтон никогда не объявляли их количества, поскольку не вели переговоры об их ограничении или сокращении.

– А что в документе сказано о Китае, учитывая, что в недавно утверждённой «Стратегии национальной безопасности» он назван государством, представляющим особую угрозу для США?

– В документе обращается внимание, что КНР создала стратегическую ядерную триаду, стремится повысить степени её живучести, надёжности и эффективности, осуществляет программу модернизации своих ядерных вооружений, а к концу текущего столетия попытается довести национальный ядерный арсенал до одной тысячи ядерных боезарядов. Предполагается, что это позволит китайской стороне расширить опции использования ядерных сил в преддверии какого-то кризиса или в ходе его развития. Естественно, кризис не обозначен, но можно предположить, что имеется в виду Тайвань.

– Исходя из изложенных в стратегии Байдена планов по модернизации американской стратегической триады, а также стремления США подмять под себя весь мир, перспективы достижения договорённостей по контролю над вооружениями представляются, скорее всего, призрачными. Как вы считаете?

– Согласен с вами. Тем более что и в обнародованной ядерной стратегии США просматриваются явные противоречия на этот счёт. Например, голословно провозглашается, что Соединённые Штаты имеют желание снизить опору на ядерные вооружения в глобальном масштабе, а также уменьшить их роль в стратегии страны. Но при этом никакие практические инициативы во имя достижения обозначенной цели не выдвигаются.

Скажем, с одной стороны, содержится положение о продолжении контактов с другими ядерными государствами по контролю над ядерными вооружениями. Но с другой, в ядерную стратегию включены такие оговорки: по возможности, только на основе взаимности, при наличии доверия и с целью снижения ядерных рисков. Не много ли оговорок на этом пути? Да и при желании их все можно трактовать и применять по-своему, под предлогом обеспечения национальных интересов.

Американская сторона по-прежнему ставит задачу вовлечь КНР в переговорный процесс по контролю над ядерными вооружениями. А что США сделали для этого? Ничего. Наоборот, обозначили цель укрепления их военного потенциала в многовекторной среде: в космосе, кибер- и воздушном пространстве, под водой, а также намерены усилить ракетно-ядерные средства в Индо-Тихоокеанском регионе.

В американском документе говорится о возможности снижения уровня боеготовности ядерных сил США. Высказана заинтересованность в предотвращении ядерной войны, которая имела бы катастрофические последствия для Соединённых Штатов и всего мира. Звучит позитивно. А чем подкреплена такая точка зрения? Какими политическими инициативами и военно-техническими мерами? Их нет.

Более того, США снижают порог применения ядерного оружия. Об этом свидетельствуют и заметно участившиеся масштабные ядерные учения США и НАТО, регулярное патрулирование воздушного пространства Европы американскими стратегическими бомбардировщиками близ границ России и КНР, многонациональные операции ВВС альянса с самолётами «двойного назначения», проводимые в непосредственной близости от российских рубежей…

Записано, что американская сторона хотела бы уменьшить готовность противников нанести первый ядерный удар по США. Но сам Белый дом не отказался от стратегии нанесения первого ядерного удара и не намерен отказываться от неё и впредь.

В ядерной стратегии 2022 года одновременно открыто зафиксировано положение о необходимости повышения надёжности ядерного потенциала Североатлантического союза, а также более тесного взаимодействия СЯС США с ядерными силами Великобритании и Франции. Записано, что боевая готовность самолётов «двойного назначения» и возможность применения новой авиабомбы В61-12 в зонах передового базирования, то есть близ российской территории, не должна снижаться.

Многих американских законодателей весьма тревожит тот факт, что все американские президенты, включая нынешнего, имеют единоличное право отдавать приказ СЯС США применить ядерное оружие в первом ударе под сомнительными предлогами. Изменить этот порядок пока не удаётся.

В завершение выскажу мнение: с такими подходами и практическими действиями американской стороны, с её отказом вывезти всё тактическое ядерное оружие из Европы и Азии и демонтировать комбинированную оборонительно-наступательную глобальную систему ПРО на Евразийском континенте говорить с Соединёнными Штатами о взаимном и проверяемом контроле над вооружениями, увы, нереально.

Беседовал Владимир Кузарь, Источник: «Красная звезда»

 

В.П. Козин: Джозеф Байден: старик и бомба

Владимир Козин, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России
 
Администрация США опубликовала тексты ключевых военно-политических стратегий. Сначала вышла «Стратегия национальной безопасности», а 27 октября сразу же три документа: «Стратегия национальной обороны», «Обзор ядерной политики» (ядерная стратегия) и «Стратегия противоракетной обороны».
 
Упор на модернизацию
 
Насколько можно было убедиться, американское военно-политическое руководство намерено продолжить основательную модернизацию всех видов стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений, средств их доставки, а также командно-штабной системы управления ядерными силами и связи оперативного взаимодействия. Такой же курс обозначен и в «Стратегии национальной безопасности», и в «Стратегии национальной обороны».
 
Вашингтон планирует, что постепенно произойдёт замена всех трёх компонентов стратегической ядерной триады. В 2023-2027 годы продолжится создание новой МБР - «Сентинел», которая в американских документах ранее называлась межконтинентальной баллистической ракетой «стратегического сдерживания наземного базирования». «Сентинел» в полном объёме заменит МБР «Минитмен-3», также в полном объёме сохранится общее количество носителей - ровно 400 единиц, на которых будут установлены боезаряды двух видов: W87-0/Mk21 и W87-0/Mk21A.
 
И вот что примечательно: появление этой МБР опровергает мнение ряда российских экспертов, считавших, что американские СЯС перейдут на диаду, полностью исключив из традиционной стратегической триады ядерные ракеты наземного базирования межконтинентальной дальности. Это суждение оказалось ошибочным.
 
Теперь о морском компоненте американских СЯС. С 2030 года ПЛАРБ класса «Огайо» будут заменены атомными ракетоносцами класса «Колумбия». Их количество планируется довести (минимально) до 12 субмарин, причём после второй фазы продления срока службы на вооружении останутся и прежние БРПЛ «Трайдент-II D5», но планируется замена ядерных боезарядов W88 Alt 370. При этом на некоторых ПЛАРБ сохранятся БРПЛ с боезарядом малой мощности W76-2 (по американским стандартам - от 5 килотонн и меньше). Параллельно США окажут содействие Лондону в замене ядерных боезарядов на британских ПЛАРБ.
 
СЯС воздушного базирования будут представлены модернизированным тяжёлым бомбардировщиком (ТБ) B-52H, который останется в строю до 2050 года, а также новым бомбардировщиком B-21 «Рейдер» - поступит на замену стратегическому бомбардировщику B-2А. Предполагаемое общее количество самолётов B-21 - минимум 100 машин. Произойдёт и замена стоящих на вооружении крылатых ракет воздушного базирования на ракеты повышенной дальности (с ядерным боезарядом W80-4) для установки на тяжёлые бомбардировщики, которые патрулируют «в зонах ожидания нанесения удара».
 
Из состава ядерных сил воздушного базирования планируется вывести ядерный боезаряд В83-1 и КРМБ в ядерном снаряжении (сроки не указаны). Продолжатся программы замены ядерных авиабомб трёх модификаций - В61-3, В61-4 и В61-7 тактического назначения на более высокоточную корректируемую авиабомбу В61-12 с мощностью боезаряда от 0,3 до 50 килотонн. Подлежат замене и носители ядерного оружия истребители-бомбардировщики средней дальности F-15E - на F-35A, которые продолжают поступать на вооружение ряда государств-членов НАТО, а также внеблоковых стран-партнёров США. Например, F-35A, сертифицированные под доставку ядерных авиабомб, уже переданы Финляндии, которая официально пока ещё не стала членом Североатлантического альянса. Хельсинки заказали 64 такие машины и заявили о готовности разместить американское ядерное оружие на своей территории.
 
Ядерное оружие forever
 
В ядерной стратегии 2022 года оговорено, что этот документ дополняет две основополагающие национальные стратегии - национальной безопасности и обороны и подчёркивается приверженность политике эффективного ядерного сдерживания и политики «расширенного ядерного сдерживания», под которым понимается предоставление «ядерного зонтика» всем союзникам по НАТО, а также внеблоковым партнёрам США: Австралии, Израилю, Южной Корее и Японии. Впрочем, такая практика уже стала традиционной.
 
Особо подчёркивается, что никакой другой вид вооружённых сил страны не может заменить ядерное сдерживание, а стало быть, и ядерное оружие, по мнению американской стороны, предназначено «сдерживать агрессию против США, обеспечивать безопасность страны, поддержку союзников и партнёров и гарантировать успех, если сдерживание обычными средствами не будет успешным».
 
В текст стратегии также включена формулировка о возможности применения ядерного оружия в «экстремальных обстоятельствах», суть которой не раскрывается. Однако чётко прописано, что ядерное оружие сохранится в военном потенциале США и в будущем - причём, на «неопределённый период времени».
 
В ядерной стратегии-2022, и на это следует обратить особое внимание, не исключается возможность перерастания боевых действий с применением обычных вооружений в боевые действия с использованием ядерного оружия. И это принципиальный момент, поскольку все учения, которые США проводят у границ России и наших союзников, завершаются нанесением условных ядерных ударов.
 
При этом декларируется готовность продлить срок неприменения ядерного оружия, которое, как известно, не использовалось 75 лет после американских бомбардировок Хиросимы и Нагасаки. Но это очевидное лукавство, поскольку после 1945 года США как минимум трижды намеревались пустить в ход боевой атом - в конфликтах с Вьетнамом, Афганистаном и Ираком, а также в двух кризисных ситуациях с СССР и США (кубинский кризис и берлинские события).
 
Противники определены, задачи поставлены
Названы и главные противники США. Но здесь сенсаций не произошло - Китайская Народная Республика и Российская Федерация. Именно в такой последовательности.
 
Отмечается и то, что КНР, которая создала национальную стратегическую ядерную триаду, стремится повысить степени её живучести, надёжности и эффективности, целенаправленно реализует программу модернизации своих ядерных вооружений, а к концу текущего столетия Пекин якобы предполагает довести свой ядерный арсенал до тысячи ядерных боезарядов.
 
Это позволит китайской стороне, полагают в Вашингтоне, расширить опции использования ядерных сил с учётом возможного кризиса или в ходе его развития. Естественно, подробностей нет, но нетрудно догадаться, что подразумевается ситуация вокруг Тайваня.
 
Вслед за КНР даётся оценка ядерной политики России, которая прописана довольно агрессивно и в откровенно обвинительном ключе. В частности, утверждается будто в последнее время российская сторона делает упор на возможность применения ядерного оружия против Украины, хотя российское военно-политическое руководство никогда подобных заявлений не делало.
 
Тем не менее в ядерной стратегии Байдена без каких-либо доказательств утверждается, что «агрессия» России против украинского государства может привести к «преднамеренной или случайной эскалации напряжённости». И тут же следует пояснение: Россия, дескать, располагает 2000 тактических (в тексте стратегии употреблён термин «нестратегических») ядерных боезарядов, а также боезарядами на перспективных носителях, которые не засчитываются в суммарные уровни, определённые Договором СНВ-3.
 
Отметим сразу же: что касается ядерных боезарядов тактического назначения, то ни Москва, ни Вашингтон никогда не объявляли их количества, поскольку никогда не вели переговоры об ограничении или сокращении ТЯО. Были обнародованы только проценты сокращений от незаявленного общего количества таких видов вооружений.
 
Тезис о нераспространении перспективных российских носителей в контексте Договора СНВ-3, на мой взгляд, не вызывает вопросов. Но это тема для будущих переговоров по контролю над вооружениями или консультаций по укреплению стратегической стабильности. Нет никакой необходимости подставлять их под политический удар прежде времени.
 
Игра слов по-американски
 
В новом «Обзоре ядерной политики» говорится и о возможности снижения уровня боеготовности американских ядерных сил. Когда и до какого уровня - никакой конкретики. Отражена лишь общая позиция Вашингтона о «важности предотвращения ядерной войны, которая имела бы катастрофические последствия для Соединённых Штатов и всего мира». В целом звучит позитивно, но чем подкреплена такая позиция - какими политическими инициативами и военно-техническими мерами?
 
Никакой конкретики. Более того, уровень боеготовности МБР, ПЛАРБ и ТБ радикально так и не понизился. О чём, в частности, свидетельствуют масштабные ядерные учения США и НАТО, регулярные патрулирования воздушного пространства американскими тяжёлыми стратегическими бомбардировщиками вблизи границ России и КНР, практически непрерывные операции ВВС альянса с участием самолётов «двойного назначения» на рубежах применения оружия - например, операция «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» в небе балтийских государств и Польши.
 
И хотя в ядерной доктрине Байдена отмечается, что американская сторона хотела бы уменьшить решимость противников первыми нанести ядерный удар по США, со своей стороны Белый дом такой вариант не исключает. И, насколько можно судить, не собирается отказываться от применения ядерного оружия первым. Так что мирные инициативы США - игра слов, и не более.
 
При этом в ядерной стратегии-2022 чётко зафиксировано положение о необходимости повышения надёжности ядерного потенциала Североатлантического союза и более тесного взаимодействия СЯС США с ядерными силами Великобритании и Франции. Отмечается, что боеготовность самолётов «двойного назначения» и возможность применения новых авиабомб В61-12, которые хранятся в зонах передового базирования, не должна снижаться.
 
Таким образом, отказ США вывезти тактическое оружие из Европы и Азии и демонтировать элементы глобальной системы ПРО на этих континентах не даёт оснований к возможности диалога с Соединёнными Штатами о взаимном и проверяемом контроле над вооружениями. Это нереально, а с точки обеспечения национальной обороны и безопасности России просто опасно.
 
Двойное толкование
 
Немудрено, что благоприятные перспективы на этом направлении даже не просматриваются. Что ещё раньше показал ответ США и НАТО на российские предложения по укреплению взаимных гарантий безопасности, переданных нашим оппонентам в декабре прошлого года. Кроме того, в разделе о контроле над ядерными вооружениями есть очевидные противоречия.
 
Например, провозглашается, будто Соединённые Штаты имеют желание в глобальном масштабе «снизить опору на ядерные вооружения и уменьшить их роль в стратегии страны». Но практические инициативы при этом не выдвигаются. Или такой момент: с одной стороны, в документе содержится положение о продолжении контактов с другими ядерными государствами по контролю над ядерными вооружениями, а с другой, в ядерную стратегию включены оговорки - «по возможности», «только на основе взаимности», «при наличии доверия», «с целью снижения ядерных рисков»...
 
Не много ли оговорок? Хотя под предлогом «обеспечения национальных интересов» чего не скажешь...
 
А о чём, например, говорит формулировка «сдерживание России в применении ограниченного ядерного оружия в каком-либо региональном конфликте является высшим приоритетом США и НАТО»? Интересно, «сдерживание» какими средствами?
 
И на этом фоне повторяется предложение Джозефа Байдена Москве начать переговоры по Договору СНВ-4 (срок продления СНВ-3 завершится в феврале 2026 года). Вот здесь обновлённая ядерная стратегия США и приоткрыла завесу, скрывающую суть такой инициативы: за столом переговоров американская сторона намерена добиваться «выбивания» из российского ядерного арсенала наиболее перспективных видов вооружений - ядерных и обычных.
 
И ещё. Как и при Дональде Трампе, американская сторона намерена вовлечь в переговорный процесс по контролю над ядерными вооружениями КНР. Но как это увязывается с намерениями США усилить свой ракетно-ядерный потенциал в Индо-Тихоокеанском регионе? Вопрос, что называется, на засыпку.
 
Что же в «сухом остатке»? Совершенно очевидно, что новая ядерная стратегия США зафиксировала расширенные амбиции нынешнего американского военно-политического руководства в деле модернизации и возможного применения ракетно-ядерных сил страны. И намерение американцев сделать всё возможное, чтобы максимально уменьшить ядерные потенциалы государств, которые США записали в противники - это Россия и Китай.
 
Вряд ли на таких позициях можно найти консенсус. 
 
 
Источник: Еженедельник «ЗВЕЗДА»
 
 

В.П. Козин: США уже давно отправляют снаряды с обедненным ураном Киеву

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе "Лабиринт Карнаухова" на канале СоловьевLIVE.

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В.П. Козин: Ядерные державы наращивают вооружения

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе "Время Голованова" на канале СоловьёвLIVE.

Эфир от 12 июня 2023г.

ВВС НАТО провоцируют на Балтике «Карибский кризис 2.0»

Уже почти 18 лет у рубежей России продолжается весьма опасная и дестабилизирующая военная акция, которая напоминает по своей сути Карибский кризис 1962 года. Речь идёт об операции ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» (БВП), которая в документах альянса в оригинале именуется как Baltic Air Policing.

Когда и десять минут не спасут

Решение о проведении патрулирования было принято на заседании Североатлантического совета 17 марта 2004 года под предлогом «защиты воздушного пространства государств Балтии». Спустя почти две недели после принятия этого решения в небе трёх балтийских государств - Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии, которые вступили в Североатлантический союз в качестве полноправных членов в том же 2004 году, на ротационной основе появились первые натовские боевые самолёты средней дальности.

Операция стала осуществляться круглогодично, но вначале с вылетом боевых самолётов на несколько часов в сутки в дневное время. Затем время их нахождения в воздухе было доведено до круглосуточного. Впоследствии в зону её проведения, которая охватывает воздушное пространство трёх названных сателлитов США по трансатлантическому альянсу и часть неба над Балтийским морем, было включено и воздушное пространство Польши, ставшей членом альянса несколько раньше, а именно в 1999 году.

Половина из тридцати входящих в настоящее время в альянс государств предоставили в эту военно-воздушную операцию НАТО свои истребители и истребители-бомбардировщики различных типов, самолёты-заправщики и разведывательную авиацию. На основе ротации в ней стали участвовать боевые самолёты ВВС Бельгии, Великобритании, Венгрии, Дании, Испании, Италии, Нидерландов, Норвегии, Польши, Португалии, Румынии, США, Турции, Франции и ФРГ.

Стратегическое руководство операцией осуществляется Верховным главнокомандующим вооружёнными силами НАТО в Европе. Воздушно-диспетчерскими функциями в ней занимается Центр совместных операций ВВС Североатлантического союза, расположенный в Удеме (ФРГ). Принимающие в ней участие истребители и истребители-бомбардировщики одновременно входят в группировку ВВС НАТО «Готовность к быстрому реагированию» (Quick Reaction Alert), которая может быть поднята в воздух, как утверждают в альянсе, в пределах десяти минут.

Операция НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование»

Ещё 14 июня 2016 года тогдашний заместитель генерального секретаря НАТО американец Александр Вершбоу встретился с министрами обороны Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии, чтобы подписать новое соглашение о механизмах организации использования воздушного пространства в поддержку БВП. Во время церемонии он подчеркнул, что подписанный документ будет способствовать «расширению возможностей для подготовки к действиям в воздушном пространстве Балтийского региона». Возникает вопрос: для подготовки к каким «действиям»? Тогдашний заместитель генерального секретаря трансатлантического союза также добавил, что соглашение направляет «чёткий сигнал об общей ответственности и решимости Североатлантического союза защищать территорию и население стран НАТО». Защищать от кого? Уточнения не последовало.

Ни моря, ни неба

В соответствии с новой Стратегией объединённых ВВС НАТО (NATO’s Joint Air Power Strategy), одобренной 26 июня 2018 года, военно-воздушные силы входящих в него государств должны иметь возможность действовать «в любом пространстве и в любых условиях», в том числе в высокозащищённом воздушном пространстве и в зонах интенсивного воздушного движения. Балтийский регион подпал под такую трактовку, предложенную штаб-квартирой блока в Брюсселе.

В его официальных документах стратегического характера обосновывается, что круглосуточная защита воздушного пространства государств Балтии вызвана тем, что они не имеют достаточного количества боевых самолётов, которые могли бы выполнять подобную задачу. Вместе с тем, особенности проведения операции БВП свидетельствует о том, что в процессе её проведения ставятся наступательные боевые задачи широкого спектра, чем просто обозначены оборонительные функции.

Как было объявлено на саммите НАТО, состоявшемся в июле 2018 года в бельгийской столице, в рамках блока была согласована стратегия использования объединённого потенциала ВВС альянса, которая станет ключевой установкой при проведении полётов ударной авиации блока. Эта стратегия распространена и на операцию БВП.

Участники операции НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование»

К большому удивлению, некоторые российские специалисты, не знакомые с её ключевым предназначением, неправильно переводят её название с английского языка на русский как «Балтийская воздушная полицейская миссия». Но современные истребители-бомбардировщики, в том числе те, которые способны нести ядерное оружие, не могут выполнять «полицейские» функции.

Боевые самолёты названных государств альянса «трансатлантической солидарности» имеют целый ряд боевых задач. Они активно используют не только воздушное пространство Латвии, Литвы, Эстонии и Польши, но и их военно-воздушные базы (ВВБ), в том числе латвийскую Лиелварде, литовскую Зокняй, эстонскую Эмари и польскую Ласк.

Все эти авиабазы после вхождения в альянс Польши и трёх государств Балтии прошли основательную модернизацию, после которой они приобрели характеристики многофункционального использования. Они могут принимать любые современные истребители и истребители-бомбардировщики, а также американские тяжёлые стратегические бомбардировщики В-1В, В-52Н и В-2А межконтинентальной дальности. Все они, получившие постоянное право останавливаться на ВВБ Фэрфорд в качестве промежуточного аэродрома в Великобритании, уже несколько лет назад стали отрабатывать полёты над Европой и посадку на авиабазе Эмари.

Когда взятки гладки

Как отмечалось в информационном сообщении пресс-службы НАТО в марте 2019 года, американские стратегические ядерные силы направили тогда в Великобританию сразу шесть тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков B-52Н. Было объявлено, что это сделано «для проведения серии учебных полётов над Европой». Но что скрывалось за такими «полётами», стало ясно чуть позже. В конце того же года один из бомбардировщиков - носитель ядерного оружия США произвёл учебные ракетные стрельбы и бомбометание с условными ядерными боезарядами по литовскому полигону, расположенному всего в 60 км от литовско-российской границы, проходящей по реке Неман, то есть недалеко от Калининградской области.

Как видно из представленного списка стран-участниц операции БВП свои военно-воздушные единицы выделили все три ядерные державы Запада - Великобритания, США и Франция. Они стали стабильно использовать в ней свои истребители-бомбардировщики «двойного назначения», способные нести на борту не только обычные виды вооружений, но и ядерные вооружения в виде авиабомб свободного падения.

Отдельные виды таких авиабомб ранних разработок превосходят мощность ядерных боезарядов некоторых американских стратегических МБР. А новая ядерная авиабомба США В-61-12, которая появится в Европе уже в мае этого года, имеет максимальную мощность 50 килотонн.

Комментируя в беседе со мной в 2019 году возникшую ситуацию с появлением американских тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков в Балтийском регионе, один из депутатов латвийского парламента пытался перевести разговор в другое русло, заявив, что Пентагон не возводит специальных хранилищ под размещение американского ядерного оружия в Латвии. Вполне может быть, что действительно не строит, но это не означает, что на борту обозначенных средств доставки ядерного оружия, принадлежащих Соединённым Штатам, его нет и в помине. Для этого не требуется строить огромное хранилище. Одновременно нельзя утверждать, что такое оружие не может быть установлено на борт натовских самолётов, так как никаких военно-технических инспекций по этому поводу Российская Федерация никогда не проводила и не проводит до сих пор. Дело в том, что в силу отсутствия такой договорённости как с Вашингтоном, так и со столицами всех трёх государств Балтии и Польши такие инспекции просто невозможны.

Комбинированная угроза

Почему же операция ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» вначале материала названа как «весьма опасная и дестабилизирующая»? Она может квалифицироваться таковой по ряду причин.

Очевидно, что эта военно-воздушная группировка дополняет многонациональные сухопутные боевые группы «передового базирования» Североатлантического союза, которые созданы на территории четырёх государств восточной зоны Балтийского моря, а также ВМС альянса, развёрнутые в водах Балтики на постоянной и ротационной основе. Дополняет она и комбинированные оборонительно-наступательные средства на оперативной базе ПРО США под Редзиково, что недалеко от польского Слупска, которые скоро будут установлены и приведены в состояние боевой готовности. Похоже, что в этом году.

Операция БВП носит не совсем открытый характер. Североатлантический союз отказался использовать самолётами альянса транспондеры, то есть автоматические системы, позволяющие пилотам боевых самолётов определять, какой самолёт находится в зоне действия его локаторов - «свой» или «чужой». Российская сторона в принципе согласилась с предложением нынешнего финского президента включать такую аппаратуру российскими и натовскими самолётами на основе взаимности. Но государства-участники Североатлантического пакта встретили эту инициативу категорическим отказом.

С точки зрения интересов укрепления национальной безопасности России, следует принять во внимание и другое обстоятельство.

Это - бесспорное наличие в операции БВП ядерного фактора, который был заложен в неё с момента принятия. Если бы такой фактор не интересовал Североатлантический союз, то он не направлял бы для участия в ней современные боевые самолёты «двойного назначения», сертифицированные под доставку ядерного оружия. Тем более, что «зона ответственности» такой операции охватывает не только воздушную среду над названными тремя государствами Балтии и Польши, но и значительную часть воздушного пространства, которое простирается над акваторией Балтийского моря, прилегающей к территории Калининградской и Ленинградской областей.

Назвав развёртывание самолётов-носителей ядерного оружия Североатлантического союза «плановым», его официальный представитель Оана Лунгеску в 2020 году признала, что «это свидетельствует о том, что американский ядерный зонтик защищает Европу и демонстрирует уникальный потенциал, который США могут перебросить в Европу в кризисной ситуации». Итак, обозначен реальный «ядерный зонтик», а не некое рутинное «воздушное патрулирование» или «полицейская миссия ВВС».

Такой потенциальный ядерный компонент в операции БВП альянса вполне можно расценивать как «Балтийский ядерный кризис» или «Карибский кризис № 2», если учесть реально созданный Соединёнными Штатами «Карибский кризис № 1» в октябре 1962 года после размещения ядерных ракет средней дальности мегатонного класса в Италии и Турции.

Ядерный компонент - это наиболее опасная составная часть операции БВП, который не может не учитываться в стратегическом военном планировании России.

Масштабы наращивания БВП

В свете усиления подготовки масштабной вооружённой агрессии Украины против Донбасса в 2021-2022 годы, которую открыто поддержали многие натовские страны, военно-политическое руководство НАТО приняло деструктивное решение: значительно усилить группировку ВВС альянса при проведении операции «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», а также расширить набор её боевых задач. С учётом дополнительно направленных боевых самолётов для участия в ней, их потенциал в начале февраля этого года по сравнению с 2014 годом увеличился в четыре раза. Ясно, что «украинский вопрос», раздутый альянсом, был использован только как предлог.

Принципиально важно отметить: натовское авиасоединение в балтийском регионе наращивается за счёт направления именно самолётов «двойного назначения», а не только самолётов-разведчиков.

По данным «Вашингтон пост» и «Файнэншл таймс», в начале этого года самолёты F-35 и  Eurofighter Typhoon в Эстонию направила Италия, а также F-16 - Бельгия. На авиабазы Ласк (Польша) и Эмари (Эстония) перегнали десять самолётов F-16 Соединённые Штаты, а польские ВВС в свою очередь перебросили собственные F-16 в Литву. Истребители-бомбардировщики F-16 и F-35 в Эстонию и Литву отрядили Дания и Норвегия.

Цель перегона такой авиационной группировки не скрывается. Всё это делается для усиления операции «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование». В военно-политически кругах альянса утверждается, что такое усиление операции БВП дополнительными самолётами «двойного назначения» сохранится на неопределённое время.

Вопрос ребром

Представляется, что именно по всем названным причинам российской стороне необходимо постоянно ставить перед США и остальными государствами Североатлантического союза, которые принимают в указанной операции активное участие, вопрос о полном прекращении патрулирования воздушного пространства стран Балтии и зоны Балтийского моря боевыми самолётами альянса «двойного назначения», а также американской ядерной стратегической авиацией.

На прекращение этой активности было направлено требование России о снижении потенциала военной машины НАТО в Европе до уровня 1997 года. Такое положение содержалось в четвёртой статье проекта соглашения о безопасности между Россией и альянсом, переданном в середине декабря прошлого года. Но оно было отвергнуто Вашингтоном и Североатлантическим блоком в полном объёме в их официальных ответах Москве 26 января. Её сокращение или прекращение в этих ответах вообще не упоминается

К сожалению, вопрос о полном прекращении операции БВП в других российских заявлениях по контролю над вооружениями практически не ставится. Она подвергается лишь ограниченной критике.

Постановка вопроса с российской стороны о полном прекращении операции «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» ВВС НАТО должна быть последовательно-активной и постоянной, а также увязываться с другими опасными военно-техническими действиями Североатлантического военного союза вблизи российских рубежей.

Такое требование также должно фигурировать в качестве балансирующего контраргумента в ответ на настойчивые требования США и НАТО, чтобы Россия в одностороннем порядке сократила определённые виды своих вооружений и снизила военную деятельность на своей территории до нулевой отметки, в том числе в районе Балтики. В частности, в зоне Калининградской и Ленинградской областей. Но при одновременном наращивании натовских ударных сил передового базирования в непосредственной близости от них. То есть по схеме, рассчитанной на простаков.

Подобное требование российской стороны одновременно должно быть повторено при радикальной постановке вопроса о полном выводе американского тактического ядерного оружия из Европы и Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона.

Автор: Владимир Козин, член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН. Источник: Еженедельник “Звезда”

ВОЙНА С ТРИМОРЬЕМ: РОССИИ ПРИДЁТСЯ ОТВЕТИТЬ НА ВЫЗОВ, КАКОГО НЕ БЫЛО СО ВРЕМЁН ПЕТРА ВЕЛИКОГО

Запад сходит с ума. Несколько лет назад президент Франции заявил, что у НАТО умер мозг; Британия на наших глазах начала гибридную войну против Германии и всей континентальной Европы. Параллельно идёт формирование новых геополитических игроков. И одним из них может стать объединённая Восточная Европа.

Начав военную операцию против русофобской Украины, Россия столкнулась с объединённым ответом всего западного мира. Всего две страны Старого Света – Сербия и Венгрия – заняли открыто пророссийскую позицию; остальные с разной степенью интенсивности поддерживают Украину. Одним из лидеров русофобского движения, как и следовало ожидать, стала Польша – страна со старыми счётами к русскому миру, мучимая фантомными болями по поводу утраченного могущества. При этом именно Польша имеет наибольшие шансы стать главным бенефициаром грядущего распада и раздела Украины. Насколько далеко простираются польские амбиции и почему их удовлетворение закладывает фундамент под новую большую войну в Европе? Об этом Царьград поговорил с членом-корреспондентом Российской Академии естественных наук и Академии военных наук России Владимиром Козиным.

Царьград: Польша явно готовится к возвращению территорий, входивших в её состав до Второй мировой, так называемых "восточных кресов". Как вы считаете, что может стать для Варшавы сигналом к тому, что момент настал и теперь можно?

Владимир Козин: Можно предположить, что такой сигнал для нынешнего польского руководства поступит.

Во-первых, когда нынешний киевский режим перестанет оказывать вооружённое сопротивление союзным вооружённым силам России, ДНР и ЛНР;

Во-вторых, если нынешний украинский президент покинет Украину, добровольно отказавшись от своей должности, или если он будет отрешён от неё по каким-то причинам.

Ну и, в-третьих, если Россия и союзные с ней два названных государства в Донбассе не сделают чёткого заявления о недопустимости какого-то аншлюса любой части Украины со стороны любого государства НАТО под любым предлогом.

 

 

 

– Исторически "восточные кресы" входили в состав Речи Посполитой. Может, и Бог с ними, пусть забирают? В конце концов почему мы должны быть против поглощения Галичины (родины бандеровщины и звериной русофобии) поляками?

В.К.: Может возникнуть новый очаг напряжённости в этой части Европы в качественно ином измерении, чем нынешняя ситуация, когда Украина начала свою третью по счёту масштабную агрессию против жителей Донбасса, не являясь полноправным членом Североатлантического союза. То есть может возникнуть вооружённое противостояние России, а также ДНР и ЛНР уже натовским государствам. Этого развития событий никоим образом нельзя допустить.

– У поляков давние счёты с западными украинцами. Как правило, в этом контексте вспоминаются события Волынской резни. Но галицийское крестьянство и в XIX веке, ещё будучи в подданстве Австро-Венгрии, резало поляков при любом удобном случае. То есть конфликт у них настоявшийся, с хорошей многовековой выдержкой. После присоединения западных территорий к Польше, если таковое произойдёт, как там будут развиваться события? Стороны сольются в радостном экстазе совместной борьбы с русской угрозой или же поляки займутся денацификацией новых соотечественников?

В.К.: Наиболее вероятным представляется первый сценарий.

– Если Россия не будет останавливать, как далеко готова зайти Польша? За Львовом и Тернополем заберут Одессу? Сформируют военно-гражданскую администрацию в Киеве? Как далеко готовы идти поляки, если не упрутся лбом в русский танк?

В.К.: Скорее всего, Варшава пойдёт по пути захвата как можно большего территориального пространства на Украине. Конкретные исторические примеры свидетельствуют, что поляки уже не раз пытались присоединить к себе чужие земли вооружённым путём.

– Польша не действует сама по себе. Как вы отметили, она часть НАТО. Но само НАТО далеко не едино. Для той же Германии развитие и углубление конфликта с Россией – это потеря дешёвых энергоносителей и обрушение промышленности; для какой-нибудь Италии – от конфликта с нами тоже одни убытки. Кто является главными спонсорами и кураторами Польши в её нынешней политике?

В.К.: Думаю, что главными спонсорами имперских амбиций Польши являются США и Великобритания, которые уже давно создали в лице Польши государство со стабильной и неизменной политикой махровой русофобии.

– И поэтому они так стремятся поучаствовать в поставке американских дальнобойных РСЗО Украине?

В.К.: И не только. Эти же амбиции толкают Варшаву на участие в программе ВВС НАТО "Балтийское воздушное патрулирование" с предоставлением своих боевых самолётов для участия в ней и своего воздушного пространства самолётам двойного назначения этого военного блока, то есть способным нести как обычные, так и ядерные боезаряды. В соответствии с теми же соображениями Варшава даёт право тяжёлым стратегическим самолётам ВВС США, сертифицированным под доставку СНВ (стратегических наступательных вооружений – прим. Царьграда), пересекать своё воздушное пространство при движении в сторону России. Теми же соображениями Польша руководствовалась при выдаче согласия на строительство оперативной базы ПРО США в Редзиково, на севере страны, которая будет оснащена не только оборонительными, но и наступательными видами вооружений, направленными на нашу страну. Во всех перечисленных случаях в линии Варшавы маячит один и тот же стратегический мотив: создание непосредственной угрозы для России в целом и для русского эксклава на Балтике – её Калининградской области, а также для республики Беларусь, к территории которой Польша имеет территориальные притязания. Что касается её причастности к поставкам РСЗО США повышенной дальности, то при их транзите через польскую территорию она вполне может заменить одну такую систему с дальностью стрельбы до 80 км на более дальнобойную, способную наносить удары на 300 км.

– Хорошо. Текущая враждебность Польши не вызывает сомнений. Давайте немного отвлечёмся и посмотрим в перспективу. Сейчас польскому обществу, элитам, интеллигенции и рядовому обывателю очень нравится идея возрождения Речи Посполитой, государства, простиравшегося "от моря до моря". В современном варианте это концепция "Междуморья" (Intermarium), которую предполагается реализовать путём партнёрских программ с участием 12 государств. Под её претворение в жизнь создана и работает "Балто-Адриато-Черноморская инициатива" (БАЧИ), она же – "Инициатива трёх морей", известная также как Триморье. Насколько реален и опасен этот вызов?

 

 

 

 

В.К.: В нынешних условиях, а также в более отдалённой перспективе реализация инициативы под названием "Триморье" выглядит невозможной ввиду глубоких противоречий, которые существуют и будут существовать между потенциальными участниками названного проекта.

– Если всё же допустить, что проект будет реализован, – в конце концов, за исключением Венгрии, восточноевропейские страны не так уж сильно цепляются за свой суверенитет, и если большим дядям в Вашингтоне и Лондоне очень понадобится, то все они "прогнутся". Тем более что экономические выгоды от такого сотрудничества вполне реальны. В свете этой возможности – не получается ли так, что чем успешнее действует Польша сейчас, тем больше оснований у Москвы поставить её в очередь на демилитаризацию в среднесрочной перспективе?

В.К.: Россия не в состоянии осуществить демилитаризацию всех государств-членов НАТО, и она не ставит перед собой таких задач. Но укреплять свою обороноспособность перед военной угрозой трансатлантического альянса в виде его комбинированных сил передового базирования, куда входят его ракетно-ядерные силы, противоракетные системы и силы общего назначения, Россия обязана самым эффективным образом.

Делаем выводы

Мы живём в эпоху геополитических сдвигов эпохального масштаба. Единый Запад расколот, пути Евросоюза и США чем дальше, тем больше расходятся, Великобритания фактически ведёт гибридную войну против континентальной Европы, используя в качестве инструмента для удушения немецкой экономики антироссийские санкции. Сама Россия пытается вырваться из геополитического угла, куда её загнали в результате крушения СССР.

Слом старых структур и блоков сопровождается строительством новых. В рамках этого процесса восточноевропейские страны впервые за много столетий получили шанс превратиться из прихожей западной цивилизации и вечно страдающей прокладки между Россией и настоящей Европой в реально значимого геополитического игрока, имеющего собственный вес, уникальные возможности и органично вписанного в геополитические расклады мировых центров сил. Реализуется этот сценарий или нет – вопрос дискуссионный. Однако то, что над его претворением в жизнь работают, – очевидно.

Формирование дееспособного Триморья станет большой геоэкономической проблемой для России, Китая и континентальных западноевропейских государств. Новая структура, просто в силу географического положения, постарается установить жёсткий контроль над транзитом китайских товаров и ресурсов из России. В современной системе мирового распределения труда Европа является одним из двух главных производителей высоких технологий и наукоёмкой продукции, Россия – крупнейшим экспортёром сырья, а Китай – главным производителем товаров широкого потребления. Посадив на транспортные пути между ними организацию, заинтересованную в получении ренты с транзитных потоков, Великобритания и Штаты получат эффективный инструмент контроля над евразийской трансконтинентальной торговлей и, соответственно, европейской промышленностью, а опосредованно – и над перетоком европейских технологий в Россию и КНР.

Для нашей страны реализация этого сценария будет означать возвращение к ситуации начала царствования Петра Великого. Москве придётся или снова силой оружия прорубать окно в Европу, или прилагать неимоверные усилия для развития собственных высокотехнологичных отраслей, нивелируя ценность экономического взаимодействия с европейскими странами, и в первую очередь с немецкой промышленностью. И именно этот выбор будет определять парадигму, в рамках которой будут развиваться события в ближайшие 10–15 лет.

Источник: Царьград

 

Вашингтон вновь примеряется к «ядерной дубинке»

Об этом свидетельствуют сообщения о новой стратегии США

11 января этого года американское интернет-издание «Хаффингтон пост» разместило неофициальный и ещё не утверждённый текст несекретной части новой ракетно-ядерной стратегии США. Она призвана заменить прежнюю ядерную стратегическую установку Барака Обамы, принятую в 2010 году.

Хотя представители министерства обороны США поспешили заявить, что документ, получивший название «Обзор ядерной политики», может ещё подвергнуться некоторой корректировке, многие эксперты начали его изучение. При этом некоторые из них уже пришли к выводу, что новая ядерная доктрина США в том виде, в котором она опубликована, носит ярко выраженный агрессивный характер. И с такой оценкой трудно не согласиться.

Из названного документа прежде всего следует, что США намерены иметь «гибкую и тщательно отработанную ядерную стратегию», позволяющую сдерживать одного или нескольких потенциальных противников при различных обстоятельствах. При этом оговорено, что применение ядерного оружия президентами Соединённых Штатов может быть вызвано только самыми чрезвычайными обстоятельствами. Причём это может быть сделано как для защиты нации, так и для защиты союзников и партнёров даже от ограниченного применения ядерного оружия каким-то противником и от его нападения с использованием обычных видов вооружений.

С целью повышения способности наносить ядерные удары обращено особое внимание на укрепление средств разведки и связи космического базирования. Также зафиксировано положение о модернизации американской системы контроля и управления ядерным арсеналом страны, Пентагону предписано продолжать размещать стратегические и тактические ядерные арсеналы в зонах «передового базирования». Опора Вашингтона на ядерные силы не ограничивается никакими временными рамками.

В документе подчёркивается, что Вашингтон сохранит ранее подписанные соглашения о «совместных ядерных миссиях» с союзниками США по НАТО. Это означает, что американские ядерные вооружения останутся на территориях союзников по альянсу. Сохранится неизменной и особая ядерная политика Североатлантического союза, в котором участвуют три ядерные державы и ещё пять размещают на своей территории ядерные бое¬заряды США.

США сохранят традиционную стратегическую ядерную триаду и носители ядерного оружия, включая самолёты «двойного назначения». Подтверждены планы о создании принципиально новой стратегической ядерной триады.

Новая ядерная стратегия подтверждает прежние заявления Вашингтона о возможности применения ядерных боезарядов малой мощности – первоначально с установкой их на баллистических ракетах, а впоследствии и на крылатых ракетах атомных подводных лодок. Здесь же надо учесть, что Пентагон уже давно перевооружил четыре ПЛАРБ в ПЛАРК, то есть оснащённые в общей сложности 616 КРМБ, которые, как утверждалось, имеют неядерный боезаряд.

Не приведёт к стратегической стабильности и внушительный план замены ядерных боезарядов на их новые варианты. Заявлено, что в 2020 году на вооружение поступит новая ядерная авиабомба В-61-12, которая, как известно, будет иметь высокий коэффициент кругового вероятного отклонения от целей.

Автор:  Владимир Козин, Источник: “Красная звезда”

Вашингтон должен ответственно подходить к ядерному оружию

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ, член-корреспондент РАЕН, профессор РАВН В.П Козин выступил на международном Симпозиуме по проблемам безопасности в Афинах 1 декабря с докладом «Ключевые неразрешенные проблемы в сфере оружия массового поражения» («Key unresolved issues in the WMD sphere») и распространил материал «Russia’s role in tackling current and potential security threats in the Middle East and North Africa region» («Роль России в разрешении текущих и потенциальных угроз безопасности в районе Ближнего Востока и Северной Африки»), в котором были использованы данные об итогах операции российских ВКС в САР, изложенные Первым заместителем Министра обороны-начальником Генерального штаба Вооруженных Сил России генералом армии В.В. Герасимовым 7 ноября 2017 года.

Одновременно была проведена презентация недавно опубликованной Белой книги «Перспективы Договора о ликвидации РСМД», которая содержит критические замечания в адрес Вашингтона, который уже давно и неоднократно нарушал названный договорный акт (с 2001 года он 92 раза допустил такие нарушения при использовании ракет-мишеней средней и меньшей дальности, запрещенных им, при проверке эффективности глобальной системы ПРО США и их союзников).

Вашингтон и Москва: два подхода к контролю над вооружениями

Специальный представитель президента США по контролю над вооружениями Маршалл Биллингсли, назначенный на эту должность 10 апреля этого года, сделал ряд публичных заявлений, в которых обвинил Россию в нарушении, как он выразился, «почти всех договоров» в области контроля над вооружениями, подписанных ранее с американской стороной, а также «в понижении порога применения ядерного оружия»

План «Маршалла»

Хотя таких действующих договорных актов в мире насчитывается свыше  десятка, этот «специалист» по контролю над вооружениями, доселе не имевший никакого опыта в названной сфере, упомянул только две двусторонние договорённости, заключённые между Вашингтоном и Москвой, а также два многосторонних договорных акта, якобы нарушенные российской стороной. В их числе были названы: Договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД), двусторонние добровольные российско-американские «президентские инициативы» 1991-1992 годов, Конвенция о запрещении химического оружия (КЗХО) и Договор об обычных вооружённых силах в Европе (ДОВСЕ).

То есть никаких «почти всех договоров» в этом списке и не набралось. А только четыре.

Этот высокопоставленный представитель США также обвинил Россию в принятии «крайне провокационной» ядерной доктрины, очевидно, имея в виду одобренный в июне текущего года документ «Об Основах государственной политики Российской Федерации в области ядерного сдерживания», которая, по его словам, якобы подразумевает применение ядерного оружия в рамках «эскалации ради победы».

Он подверг критике и сохранение в России тактического ядерного оружия, словно его нет в американском ядерном арсенале и как будто Москва ни разу не ставила вопрос о его полном выводе из Европы, где Пентагон развернул его почти 70 лет тому назад. Сразу же заметим: российское ядерное оружие тактического назначения за пределами России уже давно не размещается. К середине 1990-х годов оно было полностью и безвозвратно вывезено из Белоруссии, Казахстана и Украины на российскую территорию.

Маршалл Биллингсли, который ранее приглянулся президенту Дональду Трампу и как сторонник введения жёстких торгово-экономических санкций в отношении России, и как «специалист по борьбе с терроризмом», одновременно обвинил Москву в регулярном проведении военных учений, в ходе которых якобы отрабатывается условное применение тактического ядерного оружия против европейских государств-членов НАТО. Но доказательств этого он так и не привёл.

С другой стороны, широко известно, что Соединённые Штаты уже давно перешли на проведение комбинированных военных учений, которые начинаются с использования обычных видов вооружений, а затем постепенно трансформируются в военные учения с условным применением не только тактического, но и стратегического ядерного оружия в отношении России и стран, входящих в Организацию Договора о коллективной безопасности. Были зафиксированы случаи неоднократного появления американских тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков, сертифицированных под доставку ядерного оружия, недалеко от российских рубежей на Дальнем Востоке, а также в районах Баренцева, Балтийского и Чёрного морей.

Что касается ДРСМД, то не Россия, а именно США за последние 20 лет до его денонсации в августе 2019 года нарушили этот договор 117 раз, когда при проверке эффективности глобальной системы ПРО они реально использовали в качестве ракет-мишеней ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, запрещённые этим договорным актом. Нарушений этого договора российской стороной не было. А российская ракета 9М729, на которую ссылаются в Пентагоне как на «ракету-нарушитель», никак не подпадала и не подпадает под определения этой договорённости, поскольку не входила и не входит в параметры ракет даже меньшей дальности с дальностью стрельбы от 500 до 1.000 км.

Российская Федерация полностью выполнила «президентские инициативы» 1991-1992 годов: она добровольно, вне всякого переговорного процесса на три четверти сократила количество своих тактических ядерных боезарядов. Оставляя в Европе ядерное оружие тактического назначения, США сами нарушили смысл своей собственной «президентской инициативы» Джорджа Буша-старшего, выдвинутой им в 1991-1992 годы.

Дональд Трамп твёрдо заявил, что не будет обсуждать с Россией проблематику ПРО.

Бездоказательные обвинения

Новоявленный специальный представитель президента США по контролю над вооружениями упомянул о «причастности» России к «несоблюдению» КЗХО в связи с отравлениями отца и дочери Скрипалей в английском городке Солсбери в 2018 году неким нервно-паралитическим веществом «Новичок», который не производится в России. Российская сторона вообще не имела к этому эпизоду никакого отношения, поскольку к отравлению Сергея и Юлии Скрипаль были причастны британские или американские спецслужбы, которые могли использовать отравляющее вещество, скорее всего, произведённое в секретной химической лаборатории в британском городе Порт-он-Даун, что недалеко от Солсбери.

Что же касается названной международной конвенции по химическому оружию, то именно Вашингтон в нарушение её уже не раз снабжал террористов, действующих на сирийской территории, некоторыми видами боевых отравляющих веществ, а также приостановил ликвидацию огромных запасов собственного химического оружия, несмотря на ранее взятые на себя обязательства, ссылаясь на отсутствие денежных средств на его утилизацию.

Что касается ДОВСЕ, то американская сторона и остальные участники этой договорённости, входящие в военный блок НАТО, вообще отказались ратифицировать Соглашение о его адаптации 1999 года - в отличие от России, которая сделала это. Именно по вине западных участников эта договорённость так и не стала реальностью.

Затронув тему «понижения порога применения ядерного оружия» российской стороной, Маршалл Биллингсли не привёл никаких конкретных доказательств по этому поводу. Таковые просто отсутствуют. Их нет ни в «ядерном разделе» действующей Военной доктрины России 2014 года. Нет их и в упоминавшихся Основах её государственной политики в области ядерного сдерживания 2020 года.

В частности, в последнем документе указано, что применение ядерного оружия Российской Федерацией является крайним и вынужденным средством. Это может произойти только в ответ на определённые враждебные действия потенциального противника, когда он применит против  России и (или) её союзников ядерное оружие и другие виды оружия массового поражения, а также в случае совершения агрессии против неё с применением обычного оружия, «когда под угрозу поставлено само существование государства».

Об определённой открытости российской стороны в плане потенциального использования ядерного оружия говорит положение Основ её государственной политики в области ядерного сдерживания о том, что президент страны может при необходимости проинформировать военно-политическое руководство других государств и международные организации о готовности российской стороны применить ядерное оружие, то есть ещё до его применения, или о принятом решении о его применении. Разве это понижение порога применения ядерного оружия? Такое положение свидетельствует о том, что Москва ещё не раз подумает, прежде чем нажать кнопку «пуск» собственных ракетно-ядерных средств.

В связи с изложенными обстоятельствами уместен вопрос и к американской стороне: а как она в настоящее время относится к проблеме обеспечения контроля над вооружениями в целом и к 13 двусторонним и многосторонним договорным актам в этой сфере в частности?

Белый дом стал рекордсменом по уничтожению договоров

Если говорить о восприятии такой проблемы в общем, то нынешняя администрация США демонстрирует к ней крайне отрицательное отношение. Она в одностороннем порядке вышла из иранской ядерной сделки, денонсировала ДРСМД и международный Договор о торговле оружием, объявила о готовности выйти из Договора по открытому небу, напрочь отказалась ратифицировать Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний и проявляет явное нежелание продлить срок действия Договора о сокращении СНВ (Договор СНВ-3).

Одновременно администрация Дональда Трампа не желает распространить положения российско-американского Соглашения о предотвращении инцидентов в открытом море за внешним пределом территориальных вод и в воздушном пространстве над ним на подводные лодки сторон, находящиеся в подводном положении. Это предложение российской стороны призвано исключить возможные столкновения субмарин сторон в погружённом состоянии, что имело место по вине Пентагона, который ранее направлял свои подводные ракетоносцы и ударные подводные лодки в зону боевой подготовки российского Северного флота.

Республиканская администрация Соединённых Штатов также не хочет слышать о возможности подписания Договора о европейской безопасности и Договора о предотвращении размещения оружия в космосе, оба проекта которых уже давно подготовлены и доведены до мировой общественности.

Этот список вполне даёт основания включить президента США Дональда Трампа в «Книгу рекордов Гиннесса» как своеобразного рекордсмена по уничтожению договоров в сфере контроля над вооружениями. Поскольку ни один американский президент не разрушил столько международных договорённостей в названной в области, сколько разорвал нынешний республиканский президент за первый четырёхлетний срок своего правления.

Принятая в 2018 году новая американская ядерная стратегия действительно понизила порог применения ядерного оружия США. Причём, резко. Иными словами, она повысила шансы и условия его использования практически в любой точке земного шара. Это может произойти в любой момент по указанию только одного человека в стране - президента Соединённых Штатов. Ядерная стратегия Дональда Трампа имеет 14 оснований применения ядерного орудия, часть из которых содержит нарочито составленные туманные формулировки, которые позволяют ядерным силам страны, например, нанести первый ядерный удар в случае неких «технологических прорывов», которых добились отдельные государства.

Для сравнения: его предшественник на посту главы государства Барак Обама включал в свою ядерную стратегию шесть оснований для применения ядерного оружия, то есть приблизительно в два раза меньше.

О понижении порога применения ядерного оружия Соединёнными Штатами говорит тот факт, что они установили ядерные боезаряды малой мощности W 76-2 на атомную подводную лодку «Теннесси», которая уже выходила на боевое патрулирование в Мировой океан. О возможности применения подобных ядерных боезарядов свидетельствует и действующая ядерная стратегия США. Ядерные боезаряды малой мощности будут установлены и на новую американскую корректируемую ядерную авиабомбу В 61-12, которая скоро должна быть принята на вооружение.

В прошлом году президент Дональд Трамп выдвинул идею-призыв проявления «нового» подхода к проблеме контроля над вооружениями. Но в чем состоит эта новация? Никто - ни он, ни его «специалисты по контролю над вооружениями» так и не смогли разъяснить эту инициативу. Скорее всего, такая идея была вброшена Вашингтоном с целью информационно-пропагандистского прикрытия заведённого им в глухой тупик всего процесса контроля над вооружениями.

До сих пор нет даже ясности в том, по какой причине администрация нынешнего хозяина Белого дома отказывается ещё раз подтвердить формулировку, которая представляется понятной даже людям, не являющимся специалистами в сфере ракетно-ядерных вооружений: «Ядерная война не может быть развязана, так как в ней не будет победителей». Следует напомнить, что это красноречивое высказывание впервые озвучил именно президент Рональд Рейган - такой же ставленник Республиканской партии, как и сам Дональд Трамп. Впоследствии эту максиму публично поддержал и Михаил Горбачёв. Сейчас её вновь готово подтвердить и нынешнее российское руководство. Соответствующее предложение Москвы было передано американской стороне ещё в прошлом году. Но из Вашингтона до сих пор нет никакого внятного ответа.

Складывается впечатление, что заявления Маршалла Биллингсли на тему контроля над вооружениями были сделаны в качестве средства информационно-политического давления на российскую сторону в преддверии очередного раунда российско-американских консультаций по стратегической стабильности, которые Вашингтон упорно квалифицирует как консультации по стратегической «безопасности», имея в виду обеспечение своей собственной безопасности в одностороннем порядке, которая не признаёт принцип равенства, равной безопасности и стратегического равновесия между двумя ядерными державами.

Уже давно существуют два практических вопроса к американской стороне, которые представляются далеко не праздными.

Первый вопрос: интересно, когда же там появятся реальные специалисты по контролю над вооружениями, способные генерировать действительно «новые» подходы к этой проблематике?

Второй вопрос: когда Соединённые Штаты перестанут огульно обвинять других в том, что инициативно натворили сами в этой чувствительной и важной сфере, от степени прогресса в которой зависит и характер военно-политических отношений между Москвой и Вашингтоном, да и судьба мира в целом?

Автор: Владимир Козин. Источник: Еженедельник “Звезда”

Вашингтон навязывает миру новый виток гонки вооружений

Военно-промышленному комплексу США развязывают руки в производстве и развёртывании нового класса наступательных ракет.

18 августа в США прошло лётное испытание новой экспериментальной крылатой ракеты наземного базирования (КРНБ) GLCM-X, относящейся к типу «Томагавк». Она пролетела свыше 500 км, ДРСМД, напомним, запрещал создавать ракеты дальностью от 500 до 5500 километров. При этом за океаном лицемерно пытаются выдать себя за «бедных овечек», вынужденных-де заботиться о своей безопасности.

Представитель пресс-службы Пентагона подполковник ВВС США Роберт Карвер, комментируя это испытание, сообщил, что данная ракета была четвёртой модификацией КРНБ «Томагавк», запущенной с использованием наземной пусковой установки Mk-41. «После приостановки США своих обязательств по ДРСМД в феврале 2019 года министерство обороны приступило к концептуальному проектированию систем крылатых ракет и баллистических ракет наземного базирования», – заявил он.

По утверждению подполковника Карвера, протестированная при пуске КРНБ пусковая установка не является копией противоракетной системы «Иджис эшор», то есть системы ПРО «Иджис» наземного базирования. Один её комплекс в настоящее время уже действует на территории Румынии, а другой находится в стадии строительства в Польше.

Упрекать лично подполковника Карвера не будем – он всего лишь одна из «говорящих голов», задействованных для оправдания курса нынешней администрации США, упорно ведущей дело к слому всей системы межгосударственных договорённостей, несколько десятилетий гарантировавшей миру пусть и относительную, но всё же стратегическую стабильность.

Заметим, что испытания новой ракеты состоялись всего лишь через 16 дней после завершения инициированной Вашингтоном процедуры денонсации ДРСМД. За такое короткое время нельзя разработать новое оружие. Очевидно, что США сперва создали ракету средней дальности в нарушение ДРСМД, а потом начали искать предлог для разрыва договора. И тому есть достаточно подтверждений, которые приводились Россией не раз.

Уже через сутки после выхода США из ДРСМД глава Пентагона Марк Эспер заявил, что страна активизирует работы по созданию неядерных ракет наземного базирования. Впрочем, линия Вашингтона на создание новых мобильно-грунтовых и стационарных ракет наземного базирования средней дальности с их последующим размещением в Европе и Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе прослеживается на протяжении уже многих лет.

Так, новые учебные баллистические и крылатые ракеты средней и меньшей дальности шести типов стали активно использоваться Пентагоном при тестировании ракет-перехватчиков системы ПРО с октября 1999 года.

В июле 2017 года палата представителей американского конгресса проголосовала за выделение ассигнований на разработку новой КРНБ средней дальности, которая однозначно подпадала под ограничения этого договора. В сентябре того же года это решение поддержал и сенат.

Особо надо подчеркнуть, что утверждения представителей Пентагона о невозможности использовать пусковые установки «Иджис эшор» для пуска КРНБ «Томагавк» не соответствуют действительности. В открытых источниках неоднократно говорилось, что они предназначены и для запусков «Томагавков», причём без особых сложностей. Для этого не потребуется никаких конструктивных изменений.

Кстати говоря, на американских кораблях, оснащённых морской БИУС «Иджис», имеется возможность запускать из одних и тех же пусковых установок Мk-41

четыре класса ракет: противокорабельные, противолодочные, ПВО и ПРО. Командные пункты этих комплексов располагают заранее установленным программным обеспечением, что позволяет командованию произвести запуск с универсальных пусковых установок любой ракеты оборонительного и наступательного характера.

По этой причине американские операционные комплексы наземного базирования в Европе и в АТР на базе установок вертикального пуска Мk-41 являются и будут являться комбинированными оборонительно-наступательными структурами стратегического назначения, входящими в систему ударно-боевых средств «передового базирования» США.

Дезинформацией мирового сообщества являются и разъяснения американских представителей, что создаваемые в США баллистические и крылатые ракеты наземного базирования в основном средней дальности не будут оснащены ядерными боезарядами. Они изначально являются ракетами «двойного назначения».

В этой связи интересен и тот факт, что на 33-й странице новой стратегии ПРО, утверждённой администрацией США в этом году, появилось принципиально новое положение: согласно ему система активной ПРО должна уничтожать ядерные ракеты потенциального противника не только вскоре после их запуска, но ещё и до команды «Пуск».

Пентагон не скрывает намерений активизировать свои усилия по созданию ракет средней дальности. Ожидается, что до конца текущего года в США будет проведено ещё несколько испытаний баллистических и крылатых ракет наземного базирования этого класса. Уже заявлено, что планируют в ноябре провести испытания баллистической ракеты с дальностью действия около 4 тыс. км.

Тем временем дезинформационная кампания, раскрученная Вашингтоном, продолжается. Как и его лживые утверждения, что Россия «нарушила» ДРСМД. Москва не только отвергает все эти измышления, но и неоднократно предлагала американской стороне убедиться в их несостоятельности. Взять ту же интересующую США ракету 9М729. Вначале американцам было предложено осмотреть это оружие в закрытом режиме и удостовериться, что оно не нарушает ДРСМД. После их отказа Минобороны России пошло на беспрецедентную меру транспарентности и открыто продемонстрировало данную ракету в присутствии иностранных представителей. Однако американцы не приехали и настоятельно рекомендовали отказаться от участия своим союзникам по НАТО.

К сожалению, европейские партнёры США продолжают обвинять Россию в подрыве ДРСМД. В очередной раз это было продемонстрировано на заседании Совбеза ООН, которое Москва и Пекин созвали в связи с планами США по разработке и размещению ракет средней дальности. На нём Вашингтон и под хрюкивающие, как образно выразился исполняющий обязанности постпреда России при ООН Дмитрий Полянский, ему страны «вопреки фактам и здравому смыслу сваливали всё с больной головы на здоровую, обвиняя Россию во всех смертных грехах».

Автор: В. Козин, Источник: “Красная звезда”

Вашингтон открывает ящик Пандоры

Начало выхода США из Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности намечено на 2 февраля.

По мнению российской стороны, некоторые типы американских ударных беспилотных летательных аппаратов соответствуют содержащемуся в ДРСМД определению термина «крылатая ракета наземного базирования».

Нынешняя республиканская администрация США продолжает следовать курсом на слом основ стратегической стабильности. В очередной раз это продемонстрировали российско-американские консультации по Договору о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД), которые состоялись 15 января в Женеве. Как заявил по их итогам заместитель министра иностранных дел РФ Сергей Рябков, возглавлявший российскую делегацию, США не желают считаться с претензиями России по ДРСМД и идут на разрушение этого соглашения.

За последние 17 лет Соединённые Штаты уже 96 раз нарушили этот договорный акт. Так, при проверке эффективности своей системы ПРО они используют ракеты-мишени средней и меньшей дальности, запрещённые этим соглашением. Подобные нарушения, судя по всему, будут продолжены Пентагоном и в текущем году. Об этих фактах красноречиво говорят соответствующие пресс-релизы управления по противоракетной обороне минобороны США, размещаемые на его интернет-сайте, а также заявления начальника этой штатной структуры американского военного ведомства, отвечающей за создание и испытания ракет – перехватчиков противоракетного щита.

Обеспокоенность России вызывают также развёртывание американцами ударных беспилотников большой дальности, подпадающих под терминологические определения договора, и возможное применение в Европе наземных универсальных пусковых установок Мk-41 американских операционных баз ПРО для запуска не только ракет-перехватчиков, но и крылатых ракет, и даже ударных баллистических средств, способных решать задачи наступательного характера.

Однако США не желают, и это вновь открыто проявилось на состоявшихся консультациях в Женеве, считаться с российскими претензиями и пытаются приписать нашей стране действия, не вписывающиеся в требования договора. По словам Сергея Рябкова, в Женеву американцы приехали, имея в руках удобный для них итог встречи. «Видя, что мы не поддаёмся на ультиматумы, они констатировали, что Россия якобы не готова вернуться к выполнению договора, – отметил он. – Им нужно и дальше стоять на своём, что развал договора – это следствие якобы нарушения его Россией».

При этом на женевской встрече американская делегация так и не привела конкретных фактов «несоблюдения» ДРСМД российской стороной. Единственной темой, к которой они пытались свести консультации, является крылатая ракета наземного базирования 9М729. Однако, как неоднократно подчёркивалось Москвой, эта ракета не разрабатывалась и не испытывалась на дальность, равную или превышающую установленное договором минимальное ограничение в 500 километров.

До противоположной стороны было также доведено, что 18 сентября 2017 года на полигоне Капустин Яр в рамках учений «Запад-2017» был произведён учебно-боевой пуск данной ракеты на максимальную дальность – она пролетела менее 480 км. Чтобы развеять опасения американцев, наша страна даже готова ознакомить их с конкретными параметрами этой ракеты.

«Мы использовали консультации, чтобы предложить Вашингтону конкретные меры в области транспарентности применительно к ракете 9М729, которые, по нашему мнению, позволили бы снять полностью любые подозрения, предположения США о несоответствии этого изделия требованиям договора, – заявил Сергей Рябков. – Но на эту транспарентность мы готовы были бы пойти лишь при условии встречной открытости Вашингтона к снятию наших озабоченностей».

США нарушают советско-американский договор 1987 года:

• размещая в Польше и Румынии универсальные пусковые установки Mk-41, пригодные для запуска крылатых ракет «Томагавк»;

• используя ракеты-мишени, имитирующие баллистические ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, для тестирования систем ПРО

Однако американцы не были готовы к встречным шагам, настаивали лишь на полном уничтожении этой ракеты в присутствии их специалистов-инспекторов. «Нас такой подход не может устроить, мы готовы к диалогу на основе равноправия, взаимного уважения, без выдвижения ультимативных требований», – подчеркнул российский дипломат.

Американская сторона явно не намерена вести диалог в таком ключе. Поэтому старший заместитель госсекретаря США по контролю над вооружениями и международной безопасности Андреа Томпсон, которая возглавляла американскую делегацию, назвала состоявшуюся встречу в Женеве «разочаровывающей». Её краткое заявление для СМИ привела в тот же день пресс-служба постоянного представительства США в Женеве. «Встреча была разочаровывающей, поскольку ясно, что Россия продолжает материальное нарушение ДРСМД», – голословно утверждала высокопоставленная представительница американского дипломатического ведомства.

Томпсон сообщила, что Соединённые Штаты привержены сделанному 4 декабря прошлого года государственным секретарём Майклом Помпео заявлению о том, что Вашингтон прекратит выполнять свои обязательства по этому договору, если Россия в течение 60 дней не вернётся к его выполнению. «Наша позиция ясна. Россия должна уничтожить свою ракетную систему, свидетельствующую о его невыполнении», – заявила глава американской делегации.

США, по словам То мпсон, приостановят выполнять обязательства по Договору о РСМД с 2 февраля этого года и у России останется шесть месяцев, чтобы подтвердить выполнение своих обязательств по нему. При этом она пояснила, что означает эта приостановка: США будут разрабатывать ракетную систему, которая была запрещена договорным актом о РСМД.

Не верится, что в заокеанском Белом доме не могут не осознавать, что выход США из ДРСМД откроет настоящий ящик Пандоры. Что касается нашей страны, то Россия готова и дальше работать над сохранением этого соглашения.

«Разумеется, мы не собираемся закрывать глаза на развёртывание американских ракет, которые представляют прямую угрозу для нашей безопасности. Вынуждены будем принимать эффективные ответные меры. Однако Россия, как ответственная и здравомыслящая страна, не заинтересована в новой гонке вооружений. Несмотря на объявленное США намерение выйти из договора, мы открыты для продолжения диалога по поиску путей его сохранения. В декабре направили американцам ряд конкретных предложений на этот счёт. Готовы к серьёзному разговору и по всей стратегической повестке между нашими странами», – заявил на днях Президент России Владимир Путин.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: "Красная звезда"

Вашингтон продолжает вмешиваться во внутренние дела в Сирии. В том числе и чужими руками

 
Судя по поступающей из Сирии информации, Вашингтон по-прежнему намерен оказывать широкую военную и иную поддержку остающимся террористическим группировкам на юго-западе этой страны, очевидно, стремясь использовать их с той же целью, которую он преследовал семь лет назад: затормозить процесс политического урегулирования и свергнуть там законную власть в этой арабской стране, а также привести к управлению в ней свою марионетку.

На сей раз в качестве вооруженного механизма «войны чужими руками» Соединенные Штаты активно используют отряды террористических группировок псевдохалифата «Исламское государство», ставшего преемником «Исламского государства Ирака и Леванта», и вооруженного формирования «Джабхат ан-Нусра» («Фронта помощи»), общая численность которых временами достигала несколько десятков тысяч человек, которые впоследствии окопались в бывших зонах деэскалации «Восточная Гута» и «Хомс».

Широко используется американской стороной для вооруженного противодействия режиму законно избранного президента САР Башара Асада и созданный военнослужащими США «террористический анклав» с городом Эт-Танф на юге Сирии, гле американские инструкторы обучают и направляют вглубь сирийской территории террористические отряды из названных группировок и воздушное пространство вокруг которого произвольно, то есть без санкции на это Дамаска, объявлено Пентагоном «бесполетной зоной» с радиусом 50 км.

В общей сложности в нарушение суверенитета и территориальной целостности Сирии – полноправного члена ООН – американские вооруженные силы и спецслужбы создали на ее территории 19 военных баз и опорных пунктов, а также 22 военные базы в сопредельных с сирийской территорией странах с целью их бесперебойного снабжения оружием, боеприпасами, горюче-смазочными материалами, продовольствием и так далее.

Следует обратить особое внимание, что прямая военно-техническая и снабженческо-тыловая поддержка Вашингтоном непримиримых террористических бандформирований в Юго-западной зоне деэскалации на сирийской земле вступает в явное противоречие с договоренностью о статусе и порядке ее функционирования. Примечательно, что в выработке такой договоренности, которая была уточнена в июле прошлого года, приняли участие и представители Иордании и США. При этом эти две страны, как страны-гаранты, обязались не только обеспечить соблюдение режима прекращения огня вооруженными антисирийскими группировками, но и продолжить борьбу с террористами, находившимися внутри Юго-западной зоне деэскалации.

К глубокому сожалению, в нарушение этой договоренности в течение последних двух лет Соединенные Штаты и примкнувший к ним Израиль постоянно снабжали и снабжают вооруженные антисирийские террористические группировки, окопавшиеся в этой зоне, всем необходимым для ведения боевых операций на многострадальной сирийской земле, а также обеспечивали и до сих пор обеспечивают регулярное прибытие неких «гуманитарных конвоев» в районы, подконтрольные «Сирийской свободной армией», также перманентно воюющей с сирийским народом.

Вполне очевидно, что уже на этапе создания Юго-западной зоне деэскалации Соединенные Штаты рассчитывали использовать находящиеся на сирийской территории взращенные ими вооруженные бандформирования в качестве дополнительной силы для наступления на Дамаск, который находится менее чем в 100 километрах от границ указанной зоны снижения напряженности.

По данным, поступающим из различных источников, под контроль псевдохалифата «Исламское государство» и «Джабхат ан-Нусры» уже перешло около 55 процентов территории бывшей Юго-западной зоне деэскалации, которую отчаянно пытаются удержать их вооруженные отряды общей численностью более пяти тысяч человек.

Грубо вмешиваясь во внутренние дела Сирии, Вашингтон даже взял на себя дерзость заявить, что Соединенные Штаты не допустят ввода сирийских вооруженных сил в эту зону деэскалации с целью установления там порядка и стабильности и защиты мирного населения, которое уже столько лет страдает от рук членов «террористического интернационала».

По всей видимости, Вашингтон стремится сохранить любые рычаги силового воздействия на военно-политическую ситуацию в Сирии с помощью вооруженных террористических формирований, объявленных не только в САР, но и во многих других странах вне закона. Таким образом, нынешняя американская администрация во главе с Дональдом Трампом открыто и преднамеренно нарушает его собственные обещания не вмешиваться во внутренние дела других государств и не свергать чужих лидеров, которые он дал в ходе своей предвыборной кампании в 2016 году.

Автор: Владимир Козин, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО

Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/41722

 

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ принял участие в дискуссии по проблематике Ближнего Востока и российско-турецким отношениям

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ, член-корреспондент РАЕН, профессор РАВН В.П. Козин принял участие в международной дискуссии по проблематике Ближнего Востока и российско-турецким отношениям, которая состоялась в Издательском доме «Московский комсомолец» 8 ноября.

Он высказал мнение, что активное противодействие вооруженным террористическим группировкам в Сирии и одержанные победы во многих регионах этой страны над ними не должны заслонять существование ряда других проблем, которые имеют прямое отношение к укреплению региональной стабильности и безопасности.

К таким проблемам он, в частности, отнес два ключевых вопроса: а) наличие собственного ядерного оружия у Израиля и ядерного оружия США, размещенного на турецкой территории в условиях, когда Иран отказался от военной части своей ядерной программы и б) участившиеся случаи использования боевых отравляющих химических веществ вооруженными террористическими группировками на территории САР – как против сирийских вооруженных сил, так и против мирного сирийского населения.

Касаясь ядерного оружия США, размещенного на турецкой территории, В.П. Козин обратил внимание на два обстоятельства, связанные с его возможным применением американской стороной:

1) его гипотетическое использование против вооруженных террористических группировок, о чем заявляли высокопоставленные американские представители после вступления Дональда Трампа в должность президента; 

2) переход полного управления над таким оружием под исключительный и односторонний контроль американской стороны, о чем было заявлено еще в период президентства Барака Обамы.

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ задал вопрос бывшему министру иностранных дел Турции Яшару Якышу, участвовавшему в дискуссии: не собирается ли турецкое руководство поставить вопрос перед Вашингтоном о полном выводе ядерного оружия США с территории Турции с учетом обозначенных двух факторов, а также в свете укрепления российско-турецких отношений в последнее время, в особенности в военно-политической и военно-технической сферах. Из ответа бывшего высокопоставленного турецкого дипломата следовало, что такая просьба с турецкой стороны вряд ли последует. Столь конкретный ответ он мотивировал тем, что нынешнее турецкое руководство хотело бы поддерживать ровные отношения как с Россией, так и с НАТО.

Взлом системы договоров по контролю над вооружениями: крайне опасная линия Вашингтона

16 мая 2018 года президент США Дональд Трамп поручил главе Государственного департамента совместно с Пентагоном, министерствами финансов и торговли, а также с директором национальной разведки разработать новые санкции в отношении Москвы из-за того, что Россия якобы «нарушает Договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности»  (ДРСМД) 1987 года. В тексте указания говорится, что названные структуры должны выполнить соответствующие требования, изложенные в разделе 1244 («С») закона № 115-91 о военном бюджете США на 2018 финансовый год.

Этот пункт обязывает главу государства представить Конгрессу «доклад с планом введения мер в отношении лиц, которые ответственны за невыполнение Российской Федерацией положений ДРСМД», в том числе «политических фигур правительства Российской Федерации». Предполагается, что ограничительные меры будут введены в отношении физических и юридических лиц, участвующих в разработке российских вооружений.    

В частности, предусматривается запретить или блокировать их транзакции в отношении активов или собственности, которые находятся на американской территории, запретить этим лицам въезд на территорию страны, не выдавать им въездные визы или аннулировать уже выданные визы. Кроме того, подчёркивается, что президент имеет право предложить любые другие меры, которые сочтёт целесообразными.

Новая враждебная выходка американского руководства против России говорит о том, что там серьезно заболели «хроническим санкционным синдромом» в самой тяжелой форме

Намечаемый новый антироссийский шаг нынешней американской администрации является несправедливым, нелегитимным и профессионально неадекватным.

Несправедливым по той причине, что не Россия, а США за последние 17 лет уже 93 раза нарушали этот важный бессрочный договор, не теряющей своей актуальности и работающий на перспективу. Такие нарушения американской стороной происходили во время испытаний ракет-перехватчиков системы ПРО, когда в качестве перехватываемых целей были задействованы ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, запрещенные договором 1987 года.

По этой причине, санкции за его постоянные нарушения должны быть введены не против России, а против Соединенных Штатов

Будет, видимо, правильным, если во время последующего обсуждения российских законопроектов о противодействиях американским санкциям против России будет включен отдельный пункт, вводящий санкции в отношении Вашингтона с формулировкой «за многочисленные нарушения американской стороной Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности от 8 декабря 1987 года и ее стремление продолжать его нарушения в будущем». 

Новое указание президента Дональда Трампа от 16 мая является нелегитимным, поскольку Вашингтон до сих пор не предъявил ни Москве, ни себе самому, ни всему остальному миру каких-то доказательств о «несоблюдении» данного договора российской стороной. Причиной этого является то, что такие доказательства просто не были собраны и не могут быть собраны ввиду их физического отсутствия. Все доклады Государственного департамента США по этому поводу – это просто пропагандистские пустышки.

Вашингтон уже давно пытается решить свою собственную проблему с «нарушениями ДРСМД» по схеме «переложить с больной головы на здоровую». То он пытался ликвидировать новые российские ракеты межконтинентальной дальности, не подпадающие под его терминологические определения. То намеревался обрушить огонь критики на другую новую российскую ракету, еще меньшей дальности, чем та, которая  минимально допустима по договору. То теперь стал обосновывать свой потенциальный выход из него «китайской ракетной угрозой».

Поскольку все эти изложенные обстоятельства являются надуманными и не отвечающими реальности, то какой-то торг Вашингтона с российской стороной в связи с ДРСМД является, как говорил герой одного литературного произведения, «неуместным». Если это еще не поняли наши американские контрагенты, то им можно посоветовать внимательно прочитать «Белую книгу»: «Перспективы Договора о ликвидации РСМД 1987 года», опубликованную в Москве на русском языке в 2017 году и на английском в 2018 году.

По всем изложенным выше причинам квалификация нового майского выпада Белого дома против Российской Федерации из-за ДРСМД как профессионально неадекватного является правильной. Видимо, такие советники работают в администрации президента Дональда Трампа, в Конгрессе и Государственном департаменте Соединенных Штатов.

Подлинной же причиной введения и американских граждан, и мировой общественности в заблуждение относительно «несоблюдения» Москвой договора 1987 года является стремление нынешней администрации постепенно подорвать всю систему контроля над ядерными вооружениями, которая скрупулезно создавалась уже несколькими главами государств Советского Союза/России и США.

Нет сомнений, что президент Дональд Трамп на каком-то этапе издаст директиву об одностороннем выходе Вашингтона из этого договора. Скорее всего, это произойдет после завершения ведущихся НИОКР на новую крылатую ракету наземного базирования с ядерным боезарядом или несколько раньше. Для этого в США активно создается соответствующая инженерно-техническая основа и необходимый информационный фон с 2012 года.

Реальная причина нападок США на Россию в связи с ДРСМД – это стремление взломать всю систему контроля над вооружениями

В этой связи необходимо напомнить, что Соединенные Штаты уже деструктивно отреагировали в одностороннем порядке на целую серию двусторонних и многосторонних договоров в области контроля над вооружениями.

Они вышли из договора по ПРО и из иранской ядерной сделки; не ратифицировали два договора (адаптированный ДОВСЕ и ДВЗЯИ); нарушают три договора, одну конвенцию и одно соглашение  (Договор СНВ-3, ДРСМД, Договор по открытому небу, Конвенцию о запрещении химического оружия и Соглашение об утилизации оружейного плутония); отказались обсуждать два проекта договоров исключительной важности (Договора о европейской безопасности и Договора о предотвращении  размещения оружия в космосе).

Это – крайне опасная линия нынешней американской администрации. Ее цель – взлом всей системы контроля над вооружениями, поскольку в составленном списке значатся одиннадцать договоров и соглашений, которые обеспечивают глобальную стратегическую стабильность по многим ключевым направлениям.

Было бы честным с американской стороны при выходе из ДРСМД просто сослаться на его пункт 2 статьи XV, которая позволяет любой стороне этого договорного акта выйти из него в порядке  осуществления своего государственного суверенитета, если она решит, что связанные с ним «исключительные обстоятельства поставили под угрозу ее высшие интересы».

Будет правильным и логичным, если Россия отреагирует на такой шаг незамедлительно и по тем же обстоятельствам. Но прежде попытается вылечить американский «хронический санкционный синдром» адекватными средствами.

Автор: Владимир Козин – ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России

 

Владимир Козин о планах США в отношении России и "корейском сценарии" для Украины

О будущем СВО в 2023 году и событиях на линии боевого соприкосновения изданию Украина.ру рассказывает политолог Владимир Козин

— Владимир Петрович, бойцы ВСУ записывают видеообращения к властям, в которых говорят о плачевной ситуации на линии огня, о том, что они не вооружены должным образом, не имеют ни оснащения, ни выручки. Об этом в своем блоге сообщает украинский политолог Олег Соскин. Как вы считаете, почему это происходит, если Европа, США и Великобритания обучают украинских солдат тактике ведения войны?

— Такие видеообращения к нынешнему украинскому военно-политическому руководству солдаты и офицеры ВСУ записывают практически с самого начала СВО. Причем, делают это инициативно и в весьма эмоциональных тонах, не стесняясь употреблять даже крепкие выражения в адрес своих бездарных начальников.

Подобные резкие слова в их адрес повторяют и украинские военнопленные. Описанная реакция ВСУ вызвана тем, что украинским военнослужащим на линии фронта не хватает не только оружия и боекомплектов, но и нормальных продуктов питания и сезонного обмундирования.

Все больше украинских солдат и офицеров жалуются также на то, что их бросают в самое пекло, а натовских наемников берегут; что денежное довольствие и боевое снабжение военнослужащих из восточных сильно проигрывает аналогичным показателям, которые распространяют на солдат и офицеров из западных районов Украины и на ее неонацистские вооруженные формирования.

Все больше становится нареканий со стороны ВСУ в адрес тактико-технических характеристик натовских тяжелых видов вооружений, поставляемых украинской армии из стран Североатлантического союза и ряда внеблоковых партнеров США.

Почему это происходит, если вся Европа, США и Великобритания обучают украинских солдат тактике ведения войны? Дело в том, что государства-члены НАТО, которые взялись за обучение военнослужащих ВСУ, не в состоянии обучить всех призывников.

Тем более за короткий период времени. Тем более тех, кто имеет слабую общеобразовательную и первоначальную военную подготовку, и тех, кто не знает английского языка вообще и профессионального военного английского языка в частности.

Все больше идет заявлений в адрес военно-политического руководства Украины. Более восьми лет оно вело агрессивные действия против собственных граждан, проживающих на Донбассе, что противоречит Конституции Украины.

С 14 февраля прошлого года, то есть за десять дней до СВО, Киев начал масштабную комбинированную агрессию против ДНР и ЛНР, проецируя ее в основном против гражданского населения.

Это привело к огромным жертвам среди мирных граждан и миллионным потокам украинских беженцев, а также огромным военным расходам Украины, резкому падению ВВП, утрате территорий. Украина заплатила слишком высокую цену за свою агрессию.

В ВСУ также все больше появляется голосов против притеснения православия на Украине и рейдерских захватов православных христианских храмов и церквей.

— Военные действия на Украине, по мнению местных политологов, идут в первую очередь в рамках борьбы за изменение миропорядка, а не "за" или "против" Украины. Что удерживает Украину в западных рамках и почему именно этот путь она выбрала?

— Да, я считаю, что агрессия Украины и НАТО теперь уже против России – а это имеет место после вхождения четырех новых бывших украинских субъектов в состав России в начале октября 2022 года – была спланирована именно со столь глубоким прицелом, как изменение миропорядка в пользу Запада.

Но сначала ставились минимальные задачи: вернуть Крым и четыре административных образования на Донбассе и на юге Украины, а затем измотать в военном и финансово-экономическом плане Россию, добившись ее дезинтеграции.

Запад также планировал принять Украину в НАТО с тем, чтобы иметь постоянный вооруженный конфликт с сопредельными российскими территориями.

— Почему Россия не смогла повести Украину по своему пути?

– Россия не смогла повести Украину по своему пути и обеспечить ее внеблоковый и дружественный характер относительно себя в результате существенных системных ошибок политического, торгово-экономического и информационно-разъяснительного характера, а также неправильных кадровых решений на весьма высоком уровне.

Не хватило смелости повторить аналогичную ситуацию, которая была успешно проведена в Крыму в 2014 году, на Донбассе.

Кроме того, отрицательное воздействие проявилось в результате неправильной и фактологически несостоятельной квалификации ряда ведущих стран НАТО в качестве "миротворцев" и "сторонников мирного разрешения" внутренней агрессии Киева против собственных граждан.

Она началась после выхода 13 апреля 2014 года указа и.о. президента Украины Турчинова о начале внутренней агрессии Киева против мирных граждан Донбасса под предлогом борьбы с никогда не существовавшей "террористической угрозой со стороны ДНР И ЛНР".

К глубокому сожалению, мы слишком долго называли своими партнерами и коллегами натовских агрессоров и милитаристов, которые Советскому Союзу, а затем и России после 1991 года, всегда желали только зла.

— Секретарь Совета национальной безопасности и обороны (СНБО) Украины Алексей Данилов заявил, что Киеву предлагают или могут предложить "корейский сценарий" урегулирования, предусматривающий разделение страны — "так называемая условная "38-я параллель". Какие перспективы у такого сценария?

— Реализация этого плана будет означать одно. Между Украиной и Россией сохранится перманентное вооруженное противостояние, если в Киеве не появятся вменяемые, некоррумпированные, дружественно настроенные к собственным гражданам и к Российской Федерации лидеры.

Если будет "две Украины", как существуют две Кореи, то прозападная часть Украины вступит в НАТО, разместит ракетно-ядерное и противоракетное оружие США и будет по-прежнему дестабилизировать обстановку в Европе и в мире в целом.

Новое военно-политическое украинское руководство должно обеспечить внеблоковый, нейтральный и безъядерный статус Украины, а также прекратить агрессию против России. Киев раз и навсегда должен признать существующие реальности с Москвой в политико-юридическом и территориально-географическом плане, а также заключить бессрочный мирный договор.

— Нужна ли США тотальная победа над Россией? И как в глазах Вашингтона это может выглядеть?

— Да, уверен, что нужна. Об этом свидетельствуют ключевые военные доктрины, одобренные Джозефом Байденом в октябре прошлого года, огромные суммы военной помощи, предоставляемые преступному украинскому режиму странами альянса "трансатлантической солидарности" и другими государствами с целью продолжения масштабной агрессии Украины и НАТО против России.

А также размещение на украинской земле тяжелых видов вооружений, щедро поставляемых Западом, участие натовских военнослужащих под прикрытием "наемников" в рядах ВСУ.

Стратегическая цель США и НАТО в отношении России была и остается неизменной – обеспечить ее развал и полное уничтожение ее как государства с таким названием. Тот, кто еще не понял этого, обречен на тектоническое поражение и вечную скорбь.

Беседовала Анна Черкасова. Источник: Украина.ру

 

 

Владимир Козин о том, что заявит Россия на срочном заседании Совбеза ООН по Донбассу

Политолог, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин в интервью изданию Украина.ру объяснил, почему именно сейчас Россия обратилась в Совбез ООН по Донбассу

Россия запросила срочное заседание Совбеза ООН на 8 ноября из-за ударов по Донецку. Ранее 7 ноября в результате обстрела города вооруженными силами Украины (ВСУ) жертвами стали 20 человек.

— Владимир Петрович, почему почти год идет спецоперация, а мы не можем защитить Донбасс от обстрелов?

— Москва с первых дней украино-натовской агрессии, направленной против мирного населения пяти исторических территорий, которые вошли в состав Российской Федерации по воле их населения, оказывала широкое вооруженное противодействие варварским обстрелам ВСУ домов и объектов социально-энергетической инфраструктуры тяжелыми и иными видами вооружений.

Обстрелы происходят практически каждый день и ночь. Обстреливаются несколько населенных пунктов и отдельные районы Донецка и других городов. В среднем ВСУ используют от 100 до 300 снарядов различного назначения артиллерийских систем и ракет РСЗО. А количество самих обстрелов достигает несколько раз в сутки.

ВСУ широко использует против мирного населения и противопехотные мины, и кассетные боеприпасы. Неоднократно подвергались обстрелам российские АЭС. В результате таких обстрелов гибнут мирные граждане, в том числе старики, дети.

Российские Вооруженные Силы не могут в полном объеме предотвратить все подобные акции в силу большой протяженности линии фронта, а также значительного количества используемых ВСУ снарядов и ракет, дальность стрельбы которых постоянно возрастает.

— Что особенного в последних обстрелах, что Россия созывает срочное заседание Совбеза ООН?

— Российская сторона постоянно информирует мировое сообщество о таких преступных акциях украинской стороны. С указанием точных мест таких обстрелов, используемых при этом видов вооружений, и, к сожалению, о жертвах среди мирных граждан и разрушениях домов, больниц, школ и энергетических объектов.

В последних обстрелах обращает на себя внимание большое число жертв среди мирного населения и целенаправленное разрушение жилого фонда, объектов социально-энергетической инфраструктуры. Терпению России пришел конец.

Тем более что российские Вооруженные Силы не ведут войну с мирными гражданами Украины, не разрушают их жилища и аналогичные объекты жизнеобеспечения, о которые шла речь выше.

— Какой смысл обращаться в ООН, если нас все равно не слышат и на Украине идет настоящая война Запада против России?

— Россия поставила данный вопрос в ООН в очередной раз. Таким варварским методам ведения украинско-натовской агрессии против мирного населения обозначенных пяти исторических территорий, ставших полноправным субъектами Российской Федерации, должен быть положен конец. Тем более это идет при прямом содействии стран НАТО и ряда внеблоковых государств.

— Какие страны в ООН могут поддержать Россию по вопросу Донбасса? Как это может выглядеть?

— Москва выражает глубокое сожаление по поводу того, что некоторые государства — члены ООН не обращают внимания на военные преступления киевского режима и его западных кураторов против мирного населения России.

Несомненно, что российская сторона еще раз выскажет свое осуждение подобной бесчеловечной и варварской практики Украины.

Кроме того, она сделает заявление в адрес стран, входящих в НАТО и выступающих за продолжение поставок смертоносных видов вооружений на Украину. Это лишь усугубит положение: военные преступления киевского руководства против мирных граждан России продолжатся.

Российские граждане все чаще требуют от российского военно-политического руководства строго наказать эти два источника многочисленных и масштабных бед и страданий среди мирного населения России.


Справка:

В результате обстрела 7 ноября 2023 года украинскими агрессорами здания Управления труда и социальной защиты населения и маршрутного такси в Донецке погибли 6 человек, ранено 55, в том числе трое детей. К сожалению, погибли приехавшие для спасения людей врач и фельдшер скорой медицинской помощи, а также сотрудник дорожной полиции, ранены 23 спасателя МЧС. С разными интервалами по зданию управления были нанесены три удара

Террористическая практика нанесения повторных ударов по одному и тому же месту прочно закрепилась в арсенале ВСУ. Прекрасно зная, что на места нанесения огневого удара вскоре прибывают сотрудники оперативных служб (спасатели, медики, полиция), а также журналисты, ВСУ наносят повторные удары во время их работы, мешая эвакуировать раненых и погибших, а также не позволяя сотрудникам МЧС полноценно приступить к ликвидации последствий обстрелов.

Обстрелы Донецкой городской агломерации продолжаются с 2014 года и всегда носили умышленный и системный характер.

Только с начала 2022 года Донецк и его окрестности подвергались артиллерийским обстрелам ВСУ более 25 тысяч раз, и по этой территории было выпущено около 145 тысяч снарядов.

Разрушено и повреждено более 16 тыс. жилых домостроений и почти 3,5 тыс. объектов гражданской инфраструктуры, в т.ч. около 700 образовательных и свыше 200 медицинских учреждений, более 1100 объектов электро-, водо-, тепло- и газоснабжения.

На территории Республики за это время погибло 4755 мирных жителей, в том числе 140 детей. 5360 человек, включая 357 детей, получили ранения различной степени тяжести.


Беседовала Анна Черкасова. Источник: Украина.ру.

 

Владимир Козин о том, что скрывает Гросси: Украина готовит "атомный шантаж" против России

Украина при поддержке Вашингтона и стран Европы готовит фальшивые доказательства "расхищения" российскими военнослужащими радиоактивных материалов и вывозе их с территории Чернобыльской АЭС.

Ожидается, что они будут озвучены во время чрезвычайной специальной сессии Генассамблеи, возобновляющей работу 22 февраля. Об этом говорится в заявлении Межведомственного координационного штаба России по гуманитарному реагированию от 14 февраля.

О том, что на самом деле происходит на Чернобыльской и Запорожской АЭС, изданию Украина.ру раскрыл политолог Владимир Козин.

— Владимир Петрович, Киев намерен обвинить Россию в расхищении радиоактивных материалов ЧАЭС и в якобы «грубом нарушении» обязательств Конвенции о ядерной безопасности в ходе проведения СВО. В штабе обратили внимание, что норвежские эксперты уже «обследовали» местность в районах у трассы Киев — Припять, а также в Буче, Гостомеле и Ирпене, и уже оформлены фейковые протоколы о якобы наличии заражения. Неужели с помощью фейковых протоколов можно обвинить в таких серьезных преступлениях Россию?

— К сожалению, с помощью таких «протоколов», если они будут умело подготовлены киевским режимом и его кураторами в НАТО, а также если нам не удастся разработать основательную контраргументацию таким филькиным грамотам, можно уговорить очень многих сторонников продолжения украинско-натовской агрессии против России в «фактологической верности» очередных украинских фейков в названной области.

По этой причине российская сторона должна приложить все усилия, чтобы развенчать готовящуюся пропагандистскую провокацию. Таких вбросов в Киеве и в штаб-квартире «трансатлантического альянса» в Брюсселе против нас состряпано уже немало.

Задолго до начала необоснованного обсуждения этого вопроса в ООН следовало бы поручить представительству России при МАГАТЭ в Вене таким организациям как «Росатом» и «Росэнергоатом», а также под эгидой и плотным контролем МИД России подготовить развернутую и основательную контраргументацию. Она показала бы всю лживость военно-политического руководства Украины в попытке еще раз вбросить в мировое сообщество «атомный шантаж» с глубокими негативными последствиями глобального масштаба.

В частности, следовало бы сделать упор на отсутствие прямых доказательств. Например, «присвоения» российской стороной радиоактивных материалов с территории Чернобыльской АЭС с учетом того, что она находилась под наблюдением российских военнослужащих весьма короткий период времени — с конца февраля прошлого года. С марта того же года АЭС вновь перешла под контроль ВСУ и до сих пор контролируется ими.

Важно обратить внимание, что инспекторы МАГАТЭ, не раз посещавшие ЧАЭС, не сообщали о «пропаже» каких-то радиоактивных материалов с этого неработающего энергетического комплекса, где из-за головотяпства украинских «специалистов» в 1986 году произошла страшная экологическая катастрофа, вызванная разрушением одного из реакторов станции.

Необходимо также отметить маниакальное стремление ВСУ многократно обстреливать другую АЭС — Запорожскую — с помощью тяжелых видов вооружений с целью повреждения ее вспомогательных систем обеспечения для выполнения конечной задачи: ее полного выведения из строя с последующим масштабным радиоактивным заражением местности и удаления оттуда российской национальной гвардии.

— Многократные миссии МАГАТЭ на Чернобыльскую АЭС подтвердили нормальный радиационный фон на станции и окружающих территориях. С января 2023 года на станции постоянно находятся инспекторы МАГАТЭ, которые контролируют радиационную обстановку. Что на самом деле происходит сейчас на ЧАЭС и ЗАЭС?

— Как уже отмечалось, ЧАЭС остается в неработающем состоянии, а ЗАЭС, которая полностью перешла под контроль, управление и обслуживание российской стороной с октября прошлого года, частично деактивирована.

Обвинения, которые США и Украина постоянно выдвигают против России в названной сфере, преследует несколько целей: обеспечить приток новых видов вооружений для продолжения агрессии ВСУ; очередное очернительство России и продвижение весьма опасного плана генерального директора МАГАТЭ Рафаэля Гросси по созданию вокруг ЗАЭС зоны физической и ядерной безопасности без участия российской стороны.

Как хорошо известно, у России уже накоплен огромный опыт по обеспечению такой безопасности на многочисленных объектах атомной энергетики своими силами.

— Недавно глава МАГАТЭ Рафаэль Гросси прилетал в Москву на встречу с гендиректором «Росатома». Каковы итоги встречи? Что на ваш взгляд самое важное сейчас в повестке для обсуждения по данной тематике?

— Да, Гросси недавно приезжал в Москву, где провел консультации с генеральным директором Госкорпорации «Росатом» Алексеем Лихачёвым. Визитер отличается активным лоббированием своеобразной украинской позиции по проблематике обеспечения физической и ядерной безопасности АЭС и сокрытием многочисленных фактов обстрела ЗАЭС украинскими вооруженными силами. Он рассказал о продвижении своей «инициативы» по созданию такой зоны на этом энергетическом объекте, словно этого не в состоянии обеспечить российские специалисты.

С учетом изложенных обстоятельств, самым важным в повестке дня подобных встреч с Гросси представляется в дальнейшем исключить обсуждение его «инициативы», согласованной с украинским военно-политическим руководством. Представляется целесообразным лишь информировать его о принятых нами конкретных мерах по обеспечению физической и ядерной безопасности ЗАЭС, делая при этом упор на том, чтобы руководимое им Агентство наконец-то приступило к сдерживанию украинской стороны, которая продолжает заниматься «атомным шантажом» и распространяет ложные обвинения в адрес России, которые не находят принципиальной оценки в штаб-квартире МАГАТЭ.

— Почему Гросси требует, чтобы русские ушли из ЗАЭС?

— Требование Гросси о выводе российских военных представителей из ЗАЭС имеет под собой несколько мотивов: после решения этой задачи предоставить Киеву возможность в еще большем объеме шантажировать Европу и мир «атомной опасностью, исходящей от АЭС, контролируемых Россией». А на этом основании требовать «освобождения» нами всех пяти территорий, вошедших в состав нашего государства — их исторической, культурной и духовной Родины.

Подготовленный и вышедший в сентябре прошлого года Гросси доклад о его поездке на ЗАЭС является антироссийским и проукраинским. Россия обвинена в нем в обстрелах станции, хотя доказательств этого предъявлено не было. В 2022 году в бытность руководства Гросси этим Агентством его Совет управляющих также принял три антироссийских резолюции, обвинив Россию в нарушении ядерной и физической безопасности на этой станции.

Беседовала Анна Черкасова. Источник: Украина.ру

 

 

Владимир Козин о фонде помощи ветеранам СВО: Нужно выставить счет Западу

Президент России Владимир Путин в рамках своего выступления перед Федеральным собранием 21 февраля предложил создать специальный государственный фонд адресной помощи семьям погибших бойцов и ветеранам спецоперации (помощь в образовании, работе, спорте, медицине и другом)

О том, какие условия необходимы для создания такой организации и не будет ли бюрократических препятствий этому, изданию Украина.ру рассказал политолог Владимир Козин.

— Владимир Петрович, президент заявил, что до конца года филиалы фонда должны быть во всех регионах России. Не возникнет ли каких-то неестественных препятствий при создании такой организации?

— Это правильное предложение. Любые препятствия на этом пути должны оперативно устраняться. А лица, виновные в препятствовании, должны увольняться с работы. Причем основанием для увольнения должны быть любые факты невыполнения планов по созданию фонда: прямой саботаж или недостаток профессионализма.

Если правительство России будет иметь точные сроки и персональных ответственных за выполнение конкретных элементов созываемого фонда, то проблем не будет.

— Что необходимо, чтобы такой фонд заработал на практике?

— Необходимо издать указ, определить конкретные сроки его введения в действие, в том числе по каждому субъекту Российской Федерации. Выделить реальные денежные средства.

— Какими средствами наполнять этот фонд?

— Во-первых, у нас полно лишних денег, и не все используются эффективно. Во-вторых, у нас арестовали наши средства за рубежом. Мы можем и обязаны арестовать счета недружественных государств у нас, национализировать имущество их граждан

Например, стоит предъявить огромные счета за уничтоженные «Северные потоки» на Балтике, повысить процент с прибыли крупных частных предприятий, типа «Никель». А с «Газпрома» снять расходы за финансирование «Эхо Москвы».

— Какие у нас сейчас есть организации в помощь бойцам?

— Все эти организации мне неизвестны. Предложение Владимира Владимировича Путина исходит из необходимости укрепления этой системы и ее управленческой и функциональной унификации по всей стране.

— Чем новый фонд будет отличаться от существующих организаций?

— Отличие нового фонда будет именно в том, что он государственный, и контролировать его деятельность должно будет правительство. Будет хорошо, если следить за исполнением функций фонда будут и губернаторы.

Беседовала Анна Черкасова. Источник: Украина.ру

 

 

Владимир Козин рассказал об истинной цели крупных учений НАТО в Балтике

На Балтийском море проходят крупные военно-морские учения НАТО. В чем их смысл и почему Россия внимательно за ними следит? Как не состоящие в НАТО Финляндия и Швеция участвуют в деятельности альянса? Рискнут ли третьи страны вмешаться в конфликт на Украине? Обо всем этом в интервью "Sputnik на русском" рассказал член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин.

Источник: радио "Sputnik"

 

Владимир Козин: «Вероятность развязывания ядерной войны США, Великобританией и Францией против России остаётся очень высокой»

Россию беспокоит и возможность перерастания напряжённости в отношениях между Россией и США в реальную ядерную войну, или, по крайней мере, включение такой возможности в повестку двусторонних отношений. Этот сценарий стал возможен в результате украинского кризиса

Бездумная накачка Украины западным оружием не достигла ожидаемых результатов в отношении России и ударила по всему миру. В результате всё чаще звучат слова об угрозе начала ядерной войны, в которую в том числе могут быть втянуты европейские страны. Совсем недавно с такой точкой зрения выступил китайский военный эксперт Сун Чжунпин в интервью газете Global Times, а месяцем ранее Стокгольмский международный институт исследований проблем мира обнародовал доклад, в котором утверждается, что мир в настоящий момент находится на пороге ядерной катастрофы. «Спровоцировав обострение украинского кризиса и развязав ожесточённое гибридное противостояние с Россией, Вашингтон и его союзники опасно балансируют на грани открытой военной конфронтации с нашей страной, а значит - прямого вооружённого конфликта ядерных держав», - заявила 12 июля официальный представитель МИД России Мария Захарова, предупредив, что подобное развитие событий грозит ядерной эскалацией.

О том, существует ли угроза ядерной войны в результате конфликта на Украине и от кого она исходит, еженедельнику «Звезда» рассказал член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин:

В последнее время значительно возросли шансы для развязывания ядерной войны по инициативе ядерных держав Запада во главе с Соединёнными Штатами, хотя угроза ядерной войны продолжает существовать с момента создания ядерного оружия американцами, применившими его в августе 1945 года против Японии (Хиросима и Нагасаки).

Соответственно, такая опасность существовала и задолго до известных на Украине событий 2022 года или восьмилетней давности в связи перманентными тремя агрессиями, развязанными против граждан Донбасса украинскими неонацистскими режимами с 2014 года.

Наличие такой ядерной угрозы на протяжении всего этого времени обуславливалось действующей и по сей день с 1945 года американской ракетно-ядерной доктриной, в том числе ныне действующей и включающей в себя 14 оснований для применения оружия массового поражения и всегда предусматривающей нанесение Соединёнными Штатами первого ядерного удара.

14 оснований применения ядерного оружия США

В действующей до сих пор ядерной стратегии, утверждённой Д. Трампом 2 февраля 2018 г., говорится, что оно может быть применено:

1. с целью сдерживания противника от применения ЯО и обычных видов вооружений любого масштаба и при любых обстоятельствах (с. 20);

2. для ответа на нападение стратегических неядерных сил (с. 21);

3. для защиты союзников и партнёров от ядерного и неядерного нападения (с. 21);

4. в ответ на нападение против США, их союзников и партнёров, а также на гражданское население и гражданские объекты (с. 21);

5. если предпринято нападение против ядерных союзников США (с. 21);

6. применение боезарядов малой мощности в случае региональной агрессии (с. 54);

7. если оперативные недостатки уменьшат эффективность ядерных сил США (с. 38).

Причём половина таких предлогов (семь), согласно которым может быть осуществлён так называемый превентивный ядерный удар, как видно из текста этой стратегии, могут быть свободно интерпретированы Вашингтоном. К ним относятся: изменение геополитической ситуации, появление новых технологий у противоборствующих государств, изменение их военно-стратегических установок и тому подобное.

«Туманные» положения ядерной стратегии США:

8. при появлении «неожиданных вызовов» (с. 38);

9. при появлении «геополитических вызовов», которые будут угрожать любому элементу ядерных сил США (с. 40);

10. при появлении многочисленных будущих рисков и неопределённостей (с. 48);

11. в ответ на «новые формы агрессии» (с. 21);

12. в ответ на появление «новых противников», развитие у них ядерных сил и изменений в доктринах и стратегиях противников (с. 38);

13. против государств-участников ДНЯО, если нарушают его (с. 21);

14. при появлении «технических вызовов» или «технологических прорывов у противников», а также при кибератаках (с. 38).

США никогда не соглашались взять обязательство о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе; они считают, что такая политика в настоящее время является неоправданной (с. 22).

На сегодняшний день опасность применения ядерного оружия тремя ядерными державами НАТО в свете украинских событий возросла. Другими словами, порог использования ядерного оружия резко снизился. На этом фоне был сделан ряд заявлений со стороны официальных лиц Соединённых Штатов Америки, Польши и Великобритании о готовности использовать ядерное оружие для решения их задач на Украине. Естественно, что подобного рода высказывания не должны и не могут оставаться без внимания, а, напротив, необходимы для тщательного анализа с сопоставлением всех факторов, связанных с размещением ядерного оружия и военно-доктринальными установками его применения. Кроме ядерных установок натовская «ядерная тройка», куда входят США, Великобритания и Франция, учитывает материальную составляющую: способы и характер выдвижения ядерных средств и средства доставки.

Начиная с середины 50-х годов в Европе расположены американские базы с тактическим ядерным оружием - на территории Нидерландов, Бельгии, Федеративной Республики Германии и Италии - четырёх европейских государств, за исключением Турции с авиабазой ВВС США Инджирлик под городом Адана, что находится в азиатской части турецкой территории.

И выходит, что на пять безъядерных стран, не обладающих собственным ядерным оружием, суммарно приходится порядка 150 тактических американских бомб семейства B-61, способных быть доставленными самолётами «двойного назначения», то есть Dual Capable Aircraft, или, сокращённо, DCA.

Они могут быть доставлены в том числе и национальными авиационными средствами доставки, что регулируется специальными соглашениями Nuclear Sharing Arrangements, иными словами, «соглашениями о разделении ядерной ответственности» (иногда называемыми «соглашениями о совместных ядерных миссиях»), которые существуют между США и всеми пятью натовскими государствами. Правда, американское ядерное оружие всё равно находится под контролем верховного главнокомандующего США - он же президент Соединённых Штатов. Более того, американцы с 2004 года продолжают проводить в небе Литвы, Латвии и Эстонии операцию «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» (Baltic Air Policing), где задействуются самолёты «двойного назначения», способные нести не только обычные, но и ядерные вооружения в виде тех же тактических ядерных бомб B-61, расположенных в Европе.

США и их союзники по НАТО проводят учения с условным применением ядерного оружия по программе SNOWCAT, что означает «Поддержка ядерных операций с помощью обычных тактических полётов ВВС» (Support of Nuclear Operations with Conventional Air Tactics), а также по программе учений ВВС НАТО под кодовым обозначением Steadfast Noon.

Кроме этого, как при президентах Обаме и Трампе, так и при Байдене американцы не торопятся отказываться от направления тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков в воздушное пространство стран Европы, как можно ближе расположенных к нашим рубежам. Так, Стратегические ядерные силы США засылали тяжёлые стратегические бомбардировщики, которые приземлялись на базе ВВС Эстонии Эмари. Они проводили бомбардировку условными ядерными боезарядами по литовскому полигону в 60 км от Калининградской области. И сертифицированный для несения ядерного оружия стратегический бомбардировщик B-52 Stratofortress ещё задолго до начала проведения специальной военной операции (СВО) пересекал воздушное пространства Польши и входил в воздушное пространство Украины в сопровождении истребителей воздушных сил Украины. По сути дела, он долетал до Мариуполя, на тот момент находившегося под контролем украинского режима, где барражировал приблизительно в 20 км от Донбасса, уже не входящего в состав Украины после событий 2014 года.

В период беспрецедентной концентрации вооружённых сил Украины в январе текущего года около Донбасса к авиационным средствам операции «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» с территории Бельгии, Дании и Нидерландов были добавлены в общей сложности ещё 12 истребителей-бомбардировщиков американского производства, которые являются носителями ядерного оружия, в том числе новейшие самолёты F-35A. Пока нейтральная (до вступления в НАТО) Финляндия заказала в США 64 таких самолёта. С какой целью и почему так много?

Не исключено, что американские ядерные авиабомбы тайно уже размещены на территории государств Балтии и Польши.

Вашингтон не собирается вывозить на континентальную часть Соединённых Штатов всё своё тактическое ядерное оружие, в настоящее время размещённое на территории Европы и в азиатской части Турции, которое при определённых условиях может выполнять стратегические задачи. В мае этого года в Европе появилась первая партия новейших высокоточных ядерных авиабомб В61-12, корректируемых с помощью системы глобального позиционирования и специально разработанного хвостового оперения.

Пентагон не намерен ликвидировать две свои оперативные базы ПРО в Румынии (поставлены на боевое дежурство) и Польше (достраивается), в пусковые установки которых могут загружаться не только оборонительные ударные средства в виде ракет-перехватчиков, но и наступательные виды вооружений: крылатые ракеты класса «Томагавк» как в обычном, так и ядерном снаряжении, а в перспективе - и высокоточные гиперзвуковые средства.

То есть и концептуальная, и материально-техническая стороны ядерных вооружений США говорят о созданном ядерном кулаке, активное выдвижение которого на передовые рубежи относительно территории Российской Федерации и Республики Беларусь наблюдается в последнее время. И в Вашингтоне вовсе не собираются прощаться с подобными средствами передового базирования: американцы не желают лишаться тактического ядерного оружия в Европе, а также не собираются сворачивать операцию «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование».

В середине декабря прошлого года, во избежание ядерной катастрофы, Россия передала США предложения по гарантиям безопасности, в которых предлагалось решить многие ядерные проблемы, но они все были отвергнуты американской стороной и в штаб-квартире НАТО. И, как можно констатировать, самыми злостными нарушителями Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия (ДНЯО) являются как раз американцы, нарушающие первую статью, которая запрещает размещение за пределами своей территории ядерного оружия на территории безъядерных государств, а также вторую его статью те государства, которые дали своё согласие на размещение американского ядерного оружия на своих территориях, будучи безъядерными странами.

Поэтому вероятность развязывания ядерной войны и применения соответствующего оружия массового поражения Соединёнными Штатами Америки, Великобританией и Францией против нас остаётся очень высокой.

У нас, к сожалению, имеется определённое информационное отставание в предметной критике ядерных приготовлений США и НАТО. Получилась парадоксальная ситуация, при которой в мире насчитывается девять ядерных государств, имеющих собственное ядерное оружие, но лишь одна из них - Российская Федерация - подвергается жесточайшей критике «за готовность применить ядерное оружие».

Автор: В.П. Козин. Источник: Еженедельник “Звезда”

 

Владимир Козин: «Глобальная ПРО – для глобального удара. На это направлена обновлённая стратегия противоракетной обороны США»

В модернизации военного потенциала США особое значение придают развитию глобальной системы противоракетной обороны. Очередным свидетельством тому стал новый «Противоракетный обзор» (2022 Missile Defense Review), опубликованный 27 октября в числе ещё двух американских военно-стратегических установочных документов. Наша редакция попросила прокомментировать обзор известного политолога Владимира Козина, члена-корреспондента Академии военных наук России, автора монографии «Ключевые военные стратегии США: их национальные и международные последствия».

– Владимир Петрович, мы с вами уже обсудили «Стратегию национальной обороны» и «Обзор ядерной политики» (ядерную стратегию) США. Сегодня тема нашей беседы – «Противоракетный обзор 2022 года». В чём, на ваш взгляд, заключаются главные цели этого документа?

– Новый «Противоракетный обзор» представляет собой сокращённый несекретный вариант обновлённой стратегии ПРО США, который заменил аналогичный документ точно такого же названия, утверждённый президентом Дональдом Трампом в 2019 году. В  предисловии к нему записано, что противоракетная стратегия 2022 года определяет приоритеты в области национальной ПРО, её военно-техническую составляющую, а также формы и степень интеграции этой системы с американскими военно-политическими союзниками и партнёрами c целью укрепления взаимодействия для обеспечения защиты от внешних ракетных угроз.

Констатируется, что за последние три года угрозы, связанные с развитием и применением ракетного оружия, претерпели количественные и качественные изменения. Они стали разнообразными и изощрёнными. Ударными средствами, которые создают подобные вызовы, обозначены баллистические и крылатые ракеты, гиперзвуковые системы и беспилотные летательные аппараты.

Среди государств, против которых должна применяться система ПРО, названы КНР, Россия, КНДР, Иран, а также «негосударственные субъекты», то есть террористические организации. В этой связи подчёркивается, что стратегия ПРО сопряжена со стратегиями ядерного сдерживания и использования сил общего назначения, а также с аналогичными средствами союзников и партнёров США. В частности, речь идёт об использовании глобальной интегрированной противовоздушной и противоракетной обороны (Integrated Air and Missile Defense или сокращенно IAMD), включающей интегрированную систему ПВО-ПРО территории Соединённых Штатов, а также интегрированные системы ПВО-ПРО регионов и театров военных действий.

Отмечается также, что многоуровневая система ПРО одновременно обеспечивает функцию воспрещения деятельности противника, снижает его уверенность в планировании и проведении бое­вых операций и создаёт ему препятствия в усилиях по достижению победы в военном конфликте. Такая система подкрепляет дипломатические усилия и уровень безопасности в самом широком смысле. Она повышает степень уверенности союзников и партнёров США в том, что Вашингтон не ослабит свои глобальные обязательства в сфере укрепления безопасности.

– Вы сказали, что в обзоре названы те, против кого нацелена система противоракетной обороны. А чем это обосновывается?

– В общем плане Вашингтон исходит из того, что те, кого они определяют сегодня в качестве своих противников, разрабатывают, развёртывают, а также отражают в стратегиях наиболее перспективные авиационные и ракетные системы, что представляет растущие угрозы и риски для США, их союзников и партнёров. Соображения администрации Джозефа Байдена по отдельным странам представлены следующим образом.

КНР обвинена в том, что бросает вызов Соединённым Штатам. Утверждается, что за последние двадцать лет она значительно продвинулась в разработке технологий и создании баллистических и гиперзвуковых ракет в ядерном и обычном снаряжении, используя российские разработки и развивая свои собственные, сокращая тем самым разрыв с США. Таким образом, Китай получает всё больше возможностей для противодействия американским силам передового базирования, в особенности развёрнутым в западной части Тихого океана.

Нападки на Россию начинаются с голословного обвинения в подрыве системы европейской безопасности и международного порядка, основанного на «широких правилах», которые в стратегии не раскрываются. Среди угроз в адрес США называется модернизация российских МБР, а также появление различных систем, которые создают проблемы для деятельности американских средств раннего предупреждения о ракетном нападении. В документе говорится и о появлении российских высокоточных ракетных систем наземного, морского и воздушного базирования.

КНДР обвинена в том, что совершенствует баллистические ракеты, способные нести обычные и ядерные боезаряды, что представляет угрозу континентальной части США и их вооружённым силам на региональном театре военных действий. Отмечается, что в 2022 году на военном параде в Пхеньяне была продемонстрирована ракета межконтинентальной дальности. Упоминается также о наличии у КНДР ракет меньшей, промежуточной и средней дальности, которые в состоянии создавать угрозы вооружённым силам США, их союзникам и партнёрам. Высказано мнение, что республика продолжит программу усовершенствования баллистических ракет независимо от развития американской внутриконтинентальной и региональной системы ПРО.

Относительно Ирана сказано, что он располагает большим числом ракет различных классов и БпЛА, количество которых наращивается. Это позволяет ему занимать первое место на Ближнем Востоке по этому показателю. Указанные средства расценены как угроза Соединённым Штатам, их союзникам и партнёрам, расположенным в том регионе и за его пределами. Но, как признаётся, эти средства не в состоянии достичь Американского континента. Иран также развивает национальную военную космическую программу, которая трактуется как содействующая развитию ракетных вооружений большой дальности.

Негосударственные субъекты, под которыми понимаются террористические формирования, также представляют растущую угрозу для США, их союзников и партнёров на Ближнем Востоке и в Африке. В обзоре утверждается, что эти субъекты используют для достижения своих целей различные ракеты, реактивные снаряды и дроны, а также ракетные технологии, которые передают им противники Соединённых Штатов.

В кратком разделе выделены, кроме того, угрозы, создаваемые БпЛА, которые приобретают эффективные тактико-технические характеристики, в том числе ударные свойства крылатых ракет. Такие дроны широко используются государственными военными структурами и террористическими группировками. Наиболее перспективной названа тактика использования ударных дронов-камикадзе в сочетании с ракетными системами для нанесения залповых ударов.

– Как известно, систему ПРО США изначально создавали на их континентальной части. Какие задачи ставит на этом направлении новая стратегия в сфере ПРО?

– «Противоракетный обзор 2022 года» напоминает, что внутриконтинентальная система ПРО обеспечивает защиту от ракетного нападения всех 50 штатов и островных территорий страны, а также федерального округа Колумбия, где расположена столица Вашингтон. Соответствующие операционные базы системы ПРО расположены на Аляске и в Калифорнии. В противоракетную архитектуру также входят соответствующие сенсоры космического базирования и интегрированная командно-управляющая система перехвата ракет.

Вместе с тем в документе признаётся, что внутриконтинентальная система ПРО не в состоянии обеспечить перехват «крупных и перспективных» китайских и российских ракет всех трёх видов базирования, а лишь способна поставить заслон перед северокорейскими и иранскими ракетами.

Соединённые Штаты намерены заменить уже устаревшие ракеты-перехватчики наземного базирования типа GBI, установленные на континентальной части страны, на новые, которые именуются как «перехватчики следующего поколения» (в оригинале: «Next Generation Interceptor» или сокращённо «NGI»). Как ожидается, они будут развёрнуты примерно в 2028 году. По словам представителя Пентагона на одном из брифингов, в настоящее время планируется приобрести 20 таких перехватчиков. Временная шкала и план развёртывания в «Противоракетном обзоре 2022 года» не указаны.

Будет развиваться структура активной и пассивной ПРО на острове Гуам. Его защита, которая должна включать в себя различные средства противоракетной обороны, будет способствовать, как указано в обзоре, общей целостности комплексного сдерживания и укреплению оперативной стратегии США в Индо-Тихоокеанском регионе.

– Каким образом будут усиливаться региональные системы ПРО США?

– Соединённые Штаты будут продолжать развивать тесное взаимодействие в сфере повышения эффективности системы ПРО в Европе – как с государствами – членами НАТО, так и не входящими в этот военный блок странами. Сохранится действующая операционная база системы ПРО в Румынии (Девеселу), достроят аналогичный комплекс в Польше (Редзиково близ Слупска). На испанской военно-морской базе в Роте будет по-прежнему находиться группа постоянного базирования из четырёх эсминцев ВМС США с боевой информационно-управляющей системой «Иджис» и ракетами-перехватчиками. Эсминцы, кстати, регулярно заходят в Чёрное море.

Имеются ещё две крупные системы ПРО США регионального значения. Эти системы расположены в зоне Персидского залива, а также в районе западной части Тихого океана. Они будут укрепляться путём расширения и усовершенствования интегрированной системы ПВО-ПРО с целью отражения любых видов ракетных угроз.

В связи с этим подчёркнуто, что сотрудничество в данной области с региональными государствами, разделяющими военно-политические взгляды с США, является решающим. Такое сотрудничество запланировано развивать по линии повышения степени интеграции и оперативного взаимодействия систем ПРО, а также путём обмена различной информацией о региональных и глобальных ракетных угрозах Соединённым Штатам, их союзникам и партнёрам.

Обращено внимание на противодействие ракетным гиперзвуковым угрозам. Вашингтон стал проявлять интерес к проведению совместных НИОКР по отражению гиперзвуковых угроз с ключевыми союзниками и партнёрами.

– Американская сторона уделяет повышенное внимание новым прорывным технологиям, в том числе в сфере ПРО…

– Да, ставится задача разрабатывать и внедрять прорывные и инновационные технологии. С их помощью Пентагон намерен повысить эффективность сенсоров системы перехвата ракет, обеспечивающих обнаружение ракетных угроз на территориальном, региональном и глобальном уровнях, в том числе с помощью сенсоров космического базирования. Обновлённые сенсоры системы ПРО призваны быстро обнаруживать гиперзвуковые системы противников, идентифицировать их разделяющиеся головные части индивидуального наведения, а также блокировать средства их противодействия противоракетным средствам США.

По словам начальника штаба сухопутных войск генерала Джеймса Макконвилла, ряд скоординированных технологий – от оружия направленной энергии до перспективных радаров – готовится к развёртыванию в ближайшие месяцы. В частности, разрабатывается армейская интегрированная система ПВО-ПРО. Она должна на основе использования текущих и будущих технологий связать датчики, ударные вооружения и средства управления в общую интегрированную систему управления огнём на всех эшелонах. На вооружение этой системы уже начал поступать пассивный радар ALPS дальнего действия, который обеспечит непрерывное наблюдение с покрытием 360 градусов.

Кроме наземной ПРО, Вашингтоном активно развивается морская составляющая этой системы. При этом используются универсальные пусковые установки Мк-41, которые позволяют применять не только противоракеты, но и ударные средства – крылатые ракеты большой дальности «Томагавк».

– Довольно много говорится, что США стремятся за счёт развития глобальной системы ПРО получить возможность нанесения безответного ракетно-ядерного удара по любой неугодной им стране. Идёт ли об этом речь в обзоре?

– В открытой его части ничего не говорится на этот счёт. Не исключено, что эти положения зафиксированы в секретной части обзора. Однако вы правы, и это подтверждают заявления американских экспертов, что США размещают комплексы ПРО у границ обозначенных ими противников с целью получить возможность нанесения по их территории внезапного ядерного удара и защититься от ответного. Известно также, что Пентагон разрабатывает концепцию «достартового» уничтожения межконтинентальных баллистических ракет России, Китая и любой страны, а также их поражения на стадии разгона. То есть они должны быть поражены в своих шахтах до того, как будут запущены, или до набора маршевой скорости.

В Пентагоне не скрывают, что на базе универсальных пусковых установок Mk-41 системы ПРО создают наземные пусковые установки по программе «Потенциал средней дальности» (Mid-Range Capability или в сокращении MRC) под ту же дозвуковую крылатую ракету «Томагавк» и многоцелевую сверхзвуковую ракету-перехватчик SM-6. Именно они могут быть использованы при нанесении упреждающего ракетно-ядерного удара.

США также планируют создать космический эшелон с ударными средствами ПРО для поражения баллистических ракет на ранних стадиях их полёта, по сути, возродив концепцию «звездных войн» администрации Рейгана. При этом не исключается возможность использования этих средств для нанесения превентивного или упреждающего ядерного удара по объектам России и Китая и любой другой страны, которую в Вашингтоне сочтут опасной для себя.

США не распространяют какие-то количественные и пространственные ограничения на свою систему ПРО после того, как они официально вышли из Договора по ПРО в одностороннем порядке в июне 2002 года.

Беседовал Владимир Кузарь. Источник: «Красная звезда»

 

Владимир Козин: Американские самолеты F-16 в руках ВСУ не остановят армию России

НАТО никогда не признает, что участие Альянса в агрессии против России может привести к третьей мировой войне, но делает все в этом направлении. Встреча стран G7 подтвердила готовность Украины, НАТО и Евросоюза продолжать войну до последнего украинца

Известный политолог, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин в интервью изданию Украина.ру прокомментировал результаты встречи «Большой семерки» и создание авиационной коалиции Лондоном и Амстердамом.

— Владимир Петрович, была ли встреча G7, на ваш взгляд, значимой с точки зрения влияния на украинский конфликт? Стоит ли придавать значение заявлениям о поставках F-16 ВСУ или это опять слова с целью запугать Россию?

— Да, к сожалению, эта встреча вновь обозначила готовность Украины, НАТО и Евросоюза продолжать масштабную агрессию против России до последнего украинца и войну по истощению нашей страны.

Следует придавать серьезное значение заявлениям о поставках истребителей- бомбардировщиков F-16, поскольку они являются авиасредствами двойного назначения, то есть способными нести на борту как обычные, так и ядерные боезаряды.

— Лондон и Амстердам договорились создать коалицию для поставок F-16 Киеву. Почему сейчас и почему именно эти страны?

— Названные государства являются самыми активными по поставкам различных видов вооружений и военной техники Украине и готовы придерживаться такой линии впредь. Кроме того, Нидерланды заменяют имеющиеся у них F-16 на более современные многоцелевые F-35, способные нести ядерное оружие.

— Истребителям F-16 более 45 лет. Помогут ли такие старые самолеты?

— По дате первоначального производства F-16 действительно не очень новые. Но в результате проведенных неоднократных модернизаций они до сих пор находятся на вооружении США и многих других стран НАТО и по-прежнему являются носителями ядерного оружия американцев.

Их поставка однозначно приведет к эскалации противостояния между Востоком и Западом. Но поставка таких самолетов в ВСУ не остановит активное и поступательное противодействие России против агрессии Украины и НАТО.

— По словам военных экспертов, на Украине нет специализированных аэродромов, которые смогут обслуживать F-16. Получается, самолеты могут взлетать только из Польши и других граничащих с Украиной государств. Если это произойдет, по сути НАТО вступит в прямой конфликт с Россией. Альянс готов спровоцировать третью мировую войну?

— На Украине есть военные аэродромы, которые смогут обслуживать F-16. Кроме того, такие самолеты могут использовать военные аэродромы, расположенные на территории государств Балтии (через воздушное пространство Польши), а также Болгарии, Польши, Румынии, Словакии и других стран — членов НАТО.

Альянс никогда не признает, что его участие в агрессии против России может привести к третьей мировой войне, но фактически это так. НАТО делает все в этом направлении.

— Готова ли Россия будет ударить по НАТО, в случае если из Польши или упомянутых вами стран что-то прилетит на наши территории?

— Пока нет четких официальных ответов на этот вопрос. Но думаю, Россия должна быть готова к этому — ударить по всем этим странам комбинированными высокоточными средствами.

Объектами таких ответных мер могут быть национальные и военные аэродромы, передаваемые для использования украинским военно-воздушным силам; ангары хранения; склады боеприпасов и горюче-смазочные материалы для авиасредств названных государств.

— Советник президента США по национальной безопасности Джейк Салливан заявил, что США не позволят Украине использовать американские и западные вооружения для ударов по России, но Крым — это Украина. Получается США дали добро Украине для нанесения ударов по полуострову и одобрили развязывание ядерной войны?

— Не следует питать иллюзий по поводу подобных заявлений, идущих как из Вашингтона, так и Киева. Такие обещания никогда не выполнялись при применении вооружений и военной техники наземного базирования против России. Не будут они реализованы и применительно к ударным украинским воздушным средствам.

Беседовала Анна Черкасова. Источник: Украина.ру

 

 

Владимир Козин: Время пустых дискуссий по ПРО США истекло

Беседа с автором нашумевшей книги «Эволюция противоракетной обороны США и позиция России» Владимиром Козиным - главным советником-руководителем Группы советников директора РИСИ, член-корреспондентом РАЕН.

- Владимир Петрович, практически при всех контактах российских политиков и руководства НАТО в последние годы главной проблемой была одна. Москва убеждала Вашингтон и Брюссель в необходимости отказаться от размещения американской системы ПРО в Европе. И все – безрезультатно. Более того, представители Североатлантического блока использовали эти встречи для заверений в своем миролюбии, то есть в пропагандистских целях. Мы поняли всю тщетность своих дипломатических усилий, когда в последний день октября Владимир Путин упразднил межведомственную рабочую группу по взаимодействию с НАТО в области противоракетной обороны. Куда, кстати, входили и вы. Все, тупик?

- Президент поступил совершенно правильно и своевременно, время пустых дискуссий, когда в Брюсселе и Вашингтоне только и занимались словоблудием на тему «укрепления мира во всем мире», истекло. Совсем недавно, 23 октября, в Брюсселе состоялось заседание Совета Россия-НАТО на уровне министров обороны государств-участников. Естественно, одной из главных тем обсуждения стал американский план по размещению системы ПРО в Старом свете. Не скажу ничего нового: и на этот раз мы не нашли общего языка с руководством Североатлантического блока.

Так есть ли у нас еще надежды убедить американцев в необходимости свернуть план европейской ПРО? Или же это иллюзии, с которыми нам следует побыстрее расстаться?

Думаю, вопрос риторический. Но, чтобы не выглядеть уж полным пессимистом, отвечу так: надежды есть, но они крайне малы. Судите сами: после официального выхода США в одностороннем порядке из Договора по ПРО, который сдерживал качественное и количественное распространение противоракетных средств, в том числе ограничивал их размещение сугубо национальной территорией СССР - затем России - и США, прошло 11 лет. Все это время Вашингтон, попросту говоря, водил нас за нос по поводу возможного взаимодействия в этой сфере. Результат дискуссий нулевой. И, по мере расширения географии размещения ударных средств ПРО США в различных европейских государствах и на боевых кораблях, а также наращивания их количества эти надежды будут таять все быстрее.

США и НАТО откровенно хотят получить полную свободу действий: количественно и качественно наращивать свой противоракетный потенциал. Разумеется, аргумент о важности противодействия «ракетной угрозе Тегерана и Пхеньяна» - лишь предлог для создания глобального «противоракетного щита», прикрывающего собственные американские ракетно-ядерные средства. Позиция Москвы понятна и проста: программа развертывания американской ПРО США имеет откровенно антироссийскую и антикитайскую направленность. Она непосредственно угрожает стратегическим ядерным силам России и КНР. Именно поэтому мы говорим о необходимости принять адекватные ответные меры.

- Знаете, большинству из наших сограждан непонятна эта часто используемая формулировка насчет «адекватных мер». Думаю, большое упущение российской пропаганды заключается в том, что так и не доведены до общества сведения о конкретных ответных шагах. Вы – автор недавно вышедшей монографии «Эволюция противоракетной обороны США и позиция России». Так вам и объяснять читателям, чем мы ответим Североатлантическому блоку.

- У нас впереди еще примерно год, не более того, в течение которого мы можем постараться убедить Барака Обаму и руководство НАТО отказаться от плана размещения противоракетной инфраструктуры у наших рубежей. Плана, который его разработчики назвали вполне невинно - «Европейским поэтапным адаптивным подходом». То есть США и НАТО должны прекратить создавать свои базы ПРО в Румынии и Польше, а также не направлять свои корабли с ракетами-перехватчиками к берегам России. Либо, как верно замечено, Москве следует еще раз огласить весь комплекс ответных мер на этот сценарий. Но, уверен, он должен быть более масштабным, чем те, которые уже были названы. Но эти ответные меры, как видно, не произвели на Вашингтон должного воздействия: он явочным порядком продолжает внедрение «противоракетного заслона» у наших рубежей, не отказываясь от программы ЕПАП. Время от времени наше министерство обороны весьма кратко сообщает, что у нас созданы ракеты, которым вся эта система американской ПРО – как орешек, который мы легко «щелкнем». Появляются и другие, отрывочные сведения.

Американцы, как показывает история наших военно-политических взаимоотношений, адекватно понимают только военную мощь, а не уговоры. Так, например, было в 60-70-е годы прошлого века, когда в США живо обсуждали противоракетную проблематику. Об этом свидетельствуют мемуары ныне покойного сенатора Эдварда Кеннеди, брата убитого президента Джона Кеннеди, заместителя государственного секретаря Строуба Тэлботта и других высокопоставленных американских деятелей.

Не уверен, что в Вашингтоне и Брюсселе представляют себе все возможности нашего военного потенциала. Точно так же у наших сограждан нет полной картины обороноспособности России. Следует емко и подробно – не выдавая военных тайн, понятно – проинформировать тех, кого мы называем «западными партнерами» о том, что мы действительно можем достойно ответить на развертывание системы ПРО в Европе у нашего порога. Да ведь и мы с вами тоже должны знать это. Пока более широкого «протокола о намерениях» у нас не огласили. Или – не свели разрозненные данные воедино. А ведь пора…

- Давайте уточним. Среди российских экспертов есть и такие, кто считает, что система ПРО США - это «виртуальная реальность» и что она вообще «не существует». Соответственно, они широко популяризируют свои взгляды, тем самым прямо или косвенно обвиняя Россию в том, что она стала инициатором гонки вооружений.

- Увы, американская система ПРО - реальность. Выполнен первый этап и осуществляется второй этап ЕПАП. Сегодня США и их союзники располагают высокомобильными противоракетными средствами в количествах, явно превышающих потребности парирования ракетных угроз. Не более чем двум десяткам ракет Ирана и КНДР, имеющим дальность действия от одной до двух тысяч километров, противостоят около двух сотен перехватчиков «Стэндард-3» различных модификаций, ракет-перехватчиков наземного базирования на континентальной части США, а также системы ПРО театра военных действий. Вместе с зенитно-ракетными комплексами «Пэтриот» суммарное количество американских средств ПРО уже переваливает за тысячу. Кстати, замечу: США поставляют эти ЗРК в 12 стран мира: как государствам, входящим в НАТО, так и не членам Североатлантического блока. К моменту завершения ЕПАП общее количество всех ракет-перехватчиков с маркой «Сделано в США» многократно возрастет.

Как известно, корабли ВМС США, оснащенные системами ПРО, уже давно приступили к постоянному патрулированию морей, прилегающих к Европе, а также в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе и зоне Персидского залива. А 28 октября этого года был заложен первый камень в фундамент противоракетного комплекса в Румынии – на военно-воздушной базе в Девеселу.

Есть и другие, менее известные факты. По данным на октябрь, Пентагон уже провел 34 испытания ракет-перехватчиков морского базирования, из которых 28 были успешными. В целом, с учетом всех программ «обкатки» этих средств и морского, и наземного базирования, американцы провели 80 испытаний, из них 64 были успешными. Это высокий показатель, и в министерстве обороны США делают все, чтобы его повысить.

Российские же «миротворцы», убеждая в безобидности программы развертывания системы ПРО, часто ссылаются на заявление министра обороны США Чака Хейгела, которое он сделал 15 марта этого года. Глава Пентагона объявил о некоторой «реконфигурации» этой системы - как в региональном, так и в глобальном масштабе. И даже намекнул на то, что США  якобы отказались от реализации четвертого этапа «Европейского поэтапного адаптивного подхода». Давайте будем реалистами. Даже в официальных комментариях Вашингтона по этому поводу четко говорилось: новые планы нынешней американской администрации никак не связаны с позицией Москвы по данной проблеме. Речь шла о том, что причины «реконфигурации» системы перехвата баллистических и иных ракет - бюджетные и инженерно-технические. Поэтому попытки представить эти действия Соединенных Штатов как некую готовность учитывать мнение России выглядят, по меньшей мере, некорректными.

- Можно ли кратко обрисовать, каким именно образом будет нарушен примерный баланс сил в ходе развертывания системы ПРО?

- Уже на третьем этапе реализации ЕПАП американские средства противоракетной обороны смогут полностью перехватывать российские межконтинентальные баллистические ракеты наземного базирования и баллистические ракеты подводных лодок. Частично они будут способны делать это и раньше, замечу. Уже сейчас стратегические РЛС США, расположенные за их пределами, «просматривают» всю территорию Российской Федерации. Москва неоднократно демонстрировала западным военным и гражданским экспертам результаты математического моделирования в привязке к местности, а также с учетом скорости и дальности полета американских ракет-перехватчиков. Справедливость таких результатов была подтверждена и расчетами независимых зарубежных специалистов.

Усовершенствованные противоракеты США типа «Стэндард-3» модификации 2А, которые будут размещены в Польше к 2018 году, американские корабли с ударно-боевыми противоракетными средствами – они уже появляются в Балтийском, Баренцевом, Средиземном, Норвежском и Черном морях - способны осуществлять перехват отдельных типов российских баллистических ракет.При этом надо учитывать, что Пентагон тщательно скрывает истинные тактико-технические характеристики ракет, которые со временем обязательно будут совершенствоваться.

В США не отказались от создания ракет-перехватчиков «Стэндард-3» модификации 2Б, которые по своим тактико-техническим характеристикам превосходят все предыдущие варианты ракет-перехватчиков «третьего эшелона». Научно-исследовательские и опытно-конструкторские работы в этом направлении идут, производство новейших ракет просто отодвигается на период после 2022 года, на который продлевается ЕПАП. Так что Вашингтон вовсе не собирается отказываться от четвертого этапа своего плана. Фактически его полная реализация просто откладывается на два года из-за финансово-технических трудностей. При этом военно-политическое руководство США настроено на разработку последующего плана типа ЕПАП даже после 2030 года. Он будет предусматривать еще более активное развертывание ракет-перехватчиков в различных районах земного шара, и вновь - в непосредственной близости от Российской Федерации и КНР. Появятся на вооружении ракеты-перехватчики с «кассетными» боеголовками, лазерные средства уничтожения баллистических ракет, ракеты-перехватчики, устанавливаемые на борту тяжелых беспилотных летательных аппаратов и так далее.

Надо обязательно добавить: все эти средства ПРО будут действовать в органической «сцепке» с американскими тактическими ядерными средствами и обычными вооружениями, развернутыми в Европе. Ведь это - средства передового базирования США.

Американцы неоднократно пыталась убеждать нас в том, что ракеты-перехватчики, даже в модификации 2Б, неспособны поражать МБР на начальном этапе их полета. Но действия американских и японских боевых кораблей с системами ПРО во время пуска северокорейской ракеты «Ынха-3» в декабре прошлого года, а также уничтожение еще в 2008 году на высоте 247 км прямым попаданием «с одного выстрела» американского разведывательного спутника, вышедшего из строя, заставляют серьезно усомниться в декларируемой «безобидности» американских средств ПРО.

К 2015 году в Румынии и к 2018 году в Польше запланировано размещение установок вертикального пуска «Мк-41» в виде комплексов ПРО, переделанных из морских установок боевой информационно-управляющей системы «Иджис». Дело в том, что эти установки одновременно применяются на кораблях ВМС США для пусков крылатых ракет большой дальности, которые пока не ограничиваются международными соглашениями. Так что, комплексы США в Румынии и Польше потенциально могут быть использованы для размещения ударных средств передового базирования класса «земля-земля».

Что касается словесных заверений Вашингтона, что «это не против России», давайте не будем воспринимать их всерьез. К тому же недавно американские ВМС разместили заявку на разработку технологий ударного сверхзвукового оружия, которое можно будет размещать в тех же пусковых установках на боевых кораблях, что и ракеты-перехватчики «Стэндард-3», а также в Румынии и Польше.

- Понятно, что все это – лишь краткий анализ той угрозы, которую несет для нашей страны размещение американской ПРО. Монография «Эволюция противоракетной обороны США и позиция России» - исследование подробное. Читателей много?

- Об этой книге очень хорошо отозвались и военные, и гражданские российские специалисты. Многие министерства и ведомства, а также различные исследовательские институты в России дали позитивные оценки этому итогу многих лет работы. Мне известно, что она вызвала интерес в штаб-квартире НАТО и в США, а также в Европарламенте. С учетом этого монография уже переведена на английский язык. Книга раскупается быстро.

Упреждая возможный вопрос о том, верю ли я, что моя работа может повлиять на позицию НАТО и Вашингтона, отвечу: очень на это надеюсь. Только вот, исходя из существующих реалий, мало в это верю. Но разъяснения нужны, так как часто бывает, что сила аргументов действует сильнее, чем аргументы силы.

Беседу вел Виктор Грибачев
Источник: Столетие 11.11.2013

Владимир Козин: Второй раз России выпадает миссия - искоренить нацизм

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "ОТРажение" на канале ОТР.

Ведущий Александр Денисов.


В.П. Козин: "Второй раз России выпадает миссия - искоренить нацизм. Мы должны выполнить её достойно и нормальные люди будут благодарны нам столетиями".

 


Эфир от 17 мая 2022г.

Владимир Козин: За каждую новую ракету НАТО по России Украина будет терять новый "Южмаш"

Владимир Зеленский может получить ядерное оружие от Запада, но кнопку "Пуск" нажмет не он. В свою очередь, Россия имеет полное право использовать любые вооружения, чтобы остановить НАТО и Украину.

Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России, историк, дипломат Владимир Козин рассказал в интервью изданию Украина.ру о том, куда полетят следующие "Орешники", "Кинжалы" и "Искандеры", в случае если Запад не остановит агрессию.

В НАТО обсуждают нанесение превентивных высокоточных ударов по территории России в случае вооружённого конфликта, заявил глава Военного комитета блока адмирал Роб Бауэр на пресс-конференции в Брюсселе в Европейском полицейском центре, трансляция которой велась на YouTube-канале центра 25 ноября.

Ранее, 21 ноября, газета The New York Times сообщила, что чиновники из США и Европы предложили вернуть Киеву ядерное оружие, от которого Украина отказалась после распада СССР.

— Владимир Петрович, на Западе заговорили о возможности передачи Украине ядерного оружия. Если такое произойдет, какие возможны шаги с нашей стороны? Ведь Зеленский хочет спровоцировать Россию на применение тактического ядерного оружия по Украине, чтобы привести нас к изоляции в мире.

— Во-первых, по состоянию на сегодняшний день, 27 ноября 2024 года, ни Джо Байден, ни министр обороны, ни госсекретарь США не сделали заявлений о возможной передаче американского ядерного оружия Украине.

Поскольку Украина и НАТО ведут против России необъявленную масштабную агрессию, заявления, подобные тому, что попало в The New York Times, вполне естественны. Есть информация, а есть дезинформация.

Но мы должны учитывать любые подобные утечки: не важно, касается это ядерных технологий, обычных вооружений или средств доставки.

Во-вторых, американцы никогда не передавали даже натовским союзникам ядерного оружия. Да, они разместили на территории 4 европейских государств и азиатской части Турции свои ядерные вооружения, но контроль над ядерной кнопкой, если можно выразиться так, остается в руках США.

Поэтому не уверен, что американцы действительно планируют передать Зеленскому ядерное оружие с правом нажатия кнопки "Пуск" для удара по территории России. Это было бы грубым нарушением Статьи 1 Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия со стороны США и Статьи 2 со стороны Украины, которая, допустим, согласилась бы принять оружие массового поражения.

Конечно, подобных вещей психически неуравновешенному бывшему президенту Украины, а сейчас рядовому гражданину Зеленскому не стоит передавать ни под каким соусом. Это крайне опасно.н: кто он

— Но все-таки, допустим, оружие Зеленскому передадут. Что тогда?

— Первое. Украина в этом случае использует ядерное оружие и нанесет по российской территории первый ядерный удар. Тогда (и это не подлежит никакому сомнению) она как государство будет полностью уничтожена ответным ядерным ударом.

При этом речь пойдет не о разрушении какого-то завода Военно-промышленного комплекса (ВПК) или администрации президента на Банковой улице в Киеве — будет уничтожена вся военная машина Украины. Об этом, я считаю, мы должны сделать специальное заявление.

Второе. Мы можем использовать наши ядерные технологии в соответствии с обновленной доктриной, которая называется "Основы госполитики России в области ядерного сдерживания". И результат для Украины будет точно такой же как в первом случае.

Мы имеем на это право. Украина инициировала агрессию сначала на Донбассе, а позднее — против России. Кстати, в нашей ноябрьской ядерной доктрине везде употребляется слово "агрессия" [Запада, Украины]. Нам нужно это учитывать во всех политических заявлениях России.

Что еще важно? Как известно, ядерное оружие и другие неядерные виды вооружения в основном доставляются на Украину (и не только туда) со стороны НАТО военно-транспортной авиацией. Поэтому Россия должна объявить все воздушное пространство Украины зоной, закрытой для полетов любой военной авиации (кроме гражданской, естественно).

Тогда НАТО и Киев четко будут знать, что любой тяжелый транспорт, который везет боеприпасы, ракеты большой дальности, противотанковые средства для ВСУ, будет нами уничтожен при пересечении воздушной границы Украиной в ее западной части.

Кстати, самолеты F-16, которые Украине собираются передать Дания и Нидерланды от имени натовской коалиции, являются сертифицированными средствами доставки ядерного оружия тактического назначения.

Мы не знаем, получила ли Украина все самолеты или только часть, один был даже сбит их собственными силами. Но не было никаких официальных заявлений. Вполне возможно, что полный самолетный пакет либо уже передан ВСУ, либо это планируют сделать — как раньше делали с другими системами.

— Владимир Петрович, но ведь война-то идет не с Украиной, а с Западом. От того, что мы по Украине нанесем удар, неважно какого рода, что изменится? Ведь по США и Европе не прилетает, и они в ус не дуют…

— Обновленная 19 ноября этого года ядерная доктрина как раз предусматривает нанесение ударов и по тем странам, которые используют против нас любые виды вооружений. Используют же США дальнобойные системы ATACMS, Британия и Франция — Storm Shadow/SCALP. Тем более Макрон об этом заявил после того, как мы сделали соответствующее предупреждение о нанесении ответных ядерных ударов.

Чтобы наши слова не оказались лишь политическими заявлениями, без реальных материальных последствий, необходимо совершать действия. Нужно, как говорят, власть употребить, а не просто призывать к порядку.

Мы неоднократно говорили про разные "красные линии" и приучили такими заявлениями [Запад], что за ними не стоят конкретные дела с нашей стороны.

— Какие мы можем предпринять меры на практике, как вы считаете?

— В Польше находится военный аэродром Жешув, куда садятся американские самолеты с грузами тяжелой военно-транспортной авиации. Почему этот хаб до сих пор спокойно существует? Почему на территории Чешской республики приземляются самолеты стратегической тяжелой авиации США — носители ядерного оружия?

И вообще, на территории 19 стран – членов НАТО, европейских союзников США, американские самолеты стратегической ударной авиации, по сути дела, используют "воздушный шенген", безвиз — без всякого предупреждения. Явочным порядком машины садятся, летают, патрулируют.

— Хорошо, мы нанесем удар по этим аэродромам в Польше или Чехии. Но ведь тогда нас обвинят, что Россия первая развязала войну против НАТО. И что тогда? Как наши союзники на это отреагируют?

— Не мы развязываем войну. Я хочу это особенно подчеркнуть. Войну развязала Украина 14 апреля 2014 года [когда Киев официально начал военные действия на Донбассе по указу "самоназванного президента" Александра Турчинова о начале операции на юго-востоке страны].

Любые наши ответные действия — это защита российского суверенитета и территориальной целости. Почему же мы должны стесняться: "ах, как бы о нас плохо не подумали". Считаю, что мы имеем священное право давать полный ответ настоящему агрессору — коварному, злобному, неуступчивому, а также его союзникам по НАТО.

— Ранее генерал Игорь Кириллов заявил о том, что ВСУ располагают "грязной бомбой", созданной из радиоактивных распадающихся материалов. Это не первое заявление Минобороны России о нарушении Украиной договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия. Может ли так случиться, что Зеленский применит именно "грязную бомбу" против нас?

— От человека, который скатился со всех катушек (я имею в виду гражданина Зеленского), всего можно ожидать. Тем более он пользуется колоссальной военно-политической поддержкой уходящего американского президента Джо Байдена. В условиях, когда новоизбранный президент Дональд Трамп – старший молчит.

Известны украинские научно-исследовательские центры и промышленные предприятия, где может быть создана "грязная" ядерная бомба. По ним, считаю, России необходимо нанести превентивный неядерный удар — "Орешниками", "Кинжалами", "Искандерами". И не стоит боятся осуждения, иначе можно завести ситуацию в тупик.

Повторяю, мы — жертва агрессии. За нами священное право ответить любым способом. Гипотетический пример: когда около себя вы видите злоумышленника с автоматом, который может вас убить, что вы сделаете? Если вы не откроете по нему огонь, он вас убьет. Вот и выбирайте: либо он вас, либо вы его.

Еще важный момент. Мы знаем о том, что Зеленский отдавал приказы об ударах по Запорожской атомной электростанции (ЗАЭС). К сожалению, в информационно-разъяснительной работе мы лишь недавно сообщили количество таких ударов по ЗАЭС, по прилегающей территории и по соседнему городу Энергодар, где живут инженеры-атомщики.

Курскую АЭС украинские силы хотели взять с целью атомного шантажа.

Тут то же самое. Должны быть уничтожены средства нападения на все АЭС. Необходимо разрабатывать меры по нейтрализации таких угроз.

— Почему избранный президент США Дональд Трамп до сих пор не прокомментировал удары вглубь России, заявления Владимира Путина по ядерному оружию и новейшей ракете "Орешник"? Что за этим стоит?

— Дональд Трамп действительно заявил готовность завершить украинский кризис, как он выразился, за 24 часа. Но хочу особо обратить внимание: его программа срочно завершить конфликт на Украине остается неясной по двум причинам.

Во-первых, никакой детализации этого плана он не предоставил. И вряд ли будет оглашать таковую, пока не вступил в должность 20 января следующего года.

Во-вторых, здесь есть вполне уместный вопрос к коллегам, которые проявляют радушный оптимизм по поводу заявлений Трампа на тему Украины: "Вы уверены, что Трамп готов решить эту проблему в интересах Российской Федерации?". Я думаю, нет.

Это будет скорее сделано в пользу интересов Украины и НАТО (США как главной скрипки альянса). Поэтому лично меня оптимистический настрой Трампа не успокаивает и не убаюкивает, а лишь вызывает много вопросов.

Почему Дональд Трамп не прокомментировал удары вглубь территории России со стороны США и Великобритании? Если бы он был заинтересован в прекращении агрессии Украины и НАТО против нас, то давно уже выступил против такого решения.

Есть еще один момент, на который я бы хотел обратить внимание. У Трампа есть хороший привилегированный друг — Илон Маск, который поддерживает свою собственную информационно-разведывательную программу Starlink. А она работает в интересах Украины.

Почему Трамп, если он искренне заинтересован в прекращении украинского конфликта, не посоветовал Маску приостановить эту деятельность, которая способствует затягиванию кризиса, усиливая ВСУ?Я даже направил письмо сыну Дональда Трампа с предложением ответить на этот вопрос. Но реакции не получил.

Кроме того, в политике господина Трампа меня беспокоит еще кое-что. Во время его прошлого президентского срока были опубликованы 6 ключевых военных стратегий США: стратегия по нацбезопасности, по нацобороне, ядерная стратегия, противоракетная, военно-космическая и киберстратегия.

Они наверняка будут препарированы, когда он вступит должность, но суть останется. И они тоже будут мешать Трампу разрешить украинский кризис. Исходя из всего вышесказанного я не уверен, что Трамп пойдет на какие-то реальные шаги, чтобы урегулировать конфликт, спонсируемый Белым домом.

— В завершении несколько слово о том, как вы отреагировали на удар российского "Орешника" по объекту ВПК Украины?

— Как известно мы сильно повредили "Южмаш", но больше таких целей не уничтожаем. Однако мы видим, что последовали удары американскими ATACMS по военным объектам в Курской и Брянской областях.

Я считаю, нужно четко заявить от имени нашего руководства, что каждый раз, когда США, Британия или Франция будет использовать дальнобойные ракеты против России (и не важно по каким объектам они будут бить: гражданским или военным), каждый раз мы будем умножать удар по "Южмашу" в 2-3 раза.

То есть увеличивать количество поражаемых критически важных объектов на территории Украины. Единственное — следует предупредить об этом гражданское население, которое работает на таких предприятиях.

Беседовала Анна Черкасова. Источник: Украина.ру

 

 

Владимир Козин: Мы должны заставить себя уважать, признавать наши геополитические интересы, интересы нашей истории и нашей огромной территории

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе "ОТРажение" на телеканале ОТР

***

Александр Денисов: Успех в военной операции ведет и к успеху в экономике. Тут, конечно, можно спорить, что это – экономика подстраивается под военные нужды и превращается в некий оборонный редут, который врагам не преодолеть, или специальная операция ускоряет процессы суверенизации промышленности, сельского хозяйства, микроэлектроники?

В общем, факт, что наши успехи очевидны не только для нас, но и – что не менее важно – для дружественных партнеров. Как говорят на Петербургском форуме – правильных партнеров. А правильных немало, съехались представители 140 стран.

Это программа «ОТРажение». Взглянем на ход специальной военной операции сегодня именно из залов форума – что логично, раз это единый процесс укрепления страны. Обороноспособность – это не только армия, это еще и армия экономистов, предпринимателей, ученых, инженеров, которые и собрались в Петербурге.

Поэтому характерен вопрос, с которым обратился к ним депутат Андрей Макаров, он вел утреннее заседание, посвященное современным вызовам и точкам опоры в нашей экономике.

Андрей Макаров, депутат Государственной Думы РФ: Умоляю правдиво и не думая о последствиях поднять руку тем, кто в зале считает себя оптимистом. Это не касается президиума, они оптимисты по должности. Так, еще раз можно, чтобы я… Коллеги, подавляющее большинство.

Александр Денисов: Да, мы тоже поднимем руку. На чем основывается этот оптимизм? На понимании исторического процесса, трезвом восприятии возникающих проблем и появляющихся перспектив. Как президент накануне форума сказал молодым ученым и предпринимателям: «Не нужно пугаться: ах, что происходит? Но не стоит и выжидать».

Максим Орешкин, помощник президента РФ, в 2016–2020 гг. министр экономического развития РФ: То, что происходит сейчас в мире – это на самом деле не какая-то краткосрочная история, а это очень глубинные изменения, глубинные изменения в геополитике. Если обратиться даже к выступлениям президента, то он в Давосе выступал полтора года назад, там же диагноз четко разложен: и стремление к однополярности, которое ведет к противостоянию стран, и проблемы с социальным неравенством в мире, проблемы с макроэкономической политикой. Поэтому все, что сейчас происходит – это одно из звеньев этой большой цепи.

Поэтому ответ на ваш вопрос: как прежде не будет. Здесь других вариантов нет. И чем быстрее управленцы на разных уровнях, в государственном секторе, в частном секторе это осознают, чем быстрее будут выстраивать стратегию из нового понимания того, что происходит, тем лучше будет нашей стране.

Александр Денисов: И тут, конечно, интересен ответ на вопрос: что будет для противников означать наша победа? Как-то Владимир Путин говорил: «Мы – в рай, а они – в ад». Да, он про ядерное противостояние вел речь. Ну а в экономике, похоже, они как раз так и воспринимают ситуацию: в случае проигрыша им – в ад. Неслучайно же посол США Салливан так хвалил Эльвиру Набиуллину, ее профессионализм: укрепила финансовую систему, рубль. Они ожидали, что это мы в преисподнюю отправимся. А вот что с долларом, куда он отправится – спросили сегодня главу Центробанка.

Андрей Макаров: Валютные вклады конфискуют? Дурацкий вопрос.

Эльвира Набиуллина, председатель Банка России рф: Нет.

Андрей Макаров: Нет? Так, хорошо. Доллар запретят?

Эльвира Набиуллина: Нет.

Андрей Макаров: А евро?

Эльвира Набиуллина: Нет.

Андрей Макаров: Ну, в принципе…

Эльвира Набиуллина: У нас еще другие валюты есть. Нет.

Андрей Макаров: Спасибо. Нет? Нет, я не буду перечислять, мы просто дойдем… Не буду перечислять. Спасибо.

Антон Силуанов, министр финансов РФ: Я думаю, американцы и европейцы обрадовались, когда Эльвира Сахипзадовна сказала, что их валюту не запретят.

Андрей Макаров: Антон Германович, вы знаете, меня больше волновало другое. Когда президент Байден сказал, что за доллар дают двести рублей… Я сейчас ищу какие-то выходы на Байдена, чтобы продать по этой цене. Поэтому я о другом.

Антон Силуанов: Вы аккуратно, Андрей Михайлович, ищите. Вообще, слово не воробей.

Андрей Макаров: Ваш совет дорогого стоит.

Александр Денисов: Да, совершенно справедливое замечание: аккуратнее ищите партнеров.

И еще раз вернемся к тому, с чего начали – с трезвого понимания исторического процесса. Надо четко осознавать свое место в мире, в системе глобальной безопасности, в экономике. Наша роль значительнее той, которую нам долгие годы отводили, при этом убеждая, что мы и слабые, и отсталые.

Максим Решетников, министр экономики РФ: Наша экономика значительно сложнее зачастую тех моделей, в которых мы о ней рассуждаем. Она более устойчивая, она готова к росту и она, скажем так, с благодарностью воспринимает вот те послабления, которые мы даем. И мне кажется, что это такой очень важный урок, который нам сейчас нужно понимать.

Александр Денисов: На связи со студией Владимир Петрович Козин, член-корреспондент Российской академии военных наук. Владимир Петрович, добрый вечер.

Владимир Козин: Добрый вечер.

Александр Денисов: Владимир Петрович, вот Максим Решетников сказал, что наша экономика значительно сложнее. Как вы считаете, есть ли у нашей экономики еще такой фактор, который не просчитаешь, и в формулах он в западных учебниках не указан – это мобилизационные возможности? Сравним прошлый век, период военный, послевоенный, да даже предвоенный, период Большого скачка. А что мы сделали в послевоенные годы – это невероятно! Страна в разрухе, а мы и в космос, и спутник, и Гагарин полетел, и первую АЭС открыли. И это 50-е годы. Просто поразительно!

Как вы считаете, наша экономика сейчас показывает, демонстрирует свою мобилизационную возможность?

Владимир Козин: Ну, на сегодняшний день показывает. Я думаю, что в последующем будет еще мощнее показывать, поскольку у нас все есть для этого: природные богатства, огромная территория, супервеликолепные, умные и талантливые люди, труженики честные, те, которые в карман за словом не полезут, те, которые готовы вести все виды внешней государственной деятельности с абсолютно всеми государствами на равных, основываясь на справедливости, взаимной выгоде.

Эти качества нужно передавать нам другим, которых мы раньше называли «недружественные партнеры», «недружественные коллеги», потому что они явно отстали от нас. И опережают многие другие страны псевдопартнеры только по своей наглости и по своему нацистскому представлению о том, кто должен командовать миром, кому надо поставлять оружие. Короче говоря, разорвать вот эту трагическую линию: нацисты помогают нацистам. То есть нацисты в НАТО помогают нацистам на Украине. Студия?

Александр Денисов: Владимир Петрович, раз уж вы об этом речь завели, давайте на них и поглядим, как они направляются в Киев, как едут в поезде: Макрон, Шольц и Драги. Послушаем эту атмосферу.

Владимир Петрович, меня все время удивляет, я смотрю на встречи, как вы говорите, нацистов. И, знаете, атмосфера непринужденная. Как будто они не обсуждают предстоящие карательные операции в Донбассе, на Украине, а как будто они встречаются, ну, поговорить о чем-то легком, о процветании этого мира.

То есть речь идет о карательных операциях – это первое. А второе – у них такое в экономике творится! И это их тоже не смущает. То есть эта атмосфера вдвойне вызывает недоумение. У вас она вызывает недоумение? Почему они так себя ведут?

Владимир Козин: У меня, знаете, вызывает другое недоумение: почему мы до сих пор не поставили всю эту тройку, которая приехала на встречу с Зеленским, и всех остальные государства-члены НАТО, полную тридцатку, их на колени? Мы должны это дело сделать, иначе мы будем постоянно находиться в обороне, постоянно будем по всем направлениям оправдываться, постоянно будем получать новые виды вооружений, которые, пересекая границу Украины с натовскими странами на Западе, вдруг оказываются у границ Донбасса. Это они должны бояться нас, они должны уважать нас.

И пока мы этого не добьемся внутри страны и на международной арене, мы все время будем находиться в положении осуждаемого, осужденного, а различные джентльмены будут улыбаться в поездах, самолетах и на международных встречах. По сути дела, там до сих пор не поняли они свою вину, свою наглость и свою готовность диктовать свою волю другим народам.

Времена прошли. Давайте всем нашим обществом – гражданским, политическим, высшим военно-политическим руководством – продумаем конкретные шаги, чтобы как можно быстрее исправить такую ситуацию, потому что ну невозможно терпеть это бесконечно. Десять лет назад, двадцать лет назад, в конце 45-го года, когда американцы хотели применить ядерное оружие против Советского Союза – победителя в войне, и сейчас то же самое.

Нужно сделать так, чтобы ни одна система западных вооружений, о которых раньше договорились в НАТО и Евросоюзе или которые еще появятся после мадридского саммита НАТО в конце текущего месяца, чтобы они никогда не стреляли по российской территории, чтобы они никогда не наносили удары по ДНР и ЛНР, не дай бог, по Крыму, по Одессе, по Николаеву, по Запорожью и так далее. Студия?

Александр Денисов: Владимир Петрович, я вас спрошу еще, как поставить на колени. Вы интересно сформулировали, как их поставить на колени. Давайте посмотрим сегодняшний фрагмент выступления генерал-лейтенанта Игоря Конашенкова о том, что было уничтожено и какими средствами, и перейдем как раз к тому, как нам предотвратить обстрелы. Как раз тоже вас спрошу. Смотрим.

Игорь Конашенков, официальный представитель Минобороны РФ: Перехвачена баллистическая ракета «Точка-У» в районе Стаханова Луганской народной республики, а также 21 реактивный снаряд, система залпового огня «Ураган» в районах населенных пунктов Чернобаевка, Сухой Ставок Херсонской области, Каменка, Долгенькое, Малые Проходы Харьковской области, Донецк, Докучаевск, Сухая Каменка, Ясиноватая Донецкой народной республики.

Ракетными войсками и артиллерией за сутки поражено 195 районов сосредоточения живой силы и военной техники, 34 пункта управления и 42 огневых позиции артиллерийских и минометных подразделений Вооруженных сил Украины. В результате ударов ракетных войск и артиллерии уничтожено более 200 националистов, станция радиоэлектронной борьбы, три склада боеприпасов, шесть танков и других боевых бронированных машин, боевая машина реактивной системы залпового огня «Град», четыре орудия полевой артиллерии, 18 специальных автомобилей, а также два пункта управления беспилотными летательными аппаратами в районах населенных пунктов Жовтневое и Кульбакино Николаевской области.

Александр Денисов: Владимир Петрович, любопытно, как вы считаете, вот эти меры… Ну, все-таки много: 195 точек сосредоточения живой силы, 34 пункта управления. Это как раз наиболее эффективный путь. Вот все эти рассуждения о том, что нужно бить по точкам принятия решений. Это и есть те самые точки принятия решений? Подразумевать Киев как точку принятия решений? Ну, вряд ли там принимают. Что же, Киев разнести в дым?

Владимир Козин: Нанесение ударов по местам, где принимают соответственные военно-политические решения. То есть по Киеву – совершенно необязательно. Но что я считаю обязательным? Это сбивать все тяжелые самолеты военно-транспортной авиации стран-членов НАТО, которые как раз доставляют дальнобойные системы вооружений, гаубицы, пушки, средства противотанковой борьбы, «Джавелины» и так далее, радиолокационные станции, потому что значительная часть вооружений спокойно проникают на территорию Украины и дальше доставляются в восточном направлении к территории Донбасса.

Совершенно логично, конечно, ожидать, когда эта система вооружений складируется в определенных точках, в одном месте, и наносить удары. Это тоже надо делать. Я не призываю, что это нужно исключить. Наоборот. То есть разведка должна выявлять все места скопления.

Но самое главное… Я хочу еще раз сказать, что тяжелая военно-транспортная авиация – различные самолеты C-130, «Геркулес» и так далее, их очень много, – чтобы они уничтожались в воздушном пространстве Украины. Для этого Российская Федерация должна все-таки переступить определенную черту, то есть провозгласить бесполетную зону над всей территорией Украины, над Донбассом, над остальной частью Украины: западной, центральной, северной, южной – где угодно.

То есть любой самолет транспортный, который перевозит вот такие тяжелые виды вооружений… А они могут использоваться не только против Донбасса, но и против нас. Никаких гарантий никто нашей стране по поводу использования не даст.

То, что говорит Зеленский – это просто ложь, это обман, это ловушка, рассчитанная на простаков. Но мы далеко не простаки, мы очень умные люди. И предыдущий опыт различных военных столкновений в мире, региональные конфликты, ну во Второй мировой войне, он показал, что враг всегда использует ложь, всегда использует дезинформацию, для того чтобы, как говорят, нанести по врагу наибольший ущерб и добиться максимального успеха.

Следующий момент: я предлагаю все-таки разорвать дипломатические отношения с Францией, с Великобританией, с Соединенными Штатами Америки, с Чехией, с Польшей – то есть со всеми другими натовскими государствами, а многие из них являются и членами Европейского союза. Просто-напросто разорвать, пусть временно – на год, на два, на три.

Ну и последнее важное универсальное средство, чтобы поставить их всех на колени, – это прекратить поставки газа. Как бы нам это было ни жалко, как бы мы ни гордились, что мы 50 лет никогда не нарушали вот такого торгового контрактного обязательства, но мы должны это сделать, преодолеть себя. Выше крыши оснований: и санкции против нас, и тяжелое оружие, которое убивает наших граждан, и граждан Украины, и хороших, и плохих, и которые за Москву, и которые за Киев выступают. Понимаете, это самый настоящий геноцид, это самая настоящая агрессия.

Поэтому Россия должна, не дожидаясь, когда будет принят седьмой пакет о прекращении поставок российского природного газа в Европу, должна сделать это уже сейчас. Повод очень хороший – газотурбины заблокированы, возврат поставок. Мы уже вынуждены были сократить объемы природного газа, который идет в Европу.

Надо довести это дело до конца. Ни капли нефти! Никакого урана для атомных электростанций в Соединенных Штатах! Ни титана! Ни всего, что укрепляет их оборонную способность и экономическую мощь! Не должны мы это делать. Мы заработаем на других направлениях: в Африке, в Азии, среди дружественных государств, которые имеются по всему Земному шару.

Не надо этого бояться! Потому что когда мы укрепляем экономическую мощь натовских стран, мы одновременно укрепляем и их военную силу и их озлобленность против нас. Чтобы этого не было, надо все-таки пойти на самые крайние меры.

Я никогда не выступал за применение ядерного оружия в ограниченном или полномасштабном виде, но вот такие простые меры, о которых я сказал: военно-технические, военно-политические, торгово-экономические, ну и чисто дипломатические. И никогда больше ни с одним западным лидером не разговаривать по телефону, сколько бы они ни звонили в Кремль или председателю Правительства. Разговор с ними должен быть с ними закончен!

Только полная капитуляция Украины, признание полной независимости всей территории Донбасса (ДНР/ЛНР), признание республик в составе Российской Федерации на веки вечные и признание вообще всей территории, которая примыкает к Азовскому морю и к Черному морю, плюс Приднестровье как зоны российских жизненно важных интересов. Захотят ли граждане этих государств, этих формирований присоединиться к России – это их право, это их возможность, их желание. И Российская Федерация должна такие пожелания удовлетворить как можно быстрее, как можно быстрее. Студия?

Александр Денисов: Владимир Петрович, а они хотят. Очередь в Запорожской области на месяц вперед расписана – за российскими паспортами. Конечно, люди хотят. Ногами и руками «за».

Владимир Козин: Конечно. И это нужно расширить. Все люди, которые хотят не только в этих двух областях, которые вы назвали, а еще, может быть, появятся. Всем выдавать российские паспорта! А после референдумов признать… Я не имею в виду референдум на Донбассе, он уже был проведен давным-давно, вскоре после крымского референдума. А их было несколько – и явные, не тайные, если люди помнят.

Поэтому право нации на самоопределение, право нации говорить на своем родном языке, учить своих детей и внуков своей истории, своей практике, помогать людям в социальном плане, в сфере здравоохранения и так далее – только мы можем сделать это и для украинского народа, и для других народов нашей большой планеты.

У нас есть очень хороший запал, очень хороший настрой. Надо поддерживать этот настрой всячески и все-таки не бояться делать радикальные шаги, чтобы поставить коллективный Запад, который помогает Украине совершать третью по счету агрессию против Донбасса, чтобы никогда больше ни у кого не возникало такого желания убивать людей просто за то, что они исповедуют другую религию, за то, что они говорят на другом языке, за то, что у них другая культура, за то, что они уничтожили нацизм в годы Второй мировой войны. Иначе это противостояние будет продолжаться очень и очень долго.

Александр Денисов: Владимир Петрович, я думал, вы скажете: Третью мировую войну. Потому что ощущение, что по целям, пусть не по средствам, а по целям, это совершенно точно Третья мировая война, направленная не только против нас, не только против Донбасса, а против Китая, против тех стран, которые сегодня приехали как раз на Петербургский форум. Они ведь выбрали правильную сторону. Тем самым они заявили о том, что они встают на правильную сторону.

Владимир Петрович, знаете, я хотел вот что сказать. Удивительным образом вы высказали точку зрения, которую высказала сегодня же Эльвира Набиуллина. Она, конечно, так не формулировала – «поставить на колени». Она сказала: «Нам нужно пересмотреть свою экспортную политику, переориентировав ее на переработку и на внутреннее потребление». Это все то же самое, просто другими словами.

Владимир Козин: Я согласен с Эльвирой Набиуллиной, согласен с теми многими мнениями, которые существуют в российском обществе. Россия хочет мира, не путем войны решать проблемы, но нас, к сожалению, заставляли и заставляют действовать определенным образом.

Что касается Третьей мировой войны. Хотя Российская Федерация, естественно, выступала, выступает и будет выступать против ее развязывания, все-таки мы должны не балансировать на грани войны, но все-таки заставить себя уважать, заставить признавать наши геополитические интересы, интересы нашей истории, интересы наших предков, интересы нашей огромной территории, которая протянулась от калининградского Балтийска (это самая крайняя точка наша на Балтике, там стоит памятник нашей императрице) до Владивостока, до Камчатки и дальше – до Берингова пролива.

Мы должны играть линию номер один на мировой арене, естественно, конструктивную, взаимовыгодную, но не ту сволочную, не ту скотскую, не ту нацистскую, которую играют ведущие страны-члены Запада.

Как-то Джозеф Байден называл нашего президента убийцей. А я могу сказать насчет Байдена: это вы, Джозеф Байден, убийца! Вы не только поставляете и продолжаете поставлять орудия убийства на Украину, но вы создали, как недавно признал Пентагон, на территории Украины 46, не 30, как мы раньше считали, и не 32, а 46 биолабораторий, которые, как документально доказано, занимались созданием биологического оружия с большой территорией распространения.

Поэтому Макроны, Шольцы, Джонсоны, Драги – они вообще должны, извините меня, заткнуться и больше не диктовать нам, что нам делать, и не пытаться получать поддержку от своих союзничков. Это гнилые союзнички. Они не хотят, чтобы человечество жило в мире. Вот мое твердое убеждение.

Александр Денисов: Спасибо большое, Владимир Петрович. Владимир Козин, член-корреспондент Российской академии военных наук, был у нас на связи.

Источник: ОТР

 

Владимир Козин: На Украине идет не гражданская война, а геноцид НАТО и ВСУ против русских

Москва должна дать более четкую квалификацию действий Украины и Запада против нас. Например, называть это не «гражданская война», а «агрессия Киева и НАТО против России и геноцид населения Донбасса, Херсона и Запорожья, вернувшихся в состав РФ». Так считает ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин.

Напомним, что утром 16 ноября нефтебаза в Орловской области пострадала от атаки беспилотника. Об этом сообщил губернатор региона Андрей Клычков.

— Владимир Петрович, беспилотник осуществил налет на нефтебазу в селе Стальной Конь в Орловской области. Чей это был летательный аппарат?

— Конечно, это был не наш аппарат, не канадский, не польский. Я думаю, что украинский беспилотник налет на нефтебазу сделал. Кому еще пускать? Это целенаправленная акция со стороны Киева. Страна-производитель пока не объявлена, но это и не так важно.

— Каким образом этот дрон долетел до Орла?

— Очень просто. Это дрон, который может летать на большое расстояние. Если я правильно понял, то объект, который он пытался уничтожить, находился на большом расстоянии от старой украинско-российской границы — более 170 километров. По другим данным, 150 км. Для современных беспилотников это расстояние вообще не проблема — есть аппараты, которые летают на тысячи и десятки тысяч километров. Например, недавно на аэрокосмической выставке в Китае был продемонстрирован подобный дрон с максимальной дальностью до 10 тысяч километров.

— В какие еще российские регионы могут проникнуть такие вражеские беспилотники?

— В принципе, в любые, если мы не поставим надежный заслон и не будем их уничтожать еще на дальних подступах — как только дроны пересекут какую-то границу с нами.

— Есть ли сегодня возможность масштабного прорыва ВСУ на российские территории?

— Если вы имеете в виду вооруженные силы и сухопутные войска, то думаю, что нет. Они понимают, что наша армия гораздо сильнее украинской. Пусть у нас нет такого большого числа личного состава у наших границ (в этом нет никакой необходимости), но огневая мощь у нас гораздо больше и господство в воздухе практически полное. А у них [у ВСУ] остались единицы боевых самолетов и вертолетов.

Танковых частей у России гораздо больше, и они более современные. Есть другие средства: стратегическая авиация, которая может сбрасывать неядерные бомбы с обычными фугасно-осколочными боезарядами большой мощности — по 500 килограмм, по тонне и даже больше.

Поэтому нет, этого не произойдет. Но говоря так, довольно оптимистически, все равно нужно держать порох сухим, проявлять бдительность и всегда давать отпор в два раза сильнее на любой украинский удар, какими бы средствами он ни наносился.

— Сейчас идет методичное уничтожение критической инфраструктуры Украины. (15 ноября несколько целей были поражены в Киеве, взрывы подтвердили власти Харькова, Кривого Рога, Львова. О ракетном ударе также сообщают в Волынской, Кировоградской, Николаевской, Одесской, Хмельницкой, Черкасской областях). В чем еще мы можем действовать эффективнее противника?

— Вы задаете справедливые вопросы. Конечно, уничтожение или повреждение такой ценной инфраструктуры, как различные электроподстанции, теплоэлектростанции важно. Однако это не единственный способ заставить агрессора замолчать, затихнуть.

Есть еще другой вариант, которым должны сопровождаться вышеуказанные действия. Это разрушения критически важной инфраструктуры на всей территории Украины — такая линия с нашей стороны должна продолжаться и наращиваться. Причем делать это необходимо, по моему мнению, каждый раз, когда ВСУ делают какие-то гадости в отношении наших мирных граждан или объектов, которые находятся на традиционно российской территории.

При этом нужно одновременно уничтожать тяжелые виды вооружений, которые поставляет Украине Запад различными способами: по железной дороге, автотрассам, с помощью военно-транспортной авиации НАТО. Если североатлантический блок и Евросоюз говорят, что нужно укреплять эти пути поставок тяжелых видов вооружений на Украину, то мы, соответственно, должны разрушать все эти маршруты — на земле, в воздухе, на море.

— ВСУ пытаются вести наступательные действия по всей линии от Попасной до Харьковской области. Об этом заявил офицер Народной милиции Луганской Народной Республики Андрей Марочко. Чего нам ждать по этому направлению?

— Во-первых, я не уверен в том, что у них есть силы, чтобы вести такие широкомасштабные наступления на всей полосе фронта, по линии соприкосновения, которая простирается на 1100 километров.

При этом нам нужно обязательно проверять источники данных, которые мы получаем. Как только Киев открывает свой рот — жди дезинформацию, жди обманные движения, жди какие-то инсинуации, которые могут нас ввести в заблуждение. Поэтому я не очень верю информации, которая поступает из неофициальных источников, откуда бы они ни шли — со стороны Украины, со стороны государств — членов НАТО или со стороны наших блогеров и отдельных частных лиц.

— Как ситуация может развиваться на Херсонском направлении?

— Мы заняли эшелонированную оборону на левом берегу Днепра, и правильно сделали. Мы сохранили 30 тысяч наших вооруженных сил, перевезли на левый берег 5 тысяч тяжелых видов вооружений, и поврежденные виды вооружений, которые требуют ремонта, и другие материальные ценности — снаряды, патроны.

Мы сохранили очень серьезный кулак, который позволяет нам еще очень и очень долго держать линию по левой части Днепра — на нашей стороне, которая вошла в состав Российской Федерации. Постепенно, используя дальнобойные вооружения, мы можем наносить высокоточные удары по украинской группировке, которая сейчас приблизилась к Днепру с правой стороны. У нас вполне есть такие возможности.

Поскольку нам удалось эвакуировать жителей многих населенных пунктов на правой стороне [Днепра], откуда мы ушли (это 115 тысяч местных жителей, включая Херсон) и вывести их на безопасное расстояние и контролируемые нами территории, мы можем использовать тяжелую стратегическую авиацию. Она действует на большой высоте, ее не в силах достать средства ПВО Украины. Российские силы могут бомбить все эти концентрации неонацистов, бандеровцев более эффективно. Этим необходимо заниматься очень серьезно и целенаправленно.

— Каковы наши мобилизационные возможности?

— Всегда очень хорошие. Цифры вам никто не озвучит, поскольку это относится к разряду военной и государственной тайны. Есть и добровольческие формирования, которые могут нам помочь, единственное — нужно обозначить свои военные действия.

Нам нужно изменить название нашей операции, я имею в виду специальную военную операцию — она уже свое доброе дело сделала, мы все понимаем ее значение. Но с 5 октября этого года, когда еще четыре территории вошли в состав Российской Федерации (ДНР, ЛНР, Херсонская и Запорожская области), мы должны дать более четкую квалификацию действий Украины и НАТО против нас. Например, называть это не «гражданская война» на Украине, а »агрессия Украины и НАТО против Российской Федерации». А наши ответные действия — это «противодействие этой вооруженной агрессии Украины и НАТО».

— Почему нельзя употреблять выражение «гражданская война» на Украине?

— Этот термин снова и снова появляется в заявлениях некоторых наших политологов. Раньше мы тоже называли «гражданской войной» все эти восемь лет до февраля 2022 года. Но посудите сами: Донбасс, Херсон и Запорожье в течение восьми лет никогда не воевали с гражданским населением остальной части Украины. Гражданское население Украины тоже никогда не враждовало с Донбассом, а воевали ВСУ, территориальная оборона, националистические формирования. Это первое, почему нельзя так говорить.

Второй момент: термин, что идет гражданская война на Украине, маскирует агрессора — Украину и НАТО. В этой формулировке не видно, кто на кого нападает. Третий момент: эта формулировка ставит на одну доску агрессора Украину и жертвы агрессии — Донбасс с двумя присоединившимися к России областями, которые вынуждены защищаться.

У нас иногда не задумываются, называют так, вроде название такое понятное — гражданская война. Но это не гражданская война — вещи нужно называть своими именами. Это агрессия Украины и НАТО против России — после того, как все пять территорий вернулись в ее состав. Кстати, я думаю, что новая формулировка позволит привлечь еще больше добровольцев, так как агрессия идет извне, против нас.

Также некоторые наши комментаторы, наверное, не обращали внимание на то обстоятельство, что президент Владимир Путин во время своего объявления о начале СВО 24 февраля 2022 года, употребил слово «геноцид» Киева против Донбасса. Насилие, геноцид — это было сказано правильно и не случайно. Агрессия и геноцид — обе формулировки имеют четкое определение в документах ООН.

Таким образом, сейчас идет прямая и масштабная агрессия Украины и НАТО против России и геноцид против населения пяти вернувшихся в состав РФ территорий. Москва вынуждена оказывать противодействие комбинированной агрессии Запада — теперь против всей России.

— Насколько успешно вливаются в ряды нашей военной группировки люди, пришедшие по частичной мобилизации?

— Отлично! Я поначалу думал, что их нахождение в учебных лагерях и центрах по подготовке и переподготовке, по восстановлению утраченных навыков займет максимум одну-две недели в зависимости от специализации. Но кого-то готовят месяц, некоторых — даже два месяца, пока они не закончат свое боевое слаживание, как говорят военные. Простыми словами, идет отработка навыков оперативного взаимодействия в боевой обстановке. Часть мобилизованных уже находится в зоне боевого соприкосновения.

Очень правильно, что людей, которые прошли частичную мобилизацию, не просто объединяют в какие-то части, подразделения и направляют для участия в боевых действиях. Новичков «смешивают» с людьми, которые уже имеют определенный военный опыт. Только таким образом можно повысить эффективность действий наших вооруженных сил. Например, люди из ДНР и ЛНР, которые годами воюют, лучше знают врага, его тактические приемы и методы.

Ведь недостаточно научить людей стрелять из автомата Калашникова или гранатомета, запускать маленький дрон-разведчик. Этого недостаточно! Люди должны взаимодействовать друг с другом, помогать друг другу, наступать и обороняться вместе.

Здесь не может быть каких-то обязательств, соревнований или сроков. Это все легко проверяется, проводятся учения. Специалисты сразу видят хорошие стороны мобилизованных новичков или какие-то недостатки. Поэтому надо это дело доводить до высокого уровня профессионализма с нашей стороны.

Надо продолжать эту линию и снабжать наши вооруженные силы самыми современными средствами, памятуя об одном: слишком многое поставлено на карту и мы должны противодействовать эффективно и мощно. И не надо стесняться, что о нас подумают и скажут в Лондоне или Вашингтоне. Раз мы взялись за освобождение территорий, где живут наши русскоязычные братья и сестры, мы должны довести дело до конца.

Обстановка часто меняется, но нам ни в коем случае нельзя идти на какие-то переговоры на условиях, которые довольно нахально и бесцеремонно выдвигает Киев и его натовские сообщники — прямые участники в войне против России. Это война, это очень серьезная война.

— Владимир Петрович, отдельные военные эксперты говорят: «Мы так долго этих мобилизованных готовим, мы одни воюем, нам никто не помогает». А вы что думаете?

— Пока мы не нуждаемся в чей-то военной помощи на полях сражений. Но это не должно распространяться на вооружения и боеприпасы к ним. Если 58 стран (30 стран — членов НАТО и 28 внеблоковых государств) направляют свои вооружения на Украину, то почему Россия не может последовать этому примеру?

Другой аспект. Никогда нельзя доверяться экспертам, которые надувают щеки и считают себя знатоками, специалистами. Это их частное мнение, и оно может не соответствовать действительности. Они могут покупаться на всякие дезинформационные вбросы со стороны Украины или государств — членов НАТО. Украинцы и спецы из НАТО — это люди изощренные по своей сущности, и поднаторевшие в информационной, а точнее сказать в дезинформационной, работе.

Беседовала Анна Черкасова, Источник: Украина.ру

 

 

Владимир Козин: Роль форума «Армия-2020» огромна

Форум «Армия-2020» — мероприятие очень полезное во всех отношениях. Здесь представлена отличная и перспективная отечественная военная техника. Уровень научно-политических дискуссий на круглых столах, организованных в рамках форума, также находится на весьма высоком уровне. 

Важно и то, что на форуме устанавливаются деловые контакты с представителями других стран, занимающихся вопросами военно-технического сотрудничества с Россией.

Представленная техника была анонсирована давно. На меня самое большое впечатление произвели новейшие системы противоракетной обороны. Это очень перспективное направление. Они позволяют нашей стране постепенно и поэтапно переходить от стратегии ядерного сдерживания на неядерное. То есть на сдерживание вероятного противника не с помощью ядерного оружия, а с помощью высоких технологий, суперсовременных, высокоскоростных и высокоточных систем, которые пока не могут создать за океаном или в Европе.

Внутриполитическая и внешнеполитическая роль проходящего форума огромна.

Если говорить о внутриполитической роли, то, конечно, это очень консолидирует наше общество. Это укрепляет дух патриотизма и повышает уровень значения вооруженных сил и современных военных технологий XXI века в нашей стране. Это вызывает чувство гордости за то, что мы нашли в себе силы и самое главное – возможности для того, чтобы так радикально и так основательно переоснастить свои вооруженные силы, и поэтому нам не страшен самый мощный противник.

Внешнеполитический аспект форума «Армия-2020», конечно, тоже имеет большое значение. Дело в том, что мероприятие посещают  сотрудники аппаратов военных атташе иностранных посольств, представленных в России. И они, естественно, докладывают своему военно-политическому руководству о том, какие новые образцы вооружений представила Россия. Они внимательно отслеживают не только то, какая техника прошла или пролетела на традиционных военных парадах, но и что было представлено российскими вооруженными силами и оборонно-промышленным комплексом РФ на площадках форума.

Это имеет очень большое значение не только для того, чтобы никто и никогда даже не подумал и не вознамерился напасть на нас, но и для того, чтобы никто не вознамерился манипулировать нами на политических и дипломатических переговорах по контролю над вооружениями. Дело в том, что нынешняя американская администрация уже проявила свое негативное отношение к 13 двусторонним или международным договорным актам по контролю над вооружениями. Это — очень серьезный, внушительный показатель. По сути, это — отказ обсуждать существующие проблемы в этой сфере.

Случались с их стороны и прямые нарушения договоров. В частности, договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности 1987 года, который за 20 последних лет американская сторона до своего выхода из этого соглашения 2 августа 2019 года нарушила 117 раз! Я не оговорился. Именно столько ракет средней и меньшей дальности, запрещенных этим договором, Пентагон использовал при проверке эффективности системы ПРО США.

Поэтому, возвращаясь к теме «Армии-2020», стоит констатировать, что такие форумы нужны, их обязательно надо проводить в будущем в силу его многоплановости и востребованности. 

На форуме «Армия-2020» также состоялся круглый стол под общим девизом «Современный миропорядок и его влияние на национальную безопасность Российской Федерации», в ходе которого были рассмотрены в теоретическом и практическом плане новые угрозы и вызовы нашей безопасности, проблематика информационной безопасности и другие проблемы. Это был традиционный круглый стол, в ходе которого был затронут широкий круг вопросов, связанных с укреплением обороноспособности ВС РФ. Довелось выступить и мне на тему фальсификации военной политики России со стороны США и стран НАТО.

Было обращено внимание на необоснованную и деструктивную критику военной политики и военного строительства России, на ее ядерную доктрину, которая в кратком виде может быть квалифицирована как основанная на «условном оборонительном ядерном сдерживании». В данном контексте слово «условное» означает: «если на нас нападут». А у США в основе такой же доктринальной установке лежит формула «безусловное наступательное ядерное сдерживание с правом нанесения первого ядерного удара».

Такая критика военной политики России, о которой шла речь, заметно усилилась в последние годы. Гипертрофированный образ Российской Федерации как «военного врага всего мира» может быть усилен в еще большей степени. Неадекватное реагирование на это с нашей стороны может иметь крайне нежелательные информационные последствия для России, ее союзников и друзей. Из всего сказанного напрашивается вывод: необходимо активно противодействовать нападкам США и других стран НАТО на военную политику России. В своем выступлении я предложил провести совещание на высоком уровне с участием представителей заинтересованных министерств и ведомств, которые занимаются вопросами информационно-разъяснительной и контрпропагандистской работы с привлечением ключевых российских федеральных СМИ. 

Все обозначенные дискуссионные направления — очень важные. Иногда необходимо, как говорится, «сверить часы», пощупать пульс научной мысли и послушать практические соображения по каждому вектору дискуссий.

Правильным является профессиональный подбор участников дискуссий: и военные, и гражданские специалисты. Это важно и для поиска правильных решений по принципу: «Ум хорошо, а два лучше». А также для органической связи армии с народом и народа с армией.

Хорошо известно, что в России давно ведется  широкая и профессиональная кампания по противодействию фальсификациям истории Второй мировой войны и Великой Отечественной войны. Но и необходимо заниматься противодействием фальсификации современной военной политики нашей страны, особенно – в сфере контроля над вооружениями. Речь идет о распространении разного рода слухов и домыслов о том, что Россия – это враг «номер один» всего человечества, что чуть ли не завтра развяжет тотальную, глобальную ядерную войну.

Кроме того, распространяются ложные сообщения о том, что Россия якобы нарушает договор о сокращении стратегических наступательных вооружений 2010 года, создавая перспективные или, как их называют на Западе, «экзотические» виды вооружений. Мы все помним, что президент России Владимир Путин сначала объявил о шести таких видах, а потом был добавлен седьмой — гиперзвуковая ракета «Циркон». То есть, эта информационная кампания направлена против нашей «великолепной семерки», которую надо сберечь и развивать в будущем. Но все эти виды вооружений не подпадают под пока еще действующий Договор СНВ-3.

С другой стороны, по состоянию на конец августа 2020 года Белый дом не проявил готовности зафиксировать договоренность о продлении Договора СНВ-3 на какой-то срок. Вашингтон не снял свое предложение о подключении КНР к переговорному российско-американскому процессу о сокращении СНВ. США не хотят фиксировать органическую связь между наступательными и оборонительными вооружениями сторон. Администрация Дональда Трампа проигнорировала предложение России провести встречу юристов сторон с целью обмена мнениями об интерпретации отдельных положений Договора СНВ-3. У американской стороны существует ложное представление о том, что его продления для России важно добиться любой ценой. Вашингтон ставит вопрос о тактическом ядерном оружии. Но в какой плоскости? Вообще не собирается выводить его из Европы. Наоборот, даже намерен развернуть ранее запрещенные ядерные ракеты средней дальности в Европе и Азии, но уже в новом исполнении.

Проблем такого рода очень много, о них надо серьезно говорить. Буду рад, если Федеральное агентство новостей также будет уделять этому внимание, опровергая разного рода слухи и домыслы со стороны США и НАТО в адрес военной политики и военного строительства РФ. 

Напомним, 23 августа состоялось торжественное открытие Международного военно-технического форума «Армия-2020» и Международных армейских игр, которые в этом году впервые проходят одновременно. Форум завершится 29 августа.

Ежегодное масштабное событие в мире военной техники проходит в парке «Патриот». Традиционно на выставке «Армия-2020» представлены последние новинки в военной промышленности. В 2020 году в мероприятии принимают участие около 1,5 тысячи предприятий, представляющих более 28 тысяч экспонатов.

Информационным партнером форума «Армия-2020» выступает Федеральное агентство новостей.

Автор: В.П. Козин. Источник: РИА ФАН.

 

 

Владимир Козин: Россия должна быть готова первой нанести ядерный удар по вражеским государствам

Несмотря на то, что Россия не сразу ответила на нарушения НАТО наших красных линий, Вашингтон и Киев много раз пожалели об этом, потому что получают сокрушительный удар возмездия, считает политолог, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин

Об этом он рассказал в интервью изданию Украина.ру.

— Владимир Петрович, с точки зрения американских политиков и военных, бездействие российского руководства в отношении Запада, который перешел красные линии, расценивается в США как сигнал к тому, что можно и дальше все барьеры нарушать, русские ничего не будут предпринимать. Кстати, подобная точка зрения наблюдается и у нашего населения. Как Россия должна реагировать? Что вы думаете об этом?

— Ваш вопрос, как я понял, касается красных линий России, которые она проводит с целью предупреждения о готовности оказать мощное противодействие неспровоцированной вооруженной агрессии Украины и НАТО против российского государства.

— Да, правильно.

— Очевидно, что при проведении данных линий следует придерживаться двух ключевых принципов. Во-первых, не обозначать их публично слишком часто даже по крупным поводам.

Во-вторых, реализовывать на деле и основательно свои предупреждения о ликвидации возникших новых угроз безопасности России, если конкретные красные линии были обозначены. И желательно реагировать без проволочек. Но если подобные угрозы остаются только в виде политических заявлений, то есть не подкрепленных силовой реакцией с российской стороны, то они девальвируются. Государства-агрессоры привыкают к ним. У них создается твердое убеждение, что никаких дополнительных военных акций России на их злонамеренные действия ожидать не стоит.

В руководящих американских кругах напрасно полагают, что они и их ближайшие союзники по НАТО смогут запросто игнорировать российские красные линии. Хотя некоторые из этих линий они сознательно переступили, игнорируя предупреждения Москвы, которая не смогла моментально ответить на их нарушения по целому ряду причин. Но постепенно по всем из них и Вашингтон, а в еще большей степени Киев много раз пожалели, когда понадеялись на свою безнаказанность в результате неверной трактовки и получали сокрушительный удар возмездия.

Со временем, по мере появления у Вооруженных сил России (ВС РФ) более новых и перспективных вооружений, такие разочарования у американских, натовских и украинских так называемых стратегов будут возникать все чаще и чаще. Если они не будут учитывать слово caveat [с латинского — «предупреждение, основанное на опыте». — Авт.].

— Все ли свои ранее обозначенные красные линии российская сторона оставила без внимания?

— Нет, не все. Раньше, например, российские Вооруженные силы не уничтожали крупные военные склады, заваленные по крышу американско-натовскими тяжелыми вооружениями и боеприпасами к ним. Теперь их уничтожение высокоточными и мощными ударными средствами стало стабильной практикой. От таких хранилищ остается пустая территория. Прежде мало российских ударов наносилось по стратегическим командно-штабным структурам ВСУ. Но в последнее время это повторилось многократно и весьма успешно.

Даже западные СМИ признали гибель многих высокопоставленных военных из ряда государств трансатлантического альянса, заседавших в таких структурах и науськивавших Киев на эскалацию агрессии против России. Не учли ни в Киеве, ни в НАТО, ни в Евросоюзе, что Россия все же задействует тяжелые стратегические бомбардировщики с дальнобойными обычными осколочно-фугасными ракетами большой ударной мощности. Проспали. Но процесс пошел.

— Нужно ли Москве проводить еще какие-то новые специфические красные линии?

— Думаю, что нужно. Скажем, предвосхищая поставку в украинские военно-воздушные силы американских истребителей-бомбардировщиков F-16 (кстати говоря, отдельные типы которых являются сертифицированными носителями тактического ядерного оружия) следует аккуратно, но сильно предупредить военно-политическое руководство Украины и НАТО о том, что все они однозначно будут уничтожены на украинских аэродромах базирования и в небе Украины.

Нужно параллельно предупредить государства-агрессоры альянса, что все их самолеты военно-транспортной авиации, в том числе доставляющие тяжелую военную технику и боеприпасы для ВСУ, будут уничтожаться сразу, как только они войдут в украинское воздушное пространство. Этим займутся Воздушно-космические силы России [далее — ВСК России]. Важно одновременно предупредить Киев и штаб-квартиру альянса в Брюсселе о введении так называемой бесполетной зоны в небе Украины над всей контролируемой ею национальной территорией.

Одновременно думаю, что в целом ряде случаев Россия вполне может обойтись и без красных предупредительных линий и действовать сразу по мере появления новых вызовов и угроз, не предупреждая врага.

— Должна ли Россия нанести удар (ядерный или неядерный) по наиболее активным участникам агрессии, входящим в НАТО, например, по Великобритании и Польше, а также по Брюсселю — чтобы показать силу, чтобы неповадно было?

— Под Брюсселем, очевидно, понимается потенциальный силовой удар по огромной штаб-квартире военного блока, расположенной в районе Эвере на окраине бельгийской столицы? А не по Бельгии как стране? Верно?

— Именно так.

— Думаю, что в нынешней ситуации не стоит наносить ни первый ракетно-ядерный, ни первый удар с использованием неядерных, обычных вооружений. Если Россия быстро уничтожит военную машину Украины, а также добьется ее демилитаризации и денацификации, сохранения на веки вечные ее внеблокового статуса, а также в качестве государства, которое никогда больше не будет угрожать России, ее союзникам и друзьям, то в таких ударах с российской стороны не будет никакой необходимости. Подобные удары — как ядерный, так и неядерный — спровоцируют не просто ракетно-ядерную войну. А комбинированную войну с тремя составляющими: с ракетно-ядерными, ракетно-противоракетными и космическими ударными системами.

Но если США и НАТО нанесут по России, ее союзникам и друзьям первый ракетно-ядерный удар, то, разумеется, ее мощные ядерные Ракетные войска стратегического назначения (РВСН) и семь видов гиперзвуковых перспективных высокоточных систем ответят агрессору, как говорят, по полной программе. И причем по всем государствам Североатлантического союза, который вместе с Украиной развязал вооруженную агрессию против Российской Федерации, в ходе которой с апреля 2014 года уже погибло 20 тысяч мирных граждан и разрушены десятки тысяч жилых домов и объектов социальной и иной инфраструктуры. Россия ответит и по тем странам, которые все шлют и шлют смертоносные виды вооружений для уничтожения и русских, и украинцев. Такое не прощается и не забывается.

— В одной из наших бесед вы упоминали о теории нанесения первого ядерного удара России (как у американцев с 1945 года). Расскажите об этом подробнее, зачем нам это и что дает?

— Действительно, у Соединенных Штатов уже почти 80 лет в их ядерной стратегии остается установка нанесения первого ядерного удара. В первую очередь по России и КНР и при наличии 14 оснований, половина которых может трактоваться Вашингтоном произвольно. Например, в случае изменения геополитической обстановки, США будут определять их самостоятельно. У России после появления ракетно-ядерного оружия (оно изначально было создано в СССР в 1949 году) имеется стратегия ответно-встречного ядерного удара.

Хотя до начала украинско-натовской агрессии — сначала против Донбасса (с 13 апреля 2014 года), а затем и против России (с 5 октября 2022 года после вхождения в ее состав четырех новых территорий) — я не был сторонником использования ракетно-ядерного оружия в первом ударе или его применения вообще кем бы то ни было. Но в нынешней обстановке уже стал убежденным приверженцем мнения о необходимости перехода России на стратегию нанесения первого ядерного удара по враждебным ядерным государствам. А может быть, и по неядерным — в зависимости от их агрессивности.

Вы правильно поставили вопрос: зачем нам это и что это дает. Во-первых, это позволит нам не пропустить первый ракетно-ядерный удар со стороны США и их ядерных союзников Великобритании и Франции. Во-вторых, это сбалансирует перманентную угрозу ракетно-ядерного нападения со стороны ядерной тройки НАТО, главный участник которой — Соединенные Штаты — уже давно сконцентрировали ракетно-ядерные вооружения стратегического и тактического назначения в зонах «передового базирования» близ территории Российской Федерации, ее союзников и друзей.

В-третьих, это ослабит степень повышения Вашингтоном качественных характеристик своих стратегических наступательных ядерных и тактических ядерных вооружений, а также несколько нивелирует стратегию ядерного сдерживания и ядерные планы США, о чем 2 июня этого года публично объявил в американской Ассоциации по контролю над вооружениями советник президента США национальной безопасности Джейк Салливан.

И последнее: это в гораздо большей степени укрепит военно-политическую опору российского ракетно-ядерного и иного сдерживания потенциальных агрессоров.

— Эксперт по конкурентной разведке Евгений Ющук в интервью изданию Украина.ру отметил, что мертвый Зеленский будем удобен всем: и Западу, и России. А вы что думаете? Нужно избавиться от Зеленского? Как это поможет?

— Добровольное и инициативное отрешение Зеленского от должностей президента и верховного главнокомандующего ВС страны или уход в отставку «по совету» Соединенных Штатов и НАТО остановили бы вооруженную агрессию против России, о масштабах которой я говорил ранее. Почему бы не попробовать и Москве посоветовать главным кураторам Зеленского реализовать второй вариант?

Думаю, что скорейшая замена Зеленского другим неагрессивным, адекватным и реалистическим лидером, не связывающим себя с идеологией неонацизма, бандеризма и притеснения православного христианства радикально оздоровила бы военно-политическую обстановку и восстановила бы довольно продуктивные в прошлом торгово-экономические, финансовые и культурные связи в Европе и в мире в целом. Даже, если предположить, что российская сторона получит отказ из Вашингтона и натовских столиц на изложенную инициативу, ее все равно надо попробовать продвинуть по дипломатическим каналам, то есть не через СМИ.

— Вы общаетесь в различных политических и военных кулуарах. Расскажите, нам по секрету, рассматривает ли сейчас Россия мирный план урегулирования конфликта на Украине?

— Российская Федерация имеет свой национальный план полного прекращения агрессии Украины и НАТО против российского государства. На днях он был повторен заместителем министра иностранных дел Михаилом Галузиным, что нашло отражение в СМИ, а также было прокомментировано в Киеве, правда, в весьма негативном ключе. Москва также осведомлена и в целом положительно реагирует на так называемые мирные планы других государств Земли, хотя признает, что многие из них не учитывают современные реалии и развитие обстановки на Украине и даже ведут к затягиванию этой внешней агрессии.

— Какое место там отведено киевскому режиму?

— Важно дать четкую официальную квалификацию действий Украины и НАТО против России. Например, признать начало «вооруженной агрессии Украины против ДНР и ЛНР» с 13 апреля 2014 года (начало «антитеррористической операции» украинского режима против двух республик Донбасса, а по сути развязывание против них именно агрессии и политики геноцида против его граждан), а «вооруженной агрессии Украины и НАТО против России» — с 5 октября 2022 года. Пояснение по этой дате я давал выше.

Всякие другие термины, например «украинский конфликт или кризис», «противостояние или гражданская война между Украиной и Россией», ставят на одну доску агрессора и жертву агрессии, а также исключают НАТО как организацию, активно и многопрофильно участвующую в названной агрессии на стороне Киева.

— Что необходимо обязательно включить в мирный план по Украине?

— Мне представляется, что российская сторона должна дополнить официальную позицию нашего государства по политическому урегулированию ситуации, связанной с вооруженной агрессией Украины и НАТО против России, пунктом о полной компенсации украинской стороной многочисленным жертвам среди гражданского населения России, убитым и раненным украинскими Вооруженными Силами и спецслужбами, а также расходов на восстановление разрушенных и поврежденных ими зданий жилого фонда и различных объектов социальной, энергетической, транспортной и иной инфраструктуры за период с апреля 2014 года по настоящее время.

Имеется также предложение, которое не относится к мирным инициативам, но тем не менее является важным. Государственная Дума отдельно или совместно с Советом Федерации могли бы принять решение о квалификации Украины как «террористического государства» с учетом многочисленных актов индивидуального и массового террора, уже осуществленных украинскими Вооруженными силами и спецслужбами против граждан России, ее социально-значимой и иной инфраструктуры.

В целом считаю, что нашу политическую и информационно-разъяснительную работу в связи агрессией Украины и НАТО против России надо основательно и качественно усилить.

Беседовала Анна Черкасова. Источник: Украина.ру.

 

Владимир Козин: США никогда не согласятся вернуться к размещению своих вооружений до уровня 1997 года

 

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "ОТРажение" на канале ОТР. Эфир от 21 апреля 2022г.

***

Александр Денисов (ведущий): Мариуполь взят под контроль, об этом министр обороны доложил сегодня президенту. Владимир Путин поздравил Сергея Шойгу и Вооруженные силы с успехом. Отдельно разговор зашел об остатках нацистских формирований, окопавшихся, можно даже сказать закопавшихся, в промзоне завода «Азовсталь». Сергей Кужугетович попросил 3–4 дня на полную зачистку.

Владимир Путин, президент РФ: Предлагаемый штурм промышленной зоны считаю нецелесообразным. Приказываю отменить.

Сергей Шойгу, министр обороны РФ: Есть.

Владимир Путин: Это тот случай, когда мы должны думать, т. е. мы всегда должны думать, но в данном случае тем более, о сохранении жизни и здоровья наших солдат и офицеров. Не нужно лезть в эти катакомбы и ползать там под землей по этим промышленным объектам. Заблокируйте эту промышленную зону так, чтобы муха не пролетела.

Александр Денисов: Президент попросил министра представить военных к награде за освобождение города, выполнить все социальные обязательства перед ранеными, а также подумать над дополнительными мерами поддержки и об увековечивании памяти тех, кто проявил героизм и пожертвовал своей жизнью ради мира в Донбассе.

Но еще о гарантиях мира, которые обеспечиваются новейшими достижениями в обороне, – были проведены летные испытания межконтинентальной баллистической ракеты «Сармат». Ее запустили с космодрома «Плесецк» Архангельской области, а учебные боевые блоки прибыли в заданный район на камчатский полигон «Кура́». Да, вот вы видите, как это все и происходило вчера.

Владимир Путин: Уважаемые товарищи, я поздравляю вас с успешным пуском межконтинентальной баллистической ракеты «Сармат». Это большое, знаменательное событие в развитии перспективных систем вооружений российской армии. Новый комплекс обладает высочайшими тактико-техническими характеристиками и способен преодолевать все современные средства противоракетной обороны. Аналогов ему в мире нет и еще долго не будет.

Александр Денисов: И на связи со студией Владимир Петрович Козин, член-корреспондент Российской академии военных наук. Владимир Петрович, добрый вечер.

Владимир Козин: Приветствую, приветствую вас.

Александр Денисов: Владимир Петрович, можно я... ? Думал, безусловно, спросить вас про отмену штурма, но решил с другого зайти.

Вот сейчас я покажу с ноутбука фотографию, журналисты углядели у Владимира Путина, когда он как раз проводил совещание сегодня с Сергеем Кужугетовичем, вот глиняную собачку в таком красном прямоугольнике, вот она видна. Эту глиняную собачку президенту подарила Регина Парпиева, девочка, вот она ему дарит, сейчас другую фотографию я показал, у нее, к сожалению, со зрением проблемы. Очень человечный такой момент.

Владимир Петрович, и столь же человечным было решение президента отменить штурм, поберечь бойцов. С каким чувством вы выслушали сегодняшнее решение Верховного главнокомандующего? И если штурма не будет, то что будет, Владимир Петрович?

Владимир Козин: Ну конечно, с чувством глубокого удовлетворения, поскольку считаю, такое решение единственное правильное, потому что это только в стрелялках, в различных компьютерных играх красиво бегать по различным тоннелям, казематам, бункерам истрелять из пистолета или из автомата по появляющимся целям. В жизни все гораздо сложнее. И мы ну просто положили бы слишком много людей, чтобы из 7- или 8-этажного подземного города, как говорят знатоки, которые раньше были на «Азовстали», выковыривать каждого абсолютно человека. Это практически... Возможно, но очень опасно, потому что будут огромные жертвы.

Поэтому решение правильное: запечатать по периметру, в принципе это уже сделано, но следить за тем, чтобы, как говорят, ни один таракан бандеровский оттуда не выполз. Хотите сдаваться? – пожалуйста, уже третий день, начиная с 19-го, 20 апреля, сегодня с 2-х часов дня до 4-х часов вечера по московскому времени опять гуманитарные коридоры открыты и все, кто желает положить оружие на землю, как говорят, сдаться, начать новую жизнь, получить питание, медицинское обслуживание, уважительное отношение, ну пожалуйста, выходите, сдавайтесь.

Но я думаю, что те представители вот этой националистической группировки «Азов» (Запрещенная в России террористическая организация (ред.)), а она не только там одна, там и «Правый сектор» (Запрещенная в России террористическая организация (ред.)), и, по-моему, еще некоторые имеются... Я думаю, что они просто убьют всех тех людей, которые захотят выйти, воспользовавшись этой ситуацией. А вообще-то решение правильное, потому что ну надо еще немножко подождать, тем более у тех людей, которые там остались, у них практически не остается ни питания, ни воды, ни боекомплекта, ни электроэнергии, ну то есть ситуация крайне драматическая, могу себе представить.

Поэтому единственный способ – это выйти и спокойно начать жить. Тем более Владимир Владимирович Путин когда объявлял об этом, он еще раз повторил, что мы гарантируем всем, кто выйдет из «Азовстали» на поверхность в какие-то коридоры объявлены, они все очень четко объявлены, по конкретным улицам, с автотранспортом для перевозки, с машинами скорой помощи, – пожалуйста, выходите. Но, естественно, те, кто не захотят выйти, пусть пеняют на себя. Человек с ружьем, который не сдается, его уничтожают, это закон всех войн, всех времен и народов. Студия?

Александр Денисов: Владимир Петрович, с другой стороны, мы можем, конечно, обратить внимание, что Сергей Кужугетович Шойгу не говорил про зачистку, он сказал «нужно 3–4 дня». Может быть, он имел в виду бомбардировщики Ту-22? Ну вероятно, можем так предположить. Как вы думаете, что вместо штурма следует делать? Вот сегодня в 4 часа, когда закончился режим тишины, заработала артиллерия, огневое подавление, ночью, вероятно, будут бомбардировки. Такой мы выбрали путь?

Владимир Козин: Я думаю, что любой путь правомерен, законен и адекватен сложившейся ситуации. То есть это установки «Град», «Ураган» и «Смерч», дальнобойная артиллерия и минометы большого калибра. И вы упомянули стратегическую авиацию – у нас есть такие огромные авиабомбы, по-английски они называютсяbunker busters, «разрушители бункеров», которые имеют очень большую массу взрывчатки, 500-килограммовые есть и даже больше, но которые просто запечатают, запечатают и сделают, извините за такое сравнение, братскую могилу тем бандеровцам, которые вознамерились пойти именно таким путем, выбрать для себя такой бесславный конец своей преступной милитаристской деятельности. Студия?

Александр Денисов: Владимир Петрович, представители НАТО и Пентагона не раз заявляли в последнее время, что они не могут связаться с нашим Генштабом, их министр обороны Остин тоже говорил. Ну, оставим это на совести, возможно, так и есть.

Владимир Козин: Нет.

Александр Денисов: Вчера мы точно связались и предупредили, что мы будем испытывать межконтинентальную баллистическую ракету «Сармат», с Архангельской области до Камчатки она пролетит. Как вы думаете, какое впечатление на них произвел, во-первых, этот звонок, мы предупредили их, а потом сами пуски?

Владимир Козин: Ну, я думаю, что произвел самое печальное впечатление для них, поскольку у них нет такой системы, нет такой ракеты, ракетоносителя, который несет ядерный или обычный боезаряды, несет гиперзвуковой планирующий боевой блок «Авангард». И неизвестно, когда еще это будет, потому что у них большие проблемы с двигательной установкой, которая бы обеспечивала гиперзвуковую скорость. Только на «пятерку» еле-еле вытягивают, я имею в виду это показатель Эрнста Маха, 5 километров в секунду. У нас же гораздо больше, 28 называлась цифра, это больше чем в 5 раз, правильно, чем американская.

У них по материаловедению большое отступление, откат от нас, потому что система «Авангард», допустим, летит ну буквально в плазме, при температуре 2 тысячи градусов, планирует, зигзагообразная траектория, а не просто по прямой, по баллистической. У них нет системы связи, вот когда боевой блок планирующий уже приближается к территории, каким-то образом управлять им, наводить на объекты поражения. Поэтому у них ситуация довольно сложная, и не скоро они решат все эти проблемы, о которых я сказал.

Кроме того, надо учитывать, что эта ракета ну огромной дальности. Уже называлась открыто цифра 18 тысяч километров против максимальной дальности межконтинентальных баллистических ракет или баллистических ракет... 8–11 тысяч километров, а здесь 18. То есть она может лететь не по традиционной траектории через, скажем, север Европы, северные моря и дальше, если в сторону Соединенных Штатов, а вообще через Северный или через Южный полюс, вот, и ударить оттуда, откуда ее не ждут и откуда не догадаются, где нет соответствующих систем противоракетной обороны прикрытия, я имею в виду Соединенные Штаты, так у них, как говорят, стратегическая задумка была реализована. Кроме того, эта система преодолевает все существующие и перспективные виды противоракетной обороны Соединенных Штатов Америки и некоторых натовских союзников, у которых она есть пока в таком ограниченном варианте. Поэтому, конечно, головка у них сильно заболела по этому поводу, настроение резко упало.

И я в этой связи хочу особо подчеркнуть: дорогие российские коллеги, которые выступают за то, чтобы показывать вот эти наши системы американской стороне, «Авангард» или «Сармат», этого не надо делать по двум причинам. Во-первых, в договоре СНВ-III, который продлен до 2026 года, там вообще нет упоминания ни «Авангарда», ни «Сармата», хотя другие ракеты прежних классов, которые на момент подписания этого договорного акта в апреле 2010 года в Праге, он просто был продлен, как я сказал, при Байдене, ну там не упомянуты.

И кроме того, «Сармат» может быть как-то учтена в формулах сокращения только при трех условиях: когда закончены государственные испытания, они еще полностью не закончены, раз; второе – когда начнется массовое производство таких ракет «Сармат», оно еще, как известно, не начато; и наконец, последнее предварительное условие, когда они поступят на вооружение, т. е. будут поставлены на боевое дежурство. Только тогда можно как-то разговаривать, и то надо смотреть, достигнут ли американцы точно таких же параметров, как у нас, потому что, извините, туз на шестерку, я имею в виду в карточной игре, никогда не меняют, никогда не сдают, вот.

Поэтому надо быть очень осторожным и не только опираясь на положения договора СНВ-III, но и вообще на состояние наших отношений. Сейчас они явно враждебные – как можно сокращать какие-то новые изделия в этой сфере, которых нет у противника? Ну создавайте свои, тогда и посмотрим, если создадите. Поэтому держать порох сухим, и в особенности когда оружие идет на Украину и американцы там являются самым главным снабжающим государством, причем тяжелыми видами вооружений, уже замахнулись. Поэтому ситуация довольно для них печальная, но нам ни в коем случае нельзя от таких козырей отказываться, нельзя, это опасно для национальной обороны и для национальной безопасности Российской Федерации. Студия?

Александр Денисов: Владимир Петрович, ни в коем случае нельзя. И можем припомнить девяностые: сидели на наших оборонных предприятиях, и еще волн пять расширения НАТО было. Ничем их не убедишь и не уговоришь.

Еще хотел заметить, безусловно, подтвердить вашу правоту: Бэрронс вчера, британский отставной военный, он сказал, что у НАТО абсолютно нет никакой возможности противостоять России.

Владимир Петрович, можем мы предположить, что ситуация будет развиваться таким образом? Если мы возьмем те гарантии, те требования о гарантиях безопасности, которые мы предъявили НАТО и США, там есть откат военной инфраструктуры НАТО до состояния 1997 года, – можем мы предположить, что после того, как мы разберемся, угомоним Украину, добьемся ее нейтрального статуса, это есть тоже в этих гарантиях, мы возьмемся за Прибалтику, дальше у нас Польша, Румыния и те страны, которые у себя разместили вот эту инфраструктуру двойного назначения, якобы она противоракетная, но легко в течение двух минут перепрограммируется в ударную? Можно мы предположить, что этот пункт мы тоже будем выполнять?

Владимир Козин: Там не только противоракетная система двойного назначения, т. е. когда пусковые установки, скажем, оперативная база США ПРО в Румынии, она уже на боевом дежурстве находится, в Польше будет скоро приведена в такое состояние, они еще не закончили. Но есть и средства двойного назначения авиационного базирования, т. е. операция «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» как раз в трех государствах Балтии и в Польше.

Но я думаю, что натовцы, американцы никогда не согласятся вернуться к размещению своих различных видов вооружений и Вооруженных сил до уровня 1997 года, это им надо просто застрелиться, они никогда не пойдут на это. Но требовать, допустим, ликвидации всех противоракетных систем наземного и морского базирования, а у американцев есть и системы ПРО морского базирования, они заходят и на Балтику, в северные моря, Средиземное и Черное, требовать ликвидации операции «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», где имеются самолеты-носители ядерного оружия четырех видов, в т. ч. неразмещение, скажем, нового самолета, тоже носителя ядерного оружия, Соединенных Штатов F-35 с индексом «Альфа» и «Си». Ну и вообще ликвидация огромного количества вооружений, которые находятся в натовских государствах, я сейчас не касаюсь Украины.

Конечно, ставить об этом надо [вопрос], потому что иначе над нашей страной будет висеть комбинированный дамоклов меч, я имею в виду это т. н. «чикагская триада», которая состоит собственно изракетно-ядерных вооружений стратегического и тактического назначения, раз, второе – из противоракетных систем, и третье – это из сил общего назначения, тяжелых видов вооружений, там самолеты, допустим, необязательно двойного назначения, но все равно очень большой довесок. И это все находится близ наших границ, и с Республикой Беларусь то же самое, и с Калининградской нашей областью, мы не можем забывать об этом нашем российском эксклаве на побережье Балтики.

Конечно, надо будет вести переговоры, но я не представляю пока, как это можно сделать, поскольку натовцы никогда ни в чем не уступали. В советские времена слишком много уступок сделали мы, может быть, мы их как-то приучили к таким действиям, допустим, уничтожили, срыли Красноярскую радиолокационную станцию предупреждения о ракетном нападении, уничтожили оперативно-тактическую ракету «Ока», которая вообще ни под каким соусом не подходила под Договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, из которого Трамп вышел 2 года назад почти. Студия?

Александр Денисов: Да, Владимир Петрович, спасибо большое. Действительно, вы верно говорите, что сложно представить, но на то и времена у нас такие пошли, что вчера это казалось невозможным, а сегодня происходит, вопрос решается.

Владимир Петрович Козин был у нас на связи, член-корреспондент Российской академии военных наук. Прекрасно сформулировал, «комбинированный дамоклов меч» над нами занесли – будем работать. Спасибо.

Владимир Козин: Ядерное оружие в Калининграде поможет России сдержать НАТО и защитить Белоруссию

До того как Украина получит F-16 России нужно занять Львов и Луцк, отрезать Украину от поставок западного оружия через Польшу и уничтожить все военные и гражданские аэродромы на украинской территории, считает политолог, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин.

Об этом он рассказал в интервью изданию Украина.ру.

— Владимир Петрович, вы вернулись с Балтики. Как там обстановка?

— Обстановка спокойная. Много туристов со всей России. В жаркую погоду пляжи на балтийском морском побережье Зеленоградска, Пионерского курорта и Светлогорска напоминают по насыщенности крымские пляжи в разгар летнего сезона — "яблоку негде упасть".

— Что происходит в Калининграде? В каком состоянии там наша военная группировка? Сколько времени на ее развёртывание нужно в случае угрозы?

— Можно рассказать очень много, но не про военную группировку, равно как и про сроки ее полного развертывания. Это — государственная тайна. Предполагаю, что она давно уже находится в полной боевой готовности, поскольку слишком много военных приготовлений со стороны Североатлантического пакта было реализовано в балтийском регионе, в особенности начиная с 2009 года.

Но традиционный военно-морской парад в Балтийске в конце июля, а также заметные полеты боевых самолетов российских ВВС в небе самой западной области России, окруженной двумя странами – членами НАТО Литвой и Польшей — не оставляют сомнения, что российский эксклав находится под надежной и комбинированной силовой защитой Вооруженных Сил нашей страны.

Также уверен, что в случае какой-то чрезвычайной ситуации, инициированной милитаристским Североатлантическим военным союзом как против Российской Федерации, так и Республики Беларусь, ближайшие соседи Калининградской области, входящие в НАТО, в этот паталогически агрессивный пакт, получат самый сокрушительный многовекторный удар.

Одновременно считаю, что российская военная группировка в Калининградской области также должна быть усилена нашим национальным тактическим ядерным оружием (ТЯО). США в одностороннем порядке вышли из Договора о ликвидации ядерных ракет средней и меньшей дальности, подписанного еще в 1987 году; договор прекратил действие. Американское ТЯО размещено на территории Литвы, Латвии и Эстонии в рамках круглосуточной и круглогодичной операции ВВС НАТО "Балтийское воздушное патрулирование", к обладанию которым также стремится Польша.

Учитывая данные факторы, Россия имеет полное право разместить ядерное оружие на калининградской земле. До подписания названного договора оно там было развернуто.

— Украинские военные укрепляют линию обороны на северном рубеже Волынской области, граничащем с Белоруссией, несмотря на то, что, по их же словам, "ситуация спокойная и контролируемая". Зачем они объявили прямо об усилении, если угроза остаётся гипотетической? Нужно ли нам придавать этому значение?

— Такие военные "укрепления" со стороны НАТО призваны создать угрозу безопасности и Калининградской области, и Республики Беларусь. Вторая причина военных приготовлений Североатлантического пакта в этой части европейского континента путем размещения боевых средств "передового базирования" — это сдержать возможность нанесения мощного удара России по Украине с тыла за то, что последняя развязала неспровоцированную масштабную агрессию сначала в 2014 году против Донбасса, а позднее в 2022 году — против России.

В последние годы Украина вместе с Польшей стали постоянно бряцать оружием на границах с Белоруссией — Союзным государством с Россией. В Польше уже давно высаживаются тяжелые стратегические бомбардировщики США с ядерным оружием на борту, а под Редзиково, близ Слупска, стала действовать американская операционная база системы ПРО, способная загружать в свои 24 пусковые установки не только оборонительные, но и наступательные вооружения, в том числе крылатые ракеты США повышенной дальности в ядерном снаряжении. Такая база расположена в 180 км от Калининграда. Также ее удаленность от Москвы в 1300 км и от Минска в 680 км — с этой базы можно наносить удары о ним.

Но в альянсе так называемой трансатлантической солидарности и в Киеве должны твердо знать: Москва и Минск уже имеют гарантированный силовой комбинированный ответ на накачивание натовскими вооружениями этой части

— Имеет ли смысл с военной точки зрения с нашей стороны провести операцию — условно говоря, занять Луцк и Львов и отрезать Украину от поставок западного оружия через Польшу?

— Проведение такой силовой операции вполне возможно. Причем — с занятием Львова и других крупных городов и военных баз в северо-западной и юго-западной частях Украины. Блокирование поставок натовских вооружений и военной техники возможно также продолжать осуществлять и с помощью ракет большой дальности и ударными средствами авиации ВВС России, что уже делается.

До реальных поставок американских истребителей-бомбардировщиков F-16 на Украину, сертифицированных под доставку корректируемых ядерных авиабомб, еще есть некоторое время. До этого часа "икс" необходимо уничтожить все военные и гражданские аэродромы на украинской территории, чтобы такие самолеты вообще не приземлялись на них.

В этом контексте хотел бы напомнить недавнее заявление командующего ВВС Украины Николая Олещука, который признал факт приземления названных истребителей-бомбардировщиков на территорию Украины.

Вероятно, не случайно кандидат в президенты США Роберт Кеннеди-младший заявил, что санкционированные Белым домом поставки F-16 на Украину не изменят ситуацию в ее пользу и не спасут ее от коллапса, но такие дестабилизируюшие авиационные средства представят угрозу не только для нее самой, но и для всего человечества.

Хотя он не пояснил свое суждение, но оно очевидно: американские самолеты двойного назначения вступят в боевое соприкосновение с боевыми российскими самолетами, имеющими более высокие тактико-технические и ударные характеристики по сравнению с американскими. И что дальше?

— Насколько опыт городских боев "Вагнера" может пригодиться при штурме Ковеля?

— Мое частное мнение: я против штурма городов "в лоб", сражаясь за каждый дом или переулок. Это потребовало бы много людских резервов. Для этого есть иные средства: полное окружение стратегически важных населенных пунктов неприятеля с последующим ультиматумом об их капитуляции. Не в обиду бойцам ЧВК "Вагнер" будет сказано, но все же хотел бы заметить, что они взяли полностью Артемовск не за одну неделю и не за один месяц. На это ушло почти 10 месяцев.

— Министр обороны Белоруссии Виктор Хренин на московской конференции по безопасности заявил, что возможность прямого боестолкновения с НАТО в будущем представляется весьма очевидной. По его словам, на Западе идут интенсивные военные приготовления, вкладываются огромные деньги, а в капиталистическом мире замораживать свои активы в оружии и раздутой армии просто так никто не будет. Чего опасается господин Хренин?

— Я считаю, что у белорусского министра обороны верное суждение. Он также заметил, что не просто так декларируется создание трехтысячной группировки войск НАТО высокой степени боеготовности на восточном фланге альянса; оно явно будет предназначено не для обороны, а для внезапного нападения и прикрытия стратегического развертывания основных ударных сил западного военно-политического блока.

Многочисленные факты военных приготовлений стран – членов НАТО у границ России и Беларуси из далекого прошлого, текущего настоящего и его военно-стратегические планы, проецированные в будущее, говорят нам следующее: порох надо стабильно держать сухим. То есть — соблюдать величайшую бдительность и не дать обвести себя вокруг пальца пустыми обещаниями военно-политического руководства альянса и преступного киевского режима.

Нельзя в этом контексте сбрасывать со счетов и агрессивные, наступательные военно-стратегические установки США и НАТО, ориентированные против России и КНР, а также наших союзников и друзей: стратегии национальной безопасности и обороны, ядерные и противоракетные стратегии, военно-космические доктрины и киберстратегии.

К такому выводу я пришел, проанализировав по шесть таких установок, одобренных отдельно друг от друга администрациями Трампа и Байдена. Монография за моим авторством на эту тему должна выйти в текущем году.

— Есть ли у НАТО сейчас ресурсы воевать с Россией и Белоруссией?

— Да, есть. Точнее сказать: частично есть. Но практика прямого участия вооруженных сил НАТО на стороне Украины в агрессии против России за последние полтора года свидетельствует о том, что в штаб-квартире альянса, расположенной в районе Эвере бельгийской столицы уже стали понимать: Россию коллективному Западу никогда не победить — ни с помощью обычных, ни с помощью ядерных вооружений. В особенности при наличии у нас самых передовых и перспективных видов неядерных и ядерных вооружений, которых нет у агрессивного сообщества западных государств.

Да, и не надо забывать то существенное обстоятельство: Россия уже практически модернизировала всю свою стратегическую ракетно-ядерную триаду, а США только приступили к этому длительному процессу. Да, и действующие гиперзвуковые системы американский ВПК пока не создал. А у нас они уже есть.

В этой связи рекомендовал бы американскому и украинскому военно-политическому руководству заучить русскую поговорку: "Семь раз отмерь, один раз отрежь". К нынешней ситуации она может интерпретироваться так: прежде чем принимать какие-то военно-политические решения в отношении России и Белоруссии подумайте крепко — к чему это может привести в отношении вас и ваших воинствующих сателлитов?

Беседовала Анна Черкасова. Источник: Украина.ру.

 

Владимир Козин: почему США не поддержали российский мораторий?

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО, член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН В.П. Козин выступил на ТВ Италии «Пангеа» с критикой потенциального размещения ракет средней дальности США в ядерном снаряжении в Европе и Азии.

В своем комментарии, он, в частности, отметил следующее.

Подписанный 6 ноября 2020 года контракт между корпорацией «Локхид Мартин» и Сухопутными силами США на создание прототипа ракет средней дальности, имеющей «стратегическое значение», означает, во-первых, что, предложенный Россией взаимный мораторий с американской стороной на развертывание новых ракет средней и меньшей дальности в тех регионах, где они отсутствуют, Вашингтон интересовать не будет; и, во вторых, что такие ракеты Соединенных Штатов будут реально оснащены ядерными, а не обычными боезарядами.

Это вытекает из сообщений Пентагона, в которых признается, что разрабатываемые ракеты этого типа будут иметь максимальную дальность свыше двух тысяч километров, решать стратегические задачи, изменят парадигму действий США против их «главных противников» в лице России и Китая, а также «всю ситуацию» на европейском и тихоокеанском ТВД. О том, что на названные ракеты будут установлены ядерные боезаряды, также говорит выступление тогдашнего министра обороны США Марка Эспера в Атлантическом совете 20 октября прошлого года.

Смотреть видео: https://www.davvero.tv/videos/l-avvertimento-di-mosca

Вмешательство продолжается, проблемы растут

В районе сирийского населенного пункта Хаджин продолжается безуспешное наступление на террористов из террористической группировки «Исламское государство» (ИГ) со стороны курдских формирований при поддержке коалиционных сил, возглавляемых США.
 
Имитация этой борьбы с террористами со стороны названной структуры продолжается в данном районе Сирии уже более полугода и используется Вашингтоном для оправдания своего незаконного присутствия в этой стране и ведения против нее агрессивных действий.
Пользуясь своей полной безнаказанностью, боевики «ИГ» 13 октября совершили нападение на лагерь беженцев в районе  Эль-Бахра, в результате которого захватили в заложники и вывезли в подконтрольный им Хаджин около 130 арабских семей.
 
Особо стоит отметить, что среди заложников у «ИГ» в этом районе теперь находятся более 700 человек, в том числе граждане западноевропейских и других государств.
В результате теперь террористы этот квазиисламского "государства» устанавливают свои правила игры в Заевфратье. Так, они уже выдвигают курдам ультиматумы по немедленному освобождению всех своих сторонников, удерживаемых СДС в специальных лагерях, и требуют передачи под свой контроль новых территорий на востоке Евфрата. А в качестве рычага давления ежедневно расстреливают
своих пленников и совершают другие военные и уголовные преступления.
 
К этому привели многочисленные грубые ошибки, допускаемые американскими военными в Сирии, которые бесцеремонно смешиваются во внутренние дела этого суверенного государства-члена ООН.
Наглядным свидетельством является  инцидент в районе того же Хаджина. 
Из-за непрофессиональных или целенаправленную враждебных действий американских ВВС по наступающему на «ИГ» курдскому формированию  был нанесен бомбовый удар двумя истребителями F-15 из состава сил коалиции. Погибло 6 курдских бойцов и еще порядка 15 получили серьезные ранения.
 
Отсутствие координации действий со стороны командования американских сил и СДС привело не только к срыву очередной попытки
наступления курдов, но и к массовому дезертирству их с занимаемого района. Теперь этот район вновь перешел под контроль террористов «ИГ». Все эти факты свидетельствуют о провале американской политики в Сирии, которая так же, как и в соседнем Ираке, не решает проблем, а вместо этого создает новые для всего региона крупные геополитические и национально-этнические проблемы, в том числе усугубляет проблему беженцев и внутренне перемещенных лиц.
 
Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/42534

Внешний и оборонный курс Байдена: конкретика и неопределённости

Предстоящий внешнеполитический курс Джозефа Байдена и, в частности, его подход к проблематике контроля над вооружениями вызывает противоречивые комментарии среди экспертного сообщества во многих странах мира

Отдельные аналитики считают, что он будет продолжателем внешнеполитического курса Барака Обамы, также представлявшего интересы Демократической партии, и в целом сохранит основные принципы контроля над вооружениями, которые реализовывал его названный «товарищ по партии», активно помогавший Джозефу Байдену во время предвыборной кампании 2019-2020 годов.

Другие эксперты высказывают предположения, что новый, 46-й по счёту, президент Соединённых Штатов привнесёт в американскую внешнюю политику и сферу контроля над вооружениями некоторые новации, продиктованные реальными изменениями в общемировой стратегической ситуации за последние четыре года, а также в российско-американских и китайско-американских отношениях.

Внешнеполитические ориентиры с минимальной корректировкой?

Скорее всего, истина будет лежать где-то посредине обозначенных двух точек зрения. И это первое предположение. А сам внешнеполитический курс США не станет автоматическим копированием линии в этой сфере, которой придерживался Дональд Трамп. Это второе замечание общего порядка, которое представляется весьма вероятным в силу существующих противоречий в предвыборных манифестах Демократической и Республиканской партий по ключевым направлениям американской государственно-политической и военной деятельности на международной арене.

Джозеф Байден намерен активизировать внешнеполитическую деятельность Америки за счёт, как он выражается, продвижения более конструктивной повестки дня в мире. Ещё в июле 2019 года он заявил, что в случае своего избрания в качестве главы государства он созовёт уже в первый год своего президентства саммит лидеров «мировых демократий» с целью восстановления влияния ключевых международных организаций на глобальные процессы и усиления американского воздействия в них.

Выступая в штате Делавер 7 ноября по итогам проведённых выборов, Джозеф Байден помпезно заявил о своём убеждении в том, что Соединённые Штаты «служат маяком мира». Пообещал, что сделает всё, чтобы их «снова уважали во всём мире», и одновременно акцентировал внимание на необходимости укрепления «лидерства» Америки. Применительно к мировой политике это может означать явное стремление к господству на международной арене.

Он настроен восстановить прежние прочные связи Вашингтона со всеми своими союзниками по НАТО, которых Дональд Трамп неоднократно пугал ослаблением традиционного военно-технического и политико-дипломатического взаимодействия с главным игроком в альянсе - Соединёнными Штатами.  

Советники нового хозяина Белого дома уверенно заявляют, что он поставит союзников и партнёров США «на передний план своей внешней политики». Очередной американский президент вряд ли будет шокировать своих союзников по альянсу твёрдым требованием не только обеспечить двухпроцентный рост военных расходов каждого государства-члена альянса относительно ВВП, но и довести до четырёх процентов, как это сделал президент-республиканец Дональд Трамп в преддверии саммита НАТО летом 2018 года. При этом двухпроцентный уровень расходов на военные нужды ему удалось «выбить» у участников блока лишь отчасти - только десять из тридцати участвующих в нём стран вышли на названный рубеж в текущем году.

Новый президент заявил о готовности улучшить отношения с Россией и КНР, но не разъяснил, на какой основе и когда это может произойти. Разумеется, здесь будут иметь принципиальное значение не красивые слова нового хозяина Белого дома и его высокопоставленной команды, а их практические дела.

В частности, лакмусовой бумажкой проверки искренности США в деле «улучшения» отношений с Россией будет реальная готовность Вашингтона снять разного рода надуманные торгово-экономические санкции, введённые против Москвы президентами Бараком Обамой и Дональдом Трампом. А это ни много ни мало в отношении 500 российских предприятий и учреждений, а также применительно к 300 отдельным российским гражданам. Для российской стороны будет являться немаловажным и безотлагательное возвращение её дипломатической собственности, захваченной республиканской администрацией в ходе нескольких рейдерских акций.

Джозеф Байден дал понять, что будет готов сохранить некоторую часть американских экспедиционных вооружённых сил на Ближнем и Среднем Востоке. Однако не уточнил их возможное количество и не определил предметно их основные боевые задачи.

Он заявлял, что хотел бы вернуться к ядерной сделке с Ираном, оформленной в виде Совместного всеобъемлющего плана действий, из которой инициативно вышел Дональд Трамп, но только после того, как Тегеран вновь начнёт выполнение всех своих обязательств, вытекающих из него. В частности, если иранская сторона возобновит доступ инспекционных групп к своим ядерным объектам. Подобное заявление Джозефа Байдена не означает, что его администрация ослабит военно-экономическое и пропагандистское давление на Иран в целом.

Джозеф Байден обещал в январе 2020 года, что возвысит престиж дипломатической службы в качестве главного инструмента внешней политики Соединённых Штатов, будет реинвестировать средства в её укрепление, которая, по его словам, была ослаблена республиканской администрацией, а также вновь усилит американскую дипломатию подлинными профессионалами. Отсутствие таковых в администрации Дональда Трампа, в Пентагоне, Государственном департаменте и частая смена в них руководящего состава стали существенным недостатком его президентства и привели к тупиковым последствиям во внешней политике страны.

Кредо: продолжать укрепление военного потенциала

Военно-политической и концептуальной основой в военной области США при Джозефе Байдене, скорее всего, станет внесение отдельных изменений в пять ключевых доктринальных стратегических установок, которые были утверждены в период президентства Дональда Трампа. А именно - в стратегию национальной безопасности и национальной обороны, а также в ракетно-ядерную, противоракетную и космическую стратегии страны. И в этом не будет ничего необычного - так поступают все вновь избираемые президенты. Не исключено, что Стратегия национальной безопасности 2017 года, в которой основными противниками Соединённых Штатов были заявлены Россия и КНР, останется генеральной линией внешней политики новоявленного президента.

Но ожидаемые корректировки на обозначенных направлениях вряд ли изменят общую военно-политическую сущность США. Вашингтон будет по-прежнему претендовать на неоспоримое господство в военной области как в глобальной проекции, так и в космическом пространстве.

Что касается расходов на военные цели, то нельзя игнорировать критику Джозефом Байденом своего предшественника Дональда Трампа за большие военные расходы Пентагона, которые в последние годы его правления достигли 750 млрд долларов в год и которые претендент на президентский пост от Демократической партии охарактеризовал как «доминирующие инвестиции в устаревшие возможности». По мнению нового президента, главное в этом вопросе не объёмы финансирования, а области такого финансирования, к которым, среди прочего, ближайшие советники будущего президента относят новые военные технологии и разработку передовых высокоточных систем вооружений.

Будущий владелец Овального кабинета в Белом доме одновременно заявлял о готовности выделять больше ассигнований на ключевые области национальной обороны, которые он назвал упущенными из виду, предметно упомянув, что подразумевает кибернетические средства, космические системы, беспилотные летательные аппараты, плюс развитие и более широкое внедрении искусственного интеллекта.

Не собираясь резко сократить перспективные военные расходы в ближайшие 30 лет, определённые ещё в период президентства Барака Обамы в суммарном виде до 1,3 трлн долл., 46-й президент Соединённых Штатов обещал, что не будет радикально менять бюджет Пентагона в сторону его уменьшения. Он не скрывал своего удовлетворения по поводу объёма тех денежных средств, которые администрация Обамы вложила в модернизацию ракетно-ядерного оружия страны, и обещал, что сможет потратить на ракетно-ядерные системы меньше, чем предшествующая республиканская администрация, но не существенно меньше уже утверждённого Конгрессом уровня, где по этому вопросу существует практически полное двухпартийное согласие законодателей.

С другой стороны, президент-выдвиженец от Демократической партии призывал к более крупным инвестициям и в другие элементы национальной власти, такие как дипломатия и торгово-экономическая деятельность. По его мнению, США стали чрезмерно зависимыми от военных в процессе продвижения американских интересов в сфере безопасности за рубежом и не получают адекватных финансовых вливаний в невоенные направления деятельности, включая дипломатическую службу, укрепление экономической мощи, повышение уровня образования, науки и разработку передовых технологий.

В своём обращении к нации из столицы штата Делавер 7 ноября Джозеф Байден многообещающе заявил, что будет основывать американское «лидерство» не на примере силы, а на силе примера. Заявка примечательная. Но будет ли новая администрация следовать этой максиме все четыре года её пребывания у власти? Далеко не праздный вопрос.

Можно ли ожидать прорыва в контроле над вооружениями?

Джозеф Байден неоднократно говорил о необходимости поиска новых и сохранения ранее заключённых международных соглашений по контролю над вооружениями. Интересно: каких «новых»? Нет ясности, что он имеет в виду. Но маловероятно, что новая администрация в Вашингтоне под его руководством радикально повернёт такую линию в русло конструктивизма в целом.

С одной стороны, Джозеф Байден, будучи вице-президентом в период деятельности администрации Барака Обамы, проецировал себя лишь довольно умеренным сторонником ограничения ракетно-ядерного оружия и укрепления режима его нераспространения. Он заявлял, что восстановит «контроль над вооружениями и нераспространение» с субстантивной оговоркой: только в качестве центральной опоры глобального лидерства США. При этом он неоднократно критиковал ядерную политику президента Дональда Трампа и обещал отойти от её гипертрофированной агрессивности.

Наиболее политически сильным стало заявление Джозефа Байдена о готовности рассмотреть вопрос совместно с другими ядерными государствами о принятии совместного обязательства о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе.

После создания в 1945 году ядерного оружия ни один американский глава государства не реализовал эту довольно простую идею предотвращения преднамеренного или случайного ракетно-ядерного конфликта. В ходе предвыборной кампании новоизбранный глава американского государства выступал за сохранение моратория на проведение ядерных испытаний, заявляя, что не поддерживает развёртывание ядерного оружия малой мощности, то есть с боезарядами от 5 килотонн и меньше (для сравнения: атомная бомба, сброшенная американцами на Хиросиму в 1945 году, имела боезаряд в 15 килотонн).

Да, Джозеф Байден высказывался за продление Договора СНВ-3, но он детально не прокомментировал многократно повторённые Россией предложения о его пролонгации безо всяких предварительных условий и на максимально обозначенный в договоре срок - до пяти лет. Не подтвердил он пока и «формулы Барака Обамы», то есть его инициативы о дальнейшем сокращении стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений США и России в рамках нового Договора СНВ-4 до уровня 1.000-1.100 единиц ядерных боезарядов для каждой стороны. С таким предложением тот выступил вскоре после своего вступления в должность и даже засылал в Москву своего специального представителя с соответствующим посланием, но оно не было принято по принципиальным соображениям, поскольку не включало решение вопроса об американском тактическом ядерном оружии передового базирования в Европе и бесконтрольном распространении систем ПРО США в глобальном масштабе.

С другой стороны, Джозефа Байдена никак нельзя считать последовательным «борцом за глобальное ядерное разоружение».

Джозеф Байден определил потенциальное возобновление 45-м президентом ядерных испытаний на невадском ядерном полигоне, что было отражено в ядерной стратегии США 2018 года, как «безрассудный и опасный шаг». Проверкой искренности президента-демократа по этой проблеме будет его желание или нежелание ратифицировать Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний. Напомним: единственная попытка американского Сената ратифицировать его в 1999 году провалилась и больше никогда не возобновлялась, хотя этого не раз обещал добиться «гуру» Джозефа Байдена - президент Барак Обама.

Нет сомнений в том, что пришедшая к власти «демократическая администрация», которая официально начнёт действовать с 20 января следующего года с момента вступления Джозефа Байдена в должность президента, будет продолжать курс на радикальную модернизацию американских ракетно-ядерных вооружений стратегического и тактического назначения; ориентировать нацию на глобальное наращивание средств противоракетной обороны, в том числе морского базирования, и на совершенствование обычных вооружений, делая при этом упор на их выдвижение «на передовые рубежи», то есть поближе к территориям Российской Федерации и КНР, а также ряда других государств.

Нет пока готовности новой администрации вернуться в Договор о торговле оружием и в Договор об открытом небе. Нет ясности, как она поступит с предложением Москвы о введении моратория на размещение нового ракетного оружия, подпадающего под определения разорванного Дональдом Трампом Договора о ликвидации РСМД в тех районах, где оно ещё не развёрнуто. Скорее всего, новая администрация одновременно не поддержит предложение многих государств мира о превращении района Ближнего Востока в зону, свободную от оружия массового уничтожения, в том числе ракетно-ядерного, и не исключено, что проигнорирует международный Договор о запрещении ядерного оружия 2017 года.

Нет признаков, что Джозеф Байден собирается уменьшить глобальную базовую инфраструктуру вооружённых сил США, которая давно опутала весь земной шар.

Политика Белого дома подвергнется «косметическому ремонту»

Похоже, что во внешней и военной политике нового американского руководства, а также в сфере контроля над вооружениями могут произойти некоторые корректировки, но не столь грандиозные, чтобы испытывать чувство избыточного оптимизма. Имеется конкретика по отдельным направлениям его деятельности. Но есть и неопределённости, что вполне естественно.

Деятельность администрации Джозефа Байдена, скорее всего, будет носить двойственный характер. Она будет меняться как в зависимости от развития региональной и глобальной ситуации в стратегической сфере, так и от степени влияния на него ближайшего высокопоставленного окружения нового главы государства и его советников.

Такая деятельность будет определяться и состоянием отношений с двумя крупными военно-политическими игроками на международной арене - Российской Федерацией и Китайской Народной Республикой. Всё это потребует внимательного анализа политических заявлений и конкретных дел американской стороны в мире, а также в области российско-американских и китайско-американских отношений.

Важно попытаться постепенно убедить новое американское военно-политическое руководство в необходимости снижения уровня глобального противостояния и реального укрепления стратегической стабильности в мире политическими, а не военными средствами, а в концептуально-стратегическом плане - подвигнуть его к переходу от стратегии наступательного и безусловного ядерного сдерживания к оборонительному неядерному сдерживанию, которое не будет содержать угрозы применения силы в адрес любого государства мира.

Необходимо более решительно ставить перед новым президентом США и вопрос об отзыве из Европы и Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона комбинированных американских средств передового базирования, которые радикально дестабилизируют там военно-политическую обстановку и сохраняют высоким уровень недоверия между великими ядерными державами.

Автор: Владимир Козин. Источник: еженедельник “Звезда”

Вновь ДРСМД: двойная ложь США после его денонсации

Ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО В.П. Козин — о том, что Вашингтон в очередной раз прибегает к обману мировой общественности в привязке к разрушенному им договору 1987 года.

Развалив в начале августа этого года под лживым предлогом и в одностороннем порядке Договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности 1987 года (ДРСМД), предписавший их полное уничтожение, Вашингтон, который свыше 30 лет публично признавал его «краеугольным камнем международной безопасности», вновь опустился в привязке к нему — теперь уже до новой двойной лжи в адрес Российской Федерации и применительно к своим собственным военным планам.

Прежде чем дать пояснение, в чем заключается эта «новая двойная ложь», следует напомнить, что реальной причиной денонсации этого договорного акта Соединенными Штатами стало не его «нарушение» российской стороной, что до сих пор не нашло никакого фактического и документально доказанного подтверждения со стороны Пентагона и Государственного департамента США. Такой причиной стала давно продуманная линия на воссоздание ядерного оружия в американском ядерном арсенале в виде названных ракет двух классов, но уже с качественно новыми тактико-техническими характеристиками.

В американских вооруженных силах уже давно были созданы шесть типов ракет средней и меньшей дальности после подписания ДРСМД. Они регулярно тестировались в качестве ракет-мишеней для проверки эффективности ракет-перехватчиков системы ПРО. Такие испытания начались в октябре 1999 года и продолжались вплоть до августа 2019 года, то есть до одностороннего выхода США из ДРСМД.

В общей сложности за этот период времени Пентагон использовал в качестве объектов перехвата 117 учебных ракет средней и меньшей дальности. Об этом свидетельствуют официальные американские источники — специальные пресс-релизы Управления по ПРО Министерства обороны и доклады Исследовательской службы Конгресса США. Надо уточнить: в названных показателях не фигурируют учебные баллистические ракеты межконтинентальной дальности, то есть с дальностью стрельбы свыше 5500 км, которые также перехватывались средствами противоракетного «щита» Пентагона несколько раз. Не учитываются и учебные ракеты с дальностью меньше, чем ракеты с дальностью от 500 км и далее, которые уничтожались ударно-боевыми средствами американских ЗРК «Пэтриот».

Российская Федерация проводила испытания ракет либо межконтинентальной дальности, либо ракеты с дальностью меньше 500 км, что не запрещалось договором 1987 года. Иными словами, Москва ни разу не вышла за рамки его ограничений. По этой причине счет 117:0 по несоблюдению ДРСМД зафиксирован в пользу именно Соединенных Штатов, а не Российской Федерации.

Итак, в чем же проявляется нынешняя новая двойная ложь Вашингтона уже после инициативной денонсации им ДРСМД?

Ее первая часть связана с предложением Москвы договориться с Вашингтоном о введении взаимного моратория на развертывание новых ракет средней и меньшей дальности в тех районах, где они до сих пор не размещаются. Иными словами, с российской стороны предлагается формула о взаимном неразмещении первыми ракетных средств средней и меньшей дальности России и США в определенных географических районах.

Такое предложение позволило бы не допустить взаимного развертывания баллистических и крылатых ракет сторон названных двух классов, коль скоро их производство и развертывание после 2 августа 2019 года ничем не ограничивается. Но США и НАТО уже неоднократно повторили отказ реализовать такую довольно простую и понятную инициативу на том основании, что Россия, мол, уже развернула ракету 9М729, которая, по мнению Вашингтона, подпадает под ограничения ДРСМД, который уже не действует.

Но эта ракета ни до развала ДРСМД американскими контрагентами, ни после их столь опрометчивого шага, никогда не подпадала и до сих пор не подпадает под ограничения этого договора, поскольку ее максимально предельная дальность составляет 480 км, что на 20 км меньше то дальности, с которой определяется дальность ракет меньшей дальности по условиям договора 1987 года. Об этом было официально объявлено на совместной пресс-конференции Министерства обороны и Министерства иностранных дел России в январе текущего года. Но США и НАТО по-прежнему повторяют свою старую песню: ракета 9М729 все еще «нарушает» ДРСМД, который благодаря целенаправленным «стараниям» Вашингтона и при широкой морально-политической поддержке штаб-квартиры НАТО в Брюсселе канул в Лету.

Отказ ввести такой двусторонний мораторий со стороны США и Североатлантического союза означает одно: они действительно намерены разместить ракеты средней дальности, например, в Европе, повторив таким образом «двойное решение» НАТО 1979 года о развертывании там «Першингов» и «Томагавков» с ядерными боезарядами.

Вторая новая ложь американской стороны в привязке к ДРСМД заключается в том, что она постоянно твердит, что ее ракеты-перехватчики системы противоракетной обороны, которые уже поставлены на боевое дежурство на американской операционной базе ПРО в Румынии, построенной на военно-воздушной базе «Девеселу», не могут быть заменены на крылатые ракеты класса «Томагавк» средней дальности наступательного характера, поскольку, мол, для этого требуется переналадка программного обеспечения и проведение других инженерно-технических работ, которые сделали бы возможным замену оборонительных вооружений на наступательные виды.

Но в реальности, ничего кардинально переделывать под такую замену и не требуется: универсальные пусковые установки системы ПРО типа «Мк-41» могут без проблем загружать не только ракеты-перехватчики, но и крылатые ракеты наземного базирования первого удара. Вслед за Румынией аналогичный комплекс ПРО США появится в конце следующего года и на польской территории — близ Редзиково, что под Слупском.

Примечательно, что новая ложь номер два официального Вашингтона о невозможности размещения крылатых ракет наземного базирования класса «Томагавк» в Румынии и Польше опровергается представителями военно-промышленного комплекса и экспертами в области обороны США, которые утверждали в беседе с корреспондентами аналитического еженедельника «Джейнс дифенс уикли», что американская система ПРО «Иджис» наземного базирования может быть «легко перестроена и модифицирована под размещение „Томагавков“». Тех самых, которые были запрещены ДРСМД. Об этом свидетельствует соответствующая публикация о развитии в Соединенных Штатах концепции последующего создания и развертывания ракет средней дальности после развала ДРСМД (см.: Ashley Roque and Michael Fabey. «US proceeding with ground-launched intermediate-range missile concepts//Jane’s Defence Weekly. 2019, September 4. p.11).

В этой связи необходимо заметить, что жители Европы и Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона, где планируется разместить универсальные пусковые установки «Мк-41» системы «Иджис» наземного базирования, а также собственно три-четыре варианта новых баллистических и крылатых ракет США (в основном средней дальности), вновь становятся заложниками американской наступательной ракетно-ядерной политики, которая взламывает региональную и глобальную безопасность и заводит в глухой тупик процесс контроля над вооружениями.

Автор: В.П. Козин, Источник: Сайт МГИМО

Вновь старая песня

Официальный представитель Пентагона подполковник Мишель Балданза подтвердила, что в США начали производить компоненты для ракет, которые подпадают под запрет Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД). По поступающей из Вашингтона информации, американская сторона намерена произвести испытания новых запрещённых договором ракет этого класса: крылатой ракеты наземного базирования средней дальности от 1000 до 5500 км и баллистической ракеты повышенной средней дальности от 4000 до 5500 км в августе и ноябре этого года, то есть уже после окончательного выхода из этого бессрочного договорного акта, подписанного в 1987 году.

Указанное сообщение, с одной стороны, лишний раз подтверждает линию Вашингтона, направленную на его денонсацию, а, с другой стороны, – маскирует тот факт, что американские визави в течение последних 20 лет уже использовали 117 новых ракет средней и меньшей дальности в качестве ракет-мишеней в нарушение ДРСМД при тестировании эффективности глобальной системы ПРО США. При этом были задействованы шесть типов ракет-мишеней этих двух классов: Aries, GLCM-X, Hera, LRALT, MRT-1 и Storm-2, однозначно запрещённых договором 1987 года.

Одновременно США до сих пор не удалось доказать, что российская сторона каким-то образом нарушила этот договор.

В этой связи любопытно очередное заявление на эту тему генерального секретаря НАТО Йенса Столтенберга, который призвал Россию вернуться к исполнению ДРСМД, который уже давно фактически был разорван США, а также к положениям Договора об обычных вооружённых силах в Европе, Соглашение об адаптации (известное как Адаптированный ДОВСЕ), которое американская сторона и остальные ее союзники-участники этой договорённости вообще отказались ратифицировать – в отличие от России, которая сделала это еще в 2004 году.

Интересно: как долго США и НАТО будут продолжать вводить в заблуждение мировое сообщество относительно того, кто и когда нарушил два указанных важных международных договорных акта в сфере контроля над вооружениями?

Автор: Владимир Козин – ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России

Военнообязанным украинкам запретят выезжать из страны с 1 октября

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в эфире телеканала Москва 24

С 1 октября с Украины запретят выезжать всем военнообязанным женщинам. На воинский учет обязаны встать специалисты в 14 областях.

Кому придется отправиться в военкомат, как объясняют этот шаг в Киеве и не отправят ли на фронт женские батальоны?

Источник: Москва 24.

 

Военные расходы США достигли астрономических сумм

Утверждён бюджет Пентагона на 2020-й финансовый год.

Военные расходы США в 2020-м финансовом году, который начался 1 октября текущего года, составят 738 млрд долларов. Это стало известно, после того как палата представителей конгресса 11 декабря и сенат 16 декабря утвердили соответствующий законопроект, а президент Дональд Трамп тут же, как и обещал, подписал его.

Согласно бюджету американское государство выделит на военные цели средств на 3,1 процента больше, чем годом раньше. Это позволит, как подчёркивается в документе, остаться США «превосходящей военной силой в мире», гарантировать сохранение равновесия сил в ключевых регионах мира в пользу Америки, обеспечивать прогресс и международный порядок, который в наибольшей степени способствует американской безопасности и процветанию.

Выделенные средства распределены следующим образом. Пентагон на свои «базовые нужды» получит 635 млрд долларов. Ещё 71,5 млрд будет направлено на продолжение военных операций в Афганистане, Сирии, Йемене и на действия американской армии в других странах. 31,5 млрд выделяется министерству энергетики на поддержание боеготовности ядерного оружия и его модернизацию, а также на другие оборонные затраты.

В развитии видов вооружённых сил приоритет отдан ВМС, которым выделено 50 млрд долларов. Большей частью они пойдут на строительство новых надводных кораблей и подводных лодок, что должно вывести Америку на принципиально новый уровень морского могущества.

Затем следуют ВВС, которые получат 44,4 млрд долларов. Наибольшие расходы среди авиации нестратегического назначения предусмотрены для закупки многоцелевого истребителя пятого поколения F-35 (343,59 млн долларов), два типа которых из трёх являются потенциальными носителями ядерного оружия.

На развитие сухопутных сил выделено 40,16 млрд долларов. Одной из самой расходных статей этого вида вооружённых сил станет закупка большого количества лёгких тактических машин, чтобы обеспечить «непревзойдённую мобильность, защищённость и огневую мощь» американской армии для обеспечения превосходства на поле боя.

Значительные средства будут выделены космическим силам, которые будут созданы в следующем году и которым предписано «доминировать» в космосе. В целом на военные космические программы Пентагону предлагается предоставить 14 млрд долларов, что на 14 процентов больше, чем в 2019-м финансовом году.

Что касается выделенных средств министерству энергетики и национальному управлению по ядерной безопасности, то примерно 570 млн долларов из них пойдёт на создание качественно новой МБР, которая пока именуется как «GBSD»: ракета «стратегического сдерживания наземного базирования».

Около 77 млн будет израсходовано на новую крылатую ракету воздушного базирования в ядерном снаряжении – ALCM. На новую ядерную корректируемую авиабомбу В-61-12, которая вскоре поступит на вооружение и будет устанавливаться как на F-35, так и на перспективный стратегический бомбардировщик В-21 «Рейдер», в бюджете заложена сумма свыше 800 млн долларов.

Расходы на развитие системы ПРО составят 9,49 млрд долларов. На реализацию третьего этапа внедрения этой системы, главным элементом которого станет завершение строительства оперативного комплекса ПРО США в Редзиково (Польша), будет выделено 25,6 млн долларов. Ещё 135,56 млн долларов предполагается израсходовать на систему ПРО космического базирования, что в пять раз превысило первоначально запрошенную сумму на эти цели.

Несмотря на неоднократные заявления Трампа о том, что военное присутствие США за рубежом будет сокращаться, базовая стратегия, судя по бюджету, останется неизменной. США сохранят около 800 американских военных баз, которые разбросаны практически по всей планете: на их содержание выделяется 150 млрд долларов.

Бюджет закладывает также солидные средства для «расширенного противодействия» России и КНР, что, подчеркнём, вступает в противоречие со словесной «заинтересованностью» Вашингтона развивать отношения с Москвой и Пекином. Весьма странно, что в бюджет Пентагона введена тема экономических санкций против России («наказание» за Крым и «газовые потоки» в Европу).

Предусмотрен и рост ассигнований на приобретение Украиной боевых «смертоносных вооружений» США (на сумму 300 млн долларов). Речь, возможно, пойдёт, судя по иностранным СМИ, о поставках «крылатых ракет прибрежной обороны» и противокорабельных ракет. Поставки американского военного снаряжения (с 2014 года на общую сумму

1,5 млрд долларов), как и участие военнослужащих ряда стран НАТО в боевой подготовке украинской армии, уже позволили ВСУ существенно укрепить свой потенциал.

Итак, нынешняя республиканская администрация продолжает курс на поддержку своего военно-промышленного комплекса, который благосклонно отнёсся к приходу Трампа в Белый дом, и проецирование военной мощи США в глобальном масштабе, а также политику достижения превосходства в космическом пространстве. 45-й президент всецело выполняет свои предвыборные обещания, данные капитанам ВПК и генералитету.

Как свидетельствуют официальные документы Пентагона, и в будущем намечено перспективное наращивание военного бюджета США. В «зелёной книге» американского военного ведомства о перспективных расходах на военные цели, которая вышла в мае этого года, предусматривается дальнейшее повышение военных ассигнований в ближайшие пять лет. В абсолютном выражении к 2024 финансовому году эта сумма может составить 796,2 млрд долларов.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: “Красная звезда”   

Возможно ли сокращение «ядерных расходов» США?

Неправительственная организация «Ассоциация по контролю над вооружениями» (АКНВ), действующая в США и известная своими разработками в сфере сдерживания ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и иных видов вооружений, а также укрепления международной безопасности, подготовила критический доклад о политике президента Дональда Трампа в сфере ядерных вооружений и перспективных расходов на них, которые специалистам Ассоциации представляются слишком раздутыми. Недавно вышедший доклад, озаглавленный «Ядерные излишки США: осознавая расходы, риски и альтернативы» («U.S. Nuclear Excess: Understanding the Costs, Risks, and Alternatives»), состоит из 50 страниц.

В нем делается ключевой вывод о том, что политика главы Белого дома в этой сфере нацелена на подготовку к потенциальному конфликту с применением оружия массового поражения, хотя вероятность нанесения ракетно-ядерного удара со стороны России представляется составителям документа крайне незначительной. В докладе утверждается: «Нынешний курс нецелесообразен, ненадёжен, небезопасен и требует пересмотра. Ещё не поздно пойти по другому пути. Пора произвести переоценку планируемых расходов на ядерное оружие, и надо успеть сделать это до того, как будут вложены самые крупные суммы».

Подобные «крупные суммы» на ядерные вооружения официальным Вашингтоном не скрываются. К 2028 году они составят 7 процентов от всего военного бюджета страны. На модернизацию существующих СНВ предполагается выделить в ближайшее десятилетие в абсолютных цифрах до 500 млрд. долларов, а на создание и поддержание принципиально новой стратегической ядерной триады в грядущие 30 лет намечено израсходовать от 1,2 трлн. долларов (в стабильных ценах 2017 года) до 1,7 трлн. долларов (с учетом инфляционных ожиданий в названный период времени).

В докладе осуждается решение администрации Дональда Трампа создать и применить ядерные боезаряды малой мощности.

Специалисты Ассоциации по контролю над вооружениями также отметили, что администрация Дональда Трампа не только увеличивает расходы на модернизацию ядерного арсенала, но и взяла курс на выход из ряда международных договоров по контролю над вооружениями. В этом контексте напоминается уже объявленный Вашингтоном односторонний выход из ДРСМД, что может произойти в начале августа текущего года. Кроме того, здесь обращают внимание на то, что, хотя Белый дом обещал изложить свою позицию по Договору СНВ-3 только в следующем году, официальные представители Государственного департамента по-прежнему дают ему негативную оценку, которая полностью совпадает с аналогичной квалификацией, которую озвучивал в ходе избирательной компании сам Дональд Трамп.

Доклад содержит объяснение наращивания столь внушительных расходов в США на ядерные вооружения: «Для оправдания роста военных расходов, для оправдания наращивания ядерного потенциала американцы опять нашли «страшилку» в лице России. Мы понимаем, что за этим стоит желание влить огромное количество средств в военно-промышленный комплекс, мы понимаем, какие триллионы долларов за этим стоят», говорится в документе.

В свою очередь авторы доклада предлагают пути снижения военных расходов.

Первый вариант подразумевает отмену дополнительных затрат, предложенных администрацией Дональда Трампа в рамках модернизации стратегических ядерных сил, предусмотренной еще в период деятельности президента США Барака Обамы. Ассоциация считает, что это позволит экономить почти 29 млрд. долларов.

Второй вариант заключается в более экономичном развертывании около 1550 ядерных боезарядов стратегического назначения, зафиксированных в Договоре СНВ-3. В частности, предлагается сократить количество атомных подводных лодок класса «Огайо», вооружённых баллистическими ракетами, и наземных МБР «Минитмен-3», а также не продлевать срок службы последних. По прикидкам Ассоциации, на этом Соединенные Штаты смогли бы сэкономить 120,5 млрд. долларов. Если прибавить к этому отказ от дополнительных расходов, предусмотренных в первом пункте, то сумма экономии может увеличиться почти до 150 млрд. долларов.

Наиболее выгодным экспертам из Ассоциации представляется третий вариант, который предполагает сокращение количества стратегических ядерных боезарядов и ликвидацию МБР наземного базирования, а также снижение количества ядерных боезарядов стратегического назначения до уровня 1000 единиц, то есть примерно до уровня, который был предложен еще в период деятельности администрации Барака Обамы, Напомним, что он высказывался за снижение ядерных боезарядов стратегического назначения до уровня 1000-1100 единиц для каждой стороны.

Таким образом, по мнению Ассоциации, в ближайшие 30 лет американская сторона смогла бы сэкономить относительно ранее объявленных сумм на модернизацию ядерного арсенала США в бюджете страны около 253  млрд. долларов, а в сочетании с отменой инициированных Дональдом Трампом дополнительных расходов – до  281,8 млрд. долларов.

На мой взгляд, описанные сокращения денежных средств на развитие ракетно-ядерных вооружений США являются довольно большими, но не значительными. Действительно, если сравнить сумму снижения американских ассигнований на ядерные вооружения с максимальным потолком расходов на «триллионную» стратегическую ядерную триаду, то процент сокращений составит всего 16,5%. Не густо.

Но остающиеся в результате таких предполагаемых сокращений значительные средства позволят все равно Пентагону основательно и энергично развивать в течение трех десятилетий стратегические ядерные вооружения, по сути дела не снижая значительного количества стратегических ядерных носителей. А их суммарный объем, если учесть еще крылатые ракеты воздушного базирования, может составить до 1700 носителей, то есть, 692 носителей стратегической ядерной триады плюс 1000 ядерных КРВБ. А все это, надо напомнить, по-прежнему может быть использовано для нанесения первого ядерного удара по большой группе государств.

Белый дом не пойдет и на ликвидацию американских наземных МБР, как это предложили эксперты АКНВ, с целью создания ядерной «диады». Такой твердый курс вытекает из современной ядерной стратегии Соединенных Штатов, одобренной президентом Дональдом Трампом в феврале прошлого года. Дело в том, что каждый элемент ныне действующей стратегической ядерной триады, по мнению высшего американского военно-политического руководства, имеет свои функциональные задачи и преимущества над остальными двумя компонентами, то есть БРПЛ и тяжелыми стратегическими бомбардировщиками. Современные американские МБР – это элемент стратегических ядерных сил, которые, находясь в самой высокой степени боеготовности (до 98%) могут быть применимы в течение коротких промежутков времени по сравнению с двумя другими видами.

Знакомясь с представленным докладом АКНВ, следует обратить внимание на то, что в нем нет полной картины негативного отношения Вашингтона к международным договорам и соглашениям в сфере контроля над вооружениями. А ведь в этом списке значатся 13 таких договорных актов, в том числе шесть соглашений, которые имеют прямое отношение к ядерному оружию. В докладе АКНВ упоминается их только малая толика. В этой связи американской стороне надо посоветовать более серьезно и более ответственно относиться ко своим договорным обязательствам в названной области, где по вине США возник глубокий «каньон».

И последнее замечание. Нынешняя американская администрация вряд ли примет подобные предложения, подготовленные названной американской НКО. Причина? Она раскрыта в подготовленном ею докладе. Это – стремление США начать «новую гонку ядерных вооружений». И это полностью соответствует действительности.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: ИнфоРос

Возможности развязывания ядерной войны и их практическое устранение

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ В.П. Козин выступил на международной встрече экспертов, организованной представительством Международного комитета Красного креста в Москве 4 июня с докладом "Возможности развязывания ядерной войны и их практическое устранение (The possibilities for unleashing a nuclear war and their real avoidance). В нем он  выделил семь факторов, которые свидетельствуют о понижении американской стороной порога применения ядерного оружия, а также выдвинул в личном качестве семь практических предложений, которые могли бы подобные возможности устранить.

Вот что я должен сказать Дэвиду Филлипсу

Член-корреспондент РАВН В.П. Козин ответил на провокационную статью директора программы миростроительства и прав человека Колумбийского университета (США) Дэвида Филлипса, в которой он предлагает Вашингтону начать прямую конфронтацию с КНР и Россией. Ранее он работал старшим советником при администрациях Клинтона, Буша и Обамы. Статья была опубликована в «Балкан инсайт» 8 июля с.г.: David L. Phillips. A Global US Can’t Avoid Confronting China and Russia.
 

 


This is what I have to say to David Phillips

The article written by David Phillips is really war-oriented.

It is extremely biased.

It contains distortions and intentional lies. E.g. that Russia has military base at Nis, in Serbia. It is just one example.

It represents open interference into internal affairs of some sovereign and independent states.

In terms of Russia, it exists in the form of justification of the U.K. combat vessel illegal presence in the territorial waters of the Russian Federation near Crimea. With extra encouragement to continue such practice in violation of the sea law.

In terms of Serbia, it exists in the form of diktat addressed to Belgrade not to establish military installations on its own territory. Can Phillips imagine that any foreign state will criticize Washington for expanding its Naval base in San Diego?

As to the notion expressed by this author that “The US is on collision course with China and Russia ….”. It is correct observation. But it could be more correct if it is added: “The US is intentionally on collision course with China and Russia, thus playing with fire that will deliver to Washington no positive results. And such policy will bring the world at large to the most dangerous confrontation with them both – much more deadly than during the Cold War of the past century.

David Phillips claims that Russia is a world power in decline, while China is on the rise. I have to dissatisfy him: both Russia and China are on the rise, and their rise will multiply because they have begun acting together in a comprehensive way. Can the USA stop their union? Now never.

David Phillips has stockpiled his essay with numerous accusations of China and Russia of conducting military activity. It looks like the USA does not engage in such activity at all? Much more. And multi-dimensionally on the global scale. 

How to make the world not to be overtaken by David Phillips’ ‘one point of view’?

The possible answer: to give him professional answer to all his ‘revelations’ contained in every paragraph of his essay.

Встреча президентов России и Америки: момент истины

Станет ли неприменение ядерного оружия в первом ударе одной из тем на Женевском саммите Россия-США?

В преддверии российско-американского саммита в Женеве 16 июня многие зарубежные НКО, занимающиеся проблематикой контроля над вооружениями и поиском путей укрепления стратегической стабильности, а также проявляющие беспокойство в связи нарастанием угрозы развязывания ракетно-ядерной войны, выступили с инициативой принятия всеми ядерными государствами обязательства о неприменении ядерного оружия первыми (первым) или сокращённо НЯОП (на английском: «no-first-use» или сокращенно NFU, а в американском военно-политическом лексиконе NFS или «no-first-strike»).

Принцип неприменения ядерного оружия первыми подразумевает полный отказ ядерного государства от применения ядерного оружия в первом ядерном ударе, который может быть зафиксирован в декларативной форме в одностороннем порядке или на многосторонней основе, например, в виде многосторонней юридически обязывающей договорённости.

Немного истории

Эта идея не является какой-то новой.

В декабре 1945 года Советский Союз поставил вопрос вообще о запрещении атомного оружия, которое в случае запрета никогда не могло бы быть использовано ни в каком ударе - ни в первом, ни во втором. И так далее.

Это предложение было выдвинуто советской делегацией на Московском совещании министров иностранных дел СССР, США и Великобритании. Затем оно было внесено советской делегацией в декабре 1946 года в Первом комитете Генеральной Ассамблеи ООН, который занимается вопросами разоружения.  

В сентябре 1959 года советская делегация на XIV сессии Генеральной Ассамблеи ООН предложила принять проект Декларации о всеобщем и полном разоружении всех государств, предусматривавший запрещение ядерного и водородного оружия, прекращение его производства и ликвидацию его запасов.

В 1964 году с инициативой о неприменении первыми ядерного оружия выступила КНР, которая в одностороннем порядке взяла на себя подобное обязательство, произведя испытание ядерного взрывного устройства.

В 1978 году такую идею на Специальной сессии ГА ООН по разоружению вновь публично повторил Советский Союз. В результате чего в пункт 58 Программы действий, одобренной сессией, было включено положение о необходимости недопущения «применения ядерного оружия или угрозы его применения».

В 1982 году СССР вновь публично повторил предложение о НЯОП.

Участники Варшавского договора в 1987 году приняли военную доктрину, в которой записали, что они никогда не применят ядерное оружие вообще, то есть ни в первом, ни в каком ином по счёту ударе.

В 1998 году политику НЯОП провозгласило ещё одно государство - Индия.

Актуализировав свою ядерную доктрину принятием в июне 2020 года «Основ государственной политики Российской Федерации в области ядерного сдерживания», Кремль подтвердил в четвёртом пункте этого документа, что общенациональная стратегия в этой области носит «оборонительный характер». В ноябре того же года в ходе совещания с руководством Минобороны, федеральных ведомств и предприятий ОПК страны президент Владимир Путин заявил, что нанесение первого ядерного удара является недопустимым. Названные заявления имеют большое практическое значение, поскольку в западном экспертном сообществе существует мнение, что с 1993 года Москва, якобы, отказалась от своей приверженности НЯОП. Как видно, это не так.

Что думают противники НЯОП?

Впоследствии эта тема практически постепенно сошла на нет, поскольку все девять государств, обладающие ядерным оружием и средствами его доставки, не поддержали такое предложение. Некоторые из них, как известно, до сих пор не подписали и не ратифицировали широко известные международные договорные акты, касающиеся ядерного оружия: Договор о нераспространении ядерного оружия, Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний и наиболее радикальный Договор о запрещении ядерного оружия.

По мнению противников принятия обязательства о неприменении ядерного оружия первыми, стало бы шагом назад в условиях, когда с принятием в июле 2017 года и вступлением в силу в январе 2021 года Договора о запрещении ядерного оружия был поставлен ребром вопрос о его полной ликвидации, а, мол, концепция НЯОП не затрагивает процесс его уничтожения.

Что касается Договора о запрещении ядерного оружия, то хотя он содержит формулировки о полном запрете этого вида оружия массового уничтожения, тем не менее, несмотря на его вступление в силу, всё же не даёт гарантий запрета ядерного оружия и его ликвидации никаким ядерным государством.

Здесь следует напомнить два весьма существенных обстоятельства: во-первых, никто из девяти ядерных государств в мире никак не поддержал этот договорный акт; и, во-вторых, ни одно из девяти ядерных государств до сих пор не сделало ни малейшего намёка на то, что оно готово навсегда ликвидировать свой ядерный арсенал.

Гарантией неприменения ядерного оружия может быть лишь полное разоружение, настойчиво повторяют противники НЯОП. Против этой инициативы активно выступают и сторонники полного запрещения войн и вооружённых конфликтов на планете, а вот, дескать, идея неприменения ядерного оружия в первом ударе будет мешать реализации их инициативы.

Всплыл и такой аргумент: обязательство о НЯОП станет неэффективным и не имеющим обязательной силы обещанием, которое не выходит за рамки декларации о намерениях. Возник и вопрос: а кто будет проверять эту договорённость - только её соавторы или неядерные государства? И в чём будет заключаться механизм такой проверки?

А каковы аргументы сторонников этой инициативы?

С другой стороны, нельзя не замечать, что в последние годы идея принятия всеми ядерными государствами обязательства о НЯОП стала постепенно возникать и обсуждаться на международных общественных и академических дискуссионных площадках в позитивном ключе. Почему?

Многие сторонники неприменения ядерного оружия в первом ударе утверждают, что универсальное обязательство о НЯОП упрощает процесс выработки сложных решений в сфере управления ядерным оружием и для принятия скоротечных директив по его применению на самом высшем военно-политическом уровне.  

С другой стороны, сторонники подобной формулы стали проявлять заметное беспокойство по поводу реального применения ядерных средств в региональных вооружённых конфликтах и даже в глобальном масштабе именно в первом ударе; расширения оснований его применения в ядерной доктрине Соединённых Штатов (с шести оснований при президенте Бараке Обаме до 14 оснований в период президентства Дональда Трампа); возможности использования Пентагоном ядерных боезарядов малой мощности, то есть от 5 килотонн и ниже; наращивания количества ядерных боезарядов после их некоторого сокращения, на что пошла Великобритания; появления в воздушном пространстве Европы практически на постоянной основе американских тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков, однозначно сертифицированных под доставку ядерных боезарядов ракетами и корректируемыми авиабомбами. А под их размещение и дозаправку свои военные аэродромы предоставили 19 из тридцати государств-членов альянса «трансатлантической солидарности».

В ядерной доктрине Соединённых Штатов при Бараке Обаме было 6 оснований для применения ядерного оружия, в аналогичной стратегии Дональда Трампа их стало уже 14.

Общественные круги и эксперты в сфере контроля над вооружениями также забили тревогу по поводу одностороннего выхода Соединённых Штатов из Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности и их готовности создать принципиально новые ракеты средней дальности в ядерном снаряжении, а затем развернуть их в Европе и в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе.

По мнению разработчиков сайта www.nofirstuse.global, «Принятие политики неприменения ядерного оружия первыми и прекращение военных приготовлений с целью его использования в значительной степени уменьшило бы риски возникновения ядерной катастрофы».

Одним словом, ситуация в ракетно-ядерной сфере в настоящее время и, скорее всего, в ближайшей перспективе, остаётся глубоко тревожной.

Вполне очевидно, что это потребует каких-то мер противодействия гонке ядерных вооружений. Тем более в условиях, когда контроль над вооружениями, в особенности над ядерными арсеналами, по вине Соединённых Штатов стал продвигаться «с большим скрипом». Они уже стали открыто нарушать продлённый Договор СНВ-3, превысив установленные им лимиты. Это происходит в условиях, когда при его продлении на пятилетний срок с них не взяли гарантий о его полном соблюдении. Не открывает ли это двери для его нарушения в будущем американской стороной?

Что же предлагается сделать с ядерным оружием сейчас?

В конце мая этого года миротворческие организации из пяти стран мира (Вьетнам, Иран, Испания, Россия и США) совместно выступили с Открытым воззванием к президентам России и США, чтобы они на своём саммите в Женеве 16 июня приняли взаимное обязательство о неприменении ядерного оружия первыми, а затем призвали все остальные семь государств, располагающие ядерным оружием, последовать их примеру. То есть сделать такое обязательство глобальным и универсальным. Логично.

В своём обращении, которое было подготовлено и размещено в Интернете 29 мая этого года, эта группа заявила, что предстоящая встреча Джозефа Байдена и Владимира Путина в Женеве может помочь предотвратить гонку ядерных вооружений, которая в последние годы приобрела очень опасный и тревожный характер и которая может привести к исчезновению человечества и других живых существ, флоры и фауны. Настало время для того, написали эти сторонники обуздания гонки ядерных вооружений, чтобы Россия и США действовали сообща и смело выработали двустороннее политически и юридически обязывающее соглашение о неприменении ядерного оружия первыми против их государств и их граждан.

Антиядерная «пятёрка» общественности отметила, что контроль над ядерными вооружениями не является простым и быстрым решением; скорее всего, он потребует очень серьёзных многогранных и всеобъемлющих мер, которые должны поэтапно приниматься всеми ядерными государствами.

Участники инициативы выразили убеждение, что две великие ядерные державы - Российская Федерация и Соединённые Штаты - могут изначально выработать двустороннее политически и юридически обязывающее соглашение о взаимном неприменении ядерного оружия первыми, а также возглавить подлинный контроль над вооружениями во всём мире. Столь глубоко обоснованная и практическая договорённость, первоначально достигнутая РФ и США, могла бы вдохновить все другие государства, обладающие ядерным оружием, взять на себя аналогичное обязательство.    

По мнению соавторов обращения, такая смелая и практическая инициатива двух великих ядерных держав помогла бы мировому сообществу «значительно укрепить стратегическую стабильность на всей планете и предотвратить возможность усиления гонки вооружений в других сферах, таких как противоракетная оборона и гиперзвуковое оружие».

Параллельно с названной группой НКО, но независимо от неё, представители общественных структур из Австралии и ряда стран Европы и США в июне этого года предложили президентам Джозефу Байдену и Владимиру Путину принять на женевском саммите 16 июня аналогичное обязательство о НЯОП.

Действительно: а что, если предложить Джозефу Байдену на его июньской инициативной встрече с российским лидером договориться по этому вопросу? Который, на мой взгляд, имеет больше плюсов, чем минусов.

Как вариант: можно было бы напомнить одно из ключевых положений «Основ государственной политики Российской Федерации в области ядерного сдерживания» 2020 года, что общенациональная стратегия в этой области носит «оборонительный характер».

По крайней мере, подобные акции значительно повысили бы авторитет России в мире. Время назрело. 

Автор: В.П. Козин. Источник: Еженедельник "Звезда"

 

Встреча, сигнализирующая об опасных тенденциях в НАТО

15–16 июня в Брюсселе состоялось заседание министров обороны стран-членов НАТО, ставшее традиционным перед проведением саммитов альянса. Очередной из них запланирован на конец текущего месяца в испанской столице. Каковы основные итоги брюссельской встречи и можно ли по ним спрогнозировать ключевые решения, которые будут приняты на саммите в Мадриде, который будет проведен в конце июня?

Проведенное мероприятие подтвердило главную направленность трансатлантического альянса: он был и остается  агрессивным военным союзом, имеющим стабильные глобальные интересы наступательного характера и ориентированным на осуществление вооруженного вмешательства во внутренние дела других государств. Все это подрывает стратегическую стабильность в мире,  инициирует повышение военных расходов у всех входящих в НАТО стран, а также приводит к наращиванию избыточных вооружений наступательного характера на многих региональных направлениях. 

Главный итог

Главным военно-политическим итогом проведенной брюссельской встречи стала окончательное подтверждение в принципиальном плане списка заключительных документов и основополагающих решений встречи в верхах НАТО в Мадриде.

В частности, министры обороны 30 государств, входящих в настоящее время в этот военный блок, подтвердили его готовность повысить военные расходы стран-участниц, выделить больше военных сил и средств в распоряжение союза «трансатлантической солидарности», усилив и без того его значительное комбинированное военное присутствие на  европейском континенте и, в частности,  в его восточной части.

Министры договорились усилить силы сдерживания альянса, в которые, начиная с мая 2012 года, то есть с чикагского саммита НАТО, входят ракетно-ядерные, противоракетные и обычные виды вооружений, сведенные в единый механизм.  По словам генерального секретаря НАТО Йенса Столтенберга, усиление сил сдерживания означает значительное усиление их боевых потенциалов, расширения территории развертывания и повышение степени боеготовности. При этом особое внимание будет уделено их развертыванию в районах передового базирования – имеется в виду относительно России и Беларуси. Произойдет наращивание боевых потенциалов этого военного блока в четырех сферах – на суше и море, а также в воздушной среде и киберпространстве. Будут развернуты военные базы «предварительного складирования» и дополнительные склады вооружений в Европе, которых и без того там немало.

Была выражена признательность ФРГ за готовность усилить свое участие в деятельности боевой группы альянса в Литве, которой руководит германская сторона. Сообщено, что Франция возглавит аналогичную боевую группу НАТО в Румынии.

"Модель новых сил"

Генеральный секретарь упомянул о целесообразности создания «модели новых сил» НАТО, в которые должны войти больше сил и средств повышенной боеготовности, а также «специфические силы, заранее предоставленные для обеспечения обороны специфических союзников». Такие силы будут находиться на своей национальной территории в режиме «ожидания», а затем переброшены в другую страну при возникновении чрезвычайной ситуации.  Такой заход никаких ассоциаций с Украиной не вызывает?

Похоже, что вызывает. Причем, самые прямые ассоциации и параллели.

Какие-то подробности этой «модели» и состав названных «специфических сил» на проведенном 15-16 июня мероприятии раскрыты не были. Вполне возможно, что на мадридском саммите некие детали озвученного замысла все-же будут изложены. В любом случае, к таким новациям следует присмотреться с особым вниманием и реагировать на них адекватно.

Примечательно, что формулировки по проблематике контроля над вооружениями, процесс которого буквально застыл на месте по инициативе США и НАТО в целом, отсутствовали.

О потенциальных гарантиях безопасности на европейском континенте также ничего не было сказано.

Украинский сюжет

Ситуация на Украине была рассмотрена не с точки зрения поиска путей ее взаимоприемлемого политического урегулирования, а с позиции дальнейшего закрепления геополитических интересов Североатлантического союза в этой части Европы, а также с ориентацией на продолжение третьей по счету агрессии преступного киевского режима против граждан ДНР и ЛНР. Но руками украинских вооруженных сил и националистических вооруженных формирований. То есть, путем, как это звучит на английском: «proxy war», что в данном контексте имеет один вариант перевода – «война чужими руками». Но не как: «война по доверенности» или «прокси-война».

Видно, что министры обороны НАТО не приняли во внимание твердое убеждение граждан Донбасса, не желающих жить в составе ультра-националистического и несостоятельного государства, которое добровольно и под давлением своих патронов извне по существу утратило государственную самостоятельность, независимость и суверенитет, а также основательно разрушило свою экономику и радикально подорвало уровень жизни своего населения.

В рамках мероприятия в Брюсселе был заслушан доклад украинского министра обороны, который требовал дополнительных вооружений.  Ответственного за третью агрессию против Донбасса – президента Зеленского – будут рады видеть в Мадриде. Об этом было объявлено.

На полях министерской встречи в Брюсселе состоялось заседание руководимой Соединенными Штатами «Контактной группы по оказанию помощи Украине», которая рекомендовала расширить поставки вооружений и военной техники этому государству-агрессору. В состоявшейся дискуссии приняли участие около 40 государств – как члены НАТО, так и «государства-партнеры». Они приветствовали выделение Киеву на военные цели дополнительно еще одного миллиарда долларов, недавно предоставленных Вашингтоном, который является главным идейным вдохновителем и пособником украинской агрессии и проведения политик геноцида против жителей Донбасса.

Как заявил на пресс-конференции генеральный секретарь НАТО Йенс Столтенберг, в ответ на военную акцию России против Украины трансатлантический альянс, который уже имеет под своим непосредственным командованием свыше 40 тысяч человек в Европе в составе сил быстрого развертывания, увеличит количество своих боевых групп с четырех до восьми.  Уточнена «зона их ответственности» – она будет простираться от Балтийского до Черного морей. Значит, будет охватывать и Украину.

Руководитель альянса признал, что Североатлантический союз уже многие годы оказывал военную помощь Украине. Он сообщил, что участники июньской встречи в Брюсселе «Взяли обязательство продолжать предоставление военной техники, в которой особо нуждается Украина, включая тяжелые виды вооружений большой дальности». Он выразил надежду на то, что на мадридской встрече в верхах союзники по НАТО согласятся с предоставлением Киеву всеобъемлющего пакета помощи, которая позволит Украине в долгосрочном плане перейти от использования военной техники советского производства к современным видам военной техники альянса, а также «улучшить оперативную совместимость» в рамках трансатлантического союза. Йенс Столтенберг не скрывал, что системы вооружений, поставляемые натовскими странами киевскому режиму, будут иметь «смертоносный» характер.

С учетом изложенных двух факторов получается, что, не становясь полноправным участником этого военного блока с политико-правовой точки зрения в нынешней обстановке, Украина фактически приобретает статус его непосредственного военного участника. Это – неприемлемое развитие ситуации с точки зрения национальных интересов Российской Федерации. Оно приведет к дальнейшему фактическому расширению членского состава НАТО в восточном направлении с украинским участием под ширмой «партнера с особым статусом», который в свое время придумал бывший руководитель НАТО Яаап де Хооп Схеффер. Это однозначно создаст дополнительные военные угрозы нашей стране. Но, как известно, у нас такие угрозы без внимания не остаются.

На встрече в Брюсселе была поддержана заявка на вхождение Швеции и Финляндии в НАТО в качестве его полноправных членов, а их потенциальное вступление в альянс названо «историческим». Но отвечая на вопрос украинского журналиста, а не настало ли время принять Украину в ряды альянса, Йенс Столтенберг ушел от конкретного ответа. Хорошо, если бы в штаб-квартире альянса раз и навсегда поняли, что Москва не потерпит никакого участия Киева в этом военном блоке, причем, в любом качестве и  в любом камуфляже.

Что ждать от саммита НАТО в Мадриде?

Итоги заседания глав оборонных ведомств стран, входящих в НАТО, которое состоялось приблизительно за полмесяца до открытия саммита альянса в Мадриде, показывают, что он станет самым агрессивным в истории этого крупнейшего военного блока.

На нем будет принята его новая Стратегическая концепция, которая заменит предыдущую, принятую двенадцать лет назад, не отличавшуюся миролюбием.

В обновленной стратегии впервые в качестве потенциального противника альянса помимо России будет назван Китай. Будут также заложены основы более опасного этапа холодной войны, которая вопреки широко утвердившемуся во многих государствах мнению под военным напором коллективного Запада никогда не прекращалась. Слишком многие факторы свидетельствуют о том, что господствующие в НАТО опасные милитаристские тенденции, которые проявлялись в его прежних концептуально-стратегических установках и практических военных приготовлениях в ходе многих десятилетий и во всех районах мира, к сожалению, сохранятся.

В этих условиях звучащие сегодня, в том числе и в России, предложения о целесообразности начала в нынешней тревожной военно-политической обстановке каких-то официальных переговоров с Вашингтоном по проблематике укрепления стратегической стабильности,  ограничения или сокращения российских вооружений, создаваемых на основе передовых технологий, с точки зрения интересов безопасности Российской Федерации, а также аналогичных интересов ее союзников и друзей, представляются преждевременными и даже опасными.

Автор: В.П. Козин, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России

 

 

Герои поделились деталями, что случилось с американским БПЛА

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в эфире канала "Россия 24"

За героизм при выполнении задач в ходе специальной военной операции. Именно с такой формулировкой были вручены ордена Мужества майорам Сергею Попову и Василию Вавилову. Двум российским летчикам, чьи имена уже давно хотела узнать вся страна. Именно они были за штурвалами самолетов Су-27, которые не допустили американский беспилотник к российским границам в Черном море.

Эфир от 22 марта 2023.

 

Гиперзвук и гиперзвон

Ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “Специальный репортаж” на канале “Звезда”.

Почему, расходуя на оборону почти в 20 раз больше России, США отстали от нас в военных разработках на 10 лет?

«Центр-2019». Военные учения, которые стоят в ряду самых крупных в России. Что отрабатываем? И при чем здесь треть населения Земли? О чем еще 8 лет назад президент Обама предупреждал Америку? Почему военный бюджет США на 2020 год побил новый рекорд, а государственные отчисления на медицину и образование урезали? Гиперзвук и гиперзвон! Почему, расходуя на оборону почти в 20 раз больше России, США отстали от нас в военных разработках на 10 лет? Печатный станок Трампа - миф или реальность? На что тратят миллиарды подрядчики Пентагона? И кого США втянули в новую гонку вооружений?

Эфир от 17 сентября.

 

Глобальный перехват

США продолжают укреплять свой противоракетный потенциал

По сообщению управления по противоракетной обороне министерства обороны США, на прошлой неделе, 30 мая, американские вооружённые силы впервые за многие годы после начала испытаний ракет-перехватчиков осуществили успешный ударно-кинетический перехват мишени-имитатора межконтинентальной баллистической ракеты. Она была запущена с полигона имени Рональда Рейгана на атолле Кваджалейн (Маршалловы острова) и находилась на срединной траектории полёта, когда её поразила противоракета наземного базирования, стартовавшая с авиабазы Ванденберг в Калифорнии.

Особенностей названного эксперимента, сокращенно обозначенного как FTG-15, две: во-первых, перехват состоялся на расстоянии в несколько тысяч километров от точки пуска противоракеты, во-вторых, он проведён с использованием стратегической системы ПРО. Это позволило директору УПРО вице-адмиралу Джеймсу Сирингу заявить, что Соединённые Штаты имеют «надёжные средства противоракетного сдерживания».

В этой связи следует отметить, что FTG-15 является новым витком в наращивании американских противоракетных вооружений. Ведь ранее Пентагон утверждал, что проводимые им противоракетные стрельбы преследуют цель отразить потенциальное ракетное нападение на США, их союзников и друзей только с использованием ракет меньшей, средней и «промежуточной» дальности. Испытание, осуществлённое 30 мая, отчётливо продемонстрировало стремление американского военно-политического руководства перехватывать баллистические ракеты большой дальности на значительном удалении от американского континента.

Совершенно очевидно, что, выйдя из Договора по ПРО 1972 года и не имея никаких политических и юридических ограничений, США вот уже шестнадцать лет продолжают активно совершенствовать свой противоракетный потенциал. Были проведены испытания с использованием нескольких ракет-перехватчиков для уничтожения группы летящих баллистических и крылатых ракет. Создаются противоракеты, оснащённые разделяющимися головными частями индивидуального наведения, с целью уничтожения нескольких целей одновременно. Повышается мощность двигателей ракет-перехватчиков, модифицируется система самонаведения. Ведётся работа над улучшением программного обеспечения по распознаванию реальных и ложных боевых частей баллистических ракет.

Оборонно-промышленный комплекс США продолжает производить ракеты-перехватчики различного назначения – пока двух видов базирования (наземного и морского). Но возобновились испытания лазерного оружия воздушного базирования, которое будет использоваться в интересах ПРО США (ранее эта программа была приостановлена). Появились проекты о размещении ракет-перехватчиков на больших беспилотных летательных аппаратах, а также планы об использовании беспилотных шаттлов для вывода ударно-боевых средств в космос с целью перехвата баллистических ракет на апогейной высоте.

К концу 2017 года на континентальной части США должны быть развёрнуты все 44 запланированные противоракеты наземного базирования – на Аляске (Форт-Грили) и в Калифорнии (авиабаза Ванденберг). К этому же времени на американской территории появится новый, третий наземный позиционный район стратегической системы ПРО. Усилится и морская противоракетная составляющая. Американские ВМС уже располагают 35 боевыми кораблями, имеющими боевую информационно-управляющую систему «Иджис». К 2040-м годам их количество может достигнуть 84 и даже 96 единиц.

Военные ассигнования Пентагона на разработку новых информационно-разведывательных, ударно-боевых и командно-управленческих структур глобальной системы ПРО ни при президенте Обаме, ни при президенте Трампе не подвергались и до сих пор не подвергаются бюджетным сокращениям, в том числе и в планируемом военном бюджете на 2018 год.

Пентагон активно развивает взаимодействие в сфере ПРО со странами НАТО, Ближнего Востока, зоны Персидского залива и в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе. В прошлом году США ввели в действие оперативный комплекс ПРО в Румынии, в конце 2018 года завершат строительство аналогичного объекта в Польше. На боевое дежурство в этом году переведён комплекс ПРО ТВД США THAAD в Южной Корее. Размещаемые там ракеты-перехватчики будут находиться под полным контролем Вашингтона.

Приходится также учитывать наличие в непосредственной близости от России комбинированного силового механизма в виде средств «передового базирования» США и объединённых сил НАТО, который включает в себя оперативно сопряжённые ракетно-ядерные и обычные вооружения, усиленные с мая 2012 года противоракетным потенциалом.

Разумеется, в складывающейся ситуации ответом не может не стать создание новых и более эффективных систем преодоления систем ПРО, что позволит надёжно защитить территорию, население и вооружённые силы как РФ, так и наших союзников и друзей. Это вполне логичный и адекватный путь минимизирования негативных последствий развёртывания «противоракетного щита» США и НАТО.

Автор: Владимир Козин, профессор Академии военных наук, Источник: “Красная звезда”

  • XXI век
  • Ракетные войска стратегического назначения
  • Россия
  • США
  • НАТО

Грозит ли Балтике «Карибский кризис»?

30 марта этого года исполнилась пятнадцатая годовщина начала проведения крайне опасной с точки зрения интересов национальной безопасности России операции ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» (в документах альянса: «Baltic Air Policing»).

Именно с этого дня в небе трех балтийских государств – Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии, которые вступили в Североатлантический союз в качестве его полноправных членов за день до этого в результате «пятой волны»  расширения альянса, на ротационной основе появились его первые боевые самолеты средней дальности. Половина входящих в него государств поэтапно предоставила: истребители и истребители-бомбардировщики различных типов, самолеты-заправщики и самолеты-разведчики. Руководство этой операцией осуществляется Центром совместных операций ВВС НАТО,  расположенном в Уедеме (ФРГ).

Операция ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» представляет угрозу интересам безопасности Российской Федерации по следующим соображениям.

Она осуществляется круглосуточно и круглогодично в самой непосредственной близости от российских рубежей. Ее «зона ответственности» охватывает не только небо над названными тремя государствами Балтии, но и воздушное пространство, которое простирается над частью акватории Балтийского моря, прилегающей к территории Калининградской и Ленинградской областей.

В ней участвуют боевые самолеты ВВС Бельгии, Великобритании, Венгрии, Дании, Испании, Норвегии, Нидерландов, Польши, Португалии, Румынии, США, Турции, Франции и ФРГ.

Как видно из этого списка стран-участниц НАТО, в операции принимают участие самолеты «двойного назначения» всех трех ядерных держав Запада: Великобритании, США и Франции. Такие самолеты способны нести не только обычные, но и ядерные авиабомбы. Из-за этого потенциального ядерного компонента такую операцию вполне можно расценить как «Карибский кризис № 3» или «Балтийский ядерный кризис», если учесть реально созданный Соединенными Штатами «Карибский кризис № 1» в октябре 1962 года, а также условно названный «Карибский кризис № 2», который был инициирован участниками Североатлантического союза в декабре 1979 года, когда тот дал «добро» на развертывание в ряде государств Европы американских ядерных «Першингов» и «Томагавков».

Боевые самолеты названных государств альянса «трансатлантической солидарности» активно используют не только воздушное пространство Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии, но и их военно-воздушные базы, расположенные близ латвийского Лиелварде, литовского Зокняй и эстонского населенного пункта Эмари, как военные аэродромы постоянного базирования. Все эти авиабазы после вхождения в альянс трех государств Балтии прошли основательную модернизацию, когда они приобрели многофункциональный характер. Настолько многофункциональный, что они могут принимать все три типа тяжелых стратегических бомбардировщиков, имеющихся на вооружении Соединенных Штатов. А именно бомбардировщики стратегического назначения «В-1В», «В-52Н» и «В-2А». Все они, получившие «постоянную прописку» на военных базах в Великобритании, уже несколько лет назад стали совершать с них перелеты и посадку на авиабазе в Эмари.

Начиная с 2014 года, Соединенные Штаты стали развертывать свои тяжелые стратегические бомбардировщики на европейском континенте по крайней мере один раз в год. С тех пор все три типа американских бомбардировщиков стратегического назначения, названные выше, стали размещаться именно на британской авиабазе «Фэйрфорд», которая является американским резервным пунктом для действий бомбардировочной авиации стратегического назначения по всей Европе.

О том, что НАТО продолжает усиливать группировку и расширять боевые задачи операции «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», говорят следующие факты.

14 июня 2016 года тогдашний заместитель генерального секретаря НАТО американец Александр Вершбоу встретился с министрами обороны Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии, чтобы подписать новое соглашение о механизмах организации использования воздушного пространства в поддержку миссии ВВС НАТО по патрулированию воздушного пространства и другой деятельности в воздушном пространстве в регионе Балтийского моря. Во время церемонии подписания Александр Вершбоу подчеркнул, что данное соглашение между альянсом и тремя государствами Балтии будет способствовать «расширению возможностей для подготовки к действиям в воздушном пространстве Балтийского региона». Возникает вопрос: для подготовки к каким «действиям»?

В соответствии с новой стратегией объединенных ВВС трансатлантического альянса («NATO’s Joint Air Power Strategy»), одобренной  26 июня 2018 года, военно-воздушные силы входящих в него государств должны иметь возможность действовать «в любой местности и в любых условиях», в том числе в сильно защищенном воздушном пространстве и в зонах интенсивного воздушного движения. Балтийский регион подпадает под такую трактовку воздушной активности, предложенную штаб-квартирой блока. Подтвердив готовность продолжения текущих военно-воздушных операций в различных регионах мира, названный документ нацелил государства Североатлантического союза на продолжение разработки доктрин ВВС и создания новых сил и средств в этой сфере.

Как было объявлено на саммите НАТО, состоявшемся в июле 2018 года в Брюсселе, в рамках блока была согласована единая стратегия по объединенному военно-воздушному потенциалу, которая станет ключевым фактором для миссий ВВС альянса по патрулированию воздушного пространства в мирное время. Она касается и операции «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование».

В марте 2019 года информационный бюллетень пресс-службы НАТО известил, что американские Стратегические ядерные силы направили в Великобританию сразу шесть тяжелых стратегических бомбардировщиков «B-52Н» дальнего радиуса действия «для проведения серии учебных мероприятий над Европой». 14 марта эти самолеты и более 450 военнослужащих военно-воздушных сил США прибыли на базу «Фэйрфорд» с базы ВВС «Барксдейл», расположенной в американском штате  Луизиана.

Один из российских экспертов, познакомившись с маршрутом их движения над воздушным пространством Балтийского моря в сторону авиабазы в Эмари, предположил, что они, мол, проводят облеты маршрут подводной прокладки газопровода «Северный поток-2», часть которого с российского побережья в Ленинградской области проходит по дну этой морской акватории в сторону Германии. Эксперт стал утверждать, что такие полеты американской стратегической авиации преследуют цель потенциального уничтожения этого газопровода.

Трудно предположить, что именно такая задача ставится перед американскими Стратегическими ядерными силами в водах Балтики. Но то, что названные носители американского ракетно-ядерного оружия воздушного базирования осваивают для себя доселе незнакомый «театр военных действий», то это не вызывает никаких сомнений. На это, в частности, указывают и количество тяжелых стратегических бомбардировщиков США, задействованных в полетах над Балтийским морем, и их прибытие на военный аэродром в Эмари, а также большая периодичность их полетов в той части европейского континента.

Квалифицировав развертывание боевых самолетов НАТО в этой зоне «плановым», официальный представитель НАТО Оана Лунгеску признала, что «оно свидетельствует о том, что ядерный зонтик США защищает Европу и демонстрирует уникальный потенциал, который США могут перебросить в Европу в кризисной ситуации». Так все же «ядерный зонтик», а не рутинное «патрулирование»! Красноречивое признание. Вполне очевидно, что Вашингтон имеет прямые ядерные интересы в этой части Европы.

Хотя в официальных документах Североатлантического союза указывается, что входящие в него государства круглосуточно защищают воздушное пространство трех стран Балтии на том основании, что они не имеют достаточного количества боевых самолетов, которые могли бы взять на себя обозначенную задачу, особенности проведения названной коллективной операции ВВС НАТО в небе Балтики столь длительный срок, да еще с отработкой специфических ядерных тактических и стратегических задач свидетельствует о том, она преследует наступательные боевые цели широкого спектра, которые подрывают европейскую безопасность.

Представляется, что именно по названным выше многим причинам российской стороне необходимо постоянно ставить перед США и остальными государствами Североатлантического союза вопрос о полном прекращении патрулирования воздушного пространства стран Балтии и зоны Балтийского моря боевыми самолетами стран НАТО, в том числе американскими самолетами тяжелой стратегической авиации.

Постановка подобного вопроса должна быть последовательно-активной, а также служить ответом на настойчивые предложения американских и натовских контрагентов, чтобы Российская Федерация сократила или уничтожила часть своих вооружений в одностороннем порядке.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: ИА ИнфоРос

Грозит ли человечеству ядерный апокалипсис?

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО Владимир Козин в  программе “Скрытые угрозы”  на телеканале “Звезда”.

Грозит ли человечеству атомный апокалипсис? Как спастись в случае ядерной зимы? Кто скупает подземные бункеры-апартаменты стоимостью в один миллиард долларов? И почему, несмотря на цену, спрос на подземные убежища в Европе и в США только растет?

Эфир от  10 февраля 2020 г.

Грызение совести

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "Специальный репортаж" на телеканале  "Звезда"

Какие рычаги влияния есть у Москвы для решения проблемы российского транзита в Калининград? Ждать ли новых провокаций от Вашингтона, Лондона и Брюсселя?

В последние месяцы на российско-литовской границе в Калининградской области сложилась чрезвычайно напряженная транспортная ситуация. На погранпереходах собирались очереди из нескольких сотен фур.

Видимо пробок на границе Литве показалось мало, и на днях Вильнюс заявил о прекращении железнодорожного транзита в Калининградскую область товаров, попавших под санкции Евросоюза. А это почти половина грузов, доставляемых в российский эксклав.

Эксперты не исключают, что блокада наземных грузоперевозок – это только первый шаг Вильнюса, и дело дойдет до полной транспортной блокады российского эксклава. Литва – член НАТО, а Североатлантический Альянс спит и видит, как Балтийское море превращается во «внутреннее море» блока. Какие рычаги влияния есть у Москвы для решения проблемы российского эксклава? Ждать ли новых провокаций от Вашингтона, Лондона и Брюсселя? И зачем Вильнюс запрашивает дополнительную военную поддержку НАТО?

Эфир от 28 июня 2022г.

Источник: ТРК “Звезда”

 

Гуманитарная помощь Италии. Слова благодарности и одновременно нагнетаемая истерия

В западных СМИ продолжается антироссийская кампания вокруг деятельности группы российских военных врачей в Бергамо, оказывающих помощь итальянцам в борьбе с распространением в стране пандемии коронавируса COVID-19.

12 апреля этого года претендующая на звание ведущей в Италии газета «Репубблика» опубликовала статью о том, что российские граждане в Италии открыто покупают у итальянских блоггеров «положительные» отзывы о работе российской медицинской миссии в Бергамо.

Очередная публикация является ничем иным как следствие кампании по навязыванию европейцам истерии, связанной с якобы наличием «угрозы» из-за присутствия российских военных в Италии. Началом послужила скандальная статья итальянского журналиста Якопо Якобони одной из крупнейших в стране газеты «Ла Стампа», входящей в одну издательскую группу с «Репуббликой». В своей публикации итальянский репортер назвал помощь российских медицинских специалистов «бесполезной», ссылаясь на «некие мнения» анонимных «высокопоставленных источников», несмотря на то, что впоследствии около четырех десятков других итальянских медиа изданий высоко оценили работу российской миссии. Странно, что это горе-журналист не знает, что российские специалисты уже проделали на севере Италии большую работу, которую никак нельзя назвать безопасной для их жизней.

Среди прочего, они продезинфицировали многие дома престарелых, в чем Италия нуждалась в первую очередь. Российские военные специалисты совместно с итальянскими коллегами провели дезинфекцию в домах для пожилых людей в трех населенных пунктах Ломбардии – городах Дальмине, Озио-Сотто, Аццано-Сан-Паоло.

А в общей сложности российскими военными врачами эпидемиологами и специалистами Вооруженных Сил России совместно с итальянскими военными проведена полная дезинфекция пансионатов для пожилых людей в 52 населенных пунктах Ломбардии. Обработано 56 зданий и сооружений, более 350 тыс. квадратных метров внутренних помещений и свыше 40 тыс. квадратных метров дорог с твёрдым покрытием.

Странно, что, в ответном заявлении официального представителя Минобороны России генерала Игоря Конашенкова западные СМИ усмотрели «личную угрозу» Якобони. За «жертвенного итальянца» поспешили заступиться заместитель председателя Еврокомиссии Вера Юрова и официальный представитель НАТО Оана Лунгеску. В своих твиттер-аккаунтах они выразили итальянцу «солидарность», назвав «угрозы со стороны России в адрес европейских СМИ неприемлемыми». Заместитель председателя палаты депутатов Италии Мара Карфанья («по совместительству» диссидент в партии Берлускони «Вперед Италия») потребовала вмешательства правительства Италии и вызова посла России в МИД «для разъяснений, что иностранные генералы не имеют права угрожать итальянским массмедиа». К требованиям политика присоединился редакционный совет «Ла Стампа», выступивший с публичным заявлением, что «запугиванием Россия контролирует печать и не только», и потребовавший от правительства Италии «добиться (от российской стороны) официальных разъяснений и извинений». В подобном ключе высказываются и другие политики из входящего в парламентское большинство движения «Живая Италия» и поддерживающие нынешнюю правящую коалицию члены партии «Свободные и равные».

Нагнетаемая антироссийская истерия вокруг мифической «угрозы» со стороны официального представителя Минобороны спровоцировала уже реальную угрозу в адрес сотрудников российского дипломатического представительства в Риме от действующей в Италии террористической организации «Вооруженная фаланга» (Falange Armata), которая в 90-х годах организовала на территории Апеннин серию взрывов и убийств.

Угрозы российским дипломатам со стороны террористов «взорвать» российские Посольство и Консульство, «если независимость Италии будет подвергнута опасности со стороны российской сферы влияния» начали поступать уже через три дня после первой публикации (25 марта) Якобони, в которой российские военные, а это около ста человек, представлялись чуть ли не захватчиками. На фоне подобных «пожеланий» итальянских экстремистов, угрозы россиянам от которых являются вполне реальными, извращенная интерпретация пословицы, процитированной официальным представителем Минобороны России, выглядит просто лицемерно.

Полиция Рима возбудила уголовное дело по факту угроз в адрес российских дипломатов от местной террористической организации «Вооруженная фаланга». Угрозы «взорвать Посольство» стали поступать именно после серии фэйков «Ла Стампа», в которых российские врачи в Бергамо фактически представлены «захватчиками Италии».

Вполне очевидно, что навязывание европейцам раздутых «опасностей от присутствия российских врачей» в Италии в столь сложной социальной и эпидемиологической обстановке провоцирует наиболее радикальные слои итальянского общества к проявлениям экстремизма. При этом, на первый взгляд, «обычный фэйк», вброшенный безответственным и, видимо, слабо подготовленным «журналистом», очевидно способен привести к серьезным последствиям – угрозе жизни и безопасности российских дипломатов в Италии. Поэтому наряду с безусловным уважением принципов свободы слова и мнения, важно в полной мере осознавать и ответственность за публикуемые материалы, дабы не провоцировать тех, кто может нести реальную, а не мнимую, угрозу жизни и безопасности конкретных людей, работающих на благо российско-итальянского взаимодействия в сугубо гуманитарной сфере.

Как известно, договоренность об оказании гуманитарной помощи Италии, на которую вирусная зараза обрушилась с особой силой, была достигнута между президентом России Владимиром Путиным и премьером Италии Джузеппе Конте, который попросил у Москвы такую помощь. Ее масштабы и формы были обсуждены и согласованы в полном объеме с итальянскими официальными лицами.

Россия предоставила итальянцам средства защиты, мобильные комплексы на базе автомобилей "КАМАЗ" для аэрозольной дезинфекции транспорта и территории, медицинское и иное оборудование и направила бригаду российских специалистов для работы на месте. Российская сторона пошла на это, хотя, как хорошо известно, у нее самой имеются еще нерешенные проблемы, связанные с противодействием этой пандемии. При этом Москва убеждена, что такие опасные болезни как COVID-19 можно победить только общими и хорошо скоординированными усилиями всех пострадавших от нее государств, а не в одиночку.

Мэр итальянского города Дольмине Франческо Бромани поблагодарил российских специалистов за помощь, оказываемую в борьбе с коронавирусной инфекцией. «Ситуация в городе сложилась достаточно серьёзная, есть больные, есть умершие, и ваш приезд для нас очень значимый. Мы благодарны вам. Мы вас очень ждали. Спасибо за помощь итальянскому народу в борьбе с коронавирусной инфекцией!», – отметил градоначальник, хорошо знакомый с обстановкой в своем регионе.

Популярный итальянский эстрадный певец и актер Альбано Карризи, известный под псевдонимом Аль Бано, поблагодарил российских специалистов за вклад в борьбу с короновирусной инфекцией, сообщает Минобороны России. Телемост с золотым голосом Италии 80-х состоялся в актовом зале гостиницы "Сан-Марко" города Бергамо, где размещены российские военнослужащие, помогающие в борьбе с распространением COVID-19. "Спасибо вам большое за все то, что вы уже сделали и делаете для Италии. Этот жест мы никогда не забудем. И всегда будем помнить, что вы сделали для итальянского народа. Спасибо вам", – приводятся в сообщении слова благодарности певца.

Премьер Италии Джузеппе Конте в негативном ключе и с горечью в голосе отреагировал на заявление о, якобы, корыстной помощи России итальянской стороне. Он публично заявил, что сам намек на это его оскорбляет. Это – оскорбление для итальянского правительства и президента России Владимира Путина, который бы никогда не стал использовать сложную ситуацию в качестве рычага давления на страны, подчеркнул он.

Автор: Владимир Козин - ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ

ДОГОВОР СНВ-3: ЕГО ПРОДЛЕНИЕ НЕВОЗМОЖНО. ДОГОВОР СНВ-4: ЕГО РАЗРАБОТКА С США НЕЦЕЛЕСООБРАЗНА

Выступление ведущего эксперта Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России В.П Козина на Московской международной конференции по нераспространению 21 октября 2017 года                                                                         

Российская Федерация и США продолжают выполнять положения Договора о сокращении стратегических наступательных вооружений (Договора СНВ-3 или в английском сокращении New START), считая его важной практической договоренностью в сфере контроля над ядерными вооружениями стратегического назначения. Представляется, что к 5 февраля 2018 года обе стороны выйдут на определенные договором максимальные рубежи по стратегическим наступательным ядерным вооружениям, оставив в своих арсеналах по 1550 ядерных боезарядов и по 800 оперативно развернутых и оперативно неразвернутых носителей СНВ.

В Российской Федерации обратили внимание на появившиеся в американских СМИ и экспертном сообществе предложения о продлении этого договора еще на пять лет после завершения его предельного срока действия, который должен произойти в 2021 году, то есть сделать договор максимально функционирующим до 2026 года.

Некоторые российские и зарубежные эксперты с энтузиазмом поддержали эту идею, полагая, что ее реализация приведет к выправлению российско-американских отношений и сдвинет с места процесс контроля над вооружениями между Россией и Соединенными Штатами, который зашел в глухой тупик. В нем уже скопилось шестнадцать нерешенных проблем различного военно-политического содержания и разной степени срочности разрешения: от проблем противоракетной обороны до предотвращения инцидентов подводных лодок, находящихся в подводном положении, и многих других вопросов.

Предложение о продлении Договора СНВ-3 на пять лет и подготовке нового Договора СНВ-4 могло бы получить практический импульс, если бы оно рассматривалось изолированно от других вопросов, оказывающих сильное влияние на региональную и глобальную стабильность. К нему можно было бы отнестись с повышенным вниманием, если бы между Москвой и Вашингтоном существовали отношения подлинного «стратегического партнерства», царило бы полное доверие и не существовали бы диаметрально противоположные подходы к урегулированию многих актуальных международных проблем.

К сожалению, между Россией и США ничего подобного не наблюдается уже на протяжении многих лет. Нынешние российско-американские отношения находятся в глубоком каньоне. Вашингтон развязал против России вторую фазу холодной войны, уже получившую наименование «холодная война 2.0.», которая в отличие от ее первой фазы (1945-2014 годы) приобрела качественно иное и более опасное измерение.

Москва, естественно, готова рассмотреть официальные предложения Вашингтона о продлении срока действия Договора СНВ-3, если они поступят от американской стороны не через СМИ или выступления представителей научно-исследовательских кругов, а по официальным каналам, поскольку практика рассмотрения такого вопроса предусмотрена статьей 14 этого договорного акта.

Вместе с тем, уже сейчас можно сказать, что c точки зрения интересов национальной безопасности Российской Федерации представляется стратегически опасным фиксировать еще раз названные пределы по носителям и боезарядам СНВ до 2026 года и идти по пути их дальнейшего сокращения в рамках какого-то нового договора СНВ-4 (The Newest START) по следующим девяти соображениям.

1. Если будет продолжаться неконтролируемое наращивание ракет-перехватчиков системы ПРО США, а также беспрепятственное расширение пространственной зоны их размещения по всему земному шару, в особенности тогда, когда в случае продления Договора СНВ-3 общее количество российских носителей и боезарядов СНВ будет оставаться неизменным с 2018 до 2026 года (1550 единиц), в то время как количество ракет-перехватчиков США, которые призваны перехватывать российские носители и боезаряды СНВ, будет бесконтрольно наращиваться. К 2020 году, то есть за шесть лет до нового срока действия Договора СНВ-3, соотношение между американскими ударно-боевыми средствами ПРО и российскими носителями СНВ составит 2:1, а по американским ракетам-перехватчикам системы ПРО и боезарядам СНВ России даже 3:1 (во всех случаях без учета ЗРК «Пэтриот»).

Это крайне опасные пропорции. Используя преимущество в ударно-боевых противоракетных средствах, Соединенные Штаты вполне могут нанести первый ядерный удар не только по Ирану и КНДР, но и по России и КНР, а затем гарантированно прикрыться от удара возмездия столь плотным «противоракетным щитом». Чем меньше потолок по ядерным СНВ России и чем больше количество ракет-перехватчиков системы ПРО США для их перехвата – тем больше соблазн у США нанести первый «упреждающий и превентивный» ядерный удар по российской территории.

2. Если будет сохранено американское тактическое ядерное оружия на территории четырех европейских государств и в азиатской части Турции, а также продолжаться модернизация такого вида оружия, которое может быть использовано для нанесения первого ядерного удара или в качестве дополнительного компонента к ядерным ударам, наносимым с помощью СНВ. Нельзя не учитывать, что американские ядерного вооружения, формально относимые как категории «тактических», могут одновременно выполнять как тактические, так и стратегические ядерные задачи в зависимости от средств их доставки – либо самолетами тактической, либо стратегической авиации.

3. Если Соединенные Штаты будут продолжать широко использовать тяжелые стратегические бомбардировщики в ходе военных учений или для «демонстрации силы» в Европе, Азии и Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе.

4. Если Вашингтон будет продолжать активно нарушать Договор о ликвидации РСМД 1987 года. Начиная с 2001 года, Пентагон уже 92 раза нарушил его при проверке эффективности системы ПРО США и их союзников путем использования баллистических ракет-мишеней меньшей, средней и промежуточной дальности, запрещенных этим договором. И если Пентагон действительно создаст новую ядерную крылатую ракету наземного базирования, на разработку которой в американском военном бюджете на 2018 год выделено 65 млн. долларов. И, наконец, если Соединенные Штаты  инициативно выйдут из названного договора с учетом названных обстоятельств.

5. Если будет продолжаться круглосуточная и круглогодичная операция ВВС  НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» (Baltic Air Policing) в небе трех государств Балтии, в которой задействованы самолеты «двойного назначения» трех ядерных держав Запада, способные нести как обычное, так и ядерное оружие.

6. Если США сохранят ядерную доктрину «безусловного наступательного ядерного сдерживания», которая предусматривает нанесение как массированного, так и ограниченного первого ядерного удара по России, КНР, КНДР и Ирану.

7. Если Вашингтон будет продолжать упорно отказываться договариваться по вопросу о предотвращении размещения оружия в космическом пространстве.

8. Если Соединенные Штаты и НАТО будут бесконтрольно наращивать силы общего назначения, включая тяжелые вооружения, и проводить масштабные военные учения наступательного характера в районах, прилегающих к территории России, ее союзников и друзей; если США и Североатлантический союз в целом не снизят свою военную активность в непосредственной близости от России, ее союзников и друзей, которая за последние годы возросла в пять раз, а также свою авиаразведывательную деятельность, которая увеличилась в десять раз.

9. Если будет и впредь генерироваться отсутствие между Россией и США полного доверия, которое было неоправданно и целенаправленно подорвано Вашингтоном; если будут сохраняться в основополагающих американских и натовских документах неадекватные формулировки о действиях России на международной арене, а также, если будет продолжаться необоснованно введенный Вашингтоном в отношении России жесткий санкционно-рестриктивный режим, который охватывает до 400 различных учреждений и предприятий и 200 индивидуальных лиц.

Странно, что отдельные российские «эксперты» не видят и не хотят видеть всех этих явлений, имеющих глубокие негативные последствия для региональной и глобальной стратегической стабильности в целом. Такие  «эксперты» зачастую используют заниженные данные о военном потенциале и военной деятельности Соединенных Штатов, а то и просто собирают аккуратно подброшенную им дезинформацию для последующего тиражирования, даже не удосуживаясь проверить ее.

Следует также учесть точку зрения Москвы, что после выполнения Договора СНВ-3 в феврале 2018 года Россия фактически полностью исчерпает свои возможности для продолжения переговоров с американской стороной по сокращению СНВ на двусторонней основе.

В этой связи необходимо подключение к соответствующему переговорному процессу всех государств, располагающих ядерными вооружениями. На первом этапе это должно коснуться, в первую очередь, Великобритании и Франции как основных ядерных союзников Соединенных Штатов, имеющих взаимные обязательства в сфере «безусловного наступательного ядерного сдерживания». При определении будущих ядерных балансов между Россией и тремя западными ядерными державами должен быть учтен совокупный ядерный арсенал Великобритании, США и Франции таким образом, чтобы он не превышал ядерный потенциал Российской Федерации.

Западные эксперты пытаются распространять слухи о том, что решение о продлении срока действия Договора СНВ-3 российской стороной уже принято. Но это не так. Подобного решения пока нет. Идет лишь процесс выработки позиции по этому вопросу. Об этом было официально заявлено 20 октября этого года российской стороной на пленарном заседании Международной конференции по нераспространению, состоявшейся в Москве.

Вполне естественно, чтобы вопрос о возможном продлении Договора СНВ-3 на пять лет и о подготовке нового Договора СНВ-4 был проанализирован всеми заинтересованными российскими министерствами и ведомствами с особой тщательностью и повышенной ответственностью – с подготовкой объективного, а не конъюнктурного прогноза всех военно-политических последствий принятия такого решения с точки зрения национальной безопасности Российской Федерации, ее союзников и друзей.

ДРСМД: Москва демонстрирует открытость

Военным атташе и журналистам представлена новая российская крылатая ракета

23 января на территории военно-патриотического парка «Патриот» Вооруженных Сил Российской Федерации, что недалеко от подмосковного города Кубинка, Министерство иностранных дел и Министерство обороны России провели необычный по содержанию совместный брифинг для военных атташе и журналистов зарубежных стран, аккредитованных в нашей стране.

В его рамках заместитель главы внешнеполитического ведомства России Сергей Рябков рассказал о широких дипломатических усилиях Москвы, направленных на урегулирование проблемы сохранения в незыблемом состоянии бессрочного Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности 1987 года (ДРСМД). Представитель Министерства обороны России – начальник Ракетных войск и артиллерии Вооружённых сил России генерал-лейтенант Михаил Матвеевский – изложил технические особенности российской ракеты 9М729 наземного базирования, наличие которой интерпретируется американской стороной как «несоблюдение» Москвой названного договорного акта, а также ракеты 9М728, которая послужила основой создания ракеты 9М729.

По словам Сергея Рябкова, ещё 15 лет назад Соединенные Штаты в одностороннем порядке свернули работу одной из контрольных комиссий ДРСМД в ответ на проявленную озабоченность России по поводу соблюдения американской стороной ряда условий этого договора. Тогда речь шла о разработке и производстве Вашингтоном первых образцов ударных беспилотных летательных аппаратов, которые полностью подпадают под содержащееся в ДРСМД определение крылатой ракеты наземного базирования средней дальности. Представитель МИД России также указал, что Москва имела и по-прежнему имеет все основания полагать, что под видом противоракетных испытаний либо одновременно с ними американская сторона отрабатывает технологический потенциал баллистических ракет наземного базирования средней и меньшей дальности, запрещённых договором 1987 года.

В частности, о том, что Вашингтон нарушал и по-прежнему нарушает ДРСМД, говорят пресс-релизы Управления по ПРО Министерства обороны США о проведенных испытаний обеих систем (противоракетных и ракетных), а также заявления начальников этой штатной структуры, с которыми они выступали и продолжают выступать в Конгрессе США. Начиная с 2001 года, то есть года, когда американские контрагенты объявили об одностороннем выходе из Договора об ограничении систем ПРО, Управление по ПРО Пентагона и ВМС США по состоянию на 24 января 2019 года провели в общей сложности 96 таких испытаний. Это также означает, что они нарушили ДРСМД такое же количество раз, поскольку в  названных пресс-релизах, среди прочего, как раз и указываются перехватываемые ракеты-мишени средней и меньшей дальности, запрещенные договоренностью 1987 года.

Проведенное 23 января в военно-патриотическом парке «Патриот» информационно-разъяснительное  мероприятие носило беспрецедентный по своей открытости характер, поскольку военное ведомство России не просто впервые продемонстрировало ракету 9М729 и ее предшественницу ракету 9М728, но и в духе доброй воли инициативно поделилось с некоторыми их тактико-техническими характеристиками, которые не обязано было раскрывать хотя  бы в силу того, что, во-первых, это не предусматривается самим договором 1987 года и, во-вторых, потому, что обе названные ракеты никак не подпадают под терминологические определения, зафиксированные в названном договорном акте.

Как показали события последних нескольких лет, именно ракета 9М729 стала объектом настойчивой и жесткой критики со стороны Вашингтона, который необоснованно считал и считает, что ее существование «нарушает» ДРСМД российской стороной.

Почему американские визави подвергают нападкам именно ракету 9М729?

В течение семи последних лет Вашингтон с помощью словесной эквилибристики и массированного информационного давления пытался «продать» свое дальнейшее участие в ДРСМД за простую, но несуразную формулу: «США будут продолжать выполнять это договорный акт, если Россия уничтожит свои наиболее перспективные виды вооружений». Иными словами, они хотели бы с помощью этого важного договора по контролю над вооружениями избавиться от наиболее эффективных систем вооружений России, которые никак не подпадают под его ограничения. Назывались в этом контексте и две российские МБР «Ярс» и Рубеж», и оперативно-тактическая ракета «Р-500».

Затем американская сторона отказалась от таких искусственных увязок из-за их несоответствия реальному положению дел. Тогда в Вашингтоне попробовали иную уловку, заявив, что снимут с России незаконно введенные торгово-экономические санкции в обмен на уничтожение перспективных российских вооружений. Потом попытались увязать с ДРСМД ликвидацию высокоточной гиперзвуковой системы «Авангард». Но эти оба трюка также не прошли. Поэтому выбор пал на ракету 9М729 – наиболее перспективную из ракет этого класса. Это был последний шанс надуть Россию и мировое сообщество  в целом.

И вновь не получилось заставить Россию уничтожить эту ракету за неэквивалентный товар для  обмена – соблюдение Вашингтоном ДРСМД. Но США и без увязок обязаны соблюдать все договоры по контролю над вооружениями, том числе и договор 1987 года, если они желают вести честную игру.

Вторая крупная причина «наездов» США на Россию в связи с ДРСМД заключается в том, чтобы обеспечить информационное прикрытие для своих уже утвержденных на Капитолийском холме планов создать новую мобильно-грунтовую крылатую ракету наземного базирования средней дальности в ядерном и неядерном снаряжении, а затем развернуть ее на европейском континенте. То есть с прицелом повторить «двойное решение» НАТО, одобренное в декабре 1979 года. А оно, как известно, привело к появлению в Европе ядерных американских баллистических и крылатых ракет в виде «Першингов» и «Томагавков».

Но когда Москва проявила заботу о своей национальной безопасности, американская сторона решила инициативно, окончательно и бесповоротно выйти из ДРСМД. Но в таком случае вся ответственность за взлом этой договоренности ложится на Вашингтон и непосредственно на администрацию Дональда Трампа. Ляжет она и на союзников США по НАТО, которые поддерживают их в политике разрушения архитектуры контроля над вооружениями.

Что же еще было продемонстрировано на брифинге 23 января с российской стороны?

Иностранным военным атташе и представителям СМИ были сообщены точные данные о дальности полета ракет 9М729 и 9М728, а также о принципах их транспортировки и заправки топливом. Представитель Министерства обороны России обратил особое внимание приглашенных на брифинг, что дальность ракет 9М729 и 9М728 не превышает минимального предела в 500 км, от которого рассчитывается дальность стрельбы ракет меньшей дальности, подпадающие под ограничительные положения ДРСМД. Как известно, договор использует в качестве критерия принадлежности баллистических и крылатых ракет к ракетам средней и меньшей дальности наземного базирования только один показатель: дальность их стрельбы, а не какие-то иные параметры, например, мощность боезаряда, точность поражения потенциальных целей и так далее.

В ходе презентации генерал-лейтенант Михаил Матвеевский рассказал, что 9М729 представляет собой модернизированный вариант ракеты 9М728, входящей в состав комплекса «Искандер-М». Было сообщено, что ракета 9М728 имеет максимальную дальность стрельбы 490 км, а ракета 9М729 – 480 км, причем, предельная практическая дальность стрельбы ракеты 9М729 была подтверждена в ходе командно-штабных учений «Запад-2017», проведенных в позапрошлом году.

В ракете 9М729 размещены боевое оснащение повышенной мощности и новый бортовой комплекс управления, обеспечивающий более высокую точность поражения цели, изменено количество боезарядов и установлена дополнительная аппаратура, что сделало ракету длиннее на 53 см по сравнению с ракетой 9М728. В дополнение к этому 9М729 получила новую пусковую установку, позволяющую размещать на ней по четыре ракеты, а не по две как в случае с пусковой установкой, предназначенной для загрузки и запуска ракеты 9М728. Но все эти изменения не имеют никакого отношения к ДРСМД. Надо повторить: главное здесь – дальность стрельбы ракет.

На брифинге было заявлено, что ракеты указанных вариантов поставляются в войска в специальных контейнерах. Ракеты снаряжаются боезарядами  и заправляются топливом только в заводских условиях, причем, масса загруженного топлива не может быть изменена в полевых условиях, что не позволяет превысить заявленную дальность полета ракет.

Военные атташе США, Великобритании, Франции и Германии, а также другие представители НАТО и Евросоюза, которым было направлено приглашение на брифинг 23 января, отказались от его посещения под смехотворным предлогом: там, мол, не будет обеспечена «транспарентность». Увы, была, да еще какая! По сути же они проигнорировали этот мероприятие из-за смятения и обиды, что вчистую проиграли собственную фальшивую игру под названием: «Кто первым выйдет из ДРСМД?»

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: ИнфоРос

ДРСМД: дезинформация без размышления

Вашингтон продолжает вводить своих союзников и все мировое сообщество в заблуждение относительно своих дальнейших шагов после развала им ДРСМД

18 августа этого года в 2.30 по тихоокеанскому времени Пентагон произвел летное испытание новой экспериментальной крылатой ракеты наземного базирования (КРНБ) класса «Томагавк», запустив ее с острова Святого Николая, относящегося к штату Калифорния. Испытание прошло успешно. Пролетев свыше 500 км, ракета поразила учебную цель. Названный эксперимент стал первым испытанием американской КРНБ на дальность, запрещенную ДРСМД, после его односторонней денонсации Вашингтоном.

Представитель пресс-службы Пентагона подполковник ВВС США Роберт Карвер сообщил, что эта ракета была четвертой модификацией КРНБ «Томагавк», запущенной с использованием наземной пусковой установки «Mk-41».

По утверждению Роберта Карвера, использованная при пуске КРНБ пусковая установка не является копией противоракетной системы «Иджис эшор», то есть системы ПРО «Иджис» наземного базирования, которая в настоящее время уже действует на территории Румынии, а также той, которая находится в стадии строительства в Польше. «Это чисто оборонительная система», – уверял представитель Пентагона. «Она не способна запускать «Томагавки». «Иджис эшор» не спроектирована так, чтобы производить пуски наступательных видов вооружений любого типа».

Ожидается, что до конца текущего года в Соединенных Штатах будет проведено еще несколько испытаний баллистических и крылатых ракет наземного базирования. Как заявил недавно новый шеф Пентагона Марк Эспер, после выхода США из ДРСМД они начнут «полномасштабную» разработку новых ракетных систем этого класса.

К сожалению, никто из указанных американских представителей не признал, что разработка новых баллистических и крылатых ракет средней дальности «двойного назначения», то есть в ядерном и неядерном снаряжении, была и остается главной причиной выхода США из этого договорного акта.

Линия Вашингтона на создание новых мобильно-грунтовых и стационарных ракет наземного базирования средней дальности с их последующим размещением в Европе и Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе прослеживалась уже много лет. Проверка эффективности таких ракет фактически началась одновременно с разработкой системы ПРО «передового базирования», то есть не находящейся на континентальной части США, а развернутой далеко за ее пределами –  поближе к территории потенциального противника. Новые учебные баллистические и крылатые ракеты средней и меньшей дальности шести типов стали активно использоваться Пентагоном при тестировании ракет-перехватчиков системы ПРО с октября 1999 года.

В июле 2017 года, то есть за два года до инициативного и фактического выхода США из ДРСМД, Палата представителей американского Конгресса проголосовала за выделение ассигнований на разработку новой КРНБ средней дальности, которая однозначно подпадала под ограничения этого договора.

С учетом двух обозначенных фактов становится ясным, что заявление упомянутого официального представителя Пентагона о том, что только после приостановки США своих обязательств по ДРСМД в феврале 2019 года их ключевое военное ведомство лишь «приступило к концептуальному проектированию систем крылатых ракет и баллистических ракет наземного базирования», нарочито вводит в заблуждение.

Утверждения американских военных, что пусковые установки системы ПРО США наземного базирования, функционирующей с мая 2016 года в Румынии, и аналогичные им, которые в следующем году появятся в Польше, якобы, не могут запускать КРНБ «Томагавк», является опасной дезинформацией.

Они действительно могут запускать «Томагавки», причем, без особых сложностей. Для этого не требуются никакие конструктивные изменения этих универсальных пусковых установок. Ракеты-перехватчики системы ПРО класса «Стэндарт-3», и КРНБ «Томагавк» имеют практически одинаковые измерения, а командные пункты этих двух комплексов располагают заранее предустановленным программным обеспечением, что позволяет США произвести запуск ракет оборонительного и наступательного характера. По этой причине ныне действующие и новые операционные комплексы США наземного базирования в Европе и в АТР являются и будут являться комбинированными структурами стратегического назначения, входящими в систему ударно-боевых средств «передового базирования» США и НАТО.

Касаясь вопроса программного обеспечения американских комплексов системы ПРО в Европе во время рабочего визита в августе в Хельсинки, президент России Владимир Путин обратил на этот элемент особое внимание, выразив сомнение в том, что американская сторона будет информировать даже своих европейских партнеров о том, какое программное обеспечение будет применено в этих системах. При этом следует иметь в виду, что операционные комплексы системы ПРО США в Румынии уже находятся, а вскоре и в Польше будут находиться под полным американским контролем.

Кроме того, Вашингтон так и не дал позитивного ответа на предложение Москвы о взаимном отказе «от развертывания первыми» ракет средней и меньшей дальности России и США в каких либо регионах мира. Это – информация к размышлению.

В этой же связи следует задать прямой вопрос Вашингтону: по какой причине на странице 33 именно новой Стратегии ПРО, утвержденной нынешней администрацией, США, вдруг появилось положение о том, что система активной противоракетной обороны США должна уничтожить ядерные ракеты потенциального противника не только вскоре после их запуска, но и «еще до их запуска»?

Не соответствует действительности разъяснения американских высокопоставленных представителей, что создаваемые в США баллистические и крылатые ракеты наземного базирования в основном средней дальности не будут оснащены ядерными боезарядами. Это также дезинформация. И весьма опасная.

Как и то, что Россия «нарушила» ДРСМД. Но США до сих пор не предъявили мировому сообществу никаких реальных доказательств таких нарушений. А недавно стали обвинять КНР в том, Пекин, дескать, является причиной выхода Вашингтона из этого договорного акта. Явно запутались. Но, тем не менее, продолжают нанизывать одну дезинформацию на другую.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: InfoRos

ДСНВ-4: Три предварительных условия Вашингтона. Реальны ли они?

Решение администрации президента США  Дональда Трампа о продлении с Россией договора по стратегическим наступательным вооружениям (ДСНВ-3) будет зависеть от выполнения Российской Федерацией и КНР трех предварительных условий Вашингтона. Такие условия назвал  довольно информированный комментатор газеты «Wall Street Journal»  Майкл Гордон, ссылаясь на неназванный источник из числа американских официальных представителей.

По информации автора материала, 45-ый президент, мол, может согласиться пролонгировать этот договор на какой-то срок, если: 1) стороны достигнут прогресса в случае включения новых жестких мер верификации в новом договоре СНВ-4; 2) в нем будут учтены все ядерные боезаряды всех трех государств, то есть США, России и КНР, а также 3) при условии присоединения к нему китайской стороны. При этом упомянутый анонимный источник выразил сомнения, что такие требования главы нынешней американской администрации являются окончательными. Означает ли это, что еще какое-то энное количество «предварительных условий» будет выдвинуто Вашингтоном?  Нет ясности.

Но пока вернемся к трем из них, которые были заявлены.

Все они страдают отсутствием деталей и дополнительной информации, которая позволила бы дать им профессиональную оценку. Тем не менее, в том виде, как они были изложены, можно обратить внимание на следующие обстоятельства.

Первое. Американская сторона так и не сообщила о том, что она подразумевает под «новыми жесткими мерами верификации», которые она намеревается отразить в договоре СНВ-4. Следует напомнить, что российская сторона пошла на беспрецедентные меры контроля над своими ракетно-ядерными средствами со стороны американских инспекционных групп, которые по сути получили наше согласие на контролирование их боеготовности и особенности их развертывания, в частности, развертывание на боевом дежурстве мобильных средств наземного базирования для доставки ядерных боезарядов российскими РСВН. Известно, что таких мобильных систем СНВ наземного базирования у Соединенных Штатов на вооружении нет.

Второе. Что касается учета «всех ядерных боезарядов» ядерной тройки, то есть США, России и КНР, то «слитая» в  «Wall Street Journal»  информация не содержит никаких уточнений: какие ядерные боезаряды имеются в виду – стратегические и тактические, взятые вместе, или ядерные боезаряды только стратегического назначения. Нет и ясности, о чем идет речь: об оперативно развернутых или оперативно неразвернутых ядерных боезарядах?

Остается неясным и вопрос: какое практически приемлемое уравнение по ограничению ядерных боезарядов СНВ трех названных ядерных держав может предложить американская сторона, если учесть, что американский ядерный арсенал в пять раз превышает китайский. Да еще если учесть, что он подвергнется коренной замене, когда в период 2026-2031 годов в США начнется принятие на вооружение всех трех элементов качественно новой стратегической ядерной триады, которая поэтапно заменит существующую. Нельзя сбрасывать со счетов и тот факт, что американский ядерный арсенал пополнится новой корректируемой высокоточной ядерной авиабомбой В-61-12, которую в Государственном департаменте и Пентагоне рассматривают в двух ипостасях: либо как тактическую, либо как стратегическую в зависимости от авиационных средств ее доставки – либо тактическими, либо стратегическими бомбардировщиками.

В Пентагоне уже не скрывают, что готовы разместить в Европе новые ядерные ракеты средней дальности, которые подпадали бы под положения ДРСМД, если бы его не разорвала в одностороннем порядке нынешняя американская администрация под надуманными предлогами.

Третье. Пекин уже не раз заявлял о своем нежелании присоединиться к «трехстороннему ядерному договору» с участием Вашингтона по целому ряду соображений, которые представляются как убедительные.

Китайская сторона обращает внимание на широкие и комбинированные военные приготовления США, которые направлены против ее оборонных интересов в виде ракетно-ядерных вооружений, противоракетных систем, сил общего назначения, в том числе военно-морских, а также недвусмысленной заявки на единоличное доминирование в космическом пространстве, которое в недавно обнародованной новой американской «Оборонной космической стратегии» объявлен зоной потенциальных боевых действий. Китай – суверенная страна, которую, кстати говоря, Белый дом называет врагом «номер один» или «номер два» в зависимости от контекста американских официальных заявлений, и она сама принимает решения по вопросам национальной безопасности.

Намеки Вашингтона на то, что Москва должна «уговорить» китайскую строну занять третий стул в переговорном процессе по теме ядерных вооружений вообще лишены здравого смысла и логики. Нельзя не удивляться наивности Белого дома, который проводит в отношении России враждебную политику и перманентно объявляет против нее разного рода торгово-экономические и энергетические санкции, но в то же время просит Москву вовлечь  Китай в такой переговорный процесс. Трудно себе представить себе ситуацию, когда оно государство предпринимает явно негативные и вызывающие акции в отношении другого государства, но одновременно просит его подсобить в решении вопроса, который первой никак не удается превратить реальность. Это не просто отсутствие логики. Это – откровенный цинизм.

Предложение Белого дома о включении Пекина в переговоры по ДСНВ-4 придумано им для того, чтобы оправдать свое нежелание продлить ДСНВ-3, ссылаясь на «несговорчивость» китайской стороны. А заодно, в период новой кампании по выборам президента заработать на этом жесте дополнительные очки.

Итак, имеются три «предварительных условия» пролонгации ДСНВ-3 нынешней американской администрацией, изложенные Майклом Гордоном, которому часто поручают информационные вбросы по выявлению реакции другой стороны на внешнеполитические «инициативы» военно-политического руководства США. Вполне может быть, что журналист целенаправленно изложил «запросную» позицию Вашингтона в сокращенном варианте или некие его мечты в общем виде. Но видно, что обнародованные «условия» полны неясностей и недомолвок. Они никак не связаны с существующей реальностью, и по этой причине не могут быть приняты ни Россией, ни Китаем.

От американской стороны требуются четкие, проработанные предложения по контролю над вооружениями, которые содействовали бы укреплению стратегической стабильности в мире, а не преследовали бы только единоличные «уникальные» американские интересы в области их «стратегической безопасности», как там считают. В этом контексте необходимо учитывать, что в списке из тринадцати международных договорных актов, к которым Вашингтон демонстрирует негативный подход, шесть из них имеют прямое или косвенное отношение к проблеме контроля над ракетно-ядерными вооружениями.

Автор: Владимир Козин

Давос и ныне там: чем ещё нас хотят напугать?

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО Владимир Козин в программе “Теория заговора” на канале “Звезда”.
 
Страны Запада объявили России экономическую войну. Такое заявление сделал глава ВТБ Андрей Костин во время визита российской делегации на экономический форум в Давосе. Он также предупредил о нарастающей угрозе военного конфликта в Европе. Запад уже давно ведет войну против России не только в информационном поле. На все том же Давосском форуме экс-глава Пентагона Эштон Картер призвал НАТО разработать план боевых действий против России. К чему приведет западная русофобия?
 
Эфир от 30 января 2018 г.
 

Действия США становятся всё более агрессивными и наступательными

На это нацелены их ключевые военно-политические стратегии.

Правящие элиты Соединённых Штатов неистово пытаются сохранить свою ускользающую гегемонию. В своих усилиях Вашингтон руководствуется доктринальными документами, определяющими цели его политики, а также пути и средства их достижения. Анализу этих документов посвящена монография члена-корреспондента Академии военных наук России Владимира Козина «Ключевые военные стратегии США: их национальные и международные последствия», которая вышла на русском и английском языках. Её презентация на днях состоялась в Российском совете по международным делам.

– Владимир Петрович, почему вы выбрали такую тему для своей монографии, что подтолкнуло взяться именно за неё?

– Сама американская политика. Нельзя безучастно наблюдать, как по вине заокеанского истеблишмента на планете нарастают кризисные явления и стремительно деградирует ситуация в области международной безопасности. Вашингтон пытается установить миропорядок, заставляющий всех жить по пресловутым правилам, выгодным только США. Америка, самопровозгласив себя властелином мира, безнаказанно расправляется с любым, в чём-то неугодным ей государством. Коллективный Запад во главе с США не только навязывает миру беспрецедентную русофобию, но и открыто заявляет о намерении разрушить, расчленить Россию.

Причём эта политика возникла не спонтанно или как реакция на чьи-то действия. Это – продуманная и долговременная стратегия, которая изложена и закреплена в соответствующих американских документах. Более того, некоторые из них действуют уже довольно долго. Эти концепции я и решил подвергнуть подробному анализу и показать всю их опасность человечеству.

– И какие именно американские военно-политические установки привлекли ваше внимание?

– Американские стратегии национальной безопасности и обороны, а также ядерная, противоракетная и космическая стратегии, которые носят наступательный и, безусловно, агрессивный характер и направлены на развитие военного потенциала США с целью достижения победы в воздушном, космическом и кибернетическом пространстве, а также на море и суше. Взять, к примеру, «Оборонную космическую стратегию». В ней открыто сказано, что необходимо добиваться превосходства и доминирования Соединённых Штатов в околоземном пространстве. При этом подчёркивается, что космос является сферой военных действий, а также уникальной областью применения военной силы. В документе определены способы укрепления американской космической мощи, с тем чтобы иметь возможность конкурировать, сдерживать и побеждать в этой, как говорится в документе, «сложной среде безопасности», где наблюдается «конкуренция великих держав».

Все эти концепции были одобрены ещё во время президентства Дональда Трампа и до сих пор являются действующими. А ведь по сложившейся в США практике каждый новый американский президент вносит коррективы в такие стратегии, не меняя их сущности и основной направленности – «мир через силу», «глобальное военное доминирование», «обеспечение победы над противником», «отказ от ранее заключённых соглашений в сфере контроля над вооружениями, если они не отвечают интересам национальной безопасности».

Придя в Белый дом, Джо Байден также обещал их обновить, но пока не сделал этого. В этой связи не может не возникнуть вопроса, почему он так поступает. Однозначного ответа на него нет. Возможно, потому, что эти концепции устраивают его администрацию. А может быть, и на это указывают некоторые американские эксперты, в Вашингтоне пока до конца не определились в конечной цели своей политики в отношении России и КНР. Например, нельзя не заметить некое расхождение в подходах Белого дома и конгресса к проблеме Тайваня.

Правда, следует признать, что определённые шаги по обновлению «пятёрки» ключевых военных стратегий, с целью их адаптации применительно к сложившейся глобальной и региональной военно-политической обстановке в отдельных зонах мира, нынешней американской администрацией всё же делаются. Так, в марте прошлого года Джо Байден подписал «Промежуточное стратегическое руководство для национальной безопасности» на 23 страницах, в котором расставлены акценты и приоритеты такой политики США не только в виде целей, но и средств и способов их достижения.

В марте этого года в конгресс направлен пока закрытый для общественности проект «Стратегии национальной обороны», где КНР названа самым важным стратегическим соперником Соединённых Штатов, а Россия как создающая им острые угрозы. Записано, что разноплановое сдерживание должно быть максимальным, а США будут препятствовать военным приготовлениям «конкурентов» и вместе со своими союзниками противостоять продолжению «вторжения» России на Украину.

В прошлом месяце была выработана директива Пентагона № 3100.10 о военно-космической политике. Но это ещё не полновесная военно-космическая стратегия, а лишь очередной промежуточный документ, направленный на укрепление космических сил, созданных при Трампе. Байден продолжает реализацию 12 программ создания ударных космических вооружений, унаследованных от своего предшественника.

– А в каком ключе в действующих американских стратегиях отражены подходы Вашингтона к контролю над вооружениями?

– В них, надо признать, есть формулировки, которые, казалось бы, соответствуют нашим намерениям установить эффективную и взаимовыгодную систему контроля над вооружениями. Например, о том, что такой процесс должен быть проверяемым и отвечающим национальным интересам.

Однако, по моему убеждению, это не более как желание американцев усыпить нашу бдительность, так как они считают, что в конечном счёте этот процесс должен отвечать только их национальным интересам. Собственно говоря, суть всех стратегических установок США сводится к одному – получить преимущество над своим визави.

Поэтому в названной сфере Соединённые Штаты стремятся к выборочному сокращению у нас отдельных перспективных видов вооружений, в которых у них есть явное технологическое отставание. То есть они пытаются добиться сокращения или уничтожения у нас новейших ударных систем, оставив в стороне переговорного процесса для себя другие виды вооружений наступательного характера, которые также могут создавать реальную и перспективную угрозу нашей национальной безопасности.

Известно, что администрация Байдена отказалась радикально решать проблему вывода на свою территорию тактических ядерных вооружений передового базирования, развёрнутых в Европе и Азии, и вопросы об ограничении комбинированных средств ПРО, а также ударных космических вооружений в виде противоспутниковых систем и вооружений космического базирования класса «космос – поверхность». Не отказались в Вашингтоне и от создания новых ядерных ракет средней дальности, и от проведения совместных ядерных миссий в рамках НАТО с неядерными государствами. Не желают там ратифицировать международный Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний.

Что касается самого процесса контроля над вооружениями в целом, то из действующих соглашений между Москвой и Вашингтоном в этой сфере остались лишь Договор по сокращению стратегических наступательных вооружениях (СНВ-3), подписанный в 2010 году, а также Соглашение о предотвращении инцидентов в открытом море за внешним пределом территориальных вод и в воздушном пространстве над ним, одобренное в 1972 году. В начале 2021 года Россия и США продлили Договор СНВ-3 на пять лет. В МИД России тогда подчеркнули, что договор будет действовать в том виде, как он был подписан, без каких-либо изменений или дополнений, до 5 февраля 2026 года.

Позднее стороны запустили диалог по стратегической стабильности с целью выработки нового договора на смену Договора СНВ-3. Делегациям удалось провести несколько раундов консультаций, но после начала специальной военной операции на Украине Вашингтон приостановил участие в них. При этом там дают понять, что речь о размораживании переговоров может пойти лишь в случае выполнения Россией ряда условий. Как заявил замгоссекретаря по контролю над вооружениями и международной безопасности Бонни Дженкинс, американская сторона приступит к переговорам тогда, когда Россия «проявит добрую волю» в ситуации вокруг Украины. Естественно, для нашей страны, которая последовательно выступает за продление диалога в сфере контроля над вооружениями, такие условия неприемлемы. Да и говорить с нами в таком духе недопустимо.

– На ваш взгляд, какую общую направленность приобретут обновлённые ключевые военные стратегии США, если Байден сумеет их актуализировать в период своего президентства?

– Думаю, что все пять таких стратегий приобретут более опасный характер для нас и Китайской Народной Республики. Они станут более агрессивными и наступательными, так как США не откажутся от своей генеральной линии на военно-силовое доминирование в мире, от политики диктата и вооружённого вмешательства в дела неугодных им суверенных государств. Собственно говоря, об этом свидетельствуют и заявления американских официальных представителей нынешней администрации.

Так, на днях министр армии США Кристин Вормут, выступая с речью на конференции «Военный манёвр» в Форт-Беннинге, штат Джорджия, обозначила шесть концептуальных направлений развития сухопутных сил до 2030 года. К тому времени они, по её словам, должны быть полностью подготовлены к войне с такими противниками, как Россия и КНР. То есть армию, как она подчеркнула, нужно сделать более «смертоносной, мобильной и защищённой».

Вне всякого сомнения, Вашингтон также сохранит приверженность стратегии нанесения первого ядерного удара по определённым государствам под сомнительными предлогами. Кстати, нельзя не заметить, что в последнее время в США стали довольно часто заявлять о возможности применения ядерного оружия в свете развития ситуации на Украине. И даже объявили, что подготовили некий план действий.

При этом складывается впечатление, что в США явно не понимают последствия такого шага, или надеются, что им удастся отсидеться за океаном, избежать ядерного Армагеддона. Однако все надежды и разговоры, что в современном мире возможно ведение ограниченной ядерной войны, являются лишь бредом сумасшедшего. Любая война с применением ядерного оружия приведёт к тотальной ядерной катастрофе.

Беседовал Владимир Кузарь. Источник: «Красная звезда»

 

Дилемма договора СНВ-3: Ключ к его продлению в руках у Вашингтона

После длительного перерыва в изложении своей публичной позиции относительно возможного продления срока действия Договора СНВ-3  Вашингтон в августе-октябре этого года выдвинул российской стороне три «предварительных условия», не постеснялся бесцеремонно предупредить Москву финансовой угрозой, а в середине октября высказал практическое предложение: о «замораживании» ядерных арсеналов сторон.

В «предварительные условия» вошли: обязательное решение вопроса относительно «увеличения у России количества нестратегических ядерных вооружений» (замечание автора: стороны никогда не обменивались их данными); усиление верификационных механизмов по проверке его продленного варианта (замечание автора: Россия пошла на более широкие меры проверки, чем США, у которых нет мобильных МБР), а также создание возможности для включения КНР в будущие российско-американские договоренности по сокращению ядерных СНВ.

Американская сторона заявила, что она может рассмотреть пролонгацию этого договорного акта только в случае согласия Москвы безоговорочно принять все три изложенные условия.

В случае же несогласия российской стороны с обозначенными условиями, Вашингтон, явно забыв правила хорошего тона, предупредил российское военно-политическое руководство о том, что оно «заплатит высокую цену» за несговорчивость на эту тему. Странно, что в США до сих пор не знают, что разговор с Россией в таком тоне бесперспективен, а стало быть, бесполезен.

В середине октября последовал новый официальный шаг США: там заявили о готовности ограничить или заморозить ядерные арсеналы сторон в обмен на желание американской стороны продлить упомянутый договорный акт еще на какой-то срок, но который не был конкретизирован.

Некоторые эксперты интерпретировали изложенные идеи Вашингтона как стремление нынешней республиканской администрации получить дополнительные очки на предстоящих ноябрьских президентских выборах за счет достижения какой-то договоренности в сфере контроля над ядерными вооружениями с Москвой. Например, в деле пролонгации Договора СНВ-3, срок существования которого неуклонно приближается к зафиксированному в нем юридическому и политическому концу: 5 февраля следующего года.

Вполне может быть, что такая цель действительно преследуется нынешним американским президентом. И в этом нет ничего необычного. Но она не главная. Если бы она была таковой, то Вашингтон не отвергнул бы сходу недавнее предложение России о продлении Договора СНВ-3, по меньшей мере, на один год. Стало быть, американские визави не готовы провести в этот период «содержательные переговоры» по вопросам, которые регулируются Договором СНВ-3, на что рассчитывал Кремль. 

Как представляется, в Белом доме были и до сих пор преследуются иные, более весомые военно-стратегические задачи, чем обозначенная им сомнительная схема пролонгации Договора СНВ-3, призванная создать более благоприятную атмосферу для обеспечения гарантированного переизбрания Дональда Трампа.

К таким военно-стратегическим задачам нынешней администрации США вполне можно отнести их закамуфлированное стремление получить односторонние преимущества по целому ряду ключевых направлений их глобальной военной политики

Первое – это их стремление добиться замораживания или ограничения программ создания российских перспективных видов вооружений, например, гиперзвуковых и высокоточных систем стратегических наступательных ядерных и неядерных вооружений, которых пока нет в американских вооруженных силах. Одновременно заметим: на них не распространяются положения договора. В нем даже нет термина «гиперзвуковой маневрирующий боевой блок». До принятия на вооружение новой МБР «Сармат» также не может быть ограничена этим документом.

Второе – это сохранение за пределами Соединенных Штатов тактического ядерного оружия в пяти зарубежных государствах-членах НАТО (Бельгии, Италии, Нидерландах, Турции и ФРГ), которое находится там с середины 50-ых годов прошлого столетия, а также средств его доставки в виде средств передового базирования. Это также продолжение операции ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» в небе Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии с самолетами, сертифицированными для доставки ядерного оружия.

Третье – это продолжение Пентагоном регулярных полетов тяжелой стратегической авиации США в Европе и Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе, в том числе близ российских рубежей с отработкой нанесения ракетно-бомбовых ударов с использованием учебных ядерных авиабомб и крылатых ракет воздушного базирования по Калининградской области и Республике Крым.

Четвертое – это желание Вашингтона подключить Пекин к российско-американским переговорам по сокращению СНВ с целью ограничения проводимых им программ модернизации национальных стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений в условиях расширения ракетно-ядерных и противоракетных военных приготовлений Пентагона в зоне Тихого океана. Зная твердую позицию китайского руководства в отношении неучастия в переговорах по сокращению ядерных СНВ, Вашингтон может использовать прецедент денонсации им Договора о ликвидации РСМД: он оправдывал такой шаг тем, что Пекин не захотел участвовать в нем.

И, наконец, пятое – это полное игнорирование Соединенными Штатами предложений многих государств, выступающих за предотвращение размещения оружия в космическом пространстве, а также против неконтролируемого развертывания глобальной системы противоракетной обороны США и сохранения в их действующей ядерной стратегии положения о нанесении первого упреждающего и превентивного ядерного удара по большой группе государств, в том числе по России и КНР.

Что бы не придумывали в Вашингтоне насчет способов денонсации Договора СНВ-3 или его специфического «продления» на основе разного рода «предварительных условий», ключ к решению этой дилеммы находится у него в руках. Точно также как он находился у него при одностороннем выходе США из Договора по ПРО, Договора о ликвидации РСМД, Договора о торговле оружием и из «иранской ядерной сделки».

Автор: В.П. Козин член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН, ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ

Договор РСМД и другие нарушения Вашингтона

Редакция ЦВПИ обратилась  к профессору Академии военных наук Российской Федерации, ведущему эксперту Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России Владимиру Козину с просьбой прокомментировать многочисленные заявления Вашингтона, в котором утверждается, что Россия «нарушает» Договор о ликвидации РСМД 1987 года.

-  Владимир Петрович, опубликованный в этом году очередной ежегодный доклад Государственного департамента США о соблюдении соглашений и обязательств по контролю над вооружениями вновь бросает обвинения в адрес России по поводу «несоблюдения»  российской стороной Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности 1987 года. 10 мая этого года Комитет по вооруженным силам Палаты представителей американского Конгресса принял к законопроекту о военных расходах в 2019 финансовом году специальную поправку, которая разрешает президенту Соединенных Штатов выйти из этого договора в том случае, если Белый дом подтвердит его «несоблюдение» Россией. А через шесть дней после этого, то есть 16 мая, президент Трамп распорядился ввести против России дополнительные санкции за ее «несоблюдение» договора. На чем же основаны эти обвинения?

-  Ни на чем. Ни фактов, ни доказательств такого «нарушения» или «несоблюдения» Россией названного бессрочного договора никогда не было и до сих пор не существует. Да и не будет. Поскольку государства-участники ОДКБ зафиксировали в Совместном заявлении от 11 июня этого года ценность этого договорного акта, как важного фактора поддержания международной безопасности и стабильности, а также «выступили за его сохранение и неукоснительное соблюдение». Россия подписалась под этим заявлением.

Тем не менее, к распространению слухов о «невыполнении» Россией Договора о ликвидации РСМД Вашингтон прибегал неоднократно уже на протяжении последних нескольких лет, но каждый раз голословно. Как  было прежде, так и сейчас в аналогичных докладах американского внешнеполитического ведомства нет никаких доказательств «невыполнения» договора 1987 года российской стороной. В США выдумывались разного рода буквенно-цифровые шифры «испытанных» российских ракет в «нарушение» договора. Трижды делались экивоки в адрес «испытанных» российских ракет, которые вообще не подпадают под ограничения договора 1987 года. Документ Государственного департамента 2018 года вновь искажает реальное положение дел в этой сфере. Нет никаких фактов о «несоблюдении» этого договора Россией и в поправке Комитета по вооруженным силам Палаты представителей, о которой вы говорите. Вашингтон явно заметался.

В связи с этой поправкой хотел бы обратить внимание, что члены Палаты представителей и представители Пентагона впервые публично признали, что они хотели бы развязать руки своему военно-политическому руководству в создании новой мобильно-грунтовой крылатой ракеты средней дальности наземного базирования (КРНБ) с ядерным боезарядом, запрещенной Договором о ликвидации РСМД, не только в связи с его «несоблюдением» российской стороной, но и с целью «компенсации растущего ядерного потенциала» Китайской Народной Республики и «сдерживания новых ядерных угроз», якобы, исходящих из Пекина. Видимо, в Вашингтоне поняли, что постоянно разыгрывать «российскую карту» в привязке к этому договору нецелесообразно. Решили взяться за «китайскую». Пентагон, например, утверждает, что 85 процентов китайских ракет подпадают под определения Договора о ликвидации РСМД, участником которого Пекин никогда не был и до сих пор не является.

Подкрепляя свои аргументы применительно к КНР, американские законодатели указывают, что она не является участницей договора 1987 года (что полностью соответствует действительности), и по этой причине, мол, создает ядерные ракеты средней и меньшей дальности безо всяких ограничений, в то время как Соединенные Штаты лишены такой возможности.

-  Владимир Петрович, в прошлом году вы выпустили сначала на русском языке монографию «Перспективы Договора о ликвидации РСМД 1987 года. Белая книга». Москва: 2017. 208 стр.,  а затем в текущем году и ее перевод  на английский язык “Perspectives of the 1987 INF Treaty (The White Book).” Moscow. 2018 с таким же объемом. Чем была вызвана публикация этого издания?

-  Она была вызвана двумя основными причинами. Во-первых, представлялось практически важным подвести своеобразный итог тридцатилетнего периода существования этого действующего договорного акта, который является бессрочным. Во-вторых, надо было разобраться, каким образом Соединенные Штаты не соблюдают этот договор, а также проанализировать, по каким причинам они столь настойчиво обвиняют российскую сторону в его «несоблюдении».

-  Почему вы включили в качестве подзаголовка монографии «Белая книга»?

-  Монография была специально подготовлена в духе традиционных «Белых книг», то есть с подробным изложением точек зрения и американской, и российской стороны на проблематику соблюдения Договора о ликвидации РСМД. Разумеется, с целью сохранения формата «Белых книг» аргументы Вашингтона и Москвы на момент выхода этого издания в свет были изложены самым полным образом.

-  К каким же выводам вы пришли?

-  К неутешительным. Дело в том, что начиная с 2001 года, когда Вашингтон объявил об одностороннем выходе из Договора по ПРО и Пентагон приступил к проверке эффективности ударных систем противоракетной обороны с помощью ракет-перехватчиков американская сторона 93 раза нарушила договор 1987 года, поскольку стала применять в качестве перехватываемых целей ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, запрещенные им. В этой статистике, в частности, учитывается испытание системы ПРО, проведенное американскими вооруженными силами в районе Гавайских островов 31 января этого года.

В английском варианте «Белой книги» специально приведены одиннадцать примеров нарушений Соединенными Штатами упомянутого договора с указанием того, ракеты-мишени какой дальности были использованы Пентагоном при тестировании ударных компонентов системы ПРО.

Считаю, что доведение этого показателя нарушений американской стороной договора 1987 года до Вашингтона и мировой общественности в целом позволит расставить все по своим местам, отделив правду от лжи. Юридически оставаясь в рамках этого договора, американская сторона уже давно фактически вышла из него. А поскольку Пентагон намерен продолжать подобные противоракетные испытания, то это означает, что он будет и впредь инициативно и в одностороннем порядке нарушать этот договорный акт.

Помимо приведенной статистики о его нарушениях Соединенными Штатами этот вывод является вторым ключевым выводом проведенного исследования. Это – с одной стороны. А с другой –  ни государственный департамент, ни министерство обороны США так и не представили никаких доказательств «несоблюдения» названного договорного акта Россией за все время существования названного договорного акта.

-  А можно ли доказать, что Пентагон действительно нарушил договор 1987 года именно 93 раза, а не меньше и не больше?

-  Конечно, можно. Причем, без особого труда. Дело в том, что Управление по ПРО Министерства обороны США публикует краткие официальные сообщения о проведении подобных испытаний системы противоракетной обороны. В этих сообщениях, помимо обозначения типа ракеты-перехватчика, места и времени проведения испытания, указывается дальность перехватываемых учебных ракет. Кроме того, соответствующая информация включается в выступления начальников названного управления в должности генерал-лейтенанта или вице-адмирала американских вооруженных сил, с которыми они ежегодно выступают в различных комитетах Сената и Палаты представителей Конгресса во время проведения соответствующих слушаний.

-  Да, счет 93:0 – в пользу Соединенных Штатов в этой области впечатляет. Это – весьма значительное нарушение ими договора. А нет ли других нарушений договора 1987 года с их стороны?

-  Есть. Это – производство и применение Пентагоном ударных БПЛА, которые по Договору о ликвидации РСМД подпадают под определение крылатых ракет наземного базирования. Еще одним нарушением американскими контрагентами станет принятие на вооружение новой мобильно-грунтовой крылатой ракеты наземного базирования с ядерным боезарядом. Это будет еще одним прямым нарушением Договора о ликвидации РСМД. В прошлом году американский Конгресс выделил ассигнования на ее разработку и создание. Не исключается ее последующее размещение в Европе.

-  Почему же Вашингтон все же так упорно твердит о неких «нарушениях» этой договоренности российской стороной?

-  Представляется, что он делает это по трем причинам.

Во-первых, Вашингтон пытается использовать английское идиоматическое выражение «возложить вину на невиновного» или «подбросить обвинения к порогу того, кто не виноват». То есть, активно использует один из традиционных низкопробных приемов информационной войны, который в русском языке характеризуется фразой: «Переложить с больной головы на здоровую».

Во-вторых, американская сторона стремится создать пропагандистскую дымовую завесу в виде информационного прикрытия собственных многочисленных нарушений договора, о которых идет речь, а также для того, чтобы отвлечь внимание от  своей новой ядерной крылатой ракеты наземного базирования, о которой мы уже говорили.

В-третьих, путем постоянного тиражирования пустых обвинений в адрес российской стороны по поводу ее «несоблюдения» договора 1987 года в Вашингтоне спят и видят: как бы уничтожить перспективные виды российских ракетно-ядерных вооружений, способных преодолевать систему ПРО США, никак не подпадающих под терминологические определения ракет  «меньшей и средней дальности», то есть имеющих максимальную дальность стрельбы от 500 до 5500 км, в обмен за добровольный «отказ» не создавать какие-то похожие системы вооружений у себя.

Например, в данном контексте американской стороной были предприняты попытки добиться у России согласия на уничтожение трех видов весьма перспективных баллистических ракет, но выходящих за рамки Договора о ликвидации РСМД. Речь идет об одной оперативно-тактической ракете с дальностью полета менее 500 км и о двух ракетах межконтинентальной дальности, то есть с дальностью стрельбы свыше 5500 км. Впоследствии Вашингтон свои возражения снял, так как все эти ракеты не подпадают под действие договора 1987 года. Но сейчас он вновь указывают на одну российскую МБР, никак не подпадающую под его положения.

Это – результат непрофессионализма. Или просто незатейливый, слабо подготовленный  трюк. Суть придуманной за океаном схемы проста: через один договор уничтожить у нас то, что контролируется совершенно другим договором. Но такой фокус не прошел и никогда не пойдет.

- В интересах устранения «неясностей и противоречий» некоторые западные эксперты предлагают России дать согласие на проведение по условиям Договора 1987 года американскими делегациями инспекций на местах на российской территории, где, по их мнению, испытываются новые российские ракеты средней дальности. Какова ваша точка зрения на это?

- Организация таких инспекций представляется невозможной и нецелесообразной по нескольким причинам.

Во-первых, надо учитывать, что договор 1987 года запрещает только баллистические и крылатые ракеты наземного базирования средней и меньшей дальности, а не морского и воздушного. В этом – принципиальная разница.

Во-вторых, США пока не назвали мест проведения подобных испытаний российской стороной. По этой причине неясно, где же проводить предлагаемые инспекции, если Вашингтон не знает мест их «испытаний»?

В-третьих, поскольку проведение взаимных инспекций – это паритетная акция для участников договоренности, то естественно, что у российской стороны возникнет аналогичное желание проверить американские испытания систем ПРО, в ходе которых в качестве ракет-мишеней уже неоднократно использовались и по-прежнему будут задействованы ракеты средней и меньшей дальности.

И, наконец, в-четвертых, последнее соображение. Как известно, все инспекции России и США, предусмотренные Договором 1987 года, закончились в мае 2001 года, а сам документ не предусматривает их возобновление.

Сожалею, что некоторые российские эксперты подхватили тезис американских визави «о необходимости проведения целенаправленных инспекций» на российской территории в связи с договором 1987 года. Вероятно, это – просто результат их некомпетентности в данном вопросе и последствие незнания особенностей американских нарушений этой договоренности.

- Является ли нарушение Соединенными Штатами Договора о ликвидации РСМД каким-то единственным случаем?

- Нет, к сожалению, это не единственный договор, подвергающийся обструкции с американской стороны.

В общей сложности она нарушает или игнорирует еще несколько договоров в области контроля над вооружениями, в том числе: нарушает двусторонние Договор СНВ-3 и Соглашение об утилизации избыточного оружейного плутония, подписанные с Россией, а также международные договоренности в виде Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия, Договора по открытому небу, обязательства по Венскому документу 2011 года о мерах укрепления доверия и безопасности.

Серьезные претензии к США имеются и по поводу выполнения двух международных конвенций, касающихся ОМУ: о запрещении химического и бактериологического (биологического) оружия. А из Договора по ПРО американская сторона вообще вышла в одностороннем порядке. Кроме того, США не ратифицировали адаптированный Договор об обычных вооруженных силах в Европе и Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний, а также избегают даже минимального обсуждения проектов Договора о европейской безопасности и Договора о предотвращении размещения оружия в космическом пространстве. Наконец, 8  мая этого года Вашингтон в одностороннем порядке вышел из  многостороннего соглашения по военной части иранской ядерной программы, таким образом, нарушив и само соглашение, и резолюцию Совета Безопасности ООН 2231, все члены которого единогласно одобрили названную договоренность в 2015 году. Это – очень тревожный симптом.

Газета «Вашингтон пост», близкая к Республиканской партии  Соединенных Штатов, признает, что майское решение Палаты представителей, о котором идет речь, является сигналом наращивания в Вашингтоне кампании против договоров в сфере контроля над вооружениями. Соглашение о ядерной программе Ирана президент Дональд Трамп уже разорвал. Складывается впечатление, что такая же незавидная судьба ожидает и договор 1987 года, который широко приветствовали во всем мире.

Не слишком ли много нарушений и блокирований с американской стороны? Чересчур. В этом списке – уже 12 нарушенных, заблокированных или торпедированных договоров со стороны Вашингтона в сфере контроля над вооружениями. Но нынешняя администрация США пока не проявляет никакого желания изменить свою позицию по этой проблематике. При этом надо учитывать, что все это произошло или происходит в настоящее время на фоне масштабных военных приготовлений США и НАТО в непосредственной близости от российских рубежей.

Какие практические предложения напрашиваются из проведенного вами исследования?

Разумеется, это мое личное мнение. Следует очень внимательно и с большой осторожностью вести дальнейшие переговоры по контролю над вооружениями с американской стороной – не только с представителями нынешней администрации, но и всех последующих. Они будут продолжать старый и неоднократно использовавшийся ими переговорный стиль: любой ценой добиваться для себя получения односторонних преимуществ в ущерб национальным интересам Российской Федерации. В том числе путем выборочных сокращений вооружений, когда сокращается их один какой-то вид, но дается зеленый свет наращиванию других видов вооружений.

Считаю, что доведение факта столь значительных нарушений американской стороной договора 1987 года в количестве 93 и новых нарушений до Вашингтона и мировой общественности позволит расставить все по своим местам, отделив правду от распространяемой им лжи по поводу «несоблюдения» Договора о ликвидации РСМД российской стороной. Это также поможет снизить накал необоснованных обвинений, которые буквально каждый день предъявляются Российской Федерации американской пропагандистской машиной в связи с этой важной двусторонней договоренностью, не утратившей своей актуальности.

Важно также подчеркивать, что Москва не собирается выходить первой из названного договора. Но если это сделает американская сторона, то ответ России будет незамедлительным и зеркальным. Такое заявление сделал президент Владимир Путин 19 октября 2017 года в Сочи на заседании дискуссионного клуба «Валдай».

 

        

 

Договор РСМД и другие нарушения Вашингтона

Редакция ЦВПИ обратилась с просьбой к ведущему эксперту Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, профессору Академии военных наук Российской Федерации, Владимиру Козину прокомментировать многочисленные заявления США и НАТО, в котором утверждается, что Россия «нарушает» Договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности 1987 года.

- Владимир Петрович, США и НАТО, несмотря на разъяснения России, продолжают безостановочно обвинять ее в «несоблюдении»  Договора о ликвидации РСМД. В последнее время такие заявления появились в итоговом документе трансатлантического саммита, состоявшегося в Брюсселе 11-12 июля. Эта тема прозвучала и на встрече президентов России и США в Хельсинки 16 июля. На чем же основаны все эти обвинения?

- Ни на чем. Ни фактов, ни доказательств такого «нарушения» или «несоблюдения» Россией названного бессрочного договора никогда не было и до сих пор не существует. Да и не будет. Поскольку государства-участники ОДКБ зафиксировали в Совместном заявлении от 11 июня этого года ценность этого договорного акта, как важного фактора поддержания международной безопасности и стабильности, а также «выступили за его сохранение и неукоснительное соблюдение». Россия подписалась под этим заявлением.

Тем не менее, к распространению слухов о «невыполнении» Россией Договора о ликвидации РСМД Вашингтон прибегал неоднократно уже на протяжении последних нескольких лет, но каждый раз голословно. Как  было прежде, так и сейчас в аналогичных докладах американского внешнеполитического ведомства нет никаких доказательств «невыполнения» договора 1987 года российской стороной.

В США выдумывались разного рода буквенно-цифровые шифры неких «испытанных» российских ракет в «нарушение» договора в виде «SSC-7», затем «SSC-8». Трижды делались экивоки в адрес «испытанных» российских ракет, которые вообще не подпадают под ограничения договора 1987 года. Документ Государственного департамента 2018 года по контролю над вооружениями вновь искажает реальное положение дел в этой сфере. Нет никаких фактов о «несоблюдении» этого договора Россией и в поправке Комитета по вооруженным силам Палаты представителей, а также в сенатском решении по военному бюджету на 2019 финансовый год. Нет их и в итоговом документе саммита НАТО этого года.

Вашингтон явно заметался.

В июне этого года члены Палаты представителей, Сената и представители Пентагона публично признали, что они хотели бы развязать руки своему военно-политическому руководству в создании новой мобильно-грунтовой крылатой ракеты средней дальности наземного базирования (КРНБ) с ядерным боезарядом, запрещенной Договором о ликвидации РСМД, не только в связи с его «несоблюдением» российской стороной, но и с целью «компенсации растущего ядерного потенциала» Китайской Народной Республики и «сдерживания новых ядерных угроз», якобы, исходящих из Пекина. Видимо, в Вашингтоне поняли, что постоянно разыгрывать «российскую карту» в привязке к этому договору нецелесообразно. Решили взяться за «китайскую». Пентагон, например, утверждает, что 85 процентов китайских ракет подпадают под определения Договора о ликвидации РСМД, участником которого Пекин никогда не был и до сих пор не является.

Подкрепляя свои аргументы применительно к КНР, американские законодатели указывают, что она не является участницей договора 1987 года (что полностью соответствует действительности), и по этой причине, мол, создает ядерные ракеты средней и меньшей дальности безо всяких ограничений, в то время как Соединенные Штаты лишены такой возможности.

- Владимир Петрович, в прошлом году вы выпустили сначала на русском языке монографию «Перспективы Договора о ликвидации РСМД 1987 года. Белая книга». Москва: 2017. 208 стр.,  а затем в текущем году и ее перевод  на английский язык “Perspectives of the 1987 INF Treaty (The White Book).” Moscow. 2018 с таким же объемом. Чем была вызвана публикация этого издания?

- Она была вызвана двумя основными причинами.

Во-первых, представлялось практически важным подвести своеобразный итог тридцатилетнего периода существования этого действующего договорного акта, который является бессрочным.

Во-вторых, надо было разобраться, каким образом Соединенные Штаты не соблюдают этот договор, а также проанализировать, по каким причинам они столь настойчиво обвиняют российскую сторону в его «несоблюдении».

-  Почему вы включили в качестве подзаголовка монографии «Белая книга»?

- Монография была специально подготовлена в духе традиционных «Белых книг», то есть с подробным изложением точек зрения и американской, и российской стороны на проблематику соблюдения Договора о ликвидации РСМД. Разумеется, с целью сохранения формата «Белых книг» аргументы Вашингтона и Москвы на момент выхода этого издания в свет были изложены самым полным образом.

- К каким же выводам вы пришли?

- К неутешительным. Дело в том, что начиная с 2001 года, когда Вашингтон объявил об одностороннем выходе из Договора по ПРО и Пентагон приступил к проверке эффективности ударных систем противоракетной обороны с помощью ракет-перехватчиков американская сторона 93 раза нарушила договор 1987 года, поскольку стала применять в качестве перехватываемых целей ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, запрещенные им. В этой статистике, в частности, учитывается испытание системы ПРО, проведенное американскими вооруженными силами в районе Гавайских островов 31 января этого года.

В частности, американская сторона неоднократно использовала и по-прежнему намерена использовать ракеты-мишени типа «Hera» (с дальностью стрельбы 1.100-1.200 километров), «MRT-1» (с дальностью стрельбы 1.100 километров) и «LRALT» (с дальностью стрельбы 2.000 километров), то есть те, которые однозначно подпадают под терминологические определения Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности. В мае 2018 года к этому списку российское Министерство обороны добавило еще ракеты «Aries», «LV-2», «Storm» и «Storm-2».

В английском варианте «Белой книги» 2018 года специально приведены в качестве примера одиннадцать выборочных нарушений Соединенными Штатами упомянутого договора из 93 нарушений с указанием того, ракеты-мишени какой дальности были использованы Пентагоном при тестировании ударных компонентов системы ПРО.

Итак, в общей сложности 93 прямых нарушения договора 1987 года со стороны США. Это – огромное количество нарушений.

Считаю, что доведение этого показателя нарушений американской стороной договора 1987 года до Вашингтона и мировой общественности в целом позволит расставить все по своим местам, отделив правду от лжи. Юридически оставаясь в рамках этого договора, американская сторона уже давно фактически вышла из него. А поскольку Пентагон намерен продолжать подобные противоракетные испытания, то это означает, что он будет и впредь инициативно и в одностороннем порядке нарушать этот договорный акт.

Помимо приведенной статистики о его нарушениях Соединенными Штатами этот вывод является вторым ключевым выводом проведенного исследования. Это – с одной стороны. А с другой –  ни государственный департамент, ни министерство обороны США так и не представили никаких доказательств «несоблюдения» названного договорного акта Россией за все время существования названного договорного акта.

- А можно ли доказать, что Пентагон действительно нарушил договор 1987 года именно 93 раза, а не меньше и не больше?

- Конечно, можно. Причем, без особого труда. Дело в том, что Управление по ПРО Министерства обороны США публикует краткие официальные сообщения о проведении подобных испытаний системы противоракетной обороны. В этих сообщениях, помимо обозначения типа ракеты-перехватчика, места и времени проведения испытания, указывается дальность перехватываемых учебных ракет. Кроме того, соответствующая информация включается в выступления начальников названного управления в должности генерал-лейтенанта или вице-адмирала американских вооруженных сил, с которыми они ежегодно выступают в различных комитетах Сената и Палаты представителей Конгресса во время проведения соответствующих слушаний.

-  Да, счет 93:0 – в пользу Соединенных Штатов в этой области впечатляет. Это – весьма значительное нарушение ими договора. А нет ли других нарушений договора 1987 года с их стороны?

- Есть. Это – производство и применение Пентагоном ударных БПЛА, которые по Договору о ликвидации РСМД подпадают под определение крылатых ракет наземного базирования. Еще одним нарушением американскими контрагентами станет принятие на вооружение новой мобильно-грунтовой крылатой ракеты наземного базирования с ядерным боезарядом. Это будет еще одним прямым нарушением Договора о ликвидации РСМД. В прошлом году американский Конгресс выделил ассигнования на ее разработку и создание. Не исключается ее последующее размещение в Европе.

- Почему же Вашингтон все же так упорно твердит о неких «нарушениях» этой договоренности российской стороной?

- Представляется, что он делает это по трем причинам.

Во-первых, Вашингтон пытается использовать английское идиоматическое выражение «возложить вину на невиновного» или «подбросить обвинения к порогу того, кто не виноват». То есть, активно использует один из традиционных приемов информационной войны, который в русском языке характеризуется фразой: «Переложить с больной головы на здоровую».

Во-вторых, американская сторона стремится создать пропагандистскую дымовую завесу в виде информационного прикрытия собственных многочисленных нарушений договора, о которых идет речь, а также для того, чтобы отвлечь внимание от  своей новой ядерной крылатой ракеты наземного базирования, о которой мы уже говорили.

В-третьих, путем постоянного тиражирования пустых обвинений в адрес российской стороны по поводу ее «несоблюдения» договора 1987 года в Вашингтоне спят и видят: как бы уничтожить перспективные виды российских ракетно-ядерных вооружений, способных преодолевать систему ПРО США, никак не подпадающих под терминологические определения ракет  «меньшей и средней дальности», то есть имеющих максимальную дальность стрельбы от 500 до 5500 км, в обмен за добровольный «отказ» не создавать какие-то похожие системы вооружений у себя.

Например, в данном контексте американской стороной были предприняты попытки добиться у России согласия на уничтожение трех видов весьма перспективных баллистических ракет, но выходящих за рамки Договора о ликвидации РСМД. Речь идет об одной оперативно-тактической ракете с дальностью полета менее 500 км и о двух ракетах межконтинентальной дальности, то есть с дальностью стрельбы свыше 5500 км. Впоследствии Вашингтон свои возражения снял, так как все эти ракеты не подпадают под действие договора 1987 года. Но сейчас он вновь указывают на одну российскую МБР, никак не подпадающую под его положения.

Это – результат непрофессионализма. Или просто незатейливый, слабо подготовленный  трюк. Суть придуманной за океаном схемы проста: через один договор уничтожить у нас то, что контролируется совершенно другим договором. Но такой фокус не прошел и никогда не пойдет.

- В интересах устранения «неясностей и противоречий» некоторые западные эксперты предлагают России дать согласие на проведение по условиям Договора 1987 года американскими делегациями инспекций на местах на российской территории, где, по их мнению, испытываются новые российские ракеты средней дальности. Какова ваша точка зрения на это?

- Организация таких инспекций представляется невозможной и нецелесообразной по нескольким причинам.

Во-первых, надо учитывать, что договор 1987 года запрещает только баллистические и крылатые ракеты наземного базирования средней и меньшей дальности, а не морского и воздушного. В этом – принципиальная разница.

Во-вторых, США пока не назвали мест проведения подобных испытаний российской стороной. По этой причине неясно, где же проводить предлагаемые инспекции, если Вашингтон не знает мест их «испытаний»?

В-третьих, поскольку проведение взаимных инспекций – это паритетная акция для участников договоренности, то естественно, что у российской стороны возникнет аналогичное желание проверить американские испытания систем ПРО, в ходе которых в качестве ракет-мишеней уже неоднократно использовались и по-прежнему будут задействованы ракеты средней и меньшей дальности.

И, наконец, в-четвертых, последнее соображение. Как известно, все инспекции России и США, предусмотренные Договором 1987 года, закончились в мае 2001 года, а сам документ не предусматривает их возобновление.

Сожалею, что некоторые российские эксперты подхватили тезис американских визави «о необходимости проведения целенаправленных инспекций» на российской территории в связи с договором 1987 года. Вероятно, это – просто результат их некомпетентности в данном вопросе и последствие незнания особенностей американских нарушений этой договоренности.

- Является ли нарушение Соединенными Штатами Договора о ликвидации РСМД каким-то единственным случаем?

- Нет, к сожалению, это не единственный договор, подвергающийся обструкции с американской стороны.

В общей сложности она нарушает или игнорирует еще несколько договоров в области контроля над вооружениями, в том числе: нарушает двусторонние Договор СНВ-3 и Соглашение об утилизации избыточного оружейного плутония, подписанные с Россией, а также международные договоренности в виде Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия, Договора по открытому небу, обязательства по Венскому документу 2011 года о мерах укрепления доверия и безопасности.

Серьезные претензии к США имеются и по поводу выполнения двух международных конвенций, касающихся ОМУ: о запрещении химического и бактериологического (биологического) оружия. А из Договора по ПРО американская сторона вообще вышла в одностороннем порядке. Кроме того, США не ратифицировали адаптированный Договор об обычных вооруженных силах в Европе и Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний, а также избегают даже минимального обсуждения проектов Договора о европейской безопасности и Договора о предотвращении размещения оружия в космическом пространстве. Наконец, 8  мая этого года Вашингтон в одностороннем порядке вышел из  многостороннего соглашения по военной части иранской ядерной программы, таким образом, нарушив и само соглашение, и резолюцию Совета Безопасности ООН 2231, все члены которого единогласно одобрили названную договоренность в 2015 году. Это – очень тревожный симптом.

Газета «Вашингтон пост», близкая к Республиканской партии  Соединенных Штатов, признает, что майское решение Палаты представителей, о котором идет речь, является сигналом наращивания в Вашингтоне кампании против договоров в сфере контроля над вооружениями. Соглашение о ядерной программе Ирана президент Дональд Трамп уже разорвал. Складывается впечатление, что такая же незавидная судьба ожидает и договор 1987 года, который широко приветствовали во всем мире.

Не слишком ли много нарушений и блокирований с американской стороны? Чересчур. В этом списке – уже 12 нарушенных, заблокированных или торпедированных договоров со стороны Вашингтона в сфере контроля над вооружениями. Но нынешняя администрация США пока не проявляет никакого желания изменить свою позицию по этой проблематике. При этом надо учитывать, что все это произошло или происходит в настоящее время на фоне масштабных военных приготовлений США и НАТО в непосредственной близости от российских рубежей.

- Какие практические предложения напрашиваются из проведенного вами исследования?

- Разумеется, это мое личное мнение. Следует очень внимательно и с большой осторожностью вести дальнейшие переговоры по контролю над вооружениями с американской стороной – не только с представителями нынешней администрации, но и всех последующих. Они будут продолжать старый и неоднократно использовавшийся ими переговорный стиль: любой ценой добиваться для себя получения односторонних преимуществ в ущерб национальным интересам Российской Федерации. В том числе путем выборочных сокращений вооружений, когда сокращается их один какой-то вид, но дается зеленый свет наращиванию других видов вооружений.

Считаю, что доведение факта столь значительных нарушений американской стороной договора 1987 года в количестве 93 и новых нарушений до Вашингтона и мировой общественности позволит расставить все по своим местам, отделив правду от распространяемой им лжи по поводу «несоблюдения» Договора о ликвидации РСМД российской стороной. Это также поможет снизить накал необоснованных обвинений, которые буквально каждый день предъявляются Российской Федерации американской пропагандистской машиной в связи с этой важной двусторонней договоренностью, не утратившей своей актуальности.

Важно также подчеркивать, что Москва не собирается выходить первой из названного договора. Но если это сделает американская сторона, то ответ России будет незамедлительным и зеркальным. Такое заявление сделал президент Владимир Путин 19 октября 2017 года в Сочи на заседании дискуссионного клуба «Валдай».

Договор СНВ-3: тайные замыслы Вашингтона

Москва уже давно проявляла и до сих пор проявляет высокую степень терпения в подходах к решению проблемы пролонгации Договора СНВ-3, целенаправленно загнанной Вашингтоном в глухой тупик

Известно, что действие соглашения истекает 5 февраля следующего года, и если Москва и Вашингтон к этому моменту не успеют договориться о его продлении, то названная договорённость утратит силу и перестанет существовать, оставаясь только в истории.

К истории вопроса о пролонгации

Российская сторона предлагала Белому дому продлить этот договор, подписанный в Праге в апреле 2010 года более года назад, причём на максимально допустимый одноразовый срок пролонгации - на пять лет, что предусмотрено этим договорным актом. Это неоднократно делалось российской делегацией и в ходе двусторонних политических консультаций, которые состоялись в текущем году с официальными американскими представителями по проблематике стратегической стабильности. На что наши американские визави отвечали глубокомысленным молчанием.

Первые официальные заявления Вашингтона на тему пролонгации Пражского договора прозвучали в августе этого года. Но с американской стороны они предусматривали три «предварительных условия»: распространение соглашения на тактические ядерные вооружения, усиление мер контроля за его выполнением и подключение к переговорному процессу КНР на каком-то более позднем этапе. Условия, которые Москве представляются невыполнимыми. 

16 октября текущего года продлить это соглашение по меньшей мере на год и безо всяких предварительных условий предложил российский лидер Владимир Путин. Ясно, что такой шаг позволил бы решить проблему продления Договора СНВ-3 радикально и без проволочек. По его указанию в этот же день МИД России направил американской стороне дипломатическую ноту - официальный и весьма ответственный документ в межгосударственной деловой переписке. В ней было вновь повторено октябрьское предложение главы российского государства на эту тему.

20 октября с заявлением о ситуации с продлением договора выступил МИД России. В нём сообщалось, что на эту дату Министерство не получило официального ответа США на свою дипломатическую ноту от 16 октября  этого года, в которой сформулировано российское предложение о безоговорочном продлении этого договорного акта, по меньшей мере, на один год. В заявлении было вновь подтверждено это предложение и отражена готовность вместе с Вашингтоном взять политическое обязательство  «заморозить» на данный период времени «количество имеющихся у сторон ядерных боезарядов».

Одновременно были высказаны две оговорки принципиального характера.

Первая состоит в том, что обозначенная позиция России может быть реализована строго и исключительно при том понимании, что «заморозка» таких боезарядов «не будет сопровождаться никакими дополнительными требованиями со стороны США».

Вторая оговорка гласит, что будущие переговоры о перспективах контроля над ракетно-ядерными вооружениями будут проходить «с обязательным рассмотрением всех факторов, влияющих на стратегическую стабильность».

К стратегической стабильности Россия относит целый ряд объективных факторов, которые нельзя игнорировать.

Это сохраняющееся почти семь десятилетий размещение в Европе ядерных вооружений США воздушного базирования, общее количество которых занижено приблизительно в 4-5 раз, то есть не 200 единиц, а 800 или даже 1.000 боезарядов. Реальность: нынешняя республиканская администрация отказывается вывозить их на континентальную часть страны.

Это готовность Вашингтона разместить в Европе и Азии новые ядерные ракеты средней и меньшей дальности наземного базирования, о чём недавно поведал министр обороны США Марк Эспер. Реальность: Вашингтон и его союзники по НАТО не поддержали российское предложение по введению моратория о неразвёртывании таких ракет.

Это ставшая стабильной практика направления сразу нескольких тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков США к границам России с европейского и тихоокеанского направлений, имитирующих нанесение ядерных ударов по территории России.

Это бесконтрольное и последовательно наращиваемое количество ракет-перехватчиков ПРО США в глобальном масштабе, и потенциальное использование их пусковых установок для размещения наступательных видов вооружений, например, крылатых ракет или в перспективе гиперзвуковых систем. Реальность: Дональд Трамп заявил, что ни при каких обстоятельствах не будет обсуждать противоракетную проблематику с Россией, а только со своими союзниками по Североатлантическому блоку.

Это отказ американской стороны поддержать предложение о предотвращении гонки вооружений в космическом пространстве. Реальность: республиканская администрация объявила его зоной боевых действий и местом своего доминирования.

Это также тридцатилетнее блокирование Вашингтоном ратификации Договора о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний. Реальность: нынешняя американская администрация в своей ядерной стратегии 2018 года твёрдо заявила о нежелании ратифицировать его и о готовности возобновить испытания ядерных взрывных устройств на ядерном полигоне в Неваде.

«Инициативы» Вашингтона, ведущие в тупик

Вашингтон буквально сходу, без серьёзного анализа, практически дважды за последнее время отверг российский вариант решения проблемы продления договора.

Вначале он выдвинул контрпредложение: распространить положения нового договора о сокращении стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений на все ядерные вооружения двух сторон. То есть на их стратегические и тактические ядерные арсеналы. Американская сторона сделала такой заход, не особо заморачиваясь деталями потенциальной договорённости, которые должны создать её политическую и военно-техническую основу.

Подобная логика и была заложена в эту новую американскую «инициативу», поскольку пока ещё действующий Договор СНВ-3 не распространяется на тактические ядерные боезаряды сторон.

Важно напомнить, что ни Советский Союз, ни Россия никогда не вели с Соединёнными Штатами официальных переговоров об ограничении или сокращении тактических ядерных вооружений. И никогда не обменивались точными данными об их количественных показателях.

Решение вопроса о тактических ядерных вооружениях может оказаться нелёгким процессом, так как на этом пути Москву и Вашингтон неизбежно будут ожидать самые разнообразные проблемы. Среди них не только вопросы проведения инспекционной деятельности централизованных баз хранения тактического ядерного оружия или формулирование правил подсчёта ядерных боезарядов тактического назначения, которые, будучи установленными на тяжёлые стратегические бомбардировщики, приобретают характер стратегических ядерных вооружений. Возникнет дилемма: что делать с самолётами-носителями ядерных авиабомб тактического назначения? Страны-участницы альянса «трансатлантической солидарности» не желают сокращать свои авиационные средства средней дальности, сертифицированные под доставку тактических ядерных авиабомб.

Второй раз в Вашингтоне отреагировали на российское заявление 20 октября в тот же день вечером, то есть опять весьма оперативно. Но снова в виде нескольких предложений и даже понизив политический уровень ответа. С мини-разъяснением выступила официальный представитель Государственного департамента Морган Ортагус, а не спецпредставитель президента по вопросам контроля над вооружениями или советник президента по вопросам национальной безопасности, как это было в первом ответе.

В её заявлении (его даже трудно назвать «заявлением»; это, скорее всего, был мини-комментарий) вновь были высказаны общие слова о готовности США встретиться с российской делегацией «для придания окончательной формы» некоему «соглашению», которое будет подлежать верификации.

О каком же «соглашении» идёт речь: о Договоре СНВ-4? Если о некой политической декларации сторон, то её не верифицируют. Но каковы шансы подготовки проекта следующего Договора СНВ-4, если с треском прекратит своё существование Договор СНВ-3?

Каковы масштабы такой верификации, на что и каким образом она будет распространяться? Хорошо информированная американская газета «Wall Street Journal» 20 октября на своих страницах уточнила, что речь должна идти о развёрнутых и складируемых тактических ядерных боезарядах сторон. Стороны должны сначала публично объявить о количестве таких боезарядов, потом заморозить их и далее обеспечить масштабную проверку заявленных данных.

И, наконец, самое главное: в комментарии американской стороны от 20 октября вообще нет никакой внятной реакции на российское предложение от 16 октября о безусловном продлении Договора СНВ-3 на год. По этим причинам такой ответ представительницы внешнеполитического ведомства США является пустым, непроработанным и неадекватным ситуации.

Через пару дней спецпредставитель американского президента по контролю над вооружениями Маршалл Биллингсли сообщил, что Вашингтон отказывается продлевать этот договор без всяких условий, поскольку, мол, он затрагивает 90-92% всего американского ядерного арсенала и лишь 45% или меньше российского.

Интересно: где он взял эти цифры, если стороны никогда не обменивались данными по тактическому ядерному оружию? Что он имеет в виду, говоря о ядерном «арсенале» двух стран: ядерные боезаряды или их носители? И каким образом он собирается всё это контролировать, если такой верификационный механизм будет гораздо большим, чем инспекционные проверки сторон, проводимые в рамках Договора СНВ-3? В особенности, если учесть идею американской стороны проводить такие инспекции по периметру заводов, производящих ракетно-ядерные средства? Согласятся ли США и другие государства-члены НАТО с тем, чтобы российские инспекторские группы проверяли централизованные базы хранения американского тактического ядерного оружия на территории четырёх европейских государств и на азиатской части Турции?

Почему в последовавших за этим выступлением разъяснениях в заявлении Маршалла Биллингсли говорится уже не о «соглашении», а о некоем первоначальном президентском меморандуме, который потом должен превратиться в «широкую концепцию» контроля над ядерными вооружениями, и лишь впоследствии приобрести форму какого-то нового договора? Трудно себе представить, что США, в настоящее время проявляющие своё негативное отношение к 13 двусторонним и многосторонним договорным актам в названной сфере, вдруг сразу же радикально поменяют свою точку зрения в лучшую сторону. Что вернутся в Договор РСМД или в «иранскую ядерную сделку»? Или ратифицируют Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний? Весьма сомнительно.

Заметно как Вашингтон вытягивает уступки у России в вопросах её национальной безопасности и пытается укрепить свои переговорные позиции. А в последующем свалит всю вину на Москву и Пекин за их «неконструктивность» в решении проблемы продления Пражского договора.

Американская схема довольно проста: только за незначительное продление Договора СНВ-3, за политическое обещание, Белый дом намерен получить огромные уступки от России и КНР в области контроля над ядерными вооружениями. То есть только за одни слова, ничего, по сути, не предложив нам в качестве размена.

Как США стремятся получить односторонние преимущества

Как представляется, Белый дом преследует иные военно-стратегические задачи, чем просто оказание политической поддержки Дональду Трампу на грядущих президентских выборах с помощью видимости «спасения» этого договорного акта. И заключаются они в закамуфлированном под разговоры о пролонгации Договора СНВ-3 стремлении США получить односторонние преимущества по целому ряду ключевых направлений их глобальной военной политики.

Такое стремление проявляется по следующим направлениям.

1. В желании добиться замораживания или ограничения программ создания российских перспективных видов вооружений, например, гиперзвуковых и высокоточных систем стратегических наступательных ядерных и неядерных вооружений, которых пока нет в американских вооружённых силах. Одновременно заметим: на них не распространяются положения договора. В нём даже нет термина «гиперзвуковой маневрирующий боевой блок».

2. В сохранении за пределами Соединённых Штатов тактического ядерного оружия в пяти зарубежных государствах-членах НАТО (Бельгии, Италии, Нидерландах, Турции и ФРГ), которое находится там с середины 1950-х, а также авиационных средств его доставки в виде систем передового базирования.

3. В продолжении регулярных полётов тяжёлой стратегической авиации США в Европе и Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе, в том числе близ российских рубежей с отработкой нанесения ракетно-бомбовых ударов с использованием учебных ядерных авиабомб и крылатых ракет воздушного базирования по Калининградской области и Республике Крым.

4. В стремлении вывести за скобки договорённости американские стратегические наступательные вооружения, не оснащённые ядерными боезарядами, например, четыре подводных ракетоносца стратегического назначения класса «Огайо», каждый из которых переоборудован под доставку 154 крылатых ракет морского базирования без ядерных боезарядов, как это утверждает Пентагон.

5. В намерении Вашингтона подключить Пекин к российско-американским переговорам по сокращению СНВ с целью ограничения проводимых им программ модернизации национальных стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений в условиях расширения ракетно-ядерных и противоракетных военных приготовлений Пентагона в зоне Тихого океана. Кстати, на днях в Вашингтоне заявили, что Соединённые Штаты намерены развернуть в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе собственные ракеты средней и меньшей дальности в ответ на наличие таких систем в арсенале Китая. 

6. Наконец, в полном игнорировании Соединёнными Штатами предложений многих государств, направленных на предотвращение размещения оружия в космическом пространстве. А также против неконтролируемого развёртывания глобальной системы противоракетной обороны США и сохранения в их действующей ядерной стратегии положения о нанесении первого упреждающего и превентивного ядерного удара по большой группе государств, в том числе по России и КНР.

Но даже в этих условиях Москва не намерена отказываться от контактов с Вашингтоном по судьбе Договора СНВ-3. Об этом заявил пресс-секретарь российского президента Дмитрий Песков, подчеркнув, что лишение двух наших стран, а также всего мира этого документа имело бы весьма пагубные последствия в целом для планеты.

И это более здравая позиция, чем у американской стороны.

Важное напоминание Вашингтону

Одновременно очевидно: переговоры с Белым домом по поводу продления названного договора до президентских выборов в США 3 ноября не имеют никаких перспектив в условиях неконструктивной реакции Вашингтона на возможность его продления. Да и времени осталось очень мало, чтобы обсудить весь комплекс проблем, связанных со стратегической стабильностью.

Но такие переговоры вполне могут быть проведены после этой даты. И только тогда, когда американская сторона проявит реализм, уважение партнёра по переговорам, а также воспримет адекватно универсальный принцип контроля над вооружениями - принцип равенства и равной национальной безопасности сторон.

В Вашингтоне должны понимать, что терпение Москвы в вопросе пролонгации Договора СНВ-3 не бесконечно. Важно напомнить и о другом: наша страна никогда не пойдёт на уступки в деле укрепления своей национальной обороны и безопасности.

Выступая на ежегодном заседании Международного дискуссионного клуба «Валдай» 22 октября, глава российского государства заявил: «Но я говорил и хочу ещё раз подчеркнуть: мы не цепляемся за этот договор. Если наши партнёры решат, что он не нужен, - хорошо, так тому и быть, мы же не можем их удержать. Наша безопасность, безопасность России от этого не пострадает, особенно в силу наличия у нас самых современных систем вооружения».

Автор: Владимир Козин, член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН. Источник: еженедельник “Звезда”.

Договоры о вооружениях отравлены скепсисом Трампа

Россию призывают спасать Европу в одиночку

В преддверии одностороннего выхода США из Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД) военно-политические руководители НАТО и Европейского союза вновь выступили с критикой России по этому вопросу.

Позицию Североатлантического альянса изложил во «Франкфуртер альгемайне цайтунг» его генеральный секретарь Йенс Столтенберг. Точку зрения ЕС поведала глава европейской дипломатии Федерика Могерини, которая дала отдельное интервью представителям СМИ, подкрепленное специальным заявлением этой европейской структуры. Оба выступления касались дальнейшей судьбы ДРСМД, но со странным подходом.

Два заявления, один смысл

К сожалению, оба высокопоставленных представителя обратились с прямыми призывами воспользоваться последним шансом, чтобы оставить в силе этот договор, адресовав их только России, а не Соединенным Штатам. Словно не было февральского заявления Дональда Трампа о готовности Вашингтона денонсировать ДРСМД в полном объеме. Следует отметить ряд положений публичных выступлений высокопоставленных представителей НАТО и Евросоюза, имеющих принципиальное значение и которые было бы неправильно оставить без внимания.

И в НАТО, и в ЕС в своих демаршах вновь вытащили тему «создания и развертывания» в России крылатой ракеты наземного базирования (КРНБ) 9М729 с максимальной дальностью 480 километров, то есть не запрещенной ДРСМД, который охватывает своими ограничениями только баллистические и крылатые ракеты средней и меньшей дальности такого же способа базирования – способные преодолевать расстояния от 500 до 5500 километров. По этой причине в изложенной критике прослеживается явный непрофессионализм.

Названные заявления высокопоставленных представителей НАТО и Евросоюза объединяет и то обстоятельство, что они уже в десятый раз не представили никаких доказательств нарушений Россией договора 1987 года, хотя обвинения с их стороны по этому поводу сыплются как из рога изобилия уже семь лет. Для справки: США провели более 30 встреч с Россией на высоком уровне по этому вопросу и всякий раз пытались навести тень на плетень.

Странно, что и Столтенберг, и Могерини проигнорировали тот факт, что США начиная с октября 1999 года при проверке эффективности их системы ПРО активно использовали в качестве учебных перехватываемых мишеней баллистические и крылатые ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, запрещенные ДРСМД. То есть открыто нарушали этот акт. Невозможно предположить, что оба лидера столь высокого ранга не знали о пресс-релизах Пентагона и справочных материалах исследовательской службы конгресса, которые описывали проведенные «эксперименты», указывая не только место и время, но и класс перехватываемых ракет-мишеней, а именно средней, меньшей и промежуточной дальности. К последнему варианту военные США относят образцы с дальностью стрельбы в пределах 3000–5500 километров, которые однозначно вписываются в ограничительные пространственные параметры договора 1987 года. Таким образом, за последние 20 лет американская сторона использовала в общей сложности шесть типов ракет этих классов общим числом 117 единиц.

Потенциальная установка американских КРНБ и беспилотных летальных аппаратов (БЛА), имеющих схожие тактико-технические характеристики с ними, в пусковые шахты операционных баз системы ПРО США в Румынии (уже на боевом дежурстве) и в Польше (приобретет такой статус в 2020 году) также явится нарушением ДРСМД. Такая замена ракет системы ПРО на КРНБ или БЛА наступательного характера может быть произведена довольно быстро, диаметр ПУ и их программное обеспечение позволяют это сделать. А это в общей сложности 48 ракет – по 24 на каждую базу, которые по названным причинам являются комбинированными объектами оборонительно-наступательного характера, да к тому же выдвинутыми «на передовые рубежи» относительно территории России.

Важная деталь: именно новая стратегия противоракетной обороны США, одобренная в начале 2019 года, предусматривает их использование для нанесения удара по России еще «до запуска» российских МБР.

Подобными заявлениями НАТО и ЕС уже давно пытаются переложить ответственность за разрушение ДРСМД с Вашингтона на Москву, хотя именно американская сторона инициировала его денонсацию в одностороннем порядке под фальшивыми предлогами.

В этой связи обращения руководства альянса и Евросоюза к Москве по поводу «спасения» ДРСМД некорректны и несостоятельны. Адресатом должен быть в первую очередь Вашингтон как инициатор курса на слом всей системы контроля над вооружениями. «Нью-Йорк таймс» справедливо отметила 15 июля: «Приверженность Трампа новым соглашениям вызывает вопросы, учтивая общий скепсис его администрации по вопросам контроля над вооружениями».

Стоит напомнить, в чем проявляется скепсис. Из 13 двусторонних и многосторонних договоров и соглашений в этой области, к которым США испытывают крайне негативное отношение, шесть касаются ракетно-ядерных вооружений и укрепления режима нераспространения. Как результат нарушения Соединенными Штатами Договора СНВ-3 и ДНЯО, выход из ДРСМД, отказ от ратификации ДВЗЯИ, одностороннее расторжение СВПД (Совместного всеобъемлющего плана действий по иранской ядерной программе) и неполное соблюдение Соглашения об утилизации оружейного плутония.

Чем закончились консультации?

Итоги состоявшейся встречи в Женеве, которая была проведена на уровне заместителей руководителей внешнеполитических ведомств России и США, не добавили оптимизма ни по поводу ДРСМД, ни относительно возможной пролонгации другого договора, касающегося стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений сторон, который в феврале 2021 года может прекратить свое существование в связи с окончанием срока действия. Речь идет о СНВ-3.

Никаких сдвигов по теме ДРСМД в ходе женевских консультаций не произошло, позиции сторон не изменились, заявил заместитель главы МИДа России Сергей Рябков. Вполне естественно, что делегация РФ отклонила все попытки Вашингтона возложить на Москву ответственность за ожидаемую судьбу договора 1987 года.

Как и ожидалось, сообщил глава российской делегации на женевских консультациях об их итогах, американская делегация вообще не зафиксировала какую-то позицию по теме продления Договора СНВ-3, подписанного в Праге девять лет назад.

Первая причина такого подхода американской стороны в том, что президент Дональд Трамп обещал изложить свою точку зрения по этому вопросу только в следующем году. Вторая в том, что среди высших представителей нынешней американской администрации пока превалирует мнение, будто его продление до 2026 года не отвечает национальным интересам США: он будет мешать создавать принципиально новую стратегическую ядерную триаду с заменой всех трех ее компонентов.

В то же время в Вашингтоне пробрасываются намеки, что американская сторона будет готова пойти на компромисс, то есть продлит его на последующие пять лет, если Россия не будет создавать новые перспективные виды вооружений, которые, как хорошо известно, даже не прописаны в пражском договоре. Ловкий трюк. Видимо, в этом контексте будет справедливым задать простой вопрос: а что США могут уничтожить из своих собственных перспективных вооружений, если российская сторона заявит о готовности продлить Договор СНВ-3 на пять лет?

Наша делегация в Женеве сделала акцент на обязательном соблюдении положения Договора СНВ-3 об органичной взаимосвязи между наступательными и оборонительными стратегическими вооружениями, особо подчеркнув ее возрастающую значимость. Известно, что американская сторона такую взаимосвязь фактически обнулила, приступив к развертыванию глобальной системы ПРО. Такая сцепка будет подорвана в еще большей степени после создания Пентагоном ударных космических вооружений, в том числе развертывания на орбите ударных элементов системы ПРО. Российская же сторона в Женеве особо подчеркнула, что любое новое гипотетическое соглашение с США в сфере контроля над вооружениями должно в обязательном порядке отражать эту взаимосвязь и соблюдать ее.

Делегации обсудили и многие другие темы, которые вызывают вопросы, в том числе аспекты возможного применения ЯО. Известно, что нынешняя ядерная стратегия США имеет 14 положений, позволяющих применить ЯО стратегического и тактического назначения либо в первом, либо в ответном ударе, в то время как соответствующая доктрина России предусматривает только два случая, которые не представляют никакого секрета, и лишь в ответ.

Вызывает беспокойство сохранение в ядерной стратегии США таких установок, как эскалация с целью деэскалации, то есть наращивание возможностей применения ЯО для урегулирования конфликтов с применением обычных видов вооружений. В настоящее время в странах НАТО происходит трансформация военных учений с упором на усиление в них ядерного фактора.

В российской доктрине нет такого положения, равно как и установки о нанесении первого превентивного и упреждающего ядерного удара. Нет и концепции расширенного ядерного сдерживания, которая есть у США. Она предусматривает прикрытие американских союзников по НАТО и ряда государств, не входящих в этот альянс.

В российской ядерной доктрине отсутствует положение о применении ядерных боезарядов малой мощности, в то время как в американской оно присутствует.

На консультациях американская сторона пыталась обвинить Россию в модернизации тактического ЯО, как будто Пентагон не занимается тем же. Прозвучало, что Москва якобы имеет превосходство по этому оружию. Странно, что при изложении своей путаной позиции по этому вопросу американские представители напрочь забыли упомянуть и такой существенный географический фактор, как сохраняющееся в четырех государствах Европы (Бельгии, Италии, Нидерландах и ФРГ), а также в азиатской части Турции американское ЯО тактического значения, способное выполнять стратегические задачи. Подобная забывчивость объясняется тем, что Россия не развертывает такой вид ядерных вооружений за пределами своих рубежей. Сохраняя свое ТЯО на территории неядерных государств, США нарушают Договор о нераспространении, в частности, статью 1.

Что же касается количества тактических ядерных вооружений России и США, то обе стороны никогда не обменивались количественными показателями по ним, поскольку прежде не вели официальных переговоров об их ограничении или сокращении, а лишь указали в начале 90-х процент их добровольного взаимного сокращения относительно неназванной общей величины.

Российская сторона считает, что географический фактор в данном вопросе должен быть раз и навсегда устранен. То есть все американское ТЯО, развернутое в Европе и Азии, без исключения, безо всяких увязок и оговорок должно быть вывезено на континентальную территорию США. Возможные переговоры по ТЯО между Россией и Соединенными Штатами могут начаться только при условии продолжения полного и ответственного участия Вашингтона в Договоре о ликвидации РСМД и полного соблюдения СНВ-3. Но не только в увязке с ними.

Как и в случае с СНВ Россия при рассмотрении вопроса о начале переговоров о сокращении или ограничении ТЯО будет принимать во внимание другие аспекты проблематики нераспространения оружия массового уничтожения и контроля, прежде всего над ядерными и противоракетными вооружениями, а также учитывать объективные факторы, самым непосредственным образом оказывающие влияние на стратегическую стабильность и баланс сил в мире. Речь идет о размещении тяжелых стратегических ядерных бомбардировщиков и тактических ядерных средств передового базирования США в Европе и Азии, продолжающемся процессе создания ими глобальной системы ПРО и других аспектах.

Европа раз и навсегда должна быть освобождена и от новых ядерных ракет средней дальности США, и от их авиабомбы В-61-12, так как она может использоваться в региональных конфликтах, поскольку имеет два варианта боезарядов малой мощности, то есть меньше пяти килотонн. США одновременно должны прекратить нарушать статью 1 ДНЯО, которая запрещает размещение ядерного оружия на территории неядерных государств.

Странно, что в ходе дискуссии в Женеве делегация США настаивала на соучастии КНР в «обновленном» договоре 1987 года, хотя Пекин уже давно решительно и твердо отклонил «трогательную заботу» Вашингтона о сокращении китайского ядерного арсенала на американских условиях.

Намерение создать новые ракеты средней и меньшей дальности в ядерном снаряжении не единственная причина выхода США из ДРСМД. Преследуется еще несколько целей. США намерены искусственно создать в Европе ситуацию, которая возникла после декабрьского (1979) двойного решения НАТО о развертывании ядерных «Першингов» и «Томагавков», заставить Россию отказаться от перспективных видов стратегических ядерных и иных видов вооружений, которые не упомянуты в ДРСМД и Договоре СНВ-3, вовлечь КНР в переговорный процесс о сокращении ее ядерных вооружений, а также побудить своих партнеров по НАТО повысить к 2024 году уровень расходов на военные цели с двух до четырех процентов ВВП.

Объявленные в США и НАТО ответные действия в случае прекращения ДРСМД (в частности усиление потенциала противоракетной обороны, увеличение масштабов военных учений, дополнительная концентрация тяжелых вооружений в Европе, расширение разведывательной деятельности и наращивание военно-морской и военно-воздушной активности вблизи рубежей России) уже успешно преодолеваются военно-техническими мерами и активной деятельностью Вооруженных Сил РФ.

В ответ на выход Вашингтона из договора 1987 года Москва уже на самом высшем государственно-политическом уровне зарезервировала за собой право поступить зеркально и адекватно в ответ на неизбежное изменение военно-стратегической ситуации.

Что же касается возможного развертывания российских ракет средней и меньшей дальности в европейской части страны уже после прекращения существования ДРМСД, здесь также действует принцип зеркальности. Если американские оппоненты не откажутся от своих планов, получат симметричный вариант противодействия. Естественно, вина за такое развитие событий полностью ляжет на Вашингтон. А не на Москву, как заявляет Столтенберг.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: “ВПК”

 

Доклад # 10. Военная операция ВС РФ на Украине неспроста названа «специальной»

Специальна ее цель. Это не захват территории, а ликвидация враждебного самому существованию России режима, уничтожающего русских на Донбассе, поощряющего нацизм и готового разместить на своей территории ракеты блока НАТО, направленные на Москву.

Специальны и ее методы.

В отличие от действий НАТО в Югославии, США в Ираке или Сирии, в отличие от действий киевского режима на Донбассе, Россия не подвергает «ковровым» бомбардировкам украинские города и гражданскую инфраструктуру. Российские войска не бьют по жилым кварталам, когда там прячутся обстреливающие россиян артиллерия ВСУ и нацбатальоны.

Очевидно, что российские Вооруженные Силы оказывают помощь ДНР и ЛНР в установлении государственных границ республик по периметру прежних Донецкой и Луганской областей. Маневренные действия россиян в других регионах Украины направлены на то, чтобы сковать и отрезать друг от друга сосредоточенные там группировки ВСУ и нацистов. В это же время поддерживаемые российской армией корпуса народной милиции ДНР и ЛНР выбивают восемь лет терроризировавшие их родину контингенты карателей со своей территории.

Однако основная цель российской армии явно заключается в том, чтобы как можно быстрее добиться реализации главного условия для денацификации и демилитаризации Украины. То есть в том, чтобы лишить пронацистскую пронатовскую верхушку возможности командовать вооруженными силами и управлять страной. Для этого сразу после высокоточных ударов по объектам военной инфраструктуры Украины, нанесенных в ночь на 24 февраля, российские войска с различных направлений начали продвижение в сторону Киева. Захватываются близлежащие к украинской столице аэродромы, высаживающийся там десант блокирует город.

Ставка на быструю наземную операцию без ущерба для гражданской инфраструктуры и жертв среди мирного населения ведет к жертвам среди самих российских военнослужащих. Гуманность по отношению к братскому народу, стремление как можно скорее завершить боевые действия оборачивается потерями, которых могло бы не быть, если бы действовали по модели покровителей нынешнего киевского режима – НАТО и США.

Войны без потерь не бывает, но важно осознавать, что эти потери российская армия несет ради существования самой России. Если бы позволили Украине стать нацистским государством под крылом Северо-Атлантического альянса, то в итоге пришло бы к тому, что потери в гораздо большем масштабе пришлось бы нести на собственной территории. Как об этом и сказал Владимир Путин в своем обращении рано утром 24 февраля, проведя аналогию с 22 июня 1941 г.

Можно предположить, что достаточно неожиданно для российского общества начавшаяся операция на Украине мобилизует россиян. Запад продолжает накачивать нацистов на Украине оружием (17 стран-членов НАТО из 30 продолжают поставлять оружие на Украину) и уже посылает им на помощь ЧВК и «добровольцев». Лидеры западных стран санкционируют право своих вояк стрелять

в российских солдат у порога их собственного дома. Тем временем украинские нацисты с подачи западных советников и киевских властей рассылают российским детям фотографии убитых на Украине наших солдат.

Ясно, что в России все это вызовет скорее рост патриотических настроений, чем антивоенные протесты. В ближайшее время стоит ожидать приток российских мужчин в военкоматы с просьбой отправить их на борьбу с нацизмом и натовскими боевиками на территории Украины.

Автор: В.П. Козин – член-корреспондент  РАВН и РАЕН

Евросоюз сделал новый шаг к развитию связей с НАТО

 
13 ноября 2017 года 23 государства-члена Евросоюза из 28 стран его списочного состава подписали в Брюсселе «уведомление» о создании специальной структуры – «Постоянного структурированного сотрудничества» («Permanent Structured Cooperation» или сокращенно «PESCO») – с целью развития военных потенциалов, повышения оперативной готовности своих вооруженных сил, а также в интересах расширения инвестиций в совместные оборонные проекты, что, по мнению Верховного представителя Евросоюза по иностранным делам  и политике безопасности Федерики Могерини, сделает взаимодействие в области безопасности и обороны между входящими в него членами «более амбициозным и более гибким».
 
Комментируя принятое решение, ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ, профессор Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин отметил, что принятое решение, к которому в перспективе могут присоединиться остальные государства-члены Евросоюза, означает дальнейшую интеграцию его военных потенциалов с потенциалами НАТО, подавляющее членов которой одновременно являются участниками названной европейской структуры. Он обратил внимание на то обстоятельство, что оба института уже поддерживают тесное взаимодействие по семи различным направлениям при проведении 42 оперативных акций военной направленности, исходя при этом из того, что Евросоюз пока занимается укреплением безопасности только на европейском континенте, а НАТО – в гораздо более широком, глобальном измерении.
 
Военный эксперт ЦВПИ полагает, что учреждение в рамках Евросоюза специальной структуры – «Постоянного структурированного сотрудничества» –  может привести к созданию «Европейской армии», разговоры о которой в европейских военно-политических кругах ведутся уже не одно десятилетие. Он обратил внимание на то, что «зона ответственности» новой инфраструктуры Евросоюза со временем будет такой же, как и сфера деятельности Североатлантического союза, то есть, проецирована на весь земной шар, а ее военная деятельность будет охватывать до 50 различных военных программ, среди которых, в частности, значатся развитие военных потенциалов, усиление оперативного взаимодействия и повышение боевой готовности вооруженных сил государств, являющихся участниками Евросоюза. Владимир Козин указал и на заявленную в Евросоюзе готовность, в случае необходимости, укреплять «стратегическую автономность» и проводить самостоятельные военные операции. Одновременно отражена установка на соответствие военно-технических и оперативных инструкций и наставлений стандартам альянса.
 
Не исключается возможность выделения вооруженных контингентов Евросоюза вооруженным силам трансатлантического блока при проведении им военных акций и миротворческим силам под эгидой ООН.
 
Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ отметил, что как участники новой структуры, как и государства, входящие в НАТО, приняли решение «периодически» повышать свои военные расходы. Решено увеличить на 20 процентов объем оборонных инвестиций в суммарном измерении, правда, без указания сроков.
 
Владимир Козин обратил внимание на совпадение решения от 13 ноября о создании обозначенной специальной структуры с другим решением, которое было принято в НАТО за неделю до этого, когда альянс также создал новую командно-штабную структуру: «Атлантическое командование», на которое будет возложена обязанность по обеспечению эффективности быстрой переброски вооруженных сил США в Европу и оперативное передвижение вооруженных сил блока по всему европейскому континенту.
«Практически одновременное создание названных двух структур в Евросоюзе и НАТО означает, что к вооруженным силам трансатлантического альянса отныне будут подключены и вооруженные силы тех европейских государств, которые не входят в военный пакт «трансатлантической солидарности». В конечном итоге это приведет к тому, что в Европе в еще большей степени будут наращиваться все три компонента «чикагской триады» – оперативно-стратегического механизма «передового базирования», состоящего из ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных видов вооружений, который был создан на саммите НАТО в мае 2012 года»,–  заключил Владимир Козин.
 
По его мнению, все это отложит на долгие годы принятие Договора о европейской безопасности и подписание нового Договора о сокращении обычных вооруженных сил в Европе, а также может привести к понижению уровня безопасности на европейском континенте.
 
Ожидается, что новый проект Евросоюза будет запущен к концу 2017 года.

Евросоюз. Линия раскола

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ Владимир Козин выступил в программе "Специальный репортаж" телеканала "Звезда" , в которой подверг критике инициативу "Трех морей" за возможность включения в нее силового компонента, а также масштабные учения НАТО "Защитник Европы."

На Мюнхенской конференции по безопасности Майк Помпео предложил странам Восточной Европы миллиард долларов за отказ от российского газа. Зачем Вашингтон покупает газовую лояльность Прибалтики, Польши и Украины? Что стоит за этими экономическими обещаниями? 
 
Одновременно США активно проталкивают идею «Союза трех морей», включающую объединение газотранспортных систем балканских стран, Прибалтики, Польши и Украины. Создание восточноевропейского «энергетического пояса» из настроенных против России стран фактически отрезает нашу страну от Старой Европы. 
 
Почему США это выгодно? В это же время Вашингтон начинают переброску военных на крупнейшие за 25 лет учения НАТО «Защитник Европы 2020». Останутся ли военнослужащие США в странах Восточной Европы надолго? И чем все это опасно для России? 
 
Эфир от 20 января 2019г.
 
Источник: ТРК ВС РФ «ЗВЕЗДА»
 
Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/46203

 

Еще раз о договоре РСМД: с больной головы на здоровую

«Чем кумушек считать трудиться,
 не лучше ль на себя, кума, оборотиться?»
(из басни Ивана Крылова «Зеркало и обезьяна»)
 
На днях генеральный секретарь НАТО Йенс Столтенберг и постоянный представитель США при НАТО Кэй Бэйли Хатчисон обвинили Россию в «несоблюдении» Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, который был подписан в 1987 году, указав при этом на ракету российского производства «9М729», которая, якобы, представляет собой его «нарушение».
 
В своих заявлениях оба названных высокопоставленных деятеля проявили явный непрофессионализм при понимании данной проблемы.
Во-первых, эта ракета никак не подпадает под ограничения двустороннего акта 1987 года, о чем российская сторона уже неоднократно дала соответствующие разъяснения американским и натовским контрагентам.
 
Во-вторых, прежде чем критиковать российскую сторону в этом вопросе нужно просто знать минимальные и максимальные параметры полета ракет средней и меньшей дальности, зафиксированные в этом открытом для всеобщего обозрения тексте договора.
 
В третьих, от этих официальных представителей требуется хотя бы элементарное знание уже состоявшегося решения Конгресса США о выделении ассигнований на проведение НИОКР по новой американской крылатой ракеты наземного базирования средней дальности в ядерном снаряжении, которую Пентагон намерен развернуть в Европе, что будет являться прямым нарушением договора 1987 года.
 
В-четвертых, эти ответственные лица не могут не знать, что США уже 94 раза нарушили этот договор, когда на протяжении последних 17 лет они многократно использовали в качестве учебных ракет как раз запрещенные ракеты средней и меньшей дальности при тестировании эффективности их глобальной системы ПРО. Все эти данные имеются в открытом доступе на официальном сайте Управления по противоракетной обороне Пентагона.
 
Подлинная причина необоснованных и недоказанных нападок различных западных деятелей на Россию в привязке к Договору РСМД заключается именно в маскировке третьего и четвертого обстоятельств, упомянутых выше.
Так что процитированные здесь в качестве эпиграфа слова из известной басни великого русского баснописца Ивана Крылова в данном контексте являются более чем уместными.
 
Автор: В.П. Козин – ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО, член-корреспондент РАЕН, профессор РАВН

Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/42449

 

Ещё одна стратегия доминирования США

Новая концепция Пентагона пронизана духом агрессивности и воинственности

19 января Пентагон опубликовал «Краткое содержание стратегии национальной обороны Соединённых Штатов Америки 2018 года», которая заменила аналогичную стратегию, одобренную администрацией Барака Обамы в 2015 году. Она имеет открытую часть в виде резюме на 11 страницах, подписанную министром обороны Джеймсом Мэттисом, и секретный раздел объёмом более 50 страниц, который, естественно, не обнародован.

Принятый документ дополнил утверждённую в декабре прошлого года президентом Дональдом Трампом «Стратегию национальной безопасности». Одновременно он стал очередным звеном в серии актуализированных военно-стратегических установок Соединённых Штатов, которые вскоре вступят в силу. В их числе: «Обзор ядерной политики», представляющий собой ядерную стратегию страны в ближайшей и более отдалённой перспективе, а также «Обзор противоракетной обороны», который определит основные направления развития и применения ударно-боевых средств перехвата баллистических и крылатых ракет.

Новая оборонная стратегия определяет ключевые цели и задачи, стоящие перед американскими вооружёнными силами, формулирует главные принципы военного строительства и планирования в военной сфере. При этом особое внимание обращается на необходимость модернизации ракетно-ядерных сил, противоракетной инфраструктуры, беспилотных аппаратов, а также усовершенствование всего комплекса командно-управленческих, разведывательных, информационных и иных систем в военной области. Указанные потребности мотивируются тем, что вооружённые силы США, которые прежде доминировали на многих направлениях, в настоящее время, мол, сталкиваются с конкуренцией в пяти сферах: на земле и море, в воздушном и космическом пространстве, а также в киберсетях.

В связи с этим подчёркивается необходимость проведения существенной модернизации американских вооружённых сил в целом и увеличения расходов на создание перспективных видов и систем вооружений. Особое значение придаётся дальнейшему развитию стратегической ядерной триады и повышению эффективности всей системы управления национальными ядерными силами.

В документе говорится, что последующие инвестиции должны содействовать развитию эшелонированной системы ПРО с целью противодействия ракетным угрозам на театрах военных действий, в том числе таким, которые исходят от КНДР. Подчёркнута значимость повышения готовности к активному уничтожению средств ПВО и ПРО потенциальных противников.

Также описана «Глобальная оперативная модель» развёртывания и применения объединённых вооружённых сил США, которые должны быть способны вести боевые действия с использованием всех имеющихся средств: обычных, ракетно-ядерных, ударных космических, а также кибернетических. В частности, предписано, чтобы киберпотенциал был в полном объёме внедрён во весь спектр военных операций. В «резюме» новой стратегии упомянута и концепция «Динамичного применения вооружённых сил», предусматривающая их срочную перегруппировку для решения внезапно поставленных задач приоритетного характера.

Вновь прозвучала генеральная установка на сохранение «глобального американского влияния», «военного превосходства США в мире и в его ключевых регионах», на создание «благоприятных балансов сил», а также на противодействие долгосрочной стратегической конкуренции со стороны «ревизионистских держав», которые вкупе с «несостоятельными государствами» пытаются, дескать, конкурировать по всем направлениям.

Нельзя не заметить, что в оборонную стратегию внедрена новая идея о том, что США должны действовать «предсказуемо» на стратегическом уровне и «непредсказуемо» на оперативном.

Интересно также, что отныне Соединённые Штаты сосредоточатся на «соперничестве великих держав», а не на противодействии терроризму. На это обратил внимание глава Пентагона Джеймс Мэттис, выступая на презентации новой оборонной доктрины. «Мы продолжим проводить кампанию против террористов, но именно соперничество великих держав, а не терроризм, теперь находится в фокусе национальной безопасности США», – заявил он. При этом было уточнено, что США не собираются уходить с Ближнего Востока, объявляя своим приоритетом борьбу с терроризмом в названном регионе и достижение такого положения, когда в нём «не могла бы доминировать ни одна держава, враждебная Соединённым Штатам». Поставлена задача не допустить террористов к обретению оружия массового поражения.

Документ уделяет большое внимание «сдерживанию» Китая и России (причём в этом списке Китай стоит на первом месте). По словам шефа Пентагона, США сталкиваются с растущими угрозами со стороны Китая и России, которые хотят создать мир в соответствии со своими «моделями». Обе страны голословно обвинены в наделении «себя правом вето над экономическими, дипломатическими решениями и решениями безопасности других стран». Многочисленным искажениям подвергается и военная политика двух наших дружественных государств. Из всего этого делается вывод, что Соединённые Штаты должны наращивать свой военный потенциал, чтобы быть готовыми противостоять Пекину и Москве в длительной перспективе.

Среди вероятных противников США упоминаются также КНДР и Иран. «Такие страны-изгои, как Северная Корея и Иран, дестабилизируют свои регионы, пытаясь обзавестись ядерным оружием или поддерживая терроризм», – говорится в документе. Тегерану ещё приписали стремление развивать ракетный потенциал.

В документе перед американскими объединёнными вооружёнными силами поставлена задача: «сдерживать агрессию в трёх ключевых крупных зонах: в Индо-Тихоокеанском регионе, в Европе и на Ближнем Востоке». Примечательно, что в тексте отсутствует термин «Азиатско-Тихоокеанский регион», а использовано более широкое географическое понятие как «Индо-Тихоокеанский регион», который, как представляется, дополнительно включает полуостров Индостан и прилегающие к нему зоны. Можно напомнить, что в аналогичной стратегии Барака Обамы говорилось о «перебалансировке» вооружённых сил США только в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе.

В своём выступлении Джеймс Мэттис также ратовал за стабильное наращивание военных расходов страны, мотивируя потребностью выхода из «стратегической атрофии», в которой прежде она находилась. Он буквально потребовал от конгресса без особых рассуждений выделять деньги на военные нужды. «Без должного финансирования корабли не выйдут в море. Корабли, уже находящиеся в море, не вернутся в порт. Самолёты будут стоять на земле. Пилоты будут в плохой форме. И в итоге военные, подготовленные военные не будут готовы воевать, если придёт война. Но я оптимист и верю, что конгресс примет правильное решение», – сказал глава Пентагона, явно намекая на то, что рекордного оборонного бюджета в 700 млрд долларов, утверждённого на этот год, ему маловато.

«Мы собираемся создавать более ударные силы», – подчеркнул американский министр. Он также процитировал положение из обновлённой «Стратегии национальной безопасности» о том, что Вашингтон будет укреплять традиционные альянсы и одновременно создавать «новые партнёрства» с другими государствами. От союзников по Североатлантическому альянсу, напомнил Джеймс Мэттис, требуется повысить оперативное взаимодействие, а также выполнить обязательства по увеличению взноса в бюджет НАТО на закупку и модернизацию вооружений и военной техники.

Представленная оборонная стратегия явно демонстрирует настрой нынешней американской администрации на обеспечение монополярности глобального мироустройства под руководством Вашингтона, а также комбинированного доминирования США и НАТО в военной области и распространение их «военной мощи» по всему земному шару. По признанию заместителя министра обороны США по вопросам развития стратегии и вооружённых сил Элбриджа Колби, новая доктрина национальной обороны исходит из объявленной военно-стратегической установки Дональда Трампа «Мир через силу».

Итак, появилась ещё одна стратегия Соединённых Штатов, пронизанная духом агрессивности и настроя на вмешательство во внутренние дела других государств с помощью вооружённых сил. Москва сожалеет, подчеркнул глава внешнеполитического ведомства России Сергей Лавров, оценивая американскую военную стратегию, что США, вместо того чтобы вести нормальный диалог, вместо того чтобы базироваться на международном праве, стремятся доказывать своё лидерство через такого рода конфронтационные концепции.

Автор:  Владимир Козин, Источник: “Красная звезда”

Запорожская АЭС: провокации Украины продолжаются

В их информационном прикрытии вновь обозначилась «Нью-Йорк Таймс»

9 марта 2023 года газета «Нью-Йорк Таймс» опубликовала статью под названием «Атомное агентство ООН осуждает самоуспокоенность в отношении безопасности на Запорожской АЭС после новых российских обстрелов». Авторами статьи являются Мэтью Мпоке Бигг и Марк Сантора.

Суть их обвинений

В своем материале они заявили: "Глава атомного наблюдательного органа ООН [то есть, МАГАТЭ] выразил в четверг [8 марта 2023 года] удивление по поводу международной самоуспокоенности в отношении безопасности Запорожской АЭС, что на юге Украины, где несколькими часами ранее российский обстрел вновь привел к отключению электричества на станции и заставил операторов прибегнуть к использованию резервных генераторов для поддержания энергобезопасности этого объекта».

Далее в материале было указано, что по данным государственной атомной компании Украины «Энергоатом» российский обстрел 8 марта перерезал внешние линии электропередач, по которым электроэнергия подается на шесть реакторов станции. Соавторы утверждали, что если не удастся возобновить внешнее электроснабжение станции, то на ней может произойти авария с радиоактивными последствиями глобального характера.

Мэтью Мпоке Бигг и Марк Сантора утверждали, что МАГАТЭ уже несколько месяцев пытается достигнуть соглашения между Москвой и Киевом о создании зоны безопасности вокруг этой станции. Но министр энергетики Украины заявил, что переговоры зашли в тупик, потому что Россия, мол, отказала украинскому правительству в требовании вывести российские войска с территории названной АЭС и вновь передать контроль над ней украинскому «Энергоатому».

В другой статье «Вот почему эксперты обеспокоены рисками безопасности Запорожской атомной электростанции», опубликованной также в «Нью-Йорк Таймс» 9 марта и обновленной на следующий день, журналистка Карли Олсон отметила, что национальная энергетическая компания Украины «Укрэнерго» сообщила, что станция была вновь подключена к электросети спустя 11 часов с момента отключения.

Что скрывается за искажениями истины?

Все пассажи, процитированные выше, выглядят, с одной стороны, критическими в наш адрес, а с другой – обнадеживающими. Но только на первый взгляд – на поверхности явлений.

Особенно трагическим представляется утверждение о том, что Россия отказалась от требования украинского правительства вывести свои войска с территории ЗАЭС и вновь передать контроль над ней украинскому «Энергоатому». Переживания возникли и по той причине, что Москва передала Запорожскую станцию под контроль своей собственной государственной компании «Росатом». В этой связи надо напомнить, что эта станция с октября прошлого года находится территории Запорожской области, вошедшей в состав Российской Федерации.

Все сказанное в этой части является правдоподобным. И отказ Москвы от вывода контингента Росгвардии с территории теперь уже российской АЭС. И игнорирование требования Киева передать эту станцию стране-агрессору и стране, которая, постоянно обстреливая ЗАЭС тяжелыми видами вооружений, уже длительное время занимается открытым ядерным шантажом всей Европы.

Но в статье известной американской газеты есть несколько серьезных и намеренных искажений, тщательно составленных в «Нью-Йорк Таймс» для тех, кто по каким-то образом не знает реалий, или кто не имеет достаточного времени, чтобы уделить им особое внимание. Что это за искажения?

Во-первых, Мэтью Мпоке Бигг и Марк Сантора утверждают, что откуда-то также «поступали многочисленные сообщения о том, что снаряды падали на территорию Запорожской станции и рядом с ней». Да, украинские войска делали это неоднократно, но соавторы предпочли замолчать подобные реальные факты. С другой стороны, никаких «российских обстрелов» ЗАЭС ни 8 марта 2023 года, ни ранее в 2022-2023 годы никогда зафиксировано не было.

Более того, все эти «факты» никем не были подтверждены. Ничего из того, что могло бы нарисовать объективную картину «произошедшего» никем и никогда до сих пор представлено не было. Ни фрагментов ракет или снарядов от «упавших» ракет или снарядов, ни фотографий их падения на землю или на территорию станции, ни огневых позиций, откуда велись бы такие «обстрелы». Интересно: с какого места российские ракеты и снаряды «падали на территорию станции и рядом с ней»? С территории этой же АЭС?

Ни украинская сторона, ни МАГАТЭ, ни Секретариат ООН подобных «доказательств» до сих пор и никому не представили. Обстрел ЗАЭС со стороны России просто невозможен, так как Росгвардия осуществляет полный контроль и обеспечивает физическую безопасность этой АЭС, а российские операторы начали и продолжают квалифицированно работать на ней с 4 марта прошлого года.

Реальность же такова, что 8 марта 2023 года, а также многократно в прошлом и текущем году Запорожская АЭС подверглась непосредственному артиллерийско-ракетному обстрелу из тяжелого вооружения ВСУ, причем, с территории, расположенной и контролируемой нынешним украинским военно-политическим руководством. В основном это происходило через акваторию прилегающего к станции Каховского водохранилища. Это осуществлялось с окраин украинских городов Марганец и Никополь. Все эти пункты контролировались до начала Специальной военной операции России и до сих пор контролируются ВСУ.

Во-вторых, Мэтью Мпоке Бигг и Марк Сантора бездоказательно сообщали, что российские обстрелы снова привели к «отключению подачи электроэнергии на станцию». Это фальшивое утверждение. Москва не заинтересована в отключении поставок электроэнергии на ЗАЭС, которая с октября 2022 года в полном объеме стала российской собственностью, а также управляется и будет управляться российскими специалистами, имеющими значительный опыт в такой сфере.

Это Украина вновь отключила электроэнергию, поставляемую на станцию с ее территории по Днепровской ЛЭП. Эта линия также полностью контролируется украинской стороной.

Очевидно, Киев отдает указания на ее отключение потому, что ЗАЭС уже не является украинской собственностью и что он заинтересован в продолжении своей политики ядерного шантажа, связанного с этой АЭС, о чем свидетельствуют обстрелы со стороны ВСУ как самой станции, так и прилегающей к ней территории [см. приложение ниже]. Соавторы статьи в «Нью-Йорк Таймс» вообще «позабыли» упомянуть все эти факты.

Отключение ЗАЭС от электропитания со стороны Украины – это провокация Киева с целью обвинения России в неспособности обеспечить безопасность на указанном ядерном объекте, заявил Владимир Рогов, член Главного совета Администрации Запорожской области. Можно к сказанному добавить: а также с целью продолжения ядерного шантажа с помощью ЗАЭС.

В-третьих, как было отражено в объемных докладах МАГАТЭ за 2022-2023 годы (по 50 страниц каждый), соавторы публикации в «Нью-Йорк Таймс» использовали псевдоинформацию, предоставленную исключительно украинской стороной. В частности, сообщенную премьер-министром, «Энергоатомом» и другими украинскими официальными представителями, которые уже придумали множество лживых историй с тех пор, когда Украина начала вооруженную агрессию сначала против Донбасса 13 апреля 2014 года, а затем против Донбасса и России – 14 февраля 2022 года.

В-четвертых, в своей статье Мэтью Мпоке Бигг и Марк Сантора ни разу не процитировали ни одного компетентного российского источника. Что помешало им сделать это? Хотя бы ради демонстрации объективности. Не получили указаний из Киева или из Вашингтона?

Очевидные выводы

Итак, провокационные вооруженные и технологические акции Украины в отношении Запорожской АЭС продолжаются до сих пор. К чему они могут привести?

Во-первых, повторяющиеся украинские обстрелы по-прежнему представляют собой постоянную угрозу физической целостности станции и вспомогательных объектов, относящихся к ней. Это имеет реальные негативные последствия для ее повседневной деятельности и может привести к ядерному инциденту или аварии, поскольку столь критически важный объект не прекратил свою работу в полном объеме.

Что касается всех шести энергоблоков ЗАЭС, то к настоящему времени блоки № 1 и № 3 находятся в ремонте, № 2 и № 4 пребывают, как говорят профессиональные энергетики-атомщики, в режиме холодного останова, а энергоблоки № 5 и № 6 работают в состоянии горячего останова с целью производства пара для обеспечения регулярной работы станции.

Хотя продолжающиеся украинские артиллерийско-ракетные обстрелы Запорожской АЭС пока не привели к ядерной трагедии, такие инциденты продолжают представлять постоянную угрозу ее ядерной безопасности. Физическая целостность ЗАЭС также по-прежнему серьезно нарушается в результате частых и преднамеренных украинских обстрелов с использованием крупнокалиберных вооружений.

Советник гендиректора концерна «Росэнергоатом» Ренат Карчаа недавно заявил, что таким образом Киев намерен осложнить работу операторов на ЗАЭС и захватить ее силой. Это – правильное предположение, основанное на зафиксированных фактах долговременных и целенаправленных действий украинской стороны.

Повреждения реакторных блоков, специальных сооружений для хранения еще неиспользованного и уже отработавшего ядерного топлива, а также для хранения радиоактивных отходов, различных распределительных вспомогательных систем и водоемов охлаждения станции, а также дальнейшее повреждение сети электропитания реакторных энергоустановок и других сооружений ЗАЭС создают реальную опасность для нормального существования и работы этой станции.

Но МАГАТЭ до сих пор скрывает все эти многочисленные обстрелы ЗАЭС со стороны ВСУ. Последний доклад этого агентства, опубликованный перед мартом этого года, по-прежнему остается политизированным и необъективным в отношении России, равно как и другой аналогичный документ, одобренный этим международным органом в сентябре прошлого года. Постпред России при международных организациях в Вене Михаил Ульянов недавно заявил, что секретариат МАГАТЭ продолжает игнорировать предоставляемую российской стороной информацию о реальном положении дел на Запорожской АЭС, в частности с изложением фактов обстрелов станции именно украинской стороной. В информационном прикрытии акций ВСУ против нее активно задействуется и «Нью-Йорк Таймс», и многое другие издания Запада.

Генеральный директор МАГАТЭ Рафаэль Гросси, который недавно был назначен на эту должность на второй срок, по-прежнему не рассматривает ЗАЭС в качестве собственности Российской Федерации. Он также замалчивает то факт, что Киев постоянно отказывается давать гарантии по недопущению обстрелов этой станции и ее города-спутника Энергодара.

Так может быть, его вообще не стоит принимать в нашей стране по этой причине, а также потому, что он ни разу не признал, что Запорожская АЭС неоднократно обстреливалась украинской стороной тяжелыми видами вооружений. Гросси не делал этого и после того, когда он собственными глазами видел пробоины в крыше одного из вспомогательных зданий станции от украинского снаряда, а также осмотрел часть украинской ракеты, разорвавшейся на ее территории во время своего посещения ЗАЭС в сентябре прошлого года.

Странно, но и Генеральный секретарь ООН Антониу Гутерреш, побывавший в Киеве в марте этого года, искусственно связал выполнение «черноморской сделки» об условиях поставки российского продовольствия и химических удобрений нуждающимся странам, заключенную между Россией, Турцией, Украиной и ООН в июле прошлого года, с «полной демилитаризацией» (?) ЗАЭС российской стороной. Словно это взаимосвязанные или однотипные проблемы. Отнюдь. Они не имеют никакой логической связи.

Во-вторых, согласно краткому служебному резюме, приложенному к их статье Мэтью Мпоке Бигг и Марк Сантора проецируют себя как состоявшиеся профессионалы на ниве журналистики. Но их статья, опубликованная 9 марта в «Нью-Йорк Таймс» на тему обеспечения безопасности ЗАЭС, доказывает, что они не могут претендовать на это, поскольку заведомо искажают действительность и многочисленные очевидные и аккуратно задокументированные факты.

 

Приложение

Основные случаи обстрелов ЗАЭС со стороны Украины

(А) в 2022 году были зафиксированы следующие обстрелы со стороны Украины:

5-7 августа несколько взрывов в районе электрощитовой ЗАЭС привели к отключению силового трансформатора и двух резервных трансформаторов; пострадал один реакторный блок; сработала система аварийной защиты пострадавшего блока, для обеспечения энергоснабжения этого блока были введены в эксплуатацию дизель-генераторы; возник пожар на азотно-кислородной станции, быстро потушенный пожарными; ранение получил сотрудник, работавший в зоне хранилища отработавшего ядерного топлива; имелись повреждения стен, крыши и окон в зоне хранилища отработавшего ядерного топлива, а также кабелей связи, являющихся частью системы обеспечения радиационного контроля, с возможным негативным влиянием на функционирование трех датчиков радиационного контроля.

20-21 августа в результате обстрела была повреждена инфраструктура ЗАЭС, включая пешеходные дорожки, используемые персоналом станции для доступа к энергоблокам, а также лабораторные помещения.

4 сентября Украина обстреляла верхнюю часть специального здания № 1 ЗАЭС, в котором хранится свежее ядерное топливо и хранилище твердых радиоактивных отходов, железную и автомобильную дороги перед реакторным блоком № 2, а также надземную пешеходную дорожку для персонала, сооруженную между блоками № 2 и № 3.

21 сентября украинская сторона обстреляла водоемы охлаждения 5-го и 6-го энергоблоков ЗАЭС, повредила одну трубу и вывела часть системы орошения из строя; кроме того, в результате обстрела была повреждена внутренняя высоковольтная ЛЭП 6-го энергоблока, что вызвало запуск его дизель-генераторов, прежде чем он был переключен на резервную ЛЭП.

11 сентября был остановлен последний действующий энергоблокблок № 6.

19 октября в результате украинского обстрела распределительного пункта теплоэлектростанции была отключена основная внутренняя резервная линия электропередачи ЗАЭС.

30 октября в результате взрыва украинской мины был поврежден внутренний высоковольтный источник питания четвертого энергоблока ЗАЭС, который был переведен на резервные линии электроснабжения.

19 ноября в результате украинского обстрела пострадали водоемы охлаждения и караульное помещение ЗАЭС.

 

(B) в 2023 году были зафиксированы следующие обстрелы со стороны Украины:

26 января она снизила до 14,6 м уровень воды в Каховском водохранилище, которое обеспечивает охлаждающей водой ЗАЭС. Для этого ВСУ несколько раз обстреляли дамбы, расположенные выше по течению Днепра до ЗАЭС, и перекрыли подачу воды к ней.

8 февраля Украина снизила уровень воды в Каховском водохранилище до 13,9 м.

15 февраля она снизила уровень воды в Каховском водохранилище до 13,98 м.

8 марта Украина обстреляла город Энергодар, где проживает обслуживающий персонал ЗАЭС, и где расположена теплоэлектростанция.

9 марта Украина отключила последнюю ЛЭП, которую контролирует Киев, питающую ЗАЭС.

Автор: В.П. Козин – член-корреспондент РАВН
 

 

Защита Союзного государства будет усилена мощнейшим оружием

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “Нацчпоп” на канале “Россия 24”

Москва передала Минску оперативно-тактический ракетный комплекс "Искандер-М". При необходимости он может использовать не только обычные ракеты, но и ядерные. По словам главы Минобороны России, белорусские расчеты уже начали обучаться работе с такими ОТРК.

Эфир от 4 апреля 2023г.

 

Зеленский потребовал от НАТО гарантий безопасности для Украины. Военная помощь ВСУ

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “Акцент дня”

Владимир Зеленский на саммите НАТО в Мадриде призвал альянс найти Украине место в общем пространстве безопасности и потребовал военную помощь в виде современного противоракетного и противовоздушного вооружения. Украинский лидер сравнил политику НАТО со старыми турникетами киевского метро: "Они открыты, а когда ты подходишь, турникеты закрываются, пока не заплатишь". По его мнению, Украина достаточно заплатила, чтобы стать членом альянса. Новая стратегическая концепция НАТО впервые будет включать в себя защиту "суверенитета и территориальной целостности" стран-союзников в качестве основной миссии организации.

 

Зеркальный ответ: Россия выходит из ДРСМД

Владимир Путин внёс в Госдуму законопроект о приостановке действия Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности. В случае необходимости Президент России сможет возобновить исполнения ДРСМД.
 
К каким последствиям может привести это решение, разбираем прямом эфире Радио Sputnik вместе с  гостем,  членом-корреспондентом Академии военных наук РФ, ведущим экспертом Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимиром Козиным.
 
Эфир от 29 мая 2019г.

И Россия, и весь мир должны знать о преступлениях ВСУ в ЛНР

По сообщению Представительства ЛНР в Совместном центре по контролю и координации (СЦКК), решением командования Второго Армейского корпуса с 1 июня 2023 года названное представительство прекратило передачу сообщений о последствиях военных преступлений Украины в виде убийств мирных граждан республики, разрушения объектов ее энергетики и социальной инфраструктуры.

Тем месяцем, когда Представительство ЛНР в СЦКК в последний раз сообщило о людских жертвах и материальных разрушениях, которые были зафиксированы в республике в результате варварских преступлений ВСУ, стал май этого года.

За этот период времени в ЛНР были зафиксированы 18 обстрелов территории республики со стороны вооружённых формирований Украины по 15 населенным пунктам, в ходе которых противник применил крылатые ракеты Storm Shadow (5 ракет), РСЗО HIMARS (33 ракеты), а также 155-мм артиллерийские снаряды. Жертвами этой агрессии ВФУ за вышеуказанный период стали 70 мирных жителей, из которых 14 человек погибло и 56 получили ранения, среди которых оказалось семь детей. Было разрушено и повреждено 105 домостроений и 29 объектов гражданской инфраструктуры.

Решение о прекращении информирования российской        и между-народной общественности о подобных преступных украинских акциях может оказаться обоснованным в весьма узком смысле – только по той причине, что Украина полностью дискредитировала работу СЦКК и его мандат. Этот «совместный центр» фактически перестал существовать, когда в декабре 2017 года российские военнослужащие в названной совместной российско-украинской структуре, созданной в сентябре 2014 года, покинули Донбасс. В МИД России тогда заявили, что выполнение своих обязанностей офицерами Вооруженных Сил России стало «невозможным из-за действий украинской стороны».

Следует уточнить, что ДНР до сих пор продолжает размещать свои сообщения о преступлениях украинской военщины на территории республики от имени Представительства ДНР в СЦКК, причем практически на ежедневной основе.

Полное же прекращение со стороны ЛНР информирования российской и международной общественности о негативных последствиях украинско-натовской агрессии против России представляется неправильным. Оно не может быть оправдано никакими причинами или соображениями. Подобные сообщения были и остаются востребованными и в России, и в зарубежных странах, поскольку в них на конкретных статистических данных показаны реальные военные преступления ВСУ и НАТО в этой республике. Весь земной шар должен знать о том, что бездарная украинская армия воюет с мирными гражданами.

Очевидно, что из сказанного вытекают два практических предложения.

Первое. Позитивное решение данного вопроса, то есть полное восстановление передачи таких сообщений в ЛНР, не представляется каким-то сложным актом. Такая практика вполне могла бы быть продолжена от имени другого органа указанной республики, например, от имени Правительства или Следственного комитета ЛНР. Коль скоро в Луганске испытывают глубокое отвращение к недействующему СЦКК.

Второе. А почему бы руководству ДНР не закрыть свое Представительство в недействующем СЦКК, а вместо этого создать схожую информационно-разъяснительную структуру при каком-то ином республиканском органе?

Автор: В.П. Козин, член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН

 

И снова «звездные войны»?

США и другие страны-члены НАТО всегда создавали и по-прежнему создают перманентные препятствия на пути исключения космического противоборства

Студент Санкт-Петербургского Государственного Университета Дмитрий Семёнов, читающий нашу газету в интернете, прислал в редакцию вопрос с просьбой дать на него квалифицированный ответ. Сам вопрос Дмитрий предварил следующей информацией, взятой им из открытой печати: «В США аэрокосмическая компания "True Anomaly" разработала проект, грозящий вывести военное противостояние между сверхдержавами на новый уровень, а именно уровень полного взаимного уничтожения. В апреле американские космо-стартаперы представили на суд "спецов" из Пентагона и НАСА прототип автономного орбитального преследователя "Шакал" (проект JAOPV), первоначально предназначенного для поиска и ремонта фрагментов космических аппаратов на орбите Земли, но обладающего реальным потенциалом «апгрейда» и перепрограммирования на роль боевого космолета, ориентированного на отслеживание и уничтожение спутников и орбитальных станций противника. По проекту, прототип уже оборудован дорогостоящими сенсорами (радары, инфракрасные, оптические камеры и т. п.). И если при поддержке американских военных (увы, не приходится сомневаться, что она обязательно будет) всю эту ультрасовременную начинку "дошпиговать" новейшими вооружениями, такими, например, как лазерные излучатели, то США создадут реальный военный космофлот: современный и крайне опасный».

А вопрос такой: не означает ли это, что «бряцание» оружием уже в ближайшем будущем может перейти в новую фазу и «звездные войны» станут реальностью? И еще — что могут в принципе противопоставить этому Россия и Китай?

Редакция попросила подготовить ответ на это далеко не праздное письмо члена-корреспондента Академии военных наук и Академии естественных наук России, ветерана дипломатической службы Владимира Петровича Козина. Вот что он пишет…

Уважаемый Дмитрий!

По существу очередного космического проекта США, во-первых, весьма трудно проверить информацию, которую использовал автор, обозначивший себя анонимно — под явно вымышленным двойным именем «Фонцеппелин Фонцеппелин» (так указано в тексте его найденного мною в интернете эссе). Он не ссылается на источник или источники своего миниисследования, хотя средство получения информации, если она не имеет конфиденциального характера, должно указываться.

Во-вторых, «Фонцеппелин» сравнивает известную спутниковую систему «Старлинк» с новой программой, названной как «Тру эномоли», ставя на первое место по эффективности именно заявленную последнюю новацию. Но на чем основывается такой вывод?

В-третьих, признаю, что в силу своего гуманитарного образования я не в состоянии в полном объеме оценить военно-технические последствия разработки и реализации «нового» американского проекта, о котором извещает автор публикации. Тем более, что «Фонцеппелин» мало приводит конкретных деталей и подробностей на этот счет. Что же касается Вашего вопроса о перспективах военной деятельности в космическом пространстве, как указывается, в виде «бряцания оружием», которое может перейти в фазу реальных «звездных войн», то, к сожалению, подобный сценарий вполне может реализоваться по следующим причинам.

США и другие страны-члены НАТО всегда создавали и по-прежнему создают перманентные препятствия на пути исключения космического противоборства. Они отказываются от принятия обязательства о неприменении ударных видов вооружений космического базирования в космосе и из космоса в направлении объектов на земной поверхности; утверждают стратегии национальной обороны и безопасности с военно-космическим разделом и отдельные военно-космические доктрины об обеспечении военного превосходства в космическом пространстве, которое заблаговременно объявляется ими «зоной боевых действий»; создают военно-космические силы со значительными потенциалами космического, а также наземного и морского базирования в качестве самостоятельного вида национальных вооруженных сил.

Нельзя не учитывать, что на международных официальных переговорных площадках США и НАТО блокируют все международные инициативы, направленные на сохранение космического пространства в качестве зоны, в которой запрещалось бы ведение любых видов «звездных войн».

Нынешний президент Соединенных Штатов Джозеф Байден продолжает военную космическую политику, которую активно разрабатывали его предшественники на этом посту. В соответствии с двенадцатью программами использования космического пространства в военных целях Вашингтон разрабатывает шесть типов ударных космических вооружений и шесть систем управления орбитальными космическими группировками. В ближайшие годы Пентагон планирует развернуть в космосе ударные компоненты ПРО.

В Соединенных Штатах в конце декабря 2019 года были созданы Космические силы, которые призваны решать задачи обеспечения беспрепятственного использования космического пространства в целях национальной безопасности Соединенных Штатов, а также их союзников и партнеров; сдерживания агрессии и защиты американской нации, союзников и интересов Соединенных Штатов от враждебных действий в космосе и из космоса в направлении Земли, а также распространения американско-натовской военной мощи в космосе, из космоса в направлении Земли и с нее в направлении космического пространства.

Сравнение политики США и России по двум нерешенным вопросам в космическом пространстве, а именно — по предотвращению размещения оружия в космосе и по неограниченному развертыванию систем противоракетной обороны в нем, показывает, что две ведущие ядерные и космические державы придерживаются диаметрально противоположных позиций. Эти расхождения носят принципиальный характер в отношении использования космоса и его роли в процессе перехвата различных видов ракет, а также в сфере контроля за ударными космическими вооружениями в интересах обеспечения стратегической стабильности — одновременно на земной поверхности в самом широком смысле и в космическом пространстве в целом.

В XXI веке человечество может стать свидетелем двух новых гонок вооружений, которые дополнят продолжающуюся гонку ракетноядерных вооружений: гонок противоракетных и ударных космических вооружений. В частности, применительно к космосу это может оказаться реальностью, если Россия и США, а также другие космические державы не примут и не осуществят конкретные и взаимоприемлемые меры, поддерживаемые мировым сообществом, по сохранению космоса мирной средой для дальнейшего исследования и использования. Космическое пространство должно оставаться свободным от любого потенциального конфликта. Оно должно быть признано зоной, свободной от вооруженных конфликтов и ударных вооружений любого вида и предназначения.

Вы также поставили вопрос: что могут в принципе Российская Федерация и КНР противопоставить попыткам превратить космос в зону военной конфронтации?

Вполне очевидно: нашим двум дружественным ракетно-ядерным и космическим державам следует продолжать активную политико-дипломатическую работу по реализации российско-китайского предложения о предотвращении гонки вооружений в космосе и неразмещении в нем первыми оружия любого вида: как противоспутниковых систем, так и других видов ударных космических вооружений. Но если ситуация на названных направлениях в ближайшие годы не изменится в лучшую сторону, то Москве и Пекину, как представляется, придется создавать совместные российско-китайские системы эффективного военно-технического противодействия комбинированным угрозам космического базирования, а также наземным средствам управления военными космическими потенциалами.

Источник: “Наша Смоленка”

 

Исполнители теракта двигались в сторону Украины, все они задержаны - Путин

Владимир Путин 23 марта обратился к россиянам после теракта в "Крокус сити холле" в Московской области. Президент России заявил, преступники пытались скрыться и двигались в сторону Украины, где, по предварительным данным, для них с украинской стороны было подготовлено окно для перехода госграниц

Путин сообщил, что всего было задержано 11 человек. При этом все четверо непосредственных исполнителей теракта, все те, кто стрелял, убивал людей, найдены и задержаны.

Федеральная служба безопасности России и другие правоохранительные органы работают над выявлением всей базы террористов — тех, кто обеспечил их транспортом, намечал пути отхода от места преступления, готовил схроны, тайники с оружием и боеприпасами, сообщил Путин.

В своем обращении Президент России заявил, что Россия столкнулась не просто с цинично спланированным терактом, а с организованным массовым убийством мирных граждан России.

"Мы установим и покараем каждого, кто стоит за спиной террористов, кто готовил это злодеяние, этот удар по России, по нашему народу" - сказал Президент.

Все исполнители, организаторы и заказчики теракта понесут справедливое и неизбежное наказание, кем бы они ни были, кто бы их ни направлял, подчеркнул Путин.

В пятницу 22 марта в концертном зале "Крокус Сити Холл" в Красногорске произошел теракт. По предварительной информации, как минимум три человека в камуфляже открыли огонь, позднее прогремели взрывы, после чего начался пожар, который почти полностью уничтожил верхние этажи здания.

Количество погибших в результате теракта в "Крокус Сити Холл" в Красногорске на данный момент составляет 133 человека, но скорее всего число жертв возрастет. Об этом сообщили 23 марта в пресс-службе СК России.

Расследование уголовного дела о теракте в "Крокус Сити Холле" находится на личном контроле Председателя Следственного комитета России А.И. Бастрыкина.

23 марта в беседе с журналистами издания Украина.ру политолог, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин предложил, чтобы Россия безотлагательно отменила свой мораторий на смертную казнь в отношении лиц, которые доказательно, в судебном порядке обвинены в совершении терактов на территории РФ или за ее пределами, начиная с 22 марта 2024 года, например, сроком на один-три года.

Источник: Украина.ру

 

 

 

 

 

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К 75-летию окончания Второй мировой войны: дистанционная конференция

25 апреля 2020 года состоялась дистанционная Международная конференция под девизом «Давайте избавимся от вируса войны», посвященная 75–летию освобождения Италии и окончанию Второй мировой войны. Ее организаторами выступили Комитет «Нет войне, нет НАТО», одним из ее основателей был итальянский журналист Джульетто Кьеза, а также НКО «Global Research» и Центр исследований проблем глобализации (Канада). 

Ряд ораторов, в том числе из Италии и ряда других европейских стран, Австралии, Канады и США и России, рассмотрели фундаментальные причины, по которым военные действия никогда не прекращались с 1945 года: за вторым мировым конфликтом последовала холодная война, затем непрерывная серия региональных конфликтов и возвращение к ситуации, аналогичной холодной войне, а также повысился риск возникновения ядерного конфликта.

Экономисты Мишель Чоссудовский (Канада), Питер Кениг (Швейцария) и Гвидо Гросси объяснили, как мощные экономические и финансовые силы используют кризис коронавируса, чтобы захватить национальные экономики, и что нужно сделать, чтобы предотвратить это.

Дэвид Свенсон (директор World Beyond War, США), экономист Тим Андерсон (Австралия), фотожурналист Джорджо Бьянки и историк Франко Кардини говорили о прошлых и нынешних войнах, действующих в интересах одних и тех же могущественных сил.

Эссеист Диана Джонстон (США), секретарь кампании за ядерное разоружение Кейт Хадсон (Великобритания) рассмотрели механизмы, повышающие вероятность катастрофического ядерного конфликта.

В конференции принял участие ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ Владимир Козин, который подготовил и распространил среди участников мероприятия доклад на тему: «AVOIDING NUCLEAR ARMAGEDDON: THE NUCLEAR NATIONS MUST START MEANINGFUL DIALOGUE ON CURBING NUCLEAR ARMS RACE AND ELIMINATE NUCLEAR ARSENALS BY 2045» (3300 слов). 

Джон Шиптон (Австралия), отец Джулиана Ассанжа, и бывший полковник армии США Энн Райт (США) обрисовали драматическую ситуацию с журналистом Джулианом Ассанжем, основателем WikiLeaks, задержанного в Лондоне под угрозой экстрадиции в США, где он может быть приговорен к пожизненному сроку или даже к смертной казни.

 

К вопросу: что движет внешней политикой России? Идеология или прагматизм?

Разумеется, вопрос не праздный. Он всплывал ранее. Возникает он и сегодня.

В последнее время на него краткий и однозначный ответ был дан в двух примечательных заявлениях на высшем и высоком уровне. Такой ответ содержался в выступлении Президента России В.В. Путина на заседании Валдайского дискуссионного клуба 21 октября и в выступлении министра иностранных дел С.В. Лаврова на 29-й Ассамблее СВОП 2 октября этого года.

Разъяснение было простое: внешняя политика России строится не на принципах идеологии, как это было раньше, а на принципах прагматизма.

В последнее понятие входят:

1) принцип первостепенной защиты национальных интересов России, ее союзников и друзей;

2) принцип реального восприятия международной обстановки и внешней политики зарубежных государств;

3) адекватная оценка внешних угроз военно-политического характера;

4) принцип сохранения баланса интересов и выход на баланс разумных компромиссов;

5) отказ от предлагаемого Соединенными Штатами и НАТО в целом выборочного сокращения одних видов наступательных и оборонительных вооружений при сохранении других, на которые не распространяются международные договоренности.

В частности, руководитель российской внешнеполитической службы в названном выступлении в СВОП прямо заявил: «… идеологизация внешней политики – это проигрышный путь»; «В отличие от США … у нас нет идеологических пристрастий, табу в отношениях с зарубежными партнерами. Это является нашим методологическим, практическим преимуществом… ».

В силу сказанного полемика по вопросу: «Что лежит в основе нынешней российской внешней политики: идеология или прагматизм?» представляется излишней и надуманной.

Автор: В.П. Козин

К космическим войнам под звёздно-полосатым флагом

Пентагон стремится обеспечить своё доминирование в околоземном пространстве

Стремясь любой ценой сохранить доминирование в мире, США предпринимают усилия по укреплению своей военной мощи, в том числе в наращивании потенциала космических сил. В чём проявляются ключевые особенности американской военно-космической политики и что в этом плане следует ждать от второго прихода в Белый дом Дональда Трампа? Об этом идёт речь в интервью, которое дал «Красной звезде» известный политолог, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир КОЗИН, автор монографий «Космические силы США: их ключевые задачи и будущие потенциалы» (2022 г.) и «Основные военные стратегии США: анализ и последствия их применения» (2023 г.)

– Владимир Петрович, на днях издание Defense News в своём материале, посвящённом пятилетию создания космических сил США, назвало их «любимым дитём» Трампа…

– В этом нет ничего удивительного, так как именно он и создал эти силы. Хочу напомнить, что с началом своего первого президентства Трамп активно повёл речь о необходимости создания специализированных войск для ведения боевых действий в космическом пространстве. А в 2018 году эти мысли обрели конкретное выражение в космической стратегии США. «Моя новая национальная стратегия по космосу признаёт, что в космическом пространстве могут осуществляться боевые действия, как и на земле, в воздухе и в воде. У нас даже могут быть космические силы», – сказал он тогда, комментируя принятие документа.

И уже через год, а точнее 18 декабря 2019 года, Трамп издал указ о создании командования американских космических сил, об учреждении которых официально объявил 20 декабря, назвав этот день важнейшей вехой в истории страны. «Сегодня мы официально представляем новую ветвь наших вооружённых сил, которая называется космические силы. Это очень важный момент!» – сказал Трамп при этом.

В последующем, до конца своего первого срока пребывания в Белом доме он неоднократно подчёркивал, что космические силы США будут опираться на доктрину сдерживания и стремиться к одностороннему доминированию в околоземном пространстве, которое будет зоной ведения боевых действий. При этом он не ограничивался только словами, но и принимал конкретные решения по развитию космических сил и милитаризации космоса.

– А как отреагировали на планы милитаризации околоземного пространства демократы, сменившие республиканцев на олимпе американской власти?

– В этом плане противоречий между демократами и республиканцами нет. Две ведущие партии США сходятся во мнении, что Америка должна доминировать в космическом пространстве, в том числе в военном отношении. И Джо Байден не только повторил максиму Трампа о необходимости обеспечения доминирования американских вооружённых сил в космосе, но и пошёл дальше своего предшественника в плане наращивания потенциала космических сил.

Например, что касается их конкретных задач, то они уточнены и закреплены в новой версии «Директивы министерства обороны 3100.10» от 15 октября 2024 года. В ней сказано, что перед космическими силами стоят три основные задачи, к выполнению которых они должны быть соответствующим образом организованы, обучены и оснащены. Это обеспечение свободы действий Соединённых Штатов в космосе, из космоса и за пределами космоса; проведение космических операций; защита интересов США в космосе.

При Байдене США значительно расширили и взаимодействие с союзниками по НАТО в космической сфере. В июне 2023 года Байден утвердил «Руководство по космической безопасности», в котором Соединённым Штатам предписывается расширить интеграцию с союзниками и партнёрами в области военно-космической деятельности, проведения совместных операций в космическом пространстве, а также в сфере обмена информацией.

– Нетрудно предположить, чем обосновывается вся эта политика…

– Если вы имеете в виду её антироссийскую и антикитайскую направленность, то правы. И адми¬нистрация Трампа, и в большей степени Байдена объясняла необходимость милитаризации космоса, как и в целом политику по сохранению доминирования США на мировой арене наличием неких вызовов и угроз американским интересам, якобы исходящих от России и Китая.

При этом США пытались даже привлечь на свою сторону мировое сообщество. Так, в 2022 году американской стороне удалось протолкнуть на сессии Генассамблеи ООН проект резолюции, которая призывала страны прекратить испытания противоспутникового оружия «прямого старта» под предлогом необходимости недопущения образования большого количества обломков, которые угрожают безопасности других спутников. При этом американская сторона запамятовала, что она в одностороннем порядке прекратила переговоры с СССР по противоспутниковым системам, которые велись в семидесятые годы прошлого столетия.

– И что собой представляют космические силы США в настоящее время?

– Следует сказать, что за пять лет, прошедших с момента их создания, космические войска превратились, по сути, в ещё один, шестой вид американских вооружённых сил, хотя официально они пока ещё находятся под командованием министерства ВВС США. По плану полностью независимыми со своим министерством космические силы должны стать к 2026 году. Структурно они состоят из главного штаба и трёх полевых командований: командования космических операций (SOC), отвечающего за ведение боевых действий в космосе; командования космических систем (SSC), занимающегося разработкой и приобретением космических систем; командования боевой подготовки (STARCOM), отвечающего за обучение личного состава. Кстати, по данным информагентств, на декабрь 2024 года численность космических сил США составляла порядка 13 тысяч человек, включая гражданский персонал.

Созданы также подразделения для ведения разведки, орбитальных боевых действий, космических электромагнитных войн, кибернетических операций и других действий как в космосе, так и из космоса. Так, например, в 2020 году была создана 22-я эскадрилья космических операций, которая находится на базе Шривер в Колорадо и отвечает за управление сетью спутников; а в 2023 году – 75-я эскадрилья разведки, наблюдения и рекогносцировки, которая расположилась на базе Петерсон в том же штате и предназначена для обнаружения, уничтожения или нарушения работы спутников противника, наземных станций поддержки и сигналов управления.

Готовятся в США и к размещению американских военнослужащих в космосе. По сути, речь об этом идёт практически с момента создания космических сил. В частности, ещё в 2020 году глава командования космических операций генерал-майор Джон Шоу заявлял, что нахождение в околоземном пространстве военнослужащих значительно бы повысило эффективность ведения боевых действий в космосе и из космоса. А в последнее время эта тема звучит из уст американских официальных лиц всё чаще.

В планах командования космических сил и проведение уже в этом году первого боевого учения на орбите. По словам заместителя начальника космических операций генерал-лейтенанта Майкла Гетлейна, оно пройдёт в ходе учений по быстрому реагированию космических сил США под кодовым названием Victus Haze. Согласно разработанному сценарию, сначала на орбиту будет запущен аппарат «Шакал» от компании True Anomaly, чтобы сыграть роль «агрессора». Затем компания Rocket Lab по приказу космических сил запустит свой безымянный аппарат. Находясь на орбите, он воспользуется своими двигателями, чтобы приблизиться к «Шакалу» и совершить серию сложных манёвров вокруг него для «проверки» его оборудования. Если операция пройдёт без сучка и задоринки, то два спутника поменяются ролями и повторят манёвры. Также будут отработаны действия по уничтожению одного из спутников.

– Не приходится сомневаться, что всё это требует значительного финансирования…

– Совершенно верно. Бюджет космических сил за время их существования практически удвоился. Если в 2021 году он составлял 15,3 миллиарда долларов, то 2024-м – уже 30 миллиардов. Значительная часть ассигнований уходит на разработки и закупки спутников раннего предупреждения о ракетном нападении, а также на финансирование их запусков и полётов. В абсолютных цифрах на 2025 год на эти цели было выделено почти 23 миллиарда долларов. Ещё около 2,3 миллиарда долларов предоставлено для финансирования создания группировки низко- и среднеорбитальных спутников слежения за ракетными системами.

На этот год бюджет, по сути, остался прежним – 29,4 миллиарда долларов. При этом министр ВВС Фрэнк Кендалл считает, что оно далеко не оптимально. «Со временем этот бюджет должен будет удвоиться или утроиться, чтобы мы могли финансировать то, что нам действительно нужно. Кому-то придётся принять решение о том, стоит ли увеличить бюджет в целом или пойти на некоторые внутренние компромиссы», – сказал он при этом.

В этой связи хотелось бы заметить, что многие свои задачи космические силы решают через сотрудничество с коммерческими структурами. Так, в январе – июне 2024 года американские космические ракеты стартовали 78 раз. Основная доля (75 пусков, или 96 процентов) приходится на космические старты частных компаний SpaceX (67 пусков) и Rocket Lab (8 пусков).

Использование растущих гражданских возможностей позволяет командованию, с одной стороны, сокращать затраты на собственные системы и космические услуги. С другой стороны, рост конкуренции позволяет сбивать цену, а также повышать качество и разнообразие предложений подрядчиков. В свою очередь, коммерческие структуры исходят из того, что за каждый килограмм полезной нагрузки военные платят куда больше гражданских заказчиков, и это де-факто становится ещё и каналом скрытого субсидирования. Разрабатывая оригинальные технологические решения, будучи куда более гибкими и адаптивными, и вынужденно конкурируя, в том числе по цене, коммерческие структуры постепенно становятся частью пула подрядчиков Пентагона.

Комментируя этот факт, в космических силах признают, что они «извлекают выгоду из того, что происходит в коммерческом мире, потому что ряд коммерческих компаний по коммерческим причинам переходят на менее дорогие конструкции». Это означает «более распространённые, более доступные архитектуры, которые также более устойчивы».

– А что означает для космических сил второй приход в Белый дом Дональда Трампа?

– Надо сказать, что Трамп не забывал своё «любимое дитя» и время от времени высказывался по поводу его развития. В частности, в августе прошлого года он назвал их создание «большим событием» и «одним из моих самых больших достижений в период моего первого срока». При этом пообещал с приходом в Белый дом подписать «исторический закон» о создании космической национальной гвардии в качестве основного боевого резерва космических сил США.

Нельзя также не заметить, что к числу его ближайших советников относится Илон Маск, генеральный директор SpaceX, которая является одним из ведущих поставщиков услуг по запуску военных космических аппаратов для космических сил. Спутники связи Starlink и Starshield этой компании также пользуются большим спросом у коммерческих и государственных заказчиков, в том числе у военных. Поскольку Маск возглавит новое правительственное агентство по повышению эффективности, то может таким образом повлиять на приоритеты космической политики Белого дома. Широкое взаимодействие Трампа с Маском усилит также тесное сотрудничество гражданской сферы деятельности в космосе с военно-космической составляющей под ширмой развития «космической экономики».

Кроме того, на пост главы НАСА Трамп намерен назначить миллиардера и астронавта в частных космических полётах Джареда Айзекмана. Тот уже отметился заявлением о том, что американские военнослужащие понадобятся для охраны космонавтов по мере увеличения присутствия США на околоземной орбите. «Если американцы присутствуют на околоземной орбите, то должны быть люди, которые бы их охраняли… Мы собираемся отправиться на Луну, а это означает, что нам понадобятся стражи, которые за нами будут присматривать… Я думаю, что это неизбежно», – заявил при этом Айзекман.

– Известно также, что в команде Трампа был разработан «Проект-2025» – 900-страничный консервативный план для второй его администрации…

– От некоторых положений документа Трамп дистанцировался, однако относительно содержащихся в нём положений о космических силах ничего не сказал. Между прочим, «Проект-2025» призывает Пентагон переориентировать космические силы с преимущественно оборонительной на наступательную роль.

При этом подчёркивается, что космические силы должны восстановить свои наступательные возможности, чтобы обеспечить благоприятный баланс сил, эффективно управлять всем спектром сдерживания и значительно усложнить планы противника по успешному первому удару по космическим объектам США. Как считается, такой подход может привести к увеличению инвестиций в противоспутниковые системы, большая часть которых финансируется за счёт секретного бюджета космических сил, составляющего примерно шесть миллиардов долларов.

А взять намерение Трампа присоединить к США Гренландию, которая принадлежит Дании. По его словам, сделать это он хочет исходя из экономических соображений. Однако думается, что не только это подталкивает его пойти на такой шаг. Нельзя не обратить внимания, что в 2023 году Пентагон переименовал находящуюся в Гренландии военно-воздушную базу США Туле в космическую военную базу Питуффик, которую американцы предлагают произносить как Бидуффик. На эту базу возложены четыре ключевые задачи: раннее предупреждение о ракетном нападении, обеспечение ПРО и наблюдения за космическим пространством, а также предоставление ВПП для тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков СНВ США. В результате эта база стала представлять собой комбинированный стратегический плацдарм американских вооружённых сил передового базирования, направленный в том числе против России.

– И какой, Владимир Петрович, из всего этого напрашивается вывод?

– Избранный президент США будет и дальше развивать космические силы этой ядерной сверхдержавы. При этом его окружение, амбициозное в сфере геополитики, вряд ли будет стремиться к решению проблемы обеспечения контроля над вооружениями в космосе. Одновременно будут создаваться политико-юридические препятствия для России и КНР для обеспечения баланса сил с Соединёнными Штатами в космическом пространстве. Таковы, на мой взгляд, нынешние политические реалии.

Беседовал Владимир Кузарь.  Источник:  «Красная звезда» http://redstar.ru

К оценке учений «Запад-2021»

Военные учения «Запад-2021», проведенные в сентябре 2021 года Вооруженными силами Российской Федерации и Республики Беларусь, показали высокую выучку и эффективную слаженность частей и подразделений двух дружественных государств. Состоявшиеся плановые учения подтвердили их способность реализовывать не только тактические, но и стратегические задачи долговременного характера в условиях ведения многовидовых наступательных операций условным противником, а также адекватный уровень оперативного взаимодействия вооруженных сил Российской Федерации и Республики Беларусь с охватом их больших сухопутных, морских, а также  воздушных пространств.

В ходе проведенных учений были впервые использованы новые образцы вооружений и военной техники, в том числе созданных на основе перспективных технологий, а также отработаны способы ведения боевых действий с новыми ударными огневыми модулями, которые не практиковались ранее в российских и белорусских Вооруженных силах.

На научно-практическую основу был поставлен всесторонний анализ проведенных ими трех видов боевых действий: отражение наступления сил условного противника, действия по стабилизации обстановки и нанесение по условному противнику мощного комбинированного ответного огневого удара. Параллельно использовались элементы осложнения обстановки из опыта имевших место локальных вооруженных конфликтов и протестированы способы преодоления возникающих угроз, создаваемых условными вооруженными государственными формированиями и вооруженными негосударственными субъектами.

На основании произведенных оценок боевых действий братских войск будут сформулированы практические рекомендации о дальнейшем повышении уровня боевой подготовки и практического применения вооруженных сил сторон в случае возникновения реальных угроз суверенитету и территориальной целостности Российской Федерации и Республики Беларусь как в настоящее время, так и в будущем.

Подобные военные учения должны быть продолжены нашими двумя соседними и дружественными государствами в ближайшей и более отдаленной перспективе в интересах укрепления их национальной безопасности и стабильности на европейском континенте.

Автор: В.П. Козин

К позиции Пакистана об агрессии Украины и НАТО против России

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Член-корреспондент РАВН, ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ В.П. Козин принял дистанционное участие в рецензировании монографии пакистанского профессора А. Хасан Хана  “RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS. DAWN OF A NEW WORLD ORDER?  //Islamabad (Pakistan): Institute of Policy Studies, National University of Sciences & Technology. 2023. 132 PP.
 
В своем выступлении ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ отметил как позитивные, так и негативные особенности проведенного исследования, а также предложил основные принципы политического урегулирования в этой части Европы с точки зрения национальных интересов России (тезисы его выступления отражены в прилагаемых слайдах на английском языке).
 
По его мнению, российская сторона должна дать четкую дефиницию военной акции Украины против Донбасса и России. Например, квалифицировав ее как "совместная агрессия Украины и НАТО против России", а также обозначить дату ее начала, скажем, 13 апреля 2014 года (как начало первого этапа агрессии Украины сначала против Донбасса) и 14 февраля 2022  года (как начало второго этапа этой агрессии, то есть, совершенной Украиной уже совместно с НАТО против России).
 
 
 

К чему приведет взлом системы контроля над вооружениями Вашингтоном?

Беспокоящие итоги политики США на этом направлении в 2018 году.

В 2018 году администрация Дональда Трампа продолжала целенаправленно разрушать систему международных договоров в сфере контроля над вооружениями и одновременно прилагала значительные усилия для того, чтобы в соответствии с его ключевым лозунгом «США превыше всего» и «Мир посредством силы» укрепить в глобальном масштабе национальные вооруженные силы и НАТО в целом. В декабре 45-ый президент-республиканец распорядился подготовить проект военного бюджета страны на 2020 финансовый год в размере 750 млрд. долларов, что на 25 миллиардов больше расходов, выделенных на такие же цели в текущем финансовом году.
 
За прошедший год Вашингтон продолжал негативно относиться к целому ряду международных договоров и соглашений в области контроля над вооружениями.
 
Часть из них он продолжал целенаправленно нарушать, например, Договор СНВ-3, Договор о ликвидации РСМД, Договор о нераспространении ядерного оружия и Договор по открытому небу.
 
Вашингтон продолжал нарушать такой важный двусторонний российско-американский договор, оказывающего влияние на глобальную стратегическую стабильность, как Договор СНВ-3, срок которого истекает в феврале 2021 года. Интересно, как иначе можно интерпретировать слова президента  Дональда Трампа о том, что при его подготовке Россия получила больше преимуществ, чем американская сторона? Какие ассоциации могут возникнуть у других государств, которые услышали заявление главы Объединенного комитета начальников штабов США генерала Джозефа Данфорда, который открытым текстом дал понять, что из-за «несоблюдения»  Москвой Договора о ликвидации РСМД продление Договора СНВ-3 «будет поставлено Соединенными Штатами под вопрос»?
 
На протяжении двух лет американские Стратегические ядерные силы осуществляли переоборудование части своих стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений, в том числе четырех пусковых установок на каждой из действующих 14 ПЛАРБ проекта «Огайо» и 41 тяжелого стратегического бомбардировщика «В-52Н», в одностороннем порядке исключив их из учета по названному договору. Это дает им возможность в кратчайшие сроки нарастить потенциал своих стратегических наступательных ядерных сил,  увеличив количество боезарядов более чем на 1200 единиц.
 
Наибольшим нарушениям с американской стороны подвергался Договор о ликвидации РСМД. В общей сложности с учетом данных, сообщенных в пресс-релизах Управления по ПРО Пентагона, за последние 17 лет Соединенные Штаты 96 раз нарушили этот договорный акт, когда при проверке эффективности своего национального противоракетного «щита» они использовали в качестве перехватываемых ракет-мишеней баллистические и крылатые ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, запрещенные названным договором. В данном контексте учитывается испытание, проведенное американскими ВМС в Тихом океане 11 декабря прошлого года, когда средствами противоракетного «щита» ими успешно была перехвачена ракета «средней дальности». 
 
Столь внушительное количество нарушений Соединенными Штатами ДРСМД за указанный период времени является весьма тревожным фактом, говорящим о том, что они фактически уже давно вышли из этой договоренности, по-прежнему сохраняющей свою актуальность и перспективное значение. В Пентагоне открыто говорят о продолжении подобных испытаний в наступившем году. Так, об этом прямо заявил в Конгрессе начальник Управления по ПРО Министерства обороны США генерал-лейтенант Сэм Гривс, назвавший цифру в 12 новых испытаний с использованием ракет-перехватчиков американской противоракетной системы, которые будут проведены в наступившем году. Стало быть, подобные нарушения Договора о ликвидации РСМД американской стороной будут проложены.
 
Эти факты являются не единственным подтверждением негативного отношения Вашингтона к ДРСМД. В декабре прошлого года американская делегация в ООН и ее союзники по НАТО проголосовали против принятия проекта резолюции Генеральной Ассамблеи, внесенной в поддержку названного договорного акта. Подобная обструкционистская позиция также свидетельствует о неискренности Вашингтона, который требует от Москвы его соблюдения, а на самом деле и фактически, и политически сам не намерен выполнять его. 
 
Сохраняя на европейском континенте свои тактические ядерные средства, Соединенные Штаты продолжали нарушать первую статью ДНЯО, которая запрещает ядерным государствам размещать ядерное оружие на территории неядерных стран.
 
Вашингтон необоснованно ввел пространственные ограничения на выполнение им Договора по открытому небу, посчитав целесообразным припрятать от российских авиационных инспекционных групп свои модернизированные центры ПРО на Аляске и Гавайских островах.
 
Некоторые немаловажные договоренности, например, адаптированный Договор об обычных вооруженных силах и Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний, США вообще отказались ратифицировать.
 
Нынешняя американская администрация разорвала в одностороннем порядке Венское соглашение по иранской ядерной программе.
 
Вашингтон не торопится полностью ликвидировать химическое оружие в соответствии с глобальной Конвенцией о его запрещении.
 
Белый дом не стал обсуждать проекты двух международных договоров: Договора о европейской безопасности и Договора о предотвращении размещения оружия в космическом пространстве.
 
Вашингтон в целом отказался предметно рассматривать с Москвой конкретные меры, направленные на укрепление стратегической стабильности, в основном выпячивая решение только двух особо интересующих его проблемы: возможность воссоздания ядерного оружия и средств его доставки Ираном и усовершенствование ракетно-ядерных систем Северной Кореей. За истекший период времени Соединенные Штаты не провели с заинтересованными странами никаких официальных переговоров, направленных на решение отдельных практически актуальных проблем в сфере контроля над вооружениями, ограничившись лишь консультациями и встречами экспертов, на которых хотя и происходил обмен мнениями, но не вырабатывались проекты каких-то договоров или соглашений на названном направлении.
 
В то же самое время нынешнее американское военно-политическое руководство продолжало претворять в жизнь ранее утвержденные программы по модернизации стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений и средств их доставки, а также реализовывало решения, направленные на создание принципиально новой стратегической ядерной триады с полной заменой всех трех компонентов доставки ядерного оружия стратегического назначения.
 
Несмотря на возражения Конгресса, Дональд Трамп сохранил за собой исключительное право инициативного применения ядерного оружия под многочисленными предлогами, что уже вызвало озабоченность сразу в двух ключевых партиях страны – не только оппозиционной Демократической, но и правящей Республиканской.
 
Одобренная 45-ым президентом США новая амбициозная ядерная стратегия предусматривает понижение порога применения ядерного оружия за счет повышения списка оснований для его использования: в ней зафиксировано 14 подобных случаев против 6, которые были отражены в аналогичной стратегии его предшественника Барака Обамы. В обновленной в начале 2018 года американской ядерной установке предусмотрена и возможность применения ядерных боезарядов малой мощности, то есть с боезарядом от 5 килотонн и ниже.
 
Утвержденная в прошлом году стратегия национальной обороны США имеет также наступательный характер и несет в себе антироссийскую и антикитайскую направленность.
 
В августе ушедшего года военное руководство США обнародовало принципиальные основы Космических сил страны и функциональные особенности объединенного Космического командования, подчеркнув при этом стремление доминировать в космосе и иметь в этой среде полную свободу действий.
 
В 2018 году Соединенные Штаты уделяли повышенное внимание развитию глобальной противоракетной инфраструктуры – как самостоятельно, так и во взаимодействии со своими союзниками в Европе и Азии. Расходы на эти цели администрации Дональда Трампа превысили среднегодовой показатель периода президентства Барака Обамы в полтора раза.
 
Состоявшийся в июле 2018 года брюссельский саммит НАТО под давлением нынешнего хозяина Белого дома принял решение о необходимости доведения уровня военных расходов всех государств-членов НАТО до двух процентов в год от уровня ВВП, но пока не проштамповал его требование увеличить этот показатель до четырех процентов от названного показателя. Североатлантический союз создал два новых командования: морское на территории США и логистическое, расположенное в ФРГ, которые призваны координировать стратегические переброски вооруженных сил альянса на европейский и азиатский континенты в сжатые сроки.
 
Резко возросло количество военных учений и маневров стран альянса «трансатлантической солидарности», а также масштабы задействованных в них сил и средств, вблизи рубежей России и других государств ОДКБ.
 
В ушедшем году Соединенные Штаты практически сохранили в неизменном виде свою широко разветвленную базовую инфраструктуру, которая, по данным Пентагона, включала в себя в общей сложности 4,7 тысяч военных объектов различного назначения.
 
В январе наступившего года российский МИД высказался за проведение «содержательного» диалога по контролю над вооружениями с американскими контрагентами. Но сможет ли Вашингтон преодолеть столь неподъемный груз проблем в этой сфере, накопленных по его же собственной инициативе?
 
Похоже, что прошлогодняя линия Белого дома, направленная на подрыв хрупкой системы контроля над вооружениями, создававшейся с большим трудом на протяжении многих лет, со всеми отмеченными выше особенностями перекочевывает и в наступивший 2019 год. Неужели и он не принесет столь долгожданной стабильности? Справедливости ради этот вопрос должен быть адресован и Вашингтону, и столицам государств Североатлантического союза, которые делают вид, что ничего анормального в сфере глобальной безопасности до сих пор не происходит.
 
Приходиться констатировать, что все эти действия, подрывающие международную безопасность и стабильность, США и НАТО намерены продолжать и в наступающем году. Это создаёт новую военную реальность, которую Москва вынуждена учитывать в своей политике по укреплению обороноспособности страны, развитию Вооружённых Сил России, а также в проведении внешнеполитического курса на международной арене в полной мере.
 
Автор: В.П. Козин, Источник: Инфорос 
 
Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/43167
 
 

КАРТ-БЛАНШ. Противоракетная гонка набирает темп на суше и на море

Соединенные Штаты через своих высокопоставленных представителей недавно вновь подтвердили, что будут целенаправленно продолжать свой амбициозный проект по внедрению системы ПРО в региональном и глобальном масштабах вопреки озабоченности России и ряда других государств.

Это было сделано во время закладки первого камня в фундамент противоракетного комплекса США на базе румынских ВВС в Девеселу в конце октября, где присутствовал замминистра обороны Джеймс Миллер, а также во время визита госсекретаря США Джона Керри в Варшаву 5 ноября. В этих заявлениях речь соответственно шла о строительстве противоракетных комплексов в Румынии (будет завершен в декабре 2015 года), а также в Редзиково, что на севере Польши (развертывание намечено на 2018 год). Оба посланца Вашингтона твердо обещали: сооружение этих комплексов, где в общей сложности появятся 48 самых современных американских ракет-перехватчиков «Стэндард-3», будет завершено в намеченные сроки.

В этой связи следует напомнить, что США являются единственной страной в мире, которая развертывает ударно-боевые средства ПРО наземного базирования далеко за пределами своей территории и которая располагает значительным количеством боевых кораблей, оснащенных средствами перехвата баллистических и крылатых ракет (в настоящее время 29).

США также являются единственным государством на нашей планете, которое до сих пор размещает тактическое ядерное оружие на территории иностранных государств, в данном случае в пяти европейских странах. Это оружие прикрывается названными противоракетными средствами.

Все эти американские вооружения наступательного и оборонительного характера являются средствами «передового базирования» относительно Российской Федерации, которая не располагает аналогичными системами у рубежей Соединенных Штатов.

США также являются единственным государством в мире, которое имеет наступательную ядерную стратегию, предусматривающую возможность нанесения первого упреждающего и превентивного ядерного удара с помощью стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений, в том числе по России.

Уже развернутые к настоящему времени вблизи России морские и наземные средства ПРО США создают ограниченную угрозу российским стратегическим ядерным силам, а американская информационная составляющая такой системы полностью «просматривает» территорию Российской Федерации со всех направлений.

Вот почему Москва проявляет беспокойство по поводу непрекращающегося накапливания американских противоракетных средств на европейском континенте и вокруг него, а также в других районах земного шара. Одновременно озабоченность российского руководства вызывается тем, что проблема ПРО вышла за рамки российско-американских и российско-натовских отношений, так как стала глобальной международной проблемой контроля над вооружениями после одностороннего выхода Вашингтона из Договора по ПРО 11 лет назад.

Как вспоминают американские высокопоставленные участники дискуссии, которая велась в высшем американском руководстве за несколько лет до подписания этого акта в 1972 году, в ходе нее возникали два главных вопроса.

Первый: не приведет ли неконтролируемое развитие противоракетных средств к гонке ракетно-ядерных вооружений и к созданию средств преодоления противоракетного щита?

Второй: не вызовет ли такой бесконтрольный процесс блокирования переговоров о сокращении избыточных вооружений и об ограничении масштабной военной деятельности?

Тогда в Вашингтоне победила более рациональная точка зрения: общее количество ракет-перехватчиков у США и СССР не могло превышать сначала 200 единиц (по Договору по ПРО 1972 года), а затем 100 единиц (по Протоколу к Договору по ПРО 1974 года) для каждой стороны. Указанные договоренности одновременно запрещали размещение противоракетных средств сторон за пределами их национальных территорий.

Но, увы, все это осталось в истории после одностороннего выхода Вашингтона из этих договоренностей.

Только общее количество ракет-перехватчиков США различных видов уже перевалило за тысячу единиц. В ближайшее десятилетие их должно стать гораздо больше. Если в настоящее время имеется 16 государств, располагающих либо собственными противоракетными средствами, либо приобретенными в основном у США, то в ближайшие десятилетия количество таких государств неизбежно возрастет. Тем более если сейчас вообще не существует никаких международно-правовых сдержек и противовесов, которые блокировали бы накапливание ударно-боевых противоракетных средств и их пространственное распространение ни в двустороннем, ни в многостороннем форматах.

Судя по устойчивой тенденции будущего размещения противоракетной инфраструктуры США, она в основном перейдет в Мировой океан. В частности, к 2041 году только американские ВМС будут располагать 84 боевыми кораблями, оснащенными противоракетными средствами в виде РЛС и ракет-перехватчиков. Это составит 27% от всего их корабельного состава к этому времени.

Складывается впечатление, что нынешнее американское военно-политическое руководство не осознает ни всех последствий реализации своего самого амбициозного плана о развертывании масштабной системы ПРО за все послевоенные годы, ни потенциальной гонки противоракетных вооружений, которая в практическом смысле уже началась. Не учитывают в Вашингтоне и неизбежного соревнования между наступательными видами вооружений в ядерном и неядерном оснащении, а также оборонительными средствами в виде ракет-перехватчиков.

В этих условиях крайне необходимы не только российско-американская договоренность о количественном и пространственном ограничении средств перехвата баллистических и крылатых ракет, но и международная договоренность, которая предусматривала бы одновременную сдержанность как в сфере ракетно-ядерных вооружений, так и ударно-боевых средств их перехвата.

Кроме того, Вашингтон должен отказаться от сооружения упомянутых комплексов ПРО в Румынии и Польше, размещение которых на фоне создания мощной группировки ПРО США и их союзников на Ближнем Востоке и в зоне Персидского залива, а также предстоящего увеличения на 50% общего количества ракет-перехватчиков стратегического назначения на континентальной части США просто теряет военно-стратегический и военно-политический смысл. Да и стоит ли вообще американской казне тратить огромные средства на модернизацию ядерных арсеналов и противоракетных средств в условиях огромного дефицита денежных средств?

Автор: Владимир Козин, главный советник-руководитель Группы советников директора Российского института стратегических исследований, член-корреспондент РАЕН
Источник: Независимая газета 14.11.2013

Как НАТО координирует наступление ВСУ

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин на канале медиацентра “Патриот”

В Балтийском море более 30 боевых кораблей НАТО примут участие в военно-морских учениях Baltops 23. Во время учений корабли будут швартоваться в Таллине в Минной гавани, гаванях Ванасадам, Хундипеа, Беккери-Меэрус, а также в порту Мууга.

Одновременно проходят крупнейшие учения НАТО «Air Defender 23» с 12 по 23 июня — самые большие маневры по развертыванию военно-воздушных сил с момента основания НАТО.

Тем временем стало известно о крупномасштабном наступлении ВСУ на пяти участках фронта на Южно-Донецком направлении. В атаке было задействовано шесть механизированных и два танковых батальона.

Как именно НАТО координирует наступление ВСУ? Могут ли учения НАТО стать прологом для атаки на Россию? Есть ли какие-то ограничения со стороны НАТО на вмешательство в конфликт на Украине? Если Россия фактически воюет с НАТО, нужна ли мобилизация экономики и страны в целом? Как решать проблемы приграничных территорий – обстрелы и ДРГ? Поляки убивают русских оружием НАТО – как должна реагировать Россия? Кто будет новым генсеком НАТО и имеет ли это значение? Насколько велика необходимость поставлять странам НАТО углеводороды и стратегическое сырье?

Эфир от 5 июня 2023г.

 

Как избежать перехода «точки невозврата»

В Европе обсуждают будущее континента в случае военного конфликта.

От долгих разговоров про войну человечество сегодня подошло к ней вплотную. Поэтому неудивительно, что на XII Европейском русском форуме, который состоялся на прошедшей неделе в Брюсселе, уже открыто обсуждалась возможность возникновения войны в Европе. В мероприятии, посвящённом теме «Эскалация отношений между Западом и Россией: будущее Европы в случае военного конфликта», приняли участие около 150 участников из 15 стран, в том числе группа депутатов Госдумы РФ и ряд российских экспертов.

«Актуальность темы нынешнего заседания невозможно переоценить. Безрадостное положение дел в Евроатлантике – прямое следствие узкокорыстной линии по расширению Североатлантического альянса, созданию новых разделительных линий в Европе. Сегодня США, ряд других государств Запада продолжают нагнетать напряжённость, в том числе вблизи российских границ. В результате усугубляется атмосфера стратегической неопределённости, возникают ситуации, когда «точка невозврата» может быть пройдена» — эти слова из приветствия министра иностранных дел России Сергея Лаврова организаторам и участникам форума, по сути, задали тон развернувшейся там дискуссии.

Многие выступающие отмечали, что военно-политическая обстановка в Европе находится в настоящее время «в предвоенном состоянии». При этом они не исключали возникновение войны, которая может вспыхнуть в этой части земного шара в результате либо случайных акций, либо преднамеренных провокационных действий со стороны государств, настроенных решать свои внутренние проблемы на путях усложнения отношений с сопредельными странами.

Отдельные западные ораторы выражали опасение, что ограниченное применение тактического ядерного оружия может привести к глобальной ядерной войне и катастрофическим последствиям в Европе в основном из-за отсутствия средств защиты от потенциального обмена ядерными ударами.

Как и следовало ожидать, со стороны некоторых участников звучали ставшие уже традиционными обвинения российской стороны в нарушении договора о ликвидации РСМД и подготовке к использованию тактического ядерного оружия. Отвечая на эти обвинения, российские участники привели конкретные цифровые показатели в области контроля над вооружениями, которые свидетельствуют о попытках США и их ближайших союзников по трансатлантическому альянсу сломать систему двусторонних и многосторонних договоров.

В частности, отмечалось, что между США и Россией по вине Вашингтона в области контроля над вооружениями возникло в общей сложности 15 нерешённых вопросов различной степени приоритетности. США негативно отреагировали в суммарном виде на 12 двусторонних и многосторонних договоров в этой области, то есть либо разорвали их в одностороннем порядке, либо отказались ратифицировать, либо их нарушили, либо предпочли их не замечать и не обсуждать.

Примечательно, что никто из участников встречи не возразил утверждению с российской стороны, что Вашингтон уже 95 раз нарушил договор о ликвидации РСМД, когда при тестировании эффективности системы ПРО в качестве перехватываемых ракет-мишеней Пентагон с 2001 года использовал и по-прежнему использует ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, запрещённые этим договорным актом.

Российские участники поставили вопрос о полном выводе американского тактического ядерного оружия из Европы и Азии, о ликвидации операционных баз ПРО США на территории Румынии и Польши, а также о прекращении операции ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», в которой используются самолёты двойного назначения всех трёх ядерных держав Запада.

Практические предложения других ораторов в основном сводились к разработке новых контрольных механизмов по недопущению наращивания сил общего назначения, в особенности, в приграничных зонах. Предлагались также меры, направленные на понижение степени боеготовности ракетно-ядерных средств, вывод ядерного оружия тактического назначения (при этом зоны или районы применения такой меры не обозначались), а также достижение договорённости о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе. Выдвинутые предложения были высказаны в общем виде, не детализировались и не разъяснялись, к какому государству или группе государств они были обращены.

Выражая обеспокоенность складывающейся ситуацией, многие выступающие отмечали, что, к сожалению, в настоящее время и в ближайший обозримый период антивоенные и антиядерные движения в Европе вряд ли наберут такую же мощную протестную силу, как это было 1970-1980-е годы во многих европейских государствах, где размещались американские ракетно-ядерные средства.

Главной причиной отсутствия такой общественной «волны», подчёркивалось на форуме, является более изощрённое информационно-пропагандистское давление, которое сегодня оказывается на население стран НАТО. Второй причиной стало появление в европейских государствах правых националистических партий и движений, которые ратуют за наращивание вооружений в своих странах и в рамках Североатлантического союза в целом.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: “Красная звезда”

Как отойти от края пропасти?

«Информацией к размышлению» называют доклад о положении дел в мировой политике, который с 2015 года публикуется к ежегодной Мюнхенской конференции по безопасности, считающейся одним из самых представительных международных политических форумов. На сей раз участникам конференции предстоит «размышлять» над докладом, подготовленном под названием «На край пропасти – и обратно?».

За прошедший год мир подошёл слишком близко к пропасти серьёзного конфликта, подчёркивает председатель конференции немецкий дипломат Вольфганг Ишингер, что, видимо, и определило первую часть названия доклада. Примерами конфликтных ситуаций в нём, в частности, названы резкое обострение американо-северокорейских отношений, продолжающиеся трения между НАТО и Россией, а также ряд других проблем, связанных с изменением глобального климата и обеспечением кибербезопасности.

В общей сложности в документе обозначены десять рисков, которые, по мнению его авторов, существуют в настоящее время в общемировом пространстве. В списке потенциальных рисков назван возможный выход США из ядерной сделки с Ираном, что, как справедливо считают составители документа, может привести к возрождению Тегераном «неконтролируемой» ядерной программы, а это в свою очередь станет катализатором распространения ядерного оружия в регионе и за его пределами.

Проблематике ограничения вооружений и обеспечения контроля над вооружениями посвящён специальный раздел, озаглавленный «Ядерная безопасность: вне контроля над вооружениями?» Производит странное впечатление, что этот раздел оказался весьма кратким, хотя вопросы контроля над вооружениями, в том числе над ядерными, а также проблематика европейской и глобальной безопасности не сходят со страниц печатных изданий и электронных средств массовой информации. Но для описания этой важной и многоплановой проблемы хватило всего четыре страницы, что составляет небольшую долю от всего объёма доклада, занимающего в общей сложности 88 страниц.

В качестве положительного явления в мировой политике в докладе приветствуются итоги голосования по проекту международного Договора о полной ликвидации ядерного оружия, в поддержку которого в прошлом году выступили 122 государства. Но, с другой стороны, отмечается, что ядерные державы продолжают модернизировать свои ядерные арсеналы, а меньшие по размерам ядерные государства накапливают свои ядерные потенциалы, причём на фоне устаревающих соглашений по контролю над вооружениями. По мнению составителей доклада, формируется «второй ядерный век», в котором появляются новые игроки и который характеризуется меньшей стабильностью.

Авторы доклада весьма поверхностно рассмотрели ситуацию, сложившуюся вокруг Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (Договора РСМД), а также в связи с возможным окончанием через три года российско-американского Договора о сокращении стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений (Договора СНВ-3), заключённого восемь лет назад. Хотя составители доклада явно пытались продемонстрировать объективность при оценке позиций России и США по реализации Договора РСМД, изложив, как им показалось, основные аргументы сторон в двух сравнительных таблицах, им всё же не удалось более точно представить точку зрения Москвы по данной проблематике.

В частности, она заключается в том, что российская сторона до сих пор не создала никакой ядерной баллистической или крылатой ракеты наземного базирования средней и меньшей дальности (от 500 до 5500 км), запрещённой данным договором, и, стало быть, не нарушила его. Не случайно, что Вашингтон до сих пор не представил никаких доказательств по этому поводу.

А вот американская сторона начиная с 2001 года уже 93 раза нарушила названный договорный акт, использовав в качестве ракет-мишеней запрещённые им ракеты названной дальности при проверке эффективности глобальной системы ПРО путём проведения реальных испытаний ракет-перехватчиков.

В докладе помещена карта, искажающая зону максимального действия неких российских ракет «средней и меньшей дальности» наземного базирования в рамках Европы. Но таких ракет у российских Вооружённых Сил нет. Если же имеются в виду ракеты средней и меньшей дальности морского и воздушного базирования, то в данном пассаже авторам доклада ради объективности следовало бы указать, что Договор РСМД 1987 года не запрещает его участникам создавать и развёртывать ракеты морского и воздушного базирования названной дальности. То есть в докладе налицо подмена понятий. Так что же тогда «нарушает» Москва? Ничего.

С другой стороны, в доклад не попали те виды вооружений, которые могут влиять на уровень международной безопасности. Так, в докладе вообще не упоминается о наличии американского ядерного оружия тактического назначения на европейском континенте в виде авиабомб.

В докладе полностью обойдён вопрос о наращивании обычных, неядерных вооружений стран НАТО в Европе. А военная активность этого альянса, по словам генерального секретаря альянса Йенса Столтенберга, за последние несколько лет возросла в пять раз. В Европе появились восемь новых американских военных баз и шесть командно-штабных пунктов. Развёрнуты объединённые вооружённые формирования повышенной готовности.

Итак, новый доклад, подготовленный к Мюнхенской конференции по безопасности 2018 года, как и аналогичный документ, обнародованный в прошлом году, содержит как справедливые суждения, так и, к сожалению, сомнительные оценки. Он также обходит стороной многие актуальные проблемы в сфере европейской и международной безопасности, хотя призван объективно оценивать ситуацию в военно-политической сфере и вырабатывать практические рекомендации в этой исключительно важной области.

В этой связи напрашивается вывод, что, «размышляя» над таким докладом, очередная Международная конференция по безопасности, которая пройдёт с 16 по 18 февраля в баварской столице, вряд ли предложит миру что-то достойное внимания в области безопасности в интересах всех государств.

Автор:  Владимир Козин, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России;

Источник: “Красная звезда”

Калининград преткновения

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "Специальный репортаж" на телеканале "Звезда".

Что на самом деле представляет из себя Центр военно-морского анализа США? И почему к его прогнозам и аналитике стоит относиться всерьез?

Американский Центр военно-морского анализа подготовил сценарий превентивного удара НАТО по Калининградской области. Польше отведена роль тарана, который должен сокрушить оборону Калининградской области. Но как в действительности могут развиваться события?

Правда ли, что Центр военно-морского анализа США обозначил будущие военные действия открыто или доклад является отвлечением внимания от реальных приготовлений Альянса к войне? Что на самом деле представляет из себя Центр военно-морского анализа? И почему к его прогнозам и аналитике стоит относиться всерьез?

Эфир от 4 февраля 2021г.

Источник: Телеканал “Звезда” 

 

 

Ключевые военные стратегии США: их национальные и глобальные последствия

Вышел в свет новый труд ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ МГИМО, члена-корреспондента Академии военных наук Российской Федерации В.П. Козина

В монографии рассматриваются пять ключевых военно-политических стратегий США общенационального значения, принятых в период первого пребывания на посту президента Дональда Трампа,  а именно: стратегия национальной безопасности, стратегия национальной обороны, ядерная стратегия, стратегия противоракетной обороны и военно-космическая стратегия.

Дается их общая военно-политическая оценка и отражены наиболее существенные положения,  а также проанализирована материальная основа их реализации с точки зрения существующего и перспективного военно-технического потенциала и финансовых ресурсов, которые выделяются на реализацию названных стратегий в краткосрочной и долгосрочной перспективе.

Монография может быть использована экспертами, занимающимися вопросами контроля над вооружениями, а также теми, кто заинтересован в сбалансированном развитии российско-американских отношений в военно-политической сфере на основе принципа равенства и равной безопасности.

Работа издана на двух языках: русском и английском.

Ключевые проблемы в сфере ядерных вооружений между Россией и США

1 июня ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ В.П.Козин выступил на семинаре на тему «Российско-американские отношения в ядерной сфере: пути взаимодействия», организованном Российским советом по международным делам в Москве при участии министра энергетики США в 2013–2017 гг. Эрнста Мониза, который является сопредседателем и исполнительным директором американской НКО «Инициатива против ядерной угрозы».

В.П.Козин высказался за проведение специального отдельного российско-американского саммита по контролю над вооружениями («саммита по безопасности» или «саммита по стабильности»), который обозначил бы первые возможные договоренности в названной сфере между Москвой и Вашингтоном.

По словам эксперта ЦВПИ, большое значение имело бы достижение двусторонней договоренности между Россией и США о неприменении ядерного оружия любого типа и любой мощности в первом ударе, что позволило бы стабилизировать международную обстановку и снизить угрозу применения ядерного оружия с американской стороны.

В.П.Козин обратил внимание на то обстоятельство, что новая ядерная стратегия США, одобренная Дональдом Трампом, имеет 14 оснований применения ядерного оружия, что значительно расширяет возможности для использования ракетно-ядерных средств американской стороной в различных ситуациях, в то время как российская ядерная доктрина предусматривает только два основания для его использования.

По словам сотрудника ЦВПИ, принятию обязательства о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе содействует заключенное в 1994 году бессрочное соглашение между Россией и США о прекращении нацеливания их ядерных ракет на территории друг друга, которое сохраняет свою юридическую и политическую силу.

Отвечая на его вопрос, что американское руководство понимает под термином «ядерные боезаряды малой мощности», который отражен в новой ядерной доктрине и фигурирует в публичных выступлениях военно-политического руководства США, Эрнст Мониз заявил, что к таковым относятся ядерные боезаряды с мощностью от 5 килотонн и ниже.

В.П.Козин также дал ответы на пять вопросов повестки дня семинара, сформулированные его организаторами.

Когда же мы ответим Вашингтону?

От обоснованных возражений России, выступающей против развертывания глобальной системы ПРО Соединенных Штатов и НАТО в непосредственной близости от своих рубежей, Запад попросту отмахивается. Последнее тому подтверждение – позиция заместителя генерального секретаря НАТО Александра Вершбоу, который в своем недавнем выступлении не предложил никаких вариантов решения проблемы ПРО в российско-американских и российско-натовских отношениях.

Более того, его пространный доклад «Будущая противоракетная оборона: перспектива НАТО» содержал недвусмысленный вывод: «С перспективной точки зрения НАТО, противоракетная оборона будет отчетливо приобретать растущее значение для альянса в последующие годы». Это категорическое заявление человека, занимающего столь высокий пост в военно-политическом руководстве Североатлантического союза, не оставляет никаких сомнений: и США, и НАТО в целом продолжат размещать в Старом Свете и другие, традиционные виды оружия «передового базирования» – ядерные и обычные. Поэтому Москва должна дать на это жесткий ответ. Просто вынуждена.

Схема развертывания противоракетных средств повышенной дальности, способных решать стратегические задачи, в виде «Европейского поэтапного адаптивного подхода», была обнародована Бараком Обамой в сентябре 2009 года. Теперь, судя по недавним заявлениям высокопоставленных представителей государственного департамента и министерства обороны, она будет реализовываться явочным порядком не только до 2022 года, как говорились в прошлом году, но и даже после 2030 года. Вашингтон не намерен ограничивать себя в развертывании ударно-боевых и информационно-управляющих средств «противоракетного щита», в том числе - у рубежей России. О чем, собственно, не раз заявлял верховный главнокомандующий вооруженными силами США, президент Барак Обама.

Морская составляющая глобальной противоракетной инфраструктуры Соединенных Штатов уже появилась в Мировом океане: к началу 2014 года она насчитывает 29 крейсеров и эсминцев с боевой информационно-управляющей системой «Иджис».

При этом в Вашингтоне не отказываются от увеличения количества ракет-перехватчиков не только на континентальной части США, но и на европейском и азиатском континентах, на Ближнем и Среднем Востоке, а также в зоне Персидского залива…

Дружно взявшись за лопаты, 28 октября прошлого года министр обороны Румынии и заместитель министра обороны Соединенных Штатов заложили первый камень в фундамент крупнейшей новой американской военной структуры на румынской земле – операционной противоракетной базы в Девеселу, которая будет готова уже к 2015 году. Полна решимости реализовать аналогичное соглашение с Вашингтоном и Варшава, которая собирается соорудить мощный оперативный комплекс ПРО возле Редзиково на севере страны к 2018 году. Военно-политическая и военно-техническая автономность которого полностью выводит его из-под контроля польского руководства.

Намеченные к размещению на двух обозначенных базах 48 ракет-перехватчиков - по 24 единицы на территории каждой страны - будут способны перехватывать не только ракеты «промежуточной дальности», к которым Пентагон относит баллистические и крылатые ракеты с дальностью полета от 3 до 5,5 тысяч километров, но и межконтинентальной дальности, летящие дальше 5,5 тысяч километров, то есть МБР Российской Федерации. У Ирана и у Северной Кореи, «агрессивными планами» которых Вашингтон оправдывает размещение своих ракет-перехватчиков, нет средств со столь значительной дальностью полета. И неизвестно, когда будут - если будут вообще.

В связи с предстоящим развертыванием в Европе американских противоракетных систем стратегического назначения возникает несколько обоснованных и логичных вопросов.

Укрепит ли оборону Румынии и Польши американский «противоракетный щит»? Усилит ли он обороноспособность самих Соединенных Штатов? Ответ: нет, не укрепит и не усилит. Поскольку он будет уничтожен в случае обострения военно-политической обстановки – так же, как и американские тактические ядерные вооружения, дислоцированные на европейском континенте на территории Бельгии, Италии, Нидерландов и ФРГ, а также в азиатской части Турции.

У Вашингтона есть и дополнительная аргументация в пользу развертывания системы ПРО.

Во-первых, довод геополитического характера: «Баллистические ракеты вероятного противника гораздо эффективнее перехватывать над его территорией или около нее, чем над своей собственной». Во-вторых, меркантильный интерес: «За счет продажи дорогостоящей противоракетной инфраструктуры своим союзникам и партнерам можно компенсировать бремя собственных финансово-экономических потерь и выходить из финансового кризиса».

Но есть и другой мотив, который нынешние американские лидеры умело скрывают, втягивая Бухарест и Варшаву в реализацию своих проектов.

Это - их желание иметь постоянный раздражитель в румыно-российских и польско-российских отношениях, которые постепенно очищаются от «завалов» прошлого. Неужели этого не понимает руководство Румынии и Польши? А если понимает, то соглашается «развивать» отношения с Россией именно таким образом?

Известно, сколько шума наделало сообщение немецкой газеты «Бильд» в декабре прошлого года о том, что Москва разместила свои новейшие оперативные ракетные комплексы «Искандер» в Калининградской области. Кремль через несколько дней заявил, что окончательное решение по этому вопросу еще не принято. Наше телевидение позже показало репортаж из одной из российских дивизий, имеющей на вооружении оперативные комплексы «Искандер» и «дислоцированной в Западном военном округе» - но без указания места ее развертывания.

Так, может быть, решение, о котором идет речь, надо принять уже сегодня? Заблаговременно сосредоточив соответствующий потенциал, компенсирующий противоракетную угрозу - и в южных районах России, и в этом западном российском эксклаве. Именно сейчас, когда сооружение американских противоракетных операционных комплексов в Девеселу и Редзиково еще не закончено.

Почему заблаговременно? Да потому, что когда эти противоракетные объекты «передового базирования» будут введены в строй и на них появятся ракеты-перехватчики США, «прокручивать» ситуацию в обратном направлении будет поздновато.

Да, это будет вынужденная мера. К сожалению, понятных аргументов Москвы о нецелесообразности развертывания американских противоракетных средств в Европе и Азии, да еще в «сцепке» с ядерными вооружениями, в Вашингтоне, штаб-квартире НАТО в Брюсселе, а также в Бухаресте и Варшаве не слышат. Не хотят слышать. И уже не первый год.

«Глухота» эта возникла не вчера. Прошло 12 лет после одностороннего выхода Соединенных Штатов из Договора по ПРО, который, по словам многих прежних американских президентов, «являлся краеугольным камнем обеспечения глобальной стратегической стабильности». И все эти годы Москва безуспешно пыталась всерьез обсудить противоракетную проблематику с Вашингтоном.

Думаю, нам потребуются более решительные предупредительные меры - чтобы не допустить крайне нежелательного развития событий.

Тех самых, которые могут последовать после развертывания американских противоракетных ударно-боевых средств у российских границ, в частности, в Южной и Восточной Европе. Требуется пояснение. «Крайне нежелательное развитие событий» - это радикальное изменение военно-политической ситуации на континенте в пользу США и НАТО, в ущерб национальным оборонным интересам России.

Уместно использовать устные «заверения» Вашингтона, который не устает повторять, что развертываемые им средства ПРО не направлены против России и не подрывают потенциал ее сил ядерного сдерживания. Нам просто следует сообщить: возможные заблаговременные ответные меры Российской Федерации также никоим образом не будут направлены против Соединенных Штатов и других государств, которые собираются размещать американскую противоракетную инфраструктуру и американское ядерное оружие на своей территории.

Наши возможные «упреждающие» или ответные меры на масштабные военные «противоракетные» и ядерные приготовления Вашингтона у территории Российской Федерации уже неоднократно были названы. Есть среди них официально озвученные, есть и предложения отечественных экспертов. Секрета эти инициативы не представляют, они подробно изложены в монографии «Эволюция противоракетной обороны США и позиция России», вышедшей летом прошлого года. Изложению ответных шагов отведено 70 страниц, почти пятая часть книги. В Вашингтоне, Брюсселе, Бухаресте и Варшаве могут ознакомиться с этими деталями и даже «намотать их на ус». Чтобы в будущем не называть дальнейшие действия Москвы по парированию комбинированной «противоракетно-ядерной угрозы» США и НАТО «коварством» и «подготовкой к агрессии против западного мира».

Автор: Козин Владимир Петрович – главный советник-руководитель Группы советников директора Российского института стратегических исследований, член-корреспондент Российской академии естественных наук
Источник: Столетие 06.02.2014

Когда и почему будет уничтожено ядерное оружие?

Интервью с Владимиром Козиным

С середины прошлого века великие державы перестали сражаться между собой напрямую. Но вооруженные конфликты, главным образом региональные, не исчезли, просто начали разворачиваться либо на ограниченных площадках (Корея, Вьетнам, Афганистан, Сирия), либо ушли в новый формат «гибридных войн». Во многом это произошло из-за наличия ядерного оружия, которого у каждой из сторон потенциального военного противостояния накоплено столько, что победителя в ядерной войне просто не будет.

Тем не менее, стабильности в мире становится всё меньше. В тех же США ситуация подошла чуть ли не вплотную к гражданской войне. Следовательно, наличие ядерных арсеналов у девяти ядерных государств становится крайне опасным фактором. Эту проблему Общественная служба новостей обсудила с ведущим экспертом Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, членом-корреспондентом Академии военных наук, экспертом КС НКО Владимиром Козиным.

– Владимир Петрович, скажите, а сегодня ядерное оружие вообще нужно? Ведь информационное оружие, политическое оружие и другой арсенал «гибридных войн» доказали свою относительную эффективность. Даже экономика в сегодняшнем мире может применяться как оружие.

– Да, количество ядерного оружия у девяти государств, средств его доставки значительно возросло. Соответственно, возросла и вероятность его применения. В действующей ядерной стратегии США имеются 14 оснований для его использования, в том числе в качестве первого удара. Видимо, по этой причине сейчас в антиядерном движении в США и в Европе поднимается новая волна против ядерного оружия и возможности его использования.

Спор ведётся – пока – только по одному принципиальному вопросу: крайний срок ликвидации ядерного оружия в 2030 или 2045 году? Причем 6 августа 2045-й год – дата понятная. Это столетие его применения американцами против Японии.

В этих требованиях также учитывается реальная техническая возможность повсеместной ликвидации ядерного оружия. А это такая же сложная проблема, как и создание ракетно-ядерных средств – и по времени демонтажа, и по финансовым затратам.

Эта волна только-только начинает движение, и похоже, что она будет пользоваться популярностью. В любом случае, человечество когда-то, конечно, избавится от ядерного оружия. Вопрос: когда?

Завтра? Нет. Послезавтра – тоже нет. Через год – вряд ли. А вот дальше – это уже когда? И когда это произойдёт, то почему?

Считаю, что это может произойти, когда вся ядерная девятка (и другие возможные участники этого клуба, если он расширится) перейдут на так называемое «оборонительное неядерное сдерживание, которое никому не угрожает».

– Сегодня ядерное оружие – это не столько средство войны, сколько средство недопущения войны.

– Да, чтобы противники и не думали нападать из-за неотвратимого возмездия.

– И если его убрать, то мы опрокинемся в XIX век, войны покатятся по планете.

– Конечно, это очень опасно. В одностороннем порядке ни в коем случае России нельзя его ликвидировать ни ядерное оружие, ни «великолепную семёрку».

Есть американский фильм «Великолепная семёрка», две экранизации: старый в 1960 году и новый в 2016. По сюжету семь «хороших парней» защищали одну деревню от гангстеров.

Вот и у России сначала было шесть перспективных видов вооружений, о которых президент рассказывал в 2018 году: Авангард, Сармат, Буревестник, Кинжал, Посейдон и Пересвет. А сейчас добавился седьмой: «Циркон» (гиперзвуковая крылатая противокорабельная ракета – прим. ред.). Вся эта «семёрка» не подпадает под какие бы то ни было договоры о сокращении или ограничении ядерных вооружений.

МБР Сармат может попасть только после завершения всех испытаний, принятия ее на вооружение и пристыковки к ней ядерных боезарядов. То есть – в будущем.

Но остальные виды вообще независимо ни от каких причин не могут быть включены ни в ДСНВ-3, ни в какие другие существующие договорные акты.

– А это движение против ядерного вооружения, оно стихийно начинается или это, всё-таки, кто-то продавливает? Потому что если мы откажемся от своего ядерного вооружения, то сможем ли мы удержать границы только обычными системами вооружений?

– Удивительно, но некоторые сторонники глобального ядерного нуля предлагают России заявить о готовности отказаться от ядерного оружия в инициативном порядке, в качестве жеста «доброй воли». Странная позиция. Но когда им говоришь: «А вы пробовали предложить такой вариант США?» Сразу теряются. Знают, что Белый дом на это не пойдет.

Нет, в одиночку, конечно, отказываться нельзя. Этот процесс должен быть синхронизирован со всеми другими ядерными государствами и носить необратимый характер. И с обязательно жёсткой проверкой полной ликвидации.

А причин для такого шага, я думаю, много.

Во-первых, порог применения ядерного оружия у американцев резко снизился. Иными словами, возможности его применения резко возросли. В оборонительной доктрине Дональда Трампа, как уже было сказано, заявлено 14 оснований применения ядерного оружия. А при Бараке Обаме было шесть!

У нас же было и остаётся – два.

И появляются заряды малой мощности.

– От себя могу добавить, что ведётся активная пропаганда. Если посмотреть по фильмам, очень много таких, которые говорят: после ядерной войны жить можно. Конечно, плохонько, но зато по-новому.

– И это очень плохо.

Но дело в том, что «западники», они позволяют критиковать применение ядерного оружия. Не сами, а с позиции общественного мнения. То есть они не препятствуют продвигать идеи о «ядерной зиме», ужасных последствиях – гигантских пожарах, радиоактивном заражении местности, отсутствии питьевой воды, нехватке всего и вся, уничтожении запасов продовольствия.

Но они препятствуют, например, требованиям чтобы США убрали  своё ТЯО (тактическое ядерное оружие – прим. ред.) из Европы. И также они препятствуют протестам против размещения Соединенными Штатами нового ядерного вооружения в Европе после их выхода из ДРСМД.

Я думаю, что эти факторы заставляют людей беспокоиться: и специалистов, и непрофессионалов

Автор: Александр Петренко. Источник:  ИА "Общественная служба новостей"

Козин В.П.: К 30-летию подписания Договора о ликвидации РСМД: ключевые проблемы реализации

В статье рассматриваются основные проблемы реализации Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (Договора РСМД) 1987 г., подписанного три десятилетия назад между СССР и США. Подробно излагается позиция и аргументы Вашингтона, который неоднократно обвинял Россию в его "несоблюдении" по причине развёртывания трёх баллистических ракет и одной крылатой ракеты наземного базирования. Описывается позиция российской стороны, которая не считает, что она нарушает названный договор. Автор излагает причины, по которым США обвиняют Россию в "несоблюдении" договора 1987 г., и показывает конкретные нарушения Вашингтоном этих договорённостей в прошлом при испытаниях системы ПРО, а также высказывает предположения о возможности нарушения этого бессрочного договора американской стороной в будущем.

Ключевые слова: проблемы реализации Договора о ликвидации РСМД, стратегические наступательные вооружения, Договор СНВ-3, тактическое ядерное оружие, вопросы контроля над вооружениями, эволюция российско-американских отношений.

Источник: журнал США и Канада: экономика, политика, культура. 2018. № 1

 


Kozin V.P. The 30th anniversary of theINF Treaty: key issues of its implementation

The article examines the key issues related to the implementation of the INF Treaty that has been signed 30 years ago between the USSR and the USA. It describes in detail the Washington’s stance and arguments which has been for many times blaming Russia of its "violation" by deployment of three land-based ballistic missiles and one ground-launched cruise missile. The article explains the Russian position which believes that it does not breach the treaty. The author outlines the reasons used by Washington in denouncing Moscow for its "non-compliance" with the 1987 arrangement during test flights of the U.S. BMDS, and offers his predicament for a possibility of its violation by the USA in the future.

Keywords: the INF Treaty, strategic offensive arms, the New START, tactical nuclear weapons, arms control, Russian-U.S. relations.

Source: USA & Canada: economy, politics, culture. 2018. № 1

Козин рассказал, зачем США наращивают военное присутствие в Европе

Президент США Джо Байден в ходе встречи с генсеком НАТО Йенсом Столтенбергом заявил, что Соединенные Штаты намерены нарастить свое военное присутствие по всей Европе. Какие цели преследуют американцы и чего ждать России? Как Москва ответит на вступление в НАТО Швеции и Финляндии? Помогут ли Киеву новые поставки западного вооружения?

Обо всем этом в интервью "Sputnik на русском" рассказал член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин.

 

Козин: "гибридные угрозы" со стороны России – "страшилка" НАТО

профессор Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин

Люди, которые придумали сценарии учений против "гибридных угроз", должны проверить свое душевное здоровье, считает эксперт Владимир Козин
 
В Литве прошли масштабные учения против "гибридных угроз". Эти учения — своего рода подготовка к противодействию угрозам, которые якобы исходят от России. В них участвовали не только военные, но также представители полиции и важных стратегических государственных объектов.
 
В интервью Sputnik Литва профессор Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин рассказал, что подобные учения проводятся под воздействием запугивания со стороны Североатлантического альянса.
 
"Чем я больше слышу подобных сценариев, планов каких-то и задействование в таких учениях огромного количества людей, средств связи, коммуникаций, транспорта, тем больше у меня возникает убеждение, что натовские союзники настолько запугали всех остальных стран — членов НАТО разными гибридными и прочими войнами, агрессиями в течение 24 часов. Им надо просто прекратить работу всем и заниматься только рытьем окопов, созданием блиндажей, сушить сухари, делать запасы воды и так далее. У нас в Москве есть больница Кащенко, как известно, она занимается душевнобольными людьми, там их пытаются вылечить. Может быть, те, кто придумывает и расписывает такие сценарии, организует их в Литовской Республике, может быть, им тоже надо какую-то свою подобную клинику посетить при самом удобном случае, проверить свое здоровье", — отметил эксперт.

 

Кому это НАТО?

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “Известия. Главное”

Почему Россия то главный противник, то восточный партнёр? Из-за чего на саммит не пригласили Украину и Грузию? И почему жертвами учений альянса чуть не стали болгарские рабочие и итальянские куры?

Эфир от 5 июня 2021г.

Источник: "Пятый телеканал"

Контрнаступление: что скрывает Зеленский

Ведущий эксперт  ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “Засекреченные списки” на канале РЕН-TV.

В темах выпуска:

Начало контрнаступления ВСУ дорого обошлось Украине.

Кто заставляет Зеленского идти на бессмысленные жертвы?

За что украинские бойцы расстреливают собственных командиров?

Чему военные НАТО учат украинских солдат?

И чем Зеленский шантажирует своих западных спонсоров?

Эфир от 24 июня 2023г.

 

Контролируемая утечка – для прикрытия неконтролируемой ситуации на фронте

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “ОТРажение” на канале ОТР.

Спецслужбы США слили в сеть якобы секретные пентагоновские документы, касающиеся поддержки ВСУ.

Эфир от 10 марта 2023г.

 

Контроль над вооружениями в 2021 году: краткие итоги

В 2021 году не произошло каких-то крупных событий в сфере глобального контроля над вооружениями (КНВ), за исключением двух акций, довольно значимых для укрепления глобальной стратегической стабильности.

Во-первых, продление в феврале сроком на пять лет, то есть до 5 февраля 2026 года российско-американского Договора о сокращении стратегических наступательных вооружений (в сокращении: Договор СНВ-3).

Во-вторых, вступление в силу многостороннего Договора о запрещении ядерного оружия, хотя он создавался без участия государств, обладающих ядерным оружием.

Администрация президента-демократа Джозефа Байдена не предприняла практических шагов в направлении возможного возобновления участия США в договорных актах в области КНВ, из которых в одностороннем порядке вышел его предшественник Дональд Трамп.

Американские стратегические ядерные силы по-прежнему придерживались стратегии нанесения первого ядерного удара по Российской Федерации, КНР, а также некоторым другим государствам.

США продолжали практику направления тяжелых стратегических бомбардировщиков, сертифицированных под доставку ядерного оружия, в воздушное пространство Европы, в том числе государств Балтии, Польши и Украины, в ходе которых отрабатывались способы нанесения ракетно-ядерных ударов по российской территории.

Пентагон отказывался вывезти тактическое ядерное оружие (ТЯО) с территории пяти иностранных государств-членов НАТО (Бельгии, Италии, Нидерландов, Турции и ФРГ), а также не исключал возможности размещения на европейском континенте новых американских ракет средней дальности в ядерном снаряжении, которые подпадали бы под ограничения Договора о ликвидации РСМД, если бы Вашингтон инициативно не вышел из него в 2019 году. Руководство Североатлантического союза заявило о возможности перебазирования ТЯО США с территории ФРГ в «восточном направлении».

Трансатлантический альянс продолжал проводить круглосуточную и круглогодичную операцию ВВС «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» в небе Латвии, Литвы, Польши и Эстонии с использованием ядерного оружия трех ядерных держава Запада (Великобритании, США и Франции).

США не прекращали продажу сопредельным и близлежащим к России государствам новейшие истребители-бомбардировщики F-35A, способные нести ядерное оружие.

Американская сторона продолжала уклонятся от ратификации Договора о всеобъемлющем возобновлении ядерных испытаний.

Соединенные Штаты наращивали потенциал глобальной системы ПРО и продолжали строительство своей комбинированной операционной противоракетной базы в Польше (близ Слупска), которая, как и их аналогичная база в Румынии (в Девеселу), введенная в действие в 2016 году,  будет способна загружать в свои пусковые установки не только оборонительные системы в виде ракет-перехватчиков, но и ударно-боевые средства, то есть наступательные виды вооружений, в виде крылатых ракет, а в перспективе – и высокоточных гиперзвуковых ракет.  

Американская сторона уклонялась от выработки международной договоренности по вопросу предотвращения гонки вооружений в космическом пространстве и принятия обязательства об отказе вывода в космос первыми оружия любого вида.

Вашингтон не пытался ратифицировать Договор об обычных вооруженных силах в Европе и игнорировал предложение России заключить международный Договор об укреплении европейской безопасности.

15 декабря Россия передала США и НАТО проекты договорных актов по вопросу предоставления ей с их стороны гарантий безопасности, в том числе юридического обязательства об отказе от дальнейшего расширения членского состава альянса, о принятии взаимных мер по неразвертыванию ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных вооружений, а также об ограничении военной деятельности в определенных зонах соприкосновения.

18 декабря Россия официально вышла из Договора по открытому небу в связи с тем, что после аналогичного шага, предпринятого в отношении него Вашингтоном в одностороннем порядке, он утратил военно-политическое значение для российской стороны из-за нарушения баланса взаимных наблюдательных полетов в воздушном пространстве двух противоположных групп государств-участников.

Проведенные в 2021 году несколько раундов российско-американских консультаций по проблематике стратегической стабильности не привели к каким-то субстантивным договоренностям в сфере КНВ, кроме согласия сторон по некоторым организационно-структурным вопросам обозначенного формата.

Автор: В.П. Козин – член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН

 

Контроль над вооружениями: итоги 2020 года

Ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований В.П.Козин — о ситуации в сфере контроля над вооружениями в 2020 году

В 2020 году продолжался процесс дальнейшего обрушения деликатного механизма контроля над вооружениями (КНВ), который начал тормозиться при администрации президента Барака Обамы (2009–2017 гг.) и продолжился в период деятельности администрации Дональда Трампа (2017–2021 гг.).

В частности, в 2020 году не было выработано и подписано ни одного договора или соглашения в названной сфере. В прошедшем году Соединенные Штаты в одностороннем порядке дополнительно в ноябре вышли из Договора по открытому небу; лишь осенью предложили вариант пролонгации Договора СНВ-3, но который оказался неприемлемым для России с точки зрения ее национальной безопасности и принципов стратегической стабильности. Вашингтон также продолжал игнорировать российское предложение об объявлении взаимного моратория с Соединенными Штатами на развертывание новых ядерных ракет средней и меньшей дальности в тех регионах, где они отсутствуют. Республиканская администрация решительно отказалась вывести тактическое ядерное оружие США из Европы на свою территорию, которое находится там с середины 50-х годов.

В целом, в заключительный год деятельности республиканской администрации Белый дом не предпринял никаких шагов, направленных на оживление КНВ, и не высказал политически значимых предложений, которые могли бы содействовать этому. Единственным достижением администрации Дональда Трампа стало назначение только в апреле 2020 года специального представителя президента по КНВ Маршалла Биллингсли, который не обладает солидным опытом в этой сфере. Явное запоздание.

Ключевые принципы США

В 2019 году президент Дональд Трамп выдвинул идею-призыв о проявлении «нового похода» к проблеме КНВ. Но в чем состояла такая новация? Ни он, ни его «специалисты по КНВ» так и не смогли разъяснить эту инициативу ни тогда, ни в 2020 году. Скорее всего, такая идея была вброшена Вашингтоном с целью информационно-пропагандистского прикрытия факта заведенного им этого процесса в глухой тупик.

О неготовности, а лучше сказать о нежелании республиканского руководства США урегулировать проблему КНВ говорит опубликованное в апреле 2020 года Государственным департаментом «исследование» в названной области, выход которого постоянно откладывался. Оно открыло новую рубрику этого внешнеполитического ведомства под заголовком «Контроль над вооружениями и исследовательские разработки в сфере международной безопасности». «Исследование» было подготовлено доктором Кристофером Фордом, занимавшим в 2020 году должность заместителя государственного секретаря по вопросам международной безопасности и нераспространения. Впоследствии материалы о проблематике КНВ стали выходить периодически.

Основная цель первого документа явно состояла в «разоблачении» России, якобы, не соблюдающей принципы КНВ. Кристофер Форд обвинил Москву в нарушении Договора о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний (ДВЗЯИ), хотя никто не сомневается в том, что после его ратификации российской стороной еще в 2000 году на ее бывших ядерных полигонах стоит полная тишина. Этот факт фиксируют многочисленные сейсмические станции, развернутые во многих государствах мира. С другой стороны, этот высокопоставленный специалист не упомянул, что американская ядерная стратегия 2018 года предусматривает возобновление ядерных испытаний на полигоне в штате Невада.

В заключительной части своего «исследования» заместитель государственного секретаря утверждал, что описанные «несоблюдения» Москвой двусторонних и многосторонних договоров в области контроля над вооружениями были вызваны «ухудшением» российско-американских отношений. Интересно: а кем было инициировано такое ухудшение? Не Соединенными Штатами ли?

Коснувшись проблематики возможных ограничений тактических ядерных вооружений, Кристофер Форд так и не пояснил: собираются ли Соединенные Штаты полностью освободить Европу от американских ядерных вооружений этого класса. Скорее всего нет, так как администрация Дональда Трампа твердо заявила об отказе их передислокации на континентальную часть страны.

Вызывает удивление практическое предложение Кристофера Форда, адресованное Российской Федерации: надо, мол, перейти к большему охвату сокращений различных видов вооружений сторон, чем в предыдущие годы, когда в основном, по его убеждению, достигались договоренности об их ограничении. Далее он заявил, что Соединенные Штаты стремятся к обеспечению «стабильности и предсказуемости» в сфере КНВ. И даже, дескать, готовы пойти на некие меры «нового поколения» в названной сфере. Но никаких разъяснений по этому вопросу не последовало.

Факт остается фактом: американская сторона демонстрировала отрицательное отношение к названной проблеме весь период правления республиканской администрации, в том числе в 2020 году негативно относилась к 13 двусторонним и многосторонним договорным актам в области КНВ (см. слайд 1).

Еще ранее Вашингтон в одностороннем порядке вышел из «иранской ядерной сделки» (2018 г.), денонсировал международный Договор о торговле оружием (2019 г.) и ДРСМД (2019 г.), напрочь отказался ратифицировать ДВЗЯИ и проявил явное нежелание продлить срок действия Договора СНВ-3, которое было закамуфлировано под заявленную готовность пролонгировать его только на один год, да и то на основе трех предварительных условий, которые не отвечали интересам национальной безопасности России. Об этом будет более подробно сказано ниже.

Кроме того, администрация Дональда Трампа (так же как и администрация Барака Обамы) не пожелала распространить положения российско-американского Соглашения о предотвращении инцидентов в открытом море и в воздушном пространстве над ним (СПИОМ), заключенного еще в 1972 году, на подводные лодки сторон, находящиеся в подводном положении. Реализация подобной инициативы, на чем неоднократно настаивала Россия, позволила бы предотвращать столкновения атомных подводных лодок сторон, которые возникали в прошлом, когда подводные ракетоносные и ударные субмарины США появлялись в зоне боевой подготовки ВМФ России в северных морях.

Республиканская администрация Соединенных Штатов не проявляла никакого желания подписать Договор о европейской безопасности (ДЕБ) и Договор о предотвращении размещения оружия в космосе (ДПРОК), оба проекта которых в полном объеме, то есть с преамбулами и оперативными статьями, уже давно были подготовлены и доведены до Вашингтона и мировой общественности в целом.

По образному и меткому выражению заместителя министра иностранных дел Сергея Рябкова, курирующего проблематику контроля над вооружениями и отношения России с США, Вашингтон является «серийным нарушителем международных договоров и обязательств в сфере контроля за вооружениями» [1].

То, что никак нельзя игнорировать

Принятая в феврале 2018 года новая американская ядерная стратегия действительно понизила порог применения ядерного оружия. Иными словами, она повысила шансы и расширила основания его использования практически в любой точке земного шара. Причем, по указанию только одного человека в стране — президента Соединенных Штатов, что уже не раз вызывало беспокойство в Конгрессе.

Эта ядерная стратегия имеет 14 оснований применения ядерного оружия, часть из которых имеет нарочито составленные туманные формулировки, которые позволяют американским ядерным силам, например, нанести первый ядерный удар в случае неких «технологических прорывов», «геополитических вызовов» и ряда других оснований. Для сравнения: предшественник Дональда Трампа на посту главы государства Барак Обама включал в свою ядерную стратегию шесть оснований для применения ядерного оружия (см. слайд 2).

О понижении порога применения ядерного оружия Соединенными Штатами говорит тот факт, что они уже установили ядерные боезаряды малой мощности W76-2 на атомную ракетную подводную лодку «Теннесси» (бортовой номер 774), которая уже выходила на боевое патрулирование в Мировой океан [2]. По предварительным оценкам, такими боезарядами могут быть оснащены по несколько ракет всех остальных ПЛАРБ типа «Огайо» и новых ракетоносцев класса «Колумбия», которые начнут выходить на боевое патрулирование в Мировой океан с 2031 года.

В мае и августе, а затем в сентябре 2020 года упоминавшийся Маршалл Биллингсли заявил, что Вашингтон готов рассмотреть продление Договора СНВ-3, но при условии согласия российской стороны с его тремя предварительными условиями: решения вопроса относительно «увеличения Россией количества нестратегических ядерных вооружений»; усиления верификационных механизмов по проверке выполнения продленного варианта договора; создания возможности для включения КНР в будущие договоренности по сокращению СНВ в какой-то перспективе.

Указанное заявление в части увеличения количества «нестратегических ядерных вооружений» не соответствует действительности. Усиление верификационных механизмов всегда должно соответствовать содержанию договора. Упорство Вашингтона включить Пекин в текущий Договор СНВ-3 непрофессионально, так как его пришлось бы «вскрывать», то есть обсуждать и согласовывать заново. А вовлечь китайскую сторону в будущее соглашение является никчемной запросной позицией США в связи с твердо занятой позицией Пекина по этому вопросу, которая является справедливой и понятной из-за значительной существенного дисбаланса в ядерных вооружениях Китая и Соединенных Штатов, средствах доставки таких вооружений и в их военно-стратегических доктринальных установках об их применении. Что касается ранее высказанного Вашингтона заявления о необходимости заморозить ядерные боезаряды России, то оно преследует его скрытые попытки во что бы то ни стало затормозить разработку и создание высокоточных перспективных видов российских вооружений.

На «большой» пресс-конференции 17 декабря президент России Владимир Путин вновь напомнил о готовности работать над Договором СНВ-3 в плане его продления. Реагируя на это, Маршалл Биллингсли повторил тупиковую позицию Вашингтона на эту тему. Заместитель главы российского внешнеполитического ведомства Сергей Рябков на это отреагировал заявлением о том, что Москва акты о капитуляции с американской стороной подписывать не намерена, а будет заключать с ней лишь договоренности, основывающиеся на балансе интересов [3].

Администрация Дональда Трампа также пыталась включить в переговорный процесс по сокращению СНВ все семь новых перспективных российских видов вооружений, продемонстрировав удовлетворение в связи с заявлением Москвы о распространении положений Договора СНВ-3 на планирующий гиперзвуковой боевой блок «Авангард» и новую МБР «Сармат». Но к концу 2020 года Белый дом так и не включил в переговорную формулу свои собственные гиперзвуковые боевые блоки и средства их доставки в виде новых МБР.

Диалога с США по новым российским системам гиперзвукового оружия не может быть без комплексного обсуждения аналогичных американских проектов, — четко заявил РИА «Новости» 17 апреля 2020 года заместитель министра иностранных дел Сергей Рябков, уточнив, что также необходимо обменяться мнениями по проблематике создания глобальной ПРО США, размещения оружия в космосе и ряда других программ, которые крайне дестабилизируют стратегическую сферу и вызывают озабоченность Москвы.

По его словам, российская сторона еще раз подчеркивает и адресует Вашингтону сообщение, что «разговор по тематике стратегической стабильности может быть только комплексным, и в рамках этого разговора мы будем руководствоваться исключительно задачей обеспечения нашей национальной безопасности». «Это альфа и омега нашего подхода вообще к работе в сфере контроля над вооружениями», дополнил заместитель главы российского дипломатического ведомства свои заявления [4].

Ядерные силы США стратегического и тактического назначения по-прежнему придерживаются стратегии «расширенного ядерного сдерживания», то есть стратегии о раскрытии американского «ядерного зонтика» над всеми союзниками по НАТО и над внеблоковыми сателлитами США: Австралией, Израилем, Южной Кореей и Японией. Именно Соединенные Штаты, а не Россия, сохраняют установку «эскалация ради деэскалации».

Соединенные Штаты являются единственным государством в мире, которое имеет со своими союзниками по НАТО «соглашения о разделении ядерной ответственности» или «соглашения о совместных ядерных миссиях» (nuclear sharing agreements), в ходе реализации которых отрабатываются задачи применения ядерного оружия воздушного базирования, в том числе государствами-членами альянса, не имеющими американского ядерного оружия на своей территории и не располагающими своими собственными ядерными арсеналами.

Все перечисленные военно-стратегические установки нанизываются на незыблемый постулат, существующий со времени создания и применения ядерного оружия Соединенными Штатами в 1945 году. В соответствии с ним оно может использоваться в первом превентивном ударе (по небольшому количеству целей) и в первом упреждающем ударе (по значительному количеству целей). Такое положение Пентагон намерен сохранить на неопределенный срок. Как записано в ядерной стратегии 2018 года: «США никогда не соглашались взять обязательство о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе; такая политика является неоправданной и в настоящее время».

Кроме того, американские ядерные силы сохраняют стратегию нанесения ядерного удара в соответствии с концепцией «запуск по предупреждению» («launch-on-warning»), а также применение ядерного оружия даже «до пуска» ракетных средств противника («launch-prior-tolaunch»). В них не делается такой важной оговорки, что это может произойти только после получения достоверной и тщательно проверенной информации о ракетном нападении.

За последние несколько лет стратегическая авиация США, укомплектованная тяжелыми стратегическими бомбардировщиками, подпадающими под ограничения Договора СНВ-3, значительно нарастила количество таких самолетов при патрулировании воздушного пространства своих союзников по НАТО, а также периодичность полетов с ними в небе Европы. Особая активность действий таких авиационных сил обозначилась в 2020 году, в особенности у рубежей Российской Федерации и Республики Беларусь. Пространственная зона действий стратегической авиации США в небе Европы также возросла в несколько раз.

Соединенные Штаты и их два ядерных союзника Великобритания и Франция продолжали участвовать в операции ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование». Такая операция проводится в небе Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии уже в течение последних 16 лет круглосуточно и круглогодично с использованием самолетов «двойного назначения» (DCA) и военных авиабаз названных государств, соответственно, в Лиелварде, Зокняй и Эмари. Недавно в зону действия такой операции вошла и Польша.

До сих пор нет даже ясности в том, по какой причине администрация нынешнего хозяина Белого дома отказывается еще раз подтвердить формулировку, которая представляется понятной даже неспециалистам: «Ядерная война не может быть развязана, так как в ней не будет победителей». Следует напомнить, что эту формулировку впервые озвучил именно президент Рональд Рейган — такой же ставленник Республиканской партии, как и сам Дональд Трамп. Впоследствии эту максиму публично поддержал и Михаил Горбачёв. О своей готовности вновь подтвердить ее заявило в 2019 году и нынешнее российское руководство. Но оно не получило позитивного отклика в Белом доме ни тогда, ни в 2020 году.

Изложенные особенности нынешней американской ядерной стратегии позволяют однозначно квалифицировать ее как «безусловное наступательное ядерное сдерживание», что радикально отличает ее от российской ядерной доктрины, которая также в лапидарном виде может быть охарактеризована как «условное оборонительное ядерное сдерживание».

Одновременно Соединенные Штаты продолжают бесконтрольно развивать свою глобальную систему ПРО, делая упор на ее развертывании на передовых рубежах близ России и КНР. При этом широко используются противоракетные средства морского и наземного базирования, максимально выдвинутые поближе к их территориям. Хотя новые российские ударные системы преодоления «противоракетного щита» уже названы и против них в Пентагоне до сих пор не найдено никаких средств противодействия, нельзя полностью игнорировать эту растущую угрозу, например, от подобных средств морского базирования, поскольку корабельные пусковые установки ПРО ВМС США к 2042 году будут установлены приблизительно на их 90 боевых кораблях, что составит 25% от их общего корабельного состава из 355 кораблей [5].

Исходящая от американской системы опасность перехвата баллистических и крылатых ракет кроется также в возможности загрузки в пусковые установки вместо оборонительных ракет-перехватчиков отдельных наступательных видов вооружений в виде крылатых ракет типа «Томагавк» и высокоточных гиперзвуковых систем вооружений, например, на операционных базах ПРО США в Румынии и Польше, а также в перспективе — размещение ударных систем ПРО на космических орбитах.

Голословные обвинения

Несмотря на все эти очевидные обстоятельства, представители администрации Дональда Трампа многократно делали публичные заявления, в которых попытались переложить всю ответственность на возникший тупик в процессе КНВ исключительно на Россию, обвинивее в нарушении «почти всех договоров» в названной области, а также «в понижении порога применения ядерного оружия».

Среди таких «нарушений» Вашингтон неоднократно называл Договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД), двусторонние российско-американские «президентские инициативы» 1991-1992 годов, Конвенцию о запрещении химического оружия (КЗХО) и Договор об обычных вооруженных сил в Европе (ДОВСЕ). Практически весь 2020 год в заявлениях американских должностных лиц и экспертного сообщества в США звучало оправдание их одностороннего выхода из ДРСМД «несоблюдением» его российской стороной путем создания и развертывания оперативно-тактической ракеты 9М729 или по классификации НАТО SSC-8.

Москва была также обвинена в принятии «крайне провокационной» ядерной доктрины в связи с утверждением в июне 2020 года документа «Об Основах государственной политики Российской Федерации в области ядерного сдерживания». Российской стороне необоснованно приписывалось использование военно-стратегической установки «эскалация ради деэскалации», которая полностью отсутствовала во всех предыдущих военных доктринах России. Она также не обозначена в ее июньских Основах государственной политики в области ядерного сдерживания.

Затронув тему «понижения порога применения ядерного оружия» российской стороной, многие американские государственные деятели и представители академического сообщества так и не привели никаких конкретных доказательств по этому поводу. Подобных положений нет ни в «ядерном разделе» действующей Военной доктрины России, одобренной в декабре 2014 года, ни в упоминавшихся Основах ее государственной политики в области ядерного сдерживания.

России также подвергалась критике за сохранение в ее Вооруженных силах тактического ядерного оружия, словно его никогда не было и до сих пор нет в американском ядерном арсенале и как будто Москва ни разу не ставила вопрос о полном выводе таких ядерных вооружений США из Европы, где Пентагон развернул его почти 70 лет тому назад. Американская сторона игнорировала реальный факт: российское ядерное оружие тактического назначения уже давно не размещается за пределами Российской Федерации. К середине 90-х годов оно было полностью и безвозвратно вывезено из Беларуси, Казахстана и Украины на российскую территорию и размещено в централизованных базах хранения.

Российская Федерация полностью выполнила «президентские инициативы» 1991-1992 годов: она вне переговорного процесса или взаимных договоренностей на три четверти добровольно сократила количество собственных тактических ядерных боезарядов в тот период времени, а также не объявляла об их наращивании.

Что касается ДРСМД, то не Россия, а именно США за последние 20 лет до его денонсации ими в августе 2019 года нарушили этот договор 117 раз, когда при проверке эффективности ракет-перехватчиков глобальной системы ПРО они реально использовали в качестве ракет-мишеней ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, запрещенные этим договорным актом.

Россия была обвинена в «причастности» к «нарушению» КЗХО в связи с утверждениями об «отравлении» отца и дочери Скрипалей в английском городке Солсбери в 2018 году неким нервно-паралитическим веществом, обозначенным русским словом «Новичок», которое в России не производится. Москва вообще не имела к этому эпизоду никакого отношения, поскольку к отравлению Сергея и Юлии Скрипаль были причастны британские или американские спецслужбы, которые могли использовать отравляющее вещество «Freshman» [6], скорее всего произведенное в секретной химической лаборатории в британском городке Порт-он-Даун, расположенном недалеко от Солсбери, где тогда находились эти пострадавшие.

Что же касается международной Конвенции о запрещении химического оружия, то именно Вашингтон под надуманным предлогом (из-за нехватки денежных средств) приостановил ликвидацию огромных запасов собственного химического оружия, несмотря на ранее взятые на себя обязательства.

С реализацией ДОВСЕ-1А группой стран-членов НАТО, подписавших его, сложилась явно парадоксальная ситуация: американская сторонаи остальные участники этой договоренности, входящие в трансатлантический альянс, наотрез отказались ратифицировать его в полном составе — в отличие от России, которая сделала это.

Негативными, но бездоказательными являются высказывания высокопоставленных американских представителей относительно военной деятельности России в космическом пространстве, которые также неоднократно звучали в 2020 году в США и многих государствах, входящих в НАТО.

Складывается впечатление, что многие заявления по обеспечению контроля над вооружениями были сделаны администрацией Дональда Трампа в качестве средства информационно-политического давления на российскую сторону с тем, чтобы оправдать свой неконструктивный подход к этой теме.

Перспективы

Джозеф Байден, одержавший победу на ноябрьских выборах 2020 года, неоднократно говорил о необходимости поиска новых и сохранения ранее заключенных международных соглашений по контролю над вооружениями. Интересно: каких «новых»? Нет ясности, что он имел в виду.

С одной стороны, будучи вице-президентом в период деятельности администрации Барака Обамы, он демонстрировал себя лишь умеренным сторонником ограничения ракетно-ядерного оружия и укрепления режима его нераспространения. После победы на президентских выборах 2020 года он заявил, что восстановит «контроль над вооружениями и нераспространение» с субстантивной оговоркой: только в качестве центральной опоры «глобального лидерства» Соединенных Штатов. Это очень серьезная оговорка.

Джозеф Байден позитивно реагировал на продление Договора СНВ-3. Его назначенец на пост государственного секретаря Энтони Блинкен утверждал, что новую администрацию интересовал бы максимальный срок его пролонгации — до пяти лет. На конец 2020 года окончательное решение по этому вопросу не было принято. Нет и ясности, как новый президент отреагирует на предложение своего предшественника заморозить количество боезарядов СНВ сторон в каком-то новом соглашении.

Нет сомнений в том, что пришедшая к власти «демократическая» администрация будет продолжать курс на радикальную модернизацию американских ракетно-ядерных вооружений стратегического и тактического назначения; ориентировать нацию на глобальное наращивание средств противоракетной обороны, в том числе морского базирования, а также на совершенствование обычных вооружений, делая при этом упор на их выдвижение поближе к территориям Российской Федерации и КНР, а также ряда других государств.

Похоже, что во внешней и военной политике нового американского руководства, а также в сфере КНВ могут произойти некоторые корректировки, но не столь грандиозные, чтобы испытывать чувство огромного оптимизма. К концу 2020 года имелась конкретика по ограниченным направлениям его предполагаемой деятельности в обозначенной области. Но сохраняются и неопределенности по ключевым проблемам.

По этим причинам деятельность администрации Джозефа Байдена в области КНВ, скорее всего, будет носить двойственный характер. Она будет меняться как в зависимости от развития региональной и глобальной ситуации в стратегической сфере, так и от степени влияния на него ближайшего окружения нового главы государства и его советников.

Но маловероятно, что новая администрация в Вашингтоне во главе с президентом-ставленником от Демократической партии радикально повернет такую линию в русло повышенного прагматизма в области КНВ в целом.

1. «Таскать каштаны из огня для американцев мы не будем». Замглавы МИД РФ Сергей Рябков ответил на претензии со стороны спецпредставителя президента США по контролю над вооружениями // Коммерсантъ. 2020. 22 мая //https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4354955.
2. К боезарядам малой мощности в США относят ядерные боезаряды с мощностью от 5 килотонн и меньше.
3. В МИД России отвергли предлагаемые со стороны США «акты о капитуляции» // RT.2020.18 декабря//https://ru.rt.com/hgbz.
4. МИД назвал условие диалога с США по гиперзвуковому оружию//РИА Новости. 2020. 17 апреля // https://ria.ru/20200417/1570165694.html; Интервью заместителя Министра иностранных дел России С.А. Рябкова журналу «Международная жизнь». 2020. 20 апреля//https://interaffairs.ru/news/show/26067.
5. С США в сфере ПРО взаимодействуют 19 из 30 государств-членов НАТО. См.: WattsR. ADouble-EdgedSword. Ballistic Missile Defense and US Alliances// Naval War College Review. 2020. Winter. P. 63.
6. «Freshman» (англ.) — означает: 1) новичок в классе или школе; 2) студент-первокурсник в вузе.

Автор: В.П. Козин. Источник: Портал МГИМО

Конфликт Франции и Австралии

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "5-я студия" на телеканале "Россия 24".

Эфир от 20 сентября 2021г.

Коренные недостатки «ответов» США и НАТО

2 февраля известная испанская газета «Эль Паис» опубликовала полные тексты конфиденциальных ответов США и НАТО на предложения России по глобальной безопасности, вручённые им в середине декабря прошлого года и размещённые на интернет-сайте МИД России два дня спустя.

Утечка ответов или их сознательная публикация?

Это уже неважно. Госдепартамент США подтвердил, что документ, опубликованный испанской газетой и преподнесённый как письменный ответ Вашингтона на российские предложения о гарантиях безопасности, является подлинным. Об этом заявил руководитель пресс-службы этого внешнеполитического ведомства Нед Прайс. Стоило тогда прятать оба ответных послания от мирового сообщества и просить Москву не публиковать их? Отнюдь.

Структурный анализ этих двух документов коллективного Запада, подготовленных на английском языке, показывает, что они действительно являются подлинными, поскольку содержат традиционные стиль и форму, присущие официальным американо-натовским документам, имеют общепринятые в них сокращения и специфический военно-политический глоссарий. Названные документы соответствуют тем разъяснениям, которые были даны в конце января американским госсекретарём Энтони Блинкеном и генеральным секретарём трансатлантического альянса Йенсом Столтенбергом сразу же после передачи их Москве.

Содержание опубликованных двух ответов, скачанных из «Эль Паис», отражает реальную военно-политическую обстановку в мире, а также позиции противоположных сторон, то есть России, Соединённых Штатов и Североатлантического союза в целом по проблематике, затронутой в ходе их январских переговоров и в двух предложенных проектах соглашений.

Общая оценка двух ответов

Каковы же наиболее важные особенности обнародованных в испанской газете ответов Вашингтона и Брюсселя?

Они отличаются по форме и объёму: американский вариант имеет 7 пунктов и размещён на пяти страницах, натовский - содержит 12 пунктов, которые изложены на четырёх страницах.

Но в субстантивном плане оба документа не противоречат друг другу, хотя выдвинутые в них практические предложения детализированы по-разному в силу специфического круга нерешённых проблем, которые интересуют Вашингтон и штаб-квартиру НАТО в Брюсселе, а также с учётом отдельных видов вооружений, которыми они располагают и управляют.

О трёх существенных недостатках изложенных ответов уже дважды говорил президент России Владимир Путин. Это было сделано им в ходе телефонного разговора с президентом Франции и на пресс-конференции с премьер-министром Венгрии. Глава российского государства обратил внимание, что в представленных документах не были учтены принципиальные озабоченности России.

В этом контексте он назвал три существенных недостатка: подтверждение Вашингтоном и Брюсселем политики «открытых дверей в НАТО», сохранение размещения ударных систем вооружений вблизи российских границ, а также твёрдое нежелание вернуть комбинированную военную машину блока, развёрнутую и наращиваемую в Европе, на позиции 1997 года, когда был подписан Основополагающий акт Россия-НАТО.

К общим негативным ключевым характеристикам американо-натовских ответов необходимо также отнести следующие особенности.

В целом они повторяют уже хорошо известные позиции Соединённых Штатов и трансатлантического альянса по военно-политической проблематике в отношениях с Российской Федерацией, которые были изложены ими ранее в официальных устных публичных и письменных заявлениях на протяжении многих лет. В своём ответе НАТО утверждает, что является «оборонительным» союзом, что не соответствует действительности. Об этом говорят их агрессии против Югославии, Афганистана, Ирака, Ливии и Сирии, а также многих других государств мира.

В американо-натовских ответах выдвигается ряд положений в военно-политической сфере, которые являются либо неосуществимыми в силу полного отсутствия проблемы или реального факта, либо просто неприемлемыми для российской стороны, поскольку могут нанести непоправимый ущерб её национальной безопасности.

Неосуществимые идеи

Неосуществимым является требование вывести российские воинские контингенты из Грузии, Молдовы и Украины. Как хорошо известно всем, но только не в Вашингтоне и Брюсселе, таких российских контингентов просто нет. Нет ни в Грузии, ни на Украине. Тбилиси и Киев дружно подтверждают это. Да, российские миротворческие силы в весьма ограниченном количестве находятся в Приднестровье, но исключительно на основании международных договорённостей. Принципиально важно: они не имеют военного потенциала для ведения наступательных операций.

Однозначно неверным представляется толкование американцами известного положения Основополагающего акта Россия-НАТО о запрете размещения «существенных боевых сил» альянса на территориях входящих в него государств. В последнем пункте своего ответа Вашингтон утверждает, что он воздерживается от этого, в том смысле, что таковых не размещает.

Но реальная картина дислокации американских вооружённых сил в Европе и их оснащение ударными наступательными видами ядерных и неядерных вооружений в настоящее время говорит об обратном. Давно заметна и тенденция к их ещё большему наращиванию. Подготовка нынешним ультранационалистическим украинским режимом масштабной вооружённой агрессии против мирных граждан Донбасса является дополнительным свидетельством таких очевидных явлений.

К сожалению, обнародованные два текста американо-натовских ответов предусматривают не конкретные обязательства по военно-политическим вопросам, а лишь «готовность» рассматривать их до бесконечности на различных дискуссионных площадках: в рамках Совета Россия-НАТО, ОБСЕ, а также в ходе пока в целом безуспешных российско-американских консультаций по стратегической стабильности. Надо обратить внимание на такую деталь: предполагается рассматривать селективно, то есть в разрозненном виде и в отрыве от ключевых принципов укрепления стратегической стабильности, где многие направления органически связаны между собой.

Нарочито туманные идеи

В двух ответах имеются туманные положения.

Туманной представляется запросная позиция Вашингтона об обсуждении вопроса о новых видах средств доставки систем межконтинентальной дальности в ядерном снаряжении, то есть способных преодолевать расстояния от 5 500 км и далее. Она продиктована стремлением ликвидировать наши новые перспективные виды вооружений, которые ещё не очень скоро появятся в стратегических ядерных силах США.

Какой прок от обсуждения ядерных стратегий США и России, если американская сторона придерживается концепции нанесения первого ядерного удара с 1945 года и не намерена её менять?

Тупиковым представляется призыв НАТО, обращённый только к России: возобновить выполнения Договора об обычных силах в Европе. Россия его и подписала, и ратифицировала. США и другие страны альянса подписали, но не ратифицировали его. Никто из этих подписантов. Ну и к кому тогда следует обратить этот призыв?

Аналогичная ситуация просматривается с натовским ответом. Почему-то призыв к воздержанию от испытаний противоспутниковых систем обращён только к России. А к Соединённым Штатам, проводящим такие испытания, он не приемлем?

Далее. Американский ответ предлагает рассмотреть дополнительные меры по снижению конфликтов к действующему двустороннему Соглашению о предотвращении инцидентов на море и в воздушном пространстве над ним 1972 года. Каким образом? Нет ясности. Российская сторона уже многократно предлагала американским визави распространить его положения на подводные лодки сторон, находящиеся в подводном положении. Цель? Устранить случаи столкновении субмарин сторон под водой, когда американские подводные лодки приближались к зонам боевой подготовки нашего ВМФ. Реакция американских контрагентов всегда была одной и той же: отказать. Мотивы? Мол, нельзя вводить «запретительные квадраты» в Мировом океане. А Москва и не стремилась к этому.

Неприемлемые положения

Неприемлемым предложением является, например, идея рассмотреть вопрос о неразмещении американского ядерного оружия только в государствах Восточной Европы, оставляя его в центральной части европейского континента (в Италии и ФРГ) или в западном регионе (в Бельгии и Нидерландах), а также в Азии, то есть в Турции.

Не может быть удовлетворена попытка Соединённых Штатов вновь обвинить Россию в «нарушениях» Договора о ликвидации РСМД, из которого они вышли инициативно и в одностороннем порядке под надуманными предлогами, хотя сами нарушили его 117 раз за двадцать лет до его денонсации.

Это было реализовано во время проверок эффективности системы ПРО США, когда их ракеты-перехватчики перехватывали неуничтоженные национальные ракеты средней дальности в качестве практических мишеней. Российских же «нарушений» такого договора пока никто документально не доказал.

Неприемлемым является требование Вашингтона запретить размещение ракет «Искандер» на российской территории в отсутствие Договора о ликвидации РСМД, под положения которого они не подпадали бы в случае его сохранения в прежнем виде.

Используемый в двух западных посланиях в адрес России термин «нестратегическое ядерное оружие» призван изъять из повестки дня каких-то будущих потенциальных переговоров на эту тему ядерные авиабомбы США, которые устанавливаются на их тяжёлые стратегические бомбардировщики существующего и нового типа.

Вряд ли российскую сторону устроит инициатива обменяться инспекционными группами - с посещением российскими представителями объектов ПРО США в Румынии и Польше на предмет неразмещения (как заверяет Пентагон) в их пусковых установках «Мк-41» крылатых ракет «Томагавк», а американскими - двух неуточнённых российских объектов «по выбору».

Во-первых, после отъезда российских инспекторов из двух оперативных противоракетных баз в их универсальные пусковые установки могут быть быстро загружены ударные «Томагавки», а в перспективе и гиперзвуковые системы в качестве наступательных ударных вооружений.

Во-вторых, данная «инспекционная инициатива» не приведёт к ликвидации таких комбинированных американских военных баз в этих двух государствах НАТО. От неё российская сторона уже однажды отказывалась.

Странным, если не сказать больше, является предложение американской стороны консультироваться с Киевом по следующему вопросу: «воздерживаться от развёртывания наступательных ракетных систем наземного базирования и постоянных сил с боевой задачей на территории Украины». А Москва никогда не собиралась и не собирается развёртывать свои ракетные системы наступательного характера и свои вооружённые силы на территории этого соседнего государства.

Неприемлемой для России является совместная позиция Вашингтона и Брюсселя о том, что Крым не принадлежит России и что российские войска должны быть выведены оттуда. В американском тексте ответа бездоказательно повторена фальшивая цифра о присутствии российских войск у границ с Украиной (100 тысяч человек).

В рамках своей же активно продвигаемой политики «деэскалации напряжённости вокруг Украины» такое обязательство должны взять на себя в одностороннем порядке США и их союзники по НАТО. Они также должны вывезти свои смертоносные виды оружия, которые они поставили в последние годы и месяцы несостоятельному киевскому режиму, занимающемуся государственным терроризмом в Донбассе почти восемь лет, а также прекратить их новые поставки.

За это время по данным ООН, сообщённым на заседании Совета Безопасности в начале февраля этого года, в результате постоянных обстрелов гражданских объектов на территории ДНР и ЛНР погибли уже около 14 тысяч мирных жителей.

Ну и на какой итог рассчитывают наши визави?

Ответы объединённого Запада на российские декабрьские проекты двух договорных актов преследуют получение односторонних преимуществ для Соединённых Штатов и трансатлантического альянса, так как они направлены на сокращение наиболее перспективных видов вооружений и ограничение военной деятельности России в районах, где США и НАТО уже создали значительную угрозу её национальной безопасности с помощью средств передового базирования и сил быстрого развёртывания.

Принципиально важно: Соединённые Штаты и Североатлантический союз наотрез отказались подписывать российские проекты соглашений по вопросам обеспечения гарантированной равной и неделимой безопасности, переданных им в конце прошлого года.

Они возродили эпоху холодной войны, которая по сравнению с её первой фазой, отличается более мощным военно-силовым противостоянием; грубыми угрозами, несущимися из Вашингтона и из штаб-квартиры НАТО в адрес России; огромными военными расходами альянса и распространением его военной деятельности на пять существующих пространств.

Своими консервативными и негибкими ответами на декабрьский демарш России, содержащий предложения конструктивного и взаимовыгодного характера, Соединённые Штаты и Североатлантический союз подтвердили, что они по-прежнему настроены к ней и враждебно, и надолго, что вызывает необходимость с российской стороны принять асимметрично-симметричные меры противодействия комбинированной растущей угрозе её национальной безопасности.

Иного альтернативного варианта, похоже, не существует.

Автор: Владимир Козин, член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН, Источник: Еженедельник “Звезда”

Космос и мир через 60 лет после Гагарина

12 апреля 2021 года исполняется ровно 60 лет со дня первого полета человека в космос – полета летчика-космонавта СССР Юрия Гагарина. В ту эпоху люди начали мечтать о покорении космоса, о его мирном освоении, но со временем на космос начали глядеть через военный прицел, и тон в этом развороте задали и продолжают задавать американцы.

О некоторых попытках превратить космос в арену противостояния мировых держав, о намерениях перенести гонку вооружений в околоземное пространство, об опасностях этих затей, о позициях России и США в программе «Что происходит?» журнала «Международная жизнь» рассказывает член-корреспондент Академии военных наук Владимир Петрович Козин.

Ведущий Сергей Филатов.

Эфир от 12 апреля 2021г.

 

 

Критический рубеж угроз России достигнут. Либо США их устраняют, либо получают контругрозы - третьего не дано

Россия сделала специальное заявление о проведении диалога с США и другими странами НАТО о необходимости выработки и предоставления ей гарантий безопасности в свете долгосрочного, перманентного, существенного и опасного наращивания вооружённых сил и вооружений трансатлантического альянса в непосредственной близости от территории Российской Федерации

Наращивание вооружённых сил и вооружений НАТО в Европе

В чём заключается это долгосрочное, перманентное, существенное и опасное наращивание вооружённых сил и вооружений альянса с точки зрения национальной безопасности России?

Речь идёт о средствах передового базирования этого самого крупного военного блока в мире, который объединяет тридцать государств, три из которых имеют ядерное оружие и средства его доставки, семь стран располагают ударно-боевыми и информационно-разведывательными средствами противоракетной обороны, двенадцать государств имеют на вооружении боевые корабли океанской зоны действия и практически все из них в общей сложности до 30 тысяч военных самолётов различных типов и функционального назначения.

Этот военный союз расходует на военные цели больше одного триллиона долларов в год и предоставляет своим участникам свыше 800 военных баз, разбросанных по всему земному шару.

Основополагающие военно-стратегические установки этого военного союза предусматривают инициативное использование так называемой чикагской триады - органически связанного силового механизма в виде ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных видов вооружений, которые были объединены в постоянно действующую комбинированную военную структуру на саммите НАТО в Чикаго в мае 2012 года. Примечательно, что она может быть задействована против любого государства мира в любое время и применена без санкции на это Совета Безопасности ООН.  Североатлантический союз уже не раз использовал свои вооружённые силы против суверенных государств на различных континентах земного шара, причём использовал их в неизбирательном виде против мирного гражданского населения суверенных государств.

Если прежде - в период зарождения и первоначального развития альянса - зона его военной ответственности охватывала только территорию стран-участниц, то в настоящее время она в императивном порядке распространяется на весь земной шар.

С середины 50-х годов прошлого столетия на территории четырёх европейских государств, входящих в этот военный блок (Бельгии, Италии, Нидерландов и ФРГ), находится американское тактическое ядерное оружие. В 1979 году в альянсе приняли «двойное решение» о развёртывании баллистических и крылатых ракет средней и меньшей дальности в ядерном снаряжении, нацеленных на Советский Союз, с крайне ограниченным подлётным временем, что затрудняло ему принятие адекватных мер противодействия в случае их применения.

В 2004 году страны-члены НАТО утвердили операцию ВВС альянса под названием «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», ставшую впоследствии по времени применения круглосуточной и круглогодичной. В ней принимают участие половина государств из списочного состава блока, в том числе три ядерных государства западной военной коалиции: Великобритания, США и Франция. Зоной ответственности этой операции является воздушное пространство Литвы, Латвии, Польши и Эстонии, а также над Балтийским морем.

С 2011 года в четырёх морях вокруг европейского континента стали курсировать боевые корабли США, оснащённые боевой информационно-управляющей системой ПРО «Иджис». С 2016 года аналогичная система была установлена на территории Румынии, скоро она появится и на польской земле. Особенность двух названных американских оперативных баз заключается в том, что в универсальные пусковые установки Мк-41 этой противоракетной системы могут загружаться не только оборонительные ракеты-перехватчики, но и ударные наступательные средства в виде крылатых ракет, а в перспективе и гиперзвуковых ракет.

Кроме того, военные аэродромы 19 европейских государств трансатлантического союза могут принимать тяжёлые стратегические бомбардировщики Соединённых Штатов, которые сертифицированы под доставку ядерных боезарядов стратегического назначения. Подобные самолёты уже не раз появлялись в воздушном пространстве Литвы, Латвии, Польши, Румынии, Эстонии и Украины, а также над акваториями Балтийского и Чёрного морей. Были случаи их приближения на расстояние в 20 километров к российской территории.

Подобная вызывающая практика напоминает противостояние времён Карибского кризиса 1962 года, инициативно созданного Соединёнными Штатами путём размещения их ядерных боезарядов мегатонного класса на территории Италии и Турции. Большая разница в том, что советские бомбардировщики-носители ядерного оружия, доставленные тогда в ответ на это на Кубу, не взлетали в воздух и не барражировали у берегов Флориды или в каком-то ином месте близ Соединённых Штатов.

США и НАТО не ратифицировали Договор об обычных вооружённых силах в Европе, наотрез отказались рассматривать российские инициативы о заключении нового Договора о европейской безопасности, полный постатейный проект которого им был передан уже десять лет назад, а также не поддержали российское предложение о принятии моратория на развёртывание новых ракет средней и меньшей дальности на европейском континенте.

Украина в прицеле НАТО

В последнее время выдвижение крупных комбинированных соединений и частей вооружённых сил альянса в направлении российской территории резко возросло. Многократно увеличилась и активность его военной деятельности у российских рубежей. Половина из нескольких сотен военных манёвров и учений, ежегодно проводимых НАТО, имеет антироссийскую направленность и предусматривает вторжение на российскую территорию.

Хотя президент США Джозеф Байден, пока на словах, отказался направить значительный американский воинский контингент на территорию Украины, которая уже восемь последних лет проводит политику геноцида и вооружённой агрессии против мирного населения Донбасса, он не исключил возможности его размещения на территории девяти государств-членов альянса: Болгарии, Венгрии, Литвы, Латвии, Польши, Румынии, Словакии, Чехии и Эстонии.

Но подобная уловка дело в лучшую сторону не меняет: с их территории американские вооружённые силы могут быть быстро переброшены на Украину. В этом случае все названные страны станут прямыми соучастниками создания грандиозного противостояния в Европе, которого не случалось со времён уже другого вооружённого кризиса - Берлинского, также инициированного Вашингтоном годом ранее Карибского.

Продолжается широкое внедрение Соединёнными Штатами и ряда стран НАТО в военную структуру Украины, создание там военных баз и опорных пунктов, привлечение её к провокационным учениям и манёврам наступательного характера, накачка её смертоносным оружием и подгонка её военных наставлений и инструкций под стандарты альянса.

Неизменным остаётся и курс на втягивание Украины в Североатлантический союз. Не исключено её принятие в НАТО летом 2022 года на саммите блока в Мадриде.

Подобные действия чреваты появлением там ударных ракетных комплексов с минимальным подлётным временем к центральной части России, а также других дестабилизирующих вооружений. Такое безответственное поведение создаёт неприемлемые угрозы для национальной безопасности Украины, провоцирует серьёзные военные риски для всех вовлечённых сторон, вплоть до возникновения масштабного вооружённого конфликта в густонаселённой Европе.

Суть российских предложений

В этой связи российское военно-политическое руководство предложило Соединённым Штатам и НАТО разработать, принять и реализовать на деле ответственные и долгосрочные правовые гарантии безопасности, которые исключали бы любое дальнейшее продвижение этого военного блока на восток и размещение угрожающих систем оружия близ западных рубежей России.

В заявлении российского внешнеполитического ведомства от 10 декабря этого года были чётко обозначены два ключевых принципа подготовки и принятия названных гарантий: принять их в конкретный промежуток времени, то есть без проволочек, а также на основе принципа равной и неделимой безопасности.

Подчёркивалось, чтобы Организация по безопасности и сотрудничеству в Европе, где представлены все страны евроатлантического региона, не оставалась в стороне от дискуссий по решению проблем европейской безопасности. Эта организация должна полностью отвечать двум ключевым словам, которые имеются в её названии - «безопасность и сотрудничество».

15 декабря этого года американской стороне были переданы два постатейных проекта: двустороннего договора между Россией и США о гарантиях безопасности, а также многостороннего соглашения о мерах обеспечения безопасности Российской Федерации и государств-членов НАТО.

В этих проектах говорится о необходимости подтверждения Москвой и Североатлантическим альянсом, что они не рассматривают друг друга в качестве противников. Предлагается, чтобы участники договорённости на регулярной и добровольной основе обменивались оценками современных угроз и вызовов безопасности, обеспечивали взаимное информирование о военных учениях и манёврах, основных положениях своих военных доктрин. Предлагается принять обязательство не создавать условий, которые могут быть расценены как угроза другой договаривающейся стороной.

В предложенных документах значительно усилен антиядерный раздел. Ядерной проблеме посвящены три статьи в проекте договора с США.

Стороны обязуются воздерживаться от полётов тяжёлых бомбардировщиков, оснащённых для ядерных или для неядерных вооружений, и нахождения надводных боевых кораблей всех классов, в том числе в рамках союзов, коалиций и организаций, в районах, соответственно, вне национального воздушного пространства и вне национальных территориальных вод, откуда они могут поражать цели на территории другой стороны.

Стороны также обязуются не размещать ракеты средней и меньшей дальности в районах, откуда они могут поражать территорию друг друга; не развёртывать ядерное оружие за рубежом и вернуть уже развёрнутое, ликвидировать инфраструктуру для развёртывания ядерного оружия вне своей территории, не проводить военных учений с отработкой сценариев применения ядерного оружия и не подготавливать военных неядерных стран применять ядерное оружие.

Радикально остро поставлен вопрос о последующем нерасширении альянса. Прописано, что альянс обязуется исключить присоединение к нему Украины, а также других государств. Этот военный союз должен вообще отказаться от ведения военной деятельности на Украине, в государствах Восточной Европы, Закавказья и Центральной Азии.

Зафиксировано, что участники договорённостей не укрепляют свою безопасность за счёт безопасности других.

Российская Федерация и все участники, являвшиеся по состоянию на 27 мая 1997 года государствами-членами НАТО, соответственно, не размещают свои вооружённые силы и вооружения на территории всех других государств Европы в дополнение к силам, размещённым на этой территории по состоянию на 27 мая 1997 года. Эта дата выбрана в связи с подписанием в этот день Основополагающего акта о взаимных отношениях, сотрудничестве и безопасности между Российской Федерацией и Организацией североатлантического договора, который запрещал размещать существенные вооружённые силы альянса на территориях принимаемых в него новых государств.

При передаче названных проектов американской стороне в развёрнутой форме были даны необходимые пояснения логики российского подхода, представлены соответствующие аргументы. При этом было подчёркнуто, что предложенные меры должны быть комплексными и всеобъемлющими, а не выбираться противоположной стороной как блюдо из ресторанного меню. Москва рассчитывает, что на основе представленных проектов договора и соглашения США и НАТО в самое ближайшее время вступят в серьёзные переговоры с Россией по критически важному для поддержания мира и стабильности вопросу.

России нужны качественно новые и реальные гарантии

Постановка российским руководством вопроса о представлении России надёжных гарантий безопасности продиктована тем, что за более чем семидесятилетнюю историю существования НАТО этот военный блок никогда не давал ни Советскому Союзу, ни России твёрдых, конкретных и всеобъемлющих гарантий безопасности.

Например, подписывая договоры по ограничению, а затем и по сокращению СНВ, Вашингтон неизменно сохранял в своих ядерных доктринах положение о нанесении по СССР и России первого ядерного удара. В частности, президент Дональд Трамп включал в одобренную им ядерную стратегию 14 оснований для применения ядерного оружия, в том числе против России и КНР. Начиная с президента Барака Обамы, в период президентства Дональда Трампа и Джозефа Байдена тяжёлая стратегическая авиация Соединённых Штатов стала активно и регулярно проводить полёты в непосредственной близости от российской территории, в ходе которых отрабатываются способы нанесения ядерных ракетно-бомбовых ударов по России (по Калининградской области и Республике Крым), а также Белоруссии.

Новые гарантии безопасности, о которых ставит вопрос Россия в нынешних условиях, могут оказаться действенными и практически значимыми только тогда, когда они будут дополнены определёнными мерами в сфере контроля над вооружениями со стороны Соединённых Штатов и Североатлантического союза.

Практика подготовки договорных актов на таком сложном направлении в прошлом, как, скажем, заключённых между СССР и США, Россией и США в разные периоды времени, показывает, что Вашингтону удавалось навязать Москве в переговорном процессе селективный, то есть выборочный метод решения возникших вопросов.

Он предполагает решение одних вопросов по контролю над вооружениями и одновременно откладывание в сторону других проблем в области безопасности без нахождения по ним конкретных решений. Этот метод не может быть вечным.

Например, заключая с Вашингтоном договоры о сокращении стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений, российская сторона отложила в сторону достижение договорённости по противоракетным системам, которые, вне всякого сомнения, органически связаны друг с другом. Это произошло после одностороннего выхода Вашингтона из Договора по ПРО в 2002 году.

Продлевая до 2026 года Договор СНВ-3, вполне можно было бы поставить перед американской стороной вопрос о прекращении полётов тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков США в непосредственной близости у российских западных и восточных рубежей.

Договариваясь с Вашингтоном по вопросу ликвидации советских и американских ракет средней и меньшей дальности с ядерными боезарядами, тогдашнее советское руководство не настояло на выводе всего американского тактического ядерного оружия с европейского континента на континентальную территорию Соединённых Штатов.

Причём подобное требование не было выдвинуто даже тогда, когда после распада Советского Союза Россия в одностороннем порядке в середине 90-х годов полностью вывезла на свою территорию всё стратегическое и тактическое ядерное оружие, которое до этого размещалось в Белоруссии, Казахстане и на Украине.

В прикладном ключе необходимо более остро ставить перед военно-политическим руководством НАТО вопрос о прекращении операции ВВС альянса «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», об особенностях которой говорилось здесь ранее, тем более, что в ней принимают участие самолёты «двойного назначения» альянса, то есть способные нести как обычные, так и ядерные авиабомбы, в том числе и их новые типы, как, скажем, высокоточные и корректируемые В 61-12. Следует учесть, что если такие авиабомбы будут погружены на американские тяжёлые стратегические бомбардировщики существующих или новых типов, то они смогут выполнять реальные стратегические задачи. Напомним: максимальная мощность ядерного боезаряда такой авиабомбы 50 килотонн, что примерно в три раза больше американской атомной бомбы, сброшенной на Хиросиму.

Сохранение американского тактического ядерного оружия в Европе противоречит Договору о нераспространении ядерного оружия, Основополагающему акту Россия-НАТО, а также договорённостям, достигнутым в результате переговоров «два плюс четыре», то есть между двумя германскими государствами до их объединения, с одной стороны, и Великобританией, СССР, США и Францией, с другой.

Следует также усилить критику ключевых военно-стратегических установок США и НАТО, в которых Российская Федерация именуется не иначе как «агрессор», «аннексор» или «противник» и которые являются однозначно наступательными относительно нашей страны. Такие ярлыки как минимум открывают прямой путь к перманентной конфронтации. А по максимуму - ведут к войне. Неважно к какой: своими или чужими руками. Суть дела не меняется.

Хотя президент Джозеф Байден, как утверждается, работает над адаптацией национальной ядерной стратегии, пока действующая ядерная доктрина Соединённых Штатов, утверждённая его предшественником, предусматривает нанесение американскими ядерными силами первого превентивного и упреждающего ядерного удара по России практически в любое время.

Без взаимного отказа Москвы и Вашингтона от стратегии нанесения первого ядерного удара по территории России и США любые гарантии укрепления взаимной безопасности окажутся неполными. В этой связи вполне можно было бы заключить двустороннее юридически и политически обязывающее соглашение о неприменении первыми ядерного удара против друг друга, а затем и между Россией и Великобританией, между Россией и Францией.

Такую договорённость можно было бы подкрепить соглашением между всеми космическими державами об отказе от совершения любых враждебных актов в отношении их военных и гражданских спутников, находящихся в космическом пространстве. Важно договориться о неприменении противоспутникового оружия против действующих военных спутников сторон, но оговорив право сбивать собственные военные спутники, которые полностью прекратили своё функционирование по различным причинам.

Необходимо учесть, что к настоящему времени в российско-американской повестке дня по проблематике контроля над вооружениями имеются 13 нерешённых вопросов. Сюда входят: проблемы отказа Вашингтона от ратификации ряда договоров в этой сфере, односторонний выход из них, а также категорическое нежелание обсуждать проекты договорных актов по отдельным направлениям.

В свете изложенного России действительно нужны качественно новые и реальные гарантии её национальной безопасности со стороны США и НАТО.

Необходим чёткий военный и военно-технический ответ

В изложенной многоплановой проблеме есть два неоспоримых обстоятельства.

Первое. Внешние военные угрозы и опасности для России слишком велики. Они содержат в себе качественно новую и существенную военную основу для подрыва её национальной безопасности. Они создают мощную материальную силовую базу для начала против неё военных действий.

Второе. Критический потолок противостояния, инициированный Соединёнными Штатами и НАТО, уже достигнут. Как говорят: дальше ехать некуда.

Вполне очевидно, что из созданной ими смертельной опасности долговременного стратегического характера у порога Российской Федерации могут быть только два выхода.

Во-первых, добиваться таких гарантий последовательно, диверсифицированно и любыми средствами. Но только до определённого периода времени, а не вообще в период жизни нынешних и грядущих поколений.

Во-вторых, готовить Соединённым Штатам и НАТО адекватный ответ в случае отказа или затягивания принятия обозначенных предложений, которые являются взаимовыгодными. И только слепой может не видеть, что они реально взаимовыгодны всем сторонам.

Российская сторона уже твёрдо предупредила своих оппонентов (в реальности они уже давно ей не «партнёры»), что отсутствие прогресса в направлении политико-дипломатического решения проблемы предоставления ей субстантивных и предметных гарантий безопасности приведёт к тому, что её ответ будет военным и военно-техническим, за который сполна заплатят Соединённые Штаты и их ближайшие сподвижники по НАТО.

Ответ будет именно таким, а не политико-дипломатическим, который прежде не приводил к позитивным результатам. Это будут серьёзные военные и военно-технические контругрозы в их адрес, которых они заслуживают.

Третьего варианта не существует.

Автор: Владимир Козин, вице-президент Национального института исследований глобальной безопасности, член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН.

Источник: Еженедельник “Звезда”

 

Кто нарушает Договор по РСМД?

На выход США из договора будет дан адекватный ответ

В начале октября 2018 года генеральный секретарь НАТО Йенс Столтенберг и постоянный представитель США при НАТО Кэй Бэйли Хатчисон обвинили Россию в «несоблюдении» Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, который был подписан в 1987 году, указав при этом на ракету российского производства «9М729», которая, якобы, представляет собой его «нарушение». При этом в первоначальном заявлении Кэй Бэйли Хатчисон прозвучали даже беспрецедентные военные угрозы в адрес России.

В своих заявлениях оба высокопоставленных деятеля проявили явный непрофессионализм и некомпетентность при понимании данной проблемы.

Во-первых, эта ракета никак не подпадает под ограничения двустороннего акта 1987 года, о чем российская сторона уже неоднократно давала соответствующие разъяснения американским и натовским контрагентам.

Во-вторых, прежде чем критиковать российскую сторону в этом вопросе нужно просто знать минимальные и максимальные параметры полета ракет средней и меньшей дальности, зафиксированные в этом открытом для всеобщего обозрения тексте договора.

В-третьих, от этих официальных представителей требуется хотя бы элементарное знание уже состоявшегося решения Конгресса США о выделении ассигнований на проведение НИОКР по новой американской крылатой ракеты наземного базирования средней дальности в ядерном снаряжении, которую Пентагон намерен развернуть в Европе, что будет являться прямым нарушением договора 1987 года.

В-четвертых, эти ответственные лица не могут не знать, что США уже 94 раза нарушили этот договор, когда на протяжении последних 17 лет они многократно использовали в качестве учебных ракет как раз запрещенные ракеты средней и меньшей дальности при тестировании эффективности их глобальной системы ПРО. Все эти данные имеются в открытом доступе на официальном Интернет-сайте Управления по противоракетной обороне Пентагона. В этой связи уместен вопрос: означает ли это, что США не уничтожили полностью эти ракеты? Не свидетельствует ли это о том, что они тайно произвели подобные ракеты для проведения учений с ударно-боевыми средствами ПРО?

Подлинная причина необоснованных и недоказанных нападок различных западных деятелей на Россию в привязке к Договору РСМД заключается именно в маскировке третьего и четвертого обстоятельств, упомянутых выше. Есть и еще одна цель: с помощью договора 1987 года добиться ликвидации Россией новых перспективных ракет, которые никак не подходят под его определения. Вашингтон уже три раза предпринимал такие попытки: в отношении двух МБР и одной оперативной ракеты, которые не вписываются в договор. Но они провалились. Провалятся и будущие шаги американской стороны в этом направлении

С другой стороны, следует напомнить и некоторые иные обстоятельства, связанные с этим договором.

В процессе его осуществления были уничтожены 1846 советских и 846 американских ракет этих двух классов с дальностью стрельбы от 500 до 5500 км, а по функциональному предназначению – их баллистические ракеты и крылатые ракеты наземного базирования, оснащенные ядерными боезарядами. 

Ликвидировав названные ракеты к лету 1991 года в глобальном масштабе, обе стороны были полностью удовлетворены тем, что они смогли выполнить все положения столь важной двусторонней договоренности. Но, начиная с июня 2012 года, администрация президента Барака Обамы стала практически постоянно обвинять Российскую Федерацию в нарушении этого договора. После победы на выборах президента-республиканца Дональда Трампа эстафетная палочка в этой критике перешла к нему, который в своих необоснованных изысканиях пошел даже дальше, чем его предшественник.

Сохранится ли этот бессрочный договорный акт еще какое-то время или его ждет судьба Договора об ограничении ПРО 1972 года, который пятнадцать лет назад в одностороннем порядке разорвали Соединенные Штаты?

Складывается впечатление, что он действительно может не сохраниться из-за стабильно деструктивной линии, проявляемой американской стороной к этому договорному акту.  

Выступая на большой пресс-конференции 14 декабря 2017 года, Президент России Владимир Путин заявил, что США уже фактически вышли из этой договоренности. В чем это проявилось?

Это проявилось в том, что, начиная с 2001 года, Вашингтон приступил к интенсивной проверке эффективности национальной системы ПРО, когда ее ракеты-перехватчики в ходе специальных испытаний стали перехватывать учебные баллистические и крылатые ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, подпадавшие под терминологические определения договора 1987 года. В общей сложности с этого времени и до октября 2018 года Пентагон провел 94 таких испытания, а стало быть, допустил 94 нарушения названной договоренности. Факты и особенности проведения таких испытаний подтверждаются пресс-релизами Управления по ПРО Министерства обороны США. По свидетельству авторитетного американского информационного издания «Джейнс дифенс уикли», в 2018 году подобные испытания Пентагоном будут продолжены. А значит, вновь продолжатся и нарушения Вашингтоном договора «Горбачева-Рейгана».

Нарушения указанного договора также проявятся в случае появления у Соединенных Штатов новой мобильно-грунтовой крылатой ракеты наземного базирования (КРНБ) средней дальности двойного назначения, то есть ракеты, которая может быть оснащена не только обычным осколочно-фугасным боезарядом, но и ядерным. Такая ракета может быть создана довольно в короткие сроки, поскольку американцы не утратили технологии ее производства. Ее можно будет без труда устанавливать в 24 универсальные пусковые установки американской системы ПРО наземного базирования, которые уже стоят на боевом дежурстве на военно-воздушной базе Девеселу в Румынии, а также которые появятся через полтора года в Польше под Редзиково, в районе Слупска, недалеко от Калининградской области России. Там также будут сооружены 24 такие пусковые установки, которые имеют двойное назначение, то есть способны загружать как оборонительные, так и наступательные виды ракетных вооружений.

Внесенный в июне 2017 года в американском Конгрессе проект закона об ассигнованиях на национальную оборону на 2018 год содержал конкретный призыв к разработке специальной программы по созданию новой наземной мобильной КРНБ с дальностью стрельбы от 500 до 5500 км, то есть полностью подпадающей под пространственные лимиты договора 1987 года. Документы этого высшего американского законодательного органа разрешили администрации Дональда Трампа полностью или частично приостановить его действие, а также развернуть дополнительные средства ПРО в Европе в дополнение к уже размещенным американским противоракетным средствам наземного и морского базирования.  Вопрос о «нарушениях» российской стороной Договора о ликвидации РСМД был поднят в обновленном «Обзоре ядерной политики» Дональда Трампа – документе, который излагает место и роль ракетно-ядерных сил в оборонной и внешней политике Соединенных Штатов. По свидетельству американского Интернет-издания «Политико» за 2 августа 2017 года, Конгресс движется в направлении, чтобы заставить Пентагон нарушить договор 1987 года.

Согласованный впоследствии законопроект Палаты представителей и Сената США об ассигнованиях на национальную оборону на 2018 год предусмотрел выделение 58 млн. долларов на разработку такой КРНБ. В пояснительных материалах Конгресса указывается, что Соединенные Штаты имеют юридические основания приостановить выполнение Договора о ликвидации РСМД в целом или частично путем отказа от применения ряда его ключевых статей.  18 июня 2018 года Сенат Конгресса США принял законопроект о бюджете и направлениях политики министерства обороны страны на 2019 финансовый год, который по традиции начинается с 1 октября 2018 года. Общий объем финансирования американского оборонного ведомства определен в 716 млрд. долларов.

Из этой суммы около 617 млрд. предназначены непосредственно Пентагону, а остальная часть – на продолжение военных операций за рубежом. В принятый законопроект также была включена статья, которая позволяет властям страны приостановить участие в Договоре о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей в связи с приписываемыми России нарушениями данного документа. «В свете материальных нарушений Российской Федерацией Договора о ликвидации РСМД Соединенные Штаты имеют законное право приостановить действие Договора о ликвидации РСМД полностью или частично до тех пор, пока Российская Федерация будет продолжать нарушать этот договор», - говорится в тексте документа.

Белый дом, как отмечалось в американских СМИ, рассматривает три варианта военного ответа на «нарушения» Россией Договора о ликвидации РСМД: развитие оборонительных противоракетных средств; нанесение упреждающего «контрсилового удара» по нарушающим договор вооружениям, а также использование «возможности для ядерного удара по промышленным центрам противника». При этом нельзя забывать, что американские стратегические и тактические ядерные силы сохраняют неизменной наступательную доктрину нанесения первого упреждающего и превентивного ядерного удара по целой группе государств и безо всяких ограничений наращивают потенциал глобальной противоракетной инфраструктуры. В американском Конгрессе одновременно прозвучали предложения передать союзникам США по Североатлантическому союзу, не связанным обязательствами по договору 1987 года, передовые ракетные технологии или разместить на их территории новые баллистические и крылатые ракеты наземного базирования как это было несколько десятков лет назад. 

Кроме того, в своем подходе к проблематике ракет средней и меньшей дальности российская сторона не может не учитывать, что под их терминологические определения подпадают американские тяжелые беспилотные летательные аппараты, способные нести на борту ракеты различного класса и предназначения.

Москва принимает во внимание и готовность США использовать в перспективе пусковые установки американских оперативных баз ПРО в Румынии и Польше под загрузку гиперзвуковых ударно-боевых ракетных средств большой дальности, создаваемых в рамках стратегии нанесения «молниеносного глобального удара».

С другой стороны, уже на протяжении многих лет Вашингтон так и не доказал того факта, что Россия каким-то образом нарушила этот договорный акт. Подобные обвинения распространяются им для того, чтобы скрыть собственные нарушения договора 1987 года и приготовления к его качественно новым нарушениям. 

Что касается российской стороны, то она действительно ни разу не нарушила названный договор и не намерена выходить из него первой. 

В Российской Федерации считают, что неблагополучная ситуация, возникшая в связи с фактическим и многократным несоблюдением Договора о ликвидации РСМД американской стороной, усиливает продолжающийся процесс планомерного и методичного расшатывания Вашингтоном системы глобальной стратегической стабильности и международной безопасности. Готовность Конгресса США финансировать разработку новой КРНБ средней дальности и попытка заблокировать перспективную  российскую МБР «Рубеж» с помощью договора 1987 года, не имеющего к ней никакого отношения, является одной из главных причин пустых и путаных претензий Вашингтона к Москве по этой проблеме.

Россия по-прежнему готова вести честный и предметный диалог с американской стороной для того, чтобы снимать любые озабоченности в области контроля над вооружениями, включая озабоченности, касающиеся Договора о ликвидации РСМД. Такой диалог можно и нужно вести в рамках Специальной контрольной комиссии по этому договору и на отдельных встречах официальных представителей сторон, посвященных стратегической стабильности и актуальным проблемам в области контроля над вооружениями, но без дутых обвинений. На состоявшейся в середине декабря 2017 года в Женеве 31-ой сессии участники обозначенной комиссии (представители России и США, а также делегации Беларуси, Казахстана и Украины) заявили, что они «будут работать над его сохранением и укреплением». Но, как говорят, слова словами, а дела делами. Это относится исключительно к американской стороне.

Не представляет никакого интереса для России предложение ряда американских конгрессменов и представителей академических кругов договориться о проведении инспекций на местах между Москвой и Вашингтоном дополнительно к этому договору, поскольку, мол, ранее согласованный инспекционный механизм сторонами был полностью использован. Но нужны не новые инспекции, а полное выполнение этого договора американской стороной.

Но с другой стороны, можно было бы вернуться к предложению выработать многосторонний договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности или, по крайней мере, ввести ограничения на их максимальные пределы с учетом того, что 32 государства имеют возможности для их производства. Но США отказываются от реализации этой идеи, хотя ранее поддерживали ее. Представляется, что будет непросто уговорить и многие государства из этого списка присоединиться к такому «расширенному» договору.

Владимир Путин, как российский Президент и Верховный главнокомандующий Вооруженными силами России, сделал несколько заявлений о принципиальной важности относительно договора 1987 года. Это состоялось в ходе его выступлений на заседании Валдайского дискуссионного клуба в 2016 и 2017 годах. В них отражались две простые мысли, два ясных политических послания нынешней американской администрации.

В первом случае Владимир Путин заявил о приверженности России этому договорному акту и о желании придать ему многосторонний характер. Во втором – он подчеркнул, что Москва всегда выполняла и впредь будет выполнять данный договор. Но одновременно им было четко заявлено, что если Вашингтон выйдет из него, то российская сторона даст на это незамедлительный и зеркальный ответ.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: ИнфоРос

Кто украйний?

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “Специальный репортаж” на телеканале “Звезда”

Каков будет ответ Москвы на агрессивные действия Североатлантического альянса, на первый план ставящего защиту Украины?Саммит министров иностранных дел стран НАТО в Риге преподнес сюрприз: главы внешнеполитических ведомств государств Североатлантического альянса на первый план поставили защиту Украины, которая не член блока и не входит в План действий по членству в организации. Почему Брюссель категорически против того, чтобы Россия перегруппировала войска на своей же территории?


В.П. Козин: “НАТО интересует Россия как слабое, дезинтегрированное, блуждающее в потемках государство, не имеющее никакой четкой цели. … В всех официальных документах НАТО последнего десятилетия Российская Федерация именуется как «враг, агрессор или аннексор». … Но должны все четко усвоить – в Киеве, Вашингтоне и в Брюсселе (я имею в виду штаб-квартиру альянса в Брюсселе): они заплатят очень высокую цену, если они хотя бы на миллиметр сунутся на территорию Российской Федерации.


У России есть целый список претензий к НАТО, среди которых: подстрекательство Украины к войне с Россией, постоянные военные учения вблизи российских границ, размещение американских и британских войск в странах Балтии, установка американских систем слежения и противоракетной обороны в Польше и Румынии. Каков будет ответ Москвы на агрессивные действия альянса?

Эфир от 7 декабря 2021г.

Источник: Телеканал“Звезда”.

Ленд-лиз для наследников Бандеры. США стремятся удержать киевский режим на тропе войны

 

9 мая президент США Джозеф Байден подписал закон о ленд-лизе для Украины. Что собой представляет этот закон и на что он направлен? Эти и другие вопросы стали темой интервью, которое дал нашему обозревателю известный политолог и военный аналитик Владимир Козин – ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России.

– Владимир Петрович, в дни, когда человечество отмечало 77-ю годовщину победы над фашистской Германией, в США в силу вступил закон, направленный на наращивание военной помощи Украине…

– И это очень показательный факт. Преследуя собственные военно-политические и финансовые интересы, США усиленно накачивают всевозможным вооружением Украину, где в наши дни правят бал неонацисты. Причём ещё несколько лет назад в американском конгрессе тот же нацбатальон «Азов» называли «омерзительным нацистским формированием» и запрещали поставлять ему оружие. А сегодня не только не вспоминают о фашистской сущности «Азова», но и вовсю восхваляют преступную деятельность его боевиков, как, впрочем, и других подобных украинских вооружённых формирований, запятнавших себя преступлениями против человечности.

А взять само название документа, подписанного Джо Байденом, которое в кратком виде звучит как «Закон о ленд-лизе для защиты демократии на Украине». На мой взгляд, оно является ещё одним свидетельством о полном отсутствии у людей, готовивших и принимавших этот закон, осознания разницы между понятиями «демократия» и «неонацизм».

Следует также отметить, что инициатива о принятии такого закона была выдвинута сенатором-республиканцем Джоном Корнином ещё 19 января этого года, то есть более чем за месяц до начала специальной военной операции России, предпринятой с целью защиты Донбасса, а также демилитаризации и денацификации Украины. И это даёт основание утверждать, что закон разрабатывался специально для того, чтобы поддержать военную агрессию киевского режима против Донецкой и Луганской народных республик. А принят он с целью провоцирования властей «незалежной» на продолжение боевых действий «до последнего украинца».

– И о чём же конкретно идёт речь в этом законе?

– Закон о ленд-лизе упрощает и ускоряет поставки американских вооружений на Украину в течение длительного срока. Он временно отменяет некоторые требования, касающиеся полномочий президента передавать в аренду или лизинг «оборонные средства», если они предназначены для правительства Украины или правительств других восточноевропейских стран, «пострадавших от вторжения России».

В соответствии с законом не позднее чем через 60 дней после даты вступления его в силу президент США должен утвердить ускоренные процедуры для доставки любых оборонных средств, предоставленных в аренду или лизинг правительству Украины. В документе оговорено, что в 2022–2023 финансовые годы, то есть до 1 октября 2024 года, соглашение об аренде или лизинге оборонных средств, подписываемое в соответствии с этим законом, не подпадает под действие определённых положений, которые обычно применяются к соглашениям о ленд-лизе.

В документе нигде не оговаривается тип и вид вооружений, передавае­мых с двумя названными формами их использования украинской стороной. Стало быть, милитаристскому украинскому режиму могут быть поставлены любые виды вооружений и военной техники, которые обозначены в тексте термином в общем виде как «оборонные средства».

Закон о ленд-лизе также предоставляет президенту США расширенные полномочия для заключения соглашений с правительством Украины о предоставлении в аренду или лизинг оборонных средств украинскому правительству или правительствам стран Восточной Европы. Особо оговорено, что любая передача в аренду или лизинг оборонных средств правительству Украины подпадает под действие всех применимых законов, касающихся возврата, возмещения и погашения стоимости оборонных средств, предоставленных в аренду или лизинг иностранным правительствам. Это означает, что украинским налогоплательщикам придётся долгие годы выплачивать завышенную стоимость передаваемых ВСУ различных видов американских вооружений и военной техники.

– Такая же схема применялась и в законе о ленд-лизе, который действовал в годы Второй мировой войны?

– Действительно, по сути в Соединённых Штатах реанимировали закон, который действовал в период Второй мировой войны и который разрешил передавать в аренду или лизинг американским союзникам вооружения и военную технику. Подчеркну лишь, что это сделано с одной существенной разницей. Если тот закон был направлен на достижение победы над фашистской Германией, то нынешний – преследует цель оказания военной помощи ультранационалистическому украинскому режиму.

Нельзя также не отметить, что закон о ленд-лизе во Второй мировой войне сегодня превозносится в США как решающий вклад в разгром фашистской Германии и милитаристской Японии. На самом же деле американские поставки составили за годы войны всего около 4 процентов к военному производству СССР. В то же время они позволили американцам крепче пристегнуть к себе Великобританию, Францию и некоторых других союзников, а также дали значительный толчок значительному обогащению Соединённых Штатов.

Ведь к концу войны Вашингтон предоставил помощь по ленд-лизу на сумму более 49 миллиардов долларов почти сорока странам, из них около 11 миллиардов пришлось на Советский Союз. Этот долг был окончательно погашен Российской Федерацией как страной – продолжателем СССР только в августе 2006 года.

– Но если наша страна с её огромными возможностями так долго рассчитывалась с Соединёнными Штатами, то что ждёт тогда Украину?

– Это в меньшей степени волнует американцев. С одной стороны, их, как всегда, интересует жажда наживы. Ленд-лиз же даёт военно-промышленным компаниям постоянный и надёжный источник доходов, поступающий из заказов государства на производство вооружений и военной техники. Кстати, генеральный директор «Локхид Мартин» Джеймс Таклет, комментируя ситуацию, заявил, что корпорация может сейчас производить 2100 «Джавелинов» в год. Но «мы попытаемся довести это число до четырёх тысяч в год. Наша компания начинает разгон производства прямо сейчас», – добавил он.

А как Украина будет расплачиваться и выкарабкиваться из глубокой долговой ямы, для них это дело другое. Возможно, плодородной землёй, к которой уже присматривался сын Байдена. Или зерном.

И, во-вторых, в политическом отношении ленд-лиз станет мощнейшим инструментом дальнейшего давления на Украину и проведения американской политики в странах Восточной Европе. Причём, похоже, пользоваться им в Вашингтоне рассчитывают не одно десятилетие.

– Тем временем в США готовится новый пакет военной помощи…

– Совершенно верно, не прошло и двух дней после подписания закона о ленд-лизе, как палата представителей конгресса одобрила выделение почти 40 миллиардов долларов на военную, экономическую и гуманитарную помощь киевскому режиму. С запросом о предоставлении её выступил Джо Байден, заявивший, что средства, которые администрация может использовать для поддержки Украины в сфере безопасности, почти исчерпаны. При этом он предупредил, что США придётся приостановить помощь Киеву примерно через десять дней, если конгресс не одобрит его запрос на выделение на эти цели 33 миллиардов долларов. В результате получилась сумма почти в 40 миллиардов, которая в десять раз превзошла предоставленный Украине предыдущий финансовый пакет, который был собран в апреле этого года на аналогичные цели.

В Белом доме приветствовали принятое решение палаты представителей и выразили уверенность, что его одобрит сенат. При этом подчеркнули, что дополнительные ресурсы, которые включены в этот законопроект, позволят Соединённым Штатам направить больше вооружений, таких как артиллерия и бронемашины, а также боеприпасы на Украину. Они же помогут восполнить американские арсеналы и поддержать войска США на территории других стран НАТО.

Таким образом, США ведут себя как двуликий Янус: с одной стороны, на словах выступают за политическое урегулирование украинского кризиса, а с другой – подливают керосин в пламя, которое киевский режим разжёг при прямом и активном содействии Вашингтона.

Источник: "Красная звезда"

 
 

МАГАТЭ, ООН и украинская «грязная» атомная бомба

 

По уточнённым данным, создание «грязной ядерной бомбы» на Украине находится в завершающей стадии. Поэтому у России остаётся только один вариант: чтобы предотвратить ядерную катастрофу, нужно уничтожить производственные мощности и научно-исследовательские центры, которые могут создать такой атомный заряд

Пришёл, увидел, не нашёл

В начале сентября миссия МАГАТЭ во главе с Рафаэлем Гросси посетила Запорожскую АЭС в Энергодаре. Эксперты провели на станции около четырёх часов и сообщили, что собрали много важной информации.

Генеральный директор МАГАТЭ Рафаэль Мариано Гросси уже через месяц разразился заявлением №181/2022, в котором дезавуировал слова своих же экспертов: «Наша техническая и научная оценка результатов, которые мы имеем до сих пор, не выявила никаких свидетельств незаявленной ядерной деятельности». Ничего не выявили и на двух других ядерных объектах Украины. Судя по всему, Киев, заранее договорившись в вашингтонскими кураторами, подготовился к этому визиту, зачистив объекты.


Прямая речь

«Украинские неонацистские войска продолжают обстрелы из западного оружия Запорожской АЭС, что может привести к глобальной катастрофе. К сожалению, визит делегации МАГАТЭ на станцию не привёл к прекращению атак на атомную станцию и осуждению киевского режима со стороны международного сообщества… Представители МАГАТЭ находятся на Запорожской АЭС, видят, что происходит, кто стреляет и откуда. Однако никто не говорит о том, что украинские войска обстреливают атомную электростанцию, а в СМИ нагнетают ажиотаж, обвиняя в этом Россию».

Секретарь Совета безопасности России Николай Патрушев. Совещание с секретарями Совбезов стран СНГ в Москве 3 ноября 2022 г.


Почему вдруг МАГАТЭ и её гендиректор Рафаэль Гросси заняли столь однобокую позицию, хотя должны были проявить беспристрастность и позаботиться о полном сохранении ЗАЭС и остальных подобных станций на украинской территории: трёх, по-прежнему производящих электроэнергию, и одной неработающей, Чернобыльской? Вряд ли Рафаэль Гросси не имеет никакого отношения к резолюции Совета управляющих МАГАТЭ от 3 марта. Такое утверждение лишено элементарной логики.

Однобокость мартовской резолюции

Как известно, российские военнослужащие вступили на территорию ЗАЭС 4 марта 2022 года. Это было продиктовано угрозами со стороны Украины разрушить шесть атомных реакторов, имеющихся на ЗАЭС, и таким способом создать радиоактивное облако.

До обстрелов ЗАЭС из тяжёлых видов вооружений ВСУ открывали огонь и по ЧАЭС. В своё время угрожала применением против населения Донбасса ядерной бомбы и экс-премьер Украины Юлия Тимошенко. Не стал исключением и президент Владимир Зеленский.

Но вернёмся к резолюции Совета управляющих, где уже в первом пункте выражалось сожаление по поводу «действий Российской Федерации в Украине, включая силовой захват контроля над ядерными объектами». Но в том-то и дело, что Россия не захватывала Чернобыльскую и Запорожскую АЭС, а ввела ограниченный вооружённый контингент - исключительно для безопасности атомных энергетических объектов, возможными происшествиями на которых киевское руководство шантажировало всю Европу.

Лживыми являлись и голословные положения второго пункта резолюции, в котором была выражена «серьёзная озабоченность тем, что агрессия Российской Федерации препятствует Агентству в полной мере и безопасно проводить деятельность по проверке гарантий безопасности на украинских ядерных установках». Но где и когда Москва препятствовала МАГАТЭ? Наоборот, были созданы самые благоприятные условия, однако Агентство не торопилось, прикрываясь тезисом об отсутствии безопасности, хотя вполне могла бы обратиться к Зеленскому с просьбой прекратить огонь на время пребывания инспекционной группы на станции.

В третьем пункте документа Совет управляющих МАГАТЭ призвал Российскую Федерацию немедленно прекратить все действия на ЧАЭС и любом другом ядерном украинском энергообъекте - чтобы компетентные органы Украины могли восстановить полный контроль над ядерными объектами страны. Дескать, такая мера позволила бы Агентству установить учёт и контроль за радиоактивными материалами. Очень странная формулировка...

Ведь Россия никогда не препятствовала нормальному функционированию ЧАЭС и ЗАЭС, где работали украинские атомщики, с которыми российская сторона поддерживала нормальные профессиональные отношения, как раз и направленные на обеспечение ядерной безопасности.

С другой стороны, в резолюции не было сказано ни слова упрёка в адрес киевского режима, который ещё в 2014 году начал масштабную агрессию против граждан Донбасса, а 14 февраля 2022 года приступил к очередной по счёту фазе геноцида и террора.

Инспекционный спектакль

Как известно, по пути на ЗАЭС Рафаэль Гросси посетил президента Зеленского в Киеве. Инспекторская группа во главе с генеральным директором МАГАТЭ сумела прибыть на станцию только в начале сентября. По итогам работы миссии 6 сентября был опубликован доклад Рафаэля Гросси под названием «Ядерная защита, физическая ядерная безопасность и гарантии на Украине» объёмом в 52 страницы.

Документ вызвал противоречивые оценки в России. С одной стороны, по словам постоянного представителя Российской Федерации при международных организациях в Вене Михаила Ульянова на сессии Совета управляющих МАГАТЭ было отмечено, что доклад Рафаэля Гросси готовился в спешке и имеет ряд изъянов. Отмечалось, что в документе отсутствует всякое упоминание о том, с какой именно стороны вёлся обстрел ЗАЭС. Российский представитель справедливо отметил: «Молчание на этот счёт лишь поощряет украинскую сторону продолжать ракетно-артиллерийские удары [по ЗАЭС]. Более того, отсутствие чётких и объективных оценок даёт простор для инсинуаций».


Кстати

По данным Министерства обороны России, с 18 июля по середину сентября 2022 года украинские вооружённые формирования обстреливали территорию ЗАЭС и её инфраструктуру свыше 30 раз, выпустив более 120 артиллерийских снарядов и применив не менее 16 дронов-камикадзе. Город-спутник ЗАЭС Энергодар, в котором проживают сотрудники станции и члены их семей, за тот же период подвергался обстрелам более 70 раз. В результате обстрелов были жертвы и пострадавшие.


Страны НАТО, являясь прямыми пособниками геноцида Зеленского, знают о том, что обстрелы ЗАЭС осуществляла и осуществляет только украинская сторона, и стали воздерживаться от абсурдных утверждений, будто русские на ЗАЭС систематически обстреливают сами себя. Но если западные страны всерьёз озабочены опасностью ядерной катастрофы, они должны прямо призвать Киев прекратить безрассудные действия. Вот только почему-то не спешат.

Глас вопиющих к МАГАТЭ не услышан

В ходе визита миссии МАГАТЭ на ЗАЭС жители Энергодара передали Рафаэлю Гросси коллективное обращение в связи с непрекращающимися обстрелами ЗАЭС и Энергодара украинской стороной», а также «решительно осудить действия руководства Украины по эскалации ситуации вокруг Запорожской АЭС и предупредить об ответственности перед мировым сообществом в случае продолжения обстрелов станции».

Под этим обращением подписались свыше 20 тысяч жителей региона. К сожалению, в докладе генерального директора не нашлось места даже для упоминания об этом обращении.

Михаил Ульянов подчеркнул, что существует реальная ядерная угроза, вызванная обстрелами ЗАЭС со стороны ВСУ. «Здесь не должно быть места для политиканства», - справедливо подытожил он.

Уже 15 сентября Совет управляющих МАГАТЭ большинством голосов принял ещё одну резолюцию по вопросам обеспечения ядерной безопасности на Украине, половина содержания которой основано на ложных посылах, не имеющих ничего общего с действительностью. Резолюция полностью обходит стороной главную проблему, связанную с систематическими украинскими обстрелами ЗАЭС. Зато утверждается, будто непосредственная угроза исходит якобы от присутствия на станции российских войск.

Никаких доказательств как не было, так и нет. Зато полно вещественных доказательств многочисленных артиллерийско-ракетных ударов по ЗАЭС со стороны ВСУ - фрагментов снарядов и ракет РСЗО, пробоин в стенах вспомогательных зданий и в хранилищах ядерного топлива.

Однако 17 октября руководитель МАГАТЭ выступил с очередным заявлением, в котором снова использовал метод наведения тени на плетень, где привёл сообщение украинского Энергоатома о том, что кто-то, дескать, снова обстрелял ЗАЭС. Но раз об этом сообщает Киев, значит станцию обстреляла не украинская сторона... А кто же? Логически получается, что Россия, хотя с пятого октября Запорожская область стала полноправным субъектом Российской Федерации. При этом сообщения России об очередном обстреле ЗАЭС с украинской стороны в этом документе обнаружить не удалось.

Политические пустышки «с двойным дном» никто обсуждать не станет

К сожалению, обстрелы ЗАЭС украинскими вооружёнными силами продолжаются до сих пор. Так, 2 ноября Минобороны России проинформировало, что артиллерией ВСУ выпущено девять снарядов по району промышленной зоны ТЭЦ города Энергодара и территории, прилегающей к ЗАЭС. Но буквально на следующий день шеф МАГАТЭ опять заявил об обстрелах ЗАЭС, ссылаясь на украинский «Энергоатом» - дескать, Киев опять ни при чём... И что из того, что было чётко установлено: стрельба велась из подконтрольных Украине Марганца и Червоногригоровки Днепропетровской области. Гросси также не упомянул о взрывчатке, заложенной спецслужбами Украины на самой станции.

И даже постоянное присутствие на станции сначала двух, а затем четырёх сотрудников Агентства в качестве наблюдателей не остановило украинские обстрелы.

При этом о так называемой демилитаризации ЗАЭС, что раньше предлагал Рафаэль Гросси, речи быть не может, поскольку станция никогда не была «милитаризована» российской стороной. Боевых российских армейских подразделений и тяжёлых вооружений на АЗС не было и нет. Присутствуют только охранные подразделения Росгвардии, специалисты войск РХБЗ, отвечающие за радиологическую безопасность, и десять сотрудников Росатома.

Что же подразумевалось под «демилитаризацией»? По всей видимости Гросси было необходимо, чтобы Россия вывела из ЗАЭС Росгвардию, а её место заняли бы ВСУ, и Киев продолжил шантажировать сопредельные государства ядерной угрозой. Например, сымитировать аварию на ЗАЭС по типу чернобыльской трагедии 1986 года с последующим обвинением России в её организации и осуществлении.

Появилась у Гросси и обновлённая идея, подброшенная из Вашингтона, - дескать, надо создать вокруг станции «зону ядерной защиты и физической ядерной безопасности». Но это ведь очередная пустышка, правда «с двойным дном», поэтому обсуждать её нет никакого смысла.

На этом фоне зловещими выглядят недавние угрозы Киева применить на своей территории «грязную ядерную бомбу» или ядерный боезаряд малой мощности, чтобы обвинить в этом Россию. Для такой цели Зеленский может использовать и Запорожскую АЭС, с него станется.

Примечательно, что три ядерные державы Запада, министров обороны которых проинформировал глава российского военного ведомства Сергей Шойгу о «радиоактивных» замыслах Киева, в совместном заявлении своих министерств иностранных дел буквально на следующий день отвергли такую возможность. По сути дела, выдали Зеленскому карт-бланш на атомную провокацию.

В таких условиях у России остаётся только один вариант действий: чтобы предотвратить ядерную катастрофу, которую готовит киевская хунта, нужно уничтожить все те производственные мощности и научно-исследовательские центры на Украине, которые могут создать «грязный» атомный заряд или радиологическое оружие с последующим радиоактивным заражением значительных европейских пространств.

Автор: В.П. Козин.  Источник: Еженедельник «Звезда» 

 

Милитаризация Арктики: противостояние сверхдержав

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "ОТРажение" на канале ОТР

"Арктику-то и не заметили. США долгие годы не рассматривали регион с точки зрения своих интересов. Сейчас спохватились, тревожат их наши прочные позиции в Арктике, в апреле Североатлантический Альянс провел там учения Cold Response - «Холодный ответ». Кстати, под нашим присмотром - со спутников".

Эфир от 19 апреля 2022г.

Мир с ракетой у виска

По вине Запада не только произошла деградация системы контроля над вооружениями, но и возникла опасность сползания планеты в непредсказуемый для человечества конфликт.

В конце мая исполнилось 50 лет после подписания трёх договоров между Москвой и Вашингтоном, которые в определённой мере положили начало созданию системы контроля над вооружениями и содействовали в своё время укреплению стратегической стабильности в мире. Речь идёт о подписанных 26 мая 1972 года Договоре об ограничении систем противоракетной обороны и Временном соглашении между США и СССР о мерах по ограничению стратегических наступательных вооружений, получившем название ОСВ-1, а также о заключённом 25 мая того же года двустороннем Соглашении о предотвращении инцидентов в открытом море и в воздушном пространстве над ним. На эту тему состоялся разговор нашего обозревателя с известным политологом Владимиром Козиным, ведущим экспертом Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, членом-корреспондентом Академии военных наук России.

– Владимир Петрович, какова основная особенность этих трёх договорных актов?

– Всех их объединяет одна общая суть – они относятся к договорённостям, достигнутым в сфере международных механизмов контроля над вооружениями. Одновременно каждый из них имеет собственное предназначение, касающееся конкретной и специфической сферы действия, что следует из их названия. Например, Договор по ПРО установил наиболее приемлемый баланс между стратегическими наступательными и оборонительными вооружениями сторон исходя из того, что ни одна из сторон не сможет обеспечить защиту своей территории ограниченным количеством ракет-перехватчиков системы ПРО. Такая мера, по мнению инициаторов достижения этой договорённости, должна была не позволить стороне, совершившей нападение первой, защититься от массированного ракетно-ядерного удара возмездия. На этом представлении строился в то время фундамент стратегической стабильности между СССР и США.

Соглашение об ОСВ-1 предусматривало ограничение количества баллистических ракет наземного и морского базирования и пусковых установок обеих сторон на том уровне, на котором они находились на момент его подписания. Документ запрещал строительство дополнительных стационарных пусковых установок (ПУ) МБР с 1 июля 1972 года. Стороны обязались ограничить ПУ БРПЛ и тогдашние современные подводные лодки с БРПЛ числом, находящихся в боевом составе и, стадии строительства на дату подписания указанного соглашения.

Соглашение о предотвращении инцидентов в открытом море и в воздушном пространстве над ним запрещало опасное сближение военно-морских и военно-воздушных судов СССР и США во время движения в Мировом океане или в международном воздушном пространстве. Тем самым оно юридически закрепило существовавшую тогда обоюдную заинтересованность Москвы и Вашингтона обеспечивать безопасность военно-морских и военно-воздушных судов, находящихся в международных водах за внешним пределом территориальных вод сторон или в воздушном пространстве над ними.

– Были ли полезны названные договорённости, например для сдерживания гонки соответствующих видов вооружений, на которые они распространялись?

– Да, они однозначно были взаимополезными. Скажем, Договор по ПРО, который, по словам тогдашних советских и американских руководителей, стал краеугольным камнем стратегической стабильности, ограничил гонку противоракетных вооружений. Сначала по этому договору количество ракет-перехватчиков для каждой стороны было ограничено 200 единицами, развёрнутыми в двух районах «противоракетного щита». Но впоследствии, по протоколу к нему, подписанному в 1974 году, Москва и Вашингтон снизили число таких районов до одного с количеством не более по 100 ракет-перехватчиков для каждого участника.

Соглашение об ОСВ-1 и последовавшее за ним Соглашение об ОСВ-2 приостановили гонку ракетно-ядерных вооружений, а также послужили основой для разработки договоров качественно новой категории – уже о физическом сокращении стратегических наступательных вооружений: например, СНВ-1 (1991 г.), СНВ-2 (1993 г.), СНП (2002 г.) – промежуточного Соглашения о сокращении стратегических наступательных потенциалов, а также СНВ-3 (2010 г.). Все они привели к постепенному снижению количества стратегических ракетно-ядерных вооружений сторон, а в дальнейшем и к снижению их качественных характеристик, запретив, например, на какой-то период времени установку разделяющихся ядерных головных частей индивидуального наведения на одной МБР, снизив их количество устанавливаемых боезарядов до единицы. Иными словами, превратили их в моноблочные.

В итоге длительного переговорного процесса и поэтапной динамики сокращений СНВ сторон общее количество стратегических ядерных боезарядов, а также их носителей и пусковых установок значительно уменьшилось по сравнению с первоначальными «потолками» созданных ракетно-ядерных вооружений стратегического назначения.

В частности, Договор СНВ-3, срок действия которого был продлён до 2026 года, предусматривает сохранение в стратегическом ракетно-ядерном балансе сторон по 1550 ядерных боезарядов стратегического назначения и по 800 развёрнутых и неразвёрнутых ПУ МБР и БРПЛ для каждой стороны, а также их тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков.

Наконец, Соглашение между СССР и США о предотвращении инцидентов в открытом море и в воздушном пространстве над ним привело к снижению эпизодов с опасным приближением боевых кораблей и вспомогательных судов сторон на океанских и морских пространствах, а также их боевых воздушных судов в воздушном пространстве над ними. Оно также послужило основой для заключения аналогичных соглашений Советского Союза, а затем и России с ведущими военно-морскими и военно-воздушными государствами мира как входящими в НАТО (например, с Великобританией, Италией, Францией, ФРГ и некоторыми другими), так и не являющимися участниками Трансатлантического альянса (например, с Японией и Южной Кореей).

На основе подписанных подобных соглашений были инициированы и стали проводиться периодические обзорные встречи делегаций государств-участников с анализом хода их выполнения и для урегулирования иногда возникавших практических вопросов.

К сожалению, названное соглашение не распространяется на подводные лодки сторон, находящиеся в погружённом положении. По вине американской стороны, направлявших свои атомные ракетно-ядерные и многоцелевые ударные подводные лодки в зону боевой подготовки Северного флота ВМФ СССР, произошло несколько случаев их столкновений с советскими субмаринами под водой. Американская сторона уже не раз отказывалась от российской инициативы распространить положения такого соглашения на подводные лодки, находящиеся в погружённом состоянии участников договорённости.

– Известно, что из трёх названных договорных актов два из них прекратили своё существование: Договор по ПРО в одностороннем и инициативном порядке был денонсирован американской стороной в 2002 году, а Соглашение об ОСВ-1 прекратило своё существование по истечении срока его действия и в результате его замены последующим Соглашением об ОСВ-2…

– Пентагон, судя по всему, не откажется от дальнейшего развития американского глобального «противоракетного щита» как в количественном измерении, то есть путём наращивания общего запаса ракет-перехватчиков, главным образом, морского базирования, так и в качественном отношении – за счёт повышения точности их наведения, увеличения скорости полёта и оснащения их разделяющими головными частями индивидуального наведения.

С другой стороны, у России теперь есть эффективные средства преодоления глобальной американской системы противоракетной обороны практически с любого направления. Эти средства нивелируют американскую инфраструктуру перехвата баллистических и крылатых ракет, несмотря на огромные денежные средства, выделенные Соединёнными Штатами на создание эшелонированной системы ПРО наземного, морского и космического базирования.

Выскажу также мнение, что в нынешней ситуации российской стороне приходится с большой осторожностью относиться к решению многоплановой проблемы обеспечения контроля над вооружениями, учитывая, что Вашингтон готов, как он продемонстрировал это уже не раз, в любой момент отказаться от соглашения, не устраивающего его по каким-либо соображениям.

К сожалению, сегодня, когда правящие круги США поставили своей целью разрушить нашу страну и в Вашингтоне появляются заявления о допустимости ядерной войны, даже рассуждать о каком-то новом соглашении в системе контроля над вооружениями не приходится. Хотя совершенно очевидно, что мир по вине Запада оказался, образно говоря, с ракетой у виска. Многие страны приступили к разработке новейших видов вооружений, в том числе проходящих по категории «обычных», которые способны доставлять боеголовки до целей с гиперзвуковой скоростью, перемещаясь на низких высотах, что затрудняет их обнаружение. По сути, начата милитаризация космоса. Нарастает угроза создания и распространения биологического оружия…

Одним словом, ситуация развивается по крайне опасному сценарию, чреватому самыми непредсказуемыми последствиями для человечества. Подлили масла в огонь киевские власти, заговорившие в начале этого года о ядерном оружии, о своём вступлении в НАТО, готовности военным путём вернуть себе Крым. Предстоит урегулировать украинский конфликт, положив в основу полную денацификацию этой страны. А для этого Западу следует прекратить всякую военную помощь киевскому режиму и заставить его сесть за стол переговоров. Страны НАТО должны конструктивно подойти к рассмотрению прошлогодних декабрьских предложений Москвы о предоставлении взаимных гарантий.

Лишь в этом случае можно говорить о восстановлении доверия и нормализации ситуации, что позволит приступить к переговорному процессу о дальнейшем контроле над вооружениями, являющимся важнейшим фактором укрепления международной безопасности, от успехов которого, без преувеличений, зависят благополучие и выживание человечества.

Беседовал Владимир Кузарь, Источник: «Красная звезда»

 

 

Миру необходим контроль над вооружениями

Российскую инициативу поддержало мировое сообщество, заинтересованное в глобальной стабильности

Сессия Генеральной Ассамблеи ООН на минувшей неделе, 7 декабря, приняла резолюцию по укреплению системы контроля над вооружениями, предложенную Российской Федерацией. Резолюция под названием «Укрепление и развитие системы договоров и соглашений по контролю над вооружениями, разоружению и нераспространению» призывает государства, которые подписались под соответствующими документами, выполнять все их положения в полном объёме. С просьбой прокомментировать этот документ и нынешнее состояние проблемы контроля над вооружениями в целом редакция обратилась к известному политологу Владимиру Козину, ведущему эксперту Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, члену-корреспонденту Академии военных наук.

– Владимир Петрович, как вы оцениваете одобренный в ООН документ?

– Как весьма своевременный. Хотел бы обратить внимание на широкую поддержку названной резолюции мировым сообществом. В её поддержку выступили 173 государства при одном голосе против и девяти воздержавшихся. Это отличный результат, если учесть, что членами ООН сейчас являются 193 государства. Иными словами, за резолюцию проголосовало около 90 процентов стран, входящих в эту крупнейшую международную организацию.

О чём этот документ? В нём содержится призыв ко всем государствам – участникам договоров и соглашений по КНВ, разоружению и нераспространению выполнять все положения таких документов в полном объёме. Говорится о необходимости продолжать усилия по укреплению соответствующей системы договоров и соглашений и сохранению её целостности и действенности для поддержания глобальной стабильности и международного мира и безопасности. Несмотря на то что все резолюции, одобряемые на сессиях Генеральной Ассамблеи, носят рекомендательный характер, эта резолюция имеет большое прикладное значение.

Почему? Во-первых, речь идёт о контроле над вооружениями. А реальный и сбалансированный контроль над вооружениями на основе равенства и равной безопасности представляется важным шагом на пути укрепления стратегической стабильности. Такой процесс, если бы он развивался именно в названном направлении, позволил бы предотвращать избыточное накапливание различных видов вооружений, в особенности оружия массового поражения, применение которого могло бы принести огромные человеческие жертвы и колоссальные материальные разрушения.

Резолюция привлекает внимание именно к необходимости скрупулёзного соблюдения договорных актов по вопросам контроля над вооружениями всеми без исключения странами, которые их подписали и ратифицировали. Согласно принятой резолюции, любые действия, разрушающие систему договоров и соглашений по контролю над вооружениями, разоружению и нераспространению, также подрывают глобальную стабильность и международную безопасность. В ней также содержится просьба к Генеральному секретарю ООН поощрять разработку всеми государствами дополнительных мер, которые могут способствовать заключению дополнительных договорных актов в этой сфере.

– А каким образом можно оценить в общих чертах ключевые параметры процесса контроля над вооружениями в настоящее время?

– К сожалению, сегодня уже накопилось слишком много договоров и соглашений по проблематике контроля над вооружениями, которые либо постоянно нарушаются отдельными государствами, либо были разорваны и перестали действовать вообще. В глобальной военно-политической повестке дня имеется до двух десятков договорных актов, которые напрямую относятся к контролю над вооружениями. Из них существуют 15 многосторонних и двусторонних договоров и соглашений, к которым США и остальные государства, входящие в военный блок НАТО, демонстрируют негативное отношение, что проявляется в явном нарушении положений этих документов и в выходе из них в одностороннем порядке.

– Напомните, какие договоры имеются в виду в этом контексте?

– Это договор о противоракетной обороне, из которого США вышли в 2002 году, когда президентом был Джордж Буш-младший. Это также договоры о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, о международной торговле оружием, по открытому небу и соглашение по иранской ядерной программе. Из всех из них Вашингтон вышел в одностороннем порядке в период деятельности администрации Дональда Трампа. Сменивший его президент Джо Байден не проявил какого-то желания восстановить американское участие во всех названных договорённостях. Иными словами, они не действуют. Здесь надо заметить: американская сторона, как правило, не возвращается к договорам, из которых она вышла.

Есть группа договоров, которые постоянно нарушаются западной стороной. Например, американская сторона манкирует своими обязательствами по договору о нераспространении ядерного оружия, а также по договору о сокращении стратегических наступательных вооружений. Имеется несколько договоров в сфере контроля над вооружениями, которые были подписаны США, но не ратифицированы ими.

– Не могли бы вы привести несколько примеров конкретных нарушений договоров по контролю над вооружениями, отказа от их ратификации и обсуждения?

– Например, нарушение Вашингтоном договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия проявляется в виде размещения американского ядерного оружия в Европе и Азии уже несколько десятилетий и отказа вывезти его на континентальную часть страны. Договор о сокращении стратегических наступательных вооружений подвергается частичной эрозии, когда США отказываются демонстрировать российским инспекционным группам количество ядерных боезарядов на некоторых носителях СНВ и уклоняются подтвердить гарантированную необратимость возврата ядерных носителей, переведённых в безъядерные системы доставки, вновь в средства доставки ядерных боезарядов.

Вашингтон уже давно не выполняет положения двух международных конвенций – о запрещении биологического и химического оружия. Многочисленные факты таких нарушений, скажем конвенции о запрещении биологического оружия американской стороной, неоднократно приводились на брифингах российского Министерства обороны, на которых показывались опасные планы применения биологического оружия, создаваемого на военных американо-украинских биолабораториях на Украине.

Соединённые Штаты уже несколько десятилетий уклоняются от ратификации договора о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний, который, напомню, был ратифицирован Россией ещё в 2000 году. США и все другие государства – члены НАТО, которые подписали адаптированный Договор об обычных силах в Европе в 1999 году, до сих пор не утвердили его в законодательном порядке. Стало быть, не выполняют и выполнять не будут.

Американская сторона блокирует принятие проекта международного договора о предотвращении размещения оружия в космическом пространстве, не поддерживает принятие политического обязательства о неразмещении первыми оружия в космосе. Надо напомнить, что проект указанного договора, подготовленный Россией и КНР, был первоначально представлен на конференции по разоружению ещё в 2008 году.

Вашингтон напрочь отказывается обсуждать два военно-политических документа: проект многостороннего договора о европейской безопасности, который был передан заинтересованным государствам 14 лет назад, а также соглашение о мерах обеспечения безопасности между Россией и странами – участницами НАТО, основные положения которого были направлены им в декабре 2021 года. США категорически отвергли возможность рассматривать предложение России о распространении на подводные лодки сторон, находящиеся в погруженном положении, действующего соглашения о предотвращении инцидентов в открытом море за внешним пределом территориальных вод и в воздушном пространстве над ним, которое было подписано между СССР и США в 1972 году.

– Да и ключевые военные стратегии, подготовленные и принятые недавно администрацией Джо Байдена, препятствуют прогрессу в сфере контроля над вооружениями…

– Совершенно верно. Пытаясь всеми силами сохранить ускользающую от них гегемонию, на что и нацелены эти стратегии, Соединённые Штаты продолжают придерживаться курса, направленного на замораживание практически всего процесса контроля над вооружениями. С некоторыми оговорками можно сказать, что это не касается проблемы сокращения СНВ.

В частности, администрация США предложила российской стороне уже сейчас заняться выработкой нового договора на эту тему – Договора СНВ-4. При этом Вашингтон высказался за селективный, то есть выборочный процесс сокращения таких вооружений, но одновременно пытается исключить из переговорной повестки дня другие виды вооружений. Например, американские тактические ядерные вооружения, находящиеся за пределами Соединённых Штатов, а также ударные космические вооружения класса «космос – космос» и «космос – поверхность». Американцы утверждают, что готовы договориться со своими союзниками об открытии воздушного пространства для пролёта самолётов с российскими инспекторами для контролирования соблюдения положений Договора СНВ-3, но такие устные заверения следует запротоколировать на бумаге, а не излагать на словах.

Следует также учесть, что нынешний хозяин Белого дома намерен попытаться ликвидировать в ходе переговоров все российские перспективные высокоточные виды вооружений большой дальности, уже принятые или ещё не принятые на вооружение, о которых глава нашего государства говорил в 2018 году. При этом Вашингтон оперирует своим старым переговорным трюком, предлагая нам неадекватный способ: Россия должна сокращать свои виды вооружений только на том основании, что у США их пока нет.

Что касается более широкого двустороннего диалога с Вашингтоном по стратегической стабильности, то он приостановлен американцами без внятного объяснения причин. Кроме того, они даже не хотят определить повестку дня будущих встреч. Тогда для чего встречаться? Обсуждать метеопрогнозы?

– А в принципе можно ли сегодня вообще вести речь о каком-либо контроле над вооружениями, учитывая то, что коллективный Запад во главе с США развязал гибридную войну против Российской Федерации, стремится расчленить её, разрушить нашу государственность? Не сомневаюсь, что этим вопросом в настоящее время задаются многие люди. Что вы на него ответите?

– Действительно, военно-политическая обстановка в мире остаётся крайне напряжённой. США со своими союзниками агрессивно ведут себя против многих стран, в том числе и в отношении России. Продолжая подливать масла в огонь украинского конфликта, Вашингтон одновременно активно выдвигает комбинированные ударные наступательные и противоракетные вооружения в зоны передового базирования относительно российской территории.

Вместе с тем нельзя не видеть, что доминированию Запада приходит конец, что о себе всё больше заявляет многополярное мироустройство. Но становление новой модели международных отношений проходит в условиях хаотичного движения, неуверенности и возросших рисков. И трудно сказать, как долго продлится этот процесс. Однако совершенно очевидно, что миру без надёжной системы контроля над вооружениями не обойтись. Именно заботой о сохранении человеческой цивилизации, обеспечении стабильной безопасности и поддержании прочного мира и была продиктована инициатива нашей страны по укреплению системы контроля над вооружениями, которая получила одобрение на сессии Генеральной Ассамблеи ООН.

При этом разговор с Вашингтоном на обозначенные выше темы, если он возобновится, возможен только на разумной, здравой и сбалансированной основе, на принципе равенства и равной, неделимой безопасности. Безопасность России – превыше всего.

Беседовал Владимир Кузарь. Источник: “Красная звезда”

 

 

Морская дуэль США и России

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В. Козин в программе "Специальный репортаж" на телеканале "Звезда".

Президент России подписал указ, приостанавливающий действие Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности. Инициаторами денонсации ДРСМД стали США. Соглашение перестанет действовать через 5 месяцев. Что последует после расторжения этого договора? На наших глазах рушится вся архитектура мировой безопасности. Что же на самом деле заставило американцев выйти из договора о РСМД?

Эфир от 11 марта 2019г.

Москвичи стали активно интересоваться антидроновыми ружьями

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в эфире телеканала Москва 24.

После атаки беспилотников москвичи активно интересуются антидроновыми ружьями. Ассортимент подавителей беспилотников растет с каждым днем.

Однако эксперты говорят, что это дорого, опасно и бессмысленно. Почему?

Эфир от 6 июня 2023г.

 

НАРАЩИВАНИЕ СИСТЕМЫ ПРО США И ИХ СОЮЗНИКОВ В ЕВРОПЕ И АТР ПОДРЫВАЕТ СТРАТЕГИЧЕСКУЮ СТАБИЛЬНОСТЬ

В разделе, относящемся к глобальной безопасности, руководители Российской Федерации и КНР Владимир Путин и Си Цзиньпин отметили в совместном заявлении от 8 июня 2018 года, что в условиях сложной и изменчивой международной обстановки обе стороны продолжат наращивание двустороннего стратегического взаимодействия в международных делах, будут вести углубленное обсуждение широкого круга вопросов международной и региональной повестки дня, а также выводить двустороннюю координацию внешнеполитических ведомств двух стран и взаимную поддержку на мировой арене на качественно новый уровень.
 
Затронув в обозначенном документе ряд ключевых вопросов региональной и международной безопасности, оба лидера заявили о том, что Москва и Пекин будут уделять особое внимание обеспечению глобального и регионального стратегического баланса и стабильности, в  том числе с учетом того, что некоторые государства под предлогом так называемой «ракетной угрозы» в  одностороннем порядке развивают системы противоракетной обороны и размещают их в Европе и в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе, тем самым нанося «серьезный урон стратегическим интересам безопасности региональных государств, включая Россию и Китай, и негативно влияя на стратегическое равновесие, глобальную и региональную безопасность и стабильность».
 
Изложенная в совместном заявлении России и Китая подобная оценка развития кооперационной американской системы ПРО в двух названных крупных регионах мира вызвана тем обстоятельством, что США и их некоторые союзники по НАТО (Великобритания, Дания, Испания, Норвегия, Румыния, Польша, Франция и ФРГ), бесконтрольно продолжают наращивать противоракетный потенциал наземного и морского базирования на европейском континенте и вокруг него. 
 
Одновременно широкая кооперация в сфере морской составляющей противоракетной инфраструктуры продолжается между Соединенными Штатами и их ключевыми союзниками в АТР: Австралией, Южной Кореей и Японией. В ближайшей перспективе подобное «противоракетное взаимодействие» в азиатско-тихоокеанской зоне может быть усилено размещением американских противоракетных комплексов наземного базирования стратегического назначения типа системы ПРО ТВД «ТХААД» в Южной Корее и Японии.
 
Особенность уже развернутых противоракетных средств США и их союзников в Европе и АТР заключается в том, что в оперативном плане они сопряжены с американскими наступательными ракетно-ядерными силами и их обычными вооружениями, которые постоянно наращиваются и принимают участие в масштабных многосторонних региональных и глобальных военных маневрах и учениях с привлечением значительного количества военнослужащих и тяжелой военной техники. 
 
В документах Конгресса США уже появились рассуждения о возможности возвращения американского тактического ядерного оружия в виде корректируемых авиабомб серии «В-61» на территорию Южной Кореи, которые могут доставляться как самолетами тактической бомбардировочной авиации, так и тяжелыми бомбардировщиками стратегического назначения. Под их реальное применение в Соединенных Штатах выработана военно-стратегическая установка о возможности использования ядерных боезарядов «малой мощности» и ядерных боезарядов «более широкого применения» с целью, как указывается, «деэскалации» неких конфликтных ситуаций.
 
Все эти названные обстоятельства действительно создают угрозу региональной и глобальной безопасности, взламывают стратегическое равновесие и подрывают стратегическую стабильность в двух обозначенных крупнейших районах мира. Подобные обстоятельства, естественно, не могут не учитываться в оборонном планировании тех государств, которые ощущают на себе реально растущую внешнюю комбинированную военную угрозу.
 
Автор: В.П. Козин, ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО
 

НАТО всегда была и остается опасным военным блоком

16 марта министры обороны стран НАТО провели специальную внеплановую встречу, чтобы рассмотреть ряд вопросов, которые затронули вопросы военного обеспечения альянса и украинскую проблематику.

Если ее квалифицировать в кратком виде, то она стала очередным шагом на пути усиления военных приготовлений этого агрессивного военного блока вообще и, в частности, около территории нашей страны и Республики Беларусь, поддерживающих между собой весьма прочные и особые отношения реального стратегического партнерства.

Из разъяснений генерального секретаря НАТО Йенса Столтенберга следует, что заявленное на встрече «значительное укрепление коллективных сил сдерживания и обороны» альянса потребует выделения соответствующих крупных инвестиций. Он приветствовал заявления союзников об увеличении расходов на военные цели и вновь заявил, что союзникам необходимо выделить минимум два процента от их ВВП на военные цели. Одно важное уточнение: только треть списочного состава этого военного блока из 30 государств уже вышла на обозначенный рубеж. Крайний срок его достижения был уставлен ранее. Называется 2024 год.

Приведенная в общем виде формулировка «значительное укрепление коллективных сил сдерживания» Североатлантического означает усиление ядерных сил альянса, который размещает их на европейском континенте с середины 50-ых годов прошлого столетия и по сей день.  В данном случае речь идет об обновлении американских тактических ядерных боезарядов на территории четырех государств в Европе (Бельгии, Италии, Нидерландов и ФРГ), а также в азиатской части Турции при одновременном наращивании авиационных средств доставки таких вооружений, причем за счет дополнительного развертывания истребителей-бомбардировщиков как средней дальности, например, F-35A, так и межконтинентальной – в виде тяжелых стратегических бомбардировщиков, относящихся к СНВ.

В общенатовском ключе были обсуждены меры по обеспечению «долгосрочной безопасности» альянса.

К таким мерам было отнесено укрепление так называемой «чикагской триады», то есть постоянно действующего оперативно-стратегического механизма в составе ракетно-ядерных и противоракетных вооружений, а также сил общего назначения альянса в виде предварительно складируемых «на передовых рубежах» его вооруженных сил и вооружений и различных мобильных сил быстрого реагирования, то есть в зоне Северной, Восточной и Южной Европы. Такая структура оперативно-тактического и стратегического взаимодействия была создана на саммите НАТО в Чикаго в мае 2012 года. Отсюда и подобное название, которое в кратком виде отражает состояние сложившейся ситуации.

В рамках проведенного мероприятия Йенс Столтеберг похвастался, что сотни тысяч военнослужащих приведены в состояние повышенной готовности, в том числе 100 тысяч американских военнослужащих в Европе, плюс до 40 тысяч военнослужащих сил быстрого реагирования под непосредственным командованием НАТО, в основном в восточной части европейского континента.

Что касается второй части решения о «долгосрочности безопасности», то подобный подход у Североатлантического союза останется надолго, как у безнадежно хронического больного. В данном случае тяжелобольного агрессивным милитаризмом, маниакальной враждебностью и гипертрофированной русофобией.

В частности, такой диагноз подтвердили январские ответы США и НАТО этого года на российские предложения об укреплении гарантий безопасности, переданные им в середине декабря прошлого года.

 Его документально подкрепило негативное отношение Вашингтона к тринадцати двусторонним и многосторонним соглашениям по контролю над вооружениями.

Это также подтвердила американо-натовская установка на обеспечение только им одним индивидуальной безопасности при полном игнорировании национальной безопасности другим странам, которая остается неизменной со времени создания это блока в 1949 году.

Это подтвердили неоднократные решения НАТО, принятые после 24 февраля, то есть начала специальной военной операции России, которые касались поставок все новых и новых вооружений преступному украинскому режиму. Которые подливали и по-прежнему подливают масла в огонь политики геноцида, проводимую нынешним военно-политическим украинском руководством – полностью ответственным за массовые военные преступления против собственных граждан и граждан других государств.

Обращает на себя внимание то обстоятельство, что на встрече 16 марта министры обороны НАТО добавили еще одно уточнение: должно продолжаться укрепление коллективной безопасности блока на долгосрочную перспективу «во всех сферах».

Ставилась задача продолжения агрессивно-милитаристской политики нынешнего киевского режима как против Донбасса, так и России и Беларуси в целом. Дополнительный существенный элемент принятых в штаб-квартире альянса в Брюсселе решений – это договоренность о поставках очередной крупной партии вооружений украинскому государству-агрессору, которое уже в третий раз за последние восемь лет совершает масштабную агрессию против собственных граждан на Донбассе, а также замахивалась на проведение наступательных операций против российского Крыма и территории прилегающей Ростовской области. Документально доказано, что готовились вторжения соединений ВСУ и на территорию Республики Беларусь в период недавнего проведения там совместных военных учений наших дружественных армий.

Министры согласились с тем, что поддержка, оказываемая НАТО Украине, должна продолжаться, в том числе в виде поставок различных видов вооружений, финансовой и гуманитарной помощи преступному киевскому режиму. Вместе с тем, на встрече не удалось расширить список поставщиков вооружений киевским воякам, терпящим одно поражение за другим. Из 30 государств-членов альянса семнадцать государств втянулись в эту позорную авантюру, которая на английском языке называется «proxy war» или «война чужими руками».

Входящие в блок «трансатлантической солидарности» договорились увеличить в ВСУ запасы противотанковых и противовоздушных вооружений, позабыв при этом уточнить: каким же способом они будут доставлены адресату, значительная часть сухопутных, военно-морских и военно-воздушных сил которого уже разгромлена? И в условиях, когда российская сторона уже предупредила Киев, что любые способы их доставки – по суше, морю или по воздуху – станут целями применения ударных вооружений российских Вооруженных Сил. То есть вооружения будут доставлены в виртуальном виде?

К министрам обороны НАТО сначала присоединились такие давние партнеры этого милитаристского блока, как Грузия, Финляндия и Швеция, а также Европейский союз. Почему три названные страны и ЕС, который не является военной структурой?

Грузия и Украина уже с 2008 года были объявлены как претенденты на вхождение в альянс. Финляндия и Швеция приглашены в него в качестве полноправных членов не так давно по оглашенной «формуле Столтенберга»: если сегодня подаете заявления о приеме в НАТО, то завтра будете приняты безо всяких проблем. Вся упомянутая четверка уже давно имеет тесные военно-технические и военно-политические связи с Североатлантическим союз. Не исключено, что Финляндию и Швецию могут принять в альянс уже на его саммите в июне текущего года, который должен состоятся в Мадриде.

Что касается ЕС, то он стал по сути дела филиалом НАТО после того, как впервые в своей долгой истории в этом году принял решение поставить смертоносные виды вооружений украинским националистам на сумму 500 млн. евро. За такое решение этой формально невоенной организации проголосовали все входящие в него 27 государств. Контакты по дальнейшему вовлечению этой структуры к военным операциям НАТО будут продолжены. Немудрено: из 27 его участников 21 государство одновременно является участником трансатлантического альянса.

Складывается твердое впечатление, что НАТО навсегда останется враждебным военным союзом, настроенным демонстрировать свою военную силу в глобальном измерении.

 

В.П. Козин – член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России

 

Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/53430

НАТО готовит Европе стойкий «ядерный полдень»?

Немецкое издание «Бильд» 13 октября текущего года сообщило, что военно-воздушные силы ФРГ вместе с другими союзниками по НАТО приняли участие в секретных военно-воздушных учениях, которые предполагают реализацию сценария развязывания ядерной войны в Европе. Популярное австрийское издание «Кроне» известило о таких учениях и в октябре прошлого года. Об этом также поведало и германское информационное агентство ДПА со ссылкой на собственные источники. По его информации, в ходе этих учений, имеющих кодовое название «Steadfast Noon» («Стойкий полдень»), были использованы истребители-бомбардировщики «двойного назначения» ряда стран трансатлантического альянса, то есть способные нести на борту как обычное, так и ядерное оружие.

 
О чём думает германское руководство, направляя свои ВВС для участия в ядерных учениях с США? Мало печального урока с треском проигранной войны в 1945 году?
 
Виды «ядерных учений» НАТО
 
Эти учения проводятся в рамках программы «SNOWCAT», что означает «Поддержка ядерных операций с помощью обычных тактических полётов ВВС» (Support of Nuclear Operations with Conventional Air Tactics), а также по программе учений ВВС НАТО под кодовым обозначением «Steadfast Noon».
 
Подобные учения проводятся на основе секретных соглашений США со странами-участниками «ядерного пула» НАТО. Такие договорённости именуются как «соглашения о разделении ядерной ответственности» или как «соглашения о совместных ядерных миссиях» (в английском оригинале «nuclear sharing agreements»).
 
В названных учениях используются учебные ядерные авиабомбы серии В-61. Соединённые Штаты и Североатлантический союз регулярно проводят учения с имитаций доставки таких учебных авиабомб к условным объектам «вероятного противника». Они складированы на территории четырёх стран европейского континента (Бельгии, Италии, Нидерландов и ФРГ), а также в азиатской части Турции. В таких учениях принимают участие самолёты пяти стран-членов трансатлантического союза, где размещено американское тактическое ядерное оружие.
 
 
Но не только. В названные учения приглашаются и неядерные государства блока, которые вообще не имеют на своей территории американских ядерных боезарядов. В частности, в упомянутых учениях уже участвовали военные лётчики из Венгрии, Греции, Дании и Норвегии.
 
Примечательно, что некоторые авиабомбы США типа В-61 с ядерной начинкой квалифицируются в документах Пентагона и Государственного департамента как «стратегические». Такую же формулировку, в частности, имеет и справочный материал о продлении срока службы американского ТЯО, распространённый Государственным департаментом и Национальным управлением по ядерной безопасности США 3 января 2013 года, который однозначно квалифицирует именно три авиабомбы типа В-61 как «стратегические», поскольку они могут выполнять стратегические задачи. Обратите внимание на максимальную мощность ядерного боезаряда некоторых американских ядерных авиабомб. Не все виды стратегических ядерных сил Соединённых Штатов имеют такую же мощность (см. таблицу).
 
 
Два из пяти видов существующих боезарядов таких авиабомб, а именно В-61-7 и В-61-11, а также новая высокоточная корректируемая авиабомба В-61-12 имеют не только тактическое, но и стратегическое значение, поскольку они могут быть доставлены к целям как самолётами тактической авиации средней дальности, так и американскими тяжёлыми стратегическими бомбардировщиками, на каждом из которых можно разместить до двух десятков таких авиабомб.
 
Под новую авиабомбу В-61-12 в Соединённых Штатах разработан, создан и уже используется истребитель-бомбардировщик F-35А, способный нести по две такие авиабомбы. Его пожелали закупить многие европейские и азиатские страны. Причём зачастую в зарубежных странах приобретается самолёт именно этой серии, который сертифицирован под доставку ядерного оружия - с буквенным обозначением «А». Под неё создаётся и новый тяжёлый стратегический бомбардировщик B-21 Raider, поступление которого в ВВС США намечено на 2026 год.
 
Под новую авиабомбу В-61-12 в Соединённых Штатах разработан, создан и уже используется истребитель-бомбардировщик F-35А, способный нести по две такие авиабомбы.
 
 
Отрабатываемые задачи
 
Если в октябре 2019 года германские ВВС задействовали в таких учениях свои истребители «Торнадо» 33-й авиаэскадрильи, размещённые на военно-воздушной базе «Бюхель», федеральная земля Рейнланд-Пфальц, что на юго-западе ФРГ, где до сих пор хранятся американские авиабомбы семейства B-61 с ядерными боезарядами, то по данным «Бильд», в октябре текущего года ВВС Германии и их партнёры по НАТО провели точно такие же учения с целью отработки манёвров на случай ядерной войны, но уже в другом районе Германии. Речь идёт об учениях, проведённых на авиабазе Нёрфених, которая считается альтернативным местом для хранения американских ядерных авиабомб типа B-61. В рамках октябрьских учений этого года военные альянса «трансатлантической солидарности» отработали безопасное извлечение ядерного оружия из подземных хранилищ, а также его транспортировку и установку на самолёты «двойного назначения». Тренировочные полёты осуществляются с макетами ядерных авиабомб.
 
Военно-воздушная база «Бюхель», федеральная земля Рейнланд-Пфальц, что на юго-западе ФРГ, где до сих пор хранятся американские авиабомбы семейства B-61 с ядерными боезарядами.
 
По мнению «Бильд», страны НАТО осознают, что угроза ядерной войны сейчас выше, чем когда-либо. Главной причиной стал выход США из Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, а также глубокие сомнения Вашингтона в целесообразности продления Договора СНВ-3 на какой-то срок.
 
Примечательно, что три западные ядерные державы, входящие в Североатлантический союз (Великобритания, США и Франция), намерены расширить степень участия неядерных стран, являющихся участницами НАТО, в решении самых разнообразных задач, связанных с использованием ядерного оружия в различных районах земного шара, в особенности в Европе и Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе.
 
С этой целью ещё в Стратегической концепции НАТО, одобренной на его саммите в Лиссабоне в ноябре 2010 года, было записано обязательство альянса по обеспечению наиболее широкого участия союзников в коллективном планировании ядерных задач, размещении американских ядерных сил в мирное время, а также в командно-управленческих и консультационных механизмах, связанных с дислокацией и возможным применением ядерного оружия различного назначения. Формулировка об усилении ядерных средств «передового базирования» НАТО в Европе отражена и в документах его саммита, состоявшегося в июле 2018 года в Брюсселе.
 
Стратегические последствия «двойного размещения»
Американское ядерное оружие воздушного базирования постоянно хранится в Европе уже около 70 лет. Оно имеет статус «ядерные средства передового базирования».
 
Что касается России, то она вывезла всё ядерное оружие Советского Союза, находившееся в Белоруссии, Казахстане и на Украине, на свою территорию ещё четверть века назад, в середине девяностых.
 
В этом принципиальная разница в пространственном размещении ядерного оружия названного класса Вашингтона и Москвы.
 
При этом нельзя сбрасывать со счетов ещё одного существенного американского «ядерного довеска» в Европе. Это ядерное оружие в виде ядерных авиабомб и крылатых ракет с ядерными боезарядами, которое несут на борту американские тяжёлые стратегические бомбардировщики, уже давно получившие «постоянную прописку» в небе Европы. Они явно используются в приготовлениях к ведению ядерной войны, чего сильно опасаются граждане европейских государств.
 
В октябре прошлого года тяжёлый стратегический бомбардировщик США B-52 нанёс условный ядерный удар по литовскому полигону, расположенному недалеко от Калининградской области. В сентябре нынешнего года стало известно, что американские бомбардировщики B-52, перехваченные 25 сентября в небе над Балтикой, отрабатывали нанесение ядерных ударов с помощью крылатых ракет и по самому Калининграду. Кроме того, сообщалось, что такие бомбардировщики совершили имитацию атаки по российскому Крыму, барражируя в небе Украины в районе Азовского моря.
 
Итак, в Европе намечается размещение двух новых видов ядерного оружия США. Это ядерные средства воздушного базирования, в виде авиабомбы В-61-12. Это и новые ракетно-ядерные средства наземного базирования средней дальности, которые могут появиться в результате односторонней денонсации Вашингтоном ДРСМД в августе прошлого года.
 
Новая высокоточная корректируемая авиабомба В-61-12.
 
 
Октябрьское предложение специального представителя президента США по контролю над вооружениями Маршалла Биллингсли о замораживании ядерных вооружений США и России, в том числе тактического назначения, является неприемлемым, так как оно сохранит размещение этих видов вооружений Соединённых Штатов на европейском континенте на длительную перспективу, а также его использование в рамках проводимой уже свыше 16 лет операции ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», в которой кроме американских задействованы сертифицированные самолёты «двойного назначения» Великобритании и Франции.
 
Размещение ядерного оружия США за их пределами является прямым нарушением статьи I ДНЯО, которая запрещает размещение ядерного оружия ядерных государств на территории неядерных стран. А статья II этого договора запрещает неядерным странам давать согласие на развёртывание ядерного оружия ядерными государствами на своей территории.
 
Нынешняя администрация США не намерена возвращать свои тактические и стратегические ядерные арсеналы из Европы на собственную территорию. Если страны-члены НАТО окончательно откажутся от российского моратория на размещение новых ядерных ракет средней дальности в Европе и Азии, ранее запрещённых Договором о ликвидации РСМД (они эту идею просто проигнорировали), то использование ими даже условных ядерных боезарядов является крупным дестабилизирующим фактором.
 
Всё это свидетельствует о реальной подготовке США и их ближайших союзников по НАТО к развязыванию ядерной войны. В частности, в Европе.
 
Интересно: и на этом драматическом фоне Вашингтон ещё заявляет о некой готовности продлить Договор СНВ-3, да ещё выдвигает некие абсурдные «предварительные условия»?
 
 
Автор: Владимир Козин, член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН. Источник: еженедельник «Звезда»
 
Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/47759
 
 
 
 

НАТО готовится к новым мерам по «сдерживанию» России

С 13 по 14 февраля в Брюсселе состоялось очередное заседание глав военных ведомств стран НАТО.

Участники встречи обсудили такие вопросы, как развитие системы контроля над вооружениями, выполнение текущих операции Альянса, распределение финансовой нагрузки между участниками организации, а также методы повышения эффективности общеевропейской обороны. Особое внимание, как и ожидалось, было уделено обсуждению конкретных действий Альянса после окончательного разрыва Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД). Не удивляет и то, что главной причиной ликвидации Договора участники встречи назвали действия России, якобы нарушающие положения ДРСМД. В очередной раз генеральный секретарь НАТО Йенс Столтенберг заявил, что разработанная и поставленная на вооружение российской стороной ракета 9М729 (SSC-8 по классификации НАТО) нарушает условия Договора и представляет угрозу для европейских стран.

«Все 29 стран НАТО пришли к мнению, что ракетная система SSC-8, разработанная и развернутая Россией, представляет значительный риск для нашей безопасности. Она мобильна и её трудно обнаружить. Она может достигать европейских городов, имеет малое время предупреждения и способна нести обычные или ядерные боеголовки. И она снижает порог применения ядерного оружия. Соединенные Штаты и другие страны НАТО в течение ряда лет взаимодействовали с Россией по поводу этой ракеты, в том числе на заседании Совета Россия-НАТО в прошлом месяце. Ясно, что договор, который соблюдает лишь одна сторона, не может обеспечить нашу безопасность», - заявил Столтенберг. 

Ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований Владимир Козин считает, что за голословными обвинениями члены Альянс не хотят признавать грубого нарушения положений Договора РСМД и других соглашений с Россией со своей стороны.

«Участники встречи предприняли ещё одну попытку оказать необоснованное давление на Российскую Федерацию в привязке к ДРСМД, голословно обвинив нашу страну в несоблюдении этого договорного акта. Словно заезженная грампластинка, генеральный секретарь НАТО Йенс Столтенберг без устали повторял, что российская крылатая ракета наземного базирования (КРНБ) 9М729 является нарушением этого договора, хотя Москва наглядно доказала обратное… Что касается отказа от развёртывания новых американских ядерных КРНБ на Европейском континенте, то ни Соединённые Штаты как страна – разработчик этого деструктивного плана, ни НАТО в целом до сих пор не взяли на себя политическое и юридическое обязательства навсегда отказаться от размещения подобных ракетно-ядерных средств в столь густонаселённом районе мира», - отметил Козин.

Эксперт подчеркнул, что несмотря на заявления о готовности продолжить сотрудничество с Россией в области контроля над вооружениями, несмотря на попытку заверить европейскую общественность в негативной отношении НАТО к потенциальной новой гонке вооружений, члены Альянса открыто заявляют о подготовке мер по сдерживанию России после ликвидации ДРСМД.

«Примечательно, что в рамках брюссельской встречи Йенс Столтенберг дал ясно понять, что Североатлантический союз воспринимает будущую военно-политическую ситуацию в мире уже без этого договорного акта. Голословно заявив о готовности блока взаимодействовать с Россией по ДРСМД, он тут же объявил, что НАТО приступает к подготовке оборонительных мер из-за прекращения действия договора 1987 года, которые должны обеспечить надёжные и эффективные меры сдерживания», - добавил Владимир Козин.

Подготовил Михаил СимутовЦентр военно-политических исследований

НАТО демонстрирует всё более возрастающие неадекватность и агрессивность

Решения Мадридского саммита направлены на расширение военных приготовлений Североатлантического альянса против России.

Состоявшаяся 28–30 июня в Мадриде встреча лидеров стран Североатлантического альянса прошла в атмосфере откровенной русофобии и стала самой агрессивной по своему содержанию за последние тридцать лет. Свидетельством тому – не только заявления и выступления его участников, но и решения саммита. Об их содержании и возможных последствиях рассказал в интервью нашему обозревателю известный политолог и аналитик Владимир Козин, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-¬политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук.

– Владимир Петрович, Россия больше не «партнёр НАТО», а его враг. Так, во всяком случае, вытекает из решений мадридского саммита…

– Действительно, в новой стратегической концепции НАТО, принятой на этой встрече, Россия в отличие от предыдущих подобных документов, в которых она обозначалась как натовский партнёр, названа «самой значительной и прямой угрозой альянсу». Однако, по сути, ничего неожиданного в этом нет – просто в НАТО, наконец, решили открыто признать действительную цель своего существования.

Ведь после того как не стало Организации Варшавского договора и Советского Союза, для противостояния которому и был создан Североатлантический альянс, необходимость в НАТО, казалось бы, исчезла. Но коллективный Запад во главе с США решил сохранить военно-политический блок и его нацеленность против нашей страны. Причём, не желая открыто говорить об этом, стал вести речь о необходимости развивать стратегическое партнёрство с Россией в таких сферах, как контроль над вооружениями, борьба с терроризмом, наркотрафиком и пиратством. При этом продолжал активно приближаться к российским границам, вовлекая в свои ряды всё новые страны, осваивая в военном плане их территорию, размещая на ней самые современные виды вооружений и военной техники.

И когда в конце прошлого года Россия заявила, что больше не может верить голословным заявлениям НАТО, и потребовала юридически обязывающих гарантий безопасности, в альянсе решили больше не скрывать своих истинных намерений. Инициировав и до предела обострив конфликт на Украине, коллективный Запад открыто взял курс на конфронтацию с Российской Федерацией.

При этом, объявляя Россию своим противником, НАТО в новой стратегической концепции бездоказательно обвиняет нашу страну в дестабилизации государств, расположенных к востоку и югу от территории стран – членов НАТО. В том, что «усиление военного присутствия РФ в районах Балтийского, Чёрного и Средиземного морей и военная интеграция с Белоруссией угрожает безопасности и интересам альянса».

– Не трудно догадаться, что для противостояния этой «угрозе» НАТО намерена и дальше наращивать свою военную мощь и придвигать её как можно плотнее к российским границам…

– Совершенно верно. О конкретных мерах в этом плане идёт речь как в стратегической концепции альянса, состоящей из 49 пунк¬тов и рассчитанной на ближайшие десять лет, так и в итоговой декларации, включающей 22 пунк¬та. Причём эти меры охватывают практически все сферы военного противостояния. В частности, подтверждено стремление совершенствовать «чикагскую триаду», то есть постоянно действующий комбинированный механизм в виде тесно взаимодействующих друг с другом в режиме реального времени ракетно-ядерных сил, противоракетных систем и сил общего назначения.

НАТО останется, как подчёркивается в документе, ядерным альянсом до тех пор, пока на планете сохраняется ядерное оружие. При этом подтверждена приверженность стратегии ядерного сдерживания, которая не исключает нанесения первого ядерного удара.

Остаются в силе двусторонние соглашения «о совместных ядерных миссиях» («о разделении ядерной ответственности»), заключённые между Вашингтоном и неядерными странами – членами альянса. Такие договорённости предоставляют американской стороне право размещать её ядерное оружие на территории пяти неядерных государств союза и проводить учения с условным применением такого оружия воздушного базирования с гораздо большим количеством натовских союзников, что нарушает положения международного Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия. Стратегические наступательные ядерные вооружения будут по-прежнему обеспечивать ядерный зонтик всем союзникам по альянсу.

Применительно к космосу и киберпространству поставлена задача обеспечить «беспрепятственный доступ» к обеим средам, причём с оговоркой: на них будет распространено положение статьи пятой Вашингтонского договора о создании НАТО, которая предусматривает коллективную оборону по принципу «один за всех и все за одного». Решено создать и применять «виртуальный киберпотенциал быстрого реагирования».

Подчёркнута необходимость усовершенствования систем ПВО и ПРО. Будет достроена операционная база ПРО США в Польше, которая дополнит аналогичную структуру, уже поставленную на бое¬вое дежурство в Румынии. И есть основания полагать, что и та и другая структуры будут иметь комбинированный характер, то есть будут использовать не только оборонительные системы «противоракетного щита», но и наступательные виды вооружений в виде крылатых ракет. На два боевых корабля – с четырёх до шести – будет увеличен состав группировки ВМС США с боевой информационно-управляющей системой «Иджис». Эти эсминцы УРО, способные решать задачи ПРО, базируются на военно-морской базе Рота на юге Испании.

Саммит поддержал первоначальные предложения стран – членов альянса относительно «новой модели сил» НАТО, которые укрепят и модернизируют структуру вооружённых сил блока и обеспечат ресурсами его «военные планы нового поколения». Такая «модель», которая будет введена в действие в следующем году, предусматривает развёртывание стотысячной группировки вооружённых сил альянса в течение 10 дней, а пятисоттысячной – в переделах 30–180 дней.

В частности, в Европе для этих целей будет увеличено количество военных объектов для предварительного складирования военной техники и боеприпасов, а также ГСМ.

Планируется увеличить силы быстрого развёртывания Североатлантического альянса с 40 тысяч человек до 300 тысяч. При этом надо иметь в виду, что на Европейском континенте уже находятся сто тысяч американских военнослужащих.

– И их численность ещё больше возрастёт. Как и активность. «Мы собираемся активизироваться. Мы активизируемся», – заявил на саммите президент США Джо Байден.

– По его словам, США будут наращивать свои силы на всём континенте, начиная с обеспечения постоянного присутствия в Польше. Оно будет включать постоянное передовое командование 5-го корпуса, командование армейского гарнизона и батальон полевой поддержки. В свою очередь в Пентагоне отметили, что это «первые постоянные силы США на восточном фланге НАТО», которые будут сопровождаться постоянной поддержкой ротационных сил в Польше, в том числе «боевой группы бронетанковой бригады, подразделения боевой авиационной бригады». США направляют две дополнительные эскадрильи истребителей F-35 в Великобританию, дополнительные средства противоракетной и противовоздушной обороны и другие подразделения – в Германию, Румынию и Италию.

Следуя примеру своего лидера, страны – члены НАТО также обязались развернуть «дополнительные мощные боеготовые силы на местах, наращиваемые за счёт существующих боевых групп до формирований уровня бригады там, где и когда возникнет необходимость, на основе убедительных быстродоступных подкреплений, заблаговременно размещённой техники и усовершенствованной системы командования и управления».

В Восточной Европе у границ с Белоруссией и Россией, «там, где и когда возникнет необходимость», вместо батальонных боевых групп появятся бригадные боевые группы. Возрастёт количество тактических истребителей «двойного назначения», то есть способных нести на борту не только обычные, но и ядерные авиабомбы.

Все они принимают участие в постоянно действующей операции ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», которая проводится с 2004 года в небе Латвии, Литвы, Польши и Эстонии. Усилится авиационный парк истребителей НАТО, задействованных в рамках другой операции аналогичной функциональной направленности, – операции «Балканское воздушное патрулирование», регулярно проводимой в воздушном пространстве Болгарии и Румынии, в том числе за счёт приобретения американских F-35, способных нес¬ти ядерное оружие.

Имеющими стратегическое значение объявлены Западные Балканы и район Чёрного моря.

– И, естественно, Украина?

– Нет необходимости особо подчёркивать, что Украина заняла значительное место на саммите НАТО. Ведь именно она стала главным тараном объединённого Запада против России. Но, несмот¬ря на огромную военную помощь альянса, этот таран продолжает всё более «съёживаться». И это вызывает серьёзную озабоченность у лидеров натовских стран. На пресс-конференции в Мадриде премьер-министр Великобритании Борис Джонсон подчеркнул, что западные страны должны работать сообща, чтобы «Украина выиграла войну».

А посему Джо Байден объявил об очередном, двенадцатом по счёту, транше поставок Киеву новой партии тяжёлых видов вооружений и военной техники на сумму более чем 800 млн долларов. Глава французского государства также заявил о дополнительной военной поддержке Украины.

Обращает на себя внимание появление в стратегической концепции 2022 года термина «оперативная совместимость», которым будут руководствоваться вооружённые силы НАТО и Украины в своих взаимоотношениях. Такой термин уже давно используется в основополагающих документах альянса как выражение, под которым понимается слаженное и документально описанное в деталях оперативное взаимодействие сил и средств стран – членов НАТО, а также их командно-штабных структур в учебной и боевой обстановке.

Означает ли это, что, официально не вступая в альянс в настоящее время, Украина фактически будет являться так называемым привилегированным партнёром блока и поддерживать с ним тесные военно-политические и военно-технические связи, а также постепенно перейдёт на натовские системы во-оружений и на военные наставления альянса? Считаю, что означает.

– Североатлантический альянс на саммите фактически увеличился ещё на две страны-члена…

– Лидеры стран НАТО официально пригласили Швецию и Финляндию вступить в Североатлантический альянс. Об этом говорится в распространённой декларации по итогам первого заседания 29 июня 2022 года. Вступление новых стран в альянс должны будут ратифицировать парламенты 30 действующих стран – членов НАТО.

Как известно, против вступления скандинавских стран в военный блок выступала Турция. Но 28 июня Финляндия и Швеция подписали с Турцией меморандум. В нём говорится, что Хельсинки и Стокгольм обязуются выполнить условия Турции – в основном не поддерживать в какой-либо форме Рабочую партию Курдистана и движение Фетхуллаха Гюлена, которые Анкара считает террористическими. В результате Турция не стала препятствовать приёму Швеции и Финляндии в НАТО.

Комментируя решение саммита по этому вопросу, генсек НАТО Йенс Столтенберг отметил, что присоединение двух стран укрепит общую безопасность Североатлантического блока. При этом он выразил надежду на то, что процесс оформления членства Финляндии и Швеции в НАТО пройдёт быстро, и добавил, что альянс теперь «адаптирует свою систему безопасности в Балтийском море». Как это происходить на практике, покажет время. Однако уже сейчас ясно, что членство в НАТО не укрепит безопасность Швеции и Финляндии, так как будет постоянно втягивать эти страны в военные планы альянса.

– На саммите в числе противников НАТО впервые был назван Китай…

– По сути, да. В стратегической концепции НАТО отмечено, что заявленные амбиции Китая бросают вызов общим интересам, безопасности и ценностям альянса. В концепции также утверждается, что Пекин стремится контролировать ключевые технологические и промышленные секторы, критическую инфраструктуру, стратегические материалы и цепочки поставок. Также НАТО обвинило Китай в расширении своего ядерного арсенала и развитии более сложных средств доставки ядерного оружия без роста прозрачности в этой сфере деятельности.

Участники саммита также высказали обеспокоенность углублением стратегического партнёрства Пекина и Москвы. Исходя из этого, НАТО, как отмечается в документах саммита, рассчитывает повысить свою общую осведомлённость, а также будет стремиться «укрепить готовность и защиту от применяе¬мой КНР тактики принуждения и от его усилий по расколу альянса».

Таким образом, НАТО выходит за рамки первоначального мандата, согласно которому «зоной ответственности» альянса был определён Североатлантический регион, и раздвигает свои границы на Индо-Тихоокеанский регион. Альянс становится ведущим инструментом защиты глобальных интересов коллективного Запада. В этой связи нельзя не заметить, что на саммит были впервые приглашены главы государств и правительств Индо-Тихоокеанского региона: Австралии, Новой Зеландии, Республики Корея и Японии. А в ходе самой встречи не раз заявлялось о необходимости тесного взаимодействия НАТО с этой четвёркой в противодействии неким «общим вызовам безопасности».

КНР резко отреагировала на подобные выпады. НАТО представляет собой «системный вызов миру и стабильности», заявил официальный представитель китайского МИД Чжао Лицзянь, комментируя новую стратегическую концепцию альянса. По его словам, «этот документ игнорирует факты, выдаёт чёрное за белое, упорно придерживается неуместного позиционирования системных вызовов Китаю, дискредитирует его внешнюю политику и выступает против его нормального военного развития и политики национальной обороны. Это поощряет конфронтацию полную мышления времен холодной войны и идеологических предрассудков. Китай серьёзно обеспокоен этим и решительно выступает против этого», – заявил китайский дипломат.

Беседовал Владимир Кузарь, Источник: «Красная звезда»

 

 

НАТО и Евросоюз скоординировали свои действия на Украине

Коллективный Запад продолжит курс на усиление военно-политического давления на Россию, чреватый дальнейшей дестабилизацией на Европейском континенте.

Запад во главе с Соединёнными Штатами продолжит оказывать поддержку киевским властям, подтверждая тем самым свою заинтересованность в дальнейшем углублении украинского кризиса, несмотря на то что он уже до предела обострил обстановку в Европе и мире в целом. Об этом свидетельствуют саммиты НАТО, Евросоюза и G7, которые 24–25 марта прошли в Брюсселе. О чём конкретно шла на них речь? Как их решения отразятся на событиях на Украине? Эти и другие вопросы стали темой интервью, которое дал нашей газете известный политолог Владимир КОЗИН, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук.

– Владимир Петрович, в Брюсселе одна за одной прошли встречи лидеров Запада, которые, по сути, объединяло одно устремление – обсудить, как ослабить Россию, принудить её чуть ли не к капитуляции. О чём конкретно они договорились? Начнём с саммита НАТО.

– Прежде всего следует, очевидно, заметить, что он состоялся в день, когда 23 года назад НАТО во главе с США начала бомбардировки Югославии. Напомню, что из-за них, по разным оценкам, погибли до 5,7 тысячи мирных жителей, в том числе сотни детей. Были разрушены 89 фабрик и заводов, 48 больниц и госпиталей, 70 школ, 18 детских садов. Инициатором же этой бойни, как он сам признаётся, был нынешний президент США Джо Байден, тогда сенатор. «Это я предложил отправить американских пилотов и взорвать все мосты на Дунае. Это я предложил забрать все запасы их горючего. Это я предложил все эти действия», – как-то в порыве самолюбования заявил он.

Нынче же Байден с таким же остервенением, как свидетельствуют его выступления на саммитах, призывает натовских лидеров оказывать военную помощь киевскому режиму, посылать ему как можно больше оружия, боевой техники, снарядов, бомб, чтобы те же украинские неонацисты продолжали боевые действия, разрушали города, убивали ни в чём не повинных людей. По данным руководства ДНР, с 17 февраля этого года, когда неспровоцированно увеличилась интенсивность обстрелов Донбасса вооружёнными силами Украины, только на территории, которая была подконтрольна этой республике до начала специальной военной операции России, погибли 62 человека и были ранены 428.

Но Байдену явно не до этого. Он продолжал твердить, что надо проявить решимость и выделить Украине ещё больше вооружения. В результате участники саммита Североатлантического альянса договорились, как отметил по его итогам генсек НАТО Йенс Столтенберг, оказать дополнительную военную поддержку Киеву. В том числе в сфере кибербезопасности, а также в поставках оборудования, чтобы «помочь Украине защитить себя против биологических, химических, радиологических и ядерных угроз».

При этом лидеры альянса призвали российское руководство «незамедлительно прекратить боевые действия и вывести войска с Украины» и «конструктивно взаимодействовать на переговорах с Украиной, чтобы достичь конкретных результатов».

В этой связи нельзя не обратить внимания на то, что итоговое заявление глав государств и правительств НАТО, принятое ими на саммите в Брюсселе, является не только агрессивно-направленным, но и чрезвычайно лживым.

– В чём это проявляется?

– Например, в нём содержится призыв к российской стороне не препятствовать созданию и функционированию гуманитарных коридоров на Украине. Но Москва и не препятствует этому. Наоборот, она создаёт их больше, чем на словах «определяет» их Киев, а также в отличие от украинской стороны, которая блокирует те пути, которые идут в сторону России и Белоруссии, устанавливает их по всем направлениям. ВСУ не извещают граждан об открытии таких коридоров, более того – минируют их, а все попытки разминирования маршрутов пресекаются интенсивным огнём.

В отличие от НАТО и Евросоюза группировка российских Вооружённых Сил на Украине постоянно содействует направлению гуманитарной помощи в районы, которые освобождаются от националистических группировок и ВСУ.

Россия, как это утверждается в заявлении саммита НАТО, не торгует людьми, и нет ни одного задокументированного случая совершения такой позорной акции. Но зато в этом уже замечены некоторые южные государства Европы, граничащие с Украиной.

Наша страна не собирается и никогда не собиралась применять химическое и биологическое оружие на Украине – его просто нет у неё на вооружении. А вот украинские националисты уже не раз угрожали применить химические отравляющие вещества в виде промышленного аммиака и хлора. Пытались вывести из строя собственные АЭС, пугая другие государства масштабным радиоактивным заражением местности. Киевские власти совместно с США создали на украинской территории свыше 30 биолабораторий, которые разрабатывали реальное смертоносное биологическое оружие.

– На саммите было также принято решение об усилении военного потенциала Североатлантического альянса и о размещении его ударных средств передового базирования по всему периметру северной, центрально-восточной и южной линии соприкосновения с Россией…

– Совершенно верно. НАТО уже разместила 40 тысяч военнослужащих на восточном фланге, развернула элементы сил быстрого реагирования. Однако альянсу, очевидно, показалось этого мало. Поэтому будут созданы четыре новые многонациональные боевые группы в Болгарии, Венгрии, Румынии и Словакии дополнительно к тем, которые ранее были развёрнуты в трёх натовских странах Балтии и Польше.

Приняты также меры и решения для обеспечения безопасности всех членов Североатлантического союза во всех областях, в том числе с применением подхода «кругового обзора». Речь идёт о таких мерах, как ускорение дальнейшей трансформации альянса, укрепление «сил сдерживания и обороны», увеличение количества военных учений с акцентом на коллективную оборону и оперативную совместимость.

Решено также, что на очередном саммите НАТО, который состоится в июне этого года в Мадриде, будет обновлена стратегическая концепция альянса. Достигнута также договорённость, что страны – члены НАТО существенно увеличат расходы на военные цели.

– А в чём суть решений, принятых на саммите Евросоюза?

– По сути, Евросоюз этим саммитом показал, что он отказывается от своих планов стать самостоятельной мировой силой и превращается в послушного слугу Соединённых Штатов, а в военном плане становится непосредственным придатком Североатлантического альянса. Об этом свидетельствует прежде всего то, что Евросоюз по настоянию Байдена принял решение о расширении антироссийских санкций, а также намерен отказаться от российских энергоносителей в угоду увеличения поставок американского сжиженного газа в страны ЕС.

На евросаммите также было принято решение о финансировании поставок смертоносных вооружений для ВСУ на сумму до одного миллиарда евро, при этом эта сумма может быть дополнительно увеличена из средств специального «Европейского фонда мира» объёмом 5,69 млрд евро.

Кроме того, саммит ЕС утвердил стратегию в области обороны и безопасности под названием «Стратегический компас» сроком на десять лет. Документ призывает страны-участницы усилить развитие военно-промышленного комплекса.

Евросоюз создал собственные силы быстрого реагирования численностью пять тысяч военнослужащих, которые будут участвовать в военных операциях совместно с аналогичными боевыми структурами НАТО.

Особое удивление вызвал тот факт, что за всю свою тридцатилетнюю историю Евросоюз, который на основании своих уставных документов является невоенной торгово-экономической организацией, впервые принял подобные решения по военным вопросам, то есть фактически стал военным довеском Североатлантического союза. И это немудрено: из 27 стран, входящих в ЕС, 21 государство одновременно является членом НАТО.

В принятом 25 марта заявлении саммита ЕС полностью повторяются лживые утверждения в отношении России по гуманитарным вопросам, которые содержались в упомянутом натовском итоговом заявлении от 24 марта. Как и в натовском документе, в нём нет ни одного критического слова в адрес властей Украины.

– В этом же ключе прошёл и саммит «Большой семёрки», на котором опять же солировал Джо Байден. Кстати, после саммитов он направился в Польшу…

– И это тоже знаменательный факт. Польша, которую когда-то Уинстон Черчилль назвал «гиеной Европы» из-за её агрессии против соседних стран, сегодня вновь демонстрирует это стремление. В частности, она не прочь полакомиться за счёт украинской государственности, введя натовские миротворческие силы, чтобы отхватить Львовскую, Тернопольскую, Ивано-Франковскую, Волынскую и Ровенскую области. И явно рассчитывала сделать это с американской помощью для чего и пригласила Джо Байдена в Варшаву.

Что он сказал польскому руководству по этому поводу, неизвестно. Сообщается лишь, что заокеанский гость в ходе переговоров с президентом Польши Анджеем Дудой пообещал прямую военную помощь Варшаве в случае нападения на эту страну с востока. В свою очередь Дуда попросил Байдена ускорить поставки современного вооружения из США. Речь идёт о зенитных ракетных комплексах Patriot, реактивных системах залпового огня M142 HIMARS, истребителях пятого поколения F-35 и танках Abrams.

Перед переговорами с Дудой Байден побывал в городе Жешув, который находится недалеко от польско-украинской границы и около которого с февраля дислоцируются подразделения американской 82-й воздушно-десантной дивизии. Напомню: под предлогом укрепления восточного фланга НАТО Пентагон перебросил дополнительно в Польшу сначала 1,7 тысяч военнослужащих, затем ещё 3 тысячи. До прибытия этих подразделений в Польше в рамках НАТО и двустороннего сотрудничества находились уже около 5 тысяч американских солдат и офицеров.

Во время встречи с американскими военнослужащими Байден произнёс несколько неоднозначных фраз. «Вы сами [всё] увидите, когда окажетесь там [на Украине]». Он не уточнил, в каком качестве и когда именно американские военнослужащие окажутся на территории Украины. В спешном порядке шокирующее высказывание Байдена были вынуждены прокомментировать в Белом доме, отметив, что у США, мол, нет планов отправлять американские войска на Украину. Представитель Белого дома заявил, что американский лидер «ясно дал понять, что мы не направляем войска США в Украину, и в этой позиции нет никаких изменений».

В Варшаве Байден также встретился с украинской делегацией, которую составили министры иностранных дел и обороны. В ходе встречи Киев в очередной раз получил обещания от США о развитии сотрудничества в военной области. «Ни одна другая страна не оказала Украине большей поддержки, чем США. И это очень важно… Сегодня мы получили дополнительные обещания от США о том, как будет развиваться наше оборонное сотрудничество, мы благодарны Соединённым Штатам за военную помощь и за санкции», – сказал в этой связи глава МИД Украины Дмитрий Кулеба.

Нет необходимости особо объяснять, что все эти решения и обещания порождают у киевских властей некие радужные надежды и лишь продлевают кровопролитие на украинской земле, приводят к новым тысячам жертв. Для неангажированных экспертов очевидно, что без военно-технической поддержки США и ряда их союзников представители Украины иначе вели бы себя за столом переговоров, а ВСУ уже исчерпали бы весь свой технический потенциал. Но одержимые антироссийскими планами влиятельные круги США, безусловно, весьма заинтересованы в том, чтобы украинский кризис не затухал.

Беседовал Владимир Кузарь. Источник: “Красная звезда”

НАТО и Россия: возможен ли конструктивный диалог?

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО Владимир Козин в программе “В центре внимания” на радио Sputnik.

Накануне генсек НАТО Йенс Столтенберг на пресс-конференции в Брюсселе призвал Россию к «прозрачности» в вопросе размещения ракетных комплексов «Искандер» в Калининградской области.

О том, на каком уровне сейчас происходят контакты Россия-НАТО, в прямом эфире радио #Sputnik поговорим с ведущим экспертом центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимиром Козиным и председателем Экспертного совета Фонда поддержки научных исследований «Мастерская евразийских идей» (Workshop of Eurasian Ideas) Григорием Трофимчуком.

Эфир от 15 февраля 2018г.

 

НАТО наращивает противостояние с Россией. На это направлены решения встречи глав военных ведомств альянса.

В Брюсселе на минувшей неделе прошло заседание министров обороны стран-членов НАТО. Каковы основные итоги этой встречи, и к чему они могут привести? Эти и другие вопросы стали темой интервью, которое дал нашему обозревателю известный политолог и аналитик Владимир Козин, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук.

– Владимир Петрович, какова ваша оценка состоявшейся встречи в Брюсселе с военно-политической точки зрения?

– Проведённое 15–16 июня мероприятие подтвердило главную направленность Североатлантического альянса: он был и остаётся агрессивным военным союзом, имеющим глобальные интересы наступательного характера и ориентированным на осуществление вмешательства во внутренние дела других государств. Это инициирует повышение военных расходов у всех входящих в НАТО стран, а также приводит к наращиванию их избыточных вооружений наступательного характера на многих региональных направлениях, что усугубляет и без того непростую международную обстановку в области безопасности.

В частности, министры обороны 30 государств, входящих в настоящее время в этот военный блок, подтвердили готовность повысить военные расходы, выделить больше военных сил и средств в распоряжение союза «трансатлантической солидарности», усилив и без того значительное комбинированное военное присутствие альянса в Европе, в частности, в его восточной части непосредственно у российских границ. По сути НАТО готовит Восточную Европу в качестве наиболее вероятного театра военных действий. Главным же военно-политическим итогом проведённой брюссельской встречи стало окончательное согласование документов и решений, выносимых на рассмотрение саммита НАТО, который планируется провести в конце июня в Мадриде.

– Какие конкретные решения были приняты на прошедшем заседании?

– Министры договорились усилить «силы сдерживания» альянса, в которые, начиная с мая 2012 года, входят ракетно-ядерные, противоракетные и обычные виды вооружений, сведённые в единый механизм. По словам генерального секретаря НАТО Йенса Столтенберга, усиление «сил сдерживания» означает значительное наращивание их боевых потенциалов, расширение территории развёртывания и повышение степени боеготовности. При этом особое внимание будет уделено их сосредоточению в районах передового базирования – непосредственно у границ России и Беларуссии. Произойдёт наращивание боевых потенциалов этого военного блока в четырёх сферах – на суше и море, а также в воздушной среде и киберпространстве.

Как заявил на итоговой пресс-конференции Столтенберг, альянс уже увеличил количество своих передовых боевых групп с четырёх до восьми. Сейчас планируется увеличить эти группы с батальонного до бригадного уровня, то есть с сотен до нескольких тысяч человек. Будут также развёрнуты военные базы «предварительного складирования» и дополнительные склады вооружений в Европе, которых и без того там немало.

Была выражена признательность Германии за готовность усилить своё участие в деятельности многонациональной боевой группы в Литве, которой командует офицер будесвера. Объявлено, что Франция возглавит аналогичную боевую группу НАТО в Румынии.

Генеральный секретарь упомянул о целесообразности создания «модели новых сил» НАТО, в которые должны войти больше сил и средств повышенной боеготовности, а также «специфические силы, заранее предоставленные для обеспечения обороны специфических союзников». Такие силы будут находиться на своей национальной территории в режиме «ожидания», а затем переброшены в другую страну при возникновении чрезвычайной ситуации.

– Были ли озвучены министрами какие-то подробности этой «модели» и состав «специфических сил»?

– На проведённом 15–16 июня мероприятии такие подробности раскрыты не были. Столтенберг лишь заявил, что согласована модель выделенных сил – preassigned forces, «которые будут предназначены и будут тренироваться для действий в конкретном регионе» Восточной Европы. Вполне возможно, что на мадридском саммите какие-то детали всё же будут изложены. В любом случае к таким новациям следует присмотреться с особым вниманием и реагировать на них адекватно.

– В каком ключе была рассмотрена ситуация на Украине и шла речь о необходимости поиска её урегулирования?

– Ситуация на Украине была рассмотрена не с точки зрения поиска путей её взаимоприемлемого политического урегулирования, а с позиции дальнейшего закрепления геополитических интересов Североатлантического союза в этой части Европы. При этом упор делается на продолжение конфликта и ведение боевых действий. Естественно, руками украинских вооружённых сил и националистических формирований. То есть путём, как это звучит на английском: proxy war, что в данном контексте имеет один вариант перевода: «война чужими руками».

В рамках мероприятия в Брюсселе был заслушан доклад украинского министра обороны, который требовал дополнительных вооружений. На полях министерской встречи в Брюсселе также состоялось заседание руководимой Соединёнными Штатами «Контактной группы по оказанию помощи Украине», которая рекомендовала расширить поставки вооружений и военной техники киевскому режиму.

Как признал на пресс-конференции генеральный секретарь НАТО Йенс Столтенберг, Североатлантический союз уже многие годы оказывает военную помощь Украине. «Союзники по НАТО – США, Великобритания, Канада и другие – годами тренировали украинские войска. Так что десятки тысяч украинских военнослужащих, которых обучали союзники по НАТО, сейчас на передовой воюют против российских сил», – заявил он при этом. И ещё раз подчеркнул, что альянс продолжит поддерживать Украину и дальше.

Столтенберг выразил надежду на то, что на мадридской встрече в верхах союзники по НАТО согласятся с предоставлением Киеву всеобъемлющего пакета помощи, которая позволит Украине в долгосрочном плане перейти от использования военной техники советского производства к современным видам военной техники альянса, а также «улучшить оперативную совместимость» в рамках трансатлантического союза.

– И какой вывод напрашивается в этой связи?

– Прежде всего, то, что, не являясь полноправным членом военного блока НАТО с политико-правовой точки зрения, Украина в нынешней обстановке фактически приобретает статус его непосредственного военного участника. Оно приведёт к дальнейшему фактическому расширению альянса в восточном направлении с украинским участием под ширмой «партнёра с особым статусом», который в своё время придумал бывший руководитель НАТО Яаап де Хооп Схеффер, то есть к превращению Украины в плацдарм противостояния с нашей страной. Это – неприемлемое развитие ситуации с точки зрения национальных интересов Российской Федерации, так как однозначно создаст дополнительные военные угрозы нашей стране.

– Что было заявлено о перспективах вхождения Швеции и Финляндии в НАТО в качестве его полноправных членов?

– Этот вопрос довольно бурно, судя по сообщениям информагентств, обсуждался на прошедшем заседании. Но из-за возражений Турции министрам пока не удалось согласовать приём в НАТО подавших заявки Финляндии и Швеции. Тем не менее, соответствующая заявка этих стран была поддержана, а потенциальное вступление в альянс названо историческим. Также подчеркнуто, что альянс будет усердно и активно работать над поиском такого решения. Если это произойдёт, то сухопутная граница альянса с Россией увеличится более чем вдвое.

Следует отметить, что главы военных ведомств стран НАТО также рассмотрели вопрос о расширении сотрудничества с Грузией. По словам министра обороны Грузии Джуаншера Бурчуладзе, который принял участие в этой встрече, на ней все участники отметили, что «Грузии нужно больше поддержки, больше помощи и конкретных шагов». В свою очередь Столтенберг заявил, что на встрече была отмечена необходимость укрепления сотрудничества с Тбилиси. «Окончательные решения зависят от саммита. Однако я ожидаю, что когда лидеры соберутся вместе, они подтвердят нашу политику открытых дверей и опять заявят то, что мы до этого говорили после саммита в Бухаресте о Грузии и членстве в НАТО», – сказал генсек альянса, имея в виду саммит, состоявшийся в румынской столице в 2008 году.

В заключение хотел бы подчеркнуть, что, учитывая характер прошедшей министерской встречи, не трудно предположить, что предстоящий саммит НАТО пройдёт в том же анитроссийском духе. Тем более что на нём планируется принять новую стратегию, в которой наряду с Россией противником альянса будет объявлен и Китай. Для этого на саммит приглашены Япония и Южная Корея. Всё это, безусловно, ещё более серьёзно осложнит геополитическую ситуацию в европейском регионе и в мире в целом.

Беседовал Владимир Кузарь. Источник: “Красная звезда”

 

НАТО превращает Европу в потенциальный плацдарм военных действий

Об этом шла речь на очередном совещании в штаб-квартире альянса.

НАТО всё более открыто воспринимает Европу как потенциальный театр военных действий. В очередной раз это подтвердило заседание глав военных ведомств стран – участниц НАТО, которое состоялось 13–14 февраля в Брюсселе и было посвящено обсуждению конкретных действий альянса после окончательного разрыва Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД).

Участники встречи предприняли ещё одну попытку оказать необоснованное давление на Российскую Федерацию в привязке к ДРСМД, голословно обвинив нашу страну в несоблюдении этого договорного акта. Словно заезженная грампластинка, генеральный секретарь НАТО Йенс Столтенберг без устали повторял, что российская крылатая ракета наземного базирования (КРНБ) 9М729 является нарушением этого договора, хотя Москва наглядно доказала обратное. Одновременно с этим натовский генсек стремился произвести благоприятное впечатление на мировое сообщество, заявив, что европейские страны не намерены размещать на своей территории новые ядерные ракеты наземного базирования и что Североатлантический альянс выступает за расширение государств – участников этого договора.

Что касается отказа от развёртывания новых американских ядерных КРНБ на Европейском континенте, то ни Соединённые Штаты как страна – разработчик этого деструктивного плана, ни НАТО в целом до сих пор не взяли на себя политическое и юридическое обязательства навсегда отказаться от размещения подобных ракетно-ядерных средств в столь густонаселённом районе мира. Наоборот, президент Дональд Трамп, по данным американской исследовательской Ассоциации по контролю над вооружениями, решительно настроен на то, чтобы завезти в некоторые европейские государства новую мобильно-грунтовую КРНБ средней дальности с обычным боезарядом. А что помешает Пентагону оснастить обновлённый безъядерный «Томагавк» ядерным боезарядом в случае необходимости? Ничто. Кроме того, рассматривается вариант создания ракеты малой дальности на базе ракетной системы АTMS сухопутных сил США.

Дональд Трамп, по данным американской исследовательской Ассоциации по контролю над вооружениями, решительно настроен на то, чтобы завезти в некоторые европейские государства новую мобильно-грунтовую КРНБ средней дальности

Крайне сомнительной выглядит и схема разработки нового ДРСМД-2. Согласно ей, первоначальный ДРСМД 1987 года должен быть сначала разорван по инициативе Вашингтона, а затем когда-то восстановлен с привлечением ограниченного количества других государств. В этом контексте Йенс Столтенберг назвал в Брюсселе только Индию, Иран, КНР и Пакистан. Но безо всяких объяснений он исключил из этого списка Великобританию, Францию, Израиль и КНДР, из которых две первые страны являются, как известно, членами НАТО.

Примечательно, что в рамках брюссельской встречи Йенс Столтенберг дал ясно понять, что Североатлантический союз воспринимает будущую военно-политическую ситуацию в мире уже без этого договорного акта. Голословно заявив о готовности блока взаимодействовать с Россией по ДРСМД, он тут же объявил, что НАТО приступает к подготовке оборонительных мер из-за прекращения действия договора 1987 года, которые должны обеспечить надёжные и эффективные меры сдерживания. Естественно, что детали таких мер были обсуждены за закрытыми дверями февральского заседания. Есть вероятность, что они будут оглашены в апреле этого года на юбилейном саммите НАТО в Вашингтоне, который будет посвящён 70-летней годовщине создания этого военного блока, или в каком-то специальном заявлении.

Сама за себя говорит и финансовая подпитка военных приготовлений блока. На брюссельском заседании отмечалось, что в текущем году государства НАТО израсходовали на военные нужды на 41 млрд долларов больше, чем в 2016 году. Была высказана уверенность, что к концу 2020 года такие расходы возрастут ещё на 100 млрд долларов. Дональд Трамп по-прежнему настойчиво требует от каждого государства – члена союза к 2024 году поднять уровень военных расходов до двух процентов от ВВП, а в последующем даже до четырёх.

На пресс-конференции Йенса Столтенберга в бельгийской столице было помпезно заявлено, что НАТО активно поддерживает значимые усилия по контролю над во¬оружениями и нераспространению, а также не желает новой гонки вооружений. Но названные выше цифры и факты свидетельствуют об обратном. Об этом говорит и то, что США и Североатлантический союз в целом уже давно ведут линию на то, чтобы взломать контролирующую международно-правовую систему в военной сфере и инициировать многоплановую гонку евроракетных, противоракетных и ударных космических вооружений.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: “Красная звезда”

НАТО продолжает раздувать пламя войны на Украине

На это направлены продолжающиеся поставки киевскому режиму оружия и боевой техники

«Руки НАТО обагрены кровью, а сам блок является серьёзной угрозой для международной и региональной безопасности», – написала на днях китайская газета «Глобал таймс», подчеркнув при этом, что украинский кризис вызван именно действиями США и возглавляемого ими Североатлантического альянса. И с этой оценкой нельзя не согласиться, тем более что НАТО продолжает разжигать пламя войны вокруг Украины. Очередным свидетельством тому стала экстренная встреча министров обороны стран блока, прошедшая 16 марта в Брюсселе. Какие решения приняты на ней, и на что они направлены? Об этом идёт речь в интервью, которое дал нашей газете известный политолог Владимир Козин, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук Российской Федерации.

– Владимир Петрович, на ваш взгляд, чем руководствовался Брюссель, созывая «чрезвычайную», как её назвали на Западе, встречу министров обороны стран НАТО, учитывая, что предыдущий, плановый, саммит на таком уровне состоялся всего лишь месяц назад?

– Вне всякого сомнения, поводом для этого послужила специальная военная операция, которую проводит Россия с целью демилитаризации и денацификации Украины и защиты населения Донбасса. А если быть точнее, то её успех, который стал неожиданным для США и НАТО. На протяжении восьми лет Вашингтон, который решил воспользоваться Украиной для ослабления России, и его ближайшие сторонники в НАТО активно накачивали «незалежную» различным оружием и боевой техникой, усиленно готовили её вооружённые силы к использованию этого потенциала и ведению наступательных операций, подогревали националистические настроения. Все это было нацелено на то, чтобы украинский конфликт, для раздувания которого Соединённые Штаты приложили немало политических и финансовых усилий, а также тайных акций спецслужб, продлился как можно дольше.

И когда российские войска в считанные дни оказались под Киевом, когда они очистили от неонацистов ряд крупных украинских центров, когда силы Донецкой и Луганской Народных Республик при военной поддержке со стороны России освободили от украинских воинских формирований практически всю территорию своих областей, США и НАТО решили в срочном порядке предпринять конкретные действия, чтобы спасти ситуацию, которая стала развиваться не по их сценарию.

– И о чём конкретно шла речь на этой встрече?

– Да в принципе всё о том же – о поддержке агрессивно-милитаристской политики нынешнего киевского режима. Натовские военные преступники, я бы так их назвал, а не какие там «наши партнёры», как порой до сих пор ещё можно встретить такое их определение в российских СМИ, договорились, что поддержка, оказываемая Украине Североатлантическим альянсом, должна продолжаться, в том числе «в виде поставок различных видов вооружений, финансовой и гуманитарной помощи».

По словам генсека НАТО Йенса Столтенберга, в альянсе понимают отчаяние президента Зеленского и поэтому активизируют поддержку Украины, включая поставки «продвинутых» противовоздушных и противотанковых систем, горючего и боеприпасов. При этом Столтенберг гордо добавил, что НАТО активно помогала развитию украинской армии с 2014 года и «подготовила десятки тысяч солдат Украины, которые сейчас на передовых позициях».

 

«Мы по-прежнему едины в нашей поддержке Украины», – заявил в свою очередь министр обороны США Ллойд Остин, выступая на этой встрече. «Мы поддерживаем её способность защищать себя», – подчеркнул он при этом.

Как сообщил американский телеканал NBC, Вашингтон, в рамках нового пакета военной помощи Украине, рассматривает возможность передачи ей «барражирующих боеприпасов» Switchblades, предназначенных для расширения боевых возможностей пехотных подразделений.

Напомню также, что на днях президент США Джо Байден заявил, что Украине будет оказана дополнительная военная помощь на сумму 800 млн долларов. Комментируя это решение, официальный представитель Белого дома Джен Псаки пояснила: «Мы осуществляем поставки или перевозки каждый день или каждые пару дней… Лишь за последние две недели мы сумели успешно и эффективно передать военную помощь на 300 млн долларов украинцам на местах. Мы будем прилагать усилия, чтобы продолжить быстро предоставить им боевую технику».

Отмечу также, что из 30 государств-членов альянса семнадцать стран уже втянулись в эту позорную авантюру, которая на английском языке называется «proxy war» или «война чужими руками». С 24 февраля они направили в Украину более 20 тысяч единиц противотанкового и другого оружия.

– На встрече обсуждалась не только украинская тема…

– Естественно. Но украинская была доминирующей. Спекулируя на возникшей ситуации, министры обороны стран НАТО приняли решение об укреплении системы коллективной обороны и сдерживания альянса во всех пяти сферах – на земле и море, в небе, космосе и киберпространстве. Сообщая об этом, тот же Столтеберг похвастался военным потенциалом альянса. Это, в частности, порядка ста тысяч американских солдат и офицеров в Европе плюс до 40 тысяч военнослужащих многонациональных сил быстрого реагирования, в основном в восточной части Европы. Однако сегодня страны альянса столкнулись, по его словам, «с новой реальностью для своей безопасности», и им требуется «перенастроить систему коллективной обороны и сдерживания на более длительный период».

В этой связи главы оборонных ведомств стран НАТО получили указание подготовить варианты укрепления системы коллективной обороны и сил сдерживания альянса. Как подчеркнул Столтенберг, новое видение безопасности альянса предполагает размещение на суше значительно большего количества сил, оборудования и запасов вооружений в восточной зоне альянса. Должно появиться «больше союзной авиации и систем ПВО и ПРО». На море предполагается нахождение «на постоянной основе ударных групп авианосцев, подлодок и значительного числа боевых кораблей». По словам генсека, НАТО изучит перспективы усиления своей кибербезопасности и использования имеющихся у стран альянса средств в космосе.

– Не трудно догадаться, что всё это потребует от стран НАТО увеличения военных расходов…

– Само собой разуется. Да, собственно говоря, генсек альянса и не скрывал этого. Как он отметил на пресс-конференции по итогам встречи, заявленное на ней «значительное укрепление коллективных сил сдерживания и обороны» альянса потребует выделения соответствующих крупных инвестиций. Столтенберг приветствовал заявления союзников об увеличении расходов на военные цели и вновь заявил, что всем им без исключения необходимо выделить минимум два процента от их ВВП на военные цели.

Приведённая в общем виде формулировка «значительное укрепление коллективных сил сдерживания» Североатлантического альянса означает также усиление ядерных сил США, которые находятся на Европейском континенте с середины 50-х годов прошлого столетия. В данном случае речь идёт об обновлении американских тактических ядерных боезарядов на территории четырех государств в Европе (Бельгии, Италии, Нидерландов и ФРГ), а также в азиатской части Турции при одновременном наращивании авиационных средств доставки таких вооружений.

– Надо полагать, что обо всем этом пойдёт речь и на «чрезвычайном саммите» НАТО, а также саммите Евросоюза, которые пройдут 24–25 марта и участие в которых примет президент США Джо Байден…

– Сомневаться не приходиться. Тем более что в Вашингтоне уже заявили, что хозяин Белого дома направляется в Европу, чтобы на саммите альянса обсудить «текущие усилия по сдерживанию и обороне», а также подтвердит «непоколебимую приверженность США союзникам по НАТО». Что же касается саммита Евросоюза, то на нём намечено согласовать с европейскими союзниками дополнительные экономические санкции против России, то есть экономического «удушения» нашей страны.

Налицо стремление Вашингтона – мобилизовать всех своих союзников, причём чаще всего вопреки их подлинным национальным интересам, на силовое и экономическое противостояние с Россией, которую США объявили своим основным противником.

– Каковы ваши личные позиции, которые следует принять во внимание в этой связи?

– Всегда держать порох сухим. Продолжать разрабатывать и принимать на вооружение новые виды гиперзвуковых и высокоточных видов вооружений. Внимательно следить за всеми военными приготовлениями альянса вообще и на отдельных региональных направлениях, в частности. В особенности, у российских рубежей и рубежей Республики Беларусь. Никогда не верить руководству НАТО на слово. Добиваться от него письменных обязательств по гарантиям безопасности и различным проблемам контроля над вооружениями, если таковые договорённости когда-то будут достигнуты. Усилить информационно-разъяснительную работу против НАТО и его агрессивной сущности в российских СМИ.

Беседовал Владимир Кузарь. Источник:  «Красная звезда»

 

НАТО продолжит «ехать» по старой колее

Брюссельский саммит подтвердил курс альянса на расширение военных приготовлений

Североатлантический альянс, несмотря на наличие определённых внутренних противоречий, продолжает смотреть на мир через призму «холодной войны» и следовать курсом расширения военных приготовлений. Таков главный итог состоявшегося 11–12 июля в бельгийской столице очередного саммита НАТО.

Ключевые решения

Принятые в Брюсселе решения подтвердили ранее заявленную установку НАТО действовать инициативно в глобальном масштабе под предлогом противодействия «агрессивной» России, терроризму и другим вызовам. Впервые прозвучала новая формулировка о переходе союза к стратегии «кругового обзора в 360 градусов» с целью обеспечения региональной и глобальной безопасности. В частных беседах высокопоставленные военные представители альянса интерпретировали этот «обзор» как охватывающий морские, сухопутные и воздушные пространства.

Была повторена установка блока выполнять три основные задачи, изложенные ранее в его стратегической концепции 2010 года: обеспечивать коллективную оборону, кризисное регулирование и безопасность всех членов союза. Государства – члены НАТО обязались повысить степень боевой готовности, скорость развёртывания, способность обеспечения продолжительности военных операций и оперативную совместимость своих вооружённых сил.

Повторена формулировка трёх предыдущих саммитов о том, что политика сдерживания и обороны союза базируется на «адекватном сочетании ядерных, обычных и противоракетных вооружений». Иными словами, участники встречи на высшем уровне повторили, что этот стратегический механизм, получивший неофициальное название «чикагская триада» после саммита НАТО в Чикаго в 2012 году, будет действовать и впредь. Его остриё будет направлено против России, КНР, Ирана и КНДР.

НАТО не проявило особого интереса к решению накопившихся вопросов контроля над вооружениями. Декларативно и в лапидарном виде было лишь заявлено, что организация привержена контролю над вооружениями, разоружению и нераспространению. Однако это, как известно, не соответствует действительности.

Альянс сохранит американское тактическое ядерное оружие в Европе на территории пяти союзных неядерных государств в нарушение Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия. США оставят без изменений стратегию «расширенного ядерного сдерживания», подразумевающую раскрытие ядерного зонтика над всеми союзниками по НАТО и некоторыми внеблоковыми партнёрами. Американская сторона также не откажется от «соглашений о разделении ядерной ответственности», известных также как «соглашения о совместных ядерных миссиях», со своими союзниками, которые позволяют неядерным членам блока принимать участие в военных учениях с условным применением ядерного оружия, складировать реальные ядерные боезаряды на своей территории.

Будет продолжено наращивание инфраструктуры ПРО в глобальном масштабе и сил общего назначения в Европе, в том числе в формате сил быстрого реагирования и объединённого оперативного соединения высокой готовности. Наряду с США, активно продолжающими развёртывание глобальной системы ПРО морского и наземного базирования, Североатлантический союз утвердил новую комбинированную силовую структуру: «Интегрированная противовоздушная и противоракетная система НАТО», в которой оперативно объединены радиолокационные, командно-штабные и ударно-боевые компоненты ПВО и ПРО. В частности, стало известно, что морской противоракетный компонент блока будет развиваться, по меньшей мере, до 2075 года! Государства, представленные на саммите, договорились и о разработке «всеобъемлющей политики НАТО в области космоса».

Упор на мобильность

Ещё более активной станет военная деятельность блока в странах, непосредственно прилегающих к территории Российской Федерации. Увеличится количество военных учений и манёвров в этой зоне. На это нацеливает прямая установка саммита: ещё больше укреплять средства передового базирования Североатлантического союза на его восточном фланге.

На это направлена и инициатива под названием «4 по 30» по обеспечению оперативной готовности вооружённых сил стран блока, которая предусматривает, что к 2020 году союзники должны располагать 30 механизированными батальонами, 30 авиационными эскадрильями и 30 боевыми кораблями, готовыми к использованию в течение 30 дней. На саммите она получила новое уточнение: формулировка «готовыми к использованию в течение 30 дней» теперь стала звучать как «готовыми к использованию в течение 30 дней и в более короткие сроки». Одновременно на саммите было объявлено о начальном оперативном потенциале «воздушной мобильности быстрого реагирования».

Сняты дипломатические и пограничные формальности с целью облегчения пересечения межгосударственных границ вооружёнными силами блока по суше, воздуху и по морю в течение пяти дней к концу 2019 года с возможностью последующего сокращения этого срока для оперативной переброски дополнительных подкреплений.

На морских пространствах поставлены задачи по совершенствованию противолодочных, минных и противоминных операций, высадке десантов с моря и защиты морских коммуникаций в целом.

Североатлантический союз заявил о повышении своих разведывательных возможностей, в том числе путём проведения глубокой стратегической разведки.

Были подписаны два меморандума о совместном сотрудничестве в производстве «ключевых» боеприпасов для сухопутных войск и ВМС. Под первым меморандумом, который охватывает «широкий спектр боеприпасов» (без их детализации), подписи поставили представители 16 государств альянса, в том числе Италия, Франция, ФРГ, Польша, все три государства Балтии и три государства, имеющие партнёрские связи, в частности Финляндия. Второй меморандум по боеприпасам ВМС одобрили семь государств, включая Францию, Бельгию, Италию и Польшу. К таким боеприпасам были отнесены ракеты ПВО и класса «поверхность – поверхность», торпеды и артиллерийские снаряды.

Саммит закрепил стремление к расширению сотрудничества альянса с Финляндией и Швецией в районе Балтийского моря, что может быть интерпретировано как очередной шаг к их вовлечению в НАТО, а также с другими партнёрами в зоне Средиземного и Чёрного морей, Западных Балкан. Создан штаб многонациональной дивизии «Северо-восток», который начнёт свою работу к декабрю 2018 года. Намечено укрепить командно-управленческие структуры в Балтийском регионе посредством создания дополнительного многонационального дивизионного штаба.

В публичных заявлениях в ходе саммита и генеральный секретарь НАТО Йенс Столтенберг, и верховный главнокомандующий вооружёнными силами НАТО в Европе генерал Куртис Скапаротти сделали явный «юго-восточный акцент» – на усиление военной составляющей в блоке со стороны Румынии, где создана многонациональная рамочная бригада для обучения сухопутных войск стран НАТО. Итоговый документ признал «существенное усиление присутствия и деятельности НАТО» в зоне Чёрного моря. Складывается впечатление, что альянс намерен уделять южноевропейскому направлению повышенное внимание – очевидно, из-за украинского фактора.

Дилемма военных расходов

Признав наличие ряда глубоких разногласий между его участниками, в том числе по проблемам повышения военных расходов, экологии, торговли и миграции, Йенс Столтенберг особо выделил первый вопрос. На его решении постоянно настаивает американский президент.

По утверждению генсека НАТО, в текущем году пять стран-участниц вышли на запланированный рубеж в два процента от ВВП, который должен быть достигнут к 2024 году всеми государствами блока. Такой показатель уже превзошли: США (3,5 процента); Греция (2,27),Эстония (2,14), Великобритания (2,10) и Латвия (2 процента). К концу 2018 года на обозначенный уровень также выйдут Польша, Литва и Румыния, которые вплотную приблизились к двухпроцентному уровню: по состоянию на июль они расходовали на оборону соответственно: 1,98; 1,96 и 1,93 процента от ВВП.

Пока не все члены альянса дали чёткие обязательства на этот счёт. Только 16 или 55 процентов государств – членов НАТО сделали заявления о том, что они выполнят взятые финансовые обязательства к 2024 году. Среди активно сопротивляющихся давлению Белого дома из 12 государств значится ФРГ. Ее министр обороны Урсула фон дер Ляйен на встрече с журналистами, отвечая на вопрос, когда Берлин планирует поднять планку своих расходов на военные цели (в текущем году они составляли 1,24 процента от ВВП), отшутилась, что за остающийся шестилетний период выхода на обозначенный крайний рубеж немецкое руководство не может с большой точностью рассчитать объём даже самого ВВП, не говоря уже о процентах на военные нужды от его показателей.

В рамках саммита, как и предполагалось, Дональд Трамп завёл разговор о выделении на военные цели уже не двух, а четырёх процентов от ВВП, но этот показатель в итоговом документе встречи зафиксирован не был. Настроение целого ряда государств в НАТО, которые начинают испытывать раздражение от напористости американского президента, передал председатель Европейского совета Дональд Туск, который открыто заявил: «Дорогая Америка, уважай своих союзников. В конце концов, их у тебя не так уж много». Однако Дональд Трамп, по словам «Нью-Йорк таймс» за 13 июля, проигнорировал это деликатное, но всё же прямолинейное высказывание, на которое в кулуарах саммита все обратили внимание.

Не было проявлено единства в рядах блока и на другом «расходном» направлении: до настоящего времени чуть более половины государств – членов НАТО выполняют решения уэльского саммита 2014 года о расходовании 20 процентов оборонных трат на разработку основных видов вооружений и военной техники, включая связанные с ними НИОКР. К 2024 году не все, а только 24 страны НАТО в соответствии с их национальными планами выйдут на рекомендуемый процентный показатель.

Брюссельский саммит подтвердил, что двери для приёма новых членов «остаются открытыми». И скорее всего в эти «двери» НАТО в ближайшее время втянет Македонию. Нельзя не видеть, что в альянсе делают всё для того, чтобы Македония оказалась в числе его членов. А вот у Грузии и Украины, несмотря на в буквальном смысле мольбы их президентов, озвученные ими на отдельном совместном брифинге, шансы на этот счёт не особенно велики – никто в руководстве НАТО твёрдых обязательств о быстром вступлении этих стран в блок так и не дал.

С оглядкой на Хельсинки

Саммит не смог выйти из своего инициативно созданного тупика в подходе к отношениям с Россией. Практически во всех выступлениях высокопоставленных деятелей альянса на встрече в верхах в Брюсселе содержались враждебные выпады в адрес Российской Федерации. Правда, таких выпадов стало несколько меньше, чем на предыдущем варшавском саммите, состоявшемся два года назад, но они не прекратились.

Североатлантический союз по-прежнему стремится к конфронтации с Россией, продолжает необоснованную, а иногда просто искажённую антироссийскую линию обвинительного характера, а его специфическая военная активность у российских рубежей представляет непосредственную, постоянно действующую комбинированную военную угрозу, которую нельзя игнорировать или умалять.

Вместе с тем в итоговой декларации брюссельской встречи было заявлено, что Североатлантический союз не стремится к конфронтации и не представляет угрозы для России, а также «оставляет открытой возможность для политического диалога». За активный диалог НАТО и России высказались генсек альянса Йенс Столтенберг и генерал Куртис Скапаротти, подчеркнув при этом важность поддержания с нашей страной контактов на военном уровне во избежание роста напряжённости. В этом же ключе выступали и многие другие представители альянса.

Эти заявления, явно противоречащие принятым на саммите решениям, большинство из которых имеют антироссийскую направленность, несомненно, сделаны с оглядкой на саммит в Хельсинки. Они свидетельствуют о серьёзной обеспокоенности военно-политического руководства НАТО намеченной на 16 июля встречей Владимира Путина и Дональда Трампа. В кулуарах брюссельского саммита даже открыто говорили об этом, отмечая, что не знают, что ожидать от этой встречи, и чем она может обернуться для альянса. В этой связи совершенно очевидно, что на фоне встречи лидеров России и США саммит НАТО отходит в тень. Тем более что он не принёс по сути ничего нового, а лишь подтвердил, что альянс продолжает «ехать» по старой, давно заезженной колее.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: “Красная звезда”

Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/41932

НАТО: курс на ещё большую агрессивность

Каковы основные итоги брюссельской встречи и можно ли по ним спрогнозировать ключевые решения, которые будут приняты на саммите в Мадриде в конце июня?

15-16 июня в Брюсселе состоялось заседание министров обороны стран-членов НАТО, ставшее традиционным перед проведением саммитов альянса. Очередной из них запланирован на конец текущего месяца в испанской столице. Проведённое мероприятие подтвердило главную направленность трансатлантического альянса: он был и остаётся агрессивным военным союзом, имеющим стабильные глобальные интересы наступательного характера и ориентированным на осуществление вооружённого вмешательства во внутренние дела других государств. Всё это подрывает стратегическую стабильность в мире, инициирует повышение военных расходов у всех входящих в НАТО стран, а также приводит к наращиванию избыточных вооружений наступательного характера на многих региональных направлениях. 

НАТО готовит «специфические силы»

Главным военно-политическим итогом проведённой брюссельской встречи стало окончательное подтверждение в принципиальном плане списка заключительных документов и основополагающих решений встречи в верхах НАТО в Мадриде.

В частности, министры обороны 30 государств, входящих в настоящее время в этот военный блок, подтвердили его готовность повысить военные расходы стран-участниц, выделить больше военных сил и средств в распоряжение союза «трансатлантической солидарности», усилив и без того его значительное комбинированное военное присутствие на  европейском континенте и, в частности, в его восточной части.

Министры договорились расширить силы сдерживания альянса, в которые, начиная с мая 2012 года, то есть с чикагского саммита НАТО, входят ракетно-ядерные, противоракетные и обычные виды вооружений, сведённые в единый механизм. По словам генерального секретаря НАТО Йенса Столтенберга, «министры начнут важное обсуждение конкретных мер по усилению нашей безопасности на долгосрочную перспективу во всех сферах». При этом особое внимание будет уделено их развёртыванию в районах передового базирования - имеется в виду относительно России и Беларуси. Произойдёт наращивание боевых потенциалов этого военного блока в четырёх сферах - на суше и море, а также в воздушной среде и киберпространстве. Будут развёрнуты военные базы «предварительного складирования» и дополнительные склады вооружений в Европе, которых и без того там немало.

Была выражена признательность ФРГ за готовность усилить своё участие в деятельности боевой группы альянса в Литве, которой руководит германская сторона. Сообщено, что Франция возглавит аналогичную боевую группу НАТО в Румынии.

Генеральный секретарь упомянул о целесообразности создания «модели новых сил» НАТО, в которые должны войти больше сил и средств повышенной боеготовности, а также «специфические силы, заранее предоставленные для обеспечения обороны специфических союзников». Эти силы будут находиться на своей национальной территории в режиме «ожидания», а затем переброшены в другую страну при возникновении чрезвычайной ситуации. Такой заход никаких ассоциаций с Украиной не вызывает? Похоже, что вызывает. Причём самые прямые ассоциации и параллели.

Какие-то подробности этой «модели» и состав названных «специфических сил» на проведённом 15-16 июня мероприятии раскрыты не были. Вполне возможно, что на мадридском саммите некие детали озвученного замысла всё же будут изложены. В любом случае, к таким новациям следует присмотреться с особым вниманием и реагировать на них адекватно.

Цель - «война чужими руками»

Примечательно, что формулировки по проблематике контроля над вооружениями, процесс которого буквально застыл на месте по инициативе США и НАТО в целом, отсутствовали. О потенциальных гарантиях безопасности на европейском континенте также ничего не было сказано.

Ситуация на Украине была рассмотрена не с точки зрения поиска путей её взаимоприемлемого политического урегулирования, а с позиции дальнейшего закрепления геополитических интересов Североатлантического союза в этой части Европы, а также с ориентацией на продолжение третьей по счёту агрессии преступного киевского режима против граждан ДНР и ЛНР. Руками украинских вооружённых сил и националистических вооружённых формирований. То есть путём, как это звучит на английском: «proxy war», что в данном контексте имеет один вариант перевода - «война чужими руками». Но не как: «война по доверенности» или «прокси-война».

Видно, что министры обороны НАТО не приняли во внимание твёрдое убеждение граждан Донбасса, не желающих жить в составе ультранационалистического и несостоятельного государства, которое добровольно и под давлением своих патронов извне по существу утратило государственную самостоятельность, независимость и суверенитет, а также основательно разрушило свою экономику и радикально подорвало уровень жизни своего населения.

В рамках мероприятия в Брюсселе был заслушан доклад украинского министра обороны, который требовал дополнительных вооружений.  Ответственного за третью агрессию против Донбасса - президента Зеленского - будут рады видеть в Мадриде. Об этом было объявлено.

На полях министерской встречи в Брюсселе состоялось заседание руководимой Соединёнными Штатами «Контактной группы по оказанию помощи Украине», которая рекомендовала расширить поставки вооружений и военной техники этому государству-агрессору. В состоявшейся дискуссии приняли участие около 40 государств - как члены НАТО, так и «государства-партнёры». Они приветствовали выделение Киеву на военные цели дополнительно ещё одного миллиарда долларов, недавно предоставленных Вашингтоном, который является главным идейным вдохновителем и пособником украинской агрессии и проведения политики геноцида против жителей Донбасса.

Как заявил на пресс-конференции генеральный секретарь НАТО Йенс Столтенберг, в ответ на военную акцию России против Украины трансатлантический альянс, который уже имеет под своим непосредственным командованием свыше 40 тысяч человек в Европе в составе сил быстрого развёртывания, увеличит количество своих боевых групп с четырёх до восьми. Уточнена «зона их ответственности» - она будет простираться от Балтийского до Чёрного морей. Значит, будет охватывать и Украину.

Руководитель альянса признал, что Североатлантический союз уже многие годы оказывал военную помощь Украине. Он сообщил, что участники июньской встречи в Брюсселе «взяли обязательство продолжать предоставление военной техники, в которой особо нуждается Украина, включая тяжёлые виды вооружений большой дальности». Он также выразил надежду на то, что на мадридской встрече в верхах союзники по НАТО согласятся с предоставлением Киеву всеобъемлющего пакета помощи, который позволит Украине в долгосрочном плане перейти от использования военной техники советского производства к современным видам военной техники альянса, а также «улучшить оперативную совместимость» в рамках трансатлантического союза. Йенс Столтенберг не скрывал, что системы вооружений, поставляемые натовскими странами киевскому режиму, будут иметь «смертоносный» характер.

С учётом изложенных двух факторов получается, что, не становясь полноправным участником этого военного блока с политико-правовой точки зрения в нынешней обстановке, Украина фактически приобретает статус его непосредственного военного участника.

Это - неприемлемое развитие ситуации с точки зрения национальных интересов Российской Федерации. Оно приведёт к дальнейшему фактическому расширению членского состава НАТО в восточном направлении с украинским участием под ширмой «партнёра с особым статусом», который в своё время придумал бывший руководитель НАТО Яап де Хооп Схеффер. Это однозначно создаст дополнительные военные угрозы нашей стране. Но, как известно, у нас такие угрозы без внимания не остаются.

На встрече в Брюсселе была поддержана заявка на вхождение Швеции и Финляндии в НАТО в качестве его полноправных членов, а их потенциальное вступление в альянс названо «историческим». Но отвечая на вопрос украинского журналиста, а не настало ли время принять Украину в ряды альянса, Йенс Столтенберг ушёл от конкретного ответа. Хорошо, если бы в штаб-квартире альянса раз и навсегда поняли, что Москва не потерпит никакого участия Киева в этом военном блоке, причём в любом качестве и в любом камуфляже.

Не забегать вперёд натовского паровоза

Итоги заседания глав оборонных ведомств стран, входящих в НАТО, которое состоялось приблизительно за полмесяца до открытия саммита альянса в Мадриде, показывают, что он станет самым агрессивным в истории этого крупнейшего военного блока. На нём будет принята его новая Стратегическая концепция, которая заменит предыдущую, принятую двенадцать лет назад, не отличавшуюся миролюбием.

В обновлённой стратегии впервые в качестве потенциального противника альянса помимо России будет назван Китай. Будут также заложены основы более опасного этапа холодной войны, которая, вопреки широко утвердившемуся во многих государствах мнению, под военным напором коллективного Запада никогда не прекращалась. Слишком многие факторы свидетельствуют о том, что господствующие в НАТО опасные милитаристские тенденции, которые проявлялись в его прежних концептуально-стратегических установках и практических военных приготовлениях в ходе многих десятилетий и во всех районах мира, к сожалению, сохранятся.

В этих условиях звучащие сегодня, в том числе и в России, предложения о целесообразности начала в нынешней тревожной военно-политической обстановке каких-то официальных переговоров с Вашингтоном по проблематике укрепления стратегической стабильности, ограничения или сокращения российских вооружений, создаваемых на основе передовых технологий, с точки зрения интересов безопасности Российской Федерации, а также аналогичных интересов её союзников и друзей, представляются преждевременными и даже опасными.

В последнее время у нас стали раздаваться голоса о разработке подходов к дальнейшему сокращению стратегических наступательных вооружений, имея в виду ядерных СНВ. А мы не слишком торопимся, зная, что Договор СНВ-3 продлён до февраля 2026 года? Не слишком ли забегаем вперёд, ещё не проанализировав итоговые документы мадридского саммита НАТО, которые обещают быть самыми радикальными и жёсткими в отношении России. Ведь может случиться и так, что решения, которые будут приняты в Мадриде, окажутся такими, что мы будем вынуждены вообще отказаться от продления Договора СНВ-3 ещё на последующие пять лет или от попытки заключить новый договорный акт - Договор СНВ-4. Ведь в НАТО уже проработан вопрос о продолжении силового противостояния в Донбассе ещё на несколько лет, да ещё с его полным присоединением к Украине, с изгнанием оттуда всех, кто не согласен жить под её варварско-враждебным управлением.

Уверен, что разработанные у нас перспективные виды вооружений и военной техники нам ещё пригодятся. При этом надо не только не забывать горькие восьмилетние уроки Донбасса, но и учитывать с самой глубокой серьёзностью, что Вашингтон по-прежнему негативно относится к тринадцати двусторонним и многосторонним соглашениям в сфере контроля над вооружениями и руководствуется пятью ключевыми военными стратегиями наступательного характера, наиболее опасное острие которых направлено против Российской Федерации.

Автор: Владимир Козин, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России. Источник: Еженедельник “Звезда”.

 

 

НАТО: необоснованные претензии к России в зоне Балтики

Они могут быть решены путем снижения опасной инициативной военной активности альянса в регионе

Помимо концентрации избыточного количества вооружений вокруг Калининградской области, которая была окончательно передана СССР по итогам Второй мировой войны, а также проводя в непосредственной близости от нее комбинированные военные учения, наиболее агрессивные в военном отношении государства Североатлантического союза предпринимают попытки обеспечить информационное прикрытие собственных масштабных военных приготовлений в районе Балтики.

Для этого в штаб-квартире НАТО в Брюсселе и в ряде научно-исследовательских центров Запада пишутся гипотетические сценарии развития обстановки применительно к Калининградской области и высказываются «глубокие озабоченности».

Один из сценариев предусматривает нанесение с ее территории инициативного ракетного удара Вооруженными силами России по ряду государств Балтийского региона и центральной части Европы, в том числе по военным объектам НАТО. Вместе с тем, хорошо известно, что Москва никогда не заявляла о планировании таких акций и не создавала мощной материальной основы для их претворения в жизнь с помощью фронтальных наступательных операций, да еще с захватом чужих территорий.

В основе другого утверждения лежит стремление трансатлантического альянса «укрепить безопасность» в зоне Балтийского моря и на прилегающих к нему территориях. Но вот российская сторона, дескать, создает на этом пути «непреодолимые препятствия» военно-технического и политико-дипломатического характера.

В порядке оказания информационного прессинга на Москву в НАТО уже давно практикуется необоснованное обвинение российской стороны в «несоблюдении» действующего многостороннего Договора по открытому небу применительно к Калининградской области. Утверждается, что российская сторона создает препятствия для пролетов инспекционных групп других государств-участников над ее территорией. Но такая претензия является необоснованной, так как в тексте договора имеется положение, которое разрешает любой его стране-участнице вводить ограничения на полеты зарубежных инспекционных групп, например, в зонах интенсивного воздушного движения пассажирских судов гражданской авиации. В данном случае это касается полетной зоны аэропорта «Храброво» – единственного действующего в этом российском эксклаве гражданского аэродрома внутрироссийского и международного значения.

Руководство НАТО уже не раз выдвигало против Москвы еще три претензии, которые, по его мнению, должны быть обязательно и безотлагательно решены.

Государства Североатлантического союза уже неоднократно, в том числе с помощью Финляндии, не являющейся ее участницей, пытались привлечь внимание балтийской и мировой общественности к тому, что российские военные самолеты в районе Балтийского моря летают с выключенными транспондерами. Российская сторона пошла навстречу таким пожеланиям. Более года назад она предложила государствам, входящим в трансатлантический пакт, решить этот вопрос на основе взаимности. А именно выступила с инициативой, чтобы военные самолеты сторон, летающие в воздушном пространстве над Балтийским регионом, использовали транспондеры, как это делают сейчас гражданские самолеты. Но получила из НАТО твердый отказ.

Руководство этого военного пакта неоднократно обращало внимание российской стороны и на «опасное» сближение военных самолетов и боевых кораблей в зоне Балтики. Но когда Москва предложила альянсу условиться о минимально допустимых дистанциях сближения военных кораблей и воздушных судов России и Североатлантического союза во время их движения в регионе, то штаб-квартира альянса проигнорировала и эту инициативу.

Естественно, что Россия была и впредь будет обязана реагировать на возросшую активность ВВС и ВМС НАТО в непосредственной близости от российских рубежей. А надо заметить: в последние годы подобная активность возросла многократно, и не отслеживать передвижения таких сил, а также полеты в регионе тяжелых стратегических бомбардировщиков США, которые являются носителями ядерного оружия, было бы крайне опрометчивым шагом с точки зрения интересов национальной безопасности Российской Федерации. Эта проблема могла бы быть решена даже проще, чем выработка каких-то совместных договоренностей о «военной сдержанности». Боевым кораблям и самолетам НАТО нужно как можно реже появляться в этом регионе. Это не Мексиканский залив.

Пропагандистская машина Запада всегда поднимает волну возмущения по поводу военных учений Российских Вооруженных сил на западном направлении. Излюбленный конек НАТО. Хотя сам альянс за последние годы в два раза увеличил их количество: до 250-300 учений в год. Где около половины из них имеют антироссийскую направленность. Но когда примерно год назад Россия передала штаб-квартире этого блока предложение отодвинуть зону учений сторон от линии их соприкосновения на согласованную глубину, то государства-члены альянса вновь не захотели обсуждать и эту проблематику.

В этих условиях российская сторона сделала единственный правильный вывод о том, что в планы этого военного блока не входит разработка и осуществление совместных мер по укреплению доверия и безопасности в зоне Балтики.  И не будет входить.

Тогда возникает естественный вопрос: зачем будировать все эти проблемы, по которым у НАТО вообще нет никакого желания договариваться с Россией? Рассчитывать на то, что Россия пойдет на какие-то односторонние шаги и уступки только потому, что так хочется кому-то в альянсе? Но это же бесполезное занятие. Равно как и бесперспективное в будущем.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: InfoБалтика

НКО США говорят: «Нет!» агрессии Киева против Донбасса

6 февраля принял участие в вебинаре «Нет войне с Россией», организованном группой американских антивоенных организаций, симпатизирующих Российской Федерации. В дискуссии приняли участие руководители «Альянса темнокожих граждан за мир», «Глобальной сети против размещения оружия и ядерных сил в космосе», «Объединенной национальной коалиции против войны», а также украинского «Союза политических эмигрантов и заключенных Украины». В вебинаре зарегистрировалось свыше 700 человек из многих стран мира.

По сообщению представителя одной из обозначенных НКО, в феврале этого года в Соединенных Штатах прошли антивоенные демонстрации и митинги. Они состоялись в 70 городах на территории 46 штатов страны из пятидесяти существующих, в том числе напротив Белого дома в Вашингтоне.

На указанную дату около 900 американцев подписали петицию, адресованную лично президенту Джозефу Байдену, в которой было заявлено о недопустимости начала войны с Россией.

В проведенных общественно-политических акциях прозвучали лозунги против развязывания войны с Россией, требование о прекращении дальнейшего расширения НАТО и поставок вооружений на Украину и в государства Европейского союза, призывы к соблюдению международного права и Устава ООН, недопущении агрессии против народа Донбасса мирными средствами, в том числе путем принятия соответствующего решения Совета Безопасности этой международной организации. Содержался призыв принять реальные меры, ведущие к предотвращению развязывания ядерной войны.

Подверглись сомнению распространенные в западных СМИ сведения о том, что Россия сконцентрировала на границе с Украиной до 100 тысяч человек военнослужащих. Заявлялось, что сколько бы их ни было на самом деле, они в любом случае не представляют собой группировку для нападения, а являются силами для обороны. Одновременно американские участники обмена мнениями назвали количество украинских вооруженных сил, направленных к зоне разъединения с Донбассом, которую сообщил 27 января этого года в Вене постоянный представитель России при ОБСЕ Александр Лукашевич (150 тысяч человек).

В выступлениях американских участников вебинара содержалось напоминание о том, что руководители США и ФРГ давали Советскому Союзу обещание не расширять членский состав НАТО после объединения двух частей Германии.

Отмечалось, что нынешняя ситуация в Восточной Европе является весьма опасной и что за готовящейся агрессией Киева против Донбасса стоят Соединенные Штаты и другие страны НАТО.

Подобные антивоенные акции на территории США будут продолжены.

Со своей стороны дал оценку ситуации вокруг Донбасса, у зоны разъединения которого сосредоточились значительные вооруженные соединения и части ВСУ, оснащенные тяжелыми видами вооружений и продолжающие нарушать договоренности о прекращении огня. Только 5 февраля, по данным ОБСЕ, украинские вооруженные силы нарушили такие соглашения в ДНР – 85 раз и в ЛНР – 73 раза.

Обрисовал реальные цели военной политики США и Украины против Донбасса.

Особо выделил, что деэскалацией напряженности в названном регионе должны заниматься именно авторы и спонсоры ее эскалации, то есть Киев и Вашингтон. Украина должна прекратить получать военную помощь от США и НАТО, отменить собственный генеральный план вооруженного  наступления на Донбасс и выполнять в полном объеме Минские соглашения, а Соединенные Штаты должны прекратить поставки смертоносных видов вооружений киевскому режиму, отозвать своих инструкторов и советников из ВСУ, а также отказаться от направления своих вооруженных сил и вооружений в государства Северной, Восточной и Южной Европы, в том числе прекратить операцию ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», в которой задействованы самолеты «двойного назначения».

Ответил на вопрос об особенностях воссоединения Крыма с Россией в 2014 году.

Автор: В.П. Козин – член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН

 

Назван наиболее вероятный театр военных действий НАТО

 

Восточная Европа воспринимается Североатлантическим альянсом как наиболее вероятный театр военных действий, что подтверждается учениями НАТО, заявил секретарь Совбеза РФ Николай Патрушев.

«Очевидно, что НАТО рассматривает Восточно-Европейский регион как наиболее вероятный театр военных действий», - заметил Патрушев.

Военный эксперт Владимир Козин подтвердил, что по инициативе Североатлантического альянса Восточная Европа действительно может стать местом ведения боевых действий.

Источник: Дума ТВ

 

Наращивание вооруженных сил США и НАТО близ рубежей России

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "Пятая студия" на канале "Россия 24".


В.П. Козин: "Большую угрозу представляет для нас ракетное-ядерное оружие и комбинированные противоракетные системы США, в которые могут загружаться ударные виды вооружений. Плюс авиация стратегического назначения, которая уже давно освоила европейский континент. Такие самолеты сертифицированы под доставку как стратегических, так и тактических видов вооружений. Союзники США по НАТО представили для них 19 своих военных аэродромов".


Эфир от 21 декабря 2021г.

Не Россия, а Литва – террористическое государство, поощряющее неонацизм и геноцид

10 мая Сейм Литвы единогласно принял резолюцию, в которой признал Россию «государством, поддерживающим и осуществляющим терроризм».

В ходе слушаний данное решение было обосновано проведением Россией специальной военной операции на территории Украины. В качестве аргументов приводились сфабрикованные выводы о событиях в ряде мест на украинской территории, которые контролировались ВСУ. Проводя параллели сравнения спецоперации на Украине с «геноцидом украинского народа», депутаты выступили за создание по аналогии с Нюрнбергским или Токийским трибуналами, специального международного военного трибунала для «расследования и оценки российских военных преступлений». Слушание в Сейме завершилось призывом к другим европейским странам последовать примеру Литвы.

Необходимость включения России в список стран-спонсоров терроризма навязывается Вашингтоном практически с самого начала военных действий на Украине. Включение в данный список России вынудит Европу окончательно разрушить торгово-экономические связи с ней, что неизбежно отразится на и без того подорванных европейских экономиках. Литва несомненно ожидает дивидендов от трансатлантического альянса за принятую резолюцию. Данный демарш Риги призван обосновать собственному населению необходимость расквартирования многотысячного контингента вооруженных НАТО у восточных границ на постоянной основе.

13 мая главы МИД Литвы, Латвии и Эстонии выступили с совместным требованием об увеличении присутствия вооруженного контингента НАТО в странах Балтии. Прибалтийские государства призывают руководство альянса нарастить численность многонациональных сил блока на их территориях практически в пять раз – с одной до пяти тысяч человек.

Литва реально является государством, проводящим политику государственного терроризма и пособника агрессии Киева против Донбасса.

 Следует напомнить, что на литовской территории проводились учебные бомбометания с использованием тяжелых стратегических бомбардировщиков США. На литовской авиабазе «Зокняй» под Шауляем в рамках проводимой с 2004 года операции ВВС трансатлантического военного блока под названием «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» размещаются истребители-бомбардировщики двойного назначения ряда стран Североатлантического союза, то есть такие, которые способны нести как неядерные, так и ядерные виды вооружений. Неужели не ясно, против кого могут быть использованы эти силы?

Кроме того, звучат призывы к преобразованию названной операции в полноценную противовоздушную оборону региона. Глава МИД Литвы Габриелюс Ландсбергис напомнил Североатлантическому альянсу о долге по обеспечению «четкого консенсуса в отношении того, что каждый дюйм территории НАТО будет защищен». Он также отметил, что «вступление двух новых стран в военный блок придаст надежности с политической точки зрения и с позиции безопасности», а действия Швеции и Финляндии являются «очень четким посланием о том, что северная часть Европы – территория НАТО».

Известно, что литовские наемники принимали участие в боевых действиях на Северном Кавказе. Принимают они аналогичное участие и сейчас, когда Киев начал третью по счету агрессивную войну против народа Донбасса, который не пожелал жить в неонацистском украинском государстве. Прибалтийские инструкторы с 2014 года осуществляют подготовку нацбатов на территории Украины, активно культивируя среди их членов неонацистские убеждения. Вильнюс уже давно поставляет автоматическое стрелковое оружие Киеву, которое убивает людей.

Варварским является решение Вильнюса закрыть свое воздушное пространство для транзита гражданских воздушных судов, следующих по маршруту Москва-Калининград-Москва. Теперь пассажиры таких рейсов, следующие из Москвы в столицу Калининградской области и обратно, должны лететь до Усть-Луги в Ленинградской области, а затем делать разворот примерно на 180 градусов, чтобы попасть либо в Калининград, либо из него в Москву.

О реакции в России

Резолюция литовского Сейма, даже в случае ее закрепления в национальном законодательстве, не будет иметь для России никаких юридических или политических последствий.

Но, с другой стороны, она может рассматриваться достаточным основанием для повышения расходов европейских экономик на содержание дополнительных воинских контингентов НАТО на их территории, а также повышение военных расходов. Необходимо отметить, что основное бремя таких расходов будет возложено на население всей Европы, а не только государств Балтии, которая является дотационным регионом.

В Государственной Думе Российской Федерации начато обсуждение оснований, позволяющих отнести Литву, а также Латвию и Эстонию к категории «пособников нацизма». Но этого явно недостаточно. Вполне можно объявить эту тройку и «пособниками украинской агрессии» против Донбасса. 

Имеются все основания для принятия такого решения. Составы преступлений, тщательно проработанные в ходе упомянутого Сеймом Нюрнбергского военного трибунала, в названных государствах Балтии не только не скрываются, а напротив, восхваляются и являются предметом их национальной гордости. При голосовании за резолюцию Генеральной ассамблеи ООН «О борьбе с героизацией нацизма», которую поддержали 133 государства, упомянутая «тройка» ожидаемо воздержалась.

Более 20 лет эти три государства последовательно осуществляют дискредитацию советского строя, при котором они пользовались особыми привилегиями, а также реабилитацию местных коллаборационистов, которые сотрудничали с гитлеровской Германией, служили в дивизиях СС и создаваемых по собственной инициативе «зондер-командах», лично принимали участие в «Холокосте». Литовские власти внедряют в массы государственную идеологию, показателем которой является героизация «лесных братьев», чудовищные преступления которых хорошо задокументированы, доказаны и не имеют срока давности за совершенные ими преступления. Сейчас уже практически в каждом литовском городе есть объекты, которые носят имена пособников нацизма.

Латвией, Литвой и Эстонией внедряются нарративы развития неонацизма, организуются мероприятия по чествованию памяти местных «героев-нацистов» и, напротив, по очернению советских воинов-освободителей. На законодательном уровне закреплено кощунственное уравнивание в правах тех, кто воевал против нацистской Германии с защищавшими фашистов. Поощряются акты вандализма по отношению к памятникам советским воинам.

МИД России назвал решение литовского парламента «экстремистским и лицемерным» и по этой причине к нему нужно относиться как к провокации. «Данное решение не имеет никакого отношения к желанию урегулировать чрезвычайную ситуацию, которая сложилась на Украине», подчеркнули в российском внешнеполитическом ведомстве.

Первый заместитель председателя комитета Госдумы по делам СНГ, евразийской интеграции и связям с соотечественниками Виктор Водолацкий заявил, что такие страны как Латвия, Литва, Эстония и Польша, всеми силами пытаются доказать свою состоятельность и принимают такие решения, которые, по их мнению, демонстрируют «крутость» и самостоятельность. Это люди, забывшие свою историю, которые не помнят, что Россия всегда боролась с терроризмом. Они видят, что антироссийские санкции не работают, а бумеранг последствий прилетает к ним.

«На самом деле речь идет о провоцирующем поведении Литвы в отношении России в условиях, когда в северобалтийском регионе и так напряженная обстановка, в первую очередь связанная с подачей Финляндией и Швецией заявок на вступление в НАТО», прокомментировал литовские действия заведующий Отделом европейской безопасности Института Европы РАН Дмитрий Данилов.

Литва – активный участник соревнований за признание коллективным Западом их страны одним из наиболее антироссийских государств. Ввиду того, что введенные против Российской Федерации свыше 10 тысяч санкций не дали ожидаемого результата, Вильнюс решил пойти дальше предложений по введению новых санкций. На фоне обсуждений в США вопроса о включении России в список стран-спонсоров терроризма, несомненно, что Литва также ожидает дивидендов от поспешно принятой Сеймом резолюции.

В случае же принятия решения Российской Федерацией об отнесении Литвы к категории «страны-пособника нацизма» его последствия будут весьма неблагоприятны для Вильнюса, от экономических санкций до разрыва политических и культурных связей. Только прекращение транзита казахской нефти через Российскую Федерацию и Республику Белоруссия в Клайпедский морской торговый порт лишит Литву около 10 процентов и без того дефицитного бюджета. С учетом того, что по данным переписи населения 2021 года до одной пятой населения государств Балтии являются этническими русскими, а более трети прибалтов имеют тесные связи с Россией, разрыв отношений вызовет волну протестных настроений в обществе упомянутой «тройки».

Но все эти и возможные другие негативные последствия для них будут являться именно их сознательным выбором, а не выбором Российской Федерации.

Автор: В.П. Козин – член-корреспондент РАВН

 

Неадекватная реакция Запада

География перманентной военной конфронтации НАТО расширяется по всем векторам европейского континента

Уже на следующий день после получения российских предложений, а именно 16 декабря этого года, в НАТО сделали поспешное заявление, которое свидетельствует о том, что в штаб-квартире альянса будут затягивать решение вопроса о гарантиях безопасности. Предлоги и ранее хорошо известные. Есть, мол, некие «озабоченности» в отношении России, раскрыть которые там не отважились, а также ряд её «действий», которые также не были идентифицированы.

Странно, что в этом документе предлагается обсудить названную тему на заседании Совета Россия-НАТО, деятельность которого была заблокирована самим альянсом, в том числе путём высылки практически всех сотрудников Постоянного представительства России при нём. С кем беседовать-то? Заявлялось о важности проведения консультаций с европейскими союзниками по блоку, но без ограничений по срокам, а также о необходимости предварительного принятия Россией мер «по снижению напряжённости», к чему Москва никогда не была причастна. В штаб-квартире военного союза вновь напомнили, что принятие новых государств в его состав является его внутренним делом.

Таким образом, штаб-квартира НАТО в бельгийской столице первой задала деструктивный тон в ответ на предложения России по гарантиям безопасности.

В тот же день генеральный секретарь альянса Йенс Столтенберг дополнительно разъяснил на пресс-конференции, что новая стратегическая концепция блока, которая будет утверждена на его следующем саммите в испанской столице летом 2022 года, подтвердит важность таких партнёров альянса, как Украина, и их право на вступление в него в качестве полноправных членов. «Мы сейчас готовим новую стратегическую концепцию. Я надеюсь, что в этой новой стратегии будет отражена важность таких ценных партнёров, как Украина, а также право третьих стран выбирать свой путь», - сообщил он.

Вторя ему, о неизменности линии Киева на скорейшее вступление в НАТО поведал и украинский президент, дополнительно поставивший вопрос о получении новых партий смертоносных вооружений из государств блока. Это говорит о том, что резко теряющий авторитет нынешний украинский «лидер», которого поддерживает всего-то около 14 процентов опрошенных граждан страны, явно утратил чувство реальности и меры.

Направил свои первые сигналы-сомнения о целесообразности пакетного рассмотрения поставленных Россией вопросов, имеющих прямое отношение к гарантиям безопасности, и Вашингтон. Там заявили о том, что он будет готов обсудить с Москвой только то, что представляет для него определённый интерес. При этом добавили: на другие российские предложения будут выдвинуты собственные предложения.

Представляется, что все они будут надуманными и несостоятельными. Так бывало и раньше. Главная цель их выдвижения сейчас будет заключаться в желании уйти от дискуссии на тему представления гарантий безопасности России, а также «выдавливание» российских вооружённых сил из отдельных районов её же национальной территории.

Не исключено, что при ведении переговоров по представлению гарантий безопасности России Вашингтон и штаб-квартира НАТО в Брюсселе поставят вопрос об аналогичных гарантиях Соединённым Штатам и альянсу в целом, но в иной плоскости. Например, предложат российской стороне сократить в каком-то объёме некоторые новейшие виды российских вооружений, которых нет ни у кого из союзников по этому военному альянсу.

Необходимо решительно и бескомпромиссно исключить такую возможность. Гиперзвуковой блок «Авангард», в также ракеты «Кинжал», «Циркон» и другие перспективные российские системы не входят в какой-либо российско-американский договор по ограничению или сокращению вооружений. Россия должна твёрдо отстаивать данную позицию.

В своё время Советский Союз в инициативном порядке уничтожил свою перспективную оперативно-тактическую ракету «Ока», которая вообще не подпадала под сокращения советско-американского Договора о ликвидации РСМД 1987 года, а также односторонне демонтировал Красноярскую РЛС стратегического назначения, которая входила в реестр наиболее важных общенациональных средств раннего предупреждения о ракетном нападении. Такие непродуманные акции тогдашнего советского руководства являются серьёзным укором и печальным напоминанием тем, кто принимал необоснованные решения об их уничтожении.

Ничего подобного американцы тогда у себя не уничтожали.

Следует повременить засчитывать перспективную российскую МБР «Сармат» в список стратегических наступательных вооружений по Договору СНВ-3 до тех пор, пока не закончатся её испытания, не начнётся её массовое производство и она не поступит на вооружение.

В данном контексте надо напомнить, что американская сторона, работающая над созданием принципиально новой ядерной триады СНВ в виде МБР, БРПЛ и тяжёлых бомбардировщиков стратегического назначения, а также новых гиперзвуковых систем, не предлагает Москве ничего из этого списка в качестве предмета собственных будущих сокращений, а также не засчитывает их в арсеналах ядерных вооружений, подпадающих под положения Договора СНВ-3.

С американской стороны в неофициальном порядке прозвучало и предложение провести закрытые российско-американские переговоры по гарантиям безопасности. Почему в таком формате? Явно боятся гласности и открытости. Именно в том, что касается вопросов укрепления европейской безопасности на основе широкого списка конкретных и понятных даже неспециалистам принципов. Но России в этом вопросе от мирового сообщества скрывать нечего.

К сожалению, на этом фоне постепенно усиливаются голоса в пользу отказа от российской инициативы о гарантиях безопасности со стороны и других государств-участников этого военного блока, даже от не входящих в него нейтральных стран, а также в лице руководства Европейского союза.

В грубой форме отреагировала на предложенные Россией инициативы, направленные на деэскалацию военной активности альянса у российской территории, 56-летняя Кристина Ламбрехт, министр обороны ФРГ, похоже, мало что понимающая в военных вопросах стратегического значения (прежде она возглавляла министерство юстиции, а также ведомство по делам семьи, пожилых граждан, женщин и молодёжи).

Весьма странным представляется её заявление, что у России нет никакого права указывать партнёрам НАТО, как следует себя вести. Странным это выглядит потому, что в двух проектах российских документов по гарантиям безопасности вообще нет никаких положений, которые содержали бы какие-то требования к альянсу или на что-то «указывали» ему. В этих проектах везде записано, что будущие участники потенциальных договорённостей принимают на себя именно взаимные обязательства. Видимо, новоявленная глава оборонного ведомства просто не читала тексты названных документов. Жаль.

С другой стороны, смех в России вызвало её пожелание, чтобы в рамках новых антироссийских санкций именно французское руководство запретило отдельным высокопоставленным российским гражданам делать покупки в парижских магазинах (?). Интересно, что на это ответит фрау Ламбрехт президент Франции месье Эммануэль Макрон?

Главы министерств обороны Дании, Исландии, Латвии, Литвы, Эстонии, Норвегии, Швеции и Финляндии выступили с заявлениями о неприемлемости выдвинутых Россией требований, которые, как отчётливо видно, резко снижают уровень военной напряжённости в Европе, а также создают новую основу для её превращения в континент стабильности и равной безопасности для всех государств.

Что касается первой группы из шести названных стран-членов альянса, то их реакция представляется понятной, хотя и непрофессиональной. Они действуют в духе уже упоминавшегося негативного декабрьского заявления Североатлантического альянса. Естественно.

Но при чём здесь Швеция и Финляндия, которые пока остаются формально нейтральными? Или они спят и видят, как поскорее стать членами альянса «трансатлантической солидарности»? Как страны, которые уже давно предоставили свою территорию под обкатку военно-технических новинок Североатлантического союза. А Финляндия, которую бывшее руководство НАТО называло «привилегированным партнёром» альянса, даже приняла решение о закупке 64 новейших американских истребителей-бомбардировщиков F-35А, которые могут нести ядерное оружие. И это у наших рубежей? В своё время финский президент Саули Нийнистё предлагал нам, чтобы российские военные самолёты включали свои транспондеры - системы определения их национальной принадлежности «свой-чужой» - при полётах над Балтийским морем. Мы пошли на это, но в НАТО отказались. А что: вопрос включения или выключения транспондеров важнее проблемы размещения самолётов-носителей ядерного оружия у нашего порога?

В Стокгольме и Хельсинки явно не понимают, в какую авантюру их втягивают Вашингтон и штаб-квартира альянса в Брюсселе.

Далее. Глава дипломатии Европейского союза Жозеп Боррель безосновательно заподозрил Россию в желании исключить европейские страны из переговоров по укреплению европейской безопасности, но выразил надежду, что в Вашингтоне этого не допустят. Видимо, исходя из этого умозрительного предположения он высказался за то, чтобы эта структура, в которую одновременно входят значительное количество государств-членов НАТО, также стала участницей дискуссий по новой архитектуре европейской безопасности. А кто против этого? Россия не против и более решительной роли ОБСЕ на этом направлении.

А тем временем? А тем временем география перманентной военной конфронтации со стороны США и Североатлантического союза расширяется по всем векторам европейского континента в российском направлении.

Уже раздался голос Верховного главнокомандующего Объединёнными вооружёнными силами НАТО в Европе американского генерала Тода Уолтерса с предложением расширить присутствие альянса в Болгарии и Румынии. То есть сделать точно так же, как ранее это было осуществлено в Польше и государствах Балтии в рамках натовской стратегии «Усиленное передовое присутствие» вооружённых сил этого военного блока на его восточном и южном флангах поближе к России.

С учётом всего того, что было изложенного ранее, напрашивается только один вывод: выдвижение предложений Москвы по гарантиям безопасности является единственно правильным и своевременным.

Вполне очевидно и то, что в случае отказа Соединённых Штатов и остальных государств-членов НАТО рассмотреть подобные инициативы на конструктивной основе решение Российской Федерации будет также единственно вынужденным и адекватным растущей смертельной военной угрозе в её адрес с их стороны.

Автор: В.П. Козин. Источник: Еженедельник “Звезда”

 

Неблаговидная игра США с ДРСМД

Она создаёт новые риски для глобальной стабильности и международной безопасности

США целенаправленно следует курсом на подрыв всей системы контроля над вооружениями. Очередным подтверждением тому  стал по сути ультиматум, оглашённый на днях госсекретарем США Майком Помпео, который  пригрозил, что если в течение двух месяцев Москва не станет выполнять Договор о ракетах средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД), то Вашингтон прекратит придерживаться его обязательств.

С одной стороны, этот ультиматум-уведомление является странным, так как статья XV договора предписывает, что любой его участник, решивший выйти из него, должен уведомить другую договаривающуюся сторону «за шесть месяцев» до такого фактического выхода. С другой — следует особо отметить, что в течение уже нескольких лет Вашингтон планомерно напирает на «несоблюдение» ДРСМД российской стороной, не представив Москве и своим союзникам по трансатлантическому альянсу никаких убедительных доказательств тому.

При этом американцы  сначала с помощью этого бессрочного договора пытались необоснованно добиться от Москвы снятия с вооружения оперативно-тактической ракеты «Р-500» и двух МБР «Тополь-М» и «Рубеж», которые никак не подпадали под пространственные ограничения этого договора. В последнее время в Вашингтоне стали выдвигать аналогичные требования и к новейшей российской разработке – ракетному комплексу «Авангард» с ракетой, оснащенной планирующим крылатым блоком, а также к крылатой ракете под индексом 9М729, которые также не могут быть ограничены  указанным договором.

Отвергая все обвинения Вашингтона в несоблюдении ею ДРСМД, Россия одновременно предъявляет американской стороны обоснованные претензии по поводу его реального нарушения. В изданной на английском языке в начале этого года в России Белой книге «Перспективы Договора о ликвидации РСМД 1987 года» впервые была названа цифра таких нарушений американской стороной — 92. К настоящему же времени общее количество подобных нарушений американской стороной уже достигло 95.

Они связаны с регулярно проводимыми Пентагоном  испытаниями ударных ракет-перехватчиков стратегической системы ПРО, в ходе которых в качестве ракет-мишеней используются по меньшей мере четыре типа баллистических и крылатых ракет средней и меньшей дальности, запрещенных ДРСМД. Последнее испытание из этой серии  проведено в Тихом океане 26 октября этого года, когда средствами ПРО ВМС США была успешно перехвачена ракета средней дальности. Все данные на этот счёт приведены в открытых для всеобщего обозрения пресс-релизах американского Управления по ПРО – штатной структуре военного ведомства.

К настоящему же времени общее количество нарушений американской стороной Договора о РСМД уже достигло 95.

Американская сторона тем временем продолжает упорно вводить в заблуждение своих союзников по Североатлантическому союзу, да и все мировое сообщество. И параллельно ведёт дело к уничтожению ДРСМД, но всю вину за это пытается свалить на Россию.

Одновременно Вашингтон, похоже, хочет разорвать с Москвой и другое соглашение – Договор о стратегических наступательных вооружениях (СНВ-3), срок действия которого заканчивается в феврале 2021 года. Как известно, президент США Дональд Трампа неоднократно заявлял, что этот договор мешает Соединённым Штатам модернизировать стратегические наступательные ядерные вооружения и создавать им  новую стратегическую ядерную триаду. Поддерживая президента, сенатор-республиканец Том Коттон и конгрессмен от республиканской партии Лиз Чейни внесли законопроект, запрещающий продление США  Договора СНВ-3 до тех пор, пока Россия не подведёт под его действие свое новейшее ядерное оружие. «Этот законопроект препятствует финансированию продления нового Договора СНВ до тех пор, пока президент не подтвердит конгрессу, что Россия согласилась на контролируемое сокращение своих запасов тактического ядерного оружия и включение своих новых систем в рамки нового договора СНВ»,  — гласит совместное заявление авторов законопроекта.

Но с другой стороны, дифирамбы в адрес ДСНВ-3 недавно пропела официальный представитель государственного департамента Хизер Науэрт, которая отметила, что этот договор делает отношения с Россией более стабильными, а также улучшает безопасность США и их союзников. Таким образом, в подходах американской стороны видны противоречия и к этому договорному акту, определившему потолки по 1550 ядерных боезарядов и по 800 оперативно развёрнутых и оперативно неразвёрнутых носителей стратегического назначения для каждой стороны.

Между тем Россия отмечает, что американская сторона на протяжении последних двух лет осуществляла переоборудование части своих стратегических наступательных ядерных средств (по 4 пусковые установки на каждой из 14 ПЛАРБ проекта «Огайо» и 41 тяжёлых бомбардировщика «В-52Н») и в одностороннем порядке исключила их из учёта по Договору СНВ-3. Это дает ей возможность в кратчайшие сроки нарастить потенциал своих стратегических наступательных сил и увеличить количество боезарядов более чем на 1200 единиц.

Вместе с тем наша страна не исключает возможности обсуждения условий для продления Договора СНВ-3 ещё на пять лет, то есть до 2026 года. Именно «условий для продления», а не автоматическое продление самого договора, да ещё любой ценой. Представляется, что принятие такого решения будет зависеть не только от полного и скрупулезного выполнения Вашингтоном ДРСМД.

С учётом признаваемой Вашингтоном органической взаимосвязи между стратегическими наступательными ядерными вооружениями и стратегическими оборонительными системами, а также принимая во внимание некоторые  аспекты деятельности США и НАТО, оказывающих непосредственное воздействие на глобальную стабильность и международную безопасность, вряд ли будет правильным игнорировать в данном контексте и другие объективные факторы. Это прежде всего размещение средств передового базирования США и их союзников по НАТО у рубежей Российской Федерации в виде американских баз ПРО и складов с тактическим ядерным оружием; появление новых авиационных средств его доставки, наращивание сил общего назначения с тяжёлыми видами вооружений, а также неуклонное движение Пентагона к размещению ударных вооружений в космическом пространстве. Немаловажно заметить, что всё это нанизывается на действующую американскую ядерную стратегию, предусматривающую нанесение первого ядерного удара в целом ряде случаев.

Естественно, наша страна не может не учитывать манипуляции Соединённых Штатов с соглашениями, которые лежат в основе существующей системы контроля над вооружениями.  А они  проявляют негативное отношение в общей сложности  к двенадцати международным договорам и соглашениям в этой сфере  — разрывают  и нарушают их, отказываются от ратификации  и  рассмотрения.

Совершенно очевидно, что выход США из ДРСМД  приведёт к подрыву глобальной стратегической стабильности  и в первую очередь создаст новые риски для мира в Европе. Предупреждая об этом Вашингтон и всё мировое сообщество, Москва также подчёркивает, что на все действия США в этом направлении даст  зеркальный ответ.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: “Красная звезда”

Недавняя операция ВСУ – предвестник контрнаступления большего масштаба

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “ОТРажение” на канале ОТР

Участники обсуждают поражение вооруженных формирований Украины на Донецком направлении и другие новости специальной военной операции.

Эфир от 5 июня 2023г.

 

Непрост путь к безъядерному миру

Участники международной конференции, завершившей свою работу в штаб-квартире ООН 7 июля 2017 года, согласовали текст международной конвенции (договора) о полном запрете ядерного оружия. Документ был принят большинством голосов по итогам нескольких недель переговоров, в которых не участвовали все девять юридических и фактических ядерных государств (122 государства выступили в его поддержку, одно государство проголосовало «против» и одно «воздержалось»).

Российская Федерация в целом поддерживает концепцию создания безъядерного мира, никогда не уходила и не будет уходить от предметного разговора о «глобальном ядерном нуле». Хотя Россия считала состоявшиеся дискуссии в целом полезными, но она не принимала в них участия, полагая, что поставленная перед ее участниками задача не является актуальной в нынешних условиях, поскольку в настоящее время ядерное оружие является одной из опор обеспечения глобальной стратегической стабильности. Москва также убеждена, что процесс ядерного разоружения может быть только поэтапным и всеобъемлющем, открытым и контролируемым, поскольку именно такие принципы заложены в решениях обзорной конференции по выполнению Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия или логически вытекают из них.

Кроме того, Россия обращает внимание на необходимость учета всех факторов, которые могут оказывать влияние на содержательную часть названной конвенции. Невозможно двигаться к безъядерному миру, если другие государства, имеющие ядерное оружие, официально не признают его наличие в собственных вооруженных силах (Израиль), если не все государства ратифицировали Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний (например, одно из наиболее мощных ядерных государств мира – США), если вне переговорного процесса по ядерному разоружению остается такой вид ядерного оружия как тактическое.

Вполне естественно, что пока ядерное оружие останется у других государств мира, Российская Федерация будет иметь полное право сохранять его в своих арсеналах.

Решение о проведении переговоров по выработке проекта международной конвенции (договора) о полном запрете ядерного оружия было принято на основе нескольких резолюций Генеральной Ассамблеей ООН, одобренных в 2012-2016 годы по вопросу о продвижении процесса многосторонних переговоров по ядерному разоружению в целях построения и сохранения мира, свободного от ядерного оружия.

Рассмотрение вопроса было инициировано и поддержано большой группой стран, не входящих в военные союзы и не имеющих собственного ядерного оружия. Сюда также вошла большая группа государств, территория которых была ранее объявлена безъядерной зоной в рамках международных договоренностей. В частности, в число сторонников решения проблемы вошли государства-члены Африканской группы (54 государства), АСЕАН (10 государств), Сообщества государств Латинской Америки и Карибского бассейна (33 государства), а также ряд стран Азии, Тихого океана и Европы.

В рабочих группах, созданных для изучения проблемы и поиска путей ее решения, участвовали некоторые известные международные и национальные научно-исследовательские и некоммерческие общественные организации, например, МККК, ЮНИДИР, СИПРИ, Институт международного права и политики, Международное партнерство в целях контроля за ядерным разоружением, Комиссия по уменьшению ядерной опасности, Британско-американский совет по информации в сфере безопасности, Институт «Акроним» по разоруженческой дипломатии и другие.

В процессе дискуссий многие из названных государств высказывались в поддержку всеобъемлющей конвенции по ядерному оружию, в которой были бы изложены общие обязательства, запреты и практические меры по достижению увязанного с конкретными сроками, необратимого и поддающегося проверке ядерного разоружения. Эти государства выражали мнение о том, что процесс переговоров относительно такой конвенции и их успешное завершение должны предполагать выработку поэтапной программы полной ликвидации ядерного оружия в конкретно установленные сроки.

Конвенция будет открыта для подписания 20 сентября 2017 года и вступит в силу спустя 90 дней после того, как ее ратифицируют первые 50 стран.

Государства-участники этого договорного акта обязуются «никогда и ни при каких обстоятельствах не разрабатывать, не испытывать, не производить, не изготавливать, не приобретать иным образом, не иметь во владении и не накапливать ядерное оружие или другие ядерные взрывные устройства», а также применять и/или угрожать их применением. Странам, присоединившимся к конвенции, будет запрещено размещать на своей территории ядерное оружие, принадлежащее другим государствам.

Проект конвенции дополняет две другие международные конвенции о запрещении двух «классических» видов ОМУ: химического и биологического (бактериологического) оружия.

Вместе с тем, путь к созданию мира, полностью свободного от ядерного оружия, обещает быть долгим и не простым из-за глубоких разногласий, которые по-прежнему имеются как среди государств, имеющих ядерное оружие, так и стран, которые вступают за его полное уничтожение. Такие разногласия в основном касаются способов и темпов достижения обозначенной цели.

Кроме того, процесс выхода на «глобальный безъядерный нуль» будут сдерживать военно-политические доктрины «безусловного наступательного ядерного сдерживания» (США), размещение американского ядерного оружия на территории пяти иностранных государств, а также то обстоятельство, что из девяти ядерных государств только две страны (СССР/Россия и США) вели переговоры о сокращении отдельных видов ядерных вооружений и лишь частично сокращали их (стратегические наступательные ядерные вооружения и ракетно-ядерные системы средней и меньшей дальности).

Автор: Козин В.П., член-корреспондент РАЕН, профессор РАВН, член Экспертной группы при Комитете по международным делам Совета Федерации Российской Федерации

Нова руска војна доктрина: Одговор на агресију или поштеда неутралних земаља

Усвајање нове руске војне доктрине, која би подразумевала да неутралне земље буду изузете из војних планова Русије, могло би позитивно да утиче на однос међународне заједнице према Москви, будући да је, на крају крајева, свака земља дужна самостално гради и осигурава своју одбрамбену моћ, сматрају аналитичари.

Измену актуелне војне предложио је председник Комитета Савета федерације за међународне односе Константин Косачов, који сматра да би то могло позитивно да се одрази пре свега на државе које не припадају никаквом војном блоку, и то као мотивација да не ступају у НАТО.

Као пример Косачов је навео Шведску – сваки грађанин те земље зна да се не налази на мети руских ракета јер живи у неутралној земљи, али истовремено му је јасно и шта би се могло десити у случају да та земља приступи Алијанси.

Стручњак из Центра за војнополитичке студије Московског државног универзитета за међународне односе Владимир Козин каже да је уобичајена пракса да се војне доктрине мењају на сваких пет година у просеку, као и да на те измене не утиче руководство једне земље, већ актуелна војно-политичка ситуација у свету.

У случају Русије, како објашњава, постоји и други фактор, а то је када се против ње предузимају значајне војне акције – отуда и иницијатива за усвајање нове доктрине. Поред тога, као један од разлога за измену војне доктрине представља и најава Америке да ће напустити Споразум о ликвидацији ракета малог и кратког домета, јер би тиме земље које су неутралне могле да постану територије где би Америка постављала своја нуклеарна средства.

Постоје, наиме, чланице НАТО-а које немају сопствено нуклеарно оружје, али имају на својој територији америчка нуклеарна средства. Ту се пре свега мисли на земље као што су Холандија, Белгија, Италија и Немачка, те оне спадају у групу држава на коју Русија обраћа посебну пажњу. Али поред те четири земље, као и азијског дела Турске, нико више на свету не поставља нуклеарно оружје по својој територији.

Међутим, како сугерише Козин, постоји опасност да након изласка Америке из Споразума о ракетама малог и средњег домета њено нуклеарно оружје буде постављено и на територијама земаља које не потпадају под окриље НАТО-а, а то су Јужна Кореја и Јапан, које се тренутно сматрају неутралним.

Упитан шта тачно значи бити војно неутрална земља, Козин каже да то подразумева да та одређена држава не припада ниједном војном блоку или савезу, али не и да та земља нема војне везе са неким другим државама, да од њих купује војну опрему, муницију и технику или има неки други вид сарадње.

Као пример правих неутралних земаља Козин наводи Швајцарску и Аустрију, али постоје и друге земље које су мало мање неутралне, а њих назива „ванблоковским“, а то су рецимо Украјина и Финска које, иако нису чланице НАТО-а, са Алијансом имају изузетно тесну везу.

„Са војним блоковима постоје политичке везе које не вуку са собом никакву другачију војнотехничку сарадњу, као што је рецимо организација војних вежби и томе слично. Међутим, оне земље које активно сарађују са, рецимо, НАТО-ом, као што је то случај са Украјином – та сарадња превазилази све политичке контакте, јер то значи да се широм њене територије размештају војне базе, довлачи се војна техника и људство, спроводе се најразличитије војне вежбе. Таква сарадња може се тумачити и као получланство. А то је управо случај са Украјином, баш као и са Финском“, истиче.

Козин додаје и да разговор на тему усвајања нове војне доктрине унутар руских војних и политичких кругова траје већ одавно, а поготову у сегменту примене нуклеарног оружја, односно у прављењу такозваног нуклеарног штита, који неће само штитити Русију, већ и њене савезнице које су уједно и чланице Организације уговора за колективну безбедност (ОДКБ).

Аутор: Милош Ћурчин,  Извор: Sputnik Србиjа

Новая космическая стратегия НАТО

 

НАТО опубликовало новую стратегию, в которой говорится о намерении «задействовать в космическом пространстве принципы коллективной обороны», включая 5 статью Вашингтонского договора о создании НАТО. Известно, что в соответствии с этой статьёй «нападение на одного члена альянса» расценивается, как «нападение на военно-политический блок в целом». Причем, объявлено об этом было 17 января 2022 года прямо в разгар переговорного процесса – жесткого и трудного, который начала Россия с США и НАТО. Члены НАТО договорились, что «атаки в направлении космоса, из космоса и в космическом пространстве представляют очевидный вызов для безопасности альянса».

Этот вызывающий ответ Запада на предложения России о взаимной безопасности в программе «Что происходит?» журнала «Международная жизнь» комментирует член-корреспондент Академии военных наук Владимир Козин.

Программу ведет обозреватель журнала Сергей Филатов.

Эфир от 26 января 2022г.

Новая монография В.П. Козина

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ ИМИ МГИМО, член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН В.П. Козин опубликовал новую монографию «Основные военные стратегии США: анализ и последствия их применения». Москва: Издательство им. Сабашниковых. 2023. 496 стр. ISBN: 978-5-82420-193-2.

В монографии рассматриваются шесть ключевых военно-политических стратегий США общенационального значения, принятых в период пребывания на посту президентов Дональда Трампа (2017-2021 гг.) и Джозефа Байдена (2021-2023 гг.), а именно: стратегия национальной безопасности, стратегия национальной обороны, ядерная стратегия, стратегия противоракетной обороны, военно-космическая стратегия. Дополнительно проанализирована и стратегия кибербезопасности.

В критическом плане дается их общая военно-политическая оценка и рассмотрены наиболее существенные положения, а также проанализирована материальная основа их реализации с точки зрения существующего и перспективного военно-технического потенциала и финансовых ресурсов, которые выделяются на реализацию названных стратегий в краткосрочной и долгосрочной перспективе.

Монография может быть использована правительственными и неправительственными экспертами, занимающимися вопросами контроля над вооружениями, а также теми, кто проявляет интерес к проблемам российско-американским отношений в военно-политической сфере.

Аналогичная монография опубликована на английском языке.

***

Vladimir P. Kozin, Leading Expert, Center for Military-Political Studies, Institute for International Studies, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), Corresponding Member, Russian Academy of Military Sciences and Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, has published a new monograph entitled: «U.S. Basic Military Strategies: Their Analysis and Practical Employment». Moscow: Sabashnikov’s Publishing House. 2023. 516 PP. ISBN: 978-5-82420-193-9.

The monograph examines six key U.S. political-military strategies of national importance adopted during the presidential terms of Donald Trump (2017-2021) and Joseph Biden (2021-2024), namely strategies related to national security, national defense, nuclear employment, missile defense, military-space and cybersecurity.

Their general political-military assessment is critically evaluated and the most significant provisions are highlighted. Material basis for their implementation is assessed in terms of existing and prospective military-technical capabilities and financial resources that are allocated for their implementation in the short and long term.

The monograph can be used by governmental and non-governmental experts involved in arms control issues, as well as by those who are interested in understanding the real problems existing in U.S.-Russian relations in the political-military sphere.

The same book has been published in Russian.

 

Новое издание о военной космической политике США

 

Козин Владимир Петрович: «В США разрабатываются 12 космических программ: шесть программ для создания ударных космических вооружений и шесть программ для функционального обеспечения их военно-космического потенциала».

Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимир Козин подготовил к изданию на английском языке монографию на тему «Военная космическая политика США: ключевые направления и будущие потенциалы» (280 стр.), которая должна выйти из печати в текущем году–начале следующего года.

В ней делается упор на создание новых Космических сил США (Space Force) которые будут созданы в 2020 финансовом году. Обращается внимание на особенности их боевого применения в будущем, проанализированы существующие и перспективные разведывательно-информационные и ударно-боевые потенциалы класса «космос-космос» и «космос-поверхность», которые составят основу таких сил. Пентагон планирует развернуть ударные компоненты ПРО в околоземном пространстве к 2030 году или раньше этого срока. Москва считает, что размещение американского оружия в космосе может быть направлено для нанесения превентивного ракетно-ядерного удара по России, Китаю или любому другому государству и уничтожения баллистических ракет на ранних стадиях полёта, а также для усиления потенциала вооруженных сил США в целом.

Проведенный анализ в критическом плане увязывается со стратегическими установками Соединенных Штатов, принятыми в период президентства Дональда Трампа, в особенности  с их Космической стратегией, одобренной в 2019 году. Она подтвердила стремление Вашингтона доминировать в космическом пространстве по сравнению с другими космическими государствами и готовность использовать его в качестве сферы ведения масштабных боевых операций не только оборонительного, но и наступательного характера. Отмечено, что главное кредо нынешней американской администрации в  использовании космоса в военных целях состоит в том, что США должна быть единственно доминирующей военной космической державой, даже не считаясь со своими союзниками по НАТО, которые в принципиальном плане уже договорились о взаимодействии в военном «освоении» космоса. В ближайшие годы Пентагон намерен усилить информационно-разведывательную составляющую США в космосе.

В настоящее время США работают над созданием следующих боевых систем для применения в космосе, который публично объявлен ими в качестве «пространства для ведения боевых операций»:

 Ударные космические вооружения с ударно-кинетическими характеристиками прямого физического воздействия путем соударения с целью уничтожения космических аппаратов: а) как находящимися в космосе с помощью противоспутниковых систем (ПСС) космического базирования, так и б) с помощью ПСС наземного, морского и воздушного базирования в виде высокоскоростных ракет-перехватчиков глобальной системы ПРО.

Противоспутниковые системы неударного действия для снятия космических аппаратов других государств с орбиты или резкого изменения их орбиты с враждебными целями.

Оружие космического и наземного базирования, основанное на иных физических принципах, не предполагающее прямого соударения с космическими аппаратами других государств, в том числе: а) боевые лазерные системы; б) микроволновые системы высокой мощности; в) оружие с использованием электромагнитных импульсов большой мощности; г) системы электронного противодействия, в том числе располагающие возможности глушения радиосигналов космических аппаратов других государств при работе на их же радиочастоте и/или замены их радиосигналов на свои искаженные радиосигналы с целью передачи ложных или искаженных сигналов на космических аппараты других государств без их физического уничтожения; такое электронное противодействие также возможно применять не только против космических аппаратов в космосе, но и против наземных станций контроля, осуществляющих контроль за их работой и управление ими.

Новое издание подробно описывает обстоятельства, связанные с испытаниями в интересах Пентагона беспилотной многофункциональной автономной космической платформы «Х-37-В» длительного и многоразового использования.

Пентагон завершает в космосе пятый по счету эксперимент с беспилотной многофункциональной космической платформой «Х-37В» многоразового использования, запущенный в сентябре 2017 года. Это аппарат уже побил рекорд нахождения на орбите своего предыдущего «собрата» (почти 718 суток). По мнению ряда экспертов, США намерены разместить в грузовом отсеке «Х-37В» противоспутниковые системы.

В книге показана негативная роль США и их дипломатии в подходе к решению проблемы немилитаризации космоса и достижению международной договоренности об отказе от размещения в нем первыми ударных космических вооружений любого вида. В общей сложности с начала  «космической эры» (1957 год) Вашингтон заблокировал 19 различных международных инициатив по немилитаризации космоса.

В 1979 году США прервали переговоры по противоспутниковым системам, которые вели с СССР с 1978 года, и до сих не проявляют готовности обсуждать эту тему на официальном уровне. На протяжении последних 11 лет США категорически отказываются обсуждать российско-китайский проект международного Договора о предотвращении гонки вооружений в космосе, а также в течение нескольких последних лет не желают поддерживать инициативу России о принятии международных обязательств о неразмещении первыми оружия в космосе. США стабильно блокируют резолюции Генеральной Ассамблеи ООН по космической проблематике, которые призваны не допустить развертывание в космосе ударных космических вооружений.

Выступая на Восточном экономическом форуме во Владивостоке 5 сентября этого года, президент России Владимир Путин в критическом ключе затронул проблему размещения оружия в космосе, назвав это очень серьёзным вызовом, а также добавил, что это действительно может глобально изменить ситуацию в мире в сфере безопасности.

Текст взят из программы «Открытый эфир» (телеканал "Звезда") по космической проблематике. «Удар из космоса. Эфир от 9 сентября 2019г

 

Новую триаду возглавит «Рейдер»

В США продолжается совершенствование стратегических наступательных вооружений.

Стратегический бомбардировщик B-2 Spirit. Экипаж – 2 человека. Максимальная скорость – 1010 км/ч. Боевой радиус – 5300 км. Практический потолок – 15,2 км. Боевая нагрузка – 27 тонн. Может нести 16 ядерных бомб или крылатых ракет с ядерным боезарядом.

Новейшая ядерная бомба В-61-12 прошла последнюю стадию проектной оценки и готова к производству. Сообщение об этом появилось на днях со ссылкой на национальное управление по ядерной безопасности США. Указывается, что уже в этом месяце начнётся сертификация завода Pantex (штат Техас) с таким расчётом, чтобы первые ядерные бомбы нового образца сошли с его конвейера в марте 2020 года.

Это сообщение в очередной раз подтверждает, что, постоянно обвиняя Россию в наращивании вооружений и нарушении договоров, касающихся ядерного оружия, Соединённые Штаты сами активно совершенствуют свой ядерный потенциал. По большому счёту в Вашингтоне и не делают тайны, что намерены продолжать развивать свою стратегическую ядерную триаду. Об этом неоднократно говорил, придя в Белый дом, нынешний американский президент, подчеркивая, что Соединённые Штаты должны обладать современным, многофункциональным и устойчивым ядерным потенциалом, который обеспечил бы как их лидерство, так и безопасность.

На это нацелена и новая ядерная стратегия США, обнародованная в начале нынешнего года. В ней отмечается возрастание роли, места и значимости ядерного оружия в обеспечении национальной безопасности страны и её союзников, а также необходимость модернизации существующих стратегических наступательных вооружений и разработки их перспективных видов, совершенствования системы управления стратегической триадой. В этом документе США впервые открыто заявили о возможности ответа ядерным ударом на атаку неядерными вооружениями.

По данным американского Центра стратегических и международных исследований, в настоящее время основные усилия Соединённых Штатов в этой сфере направлены на модернизацию практически всех элементов действующей стратегической ядерной триады. По сути, речь идёт о создании новой триады. При этом до 2026 года на усовершенствование системы контроля и управления стратегическими ядерными силами США должно быть выделено 40,5 млрд долларов, на модернизацию стратегических наступательных вооружений – 400 млрд долларов.

В ядерном арсенале США появится новый стратегический тяжёлый бомбардировщик В-21, который должен будет обладать возможностями прорывать систему ПВО потенциальных противников, проникать на большую глубину в их воздушное пространство, а также наносить удары по жизненно важным объектам и целям с помощью новых крылатых ракет воздушного базирования. Намечено создать минимально 100 таких машин, хотя ВВС предлагали иметь их в два раза больше.

Наша справка. В настоящее время ВВС США располагают стратегическими бомбардировщиками B-1 Lancer («Улан») – 60 машин, B-2 Spirit («Дух») – 20 машин, B-52 Stratofortress («Стратосферная крепость») – 75 машин.

В США появится стратегический тяжёлый бомбардировщик, призванный прорывать систему ПВО противника и проникать на большую глубину в его воздушное пространство

Новый тяжёлый бомбардировщик стратегического назначения первоначально условно назывался LRSB (Long-Range Strike Bomber), или «ударный бомбардировщик большой дальности», но впоследствии он получил буквенно-цифровое наименование и имя собственное – В-21 Raider («Рейдер»). Его ещё именуют «ударный бомбардировщик большой дальности В-21» (цифровой показатель 21 означает XXI век). Его создание доверено одной из ведущих военно-промышленных компаний – Northrop Grumman Corporation.

На 2018 финансовый год на продолжение работ по созданию бомбардировщика В-21 было выделено 2,0 млрд долларов, а на 2019 год запрошено ещё 2,7 млрд. Вся же программа по его разработке оценивалась в ценах 2017 года в 97 млрд долларов. При этом предполагалось, что стоимость каждого самолёта составит около 810 млн долларов.

Он будет создаваться с использованием технологии «стелс», должен иметь большую дальность полёта (до 11 тыс. км) и находиться на боевом дежурстве в воздухе более продолжительный период времени, чем его аналогичные предшественники.

Предполагается, что в конструкции В-21 будут реализованы последние достижения в области двигателестроения, авиационных ударных средств поражения, систем обнаружения наземных целей. Боевая живучесть нового бомбардировщика должна обеспечиваться за счёт сочетания технологии снижения радиолокационной заметности с авиационным комплексом самообороны, включающим управляемые ракеты класса «воздух – воздух» и «воздух – РЛС».

Представители Пентагона заявляли, что новый самолёт должен будет доставлять к целям как ядерные, так и обычные боезаряды. Так, на нём предполагается разместить новую крылатую ракету воздушного базирования в ядерном снаряжении LRSO (Long Range Standoff Cruise Missile) – «крылатую ракету большой дальности в режиме ожидания» с ядерным боезарядом. Выступая в июне 2017 года в конгрессе, сенатор от штата Калифорния Диана Файнштайн заявила, что создаваемая крылатая ракета станет «новым видом ядерного оружия».

В середине 2017 года эта крылатая ракета находилась в начальной стадии разработки, на что было предусмотрено выделение 451 млн долларов. Вместе с тем 10 апреля этого года ВВС США сообщили, что первая подобная ракета может сойти с конвейера уже в 2019 году. Она будет изготавливаться по технологии «стелс». На неё предполагается установить ядерный боезаряд W-80-4, стоимость программы создания которого определена в размере 6 млрд долларов. Максимальная дальность её полёта будет варьироваться от 1200 до 2500 км.

Предполагается установить новую ракету на 76 бомбардировщиков типа В-52Н на тестовый период времени (1 января 2019 г. – 31 декабря 2023 г.), в ходе которого будет происходить наладка оборудования и проверка совместимости программного обеспечения, а также обучение операторов управления этой системой. Такая проверка будет проведена на заводах «Боинг» в Оклахоме. Ожидаемый период окончательного развёртывания новой крылатой ракеты воздушного базирования (КРВБ) – 2026–2030 годы.

Поскольку общее количество таких КРВБ должно составить 1000 – 1100 единиц, то вполне очевидно, что они должны учитываться в балансе стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений сторон как реально существующие.

Заметим, подобной практики не было ранее, поскольку один тяжёлый стратегический бомбардировщик принято засчитывать как одну единицу независимо от количества ядерных боезарядов, которые он мог нести на борту. Это касается и Договора СНВ-3, срок действия которого американские представители в 2016 – 2018 годах предлагали продлить с 2021 до 2026 год.

Кроме вышеназванной КРВБ, «Рейдер» сможет нести на борту большое количество новых ядерных авиабомб В-61-12. При создании этой бомбы инженеры использовали новое хвостовое оперение. Благодаря ему новая модификация бомбы B-61 может корректировать свой полёт и более точно поражать заданные цели. Длина боеприпаса – около 3,5 м, диаметр – 33 см, масса – более 300 кг.

Бомбой В-61-12 могут оснащаться также стратегические бомбардировщики B-52 и B-2, многоцелевые истребители F-15, F-16, F/A-18, британские и немецкие «Торнадо». Ожидается, что F-35 тоже будет сертифицирован для применения новой ядерной бомбы.

В ряде американских публикаций указывается, что перспективный тяжёлый бомбардировщик будет также использоваться как платформа для размещения «оружия направленной энергии». По мнению американских специалистов, новейшие ударные средства, установленные на малозаметном бомбардировщике, получающем целеуказания от космических аппаратов глобальной навигационной системы, могли бы быть использованы не только для подавления ПВО и оптико-электронных средств воздушного наблюдения противника. Его объектами нападения могли бы также стать стартующие межконтинентальные баллистические ракеты наземного базирования или баллистические ракеты подводного старта на активной фазе их полёта. Первый «Рейдер» может появиться в стратегических ядерных силах США в 2026 году.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: “Красная звезда"

Новый военный бюджет США обеспечит наступательный характер их военной политики

Нет никаких сомнений в том, что военный бюджет Соединенных Штатов на очередной 2019 финансовый год, утвержденный Дональдом Трампом, усилит военные приготовления и в полном объеме профинансирует программы их военного строительства.

Документ предусматривает увеличение как суммы общих военных расходов, так и наращивание ассигнований на отдельные военные программы развития вооруженных сил США. Рост суммарных военных расходов до 716 млрд. долларов означает, что принятый военный бюджет является самым крупным в истории страны. Такие расходы в 2019 финансовом  году составят 3,1 % от ВВП страны.

Законопроект предписывает проводить политику, направленную на дальнейшее военно-техническое укрепление НАТО и боевых возможностей этого военного союза, а также требует от всех без исключения государств-участников альянса выделять на военные цели 2% от национального ВВП.

Закладываются солидные средства на модернизацию существующих ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных вооружений, а также на разработку всех трех компонентов качественно новой стратегической ядерной триады США (МБР «Минитмен-4», ПЛАРБ «Колумбия» и тяжелого стратегического бомбардировщика «В-21 Рейдер») вместе с новой ядерной крылатой ракетой воздушного базирования повышенной дальности.

Выделяются средства, направленные на дальнейшее наращивание ударно-боевых потенциалов системы ПРО стратегического назначения, в том числе на первоначальные закупки до 625 ракет-перехватчиков типа «SM-6». На цели развития американской глобальной системы ПРО предписано выделить 12,9 млрд. долларов, в том числе на нужды Управления по ПРО Министерства обороны  9,9 млрд. долларов, что превышает среднегодовые расходы на аналогичные цели в период президентства Барака Обамы.

Ставится задача по усилению космических сил и средств ведения операций в киберпространстве.

Пентагон сохранит широко разветвленную базовую стратегию и средства тылового обеспечения вооруженных сил страны в глобальном масштабе, а также потенциал «сил и средств передового базирования», выдвинутых далеко за пределы континентальной части США, включая корабельные группировки в Мировом океане.

Обращено внимание на важность финансирования «наступательного  потенциала» ВВС и ВМС страны, а также сил быстрого развертывания. Законопроект предписывает увеличить существующую численность Сухопутных войск, ВВС и ВМС США на 26 тыс. человек.

Документ открыто фиксирует глобальную цель вооруженных сил США, провозглашенную нынешним президентом-республиканцем: «Мир посредством силы».

Таким образом, утвержденный им военный бюджет страны на 2019 финансовый год и программы усовершенствования различных видов вооружений обеспечивает Пентагону значительные финансовые  возможности по проведению наступательной военной политики в глобальном масштабе.

Автор: В.П. Козин – ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО

Новый орган по ядерному разоружению?

О монографии бывшего инспектора МАГАТЭ Томас Шеа «Проверяя ядерное разоружение».
 
В октябре этого года старший научный сотрудник Федерации американских ученых и бывший инспектор Международного агентства по атомной энергии (МАГАТЭ) Томас Шеа анонсировал в Венском центре по разоружению и нераспространению свою монографию «Проверяя ядерное разоружение»: «Verifying Nuclear Disarmament». Abingdon: Routledge.2019. 221 рр.
 
Ключевой особенностью издания является разработка нового международного контрольного механизма о поэтапном и полном уничтожении ядерного оружия всеми ядерными государствами, который одновременно займется и проверкой любых попыток воссоздания такого вида оружия массового уничтожения вновь.
 
В представленном исследовании его 78-летний автор, начавший свою военную карьеру на одном из авианосцев США в качестве установщика ядерных авиабомб на самолеты палубной авиации, развивая положения принятого в июле 2017 года международного Договора о запрещении ядерного оружия, предложил дополнительно к МАГАТЭ создать специальный орган по контролю за ядерным разоружением в виде «Международного агентства по ядерному разоружению» (сокращенно МАЯР или в оригинале «International Nuclear Disarmament Agency») в том случае, если названный договор вступит в силу.
 
По мнению американского эксперта, Международное агентство по ядерному разоружению должно стать ключевым органом по контролированию всего процесса глобального ядерного разоружения, проводить мониторинг демонтажа ядерных боезарядов и оборудования по их созданию на заводах-производителях ядерного оружия, а также обеспечить необратимость создания ядерного оружия вновь. Названное учреждение должно функционировать в соответствии с принципами, зафиксированными в тексте Договора о запрещении ядерного оружия.
 
Томас Шеа разработал и представил в своей книге организационно-штатную структуру нового Международного агентства по ядерному разоружению, изложил принципы взаимодействия ядерных государств с МАЯР, а также МАЯР с МАГАТЭ.
 
По представлениям американского исследователя, структуру Международного агентства по ядерному разоружению должен возглавить Совет по ядерному разоружению, состоящий из 24-х членов (по одному от государств, присоединившихся к Договору о запрещении ядерного оружия). Такой орган должен иметь девять постоянных комитетов, которые будут контролировать процесс ликвидации ядерного оружия, обеспечивать защиту связанной с ним секретной информации и надежное хранение ядерного оружия, а также проводить инспекции по проверке договоренностей по всеобъемлющему ядерному разоружению, то есть выполнять некоторые наднациональные функции. Совет должен будет руководить повседневной деятельностью нового разоруженческого контрольного органа и содействовать выполнению всех положений Договора о запрещении ядерного оружия. Научное направление работы МАЯР обеспечат входящие в него штатные Научно-исследовательский институт и Центр по проведению НИОКР, связанные с верификацией ядерного разоружения.
 
Автор монографии разработал ключевые принципы необратимости воссоздания ядерного оружия после его окончательного уничтожения в глобальном масштабе, включая введение жесткого инспекционного режима и обеспечение международного контроля над расщепляющимися материалами, которые могут быть использованы для производства ядерных боезарядов. Он предложил уже в ближайшее время заняться снижением уровня высокообогащенного урана до степени низкообогащенного, который впоследствии можно было бы использовать только на атомных электростанциях.
 
Американский исследователь предложил начать процесс ядерного разоружения с определения для каждого ядерного государства минимального количества расщепляющихся материалов, которые могли бы быть использованы для создания ядерных боезарядов. Затем, по его представлениям, можно было бы приступить к взаимной передаче сведений об оперативно развернутых ядерных боезарядах, которые предполагается ликвидировать в первую очередь, а впоследствии и данных об оперативно неразвернутых ядерных боезарядах, подлежащих утилизации во вторую очередь. Последующим этапом в процессе ядерного разоружения должна стать договоренность об уменьшении объема расщепляющихся материалов с целью создания ядерного оружия и передача их остающихся запасов под особый международный контроль, исключающий воссоздание ядерного оружия в будущем.
 
Томас Шеа предложил ядерным государствам поэтапно принять десять мер доверия в сфере ядерного разоружения. В частности, в качестве важной меры, повышающей степень доверия между ядерными государствами в ракетно-ядерной сфере, он назвал принятие ими перекрестных взаимных обязательств о неприменении первыми ядерного оружия против друг друга или о его неприменении вообще, то есть ни во втором, ни в третьем, ни в каком ином по счету ядерном ударе, а также высказался за подписание двусторонних договоров о постепенном сокращении ядерных арсеналов.
 
Ссылаясь на «Обзор ядерной политики», одобренный администрацией президента Дональда Трампа в феврале 2018 года, Томас Шеа подверг персональной критике за модернизацию ядерного оружия только Россию, КНР и КНДР, опуская при этом факт усовершенствования ядерных арсеналов западной ядерной «тройкой» (Великобританией, США и Францией), а также «фактическими ядерными государствами — Израилем, Индией и Пакистаном.
 
Томас Шеа высказался в поддержку окончательного вступления в силу международного Договора о запрещении ядерного оружия, что входит в противоречие с официальной негативной позицией Вашингтона по всеобщему ядерному разоружению, который наиболее резко выступает против реализации этой идеи по сравнению с другими государствами, располагающими ядерным оружием. Известно, что в Соединенных Штатах уже приняты планы о начале создания через 7–8 лет принципиально новой стратегической ядерной триады, которая по замыслам нынешнего американского военно-политического руководства должна просуществовать вплоть до 80-х годов нынешнего столетия.
 
В своей книге американский исследователь не назвал никаких сроков выхода на глобальный «ядерный нуль», признав, что процесс полного ядерного разоружения может занять многие годы из-за разногласий по этому вопросу, которые существуют между государствами, обладающими ядерным оружием. Он лишь в общей форме отметил, что ядерное разоружение может состояться только тогда, когда все юридические ядерные державы, то есть «ядерная пятерка» в лице пяти постоянных членов Совета Безопасности ООН, и четыре фактические ядерные государства, не присоединившиеся к ДНЯО, а именно Израиль, КНДР, Индия и Пакистан, поймут, что они не смогут полностью обеспечивать свою безопасность только с помощью ядерного оружия, в результате чего перейдут на неядерные средства для защиты своих оборонных интересов. По мнению Томаса Шеа, ядерное разоружение будет проходить «медленно, по-тихому и со значительными расходами».
 
Можно предположить, что представленная монография вызовет некоторый интерес в экспертном сообществе как пример авторской разработки глобального механизма по верификации полного ядерного разоружения на каком-то этапе в будущем. Но она вряд ли станет катализатором дискуссии по проблематике создания мира, полностью свободного от ядерного оружия, в нынешних условиях, когда по вине ведущей ядерной державы — Соединенных Штатов — уровень ракетно-ядерного противостояния в мире значительно возрос и одновременно понизился порог применения ядерного оружия, в частности, за счет готовности Пентагона применить ядерные боезаряды малой мощности, то есть от 5 килотонн и ниже.
 
Реальная ситуация в мире показывает, что до достижения цели полного и необратимого освобождения планеты от ядерных арсеналов остается слишком много препятствий доктринального и военно-технического характера, а также отсутствие глобального консенсуса относительно целесообразности их повсеместной ликвидации. Не отмечается и повышение степени доверия между ядерными государствами, которые по-разному смотрят на контроль над ракетно-ядерными вооружениями и на доктринальные основания для их практического применения.
 
Важно принимать во внимание и тот факт, что за принятие Договора о запрещении ядерного оружия проголосовали пока только 2/3 государств-членов ООН и его не поддержали все ядерные государства. Еще хуже продвигается процесс присоединения к нему: свои подписи под его текстом пока поставили только государства, составляющие треть списочного состава ООН. Столь же вяло идет и процесс его ратификации — к ноябрю текущего года ратифицировали его менее половины стран из 50, после ратификации которого всеми ими названный договор может вступить в силу.
 
О сложностях в реализации Договора о запрещении ядерного оружия говорит и тот факт, что значительная часть членов мирового сообщества не желает сохранять в нынешнем виде Договор о ликвидации РСМД. Об этом наглядно говорят итоги голосования в ООН. В октябре 2018 года Первый комитет Генеральной Ассамблеи этой организации, рассматривающий вопросы разоружения и международной безопасности, к сожалению, проголосовал против проекта резолюции с призывом сохранить Договор о ликвидации РСМД. За проект проголосовало 31 государство, в то время как 54 страны воздержались, а 55 государств, включая США, Великобританию, Канаду, Францию и Украину, выступили против.
 
Иными словами, налицо отсутствие глобального консенсуса по ядерному разоружению. Более того, целенаправленными усилиями Соединенных Штатов, направленными на односторонний разрыв Договора о ликвидации РСМД и отказ от продления Договора СНВ-3, может быть подорван существующий многие десятилетия режим распространения ядерного оружия, а также взломана вся международно-правовая система контроля над ядерными и обычными вооружениями, которая создавалась с большим трудом в течение длительного периода времени.
 
Автор:В.П. Козин
 
Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/42732
 

Нужен разговор не о «ядерных кнопках», а о неприменении ядерного оружия между КНДР и США

Накануне 2018 года и спустя несколько дней после его наступления лидер КНДР Ким Чен Ын и президент США Дональд Трамп предупредили друг друга о том, что у них на их рабочих столах находятся «ядерные кнопки», которые они могут нажать, отдав приказ о нанесении ядерного удара по территории противоположной стороны. При этом хозяин Белого дома, явно не потерпев столь смелого вызова, заявил, что его «ядерная кнопка» намного больше и мощнее, чем у «ракетчика», как он постоянно называет своего северокорейского визави, и, что, мол, она действует.

Некоторые комментаторы поспешили квалифицировать подобный обмен «любезностями» между руководителями двух ядерных государств как безобидную шутку, которая не может вызвать отрицательные последствия как для Северной Кореи и Соединенных Штатов, так и для международного мира и безопасности в целом.

Но, с другой стороны, взаимные намеки об реальном использовании «ядерных кнопок» этих двух государств, имеющих, пусть несопоставимые по мощности и различные в количественном измерении, но все же ядерные боезаряды, доставляемые носителями межконтинентального класса, вызвали озабоченность у многих государственных и политических деятелей как в самих США, так и в целом ряде других стран.

Так, бывший американский вице-президент Джозеф Байден выразил вполне конкретную надежду на то, что нынешний 45-ый американский президент все же не станет нажимать свою «ядерную кнопку». Некоторые американские конгрессмены проявили беспокойство по поводу «воинственных» заявлений со стороны обоих президентов, другие высказались против наращивания «взаимной опасной риторики». Выдвинуто предложение обсудить возникший вопрос в Конгрессе сразу же после возобновления его работы после рождественских и новогодних каникул.

Причина глубокой озабоченности, демонстрируемой по этому поводу, заключается в том, что и президенты США, и КНДР могут единолично и инициативно дать указание о применении ядерного оружия в первом ударе по территории противоположной стороны. Такая вероятность не исключалась ими во многих их публичных заявлениях.

Не вызывает никакого сомнения, что обмен ядерными ударами между Северной Кореей и Соединенными Штатами привел бы к колоссальным жертвам среди их населения и огромным разрушительным последствиям для объектов их инфраструктуры. Не подлежит сомнению и предположение, что масштабное радиоактивное заражение воздушной среды, а также больших сухопутных и морских пространств, которое последовало бы после обмена ядерными ударами между Вашингтоном и Пхеньяном, затронуло бы многие сопредельные государства, причем, расположенные не только в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе.

Видимо, не случайно, что в прошлом году в американском Конгрессе активизировались представители Республиканской и Демократической партий, которые предлагают заблокировать нынешнему и последующим президентам США возможность применения ядерного оружия в первом ударе без разрешения на это названного высшего законодательного органа страны и без ясно выраженного объявления им состояния войны с каким-то другим государством.

В складывающихся условиях наиболее эффективным и наиболее безболезненным способом выхода из драматического балансирования на грани ракетно-ядерной войны для Северной Кореи и Соединенных Штатов могла бы стать юридическая и политически обязывающая договоренность о взаимном неприменении ими ядерного оружия в первом ударе (в виде первоочередной и безотлагательной программы-минимум), а также пакт о взаимном ненападении, уважении суверенитета и территориальной целостности и о невмешательстве во внутренние дела друг друга (в качестве последующей программы-максимум).

Иного пути с целью преодоления этого затяжного и опасного уровня военного противостояния между Пхеньяном и Вашингтоном просто не существует.

Автор: В.П. Козин – ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ, член-корреспондент Российской академии естественных наук, профессор Академии военных наук Российской Федерации

О ЧЕМ ГОВОРИЛИ В ГААГЕ? СТАНЕТ ЛИ ЕВРОПА КОГДА-ТО СВОБОДНОЙ ОТ АМЕРИКАНСКИХ ЯДЕРНЫХ АРСЕНАЛОВ?

Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук Российской Федерации В.П. Козин выступил на Гаагском Форуме

Государства-члены НАТО не намерены требовать от США вывезти американское ядерное оружие, которое является составной частью стратегии ядерного сдерживания альянса, из четырех государств Европы (Бельгии, Нидерландов, Италии и ФРГ), а также из азиатской части Турции после прекращения действия Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД) в августе 2019 года. Государства, входящие в этот амбициозный военный, а отнюдь не политический союз «трансатлантической солидарности», постепенно готовят европейское общественное мнение и к неизбежности развертывания новых американских ракет средней дальности в Европе. Намеченная на апрель 2020 года Обзорная конференция по соблюдению Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия (ДНЯО), скорее всего, завершится безрезультатно.  Именно такие выводы можно сделать по итогам выступлений высокопоставленных официальных лиц альянса на представительной международной конференции сторонников создания безъядерного мира, состоявшейся в Гааге 26 ноября этого года.

Обратило на себя внимание и то обстоятельство, что представленные на форуме миротворческие и антиядерные движения Нидерландов, где, как показывают опросы общественного мнения, 95 процентов опрошенных жителей страны выступают за полную ликвидацию ядерного оружия в глобальном масштабе, даже не поставили вопроса о полном выводе тактического ядерного оружия США с территории этой европейской страны. Названные движения также не заявили и о поддержке предложения России о введении взаимного моратория на развертывание ракет, подпадающих под терминологические определения ДРСМД, в тех районах, где они до сих пор еще никем не размещены.

Налицо явная двойственность в подходах.

В ряде выступлений на конференции прозвучала необоснованная критика линии России в области контроля на вооружениями. Российская сторона вновь была бездоказательно обвинена в «несоблюдении» ДРСМД, в то время как США за последние 20 лет совершили 117 его реальных нарушений, когда при испытания системы ПРО они активно использовали учебные ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, запрещенные этим договорным актом. Были сделаны ложные заявления о «понижении Россией порога применения ядерного оружия», хотя ее ядерная доктрина предусматривает только два случая его использования, да и то – только в ответ. В то же самое время в ядерную стратегию Дональда Трампа включено в общей сложности 14 таких положений, в том числе положение о применении ядерного оружия в первом ударе.

Явно выборочные выпады.

Эти и другие бездоказательные утверждения в адрес Российской Федерации по ядерной проблематике показывают, что государства, являющиеся членами НАТО, в преддверии очередного Лондонского саммита альянса, намерены усилить информационно-пропагандистское оправдание своих собственных ракетно-ядерных приготовлений, в том числе на европейском континенте. Но именно такие приготовления в прошлом (с середины 50-ых годов) являлись и в будущем (при появлении здесь новых ракет средней дальности США) будут являться прямым нарушением двух первых статей ДНЯО, которые запрещают ядерным государствам развертывать ядерное оружие на территории неядерных государств, а неядерным государствам – размещать его на своей территории.

Интересно: как можно создать мир, свободный от ядерного оружия, если США по-прежнему распространяют его за пределами своих рубежей?

 

Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/45607

О визите ведущего эксперта Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО В.П.Козина в Словакию

С 9 по 11 апреля 2019 г.  Словакию посетил ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО, член-корреспондент Российской академии естественных наук, член-корреспондент Российской Академии военных наук В.П.Козин. В ходе визита эксперт представил свою новую монографию «Эволюция стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений США и особенности их применения в XXI веке».

Состоялись встречи специалиста со студентами и преподавателями Института международных и общественных связей («ИМОС», гг. Прага, Братислава), был проведен круглый стол в «Институте АСА: Анализ, Стратегии, Альтернативы». Эксперт дал интервью словацким и чешским СМИ.

Руководству названных организаций были переданы экземпляры этой монографии в качестве дара.

Главными темами выступлений В.П.Козина в Словакии стала ситуация вокруг Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД), а также российские оценки несоблюдения США целого ряда соглашений и обязательств в области контроля над вооружениями, и нераспространения.

Выступавший рассказал о систематических нарушениях Вашингтоном своих обязательств по ДРСМД и игнорировании им в этой связи серьёзных российских озабоченностей, имеющих прямое отношение к невыполнению американской стороной этого Договора. Такая линия имеет негативную проекцию на ситуацию в сфере безопасности в Европе и в мире в целом, подчеркнул российский эксперт. Было обращено внимание на усиление ракетно-ядерного компонента в нынешних военных стратегиях США и усиление военной активности стран-членов НАТО в районах, прилегающих к территории Российской Федерации.

В.П.Козин ознакомил местную общественность с неоспоримыми фактами, призванными способствовать объективной оценке реального положения дел в области контроля над вооружениями и ситуации с выполнением соответствующих договорных обязательств как Россией, так и США.

Выступления российского специалиста вызвали большой резонанс у словацкой аудитории.

Источник: сайт посольства Российской Федерации в Словацкой Республике

 

О военной активности Польши против России

В связи с распространяемыми в польском экспертном сообществе утверждениями, что Россия не имеет оснований проявлять беспокойство в связи военными приготовлениями НАТО на территории Польши, редакция сайта  ЦВПИ обратилась с просьбой прокомментировать такие заявления ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ В.П. Козина, который отметил следующее.

Россия проявляет озабоченность не только в связи с начавшимся строительством оперативной базы ПРО США в Редзиково под Слупском, которая с декабря 2018 года может размещать в своих пусковых установках как ракеты-перехватчики (оборонительное оружие), но и в перспективе  крылатые ракеты наземного базирования (КРНБ), а также ударные средства, которые будут созданы в США в рамках программы «Молниеносный глобальный удар» (МГУ), которые относятся к наступательным средствам первого ядерного и неядерного удара. Тем более с учетом того, что недавно обе палаты Конгресса США в нарушение Договора о ликвидации РСМД рекомендовали Дональду Трампу выделить на разработку новой КРНБ 58 млн. долларов и продолжать работы по созданию ударных систем МГУ.

В этом контексте надо иметь в виду, что кнопка «пуск» для запуска всех названных средств будут всегда находиться в руках Пентагона и президента США, а не польского военно-политического руководства.

Варшава участвует в «чикагской триаде» - оперативно-стратегическом объединении ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных вооружений альянса, созданном на его саммите в Чикаго в мае 2012 года, которые выдвинуты на передовые рубежи к границам России и Беларуси.

Россия на может не учитывать заявление бывшего заместителя министра обороны Польши Томаша Шатковского о необходимости разместить на польской земле ядерное оружие США по примеру еще пяти стран НАТО, где оно находится же в течение нескольких десятилетий и подвергается очередной модернизации (Бельгия, Италия, Нидерланды, Турция и ФРГ).

Россия не может игнорировать крупные военные учения НАТО с участием Польши и зачастую на ее территории, которые проводятся вооруженными силами НАТО и имеют наступательный характер. Такие учения по количеству личного состава и тяжелой техники в несколько раз превосходят недавние учения России и Беларуси «Запад 2017», в которых было задействовано в общей сложности 12,5 тыс. человек. Россия учитывает, что за последние годы НАТО в два раза нарастили количество таких учений (до 300 в год) и половина из них имеет антироссийскую направленность.

Невозможно не принимать во внимание вообще пятикратное увеличение деятельности ВС альянса и десятикратное усиление его авиаразведывательной деятельности близ рубежей России и Беларуси. Не секрет, что в этой деятельности активно используются военные базы и военные аэродромы Польши. В военном бюджете США на 2018 год на усиление военного присутствия США в странах ЦВЕ выделено 4,6 млрд. долларов.

Авиация ВВС Польши принимает активное участие в ежедневно и ежегодно проводимой ударной авиацией НАТО операции «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» в небе Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии, то есть в непосредственной близости у рубежей России и Беларуси. Польша уже предоставляла свою военно-воздушную базу под Мальборком для авиации «двойного назначения» ядерных держав НАТО.

В России обращают внимание и на то, что Польша разделяет итоговые документы двух последних саммитов НАТО в Ньюпорте и Варшаве, в которых российская сторона именуется не иначе как «агрессор». Это означает, что Варшава сама настроена агрессивно против России, коль скоро видит в России «агрессивные устремления», но так и не доказав, в чем же они проявляются.

Итак, Россия не может не учитывать в своем военно-стратегическом планировании активное участие Польши в военных приготовлениях НАТО против России и Беларуси в более широком контексте, которое было неоправданно инициировано альянсом 1 апреля 2014 года и в ряде его последующих решений.

К сожалению, Варшава поддержала это и другие деструктивные военно-стратегические установки трансатлантического союза и постоянно вносит заметный вклад в их реализацию. Все эти обстоятельства не могут не сказываться на российско-польских отношениях. Разумеется, не могут не сказываться в крайне негативном ключе.

 

 

О выступлении В.П. Козина в Музее Победы

Член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН, ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ В.П. Козин выступил 27 февраля в Музее Победы на круглом  столе «Противодействие разрушению образа Великой Отечественной войны: новые информационные угрозы, технологии и борьба за историческую память».

Темой для обсуждения стали как противодействие фальсификациям истории Великой Отечественной, так и  причины их появления; были озвучены наиболее актуальные и острые темы истории войны. В дискуссии приняли  участие ведущие российские эксперты в области военной истории, исследователи, геополитики и др.

В своем докладе «От фальсификации истории Великой Отечественной войны к фальсификации современности в области контроля над вооружениями» В. П. Козин отметил, что  преднамеренное искажение истории ВОВ и фальсификация современных подходов к контролю над вооружениями со стороны США и НАТО применительно к России являются звеньями одной и той же цепи. Такие методы информационного воздействия призваны создать искаженную оценку событий, создать облик "нового врага" и  заложить основу для дополнительных военных приготовлений   Североатлантического союза, в том числе в виде средств передового базирования, а также взломать существующий режим контроля над вооружениями в ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и иных видах вооружений.

О выступлении В.П. Козина

Член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН, ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ В.П. Козин 26 января принял участие в представительной международной конференции, организованной в Москве российскими и зарубежными политическими и общественными движениями, выступающими за укрепление международной безопасности и развитие контактов с русскоговорящими соотечественниками, проживающими за пределами России.

Он представил доклад «Тринадцать нерешенных проблем в российско-американских отношениях на современном этапе», в котором в критическом ключе изложил особенности негативных подходов США к ракетно-ядерным, противоракетным, космическим и обычным вооружениям.

На основе анализа ряда американских изданий он пришел к выводу, что нынешняя американская администрация намерена развернуть новые ракеты средней дальности в Европе, которые подпадали бы под ограничения Договора о ликвидации РСМД, если бы он не был в одностороннем порядке разорван американской стороной. В.П. Козин представил карту Европы, где, по его мнению, могут быть развернуты такие ракеты, производство которых в США будет продолжено.

Он также обратил внимание на то, что нынешняя американская администрация уже начала поставлять в некоторые европейские государства новые истребители-бомбардировщики F-35A «двойного назначения», то есть те, которые могут нести как обычные, так и ядерные авиабомбы. В частности, такие самолеты уже заказали Великобритания, Дания, Италия, Норвегия, Польша и другие государства. Не прекращается внедрение системы ПРО США на европейском континенте и вокруг него.  Проводятся масштабные военные учения НАТО, которые, по признанию его военно-политического руководства, после окончания войны в 1945 году в Европе ранее с таким размахом не проводились.

К сожалению, заключил ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ, пропагандисткой машине Североатлантического союза удалось добиться такой ситуации в общественно-политических кругах Европы, когда в государствах-членах НАТО, давших согласие на размещение ядерного оружия США на своей территории еще в 50-ые годы прошлого столетия, возникла двойственность в его восприятии: с одной стороны, граждане таких государств выказываются против применения ядерного оружия в глобальном масштабе и за его полное уничтожение, но приглушают свои голоса, когда речь заходит о том, сохранять ли такой вид оружия США на своей территории или нет.

На этом фоне, как считает В.П. Козин, России следует более решительно ставить перед США требование о полном выводе их тактического ядерного оружия из Европы и средств его доставки, а также об отказе Вашингтона от развертывания в Европе и Азии новых ракет, которые прежде однозначно относились бы к классу ракет, запрещенных Договором о ликвидации РСМД.

 

Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/45982

О выступлении в Калининграде

Ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России В.П. Козин вступил 2 ноября в Калининградской областной научной библиотеке с публичной лекцией на тему: «Перспективы контроля над вооружениями с США», в которой затронул актуальные проблемы в названной области, возникшие из-за деструктивной линии США и НАТО, а также ответил на многочисленные вопросы аудитории. Он поддержал проводимые в Российской Федерации ответные военные и военно-технические мероприятия, направленные на усиление национальной обороны и безопасности страны, в том числе на западном направлении и, в частности, в Калининградской области, которые были вызваны необоснованным и значительным наращиванием комбинированных военных потенциалов и активизации масштабной военной деятельности ведущих стран Запада и их союзников в данном регионе.

В.П. Козин передал в дар библиотеке восемь своих монографий по военно-политическим вопросам, изданных в России на русском и английском языках, в которых предметно критикуется военное строительство и военная политика США и НАТО, направленные на обострение международной и региональной обстановки, в том числе в этой части Европы.

О выступлении ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ В. Козина на международном семинаре в Исламабаде

Vladimir Kozin addressing at a Seminar on “Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Challenges and Opportunities in Islamabad.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan: A top Russian political and defence expert has said that Pakistan is being blamed for harboring terrorists by the United States which is contrary to facts.
 
“19 more new terrorist organisations have emerged in Afghanistan since the US came there to fight Al-Qaeda and Taliban,” said Dr. Vladimir Kozin, the leading expert at Center for Military-Political Studies in Moscow State of Institute of International Relations, Russian Foreign Ministry, at a Seminar on “Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Challenges and Opportunities” organized by the Center for Global & Strategic Studies (CGSS) in Islamabad.
 
He was of the view that regional stakeholders must be conscious about new US nuclear doctrine and use of high technological nuclear motivated weapons and their could be use in Afghanistan. Responding a question he stated that controlled and limited use of nuclear weapons by United States in Afghanistan could not totally be ruled out.
 
Vladimir Kozin who had been in Kabul Embassy in 1972 and had been a part of Soviet as well as Russian Diplomatic Corps in the region till 2012, spoke on “Role of Russia in Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Challenges and Opportunities”, and said that Russia and China are being tagged as threat by the United Sates while both are major members of SCO.
 
The Russian expert said as Pakistan is being made scapegoat for US failure in Afghanistan, Iran is also tagged as a state sponsor of terrorism by the United States.
 
Vladimir Kozin said that the Unites States has failed to bring peace in Afghanistan rather it has brought more instability and terrorism in the war-stricken Country.
 
“US wants to create new collision in Afghanistan but for what reason?” he raised a question, and said that chaos is ever-increasing in Afghanistan.
 
Dr. Vladimir Kozin said that the United States has great ambitions in Afghanistan and Central Asia. “The US is trying to establish its political castle in Central Asia,” he remarked.
 
The political and defence expert also said that the United States is also jeopardizing peace efforts in Syria.
 
Vladimir Kozin said that the US nuclear strategy is transforming and the World must carefully watch it. He said that the United States violated nuclear treaty 93 times which was signed between the US and Russia in 90s.
 
In addition, he said that the terrorism and extremism are major problems being faced by the region. He said that SCO Member States should work at security issue of the region without entering to any security contracts.
 
Dr. Vladimir Kozin underlined the need for establishing peace keeping units of SCO. He said that Special Military Advisors Group should be established comprising of military experts of SCO Member States.

О выступлениях представителей ЦВПИ

2 марта в Военной академии Генерального штаба Вооруженных Сил Российской Федерации состоялась военно-научная конференция, организованная в рамках ежегодного отчетного собрания Академии военных наук и посвященная развитию военной стратегии в современных условиях. С докладом об основных направлениях развития военной стратегии выступил начальник Генерального штаба Вооруженных Сил Российской Федерации – первый заместитель Министра обороны России генерал армии Валерий Герасимов. Участники конференции обсудили характер будущих войн, вооруженных конфликтов и наиболее актуальные проблемы в сфере обороны и контроля над вооружениями.

В работе конференции приняли участие руководящий состав Министерства обороны России, члены Академии военных наук, а также ведущие ученые вузов и научно-исследовательских организаций страны.

С докладами на конференции вступили директор ЦВПИ, профессор  А.И. Подберезкин (тема выступления: «Значение системы ВКС в условиях обострения военно-политической обстановки в мире») и ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ, член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН В.П. Козин (на тему: «Особенности негативного отношения США к договорам в области контроля над вооружениями и перспективная реакция России с точки зрения укрепления ее национальной безопасности и стратегической стабильности»).

Краткие тезисы выступления В.П. Козина на мероприятии публикуются ниже.


Центр военно-политических исследований

В.П.Козин

 член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН

ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России

Выступление на годовом Собрании Академии военных наук России 2 марта 2019 года

 

 

ОСОБЕННОСТИ НЕГАТИВНОГО ОТНОШЕНИЯ США

К ДОГОВОРАМ В ОБЛАСТИ КОНТРОЛЯ НАД ВООРУЖЕНИЯМИ

И ПЕРСПЕКТИВНАЯ РЕАКЦИЯ РОССИИ С ТОЧКИ ЗРЕНИЯ УКРЕПЛЕНИЯ ЕЕ НАЦИОНАЛЬНОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ И СТРАТЕГИЧЕСКОЙ СТАБИЛЬНОСТИ

 

Начиная с 1996 года, то есть после отказа США ратифицировать Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний, практически все последующие американские президенты вплоть до нынешнего, неизменно проводили и до сих пор проводят линию, направленную на слом системы договоров в сфере контроля над вооружениями (КНВ). С целью прикрытия такого долговременного курса США предъявляют необоснованные претензии к российской стороне, обвиняя ее в «нарушении» пяти договоров в этой области (это Договор СНВ-3, ДРСМД, ДОВСЕ, ДОН и Венский документ 2011 года о мерах доверия).

У России же имеется гораздо больше претензий к Вашингтону на данном направлении. Они конкретны и обоснованы, поскольку США демонстрируют негативное отношение к 12 договорным актам в этой сфере в виде их нарушений, односторонних денонсаций, отказа от ратификации или вообще уклоняются от их обсуждения.

Хотелось бы обратить ваше внимание на один недостаточно используемый фактор, связанный с ДРСМД, а именно количество его нарушений американской стороной. Да, российские официальные представители говорят о подобных «несоблюдениях», называя три их проявления, но весьма редко обозначают общее количество таких нарушений.

Итак, сколько же накоплено нарушений американскими визави? В общей сложности за последние 18 лет, то есть, начиная с 2001 года, когда Вашингтон объявил о готовности выйти из Договора по ПРО, Соединенные Штаты 96 раз нарушили ДРСМД. Это происходило и происходит при проверке эффективности их глобальной системы ПРО, когда Пентагон использует в качестве реальных ракет-мишеней ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, запрещенные названным договором. Основным источником таких сведений является Управление по ПРО Пентагона (УПРО).

В данном контексте учитывается недавнее испытание, проведенное ВМС США 11 декабря прошлого года, когда средствами ПРО ими была успешно перехвачена ракета средней дальности. На слайде в порядке примера помещен скриншот пресс-релиза УПРО об этом испытании.

Но если считать не количество испытаний, а количество использованных ракет, что гораздо важнее то за последние 20 лет суммарное нарушение американской стороной ДРСМД в этом случае составит 117 раз. Дело в том, что в ряде испытаний перехватывались групповые ракетные цели, включавшие две и даже пять ракет средней и меньшей дальности. Помимо УПРО имеется и второй источник такой информации. На слайде показан справочный материал Исследовательской службы Конгресса США, где на 31 странице из 80 излагаются особенности испытаний системы ПРО с использованием ракет средней и меньшей дальности в качестве ракет-мишеней.

Выступая 22 марта 2018 года в Конгрессе, начальник Управления по ПРО генерал-лейтенант Сэмуэл Гривс объявил, что в текущем году США проведут еще 12 подобных испытаний с применением и ракет-перехватчиков, и ракет-мишеней. Стало быть, нарушения ДРСМД американской стороной будут продолжены.

Есть некоторые особенности при изложении позиции США в области КНВ. В российских публикациях обращается недостаточное внимание на нарушение Вашингтоном первой статьи ДНЯО, которая запрещает ядерным государствам размещать ядерное оружие на территории неядерных стран. Представляется неправомерным применение термина «нестратегическое ядерное оружие» к ТЯО США, поскольку этот термин говорит о том, что этот вид оружия, мол, не может решать стратегические задачи. Но на самом деле может, если он будет доставлен ТБ «В-2А» и новым ТБ «В-21 Рейдер». Кстати, Госдепартамент и Пентагон относят к стратегическим ядерным вооружениям три вида тактических авиабомб семейства «В-61»: их 7, 11 и 12 модификации.

Российские эксперты, связанные с западными исследовательскими  центрами, считают, что Вашингтон верен принципам ДВЗЯИ, о чем, якобы, свидетельствует новая ядерная стратегия Трампа. Но это – заведомо искаженная точка зрения, поскольку на стр.63 этой стратегии исключается возможность ратификации этого договора и обозначена вероятность возобновления подземных ядерных испытаний на полигоне в штате Невада.

Складывается твердое убеждение, что долговременная американская линия, направленная на подрыв системы КНВ, будет продолжена и в последующие годы. Как справедливо отметил 27 февраля этого года министр обороны России, генерал армии С.К. Шойгу, подобная линия будет дополняться стремлением США изменить в свою пользу и режим контроля над обычными вооружениями в Европе.

На слайде показан график создания в США первых образцов принципиально новой стратегической ядерной триады, которая будет действовать с 2025 года до 2095 года. Антироссийски настроенные российские эксперты распространяют ложное мнение, что США не намерены создавать ее, а лишь занимаются ее модернизацией. Но это не соответствует действительности, поскольку у СЯС США появятся принципиально новые и более усовершенствованные средства доставки ядерных боезарядов. Российское военно-политическое руководство признает факт создания новой стратегической ядерной триады американскими контрагентами.

Все это создаёт качественно новую военную опасность, которую Россия обязана учитывать в своей политике по укреплению обороноспособности страны, развитию российских Вооружённых Сил, а также в проведении внешнеполитического курса в целом.

Такая опасность проявляется в резком нарушении Вашингтоном баланса между наступательными и оборонительными вооружениями, а также в стимулировании им двух новых видов гонки вооружений: противоракетных и ударных космических. Подобная опасность усиливается повышением вероятности применения США ядерного оружия, в том числе боезарядов малой мощности от 5 кт и ниже. Вашингтон не взял на себя твердое письменное обязательство не размещать новые ядерные КРНБ и иные ракеты в Европе. Ядерная стратегия Трампа предусматривает 14 случаев применения ядерного оружия против шести, обозначенных в ядерной стратегии Обамы. Все эти случаи изложены в Приложении.

США по-прежнему сохранят в будущем за собой право применения ядерного оружия в первом ударе, причем, такую исключительную прерогативу в США имеет только один человек – президент. Американское военно-политическое руководство подтверждает приверженность стратегии «расширенного ядерного сдерживания» и политике размещения ядерного оружия в качестве потенциала «передового базирования». Оно продолжит выполнять соглашения со своими союзниками по НАТО о проведении «совместных ядерных миссий», сохранит повышенную степень боеготовности своих СНВ и ТЯО.

В свете сказанного вытекают следующие практические предложения:

1. Следует блокировать попытки США и НАТО навязывать Российской Федерации селективный, то есть выборочный метод разработки договоров по КНВ, когда сокращается какой-то один вид вооружений, но в то же время наш вероятный противник наращивает другой их вид.

2. Контрпродуктивным представляется объявление нами заинтересованности в продлении срока действия Договора СНВ-3 на последующие пять лет (до 2026 года) в условиях, когда Вашингтон не проявляет готовность к этому, когда он не будет ограничивать глобальную систему ПРО, разорвет ДРСМД в августе текущего года, сохранит свое ТЯО в Европе и Азии, а также не будет решать проблему предотвращения размещения оружия в космосе. Есть и еще одна проблема в данной сфере. Если Россия до 2026 года оставит лимиты по ядерным боезарядам и носителям СНВ, соответственно, до 1550 и до 800 единиц, то не придется ли ей с учетом появления новых видов СНВ преждевременно сокращать существующие, либо сдерживать поступление новых видов СНВ?  Это – принципиально важный вопрос.

3. Необходимо переходить с США с виртуальных на реальные зачеты боезарядов СНВ, отходя от практики прошлого «один стратегический ТБ – это один ядерный боезаряд».

4. Важно постоянно требовать полного вывода наземных элементов инфраструктуры ПРО и ТЯО США из Европы и Азии.

5. Целесообразно активно побуждать США отменить ракетно-ядерную стратегию нанесения первого ядерного удара.

6. Надлежит остро и последовательно ставить перед США и НАТО вопрос о полном прекращении круглосуточной и круглогодичной операции альянса «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» в воздушном пространстве трех государств Балтии, в которой задействованы истребители-бомбардировщики «двойного назначения» трех ядерных держав Запада.

7. В условиях отсутствия доверия между Россией и странами НАТО можно было бы рассмотреть вопрос о введении нами моратория на соблюдение ДОН.

8. В последнее время в официальных и академических кругах НАТО появились высказывания о необходимости разработки новых механизмов КНВ с учетом активного развития кибертехнологий и гиперзвукового оружия. Не следует торопиться позитивно отвечать на такие призывы.

9. Представляется целесообразным давать отпор российским и зарубежным экспертам, которые камуфлируют явные нарушения США и НАТО международных договоров в области КНВ и целенаправленно искажают российскую позицию по данной проблематике.

10. Было бы весьма полезно чаще использовать на официальных и неофициальных площадках цифровые показатели, которые наглядно характеризуют военную политику США и НАТО Подобные цифры подчас действуют сильнее на западную аудиторию, чем многочасовые выступления. Если бы мировое сообщество хорошо знало такие показатели, то необоснованную критику российской военной и внешней политики со стороны США и стран НАТО можно было бы снизить.

В Российской Федерации уже давно ведется широкая кампания по противодействию фальсификации истории, что является логичным и правильным шагом. Но Россия должна одновременно, не ослабевая усилий на этом направлении, активно противодействовать и фальсификации современности, в том числе в такой ее важной составляющей, как контроль над вооружениями.

Эта область давно стала специфической площадкой информационной войны Запада против России. И поэтому ей надо уделять повышенное внимание.

 

О выходе США из ДРСМД: изощренная дезинформация

 

На протяжении последних семи лет Вашингтон упорно лгал мировому сообществу, что не он, а Россия «не соблюдала» этот договор, создавая информационное прикрытие для своего выхода из него.

В том же духе в США и НАТО продолжается тщательно срежиссированная кампания по дискредитации позиции России относительно ДРСМД и обелению долгосрочной политики Вашингтона, которая давно была направлена на его денонсацию. Уже после одностороннего выхода США из этого договорного акта 2 августа такие заявления сделали советник президента по вопросам нацбезопасности Джон Болтон и генсекретарь НАТО Йенс Столтенберг.

2 августа госсекретарь Майк Пампео в своем твите из четырех фраз допустил сразу четыре ошибки, написав, что США дали России шесть месяцев, чтобы вернуться к его соблюдению (странно, что «дали», так как положение о полугодовом предварительном уведомлении о выходе имеется в ДРСМД); что Россия, якобы, отказалась от него (другая сторона не может отказаться от уведомления, сделанного другой стороной); что США не будут соблюдать договор, когда другие нарушают его (то есть, когда его нарушают сами США), и что Россия несет ответственность за это (вызывает удивление в том, что, по мнению Вашингтона, Москва вообще отвечает за все, что творится в США).

В отдельном заявлении шефа американской дипломатии также 2 августа вновь была возложена ответственность за содеянное на российскую сторону, но без малейших доказательств «несоблюдения» договора. А они так и не были предъявлены Вашингтоном в течение последних семи лет.

30 июля госдепартамент США «отличился» еще раз. В своей «фактологической» справке, касающейся ДРСМД, он снова (уже в который раз!) исказил позицию России относительно причин прекращения его существования. В документе был затронут еще ряд вопросов, которые говорят о развязывании в Вашингтоне целенаправленной дезинформационной кампании, связанной с названным договором.

Но хорошо известно, что российская сторона демонстрировала иную, диаметрально противоположную линию к ДРСМД: не нарушала его и заранее не объявляла о своем выходе из него.

За последние семь лет официальные российские делегации провели на тему его соблюдения с американскими представителями около 30 консультаций, шесть встреч технических экспертов сторон и два заседания Специальной комиссии по проверке его соблюдения. Кроме того, состоялось несколько двусторонних встреч на весьма высоком уровне, в том числе в этом году в Сочи и Женеве. Следует заметить, что многие из названных контактов были инициированы именно российской стороной.

Москва на основе реальных тактико-технических характеристик показала, что российская ракета с индексом 9М729 никак не является «нарушением» ДРСМД, поскольку максимальная дальность ее полета не превышает 480 км. Это не позволяет считать ее ракетой «меньшей дальности», к которым относятся ракеты от 500 до 1000 км. При ее публичной демонстрации в январе этого года в парке «Патриот» российская сторона пошла на беспрецедентную открытость, доказав, что эта ракета никак не подпадает под ограничения ДРСМД. Россия сообщила военным атташе зарубежных стран, а также представителям СМИ сугубо закрытые данные об этой ракете, хотя была не обязана делать это, поскольку вся инспекционная деятельность по договору завершилась еще 18 лет назад.

Но Вашингтон до сих пор не показал российским представителям ни одной своей ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, которые использовались при тестировании противоракетной системы США в качестве объектов перехвата. Не продемонстрировал он ни свою комбинированную операционную базу ПРО в Румынии, имеющую наступательный потенциал, ни строящуюся аналогичную инфраструктуру в Польше.

США пытались утаить от мировой общественности не только типы ракет средней и меньшей дальности, которые в течение последних 20 лет они использовали в качестве перехватываемых целей. А это в общей сложности шесть видов таких ракет. Они лишь косвенно признали в документах Пентагона, что за это время ими были запущены для проверки эффективности системы ПРО 117 таких ракет в качестве ракет-мишеней.

Российская же сторона была неизменно заинтересована в сохранении договора 1987 года. И даже тогда, когда Белый дом объявил о своей приостановке участия в нем со 2 февраля этого года, Москва ответила точно так же только 3 июля. Российское руководство предложило ввести двусторонний мораторий на развертывание ракет средней и меньшей дальности в регионах, где их пока нет. Но США ответили на это отказом.

На этом фоне нельзя не видеть, что они стремятся к взлому всей системы контроля над вооружениями. Хорошо известно, что именно они инициировали создание ядерного оружия, реально применили его против Японии и продолжают наращивать его в значительных размерах, выделяя на эти цели такие денежные средства, которые не может себе позволить любое другое государство. В ближайшие 30 лет они предполагают потратить на это 1,2 триллиона долларов.

Об отношении США к проблематике контроля над вооружениями говорит тот факт, что они проявляют негативное отношение к 13 международным договорам именно в этой области. Трудно поверить в то, что США хотят открыть «новую эру» в названной сфере. Возводят слишком много преград.

С 50-х годов Пентагон складирует в Европе тактическое ядерное оружие; с 2004 года инициировал в небе Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии операцию ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», в которой принимают участие самолеты-носители ядерного оружия; с 2011 г. стал направлять вокруг Европы корабли с ракетами-перехватчиками системы ПРО; с 2016 г. развернул наземный вариант системы ПРО в Румынии и осуществил ряд других масштабных военных приготовлений. Кроме того, США не ратифицировали ДОВСЕ и отказались рассматривать проект Договора о европейской безопасности. Министр обороны США уже поспешил заявить о развертывании ракет средней дальности в Азии.

Вашингтон также стал автором гонки противоракетных вооружений и приступил к раскручиванию гонки ударных космических вооружений.

Не Москва объявила себя страной, желающей денонсации ДРСМД, который свыше 30 лет служил краеугольным камнем глобальной стабильности. Это сделал президент Дональд Трамп — сначала в октябре прошлого года, затем в феврале текущего. Именно по этой причине перестал существовать этот важный договорный акт.

Поэтому вся ответственность за его развал с глубокими негативными последствиями полностью лежит на Вашингтоне, а не на Москве, как это пытаются без устали доказывать Джон Болтон, Майк Помпео и Йенс Столтенберг.

Автор: В.Козин, Источник: Сайт МГИМО

О некоторых законодательных акциях Киева

12 апреля 2022 года президент Украины В. Зеленский заявил о намерении в «ускоренном, за одно поколение, отказе от всего русского». Причиной принятия такого решения им обозначено «развязывание Россией боевых действий против украинского народа». Предлагаемые законодательные инициативы на высшем государственном уровне подтверждают приверженность политического руководства Украины идеологии неонацизма.

Несмотря на то, что Российская Федерация является многонациональным государством, украинским руководством принимаются меры, направленные на поражение в правах «неграждан враждебного государства», а именно русских.

Недостаточность норм, определенных действующим законом Украины «О борьбе с наследием тоталитарных режимов» планируется дополнить внесенным на рассмотрение в Верховную Раду законопроектом № 7253. Этим нормативно-правовым актом будет предусмотрено искоренение из общественного пространства топонимов, ассоциируемых именно с русским народом, его историей, традициями и культурным наследием.

Несмотря на то, что вводимый законопроектом № 7273 запрет вводится на российскую музыкальную продукцию, не сложно предположить, что в трактовке местных неонацистов он будет распространен на русскую музыкальную культуру в целом.

Департаментом образования Украины готовится законопроект, предписывающий полное прекращение изучения русского языка в общеобразовательных учебных заведениях. Мэр Житомирской области С. Сухомлин заявил о готовности к прекращению набора в классы по изучению русского языка с 1 сентября 2022 года.

Предлагаемые в законопроектах нормы явно направлены на укрепление, давно прививаемой на Украине тотальной русофобии и создание условий, благоприятных для реализации неонацистами политики геноцида русскоязычного населения, которая уже давно проводится.

12 апреля 2022 года в Верховную Раду Украины внесен на рассмотрение законопроект № 7265. Документ предписывает гражданам Украины, подлежащим мобилизации и находящимся за границей, в течение 15 дней вернуться в страну в период военного положения. За неисполнение предусмотрено наказание в виде лишения свободы на срок от 5 до 10 лет.

Граждане Украины, подпадающие под действие этого закона, условно делятся на две категории: те, кто целенаправленно покинул страну после начала Российской Федерацией специальной военной операции и те, которые и ранее находились за границей, в основном на заработках. Первые – уже приняли решение о неучастии в боевых действиях и однозначно не намерены возвращаться. Большинство же отнесенных ко второй группе поставлено перед выбором между участием в войне или тюрьмой. И те и другие будут стремиться получить на территории европейских государств легальный статус за счет смены гражданства, что как известно проблематично. В этой ситуации большинство из них перейдет на нелегальное положение и пополнят ряды криминальных структур европейских стран.

Прибывшие в Европу граждане Украины дали о себе знать в Европе. В Австрии, Германии, Франции, Италии, Чехии, Швеции и Польше все чаще звучат недовольства предоставляемыми им условиями. В Болгарии проведением митингов пытаются влиять на внешнюю политику страны. В Молдавии требуют общаться с ними на украинском языке, в Латвии организуют шествия в костюмах зомби. Многие европейские страны уже принимают меры для снижения на их территории числа украинских мигрантов. Запущенный процесс возвращения украинцев на родину с введением в действие закона остановится.

Руководство Украины понимает, что рассматриваемой категорией граждан невозможно восполнить потери, понесенные ВСУ. Этот законопроект – обычный шантаж, преследующий целью побудить Европу, несмотря на снижение показателей национальных экономик, продолжить финансовую и военную помощь Украине.

14 апреля 2022 года В. Зеленский обратился к главе Еврокомиссии У. фон дер Ляйен с требованием оказания ежемесячной финансовой помощи Украине в размере 7 млрд. долларов США.

Все чаще звучат запросы к европейским государствам на наращивание поставок различных типов вооружений (материал на эту тему «Поставкам вооружений Киеву извне должен быть положен конец» размещен).

Автор: В.П. Козин – член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России

 

О новом военном бюджете США: в чем его суть и куда он ведет?

 
После утверждения в Сенате нового бюджета Пентагона на 2020 финансовый год президент Дональд Трамп обещал подписать соответствующий законопроект «незамедлительно». Общая сумма военных расходов может составить 738 млрд. долларов, что на 3,1% больше аналогичного прошлогоднего показателя. 
 
Новый военный бюджет США в целом сохраняет все негативные характеристики предыдущих военных бюджетов республиканской администрации Трампа.
 
Неизменными остаются повышенные ассигнования на все ключевые военные программы, которые предполагают модернизацию существующих ракетно-ядерных вооружений стратегического и тактического назначения, а также создание качественно новой стратегической ядерной триады, развитие противоракетных и гиперзвуковых систем, сил общего назначения, усиление сил «передового базирования» и проведение силовых операций за рубежом, на которые уйдет до 9 процентов сверстанного бюджета.
 
Значительные средства будут выделены Космическим силам США, которые будут созданы в следующем году и которым предписано «доминировать» в космосе. В целом на военные космические программы Пентагону предлагается выделить 14 млрд. долларов, что на 14 процентов больше, чем в 2019 финансовом году.
 
Остается неизменной базовая стратегия: сохранится около 800 американских военных баз, несмотря на критику сократить их за ненадобностью.
 
Вызывают сомнение готовность президента Дональда Трампа пойти на выполнение ряда положений проекта нового военного бюджета. Например, положения о проведении независимого исследования политики неприменения ядерного оружия в первом ударе. Разумеется, речь идет не об отказе от проведения исследования на эту тему, а об отказе от концепции применения ядерного оружия в таком ударе. Это противоречило бы действующей национальной ядерной стратегии, принятой в феврале 2018 года, которая на странице 22 однозначно запрещает подобный переход.
 
В контексте предложения бюджета рассмотреть возможности изучения ошибок и инцидентов, которые могли бы привести к ядерной войне, невероятно себе представить прекращение участия США в операции ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» в небе трех государств Балтии, в которой принимают участие самолеты-носители ядерного оружия всех трех ядерных держав Запада. А она должна быть прекращена в полном объеме как провокационная.
 
Сомнительной представляется формулировка об отказе от финансирования закупок и развертывания новых РСМД. Как следует ее воспринимать, если США и остальные страны-участницы НАТО уже отказались поддержать предложение Москвы о взаимном моратории  на развертывание подобных систем в тех регионах, где их нет в настоящее время?
 
Кроме того, Пентагон намерен продолжать испытания РСМД, конечным итогом которых может стать развертывание новых ракет средней дальности США в Европе и Азии. Об этом говорит тот факт, что 12 декабря этого года с военной базы США «Ванденберг»  (Калифорния)  был произведен второй и вновь успешный запуск ракеты средней дальности наземного базирования, которая подпадает под терминологические определения Договора о ликвидации РСМД, из которого Вашингтон вышел в одностороннем порядке в начале августа этого года.
 
Была вновь испытана ракета средней дальности, которая однозначно попадала бы под ограничения ДРСМД. На сей раз это была баллистическая ракета. Проведенный тест лишний раз доказывает, что США имели совершенно иные основания для его односторонней денонсации, чем те, на которые они указывали. Подлинная причина такого шага была и остается очевидной: это создание новых ракет средней дальности в ядерном снаряжении. Как показало первое подобное испытание американской крылатой ракеты средней дальности класса «Томагавк», проведенное спустя 16 дней после выхода Вашингтона из ДРСМД, в Пентагоне готовы продолжать подобные испытания. Об этом прямо заявил официальный представитель американского Министерства обороны подполковник Роберт Карвер после ракетного эксперимента 12 декабря.
 
Следует напомнить, что за последние 20 лет еще до разрыва ДРСМД Соединенные Штаты во время проведения испытаний ракет-перехватчиков системы ПРО параллельно отработали перехват 117 ракет-мишеней средней и меньшей дальности шести типов, которые однозначно запрещались ДРСМД.
 
По словам председателя комиссии Совета Федерации по информационной политике Алексея Пушкова, «Испытание США баллистической ракеты средней дальности, к которому они готовились задолго до выхода из ДРСМД, может стать «чёрной датой» для Европы, если за этим последует размещение ракет США на континенте». Такое событие вполне может состояться. Один их западных социологических центров уже провел опрос общественного мнения среди граждан восьми стран-членов НАТО на предмет выявления их отношения к размещению ядерного оружия.
 
Проект нового бюджета Пентагона содержит намеки на денонсацию американской стороной Договора СНВ-3 и Договора по открытому небу.
 
Этот бюджет закладывает солидные средства для расширенного противодействия России и КНР, что вступает в противоречие со словесной «заинтересованностью» Вашингтона развивать отношения с ними. Странно, что в военном бюджете Пентагона затронута проблематика введения новых незаконных экономических санкций против России за ее «газовые потоки» в Европу, а также российская политика в отношении Крыма, то есть в отношении неотъемлемой российской же территории.
 
Повышенное выделение ассигнований Украине на приобретение боевых «смертоносных вооружений» США (на сумму 300 млн. долларов, что на 50 млн. долларов больше, чем в прошлогодний период) создает реальные препятствия на пути реализации Минских соглашений и договоренностей  «нормандского формата». Речь идет о поставке ВСУ крылатых и противокорабельных ракет. Подобные, а также ранее осуществленные поставки американских ударных вооружений Киеву ведут не к прекращению его масштабной и перманентной вооруженной агрессии против жителей Донбасса, а к ее поощрению на качественно более высоком уровне. Такая ситуация в негативном ключе сказывается на военно-политической обстановке в Европе в целом.
 
Итак, нынешняя республиканская администрация США продолжает курс на милитаризацию своей экономики и проецирование военной мощи в глобальном масштабе, а также политику достижения превосходства в космическом пространстве. Как свидетельствуют официальные документы Пентагона, в будущем намечено перспективное наращивание военного бюджета США. В «Зеленой книге» американского военного ведомства о перспективных расходах на военные цели, которая вышла в мае этого года, предусматривается дальнейшее повышение их военных ассигнований в ближайшие пять лет.

Автор: В.П. Козин, Источник: «ИнфоРос»

О презентации двух новых монографий В.П. Козина

 
14 декабря 2019 года член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН, ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин принял участие в VII ежегодной встрече членов Клуба Горчакова, на которой он представил две свои новые монографии, вышедшие в текущем году: «Эволюция стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений США и особенности их применения в XXI веке» (М.: 2019. 1080 стр.) и на английском языке: «U.S. Military Space Policy: Key Guidelines and Future Capabilities» (М.: 2019. 312 рр.).
 
В своем выступлении он отметил, что в монографии по проблематике американских ядерных вооружений подробно исследуются процессы разработки, создания и развертывания американских стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений в глобальном масштабе в увязке с современными ядерными доктринами США. Значительный упор делается на выявлении особенностей модернизации этого вида оружия в виде стратегической ядерной триады нового поколения, которая может просуществовать вплоть до 2080-2095 годов. Выявляются особенности модернизации тактических ядерных вооружений США в Европе и их новых средств доставки в виде истребителей-бомбардировщиков F-35.
 
В книге анализируются современные американские ядерные и иные военно-стратегические установки, в том числе о применении ядерного оружия, использовании противоракетных систем и других видов вооружений.
 
Рассматриваются проблемы, с которыми могут столкнуться будущие переговоры по дальнейшему сокращению СНВ, в частности, в увязке с решением проблемы введения ограничений на противоракетные средства и силы общего назначения. Излагаются особенности нарушений американской стороной ДСНВ и ДРСМД, а также ее негативного отношения к целому ряду договорных актов в сфере контроля над вооружениями.
 
В представленном издании в критическом ключе рассмотрены различные предложения по ограничению СНВ и ТЯО, выдвигаемые отдельными зарубежными экспертами.
 
Исследуется позиция Вашингтона о возможности построения безъядерного мира в глобальном масштабе; выявляются объективные препятствия, которые возникают на этом пути.
 
Затронув субстантивную часть второй монографии, которая касается военной космической политики администрации Дональда Трампа, ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ сообщил, что в этом издании основной упор сделан на анализе национальной Космической стратегии США 2018 года, а также ключевых положений основополагающих документов Пентагона и Белого дома о будущей военной космической стратегии Вашингтона в долгосрочной перспективе. Описываются функциональные особенности деятельности создаваемых Космических сил Соединенных Штатов, которые рассматривают космическое пространство в качестве сферы ведения боевых операций. В книге проанализированы существующие и перспективные разведывательно-информационные и ударно-боевые потенциалы, которые составят основу таких сил.
Особое внимание уделено развертыванию в космосе американских противоспутниковых систем класса «космос-космос» и ударно-боевых систем класса «космос-поверхность». Новое издание содержит большое количество фактов, связанных с испытаниями в интересах Пентагона беспилотной многофункциональной автономной космической платформы длительного многоразового использования «Х-37-В».
 
Проведенный анализ в критическом плане увязывается со стратегическими установками Соединенных Штатов, принятыми в период президентства Дональда Трампа. Обращено внимание на главное кредо нынешней администрации в использовании космоса в военных целях в качестве единственно доминирующей космической державы: «США должны быть первыми среди звезд», даже не считаясь со своими союзниками по НАТО, которые в принципе договорились о взаимодействии с ними в продолжении военного «освоения» космоса.
 
Для сравнения российских и американских подходов к проблеме неразмещения оружия в космическом пространстве в монографию включена глава, которая излагает долговременную политику России в данной сфере.
 
В приложении помещены новые документы внешней политики США по космической проблематике, которые введены в научный оборот впервые.
 
Указанные издания были переданы в дар Фонду имени Горчакова.
 
По завершении презентации В.П. Козин ответил на многочисленные вопросы аудитории.

О фальсификации военной политики России в США и НАТО

Выступление ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ В.П. Козина на круглом столе в рамках Международного военно-технического форума "Армия-2020"

Наряду с активной фальсификацией начала, хода и итогов Второй мировой войны ведущие страны-члены Североатлантического союза во главе с США прибегают к искажению современной военной политики России, преследуя далеко идущие и деструктивные цели. 

1. Цели с внешними и внутренними последствиями

Информационные нападки на современную военную политику России со стороны ведущих стран Запада и их сателлитов имеют внешние и внутренние последствия.

Цели с внешними последствиями предполагают создание в мире устойчивого искаженного представления о Российской Федерации как о стране, мол, приблизившей свои военные потенциалы к государствам трансатлантического альянса, нарушающей международные обязательства в области контроля над вооружениями, а также стремящейся развязать локальную и даже глобальную ядерную войну.

Цели с внешними последствиями также предполагают перманентное сохранение образа России на международной арене в трех проявлениях: в качестве «противника, агрессора и аннексора». Ни в одном официальном документе США и НАТО нет таких терминов, как «партнер» или «коллега» применительно к Российской Федерации, но зато повсеместно употребляются все три названных ярлыка. Такими необоснованными характеристиками ведущие страны Запада и их союзники оправдывают свои собственные масштабные военные приготовления, имеющие антироссийскую направленность, а также размещение вблизи территории России значительных комбинированных военно-силовых потенциалов передового базирования.

Цели с внутренними последствиями ориентированы на выработку у граждан Российской Федерации и ее союзников комплекса неполноценности и неуверенности в том, что ее Вооруженные Силы смогут в полном объеме обеспечить обороноспособность и национальную безопасность российского государства, а также безопасность и суверенитет ее союзников и друзей. Названные цели преследуют культивирование у отдельных несведущих граждан страны негативного отношения к военным расходам России и мотивам модернизации ее Вооруженных Сил.

При этом не учитывается, что в 2024 финансовом году администрация Дональда Трампа предлагает израсходовать на военные цели 796,2 млрд. долларов. Она же подтвердила готовность выделить на создание новой «триллионной» стратегической ядерной триады в ближайшие 30 лет от 1,2 трлн. долларов (в неизменных ценах) до 1,7 трлн. долларов (в ценах с учетом предполагаемой инфляции). Ни одно другое государство в мире не может позволить себе расходовать столь огромные денежные средства на военные нужды.

2. Основные обвинения Запада в адрес военной политики России

Соединенные Штаты и НАТО используют широкий спектр приемов по искажению военной политики России.

Основными из них являются: целенаправленное распространение лживой информации о неких «нарушениях» российской стороной договорных актов в области сокращения вооружений и ограничения военной деятельности, искаженная интерпретация ядерной доктрины Российской Федерации и резкая критика новых видов перспективных российских вооружений.

Повышенная активность на этом направлении стала особенно заметной при нынешней республиканской администрации в США.

Для этого созданы новые пропагандистские организационно-штатные структуры. В этом году в Государственном департаменте США создан специальный Интернет-ресурс, на котором размещаются негативные информационно-пропагандистские материалы, искажающие военную политику России и ее подход к контролю над вооружениями. К их подготовке привлекаются руководители американского внешнеполитического ведомства, курирующие проблематику глобальной безопасности и контроль над вооружениями. К сожалению, пока только одно подразделение в  гражданском ВУЗе в России критически и предметно реагирует на такие публикации.

С целью отвлечения от своих глобальных комбинированных военных приготовлений администрация Дональда Трампа запустила инициативу: «Формирование обстановки для ядерного разоружения» или сокращенно по-английски «CEND». Американские дипломаты разъясняют, что ключевая цель этой инициативы состоит в улучшении «условий» для обеспечения глобальной безопасности. Но каким образом Вашингтон будет создавать подобные «условия», там затрудняются объяснить.

На этом направлении укреплена кадровая составляющая. Дональд Трамп назначил на ключевые посты в военном и во внешнеполитическом ведомствах страны лиц, которые по своим убеждениям являются твердыми «ястребами», активно и целенаправленно распространяющими небылицы о российской военной политике. Это: министр обороны Марк Эспер и заместитель председателя Объединенного комитета начальников штабов генерал Джон Хайтен, специальный представитель президента по контролю над вооружениями Маршалл Биллингсли, заместитель государственного секретаря по оборонной политике Бюро по контролю над вооружениями, контролю и соблюдению договоров внешнеполитического ведомства Томас ДиНанно, заместитель государственного секретаря по вопросам международной безопасности и нераспространения Кристофер Форд и ряд других.

Обвинения Вашингтона в адрес России в части, касающейся ее «нарушений» договоров в области контроля над вооружениями, сводятся к  недоказанным до сих пор обвинениям в «несоблюдении» Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, а также в «нарушении» российской стороной Договора по открытому небу в основном применительно к Калининградской области.[1] В последнее время к ним американская сторона добавила «несоблюдение» российской стороной Конвенции о запрещении химического оружия, Договора об обычных вооруженных силах в Европе и нарушение «президентских инициатив» 1991-1992 годов Джорджа Буша-старшего и Михаила Горбачева. [2]

Упоминавшийся Маршалл Биллингсли, назначенный на эту должность в апреле 2020 года, сделал ряд публичных заявлений, в которых он бездоказательно обвинил Россию в нарушении, как он выразился, «почти всех договоров» в области контроля над вооружениями, подписанных ранее с американской стороной, а также «в понижении порога применения ядерного оружия».

3. Реальности нарушений Вашингтоном договоров по контролю над вооружениями

Реальность, связанная с ДРСМД, заключается в том, что за последние 20 лет до выхода Вашингтона из него год назад Пентагон при проверке эффективности ракет-перехватчиков системы ПРО использовал 117 учебных ракет средней и меньшей дальности шести типов в качестве объектов их реального перехвата ракетами-перехватчиками. Иными словами, столько же раз нарушил этот договор. Такие испытания прошли в период с октября 1999 года по август 2019 года. Все эти случаи отражены в пресс-релизах Управления по ПРО Министерства обороны США и в двух докладах по противоракетной проблематике Исследовательской службы американского Конгресса, вышедших в декабре 2018 года и в феврале 2019 года.

Что же касается «нарушения» российской стороной Договора по открытому небу применительно к Калининградской области, то в тексте договора имеется положение, которое разрешает любой его стране-участнице вводить ограничения на полеты зарубежных инспекционных групп в зонах интенсивного воздушного движения пассажирских судов гражданской авиации. В данном случае это положение распространяется на полетную зону аэропорта «Храброво» – единственного в этом российском эксклаве гражданского аэродрома внутрироссийского и международного значения.

С другой стороны, США неоднократно нарушали договорный акт по открытому небу, запрещая российским самолетам с инспекторами на борту осуществлять пролеты над территорией Аляски и Гавайских островов, где размещены ударные и информационно-разведывательные средства американского глобального «противоракетного щита».

Причастность России к «нарушению» КЗХО увязана Соединенными Штатами и НАТО в целом в связи с отравлениями отца и дочери Скрипалей в Солсбери в 2018 году неким нервно-паралитическим отравляющим веществом «Новичок», который в России не производится. С другой стороны, именно Вашингтон в нарушение КЗХО не раз снабжал террористов, действующих на сирийской территории, некоторыми видами боевых отравляющих веществ, а также приостановил ликвидацию остающихся огромных запасов собственного химического оружия, несмотря на ранее взятые на себя обязательства.

 Российская Федерация полностью выполнила «президентские инициативы» 1991–1992 годов: она добровольно, вне всякого переговорного процесса, на три четверти сократила количество тактических ядерных боезарядов. С другой стороны, США нарушили дух этих инициатив, оставляя в Европе и азиатской части Турции свое ядерное оружие вот уже почти 70 лет.

Американская сторона и остальные участники ДОВСЕ, входящие в НАТО, вообще отказались ратифицировать его адаптированный вариант ДОВСЕ 1А в отличие от России, которая сделала это. Именно по вине его западных участников эта договоренность так и не стала реальностью.

С российской стороны много говорится, что США в одностороннем порядке вышли из иранской ядерной сделки, денонсировали международный Договор о торговле оружием, объявили о готовности выйти из Договора по открытому небу, отказались ратифицировать Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний и проявляют нежелание продлить срок действия Договор СНВ-3.

Но недостаточно указывается, что администрация Дональда Трампа не желает распространить положения российско-американского Соглашения о предотвращении инцидентов в открытом море за внешним пределом территориальных вод и в воздушном пространстве над ним на подводные лодки сторон, находящиеся в подводном положении. Россия уже дважды безуспешно ставила этот вопрос перед Вашингтоном. Он также не хочет слышать о возможности подписания Договора о европейской безопасности и Договора о предотвращении размещения оружия в космосе, оба полновесных проекта которых уже давно подготовлены и доведены до мировой общественности.

По вине Соединенных Штатов и остальных участников Организации Североатлантического договора уже длительное время не решаются три актуальных вопроса обеспечения безопасности в балтийском регионе, хотя они активно педалировались в НАТО. Трансатлантический альянс отказался решать: 1) «транспондерную» проблему, раздутую с помощью президента Финляндии; 2) договариваться о взаимном отказе от сближения военных самолетов и боевых кораблей России и НАТО в районе Балтики; 3) условиться о разделении военных учений российских и натовских вооруженных сил на согласованную глубину.

Этот список вполне дает основания включить нынешнего президента США Дональда Трампа в «Книгу рекордов Гиннесса». Поскольку ни один американский президент не разрушил столько международных договоренностей в области контроля над вооружениями, сколько сделал нынешний республиканский президент только за первый четырехлетний срок своего правления.

В прошлом году Дональд Трамп выдвинул идею-призыв проявления «нового» похода к проблеме контроля над вооружениями. Но ни он, ни его «специалисты по контролю над вооружениями» так и не смогли разъяснить эту инициативу. Очевидно, что она была вброшена Вашингтоном с целью информационно-пропагандистского прикрытия им планов по заведению процесса контроля над вооружениями в глухой тупик.

Следует постоянно обращать внимание мировой общественности на негативное отношение Соединенных Штатов к 13 проблемам в сфере контроля над вооружениями, в том числе к шести проблемам, которые имеют прямое или косвенное отношение к ядерному оружию.

4. Нападки на ядерную доктрину России: их особенности и главная цель

Ядерная доктрина СССР, а теперь и России – это объект постоянных нападок США и НАТО. Цель таких выпадов – скрыть опасный наступательный и агрессивный характер ядерной стратегии Соединенных Штатов и НАТО не только применительно к России и КНР, но и для международного мира и глобальной безопасности в целом. [3]

Ложными утверждениями о ядерной доктрине России являются заявления о том, что она, якобы, имеет положение «эскалация с целью деэскалации» (escalation to de-escalation), в которую на Западе вкладывают два значения. [4] Это – эскалация применения ядерного оружия с целью деэскалации региональных конфликтов, ведущихся с использованием неядерных средств, а также эскалация угрозы применения ядерного оружия с целью «продавливания» договоренностей в области сокращения ракетно-ядерных вооружений. Но в российской ядерной доктрине нет таких положений.

После длительного перерыва тема обсуждения некоей будущей договоренности по тактическому ядерному оружию с Россией вновь зазвучала в заявлениях США и НАТО, но, как всегда, без детализации. Но, как и прежде, эти призывы не предусматривают вывода таких американских вооружений из Европы, где они уже находятся свыше 70 лет. [5] Одновременно в западных политических кругах и в экспертном сообществе по-прежнему распространяется слух о намерении России применить ТЯО против целой группы государств, входящих в НАТО, якобы, с целью защиты там русскоязычного населения. За последние несколько лет научно-исследовательские центры в странах альянса подготовили несколько сценариев на эту тему.

Такие утверждения Вашингтога дополнились новацией о якобы готовности российской стороны применять ядерные боезаряды малой мощности. Но в российской ядерной доктрине подобные положения также отсутствуют.

Но, с другой стороны, все три вышеназванные ядерные установки имеются в ныне действующей ядерной стратегии, утвержденной администрацией Дональда Трампа в 2018 году. Кроме того, Соединенные Штаты придерживаются еще ряда существенных положений, связанных с ядерным оружием и оказывающих прямое негативное воздействие на стратегическую стабильность в мире.

Затрагивая тему «понижения порога применения ядерного оружия» российской стороной, Вашингтон не приводит никаких конкретных доказательств по этому поводу. Подобных фактов просто нет. Их нет ни в «ядерном разделе» действующей с декабря 2014 года Военной доктрины России, ни в Основах ее государственной политики в области ядерного сдерживания, одобренных в июне 2020 года.

С другой стороны, действующая американская ядерная стратегия действительно понизила порог применения ядерного оружия. Эта ядерная стратегия имеет 14 оснований применения ядерного оружия, часть из которых включает нарочито составленные туманные формулировки, которые позволяют американским ядерным силам нанести первый ядерный удар, в частности, в случае неких «технологических прорывов» или «неожиданных вызовов», или «многочисленных будущих рисков и неопределенностей». [6] Этот показатель необходимо активно доводить до мировой общественности. Для сравнения: администрация президента Барака Обамы включала в свою ядерную стратегию шесть оснований для применения ядерного оружия.

О понижении порога применения ядерного оружия Соединенными Штатами также говорит тот факт, что они уже установили ядерные боезаряды малой мощности W76-2 на ПЛАРБ «Теннесси» (SSBN 774), которая уже выходила с ними на боевое патрулирование в Мировой океан. По предварительным оценкам, такие боезаряды могут быть установлены на всех остальных ПЛАРБ типа «Огайо», а также на новые подводные ракетоносцы проекта  «Колумбия» (SSBN 826).

Ядерные силы США стратегического и тактического придерживаются стратегии «расширенного ядерного сдерживания» («extended nuclear deterrence»), то есть стратегии о раскрытии американского «ядерного зонтика» над всеми союзниками по НАТО и над внеблоковыми сателлитами США: Австралией, Израилем, Южной Кореей и Японией.

Кроме того, американские ядерные силы имеют установку на нанесение ядерного удара в соответствии с концепцией «запуск по предупреждению» («launch-on-warning»), а также применение ядерного оружия «до пуска» ракетных средств противника («launch-prior-to launch»). В них не делается такой важной оговорки, что это может произойти только после получения достоверной информации.

Соединенные Штаты являются единственным государством в мире, которое имеет со своими союзниками по НАТО «соглашения о разделении ядерной ответственности» или «соглашения о совместных ядерных миссиях» («nuclear sharing agreements»), в ходе реализации которых отрабатываются приемы использования ядерного оружия воздушного базирования, в том числе государствами-членами альянса, не имеющими американского ядерного оружия на своей территории.

Соединенные Штаты являются единственным государством в мире, которое имеет за своими пределами на постоянной основе тактическое ядерное оружие и авиационные средства его доставки. Оно уже около 70 лет складировано в четырех странах Европы (Бельгия, Италия, Нидерланды и ФРГ), а также в азиатской части Турции.

Соединенные Штаты и их два ядерных союзника Великобритания и Франция являются единственными государствами в мире, которые имеют на постоянной основе авиационные средства «двойного назначения», в том числе  для доставки ядерного оружия, задействованные в рамках операции ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование». В ней используются четыре типа самолетов «двойного назначения» блока, то есть способных нести на борту обычные и ядерные авиабомбы.

Такая операция проводится в небе Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии уже в течение последних 16 лет круглосуточно и круглогодично с использованием авиабаз названных государств, соответственно, Лиелварде, Зокняй и Эмари. Недавно в ее зону действия вошла и Польша. Очевидно, что в этой связи надо более решительно и последовательно ставить вопрос о полном прекращении этой провокационной операции перед всеми пятнадцатью государствами трансатлантического альянса, которые предоставляют свои боевые самолеты и военные аэродромы при ее проведении. Особое требование о ее прекращении должно быть направлено всем трем западным ядерным державам – Великобритании, США и Франции. Они слишком близко подобрались к российской территории.

Необходимо также обращать внимание европейской общественности на то, что несколько европейских государств, уже давно стали получать новый истребитель-бомбардировщик американского производства F-35A, сертифицированный под доставку высокоточных корректируемых ядерных авиабомб нового поколения В-61-12.

В интересах пропагандистского обеспечения такой акции на европейском континенте нынешнее американское военно-политическое руководство и его союзники по НАТО ведут среди общественного мнения европейских государств целенаправленную информационно-пропагандистскую кампанию. Ее особенность заключается в том, что они допускают критические суждения в общественно-политических кругах против развязывания тотальной ядерной войны, но одновременно глушат голоса протеста против планов развертывания новых американских ракетно-ядерных систем средней дальности, например, в Европе.

Все перечисленные американские доктринальные установки нанизываются на незыблемый постулат, существующий со времени создания и применения ядерного оружия Соединенными Штатами в 1945 году. В соответствии с ним оно может использоваться в первом превентивном ударе (по небольшому количеству целей) и в первом упреждающем ударе (по значительному количеству целей). Такое положение Пентагон намерен сохранить на неопределенный срок. Как записано в их ядерной стратегии: «США никогда не соглашались взять обязательство о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе; такая политика в настоящее время является неоправданной». [7]

Следует в данном контексте напомнить, что после применения ядерного оружия против Хиросимы и Нагасаки американское военно-политическое руководство намеревалось использовать ядерное оружие в семи случаях: во периоды драматического противостояния между Востоком и Западом (во время Карибского и Берлинского кризисов), а также в ряде региональных конфликтов, где были активно задействованы американские вооруженные силы. 

Изложенные особенности нынешней американской ядерной стратегии позволяют однозначно квалифицировать ее как «безусловное наступательное ядерное сдерживание», что радикально отличает ее от российской ядерной доктрины, которая в лапидарном виде может быть охарактеризована как «условное оборонительное ядерное сдерживание». Приведенная формулировка нынешней ядерной стратегии США как «безусловное наступательное ядерное сдерживание» должна стать достоянием мировой общественности. Она сама говорит за себя.

В последнее время в западных политологических кругах стала распространятся предложение о том, чтобы Россия в одностороннем порядке заявила о готовности полностью уничтожить свое ядерное оружие в одностороннем порядке «в качестве примера доброй воли другим государствам, обладающим ядерным оружием». 6 августа 2020 года в сети «Ютьюб» с нашей стороны был дан негативный ответ на такую инициативу, реализация которая привела бы к серьезному подрыву национальной безопасности России в условиях сохранения ядерного оружия у ядерной тройки НАТО, а также его широкой модернизации в  американских ядерных силах.

Критические замечания в адрес ядерной стратегии США изложены в подготовленных в ЦВПИ двух монографиях: «Эволюция стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений США и особенности их применения в XXI веке», которые вышли на русском и английском языках в 2019 и 2020 годах (объемом в1080 и 1280 страниц, соответственно). 

5. Отношение США к Договору СНВ-3

По состоянию на август 2020 года Белый дом не проявил готовности зафиксировать договоренность о продлении Договора СНВ-3 на какой-то срок. Вашингтон не снял свое предложение о подключении КНР к переговорному российско-американскому процессу о сокращении СНВ. [8] США не хотят фиксировать органическую связь между наступательными и оборонительными вооружениями сторон. Администрация Дональда Трампа проигнорировала предложение России провести встречу юристов сторон с целью обмена мнениями об интерпретации отдельных положений Договора СНВ-3. [9] У американской стороны имеется ложное представление о том, что его продление для России важно добиться любой ценой.

Вашингтон энергично заявляет о том, что все российские перспективные виды вооружений, называемые на Западе «экзотическими», подпадают под ограничения Договора СНВ-3. К сожалению, в России нашлись сторонники включения в повестку дня переговоров с американской стороной гиперзвукового планирующего боевого блока (ГППБ) «Авангард», не имеющего аналогов в мире, а также еще не принятой на вооружение перспективной российской МБР «Сармат».

До обнародования официальной позиции Белого дома самим Дональдом Трампом по поводу пролонгации Договора СНВ-3 изложение российской позиции по поводу распространения его положений на обозначенные две системы вооружений представляется преждевременным и недальновидным. Как только некоторые российские официальные и неофициальные представители сделали в СМИ заявления о возможности распространения положений Договора СНВ-3 на названные системы вооружений, американские контрагенты моментально поспешили ограничить положениями этого договорного акта еще четыре вида перспективных вооружений России, о которых говорил в своем Послании Федеральному Собранию Президент страны в марте 2018 года. То есть, на «Кинжал», «Буревестник», «Посейдон» и «Пересвет». В последнее время к этому списку американская сторона добавила гиперзвуковую ракету «Циркон».

На состоявшихся в 17-18 августа 2020 года в Вене очередных российско-американских консультациях по стратегической стабильности делегация США вновь настаивала на том, чтобы «новые российские виды вооружений» были включены в некие будующие договооренности с США, которые не охвачены Договором СНВ-3. Вашингтон явно не хочет допустить появления семи названных новаторских систем вооружений России. Но ему категорически нельзя идти навстречу в этом вопросе. У американской стороны ложное представлениями о том, что его продление для России важно добиться любой ценой.[10]

Шесть видов перспективных вооружений России вообще не упомянуты в этом договоре. В нем, например, нет термина «гиперзвуковые планирующие боевые блоки». МБР «Сармат» может быть обсуждена с Вашингтоном только после завершения всех ее испытаний и принятия ее на вооружение с пристыкованными ядерными боезарядами, а также в увязке с новой МБР Минитмен-4, то есть исключительно на взаимной и паритетной основе с сопоставимыми ракетами США. [11]

Диалога с Вашингтоном по новым российским системам гиперзвукового оружия не может быть без комплексного обсуждения аналогичных американских проектов, четко заявил РИА Новости 17 апреля 2020 года заместитель министра иностранных дел Сергей Рябков, уточнив, что также необходимо обсуждение проблематики создания глобальной системы ПРО США, размещения оружия в космосе и ряда других программ, которые дестабилизируют стратегическую ситуацию. «Это альфа и омега нашего подхода вообще к работе в сфере контроля над вооружениями», заявил заместитель главы российского дипломатического ведомства, курирующий проблематику контроля над вооружениями и отношения России с США.[12] Такая позиция должна поддерживаться всеми официальными и неофициальными российскими представителями.

Про мнению двух компетентных американских экспертов, изложенных в конце 2019 года, а именно Эрика Эдельмана, который в 2005-2009 годы занимал должность заместителя министра обороны США по политическим вопросам, и Франклина Миллера, в 2001-2005 годы работавшего в качестве старшего директора по вопросам оборонной политики и контроля над вооружениями в Совете национальной безопасности страны, новые перспективные виды российских вооружений не ограничиваются Договором СНВ-3, хотя и представляют собой прямую угрозу континентальной части Соединенных Штатов. Это же обстоятельство признал авторитетный в западном военно-политическом экспертном сообществе еженедельник «Джейнс дифенс уикли» в январе 2020 года. [13]

Известно, что Государственному департаменту, Министерству обороны и разведывательному сообществу США предписано активно продвигать подобную позицию в отношении семи новых российских перспективных видов вооружений, добиваясь введения в их отношении количественных ограничений, их полного уничтожения или полного отказа от производства. Но, как случалось ранее, ничего взамен России американская сторона пока не предложила. Очевидно, вытягивает для себя солидные уступки. [14] Реагируя на это, Москва допускает вариант непродления этого договора. [15]

Надо дождаться изложения Дональдом Трампом его детального подхода к возможному продлению Договора СНВ-3. Было бы весьма интересным услышать от него: какие варианты ограничений он предложит для американского гиперзвукового оружия и ракетно-ядерных систем нового поколения, а также какую рецептуру он пропишет для решения других вопросов, которые сказываются на стратегической стабильности и глобальной безопасности.

Следует также учитывать, что президент Дональд Трамп однажды публично заявил, что ни при каких обстоятельствах не будет обсуждать с Москвой противоракетную проблематику, а если с кем-то и будет, то только со своими союзниками по НАТО.

В этой связи Соединенные Штаты продолжают бесконтрольно развивать свою глобальную систему ПРО, делая упор на ее развертывании на передовых рубежах вблизи России и КНР, а также на повышени способности перехватывать МБР. Хотя новые российские ударные системы преодоления системы ПРО США уже названы и против них в Пентагоне до сих пор не найдено никаких средств противодействия, нельзя полностью игнорировать эту растущую угрозу. Исходящая от американской системы ПРО опасность кроется в значительном количестве ракет-перехватчиков наземного и морского базирования, расширении пространственной зоны ее развертывания и возможность установки в ее пусковых установках наступательных видов вооружений в виде КРНБ типа «Томагавк» и высокоточных гиперзвуковых систем вооружений, а также в перспективе – размещение ударных систем ПРО и противоспутниковых систем на космических орбитах. [16]

По указанным выше причинам операционные базы ПРО США в Румынии и Польше, являющиеся комбинированными объектами стратегического назначения с точки зрения интересов национальной безопасности Российской Федерации, должны быть полностью ликвидированы. Нужно активно и последовательно ставить перед Вашингтоном вопрос именно в такой плоскости.

Аналогичная возможность размещения различных сидов вооружений наступательного характера распространяется и на корабельные пусковые установки БИУС «Иждис» ВМС США, которые к 2042 году будут установлены приблизительно на их 90 боевых кораблях, что составит 25 процента от общего корабельного состава американского флота в 355 кораблей. [17]

Негативными, но бездоказательными являются высказывания высокопоставленных американских представителей относительно военной деятельности России в космическом пространстве. С целью противодействия информационного давления США на этом направлении в 2019 году выпущена монография на английском языке «Военно-космическая политика США: ключевые направления и будущие потенциалы» объемом 312 страниц.

6. Оценка уровня противодействия нападкам США и НАТО на военную политику России и практические предложения

Ведущие страны НАТО во главе с США практически никогда не прекращали голословную и целенаправленную критику военной политики России. Такая критика не только не сохранилась, но и заметно усилилась в последние годы.

Уровень такого противодействия с российской стороны остается высоким, но еще недостаточно широким и не всегда наступательным.

С одной стороны, активно и своевременно реагируют на попытки искажения действительности на этом направлении Министерство обороны и Министерство иностранных дел России, некоторые российские печатные и электронные издания, например, газета «Красная звезда», журнал «Зарубежное военное обозрение», журнал Академии военных наук России и некоторые другие. Но, с другой стороны, в российских гражданских академических кругах на этом направлении, за редким исключением, обозначилась неадекватная тенденция, которая проявляется в следуюшем.

Зачастую, если такая тематика и присутствует, то к чтению лекций по ней в российских гражданских ВУЗах привлекаются лица, слабо владеющие предметом исследования, или «эксперты», которые проповедуют западные представления о подходах к решению такой проблематики. За редким исключением, практически не издаются монографии по ракетно-ядерным стратегиям США, созданию ими качественно новой стратегической ядерной триады, развитию их глобальной системы ПРО и о военной космической политике Вашингтона.

На многочисленных конференциях и круглых столах редко можно услышать доклады по военно-политической проблематике, где в критическом ключе предметно и профессионально рассматривалась бы военная политика и ключевые военно-политические установки Соединенных Штатов и НАТО.

На многих телевизионных ток-шоу проблематика критики российской военной политики странами НАТО практически отсутствует или ее обсуждение носит ограниченный по охвату характер. Некоторые российские СМИ аккредитуются на саммитах трансатлантического альянса, но их итоговые репортажи неадекватно отражают принимаемые на них решения. Такое положение необходимо исправлять.

В России также есть свои собственные проблемы на этом направлении. Например, на одной представительной международной конференции, состоявшейся в 2019 году в Москве с целью обмена мнениями по актуальным проблемам современных международных отношений, вообще не нашлось место для обсуждения проблематики контроля над вооружениями, но в то же время были созданы около ста секций по рассмотрению многих других вопросов, многие из которых никак не относились к актуальной международной проблематике. На другой подобной международной конференции, также состоявшейся в 2019 году, такая актуальная проблема как соблюдение ДРСМД и выявление его нарушений Соединенными Штатами была сведена только к хорошо известным фактологическим составляющим этого договора: датам его подписании и ратификации, а также основным ограничительным параметрам. Но не слова не было сказано о проблемах его невыполнения американской стороной и об отрицательных международных последствиях такого шага.

Прозападно настроенные российские «эксперты» зачастую занимают почетные места в различных научных советах ВУЗов, в то время как специалистам, которые отстаивают национальные и оборонные интересы России, там не всегда найдется подобающее место. Им часто вообще не дают слова на дискуссиях, где затрагиваются современные военно-политические проблемы. Не всегда соблюдается принцип равного географического представительства выступающих с докладами на научно-практических форумах, куда приглашаются «эксперты» из стран, входящих в НАТО. Странно видеть картину, когда многие российские участники подобных дискуссий предпочитают не реагировать на явные ошибки или искаженные взгляды западных участников по проблематике военной политики России. Следует также пересмотреть практику направления в командировки в зарубежные страны научных сотрудников, которые не защищают российскую военную политику и не затрагивают позицию Москвы по контролю над вооружениями.

В России все еще существует порочная практика рецензирования публикаций пророссийски настроенных специалистов по военной политике США и НАТО анонимными прозападными российскими «специалистами»,  отрицательное мнение которых автоматически учитывается некоторыми редколлегиями российских политологических изданий. Цель таких методов – не допустить распространения объективной оценки военной политики трансатлантического альянса и Соединенных Штатов. А что касается анонимного рецензирования, то такой постыдной практике не должно быть место.

Из всего сказанного напрашивается вывод: необходимо активно противодействовать нападкам США и других стран НАТО на военную политику России. Часть практических предложений по отдельным направлениям военной политики США и НАТО была изложена выше.

Дополнительно к ним представляется целесообразным провести представительное межведомственное совещание с участием ключевых федеральных российских СМИ с рассмотрением вопросов противодействия необоснованной критике военной политики России,  ведущейся в США и НАТО.

Предлагаемые меры не потребуют от российской стороны особых финансовых затрат и значительных кадровых пополнений. Достаточно лишь проявить готовность и решимость действовать на этом направлении более энергично, профессионально и адекватно как в ответ на предпринимаемые нападки стран Запада в адрес военной политики России, так и в упреждающем режиме. Подобная линия может инициироваться и сверху, и снизу по всей вертикали исполнительной и законодательной власти, на официальном и неофициальном уровнях.

Гипертрофированный образ Российской Федерации как «военного врага всего мира» может быть усилен в еще большей степени. Неадекватное реагирование на это может иметь крайне нежелательные информационные последствия для России, ее союзников и друзей.

Автор: В.П. Козин

 

Ключевые слова: фальсификации военной политики Российской Федерации, информационная война, контрпропагандиская работа, США, НАТО, основания для применения ядерного оружия, ядерная стратегия, боезаряды малой мощности, система ПРО, Договор СНВ-3, контроль над вооружениями.

 

Источники и литература:

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Интервью заместителя Министра иностранных дел России С.А. Рябкова журналу «Международная жизнь». 2020. 20 апреля.

Козин В.П. Ключевые военные стратегии США: их национальные и глобальные последствия. Москва: Издательство им. Сабашниковых. 2020. 368 С.

Козин В.П. ДСНВ-4: три предварительных условия Вашингтона. Реальны ли они? //Сайт ЦВПИ МГИМО. 2020. 26 июня.

Козин В.П. В США принята «Оборонная космическая стратегия». Она содержит заявку на монопольное доминирование в космическом пространстве//Аналитическое агентство «Инфорос». 2020. 21 июня

Козин В.П. Российская великолепная шестерка. Москва ответит на попытки Вашингтона ее контролировать//Независимое военное обозрение. 2020. 5 июня.

Козин В.П. Эволюция стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений США и особенности их применения в XXI веке. Москва: Издательство им. Сабашниковых. 2019.1080 С. 

Козин В. Космическая политика США: претензия на доминирование с упором на силу//США и Канада: экономика, политика, культура. 2019. № 1. С. 24-43.

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Рябков заявил о невозможности возвращения к ДРСМД//Известия. 2020. 10 июля.

МИД назвал условие диалога с США по гиперзвуковому оружию//РИА Новости. 2020. 17 апреля.

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[1]  Ford C. The Politics of Arms Control: Getting Beyond Post-Cold War Pathologies and Finding Security in a Competitive Environment. Remarks. International Institute of Strategic Studies. London. The U.K. 2020 February 11//https://www.state.gov/the psychopolitics-of-arms-control/; Politics of Arms Control: Getting Beyond Post-Cold War Pathologies and Finding Security in a Competitive Environment. The Briefing with Senior State Department official on the New START. Washington: The State Department. 2020. March 9//https://www.state.gov/briefing-with-senior-state-department-official-on-the-new-start/; DiNanno Th. Remarks to 2019 Multinational Conference on Missile Defense. Dresden, Germany. 2019. October 29//https://www.state.gov/remarks-to-2019-multinational-conference-on-missile-defense/.

[2] Gottemoeller R. U.S.-Russia Nuclear Arms Control//The Foreign Service Journal. 2020. May. PP. 31-32.

[3]  При этом надо иметь в виду, что пять ключевых военный стратегий, одобренных в период президентства Дональда Трампа, а именно: Стратегия национальной безопасности, Стратегия национальной обороны, Национальная ядерная стратегия, Национальная противоракетная стратегия, а также Военно-космическая стратегия, Оборонительная космическая стратегия и Космическая мощь, имеют наступательный характер и ориентированы против России и КНР. См.: Kozin V. U.S. Key Military Strategies During D. Trump’s Presidency: Their Consequences for the USA and the World. Moscow: Sabashnikov’s Publishing House. 2020. 312 PP.

[4] Gertz B. Exclusive: Envoy says China is key to new arms deal with Russia//The Washington Times. 2020. May 7//https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/may/7/marshall-billingslea-says-new-start-fate-hangs-chi/.

[5] Военная доктрина Российской Федерации. Утверждена Президентом Российской Федерации 25 декабря 2014 года (указ № Пр-2976).

[6]  Выборка и подсчеты автора. Следует обратить внимание, что все перчисленные основания не изложены воедино в одном месте ядерной стратегии США, а  разбросаны по всему тексту, очевидно, с целью их информационного прикрытия.

[7] Woolf A. U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy: Considering “No First Use”//Congressional Research Service. Washington. 2019. March 1. PP. 1-2.

[8] Великобритания, КНР и Франция не выражают своего желания подключиться к таким переговорам. С другой стороны, позиция России о необходимости участия Франции и Великобритании в российско-американских межведомственных консультациях и в будущих переговорах по контролю над ядерными вооружениями не изменилась.

[9] Рябков: переговоры между Россией и США в Вене прошли интенсивно и энергично. Однако дипломат не видит сдвигов позиции США в сторону продления ДСНВ-3//ТАСС. 2020. 18 августа//https://tass.ru/politika/9229085.

[10]  Сергей Рябков: Шансы продлить ДСНВ невелики, но они не иссякли. Замглавы МИД РФ не согласился с мнением США о том, что России важно добиться продления любой ценой//Интефакс. 2020. 18 августа// https://www.interfax.ru/interview/722295.

[11] В этой связи примечательно мнение бывшего руководителя делегации США на переговорах с российской стороной по выработке Договора СНВ-3 Роуз Геттемюллер, которая признала, что МБР и БРПЛ, не имеющие пристыкованных ядерных боезарядов, не могут включаться в лимиты сокращений СНВ. Это в полной мере относится и к перспективной МБР «Сармат», которая еще не принята на вооружение. См.: Gottemoeller R. U.S.-Russia Nuclear Arms Control//The Foreign Service Journal. 2020. May. P. 31-32.

[12] МИД назвал условие диалога с США по гиперзвуковому оружию//РИА Новости. 2020. 17 апреля//https://ria.ru/20200417/1570165694.html?in=t; Интервью заместителя Министра иностранных дел России С.А. Рябкова журналу «Международная жизнь». 2020. 20 апреля//https://interaffairs.ru/news/show/26067.

[13]  Willet L. A new START?//Jane’s Defence Weekly. 2020. January 29. PP.22-23.

[14] State Department Releases New Paper on «Next Generation Arms Control». Arms Control and International Security Papers. Volume 1. Number 1. 2020. April 6 //https://www.armscontrol.org/blog/2020-04/us-russian-nuclear-arms-control-watch#story3; Kimball D.G. ACA Executive Director. A New Nuclear Deal Begins With New START. Arms Control Today. 2019. November // https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-11/focus/new-nuclear-deal-begins-new-start.

[15] Если США будут и дальше выдвигать «нереализуемые» условия продления Договора о стратегических наступательных вооружениях (ДСНВ), Россия позволит ему истечь. Об этом заявил глава МИД РФ Сергей Лавров, передает «Интерфакс»// Газета. Ru. 2020. 23 августа// https://www.gazeta.ru/politics/news/2020/08/23/n_14836537.shtml.

[16] Missile Defense Review. The U.S. Defense Department. Washington. 2019. February//P.I//https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Interactive/2018/11-2019-Missile-Defense-eview/The%202019%20MDR_Executive%20Summary.pdf. P. IX, 32; Wasserbly D. Pentagon kicks off crucial missile defense review// Jane’s Defence Weekly. 2019. May 17. P.11.

[17] С США в сфере ПРО взаимодействуют 19 из 30 государств-членов НАТО. См.:  Watts R. A Double-Edged Sword. Ballistic Missile Defense and US Alliances// Naval War College Review.  2020. Winter. P. 63.

 

О чём можно договариваться с Киевом?

 

"Кровавый комик" поставил Запорожскую АЭС на грань катастрофы

За последние месяцы мы уже привыкли к любым выходкам Украины и перестали им удивляться. Но обстрелы Запорожской АЭС – это уже что-то из ряда вон. То, что может грозить самыми трагическими последствиями для многих территорий, в том числе для тех, которые ещё контролируются киевским режимом.

Обстановка вокруг атомной электростанции накаляется с каждым днём. Сначала здесь крутились диверсанты, которых удалось отпугнуть. Затем артиллерия ВСУ начала бить по хранилищам отработанного топлива атомной станции. Позднее выяснилось, что там хранились ещё и обогащённый уран и плутоний. Если рванёт, то, как считают специалисты, ядерное облако может дойти до самого Киева.

Украине нравится держать весь мир в напряжении: грохнет или не грохнет?

Эту тему в программе "Царьград. Главное" ведущий Никита Комаров обсудил с членом-корреспондентом Академии военных наук России, ведущим экспертом МГИМО Владимиром Козиным.

Никита Комаров: – Они там что, совсем перестали воспринимать реальность? Какая у них мотивация?

Владимир Козин: – Мотивация у них простая. Во-первых, они с радостью держат в напряжении весь земной шар, особенно сопредельные государства.

А во-вторых, они рассчитывают таким образом выкурить оттуда Вооружённые силы России, которые в настоящее время обеспечивают работу Запорожской атомной электростанции, имея обычное стрелковое вооружение. Никаких дальнобойных систем у России там никогда не было и нет.

Главная цель – отправить наших бойцов подальше оттуда. Завести туда в рамках западной концепции демилитаризованной зоны украинские вооружённые силы, зарубежные, натовские формирования. И потом спокойно, уже без обстрелов, разрушать ЗАЭС, продолжая угрожать ядерной катастрофой всему земному шару.

Но в случае аварии пострадает, как подсчитали специалисты, даже не 9 сопредельных государств, а 11. Тут многое зависит от розы ветров, естественно. Поэтому это самая настоящая фашистская политика, не побоюсь этого выражения.

И я удивляюсь, что Международное агентство по атомной энергии и Генеральный секретарь Организации Объединённых Наций с марта этого года, когда мы только заговорили о международных инспекциях, палец о палец не ударили, чтобы эти инспекции направить.

Этот вопрос снова обсуждался 11 августа на чрезвычайном заседании Совбеза ООН. Но уважаемые господа Антониу Гутерриш и Рафаэль Гросси не определили хотя бы примерную дату направления инспекционной группы на Запорожскую АЭС.

И вообще, у меня сложилось впечатление, что под предлогом выражения озабоченности общего порядка оба эти джентльмена, международные чиновники очень высокого класса, стоят на стороне Киева, манкируя своими профессиональными обязанностями.

– Это, наверно, мало кого удивляет, но лишний раз демонстрирует всю деградацию ООН как организации и её неспособность управлять и воздействовать даже на элементарные процессы. На ваш взгляд, Киев в ситуации, складывающейся вокруг Запорожской АЭС, самостоятелен? Или слепо выполняет указания из Британии, из Вашингтона, несмотря на очевидную угрозу самой Украине?

В.К.: – Тут двойственная ситуация. С одной стороны, они самостоятельно используют оружие, полученное из разных источников. Они его самостоятельно наводят.

Но при этом они несамостоятельны, поскольку действуют по указаниям и директивным наставлениям из Вашингтона, из Лондона, из Парижа и всей остальной натовской камарильи – этого агрессивного военного союза.

Концепция Запада в "украинском кейсе" для нас совершенно неприемлема

– Владимир, какие у вас ожидания, какие прогнозы по итогам львовской встречи?

В.К.: – Мы не знаем, что говорили друг другу уважаемые джентльмены за закрытыми дверями переговорного процесса. Но можно сделать один вывод. Натовские государства – все, без исключения, как сказал сегодня генеральный секретарь НАТО Йенс Столтенберг, выступают за западную схему демилитаризации зоны Запорожской АЭС.

Мы уже рассказали, в чём суть этой западной концепции. Для Москвы она абсолютно неприемлема. В нашем представлении, демилитаризация ЗАЭС заключается в том, чтобы Украина полностью, раз и навсегда, прекратила обстрелы и Запорожской атомной электростанции, и других атомных электростанций, которые есть на территории Украины.

Надо создать зону, закрытую для полётов украинской авиации, которой осталось там совсем немного. Надо запретить размещение любых видов тяжёлого вооружения за 300 километров от ЗАЭС. И надо, наконец, определить точную дату визита инспекционной группы МАГАТЭ.

Причём почему именно Киев принимает решения о том, что делегация МАГАТЭ должна проследовать через украинскую территорию, которую не контролируют наши вооружённые силы? Россия вполне может доставить эту инспекционную группу в Запорожье, в Энергодар без особых проблем.

– Мне очень сложно представить, что Киев согласится и на демилитаризованную зону, и на отвод тяжёлых вооружений.

В.К.: – Не согласится. И Турция как верный член альянса обязана поддерживать общенатовскую позицию. Поэтому у меня не вызывает никаких сомнений, что Эрдоган после поездки на Украину будет пытаться доносить какие-то сигналы и просить Москву пойти навстречу, создать демилитаризованную зону по натовскому и украинскому сценарию.

Но Москва на это пойти не может. Это мина замедленного действия, это хуже, чем обстрелы. Если там не будет Вооружённых сил России, украинцы там смогут устроить всё что угодно, как они это делали весной на своей Чернобыльской АЭС, когда отключали там электроэнергию, что могло привести к самым печальным последствиям.

Если никакого иного решения не будет найдено, Запорожскую АЭС придётся остановить. А то, что решения не найдут, стало понятно после заседания Совбеза ООН, когда украинская сторона продолжила обстрелы Энергодара.

Источник: Царьград ТВ.

 

ОТРажение-3. Саммит НАТО. Визит Путина в Таджикистан. Идеология времени. Научный подход к парковкам

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе "ОТРажение" на телеканале ОТР

***

Саммит НАТО. В Мадриде начался саммит стран-участниц НАТО и кандидатов, на котором, как предупредили заранее, натовцы объявят Россию «прямой угрозой», а Китай – «системной».

Россия и Средняя Азия. Владимир Путин сегодня прилетел с рабочим визитом в Таджикистан. В ходе переговоров с президентом страны Эмомали Рахмоном он обсудит вопросы экономического, военно-стратегического сотрудничества, а также ситуацию в Афганистане, с территории которого совершают атаки на Таджикистан боевики.

Минтранс научит парковаться. Ударим наукой по заторам и разгильдяйству. Минтранс готовит научно обоснованные рекомендации по организации парковок не только в агломерациях, но и в малых городах и даже поселках, чтобы снизить загруженность дорог в пиковые часы, а также освободить дворы.

Воспитание без чувств. Возможно ли такое в принципе, этим вопросом задались на заседании президентского совета по защите детей. Никита Михалков был категоричен: без идеологии ни школа, ни урок истории невозможны, его коллега Карен Шахназаров подметил, что в свое время идеологические, воспитательные задачи успешно решало детское кино. Так какова идеология времени?

Не до книг? ВЦИОМ провел опрос и выяснил, что подавляющее большинство граждан посещает библиотеки раз в год. Чего удивляться, что теперь появилась такая услуга, как раздача списанных книг - тех, которые не были востребованы за последние десять лет. А вот в театры и на выставки ходить стали чаще. В чем причина - поговорим с экспертом.

Эфир от 28 июня 2022г.

 

Об итогах саммитов НАТО и ЕС

25 марта член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России В.П. Козин выступил с публичной лекцией по актуальным международным проблемам в АО «Государственный НИИ приборостроения».
 
В частности, основное внимание в выступлении было уделено итогам состоявшегося 24 марта саммита НАТО, который, по мнению военно-политического эксперта, имеет две ключевые особенности: он принял чрезмерно агрессивное и чрезвычайно лживое заявление. 
 
Чрезмерно агрессивное – по той причине, что названный документ закрепляет обещает дальнейшее развертывание комбинированных вооруженных сил альянса в зонах передового базирования в непосредственной близости от территории Российской Федерации, а также и обещает широкую военную поддержку преступному киевскому режиму. 
 
Иными словами, трансатлантический альянс подливает масло в огонь внутренней украинской агрессии против украинских граждан и намерен продлить ее как можно дольше. Североатлантический союз вновь подтвердил на мартовском саммите свое опасное амплуа – прямого и активного пособника такой агрессии и активатора украинского национализма.
 
Итоговое заявление глав государств и правительств является чрезвычайно лживым по целому ряду обстоятельств. 
Россия, как утверждается, не торгует людьми, и нет ни одного подобного задокументированного случая такой позорной акции. 
 
Москва не препятствует созданию и функционированию гуманитарных коридоров на Украине. Наоборот, российская сторона создает их больше, чем на словах в ходе переговоров «определяет» их Киев, а также во все направления, в отличие от украинской стороны, которая блокирует те пути, которые идут в сторону России и Беларуси. 
 
Россия не собирается и никогда не собиралась применять химическое и бактериологическое оружие на Украине – его просто нет у нее на вооружении. Но Киев уже не раз угрожал применить химические отравляющие вещества в виде промышленного аммиака и хлора. Киев совместно с США создал на украинской территории свыше 30 биоНИИ и биолабораторий, которые разрабатывали реальное смертоносное биологическое (бактериологическое) оружие, которое собирались применить.
 
В. П. Козин остановился на причинах начала специальной военной операции, особо остановившись на том факторе, что НАТО уже давно использовали Украину в качестве плацдарма для создания перманентной военной угрозы Российской Федерации и Белоруссии.
 
Он подверг критике Евросоюз, который, по его словам, фактически стал филиалом трансатлантического альянса после того, как принял решение о финансировании поставок смертоносных вооружений киевскому режиму для продолжения его агрессии против Донбасса на сумму до одного миллиарда евро, с той оговоркой, что эта сумма может быть увеличена из средств специального «Европейского фонда мира» объемом в 5,69 млрд. евро. 
 
Саммит ЕС утвердил стратегию в области обороны и безопасности под названием «Стратегический компас» сроком на десять лет. Документ призывает страны-участницы усилить развитие военно-промышленного комплекса и принимать участие в боевых операциях.
 
Евросоюз создал собственные Силы быстрого реагирования из 5 тысяч человек, которые будут участвовать в военных операциях совместно с аналогичными боевыми ударными структурами НАТО. 
 
Особое удивление вызывал тот факт, что за всю свою тридцатилетнюю историю Евросоюз, который на основании своих уставных документов является невоенной торгово-экономической ороганизацией, впервые принял подобные решения по военным вопросам, то есть фактически стал военным довеском Североатлантического союза. Немудрено: из 27 стран, входящих в ЕС, 21 государство одновременно является членом НАТО.
 
В принятом 25 марта заявлении саммита ЕС полностью повторяются лживые утверждения в адрес России по гуманитарным вопросам, которые содержались в упомянутом натовском итоговом заявлении от 24 марта. Как и в натовском документе, в нем не содержится ни одного критического слова в адрес Украины.
 
Сотрудник ЦВПИ ответил на многочисленные вопросы аудитории (в зале присутствовало свыше 200 человек).
 
 

Об особенностях и значении применения ракетного комплекса «Кинжал»

Утром 20 марта 2022 года в ходе официального брифинга представителя Министерства обороны Российской Федерации было заявлено о применении ракетного комплекса «Кинжал» для поражения склада боеприпасов в Ивано-Франковской области и базы хранения ГСМ в Николаевской области Украины. Позже данную информацию подтвердили представители Пентагона и ВСУ. Таким образом, это стало первым задокументированным боевым применением новейших российских ракет этого класса.

Во-первых, следует отметить, что в официальных заявлениях представителей министерств обороны России, Соединенных Штатов и Украины, сделанным с связи с применением «Кинжала», акцентировалось, что новая ракета использована по критически важным и, самое главное, обладающим высоким уровнем защиты, целям.

Склад боеприпасов в селе Делятин – это бывшее советское хранилище ядерных боезарядов и ракет, заглубленное в скалистой местности и дополнительно укрепленное многометровым слоем железобетона. В нем находились украинские авиационные средства поражения и боевые части для ракетных комплексов «Точка-У», которые уже неоднократно использовались против мирных граждан Донбасса.

Обычные ракеты, включая ранее примененную ракету «Калибр», не смогли бы единичным попаданием в объект уничтожить эту высокозащищенную цель. «Кинжал» – смог.

Второй момент. В настоящее время Россия проводит военную операцию не против международных террористических организаций, а против вооруженных сил Украины и слившихся с ними отрядами агрессивных неонационалистов, которые в различных военных рейтингах входили в первую пятерку лучших армий Европы. Кроме того, на украинской стороне действуют американские и европейские военные специалисты, использующие в режиме реального времени информацию национальных разведывательных структур, а также современные виды западных вооружений. В этих условиях Вооруженным Силам Российской Федерации представилась возможность провести испытания нового вооружения в условиях реального противодействия противника.

В-третьих, применение новейшего ракетного комплекса «Кинжал» осуществлено с учетом распространяемых сообщений о вероятной поставке на Украину из стран трансатлантического альянса комплексов ПВО от старой советской разработки до современных систем в виде С-300, находящихся на вооружении некоторых стран Европы.

Вполне очевидно, что, предвосхищая реализацию таких планов, военное руководство России уже вырабатывает эффективную тактику борьбы с зенитно-ракетными комплексами противника без ненужного риска для своей авиации. Высокие тактико-технические характеристики российских гиперзвуковых ракет по скорости и маневрированию гарантируют, что любые средства ПВО и ПРО, в том числе американского и европейского производства, вряд ли обеспечат их перехват.

В российском Министерстве обороны уточнили, что применение гиперзвуковой ракеты «Кинжал» осуществлялось с расстояния более 1000 километров, а время ее полета до цели составило менее 10 минут. Ракета была оснащена обычной боевой частью.

Можно предположить, что применение ракеты «Кинжал» по цели, обладающей наивысшей степенью защиты, пошлет ясный сигнал военно-политическому руководству США и их союзникам по НАТО, что Россия обладает эффективными средствами для уничтожения ключевых элементов системы государственного и военного управления противника – вне зависимости от их местоположения и инженерно-технической защищенности.

Следует отметить, что российское высокоточное гиперзвуковое оружие большой дальности подтвердило свою высокую надежность и эффективность при выводе из строя и уничтожении объектов военной промышленности и инфраструктуры Украины, которая уже три раза за последние восемь лет совершала вооруженные агрессии против граждан ДНР и ЛНР, в ходе которых были убиты свыше 14 тысяч мирных жителей. Ярчайшие тому примеры применения перспективных российских вооружений новых разработок – это успешные удары по Яворовскому полигону, Харьковскому тракторному заводу и базе хранения ГСМ в Николаевской области Украины.

Для уничтожения тактических целей в интересах обеспечения огневой поддержки наступательных действий войск, в массированных и сосредоточенных огневых ударах используются обычные средства огневого поражения. Они относительно дешевые, просты и их производство давно освоено, а их применение с помощью новейших прицельно-навигационных комплексов бомбардировочной авиации позволяет достичь повышенной точности, сопоставимой с высокоточным оружием, и исключить вероятные ошибки при нанесении ударов в густонаселенной местности, что было подтверждено еще в ходе военной антитеррористической операции в Сирийской Арабской Республике.

Немаловажно и то, что запасов таких средств в России хватит на многие годы потенциальных военных действий высокой интенсивности, если нашу страну вынудят прибегнуть к названным мерам для защиты ее национальных интересов и обеспечения стратегической стабильности.

Автор: В.П. Козин – член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России

Об отношении ряда миротворческих организаций Запада к агрессии Украины и НАТО против России

15 января ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ, член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН В.П. Козин принял участие в вебинаре, посвященном оценкам нынешней военно-политической ситуации на Украине. Организатор дискуссии – одна из канадских антивоенных организаций – просила не ссылаться на высказывания конкретных участников встречи по их имени и фамилии или на их НКО при анализе итогов проведенного мероприятия в открытых источниках информации.

Несмотря на то обстоятельство, что такая канадская НКО проецирует себя как антивоенная общественная структура, выступающая против продолжения «войны на Украине», ведущая предоставила основное время в ходе дискуссии в первую очередь двум выступающим от украинской стороны.

Призывая прекратить боевые действия на Украине, которые начались в результате «вторжения» российских войск в эту страну, эти лица делали упор на том, что именно Москва должна первой «вывести свои вооруженные контингенты с украинской территории», прекратить обстреливать «мирные города» Украины, которые, мол, в результате этого лишаются электроэнергии и водоснабжения, а также «артиллерийскую дуэль» в районе Запорожской АЭС, дескать, осуществляемую двумя сторонами.

Примечательно, что представители миротворческих НКО из США, Канады, Финляндии и ряда других государств никак не реагировали на подобные выпады, не подкрепленные никакими фактологическими выкладками. Главным образом выдвигались два основных предложения: на прекращение военных действий» по инициативе России и с особой эмоциональностью – на важность прекращения уничтожения систем электро- и водоснабжения.

В.П. Козин дал на эти необоснованные нападки соответствующие разъяснения, в частности, отметив следующие обстоятельства.

Используемые в  украинских СМИ, в России и во многих других государствах мира терминологические определения боевых действий на Украине как «война», «гражданская война», «война чужими руками» («proxy war») «конфликт», «кризис», а также некоторые другие не отражают сущности военных действий киевского руководства, ставя на одну доску «агрессора» (Украину) и «жертву агрессии» (Россию). В нынешних условиях для правильной оценки военных акций украинской стороны и стран Североатлантического союза наиболее приемлемой могла бы быть формулировка «агрессия Украины и НАТО против России». Термин «СВО» для квалификации вынужденных действий российской стороны на такую агрессию должен еще какое-то время оставаться неизменным.

Отметил, что при урегулировании возникшей по вине Киева и его соучастников из НАТО проблемы важно хронологически указать начало «агрессии Украины и НАТО против России».

По мнению В.П. Козина, она была инициирована киевским режимом 13 апреля 2014 года сначала против Донбасса, то есть после появления указа и.о. президента Украины Турчинова о начале неспровоцированной антитеррористической операции против Донбасса, который не осуществлял никаких «террористических акций» в отношении Украины и не пересекал свою административную границу с ее остальной частью. Этим указом за № 405/2014 тогдашний глава Украины постановил ввести в действие решение Совета национальной безопасности и обороны Украины от 13 апреля 2014 года «О неотложных мерах по преодолению террористической угрозы и сохранению территориальной целостности Украины». За этими громкими названиями скрывалось грубое нарушение Конституции Украины, согласно которой ее вооруженные силы не могут применяться внутри страны.

Против Российской Федерации такая агрессия также была без всяких веских оснований начата 14 февраля 2022 года, то есть за десять дней до объявления СВО. 

Обе такие формулировки одновременно должны быть усилены обвинениями в адрес киевского военно-политического руководства в проведении политики геноцида и совершении военных преступлений против мирных граждан и военнослужащих России.

Исходя из этого, считает ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ, именно Украина должна реально, повсеместно и первой прекратить огонь, а также обеспечить выполнение в короткие сроки, например, в течение двух месяцев,  следующие ключевые обязательства: осуществить демилитаризацию и денацификацию страны, прекратить гонения на Украинскую православную церковь и вернуть ей все захваченные храмы и приходы, а также провозгласить безъядерный и внеблоковый статус и подписать мирный договор с Россией, содержащий положение о признании ее новых границ с Украиной после вхождения в  состав Российской Федерации пяти новых территорий в 2014 и 2022 годы.

 

Об участии В.П. Козина в XII Конвенте РАМИ

 
Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО, член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН 22 октября В.П. Козин принял участие в дискуссии, состоявшейся в рамках XII Конвента РАМИ, на тему: «Мегатренды мировой политики XXI века».
 
Он предложил включить в список таких трендов, к которым некоторые политологи относят процессы глобализации, интеграции и демократизации, и такую широкую сферу мировой политики и международных отношений, как контроль над вооружениями (КНВ), которая в настоящее время подвергается серьезным испытаниям. Свою точку зрения он пояснил тем, что проблематика КНВ, несмотря на то, что она временами затрагивает узкий круг государств, может иметь глобальные измерения и оказывать либо позитивное, либо негативное воздействие на международную безопасность и стратегическую стабильность в мире: позитивное воздействие в случае успешного развития этого процесса и негативное – в результате его торможения или полного прекращения.
 
Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ привел примеры глобальных конвенций как КЗХО и КБТО, в которых участвуют подавляющее число государств мира, а также ДРСМД, в соответствии с которым были уничтожены два класса ядерных ракет средней и меньшей дальности только двух государств (СССР и США), но в глобальном масштабе.
 
В.П. Козин разделил тезис о том, что в настоящее время процесс КНВ зашел в глубокий тупик. По подсчетам выступавшего, например, США проявляют негативное отношение к 13 двусторонним и многосторонним договорам и соглашениям, что привело к глубокому застою именно в названной сфере. Такое отношение к договорным актам со стороны Вашингтона проявляется в виде 1) денонсации им существующих договоров (ДПРО, ДРСМД  и СВПД); 2) его отказа от ратификации (ДВЗЯИ, ДОВСЕ и ДТО); 3) значительных нарушений договоров с его стороны  (ДНЯО, ДСНВ-3, ДРСМД до его денонсации и ДОН), а также 4) нежелания рассматривать возможность заключения новых договорных актов, например, ДПРОК и ДНПОК и дополнения существующих соглашений новыми положениями (соглашение о предотвращении инцидентов за внешним пределом территориальных вод на подводные лодки, находящиеся в подводном положении).
 
Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ обозначил четыре негативных тенденции в области КНВ: размытие границ между оборонительными и наступательными вооружениями; резкое понижение порога применения ядерного оружия; возможность передачи директив на применение ядерного оружия одним человеком (в США) дополнение гонки ракетно-ядерных вооружений двумя новыми гонками вооружений: противоракетных систем морского и наземного базирования, а также ударно-боевых космических систем. По его словам, все три вида гонки вооружений создают крайне опасную ситуацию в глобальном измерении, подрывают международную безопасность и стратегическую стабильность во всем мире.
 
В.П. Козин представил участникам дискуссии шесть своих монографий, изданных недавно по проблематике ПРО, СНВ, ТЯО и ДРСМД на русском и английском языках. Одна из таких монографий («Эволюция стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений США и особенности их применения в XXI веке». Москва: изд-во имени Сабашниковых. 2019. 1080 стр.) была представлена на выставке книжных изданий, приуроченных к 75-летию основания МГИМО.
 
 
Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/45287
 
 
 

Об участии В.П. Козина в международной конференции

Член-корреспондент РАВН, ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ В.П. Козин принял участие в международной конференции по проблематике нераспространения ядерного оружия, состоявшейся 2-3 декабря в Москве. В ее работе участвовали участие около 100 экспертов из четырнадцати стран мира.

В.П. Козин выступил с сообщениями на двух пленарных заседаниях, посвященных урокам Карибского ракетного кризиса (КРК-1) 1962 года, и проблемам, существующим между Россией и США в сфере контроля над вооружениями (КНВ).

Эксперт отметил, что несмотря на подробный анализ, ход развития и финальное разрешение «КРК-1», созданного Соединенными Штатами, они и их союзники по НАТО уже пытались развязать «КРК-2», когда в 1979 году было принято «двойное решение» трансатлантического альянса о развертывании в на европейском континенте БРСД «Першинг» и КРНБ «Томагавк», нацеленных на СССР.

По мнению эксперта, в 2004 году в НАТО был инициирован «КРК-3» в виде операции ВВС альянса «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» –  первоначально в воздушном пространстве Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии, а позднее и Польши –  с боевыми самолетами «двойного назначения», то есть способными нести на борту обычные и  ядерные авиабомбы большой мощности. Этот кризис, представляющий значительную ядерную угрозу для России, продолжается до сих пор. «КРК-3» был усилен началом развертывания в США глобальной комбинированной системы ПРО и их планами по милитаризации космоса с помощью ударных космических вооружений. Количественный дисбаланс по ядерным вооружениям, который установился в период первого КРК, теперь сменился на дисбаланс в сфере пространственного размещения «чикагской триады» Североатлантического союза в сторону России, то есть сочетания ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных видов вооружений, в виде средств передового базирования.

По мнению В.П. Козина, следует усилить наше эффективное военное и политико-дипломатическое противодействие американо-натовским средствам передового базирования, которые постоянно наращиваются в количественно-качественном отношении у рубежей России.

По второму вопросу выступавший обратил внимание участников форума о глухом тупике, который возник в области КНВ по инициативе США и НАТО, которые не проявляют желания решать входящие в нее 15 ключевых проблем. Поиску в этом сложном процессе адекватных и взаимоприемлемых развязок не способствует масштабная вооруженная агрессия Украины и НАТО против Российской Федерации, а также разрыв альянсом отношений с нашей страной практически по всем направлениям.

Эксперт ЦВПИ предложил на данном этапе не форсировать переговоры по КНВ с американской стороной и НАТО; не соглашаться с сокращением шести видов перспективных российских видов вооружений, в том числе путем введения запрета на некие «деструктивные» военные технологии, используемые при их создании; а также не принимать предложение США о проведении инспекций на местах с целью контролирования ядерных боезарядов в новом Договоре СНВ-4, а также воздержаться на неопределенный период времени от обсуждения с Вашингтоном каких-то параметров сокращений или ограничений на СНВ по названному договорному акту.

Комбинированная военная угроза, проецируемая в адрес России со стороны США и НАТО является настолько глубокой и основательной, что наши новые перспективные виды ядерных и неядерных вооружений еще могут пригодиться российским Вооруженным Силам в случае обострения военно-политической обстановки между коллективным Западом и Российской Федерацией, резко обострившейся по инициативе США и НАТО.

К сожалению, российский Центр энергетики и безопасности как организатор конференции удовлетворил требование бывшего министра энергетики США Э. Мониза (2013-2017 годы), выступившего в режиме видеоконференции, исключить любые комментарии и даже вопросы со стороны участников встречи в ответ на его выступление (попытки ряда участников задать вопросы в письменном виде были также заблокированы российским модератором встречи). Это позволило бывшему министру энергетики США избежать ответную реакцию аудитории на его необоснованные выпады в адрес России, в частности, на обвинение в готовности применить российское ядерное оружие против Украины. Естественно, что это вызвало возмущение у ряда российских и зарубежных участников мероприятия. Руководитель Центр энергетики и безопасности в качестве организатора состоявшейся конференции, поддерживающий тесные контакты с зарубежными представителями, необоснованно критикующими позицию России по вопросам ее внешней политики и КНВ, вполне мог бы проигнорировать названное требование Э. Мониза.

 

Об участии В.П. Козина в форсайт-форуме

1 июня ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ ИМИ В.П. Козин принял участие в форсайт-форуме на тему «Какая Украина нам нужна?», организованном Медиагруппой «Россия сегодня» и коллективом мультимедийного издания «Украина.ру».

С сообщениями в ходе дискуссии выступили и ответили на многочисленные вопросы участников мероприятия: заместитель Председателя Совета Федерации К.И. Косачев, врио главы ДНР Д. В. Пушилин, первый заместитель Председателя Комитета Государственной Думы по делам СНГ, евразийской интеграции и связям с соотечественниками, руководитель Института стран СНГ К. Ф. Затулин, дпн, философ А.Г. Дугин и другие российские государственные и общественные деятели.

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ ИМИ предложил, чтобы обе Палаты Федерального Собрания Российской Федерации:

1) признали начало вооруженной агрессии Украины против ДНР и ЛНР с 13 апреля 2014 года, а вооруженной агрессии Украины и НАТО против России – с 5 октября 2022 года;

2) инициировали официальное название военных действий Украины и НАТО против России как «вооруженная агрессия Украины и НАТО против России» и переименование СВО как «противодействие вооруженной агрессии Украины и НАТО против России»;

3) приняли решение о квалификации Украины как террористического государства с учетом многочисленных актов индивидуального и массового террора, уже проведенных украинскими Вооруженными силами и спецслужбами против граждан России и ее социально-значимой и иной инфраструктуры;

4) обратились в МИД России с просьбой согласовать дополнение официальной позиции нашего государства по политическому урегулированию ситуации, связанной с вооруженной агрессией Украины и НАТО против России, пунктом о полной компенсации украинской стороной многочисленным жертвам среди гражданского населения России, убитым и раненным украинскими Вооруженными Силами и спецслужбами, а также расходов на восстановление разрушенных и поврежденных ими зданий жилого фонда и различных объектов социальной, энергетической, транспортной и иной инфраструктуры за период с апреля 2014 года по настоящее время.

 

Об участии В.П. Козина в экспертном семинаре по ПРО

26 мая  член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН В.П.Козин принял участие в экспертном семинаре на тему: «Проблема ПРО в современных международных отношениях», организованный Центром перспективных американских исследований ИМИ. Мероприятие было приурочено к 50-летию со дня подписания Договора об ограничении систем противоракетной обороны. В мероприятии приняли участие эксперты ИМИ и Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО, представители Росатома и МИД России, а также ИМЭМО, ИСКРАН, ЮНИДИР, СИПРИ, Шведской военной академии.

В своих ремарках ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ, являющийся автором пяти монографий по проблематике ПРО США и НАТО, вышедших на русском, английском и китайском языках, проанализировал перспективы развития глобальной системы ПРО США после принятия Россией новых гиперзвуковых систем, способных преодолевать американский «противоракетный щит».

При этом он обратил внимание на продолжающееся накапливание ударных ракет-перехватчиков Пентагоном, который по-прежнему намерен развернуть такие средства в основном в Мировом океане (до 95 процентов); на существенную и неуклонно растущую пропорцию между ракетами-перехватчиками стратегической системой ПРО и ядерными боезарядами СНВ в пользу первых.

В.П. Козин заявил о неправомерности недооценки дальнейшей перспективной эволюции системы ПРО США и НАТО и ее отрыва от ракетно-ядерных и обычных вооружений США и трансатлантического альянса. Он напомнил о формулировке, принятой на саммите НАТО в Чикаго в мае 2012 года, о создании единого органически действующего механизма, в который входят все названные три компонента. Такая формулировка неизменно повторяется в последующих итоговых документах саммитов альянса. Она также будет повторена на аналогичной встрече в верхах, которая состоится в Мадриде в июне этого года.

Одновременно был также сделан акцент на опасности расширения постоянно действующей операции ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» в воздушном пространстве трех государств Балтии и Польши из-за участия в ней самолетов двойного назначения этого военного пакта, то есть сертифицированных под доставку ядерных авиабомб в качестве средств передового базирования относительно территории России.

 

Об участии в форуме «Армия-2018»

21 августа в Конгрессно-выставочном центре «Патриот» в подмосковном Алабино стартовал Международный военно-технический форум (МВТФ) «Армия-2018». 100 тысяч квадратных метров откры­тых площадок Главного выста­вочного павильона, 40 тысяч «квадратов» Центрального выставочного комплекса, 37 тысяч метров площадей Павильона предприятий и 11 тысяч метров выставочной инфраструктуры экспозиции Меж­дународного форума «Неделя национальной безопасности» – таковы масштабы главной выставки российской оборонки, в которую за все эти годы превратился МВТФ под таким названием. 1,5 тысячи предприятий и ор­ганизаций демонстрируют в этот раз свыше 26 тысяч экспонатов.

В рамках Научно-деловой программы Форума 22 августа состоялся Круглый стол «Актуальные вопросы государственного управления Российской Федерации», организованный Военным институтом (управления национальной обороной) Военной Академии Генерального штаба Вооруженных Сил России. От МГИМО в этом мероприятии приняли участие директор ЦВПИ А.И. Подберезкин, заведующая кафедрой политической теории Т.А. Алексеева и ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ В.П. Козин.

В своих выступлениях А.И. Подберезкин затронул вопросы развития военной политической обстановки и стратегии Российской Федерации, а В.П. Козин – проблематику военной организации государства в условиях изменения международной обстановки, а также появления новых вызовов и угроз. По завершении дискуссии они дали отдельные интервью РИА «Новости» и радиостанции «Спутник». Их выступления на Круглом столе были отмечены дипломами Форума «за лучший доклад на мероприятии научно-деловой программы МВТФ».

На Круглом столе были распространены монографии, подготовленные в ЦВПИ: «Состояние и долгосрочные военно-политические перспективы развития России в ХXI веке» (автор А.И. Подберезкин), «Эволюция ПРО США и позиция России» и «Тактическое ядерное оружие США: модернизация или сокращения?» (автор В.П. Козин).

Оборона Россия и тайны, скрытые в военных объектах прошлого

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе «Большая страна» на канале ОТР. Насколько хорошо защищена Россия, и имеем ли мы сегодня надежную оборону страны?


В.П. Козин: "У нас появились такие гиперзвуковые системы, которые пока отсутствуют у наших оппонентов, то есть у США и других государств-членов НАТО".

 


Эфир от 29 января 2022г.

Объекты ПРО США в Румынии и Польше должны быть демонтированы

Официальные американские военные представители объявили 13 февраля о переносе сроков ввода в эксплуатацию второй по счету операционной базы ПРО США наземного базирования в Европе. Речь идет о строящемся уже несколько лет американском противоракетном комплексе близ населенного пункта Редзиково, расположенном неподалеку от города Слупск на севере Польши. Закладной камень в его фундамент был установлен еще в мае 2016 года.

Для справки: первая аналогичная американская база ПРО была введена в действие также в это время, но гораздо южнее — на базе ВВС Девеселу в Румынии, которую быстро прибрали к своим рукам американцы. И действующий румынский вариант системы ПРО, и строящийся польский объект представляют собой сооружение с универсальными пусковыми установками «МК-41» в виде сочлененных вместе 24 ячейки в каждом случае. Эта боевая информационно-управляющая система получила название «Иджис», что в переводе означает «эгида». Она также устанавливается на борту боевых кораблей с управляемым ракетным оружием ВМС США: крейсеров класса «Тикондерога» и эсминцев класса «Эрли Берк». Ее наземный вариант получил название «Иджис эшор», то есть система ПРО «Иджис» наземного базирования.

Итак, Пентагон объявил уже о второй попытке переноса срока ввода в строй редзиковского комплекса ПРО США, который они первоначально планировали перевести на боевое дежурство еще в декабре 2018 года, а затем сдвинули свои обязательства на конец текущего года. И вот теперь новая отсрочка: на сей раз на 2022 финансовый год. Именно о таком графике поведала американскому информагентству «Блумберг» представитель Управления по противоракетной обороне (УПРО) Пентагона Хизэр Кавалье. Причиной объявления нового срока сдачи в эксплуатацию базы ПРО под Редзиково стали организационно-финансовые проблемы, связанные с ее строительством, которые возникли у компании-подрядчика «Джон Вуд Груп». В результате чего Министерству обороны США пришлось запрашивать еще 96 млн долл. для завершения проекта — дополнительно к 746 млн долл., которые были израсходованы ранее. В начале февраля новый начальник УПРО вице-адмирал Джон Хилл заявил, что польский проект ПРО уже готов примерно на 92%, но, мол, возникли некие проблемы с отдельными компонентами, от которых зависит его деятельность. При этом он обозначил системы энергообеспечения, охлаждения и некоторые другие виды вспомогательного оборудования.

В переданной представителями Пентагона информации на эту противоракетную тему есть две стороны.

Нет сомнения, что отсрочка реализации «редзиковского проекта» позитивно скажется на европейской безопасности. С другой стороны, тот факт, что польский вариант и его румынский «противоракетный близнец» не ликвидируются совсем, несет в себе отрицательный заряд. Объективная опасность, исходящая от этих двух объектов, заключается в том, что их пусковые установки позволяют устанавливать в них не только оборонительные системы вооружений в виде самых эффективных американских ракет-перехватчиков стратегического назначения, используемых для перехвата баллистических и крылатых ракет. В такие установки можно без труда устанавливать и наступательные виды вооружений в виде крылатых ракет наземного базирования типа «Томагавк». Появилась информация и о возможности загрузки в них высокоточных гиперзвуковых видов вооружений, в спешном порядке разрабатываемых в Соединенных Штатах.

Подобную ракетную рокировку можно произвести безо всяких инженерно-технических переделок пусковых установок «МК-41». Не потребуется и замена программного обеспечения, как пытаются дезинформировать мировую общественность американцы. Не секрет, что компьютерные программы для запуска как оборонительных, так и наступательных видов вооружений для них составляются заранее. Они также заблаговременно вводятся в блоки управления ударно-боевыми средствами под каждый тип загружаемых ракетных вооружений.

В данном контексте следует учесть два обстоятельства. Первое: в принятой в 2019 году в США Стратегии противоракетной обороны перед их «Иджисами» морского и наземного базирования ставятся стратегические задачи: с помощью их наступательных видов вооружений уничтожить МБР России «еще до их запуска». Второе: эти противоракетные базы Пентагона находятся и будут всегда находиться под его полным военным контролем, от которого военно-политическое руководство Румынии и Польши полностью отстранено.

Вполне естественно, что обозначенные факторы делают указанные американские объекты пунктами повышенного внимания российской стороны. По указанным выше причинам операционные базы ПРО США в Румынии и Польше, являющиеся комбинированными объектами стратегического назначения с точки зрения интересов национальной безопасности Российской Федерации, должны быть полностью ликвидированы. Позитивное или негативное решение этого вопроса Вашингтоном должно обязательно учитываться Москвой при выработке окончательной позиции о продлении Договора СНВ-3, в котором прямо говорится об органической взаимосвязи между стратегическими наступательными и стратегическими оборонительными вооружениями.

 Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: Портал МГИМО

Одобренная Трампом новая противоракетная стратегия идет дальше аналогичной установки Обамы

США диверсифицируют виды противоракетной активности

17 января президент Дональд Трамп представил в Пентагоне обновленную стратегию по развитию и применению глобальной системы ПРО США под названием «Обзор противоракетной обороны» (Missile Defense Review), где обозначил основные приоритеты нынешней администрации в названной сфере с учетом новых «угроз» использования баллистических и крылатых ракет, а также гиперзвуковых систем. По мнению американского военно-политического руководства, подобные «угрозы» якобы исходят от России и КНР, а также в меньшей степени от Ирана и КНДР.

Новая стратегия общим объемом в 100 страниц заменила аналогичную противоракетную установку, которую в 2010 году одобрил предыдущий президент Барак Обама, но сохранила ее глобальную схему развертывания, в основном за счет размещения до 95 процентов ракет-перехватчиков в Мировом океане. Актуализированная стратегия повторила специфическую антироссийскую, антикитайскую, антииранскую и антисеверокорейскую направленность, а по целому ряду количественных и качественных параметров пошла дальше, чем названный документ девятилетней дальности.

Стратегия «17 января» находится в полной увязке с ранее утвержденными нынешней администрацией стратегиями общенационального характера, а именно «Стратегией национальной безопасности», «Стратегией национальной обороны» и «Обзора ядерной политики» (ядерной стратегии) страны, которые были приняты в конце 2017-го начале 2018 года. Таким образом, новая противоракетная стратегия полностью вписывается в «чикагскую триаду», в которую на саммите Североатлантического союза в Чикаго в мае 2012 года вошли сведенные в единый стратегический механизм ракетно-ядерные, противоракетные и обычные вооружения США и НАТО в целом.

Оценки ряда экспертов, что новая противоракетная установка США делает упор только на ракетно-ядерное сдерживание их потенциальных противников, а не на наращивание противоракетных потенциалов против них, не соответствуют действительности, поскольку она предусматривает развитие всех существующих и перспективных противоракетных средств.

Во вступительном слове Дональд Трамп признал, что в соответствии с одобренным документом американский противоракетный «щит» призван обеспечить обнаружение и уничтожение любого вида ракет, направленных в сторону США, «в любой фазе полета, в любое время и в любом месте их запуска». Обращено особое внимание на развертывание дополнительных ударных компонентов системы ПРО стратегического назначения в зонах передового базирования, а также на континентальной части страны – на Аляске и в Калифорнии, где общее количество ракет-перехватчиков стратегического назначения возрастет с 44 (40 единиц в первом случае и 4 – во втором) до 64 единиц, или примерно в полтора раза от нынешнего уровня. Для повышения эффективности подобных ракет-перехватчиков «континентального базирования» будет разработана боеголовка с разделяющимися головными частями индивидуального наведения.

Особый упор сделан на наращивание запасов самых эффективных на сегодня ракет-перехватчиков типа «Стэндард-3» в модификации «IIA»  наземного и морского базирования. Перед Пентагоном поставлена задача отработать этот противоракетный вариант для перехвата ракет межконтинентальной дальности к 2020 году. Для справки можно напомнить, что успешный перехват ракеты-мишени такой дальности американскими ВМС и Управлением по ПРО Пентагона уже состоялся.

Возрастет общее количество ракет-перехватчиков наземного базирования, размещаемых на территории США и в других зарубежных государствах. В частности, сохранятся операционные базы ПРО США в Румынии, которая поставлена на боевое дежурство, а также в Польше, строительство которой продолжается. Значительно увеличится потенциал ракет-перехватчиков морского базирования, устанавливаемых на крейсерах и эсминцах определенных классов: в настоящее время имеющихся на 38 боевых кораблях, к 2023 году – уже на 60, а к 2042-2043 годам – на 84 или даже на 96 кораблях.

Усилится космическая орбитальная группировка средств предупреждения о ракетном нападении, действующая в интересах глобальной противоракетной инфраструктуры, продолжится работа над созданием ударных космических вооружений и противоспутниковых систем. Оглашены планы по использованию тяжелых беспилотных летательных аппаратов для доставки средств перехвата ракет и даже многоцелевого истребителя-бомбардировщика F-35. Новацией в актуализированной противоракетной стратегии Дональда Трампа стало положение о разработке средств перехвата гиперзвуковых систем.

Противоракетная стратегия США 2019 года предусматривает уничтожение баллистических и крылатых ракет не только на различных фазах их полета, но и на земле, то есть до их запуска. Такого положения не было в их установке по ПРО девять лет назад.

Администрация президента-республиканца не намерена сокращать расходы на развитие и развертывание глобальной системы ПРО. На 2019 финансовый год конгресс выделил на эти цели 11,3 млрд долларов, что на 1,4 млрд  долларов превысило аналогичный показатель предыдущего периода. Сюда следует добавить 4 млрд долларов, выделенных на укрепление противоракетной инфраструктуры США против «баллистической ракетной угрозы» Северной Кореи.

В целом администрация нынешнего 45-го президента США расходует в ежегодном исчислении приблизительно в полтора раза больше денежных средств, чем это делал президент - ставленник Демократической партии Барак Обама. Дополнительно выделенные ассигнования нынешней администрации пошли на развитие традиционных средств перехвата баллистических и крылатых ракет (126 млн), на разработку лазерных средств ПРО (85 млн) и на создание систем перехвата гиперзвуковых систем потенциальных противников (46 млн долларов). Во время презентации документа Дональд Трамп также призвал своих союзников разделять расходы на развитие глобальной инфраструктуры ПРО с Соединенными Штатами.

Пытаясь принизить деструктивное предназначение новой стратегии развития системы ПРО, руководство Пентагона поспешило успокоить американскую и мировую общественность в том, что одобренный документ не означает, что США должны будут рассматриваться как вступившие в гонку вооружений. Но это на самом деле так, поскольку именно они персонально инициировали такую гонку именно в противоракетной сфере, когда в 2002 году в одностороннем порядке вышли из Договора по ПРО и в 2009 году провозгласили создание амбициозной программы «Европейский поэтапный адаптивный подход» к проблематике противоракетной обороны, которая продлена до 2022 года.

Обращает на себя внимание синхронность обнародования нового «Обзора противоракетной обороны» 17 января и заявления высокопоставленных представителей Государственного департамента США, сделанного накануне, то есть 16 января этого года, о «приостановке» американской стороной обязательств по ДРСМД и выходе из него через шесть месяцев после точки отсчета 2 февраля, то есть в августе. Это говорит о том, что взлом системы договоров по контролю над вооружениями американскими контрагентами будет продолжаться. Вашингтон не желает возобновлять Договор по ПРО в каком бы то ни было виде и вообще выступает категорически против обсуждения противоракетной проблематики с кем бы то ни было. Об этом четко заявил Дональд Трамп во время презентации своей обновленной стратегии в области ПРО.

С учетом отмеченных обстоятельств частная американская исследовательская организация «Агентство по контролю над вооружениями» назвала обновленную стратегию «дорогостоящей и дестабилизирующей» установкой, которая, по ее мнению, повлечет за собой «потенциально опасную экспансию противоракетных вооружений».

Одновременно в американском экспертном сообществе опасаются по поводу того, что Москва и Пекин обязательно ответят на «Обзор противоракетной обороны» как усилением и обновлением своего ракетно-ядерного потенциала, так и разработкой средств преодоления американского и общенатовского противоракетного «щита». И Российская Федерация, и Китайская Народная Республика имеют на это полное право не только в свете особенностей новой американской противоракетной стратегии, но с учетом создания в США качественно новой стратегической ядерной триады, их выхода из ДРСМД и ряда нарушений ими Договора СНВ-3.

Принимая во внимание новую противоракетную установку Соединенных Штатов и целый ряд других военно-политических акций Вашингтона на международной арене, не следует заранее торопиться с заявлениями, что Москва готова положительно решить вопрос с продлением на пятилетний период Договора СНВ-3, срок действия которого истекает в феврале 2021 года.

Было бы неправильно автоматически, только из-за каких-то временных факторов, сокращать российские стратегические ядерные вооружения и высокоточные гиперзвуковые системы в условиях наращивания американских ударных средств, специально созданных и создаваемых  для их перехвата, да еще при одновременном реальном усилении потенциала американских ракетно-ядерных вооружений стратегического и тактического назначения.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: InfoRos

Опасные игрища с атомом

Киевский режим продолжает провокационные обстрелы Запорожской атомной станции, что может привести к ядерной катастрофе.

Запорожская АЭС, с тех пор как перешла под полный российский контроль, неоднократно подвергалась обстрелам украинских вооружённых сил. К чему это может привести и почему со стороны мирового сообщества не принимаются меры по прекращению провокационных обстрелов? Эти и другие вопросы стали темой интервью, которое известный политолог Владимир Козин по просьбе «Красной звезды» взял у постоянного представителя Российской Федерации при международных организациях в Вене Михаила Ульянова.

– Михаил Иванович, в своих интервью российским СМИ вы не раз обращали внимание на то, что МАГАТЭ убеждалось в том, что Запорожская АЭС неоднократно обстреливалась украинской стороной, но в своих публичных докладах этот международный орган обходил стороной названные факты, то есть не обозначал нарушителя обеспечения безопасности столь специфического объекта. Почему МАГАТЭ до сих пор не называет подобных нарушителей? Тем более что такие факты легко проверить по векторам обстрелов с украинской стороны с помощью РЛС и иных разведывательных средств, по фрагментам разорвавшихся артиллерийских снарядов и ракет, запущенных с украинской территории, а также другими методами.

– Агентство действительно никогда не называло сторону, виновную в обстрелах ЗАЭС и прилегающей территории, хотя оно отлично знает, что ответственность за это несёт украинская сторона. Своё молчание на этот счёт секретариат агентства объясняет отсутствием в его мандате так называемых атрибутивных функций, то есть функций установления виновной стороны. Устав МАГАТЭ действительно этого не предусматривает.

Данный вопрос при всей своей, казалось бы, очевидности действительно непростой. Когда западным странам потребовалось наделить атрибутивными функциями Организацию по запрещению химического оружия для использования в антисирийских целях, им пришлось с нарушением действующих правил и процедур протаскивать такое решение через конференцию государств – участников Конвенции о запрещении химического оружия.

Российская сторона пытается выправить этот пробел в рамках возможного создания зоны физической защиты и ядерной безопасности на ЗАЭС. Настаиваем, чтобы находящиеся на станции эксперты МАГАТЭ по крайней мере фиксировали направление, с которого осуществляется та или иная атака.

– Генеральный директор МАГАТЭ активно продвигает свою инициативу об обеспечении физической защиты и ядерной безопасности именно ЗАЭС. В чём суть его предложения? Предполагает ли его инициатива распространение на контролируемые Киевом другие АЭС?

– Отвечая на ваш вопрос кратко, могу сказать, что создание зоны защиты на ЗАЭС предполагает полный отказ от любых нападений на ЗАЭС или с её территории. Иными словами, украинская сторона должна подтвердить, что осуществлять обстрелы ЗАЭС она не будет. Мы же без труда готовы взять на себя обязательства не осуществлять нападений с территории станции. Подчеркну особо: мы никогда таких нападений не делали и делать не планируем. Кстати, на станции даже нет тяжёлых вооружений, которые могут быть использованы для нападений на украинских военнослужащих, находящихся по другую сторону Каховского водохранилища.

Дискуссия на мартовской сессии Совета управляющих МАГАТЭ показала, что препятствием для создания защитной зоны является позиция Украины и США, которые пока не готовы поддержать инициативу гендиректора Рафаэля Гросси.

Распространения инициативы гендиректора агентства на подконтрольные Киеву АЭС по крайней мере пока не предполагается. Украинцы об этом не просят. Видимо, потому, что мы атомные электростанции никогда не обстреливали.

– Не так давно возник вопрос о ротации инспекторов МАГАТЭ на ЗАЭС, которому в странах НАТО и ЕС придали особое значение, хотя он явно не заслуживал этого. В конце концов он был положительно решён без особых усилий. Вновь была попытка создать вокруг него особый информационный повод?

– Если такая попытка и была, то она оказалась негодной. На мартовской сессии Совета управляющих мы акцентировали внимание на том, что сроки ротации переносились несколько раз, но отнюдь не по нашей вине или инициативе. Российские военные, обеспечивающие ротацию международного персонала, неизменно действовали чётко и быстро. Неоднократный перенос сроков и даже маршрута ротации всякий раз происходил по инициативе либо украинской стороны, либо департамента охраны и безопасности Секретариата ООН, который в обязательном порядке в соответствии с принятыми в системе ООН правилами подключается к обеспечению безопасного передвижения международного персонала в небезопасных районах.

– Как известно, на территории Украины ранее было в общей сложности пять АЭС. В настоящее время одна из них – Чернобыльская АЭС – находится в заглушённом состоянии после аварии на её четвёртом энергоблоке в 1986 году, а Запорожская АЭС – под полным контролем России. Каково отношение нынешнего украинского руководства к обеспечению физической защиты и ядерной безопасности АЭС, которые в настоящее время полностью контролируются Украиной?

– Профильные украинские структуры занимаются вопросами обеспечения безопасности на четырёх подконтрольных им АЭС в обычном режиме. По мере необходимости обращаются через МАГАТЭ или напрямую к иностранным поставщикам за содействием в получении материалов и оборудования, необходимых для бесперебойного функционирования этих станций.

– Недавно МАГАТЭ опубликовало очередной доклад на тему обеспечения физической защиты и ядерной безопасности на украинской территории объёмом 52 страницы. В чём его основные особенности и чем он отличается от предыдущего доклада агентства по этому вопросу, который был опубликован в сентябре 2022 года?

– В части, касающейся Запорожской АЭС, доклад МАГАТЭ в очередной раз получился не вполне объективным. Информация о положении дел на станции подаётся в нём однобоко. Доклад создаёт впечатление, что в проблемах на станции зачастую виновата Россия. Если и говорится о каких-то позитивных моментах, то обезличенно: проблема была решена. О том, что она решена благодаря российским усилиям, не упоминается. На все эти и другие несуразности мы указали при обсуждении данного документа на мартовской сессии Совета управляющих МАГАТЭ. Подчеркнули, что ожидали от размещения экспертов агентства на ЗАЭС, находящихся там уже седьмой месяц, более качественной и объективной информации. Будем и дальше добиваться исправления явных перекосов.

Препятствием для создания защитной зоны является позиция Украины и США, которые пока не готовы поддержать инициативу гендиректора МАГАТЭ.


Наша справка.

Запорожская АЭС – крупнейшая атомная электростанция в Европе, расположенная на берегу Каховского водохранилища. Мощность каждого из шести энергоблоков ВВЭР-1000 составляет 1 ГВт. Все реакторы производились на Ижорском заводе, генераторы — на предприятии «Электросила», расположенном также в Северной столице, а турбины — на харьковском «Турбоатоме». От ЗАЭС отходят четыре ЛЭП, по которым электроэнергия подаётся в Запорожскую, Николаевскую, Херсонскую и Одесскую области.

В феврале – марте 2022 года военный контроль над ЗАЭС взяли подразделения Росгвардии, а также российские гражданские специалисты в области обеспечения ядерной безопасности на подобных объектах. 5 октября 2022-го был издан Указ Президента России № 711 «Об особенностях правового регулирования в области использования атомной энергии на территории Запорожской области», согласно которому Запорожская АЭС перешла в федеральную собственность России, а также было создано ФГУП «Запорожская АЭС».


Беседовал Владимир Козин. Источник: «Красная звезда»

 

 

Опасные идейки

23 декабря вице-президент НИИГлоБ, ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ В.П. Козин выступил с сообщением на тему: «Несостоятельность предложений о контроле над вооружениями через запрет «разрушительных» военных технологий».

Он отметил, что в последнее время в академических кругах стран-членов НАТО стала активно дебатироваться тема блокирования «новых разрушительных» технологий военного и двойного назначения (ТВДН), которые, мол, используются Россией для создания перспективных «разрушительных» видов вооружений.

В частности, на вебинаре, организованном в одном из европейских городов (место и точное время его проведения известны), были названы некоторые российские перспективные виды вооружений, которые должны быть ограничены или сокращены именно по причине использования при их создании, якобы, «новых разрушительных технологий». Иными словами, был поставлен вопрос о необходимости обеспечения контроля над вооружениями с помощью блокирования названных видов технологий в ходе переговорного процесса.

В этом контексте конкретно были названы отдельные новейшие виды российских вооружений, в том числе: мобильные системы ядерных и неядерных систем стратегических наступательных вооружений, средства нанесения ответного (второго) ядерного или неядерного удара; гиперзвуковые высокоточные системы в ядерном и неядерном снаряжении, в том числе установленные на межконтинентальные баллистические ракеты; автономные подводные аппараты большой дальности плавания с ядерными боезарядами на борту; иные виды роботизированных систем, оснащенных ядерными или неядерными боезарядами, а также ударные боевые средства космического базирования.

Несложно предположить, какие именно российские перспективные виды вооружений имелись в виду.

В.П. Козин предложил не принимать участие в возможных дискуссиях с западными официальными представителями и неправительственными экспертами на эту тему по следующим причинам:

1) отсутствия четкого определения «новых разрушительных технологий» и «новых разрушительных видов вооружений»;

2) искусственного деления ТВДН на «деструктивные» и «конструктивные» (западные политологи считают, что последние имеются только у США и НАТО);

3) неприменения термина «новые разрушительных технологии» ТВДН в России, где используется более общий термин: «новые перспективные технологии»;

4) невозможности контролирования ТВДП между противостоящими государствами вообще в силу повышенной секретности таких технологий;

и, наконец, 5) ввиду отсутствия доверия между Россией, с одной стороны, а также США и НАТО, с другой, по вине и инициативе последних.

Опасные полномочия президентов США

В американских военно-политических кругах усиливаются голоса тех, кто подвергает критике реальную возможность президента и одновременно верховного главнокомандующего вооруженными силами США Дональда Трампа отдать единоличный приказ Стратегическим ядерным силам страны применить ядерное оружие в первом ударе.

Если на первых порах за законодательное ограничение подобных полномочий 45-го президента Соединенных Штатов выступали представители оппозиционной ему Демократической партии, считая, что  человеку со столь непредсказуемыми и подчас с далеко идущими амбициями нельзя, образно говоря, доверять «ядерный стартовый ключ», то теперь волна беспокойства охватила широкие круги не только американской общественности, но и высокопоставленных государственно-политических и военных деятелей.

Сторонники ограничения столь специфических исключительных полномочий главы американского государства обращают внимание на то, что такое право принадлежит ему только на основе прецедентов применения ядерного оружия, а не на основе общенационального законодательства. В данном контексте приводятся примеры использования американского ядерного оружия против Японии в 1945 году и готовности США вновь применить его в периоды наиболее жесткого противостояния Вашингтона и Москвы, а именно во времена Берлинского и Карибского кризисов, а также в ходе ряда региональных конфликтов в различных районах земного шара.  В общей сложности было восемь таких случаев.

При аргументационном обосновании ограничения единоличных прерогатив президента Дональд Трампа в любое время дать указание вооруженным силам страны нанести первый ядерный удар по какому-нибудь «несостоятельному государству» делается упор на том, что ни Конгресс, ни Верховный судья, ни министр обороны или председатель Объединенного комитета начальников штабов вооруженных сил США не имеют никаких возможностей воспрепятствовать принятию нынешним хозяином Белого дома столь ответственного и крайне опасного по своим последствиям шага – дать команду на ограниченное по масштабам или массированное применение ядерного оружия в инициативном первом ударе.

Следует отметить, что подобные попытки ограничить аналогичные единоличные полномочия предпринимались со стороны Конгресса еще в сентябре 2016 года в отношении президента Барака Обамы. Задолго до этого, в 1972 году с поправкой ограничить такие президентские полномочия выступал сенатор Уильям Фулбрайт. То есть, с учетом этих фактов нельзя утверждать, что попытки лишить президента страны применить ядерное оружие в первом ударе было тогда как-то связано с Северной Кореей. Но вполне очевидно, что в нынешних условиях прямые угрозы Дональда Трампа применить против нее весь спектр силовых средств, в том числе и ядерное оружие, усилили стремление конгрессменов «купировать» его единоличные ядерные прерогативы.

Буквально через четыре  дня после вступления Дональда Трампа в президентскую должность 20 января 2017 года законодатели с Капитолийского холма предприняли такой же шаг применительно и к нынешнему президенту-республиканцу. В обеих палатах Конгресса был внесен законопроект под заголовком «Об ограничении применении первыми ядерного оружия», который запрещал президенту использовать вооруженные силы США для нанесения первого ядерного удара, кроме случаев, когда такой удар наносится после принятия Конгрессом декларации об объявлении войны, и которая ясно выраженным способом разрешает нанести такой удар.

Обозначенный вопрос приобрел в Соединенных Штатах такое значение, что даже командующий Стратегическим командованием вооруженных сил страны четырехзвездный генерал Джон Хайтен заявил в конце ноября 2017 года, что откажется выполнять приказ Дональда Трампа о применении ядерного оружия, если он придет к выводу, что такой президентский акт является незаконным.

Пока нет никаких признаков, что Дональд Трамп радикально изменит ядерную стратегию страны. Скорее всего, в ней останется установка на нанесение первого «превентивного и упреждающего ядерного удара» по большой группе государств мира и останется прежним низкий порог применения ядерного оружия, в том числе с использованием ядерных боезарядов малой мощности, например, до 0,3 килотонны, который имеет новая ядерная авиабомба В-61-12.

Соединенные Штаты, как самая мощная ядерная держава мира, должна сделать более решительный и реальный шаг в направлении снижения опоры на ракетно-ядерные силы. Их готовность к этому покажут дискуссии и по другим критически важным направлениям двусторонней и глобальной разоруженческой повестки дня, в том числе по проблеме создания Вашингтоном глобальной стратегической системы ПРО, сопряженной с мая 2012 года с системой ПРО НАТО, а также их ракетно-ядерными и обычными вооружениями в виде принципиально новой «чикагской триады».

А пока американские законодатели думают, как лучше не допустить ядерной войны, которую в принципе может развязать только один человек в Соединенных Штатах только из своих собственных убеждений, не представляется ли целесообразным предложить всем ядерным государствам взять на себя обязательство о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе против кого бы то ни было? То есть реализовать подобную инициативу, с которой выступил Советский Союз еще в 1982 году. Этот шаг произвел бы самое благоприятное впечатление во всем мире.

Автор: В.П. Козин, ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ, член-корреспондент РАЕН, профессор РАВН 

 

Операция ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование»

 
В конце марта этого года исполнилась шестнадцатая годовщина начала проведения в зоне Балтийского моря крайне опасной и весьма провокационной с точки зрения интересов национальной безопасности России, операции ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», которая в документах альянса значится как «Baltic Air Policing». Решение о её проведении было принято на заседании Североатлантического совета 17 марта 2004 года под сомнительным предлогом – с целью «защиты воздушного пространства государств Балтии», словно кто-то и когда-то посягал на их воздушное пространство.
 
Спустя почти две недели после принятия этого решения в небе трёх балтийских государств – Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии, которые вступили в Североатлантический союз в качестве полноправных членов в тот же 2004 год, на ротационной основе появились первые натовские боевые самолёты средней дальности. Эта операция стала осуществляться круглогодично, но вначале с вылетом боевых самолетов на несколько часов в сутки. Но затем время их нахождения в воздухе было доведено до круглосуточного. Впоследствии в зону ее проведения, которая охватывает воздушное пространство трех названных сателлитов США по трансатлантическому альянсу и часть неба над Балтийским морем, было включено и воздушное пространство Польши, которая стала членом альянса несколько раньше, а именно в 1999 году.
 
Руководство этой операцией стало осуществляться Центром совместных операций ВВС Североатлантического союза, расположенном в германском г. Удем.
 
Половина из 30 входящих в настоящее время в альянс государств предоставили в эту военно-воздушную операцию НАТО свои истребители и истребители-бомбардировщики различных типов, самолёты-заправщики и самолёты-разведчики. В ней на основе ротации стали участвовать боевые самолёты ВВС Бельгии, Великобритании, Венгрии, Дании, Испании, Польши, Португалии, Румынии, США, Турции, Норвегии, Нидерландов, Франции и ФРГ.
 
Боевые самолёты названных государств альянса «трансатлантической солидарности» активно используют не только воздушное пространство Латвии, Литвы, Эстонии и Польши, но и их военно-воздушные базы, расположенные, соответственно,  в районе латвийского Лиелварде, литовского Зокняй, эстонского населенного пункта Эмари и польского г. Лодзь (база ВВС Ласк). Все эти авиабазы после вхождения в альянс Польши и трёх государств Балтии прошли основательную модернизацию, после которой они приобрели многофункциональный характер. Настолько многофункциональный, что могут принимать все три типа тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков, имеющихся на вооружении Соединённых Штатов, а именно бомбардировщики стратегического назначения «В-1В», «В-52Н» и «В-2А». Все они, получившие «постоянную прописку» на военных базах в Великобритании, уже несколько лет назад стали отрабатывать перелёты и посадку на эстонской авиабазе в Эмари.
 
Как видно из этого списка стран-участниц для её проведения свои военно-воздушные единицы выделили все три ядерные державы Запада, то есть Великобритания, США и Франция. Они стали стабильно использовать в ней свои истребители-бомбардировщики «двойного назначения», способные нести на борту не только обычные виды вооружений, но и ядерные вооружения в виде авиабомб свободного падения, которые по мощности своих боезарядов иногда превосходят мощность ядерных боезарядов некоторых стратегических межконтинентальных ракет Соединенных Штатов типа «Минитмен-3».
 
Как отмечалось в информационном сообщении пресс-службы НАТО в марте 2019 года, американские стратегические ядерные силы направили в Великобританию сразу шесть тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков  «B-52Н» дальнего радиуса действия – как было объявлено, «для проведения серии учебных мероприятий над Европой». Но что это за «мероприятия» стало ясно чуть позже. В конце прошлого года один из тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков этого типа произвел учебное бомбометание по литовскому полигону в 60 км от российского эксклава – Калининградской области.
 
Комментируя в беседе со мной возникшую ситуацию с появлением американских тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков в Балтийском регионе, один из депутатов латвийского парламента пытался перевести разговор на несколько иной аспект, заявляя, что Пентагон не строит специальных хранилищ для хранения ядерного оружия в Латвии. Может быть, что действительно не строит, но это не означает, что на борту обозначенных средств доставки ядерного оружия, принадлежащих Соединённым Штатам, его нет и в помине. Одновременно нельзя утверждать, что оно имеется на их борту, так как никаких военно-технических инспекций по этому поводу Российская Федерация никогда не проводила и не проводит до сих пор – просто в силу отсутствия соответствующей договорённости как с Вашингтоном, так и со столицами всех трёх государств Балтии.
 
Тем временем НАТО продолжает усиливать группировку и расширять боевые задачи операции «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование».
 
Еще 14 июня 2016 года тогдашний заместитель генерального секретаря НАТО американец Александр Вершбоу встретился с министрами обороны Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии, чтобы подписать новое соглашение о механизмах организации использования воздушного пространства в поддержку миссии ВВС НАТО по патрулированию воздушного пространства и другой деятельности в воздушном пространстве в регионе Балтийского моря.
 
Во время церемонии подписания Александр Вершбоу подчеркнул, что данное соглашение между альянсом и тремя государствами Балтии будет способствовать «расширению возможностей для подготовки к действиям в воздушном пространстве Балтийского региона». Возникает вопрос: для подготовки к каким «действиям»? Тогдашний заместитель генерального секретаря трансатлантического союза также добавил, что подписанный документ направляет «чёткий сигнал об общей ответственности и решимости Североатлантического союза защищать территорию и население стран НАТО». Защищать от кого?
 
В соответствии с новой стратегией объединённых ВВС трансатлантического альянса – в оригинале: NATO’s Joint Air Power Strategy –  одобренной 26 июня 2018 года, военно-воздушные силы входящих в него государств должны иметь возможность действовать «в любой местности и в любых условиях», в том числе в сильно защищённом воздушном пространстве и в зонах интенсивного воздушного движения. Балтийский регион подпадает под такую трактовку воздушной активности, предложенную штаб-квартирой блока. Подтвердив готовность продолжения текущих военно-воздушных операций в различных регионах мира, названный документ нацелил государства Североатлантического союза на продолжение разработки дополнительных наступательных доктрин ВВС и создания новых сил и средств в этой сфере.
 
В официальных документах стратегического значения НАТО указывается, что круглосуточная защита воздушного пространства государств Балтии основана на том, что они не имеют достаточного количества боевых самолётов, которые могли бы взять на себя обозначенную задачу. Однако особенности проведения столь длительной операции ВВС НАТО в небе Балтики с отработкой специфических тактических и стратегических задач свидетельствует о том, что она преследует наступательные боевые цели широкого спектра.
 
Как было объявлено на саммите НАТО, состоявшемся в июле 2018 года в Брюсселе, в рамках блока была согласована стратегия по объединённому военно-воздушному потенциалу, которая станет ключевым фактором для миссий ВВС альянса по патрулированию воздушного пространства в мирное время. Она касается и операции «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование».
 
Судя по заявлениям высшего военно-политического руководства НАТО, сделанными в начале апреля этого года, все эти группировки наземного, морского и воздушного базирования могут быть, в случае необходимости, «усилены» в еще большей степени. Естественно, что не из-за коронавируса.
 
Указанная операция, которую некоторые российские специалисты, не знакомые с её ключевым функциональным предназначением, неправильно переводят с английского ее официальное название как «Балтийская полицейская операция», отнюдь не сформирована как некая «полицейская миссия» по контролированию и обеспечению безопасности воздушного движения в этой части европейского континента. Названная операция в реальном измерении – это перспективная боевая воздушная акция с далеко идущими целями.
 
Почему операция ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» названа вначале материала «крайне опасной и дестабилизирующей»? Очевидно, что не только по той причине, что ее военно-воздушная группировка дополняет четыре многонациональные сухопутные боевые группы «передового базирования» Североатлантического союза, которые также созданы на территории четырех государств восточной и южной зоны Балтийского моря, упомянутых ранее, а также военно-морские силы их альянса, постоянно размещенные в водах Балтики.
 
С точки зрения национальной безопасности России, существенно и другое обстоятельство.
 
Это явный ядерный фактор, который присутствует в названной военно-воздушной операции. Тем более, что её «зона ответственности» охватывает не только небо над названными тремя государствами Балтии и Польши, но и воздушное пространство, которое простирается над частью акватории Балтийского моря, прилегающей к территории Калининградской и Ленинградской областей.
 
Назвав развертывание самолетов-носителей ядерного оружия Североатлантического союза «плановым», его официальный представитель Оана Лунгеску признала, что «это свидетельствует о том, что ядерный зонтик США защищает Европу и демонстрирует уникальный потенциал, который США могут перебросить в Европу в кризисной ситуации». Так всё же это самый настоящий «ядерный зонтик», а не некое безобидное рутинное «воздушное патрулирование»?
 
Из-за этого потенциального ядерного компонента такую операцию ВВС альянса вполне можно расценить как «Балтийский ядерный кризис» или «Карибский кризис № 3», если учесть реально созданный Соединёнными Штатами «Карибский кризис № 1» в октябре 1962 года и условно названный «Карибский кризис № 2», который был инициирован участниками Североатлантического союза в декабре 1979 года, когда тот дал «добро» на развертывание в ряде государств Европы американских ядерных баллистических ракет типа «Першинг» и крылатых ракет «Томагавк» наземного базирования.
 
Представляется, что именно по названным выше причинам российской стороне необходимо постоянно ставить перед США и остальными государствами Североатлантического союза, которые принимают в указанной операции участие, вопрос о полном прекращении патрулирования воздушного пространства стран Балтии и зоны Балтийского моря боевыми самолётами НАТО «двойного назначения», а также американской тяжёлой стратегической авиацией. К сожалению, в официальных заявлениях российской стороны по проблематике контроля над вооружениями критические замечания в адрес этой операции практически не делаются. Не все даже знают о ее существовании. Или недостаточно глубоко представляют себе ее пагубные последствия как для региональной обстановки, так и для глобальной ситуации.
 
Постановка вопроса с российской стороны о ее полном прекращении должна быть последовательно-активной в любом случае. Такое требование должно также фигурировать в качестве ответа на настойчивые заявления США и НАТО, которые настаивают, чтобы Россия в одностороннем порядке сократила свои видов вооружений или снизила свою военную деятельность на своей территории до нулевой отметки, в том числе в районе Балтики. В частности, в зоне Калининградской и Ленинградской областей.
 
Автор: Владимир Козин;  Источник: ИА Инфорос
 
 

 

Операция “Вторжение”. Чем Россия ответит Украине и Западу

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “Не могу молчать” на канале Царьград-ТВ.

На среду Запад назначил войну России и Украины. Правда, ни одна из сторон воевать не собиралась. По крайней мере, по заявлениям официальных представителей двух стран. Вопрос: почему США и их подпевалы по НАТО вопят о грядущей в восточной Европе войне, и кому вся эта истерия выгодна?


В.П. Козин: «Это решение [Государственной Думы по вопросу признания ДНР и ЛНР] продиктовано жизнью, реальным развитием военно-политической обстановки в этой части Европы. … Надо ставить вопрос перед Киевом по-максимуму: в самое ближайшее время признать ДНР и ЛНР независимыми государственными формированиями именно по линии границ этих областей, которые были там до 2014 года».


Эфир от 15 февраля 2022г.

Оружие доброе и злое

В НАТО форсируют создание перспективных вооружений и придумывают интересную классификацию

В последнее время в странах, входящих в Североатлантический союз, заметно активизировались процессы дальнейшего развития новых технологий военного и двойного назначения, которые используются при создании перспективных видов вооружений с различными функциональными задачами. Заметное развитие эта тема получила на встрече министров обороны трансатлантического альянса, состоявшейся 21–22 октября 2021 года в Брюсселе.

Победа в будущей войне за искусственным интеллектом

На заседании отмечалось, что к новым технологиям, которые могут быть использованы НАТО в интересах его обороны и безопасности, относятся технологии искусственного интеллекта (ИИ), квантовые технологии, технологии обработки больших массивов данных, автономных систем и повышения способностей человека, а также гиперзвуковые и космические новации. Указывалось, что из всех обозначенных вариантов наиболее распространенным и многообещающим видом являются разработки искусственного интеллекта в сочетании с другими, такими как обработка больших массивов данных, технологии автономных систем и биотехнологии.

Руководители оборонных ведомств этого военного блока впервые в его истории приняли Стратегию использования искусственного интеллекта для обороны и безопасности всех государств – членов НАТО.

В документе зафиксировано, что его реализация повлияет на всю деятельность Североатлантического союза в решении трех основных задач: обеспечения коллективной обороны, кризисного урегулирования и совместной безопасности.

Одобренная стратегия преследует четыре ключевые цели: поощрение разработок и использование технологии искусственного интеллекта в интересах обеспечения обороны и безопасности союзников, ускоренное внедрение технологии искусственного интеллекта и повышение оперативной совместимости в деле ее использования в рамках альянса, обеспечение принципов ответственного использования технологий искусственного интеллекта, то есть обеспечение режима секретности, выявление и защита от угроз злонамеренного использования технологий искусственного интеллекта государственными образованиями и негосударственными субъектами.

В последнем случае было оговорено, что противодействие угрозам враждебного использования технологий ИИ будет проходить на всех этапах их разработки и внедрения в производство вооружений.

Была поставлена задача обеспечить тесное взаимодействие военно-промышленного комплекса стран альянса с частными компаниями и научно-исследовательскими центрами. Координирующей структурой такого взаимодействия определена штаб-квартира Североатлантического союза в Брюсселе.

Кроме того, на этой натовской встрече объявлено о создании Инновационного фонда НАТО в один миллиард евро, который, как заявил генеральный секретарь альянса Йенс Столтенберг 22 октября, будет использован для разработки перспективных и неких «разрушительных» технологий. Изложенная позиция не содержала никаких терминологических разъяснений, а была обозначена лишь в лапидарно-постановочном плане. Как отметил итальянский эксперт Манлио Динуччи, фонд будет работать над созданием «вооружений для ведения войны».

О своем участии заявили 17 государств НАТО. Причем часть из них расположена в непосредственной близости от России – республики Прибалтики, Польша и Румыния, а также Бельгия, Италия, Нидерланды и ФРГ, где уже около 70 лет находится американское тактическое ядерное оружие в виде корректируемых авиабомб, которые могут решать стратегические задачи, если будут установлены на американские стратегические бомбардировщики. 19 европейских государств НАТО уже дали добро ядерным авиастратегам.

«Плохие» и «хорошие» технологии

Применительно к Российской Федерации и Китайской Народной Республике изложенный руководством альянса подход будет означать распространение точно такого же термина на их перспективные технологии военного и двойного назначения, которые используются для создания перспективных видов вооружений. Это, вероятно, приведет к тому, что на последующем этапе НАТО будет требовать от Москвы и Пекина введения ограничений на подобные технологии с целью сокращения их перспективных видов оружия, в производстве которых используются названные технологии и которые произвольно будут отнесены к разряду «дестабилизирующих».

На вебинаре, проведенном недавно в одном из европейских городов, названы некоторые российские перспективные виды вооружений, которые должны быть ограничены или сокращены именно по причине использования в них якобы «новых разрушительных технологий».

Конкретно отметили отдельные новейшие виды российских вооружений, где используются «разрушительные» технологии военного и двойного назначения, в том числе:

  • мобильные системы ядерных и неядерных систем стратегических наступательных вооружений, средства нанесения ответного (второго) ядерного или неядерного удара;
  • гиперзвуковые высокоточные системы в ядерном и неядерном снаряжении, в том числе установленные на межконтинентальные баллистические ракеты;
  • автономные подводные аппараты большой дальности плавания с ядерными боезарядами на борту;
  • иные виды роботизированных систем, оснащенных ядерными или неядерными боезарядами;
  • ударные средства космического базирования.

 

Несложно предположить, какие именно российские перспективные виды вооружений имелись в виду, о которых было официально объявлено в марте 2018 года в Послании президента России Владимира Путина Федеральному собранию страны.

В одной западной публикации недавно было сделано уточнение: добавлена критика российской системы применения ядерного оружия «Периметр», известной в НАТО как «Мертвая рука». Это комплекс автоматизированного управления массированным ответным ядерным ударом, который был создан в СССР в разгар холодной войны и после его распада используется Россией. «Периметр» – альтернативная система, ударной основой которой являются ядерные боезаряды стратегического назначения. Она была создана как резервная система связи и использования ЯО для неотвратимого возмездия, если ключевые центры управления ядерными силами будут поражены первым превентивным и упреждающим ракетно-ядерным ударом США, которые до сих пор не отказались от такой агрессивно-наступательной концепции.

При этом критики «Периметра» не вспоминают о двух ее принципиальных особенностях: она исключает возможность принятия решения об ответном ядерном ударе в случае ложной тревоги (при этом данные средств предупреждения о ракетном нападении должны быть документально и надежно подтверждены). Несмотря на автоматизированные блоки и системы управления, последнее слово при ответном применении ракетно-ядерного оружия будет оставаться за высокопоставленными должностными лицами, облеченными военно-политическими функциями и правовыми полномочиями.

В ходе упомянутой дискуссии ее участники высказали мнение, что «разрушительные» технологии военного и двойного назначения могут оказывать дестабилизирующее воздействие на процесс достижения договоренностей по контролю над вооружениями между государствами, располагающими крупными военными потенциалами. С другой стороны, проводилась мысль, что некие «позитивные» технологии военного и двойного назначения, которые не идентифицировались, могут оказывать благоприятное воздействие на укрепление стратегической стабильности и процесс обеспечения контроля над вооружениями.

Обозначенная схема контролирования перспективных вооружений с помощью ограничения «разрушительных» технологий представляется весьма оригинальной по той причине, что ранее она не использовалась в странах, входящих в трансатлантический альянс. Однажды американской стороной применялся лишь способ произвольного объявления «дестабилизирующими» отдельных носителей ядерного оружия Советского Союза, а не технологий. Речь идет о советских тяжелых МБР, часть была уничтожена в свое время без надлежащего размена на какие-то ракетно-ядерные средства Соединенных Штатов и только потому, что у них не нашлось «дестабилизирующих» ракет подобного класса.

Изложенная схема контролирования перспективных вооружений с помощью ограничения или запрещения «разрушительных» перспективных технологий представляется опасной для национальной безопасности государств, против которых она будет направлена.

Как видно, оригинальность применения такого замысла в военно-политическом руководстве НАТО проявляется в том, что он предполагает «продавить» тему ограничения или сокращения перспективных российских вооружений уже не с помощью апробированного десятилетиями традиционного процесса контроля над вооружениями за столом переговоров, а посредством использования двухэтапной формулы: сначала с помощью выдвижения требования о выборочном запрете использования в России или КНР «новых разрушительных технологий», а затем путем блокирования перспективных вооружений под тем предлогом, что в них, мол, использованы «новые разрушительные технологии».

А что скажут в России

Важно отметить, что в заявлениях высокопоставленных российских государственных и военно-политических официальных представителей, а также в современной российской академической литературе такие термины, как «новые появляющиеся разрушительные технологии» (в английском варианте new emerging disruptive technologies) или в более коротком виде как «появляющиеся разрушительные технологии» (в английском варианте emerging disruptive technologies или сокращенно EDT), не используются вообще.

В официальных заявлениях и выступлениях российского военно-политического руководства используется более общий термин: «новые перспективные технологии» (new perspective technologies или сокращенно NPT) или просто «новые технологии» военного, гражданского или двойного назначения. Такие термины выглядят более гибкими и нейтральными, чем термины «новые появляющиеся разрушительные технологии» и «появляющиеся разрушительные технологии», которые используются в странах – членах НАТО слишком произвольно и с определенным дискриминирующим подтекстом применительно к другим государствам.

Упомянутый российский термин имеет два ключевых слова: «новый» и «перспективный», что означает: во-первых, такие технологии отнюдь не старые, а недавно созданные и во-вторых, они ориентированы в будущее и могут использоваться в ближайшем и более отдаленном будущем для производства новых высокотехнологичных видов вооружений, которые будут способны значительно повысить военный потенциал России и противостоять масштабной внешней агрессии.

Очевидно, что во многих конкретных случаях перспективные технологии военного и двойного назначения могут быть применены при производстве новых видов вооружений, используемых только для решения оборонительных задач.

Если все «новые появляющиеся разрушительные технологии» будут квалифицированы как «разрушительные», то это будет означать, что все они должны быть полностью запрещены на взаимной основе. Равно как и все подобные военные технологии и технологии двойного назначения, которые разрабатываются и используются другими странами, которые обладают крупным военным потенциалом. Но такой п одход вряд ли будет поддержан ими.

Препятствия на пути обмена мнениями

Из многочисленных выступлений и публикаций, которые появляются в странах, входящих в трансатлантический военный союз, пока нет ясности: каким образом новые перспективные технологии военного и двойного назначения могут быть использованы для укрепления стратегической стабильности и оживления процесса контроля над вооружениями, который практически застыл на месте.

Он достиг по сути нулевой отметки после одностороннего выхода США из серии двусторонних и многосторонних договоров по контролю над вооружениями, в частности из договоров по ограничению систем противоракетной обороны, о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, по открытому небу, о торговле оружием, а также из многостороннего соглашения по иранской ядерной программе. Кроме того, США до сих пор не ратифицировали Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний, который был подписан в 1996 году. Не отказались они и от развертывания своих новых ракет средней дальности, оснащенных ядерными боезарядами, в Европе и АТР.

Весьма сомнительным выглядит предложение обсуждать перспективные технологии военного и двойного назначения, когда Вашингтон по-прежнему демонстрирует негативное отношение в общей сложности к тринадцати двусторонним и многосторонним договорам по контролю над вооружениями, имеет пять ключевых военно-политических стратегий наступательного характера.

Пентагон включил в национальную ракетно-ядерную стратегию четырнадцать оснований для применения ядерного оружия стратегического и тактического назначения не только в ответном, но и в первом превентивном и упреждающем ударе, в том числе по целям в Российской Федерации и КНР.

Вполне очевидно, что большим препятствием для официального обсуждения проблемы ограничения перспективных технологий военного и двойного назначения станет проблема обеспечения режима секретности национальных технологий на переговорах с другой договаривающейся стороной. Тем более если принятая на октябрьской встрече в Брюсселе руководителей оборонных ведомств стран – участниц НАТО Стратегия использования искусственного интеллекта обращает особое внимание на это требование.

С другой стороны, на этот вопрос указывает и российская сторона. Например, опубликованный в Интернет-сети приказ № 379 ФСБ РФ от 28 сентября 2021 года «Об утверждении Перечня сведений в области военной, военно-технической деятельности Российской Федерации, которые при их получении иностранным государством, его государственными органами, международной или иностранной организацией, иностранными гражданами или лицами без гражданства могут быть использованы против безопасности Российской Федерации». В частности, из пункта 25 названного документа следует, что сведения о квантовых технологиях и технологиях искусственного интеллекта, которые используются при разработке новых перспективных образцов (комплексов, систем) вооружений, военной и специальной техники, не могут быть переданы иностранным государствам, иным зарубежным юридическим и физическим лицам за исключением сведений, содержащихся в открытом доступе.

Представляется предпочтительным использовать термин «новые технологии» или «новые перспективные технологии» военного и двойного назначения, которые могут быть применимы для создания новых перспективных видов вооружений, не разделяя их на некие «разрушительные», «деструктивные» и «дестабилизирующие» – с одной стороны или «конструктивные» или «стабилизирующие» – с другой.

Весьма маловероятно, что какое-либо государство мира захочет запретить и уничтожить в одностороннем порядке свои новые перспективные технологии военного или двойного назначения только из-за их искусственного деления каким-то иным государством или группой государств на «разрушительные» и «неразрушительные». Иными словами, разделив их на «плохие» и «хорошие».

США и НАТО следует конструктивно заниматься укреплением стратегической стабильности и деловым решением многочисленных вопросов контроля над вооружениями, выходить по ним на реальные договоренности, основанные на принципах равенства, равной и неделимой безопасности всех государств.

Автор: В.П. Козин. Источник: “ВПК”

 

От «ядерного сдерживания» до «ядерного устрашения»

Не станем ли мы в результате ближе к ядерному Апокалипсису?

В конце октября 2024 года в Москве накануне значимых для российских либералов выборов в США состоялась презентация небольшого по объёму, но значимого по содержанию издания «От сдерживания к устрашению» (М.: Молодая гвардия, 2024. - 152 с.), подготовленного тремя российскими авторами: директором по науке Института мировой военной экономики и стратегии (ИМВЭС) НИУ ВШЭ Дмитрием Трениным; адмиралом в отставке Сергеем Авакянцем, который занимает должность директора названного института, а также научным руководителем факультета мировой экономики и мировой политики НИУ ВШЭ Сергеем Карагановым.

В издании анонсировано, что оно представляет собой отредактированную для открытой печати версию соответствующего доклада, ранее представленного российскому руководству.

По мнению «Московского комсомольца», «России предложили сыграть в ядерную рулетку: три ведущих эксперта РФ явно перестарались. Караганов и Тренин предложили "устрашить" чужих - пока им удалось изумить своих». Интересно, в чём? Третий был «свадебный». 


Кто есть who

Тренин Дмитрий Витальевич, с 2008 по 2022 год занимал должность директора Московского Центра Карнеги (Министерство юстиции РФ внесло «Фонд Карнеги за международный мир»  в реестр нежелательных организаций). В настоящее время он профессор-исследователь  факультета мировой экономики и мировой политики НИУ ВШЭ.


Не собираюсь вдаваться в теоретическую дискуссию с этими авторами, которые предлагают создать обновлённую национальную ядерную доктрину России на основе стратегии «ядерного устрашения» вместо стратегии «ядерного сдерживания», поскольку считаем такую идею просто надуманной по следующим соображениям.

В английском языке термины «ядерное сдерживание» и «ядерное устрашение» имеют одно и то же написание и одинаковый военно-политический смысл: «nuclear deterrence». В период существования СССР этот термин у нас иногда переводили как «ядерное сдерживание посредством устрашения». В настоящее время используется более усечённая формулировка - «ядерное сдерживание», которая прочно закрепилась в военно-политическом лексиконе.

Складывается впечатление, что в своей брошюре авторы не до конца определились с такой формулировкой.

Хотя они настойчиво предлагают назвать нашу обновляемую ядерную доктрину в виде «стратегии устрашения», но в ряде мест своей коллективной работы они возвращаются к термину «стратегия сдерживания» или предлагают ввести в оборот некое подобие формулировки прошлых лет в виде «стратегия сдерживания-устрашения». Да и саму «стратегию сдерживания» тройка авторов расчленила на девять различных видов. Не означает ли это, что ядерная стратегия России должна иметь девять различных планов применения ядерного оружия? Ответа на данный вопрос в брошюре вы не найдёте.

Такая путаница свидетельствует о том, что авторы не совсем разобрались в своих творческих изысканиях. Возникает подозрение, что они просто хотели привлечь особое внимание к своим взглядам, поскольку не объяснили, насколько «стратегия устрашения» реально устрашит враждебно относящуюся к нам «ядерную тройку» в лице Великобритании, США и Франции.

В брошюре содержатся практические предложения по её адаптации с учётом геополитических факторов, в частности, американо-натовского, китайского, белорусского и украинского. Но все их предложения изложены в основном только в постановочном плане, то есть без раскрытия хотя бы примерного механизма их реализации. К сожалению, представленное издание содержит негативные замечания в адрес стратегии ядерного сдерживания, действующей в Российской Федерации. По их утверждению, Россия якобы придерживалась «легкомысленной ядерной доктрины с бездумно поднятым порогом применения» (так цитируется), видимо, ядерного оружия.

Их предложения сводятся к следующим ключевым направлениям.

Авторы предлагают, чтобы Россия заблаговременно предупредила потенциального противника о своём «предупредительном ядерном ударе» по нему (стр. 106). Но такая новация позволит противнику, заранее получившему подобное предупреждение, использовать своё ракетно-ядерное оружие в первом упредительном или превентивном ударе по российской территории.

Москве также предлагается создать свою «лестницу эскалации», то есть разъяснить детально, какие шаги она может предпринять в ответ на те или иные враждебные действия Запада. Опрометчивая ядерная эскалация напряжённости между Востоком и Западом - это мы уже раньше проходили. После сброса американских ядерных авиабомб на Японию в 1945 году Пентагон планировал применить ядерное оружие семь раз: в ходе опасного военного противостояния великих держав и региональных конфликтов. Слава богу, что всё это не окончилось ядерным Армагеддоном.

Авторами высказывается идея опубликовать список «первоочередных» потенциальных целей российского ядерного удара, расположенных на территории стран-членов НАТО, но без указания таких объектов на территории США (стр. 108).

В этой связи возникает вопрос: почему авторы применили выборочный метод определения целеуказаний на территории потенциальных противников и исключили из него Соединённые Штаты? Как «особо дружественного нам государства»? Так это нонсенс. Такого не будет никогда.

Не означает ли это, что российская сторона вообще не должна наносить по США ядерные удары, коль не определены объекты ядерного поражения на их территории? Почему такую инициативу должна взять на себя только Россия? Ведь меры с американской стороны, исключающие определение целей ядерного нападения на территории России, авторы издания даже не предусматривают. Догадывайтесь, мол, сами, где будет нанесён американский ядерный удар.

Следует заметить, что списки различных объектов, размещённых на территории других недружественных или враждебных государств, по которым предполагается нанести ядерный удар ядерными государствами, являются суперсекретными. Зачем тогда только одной России предлагается обнародовать названный реестр, то есть его рассекретить в отношении стран НАТО, но исключив из него Соединённые Штаты?

Преждевременной представляется инициатива авторов создать «орган или механизм координации ядерного сдерживания» между Россией и КНР (стр. 109). С какими функциями? Не уточняется. Обратите внимание и на то, что здесь не употребляется термин «ядерное устрашение».

Делается упор на том, чтобы Россия убедила КНР не наращивать свой ядерный потенциал до уровня ракетно-ядерных сил России и США (с. 113). Но ведь в этом и заключается аналогичная позиция Белого дома, который до сих пор не смог получить заверений Пекина на этот счёт.

В Вашингтоне считают, что к 2030 году ядерный арсенал Китая может сравняться с американским. Чтобы не допустить этого, военно-политическое руководство США прилагает значительные усилия, используя Россию. При этом Соединённые Штаты развернули масштабную агрессию против России, как с помощью Украины, так и напрямую. Они направляют в вооружённые силы Украины военных советников и операторов ударных систем, а также поставляют преступному киевскому режиму различные смертоносные средства, которые убивают российских граждан.

Одновременно предлагается создать «орган оперативного ядерного планирования» России и Белоруссии. С какими функциями? Три эксперта по-прежнему не поясняют. Подобное предложение представляется странным, поскольку все вопросы, касающиеся развёртывания ядерного оружия двух братских союзных государств на белорусской территории и его потенциального применения, уже детально согласованы на президентском уровне между Россией и Белоруссией.

В целях создания «пояса безопасности» на европейском континенте в районах, расположенных в стороне от западной границы Украины с её сопредельными странами, а также в интересах недопущения «эскалации украинского конфликта», авторы высказываются за применение Россией ядерного оружия в этой части Европы (стр. 48, 52). Но в этом нет особой необходимости. И вряд ли она появится в ближайшее время. К тому же, использование ядерного оружия для создания «пояса безопасности» кажется нецелесообразным. С его применением или с угрозой его применения скорее получится создать «пояс опасности».

Остаётся идея, чтобы решение о непосредственном применении ядерного оружия принимали российские органы военного управления на стратегических направлениях, командующие группировками войск и корабельными группировками ВМФ России (стр. 107).

Но такое решение является прерогативой президента России как главы государства и как Верховного главнокомандующего, что отражено в действующих директивных документах России, в том числе и в действующей ядерной доктрине России. Такой принцип применения Москвой ядерного оружия останется и в обновлённой ядерной доктрине страны. Иные лица «на местах», которых обозначают три автора, лишь технически, а не политически исполняют президентское решение о применении ядерного оружия с бортов или корпусов его носителей, которые находятся в их прямом подчинении.

Выводы с одной инициативой

Изложенные недостатки не позволяют положительно оценить подготовленную брошюру. По свидетельству газеты «Ведомости», она направила запрос в МИД России по поводу этого издания, и неназванный источник российского внешнеполитического ведомства сообщил, что представленное исследование отражает «исключительно личный взгляд авторов на геополитические процессы» и его нельзя ассоциировать «с официальной позицией России». Конечно, нельзя. Да ещё с отмеченными выше несуразицами теоретического и прикладного характера.

Реализация высказанных её авторами практических предложений нанесла бы ущерб национальной обороне и безопасности Российской Федерации. Москва не настроена делать из своей ядерной доктрины военно-стратегическую установку «устрашения». Интересы реального укрепления международного мира и глобальной безопасности, благородные цели консолидации режима стратегической стабильности требуют не наращивания разного рода «устрашений», а постепенного движения к оборонительному ядерному сдерживанию, которое никому не угрожает.

Поскольку три западные ядерные державы и некоторые другие государства, тайно или явно располагающие ядерным оружием, не желают на данном этапе взять на себя универсальное обязательство не применять ядерное оружие в первом ударе или никогда не использовать его вообще, то упомянутое здесь предложение об «оборонительном ядерном сдерживании, которое никому не угрожает» вполне могло бы быть - разумеется, в качестве промежуточного шага - официально направлено новой американской администрации после состоявшихся ноябрьских президентских выборов.

Только вот поймёт ли новая администрация победившего президента Трампа добрую волю победившего президента Путина?

Автор: Владимир Козин. Источник: Еженедельник «Звезда»

 

Очередная фальшивка Пентагона. Теперь по Ливии

26 мая Африканское командование Вооруженных сил США (АФРИКОМ) разослало в мировые СМИ пресс-релиз, посвященный, якобы, имевшей место переброске российских реактивных истребителей четвертого поколения из России в Ливию. К тексту, снабженному комментариями командующего АФРИКОМом генерала армии США Стивена Таунсенда и командующего ВВС Соединенных Штатов в Европе и Африке генерала американских ВВС Джеффа Харригиана, прилагались некие «документальные» фотографии.

В целом пресс-релиз был направлен на обвинение России в поддержке одной из сторон ливийского конфликта и стремлении «создать зону воспрещения доступа силам НАТО на южном фланге Европы». При этом пафос американских военных оказался смазан весьма сомнительной доказательной базой.

Например, генерал Таунсенд без обиняков заявил, что американцы отследили каждый шаг «русской операции» по переброске авиационной техники из России в Ливию транзитом через Сирию. Тем самым, мол, достоверно установлен факт нарушения нашей страной эмбарго, введенного ООН на поставки вооружений в Ливию в 2011 году.

Однако, если проанализировать содержание пресс-релиза АФРИКОМа в сочетании с представленными американцами фотоснимками, то оказывается, что американские военные даже не могут сказать, сколько же самолетов на самом деле оказалось на ливийской территории. И сколько типов – то ли два, то ли четыре?

В самом тексте пресс-релиза говорится лишь об одном истребителе. Видимо, потому, что на снимке ливийского аэродрома Эль-Джофра зафиксирован лишь один самолет. Причем снимок сделан так, что различить какой именно самолет на нем запечатлен, не представляется возможным. Американцы ввели в фотоснимок дополнительный квадратик, куда вывели крупный план с увеличением. Понятное дело, что в квадратике силуэт МиГ-29, то есть реактивного истребителя четвертого поколения, до начала ливийского конфликта на вооружении ВВС Джамахирии не находившегося. Что же касается летательного аппарата, изображенного на взлетно-посадочной полосе (ВПП), то остается неизвестным: что же это на самом деле? Можно только надеяться, что американцы просто увеличили некое изображение, полученное ранее с помощью своего спутника, а не воспользовались фотомонтажом.

Однако в прямой речи генерала Таунсенда в том же пресс-релизе говорится об истребителях во множественном числе.

Видимо, потому, что его подчиненные снабдили главу АФРИКОМа фотографиями шести российских самолетов: четырех МиГ-29 и двух Су-35. Причем сделаны были фото на российской авиабазе «Хмеймим». Сначала демонстрируются самолеты на ВПП, затем пустые места, оставшиеся якобы после их вылета в Ливию. 

С чего, однако, генерал Таунсенд взял, что самолеты улетели в Ливию, а не заехали, например, в ангар – непонятно. Кстати, об ангарах. Из двух из них высовывается нечто не больше булавочной иголки. Остальное скрыто под крышей ангара. И на этом строится глубокий вывод? Также непонятно, почему на ливийском аэродроме Эль-Джофра оказался, если верить американским снимкам, всего один самолет. Куда, спрашивается, делись остальные пять?

Более того, вечером 27 мая АФРИКОМ на своей странице в социальной сети «Твиттер» разместил еще две фотографии ливийского аэродрома Эль-Джофра, сделанные, якобы, еще двадцатого числа этого же месяца. На этот раз американцы углядели там два самолета, однако лишь предположительно, как им показалось, модели МиГ-29. Вместе с уверенностью в идентификации авиационной техники у специалистов Пентагона вдруг пропала и возможность увеличивать изображение. Вернее, она видимо отсутствовала у них изначально, иначе бы не было никаких слов вроде «предположительно». Но тогда откуда взялся самолет с силуэтом, похожим на МиГ-29 крупным планом в вынесенном квадрате на фотографии взлетной полосы Эль-Джофры, появившейся ранее вместе с пресс-релизом?

Итак, каким же образом американская сторона отслеживала чуть ли не каждый шаг России в этом предприятии, если она до сих пор не может определиться, о каком количестве самолетов надо говорить?

Странно выглядит и утверждение генерала Таунсенда о закрашенных опознавательных знаках, в то время как на фотографиях самолетов в воздухе, также опубликованных АФРИКОМом, знаки принадлежности к ВКС России отчетливо видны. Сделать такие фотоснимки американские летчики или беспилотники могли и в сирийском небе, где российская авиация выполняет задачи по воздушному патрулированию. А для пресс-релиза, похоже, использовали первые попавшиеся фотоальбомы.

Представляется, что исходник для официального заявления структур Пентагона – это вброс канадского филиала информационного агентства «Блумберг» от 20 мая этого года о появлении в Ливии четырех самолетов МиГ российского производства. Этот фейк со ссылкой на американское издание был подхвачен рядом арабских информационных ресурсов, поддерживающих так называемое «Правительство национального согласия» в Триполи, однако на сайте первоисточника публикация была удалена.

Ливийская национальная армия (ЛНА) раскритиковала заявления американских военных о том, что в страну прибыли российские военные самолеты. «Мы находим странными подобные заявления, в которых упоминается о повышении боеготовности армии, о том, что у нас российские самолеты различных видов», –  прокомментировал в эфире телеканалу «Аль-Арабия» официальный представитель ЛНА Ахмед аль-Мисмари.

Другим примером того, что американское заявление, помеченное, к слову, меткой «Для немедленного опубликования», было состряпано впопыхах и сшито белыми нитками – стало стремление генерала Таунсенда представить дело таким образом, как будто Россия направила самолеты для авиаподдержки пресловутой «ЧВК «Вагнер», которая, дескать, воюет на ливийской земле. При этом американский генерал трижды подчеркивает, что «ЧВК «Вагнер» спонсируется российским государством. Кто прочитал ему эту сказку?

Само название «ЧВК «Вагнер» – это всего лишь медийный миф. В отличие от американских частных военных компаний «Блэкуотер» или «Академи», прославившихся преступлениями против мирного населения в Ираке и Афганистане, организации под названием «ЧВК «Вагнер» в природе не существует. В России вообще нет частных военных компаний. США в данном случае меряют по себе. Полной чушью являются утверждения американских СМИ, что некие российские самолеты поступили в подчинение этой несуществующей «ЧВК «Вагнер». Такого никогда не будет, чтобы боевым самолетам ВВС какой-то страны отдавали приказы какие-то – пусть даже реально существующие – частные вооружение формирования.

Более того, также как и в случае с самолетами, генералы ВС США не стесняются апеллировать к ничем документально не подтвержденным данным как к непреложной истине. Ведь реальных доказательств присутствия в Ливии россиян нет. Есть только не верифицируемые вбросы в социальных сетях на эту тему. И это в отличие от боевиков из группировок «Сирийской свободной армии», обученных и вооруженных американцами и переброшенных в Ливию для участия в боевых действиях на стороне ПНС по контракту с турецкой частной военной компанией «Садат». Но этот факт поддержки одной из воюющих сторон и нарушения международного эмбарго американцев почему-то не смущает.

В итоге в сухом остатке имеется ключевая фраза генерала ВВС США Джеффа Харригиена – русские, мол, хотят создать на ливийском побережье на долгосрочной основе зону воспрещения доступа и маневра силам НАТО. Получается, что американцы в очередной раз пытаются переложить ситуацию с больной головы на здоровую.

Ввергнув Ливию в пучину гражданской войны ради облегчения себе этого самого силового доступа на побережье Северной Африки, Соединенные Штаты теперь пугают своих союзников по трансатлантическому альянсу, часть из которых поддерживает Хафтара, а часть – ПНС. Боясь утратить ведущую роль в решении европейских вопросов, Вашингтон включает привычный образ «российской угрозы», дабы напомнить своим союзникам по Североатлантическому союзу, «кто в доме является главным» и с кем нужно согласовывать свои геополитические интересы.

К слову сказать, если фельдмаршал Хафтар захочет обновить свой авиационный парк, то он может обратиться к любому государству, которое ему симпатизирует. Самолеты советского производства, в том числе модернизированные, имеются как в республиках бывшего СССР, так и в восточноевропейских странах, вошедших в военный блок НАТО. Пример поставок ЛНА зенитно-пушечных ракетных комплексов «Панцирь» Объединенными Арабскими Эмиратами говорит о том, что в этом деле возможны любые схемы – даже Соединенные Штаты располагают эскадрильей МиГов, которые они используют, якобы, исключительно в учебных целях.

Итак, в этом «ливийском сюжете» налицо очередная американская фальшивка. Но не истории, а современности.

Каковы же реальные цели этой очередной пропагандистской шумихи Пентагона применительно к ситуации в Ливии? Они предприняты для прикрытия собственных поставок вооружений в регион и американское военное присутствие, дестабилизирующее обстановку в районе Средиземного моря, а также для того, чтобы столкнуть Россию и Турцию не только в Сирии, но и на территории Ливии. Кстати говоря, периодически посещающая названную акваторию американская атомная подводная лодка «Флорида» класса «Огайо», переоборудованная под установку на ней 154 крылатых ракет, имеет гораздо большую суммарную огневую мощь, чем несколько боевых самолетов. Не говоря уже об авианосных ударных группах ВМС США, постоянно находящихся в районе Средиземного моря, которые несут на борту десятки боевых самолетов «двойного назначения», то есть оснащенных как обычными, так и ядерными видами вооружений.

Автор: Владимир Козин -  ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ

 

ПРО США и НАТО мешает движению вперёд

Редакция Интернет-сайта РИСИ обратилась с просьбой к главному советнику-руководителю Группы советников директора РИСИ, члену-корреспонденту РАЕН В.П.Козину, который одновременно является членом Экспертного совета Межведомственной группы по взаимодействию с НАТО в сфере ПРО, прокомментировать  сущность и характер разногласий, существующих между Россией и США по данному вопросу.

Вопрос: Как известно, в марте этого года США объявили о некоторой корректировке своих подходов к созданию системы ПРО. Были ли в них учтены российские озабоченности?

Ответ:  Скорее всего, нет, хотя 15 марта этого года глава Пентагона Чак Хейгел выступил с заявлением о некоторой «реконфигурации» этой системы – как в региональном, так и в глобальном масштабе. Он даже намекнул на то, что США, якобы, отказались от реализации четвертого этапа «Европейского поэтапного адаптивного подхода» (ЕПАП) к развертыванию системы ПРО. Спустя некоторое время в адрес Российской Федерации посыпались упреки в том, что российская сторона, мол, игнорирует анонсированные изменения, в то время как они, дескать, могли бы снять ранее высказывавшиеся с ее стороны озабоченности и улучшить российско-американские и российско-натовские отношения.

Для лучшего понимания мотивов Вашингтона, объявившего о планах «реконфигурации» противоракетной инфраструктуры, следует сказать, что в официальных комментариях представителей Белого дома, последовавших сразу после названного выступления министра обороны США, было четко заявлено, что новые планы нынешней американской администрации никак не связаны с позицией Российской Федерации по этой проблеме. При этом с американской стороны было указано на совершенно иные причины «реконфигурации» ее системы перехвата баллистических и иных ракет, а именно, на бюджетные и инженерно-технические. Это обстоятельство неоднократно отмечалось официальными американскими представителями и в дальнейшем. Поэтому, попытки Вашингтона искусственно привязать объявленные меры к российско-американскому или российско-натовскому контексту выглядят, по меньшей мере, некорректными.

Вопрос: Похоже, это просматривается как политическая сторона проблемы, но ведь у нее есть и военно-технические аспекты, не так ли?

Ответ: Разумеется. Поэтому и оценочная позиция российской стороны заявления министра обороны США от 15 марта основывается на скрупулезном военно-техническом анализе и его потенциальных последствиях.

А такой анализ показывает, что потенциалом перехвата российских межконтинентальных баллистических ракет наземного базирования и баллистических ракет подводных лодок будут обладать американские средства ПРО, планируемые к развертыванию в ходе реализации третьего этапа ЕПАП, а ограниченным потенциалом даже раньше. Российская сторона неоднократно демонстрировала западным военным и гражданским представителям результаты соответствующего математического моделирования в привязке к местности, а также с учетом скорости и дальности полета американских ракет-перехватчиков. Справедливость таких результатов была подтверждена и расчетами независимых зарубежных специалистов.

Заключение российских военных специалистов однозначно показывает: усовершенствованные противоракеты США типа «Стэндард-3» модификации 2А с оперативного противоракетного комплекса в Польше, который будет развернут к 2018 году, а также американских кораблей с ударно-боевыми противоракетными средствами, которые могут заходить и уже появляются в Балтийском, Баренцевом, Норвежском и Черном морях, способны осуществлять перехват отдельных типов российских баллистических ракет. Более того, наличие «ограниченного» потенциала уничтожения МБР и БРПЛ у названных ракет-перехватчиков, которые составят основу третьего этапа ЕПАП, не отрицается даже Управлением по ПРО Министерства обороны Соединенных Штатов, которое профессионально занимается внедрением системы ПРО. При этом надо учитывать, что Пентагон тщательно скрывает их истинные тактико-техническое характеристики, которые со временем однозначно будут совершенствоваться.

А поскольку планы военно-политического руководства США относительно развертывания этих перехватчиков на территории Румынии и Польши, а также одновременно на борту американских крейсеров и эсминцев, курсирующих вокруг европейского континента и у наших дальневосточных берегов, остаются неизменными, то российские озабоченности по этому поводу ни в коей мере не снимаются. Тем более, если учесть, что такие средства ПРО будут действовать в органической «сцепке» с американскими тактическими ядерными средствами, развернутыми в Европе. Нельзя забывать, что все это средства передового базирования США.

Вопрос: Можно ли считать, что США не отказались от создания ракет-перехватчиков «Стэндард-3» модификации 2 Б, которые по своим тактико-техническим характеристикам превосходят все предыдущие варианты ракет-перехватчиков «третьего эшелона»?

Ответ: Ваш вопрос справедлив. Дело в том, что Соединенные Штаты не собираются отказываться от производства таких ракет: НИОКР на них не прекращаются, а их производство просто отодвигается на период после 2022 года, на который продлевается ЕПАП. Таким образом, Вашингтон и не собирается отказываться от четвертого этапа этого амбициозного плана. Фактически же его полная реализация просто откладывается на два года из-за финансово-технических трудностей. При этом надо иметь в виду, что военно-политическое руководство США настроено на разработку последующего плана типа ЕПАП даже после 2030 года.

Выполнение планов США и НАТО по созданию противоракетной инфраструктуры в Европе и ряде других регионов мира, воспринимаются нами как действия, уже сейчас ведущие к подрыву российского потенциала ядерного сдерживания.

Вопрос: Некоторые эксперты считают, что система ПРО США это «виртуальная реальность» и что она вообще «не существует». Так ли это?

Ответ: Увы, она уже фактическая реальность. Выполнен первый этап и осуществляется второй этап ЕПАП. В настоящее время США и их союзники располагают высокомобильными противоракетными средствами в количествах, явно превышающих потребности парирования ракетных угроз. Не более чем двум десяткам ракет Ирана и КНДР, имеющим дальность действия от одной до двух тысяч километров, противостоят около двух сотен перехватчиков «Стэндард-3» различных модификаций, ракет-перехватчиков наземного базирования на континентальной части США, а также системы ПРО ТВД, а вместе с зенитно-ракетными комплексами «Пэтриот» суммарное количество американских средств ПРО уже переваливает за тысячу. Кстати, замечу: США поставляют эти «Пэтриоты» в 12 стран мира: и натовским, и не натовским государствам. К моменту завершения ЕПАП общее количество таких ракет-перехватчиков возрастет в еще большей степени.

Как известно, ВМС США с системами ПРО уже давно приступили к постоянному патрулированию морей, прилегающих к Европе, а также в АТР и зоне Персидского залива, а 28 октября этого года Пентагон заложил первый камень в фундамент противоракетного комплекса в Румынии – на военно-воздушной базе в Девеселу.

По состоянию на октябрь с.г. Пентагон уже провел 34 испытания ракет-перехватчиков морского базирования, из которых 28 были успешными. А в целом, с учетом всех программ испытаний этих средств, американцы провели 80 испытаний, из них 64 были успешными, что составляет 80% от всех пусков. Это высокий показатель. В Министерстве обороны США активно работают над его повышением.

Вопрос: Какие еще действия США в области ПРО беспокоят российское военно-политическое руководство в первую очередь?

Ответ: Таких действий немало.  Американская сторона неоднократно пыталась нас убеждать, что ракеты-перехватчики даже в модификации 2 Б неспособны поражать МБР на начальном этапе их полета. Но действия американских и японских боевых кораблей с системами ПРО во время пусков северокорейских ракет «Ынха-3» в начале этого года, а также уничтожение прямым попаданием «с одного выстрела» американского разведывательного спутника, вышедшего из строя, еще в 2009 году, заставляют серьезно усомниться в представленных расчетах. Заметно также, что американские военные через некоторых российских исследователей пытаются внушить российской стороне представление о «незначительной» скорости таких ракет-перехватчиков. Но эта тактика дезинформации хорошо известна и никто «на удочку» у нас не попадается.

Обоснованную озабоченность у нас вызывает планируемое размещение установок вертикального пуска «Мк-41» в виде комплексов ПРО, переделанных из морских установок боевой информационно-управляющей системы «Иджис» («Эгида»), которые Вашингтон планирует установить в Румынии к 2015 году и в Польше к 2018. Дело в том, что данные установки одновременно применяются на кораблях ВМС США для пусков крылатых ракет большой дальности, которые пока не ограничиваются международными соглашениями.

Таким образом, противоракетные комплексы США в Румынии и Польше потенциально могут быть использованы для размещения ударных средств передового базирования класса «земля-земля». Одних словесных заверений, которые идут из Вашингтона, что «это не против России», явно недостаточно. Данная проблема усугубляется тем, что недавно американские ВМС разместили заявку на разработку технологий ударного гиперзвукового оружия, которое также можно будет размещать в тех же универсальных пусковых установках на боевых кораблях, что и ракеты-перехватчики «Стэндард-3».

Кроме того, для российской стороны не представляется «безобидным» заявление шефа Пентагона Чака Хейгела об увеличении количества стратегических ракет-перехватчиков на континентальной части США: сначала с 30 до 44, а затем и более 60 с учетом появления третьего района ПРО на их территории – после Аляски и Калифорнии. Принимая во внимание весь комплекс американских противоракетных средств после реализации ЕПАП и формирующегося неядерного контрсилового потенциала большой дальности (в том числе четыре американские атомные субмарины с 616 крылатыми ракетами на борту) можно сказать, что все эти средства представляют существенный стратегический силовой инструмент для прикрытия территории США и их союзников. Тем более, если учесть, что США является единственной страной в мире, сохраняющей возможность нанесения первого ядерного удара.

Вопрос: Есть ли у нас еще надежды убедить американцев в свертывании плана ПРО? Или же это иллюзии, которые следует забыть?

Ответ: Надежды есть, но они крайне малые. И по мере расширения географии размещения ударных средств ПРО США в отдельных странах и в Мировом океане, а также наращивания их количества эти надежды будут таять все быстрее – как мартовский лед.

Факты же таковы, что США и НАТО в целом упорно отказываются зафиксировать в какой-то официальной, юридически обязывающей, а не в простой декларативной форме, саму идею о необходимости обеспечить соответствие параметров развертываемой глобальной системы ПРО заявленной цели: защитить себя от ракетных угроз. С другой же стороны, они явно стремятся иметь полную свободу действий в плане количественного и качественного наращивания противоракетного потенциала. В этой связи использование ими аргумента о важности противодействия «ракетной угрозе Тегерана и Пхеньяна» выглядит просто как предлог для создания глобального «противоракетного щита», прикрывающего собственные ракетно-ядерные средства.

В этой связи позиция Российской Федерации в отношении противоракетных планов США у своего «порога», а также в АТР, на Ближнем Востоке и в зоне Персидского залива является неизменной: программа ПРО США имела и по-прежнему имеет в первую очередь явную антироссийскую и антикитайскую направленность. Она представляет непосредственную угрозу российским и китайским СЯС, что вызывает и у Москвы, и у Пекина потребность в принятии адекватных ответных мер. Легко представить себе ситуацию, если бы Россия и КНР развернули свои ядерные средства тактического назначения и ударные противоракетные системы у границ США в таком же объеме, как это делают они. В частности, снять российские озабоченности может только заключение юридически обязывающего соглашения, дающие соответствующие гарантии ненаправленности (а еще лучше: «неприменения») американских средств ПРО против российских СЯС. Вполне естественно, что такие гарантии должна дать США и НАТО и Российская Федерация. США и НАТО должны одновременно прекратить создавать свои базы ПРО в Румынии и Польше, а также не направлять свои корабли с ракетами-перехватчиками к берегам России.

Вопрос: Этим летом Вы опубликовали монографию «Эволюция противоракетной обороны США и позиция России» в 384 страницы, которую одна из центральных российских газет назвала «Правда о «противоракетном щите». Вашу книгу уже прочитали наши военные? Что говорят, что советуют?

Ответ: Эту книгу позитивно оценили и военные, и гражданские российские специалисты, которые заботятся о необходимости укрепления обороноспособности нашей великой страны. Об этом свидетельствуют публикации, появившиеся в газетах «Красная звезда» и «Независимое военное обозрение», а также выступления ряда специалистов высокого ранга на презентации монографии, состоявшейся в октябре в РИСИ. Один специалист, давно занимающейся проблематикой ПРО, назвал ее «краткой энциклопедией по ПРО», а другой – «важным изданием, которое позволяет представить себе реальные масштабы системы ПРО США». Пока я не увидел какой-то реакции на нее в государствах, которые участвуют в американском проекте создания глобальной системы ПРО: мне это было бы весьма любопытно услышать.

Мне известно, что она также вызвала интерес в штаб-квартире НАТО и США, а также в Европарламенте. С учетом этого, монография в полном объеме уже переведена на английский язык (ранее на английском было распространено только ее краткое содержание: переведенные две главы из четырех). К книге проявили интерес посольства ряда государств, аккредитованные в Москве. Разумеется, я приму с благодарностью конструктивные замечания и предложения со стороны любого исследователя, лишь бы они соответствовали действительности, а не говорили о том, что они продиктованы только чувством зависти потенциальных рецензентов, которые до сих пор не выпустили ни одной существенной публикации по данной проблематике. Готов ответить также возможным критикам вышедшей работы, если они изложат свои замечания в письменном виде. Всегда это делаю: конкретно и предметно, чтобы рецензенты видели свои собственные огрехи. Обсуждение же любых работ любых авторов без их участия беспредметно, поскольку право на ответ универсально.

В этой связи также замечу, что при изложении позиции Вашингтона и штаб-квартиры НАТО по ПРО в основном использовал в книге первичные источники: официальные, то есть проверенные данные, которые появились в публично доступных документах Конгресса, Государственного департамента и Министерства обороны США, а также НАТО.

Разумеется, продолжу работу над этой темой, которой уделил внимание последние 27 лет, начиная с анализа статьи одного американского автора о последствиях воздействия «стратегической оборонной инициативы» Рональда Рейгана на Договор по ПРО.

Источник: РИСИ 06.11.2013

Пентагон готовится к «орбитальным войнам»

США наращивают усилия по милитаризации околоземного пространства, о чём свидетельствуют их военные стратегии и практические дела.

Нынешним летом Соединённые Штаты намерены провести учение, посвящённое отработке действий по ведению «орбитальных войн». Об этом сообщило со ссылкой на Пентагон американское интернет-издание Breaking defense. Редакция «Красной звезды» попросила прокомментировать эту информацию политолога Владимира Козина, члена-корреспондента Академии военных наук России, автора монографий «Военная космическая политика США: её главные направления и перспективные потенциалы» и «Космические силы США: их ключевые задачи и будущие потенциалы».

– Владимир Петрович, США готовятся к учению, в ходе которого намерены проверить свои возможности по ведению космических войн. Что вы скажете в этой связи?

– Действительно, по сообщениям американских информагентств, космические силы США, которые были созданы в декабре 2019 года при президенте Дональде Трампе, намерены нынешним летом провести учение, получившее название Red Skies («Красные небеса»). В кратком виде главная его цель состоит в том, чтобы отработать действия по защите национальных космических объектов и нанесению удара по космическим целям противника. По сути, речь идёт о проверке способности американских космических сил по ведению «орбитальных войн».

Это учение, проводимое впервые, организует командование космических операций. Основным его участником станет Space Delta 9 – подразделение космических сил, задачей которого является ведение «орбитальных войн». В частности, оно ответственно за подготовку, планирование и использование выделенных сил и средств для проведения операций по защите и представлению органам высшего звена управления предложений по реагированию, сдерживанию, а при необходимости – уничтожению угроз в космическом пространстве.

Кроме того, «Дельта-9» обеспечивает работу системы контроля космического пространства. Также это подразделение проводит эксперименты на орбите для демонстрации технологий в интересах космических сил США. «Дельта-9» была создана 24 июля 2020 года, её штаб-квартира находится на базе космических сил Шривер в штате Колорадо.

– Вы сказали, что такое учение будет проведено Соединёнными Штатами впервые. А что, ранее ими не проводились военно-космические учения?

– Проводились, но, как утверждается командованием космических сил США, они по своему содержанию были иными, чем «Красные небеса». В частности, таким учением является Black Skies («Чёрные небеса»), на котором отрабатываются вопросы ведения радиоэлектронной борьбы и защиты космических объектов США от их глушения потенциальными противниками.

Это учение было проведено на военной базе Петерсон в штате Колорадо под руководством космического командования по подготовке личного состава и обеспечению готовности оперативных космических сил. Оно прошло в сентябре прошлого года и в начале этого года. Третье учение названной серии намечено провести осенью 2023 года. В нём будут задействованы средства РЭБ и космической разведки, а также проведения киберопераций.

По свидетельству руководства космических сил США, особенность названных учений заключается в том, что они максимально приближены к реальной космической обстановке. И соответственно, в их ходе отрабатываются реальные, а не условные задачи, в том числе связанные с использованием электромагнитных излучений против космических объектов.

В следующем году, по словам главы командования космической подготовки и готовности генерал-майора Шона Брэттона, будет проведена уже третья серия учений, которые пройдут под названием Blue Skies («Голубые небеса»). Главным участником этих учений, которые будут сосредоточены на защите космических систем США от кибератак противника, станет подразделение «Дельта-6».

– Всё это свидетельствует о серьёзной и реальной подготовке Соединённых Штатов осуществлять масштабные военные операции в околоземном пространстве, которые, судя по американской военно-космической стратегии, направлены в первую очередь против Российской Федерации и КНР…

– Совершенно верно. Начиная с Трампа, который объявил околоземное пространство ещё одной областью военных действий и заявил о необходимости достижения американского превосходства в этой сфере, США активно следуют таким путём. Они разработали программу наращивания своего военного присутствия в околоземном пространстве, изложенную в космической стратегии и других руководящих документах, создали космические силы, превратив их в новый вид вооружённых сил США, усиленно разрабатывают и размещают в космосе соответствующие аппараты и объекты.

На эти цели выделяются огромные средства. Так, бюджетный запрос космических сил на 2024 финансовый год, который начинается с 1 октября этого года, составил 30 миллиардов долларов, что почти в два раза больше расходов, предусмотренных на нынешний финансовый год. Они пойдут на реализацию 12 программ использования космического пространства в военных целях. И в частности, на разработку шести типов ударных космических вооружений и шести систем управления орбитальными космическими группировками, а также на создание более устойчивой группировки спутников слежения за целями, которые находятся на космических орбитах и на Земле. В ближайшие годы планируется развернуть в космосе ударные компоненты ПРО.

– Говоря о наращивании боевого потенциала космических сил США, наверное, нельзя не подчеркнуть, что для этого используются и коммерческие средства. Причём они весьма широко задействованы в украинском конфликте…

– Вы правы. Выступая 13 апреля на конференции Planet Explore 2023, начальник космических операций космических сил США генерал Брэдли Ченс Зальцман заявил, что роль коммерческих компаний в национальной обороне значительно возросла. При этом он подчеркнул, что партнёрство космических сил с коммерческой отраслью «является одной из самых важных задач, которую мы должны решить».

Ранее предшественник Зальцмана, генерал Джон Реймонд (ушёл в отставку 1 января 2023 г.), отмечал, что возглавляемые им космические силы оказывают помощь ВСУ. По его словам, которые приводит американский журнал Air Force Magazine, космическое пространство имеет решающее значение для ведения современных боевых действий с точки зрения как точного наведения оружия с помощью глобальной навигационной системы GPS, так и спутникового наблюдения и разведки. Он привёл пример с коммерческой спутниковой системой Starlink, принадлежащей компании SpaceX Илона Маска. «Спутники Starlink, пролетающие на высоте до 130 миль над полем боя, обеспечивают высокоскоростной доступ в интернет, позволяя украинским войскам на передовой линии поддерживать связь с командованием», – утверждал Реймонд.

В этой связи следует отметить, что военно-космическая разведка США располагает собственной крупной орбитальной группировкой, которая посредством расширения использования SAR-спутников стремится получать актуальные снимки территории Украины и линии боевого соприкосновения в режиме реального времени с высоким разрешением. Но для рассекречивания изображений требуется время, а частные компании могут делать такое незамедлительно. Поэтому Пентагон уже сейчас пользуется услугами частных компаний и намерен расширять их привлечение для поддержки ВСУ.

Со своей стороны частные компании готовы, как заявил исполнительный вице-президент компании Maxar Technologies Тони Фрейзер, предлагать Пентагону новые услуги. В частности, индустрия спутниковых изображений пытается, по его словам, реагировать на новые потребности военных.

Естественно, наша страна не может безучастно наблюдать за этими действиями. Заместитель директора Департамента по нераспространению и контролю над вооружениями МИД России Константин Воронцов заявил, что США и их союзники на Украине используют для решения военных задач компоненты гражданской инфраструктуры в космосе, в том числе коммерческой, поэтому она может стать законной целью для ответного удара. По словам российского дипломата, которые приводит ТАСС, провокационное применение Вашингтоном гражданских спутников вызывает вопросы в контексте Договора о космосе и требует серьёзного осуждения международным сообществом.

– А как в целом сочетается военная деятельность США в космическом пространстве с международными соглашениями и договорами?

– Прежде всего следует отметить, что на официальных переговорных площадках США и НАТО блокируют все международные инициативы, направленные на сохранение космического пространства в качестве зоны, в которой запрещалось бы ведение любых видов «звёздных войн» с помощью ударных космических вооружений. И в то же время они наращивают свои усилия по милитаризации околоземного пространства, о чём свидетельствуют их военные стратегии, политические заявления и конкретные практические дела в области военного космоса.

В этой связи возникает угроза переноса в околоземное пространство гонки вооружений, в том числе противоракетных и ударных космических вооружений, что чревато самыми серьёзными последствиями для человечества. Поэтому Россия и США, а также другие космические державы должны принять конкретные и взаимоприемлемые меры, поддерживаемые мировым сообществом, по сохранению космоса мирной средой для его дальнейшего исследования и использования также в мирных целях.

Разумеется, различные военные спутники разведывательного, коммуникационного, информационного, исследовательского и иного характера, не выполняющие боевых задач ударного действия, могут по-прежнему размещаться и использоваться на космических орбитах.

При этом околоземное пространство должно оставаться свободным от любого потенциального конфликта. Его следует признать зоной, свободной от вооружённых конфликтов и развёртывания в нём ударных вооружений любого вида и предназначения.

Беседовал Владимир Кузарь. Источник:  «Красная звезда»

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Пентагон рвется в космос

30 января ЦВПИ МГИМО МИД РФ провёл очередную сессию ситуационного анализа-совещания, посвящённого перспективам развития исследований военно-политической обстановки мире в кооперации с ведущими экспертами страны. Вопросы текущих военно-политических проблем и теоретико-методологических аспектов их решения традиционно обсуждали эксперты МГИМО, представители ВАГШ ВС РФ, Совета Безопасности РФ, 46 ЦНИИ Министерства обороны, Рособоронэкспорта и МИД РФ. Модерировал мероприятие директор Центра военно-политических исследований профессор А.И. Подберезкин.

Темой встречи стала презентация монографии члена-корреспондента РАВН и РАЕН, ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ МГИМО В. П. Козина «Военная космическая политика США: ключевые направления и будущие потенциалы» («U.S. Military Space Policy: Key Guidelines and Future Capabilities»). Эта 312-страничная научная работа, изданная на английском языке, вышла из печати в декабре прошлого года.

Особенностью названной монографии является то, что в хронологическом плане она охватывает современную политику США в данной сфере, которая сформировалась в первые три года президентства Д. Трампа. Исследование носит прикладной характер. В нем использованы самые последние документы и материалы американской стороны по названной проблематике, в том числе директивы нынешнего главы Белого дома и документы Пентагона.

В монографии в тесной увязке проанализированы три главные вектора развития американских ударно-боевых и информационно-разведывательных потенциалов космического базирования: действующие военно-стратегические  установки Соединенных Штатов в этой сфере; военно-техническая составляющая их Космических сил (U.S. Space Force), выделяемых в самостоятельный шестой вид вооруженных сил страны, а также масштабы финансирования этого проекта в обозримой перспективе.

Руководство Пентагона считает, что новые Космические силы США будут окончательно сформированы к середине 2021 года, что опередит по срокам соответствующие планы Д. Трампа.

С другой стороны, в монографии показана негативная роль США и их дипломатии в поиске конструктивного решения двух тесно связанных между собой проблем, реализация которых создала бы международно-правовые барьеры для блокирования намерений по превращению космоса в зону военных конфликтов: предотвращение размещения оружия в космосе и отказ от размещения первыми оружия в космическом пространстве.

В книге делается упор на создании новых Космических сил США и особенности их боевого применения в будущем. Среди пяти главных задач этой обновляемой космической структуры помимо задач общего характера (например, «обеспечение национальных интересов страны») формулируются стратегические установки об «обеспечении беспрепятственного доступа в космос» и ведение в нем «боевых действий», а также использование космоса в военных целях по всем трем возможным направлениям, а именно: применение противоспутниковых и иных ударно-боевых систем космического базирования в самом космосе, а также осуществление военных действий из космоса в направлении Земли и с нее против объектов, выведенных в космическое пространство.

Отдельный раздел издания посвящен планам США об использовании космоса в качестве площадки для размещения ударных компонентов системы ПРО, что дополнит и без того их разветвленную инфраструктуру перехвата баллистических и крылатых ракет, а также гиперзвуковых планирующих блоков наземного, морского и воздушного базирования.

Новое издание содержит большое количество фактов, связанных с испытаниями в интересах Пентагона беспилотной многофункциональной космической платформы «Х-37-В» длительного и многоразового использования.

Администрация президента Д. Трампа планирует расходовать больше денежных средств на военный космос, чем его предшественник Б. Обама. На поэтапное развитие Космических сил США в 2020 финансовом году выделено 14,1 млрд. долларов, что на 14 процентов больше, чем в 2019 финансовом году.

Автор приходит к выводу, что размещение американского оружия в космосе может быть направлено для нанесения превентивного ракетно-ядерного удара по России, КНР или любому другому государству мира, а также для уничтожения различных видов ракет на ранних стадиях их полета, а также для усиления силового потенциала вооруженных сил США в целом.

Отдельный раздел содержит анализ политико-дипломатических усилий России, направленных на то, чтобы космическое пространство использовалось в мирных целях, в интересах всего человечества.

Вместе с тем, по мнению Владимира Козина, с учетом названных фактов и обстоятельств, а также готовности США и НАТО использовать космическую среду в наступательных военных операциях против многих государств мира, в том числе против России,  Российской Федерации необходимо усилить свою информационно-разведывательную и ударно-боевую группировку космического и наземного базирования в интересах всестороннего контролирования военной космической деятельности. Одновременно представляется важным, как считает эксперт по контролю над вооружениями, активизировать информационно-разъяснительную работу в ООН и на других международных площадках с резкой критикой военной космической политики Соединенных Штатов, которая может вызвать масштабное силовое противостояние многих космических государств в этой важной сфере человеческой деятельности.

Очередной ситуационный анализ запланирован к проведению  13 февраля. 

Переговоры Владимира Путина и Джозефа Байдена

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "Пятая студия" на канале "Россия 24".

Владимира Путина и Джо Байден общаются по телефону уже второй раз за месяц. Основная тема и в этот раз – переговоры по снятию напряженности в отношениях России и Запада. Нынешние переговоры проходят по инициативе Владимира Путина. По сути, они пролог к серии встреч в Женеве между российскими и западными дипломатами, которые начнутся 10 января.


В.П. Козин: “Переговоры [России в тройственном формате: США, НАТО, ОБСЕ] не должны быть длинными. 10, 12 и 13 января – это все, продолжения не будет.  Сразу будет понятно, что хотят в НАТО…  США очень хорошо знают термин “средства передового базирования”. Думаю, что они это поймут. Иначе они получат точно такой же термин – только относительно своей собственной территории”.


Эфир от 31 декабря.

Переговоры с США по ядерной тематике сейчас нецелесообразны

17-18 октября Государственная Дума успешно провела три слушания по законопроекту об отзыве Россией ратификации Договора о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний (ДВЗЯИ), и 18 октября приняла соответствующий закон, которым отменяется статья 1 закона «О ратификации Договора о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний», которая содержит положение о ратификации договора, подписанного от имени Российской Федерации в Нью-Йорке в сентябре 1996 года. Закон был принят единогласно всеми депутатами, которые присутствовала на заседании.

Вопрос о необходимости отзыва ратификации был поднят Президентом России Владимиром Путиным на заседании дискуссионного клуба «Валдай» в начале октября этого года.

Обращает на себя практически полное единодушие депутатского корпуса, которое проявилось на стадии разработки первоначального проекта этого законопроекта – под ним подписались 438 депутатов, которые находились в тот период времени в Москве, из 450 законодателей полного списка. Это рекорд в истории внесения подобных документов в Государственную Думу.

Из пояснительной записки к законопроекту следовало, что отзыв его ратификационной грамоты был необходим для устранения дисбаланса между Россией и США относительно объема обязательств по этому договору. В то время как Россия ратифицировала его еще в 2000 году, американская сторона до сих пор не обеспечила этого процесса. Причина? В военно-политическом руководстве США уже давно идут разговоры о расконсервации испытательного ядерного полигона в штате Невада с целью проверки новых ядерных боезарядов стратегического назначения.

Председатель Государственной Думы Вячеслав Володин заявил, что решение по отзыву ратификации ДВЗЯИ принято исключительно в интересах нашей страны и всего мира, построенного на основе стабильности, безопасности и справедливости для всех.

В США по поводу принятого решения об отзыве ратификации ДВЗЯИ российской стороной возник переполох и даже нескрываемое возмущение.   А где раньше были американские лидеры, которые не допускали его ратификацию, начиная с 1996 года, вплоть до настоящего времени? Чем можно объяснить нежелание американской Ассоциации по контролю над вооружениями (КНВ) критиковать Вашингтон, который почти 27 лет уклонялся от ратификации обозначенного договора?

Надо признать, что не снижают угрозу развязывания ракетно-ядерной войны ведущими государствами «трансатлантической солидарности» и два других действующих международных договорных акта в виде Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия (ДНЯО), который нарушается Соединенными Штатами путем развертывания ими ядерных вооружений наземного базирования в Бельгии, Италии, Нидерландах, Турции и ФРГ, начиная с середины пятидесятых годов прошлого века. Никто из ядерной «девятки» пока не присоединился к Договору о запрещении ядерного оружия (ДЗЯО), который уже вступил в силу.

Нынешний процесс в сфере контроля над вооружениями в целом находится практически на нулевом уровне, что произошло в результате бездействия и целенаправленных акций США и ведущих стран-членов НАТО. Поэтому есть глубокие сомнения в том, что в ближайшие годы на указанном направлении может быть достигнут какой-то заметный прорыв. Это объясняется тем, что Вашингтон негативно относится к возобновлению конструктивных переговоров по этой проблематике и занял отрицательную позицию по 15 ключевым проблемам, которые относятся к КНВ.

За последние годы американская сторона в одностороннем порядке вышла из четырех договоров, относящихся к ядерному и неядерному оружию; отказалась подписывать и ратифицировать три договора из этой серии; грубо нарушила и продолжает нарушать еще четыре многосторонних договора; отказалась вообще обсуждать с Россией еще четыре потенциальных договорных акта (см. ниже таблицу о таких нарушениях).

В настоящее время вряд ли целесообразно возвращение к этой проблематике совместно с Соединенными Штатами в условиях масштабной вооруженной агрессии, развязанной против Российской Федерации под управлением и плотным руководством Вашингтона. Россия также должна учитывать призыв комиссии при американском Конгрессе, что США, мол, должны быть готовы к одновременной войне с Россией и Китаем, в том числе к ядерной.

Возобновлению процесса по КНВ также препятствуют шесть ключевых американских военных стратегий, одобренных администрацией Дж. Байдена. Они носят агрессивно-наступательный характер в отношении России и КНР, а действующая ядерная военно-стратегическая установка США предусматривает применение против России и КНР первого ракетно-ядерного удара, усиленного средствами глобальной системы ПРО и силами общего назначения.

Соединенные Штаты и их ближайшие союзники по НАТО резко усилили свои ракетно-ядерные и противоракетные вооружения, а также силы общего назначения, которые относятся к средствам передового базирования, то есть развернутых в непосредственной близости России. Этот термин – «средства передового базирования» – практически исчез из российского военно-политического лексикона, хотя он является правомерным при квалификации военной активности названных государств, к которым вполне применим термин «враждебные государства». На мой взгляд, существующая дефиниция в виде «недружественные государства» в данном контексте представляется слишком мягкой.

Вызывает вопросы и позиция российских либеральных и явно прозападных экспертов, которые по-прежнему выступают за возобновление российско-американского переговорного процесса «любой ценой» и на основе выдвижения Соединенным Штатам и НАТО избыточных и необоснованных уступок со стороны России в сфере КНВ.

Было бы правильным, чтобы Россия выступила с предложением ко всем ядерным государствам договориться о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе, что реально позволило бы отвратить угрозу ракетно-ядерной войны без вступления в длительные переговоры. А, в случае отказа, например, США, Великобритании, Франции и Израиля присоединиться к этой возможной инициативе (что весьма вероятно), Москва могла бы тоже перейти на доктрину «нанесения первого ядерного удара».

Переход на эту стратегию, несомненно, будет способствовать защите Российской Федерации от реального ракетного-ядерного удара США и НАТО, не позволит пропустить его, а также уравняет ее с аналогичной военно-стратегической установкой с ядерными государствами Запада. Переход Российской Федерации на такую доктрину представляется даже более эффективным по степени своего воздействия на ядерные страны НАТО, чем отзыв нашей национальной ратификационной грамоты относительно ДВЗЯИ.

Сейчас нет смысла начинать переговоры с американской стороной и о сокращении стратегических наступательных вооружениях (СНВ) после февраля 2026 года, когда подойдет срок завершения действия Договора СНВ-3. В перспективном Договоре СНВ-4 Белый дом будет напирать на то, чтобы ограничить или сократить все семь перспективных российских видов вооружений, по которым наше государство имеет явное военно-технические преимущество. Имеются в виду шесть видов, о которых было объявлено в 2018 году в Послании президента В.В. Путина Федеральному Собранию, плюс  российская гиперзвуковая противокорабельная ракета «Циркон», принятая на вооружение в начале этого года.

Более того, обозначенные переговоры представляется нецелесообразным вести в условиях продолжающейся комбинированной агрессии Украины и НАТО против Российской Федерации, которую ведущие страны этого военного блока во главе США намерены продолжать, поставляя смертоносные виды вооружений, от применения которых гибнут российские военнослужащие и мирные граждане, а также делая значительные финансовые вливания в военную машину ультранационалистического киевского режима.

Думается, следует также отказаться от практики демонстрационных показов новейших российских систем вооружений американским и иным представителям НАТО с целью «вовлечения их в переговорный процесс по КНВ». Такие показы будут использоваться враждебной стороной в качестве предлога для начала переговорного процесса с целью ослабления российского оборонного потенциала комбинированного интегрированного сдерживания, в который входят не только ракетно-ядерные вооружения, но и гиперзвуковые планирующие блоки, а также некоторые другие ударные средства, создаваемые на новых физических принципах.

Автор: В.П. Козин. Источник: Журнал “Международная жизнь”

 

Перспективы КНВ при Джозефе Байдене

Доклад ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козина на ситуационном анализе-совещании 28 января 2021г.

Джозеф Байден, одержавший победу на ноябрьских выборах 2020 года, неоднократно говорил о необходимости поиска новых и сохранения ранее заключенных международных соглашений по контролю над вооружениями (КНВ). Интересно: каких «новых»? Нет ясности, что он имел в виду.

С одной стороны, будучи вице-президентом в период деятельности администрации Барака Обамы, он демонстрировал себя лишь умеренным сторонником ограничения ракетно-ядерного оружия и укрепления режима его нераспространения. Но с другой, после победы на президентских выборах 2020 года он заявил, что восстановит «контроль над вооружениями и нераспространение» с субстантивной оговоркой: только в качестве центральной опоры «глобального лидерства» Соединенных Штатов. Это очень серьезная оговорка.

Администрация Джозефа Байдена планирует рассмотреть программу модернизации ядерного арсенала страны на предмет его возможного сокращения и корректирования. Это утверждала 24 декабря прошлого года американская газета «Уолл стрит джорнэл» со ссылкой на некие свои источники. [1]

По ее словам, новая администрация планирует пересмотреть программу объемом в 1,2 трлн. долларов по модернизации ракетно-ядерного оружия с прицелом на сокращение расходов на ядерные вооружения и их роли в стратегии страны. Газета напомнила о готовности ставленника от Демократической партии урезать чрезмерные траты на ядерные арсеналы и критику им президента Дональда Трампа за решение разработать новую крылатую ракету морского базирования, запускаемую с подводных лодок.

По словам источников названного издания, новая администрация, скорее всего, пересмотрит решение Пентагона разработать новую межконтинентальную ракету наземного базирования, производство которой, согласно оценкам, обойдется в 100 млрд. долларов с учетом установленных на нее ядерных боезарядов. Но, как утверждалось, модернизация американского ядерного арсенала будет продолжаться.

«Уолл стрит джорнэл» не исключала внесение изменений в ядерную стратегию США таким образом, чтобы американское ядерное оружие рассматривалось только как средство сдерживания, а его применение допускалось лишь в ответ на аналогичный шаг других государств. Джозеф Байден пока не сделал заявления от том, насколько быстро он сможет начать реализовывать ядерную стратегию с ограниченными задачами, но добавил, что будет консультироваться с американским военным руководством и союзниками Соединенных Штатов. Ясно, что на эти и другие темы КНВ он будет высказываться уже после официального вступления в должность главы государства 20 января текущего года.

В материале газеты отмечалось, что представители переходной команды Джозеф Байдена не ответили на просьбу пояснить, какие шаги он планирует предпринять по сокращению указанных ракетно-ядерных программ. Не было сделано заявлений о готовности вывода ТЯО США из Европы, ограничить количество ракет-перехватчиков глобальной системы ПРО и зоны из развертывания, проявлять сдержанность в отношении развертывания ударных космических вооружений. Нет ясности относительно снижения количества оснований применения ядерного оружия США, которые были обозначены в ядерной стратегии Дональда Трампа (14 оснований) и возможности выработки нового договора о ликвидации РСМД.

Известно, что Джозеф Байден позитивно реагировал на возможность продления Договора СНВ-3.

Нет сомнений в том, что пришедшая к власти «демократическая» администрация будет продолжать курс на радикальную модернизацию американских ракетно-ядерных вооружений стратегического и тактического назначения; ориентировать нацию на глобальное наращивание средств противоракетной обороны, в том числе морского базирования, а также на совершенствование обычных вооружений, делая при этом упор на их выдвижение поближе к территориям Российской Федерации и КНР, а также ряда других государств.

Похоже, что во внешней и военной политике нового американского руководства, а также в сфере КНВ могут произойти некоторые корректировки, но не столь грандиозные, чтобы испытывать чувство повышенного оптимизма. К концу ушедшего года имелась конкретика лишь по ограниченным направлениям предполагаемой деятельности «демократической» администрации в обозначенной области. Но сохраняются и неопределенности по ключевым проблемам.

По этим причинам деятельность администрации Джозефа Байдена в области КНВ, скорее всего, будет носить двойственный характер. Она будет меняться как в зависимости от развития региональной и глобальной ситуации в стратегической сфере, так и от степени влияния на него ближайшего окружения нового главы государства и его советников.

Но маловероятно, что новая администрация в Вашингтоне во главе с президентом-ставленником от Демократической партии радикально повернет такую линию в русло повышенного прагматизма в области КНВ в целом. В этом процессе всегда были и до сих пор остаются и рифы, и отмели. Останутся они и в будущем.

Вывод простой: от американской стороны требуются четкие, проработанные предложения по контролю над вооружениями, которые содействовали бы укреплению стратегической стабильности в мире, а не преследовали бы только единоличные «уникальные» американские интересы в области их «стратегической безопасности», как там считают.

Продление ДСНВ-3 и его последствия

В соответствии с договоренностью, достигнутой между президентом России Владимиром Путиным и его американским визави Джозефом Байденом, 26 января в МИД России состоялся обмен дипломатическими нотами между Москвой и Вашингтоном, в которых подтверждается готовность России и США продлить их двусторонний Договор о мерах по дальнейшему сокращению и ограничению стратегических наступательных вооружений (ДСНВ-3) на максимально оговоренный в нем пятилетний срок, то есть до 5 февраля 2026 года.

Принципиально важным в этом вопросе является тот факт, что наконец-то американская сторона поняла реальную значимость продления этого документа большого двустороннего и международного значения, причем, без сомнительных предварительных условий и дополнений, а также без повторения разного рода завышенных требований, которые безуспешно пыталась адресовать Российской Федерации «республиканская» администрация Соединенных Штатов во главе с Дональдом Трампом в течение практически всех четырех лет ее пребывания у власти. Новое американское военно-политическое руководство во главе с Джозефом Байденом проявило довольно ответственный подход, чтобы отделить архиважные проблемы стратегической стабильности и контроля над вооружениями от политической конъюнктуры, а также от непрофессиональных пожеланий, преследовавших получение односторонних преимуществ исключительно для американской стороны.

Военно-политическое и геополитическое значение продлеваемого договора заключается в том, что он остается в неизменном виде, как и его первоначальный вариант, подписанный в апреле 2010 года в Праге и вступивший в силу после обмена ратифицированными грамотами сторон 5 февраля 2011 года. Все заявления и оговорки сторон, а также военно-политические и военно-технические элементы пакета ратификационных документов сторон двадцатилетней давности остаются в силе.

Продлеваемый документ сохранит максимальные лимиты на количество ядерных боезарядов стратегического назначения по 1550 единиц для каждой стороны и по 800 их оперативно развернутых и оперативно неразвернутых носителей; не запретит сторонам модернизировать свои национальные ракетно-ядерные системы и оставит в неизменном виде согласованный в договоре адекватный инспекционный механизм проверки его соблюдения. ДСНВ-3 в продленном виде не ограничит состав, структуру и возможность модернизации подобных вооружений Российской Федерации. Он также не запретит России создавать новые перспективные виды и типы вооружений, которые радикально укрепляют ее национальную оборону и безопасность.

Россия рассчитывает использовать ближайшие пять лет дальнейшего существования ДСНВ-3, чтобы развернуть с Соединенными Штатами углубленный и интенсивный диалог о будущем контроле над вооружениями по многим направлениям, а на каком-то этапе и переговоры по выработке ДСНВ-4.

В российском МИД подчеркивают, что будущие договоренности в рамках договора возможны только на сугубо паритетной и равноправной основе, что исключает любые односторонние уступки с российской стороны. Хотя на Смоленской-Сенной площади знают, что США проявляют беспокойство по поводу перспективных систем вооружений стратегической дальности, но там одновременно заявляют о наличии в данном вопросе только «поля для диалога», а не площадки для формулирования односторонних уступок в ущерб национальной безопасности России.

Одновременно Москва предлагает Вашингтону на основе расширения стратегической повестки дня выработать «новое уравнение безопасности», которое учитывало бы эволюцию военно-технических и военно-политических аспектов безопасности и включало бы в него все наступательные и оборонительные ядерные и неядерные вооружения.

Российская сторона одновременно заявила, что ее предложение взаимно заморозить на год ядерные потенциалы сторон в рамках продления ДСНВ-3, на чем настаивала администрация Дональда Трампа, утратило свою актуальность.

Очевидно, все названные обстоятельства потребуют более тщательной подготовки членов и экспертов российской делегации, которая когда-то в будущем получит мандат заниматься проблематикой контроля над ядерными вооружениями с американскими представителями. Следует дать ясно понять американской стороне, что она должна дать твердые гарантии Москве о полном выполнении продлеваемого ДСНВ-3.

Продление ДСНВ-3 является шагом в правильном направлении, заявил президент России Владимир Путин, обращаясь к участникам экономического форума в Давосе по видеосвязи в январе этого года.

При условии скрупулезного соблюдения этого договора Соединенными Штатами продлеваемый военно-политический акт может послужить активным инструментом для поддержания стратегической стабильности в мире и безопасности в глобальном измерении, а также стать основой для последующего сокращения СНВ сторон и дать стимул достижению других договоренностей в области контроля над вооружениями.

Государственная Дума и Совет Федерации Федерального Собрания России поддержали предложение о продлении названного договора на последующие пять лет, причем единогласно.

В ближайшее время обе стороны предполагают завершить все необходимые процедуры, обеспечивающие дальнейшее функционирование этого важного международно-правового документа в сфере контроля над вооружениями, который ограничивает стратегические ракетно-ядерные арсеналы сторон на паритетной основе. Договоренность о продлении «пражского» договора вступит в силу после того, как Российская Федерация и США обменяются официальными документами о завершении соответствующих внутригосударственных процедур.

Очевидно, все названные обстоятельства потребуют более тщательной подготовки членов и экспертов российской делегации, которая когда-то в будущем получит мандат заниматься проблематикой контроля над ядерными вооружениями с американскими представителями, например, по ДСНВ-4 и другим направлениям.

Все изложенные обстоятельства также потребуют адекватного учета российской стороной неотъемлемых и естественных задач при разработке общенациональных направлений стратегического планирования и укрепления оборонного потенциала России. В условиях существенных вызовов и угроз, исходящих от ведущих государств-членов НАТО во главе с Соединенными Штатами, путеводная цель развития передовых и перспективных российских вооружений и укрепление стратегической стабильности в глобальном измерении приобретает первостепенное значение.

Автор: В.П. Козин, ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО, член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН

 



[1] Gordon M. Biden to Review U.S. Nuclear-Weapons Programs, With Eye Toward Cuts//«The Wall Street Journal». December 24, 2020// https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-to-review-u-s-nuclear-weapons-programs-with-eye-toward-cuts-11608805800.

 

 

Перспективы реализации договора о запрещении ядерного оружия

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17 октября 2017 года в венском Центре по нераспространению и разоружению состоялся представительный международный семинар с  участием около 150 представителей дипломатического корпуса и экспертов, который был посвящен опыту подготовки и перспективам реализации международного Договора о запрещении ядерного оружия (ДЗЯО). Под его текстом, который был одобрен в июле текущего года 122 государствами (а это 63% от списочного состава ООН), в первые несколько дней после его открытия для подписания 20 сентября этого года свои подписи поставили 53 страны или 27% от членов этой организации, трое из которых уже ратифицировали его.

Выступившие перед началом дискуссии с содокладами послы Ирландии, Филиппин и Японии, хотя и обратили внимание на относительно быструю разработку и принятие этого документа, что в истории существования ядерного оружия произошло впервые и в относительно сжатые сроки, признали наличие ряда препятствий доктринально-политического и юридического характера, стоящих на пути вступления названного договорного акта в силу.

В критическом плане отмечалось, что в подготовительных мероприятиях по выработке текста, который ставит своей целью полную ликвидацию ядерного оружия в глобальном масштабе к неопределенному сроку, не приняли участия все ядерные державы (ядерная «пятерка») и «фактические ядерные страны», которые создали собственное ядерное оружие вслед за ними в обход Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия. Признавалось, что подготовительный процесс проходил в непростых военно-политических условиях в мире, когда продолжается застой в сфере контроля над ядерными вооружениями и когда КНДР произвела несколько новых испытаний ядерных взрывных устройств.

К числу реально существующих препятствий на пути претворения в жизнь идеи о полном «глобальном ядерном нуле» были названы: отсутствие консенсуса между сторонниками и противниками такого договора о целесообразности его принятия в нынешних условиях; застывший на месте переговорный процесс сокращения избыточных ядерных арсеналов, наличие у отдельных ядерных государств наступательных ядерных доктрин. В порядке иллюстрации подобного феномена в ходе дискуссии был использован объединяющий термин «ядерная тень», зависшая над планетой, которая, мол, заслоняет усилия, направленные на достижение противоположной цели – построение безъядерного мира.

Текст Договора, состоящий из преамбулы и 20 статей, не имеет четко прописанных методов и способов проверки его выполнения теми государствами, которые пожелают отказаться от собственного ядерного оружия в инициативном порядке. Нет ясности относительно того, кому поручить контролировать этот процесс: МАГАТЭ или какому-то иному специально создаваемому международному органу. Сам документ не исключает оба эти варианта. Высказывалось предположение, что на выработку соответствующего контрольного механизма за выполнением «безъядерного» договора может уйти ближайшее десятилетие.

Остаются противоречия в позициях сторонников и противников ДЗЯО по поводу того, не создает ли он проблемы для реализации Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия, который появился гораздо раньше и также содержит антиядерные положения.

Возникает вопрос: что должно быть реализовано в первую очередь: реальное ядерное разоружение, а затем присоединение к ДЗЯО государств, обладающих ядерным оружием, или наоборот.

Существует дилемма: следует ли продвигать далее процесс регионального сдерживания распространения ядерного оружия путем создания безъядерных зон или делать это необязательно, коль скоро появился столь радикальный договорный акт, предусматривающий превращение всей планеты в полную безъядерную зону. В этой связи отмечалось, что если ядерного оружия фактически нет на территории Африки, Латинской Америки и Центральной Азии, то почему нельзя распространить подобную практику на другие регионы мира?

В ходе обмена мнениями было обращено внимание, что статья 12 ДЗЯО, названная «Универсальность», призывает еще не подписавшие его государства, «подписать, ратифицировать, принять, утвердить Договор или присоединиться к нему, преследуя цель обеспечить всеобщее присоединение к Договору всех государств». Было отмечено, что если термины «подписание и ратификация» ДЗЯО являются вполне понятными по своим военно-политическим и международно-правовым последствиям, то термины «принять, утвердить Договор или присоединиться к нему» не влекут за собой каких-то предметных обязательств, поскольку термины «принятие, утверждение и присоединение» к нему могут не повлечь за собой его обязательное подписание, а без этого окажется невозможной и его последующая ратификация. В этой связи формулировка названной статьи может привести к размытию четко выраженных обязательств по Договору со стороны его потенциальных участников.

При изложении российской позиции было привлечено внимание участников дискуссии к тому, что три предложения о полной ликвидации ядерного оружия, выдвигавшиеся Советским Союзом за период существования ядерного оружия, а именно в 1946, 1954 и 1986 годах, не были поддержаны западными ядерными державами.

Тот факт, что за принятие текста ДЗЯО в июле 2017 года высказались только 63% государств, говорит о том, что в мировом сообществе нет консенсуса по этому поводу, так как еще свыше 70 стран вообще не выразили ему своей поддержки, в том числе все девять ядерных государств. Нельзя абстрагироваться и от того факта, что не все страны мира поддерживают «антиядерные резолюции» на сессиях Генеральной Ассамблеи ООН.  

ДЗЯО должен вступить в силу по истечении 90 дней после сдачи на хранение пятидесятой ратификационной грамоты или документа о принятии, утверждении или присоединении к нему.

Вряд ли какое-то государство в мире, обладающее сегодня ядерным оружием, сделает первый инициативный шаг на пути уничтожения своего ядерного арсенала в одностороннем порядке. Северная Корея, например, заявила, что откажется от ядерного оружия только после того , как это сделают Соединенные Штаты. Предстоит еще длительная по срокам и сложная по содержанию большая политическая, юридическая и организационная работа, направленная на создание реального безъядерного мира.

Выступая 19 октября этого года на заседании международного дискуссионного клуба «Валдай» в Сочи, Президент России Владимир Путин заявил следующее: «На вопрос, возможно ли ядерное разоружение, или нет, я скажу: да, это возможно. Хочет ли Россия всеобщего ядерного разоружения или нет? Ответ тоже утвердительный: да, хочет, и будет к этому стремиться». Это достойный ответ России, давно считающей, что применение ядерного оружия будет означать конец всей земной цивилизации.

Важным этапом при движении к этой цели могли бы стать договоренности между всеми ядерными государствами о переходе на оборонительные ядерные доктрины и принятие ими взаимного обязательства о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе. Следует напомнить, что последняя идея была выдвинута еще Советским Союзом в 1982 году.

Автор: В.П. Козин 

Перспективы сохранения ДРСМД и ДСНВ-3: США продолжают нарушать оба договорных акта

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ, член-корреспондент РАЕН, профессор РАВН  В.П. Козин выступил 7 декабря в ходе дискуссии на VIII Всероссийском Конгрессе политологов в Москве на тему: «Перспективы сохранения ДРСМД и ДСНВ-3». Он отметил, что США продолжают нарушать оба эти договорных акта, что подрывает  глобальную стабильность и международную безопасность. В частности, было обращено внимание, что Вашингон уже 95 раз нарушил ДРСМД, когда при отработке перехвата средствами ПРО различных видов ракет он использовал четыре типа ракет-мишеней средней и меньшей дальности, запрещенных названным договором. В то же время американские контрагенты не предъявили к России каких-либо доказательств "несоблюдения" ДРСМД российской стороной  за последние шесть лет.

В.П. Козин подержал возможность обсуждения условий для продления Договора СНВ-3 ещё на пять лет, то есть до 2026 года. Но именно «условий для продления», а не автоматическое продление самого договора, да ещё любой ценой. По его мнению, принятие такого решения будет зависеть не только от полного и скрупулезного выполнения Вашингтоном ДРСМД.

С учётом признаваемой Вашингтоном органической взаимосвязи между стратегическими наступательными ядерными вооружениями и стратегическими оборонительными системами, а также принимая во внимание некоторые  аспекты деятельности США и НАТО, оказывающих непосредственное воздействие на глобальную стабильность и международную безопасность, вряд ли будет правильным игнорировать в данном контексте и другие объективные факторы. Это прежде всего размещение средств передового базирования США и их союзников по трансатлантическому альянсу у рубежей Российской Федерации в виде американских баз ПРО и складов с тактическим ядерным оружием; появление новых авиационных средств его доставки, наращивание сил общего назначения с тяжёлыми видами вооружений, а также неуклонное движение Пентагона к размещению ударных вооружений в космическом пространстве. Немаловажно заметить, что всё это нанизывается на действующую американскую ядерную стратегию, предусматривающую нанесение первого ядерного удара в целом ряде случаев.

Эксперт ЦВПИ предложил Стэнфордскому университету (США) разработать неправительственный проект введения количественных ограничений на ударные средства ПРО - как по максимальным потолкам , так и по пространственным сферам их развертывания, а также  подготовить проект Декларации о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе между Россией и США, а в качестве промежуточного шага к этой цели - сформулировать принципы "безусловного оборонительного ядерного сдерживания".

Плутониевый приговор: Директор МАГАТЭ проговорился о причинах гибели Украины

Если международная инспекция обнаружит пропажу части расщепляющих материалов или свидетельства переработки топливных смесей в оружейные, у России не останется иного выхода, кроме ликвидации украинского государства и установления прямого контроля над всеми её ядерными объектами.

В западные СМИ по капле начинается просачиваться информация о причинах, побудивших руководство России начать военную спецоперацию против Украины и запустить процесс её деконструкции.

Журналист американского издания The Wall Street Journal Лоуренс Норман рассказал, что на Всемирном экономическом форуме в Давосе глава Международного агентства по атомной энергетике (МАГАТЭ) Рафаэль Мариано Гросси сообщил о 30 тоннах плутония и 40 тоннах обогащённого урана, которые, как оказалось, хранились на Запорожской АЭС.

Поразительные цифры от Гросси о запасах ядерного топлива в Запорожье на Украине, к которому, по его словам, МАГАТЭ (сейчас) пытается получить доступ. Гросси сказал, что в этом месте содержится 30 000 кг плутония и 40 000 кг обогащённого урана. Агентство хочет быть уверенным, что запасы не пропали, – написал Норман в своем Twitter (соцсеть заблокирована на территории России).

Прежде чем погрузиться в анализ этой информации, не лишним будет обратить внимание, из какого источника она пришла и в какой обстановке была озвучена. Ещё древние римляне любили спрашивать: Cui bono? – "Кому это выгодно?". А уж они знали толк в манипуляциях.

Характер Давосского форума известен: мероприятие глобалистов, проводимое с целью "сверить часы" по наиболее важным для них пунктам международных отношений. The Wall Street Journal – тоже издание не для реднеков: газета рассчитана на деловых людей западного мира, то есть главных бенефициаров существующего миропорядка.

Иными словами, заявление главы МАГАТЭ было сделано в компании "приличных людей", очень хорошо понимающих интересы и чаяния друг друга. Это не агитационная речовка на CNN, рассчитанная на массы западных обывателей с промытыми мозгами, а выражение реальной озабоченности.

Показательно и то, что украинский "Энергоатом" немедленно кинулся опровергать слова Нормана, назвав его твит фейком.

На Запорожской атомной электростанции ни уран, ни плутоний, которые можно было использовать в военных целях, не сохранялись и не хранятся, – говорится в заявлении, опубликованном в Telegram-канале компании.

А вот в Кремле не стали спорить с американским журналистом. Пресс-секретарь президента России Дмитрий Песков сообщил, что МАГАТЭ действительно пытается организовать инспекционную поездку на Запорожскую АЭС. По его словам, в настоящее время идёт согласование технических вопросов и маршрутов, по которым атомщики МАГАТЭ будут добираться до Запорожской АЭС.

То есть Москва в принципе не против, чтобы международная организация проверила состояние ураново-плутониевых запасов, которые ещё недавно находились в распоряжении украинского режима.

Украинцы занервничали

Обращает на себя внимание формулировка украинского "Энергоатома", заявившего, что на Запорожской АЭС нет расщепляющихся материалов, которые можно было бы использовать для изготовления ядерного оружия. Между тем глава МАГАТЭ ни слова не сказал о том, что хранимые в Запорожье уран и плутоний могли использоваться для военных программ. Он лишь назвал количество накопленных запасов.

То, что Мариано Гросси говорил не об оружейных запасах, понятно из самого порядка цифр, которые он озвучил гостям форума. Достаточно вспомнить, что России в наследство от СССР досталось около 50 тонн оружейного плутония. Примерно столько же имели на момент окончания холодной войны и США. "Соглашение об утилизации плутония" предполагало, что Москва и Вашингтон переработают по 34 тонны вещества.

С учётом этих реалий не вызывает сомнений, что Украина в принципе не могла тихой сапой накопить 30 тонн оружейного плутония. Оперировать такими объёмами – удел сверхдержав. Но вот работать с маленькими партиями расщепляющихся материалов украинские атомщики вполне могли. И именно поэтому Киев заранее отвергает обвинения, которые могут быть предъявлены ему по результатам инспекции.

Ядерные подозрения

19 февраля украинский президент Владимир Зеленский потребовал проведения консультаций между странами-подписантами Будапештского меморандума. В противном случае он угрожал, что Киев выйдет из договора. Суть же Будапештских соглашений состоит в том, что Украина отказывается от ядерного оружия, а Россия, Штаты и Великобритания гарантируют её независимость и территориальную целостность.

Президент России Владимир Путин дважды, 21 февраля и 16 марта, касался вопроса обретения Киевом ядерного оружия и средств его доставки. Глава государства отмечал, что Украина имела все необходимые ресурсы, чтобы успешно провести такую работу.

Уже в обозримом будущем при зарубежном техническом содействии нацистский режим в Киеве мог получить в свои руки оружие массового уничтожения, и целью для него, конечно, была бы Россия, – подчёркивал Владимир Путин.

6 марта Служба внешней разведки (СВР) России сделала небольшой ознакомительный "слив" информации. Информированный источник сообщил журналистам, что украинская сторона работала над созданием технологий, которые позволили бы ей в кратчайшие сроки создать полноценную ядерную бомбу. По словам информатора, задача была поставлена ещё в 1994 году, сразу после того как Киев отказался от своей части ядерного наследия СССР, а в практическую плоскость работа перешла в 2014-м.

Ключевую роль в проекте играл Национальный научный центр "Харьковский физико-технологический институт" (ННЦ ХФТИ), техническое оснащение которого позволяло проводить исследования ядерных материалов, в том числе отработанного реакторного топлива, которое содержит вкрапления изотопа плутоний-239 (пригодного для изготовлений ядерных зарядов). Помощь харьковским ядерщикам оказывали Институт проблем безопасности АЭС в Чернобыле, Государственный научно-технический центр по ядерной и радиационной безопасности в Киеве, Институт физики конденсированных систем во Львове и профильные научно-исследовательские структуры Национальной академии наук Украины – Институт ядерных исследований и Институт органической химии.

Также сообщалось, что параллельно с отработкой технологии изготовления полноценных ядерных зарядов велись работы по созданию так называемой грязной бомбы – боеприпаса, который за счёт обычной взрывчатки производит рассеивание радиоактивных материалов. В качестве сборочной площадки была выбрана зона Чернобыльской АЭС, повышенный радиационный фон которой позволял маскировать работы с нестабильными изотопами.

Логично предположить, что если мозги украинского ядерного проекта были распределены по профильным научным учреждениям, экспериментальные мощности находились в Харькове, а сборочная площадка готовилась в Чернобыле, то Запорожская АЭС играла роль огромного склада, где расщепляющиеся материалы ждали своего часа. В зависимости от успеха или неуспеха украинской ядерной программы уран и плутоний могли бы использоваться как в качестве расщепляющегося материала, так и в качестве радиоактивной начинки украинских "грязных" бомб.

Изотопный приговор

Если инспекция МАГАТЭ выявит, что часть хранимых запасов куда-то делась или что среди низкообогащённых топливных смесей присутствуют высокообогащённые сборки из изотопов, пригодных для создания оружия, то… международное агентство внезапно подтвердит позицию Москвы: Украина работала над созданием ядерного оружия.

Это предположение хорошо объясняет и нервозность Киева, и развернувшийся торг между сторонами по поводу "технических моментов". По всей видимости, Россия не против, чтобы МАГАТЭ провело проверку; но в интересах Москвы, чтобы агентство не только уточнило массу хранимых запасов, но и зарегистрировало их изотопный состав, а главное – не могло скрыть или фальсифцировать результаты проверки.

Комментируя Царьграду сложившуюся ситуацию, член-корреспондент Российской Академии естественных наук, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин отметил, что выводы пока делать рано.

Во-первых, надо доказать и убедиться в том, что там были высокообогащённый уран и оружейный плутоний, пригодные для создания ядерного оружия. Поэтому информация, на которую ссылался генеральный директор МАГАТЭ, нуждается в проверке, так как никакой инспекции со стороны МАГАТЭ там в последнее время организовано не было. Поэтому надо, конечно, удостовериться – так ли это, – заявил эксперт.

Если в запорожских хранилищах будут найдены уран и плутоний, пригодные для изготовления боеприпасов, это будет достаточным основанием, чтобы наложить на Киев санкции. Однако союзники Украины вряд ли позволят реализоваться этому сценарию.

Если это будет подтверждено – а достаточно нескольких десятков килограммов обогащённого урана или оружейного плутония, чтобы ввести против Киева определённые санкции, – но само МАГАТЭ не в состоянии этого сделать. Это вправе сделать Совбез ООН. Но, как известно, пять великих ядерных держав имеют право вето, в том числе США, Великобритания и Франция. Поэтому, скорее всего, американцы, англичане и французы просто заблокируют любую попытку ввести рестрикции в отношении Киева. Вот в чём проблема, – уточнил Козин.

Также эксперт отметил, что критически важным окажется состав группы, которую агентство пошлёт на проверку АЭС. Чтобы инспекция МАГАТЭ не могла замести под толстый ковёр неудобные для Киева факты, Козин считает необходимым сформировать состав инспекторской группы с участием тех стран, которые непосредственно граничат с украинской территорией, в частности, Белоруссии. Естественно, в состав инспекции должны входить и русские специалисты. По его мнению, международные инспекции должны быть направлены и на другие действующие украинские АЭС, контролируемые Киевом.

После обнаружения десятков американо-украинских лабораторий по созданию биологического оружия на Украине, ни Вашингтону, ни Киеву верить ни в чём нельзя. Особенно в той части, которая имеет отношение к созданию ядерного оружия, – убежден Козин.

Что с того?

При всем этом надо понимать, что ситуация совсем не однозначная. Инспекция МАГАТЭ может ничего не найти; более того, даже если будет установлена пропажа некоторого количества ядерных материалов, СМИ и руководство стран Запада, скорее всего, обвинят в этом… Россию. В очередной раз будет запущена история о том, что "ужасные русские готовят операцию под чужим флагом" и намерены применить "грязную" бомбу или маломощный ядерный заряд.

С другой стороны, заявления Запада на самом деле не так уж и важны. Эпоха, когда слова и демарши что-то значили, окончилась. 24 февраля текущего года в мировых отношениях начался новый период – время, когда значение имеют только действия. Запад окончательно дискредитировал себя не только в роли партнёра, но даже и в качестве разумного оппонента.

Мы знаем, что Россию и русских назначают виноватыми за любое злодеяние и любое негативное явление на планете, от резни в Буче до надвигающегося глобального продовольственного кризиса. А раз так – нет никаких резонов пытаться кому-то что-либо доказывать.

И если смотреть на ситуацию под таким углом, любые проблемы с сохранностью расщепляющихся материалов в Запорожье и любые следы манипуляций с топливными смесями или реакторными отходами будут означать ровно одно: Россия не может позволить Украине владеть ни одной атомной электростанцией и ни одним ядерным объектом.

С учётом того, что самые западные АЭС Украины находятся в Ровненской и Хмельницкой областях, эта установка означает, что русской армии придётся продвинуться существенно западнее Днепра, взяв под свой контроль практически всю территорию республики, которая не вынесла груза ответственности за свой суверенитет.

Источник: Царьград.  

 

Победа Владимира Путина: огромные позитивные военно-политические последствия для России

Внушительная победа Президента Российской Федерации Владимира Путина на состоявшихся 18 марта прямых президентских выборах и в абсолютных показателях (по количеству поданных за него голосов), и относительно голосов избирателей, которые получили остальные семь претендентов на этот пост (в процентном отношении) будет иметь весьма глубокие позитивные военно-политические последствия для России, по крайней мере, в ближайшие шесть лет. Вполне можно также утверждать: будет иметь такие же последствия для укрепления международной стабильности и  безопасности в мире.

Специально абстрагируясь от последствий этой победы для остальных направлений внутриполитической и социально-экономической жизни страны, а также для развития системы ее здравоохранения, образования, культуры, духовной жизни и так далее, но спрогнозировав грядущую ситуацию исключительно в военно-политической и военно-технической областях, а также в сфере национальной обороны и безопасности России, можно предположить, что одержанная Владимиром Путиным блестящая победа на состоявшихся выборах позволит нашей стране:

- повысить ее обороноспособность в разумных пределах и адекватно в качестве ответа на множественные внешние угрозы, которые значительно возросли в последние годы, в особенности, со стороны США и НАТО;

-  продолжить процесс создания самых передовых по техническому и иному оснащению национальных Вооруженных Сил;

- заложить солидную основу для выполнения актуализированной Государственной программы вооружения страны на период 2018-2027 годов, в частности, довести до полной готовности те шесть новых образцов ядерных и неядерных высокоэффективных видов вооружений, о которых Президент говорил в мартовском Послании  Федеральному Собранию в этом году;

- одновременно не дать втянуть себя в затратную гонку избыточных вооружений и масштабной военной деятельности;

- сохранить необходимый потенциал оборонительного ядерного и неядерного сдерживания для предотвращения ядерной войны любого масштаба -  будь то ограниченной или тотальной;

- не допустить развертывания ударно-боевых противоракетных средств в новых сферах, например, в космическом пространстве, а также его превращения в сферу размещения иных видов ударных вооружений;

- создать сильную национальную переговорную позицию на будущих официальных переговорах с США и НАТО по контролю над вооружениями, которые велись бы на основе принципа равенства и равной безопасности, с полным учетом интересов национальной безопасности России.

Важно также отметить, что по своим военно-политическим взглядам и индивидуальным чертам характера, например, по таким как воля и решимость действовать в чрезвычайных обстоятельствах, Президент Владимир Путин превосходит других претендентов на президентский пост, которые участвовали в состоявшихся выборах 18 марта. А также имеет солидный опыт работы на высоких и ответственных государственных постах.

Трудно себе представить ситуацию, что кто-то из семи претендентов мог бы быть облечен полным доверием повышать или понижать уровень боеготовности стратегических  ядерных сил  Российской Федерации, а также отдавать приказ о применении ядерного оружия в критических ситуациях, когда под угрозу могло бы быть поставлено само существование российского государства.

С большой долей скепсиса можно представить себе ситуацию, чтобы кто-то из остальных кандидатов на президентский пост, участвовавших в этих выборах, принял в 2014 году единственно правильное решение о воссоединении Крыма с его исторической, духовной, этнической, культурной и экономической Родиной – Россией. Два кандидата даже были готовы сдать Крым и его граждан чужой стране.

И последнее суждение. Многие российские избиратели, перед тем как опустить бюллетень в урну для голосования или вставить его в электронный аппарат обработки избирательных бюллетеней, получивший ставшую уже знакомой аббревиатуру «КОИБ», возможно и не задумывались обо всех военно-политических факторах, о которых идет здесь речь, а в основном, как представляется, пытались разобраться в том, кто мыслит реально, а кто нет, кто действительно может поднять уровень жизни всех граждан страны, а кто только раздает пустые обещания по этому поводу, кто говорит правду, а кто блефует.

Но, так или иначе, все граждане, отдавшие свой голос за Владимира Путина 18 марта, по существу обеспечили национальную безопасность России на самом высоком и на самом надежном уровне на многие годы вперед. Дело в том, что они избрали не только главу нашего государства, но и фактически Верховного Главнокомандующего Вооруженными Силами страны.

Это создает благоприятные условия для повышения социально-экономического благосостояния всех граждан России, ее дальнейшего экономического роста и научно-технического прогресса, а также для укрепления стабильности и стратегического баланса в мире, без чего сложно решать сугубо мирные созидательные задачи.

Встречаясь с кандидатами на должность Президента России 19 марта, Владимир Путин отметил, что основной акцент в будущей работе исполнительной власти будет сделан на решении внутренних проблем страны. Особо были выделены: обеспечение темпов экономического роста, придание российской экономике инновационного характера, решение конкретных вопросов, связанных с развитием здравоохранения, образования и науки, инфраструктуры и на этой базе обеспечение роста благосостояния граждан страны.

«Разумеется, - заявил вновь избранный глава российского государства, - мы должны будем уделять и уделим необходимое внимание дальнейшему укреплению обороноспособности страны». Он также сделал акцент на том, Россия не собирается разгонять какую-то гонку вооружений. А, наоборот, намерена выстраивать отношения со всеми государствами мира таким образом, чтобы они были «конструктивными».

Автор: Владимир Петрович Козинведущий эксперт ЦВПИ

 

Подвижки ради восстановления лидерства

Что рекомендуют эксперты США Байдену в области контроля над вооружениями?

В преддверии вступления Джозефа Байдена в должность 46-го президента США и после этой церемонии американские эксперты в сфере контроля над вооружениями (КНВ) активизировали распространение своих рекомендаций относительно того, на что новой администрации следует обратить особое внимание на этом важном направлении, оказывающем непосредственное воздействие как на уровень отношений между великими ядерными державами, так и на стратегическую стабильность в мире в целом.

Критика военных расходов и ряда программ

Анализ высказываний американских специалистов по КНВ показывает некоторое усиление алармистских настроений и беспокойства по поводу непрекращающейся гонки ракетно-ядерных вооружений. Эта гонка при президенте Дональде Трампе приобрела опасные черты на фоне взлома практически всего процесса КНВ, который по инициативе Белого дома зашёл в глухой тупик. В американском экспертном сообществе отмечается, что отрицательное действие обозначенных двух противоположных явлений выразилось в значительных военных расходах Соединённых Штатов на цели модернизации и активном продолжении создания новых видов ракетно-ядерных и противоракетных систем.

Гонка ракетно-ядерных вооружений при президенте Дональде Трампе приобрела опасные черты на фоне взлома практически всего процесса КНВ по инициативе Белого дома.

Вашингтон пока не отказался от грандиозных планов в ближайшие три десятилетия выделить на развитие соответствующих долгосрочных программ от 1,5 трлн до 2 трлн долларов.

Обращается внимание на большие расходы страны, выделенные ушедшей республиканской администрацией на модернизацию американского национального ядерного потенциала и в ближайшие годы. В этой связи упоминается двадцатипроцентное увеличение военных ассигнований США на эти цели в 2021 финансовом году, на которых настаивал Дональд Трамп. Эксперты поясняют, что такой рост является результатом его «опасных планов эскалации» в ракетно-ядерной сфере, а не ответом на какие-то реальные и адекватные оборонные потребности страны.

Стала подвергаться большей критике чем прежде высокая степень боеготовности стратегических ядерных сил Соединённых Штатов, которая при администрации президента-республиканца в группировке МБР достигала 99,9 процентов. Признаётся повышение риска развязывания ядерной войны в результате просчёта, ошибки, неверной интерпретации действий другой стороны, быстрой эскалации военного противостояния или каких-то умышленных целенаправленных шагов.

На этом фоне даются «советы» новому 46-му президенту страны рассмотреть вопрос о возможности принятия обязательства о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе и модифицировать ныне действующую в США концепцию «запуск по предупреждению», которая может привести мир к катастрофе с применением ядерного оружия из-за неверной интерпретации ситуации, которая будет воспринята в виде какой-то ракеты или группы ракет, летящих в сторону американского континента.

Новому 46-му президенту страны даются «советы» рассмотреть вопрос о возможности принятия обязательства о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе.

Подвергается остракизму убеждение Вашингтона, что он сможет вести ядерную войну в глобальном измерении и одержать в ней победу. В этой связи предлагается снизить роль ракетно-ядерных систем в военной политике Соединённых Штатов.

Пролонгация Договора СНВ-3

Осуждается как деструктивная и непродуманная линия прежней республиканской администрации, которая практически весь срок пребывания у власти была поглощена затягиванием решения вопроса о продлении срока действия Договора СНВ-3. Подавляющее число американских экспертов в области КНВ выступает за его продление на пять лет, но на определённых условиях.

Москва и Вашингтон уже обменялись дипломатическими нотами о продлении этого договора до февраля 2026 года. Похоже, что Вашингтон смог преодолеть свою прежнюю деструктивную позицию в этом процессе, который несколько лет всячески тормозила предыдущая американская администрация, пытаясь выторговать для себя односторонние преимущества.

Отвечая на мой вопрос в ходе одного из дистанционных вебинаров о возможности повторения в каком-то виде новым американским военно-политическим руководством предложения президента Барака Обамы о дальнейшем сокращении СНВ России и США до уровня 1.000-1.100 единиц по ядерным боезарядам для каждой стороны, одна из ведущих специалистов-практиков по контролю над ядерными вооружениями Роуз Готтемюллер, возглавлявшая американскую делегацию по выработке Договора СНВ-3 с Россией, назвала выдвинутую идею «очень хорошей», которую, мол, необходимо обсудить с российской стороной ещё раз. Пока же на экспертном уровне прозвучало предложение довести предельный потолок по ядерным боезарядам будущего Договора СНВ-4 до 1.000 единиц для каждой стороны.

Президент Барак Обама предлагал сократить СНВ России и США до уровня 1.000-1.100 единиц по ядерным боезарядам для каждой стороны.

Повторяется позиция администрации Дональда Трампа о целесообразности замораживания всех видов ядерных боезарядов США и России - как стратегического, так и тактического назначения. Очевидно, что новое американское военно-политическое руководство таким методом хотело бы сначала затормозить, а затем и сократить российские СНВ и ТЯО, в особенности наиболее их передовые системы.

Некоторые американские эксперты по КНВ призывают выработать и предложить российской стороне принять более жёсткие меры контроля за остающимися ядерными арсеналами после сокращений ядерных СНВ сторон в будущем. При этом подчёркивается, что новый верификационный механизм в обозначенной сфере должен адекватно соответствовать параметрам согласованных сокращений таких видов вооружений. Здесь же предлагается, чтобы в России проводился мониторинг по периметру заводов, производящих ядерные ракеты всех типов, а также разработаны процедуры контролирования американскими инспекторами российских централизованных баз хранения ядерного оружия. Но здесь же делается существенная оговорка, что американская сторона не может дать согласие на возможность посещения российскими инспекторами своих национальных хранилищ ядерного оружия или заводов по его производству. Такие односторонние меры могут выдвигать только американцы.

Признавая сложность урегулирования проблемы органической взаимосвязи между стратегическими наступательными ядерными вооружениями и стратегическими оборонительными вооружениями, то есть стратегическими системами ПРО, имеющихся на вооружении у Вашингтона и Москвы, некоторые американские эксперты в сфере КНВ выдвигают разные схемы. Одна группа исследователей по-прежнему повторяет заявление Дональда Трампа о том, что американская сторона не намерена вводить любые ограничения на развёртывание своей глобальной противоракетной инфраструктуры для перехвата баллистических, крылатых и гиперзвуковых ракет, а также вообще не собирается обсуждать такую проблематику с российской стороной. Другая группа пока застенчиво, но всё же тиражирует суждение о целесообразности введения пространственных и количественных ограничений на развёртывание ракет-перехватчиков американского глобального «противоракетного щита».

Также предлагается, чтобы администрация Джозефа Байдена продолжала настаивать на включении новых перспективных российских вооружений в будущий переговорный процесс по сокращению СНВ, в том числе высокоточных и гиперзвуковых, причём с обязательным подключением КНР к их ограничениям.

В частности, в американском экспертном сообществе высмеивается заявление работавшего в администрации Дональда Трампа заместителя государственного секретаря США Кристофера Форда, с которым тот в сенатском комитете по международным делам поведал о том, что Государственный департамент так и не определился с ответом Пекину на озвученное им предварительное условие его участия в каких-то будущих переговорах между Москвой и Вашингтоном по Договору СНВ-4. Это условие было простым: до их начала американская сторона либо сокращает свои ядерные вооружения до уровня китайских, либо КНР наращивает свои ядерные потенциалы до максимального предела нынешнего американского ядерного арсенала.

Пока слабо артикулируется идея пригласить к столу соответствующих переговоров «другие государства, обладающие ядерным оружием», например, Великобританию и Францию, которые имеют совместные планы с США о ведении ядерной войны как на двусторонней основе, так и в рамках НАТО.

«Закрытое» небо, иранская ядерная сделка и другие советы 46-му президенту

Распространяются призывы к восстановлению обязательств Вашингтона по Договору по открытому небу и к присоединению к Совместному всеобъемлющему плану действий с Ираном. Высказывается мнение, чтобы в случае восстановления участия Вашингтона в «иранской ядерной сделке» новое американское руководство настаивало на обязательном прекращении Тегераном процесса обогащения урана, на изъятии у него уже обогащённого урана и демонтаже им реакторов по производству оружейного плутония.

Отказ республиканской администрации взять обязательство не применять ядерное оружие в первом ударе заставило Москву и Пекин встать на путь усовершенствования своего ракетно-ядерного арсенала.

Признаётся, что отказ республиканской администрации взять обязательство не применять ядерное оружие в первом ударе заставило Москву и Пекин встать на путь усовершенствования своего ракетно-ядерного арсенала. Признавая в этом контексте, что Россия и КНР придерживаются оборонительных ядерных доктрин, Джозефа Байдена призывают проявлять чувство реализма в их оценке. Ставится вопрос и о внесении некоторых корректив в американскую ядерную стратегию, но с обязательным сохранением в ней незыблемой основы в виде безусловного наступательного ядерного сдерживания в самом широком понимании этой военно-стратегической установки, действующей с 1945 года.

Даются «советы» новому 46-му президенту страны рассмотреть вопрос о пересмотре ныне действующей в США концепции «запуск по предупреждению», которая может привести мир к катастрофе с применением ядерного оружия из-за неверной интерпретации ситуации, которую могут создать летящие в сторону американского континента некие «ракеты», имитацию которых могут создавать большие стаи перелётных птиц или блики солнечных лучей, отражённые от определённых видов облаков.

Появились робкие высказывания о важности разработки нового Договора о ликвидации РСМД вместо возобновления уже недействующего договорного акта 1987 года, из которого Соединённые Штаты вышли в инициативном порядке в августе 2019 года под ложными предлогами. В такой новой договорённости, как предлагается, должен быть зафиксирован либо полный запрет на создание и размещение новых ядерных ракет средней и меньшей дальности наземного базирования, либо введены предельные уровни на их развёртывание в различных регионах мира.

В последней альтернативе предлагается заморозить на определённом уровне российские и китайские ядерные ракеты средней дальности в Азии на том основании, что, дескать, российская сторона развернула на Дальнем Востоке ракету 9М729, «запрещённую Договором о ликвидации РСМД», что не соответствует действительности. Такая ракета никогда не была запрещена, поскольку она не подпадала под пространственные лимиты названного договорного акта, так как её заявленная максимальная дальность составляет всего 480 км, что на 20 км меньше минимальной дальности, с которой начинается классификация ракет меньшей дальности - от 500 км до максимального предела в 1.000 км.

Одновременно на экспертных дискуссионных площадках звучат голоса против возобновления ядерных испытаний на полигоне в штате Невада, что было отражено в ядерной стратегии предыдущего хозяина Белого дома, принятой в 2018 году.

Вспомнит ли Джозеф Байден свою максиму о КНВ?

В целом, новой «демократической» администрации предлагается трансформировать американскую военную политику и военное строительство в сторону большего рационализма и сбалансированности. Одновременно зазвучат голоса о необходимости восстановления некоего «лидерства США в области снижения риска применения ядерного оружия». Интересно, а где и когда такое лидерство проявилось?

С большой осторожностью предполагается, что при новой администрации Джозефа Байдена может появиться какой-то шанс выполнения «разворота» в сторону достижения неких договорённостей в сфере контроля над ядерными вооружениями, хотя признаётся, что его процесс может оказаться весьма затруднительным вследствие пока непреодолённых разногласий между Вашингтоном и Москвой в области КНВ в целом.

Предполагается, что при новой администрации Джозефа Байдена может появиться какой-то шанс выполнения «разворота» в сторону достижения неких договорённостей в сфере контроля над ядерными вооружениями.

Высказывается мнение, чтобы пришедшая к власти новая администрация рассмотрела повестку дня ограничения ракетно-ядерных вооружений на двухпартийной основе «сверху донизу» и добилась консенсуса по проблематике КНВ в Сенате и Палате представителей путём проведения совместных слушаний, а также в процессе дискуссий с участием национального экспертного сообщества.

Но есть и другие мнения. Консервативное и агрессивно настроенное крыло экспертного сообщества США по-прежнему требует ещё более высоких ассигнований на военные цели, делая при этом акцент на целесообразности противодействия «российским и китайским военным угрозам» в различных областях.

Нельзя сбрасывать со счетов то обстоятельство, что некоторые новые назначенцы в администрации Джозефа Байдена, которые будут принимать участие в разработке и утверждении позиции Вашингтона в области КНВ, например, государственный секретарь Энтони Блинкен и шеф Пентагона Ллойд Остин, уже сделали ряд недружественных заявлений в адрес России, например, обвинив её в «агрессивности». Это неудивительно. Новый руководитель внешнеполитического ведомства является сторонником проведения жёсткой линии в отношении нашей страны. Он занимал должность заместителя главы американской дипломатии и заместителя советника президента по вопросам национальной безопасности при президенте Бараке Обаме, а также консультировал Джозефа Байдена по вопросам внешней политики во время предвыборной кампании 2019-2020 годов, когда открыто распространял антироссийские взгляды.

Будучи сенатором, Джозеф Байден заявил в Ассоциации по контролю над вооружениями США, что достижение договорённостей в сфере КНВ это не роскошь и не признак слабости.

Будучи сенатором, Джозеф Байден заявил однажды в Ассоциации по контролю над вооружениями США, что достижение договорённостей в сфере КНВ это не роскошь и не признак слабости. По его словам, в её основе лежат «международная ответственность и национальная необходимость». Интересно, вспомнит ли он, став президентом, это своё высказывание, сделанное им более 50 лет тому назад?

Вспомнит он или нет эту максиму - время покажет. Очень скоро это станет ясным.

Но в любом случае благоразумная осторожность и тщательный анализ предложений, с которыми выступит новый американский президент на эту обширную тему, обязательно должны быть проявлены при потенциальных ответах российской стороны. В их основе должна лежать забота о национальной обороне и национальной безопасности Российской Федерации, её союзников и друзей, а также забота о поддержании гарантированной стратегической стабильности в мире.

 

Автор: В.П. Козин. Источник: Еженедельник “Звезда”

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Ведущему эксперту ЦВПИ Владимиру Козину – 70.

У Владимира Петровича богатейшая биография: факультет международных отношений МГИМО, аспирантура Дипломатической академии МИД СССР, Королевская Академия оборонных исследований в Лондоне, работа в МИД СССР и РФ, руководящая должность в РИСИ, авторство десятков монографий и более, чем 450 различных публикаций по проблематике контроля над вооружениями в виде статей и отдельных глав в коллективных монографиях.

Владимир Петрович - кандидат исторических наук, имеет ученое звание «старший научный сотрудник», квалификационный разряд «Государственный советник Российской Федерации 2 класса», дипломатический ранг «советник 1 класса» и звание «Почетный работник МИД Российской Федерации», а также звание «Ветеран труда».

За монографию «Тактическое ядерное оружие США: сокращения или модернизация?» В.П. Козин был удостоен премии имени генерал-полковника В.В. Коробушина (РВСН), присужденной Академией военных наук Российской Федерации (2015 г.), а также получил звание лауреата Российской Академии естественных наук (2016 г.).

Коллектив Центра поздравляет Владимира Петровича с юбилеем, желает ему крепкого здоровья, сил для дальнейшей плодотворной работы на ниве военно-политических исследований и просто хорошего настроения.

Дорогой Владимир Петрович,  счастья Вам и дальнейших совместных успехов!

 

С уважением и наилучшими пожеланиями,

                                                                             коллектив ЦВПИ МГИМО

Польский щит для НАТО

В конце 2014 – начале 2015 года Польша планирует определиться с поставщиком технологий для создания национальной системы противоракетной обороны (ПРО). Об этом заявил на днях заместитель министра обороны республики Чеслав Мрочек. Она станет значительным дополнением к ранее объявленной и согласованной между Варшавой и Вашингтоном американской системе ПРО, которая должна быть установлена в Редзиково на севере страны в 2018 году и иметь 24 ракеты-перехватчика «Стэндард-3» в модификации «II B».

Первые сообщения о намерении Польши развернуть национальную систему ПРО появились летом-осенью 2012 года. В августе 2012-го руководитель бюро национальной безопасности генерал Станислав Козей от имени президента страны представил новую программу развития польских вооружённых сил на 2013–2022 годы. В ней были отражены три приоритетных направления развития Войска Польского: совершенствование системы ПВО и «национальной» системы ПРО, а также повышение мобильности войск и развитие информационных систем. Из названных трёх направлений самым масштабным и грандиозным проектом должны стать модернизация ПВО и создание «национальной» системы перехвата баллистических ракет.

В середине апреля прошлого года президент Бронислав Коморовский подписал закон о технической модернизации и финансировании вооружённых сил, который гарантирует стабильное выделение средств на реализацию программы создания собственной системы противоракетной обороны. Символично, что церемония подписания этого документа состоялась на территории 184-го радиолокационного поста дальнего радиуса действия, расположенного близ города Сувалки, что на северо-востоке страны. С 2014 года эта воинская часть будет наблюдать за воздушным пространством в рамках существующей системы ПВО/ПРО НАТО.

Польское военно-политическое руководство называет несколько причин, которые побудили его пойти на развёртывание дополнительного «национального» компонента ПРО. Во-первых, указывается, что Польша практически не имеет собственных противоракетных средств и, мол, поэтому Варшава приняла решение об усилении противоракетного направления, учитывая наличие ракетных угроз извне. Как заявил генерал Станислав Козей, эта система, как и американская, будет ориентирована против ракетных сил России, поскольку, мол, ракетный шантаж, как он выразился, исходит именно от неё.

Во-вторых, отмечается, что установка американского противоракетного щита на территории Румынии и Польши не сможет в полном объёме обеспечить оборонных потребностей польского государства. В порядке обоснования своей позиции польское руководство приводит заявление шефа Пентагона, сделанное в марте прошлого года, о проведении реструктуризации американской глобальной противоракетной инфраструктуры, которая фактически никакой реструктуризации и не подверглась. Наоборот, первоначальный срок развёртывания глобальной инфраструктуры ПРО США был продлён на два года: с 2020 до 2022-го. Появились даже планы её распространения и после 2030 года.

Создаваемая польская «национальная» противоракетная система станет частью системы перехвата баллистических и крылатых ракет трансатлантического альянса. Она будет способна уничтожать ракеты средней и «промежуточной» дальности, то есть имеющие дальность полёта соответственно 1.000–5.500 км и 3.000–5.500 км.

Таким образом, военно-политическое руководство Польши полагает, что предложенный вариант «национальной» системы ПРО полностью обеспечит интересы обороноспособности страны и её союзников по НАТО. «Наш национальный противоракетный щит совместно с элементами американского щита, которые будут размещены на нашей территории к 2018 году, станут частью (противоракетной. – В.К.) системы НАТО», - подчеркнул министр иностранных дел Польши Радослав Сикорский. Он также добавил, что Варшава будет развивать силы сдерживания, для которых понадобится покупка ракет, самолётов, вертолётов, бронетранспортёров, подводных лодок и беспилотников. При этом трансатлантический альянс, указал он, останется основным гарантом безопасности страны.

По мнению польской стороны, «национальная» противоракетная инфраструктура должна состоять из трёх эшелонов, которые могут быть обеспечены ракетами-перехватчиками американского производства (ЗРК ПВО/ПРО «Пэтриот» и «Стэндард-3»), натовской разработки («Астер» или «САМП/Т»), а также израильского варианта (вероятно, «Эрроу-3»). В ходе ротационного пребывания на польской территории американского ЗРК «Пэтриот» польские военнослужащие уже изучили и освоили эту систему. Не исключается возможность закупки у американских производителей ракет-перехватчиков ПРО ТВД второго эшелона «ТХААД».

Соединённые Штаты приветствуют готовность Варшавы дополнить их противоракетный комплекс в Редзиково новыми дополнительными ударно-боевыми средствами. Напомним, что в сентябре 2011 года Вашингтон и Варшава объявили о вступлении в силу подписанного 20 августа 2008 года соглашения о развёртывании американской оперативной базы ПРО в районе Редзиково. Было также сообщено о введении в действие дополнительного протокола к нему от 3 июля 2010 года, который значительно расширил инфраструктуру противоракетной обороны на польской территории, ранее предлагавшуюся Соединёнными Штатами. Ведь в соответствии с этим протоколом прежде ограниченная база ракет-перехватчиков будет превращена в полноценный противоракетный комплекс с собственной РЛС, пунктами управления и тылового обеспечения.

Из статьи XII упомянутого документа следует, что помимо названных ракет-перехватчиков комплекс противоракетной обороны будет располагать РЛС ПРО и командно-управляющим пунктом, объектами административного назначения, ремонтно-технического и хозяйственно-бытового обслуживания, средствами водоснабжения, собственной энергетической установкой, складами хранения ГСМ и боеприпасов, службой обеспечения безопасности и охраны. Комплекс также будет использовать собственную взлётно-посадочную полосу. Соглашение предусматривает «первоначальное» размещение на комплексе ПРО до 500 американских военнослужащих и гражданских лиц, количество которых может быть увеличено. По своим параметрам данный комплекс станет самым крупным наземным противоракетным объектом США на европейском континенте.

В ходе недавнего визита в Варшаву вице-президент США Джо Байден подтвердил американские планы по размещению в Польше элементов европейской системы ПРО в 2018 году. «Если говорить о противоракетной обороне, то наши планы, объявленные несколько лет назад, актуальны. Мы намерены их реализовать. В Польше будут элементы ПРО», - отметил он. И добавил, что Польша и США договорились «предпринимать новые шаги, направленные на укрепление союза двух стран в сфере обороны». «Общая оборона - это общая ответственность. Мы поддерживаем модернизацию польских вооружённых сил», - заключил Байден.

Нельзя не заметить, что и в США, и в Североатлантическом альянсе в целом как-то незаметно сошли на нет разговоры об антииранском характере американской и натовской систем ПРО. С одной стороны, это объясняется тем, что Тегеран отказался от реализации военной ядерной программы и от создания ядерного оружия, лишив тем самым натовское руководство возможности использовать Иран в качестве аргумента для развёртывания элементов противоракетной обороны на европейском континенте. С другой – с каждым очередным решением США и НАТО по совершенствованию ПРО и наращиванию военных усилий становится всё более явной их антироссийская направленность, чтобы ссылаться на Иран. А посему, воспользовавшись кризисом на Украине, в Североатлантическом альянсе, похоже, решили больше ничего не скрывать. Вот и президент США Барак Обама заявил в Брюсселе, что действия России в отношении Украины подтверждают важность трансатлантических отношений и статьи 5 Вашингтонского договора, предусматривающей коллективную оборону стран НАТО. При этом Обама подчеркнул важность усилий натовского руководства по укреплению и модернизации военного потенциала, а также важность увеличения оборонных расходов всех членов НАТО. «Мы должны иметь ресурсы и провести необходимые приготовления, чтобы обеспечить уверенность каждого члена НАТО в действенности статьи 5», - сказал он.

В связи с событиями на Украине Соединённые Штаты и НАТО также постоянно ставят вопрос об отводе российских войск от западных и южных границ. И это при том, что данные войска находятся на российской территории и будут находиться там  до тех пор, пока это сочтёт необходимым военно-политическое руководство России в интересах укрепления безопасности страны. Тем более в условиях, когда наиболее милитаристские и ультранационалистические деятели в Киеве, мечтающие о президентском кресле, делают провокационные заявления в адрес Российской Федерации, угрожают её национальной безопасности. А вот многочисленные военные базы США находятся на чужой территории - в Болгарии, Румынии, Турции, Польше, Латвии, Литве и Эстонии.

Такие базы должны быть полностью закрыты, причём безо всякой увязки с отводом российских войск откуда бы то ни было. Равно как и должна быть полностью прекращена провокационная круглосуточная-круглогодичная операция ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», которая проводится уже десять лет в воздушном пространстве Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии близ рубежей России и Белоруссии. Параллельно должны быть свёрнуты все работы по строительству операционных противоракетных комплексов Пентагона в Румынии и Польше, ориентированных против России.

Если этого не произойдёт, то будет иметь место постепенное усиление американской противоракетной группировки, действующей в интересах глобальной инфраструктуры ПРО США и НАТО, а также наращивание ВВС и сил общего назначения США и НАТО у российских рубежей.

Источник: Красная Звезда, Автор: Владимир КОЗИН08.04.2014

Польша готовится к войне с Россией: возможно ли прямое столкновение РФ и НАТО?

 

94% поляков считают Россию серьезной угрозой и выражают готовность вступить в боевые действия против нее. В Польше, где размещено около 10 тысяч солдат ВС США, модернизируется местная армия, а также проводятся регулярные учения среди обычных граждан. Варшава спешно закупает тяжелое вооружений. Первая партия южнокорейской военной техники - 155-мм САУ уже доставлена в Польшу и дислоцируется на границах Калининградской области. Польша и Германия вскоре начнут работу по развертыванию немецких зенитно-ракетных комплексов ПВО Patriot на границе с Украиной.

Может ли Польша начать военные действия против России в ближайшее время и какими силами она располагает, рассказал гость программы "Акцент дня" - Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин.

 

Польша заменит Украину в театре военных действий: России придётся воевать по новой

 

Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин в эфире Украина.ру рассказал, какое количество ЗРК "Patriot" США могут поставить Украине, как полностью перерезать поставки западного вооружения, а также назвал вероятные сроки завершения СВО.

– Хватит ли у США ресурсов, чтобы оснастить киевский режим новым оружием?

– Удары по энергетической инфраструктуре Украины: можно ли оценить их эффективность на текущий момент?

– Можем ли мы сровнять с землей все железнодорожные станции на границе Днепропетровской и Донецкой областей?

– Где высаживается американская транспортная авиация: в Польше или на Украине?

– Решит ли контрбатарейная борьба проблему обстрелов Донбасса?– Роль Белоруссии в СВО;

– Когда может завершиться СВО?

Напомним, 24 февраля началась военная спецоперация России на Украине. Её цель — денацификация и демилитаризация. В начале октября президент России Владимир Путин подписал законы о принятии в состав РФ Донецкой и Луганской народных республик, а также Запорожской и Херсонской областей. Этому предшествовал референдум, проведённый в Донбассе, в Запорожской и Херсонской областях, по результатам которого более 80% жителей данных регионов выразили желание стать частью Российской Федерации. В начале ноября министр обороны России Сергей Шойгу вместе с командующим объединенной группировкой российских войск Сергеем Суровикиным приняли решение отвести войска с правого берега Днепра и организовать оборону в Херсонской области по левому берегу реки.

Источник: Украина.ру

 

Польша: Больше всех НАТО?

Выпуск программы "Специальный репортаж" на телеканале "Звезда" с участием ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козина.

 

 

На встрече с Дональдом Трампом польский президент Анджей Дуда вновь поднял вопрос о размещении на территории Польши американской военной базы. Причем, Польша сама готова вложить в дело 1.5-2 млрд долларов и явно заинтересована в этой базе куда больше, чем сами Штаты. Базу хотят построить в 250 км от границы с Россией, чтобы защитить Сувалкский коридор - так называемый «мостик» между основной территорией России и Калининградом. В случае, если Россия нападет и захватит этот коридор, то Прибалтика окажется наглухо отрезанной от НАТО, - считают в Польше. Кроме того, поляки готовы отдать США всю имеющуюся инфраструктуру - аэропорты, военные базы, госпитали, а также обещают построить поликлиники, школы, дома для американских военнослужащих и дороги – ж/д и авто. Любопытно, что документ называется Proposal, в переводе с английского - «предложение». Чем обернётся для Польши такое предложение руки и сердца? 

Эфир от 25 сентября 2018г.

Польша: тень Победы

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "Специальный репортаж" на телеканале "Звезда".

Как польские и американские политики вдохновили нацистскую Германию развязать Холокост? Не успел отгреметь праздничный салют в честь 75-летия Великой Победы, как на Западе вновь заговорили о своем понимании истории. Варшава заявила, что Советский Союз и Германия одинаково виновны в развязывании Второй Мировой войны. Кто надоумил Польшу поучить немцев их же истории? И без кого в действительности не могла начаться Вторая Мировая война? Разбирая итоги Второй Мировой, невозможно обойти трагедию Холокоста. Миллионы евреев были уничтожены только потому, что они евреи. И Польша здесь, как оказалось, совсем не безгрешна. Что такое «еврейский вопрос»? Как польские и американские политики вдохновили нацистскую Германию развязать Холокост? В Варшаве утвердили новую стратегию национальной безопасности. Главный враг – Москва. Почему польско-американские учения решили провести перед годовщиной начала Великой Отечественной войны?

Эфир от 18 мая 2020г.

Последствия атаки украинских диверсантов на Белгородскую область

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в эфире канала медиагруппы «Патриот».

Минобороны РФ «продолжает зачистку территории» Грайворонского округа Белгородской области после вторжения диверсионно-разведывательной группы (ДРГ) с Украины, заявил губернатор региона Вячеслав Гладков. По его словам, во время эвакуации умерла женщина 1941 года рождения, причины пока неизвестны. Также есть информация о двух раненых.

В результате нападения диверсантов на округ вчера, 22 мая, восемь человек получили ранения, также были повреждены жилые дома, здания детского сада и райадминистрации. Для уничтожения нападавших в области был введен режим контртеррористической операции. Насколько надежно защищены границы Российской Федерации? Как сказывается на населении отсутствие официальных комментариев о ситуации от минобороны, почему мы слышим только комментарии губернатора Гладкова? Справедлива ли критика в адрес военных корреспондентов, которых упрекают в паникерстве? Насколько эффективно сработали пропагандистские структуры ЦИПСО, а насколько – федеральные СМИ?

Поставкам вооружений Киеву извне должен быть положен конец

Значительная группа государств-членов НАТО (21 государство из 30 полного состава), а также некоторые внеблоковые страны продолжают поставлять значительный объем вооружений и военной техники преступному киевскому режиму, который, осуществив уже две варварские агрессии  против Донбасса в 2014-2015 годы, с 14 февраля 2022 года фактически начал против мирных граждан ДНР и ЛНР третью разрушительную войну, которая не прекращается по сей день.

Нижеперечисленные государства, которые спасают украинский ультранационалистический режим от полного разгрома, по сути являются не только его подстрекателями, но и прямыми пособниками в осуществлении его позорной авантюры.

Но мало сказать только это.

Вооружения и военная техника государств, которые упомянуты в прилагаемой справке, непосредственно используется против граждан России и мирных граждан Украины как средства уничтожения.

В этой связи является весьма юридически справедливым и с военной точки зрения логически обоснованным готовность российской стороны надежно перекрыть силовым путем все поставки таких вооружений и военной техники Украине, причем сразу – как только они пересекут ее сухопутные, морские и воздушные границы.

Направленные МИДом России названным государствам дипломатические ноты протеста против таких поставок говорят о серьезности намерений российской стороны поставить прочный заслон на пути подобных поставок вооружений и военной техники. Их уничтожение уже началось.

Автор: В.П. Козин – член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России

 

Приложение

 

ПОСТАВКИ

смертоносных видов вооружений недружественными государствами киевскому режиму с 26 февраля 2022 года

 

Страна

Дата

Поставки

  1.  

Австралия

19.03

1066 пластин для бронежилетов, 473 защитных шлема,
571 камуфляжный бронежилет

  1.  

20.03

67,6 млн $ - общий объем финансирования закупки вооружений

  1.  

8.03

20 бронемашин «Bushmaster»

  1.  

На сумму 67,6 млн $

  1.  

Бельгия

10.04

200 ПТРК, 2 тыс. пулеметов, 3 тыс. автоматов

  1.  

Великобритания

25.03

6 тыс. единиц оружия, включая противотанковые ракеты
в дополнение к ранее отправленным 4 тыс. ПТРК «Javelin»
и «NLAW»

  1.  

26.03

30 млн £ – для поддержки ВВС и для выплаты заработной платы ВСУ

  1.  

8.04

100 млн £ – высокотехнологичные противотанковые системы
и комплексы ПВО

  1.  

10.04

120 бронемашин («Mastiff», «Husky», «Spartan»), противокорабельные ракеты «Harpoon», ПЗРК «Starstreak»,
800 ПТУР, неназванные высокоточные боеприпасы на 130 млн $, 500 млн $ финансовой помощи от Всемирного банка, 394 млн £ безвозмездной финансовой помощи

  1.  

На сумму 1,5 млрд $

  1.  

Германия

25.03

1,5 тыс. ПЗРК «Стрела», 100 пулеметов MG3, 8 млн патронов для пистолетов, 350 тыс. продуктовых пайков, 50 медицинских транспортных средств

  1.  

30.03

300 млн € – 2650 противотанковых гранатометов и минометов, бронированные машины и автобусы, 18 разведывательных БпЛА, 3000 приборов ночного видения, тысячи бронежилетов

  1.  

10.04

Krauss-Maffei Wegmann: 100 самоходных гаубиц Panzerhaubitze 2000 (1,7 млрд €), бронетранспортеры GTK Boxer 8x8 (1,2 млрд €)

  1.  

11.04

Rheinmetall: 50 танков Leopard 1, 60 SPz Marder

  1.  

На сумму 323,6 млн $

  1.  

Дания

27.02

2,7 тыс единиц противотанкового оружия, 2 тыс. бронежилетов TYR, 700 санитарных пакетов IFAK

  1.  

ЕС

18.03

300 млн € экстренной макроэкономической помощи на закупку
и доставку вооружения

  1.  

23.03

1 млрд € в два транша по 500 млн €

  1.  

8.04

500 млн € третий транш

  1.  

На сумму 1,9 млрд $

  1.  

Испания

2.03

1370 гранатометов, 700 тыс. патронов, легкие пулеметы

  1.  

Италия

12.03

пулеметы, противотанковое оружие, боеприпасы, очки ночного видения

  1.  

Канада

3.03

4,5 тыс. противотанковых гранатометов M-72, около 7,5 тыс ручных гранат, 750 тыс. $ для закупки высокоточных спутниковых снимков

  1.  

Кипр

10.04

Ми-35П, танки Т-80У, ЗРК «Тор» и «Бук»

  1.  

Литва

27.02

стрелковое оружие, шлемы и бронежилеты

  1.  

Нидерланды

26.02

400 реактивных гранатометов, 500 ракет «Стингер», 1 тыс противотанковых средств

  1.  

27.02

50 противотанковых гранатометов «Panzerfaust 3» + 400 гранат
к ним, 200 ПЗРК «Stinger», 100 снайперских винтовок + 30 тыс боеприпасов к ним, 2 водолазных судна

  1.  

Норвегия

30.03

2 тыс. противотанковых гранатометов M-72, около 2 тыс. единиц противотанкового оружия

  1.  

12.04

вероятны поставки противокорабельных ударных ракет NSM
и зенитно-ракетных комплексов «NASAMS»

  1.  

Польша

27.02

100 ед. 60-мм минометов и 1,5 тыс. штук боеприпасов к ним,
8 комплектов БпЛА, 152-мм кумулятивные боеприпасы
и боеприпасы к автоматическим орудиям, шлемы

  1.  

12.04

100 танков Т-72М/М1, БМП BWP-1

  1.  

Словакия

8.04

ЗРК С-300

  1.  

10.04

16 артиллерийских установок DANA «Zuzana»

  1.  

10.04

истребители МиГ-29

  1.  

США

26.02

350 млн $ – противотанковые и зенитные системы (200 ПЗРК «Stinger»), стрелковое оружие и боеприпасы различного калибра, бронежилеты и сопутствующее оборудование

  1.  

13.03

200 млн $ – противотанковые и зенитные системы, стрелковое оружие

  1.  

16.03

800 млн $ дополнительной военной помощи

  1.  

24.02

– 7.04

На выделенные средства поставлено: более 1400 ПЗРК «Stinger», более 5 тыс. ПТРК «Javelin», более 7 тыс. ПТУР, более 100 БпЛА «Switchblade», более 7 тыс. единиц стрелкового оружия, более 50 млн патронов, 45 тыс. бронежилетов и шлемов, 4 комплекса контрбатарейной борьбы, «HMMWV», приборы ночного видения,

  1.  

13.04

800 млн $ – танки Т-72, 11 вертолетов Ми-17, 200 БТР M113,
300 БпЛА «Switchblade», 18 155-мм гаубиц и 40 тыс. снарядов
к ним, 500 ракет к ПТРК «Javelin», тысячи единиц прочих противотанковых систем, 10 РЛС контрбатарейной борьбы,
2 РЛС воздушного наблюдения, 100 машин повышенной проходимости, беспилотные суда для зашиты побережья, оборудование для защиты от ядерных, химических
и биологических угроз, 30 тыс. бронежилетов и шлемов, более
2 тыс. единиц оптических устройств и лазерных дальномеров, взрывчатка C-4, мины M18A1 «Claimore»

  1.  

На сумму 2,1 млрд $ только при президентстве Байдена

  1.  

Чехия

25.02

4 тыс. артиллерийских снарядов 152-мм (free)

  1.  

27.02

На сумму 8,6 млн $ – стрелковое оружие и боеприпасы к нему.

  1.  

5.04

40 танков Т-72 и 50 БМП-1

  1.  

14.04

20 реактивных систем залпового огня RM-70 «Vampire»

  1.  

Швеция

27.02

43 млн $ – 135 тыс. полевых пайков, 5 тыс. касок, 5 тыс. бронежилетов, 5-6 тыс. одноразовых противотанковых гранатометов АТ-4

  1.  

28.02

52,63 млн $ – в Фонд ЦБ Украины для поддержки ВСУ

  1.  

23.03

21,7 млн $ – 5000 единиц противотанкового оружия
и оборудование для разминирования

  1.  

На сумму 117,3 млн $

На сумму как минимум 6 млрд $

Танки – от 140, артиллерийские орудия – от 34, бронемашины – от 240,
ПТРК – 28200, ПЗРК – 3800, стрелковое оружие – от 15000, БпЛА – 126, гранатометы
и минометы – от 16070, комплексы ПВО, боеприпасы и артиллерийские снаряды, оборудование для разминирования, средства индивидуальной бронезащиты, БМП, реактивные системы залпового огня, средства контрбатарейной борьбы

 

 

 

 

Похороны здравого смысла

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "Известия. Главное" на Пятом канале.

Почему НАТО устраивает провокации и как вынуждена отвечать Россия? И зачем альянс репетирует ядерный удар?

В.П. Козин: «(В ответ на угрозы НАТО применить ядерное оружие против России) У нас есть не только ядерное оружие стратегического и тактического назначения. У нас есть перспективные виды вооружений. Их уже семь. Мы свою страну, своих союзников и друзей в обиду никогда не дадим».

Эфир от 23 октября 2021г.

Почему Байден пошёл на продление Договора СНВ-3?

Уход от урегулирования вопросов контроля над ядерными вооружениями и нераспространения ядерного оружия на принципах равенства и равной, неделимой безопасности для всех может привести к появлению трёх новых форм гонки вооружений: противоракетной, космической и гиперзвуковой, которые дополнят продолжающуюся гонку ракетно-ядерных вооружений

3 февраля этого года в российском МИД состоялся обмен дипломатическими нотами с посольством США в Российской Федерации о завершении внутренних национальных процедур, необходимых для вступления в силу их Соглашения о продлении срока действия Договора СНВ-3 на последующие пять лет, то есть до 5 февраля 2026 года. Он был продлён без каких бы то ни было изменений и дополнений. После многолетних препирательств Вашингтон наконец-то смог преодолеть свою прежнюю деструктивную позицию в этом вопросе, который всячески тормозила предыдущая американская администрация во главе в Дональдом Трампом, пытаясь выторговать для себя односторонние преимущества только от самого факта пролонгации.

Простое объяснение: Байден проявил партийно-политическую преемственность

Так почему же Соединённые Штаты только после вступления Джозефа Байдена в должность 20 января буквально за две недели до прекращения существования этого договорного акта, то есть 5 февраля, пошли на его пятилетнее продление?

Представляется, что для реализации такого шага у нынешней американской администрации во главе с Джозефом Байденом было несколько причин.

Во-первых, самый простой ответ на этот вопрос может состоять в том, что новый хозяин Белого дома плотно связан с позицией руководства Демократической партии, которая выступала за его пролонгацию в период президентства Барака Обамы - ставленника этой партии также как и ставший 46-м президентом Джозеф Байден. Иными словами, новый американский президент проявил партийно-политическую преемственность в данном вопросе, полагая, что продление на последующие пять лет названного договорного акта, подписанного в Праге в апреле 2010 года, принесёт больше дивидендов Соединённым Штатам, чем прекращение его действия с шестого февраля текущего года.

3 февраля этого года в российском МИД состоялся обмен дипломатическими нотами с посольством

США в Российской Федерации о продлении срока действия Договора СНВ-3.

 

Во-вторых, имеется целый ряд иных причин, о которых нынешнее американское военно-политическое руководство в своих публичных заявлениях предпочитает умалчивать или настроена излагать свою точку зрения в обтекаемых формулировках.

«Скрытые» мотивы пролонгации Договора американцами

Среди таких «скрытых» мотивов пролонгации Договора СНВ-3 американской стороной вскоре после вступления Джозефа Байдена в должность главы государства можно выделить её стремление:

а) любыми средствами ограничить создание новых высокоточных перспективных видов вооружений России (программа минимум) или добиться полного прекращения планов по их созданию (программа максимум), в частности, гиперзвуковых планирующих боевых блоков типа «Авангард» и нового поколения межконтинентальных баллистических ракет наземного и морского базирования;

б) использовать фактор продления Пражского договора на последующее пятилетие для разработки с российской стороной нового Договора СНВ-4 на более выгодных военно-технических и военно-политических условиях, чем Договор СНВ-3;

в) считая, что пролонгация последнего на гораздо меньший срок, например, на один-два года, не позволила бы соответствующим делегациям сторон в полном объёме и качественно разработать проект Договора СНВ-4;

г) вовлечь в российско-американский переговорный процесс по разработке текста Договора СНВ-4 Китайскую Народную Республику, но без подключения к нему ядерных союзников США в рамках НАТО, то есть Великобритании и Франции, которые располагают стратегическими ядерными наступательными вооружениями и имеют взаимные союзнические обязательства по их совместному производству (США совместно с Великобританией) и даже их применению (США совместно с Великобританией и Францией).

Китай обозначен как «противник первого уровня» для США в докладе The National Defense Strategy.

 

На решение Джозефа Байдена продлить срок действия Пражского договора до 2026 года повлияло то, что ещё будучи кандидатом в президенты в период предвыборной кампании он представлял себе все отрицательные последствия для самих Соединённых Штатов в том случае, если бы в феврале текущего года не удалось продлить СНВ-3, и он просто прекратил бы своё существование на основании предельного срока действия, оговоренного в его тексте.

Действительно, в этом случае не осталось бы ни одного международно-правового инструмента в сфере сдерживания ракетно-ядерных вооружений не только между Россией и США, но вообще в списке ограничительных договорных актов в области контроля над ядерными вооружениями и нераспространения ядерного оружия.

Новое высшее военно-политическое руководство, пришедшее к власти в ходе ноябрьских выборов 2020 года, ясно себе представляло, что в случае отказа от продления Договора СНВ-3 у него практически не останется никакой договорной основы, чтобы попытаться отрицательно влиять на продолжение российских военных программ по модернизации СНВ России и созданию российским оборонно-промышленным комплексом перспективных и уникальных видов вооружений. 

Вполне очевидно, что на окончательную готовность продлить Договор СНВ-3 на последующие пять лет одновременно повлияло сделанное российским руководством в бытность президентства Дональда Трампа публичное заявление о том, что Москва будет готова выполнять его положения на взаимной основе до 2026 года «без предварительных условий», которые прежде предметно и обоснованно озвучивались с её стороны.

Принципиальная позиция Москвы

Например, до обозначенного заявления о готовности «безусловности» продления Пражского договора речь в российской позиции шла о целесообразности реальной увязки возможности решения проблемы его пролонгации с выводом американского тактического ядерного оружия с территории пяти иностранных государств-членов НАТО - Бельгии, Италии, Нидерландов, Турции и ФРГ.

Российская позиция - увязка возможности пролонгации Пражского договора с выводом американского тактического

ядерного оружия с территории пяти иностранных государств-членов НАТО: Бельгии, Италии, Нидерландов, Турции и ФРГ.

 

Москва делала упор и на целесообразности решения проблемы введения ограничений на глобальное размещение противоракетных систем и устранения их дестабилизирующей функциональной универсальности, то есть возможности одновременной загрузки в их пусковые установки не только оборонительных средств - ракет-перехватчиков, но и наступательных ударных систем вооружений в виде крылатых ракет наземного базирования, а в перспективе и высокоточных гиперзвуковых ракет такого же пространственного способа размещения.

Озабоченность российской стороны относительно сохраняющегося тактического ядерного оружия США в Европе и Азии была вызвана и до сих пор остаётся таковой в связи с тем, что подобные ядерные средства относятся к американским средствам передового базирования относительно территории Российской Федерации, её союзников и друзей, и что американские ядерные боезаряды ТЯО и авиационные средства их доставки постоянно совершенствуются.  

Нельзя не считаться с тем фактом, что в случае установки американских ядерных авиабомб тактического назначения на тяжёлые стратегические бомбардировщики Соединённых Штатов они принимают характер СНВ, поскольку в этом случае смогут доставляться на расстояние, превышающее межконтинентальную дальность, то есть перебрасываться на глубину от 5.500 км и далее.

Ядерное оружие в Европе.

 

В российском уравнении глобальной и околоземной стратегической стабильности речь всегда шла и до сих пор идёт о важности достижения предварительной договорённости о недопущении размещения ударного оружия в космическом пространстве в виде противоспутниковых систем и противоракетных средств космического базирования.

Интересы всего человечества или «национальные интересы»?

Тем не менее все обозначенные выше проблемы необходимо без проволочек решать в самом конструктивном ключе, поскольку их сохранение в «нетронутом варианте» будет по-прежнему негативно сказываться на уровне стратегической стабильности в глобальном измерении в целом, а также на военно-политических отношениях между ядерными державами в частности.

Уход от урегулирования таких проблем на принципах равенства и равной, неделимой безопасности для всех может привести к появлению трёх новых форм гонки вооружений: противоракетной, космической и гиперзвуковой, которые дополнят продолжающуюся гонку ракетно-ядерных вооружений. Но разве это отвечает интересам всего человечества? Никоим образом.

Будучи сенатором, Джозеф Байден заявил несколько десятилетий тому назад в американской Ассоциации по контролю над вооружениями, что достижение договорённостей в сфере контроля над вооружениями является не роскошью и не признаком слабости. По его словам, в её основе должны лежать «международная ответственность и национальная необходимость». Интересно, став президентом, вспомнит ли он своё высказывание, сделанное около 40 лет тому назад?

В октябре 2017 года Бюджетное управление Конгресса опубликовало подробный отчёт, в котором подсчитало, что планы расходов на ядерное оружие, унаследованные президентом Дональдом Трампом от Барака Обамы, в период с 2017 по 2046 финансовые годы обойдутся налогоплательщикам в 1,2 трлн долларов без поправки на инфляцию. Если же учесть инфляционные тенденции, то согласно прогнозу Ассоциации по контролю над вооружениями, тридцатилетние расходы Соединённых Штатов к 2046 году приблизятся к 1,7 трлн долларов. Появлялся показатель и в два триллиона долларов.

Пока в такие калькуляции нынешняя администрация не внесла никаких корректив.

Предостережение оптимистам: Вашингтон намерен добиваться односторонних для себя преимуществ

Нынешнее военно-политическое руководство Соединённых Штатов параллельно продолжает процесс качественного обновления своих существующих арсеналов СНВ, создавая все три компонента принципиально новой стратегической ядерной триады: баллистических ядерных ракет наземного и морского базирования, а также тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков. Обозначенная модернизация существующих СНВ США касается широкой модернизации ядерных боезарядов и средств их доставки, а также всей системы управления ими.

Реализуется программа производства корректируемой высокоточной тактической ядерной авиабомбы нового типа - В-61-12, не прекращается производство авиационных средств её доставки.

Новая высокоточная корректируемая авиабомба В-61-12.

 

До сих в силе остаётся и трамповская ядерная стратегия 2018 года, предусматривающая 14 оснований применения ядерного оружия стратегического и тактического назначения, в том числе с целью нанесения первого упреждающего и превентивного ядерного удара.

Вашингтон также намерен добиваться селективного, то есть выборочного метода ограничения и сокращения отдельных видов вооружений, как с Россией, так и с КНР, причём, с прицелом на достижение в каком-то будущем переговорном процессе односторонних для себя преимуществ.

Публично признав, что пролонгация Пражского договора на пятилетний срок является не концом процесса контроля над вооружениями, а лишь его началом, нынешняя «демократическая» администрация США, к сожалению, до сих пор не изложила своего широкого официального взгляда на то, каким образом она будет заниматься урегулированием 13 двусторонних и многосторонних проблем, которые остаются нерешёнными в названной сфере уже многие годы по вине Вашингтона.

До сих в силе остаётся и трамповская ядерная стратегия 2018 года, предусматривающая

14 оснований применения ядерного оружия стратегического и тактического назначения.

 

13 двусторонних и многосторонних проблем Вашингтона

1) проблема нарушения Вашингтоном Договора СНВ-3 (кстати говоря, при его продлении американская сторона не подтвердила готовность полностью соблюдать все его положения);

2) его отказ поддержать российское предложение о введении моратория на размещение ядерных ракет средней и меньшей дальности в регионах, где они отсутствуют;

3) отказ вывезти из Европы тактическое ядерное оружие;

4) отказ ратифицировать Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний;

5) отказ не направлять на боевое патрулирование в воздушное пространство Европы и Азии значительное количество тяжелых стратегических бомбардировщиков с отработкой нанесения ракетно-бомбовых ударов. Нынешняя американская администрация; 

6) не намерена решать вопрос о прекращении развертывания комбинированных средств ПРО близ территории России. Негативной остается позиция США и в отношении;

7) Договора по открытому небу;

8) Договора по торговле оружием, из которых они вышли в одностороннем порядке;

9) иранской ядерной сделки;

 10) Вашингтон противится реализации предложений Москвы о распространении положений двустороннего Соглашения о предотвращении инцидентов в открытом море в и воздушном пространстве над ним на подводные лодки сторон, находящиеся в подводном положении, с целью недопущения их столкновений;

11) Вашингтон не проявляет готовность  обсуждать в конструктивном ключе готовые проекты Договора о безопасности в Европе;

12) Вашингтон не проявляет готовность  обсуждать российско-китайский Договор о предотвращении размещения оружия в космическом пространстве, применения силы или угрозы силой в отношении космических объектов, который предусматривает запрет на развертывание в космосе оружия любого вида и на какие-либо силовые действия в отношении космических объектов (заметим: проект договора внесен еще в 2008 году);

13) уже долгие годы американская сторона не демонстрирует желания договариваться на многосторонней основе о неразмещении первыми оружия в космосе.

Предостережением для оптимистов, говорящих о возможности достижения радикального прорыва в области контроля над вооружениями между Россией и США, может являться и готовность Джозефа Байдена обеспечить лидирующие позиции его страны в ракетно-ядерных и космических вооружениях.

На самом высшем военно-политическом уровне там раздаются голоса «сдержать Россию» и «жёстко противостоять ей». Обычно под такой формулировкой в Вашингтоне понимают не только «сдерживание» нашей страны на международной арене, в торгово-экономических и топливно-энергетических областях, но и в сфере естественного развития её военного потенциала.

Все эти обстоятельства никоим образом нельзя сбрасывать со счетов или ослабевать их военно-техническую и военно-политическую составляющую в интересах укрепления обороноспособности России.

Автор: В.П. Козин. Источник: Еженедельник "Звезда"

Почему Вашингтон не устраивает наш «Рубеж»

США продолжают деятельность, противоречащую Договору по РСМД
 
Взяв курс на военное доминирование и достижение технологического превосходства над Россией, Вашингтон явно намерен устранить существующие препятствия на этом пути. И с этой целью активизирует деятельность, направленную на эрозию режима контроля над вооружениями. Такой вывод, например, напрашивается из отданного на прошлой неделе президентом США Дональдом Трампом поручения представителям своей администрации установить, не нарушает ли российская межконтинентальная баллистическая ракета РС-26 «Рубеж» положения Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (Договора РСМД) и Договора по сокращению стратегических наступательных вооружений (Договора СНВ-3).
 
Как отмечается в сообщении пресс-службы Белого дома, такой доклад поручено подготовить государственному секретарю США Рексу Тиллерсону. При этом он должен координировать свою работу с министром обороны, председателем объединённого комитета начальников штабов вооружённых сил и директором национальной разведки США. Поручение дано на основании статьи 1245 закона о военных расходах на 2018 финансовый год, подписанного Дональдом Трампом в декабре прошлого года.
Согласно этой статьи в течение 90 дней с момента вступления закона в силу президент должен предоставить конгрессу доклад о том, не подпадает ли российская МБР РС-26 под ограничения, закреплённые в договорах РСМД и СНВ-3. Если глава государства сообщит конгрессу, что эта ракета является нарушением договорённостей, а Москва при этом будет придерживаться иного мнения, то при выработке национальных стратегий и решений в военной области американское правительство будет рассматривать данную российскую ракетную систему как нарушение Договора по РСМД.
Названный закон также обязывает шефа Пентагона Джеймса Мэттиса предусмотреть реализацию программы по созданию мобильно-грунтовой крылатой ракеты наземного базирования (КРНБ) средней дальности с ядерным снаряжением, на разработку которой конгресс выделил денежные средства в прошлом году.
Такое распоряжение президента США не может не вызывать сомнения в истинных намерениях Вашингтона, поскольку американская сторона хорошо осведомлена о том, что МБР РС-26 «Рубеж» никак не подпадает под терминологические определения Договора по РСМД, который предусмотрел уничтожение ракет средней и меньшей дальности от 500 до 5500 км. «Рубеж» же имеет межконтинентальную дальность, то есть свыше 5500 км и, соответственно, не подлежит каким-то сокращениям или ограничениям в соответствии с Договором по РСМД. В Вашингтоне также прекрасно знают, что создание МБР «Рубеж» не противоречит Договору СНВ-3.
В этой связи возникает вопрос, с какой целью американская сторона подняла тему о МБР «Рубеж». Тем более что делает это она уже не в первый раз. Ответ очевиден: Вашингтон хочет уничтожить перспективную российскую МБР, имеющую высокие характеристики по преодолению системы ПРО. С этой целью Вашингтон вбрасывал и некое «компромиссное предложение»: США, мол, будут готовы отказаться от развёртывания в Европе пока ещё не созданной новой ядерной КРНБ, а Россия в обмен на это пусть ликвидирует реально существующую МБР РС-26 «Рубеж». Иными словами, предложили ликвидировать дырку от бублика в обмен на испечённый бублик. Но этот фокус не пройдёт. Нет никаких оснований и о проведении на российской территории каких-то дополнительных инспекций по этому поводу, кроме тех, которые предусмотрены Договором СНВ-3, на что также намекают американские контрагенты.
В то же время нельзя не видеть, что США нарушили Договор по РСМД уже 93 раза. Именно столько Пентагон провёл с 2001 года тестирований ракет-перехватчиков системы ПРО, используя в качестве баллистических ракет-мишеней ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, запрещённые этим соглашением. То есть Вашингтон, формально оставаясь в рамках Договора РСМД, не заявляя о выходе из него, уже фактически многократно вышел из его запретительных положений.
 
Формально оставаясь в рамках Договора РСМД, не заявляя о выходе из него,  Вашингтон уже фактически многократно вышел из его запретительных положений
 
Следует также отметить, что, выступая на днях на конференции по ядерному сдерживанию в Вашингтоне, заместитель помощника министра обороны США по вопросам ядерной и противоракетной политики Роберт Суфер вновь попытался увязать отказ США от развёртывания ядерных КРМБ с выполнением российской стороной Договора РСМД. А кроме того, он сделал попытку связать этот отказ и с переговорами о сокращении тактических ядерных вооружений, которые никогда не велись на официальном уровне между Москвой и Вашингтоном. Причём не велись по целому ряду причин.
 
Во-первых, вследствие географического дисбаланса размещения тактического ядерного оружия (ТЯО) между Россией и Соединёнными Штатами. Как известно, этот класс ядерных вооружений Пентагон по-прежнему официально сохраняет в Европе и азиатской части Турции, то есть за пределами своей территории, в то время как российская сторона вывезла всё советское ТЯО на свою территорию ещё к середине девяностых годов. 
Во-вторых, из-за выдвижения Соединёнными Штатами, Великобританией и Францией авиации двойного назначения на передовые рубежи поближе к российской территории.
В-третьих, с учётом необоснованного развёртывания американских ракет-перехватчиков наземного и морского базирования в Европе и вокруг него также в непосредственной близости от России. 
В-четвёртых, по причине предпринятого в 2012 году оперативного объединения ядерных, противоракетных и обычных вооружений США и НАТО в Европе и в других районах земного шара в виде «чикагской триады». 
В-пятых, в результате значительного наращивания тяжёлых видов вооружений, а также создания новых стратегических командно-штабных структур и сил повышенной готовности США и НАТО в Европе.
Кстати, нельзя не подчеркнуть, что нынешняя американская администрация в обновлённой 2 февраля этого года ядерной доктрине страны вообще не ставит в практической плоскости вопрос о проведении переговоров о сокращении тактических ядерных вооружений с кем бы то ни было. Более того, она явно настроена на их глубокую модернизацию и применение в виде боезарядов малой мощности. К ним западное экспертное сообщество относит ядерные боезаряды мощностью менее 15 килотонн, то есть меньше мощности атомной авиабомбы, сброшенной американцами на Хиросиму в августе 1945 года.
 
Естественно, господин Суфер и другие американские официальные представители всё это прекрасно знают. Но продолжают искусственно увязывать одни виды вооружений с другими, сознательно путать терминологические определения ракет различного класса, выдвигать заведомо неприемлемые для России условия для некого торга. Делает Вашингтон это для того, чтобы, с одной стороны, снять с себя все возможные подозрения, а с другой – оказать дополнительное давление на нашу страну, и тем самым продолжить наращивать военный потенциал США.
 
Автор:  Владимир КОЗИН, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России.

Почему американцы готовы «плыть против течения»

Договор о РСМД мешает реализации планов по наращиванию ударного потенциала вблизи границ России и Китая.
Заявления представителей администрации США о намерении выйти из Договора об ограничении ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД) вызвали негативную реакцию мирового сообщества. Многие государства, даже ближайшие союзники США, опасаются, что демонтаж этого российско-американского договора подорвёт существующую систему контроля над вооружениями и расшатает основы стратегической стабильности. Против слома ДРСМД выступила и Россия, заявив, что выход Вашингтона из соглашения повлечёт за собой ответные шаги Москвы по восстановлению военно-политического баланса.
 
Тем не менее Белый дом пока не собирается отказываться от своего намерения. При этом предпринимает попытки оправдать свои действия, обвинив Россию в мнимых нарушениях ДРСМД, а также другие страны, прежде всего Китай, в нежелании присоединиться к этому соглашению. Для этого американцы, как стало известно, почему-то решили ставить перед Москвой вопрос о вовлечении в процесс ограничения баллистических ракет Индии, Ирана, КНР и Пакистана, которые располагают ракетами средней и меньшей дальности, но участниками Договора о ликвидации РСМД не являются.
Как заметил в связи с этим глава российского внешнеполитического ведомства Сергей Лавров в воскресной телепрограмме Первого канала, Москва предложила Вашингтону самостоятельно выяснить у названных государств их позицию по данному вопросу.
 
Интересно также, что ранее Россия неоднократно предлагала Соединённым Штатам придать двустороннему и бессрочному договору 1987 года универсальный характер, то есть сделать его многосторонним. Дело в том, что за время, прошедшее с момента подписания договора, многие страны стали обладателями ракет средней и меньшей дальности. Например, Израиль создал целое семейство ракет «Иерихон», попадающих в диапазон действия договора. Согласно данным независимых экспертов, ими оснащено 2-е крыло ВВС Израиля на авиабазе Сдот-Миха неподалёку от Иерусалима. В КНДР уже около десяти лет стоит на вооружении баллистическая ракета средней дальности «Тэпходон-1». Она имеет максимальную дальность, по разным оценкам, от 3200 км до 4000 км.
 
Москва и Пекин активно выступают против американских планов наращивания ударно-боевых элементов глобальной системы ПРО, превращения космического пространства в арену военного противостояния.
 
Собственные ракеты средней и меньшей дальности есть также у Китая, Великобритании, Франции, Индии, Ирана и ряда других стран. Считается, что в общей сложности 32 государства либо имеют на вооружении ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, либо располагают инженерно-производственной базой для их производства. Очевидно, что для укрепления международной стабильности и безопасности присоединение этих стран к ДРСМД было бы большим плюсом. Но на протяжении всего времени действия договора Соединённые Штаты отказывались от расширения числа его участников, видимо, не желая, чтобы его реализация затронула военные интересы их ближайших союзников.
 
В связи с этим возникает вполне естественный вопрос: почему же в Вашингтоне вдруг вновь заговорили о необходимости подключения к Договору о ликвидации РСМД других государств? Одна из причин, возможно, кроется в обострении американо-китайских торговых, и не только, отношений. Не случайно в ключевых национальных военно-стратегических установках, утверждённых в период президентства Дональда Трампа, Китайская Народная Республика стала именоваться «противником номер один».
 
Однако то, каким образом Белый дом предложил охватить договором Китай, больше напоминает шантаж, чем хорошо продуманное предложение. Именно так и отреагировали в Пекине на слова американского президента: «Китай не включён в договор, он должен быть включён в него». Как заявила во вторник на брифинге официальный представитель МИД КНР Хуа Чуньин, Китай в своей оборонной политике придерживается защиты собственных интересов в сфере безопасности и не приемлет шантаж в любой форме. «В очередной раз призываем США прекратить двигаться против течения. По этому вопросу необходимо сначала трижды подумать и только потом предпринимать действия», – подчеркнула Хуа Чуньин.
 
Не приходится сомневаться, что аналогичным же образом отреагировали бы на такое высказывание Дональда Трампа и другие страны – обладатели ракет средней и меньшей дальности. Особенно видя, что в США сложилась тенденция, когда один президент заключает договор, а другой отказывается от него, поскольку считает, что он якобы противоречит американским национальным интересам. Так было с договором по противоракетной обороне и соглашением об ограничениях иранской ядерной программы, а сейчас Дональд Трамп отказывается от ДРСМД и подумывает это же сделать с Договором СНВ-3 (Договор между Российской Федерацией и Соединёнными Штатами Америки о мерах по дальнейшему сокращению и ограничению стратегических наступательных вооружений, подписанный в 2010 году. – Ред.).
Почему, зададимся вопросом, застопорился вопрос о денуклеаризации Корейского полуострова, решение которого, казалось бы, сдвинулось с мёртвой точки? Да всё потому, что в Пхеньяне не хотят расставаться со своими ядерными вооружениями, в том числе и ракетами, не имея от США прочных гарантий безопасности своей страны. Одних слов американских представителей на этот счёт северокорейцам недостаточно, да и к договору, если его предложит заключить Белый дом, в нынешних условиях особого доверия у них уже нет.
 
По сути, складывается ситуация, когда страны скоро вообще перестанут доверять Вашингтону и будут отказываться заключать с ним какие-либо соглашения. И в этом видится другая причина изложенного подхода США о подключении к Договору о ликвидации РСМД новых участников: сделать это руками России, а если не получится, вбить клин между Москвой и рядом других стран, с которыми у России сложились дружественные отношения.
 
В сложившихся условиях Москва и Пекин активно выступают против американских планов усиления ядерных потенциалов стратегического и тактического назначения, наращивания ударно-боевых элементов глобальной системы ПРО, превращения космического пространства в арену военного противостояния.
По большому счету всё это прекрасно осознают в Вашингтоне, но плетут интриги, чтобы оправдать свои планы по размещению в Европе и Азии новых ракет, принципиальное решение о создании которых, видимо, уже принято в США.
 
Автор: В.П. Козин, Источник: "Красная звезда"
 
Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/42693

Почему не выполняется договоренность ООН с Россией о поставках российского зерна и удобрений в нуждающиеся страны?

Как видно из поступающих сообщений, западные страны и ООН не собираются выполнять многостороннюю сделку о поставках российского зерна и удобрений нуждающимся государствам, которая была документально оформлена 22 июля прошлого года представители России, Турции, Украины и ООН.

Причина такого положения заключается не только в крайне негативном отношении Украины, многих государств-членов НАТО и Евросоюза, а также Секретариата ООН к Российской Федерации, которые ничего не сделают за последние полгода для того, чтобы такие поставки с российской стороны были начаты и осуществлялись бы бесперебойно.

Вторая причина заключается в том, подписанный в пакете, но с соответствующими обязательствами в отношении Украины в отдельном  соглашении с Киевом, Меморандум о взаимопонимании, который касается России и который был заключен с ООН, вообще не предусматривает никаких обязательств зарубежных государств и Секретариата ООН в отношении российских поставок зерна и удобрений другим заинтересованным государствам.

Этот документ полностью размещен на Интернет-сайте МИД России 12 сентября 2022 года. Он называется: «Меморандум о взаимопонимании между Российской Федерацией и Секретариатом Организации Объединенных Наций о содействии продвижению российских продуктов питания и удобрений на мировые рынки».

Как бы это ни звучало странно, но этот документ реально не предусматривает никаких обязательств Секретариата ООН перед нашей страной, что вытекает из самого текста Меморандума. Описанные особенности проявляются в трех случаях.

1. Так, в его пункте 4 документа дословно записано следующее: «Настоящий Меморандум не является международным договором и не устанавливает каких-либо прав или обязательств по международному праву». Но если этот документ не является международным договором, то он может рассматриваться только в качестве декларации о намерениях, которую можно не выполнять. Тем более, что документ не устанавливает каких-либо прав или обязательств по международному праву.

2. Невыполнению этого Меморандума содействует расплывчатые формулировки, которые касаются встречных обязательств со стороны Секретариата ООН. В пункте 2 они сводятся только к его «согласию продолжать усилия по содействию обеспечению транспарентных и беспрепятственных поставок» продовольствия и удобрений, включая сырье для их производства (в том числе аммиак), поступающих из Российской Федерации, на мировые рынки, а также к усилиям этой структуры по «содействию устранению препятствий, которые могут возникнуть в сферах финансов, страхования и логистики». Но эти положения относятся лишь к «содействию» чему-то, но не к выполнению конкретных обязательств Секретариата ООН.

3. Секретариат ООН уже не раз заявлял о своем согласии о продолжении обозначенных усилий двоякого рода, но на деле пока ничего не сделал для реализации достигнутой договоренности с российской стороной, опираясь на формулировку «продолжать усилия по содействию» обеспечению транспарентных и беспрепятственных поставок продовольствия и удобрений российской стороной.

Манкируя своими обязанностями, Секретариат ООН убеждает всех, что он по-прежнему продолжает «усилия по содействию» реализации достигнутой сделки, но у него, мол, ничего не получается. Скорее всего, и не получится, так как это показали прошедшие полгода со времени достижения «зерновой и удобренческой» сделки. Сравнение политико-правового и юридического содержания соглашения с Украиной и текста Меморандума показывает, что такая сделка была заключена только в интересах одного государства, а именно Украины. Россию же вновь обвели вокруг пальца.

Расплывчатая формулировка «продолжать усилия по содействию» в данном контексте не влечетет никаких обязательств Секретариата ООН перед российской стороной. Кроме того, описанные действия названный орган может продолжать бесконечно, причем, не отвечая за отсутствие конкретного результата, поскольку Меморандум «не устанавливает каких-либо прав или обязательств по международному праву», как это записано в его втором пункте.

Причина создавшегося положения заключается в отсутствии профессионального сопровождения договоренности от 22 июля с нашей стороны. К сожалению, такая ситуация уже повторялась многократно на других переговорных направлениях.

В этой связи представляется целесообразным: 1) поручить соответствующим федеральным министерствам и ведомствам России более тщательно укомплектовывать российские делегации, которые ведут переговоры с зарубежными делегациями по вопросам, затрагивающими национальные интересы нашего государства, обращая при этом особое внимание на весь делегационный подбор кадров сверху донизу, то есть начиная с глав делегаций и их заместителей вплоть до их членов и экспертов; 2) внимательно и обстоятельно контролировать в Центре политическое и юридическое содержание на всех этапов подготовки проектов международных договоренностей в виде договоров и соглашений, заключаемых с зарубежными государствами, вплоть до подписания таких договорных актов и до их вступления в силу.

Автор: В.П. Козин – член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН

 

 

Презентация монографии В.П. Козина - «Эволюция противоракетной обороны США и позиция России (1945-2013 годы)»

15 октября 2013 года в Москве в Российском институте стратегических исследований (РИСИ) состоялась презентация монографии главного советника-руководителя Группы советников директора РИСИ, члена-корреспондента РАЕН, члена Экспертного совета Межведомственной рабочей группы при Администрации Президента Российской Федерации по взаимодействию с НАТО в области ПРО В.П. Козина - «Эволюция противоракетной обороны США  и позиция России (1945-2013 годы)».

Мероприятие вызвало значительный интерес -  на нем присутствовали представители научного сообщества, Министерства обороны России и иностранных дипломатических миссий. Открыл презентацию Директор РИСИ Решетников Леонид Петрович, подчеркнув важность выхода в свет подобного издания и масштаб работы, проделанной автором. После доклада В.П. Козина эксперты обсудили проблемы, рассматриваемые в книге, и задали автору ряд вопросов относительно современного положения и перспектив в области ПРО.

Презентация В.П. Козина - «Эволюция противоракетной обороны США  и позиция России (1945-2013 годы)», (PPT)

Текст доклада В.П. Козина:

(слайды 1 и 2). Исхожу из того, что многие уже познакомились с монографией, либо прочитали отзывы, которые появились.[i] Поэтому в целях экономии времени не буду излагать ее содержание. Остановлюсь только на основных выводах и рекомендациях после небольшой вводной.

Меня часто спрашивают: когда я стал заниматься этой проблемой, сколько лет я работал над книгой, намерен ли продолжать работать над этой темой в дальнейшем?

Персональный интерес к проблеме ПРО возник 27 лет назад. Первая авторская публикация на эту тему появилась в октябре 1986 года, когда была опубликована рецензия на статью Джорджа Шнайтера «Последствия СОИ для Договора по ПРО»[ii]. Из статьи американского исследователя вытекало, что США основательно готовятся к выходу из этого договора – изначально через его различные специально разработанные толкования. В иностранном издании первая авторская публикация по проблематике ПРО США появилась 25 августа 2000 года. [iii]. В ней содержалось предположение о возможном выходе Вашингтона из Договора по ПРО. Первое публичное выступление на эту тему состоялось в мае 2000 года: выступил на слушаниях в Государственной Думе.[iv]

По приглашению специального представителя Президента Российской Федерации по взаимодействию с НАТО в области ПРО, постоянного представителя России при НАТО Д.О. Рогозина (в настоящее время заместитель Председателя Правительства Российской Федерации) в апреле 2011 года вошел в состав Экспертного совета Межведомственной рабочей группы по взаимодействию с НАТО в области ПРО, созданной при Администрации Президента Российской Федерации.

К настоящему времени по данной проблематике опубликовал в общей сложности 62 статьи в Российской Федерации и за рубежом. Благодарен таким изданиям, которые позволили довести национальную российскую позицию по ПРО США до массового читателя, в т.ч. редакциям газет «Красная звезда», «Независимое военное обозрение», «Moscow Times», «Washington Times» и «Helsinki Times», а также журналам «Международная жизнь», «Проблемы национальной стратегии», «Российское военное обозрение», «Национальная оборона», «Вестник аналитики», телекомпании «Russia Today», радиовещательной корпорации «Голос России», Интернет-газете «Столетие» и другим. Разумеется, эта книга не увидела бы свет без сильной поддержки руководства РИСИ. Также благодарен рецензентам, опубликовавшим отклики на эту книгу.

Монография оказалась востребованной. Она была распространена в НАТО и в Европарламенте  на английском языке. Книга также издана в сокращенном виде на английском языке[v], готовится к печати ее краткое издание на финском языке.

Какие выводы и практические рекомендации можно сделать на основе проведенного исследования?

Первое. (слайд 3). США и их ближайшие партнеры по НАТО продолжают наращивать противоракетные ударно-боевые средства в виде ракет-перехватчиков и информационно-разведывательных средств глобальной системы ПРО, в том числе в непосредственной близости от России, несмотря на ее многочисленные возражения и попытки решить эту проблему с ее участием на основе принципа равенства и равной безопасности. (слайд 4). Практически на постоянное боевое патрулирование в моря, близко расположенные к Российской Федерации, включая Баренцево, Средиземное и Черное моря, переведены корабельные группировки ВМС США, оснащенные БИУС «Иджис» с самыми совершенными ракетами-перехватчиками типа «Стэндард-3». Наличие у Соединенных Штатов сегодня 29 кораблей этого класса в виде крейсеров и эсминцев позволяет им держать под противоракетным контролем большую часть морей и океанов.

Второе. (слайд 5) Создана и в реальном времени протестирована система оперативного взаимодействия командно-управленческих структур глобальной системы ПРО США и НАТО, в том числе с корабельными группировками американских ВМС с БИУС «Иджис» (слайд 6). Ключевой особенностью нынешнего этапа развертывания американской глобальной системы ПРО является ее органическая оперативная «сцепка» с ракетно-ядерными и обычными вооружениями США и НАТО, в том числе с ракетно-ядерными средствами Великобритании и Франции, а в последние годы и с высокоточными и высокоскоростными системами вооружений США (слайды 7 и 8).

Принципиально важно, что практическое применение всей этой комбинированной системы основывается на доктрине наступательного ядерного сдерживания США, главными постулатами которой были и остаются готовность применить ядерное оружие в первом ударе (слайд 9 и 10).

Третье. Периодически продолжаются испытания ударно-боевых средств ПРО США всех видов базирования, в том числе в наземном и морском варианте. (слайд 11) Повышается их точность поражения, дальность полета и скорость движения. Появились образцы противоракет, оснащенные несколькими ударно-кинетическими боеголовками индивидуального наведения – своего рода противоракетные средства с РГЧ ИН. Испытаны противоракетные средства с одновременным перехватом и уничтожением нескольких целей в виде баллистических и крылатых ракет. Проведены комбинированные испытания с одновременным использованием наземных и морских систем ПРО разного эшелона перехвата.

Четвертое. Практически в прежних объемах осуществляется, а также в будущем будет осуществляться солидное финансирование противоракетных программ Пентагона – в пределах 8 млрд.долл. ежегодно. Успешно будет завершен второй год второго этапа ЕПАП. В 2014 году США примут на вооружение 180 ракет-перехватчиков «Стэндард-3» модификаций IA и IB, а также 98 ракет-перехватчиков системы ПРО ТВД для перехвата целей на заключительной фазе полета.

Пятое. (слайд 12) Соединенные Штаты одновременно расширяют масштабы военно-технического сотрудничества в сфере ПРО в отдельными региональными государствами, не входящими в Североатлантический союз, которые расположены в зоне АТР, на Ближнем и Среднем Востоке, а также в районе Персидского залива. В ближайшие годы комбинированный американский и региональный противоракетный потенциал в этой зоне составит до 800 ракет-перехватчиков класса «Пэтриот» и ПРО ТВД «THAAD».  (слайд 12 а).

Шестое (Каковы перспективы развертывания противоракетной инфраструктуры США? (слайд 13). Заявления по противоракетной проблематике высшего американского военно-политического руководства, Министерства обороны и его Управления по противоракетной обороне, а также Государственного департамента показывают, что Вашингтон не намерен снижать темпов развертывания средств перехвата баллистических и крылатых ракет наземного и морского базирования, основную долю которых составят именно корабельные противоракетные средства. ВМС США также не собираются ограничивать их развертывание в Мировом океане. К 2020 году Пентагон закупит 678 ракет-перехватчиков «Стандард-3» различных модификаций.

После 2022 года, то есть уточненного срока действия нынешней программы развертывания системы ПРО в глобальном масштабе, Пентагон планирует реализовать новую долгосрочную противоракетную программу. Создание к 2041 году группировки из 84 кораблей с противоракетными средствами в еще большей степени увеличит степень охвата американскими  противоракетными средствами морских и океанских пространств.

Седьмое. Складывается впечатление, что США и их ближайшие союзники по НАТО не намерены создавать совместную систему ПРО с российскими Вооруженными Силами. (слайд 14). Оставлены без внимания семь специально сделанных заявлений российского руководства по противоракетной проблематике. В Вашингтоне и в штаб-квартире НАТО в Брюсселе проигнорированы два основных предложения российской стороны, направленные на разрешение этой проблемы. Заблокирована идея о «разделении труда» при возможном совместном использовании противоракетных средств между Россией и США и НАТО (т.н. секторальный подход). Проигнорировано российское предложение о предоставлении юридических, а не политических гарантий ненаправленности американо-натовской системы ПРО против российских СЯС, разумеется, на основе взаимности. В течение последних 12 лет, прошедших после одностороннего выхода США из Договора по ПРО, Вашингтон продолжает уклоняться от конкретизации того, как и каким образом будет реализована «кооперативная» система ПРО ведущих стран Запада с Российской Федерацией.

Вся эта разветвленная противоракетная инфраструктура США и НАТО помимо Ирана и КНДР и сейчас и в будущем будет направлена против СЯС Российской Федерации и КНР. Эффективность применения таких средств против России будет повышена путем развертывания в ближайшие годы американских оперативных противоракетных комплексов на территории Румынии (к концу 2015 года) (слайд 15) и  Польши (в 2018 году) (слайд 16). В суммарном виде это будет 48 ракет-перехватчиков плюс до 200-300 ракет-перехватчиков морского базирования, если считать по кораблям ВМС США со средствами ПРО, которые развернуты в Атлантическом океане.

Все это свидетельствует о том, что система ПРО США не виртуальное явление и не «информационная операция», как это пытаются представить себе некоторые исследователи, а объективная реальность.

В монографии в критическом ключе подробно проанализированы практически все «компромиссные» предложения по разрешению проблемы ПРО, появившиеся за последнее десятилетие в нашей стране и за рубежом. Коренной недостаток этих идей состоит в том, что они не предусматривают существенных ограничений на систему ПРО США, зачастую не учитывают ее реальные военно-технические и военно-политические составляющие. Некоторые исследователи попадают «на удочку» специально скомпонованной дезинформации по части ТТХ ракет-перехватчиков американской системы ПРО, предназначенной для того, чтобы показать ее «слабость и неэффективность». Опасность действий российских сторонников развертывания ПРО США у рубежей России также состоит в том, что они создают ложную иллюзию в столицах ведущих стран НАТО в том, что российское руководство вот-вот можно уговорить согласиться с ПРО США в том виде, в котором она существует, то есть направленной против СЯС России. Это крайне непатриотическая позиция.

Восьмое. Обозначенные выше обстоятельства и факты показывают, что США не намерены вводить какие-либо ограничения на развертывание своей системы ПРО. Их конкретные дела в этой области и заявления их военно-политического руководства свидетельствуют об этом. Об этом еще в 2011 году известил сенаторов в письменном виде президент Барак Обама. Об этом также заявила 26 сентября 2013 года Роуз Гёттемюллер, выдвинутая им на пост заместителя государственного секретаря по контролю над вооружениями и международной безопасности (ранее к этой должности имела приставку «и.о.»).

Одностороннее и ничем не ограниченное развертывание глобальной системы ПРО США и НАТО может иметь негативные последствия не только для России, ее союзников и друзей. Это в целом может иметь глубочайшие последствия глобального характера. Вполне может возникнуть новый «Карибский кризис», но на сей раз противоракетный. Его принципиальное отличие от кризиса 1962 года, также созданного американским военно-политическим руководством, от грядущего заключается в том, что Соединенные Штаты будут иметь в этом новом варианте гораздо больше противоракетных сил и средств, чем у них было более 50 лет тому назад. Сейчас это позволит им обеспечить себе большую степень прикрытия от ответного удара ракетно-ядерного возмездия в случае возникновения какой-то чрезвычайной ситуации.

Итак, проблема ПРО в российско-американских отношениях – это не проблема недопонимания между Москвой и Вашингтоном. Это проблема столкновения различных коренных государственных военно-политических и военно-стратегических интересов между Россией и США. Продавливание Пентагоном задачи создания глобальной системы ПРО не зависит от качества наших взаимоотношений, даже если они окажутся идеальными.

Принципиально важный момент: эта проблема создана Соединенными Штатами, а не Россией. Эта проблема – результат все той же американской «исключительности». Она – следствие хронической болезни США, именуемой как «военно-силовой гегемонизм». Это – результат неадекватного представления многих поколений американского руководства о доминирующей силовой роли Соединенных Штатов в мировых делах при игнорировании законных интересов других государств, в том числе и тех, которых они относят к разряду своих «стратегических партнеров».

В английском языке есть поговорка: «No call a spade a spade» - «Называть вещи своими именами». Так вот, если называть вещи своими именами, то развертывание эшелонированной системы ПРО США совместно с ядерными и обычными видами вооружений передового базирования у рубежей России, в том числе с высокоточными, является самой мощной долговременной провокационной акцией Вашингтона после завершения «холодной войны». Она превосходит по своим последствиям и «Карибский кризис» 1962 года, и «двойное ракетно-ядерное решение» НАТО 1979 года поскольку ракетно-ядерные средства США в этих двух случаях не прикрывались таким количеством американских ракет-перехватчиков, как в настоящее время.

 По этим причинам эта проблема является главной, а не второстепенной в российско-американских отношениях. От характера и сроков ее решения будет зависеть урегулирование других актуальных проблем сокращения вооружений и ограничения военной деятельности.

Практические предложения

Есть, вероятно, два пути урегулирования конфликта коренных государственных военно-политических и военно-стратегических интересов между Россией и США в области ПРО: мирный и силовой.

(слайд 17) Мирный способ может основываться на латинском слове «caveat» – «предупреждение, основанное на опыте». В складывающихся условиях представляется важным и целесообразным от имени российского военно-политического руководства вновь сделать специальное заявление по противоракетной проблематике с США, усилив в нем нашу прежнее изложенную позицию новыми мерами военно-технического и военно-политического характера.

В этом заявлении можно было бы обратить внимание американской стороны и мировой общественности в целом, что размещаемые в непосредственной близости от России американские противоракетные, тактические ядерные средства и обычные вооружения относятся к средствам передового базирования, которые создают непосредственную и перманентную угрозу стратегического характера для национальной безопасности Российской Федерации, а также подрывают глобальный военно-стратегический баланс сил и ведут к росту недоверия между ядерными державами. У России нет аналогичных средств передового базирования у границ Соединенных Штатов. Нетрудно представить себе реакцию Вашингтона, если бы они были развернуты у его порога.

Необходимо более решительно, чем прежде, потребовать от Вашингтона прекращения реализации планов по наращиванию группировки противоракетных сил и средств в Европе, в том числе строительства оперативных комплексов ПРО в Румынии и Польше, а также в АТР, на Ближнем и Среднем Востоке.

Целесообразно предложить Белому дому создать на взаимной основе в определенных районах Мирового океана, прилегающих к России и США, зоны, свободные не только от ракетно-ядерного, но и от противоракетного оружия.

Требуется новый Договор по ПРО, но уже на многосторонней основе, который ограничивал бы масштабы ничем не ограниченного развертывания противоракетных систем в мире. Он мог бы устанавливать лимиты на размещение наземных противоракетных сил и средств соответствующих государств за пределами национальных границ, а его участниками могли бы выступить все государства, располагающие потенциалом создания систем ПРО, да и вообще все страны, желающие присоединиться к нему.

(слайд 18). Если же эти меры окажутся нереализованными, то необходимо разработать комплекс более жестких, чем прежде военно-технических и военно-политических ответных мер. Поскольку нельзя допустить, чтобы проблема ПРО, навязанная Соединенными Штатами, вернула всех нас в годы новой «холодной войны» в качественно ином, более опасном, измерении.

Президент США Авраам Линкольн однажды заметил, что он всегда одерживал победы, когда своих врагов он превращал в друзей. Развертывая комбинированные ядерные, обычные и противоракетные средства у российских рубежей Вашингтон никогда не сделает Россию своим другом. Было бы хорошо, если бы в Вашингтоне и штаб-квартире НАТО поняли это.

Со своей стороны намерен и впредь продолжать работать над этой важной темой, которая выходит за рамки российско-американских и российско-натовских отношений, являясь одной из ключевых проблем глобальной военно-политической повестки дня на длительную перспективу.

Разумеется, конструктивные критические замечания приму с благодарностью. С удовольствием готов ответить на Ваши вопросы. Спасибо.

 

 

 

 

 


[i]  Кузарь В. Правда о противоракетном щите//Красная звезда. 2013. 11 июля; Евсеев В. Парадоксы ползучей ПРО. Противоракетная система США создается под явно надуманным предлогом//Независимое военное обозрение. № 35. 2013. 13-19 сентября.

[ii]  Козин В. Последствия СОИ для Договора по ПРО//Бюллетень научной информации. Москва: Дипломатическая Академия МИД СССР. 1986. №10, С. 10-14.

[iii]   Kozin V. Ins and Outs of Missile Defense System//The Moscow Times. 2000.25 August.

[iv]   Краткий отчет о слушаниях изложен в: Дипкурьер. № 11. 2000. 22 июня.

[v] Kozin V. Evolution of the US Ballistic Missile Defense System and Russia’s Stance. Moscow: InfoRos.2013. 142 pp.

 

Проблемы, связанные с политикой Запада на Украине

1. Кто наживается на Украине?

Страны «Большой семерки» выделят Украине 24 млрд долларов, говорится в заявлении G7. МВФ рассматривает запрос Киева о предоставлении ежемесячной финансовой помощи в размере 5 млрд долларов, а Евросоюз – 7 млрд евро.

Объемы помощи Украине со стороны европейских стран постоянно растут. Только в марте на поставки Киеву вооружений и военной техники Европа потратила более 6 млрд долларов. Ежедневно только из бюджетов европейских стран на «войну» Украине перечисляется 200 – 300 млн евро.

По данным Transparency International, в 2021 году Украина заняла первое место в Европе в рейтинге стран по уровню коррупции. При этом от Киева отчетности о целевом расходовании средств не требуется.

Поэтому растут аппетиты украинских олигархов. Советник Зеленского по экономическим вопросам Олег Устенко уже оценил ущерб, нанесенный Украине в размере 400 млрд евро, которые он предлагает взять из замороженных Западом российских активов. Премьер Польши призвал ЕС составить план восстановления Украины стоимостью 100 млрд евро. Куда же уходят деньги?

Каждый день войны на Украине приносит немалый доход действующему украинскому руководству. За счет кредитов МВФ, срочных субсидий и военных кредитов США и ЕС, команда Зеленского зарабатывает от 140 до 200 млн долларов в сутки.

Выпуск Украиной военных облигаций, закупки ГСМ для армии (зачастую на бумаге), расходы на медицину и транспорт, выплаты ВСУ и иным тратам состоят на 60 процентов откатовьи «распилов». Современный подход демонстрирует глава СБУ Баканов, перешедший на оплату в криптовалюте Этериум, списывающий 20-30 млн евро в неделю на несуществующие спецоперации и защищенную связь. Руководитель офиса президента Украины Андрей Ермак накапливает до 5 млн долларов   в неделю на сборах с региональных олигархов за «крышу» от тербатов и нацбатов. Только в марте на счета Зеленского, Порошенко, Новинского, Шуфрича, Бойко, Ермака, Арахамии, Авакова, Турчинова и Гереги в польских банках Pekao Bank, WBK Bank, Reiffeisen Polbank, Credit Agricole, Bank Polska поступило более 2 млрд евро.

В дальнейшем конгресс США обеспечивает перевод этих средств на их офшорные счета без должных проверок.

На протяжении последних месяцев сотрудники киевской администрации, отвечающие за доставку и распределение гуманитарной помощи, предлагают коммерсантам, закупающим продукты из собственных средств, а также волонтерским организациям передавать половину гуманитарной помощи «на нужды киевлян» без документального оформления сделки.

В последующем содержимое гумпоставок реализуется через рынки и мелкие магазины. Злоупотребления покрываются за счет пожаров на складах, якобы разрушенных в результате ударов российских вооруженных сил.

2. К позиции бизнеса ФРГ

Немецкий бизнес настоятельно не рекомендует правительству Германии останавливать поставки российских углеводородов в страну. Берлин признает критическую зависимость экономики страны от энергопоставок из России, но являясь фактическим заложником политических амбиций США, решение о переходе на российскую валюту в расчетах за газ принять не может.

При этом экспертами министерства экономики и климата ФРГ предлагается несколько вариантов закупок газа из России в обход антироссийских санкций.

"Реверсные поставки" по примеру Украины, которая покупает газ у Словакии, а фактически получает его из России (признается наиболее целесообразным). Главным посредником может стать Венгрия, которая будет приобретать необходимый ФРГ объем энергоресурсов за российскую валюту, а затем перепродавать Берлину. Для реализации данной схемы можно использовать инфраструктуру газопроводов "Северный поток-1", "Ямал-Европа" и ГТС Украины.

Закупка рублевой массы через российские банки, которые не попали под европейские санкции. С этой целью создаются дочерние германские фирмы на территории России, на счета которых переводятся евро с последующей конвертацией в рубли на московской бирже.

Покупка российских углеводородов за рубли приведет лишь к их подорожанию на 5-15 процентов, полный же отказ ФРГ от закупок российского сырья – к экстремальному росту цен на газ до 4 тыс. долларов за 1 тыс. куб. м.

По данным немецких экономистов в любом случае в результате «эффекта бумеранга» от антироссийских санкций в текущем году Германия вынуждена будет заплатить рекордную сумму за покупку российских нефти, газа и угля в размере 33,9 млрд евро. Прогнозируется, расходы Германии за оплату российского газа вырастут с 8,8 до 17,6 млрд, за нефть – с 11,4 до 14,3 млрд, за уголь – до 2 млрд евро.

3.  К проблеме британских наемников

В блокированном российскими войсками Мариуполе находятся иностранцы, в том числе граждане Великобритании. Они принимают активное участие в боевых действиях против российских Вооруженных Сил в качестве наемников и военных инструкторов.

Вероятно, они же курируют деятельность, расположенной в тоннелях под заводом «Азовсталь» секретной биологической лаборатории США.

13 апреля сдался в плен гражданин Великобритании 28-летний Эйден Эслин, известный как «CossakGundi». В 2015 году он принимал участие в боевых действиях в Сирийской Арабской Республике в составе курдской группировки «Львы Рожавы».

После возвращения на родину Эслин был задержан по подозрению в пособничестве терроризму, но оправдан ввиду того, что «действия его группировки не нарушали интересы Великобритании».

17 апреля среди взятых в плен военнослужащих 36-й бригады морской пехоты ВСУ оказался очередной гражданин Соединенного Королевства, 48-летний Шон Пиннер. Британец получил обширный опыт участия в боевых действиях в Боснии в 1994 году и на северо-востоке Сирии в 2015 году.

Оба пленных британских наемника, подозреваемых в сотрудничестве с Ми-6, 18 апреля обратились к премьер-министру Великобритании с просьбой об обмене на задержанного СБУ лидера украинской партии «Оппозиционная платформа – за жизнь» Виктора Медведчука.

Пленение британских наемников российскими Вооруженными Силами представляет угрозу для Лондона, так как они являются носителями сведений об участии военнослужащих НАТО в боевых действиях на территории Украины.

Именно с этим связано отсутствие публичных попыток британского руководства вызволить своих граждан из военного плена. Напротив, Лондон методично игнорирует факты наличия своих граждан в российском плену.

По различным данным в «Азовстали» все еще находятся не менее 300-400 иностранных наемников, показания которых могут послужить свидетельством того, что участие иностранных граждан на стороне националистических формирований Украины санкционировано руководствами стран НАТО.

Негативный резонанс могут вызвать и новые факты, подтверждающие британский след в запрещенной биологической деятельности Украины.

Автор: В.П. Козин

Провал переговоров по стратегической стабильности осложнит ситуацию в Европе и в мире

 
Современный мир запаздывает в решении проблем глобальной безопасности
 
Возникшая несколько лет назад драматическая ситуация в военно-политической сфере на Европейском континенте грозит перерасти в еще большие противоречия между Россией и государствами, входящими в НАТО, если обе стороны продолжат практику взаимных обвинений и не согласятся всерьез и основательно обсудить практические схемы, ведущие к стабилизации остановки в Европе и в мире в целом.
 
Одной из таких площадок может стать специальный саммит между президентами России и США Владимиром Путиным и Дональдом Трампом по контролю над вооружениями и укреплению стратегической стабильности, не отягощенный другими проблемами современных международных отношений. Предложения о его проведении звучали еще в период президентства Барака Обамы, но они так и не были реализованы ни при нем, ни при нынешнем президенте Соединенных Штатов Дональде Трампе. Главной причиной этого явления стало отсутствие доверия между двумя странами, которое не позволяет вырабатывать взаимоприемлемые рекомендации в интересах укрепления региональной и международной безопасности и повышения уровня стратегической стабильности.
 
Возник порочный круг, описанный президентом Рональдом Рейганом незадолго до встречи с тогдашним советским лидером Михаилом Горбачевым более трех десятилетий назад. Когда группа советских журналистов поинтересовалась у президента-республиканца: «Почему США и СССР не доверяют друг другу?» - он произнес им максиму следующего содержания: «Люди не доверяют друг другу, потому что вооружаются, и они вооружаются потому, что не доверяют друг другу».
 
Сухая статистика, которая характеризует сегодня нынешнее состояние стратегической стабильности Европе и в глобальном измерении, поражает, насколько современный мир отстал от решения важнейших проблем цивилизации в такой сфере, как контроль над вооружениями.
 
В настоящее время между Москвой и Вашингтоном существуют 16 нерешенных проблем в области контроля над вооружениями, среди которых есть вопросы, не требующие отлагательства, например свободное и неограниченное применение ядерного оружия стратегического и тактического назначения в любой точке земного шара, кроме космического пространства.
 
К сожалению, факт остается фактом: обе стороны не ведут между собой никаких переговоров по этому направлению исключительной важности, которое оказывает сильное воздействие на всю международную военно-политическую атмосферу, а не только на степень отношений между двумя великими державами.
 
В общей сложности американская сторона нарушает или игнорирует целый ряд договоров в области контроля над вооружениями: в том числе нарушает положения двусторонних документов - Договора СНВ-3 и Соглашения об утилизации избыточного оружейного плутония, а также международные договоренности в виде Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия, Договора по открытому небу, обязательства по Венскому документу 2011 года о мерах укрепления доверия и безопасности.
 
Серьезные претензии к США есть и по поводу выполнения двух международных конвенций, касающихся оружия массового уничтожения: конвенции о запрещении химического и конвенции о запрещении  бактериологического (биологического) оружия.
 
Вашингтон еще в 2002 году в одностороннем порядке вышел из Договора по ПРО, который многие американские президенты считали «краеугольным камнем глобальной стабильности».
 
Начиная с 2001 года, когда Вашингтон только объявил об одностороннем выходе из Договора по ПРО и Пентагон приступил к проверке эффективности ударных систем противоракетной обороны в виде ракет-перехватчиков, американская сторона 93 раза нарушила Договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности 1987 года, поскольку применяла в качестве перехватываемых целей ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, запрещенные им.
 
В этой статистике, в частности, учитывается испытание системы ПРО, проведенное американскими вооруженными силами в районе Гавайских островов 31 января этого года.
 
Производство и применение Пентагоном ударных БПЛА, которые по Договору о ликвидации РСМД подпадают под определение крылатых ракет наземного базирования, также является его нарушением. Еще одним нарушением станет принятие на вооружение новой американской мобильно-грунтовой крылатой ракеты наземного базирования с ядерным боезарядом. В прошлом году американский конгресс выделил ассигнования на ее разработку и создание.
 
Юридически оставаясь в рамках договора 1987 года, американская сторона фактически уже давно вышла из него.
 
Кроме того, США не ратифицировали адаптированный Договор об обычных вооруженных силах в Европе и Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний, заявляя о готовности отказаться от его ратификации вообще и возобновить ядерные испытания в Неваде.
 
В Вашингтоне не проявляют никакого интереса к реализации проектов новых договоренностей: Договора о европейской безопасности и Договора о предотвращении размещения оружия в космическом пространстве.
 
Не слишком ли много нарушений и блокировок? Очень. Ведь в этом списке до десятка нарушенных, заблокированных или торпедированных договоров в названной сфере со стороны Вашингтона.
 
Нынешняя администрация пока не проявляет никакого желания изменить свою позицию по этой проблематике. В апреле этого года  президент Дональд Трамп лишь поставил в одном из своих твитов вопрос: «Может, прекратить гонку вооружений?» Но так и не дал на него внятного ответа.  При этом надо учитывать, что уход от субстантивного обсуждения этой проблемы происходит на фоне масштабных военных приготовлений США и НАТО в непосредственной близости от границ многих государств. По признанию весьма осведомленного человека в делах Североатлантического союза – его генерального секретаря Йенса Столтенберга – военная активность альянса в Европе после 2014 года возросла в пять раз.
 
На Европейском континенте остается американское тактическое ядерное оружие, которое находится под полным и единоличным контролем Вашингтона. Очень скоро оно будет модернизировано. Под него уже производятся новые авиационные средства доставки. По этой причине данное обстоятельство представляется весьма важным и требующим решения. Похоже, что Европу вновь, как это было после «двойного решения» НАТО в 1979 году, делают заложницей большой и самопроизвольной американской ракетно-ядерной игры.
 
Ситуация усугубляется тем, что нынешний и последующие американские президенты могут отдать приказ о применении ядерного оружия в первом ударе в любое время без согласия американского конгресса и союзников по трансатлантическому альянсу. Нынешняя ядерная стратегия  Соединенных Штатов впервые позволяет применять ядерные боезаряды малой мощности. В этой доктрине значительно расширено количество оснований, по которым Белый дом может первым нажать ядерную кнопку. Теперь их 14. Все это резко понижает порог применения ядерного оружия со стороны США практически в любой точке земного шара.
 
Быстрыми темпами развивается новая «чикагская триада» – стратегическое объединение ракетно-ядерных вооружений, противоракетных средств и обычных видов вооружений США и НАТО – прообраз масштабных военных операций в Европе и АТР. Такая новация была создана на саммите НАТО в Чикаго в мае 2012 года.
 
Если прошлый век был ядерным веком, то нынешнее столетие приобретает качественно новые характеристики, постепенно становясь веком ударных противоракетных и космических систем. Эти процессы бесконтрольны и в политико-правовом плане ничем не ограничены.
 
Все чаще военная сила применяется произвольно, без получения санкции на это со стороны Совета Безопасности ООН. Для этого используются нереальные предлоги и распространение лживой, сфабрикованной информации.
 
Все эти сложные вопросы можно было бы урегулировать в ходе переговоров на высшем уровне между Вашингтоном и Москвой по широкой проблематике стратегической стабильности и контролю над вооружениями.
 
Плохо, что такие переговоры до сих пор не начались.
 
Но будет еще хуже, если они где-то и когда-то начнутся, но не принесут долгожданного результата: восстановления взаимного доверия, стабильности и безопасности в интересах всех государств – на пониженных уровнях наступательных видов вооружений и ограниченной военной деятельности, с обязательством не применять ядерное оружие в первом ударе или не применять его вообще.

Продление договора СНВ-3: «предварительные условия» и непреодолимые препятствия

Лучше вообще не иметь никакого договора с США по проблематике СНВ, чем иметь плохой с точки зрения интересов национальной безопасности России и глобальной стратегической стабильности

В августе, а затем в сентябре 2020 года советник президента США по контролю над вооружениями Маршалл Биллингсли заявил, что Вашингтон готов рассмотреть продление Договора СНВ-3, но при условии согласия российской стороны с его тремя предварительными условиями:

•             решения вопроса относительно «увеличения Россией количества нестратегических ядерных вооружений»;

•             усиления верификационных механизмов по проверке выполнения продлённого варианта договора;

•             создания возможности для включения КНР в будущие договорённости по сокращению СНВ в какой-то перспективе.

Указанные условия не могут быть приняты российской стороной

«На той основе, которую предлагают американцы, хорошая сделка не просматривается», - так отреагировал на «идеи» США заместитель министра иностранных дел России Сергей Рябков, курирующий во внешнеполитическом ведомстве проблематику российско-американских отношений и контроль над вооружениями.

Во-первых, по причине отсутствия у американской стороны во всех из них конкретных деталей их реализации. Во-вторых, по существенным недостаткам, которыми страдает каждое из трёх названных направлений.

На первом направлении («нестратегические ядерные вооружения») неизбежно возникнут четыре ключевые проблемы.

Возникнет проблема терминологических определений таких вооружений. Дело в том, что все ядерные вооружения подразделяются на определённые виды в зависимости от дальности их максимального полёта (ракеты наземного базирования) или доставки (ракеты и бомбы воздушного базирования).

США и их союзники по НАТО стали использовать термин «нестратегические ядерные вооружения» для того, чтобы скрыть тот факт, что некоторые их виды ядерных вооружений тактического назначения в виде авиабомб могут одновременно выполнять как тактические ядерные задачи (если будут доставляться самолётами средней дальности), так и стратегические (если будут установлены на самолёты стратегической авиации межконтинентальной дальности).

Так, в Госдепартаменте и Министерстве обороны США одновременно стратегическими называют ядерные авиабомбы тактического назначения семейства В-61, а именно: В-61-7, В-61-11 и В-61-12. Если применять, как считает американская сторона, термин «нестратегические ядерные вооружения» к ядерным вооружениям, которые в российско-американских договорных актах не обозначены как СНВ, то из возможной договорённости по проблематике введения каких-то новых ограничений на стратегические наступательные ядерные вооружения исключаются как раз американские авиабомбы В-61-7, В-61-11 и В-61-12 с ядерной начинкой, способные выполнять стратегические задачи, если они будут установлены на американские тяжёлые стратегические бомбардировщики США.

В этой связи наиболее рациональным термином к таким видам вооружений может быть: «тактические ядерные вооружения, способные выполнять стратегические задачи».

Особенности подходов к ТЯО

Появится проблема определения количества реально существующих у сторон тактических ядерных вооружений.

Например, Москва и Вашингтон ранее публично называли точное количество своих стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений, а также ракет средней и меньшей дальности с ядерными боезарядами только после достижения договорённостей об их сокращении или уничтожении. Но ни российская, ни американская стороны никогда не сообщали общественности или друг другу точное количество своих тактических ядерных вооружений, а лишь ограничивались информацией о том, какой процент их сокращения был достигнут в рамках «президентских инициатив» 1991-1992 годов относительно некоего незаявленного абсолютного уровня. В публичных заявлениях сторон назывался максимальный уровень сокращённых вооружений этого класса в тот период времени: было сокращено и снято с вооружения около 75-80 процентов от их максимального количества (которое не было объявлено).

Существует уверенность, что запущенная американскими экспертами информация о размещении около 200 ядерных авиабомб США на европейском континенте - это нарочито заниженная цифра.

Здесь же возникнет другой практический вопрос: что делать с авиацией «двойного назначения», которая используется для доставки как ядерных, так и неядерных авиабомб? Учитывать ли такую авиацию или нет в переговорном процессе? Или просто исключить вариант доставки такими самолётами ядерного оружия путём их «ядерной десертификации», то есть путём их технического переоснащения с целью блокирования возможности доставлять ядерные боезаряды воздушного базирования на борту? Эксперты из ряда стран Североатлантического союза твёрдо заявляют, что самолёты «двойного назначения» не могут быть предметом будущих переговоров.

Российская сторона имеет право поставить перед Вашингтоном и другой вопрос: об учёте американских ядерных средств «передового базирования», то есть выдвинутых как можно ближе к российским рубежам тактических ядерных вооружений воздушного базирования в Европе и Азии.

Дело в том, что у России всё тактическое ядерное оружие размещено на её национальной территории и за рубежом не развёртывается, а российские стратегические наступательные ядерные вооружения не имеют постоянных военно-воздушных баз для базирования тяжёлой стратегической авиации в зарубежных странах, как, например, Соединённые Штаты, по сути дела, держат их на постоянной основе на авиабазе Фэйрфорд в Великобритании.

Менять верификационный механизм и привлечь КНР не получится

Второе «предварительное условие», выдвинутое Вашингтоном, а именно: «усиление верификационных механизмов по проверке продлённого варианта Договора СНВ-3» не может быть принято из-за дисбаланса в верификационном механизме, который определён в этом документе. Американцам прекрасно известно, что в этом вопросе в целом нет ничего такого, что могло бы представлять интерес для российской стороны. Верификационный режим этого договорного акта тщательно откалиброван в соответствии с теми задачами, которые он решает. Этот режим достаточен для обеспечения надёжной уверенности в том, что происходит. Договор обеспечивает требуемую предсказуемость, и нет оснований что-то менять в этой сфере.

Хотя общее количество взаимных инспекций в договоре закреплено на паритетной основе, Россия демонстрирует американским инспекционным группам свои мобильные МБР практически безответно, так как у США подобных комплексов нет: все имеющиеся у них МБР наземного базирования находятся в стационарных шахтных пусковых установках. Следует также напомнить американской стороне, что они не в полной мере демонстрируют российским инспекторам свои СНВ, что является невыполнением Договора СНВ-3 в этой части.

Третье направление переговорного процесса, выдвинутое американской стороной («создание возможности для включения КНР в будущие договорённости по сокращению СНВ») не может быть реализовано.

Во-первых, из-за значительной разницы между количеством СНВ США и СНВ КНР - в пропорции 5:1.

А во-вторых, по той причине, что Пекин уже не раз заявлял о своём нежелании участвовать в трёхсторонних переговорах о сокращении таких вооружений с американской стороной до тех пор, пока она не снизит свои стратегические наступательные ядерные вооружения до уровня, сопоставимого с китайскими ядерными СНВ.

В-третьих, вполне очевидно, что китайская сторона не может не учитывать масштабные ракетно-ядерные и противоракетные приготовления Пентагона в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе близ своей территории. Да и вообще не замечать резкую антикитайскую риторику, открыто ведущуюся в США на самом высшем государственном уровне, например, президентом, государственным секретарём и шефом Пентагона.

Новация последнего времени: Вашингтон перестал требовать немедленное подключение Китая к переговорному процессу по сокращению ядерных вооружений совместно с Россией и США. Отныне американская сторона ставит вопрос лишь о создании возможности для включения КНР в будущие договорённости по сокращению СНВ «в какой-то перспективе». Но это решать только Пекину.

То, что никак нельзя проигнорировать

Следует также отметить ещё ряд крупных обстоятельств, не затронутых в американских заявлениях о «предварительных условиях» пролонгации Договора СНВ-3.

США не хотят отказываться от участившейся практики направления тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков-носителей ядерного оружия в воздушное пространство Европы, в частности к границам России; не планируют отказываться подключать к таким «миссиям» ударную авиацию, военную авиадиспетчерскую службу, а также систему аэродромного обеспечения 19 европейских стран-членов НАТО с возможностью использования их 35 военно-воздушных баз. А ведь главной задачей таких полётов является отработка американскими Стратегическими ядерными силами практических навыков нанесения ударов крылатыми ракетами и авиабомбами, оснащёнными условными ядерными боезарядами. Оснащёнными, как представляется, сегодня. А что будет завтра?

Пентагон напрочь не желает выводить из Европы своё тактическое ядерное оружие, завезённое туда ещё в середине 1950-х, которое может выполнять стратегические ядерные задачи. Это недавно вновь открыто подтвердил Маршалл Биллингсли. Соединённые Штаты не готовы ликвидировать и инфраструктуру, где эти ядерные авиабомбы складированы, - в Бельгии, Италии, Нидерландах и ФРГ, а также на азиатской части Турции.

Но, с другой стороны, Вашингтон намерен распространить положения Договора СНВ-3 на перспективные гиперзвуковые и стратегические ядерные виды российских вооружений, хотя одновременно не заявляет о готовности включить в него аналогичные национальные вооружения, в особенности, гиперзвуковые системы и наземные МБР США нового поколения.

На этом фоне также следует учитывать, что действующая ядерная стратегия США имеет наступательный характер.

Дело в том, что Вашингтон не отказывается от стратегии нанесения первого ядерного удара, в том числе по России и КНР. Он вообще не намерен отказываться от этой стратегии. Так записано в «трамповской» ядерной стратегии.

Более того, в период своего президентства Дональд Трамп расширил возможности использования стратегического и тактического ядерного оружия, обозначив 14 оснований для его применения в региональном и глобальном масштабах, то есть в два раза повысил вероятность его реального использования по сравнению с ядерной стратегией президента Барака Обамы.

Кроме того, в своей обновлённой ядерной стратегии Соединённые Штаты по-прежнему придерживаются следующих установок: «запуск по предупреждению» («launch-on-warning»), а также применение ядерного оружия ещё «до пуска» ракетно-ядерных средств вероятного противника («launch-prior-to launch»); не отменили стратегию «эскалация с целью деэскалации», которая предусматривает применение ядерного оружия с целью урегулирования конфликтов, ведущихся с применением обычных видов вооружений. США сохраняют доктринальную установку «расширенное ядерное сдерживания», что означает раскрытие «ядерного зонтика» США над 29 своими союзниками по НАТО и четырьмя внеблоковыми странами - над Австралией, Израилем, Южной Кореей и Японией.

Вашингтон также сохраняет «соглашения о разделении ядерной ответственности» (соглашения о совместных ядерных миссиях) с большой группой стран, входящих в альянс «трансатлантической солидарности», с которыми регулярно проводятся учения с условным применением ядерного оружия воздушного базирования.

Пентагон активизирует программу применения боезарядов малой мощности до 5 килотонн: установил такие боезаряды W76-2 на атомном подводном ракетоносце «Теннесси», намерен разместить их на всех остальных тринадцати ПЛАРБ класса «Огайо» и новых ракетоносцах класса «Колумбия». С 2004 года США, а также Великобритания и Франция используют самолёты «двойного назначения» в операции ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» в небе трёх государств Балтии, ведущейся на круглосуточной и круглогодичной основе.

В лапидарном виде ядерная стратегия США базируется на «безусловном наступательном ядерном сдерживании, сохраняющем постулат нанесения первого ядерного удара».

Американское военно-политическое руководство одновременно не намерено ограничивать глобальную систему ПРО или отказываться от стратегии обеспечения военного доминирования в космическом пространстве, которое в Белом доме уже объявлено «зоной потенциальных военных действий».

Резюме

«Мы не ищем для себя никаких односторонних преимуществ, но и на односторонние уступки не пойдём». Эти слова также принадлежат Сергею Рябкову. Как уже не раз заявлялось с российской стороны, Москва не стремится к тому, чтобы продлить этот договор во что бы то ни стало.

Вполне очевидно: лучше вообще не иметь никакого договора с США по проблематике СНВ, чем иметь плохой с точки зрения интересов национальной безопасности России и глобальной стратегической стабильности.

Становится ясным, что Москва и Вашингтон физически не смогут устранить все обозначенные выше проблемы в столь короткие сроки, остающиеся до истечения периода действия Договора СНВ-3. Американские визави всё делали и до сих пор всё делают для того, чтобы этот договорный акт прекратил своё существование 5 февраля следующего года. Государственному департаменту, министерству обороны и общенациональным разведывательным структурам Соединённых Штатов уже предписано разработать практические предложения, которые им следует реализовать после прекращения срока его действия.

Похоже, что свой выбор американская сторона уже сделала. Но в таком случае уже без предположений: Вашингтон заплатит за это очень высокую цену.

Автор: Владимир Козин. Источник: еженедельник “Звезда”

 

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Вместо средней величины расходов на указанные цели в пределах 7,5-8 млрд. долларов в год, которые брала на себя администрация Барака Обамы и изначально предполагала выделять республиканская администрация во главе с Дональдом Трампом, в новом американском военном бюджете значится сумма в 12,3 млрд. долларов, что в полтора раза превышает среднюю величину ежегодного уровня ассигнований на эти цели, достигнутого при президенте Бараке Обаме.
 
Соединенные Штаты в перспективе намерены увеличить количество ракет-перехватчиков стратегического назначения типа «GBI» на своей континентальной части в Аляске и Калифорнии до 104 единиц вместо 44 единиц, которые уже развернуты в названных районах активного противоракетного противодействия к концу текущего года (собеседник напомнил, что в период президентства Барака Обамы там было установлено в общей сложности 30 ракет-перехватчиков типа «GBI»).
 
В.П.Козин обратил внимание на то, что новый военный бюджет предписывает Пентагону закупить дополнительное количество ракет-перехватчиков морского базирования БИУС «Иджис», которая показала 82% успешных перехватов учебных баллистических и крылатых ракет меньшей и средней дальности, а также для мобильной системы ПРО ТВД «THAAD» наземного базирования, используемой для заатмосферного перехвата ракет, которая до настоящего времени продемонстрировала 15 успешных перехватов таких ракет из 15 проведенных реальных испытаний.
 
Это будет означать, что в ближайшие годы Соединенные Штаты выйдут на уровень 1686 ракет-перехватчиков стратегического назначения (без учета ЗРК ПВО/ПРО «Пэтриот»), включая:
 
* 152 противоракеты наземного базирования (104 единицы на континентальной части страны и 48 единиц на операционных базах ПРО в Румынии и Польше, то есть по 24 противоракеты в каждом случае);
 
* 910 ракет-перехватчиков на 35 крейсерах и эсминцах ВМС США, оснащенных БИУС «Иджис» (при этом надо учитывать, что общее количество таких кораблей к 2040-2041 году составит от 86 до 94 единиц);
 
* плюс 624 противоракеты системы ПРО ТВД «THAAD» (336 единиц на континентальной территории США и 288 единиц для размещения в ОАЭ, Саудовской Аравии, Южной Кореи и Японии).
 
Таким образом, общее количество указанных ракет-перехватчиков американского производства превысит в 2,4 раза уровень 700 оперативно развернутых российских носителей стратегических ядерных вооружений, остающихся к 5 февраля 2018 года по Договору СНВ-3.
 
Суммарное же количество ракет-перехватчиков системы ПРО, находящихся под непосредственным контролем и управлением США (1062 единиц), превысит 700 оперативно развернутых российских стратегических ядерных носителей в 1,5 раза.
Военный эксперт ЦВПИ пояснил, что указанные данные, при анализе которых была использована официальная информация Конгресса и Министерства обороны США, отражены с учетом минимального развертывания американских ракет-перехватчиков указанных типов.
 
В.П. Козин также отметил, что американские эксперты зачастую «снабжают» определенную категорию российских «аналитиков» значительно заниженными данными о нынешнем состоянии и перспективном развитии ударно-боевых средств американской глобальной системы ПРО, стремясь ввести российскую сторону в заблуждение. При этом такие «аналитики» забывают принимать во внимание реально существующую органическую связь между стратегическими наступательными (СНВ) и стратегическими оборонительными вооружениями (ПРО).
 
Но с точки зрения целесообразности гарантированного сохранения стратегической стабильности и стратегического паритета такая «забывчивость» может иметь весьма негативные последствия, заключил ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ.

Противостояние России и Запада. Российское ТЯО в Белоруссии

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "ОТРажение" на канале ОТР.

Эфир от 27 марта 2023г.

Противостояние: Россия – Запад

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "ОТРажение" на канале ОТР.


«Так вот, я предлагаю: для того чтобы не допустить многочисленных поставок вооружений (а они растут в количественном и качественном измерении) со стороны в основном стран-членов НАТО, в том числе со стороны Франции, Англии, Польши, Соединенных Штатов Америки, тоже объявить нашу операцию «Малый Сатурн» (справка: операция «Малый Сатурн» - декабрь 1942 года; часть стратегической операции «Сатурн» по окружению и уничтожению группировки Паулюса под Сталинградом).

Ее можно назвать, естественно, по-разному, можно не повторять, но смысл ее должен быть один и тот же – уничтожение сателлитов украинских вооруженных сил, которые действуют на территории Украины против нас, и недопущение абсолютно никаких поставок любых видов вооружений, которые, увы, до сих пор поставляются в огромных количествах для Вооруженных сил Украины».


 

Эфир от 25 ноября 2022г.

Пустые угрозы или красные линии: Москва и Вашингтон оценивают итоги переговоров

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе  “Что это значит?” на канале РБК.

Новый миропорядок, восстановление баланса сил или откат в прошлое? Переговоры о гарантиях безопасности в Европе между Россией, США и НАТО дали почву для свежих заявлений. Все стороны диалога смотрят на проблему абсолютно по-разному и в нарастании противоречий и претензий винят исключительно друг друга. При этом как Вашингтон, так и Москва сходятся в одном — возможность конфликта на европейском континенте высока как никогда. Остаётся ли у дипломатов шанс предотвратить открытое столкновение?


В.П. Козин: «Россия вполне может пойти на размещение своих военных потенциалов в Латинской Америке,  но, разумеется, с согласия соответствующих государств … На такой шаг мы уже давно имели право пойти. … Дело в том, что у США есть большие две крупные зоны размещения их наступательных вооружений: их континентальная часть, а также за рубежом, где развернуты их «средства передового базирования». У России же имеется только одна подобная зона – только собственная территория, но нигде нет мест размещения «средств передового базирования» относительно США. Необходимо устранить этот стратегический диспаритет».


Эфир от 14 января 2022г.

Путин предлагает провести саммит государств - постоянных членов СБ ООН

Президент России Владимир Путин предложил провести в 2020 году саммит лидеров РФ, Китая, США, Франции и Великобритании по мировым проблемам.
 
"Забвение прошлого, разобщенность перед лицом угроз могут обернуться страшными последствиями. У нас должно быть мужество не только прямо сказать об этом, но и сделать все, чтобы защитить и отстоять мир", - заявил глава российского государства на международном форуме "Сохраняем память о Холокосте, боремся с антисемитизмом". На его взгляд, "пример могут и должны подать страны-основательницы Организации Объединенных Наций, пять держав, которые несут особую ответственность за сохранение цивилизации". Путин, как передает ТАСС, сообщил об обсуждении такой идеи с некоторыми коллегами и уже последовавшей положительной реакции.
 
Напомню, что выступая 15 января этого года с Посланием Федеральному Собранию, Президент Владимир Путин заявил об убеждении, что назрел серьёзный и прямой разговор об основных принципах стабильного миропорядка и об острейших проблемах, с которыми сталкивается человечество. По его словам, время требует осознания общей ответственности и реальных действий, и соответствующий пример должны подать государства-основатели ООН. Именно пять ядерных держав, отметил глава российского государства, несут особую ответственность за сохранение и устойчивое развитие человечества. Он далее продолжил, что именно они должны «прежде всего начать с мер по устранению предпосылок для глобальной войны, выработать обновлённые подходы к обеспечению стабильности на планете, которые бы в полной мере учитывали политические, экономические, военные аспекты современных международных отношений».
 
Фраза об устранении «предпосылок для глобальной войны» обращает на себя особое внимание.
 
К сожалению, за последние десять лет возможности развязывания ограниченной и даже глобальной войны, например, ядерной, резко возросли. Ядерный Апокалипсис стал ближе, что вызывает большое беспокойство в мире. 114 различных государств мира, а это 59 % от общего количества стран-членов ООН, подписали Договор о запрещении ядерного оружия, в том числе 34 из них ратифицировали его. Вышедший в январе этого года доклад  Международного Комитета Красного Креста об итогах опроса общественного мнения, проведенного в 2019 году в 16 странах, в том числе в четырех ядерных державах (без КНР) , показал, что 64% респондентов выступили за ликвидацию ядерного оружия.
 
Главной причиной расширения возможностей для начала ядерной войны является резкое и беспрецедентное понижение порога применения ядерного оружия ведущей ядерной державой – США.
 
О такой опасности свидетельствуют восемь предпосылок, которые могут привести к глобальной войне, возможно, даже к ядерной.
 
В общем виде их можно свести к трем ключевым составляющим: к военно-политическим и военно-техническим, а также к значительному финансированию обновляемых ракетно-ядерных вооружений в США.
 
Предпосылка первая. Произошло усиление наступательной составляющей в военно-стратегических установках Соединенных Штатов, предусматривающих инициативное применение ядерного оружия. Так, ныне действующая ядерная доктрина президента Трампа, одобренная 2 февраля 2018 года, содержит 14 оснований применения ядерного оружия, восемь из которых носят нарочито расплывчатый характер, что позволяет ядерным силам США задействовать свой арсенал практически под любым предлогом. Пентагон также сохраняет установку на нанесение первого превентивного и упреждающего удара по широкому кругу государств.
 
Предпосылка вторая. Все американские президенты с начала ядерной эры имели и в настоящее время Дональд Трамп располагает единоличным правом применения ядерного оружия в первом ударе. В Конгрессе США уже дважды в прошлом году некоторые законодатели ставили вопрос о лишении нынешнего хозяина Белого дома права применять ядерное оружие исключительно по своему усмотрению в первом ударе без согласия конгрессменов.
 
Предпосылка третья. Она заключается в том, что современная ядерная стратегия США квалифицируется как «безусловное наступательное ядерное сдерживание», имеющее широкий спектр стратегических установок различного содержания. Это «расширенное ядерное сдерживание», то есть раскрытие «ядерного зонтика над 32 государствами-членами НАТО и внеблоковыми союзниками США. Это также их «концепция «эскалация в целях деэскалации», которая ставит задачу снижения напряженности с помощью эскалации применения ядерного оружия. США до сих пор придерживаются зыбкой и трудно контролируемой концепции «запуск по предупреждению», которая предусматривает применение ядерного оружия практически сразу после получения сигнала от средств предупреждения о ракетном нападении о запуске ядерных ракет каким-то государством.
 
Предпосылка четвертая. Это возможность применения ядерных боезарядов малой мощности с мощностью от 5 килотонн и ниже, что примерно в три раза меньше ядерного боезаряда авиабомбы, сброшенной на Хиросиму. Например, в американском ядерном арсенале имеются авиабомбы с боезарядом в 0,3 и в 1,5 килотонны.
 
Предпосылка пятая. В странах НАТО происходит трансформация военных учений, когда учения с задействованием обычных видов вооружений завершаются с условным использованием ядерного оружия. Ядерную стратегию США подкрепляют их соглашения «о разделении ядерной ответственности» или «соглашения о совместных ядерных миссиях», заключенные со странами членами альянса, в том числе с теми, которые вообще не располагают собственным ядерным оружием. Воздушное пространство Европы уже давно освоили тяжелые стратегические бомбардировщики США. Уже 15 лет не прекращается круглосуточная и круглогодичная операция НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» в воздушном пространстве Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии с использованием самолетов «двойного назначения», которые могут нести ядерное оружие. В отдельные государства европейского континента уже стали поступать на вооружение новые американские истребители-бомбардировщики тактической авиации F-35, способные нести перспективные высокоточные корректируемые ядерные авиабомбы В-61-12 с максимальной мощностью боезаряда 50 килотонн.
 
Предпосылка шестая. Возник резкий дисбаланс между стратегическими оборонительными вооружениями и стратегическими наступательными ядерными вооружениями. Происходит размытие функциональных границ между названными видами вооружений из-за появления универсальных пусковых установок для их размещения. Состоялось сращивание ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных вооружений в виде «чикагской триады», созданной на саммите НАТО в мае 2012 года, которая выдвинулась на передовые рубежи к границам России и КНР.
 
Предпосылка седьмая. С 2026 года в США начнется создание новой «триллионной» стратегической ядерной триады. На нее будет израсходовано до 1,7 трлн. долларов. Ни одно государство в мире не может выделить столько денежных средств на качественное переоснащение ядерного потенциала, который просуществует до конца текущего столетия.
 
Предпосылка восьмая. Это возможность возобновления американской стороной ядерных испытаний на полигоне в штате Невада. Такой шаг предусматривается в ядерной доктрине Трампа.
 
К сожалению, все эти предпосылки усиливаются негативным отношением Вашингтона к 13 международным договорам в сфере контроля над вооружениями. Шесть таких договорных актов имеют прямое или косвенное отношение к ограничению ядерного оружия. Выйдя из ДРСМД, США продолжают нарушать Договор СНВ-3.
 
В этой связи представляется важным направить на высшем уровне послания лидерам ядерной «пятерки» с предложением провести обмен мнениями на тему: как предотвратить глобальную войну. Одним из первых кардинальных шагов на этом направлении могла бы стать договоренность о взаимном неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе. Разумеется, впоследствии потребуются меры по ликвидации всех восьми названных предпосылок для ведения глобальной войны.
 
Владимир Козин, член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН
 
 
Источник: Аналитическое Интернет-издание Инфорос
 
Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/45973

РСМД: Война и мир средней и меньшей дальности

Программа “Код доступа” на телеканале “Звезда” с участием ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козина.

Похоже, Дональд Трамп решил увековечить себя как первый президент, намеренно и одним махом завершивший эпоху ядерного разоружения. 20 октября он объявил о намерении США в одностороннем порядке выйти из договора о ракетах средней и меньшей дальности, который был заключен между Штатами и СССР еще в 1987 году.

Договор о РСМД - один из важнейших в современной истории. Он положил конец холодной войне и дал старт политике разоружения. Две сверхдержавы, СССР и США, уничтожили больше двух с половиной тысяч смертоносных ракет, которые угрожали всей Европе и западной части СССР. Но почему мы уничтожили больше вооружений, чем США? И на каком основании американский президент сейчас заявляет, что договор больше не работает? Зачем США собрались снова наращивать «ядерные мускулы»? Неужели Америка расторгает договор о РСМД с единственной целью: развязать себе руки для ядерной войны? Это узнает лишь тот, у кого есть Код Доступа.

Эфир от 15 ноября 2018г.

Программа на сайте телеканала

Разменов не будет. Дырка от бублика на бублик не меняется

В американских военно-промышленных кругах стали проявлять заметное беспокойство в связи с развитием высокоточного гиперзвукового оружия, которое, по их мнению, стало активно разрабатываться в России и КНР.

Проведенные во второй половине прошлого и в начале текущего года в США дебаты на различных дискуссионных площадках, а также вышедшие из под пера экспертов публикации на эту тему показывают, что там всерьез обеспокоились этой проблемой, которая, как считают в Америке, может создать серьезную угрозу безопасности Соединенным Штатам и их союзникам по НАТО.

В ноябре ушедшего года еженедельник «Джейн’с дифенс уикли»  опубликовал подробную алармистскую статью о шести видах новых ударных российских вооружений, о которых президент России Владимир Путин сообщил в своем обращении к Федеральному собранию в марте того же года.

В декабре 2018 года в Счётной палате США прямо заявили, что Соединённые Штаты  не располагают возможностями противостоять гиперзвуковому оружию России и Китая.

Бывший командующий Северным командованием ВС США генерал-майор Говард Томпсон в начале января наступившего года в Интернет-издании «Хилл» рассказал об оружии «четвёртого измерения», которым, по его мнению, уже овладели Россия и Китай. При этом он сослался на исследование Института аэрокосмических исследований Митчелла, в котором было отмечено, что в современных условиях оружие «четвёртого измерения», а именно гиперзвуковое оружие позволяет «уменьшить окно принятия решений» противника и поражать цели на большой скорости в любой точке земного шара.

Говард Томпсон с беспокойством констатировал, что Россия и Китай уже занимаются разработкой подобного вооружения. Он привел в качестве примера недавние испытания российского гиперзвукового комплекса «Авангард», который, как следует из официальных сообщений, в полете превысил число Маха в 27 раз. Это означает, что объект двигался со скоростью свыше 30 тысяч км в час.

Китай, как указал этот американский военный отставник, также проявил себя в попытках достичь подобного уровня высокотехнологичных вооружений. По данным заместителя министра обороны США по исследованиям и разработкам доктора Майка Гриффина, за последний год Пекин провёл в названной области больше испытаний, чем Вашингтон в суммарном виде за последние десять лет.

Помимо признания факта глубокого отставания США от России и КНР в указанной сфере и призыва наверстать упущенное, в Вашингтоне подумывают и о том, каким удобным для него способом можно было бы заставить Москву и Пекин отказаться от достигнутого успеха или, по крайней мере, притормозить дальнейшее развитие разрабатываемых высокоточных гиперзвуковых систем. В частности, применительно к России было вброшено наивное предложение о том, что Соединенные Штаты будут скрупулезно выполнять Договор о ликвидации РСМД, а в обмен на это российская сторона должна, мол, отказаться от принятия на вооружение гиперзвукового комплекса «Авангард».

Слишком поздно.

И слишком не эквивалентно.

Слишком поздно Вашингтону надеяться на то, что Москва теперь откажется от системы, в создании которой американские контрагенты отстали от нее на десятки лет.

Слишком поздно пытаться исправлять ситуацию, в которую Соединенные Штаты попали сами по своей собственной инициативе, когда выходили из Договора по ПРО и приступили к бесконтрольному наращиванию противоракетных вооружений, да еще с размещением их ударных компонентов двойного назначения и информационно-разведывательных комплексов у границ Российской Федерации, а также ее союзников и друзей.

Слишком поздно, когда США приняли решение о проведении глубокой модернизации и радикальному обновлению своих ракетно-ядерных вооружений стратегического и тактического назначения при сохранении стратегии нанесения первого ядерного удара по России и КНР.

Слишком поздно в условиях, когда Соединенные Штаты и их союзники по НАТО безосновательно инициировали наращивание тяжелых видов обычных вооружений и резко увеличили количество военных учений и маневров у российских рубежей.

И слишком не эквивалентно по той причине, что Вашингтон должен просто соблюдать Договор о ликвидации РСМД в полном объеме, безо всяких искусственных увязок и безо всяких не имеющих к нему оговорок, если он еще каким-то образом считает его важной договоренностью в сфере контроля над вооружениями. Не эквивалентно и по тому основанию, что российский гиперзвуковой комплекс «Авангард» никак не подпадает под ограничения этого бессрочного договорного акта.

В этом контексте следует еще раз напомнить и Государственному департаменту, и Министерству обороны США о том, что 11 декабря 2018 года при тестировании эффективности системы их глобальной системы ПРО американские военно-морские силы успешно перехватили ракету-мишень «средней дальности», запрещенную Договором о ликвидации РСМД. Это испытание стало 96-ым по счету нарушением договора американской стороной за последние 17 лет. В 2019 году Пентагон намерен нарушить этот договор еще 12 раз. Не слишком ли много нарушений только одного договора в условиях, когда Россия не нарушила его ни разу?

Названный показатель говорит о том, что США уже давно фактически вышли из этого договорного акта. Но пытаются беспардонно обвинить в его «несоблюдении» другую сторону, вводя в заблуждение все мировое сообщество.

Вышли они из него и политически, когда в декабре прошлого года однозначно выступили на Генеральной Ассамблее ООН против принятия проекта резолюции в поддержку Договора о ликвидации РСМД.

Поэтому никаких разменов с российской стороны, как это предложено Вашингтоном,  никогда не будет.

Дырка от бублика на бублик не меняется.

Автор: В.П. Козин

Разрушение ДРСМД: «зеркальный» ответ Москвы Вашингтону

Ответственность за его денонсацию лежит не только на США, но и на НАТО в целом

Первого февраля США и НАТО сделали очередной, но, видимо, еще не последний «контрольный выстрел» по бессрочному Договору о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД). Вашингтон в очередной раз обвинил Россию в его несоблюдении, а также вновь в ультимативной форме потребовал ликвидировать российскую КРНБ 9М729, которая никак не подпадает под его ограничения. Словно какому-то своему подчиненному США предписали уничтожить ее в обмен на выполнение ими этого договора, из которого они фактически уже давно вышли.

По сути дела, американская сторона решила повторить опыт ведения переговоров с Советским Союзом 80-х годов, когда тот, не имея никаких оснований, пошел на добровольное уничтожение своей перспективной оперативно-тактической ракеты «Ока» («СС-23» по классификации НАТО), которая вообще не подпадала под ограничительные положения ДРСМД. То есть не относилась к ракетам ни средней, ни меньшей дальности.

За последние пять лет Вашингтон уже более трех десятков раз стремился оказать массированное международное давление на Москву, пытаясь поставить ее в положение постоянно оправдывающегося «ответчика», одновременно присвоив себе право заниматься активными прокурорско-обвинительными «разоблачениями» России в довольно простом вопросе: кто же на самом деле нарушает ДРСМД? 

Из этих многочисленных контактов и консультаций также было видно, что долгосрочная генеральная стратегия Соединенных Штатов в подходе к названному договору применительно к России выстраивалась и до сих пор выстраивается на двух ключевых принципах.

Во-первых, американские представители с самого начала избрали курс постепенного, в буквальном смысле по миллиметру, последовательного вытягивания уступок с российской стороны, которые, по мнению нынешнего руководства США, должны были бы закончиться единственным радикальным актом: Москва должна уничтожить перспективную ракетную систему 9М729, на которую вообще не распространяются положения договора 1987 года. При этом Вашингтон никогда не исходил из того, что это должно произойти в обмен на ликвидацию какой-то однотипной американской ракетной установки, а просто предлагал столь неэквивалентный размен за элементарное выполнение собственных обязательств по этому договору, что он должен был делать автоматически.

На будущее возникает вопрос: а нельзя ли изменить движение переговорного процесса в иную сторону, сделав его активно-наступательным применительно к американским визави, применив их же метод ведения переговоров? Например, предложить им следующий подход.

Заявить американской стороне, что Москва останется в рамках ДРСМД, если Пентагон прекратит использовать запрещенные этим договором баллистические и крылатые ракеты-мишени средней и меньшей дальности в качестве объектов перехвата при испытаниях американских ракет-перехватчиков.

Такое заявление можно было бы усилить обещанием, что Россия будет в полном объеме соблюдать ДРСМД, если Пентагон навсегда закроет свою действующую операционную противоракетную базу в Румынии, которая уже стоит на боевом дежурстве уже почти три года, а также прекратит строительство аналогичной американской военной структуры в Польше на том основании, что в из пусковые установки можно без особых проблем загружать наступательные средства – крылатые ракеты класса «Томагавк».

Американским контрагентам вполне можно предъявить и требование отказаться от разработки, производства, испытаний и развертывания в Европе и АТР новых мобильно-грунтовых КРНБ в ядерном и неядерном оснащении средней дальности типа «GLCM-X», то есть запрещенной договором 1987 года, а также настаивать на ликвидации всех пусковых установок и иного вспомогательного оборудования, имеющего отношение к ним.

Без уравнивания подобных требований обеих сторон Вашингтон будет использовать проблему ДРСМД с целью приобретения для себя односторонних военно-стратегических преимуществ и превращения ее в перманентный раздражитель в российско-американских отношениях. Эта проблема будет также использоваться американскими лидерами как ширма для прикрытия собственных планов и программ по созданию новых систем ракетных вооружений, явно не вписывающихся в ограничительные договорные параметры 1987 года.

Во-вторых, нельзя не замечать, что стратегическая линия Вашингтона, направленная на одностороннее разрушение этого договора, является продолжением его негативного отношения к еще одиннадцати двусторонним и многосторонним договорным актам в области контроля над вооружениями, которые были им либо в одностороннем порядке денонсированы, либо не ратифицированы, либо вообще проигнорированы без попыток практического обсуждения на международных переговорных площадках.

Очевидно, что в этой связи необходимо приложить соответствующие информационно-разъяснительные усилия, чтобы довести до мирового сообщества как все обозначенные выше обстоятельства, так и весьма внушительный показатель нарушения американской стороной именно ДРМСД. А это 96 его нарушений за последние 18 лет, допущенных как раз при использовании ракет средней и меньшей дальности в качестве ракет-мишеней при тестировании эффективности американской глобальной инфраструктуры перехвата ракет. Данные о таких испытаниях регулярно сообщает Управление по ПРО (УПРО) Пентагона на своем интернет-сайте. За начальную точку подсчета нарушений взят 2001 год, когда США объявили об одностороннем выходе из Договора по ПРО. Если же начать подсчитывать эти нарушения раньше, например с 1999 года, то их уже будет 108. И эта цифра вновь официально признана Пентагоном. В текущем году начальник УПРО обещал в конгрессе произвести еще 12 таких испытаний, то есть совершить еще дюжину дополнительных нарушений ДРСМД.

Вызывает удивление уже неоднократно повторенное предложение Дональда Трампа вместо уничтожаемого им ДРСМД заключить некий новый, более широкий по числу участников договор о запрещении ракет средней и меньшей дальности. Но согласятся ли его участниками стать Китай, Индия, Пакистан, Великобритания, Франция, Израиль и Северная Корея? И кто же поверит американской стороне, что, допустим, однажды заключив такой многосторонний договорный акт, она не разорвет его вновь под фальшивым предлогом, как она поступила с Договором по ПРО или с Венским соглашением по иранской ядерной программе и как она сейчас поступает с ДРСМД?

Вообще, что касается разработки какого-то иного соглашения с США по данной проблематике, то Россия не будет инициировать его разработку. Как заявил официальный представитель президента России Дмитрий Песков, Москва не намерена первой предпринимать каких-либо действий относительно заключения нового варианта ДРСМД. Именно таким образом он прокомментировал заявление Дональда Трампа о возможности заключения нового соглашения по этой проблеме, лишь уточнив, что российская сторона рассмотрит американские инициативы, если таковые появятся.

Длительная практика безуспешных контактов с американскими переговорщиками по данной проблематике показала, что Вашингтон будет постоянно недоволен российскими разъяснениями и натурными демонстрациями российских ракетных систем, то есть даже той беспрецедентной открытостью российской стороны, которая была продемонстрирована на совместном брифинге представителей Министерства обороны и МИД России 23 января этого года.

Необходимо особо подчеркнуть, что проведенный показ КРНБ 9М728 и 9М729 в военно-патриотическом парке «Патриот» под Кубинкой с подробным разъяснением их конструктивных особенностей полностью выходит за рамки инспекционной деятельности, предусмотренной ДРСМД, которая, кстати сказать, была завершена обеими сторонами еще в мае 2001 года. Но США до сих пор не показали российской стороне на основе взаимности свой объект ПРО, например, на авиабазе Девеселу в Румынии и не продемонстрировали ни одну ракету-мишень средней и меньшей дальности, используемые при реальной проверке своей противоракетной системы. Да и вряд ли покажут.

В складывающейся ситуации следовало бы довести до Вашингтона простую и, вероятно, понятную ему истину: Россия никогда не будет уничтожать свои модернизированные КРНБ, не подпадающие под терминологические определения ДРСМД, ни другие перспективные высокоточные виды вооружений, которые не покрываются какими-то иными договорными обязательствами, только потому, что именно так хочется в Белом доме и на Капитолийском холме. Представляется, что подобная более четко и твердо выраженная российская точка зрения будет понятна нынешнему американскому президенту, который уже публично заявил, что американская глобальная противоракетная система никогда и ни при каких обстоятельствах не будет предметом переговоров или сокращений с какими-то зарубежными государствами, которые не относятся к союзникам и партнерам Соединенных Штатов.

Естественно, что вся вина за возможные последствия инициативного разрыва договоренности 1987 года ляжет на нынешнее военно-политическое руководство Соединенных Штатов. Но и не только на него. Она ляжет и на государства-члены Североатлантического союза, которые на основе необоснованной и сомнительной «трансатлантической солидарности» поддержали такой шаг, намеренно воскрешая трагическое «двойное решение» НАТО, принятое почти 40 лет назад. По этой причине они также берут на себя огромную морально-политическую и военную ответственность за это и также будут нести такое же бремя вины в будущем.

Разумеется, что после денонсации Вашингтоном столь важной договоренности по РСМД через шесть месяцев российская сторона будет также считать себя свободной от взятых по этому договору обязательств и даст на заявленный шаг американской стороны «зеркальный» ответ.

Об этом было четко заявлено президентом России Владимиром Путиным на встрече с руководителями министерств обороны и иностранных дел России 2 февраля в Кремле. Ответ, как и обещалось ранее, стал одновременно незамедлительным.

Глава российского государства заявил, что Москва, также как и Вашингтон, приостанавливает свое участие в этом договоре, будет заниматься соответствующими НИОКР, переоборудует крылатые ракеты «Калибр» морского базирования в средства наземного базирования, продолжит работы по передаче в Вооруженные силы страны перспективных ультрасовременных видов вооружений, о которых было ранее объявлено.

Президент Владимир Путин дал указание руководству военного и дипломатического ведомств впредь не инициировать никаких переговоров по проблематике контроля над вооружениями с контрагентами России, пока те не созреют для того, чтобы вести с Москвой равноправный и содержательный диалог по этой тематике, которая является важной для обеих сторон и для мирового сообщества в целом. Особо было отмечено, что российская сторона оставляет открытыми двери для новых переговоров.

Существенным гибким элементом ответного российского шага стало заявление о том, что Россия не будет размещать национальное оружие средней и меньшей дальности ни в Европе, ни в других регионах мира до тех пор, пока подобное оружие американского производства не начнет развертываться в соответствующих регионах мира.

Одновременно Владимир Путин подчеркнул, что Российская Федерация не должна и не будет втягиваться в затратную гонку вооружений. 

В суммарном виде обнародованный ответ российского военно-политического руководства от второго февраля стал естественной, адекватной, сбалансированной и единственно правильной реакцией, которую в полном объеме инициировала американская сторона.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: InfoRos

Разрушив ДРСМД, США продолжают нарушать и ДНЯО

                   

Не только путем сохранения в Европе ранее завезенных ядерных арсеналов, но и посредством проведения на этом континенте «ядерных учений»

Многие СМИ со ссылкой на популярное австрийское издание «Кроне» сообщили на днях, что военно-воздушные силы ФРГ приняли участие вместе с другими союзниками по НАТО в секретных военно-воздушных учениях, которые предполагают реализацию сценария развязывания ядерной войны в Европе.

Об этом также сообщило 18 октября и германское информационное агентство ДПА со ссылкой на собственные источники.  По его информации, в ходе этих учений, имеющих кодовое обозначение «Steadfast Noon», были использованы истребители-бомбардировщики «двойного назначения», то есть способные нести на борту как обычное, так и ядерное оружие.

При этом германские ВВС задействовали в них свои истребители «Торнадо» 33-ей авиаэскадрильи, размещенные на военной базе близ населенного пункта Бюхель, федеральная земля Рейнланд-Пфальц, что на юго-западе ФРГ, где до сих пор хранятся американские авиабомбы семейства «B-61» с ядерными боезарядами.

Особенностью развернутых авиабомб серии «В-61» на территории четырех стран европейского континента (Бельгии, Италия, Нидерландов и ФРГ), а также в азиатской части Турции является то, что Соединенные Штаты и Североатлантический союз регулярно проводят учения с имитаций доставки таких учебных авиабомб к условным объектам «вероятного противника». В таких учениях принимают участие самолеты пяти стран-членов трансатлантического союза, где размещено американское тактическое ядерное оружие. Но в названные учения приглашаются и неядерные государства блока, которые вообще не имеют на своей территории американских ядерных боезарядов. В частности, в упомянутых учениях уже участвовали военные летчики из Венгрии, Греции, Дании и Норвегии.

Подобная «трансатлантическая ядерная солидарность» демонстрируется в рамках программы «Поддержка ядерных операций с помощью обычных тактических полетов ВВС» («Support of Nuclear Operations with Conventional Air Tactics» или сокращенно: «SNOWCAT»), а также в ходе учений ВВС НАТО серии «Steadfast Noon».  Эти учения проводятся на основе секретных соглашений США с странами-участниками «ядерного пула» НАТО. Такие договоренности именуются как «соглашения о разделении ядерной ответственности» или как «соглашения о совместных ядерных миссиях» (в английском оригинале «nuclear sharing agreements»).

Примечательно, что западные ядерные державы, входящие в Североатлантический союз, намерены расширить степень участия неядерных стран, являющихся его участницами, в решении самых разнообразных задач, связанных с использованием ядерного оружия в различных районах земного шара, в особенности в Европе и Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе.

С этой целью еще в Стратегической концепции НАТО, одобренной на его саммите в Лиссабоне в ноябре 2010 года, было записано обязательство альянса по обеспечению наиболее широкого участия союзников в коллективном планировании ядерных задач, размещении американских ядерных сил в мирное время, а также в командно-управленческих и консультационных механизмах, связанных с дислокацией и возможным применением ядерного оружия различного назначения. Формулировка об усилении ядерных средств «передового базирования» НАТО в Европе отражена и в документах его саммита, состоявшегося в июле 2018 года в Брюсселе.

Примечательно, что некоторые авиабомбы США типа «В-61» с ядерной начинкой квалифицируются в документах Пентагона и Государственного департамента как «стратегические». Такую же формулировку, в частности, имеет и справочный материал о продлении срока службы американского ТЯО, распространенный Государственным департаментом и Национальным управлением по ядерной безопасности США 3 января 2013 года, который однозначно квалифицируют именно три авиабомбы типа «В-61» как «стратегические» (см. таблицу).

Типы авиабомб в ядерном арсенале США

Источник: Kristensen H. B61 LEP: Increasing NATO Nuclear Capability and Precision Low-Yield Strikes. FAS. 2011. June 15. P.3 (примечание «а»: по более обновленным данным даже больше – свыше 800 единиц).

 

Два из пяти видов существующих боезарядов таких авиабомб, а именно «В-61-7» и «В-61-11», а также новая перспективная высокоточная корректируемая авиабомба «В-61-12» «имеют стратегическое значение», поскольку могут быть доставлены к целям не только самолетами тактической авиации средней дальности, но и американскими тяжелыми стратегическими бомбардировщиками, на каждом из которых можно максимально разместить до 16 таких авиабомб.

Под новую авиабомбу «В-61-12» в США разработан, создан и используется истребитель-бомбардировщик «F-35А», способный нести по две такие авиабомбы. Его пожелали закупить многие европейские и азиатские страны, причем, зачастую именно самолет такой серии, который предназначен для доставки ядерного оружия – с буквенным уточнением «F-35А».

Итак, в Европе намечается двойное размещение ядерного оружия США. Это ядерные средства воздушного базирования, которые складированы там уже почти 70 лет (!). Это и новые ракетно-ядерные средства наземного базирования средней дальности, которые могут появиться в результате односторонней денонсации Вашингтоном ДРСМД. Плюс существенный довесок: продолжается практика "ядерных учений" НАТО.

При доведении позиции Российской Федерации по ядерной проблематике после денонсации ДРСМД можно было бы шире использовать статью первую ДНЯО, которая ставит заслон на пути размещения на территории неядерных государств ядерного оружия ядерных государств. Важно применять и статью вторую этого договора, которая запрещает развертывание ядерного оружия ядерных государств на территории неядерных стран.

Если страны-члены НАТО окончательно откажутся от российского моратория на размещение новых ядерных ракет средней дальности в Европе и Азии, ранее запрещенных ДРСМД (пока они эту идею просто игнорируют), то применение названных двух статей ДНЯО к США и их союзникам по альянсу, которые либо уже имеют на своей земле американское тактическое ядерное оружие, либо могут дать согласие на дополнительное размещение новых американских ядерных ракет средней дальности на их территории, остается важным сдерживающим фактором.

Очевидно, что Российская Федерация должна использовать такой фактор более активно в своей информационно-разъяснительной работе – как на официальном, так и на экспертном уровнях.

Автор: Владимир Козин

Ракета «Сармат» и стратегическая стабильность

 

Резкое обострение отношений России с Западом влияет самым негативным образом на глобальную стратегическую стабильность. Однако, появление на вооружении России нового вида межконтинентальных ракет «Сармат» может оказать «успокоительное действие» на не в меру воинственных представителей стран НАТО. О текущее ситуации в этой области и о некоторых попытках экскалировать процесс в программе «Что происходит?» журнала «Международная жизнь» рассказывает член-корреспондент Академии военных наук Владимир Козин.

Программу ведет обозреватель журнала Сергей Филатов.

Эфир от 16 мая 2022г.

Источник: Журнал МИД России «Международная жизнь»

 

Ракетная история: юбилейные размышления

Исполняется 30 лет со дня подписания в декабре 1987 года советско-американского "Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности" (РСМД). О предыстории этого документа, о том, как он реализовывался за эти три десятилетия, и об уроках сотрудничества нашей страны с американцами в области контроля над вооружениями в студии журнала «Международная жизнь» размышляет профессор Академии военных наук, ведущий эксперт МГИМО (У) Владимир Петрович Козин.

Программу ведет обозреватель журнала Сергей Филатов.

 

Ракетно-ядерный «трезубец» США получит финансовое подкрепление

Выделяемые средства пойдут не только на модернизацию действующей стратегической ядерной триады, но и на создание качественно новой

Как указывается в вышедшем в январе этого года докладе Бюджетного управления американского Конгресса, Соединенные Штаты потратят в ближайшее десятилетие, то есть в 2019-2028 годы, в общей сложности 494 млрд. долларов на содержание и модернизацию существующей стратегической ядерной триады, что на 94 млрд. больше расходов на аналогичные цели, отраженных в докладе этой структуры менее чем два года назад. Тогда предполагалось выложить на решение схожей военно-технической задачи до 400 млрд. долларов за примерно равный по продолжительности период времени (2017-2026 гг.). Как и в предыдущем случае, указанные средства получат Пентагон и Министерство энергетики, которое отвечает за испытания, производство и безопасность хранения ядерных боезарядов в стране.

В соответствии с обновленным докладом Бюджетного управления Конгресса 2019 года довольно значительную часть суммы, а именно около 234 млрд. долларов или 43 процента, предлагается вложить в совершенствование средств доставки стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений.

Из этой суммы предполагается направить на содержание морского компонента стратегической ядерной триады в виде ПЛАРБ (107 млрд.), наземных МБР (61 млрд.) и тяжелых бомбардировщиков стратегического назначения (49 млрд.), а также свыше 16 млрд. долларов на остальные программы.

Вашингтон рассчитывает израсходовать около 106 млрд. долларов на НИОКР, связанные с созданием новых типов ядерного оружия и ядерных боезарядов различного назначения, в том числе ядерных боезарядов малой мощности типа «W 76-2» для БРПЛ, и с производством новой КРМБ с ядерным боезарядом.

77 млрд. долларов должны пойти на управление ядерным потенциалом и усовершенствование системы предупреждения о ракетном нападении.

Еще 62 млрд. долларов обозначены как сумма, определяемая с учетом будущей инфляции, в качестве резервной.

Указанные расходы свидетельствуют о том, что нынешнее американское военно-политическое руководство намерено продолжать курс, разработанный предыдущими администрациями и направленный не только на модернизацию существующей стратегической ядерной триады, но и на создание принципиально нового ракетно-ядерного «трезубца», в который войдут все три названные выше компонента.

Расходы на создание качественно новой стратегической ядерной триады значительно превысят сумму, выделяемую на модернизацию существующих стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений США. В абсолютном выражении она должна возрасти до 1,2 трлн. долларов в стабильных ценах 2018 года и даже до 1,7 трлн. долларов с учетом инфляции, то есть до 2038 года.

К 2026 году должен появиться новый стратегический тяжелый бомбардировщик «В-21» («Рейдер»), который будет обладать возможностями прорывать систему ПВО потенциальных противников, проникать на большую глубину в их воздушное пространство, а также наносить удары по его жизненно важным объектам и целям с помощью новых КРВБ. Намечено создать 100 таких машин. Будут разработаны новые МБР «Минитмен-4» (до 400 ракет), первая из которых будет принята на вооружение в 2029 году. Появятся 12 новых ПЛАРБ «Колумбия» проекта «SSBN-826», каждая из которых будет иметь на борту по 16 БРПЛ. Первая из ракетных субмарин этого класса должна выйти на боевое патрулирование в Мировой океан в 2031 году.

Ориентировочные сроки службы названных трех новых видов носителей СНВ США определены до 2075-2080 годов.

Кроме этого, предполагается создать новую перспективную крылатую ракету воздушного базирования в ядерном снаряжении «LRSO» («Long Range Standoff Cruise Missile»). Разрабатываемые крылатые ракеты могут устанавливаться на существующие тяжелые бомбардировщики «В-52Н» и «В-2А», а также на новый бомбардировщик «В-21». Ожидаемый период окончательного развертывания новой КРВБ – 2026-2030 годы.

Поскольку общее количество ракет типа «LRSO» должно составить 1.000-1.100 единиц, то вполне очевидно, что они должны учитываться в балансе стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений США как реально существующие, хотя подобной практики не было ранее, поскольку один тяжелый стратегический бомбардировщик пока засчитывается как одна единица независимо от количества ядерных боезарядов, установленных на авиабомбы или крылатые ракеты, которые он может нести на борту.

Такая перекройка традиционной стратегической наступательной ядерной триады позволит Соединенным Штатам к середине нынешнего века иметь 692 принципиально новых носителей стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений – без учета крылатых ракет воздушного базирования повышенной дальности «LRSO», оснащенных ядерными боезарядами.

Американские законодатели также решили выделить 15 млрд. долларов надальнейшееразвитие тактического ядерного оружия, которое находится как на континентальной части Соединенных Штатов, так и за ее пределами, в частности в четырех государствах Западной Европы (Бельгии, Италии, Нидерландах и ФРГ), а также на азиатской части Турции. Для сравнения надо указать, что доклад Бюджетного управления Конгресса 2017 года предусматривал выделить на эти цели 9 млрд. долларов.

Корпорации военно-промышленного комплекса США давно и активно развивают соответствующий потенциал для производства новых ракетных вооружений.

Выйдя из ДРСМД в одностороннем порядке в текущем году, Соединенные Штаты приступят к производству новой мобильно-грунтовой крылатой ракеты наземного базирования (КРНБ) средней дальности с ядерным боезарядом, которую они намерены разместить в Европе, как это произошло в результате «двойного решения» НАТО, принятого в декабре 1979 года. Тогда в соответствии с этим решением в некоторых западноевропейских странах появились американские ядерные баллистические ракеты «Першинг» и КРНБ «Томагавк», которые, по сути, породили «второй Карибский кризис» в Старом Свете в конце 70-80-ых годов.

В США возрастет производство ракет различных классов, в том числе КРНБ средней и меньшей дальности, которые запрещены ДРСМД. С июня 2017 года на заводе корпорации «Рейтеон» в Тусоне (штат Аризона) проводятся масштабные мероприятия по развитию его материально-технической базы. В результате его производственные мощности увеличились на 44 процента (с 55 до 79 тысяч кв. м). Этот завод является крупнейшим многопрофильным предприятием ракетно-космической отрасли и способен выпускать практически все типы ракетного оружия.

Произойдет резкая модернизация американского тактического ядерного оружия в Европе. Там появится новая корректируемая высокоточная авиабомба «В-61-12», общее количество которой может выйти на уровень до 900 единиц. Все необходимые инженерно-технические работы по этой авиабомбе уже завершены. Полностью и досрочно испытана система ее специально разработанного хвостового оперения, которое позволит более точно наводить ее на цель. Прежние варианты авиабомб серии «В-61» предполагалось сбрасывать с помощью парашюта.

По сравнению с 2019 годом расходы на все обозначенные программы возрастут к 2028 году на 60 процентов.

Такие суммарные расходы полностью вписываются в планы нынешней республиканской администрации.

После вступления в должность президент Дональд Трамп сформулировал свою генеральную линию относительно национальных ядерных потенциалов в лапидарном виде следующим образом: продолжать модернизацию как стратегических, так и тактических ядерных вооружений. Он обещал продолжить программы своих предшественников по переоснащению всех трех компонентов стратегической ядерной триады страны. Нет сомнений в том, что на посту президента и верховного главнокомандующего страны Дональд Трамп будет выполнять все намеченные планы по качественной «перекройке» классической стратегической ядерной триады.

Обозначенные выше огромные расходы США на развитие ракетно-ядерных вооружений на ближайшую и более отдаленную перспективу потребуют более осторожного отношения России к проблеме будущих ограничений или сокращений российских однотипных и иных вооружений наступательного и оборонительного характера с американской стороной.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: InfoRos

 

Реалистичны ли идеи главы МИД ФРГ о «новом режиме» контроля над вооружениями?

>>Читать статью на английском<<

Министр иностранных дел Германии Хайко Маас, являющийся членом Социал-демократической партии Германии, опубликовал в журнале «Шпигель» статью, в которой предложил пересмотреть режим контроля над вооружениями ради сохранения мира в Европе. При этом он призвал учитывать появление новых технологий в создании оружия и стирание граней между ядерными и обычными видами вооружений, а также подверг критике размещение «российских ракет» в Калининградской области, хотя и не привел никаких доказательств в поддержку своего утверждения, а также признал, что их развертывание не является нарушением российской стороной ДРСМД 1987 года.

Глава германского внешнеполитического ведомства решительно высказался за его сохранение, несмотря на недавнее публичное заявление американского президента о готовности выйти из него. Отказ от ДРСМД ликвидировал бы одно из самых больших достижений в области разоружения, считает Хайко Маас. Поэтому, в отличие от Соединенных Штатов, Германия вместе со своими европейскими союзниками будет выступать за его сохранение, подчеркнул министр.

Ключевым разделом интервью Хайко Мааса стало его предложение об укреплении международной безопасности, состоящее из четырех пунктов.

Он предложил вернуться к практике обмена данными между США, Европой и Россией по вооружениям и механизму контроля над вооружениями; установить всеобъемлющий режим транспарентности для баллистических и крылатых ракет; включить КНР с целью добиться большей прозрачности в вопросах контроля над вооружениями, а также рассмотреть вопросы введения ограничений на высокоскоростные ударные системы вооружений и боевые роботы, которые могут быть использованы в боевых действиях.

Инициатива германского министра иностранных дел свидетельствует о том, что в Европе растет недовольство несбалансированным курсом Соединенных Штатов в военной области, который вновь может привести к опасному ракетно-ядерному противостоянию на европейском континенте как это было в 80-е годы прошлого столетия в результате «двойного решения» НАТО, принятого в декабре 1979 года.

Что касается первого пункта предложений Хайко Мааса, то к нему надо напомнить о 15 нерешенных проблемах в сфере контроля над вооружениями, которые «зависли» как раз по вине США и других государств, входящих в Североатлантический союз. А в списке таких проблем значатся и сохраняющиеся американские тактические ядерные вооружения на европейском континенте, и многочисленные нарушения Вашингтоном ДРСМД с использованием учебных ракет средней и меньшей дальности при проверке эффективности ракет-перехватчиков системы ПРО, и развертывание Пентагоном наземных и морских компонентов глобальной инфраструктуры противоракетного «щита» на территории Европы и в морских пространствах вокруг нее, а также наращивание трансатлантическим союзом значительных сил общего назначения и потенциала объединенных оперативных группировок быстрого развертывания, и проведение крупных военных учений наступательного характера на территории многих европейских государств.

Сюда же следует добавить факт негативного отношения Соединенных Штатов к двусторонним с Россией и многосторонним договорам в области контроля над вооружениями. Среди них, в частности, значатся: Договор по ПРО (их односторонний выход); ДОВСЕ и ДВЗЯИ (их отказ от ратификации); Договор СНВ-3, ДРСМД и Договор по открытому небу (их нарушения); проекты международного Договора о европейской безопасности и Договора о предотвращении размещения оружия в космосе (их отказ обсуждать названные проекты по существу) и некоторые другие договорные акты. Следует также напомнить, что с отказом США от ДРСМД вообще может зашататься и рухнуть созданная с большим трудом и не в одночасье вся система договоров и соглашений в области сдерживания гонки вооружений. Если германский министр проявляет заботу об укреплении европейской безопасности, то почему в его предложениях нет ни слова о Договоре о европейской безопасности, текст которого уже почти десять лет лежит на столах руководителей стран НАТО без рассмотрения, в том числе и в ФРГ? Если он не устраивает, то почему бы участникам этого военного союза не предложить нечто лучшее? Но все они молчат. Берлин тоже.

В этой связи неясно, о каком «новом» режиме контроля над вооружениями говорит шеф германской дипломатии, если не решено столько вопросов нынешней большой повестки дня в сфере контроля над вооружениями.

Второй пункт схемы Хайко Мааса о введении контроля за баллистическими и крылатыми ракетами не может быть выполнен без специально разработанного международного договорного механизма, поскольку такие системы вооружений потенциально могут производить в общей сложности 32 государства мира. А удастся ли уговорить всех из них, значительная часть которых входит в трансатлантический военный блок, пойти на такой шаг? Министр не дает ответа.

Что касается возможного расширения контроля над выполнением ДРСМД, то проведенные в связи с ним многосторонние взаимные инспекции завершились еще в 2001 году. Но о каких новых инспекциях в «привязке к ДРСМД или вне его» может идти речь, если по состоянию на 26 октября этого года Соединенные Штаты уже нарушили его 95 раз при тестировании стратегической системы ПРО с реальным, а не компьютерным перехватом учебных ракет средней и меньшей дальности и намерены нарушать его впредь? Девяносто пятое нарушение, о котором идет речь, проявилось при перехвате ракеты средней дальности в районе Тихого океана средствами ПРО ВМС США. Как быть с ядерными крылатыми ракетами морского и воздушного базирования, которые по инициативе Вашингтона вообще не охвачены существующими военно-политическими ограничительными режимами? В предложениях Хайко Мааса по этому поводу нет никаких разъяснений.

Упоминание германским министром иностранных дел в третьем пункте его материала только КНР представляется односторонне выборочным. Пекин никогда не являлся участником договоренностей об ограничении или сокращении ядерных вооружений. С таким же успехом можно поставить вопрос о необходимости обеспечения прозрачности существующих ракетно-ядерных систем Великобритании, Франции и Израиля, которые располагают ядерными средствами, в том числе первые два государства — стратегическими ядерным оружием.

В этот же «контрольный список» следовало бы занести и ФРГ, на территории которой уже многие десятилетия размещаются американские ядерные авиабомбы, способные выполнять как тактические, так и стратегические задачи, а также еще четыре государства НАТО, давшие согласие на их хранение на своей территории (Бельгия, Италия, Нидерланды и Турция). Почему бы не поставить вопрос и о полном прекращении провокационной операции ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», ведущейся в небе Латвии, Литвы и Эстонии круглосуточно и круглогодично по сей день с 2004 года, в которой задействованы самолеты «двойного назначения» всех трех ядерных держав Запада, а также ударная истребительно-бомбардировочная авиация германского «люфтваффе»?

Четвертый пункт предложений руководителя германского внешнеполитического ведомства о гиперзвуковых системах вооружений, вероятно, может быть рассмотрен только при наличии общемирового консенсуса, повышения степени взаимного доверия и уважения между государствами, а также после отказа ведущих трех ядерных держав НАТО от наступательных ядерных стратегий, которые до сих пор основываются на постулате «безусловного наступательного ядерного сдерживания» и ключевой установке нанесения первого «превентивного и упреждающего» ядерного удара по большому кругу государств.

Таким образом, выдвинутые главой германской дипломатии четыре идеи могут представлять интерес лишь в определенном контексте и при условии, что они проникнуты искренним и реальным желанием укрепить безопасность на европейском континенте не с помощью наращивания избыточных вооружений и масштабной военной деятельности в зоне «передового базирования». Подобные инициативы могут привлечь к себе внимание, если они не приведут к ломке договорно-правовой базы в области сокращения избыточных вооружений, а будут реализовываться на принципе «строить деструктивную безопасность не против друг друга, а надежную взаимную безопасность друг с другом».

К сожалению, представленный четырехзвенный план Хайко Мааса по усилению контроля над вооружениями представляется слабо проработанным и неадекватно учитывающим реальное положение вещей в названной сфере. Его предложения ставят на одну доску диаметрально противоположную военно-политическую линию Соединенных Штатов и Российской Федерации на международной арене, а также являются несбалансированными относительно КНР. Отдельные положения его инициативы представляют собой лишь благие пожелания, оторванные от фактического развития процесса контроля над вооружениями, который в настоящее время сведен к нулю именно по инициативе Вашингтона и его ближайших союзников по НАТО, в том числе и отчасти с помощью ФРГ.

Автор: В.П.Козин

Референдум начнется в Донбассе, Херсонской и Запорожской областях 23 сентября

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в эфире телеканала Москва 24.

В Донбассе и на территориях Херсонской и Запорожской областей начнется референдум о присоединении к России. Голосование завершится 27 сентября.

Местные власти заявили, что только так можно обеспечить безопасность людей, живущих под обстрелами.

 

Решение, тормозящее процесс контроля над вооружениями

10 мая Комитет по вооруженным силам Палаты представителей американского Конгресса подготовил и принял специальную поправку к законопроекту о военных расходах в 2019 финансовом году, которая разрешает президенту Соединенных Штатов выйти из бессрочного двустороннего Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД) 1987 года в том случае, если Белый дом подтвердит его «несоблюдение» Россией.

Это уже не первая попытка американских законодателей оказать политическое давление на Москву в том плане, чтобы она «соблюдала» названный договорный акт, хотя она его никогда не нарушала со времени его подписания более тридцати лет тому назад. Подобные попытки со стороны Вашингтона наблюдаются уже много лет. Но до сих пор — бездоказательно с его стороны.

Как видно, дело кроется не в «нарушениях» этого договора российской стороной. А в чем?

Члены Палаты представителей и представители Пентагона впервые публично признали, что они хотели бы развязать руки своему военно-политическому руководству в создании новой мобильно-грунтовой крылатой ракеты средней дальности наземного базирования (КРНБ) с ядерным боезарядом, запрещенной Договором о ликвидации РСМД, не только в связи с его «несоблюдением» российской стороной, но и с целью «компенсации растущего ядерного потенциала» Китайской Народной Республики и «сдерживания новых ядерных угроз», якобы, исходящих из Пекина.

Подкрепляя свои аргументы применительно к КНР, американские законодатели указывают, что она не является участницей договора 1987 года (что полностью соответствует действительности), и по этой причине, мол, создает ядерные ракеты средней и меньшей дальности безо всяких ограничений, в то время как Соединенные Штаты лишены такой возможности.

В данном контексте немаловажно принять во внимание, что в прошлом году американский Конгресс уже выделил средства на проведение НИОКР с целью создания упомянутой КРНБ.

Для понимания мотивов американской стороны, считающей, что ДРСМД связывает ее руки, необходимо также учесть, что за последние семнадцать лет Вашингтон 93 раза нарушил эту важную договоренность, которая предусмотрела полное и необратимое уничтожение в глобальном масштабе советских и американских ядерных баллистических и крылатых ракет наземного базирования с общей дальностью стрельбы от 1000 до 5500 км. Подобные нарушения со стороны Вашингтона имели место при проведении испытаний эффективности системы ПРО США, во время которых в качестве перехватываемых ракет-мишеней как раз и были использованы запрещенные ракеты средней и меньшей дальности.

То есть, юридически не выходя из ДРСМД, Вашингтон уже давно фактически вышел из него. Поскольку он намерен продолжать подобные противоракетные испытания, то это означает, что он будет и впредь инициативно и в одностороннем порядке нарушать этот договорный акт.

Есть и еще одна особенность. Она связана с двумя оперативными комплексами американской системы ПРО в Европе: один уже поставлен на боевое дежурство в Румынии, второй строится в Польше. В их универсальные шахтовые пусковые установки «Мк-41» могут без проблем загружаться американские крылатые ракеты морского базирования (КРМБ) класса «Томагавк» с ядерными боезарядами, так как подобные установки один к одному копируют аналогичные многофункциональные системы «Иджис», установленные на боевых кораблях ВМС США двух классов. Такой возможности ничто не препятствует: КРМБ не запрещены договором 1987 года.

Газета «Вашингтон пост», близкая к Республиканской партии Соединенных Штатов, признает, что майское решение Палаты представителей, о котором идет речь, является сигналом наращивания кампании против договоров в сфере контроля над вооружениями. Соглашение о ядерной программе Ирана президент Дональд Трамп уже разорвал. Складывается впечатление, что такая же незавидная судьба ожидает и договор 1987 года, который широко приветствовали во всем мире.

Автор: В.П.Козин , ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований, Источник: Портал МГИМО

Роль США и международного сообщества в достижении прочного мира в Афганистане

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Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин выступил на вебинаре по проблематике укрепления мира и стабильности в Афганистане после возможного вывода войск США с его территории.

Мероприятие было организовано Пакистанским университетом по науке и технике. В.П. Козин предложил, чтобы свои воинские контингенты из Афганистана навсегда вывели также все страны-члены НАТО - с обязательством без их размещения в соседних с ним государствах. Эксперт призвал вновь объявить нейтральный и неприсоединившийся статус этой страны, без иностранного военного присутствия на ее территории. Это можно было бы объявить в высшем  общенациональном законодательном органе Афганистана - Лойя Джирге (Великом Собрании). Этот орган мог бы также призвать граждан страны полностью прекратить применение оружия против друг друга и решать существующие внутренние проблемы мирным путем, посредством переговоров с широким участием всех политических сил страны.

России нет смысла даже вести переговоры с США о Договоре СНВ-4


 

В настоящее время и даже в отдалённой перспективе нет никаких условий для того, чтобы пойти с США и НАТО в целом на сокращение вполне определённых существующих эффективных вооружений и новейших перспективных вооружений, которыми владеет или очень скоро будет располагать Россия.

Первого августа этого года в своём заявлении к участникам десятой Обзорной конференции о реализации Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия президент США Джозеф Байден сообщил, что его администрация готова оперативно провести переговоры по новой системе контроля над вооружениями с целью замены двустороннего Договора о сокращении стратегических наступательных вооружений (Договора СНВ-3), срок действия которого истечёт в феврале 2026 года. Он также добавил, что готовность к такой работе с Соединёнными Штатами должна продемонстрировать Россия.

Главные вопросы к Байдену

В этом кратком пассаже американский президент не уточнил несколько обстоятельств, имеющих принципиальное значение. Например: на каких принципах должен разрабатываться новый Договор СНВ-4; каковыми будут его основные количественные лимиты по ядерным боезарядам и их носителям; на какой срок он может быть заключён и, наконец, как такой договорный акт будет увязываться с другими видами вооружений, которые определяют глобальную стратегическую стабильность и баланс интересов в российско-американских отношениях.

Не детализировали впоследствии эти и иные возможные ключевые элементы будущей договорённости и другие американские высокопоставленные лица, имеющие отношение к контролю над ракетно-ядерными вооружениями.

При всей важности решения задачи поэтапного и контролируемого процесса сокращения стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений с участием всех без исключения ядерных государств к какому-то крайнему сроку возникает вполне законный вопрос: имеются ли благоприятные условия для начала работы над главными положениями российско-американского Договора СНВ-4 в настоящее время или нет?

Нет, не имеются. Это не просто спонтанно возникшее мнение, а твёрдое и уже давно созревшее убеждение. Оно основано на многих причинах, которые представляются объективными и которые невозможно игнорировать.

Угрозы у рубежей России и разорванные договоры

В настоящее время и даже в отделённой перспективе нет никаких условий для того, чтобы пойти с США и НАТО в целом на сокращение вполне определённых существующих эффективных вооружений и новейших перспективных вооружений, которыми владеет или очень скоро будет располагать Россия. Данное утверждение основывается на учёте таких факторов, как: усиление многоплановой и чрезвычайно враждебной антироссийской политики, наращивание наступательных комбинированных видов вооружений передового базирования у российских рубежей, включение прямых угроз в адрес России, её союзников и друзей, а также ясно выраженная готовность применить против России ядерные и другие виды вооружений.

Надо также учитывать, что в период деятельности предыдущих американских президентов, то есть до президентства Джозефа Байдена, Вашингтон:

– разорвал с Россией два договора по контролю над вооружениями (Договор по ПРО и Договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности),

– в одностороннем порядке вышел из трёх многосторонних договорных актов (Договора по открытому небу, Договору о торговле оружием и «иранской ядерной сделки»),

– нарушил две международные Конвенции (о запрещении химического и биологического (бактериологического) оружия), а также Договор о нераспространении ядерного оружия,

– не ратифицировал Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний.

Надо особо отметить, что нынешняя «демократическая» американская администрация не собирается возобновить участие США в разорванных договорах. Она также не намерена прекратить нарушения положений действующих договоров в области контролирования вооружений.

Нам не помогут выборочные сокращения

Россия вряд ли добьётся укрепления стратегической стабильности, если в соответствии с планами США будет сокращать одни виды вооружений и одновременно давать «зелёный свет» их другим видам только в интересах Вашингтона.

Соединённые Штаты усиливают развёртывание стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений, тактического ядерного оружия в Европе и Азии, а также средств их доставки. Американцам активно содействуют в этом остальные государства, являющиеся участниками Североатлантического союза, которые уже давно превратили свою территорию в плацдарм для совершения агрессии не только против Донбасса, но и России в целом.

Вряд ли помогут привлечь американскую сторону к конструктивным переговорам демонстрации или показы новейших российских перспективных вооружений на нашей территории американским делегациям, например, гиперзвукового планирующего боевого блока «Авангард» (уже демонстрировался) или новейшей МБР «Сармат» (запланирована к показу). Не помогут. Это наивное представление.

Кроме того, в условиях, когда Вашингтон вставляет палки в колёса российским инспекционным группам, желающим посетить Соединённые Штаты и проконтролировать развёртывание американских стратегических ядерных вооружений в соответствии с действующим Договором СНВ-3, такие показы с нашей стороны представляются несбалансированными, а стало быть – нецелесообразными.

Стратегии против России

Действующие шесть американских ключевых стратегий – стратегии национальной безопасности, национальной обороны, а также ядерная, космическая, противоракетная и киберстратегия – определяют Россию в качестве одного из основных противников США. Такие военно-стратегические установки указывают на Россию как на страну, над которой в перспективе нужно обязательно одержать победу во всех сферах, то есть на суше и море, в воздушном, космическом и киберпространствах.

Использованные в каждой из названных стратегий специфические постулаты функционального сдерживания предусматривают не только гарантии военного превосходства над Россией, но и превращение всех этих областей в зоны военных действий.

Каждая из стратегий определяет особенности целенаправленного сдерживания России. В их основе лежит ориентир на тотальное глобальное военное доминирование американской стороны.

Особую опасность для национальной безопасности Российской Федерации представляет объявленная угроза американской стороны организовать и провести против нашего государства широкие по охвату и опасные по последствиям кибератаки наступательного характера – как по линии национальных киберсил, так и с помощью киберпотенциалов американских специальных служб, развёрнутых в 80 государствах мира, то есть не только в 30 государствах-союзниках по НАТО, но и ещё в пятидесяти внеблоковых странах, под предлогом обеспечения кибербезопасности предпринимательских торгово-экономических и финансовых структур.

Все эти стратегии активно реализуются. Под них выделяются значительные ассигнования и военно-технические средства.

Военно-промышленный комплекс Соединённых Штатов уже приступил к созданию новых ракет средней дальности с ядерными боезарядами, которые они планируют развернуть также на европейском и азиатском континентах и которые будут представлять непосредственную угрозу не только для Российской Федерации, но и для Китайской Народной Республики, которая уже квалифицируется в США как враг Америки №1.

В Европе и АТР развёртываются американские пусковые установки не только под оборонительные противоракетные вооружения, но и под наступательные вооружения большой дальности. Сначала это будут крылатые ракеты, а впоследствии – гиперзвуковые средства.

А как можно сбрасывать со счетов накачивание ВСУ смертоносными видами вооружений 58 государствами мира, главным поставщиком которых является Вашингтон. Президент Байден уже направил на Украину двадцать второй по счёту транш поставок наиболее смертоносных дальнобойных видов вооружений для убийства мирных граждан в Донбассе, а также в Запорожской и Херсонской областях.

По данным российского федерального ведомства, с начала СВО 24 февраля по 23 сентября этого года киевская военщина в ДНР убила 908 человек, ранила 3475 человек и 26 детей, разрушила 1790 и повредила 7470 объектов социальной инфраструктуры. Аналогичные данные по ЛНР выглядят следующим образом: убиты 91 человек и 292 ранены, погибли семь детей, разрушены 252 и повреждены 2846 объектов социальной инфраструктуры.

Эти люди были убиты и названные объекты были разрушены или повреждены, в том числе американскими тяжёлыми дальнобойными вооружениями, направленными по личной просьбе Зеленского и по инициативе Байдена. Они не отказались уничтожать граждан России на четырёх территориях, которые не захотели жить в неонацистской Украине, а решили войти в состав государства-защитника на основе Устава ООН. По этим причинам оба эти неадекватные деятели являются военными преступниками. Россия имеет полное право привлечь их к уголовной ответственности заочно по названным основаниям и по их специфическим агрессивным публичным заявлениям.

Отвечать по всей строгости военного времени

Получив 30 сентября известие из Москвы о подписании договоров о присоединении четырёх новых территорий в состав России, неадекватный Байден поспешил заявить о направлении нового транша вооружений агрессивной Украине. А Палата представителей Конгресса без долгих дебатов проголосовала за выделение ей ещё 12,35 млрд долларов, из которых значительная часть, а именно 7,5 млрд, пойдёт на военные цели, на продолжение украинско-натовской политики геноцида в центре Европы.

В специальном заявлении госсекретарь Блинкен вновь продолжал активно науськивать Зеленского затягивать начатую им агрессию – теперь уже против России в целом. Президенты Румынии, Чехии, Эстонии, Латвии, Литвы, Северной Македонии, Черногории, Польши и Словакии поддержали стенания Зеленского срочно принять Украину в милитаристский трансатлантический союз.

Не пора ли нам разорвать дипломатические отношения со всеми этими государствами, а также теми, кто снабжает киевских неонацистов смертоносными видами вооружений и начать уничтожать их наземные и воздушные эшелоны сразу же при пересечении натовско-украинской границы?

Всё чаще высокопоставленные американские представители распространяют слухи о, якобы, готовности России применить тактическое ядерное оружие против Украины. Но не предоставив никаких доказательств этого, Соединённые Штаты всё чаще заявляют о возможности применить его против нашего государства. Обвиняя в этом Россию, хотя российское военно-политическое руководство уже несколько раз заявляло об отсутствии таких планов, Вашингтон с помощью информационно-пропагандистских средств намерен прикрыть собственные замыслы о применении ядерного оружия.

Нам следует присмотреться с особой внимательностью к таким провокационным заходам. Не дай Бог, пропустить первый ядерный удар. Считаю целесообразным упростить процедуру применения ядерного оружия в Российской Федерации – независимо от его функционального предназначения.

Осуществлённая недавно, в масштабах крайне опасных с точки зрения последствий для экологии и энергетической безопасности Европы, беспрецедентная диверсия против критически важной структуры, а именно в отношении трёх ниток газопровода «Северный поток-1 и 2» в Балтийском море, служит ещё одним предостережением об опасности любого обсуждения с США и НАТО вопросов контроля над вооружениями в ближайшей или более отдалённой перспективе, в том числе Договора СНВ-4.

Нет никакого смысла восстанавливать эти две газоносные артерии. Подобная диверсия со стороны США и НАТО может повториться. В её основе лежит необъявленная, но вполне очевидная американская стратегия уничтожения общеевропейской энергетической инфраструктуры и недопущение к ней России в качестве ведущего поставщика природного газа.

США и ряд других стран-членов трансатлантического альянса располагают и корректируемыми глубинными бомбами, и автономными беспилотными подводными аппаратами, которые вполне могли бы быть использованы для совершения такой варварской диверсии. Её могут спонсировать, организовать и осуществить только враждебные для России государства, но никак не какие-то террористические группы. Это означает, что против РФ фактически уже открыт принципиально новый путь для совершения крайне опасных, деструктивных и масштабных враждебных актов практически в любой сфере и в любое время.

Наш «порох должен всегда оставаться сухим»

Таким образом, имеется слишком много обстоятельств, которые требуют бережно сохранять наш национальный оборонный потенциал. Сохранить и упрочить без нелепого сокращения или ослабления перспективных вооружений, выгодного только Соединённым Штатам и Североатлантическому союзу. Такой курс диктуют интересы национальной безопасности Российской Федерации, общенациональный инстинкт самосохранения и наша независимость. Наш «порох должен всегда оставаться сухим».

Вступать в какие-то переговоры с Вашингтоном по теме, которую предложил Джозеф Байден в начале августа этого года, а именно начать обсуждение Договора СНВ-4, можно будет тогда, когда американское военно-политическое руководство:

1) пересмотрит свою враждебную антироссийскую политику и риторику в адрес России, её союзников и друзей, прекратит поставки смертоносных вооружений преступному киевскому режиму;

2) переведёт двусторонние отношения с Россией по всем направлениям без исключения в конструктивное русло, вернёт нам все финансовые долги и российскую дипломатическую недвижимость;

и 3) начнёт на деле выстраивать такие отношения и взаимный диалог по контролю над вооружениями на основе принципов равенства, неделимой безопасности, а также во имя укрепления стратегической стабильности на основе взаимного баланса интересов.

Без решения всех этих вопросов обсуждение Договора СНВ-4 представляется крайне опасным с точки зрения интересов национальной безопасности России, её союзников и друзей.

Автор: Владимир Козин, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России. Источник: Еженедельник «Звезда»

 

Российская великолепная шестерка

Москва ответит на попытки Вашингтона ее контролировать

В Российской Федерации и Соединенных Штатах продолжается обсуждение вопроса о судьбе Договора СНВ-3. После объявления президентом России в марте 2018 года о разработке шести перспективных видов вооружений нового поколения, уже названных «великолепной шестеркой», к начавшейся дискуссии по договору добавился дополнительный элемент: распространяются ли его положения только на часть или на все названные шесть видов вооружений?

Напомним, что в эту «великолепную шестерку» вошли: маневрирующий гиперзвуковой планирующий боевой блок (ГПББ) «Авангард», уже принятый на вооружение российскими ВС; проходящая МБР «Сармат», которая должна придать ему первоначальную скорость на части траектории после запуска; гиперзвуковой ракетный комплекс воздушного базирования «Кинжал»; крылатая ракета с мини-ядерной двигательной установкой «Буревестник», способная облететь весь земной шар; океанская многоцелевая автономная подводная система «Посейдон» с ядерным боезарядом, а также мощный боевой лазер «Пересвет».

Аргументы американской стороны

Получив эту информацию, американские официальные лица вначале делали упор на том, что под ограничения Договора СНВ-3 подпадают только первые две новые системы названных «экзотических вооружений» России, а именно: ГПББ «Авангард» и МБР «Сармат», которые не имеют аналогов в мире. Именно эти перспективные системы ударных вооружений изначально вызвали в Государственном департаменте и Министерстве обороны США глубокую тревогу и озабоченность.

Подобная реакция была вызвана тем, что МБР «Сармат» способна выводить гиперзвуковой планирующий боевой блок на необходимую высоту, после чего он мог бы двигаться самостоятельно. Столь специфическая реакция проявилась у американской стороны и по поводу тактико-технических характеристик названных систем. Дело в том, что американский ВПК в настоящее время и в ближайшей перспективе практически ничего не может противопоставить этим российским системам по ударно-боевым возможностям и полетным показателям, в особенности по скоростным характеристикам. В Вашингтоне признали существенное отставание в соревновании с Москвой и в области создания высокопрочных материалов, которые были, например, использованы российским ОПК при создании ГПББ «Авангард».

Впоследствии высокопоставленные американские должностные лица добавили к списку «экзотических» видов вооружений России и все остальные четыре вида, на которые, мол, также распространяются положения Договора СНВ-3. Официальный Вашингтон придерживается подобной линии вплоть до настоящего времени.

Причины расширения «запросной» позиции

Имеются по меньшей мере две причины расширения американской «запросной» позиции по данной проблематике. («Запросная» позиция на переговорах – это наличие у стороны заранее сформулированной четкой позиции по поводу того, что она хотела бы получить в результате переговоров. – «НВО».)

Причина первая заключается в том, что российская сторона слишком настойчиво стала предлагать своим американским визави обсуждение ГПББ «Авангард» и МБР «Сармат» с целью вовлечения Вашингтона в диалог по проблематике контроля над вооружениями, где по его вине образовался глухой тупик. Вторая причина состоит в том, что в конце 2019 года американским представителям был продемонстрирован сам ГПББ «Авангард», словно он входил в список СНВ. Естественно, что в Вашингтоне такой жест повышенной транспарентности российской стороны был расценен как признание Москвой реальной увязки названного ГПББ с указанной перспективной МБР.

Что касается оценок на эту тему в экспертном сообществе двух государств, то в нем нет единого мнения. Одни специалисты считают, что под лимиты Пражского договора подпадают только два вида вооружений, то есть «Авангард» и «Сармат»; другие полагают, что договор распространяется на всю «великолепную шестерку»; третьи утверждают, что ни на один из шести названных видов вооружений не могут быть распространены положения указанного договорного акта.

Не имея оснований для сокращения всех шести российских перспективных видов вооружений, в Вашингтоне тем не менее заметно усилили давление на Москву по данной проблематике. Причина в том, что, по мнению американской стороны, новейшие высокотехнологичные ударные системы позволят России многократно усилить оборонный потенциал в короткие сроки при умеренных затратах материально-технических и финансовых средств. Не имея оснований для резкого сокращения всех шести «экзотических» видов российских вооружений, в Вашингтоне решили воспользоваться теорией «искусственных увязок» таких систем с Договором СНВ-3, который, мол, имеет непосредственное отношение к таким ударным системам. Указав на ГПББ «Авангард» и МБР «Сармат», именно об этом заявила в сенатском Комитете по международным делам в 2019 году тогдашний заместитель государственного секретаря США по контролю над вооружениями и вопросам международной безопасности Андреа Томпсон.

Дополнительные аргументы

Впоследствии в Вашингтоне решили особо не заморачиваться: там назвали «дестабилизирующими» все шесть видов перспективных российских вооружений. Но с таким же успехом российская сторона может назвать «дестабилизирующими» любой из видов создающейся качественно новой стратегической ядерной триады США и их собственных «экзотических» вооружений, например, ПЛАРБ, переоборудованные под неядерные стратегические вооружения для доставки КРМБ и универсальные системы ПРО двойного назначения, в пусковые установки которых можно загружать как оборонительные, так и наступательные виды вооружений.

Появился и еще один аргумент. Ограничение или уничтожение «Авангарда» и «Сармата» в Вашингтоне стали обосновывать тем, что у США еще нет аналогичных систем и поэтому им нечего сокращать, а вот Россия, мол, обязана сделать это.

В последнее время с заявлениями об охвате Договором СНВ-3 всех шести «экзотических» видов российских вооружений стали активно выступать и высокопоставленные представители Пентагона и Государственного департамента США. Складывается впечатление, что тогдашний заместитель государственного секретаря США Андреа Томпсон и нынешний шеф Пентагона Марк Эспер даже не потрудились внимательно прочитать текст этого договорного акта. Дело в том, что ни ГПББ «Авангард», ни МБР «Сармат», ни другие новые перспективные «экзотические» российские виды вооружений не подпадают под ограничения, введенные Договором СНВ-3.

Альтернативная точка зрения в США

Аналогичную точку зрения разделяет и ряд западных исследователей. В частности, об этом недавно заявили редактор по стратегическим вооружениям справочного издания «Джейн» Ли Уиллет, а также экс-заместитель государственного секретаря США по оборонной политике Эрик Эделман и бывший старший директор по вопросам обороны и контролю над вооружениями в Совете национальной безопасности США Франклин Миллер. Они признали, что объявленные Россией новые «экзотические» виды вооружений, включая ГПББ «Авангард», не подпадают под ограничения Договора СНВ-3, хотя и представляют «непосредственную угрозу» Соединенным Штатам. В подходе к проблеме введения ограничений на некие «экзотические» виды вооружений нужно не только опираться на терминологические определения Договора СНВ-3, но и на его императивные положения.

В этой связи уместно привлечь внимание к мнению бывшего руководителя делегации США на переговорах по его созданию Розы Готтемюллер, которая справедливо считает, что как только ядерные боезаряды отстыковываются от средств их доставки, например, МБР и БРПЛ, и размещаются в складских помещениях, то они считаются неразвернутыми и не учитываются в ограничениях, определенных этим договором. По этой же причине МБР «Сармат» не может считаться развернутой и учитываемой в его лимитах, поскольку ни один боезаряд к ней до сих пор не пристыкован. И не будет пристыкован, пока эта МБР не пройдет всех положенных испытаний и проверок.

Что же записано в Договоре СНВ-3?

Все названные системы России не упомянуты в этом договоре, в нем нет термина «ГПББ», а МБР «Сармат» еще не принята на вооружение. В пункте 8 его статьи III только содержатся конкретные перечисления носителей СНВ сторон, которые подпадают под ограничения Пражского договора. Там заявлено, что на дату подписания этого документа «существующими типами» межконтинентальных баллистических ракет для Российской Федерации являлись МБР «РС-12М», «РС-12М2», «РС-18», «РС-20» и «РС-24», а к существующим российским типам баллистических ракет подводных лодок были отнесены БРПЛ «РСМ-50», «РСМ-52», «РСМ-54» и «РСМ-56». В этой же статье перечисляются существующие у сторон пусковые установки для МБР и БРПЛ двух государств и типы тяжелых стратегических бомбардировщиков. Как видно, никаких упоминаний об «Авангардах», «Сарматах» или еще о каких-то ракетных системах в этом договоре нет и в помине.

Что касается ГПББ «Авангард», то он является уникальным боевым блоком, об ограничительных параметрах которых в Договоре СНВ-3 вообще ничего не говорится. Статья II договора указывает только на три конкретных объекта сокращений СНВ до определенного лимита. Это МБР, БРПЛ и стратегические тяжелые бомбардировщики сторон, их пусковые установки и ядерные боезаряды.

В данном контексте имеет значение и пункт 2 статьи II, где зафиксировано, что каждая из сторон имеет право самостоятельно определять состав и структуру своих СНВ. Немаловажно и положение пункта 1 статьи V, в котором за сторонами признается их право на модернизацию и замену одних видов СНВ другими. Никакие сроки при этом не оговариваются.

Что же касается новой МБР «Сармат», что в соответствии со статьей III для целей Пражского договора, в том числе для засчета МБР и БРПЛ, могут быть засчитаны только те ракеты названных типов, которые «обслуживаются, хранятся и транспортируются» в виде уже собранных ракет в пусковых контейнерах или без них. Американской стороне хорошо известно и другое обстоятельство: ракета «Сармат» пока проходит различные испытания, которые не завершены; ее массовое производство не начато и она не принята на вооружение РВСН России.

Нельзя просто так отдавать козыри

Российские эксперты, выступающие за укрепление обороноспособности России и стратегической стабильности в мире, выражают глубокое сомнение в том, что Москва должна идти навстречу Вашингтону. Все без исключения российские «экзотические» системы, о которых он говорит, кроме МБР «Сармат», да и то в будущем, не подпадают под положения этого договора.

Коснувшись проблематики продления срока действия Договора СНВ-3, президент России Владимир Путин признал на встрече с главами ведущих мировых информационных агентств 6 июня 2019 года в Санкт-Петербурге на полях Международного экономического форума, что Россия обогнала своих конкурентов в разработке гиперзвукового оружия. Он также добавил одну важную деталь: новейшие российские высокоточные и суперскоростные системы вооружений способны гарантировать безопасность страны на длительную историческую перспективу.

Действительно, какой же смысл ликвидировать подобные российские системы вооружений, если Вашингтон практически отказался признавать наличие взаимосвязи между стратегическими наступательными вооружениями и стратегическими оборонительными вооружениями, что было зафиксировано в преамбуле Договора СНВ-3? Если США негативно относятся к 13 двусторонним и многосторонним договорам в сфере контроля над вооружениями, а часть из них уже денонсировала? Какой смысл в этом, если американское руководство отказывается от принципа равенства и равной безопасности и одновременно привержено наступательным военным стратегиям, в том числе неизменной стратегии нанесения первого ядерного удара?

Было бы странным, если бы Москва пошла на сокращение или уничтожение своих новых перспективных систем вооружений только потому, что так хочется Вашингтону. А также в условиях, когда она достигла в этом гораздо большего прогресса по сравнению с США. Такой шаг был бы весьма опасным, поскольку он негативным образом сказался на укреплении национальной обороны и безопасности России, а также в еще большей степени подорвал бы стратегическую стабильность в глобальном измерении.

Новые «экзотические» системы вооружений, о которых здесь идет речь, позволяют в разы укрепить не только национальную безопасность России, но и стратегическую стабильность в глобальном масштабе, поскольку их принятие на вооружение позволяет выправить некоторые дисбалансы в ядерных, противоракетных и в тяжелых обычных вооружениях, которые возникли по инициативе Соединенных Штатов и в их пользу.

Выступая 6 ноября 2019 года в Кремле на церемонии представления офицеров и прокуроров по случаю их назначения на высшие командные должности и присвоения им высших воинских и специальных званий, президент Владимир Путин заявил: «…мы готовы сделать все от нас зависящее для того, чтобы подтолкнуть разоруженческий процесс с учетом наших новейших систем вооружения, задача которых заключается исключительно в том, чтобы гарантировать безопасность с учетом растущих для нас угроз».

Именно «подтолкнуть разоруженческий процесс», а не разоружиться в одностороннем порядке ради него. Но коль скоро этот процесс «подтолкнуть» не удалось, то зачем жертвовать самым ценным в обмен на пустышку с другой стороны? Ключевое значение также имеет вторая часть цитируемого высказывания о задаче новейших систем вооружений, которая заключается «…исключительно в том, чтобы гарантировать безопасность с учетом растущих для нас угроз».

Национальная безопасность в приоритете

Диалога с США по новым российским системам гиперзвукового оружия не может быть без комплексного обсуждения аналогичных американских проектов, как заявил РИА «Новости» 17 апреля 2020 года заместитель министра иностранных дел Сергей Рябков, уточнив, что также необходимо обсуждение проблематики создания глобальной ПРО США, размещения оружия в космосе и ряда других программ, которые крайне дестабилизируют стратегическую сферу и вызывают озабоченность Москвы. По его словам, разговор по тематике стратегической стабильности в более широком контексте может быть только комплексным, и в его рамках российская сторона будет руководствоваться исключительно задачей обеспечения национальной безопасности. «Это альфа и омега нашего подхода вообще к работе в сфере контроля над вооружениями», заявил заместитель главы российского дипломатического ведомства, курирующий проблематику контроля над вооружениями и отношения России с США.

Это правильное суждение. Никогда не нужно стремиться достигнуть ключевых договоренностей с такой сложной переговорной страной, как США, в спешке. Особенно нецелесообразно демонстрировать свою заинтересованность в достижении каких-то результатов еще до того, как свою позицию высказала другая договаривающаяся сторона, и до того, как начаты соответствующие официальные переговоры делегаций сторон.

Дональд Трамп пока не сделал никаких конкретных заявлений по всей проблематике контроля над вооружениями, туманно объявив лишь о некоем «новом» подходе к ней. В этих условиях нужно терпеливо дождаться его разъяснений. И лишь потом, сделав его глубокий анализ, сопоставив его с ключевыми пятью военными стратегиями США (национальной безопасности и обороны, а также ядерной, противоракетной и космической), вкупе с программами их военного строительства и военными приготовлениями, предлагать рецепты решения накопленных проблем, кстати говоря, созданных не нами.

Россия успешно завершит создание перспективных видов вооружений, несмотря на призывы США свернуть их разработку, заявил заместитель главы российского внешнеполитического ведомства в мае 2020 года. «Наши перспективные системы вооружения создаются, своевременно будут завершены циклы их испытаний, и они будут поставлены на вооружение», – приводит слова Сергея Рябкова газета «Коммерсант», комментируя призыв к России со стороны недавно назначенного специального представителя президента США по контролю над вооружениями Маршалла Биллингсли отказаться от разработки новых видов вооружений и «не спускать деньги в канализацию».

«Пусть их не заботят какие-то обстоятельства, связанные с тем, как и в каком объеме будут финансироваться наши программы», – отметил заместитель министра иностранных дел России. Он также заявил, что Россия будет вести диалог с США по контролю над вооружениями, понимая его важность и сознавая свою ответственность, но будет делать это, исходя исключительно из соображений обеспечения собственной безопасности.

Автор: Владимир Петрович Козин, Источник: “НВО”

 

Российские эксперты полагают, что НАТО ставит целью затянуть украинский кризис на десятилетия

Результаты европейского турне Джо Байдена не стали неожиданностью в Москве. Российские эксперты уверены, что Вашингтон сделает все возможное для затягивания украинского кризиса.

Эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО, член-корреспондент Российской академии военных наук Владимир Козин сказал: "Затягивание конфликта и затягивание агрессии Украины против Донбасса и против Российской Федерации это вполне, так сказать, очевидный факт и он в интересах НАТО, они хотят его продолжить максимально долго, максимально. А лучше десятилетиями, на долгие годы вперед".

По словам Владимира Козина, НАТО стремится ослабить Россию через украинский кризис, чтобы в конечном счете спровоцировать ее распад. Ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО называет происходящее вторым этапом холодной войны.

Владимир Козин отметил: "Появилось название «Холодная война 2.0», то есть холодная война второй версии, которая отличается от первой фазы холодной войны. Резко увеличилась антироссийская риторика, русофобия поднялась. Экономические санкции – мы таких санкций еще никогда не видели в своей истории. Мы сейчас перешли вот эту планку иранскую в два раза, у нас шесть тысяч различных видов санкций, вот. Поэтому холодная война не закончилась".

Источник: Китайская глобальная телевизионная сеть (CGTN)

Российско-пакистанским отношениям 70 лет: динамичное развитие, позитивные перспективы

1 мая 2018 года Москва и Исламабад отметят большую дату в истории своих отношений: 70 лет назад, а именно 1 мая 1948 года СССР и Пакистан установили дипломатические отношения друг с другом.

В последние годы эти отношения квалифицируются бурным подъемом в различных областях — как в двустороннем формате, так и в рамках международной структуры ШОС, в которую Пакистан вошел в качестве полноправного члена в июне 2017 года. Исламабад энергично встроился в практическую деятельность этой крупной организации и с большой отдачей работает по всей ее широкой повестке дня, в том числе по вопросам обеспечения безопасности в регионе.

Хорошие результаты дает взаимодействие российских и пакистанских дипломатов в рамках ООН и других многосторонних организациях. Принципиально важно, что национальные позиции двух наших государств по многим вопросам международной повестки дня близки или совпадают.

Разностороннее и позитивное сотрудничество с Исламабадом занимает заметное место в системе внешнеполитических приоритетов Российской Федерации. В этом нет и не может быть никаких сомнений.

Руководители России и Пакистана различного уровня регулярно встречаются и обмениваются мнениями по ключевым вопросам региональной обстановки и двусторонних отношений. Российское и пакистанское руководство неизменно подтверждают свой позитивный и долговременный настрой на продолжение совместных усилий по расширению конструктивного диалога, обеспечению стабильности и безопасности на евразийском пространстве. Беседы сторон носят содержательный и партнерский характер.

Официальный визит президента Пакистана Асифа Али Зардари в Россию в мае 2011 года стал новой вехой в развитии наших связей. Известно, что в Исламабаде хотели бы видеть с ответным визитом российского президента В.В.Путина. Нет сомнения в том, что его официальная поездка в Пакистан в еще большей степени укрепила бы плодотворное российско-пакистанское взаимодействие.

Хорошие перспективы имеет энергетическое сотрудничество, которое является одним из приоритетных направлений двух государств. Флагманским проектом является строительство газопровода «Север — Юг» из Карачи в Лахор в соответствии с Межправительственным соглашением 2015 года. Прорабатываются и другие возможности, включая поставки в Пакистан по линии публичного акционерного общества «Газпром» сжиженного природного газа, строительство региональных трубопроводов, в том числе морского газопровода Иран — Пакистан — Индия.

Москва признает высокую роль Исламабада в региональной и международной политике, его заметное влияние в мусульманском мире и его стратегическое положение в Азии и в районе Индийского океана. Россия и Пакистан сталкиваются со схожими проблемами и угрозами национальной безопасности в виде терроризма и внешнего вмешательства во внутренние дела, которые в последнее время приобрели новый размах. Россия и Пакистан активно взаимодействуют в многосторонних организациях. У наших стран близкие позиции по широкому кругу международных проблем, включая вопросы мирного урегулирования конфликтов, становления многополюсного миропорядка, усиления центральной роли ООН, утверждения принципов международного права в отношениях между государствами.

Оба государства имеют совпадающие или близкие позиции по ближневосточным делам, в частности, по Сирии и по другим региональным, международным темам, которые представляют взаимный интерес. Обе стороны регулярно анализируют ситуацию вокруг сирийского урегулирования, сирийского «химического досье», на котором некоторые страны, к сожалению, пытаются спекулировать в нечистоплотных, а то и в прямых агрессивных целях.

Российская Федерация и Исламская Республика Пакистан выражают тревогу по поводу ситуации, которая сложилась в палестино-израильском урегулировании и считают, что эту проблему необходимо решать на основе резолюций Совета Безопасности ООН и «Арабской мирной инициативы», которая была поддержана всеми членами Организации исламского сотрудничества.

Москва и Исламабад уделяют особое внимание положению в Афганистане и вокруг него, проявляют обоюдную озабоченность в связи с деградацией ситуации в сфере безопасности в этой стране, ростом террористической активности, наркотической угрозы и укреплением позиций квазихалифата «Исламское государство» на севере и востоке афганского государства. Россия и Пакистан исходят из необходимости скорейшего запуска в Исламской Республике Афганистан процесса национального примирения при лидирующей роли самих афганцев и учете интересов государств региона, в особенности сопредельных с Афганистаном.

Регулярно собирается на свои заседания российско-пакистанская Консультативная группа по стратегической стабильности, в ходе которых предметно обсуждаются целый комплекс актуальных вопросов, касающихся контроля над вооружениями, ограничения вооружений и нераспространения оружия массового уничтожения. В процессе делового и конструктивного обмена мнениями на таких встречах стороны неизменно подтверждают обоюдный настрой на расширение российско-пакистанского взаимодействия в интересах обеспечения глобальной и региональной стратегической стабильности.

Россия при поддержке ряда государств инициировала принятие на ежегодных сессиях Генеральной Ассамблеи ООН резолюций с призывом принять обязательства о неразмещении первыми оружия в космическом пространстве. Подобное политическое обязательство, будучи одной из форм межгосударственной транспарентности и взаимного доверия, на данный момент является наиболее действенной и реально работающей мерой, реализация которой окажет содействие предотвращению выводу оружия в космос, который является общим наследием человечества. Пакистан позитивно воспринял эту инициативу, став соавтором соответствующей резолюции Генеральной Ассамблеи ООН.

В России весьма позитивно отреагировали на заявление Исламабада, что он не будет вводить какие-либо односторонние санкции против России, в особенности, когда такие санкции являются политически мотивированными. В Москве также обратили внимание на сбалансированную точку зрения пакистанской стороны на «инцидент в Солсбери», связанный с попытками неких лиц отравить Сергея и Юлию Скрипалей в начале марта в этом городе, а также поставленный террористическими группировками «химический спектакль» в сирийском городе Дума недалеко от Дамаска в начале апреля текущего года, который был использован США, Великобританией и Францией для совершения тройственной ракетной агрессии против суверенной Сирии. Пакистан справедливо считает, что такие «инциденты» должны тщательно расследоваться в соответствии с положениями и процедурами, определенными в международной Конвенции о запрещении химического оружия.

В последние годы двусторонние встречи способствовали наращиванию контактов вооруженных сил России и Пакистана по таким направлениям, как совместные учения сухопутных войск и военно-морских сил, а также укрепление связей по линии генеральных штабов. Заметным явлением в отношениях между двумя нашими государствами стали совместные российско-пакистанские тактические военные учения, проводимые под девизом «Дружба».

В 2016–2017 годах уже состоялось несколько таких учений. Они были организованы как на российской, так и на пакистанской территории. Примечательно, что обе стороны намерены продолжать проведение таких учений в 2018 и в последующие годы. В их процессе отрабатываются навыки взаимодействия по ведению антитеррористических операций, в том числе в горных условиях. Россия и другие государства приветствовали подключение Пакистана к Региональной антитеррористической структуре (РАТС) Шанхайской организации сотрудничества. Москва довела до пакистанской стороны инициативу по созданию на базе РАТС универсального Центра по противодействию современным вызовам и угрозам, включая борьбу с наркобизнесом, который напрямую финансирует терроризм.

Россия подтверждает готовность и далее содействовать укреплению контртеррористического потенциала Пакистана, что отвечает интересам стран всего региона, поддерживает его настрой на активное противодействие терроризму и экстремизму, и в данном контексте будет оказывать пакистанской стороне практическое содействие в наращивании контртеррористического потенциала.

Между Россией и Пакистаном расширяется военно-техническое сотрудничество, которое способствует укреплению его вооруженных сил. Этому способствует Соглашение о сотрудничестве в оборонной сфере между Исламской Республикой Пакистан и Российской Федерацией, которое было подписано в Исламабаде во время визита министра обороны Сергея Шойгу в ноябре 2014 года. Формируется комиссия по военно-техническому сотрудничеству в развитие подписанного в 2017 году межправительственного соглашения в этой сфере. В частности, Исламабад проявляет интерес к российским системам противовоздушной обороны, танкам Т-90, электронному оборудованию. Москва уже поставила пакистанской стороне партию вертолетов Ми-35М.

Российское военное руководство признательно Исламабаду за регулярное участие в Московской конференции по международной безопасности, которую ежегодно проводит Министерство обороны России. Этот форум уже утвердился в качестве площадки для открытого профессионального диалога по самому широкому спектру современных военно-политических проблем.

Плодотворно развиваются научные контакты между высшими учебными заведениями и научно-исследовательскими институтами России и Пакистана. Некоторые их них уже заключили соответствующие меморандумы о сотрудничестве с аналогичными российскими структурами.

В послании по случаю избрания В.В.Путина Президентом России на новый срок президент Пакистана Мамнун Хусейн и премьер-министр Пакистана Шахид Хаган Аббаси отметили, что «Пакистан и Россия поддерживают тесные, дружеские и кооперативные отношения. Наши отношения характеризуются взаимным доверием и сближением мнений по важным международным и региональным вопросам». В их поздравлении также говорится, что руководство Пакистана надеется на тесное сотрудничество с руководством Российской Федерации в целях дальнейшего укрепления сотрудничества во всех областях, представляющих взаимный интерес. Такую же надежду питают и в Москве.

Итак, к своему семидесятилетнему юбилею российско-пакистанские отношения вступили в стадию динамичного развития и с позитивными перспективами.

«Наши связи с Пакистаном носят конструктивный и взаимовыгодный характер», — заявил министр иностранных дел России С.В.Лавров на встрече со своим пакистанским коллегой Хаваджом Мухаммадом Асифом в феврале 2018 года в Москве.

Такая линия должна оставаться неизменной, поскольку она отвечает долговременным стратегическим интересам двух наших дружественных государств.

Автор:  В.П.Козин, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований

Россия значительно укрепит свой ядерный потенциал «Сарматом»

20 апреля Россия успешно провела испытания ракетного комплекса стратегического назначения (РКСН) с новой жидкостной межконтинентальной баллистической ракетой (МБР) тяжелого класса «Сармат». Во время испытаний были подтверждены расчетные характеристики на всех этапах полета этой ракеты.

Названный ракетный комплекс придет на смену комплекса советского производства «Воевода» также межконтинентальной дальности. По многим основным характеристикам новый комплекс превосходит своего предшественника, и в обозримой перспективе не будет иметь аналогов в мире.

Это самая мощная в мире боевая МБР наземного базирования. Беспрецедентная масса ее полезной нагрузки и универсальность боевой платформы позволяют оснащать ракету «Сармат» всеми типами современных и перспективных боевых блоков, включая гиперзвуковой планирующий крылатый боевой блок «Авангард».

Система управления ракетного комплекса обеспечивает высокую точность наведения установленных боезарядов.

Повышенные энергомассовые характеристики ракеты «Сармат» позволяют доставлять боевые блоки к объектам поражения по баллистической траектории на большую дальность.

Это дает возможность поражать любые объекты как с Северного направления, так и с Южного.

Короткий разгонный участок ракеты (значительно меньше, чем у МБР «Воевода») существенно затрудняет ее обнаружение в полете и перехват средствами противоракетной обороны.

Применяемые в составе ракеты РКСН «Сармат» средства противодействия системам ПРО обеспечивает гарантированное преодоление боевыми блоками любых рубежей «противоракетного щита» любой недружественной стороны. Боевые блоки ракеты «Сармат» в полете будут сопровождаться большим количеством неотличимых от них ложных боеголовок. Задача перехвата такого количества целей – практически невыполнима как для существующих, так и для перспективных систем ПРО других государств.

Улучшенные характеристики ракеты по дальности, забрасываемому весу, применяемым средствам противодействия противоракетным системам в совокупности с использованием новых передовых и перспективных технологий и материалов позволяют говорить об уникальности комплекса «Сармат» по многочисленным параметрам.

Массогабаритные характеристики ракеты «Сармат» обеспечивают ее размещение в существующих шахтных пусковых установках комплекса «Воевода» при минимальных доработках инфраструктуры позиционных районов, что значительно сокращает стоимость и сроки развертывания нового ракетного комплекса.

В Ужурском соединении РВСН (Красноярский край) ведутся работы по подготовке головного ракетного полка к перевооружению на новый ракетный комплекс.

Считаю, что следует обратить особое внимание военно-политического руководства стран-участниц НАТО в случае их обращения на то, что РКСН «Сармат» не подлежит обсуждению на каких-то будущих переговорах или консультациях с США и другими странами альянса по проблематике каких-то будущих сокращений стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений (СНЯВ) по двум ключевым причинам.

В-первых, она поименно не упомянута в договоре СНВ-3, который был продлен до 2026 года.

Во-вторых, по условиям названного договора она может считаться ракетой «существующего типа» только после того, когда завершится весь цикл ее испытаний (они должны завершиться в текущем году), начнется ее массовое производство и она будет принята на вооружение РВСН (в конце 2022 года).

По этим же причинам она не может быть заранее включена в формулы каких-то будущих сокращений СНЯВ между Россией и США. По названным основаниям любые демонстрации или показы такой ракеты представителям враждебных России государств представляются нецелесообразными.

Автор: В.П. Козин – член-корреспондент РАВН

Россия обеспечивает свою безопасность

 
На это направлено и приостановление участия нашей страны в Договоре СНВ-3

21 февраля в Послании Федеральному Собранию Президент России Владимир Путин предложил приостановить участие нашей страны в российско-американском Договоре о мерах по дальнейшему сокращению и ограничению стратегических наступательных вооружений (Договор СНВ-3). Эта инициатива была единогласно поддержана в Госдуме и Совете Федерации. Что означает собой эта приостановка, чем она может обернуться для России и как на неё отреагировали в мире? Эти и другие вопросы стали темой интервью, которое дал «Красной звезде» известный политолог Владимир Козин, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-­политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук.

– Владимир Петрович, вы известный эксперт в области стратегических наступательных вооружений, автор нескольких монографий по этому вопросу. Что вы можете сказать относительно принятого Россией решения о приостановлении действия в Договоре СНВ-3?

– Основные причины, которые подвигли наше государство на принятие такого решения, в кратком виде изложены в Послании Президента Федеральному Собранию. Это неоднократное нарушение Вашингтоном инспекционного режима, предусмотренного Договором СНВ-3. В частности, американцы необоснованно требовали допустить их инспекционные группы для посещения наших военных объектов СНВ, но без предоставления адекватной и полноценной возможности инспектирования российской стороной аналогичных объектов на территории Соединённых Штатов.

Владимир Путин обратил внимание на то, что цель США и их союзников по НАТО состоит, и они об этом говорят открыто, в нанесении стратегическое поражения России. Он возмутился, что американцы в этих условиях как ни в чём не бывало собираются разъезжать по нашим оборонным объектам, в том числе там, где сосредоточены новейшие перспективные системы России.

Было указано, что западные страны прямо причастны к попыткам киевского режима нанести удары по базам нашей стратегической авиации на континентальной части России с помощью тяжёлых беспилотников большой дальности, которые были модернизированы и оснащены при содействии натовских специалистов.

Президент отметил и то обстоятельство, что в названном договоре не учитываются ракетно-ядерные вооружения Великобритании и Франции.

В выступлении также подчёркивалось, что в США истекают гарантийные сроки годности к боевому применению отдельных видов ядерных боеприпасов. И в этой связи некоторые деятели в Вашингтоне заявляют о возможности натуральных испытаний своего ядерного оружия, в том числе с учётом того, что в США идёт разработка новых типов ядерных боеприпасов.

Вашингтон нарушает важнейшие положения о неделимости безопасности и игнорирует органическую взаимосвязь между стратегическими наступательными и стратегическими оборонительными вооружениями.

Россия не может не учитывать все эти факторы. Политика Соединённых Штатов направлена на подрыв национальной безопасности Российской Федерации, что противоречит принципам указанного договора, подписанного в 2010 году. Практически все направления генеральной политики США и Евросоюза в отношении нашего государства являются глубоко враждебными. Без изменения Вашингтоном такой политики любые наши шаги ему навстречу в контексте Договора СНВ-3 абсолютно исключены, подчеркнули в специально принятом заявлении российского внешнеполитического ведомства.

– Президент России в своём выступлении указал на то, что в США идёт разработка новых типов ядерных боеприпасов. Что вы можете сказать в этой связи?

– Прежде всего хотелось бы подчеркнуть, что США приняли обширную программу модернизации своих СНВ. В частности, ею предусмотрено, что после глубокой модернизации стратегические бомбардировщики B-52 будут сохранены в строю по крайней мере до 2050 года. Их будут использовать для запуска современных и перспективных ядерных ракет большой дальности, включая гиперзвуковые.

В декабре прошлого года был также продемонстрирован новейший малозаметный стратегический бомбардировщик B-21 Raider, способный нести ядерное оружие. Он будет принят на вооружение в 2025 году и заменит нынешние стратегические бомбардировщики-«невидимки» B-2A Spirit. Всего будет закуплено как минимум 100 новых самолётов.

Для авиации будут разработаны новые ядерные боезаряды, способные поражать хорошо укреплённые и подземные объекты. Одним из них станет управляемая термоядерная бомба с изменяемой мощностью B61-12. Она также будет размещена и на американских базах в Европе. Под такую авиабомбу разработан тактический истребитель F-35, который стал поступать на вооружение многих стран – членов НАТО.

Для ВМС США построят не менее 12 стратегических подводных ракетоносцев типа «Колумбия», которые начиная с 2031 года придут на замену сегодняшним ПЛАРБ типа «Огайо. Они будут оснащены ракетами «Трайдент-2», которые получат модернизированные бое­головки W88 Alt 370 мощностью 470 килотонн. Также начаты НИОКР по созданию боеголовки W93, которая заменит W76 и W88.

Действующие наземные шахтные «Минитмен-3» заменят на новые ракеты LGM-35A Sentinel («Страж») с боеголовками типа W87-0 и W87-1 (второй вариант появится, если разработка первого задержится).

Следует также отметить, что 9 февраля 2023 года национальное управление по ядерной безопасности США объявило о запуске проекта Los Alamos Plutonium Pit Production Project (LAP4) по производству плутониевых сердечников. Они являются важнейшим компонентом американского ядерного оружия. Эти сердечники действуют как спусковой крючок: при детонации плутоний вызывает небольшую ядерную реакцию, провоцируя более крупный вторичный взрыв основного ядерного заряда. Намечено создать необходимую инфраструктуру в Лос-Аламосской национальной лаборатории, что позволит производить до 30 таких резервных сердечников в год. Кроме того, планируется перепрофилировать бывший завод по производству смешанного оксидного топлива в Саванна-Ривер (Южная Каролина) для производства ежегодно не менее 50 подобных сердечников.

– Что имеется в виду, когда утверждается, что американцы перестали учитывать «свыше ста своих носителей СНВ» в списке их лимитов?

– Они произвольно вывели из-под действия договора 101 единицу стратегических наступательных вооружений под предлогом их «переоборудования». Речь идёт о 56 БРПЛ, 41 тяжёлом бомбардировщике и четырёх МБР наземного базирования, которые они объявили «учебными». Но у России нет уверенности в том, что эти системы не будут вновь трансформированы под ядерные задачи. Американцы также отказываются открывать для российских инспекторов верхние крышки носителей отдельных видов СНВ с целью сокрытия реального количества размещённых в них ядерных боезарядов. Всё это – нарушение Договора СНВ-3.

– Насколько реально возобновление Вашингтоном подземных ядерных испытаний?

– Вполне. США не ратифицировали Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний, готовый к подписанию ещё с 1996 года. И не пытаются сделать это. Этот договор не действует, так как его не ратифицировали несколько государств, в том числе и США, без чего он не может вступить в силу. Россия ратифицировала его в 2000 году. Здесь надо учитывать, что ещё действует международный договор 1963 года, который запрещает испытания ядерного оружия в трёх средах: в космическом пространстве, в атмосфере и под водой.

Тем временем в США значительно активизировались дискуссии о возобновлении натурных ядерных тестов. В этой связи Владимир Путин в своём послании подчеркнул, что если США возобновят ядерные испытания, то возобновим их и мы.

– А что вы можете сказать о ядерном потенциале Великобритании и Франции?

– Считается, что Великобритания располагает 225 термоядерными боеголовками, из них 160 находятся на боевом дежурстве. Их основные носители – четыре ПЛАРБ типа «Вэнгард», каждая из которых имеет по 16 ракет «Трайдент-2». Их предполагается заменить на новые субмарины типа «Дредноут».

В свою очередь, Франция обладает 384 стратегическими ядерными боезарядами. 300 из них размещены на четырёх ПЛАРБ типа Triomphant. Военно-воздушная часть ядерного потенциала Франции состоит из крылатых ракет средней дальности ASMPA с ядерной боеголовкой TNA. Их носителями являются в основном многоцелевые истребители «Рафаль».

Здесь надо добавить, что США, Великобритания и Франция имеют согласованные планы по развёртыванию своих ракетно-ядерных вооружений в Мировом океане. Все три ядерные державы также направляют свои самолёты «двойного назначения» для участия в операции ВВС НАТО под названием «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование». Она осуществляется с 2004 года в небе Латвии, Литвы, Эстонии и Польши. Для нас небезразлично, что такие авиационные средства могут нести на борту как обычные, так и ядерные авиабомбы.

– В чём именно заключается приостановление участия России в Договоре СНВ-3? Ведь оно в нём не предусматривается, говорится лишь о возможности полного выхода из него.

– Вы правы. Такая возможность предусмотрена в его статье XIV. Там записано, что из договора можно только выйти совсем, если одна из сторон решит, что исключительные обстоятельства, связанные с его содержанием, поставили под угрозу её высшие интересы. Если бы мы сейчас вышли из этого договорного акта, то он перестал бы действовать для нас в полном объёме. И в случае принятия решения о его возобновлении нам бы пришлось разрабатывать его заново, а этот процесс традиционно занимает продолжительный период времени.

Принимая решение о введении моратория на своё участия в нём, российская сторона исходила из Федерального закона № 101-ФЗ «О международных договорах Российской Федерации» от 15 июля 1995 года, который однозначно позволяет сделать это. В частности, речь идёт о пункте 4 статьи 37. Да и упоминавшаяся статья XIV Договора СНВ-3 вполне может быть применима к возникшей ситуации. Имею в виду положение об исключительных обстоятельствах, которые поставили под угрозу высшие российские интересы.

Все названные выше негативные для нас обстоятельства – реальные. Они также являются существенными и значительными как по своим масштабам, так и по своим стратегическим последствиям для национальной обороны и национальной безопасности России.

– Прекратит ли Россия полностью или частично соблюдать разрешительные положения Договора СНВ-3?

– Часть обязательств для нас приостанавливается, а часть сохраняется. Прекращается практика проведения взаимных инспекций «на местах», где размещаются традиционные ракетно-ядерные триады СНВ, на территориях договаривающих сторон – максимально до 18 инспекций в год. Их не будет. Из Послания Президента от 21 февраля также вытекает, что российская сторона приостанавливает и демонстрационные показы своих СНВ, в особенности их новейших перспективных образцов. Они нам ещё пригодятся. Да и американцы ничего нового из своих СНВ нам не показывают.

С другой стороны, в МИД и Министерстве обороны России уточнили, что, несмотря на решение о приостановке своего участия в договоре, до окончания срока его действия, то есть до 5 февраля 2026 года, наша страна продолжит соблюдать предусмотренные договором количественные ограничения на национальные СНВ. То есть не будет превышать установленные им следующие лимиты для каждой стороны: по 1550 единиц стратегических ядерных боезарядов и по 800 оперативно развёрнутых и оперативно неразвёрнутых стратегических носителей, описанных в договоре. Ясно, что это будет происходить на основе взаимности с Соединёнными Штатами, а не автоматически и не в одностороннем порядке с нашей стороны. Такое положение оставлено в силе с целью недопущения гонки ядерных СНВ.

Помимо этого, российская сторона будет и далее участвовать в обмене с Вашингтоном уведомлениями о пусках МБР и БРПЛ на основе соответствующего соглашения между СССР и США 1988 года. Разумеется, также исключительно на основе взаимности и паритета. Это положение позволяет сторонам заранее знать, что запущенная чужая МБР и БРПЛ является испытательной, а не предвестником начала ракетно-ядерной войны.

– Какова первоначальная реакция трёх ядерных держав НАТО на российский мораторий по Договору СНВ-3?

– Пока неконструктивная. И весьма краткая, с выражением озабоченностей. США, например, выразили сожаление по этому поводу, но ничего конструктивного не предложили взамен, кроме желания, чтобы Россия стала вновь полностью выполнять договор. Если они остановятся на этом, то надо понимать, что США не собираются выводить на свою территорию собственное тактическое ядерное оружие из Европы и Азии, не намерены обсуждать с нами вопросы об ограничении своей глобальной системы ПРО и о неразмещении в космическом пространстве ударных вооружений.

Великобритания и Франция вообще отказались учитывать их ядерные арсеналы в договорах, касающихся СНВ, в том числе и в новом договоре СНВ-4, если он будет разрабатываться. Их же учёт в Договоре СНВ-3 невозможен. Он заключён нами только с американской стороной. При этом они, Лондон и Париж, подчеркну это особо, придерживаются стратегии нанесения первого ядерного удара по России, так же как и Вашингтон.

– Возможно ли возвращение России к выполнению всех положений Договора СНВ-3?

– В своём заявлении от 21 февраля МИД России отметил, что национальное решение о приостановке нашего участия в Договоре СНВ-3 является обратимым, но на определённых условиях. Наше внешнеполитическое ведомство призвало Вашингтон предпринять добросовестные усилия в целях общей деэскалации ситуации и создания условий для возобновления полноформатного функционирования договора. Пресс-секретарь Президента России Дмитрий Песков, в свою очередь, подчеркнул, что всё будет зависеть от позиции Запада и его готовности принять во внимание озабоченность Москвы, в том числе в связи с вовлечением НАТО в конфликт на Украине.

Москва видит возможность восстановления этого договорного акта в прежнем виде, но это будет целиком и полностью зависеть от поведения США на международной арене вообще, а также в ракетно-ядерной, противоракетной и военно-космической сферах в частности. Право возобновить его действие остаётся за Президентом России.

Если Вашингтон не сделает ничего для восстановления жизнеспособности Договора СНВ-3, то вполне очевидно, что Россия примет дополнительные меры для укрепления стратегического баланса в мире и собственной национальной безопасности. Немаловажно, что и без этого договора Россия в состоянии достаточно надёжно отслеживать его выполнение или невыполнение Соединёнными Штатами с помощью национальных технических средств контроля.

Без полного выполнения всех положений этого договора американской стороной и без занятия Вашингтоном конструктивной позиции по целому ряду проблем, которые изложены ранее и которые составляют основу стратегической стабильности, на мой взгляд, не имеет никакого смысла обсуждать и основные принципы потенциально возможного договора СНВ-4.

Беседовал Владимир Кузарь, Источник: «Красная звезда»

 

 

 

 

Россия проводит спецоперацию на Украине

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “Лабиринт Карнаухова” на канале “Соловьёв Live”.

Проблематика отношений России и НАТО, а также ситуации на Украине.

Эфир от 16 мая 2023г.

С «ядерной дубинкой» наперевес

Новая доктрина Трампа ведёт к подрыву стратегической стабильности

Военно-политическое руководство США опубликовало новую ядерную доктрину, получившую название «Обзор ядерной политики». На ста страницах излагаются конкретные установки на масштабное развитие американских ракетно-ядерных сил стратегического и тактического назначения на длительную перспективу.

С агрессивным зарядом

В структурном плане новая установка имеет предисловие, краткое изложение документа и разделы, в которых содержатся оценки общемировой военно-политической ситуации, отражены роль и место ядерного оружия в военной политике страны, описаны основания для применения ракетно-ядерного оружия и перспективы модернизации ядерных арсеналов стратегического и тактического назначения, оговорены методы противодействия ядерному терроризму. Есть в ней и изложение общих подходов к проблематике ядерного нераспространения и контроля над ракетно-ядерными вооружениями.

Новая ядерная доктринальная установка во многом отличается от предыдущей, которая была принята Бараком Обамой в 2010 году, и по структуре, и по основным идеям. В частности, она значительно повышает роль и значение применения ядерного оружия в американской военной политике. Документ несёт более агрессивный и наступательный заряд, ведущий к радикальному подрыву глобальной стратегической стабильности в целом и к дальнейшему осложнению отношений с Российской Федерацией и Китайской Народной Республикой, а также с КНДР и Ираном. Так, Северная Корея традиционно обвинена в наращивании ракетно-ядерного арсенала, а Иран – в неких «ядерных амбициях, вызывающих озабоченность».

Что касается России и Китая, то Вашингтон обвиняет их в совершенствовании национального ядерного потенциала и средств ПРО, хотя это делается ими только в ответ на ракетно-ядерные приготовления США. Российской стороне одновременно приписывается некая доктрина «эскалации» применения ядерного оружия или его применение в первом ударе с целью «деэскалации» вооружённых конфликтов. И это при том, что в прежних ядерных доктринах Советского Союза и России, а также в ныне действующей российской ядерной доктрине нет и в помине такого положения.

Размытые основания для применения

Обновлённая ядерная доктрина делает акцент на одномоментном решении двух ключевых задач: ориентирует на глубокую модернизацию стратегического и тактического ядерного потенциала Соединённых Штатов в долговременной перспективе и в то же самое время понижает порог применения ядерного оружия американским военно-политическим руководством.

В частности, оно считает возможным его использование в ограниченных ядерных ударах с подрывом ядерных боезарядов малой мощности. К ним, например, относится перспективная ядерная авиабомба «В-61-12» с боезарядами 50, 10, 1,5 и 0,3 килотонны. Кроме того, в ближайшие два года запланировано оснащение ядерными боезарядами пониженной мощности БРПЛ «Трайдент-2 (D-5)», а впоследствии и новой ядерной крылатой ракеты морского базирования – пока без раскрытия минимальных пределов мощности их боезарядов.

Заявления Пентагона о том, что применение ядерных боезарядов малой мощности якобы несёт в себе некий «гуманитарный аспект», не отменяют представлений, что пониженные «пороговые условия» использования ядерных потенциалов могут привести к возникновению ракетно-ядерной войны даже в ходе небольших вооружённых конфликтов.

В одобренной стратегии зафиксировано, что Соединённые Штаты готовы рассматривать возможность использования ядерного оружия «в чрезвычайных обстоятельствах» с целью защиты жизненно важных национальных интересов страны.

Военно-политическую сердцевину новой ядерной установки составляет возможность инициативного применения ядерного оружия в первом ударе практически против любого государства мира. В том числе против тех, которые применят против США силы общего назначения, задействованные в любом, даже в небольшом, масштабе и с минимальными последствиями. В списке оснований для применения ядерных средств также значится нападение с использованием обычных вооружений против ядерных сил, объектов управления ими и средств предупреждения о ракетном нападении США и их союзников. Это подтвердил на брифинге, посвящённом публикации новой ядерной доктрины, заместитель министра обороны Патрик Шэнахан.

Во вступительной части к «Обзору ядерной политики», подписанной шефом Пентагона Джеймсом Мэттисом, появилась и формулировка, которая позволяет американскому президенту использовать ядерное оружие в случае «скоротечного изменения геополитической обстановки» и даже технологических «неожиданностей».

Размытость некоторых положений, подразумевающих явную свободу действий в использовании ракетно-ядерного оружия, говорит о безответственном подходе американской администрации к его применению – практически в любое время и в любом месте земного шара.

Все эти постулаты свидетельствуют о расширении круга обстоятельств и причин, которые могут вызвать приказ президента США о применении ядерного оружия в первом ударе. В данном контексте надо напомнить, что в прошлом году американский конгресс впервые за последние сорок с лишним лет обратил внимание на реальную возможность президента страны отдать единоличный и окончательный приказ о применении ядерного оружия против любого государства мира без санкции на это со стороны высшего законодательного органа и без объявления войны такому государству.

Ядерная стратегия Трампа подтверждает стратегию «расширенного ядерного сдерживания», которая предусматривает раскрытие американского «ядерного зонтика» над 32 государствами мира: 28 союзниками США по НАТО, а также над Японией, Южной Кореей, Австралией и Израилем. Кроме того, Пентагон сохранит двусторонние «соглашения о совместных ядерных миссиях» («соглашения о разделении ядерной ответственности») с большой группой своих неядерных союзников по трансатлантическому альянсу, которые предусматривают проведение учений по доставке ядерного оружия и проведение учебных ядерных бомбометаний с использованием авиации неядерных государств и их участие в планировании применения американского ядерного оружия.

Таким образом, ядерная доктрина от 2 февраля сохраняет в целом установку на «безусловное наступательное ядерное сдерживание», которое ранее провозглашалось предыдущими американскими президентами, но подводит под неё глубокую модернизацию всего ракетно-ядерного арсенала страны.

Перспективы создания новой стратегической ядерной триады

Принятая в феврале ядерная стратегия определяет, что материально-техническую основу вновь создаваемой стратегической ядерной триады составят 400 моноблочных МБР наземного базирования, предположительно под названием «Минитмен-4», первая из которых появится в 2029 году. Для их размещения будет оставлено повышенное количество шахтных пусковых установок (450), что позволит рассредоточить этот компонент стратегических ядерных сил и создать до 50 ложных шахт под такие ракеты.

В такую триаду также войдут на начальном этапе до 240 БРПЛ «Трайдент-2 (D-5)», установленные на 12 ПЛАРБ класса «Колумбия» с большим водоизмещением по сравнению с ПЛАРБ класса «Огайо», соответственно 21 тысяча тонн против около 19 тысяч тонн. Впоследствии названные БРПЛ будут заменены на новые типы. Первая атомная субмарина нового класса должна выйти на боевое патрулирование в 2031 году.

Третьим элементом обновлённой триады станут 60 тяжёлых бомбардировщиков типа В-21 «Рейдер» с ядерными крылатыми ракетами воздушного базирования и корректируемыми ядерными авиабомбами. Первый такой бомбардировщик должен быть создан в 2025 году. Впоследствии на этих бомбардировщиках будет размещена новая крылатая ракета повышенной дальности с ядерным боезарядом.

Кроме того, новую стратегическую ядерную триаду усилит неназванное количество бомбардировщиков средней дальности двойного назначения, то есть способных нести авиабомбы в ядерном или неядерном снаряжении. Основу последних составят уже поступающие в ВВС новые многофункциональные истребители F-35 передового наземного и авианосного базирования.

Новая ядерная доктрина США уже подверглась резкой критике в КНР и России. Как было отмечено в комментарии Департамента информации и печати МИД Российской Федерации, введённая в действие новая ядерная доктрина Соединённых Штатов имеет «конфронтационный заряд и антироссийскую направленность». В этой связи было чётко заявлено, что российской стороне придётся учитывать подходы в области ядерной политики, введённые в оборот Вашингтоном, и принимать необходимые меры по обеспечению национальной безопасности.

В складывающейся обстановке своевременное решение российского военно-политического руководства о совершенствовании различных видов вооружений России в интересах защиты её территории, а также территории её союзников и друзей является логическим, адекватным и обоснованным ответным шагом.

Автор:  Владимир Козин – ведущий эксперт Центра военно- политических исследований МГИМО МИД России

Источник: “Красная звезда”

С больной головы на здоровую

Несколько американских сетевых интернет-изданий с подачи ряда сенаторов, неадекватно, мягко говоря, настроенных к России, вновь подняли шумиху о «нарушениях» нашей страной бессрочного Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (Договор о РСМД), подписанного более четверти века назад -  7 декабря 1987 года между СССР и США.

Как известно, все баллистические и крылатые ракеты наземного базирования и их пусковые установки, упомянутые в этом договорном акте, были полностью ликвидированы сторонами в 1991 году. Об этом свидетельствуют и специальные ежегодные доклады американского внешнеполитического ведомства под названием «Приверженность и выполнение договоров по контролю над вооружениями, нераспространению, а также соглашений по разоружению и обязательств по ним», которые были опубликованы в 2001, 2005, 2010, 2011, 2012 и 2013 годах. Эти доклады - важный официальный источник позиции Вашингтона по проверке соблюдения двусторонних и международных договоров в области контроля над вооружениями и разоружению. И ни в одном из них не было никаких официальных обвинений в адрес России в том, что она не выполняет положения названного договора.

Тем не менее, как утверждает вашингтонское сетевое интернет-издание «Дейли бист», «некоторые» американские эксперты считают, что под видом создания межконтинентальных баллистических ракет российские производители ракетного оружия разрабатывают ракеты средней дальности, что запрещено Договором о РСМД. Названный сетевик также сообщил, что данной теме был посвящён закрытый брифинг в сенатском комитете по иностранным делам, который провели 27 ноября прошлого года для американских законодателей исполняющая обязанности заместителя госсекретаря США по контролю над вооружениями и международной безопасности Роуз Гётемюллер (по версии ряда источников в следующем году она заменит нынешнего посла США в Москве) и заместитель министра обороны по глобальным стратегическим вопросам Мадлен Кридон. Обе дамы широко известны как сторонницы доминирования Соединённых Штатов в военной области, выступающие за достижение преимуществ в пользу Вашингтона на переговорах по контролю над вооружениями.

А в июне 2012 года сенатор-республиканец Майкл Тернер обратился с письмом к высокопоставленным представителям совета национальной безопасности и руководству разведывательного сообщества США с вопросом: не представляют ли испытания стратегических ракет, проводимые Москвой, нарушений договора 1987 года? Отвечая ему 3 августа того же года, заместитель министра обороны США Джеймс Миллер указал, что испытания российских МБР в 2012 году «не подпадают ни под какие положения или ограничения, предусмотренные Договором о сокращении ракет средней и меньшей дальности».

Наконец, недавно группа из десяти американских сенаторов от Республиканской партии, и прежде беспокоивших президента Барака Обаму по поводу «нарушений» Россией положений Договора о РСМД, разработала поправку в законопроект о военных расходах Пентагона на 2014 финансовый год. В соответствии с ней нынешняя американская администрация должна представить в конгресс доклад с изложением разведданных, имеющихся у НАТО и у входящих в этот альянс государств, по вопросу выполнения российской стороной положений Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности.

Комментируя эти «псевдоозабоченные» высказывания сенаторов, американский эксперт Джош Рогин в одном из своих ноябрьских комментариев дал несколько пояснений. Согласно им сенаторы обвиняют российскую сторону в том, что она якобы испытала и планирует продолжать испытания двух типов баллистических ракет межконтинентальной дальности: мобильную МБР наземного базирования СС-25 (известную у нас как РС-12М, или «Тополь-М») и новую МБР РС-26 (известную как МБР «Рубеж»). Однако обе МБР не относятся к ракетам «средней и меньшей дальности», так как в соответствии с терминологическими определениями Договора о РСМД к таковым причисляются только ракеты, имеющие дальность полёта 1.000 - 5.500 км и 500 -1.000 км соответственно.

Разрабатываемая же в России стратегическая МБР РС-26 относится к классу межконтинентальных, так как имеет дальность стрельбы свыше 10 тыс. км, и её создание не противоречит ни советско-американскому Договору о РСМД, ни российско-американскому Договору СНВ-3. Как заявил на прошлой неделе информагентству «Интерфакс» бывший начальник Главного штаба РВСН генерал-полковник Виктор Есин, Россия своевременно уведомила американскую сторону о работах по модернизации МБР РС-24 в вариант, который получил название РС-26, что полностью вписывается в положения Договора СНВ-3.

В этой связи возникает вопрос, зачем же потребовалось Соединённым Штатам поднимать на уровне ряда законодателей шумиху вокруг соблюдения Договора о РСМД? На наш взгляд, в ней просматриваются два ключевых мотива: один внутреннего, а другой внешнего свойства.

Мотив группы американских сенаторов внутреннего характера состоит в том, чтобы с помощью информационно-пропагандистских средств обеспечить отвлекающий манёвр от испытаний новейших ударно-боевых систем ПРО США. В ходе этих испытаний перехватываются, как это периодически признаётся высокопоставленными представителями Пентагона на слушаниях в американском конгрессе, баллистические и крылатые ракеты-мишени средней дальности. Напомним, что с 2001 года Пентагон провёл к настоящему времени в общей сложности 80 таких испытаний.

Кстати говоря, для сокрытия деталей проводимых испытаний американских противоракетных систем министерство обороны и государственный департамент США придумали специальный термин «ракеты промежуточной дальности», которые, согласно американским данным, имеют минимальную дальность 3.000 км и максимальную - 5.500 км. То есть, испытывая системы перехвата баллистических и крылатых ракет «промежуточной» дальности, американская сторона нарушает Договор о РСМД, так как дальность стрельбы этих ракет на 55% совпадает с дальностью полёта ракет средней дальности.

Второй внутренний мотив американских законодателей-республиканцев заключается в их стремлении оказать дополнительное давление на Барака Обаму путём предъявления ему требований «выявить нарушения» Россией Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности. Такой интерес продиктован твёрдым желанием оппозиционной Республиканской партии набрать как можно больше компромата на нынешнего хозяина Белого дома за то, что он «не выявил нарушений» российской стороны применительно к данному договорному акту, и соответственно поспособствовать победе кандидату-республиканцу на очередных президентских выборах в США, которые пройдут в конце 2016 года.

Мотивы сенаторов-республиканцев, имеющие внешнее измерение, заключаются в том, чтобы любыми средствами не допустить появления у Российской Федерации высокоэффективных МБР и БРПЛ, которые смогли бы гарантированно преодолевать любую американо-натовскую систему ПРО: как неуклонно подбирающуюся к нашим рубежам, так и развёрнутую на континентальной части США.

Очередной пропагандистский выпад ряда американских законодателей в адрес МБР «Рубеж» как раз и вызван тем обстоятельством, что этот перспективный ракетный комплекс обладает существенно расширенными возможностями по преодолению американского «противоракетного щита». Он также имеет повышенные маневренные характеристики по сравнению с существующими системами, что значительно расширяет потенциал СЯС России по решению задач стратегического сдерживания комбинированной ракетно-ядерной и противоракетной угрозы со стороны Соединённых Штатов и Североатлантического союза в целом.

Стремясь избавиться от МБР «Рубеж», некоторые американские законодатели и пытаются с помощью сетевых ресурсов Всемирной паутины притянуть для этого в качестве пустого «основания» положения договора 1987 года, который к этой МБР вообще не имеет никакого отношения - ни прямого, ни косвенного.

Итак, не Российская Федерация, а именно Соединённые Штаты уже который раз нарушают положения Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, в частности одновременно используя баллистические и крылатые ракеты «средней» и «промежуточной дальности» в качестве мишеней для проверки эффективности их перехвата ударно-боевыми средствами ПРО. Москва уже неоднократно обращала внимание Вашингтона на эти обстоятельства, называя типы ракет, используемые в ходе проводимых испытаний. Но, к сожалению, американская сторона оставила все эти замечания российской стороны, подкреплённые реальными фактами, без должной реакции.

В данном контексте следует также указать, что подобные виды ракетных вооружений появляются у всё большего количества государств, в том числе у тех, которые расположены недалеко от территории Российской Федерации. Но ситуация такова, что никаких юридических препятствий к приобретению подобного оружия для них не существует. Во-первых, потому, что эти страны не являются участниками договора 1987 года. А во-вторых, до сих пор остаются нереализованными российская инициатива 2007 года о придании глобально-универсального характера обязательствам, содержавшимся в указанном договорном акте, российское предложение 2008 года о разработке юридически обязывающей договорённости о ликвидации РСМД в целом, а также об отказе от проведения лётных испытаний этих видов вооружений. В частности, последнее внешнеполитическое предложение было изложено российской стороной на Женевской конференции по разоружению в виде проекта «Основные элементы международно-правовой договорённости о ликвидации ракет средней дальности и меньшей дальности (наземного базирования), открытой для широкого международного присоединения».

Таким образом, у Москвы есть два стратегически значимых основания для выхода из договора 1987 года: во-первых, его многочисленные нарушения со стороны США и, во-вторых, по той причине, что ракеты «средней и меньшей дальности» производятся в целом ряде стран. Возможность выхода из договора предусмотрена пунктом 2 статьи XV договорного акта 1987 года, который закрепляет такое право за любой стороной, если она решит, что связанные с его содержанием «исключительные обстоятельства поставили под угрозу её высшие интересы». В этом случае такая сторона уведомляет другую договаривающуюся сторону о принятом ею решении за шесть месяцев до выхода.

Как известно, в 2002 году Вашингтон вышел из Договора по ПРО, когда посчитал, что он не отвечает американским национальным интересам. А разве у России не могут быть свои собственные национальные интересы в сфере обороны и безопасности? Однозначно могут. Они также существуют и должны энергично отстаиваться, несмотря на возражения или голословные утверждения некоторых американских сенаторов.

Автор: Владимир Козин, главный советник-руководитель Группы советников директора Российского института стратегических исследований, член-корреспондент РАЕН
Источник: Красная звезда 04.12.2013

С миру по сливу

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "Специальный репортаж" на телеканале "Звезда".

Кто принял участие в публикации ответов США и НАТО по гарантиям безопасности? Почему теперь Вашингтон и Брюссель обвиняют РФ в подрыве доверительных отношений? И о чем они все же готовы договариваться с Москвой?

Испанская газета El Pais напечатала слитые ей ответы США и НАТО по гарантиям безопасности России. Эта публикация вызвала взрыв возмущения в США и НАТО. Ведь Вашингтон настоятельно просил не придавать гласности свой ответ. И Москва пошла навстречу этой просьбе, однако, ответы все же просочились в СМИ.

Эфир от 8 февраля 2022г.

СОХРАНИТСЯ ЛИ ДОГОВОР О ЛИКВИДАЦИИ РСМД? К 30-ЛЕТИЮ ДОГОВОРА

30 лет назад, 8 декабря 1987 года в Вашингтоне руководители СССР Михаил Горбачев и США Рональд Рейган подписали бессрочный «Договор между Союзом Советских Социалистических Республик и Соединенными Штатами Америки о ликвидации их ракет средней дальности и меньшей дальности»

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США вновь испытали ракету-перехватчик новой модификации. Но безуспешно.

 

В этой связи обращает на себя внимание несколько обстоятельств.

Действительно: не все испытания системы ПРО США завершаются успехом. Имеются и неудачи при тестировании различных типов американских противоракетных систем. Так, стратегическая система ПРО наземного континентального базирования пока показала 48% неудачных перехватов, а система «Иджис» морского и наземного базирования – 18%. Лишь боевая информационно-управляющая система ТХААД, то есть система перехвата ракет на большой высоте и на заключительной фазе их полета, пока держит высокую планку тестовой эффективности: из 15 проведенных пусков ее противоракет все 15 оказались успешными.

Испытание ракеты-перехватчика в районе Гавайских островов, проведенное 31 января 2018 года по местному времени, о котором идет речь, имело ряд особенностей.

Была испытана новейшая ракета-перехватчик SM-3  модификации IIА (SM-3 Block IIA), что свидетельствует о переходе Пентагона на более эффективные системы перехвата баллистических и крылатых ракет, то есть такие ракеты-перехватчики, которые имеют большую дальность полета, повышенную скорость и точность наведения. Эта ракета-перехватчик была запущена не с боевого корабля, а с комплекса ПРО «Иджис» наземного базирования, развернутого на полигоне Кауи, Гавайские острова. Точно такой же комплекс «Иджис» уже развернут в Румынии и в конце этого года он будет поставлен на боевое дежурство в Польше.

Проведенное испытание стало таким образом третьей по счету попыткой перехвата учебной баллистической ракеты с использованием новейшей ракеты-перехватчика SM-3  модификации IIА, производимой Соединенными Штатами совместно с Японией. Первый раз подобный эксперимент состоялся в феврале прошлого года, когда в качестве перехватываемой цели была использована баллистическая ракета средней дальности. Это испытание оказалось успешным. Но вторая попытка перехвата баллистической ракеты, состоявшаяся в июне 2017 года с применением аналогичной противоракеты, провалилась по непредвиденной причине: оператор по ошибке нажал кнопку самоликвидации ракеты-перехватчика.

По оценке авторитетного американского журнала «Армс контрол тудэй», ракета-перехватчик SM-3  модификации IIА является «ключевым стержнем» в системе ПРО США; она будет развернута в Европе, Азии и на континентальной территории Соединенных Штатов.

Если анализировать усилия американской стороны по усилению своего противоракетного потенциала, то следует сделать однозначный вывод: администрация президента Дональда Трампа взяла твердый курс как на увеличение количества ракет-перехватчиков системы ПРО, так и на повышение их тактико-технических характеристик.

Как показывают недавно обнародованная Стратегия национальной безопасности США, Вашингтон полон решимости продолжать наращивать свои противоракетные потенциалы в глобальном масштабе. Нынешней администрацией уже открыто признается возможность использования глобальной системы ПРО не только против Северной Кореи и Ирана, что неоднократно заявлялось ранее, но и против России и КНР. Установка на дальнейшее бесконтрольное развитие американского «противоракетного щита» в глобальном масштабе будет отражена в актуализированном «Обзоре по ПРО», который должен быть утвержден военно-политическим руководством страны в текущем году.

Есть и еще одна особенность проведенного испытания «31 января», на которую не обратили внимание западные эксперты: при тестировании противоракеты SM-3  модификации IIА в качестве ракеты-мишени была использована баллистическая ракета средней дальности воздушного базирования, которая, если абстрагироваться от способа ее запуска, по дальности стрельбы подпадает под ограничения на ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, введенные бессрочным советско-американским Договором 1987 года о ликвидации названных ракет.

Если учесть испытание от 31 января, то необходимо отметить, что, начиная с 2001 года, США уже 93 раза нарушили этот договор, используя в качестве учебных ракетных мишеней ракеты, запрещенные названным договором. В то же самое время Россия ни раза не нарушила этот важный договорный акт.

Опасность бесконтрольного наращивания количества ракет-перехватчиков США заключается в том, что их растущее  количество относительно носителей стратегического ядерного оружия России и КНР может подорвать стратегическую стабильность в мире, когда государство-инициатор нанесения первого ядерного удара может прикрыться от ответного ракетно-ядерного удара с помощью постоянно и бесконтрольно наращиваемого плотного частокола ракет-перехватчиков.

В этой связи возникают большие сомнения в целесообразности продления срока действия Договора СНВ-3 до 2026 года или разработки нового Договора СНВ-4 с Соединенными Штатами, которые явно будут стремиться к созданию резкого дисбаланса между оборонительными и наступательными вооружениями в свою пользу. Нельзя также абстрагироваться от модернизации запасов тактического ядерного оружия США, развернутого в Европе, а также от целого ряда других нерешенных вопросов в сфере контроля над вооружениями.

Результатом всего этого может стать нарушение глобальной стратегической стабильности и подрыв национальной безопасности Российской Федерации.

Автор: Владимир Козин – профессор Академии военных наук, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России

США выделяют огромные средства на развитие ракетно-ядерного «трезубца»

Вышедший в январе этого года доклад Бюджетного управления Конгресса  США предусматривает резкое увеличение ассигнований на последующее развитие стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений до 2028 года. В чем заключаются особенности этого доклада? Насколько это решение повлияет на стратегическую стабильность в мире? Какова может быть реакция России на подобное явление?

Комментирует ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО Владимир Козин.

 

США готовятся принять на вооружение запрещённые ракеты

Уже в августе США приступят к испытаниям вооружений, запрещённых Договором о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности. По сообщениям из Вашингтона, первой Пентагон испытает крылатую ракету наземного базирования дальностью около тысячи километров, а затем через несколько месяцев – баллистическую ракету дальностью от 4000 до 5500 км.

Эти сообщения ещё раз убедительно свидетельствуют о том, что Вашингтон давно готовился к денонсации Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД), который явно не устраивал американцев в их стремлении к обновлению ракетно-ядерного потенциала и усилению давления на государства, рассматриваемые ими как геополитические конкуренты. Ведь на разработку таких вооружений уходят годы, а порой и десятилетия. А тут не прошло и полгода после того, как Дональд Трамп заявил о намерениях выйти из договора, и уже США практически готовы к испытанию новых ракет.

Уже ни для кого не секрет, что американцы давно уже не соблюдают это соглашение. В качестве примера можно привести тот факт, что США в течение последних 20 лет, начиная с октября 1999 года, использовали 117 ракет средней и меньшей дальности в качестве ракет-мишеней при тестировании эффективности американской глобальной системы ПРО. При этом были задействованы шесть типов ракет-мишеней: Aries, GLCM-X, Hera, LRALT, MRT-1 и Storm-2. Все они однозначно запрещены ДРСМД.

Пойдя на слом договора, Вашингтон в качестве предлога обвинил в его нарушении Москву, пытаясь выставить себя в качестве «пострадавшей стороны». На днях официальный представитель министерства обороны США подполковник Мишель Балданза заявила, что в случае если Россия вернётся к полному и проверяемому соблюдению соглашения до окончания периода в шесть месяцев, то США отменят решение приостановить выполнение своих обязательств и выйти из договора. «Соединённые Штаты не предприняли никаких необратимых шагов на данном этапе», – уверяла представитель Пентагона.

При этом Балданза, отвечая на просьбу журналистов прокомментировать информацию о планах провести испытания двух ракет, запрещённых договором, утверждала, что США начали производство компонентов для обеспечения испытаний на стадии разработки неядерных ракет наземного базирования, используя для этого средства, выделенные конгрессом в 2019 финансовом году. То есть представитель Пентагона, по сути, признала, что ещё до официального объявления о выходе США из ДРСМД в американский бюджет были уже заложены средства на производство запрещённых ракет.

Ещё до официального объявления о выходе США из ДРСМД в американский бюджет уже были заложены средства на производство запрещённых им ракет.


«США отвергли все наши инициативы, нацеленные на урегулирование встречных претензий сторон в контексте выполнения Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД) через взаимные меры транспарентности. При этом отклонена была сама идея взаимности при осуществлении таких мер. Американская сторона не проявила какой-либо готовности к продолжению диалога, зациклилась на заведомо неприемлемом по форме и сути ультиматуме в наш адрес, добиваясь односторонних уступок с российской стороны. На уничтожение комплексов с нашей ракетой 9М729, которая без каких-либо на то оснований объявлена Вашингтоном противоречащей договору, мы пойти не можем.

Российские предложения по урегулированию ситуации остаются в силе. Но стучаться в закрытую дверь мы не будем.

Если США сохранят свою нынешнюю позицию по ДРСМД, то 2 августа он прекратит действие. Очевидно, что развал договора будет иметь самые негативные последствия для международной безопасности и стабильности. Может начаться многосторонняя гонка вооружений сразу в нескольких регионах; дальнейшей эрозии подвергнется система контроля над вооружениями. Это чревато серьёзными угрозами для устойчивости режима Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия (ДНЯО) и перспектив дальнейшего ядерного разоружения.

США ведут активную разработку новых ракетных систем средней дальности. Вынуждены готовиться к их потенциальному развёртыванию. При этом мы категорически не приемлем попыток извратить объективную логику поддержания военно-стратегического баланса и интерпретировать наши ответные шаги как ракетную угрозу со стороны России».

Из комментария Департамента информации и печати МИД России в связи с участием министра иностранных дел РФ С.В. Лаврова в сессии Конференции по разоружению, Женева, 20–21 марта 2019 года.


Так что не приходится сомневаться, что в ближайшее время эти ракеты появятся на вооружении США, а сейчас разрабатывается сценарий их эффективного применения. И вполне вероятно, что в нём будет предусмотрен вариант развёртывания ракет в ядерном оснащении. В ином качестве их боевая эффективность не слишком велика.

Кстати, в четверг председатель объединённого комитета начальников штабов вооружённых сил США генерал Джозеф Данфорд, выступая на слушаниях в сенате, заявил, что Вашингтон должен сохранить право на нанесение ядерного удара первым. По его словам, существует немало сценариев, при которых и сам конгресс будет рад тому, что у американского президента есть право нажать на «красную кнопку».

Такое мнение он высказал, комментируя законопроект, внесённый на рассмотрение конгресса демократами, в котором предлагается запретить Белому дому упреждать действия возможного противника нанесением ядерного удара.

Напомню, что в соответствии с новой «ядерной доктриной» 2018 года приняты решения по модернизации и усилению стратегической ядерной триады, развитию тактических и сверхмалых ядерных зарядов, а также по их размещению в Европе и в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе.

В России считают, что решение Пентагона провести испытания ракет средней и меньшей дальности – это ещё один шаг по пути демонтажа договорённостей в сфере ограничения ракетно-ядерных вооружений и создания новых вызовов международной безопасности.

Автор:  Владимир Козин  – ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России; Источник: “Красная звезда”

США значительно понизили порог применения ядерного оружия

Что это значит и возможно ли преодолеть это опасный феномен?

5 июня этого года  руководители России и КНР Владимир Путин и Си Цзиньпин приняли совместное заявление об укреплении глобальной стратегической стабильности в современную эпоху. В этом документе они обозначили различные факторы, которые подрывают глобальную стабильность и международную безопасность.

В частности, оба лидера придали большое значение проявлению сдержанности в области ракетно-ядерных вооружений всеми государствами, обладающими таким видом оружия массового уничтожения (ОМУ). Стороны особо отметили, что ядерным державам следует отказаться от менталитета «холодной войны» и «игр с нулевой суммой», уменьшить роль ядерного оружия в политике национальной безопасности, а также «на деле уменьшить угрозу ядерной войны».

Почему лидеры России и Китая сделали акцент именно на целесообразности уменьшения «угрозы ядерной войны»?

Он был сделан по той причине, что за последние полтора десятка лет такая угроза реально и основательно возросла. Это произошло в период президентства Барака Обамы, но в еще большей степени обозначилось при администрации президента Дональда Трампа, который вступил в должность в январе 2017 года.

Сравнительный анализ доктринальных положений, которые обосновывают применение ядерного оружия, например, у США и России, показывает следующую динамику потенциального использования этого вида ОМУ именно Вашингтоном. Причем, довольно опасную.

Если в ядерной стратегии Барака Обамы, одобренной в 2010 году, было шесть таких оснований для его применения, то в аналогичной стратегии Дональда Трампа, утвержденной в 2018 году, их стало уже 14. С другой стороны, в разделе ныне действующей Военной доктрины Российской Федерации, одобренной в 2014 году,  раздел, посвященный возможности применения ядерного оружия, имеет всего два положения. Это: применение против нее ОМУ, а также обычных видов вооружений, но с большой оговоркой, если в результате этого под угрозу будет поставлено само существование российского государства. Эти положения практически не меняются, переходя из доктрины в доктрину.

Как видно, общее количество ныне существующих американских установок на применение ракетно-ядерного оружия (14) более чем в два раза превосходят аналогичные установки, которые действовали в период президентства Барака Обамы и в семь раз превышают общее количество российских оснований.

Поэтому суждение о том, что Соединенные Штаты понизили порог применения ядерного оружия или, говоря иными словами, повысили возможности его применения, значительно возросли.

Но это не все. Существуют еще некоторые особенности проявления такого феномена.

Так, в ядерной стратегии Дональда Трампа возросло количество положений о применении ядерного оружия, которые позволяют Соединенным Штатам трактовать их в весьма свободной и произвольной форме из-за их неконкретного формулирования. В общей сложности из 14 положений этой категории восемь могут быть вольно интерпретированы. Например, американские ядерные силы могут нанести ядерный удар при появлении «технологических неожиданностей» или в случае появления «неопределенных вызовов». Но что это за «технологические неожиданности» или «неопределенные вызовы» ядерная стратегия США 2018 года нарочито умалчивает.

Другой особенностью нынешней американской ядерной стратегии является то, что она квалифицируется в целом как «безусловное наступательное ядерное сдерживание» и имеет широкий спектр стратегических установок различного содержания. Это «расширенное ядерное сдерживание», то есть раскрытие «ядерного зонтика над 32 государствами-членами НАТО и внеблоковыми союзниками США. Это «концепция «эскалация в целях деэскалации», то есть наращивание возможностей применения ядерного оружия с целью деэскалации конфликтов с применением обычных видов вооружений.

Американскую ядерную стратегию подкрепляют сохраняющиеся соглашения США «о разделении ядерной ответственности»(соглашения«о совместных ядерных миссиях»), то есть заключенные Вашингтоном соглашения о развертывании ядерного оружия и проведении учений с его условным применением со странами- членами НАТО, в том числе с теми, которые не имеют национального ядерного оружия. Важными элементами ядерной стратегии США является размещение их тактического ядерного оружия в Европе и в азиатской части Турции, а также круглосуточная и круглогодичная операция НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование»в воздушном пространстве трех государств Балтии с использованием самолетов «двойного назначения», которые могут нести на борту ядерное оружие.

Особенностью  понижения применения ядерного оружия США является также то, что в настоящее время в странах Североатлантического союза происходит трансформация военных учений. Если раньше такие учения с имитацией использования ядерных арсеналов и учения с задействованием обычных видов вооружений проводились отдельно, то в настоящее время учения с привлечением обычных вооружений, как правило, завершаются с условным применением ядерных средств.

Особенностью реализации ядерной стратегии США является также то, что все американские президенты имеют единоличное право применения ядерного оружия в первом «превентивном и упреждающем ударе», то есть располагают возможностью использовать ядерное оружие любого вида, то есть стратегическое и тактическое, исключительно по своему усмотрению, без согласования с американским Конгрессом и без объявления войны какому-то государству или группе государств, в отношении которых такое оружие будет применено.

Порог применения американского ракетно-ядерного оружия понижается еще и тем, что Вашингтон до сих пор придерживается крайне опасной концепции «запуск по предупреждению» («launch-on-warning»), которая предусматривает применение ядерного оружия практически сразу после получения сигнала о запуске МБР или БРПЛ другим государством, то есть тогда, когда его ядерные боевые блоки еще не достигли американской территории. Но в такой концепции кроется возможность случайного и непреднамеренного применения ядерного оружия или его применения в результате ошибочного восприятия запущенной извне ракеты с обычным боезарядом и не направленной на территорию США.

Порог применения американского ракетно-ядерного оружия понижен тем фактором, что ядерные силы США могут применять ядерные боезаряды «малой мощности», то есть с мощностью от 5 килотонн и ниже, что примерно в три раза меньше ядерного боезаряда авиабомбы, сброшенной американцами на Хиросиму. Использование таких боезарядов обосновывается в американском военно-политическом руководстве некими «гуманитарными» мотивами, мол, в результате их применения произойдет меньшее радиоактивное заражение местности, чем в случае использования ядерных боезарядов большой мощности. Выглядит зловеще.

Повышению возможностей применения ядерного оружия явно будет способствовать возможность возобновления ядерных испытаний американской стороной на полигоне в штате Невада. Такой шаг предусматривается в ядерной доктрине Дональда Трампа, которая исключает возможность ратификации Вашингтоном Договора о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний и одновременно обозначает вероятность возобновления подземных ядерных испытаний.

Вызывает глубокое разочарование, что Вашингтон отверг весьма простое предложение Москвы вновь повторить простую и понятную всем формулировку времен СССР и США о том, что ядерная война не может быть развязана, поскольку в ней не будет победителей. Симптоматично в этом же контексте, что Соединенные Штаты категорически не хотят брать на себя обязательство не применять ядерное оружие в первом ударе или не применять его вообще.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: InfoRos

США и НАТО: бегство, недостойное великих держав

Бежав из Кабула, «рэмбы» от войны и политики США попытаются теперь переложить ответственность за провал 20-летнего американского и их союзников военного присутствия в Афганистане на движение «Талибан», а также на государства региона, которым придётся иметь дело с последствиями этой длительной вооружённой кампании

В 23 часа 59 минут по кабульскому времени 31 августа 2021 года, то есть за минуту до окончания крайнего срока вывода оставшихся в Кабульском аэропорту последний американский военнослужащий покинул территорию Афганистана.

Это был командующий усечённым американским воинским контингентом в Кабуле в виде частей 82-й дивизии ВДВ США, охранявших столичный международный аэропорт, генерал-майор Крис Донахью, который поднялся на борт военно-транспортного самолёта C-17. Вместе с ним страну покинул и посол США в Кабуле Росс Уилсон. Так завершилась 20-летняя оккупация страны «гор и легенд» коалиционными вооружёнными силами США и НАТО.

«Сокрушимая несвобода освободителей»

Позорным бегством американской армии из Афганистана закончилась навязанная Вашингтоном эта длительная трагическая и опустошительная для афганского народа война, которая продолжалась с 7 октября 2001 года по 31 августа этого года. Став самой затяжной по времени войной за пределами США и НАТО после окончания Второй мировой войны, в пять раз превысив продолжительность последней, эта агрессия также стала дольше «грязной» войны Соединённых Штатов во Вьетнаме, которая продолжалась 18 лет.

Натовская оккупация суверенного Афганистана - полноправного члена ООН и Движения неприсоединения, - как известно, проходила под многообещающим кодовым названием: «Несокрушимая свобода», а сам многонациональный воинский контингент вторжения получил безобидное название «Международные силы содействия безопасности» (МССБ), которое впоследствии было заменено на «Решительная поддержка».

Утверждая название силовой операции как «Несокрушимая свобода», вооружённая западная коалиция вкладывала в него особый смысл: мол, никто не сможет победить её многочисленную военную группировку, в которой только Пентагон однажды максимально имел до 100 тысяч человек, а тем более подкреплённую контингентами союзников по НАТО и внеблоковыми партнёрами из 48 государств, которые направили туда в общей сложности ещё до 60 тысяч военнослужащих. По данным Министерства обороны США, за последние два десятилетия через Афганистан прошли свыше 800 тыс. американских военных и 25 тысяч гражданских лиц.

Включая в название этой силовой операции столь крылатое слово «свобода», трансатлантический альянс был уверен, что в результате её проведения граждане Афганистана гарантированно получат доселе невиданную ими свободу.

США и НАТО просчитались в обоих случаях. В конечном счёте вышло наоборот.

«Несокрушимая свобода» превратилась в «сокрушимую несвободу». «Сокрушимую» как негативное последствие для оккупационных сил МССБ, которые бежали с позором, побросав практически всю военную технику и боеприпасы. А провозглашенная «свобода» на деле оказалось для афганцев полной несвободой.

Опиумные итоги оккупации Афганистана

К этим явлениям добавились: падение промышленного и сельскохозяйственного производства; безработица и обнищание граждан при одновременном снижения численности их трудоспособной части, в особенности среди мужского населения, ушедшего воевать с оккупантами; появления новой волны беженцев и внутренне перемещённых лиц; резкое увеличение объёмов производства опийного мака, из которого получают героиновое зелье, а также масштабная коррупция во всех эшелонах власти. Добавился и ещё весьма существенный фактор: отсутствие стабильности и безопасности практически во всех провинциях Афганистана.

Обозначился и ещё один зловещий военный итог: в результате военных действий западной коалиции появилось огромное количество жертв среди мирных граждан Афганистана в результате несоизмеримого применения силы со стороны МССБ, произвольного минирования ими транспортных путей и нанесения целенаправленных ударов по явно мирным группам людей - свадебным процессиям, торговым караванам и населённым пунктам, где не было военных объектов движения «Талибан»* (террористическая организация, запрещенная в РФ), и даже по реально существующим больницам и школам.

Количество жертв среди женщин Афганистана за 2009-2020 годы.

Цифры и факты

По данным ООН, в пламени «Несокрушимой свободы» за прошедшие двадцать лет погибли 47.245 афганцев из числа гражданских лиц, а по данным афганских и американских правозащитников получили увечья и ранения от 100 тысяч до 250 тысяч человек, не принимавших в этой войне никакого участия.

В результате этой оккупации пострадали и многие афганские женщины, о чём свидетельствует таблица, составленная на основе докладов двух международных организаций, которые подсчитали, что за период с 2009 по 2020 год погибли 3.352 и получили ранения 7.149 женщин (см. слайд).

«Международные силы содействия безопасности» виновны и в гибели многих детей. Только в этом году от ударов МССБ 550 афганских детей погибли и 1.400 из них получили ранения.

По оценочным данным, также погибли около 35 тысяч боевиков «движения Талибан».

Надо положительно ответить на призыв Пекина расследовать случаи массового убийства мирных жителей военными США и их союзниками за 20 лет кампании в Афганистане. С таким заявлением выступил официальный представитель МИД КНР Ван Вэньбинь.

После появления в Афганистане вооружённых сил западной коалиции производство наркотиков там возросло за последние два десятилетия в сто раз. Это повысило долю страны в общемировом производстве наркотиков до 90 процентов. По данным Управления ООН по контролю за наркотиками и преступностью, в прошлом году урожай опийного мака увеличился на 37 процентов, а общая площадь посевных площадей, засеянной этой опасной культурой, составила рекордные 263 тысячи гектаров.

С приходом вооружённых сил США и НАТО производство наркотиков в Афганистане резко возросло

«Вьетнамский исход, возведённый в куб»

Несмотря на то, что президент Джозеф Байден уверенно считает выход США из Афганистана «успешной миссией», многие сторонники Демократической партии, кандидатом которой он выступал на президентских выборах, а также представители оппозиционной Республиканской партии и бывшие американские военные утверждают обратное. Это было бегство, не достойное великой державы, её полный стратегический и тактический провал, заявляют они. Не предупредили даже своих союзников по НАТО, с обидой говорят другие. Это вьетнамское бегство, возведённое в куб, считают третьи.

Критики головотяпства Вашингтона в Афганистане обращают внимание и на собственные людские жертвы в ходе этой бесславной военной кампании.

За годы оккупации большие людские потери понесли военнослужащие МССБ. В частности, были убиты 2.461 и получили ранения свыше 20 тысяч американских военных и гражданских лиц. В число погибших вошли и тринадцать военнослужащих США, погибших 26 августа в кабульском аэропорту в результате теракта, ответственность за который взяло на себя «Исламское государство»* (запрещённая в РФ террористическая организация).

В результате провала военной оккупации Соединённые Штаты и ряд других стран НАТО утратили своё дипломатическое присутствие в Афганистане. Вашингтон, например, намерен осуществлять политические контакты с представителями новой власти в этой стране через своё посольство в столице Катара Дохе.

Американские военные считают, что потеря одним рядовым винтовки является гораздо худшим событием, чем проигрыш генералом какого-то сражения.

Но только по данным, озвученным экс-президентом Дональдом Трампом, Соединённые Штаты побросали на афганской земле оружия и военной техники на сумму 85 млрд долларов, а по данным американской телекомпании «Фокс» даже на сумму 90 млрд долларов.

При этом никто из военно-политического руководства США не понёс никакого наказания. Скорее всего, никто не понесёт какой-либо ответственности и за тот факт, что за последние 20 лет американская сторона израсходовала на достижение пустых целей в Афганистане до 2 трлн долларов, а также в Ираке на сумму 4 трлн долларов.

В результате позорного конца силовой операции США и НАТО на афганской земле и без того резко пошатнувшийся имидж Вашингтона в мире за его многочисленные акты вооружённого вмешательства в дела других государств опустился ниже плинтуса.

В вооружённых силах США возник «афганский синдром», который по степени воздействия сильнее «вьетнамского синдрома». Вероятно, не случайно, что в Белом доме публично заговорили об отказе участия Америки в смене политических режимов в других странах с помощью военной силы. Наконец-то поняли. Лучше поздно, чем никогда. А после этого: лучше вообще никогда, чем ещё когда-то в будущем.

Проблемы экономики и мигрантов

По данным Пентагона, в ходе эвакуационной операции самолётами военно-транспортной авиации США из Афганистана к 31 августа было вывезено более 123 тысяч человек, в том числе 6 тысяч американских граждан.

Независимо от этого страны НАТО и Европейского союза уклоняются принимать новых афганских беженцев, открытым текстом предлагая сделать это сопредельным с Афганистаном государствам. Пока некоторые страны ЕС обнародовали весьма скромные квоты на размещение граждан этой многострадальной страны, требующих предоставить им убежище: от пяти до нескольких тысяч человек. А сколько желающих покинуть её ещё осталось? 

Новые власти в Кабуле обратились к мировому сообществу с просьбой оказать афганскому народу помощь в таких сферах, как экономика, образование и здравоохранение. И это не случайно.

Во-первых, затяжные и масштабные военные действия в этой стране особенно подорвали столь важные направления её социально-экономического развития.

Во-вторых, прежде около 75 % государственных расходов Афганистана обычно покрывались за счёт международной помощи. А она практически прекратилась.

Представляется также важным требовать от западной оккупационной коалиции в Афганистане полной компенсации ущерба, нанесённого его гражданам, экономике и инфраструктуре за последние 20 лет, а также возвращение ему всех замороженных в других странах финансовых активов.

В-третьих, семь из девяти миллиардов долларов валютного резерва страны по совету «дяди Сэма» размещены в Соединённых Штатах. Но администрация Джозефа Байдена не собирается отдавать их Кабулу.

В-четвёртых, афганский импорт превышает экспорт почти в десять раз. А если бывшие западные «партнёры» заблокируют и это направление?

В-пятых, страна должна избежать гражданской войны с вооружённой оппозицией, окопавшейся в Панджшерской долине (см. слайд).

Территория, занятая оппозицией в Панджшерской долине

«Всепредставительное правительство»

Похоже, что многие государства мира не собираются форсировать признание новой власти в Кабуле, желая вначале присмотреться к её деятельности внутри страны и к внешней политике после полного формирования «всепредставительного правительства».

Признание может состояться при выполнении новой властью целого ряда предварительных условий объективного характера.

Если движение «Талибан» не совершит крупных внутриполитических и внешнеполитических ошибок и будет проводить в жизнь взятые на себя обязательства по обеспечению мирного перехода власти по всей стране, а также обеспечит решение трёх ключевых задач: сохранение статуса страны как участника Движения неприсоединения, где Кабул традиционно проводил политику активного и позитивного неприсоединения и нейтралитета; прекратит наркопроизводство и наркотрафик; не будет поддерживать террористические организации, где бы они не находились, в том числе на своей территории.

Судя по информации афганских СМИ, в стране ведётся кампания за создание «всепредставительного правительства».

При этом зарубежные государства не могут не учитывать, что в подчинении нового кабульского режима находятся все без исключения министерства и ведомства страны, включая МИД, Минобороны и МВД. Поэтому через свои дипломатические представительства, которые останутся в афганской столице, зарубежные государства будут вынуждены контактировать со сформированным правительством и его управленческими структурами в виде министерств и ведомств. Новая исламская власть в Афганистане - это реальность. А с реальностью надо считаться.

О политике России в новом Афганистане

30 августа Совет Безопасности ООН принял резолюцию № 2593 по ситуации в Афганистане. Её проект подготовили Великобритания, Германия и Франция. Несмотря на то, что Россия внесла значительный вклад в придание документу максимально сбалансированного вида, Москва и Пекин были вынуждены воздержаться от голосования. Всего за принятие резолюции проголосовали 13 стран.

Выступая по мотивам голосования, российский представитель в Совете Безопасности в ООН заявил, что это было сделано по причине игнорирования авторами проекта принципиальных озабоченностей России.

Эти авторы:

• категорически отказались упоминать в тексте документа международно-признанные террористическими организации «Исламское государство» и «Исламское движение Восточного Туркестана» в попытке затушевывать террористические угрозы, исходящие от этих группировок;

• выступили против включения в него положения о нежелательности эвакуации квалифицированных афганских кадров для социально-экономического положения Афганистана;

• проигнорировали российские предложения включить в документ констатацию пагубного влияния замораживания афганских финансовых активов на экономическую и гуманитарную ситуацию в стране, а также императив оказания гуманитарного содействия Афганистану в строгом соответствии с руководящими принципами ООН, закреплёнными в резолюции Генеральной Ассамблеи 46/182.

 

Российская сторона увидела в таком подходе попытки переложить ответственность за провал 20-летнего присутствия США и их союзников в Афганистане на движение «Талибан», а также государства региона, которым придётся иметь дело с последствиями этой длительной вооружённой кампании. Такое безответственное поведение западной коалиции и её отношение к происходящему в Афганистане неудивительны, учитывая и то, как чисто формально отчитывались перед Советом Безопасности военные миссии НАТО в этой стране.

Представляется, что политика России в Афганистане должна быть очень осмотрительной и взвешенной. И одновременно взаимно-дружественной.

Россия должна учитывать возможные позитивные и негативные шаги Афганистана в своей внутренней и внешней политике, степень его отношения к Российской Федерации и участникам Организации Договора коллективной безопасности и Шанхайской организации сотрудничества.

Для российской стороны немаловажно не только то, как новые власти в Кабуле будут проводить внутреннюю политику в стране, полностью освободившуюся от иностранных оккупантов: прекратят ли они наркопроизводство и наркотрафик в другие государства, будут ли они поддерживать террористические организации или нет.

Для России также будет иметь принципиальное значение - каким образом новые власти будут действовать на внешнеполитическом направлении.

Как известно, Афганистан является одним основателей Движения неприсоединения, созданного в 1961 году группой внеблоковых государств. Многие десятилетия он проводил политику активного и позитивного неприсоединения и нейтралитета. Не участвовал в вооружённых конфликтах и не вторгался на чужие земли.

Новое афганское правительство могло бы провозгласить политику неприсоединения в международных делах. Это было бы позитивно воспринято в мировом сообществе.

Москва должна в большей степени учитывать пуштунский фактор, действующий в Афганистане, а также содействовать тому, чтобы государства Центральной Азии, да и все сопредельные с ним страны поддерживали между ними и Афганистаном ровные политические, торгово-экономические, культурные и гуманитарные отношения на принципах добрососедства, уважения суверенитета и территориальной целостности, а также невмешательства во внутренние дела друг друга.

Москва позитивно реагирует на гарантии безопасности, которые новые афганские лидеры дали российским дипломатам, работающим в Афганистане. Отмечает их содействие в отправке из Кабула свыше 500 граждан России и ряда других государств самолётами ВВС России,  упрощение руководством движения «Талибан» погранично-таможенных формальностей при оформлении вылета эвакуируемых из страны, что позволило им беспрепятственно проследовать на автобусах прямо к трапам вывозных российских воздушных судов.

Россия уже несколько последних лет успешно контактировала с высокопоставленными представителями движения «Талибан» и имеет позитивный опыт взаимодействия с ними.  Такой опыт должен быть расширен в будущем по обоюдному согласию Москвы и Кабула. Он должен радикально отличаться от политики «огня и меча», которую проводили на афганской земле Соединённые Штаты и НАТО последнее двадцатилетие.

Следует учитывать стабильный исторический менталитет афганцев: они всегда проявляли гостеприимство к иностранцам, которые приходили к ним с миром и с добрыми намерениями. Но они неизменно воспринимали чужестранцев на своей территории с оружием в руках как своих злейших врагов.

30 августа Россия заявила в Совете Безопасности ООН, что последовательно выступает за мирный, безопасный и стабильный Афганистан, с территории которого не будет исходить террористических и наркотических угроз, а также обещала продолжить содействие афганцам в достижении этой цели.

Автор: В.П. Козин. Источник: Еженедельник “Звезда”

США ломают систему контроля над вооружениями

В 2018 году США продолжали целенаправленно разрушать систему международных договоров в сфере контроля над вооружениями и одновременно прилагали значительные усилия для того, чтобы в соответствии с лозунгом «Америка превыше всего» повысить мощь вооружённых сил страны и НАТО в целом. Так, Вашингтон разорвал в одностороннем порядке Венское соглашение по иранской ядерной программе, не торопился полностью ликвидировать химическое оружие в соответствии с глобальной Конвенцией о его запрещении, не стал обсуждать проекты двух международных договоров: Договора о европейской безопасности и Договора о предотвращении размещения оружия в космическом пространстве.

Среди значимых событий года в этом направлении стало также намерение Вашингтона разорвать Договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности. Следует подчеркнуть, что американцы уже давно целенаправленно подвергают разрушению этот договорный акт. Даже по официальным данным управления по ПРО Пентагона, США нарушили ДРСМД за последние 17 лет 96 раз. Последнее такое нарушение произошло 11 декабря, когда американскими ВМС в Тихом океане была успешно перехвачена ракета средней дальности, запрещённая договором.

В то же самое время нынешнее американское военно-политическое руководство продолжало модернизацию стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений и средств их доставки. Несмотря на возражения конгресса Дональд Трамп сохранил за собой исключительное право инициативного применения ядерного оружия под многочисленными предлогами. Одобренная им новая ядерная стратегия предусматривает понижение порога применения ядерного оружия за счёт повышения количества оснований для его использования. В обновлённой в 2018 году ядерной установке особое внимание также уделено возможности применения ядерных боезарядов малой мощности, то есть с мощностью 5 килотонн и ниже.

В уходящем году Соединённые Штаты уделяли повышенное внимание развитию глобальной противоракетной инфраструктуры – как самостоятельно, так и во взаимодействии со своими союзниками в Европе и Азии. Военное руководство США обнародовало принципиальные основы космических сил страны и функциональные принципы объединённого космического командования, подчеркнув при этом стремление «доминировать в космосе и иметь в этой среде полную свободу действий».

Состоявшийся в июле брюссельский саммит НАТО под давлением Вашингтона принял решение о необходимости доведения уровня военных расходов всех государств – членов НАТО до 2 процентов в год от уровня ВВП. Североатлантический союз также создал два новых командования: морское на территории США и логистическое, расположенное в ФРГ, которые призваны координировать стратегические переброски вооружённых сил альянса на европейский и азиатский континенты в сжатые сроки. Одновременно резко возросла интенсивность военных учений США и стран НАТО вблизи российских границ, а также началось развёртывание в пограничных районах военной инфраструктуры, в частности стратегических неядерных систем высокоточного оружия.

Автор: В.П. Козин, Источник: “Красная звезда”

США наращивают стратегическую авиацию близ России и Беларуси

Проводимые масштабные акции авиационных стратегических средств США с участием двух третей государств-членов НАТО в небе Европы, в частности у рубежей России и Беларуси, не могут квалифицироваться иначе как глобальные военные приготовления

За последние несколько лет стратегическая авиация США, укомплектованная тяжёлыми стратегическими бомбардировщиками (ТСБ), подпадающими под ограничения Договора СНВ-3, значительно нарастила количество таких самолётов при патрулировании воздушного пространства своих союзников по НАТО, а также периодичность полётов с ними в небе Европы.

Особенности активизации полётов

Так, если в начале проведения активных операций подобного рода в небе Европы (2015 год) к ним привлекался только один тяжёлый стратегический бомбардировщик СЯС США типа B-52H или B-1B, то впоследствии к ним стали добавлять сначала один, затем два, а в конце августа 2020 года направили сразу три самолёта названных типов. В дальнейшем к ним присоединился ТСБ В-2А «Спирит», который был замечен в небе над Арктикой.

Тяжёлый стратегический бомбардировщик В-2А «Спирит» был замечен в небе над Арктикой

К проведению подобных операций теперь привлекаются на постоянной основе тяжёлые стратегические бомбардировщики, входящие в «Оперативное бомбардировочное соединение» США («Bombers Task Force»). Судя по тому, что в названии не указывается тип включённых в него самолётов, это должно быть какое-то рядовое соединение. Но на самом деле оно представляет собой оперативное соединение стратегической бомбардировочной авиации США, которое имеет глобальную зону действия и сертифицировано под доставку ядерных боезарядов стратегического назначения.

В последние годы, в особенности в период правления президента Дональда Трампа, зона и продолжительность полётов таких самолётов в воздушном пространстве европейского континента значительно возросла.

Если прежде один такой бомбардировщик проводил полёты над какой-то одной европейской морской акваторией и территорией только одного или двух государств-членов НАТО, то в последнее время пространственная зона действий стратегической авиации США в небе Европы возросла в несколько раз.

Так, во время целой серии полётов американских ТСБ в европейском воздушном пространстве с 22 по 31 августа 2020 года участвовало 19 европейских государств блока: Бельгия, Болгария, Великобритания, Венгрия, Германия, Греция, Дания, Испания, Италия, Нидерланды, Норвегия, Польша, Португалия, Румыния, Словакия, Турция, Франция, Хорватия и Чехия. 

Кроме того, в этот период времени американские ТСБ одновременно осуществляли пролёты над территорией США и Канады.

По данным Европейского командования вооружённых сил США, в общей сложности, начиная с 2018 года и по настоящее время, самолёты стратегической авиации США совершили около 200 полётов в рамках «Оперативного бомбардировочного соединения», действующего в тесной координации со своими союзниками по трансатлантическому альянсу. То есть, в среднем организовывалось по шесть вылетов месяц.

Это очень тревожный показатель.

Задачи стратегического назначения

Как известно, Соединённые Штаты подписали «соглашения о разделении ядерной ответственности» с пятью государствами-членами трансатлантического альянса, на территории которых с 1950 годов размещено американское ядерное оружие, а также ещё с группой стран, входящих в НАТО. В экспертном сообществе возникали разногласия по поводу общего количества участников таких договорённостей. Но теперь их количество невозможно утаить: видимо, это 19 стран плюс США или треть списочного состава НАТО.

Без согласия союзников Вашингтона проведение таких полётов авиации СЯС США над Европой представляется невозможным

 

Разумеется, без согласия военно-политического руководства союзников Вашингтона, вовлечённых в столь провокационный проект, проведение таких полётов авиации СЯС США над Европой представляется невозможным. Это означает, что соответствующие решения были оформлены не какими-то устными договорённостями, а конкретными взаимными обязательствами сторон в письменной форме.

Основными задачами «Оперативного бомбардировочного соединения» США являются: интеграция авиационного компонента американских СЯС с ВВС союзников по НАТО и не входящих в этот блок, повышение их оперативного взаимодействия в воздушном пространстве, дозаправка в воздухе, привыкание к обстановке «на европейском театре военных действий», а также - и это самое главное - «демонстрация потенциала для обеспечения расширенного [ядерного] сдерживания» и «участие в предотвращении кризисов».

Находящееся на их борту ядерное вооружение позволяет решать такие задачи.

 

Все американские ТСБ, в том числе прилетающие в Европу, имеют на борту либо ядерные ракеты, либо ядерные авиабомбы. Например, В-52Н может взять на борт свыше 30 тонн различных боеприпасов, В-1В - 24 ракеты, в В-2А - до 16 ядерных авиабомб и 16 крылатых ракет в ядерном снаряжении, а также восемь высокоточных ракет различного предназначения.

В-52Н может взять на борт свыше 30 тонн различных боеприпасов

 

Особая активность в проведении обозначенных акций в последние годы наблюдается у рубежей Российской Федерации и Республики Беларусь - в районах Балтийского, Баренцева и Чёрного морей, а также с сопредельных с ними государств блока НАТО.

Самолёты тяжёлой стратегической авиации СЯС США пролетали и высаживались на авиабазах Латвии, Литвы, Польши и Эстонии, уже переоборудованных под посадку и взлёт названных авиационных средств. То есть использовали аэродромы и военную авиадиспетчерскую службу в тех государствах Североатлантического альянса, которые не имеют ни собственного ядерного оружия, ни американского ядерного оружия на своей территории.

 

Помимо проведения так называемых рутинных плановых полётов указанные носители стратегических наступательных вооружений США принимали участие в региональных военных учениях НАТО «Балтопс», «Единый трезубец» и круглосуточной операции ВВС альянса «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование». В частности, в последней названной операции уже давно принимают участие самолёты из 15 государств, входящих в Североатлантический союз, в том числе бомбардировщики «двойного назначения» средней дальности всех трёх ядерных государств Запада - Великобритании, США и Франции.

При проведении таких акций возник новый элемент: в них также стали принимать участие государства, которые не входят в НАТО, например Украина.

Так, 29 мая 2020 года два ТСБ США В-1В совершили пролёт воздушного пространства Украины, которая не входит в НАТО, но буквально рвётся стать стать членом этого альянса. Их сопровождали самолёты Су-27 и МиГ-29 ВВС Украины. Такой совместный пролёт ядерной державой с неядерным государством был осуществлён впервые в украинском небе. 4 сентября 2020 года восемь российских истребителей из состава Южного военного округа перехватили ещё три стратегических бомбардировщика США В-52Н над Чёрным и Азовским морями. В этот день один из В-52Н пролетел в 25 км от российского Крыма со стороны Украины. Их вновь охраняли в воздухе украинские истребители.

29 мая 2020 года два ТСБ США В-1B совершили пролёт воздушного пространства Украины в сопровождении украинских самолётов Су-27 и МиГ-29

 

Командование ВВС США в Европе официально подтвердило, что ядерные стратегические бомбардировщики B-52H «провели тренировку по Крыму» и продемонстрировали «возможности для сдерживания России». «Миссия предоставила партнёрам ценную возможность потренироваться в воздухе. Кроме того, она продемонстрировала, как самолёты и экипажи B-52Н передового базирования способствуют коллективной безопасности и обеспечивают США, союзников по НАТО и партнёров возможностью для сдерживания России», - отметили в штабе американских ВВС.

Маршрут В-52Н в небе Украины

 

В октябре 2019 года такой же стратегический бомбардировщик США пролетал в 60 км от Калининградской области в воздушном пространстве Литвы.

При этом отрабатывается нанесение условных ядерных ударов по территории России и Беларуси. В частности, такой удар отрабатывался в октябре прошлого года по военному полигону в Литве, к которой он явно не имел отношения как союзнице США по НАТО.

Оценка происходящего и меры противодействия

Авиация стран НАТО совершает регулярные полёты с имитацией нанесения ракетных ударов по территории России. Об этом сообщил в интервью телеканалу «Россия-24» 5 сентября этого года министр обороны России Сергей Шойгу. «Настораживает больше другое: если раньше с той или иной частотой, конечно, не так, как сейчас, несколько реже, была это в основном разведывательная авиация, то сейчас начались регулярные полёты и заходы с тренировкой, имитацией нанесения ракетных ударов, в том числе с применением большого количества самолётов», - заявил руководитель российского военного ведомства.

 В октябре 2019 года стратегический бомбардировщик США В-52Н пролетал в 60 км от Калининградской области в воздушном пространстве Литвы

 

Всё это говорит о серьёзной и значительной опасности, создаваемой для национальной безопасности Российской Федерации и Республики Беларусь.

Такая опасность целенаправленно и последовательно создаётся Соединёнными Штатами и их союзниками по военному альянсу «трансатлантической солидарности».

Такая опасность явно имеет в себе стратегическую составляющую и глубокие стратегические последствия для международного мира и безопасности. Проводимые масштабные акции авиационных стратегических средств США с участием двух третей государств-членов НАТО в небе Европы, в частности у рубежей России и Беларуси, не могут квалифицироваться иначе как глобальные военные приготовления.

Российская РЛС предупреждения о ракетном нападении «Волга» под Ганцевичами в Белоруссии

 

Российская Федерация уже принимала определённые меры противодействия ракетно-ядерной активности и пространственной экспансии Вашингтона и его союзников по НАТО с использованием СНВ. Речь идёт о повышении эффективности российских средств раннего предупреждения о ракетном и ином нападении извне с использованием стратегических наступательных вооружений, наращивании группировки ПВО и ПРО, а также о создании перспективных видов высокоточных и суперманёвренных гиперзвуковых систем вооружений межконтинентальной дальности.

Привлечение Вашингтоном 19 стран, входящих в НАТО, к операциям своих СЯС воздушного базирования, проводимых в непосредственной близости от российских и белорусских рубежей, требует особого внимания и принятия дополнительных мер противодействия со стороны Союзного государства, в частности, в области укрепления его системы ПВО и ПРО.

Активизация авиационных средств США стратегического назначения близ территории России и Беларуси также должна приниматься во внимание при проведении любых переговоров с Вашингтоном по контролю над вооружениями, в том числе над ядерными.

 

В случае продолжения практики наращивания американской стороной ракетно-ядерных вооружений «передового базирования» Москва имеет право создать для государств НАТО, вовлечённых в проводимые военно-воздушные операции стратегического назначения, аналогичную ситуацию и внести определённые коррективы в свою ядерную доктрину, которая до сих пор носила оборонительный и весьма условный характер.

Автор: В.П. Козин. Источник: еженедельник "Звезда"

 

 

 

США неуклонно идут к выходу из ДРСМД

Официально объявив в начале февраля этого года о приостановке своего участия в Договоре о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности 1987 года (ДРСМД), а затем и о полном выходе из него начиная со 2 августа этого года, Соединенные Штаты продолжают запущенный ими в одностороннем порядке процесс разрыва с этим важным договорным актом, который позволил к лету 1991 года уничтожить сразу два класса ядерных ракет средней и меньшей дальности.

Ранее казалось, что это навсегда. Договор устраивал Вашингтон во всех отношениях. Еще бы. По его условиям СССР уничтожил в два раза больше носителей ядерного оружия, чем США. Но теперь события развиваются совершенно по-другому сценарию, разработанному Белым домом.

Сейчас он объясняет свое решение о выходе из ДРСМД фактом его «несоблюдения» российской стороной, якобы, путем создания и развертывания новой крылатой ракеты наземного базирования (КРНБ) с индексом 9М729.

Но никаких доказательств по этому поводу американская сторона предоставить до сих пор не смогла. Не удовлетворили ее и многочисленные разъяснения, которые Москва дала Вашингтону за последние пять лет в ходе около тридцати официальных консультаций, проведенных с американскими должностными лицами. Проигнорировали американские визави и беспрецедентную пресс-конференцию, которые совместно провели в военно-патриотическом парке «Патриот» 23 января этого года Министерство обороны и МИД Российской Федерации по проблематике договора.

Это мероприятие, на которое были приглашены военные атташе, российские и зарубежные журналисты, было действительно беспрецедентным, во-первых, по той причине, что его проведение вообще не предусматривается ДРСМД, и, во-вторых, потому, что на нем впервые публично были оглашены некоторые существенные тактико-технические характеристики названной КРНБ, а также ее принципиально важный параметр – максимально допустимая дальность стрельбы –  не более 480 км. Следует напомнить, что по условиям этого договорного акта, критерием принадлежности упомянутых в нем баллистических и крылатых ракет средней и меньшей дальности стал только один параметр, а именно дальность их стрельбы, то есть, соответственно, в пределах 1000-5500 км и 500-1000 км.

Соединенные Штаты уже давно отвергли российские инициативы, направленные на урегулирование претензий в контексте выполнения договора 1987 года через взаимные меры транспарентности. Они просто отклонили саму идею обеспечения взаимности при их реализации. Вашингтон не проявил никакой готовности к продолжению дальнейшего диалога по указанной проблематике, а сделал необоснованный упор на предъявлении российской стороне странного по форме и неприемлемого по содержанию ультиматума, суть которого состояла в требовании, чтобы Россия уничтожила КРНБ 9М729 и все необходимое к ней вспомогательное оборудование в одностороннем порядке. И только в обмен на соблюдение договора американской стороной. 

Вполне справедлив вопрос: а не нарушала ли сама американская сторона ДРСМД? Факты, относящиеся «к упрямым вещам», говорят: нарушала. И не раз.

За последние почти 20 лет Пентагон использовал ракеты-мишени средней и меньшей дальности 117 (117) раз при проверке эффективности глобальной системы ПРО США. Это были новые ракеты-мишени шести вариантов, специально созданные в Соединенных Штатах для одновременного решения двух задач: тестирования ракет-перехватчиков системы ПРО, а также ракет средней и меньшей дальности, в частности, Aries, GLCM-X, Hera, LRALT, MRT-1 и Storm-2.

Первое использование американскими военными ракет-перехватчиков «противоракетного щита» для перехвата ракеты-мишени меньшей дальности, подпадающей под терминологические определения договора, датируется 2 октября 1999 года. То есть, почти 20 лет назад.

Об этом свидетельствует открытая для общего пользования информация Управления по ПРО Министерства обороны США. Об особенностях проведения последующих испытаний подобного рода всех желающих информировали пресс-релизы этого структурного подразделения Пентагона, отвечающего за разработку, производство и развертывание ракет-перехватчиков противоракетной инфраструктуры – за исключением их потенциального боевого применения в условиях военного времени.

Другим важным официальным источником информации об использовании ракет-мишеней средней и меньшей дальности стали официальные справочные материалы, подготовленные Исследовательской службой американского Конгресса. В последнее время на эту тему эта служба подготовила два подобных материала: в декабре прошлого года и в феврале нынешнего.

Короче говоря, США уже давно фактически и в одностороннем порядке вышли из этого договора. Так в чем же заключаются истинные мотивы выхода американских контрагентов из ДРСМД, если до сих пор им не удалось доказать его «нарушения» Российской Федерацией?

Представляется, что таких мотивов у нынешнего американского руководства было несколько.

Первое. США хотят создать и разместить в Европе, Азии и Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе новые типы мобильно-грунтовых крылатых и баллистических ракет средней дальности в ядерном снаряжении с целью сдерживания мнимой «российской, китайской, иранской и северокорейской ракетной угрозы». Короче говоря, США ведут активную разработку новых ракетных систем средней и меньшей дальности, среди которых доля ракет средней дальности будет являться подавляющей.

Второе. Вашингтон намерен повторить опасную ситуацию, созданную «двойным решением» НАТО, принятым в декабре 1979 года, когда альянс дал «зеленый свет» складированию 846 американских ядерных ракет средней дальности в виде «Першингов» и «Томагавков» в ряде государств Европы, что вызвало острейший ракетно-ядерный кризис между США/НАТО и СССР.

Третье. В США рассчитывают добиться от России одностороннего согласия на уничтожение ряда современных баллистических и крылатых ракет меньшей, средней и даже межконтинентальной дальности, а также перспективные гиперзвуковые комплексы, которые никак не подпадают под определения договора 1987 года, только за то, что Вашингтон не выйдет из ДРСМД. В марте этого года Департамент информации и печати уже сделал заявление, что на уничтожение КРНБ 9М729 Россия не пойдет. Тем более российская сторона не пойдет на уничтожение ракетно-ядерных систем других классов, не подпадающих под ограничения договора 1987 года.

Четвертое. Через собственный инициативный отказ от ДРСМД нынешнее военно-политическое руководство Америки стремится вовлечь в диалог по вступлению в обновленный диалог по проблематике введения ограничений на ракеты средней и меньшей дальности Китайскую Народную Республику, которая не желает становиться его участником. В этом контексте Соединенные Штаты и ФРГ пытаются внушить Москве мнение о том, что китайские ядерные ракеты средней дальности «угрожают национальной безопасности Российской Федерации». Но реальность такова, что именно американское ракетно-ядерное оружие угрожает России и КНР сразу в двух ипостасях: то есть ракетно-ядерное оружие, базирующееся на территории США и в Мировом океане, а также (применительно к России) ядерные авиабомбы, хранящиеся на немецкой земле еще с 50-ых годов прошлого столетия. К этому арсеналу, проецируемом против России и КНР в последние годы еще добавился «противоракетный зонтик» США и их союзников по НАТО и ряда внеблоковых государств. А в скором времени добавятся еще американские ударные космические вооружения.

Пятое. Искусственно обостряя ситуацию в ракетно-ядерной области, в Белом доме хотели бы оказать давление на своих союзников по НАТО, с тем чтобы все они сначала довели уровень собственных военных расходов относительно их ВВП до двух процентов, а в перспективе и до четырех. Для справки следует напомнить, что в настоящее время только семь стран из 29 государств, входящих в трансатлантический альянс, вышли на такой двухпроцентный рубеж, и часть государств этого военного блока сопротивляется повышению обозначенных ассигнований на военные нужды.

Если Соединенные Штаты сохранят неконструктивную позицию по отношению к ДРСМД, то 2 августа этого года он не только фактически, но и юридически прекратит свое существование, поскольку Россия не будет соблюдать его в единственном числе. Естественно, что она будет готова отреагировать адекватно на их создание и развертывание. Это будет шаг логический, обоснованный и зеркальный.

Очевидно, что развал такой договоренности будет иметь самые негативные последствия для международной безопасности и глобальной стабильности. Может начаться гонка вооружений в нескольких сферах, например, в ракетно-ядерной, противоракетной и космической. Дальнейшей эрозии подвергнется вся система контроля над вооружениями, где и без того Вашингтон негативно относится к двенадцати договорам и соглашениям, заключенным ранее или выдвинутым в качестве международных проектов. Это параллельно чревато серьёзными угрозами для сохранения режима нераспространения ядерного оружия и перспектив дальнейших ограничений ядерных вооружений, в частности, для продления срока действия Договора СНВ-3 до 2026 года.

Но Соединенные Штаты подобная перспектива явно не волнует. А жаль. В таком случае вся ответственность за обострение международной обстановки возлагается только на Вашингтон и его союзников по НАТО.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: ИнфоШОС

США превращают околоземное пространство в ещё одно поле боя

Космические программы находятся в списке приоритетов Пентагона

США продолжают наращивать усилия по милитаризации космоса. Очередным подтверждением тому служит военный бюджет на 2023 финансовый год, в котором выделяются огромные суммы на реализацию космических планов Пентагона. В чём они заключаются и на что конкретно пойдут выделяемые средства? Эти и другие вопросы, касающиеся милитаризации американцами околоземного пространства, стали темой беседы нашего обозревателя с известным политологом Владимиром Козиным, ведущим экспертом Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, членом-корреспондентом Академии военных наук, автором монографий «Военно-космическая политика США: основные направления и перспективные потенциалы» (2019) и «Космические силы США: их ключевые задачи и будущие потенциалы» (2022).

– Владимир Петрович, нашу беседу хотелось бы начать с того, что недавно Генеральная Ассамблея ООН приняла предложенные Россией резолюции, направленные на недопущение превращения космического пространства в сферу военного противоборства. Что вы можете сказать в этой связи?

– Действительно, в середине декабря были приняты три такие резолюции. Первая, названная «Меры по предотвращению гонки вооружений в космическом пространстве», призвала международное сообщество продолжать усилия, направленные на предотвращение гонки вооружений в космическом пространстве, включая недопущение размещения оружия в нём, в целях поддержания международного мира и укрепления глобальной безопасности.

Вторая получила название «Неразмещение первыми оружия в космосе». В ней сессия призвала все государства, в особенности те, которые располагают космическим потенциалом, к рассмотрению обязательства о неразмещении первыми оружия в космосе.

И третий документ, озаглавленный как «Меры по обеспечению транспарентности и укреплению доверия в космической деятельности», рекомендовал государствам – участникам ООН продолжать осуществлять на добровольной основе и посредством соответствующих национальных механизмов меры транспарентности и укрепления доверия в космической среде в максимально возможной и практически реализуемой степени.

Принятие этих документов является свидетельством обеспокоенности мирового сообщества угрозой начала гонки вооружений между государствами в космосе и превращения околоземного пространства в зону силового противостояния.

– Хорошо. А готовы ли их претворять в жизнь все космические державы? Предусматривается ли какой-то механизм наказания?

– Следует отметить, что все резолюции были приняты большинством голосов. Но при этом против них голосовали ведущие государства, входящие в НАТО. Исходя из такого голосования, нетрудно предположить, что государства – члены Североатлантического альянса не станут, увы, следовать этим документам. В данном контексте надо учитывать и то обстоятельство, что все без исключения резолюции сессий Генеральной Ассамблеи ООН носят рекомендательный характер. Реально действующий механизм наказания космических государств за их неисполнение не предусмотрен.

Возможно, у кого-то в этой связи возникнут пессимистические настроения относительно таких действий Генассамблеи. Однако замечу: как говорят, из многих малых выходит одно большое. Тем более что это лучше, чем сидеть сложа руки. А посему надо постоянно поднимать эту тему на международной арене, привлекать на свою сторону всё больше стран, обеспокоенных судьбой планеты, вырабатывать конкретные меры, направленные против милитаризации космоса и, в конечном счёте, добиваться их претворения в жизнь.

– Но ведь трудно ожидать, что США откажутся от своих планов в космосе, который они уже объявили новым театром военных действий…

– На данном этапе, это, к сожалению, так. Одержимые утверждением мировой гегемонии, Соединённые Штаты идут только на те международные акции, которые способствуют им в решении этой задачи. По сути, они отказались от процесса контроля над вооружениями, который как раз и ограничивает их возможности в реализации планов по построению мира по американским правилам. В полной степени это относится к околоземному пространству, которое военно-политическое руководство США официально объявило сферой неограниченной военной деятельности и проведения военных операций с характерной «путеводной звездой» – они намерены обладать способностью при необходимости одержать победу в космосе.

В период президентства Дональда Трампа в США были созданы полноценные космические силы, ставшие одним из видов вооружённых сил. Их главная функциональная задача заключается в обеспечении беспрепятственного военного доступа к околоземному пространству и поддержании готовности к уничтожению в нём объектов потенциальных противников. Этим силам предписано осуществлять не только оборонительные, но и наступательные ударные операции в космосе, проецировать военную мощь по трём векторам: в самом космическом пространстве, из него в сторону Земли и с неё в направлении космоса. Точно также, как в ядерной стратегии США Вашингтон неизменно демонстрирует нежелание переходить на концепцию отказа от нанесения первого ядерного удара, так и в американской космической стратегии зафиксировано нежелание поддерживать предложение о неразмещении оружия в космосе первыми.

Для достижения целей своей стратегии США активно разрабатывают различные виды оружия в космическом пространстве, часто проводят военные учения, во время которых отрабатывают конкретные действия по применению средств поражения. В качестве примера можно привести беспилотную космическую платформу многоразового использования X-37B. Совсем недавно, а если быть точнее, то 12 октября, она завершила свой шестой полёт, начатый в мае 2020 года.

Что собой представляет эта платформа и какие задачи она решает в ходе своих полётов, Пентагон особо не афиширует. По мнению некоторых экспертов, включая американских, на X-37B может быть установлено оружие, в том числе ядерное, для нанесения удара по наземным целям. Она также может быть оснащена роботизированными штангами для захвата чужих спутников, находящихся на орбите. Бывший официальный представитель Пентагона Хизер Уилсон, кроме того, указала на способность аппарата изменять свою орбиту, что, по её словам, даёт ему возможность наблюдать за другими спутниками или наземными целями, а также наносить удары с орбиты.

Известно также, что США разрабатывают несколько вариантов противоспутниковых систем, в том числе оснащённых оружием направленной энергии, которое может уничтожать любые космические объекты.

А взять участие космических сил США в украинском конфликте. Как известно, они осуществляют военно-космическую разведку на украинской территории против России и полученные данные передают киевским властям. Причём для этих целей используются не только военные спутники, но и во всё более широких масштабах гражданские космические аппараты, что также ведёт к милитаризации космического пространства. Как было заявлено на днях на расширенном заседании Коллегии Минобороны России, в интересах ВСУ работает более 500 космических аппаратов США и НАТО, из них свыше 70 – военные, остальные – двойного назначения.

– И на всё это требуются немалые средства. Чем в этом плане характерен бюджет Пентагона на 2023 финансовый год?

– Прежде всего значительным увеличением расходов на военные космические программы. В частности, предусматривается выделение космическим силам около 26 млрд долларов, что составляет увеличение расходов почти на 40 процентов по сравнению с прошлым годом. Белый дом объясняет такое увеличение тем, что космос жизненно важен для национальной безопасности США и является неотъемлемой частью современной войны. И что такое финансирование поддерживает, цитирую, «преимущество Америки путём повышения устойчивости космической архитектуры США для усиления сдерживания и повышения живучести во время военных действий».

Предложенное распределение бюджетных средств выводит на первое место научно-исследовательские разработки и испытания, на которые планируется выделить 15,8 млрд долларов. Расходы на эксплуатацию и обслуживание существующих систем оценены в 4 млрд, а на закупку спутников и пусковых услуг выделяется 3,6 млрд долларов. Причём упор будет сделан на спутники противоракетной обороны, которые, по утверждению Пентагона, необходимы для обнаружения и отслеживания современных гиперзвуковых ракет и планирующих блоков.

– США не только сами занимаются милитаризацией космоса, но и активно втягивают в этот процесс своих союзников…

– Совершенно верно. И подтверждением тому является принятие в январе этого года Североатлантическим альянсом космической стратегии. Документ называется «Всеобъемлющая политика НАТО в космосе» и фиксирует намерение альянса распространить так называемую зону своей ответственности на околоземное пространство. С этой целью НАТО, как указывается, будет стремиться интегрировать космос в систему коллективной безопасности и обороны альянса наряду с киберпространством, морской, воздушной и сухопутной средой.

Собственно говоря, НАТО стало на этот путь ещё раньше. Так, можно вспомнить, что в рамках учения Trident Juncture – 2018 («Единый трезубец – 2018») отрабатывались определённые элементы ведения боевых действий союзных войск с привлечением космических средств. Судя по заявлениям представителей НАТО, учение показало, что околоземное пространство имеет огромное значение для развёрнутых группировок с точки зрения обеспечения связи, передвижений и целеуказания.

А в 2020 году было принято решение о создании космического центра НАТО. Комментируя его, генеральный секретарь этого альянса Йенс Столтенберг тогда заявил, что такой центр необходим для того, чтобы координировать действия стран – членов блока в космосе, поскольку они располагают разными возможностями. Сейчас в этом центре, который разместился на авиабазе Рамштайн в Германии, работают специалисты из Соединённых Штатов, Великобритании, Испании, Нидерландов и ФРГ. Ожидается, что эта структура получит дополнительный персонал от некоторых других союзников по мере своего организационно-штатного расширения, обеспечивая необходимый потенциал для НАТО.

Кроме того, Соединённые Штаты настраивают своих ближайших союзников на более широкое использование своего научно-исследовательского и технологического потенциала для повышения осведомлённости о космосе и эффективного применения космических возможностей. Государства – участники НАТО будут изучать возможности для развития сотрудничества с предприятиями космической промышленности и гражданским коммерческим сектором.

США, наращивая свои усилия в военно-космической сфере, не ограничиваются только Североатлантическим альянсом. Они развернули активную работу как по размещению компонентов американских космических сил в других регионах, так и по вовлечению расположенных там стран в свои планы по милитаризации околоземного пространства. Так, уже создано космическое командование в Индо-Тихоокеанском регионе, в задачи которого входит среди других и организация взаимодействия с азиатскими союзниками по оперированию в околоземном пространстве. А в Южной Корее размещено подразделение американских космических сил. Комментируя этот факт, заместитель начальника космических операций генерал Дэвид Томпсон заявил, что руководство США тем самым показывает своё понимание, «что нам нужно больше возможностей в космосе, без которых мы не сможем эффективно действовать».

Аналогичные планы существуют и в отношении Центрального командования вооружённых сил США, отвечающего за планирование операций и управление американскими войсками в регионах Ближнего и Среднего Востока, Центральной Азии и Восточной Африки.

Всё это свидетельствует о том, что США не только сами безудержно милитаризируют околоземное пространство, но и стремятся привлечь к реализации своих космических планов как можно больше государств. И это не может не вызывать обеспокоенности у мирового сообщества.

Беседовал Владимир Кузарь. Источник: «Красная звезда»

 

 

США снова готовы применить ядерное оружие

На это направлено как наращивание соответствующего потенциала, так и обучение войск по его использованию в превентивном ударе.

Во многих странах мира прошли траурные церемонии, посвящённые 77-й годовщине американских ядерных бомбардировок японских городов Хиросимы и Нагасаки. Говоря об этом чудовищном преступлении против человечности, мировое сообщество в то же время выражает обеспокоенность возрастанием угрозы ядерной войны. Чем вызвана такая озабоченность и как предотвратить сползание планеты к ядерной катастрофе? На эту тему состоялся разговор нашего обозревателя с известным политологом Владимиром Козиным, ведущим экспертом Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, членом-корреспондентом Академии военных наук России.

– Владимир Петрович, бомбардировки Хиросимы и Нагасаки стали единственным в истории человечества примером боевого применения ядерного оружия…

– Следует отметить, что первоначально Соединённые Штаты были намерены сбросить на Японию девять атомных бомб. Правда, их планировалось сбросить на рисовые поля и в море, так как считалось, что и этого будет достаточно, чтобы добиться нужного психологического эффекта в борьбе с японскими войсками. Но затем было принято решение применить новое оружие против густо заселённых городов.

Ими и стали Хиросима и Нагасаки. Утром 6 августа 1945 года на Хиросиму с населением больше 300 тысяч человек был сброшен американский «Малыш» – так цинично разработчики назвали атомную бомбу, за секунды спалившую заживо почти 100 тысяч человек. А через три дня бомба с не менее циничным названием «Толстяк» обрушилась на двухсоттысячный Нагасаки. Общее число жертв бомбардировок – свыше 450 тысяч человек, а выжившие до сих пор страдают от заболеваний, вызванных радиационным облучением. По последним данным, их число составляет около 180 тысяч.

Страшная трагедия в японских городах по сей день отзывается болью в сердцах миллионов людей на планете. Указывая на это, Генеральный секретарь ООН Антониу Гутерриш в своём выступлении в Хиросиме на церемонии, посвящённой 77-й годовщине атомной бомбардировки города, заявил: «Хиросима – это трагедия и урок для всех. Я обращаюсь в первую очередь к молодым людям. Вы не должны забывать о том, что здесь произошло». Тем более что, как он отметил, в наши дни ядерная опасность достигла уровня времён холодной войны и в данный момент «происходит быстрое распространение кризисов с угрожающим ядерным подтекстом».

– При этом он, однако, не назвал, кто конкретно подверг атомным ударам японские города и кто сегодня толкает планету к ядерной войне…

– Да, это так. И первый заместитель постоянного представителя России при ООН Дмитрий Полянский обратил внимание Генерального секретаря на это, подчеркнув, что мир также никогда не должен забывать, что это преступление совершили США, будучи единственной страной, которая применила атомную бомбу против мирных жителей. Это необходимо помнить и потому, что Соединённые Штаты, с одной стороны, до сих пор не признают себя виновными в массовом уничтожении мирного населения в Японии, считая, что это были акты возмездия агрессору. Хотя с военной точки зрения эти ядерные атаки были совершенно бессмысленны – Япония и так бы капитулировала после того, как советские войска разгромили Квантунскую армию.

А с другой – именно США, возмечтавшие о глобальном лидерстве и стремящиеся заставить человечество жить по ими придуманным правилам, вмешиваются во внутренние дела других стран и тем самым порождают конфликты, ведущие к ядерной войне. Более того, для достижения своих целей США готовы применить ядерное оружие. Причём нанести так называемый превентивный ядерный удар. Об этом говорится в американской ядерной стратегии, действующей с 2018 года.

В частности, в ней указывается, что США могут применить ядерное оружие для защиты жизненно важных интересов Соединённых Штатов Америки, союзников и партнёров. На днях это подтвердил американский госсекретарь Энтони Блинкен, заявив, что его страна применит ядерное оружие только в чрезвычайных условиях для защиты жизненных интересов своих и союзников. Если учесть, что к своим союзникам Вашингтон относит половину планеты, то угроза возникновения ядерного конфликта по вине США приобретает практически масштабный характер.

Всего же американская ядерная стратегия содержит 14 обоснований для использования Соединёнными Штатами этого вида оружия массового поражения. Причём половина из них может быть свободно интерпретирована Вашингтоном. К ним относятся изменение геополитической ситуации, появление новых технологий у противоборствующих государств, изменение их военно-стратегических установок и тому подобное.

Эта размытость положений, подразумевающих явную свободу действий в использовании ракетно-ядерного оружия, говорит о безответственном подходе американской администрации к его применению – практически в любое время и в любом месте земного шара. Тому подтверждением служит и тот факт, что США никогда не соглашались взять обязательство о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе, так как считают, что такая политика в настоящее время является неоправданной.

– И США активно готовятся к применению ядерного оружия…

– Причём это происходит сразу же по нескольким направлениям. Одно из них составляет модернизация ядерной триады. В частности, создаётся новый малозаметный стратегический бомбардировщик B-21 «Рейдер», улучшаются межконтинентальные баллистические ракеты шахтного базирования «Минитмен III», разрабатывается новая МБР, создаётся новая атомная подлодка «Колумбия», обновляются запасы тактического ядерного оружия путём принятия на вооружение управляемой термоядерной бомбы B61-12.

Боеприпасы B61-12 имеют переменную мощность заряда – в пределах от 0,3 до 50 килотонн. И это очень важная особенность, так как размещение маломощных боеприпасов ведёт к снижению порога применения ядерного оружия, что в свою очередь повышает угрозу развязывания ядерного конфликта.

Считается, что в первую очередь эти бомбы заменят американский ядерный потенциал, расположенный в Европе на аэродромах Бюхель (ФРГ, земля Рейнланд-Пфальц), Инджирлик (Турция), Авиано и Геди (Италия), Кляйн-Брогель( Бельгия) и Волкель (Нидерланды). Там сейчас находятся в общей сложности около 200 американских ядерных авиабомб В61. Создана и инфраструктура, обеспечивающая оперативное развёртывание этого оружия, которое способно достигать российской территории и поражать широкий спектр целей, включая стратегические.

Страны – члены НАТО тесно взаимодействуют в совместном ядерном планировании. Ими на постоянной основе проводятся учения с условным применением ядерного оружия по программе SNOWCAT, что означает «Поддержка ядерных операций с помощью обычных тактических полётов ВВС», а также по программе учений ВВС НАТО под кодовым обозначением Steadfast Noon («Стойкий полдень»). В ходе этих учений американцы учат тех же немцев, поляков и других союзников по НАТО применению ядерного оружия. Да и многие крупные военные учения Североатлантического союза, проводимые с применением неядерных вооружений, чаще всего завершаются с условным использованием ядерного оружия.

Кроме того, американцы с 2004 года продолжают проводить в небе Литвы, Латвии и Эстонии операцию «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», а с некоторых пор и «Балканское воздушное патрулирование», где задействуются самолёты «двойного назначения», способные нести не только обычные, но и ядерные вооружения. С обострением ситуации вокруг Украины произошло увеличение количества таких боевых самолётов в этих операциях.

– Выступая на обзорной конференции по Договору о нераспространении ядерного оружия (ДНЯО), российские представители заявили, что Соединённые Штаты должны вывести свой ядерный потенциал из третьих стран…

– Излагая эту позицию России, её представители исходили из того, что размещение американского ядерного оружия за пределами США на постоянной основе является прямым нарушением первых двух статей ДНЯО, которые запрещают ядерным государствам размещать ядерное оружие на территориях неядерных государств, а неядерным государствам – давать согласие на его размещение. Как было подчёркнуто, это негативно влияет на безопасность, увеличивая риск ядерного конфликта и препятствует процессу ядерного разоружения.

Более того, заявления Вашингтона по поводу возможности использования ядерного оружия, а также практика совместных ядерных миссий НАТО позволяют сделать вывод, отметил в среду, выступая на конференции, замглавы российской делегации Андрей Белоусов, что от Североатлантического альянса можно ожидать любых оправданий применения таких вооружений. Он напомнил, что итоговая декларация саммита НАТО в Мадриде окончательно закрепила за альянсом статус ядерного военно-политического блока. И сообществу ДНЯО ещё предстоит проанализировать последствия этого обстоятельства, заставляющего иначе взглянуть на статус неядерных членов блока, особенно тех, на территории которых размещено американское ядерное оружие, подчеркнул Белоусов.

 Поэтому Россия и требует, чтобы США вывели своё ядерное оружие на национальную территорию, ликвидировали инфраструктуру его развёртывания в Европе и прекратили практику совместных ядерных миссий НАТО.

С аналогичной позицией выступили на конференции и представители Китая. «Размещение США ядерного оружия и разрешение на его использование с истребителей-бомбардировщиков в чрезвычайных ситуациях – это как раз практика передачи, которая нарушает ДНЯО», – заявил директор отдела контроля над вооружениями МИД Китая Динг Тонгбингэ.

По его словам, Китай считает, что появление ядерного оружия в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе серьёзно подорвёт региональную стабильность и спровоцирует риск конфронтации. И это напрямую затронет стратегические интересы Китая. «США обладают огромным ядерным арсеналом, который всё ещё угрожает региональному и международному миру и безопасности», – подчеркнул китайский дипломат.

Следует также отметить, обзорная конференция по ДНЯО, о которой шла речь выше и которая направлена на то, чтобы обсудить имеющиеся вызовы и будущие угрозы в сфере ядерных вооружений, проводится раз в пять лет. Десятая встреча должна была пройти в Нью-Йорке в мае 2020 года, но из-за пандемии коронавируса была сначала перенесена на август 2021 года, а затем и на этот год. Она началась 1 августа и продлится до 26 августа. Участниками ДНЯО является 191 страна.

– Как бы вы охарактеризовали линию России в области ракетно-ядерных вооружений в целом?

– Она хорошо известна. И в очередной раз была изложена на обзорной конференции по ДНЯО. Наша страна стремится вносить весомый практический вклад в освобождение мира от угрозы, которую несёт ОМП, в том числе ядерное. Россия привержена цели построения мира, свободного от ядерного оружия, с участием всех ядерных и неядерных государств, которые проявят к этому заинтересованность. Выполняя в полном объёме свои соответствующие международные обязательства, прежде всего по ДНЯО, Москва последовательно выступает за сохранение мира и укрепление глобальной безопасности.

В результате проводимых сокращений ракетно-ядерных вооружений суммарный потенциал СНВ Российской Федерации был последовательно сокращён на 85 процентов по сравнению с пиковыми значениями, достигнутыми в 1980-х годах. Россия сократила количество тактического ядерного оружия на три четверти от уровня, которым СССР располагал к 1991 году, на основе «президентских инициатив» с США, то есть вне переговорного процесса. Оно всё было переведено в категорию неразвёрнутого и находится исключительно на национальной территории. При этом оно сосредоточено на централизованных базах хранения, где обеспечивается высокий уровень безопасности.

Взгляды нашей страны на сущность ядерного сдерживания, определения военных опасностей и угроз, для нейтрализации которых оно осуществляется, содержатся в «Основах государственной политики Российской Федерации в области ядерного сдерживания». Данный документ, опубликованный в июне 2020 года, детализировал положения Военной доктрины страны по вопросам ядерного сдерживания и позволил широкой общественности детально ознакомиться с её подходами к их реализации.

Государственная политика России в области ядерного сдерживания носит исключительно оборонительный характер, она направлена на поддержание потенциала ядерных сил на минимальном уровне, обеспечивающем гарантированную защиту суверенитета и территориальной целостности государства, предотвращение агрессии против Российской Федерации и её союзников.

В нынешних условиях важно сдержанное и ответственное поведение ядерных держав. Российская Федерация твёрдо исходит из того, что в ядерной войне не может быть победителей, и по этой причине она никогда не должна быть развязана. Приверженность данному принципу была неоднократно подтверждена российской стороной.

Беседовал Владимир Кузарь. Источник: «Красная звезда»

 

 

США стремятся сохранить своё мировое господство

Создание новой архитектуры контроля над вооружениями возможно только при уважении и учёте коренных интересов безопасности нашей страны.

В последнее время в США стали раздаваться заявления относительно целесообразности возобновления диалога по контролю над вооружениями и создания новой архитектуры безопасности. В частности, недавно на эту тему выступил советник президента США по национальной безопасности Джейк Салливан. Его высказывания в ассоциации по контролю над вооружениями вызвали повышенный интерес со стороны западных СМИ, хотя, как подчеркнула официальный представитель МИД России Мария Захарова, «подобный ажиотаж не совсем оправдан».

«Отмечаем, что каких-либо принципиально новых моментов, которые откликались бы на российские озабоченности и учитывали наши позиции, в них, по сути, нет, – сказала российский дипломат. – Речь идёт о всё тех же по большому счёту неоднократно озвученных призывах к России безотлагательно возобновить взаимодействие с США в области контроля над вооружениями, включая, в частности, выработку нового соглашения на замену Договору о СНВ, срок действия которого истекает в 2026 году».

«Возобновить, естественно, на американских условиях. Хотя Джейк Салливан и попытался завернуть эти призывы в более яркую упаковку и даже обозначил некоторые «бонусы», которые, видимо, должны были сделать их привлекательнее для России, в Вашингтоне по-прежнему продолжают упорно игнорировать причины, которые привели к нынешнему кризису на данном направлении. Представители США продолжают делать вид, что этот кризис никак не связан с той откровенно враждебной к нам американской политикой, которая в конечном итоге приобрела законченную форму тотальной гибридной войны против нашей страны», – указала официальный представитель МИД России.

Чем обусловлены высказывания Салливана? На этот и другие вопросы в интервью «Красной звезде» ответил известный политолог Владимир Козин, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук, автор монографии «Эволюция стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений США и особенности их применения в XXI веке».

– Владимир Петрович, в начале июня советник президента США по национальной безопасности Джейк Салливан выступил с докладом по контролю над ядерными вооружениями, в котором заявил, что «США готовы работать с Россией над тем, как управлять ядерными рисками и разрабатывать архитектуру контроля над вооружениями после 2026 года». Что вы можете сказать по этому поводу?

– Прежде всего хотел бы отметить, что Российская Федерация всегда подчёркивала необходимость обеспечения всеобъемлющего, проверяемого и равноценного контроля над вооружениями на основе принципов равенства и равной безопасности участвующих в этом процессе сторон. Именно такой подход является одним из важнейших факторов обеспечения стратегической стабильности и международной безопасности. И роль России и США в этом вопросе основополагающая. Однако в нынешних условиях, когда США во главе коллективного Запада неспровоцированно развязали против России тотальную гибридную войну, в ходе которой стремятся как можно больше ослабить нашу страну, а если получится, то и разрушить её, то вряд ли будет благоразумным говорить о каком-то диалоге о контроле над вооружением с Вашингтоном.

Не выдерживает никакой критики и приведённый Салливаном пример относительно времён холодной войны. Мол, тогда США и СССР, несмотря на острые разногласия в других областях, будь то по идеологическим вопросам, обстановке в Европе, войне во Вьетнаме или Афганистане, удавалось сотрудничать в сфере контроля над вооружениями по отдельным направлениям. И основой тому, по его словам, служил принцип разведения различных проблем, не смешивая их друг с другом.

Действительно, в годы холодной войны наши страны противоборствовали друг с другом во многих сферах и в то же время сотрудничали в отдельных вопросах контроля над вооружениями. Но сотрудничали, подчеркну это особенно, всё же на равноправной основе и понимании всей опасности возможного конфликта между ними, а не ставили перед собой цель нанести нам «стратегическое поражение». И в этом заключается коренное отличие того периода от нынешнего, когда США возомнили себя мировым гегемоном и стремятся строить международные отношения на придуманных и выгодных им «нормах» или «правилах». С этих же позиций они намерены, и в этом нет никаких сомнений, вести диалог с нами по контролю над вооружениями, что для нас, конечно же, неприемлемо.

– И всё же почему именно сейчас Вашингтон выступил с предложением возобновить диалог по контролю над вооружениями?

– Совершенно очевидно, что все американские заявления на этот счёт продиктованы желанием продемонстрировать на фоне ведущейся агрессии особое «миролюбие» США, их «заботу» о стабильности и безопасности на планете и обвинить Россию, Китай и некоторые другие страны в том, что именно они создают взрывоопасную ситуацию в мире. Собственно говоря, об этом свидетельствует и выступление Салливана, в котором он подверг необоснованной критике действия нашей страны в сфере контроля над вооружениями. Между тем именно США инициативно вышли из договоров по ПРО, о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, о международной торговле оружием…

– В чём всё же заключается суть предложений Салливана?

– Они имеют два измерения: внутренние и внешние. Сначала он чётко высказался за обновление национальной стратегии ядерного сдерживания и планов по модернизации стратегической ядерной триады, усовершенствование командно-управленческой структуры и системы связи с ядерными силами страны. Предложил сделать упор на неядерные средства: гиперзвуковые и ударные космические системы, а также использование киберпространства в военных целях. Но одновременно выступил за ведение переговоров по ядерной проблематике с ведущими ядерными державами «с позиции силы и доверия». То есть на основе взаимоисключающих принципов. Переговоры с позиции силы никогда не укрепляли доверие. В то же время переговоры на основе доверия не требуют их ведения с позиции силы.

С другой стороны, демонстрируя на словах готовность американского военно-политического руководства не допустить развязывания ядерной войны, Салливан изложил некоторые новые, но весьма ограниченные по формату подходы к выборочному решению ряда вопросов по контролю над ядерными вооружениями. Так, он поведал о готовности Вашингтона заблаговременно уведомлять Россию о пусках баллистических ракет и основных стратегических учениях США, вступить «в дискуссию» по устранению ядерных рисков и определению рамок контроля над вооружениями после 2026 года, создать каналы кризисной связи между столицами пяти постоянных членов Совета Безопасности ООН.

– И как бы вы охарактеризовали эти предложения?

– Прежде всего очевидно то, что для всех них характерны неопределённость, недосказанность и отсутствие ясности. Например, предлагается приложить «новые усилия» в сфере многостороннего контроля над вооружениями с участием пяти ядерных держав. При этом не указано, к чему сводятся такие усилия. Или предложено установить режим направления уведомлений о пусках ракет между пятью ядерными державами. А согласовано ли такое предложение с Великобританией и Францией? По этому поводу ничего не было сказано.

Ничего не говорится и относительно того, каковы должны обязательства по открытости в ядерной политике, ядерных стратегиях и финансировании ядерных программ сторон – будут ли они открытыми или закрытыми для общественности и передаваться в каком объёме. Или что это за «ограничения» (или лимиты) для управления взаимодействием между стратегическими потенциалами в неядерном оснащении и ядерным сдерживанием?

В то же время очевидно, что США намерены повышать свой ядерный потенциал и НАТО в целом в районах передового базирования альянса относительно Российской Федерации и Республики Беларусь, а также то, что Североатлантический альянс продолжит проведение учений по применению ядерных вооружений. Салливан также не уточнил: какие наиболее опасные виды ядерных вооружений Пентагон откажется развёртывать.

В озвученных предложениях полностью отсутствует позиция США о возможности изменения стратегии нанесения первого ядерного удара по России и КНР на основе концепции «запуск по предупреждению», по предотвращению гонки вооружений в космосе, по развёртыванию американской глобальной системы ПРО и по ряду других проблем контроля над вооружениями.

Другими словами, все озвученные Салливаном предложения являются лишь предварительными и постановочными, то есть обозначенными без разъяснений. Естественно, что они потребуют дополнительной детализации и практической конкретизации с американской стороны, в частности, с изложением особенностей их реализации. Выдвинутые предложения носят селективный, а иными словами, выборочный характер, поскольку в них не сформулированы подходы США к другим направлениям контроля над ядерными и неядерными вооружениями. Идеи Салливана вызывают больше дополнительных вопросов, чем дают какие-то ответы по существу.

Просматриваются и две главные, тщательно закамуфлированные цели американского военно-политического руководства. Во-первых, высказанные идеи призваны любыми средствами втянуть в диалог по контролю над ракетно-ядерными вооружениями КНР и поставить её ядерные вооружения под контроль трёх ядерных держав НАТО. Во-вторых, целью изложенных предложений является ослабление национальной безопасности Российской Федерации и КНР не только за счёт ограничения их ядерного потенциала, но и перспективных неядерных вооружений стратегического характера.

И в заключение хочу ещё раз подчеркнуть, что диалог о контроле над вооружениями возможен только при уважении и учёте коренных интересов безопасности нашей страны.

Беседовал Владимир Кузарь. Источник:  «Красная звезда».

 

 

США требуют инспекций по договору СНВ-3. Нет оснований

В последнее время Вашингтон усилил требования о проведении американских инспекций на российских ракетно-ядерных объектах, предусмотренных Договором СНВ-3, подписанном в Праге в 2010 году. Именно усилил свои требования, а не просьбы. В чем же дело?

Американские «аргументы»

Государственный департамент, а также научно-исследовательские  структуры в США обвинили России в том, что она не допускает американских инспекторов на российскую территорию с целью проверки наших национальных ракетно-ядерных объектов, как этот предусмотрено Договором СНВ-3.

Перед такими заявлениями американское внешнеполитическое ведомство в конце января этого года направило в Конгресс доклад об осуществлении договора, в котором Россия обвиняется, среди прочего, в блокировании очередных американских инспекций на нашей территории. Американская сторона также высказала критику по поводу того, что Москва в ноябре отложила проведение на неопределенный срок заседание Совместной консультативной комиссии (СКК) сторон, созданной по условиям этого же договора.

В Государственном департаменте объяснили требование о проведении очередной американской инспекции на российской территории положениями Пражского договора, а в более предметном ключе – желанием проверить факт «наращивания» Москвой ядерных боезарядов стратегического назначения в последнее время. Известный прием. Сначала ложное утверждение, как правило, через СМИ. Затем проверка с пристрастием. Далее требование о выборочном сокращении российских СНВ.

В этой связи необходимо сделать два предварительных замечания.

Во-первых, такие проверки действительно предусмотрены названным договорным актом. Во-вторых, российская сторона на самом деле заявила о переносе заседания СКК на неопределенный срок.

Реакция Москвы на требования американской стороны

Посол Российской Федерации в США Анатолий Антонов в специально сделанном заявлении по этому поводу отметил, что Москва безукоризненно соблюдает Договор СНВ-3 на протяжении всех лет после его вступления в силу, причем, делает это в отличие от Соединённых Штатов, которые нелегитимно вывели более сотни стратегических систем вооружений из-под его действия. Глава российского дипломатического представительства подчеркнул, что эти действия американцев касаются центральных ограничений СНВ по договору и подрывают его ключевую цель – поддержание сторонами выверенного баланса по этим видам ракетно-ядерных вооружений.

Как видно, обвиняя Москву в несоблюдении условий этого документа, американская сторона пытается в очередной раз разогреть антироссийскую кампанию, чтобы найти обоснование самой не соблюдать обязательства по этому договорному акту. А таких нарушений со стороны США насчитывается немало.

«В нынешних условиях считаем неоправданным, несвоевременным и неуместным приглашать американских военных на наши стратегические объекты», – заявил российский посол. Что это за «нынешние условия», о которых он напомнил в столь кратком виде?

Стратегические инспекции? А за какие заслуги?

Никаких позитивных заслуг у американской стороны не было и нет по многим критически важным направлениям глобальной, региональной и двусторонней повестке дня. Зато есть сплошной негатив.

Во-первых, накопилось слишком много проблем в сфере стратегической стабильности.

Если учесть, что в ответ на наши предложения о «гарантиях безопасности», переданных в декабре прошлого года Соединенным Штатам и НАТО, последние предоставили нам ответ, который был квалифицирован нами как ответ о «гарантиях опасности». Когда США негативно относятся к 15 двусторонним и многосторонним договорам по контролю над вооружениями. И когда они имеют действующие ключевые военные стратегии, в которых Россия значится как «враг номер один» или «враг номер два», да еще с концепцией нанесения первого ядерного удара. А также с учетом того, что все американские администрации отказываются ограничивать национальные противоракетные и ударные космические вооружения. На каком основании Москва может идти навстречу Вашингтону по стратегическим инспекциям, когда Соединенные Штаты использовали воздушное пространство Украины и Литвы для патрулирования своей тяжелой стратегической авиации в непосредственной близости, соответственно, от континентальной части России с юга и ее Калининградской области на западе? А ведь такая авиация однозначно сертифицирована под доставку СНВ.

Во-вторых, нам нельзя не учитывать полный застой в области наших двусторонних отношениях.

Когда США инициативно и безосновательно опустили их «ниже плинтуса». Ввели необоснованные торгово-экономические и индивидуальные санкции против России. Мировым стандартам противоречит энергетическая и финансовая блокада, возведенная американской стороной против нас.  Кругом культивируется оголтелая руссофобия, распространяются злобные слухи о России и ее политике. Коллективный Запад стал добираться до нашей культуры, спорта и конфессий, действующих конструктивно и солидарно в России.

В-третьих, нельзя игнорировать политику США на украинском направлении. Она остается слишком опасной для нашей национальной безопасности.

На каком основании Москва может давать согласие на приезд американских инспекторов с целью осмотра наиболее чувствительных (в данном контексте – наиболее секретных) видов российских стратегических ядерных вооружений в условиях, когда Соединенные Штаты и их союзники по НАТО вместе с Украиной ведут комбинированную прямую агрессию против Российской Федерации?

Когда Соединенные Штаты и их союзники по НАТО поставляют ультра-националистическому украинскому режиму огромное количество тяжелых видов вооружений и боеприпасов к ним, которыми с апреля 2014 года по февраль 2023 года были убиты около 19 тысяч мирных граждан и разрушены десятки тысяч домов и социально-значимых объектов только на Донбассе. Когда Соединенные Штаты создали на украинской территории десятки секретных лабораторий по производству и проверке эффективности биологического (бактериологического) и токсинного оружия, которое предполагалось применить против граждан России. А также по-прежнему науськивают Киев, чтобы тот военным путем «вернул себе Крым и Донбасс».

Резюме

Если Соединенные Штаты до сих пор не поняли всей этой ситуации, то они могут призадуматься о самом простом исходе для них в связи с Договором СНВ-3: пока они не исправят в лучшую сторону все то, что перечислено выше, то свой инспекционный аппарат они могут попридержать у себя дома еще очень долго. Не окажут на нас никакого воздействия и вашингтонские страшилки о непоявлении в каком-то виде Договора СНВ-4 или о досрочном выходе США из Пражского договора, срок действия которого закончится 5 февраля 2026 года. То есть, очень скоро.

Автор: В.П. Козин – член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России

 

США увлеклись ядерными сценариями

Американские эксперты периодически вбрасывают в СМИ разного рода «сценарии» применения ядерного оружия как самими Соединенными Штатами, так и Россией. Такие сценарии подразделяются на две категории.
 
Одни сценарии содержат апокалиптические прогнозы последствия взаимного применения ядерного оружия Вашингтоном и Москвой с точки зрения потенциальных человеческих жертв, губительных природно-климатических явлений с заражением значительных площадей флоры и фауны, а также уничтожения большого количества энергетических, транспортных и иных объектов, а также мест проживания людей. В таких сценариях ставятся на одну доску и США, и Россия, но без указания, кто первым начал обмен ядерными ударами.
 
Главное в них – это предполагаемый итог применения ракетно-ядерных средств для всего живого на нашей планете и созданной инфраструктуры. Западными экспертами уже давно разработаны прогнозы наступления «ядерной зимы», «ядерной осени» и «ядерного лета» после масштабного применения ядерных потенциалов, то есть рассчитан примерный температурный режим в той или иной местности после выпадения сажи, гигантских пожаров и радиоактивного заражения местности.
 
Другие сценарии «находят» потенциального инициатора применения ядерного оружия, где в подавляющих случаях значится только Россия.
 
За последние пять лет в средствах массовой информации государств, входящих в НАТО, было размещено до десяти подобных сценариев, в которых инициатором развязывания локальной ядерной войны называется российская сторона. Про представлению авторов подобных сценариев Москва, мол, будет действовать по одной и той же схеме: с целью защиты русскоязычного населения в трех государствах Балтии ее ядерные силы нанесут первый ядерный удар по Латвии, Литве и Эстонии для того, чтобы те прекратили «притеснения» русскоговорящих жителей.
 
В западном экспертном сообществе появились и математические модели, которые касаются применения ядерных боезарядов неназванным государством, например, против Амстердама (мощностью в 20 мегатонн) и Вашингтона (5 килотонн). В «амстердамском» сценарии гибнут все жители этого крупного европейского мегаполиса и прилегающих районов. А по данным американского конгресса, обнародованным в прошлом году, подрыв только одного ядерного боезаряда в 5 килотонн над столицей США может привести к гибели 80 тысяч ее жителей и причинить ранения еще 120 тысячам человек.
 
Для чего же пишутся такие драматические сценарии?
Предположительно они создаются с двумя основными целями.
 
Во-первых, для усиления протеста антиядерных движений, действующих в различных государствах мира и, во-вторых, для создания в лице России образа врага, которая, мол, спит и видит как бы применить свое ядерное оружие тактического назначения и боезаряды малой мощности, к которым в США относят боезаряды с мощностью от 5 килотонн и меньше. Во втором случае одновременно просматривается стремление авторов таких сценариев отвести огонь общественно-политической критики от Соединенных Штатов, которые в период деятельности администрации Дональда Трампа заявили о своей готовности использовать именно боезаряды малой мощности в различных локальных конфликтах, а также против Российской Федерации и даже против Республики Беларусь, которая является безъядерным государством.
 
В описанных сценариях Пентагон уже не раз заявлял о возможности применения боезарядов воздушного и морского базирования малой мощности.
 
По данным, которыми располагает датский эксперт в области американского ядерного оружия Ганс Кристенсен, работающий в Федерации американских ученых, Соединенные Штаты имеют на вооружении уже около 1000 ядерных боезарядов малой мощности, которые могут нести на борту американские самолеты F-15, F-16, B-1 и B-2, а в перспективе и новый тяжелый стратегический бомбардировщик нового поколения В-21 Рейдер.
 
На этом фоне иногда раздаются голоса и среди тех западных экспертов, которые опасаются применения любого вида ядерного оружия любым государством – будь то в локальном или в более широком ядерном конфликте.
 
Недавно профессор Мичиганского технологического университета Джошуа Пирс опубликовал исследование, в котором отметил, что даже безответный ядерный удар США по России с использованием сотни ядерных боезарядов может стать губительным для самих американцев из-за огромного количества сажи и пепла, что вызовет глобальное похолодание и падение объемов производства сельскохозяйственной продукции.
 
Но есть и более зловещие модели. Несколько лет назад в американской прессе была даже опубликована карта с указанием конкретных мест нанесения американских ядерных ударов по территории России и КНР.
 
Россия не практикует публикацию подобного рода сценариев, какими бы благовидными предлогами они ни оправдывались. Было бы хорошо, если бы и другие государства мира также воздерживались от такой порочной практики. США ведут себя безответственно и неприемлемо, разрабатывая сценарии обмена ядерными ударами с Россией и допуская свою победу в случае ядерной войны, заявил на днях заместитель главы МИД Сергей Рябков.
 
Москва высказывается за то, чтобы накануне или во время открывающейся 27 апреля Обзорной конференции Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия страны - постоянные члены Совета Безопасности ООН выступили с совместным заявлением о недопустимости ядерной войны.
 
 
Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: InfoБалтика
 

США: Новый фактор давления на Россию и Донбасс

Профессиональное обнаружение российским ВМФ американской атомной подводной лодки (ПЛА) класса «Вирджиния» в погруженном состоянии у одного из островов российской Курильской гряды 12 февраля, а также появление четырех тяжелых стратегических бомбардировщиков США В-52Н на британской военно-воздушной базе Фэрфорд, говорят о том, что Вашингтон не только накачивает Украину различными видами смертоносных вооружений, но и пытается поддержать ее особыми видами ударных вооружений наступательного характера, которые он не может передать ВСУ по определению.

Появление американской ПЛА в российских водах, то есть с незаконным пересечением морской государственной границы Российской Федерации, а также переброска бомбардировщиков США В-52Н, сертифицированных под доставку ядерных боезарядов, на британские острова, означает появление двух новых факторов в инициативном и опасном противостоянии Соединенных Штатов с Россией из-за попытки Вашингтона подтолкнуть Киев к масштабной военной авантюре – третьей по счету вооруженной агрессии украинского режима против граждан ДНР и ЛНР.

Фактор первый. Это появление американских ударных средств морского базирования близ российского побережья в виде ПЛА класса «Вирджиния», которые оснащены крылатыми ракетами большой дальности и торпедами. Немаловажно учесть, что они, как правило, сопровождают атомные субмарины США другого класса – класса «Огайо», несущие на борту межконтинентальные баллистические ракеты с ядерными боезарядами стратегического назначения. Недаром российское Министерство обороны расценило такую преднамеренную акцию, осуществленную ПЛА «Вирджиния», не только как грубое нарушение норм международного права, но и как создавшую угрозу национальной безопасности Российской Федерации.

Фактор второй. Это очередное появление в Европе названных тяжелых стратегических бомбардировщиков США, которые в дальнейшем, как правило, продолжают свои полеты либо над Балтикой, приземляясь в Эстонии, либо в зоне Черного моря, следуя через воздушное пространство Украины. То есть, налицо появление ядерного фактора над европейским континентом.

По признанию Европейского командования Соединенных Штатов, основная задача переброски именно указанных самолетов, относящихся к стратегическим наступательным ядерным вооружениям, состоит «в координации нанесения авиаударов с целью поддержки сухопутных сил». Не украинских ли? А нанесения авиаударов по какому государству?

Одновременно группировка В-52Н усиливает операцию ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» в небе Литвы, Латвии, Польши и Эстонии, в которой задействованы самолеты «двойного назначения», способные нести обычные и ядерные авиабомбы.

Не пора ли Вашингтону перестать перекладывать ответственность за создание гарантированной опасности в этой части света по принципу «с больной головы на здоровую»? То есть, постоянно ставить заезженную пластинку о «неминуемой агрессии России против Украины», одновременно припрятывая подготовку Киева к реальной агрессии против двух республик Донбасса, не желающих жить под одной крышей с несостоятельным, антидемократическим, ультранационалистическим и милитаристским государством.

Порог применения оружия в этой части света понижается с каждым днем. С сохранением этой пагубной тенденции в будущем. По признанию нынешнего министра обороны Украины Олексия Резникова, к 13 февраля на Украину уже доставлено 1200 тонн различных военных грузов из США и других государств Североатлантического союза на пятнадцати транспортных самолетах большой грузоподъемности. Ожидается прибытие еще, по меньшей мере, тридцати таких авиасредств с натовскими вооружениями и боеприпасами для ВСУ. То есть, для совершения вооруженной агрессии против Донбасса.

Не лучше ли будет не направлять Киев на путь совершения вооруженной агрессии против ДНР и ЛНР, которая преследует две главные цели:

1) вернуть территорию Донбасса с помощью государственного терроризма и геноцида проживающего там мирного населения и

2) сорвать переговоры России с Соединенными Штатами и НАТО по выработке гарантий безопасности?

Не лучше ли было бы вообще деэскалировать до полного окончания искусственно созданную опасную военно-политическую ситуацию на европейском континенте, которая угрожает безопасности многих расположенных там стран?

Автор: В.П. Козин – член-корреспондент  РАВН и РАЕН

 

Саммит РФ-США в Женеве: шансы на успех остаются незначительными

Накопленный солидный опыт проведения советско-американских и российско-американских встреч на высшем уровне показывает, что обе стороны проводили как перспективные, так и бесперспективные встречи руководителей сторон

Перспективные, то есть саммиты, на которых принимались конкретные политические решения, проводились при заблаговременной и продолжительной подготовке, в ходе которой обе стороны были настроены на подписание заранее обговорённых документов в виде деклараций и различных договорных актов в виде договоров и соглашений.

Бесперспективные саммиты заранее не предусматривали достижение каких-то практических договорённостей, а лишь имели примерную повестку дня обмена мнениями, которая совпадала лишь отчасти в силу того, что каждая из сторон предполагала обсудить только те вопросы, которые её беспокоили в наибольшей степени.

Перспективными вполне можно считать встречи высших руководителей Советского Союза и США, на которых, например, были подписаны декларации о предотвращении ядерной войны и выработаны договоры по ограничению, а затем и по сокращению стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений, а также ликвидации ядерных ракет средней и меньшей дальности. С другой стороны, бесперспективными оказались саммиты, проведённые с американскими президентами Бараком Обамой и Дональдом Трампом, на которых не было достигнуто никаких политически значимых результатов.

По негативным итогам проведения бесперспективных российско-американских саммитов в прошлом можно предположить, что на выработку конкретных решений на грядущей встрече президентов России и США, которые должны состояться в Женеве 16 июня этого года, в особенности в сфере укрепления стратегической стабильности и контроля над вооружениями, пока остаётся слишком мало шансов. Предвидя такую ситуацию, на полях Петербургского международного экономического форума Владимир Путин заявил руководителям ведущих мировых информационных агентств, что не ждёт прорывов от этого саммита, но выразил при этом надежду на то, что его встреча с американским визави будет «конструктивной».

Повестка дня Женевы: почувствуйте разницу взглядов

Есть ли шансы на успех? Таких шансов маловато.

Об этом говорят публично распространяемые расплывчатые формулировки самим президентом США и высокопоставленными представителями его администрации, которые касаются обозначенных двух направлений, органически связанных друг с другом, но в понятие которых Джозеф Байден до сих пор не вкладывает никаких практических развязок. Это укрепление стратегической стабильности и контроль над вооружениями.

Складывается впечатление, что Джозеф Байден намерен проводить на женевской встрече жёсткую обвинительную линию в отношении России и навязывать ей дискуссию, выгодную только Белому дому и НАТО, причём сопровождаемую менторским тоном, не терпящим никаких возражений.

Особенностью женевского саммита является то, что стороны имеют разные представления о повестке дня беседы. «Мы будем обсуждать вопросы двусторонних отношений. Я исхожу из того, что мы должны попытаться найти пути урегулирования этих отношений. Сегодня они находятся на чрезвычайно низком уровне, мы это всё хорошо знаем», - аккуратно формулировал Владимир Путин.

«Мы будем говорить о стратегической стабильности, об урегулировании международных конфликтов в наиболее горячих точках, о процессах разоружения, о борьбе с терроризмом, надеюсь, о борьбе с пандемией и о вопросах экологического характера. Это примерная повестка дня», - заявил на Петербургском международном экономическом форуме российский президент.

По его мнению, обе стороны должны попытаться найти пути урегулирования российско-американских отношений. Сегодня они находятся «на чрезвычайном низком уровне», признал Владимир Путин. «Очень рассчитываю на то, что наша встреча пройдёт в позитивном ключе. Я не ожидаю ничего прорывного в российско-американских отношениях, ничего такого, что могло бы нас всех поразить своими результатами», - заявил российский лидер.

В своём интервью за несколько дней до встречи с Джозефом Байденом он заявил, что в первую очередь стороны намерены восстановить личные контакты и прямой диалог, а также создать реально функционирующие механизмы по направлениям, в которых Россия и США имеют взаимные интересы. По словам Владимира Путина, саммит не пройдёт напрасно, если удастся создать механизмы взаимодействия по различным направлениям. Среди них президент назвал стратегическую стабильность, региональные конфликты, глобальную экологию, а также сотрудничество в области экономики.

У Джозефа Байдена на повестку дня контакта в Женеве прослеживался другой взгляд.

Да, он тоже признал необходимость нормализации отношений Вашингтона с Москвой, но на условиях американской стороны. Он, как и предыдущие президенты Соединённых Штатов, мол, готов к этому. Но он не готов расчистить завалы военных приготовлений, в частности, нагромождённых Белым домом у российских рубежей, а также в двусторонних отношениях с Россией в целом.

Будет предпринята попытка «загнать Россию в угол» в связи с судебным решением по делу Алексея Навального, с требованием «прекратить агрессию на Украине» и «не вмешиваться во внутриполитические процессы» в Белоруссии. Лидеры «семёрки», собравшиеся на британской территории за несколько дней до российско-американского саммита, продемонстрировали своё неприкрытое вмешательство во внутренние дела Белоруссии, призвав провести там новые президентские выборы.

Каким образом нынешний американский президент намерен добиваться успеха на женевской встрече на высшем уровне, если он заранее создаёт для неё мрачную атмосферу, обвиняя Россию и КНР во «вредных действиях», и вновь заявляя о твёрдых намерениях проводить политику на международной арене «с позиции силы»?

Похоже, что его администрация не намерена достигать солидных практических договорённостей на предстоящем саммите в Женеве и по проблематике укрепления стратегической стабильности и контроля над вооружениями. По мнению американского телеканала NBC News, Вашингтон по итогам предстоящей американо-российской встречи в верхах рассчитывает продемонстрировать жёсткий подход, отличный от того, который ранее проявил предыдущий американский лидер Дональд Трамп. 

А можно ли нормализовать отношения, если Байден заранее настроен против России?

В апреле, а затем в начале июня этого года Джозеф Байден объявил, что на женевском саммите стороны должны обменяться мнениями по стратегической стабильности и контролю над вооружениями.

Объявил, но вновь без детализации. Нет сомнений в том, что он будет говорить на эти темы исключительно с точки зрения американских глобальных интересов. Да он и не может действовать иначе. Все действующие пять ключевых военно-стратегических установок США, а именно: стратегия национальной безопасности, стратегия национальной обороны, ядерная стратегия, стратегия противоракетной обороны и космическая стратегия имеют агрессивный характер и направлены против национальных интересов России и КНР, а также ряда других государств. И Джозеф Байден не может отменить все эти стратегии или радикально изменить их «за один присест».

Более предметно высказался в мае на эту тему представитель США на Конференции по разоружению в Женеве Роберт Вуд, который сообщил, что американская сторона затронет вопросы, связанные со всеми видами ядерных вооружений России, в том числе её новые виды стратегических вооружений и проблематику тактического ядерного оружия, по которому Москва, мол, значительно опережает Вашингтон. В последнем случае не будет выявлена географическая разница в его размещении обеими сторонами: Пентагон размещает тактические ядерные потенциалы не только на своей территории, но и за рубежом, а Россия - исключительно на своей территории.

В своей краткой статье в «Вашингтон пост», опубликованной 6 июня этого года в колонке «Мнение», Джозеф Байден утверждал, что Соединённые Штаты «не стремятся к конфликту».

Но педалируя эту тему, Белый дом до сих пор не поставил вопрос о прекращении полётов тяжёлой стратегической авиации в небе Европы и Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона вблизи российских границ (аэродромы для неё предоставили 19 государств-членов НАТО), о выводе тактического ядерного оружия США с территории четырёх государств европейского континента и азиатской части Турции, о прекращении наращивания потенциала противоракетной обороны и тяжёлых видов вооружений в районах передового базирования относительно территории России.

Вашингтон ничего не заявил по поводу контролирования собственных гиперзвуковых систем повышенной дальности.

Не собирается Пентагон прекращать операцию ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» в четырёх государствах альянса, которые используют самолёты «двойного назначения», то есть способные нести на борту ядерное оружие.

Не ожидается прорывных инициатив с американской стороны в сфере предотвращения размещения оружия в космическом пространстве и внесения радикальных изменений в ключевые военные стратегии США, в частности, в стратегии национальной обороны и национальной безопасности, а также в ядерную, противоракетную и космическую стратегии, которые носят агрессивно-наступательный характер, делают ставку на силу и их военное доминирование в мире.

Белый дом выступает против принятия обязательства о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе. По-прежнему высказывается за повышение роли ядерного оружия в глобальной политике страны на основе безусловного наступательного ядерного сдерживания. Ныне действующая американская ядерная стратегия содержит 14 оснований применения ядерного оружия, в том числе восемь оснований под нарочито туманно сформулированными предлогами.

Двусторонние отношения между Российской Федерацией и Соединёнными Штатами Америки достигли низшего уровня за последние несколько лет. Такое заключение сделал российский лидер Владимир Путин в интервью телеканалу NBC News, которое было передано в российских СМИ за два дня до саммита.

Джозеф Байден выразил согласие с такой точкой зрения, но не предложил практически ничего для исправления создавшегося положения. Симптоматично, что он отказался провести совместную пресс-конференцию с Владимиром Путиным по итогам их беседы в Женеве.

Огромные расходы на военные цели

Нынешнее военное-политическое руководство Соединённых Штатов продолжает курс прежней республиканской администрации на повышение расходов на военные цели, в особенности на ракетно-ядерные и космические вооружения, а также на гиперзвуковое оружие повышенной дальности.

В ближайшие десять лет (2021-2030 гг.) США израсходуют 634 млрд долларов на поддержание в высокой степени боеготовности национального ядерного оружия и его модернизацию, что на 28% превысит аналогичный показатель, запланированный на 2019-2029 гг. при президенте Д. Трампе. В бюджет Пентагона на 2022 финансовый год на развитие системы ПРО закладывается 17,7 млрд долларов, в то время как на 2019 финансовый год этот показатель достигал 12,9 млрд долларов.

В данном контексте стоит также отметить, что американские военные расходы равны суммарному количеству военных ассигнований десяти стран мира, в списке которых значатся остальные четыре великие державы.

В общей сложности нынешняя американская администрация демонстрирует негативное отношение к 15 двусторонним и многосторонним договорным актам в области контроля над вооружениями.  Но Джозеф Байден бездоказательно считает, что не Соединённые Штаты, а именно Россия создаёт «вызовы европейской безопасности».

На саммите НАТО 14 июня прозвучал призыв в ещё большей степени нарастить потенциал сдерживания России, повысить боеготовность вооружённых сил альянса и увеличить количество масштабных военных учений, в ходе которых будут проводиться наступательные операции с условным применением ядерного оружия. Воодушевлённый решениями своих партнёров по Североатлантическому союзу за два дня до встречи с Владимиром Путиным, нынешний хозяин Белого дома попытается усилить свои переговорные позиции на женевской встрече.

Выступая 6 июня в газете «Вашингтон пост» со статьёй, в частности, посвящённой женевскому саммиту, Джозеф Байден прямо заявил, что будет выступать «против России» вместе со своими европейскими союзниками.

«ЕГЭ» для «старика Джо» Байдена на саммите

Но, с другой стороны, отдельные американские представители стали предлагать своему президенту отменить саммит в Женеве. Одни высказывают опасения, что российский президент переиграет «старину Джо», поскольку Владимир Путин является сильной и властной личностью, которая знает, что у его американского оппонента есть проблемы с публичными выступлениями и общением с журналистами «без шпаргалки». Мол, этим может умело воспользоваться российский лидер. Другие американские аналитики прогнозируют, что главе Белого дома не удастся достичь никаких успехов для США, а сам он рискует попасть в неловкое положение, что может вызвать критику в стране после его возвращения из европейского турне.

На предстоящей встрече в верхах с США представляется целесообразным сделать особый акцент на обсуждении в прикладном ключе вопросов укрепления стратегической стабильности и решения наиболее назревших проблем контроля над вооружениями, оставив в стороне обмен мнениями по таким вопросам как изменение глобального климата, ситуацию в Беларуси и на Украине, а также обеспечение прав человека в России.

Отложенные вопросы можно поручить прорабатывать парламентским структурам и внешнеполитическим ведомствам двух государств.

Одновременно предлагается решительно и безоговорочно настаивать на возвращении российской дипломатической собственности, захваченной в США, а также снятии всех видов торгово-экономических и финансовых санкций, введённых в отношении России различными американскими администрациями.

Что касается проблематики укрепления стратегической стабильности и оживления процесса контроля над вооружениями, то можно было сделать упор на предложении, чтобы Россия и США взяли двустороннее обязательство о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе, но при условии, что их примеру последуют все остальные семь ядерных государств и не позднее какого-то конкретного срока.

Необходимо поставить перед Джозефом Байденом следующие вопросы:

  • о полном соблюдении Вашингтоном Договора СНВ-3, который он продолжает нарушать;
  • о повторении максимы Горбачёва-Рейгана о невозможности развязывания ядерной войны, так как в ней не будет победителей;
  • о прекращении полётов тяжёлой стратегической авиации США в небе Европы и Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона вблизи российских границ;
  • о полном выводе всего американского тактического ядерного оружия с европейского континента и азиатской части Турции;
  • о закрытии операционной базы системы ПРО США в Румынии и прекращении её строительства в Польше;
  • о прекращении операции ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» в четырёх государствах альянса (Латвии, Литвы, Польши и Эстонии);
  • о предотвращении размещения ударного оружия в космосе.

В случае отказа Джозефа Байдена зафиксировать практические договорённости по всем перечисленным проблемам можно было бы проинформировать мировую общественность об этом на специальной пресс-конференции по итогам саммита. 

Автор: В.П. Козин. Источник: Еженедельник “Звезда”

Саммит Россия - США: только зарницы доверия?

Состоявшаяся встреча на высшем уровне - это начальная фаза на сложном пути к возможному выправлению российско-американских отношений, которые по вине нескольких последних администраций США, если пользоваться американским лексиконом, упали в «глубокий каньон»

Итак, первый саммит между Владимиром Путиным и Джозефом Байденом закончился на мажорной ноте, хотя и с ограниченными результатами. В целом оба лидера положительно охарактеризовали прошедшую встречу.

Владимир Путин, отвечая после саммита на вопросы журналистов, отметил, что на переговорах с обеих сторон было продемонстрировано желание понять друг друга и искать пути к сближению позиций. Но, по образному выражению Владимира Путина, в ходе их беседы промелькнули лишь «зарницы доверия».

В свою очередь, Джозеф Байден отметил, что Москва и Вашингтон должны иметь возможность сотрудничать там, где это отвечает общим интересам. Джозеф Байден высказался против продолжения холодной войны, кстати развязанной самими Соединёнными Штатами и их союзниками по НАТО, но не обозначил способы её преодоления.

Ещё до женевского саммита Белый дом вбросил в СМИ фразу о том, что коллективным силам Запада необходимо противостоять «вредным действиям» Москвы на международной арене. И она сразу же появилась в итоговом документе «Большой семёрки», лидеры которой подтвердили призыв к России прекратить её «дестабилизирующее поведение и вредные действия».

Только первый и скромный шаг

Президенты приняли совместное заявление по стратегической стабильности, в котором они подтвердили приверженность принципу, согласно которому в ядерной войне не может быть победителей, и она никогда не должна быть развязана (заметим: повторение этой формулировки Горбачёва-Рейгана напрочь отвергала предыдущая администрация во главе с Дональдом Трампом).

Зафиксировано, что Москва и Вашингтон «в ближайшее время запустят «комплексный» двусторонний диалог по стратегической стабильности, который, по мнению президентов, будет «предметным и энергичным».

В целом договорённость является весьма краткой и пока даёт лишь некий импульс продолжению дебатов по этой непростой теме, но не обозначает и не решает четырнадцать проблем, накопившихся по инициативе США в этой сфере.

По окончании саммита американский президент высказался о возможности начала работы над новым двусторонним соглашением по сокращению стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений, очевидно имея в виду новый Договор СНВ-4, который может заменить продлённый до февраля 2026 года действующий Договор СНВ-3.

По какой формуле? И на какие системы он будет распространятся? Вашингтон промолчал.

Оба лидера также вышли на договорённости о проведении консультаций по вопросам кибербезопасности, но лишь в общем виде, без детализации, а также о возвращении послов двух стран в соответствующие столицы.

 

Но нет ясности в отношении снятия Вашингтоном дискриминационных и противозаконных торгово-экономических санкций, а также сроков возврата России её дипломатической собственности, захваченной в Соединённых Штатах рейдерским способом.

Судя по объявленным обоими президентами итогам их встречи в Женеве, Москва и Вашингтон сделали только первый и весьма скромный шаг в процессе нормализации двусторонних отношений. Вполне очевидно, что состоявшийся саммит - это начальная фаза на сложном пути к возможному выправлению российско-американских отношений, которые по вине нескольких последних администраций США, если пользоваться американским лексиконом, упали в «глубокий каньон».

Но насколько будут готовы к этому наши американские оппоненты - остаётся под большим вопросом. В свою очередь, американский визави Владимира Путина отметил, что Вашингтон и Москва должны иметь возможность сотрудничать там, где это отвечает «общим интересам». А много ли совпадающих интересов между ними в сфере национальной безопасности?

Два направления и два препятствия

Складывается впечатление, что наиболее сложным направлением в повестке дня последующих переговоров сторон на любом политическом уровне станет проблематика укрепления стратегической стабильности и достижение между ними каких-то новых конкретных и долговременных договорённостей в сфере контроля над вооружениями, где обязательно потребуются чёткие и недвусмысленные юридически и политически обязывающие формулировки.

Но без повышения планки взаимного доверия сие будет весьма затруднительно. Вспыхнувших на женевской вилле, где встречались лидеры, «зарниц доверия» для этого явно маловато.

Кроме того, на этом пути перед Джозефом Байденом и американским Конгрессом будут стоять мощные концептуальные и материальные препятствия, без устранения которых невозможно продвигаться дальше на этих двух треках.

По крайней мере, к таким препятствиям можно отнести, во-первых, действующие агрессивные военно-политические стратегии Соединённых Штатов, выделенные огромные денежные средства на военные нужды и их глобальную военную политику в целом, а, во-вторых, крайне амбициозные решения военно-политического и военно-технического характера, которые были одобрены лидерами НАТО на их саммите в Брюсселе, прошедшем за два дня до российско-американской встречи на высшем уровне.

Итак, американцев будут тянуть от стола переговоров их действующие ключевые военно-стратегических установки.

Их пять. Это стратегии национальной безопасности и национальной обороны, а также ядерная, противоракетная и военно-космическая стратегии. Все они имеют агрессивно-наступательный и явно антироссийский характер.

Сможет ли нынешняя администрация видоизменить их в короткие сроки? Вряд ли. А в более длительной перспективе? Также сомнительно. Но без внесения радикальных изменений в эти основополагающие доктрины они будут служить тормозом для проявления гибкости военного-политического руководства Соединённых Штатов в переговорном процессе по стратегической стабильности и контролю над вооружениями

НАТО останется тормозом контроля над вооружениями

Итоговое коммюнике саммита НАТО от 14 июня также будет создавать завалы на пути консолидации стратегической стабильности и в решении насущных проблем в области контроля над вооружениями. В этом многостраничном документе из 79 пунктов Россия упомянута 62 раза, а КНР - в десяти случаях. Везде в негативном ключе. А Россию вдобавок в некоторых местах обвинили ещё и в «агрессивных действиях».

Но дело не только в этом.

Итоговое коммюнике НАТО «трансатлантической солидарности» дало «зелёный свет» широким военным приготовлениям альянса, где Вашингтон играет партию «первой скрипки». Документ закрепляет дестабилизацию глобальной безопасности и блокирует решение целого ряда проблем в сфере сокращения ядерных и обычных вооружений и ограничения военной деятельности в районах «передового базирования» относительно Российской Федерации.

Североатлантический союз подтвердил формулировку своего чикагского саммита 2012 года об адекватном сочетании ядерных и обычных сил и средств, а также сил и средств противоракетной обороны.

Из этого документа следует, что нынешняя администрация США не будет выводить американское тактическое ядерное оружие из Европы и азиатской части Турции, а также морские и наземные средства ПРО и тяжёлые вооружения из зон «передового базирования». Не будет отменена масштабная круглосуточная операция ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование», в которой принимают участие самолёты «двойного назначения» трёх ядерных держав Запада, способные нести на борту как обычные виды ракетно-бомбовых вооружений, так и ядерное оружие в виде корректируемых авиабомб.

Соединённые Штаты продолжат рассматривать космическое пространство в качестве зоны военных действий, в котором должно быть обеспечено американское военное доминирование.

Для успокоения европейцев, которые уже почти 70 лет находятся под дамокловым мечом ядерных вооружений США, размещённых на европейском континенте, в итоговом коммюнике брюссельского саммита НАТО записано, что альянс не имеет намерения развёртывать «ядерные ракеты наземного базирования в Европе». Но ракет с какой дальностью стрельбы это касается? Разъяснений не последовало. С другой стороны, Соединённые Штаты, как и их партнёры по трансатлантическому союзу, не поддержали в этом документе российское предложение о введении взаимного моратория на размещение ядерных ракет в районах, где они пока не развёрнуты. Обещание альянса о неразмещении ядерных ракет в Европе сразу же натыкается на его отказ от предложенного моратория. Явное противоречие. И как это понять?

Можно выразить сожаление, что заявление российского президента на пресс-конференции 16 июня о том, что необходимо ограничивать некий «страшный» вид вооружений и выработать «общие правила» его неприменения не вызвало уточняющих вопросов со стороны журналистского корпуса, освещавшего женевский саммит Россия-США. Если речь идёт о взаимном обязательстве о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе, то действующая ядерная стратегия США не допускает его принятие.

Брюссельский саммит НАТО зафиксировал рост военных расходов, сохранение масштабов и периодичность проведения военных манёвров в Европе, где отрабатываются наступательные операции и способы применения ядерного оружия стратегического и тактического назначения. Подтверждена реализация инициативы об усилении готовности НАТО, предусматривающей включение 30 крупных военно-морских кораблей, 30 тяжёлых и средних манёвренных батальонов и 30 боевых воздушных эскадрилий. Открыто ставится задача ведения «интенсивных боевых действий или на случай срочного военного кризисного вмешательства». Против кого?

Автор: В.П. Козин. Источник: Еженедельник “Звезда”

Саммит в Хельсинки: есть ли свет в конце туннеля?

Хотя руководители России и США Владимир Путин и Дональд Трамп, подробно побеседовавшие между собой в уютном президентском дворце в центре финской столицы 16 июля, дали своему первому полноформатному контакту в целом позитивные оценки, тем не менее, официальные точки зрения и российской, и американской стороны на произошедшее событие можно квалифицировать в лапидарном виде четырьмя словами: осторожный и весьма ограниченный оптимизм.

После хельсинского саммита оба президента не подписали никаких итоговых документов даже декларативного характера – ни общих деклараций, ни совместных заявлений, ни даже краткого коммюнике. Они ограничились только изложением своих национальных позиций на прошедшей после встречи пресс-конференции в своих вступительных частях, а также ответили на весьма ограниченный по количеству и по времени круг вопросов представителей СМИ. «Двусторонние отношения переживают сложный период», признал Владимир Путин. «Наши отношения никогда не были хуже тех, которые мы видим сейчас», посетовал Дональд Трамп.

Обратило на себя внимание и то обстоятельство, что в то время как глава российского государства отразил в своем выступлении проблематику стратегической стабильности в целом, которую надо укреплять, а также упомянул о возможности обсуждения вопроса о продлении срока действия Договора СНВ-3, обмена мнениями относительно противоракетной обороны и соблюдения Договора о ликвидации РСМД, а также тематики размещения оружия в космосе, то его американский визави предпочел вообще не распространяться на эти темы – даже хотя бы по какой-то касательной траектории. Но сел на своего любимого конька – заговорил только о северокорейской ракетно-ядерной проблеме, которую целенаправленно инициировали его предшественники.

Сухая статистика говорит о больших барьерах, которые могут стоять на пути выправления и последующей нормализации российско-американских отношений «без потери лица» российской стороны и без ее значительных уступок Соединенным Штатам. Бесспорные факты свидетельствуют о следующем:

  • Вашингтон продолжает нарушать отдельные положения Договора СНВ-3, в частности, американские военные скрытно переоборудовали под установку ракет-перехватчиков противоракетной обороны шахтные пусковые установки, размещенные на континентальной части страны и предназначавшиеся для загрузки МБР; Пентагон сохранил 450 шахтных пусковых установок (ШПУ) под 400 МБР, не представляет российской стороне информацию о предназначении и задачах МБР и БРПЛ, оснащенных неядерными  боезарядами, сохраняет возможности по приданию стратегическим тяжелым бомбардировщикам «В-1В» вторичного ядерного статуса; была переоборудована часть пусковых установок БРПЛ «Трайдент-2» и тяжелых бомбардировщиков «В-52Н» таким образом, что российская сторона не может подтвердить приведение этих СНВ в состояние, непригодное для использования БРПЛ и ядерного вооружения тяжелых бомбардировщиков, а также  были произвольно переквалифицированы в категорию «учебных шахт» некоторые ШПУ, что не предусмотрено Договором СНВ-3.

 

  • С 2001 года по настоящее время США нарушали 93 раза Договор о ликвидации РСМД при тестировании системы ПРО, когда в качестве перехватываемых целей они использовали запрещенные им ракеты средней и меньшей дальности (для сравнения: у России ноль нарушений такого договора; все предъявленные ей эпизоды ее «несоблюдения» договора до сих пор никем и ничем не доказаны).

 

  • Соединенные Штаты нарушили, не ратифицировали, денонсировали и отказались обсуждать 12 двусторонних и многосторонних договоров в сфере контроля над вооружениями.

 

  • США и НАТО накопили в общей сложности 15 нерешенных проблем в области контроля над вооружениями, в частности, Вашингтон наотрез отказывается обсуждать проблемы полного вывода национального тактического ядерного оружия с территории пяти зарубежных государств, предотвращения размещения оружия в космическом пространстве и введения ограничений на ударно-боевые средства противоракетной обороны.

 

  • В новой американской ядерной стратегии имеются 14 оснований для применения ядерного оружия, в то время как у России – только два. Причем, Соединенные Штаты, в отличие от Российской Федерации, по-прежнему придерживаются доктрины «безусловного наступательного ядерного сдерживания», которая предусматривает нанесение первого «упреждающего и превентивного» ядерного удара, а также привержены «расширенной ядерной стратегии» и имеют соглашения «о разделении ядерной ответственности» с многими неядерными членами Североатлантического союза.

 

Вашингтон и Киев уже отвергли идею Москвы о проведении референдума на Донбассе. А именно такое предложение прозвучало с российской стороны на саммите 16 июля. Зато практически сразу после его завершения поступило сообщение о готовности США направить Украине дополнительную военную «помощь». Это означает, что Вашингтон будет продолжать поощрять реального «агрессора» к новым военным преступлениям на Донбассе, где от пуль, снарядов, мин и ракет ВСУ уже погибло 12 тыс. человек и 22 тысячи получили ранения.

Представляется целесообразным учесть не только вышеназванные проблемы, которые созданы в российско-американских отношениях по инициативе Вашингтона, но и такой важный вопрос: какой фон в двух наших странах создается для последующих встреч на высшем уровне?

Если в российском общественно-политическом движении хельсинский контакт лидеров двух ведущих ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и космических держав был воспринят в позитивной тональности, то в американском обществе и его политических кругах он подверглась сильному остракизму и осуждению. Дональду Трампу явно связывают и руки, и ноги. Он поддается, взятый, если пользоваться спортивным термином, «в коробочку».

Американская правящая и оппозиционная элита так накрутила себя в супер негативном восприятии России и ее политики, что США уже не могут просто так, «по щелчку пальцев», изменить то, что они наговорили и понаписали про государство российское за последние четыре года. Если внимательно прочитать только итоговые документы недавно состоявшегося саммита НАТО в Брюсселе, то можно выйти на крайне пессимистический прогноз: со столь враждебными формулировками в адрес Российской Федерации, которые не имеют под собой никаких документально подтвержденных оснований, то о существенном перспективном прогрессе в российско-американских отношениях можно только помечтать.

Остаются в полном объеме незаконно и неоправданно введенные американской стороной жесткие антироссийские торгово-экономические и финансовые санкции. России не возвращают рейдерски захваченную в США российскую дипломатическую собственность, кстати говоря, в нарушение американского законодательства, но и даже не пускают туда российского посла России в Вашингтоне.

Следует обратить внимание и на такой факт: если мы зачастую именуем американцев как «партнеры», то они нас величают как «конкуренты» (это в мягкой упаковке) или как «агрессоры» или «аннексоры» (в жесткой кожуре). К этому факту может быть приложен пессимистический прогноз: Белый дом никогда не назовет Кремль «партнером».

Стало известно, что Дональд Трамп пожелал пригласить Владимира Путина посетить Соединенные Штаты с визитом осенью этого года. Если продолжить метафору из заголовка этого комментария, то свет в конце туннеля сегодня чуть-чуть брезжит, но до сих пор ярко не виден.

Тем не менее, провести эту и последующие встречи по ключевым вопросам международной повестки дня и проблематики двусторонних отношений с нынешним американским «президентом-конкурентом» и важно, и нужно по той простой причине, что на России и США лежит огромнейшая военно-политическая ответственность за глобальную безопасность и стратегическую стабильность. «Сто лет переговоров лучше одного дня войны». Такие слова приписывают Андрею Громыко. «Говорите, говорите, но не воюйте», –  часто напоминал Уинстон Черчиль.

Разумеется, на новых саммитах Белый дом должен очень хорошо знать «из первых уст» российской стороны о тех многоплановых и затяжных сложностях, которые имеются и которые, очевидно, еще будут существовать многие годы в отношениях между Москвой и Вашингтоном.

Без этого и без конструктивного решения обозначенных выше проблем на основе взаимного уважения, равенства и равной безопасности сторон-конкурентов какого-то видимого прогресса в выправлении российско-американских отношений ожидать будет трудно, если невозможно вообще.

Автор: В.П. Козин – ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО, член-корреспондент РАЕН, профессор РАВН

Самолеты НАТО уже открыто имитируют ракетные удары по территории России

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе “Открытый эфир” на канале “Звезда”.

Зачем американские стратегические бомбардировщики B-52 уже почти неделю кружат у наших крымских границ, и почему стыдливо молчит ООН? Большое расследование Владимира Козина.

Эфир от 7 сентября 2020 г.

 

Сирийские ПВО сбили российский Ил-20 – Россия винит Израиль

Сирийские ПВО сбили российский Ил-20, на борту которого находились 14 военнослужащих. Как заявляет Минобороны России, под удар сирийского комплекса С-200 самолет подставили израильские истребители F-16.

 

Сирийские ПВО сбили российский Ил-20, на борту которого находились 14 военнослужащих. Как заявляет Минобороны России, под удар сирийского комплекса С-200 самолет подставили израильские истребители F-16. Армия обороны Израиля, тем временем, считает Сирию «полностью ответственной» за инцидент с Ил-20 и обвиняет в причастности к трагедии Иран и ливанское движение «Хезболла». Разобраться в ситуации в прямом эфире радио Sputnik попробуем вместе с членом президиума Академии геополитических проблем Араиком Степаняном и профессором академии военных наук РФ, ведущим экспертом центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО Владимиром Козиным.

Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/42315

Система ПРО и космическое оружие

18 января член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН В.П. Козин принял участие в международной веб-конференции на тему: «Система ПРО и космическое оружие», организованной НКО ряда зарубежных стран, занимающихся проблематикой контроля над вооружениями.

Привлек внимание 47 участников мероприятия к новой космической политике, одобренной трансатлантическим альянсом. Указал на  использованное в документе положение «космос – это оперативное пространство», которое означает признание космоса сферой использования космических вооруженных сил стран НАТО в будущем. Такое мнение разделили и участники конференции.

Отметив важность решения проблемы устранения космического мусора, предложил подготовить соответствующий неправительственный проект со стороны НКО, который зафиксировал бы ключевой принцип урегулирования указанного вопроса: государства, создающие такой мусор в результате использования космоса, обязаны «убирать его за собой» – независимо от причин его появления (появление обломков уничтоженных национальных спутников или космических аппаратов, прекративших свое существование после длительной эксплуатации).

В ответ на пожелание одного из участников, чтобы Россия и США как можно скорее договорились о недопущении гонки космических вооружений, выразил сожаление, что с начала космической эры (1957 год) и до сих пор Вашингтон негативно реагировал на все советские и российские инициативы на эту тему (в общей сложности на 20 инициатив).

Соединенные Штаты нарушили 108 раз Договор РСМД

Приостановка участия России в ДРСМД, а затем и ее возможный выход из него в ответ на инициативные действия Соединенных Штатов является справедливым, логичным и адекватным зеркальным актом.

С целью информационного прикрытия такого перманентного и долговременного курса на ратифицирование Договора о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний 1996 года США  предъявляют необоснованные претензии к российской стороне, обвиняя ее в «нарушении» пяти договоров:  Договора СНВ-3, ДРСМД, ДОВСЕ, Договора по открытому небу и Венского документа 2011 года о мерах доверия. Во всех случаях, как и применительно к ДРСМД, - без конкретных фактов и доказательств.

Российских же претензий к Вашингтону в области нарушения договорных обязательств в области контроля над вооружениями гораздо больше. Они и конкретны, и обоснованы.

Национально-заокеанские особенности нарушения договора

В общей сложности Вашингтон демонстрирует негативное отношение к 12 договорным актам в названной сфере в виде их нарушений, денонсаций, отказа от ратификации или вообще уклоняется от их обсуждения.

Особое беспокойство среди многих специалистов, хорошо знакомых с развитием американского ракетно-ядерного оружия и усилением агрессивной направленности ракетно-ядерных и иных военных стратегий США, вызывает тот факт, что американская сторона продолжает нарушать три важных договорных акта, касающихся ядерного оружия и его сдерживания. Это Договор СНВ-3, Договор о ликвидации РСМД и Договор о нераспространении ядерного оружия.

Несколько лет назад США осуществляли переоборудование 56 ракетных пусковых установок на ПЛАРБ проекта «Огайо» и 41 тяжелом стратегическом бомбардировщике В-52Н под предлогом их использования для доставки неядерных боеприпасов, исключив по названной причине их из учета по Договору СНВ-3. Это дает американской стороне возможность в кратчайшие сроки нарастить потенциал своих стратегических наступательных ядерных сил, увеличив количество боезарядов более чем на 1.200 единиц. Пентагон использовал шахтные пусковые установки МБР под загрузку в них ракет-перехватчиков системы ПРО. Были также переквалифицированы шахтные пусковые установки МБР, предназначенные для обучения, в категорию «учебных шахт», что позволило нарастить их количество с 450 до 454.

Исключение тяжелого стратегического бомбардировщика В-52Н из учета по Договору СНВ-3 дает американской стороне возможность в кратчайшие сроки нарастить потенциал своих стратегических наступательных ядерных сил.

Исключение тяжелого стратегического бомбардировщика В-52Н из учета по Договору СНВ-3 дает американской стороне возможность в кратчайшие сроки нарастить потенциал своих стратегических наступательных ядерных сил.

Наибольшим нарушениям с американской стороны подвергался Договор о ликвидации РСМД. Российские официальные представители неоднократно говорили о подобных нарушениях, называя при этом три их вида, но не разу не обозначали их общее количество.

В общей сложности с учетом данных, сообщенных в пресс-релизах управления по ПРО Пентагона, отвечающего за разработку, тестирование и развертывание ракет-перехватчиков по всему земному шару, за последние 18 лет, то есть начиная с 2001 года, когда Вашингтон объявил о выходе из Договора по ПРО, Соединенные Штаты 96 раз нарушили ДРСМД. Это происходило и до сих пор происходит при проверке эффективности их глобального противоракетного «щита», когда Пентагон использует в качестве ракет-мишеней ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, запрещенные названным договором.

В данном контексте учитывается последнее испытание, проведенное ВМС США в Тихом океане 11 декабря прошлого года, когда средствами ПРО ими была успешно перехвачена ракета повышенной «средней дальности» с дальностью полета от 3.000 до 5.500 км.

Испытания ВМС США в Тихом океане средств ПРО.

Испытания ВМС США в Тихом океане средств ПРО.

Если же взять за начальную точку отчета 1999 год, то, по данным управления по ПРО министерства обороны США, общее количество таких нарушений составит уже 108 раз. При этом необходимо иметь в виду, что в указанных двух показателях отражено только общее количество испытаний, но без учета перехватываемых ракет, что имеет большее практическое значение.

Если учесть, что в ряде проведенных испытаний предпринимались попытки перехватить групповые ракетные цели, одновременно включающие две и даже пять баллистических и крылатых ракет средней и меньшей дальности, то общее нарушение американской стороной ДРСМД с учетом использованных ракет при таких испытаниях составит за последние 20 лет 117 раз.

Имеется и второй источник такой информации. Это подробный справочный материал исследовательской службы Конгресса США, где на страницах 34-65 из 80 страниц излагаются особенности испытаний американской системы ПРО с привлечением ракет средней и меньшей дальности в качестве ракет-мишеней.

Ответ России адекватен и логичен

Решение Дональда Трампа сначала приостановить выполнение положений ДРСМД со 2 февраля текущего года, а потом и вообще денонсировать его, да еще на фоне такого солидного «багажа» по его нарушениям, вполне оправдывает ответный шаг российской стороны - также приостановить свое участие в нем или выйти из него в случае полного отказа США от его реализации. В этой связи издание соответствующего указа президента России от 4 марта этого года является логичной и адекватной ответной акцией.

Дональд Трамп объявляет о приостановлении выполнения положений ДРСМД со 2 февраля текущего года.

Дональд Трамп объявляет о приостановлении выполнения положений ДРСМД со 2 февраля текущего года.

Сохраняя на европейском континенте свое тактическое ядерное оружие в виде авиабомб, Соединенные Штаты продолжали нарушать первую статью ДНЯО, которая запрещает ядерным государствам размещать ядерное оружие на территории неядерных стран. Вашингтон необоснованно ввел технические и пространственные ограничения на выполнение им Договора по открытому небу: США долгое время не давали сертификат на цифровое оборудование российским самолетам, осуществляющим инспекционные полеты, и блокировали российским инспекционным группам полеты близ Алеутских островов, а еще раньше - над Аляской и Гавайскими островами, где размещены стратегические средства противоракетной обороны США.

Некоторые важные международные договоренности, например, адаптированный Договор об обычных вооруженных силах в Европе и Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний, Соединенные Штаты отказались ратифицировать. Российские эксперты, связанные с западными исследовательским  центрами, считают, что Вашингтон верен принципам ДВЗЯИ, на что якобы его ориентирует новая ядерная стратегия Трампа 2018 года. Но это -  заведомо искаженная точка зрения, поскольку на стр. 63 этой стратегии исключается возможность ратификации этого договора. Более того, там обозначена вероятность возобновления подземных ядерных испытаний на ядерном полигоне в штате Невада.

Нынешняя американская администрация вышла в одностороннем порядке из Венского соглашения по иранской ядерной программе.

Вашингтон не торопится полностью ликвидировать химическое оружие в соответствии с глобальной Конвенцией о его запрещении.

Еще ранее, в 2002 году, американцы в одностороннем порядке вышли из Договора по ПРО и отказались от его возобновления. По словам Дональда Трампа, проблематика ПРО никогда не будет обсуждаться с другими государствами, кроме союзников США.

Американские контрагенты вообще не желают обсуждать проекты двух международных договоров: Договора о европейской безопасности и Договора о предотвращении размещения оружия в космическом пространстве, а также распространять положения Соглашения о предотвращении инцидентов в открытом море 1972 года на подводные лодки, находящиеся в подводном положении.

США развязывают новые виды гонки вооружений

На фоне блокирования договоров в области КНВ нынешнее американское военно-политическое руководство продолжает совершенствовать все три элемента «чикагской триады» - объединения в едином механизме ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных вооружений, который был создан на саммите НАТО в Чикаго в 2012 году.

«Чикагская триада» - объединение в едином механизме ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных вооружений.

«Чикагская триада» - объединение в едином механизме ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных вооружений.

Начиная с 2025 года, в США поступят первые образцы принципиально новой стратегической ядерной триады, которая будет действовать вплоть до 2095 года. Но антироссийски настроенные российские эксперты считают, что США не создают новую стратегическую ядерную триаду, а лишь модернизируют существующую, но это утверждение не соответствует действительности.

Российское военно-политическое руководство признает факт создания новой стратегической ядерной триады американскими контрагентами. В частности, такая оценка содержалась в докладе об основных направлениях развития военной стратегии, с которым выступил 2 марта этого года в Военной академии Генерального штаба Вооруженных сил Российской Федерации на военно-научной конференции первый заместитель министра обороны России - начальник Генерального штаба Вооруженных сил Российской Федерации генерал армии Валерий Герасимов.

Складывается твердое убеждение, что долговременная американская линия, направленная на подрыв системы КНВ, будет продолжена и в последующие годы. Как справедливо отметил 27 февраля 2019 года министр обороны России, генерал армии Сергей Шойгу, подобная линия будет дополняться стремлением США изменить в свою пользу и режим контроля над обычными вооружениями в Европе.

Министр обороны России, генерал армии Сергей Шойгу: у России есть адекватный ответ на неодекватные шаги НАТО.

Министр обороны России, генерал армии Сергей Шойгу: у России есть адекватный ответ на неадекватные шаги НАТО.

Это создает качественно новую военную опасность, которую Россия обязана учитывать в своей политике по укреплению обороноспособности страны, по развитию российских Вооруженных сил, а также в проведении внешнеполитического курса на международной арене в целом.

Такая опасность проявляется в резком нарушении Вашингтоном баланса между наступательными и оборонительными системами вооружений, а также в развязывании им двух новых видов гонки вооружений: противоракетных и ударных космических.

США хотят сохранять за собой право применения ядерного оружия в первом ударе

США до сих пор не взяли на себя твердого обязательства не размещать новые ядерные и неядерные КРНБ и иные ракеты в Европе. Высказанное генеральным секретарем НАТО Йенсом Столтенбергом в феврале текущего года устное обещание не размещать новые американские ракетные системы на европейском континенте не представляет собой твердого политического обещания. Подобная опасность усиливается повышением вероятности применения американской стороной ядерного оружия, в том числе ядерных боезарядов малой мощности: в целом ядерная стратегия Дональда Трампа предусматривает 14 случаев применения ядерного оружия против шести в ядерной стратегии Обамы.

То, что обещает генеральный секретарь НАТО Йенс Столтенберг еще не значит...

То, что обещает генеральный секретарь НАТО Йенс Столтенберг еще не значит...

США по-прежнему сохраняют и сохранят в будущем за собой право применения ядерного оружия в первом ударе, причем такое исключительное право имеет один человек в этой стране - президент. Нынешнее американское военно-политическое руководство подтверждает приверженность стратегии «расширенного ядерного сдерживания», то есть раскрытие «ядерного зонтика» над остальными 28 государствами, входящими в альянс, а также еще над четырьмя внеблоковыми странами. Вашингтон остается верен политике размещения ядерного оружия в качестве средства «передового базирования», а также продолжает выполнять соглашения со своими союзниками по НАТО о проведении «совместных ядерных миссий». Ядерные силы США сохранят повышенную степень боеготовности своих СНВ и ТЯО.

Владимир Путин 4 марта подписал указ о приостановке участия России в ДРСМД.

Владимир Путин 4 марта подписал указ о приостановке участия России в ДРСМД.

Приостановка участия России в ДРСМД, а затем и ее возможный выход из него в ответ на инициативные действия Соединенных Штатов, о чем было заявлено в президентском указе Владимира Путина 4 марта, является справедливым, логичным и адекватным зеркальным актом. Он продиктован 96 нарушениями этого договора по испытаниям и 117 раз - по использованным ракетам-мишеням средней и меньшей дальности американской стороной, а также приостановкой ее участия в нем со 2 февраля этого года и с весьма вероятным односторонним выходом из него в августе этого года.

Государственный департамент США отреагировал на ответные меры России, объявленные 4 марта, весьма своеобразно. Он вновь обставил ведение переговоров с Москвой по контролю над вооружениями разного рода предварительными условиями, которые при любом варианте должны быть обращены к Вашингтону.

Автор: Владимир Козин, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России; Источник: Еженедельник "Звезда"

Сомнительные и неверные утверждения

20 декабря 2021 года вице-президент НИИГлоБ, ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ В.П. Козин принял участие в семинаре «Военные аспекты международной политики США: путь к новой гонке вооружений?», в рамках которого состоялась презентация книги ведущего научного сотрудника ИМЭМО Н.И. Бубновой «Военно-политический курс США во втором десятилетии XXI века». Мероприятие было проведено в Российском совете по международным делам в режиме видеоконференции.

Автор монографии изложила основные выводы своего исследования, которые, к сожалению, не вызвали никаких вопросов или возражений среди заявленных 30 участников встречи, кроме одного человека.

Н.И. Бубнова утверждала, что «российские программы создания вооружений подхлестывали американское военное строительство», одновременно признав, что еще в период существования СССР она готовила в ИСКРАН доклад о том, что и советские военные программы 60-ых годов повлияли на военное строительство в США, из чего она еще тогда также делала вывод, что и советские военные программы «подстегнули» американское военное строительство.

Это не соответствует действительности. Именно Соединенные Штаты первыми создали все три вида стратегических ядерных вооружений, а не СССР или Россия. Именно Пентагон первым разместил свое ТЯО за пределами континентальной части США, а не СССР. Именно в НАТО приняли решение о «двойном решении» – о размещении баллистических и крылатых ядерных ракет в Европе, нацеленных на Советский Союз. Есть много и других примеров.

Выступавшая высказалась за сохранение селективного подхода к решению проблемы контроля над вооружениями (КНВ), навязанный нам Вашингтоном, когда сокращались одни виды, но сохранялись другие виды вооружений; за неизменность неадекватных мер засчета ядерных вооружений, когда каждый любой американский тяжелый стратегический бомбардировщик засчитывается как одна единица, несмотря на то, что он может нести до десятка ядерных ракет и авиабомб. Н.И. Бубнова настаивала на прежнем уровне и способе проведения инспекций по КНВ.

 Ложно утверждала, что космическая стратегия США 2010 года была ориентирована на сотрудничество. Наоборот, в ней были заложен принцип американского военного доминирования в космосе.

Заявлялось, что президент Джозеф Байден, якобы, выступает за урегулирование проблем КНВ, что, якобы, рассматривается нынешней администрацией как «поле для возможного сотрудничества с Россией», с которой, мол, сохраняется «стратегическая стабильность».

Автор монографии свела осложнение отношений между Россией и США только к обострению ситуации на Украине, а не к расширению членского состава НАТО в восточном и южном направлении в сторону российской территории и не к значительному наращиванию альянсом своих вооружений у российского порога. О прямой вине Киева в создании напряженной ситуации в регионе не было сказано ни слова.

По мнению Н.И. Бубновой, Соединенные Штаты не являются «злонамеренным государством» или «империей зла», что в свете новых российских предложений о гарантиях безопасности со стороны Вашингтона и НАТО в целом представляется неверной квалификацией.

Свою презентацию выступавшая завершила признанием, что при подготовке представленного издания она использовала некую «новую русскую методологию» (скорее всего: прозападную), основу которой фактически составляет замалчивание конкретных фактов американской внешней и военной политики, а также маскировка агрессивных направлений действующих ключевых военных стратегий США.

В.П. Козин обратил внимание на то, что уровень стратегической стабильности нельзя сводить только к балансу по носителям и боезарядам СНВ между Россией и США. Здесь надо учитывать и ТЯО, и системы ПРО, и выдвижение СОН НАТО на передовые рубежи, а также другие военные факторы глобального значения. И принимать во внимание стратегию нанесения первого ядерного удара, которую американские ядерные силы сохраняют в неизменном виде с 1945 года. Вашингтон внедрил в военно-политический оборот термин «нестратегическое ядерное оружие» применительно к ТЯО. Но это означает, что этот вид вооружений априори не может выполнять стратегические задачи, хотя на самом деле может, если оно будет установлено на тяжелые бомбардировщики стратегического назначения и, соответственно, должно быть учтено при засчетах ядерных вооружений.

В.П. Козин предложил руководству РСМД провести презентацию его монографий последнего времени на площадке этой НКО.

Состоится ли Договор СНВ-4 в новых условиях?

 

Недавно состоялась необычная для нынешней ситуации международная видео-конференция «Вызовы и перспективы будущего американо-российского контроля над ядерными вооружениями». Её организовала американская «Ассоциация по контролю над вооружениями». В мероприятии приняли участие представители Совета национальной безопасности США, Брукингского института, Федерации американских ученых, Венского центра по разоружению и нераспространению, а также МИД Финляндии. Россию представлял Владимир Козин, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России. В программе «Что происходит?» он рассказывает о конференции и своих впечатлениях.

Программу ведет обозреватель журнала Сергей Филатов.

Источник: журнал «Международная жизнь»

Состязание на скорость

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе «Специальный репортаж» на канале «Звезда».

Почему Соединенные Штаты отстали от нашей страны в области гиперзвука и откуда он появился у России?

Дональд Трамп в ходе предвыборного митинга в Миннесоте заявил, что Россия создала гиперзвуковое оружие, похитив секретные сведения у бывшего хозяина Белого дома Барака Обамы. В тот же день, когда Трамп сделал свое «сенсационное» заявление, президент России развеял эти фантазии, встретившись с создателем гиперзвукового комплекса «Авангард» Гербертом Ефремовым.

Откуда у России гиперзвук? И почему Соединенные Штаты отстали от нашей страны в этой отрасли? Почему американцы внезапно предложили начать работу над новым договором по сокращению наступательных вооружений. С чего вдруг в Белом Доме спохватились, и какие условия Вашингтон ставит Москве? Ответы в программе «Специальный репортаж».

Эфир от 24 сентября.

Источник: телеканал «Звезда» 

Специальная военная операция: ее развитие

 
 

 

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "ОТРажение" на канале ОТР

Силы ПВО России сработали ночью в Рыльском районе Курской области, об этом сообщил глава этого района. По его словам, «силы противовоздушной обороны российской армии не допустили провокации, все воздушные цели были отработаны и уничтожены». Кроме того, местных жителей попросили с пониманием отнестись к ежедневным учебным стрельбам из разного оружия на полигонах Минобороны Рыльского района.

Что это значит? Означает ли это то, что научились сбивать все то, что прилетает на территорию России со стороны Украины?

Ведущий Виталий Млечин.

Эфир от 23 мая 2022г.

Источник: Общественное телевидение России (ОТР)

 

Специальная военная операция: как развиваются события

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "ОТРажение" на канале ОТР.

Эфир от 12 апреля 2022г..


Константин Чуриков (ведущий): Итак, мы снова на планете Земля, где продолжается специальная военная операция России на Украине. И вот сегодня там же, на космодроме Восточный, президент повторил главные цели спецоперации: помочь людям Донбасса и восстановить справедливость.

Владимир Путин, президент Российской Федерации: Цели абсолютно понятные, они благородные. Я с самого начала ведь сказал, обращаю ваше внимание, в первом моем, самом первом публичном заявлении, обращении к стране, к Вооруженным силам, я прямо назвал цели. Цель главная – помощь людям на Донбассе.

Продолжать дальше терпеть этот геноцид, продолжавшийся в течение восьми лет, просто невозможно. Это первое. А второе – Украину начали превращать в плацдарм, к сожалению для нас, в плацдарм антироссийский. Начали выращивать там имевшиеся уже давно ростки национализма и неонацизма. Вы знаете, если вы обратили внимание, я сказал об этом в одном из своих публичных обращений: специально выращивали там эту поросль неонацистскую. И столкновение с этими силами для России было неизбежно. Они только выбирали время для атаки.

А последующие события показали, насколько глубоко это все там проросло. Это очевидный факт. Этот неонацизм, к сожалению, стал фактом жизни достаточно большой и близкой нам страны. Вот это очевидная вещь. Это было неизбежно, вопрос был только во времени.

И то, что мы делаем, помогая людям, спасая их от геноцида, с одной стороны, а с другой стороны, предпринимая меры обеспечения безопасности самой России, – очевидно, что другого выбора у нас не было, это правильный шаг. И то, что цели будут достигнуты, нет никаких сомнений.

Константин Чуриков: Ну а на совместной пресс-конференции с Александром Лукашенко Владимир Путин, говоря о сроках спецоперации, сказал, что часто слышит вопрос: «Можно ли побыстрее?» «Можно, – ответил президент. – Это зависит от интенсивности боевых действий, которая, в свою очередь, связана с потерями, поэтому мы будем действовать ритмично, спокойно, по плану, который изначально был предложен Генеральным штабом», – сказал Владимир Путин.

Ну, сегодня важные заявления прозвучали и в ДНР. Окружение самой большой группировки ВСУ планируется в ближайшее время. По предварительной оценке, численность украинских войск там – около 100 тысяч человек. При этом длина фронта составляет около 200 километров, а глубина – до Центральной Украины.

Эдуард Басурин, официальный представитель Народной милиции ДНР: Это самые боеспособные части, которые есть на данный момент у Украины, поэтому после блокирования данной группировки, если они не сдадутся, полностью ее уничтожения Украина фактически теряет свою армию в том виде, как они ее считают. И вопрос демилитаризации, можно сказать, будет решен на 90%.

Константин Чуриков: Вот так развиваются события. Параллельно с этим приходит еще ряд других – тоже интересных – сообщений.

***

Константин Чуриков: Мы сейчас подключим к нашей беседе Владимира Козина – это член-корреспондент Российской академии военных наук. Владимир Петрович, здравствуйте.

Владимир Козин: Да, приветствую вас, здравствуйте.

Константин Чуриков: Владимир Петрович, пожалуйста, расшифруйте. Мы понимаем всю сложность стоящей перед страной, перед нашими прежде всего военными, перед всеми задачи. Но как действовать ритмично и спокойно? Как при этом все-таки, видимо, интенсифицировать спецоперацию каким-то образом, придавая ей ускорение, и избегать, по максимуму избегать жертв среди мирного населения?

Владимир Козин: Ну конечно, надо действовать спокойно, уверенно, но одновременно энергично. Как говорил герой одного фильма: «Буду бить аккуратно, но сильно». Естественно, не таким образом, чтобы страдало мирное население Украины и чтобы не страдали наши Вооруженные силы, которые выполняют очень сложную работу, очень сложную операцию. Наносить удары по скоплениям Украинских вооруженных сил и национальных батальонов, уничтожать склады ГСМ и боеприпасов, уничтожать любые пути доставки оружия, и неважно, каким способом оно доставляться будет с западной части Европы, то есть со стороны государств-членов НАТО. То есть должны утюжиться, уничтожаться все караваны на земле, на море, допустим, в воздухе. На земле – железнодорожные, автомобильные караваны. Иначе эта война будет продолжаться очень долго.

Константин Чуриков: Естественно, уничтожать на территории Украины, Владимир Петрович, да?

Владимир Козин: Да, да, вы правильно говорите. Только на территории Украины! Потому что если мы перейдем, скажем, украинско-западную границу и будем уничтожать готовящиеся караваны на территории Польши, скажем, Словакии, Румынии, Молдовы – ну, это тогда будет уже война в прямом смысле с Североатлантическим союзом.

Но натовцам надо показать, что мы не потерпим никаких видов смертоносных вооружений, и неважно, как они их называют: оборонительные, оборонительно-наступательные или наступательные. Для нас это все равно уничтожение и мирных жителей, украинцев, граждан Украины, и гибель наших Вооруженных сил. Поэтому надо действовать на опережение и не дожидаться, когда поставляемые из стран-членов НАТО различные виды вооружений где-то будут перебазированы на украинской территории, затем складироваться и только после этого уничтожаться.

Ну, я не хочу сказать, что обязательно должна быть только одна линия, то есть на дальних подступах, как только пересекли границу стран-членов НАТО с Украиной, мы наносим упреждающий огонь.

Константин Чуриков: Пусть даже это всего несколько километров от этой границы, да?

Владимир Козин: Да. Как только пересекли границу – все, мы имеем полное право, потому что оружие это – это оружие уничтожения, это оружие продолжения агрессии. А агрессии мы не хотим, у нас по времени очень ограниченная специальная военная операция.

Константин Чуриков: Владимир Петрович, а как вы думаете, входит ли в наши задачи (я понимаю, что все это военные тайны и мы можем делать только предположения) взять под контроль границу Украины?

Владимир Козин: Конечно. Западную границу надо обязательно взять. И взять северную границу – допустим, Республика Беларусь. Почему? Потому что там могут быть просто провокации или Украина будет отвечать, действовать против Республики Беларусь дальнобойными видами вооружений. Нужно тоже тщательно закрывать российско-украинскую границу – северную, восточную и южную границу. И правильно было сделана предупредительная акция – антитеррористическая операция, меры по антитеррору были объявлены в ряде областей именно Российской Федерации, которые примыкают к Украине. Студия?

Константин Чуриков: И коротко. Можете ли вы подтвердить, что сейчас настал такой самый главный, решающий момент в спецоперации?

Владимир Козин: Настал ли он?

Константин Чуриков: Да.

Владимир Козин: Я думаю, еще не настал. Но он должен настать. Мы должны использовать не только гиперзвуковые и высокоточные системы вооружений «Калибр» и так далее, но мы должны и имеем право использовать стратегическую тяжелую авиацию – но, разумеется, обычные виды вооружений, ни в коем случае не ядерные боезаряды. До этого дело не доходило и не будет доходить, несмотря на разного рода стенания, которые слышны на Западе.

В частности, вчера принимал участие в такой международной видеоконференции с редакцией Бюллетеня ученых-атомщиков. Так вот, там «песни пели» на эту тему очень активно, особенно действовали различные украинские участники, которым была предоставлена возможность участвовать в чате. Они очень сильно переживали по этому поводу. Но Зеленский именно хотел обрести ядерное оружие. Мы не заявляли нигде и никогда, что мы будем применять ядерное оружие в нынешней специальной операции против Украины. Это невозможно.

Константин Чуриков: Да, мы за свои слова отвечаем. Спасибо большое, Владимир Петрович. Будем рады вас, когда вам будет удобно, видеть в нашей студии. Спасибо. Владимир Козин, член-корреспондент Российской академии военных наук.

Источник: Сайт телеканала ОТР

Средства передового базирования США и НАТО около России и третья масштабная агрессия Украины против Донбасса

10 марта член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН В.П. Козин выступил с публичной лекцией в НПО «Алмаз» концерна «Алмаз-Антей» на тему: «Средства передового базирования США и НАТО около России и третья масштабная агрессия Украины против Донбасса», в которой он на конкретных примерах показал тесную военно-техническую кооперацию между США/НАТО и Украиной, активно начавшуюся в двадцатые годы текущего столетия после прихода к власти ультранационалистических и милитаристских неонацистских сил.

По мнению эксперта, Вашингтон и трансатлантический альянс поставили стратегическую задачу долговременного действия: создать на украинской территории плацдарм из комбинированных ударных боевых систем в составе ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных видов вооружений, которые были бы направлены против России и ее национальных интересов. Особое внимание В.П. Козин уделил фактам разработки Украиной и США военных биологических и бактериологических материалов на территории более чем 30 НИИ и санитарно-эпидемиологических лабораторий в крупнейших украинских городах в нарушение Киевом и Вашингтоном международной КБТО, которую они ратифицировали в 1975 году.

Старая новая агрессивная стратегия США

В.П. Козин

член-корреспондент Российской академии естественных наук

профессор Академии военных наук Российской Федерации

ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО МИД России

 

В документе, который заменил прежнюю военно-политическую установку аналогичного свойства, подписанную Бараком Обамой семь лет назад, Соединенные Штаты названы государством, имеющим глобальные амбиции и готовым реагировать на любые угрозы, возникающие как в отношении собственной территории, так и их союзников. В предисловии к новой стратегии общенационального значения президент Дональд Трамп обозначил в качестве главного свой любимый лозунг: «Америка должна быть на первом месте» везде и повсюду.

В большом военно-политическом разделе документа особо выделены две мировые державы, «бросающие вызов американской мощи, влиянию и интересам». Это Китайская Народная Республика и Россия, причем КНР указана на первом месте. В частности, оба государства обвиняются в том, что они разрабатывают передовые образцы вооружений и наращивают военные потенциалы, которые могут угрожать критически важной инфраструктуре, а также системе управления и командования США. Российская Федерация одновременно подвергнута критике за «агрессию» против Грузии и Украины, которую никогда не совершала, а также за то, что видит для себя угрозу в НАТО и Евросоюзе.

Значительное внимание в документе уделено развитию ракетно-ядерного потенциала КНДР, который несет в себе угрозу Соединенным Штатам и их союзникам. Государством, проводящим различные формы деструктивной политики в районе Ближнего Востока, назван Иран. Сирия обвинена в том, что использовала химическое оружие на своей территории, а организация «Исламское государство» – на территории Сирии и Ирака.

Одной из главных целей Соединенных Штатов в области национальной безопасности обозначено «сохранение мира посредством силы», то есть формулировка, применявшаяся в свое время выдвиженцем Республиканской партии президентом Рональдом Рейганом.

Хотя в новой Стратегии национальной безопасности упоминается готовность избегать рисков применения ядерного оружия и в общих чертах обозначена возможность ведения переговоров по новым соглашениям в сфере контроля над вооружениями с другими государствами (заметим здесь сразу: именно Вашингтон либо сорвал достигнутые договоренности в названной области, либо отказался вести дело к ним), перед Министерством обороны страны поставлена задача разрабатывать «новые оперативные концепции и развивать военные потенциалы с целью достижения победы в воздушном, космическом и кибернетическом пространствах, а также на море и суше».

Обращено внимание на важность укрепления и модернизации ракетно-ядерных вооружений, развития потенциала противоракетной обороны и сил общего назначения. В этой связи сделан акцент на размещении американских вооруженных сил «передового базирования» различного назначения практически по всему земному шару. В частности указано на целесообразность укрепления вооруженных сил НАТО в целом и на ее восточном фланге, в частности.

Как носящий «имперский характер» и демонстрирующий «нежелание отказываться от однополярного мира» – именно так Дмитрий Песков прокомментировал этот документ, одобренный 45-ым американским президентом. Пресс-секретарь президента России также отметил, что в Москве не могут согласиться с таким ярлыком, приклеенным к России, как представляющей угрозу для безопасности Соединенных Штатов. Он назвал лишь «скромными позитивными» моментами, в частности, готовность Вашингтона сотрудничать в тех областях, которые отвечают интересам американской стороны.

Таким образом, обновленная Стратегия национальной безопасности США является агрессивной по форме и по содержанию, а также ставит задачу продолжения политики вмешательства Вашингтона во внутренние дела других государств путем применения широкого набора силовых методов и инструментов.

Она вряд ли послужит основой для укрепления стабильности в интересах всех государств и основой для радикального выправления российско-американских отношений, которые целенаправленными действиями нескольких последних военно-политических лидеров США брошены в глубокий каньон.

 

Страны НАТО поддерживают северо-атлантический альянс в поставках вооружения на Украину

 

Европа планирует затягивать российско-украинский конфликт

Верховный представитель ЕС по внешней политике и безопасности Жозеп Боррель сообщил, что предложил выделить миллиард евро из так называемого Европейского фонда мира на экстренные нужды для поставки Киеву боеприпасов, а также предоставить Украине боеприпасы из имеющихся запасов на складах европейских армий.

Ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России Владимир Козин в эфире программы «Мнение» прокомментировал данное заявление.

«Последствия простые, нашу военную операцию они не остановят, наше наступление, пусть поэтапно, пусть не за одну секунду, а с определенным расчетом […]», — заявлет Владимир Козин.

Поставки не изменят противостояния России нацистскому режиму Киева. Однако, Кремль в свою очередь, должен начать полную ликвидацию военной помощи для Украины, считает эксперт.

А в столицах НАТО, должны понять, что агрессором выступает украинская сторона, которая продолжает обстрел мирных граждан. Инструменты пропаганды влияют на западному общество, навязывая русофобские взгляды.

По мнению эксперта, северо-атлантический альянс старается скрыть очевидное, что пытаясь уничтожить Россию с мировой политической арены, уничтожается украинская нация.

В студии программы «Мнение» агентства News Front ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России Владимир Козин и постоянный ведущий программы — Алексей Давыдов.

Источник: News Front

 

Стратегическая аналитика и национальная безопасность России. Анализ развития глобальной военно-политической ситуации до 2099 года

Внешняя проекция стратегической аналитики разнопланова. Остановлюсь только на ее военно-политическом измерении в привязке к российским национальным интересам в сфере безопасности и обороны.

Во время посещения Российского федерального научного центра в Сарове в феврале 2012 года В.В.Путин поставил задачу перспективного планирования в сфере вооружений, назвав верхний предел: на 50 лет вперед. «Мы должны в полной мере представлять характер и перспективы военно-политических процессов, которые разворачиваются в современном мире, чётко понимать, какие потенциальные угрозы могут влиять на ситуацию вокруг нашей страны», – отметил глава нашего государства во время другой встречи – встречи с высшим командным составом силовых министерств и ведомств в Кремле 19 ноября этого года.

Нет сомнений в том, что долговременные оценки развития региональной и глобальной военно-политической ситуации, выявление тенденций развития современных видов вооружений в мире и вероятных пер перспектив переговорного процесса в сфере сокращения избыточных вооружений и ограничения масштабной военной деятельности вдали от национальных территорий должны помогать выработке важнейших государственных решений, содействовать защите российских граждан и оборонных интересов России и ее союзников в целом.

Невозможно спрогнозировать на многие десятилетия вперед конкретные события или появление отдельных личностей в рамках даже небольшого государства как в силу значительного количества самых разноплановых факторов, так и того, что они никогда не будут находиться в статичном положении.

Задача же выявления перспективных тенденций развития военно-политической обстановки в мире облегчается тем, что, скажем, в области производства ракетно-ядерных и противоракетных вооружений ведущих стран Запада во главе с США имеется значительный исторический период их развития (почти 70 лет). Существуют перспективные планы дальнейшего совершенствования таких вооружений примерно до 2075 года, оглашаются долговременные программы их производства и принятие их на вооружение, определяются приблизительные суммы ассигнований на продолжительный период времени. Делаются симптоматические политические заявления на высоком и высшем военно-политическом уровнях, определяющие возможность реального применения военной силы в региональном и глобальном масштабах на долгие годы вперед.

С учетом этого вероятный долгосрочный анализ развития военно-политической ситуации в мире до 2099 года вполне может выглядеть в общих чертах следующим образом.

Военно-политическая ситуация в мире на весь рассматриваемый период будет определяться переменным противостоянием с разной степенью интенсивности между Российской Федерацией и Североатлантическим союзом, который сохранит свою наступательную и доминирующую линию в глобальном масштабе. Это будет происходить по инициативе НАТО. Альянс будет оказывать на российское государство перманентное военное давление, в частности, путем размещения различных сил и средств «передового базирования» у российских границ. НАТО продолжит курс на расширение своего членского состава, в том числе за счет приема сопредельных с Россией государств. Стратегическими целями Соединенных Штатов и НАТО останутся ослабление военной и экономической мощи Российской Федерации, ее дезинтеграция на несколько государственных образований, а также недопущение укрепления СНГ в социально-экономическом и военном плане.

 

Ведущую роль в трансатлантическом союзе по-прежнему будут играть США, которые и в его рамках, и в индивидуальном порядке будут стремиться к тому, чтобы наращивать свою военную мощь на пяти ключевых направлениях: в сфере ракетно-ядерных вооружений в виде СНВ и тактического ядерного оружия (ТЯО), ударно-боевых противоракетных средств, сил общего назначения, а также путем создания ударных космических вооружений и высокоточных гиперзвуковых систем как на стратегических носителях, так и с использованием других способов базирования.

 США и НАТО не откажутся от формулировки Чикагского саммита Североатлантического союза (май 2012 года), который принял официальное решение о «сцепке» ядерных, противоракетных и обычных вооружений в единый силовой механизм, под который разработаны специальные «Правила применения силы» и для оперативного управления которым созданы и уже протестированы соответствующие командно-штабные структуры.ii

 

По меньшей мере, до 2075 года у США останутся СНВ межконтинентальной дальности, произойдет полное обновление традиционной стратегической ядерной триады, то есть всех ее трех компонентов. В ближайшие 25 лет на эти цели будет израсходовано до 500-700 млрд. долларов

 

.

Американские СНВ оставят в своем ядерном арсенале значительный «возвратный потенциал» в качестве активного резерва в виде «оперативно неразвернутых боезарядов СНВ», который относительно «оперативно развернутых боезарядов» будет достигать 25-50% (летом текущего года он составлял 65%).

Вашингтон не откажется от коренного пересмотра своих ядерных установок в рамках доктрины «наступательного ядерного сдерживания путем устрашения», в частности, не пересмотрит ее ключевое положение о возможности применения ядерного оружия стратегического и тактического назначения в первом «превентивном и упреждающем» ударе по группе отдельных государств, относящихся к «потенциальным противникам», в том числе по Российской Федерации.iii

США продолжат боевое патрулирование своими ПЛАРБ и ПЛАРК морских акваторий, примыкающих к территории Российской Федерации, в том числе в непосредственной близости от зон боевой подготовки Северного и Тихоокеанского флотов российского ВМФ. Вашингтон не пойдет на переговоры с Москвой об ограничении патрульной деятельности ПЛАРБ, ПЛА и ПЛАРК вблизи берегов Российской Федерации и США на основе взаимности.

 

 США оставят на европейском континенте свое ТЯО «двойного подчинения» вместе с НАТО, которое будет перманентно подвергаться модернизации и обновлению.iv На эти цели до 2038 года предполагается выделить до 65 млрд. долларов.

Перспективные авиабомбы с ядерной начинкой типа В-61-12 тактического назначения по-прежнему будут доставляться и тяжелыми стратегическими бомбардировщиками В-2 и их новым вариантом, который появится после снятия с вооружения ТБ В-52 Н. Таким образом, обозначенные авиабомбы будут выполнять функцию стратегического ядерного оружия. Под контролем Пентагона на территории четырех европейских государств и азиатской части Турции останутся до 10-13 централизованных баз хранения ТЯО. 

Перспективный носитель этого вида вооружений истребитель-бомбардировщик F-35A останется на вооружении у США до 2070 года.

Последующие американские администрации не пойдут на создание безъядерного мира и оставят в стороне реализацию этой чисто пропагандистской идеи, озвученной президентом Бараком Обамой. Вашингтон будет всячески уклоняться от того, чтобы даже примерно, без политических обязательств, определить сроки выхода на «глобальный ядерный нуль» и этапы ликвидации ядерного оружия, как это было сделано Советским Союзом еще в 1986 году. v

США будут предлагать Российской Федерации различные инициативы в сфере сокращения ракетно-ядерных вооружений на селективной основе, то есть в отрыве от других направлений контроля над вооружениями, которые оказывают существенное воздействие на глобальную стратегическую стабильность.

Следует с большой осторожностью воспринимать такие предложения, если они обходят стороной решение проблемы ПРО, ТЯО и обычных вооруженных сил в Европе, игнорируют вопрос о предотвращении размещения оружия в космическом пространстве. Нельзя также допускать, чтобы компромиссы, достигаемые на переговорах по сокращению вооружений, приносили бы большую пользу Соединенным Штатам и НАТО, чем Российской Федерации.

 Пентагон уделит особое внимание дальнейшему развитию и усовершенствованию ударно-боевых противоракетных систем, которые в основном (до 95%) «уйдут в Мировой океан», то есть будут размещены на борту крейсеров и эсминцев с УРО, специально сконструированных под размещение ракет-перехватчиков ПРО большой дальности с целью заблаговременного перехвата баллистических и крылатых ракет других государств.

Если к 2041 году в американских ВМС будет насчитываться 84 корабля с БИУС «Иджис» (или 27% от всего их корабельного состава к тому периоду времени), то к 2099 году этот показатель может быть увеличен до 50-60%.vi К этому списку добавятся еще три эсминца нового поколения проекта «Элмо Зумволт», а наращиваемый потенциал ракет-перехватчиков ПРО «Стэндард-3» будет усилен новыми противоракетами аналогичного предназначения в виде средств ПВО/ПРО морского базирования «Стэндард-6» с последующими модификациями. Будут приняты на вооружение ракеты-перехватчики с РГЧ ИН. Вслед за ЕПАП-1 появится ЕПАП-2 (2022-2030 гг.), а затем и ЕПАП-3 (начиная с 2030 года).

США продолжат работы по повышению точности поражения, дальности полета и скорости движения таких ракет-перехватчиков, общее количество которых только с учетом наиболее совершенных моделей в виде противоракет «Стэндард-3» и других перспективных образцов (ракет-перехватчиков ПРО ТВД «THAAD») в 2020 году превысит количество развернутых носителей СНВ, установленных Пражским Договором СНВ-3 в российско-американском ракетно-ядерном балансе, а по боезарядам – к 2040 году или даже ранее. Это приведет к подрыву и дальнейшему ухудшению глобальной стратегической ситуации вследствие нарушения баланса между стратегическими наступательными и стратегическими оборонительными вооружениями (системами ПРО).

 

Последующие американские администрации независимо от их партийной принадлежности будут упорно отказываться от подписания многостороннего Договора по ПРО, который вводил бы согласованные количественные, качественные (например, скоростные), а также пространственные ограничения на размещение ударно-боевых систем ПРО за пределами континентальной территории ведущих ракетно-ядерных и противоракетных государств мира.

Уклоняясь от переговоров по предотвращению размещения в космическом пространстве оружия любого вида в частности, противоспутникового, и сохраняя неизменной доктрину военного доминирования в этой среде, которая с точки зрения международного права является практически незащищенной от враждебной деятельности в ней (кроме размещения ОМП), Вашингтон, вероятно, создаст ударные космические вооружения класса «космос-космос» и «космос-поверхность».vii Испытание военного мини-шаттла «Х-37В» многократного использования с возможностью продолжительного нахождения на орбите – предвестник именно такого развития событий.

 

Следует ожидать, что уже в ближайшее время США совершат прорыв в создании гиперзвукового оружия, а в последующем будут наращивать его производство с целью обеспечения своего абсолютного преимущества. Можно также с уверенностью прогнозировать появление на вооружении американской армии оружия, которое будет основано на иных физических принципах и которое ещё больше укрепит преимущество Соединенных Штатов США в военной области. В случае достижения успеха в создании и испытаниях подобных образцов вооружений Вашингтон вполне может ослабить опору на ракетно-ядерные силы. Но до какой степени это будут сделано, в настоящее время предугадать в виде каких-то точных процентов не представляется возможным. Очевидно, все будет зависеть от степени эффективности замещения ракетно-ядерных сил высокоточным и высокоскоростным оружием, создаваемом на новых физических принципах, а также в обычном снаряжении.

Значительное внимание Пентагон и ведущие государства-члены НАТО будут уделять развитию кибероружия и дальнейшей компьютеризации боевых действий, производству автоматических и роботизированных систем ведения огня.

Перспективным направлением оснащения их вооруженных сил станет создание беспилотных летательных аппаратов большой грузоподъемности с размещением на них наступательных ударных и противоракетных вооружений различной огневой мощи. Будет сделан упор на «гипердистанционные войны» с помощью БПЛА.

 

Не произойдет коренного изменения в американской базовой стратегии: вооруженные силы общего назначения США будут оставаться в Западной и Восточной Европе, в АТР, на Ближнем и Среднем Востоке весь рассматриваемый период. По мере таяния льдов в Арктике усилится проникновение американских ВМС с ракетно-ядерным, противоракетным и высокоточным оружием в обычном снаряжении в этот стратегически важный регион. В этом регионе нет других государств, против которых могли бы быть направлены эти боевые средства, кроме Российской Федерации.

Выступая на расширенном заседании коллегии Министерства обороны 10 декабря 2013 года, Президент и Верховный главнокомандующий ВС Российской Федерации В.В.Путин сказал: «… большинство ведущих стран активно модернизируют свои военные арсеналы, вкладывают огромные средства в разработки перспективных систем вооружений, построенных в том числе на технологиях нового поколения, на новых принципах. Не прекращаются попытки нарушить, размыть стратегический баланс, прежде всего они связаны, конечно, с планами строительства противоракетной обороны США, в том числе и в европейском сегменте. Мы обязаны учитывать все эти потенциальные вызовы и угрозы безопасности нашей страны и соответственно строить нашу работу по дальнейшему укреплению Вооружённых Сил».

 

В складывающихся условиях Российская Федерация должна постоянно работать над совершенствованием собственных видов вооружений, разрабатывать их новые, наиболее эффективные и перспективные образцы, производить их исключительно на своей территории, уделяя при этом повышенное внимание развитию собственных СНВ (всех элементов стратегической ядерной «триады») и ТЯО, сил и средств ПРО и ВКО, а также высокоточных и высокоскоростных видов вооружений повышенной дальности. В интересах более эффективного обеспечения обороноспособности нашего государства и контролирования региональных конфликтных ситуаций российскому ВМФ необходимо иметь до трех-четырех полноценных авианосцев и до четырех крупных десантных кораблей-вертолетоносцев с большим водоизмещением.

Следует наращивать интеллектуально-производственные усилия, направленные на развитие наземной, воздушной и морской, а также космической составляющей национальной системы ПРО – в последнем случае при сохранении Соединенных Штатами линии на единоличное доминирование в космическом пространстве. С целью противовеса американкой инфраструктуры ПРО необходимо сформировать несколько корабельных группировок ВМФ России океанской зоны действия с пусковыми шахтами вертикального запуска ракет-перехватчиков (до нескольких десятков на корабль).

Хотел бы обратить внимание на необходимость привлечения к стратегической аналитике высокопрофессиональных специалистов-практиков, отлично знающих основные рабочие языки системы ООН, перспективные планы США и НАТО в сфере производства вооружений и их доктринальные установки на их применение в оригинальном исполнении, не используя при этом вторичный материал, который зачастую появляется в российской и зарубежной военно-политической литературе в результате недопонимания мотивов и интересов других государств или проведения ими целенаправленных дезинформационных мероприятий.

Особая ответственность в представлении аналитических материалов стратегического назначения лежит на государственных и академических учреждениях, занимающихся вопросами национальной безопасности и стратегической стабильности. На руководителях таких академических институтов ложится большая ответственность за публикации и за публичные выступления сотрудников, которые замалчивают характер военной угрозы, исходящей от ведущих стран-членов НАТО или предлагают «рецепты» решения военно-политических проблем с ними за счет ослабления национальной обороны нашей страны. Все такие неадекватные «исследования» должны учитываться самым тщательным образом; им также необходимо давать самую принципиальную оценку сразу же после их появления.

Практические предложения

С целью качественного и своевременного улучшения проведения стратегического анализа и прогнозирования на длительную перспективу (50-100 лет) можно было бы создать принципиально новый постоянно действующий трехзвенный механизм.

Первое. Все силовые министерства и ведомства Российской Федерации должны иметь подразделения долговременной стратегической аналитики в рамках существующего кадрового состава, которые должны периодически информировать руководство страны о среднесрочных и долгосрочных прогнозах развития мировой и региональной, а также в области своего профессионального интереса ситуации в соответствии с профилем своей функциональной деятельности.

Второе. Следующим звеном могла бы стать компактная (до 10-15 человек) Межведомственная рабочая группа стратегической аналитики и прогнозов в военно-политической области под эгидой Министерства обороны Российской Федерации, вводимая в действие президентским указом. Ее миссия состояла бы в подготовке специальных межведомственных аналитических и прогностических материалов стратегического назначения.

Третье. Высшим звеном, как представляется, явился бы Центр стратегической аналитики и прогнозов в сфере национальной безопасности при Администрации Президента Российской Федерации или в рамках Совета Безопасности Российской Федерации. Этот центр мог бы включать до 10 высокопрофессиональных аналитиков, которые подчинялись бы советнику Президента по вопросам стратегической аналитики и прогнозирования (в первом случае) или Секретарю названного Совета.

Все обозначенные три структуры могли бы быть сформированы без привлечения дополнительных бюджетных ассигнований, то есть в рамках существующего штатного расписания.

Представляется, что упомянутые в этом списке две последние структуры (Межведомственная рабочая группа и Центр стратегической аналитики и прогнозов) могли бы готовить два раза в год перспективные стратегические аналитические доклады для руководства заинтересованных министерств и ведомств, а также для военно-политического руководства страны, а по мере необходимости – специализированные доклады по отдельным направлениям – в зависимости от развития военно-политической обстановки в мире в чрезвычайные периоды. Все эти доклады должны носить прикладной характер, быть лаконичными и конкретными, не содержать теоретических выкладок.

О некоторых результатах своих исследований названные структуры вполне могли бы информировать и гражданское общество нашей страны через СМИ, которое пока неадекватно осведомлено о господствующих тенденциях в военно-политической обстановки в мире.

Реализация этих предложений позволила бы наиболее оптимально определять приоритеты военного строительства и использования Вооруженных Сил Российской Федерации, формулировать долговременные задачи по укреплению ее обороноспособности, своевременно разрабатывать перспективные виды вооружений, наиболее рационально выстраивать взаимоотношения с другими государствами, обладающими крупным военным потенциалом, а также вести с ними рациональный переговорный процесс в сфере контроля над вооружениями на основе принципов равенства и равной безопасности.

Автор: Козин Владимир Петрович – главный советник-руководитель Группы советников директора Российского института стратегических исследований, член-корреспондент РАЕН

 

i Основные положения доклада опубликованы в материале: Козин В. «Военные вызовы нарастают»// Красная звезда. 2013. 10 декабря (http://www.redstar.ru/index.php/component/k2/item/13170-voennye-vyzovy-narastayut).

ii Козин В. «Чикагская триада» и ее последствия для России. На ее фоне трудно говорить о «стратегическом партнерстве» между Москвой и Брюсселем//Независимое военное обозрение. 2012 № 26, 3-9 августа.

iii Об «актуализированной» в июне 2013 года ядерной доктрине США см. подробно: Козин В. «Новая» ядерная стратегия США и ее последствия для России»// Международная жизнь. № 7. 2013. Сентябрь. С.60-85. Анализ модификации ядерной доктрины США в 2010 году изложен в: Козин В. Новая ядерная доктрина США. Анахронизм сохраняется// Национальная оборона. 2010. № 4, апрель. С.30-36.

iv Козин В. Деликатность Запада в вопросах сокращения вооружений. Американское тактическое ядерное оружие в Европе и ЕвроПРО не делают Москву другом Вашингтона// Независимое военное обозрение. 2013. № 7. 1-7 марта. Козин В. Пять препятствий на пути сокращения ТЯО. Россия не должна допустить размыва своей позиции//Независимое военное обозрение. 2011. № 19, 7 мая-2 июня.

v Козин В. Безъядерный мир к 2045 году. Реально ли это?//Вестник аналитики (Институт стратегических оценок и анализа). 2010. № 4 (42). С. 57-63.

vi Козин В. Монография «Эволюция противоракетной обороны США и позиция России»//Москва: Российский институт стратегических исследований. 2013 год. 384 стр. (с иллюстрациями); Козин В. ПРО США: «реструктуризация», но не в интересах России. При перезагрузке в Вашингтоне перепутали красные кнопки//Независимое военное обозрение. 2013. № 12. 5 апреля.

vii Козин В. Проблема предотвращения размещения оружия в космосе: сравнительный анализ позиций США и России//Проблемы национальной стратегии.2012. №2. С.77-97. Козин В. X-37B: старт Вашингтона к размещению оружия в космосе. Администрация США взяла решительный курс на оснащение космоса оружием//Национальная оборона. 2010. № 5, май.

 

Стратегическая стабильность – под угрозой

США продолжают подрывать систему контроля над вооружениями.

Вброс идеи о всеобщем ядерном разоружении, как ни странно на первый взгляд, сопровождается в США продолжающейся разработкой долгосрочных программ модернизации ядерных вооружений и созданием стратегического неядерного высокоточного оружия, призванного девальвировать возможности стратегического сдерживания со стороны России.

То, что с огромным трудом складывалось десятилетиями, сегодня находится под серьёзной угрозой. Речь идёт о мировой системе контроля над вооружениями, под которую сегодня активно «копает» республиканская администрация США. Именно на это направлена её готовность выйти из Договора о ракетах средней и меньшей дальности. Этой же цели служат американские предложения по «совершенствованию работы» Организации по запрещению химического оружия. А недавно проявились намерения США расшатать механизм контроля над ядерными вооружениями.

Так, старший научный сотрудник Федерации американских учёных и бывший инспектор Международного агентства по атомной энергии (МАГАТЭ) Томас Шеа анонсировал в Венском центре по разоружению и нераспространению свою монографию «Проверяя ядерное разоружение». Её ключевой идеей является разработка нового международного контрольного механизма о поэтапном и полном уничтожении ядерного оружия всеми его обладателями.

В представленном Шеа исследовании 78-летний автор, начавший свою военную карьеру на одном из авианосцев ВМС США в качестве установщика ядерных авиабомб на самолёты палубной авиации, отталкивается от текста договора о запрещении ядерного оружия, который был разработан в 2017 году, но пока не вступил в силу. При этом он игнорирует тот факт, что против принятия этого соглашания в 2017 году выступили все ядерные государства.


Наша справка. В 2015 году Генеральная ассамблея ООН учредила рабочую группу для выработки законодательных норм с целью достижения и поддержания мира, свободного от ядерного оружия. Так появился текст договора о запрещении ядерного оружия (Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons) – международное соглашение, которое запрещает разработку, испытание, хранение, приобретение, транспортировку и использование ядерного оружия. Оно открыто для подписания 20 сентября 2017 года. В работе конференции ООН по согласованию положений договора не принимали участия многие государства, включая все страны «ядерного клуба».


Шеа предложил дополнительно к МАГАТЭ, одной из задач которого является, как известно, обеспечение нераспространения ядерного оружия, создать специальный орган по контролю за ядерным разоружением в виде «Международного агентства по ядерному разоружению» (МАЯР).

По мнению американского эксперта, МАЯР должно стать ключевым органом по контролированию всего процесса глобального ядерного разоружения, проводить мониторинг демонтажа ядерных боезарядов и оборудования по их созданию на заводах-производителях ядерного оружия, а также обеспечить необратимость создания ядерных арсеналов вновь…

Какие выводы напрашиваются из этих предложений американского эксперта? Если исходить, что они выдвинуты им из его добрых побуждений взять под контроль процесс глобального ядерного разоружения, а хотелось бы верить, что это именно так, то совершенно очевидно, что в данном случае речь идёт о попытке поставить телегу впереди лошади.

Будем откровенны. Запрещение ядерного оружия на нынешнем этапе международных отношений абсолютно нереально. Его не поддерживают ни пять официальных ядерных держав – США, Россия, Великобритания, Франция и Китай, ни остальные – Израиль, Индия и Пакистан – неофициальные обладатели ядерного оружия.

Да и вообще, полная ликвидация ядерного оружия возможна, как неоднократно подчёркивали официальные представители Российской Федерации, только в контексте всеобщего и полного разоружения, в условиях обеспечения равной и неделимой безопасности для всех, в том числе и для обладателей ядерного оружия, как это предусматривает Договор о нераспространении ядерного оружия.

В этой связи нельзя не заметить, что Соединённые Штаты, чьим гражданином является Томас Шеа, уже приняли планы о начале создания через 7–8 лет принципиально новой стратегической ядерной триады. Она, по замыслам нынешнего американского военно-политического руководства, должна просуществовать вплоть до 2080-х годов.

Возможно, принимая во внимание эти планы Вашингтона, американский эксперт в своей книге не назвал никаких сроков выхода на глобальный «ядерный нуль», признав, что процесс полного ядерного разоружения может занять многие годы из-за разногласий по этому вопросу, которые существуют между государствами, обладающими ядерным оружием.

Вместе с тем нельзя не заметить, что своими предложениями о создании некого МАЯР в дополнение к МАГАТЭ он тем самым бросает тень на это авторитетное агентство, выставляя его как неспособное решать поставленные перед ним задачи.

Кстати, именно в таком ключе к МАГАТЭ относится Вашингтон, и яркий пример тому – иранская ядерная программа. Всякий раз, когда представители МАГАТЭ заявляли, что проверки, проводимые его инспекторами, свидетельствуют о точном выполнении Тегераном положений о «ядерной сделке», американская сторона выражала сомнение в достоверности этих докладов. А затем Соединённые Штаты и вовсе вышли из соглашения с Ираном, нанеся, таким образом, ощутимый удар как по МАГАТЭ, так и по международному режиму нераспространения ядерного оружия.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: “Красная звезда”

Строить взаимную безопасность можно только сообща

 

Предложения по снижению напряжённости в Европе не могут быть оторваны от фактического развития процесса контроля над вооружениями.
 
Вопрос о будущем советско-американского Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД) продолжает оставаться в центре внимания экспертного сообщества. Для аналитиков очевидно, что решение американской стороны о выходе из договора было бы чревато негативными последствиями для безопасности стран Евросоюза. 1980-е годы показали, что размещение американских ядерных ракет вызвало волну массовых антивоенных выступлений западноевропейской общественности.
 
Очевидно, что и сегодня в Евросоюзе так же восприняли бы подобный шаг своего заокеанского партнёра. Реалистически мыслящие политические круги Европы – а в Старом Свете их голос по-прежнему влиятелен – отдают себе отчёт в том, что перед европейским сообществом стоят более важные и злободневные проблемы. И свидетельство тому статья министра иностранных дел Германии Хайко Мааса, опубликованная недавно в журнале «Шпигель».
Глава германского внешнеполитического ведомства решительно высказался за сохранение вашингтонского соглашения от 8 декабря 1987 года, считая его одним из самых больших достижений мирового сообщества в области разоружения. При этом он предложил пересмотреть режим контроля над вооружениями ради сохранения мира и укрепления безопасности в Европе.
 
По словам германского министра, такая необходимость вытекает из появления новых технологий в создании оружия и стирания граней между ядерными и обычными видами вооружений. В этой связи он изложил своего рода план по укреплению международной безопасности, состоящий из четырёх пунктов. Им предложено:
 
• вернуться к практике обмена данными между США, Европой и Россией по вооружениям и механизму контроля над вооружениями;
• установить всеобъемлющий режим транспарентности для баллистических и крылатых ракет;
• включить в эту систему КНР с целью добиться большей прозрачности в вопросах контроля над вооружениями;
• рассмотреть вопросы введения ограничений на высокоскоростные ударные системы вооружений и боевых роботов.
 
Инициатива германского министра иностранных дел не могла не вызвать желания детально рассмотреть её положения. Например, что касается первого пункта предложений Мааса, то здесь надо напомнить о 15 нерешённых проблемах в сфере контроля над вооружениями, которые «зависли» как раз по вине США и других государств, входящих в Североатлантический союз. В списке таких проблем значатся и сохраняющиеся американские тактические ядерные вооружения в Европе, и развёртывание Пентагоном наземных и морских компонентов глобальной инфраструктуры противоракетного щита на европейской территории и в морских пространствах вокруг неё. Также сюда следует отнести наращивание НАТО значительных сил общего назначения и потенциала объединённых оперативных группировок быстрого развёртывания, проведение крупных военных учений наступательного характера.
В этой связи возникает вопрос: если германский министр проявляет заботу об укреплении безопасности в Европе, то почему в его предложениях нет ни слова о проекте договора о европейской безопасности, текст которого уже много лет лежит на столах руководителей стран НАТО, в том числе и в ФРГ, без рассмотрения? Если он не устраивает, то, очевидно, надо предложить нечто лучшее. Но этого ни со стороны Берлина, ни со стороны столиц других европейских государств пока нет.
 
Второй пункт плана Мааса о введении контроля за баллистическими и крылатыми ракетами не может быть выполнен без специально разработанного международного договорного механизма, поскольку такие системы вооружений потенциально могут производить в общей сложности 32 государства мира. А удастся ли уговорить их всех, значительная часть которых входит в Североатлантический военный блок, пойти на такой шаг? Министр не даёт на это ответа.
Что касается возможного расширения контроля над выполнением ДРСМД, то проведённые в связи с ним многосторонние взаимные инспекции завершились ещё в 2001 году. Да и о каких новых инспекциях в «привязке к ДРСМД или вне его» может идти речь, если по состоянию на 26 октября этого года Соединённые Штаты нарушили договор уже 95 раз и намерены нарушать его впредь? Как быть с крылатыми ракетами морского и воздушного базирования, способными нести ядерные боезаряды? Они из-за позиции США вообще не охвачены существующими военно-политическими ограничительными режимами? В предложениях Мааса по этому поводу нет никаких разъяснений.
Упоминание германским министром иностранных дел в третьем пункте его материала только КНР представляется односторонне выборочным. Пекин никогда не являлся участником договорённостей об ограничении или сокращении ядерных вооружений. С таким же успехом можно поставить вопрос о необходимости обеспечения прозрачности существующих ракетно-ядерных систем Великобритании, Франции и Израиля, которые располагают ядерными средствами, в том числе первые два государства – стратегическим ядерным оружием.
В этот же «контрольный список» следовало бы занести и ФРГ, на территории которой уже многие десятилетия размещаются американские ядерные авиабомбы, способные выполнять как тактические, так и стратегические задачи, а также ещё четыре государства НАТО, давшие согласие на их хранение на своей территории (Бельгия, Италия, Нидерланды и Турция).
Четвёртый пункт предложений руководителя германского внешнеполитического ведомства о гиперзвуковых системах вооружений, вероятно, может быть рассмотрен только при наличии общемирового консенсуса, степени взаимного доверия и уважения между государствами, а также после отказа ведущих трёх ядерных держав НАТО от наступательных ядерных стратегий.
Таким образом, выдвинутые главой германской дипломатии четыре идеи могут представлять интерес лишь в определённом контексте и при условии, что они проникнуты искренним и реальным желанием укрепить безопасность в Европе – и не с помощью наращивания избыточных вооружений и масштабной военной деятельности в зоне «передового базирования».
Подобные инициативы могут привлечь к себе внимание, если они не приведут к ломке договорно-правовой базы в области сокращения избыточных вооружений, а будут реализовываться на принципе «строить надёжную взаимную безопасность друг с другом», а не против друг друга.
 
Пока же следует признать, что отдельные положения инициативы Мааса представляют собой лишь благие пожелания, оторванные от фактического развития процесса контроля над вооружениями, который в настоящее время сведён к нулю именно действиями Вашингтона и его ближайших союзников по НАТО.
 
 
Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/42776

Так «акторы» или «экторы»? Ни то и ни другое. А что же?

В многочисленных публичных выступлениях представителей российских академических кругов, а также в их публикациях по политическим вопросам и проблематике международных отношений все чаще мелькает магически-завораживающее и для многих непонятное слово «акторы».

Вполне очевидно, что сторонники этого слова, желая блеснуть своим углубленным знанием английского языка, имеют в виду английское слово «actors», которое в современных англо-русских словарях имеет основное значение – «актеры». Но тогда почему «акторы», а не «экторы», если слово «actors» в английском языке имеет только один-единственный вид произношения: «экторс». Но дело, разумеется, не в произвольном произношении английского слова «actors» на немецкий лад.

Суть использования слова «акторы» многими представителями российской науки в выступлениях и публикациях по политическим и международным вопросам заключается в том, что они не осведомлены, что английское слово «actors» давно имеет еще два фиксированных значения. Такие значения проявляются в двух словосочетаниях «international actors»  и  «non-state actors», что подтверждается внешнеполитическими документами России и других государств мира, а также в системе многочисленных международных организаций, в том числе и ООН. В МИД России никогда не скажут и не напишут слово «акторы» вместо «международные игроки» или «негосударственные субъекты».

Итак, в первом случае словосочетание «international actors» означает «международные игроки», то есть государственные образования, действующие на международной арене.

Во втором случае словосочетание «non-state actors» означает «негосударственные субъекты», под которыми понимаются террористические формирования.

Поэтому, если в выступлениях и публикациях англоязычных представителей употребляется слово «actors», то необходимо аккуратно учитывать контекст применения этого слова. Если не уточнять в переводе на русский язык значение этого слова, то возникнет недопонимание: что говорящий или написавший имел в виду, если он употребил слово «акторы» в русском языке.

Например, в одном из своих первых публичных выступлений президент США Джозеф Байден употребил слово «actors» именно в двух обозначенных смыслах. Несмотря на это многие российские специалисты и в первом, и во втором случае, особо не задумываясь или просто по незнанию перевели на русский язык соответствующие разделы его публичного обращения со словами «actors» просто туманными словами «акторы».

Но разве не ясно, что «международные игроки» и «негосударственные субъекты» имеют разные политические и международно-правовые значения?

И каков же смысловой результат использования слова «акторы» в данном случае? Нулевой. Поскольку эта транслитерация в переводе на русский язык скрыла два разных смысла заявления американского президента. И, соответственно, будущие действия его администрации.

 Так не лучше ли давать правильный перевод, чем везде и всюду использовать слово «actors» в единственном варианте как некие неуточненные «акторы»?

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ ИМИ В.П. Козин

 

Тезисы выступления В.П. Козина на открытии международного «Клуба народного единства»

 

Выступивший на открытии форума 27 марта член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России Владимир Козин вначале привлек внимание к используемым в России при освещении событий на Украине некоторым терминологическим определениям, которые, по его мнению, являются неадекватными или неполными.

Он отметил, что в России до сих пор не используется более точная квалификация враждебных действий Украины и НАТО против российского государства. Применяемые в нашей стране такие термины как «конфликт», «кризис», «противостояние», «война», «гражданская война» и другие без обозначения того государства, которое инициировало подобные акции, ставят агрессора (Украину) и государство, противодействующее такой агрессии (Россию) на одну доску. Наиболее точным является краткий термин «агрессия Украины против России» и более полный вариант: «комбинированная агрессия Украины и НАТО против России». Надо напоминать, что сначала такая агрессия была развязана Украиной с 14 апреля 2014 года против Донбасса (указ врио президента Украины А. Турчинова № 405/2014), а с сентября 2023 года – против России.

Как известно, что Украина сразу же ввела в национальный и международный политический оборот термин «агрессия России против Украины» и «вторжение России на Украину». Неправильная дефиниция военных действий Украины в 2014-2025 гг. привела к тому, что в международном сообществе возникло убеждение в том, что «агрессию» и «вторжение на Украину» начала именно Россия, что не соответствует действительности. К сожалению, такой извращенный метод используется многими государствами очень широко. Наша критика такого подхода остается слабой. Нужно ликвидировать этот пропагандистский ярлык.

Владимир Козин считает, что многие российские государственные и политические деятели, а также представители академических и журналистских кругов делают очень серьезную ошибку, предпочитая не называть реальных агрессоров своими именами. По сути дела, до сих пор игнорируются многочисленные публичные заявления Президента России В.В. Путина, где он использовал применительно к действиям Украины против России термины «агрессия» и «геноцид» Украины и НАТО.

В этой связи выступавший обозначил задачу повсеместно и постоянно использовать более точную квалификацию военных действий Украины и НАТО против России, которую он обозначил, – как внутри нашей страны, так и заграницей.

Член-корреспондент предложил постоянно вырабатывать «комплекс вины» у таких агрессоров, периодически публикуя общие данные о многочисленных жертвах среди мирных граждан России, страдающих и гибнущих от оружия США и НАТО, по-прежнему поставляемого в арсеналы ВСУ. Важно также периодически информировать мировое сообщество об общем количестве ударов украинских агрессоров по четырем российским АЭС (Воронежской, Запорожской, Смоленской и Курской).

Выступавший предложил возобновить удары России по энергетической инфраструктуре Украины по той причине, что ВСУ интенсифицировали свои удары по российским энергетическим объектам (состоянию на 27 марта они нанесли удары по девяти таким объектам России; за 13 дней, т.е. с 18 по 31 марта количество таких ударов достигло 18).  Россия же пока соблюдает этот мораторий.

По мнению В.П. Козина, внедренный в оборот фраза «нынешний просроченный президент Украины» (В.Зеленский) с правовой и политической точек зрения является неправильной. В ней все равно звучит слово «президент». Самой правильной была бы квалификация как «нелегитимный бывший президент Украины», с возможным уточнением исходной даты, если это требуется – с 20 мая 2024 года. Два определения «нелегитимный и бывший» гораздо точнее определяют ситуацию с отсутствием президентских прав у этого рядового украинского гражданина.

Позитивно оценив согласованный в Эр-Рияде 24 марта с.г. российско-американский документ по украинской проблематике, Владимир Козин отметил отсутствие в нем положения о запрете нанесения ударов Украиной по объектам размещения ядерных СНВ РФ на российской территории и о прекращении снабжения ВСУ ударными вооружениями и разведывательными данными со стороны США. Соединенные Штаты не могут быть реальными посредниками в достижении мира между Россией и Украиной до тех пор, пока они продолжают накачивать украинскую хунту оружием и снабжать ее секретной информацией.

Эксперт предположил, что в разделе документа, где говорится о необходимости «исключить применение силы» в зоне Черного моря, может скрываться стремление Вашингтона постепенно запретить использование ВМФ в интересах проведения СВО против Украины, что принесло бы ущерб безопасности России и затормозило бы выполнение двух ключевых задач этой операции.

О такой возможности говорят несколько заявлений госсекретаря и советника президента по национальной безопасности США о включении в российско-американские документы положения о «прекращении огня в акватории Черного моря». Такие заявления на высоком уровне были сделаны американской стороной до проведения двусторонней встречи с российской делегацией в Эр-Рияде и после нее. Существует опасность, что если Россия согласится с такой постановкой вопроса, то Белый дом будет требовать в дальнейшем и полного запрещения использования воздушного пространства Украины российскими ВКС.

В заключение выступавший предложил добавить пункт об основных направлениях деятельности Клуба, где говорится о важности противодействия фальсификации истории, фразой и о фальсификации «современности». Под этим он понимает адекватное реагирование на существенные политические выпады в адрес России, которые практикуются странами ЕС, НАТО и Украины в любой текущий период времени.

 

Теракт в Кабуле

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО в программе “Открытый эфир” на телеканале “Звезда”.

В.П. Козин: «Чтобы избежать столпотворения в Кабульском международном аэропорту с 14 августа надо было разделить желающих улететь из Афганистана на группы: собрать всех, кто имеет иностранные паспорта, визы и другие документы об их работе в иностранных дипмиссиях, стремящихся вылететь до 31 августа, а после этой даты – вообще всех афганцев, желающих покинуть страну, но также при условии наличия у них выездных и иных документов».

Эфир от 27 августа 2021г.

Терроризм и нелегальная миграция: вызовы и угрозы международной безопасности

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ В. П. Козин 11-12 сентября выступил в Университете г. Никосия на международном семинаре с докладом на тему: "Терроризм и нелегальная миграция: вызовы и угрозы международной безопасности", в котором изложил существующие и перспективные проблемы противодействия терроризму, обратил внимание на различные виды миграции, в частности, вызванной вооруженным вмешательством ряда государств во внутренние дела других стран. Докладчик  сделал акцент на недопустимости поставок оружия и боеприпасов террористическим группировкам, оказания им морально-политической поддержки и сохранения военного присутствия ведущих стран НАТО на территории Сирии без согласия сирийского руководства. Также ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ передал библиотеке Университета ряд изданий, выпущенных в МГИМО на английском языке по проблематике контроля над вооружениями, выступил перед коллективом Посольства России на Кипре и старшеклассниками Русской общеобразовательной школы в Лимассоле, дал интервью русскоязычной радиостанции по актуальным вопросам мировой политики.

Трансатлантическая ядерная солидарность в учениях ВВС НАТО

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе «Открытый эфир» на телеканале «Звезда».

Почему в Германии начали отрабатывать действия на случай ядерной войны?

В программе показана подробная таблица тактического ядерного оружия США, в том числе выполняющего стратегические ядерные задачи, и обозначены ключевые особенности новой высокоточной корректируемой американской ядерной авиабомбы В-61-12. По мнению эксперта ЦВПИ, общее количество тактических авиабомб США, складированных в Европе (по экспертным оценкам около 200 единиц) занижено по меньшей мере в четыре раза.

Эфир от 19 октября.

Источник: телеканал «Звезда»

Три цели пропаганды Киева применительно к «Азовстали»

 

С 17 апреля в украинских мессенджерах и иных социальных сетях активно распространяются фейковые видеоролики и текстовые утверждения, в которых говорится, якобы, о нахождении в подвалах завода «Азовсталь» «сотен жителей Мариуполя», не имеющих возможности покинуть город. Такие утверждения с большой охотой подхватили многие западные пропагандистские центры.

В одном видеоролике командир националистического полка «Азов» подполковник Денис Прокопенко обращается к лидерам Европы с просьбой о создании гуманитарного коридора для эвакуации мирных жителей города, якобы, находящихся на заводе «Азовсталь», в третьи страны. Вместе с его обращением размещается видео, где показаны украинские женщины с детьми. Другое видео содержит обращение четырехлетней девочки Алисы, которая, мол, уже полтора месяца живет в бункере под заводом «Азовсталь» в блокированном Мариуполе.

Все материалы сняты в разных местах, так как цвет стен и освещение  помещений для съемок различны. Одновременно в кадре с Прокопенко других людей нет. Рассказы женщин и детей на втором видео достаточно детальны, но упоминаний о том, что они находятся на «Азовстали», нет вообще. Девочка Алиса также говорит, что находится в каком-то неизвестном бункере. В бомбоубежище, где собрались мирные жители, довольно шумно, а на видео с Прокопенко царит полная тишина. Значит этот «азовец» расположился в неизвестном пустом убежище или подвале. Поэтому не исключено, что «видеорепортажи» с участием женщин и детей могли быть записаны в любых бомбоубежищах Украины.

Примечательно то, что на втором плане видео с гражданскими лицами в кадре отчетливо виден участник недавнего украинского пропагандистского телесюжета, сыгравший роль «русского», которого казнит украинка из Львова. Участие этого актера в данном видео свидетельствует о его постановочном характере.

О том, что на заводе «Азовсталь» нет мирного населения, рассказывали сдавшиеся в плен украинские военнослужащие и националисты. Более того, 16 апреля президент Украины Зеленский в интервью украинским СМИ, угрожая отказом продолжать переговоры с Россией, не упоминал о нахождении на «Азовстали» мирных жителей, а говорил лишь об укрывшихся на этом заводе украинских военнослужащих.

19 и 20 апреля российские войска с 14:00 в очередной раз открыли сразу три гуманитарных коридора с территории завода «Азовсталь» для свободного выхода украинских военнослужащих и боевиков националистических формирований, готовых добровольно сложить оружие и сдаться, а также для эвакуации мирных граждан, которые, по заявлениям украинской стороны, якобы, там находятся. По состоянию на 22:00 девятнадцатого апреля и на следующий день к 19:00 часам указанными коридорами никто не воспользовался. Отдельные гражданские лица, которых приписали к «защитникам» завода и которые были спасены российским военнослужащими и представителями ДНР, были собраны на подступах к предприятию, а не его территории, которая интенсивно простреливается со всех сторон.

Согласно содержанию радиоперехватов, командиры оставшихся на «Азовстали» вооруженных формирований, осознавая безысходность своего положения, готовы сложить оружие, но только по команде из Киева. Без получения такого приказа командиры украинских вооруженных формирований не могут самостоятельно принять решение, так как за указанные действия на Украине их ждет военный трибунал с жестким приговором, вплоть до расстрела. Поэтому националисты из «Азова» планируют устроить очередную провокацию, обвинив российских военных в уничтожении мирных жителей.

Данная акция украинской стороны преследует цель убедить европейскую общественность в наличии как можно большего числа гражданского населения в подвалах блокированного завода в Мариуполе.

К сожалению, некоторые российские военкоры, освещающие события вокруг завода «Азовсталь», со ссылкой на неназванных украинских военнопленных в своих репортажах повторяют их «сказки» о том, что вместе с ними на заводе, якобы, находятся их семьи.

Подобные утверждения представляются сомнительными по двум причинам. Во-первых, никакой мужчина, имеющий семью, да еще с детьми, не возьмет ее с собой в подвалы этого крупнейшего завода, где отсутствуют элементарные санитарные условия для проживания, там более для длительного. Где нет горячей воды и электричества. Но осуществляется бесконечная стрельба и который обстреливается тяжелыми видами вооружений. Во-вторых, никто из числа вышедших оттуда бандеровцев, которые добровольно сложили оружие, не признал факта размещения там женщин и детей. Но зато признали факт наличия там иностранных наемников – до 400 человек. Скрыв одних, но назвав других? Также неправдоподобно.

В этой связи представляется целесообразным, чтобы российские корреспонденты, находящиеся около завода «Азовсталь, тщательно проверяли информацию, которую излагают им отказавшиеся воевать украинские военнослужащие. Не исключено, что такая «информация» для передачи представителям СМИ была предварительно согласована. По это причине все их показания о размещении мирных жителей на этом заводе, должны сниматься на телекамеры или записываться на диктофоны с указанием всех ключевых установочных данных подобных украинских «свидетелей» с предупреждением об их ответственности за дачу ложных показаний. Их перекрестный допрос по отдельности вывел бы на чистую воду лжецов.

За распространение непроверенных слухов о пребывании «мирных жителей» в подвалах завода «Азовсталь» полную ответственность несут и российские корреспонденты, которые должны ясно себе представлять, что военный противник намеренно использует подобную дезинформацию в своих пропагандистских целях.

А цель очередной уловки украинских пропагандистов была и остается неизменно триединой.

Во-первых, через предвзятых европейских лидеров и представителей международных организаций добиться от России открытия «зеленого коридора» для обеспечения выхода украинских нацистов и иностранных наемников из Мариуполя под видом мирных беженцев.

Во-вторых, выколотить от своих натовских покровителей побольше смертоносных видов вооружений и денег на ведение войны.

В-третьих, создать еще один негативный фон в отношении России, которая борется с карателями и военными преступниками гуманными методами и не прибегая к лживым пропагандистским манипуляциям.

Автор: В.П. Козин – член-корреспондент РАВН

 

Тупик имени Трампа

Контроль над вооружениями – рифы и отмели американской политики

В 2020 году продолжался процесс обрушения деликатного механизма контроля над вооружениями (КНВ). За четыре года каденции Дональда Трампа Москва и Вашингтон не подписали ни одного договора или соглашения в этой сфере.

В 2018 году тогдашний глава Белого дома под надуманными предлогами распорядился выйти из многосторонней иранской ядерной сделки, в 2019-м – из двустороннего Договора РСМД и международного Договора по торговле оружием, а в 2020-м – из Договора по открытому небу. Ни один американский президент не был столь эффективен в разрушении системы контроля над вооружениями, нежели Дональд Трамп. Более того, в утвержденной в 2018 году ядерной стратегии США содержится прямое признание о возможности возобновления ядерных испытаний на полигоне в Неваде.

После трехлетней тянучки осенью прошлого года советники Трампа предложили вариант ограниченной пролонгации Договора СНВ-3 в области национальной безопасности и принципов стратегической стабильности страны, ставший для России неприемлемым. Вашингтон игнорировал предложение Москвы о взаимном моратории на развертывание новых ядерных ракет средней и меньшей дальности там, где их нет, например в Европе. Однако подписанный в ноябре 2020 года корпорацией «Локхид Мартин» и армией США контракт на создание прототипа ракет средней дальности означает, что такой документ Вашингтон не интересует.

Республиканская администрация Штатов не пожелала подписать Договоры о европейской безопасности и о предотвращении размещения оружия в космосе, оба проекта в полном формате с преамбулами и оперативными статьями давно подготовлены соответственно РФ и КНР и известны и Вашингтону, и мировой общественности.

Республиканская администрация Штатов не пожелала подписать Договоры о европейской безопасности и о предотвращении размещения оружия в космосе, оба проекта в полном формате с преамбулами и оперативными статьями давно подготовлены соответственно РФ и КНР и известны и Вашингтону, и мировой общественности.

В заключительный год президентства Трампа Белый дом ничего не предпринял для оживления процесса в сфере КНВ. Единственным достижением, хотя и явно запоздавшим, стало назначение спецпредставителя президента по КНВ Маршалла Биллингсли, не имеющего опыта работы в этой сфере.

КНВ: туманные принципы Вашингтона

Правда, в 2019 году президент Трамп распространил по миру призыв о важности формулирования «нового похода к проблеме КНВ». В чем состояла его новация и к кому обращена, ни он, ни его скудная группа специалистов по этой проблематике так и не смогли разъяснить мировому сообществу. Скорее это был вброс, чтобы прикрыть пребывание этого деликатного процесса в глухом тупике.

О нежелании республиканского руководства США урегулировать проблему КНВ говорит опубликованное Госдепом в апреле 2020 года исследование в названной области, подготовленное доктором Кристофером Фордом, занимавшим в ту пору должность замгоссекретаря по вопросам международной безопасности и нераспространения. Впоследствии материалы о проблематике КНВ выходили в Вашингтоне периодически.

“За предложением американцев заморозить ядерные боезаряды России стоят скрытые попытки затормозить разработку и создание перспективного российского оружия, особенно гиперзвукового”

Но эти писания лишь запутывали проблему и не предлагали конструктивные решения. В частности, Форд утверждал, что описанные несоблюдения Москвой двусторонних и многосторонних договоров в области КНВ были вызваны ухудшением российско-американских отношений.

В России удивились предложению Форда, что, мол, надо перейти к большему охвату сокращений различных видов вооружений, чем в предыдущие годы, когда в основном, по его убеждению, достигались договоренности об их ограничении. Это неверное суждение. СССР и США в ходе сдерживания гонки стратегических наступательных вооружений сначала их ограничивали, что отразилось в Договорах ОСВ-1 и ОСВ-2. И лишь потом приступили к выработке реальных сокращений своих СНВ, что и привело к подписанию СНВ-3.

Основная цель исследований Госдепа США по проблематике КНВ явно состояла в разоблачении России, якобы не соблюдающей его принципы и договоренности. Кристофер Форд, например, обвинял Москву в нарушении Договора о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний, хотя после его ратификации в РФ еще в 2000 году на бывших ядерных полигонах России стоит полная тишина. Это фиксируют многочисленные сейсмостанции, развернутые по миру.

То есть американская сторона при Трампе крайне отрицательно относилась к проблеме КНВ. Такой подход негативно проявился в отношении 13 двусторонних и многосторонних договорных актов в этой области. Здесь необходимо учитывать, что шесть из них имеют прямое или косвенное отношение к проблеме контроля над ракетно-ядерными вооружениями.

По весьма точному выражению замглавы МИДа РФ Сергея Рябкова, курирующего проблематику контроля над вооружениями и отношения России и США, Вашингтон стал серийным нарушителем международных договоров и обязательств в сфере КНВ.

Игнорировать не получится

Разрушительным шагом американцев стало реальное понижение порога применения ЯО за счет расширения политических оснований или условий для его применения. Принятая в 2018 году ядерная стратегия повысила шансы его использования практически в любой точке мира.

Новая ядерная стратегия США включает 14 оснований для применения ЯО, часть которых имеет нарочито туманные формулировки. Они позволяют американцам, например, нанести первый ядерный удар в случае неких «технологических прорывов», «геополитических вызовов». Для сравнения: экс-президент Обама включал в свою ЯС только шесть оснований для применения ЯО.

О понижении порога применения ЯО Вашингтоном говорит также то, что американцы установили ядерные боезаряды малой мощности W76-2 на ракетную АПЛ «Теннесси» (бортовой номер 774) класса «Огайо», уже выходившую на боевое патрулирование в Мировой океан. По предварительным оценкам, такими боезарядами оснастят и остальные ПЛАРБ этого класса, а также ракетоносцы класса «Колумбия», которые начнут нести боевую службу с 2031 года.

В мае и августе, затем в сентябре и декабре 2020 года Маршалл Биллингсли заявил, что Вашингтон готов рассмотреть продление Договора СНВ-3, но при согласии Москвы с предварительными условиями: урегулирования проблемы «увеличения Россией количества нестратегических ядерных вооружений», усиления верификационных механизмов по проверке выполнения положений продленного варианта договора или нового договорного акта, а также создания в перспективе возможности для подключения КНР к будущим российско-американским договоренностям по сокращению СНВ.

В заявлении об увеличении Москвой количества нестратегических ядерных вооружений нет правды. Что касается усиления верификационных механизмов будущих соглашений, то они всегда должны соответствовать содержанию заключаемого документа. Упорство Вашингтона вовлечь Пекин в Договор СНВ-3 явно непрофессионально, так как этот договорный акт пришлось бы начать обсуждать и согласовывать заново. А заставить китайцев войти в будущее соглашение – пустое дело: Пекин к инициативе относится резко отрицательно, поскольку существует дисбаланс в ядерных вооружениях КНР и США, а также средствах их доставки.

Что касается высказанного Штатами предложения о необходимости заморозить ЯБ России, то за ним скрыты попытки затормозить разработку и создание высокоточного перспективного оружия, особенно гиперзвукового. Американцы даже пытались включить в переговорный процесс сокращения СНВ все семь новых перспективных российских видов вооружений, продемонстрировав удовлетворение в связи с заявлением Москвы о распространении положений Договора СНВ-3 на гиперзвуковой боевой блок «Авангард» и новую МБР «Сармат».

Есть по меньшей мере две причины расширения американской позиции. Москва слишком настойчиво предлагала американским визави обсуждение ГПББ «Авангард» и МБР «Сармат» с целью вовлечения Вашингтона в диалог по проблематике КНВ. Вторая причина в том, что в конце 2019 года американцам продемонстрировали «Авангард», словно он входил в список СНВ. Естественно, что в Вашингтоне такой жест расценили как признание Москвой реальной увязки названного ГПББ с перспективной МБР «Сармат». Но она не может считаться ракетой существующего типа по Договору СНВ-3, пока не пройдут все испытания, не начнется ее массовое производство и не будут установлены ядерные боезаряды.

Нельзя просто так отдавать Вашингтону самые главные козыри. Новые системы оружия, о которых идет речь, позволяют в разы укрепить не только безопасность России, но и стратегическую глобальную стабильность, поскольку их принятие на вооружение позволяет выправить дисбалансы в ядерных, противоракетных и тяжелых обычных вооружениях, возникшие по инициативе США и в их пользу.

В этой связи принципиально важно отметить, что к концу 2020 года Белый дом так и не включил в переговорную формулу свои гиперзвуковые боевые блоки и средства их доставки в виде новых перспективных ядерных МБР или ракет других типов.

Диалога с Америкой о новых российских системах оружия не может быть без обсуждения создания США глобальной системы ПРО, планов американцев о размещении оружия в космосе и ряда других программ, вызывающих озабоченность Москвы.

США по-прежнему придерживаются стратегии расширенного ядерного сдерживания, то есть раскрытия ядерного зонтика над союзниками по НАТО и внеблоковыми сателлитами. Именно Штаты, не Россия, сохраняют установку «эскалация ради деэскалации» (escalation for de-escalation strategy).

США единственные в мире имеют с НАТО «соглашения о разделении ядерной ответственности» или «соглашения о совместных ядерных миссиях» (nuclear sharing agreements), в ходе которых отрабатывается применение ЯО воздушного базирования, в том числе военнослужащими государств – членов альянса, не имеющих ЯО на своей территории и не располагающих собственными ядерными арсеналами.

Все военно-стратегические установки нанизываются на незыблемый постулат, существующий со времени создания и применения ядерного оружия Штатами в 1945 году. В соответствии с ним США могут использовать ЯО в превентивном ударе (по небольшому количеству целей) и в первом упреждающем ударе (по значительному количеству целей). Как зафиксировано в ядерной стратегии 2018 года: «США никогда не соглашались взять обязательство о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе, такая политика является неоправданной и в настоящее время».

Кроме того, американцы сохраняют стратегию нанесения ЯУ в соответствии с концепцией запуск по предупреждению (launch-on-warning), а также применение ЯО даже до пуска ракетных средств противника (launch-prior-to launch). В них не делается такой важной оговорки, что это может произойти только после получения достоверной и тщательно проверенной информации о ракетном нападении, как, например, это зафиксировано в основополагающих документах России о применении ЯО.

Особенности нынешней американской ядерной стратегии позволяют однозначно квалифицировать ее как безусловное наступательное ядерное сдерживание, что радикально отличается от российской доктрины, которую можно охарактеризовать как условное оборонительное ядерное сдерживание.

Одновременно Вашингтон продолжает бесконтрольно развивать систему глобального противоракетного щита, делая упор на развертывании сил у передовых рубежей границ России и КНР. При этом широко используются противоракетные средства морского и наземного базирования. Хотя новые российские ударные системы преодоления ПРО США уже есть, нельзя полностью игнорировать эту растущую угрозу, например, от средств морского базирования, поскольку КПУ ПРО ВМС США к 2042 году будут установлены приблизительно на 90 боевых кораблях, что составит четверть корабельного состава.

Исходящая от американской стороны опасность перехвата баллистических и крылатых ракет России кроется в большом количестве ракет-перехватчиков, а также в возможности загрузки в ПУ вместо оборонительных ракет-перехватчиков наступательных КР типа «Томагавк» и высокоточных гиперзвуковых систем вооружений. Например, на операционных базах ПРО США в Румынии и Польше, а в перспективе – размещение ударно-боевых систем ПРО в космосе.

Обвинения без доказательств

Несмотря на очевидные обстоятельства, представители администрации Трампа неоднократно публично пытались переложить всю ответственность за возникший тупик в процессе КНВ исключительно на Россию, обвинив ее в нарушении почти всех договоров в этой области, а также в понижении порога применения ЯО.

Среди нарушений Вашингтон неоднократно называл не все договорные акты, а лишь часть. Упоминаются Договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, причем практически весь минувший год в заявлениях американцев односторонний выход США из ДРСМД оправдывался несоблюдением российской стороной: в РФ создали ОТР 9М729 (по классификации НАТО SSC-8). Также называются двусторонние российско-американские президентские инициативы 1991–1992 годов, Конвенция о запрещении химического оружия (КЗХО) и Договор об обычных вооруженных силах в Европе (ДОВСЕ).

Заговорив о «понижении порога применения ядерного оружия» российской стороной, американские представители не привели конкретных доказательств. Поскольку нет ничего подобного ни в ядерном разделе действующей Военной доктрины России, одобренной в декабре 2014 года, ни в Основах государственной политики Российской Федерации в области ядерного сдерживания.

Москву также критиковали за сохранение в ВС РФ арсенала тактического ЯО, словно ТЯО никогда не было или до сих пор нет у американцев.

Москва полностью выполнила президентские инициативы 1991–1992 годов: вне переговорного процесса или взаимных договоренностей на три четверти добровольно сократила количество тактических ядерных боезарядов в тот период времени, а также не объявляла об их наращивании.

Что касается ДРСМД, то не РФ, а именно США до его денонсации Вашингтоном в августе 2019 года нарушили этот договор 117 раз, когда при проверке эффективности ракет – перехватчиков глобальной системы ПРО их использовали в качестве ракет-мишеней ракеты средней и меньшей дальности, запрещенных этим договорным актом.

Куда пометет новая метла

В американском экспертном сообществе продолжается дискуссия о том, какова должна быть роль США в процессе КНВ при новой администрации Байдена – Харрис. Мнения разнятся. Сторонники жесткой линии выступают за продолжение твердой линии Трампа, «голуби», если их можно так назвать, настаивают на некоторой модификации такого подхода, но не в ущерб безопасности страны. Высказывается и мнение, что Байден может пойти на некоторые подвижки в процессе контроля над ЯВ, но при этом будет навязывать неприемлемые формулировки, попытается сохранить незыблемость американской стратегии ядерного сдерживания и односторонние преимущества при выработке формулы соотношения СНВ сторон. Как же будет на самом деле?

Избранный президент США Джо Байден неоднократно говорил о необходимости поиска новых и сохранения ранее заключенных международных соглашений по контролю над вооружениями.

С одной стороны, будучи вице-президентом в администрации Обамы, он показал себя умеренным сторонником ограничения РЯО и укрепления режима его нераспространения. Но с другой – после победы на выборах заявил, что восстановит контроль над вооружениями и нераспространением с субстантивной оговоркой: только в качестве центральной опоры глобального лидерства США. Это очень серьезный момент.

Администрация демократа Байдена планирует рассмотреть программу модернизации ядерного арсенала страны и его возможного сокращения и корректирования. По данным американских СМИ, Белый дом намерен пересмотреть программу объемом 1,2 триллиона долларов модернизации РЯО и сократить расходы на ядерные вооружения и их роль в стратегии страны. Но как бы то ни было, совершенствование американского ядерного арсенала будет продолжаться.

Известно, что Байден позитивно реагировал на возможность продления Договора СНВ-3. Его назначенец на пост госсекретаря Энтони Блинкен утверждал, что новую администрацию интересовал бы максимальный срок его пролонгации – до пяти. Как было объявлено, в конце января Москва и Вашингтон обменялись дипломатическими нотами о продлении Договора СНВ-3 до февраля 2026 года, причем на российских условиях. Похоже, что Вашингтон смог преодолеть свою деструктивную позицию в этом процессе, который несколько лет всячески тормозила предыдущая американская администрация, пытаясь выторговать для себя односторонние преимущества.

Нет сомнений, что пришедшая демократическая администрация продолжит курс на радикальную модернизацию американских РЯВ стратегического и тактического назначения, глобальное наращивание средств ПРО, в том числе морского базирования и на совершенствование обычных вооружений, в первую очередь делая упор на их выдвижение ближе к территориям РФ и КНР.

Похоже, что во внешней и военной политике нового американского руководства, а также в сфере КНВ могут произойти лишь некоторые корректировки. К концу ушедшего года имелась конкретика лишь по ограниченным направлениям предполагаемой деятельности демократической администрации в обозначенной области. Но сохраняется неопределенность по ключевым проблемам.

По этим причинам деятельность администрации Джо Байдена в области КНВ скорее всего будет двойственного характера и может меняться в зависимости как от развития региональной и глобальной ситуации в стратегической сфере, так и от степени влияния ближайшего окружения на главу государства. Но маловероятно, что новая администрация в Вашингтоне радикально изменит линию в области КНВ. В этом процессе всегда были и остаются и рифы, и отмели. Останутся они и в будущем.

Автор: В.П. Козин. Источник: “ВПК”

 

Тяжело в учениях, легко в Крыму: маневры ВС России на полуострове

 

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Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в эфире радио Sputnik

 

Свыше 10 тысяч военных, более тысячи единиц военной техники и десятки боевых кораблей. В Крыму начались крупные учения российской армии, на которые прибыл министр обороны Сергей Шойгу. Глава ведомства заявил, что вооруженные силы способны обеспечить надежную оборону страны, а также рассказал, что войска Южного и Западного военных округов начнут возвращаться с южных рубежей России в пункты постоянного базирования 23 апреля.

 

Угроза для Литвы - не прибытие российских войск в Белоруссию, а продолжение операций НАТО

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин прокомментировал заявление литовского министра обороны.


В.П. Козин: «Никакой угрозы Литве это не представляет. Представляет угрозу продолжение операции НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» в небе Литвы, ведущейся с 2004 года. Там задействованы самолеты-носители ядерного оружия. Кстати говоря, Италия с мае этого года получит новейшие американские ядерные авиабомбы В 61-12, каждая из которых в три раза мощнее «хиросимской» атомной бомбы, сброшенной США в 1945 году. А Италия участвует в этой операции».


Источник: РБК ТВ. Эфир от 19 января 2022г.

Удар по России:как в США спланировали ядерную атаку

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "ДОБРОВЭФИРЕ" на канале РЕН ТВ.

Эфир от 28 марта 2023г.

Удар по нефтебазе в Белгороде: предметный разбор полёта

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "Царьград.Главное".

1 апреля  российская территория была атакована украинскими неонацистами. Речь об атаке на нефтебазу в Белгороде. По словам губернатора региона, по нефтебазе ударили два украинских вертолета, которые "зашли на территорию России на низкой высоте". Атака привела к крупному пожару на нефтебазе. И тогда же стало известно, что в селе Никольское Белгородской области упал артиллерийский снаряд, выпущенный со стороны Украины.

Эфир от 1 апреля 2022г.

Источник: Царьград ТВ

Украина будет готова к получению любых видов вооружений, за исключением ядерного

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “Большой Newstalk” на канале RTVI.

Генсек НАТО заявил о готовности альянса вести диалог с Москвой. В то же время он напомнил о безусловном праве стран Европы самостоятельно выбирать свой путь развития. В Вашингтоне готовы ответить на агрессивные шаги в отношении Украины со стороны России увеличением объемов военной помощи Киеву. Эти обеспокоены в Минобороны России. Поставки Киеву, по мнению Сергея Шойгу, усугубляют ситуацию на Донбассе. Более того, США якобы готовит в Украине провокации с химическим оружием руками бойцов ЧВК.


В.П. Козин: “Украина будет готова к получению любых видов вооружений, за исключением ядерного. США и их ядерные союзники – Великобритания и Франция – не дадут Киеву ядерное оружие. Потому что Украина - это несостоятельное, националистическое, враждебное и очень агрессивное государство, существующее на европейском континенте”.


 

Украина готовит провокацию на ЗАЭС

Ведущий эксперт  ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “Мардан” на канале СоловьевLive

Эфир от 23 июня 2023г.

 

Украина. Доходный фронт

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “Специальный репортаж” на телеканале “Звезда”.

Подразделения ВСУ жалуются на отсутствие оружия и публично отказываются выполнять приказы командования.

Эфир от 1 июня 2022 г.

Ссылка на полную версию программы: https://tvzvezda.ru/schedule/programs/201510291058-7whr.htm/2022611131-ZcH9F.html

 

Украина: солдаты неудачи

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “Документальный спецпроект” на канале РЕН ТВ

По данным Минобороны России только за первые 2 дня наступления на Николаево-Криворожском направлении украинцы потеряли несколько тысяч солдат и офицеров погибшими!

Почему у контрнаступлений ВСУ нет никаких шансов?

Зачем украинские командиры отправляют бойцов в самое пекло без техники и боеприпасов?

Для чего ВСУ снимают постановочные ролики о своих мнимых победах на фронте?

Эксклюзивные признания пленных ВСУшников. Почему даже элитные подразделения украинской армии сдаются в плен без боя?

Эфир от 10 сентября 2022г.

 

Украинский конфликт раздувается и направляется США и НАТО

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “60 минут” на телеканале “Россия 1”.

Эфир от 26 января 2022г.

Украинский кризис. Откровения российского военного эксперта. Если они нападут на Донбасс…

Интервью ведущего эксперта ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козина итальянскому телеканалу «Биоблу».


В.П. Козин: «Многие ждут «агрессии» России против Украины. Но она не начнется никогда, потому что Россия на собирается совершать никакой агрессии против нее. Наоборот, Украина собирается совершить масштабную агрессию против двух самостоятельных республик на Донбассе. Такая агрессия может начаться в любое время, поскольку США и НАТО подталкивают Киев совершить этот абсолютно неразумный шаг».


Эфир от 14 февраля 2022г.

 

 

Укрепляется система СПРН страны

В связи с переводом в декабре 2017 года на боевое дежурство трех радиолокационных станций средств предупреждения о ракетном нападении (СПРН) типа «Воронеж» редакция Интернет-сайта ЦВПИ обратилась к ведущему эксперту центра, профессору Академии военных наук Российской Федерации Владимиру Козину с просьбой прокомментировать этот факт.

Позитивно отреагировав на это сообщение, военный эксперт ЦВПИ уточнил, что заступившие на боевое дежурство одновременно три радиолокационные станции СПРН высокой заводской готовности типа «Воронеж» были сооружены и развернуты в Алтайском и Красноярском краях, а также в Оренбургской области. Таким образом, с вводом трех названных станций в Российской Федерации будет установлен непрерывный радиолокационный контроль практически за всеми ракетоопасными направлениями. Ранее четыре аналогичные РЛС были введены в действие в Ленинградской, Иркутской и Калининградской областях, а также в Красноярском крае. Намечено установить новую РЛС типа «Воронеж» в 2019 году под Мурманском, а в 2019-2020 годы планируется начать строительство еще одной такой радиолокационной станции в Крыму.

Владимир Козин считает, что с помощью современных и высокоэффективных СПРН Россия обеспечит своевременное информирование военно-политическое руководства страны о любых случайных или преднамеренных космических, а также околоземных ракетных и аэродинамических угрозах. Это означает, что одновременно будет усилена система своевременного оповещения ее союзников и друзей о подобных угрозах, которые также могут проецироваться на их территорию извне.

По мнению военного эксперта ЦВПИ, реализация столь грандиозного и стратегически важного плана позволит укрепить обороноспособность России, ее союзников и друзей в условиях, когда ведущие страны-члены НАТО во главе с Соединенными Штатами наращивают различные виды вооружений, постоянно проводят масштабные военные учения вокруг территории России и около территорий союзных и дружественных с ней государств, а также размещают в непосредственной близости от России универсальные пусковые установки системы ПРО под размещение в них ракетных средств двойного назначения.

Вполне очевидно, что помимо усиления радиолокационных средств предупреждения о ракетном нападении Российская Федерация должна развивать и ударно-боевой компонент своей противоракетной инфраструктуры, располагая, например, ее морскую составляющую как можно ближе от мест потенциального запуска баллистических и крылатых ракет другими государствами.

Профессор Академии военных наук России считает, что "реализация такой задачи приобретает особое значение с учетом трех ключевых военно-политических факторов".

Во-первых, в условиях вероятного выхода Вашингтона из Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности после принятого в 2017 году американским Конгрессом решения о разработке новой крылатой мобильно-грунтовой ракеты наземного базирования двойного назначения, запрещенную этим бессрочным договорным актом, которую Пентагон может разместить в Европе и Азии.

Во-вторых, на фоне непрекращающихся заявлений нынешнего руководства США применить масштабную военную силу против КНДР.

В-третьих, с учетом постоянных угроз со стороны Вашингтона в адрес Ирана в связи с развитием им ракетной программы, не связанной с ядерным оружием, которую могут потенциально реализовать еще 31 государство мира.

Усилить пропаганду в поддержку «Авангарду»

В странах НАТО фальсифицируется не только история Второй мировой, но и современная политика России в сфере контроля над вооружениями. Это звенья одной цепи, части информационно-пропагандистской войны. В последние годы явление приобрело масштабный и более изощренный характер.
 
В мире создается устойчивое представление о России как стране, которая спит и видит себя хозяйкой новых территорий и покоренных народов, готовой ради этого развязать локальную или даже глобальную ядерную войну. Наши внешнеполитические инициативы, направленные на укрепление стратегической стабильности, на снижение военных потенциалов, извращаются. Таким образом обосновывается односторонний выход Вашингтона из международных договоров по контролю над вооружениями. Заметим: ни в одном даже не официальном документе США и НАТО применительно к Российской Федерации не употребляется слово «партнер». Пропаганда предполагает сохранение образа нашей страны в трех ипостасях: «противника, агрессора, аннексора». Ярлыками ведущие страны Запада и их союзники оправдывают масштабные военные приготовления и учения, имеющие антироссийскую направленность, размещение комбинированных группировок передового базирования близ территории РФ.
 
У российских рубежей внедряются наступательные элементы «чикагской триады» – оперативно-стратегического механизма в составе ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных видов вооружений, к которым вскоре присоединятся ударно-космические системы. Одновременно очерняются роль и значение ВС РФ в противодействии террористическому интернационалу, созданному в Афганистане, Ираке и Сирии при прямой финансовой, консультативной и военно-технической помощи государств, входящих в НАТО.
 
Пропаганда ориентирована на выработку у граждан Российской Федерации комплекса неполноценности и неуверенности в том, что армия сможет обеспечить оборону и безопасность государства, суверенитет союзников и друзей. Культивируется негативное отношение к военным расходам, которые являются сбалансированными и адекватными обстановке.
 
У взломщика всегда найдется повод
 
Штаты и НАТО, где Вашингтон традиционно господствует, определяя основные формы и масштабы военной активности альянса, используют широкий спектр приемов извращения политики РФ в сфере контроля над вооружениями. Принципы лжи опираются на распространение состряпанной информации о «нарушениях» российской стороной актов в области сокращения вооружений и ограничения военной деятельности, а также искаженной интерпретации ядерной доктрины РФ. Обвинения Вашингтона сводятся к двум эпизодам: недоказанным до сих пор фактам несоблюдения Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД), а также нарушению нами Договора по открытому небу применительно к Калининградской области.
 
РФ по-прежнему «виновна» в несоблюдении ДРСМД, несмотря на то, что он со 2 августа 2019 года после одностороннего выхода из него Соединенных Штатов под ложным и несостоятельным предлогом не существует. Подобной линии упорно придерживаются генсек НАТО Йенс Столтенберг и западная пропагандистская машина.
 
Вновь, как и до «взлома» американцами ДРСМД, как ключевой аргумент используется российская оперативно-тактическая ракета наземного базирования 9М729 (SSC-8 по классификации НАТО). Она никогда не подпадала под договорные ограничения по простой причине: максимальное расстояние ее полета не превышает 480 километров, что на 20 километров меньше минимальной дальности, с которой начинают дистанционный отчет ракеты, включенные в ДРСМД.
 
В этой истории есть две иные реальности. США вышли из ДРСМД, чтобы создать новые КР и БР наземного базирования средней дальности в ядерном и неядерном снаряжении с последующим их размещением в Европе и Азии. Для пропагандистского обеспечения акции ведется целенаправленная пропаганда. Ее особенность в том, что допускается критика развязывания тотальной ядерной войны, но одновременно глушится протест против развертывания новых американских ракетно-ядерных систем средней дальности. В крайнем случае ставится на одну доску осуждение и США, и РФ. Об этом свидетельствуют встречи общественно-политических и экспертных кругов, проведенные в столицах и крупных городах Европейского континента в прошлом году.
 
Реальность вторая, связанная с ДРСМД, заключается в том, что за последние 20 лет до выхода из него США при проверке эффективности американской глобальной системы ПРО Пентагон использовал 117 учебных ракет средней и меньшей дальности шести типов в качестве мишеней для реального поражения.
 
То есть Вашингтон 117 раз нарушил договор в отличие от России, которую в этом упрекнуть нельзя. К сожалению, этот вопиющий факт почти не упоминается в заявлениях российских официальных лиц. Хотя все случаи пусков ракет при тестировании системы ПРО отражались в пресс-релизах Управления по ПРО Минобороны США и в двух докладах по данной проблематике Исследовательской службы американского конгресса, вышедших в 2018 и 2019 годах.
 
Что касается «нарушения» российской стороной Договора об открытом небе в Калининградской области, то в нем есть положение, которое разрешает любой стране-участнице вводить ограничения на полеты зарубежных инспекционных групп в зонах интенсивного воздушного движения пассажирских ЛА. В данном случае это касается аэропорта «Храброво» – единственного действующего гражданского аэродрома международного значения в российском эксклаве.
 
С другой стороны, США неоднократно запрещали российским самолетам с инспекторами на борту летать над Аляской и Гавайскими островами, где размещены ударные и информационно-разведывательные средства американского глобального «противоракетного щита».
 
Западный мистер No
 
По вине Штатов и остальных участников НАТО длительное время не решаются актуальные вопросы обеспечения безопасности над Балтикой и в прибрежном регионе, хотя группа прибалтийских государств неоднократно ставила эти вопросы и нагнетала обстановку в СМИ. Но как впоследствии выяснилось – делался акцент на их урегулировании в сугубо пропагандистском плане.
 
Становится острой транспондерная проблема. В НАТО недовольны тем, что российские военные самолеты в районе Балтийского моря летают с выключенными транспондерами. Странно, что к этой теме подключилась Финляндии, которая не входит в альянс. Но когда российская сторона более года назад предложила государствам, входящим в НАТО, договориться о том, чтобы военные самолеты сторон, летающие в воздушном пространстве над Балтийским регионом, использовали транспондеры, как это делают сейчас гражданские самолеты, то получила твердый отказ.
 
Руководство альянса всякий раз обращало внимание российской стороны на сближение военных самолетов и боевых кораблей в акватории Балтики. Но мы обязаны реагировать на многократно возросшую активность ВВС и ВМС НАТО в непосредственной близости от своих рубежей. Не отслеживать в регионе все передвижения таких сил, а также полеты самолетов тяжелой стратегической авиации США – носителей ядерного оружия было бы крайне опрометчиво и просто опасно. Москва предложила НАТО условиться о минимально допустимых дистанциях сближения как военных кораблей и ЛА. Но руководство альянса проигнорировало и эту инициативу.
 
Пропагандистская машина Запада всякий раз поднимает волну возмущения по поводу учений российских ВС на западном направлении, хотя альянс со своей стороны за последнее время в два раза увеличил их количество – до 300 учений и маневров в год. Причем около половины имеют явную антироссийскую и антибелорусскую направленность, отрабатываются наступательные операции. Примерно год назад Москва передала штаб-квартире НАТО предложения договориться о том, чтобы отодвинуть зону учений российских и натовских армий от линии соприкосновения на согласованную конкретную глубину, что было бы вполне логично. Но в альянсе не захотели обсуждать и эту тему.
 
Естественно, мы сделали вывод о том, что в планы западного блока не входят разработка и осуществление совместных мер по укреплению доверия и безопасности. Возникает естественный вопрос: зачем поднимать темы, по которым у НАТО нет желания договариваться? В расчете, что Россия пойдет на односторонние уступки? Бесполезно.
 
Не надо размахивать зонтиком
 
Ядерная доктрина РФ постоянно искажается не только в западных экспертных сообществах, но и в российских кругах, поддерживающих тесные контакты с научно-исследовательскими и учебными центрами в государствах НАТО. Неизменны обвинения в адрес России в том, что в ее ядерной доктрине есть положение о применении ЯО в первом ударе, хотя в этом документе нет ничего даже отдаленно похожего. ВС РФ могут применить ЯО исключительно в ответ на ОМП или использование обычных видов вооружений против России, если под угрозу будет поставлено существование государства.
 
Ложны утверждения США и НАТО о том, что ядерная доктрина России якобы имеет положение «эскалация для деэскалации», то есть применения ЯО для ослабления региональных конфликтов с использованием сил общего назначения (первое значение этого термина) или для «продавливания» договоренностей в области сокращения РЯВ (второе значение этого термина). В нашем документе вообще нет таких положений.
 
Долгое время в западных политических кругах и в экспертном сообществе распространяется слух о намерении РФ применять ТЯО против государств НАТО для защиты русскоязычного населения. За последние годы различные научно-исследовательские центры альянса подготовили несколько сценариев на эту тему. Теперь они дополнились новацией о якобы нашей готовности задействовать ЯБЗ малой мощности. Но в российской ядерной доктрине подобные положения также отсутствуют.
 
Ядерную доктрину РФ можно кратко охарактеризовать как «условное оборонительное сдерживание», поскольку Россия никому не угрожает.
 
Зато все три ядерные установки имеются в ныне действующей ядерной стратегии, утвержденной Дональдом Трампом. Кроме того, Штаты уже существенно дополнили ее. Стратегическое и тактическое ЯО США может быть использовано на основе положения о «расширенном ядерном сдерживании», то есть в соответствии с установкой о раскрытии американского «ядерного зонтика» над всеми членами НАТО (28 государств) и над внеблоковыми союзниками: Австралией, Израилем, Южной Кореей, Японией. Таким образом, американское ядерное прикрытие распространяется на 32 государства.
 
Американцы заключили с союзниками «соглашения о разделении ядерной ответственности» или «соглашения о совместных ядерных миссиях», в ходе которых отрабатывается использование ЯО воздушного базирования, в том числе пилотами из стран альянса, не имеющих на своей территории американского ядерного арсенала. Вместе с тем Штаты – единственное государство, на постоянной основе имеющее ТЯО и авиационные средства его доставки за границей. Оно уже почти 70 лет складировано в Европе (Бельгия, Италия, Нидерланды, ФРГ), а также в Турции.
 
Вашингтон, Лондон и Париж на постоянной основе держат авиационные средства доставки ЯО, задействованные в операции ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование». В ней используются четыре типа самолетов «двойного назначения». Круглосуточные полеты в течение всего года уже 15 лет проводятся в небе Латвии, Литвы, Эстонии с авиабаз «Лиелварде», «Зокняй» и «Эмари». То есть в непосредственной близости от российских и белорусских границ. Очевидно, что надо более решительно и последовательно ставить вопрос о полном прекращении этой провокационной деятельности перед всеми государствами альянса, особенно перед тремя ядерными державами.
 
Несколько европейских государств, входящих в НАТО, уже получили или скоро получат новый истребитель-бомбардировщик американского производства F-35A, сертифицированный под доставку высокоточных корректируемых ядерных авиабомб нового поколения В-61-12. Не приходится гадать, где они будут базироваться.
 
Американский ядерный туман
 
Нынешняя американская администрация резко понизила ядерный порог ЯО. Иными словами, повысила возможности и расширила основания для применения ЯО. Теперь их 14. Для сравнения: в президентство Барака Обамы было семь. Напомню: у России только два подобных основания.
 
В ядерной стратегии, утвержденной Дональдом Трампом 2 февраля 2018 года, имеются шесть положений, которые не требуют особых дополнительных разъяснений, поскольку их значение в целом представляется понятным. Американское ядерное оружие может быть применено для сдерживания противника от применения ЯО и обычных видов вооружений любого масштаба и при любых обстоятельствах; в качестве ответного удара на нападение стратегических неядерных сил другого государства; для защиты союзников и партнеров от ядерного и неядерного нападения извне; в случае нападения на союзников США, обладающих ядерным оружием; в ответ на нападение на США, их союзников и партнеров, а также на гражданское население и гражданские объекты, в случае применения боезарядов малой мощности в агрессии регионального масштаба. Но есть восемь нарочито туманно прописанных оснований применения ЯО, которые американцы до сих пор затрудняются адекватно разъяснить мировому сообществу.
 
Например, ЯО стратегического и тактического назначения может быть применено, если оперативные недостатки уменьшат эффективность ядерных сил США (здесь и далее возникают вопросы: какие оперативные недостатки?); при появлении «неожиданных вызовов» (откуда и каких?); при появлении «геополитических вызовов», которые будут угрожать любому элементу американских ЯС (опять-таки хотелось бы знать: каких именно?); с возникновением многочисленных будущих рисков и неопределенностей (что имеется в виду?); в ответ на «новые формы агрессии» (в чем они состоят, не уточняется); в ответ на появление «новых противников», развитие у них ядерных сил и изменений в их доктринах и стратегиях (каков критерий «новых противников»?); против государств – участников Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия (ДНЯО), если они нарушают его (кто это определит – Вашингтон единолично?), и наконец, при появлении «технических вызовов» или «технологических прорывов у противников», а также при кибератаках (в чем будут выражаться подобные «вызовы и прорывы»?).
 
Кроме того, американские ядерные силы имеют установку наносить удар «по предупреждению» и «до пуска ракетных средств противника».
 
Все нанизывается на постулат, существующий с создания и применения ядерного оружия Штатами в 1945 году: оно может использоваться в первом превентивном ударе (по небольшому количеству целей) и в упреждающем ударе (по значительному количеству целей). Как записано в американской нынешней ядерной стратегии: «США никогда не соглашались взять обязательство о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе, такая политика является неоправданной в настоящее время».
 
В данном контексте стоит напомнить, что после применения ядерного оружия против Хиросимы и Нагасаки американское военно-политическое руководство намеревалось использовать ЯО в семи случаях: в Карибский и Берлинский кризисы, в региональных конфликтах, где активно задействовались американские ВС.
 
Изложенные особенности позволяют однозначно квалифицировать нынешнюю американскую ядерную стратегию как «безусловное наступательное ядерное сдерживание», что радикально отличает ее от российской.
 
Администрация Дональда Трампа предлагает в 2024 финансовом году израсходовать на военные цели 796,2 миллиарда долларов. Она же подтвердила готовность выделить на создание новой стратегической ядерной триады в ближайшие 30 лет от 1,2 триллиона (в неизменных ценах) до 1,7 триллиона долларов (в ценах с учетом предполагаемой инфляции). Ни одно государство в мире не может позволить себе запланировать столь огромные ассигнования на военные цели за один год и на создание принципиально элементов полностью обновленной стратегической ядерной триады на три десятилетия.
 
С учетом всех этих обстоятельств становится понятным, почему в Вашингтоне и штаб-квартире НАТО в бельгийском районе Эвере постоянно наскакивают на ядерную доктрину РФ. Цель – скрыть опасный наступательный характер стратегии США и НАТО не только применительно к России и КНР, но и для глобальной безопасности в целом.
 
Недоговороспособный Вашингтон
 
В Соединенных Штатах негативно относятся к 13 проблемам в сфере контроля над вооружениями, в том числе к шести, имеющим прямое или косвенное отношение к ЯО. Вашингтон использовал весь свой арсенал отрицания. Он не соблюдает Договор СНВ-3, ДНЯО и Договор по открытому небу, Конвенцию о запрещении химоружия и многократно, начиная с 1999 года, нарушал ДРСМД во время его действия.
 
США в одностороннем порядке денонсировали Договор об ограничении систем ПРО, совместный всеобъемлющий план действий (известный как соглашение об иранской ядерной программе), Международный договор о торговле оружием, а также ДРСМД.
 
Белый дом отказался ратифицировать Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний и адаптированный Договор об обычных вооруженных силах в Европе.
 
Американская сторона вообще отказалась обсуждать проекты международных Договора о европейской безопасности и Договора о предотвращении размещения оружия в космосе, а также возможность распространения российско-американского соглашения о предотвращении инцидентов в открытом море за внешним пределом территориальных вод и в воздушном пространстве над ним на подлодки сторон, находящиеся в подводном положении, в целях исключения в будущем возможности столкновений между ними под водой. Напомним: имевшие место столкновения были связаны в основном с присутствием американских ядерных субмарин в зонах боевой подготовки Северного флота РФ.
 
Известно по меньшей мере восемь принципов, которые характеризуют деструктивное отношение нынешней администрации США к столь широкой и ответственной теме. К ним относятся: сохранение стратегии нанесения первого ядерного удара; размытие функциональных границ между стратегическими наступательными и оборонительными системами вооружений; снижение порога применения всех видов ЯО; стремление к обеспечению военного превосходства над другими государствами; значительный перманентный рост военных расходов, включая постепенное повышение процента взноса в бюджет НАТО относительно национальных ВВП, с двух до четырех процентов; неправильная трактовка термина «стратегическая стабильность»; игнорирование принципа равной безопасности; избыточная концентрация значительных контингентов и средств передового базирования вблизи других государств.
 
США отказались принять российское предложение о моратории на размещение новых ракет средней дальности в тех районах, где они еще не развернуты. Высшее военно-политическое руководство НАТО сразу поддержало столь неконструктивный подход Вашингтона. Нынешняя администрация отказалась еще раз повторить формулировку Горбачева – Рейгана: «Ядерная война не может быть развязана, так как в ней не будет победителей».
 
Инструменты паритета
 
Вашингтон до сих пор не объявил своей позиции о возможности продления Договора СНВ-3 на пятилетний или иной срок. Даже в политически малозначимых комментариях по этому поводу американские эксперты не спешат упомянуть о готовности Пентагона обсуждать или сокращать перспективные американские гиперзвуковые планирующие боевые блоки, которые уже давно разрабатываются, а также вводить количественные ограничения на перспективную МБР, условно называемую «Минитмен-4» или сокращенно GLSD (межконтинентальная ракета стратегического сдерживания наземного базирования). Администрация Дональда Трампа игнорировала предложение Кремля провести встречу юристов для обмена мнениями относительно интерпретации отдельных положений Договора СНВ-3.
 
К сожалению, в РФ нашлись сторонники включения гиперзвукового планирующего боевого блока «Авангард», не имеющего аналогов в мире, а также еще не принятую на вооружение перспективную российскую МБР «Сармат» в повестку дня переговоров с американскими оппонентами еще до начала таких дискуссий и до изложения официальной точки зрения Белого дома по этой теме.
 
Гиперзвуковые планирующие ББ не входят в Договор СНВ-3 от 2010 года, поскольку вообще не упоминаются в нем.
 
По мнению видных американских экспертов – экс-замминистра обороны США по политическим вопросам Эрика Эдельмана и бывшего старшего директора по вопросам оборонной политики и контроля над вооружениями в Совете нацбезопасности Франклина Миллера, новые перспективные виды российских вооружений не ограничиваются Договором СНВ-3, хотя и представляют угрозу континентальной части США. Это же признает авторитетный в западном военно-политическом сообществе еженедельник «Джейнс дифенс уикли». МБР «Сармат» и иные новые российские МБР могут быть включены в Договор СНВ-3, если он будет продлен до 2026 года, или в Договор СНВ-4, но только после их принятия на вооружение, да и то исключительно на паритетной основе с американской стороной, а также при учете ядерных боезарядов Великобритании и Франции на стороне США.
 
До обнародования официальной позиции Белого дома самим Дональдом Трампом по поводу продления Договора СНВ-3 изложение российской позиции о распространении его положений на новейшие системы вооружений представляется преждевременным. Как только некие российские представители сделали в СМИ заявления о возможности распространения положений Пражского договора на «Авангард» и «Сармат», американские контрагенты моментально поспешили ограничить положениями этого договорного акта еще четыре вида перспективных вооружений России, о которых Владимир Путин говорил в Послании Федеральному собранию два года назад. То есть на «Кинжал», «Буревестник», «Посейдон» и «Пересвет». Иными словами, на все без исключения новаторские системы вооружений России, которые с чьей-то легкой руки получили определение «великолепная шестерка».
 
Примечательно, что Госдепартаменту, Минобороны и разведсообществу США предписано активно продвигать эту позицию в отношении нового российского перспективного оружия, добиваясь количественного ограничения, полного уничтожения или отказа от производства. Как часто это бывало, взамен американская сторона пока ничего не предложила.
 
При подходе к продлению или отказу от продления срока действия Договора СНВ-3 РФ обязана не забывать ранее сделанные заявления, в соответствии с которыми он может быть продлен только при условии его полного соблюдения американской стороной, вывода из Европы всего ТЯО и средств ПРО США, а также отказе от милитаризации космического пространства.
 
Возможность продления Договора СНВ-3 не означает, что мы снимаем с повестки дня проблему одностороннего нелегитимного выведения американской стороной из учета части ЯВ, объявленных переоборудованными, притом что у России нет возможности проверить и подтвердить, как это предусматривает Пражский договор, непригодность этих систем для применения ЯО. А это 1200 дополнительных стратегических ядерных боезарядов при максимальном потолке по ним для каждой стороны 1550 единиц.
 
В таком контексте будет правильным учитывать и негативный опыт уничтожения без всяких видимых причин советской ОТР «Ока», вообще не подпадавшей под ограничения ДРСМД, а также опрометчивый демонтаж Красноярской РЛС СПРН, когда все аналогичные ракеты и РЛС США остались нетронутыми и основательно модернизированы.
 
Словом, надо дождаться изложения Дональдом Трампом его подхода к возможному продлению Договора СНВ-3. Было бы интересно услышать, какие варианты он предложит относительно американского гиперзвукового оружия и ракетно-ядерных систем нового поколения, а также какую рецептуру пропишет для конструктивного решения других вопросов, сказывающихся на стратегической стабильности и глобальной безопасности.
 
С «Томагавком» за пазухой
 
Однажды Трамп публично заявил, что ни при каких обстоятельствах не будет обсуждать с Москвой противоракетную проблематику.
 
США бесконтрольно развивают глобальную систему ПРО, делая упор на ее развертывании у передовых рубежей РФ и КНР. При этом широко используются средства морского и наземного базирования. Хотя новые российские ударные системы преодоления уже названы и против них у американских визави нет средств противодействия, нельзя игнорировать эту угрозу. Исходящая от американской системы ПРО опасность кроется в значительном количестве ракет-перехватчиков наземного и морского базирования, а также в перспективе их размещения на космических орбитах.
 
Угроза, исходящая от американских операционных противоракетных комплексов – уже построенного и поставленного на боевое дежурство в Девеселу (Румыния) и завершаемого в Редзиково (Польша), заключается в том, что в их ПУ можно устанавливать не только оборонительные ракеты стратегического назначения для перехвата БР и КР, но и наступательные КР наземного базирования типа «Томагавк». Появилась информация и о возможности загрузки в них высокоточных гиперзвуковых видов вооружений, в спешном порядке разрабатываемых в Штатах. Для этого пригодны и ПУ системы ПРО ВМС США. К 2042 году они будут установлены приблизительно на 90 боевых кораблях, что составляет четверть общего состава.
 
Подобную ракетную рокировку в пусковых установках Мk-41 морского и наземного базирования можно выполнить без всяких инженерно-технических переделок. Не потребуется и замена ПО, о чем пытаются дезинформировать мир американские переговорщики. Дело в том, что компьютерные программы для запуска как оборонительных, так и наступательных видов вооружений подобных объектов составляются заранее и заблаговременно вводятся в блоки управления под каждый тип загружаемых боеприпасов.
 
Следует учесть два существенных обстоятельства. В принятой в 2019 году в США стратегии противоракетной обороны перед БИУС ПРО «Иджис» морского и наземного базирования ставится задача с помощью наступательных видов вооружений уничтожить МБР России еще до их запуска. Эти базы ПРО всегда будут находиться под полным американским контролем, от которого военно-политическое руководство Румынии и Польши в соответствии с подписанными с Вашингтоном соглашениями полностью отстранено.
 
Вполне естественно, что подобные объекты становятся целями российской противоракетной обороны и должны быть полностью ликвидированы. Позитивное или негативное решение этого вопроса Вашингтоном должно обязательно учитываться Москвой при выработке окончательной позиции о продлении Договора СНВ-3, в котором прямо говорится об органической взаимосвязи между стратегическими наступательными и оборонительными вооружениями.
 
Трибуна фальсификации
 
Парирование фальсификации системы контроля над вооружениями на российском экспертном уровне оставляет желать лучшего. Активно и своевременно реагируют на попытки искажения действительности на этом направлении Минобороны и МИД, некоторые СМИ.
 
Эта проблематика, к сожалению, фактически отсутствует в программах российских вузов либо предмет преподают люди, слабо им владеющие, а то и «эксперты», исповедующие западные представления о подходах к теме, сидящие на разного рода грантах и дотациях от соответствующих центров в странах НАТО. За редким исключением не издаются монографии по ракетно-ядерным стратегиям США, созданию их качественно новой ядерной триады, развитию глобальной системы ПРО и военной космической политике Вашингтона. На конференциях и «круглых столах» редко можно услышать доклады, в которых профессионально рассматривается военная политика США, анализируется концептуальное развитие западной военной мысли в ближайшей и отдаленной перспективе, проясняется, в чем же заключается модернизация вооружений США и НАТО.
 
Например, на представительной конференции, состоявшейся в 2019 году по актуальным проблемам современных международных отношений, не нашлось места для обсуждения проблематики контроля над вооружениями. Зато там работали около ста секций, на которых рассматривались вопросы, никак не относившиеся к актуальной мировой проблематике. На другой подобной конференции, также состоявшейся в прошлом году, такая актуальная проблема, как соблюдение ДРСМД и его нарушения Соединенными Штатами, была сведена одним из российских ведущих секции по международной безопасности к хорошо известным фактологическим составляющим договора, а также основным ограничительным параметрам. Но ни слова не было сказано о проблемах его выполнения американской стороной и о международных последствиях выхода из соглашения.
 
Прозападно настроенные российские «эксперты» занимают почетные места в научных советах вузов, в то время как специалистам, отстаивающим национальные интересы, там не всегда найдется подобающее место. Часто им вообще не дают слова на дискуссиях, где затрагиваются военно-политические проблемы, в том числе на ряде дискуссионных площадок, которые призваны отражать интересы России.
 
Зачастую не соблюдается географический принцип представительства выступающих с докладами на научно-практических форумах, куда приглашаются «эксперты» из стран, входящих в НАТО: трибуна для выступления чаще предоставляется им, а не российским представителям. Кроме того, многие российские участники подобных дискуссий стесняются реагировать на ошибки или искаженные взгляды западных участников.
 
У нас все еще существует порочная практика рецензирования публикаций национально ориентированных специалистов анонимными прозападными экспертами, отрицательное мнение которых учитывается редколлегиями, даже если вердикт носит предвзятый и искаженный характер. Такая практика внедряется тогда, когда подготовленные к печати публикации касаются реальной оценки политики США и других членов НАТО, их военных приготовлений. Цель таких методов – не допустить распространения объективной оценки военной политики западных государств.
 
Следует также пересмотреть практику направления в командировки за рубеж одних и тех же научных сотрудников, которые не защищают политику России в сфере контроля над вооружениями, а лишь с восхищением пересказывают суждения западных контрагентов и политологов, которые необоснованно критикуют нашу страну в военно-политической области или уводят дискуссию в сторону от реальной оценки ситуации и от выдвижения деловых предложений, направленных на выправление тупиковых ситуаций.
 
Целенаправленная фальсификация грандиозных событий, произошедших в 1941–1945 годах на полях сражений в Европе, ложная трактовка подходов к многоплановой проблеме контроля над вооружениями сегодня имеют глобальные последствия военно-стратегического значения и, несомненно, отличаются друг от друга. Но практика показывает, что обе формы фальсификации не существуют по отдельности. Они проводятся в жизнь одновременно и дополняют друг друга.
 
Неадекватное реагирование на них может иметь крайне нежелательные последствия. Гипертрофированный образ России как «врага всего мира» может быть усилен. Наращивание избыточных вооружений и активизация всех видов военной деятельности, в которую втянулись члены НАТО, может быть продолжено.
 
Напрашивается простой вывод: необходимо активно противодействовать фальсификации не только истории Великой Отечественной и в более широком контексте Второй мировой войны, но и современных подходов России к такой области, как контроль над вооружениями.
 
Это не потребует особых затрат. Достаточно лишь проявить готовность и решимость действовать на этом направлении более энергично, профессионально и адекватно. Это может инициироваться и сверху, и снизу по всей вертикали исполнительной и законодательной власти, на официальном и неофициальном уровнях.
 
 
 
 
 

Участие эксперта ЦВПИ в конференции, проведенной в Военной академии РВСН

23 апреля в Военной академии РВСН имени Петра Великого состоялась Международная научно-практическая конференция «Ракетные войска стратегического назначения в системе национальной безопасности Российской Федерации. Основные направления работы органов государственного и военного управления, ветеранских и молодежных организаций по укреплению боевой мощи РВСН».

Организаторами конференции выступили командование РВСН, Военная академия РВСН имени Петра Великого, Московская городская организация ветеранов РВСН.

Основная цель конференции состояла в повышении имиджа, роли и авторитета РВСН и выработка предложений по улучшению взаимодействия органов государственного и военного управления, ветеранских и молодежных организаций в укреплении боевой готовности названных войск на современном этапе их развития.

В работе конференции принял участие ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО – Университета, член-корреспондент РАЕН и РАВН В.П. Козин, который выступил с презентацией своей новой монографии «Эволюция стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений США и особенности их применения в XXI веке», а также принял участие в дискуссии о целесообразности продления срока действия Договора СНВ-3 после окончания срока его действия в 2021 году.

В монографии в комплексном ключе исследуются процессы перспективной эволюции стратегических и тактических ядерных вооружений США в XXI веке в тесной увязке с их современными ядерными и другими ключевым стратегиями (национальной безопасности, национальной и противоракетной обороны), принятыми в период деятельности президента Дональда Трампа. Значительный упор делается на выявлении особенностей модернизации американских СНВ и ТЯО, в том числе качественно новой стратегической ядерной триады, которая будет существовать практически все текущее столетие. В этой связи исторический очерк, связанной с избранной проблематикой, является минимальным. Рассматриваются проблемы, с которыми могут столкнуться будущие переговоры по сокращению СНВ и ТЯО на фоне усиления глобальной системы ПРО и сил общего назначения США. Излагаются особенности нарушения американской стороной Договора СНВ-3 и Договора о ликвидации РСМД. Анализируется различные предложения об ограничении СНВ и ТЯО, выдвигаемые зарубежными экспертами. Исследуется позиция Вашингтона о возможности построения безъядерного мира в глобальном масштабе.

Холодная война 2.0

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе "Код доступа" на телеканале "Звезда".

Об этой воинской награде США практически никто не слышал, и уж точно немногие ее видели - медаль за победу в одной из самых загадочных войн, которые когда-либо вела Америка. Ею не награждают в прямом смысле этого слова - ее продают. Официальное название - «Медаль за победу в "холодной" войне». Такая американская награда действительно существует.

Историки утверждают: «холодная» война началась с «Фултонской речи» британского премьер-министра Уинстона Черчилля. А датой ее окончания принято считать 26 декабря 1991 года, когда официально перестал существовать Советский Союз. Почему принято считать, что в «холодной» войне именно русские потерпели поражение? Кому сегодня выгодно культивировать в нас комплекс проигравшей стороны?

Эфир от 15 апреля 2021г.

Час икс: 5 признаков начала контрнаступления ВСУ, на которые нужно обратить внимание

О наступлении ВСУ ежедневно поступают противоречивые сведения. Однако есть объективные критерии, по которым можно будет понять, началось оно или нет.

17 мая Вашингтон отказался давать оценки относительно того, начал ли Киев контрнаступление. По словам политиков, на этот вопрос могут ответить только сами украинцы.

Началось ли контрнаступление ВСУ

Сказав это, помощник Байдена по нацбезопасности Джейк Салливан добавил, что украинский конфликт отличается динамизмом и многоуровневостью. И ответить на вопрос журналистов о контрнаступлении можно по-разному — в зависимости от того, под каким углом посмотреть.

Комментарий Салливана можно расценивать как дипломатический способ уйти от ответа, а можно как неуверенность в силах ВСУ. В то же время отдельные эксперты считают, что контрнаступление уже началось. Если абстрагироваться от политики и сосредоточиться на военных аспектах, на вопрос можно ответить более определённо.

Почему ВСУ не начинают контрнаступление

16 мая генерал-лейтенант армии США в отставке Марк Хертлинг в статье для The Washington Post заявил, что Киев не торопится с контрнаступлением из-за сложности операции и высоких рисков.

— Наступательные операции требуют большего количества сил, лучшей манёвренности, точного прицеливания и стрельбы, а также более длинных и надёжных линий снабжения, — отметил генерал-лейтенант армии США в отставке Марк Хертлинг.

Ранее сообщалось, что ВСУ не наступают из-за весенней распутицы и недостаточной укомплектованности по бронетехнике. Теперь заговорили о системном характере проблемы. При этом слухи о скором наступлении циркулируют в СМИ на протяжении нескольких недель.

— Меня смущает вот что. Никакой конфликт в мире — региональный или ещё какой-то побольше — не сопровождается заблаговременным анонсированием масштабного наступления своих ВС. Никогда. Наоборот: прячут, маскируют, создают ложные попытки начала, затухания наступления, концентрации сил и средств на нереальных направлениях, — отметил член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин.

Президент Украины Владимир Зеленский накануне визита в Великобританию отметил, что ему нужно "ещё немного времени". А специалист по России — профессор Марк Галеотти — в статье для The Times резюмировал, что Киев не готов к большому наступлению, но у него нет выбора.

Если контрнаступление не началось, но всё-таки состоится, как его не проморгать? Объективно говоря, активные боевые действия ведутся и сейчас, но происходящее нельзя назвать контрнаступлением.

Сколько у Украины танков и БТР

18 мая сотрудник оборонной программы Центра новой американской безопасности Эндрю Мэтрик в качестве главного признака контрнаступления назвал сосредоточение на передовой большого количества тяжёлой бронетехники.

По итогам "Рамштайна" министр обороны США Ллойд Остин заявил, что Киеву поставлено 230 танков. Некоторые эксперты считают, что цифра может быть завышена и в качестве танков могли учитывать и другую технику. Но где сейчас эти танки и БТР?

Тезис Мэтрика подтверждает и член-корреспондент Академии военных наук Российской Федерации Владимир Козин.

— Первое правило: у противника должно быть большое количество бронированной наступательной военной техники — танков, бронированных машин в виде БТР, БМП, БРДМ и т.д. Ничего этого пока не наблюдается, — отметил эксперт.

Сколько танков уничтожается в день на Украине

По словам Козина, если исходить из "негативных признаков", об отсутствии контрнаступления говорит количество вражеской бронетехники, уничтожаемой ВС РФ.

— Минобороны ежедневно излагает объективные данные, сколько тяжёлой техники было уничтожено за каждые прошедшие сутки. Видно, что за "расчётный период" их уничтожается не десятки, а единицы, — отметил эксперт.

После начала масштабной наступательной операции потери по технике среди ВСУ неизбежно возрастут.

По словам специалистов, войны XXI века подразумевают такую операцию не как массированный удар, а как наступление рассредоточенными силами на одном направлении либо как последовательное наступление на нескольких направлениях.

Цель таких действий — просачивание через линию фронта. Ярким признаком этого будут попытки установить контроль над определёнными зонами. Попытки одновременного удара на нескольких направлениях, в том числе отвлекающие манёвры требуют большого количества солдат, а также стягивания резервов.

— Чтобы наступление состоялось, должно быть сконцентрировано большое количество личного состава наступающей/контрнаступающей стороны (ВСУ). Сейчас мы этого не наблюдаем, — отметил член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин.

Сколько у ВСУ боеприпасов

По словам военного эксперта Владимира Козина, ещё один важный признак контрнаступления — отсутствие снарядного голода.

— Должно быть сосредоточено огромное количество боеприпасов — артиллерийских снарядов, мин, различных ракет для РСЗО. Но, судя по последней активности, они экономят. То есть у ВСУ нет такого количества, чтобы начать масштабную операцию. ЕС обещает поставить миллион единиц боеприпасов для арт-систем, РСЗО. Но когда это произойдёт, точно не известно. Их производство — это же не пельменный аппарат, — подчеркнул Козин.

По мнению эксперта, у США из пакета помощи (примерно в 40 млрд долларов) осталось всего 6 млрд долларов. При этом, по данным BBC, сейчас украинские военные расходуют больше 155-миллиметровых снарядов, чем США могут произвести за год.

— Американцы заявили (а могут и надуть), что у них осталось всего ничего из того большого пакета "военной помощи". Но этого объёма ассигнований, конечно, недостаточно. Думаю, что если они не выделят дополнительные финансовые средства, то при неполном финансировании комбинированной агрессии Украины и НАТО против России такая большая операция не может начаться завтра и послезавтра, — добавил Козин. Исходя из этого: дополнительное финансирование также можно будет считать признаком скорого контрнаступления.

Также, по словам Козина, важнейшим признаком любого контрнаступления является мобилизация военно-морских сил. Но у Украины нет флота, поскольку он уничтожен.

Если суммировать все эти факторы, широкомасштабным наступлением ВСУ пока не пахнет. Тем не менее, по словам Владимира Козина, при анализе массива фактов и факторов о планируемом наступлении противника нужно быть предельно осторожным.

Источник: Life.ru

 

 

Что и кто стоит за «Актом Цезаря»?

Одним из наиболее зримых проявлений лицемерия американской внешней политики является «Закон о защите гражданского населения Сирии», принятый Конгрессом США еще в 2016 году.

Согласно этому законодательному акту, Соединенные Штаты могут вводить санкции против любых лиц или организаций, «уличенных» в поддержке транспортного и энергетического секторов сирийской экономики, а также в сотрудничестве с Центральным банком Сирии.

Нижняя палата американского Конгресса приняла этот закон 15 июля 2016 года. Но за два месяца до этого эксперты ООН подготовили специальный доклад, в котором говорилось о том, что действующий с 2011 года пакет санкционных мер США и Евросоюза принес сирийскому народу неисчислимые страдания. На фоне вызванного санкциями резкого роста цен на топливо в разы сократилось сельскохозяйственное производство. Блокирование легального механизма международных транзакций обернулось процветанием теневых переводов, облегчивших спонсирование террористических группировок из-за рубежа. Эксперты Организации Объединенных Наций пришли к выводу, что западные санкции содействовали разрушению сирийской экономики и разорению населения в большей степени, чем идущие на территории страны военные действия.

Этот доклад стал достоянием гласности уже после того, как «Закон о защите гражданского населения Сирии» прошел голосование в Палате представителей США. Однако американский Сенат, который еще был должен рассмотреть названный законопроект на своих заседаниях, не обратил на оценки экспертов ООН никакого внимания.

Представляется, что это было сделано исключительно по политическим причинам.

Дело в том, что проект закона появился в тот момент, когда на фронтах войны с терроризмом в Сирии наметился заметный перелом. При поддержке ВКС России сирийские правительственные войска начали наносить группировкам псевдохалифата «Исламское государство» и «Джабхат Ан-Нусра» одно поражение за другим.

Ключевое значение имело освобождение Восточного Алеппо, начавшееся как раз летом 2016 года. Все то время, пока шла операция по ликвидации «Джабхат Ан-Нусры» и ее союзников, ежедневно обстреливавших западные кварталы второго по величине города Сирии, западные СМИ трубили о разрушении больниц и массовых жертвах среди мирного населения. Представители Госдепартамента США в комментариях для СМИ говорили, что им стоит «большого труда» удержать конгрессменов от введения санкций против России. Но сохранить Восточное Алеппо в руках террористов методами внешнеполитического шантажа не удалось.

Тогда санкционный «Закон о защите гражданского населения Сирии» одобрила и верхняя палата американского Конгресса. Замысел был очевиден – раз на фронтах антиправительственные силы во главе с террористами «Исламского государства» и «Аль-Каиды» терпят поражение, «падение режима» надо обеспечить удавкой на шее всего сирийского народа.

В Вашингтоне прекрасно были осведомлены о том, что руки поддерживаемой им вооруженной «оппозиции» в Сирии по локоть в крови мирного населения. Знали там и о том, что Дамаск никогда не прекращал выполнять государственные функции по всей территории страны, сохраняя социальные выплаты, поставки электроэнергии и отказываясь от транспортной блокады оккупированных незаконными вооруженными формированиями районов.

Поэтому санкции против наиболее чувствительных секторов экономики Сирии представляют собой удар в первую очередь по тому самому гражданскому населению, на «защиту» которого они якобы направлены. Сирийцев пытаются не мытьем, так катаньем заставить отказаться от поддержки президента Башара Асада, избранного законным путем.

Чтобы приглушить этот факт в глазах мировой общественности, в Соединенных Штатах на официальном уровне нарекли санкционный законопроект «Актом Цезаря».

«Цезарь» в данном контексте – это псевдоним, используемый ЦРУ для обозначения некоего сирийского правительственного служащего, якобы задокументировавшего свидетельства массовых казней сторонников оппозиции спецслужбами САР. Так называемые «фотографии Цезаря» были частично опубликованы в Интернете. На них представлены тела людей, якобы убитых в правительственных тюрьмах.

Надо отметить, что у ряда западных правозащитников эти материалы вызвали обоснованные сомнения в их достоверности.

Так, независимый американский журналист Рик Стерлинг обратил внимание на то, что на большинстве опубликованных фотографий запечатлены тела не «жертв режима», а сирийских военнослужащих, погибших от рук террористов и сторонников оппозиции. Кроме того, в тех случаях, когда на фотографиях сфотографированы женщины или дети, либо некие противники властей, нет никаких реальных указаний на обстоятельства их смерти. Боевики могли погибнуть и в бою с войсками, а причины гибели мирных жителей остаются на самом деле неизвестны.

Таким образом, речь идет об эмоциональной интерпретации, а не о доказанных фактах. Особо Рик Стерлинг обратил внимание на то, что юридическое заключение о «материалах Цезаря» как о доказательствах преступлений «режима Асада», было подготовлено британской фирмой «Картер Рак» на деньги Катара, известного своей открытой поддержкой не только сирийской оппозиции, но и «Джабхат Ан-Нусры».

Подобные публикации привели к тому, что ведущие западные правозащитные организации при подготовке докладов о «преступлениях сирийского режима против гражданского населения» побоялись ссылаться на «материалы Цезаря».

Впрочем, замену им они нашли не лучше.

Так, опубликованный в 2017 году доклад организации «Эмнести интернэшнл» о «13 тысячах казненных» в военной тюрьме Саедная основан на показаниях анонимных свидетелей и неких аудиозаписях, сделанных, якобы, на территории тюрьмы.

В результате американской репрессивной машине не остается ничего иного кроме как продолжать использовать практически откровенные фальсификации для оправдания своих преступных действий в отношении всего населения Сирии.

23 января 2019 года нижняя палата Конгресса США проголосовала за продление и усиление антисирийских санкций в рамках упомянутого «Акта Цезаря». В связи с наметившимся прогрессом в восстановлении в Сирии мирной жизни и торгово-экономических связей, «заботливые» конгрессмены решили добавить в санкционный пакет специфические рестрикции против тех, кто вздумает оказывать содействие какому бы то ни было строительству или реконструкции промышленных объектов на подконтрольной властям САР территории.

В Сенате голосование по скандальному акту пока не состоялось из-за временной приостановки  деятельности правительства США на фоне конфликта Дональда Трампа с законодателями от Демократической партии в Конгрессе. Но оно вполне может состояться после преодоления этого противостояния.

Автор: Владимир Козин

Что стоит за «безъядерной формулой» Трампа?

Президент США Дональд Трамп выступил с необычным для своих политических взглядов заявлением, в котором предложил России и Китаю избавиться от ядерного оружия

Необычным заявление президента США стало по той причине, что вброшенная им идея со столь глубоким военно-стратегическим содержанием, а также с кардинальными последствиями глобального характера никогда не излагалась им ранее.

В полном виде, без купюр, его заявление выглядит следующим образом. «Сегодня, -  поведал он в программе телекомпании «Фокс ньюс», - я видел, как президент Путин в России заявил, что рад возможности помогать нам с Ким Чен Ыном и Северной Кореей. Мы хотим избавиться от ядерного оружия - нам всем следует это сделать. И России, и Китаю», - уточнил Дональд Трамп. Вслед за этим в американских СМИ появилась информация о том, что его администрация якобы занимается подготовкой проекта некоего соглашения по контролю над ядерными вооружениями, которое подразумевало бы участие в нём Российской Федерации и КНР.

Что пишут, а что - в уме

Некоторые эксперты поспешили интерпретировать подобное высказывание Дональда Трампа в том духе, что он вроде бы действительно стремится к тому, чтобы ведущие мировые ядерные державы, в том числе и Соединённые Штаты, отказались от ядерного оружия, и что Вашингтон даже готов взять на себя роль инициатора движения к безъядерному миру.

Появилась и такая оценка, что Белый дом, мол, посылает недвусмысленный сигнал, чтобы три самые мощные ракетно-ядерные державы в мире, а именно КНР, Россия и США, приступили к выработке мер по решению этой непростой и многоплановой задачи. «Президент ясно дал понять: он считает, что система контроля над вооружениями должна включать Россию и Китай, должна включать всё оружие, все боеголовки, все ракеты», - цитирует телекомпания «Си-Эн-Эн» неназванного высокопоставленного представителя Белого дома. Одновременно отмечается, что 45-й президент США  рассчитывает заключить с Москвой и Пекином «грандиозную ядерную сделку», которая могла бы прийти на смену истекающему в феврале 2021 года сроку действия Договора о сокращении стратегических наступательных вооружений (Договор СНВ-3) и стать крупным геополитическим достижением его администрации.

Вместе с тем сделанное Дональдом Трампом столь громкое заявление показывает, что поднятый им вопрос не в полной мере разработан его военно-политическими советниками - как по форме, так и по содержанию.

Если говорить о форме изложенного предложения, то столь масштабные по своим последствиям идеи излагаются не через СМИ, а по дипломатическим каналам посредством нотной переписки между внешнеполитическими ведомствами заинтересованных сторон или через специальных представителей, направляемых в их столицы с личными посланиями глав государств или правительств. В таких посланиях обычно излагаются основные параметры будущих договоренностей, этапы их реализации и сроки их действия, ключевые параметры сокращений или ограничений.

По мнению газеты «Вашингтон пост» от 25 апреля, «обычно такие договоры требуют годы переговоров и дипломатических усилий, а это является вызовом для любой администрации, которая вышла из соглашений по контролю над вооружениями, но не разработала никаких новых». Справедливое замечание. Действительно, на подготовку ряда прежних договоров об ограничении или сокращении стратегических ядерных вооружений между Москвой и Вашингтоном часто уходило несколько лет сложных и интенсивных переговоров.

О чём не говорится, или намеренно умалчивается

Применительно к предложению американского президента о расширении круга участников сокращения ядерных вооружений вполне может быть задан простой вопрос: а почему в изложенной им идее её непосредственными исполнителями названы только три великие ядерные державы и КНДР, а не все девять стран-обладательниц ядерным потенциалом? Означает ли это, что ядерное оружие, скажем, уничтожат КНР, КНДР, Россия и США, но оно останется у Великобритании, Индии, Израиля, Пакистана и Франции? Ответа из Вашингтона на этот счёт нет.

С точки зрения субстантивной части новой инициативы Дональда Трампа, оно вступает в противоречие с собственной ядерной стратегией США, которая была санкционирована им в феврале прошлого года.

А она, как следует из её открытой части, предусматривает инициативное или ответное применение американского ракетно-ядерного оружия в 14 случаях, когда её некоторые положения предоставляют американским Стратегическим ядерным силам применять ядерное оружие в первом ядерном ударе на основе свободно трактуемых формулировок. Следует напомнить, что Пентагон недавно вновь повторил, что США не готовы взять на себя обязательство о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе для того, чтобы его союзники по НАТО не подумали, что Вашингтон не придёт к ним на помощь в случае каких-то чрезвычайных ситуаций.

Американские стратеги не собираются отказываться и от ключевой формулы ядерного сдерживания США, которая в кратком виде сводится к «безусловному наступательному ядерному сдерживанию», а также от её составного элемента -  «расширенного ядерного сдерживания», то есть от раскрытия «ядерного зонтика» над своими союзниками по трансатлантическому альянсу. Не откажутся в Пентагоне и от соглашений «о совместных ядерных миссиях» с ними. Американская сторона одновременно не проявляет никакой готовности к выводу своего тактического ядерного оружия из четырёх государств Европы и азиатской части Турции. Нет у неё никаких планов по прекращению полётов тяжёлой стратегической авиации, способной нести ядерное оружие, над Европой и Азиатско-Тихоокеанским регионом.

Известно, что Соединённые Штаты негативно относятся к 13 двусторонним и многосторонним договорам и соглашениям в сфере контроля над вооружениями. Недавно они дополнили этот список отказом ратифицировать международный договор о торговле оружием. Шесть договоров из этого реестра имеют прямое или косвенное отношение к ядерному оружию, а именно Договор СНВ-3, Договор о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, Договор о нераспространении ядерного оружия, «Иранская ядерная сделка», Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний и Соглашение по оружейному плутонию.

Предвыборный пиар на фоне стратегической ядерной триады

Но будет ли Вашингтон соблюдать названные договорные акты в соответствии с «безъядерной формулой» Дональда Трампа? Вряд ли. В частности, в начале августа текущего года американская сторона, как она публично объявила, окончательно выйдет из ДРСМД. Американские высокопоставленные представители из государственного департамента также недавно признали, что их «не интересует» продление Договора СНВ-3 на последующие пять лет после 2021 года.

Также известно, что американская сторона готова создать и уже давно приступила к созданию принципиально новой стратегической ядерной триады, на которую уже запланировано выделить от 1,2 трлн (в постоянных ценах) до 1,7 трлн долларов (с учётом инфляции). И эта триада просуществует до 2095 года. Как минимум.

Так как же изложенное предложение американского президента сочетается с программой создания такой стратегической ядерной триады? Разве Белый дом пойдёт на её блокирование, если первый образец её компонента в виде тяжёлого стратегического бомбардировщика может появиться уже в 2025 году? Маловероятно, что пойдёт. А точнее - совсем невероятно, что он откажется от столь амбициозной долговременной ядерной программы.

Тогда с какой целью и почему вдруг сейчас всплыла «безъядерная формула» президента Дональда Трампа?

Не пытается ли он просто пропиариться для обеспечения своей победы на очередных президентских выборах? То есть повторить пустое обещание своего предшественника Барака Обамы, который в апреле 2009 года в Праге заявил о желании построить безъядерный мир. Но впоследствии оговорился, что подобная цель не может быть достигнута при его жизни.

Но есть и другие возможные варианты ответов. Например, сбить с толку мировое общественное мнение, закамуфлировав масштабные наращивания ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных вооружений США и НАТО в ближайшие годы. Или вовлечь в беспредметные дискуссии «о ядерном разоружении» не только Россию, но и КНР.

Или обеспечить информационное прикрытие негативных последствий для Вашингтона в результате его неизбежного выхода из ДРСМД, а впоследствии и из Договора СНВ-3? Или решить все эти задачи вместе?

Российская сторона готова к переговорам с Соединёнными Штатами по вопросам ядерного вооружения и проанализирует конкретные предложения Вашингтона, когда и если они поступят в Москву, заявил РИА «Новости» заместитель главы российского внешнеполитического ведомства Сергей Рябков, в частности, курирующий проблематику контроля над вооружениями.

Пока же Вашингтон не раскрыл детали и особенности своего «плана» выхода на «глобальный ядерный нуль». А раскроет ли, коль скоро у него на этом пути так много разного рода мощных стратегических препятствий, созданных им самим? Если сам он стремится доминировать в мире со своим ядерным оружием.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: Еженедельник “Звезда”

Что хотят США от перспективных вооружений России?

В начале февраля принял участие в дистанционном брифинге на тему «Вызовы и перспективы будущего американо-российского контроля над ядерными вооружениями».  Его провела американская НКО «Ассоциация по контролю над вооружениями» (АКНВ), проявляющая негативное отношение к развитию ракетно-ядерных вооружений Россией и КНР, а также поддерживающая официальную линию Вашингтона на продолжение совместной агрессии Украины и НАТО против нашего государства.

На мероприятии выступили представители Совета национальной безопасности США, АКНВ, Брукингского института, Федерации американских ученых, Венского центра по разоружению и нераспространению, а также МИД Финляндии.

Главные обвинения

Американские участники обвинили российскую сторону в нарушении Договора СНВ-3 посредством блокирования американских инспекций российских ядерных объектов, предусмотренных этим договорным актом. Такой подход обосновывался тем, что СНВ России, мол, увеличили количество стратегических ядерных боезарядов на своих носителях сверх лимитов, установленных названным договором, что, дескать, нуждается в срочной проверке «на местах». С позицией Вашингтона, которые обвинили Россию в нарушении Договора СНВ-3, полностью солидаризовался финский представитель.

Одновременно было подвергнуто критике наше решение о переносе в ноябре прошлого года заседания Совместной консультативной комиссии сторон, созданной по условиям названного договора, на неопределенный срок.

Были затронуты некоторые принципы Договора СНВ-4. Американские представители выражали пожелание, чтобы в Соединенные Штаты и Россия распространили на него формулу сокращения СНВ одновременно на оперативно развернутые и оперативно неразвернутые ядерные боезаряды, то есть внедрили бы более широкий охват сокращений, который предусматривает только снижение уровня оперативно развернутых ядерных боезарядов сторон стратегического назначения. Предлагалось также, чтобы сокращения по будущему Договору СНВ-4 распространялись на стратегические и «нестратегические» ядерные вооружения, а обновленные инспекции – на централизованные склады хранения СНВ на национальных территориях, но без учета весьма важного географического фактора – перманентного размещения ТЯО и комбинированной системы ПРО США в Европе.

Трюки со смыслом

Трюк с терминологией «нестратегические ядерные вооружения» был придуман американской стороной для того, чтобы исключить из подсчета в составе СНВ американские авиационные ядерные боезаряды тактического назначения в случае их погрузки на стратегические тяжелые бомбардировщики (ТБ) США, коль скоро такие ядерные боезаряды являются, по их мнению, «нестратегическими». Но дело в том, что они реально будут являться «стратегическими» при условии их погрузки на ТБ с учетом единственного критерия, который используется двумя сторонами при определении ядерных СНВ. К ним относятся все ядерные боезаряды, то есть,  стратегические и тактические, если они могут быть доставлены на межконтинентальные расстояния – от 5500 км и дальше.

Обосновывая необходимость подготовки нового двустороннего Договора СНВ-4 после 5 февраля 2026 года, когда истечет срок действия пролонгированного Договора СНВ-3, один американский исследователь попытался намекнуть, что в этом случае СЯС США будут располагать ядерными боезарядами СНВ на 881 единицу больше, чем Россия.

Необходимо также учитывать, что АКНВ уже пыталась апробировать через свои публикации возможность сокращения всех семи перспективных видов российских вооружений, что с точки зрения интересов национальной безопасности является для Российской Федерации полностью неприемлемым.

Реальные цели Вашингтона

Из разъяснений докладчиков можно сделать вывод, что при продолжении наших переговоров с Вашингтоном по контролю над ядерными вооружениями американская сторона будет проводить линию на выборочный подход к решению этой большой по объему проблемы, то есть соглашаясь на сокращения одних видов вооружений у нас, она будет пытаться оставлять у себя без ограничений их другие виды.

Скорее всего, в названном будущем переговорном процессе американцы будут также вести дело к игнорированию их средств передового базирования различного назначения, наращиваемых у рубежей России, которые также представляют значительную угрозу для нашей национальной безопасности. То есть, размещения американских ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и тяжелых неядерных видов вооружений.

Предупреждение, основанное на опыте

В латинском есть слово «caveat», что, среди прочего. означает «предупреждение, основанное на опыте» или просто «предостережение». Что же показывает такой опыт?

Как известно, прежде названные два фактора, то есть селективный подход к контролю над вооружениями и игнорирование иностранных вооруженных средств передового базирования, не всегда учитывались советской и российской сторонами в переговорном процессе с США по контролю над вооружениями. А их обязательно надо учитывать.

Следует также отклонять все попытки американской стороны и ее союзников требовать о нас согласия на проведение инспекций США в рамках Договора СНВ-3 с целью «осмотра» перспективных видов вооружений России, а также для фиксирования выхода российских мобильных СНВ на боевое патрулирование из мест их дислокации. Дело в том, что перспективные российские вооружения, не являющиеся МБР, БРПЛ или ТБ, не подпадают под действие Договора СНВ-3. Кроме того, такие перспективные вооружения России вообще не упоминаются в тексте этого договора.

Нынешняя напряженная, а временами крайне опасная военно-политическая обстановка в мире, инициированная США и НАТО, не позволяет оставлять без внимания и без адекватного учета эти факторы, а также иные существенные обстоятельства, о которых шла речь в комментарии автора на тему: «США требуют инспекций по Договору СНВ-3. Нет оснований».

Именно такая обстановка с обозначенными особенностями, а также перманентно расширяющаяся агрессия Украины и НАТО против России и сохранение доктрины нанесения первого упреждающего и превентивного ядерного удара по нашей стране со стороны США, Великобритании и Франции требуют перехода Российской Федерации на аналогичную военно-стратегическую установку. Опубликованное на днях американским журналистом Сеймуром Хершем расследование истории и обстоятельств организации подрыва «Северных потоков», к которым причастна нынешняя американская администрация, напоминает о том, что к Соединенным Штатам следует всегда и без иллюзий относиться только как к врагу «номер один». От них можно ждать любой пакости.

Причем, самой для нас неприятной и стратегически опасной.

Автор: В.П. Козин - член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России                                           

 

 

 

Швеция и Финляндия: перспективные последствия вступления в НАТО

С 16 по 20 мая в ходе встречи в Хельсинки лидеры Финляндии и Швеции намерены подать заявки на вступление в НАТО. Как обещал нынешний генеральный секретарь альянса Йенс Столтенберг, их примут в него в качестве полноправных членов довольно быстро и без особых формальностей. Вполне возможно, что это произойдет на саммите блока, который состоится в июне этого года в Мадриде.

Навязчивой идея военно-политического руководства этих стран отказаться от многолетнего нейтрального статуса, а затем войти в состав этого самого крупного и наиболее опасного военного союза, возникла не в результате проведения специальной военной операции России на территории Украины. Подобная идея уже многие годы бродила в наиболее радикальной и милитаристски настроенной части шведского и финского обществе, но негативное отношение к ее реализации подавляющего большинства граждан двух названных государств, как  показывали проводимые в них опросы общественного мнения, не позволяли Стокгольму и Хельсинки принять решение о пополнении рядов альянса «трансатлантической солидарности».

Швеция и Финляндия уже многие годы поддерживали самые тесные военные связи с альянсом. С ним происходил их тесный военно-делегационный обмен и военно-техническое сотрудничество. В их вооруженных силах реализовывались организационно-управленческие и оперативно-боевые наставления и стандарты НАТО. Они принимали участия в военных учениях блока.

Швеция делится со странами блока данными космической и наземной разведки из своего центра «Эсрейндж» который расположен недалеко от города Кируна на севере страны. Она уже поставляет противотанковые гранатометы АТ-4 агрессивному киевскому режиму, производимому в кооперации с американскими производителями оружия.

Финляндия предоставляет свою территорию под испытание современных натовских ударных и разведывательных дронов. Финское руководство заказало в США 64 истребителя-бомбардировщика F-35A, сертифицированного под доставку новейшего американского тактического ядерного оружия в виде корректируемых авиабомб нового поколения.

 Ведущие западные эксперты считают, что основной причиной активизации усилий по интеграции Швеции и Финляндии в НАТО также является беспрецедентное давление со стороны Вашингтона. По словам доцента Хельсинского университета Йохана Бэкмана, именно США и другие ведущие страны НАТО втягивают Стокгольм и Хельсинки в Североатлантический альянс.

В финских печатных и электронных средствах массовой информации намеренно культивируется проукраинский военный психоз, направленный на формирование среди населения агрессивной русофобии. 26 апреля этого года депутат от социал-демократической партии Финляндии Эркки Туомиоя заявил, что национальные СМИ постоянно нагнетают страх неизбежного вторжения России. Несмотря на крайне низкий интерес финнов как к конфликту, так и к истории Украины в целом, улицы городов и социальные сети переполнены национальной украинской символикой.

Руководство Финляндии из соображений «европейской солидарности» выступает в поддержку поставок Евросоюзом вооружений и военной техники Украине.

Финская государственная телерадиокомпания YLE распространила данные опроса без указания принадлежности социальных групп, места их проведения и охвата исследуемой аудитории, согласно которого членство страны в НАТО, якобы, поддерживают до 80 процентов населения. 20 марта президент Финляндии Саули Ниинисте заявил, что референдум по вступлению страны в альянс, мол, не нужен, так как социологические опросы показывают, что большинство финнов поддерживают эту идею.

При этом инициатива Финляндии идет вразрез ранее взятым Хельсинки на себя обязательствам по ряду международных договоров.

В том числе, по Аландской конвенции 1921 года, закрепляющей демилитаризованный статус Аландских островов, Парижского мирного договора 1947 года, ограничивающего состав и численность вооруженных сил Финляндии, договора «Об основах отношений между Российской Федерацией и Финляндией» 1992 года, определяющего обязательства о непредоставлении своей территории третьим странам для нападения. Вступление Финляндии в НАТО приведет к пересмотру российско-финляндского договора об аренде до 2063 года Сайменского канала, являющегося единственной водной артерией, существующей между сетью Сайменских озер и Финским заливом.

В погоне за призрачными гарантиями безопасности Стокгольм и Хельсинки своими руками рушат выстроенную после Второй мировой войны архитектуру европейской безопасности, эффективность которой подтверждена десятилетиями мирных и добрососедских отношений Швецией и Финляндии с Российской Федерацией. Вхождение этих двух североевропейских государств в трансатлантический военный союз увеличит русофобские настроения.

Ожидаемое принятие Швеции и Финляндии в НАТО, несомненно, поставит их перед необходимостью участия в опасных военных операциях вооруженных сил альянса далеко за их пределами, а также приведет к значительному повышению их военного бюджета.

Обе названные страны также резко понизят свой суверенитет и военно-политическую самостоятельность, а также видоизменят свою внешнюю политику.

Автор: В.П. Козин, член-корреспондент РАВН

 

Шесть непрофессиональных слайдов британского Посольства

 
Шесть слайдов британского Посольства в Москве  под заголовком «Инцидент в Солсбери», обнародованные 22 марта и впоследствии размещенные на Интернет-сайте газеты «Коммерсант», уже получили общую оценку в российских государственных структурах и некоммерческих организациях как подготовленные на низком профессиональном уровне, продолжают удивлять не только специалистов по химии, но и многих других экспертов в России и за рубежом. 
 
Необходимо отметить, что все слайды (из которых один – титульный) имеют сугубо официальный характер, так как наверху каждого из них имеется приписка «Правительство Ее Величества».
 
На слайде номер 1, который содержит хронику событий после обнаружения отца и дочери Скрипаль в бессознательном состоянии 4 марта около торгового центра в Солсбери, обращает на себя внимание непростительная медлительность британских властей, которые только 8 марта оповестили технический секретариат Организации по запрещению химического оружия о случившемся, только 14 марта премьер-министр Тезеза Мэй обратилась с письмом в эту международную структуру и только 19 марта группа ее специалистов прибыла в Великобританию. Все перечисленные меры должны были быть приняты гораздо раньше – как говорят: «по горячим следам». 
 
Возникает и другой логичный вопрос: почему основная часть следов «нервно-паралитического вещества» была обнаружена на дверной ручке дома Сергея Скрипаля только в конце марта, хотя по всем правилам  дознания это должно было быть выявлено практически сразу после обнаружения бессознательными отца и дочери Скрипалей 4 марта?   
 
На слайде номер 3 утверждается, что кроме семьи Скрипалей и британского детектива сержанта Ника Бейли значительное количество людей подверглись воздействию «нервно-паралитического вещества»:   131  человек имели «потенциальный контакт» с этим веществом, в том числе 51 человек обратился в поликлинику. Известно, что, слава Богу, никто из них не впал в кому и не скончался. Поправился сержант Ника Бейли, стало гораздо лучше и дочери Скрипаля – Юлии. Возникает вопрос: если причиной резкого ухудшения здоровья Скрипалей 4 марта стало некое «нервно-паралитическое вещество» в виде «А-234», то почему оно не подействовало таким же образом на столь большое количество людей, которые имели с ним «потенциальный контакт»?  Почему британские специалисты запутались «в  трех соснах», сначала назвав причиной сильного отравления  Скрипалей применение против них их то «фентанила», то некого «Новичка», который, как утверждается в западных СМИ,  давно производился в Узбекистане, то, наконец, «А-234»? 
 
Слайд номер 4 содержит фактологическую информацию о «злостных деяниях» России за последние годы, которые не имеют никакого отношения к «инциденту в Солсбери» и вообще являются ложными, например, уничтожение малайзийского авиалайнера рейса МН-17 в 2014 году, поскольку лайнер был сбит Вооруженными силами Украины (см.: «Малазийский «Боинг» был сбит в украинском воздушном пространстве украинским «Буком». Размещено на сайте ЦВПИ: часть 1 и часть 2 ). 
 
Явно необоснованным утверждением является обвинение России британской стороной в «попытке государственного переворота в Черногории» в 2016 году, поскольку Москва не имела никакого отношения к такой «попытке», если она и была. До сих пор недоказанными являются и другие обвинения в адрес российской стороны, в том числе в причастности к смерти Александра Литвиненко в Великобритании, а также «вмешательство России» в президентские выборы в США в 2016 году и другие эпизоды, которые в презентации просто свалены в одну кучу вместе с фактом трагедии семьи Скрипалей. А какое отношение к этому «делу» имеет мирное и на основе Устава ООН воссоединение Крыма с Россией, то есть со своей исторической, экономической, культурной, этнической и духовной Родиной в 2014 году? На слайде под номером 4 вспомнили и об этом. 
 
Примечательно, что на слайдах британского Посольства в Москве уже нет фразы «весьма вероятно», что к «инциденту в Солсбери» причастна Россия, как на этом неоднократно настаивала Тереза Мэй. Видимо, в Лондоне поняли, что в британских и иных судах бремя доказательства вины кого-то в совершении чего-то лежит именно на истце, а не на ответчике, а фраза «весьма вероятно» («highly likely»), употребленная Терезой Мэй, или еще один перл в виде «подавляюще вероятно» («overwhelmingly likely») , озвученный главой британской дипломатии Борисом Джонсоном, никак не могут быть использованы как доказательство чьей-то вины. 
 
Но, увы, Лондон так и доказал причастности России к «инциденту в Солсбери» путем распространения горстки представленных слайдов. Зато официально под грифом «Правительство Ее Величества» он показал свою полную некомпетентность и непрофессионализм, а также подтвердил факт собственных неоправданных проволочек в расследовании этого громкого дела.
 
Автор: В.П. Козин – ведущий эксперт  ЦВПИ

Эксперт МГИМО выступил на Белградском форуме

23 марта ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ, член-корреспондент РАЕН и РАВН В.П. Козин выступил с докладом по проблематике контроля над вооружениями на Белградском форуме, посвященном трагической годовщине бомбардировок вооруженными силами НАТО территории Сербии (ФРЮ) в 1999 году. По его мнению, эти массированные бомбардировки, которые унесли жизни и причинили тяжелые ранения многим тысячам человек, совпали с двумя событиями, произошедшими в тот же самый год: с началом развертывания системы ПРО США в Европе и провалом ратификации ДВЗЯИ в американском Сенате. Назвав эти явления звеньями одной и той же цепи, эксперт ЦВПИ заявил, что они стали следствием стабильной милитаристской линии США и трансатлантического союза, проводимой уже многие десятилетия. В.П. Козин обратил внимание на нынешнее негативное отношение Вашингтона к 12 международным договорам в сфере контроля на вооружениями, в частности, на его многочисленные нарушения ДРСМД и Договора СНВ-3, а также указал на 14 оснований для применения ядерного оружия Соединенными Штатами в соответствии с их новой ядерной стратегией.

Эксперт ЦВПИ прочитал двухчасовую лекцию профессорско-преподавательскому составу Факультета политических наук Белградского университета, в которой обратил особое внимание на особенности усиления военных приготовлений НАТО на Балканах, в Центральной и Восточной Европе, в зоне Балтийского и Черного морей.

Выступивший на форуме министр обороны Сербии Александр Вулин заявил, что Сербия никогда не вступит в НАТО и никогда не забудет ее агрессии против сербского народа. В принятой Белградской декларации участники встречи потребовали от НАТО полной компенсации ущерба, причиненного Сербии в ходе агрессии 1999 года в размере 100 млрд. долларов. Было также зафиксировано требование о возвращении в состав Сербии незаконно отторгнутого от нее края Косово и Метохия.

В работе форума приняли участие около 200 представителей из 50 различных стран мира, в том числе делегация Российской Федерации, в которую вошли депутаты Государственной Думы, ученые ведущих ВУЗов и члены ряда некоммерческих общественных организаций.

Эксперт рассказал, как работают крылатые ракеты

Член-корреспондент Академии военных наук РФ Владимир Козин рассказал, как работают крылатые ракеты. По его словам, такой снаряд летит не по баллистической траектории, а зигзагообразно, что позволяет более точно наносить удары.

Источник: Москва 24.

 

 

Эксперт: заявления НАТО о том, что альянс является оборонительным союзом, не соответствуют действительности

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в эфире китайского государственного телеканала CGTN.

 

Эра бесконечных обещаний. За океаном вновь заговорили об отказе от «чужих войн».

Соединённые Штаты прекращают использовать военную силу в своей внешней политике и отказываются от роли мирового полицейского. Об этом заявил президент США Дональд Трамп в ходе недавнего выступления перед выпускниками военной академии в Вест-Пойнте. Что за этими словами стоит и что они означают для мировой политики? Эти и другие вопросы стали темой беседы нашего обозревателя с ведущим экспертом Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России членом-корреспондентом Академии военных наук РФ Владимиром Козиным.
 
– Владимир Петрович, американский президент на днях заявил, что вооружённые силы США больше не будут «восстанавливать справедливость» в далёких странах и «решать чужие конфликты». Что вы скажете по этому поводу?
 
– Прежде всего хочу отметить, что это заявление прозвучало для многих неожиданно на фоне продолжающихся в США массовых протестов, вызванных гибелью афроамериканца, и раздающихся из Белого дома угроз использовать армию для стабилизации ситуации. В этих условиях Трамп, выступая перед выпускниками одной из самых известных военных академий США, вдруг заговорил о роли вооружённых сил в проведении внешней политики США.
По его словам, Соединённые Штаты возвращаются к основополагающим принципам, согласно которым задача американского солдата заключается в проведении оборонительных операций и решительной защите своей страны от «внешних врагов». Для этого нынешняя администрация приступила к «колоссальной перестройке американских вооружённых сил», инвестировав в неё более двух триллионов долларов. В результате сейчас идёт строительство сотен новых кораблей, бомбардировщиков, реактивных истребителей, танков, военных спутников и гиперзвуковых ракет.
 
При этом американский президент объявил о завершении Соединёнными Штатами «эры бесконечных войн». «На её место приходит новый, ясный взгляд на защиту жизненно важных интересов Америки. В обязанности американских войск не входит разрешение древних конфликтов в далёких странах, о которых многие люди даже не слышали. Мы не полицейские мира сего», – так дословно прозвучало заявление Дональда Трампа.
 
Как воспринимать эти слова? По сути, они могли бы означать крутой поворот во внешней политике США, одну из основ которой составляет применение военной силы для продвижения американских интересов по планете. Ни для кого не секрет, что вся история существования США связана с бесконечными войнами, которые они вели с окружающим миром в различных регионах планеты. Напомню, что с момента основания государства в 1776 году по 2019 год США пребывали в состоянии войны на протяжении почти 220 лет, вмешивались вооружённым путём во внутренние дела различных государств мира 568 раз. А после 1945 года, когда США превратились в первую державу, в Вашингтоне решили взять на себя функцию мирового жандарма.
 
Сегодня, как признал в июле 2018-го тогдашний председатель объединённого комитета начальников штабов вооружённых сил США генерал Джозеф Данфорд, более 300 тысяч американских военнослужащих находятся в 177 странах. По всему миру разбросаны около 800 американских военных баз и пунктов базирования, которые используются для обеспечения действий вооружённых сил США. И они не просто там пребывают, а оказывают в той или иной степени влияние на ситуацию как в самой стране их присутствия, так и в конкретном регионе в целом, направляя её развитие с точки зрения обеспечения американских интересов.
Тем не менее реакция мирового сообщества на слова Трампа о том, что США завершают «эру бесконечных войн», в целом была более чем сдержанной. А если быть точнее, их практически никто не воспринял всерьёз.
 
– Почему? Разве они не направлены на выстраивание международных отношений в духе взаимопонимания и на снижение уровня военного противостояния?
 
– Были бы направлены, если бы эти слова дополнялись соответствующими делами во внешней политике США, подкреплялись сроками и масштабами их реализации. Скажем, если были бы внесены принципиальные изменения в две действующие ключевые военно-стратегические установки страны, которые были приняты уже нынешней американской администрацией. А именно: в стратегию национальной безопасности 2017 года и в стратегию национальной обороны 2018 года. Но пока никаких признаков готовящихся изменений не прослеживается.
Отмечу также, что такие заявления звучат из уст нынешнего хозяина Белого дома весьма часто. В ходе своей первой предвыборной кампании он специально акцентировал внимание избирателей на необходимости сокращения американского военного присутствия за рубежом и перехода к решению внутренних проблем страны. Да и в инаугурационном выступлении он, хоть и не совсем явно, намекнул на сокращение американского присутствия за рубежом.
Затем уже в качестве хозяина Белого дома неоднократно высказывался на эту тему. Например, в прошлом году, говоря о ситуации в Сирии, Трамп сказал, что для США пришло время «выйти из бесконечных войн» и вернуть домой своих солдат. Однако на деле эти слова так и остались словами.
 
– А как же Афганистан, Ирак, оттуда США выводят свои войска…
 
– Действительно, в этих странах начался процесс снижения американского военного присутствия. Но думается, воинские контингенты США покидают Афганистан и Ирак вовсе не потому, чтобы показать, что президент держит своё обещание, сделанное четыре года назад. Просто американская дипломатия зашла в тупик и не знает, что делать дальше в этих странах.
Взять тот же Афганистан, где американские вооружённые силы ведут самую длительную войну в своей истории. За почти два десятилетия на ней погибли тысячи военнослужащих западных стран. Американские потери там оцениваются более чем в 2400 человек погибшими и 20 тысяч человек ранеными и покалеченными. При этом не учитываются потери частных военных компаний, широко задействованных на афганской земле. Военное присутствие США в Афганистане обошлось, по официальным данным, в 778 миллиардов долларов. Независимые эксперты называют ещё большие цифры – до двух триллионов долларов. Причём поставленные перед Пентагоном задачи в этой стране так и не были достигнуты.
Американцы вынуждены уходить из Афганистана и Ирака. Правда, при этом они стремятся сохранить за собой пару-другую военных баз, чтобы в случае чего вновь перебросить туда свои войска.
 
– Нынешняя администрация не склонна и сокращать военные расходы…
 
– Это как раз ещё одно свидетельство тому, что её практические дела прямо противоречат её же публичным заявлениям. За примером не надо ходить далеко. Именно в эти дни, когда произносились слова об окончании «эры бесконечных войн», в конгрессе обсуждается проект оборонного бюджета с общими расходами 740 миллиардов долларов на следующий финансовый год, который начинается 1 октября 2020 года. Его уже рассмотрел и утвердил 11 июня комитет по делам вооружённых сил сената.
 
– Но всё же, чем продиктовано заявление Трампа?
 
– Я думаю, что причин тому несколько. Первая из них – очередная предвыборная кампания выходит на финишную прямую, а дела у Республиканской партии складываются не совсем блестяще. 45-й президент уже заговорил о возможном своём поражении и поиске нового рода занятий. Но пока стремится любым способом переломить ситуацию в свою пользу. И обещание покончить с «эрой бесконечных войн», очевидно, видится им одним из таких средств.
Другая причина, на мой взгляд, кроется в желании Трампа улучшить отношения с военным командованием, которые разладились из-за его готовности использовать армию на улицах американских городов. Однако вряд ли слова о свёртывании военного присутствия за рубежом будут созвучны настроениям в Пентагоне. Мы уже видели, что из Сирии американцы так и не ушли, хотя такая установка и давалась Белым домом…
Так или иначе происходящие в самих Соединённых Штатах процессы подталкивают их правящие круги к тому, чтобы приоритетно заняться реальным решением собственных внутренних проблем.
 
 
Владимир КУЗАРЬ, «Красная звезда»
 
Постоянная ссылка: http://eurasian-defence.ru/node/47024

ЯДЕРНЫЙ ТРОЯНСКИЙ КОНЬ США И НАТО В ЕВРОПЕ. «НЕ ВЕРЬТЕ ДАНАЙЦАМ, ДАРЫ ПРИНОСЯЩИМ»

Пресс-секретарь Пентагона Джон Кирби на днях заявил, что Соединенные Штаты отменяют планировавшийся испытательный пуск межконтинентальной баллистической ракеты  «Минитмен -3», чтобы показать, что они не повышают боеготовность своих ядерных сил.
 
В обычной ситуации, если бы не было третьей по счету масштабной агрессии Украины против Донбасса, ведущейся с 2014 года, а российско-американские отношения развивались бы в конструктивном ключе, то этот шаг Вашингтона мог бы рассматриваться вполне позитивно.  
Но с учетом новых обстоятельств, сложившихся в результате варварской агрессии Киева против ДНР и ЛНР  в  январе-феврале этого года, такой шаг Пентагона, о котором идет речь, можно расценивать как сознательную дезинформацию, направленную на то, чтобы нас ввести в заблуждение и успокоить. Но если это так, то, наоборот, надо проявить наивысшую степень бдительности. 
 
Что на деле означает отмена запланированного испытания?  Практически ничего. Дело в том, что такие испытания могут возобновится в любой момент. У этой «монеты» есть и другая сторона. Между тем, боеготовность МБР США наземного базирования составляет 99 процентов. Боеготовность американских подводных ракетоносцев с ядерным ракетами стратегического назначения, находящихся на боевом дежурстве в Мировом океане – 100 процентов. Боеготовность их стратегической тяжелой авиации, заблаговременно размещенной на территории  Великобритании и Чехии еще до начала нынешней масштабной агрессии Киева, также составляет 100 процентов. Естественно, что цветы и пряники они не везут.
 
С другой стороны, Россия пока не повысила степень боевой готовности своих ядерных сил. На встрече с министром обороны Сергеем Шойгу и начальником Генштаба Вооруженных сил России – первым заместителем министра обороны Валерием Герасимовым президент и верховный главнокомандующий Российской Федерации Владимир Путин 27 февраля отдал приказ о переводе сил сдерживания российских Вооруженных Сил «в особый режим боевого дежурства». Этот приказ затрагивает сразу несколько родов войск, способных решать широкий круг оборонительно-наступательных задач, а не только ядерные силы страны. 
 
Несмотря на столь четкую формулировку, на Западе это решение было воспринято именно как «приведение ядерных сил России в состояние повышенной боеготовности». Эту «утку» подхватили некоторые антиядерные движения за рубежом, а также, к сожалению, один органов российских СМИ, работающий на английском языке. Вслед за этими оговорками схожая формулировка была вмонтирована в проект резолюции специальной сессии Генассамблеи ООН по Украине, одобренной 2 марта.  
Но введение особого режима боевого дежурства российских сил сдерживания и повышение степени боеготовности ядерных сил России – это принципиально разные вещи.
К сожалению, вероятность развязывания ядерного конфликта со стороны США и НАТО, где представлены ядерные союзники Вашингтона – Великобритания и Франция сильно возросла. Такая вероятность реальна, а не преувеличена. 
Особенно если принять во внимание продолжение стартовавшей в 2004 году операции ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» в воздушном пространстве государств Балтии боевыми самолетами альянса, то есть Эстония, Латвии, Литвы и Польши, а также аналогичной операции, проводимой Румынией в небе над Балканами. 
 
В ходе этих круглосуточных и круглогодичных операций задействованы самолеты двойного назначения НАТО, способные нести не только обычные авиабомбы, но и высокоточные ядерные авиабомбы нового поколения. В мае текущего года на европейском континенте появится новая американская корректируемая ядерная авиабомба В 61-12. 
 
С момента начала российской специальной военной операции по освобождению Украины от агрессивных и ультранационалистических сил количество таких самолетов двойного назначения было увеличено. По  открытым данным, обнародованным в западных СМИ и на военных сайтах Соединенных Штатов, их количество в короткие сроки увеличилось в пять раз. Причем, отчасти за счет дополнительной переброски из ряда стран-членов НАТО современных американских истребителей-бомбардировщиков пятого поколения F-35 А, сертифицированных под доставку ядерного оружия. 
 
Как уже отмечалось, США перегнали восемь тяжелых бомбардировщиков В-52Н в Европу.
 
Как видим, кольцо ядерной угрозы вокруг России и Белоруссии со стороны США и НАТО значительно усилилось как по количеству ядерных боезарядов, так и по количеству их носителей как стратегического, так и тактического назначения. В Европе еще в середине пятидесятых годов был завезен и до сих пор находится американский «троянский ядерный конь». 
 
У Соединенных Штатов остается неизменной стратегическая установка нанесения первого ядерного удара, в том числе по России и КНР.
 
 Вызывает удивление, что некоторые российские СМИ почему-то не хотят обращать внимание в критическом ключе на существующую ядерную опасность, проецируемую от США и НАТО. На одном телеканале мне сообщили, что проблему ликвидации операции ВВС НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» можно будет обсуждать только тогда, когда ей исполнится двадцать лет с момента ее создания, то есть с марта 2024 года. 
 
Странно. Ведь речь идет об американских  ядерных средствах передового базирования, которых у России по ту сторону двух океанов близ американской территории пока нет. 
Важно: в своих ответах на предложение России о гарантиях безопасности Соединенные Штаты и НАТО наши оппоненты не предложили ничего  конкретного в отношении своего стратегического и тактического ядерного оружия, находящегося в Европе. Не было ни слова об их сокращении, отказе от дополнительного развертывания или об их выводе с европейского континента.
 
В условиях тотальной и многовекторной  военной угрозы, в том числе ракетно-ядерной,  маячащей со стороны Соединенных Штатов и трансатлантического альянса в отношении России, все названные особенности развертывания американских ядерных сил и их повышенная боеготовность несут крайне негативные стратегические последствия для национальной безопасности России и глобальной стабильности во всем мире.  
 
Автор: В.П. Козин, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук России

Ядерная монополия Генштаба

Международные договоры должны устранять угрозы, а не создавать их  

История договорного процесса между СССР/РФ и США в сфере стратегических вооружений (СВ) заслуживает отдельного развернутого анализа, ибо вопрос все более актуален. Соединенные Штаты с большой неохотой идут на относительно равноправные соглашения по ограничению или сокращению СВ и только тогда, когда Россия обладает столь мощным потенциалом возмездия, который обеспечивает гарантированный массированный ответный удар.

Договариваются США исключительно с намерением ослабить наш потенциал до уровня, позволяющего нанести первый обезоруживающий удар или предъявить ядерный ультиматум с позиции силы.

Какая стабильность нам нужна

В совместном еще советско-американском заявлении 1990 года говорилось: «Под стратегической стабильностью понимается такое соотношение стратегических сил СССР и США, при котором отсутствует стимул для нанесения первого удара». При внешней благообразности это или прямо американская формулировка, или результат согласия прозападных горбачевских переговорщиков с предложением США. Адекватная интересам СССР/РФ и глобального мира формула должна быть иной: «Под стратегической стабильностью понимается такое соотношение стратегических сил, при котором каждая из сторон обладает потенциалом глубокого ответного удара с нанесением агрессору неприемлемого для него ущерба». К слову, сам термин «стратегическая стабильность» представляется неточным – правильнее говорить о необходимости обеспечения глобальной стабильности.

Верная терминология – база концепции, служащей основой верной внешней и военно-технической политики. Что это означает применительно к сфере стратегических вооружений в свете переговоров? Необходим исторически и политически верный взгляд на то, нужны ли России здесь какие-либо соглашения, и если да, то какие. И сразу надо сказать, что нашей стране имеет смысл заключать только те, которые усиливают, а не ослабляют ее безопасность, устраняют угрозы, а не создают их. На первый взгляд, сказанное банально, однако военно-политическая реальность, особенно после 1991 года, предметно свидетельствует, что не все так просто и очевидно.

В военно-техническом отношении необходима вариантная оценка того количества и качества ракетно-ядерных вооружений РФ, которые надежно обеспечивают нам потенциал сдерживания за счет глубокого ответного удара. Вариантность обусловливается тем, что эффективный потенциал при наличии и при отсутствии у США НПРО будет различаться в разы.

Здесь, правда, тоже не все просто. Адекватная оценка качественно-количественного облика СВ РФ сегодня крайне осложнена странной, мягко говоря, ситуацией, не отвечающей государственным интересам. В СССР велась пусть и недостаточно скоординированная по сравнению с масштабом задачи, но все же совместная работа аналитических структур МО, разработчиков носителей СВ и их ядерного боевого оснащения. Эта интеллектуальная кооперация сейчас разрушена, и хотя формально существуют структуры при ВПК, они реального веса не имеют. В то же время известным влиянием пользуются организации типа Института США и Канады РАН и структуры МИДа РФ, уже не раз Россию подставлявшие, достаточно вспомнить злополучный договор СНВ-2. Выходом могло бы стать создание в Генштабе ВС РФ нового Главного управления по ядерному планированию с функцией обобщения оценок и с монопольным правом определять те нижние договорные пороги, на которые Россия может соглашаться, не ослабляя внешней безопасности.

Адекватные военно-технические оценки – и только они – должны стать исходной базой любых возможных переговоров в сфере СВ. Причем ясно, что без привлечения как минимум всех членов официального ядерного клуба, стран НАТО, неофициальных ядерных держав, а также Японии такие переговоры будут профанацией идеи обеспечения стабильности. Ясно и то, что хотя остальные не должны оказаться статистами, главные роли принадлежат РФ, США и КНР, поскольку Россия и Америка имеют наиболее развитые и совершенные ракетно-ядерные вооружения, а Китай при недостаточно совершенных чисто ядерных возможностях обладает впечатляющим межконтинентальным ракетно-космическим потенциалом. Важна роль Англии, Франции и Германии. Наконец, заранее ясно, что без отказа США не на бумаге, а реального, со сворачиванием инфраструктуры НПРО ни о каких сокращениях СВ со стороны России речи быть не может. Напротив, необходимо их наращивание, прежде всего в РВСН.

В 2021 году заканчивается действие Договора СНВ-3, и уже сейчас в РФ кое-кто начинает высказывать озабоченность тем, как бы сохранить его режим, предлагается возобновить диалог, восстановить двустороннюю российско-американскую экспертную группу. Спрашивается: во имя чего?

Еще раз о СНВ-1

Первым документом, который предусматривал ограничение ядерных арсеналов СССР и США, стал Договор о сокращении стратегических наступательных вооружений (СНВ-1). Он подписан 31 июля 1991 года в Москве Михаилом Горбачевым и Джорджем Бушем, а вступил в силу через три года после развала СССР – 5 декабря 1994-го со сроком действия до 5 декабря 2009 года. Каждая из сторон брала обязательство сократить общее число баллистических ракет (БР) до 1600 единиц.

Причем вводился такой лимит на забрасываемый вес БР, что только РФ должна была сократить половину своих МБР, определяемых как тяжелые (с 308 до 154 единиц), а США не были ограничены ни в МБР, ни тем более в отношении морской системы Д-5 с БРПЛ «Трайдент-II». Предельное количество ядерных боезарядов по СНВ-1 устанавливалось в шесть тысяч единиц. Как же получилось, что советское руководство подписало договор, который с полным правом можно назвать предательским? Слова министра обороны СССР маршала Дмитрия Язова: «Было такое впечатление, что я причастен к какому-то нехорошему делу. Так и хотелось сказать Горбачеву: «Если вы с моим мнением не считаетесь, если переговариваетесь с американцами за моей спиной, я в таком случае предателем быть не хочу». А потом и появился CНВ-1. Американцы протащили в нем почти все свои позиции. Уступки с нашей стороны были очевидны.

Бывший начальник штаба Ракетных войск стратегического назначения (РВСН) генерал-полковник Виктор Есин был более сдержан. На вопрос о том, как СНВ-1 восприняло командование РВСН, ответил: «Как данность. Он, конечно, не вызвал энтузиазма ни у тогдашнего главкома РВСН Максимова, ни у генералов и офицеров. Все понимали, что войска, составляющие главный компонент стратегических ядерных сил страны, будут неизбежно сокращены. К этому объективно подталкивало состояние экономики страны, которая «надорвалась» от непомерных военных расходов».

Однако здесь налицо противоречие уже в том, что сокращение РВСН отнюдь не было неизбежностью. Как раз из соображений оптимизации военных расходов (не таких уж, к слову, и непомерных) следовало в полной мере сохранять именно РВСН – наиболее значимую для нейтрализации угрозы агрессии часть Вооруженных Сил. Тем более что тогда координаты шахт советских МБР американцам известны не были.

Зато полезным и для нашего дня было сообщение генерала Есина о советском механизме выработки решений: «Тогда по вопросам переговоров о сокращении и ограничении вооружений существовала Комиссия политбюро ЦК КПСС, получившая обиходное название «Большая пятерка». Возглавлял эту комиссию секретарь ЦК КПСС по оборонным вопросам, а входили в нее по должности министры иностранных дел и обороны, председатели Комитета государственной безопасности и Военно-промышленной комиссии. В 1974 году для обеспечения работы «Большой пятерки» была образована межведомственная рабочая группа, составленная из представителей (экспертов) указанных выше ведомств. Эта рабочая группа получила название «Малая пятерка». Ее, как правило, возглавлял первый заместитель начальника Генерального штаба ВС СССР или же сам начальник Генштаба. К работе в «Малой пятерке» на периодической основе привлекались ученые из Академии наук СССР, генеральные и главные конструкторы оборонных КБ, руководители предприятий ОПК и научно-исследовательских институтов».

Лишь бывший начальник 4-го ЦНИИ Минобороны РФ (ведущей научной организации РВСН) генерал-майор в отставке Владимир Дворкин высоко оценил СНВ-1, заявив в 2010 году: «Договор проходил многолетнюю стадию разработки и согласования каждой статьи, меморандумов и протоколов в условиях острейших споров сторон и поисков компромиссов. Формирование позиций по всем спорным вопросам осуществлялось двумя «пятерками» – большой и малой. В эти органы входили профессионалы высочайшего уровня».

Изучение стиля русского текста СНВ-1 действительно показывает, что над ним много работали в СССР (в отличие от текста СНВ-2 – рабской кальки с английского оригинала), однако основные количественно-качественные положения СНВ-1 взвешенными не назовешь. Подлинные профессионалы-патриоты никогда не согласились бы на одностороннее 50-процентное сокращение советских тяжелых МБР, на игнорирование КРМБ и БРПЛ США и т. д. Бывший начальник Главного управления международного военного сотрудничества Минобороны генерал-полковник Леонид Ивашов проливает дополнительный свет на тогдашнюю ситуацию: «Неожиданностью для советских военных в ходе переговоров на высшем уровне по проблемам СНВ в Вашингтоне стало подключение к стратегической проблематике известного музыканта с не вполне определенным гражданством Ростроповича. Последний, не вступая в полемику по военным вопросам, акцентировал внимание на негативной роли политбюро ЦК КПСС в вопросах музыкального искусства. Активизировал свою деятельность в этот период и академик Арбатов, директор Института США и Канады АН СССР. Лейтмотив его публикаций и служебных записок таков: во имя безопасности человечества советской стороне нужно идти на уступки… В ходе переговоров сложилась парадоксальная ситуация: и Горбачев, и Яковлев, и Шеварднадзе играли по сути дела на американской стороне. И совместно против советского военного руководства»…

Иными словами, среди тех, кто входил в «пятерки» и обсуждал положение дел, профессионалы были, однако не они влияли на принятие итоговых решений.

Об этом же сказал в 2010 году Леонид Ивашов: «Ранее никто, никакое ведомство не могло игнорировать или каким-то образом корректировать мнение Минобороны и Генштаба в вопросах ограничения и сокращения вооружений. При Горбачеве ситуация изменилась. Минобороны и Генштаб были отведены на вторые позиции. Затем начались уступки. Первой серьезной уступкой советской стороны по проблеме СНВ стала сдача американцам Красноярской загоризонтной РЛС, строящейся для ввода в систему СПРН. Станция возводилась в нарушение Договора о ПРО 1972 года. Но решение советским руководством еще до Горбачева и Шеварднадзе принималось по причине более раннего строительства Соединенными Штатами РЛС в Туле, Гренландия, что было явным нарушением того же Договора о ПРО. На претензии советской стороны они заявили, что РЛС им нужна для обеспечения безопасности и демонтировать ее не будут. Горбачев и Шеварднадзе Красноярскую РЛС сдали без сопротивления».

В свете сказанного напоминания заслуживает давнее сообщение генерал-майора Юрия Дроздова, который 12 лет возглавлял нелегальную разведку КГБ. Во время совместного ужина уже в постсоветское время с «коллегами» из спецслужб США одним из них было сказано: «Вы хорошие парни. Мы знаем, что у вас были успехи, которыми вы можете гордиться. Но пройдет время, и вы ахнете, если будет рассекречено, какую агентуру имели ЦРУ и Госдепартамент у вас наверху». Если американцы так откровенно похвастались своими «кротами» в советских верхах, то страшно себе представить, сколько их могло быть в разного рода конторах, занимавшихся «аналитикой» и тому подобным. И сколько их может быть в «экспертном сообществе» по сей день. Отношение к тем же договорам СНВ-1, -2 и -3 может быть здесь лакмусовой бумажкой.

Возвратимся к оценке генерал-майора в отставке Владимира Дворкина, относящейся к 2010 году. Он утверждал: «Интегральный ответ на все критические замечания по Договору СНВ-1 заключается в том, что с позиций того времени, когда он был подписан, это был равноценный компромисс. Поэтому его критики – это те люди, которые если что-то и понимают, то всего лишь желают как-то заявить о себе или же совершенно некомпетентны. Как, например, те высоко сидящие деятели, которые заявляют о том, что Договор СНВ-1 предательский и преступный».

Как раз это заявление ставит главную точку над i. Несмотря на все уступки, «высокопрофессиональные экспертизы» Ростроповича, одностороннее уничтожение тяжелых МБР и прочее, можно было бы согласиться с СНВ-1, если бы сохранялось то положение дел, при котором договор был подписан. Но оно ведь не сохранилось! СНВ-1 действительно разрабатывался годами, но как советско-американский договор, в геополитической и военно-политической ситуации, принципиально отличной от той, которая возникла вскоре после его подписания в 1991-м.

Военно-политические и военно-технические возможности РФ по сравнению с советскими резко ослабли. А следование положениям Договора СНВ-1 еще более ухудшало ситуацию. Необходимо было, сославшись на произошедшие изменения, выйти из Договора СНВ-1, но вместо этого он стал выполняться.

Эксперты кто?

Есть русская поговорка: «Первая рюмка – колом, вторая – соколом, остальные – мелкими пташечками». Она точно характеризует российскую линию в переговорной политике накануне 1991 года и после него. Объективно очевидным становилось следующее: чем меньше у России будет стратегических носителей и боевых блоков на них, тем более вероятным будет выход США из Договора о ПРО с последующим развертыванием НПРО. Очевидной была и цель Соединенных Штатов: создать такое соотношение сил, когда США будут способны или нанести по РФ безнаказанный первый обезоруживающий удар, или предъявить ультимативные требования по одностороннему ядерному разоружению – частичному или полному. И в этих условиях Россия соглашается на все более масштабное и фактически одностороннее уничтожение своих СЯС, выполняет СНВ-1, заключает договоры СНВ-2, о сокращении наступательных потенциалов (ДСНП), об открытом небе (ДОН), о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний (ДВЗЯИ) и, наконец, действующий до 2021 года СНВ-3. При этом весной 2011 года Россия в соответствии с СНВ-3 обменялась с США данными о составе и местах размещения стратегических ядерных сил. То есть теперь в США известны абсолютно точные географические координаты российских ШПУ МБР, а это важно именно для агрессивного обезоруживающего удара. Причем этот обмен был сделан после того, как США вышли из Договора о ПРО, то есть тогда, когда агрессивность перспективного курса Соединенных Штатов уже не вызывала никаких сомнений у мало-мальски компетентного человека.

В связи со сказанным давно пора указать на нетерпимость дальнейшего сохранения анонимности для соотечественников персонального состава наших групп экспертов на переговорах по всем соглашениям (начиная с СНВ-1), относящимся к сфере СВ, а также совместной комиссии по соблюдению и инспекциям, делегаций на переговорах 90-х годов, относящихся к сфере ПРО. В ответ на запросы на сей счет, в том числе комитетов Государственной Думы РФ, неизменно следует отказ в информации на том основании, что она якобы секретна. Однако секретно то, что не должен знать враг, а состав советских и российских делегаций и групп экспертов, сопровождающих переговоры, противной стороне, то есть США, естественно, известен. Скрывать и далее то, что известно им, от общественности России недопустимо с любой точки зрения. Общество должно знать тех, кому страна обязана договорами, полными неувязок, односторонних уступок и несообразностей типа зачета «один стратегический тяжелый бомбардировщик – один ядерный заряд».

Что делать?

Верно осмыслив прошлое, мы сможем адекватно выстраивать будущее, в том числе в военно-политической сфере. Приверженные интересам Российского государства эксперты, анализируя существующие договоренности с США, отмечают многочисленные нарушения Соединенными Штатами Америки всей гаммы дву- и многосторонних договоров, включая СНВ-3. Что еще более существенно, объективный анализ выявляет неравноправный, опасный для России характер договоров. Подлинные профессионалы в своих рекомендациях достаточно единодушны – различия имеются лишь в степени резкости, но все отмечают недопустимость сохранения сложившегося подхода в части договоров и переговоров и вялую линию России в информационной сфере.

Можно рекомендовать, например, следующее:

резкое усиление информационно-разъяснительной работы внутри и вне России с приданием ей активного, наступательного характера и большей конкретности, подкрепленной количественными показателями. Владимир Козин, известный российский эксперт, отмечает: убедительно подобранные цифры иногда действуют сильнее на западную аудиторию, чем многочасовые выступления, что показала, в частности, встреча в Европарламенте в ноябре 2018 года;

отказ от сокращения стратегических вооружений в условиях развертывания и функционирования НПРО США в любой ее архитектуре. Напротив, российские СВ необходимо вновь массировать, прежде всего в составе РВСН. Нецелесообразно возобновлять процесс даже закрытых консультаций, не говоря уже о полноценных переговорах по СВ в двустороннем формате. Необходимо отказаться и от продления режима СНВ-3 при наличии НПРО США;

не на экспертном, а на официальном государственном уровне (после соответствующей подготовительной работы по обобщению нарушений СНВ-3, ДОН и других) разъяснение мировой общественности и руководству стран, почему Россия не намерена возобновлять переговорный процесс до тех пор, пока не будет убеждена в реальной, а не показной доброй воле США и членов НАТО;

все прерогативы в части определения возможной концептуальной военно-политической и конкретной переговорной линии России в сфере ракетно-ядерных вооружений (в случае все же подготовки и открытия таких переговоров) вернуть Генеральному штабу ВС РФ. Мнение Минобороны и Генштаба в вопросах ограничения и сокращения вооружений должно формироваться с учетом позиций всех заинтересованных ведомств и организаций, но в итоге быть не просто решающим, а окончательным. Для этого необходимо внутри ГШ ВС создать структуру, способную взвешенно, всесторонне и профессионально интегрировать различные точки зрения и определять качественно-количественный облик всех составляющих СВ – от наземных носителей до космического эшелона СПРН. Как уже сказано, такой структурой может стать новое Главное управление по ядерному планированию (ГУЯП) с правом (после консультаций с МИДом РФ) окончательно назначать предельные договорные пороги по числу и номенклатуре носителей, боезарядам и другим пунктам, обязательные для российских участников переговоров. Новое ГУ должно также при содействии и участии ученых из РАН, официально назначенных экспертов из оборонных НИИ, КБ и предприятий ОПК, НИИ и организаций Минобороны вырабатывать общие и конкретные инструкции на ведение переговоров и курировать сами переговоры наряду с МИДом РФ. Формирование персонального состава российских делегаций на переговорах и экспертных групп, а также тех или иных консультационных и прочих подобных комиссий должно происходить гласно после предварительного обсуждения в специализированных периодических изданиях. А окончательный состав определяется ГУЯП по согласованию с профильными комитетами Госдумы и МИДа РФ.

Этими рекомендациями перечень необходимых военно-политических, информационных и организационных мер и действий, естественно, не исчерпывается. Необходима интенсификация как НИОКР по ракетно-ядерным системам оружия, так и программ их быстрейшего количественного наращивания. Только в этом случае будет возможна переговорная политика, результатом которой станут соглашения, устраняющие угрозы безопасности России, а не создающие их.

Автор: Сергей Брезкун, Источник: ВПК

  • XXI век
  • Ракетные войска стратегического назначения
  • Россия
  • США

Ядерное оружие в Европе: Давно назревший вопрос

Официальный представитель МИД РФ Мария Захарова 16 декабря публично подняла вопрос о ядерном оружии США в Европе. Она заявила, что всё такое оружие должно быть возвращено на родину. Насколько такое заявление является своевременным, и насколько велика вероятность, что США к нему прислушаются? Об этом - мнение эксперта Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, члена-корреспондента Академии военных наук, эксперта Координационного совета некоммерческих организаций России Владимира Козина.

Снова о старом

Удивляться здесь абсолютно нечему: это не первое подобное заявление, сначала СССР, а затем и Россия давно ставили об этом вопрос. Потому что решать проблему тактического ядерного оружия невозможно, не решив проблему его географического развёртывания. И здесь явное неравенство: у нас за пределами Российской Федерации никакого тактического ядерного оружия давно нет. Да и стратегического тоже.

А у американцев – есть: на территории их союзников по НАТО, которые не имеют своего собственного ядерного оружия. Да к тому же с середины 50-ых годов. И его количество в Европе возрастет после принятия на вооружение новой корректируемой авиабомбы В-61-12

Поэтому мы всегда говорили: достижение договорённостей в ядерной сфере, в том числе по ТЯО, невозможно, пока не будет достигнут паритет по пространственной сфере его развертывания. То есть, это не только давно назревшее, но и давно озвученное требование (прим. ред. ТЯО – тактическое ядерное оружие).

Подозрительное молчание

Причем, после того как мы к середине 90-х годов вывели своё тактическое ядерное оружие с территории Белоруссии, Казахстана и Украины (то есть из трёх государств бывших республиками Советского Союза), мы стали этот вопрос ставить перед американцами особенно активно.

Но, к сожалению, все американские администрации, с которыми на эту тему разговаривали, не вывезли до конца на континентальную часть США всех ядерных боезарядов ТЯО. Администрация Трампа также категорически отказалась решать этот вопрос.

Неизвестно, как к этому вопросу будет относиться новая администрация США. Ведь речь идёт не только о демонтаже и вывозе всего американского ТЯО, но и о демонтаже всей инфраструктуры его размещения, хранения, обслуживания и так далее. Пока Джозеф Байден не сделал никакого заявления на этот счёт.

Будем ждать 20 января следующего года, когда Байден вступит в должность президента. Вот тогда он начнёт постепенно высказываться по проблематике контроля над ядерными вооружениями. А пока он получил в наследство «дамоклов ядерный меч», завезенный США в Европу: в Бельгию, Нидерланды, Италию и ФРГ. А в азиатской части ещё и в Турции: на базе Инджирлик (в области Адана, на юге страны).

Традиционные нарушители

Кстати говоря, в этих пяти странах Европы американцы держат свои запасы в нарушение статьи 1 Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия. Потому, что они разместили ядерное оружие на территории неядерных государств. А сами эти страны нарушили вторую статью этого Договора, поскольку дали согласие на такое размещение. Уходящая республиканская администрация решительно отказалась вывести тактическое ядерное оружие США из Европы на свою территорию, которое находится там с середины 50-ых годов.

Поэтому, повторю: вопрос не новый, он старый. Но он никак не решается американской стороной. Ближайшее окружение из советников «ястребиного» характера, которое собирается сейчас вокруг Байдена заставляет сомневаться, что новый президент объявит о вывозе потенциала ТЯО из Европы.

Они будут держать его до последнего. Или пытаться под обещание вывезти получить какие-нибудь уступки взамен.

Автор: Владимир Козин, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, члекорр Академии военных наук, эксперт КС НКО.

Источник: Общественная служба новостей — ОСН

Ядерное оружие в Европе: Что скажет новый президент США?

Ядерное оружие США в Европе находится уже больше полувека. Как уже рассказывал на наших страницах ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, член-корреспондент Академии военных наук, эксперт Координационного совета некоммерческих организаций России Владимир Козин, все предыдущие администрации США даже разговаривать не хотели о его выводе. Удастся ли начать эту беседу после того, как в Белом доме сменится администрация?

Потому что могут

Вряд ли Байден пойдёт на то, чтобы убрать из Европы американские запасы ТЯО.

Американцы верны своим концепциям. Они ещё с середины 50-х годов прошлого века начали размещать ядерное оружие за своими рубежами на постоянной основе, они оставляют его там неизменным. Более того: они будут постепенно заменять старые образцы тактического ядерного оружия.

Сейчас такого остаётся только один вид: это бомбы свободного падения, гравитационные авиабомбы. Их заменят на новую корректируемую ядерную авиабомбу B61-12. При этом надо учитывать, что всё американское тактическое ядерное оружие – это средства передового базирования относительно территории Российской Федерации.

Вот в чём опасность. И новые, и старые бомбы могут быть очень быстро доставлены и самолётами средней дальности (с максимальной дальностью полета в среднем до 2 000 км), и самолётами тяжёлой стратегической авиации, летающие между континентами. Они уже давно освоили воздушное пространство Европы над странами-членами НАТО. Но с недавних пор они как дома себя они чувствуют и в небе над Украиной.

У США есть целый спектр самолётов для этих задач: B-52H, B-1B и B-2 – всё это сертифицированные носители ядерного оружия, в том числе авиабомб.

Убрать нельзя оставить

Поэтому тема устранения ядерного оружия из Европы – очень важная и давно назревшая. Потому что: пока в Европе остаётся американское тактическое оружие, то продление договора СНВ-3, я считаю, нецелесообразно.

А американцы сейчас пытаются решать проблему ядерных вооружений выборочно. Например, одну тему – стратегические наступательные вооружения – мы худо-бедно обсуждаем, а тактическое ядерное оружие, оно, с самого момента размещения в Европе, ни разу не было предметом переговоров.

Ни разу!

И, соответственно, никаких договорённостей не заключалось. Была только инициатива Буша-Горбачёва, когда добровольно – то есть вне всяких официальных договоров и соглашений – мы с американцами сократили свои запасы тактического ядерного оружия примерно на две трети от неназванного уровня.

То есть, был объявлено большое сокращение, но не в абсолютных значениях, а в процентах. При этом ни одна сторона не назвала, от какого уровня она будет считать этот процент. Поэтому на данный момент невозможно точно подсчитать, сколько ТЯО осталось у той или другой стороны.

И мы, раз не подписывали с ними никакого соглашения, то и не обменивались никакими данными по ТЯО. По стратегическим наступательным вооружениям (СНВ) – да, обменивались. По ракетам средней и меньшей дальности (РСМД), договор по которым канул в Лету по инициативе Вашингтона под лживым предлогом – тоже обменивались.

А по ТЯО – нет.

И американцы завышают количество боезарядов у России именно по тактическому ядерному арсеналу. А своё, естественно, занижают. Причем, целенаправленно. И с дальним прицелом: они явно усиливают свой позиционный козырь на переговорах.

Автор: Владимир Козин, ведущий эксперт Центра военно-политических исследований МГИМО МИД России, члекорр Академии военных наук.

Источник: Общественная служба новостей — ОСН

Ядерное оружие: двойная правовая и моральная ответственность США

Заместитель государственного секретаря США по вопросам международной безопасности и нераспространению Кристофер Форд, уже зарекомендовавший себя жёстким противником России, в ноябре этого года выступил с докладом на международной конференции по проблематике обеспечения контроля за ядерным оружием с точки зрения международного права и морали.

В своём выступлении, так и озаглавленном «Правовые и моральные вопросы разоружения: критические аспекты», он попытался рассуждать о правовых и даже о моральных последствиях возможного применения ядерного оружия всеми другими ядерными государствами, но никак не Соединёнными Штатами и не их союзниками по «ядерному клубу», а именно Великобританией и Францией. Не забыл он коснуться и перспективных российских видов ядерных вооружений, ещё не охваченных договорно-ограничительными мерами в сфере контроля над вооружениями, по которым выявилось их разительное отставание США от России.

Подвергнув резкой критике движение за безъядерный мир, этот высокопоставленный американский представитель, пока ещё работающий на нынешнюю республиканскую администрацию, объявил, что Соединённые Штаты никогда не присоединятся к международному Договору о запрещении ядерного оружия, который вступит в силу 22 января 2021 года.

Бревно в американском глазу

Кристофер Форд всячески пытался обелить нынешнюю американскую ядерную стратегию, одобренную администрацией Дональда Трампа в феврале 2018 года. Главным тезисом докладчика в данном контексте стало его утверждение о том, что эта доктринальная установка позволяет Вашингтону применить ядерное оружие только при неких «чрезвычайных обстоятельствах». И никак иначе.

Но выступавший явно скрыл основную черту этой доктринальной американской стратегической установки. На самом же деле эта стратегия предусматривает использование национальных ядерных потенциалов в 14 обозначенных случаях, нарочито разбросанных по всему тексту документа с целью затруднения их анализа, в том числе в качестве обоснования нанесения первого упреждающего и превентивного ядерного удара по большой группе государств.

Стратегия США предусматривает использование национальных ядерных потенциалов в 14 обозначенных случаях

 

Из обозначенных вариантов восемь оснований имеют сознательно расплывчатый характер, что позволяет США наносить ядерные удары по другим государствам практически в любое время, используя вольную интерпретацию включённых формулировок.

Такие положения опровергают голословное утверждение Кристофера Форда о том, что американская сторона занимает твёрдую правовую и моральную позицию по ядерному оружию, поскольку, мол, выступает за его неприменение. 

Доказательства такой линии были быстро найдены. По представлению докладчика, военные и гражданские юристы, работающие в Пентагоне, дескать, могут создать правовые препятствия на пути использования американского ядерного оружия. Но такое заявление явно противоречит существующей в США военно-стратегической практике, которая наделяет любого президента страны исключительным и единоличным правом применения ядерного оружия, то есть без объявления войны и минуя соответствующее разрешение Конгресса, а также игнорируя возможное отрицательное мнение министра обороны и государственного секретаря по этому вопросу. Несогласных с желанием президента страны применить ядерное оружие хозяин Белого дома просто уволит.

Здесь надо заметить: все попытки американских конгрессменов пересмотреть столь высокие и опасные прерогативы главы американского государства, причём, независимо от его принадлежности к Республиканской или Демократической партии, оказались тщетными вплоть до настоящего времени.

Значительная часть выступления этого высокопоставленного представителя американского внешнеполитического ведомства была посвящена критике ядерных доктрин России и КНР, что уже давно стало стабильной традицией Вашингтона видеть соломинку в глазах у других, но не замечать бревна в своих.

Кристофер Форд настолько углубился в произвольную трактовку российской ядерной доктрины, что уверенно сообщил о том, что она якобы допускает применение ядерного оружия даже в случае нанесения каким-то государством первого ракетно-ядерного удара по пустынным и лесным районам Российской Федерации. Но это же явное преувеличение, поскольку такого положения в российской ядерной доктрине никогда не было и до сих пор нет. Похоже, что это не просто её вольная интерпретация, а свидетельство полного непрофессионализма названного «специалиста по контролю над вооружениями», кстати говоря, имеющего степень доктора наук.

Давление на КНР продолжается

Вновь «досталось» и Китаю. Заместитель государственного секретаря подверг критике китайскую концепцию «минимального ядерного сдерживания», а также обязательство Пекина о неприменении ядерного оружия в первом ударе, взятое им ещё в 1964 году, когда он впервые испытал ядерное оружие. По мнению американского дипломата, концепция отказа от первого ядерного удара является «весьма бесполезной». Он выразил обеспокоенность, что КНР наращивает количество своих ракетно-ядерных вооружений и отвергает все призывы принять участие в диалоге между Россией и США по контролю над ядерными вооружениями. И после такой сомнительной вводной Кристофер Форд потребовал от Пекина обеспечить более высокую степень открытости в его национальной ядерной доктрине, хотя она уже давно была предана огласке китайской стороной.

Недавно её разъяснили ещё раз. «С самого первого дня обладания ядерным оружием Китай выступает за полное запрещение и окончательное уничтожение ядерного вооружения. Китай провозгласил политику неприменения ядерного оружия первым в любое время и при любых обстоятельствах. Он также безоговорочно обязуется не применять и не угрожать применением ядерного оружия в отношении стран, им не обладающих, и зон, свободных от ядерного оружия», - вновь изложил китайскую точку зрения в Первом комитете Генеральной Ассамблеи ООН по вопросам разоружения и международной безопасности заместитель постоянного представителя КНР при этой международной организации Гэн Шуан.

Он уточнил, что Пекин не отказывается участвовать в глобальном процессе разоружения, но ожидать его присоединения к каким-либо переговорам о контроле над ядерными вооружениями является «несправедливым, неразумным и бессмысленным» с учётом значительного дисбаланса, существующего между китайским ядерным арсеналом и ядерными потенциалами, которыми располагают США и Россия. При этом было твёрдо заявлено, что КНР не позволит принуждать или шантажировать себя этим искусственным «переговорным фактором».

Действительно: весьма странной представляется попытка Соединённых Штатов многократно будировать вопрос о присоединении китайской стороны к будущим переговорам по сокращению ядерных вооружений, если общее количество её ядерных боезарядов почти в пять раз меньше суммарного количества американских ядерных боезарядов стратегического назначения, то есть 280 против 1550 единиц. Тем более представляется нелогичным со стороны Вашингтона упорно зазывать КНР в такой переговорный процесс, если США выйдут из Договора СНВ-3 путём отказа от его продления на какой-то новый срок после 5 февраля следующего года.

Новый пропагандистский заход

Кристофер Форд сделал упор на необходимости ликвидации Россией двух систем вооружений, которые не ограничены никакими договорными актами России и Соединённых Штатов в области контроля над вооружениями.

Он назвал российскую беспилотную подводную систему «Посейдон», оснащённую ядерным боезарядом мегатонного класса, которая, по его словам, ставит «серьёзные вопросы» о том, насколько её применение будет соответствовать принципам и нормам международного права. Аргумент Кристофера Форда против использования «Посейдона» заключался в том, что беспилотный подводный аппарат функционирует без возможности его возвращения на свою базу во время трансокеанского перехода. А разве американские межконтинентальные стратегические ракеты морского и наземного базирования с ядерной начинкой можно также после их запуска вернуть на атомные субмарины в Мировом океане или в шахтные пусковые установки на земле?

Это новый пропагандистский трюк американской стороны в отношении обозначенной системы, которую она хотела бы ликвидировать «здесь и сейчас», не имея на то никаких политических или юридических оснований. Причина? Названная перспективная технологическая российская новинка вообще не упомянута в Договоре СНВ-3 или в каком-то ином двустороннем российско-американском соглашении по контролю над вооружениями.

Кристофер Форд также выразил обеспокоенность по поводу наличия у России комплекса автоматического нанесения массированного ответного ядерного удара под названием «Периметр», известный на Западе как «Мёртвая рука» («Dead Hand»).

Касаясь названной системы ядерного возмездия «Периметр», этот высокопоставленный представитель Государственного департамента заявил, что в случае её полной активации в какой-то чрезвычайной ситуации она смогла бы дать команду на введение в действие ядерного арсенала России. Кристофер Форд выразил сомнение, что можно оправдать существование такого комплекса какими-то позитивными аргументами. «У всех, кого волнует нравственный аспект ядерного оружия, «Периметр», безусловно, вызывает тревожные вопросы. Может ли Россия оправдать «Периметр»?.. Похоже, что России предстоит многое объяснить», - заявил заместитель государственного секретаря США.

Некая новая заявка американской стороны

 

Вероятно, что это некая новая заявка американской стороны. Не добившись ликвидации всех семи перспективных видов российских вооружений только за одно обещание Соединённых Штатов продлить Договор СНВ-3, да ещё с тремя несуразными предварительными условиями, Вашингтон теперь взялся за «Периметр». Но дождётся ли специального ответа или разъяснений российской стороны на этот свой демарш Кристофер Форд? Как скептически заметил главный герой одного популярного советского кинофильма: «Это вряд ли».

«Серьёзные и тревожные вопросы». А почему не к США?

А нет ли «серьёзных и тревожных вопросов» на эти темы к самим Соединённым Штатам?

В Вашингтоне считают, что их вообще не может быть. Или они не должны быть заданы. США не подлежат никакой критике и ни за что не отвечают - они уникальны.

Но в реальности подобных вопросов гораздо больше, чем тех, которые могут быть заданы американской стороной другим ядерным государствам.

Созданный в СССР комплекс автоматического управления массированным ответным ядерным ударом «Периметр» действительно существует и находится на боевом дежурстве. По имеющимся открытым данным, в случае ядерного нападения на Российскую Федерацию и уничтожения командно-управленческих центров принятия решений указанная система сможет самостоятельно или с минимальным участием человека нанести по агрессору ответный удар. На другие перспективные новаторские российские ударные боевые системы также возложены задачи возмездия в ответном ударе.

Логично обратить внимание Вашингтона в этой связи на следующее обстоятельство: а какие свои перспективные системы вооружений США включают в список военных новинок, противоречащих современному международному праву? Но там до сих пор уклоняются от ответа на этот простой, но вполне закономерный вопрос.

Кристофер Форд скрыл, что обе названные им российские системы являются инструментом оборонительного, а не наступательного ядерного сдерживания России, что они обеспечивают неотвратимость справедливого и адекватного возмездия в случае ракетно-ядерного нападения на Россию Соединённых Штатов и их ядерных союзников в стане НАТО, между которыми имеются договорённости по сотрудничеству и взаимодействию в ракетно-ядерной сфере.

О какой морали относительно применения ядерного оружия могут говорить в Вашингтоне, если Соединённые Штаты первыми в мире дважды применили ядерное оружие против мирных японских городов,  Хиросима и Нагасаки в 1945 году, которые не имели военно-стратегического значения? О какой морали применительно к ядерному оружию может рассуждать американская сторона, если её высшее военно-политическое руководство в разные годы:

 

  • пять раз планировало применить стратегическое ядерное оружие против Советского Союза в первые послевоенные годы, причём первый ядерный удар предполагалось нанести ещё в конце 1945 года, то есть в год разгрома гитлеровской Германии;
     
  • два раза предполагало использовать ядерное оружие: стратегического назначения в период Карибского ракетного кризиса и тактическое ядерное оружие в период драматического военно-политического противостояния между Организацией Варшавского договора и НАТО в связи с «берлинским кризисом»;
     
  • пять раз готовилось применить тактическое ядерное оружие в ходе американского вооружённого вмешательства во внутренние дела Вьетнама, Северной Кореи, Афганистана и Ирака, а также против Ирана.

 

Какую мораль имеет в виду Кристофер Форд, когда американские тяжёлые стратегические бомбардировщики уже давно освоили воздушное пространство нескольких десятков государств Европы и используют военные аэродромы 19 европейских стран-членов Североатлантического союза для обеспечения регулярного воздушного патрулирования и отработки нанесения учебных ракетно-ядерных бомбовых ударов явно не по своим сателлитам по этому военному альянсу?

Какой норме международного права соответствует создание комбинированной «чикагской триады» США и НАТО, утверждённой на саммите НАТО в Чикаго в 2012 году в виде ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и тяжёлых видов обычных вооружений у рубежей России и других государств, то есть в качестве средств «передового базирования»?

Именно Соединённые Штаты, выйдя из Договора по ПРО и других международных соглашений в сфере контроля над ядерными вооружениями, например, из Договора о ликвидации РСМД, Договора по открытому небу и «иранской ядерной сделки», отказавшись от ратификации Договора о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний, понизили уровень стратегической стабильности и безопасности в мире. Американское тактическое ядерное оружие, находящееся на европейском континенте с середины пятидесятых годов, вполне способное решать и стратегические ядерные задачи, является прямым нарушением первой статьи Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия.

Таким образом, именно на Соединённых Штатах уже многие десятилетия лежит колоссальная двойная правовая и моральная «ядерная ответственность».

Первая - за создание первыми и использование первыми ядерного оружия против гражданского населения.

Вторая - за последовательное блокирование процесса контроля над ядерными вооружениями и их распространение в мире.

Автор: Владимир Козин, член-корреспондент РАВН и РАЕН. Источник: еженедельник: "Звезда".

Ядерные боезаряды США «W 76-2» повышают риск применения ядерного оружия

 
 
Государственный департамент США продолжает заваливать мировую общественность своими «докладами» по проблематике контроля над вооружениями и откровенными заявлениями о возможности применения американского ядерного оружия. В период деятельности администрации Дональда Трампа количество оснований для его применения достигло рекордного уровня: до четырнадцати различных вариантов. Все они перечислены в «Обзоре ядерной политики» Соединенных Штатов 2018 года, который представляет собой открытую часть действующей американской ядерной доктрины.
 
23 апреля этого года, а по московскому времени 24 апреля, под заголовком «Укрепляя ядерное сдерживание и уменьшая риски применения ядерного оружия: дополнительный боезаряд малой мощности подводных лодок» американское дипломатическое ведомство обнародовало  очередное изыскание из ранее объявленной им серии материалов, объединенных под общим названием «Контроль над вооружениями и исследовательские разработки в сфере международной безопасности». Анализ первого доклада, представленного в этой рубрике под заголовком «Новый подход» США к контролю над вооружениями … .», был опубликован на сайте «Инфорос» 29 апреля с.г.).
 
В новом докладе под «дополнительным боезарядом малой мощности подводных лодок» понимаются ядерные боезаряды «W 76-2», которые американские Стратегические ядерные силы стали устанавливать на межконтинентальные БРПЛ «Трайдент II (D5) атомных подводных ракетоносцев класса «Огайо».  Первым таким ракетоносцем, на который были доставлены ядерные боезаряды «W 76-2», стала ПЛАРБ «Теннесси» с бортовым номером «SSBN-734», которая, по данным британской «Гардиан», вышла на боевое патрулирование в Атлантической океан в конце прошлого года, уже оснащенная такими боезарядами. В феврале текущего года это обстоятельство подтвердил и официальный Вашингтон. «Теннесси» приписана к базе стратегических подводных ракетоносцев «Кингс Бэй», находящейся в штате Джорджия. 
 
Первый ядерный боезаряд «W 76-2» был изготовлен в феврале прошлого года. С учетом того, что их общее количество может превысить 50 штук, то это означает, что все из имеющихся в арсенале СНВ США 14 ПЛАРБ класса «Огайо» могут быть оснащены такими боезарядами, которые имеют мощность в пределах 5 килотонн. Их применение предусмотрено в «Обзоре ядерной политики» 2018 года.
 
Стратегические ядерные силы США предполагают использовать ядерные боезаряды «W 76-2» против России и КНР, в неких «локальных» конфликтах, а также для «симметричного реагирования на ядерный удар извне с ядерными боезарядами малой мощности».
 
В частности, их использование против России обосновывается необходимостью противодействия некоей российской ядерной стратегии «эскалация с целью деэскалации», которая в ее ядерной доктрине полностью отсутствует. Применение «W 76-2» оправдывается также развертыванием Москвой и Пекином тактического ядерного оружия (ТЯО). Такой аргумент Вашингтона более чем странен, так как ТЯО России и КНР полностью находится на их территориях, в то время как ТЯО США складировано и на их континентальной части, и на европейском континенте. Причем, в последнем случае уже свыше 70 лет.
 
Естественно, что Москва не может не учитывать факт начавшегося и перспективного развертывания американской стороной боезарядов «W 76-2» на стратегических ядерных носителях. То обстоятельство, что такие боезаряды имеют мощность меньше, чем у существующих МБР и БРПЛ США, не меняет их стратегического предназначения по причине их доставки стратегическими носителями в виде БРПЛ, которые относятся не к ТЯО, а к СНВ. Дело в том, что согласно российско-американским договоренностям об ограничении и сокращении СНВ подобные системы включают ядерные боезаряды любой мощности, которые можно доставлять на межконтинентальные расстояния, то есть от 5500 км и дальше.
 
Российский МИД твердо и решительно отреагировал на доклад Государственного департамента США в поддержку развертывания ядерных боезарядов «W 76-2», а еще раньше – на оснащение ими американских ПЛАРБ. Москва заявила, что запуск БРПЛ с ядерным боезарядом любой мощности будет воспринят как нападение с применением ядерного оружия. Было также добавлено, что в соответствии с российской Военной доктриной, где имеется «ядерный» раздел, подобные действия создадут основу для ответного применения ядерного оружия со стороны России.
 
Государственный департамент США поспешил ответить на такую реакцию Москвы, но, как часто бывает, исказил заявление российского внешнеполитического ведомства, приписав ему несуществующие слова об ответном применении ядерного оружия только за факт размещения «W 76-2» на американских ПЛАРБ. Ложным является и утверждение этого ведомства, что установленные на такие субмарины боезаряды этого типа не относятся к средствам «передового базирования». Относятся однозначно.
 
Установка на американских подводных ракетоносцах стратегического назначения боезарядов «W 76-2», а также включение в ядерную стратегию США формулировок об их применении под различными искусственными предлогами является дестабилизирующим фактором, подрывающим стратегическую стабильность и резко понижающим порог применения ядерного оружия Вашингтоном.
 
Это очень серьезные обстоятельства. Их вряд ли можно проигнорировать в программах военного строительства Российской Федерации и в ходе детальной проработки российской позиции относительно пролонгации Договора СНВ-3 на какой-то новый срок.
 
Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: ИнфоРос
 

 

 

 

Материал опубликован  в рамках спецпроекта ЦВПИ МГИМО 

Ядерные испытания в США: три признака возобновления

Складывается довольно уверенное впечатление, что Вашингтон может возобновить ядерные испытания, от проведения которых он воздерживался почти 28 лет. Последний подземный взрыв ядерного устройства был проведен на ядерном полигоне в штате Невада в сентябре 1992 года.

Характерными признаками движения в этом направлении является череда определенных событий и обстоятельств, которые имели место в Соединенных Штатах, в особенности начиная с 2018 года.

Первое. Определенным практическим признаком движения в этом направлении является заметная активизация обсуждения такого вопроса на весьма высоком военно-политическом уровне в Вашингтоне, которое состоялось в середине мая этого года. Как свидетельствуют американские СМИ, оно было целенаправленным.

Второе. Подготовка к этим «экспериментам» стала обеспечиваться масштабным дезинформационным прикрытием, призванным отвести нелицеприятный огонь критики от Соединенных Штатов на тот случай, если они вознамерятся пойти на реальные подземные испытания ядерных взрывных устройств.

Наконец, третье: политико-правовой основой для возобновления таких испытаний является нынешняя наступательная ядерная стратегия США, принятая нынешней американской администрацией в феврале того же года, которая предопределяет возможность расконсервации названного полигона.

Особенности проявления трех признаков целенаправленных приготовлений Вашингтона к таким испытаниям заключаются в следующем.

По данным информированной газеты «Вашингтон пост», тема возобновления ядерных испытаний на невадском полигоне была обсуждена на закрытом совещании высокопоставленных представителей «высших органов национальной безопасности», которое состоялось 15 мая текущего года. Судя по поступающей информации, подобный обмен мнениями названных представителей будет продолжен.

Помимо разъяснений, что повестка дня таких дискуссий  касается именно проблематики возобновления ядерных испытаний, высказывается предположение, что американское военно-политическое руководство хотело бы с их помощью подтолкнуть Пекин стать участником каких-то будущих переговоров по сокращению ядерных вооружений в составе США, России и Китая, идею проведения которых отстаивает Дональд Трамп, несмотря на решительный отказ китайской стороны – в основном из-за пятикратного дисбаланса между ядерными арсеналами США и КНР в пользу первых. Также отмечается, что своими разговорами о проведении взрывов на невадском полигоне в Вашингтоне хотели бы продемонстрировать Москве и Пекину, что своими близкими по времени экспериментами Соединенные Штаты рассчитывают в целом обеспечить себе благоприятную переговорную позицию на таких трехсторонних переговорах.

Национальному управлению ядерной безопасности и Министерству энергетики, которые в пределах своих полномочий отвечают за разработку, производство, безопасность и надежность ядерного оружия, поручено провести необходимые подготовительные работы в штате Невада и провести ядерные испытания, «если об этом будет принято соответствующее решение». Немаловажно напомнить, что названный «ядерный обзор» безапелляционно закрепил позицию президента Дональда Трампа: Соединенные Штаты не будут ратифицировать Договор о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний (ДВЗЯИ), который был подписан ими еще в сентябре 1996 года, то есть в тот год, когда он был официально отрыт для подписания.

Американская пропагандистская машина уже несколько месяцев продолжает «наводить тень на плетень», пытаясь через свои СМИ голословно обвинить  Россию и КНР в том, что они, дескать,  нарушили некий  «нулевой стандарт по мощности ядерных испытаний», когда провели подземные или иные испытания ядерных взрывных устройств «чрезвычайно малой мощности». Подобные обвинения были отражены в очередном годовом докладе государственного департамента США о выполнении соглашений в сфере контроля над вооружениями, который был выпущен в апреле этого года. Закономерен вопрос: где и когда были проведены такие российские или китайские испытания? Естественно, что никаких доказательств в поддержку такого заявления Вашингтон не предъявил. Не подтвердили эту сказку и сейсмологические станции, имеющиеся во многих государства мира. А Москва и Пекин с понятным возмущением опровергли очередную американскую газетную «утку».

Действующая ядерная стратегия США в своей открытой части, названной «Обзор ядерной политики Соединенных Штатов Америки», предусматривает «вскрытие» невадского ядерного полигона с целью возобновления на нем испытаний новых ядерных взрывных устройств для оснащения боезарядов нового поколения. Они будут устанавливаться на ракетно-ядерные носители полностью обновляемой стратегической ядерной триады, к созданию которой американская сторона уже приступила. Как зафиксировано в этой ядерной стратегии, «… Соединенные Штаты должны сохранять готовность к возобновлению ядерных испытаний, в случае необходимости, с целью ответа на сильные технологические или геополитические вызовы».

Замеченные приготовления к возобновлению ядерных испытаний в США вызвало критическую реакцию в различных странах мира, в том числе и в американском экспертном сообществе. «Это было бы приглашение другим странам, обладающим ядерным оружием, последовать этому примеру», – заявил, например, исполнительный директор некоммерческой американской Ассоциации по контролю над вооружениями Дэрил Кимбалл. По его мнению, такой шаг стал бы «началом беспрецедентной гонки ядерных вооружений» и сорвал бы переговоры с северокорейским лидером, «который, возможно, больше не будет чувствовать себя обязанным соблюдать мораторий на ядерные испытания».

Возобновление ядерных испытаний Вашингтоном, что может однозначно интерпретироваться как его фактическое нежелание ратифицировать ДВЗЯИ, закроет дорогу к его вступлению в силу. Дело в том, что этот договор, пользующийся значительной поддержкой в мире (подписан 184 и ратифицирован 168 странами), может начать действовать только после его ратификации всеми 44 поименно названными государствами-участниками, в том числе и Соединенными Штатами. Весьма вероятно, что после приведения  невадского полигона  в «испытательную готовность» и подрыва там ядерных устройств не ратифицировавшие договор государства, среди которых есть и обладатели ядерного оружия, продолжат придерживаться отрицательной позиции по названной проблеме. Что касается России, то она подписала ДВЗЯИ в сентябре 1996 года и ратифицировала его в июне 2000 года.

Известно, что нынешняя американская администрация занимает  в целом негативную точку зрения в отношении 13 двусторонних и многосторонних договоров в сфере контроля над вооружениями, в том числе по семи договорам с области контроля над ядерными вооружениями. Среди них значатся: Договор СНВ-3, Договор о нераспространении ядерного оружия и «президентские инициативы» 1991-1992 годов с Россией о добровольном сокращении некоторых видов ядерных вооружений, которые нарушаются США; Договор о ликвидации РСМД и «иранская ядерная сделка», денонсированные ими в одностороннем порядке. В этом списке также фигурируют ДВЗЯИ, который они отказываются ратифицировать, а также Соглашение о предотвращении инцидентов в открытом море за внешним пределом территориальных вод и в воздушном пространстве над ним, который Вашингтон не желает распространить на подводные лодки, находящиеся в подводном положении, в том числе и на ядерные.

Как отмечалось в заявлении официального представителя МИД России 28 мая, не исключается, что Вашингтон таким образом готовит общественное мнение для того, чтобы отозвать свою подпись под ДВЗЯИ – одним из важнейших документов в области нераспространения ядерного оружия.

С другой стороны, США действительно делают значительный упор на ядерные силы в своей глобальной военной политике, не забывая при этом и другие направления в своем наращиваемом военном потенциале.

Все эти обстоятельства не могут быть проигнорированы при оценке общего подхода Соединенных Штатов к ракетно-ядерной проблематике и степени их готовности к проявлению сдержанности в названной сфере. В частности, в данном контексте должны быть учтены их приготовления к возобновлению ими ядерных испытаний и сохранение тактического ядерного оружия в пяти зарубежных странах, активизация военной деятельности с использованием носителей СНВ (ПЛАРБ и тяжелых бомбардировщиков)  и принятие на вооружение новых видов ядерных боезарядов воздушного и морского, а в перспективе и наземного базирования. И, разумеется, должны приниматься во внимание все пять ключевых военно-стратегических установок нынешней американской администрации: стратегия национальной безопасности и обороны, а также ядерная, противоракетная и военно-космическая доктрины.

Автор: Владимир Козин - член-корреспондент Российской Академии военных наук, ведущий эксперт МГИМО МИД России

 

 

 

 

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Ядерный апокалипсис явно стал ближе. Готовы ли США применить ядерное оружие?..

 

Семь факторов, ведущих к ядерной войне

За последние десять лет возможности развязывания ограниченной и даже глобальной ядерной войны резко возросли. На это обращают внимание многие  государственные и общественные деятели, эксперты. Риск применения ядерной войны достиг наивысшей точки после окончания Второй мировой войны, заявила в мае этого года директор Института исследований проблем разоружения (UNIDIR) Рената Дван.  Это справедливое суждение. Ядерный апокалипсис явно стал ближе, чем, например, пять лет назад.

В минутах «до конца света»

Не случайно, что стрелки Часов Судного дня максимально приблизились к полуночи - к опасной точке ядерного Армагеддона: с 24 января этого года они показывают 23 часа и 58 минут.

Это было, было…

Это стало повторением ситуации, когда в 1953 году США и Советский Союз испытали термоядерное оружие. Так было в 1962 году в период Карибского кризиса, который был инициирован не СССР, а Соединёнными Штатами, которые до него инициативно разместили свои ядерные ракеты класса «Юпитер» на территории Италии и Турции, нацеленные на многие объекты тогдашнего Советского Союза.  В трёх минутах «до конца света» человечество находилось дважды: в 1984-м и в 2015 году, после того как президенты США провозгласили программы ведения «звёздных войн» (Рональд Рейган - в 1983 году), а также существенную модернизацию стратегической ядерной триады и усиление американской глобальной системы ПРО (Барак Обама - в 2009 году).

Во время презентации обновлённого времени на Часах Судного дня 24 января этого года было распространено заявление американских продолжателей этого виртуального проекта. Они заявили, что в современном мире возникла «новая анормальность», вытекающая из неконтролируемого развития ракетно-ядерных вооружений. Но проблема кроется не только в «неконтролируемом» развитии ракетно-ядерных вооружений.

Она также лежит в готовности и желании Соединённых Штатов применить ядерное оружие, в особенности при нынешней американской администрации. Именно идеи и концепции вызывают применение ядерного оружия, а не само ядерное оружие - оно не может думать и принимать решения.

Главной причиной расширения возможностей и желания начать ядерную войну  является резкое и беспрецедентное понижение порога применения ядерного оружия ведущей ядерной державой - Соединёнными Штатами Америки.

Об этом свидетельствуют следующие семь конкретных факторов, которые ведут к глобальной катастрофе, если не принять радикальных мер противодействия.

Конкретно

Фактор первый

Если действующая ядерная доктрина применения ядерного оружия Российской Федерацией по-прежнему имеет только 2 основания для его использования (это применение против неё оружия массового поражения, а также обычных видов вооружений, но с оговоркой, если в результате этого под угрозу будет поставлено само существование Российского государства), то ядерная доктрина Барака Обамы предусматривала 6 таких оснований. Нынешняя же ядерная доктрина Дональда Трампа от 2 февраля 2018 года («2018 Nuclear Posture Review») уже содержит 14 таких оснований. Среди них имеются явно абсурдные положения, которые позволяют нынешней администрации произвольно толковать положения о применении ядерного оружия - всего их 8, например, это может произойти при появлении «технологических неожиданностей» или в случае появления «неопределённых вызовов».

Фактор второй

Он заключается в том, что современная ядерная стратегия США квалифицируется как «безусловное наступательное ядерное сдерживание», имеющее широкий спектр стратегических установок различного содержания.

Это «расширенное ядерное сдерживание», то есть раскрытие «ядерного зонтика над 32 государствами - членами НАТО и внеблоковыми союзниками США. Это «концепция "эскалация в целях деэскалации"», то есть наращивание возможностей применения ядерного оружия с целью деэскалации конфликтов с применением обычных видов вооружений. Это размещение тяжёлых стратегических бомбардировщиков межконтинентальной дальности и самолётов «двойного назначения» среднего радиуса действия с ядерным оружием на борту в зонах «передового базирования» вблизи границ с Россией, КНР и Северной Кореей.

Ядерную стратегию Штатов подкрепляют сохраняющиеся соглашения США «о разделении ядерной ответственности» со странами - членами НАТО, в том числе с теми, которые не имеют национального ядерного оружия. Это размещение ТЯО США в Европе и в азиатской части Турции, которое получит новые корректирующие авиабомбы В-61-12 и новые средства их доставки в виде истребителей-бомбардировщиков F-35 и нового тяжёлого стратегического бомбардировщика В-21 Рейдер. Не прекращается круглосуточная и круглогодичная операция НАТО «Балтийское воздушное патрулирование» (Baltic Air Policing Operation) в воздушном пространстве трёх государств Балтии с использованием самолётов «двойного назначения», которые могут нести ядерное оружие.

Особенностью этого фактора является также  то, что в настоящее время в странах НАТО происходит трансформация военных учений.

Если раньше учения Трансатлантического союза с имитацией использования ядерных арсеналов и учения с задействованием обычных видов вооружений проводились отдельно, то сейчас учения с привлечением обычных вооружений, как правило, завершаются с условным использованием ядерного оружия. Ядерные государства НАТО стали всё чаще приглашать на такие учения высокопоставленных гражданских лиц, участвующих в принятии важных национальных решений. Складывается впечатление: всё больше людей готовят к неизбежности ядерной войны.

Фактор третий

Он заключается в том, что все американские президенты с начала ядерной эры имели и до сих пор имеют единоличное право применения ядерного оружия в первом превентивном и упреждающем ударе, то есть располагают возможностью использовать ядерное оружие любого вида, стратегического и тактического, исключительно по своему усмотрению без согласования с конгрессом США и без объявления войны какому-то государству или группе государств, в отношении которых такое оружие будет применено.

Эта концепция быстрого применения ядерного оружия усугубляется ещё и тем, что любой президент США  может довести свой единоличный приказ об использовании американского ядерного оружия до Стратегического ядерного командования США в течение 3-5 минут, а оно сможет обеспечить реальное применение трёх компонентов стратегической ядерной триады, находящихся в состоянии полной боевой готовности в любое время суток, в пределах 3-12 минут.

США до сих пор придерживаются концепции «запуск по предупреждению» (launch-on-warning), которая предусматривает применение ядерного оружия практически сразу после сигнала о запуске МБР или БРПЛ другим государством, то есть тогда, когда его ядерные боевые блоки ещё не достигли американской территории.

Фактор четвёртый

С 2026 года в США начнётся создание новой «триллионной» стратегической ядерной триады. На неё будет израсходовано от 1,2 трлн до 1,7 трлн долларов. Ни одно государство в мире не может выложить столько денежных средств на усиление ядерного потенциала. Огромные денежные средства предполагается выделить и на модернизацию тактического ядерного оружия.

Этот фактор  раньше отсутствовал в ядерных доктринах США, но теперь о нём говорят открыто. Ему уделено особое внимание в ядерной доктрине Трампа «Nuclear Posture Review-2018» - это возможность применения ядерных боезарядов малой мощности - с мощностью от 5 килотонн и ниже, что примерно в три раза меньше ядерного боезаряда авиабомбы, сброшенной американцами на Хиросиму.

Применение таких боезарядов обосновывается в США некими «гуманитарными» мотивами, в основе которых лежит неприемлемое утверждение, что в результате их применения произойдёт меньшее радиоактивное заражение местности, чем в случае использования ядерных боезарядов большей мощности. Но станет ли от этого легче тем людям, которые всё равно пострадают от «маломощных» ядерных боезарядов?

Фактор пятый

Это возможность возобновления ядерных испытаний американской стороной на полигоне в штате Невада. Такой шаг предусматривается в ядерной доктрине Трампа: на стр. 63 этой стратегии исключается возможность ратификации ДВЗЯИ и одновременно обозначена вероятность возобновления подземных ядерных испытаний на полигоне в штате Невада.

Вашингтон недавно пытался припрятать готовящееся собственное возобновление подземных ядерных испытаний голословным обвинением России в возобновлении ядерных испытаний.

Как публично заявил директор разведывательного управления Пентагона генерал-лейтенант Роберт Эшли, «наше понимание разработки ядерных вооружений заставляет нас считать, что деятельность России в области проведения испытаний способствовала бы совершенствованию её ядерного потенциала».  Витиеватая абракадабра - это с одной стороны. И одновременно свидетельство в полной профнепригодности этого генерала, с другой.

Отвечая на прямой вопрос: «Так были ли испытания?»,  этот военный разведчик вообще промямлил несуразицу, не подкреплённую никакими объективными данными.

Россия соблюдает свой добровольный мораторий на ядерные испытания, введённый ещё осенью 1990 года прошлого века. С этого времени и до сих пор на её ядерных полигонах царит полнейшая тишина.

Вызывает глубокое разочарование, что Вашингтон отверг весьма простое предложение Москвы: вновь повторить формулировку Горбачева-Рейгана о том, что ядерная война не может быть развязана, поскольку в ней не будет победителей. Любой вид ядерной войны - независимо от того, будет ли она ограниченной или тотальной - будет иметь катастрофические последствия для всей земной цивилизации с уничтожением огромных территорий и многочисленными жертвами среди жителей нашей планеты. Их будет гораздо больше, чем при бомбардировках Хиросимы и Нагасаки.

Фактор шестой

Он проявляется в том, что американские ракетно-ядерные средства прикрываются глобальной системой ПРО, которая уже насчитывает свыше 1.800 ракет-перехватчиков стратегического назначения и постоянно наращивается без каких бы то ни было договорно-правовых ограничений после одностороннего выхода Вашингтона из Договора по ПРО в 2002 году.

Опасность развязывания ядерной войны усугубляется тем, что постепенно меняется пропорция между стратегическими оборонительными вооружениями, то есть ракетами-перехватчиками стратегической системы ПРО, и стратегическими наступательными ядерными вооружениями.

При соотношении 3:1 между ракетами-перехватчиками и носителями стратегического ядерного оружия (по 800 оперативно развёрнутых и не развёрнутых носителей стратегических ядерных вооружений у России и США) опасность развязывания ядерной войны может резко возрасти. В настоящее время это соотношение составляет 2,25:1, или в конкретных показателях -  1.800:800.

Логично предположить, что чем выше эта пропорция с сильным перевесом в пользу ракет-перехватчиков, тем больше соблазнов будет у США использовать ядерное оружие в первом ударе, прикрывшись «противоракетным щитом» от естественного удара возмездия.

Последний, седьмой  фактор

К настоящему времени США открыто продемонстрировали негативное отношение к 13 международным договорам в сфере контроля над вооружениями, 6 таких договорных актов из названного списка имеют прямое или косвенное отношение к ядерному оружию. Это нарушение Вашингтоном Договора о сокращении стратегических наступательных вооружений (Договора СНВ-3), Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и меньшей дальности, Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия. Это односторонний выход  США из Соглашения по иранской ядерной программе. Это отказ Вашингтона от ратификации Договора о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний и неполное выполнение им Соглашения по оружейному плутонию.

Огромное количество нарушений Соединёнными Штатами наблюдается именно в отношении ДРСМД: за последние 20 лет они 117 раз нарушили этот договор, когда при проверке эффективности системы ПРО они широко использовали шесть типов ракет средней и меньшей дальности, запрещённые им.

Эти данные имеются на сайте управления по ПРО Пентагона и в документах конгресса США. За это время Россия не совершила никаких нарушений Договора 1987 года.

Есть ещё более глубокие опасности, чем ядерное оружие, как таковое. Это оперативное объединение ракетно-ядерных, противоракетных и обычных вооружений в виде «чикагской триады», созданной на саммите НАТО в мае 2012 года. Это также размытие боевых особенностей между наступательными и оборонительными вооружениями. Наконец, это появление ещё двух видов гонок вооружений: к ядерной добавилась противоракетная гонка вооружений, и замаячила гонка космических вооружений.

Утратим бессмертие?..

Существует философская максима: «С созданием ядерного оружия род человеческий утратил бессмертие». Но если нельзя уничтожить ядерное оружие в короткие сроки всеми ядерными государствами, то почему нельзя ограничить возможности его применения? Ясно, что нужны практические шаги, направленные на предотвращение понижения порога применения ядерного оружия Соединёнными Штатами.

Автор: Владимир Козин, Источник: Еженедельник “Звезда”

Ядерный шантаж: чем грозит новая стратегия Трампа

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО Владимир Козин в программе “Теория заговора” на канале “Звезда”.

В США заканчивается разработка новой ядерной программы. Предварительный вариант документа уже просочился в интернет. Теперь сотни американских ракет могут быть запущены при малейшей угрозе Соединённым Штатам. А вся власть сосредотачивается в руках президента Трампа. США отказываются сокращать собственный ядерный потенциал и, наоборот, намерены его нарастить! При этом Соединенные Штаты проверяют своего президента... на вменяемость. Для чего США нужна возможность локальной атомной войны?

Эфир от 23 января 2017г.

 

 

أسلحة نووية إلى بيلاروس: تصعيد أم رد بالمثل؟

يحق لواشنطن ما لا يحق لغيرها.. هل تطبّق الإدارة المتحدة هذا المبدأ وهي تنتقد روسيا على قرارها نشر أسلحة نووية تكتيكية في بيلاروس؟

“Kinzhaling” the foe

 
 
On the morning of March 20, 2022, during an official briefing by a representative of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, it was announced that the Kinzhal (in English Dagger) missile system was used to destroy an ammunition depot in the Ivano-Frankovsk region and a fuel storage base in the Nikolayev region of Ukraine. Later, this information was confirmed by representatives of the Pentagon and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is impossible to deny this fact.
 
Thus, it became the first documented combat use of the newest Russian missiles of this class.
 
First, it should be noted that in official statements by representatives of the Ministries of Defense of Russia, the United States and Ukraine, made in connection with the use of the Kinzhal, it was emphasized that the new missile was used for critically important and, most importantly, having a high level of protection, targets. The one was located in the village of Delyatin.
 
The ammunition depot in the village of Delyatin is a former Soviet storage of nuclear warheads and missiles, constructed in a rocky area and additionally reinforced with a multi-meter layer of reinforced concrete. It contained Ukrainian aviation weapons and combat units for the Tochka-U ballistic missile systems each tipped with 15,000 splinters, which have been repeatedly used against civilians of Donbass, including in March 2022.
 
Conventional missiles, including the previously used Kalibr missile, would not be able to destroy this highly protected targets with a single strike.
 
Kinzhal was able. And very accurately.
 
The second point. Currently, Russia is conducting a military operation not against international terrorist organizations, but against the armed forces of Ukraine and groups of aggressive neo-nationalists merged with them, which in various military ratings were among the top five best armies in Europe. In addition, American and European military specialists are operating on the Ukrainian side, using real-time information from national intelligence agencies, as well as modern types of Western weapons. Under these conditions, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation had the opportunity to test new weapons in conditions of real enemy counteraction.
 
Thirdly, the use of the latest Kinzhal missile system was carried out taking into account the widespread reports about the likely supply to Ukraine from the countries of the transatlantic Alliance of air defense systems from the old Soviet design to modern systems in the form of S-300, which are in service with some European countries.
 
It is quite obvious that, anticipating the implementation of such plans, the Russian military leadership is already developing effective tactics to combat enemy anti-aircraft missile systems without unnecessary risk to its aviation. The high tactical and technical characteristics of Russian hypersonic missiles in terms of speed and maneuvering ensure that any air defense and missile defense systems, including those of American and European production, are unlikely to ensure their interception.
 
The Russian Ministry of Defense clarified that the use of the Kinzhal hypersonic missile with pin-point accuracy was carried out from a distance of more than 1,000 kilometers, and its flight time to the target was less than 10 minutes. The missile was equipped with a conventional warhead.
 
It can be assumed that the use of the Kinzhal missile at a target with the highest degree of protection will send a clear signal to the military and political leadership of the United States and its NATO allies that Russia has effective means to destroy key elements of the enemy's state and military control system – regardless of their location and engineering and technical security and protection.
 
It should be noted that the Russian high-precision hypersonic long-range weapons have confirmed their high reliability and effectiveness in disabling and destroying the military industry and infrastructure of Ukraine, which has already committed armed aggression against the citizens of the DPR and LPR three times over the past eight years, during which over 14 thousand civilians were killed and 34 thousand wounded. The brightest examples of the use of promising Russian weapons of new developments are the successful strikes on the Yavorovsky training ground, the Kharkov Tractor Plant and the fuel storage base in the Mykolaiv region of Ukraine. All these facilities have been used to launch aggressions against innocent civilians – the citizens of Ukraine and Donbass.
 
To destroy tactical targets in the interests of providing fire support for offensive actions of troops, in massive and concentrated fire strikes, conventional means of fire destruction are used. They are relatively cheap, simple and their production has been mastered for a long time, and their use with the help of the latest sighting and navigation systems of bomber aviation allows achieving increased accuracy comparable to high-precision weapons and eliminating possible errors when striking in densely populated areas, which was confirmed during the military anti-terrorist operation in the Syrian Arab Republic.
 
It is also important that Russia has enough reserves of such funds for many years of potential high-intensity military operations if our country is forced to resort to these measures to protect its national interests and to ensure strategic stability.
 
Written by Vladimir P. Kozin - Corresponding Member of the Academy of Military Sciences of Russia

“«Азовсталь» сдаётся”

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин принял  участие в стриме ТВ студии «Вечерний абзац».

«Азовсталь» потихоньку сдаётся. Что Россия будет делать с пленными «азовцами»?

Ведущие Игорь Кольке и Мария Иваткина.

Эфир от 17 мая 2022г.

“Администрация США зашла слишком далеко в «накручивании» ядерных вооружений”

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин принял участие в дискуссии с председателем Комитета Совета Федерации ФС РФ по международным делам К.И. Косачёвым в ходе его онлайн-лекции на тему «Постпандемический мир: порядок или право?», организованной Фондом поддержки публичной дипломатии имени А.М. Горчакова 27 мая 2020г. 

В.П. Козин предложил довести через Комитет до мировой общественности три конкретные  цифры: США негативно относятся к 13 международным договорам в сфере контроля над вооружениями, в том числе к 7 договорам, имеющим отношение к ядерному оружию; нынешняя ядерная стратегия США имеет 14 оснований для применения ядерного оружия (это рекорд) и они нарушили Договор РСМД 117 раз за 20 лет его существования. 

Источник: Телеканал Совета Федерации РФ “ВМЕСТЕ-РФ”

“Американцы больше всего боятся неопределённости с нашей стороны”

 

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “ОТРажение” на канале ОТР.

Эфир от 22 февраля 2023г.

 

“Неслыханное оружие” Дональда Трампа

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в программе “Открытый эфир” на канале “Звезда”.

Американский президент похвастался, что у него есть  «неслыханное оружие», которого якобы нет ни у России, ни у Китая. Издание “Popular Mechanics” со ссылкой на свои источники нашло объект восхищения американского президента - это ядерные боеголовки W76-2. На что они способны и на какие носители их уже установил Пентагон? Публицист и военный эксперт Владимир Козин изучил директивы военного ведомства США.

Эфир от 16 сентября 2020 г.

Источник: телеканал “Звезда”

“Преподнести по пачке печенья и банке варенья за необъявленную войну и объявленную агрессию”

 

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин о киевском вояже Байдена

Грядут тяжелые годы. Байден нарисовал Украине мрачное будущее. Он прибыл в Киев, чтобы подвести итоги противостояния. Итоги, если судить по количеству выбитой бронетехники и личного состава ВСУ, неутешительные.

Программа "ОТРажение-3". Эфир от 21 февраля.

Источник: ОТР

 

“Целью СВО становится предотвращение агрессии стран НАТО”

Ведущий эксперт ЦВПИ МГИМО В.П. Козин в эфире телеканала РБК.

美国坚持退出《美苏消除两国中程和中短程导弹条约》

美国今年2月初正式宣布暂停参加1987年 签订的《美苏消除两国中程和中短程导 弹条约》(DIST),然后将从今年8月2日 开始全面退出。美国将继续,由他们单 方面发起这一进程,撕毁这项重要的条约,根据该条约的要求成功地在1991年 夏天,销毁掉了两类中程和短程核导弹。

在这之前,“条约”的各 方面似乎都令华盛顿 满意。根据条约的要 求,苏联已比美国销毁了两倍 的核武器载体数量。但是现在 事态正在按照白宫设计的完全 不同的方式在发展。

现在,美国解释他要退出条 约的决定时,会拿出俄罗斯“不 遵守”条约这一原因,指责俄罗 斯造和部署新的代号为9M729 的地面巡航导弹。

但直到今天美方也未就此事提供任何证据。莫斯科在过去五年里与美国官员举行的约三 十次正式磋商期间,向华盛顿 提出的众多解释也不能令其满 意。

美国早就拒绝了俄罗斯的通过透明的措施解决实施1987年条约问题的倡议。华盛顿没有表现出继续进行对话的意愿,并且毫无根据地向俄方提出了

一个形式奇怪及内容不可接受的最后通牒,其实质是要求销毁地面巡航导弹9M729。 己就没有违反该条约吗?属于“ 顽固不化”的事实证明:违反 过,而且还不止一次。 在过去的将近20年时间里, 五角大楼在测试美国全球导弹 防御系统的有效性时,曾使用 过117次中程和短程靶标导弹。 这些是美国专门制造的六种变 体的靶标导弹,用于同时解决 两项任务,即测试导弹防御系 统的拦截导弹,以及中程和短 程导弹。

美国军方首次使用“反导弹盾牌”拦截导弹,用于拦截属于条约术语定义的短程靶标导弹,日期是1999年10月2日。也就是说,差不多20年前。

单方面退出了该条约。如果到目前为止美国都未能证明俄罗斯“违反”条约,那么美国退出该条约的真正动机是什么?

目前,似乎美国领导层有几个动机。 第一个,美国希望在欧洲、亚洲和亚太地区建立和部署新型核移动地基中程巡航和弹道导弹,目的是阻止所谓的“俄罗斯、 中国、伊朗和朝鲜的导弹威胁”。

第二个,华盛顿打算重复北约在1979年12月通过的“双重决定”所造成的危险局面,当时北约批准在一些欧洲国家储存846枚美国中程核导弹,导致美国/北约与苏联之间发生了严重的核导弹危机。

第三个,美国试图让俄罗斯单方面同意销毁系列短程、中程、甚至洲际范围的现代弹道导弹和巡航导弹,以及不属于1987年条约定义范围的有发展前景的高超音速综合体,这样华盛顿就不会退出条约。

第四个,美国目前的军事政治领导层希望通过自己主动退出条约,使并不希望成为参与者的中国参与中程和短程导弹限制问题的新对话。

第五个,故意使核导弹领域的局势紧张化,白宫希望向其北约盟国施加压力,使他们首先将自己的军费开支提升至占其国内生产总值的2%,最终达到占其国内生产总值的4%。

显然,《美苏消除两国中程和中短程导弹条约》的失败将对国际安全和全球稳定产生最负面的影响。这意味,在几个领域可能会开始军备竞赛,例如核导弹、反导弹和太空领域。整个军备控制系统将受到进一步的损害,即使没有这种情况,华盛顿也消极看待早先签署的或作为国际方案推出的十二个条约和协定。美国退出该条约,还给维护核武器的不扩散制度和进一步限制核武器的前景带来了严重威胁。

但美国显然不关心这类前景。可惜!在这种情况下,国际局势紧张化的全部责任完全在于华盛顿及其北约盟国。

弗拉基米尔·科津(俄罗斯科学院、俄罗斯自然科学院通讯院士,俄罗斯外交部 国立莫斯科国际关系学院 军事政治研究中心主任专家)

来源  “Info SCO: Shanghai Cooperation Organization magazine”

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